Executive Summary
Key Findings
Vietnam's economy continues to demonstrate robust growth momentum in 2025, with GDP expanding 7.96% in Q2 2025 year-over-year. The first half of 2025 recorded growth of 7.52%, marking the highest mid-year growth rate since 2011.
Growth Drivers: The exceptional performance is led by strong growth in industry and services sectors, supported by robust foreign direct investment inflows and a resilient domestic market.
Record Performance
H1 2025 marks the highest first-half performance since 2011, demonstrating Vietnam's economic resilience and growth potential.
Global Confidence
FDI inflows of $21.51 billion in H1 2025 represent a 32.6% year-on-year increase, reflecting strong international investor confidence.
Economic Stability
Despite global trade tensions, Vietnam maintains controlled inflation and low unemployment, supporting sustainable growth.
Key Economic Indicators 2025
GDP Growth Performance
| Indicator | Current Value | Target/Forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth (H1 2025) | 7.52% | 8.3-8.5% (Gov Target) | Above Average |
| Inflation Rate (June 2025) | 3.57% | 3.0-4.5% (Target Range) | Within Target |
| Unemployment Rate (Q1 2025) | 2.20% | < 3.0% | Excellent |
| FDI (H1 2025) | $21.51B | +32.6% YoY | Strong Growth |
Performance Metrics Dashboard
GDP Growth Indicators
Foreign Investment Metrics
Sectoral Analysis
Services Sector
Major contributor to GDP growth
The services sector continues to be a primary driver of economic expansion, supported by tourism recovery and digital transformation initiatives.
Manufacturing
Maintains recovery trajectory
Manufacturing sector shows robust performance with continued expansion in export-oriented industries and technology manufacturing.
Banking Sector
17% earnings increase projected
Banking sector performance expected to strengthen with 15% growth in system-wide credit supporting economic expansion.
Retail Sales Performance Q1 2025
Challenges and Risk Factors
Global Trade Tensions
Ongoing international trade disputes create uncertainty for export-oriented businesses and supply chain operations.
US Tariff Policies
Potential tariff increases pose challenges for Vietnamese exporters and may impact competitive positioning in key markets.
FDI Overdependence
Heavy reliance on foreign investment may create vulnerabilities to external shocks and capital flow reversals.
Macroeconomic Stability
Ensuring growth doesn't compromise macroeconomic stability, with attention to public debt levels and inflation control.
Risk Mitigation Strategies
- Diversify export markets to reduce trade concentration risk
- Strengthen domestic demand to reduce external dependence
- Enhance economic resilience through structural reforms
- Maintain fiscal policy flexibility for economic support
Historical Comparison
Q1 GDP Growth Rates (2020-2025)
Key Historical Context
2024 Performance: Vietnam achieved 7.1% GDP growth, setting a strong foundation for 2025's exceptional performance.
Recovery Trajectory: The current growth represents a significant recovery from the 2023 slowdown (3.46% in Q1) and demonstrates improved economic resilience.
Long-term Trend: The 2025 Q1 performance (6.93%) represents the second-highest quarterly growth in the 2020-2025 period, indicating sustained economic momentum.
Economic Outlook and Projections
2025 Forecasts
| World Bank: | 5.8% |
| ADB: | 6.6% |
| IMF: | 5.2% |
| Government Target: | 8.3-8.5% |
Supporting Factors
- Robust FDI inflows
- Low unemployment levels
- Controlled inflation
- Export competitiveness
- Parliamentary support