Daily Papers

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in univariate forecasting on new time series simply by conditioned on a brief history of past values. Their success demonstrates that large-scale pretraining across diverse domains can acquire the inductive bias to generalize from temporal patterns in a brief history. However, most TSFMs are unable to leverage covariates -- future-available exogenous variables critical for accurate forecasting in many applications -- due to their domain-specific nature and the lack of associated inductive bias. We propose TFMAdapter, a lightweight, instance-level adapter that augments TSFMs with covariate information without fine-tuning. Instead of retraining, TFMAdapter operates on the limited history provided during a single model call, learning a non-parametric cascade that combines covariates with univariate TSFM forecasts. However, such learning would require univariate forecasts at all steps in the history, requiring too many calls to the TSFM. To enable training on the full historical context while limiting TSFM invocations, TFMAdapter uses a two-stage method: (1) generating pseudo-forecasts with a simple regression model, and (2) training a Gaussian Process regressor to refine predictions using both pseudo- and TSFM forecasts alongside covariates. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TFMAdapter consistently outperforms both foundation models and supervised baselines, achieving a 24-27\% improvement over base foundation models with minimal data and computational overhead. Our results highlight the potential of lightweight adapters to bridge the gap between generic foundation models and domain-specific forecasting needs.

The prediction of ship trajectories is a growing field of study in artificial intelligence. Traditional methods rely on the use of LSTM, GRU networks, and even Transformer architectures for the prediction of spatio-temporal series. This study proposes a viable alternative for predicting these trajectories using only GNSS positions. It considers this spatio-temporal problem as a natural language processing problem. The latitude/longitude coordinates of AIS messages are transformed into cell identifiers using the H3 index. Thanks to the pseudo-octal representation, it becomes easier for language models to learn the spatial hierarchy of the H3 index. The method is compared with a classical Kalman filter, widely used in the maritime domain, and introduces the Fr\'echet distance as the main evaluation metric. We show that it is possible to predict ship trajectories quite precisely up to 8 hours with 30 minutes of context. We demonstrate that this alternative works well enough to predict trajectories worldwide.

We present a novel framework for motion forecasting with Dual Consistency Constraints and Multi-Pseudo-Target supervision. The motion forecasting task predicts future trajectories of vehicles by incorporating spatial and temporal information from the past. A key design of DCMS is the proposed Dual Consistency Constraints that regularize the predicted trajectories under spatial and temporal perturbation during the training stage. In addition, we design a novel self-ensembling scheme to obtain accurate pseudo targets to model the multi-modality in motion forecasting through supervision with multiple targets explicitly, namely Multi-Pseudo-Target supervision. Our experimental results on the Argoverse motion forecasting benchmark show that DCMS significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods, achieving 1st place on the leaderboard. We also demonstrate that our proposed strategies can be incorporated into other motion forecasting approaches as general training schemes.

We introduce UniOcc, a comprehensive, unified benchmark for occupancy forecasting (i.e., predicting future occupancies based on historical information) and current-frame occupancy prediction from camera images. UniOcc unifies data from multiple real-world datasets (i.e., nuScenes, Waymo) and high-fidelity driving simulators (i.e., CARLA, OpenCOOD), which provides 2D/3D occupancy labels with per-voxel flow annotations and support for cooperative autonomous driving. In terms of evaluation, unlike existing studies that rely on suboptimal pseudo labels for evaluation, UniOcc incorporates novel metrics that do not depend on ground-truth occupancy, enabling robust assessment of additional aspects of occupancy quality. Through extensive experiments on state-of-the-art models, we demonstrate that large-scale, diverse training data and explicit flow information significantly enhance occupancy prediction and forecasting performance.

Egocentric human motion generation and forecasting with scene-context is crucial for enhancing AR/VR experiences, improving human-robot interaction, advancing assistive technologies, and enabling adaptive healthcare solutions by accurately predicting and simulating movement from a first-person perspective. However, existing methods primarily focus on third-person motion synthesis with structured 3D scene contexts, limiting their effectiveness in real-world egocentric settings where limited field of view, frequent occlusions, and dynamic cameras hinder scene perception. To bridge this gap, we introduce Egocentric Motion Generation and Egocentric Motion Forecasting, two novel tasks that utilize first-person images for scene-aware motion synthesis without relying on explicit 3D scene. We propose UniEgoMotion, a unified conditional motion diffusion model with a novel head-centric motion representation tailored for egocentric devices. UniEgoMotion's simple yet effective design supports egocentric motion reconstruction, forecasting, and generation from first-person visual inputs in a unified framework. Unlike previous works that overlook scene semantics, our model effectively extracts image-based scene context to infer plausible 3D motion. To facilitate training, we introduce EE4D-Motion, a large-scale dataset derived from EgoExo4D, augmented with pseudo-ground-truth 3D motion annotations. UniEgoMotion achieves state-of-the-art performance in egocentric motion reconstruction and is the first to generate motion from a single egocentric image. Extensive evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of our unified framework, setting a new benchmark for egocentric motion modeling and unlocking new possibilities for egocentric applications.

Glaucoma is the number one cause of irreversible blindness globally. A major challenge for accurate glaucoma detection and progression forecasting is the bottleneck of limited labeled patients with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) 3D retinal imaging data of optical coherence tomography (OCT). To address the data scarcity issue, this paper proposes two solutions. First, we develop a novel generalization-reinforced semi-supervised learning (SSL) model called pseudo supervisor to optimally utilize unlabeled data. Compared with SOTA models, the proposed pseudo supervisor optimizes the policy of predicting pseudo labels with unlabeled samples to improve empirical generalization. Our pseudo supervisor model is evaluated with two clinical tasks consisting of glaucoma detection and progression forecasting. The progression forecasting task is evaluated both unimodally and multimodally. Our pseudo supervisor model demonstrates superior performance than SOTA SSL comparison models. Moreover, our model also achieves the best results on the publicly available LAG fundus dataset. Second, we introduce the Harvard Glaucoma Detection and Progression (Harvard-GDP) Dataset, a multimodal multitask dataset that includes data from 1,000 patients with OCT imaging data, as well as labels for glaucoma detection and progression. This is the largest glaucoma detection dataset with 3D OCT imaging data and the first glaucoma progression forecasting dataset that is publicly available. Detailed sex and racial analysis are provided, which can be used by interested researchers for fairness learning studies. Our released dataset is benchmarked with several SOTA supervised CNN and transformer deep learning models. The dataset and code are made publicly available via https://ophai.hms.harvard.edu/datasets/harvard-gdp1000.

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have achieved remarkable progress in aligning and generating content across text and image modalities. However, the potential of using non-visual, continuous sequential, as a conditioning signal for high-fidelity image generation remains largely unexplored. Furthermore, existing methods that convert series into "pseudo-images" for temporal forecasting fail to establish semantic-level alignment. In this paper, we propose TimeArtist, a temporal-visual conversion framework that pioneers semantic-level alignment between time series fluctuations and visual concepts. It pioneers a "warmup-align" paradigm: first, a dual-autoencoder and shared quantizer are self-supervised trained on large-scale datasets to learn modality-shared representations. Then, the encoders and quantizer are frozen, and a projection is introduced to align temporal and visual samples at the representation level. TimeArtist establishes a versatile cross-modal framework, enabling high-quality, diverse image generation directly from time series, while capturing temporal fluctuation patterns to render images as styles transfer. Extensive experiments show that TimeArtist achieves satisfactory performance in image generation metrics, while also attaining superior results in zero-shot temporal tasks. Our work establishes a new paradigm for cross-modal generation, bridging the gap between temporal dynamics and visual semantics.