Daily Papers

Diffusion models deliver high-fidelity synthesis but remain slow due to iterative sampling. We empirically observe there exists feature invariance in deterministic sampling, and present InvarDiff, a training-free acceleration method that exploits the relative temporal invariance across timestep-scale and layer-scale. From a few deterministic runs, we compute a per-timestep, per-layer, per-module binary cache plan matrix and use a re-sampling correction to avoid drift when consecutive caches occur. Using quantile-based change metrics, this matrix specifies which module at which step is reused rather than recomputed. The same invariance criterion is applied at the step scale to enable cross-timestep caching, deciding whether an entire step can reuse cached results. During inference, InvarDiff performs step-first and layer-wise caching guided by this matrix. When applied to DiT and FLUX, our approach reduces redundant compute while preserving fidelity. Experiments show that InvarDiff achieves 2-3times end-to-end speed-ups with minimal impact on standard quality metrics. Qualitatively, we observe almost no degradation in visual quality compared with full computations.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Most popular benchmarks for comparing LLMs rely on a limited set of prompt templates, which may not fully capture the LLMs' abilities and can affect the reproducibility of results on leaderboards. Many recent works empirically verify prompt sensitivity and advocate for changes in LLM evaluation. In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the performance distribution across many prompt variants instead of finding a single prompt to evaluate with. We introduce PromptEval, a method for estimating performance across a large set of prompts borrowing strength across prompts and examples to produce accurate estimates under practical evaluation budgets. The resulting distribution can be used to obtain performance quantiles to construct various robust performance metrics (e.g., top 95% quantile or median). We prove that PromptEval consistently estimates the performance distribution and demonstrate its efficacy empirically on three prominent LLM benchmarks: MMLU, BIG-bench Hard, and LMentry. For example, PromptEval can accurately estimate performance quantiles across 100 prompt templates on MMLU with a budget equivalent to two single-prompt evaluations. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/felipemaiapolo/prompt-eval.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) strengthens LLM reasoning, but training often oscillates between {entropy collapse} and {entropy explosion}. We trace both hazards to the mean baseline used in value-free RL (e.g., GRPO and DAPO), which improperly penalizes negative-advantage samples under reward outliers. We propose {Quantile Advantage Estimation} (QAE), replacing the mean with a group-wise K-quantile baseline. QAE induces a response-level, two-regime gate: on hard queries (p <= 1 - K) it reinforces rare successes, while on easy queries (p > 1 - K) it targets remaining failures. Under first-order softmax updates, we prove {two-sided entropy safety}, giving lower and upper bounds on one-step entropy change that curb explosion and prevent collapse. Empirically, this minimal modification stabilizes entropy, sparsifies credit assignment (with tuned K, roughly 80% of responses receive zero advantage), and yields sustained pass@1 gains on Qwen3-8B/14B-Base across AIME 2024/2025 and AMC 2023. These results identify {baseline design} -- rather than token-level heuristics -- as the primary mechanism for scaling RLVR.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

Accurately predicting watch time is crucial for optimizing recommendations and user experience in short video platforms. However, existing methods that estimate a single average watch time often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in user engagement patterns. In this paper, we propose Conditional Quantile Estimation (CQE) to model the entire conditional distribution of watch time. Using quantile regression, CQE characterizes the complex watch-time distribution for each user-video pair, providing a flexible and comprehensive approach to understanding user behavior. We further design multiple strategies to combine the quantile estimates, adapting to different recommendation scenarios and user preferences. Extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests demonstrate the superiority of CQE in watch-time prediction and user engagement modeling. Specifically, deploying CQE online on a large-scale platform with hundreds of millions of daily active users has led to substantial gains in key evaluation metrics, including active days, engagement time, and video views. These results highlight the practical impact of our proposed approach in enhancing the user experience and overall performance of the short video recommendation system. The code will be released https://github.com/justopit/CQE.

This paper proposes an online, provably robust, and scalable Bayesian approach for changepoint detection. The resulting algorithm has key advantages over previous work: it provides provable robustness by leveraging the generalised Bayesian perspective, and also addresses the scalability issues of previous attempts. Specifically, the proposed generalised Bayesian formalism leads to conjugate posteriors whose parameters are available in closed form by leveraging diffusion score matching. The resulting algorithm is exact, can be updated through simple algebra, and is more than 10 times faster than its closest competitor.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

The effectiveness of recommendation systems is pivotal to user engagement and satisfaction in online platforms. As these recommendation systems increasingly influence user choices, their evaluation transcends mere technical performance and becomes central to business success. This paper addresses the multifaceted nature of recommendations system evaluation by introducing a comprehensive suite of metrics, each tailored to capture a distinct aspect of system performance. We discuss * Similarity Metrics: to quantify the precision of content-based filtering mechanisms and assess the accuracy of collaborative filtering techniques. * Candidate Generation Metrics: to evaluate how effectively the system identifies a broad yet relevant range of items. * Predictive Metrics: to assess the accuracy of forecasted user preferences. * Ranking Metrics: to evaluate the effectiveness of the order in which recommendations are presented. * Business Metrics: to align the performance of the recommendation system with economic objectives. Our approach emphasizes the contextual application of these metrics and their interdependencies. In this paper, we identify the strengths and limitations of current evaluation practices and highlight the nuanced trade-offs that emerge when optimizing recommendation systems across different metrics. The paper concludes by proposing a framework for selecting and interpreting these metrics to not only improve system performance but also to advance business goals. This work is to aid researchers and practitioners in critically assessing recommendation systems and fosters the development of more nuanced, effective, and economically viable personalization strategies. Our code is available at GitHub - https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Evaluation-Metrics-for-Recommendation-Systems.

We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a parsimonious way. We develop two algorithms for posterior inference that feature varying level of trade-off between estimation precision and computational speed. Using monthly data for the euro area, we establish the good empirical properties of the QFAVAR as a tool for assessing the effects of global shocks on country-level macroeconomic risks. In particular, QFAVAR short-run tail forecasts are more accurate compared to a FAVAR with symmetric Gaussian errors, as well as univariate quantile autoregressions that ignore comovements among quantiles of macroeconomic variables. We also illustrate how quantile impulse response functions and quantile connectedness measures, resulting from the new model, can be used to implement joint risk scenario analysis.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a key method for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences through the use of reward models. However, traditional reward models typically generate point estimates, which oversimplify the diversity and complexity of human values and preferences. In this paper, we introduce Quantile Reward Models (QRMs), a novel approach to reward modeling that learns a distribution over rewards instead of a single scalar value. Our method uses quantile regression to estimate a full, potentially multimodal distribution over preferences, providing a more powerful and nuanced representation of preferences. This distributional approach can better capture the diversity of human values, addresses label noise, and accommodates conflicting preferences by modeling them as distinct modes in the distribution. Our experimental results show that QRM outperforms comparable traditional point-estimate models on RewardBench. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the additional information provided by the distributional estimates can be utilized in downstream applications, such as risk-aware reinforcement learning, resulting in LLM policies that generate fewer extremely negative responses. Our code and model are released at https://github.com/Nicolinho/QRM.

Prototype models are an important method for explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) and interpretable machine learning. In this paper, we perform an in-depth analysis of a set of prominent prototype models including ProtoPNet, ProtoPool and PIPNet. For their assessment, we apply a comprehensive set of metrics. In addition to applying standard metrics from literature, we propose several new metrics to further complement the analysis of model interpretability. In our experimentation, we apply the set of prototype models on a diverse set of datasets including fine-grained classification, Non-IID settings and multi-label classification to further contrast the performance. Furthermore, we also provide our code as an open-source library (https://github.com/uos-sis/quanproto), which facilitates simple application of the metrics itself, as well as extensibility -- providing the option for easily adding new metrics and models.

Formula alpha mining, which generates predictive signals from financial data, is critical for quantitative investment. Although various algorithmic approaches-such as genetic programming, reinforcement learning, and large language models-have significantly expanded the capacity for alpha discovery, systematic evaluation remains a key challenge. Existing evaluation metrics predominantly include backtesting and correlation-based measures. Backtesting is computationally intensive, inherently sequential, and sensitive to specific strategy parameters. Correlation-based metrics, though efficient, assess only predictive ability and overlook other crucial properties such as temporal stability, robustness, diversity, and interpretability. Additionally, the closed-source nature of most existing alpha mining models hinders reproducibility and slows progress in this field. To address these issues, we propose AlphaEval, a unified, parallelizable, and backtest-free evaluation framework for automated alpha mining models. AlphaEval assesses the overall quality of generated alphas along five complementary dimensions: predictive power, stability, robustness to market perturbations, financial logic, and diversity. Extensive experiments across representative alpha mining algorithms demonstrate that AlphaEval achieves evaluation consistency comparable to comprehensive backtesting, while providing more comprehensive insights and higher efficiency. Furthermore, AlphaEval effectively identifies superior alphas compared to traditional single-metric screening approaches. All implementations and evaluation tools are open-sourced to promote reproducibility and community engagement.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

We present metrics for measuring state similarity in Markov decision processes (MDPs) with infinitely many states, including MDPs with continuous state spaces. Such metrics provide a stable quantitative analogue of the notion of bisimulation for MDPs, and are suitable for use in MDP approximation. We show that the optimal value function associated with a discounted infinite horizon planning task varies continuously with respect to our metric distances.

Predictive artificial intelligence (AI) offers an opportunity to improve clinical practice and patient outcomes, but risks perpetuating biases if fairness is inadequately addressed. However, the definition of "fairness" remains unclear. We conducted a scoping review to identify and critically appraise fairness metrics for clinical predictive AI. We defined a "fairness metric" as a measure quantifying whether a model discriminates (societally) against individuals or groups defined by sensitive attributes. We searched five databases (2014-2024), screening 820 records, to include 41 studies, and extracted 62 fairness metrics. Metrics were classified by performance-dependency, model output level, and base performance metric, revealing a fragmented landscape with limited clinical validation and overreliance on threshold-dependent measures. Eighteen metrics were explicitly developed for healthcare, including only one clinical utility metric. Our findings highlight conceptual challenges in defining and quantifying fairness and identify gaps in uncertainty quantification, intersectionality, and real-world applicability. Future work should prioritise clinically meaningful metrics.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Serving Large Language Models (LLMs) is costly. However, post-training weight quantization can address this problem by both compressing their sizes for limited memory and saving bandwidth for acceleration. As not all weight dimensions are equally important, those methods typically rely on a sensitivity metric, which indicates the element-wise influence of weights on loss function and is used to preprocess original weights for better quantization. In this work, we conduct an empirical study on the accuracy of the sensitivity metric, and find that existing gradient and Hessian based metrics are very inaccurate: they underestimate quantization's impact on the loss function by orders of magnitude, mainly due to the small convergence radius of local 2nd order approximation, \ie, gradient and Hessian term in Taylor's formula. To tackle this problem, we propose Post-quantization Integral (PQI), an accurate metric to estimate posterior sensitivity in a fine-grained manner. To leverage this accurate metric, we further propose ReQuant, a simple yet powerful framework that mainly consists of two Dense-and-Sparse detach components: self-adaptive outlier selection and step-wise significant weights detach. Results show that ReQuant boosts state-of-the-art post-training quantization methods, with a pronounced improvement of 2.66 perplexity gain on Llama 3.2 1B with QTIP.

Measuring diversity accurately is important for many scientific fields, including machine learning (ML), ecology, and chemistry. The Vendi Score was introduced as a generic similarity-based diversity metric that extends the Hill number of order q=1 by leveraging ideas from quantum statistical mechanics. Contrary to many diversity metrics in ecology, the Vendi Score accounts for similarity and does not require knowledge of the prevalence of the categories in the collection to be evaluated for diversity. However, the Vendi Score treats each item in a given collection with a level of sensitivity proportional to the item's prevalence. This is undesirable in settings where there is a significant imbalance in item prevalence. In this paper, we extend the other Hill numbers using similarity to provide flexibility in allocating sensitivity to rare or common items. This leads to a family of diversity metrics -- Vendi scores with different levels of sensitivity -- that can be used in a variety of applications. We study the properties of the scores in a synthetic controlled setting where the ground truth diversity is known. We then test their utility in improving molecular simulations via Vendi Sampling. Finally, we use the Vendi scores to better understand the behavior of image generative models in terms of memorization, duplication, diversity, and sample quality.

In this work, we build on recent advances in distributional reinforcement learning to give a generally applicable, flexible, and state-of-the-art distributional variant of DQN. We achieve this by using quantile regression to approximate the full quantile function for the state-action return distribution. By reparameterizing a distribution over the sample space, this yields an implicitly defined return distribution and gives rise to a large class of risk-sensitive policies. We demonstrate improved performance on the 57 Atari 2600 games in the ALE, and use our algorithm's implicitly defined distributions to study the effects of risk-sensitive policies in Atari games.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

While the field of Quality-Diversity (QD) has grown into a distinct branch of stochastic optimization, a few problems, in particular locomotion and navigation tasks, have become de facto standards. Are such benchmarks sufficient? Are they representative of the key challenges faced by QD algorithms? Do they provide the ability to focus on one particular challenge by properly disentangling it from others? Do they have much predictive power in terms of scalability and generalization? Existing benchmarks are not standardized, and there is currently no MNIST equivalent for QD. Inspired by recent works on Reinforcement Learning benchmarks, we argue that the identification of challenges faced by QD methods and the development of targeted, challenging, scalable but affordable benchmarks is an important step. As an initial effort, we identify three problems that are challenging in sparse reward settings, and propose associated benchmarks: (1) Behavior metric bias, which can result from the use of metrics that do not match the structure of the behavior space. (2) Behavioral Plateaus, with varying characteristics, such that escaping them would require adaptive QD algorithms and (3) Evolvability Traps, where small variations in genotype result in large behavioral changes. The environments that we propose satisfy the properties listed above.

This work presents a comprehensive evaluation of how quantization affects model bias, with particular attention to its impact on individual demographic subgroups. We focus on weight and activation quantization strategies and examine their effects across a broad range of bias types, including stereotypes, toxicity, sentiment, and fairness. We employ both probabilistic and generated text-based metrics across nine benchmarks and evaluate models varying in architecture family and reasoning ability. Our findings show that quantization has a nuanced impact on bias: while it can reduce model toxicity and does not significantly impact sentiment, it tends to slightly increase stereotypes and unfairness in generative tasks, especially under aggressive compression. These trends are generally consistent across demographic categories and model types, although their magnitude depends on the specific setting. Overall, our results highlight the importance of carefully balancing efficiency and ethical considerations when applying quantization in practice.

Agentic coding tools, such as OpenAI Codex, Claude Code, and Cursor, are transforming the software engineering landscape. These AI-powered systems function as autonomous teammates capable of planning and executing complex development tasks. Agents have become active participants in refactoring, a cornerstone of sustainable software development aimed at improving internal code quality without altering observable behavior. Despite their increasing adoption, there is a critical lack of empirical understanding regarding how agentic refactoring is utilized in practice, how it compares to human-driven refactoring, and what impact it has on code quality. To address this empirical gap, we present a large-scale study of AI agent-generated refactorings in real-world open-source Java projects, analyzing 15,451 refactoring instances across 12,256 pull requests and 14,988 commits derived from the AIDev dataset. Our empirical analysis shows that refactoring is a common and intentional activity in this development paradigm, with agents explicitly targeting refactoring in 26.1% of commits. Analysis of refactoring types reveals that agentic efforts are dominated by low-level, consistency-oriented edits, such as Change Variable Type (11.8%), Rename Parameter (10.4%), and Rename Variable (8.5%), reflecting a preference for localized improvements over the high-level design changes common in human refactoring. Additionally, the motivations behind agentic refactoring focus overwhelmingly on internal quality concerns, with maintainability (52.5%) and readability (28.1%). Furthermore, quantitative evaluation of code quality metrics shows that agentic refactoring yields small but statistically significant improvements in structural metrics, particularly for medium-level changes, reducing class size and complexity (e.g., Class LOC median Δ = -15.25).

Histograms provide a powerful means of summarizing large data sets by representing their distribution in a compact, binned form. The HistogramTools R package enhances R built-in histogram functionality, offering advanced methods for manipulating and analyzing histograms, especially in large-scale data environments. Key features include the ability to serialize histograms using Protocol Buffers for distributed computing tasks, tools for merging and modifying histograms, and techniques for measuring and visualizing information loss in histogram representations. The package is particularly suited for environments utilizing MapReduce, where efficient storage and data sharing are critical. This paper presents various methods of histogram bin manipulation, distance measures, quantile approximation, and error estimation in cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) derived from histograms. Visualization techniques and efficient storage representations are also discussed alongside applications for large data processing and distributed computing tasks.

Text offers intuitive access to information. This can, in particular, complement the density of numerical time series, thereby allowing improved interactions with time series models to enhance accessibility and decision-making. While the creation of question-answering datasets and models has recently seen remarkable growth, most research focuses on question answering (QA) on vision and text, with time series receiving minute attention. To bridge this gap, we propose a challenging novel time series QA (TSQA) dataset, QuAnTS, for Question Answering on Time Series data. Specifically, we pose a wide variety of questions and answers about human motion in the form of tracked skeleton trajectories. We verify that the large-scale QuAnTS dataset is well-formed and comprehensive through extensive experiments. Thoroughly evaluating existing and newly proposed baselines then lays the groundwork for a deeper exploration of TSQA using QuAnTS. Additionally, we provide human performances as a key reference for gauging the practical usability of such models. We hope to encourage future research on interacting with time series models through text, enabling better decision-making and more transparent systems.

In the highly volatile and uncertain global financial markets, traditional quantitative trading models relying on statistical modeling or empirical rules often fail to adapt to dynamic market changes and black swan events due to rigid assumptions and limited generalization. To address these issues, this paper proposes QTMRL (Quantitative Trading Multi-Indicator Reinforcement Learning), an intelligent trading agent combining multi-dimensional technical indicators with reinforcement learning (RL) for adaptive and stable portfolio management. We first construct a comprehensive multi-indicator dataset using 23 years of S&P 500 daily OHLCV data (2000-2022) for 16 representative stocks across 5 sectors, enriching raw data with trend, volatility, and momentum indicators to capture holistic market dynamics. Then we design a lightweight RL framework based on the Advantage Actor-Critic (A2C) algorithm, including data processing, A2C algorithm, and trading agent modules to support policy learning and actionable trading decisions. Extensive experiments compare QTMRL with 9 baselines (e.g., ARIMA, LSTM, moving average strategies) across diverse market regimes, verifying its superiority in profitability, risk adjustment, and downside risk control. The code of QTMRL is publicly available at https://github.com/ChenJiahaoJNU/QTMRL.git

A robust evaluation metric has a profound impact on the development of text generation systems. A desirable metric compares system output against references based on their semantics rather than surface forms. In this paper we investigate strategies to encode system and reference texts to devise a metric that shows a high correlation with human judgment of text quality. We validate our new metric, namely MoverScore, on a number of text generation tasks including summarization, machine translation, image captioning, and data-to-text generation, where the outputs are produced by a variety of neural and non-neural systems. Our findings suggest that metrics combining contextualized representations with a distance measure perform the best. Such metrics also demonstrate strong generalization capability across tasks. For ease-of-use we make our metrics available as web service.

Machine Translation (MT) evaluation metrics assess translation quality automatically. Recently, researchers have employed MT metrics for various new use cases, such as data filtering and translation re-ranking. However, most MT metrics return assessments as scalar scores that are difficult to interpret, posing a challenge to making informed design choices. Moreover, MT metrics' capabilities have historically been evaluated using correlation with human judgment, which, despite its efficacy, falls short of providing intuitive insights into metric performance, especially in terms of new metric use cases. To address these issues, we introduce an interpretable evaluation framework for MT metrics. Within this framework, we evaluate metrics in two scenarios that serve as proxies for the data filtering and translation re-ranking use cases. Furthermore, by measuring the performance of MT metrics using Precision, Recall, and F-score, we offer clearer insights into their capabilities than correlation with human judgments. Finally, we raise concerns regarding the reliability of manually curated data following the Direct Assessments+Scalar Quality Metrics (DA+SQM) guidelines, reporting a notably low agreement with Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM) annotations.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has shown potential in qualitative tasks where easily defined performance measures are lacking. However, there are drawbacks when RLHF is commonly used to optimize for average human preferences, especially in generative tasks that demand diverse model responses. Meanwhile, Quality Diversity (QD) algorithms excel at identifying diverse and high-quality solutions but often rely on manually crafted diversity metrics. This paper introduces Quality Diversity through Human Feedback (QDHF), a novel approach that progressively infers diversity metrics from human judgments of similarity among solutions, thereby enhancing the applicability and effectiveness of QD algorithms in complex and open-ended domains. Empirical studies show that QDHF significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in automatic diversity discovery and matches the efficacy of QD with manually crafted diversity metrics on standard benchmarks in robotics and reinforcement learning. Notably, in open-ended generative tasks, QDHF substantially enhances the diversity of text-to-image generation from a diffusion model and is more favorably received in user studies. We conclude by analyzing QDHF's scalability, robustness, and quality of derived diversity metrics, emphasizing its strength in open-ended optimization tasks. Code and tutorials are available at https://liding.info/qdhf.

Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods to address it. This paper addresses situations when data evolves gradually. We introduce a time-varying propensity score that can detect gradual shifts in the distribution of data which allows us to selectively sample past data to update the model -- not just similar data from the past like that of a standard propensity score but also data that evolved in a similar fashion in the past. The time-varying propensity score is quite general: we demonstrate different ways of implementing it and evaluate it on a variety of problems ranging from supervised learning (e.g., image classification problems) where data undergoes a sequence of gradual shifts, to reinforcement learning tasks (e.g., robotic manipulation and continuous control) where data shifts as the policy or the task changes.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Language Models (LMs) is crucial for improving their safety and reliability. Evaluations often use performance metrics like AUROC to assess how well UQ methods (e.g., negative sequence probabilities) correlate with task correctness functions (e.g., ROUGE-L). In this paper, we show that commonly used correctness functions bias UQ evaluations by inflating the performance of certain UQ methods. We evaluate 7 correctness functions -- from lexical-based and embedding-based metrics to LLM-as-a-judge approaches -- across 4 datasets x 4 models x 6 UQ methods. Our analysis reveals that length biases in the errors of these correctness functions distort UQ assessments by interacting with length biases in UQ methods. We identify LLM-as-a-judge approaches as among the least length-biased choices and hence a potential solution to mitigate these biases.

Selective Classification, wherein models can reject low-confidence predictions, promises reliable translation of machine-learning based classification systems to real-world scenarios such as clinical diagnostics. While current evaluation of these systems typically assumes fixed working points based on pre-defined rejection thresholds, methodological progress requires benchmarking the general performance of systems akin to the AUROC in standard classification. In this work, we define 5 requirements for multi-threshold metrics in selective classification regarding task alignment, interpretability, and flexibility, and show how current approaches fail to meet them. We propose the Area under the Generalized Risk Coverage curve (AUGRC), which meets all requirements and can be directly interpreted as the average risk of undetected failures. We empirically demonstrate the relevance of AUGRC on a comprehensive benchmark spanning 6 data sets and 13 confidence scoring functions. We find that the proposed metric substantially changes metric rankings on 5 out of the 6 data sets.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Despite the advancement of machine learning techniques in recent years, state-of-the-art systems lack robustness to "real world" events, where the input distributions and tasks encountered by the deployed systems will not be limited to the original training context, and systems will instead need to adapt to novel distributions and tasks while deployed. This critical gap may be addressed through the development of "Lifelong Learning" systems that are capable of 1) Continuous Learning, 2) Transfer and Adaptation, and 3) Scalability. Unfortunately, efforts to improve these capabilities are typically treated as distinct areas of research that are assessed independently, without regard to the impact of each separate capability on other aspects of the system. We instead propose a holistic approach, using a suite of metrics and an evaluation framework to assess Lifelong Learning in a principled way that is agnostic to specific domains or system techniques. Through five case studies, we show that this suite of metrics can inform the development of varied and complex Lifelong Learning systems. We highlight how the proposed suite of metrics quantifies performance trade-offs present during Lifelong Learning system development - both the widely discussed Stability-Plasticity dilemma and the newly proposed relationship between Sample Efficient and Robust Learning. Further, we make recommendations for the formulation and use of metrics to guide the continuing development of Lifelong Learning systems and assess their progress in the future.

Moments when a time series changes its behaviour are called change points. Detection of such points is a well-known problem, which can be found in many applications: quality monitoring of industrial processes, failure detection in complex systems, health monitoring, speech recognition and video analysis. Occurrence of change point implies that the state of the system is altered and its timely detection might help to prevent unwanted consequences. In this paper, we present two online change-point detection approaches based on neural networks. These algorithms demonstrate linear computational complexity and are suitable for change-point detection in large time series. We compare them with the best known algorithms on various synthetic and real world data sets. Experiments show that the proposed methods outperform known approaches.

Automatically generated questions often suffer from problems such as unclear expression or factual inaccuracies, requiring a reliable and comprehensive evaluation of their quality. Human evaluation is frequently used in the field of question generation (QG) and is one of the most accurate evaluation methods. It also serves as the standard for automatic metrics. However, there is a lack of unified evaluation criteria, which hampers the development of both QG technologies and automatic evaluation methods. To address this, we propose QGEval, a multi-dimensional Evaluation benchmark for Question Generation, which evaluates both generated questions and existing automatic metrics across 7 dimensions: fluency, clarity, conciseness, relevance, consistency, answerability, and answer consistency. We demonstrate the appropriateness of these dimensions by examining their correlations and distinctions. Analysis with QGEval reveals that 1) most QG models perform unsatisfactorily in terms of answerability and answer consistency, and 2) existing metrics fail to align well with human assessments when evaluating generated questions across the 7 dimensions. We expect this work to foster the development of both QG technologies and automatic metrics for QG.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as single-forward-pass techniques. In this paper, we propose a post-hoc single-forward-pass framework that jointly captures aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty without modifying or retraining pretrained models. Our method applies Split-Point Analysis (SPA) to decompose predictive residuals into upper and lower subsets, computing Mean Absolute Residuals (MARs) on each side. We prove that, under ideal conditions, the total MAR equals the harmonic mean of subset MARs; deviations define a novel Self-consistency Discrepancy Score (SDS) for fine-grained epistemic estimation across regression and classification. For regression, side-specific quantile regression yields prediction intervals with improved empirical coverage, which are further calibrated via SDS. For classification, when calibration data are available, we apply SPA-based calibration identities to adjust the softmax outputs and then compute predictive entropy on these calibrated probabilities. Extensive experiments on diverse regression and classification benchmarks demonstrate that our framework matches or exceeds several state-of-the-art UQ methods while incurring minimal overhead. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zzz0527/SPC-UQ.

Priorities in multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) convey the relevance preference of one criterion over another, which is usually reflected by imposing the non-negativity and unit-sum constraints. The processing of such priorities is different than other unconstrained data, but this point is often neglected by researchers, which results in fallacious statistical analysis. This article studies three prevalent fallacies in group MCDM along with solutions based on compositional data analysis to avoid misusing statistical operations. First, we use a compositional approach to aggregate the priorities of a group of DMs and show that the outcome of the compositional analysis is identical to the normalized geometric mean, meaning that the arithmetic mean should be avoided. Furthermore, a new aggregation method is developed, which is a robust surrogate for the geometric mean. We also discuss the errors in computing measures of dispersion, including standard deviation and distance functions. Discussing the fallacies in computing the standard deviation, we provide a probabilistic criteria ranking by developing proper Bayesian tests, where we calculate the extent to which a criterion is more important than another. Finally, we explain the errors in computing the distance between priorities, and a clustering algorithm is specially tailored based on proper distance metrics.

We study the problem of temporal-difference-based policy evaluation in reinforcement learning. In particular, we analyse the use of a distributional reinforcement learning algorithm, quantile temporal-difference learning (QTD), for this task. We reach the surprising conclusion that even if a practitioner has no interest in the return distribution beyond the mean, QTD (which learns predictions about the full distribution of returns) may offer performance superior to approaches such as classical TD learning, which predict only the mean return, even in the tabular setting.

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

Evaluating anomaly detection algorithms in time series data is critical as inaccuracies can lead to flawed decision-making in various domains where real-time analytics and data-driven strategies are essential. Traditional performance metrics assume iid data and fail to capture the complex temporal dynamics and specific characteristics of time series anomalies, such as early and delayed detections. We introduce Proximity-Aware Time series anomaly Evaluation (PATE), a novel evaluation metric that incorporates the temporal relationship between prediction and anomaly intervals. PATE uses proximity-based weighting considering buffer zones around anomaly intervals, enabling a more detailed and informed assessment of a detection. Using these weights, PATE computes a weighted version of the area under the Precision and Recall curve. Our experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets show the superiority of PATE in providing more sensible and accurate evaluations than other evaluation metrics. We also tested several state-of-the-art anomaly detectors across various benchmark datasets using the PATE evaluation scheme. The results show that a common metric like Point-Adjusted F1 Score fails to characterize the detection performances well, and that PATE is able to provide a more fair model comparison. By introducing PATE, we redefine the understanding of model efficacy that steers future studies toward developing more effective and accurate detection models.

Automated summary quality assessment falls into two categories: reference-based and reference-free. Reference-based metrics, historically deemed more accurate due to the additional information provided by human-written references, are limited by their reliance on human input. In this paper, we hypothesize that the comparison methodologies used by some reference-based metrics to evaluate a system summary against its corresponding reference can be effectively adapted to assess it against its source document, thereby transforming these metrics into reference-free ones. Experimental results support this hypothesis. After being repurposed reference-freely, the zero-shot BERTScore using the pretrained DeBERTa-large-MNLI model of <0.5B parameters consistently outperforms its original reference-based version across various aspects on the SummEval and Newsroom datasets. It also excels in comparison to most existing reference-free metrics and closely competes with zero-shot summary evaluators based on GPT-3.5.

Process reward models (PRMs) play a central role in guiding inference-time scaling algorithms for large language models (LLMs). However, we observe that even state-of-the-art PRMs can be poorly calibrated and often overestimate success probabilities. To address this, we present a calibration approach, performed via quantile regression, that adjusts PRM outputs to better align with true success probabilities. Leveraging these calibrated success estimates and their associated confidence bounds, we introduce an instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework that dynamically adjusts the inference budget based on the estimated likelihood that a partial reasoning trajectory will yield a correct final answer. Unlike conventional methods that allocate a fixed number of reasoning trajectories per query, this approach successfully adapts to each instance and reasoning step when using our calibrated PRMs. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks show that (i) our PRM calibration method successfully achieves small calibration error, outperforming the baseline methods, (ii) calibration is crucial for enabling effective adaptive scaling, and (iii) the proposed IAS strategy reduces inference costs while maintaining final answer accuracy, utilizing less compute on more confident problems as desired.

Language models can generate harmful and biased outputs and exhibit undesirable behavior according to a given cultural context. We propose a Process for Adapting Language Models to Society (PALMS) with Values-Targeted Datasets, an iterative process to significantly change model behavior by crafting and fine-tuning on a dataset that reflects a predetermined set of target values. We evaluate our process using three metrics: quantitative metrics with human evaluations that score output adherence to a target value, toxicity scoring on outputs; and qualitative metrics analyzing the most common word associated with a given social category. Through each iteration, we add additional training dataset examples based on observed shortcomings from evaluations. PALMS performs significantly better on all metrics compared to baseline and control models for a broad range of GPT-3 language model sizes without compromising capability integrity. We find that the effectiveness of PALMS increases with model size. We show that significantly adjusting language model behavior is feasible with a small, hand-curated dataset.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

Understanding the quality of a performance evaluation metric is crucial for ensuring that model outputs align with human preferences. However, it remains unclear how well each metric captures the diverse aspects of these preferences, as metrics often excel in one particular area but not across all dimensions. To address this, it is essential to systematically calibrate metrics to specific aspects of human preference, catering to the unique characteristics of each aspect. We introduce MetaMetrics, a calibrated meta-metric designed to evaluate generation tasks across different modalities in a supervised manner. MetaMetrics optimizes the combination of existing metrics to enhance their alignment with human preferences. Our metric demonstrates flexibility and effectiveness in both language and vision downstream tasks, showing significant benefits across various multilingual and multi-domain scenarios. MetaMetrics aligns closely with human preferences and is highly extendable and easily integrable into any application. This makes MetaMetrics a powerful tool for improving the evaluation of generation tasks, ensuring that metrics are more representative of human judgment across diverse contexts.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) has emerged as a widely adopted technique for compressing and accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs). The major challenge in LLM quantization is that uneven and heavy-tailed data distributions can expand the quantization range, thereby reducing bit precision for most values. Recent methods attempt to eliminate outliers and balance inter-channel differences by employing linear transformations; however, they remain heuristic and are often overlook optimizing the data distribution across the entire quantization space.In this paper, we introduce Quantization Space Utilization Rate (QSUR), a novel metric that effectively assesses the quantizability of transformed data by measuring the space utilization of the data in the quantization space. We complement QSUR with mathematical derivations that examine the effects and limitations of various transformations, guiding our development of Orthogonal and Scaling Transformation-based Quantization (OSTQuant). OSQuant employs a learnable equivalent transformation, consisting of an orthogonal transformation and a scaling transformation, to optimize the distributions of weights and activations across the entire quantization space. Futhermore, we propose the KL-Top loss function, designed to mitigate noise during optimization while retaining richer semantic information within the limited calibration data imposed by PTQ. OSTQuant outperforms existing work on various LLMs and benchmarks. In the W4-only setting, it retains 99.5\% of the floating-point accuracy. In the more challenging W4A4KV4 configuration, OSTQuant reduces the performance gap by 32\% on the LLaMA-3-8B model compared to state-of-the-art methods. https://github.com/BrotherHappy/OSTQuant{https://github.com/BrotherHappy/OSTQuant}.

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data points one at a time. Here we study the problem of distribution-free predictive inference for a batch of multiple test points, aiming to construct prediction sets for functions -- such as the mean or median -- of any number of unobserved test datapoints. This setting includes constructing simultaneous prediction sets with a high probability of coverage, and selecting datapoints satisfying a specified condition while controlling the number of false claims. For the general task of predictive inference on a function of a batch of test points, we introduce a methodology called batch predictive inference (batch PI), and provide a distribution-free coverage guarantee under exchangeability of the calibration and test data. Batch PI requires the quantiles of a rank ordering function defined on certain subsets of ranks. While computing these quantiles is NP-hard in general, we show that it can be done efficiently in many cases of interest, most notably for batch score functions with a compositional structure -- which includes examples of interest such as the mean -- via a dynamic programming algorithm that we develop. Batch PI has advantages over naive approaches (such as partitioning the calibration data or directly extending conformal prediction) in many settings, as it can deliver informative prediction sets even using small calibration sample sizes. We illustrate that our procedures provide informative inference across the use cases mentioned above, through experiments on both simulated data and a drug-target interaction dataset.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Background: Collaborative Software Package Registries (SPRs) are an integral part of the software supply chain. Much engineering work synthesizes SPR package into applications. Prior research has examined SPRs for traditional software, such as NPM (JavaScript) and PyPI (Python). Pre-Trained Model (PTM) Registries are an emerging class of SPR of increasing importance, because they support the deep learning supply chain. Aims: Recent empirical research has examined PTM registries in ways such as vulnerabilities, reuse processes, and evolution. However, no existing research synthesizes them to provide a systematic understanding of the current knowledge. Some of the existing research includes qualitative claims lacking quantitative analysis. Our research fills these gaps by providing a knowledge synthesis and quantitative analyses. Methods: We first conduct a systematic literature review (SLR). We then observe that some of the claims are qualitative. We identify quantifiable metrics associated with those claims, and measure in order to substantiate these claims. Results: From our SLR, we identify 12 claims about PTM reuse on the HuggingFace platform, 4 of which lack quantitative validation. We successfully test 3 of these claims through a quantitative analysis, and directly compare one with traditional software. Our findings corroborate qualitative claims with quantitative measurements. Our findings are: (1) PTMs have a much higher turnover rate than traditional software, indicating a dynamic and rapidly evolving reuse environment within the PTM ecosystem; and (2) There is a strong correlation between documentation quality and PTM popularity. Conclusions: We confirm qualitative research claims with concrete metrics, supporting prior qualitative and case study research. Our measures show further dynamics of PTM reuse, inspiring research infrastructure and new measures.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Deploying neural networks on microcontroller units (MCUs) presents substantial challenges due to their constrained computation and memory resources. Previous researches have explored patch-based inference as a strategy to conserve memory without sacrificing model accuracy. However, this technique suffers from severe redundant computation overhead, leading to a substantial increase in execution latency. A feasible solution to address this issue is mixed-precision quantization, but it faces the challenges of accuracy degradation and a time-consuming search time. In this paper, we propose QuantMCU, a novel patch-based inference method that utilizes value-driven mixed-precision quantization to reduce redundant computation. We first utilize value-driven patch classification (VDPC) to maintain the model accuracy. VDPC classifies patches into two classes based on whether they contain outlier values. For patches containing outlier values, we apply 8-bit quantization to the feature maps on the dataflow branches that follow. In addition, for patches without outlier values, we utilize value-driven quantization search (VDQS) on the feature maps of their following dataflow branches to reduce search time. Specifically, VDQS introduces a novel quantization search metric that takes into account both computation and accuracy, and it employs entropy as an accuracy representation to avoid additional training. VDQS also adopts an iterative approach to determine the bitwidth of each feature map to further accelerate the search process. Experimental results on real-world MCU devices show that QuantMCU can reduce computation by 2.2x on average while maintaining comparable model accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art patch-based inference methods.

We develop a novel, general and computationally efficient framework, called Divide and Conquer Dynamic Programming (DCDP), for localizing change points in time series data with high-dimensional features. DCDP deploys a class of greedy algorithms that are applicable to a broad variety of high-dimensional statistical models and can enjoy almost linear computational complexity. We investigate the performance of DCDP in three commonly studied change point settings in high dimensions: the mean model, the Gaussian graphical model, and the linear regression model. In all three cases, we derive non-asymptotic bounds for the accuracy of the DCDP change point estimators. We demonstrate that the DCDP procedures consistently estimate the change points with sharp, and in some cases, optimal rates while incurring significantly smaller computational costs than the best available algorithms. Our findings are supported by extensive numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Commit message generation (CMG) is a crucial task in software engineering that is challenging to evaluate correctly. When a CMG system is integrated into the IDEs and other products at JetBrains, we perform online evaluation based on user acceptance of the generated messages. However, performing online experiments with every change to a CMG system is troublesome, as each iteration affects users and requires time to collect enough statistics. On the other hand, offline evaluation, a prevalent approach in the research literature, facilitates fast experiments but employs automatic metrics that are not guaranteed to represent the preferences of real users. In this work, we describe a novel way we employed to deal with this problem at JetBrains, by leveraging an online metric - the number of edits users introduce before committing the generated messages to the VCS - to select metrics for offline experiments. To support this new type of evaluation, we develop a novel markup collection tool mimicking the real workflow with a CMG system, collect a dataset with 57 pairs consisting of commit messages generated by GPT-4 and their counterparts edited by human experts, and design and verify a way to synthetically extend such a dataset. Then, we use the final dataset of 656 pairs to study how the widely used similarity metrics correlate with the online metric reflecting the real users' experience. Our results indicate that edit distance exhibits the highest correlation, whereas commonly used similarity metrics such as BLEU and METEOR demonstrate low correlation. This contradicts the previous studies on similarity metrics for CMG, suggesting that user interactions with a CMG system in real-world settings differ significantly from the responses by human labelers operating within controlled research environments. We release all the code and the dataset for researchers: https://jb.gg/cmg-evaluation.

With the rapid evolution of the Text-to-Image (T2I) model in recent years, their unsatisfactory generation result has become a challenge. However, uniformly refining AI-Generated Images (AIGIs) of different qualities not only limited optimization capabilities for low-quality AIGIs but also brought negative optimization to high-quality AIGIs. To address this issue, a quality-award refiner named Q-Refine is proposed. Based on the preference of the Human Visual System (HVS), Q-Refine uses the Image Quality Assessment (IQA) metric to guide the refining process for the first time, and modify images of different qualities through three adaptive pipelines. Experimental shows that for mainstream T2I models, Q-Refine can perform effective optimization to AIGIs of different qualities. It can be a general refiner to optimize AIGIs from both fidelity and aesthetic quality levels, thus expanding the application of the T2I generation models.

Image similarity metrics play an important role in computer vision applications, as they are used in image processing, computer vision and machine learning. Furthermore, those metrics enable tasks such as image retrieval, object recognition and quality assessment, essential in fields like healthcare, astronomy and surveillance. Existing metrics, such as PSNR, MSE, SSIM, ISSM and FSIM, often face limitations in terms of either speed, complexity or sensitivity to small changes in images. To address these challenges, a novel image similarity metric, namely CSIM, that combines real-time while being sensitive to subtle image variations is investigated in this paper. The novel metric uses Gaussian Copula from probability theory to transform an image into vectors of pixel distribution associated to local image patches. These vectors contain, in addition to intensities and pixel positions, information on the dependencies between pixel values, capturing the structural relationships within the image. By leveraging the properties of Copulas, CSIM effectively models the joint distribution of pixel intensities, enabling a more nuanced comparison of image patches making it more sensitive to local changes compared to other metrics. Experimental results demonstrate that CSIM outperforms existing similarity metrics in various image distortion scenarios, including noise, compression artifacts and blur. The metric's ability to detect subtle differences makes it suitable for applications requiring high precision, such as medical imaging, where the detection of minor anomalies can be of a high importance. The results obtained in this work can be reproduced from this Github repository: https://github.com/safouaneelg/copulasimilarity.

Sharp, multidimensional changepoints-abrupt shifts in a regression surface whose locations and magnitudes are unknown-arise in settings as varied as gene-expression profiling, financial covariance breaks, climate-regime detection, and urban socioeconomic mapping. Despite their prevalence, there are no current approaches that jointly estimate the location and size of the discontinuity set in a one-shot approach with statistical guarantees. We therefore introduce Free Discontinuity Regression (FDR), a fully nonparametric estimator that simultaneously (i) smooths a regression surface, (ii) segments it into contiguous regions, and (iii) provably recovers the precise locations and sizes of its jumps. By extending a convex relaxation of the Mumford-Shah functional to random spatial sampling and correlated noise, FDR overcomes the fixed-grid and i.i.d. noise assumptions of classical image-segmentation approaches, thus enabling its application to real-world data of any dimension. This yields the first identification and uniform consistency results for multivariate jump surfaces: under mild SBV regularity, the estimated function, its discontinuity set, and all jump sizes converge to their true population counterparts. Hyperparameters are selected automatically from the data using Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate, and large-scale simulations up to three dimensions validate the theoretical results and demonstrate good finite-sample performance. Applying FDR to an internet shutdown in India reveals a 25-35% reduction in economic activity around the estimated shutdown boundaries-much larger than previous estimates. By unifying smoothing, segmentation, and effect-size recovery in a general statistical setting, FDR turns free-discontinuity ideas into a practical tool with formal guarantees for modern multivariate data.

The year 2024 marks the 10th anniversary of the Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM) framework for analytic translation quality evaluation. The MQM error typology has been widely used by practitioners in the translation and localization industry and has served as the basis for many derivative projects. The annual Conference on Machine Translation (WMT) shared tasks on both human and automatic translation quality evaluations used the MQM error typology. The metric stands on two pillars: error typology and the scoring model. The scoring model calculates the quality score from annotation data, detailing how to convert error type and severity counts into numeric scores to determine if the content meets specifications. Previously, only the raw scoring model had been published. This April, the MQM Council published the Linear Calibrated Scoring Model, officially presented herein, along with the Non-Linear Scoring Model, which had not been published before. This paper details the latest MQM developments and presents a universal approach to translation quality measurement across three sample size ranges. It also explains why Statistical Quality Control should be used for very small sample sizes, starting from a single sentence.

LLMs make it easy to rewrite text in any style, be it more polite, persuasive, or more positive. We present a large-scale study of evaluation metrics for style and attribute transfer with a focus on content preservation; meaning content not attributed to the style shift is preserved. The de facto evaluation approach uses lexical or semantic similarity metrics often between source sentences and rewrites. While these metrics are not designed to distinguish between style or content differences, empirical meta-evaluation shows a reasonable correlation to human judgment. In fact, recent works find that LLMs prompted as evaluators are only comparable to semantic similarity metrics, even though intuitively, the LLM approach should better fit the task. To investigate this discrepancy, we benchmark 8 metrics for evaluating content preservation on existing datasets and additionally construct a new test set that better aligns with the meta-evaluation aim. Indeed, we then find that the empirical conclusion aligns with the intuition: content preservation metrics for style/attribute transfer must be conditional on the style shift. To support this, we propose a new efficient zero-shot evaluation method using the likelihood of the next token. We hope our meta-evaluation can foster more research on evaluating content preservation metrics, and also to ensure fair evaluation of methods for conducting style transfer.

While Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) is now widely adopted to enhance LLMs, evaluating its true performance benefits in a reproducible and interpretable way remains a major hurdle. Existing methods often fall short: they lack domain coverage, employ coarse metrics that miss sub document precision, and fail to capture computational trade offs. Most critically, they provide no standardized framework for comparing RAG effectiveness across different models and domains. We introduce OmniBench RAG, a novel automated platform for multi domain evaluation of RAG systems. The platform quantifies performance gains across accuracy and efficiency dimensions, spanning nine knowledge fields including culture, geography, and health. We introduce two standardized metrics: Improvements (accuracy gains) and Transformation (efficiency differences between pre RAG and post RAG models), enabling reproducible comparisons across models and tasks. The platform features dynamic test generation, modular evaluation pipelines, and automated knowledge base construction. Our evaluation reveals striking variability in RAG effectiveness, from significant gains in culture to declines in mathematics, highlighting the critical importance of systematic, domain aware assessment. A demonstration video is available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZx83QFcTCI. Code and datasets: https://github.com/Garnett-Liang/Omnibench-RAG.

Text-driven video editing has recently experienced rapid development. Despite this, evaluating edited videos remains a considerable challenge. Current metrics tend to fail to align with human perceptions, and effective quantitative metrics for video editing are still notably absent. To address this, we introduce E-Bench, a benchmark suite tailored to the assessment of text-driven video editing. This suite includes E-Bench DB, a video quality assessment (VQA) database for video editing. E-Bench DB encompasses a diverse set of source videos featuring various motions and subjects, along with multiple distinct editing prompts, editing results from 8 different models, and the corresponding Mean Opinion Scores (MOS) from 24 human annotators. Based on E-Bench DB, we further propose E-Bench QA, a quantitative human-aligned measurement for the text-driven video editing task. In addition to the aesthetic, distortion, and other visual quality indicators that traditional VQA methods emphasize, E-Bench QA focuses on the text-video alignment and the relevance modeling between source and edited videos. It proposes a new assessment network for video editing that attains superior performance in alignment with human preferences. To the best of our knowledge, E-Bench introduces the first quality assessment dataset for video editing and an effective subjective-aligned quantitative metric for this domain. All data and code will be publicly available at https://github.com/littlespray/E-Bench.

Diffusion models have achieved significant visual generation quality. However, their significant computational and memory costs pose challenge for their application on resource-constrained mobile devices or even desktop GPUs. Recent few-step diffusion models reduces the inference time by reducing the denoising steps. However, their memory consumptions are still excessive. The Post Training Quantization (PTQ) replaces high bit-width FP representation with low-bit integer values (INT4/8) , which is an effective and efficient technique to reduce the memory cost. However, when applying to few-step diffusion models, existing quantization methods face challenges in preserving both the image quality and text alignment. To address this issue, we propose an mixed-precision quantization framework - MixDQ. Firstly, We design specialized BOS-aware quantization method for highly sensitive text embedding quantization. Then, we conduct metric-decoupled sensitivity analysis to measure the sensitivity of each layer. Finally, we develop an integer-programming-based method to conduct bit-width allocation. While existing quantization methods fall short at W8A8, MixDQ could achieve W8A8 without performance loss, and W4A8 with negligible visual degradation. Compared with FP16, we achieve 3-4x reduction in model size and memory cost, and 1.45x latency speedup.

Financial institutions deploy Large Language Models (LLMs) for reconciliations, regulatory reporting, and client communications, but nondeterministic outputs (output drift) undermine auditability and trust. We quantify drift across five model architectures (7B-120B parameters) on regulated financial tasks, revealing a stark inverse relationship: smaller models (Granite-3-8B, Qwen2.5-7B) achieve 100% output consistency at T=0.0, while GPT-OSS-120B exhibits only 12.5% consistency (95% CI: 3.5-36.0%) regardless of configuration (p<0.0001, Fisher's exact test). This finding challenges conventional assumptions that larger models are universally superior for production deployment. Our contributions include: (i) a finance-calibrated deterministic test harness combining greedy decoding (T=0.0), fixed seeds, and SEC 10-K structure-aware retrieval ordering; (ii) task-specific invariant checking for RAG, JSON, and SQL outputs using finance-calibrated materiality thresholds (plus or minus 5%) and SEC citation validation; (iii) a three-tier model classification system enabling risk-appropriate deployment decisions; and (iv) an audit-ready attestation system with dual-provider validation. We evaluated five models (Qwen2.5-7B via Ollama, Granite-3-8B via IBM watsonx.ai, Llama-3.3-70B, Mistral-Medium-2505, and GPT-OSS-120B) across three regulated financial tasks. Across 480 runs (n=16 per condition), structured tasks (SQL) remain stable even at T=0.2, while RAG tasks show drift (25-75%), revealing task-dependent sensitivity. Cross-provider validation confirms deterministic behavior transfers between local and cloud deployments. We map our framework to Financial Stability Board (FSB), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requirements, demonstrating practical pathways for compliance-ready AI deployments.

We study the ranking of individuals, teams, or objects, based on pairwise comparisons between them, using the Bradley-Terry model. Estimates of rankings within this model are commonly made using a simple iterative algorithm first introduced by Zermelo almost a century ago. Here we describe an alternative and similarly simple iteration that provably returns identical results but does so much faster -- over a hundred times faster in some cases. We demonstrate this algorithm with applications to a range of example data sets and derive a number of results regarding its convergence.

The goal of the change-point detection is to discover changes of time series distribution. One of the state of the art approaches of the change-point detection are based on direct density ratio estimation. In this work we show how existing algorithms can be generalized using various binary classification and regression models. In particular, we show that the Gradient Boosting over Decision Trees and Neural Networks can be used for this purpose. The algorithms are tested on several synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that the proposed methods outperform classical RuLSIF algorithm. Discussion of cases where the proposed algorithms have advantages over existing methods are also provided.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Quantifying the similarity between a group of companies has proven to be useful for several purposes, including company benchmarking, fraud detection, and searching for investment opportunities. This exercise can be done using a variety of data sources, such as company activity data and financial data. However, ledger account data is widely available and is standardized to a large extent. Such ledger accounts within a financial statement can be represented by means of a tree, i.e. a special type of graph, representing both the values of the ledger accounts and the relationships between them. Given their broad availability and rich information content, financial statements form a prime data source based on which company similarities or distances could be computed. In this paper, we present a graph distance metric that enables one to compute the similarity between the financial statements of two companies. We conduct a comprehensive experimental study using real-world financial data to demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed distance metric. The experimental results show promising results on a number of use cases. This method may be useful for investors looking for investment opportunities, government officials attempting to identify fraudulent companies, and accountants looking to benchmark a group of companies based on their financial statements.

Providing quality scores along with Machine Translation (MT) output, so-called reference-free Quality Estimation (QE), is crucial to inform users about the reliability of the translation. We propose a model-specific, unsupervised QE approach, termed kNN-QE, that extracts information from the MT model's training data using k-nearest neighbors. Measuring the performance of model-specific QE is not straightforward, since they provide quality scores on their own MT output, thus cannot be evaluated using benchmark QE test sets containing human quality scores on premade MT output. Therefore, we propose an automatic evaluation method that uses quality scores from reference-based metrics as gold standard instead of human-generated ones. We are the first to conduct detailed analyses and conclude that this automatic method is sufficient, and the reference-based MetricX-23 is best for the task.

Humans naturally share information with those they are connected to, and video has become one of the dominant mediums for communication and expression on the Internet. To support the creation of high-quality large-scale video content, a modern pipeline requires a comprehensive understanding of both the raw input materials (e.g., the unedited footage captured by cameras) and the editing components (e.g., visual effects). In video editing scenarios, models must process multiple modalities (e.g., vision, audio, text) with strong background knowledge and handle flexible input lengths (e.g., hour-long raw videos), which poses significant challenges for traditional models. In this report, we introduce Vidi, a family of Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) for a wide range of video understand editing scenarios. The first release focuses on temporal retrieval, i.e., identifying the time ranges within the input videos corresponding to a given text query, which plays a critical role in intelligent editing. The model is capable of processing hour-long videos with strong temporal understanding capability, e.g., retrieve time ranges for certain queries. To support a comprehensive evaluation in real-world scenarios, we also present the VUE-TR benchmark, which introduces five key advancements. 1) Video duration: significantly longer than existing temporal retrival datasets, 2) Audio support: includes audio-based queries, 3) Query format: diverse query lengths/formats, 4) Annotation quality: ground-truth time ranges are manually annotated. 5) Evaluation metric: a refined IoU metric to support evaluation over multiple time ranges. Remarkably, Vidi significantly outperforms leading proprietary models, e.g., GPT-4o and Gemini, on the temporal retrieval task, indicating its superiority in video editing scenarios.

Many state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms rely on model-based optimizers that learn surrogate models of the target function to guide the search. Gaussian processes are the de facto surrogate model due to their ability to capture uncertainty but they make strong assumptions about the observation noise, which might not be warranted in practice. In this work, we propose to leverage conformalized quantile regression which makes minimal assumptions about the observation noise and, as a result, models the target function in a more realistic and robust fashion which translates to quicker HPO convergence on empirical benchmarks. To apply our method in a multi-fidelity setting, we propose a simple, yet effective, technique that aggregates observed results across different resource levels and outperforms conventional methods across many empirical tasks.

Devising indicative evaluation metrics for the image generation task remains an open problem. The most widely used metric for measuring the similarity between real and generated images has been the Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) score. Because it does not differentiate the fidelity and diversity aspects of the generated images, recent papers have introduced variants of precision and recall metrics to diagnose those properties separately. In this paper, we show that even the latest version of the precision and recall metrics are not reliable yet. For example, they fail to detect the match between two identical distributions, they are not robust against outliers, and the evaluation hyperparameters are selected arbitrarily. We propose density and coverage metrics that solve the above issues. We analytically and experimentally show that density and coverage provide more interpretable and reliable signals for practitioners than the existing metrics. Code: https://github.com/clovaai/generative-evaluation-prdc.

Change detection is an important tool for long-term earth observation missions. It takes bi-temporal images as input and predicts "where" the change has occurred. Different from other dense prediction tasks, a meaningful consideration for change detection is the interaction between bi-temporal features. With this motivation, in this paper we propose a novel general change detection architecture, MetaChanger, which includes a series of alternative interaction layers in the feature extractor. To verify the effectiveness of MetaChanger, we propose two derived models, ChangerAD and ChangerEx with simple interaction strategies: Aggregation-Distribution (AD) and "exchange". AD is abstracted from some complex interaction methods, and "exchange" is a completely parameter\&computation-free operation by exchanging bi-temporal features. In addition, for better alignment of bi-temporal features, we propose a flow dual-alignment fusion (FDAF) module which allows interactive alignment and feature fusion. Crucially, we observe Changer series models achieve competitive performance on different scale change detection datasets. Further, our proposed ChangerAD and ChangerEx could serve as a starting baseline for future MetaChanger design.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant advancements in reasoning and code generation. However, efficiently creating new benchmarks to evaluate these capabilities remains a challenge. Traditional benchmark creation relies on manual human effort, a process that is both expensive and time-consuming. Furthermore, existing benchmarks often contaminate LLM training data, necessitating novel and diverse benchmarks to accurately assess their genuine capabilities. This work introduces InfoSynth, a novel framework for automatically generating and evaluating reasoning benchmarks guided by information-theoretic principles. We propose metrics based on KL-divergence and entropy to quantify benchmark novelty and diversity without relying on costly model evaluations. Building on this framework, we develop an end-to-end pipeline that synthesizes robust Python coding problems from seed datasets using genetic algorithms and iterative code feedback. Our method generates accurate test cases and solutions to new problems 97% of the time, and the synthesized benchmarks consistently exhibit higher novelty and diversity compared to their seed datasets. Moreover, our algorithm provides a method for controlling the novelty/diversity and difficulty of generated problems. InfoSynth offers a scalable, self-verifying pipeline for constructing high-quality, novel and diverse benchmarks for LLMs. Project Page: https://ishirgarg.github.io/infosynth_web/

We develop techniques to quantify the degree to which a given (training or testing) example is an outlier in the underlying distribution. We evaluate five methods to score examples in a dataset by how well-represented the examples are, for different plausible definitions of "well-represented", and apply these to four common datasets: MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10, and ImageNet. Despite being independent approaches, we find all five are highly correlated, suggesting that the notion of being well-represented can be quantified. Among other uses, we find these methods can be combined to identify (a) prototypical examples (that match human expectations); (b) memorized training examples; and, (c) uncommon submodes of the dataset. Further, we show how we can utilize our metrics to determine an improved ordering for curriculum learning, and impact adversarial robustness. We release all metric values on training and test sets we studied.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

Recent advances in image generation, often driven by proprietary systems like GPT-4o Image Gen, regularly introduce new capabilities that reshape how users interact with these models. Existing benchmarks often lag behind and fail to capture these emerging use cases, leaving a gap between community perceptions of progress and formal evaluation. To address this, we present ECHO, a framework for constructing benchmarks directly from real-world evidence of model use: social media posts that showcase novel prompts and qualitative user judgments. Applying this framework to GPT-4o Image Gen, we construct a dataset of over 31,000 prompts curated from such posts. Our analysis shows that ECHO (1) discovers creative and complex tasks absent from existing benchmarks, such as re-rendering product labels across languages or generating receipts with specified totals, (2) more clearly distinguishes state-of-the-art models from alternatives, and (3) surfaces community feedback that we use to inform the design of metrics for model quality (e.g., measuring observed shifts in color, identity, and structure). Our website is at https://echo-bench.github.io.

Aligning large language models with pointwise absolute rewards has so far required online, on-policy algorithms such as PPO and GRPO. In contrast, simpler methods that can leverage offline or off-policy data, such as DPO and REBEL, are limited to learning from preference pairs or relative signals. To bridge this gap, we introduce Quantile Reward Policy Optimization (QRPO), which learns from pointwise absolute rewards while preserving the simplicity and offline applicability of DPO-like methods. QRPO uses quantile rewards to enable regression to the closed-form solution of the KL-regularized RL objective. This reward yields an analytically tractable partition function, removing the need for relative signals to cancel this term. Moreover, QRPO scales with increased compute to estimate quantile rewards, opening a new dimension for pre-computation scaling. Empirically, QRPO consistently achieves top performance on chat and coding evaluations--reward model scores, AlpacaEval 2, and LeetCode--compared to DPO, REBEL, and SimPO across diverse datasets and 8B-scale models. Finally, we find that training with robust rewards instead of converting them to preferences induces less length bias.

With the rapid growth in language processing applications, fairness has emerged as an important consideration in data-driven solutions. Although various fairness definitions have been explored in the recent literature, there is lack of consensus on which metrics most accurately reflect the fairness of a system. In this work, we propose a new formulation : ACCUMULATED PREDICTION SENSITIVITY, which measures fairness in machine learning models based on the model's prediction sensitivity to perturbations in input features. The metric attempts to quantify the extent to which a single prediction depends on a protected attribute, where the protected attribute encodes the membership status of an individual in a protected group. We show that the metric can be theoretically linked with a specific notion of group fairness (statistical parity) and individual fairness. It also correlates well with humans' perception of fairness. We conduct experiments on two text classification datasets : JIGSAW TOXICITY, and BIAS IN BIOS, and evaluate the correlations between metrics and manual annotations on whether the model produced a fair outcome. We observe that the proposed fairness metric based on prediction sensitivity is statistically significantly more correlated with human annotation than the existing counterfactual fairness metric.

The overestimation bias is one of the major impediments to accurate off-policy learning. This paper investigates a novel way to alleviate the overestimation bias in a continuous control setting. Our method---Truncated Quantile Critics, TQC,---blends three ideas: distributional representation of a critic, truncation of critics prediction, and ensembling of multiple critics. Distributional representation and truncation allow for arbitrary granular overestimation control, while ensembling provides additional score improvements. TQC outperforms the current state of the art on all environments from the continuous control benchmark suite, demonstrating 25% improvement on the most challenging Humanoid environment.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

Despite rapid gains in scale, research evaluation still relies on opaque, lagging proxies. To serve the scientific community, we pursue transparency: reproducible, auditable epistemic classification useful for funding and policy. Here we formalize KGX3 as a scenario-based model for mapping Kuhnian stages from research papers, prove determinism of the classification pipeline, and define the epistemic manifold that yields paradigm maps. We report validation across recent corpora, operational complexity at global scale, and governance that preserves interpretability while protecting core IP. The system delivers early, actionable signals of drift, crisis, and shift unavailable to citation metrics or citations-anchored NLP. KGX3 is the latest iteration of a deterministic epistemic engine developed since 2019, originating as Soph.io (2020), advanced as iKuhn (2024), and field-tested through Preprint Watch in 2025.

Urban transformations have profound societal impact on both individuals and communities at large. Accurately assessing these shifts is essential for understanding their underlying causes and ensuring sustainable urban planning. Traditional measurements often encounter constraints in spatial and temporal granularity, failing to capture real-time physical changes. While street view imagery, capturing the heartbeat of urban spaces from a pedestrian point of view, can add as a high-definition, up-to-date, and on-the-ground visual proxy of urban change. We curate the largest street view time series dataset to date, and propose an end-to-end change detection model to effectively capture physical alterations in the built environment at scale. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method by benchmark comparisons with previous literature and implementing it at the city-wide level. Our approach has the potential to supplement existing dataset and serve as a fine-grained and accurate assessment of urban change.

"Effective robustness" measures the extra out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness beyond what can be predicted from the in-distribution (ID) performance. Existing effective robustness evaluations typically use a single test set such as ImageNet to evaluate the ID accuracy. This becomes problematic when evaluating models trained on different data distributions, e.g., comparing models trained on ImageNet vs. zero-shot language-image pre-trained models trained on LAION. In this paper, we propose a new evaluation metric to evaluate and compare the effective robustness of models trained on different data. To do this, we control for the accuracy on multiple ID test sets that cover the training distributions for all the evaluated models. Our new evaluation metric provides a better estimate of effective robustness when there are models with different training data. It may also explain the surprising effective robustness gains of zero-shot CLIP-like models exhibited in prior works that used ImageNet as the only ID test set, while the gains diminish under our new evaluation. Additional artifacts including interactive visualizations are provided at https://shizhouxing.github.io/effective-robustness.

Despite recent advances in text-to-3D generative methods, there is a notable absence of reliable evaluation metrics. Existing metrics usually focus on a single criterion each, such as how well the asset aligned with the input text. These metrics lack the flexibility to generalize to different evaluation criteria and might not align well with human preferences. Conducting user preference studies is an alternative that offers both adaptability and human-aligned results. User studies, however, can be very expensive to scale. This paper presents an automatic, versatile, and human-aligned evaluation metric for text-to-3D generative models. To this end, we first develop a prompt generator using GPT-4V to generate evaluating prompts, which serve as input to compare text-to-3D models. We further design a method instructing GPT-4V to compare two 3D assets according to user-defined criteria. Finally, we use these pairwise comparison results to assign these models Elo ratings. Experimental results suggest our metric strongly align with human preference across different evaluation criteria.

Change detection in remote sensing images is essential for tracking environmental changes on the Earth's surface. Despite the success of vision transformers (ViTs) as backbones in numerous computer vision applications, they remain underutilized in change detection, where convolutional neural networks (CNNs) continue to dominate due to their powerful feature extraction capabilities. In this paper, our study uncovers ViTs' unique advantage in discerning large-scale changes, a capability where CNNs fall short. Capitalizing on this insight, we introduce ChangeViT, a framework that adopts a plain ViT backbone to enhance the performance of large-scale changes. This framework is supplemented by a detail-capture module that generates detailed spatial features and a feature injector that efficiently integrates fine-grained spatial information into high-level semantic learning. The feature integration ensures that ChangeViT excels in both detecting large-scale changes and capturing fine-grained details, providing comprehensive change detection across diverse scales. Without bells and whistles, ChangeViT achieves state-of-the-art performance on three popular high-resolution datasets (i.e., LEVIR-CD, WHU-CD, and CLCD) and one low-resolution dataset (i.e., OSCD), which underscores the unleashed potential of plain ViTs for change detection. Furthermore, thorough quantitative and qualitative analyses validate the efficacy of the introduced modules, solidifying the effectiveness of our approach. The source code is available at https://github.com/zhuduowang/ChangeViT.

This position paper emphasizes the critical gap in the evaluation of Explainable AI (XAI) due to the lack of standardized and reliable metrics, which diminishes its practical value, trustworthiness, and ability to meet regulatory requirements. Current evaluation methods are often fragmented, subjective, and biased, making them prone to manipulation and complicating the assessment of complex models. A central issue is the absence of a ground truth for explanations, complicating comparisons across various XAI approaches. To address these challenges, we advocate for widespread research into developing robust, context-sensitive evaluation metrics. These metrics should be resistant to manipulation, relevant to each use case, and based on human judgment and real-world applicability. We also recommend creating domain-specific evaluation benchmarks that align with the user and regulatory needs of sectors such as healthcare and finance. By encouraging collaboration among academia, industry, and regulators, we can create standards that balance flexibility and consistency, ensuring XAI explanations are meaningful, trustworthy, and compliant with evolving regulations.

The diffusion model has gained popularity in vision applications due to its remarkable generative performance and versatility. However, high storage and computation demands, resulting from the model size and iterative generation, hinder its use on mobile devices. Existing quantization techniques struggle to maintain performance even in 8-bit precision due to the diffusion model's unique property of temporal variation in activation. We introduce a novel quantization method that dynamically adjusts the quantization interval based on time step information, significantly improving output quality. Unlike conventional dynamic quantization techniques, our approach has no computational overhead during inference and is compatible with both post-training quantization (PTQ) and quantization-aware training (QAT). Our extensive experiments demonstrate substantial improvements in output quality with the quantized diffusion model across various datasets.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant advancements in reasoning and agent-based problem-solving, current evaluation methodologies fail to adequately assess their capabilities: existing benchmarks either rely on closed-ended questions prone to saturation and memorization, or subjective comparisons that lack consistency and rigor. In this work, we introduce HeuriGym, an agentic framework designed for evaluating heuristic algorithms generated by LLMs for combinatorial optimization problems, characterized by clearly defined objectives and expansive solution spaces. HeuriGym empowers LLMs to propose heuristics, receive evaluative feedback via code execution, and iteratively refine their solutions. We evaluate nine state-of-the-art models on nine problems across domains such as computer systems, logistics, and biology, exposing persistent limitations in tool use, planning, and adaptive reasoning. To quantify performance, we propose the Quality-Yield Index (QYI), a metric that captures both solution pass rate and quality. Even top models like GPT-o4-mini-high and Gemini-2.5-Pro attain QYI scores of only 0.6, well below the expert baseline of 1. Our open-source benchmark aims to guide the development of LLMs toward more effective and realistic problem-solving in scientific and engineering domains.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators. Since any MI estimator is a function of the observed sample from two random variables, we parameterize this function with a neural network (MIST) and train it end-to-end to predict MI values. Training is performed on a large meta-dataset of 625,000 synthetic joint distributions with known ground-truth MI. To handle variable sample sizes and dimensions, we employ a two-dimensional attention scheme ensuring permutation invariance across input samples. To quantify uncertainty, we optimize a quantile regression loss, enabling the estimator to approximate the sampling distribution of MI rather than return a single point estimate. This research program departs from prior work by taking a fully empirical route, trading universal theoretical guarantees for flexibility and efficiency. Empirically, the learned estimators largely outperform classical baselines across sample sizes and dimensions, including on joint distributions unseen during training. The resulting quantile-based intervals are well-calibrated and more reliable than bootstrap-based confidence intervals, while inference is orders of magnitude faster than existing neural baselines. Beyond immediate empirical gains, this framework yields trainable, fully differentiable estimators that can be embedded into larger learning pipelines. Moreover, exploiting MI's invariance to invertible transformations, meta-datasets can be adapted to arbitrary data modalities via normalizing flows, enabling flexible training for diverse target meta-distributions.

In this paper, we introduce a conformal prediction method to construct prediction sets in a oneshot federated learning setting. More specifically, we define a quantile-of-quantiles estimator and prove that for any distribution, it is possible to output prediction sets with desired coverage in only one round of communication. To mitigate privacy issues, we also describe a locally differentially private version of our estimator. Finally, over a wide range of experiments, we show that our method returns prediction sets with coverage and length very similar to those obtained in a centralized setting. Overall, these results demonstrate that our method is particularly well-suited to perform conformal predictions in a one-shot federated learning setting.

Benchmark quality is critical for meaningful evaluation and sustained progress in time series forecasting, particularly given the recent rise of pretrained models. Existing benchmarks often have narrow domain coverage or overlook important real-world settings, such as tasks with covariates. Additionally, their aggregation procedures often lack statistical rigor, making it unclear whether observed performance differences reflect true improvements or random variation. Many benchmarks also fail to provide infrastructure for consistent evaluation or are too rigid to integrate into existing pipelines. To address these gaps, we propose fev-bench, a benchmark comprising 100 forecasting tasks across seven domains, including 46 tasks with covariates. Supporting the benchmark, we introduce fev, a lightweight Python library for benchmarking forecasting models that emphasizes reproducibility and seamless integration with existing workflows. Usingfev, fev-bench employs principled aggregation methods with bootstrapped confidence intervals to report model performance along two complementary dimensions: win rates and skill scores. We report results on fev-bench for various pretrained, statistical and baseline models, and identify promising directions for future research.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) for large language models (LLMs) has achieved remarkable progress in enhancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities on tasks with clear correctness criteria, such as mathematical reasoning tasks. Several training metrics, such as entropy or response length, have been observed to correlate with different reasoning behaviors in reinforcement learning. Prior approaches incorporate such priors through reward or advantage shaping, which often relies on hand-crafted penalties and preferences (e.g., higher-is-better or lower-is-better). However, without careful hyperparameter tuning, these directional priors can be overly biased and may lead to failure. To this end, we introduce Conditional advANtage estimatiON (CANON), amplifying the impact of the target metric without presuming its direction. Specifically, CANON regroups the sampled responses into two groups based on the higher or lower value of a target metric, measures which metric trend contributes to better performance through inter-group comparison, and identifies the better response within the same group. In summary, CANON based on entropy consistently outperforms prior methods across three LLMs on both math reasoning and high-complexity logic tasks. When applied to response length, CANON further improves token efficiency, yielding a more favorable Pareto frontier in the performance-cost trade-off.

This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stress, as evidenced during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent volatile periods. This study develops an advanced expectile-based framework that addresses the shortcomings of conventional quantile-based approaches by providing greater sensitivity to tail losses and improved stability in extreme market conditions. The research employs a dataset spanning two decades of FTSE 100 returns, incorporating periods of high volatility, market crashes, and recovery phases. Our methodology introduces novel mathematical formulations for expectile regression models, enhanced threshold determination techniques using time series analysis, and robust backtesting procedures. The empirical results demonstrate that expectile-based Value-at-Risk (EVaR) consistently outperforms traditional VaR measures across various confidence levels and market conditions. The framework exhibits superior performance during volatile periods, with reduced model risk and enhanced predictive accuracy. Furthermore, the study establishes practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions and provides evidence-based recommendations for regulatory compliance and portfolio management. The findings contribute significantly to the literature on financial risk management and offer practical tools for practitioners dealing with volatile market environments.

For fair academic recruitment at universities and research institutions, determination of the right measure based on globally accepted academic quality features is a highly delicate, challenging, but quite important problem to be addressed. In a series of two papers, we consider the modeling part for academic quality quantification in the first paper, in this paper, and the case studies part in the second paper. For academic quality quantification modeling, we develop two computational frameworks which can be used to construct a decision-support tool: (i) an optimization-based framework and (ii) a Siamese network (a type of artificial neural network)-based framework. The output of both models is a single index called Academic Quality Index (AQI) which is a measure of the overall academic quality. The data of academics from first-class and average-class world universities, based on Times Higher Education World University Rankings and QS World University Rankings, are assumed as the reference data for tuning model parameters.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

We introduce xbench, a dynamic, profession-aligned evaluation suite designed to bridge the gap between AI agent capabilities and real-world productivity. While existing benchmarks often focus on isolated technical skills, they may not accurately reflect the economic value agents deliver in professional settings. To address this, xbench targets commercially significant domains with evaluation tasks defined by industry professionals. Our framework creates metrics that strongly correlate with productivity value, enables prediction of Technology-Market Fit (TMF), and facilitates tracking of product capabilities over time. As our initial implementations, we present two benchmarks: Recruitment and Marketing. For Recruitment, we collect 50 tasks from real-world headhunting business scenarios to evaluate agents' abilities in company mapping, information retrieval, and talent sourcing. For Marketing, we assess agents' ability to match influencers with advertiser needs, evaluating their performance across 50 advertiser requirements using a curated pool of 836 candidate influencers. We present initial evaluation results for leading contemporary agents, establishing a baseline for these professional domains. Our continuously updated evalsets and evaluations are available at https://xbench.org.

We introduce a novel framework for analyzing sorting algorithms in pairwise ranking prompting (PRP), re-centering the cost model around LLM inferences rather than traditional pairwise comparisons. While classical metrics based on comparison counts have traditionally been used to gauge efficiency, our analysis reveals that expensive LLM inferences overturn these predictions; accordingly, our framework encourages strategies such as batching and caching to mitigate inference costs. We show that algorithms optimal in the classical setting can lose efficiency when LLM inferences dominate the cost under certain optimizations.

Existing benchmarks do not test language agents on their interaction with human users or ability to follow domain-specific rules, both of which are vital for deploying them in real world applications. We propose tau-bench, a benchmark emulating dynamic conversations between a user (simulated by language models) and a language agent provided with domain-specific API tools and policy guidelines. We employ an efficient and faithful evaluation process that compares the database state at the end of a conversation with the annotated goal state. We also propose a new metric (pass^k) to evaluate the reliability of agent behavior over multiple trials. Our experiments show that even state-of-the-art function calling agents (like gpt-4o) succeed on <50% of the tasks, and are quite inconsistent (pass^8 <25% in retail). Our findings point to the need for methods that can improve the ability of agents to act consistently and follow rules reliably.

In this research, we introduce BEATS, a novel framework for evaluating Bias, Ethics, Fairness, and Factuality in Large Language Models (LLMs). Building upon the BEATS framework, we present a bias benchmark for LLMs that measure performance across 29 distinct metrics. These metrics span a broad range of characteristics, including demographic, cognitive, and social biases, as well as measures of ethical reasoning, group fairness, and factuality related misinformation risk. These metrics enable a quantitative assessment of the extent to which LLM generated responses may perpetuate societal prejudices that reinforce or expand systemic inequities. To achieve a high score on this benchmark a LLM must show very equitable behavior in their responses, making it a rigorous standard for responsible AI evaluation. Empirical results based on data from our experiment show that, 37.65\% of outputs generated by industry leading models contained some form of bias, highlighting a substantial risk of using these models in critical decision making systems. BEATS framework and benchmark offer a scalable and statistically rigorous methodology to benchmark LLMs, diagnose factors driving biases, and develop mitigation strategies. With the BEATS framework, our goal is to help the development of more socially responsible and ethically aligned AI models.

Weight oscillation is an undesirable side effect of quantization-aware training, in which quantized weights frequently jump between two quantized levels, resulting in training instability and a sub-optimal final model. We discover that the learnable scaling factor, a widely-used de facto setting in quantization aggravates weight oscillation. In this study, we investigate the connection between the learnable scaling factor and quantized weight oscillation and use ViT as a case driver to illustrate the findings and remedies. In addition, we also found that the interdependence between quantized weights in query and key of a self-attention layer makes ViT vulnerable to oscillation. We, therefore, propose three techniques accordingly: statistical weight quantization (rm StatsQ) to improve quantization robustness compared to the prevalent learnable-scale-based method; confidence-guided annealing (rm CGA) that freezes the weights with high confidence and calms the oscillating weights; and query-key reparameterization (rm QKR) to resolve the query-key intertwined oscillation and mitigate the resulting gradient misestimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these proposed techniques successfully abate weight oscillation and consistently achieve substantial accuracy improvement on ImageNet. Specifically, our 2-bit DeiT-T/DeiT-S algorithms outperform the previous state-of-the-art by 9.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/nbasyl/OFQ.

Financial markets pose fundamental challenges for asset return prediction due to their high dimensionality, non-stationarity, and persistent volatility. Despite advances in large language models and multi-agent systems, current quantitative research pipelines suffer from limited automation, weak interpretability, and fragmented coordination across key components such as factor mining and model innovation. In this paper, we propose R&D-Agent for Quantitative Finance, in short RD-Agent(Q), the first data-centric multi-agent framework designed to automate the full-stack research and development of quantitative strategies via coordinated factor-model co-optimization. RD-Agent(Q) decomposes the quant process into two iterative stages: a Research stage that dynamically sets goal-aligned prompts, formulates hypotheses based on domain priors, and maps them to concrete tasks, and a Development stage that employs a code-generation agent, Co-STEER, to implement task-specific code, which is then executed in real-market backtests. The two stages are connected through a feedback stage that thoroughly evaluates experimental outcomes and informs subsequent iterations, with a multi-armed bandit scheduler for adaptive direction selection. Empirically, RD-Agent(Q) achieves up to 2X higher annualized returns than classical factor libraries using 70% fewer factors, and outperforms state-of-the-art deep time-series models on real markets. Its joint factor-model optimization delivers a strong balance between predictive accuracy and strategy robustness. Our code is available at: https://github.com/microsoft/RD-Agent.

For many evaluation metrics commonly used as benchmarks for unconditional image generation, trivially memorizing the training set attains a better score than models which are considered state-of-the-art; we consider this problematic. We clarify a necessary condition for an evaluation metric not to behave this way: estimating the function must require a large sample from the model. In search of such a metric, we turn to neural network divergences (NNDs), which are defined in terms of a neural network trained to distinguish between distributions. The resulting benchmarks cannot be "won" by training set memorization, while still being perceptually correlated and computable only from samples. We survey past work on using NNDs for evaluation and implement an example black-box metric based on these ideas. Through experimental validation we show that it can effectively measure diversity, sample quality, and generalization.

Understanding geometric properties of natural language processing models' latent spaces allows the manipulation of these properties for improved performance on downstream tasks. One such property is the amount of data spread in a model's latent space, or how fully the available latent space is being used. In this work, we define data spread and demonstrate that the commonly used measures of data spread, Average Cosine Similarity and a partition function min/max ratio I(V), do not provide reliable metrics to compare the use of latent space across models. We propose and examine eight alternative measures of data spread, all but one of which improve over these current metrics when applied to seven synthetic data distributions. Of our proposed measures, we recommend one principal component-based measure and one entropy-based measure that provide reliable, relative measures of spread and can be used to compare models of different sizes and dimensionalities.

LLMs and Agents have achieved impressive progress in code generation, mathematical reasoning, and scientific discovery. However, existing benchmarks primarily measure correctness, overlooking the diversity of methods behind solutions. True innovation depends not only on producing correct answers but also on the originality of the approach. We present InnoGym, the first benchmark and framework designed to systematically evaluate the innovation potential of AI agents. InnoGym introduces two complementary metrics: performance gain, which measures improvement over the best-known solutions, and novelty, which captures methodological differences from prior approaches. The benchmark includes 18 carefully curated tasks from real-world engineering and scientific domains, each standardized through resource filtering, evaluator validation, and solution collection. In addition, we provide iGym, a unified execution environment for reproducible and long-horizon evaluations. Extensive experiments show that while some agents produce novel approaches, their lack of robustness limits performance gains. These results highlight a key gap between creativity and effectiveness, underscoring the need for benchmarks that evaluate both.

Benchmarks are pivotal in driving AI progress, and invalid benchmark questions frequently undermine their reliability. Manually identifying and correcting errors among thousands of benchmark questions is not only infeasible but also a critical bottleneck for reliable evaluation. In this work, we introduce a framework for systematic benchmark revision that leverages statistical analysis of response patterns to flag potentially invalid questions for further expert review. Our approach builds on a core assumption commonly used in AI evaluations that the mean score sufficiently summarizes model performance. This implies a unidimensional latent construct underlying the measurement experiment, yielding expected ranges for various statistics for each item. When empirically estimated values for these statistics fall outside the expected range for an item, the item is more likely to be problematic. Across nine widely used benchmarks, our method guides expert review to identify problematic questions with up to 84\% precision. In addition, we introduce an LLM-judge first pass to review questions, further reducing human effort. Together, these components provide an efficient and scalable framework for systematic benchmark revision.

Generating unbiased summaries in real-world settings such as political perspective summarization remains a crucial application of Large Language Models (LLMs). Yet, existing evaluation frameworks rely on traditional metrics for measuring key attributes such as coverage and faithfulness without verifying their applicability, and efforts to develop improved summarizers are still nascent. We address these gaps by (1) identifying reliable metrics for measuring perspective summary quality, and (2) investigating the efficacy of LLM-based methods beyond zero-shot inference. Namely, we build a test set for benchmarking metric reliability using human annotations and show that traditional metrics underperform compared to language model-based metrics, which prove to be strong evaluators. Using these metrics, we show that reranking-based methods yield strong results, and preference tuning with synthetically generated and reranking-labeled data further boosts performance. Our findings aim to contribute to the reliable evaluation and development of perspective summarization methods.

We present TIGERScore, a Trained metric that follows Instruction Guidance to perform Explainable, and Reference-free evaluation over a wide spectrum of text generation tasks. Different from other automatic evaluation methods that only provide arcane scores, TIGERScore is guided by the natural language instruction to provide error analysis to pinpoint the mistakes in the generated text. Our metric is based on LLaMA, trained on our meticulously curated instruction-tuning dataset MetricInstruct which covers 6 text generation tasks and 23 text generation datasets. The dataset consists of 48K quadruple in the form of (instruction, input, system output rightarrow error analysis). We collected the `system outputs' through diverse channels to cover different types of errors. To quantitatively assess our metric, we evaluate its correlation with human ratings on 5 held-in datasets, 2 held-out datasets and show that TIGERScore can achieve the highest overall Spearman's correlation with human ratings across these datasets and outperforms other metrics significantly. As a reference-free metric, its correlation can even surpass the best existing reference-based metrics. To further qualitatively assess the rationale generated by our metric, we conduct human evaluation on the generated explanations and found that the explanations are 70.8\% accurate. Through these experimental results, we believe TIGERScore demonstrates the possibility of building universal explainable metrics to evaluate any text generation task.

We introduce a Cascaded Diffusion Model (Cas-DM) that improves a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) by effectively incorporating additional metric functions in training. Metric functions such as the LPIPS loss have been proven highly effective in consistency models derived from the score matching. However, for the diffusion counterparts, the methodology and efficacy of adding extra metric functions remain unclear. One major challenge is the mismatch between the noise predicted by a DDPM at each step and the desired clean image that the metric function works well on. To address this problem, we propose Cas-DM, a network architecture that cascades two network modules to effectively apply metric functions to the diffusion model training. The first module, similar to a standard DDPM, learns to predict the added noise and is unaffected by the metric function. The second cascaded module learns to predict the clean image, thereby facilitating the metric function computation. Experiment results show that the proposed diffusion model backbone enables the effective use of the LPIPS loss, leading to state-of-the-art image quality (FID, sFID, IS) on various established benchmarks.

In-context learning (ICL) is a critical emerging capability of large language models (LLMs), enabling few-shot learning during inference by including a few demonstrations (demos) in the prompt. However, it has been found that ICL's performance can be sensitive to the choices of demos and their order. This paper investigates an unexplored new positional bias of ICL for the first time: we observe that the predictions and accuracy can drift drastically when the positions of demos, the system prompt, and the user message in LLM input are varied. We refer to this bias as DEMOS' POSITION IN PROMPT (DPP) bias. We design a systematic evaluation pipeline to study this type of positional bias across classification, question answering, summarization, and reasoning tasks. We introduce two metrics, ACCURACY-CHANGE and PREDICTION-CHANGE, to quantify net gains and output volatility induced by changes in the demos' position. Extensive experiments on ten LLMs from four open-source model families (QWEN, LLAMA3, MISTRAL, COHERE) verify that the bias significantly affects their accuracy and predictions: placing demos at the start of the prompt yields the most stable and accurate outputs with gains of up to +6 points. In contrast, placing demos at the end of the user message flips over 30\% of predictions without improving correctness on QA tasks. Smaller models are most affected by this sensitivity, though even large models remain marginally affected on complex tasks.

As new optimizers gain traction and model quantization becomes standard for efficient deployment, a key question arises: how does the choice of optimizer affect model performance in the presence of quantization? Despite progress in both areas, systematic evidence on optimizer-quantization interactions remains limited. To fill this gap, we study the impact of optimizer choice on model robustness under quantization, considering both post-training quantization (PTQ), and quantization-aware training (QAT). We first train full-precision models, ranging from 50M to 1.5B parameters, with six optimizers, to explore the hyperparameter landscape, and establish well-tuned baselines. We then apply PTQ to evaluate how model performance degrades when trained with different optimizers. We find that outlier-related metrics, such as the max-to-mean ratio (MMR) and Kurtosis, fail to predict the PTQ performance across different optimizers. We show analytically that this is due to the MMR capturing only isolated layer errors, while ignoring how quantization errors accumulate and propagate through the network. To study the QAT degradation, we train quantized models from scratch and compare them to our original-precision baselines. We find that optimizers performing well in the original pretraining setup may not remain optimal under QAT, and that models trained with Shampoo show the lowest accuracy degradation. Finally, we derive scaling laws for quantization-aware training under different optimizers, showing that Shampoo achieves the highest parameter efficiency of all tested optimizers.

There is an emerging interest in generating robust counterfactual explanations that would remain valid if the model is updated or changed even slightly. Towards finding robust counterfactuals, existing literature often assumes that the original model m and the new model M are bounded in the parameter space, i.e., |Params(M){-}Params(m)|{<}Delta. However, models can often change significantly in the parameter space with little to no change in their predictions or accuracy on the given dataset. In this work, we introduce a mathematical abstraction termed naturally-occurring model change, which allows for arbitrary changes in the parameter space such that the change in predictions on points that lie on the data manifold is limited. Next, we propose a measure -- that we call Stability -- to quantify the robustness of counterfactuals to potential model changes for differentiable models, e.g., neural networks. Our main contribution is to show that counterfactuals with sufficiently high value of Stability as defined by our measure will remain valid after potential ``naturally-occurring'' model changes with high probability (leveraging concentration bounds for Lipschitz function of independent Gaussians). Since our quantification depends on the local Lipschitz constant around a data point which is not always available, we also examine practical relaxations of our proposed measure and demonstrate experimentally how they can be incorporated to find robust counterfactuals for neural networks that are close, realistic, and remain valid after potential model changes.

Automatic evaluation remains an open research question in Natural Language Generation. In the context of Sentence Simplification, this is particularly challenging: the task requires by nature to replace complex words with simpler ones that shares the same meaning. This limits the effectiveness of n-gram based metrics like BLEU. Going hand in hand with the recent advances in NLG, new metrics have been proposed, such as BERTScore for Machine Translation. In summarization, the QuestEval metric proposes to automatically compare two texts by questioning them. In this paper, we first propose a simple modification of QuestEval allowing it to tackle Sentence Simplification. We then extensively evaluate the correlations w.r.t. human judgement for several metrics including the recent BERTScore and QuestEval, and show that the latter obtain state-of-the-art correlations, outperforming standard metrics like BLEU and SARI. More importantly, we also show that a large part of the correlations are actually spurious for all the metrics. To investigate this phenomenon further, we release a new corpus of evaluated simplifications, this time not generated by systems but instead, written by humans. This allows us to remove the spurious correlations and draw very different conclusions from the original ones, resulting in a better understanding of these metrics. In particular, we raise concerns about very low correlations for most of traditional metrics. Our results show that the only significant measure of the Meaning Preservation is our adaptation of QuestEval.

In many text-generation problems, users may prefer not only a single response, but a diverse range of high-quality outputs from which to choose. Quality-diversity (QD) search algorithms aim at such outcomes, by continually improving and diversifying a population of candidates. However, the applicability of QD to qualitative domains, like creative writing, has been limited by the difficulty of algorithmically specifying measures of quality and diversity. Interestingly, recent developments in language models (LMs) have enabled guiding search through AI feedback, wherein LMs are prompted in natural language to evaluate qualitative aspects of text. Leveraging this development, we introduce Quality-Diversity through AI Feedback (QDAIF), wherein an evolutionary algorithm applies LMs to both generate variation and evaluate the quality and diversity of candidate text. When assessed on creative writing domains, QDAIF covers more of a specified search space with high-quality samples than do non-QD controls. Further, human evaluation of QDAIF-generated creative texts validates reasonable agreement between AI and human evaluation. Our results thus highlight the potential of AI feedback to guide open-ended search for creative and original solutions, providing a recipe that seemingly generalizes to many domains and modalities. In this way, QDAIF is a step towards AI systems that can independently search, diversify, evaluate, and improve, which are among the core skills underlying human society's capacity for innovation.

Score-based diffusion models are a class of generative models whose dynamics is described by stochastic differential equations that map noise into data. While recent works have started to lay down a theoretical foundation for these models, an analytical understanding of the role of the diffusion time T is still lacking. Current best practice advocates for a large T to ensure that the forward dynamics brings the diffusion sufficiently close to a known and simple noise distribution; however, a smaller value of T should be preferred for a better approximation of the score-matching objective and higher computational efficiency. Starting from a variational interpretation of diffusion models, in this work we quantify this trade-off, and suggest a new method to improve quality and efficiency of both training and sampling, by adopting smaller diffusion times. Indeed, we show how an auxiliary model can be used to bridge the gap between the ideal and the simulated forward dynamics, followed by a standard reverse diffusion process. Empirical results support our analysis; for image data, our method is competitive w.r.t. the state-of-the-art, according to standard sample quality metrics and log-likelihood.

Annually, at the Conference of Machine Translation (WMT), the Metrics Shared Task organizers conduct the meta-evaluation of Machine Translation (MT) metrics, ranking them according to their correlation with human judgments. Their results guide researchers toward enhancing the next generation of metrics and MT systems. With the recent introduction of neural metrics, the field has witnessed notable advancements. Nevertheless, the inherent opacity of these metrics has posed substantial challenges to the meta-evaluation process. This work highlights two issues with the meta-evaluation framework currently employed in WMT, and assesses their impact on the metrics rankings. To do this, we introduce the concept of sentinel metrics, which are designed explicitly to scrutinize the meta-evaluation process's accuracy, robustness, and fairness. By employing sentinel metrics, we aim to validate our findings, and shed light on and monitor the potential biases or inconsistencies in the rankings. We discover that the present meta-evaluation framework favors two categories of metrics: i) those explicitly trained to mimic human quality assessments, and ii) continuous metrics. Finally, we raise concerns regarding the evaluation capabilities of state-of-the-art metrics, emphasizing that they might be basing their assessments on spurious correlations found in their training data.

Designing metrics for evaluating instance segmentation revolves around comprehensively considering object detection and segmentation accuracy. However, other important properties, such as sensitivity, continuity, and equality, are overlooked in the current study. In this paper, we reveal that most existing metrics have a limited resolution of segmentation quality. They are only conditionally sensitive to the change of masks or false predictions. For certain metrics, the score can change drastically in a narrow range which could provide a misleading indication of the quality gap between results. Therefore, we propose a new metric called sortedAP, which strictly decreases with both object- and pixel-level imperfections and has an uninterrupted penalization scale over the entire domain. We provide the evaluation toolkit and experiment code at https://www.github.com/looooongChen/sortedAP.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in image synthesis and related generative tasks. Nevertheless, their practicality for low-latency real-world applications is constrained by substantial computational costs and latency issues. Quantization is a dominant way to compress and accelerate diffusion models, where post-training quantization (PTQ) and quantization-aware training (QAT) are two main approaches, each bearing its own properties. While PTQ exhibits efficiency in terms of both time and data usage, it may lead to diminished performance in low bit-width. On the other hand, QAT can alleviate performance degradation but comes with substantial demands on computational and data resources. To capitalize on the advantages while avoiding their respective drawbacks, we introduce a data-free and parameter-efficient fine-tuning framework for low-bit diffusion models, dubbed EfficientDM, to achieve QAT-level performance with PTQ-like efficiency. Specifically, we propose a quantization-aware variant of the low-rank adapter (QALoRA) that can be merged with model weights and jointly quantized to low bit-width. The fine-tuning process distills the denoising capabilities of the full-precision model into its quantized counterpart, eliminating the requirement for training data. We also introduce scale-aware optimization and employ temporal learned step-size quantization to further enhance performance. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms previous PTQ-based diffusion models while maintaining similar time and data efficiency. Specifically, there is only a marginal 0.05 sFID increase when quantizing both weights and activations of LDM-4 to 4-bit on ImageNet 256x256. Compared to QAT-based methods, our EfficientDM also boasts a 16.2x faster quantization speed with comparable generation quality.