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Dec 30

Mechanistic Interpretability of RNNs emulating Hidden Markov Models

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) provide a powerful approach in neuroscience to infer latent dynamics in neural populations and to generate hypotheses about the neural computations underlying behavior. However, past work has focused on relatively simple, input-driven, and largely deterministic behaviors - little is known about the mechanisms that would allow RNNs to generate the richer, spontaneous, and potentially stochastic behaviors observed in natural settings. Modeling with Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) has revealed a segmentation of natural behaviors into discrete latent states with stochastic transitions between them, a type of dynamics that may appear at odds with the continuous state spaces implemented by RNNs. Here we first show that RNNs can replicate HMM emission statistics and then reverse-engineer the trained networks to uncover the mechanisms they implement. In the absence of inputs, the activity of trained RNNs collapses towards a single fixed point. When driven by stochastic input, trajectories instead exhibit noise-sustained dynamics along closed orbits. Rotation along these orbits modulates the emission probabilities and is governed by transitions between regions of slow, noise-driven dynamics connected by fast, deterministic transitions. The trained RNNs develop highly structured connectivity, with a small set of "kick neurons" initiating transitions between these regions. This mechanism emerges during training as the network shifts into a regime of stochastic resonance, enabling it to perform probabilistic computations. Analyses across multiple HMM architectures - fully connected, cyclic, and linear-chain - reveal that this solution generalizes through the modular reuse of the same dynamical motif, suggesting a compositional principle by which RNNs can emulate complex discrete latent dynamics.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 29

Tides on Lava Worlds: Application to Close-in Exoplanets and the Early Earth-Moon System

Understanding the physics of planetary magma oceans has been the subject of growing efforts, in light of the increasing abundance of Solar system samples and extrasolar surveys. A rocky planet harboring such an ocean is likely to interact tidally with its host star, planetary companions, or satellites. To date, however, models of the tidal response and heat generation of magma oceans have been restricted to the framework of weakly viscous solids, ignoring the dynamical fluid behavior of the ocean beyond a critical melt fraction. Here we provide a handy analytical model that accommodates this phase transition, allowing for a physical estimation of the tidal response of lava worlds. We apply the model in two settings: The tidal history of the early Earth-Moon system in the aftermath of the giant impact; and the tidal interplay between short-period exoplanets and their host stars. For the former, we show that the fluid behavior of the Earth's molten surface drives efficient early Lunar recession to {sim} 25 Earth radii within 10^4{-} 10^5 years, in contrast with earlier predictions. For close-in exoplanets, we report on how their molten surfaces significantly change their spin-orbit dynamics, allowing them to evade spin-orbit resonances and accelerating their track towards tidal synchronization from a Gyr to Myr timescale. Moreover, we re-evaluate the energy budgets of detected close-in exoplanets, highlighting how the surface thermodynamics of these planets are likely controlled by enhanced, fluid-driven tidal heating, rather than vigorous insolation, and how this regime change substantially alters predictions for their surface temperatures.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 10, 2024

Analyzing Data Quality and Decay in Mega-Constellations: A Physics-Informed Machine Learning Approach

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 13

The Coupled Tidal Evolution of the Moons and Spins of Warm Exoplanets

Context: The Solar System giant planets harbour a wide variety of moons. Moons around exoplanets are plausibly similarly abundant, even though most of them are likely too small to be easily detectable with modern instruments. Moons are known to affect the long-term dynamics of the spin of their host planets; however, their influence on warm exoplanets (i.e.\ with moderately short periods of about 10 to 200~days), which undergo significant star-planet tidal dissipation, is still unclear. Aims: Here, we study the coupled dynamical evolution of exomoons and the spin dynamics of their host planets, focusing on warm exoplanets. Methods: Analytical criteria give the relevant dynamical regimes at play as a function of the system's parameters. Possible evolution tracks mostly depend on the hierarchy of timescales between the star-planet and the moon-planet tidal dissipations. We illustrate the variety of possible trajectories using self-consistent numerical simulations. Results: We find two principal results: i) Due to star-planet tidal dissipation, a substantial fraction of warm exoplanets naturally evolve through a phase of instability for the moon's orbit (the `Laplace plane' instability). Many warm exoplanets may have lost their moon(s) through this process. ii) Surviving moons slowly migrate inwards due to the moon-planet tidal dissipation until they are disrupted below the Roche limit. During their last migration stage, moons -- even small ones -- eject planets from their tidal spin equilibrium. Conclusions: The loss of moons through the Laplace plane instability may contribute to disfavour the detection of moons around close-in exoplanets. Moreover, moons (even those that have been lost) play a critical role in the final obliquities of warm exoplanets. Hence, the existence of exomoons poses a serious challenge in predicting the present-day obliquities of observed exoplanets.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 31

Is planetary inward migration responsible for GJ 504's fast rotation and bright X-ray luminosity? New constraints from eROSITA

The discovery of an increasing variety of exoplanets in very close orbits around their host stars raised many questions about how stars and planets interact, and to which extent host stars' properties may be influenced by the presence of close-by companions. Understanding how the evolution of stars is impacted by the interactions with their planets is fundamental to disentangle their intrinsic evolution from Star-Planet Interactions (SPI)-induced phenomena. GJ 504 is a promising candidate for a star that underwent strong SPI. Its unusually short rotational period (3.4 days), while being in contrast with what is expected by single-star models, could result from the inward migration of a close-by, massive companion, pushed starward by tides. Moreover, its brighter X-ray luminosity may hint at a rejuvenation of the dynamo process sustaining the stellar magnetic field, consequent to the SPI-induced spin-up. We aim to study the evolution of GJ 504 and establish whether by invoking the engulfment of a planetary companion we can better reproduce its rotational period and X-ray luminosity. We simulate the past evolution assuming two different scenarios: 'Star without close-by planet', 'Star with close-by planet'. In the second scenario, we investigate how inward migration and planetary engulfment driven by tides spin up the stellar surface and rejuvenate its dynamo. We compare our tracks with rotational period and X-ray data collected from the all-sky surveys of the ROentgen Survey with an Imaging Telescope Array (eROSITA) on board the Russian Spektrum-Roentgen-Gamma mission (SRG). Despite the very uncertain stellar age, we found that the second evolutionary scenario is in better agreement with the short rotational period and the bright X-ray luminosity of GJ 504, thus strongly favouring the inward migration scenario over the one in which close-by planets have no tidal impact on the star.

  • 7 authors
·
Jan 13

The S2 orbit and tidally disrupted binaries: indications for collisional depletion in the Galactic center

The properties of the stellar cluster surrounding Sagittarius A* can be assessed indirectly through the motion of the S-stars. Specifically, the current accuracy to which the prograde precession of the S2 star is measured allows to place significant constraints on the extended mass enclosed by its orbit. We suggest that high velocity destructive collisions (DCs) offer a natural mechanism for depleting the mass inside the S2 orbit, thus allowing to reconcile the measured precession and the existence of a dense stellar cluster. Such a solution is especially necessary when considering that stars are supplied to the inner part of the cluster by both dynamical relaxation and by stars being captured in tight orbits during tidal disruption of binaries. We use analytic arguments and results from simulations to demonstrate that in order to obtain a precession that is consistent with observations, collisional depletion is necessary if the capture rate is greater than a few 10^{-6} yr^{-1}. We also show that fluctuations arising from the finite number of stars cannot serve as an alternative to DCs for generating consistency with the observed S2 precession. We conclude that astrometric observations of the S-stars provide a meaningful indication that the inner part of our galactic center is shaped by collisional depletion, supporting the hypothesis that DCs occur in galactic nuclei at an astrophysically significant rate.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 10, 2024