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Oct 28

OpenFACADES: An Open Framework for Architectural Caption and Attribute Data Enrichment via Street View Imagery

Building properties, such as height, usage, and material composition, play a crucial role in spatial data infrastructures, supporting applications such as energy simulation, risk assessment, and environmental modeling. Despite their importance, comprehensive and high-quality building attribute data remain scarce in many urban areas. Recent advances have enabled the extraction and tagging of objective building attributes using remote sensing and street-level imagery. However, establishing a method and pipeline that integrates diverse open datasets, acquires holistic building imagery at scale, and infers comprehensive building attributes remains a significant challenge. Among the first, this study bridges the gaps by introducing OpenFACADES, an open framework that leverages multimodal crowdsourced data to enrich building profiles with both objective attributes and semantic descriptors through multimodal large language models. Our methodology proceeds in three major steps. First, we integrate street-level image metadata from Mapillary with OpenStreetMap geometries via isovist analysis, effectively identifying images that provide suitable vantage points for observing target buildings. Second, we automate the detection of building facades in panoramic imagery and tailor a reprojection approach to convert objects into holistic perspective views that approximate real-world observation. Third, we introduce an innovative approach that harnesses and systematically investigates the capabilities of open-source large vision-language models (VLMs) for multi-attribute prediction and open-vocabulary captioning in building-level analytics, leveraging a globally sourced dataset of 30,180 labeled images from seven cities. Evaluation shows that fine-tuned VLM excel in multi-attribute inference, outperforming single-attribute computer vision models and zero-shot ChatGPT-4o.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 1

Selection Function of Clusters in Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Data from Cross-Matching with South Pole Telescope Detections

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

  • 55 authors
·
Feb 18

On Calibration of Object Detectors: Pitfalls, Evaluation and Baselines

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

  • 4 authors
·
May 30, 2024

Promise and Peril: Stellar Contamination and Strict Limits on the Atmosphere Composition of TRAPPIST-1c from JWST NIRISS Transmission Spectra

Attempts to probe the atmospheres of rocky planets around M dwarfs present both promise and peril. While their favorable planet-to-star radius ratios enable searches for even thin secondary atmospheres, their high activity levels and high-energy outputs threaten atmosphere survival. Here, we present the 0.6--2.85\,mum transmission spectrum of the 1.1\,rm R_oplus, sim340\,K rocky planet TRAPPIST-1\,c obtained over two JWST NIRISS/SOSS transit observations. Each of the two spectra displays 100--500\,ppm signatures of stellar contamination. Despite being separated by 367\,days, the retrieved spot and faculae properties are consistent between the two visits, resulting in nearly identical transmission spectra. Jointly retrieving for stellar contamination and a planetary atmosphere reveals that our spectrum can rule out hydrogen-dominated, lesssim300times solar metallicity atmospheres with effective surface pressures down to 10\,mbar at the 3-sigma level. For high-mean molecular weight atmospheres, where O_2 or N_2 is the background gas, our spectrum disfavors partial pressures of more than sim10\,mbar for H_2O, CO, NH_3 and CH_4 at the 2-sigma level. Similarly, under the assumption of a 100\% H_2O, NH_3, CO, or CH_4 atmosphere, our spectrum disfavors thick, >1\,bar atmospheres at the 2-sigma level. These non-detections of spectral features are in line with predictions that even heavier, CO_2-rich, atmospheres would be efficiently lost on TRAPPIST-1\,c given the cumulative high-energy irradiation experienced by the planet. Our results further stress the importance of robustly accounting for stellar contamination when analyzing JWST observations of exo-Earths around M dwarfs, as well as the need for high-fidelity stellar models to search for the potential signals of thin secondary atmospheres.

  • 12 authors
·
Sep 28, 2024

A Diagnostic Kit for Optical Emission Lines Shaped by Accretion Disc Winds

Blueshifted absorption is the classic spectroscopic signature of an accretion disc wind in X-ray binaries and cataclysmic variables (CVs). However, outflows can also create pure emission lines, especially at optical wavelengths. Therefore, developing other outflow diagnostics for these types of lines is worthwhile. With this in mind, we construct a systematic grid of 3645 synthetic wind-formed H-alpha line profiles for CVs with the radiative transfer code SIROCCO. Our grid yields a variety of line shapes: symmetric, asymmetric, single- to quadruple-peaked, and even P-Cygni profiles. About 20% of these lines -- our `Gold' sample -- have strengths and widths consistent with observations. We use this grid to test a recently proposed method for identifying wind-formed emission lines based on deviations in the wing profile shape: the `excess equivalent width diagnostic diagram'. We find that our `Gold' sample can preferentially populate the suggested `wind regions' of this diagram. However, the method is highly sensitive to the adopted definition of the line profile `wing'. Hence, we propose a refined definition based on the full-width at half maximum to improve the interpretability of the diagnostic diagram. Furthermore, we define an approximate scaling relation for the strengths of wind-formed CV emission lines in terms of the outflow parameters. This relation provides a fast way to assess whether -- and what kind of -- outflow can produce an observed emission line. All our wind-based models are open-source and we provide an easy-to-use web-based tool to browse our full set of H-alpha spectral profiles.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 2

Unveiling the Truth: Exploring Human Gaze Patterns in Fake Images

Creating high-quality and realistic images is now possible thanks to the impressive advancements in image generation. A description in natural language of your desired output is all you need to obtain breathtaking results. However, as the use of generative models grows, so do concerns about the propagation of malicious content and misinformation. Consequently, the research community is actively working on the development of novel fake detection techniques, primarily focusing on low-level features and possible fingerprints left by generative models during the image generation process. In a different vein, in our work, we leverage human semantic knowledge to investigate the possibility of being included in frameworks of fake image detection. To achieve this, we collect a novel dataset of partially manipulated images using diffusion models and conduct an eye-tracking experiment to record the eye movements of different observers while viewing real and fake stimuli. A preliminary statistical analysis is conducted to explore the distinctive patterns in how humans perceive genuine and altered images. Statistical findings reveal that, when perceiving counterfeit samples, humans tend to focus on more confined regions of the image, in contrast to the more dispersed observational pattern observed when viewing genuine images. Our dataset is publicly available at: https://github.com/aimagelab/unveiling-the-truth.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 13, 2024

RAPiD-Seg: Range-Aware Pointwise Distance Distribution Networks for 3D LiDAR Segmentation

3D point clouds play a pivotal role in outdoor scene perception, especially in the context of autonomous driving. Recent advancements in 3D LiDAR segmentation often focus intensely on the spatial positioning and distribution of points for accurate segmentation. However, these methods, while robust in variable conditions, encounter challenges due to sole reliance on coordinates and point intensity, leading to poor isometric invariance and suboptimal segmentation. To tackle this challenge, our work introduces Range-Aware Pointwise Distance Distribution (RAPiD) features and the associated RAPiD-Seg architecture. Our RAPiD features exhibit rigid transformation invariance and effectively adapt to variations in point density, with a design focus on capturing the localized geometry of neighboring structures. They utilize inherent LiDAR isotropic radiation and semantic categorization for enhanced local representation and computational efficiency, while incorporating a 4D distance metric that integrates geometric and surface material reflectivity for improved semantic segmentation. To effectively embed high-dimensional RAPiD features, we propose a double-nested autoencoder structure with a novel class-aware embedding objective to encode high-dimensional features into manageable voxel-wise embeddings. Additionally, we propose RAPiD-Seg which incorporates a channel-wise attention fusion and two effective RAPiD-Seg variants, further optimizing the embedding for enhanced performance and generalization. Our method outperforms contemporary LiDAR segmentation work in terms of mIoU on SemanticKITTI (76.1) and nuScenes (83.6) datasets.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 14, 2024

1FLAT: a Firmamento-based catalog of AGN in Fermi-LAT high Galactic latitude γ-ray sources

We present a systematic reassessment of 5,062 high-Galactic latitude gamma-ray sources from the Fermi-LAT 4FGL-DR4 catalog using Firmamento, a web-based platform for multi-frequency source discovery and analysis. Our goal is to provide an independent evaluation of LAT gamma-ray source associations through alternative spectral and spatial methods that combine recent and legacy survey data, supplemented by human supervision of spectral energy distributions (SEDs), source morphology, flux variability, and template-based comparisons. Firmamento confirms the 4FGL-DR4 and 4LAC-DR3 counterparts or unassociated sources in 4,493 cases (88.8%), demonstrating the robustness of both approaches. Beyond this general agreement, we identify 421 new blazar counterparts among previously unassociated sources, thereby reducing the fraction of unidentified extragalactic Fermi-LAT sources from 25% to 17%. In addition, in 64 cases we find alternative blazar associations, while in 49 instances we do not confirm the 4FGL-DR4 association. For all confirmed blazar counterparts we provide homogeneous estimates of synchrotron peak frequency and peak flux using machine-learning and template-based methods; these agree with 4LAC-DR3 values in most cases, though significant discrepancies appear for a few dozen sources, often due to improved X-ray coverage. The primary outcome of this work is the 1st Firmamento LAT AGN table (1FLAT), made publicly available through the Firmamento platform (https://firmamento.nyuad.nyu.edu), where all related multi-wavelength data and images are available. The project involved extensive manual validation and benefited from the active participation of graduate and undergraduate students, highlighting the platform's value for both research and education.

  • 18 authors
·
Oct 8

Searching For Anisotropic Gravitational-wave Backgrounds Using Pulsar Timing Arrays

We present the results of simulated injections testing the first Bayesian search-pipeline capable of investigating the angular-structure of a gravitational-wave (GW) background influencing pulsar signals. A stochastic background of GWs from the incoherent superposition of many inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries at nHz frequencies is likely to be the dominant GW signal detectable by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). Even though one might expect a background composed of a high-redshift cosmological population of sources to be fairly isotropic, deviations from isotropy may be indicative of local GW hotspots or some form of continuous anisotropy in the angular-distribution of GW-power. A GWB induces time-of-arrival deviations in pulsar signals which are correlated between separated pulsars. In an isotropic background this cross-correlation follows a distinctive relationship, known as the Hellings and Downs curve, that depends only on the angular separation of the pulsars. If the background is anisotropic, the cross-correlation is different, but predictable, and also depends on the absolute position of the pulsars. By simulating datasets containing GWBs with various anisotropic configurations, we have explored the prospects for constraining anisotropy using near future data. We find that at moderate to high signal to noise ratio the assumption of isotropy is no longer an appropriate description of the simulated background. Furthermore, we can recover the nature of the injected anisotropy in a Bayesian parameter-estimation search, and propose a prior on the anisotropy search-space motivated by the physicality of the implied distribution of sources.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 23, 2013

Analyzing Data Quality and Decay in Mega-Constellations: A Physics-Informed Machine Learning Approach

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 13

Beyond Confidence: Adaptive Abstention in Dual-Threshold Conformal Prediction for Autonomous System Perception

Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (\ge 1 - \alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993\to0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0\%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5\%\to63.4\%\pm0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5\%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995\pm0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 10

The DESI PRObabilistic Value-Added Bright Galaxy Survey (PROVABGS) Mock Challenge

The PRObabilistic Value-Added Bright Galaxy Survey (PROVABGS) catalog will provide measurements of galaxy properties, such as stellar mass (M_*), star formation rate ({rm SFR}), stellar metallicity (Z_{rm MW}), and stellar age (t_{rm age, MW}), for >10 million galaxies of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey. Full posterior distributions of the galaxy properties will be inferred using state-of-the-art Bayesian spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling of DESI spectroscopy and Legacy Surveys photometry. In this work, we present the SED model, Bayesian inference framework, and methodology of PROVABGS. Furthermore, we apply the PROVABGS SED modeling on realistic synthetic DESI spectra and photometry, constructed using the L-GALAXIES semi-analytic model. We compare the inferred galaxy properties to the true galaxy properties of the simulation using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to quantify accuracy and precision. Overall, we accurately infer the true M_*, {rm SFR}, Z_{rm MW}, and t_{rm age, MW} of the simulated galaxies. However, the priors on galaxy properties induced by the SED model have a significant impact on the posteriors. They impose a {rm SFR}{>}10^{-1} M_odot/{rm yr} lower bound on {rm SFR}, a {sim}0.3 dex bias on log Z_{rm MW} for galaxies with low spectral signal-to-noise, and t_{rm age, MW} < 8,{rm Gyr} upper bound on stellar age. This work also demonstrates that a joint analysis of spectra and photometry significantly improves the constraints on galaxy properties over photometry alone and is necessary to mitigate the impact of the priors. With the methodology presented and validated in this work, PROVABGS will maximize information extracted from DESI observations and provide a probabilistic value-added galaxy catalog that will extend current galaxy studies to new regimes and unlock cutting-edge probabilistic analyses.

  • 19 authors
·
Feb 3, 2022

Bounding Box Stability against Feature Dropout Reflects Detector Generalization across Environments

Bounding boxes uniquely characterize object detection, where a good detector gives accurate bounding boxes of categories of interest. However, in the real-world where test ground truths are not provided, it is non-trivial to find out whether bounding boxes are accurate, thus preventing us from assessing the detector generalization ability. In this work, we find under feature map dropout, good detectors tend to output bounding boxes whose locations do not change much, while bounding boxes of poor detectors will undergo noticeable position changes. We compute the box stability score (BoS score) to reflect this stability. Specifically, given an image, we compute a normal set of bounding boxes and a second set after feature map dropout. To obtain BoS score, we use bipartite matching to find the corresponding boxes between the two sets and compute the average Intersection over Union (IoU) across the entire test set. We contribute to finding that BoS score has a strong, positive correlation with detection accuracy measured by mean average precision (mAP) under various test environments. This relationship allows us to predict the accuracy of detectors on various real-world test sets without accessing test ground truths, verified on canonical detection tasks such as vehicle detection and pedestrian detection. Code and data are available at https://github.com/YangYangGirl/BoS.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 20, 2024

Characterising gravitational wave stochastic background anisotropy with Pulsar Timing Arrays

Detecting a stochastic gravitational wave background, particularly radiation from individually unresolvable super-massive black hole binary systems, is one of the primary targets for Pulsar Timing Arrays. Increasingly more stringent upper limits are being set on these signals under the assumption that the background radiation is isotropic. However, some level of anisotropy may be present and the characterisation of the power at different angular scales carries important information. We show that the standard analysis for isotropic backgrounds can be generalised in a conceptually straightforward way to the case of generic anisotropic background radiation by decomposing the angular distribution of the gravitational wave power on the sky into multipole moments. We introduce the concept of generalised overlap reduction functions which characterise the effect of the anisotropy multipoles on the correlation of the timing residuals from the pulsars timed by a Pulsar Timing Array. In a search for a signal characterised by a generic anisotropy, the generalised overlap reduction functions play the role of the so-called Hellings and Downs curve used for isotropic radiation. We compute the generalised overlap reduction functions for a generic level of anisotropy and Pulsar Timing Array configuration. We also provide an order of magnitude estimate of the level of anisotropy that can be expected in the background generated by super-massive black hole binary systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 23, 2013

ValUES: A Framework for Systematic Validation of Uncertainty Estimation in Semantic Segmentation

Uncertainty estimation is an essential and heavily-studied component for the reliable application of semantic segmentation methods. While various studies exist claiming methodological advances on the one hand, and successful application on the other hand, the field is currently hampered by a gap between theory and practice leaving fundamental questions unanswered: Can data-related and model-related uncertainty really be separated in practice? Which components of an uncertainty method are essential for real-world performance? Which uncertainty method works well for which application? In this work, we link this research gap to a lack of systematic and comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty methods. Specifically, we identify three key pitfalls in current literature and present an evaluation framework that bridges the research gap by providing 1) a controlled environment for studying data ambiguities as well as distribution shifts, 2) systematic ablations of relevant method components, and 3) test-beds for the five predominant uncertainty applications: OoD-detection, active learning, failure detection, calibration, and ambiguity modeling. Empirical results on simulated as well as real-world data demonstrate how the proposed framework is able to answer the predominant questions in the field revealing for instance that 1) separation of uncertainty types works on simulated data but does not necessarily translate to real-world data, 2) aggregation of scores is a crucial but currently neglected component of uncertainty methods, 3) While ensembles are performing most robustly across the different downstream tasks and settings, test-time augmentation often constitutes a light-weight alternative. Code is at: https://github.com/IML-DKFZ/values

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 16, 2024

Efficient Massive Black Hole Binary parameter estimation for LISA using Sequential Neural Likelihood

The inspiral, merger, and ringdown of Massive Black Hole Binaries (MBHBs) is one the main sources of Gravitational Waves (GWs) for the future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), an ESA-led mission in the implementation phase. It is expected that LISA will detect these systems throughout the entire observable universe. Robust and efficient data analysis algorithms are necessary to detect and estimate physical parameters for these systems. In this work, we explore the application of Sequential Neural Likelihood, a simulation-based inference algorithm, to detect and characterize MBHB GW signals in synthetic LISA data. We describe in detail the different elements of the method, their performance and possible alternatives that can be used to enhance the performance. Instead of sampling from the conventional likelihood function, which requires a forward simulation for each evaluation, this method constructs a surrogate likelihood that is ultimately described by a neural network trained from a dataset of simulations of the MBHB signals and noise. One important advantage of this method is that, given that the likelihood is independent of the priors, we can iteratively train models that target specific observations in a fraction of the time and computational cost that other traditional and machine learning-based strategies would require. Because of the iterative nature of the method, we are able to train models to obtain qualitatively similar posteriors with less than 2\% of the simulator calls that Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods would require. We compare these posteriors with those obtained from Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and discuss the differences that appear, in particular in relation with the important role that data compression has in the modular implementation of the method that we present. We also discuss different strategies to improve the performance of the algorithms.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 1, 2024

Machine Learning with Multitype Protected Attributes: Intersectional Fairness through Regularisation

Ensuring equitable treatment (fairness) across protected attributes (such as gender or ethnicity) is a critical issue in machine learning. Most existing literature focuses on binary classification, but achieving fairness in regression tasks-such as insurance pricing or hiring score assessments-is equally important. Moreover, anti-discrimination laws also apply to continuous attributes, such as age, for which many existing methods are not applicable. In practice, multiple protected attributes can exist simultaneously; however, methods targeting fairness across several attributes often overlook so-called "fairness gerrymandering", thereby ignoring disparities among intersectional subgroups (e.g., African-American women or Hispanic men). In this paper, we propose a distance covariance regularisation framework that mitigates the association between model predictions and protected attributes, in line with the fairness definition of demographic parity, and that captures both linear and nonlinear dependencies. To enhance applicability in the presence of multiple protected attributes, we extend our framework by incorporating two multivariate dependence measures based on distance covariance: the previously proposed joint distance covariance (JdCov) and our novel concatenated distance covariance (CCdCov), which effectively address fairness gerrymandering in both regression and classification tasks involving protected attributes of various types. We discuss and illustrate how to calibrate regularisation strength, including a method based on Jensen-Shannon divergence, which quantifies dissimilarities in prediction distributions across groups. We apply our framework to the COMPAS recidivism dataset and a large motor insurance claims dataset.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 9

Uncertainty quantification for improving radiomic-based models in radiation pneumonitis prediction

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 27, 2024

CLAMS: A Cluster Ambiguity Measure for Estimating Perceptual Variability in Visual Clustering

Visual clustering is a common perceptual task in scatterplots that supports diverse analytics tasks (e.g., cluster identification). However, even with the same scatterplot, the ways of perceiving clusters (i.e., conducting visual clustering) can differ due to the differences among individuals and ambiguous cluster boundaries. Although such perceptual variability casts doubt on the reliability of data analysis based on visual clustering, we lack a systematic way to efficiently assess this variability. In this research, we study perceptual variability in conducting visual clustering, which we call Cluster Ambiguity. To this end, we introduce CLAMS, a data-driven visual quality measure for automatically predicting cluster ambiguity in monochrome scatterplots. We first conduct a qualitative study to identify key factors that affect the visual separation of clusters (e.g., proximity or size difference between clusters). Based on study findings, we deploy a regression module that estimates the human-judged separability of two clusters. Then, CLAMS predicts cluster ambiguity by analyzing the aggregated results of all pairwise separability between clusters that are generated by the module. CLAMS outperforms widely-used clustering techniques in predicting ground truth cluster ambiguity. Meanwhile, CLAMS exhibits performance on par with human annotators. We conclude our work by presenting two applications for optimizing and benchmarking data mining techniques using CLAMS. The interactive demo of CLAMS is available at clusterambiguity.dev.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 1, 2023