text
stringlengths 204
3.13k
|
|---|
rules that set high qualifications for certain jobs: academic training, certificates or licenses, or experience. When these qualifications are made tougher, the number of qualified workers will decrease at any given wage. On the other hand, the government may also subsidize training or even reduce the required level of qualifications. For example, government might offer subsidies for nursing schools or nursing students. Such provisions would shift the supply curve of nurses to the right. In addition, government policies that change the relative desirability of working versus not working also affect the labor supply. These include unemployment benefits, maternity leave, child care benefits, and welfare policy. For example, child care benefits may increase the labor supply of working mothers. Long term unemployment benefits may discourage job searching for unemployed workers. All these policies must therefore be carefully designed to minimize any negative labor supply effects. Table 4.3 Factors that Can Shift Supply This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets 89 A change in salary will lead to a movement along labor demand or labor supply curves, but it will not shift those curves. However, other events like those we have outlined here will cause either the demand or the supply of labor to shift, and thus will move the labor market to a new equilibrium salary and quantity. Technology and Wage Inequality: The Four-Step Process Economic events can change the equilibrium salary (or wage) and quantity of labor. Consider how the wave of new information technologies, like computer and telecommunications networks, has affected low-skill and high-skill workers in the U.S. economy. From the perspective of employers who demand labor, these new technologies are often a substitute for low-skill laborers like file clerks who used to keep file cabinets full of paper records of transactions. However, the same new technologies are a complement to high-skill workers like managers, who benefit from the technological advances by having the ability to monitor more information, communicate more easily, and juggle a wider array of responsibilities. How will the new technologies affect the wages of high-skill and low-skill workers? For this question, the four-step process of analyzing how shifts in supply or demand affect a market (introduced in Demand and Supply) works in this way: Step 1. What did the markets for low-skill labor and high-skill labor look like before the arrival of the new technologies? In Figure 4.3 (a) and Figure 4.3 (b), S
|
0 is the original supply curve for labor and D0 is the original demand curve for labor in each market. In each graph, the original point of equilibrium, E0, occurs at the price W0 and the quantity Q0. Figure 4.3 Technology and Wages: Applying Demand and Supply (a) The demand for low-skill labor shifts to the left when technology can do the job previously done by these workers. (b) New technologies can also increase the demand for high-skill labor in fields such as information technology and network administration. Step 2. Does the new technology affect the supply of labor from households or the demand for labor from firms? The technology change described here affects demand for labor by firms that hire workers. Step 3. Will the new technology increase or decrease demand? Based on the description earlier, as the substitute for low-skill labor becomes available, demand for low-skill labor will shift to the left, from D0 to D1. As the technology complement for high-skill labor becomes cheaper, demand for high-skill labor will shift to the right, from D0 to D1. Step 4. The new equilibrium for low-skill labor, shown as point E1 with price W1 and quantity Q1, has a lower wage and quantity hired than the original equilibrium, E0. The new equilibrium for high-skill labor, shown as point E1 with price W1 and quantity Q1, has a higher wage and quantity hired than the original equilibrium (E0). Thus, the demand and supply model predicts that the new computer and communications technologies will raise the pay of high-skill workers but reduce the pay of low-skill workers. From the 1970s to the mid-2000s, the wage gap widened between high-skill and low-skill labor. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, in 1980, for example, a college graduate earned about 30% more than a high school graduate with comparable job experience, but by 2014, a college graduate earned about 66% more than an otherwise comparable high school graduate. Many economists believe that the trend toward greater wage inequality across the U.S. economy is due to improvements in 90 technology. Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets this website (http://openstaxcollege.org/l/oldtechjobs) to read about Visit relevance in today’s workforce. ten tech skills that have lost Price Floors in the Labor Market: Living Wages and Minimum Wages In contrast to goods and services markets, price
|
ceilings are rare in labor markets, because rules that prevent people from earning income are not politically popular. There is one exception: boards of trustees or stockholders, as an example, propose limits on the high incomes of top business executives. The labor market, however, presents some prominent examples of price floors, which are an attempt to increase the wages of low-paid workers. The U.S. government sets a minimum wage, a price floor that makes it illegal for an employer to pay employees less than a certain hourly rate. In mid-2009, the U.S. minimum wage was raised to $7.25 per hour. Local political movements in a number of U.S. cities have pushed for a higher minimum wage, which they call a living wage. Promoters of living wage laws maintain that the minimum wage is too low to ensure a reasonable standard of living. They base this conclusion on the calculation that, if you work 40 hours a week at a minimum wage of $7.25 per hour for 50 weeks a year, your annual income is $14,500, which is less than the official U.S. government definition of what it means for a family to be in poverty. (A family with two adults earning minimum wage and two young children will find it more cost efficient for one parent to provide childcare while the other works for income. Thus the family income would be $14,500, which is significantly lower than the federal poverty line for a family of four, which was $24,250 in 2015.) Supporters of the living wage argue that full-time workers should be assured a high enough wage so that they can afford the essentials of life: food, clothing, shelter, and healthcare. Since Baltimore passed the first living wage law in 1994, several dozen cities enacted similar laws in the late 1990s and the 2000s. The living wage ordinances do not apply to all employers, but they have specified that all employees of the city or employees of firms that the city hires be paid at least a certain wage that is usually a few dollars per hour above the U.S. minimum wage. Figure 4.4 illustrates the situation of a city considering a living wage law. For simplicity, we assume that there is no federal minimum wage. The wage appears on the vertical axis, because the wage is the price in the labor market. Before the passage of the living wage law, the equilibrium wage is $10 per hour and the city hires 1,200 workers at this wage. However, a group of concerned citizens
|
persuades the city council to enact a living wage law requiring employers to pay no less than $12 per hour. In response to the higher wage, 1,600 workers look for jobs with the city. At this higher wage, the city, as an employer, is willing to hire only 700 workers. At the price floor, the quantity supplied exceeds the quantity demanded, and a surplus of labor exists in this market. For workers who continue to have a job at a higher salary, life has improved. For those who were willing to work at the old wage rate but lost their jobs with the wage increase, life has not improved. Table 4.4 shows the differences in supply and demand at different wages. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets 91 Figure 4.4 A Living Wage: Example of a Price Floor The original equilibrium in this labor market is a wage of $10/ hour and a quantity of 1,200 workers, shown at point E. Imposing a wage floor at $12/hour leads to an excess supply of labor. At that wage, the quantity of labor supplied is 1,600 and the quantity of labor demanded is only 700. Wage Quantity Labor Demanded Quantity Labor Supplied $8/hr $9/hr $10/hr $11/hr $12/hr $13/hr $14/hr 1,900 1,500 1,200 900 700 500 400 500 900 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 1,900 Table 4.4 Living Wage: Example of a Price Floor The Minimum Wage as an Example of a Price Floor The U.S. minimum wage is a price floor that is set either very close to the equilibrium wage or even slightly below it. About 1% of American workers are actually paid the minimum wage. In other words, the vast majority of the U.S. labor force has its wages determined in the labor market, not as a result of the government price floor. However, for workers with low skills and little experience, like those without a high school diploma or teenagers, the minimum wage is quite important. In many cities, the federal minimum wage is apparently below the market price for unskilled labor, because employers offer more than the minimum wage to checkout clerks and other low-skill workers without any government prodding. Economists have attempted to estimate how much the minimum wage reduces the quantity demanded of low-
|
skill labor. A typical result of such studies is that a 10% increase in the minimum wage would decrease the hiring of unskilled workers by 1 to 2%, which seems a relatively small reduction. In fact, some studies have even found no effect of a higher minimum wage on employment at certain times and places—although these studies are controversial. Let’s suppose that the minimum wage lies just slightly below the equilibrium wage level. Wages could fluctuate according to market forces above this price floor, but they would not be allowed to move beneath the floor. In this situation, the price floor minimum wage is nonbinding —that is, the price floor is not determining the market outcome. Even if the minimum wage moves just a little higher, it will still have no effect on the quantity of 92 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets employment in the economy, as long as it remains below the equilibrium wage. Even if the government increases minimum wage by enough so that it rises slightly above the equilibrium wage and becomes binding, there will be only a small excess supply gap between the quantity demanded and quantity supplied. These insights help to explain why U.S. minimum wage laws have historically had only a small impact on employment. Since the minimum wage has typically been set close to the equilibrium wage for low-skill labor and sometimes even below it, it has not had a large effect in creating an excess supply of labor. However, if the minimum wage increased dramatically—say, if it doubled to match the living wages that some U.S. cities have considered—then its impact on reducing the quantity demanded of employment would be far greater. As of 2017, many U.S. states are set to increase their minimum wage to $15 per hour. We will see what happens. The following Clear It Up feature describes in greater detail some of the arguments for and against changes to minimum wage. What’s the harm in raising the minimum wage? Because of the law of demand, a higher required wage will reduce the amount of low-skill employment either in terms of employees or in terms of work hours. Although there is controversy over the numbers, let’s say for the sake of the argument that a 10% rise in the minimum wage will reduce the employment of low-skill workers by 2%. Does this outcome mean that raising the minimum wage by 10% is bad public policy? Not necessarily. If 98% of those receiving the minimum wage have a pay increase of 10%, but 2% of those receiving the minimum wage lose their jobs,
|
are the gains for society as a whole greater than the losses? The answer is not clear, because job losses, even for a small group, may cause more pain than modest income gains for others. For one thing, we need to consider which minimum wage workers are losing their jobs. If the 2% of minimum wage workers who lose their jobs are struggling to support families, that is one thing. If those who lose their job are high school students picking up spending money over summer vacation, that is something else. Another complexity is that many minimum wage workers do not work full-time for an entire year. Imagine a minimum wage worker who holds different part-time jobs for a few months at a time, with bouts of unemployment in between. The worker in this situation receives the 10% raise in the minimum wage when working, but also ends up working 2% fewer hours during the year because the higher minimum wage reduces how much employers want people to work. Overall, this worker’s income would rise because the 10% pay raise would more than offset the 2% fewer hours worked. Of course, these arguments do not prove that raising the minimum wage is necessarily a good idea either. There may well be other, better public policy options for helping low-wage workers. (The Poverty and Economic Inequality (http://cnx.org/content/m63897/latest/) chapter discusses some possibilities.) The lesson from this maze of minimum wage arguments is that complex social problems rarely have simple answers. Even those who agree on how a proposed economic policy affects quantity demanded and quantity supplied may still disagree on whether the policy is a good idea. 4.2 | Demand and Supply in Financial Markets By the end of this section, you will be able to: Identify the demanders and suppliers in a financial market • • Explain how interest rates can affect supply and demand • Analyze the economic effects of U.S. debt in terms of domestic financial markets • Explain the role of price ceilings and usury laws in the U.S. United States' households, institutions, and domestic businesses saved almost $1.3 trillion in 2015. Where did that savings go and how was it used? Some of the savings ended up in banks, which in turn loaned the money to individuals or businesses that wanted to borrow money. Some was invested in private companies or loaned to This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial
|
Markets 93 government agencies that wanted to borrow money to raise funds for purposes like building roads or mass transit. Some firms reinvested their savings in their own businesses. In this section, we will determine how the demand and supply model links those who wish to supply financial capital (i.e., savings) with those who demand financial capital (i.e., borrowing). Those who save money (or make financial investments, which is the same thing), whether individuals or businesses, are on the supply side of the financial market. Those who borrow money are on the demand side of the financial market. For a more detailed treatment of the different kinds of financial investments like bank accounts, stocks and bonds, see the Financial Markets (http://cnx.org/content/m63860/latest/) chapter. Who Demands and Who Supplies in Financial Markets? In any market, the price is what suppliers receive and what demanders pay. In financial markets, those who supply financial capital through saving expect to receive a rate of return, while those who demand financial capital by receiving funds expect to pay a rate of return. This rate of return can come in a variety of forms, depending on the type of investment. The simplest example of a rate of return is the interest rate. For example, when you supply money into a savings account at a bank, you receive interest on your deposit. The interest the bank pays you as a percent of your deposits is the interest rate. Similarly, if you demand a loan to buy a car or a computer, you will need to pay interest on the money you borrow. Let’s consider the market for borrowing money with credit cards. In 2015, almost 200 million Americans were cardholders. Credit cards allow you to borrow money from the card's issuer, and pay back the borrowed amount plus interest, although most allow you a period of time in which you can repay the loan without paying interest. A typical credit card interest rate ranges from 12% to 18% per year. In May 2016, Americans had about $943 billion outstanding in credit card debts. About half of U.S. families with credit cards report that they almost always pay the full balance on time, but one-quarter of U.S. families with credit cards say that they “hardly ever” pay off the card in full. In fact, in 2014, 56% of consumers carried an unpaid balance in the last 12 months. Let’s say that, on average, the annual interest rate for credit card
|
borrowing is 15% per year. Thus, Americans pay tens of billions of dollars every year in interest on their credit cards—plus basic fees for the credit card or fees for late payments. Figure 4.5 illustrates demand and supply in the financial market for credit cards. The horizontal axis of the financial market shows the quantity of money loaned or borrowed in this market. The vertical or price axis shows the rate of return, which in the case of credit card borrowing we can measure with an interest rate. Table 4.5 shows the quantity of financial capital that consumers demand at various interest rates and the quantity that credit card firms (often banks) are willing to supply. 94 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets Figure 4.5 Demand and Supply for Borrowing Money with Credit Cards In this market for credit card borrowing, the demand curve (D) for borrowing financial capital intersects the supply curve (S) for lending financial capital at equilibrium E. At the equilibrium, the interest rate (the “price” in this market) is 15% and the quantity of financial capital loaned and borrowed is $600 billion. The equilibrium price is where the quantity demanded and the quantity supplied are equal. At an above-equilibrium interest rate like 21%, the quantity of financial capital supplied would increase to $750 billion, but the quantity demanded would decrease to $480 billion. At a below-equilibrium interest rate like 13%, the quantity of financial capital demanded would increase to $700 billion, but the quantity of financial capital supplied would decrease to $510 billion. Interest Rate (%) Quantity of Financial Capital Demanded (Borrowing) ($ billions) Quantity of Financial Capital Supplied (Lending) ($ billions) 11 13 15 17 19 21 $800 $700 $600 $550 $500 $480 $420 $510 $600 $660 $720 $750 Table 4.5 Demand and Supply for Borrowing Money with Credit Cards The laws of demand and supply continue to apply in the financial markets. According to the law of demand, a higher rate of return (that is, a higher price) will decrease the quantity demanded. As the interest rate rises, consumers will reduce the quantity that they borrow. According to the law of supply, a higher price increases the quantity supplied. Consequently, as the interest rate paid on credit card borrowing rises, more firms will be eager to issue credit cards and to encourage customers to use them. Conversely, if the interest rate on credit cards falls, the quantity of financial capital supplied in the credi
|
t card market will decrease and the quantity demanded will fall. Equilibrium in Financial Markets In the financial market for credit cards in Figure 4.5, the supply curve (S) and the demand curve (D) cross at the equilibrium point (E). The equilibrium occurs at an interest rate of 15%, where the quantity of funds demanded and the quantity supplied are equal at an equilibrium quantity of $600 billion. If the interest rate (remember, this measures the “price” in the financial market) is above the equilibrium level, then an excess supply, or a surplus, of financial capital will arise in this market. For example, at an interest rate of 21%, the quantity of funds supplied increases to $750 billion, while the quantity demanded decreases to $480 billion. At this This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets 95 above-equilibrium interest rate, firms are eager to supply loans to credit card borrowers, but relatively few people or businesses wish to borrow. As a result, some credit card firms will lower the interest rates (or other fees) they charge to attract more business. This strategy will push the interest rate down toward the equilibrium level. If the interest rate is below the equilibrium, then excess demand or a shortage of funds occurs in this market. At an interest rate of 13%, the quantity of funds credit card borrowers demand increases to $700 billion, but the quantity credit card firms are willing to supply is only $510 billion. In this situation, credit card firms will perceive that they are overloaded with eager borrowers and conclude that they have an opportunity to raise interest rates or fees. The interest rate will face economic pressures to creep up toward the equilibrium level. The FRED database publishes some two dozen measures of interest rates, including interest rates on credit cards, the FRED website automobile loans, personal (https://openstax.org/l/FRED_stlouis). loans, mortgage loans, and more. You can find these at Shifts in Demand and Supply in Financial Markets Those who supply financial capital face two broad decisions: how much to save, and how to divide up their savings among different forms of financial investments. We will discuss each of these in turn. Participants in financial markets must decide when they prefer to consume goods: now or in the future. Economists call this intertemporal decision making because it involves decisions across time. Unlike a decision about what
|
to buy from the grocery store, people make investment or savings decisions across a period of time, sometimes a long period. Most workers save for retirement because their income in the present is greater than their needs, while the opposite will be true once they retire. Thus, they save today and supply financial markets. If their income increases, they save more. If their perceived situation in the future changes, they change the amount of their saving. For example, there is some evidence that Social Security, the program that workers pay into in order to qualify for government checks after retirement, has tended to reduce the quantity of financial capital that workers save. If this is true, Social Security has shifted the supply of financial capital at any interest rate to the left. By contrast, many college students need money today when their income is low (or nonexistent) to pay their college expenses. As a result, they borrow today and demand from financial markets. Once they graduate and become employed, they will pay back the loans. Individuals borrow money to purchase homes or cars. A business seeks financial investment so that it has the funds to build a factory or invest in a research and development project that will not pay off for five years, ten years, or even more. Thus, when consumers and businesses have greater confidence that they will be able to repay in the future, the quantity demanded of financial capital at any given interest rate will shift to the right. For example, in the technology boom of the late 1990s, many businesses became extremely confident that investments in new technology would have a high rate of return, and their demand for financial capital shifted to the right. Conversely, during the 2008 and 2009 Great Recession, their demand for financial capital at any given interest rate shifted to the left. To this point, we have been looking at saving in total. Now let us consider what affects saving in different types of financial investments. In deciding between different forms of financial investments, suppliers of financial capital will have to consider the rates of return and the risks involved. Rate of return is a positive attribute of investments, but risk is a negative. If Investment A becomes more risky, or the return diminishes, then savers will shift their funds to Investment B—and the supply curve of financial capital for Investment A will shift back to the left while the supply curve of capital for Investment B shifts to the right. The United States as a Global Borrower In the global economy, trillions of dollars of financial investment cross national borders every year. In the early 2000s, financial investors from foreign
|
countries were investing several hundred billion dollars per year more in the U.S. economy than U.S. financial investors were investing abroad. The following Work It Out deals with one of the macroeconomic concerns for the U.S. economy in recent years. 96 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets The Effect of Growing U.S. Debt Imagine that foreign investors viewed the U.S. economy as a less desirable place to put their money because of fears about the growth of the U.S. public debt. Using the four-step process for analyzing how changes in supply and demand affect equilibrium outcomes, how would increased U.S. public debt affect the equilibrium price and quantity for capital in U.S. financial markets? Step 1. Draw a diagram showing demand and supply for financial capital that represents the original scenario in which foreign investors are pouring money into the U.S. economy. Figure 4.6 shows a demand curve, D, and a supply curve, S, where the supply of capital includes the funds arriving from foreign investors. The original equilibrium E0 occurs at interest rate R0 and quantity of financial investment Q0. Figure 4.6 The United States as a Global Borrower Before U.S. Debt Uncertainty The graph shows the demand for financial capital from and supply of financial capital into the U.S. financial markets by the foreign sector before the increase in uncertainty regarding U.S. public debt. The original equilibrium (E0) occurs at an equilibrium rate of return (R0) and the equilibrium quantity is at Q0. Step 2. Will the diminished confidence in the U.S. economy as a place to invest affect demand or supply of financial capital? Yes, it will affect supply. Many foreign investors look to the U.S. financial markets to store their money in safe financial vehicles with low risk and stable returns. Diminished confidence means U.S. financial assets will be seen as more risky. Step 3. Will supply increase or decrease? When the enthusiasm of foreign investors’ for investing their money in the U.S. economy diminishes, the supply of financial capital shifts to the left. Figure 4.7 shows the supply curve shift from S0 to S1. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets 97 Figure 4.7 The United States as a Global Borrower Before and After U.S. Debt Uncertainty
|
The graph shows the demand for financial capital and supply of financial capital into the U.S. financial markets by the foreign sector before and after the increase in uncertainty regarding U.S. public debt. The original equilibrium (E0) occurs at an equilibrium rate of return (R0) and the equilibrium quantity is at Q0. Step 4. Thus, foreign investors’ diminished enthusiasm leads to a new equilibrium, E1, which occurs at the higher interest rate, R1, and the lower quantity of financial investment, Q1. In short, U.S. borrowers will have to pay more interest on their borrowing. The economy has experienced an enormous inflow of foreign capital. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, by the third quarter of 2015, U.S. investors had accumulated $23.3 trillion of foreign assets, but foreign investors owned a total of $30.6 trillion of U.S. assets. If foreign investors were to pull their money out of the U.S. economy and invest elsewhere in the world, the result could be a significantly lower quantity of financial investment in the United States, available only at a higher interest rate. This reduced inflow of foreign financial investment could impose hardship on U.S. consumers and firms interested in borrowing. In a modern, developed economy, financial capital often moves invisibly through electronic transfers between one bank account and another. Yet we can analyze these flows of funds with the same tools of demand and supply as markets for goods or labor. Price Ceilings in Financial Markets: Usury Laws As we noted earlier, about 200 million Americans own credit cards, and their interest payments and fees total tens of billions of dollars each year. It is little wonder that political pressures sometimes arise for setting limits on the interest rates or fees that credit card companies charge. The firms that issue credit cards, including banks, oil companies, phone companies, and retail stores, respond that the higher interest rates are necessary to cover the losses created by those who borrow on their credit cards and who do not repay on time or at all. These companies also point out that cardholders can avoid paying interest if they pay their bills on time. Consider the credit card market as Figure 4.8 illustrators. In this financial market, the vertical axis shows the interest rate (which is the price in the financial market). Demanders in the credit card market are households and businesses. Suppliers are the companies that issue credit cards. This figure does not use specific numbers, which
|
would be hypothetical in any case, but instead focuses on the underlying economic relationships. Imagine a law imposes a price ceiling that holds the interest rate charged on credit cards at the rate Rc, which lies below the interest rate R0 that would otherwise have prevailed in the market. The horizontal dashed line at interest rate Rc in Figure 4.8 shows the price ceiling. The demand and supply model predicts that at the lower price ceiling interest rate, the quantity demanded of credit card debt will increase from its original level of Q0 to Qd; however, the quantity supplied of credit card debt will decrease from the original Q0 to Qs. At the price ceiling (Rc), quantity demanded will exceed quantity supplied. Consequently, a number of people who want to have credit cards and are willing to pay the prevailing interest rate will find that companies are unwilling to issue cards to them. The result will be a credit shortage. 98 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets Figure 4.8 Credit Card Interest Rates: Another Price Ceiling Example The original intersection of demand D and supply S occurs at equilibrium E0. However, a price ceiling is set at the interest rate Rc, below the equilibrium interest rate R0, and so the interest rate cannot adjust upward to the equilibrium. At the price ceiling, the quantity demanded, Qd, exceeds the quantity supplied, Qs. There is excess demand, also called a shortage. Many states do have usury laws, which impose an upper limit on the interest rate that lenders can charge. However, in many cases these upper limits are well above the market interest rate. For example, if the interest rate is not allowed to rise above 30% per year, it can still fluctuate below that level according to market forces. A price ceiling that is set at a relatively high level is nonbinding, and it will have no practical effect unless the equilibrium price soars high enough to exceed the price ceiling. 4.3 | The Market System as an Efficient Mechanism for Information By the end of this section, you will be able to: • Apply demand and supply models to analyze prices and quantities • Explain the effects of price controls on the equilibrium of prices and quantities Prices exist in markets for goods and services, for labor, and for financial capital. In all of these markets, prices serve as a remarkable social mechanism for collecting, combining, and transmitting information that is relevant to the market—namely, the relationship between demand and supply—and then serving as messengers to convey that information to buyers
|
and sellers. In a market-oriented economy, no government agency or guiding intelligence oversees the set of responses and interconnections that result from a change in price. Instead, each consumer reacts according to that person’s preferences and budget set, and each profit-seeking producer reacts to the impact on its expected profits. The following Clear It Up feature examines the demand and supply models. Why are demand and supply curves important? The demand and supply model is the second fundamental diagram for this course. (The opportunity set model that we introduced in the Choice in a World of Scarcity chapter was the first.) Just as it would be foolish to try to learn the arithmetic of long division by memorizing every possible combination of numbers that can be divided by each other, it would be foolish to try to memorize every specific example of demand and supply in this chapter, this textbook, or this course. Demand and supply is not primarily a list of examples. It is a This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets 99 model to analyze prices and quantities. Even though demand and supply diagrams have many labels, they are fundamentally the same in their logic. Your goal should be to understand the underlying model so you can use it to analyze any market. Figure 4.9 displays a generic demand and supply curve. The horizontal axis shows the different measures of quantity: a quantity of a good or service, or a quantity of labor for a given job, or a quantity of financial capital. The vertical axis shows a measure of price: the price of a good or service, the wage in the labor market, or the rate of return (like the interest rate) in the financial market. The demand and supply model can explain the existing levels of prices, wages, and rates of return. To carry out such an analysis, think about the quantity that will be demanded at each price and the quantity that will be supplied at each price—that is, think about the shape of the demand and supply curves—and how these forces will combine to produce equilibrium. We can also use demand and supply to explain how economic events will cause changes in prices, wages, and rates of return. There are only four possibilities: the change in any single event may cause the demand curve to shift right or to shift left, or it may cause the supply curve to shift right or to shift left. The key to analyzing the effect of an economic event on equilibrium prices
|
and quantities is to determine which of these four possibilities occurred. The way to do this correctly is to think back to the list of factors that shift the demand and supply curves. Note that if more than one variable is changing at the same time, the overall impact will depend on the degree of the shifts. When there are multiple variables, economists isolate each change and analyze it independently. Figure 4.9 Demand and Supply Curves The figure displays a generic demand and supply curve. The horizontal axis shows the different measures of quantity: a quantity of a good or service, a quantity of labor for a given job, or a quantity of financial capital. The vertical axis shows a measure of price: the price of a good or service, the wage in the labor market, or the rate of return (like the interest rate) in the financial market. We can use the demand and supply curves explain how economic events will cause changes in prices, wages, and rates of return. An increase in the price of some product signals consumers that there is a shortage; therefore, they may want to economize on buying this product. For example, if you are thinking about taking a plane trip to Hawaii, but the ticket turns out to be expensive during the week you intend to go, you might consider other weeks when the ticket might be cheaper. The price could be high because you were planning to travel during a holiday when demand for traveling is high. Maybe the cost of an input like jet fuel increased or the airline has raised the price temporarily to see how many people are willing to pay it. Perhaps all of these factors are present at the same time. You do not need to analyze the market and break down the price change into its underlying factors. You just have to look at the ticket price and decide whether and when to fly. In the same way, price changes provide useful information to producers. Imagine the situation of a farmer who grows 100 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets oats and learns that the price of oats has risen. The higher price could be due to an increase in demand caused by a new scientific study proclaiming that eating oats is especially healthful. Perhaps the price of a substitute grain, like corn, has risen, and people have responded by buying more oats. The oat farmer does not need to know the details. The farmer only needs to know that the price of oats has risen and that it will be profitable to expand production as a result. The actions of individual consumers and producers as they react to prices overlap and interlock in markets for goods
|
, labor, and financial capital. A change in any single market is transmitted through these multiple interconnections to other markets. The vision of the role of flexible prices helping markets to reach equilibrium and linking different markets together helps to explain why price controls can be so counterproductive. Price controls are government laws that serve to regulate prices rather than allow the various markets to determine prices. There is an old proverb: “Don’t kill the messenger.” In ancient times, messengers carried information between distant cities and kingdoms. When they brought bad news, there was an emotional impulse to kill the messenger. However, killing the messenger did not kill the bad news. Moreover, killing the messenger had an undesirable side effect: Other messengers would refuse to bring news to that city or kingdom, depriving its citizens of vital information. Those who seek price controls are trying to kill the messenger—or at least to stifle an unwelcome message that prices are bringing about the equilibrium level of price and quantity. However, price controls do nothing to affect the underlying forces of demand and supply, and this can have serious repercussions. During China’s “Great Leap Forward” in the late 1950s, the government kept food prices artificially low, with the result that 30 to 40 million people died of starvation because the low prices depressed farm production. This was communist party leader Mao Zedong's social and economic campaign to rapidly transform the country from an agrarian economy to a socialist society through rapid industrialization and collectivization. Changes in demand and supply will continue to reveal themselves through consumers’ and producers’ behavior. Immobilizing the price messenger through price controls will deprive everyone in the economy of critical information. Without this information, it becomes difficult for everyone—buyers and sellers alike—to react in a flexible and appropriate manner as changes occur throughout the economy. Baby Boomers Come of Age The theory of supply and demand can explain what happens in the labor markets and suggests that the demand for nurses will increase as healthcare needs of baby boomers increase, as Figure 4.10 shows. The impact of that increase will result in an average salary higher than the $67,490 earned in 2015 referenced in the first part of this case. The new equilibrium (E1) will be at the new equilibrium price (Pe1).Equilibrium quantity will also increase from Qe0 to Qe1. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190
|
/1.4 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets 101 Figure 4.10 Impact of Increasing Demand for Nurses 2014-2024 In 2014, the median salary for nurses was $67,490. As demand for services increases, the demand curve shifts to the right (from D0 to D1) and the equilibrium quantity of nurses increases from Qe0 to Qe1. The equilibrium salary increases from Pe0 to Pe1. Suppose that as the demand for nurses increases, the supply shrinks due to an increasing number of nurses entering retirement and increases in the tuition of nursing degrees. The leftward shift of the supply curve in Figure 4.11 captures the impact of a decreasing supply of nurses. The shifts in the two curves result in higher salaries for nurses, but the overall impact in the quantity of nurses is uncertain, as it depends on the relative shifts of supply and demand. Figure 4.11 Impact of Decreasing Supply of Nurses between 2014 and 2024 The increase in demand for nurses shown in Figure 4.10 leads to both higher prices and higher quantities demanded. As nurses retire from the work force, the supply of nurses decreases, causing a leftward shift in the supply curve and higher salaries for nurses at Pe2. The net effect on the equilibrium quantity of nurses is uncertain, which in this representation is less than Qe1, but more than the initial Qe0. 102 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets While we do not know if the number of nurses will increase or decrease relative to their initial employment, we know they will have higher salaries. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets 103 KEY TERMS interest rate the “price” of borrowing in the financial market; a rate of return on an investment minimum wage a price floor that makes it illegal for an employer to pay employees less than a certain hourly rate usury laws laws that impose an upper limit on the interest rate that lenders can charge KEY CONCEPTS AND SUMMARY 4.1 Demand and Supply at Work in Labor Markets In the labor market, households are on the supply side of the market and firms are on the demand side. In the market for financial capital, households and firms can be on either side of the market: they are suppliers of financial capital when they save or make financial investments, and demanders of financial capital when they borrow or receive financial investments. In the demand and supply analysis of
|
labor markets, we can measure the price by the annual salary or hourly wage received. We can measure the quantity of labor various ways, like number of workers or the number of hours worked. Factors that can shift the demand curve for labor include: a change in the quantity demanded of the product that the labor produces; a change in the production process that uses more or less labor; and a change in government policy that affects the quantity of labor that firms wish to hire at a given wage. Demand can also increase or decrease (shift) in response to: workers’ level of education and training, technology, the number of companies, and availability and price of other inputs. The main factors that can shift the supply curve for labor are: how desirable a job appears to workers relative to the alternatives, government policy that either restricts or encourages the quantity of workers trained for the job, the number of workers in the economy, and required education. 4.2 Demand and Supply in Financial Markets In the demand and supply analysis of financial markets, the “price” is the rate of return or the interest rate received. We measure the quantity by the money that flows from those who supply financial capital to those who demand it. Two factors can shift the supply of financial capital to a certain investment: if people want to alter their existing levels of consumption, and if the riskiness or return on one investment changes relative to other investments. Factors that can shift demand for capital include business confidence and consumer confidence in the future—since financial investments received in the present are typically repaid in the future. 4.3 The Market System as an Efficient Mechanism for Information The market price system provides a highly efficient mechanism for disseminating information about relative scarcities of goods, services, labor, and financial capital. Market participants do not need to know why prices have changed, only that the changes require them to revisit previous decisions they made about supply and demand. Price controls hide information about the true scarcity of products and thereby cause misallocation of resources. SELF-CHECK QUESTIONS 1. 2. In the labor market, what causes a movement along the demand curve? What causes a shift in the demand curve? In the labor market, what causes a movement along the supply curve? What causes a shift in the supply curve? 3. Why is a living wage considered a price floor? Does imposing a living wage have the same outcome as a minimum wage? In the financial market, what causes a movement along the demand curve? What causes a shift in the demand
|
4. curve? 5. In the financial market, what causes a movement along the supply curve? What causes a shift in the supply curve? 104 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets If a usury law limits interest rates to no more than 35%, what would the likely impact be on the amount of loans 6. made and interest rates paid? 7. Which of the following changes in the financial market will lead to a decline in interest rates: a. a rise in demand b. a fall in demand c. a rise in supply d. a fall in supply 8. Which of the following changes in the financial market will lead to an increase in the quantity of loans made and received: a. a rise in demand b. a fall in demand c. a rise in supply d. a fall in supply 9. Identify the most accurate statement. A price floor will have the largest effect if it is set: a. b. c. d. substantially above the equilibrium price slightly above the equilibrium price slightly below the equilibrium price substantially below the equilibrium price Sketch all four of these possibilities on a demand and supply diagram to illustrate your answer. 10. A price ceiling will have the largest effect: substantially below the equilibrium price slightly below the equilibrium price substantially above the equilibrium price slightly above the equilibrium price a. b. c. d. Sketch all four of these possibilities on a demand and supply diagram to illustrate your answer. 11. Select the correct answer. A price floor will usually shift: a. demand b. supply c. both d. neither Illustrate your answer with a diagram. 12. Select the correct answer. A price ceiling will usually shift: a. demand b. supply c. both d. neither REVIEW QUESTIONS 13. What is the “price” commonly called in the labor market? 15. Name some factors that can cause a shift in the demand curve in labor markets. 14. Are households demanders or suppliers in the goods market? Are firms demanders or suppliers in the goods market? What about the labor market and the financial market? 16. Name some factors that can cause a shift in the supply curve in labor markets. 17. How do economists define equilibrium in financial markets? This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets 105 18. What would be a sign of a shortage in financial markets? 19. Would usury laws help or hinder resolution of a shortage in financial
|
markets? 20. Whether the product market or the labor market, what happens to the equilibrium price and quantity for each of the four possibilities: increase in demand, decrease in demand, increase in supply, and decrease in supply. CRITICAL THINKING QUESTIONS 21. Other than the demand for labor, what would be another example of a “derived demand?” 22. Suppose that a 5% increase in the minimum wage causes a 5% reduction in employment. How would this affect employers and how would it affect workers? In your opinion, would this be a good policy? 23. Under what circumstances would a minimum wage be a nonbinding price floor? Under what circumstances would a living wage be a binding price floor? 24. Suppose the U.S. economy began to grow more rapidly than other countries in the world. What would be the likely impact on U.S. financial markets as part of the global economy? 25. If the government imposed a federal interest rate ceiling of 20% on all loans, who would gain and who would lose? 26. Why are the factors that shift the demand for a product different from the factors that shift the demand for labor? Why are the factors that shift the supply of a product different from those that shift the supply of labor? PROBLEMS 27. During a discussion several years ago on building a pipeline to Alaska to carry natural gas, the U.S. Senate passed a bill stipulating that there should be a guaranteed minimum price for the natural gas that would flow through the pipeline. The thinking behind the bill was that if private firms had a guaranteed price for their natural gas, they would be more willing to drill for gas and to pay to build the pipeline. a. Using the demand and supply framework, predict the effects of this price floor on the price, quantity demanded, and quantity supplied. b. With the enactment of this price floor for natural gas, what are some of the likely unintended consequences in the market? c. Suggest some policies other than the price floor that the government can pursue if it wishes to encourage drilling for natural gas and for a new pipeline in Alaska. 28. Identify each of the following as involving either demand or supply. Draw a circular flow diagram and label the flows A through F. (Some choices can be on both sides of the goods market.) 29. Predict how each of the following events will raise or lower the equilibrium wage and quantity of oil workers in Texas. In each case, sketch a demand and supply diagram to illustrate your
|
answer. a. Households in the labor market b. Firms in the goods market c. Firms in the financial market d. Households in the goods market e. Firms in the labor market f. Households in the financial market a. The price of oil rises. b. New oil-drilling equipment is invented that is cheap and requires few workers to run. c. Several major companies that do not drill oil open factories in Texas, offering many well-paid jobs outside the oil industry. d. Government imposes costly new regulations to make oil-drilling a safer job. 106 Chapter 4 | Labor and Financial Markets 30. Predict how each of the following economic changes will affect the equilibrium price and quantity in the financial market for home loans. Sketch a demand and supply diagram to support your answers. a. The number of people at the most common ages for home-buying increases. b. People gain confidence that the economy is 32. Imagine that to preserve the traditional way of life in small fishing villages, a government decides to impose a price floor that will guarantee all fishermen a certain price for their catch. a. Using the demand and supply framework, the effects on the price, quantity predict demanded, and quantity supplied. b. With the enactment of this price floor for fish, likely unintended some of are what the consequences in the market? c. Suggest some policies other than the price floor to make it possible for small fishing villages to continue. 33. What happens to the price and the quantity bought and sold in the cocoa market if countries producing cocoa experience a drought and a new study is released demonstrating the health benefits of cocoa? Illustrate your answer with a demand and supply graph. growing and that their jobs are secure. c. Banks that have made home loans find that a larger number of people than they expected are not repaying those loans. d. Because of a threat of a war, people become uncertain about their economic future. e. The overall diminishes. level of saving in the economy f. The federal government changes its bank regulations in a way that makes it cheaper and easier for banks to make home loans. 31. Table 4.6 shows the amount of savings and borrowing in a market for loans to purchase homes, measured in millions of dollars, at various interest rates. What is the equilibrium interest rate and quantity in the capital financial market? How can you tell? Now, imagine that because of a shift in the perceptions of foreign investors, the supply curve shifts so that there will be $10
|
million less supplied at every interest rate. Calculate the new equilibrium interest rate and quantity, and explain why the direction of the interest rate shift makes intuitive sense. Interest Rate Qs Qd 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Table 4.6 130 135 140 145 150 155 170 150 140 135 125 110 This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 5 | Elasticity 107 5 | Elasticity Figure 5.1 Netflix On-Demand Media Netflix, Inc. is an American provider of on-demand Internet streaming media to many countries around the world, including the United States, and of flat rate DVD-by-mail in the United States. (Credit: modification of work by Traci Lawson/Flickr Creative Commons) That Will Be How Much? Imagine going to your favorite coffee shop and having the waiter inform you the pricing has changed. Instead of $3 for a cup of coffee, you will now be charged $2 for coffee, $1 for creamer, and $1 for your choice of sweetener. If you pay your usual $3 for a cup of coffee, you must choose between creamer and sweetener. If you want both, you now face an extra charge of $1. Sound absurd? Well, that is similar to the situation Netflix customers found themselves in—they faced a 60% price hike to retain the same service in 2011. In early 2011, Netflix consumers paid about $10 a month for a package consisting of streaming video and DVD rentals. In July 2011, the company announced a packaging change. Customers wishing to retain both streaming video and DVD rental would be charged $15.98 per month, a price increase of about 60%. In 2014, Netflix also raised its streaming video subscription price from $7.99 to $8.99 per month for new U.S. customers. The company also changed its policy of 4K streaming content from $9.00 to $12.00 per month that year. 108 Chapter 5 | Elasticity How would customers of the 18-year-old firm react? Would they abandon Netflix? Would the ease of access to other venues make a difference in how consumers responded to the Netflix price change? We will explore the answers to those questions in this chapter, which focuses on the change in quantity with respect to a change in price, a concept economists call elasticity. Introduction to Elasticity In this chapter, you will learn about: • Price Elasticity
|
of Demand and Price Elasticity of Supply • Polar Cases of Elasticity and Constant Elasticity • Elasticity and Pricing • Elasticity in Areas Other Than Price Anyone who has studied economics knows the law of demand: a higher price will lead to a lower quantity demanded. What you may not know is how much lower the quantity demanded will be. Similarly, the law of supply states that a higher price will lead to a higher quantity supplied. The question is: How much higher? This chapter will explain how to answer these questions and why they are critically important in the real world. To find answers to these questions, we need to understand the concept of elasticity. Elasticity is an economics concept that measures responsiveness of one variable to changes in another variable. Suppose you drop two items from a second-floor balcony. The first item is a tennis ball. The second item is a brick. Which will bounce higher? Obviously, the tennis ball. We would say that the tennis ball has greater elasticity. Consider an economic example. Cigarette taxes are an example of a “sin tax,” a tax on something that is bad for you, like alcohol. Governments tax cigarettes at the state and national levels. State taxes range from a low of 17 cents per pack in Missouri to $4.35 per pack in New York. The average state cigarette tax is $1.69 per pack. The 2014 federal tax rate on cigarettes was $1.01 per pack, but in 2015 the Obama Administration proposed raising the federal tax nearly a dollar to $1.95 per pack. The key question is: How much would cigarette purchases decline? Taxes on cigarettes serve two purposes: to raise tax revenue for government and to discourage cigarette consumption. However, if a higher cigarette tax discourages consumption considerably, meaning a greatly reduced quantity of cigarette sales, then the cigarette tax on each pack will not raise much revenue for the government. Alternatively, a higher cigarette tax that does not discourage consumption by much will actually raise more tax revenue for the government. Thus, when a government agency tries to calculate the effects of altering its cigarette tax, it must analyze how much the tax affects the quantity of cigarettes consumed. This issue reaches beyond governments and taxes. Every firm faces a similar issue. When a firm considers raising the sales price, it must consider how much a price increase will reduce the quantity demanded of what it sells. Conversely, when a firm puts its products on sale, it must expect (or hope) that the lower price will lead to a significantly higher quantity demanded
|
. 5.1 | Price Elasticity of Demand and Price Elasticity of Supply By the end of this section, you will be able to: • Calculate the price elasticity of demand • Calculate the price elasticity of supply Both the demand and supply curve show the relationship between price and the number of units demanded or supplied. Price elasticity is the ratio between the percentage change in the quantity demanded (Qd) or supplied (Qs) and the corresponding percent change in price. The price elasticity of demand is the percentage change in the quantity demanded of a good or service divided by the percentage change in the price. The price elasticity of supply is the percentage change in quantity supplied divided by the percentage change in price. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 5 | Elasticity 109 We can usefully divide elasticities into three broad categories: elastic, inelastic, and unitary. An elastic demand or elastic supply is one in which the elasticity is greater than one, indicating a high responsiveness to changes in price. Elasticities that are less than one indicate low responsiveness to price changes and correspond to inelastic demand or inelastic supply. Unitary elasticities indicate proportional responsiveness of either demand or supply, as Table 5.1 summarizes. If... Then... And It Is Called... % change in quantity > % change in price % change in quantity = % change in price % change in quantity < % change in price % change in quantity % change in price > 1 % change in quantity % change in price = 1 % change in quantity % change in price < 1 Elastic Unitary Inelastic Table 5.1 Elastic, Inelastic, and Unitary: Three Cases of Elasticity Before we delve into the details of elasticity, enjoy this article (http://openstaxcollege.org/l/Super_Bowl) on elasticity and ticket prices at the Super Bowl. To calculate elasticity along a demand or supply curve economists use the average percent change in both quantity and price. This is called the Midpoint Method for Elasticity, and is represented in the following equations: % change in quantity = % change in price = ⎞ ⎠/2 ⎛ Q2 – Q1 ⎝Q2 + Q1 P2 – P1 ⎝P2 + P1 ⎛ ⎞ ⎠/
|
2 × 100 × 100 The advantage of the Midpoint Method is that one obtains the same elasticity between two price points whether there is a price increase or decrease. This is because the formula uses the same base (average quantity and average price) for both cases. Calculating Price Elasticity of Demand Let’s calculate the elasticity between points A and B and between points G and H as Figure 5.2 shows. 110 Chapter 5 | Elasticity Figure 5.2 Calculating the Price Elasticity of Demand We calculate the price elasticity of demand as the percentage change in quantity divided by the percentage change in price. First, apply the formula to calculate the elasticity as price decreases from $70 at point B to $60 at point A: % change in quantity = 3,000 – 2,800 (3,000 + 2,800)/2 × 100 × 100 = 200 2,900 = 6.9 % change in price = 60 – 70 (60 + 70)/2 × 100 × 100 = –10 65 = –15.4 Price Elasticity of Demand = 6.9% –15.4% = 0.45 Therefore, the elasticity of demand between these two points is 6.9% –15.4% which is 0.45, an amount smaller than one, showing that the demand is inelastic in this interval. Price elasticities of demand are always negative since price and quantity demanded always move in opposite directions (on the demand curve). By convention, we always talk about elasticities as positive numbers. Mathematically, we take the absolute value of the result. We will ignore this detail from now on, while remembering to interpret elasticities as positive numbers. This means that, along the demand curve between point B and A, if the price changes by 1%, the quantity demanded will change by 0.45%. A change in the price will result in a smaller percentage change in the quantity demanded. For example, a 10% increase in the price will result in only a 4.5% decrease in quantity demanded. A 10% decrease in the price will result in only a 4.5% increase in the quantity demanded. Price elasticities of demand are negative numbers indicating that the demand curve is downward sloping, but we read them as absolute values. The following Work It Out feature will walk you through calculating the price elasticity of demand. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4
|
Chapter 5 | Elasticity 111 Finding the Price Elasticity of Demand Calculate the price elasticity of demand using the data in Figure 5.2 for an increase in price from G to H. Has the elasticity increased or decreased? Step 1. We know that: Price Elasticity of Demand = % change in quantity % change in price Step 2. From the Midpoint Formula we know that: % change in quantity = % change in price = ⎛ Q2 – Q1 ⎝Q2 + Q1)/2 P2 – P1 ⎝P2 + P1)/2 ⎛ × 100 × 100 Step 3. So we can use the values provided in the figure in each equation: % change in quantity = 1,600 – 1,800 ⎝1,600 + 1,800)/2 ⎛ × 100 × 100 = –200 1,700 = –11.76 % change in price = 130 – 120 (130 + 120)/2 × 100 × 100 = 10 125 = 8.0 Step 4. Then, we can use those values to determine the price elasticity of demand: Price Elasticity of Demand = % change in quantity % change in price = –11.76 8 = 1.47 Therefore, the elasticity of demand from G to is H 1.47. The magnitude of the elasticity has increased (in absolute value) as we moved up along the demand curve from points A to B. Recall that the elasticity between these two points was 0.45. Demand was inelastic between points A and B and elastic between points G and H. This shows us that price elasticity of demand changes at different points along a straight-line demand curve. Calculating the Price Elasticity of Supply Assume that an apartment rents for $650 per month and at that price the landlord rents 10,000 units are rented as Figure 5.3 shows. When the price increases to $700 per month, the landlord supplies 13,000 units into the market. By what percentage does apartment supply increase? What is the price sensitivity? 112 Chapter 5 | Elasticity Figure 5.3 Price Elasticity of Supply We calculate the price elasticity of supply as the percentage change in quantity divided by the percentage change in price. Using the Midpoint Method, % change in quantity = 13,000 – 10,000 (13,000 + 10,000)/2 × 100 = 3,000 11,500 = 26.1 × 100 % change in price
|
= $700 – $650 ⎝$700 + $650)/2 ⎛ × 100 × 100 = 50 675 = 7.4 Price Elasticity of Supply = 26.1% 7.4% = 3.53 Again, as with the elasticity of demand, the elasticity of supply is not followed by any units. Elasticity is a ratio of one percentage change to another percentage change—nothing more—and we read it as an absolute value. In this case, a 1% rise in price causes an increase in quantity supplied of 3.5%. The greater than one elasticity of supply means that the percentage change in quantity supplied will be greater than a one percent price change. If you're starting to wonder if the concept of slope fits into this calculation, read the following Clear It Up box. Is the elasticity the slope? It is a common mistake to confuse the slope of either the supply or demand curve with its elasticity. The slope is the rate of change in units along the curve, or the rise/run (change in y over the change in x). For example, in Figure 5.2, at each point shown on the demand curve, price drops by $10 and the number of units demanded increases by 200 compared to the point to its left. The slope is –10/200 along the entire demand curve and does not change. The price elasticity, however, changes along the curve. Elasticity between points A and B was 0.45 and increased to 1.47 between points G and H. Elasticity is the percentage change, which is a different calculation from the slope and has a different meaning. When we are at the upper end of a demand curve, where price is high and the quantity demanded is low, a small change in the quantity demanded, even in, say, one unit, is pretty big in percentage terms. A change This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 5 | Elasticity 113 in price of, say, a dollar, is going to be much less important in percentage terms than it would have been at the bottom of the demand curve. Likewise, at the bottom of the demand curve, that one unit change when the quantity demanded is high will be small as a percentage. Thus, at one end of the demand curve, where we have a large percentage change in quantity demanded over a small percentage change in price, the elasticity value would be high
|
, or demand would be relatively elastic. Even with the same change in the price and the same change in the quantity demanded, at the other end of the demand curve the quantity is much higher, and the price is much lower, so the percentage change in quantity demanded is smaller and the percentage change in price is much higher. That means at the bottom of the curve we'd have a small numerator over a large denominator, so the elasticity measure would be much lower, or inelastic. As we move along the demand curve, the values for quantity and price go up or down, depending on which way we are moving, so the percentages for, say, a $1 difference in price or a one unit difference in quantity, will change as well, which means the ratios of those percentages and hence the elasticity will change. 5.2 | Polar Cases of Elasticity and Constant Elasticity By the end of this section, you will be able to: • Differentiate between infinite and zero elasticity • Analyze graphs in order to classify elasticity as constant unitary, infinite, or zero There are two extreme cases of elasticity: when elasticity equals zero and when it is infinite. A third case is that of constant unitary elasticity. We will describe each case. Infinite elasticity or perfect elasticity refers to the extreme case where either the quantity demanded (Qd) or supplied (Qs) changes by an infinite amount in response to any change in price at all. In both cases, the supply and the demand curve are horizontal as Figure 5.4 shows. While perfectly elastic supply curves are for the most part unrealistic, goods with readily available inputs and whose production can easily expand will feature highly elastic supply curves. Examples include pizza, bread, books, and pencils. Similarly, perfectly elastic demand is an extreme example. However, luxury goods, items that take a large share of individuals’ income, and goods with many substitutes are likely to have highly elastic demand curves. Examples of such goods are Caribbean cruises and sports vehicles. Figure 5.4 Infinite Elasticity The horizontal lines show that an infinite quantity will be demanded or supplied at a specific price. This illustrates the cases of a perfectly (or infinitely) elastic demand curve and supply curve. The quantity supplied or demanded is extremely responsive to price changes, moving from zero for prices close to P to infinite when prices reach P. Zero elasticity or perfect inelasticity, as Figure 5.5 depicts, refers to the extreme case in which
|
a percentage change in price, no matter how large, results in zero change in quantity. While a perfectly inelastic supply is an extreme example, goods with limited supply of inputs are likely to feature highly inelastic supply curves. Examples include diamond rings or housing in prime locations such as apartments facing Central Park in New York City. Similarly, 114 Chapter 5 | Elasticity while perfectly inelastic demand is an extreme case, necessities with no close substitutes are likely to have highly inelastic demand curves. This is the case of life-saving drugs and gasoline. Figure 5.5 Zero Elasticity The vertical supply curve and vertical demand curve show that there will be zero percentage change in quantity (a) demanded or (b) supplied, regardless of the price. Constant unitary elasticity, in either a supply or demand curve, occurs when a price change of one percent results in a quantity change of one percent. Figure 5.6 shows a demand curve with constant unit elasticity. Constant unitary elasticity, in either a supply or demand curve, occurs when a price change of one percent results in a quantity change of one percent. Figure 5.6 shows a demand curve with constant unit elasticity. Using the midpoint method, you can calculate that between points A and B on the demand curve, the price changes by 28.6% and quantity demanded also changes by 28.6%. Hence, the elasticity equals 1. Between points B and C, price again changes by 28.6% as does quantity, while between points C and D the corresponding percentage changes are 22.2% for both price and quantity. In each case, then, the percentage change in price equals the percentage change in quantity, and consequently elasticity equals 1. Notice that in absolute value, the declines in price, as you step down the demand curve, are not identical. Instead, the price falls by $2.00 from A to B, by a smaller amount of $1.50 from B to C, and by a still smaller amount of $0.90 from C to D. As a result, a demand curve with constant unitary elasticity moves from a steeper slope on the left and a flatter slope on the right—and a curved shape overall. Notice that in absolute value, the declines in price, as you step down the demand curve, are not identical. Instead, the price falls by $23 from A to B, by a smaller amount of $1.50 from B to C, and
|
by a still smaller amount of $.90 from C to D. As a result, a demand curve with constant unitary elasticity has a steeper slope on the left and a flatter slope on the right—and a curved shape overall. Figure 5.6 A Constant Unitary Elasticity Demand Curve A demand curve with constant unitary elasticity will be a curved line. Notice how price and quantity demanded change by an identical percentage amount between each pair of points on the demand curve. Unlike the demand curve with unitary elasticity, the supply curve with unitary elasticity is represented by a straight This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 5 | Elasticity 115 line, and that line goes through the origin. In each pair of points on the supply curve there is an equal difference in quantity of 30. However, in percentage value, using the midpoint method, the steps are decreasing as one moves from left to right, from 28.6% to 22.2% to 18.2%, because the quantity points in each percentage calculation are getting increasingly larger, which expands the denominator in the elasticity calculation of the percentage change in quantity. Consider the price changes moving up the supply curve in Figure 5.7. From points D to E to F and to G on the supply curve, each step of $1.50 is the same in absolute value. However, if we measure the price changes in percentage change terms, using the midpoint method, they are also decreasing, from 28.6% to 22.2% to 18.2%, because the original price points in each percentage calculation are getting increasingly larger in value, increasing the denominator in the calculation of the percentage change in price. Along the constant unitary elasticity supply curve, the percentage quantity increases on the horizontal axis exactly match the percentage price increases on the vertical axis—so this supply curve has a constant unitary elasticity at all points. Figure 5.7 A Constant Unitary Elasticity Supply Curve A constant unitary elasticity supply curve is a straight line reaching up from the origin. Between each pair of points, the percentage increase in quantity supplied is the same as the percentage increase in price. 5.3 | Elasticity and Pricing By the end of this section, you will be able to: • Analyze how price elasticities impact revenue • Evaluate how elasticity can cause shifts in demand and supply • Predict how the long-run
|
and short-run impacts of elasticity affect equilibrium • Explain how the elasticity of demand and supply determine the incidence of a tax on buyers and sellers Studying elasticities is useful for a number of reasons, pricing being most important. Let’s explore how elasticity relates to revenue and pricing, both in the long and short run. First, let’s look at the elasticities of some common goods and services. Table 5.2 shows a selection of demand elasticities for different goods and services drawn from a variety of different studies by economists, listed in order of increasing elasticity. 116 Housing Goods and Services Elasticity of Price Chapter 5 | Elasticity Transatlantic air travel (economy class) Rail transit (rush hour) Electricity Taxi cabs Gasoline Transatlantic air travel (first class) Wine Beef Transatlantic air travel (business class) Kitchen and household appliances Cable TV (basic rural) Chicken Soft drinks Beer New vehicle Rail transit (off-peak) Computer Cable TV (basic urban) Cable TV (premium) Restaurant meals 0.12 0.12 0.15 0.20 0.22 0.35 0.40 0.55 0.59 0.62 0.63 0.69 0.64 0.70 0.80 0.87 1.00 1.44 1.51 1.77 2.27 Table 5.2 Some Selected Elasticities of Demand Note that demand for necessities such as housing and electricity is inelastic, while items that are not necessities such as restaurant meals are more price-sensitive. If the price of a restaurant meal increases by 10%, the quantity demanded will decrease by 22.7%. A 10% increase in the price of housing will cause only a slight decrease of 1.2% in the quantity of housing demanded. Read this article (http://openstaxcollege.org/l/Movietickets) for an example of price elasticity that may have affected you. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 5 | Elasticity 117 Does Raising Price Bring in More Revenue? Imagine that a band on tour is playing in an indoor arena with 15,000 seats. To keep this example simple, assume that the band keeps all the money from ticket sales. Assume further that the band pays the costs for its appearance, but that these costs, like travel, and setting up the stage, are the same regardless of how many people are in
|
the audience. Finally, assume that all the tickets have the same price. (The same insights apply if ticket prices are more expensive for some seats than for others, but the calculations become more complicated.) The band knows that it faces a downward-sloping demand curve; that is, if the band raises the ticket price and, it will sell fewer seats. How should the band set the ticket price to generate the most total revenue, which in this example, because costs are fixed, will also mean the highest profits for the band? Should the band sell more tickets at a lower price or fewer tickets at a higher price? The key concept in thinking about collecting the most revenue is the price elasticity of demand. Total revenue is price times the quantity of tickets sold. Imagine that the band starts off thinking about a certain price, which will result in the sale of a certain quantity of tickets. The three possibilities are in Table 5.3. If demand is elastic at that price level, then the band should cut the price, because the percentage drop in price will result in an even larger percentage increase in the quantity sold—thus raising total revenue. However, if demand is inelastic at that original quantity level, then the band should raise the ticket price, because a certain percentage increase in price will result in a smaller percentage decrease in the quantity sold—and total revenue will rise. If demand has a unitary elasticity at that quantity, then an equal percentage change in quantity will offset a moderate percentage change in the price—so the band will earn the same revenue whether it (moderately) increases or decreases the ticket price. If Demand Is... Elastic Then... Therefore... % change in Qd > % change in P A given % rise in P will be more than offset by a larger % fall in Q so that total revenue (P × Q) falls. Unitary % change in Qd = % change in P A given % rise in P will be exactly offset by an equal % fall in Q so that total revenue (P × Q) is unchanged. Inelastic % change in Qd < % change in P A given % rise in P will cause a smaller % fall in Q so that total revenue (P × Q) rises. Table 5.3 Will the Band Earn More Revenue by Changing Ticket Prices? What if the band keeps cutting price, because demand is elastic, until it reaches a level where it sells all 15,000 seats in the available arena? If demand remains
|
elastic at that quantity, the band might try to move to a bigger arena, so that it could slash ticket prices further and see a larger percentage increase in the quantity of tickets sold. However, if the 15,000-seat arena is all that is available or if a larger arena would add substantially to costs, then this option may not work. Conversely, a few bands are so famous, or have such fanatical followings, that demand for tickets may be inelastic right up to the point where the arena is full. These bands can, if they wish, keep raising the ticket price. Ironically, 118 Chapter 5 | Elasticity some of the most popular bands could make more revenue by setting prices so high that the arena is not full—but those who buy the tickets would have to pay very high prices. However, bands sometimes choose to sell tickets for less than the absolute maximum they might be able to charge, often in the hope that fans will feel happier and spend more on recordings, T-shirts, and other paraphernalia. Can Businesses Pass Costs on to Consumers? Most businesses face a day-to-day struggle to figure out ways to produce at a lower cost, as one pathway to their goal of earning higher profits. However, in some cases, the price of a key input over which the firm has no control may rise. For example, many chemical companies use petroleum as a key input, but they have no control over the world market price for crude oil. Coffee shops use coffee as a key input, but they have no control over the world market price of coffee. If the cost of a key input rises, can the firm pass those higher costs along to consumers in the form of higher prices? Conversely, if new and less expensive ways of producing are invented, can the firm keep the benefits in the form of higher profits, or will the market pressure them to pass the gains along to consumers in the form of lower prices? The price elasticity of demand plays a key role in answering these questions. Imagine that as a consumer of legal pharmaceutical products, you read a newspaper story that a technological breakthrough in the production of aspirin has occurred, so that every aspirin factory can now produce aspirin more cheaply. What does this discovery mean to you? Figure 5.8 illustrates two possibilities. In Figure 5.8 (a), the demand curve is highly inelastic. In this case, a technological breakthrough that shifts supply to the right, from S0 to S1, so that the equilibrium shifts from E
|
0 to E1, creates a substantially lower price for the product with relatively little impact on the quantity sold. In Figure 5.8 (b), the demand curve is highly elastic. In this case, the technological breakthrough leads to a much greater quantity sold in the market at very close to the original price. Consumers benefit more, in general, when the demand curve is more inelastic because the shift in the supply results in a much lower price for consumers. Figure 5.8 Passing along Cost Savings to Consumers Cost-saving gains cause supply to shift out to the right from S0 to S1; that is, at any given price, firms will be willing to supply a greater quantity. If demand is inelastic, as in (a), the result of this cost-saving technological improvement will be substantially lower prices. If demand is elastic, as in (b), the result will be only slightly lower prices. Consumers benefit in either case, from a greater quantity at a lower price, but the benefit is greater when demand is inelastic, as in (a). Aspirin producers may find themselves in a nasty bind here. The situation in Figure 5.8, with extremely inelastic demand, means that a new invention may cause the price to drop dramatically while quantity changes little. As a result, the new production technology can lead to a drop in the revenue that firms earn from aspirin sales. However, if strong competition exists between aspirin producer, each producer may have little choice but to search for and implement any breakthrough that allows it to reduce production costs. After all, if one firm decides not to implement such a cost-saving technology, other firms that do can drive them out of business. Since demand for food is generally inelastic, farmers may often face the situation in Figure 5.8 (a). That is, a surge in This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 5 | Elasticity 119 production leads to a severe drop in price that can actually decrease the total revenue that farmers receive. Conversely, poor weather or other conditions that cause a terrible year for farm production can sharply raise prices so that the total revenue that the farmer receives increases. The Clear It Up box discusses how these issues relate to coffee. How do coffee prices fluctuate? Coffee is an international crop. The top five coffee-exporting nations are Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, and Ethiopia. In these nations and others, 20 million
|
families depend on selling coffee beans as their main source of income. These families are exposed to enormous risk, because the world price of coffee bounces up and down. For example, in 1993, the world price of coffee was about 50 cents per pound. In 1995 it was four times as high, at $2 per pound. By 1997 it had fallen by half to $1.00 per pound. In 1998 it leaped back up to $2 per pound. By 2001 it had fallen back to 46 cents a pound. By early 2011 it rose to about $2.31 per pound. By the end of 2012, the price had fallen back to about $1.31 per pound. The reason for these price fluctuations lies in a combination of inelastic demand and shifts in supply. The elasticity of coffee demand is only about 0.3; that is, a 10% rise in the price of coffee leads to a decline of about 3% in the quantity of coffee consumed. When a major frost hit the Brazilian coffee crop in 1994, coffee supply shifted to the left with an inelastic demand curve, leading to much higher prices. Conversely, when Vietnam entered the world coffee market as a major producer in the late 1990s, the supply curve shifted out to the right. With a highly inelastic demand curve, coffee prices fell dramatically. Figure 5.8 (a) illustrates this situation. Elasticity also reveals whether firms can pass higher costs that they incur on to consumers. Addictive substances, for which demand is inelastic, are products for which producers can pass higher costs on to consumers. For example, the demand for cigarettes is relatively inelastic among regular smokers who are somewhat addicted. Economic research suggests that increasing cigarette prices by 10% leads to about a 3% reduction in the quantity of cigarettes that adults smoke, so the elasticity of demand for cigarettes is 0.3. If society increases taxes on companies that produce cigarettes, the result will be, as in Figure 5.9 (a), that the supply curve shifts from S0 to S1. However, as the equilibrium moves from E0 to E1, governments mainly pass along these taxes to consumers in the form of higher prices. These higher taxes on cigarettes will raise tax revenue for the government, but they will not much affect the quantity of smoking. If the goal is to reduce the quantity of cigarettes demanded, we must achieve it by shifting this inelastic demand back to the left, perhaps with public programs to discourage cigarette use or to
|
help people to quit. For example, anti-smoking advertising campaigns have shown some ability to reduce smoking. However, if cigarette demand were more elastic, as in Figure 5.9 (b), then an increase in taxes that shifts supply from S0 to S1 and equilibrium from E0 to E1 would reduce the quantity of cigarettes smoked substantially. Youth smoking seems to be more elastic than adult smoking—that is, the quantity of youth smoking will fall by a greater percentage than the quantity of adult smoking in response to a given percentage increase in price. 120 Chapter 5 | Elasticity Figure 5.9 Passing along Higher Costs to Consumers Higher costs, like a higher tax on cigarette companies for the example we gave in the text, lead supply to shift to the left. This shift is identical in (a) and (b). However, in (a), where demand is inelastic, companies largely can pass the cost increase along to consumers in the form of higher prices, without much of a decline in equilibrium quantity. In (b), demand is elastic, so the shift in supply results primarily in a lower equilibrium quantity. Consumers suffer in either case, but in (a), they suffer from paying a higher price for the same quantity, while in (b), they suffer from buying a lower quantity (and presumably needing to shift their consumption elsewhere). Elasticity and Tax Incidence The example of cigarette taxes demonstrated that because demand is inelastic, taxes are not effective at reducing the equilibrium quantity of smoking, and they mainly pass along to consumers in the form of higher prices. The analysis, or manner, of how a tax burden is divided between consumers and producers is called tax incidence. Typically, the tax incidence, or burden, falls both on the consumers and producers of the taxed good. However, if one wants to predict which group will bear most of the burden, all one needs to do is examine the elasticity of demand and supply. In the tobacco example, the tax burden falls on the most inelastic side of the market. If demand is more inelastic than supply, consumers bear most of the tax burden, and if supply is more inelastic than demand, sellers bear most of the tax burden. The intuition for this is simple. When the demand is inelastic, consumers are not very responsive to price changes, and the quantity demanded reduces only modestly when the tax is introduced. In the case of smoking, the demand is inelastic because consumers are addicted to the product. The government can then pass
|
the tax burden along to consumers in the form of higher prices, without much of a decline in the equilibrium quantity. Similarly, when a government introduces a tax in a market with an inelastic supply, such as, for example, beachfront hotels, and sellers have no alternative than to accept lower prices for their business, taxes do not greatly affect the equilibrium quantity. The tax burden now passes on to the sellers. If the supply was elastic and sellers had the possibility of reorganizing their businesses to avoid supplying the taxed good, the tax burden on the sellers would be much smaller. The tax would result in a much lower quantity sold instead of lower prices received. Figure 5.10 illustrates this relationship between the tax incidence and elasticity of demand and supply. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 5 | Elasticity 121 Figure 5.10 Elasticity and Tax Incidence An excise tax introduces a wedge between the price paid by consumers (Pc) and the price received by producers (Pp). The vertical distance between Pc and Pp is the amount of the tax per unit. Pe is the equilibrium price prior to introduction of the tax. (a) When the demand is more elastic than supply, the tax incidence on consumers Pc – Pe is lower than the tax incidence on producers Pe – Pp. (b) When the supply is more elastic than demand, the tax incidence on consumers Pc – Pe is larger than the tax incidence on producers Pe – Pp. The more elastic the demand and supply curves, the lower the tax revenue. In Figure 5.10 (a), the supply is inelastic and the demand is elastic, such as in the example of beachfront hotels. While consumers may have other vacation choices, sellers can’t easily move their businesses. By introducing a tax, the government essentially creates a wedge between the price paid by consumers Pc and the price received by producers Pp. In other words, of the total price paid by consumers, part is retained by the sellers and part is paid to the government in the form of a tax. The distance between Pc and Pp is the tax rate. The new market price is Pc, but sellers receive only Pp per unit sold, as they pay Pc-Pp to the government. Since we can view a tax as raising the costs of production, this could also be represented by a leftward shift of the
|
supply curve, where the new supply curve would intercept the demand at the new quantity Qt. For simplicity, Figure 5.10 omits the shift in the supply curve. The tax revenue is given by the shaded area, which we obtain by multiplying the tax per unit by the total quantity sold Qt. The tax incidence on the consumers is given by the difference between the price paid Pc and the initial equilibrium price Pe. The tax incidence on the sellers is given by the difference between the initial equilibrium price Pe and the price they receive after the tax is introduced Pp. In Figure 5.10 (a), the tax burden falls disproportionately on the sellers, and a larger proportion of the tax revenue (the shaded area) is due to the resulting lower price received by the sellers than by the resulting higher prices paid by the buyers. Figure 5.10 (b) describes the example of the tobacco excise tax where the supply is more elastic than demand. The tax incidence now falls disproportionately on consumers, as shown by the large difference between the price they pay, Pc, and the initial equilibrium price, Pe. Sellers receive a lower price than before the tax, but this difference is much smaller than the change in consumers’ price. From this analysis one can also predict whether a tax is likely to create a large revenue or not. The more elastic the demand curve, the more likely that consumers will reduce quantity instead of paying higher prices. The more elastic the supply curve, the more likely that sellers will reduce the quantity sold, instead of taking lower prices. In a market where both the demand and supply are very elastic, the imposition of an excise tax generates low revenue. Some believe that excise taxes hurt mainly the specific industries they target. For example, the medical device excise tax, in effect since 2013, has been controversial for it can delay industry profitability and therefore hamper startups and medical innovation. However, whether the tax burden falls mostly on the medical device industry or on the patients depends simply on the elasticity of demand and supply. Long-Run vs. Short-Run Impact Elasticities are often lower in the short run than in the long run. On the demand side of the market, it can sometimes be difficult to change Qd in the short run, but easier in the long run. Consumption of energy is a clear example. In the short run, it is not easy for a person to make substantial changes in energy consumption. Maybe you can carpool to work sometimes or adjust your home thermostat by a few degrees
|
if the cost of energy rises, but that is about all. 122 Chapter 5 | Elasticity However, in the long run you can purchase a car that gets more miles to the gallon, choose a job that is closer to where you live, buy more energy-efficient home appliances, or install more insulation in your home. As a result, the elasticity of demand for energy is somewhat inelastic in the short run, but much more elastic in the long run. Figure 5.11 is an example, based roughly on historical experience, for the responsiveness of Qd to price changes. In 1973, the price of crude oil was $12 per barrel and total consumption in the U.S. economy was 17 million barrels per day. That year, the nations who were members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut off oil exports to the United States for six months because the Arab members of OPEC disagreed with the U.S. support for Israel. OPEC did not bring exports back to their earlier levels until 1975—a policy that we can interpret as a shift of the supply curve to the left in the U.S. petroleum market. Figure 5.11 (a) and Figure 5.11 (b) show the same original equilibrium point and the same identical shift of a supply curve to the left from S0 to S1. Figure 5.11 How a Shift in Supply Can Affect Price or Quantity The intersection (E0) between demand curve D and supply curve S0 is the same in both (a) and (b). The shift of supply to the left from S0 to S1 is identical in both (a) and (b). The new equilibrium (E1) has a higher price and a lower quantity than the original equilibrium (E0) in both (a) and (b). However, the shape of the demand curve D is different in (a) and (b), being more elastic in (b) than in (a). As a result, the shift in supply can result either in a new equilibrium with a much higher price and an only slightly smaller quantity, as in (a), with more inelastic demand, or in a new equilibrium with only a small increase in price and a relatively larger reduction in quantity, as in (b), with more elastic demand. Figure 5.11 (a) shows inelastic demand for oil in the short run similar to that which existed for the United States in 1973. In Figure 5.11 (a), the
|
new equilibrium (E1) occurs at a price of $25 per barrel, roughly double the price before the OPEC shock, and an equilibrium quantity of 16 million barrels per day. Figure 5.11 (b) shows what the outcome would have been if the U.S. demand for oil had been more elastic, a result more likely over the long term. This alternative equilibrium (E1) would have resulted in a smaller price increase to $14 per barrel and larger reduction in equilibrium quantity to 13 million barrels per day. In 1983, for example, U.S. petroleum consumption was 15.3 million barrels a day, which was lower than in 1973 or 1975. U.S. petroleum consumption was down even though the U.S. economy was about one-fourth larger in 1983 than it had been in 1973. The primary reason for the lower quantity was that higher energy prices spurred conservation efforts, and after a decade of home insulation, more fuel-efficient cars, more efficient appliances and machinery, and other fuel-conserving choices, the demand curve for energy had become more elastic. On the supply side of markets, producers of goods and services typically find it easier to expand production in the long term of several years rather than in the short run of a few months. After all, in the short run it can be costly or difficult to build a new factory, hire many new workers, or open new stores. However, over a few years, all of these are possible. In most markets for goods and services, prices bounce up and down more than quantities in the short run, but quantities often move more than prices in the long run. The underlying reason for this pattern is that supply and demand are often inelastic in the short run, so that shifts in either demand or supply can cause a relatively greater This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 5 | Elasticity 123 change in prices. However, since supply and demand are more elastic in the long run, the long-run movements in prices are more muted, while quantity adjusts more easily in the long run. 5.4 | Elasticity in Areas Other Than Price By the end of this section, you will be able to: • Calculate the income elasticity of demand and the cross-price elasticity of demand • Calculate the elasticity in labor and financial capital markets through an understanding of the elasticity of labor supply and the elasticity of savings • Apply concepts
|
of price elasticity to real-world situations The basic idea of elasticity—how a percentage change in one variable causes a percentage change in another variable—does not just apply to the responsiveness quantity supplied and quantity demanded to changes in the price of a product. Recall that quantity demanded (Qd) depends on income, tastes and preferences, the prices of related goods, and so on, as well as price. Similarly, quantity supplied (Qs) depends on factors such as the cost of production, as well as price. We can measure elasticity for any determinant of quantity supplied and quantity demanded, not just the price. Income Elasticity of Demand The income elasticity of demand is the percentage change in quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in income. Income elasticity of demand = % change in quantity demanded % change in income For most products, most of the time, the income elasticity of demand is positive: that is, a rise in income will cause an increase in the quantity demanded. This pattern is common enough that we refer to these goods as normal goods. However, for a few goods, an increase in income means that one might purchase less of the good. For example, those with a higher income might buy fewer hamburgers, because they are buying more steak instead, or those with a higher income might buy less cheap wine and more imported beer. When the income elasticity of demand is negative, we call the good an inferior good. We introduced the concepts of normal and inferior goods in Demand and Supply. A higher level of income causes a demand curve to shift to the right for a normal good, which means that the income elasticity of demand is positive. How far the demand shifts depends on the income elasticity of demand. A higher income elasticity means a larger shift. However, for an inferior good, that is, when the income elasticity of demand is negative, a higher level of income would cause the demand curve for that good to shift to the left. Again, how much it shifts depends on how large the (negative) income elasticity is. Cross-Price Elasticity of Demand A change in the price of one good can shift the quantity demanded for another good. If the two goods are complements, like bread and peanut butter, then a drop in the price of one good will lead to an increase in the quantity demanded of the other good. However, if the two goods are substitutes, like plane tickets and train tickets, then a drop in the price of one good will cause people
|
to substitute toward that good, and to reduce consumption of the other good. Cheaper plane tickets lead to fewer train tickets, and vice versa. The cross-price elasticity of demand puts some meat on the bones of these ideas. The term “cross-price” refers to the idea that the price of one good is affecting the quantity demanded of a different good. Specifically, the cross-price elasticity of demand is the percentage change in the quantity of good A that is demanded as a result of a percentage change in the price of good B. Cross-price elasticity of demand = % change in Qd of good A % change in price of good B Substitute goods have positive cross-price elasticities of demand: if good A is a substitute for good B, like coffee and tea, then a higher price for B will mean a greater quantity consumed of A. Complement goods have negative crossprice elasticities: if good A is a complement for good B, like coffee and sugar, then a higher price for B will mean a 124 Chapter 5 | Elasticity lower quantity consumed of A. Elasticity in Labor and Financial Capital Markets The concept of elasticity applies to any market, not just markets for goods and services. In the labor market, for example, the wage elasticity of labor supply—that is, the percentage change in hours worked divided by the percentage change in wages—will reflect the shape of the labor supply curve. Specifically: Elasticity of labor supply = % change in quantity of labor supplied % change in wage The wage elasticity of labor supply for teenage workers is generally fairly elastic: that is, a certain percentage change in wages will lead to a larger percentage change in the quantity of hours worked. Conversely, the wage elasticity of labor supply for adult workers in their thirties and forties is fairly inelastic. When wages move up or down by a certain percentage amount, the quantity of hours that adults in their prime earning years are willing to supply changes but by a lesser percentage amount. In markets for financial capital, the elasticity of savings—that is, the percentage change in the quantity of savings divided by the percentage change in interest rates—will describe the shape of the supply curve for financial capital. That is: Elasticity of savings = % change in quantity of financial s vings % change in interest rate Sometimes laws are proposed that seek to increase the quantity of savings by offering tax breaks so that the return on savings is higher. Such a policy will have
|
a comparatively large impact on increasing the quantity saved if the supply curve for financial capital is elastic, because then a given percentage increase in the return to savings will cause a higher percentage increase in the quantity of savings. However, if the supply curve for financial capital is highly inelastic, then a percentage increase in the return to savings will cause only a small increase in the quantity of savings. The evidence on the supply curve of financial capital is controversial but, at least in the short run, the elasticity of savings with respect to the interest rate appears fairly inelastic. Expanding the Concept of Elasticity The elasticity concept does not even need to relate to a typical supply or demand curve at all. For example, imagine that you are studying whether the Internal Revenue Service should spend more money on auditing tax returns. We can frame the question in terms of the elasticity of tax collections with respect to spending on tax enforcement; that is, what is the percentage change in tax collections derived from a given percentage change in spending on tax enforcement? With all of the elasticity concepts that we have just described, some of which are in Table 5.4, the possibility of confusion arises. When you hear the phrases “elasticity of demand” or “elasticity of supply,” they refer to the elasticity with respect to price. Sometimes, either to be extremely clear or because economists are discussing a wide variety of elasticities, we will call the elasticity of demand or the demand elasticity the price elasticity of demand or the “elasticity of demand with respect to price.” Similarly, economists sometimes use the term elasticity of supply or the supply elasticity, to avoid any possibility of confusion, the price elasticity of supply or “the elasticity of supply with respect to price.” However, in whatever context, the idea of elasticity always refers to percentage change in one variable, almost always a price or money variable, and how it causes a percentage change in another variable, typically a quantity variable of some kind. Income elasticity of demand = % change in Qd % change in income Cross-price elasticity of demand = % change in Qd of good A % change in price of good B Table 5.4 Formulas for Calculating Elasticity This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 5 | Elasticity 125 Wage elasticity of labor supply = % change
|
in quantity of labor supplied % change in wage Wage elasticity of labor demand = % change in quantity of labor demanded % change in wage Interest rate elasticity of savings = % change in quantity of savings % change in interest rate Interest rate elasticity of borrowing = % change in quantity of borrowing % change in interest rate Table 5.4 Formulas for Calculating Elasticity That Will Be How Much? How did the 60% price increase in 2011 end up for Netflix? It has been a very bumpy ride. Before the price increase, there were about 24.6 million U.S. subscribers. After the price increase, 810,000 infuriated U.S. consumers canceled their Netflix subscriptions, dropping the total number of subscribers to 23.79 million. Fast forward to June 2013, when there were 36 million streaming Netflix subscribers in the United States. This was an increase of 11.4 million subscribers since the price increase—an average per quarter growth of about 1.6 million. This growth is less than the 2 million per quarter increases Netflix experienced in the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011. During the first year after the price increase, the firm’s stock price (a measure of future expectations for the firm) fell from about $33.60 per share per share to just under $7.80. By the end of 2016, however, the stock price was at $123 per share. Today, Netflix has more than 86 million subscribers million subscribers in fifty countries. What happened? Obviously, Netflix company officials understood the law of demand. Company officials reported, when announcing the price increase, in the loss of about 600,000 existing subscribers. Using the elasticity of demand formula, it is easy to see company officials expected an inelastic response: this could result = –600,000/[(24 million + 24.6 million)/2] $6/[($10 + $16)/2] = –600,000/24.3 million $6/$13 = –0.025 0.46 = –0.05 In addition, Netflix officials had anticipated the price increase would have little impact on attracting new customers. Netflix anticipated adding up to 1.29 million new subscribers in the third quarter of 2011. It is true this was slower growth than the firm had experienced—about 2 million per quarter. Why was the estimate of customers leaving so far off? In the more than two decades since Netflix had been founded, there was an increase in the number of close, but
|
not perfect, substitutes. Consumers now had choices ranging from Vudu, Amazon Prime, Hulu, and Redbox, to retail stores. Jaime Weinman reported in Maclean’s that Redbox kiosks are “a five-minute drive for less from 68 percent of Americans, and it seems that many people still find a five-minute drive more convenient than loading up a movie online.” It seems that in 2012, many consumers still preferred a physical DVD disk over streaming video. What missteps did the Netflix management make? In addition to misjudging the elasticity of demand, by failing 126 Chapter 5 | Elasticity to account for close substitutes, it seems they may have also misjudged customers’ preferences and tastes. Yet, as the population increases, the preference for streaming video may overtake physical DVD disks. Netflix, the source of numerous late night talk show laughs and jabs in 2011, may yet have the last laugh. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 5 | Elasticity KEY TERMS 127 constant unitary elasticity when a given percent price change in price leads to an equal percentage change in quantity demanded or supplied cross-price elasticity of demand the percentage change in the quantity of good A that is demanded as a result of a percentage change in good B elastic demand when the elasticity of demand is greater than one, indicating a high responsiveness of quantity demanded or supplied to changes in price elastic supply when the elasticity of either supply is greater than one, indicating a high responsiveness of quantity demanded or supplied to changes in price elasticity an economics concept that measures responsiveness of one variable to changes in another variable elasticity of savings the percentage change in the quantity of savings divided by the percentage change in interest rates inelastic demand when the elasticity of demand is less than one, indicating that a 1 percent increase in price paid by the consumer leads to less than a 1 percent change in purchases (and vice versa); this indicates a low responsiveness by consumers to price changes inelastic supply when the elasticity of supply is less than one, indicating that a 1 percent increase in price paid to the firm will result in a less than 1 percent increase in production by the firm; this indicates a low responsiveness of the firm to price increases (and vice versa if prices drop) infinite elasticity the extremely elastic situation of demand or supply where quantity changes by an infinite amount in response to any change in price; horizontal
|
in appearance perfect elasticity see infinite elasticity perfect inelasticity see zero elasticity price elasticity the relationship between the percent change in price resulting in a corresponding percentage change in the quantity demanded or supplied price elasticity of demand percentage change in the quantity demanded of a good or service divided the percentage change in price price elasticity of supply percentage change in the quantity supplied divided by the percentage change in price tax incidence manner in which the tax burden is divided between buyers and sellers unitary elasticity when the calculated elasticity is equal to one indicating that a change in the price of the good or service results in a proportional change in the quantity demanded or supplied wage elasticity of labor supply the percentage change in hours worked divided by the percentage change in wages zero inelasticity the highly inelastic case of demand or supply in which a percentage change in price, no matter how large, results in zero change in the quantity; vertical in appearance 128 Chapter 5 | Elasticity KEY CONCEPTS AND SUMMARY 5.1 Price Elasticity of Demand and Price Elasticity of Supply Price elasticity measures the responsiveness of the quantity demanded or supplied of a good to a change in its price. We compute it as the percentage change in quantity demanded (or supplied) divided by the percentage change in price. We can describe elasticity as elastic (or very responsive), unit elastic, or inelastic (not very responsive). Elastic demand or supply curves indicate that quantity demanded or supplied respond to price changes in a greater than proportional manner. An inelastic demand or supply curve is one where a given percentage change in price will cause a smaller percentage change in quantity demanded or supplied. A unitary elasticity means that a given percentage change in price leads to an equal percentage change in quantity demanded or supplied. 5.2 Polar Cases of Elasticity and Constant Elasticity Infinite or perfect elasticity refers to the extreme case where either the quantity demanded or supplied changes by an infinite amount in response to any change in price at all. Zero elasticity refers to the extreme case in which a percentage change in price, no matter how large, results in zero change in quantity. Constant unitary elasticity in either a supply or demand curve refers to a situation where a price change of one percent results in a quantity change of one percent. 5.3 Elasticity and Pricing In the market for goods and services, quantity supplied and quantity demanded are often relatively slow to react to changes in price in the short run, but react more substantially in the long run
|
. As a result, demand and supply often (but not always) tend to be relatively inelastic in the short run and relatively elastic in the long run. A tax incidence depends on the relative price elasticity of supply and demand. When supply is more elastic than demand, buyers bear most of the tax burden, and when demand is more elastic than supply, producers bear most of the cost of the tax. Tax revenue is larger the more inelastic the demand and supply are. 5.4 Elasticity in Areas Other Than Price Elasticity is a general term, that reflects responsiveness. It refers to the change of one variable divided by the percentage change of a related variable that we can apply to many economic connections. For instance, the income elasticity of demand is the percentage change in quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in income. The cross-price elasticity of demand is the percentage change in the quantity demanded of a good divided by the percentage change in the price of another good. Elasticity applies in labor markets and financial capital markets just as it does in markets for goods and services. The wage elasticity of labor supply is the percentage change in the quantity of hours supplied divided by the percentage change in the wage. The elasticity of savings with respect to interest rates is the percentage change in the quantity of savings divided by the percentage change in interest rates. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 5 | Elasticity 129 SELF-CHECK QUESTIONS 1. From the data in Table 5.5 about demand for smart phones, calculate the price elasticity of demand from: point B to point C, point D to point E, and point G to point H. Classify the elasticity at each point as elastic, inelastic, or unit elastic. Points Table 5.5 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 2. From the data in Table 5.6 about supply of alarm clocks, calculate the price elasticity of supply from: point J to point K, point L to point M, and point N to point P. Classify the elasticity at each point as elastic, inelastic, or unit elastic. Point Price Quantity Supplied J K L M N P Table 5.6 $8 $9 $10 $11 $12 $13 50 70 80 88 95 100 3.
|
Why is the demand curve with constant unitary elasticity concave? 4. Why is the supply curve with constant unitary elasticity a straight line? 5. The federal government decides to require that automobile manufacturers install new anti-pollution equipment that costs $2,000 per car. Under what conditions can carmakers pass almost all of this cost along to car buyers? Under what conditions can carmakers pass very little of this cost along to car buyers? 130 Chapter 5 | Elasticity 6. Suppose you are in charge of sales at a pharmaceutical company, and your firm has a new drug that causes bald men to grow hair. Assume that the company wants to earn as much revenue as possible from this drug. If the elasticity of demand for your company’s product at the current price is 1.4, would you advise the company to raise the price, lower the price, or to keep the price the same? What if the elasticity were 0.6? What if it were 1? Explain your answer. 7. What would the gasoline price elasticity of supply mean to UPS or FedEx? 8. The average annual income rises from $25,000 to $38,000, and the quantity of bread consumed in a year by the average person falls from 30 loaves to 22 loaves. What is the income elasticity of bread consumption? Is bread a normal or an inferior good? 9. Suppose the cross-price elasticity of apples with respect to the price of oranges is 0.4, and the price of oranges falls by 3%. What will happen to the demand for apples? REVIEW QUESTIONS 10. What is the formula for calculating elasticity? 11. What is the price elasticity of demand? Can you explain it in your own words? 12. What is the price elasticity of supply? Can you explain it in your own words? 13. Describe the general appearance of a demand or a supply curve with zero elasticity. 14. Describe the general appearance of a demand or a supply curve with infinite elasticity. If demand is elastic, will shifts in supply have a 15. larger effect on equilibrium quantity or on price? If demand is inelastic, will shifts in supply have a 16. larger effect on equilibrium price or on quantity? If supply is elastic, will shifts in demand have a 17. larger effect on equilibrium quantity or on price? CRITICAL THINKING QUESTIONS elasticity 25. Transatlantic air travel in business class has an estimated 0.
|
62, while transatlantic air travel in economy class has an estimated price elasticity of 0.12. Why do you think this is the case? demand of of 26. What is the relationship between price elasticity and position on the demand curve? For example, as you move up the demand curve to higher prices and lower quantities, what happens to the measured elasticity? How would you explain that? This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 If supply is inelastic, will shifts in demand have a 18. larger effect on equilibrium price or on quantity? 19. Would you usually expect elasticity of demand or supply to be higher in the short run or in the long run? Why? 20. Under which circumstances does the tax burden fall entirely on consumers? 21. What is the formula for the income elasticity of demand? 22. What is the formula for the cross-price elasticity of demand? 23. What is the formula for the wage elasticity of labor supply? 24. What is the formula for elasticity of savings with respect to interest rates? 27. Can you think of an industry (or product) with near infinite elasticity of supply in the short term? That is, what is an industry that could increase Qs almost without limit in response to an increase in the price? 28. Would you expect supply to play a more significant role in determining the price of a basic necessity like food or a luxury like perfume? Explain. Hint: Think about how the price elasticity of demand will differ between necessities and luxuries. Chapter 5 | Elasticity 131 29. A city has built a bridge over a river and it decides to charge a toll to everyone who crosses. For one year, the city charges a variety of different tolls and records information on how many drivers cross the bridge. The city thus gathers information about elasticity of demand. If the city wishes to raise as much revenue as possible from the tolls, where will the city decide to charge a toll: in the inelastic portion of the demand curve, the elastic portion of the demand curve, or the unit elastic portion? Explain. 30. In a market where the supply curve is perfectly inelastic, how does an excise tax affect the price paid by consumers and the quantity bought and sold? PROBLEMS 31. Economists define normal goods as having a positive income elasticity. We can divide normal goods into two types: Those
|
whose income elasticity is less than one and those whose income elasticity is greater than one. Think about products that would fall into each category. Can you come up with a name for each category? 32. Suppose you could buy shoes one at a time, rather the cross-price than in pairs. What do you predict elasticity for left shoes and right shoes would be? 33. The equation for a demand curve is P = 48 – 3Q. What is the elasticity in moving from a quantity of 5 to a quantity of 6? 38. Say that a certain stadium for professional football has 70,000 seats. What is the shape of the supply curve for tickets to football games at that stadium? Explain. 34. The equation for a demand curve is P = 2/Q. What is the elasticity of demand as price falls from 5 to 4? What is the elasticity of demand as the price falls from 9 to 8? Would you expect these answers to be the same? 35. The equation for a supply curve is 4P = Q. What is the elasticity of supply as price rises from 3 to 4? What is the elasticity of supply as the price rises from 7 to 8? Would you expect these answers to be the same? 36. The equation for a supply curve is P = 3Q – 8. What is the elasticity in moving from a price of 4 to a price of 7? 37. The supply of paintings by Leonardo Da Vinci, who painted the Mona Lisa and The Last Supper and died in 1519, is highly inelastic. Sketch a supply and demand diagram, paying attention to the appropriate elasticities, to illustrate that demand for these paintings will determine the price. 39. When someone’s kidneys fail, the person needs to have medical treatment with a dialysis machine (unless or until they receive a kidney transplant) or they will die. Sketch a supply and demand diagram, paying attention to the appropriate elasticities, to illustrate that the supply of such dialysis machines will primarily determine the price. 40. Assume that the supply of low-skilled workers is fairly elastic, but the employers’ demand for such workers is fairly inelastic. If the policy goal is to expand employment for low-skilled workers, is it better to focus on policy tools to shift the supply of unskilled labor or on tools to shift the demand for unskilled labor? What if the policy goal is to raise wages for this group? Explain your answers
|
with supply and demand diagrams. 132 Chapter 5 | Elasticity This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 133 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective Figure 6.1 The Great Depression At times, such as when many people having trouble making ends meet, it is easy to tell how the economy is doing. This photograph shows people lined up during the Great Depression, waiting for relief checks. At other times, when some are doing well and others are not, it is more difficult to ascertain how the economy of a country is doing. (Credit: modification of work by the U.S. Library of Congress/Wikimedia Commons) How is the Economy Doing? How Does One Tell? The 1990s were boom years for the U.S. economy. Beginning in the late 2000s, from 2007 to 2014 economic performance in in the U.S. was poor. What causes the economy to expand or contract? Why do businesses fail when they are making all the right decisions? Why do workers lose their jobs when they are hardworking and productive? Are bad economic times a failure of the market system? Are they a failure of the government? These are all questions of macroeconomics, which we will begin to address in this chapter. We will not be able to answer all of these questions here, but we will start with the basics: How is the economy doing? How can we tell? The macro economy includes all buying and selling, all production and consumption; everything that goes on in every market in the economy. How can we get a handle on that? The answer begins more than 80 years ago, during the Great Depression. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and his economic advisers knew things were bad—but how could they express and measure just how bad it was? An economist named Simon Kuznets, who later won the Nobel Prize for his work, came up with a way to track what the entire economy is producing. In this chapter, you will learn how the government constructs GDP, how we use it, and why it is so important. 134 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective Introduction to the Macroeconomic Perspective In this chapter, you will learn about: • Measuring the Size of the Economy: Gross Domestic Product • Adjusting Nominal Values to Real Values • Tracking Real GDP over Time • Comparing GDP among Countries • How Well GDP Measures the Well-Being of Society Macroeconomics focuses on the economy as a
|
whole (or on whole economies as they interact). What causes recessions? What makes unemployment stay high when recessions are supposed to be over? Why do some countries grow faster than others? Why do some countries have higher standards of living than others? These are all questions that macroeconomics addresses. Macroeconomics involves adding up the economic activity of all households and all businesses in all markets to obtain the overall demand and supply in the economy. However, when we do that, something curious happens. It is not unusual that what results at the macro level is different from the sum of the microeconomic parts. What seems sensible from a microeconomic point of view can have unexpected or counterproductive results at the macroeconomic level. Imagine that you are sitting at an event with a large audience, like a live concert or a basketball game. A few people decide that they want a better view, and so they stand up. However, when these people stand up, they block the view for other people, and the others need to stand up as well if they wish to see. Eventually, nearly everyone is standing up, and as a result, no one can see much better than before. The rational decision of some individuals at the micro level—to stand up for a better view—ended up as self-defeating at the macro level. This is not macroeconomics, but it is an apt analogy. Macroeconomics is a rather massive subject. How are we going to tackle it? Figure 6.2 illustrates the structure we will use. We will study macroeconomics from three different perspectives: 1. What are the macroeconomic goals? (Macroeconomics as a discipline does not have goals, but we do have goals for the macro economy.) 2. What are the frameworks economists can use to analyze the macroeconomy? 3. Finally, what are the policy tools governments can use to manage the macroeconomy? Figure 6.2 Macroeconomic Goals, Framework, and Policies This chart shows what macroeconomics is about. The box on the left indicates a consensus of what are the most important goals for the macro economy, the middle box lists the frameworks economists use to analyze macroeconomic changes (such as inflation or recession), and the box on the right indicates the two tools the federal government uses to influence the macro economy. Goals In thinking about the macroeconomy's overall health, it is useful to consider three primary goals: economic growth, low unemployment, and low inflation. • Economic growth ultimately determines the prevailing standard of living in
|
a country. Economists measure growth by the percentage change in real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product. A growth rate of more than 3% is considered good. • Unemployment, as measured by the unemployment rate, is the percentage of people in the labor force who do not have a job. When people lack jobs, the economy is wasting a precious resource-labor, and the result is This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 135 lower goods and services produced. Unemployment, however, is more than a statistic—it represents people’s livelihoods. While measured unemployment is unlikely to ever be zero, economists consider a measured unemployment rate of 5% or less low (good). • Inflation is a sustained increase in the overall level of prices, and is measured by the consumer price index. If many people face a situation where the prices that they pay for food, shelter, and healthcare are rising much faster than the wages they receive for their labor, there will be widespread unhappiness as their standard of living declines. For that reason, low inflation—an inflation rate of 1–2%—is a major goal. Frameworks As you learn in the micro part of this book, principal tools that economists use are theories and models (see Welcome to Economics! for more on this). In microeconomics, we used the theories of supply and demand. In macroeconomics, we use the theories of aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS). This book presents two perspectives on macroeconomics: the Neoclassical perspective and the Keynesian perspective, each of which has its own version of AD and AS. Between the two perspectives, you will obtain a good understanding of what drives the macroeconomy. Policy Tools National governments have two tools for influencing the macroeconomy. The first is monetary policy, which involves managing the money supply and interest rates. The second is fiscal policy, which involves changes in government spending/purchases and taxes. We will explain each of the items in Figure 6.2 in detail in one or more other chapters. As you learn these things, you will discover that the goals and the policy tools are in the news almost every day. 6.1 | Measuring the Size of the Economy: Gross Domestic Product By the end of this section, you will be able to: Identify the components of GDP on the demand side and on the supply
|
side • • Evaluate how economists measure gross domestic product (GDP) • Contrast and calculate GDP, net exports, and net national product Macroeconomics is an empirical subject, so the first step toward understanding it is to measure the economy. How large is the U.S. economy? Economists typically measure the size of a nation’s overall economy by its gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given year. Measuring GDP involves counting the production of millions of different goods and services—smart phones, cars, music downloads, computers, steel, bananas, college educations, and all other new goods and services that a country produced in the current year—and summing them into a total dollar value. This task is straightforward: take the quantity of everything produced, multiply it by the price at which each product sold, and add up the total. In 2016, the U.S. GDP totaled $18.6 trillion, the largest GDP in the world. Each of the market transactions that enter into GDP must involve both a buyer and a seller. We can measure an economy's GDP either by the total dollar value of what consumers purchase in the economy, or by the total dollar value of what is the country produces. There is even a third way, as we will explain later. GDP Measured by Components of Demand Who buys all of this production? We can divide this demand into four main parts: consumer spending (consumption), business spending (investment), government spending on goods and services, and spending on net exports. (See the following Clear It Up feature to understand what we mean by investment.) Table 6.1 shows how these four components added up to the GDP in 2016. Figure 6.4 (a) shows the levels of consumption, investment, and government purchases over time, expressed as a percentage of GDP, while Figure 6.4 (b) shows the levels of exports and imports as a percentage of GDP over time. A few patterns about each of these components are worth noticing. Table 6.1 shows the components of GDP from the demand side. 136 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective Components of GDP on the Demand Side (in trillions of dollars) Percentage of Total Consumption $12.8 Investment $3.0 Government $3.3 Exports Imports Total GDP $2.2 –$2.7 $18.6 68.8% 16.1% 17.7% 11.8%
|
–14.5% 100% Table 6.1 Components of U.S. GDP in 2016: From the Demand Side (Source: http://bea.gov/iTable/ index_nipa.cfm) Figure 6.3 Percentage of Components of U.S. GDP on the Demand Side Consumption makes up over half of the demand side components of the GDP. (Source: http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) What does the word “investment” mean? What do economists mean by investment, or business spending? In calculating GDP, investment does not refer to purchasing stocks and bonds or trading financial assets. It refers to purchasing new capital goods, that is, new commercial real estate (such as buildings, factories, and stores) and equipment, residential housing construction, and inventories. Inventories that manufacturers produce this year are included in this year’s GDP—even if they are not yet sold. From the accountant’s perspective, it is as if the firm invested in its own inventories. Business investment in 2016 was $3 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 137 Figure 6.4 Components of GDP on the Demand Side (a) Consumption is about two-thirds of GDP, and it has been on a slight upward trend over time. Business investment hovers around 15% of GDP, but it fluctuates more than consumption. Government spending on goods and services is slightly under 20% of GDP and has declined modestly over time. (b) Exports are added to total demand for goods and services, while imports are subtracted from total demand. If exports exceed imports, as in most of the 1960s and 1970s in the U.S. economy, a trade surplus exists. If imports exceed exports, as in recent years, then a trade deficit exists. (Source: http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) Consumption expenditure by households is the largest component of GDP, accounting for about two-thirds of the GDP in any year. This tells us that consumers’ spending decisions are a major driver of the economy. However, consumer spending is a gentle elephant: when viewed over time, it does not jump around too much, and has increased modestly from about 60%
|
of GDP in the 1960s and 1970s. Investment expenditure refers to purchases of physical plant and equipment, primarily by businesses. If Starbucks builds a new store, or Amazon buys robots, they count these expenditures under business investment. Investment demand is far smaller than consumption demand, typically accounting for only about 15–18% of GDP, but it is very important for the economy because this is where jobs are created. However, it fluctuates more noticeably than consumption. Business investment is volatile. New technology or a new product can spur business investment, but then confidence can drop and business investment can pull back sharply. If you have noticed any of the infrastructure projects (new bridges, highways, airports) launched during the 2009 recession, you have seen how important government spending can be for the economy. Government expenditure in the United States is close to 20% of GDP, and includes spending by all three levels of government: federal, state, and local. The only part of government spending counted in demand is government purchases of goods or services produced in the economy. Examples include the government buying a new fighter jet for the Air Force (federal government spending), building a new highway (state government spending), or a new school (local government spending). A significant portion of government budgets consists of transfer payments, like unemployment benefits, veteran’s benefits, and Social Security payments to retirees. The government excludes these payments from GDP because it does not receive a new good or service in return or exchange. Instead they are transfers of income from taxpayers to others. If you are curious about the awesome undertaking of adding up GDP, read the following Clear It Up feature. How do statisticians measure GDP? Government economists at Commerce, piece together estimates of GDP from a variety of sources. the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), within the U.S. Department of Once every five years, in the second and seventh year of each decade, the Bureau of the Census carries 138 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective out a detailed census of businesses throughout the United States. In between, the Census Bureau carries out a monthly survey of retail sales. The government adjusts these figures with foreign trade data to account for exports that are produced in the United States and sold abroad and for imports that are produced abroad and sold here. Once every ten years, the Census Bureau conducts a comprehensive survey of housing and residential finance. Together, these sources provide the main basis for figuring out what is produced for consumers. For investment, the Census Bureau carries out a monthly survey of construction and an annual survey of expenditures
|
on physical capital equipment. For what the federal government purchases, the statisticians rely on the U.S. Department of the Treasury. An annual Census of Governments gathers information on state and local governments. Because the government spends a considerable amount at all levels hiring people to provide services, it also tracks a large portion of spending through payroll records that state governments and the Social Security Administration collect. import and export With regard to foreign trade, documents. Additional surveys cover transportation and travel, and make adjustments for financial services that are produced in the United States for foreign customers. the Census Bureau compiles a monthly record of all Many other sources contribute to GDP estimates. Information on energy comes from the U.S. Department of Transportation and Department of Energy. The Agency for Health Care Research and Quality collects information on healthcare. Surveys of landlords find out about rental income. The Department of Agriculture collects statistics on farming. All these bits and pieces of information arrive in different forms, at different time intervals. The BEA melds them together to produce GDP estimates on a quarterly basis (every three months). The BEA then "annualizes" these numbers by multiplying by four. As more information comes in, the BEA updates and revises these estimates. BEA releases the GDP “advance” estimate for a certain quarter one month after a quarter. The “preliminary” estimate comes out one month after that. The BEA publishes the “final” estimate one month later, but it is not actually final. In July, the BEA releases roughly updated estimates for the previous calendar year. Then, once every five years, after it has processed all the results of the latest detailed five-year business census, the BEA revises all of the past GDP estimates according to the newest methods and data, going all the way back to 1929. Visit this website (http://openstaxcollege.org/l/beafaq) to read FAQs on the BEA site. You can even email your own questions! When thinking about the demand for domestically produced goods in a global economy, it is important to count spending on exports—domestically produced goods that a country sells abroad. Similarly, we must also subtract spending on imports—goods that a country produces in other countries that residents of this country purchase. The GDP net export component is equal to the dollar value of exports (X) minus the dollar value of imports (M), (X – M). We call the gap between exports and
|
imports the trade balance. If a country’s exports are larger than its imports, then a country has a trade surplus. In the United States, exports typically exceeded imports in the 1960s and 1970s, as Figure 6.4(b) shows. Since the early 1980s, imports have typically exceeded exports, and so the United States has experienced a trade This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 139 deficit in most years. The trade deficit grew quite large in the late 1990s and in the mid-2000s. Figure 6.4 (b) also shows that imports and exports have both risen substantially in recent decades, even after the declines during the Great Recession between 2008 and 2009. As we noted before, if exports and imports are equal, foreign trade has no effect on total GDP. However, even if exports and imports are balanced overall, foreign trade might still have powerful effects on particular industries and workers by causing nations to shift workers and physical capital investment toward one industry rather than another. Based on these four components of demand, we can measure GDP as: GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government + Trade balance GDP = C + I + G + (X – M) Understanding how to measure GDP is important for analyzing connections in the macro economy and for thinking about macroeconomic policy tools. GDP Measured by What is Produced Everything that we purchase somebody must first produce. Table 6.2 breaks down what a country produces into five categories: durable goods, nondurable goods, services, structures, and the change in inventories. Before going into detail about these categories, notice that total GDP measured according to what is produced is exactly the same as the GDP measured by looking at the five components of demand. Figure 6.5 provides a visual representation of this information. Components of GDP on the Supply Side (in trillions of dollars) Percentage of Total Goods Durable goods $3.0 Nondurable goods $2.5 Services Structures Change in inventories $11.6 $1.5 $0.0 Total GDP $18.6 16.1% 13.4% 62.4% 8.1% 0.0% 100% Table 6.2 Components of U.S. GDP on the Production Side, 2016 (Source: http://bea.gov/iTable/ index_nipa.cfm) 140 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective Figure 6
|
.5 Percentage of Components of GDP on the Production Side Services make up over 60 percent of the production side components of GDP in the United States. Since every market transaction must have both a buyer and a seller, GDP must be the same whether measured by what is demanded or by what is produced. Figure 6.6 shows these components of what is produced, expressed as a percentage of GDP, since 1960. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 141 Figure 6.6 Types of Production Services are the largest single component of total supply, representing over 60 percent of GDP, up from about 45 perent in the early 1960s. Durable and nondurable goods constitute the manufacturing sector, and they have declined from 45 percent of GDP in 1960 to about 30 percent in 2016. Nondurable goods used to be larger than durable goods, but in recent years, nondurable goods have been dropping to below the share of durable goods, which is less than 20% of GDP. Structures hover around 10% of GDP. We do not show here the change in inventories, the final component of aggregate supply. It is typically less than 1% of GDP. In thinking about what is produced in the economy, many non-economists immediately focus on solid, long-lasting goods, like cars and computers. By far the largest part of GDP, however, is services. Moreover, services have been a growing share of GDP over time. A detailed breakdown of the leading service industries would include healthcare, education, and legal and financial services. It has been decades since most of the U.S. economy involved making solid objects. Instead, the most common jobs in a modern economy involve a worker looking at pieces of paper or a computer screen; meeting with co-workers, customers, or suppliers; or making phone calls. Even within the overall category of goods, long-lasting durable goods like cars and refrigerators are about the same share of the economy as short-lived nondurable goods like food and clothing. The category of structures includes everything from homes, to office buildings, shopping malls, and factories. Inventories is a small category that refers to the goods that one business has produced but has not yet sold to consumers, and are still sitting in warehouses and on shelves. The amount of inventories sitting on shelves tends to decline if business is better than expected, or to rise if business is worse than expected.
|
Another Way to Measure GDP: The National Income Approach GDP is a measure of what is produced in a nation. The primary way GDP is estimated is with the Expenditure Approach we discussed above, but there is another way. Everything a firm produces, when sold, becomes revenues to the firm. Businesses use revenues to pay their bills: Wages and salaries for labor, interest and dividends for capital, rent for land, profit to the entrepreneur, etc. So adding up all the income produced in a year provides a second way of measuring GDP. This is why the terms GDP and national income are sometimes used interchangeably. The total 142 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective value of a nation’s output is equal to the total value of a nation’s income. The Problem of Double Counting We define GDP as the current value of all final goods and services produced in a nation in a year. What are final goods? They are goods at the furthest stage of production at the end of a year. Statisticians who calculate GDP must avoid the mistake of double counting, in which they count output more than once as it travels through the production stages. For example, imagine what would happen if government statisticians first counted the value of tires that a tire manufacturer produces, and then counted the value of a new truck that an automaker sold that contains those tires. In this example, the statisticians would have counted the value of the tires twice-because the truck's price includes the value of the tires. To avoid this problem, which would overstate the size of the economy considerably, government statisticians count just the value of final goods and services in the chain of production that are sold for consumption, investment, government, and trade purposes. Statisticians exclude intermediate intermediate goods, which are goods that go into producing other goods, from GDP calculations. From the example above, they will only count the Ford truck's value. The value of what businesses provide to other businesses is captured in the final products at the end of the production chain. The concept of GDP is fairly straightforward: it is just the dollar value of all final goods and services produced in the economy in a year. In our decentralized, market-oriented economy, actually calculating the more than $18 trilliondollar U.S. GDP—along with how it is changing every few months—is a full-time job for a brigade of government statisticians. What is Counted in GDP What is not included in GDP Consumption Business investment Intermediate goods Transfer payments and non-
|
market activities Government spending on goods and services Used goods Net exports Illegal goods Table 6.3 Counting GDP Notice the items that are not counted into GDP, as Table 6.3 outlines. The sales of used goods are not included because they were produced in a previous year and are part of that year’s GDP. The entire underground economy of services paid “under the table” and illegal sales should be counted, but is not, because it is impossible to track these sales. In Friedrich Schneider's recent study of shadow economies, he estimated the underground economy in the United States to be 6.6% of GDP, or close to $2 trillion dollars in 2013 alone. Transfer payments, such as payment by the government to individuals, are not included, because they do not represent production. Also, production of some goods—such as home production as when you make your breakfast—is not counted because these goods are not sold in the marketplace. this website (http://openstaxcollege.org/l/undergroundecon) to read about Visit Economy.” the “New Underground This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 143 Other Ways to Measure the Economy Besides GDP, there are several different but closely related ways of measuring the size of the economy. We mentioned above that we can think of GDP as total production and as total purchases. We can also think of it as total income since anything one produces and sells yields income. One of the closest cousins of GDP is the gross national product (GNP). GDP includes only what country produces within its borders. GNP adds what domestic businesses and labor abroad produces, and subtracts any payments that foreign labor and businesses located in the United States send home to other countries. In other words, GNP is based more on what a country's citizens and firms produce, wherever they are located, and GDP is based on what happens within a certain county's geographic boundaries. For the United States, the gap between GDP and GNP is relatively small; in recent years, only about 0.2%. For small nations, which may have a substantial share of their population working abroad and sending money back home, the difference can be substantial. We calculate net national product (NNP) by taking GNP and then subtracting the value of how much physical capital is worn out, or reduced in value because of aging, over the course of a year.
|
The process by which capital ages and loses value is called depreciation. We can further subdivide NNP into national income, which includes all income to businesses and individuals, and personal income, which includes only income to people. For practical purposes, it is not vital to memorize these definitions. However, it is important to be aware that these differences exist and to know what statistic you are examining, so that you do not accidentally compare, say, GDP in one year or for one country with GNP or NNP in another year or another country. To get an idea of how these calculations work, follow the steps in the following Work It Out feature. Calculating GDP, Net Exports, and NNP Based on the information in Table 6.4: a. What is the value of GDP? b. What is the value of net exports? c. What is the value of NNP? Government purchases Depreciation Consumption Business Investment Exports Table 6.4 $120 billion $40 billion $400 billion $60 billion $100 billion 144 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective Imports Income receipts from rest of the world Income payments to rest of the world Table 6.4 $120 billion $10 billion $8 billion Step 1. To calculate GDP use the following formula: GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government spending + (Exports – Imports) = C + I + G + (X – M) = $400 + $60 + $120 + ($100 – $120) = $560 billion Step 2. To calculate net exports, subtract imports from exports. Net exports = X – M = $100 – $120 = –$20 billion Step 3. To calculate NNP, use the following formula: NNP = GDP + Income receipts from the rest of the world – Income payments to the rest of the world – Depreciation = $560 + $10 – $8 – $40 = $522 billion 6.2 | Adjusting Nominal Values to Real Values By the end of this section, you will be able to: • Contrast nominal GDP and real GDP • Explain GDP deflator • Calculate real GDP based on nominal GDP values When examining economic statistics, there is a crucial distinction worth emphasizing. The distinction is between nominal and real measurements, which refer to whether or not inflation has distorted a given statistic. Looking at economic statistics without considering inflation is like looking through a pair of binoculars and trying to guess how close something is: unless you know how strong the lenses are, you cannot guess the
|
distance very accurately. Similarly, if you do not know the inflation rate, it is difficult to figure out if a rise in GDP is due mainly to a rise in the overall level of prices or to a rise in quantities of goods produced. The nominal value of any economic statistic means that we measure the statistic in terms of actual prices that exist at the time. The real value refers to the same statistic after it has been adjusted for inflation. Generally, it is the real value that is more important. Converting Nominal to Real GDP Table 6.5 shows U.S. GDP at five-year intervals since 1960 in nominal dollars; that is, GDP measured using the actual market prices prevailing in each stated year. Figure 6.7 also reflects this data in a graph. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 145 Year Nominal GDP (billions of dollars) GDP Deflator (2005 = 100) 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 543.3 743.7 1,075.9 1,688.9 2,862.5 4,346.7 5,979.6 7,664.0 10,289.7 13,095.4 14,958.3 19.0 20.3 24.8 34.1 48.3 62.3 72.7 81.7 89.0 100.0 110.0 Table 6.5 U.S. Nominal GDP and the GDP Deflator (Source: www.bea.gov) Figure 6.7 U.S. Nominal GDP, 1960–2010 Nominal GDP values have risen exponentially from 1960 through 2010, according to the BEA. If an unwary analyst compared nominal GDP in 1960 to nominal GDP in 2010, it might appear that national output had risen by a factor of more than twenty-seven over this time (that is, GDP of $14,958 billion in 2010 divided by GDP of $543 billion in 1960 = 27.5). This conclusion would be highly misleading. Recall that we define nominal GDP as the quantity of every good or service produced multiplied by the price at which it was sold, summed up for all goods and services. In order to see how much production has actually increased, we need to extract the effects of higher prices on nominal GDP. We can easily accomplish this using the GDP deflator. The GDP
|
deflator is a price index measuring the average prices of all goods and services included in the economy. We explore price indices in detail and how we compute them in Inflation, but this definition will do in the context of this chapter. Table 6.5 provides the GDP deflator data and Figure 6.8 shows it graphically. 146 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective Figure 6.8 U.S. GDP Deflator, 1960–2010 Much like nominal GDP, the GDP deflator has risen exponentially from 1960 through 2010. (Source: BEA) Figure 6.8 shows that the price level has risen dramatically since 1960. The price level in 2010 was almost six times higher than in 1960 (the deflator for 2010 was 110 versus a level of 19 in 1960). Clearly, much of the growth in nominal GDP was due to inflation, not an actual change in the quantity of goods and services produced, in other words, not in real GDP. Recall that nominal GDP can rise for two reasons: an increase in output, and/or an increase in prices. What is needed is to extract the increase in prices from nominal GDP so as to measure only changes in output. After all, the dollars used to measure nominal GDP in 1960 are worth more than the inflated dollars of 1990—and the price index tells exactly how much more. This adjustment is easy to do if you understand that nominal measurements are in value terms, where Value = Price × Quantity or Nominal GDP = GDP Defla or × Real GDP Let’s look at an example at the micro level. Suppose the t-shirt company, Coolshirts, sells 10 t-shirts at a price of $9 each. Then, Coolshirt's nominal revenue from sales = Price × Quantity = $9 × 10 = $90 Coolshirt's real income = Nominal revenue Price = $90 $9 = 10 In other words, when we compute “real” measurements we are trying to obtain actual quantities, in this case, 10 tshirts. With GDP, it is just a tiny bit more complicated. We start with the same formula as above: Real GDP = Nominal GDP Price Index For reasons that we will explain in more detail below, mathematically, a price index is a two-digit decimal number like 1.00 or 0.85 or 1.25. Because some people have trouble working with decimals, when the price index is published, it has traditionally been multiplied by 100 to get integer numbers like 100, 85, or 125.
|
What this means is that when we “deflate” nominal figures to get real figures (by dividing the nominal by the price index). We also need to remember to divide the published price index by 100 to make the math work. Thus, the formula becomes: This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 147 Now read the following Work It Out feature for more practice calculating real GDP. Real GDP = Nominal GDP Price Index / 100 148 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective Computing GDP It is possible to use the data in Table 6.5 to compute real GDP. Step 1. Look at Table 6.5, to see that, in 1960, nominal GDP was $543.3 billion and the price index (GDP deflator) was 19.0. Step 2. To calculate the real GDP in 1960, use the formula: Real GDP = Nominal GDP Price Index / 100 = $543.3 billion 19 / 100 = $2,859.5 billion We’ll do this in two parts to make it clear. First adjust the price index: 19 divided by 100 = 0.19. Then divide into nominal GDP: $543.3 billion / 0.19 = $2,859.5 billion. Step 3. Use the same formula to calculate the real GDP in 1965. Real GDP = Nominal GDP Price Index / 100 = $743.7 billion 20.3 / 100 = $3,663.5 billion Step 4. Continue using this formula to calculate all of the real GDP values from 1960 through 2010. The calculations and the results are in Table 6.6. Year Nominal GDP (billions of dollars) GDP Deflator (2005 = 100) Calculations Real GDP (billions of 2005 dollars) 1960 543.3 1965 743.7 1970 1075.9 1975 1688.9 1980 2862.5 1985 4346.7 1990 5979.6 19.0 20.3 24.8 34.1 48.3 62.3 72.7 543.3 / (19.0/100) 743.7 / (20.3/100) 1,075.9 / (24.8/100) 1,688.9 / (34.1/100) 2,862.5 / (48.3/100) 4,346.7
|
/ (62.3/100) 5,979.6 / (72.7/100) 2859.5 3663.5 4338.3 4952.8 5926.5 6977.0 8225.0 Table 6.6 Converting Nominal to Real GDP (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, www.bea.gov) This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 149 Year Nominal GDP (billions of dollars) GDP Deflator (2005 = 100) Calculations Real GDP (billions of 2005 dollars) 1995 7664.0 2000 10289.7 2005 13095.4 2010 14958.3 82.0 89.0 100.0 110.0 7,664 / (82.0/100) 10,289.7 / (89.0/100) 13,095.4 / (100.0/100) 14,958.3 / (110.0/100) 9346.3 11561.5 13095.4 13598.5 Table 6.6 Converting Nominal to Real GDP (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, www.bea.gov) There are a couple things to notice here. Whenever you compute a real statistic, one year (or period) plays a special role. It is called the base year (or base period). The base year is the year whose prices we use to compute the real statistic. When we calculate real GDP, for example, we take the quantities of goods and services produced in each year (for example, 1960 or 1973) and multiply them by their prices in the base year (in this case, 2005), so we get a measure of GDP that uses prices that do not change from year to year. That is why real GDP is labeled “Constant Dollars” or, in this example, “2005 Dollars,” which means that real GDP is constructed using prices that existed in 2005. While the example here uses 2005 as the base year, more generally, you can use any year as the base year. The formula is: Rearranging the formula and using the data from 2005: GDP defla or = Nominal GDP Real GDP × 100 Real GDP = Nominal GDP Price Index / 100 = $13,095.4 billion 100 / 100 = $13,095.4 billion Comparing real
|
GDP and nominal GDP for 2005, you see they are the same. This is no accident. It is because we have chosen 2005 as the “base year” in this example. Since the price index in the base year always has a value of 100 (by definition), nominal and real GDP are always the same in the base year. Look at the data for 2010. Real GDP = Nominal GDP Price Index / 100 = $14,958.3 billion 110 / 100 = $13,598.5 billion Use this data to make another observation: As long as inflation is positive, meaning prices increase on average from year to year, real GDP should be less than nominal GDP in any year after the base year. The reason for this should be clear: The value of nominal GDP is “inflated” by inflation. Similarly, as long as inflation is positive, real GDP should be greater than nominal GDP in any year before the base year. Figure 6.9 shows the U.S. nominal and real GDP since 1960. Because 2005 is the base year, the nominal and real values are exactly the same in that year. However, over time, the rise in nominal GDP looks much larger than the rise in real GDP (that is, the nominal GDP line rises more steeply than the real GDP line), because the presence of 150 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective inflation, especially in the 1970s exaggerates the rise in nominal GDP. Figure 6.9 U.S. Nominal and Real GDP, 1960–2012 The red line measures U.S. GDP in nominal dollars. The black line measures U.S. GDP in real dollars, where all dollar values are converted to 2005 dollars. Since we express real GDP in 2005 dollars, the two lines cross in 2005. However, real GDP will appear higher than nominal GDP in the years before 2005, because dollars were worth less in 2005 than in previous years. Conversely, real GDP will appear lower in the years after 2005, because dollars were worth more in 2005 than in later years. Let’s return to the question that we posed originally: How much did GDP increase in real terms? What was the real GDP growth rate from 1960 to 2010? To find the real growth rate, we apply the formula for percentage change: 2010 real GDP – 1960 real GDP 1960 real GDP × 100 = % change 13,598.5 – 2,859.5 2,859.5 × 100 = 376% In other words,
|
the U.S. economy has increased real production of goods and services by nearly a factor of four since 1960. Of course, that understates the material improvement since it fails to capture improvements in the quality of products and the invention of new products. There is a quicker way to answer this question approximately, using another math trick. Because: Nominal % change in Nominal = Price × Quantity = % change in Price + % change in Quantity OR % change in Quantity = % change in Nominal – % change in Price Therefore, real GDP growth rate (% change in quantity) equals the growth rate in nominal GDP (% change in value) minus the inflation rate (% change in price). Note that using this equation provides an approximation for small changes in the levels. For more accurate measures, one should use the first formula. 6.3 | Tracking Real GDP over Time By the end of this section, you will be able to: • Explain recessions, depressions, peaks, and troughs • Evaluate the importance of tracking real GDP over time This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 151 When news reports indicate that “the economy grew 1.2% in the first quarter,” the reports are referring to the percentage change in real GDP. By convention, governments report GDP growth is at an annualized rate: Whatever the calculated growth in real GDP was for the quarter, we multiply it by four when it is reported as if the economy were growing at that rate for a full year. Figure 6.10 U.S. GDP, 1900–2016 Real GDP in the United States in 2016 (in 2009 dollars) was about $16.7 trillion. After adjusting to remove the effects of inflation, this represents a roughly 20-fold increase in the economy’s production of goods and services since the start of the twentieth century. (Source: bea.gov) Figure 6.10 shows the pattern of U.S. real GDP since 1900. Short term declines have regularly interrupted the generally upward long-term path of GDP. We call a significant decline in real GDP a recession. We call an especially lengthy and deep recession a depression. The severe drop in GDP that occurred during the 1930s Great Depression is clearly visible in the figure, as is the 2008–2009 Great Recession. Real GDP is important because it is highly correlated with other measures of economic activity, like employment and unemployment. When real
|
GDP rises, so does employment. The most significant human problem associated with recessions (and their larger, uglier cousins, depressions) is that a slowdown in production means that firms need to lay off or fire some of their workers. Losing a job imposes painful financial and personal costs on workers, and often on their extended families as well. In addition, even those who keep their jobs are likely to find that wage raises are scanty at best—or their employers may ask them to take pay cuts. Table 6.7 lists the pattern of recessions and expansions in the U.S. economy since 1900. We call the highest point of the economy, before the recession begins, the peak. Conversely, the lowest point of a recession, before a recovery begins, is the trough. Thus, a recession lasts from peak to trough, and an economic upswing runs from trough to peak. We call the economy's movement from peak to trough and trough to peak the business cycle. It is intriguing to notice that the three longest trough-to-peak expansions of the twentieth century have happened since 1960. The most recent recession started in December 2007 and ended formally in June 2009. This was the most severe recession since the 1930s Great Depression. The ongoing expansion since the June 2009 trough will also be quite long, comparatively, having already reached 90 months at the end of 2016. Trough Peak Months of Contraction Months of Expansion December 1900 September 1902 August 1904 May 1907 June 1908 January 1910 January 1912 January 1913 December 1914 August 1918 March 1919 January 1920 July 1921 July 1924 May 1923 October 1926 18 23 13 24 23 7 18 14 21 33 19 12 44 10 22 27 Table 6.7 U.S. Business Cycles since 1900 (Source: http://www.nber.org/cycles/main.html) 152 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective Trough Peak Months of Contraction Months of Expansion November 1927 August 1929 March 1933 May 1937 June 1938 February 1945 October 1945 November 1948 October 1949 July 1953 May 1954 April 1958 August 1957 April 1960 February 1961 December 1969 November 1970 November 1973 March 1975 January 1980 July 1980 July 1981 November 1982 July 1990 March 1991 March 2001 November 2001 December 2007 23 43 13 8 11 10 8 10 11 16 6 16 8 8 21 50 80 37 45 39 24 106 36 58 12 92 120 73 Table 6.7 U.S. Business Cycles since 1900 (Source: http://www.nber.org/cycles/main.html) A private think tank, the National Bureau of Economic
|
Research (NBER), tracks business cycles for the U.S. economy. However, the effects of a severe recession often linger after the official ending date assigned by the NBER. 6.4 | Comparing GDP among Countries By the end of this section, you will be able to: • Explain how we can use GDP to compare the economic welfare of different nations • Calculate the conversion of GDP to a common currency by using exchange rates • Calculate GDP per capita using population data It is common to use GDP as a measure of economic welfare or standard of living in a nation. When comparing the GDP of different nations for this purpose, two issues immediately arise. First, we measure a country's GDP in its own currency: the United States uses the U.S. dollar; Canada, the Canadian dollar; most countries of Western Europe, the euro; Japan, the yen; Mexico, the peso; and so on. Thus, comparing GDP between two countries requires converting to a common currency. A second issue is that countries have very different numbers of people. For instance, the United States has a much larger economy than Mexico or Canada, but it also has almost three times as many people as Mexico and nine times as many people as Canada. Thus, if we are trying to compare standards of living across countries, we need to divide GDP by population. Converting Currencies with Exchange Rates To compare the GDP of countries with different currencies, it is necessary to convert to a “common denominator” using an exchange rate, which is the value of one currency in terms of another currency. We express exchange rates either as the units of country A’s currency that need to be traded for a single unit of country B’s currency (for example, Japanese yen per British pound), or as the inverse (for example, British pounds per Japanese yen). We can use two types of exchange rates for this purpose, market exchange rates and purchasing power parity (PPP) This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 153 equivalent exchange rates. Market exchange rates vary on a day-to-day basis depending on supply and demand in foreign exchange markets. PPP-equivalent exchange rates provide a longer run measure of the exchange rate. For this reason, economists typically use PPP-equivalent exchange rates for GDP cross country comparisons. We will discuss exchange rates in more detail in Exchange Rates and International
|
Capital Flows. The following Work It Out feature explains how to convert GDP to a common currency. Converting GDP to a Common Currency Using the exchange rate to convert GDP from one currency to another is straightforward. Say that the task is to compare Brazil’s GDP in 2013 of 4.8 trillion reals with the U.S. GDP of $16.6 trillion for the same year. Step 1. Determine the exchange rate for the specified year. In 2013, the exchange rate was 2.230 reals = $1. (These numbers are realistic, but rounded off to simplify the calculations.) Step 2. Convert Brazil’s GDP into U.S. dollars: Brazil's GDP in $ U.S. = Brazil's GDP in reals Exchange rate (reals/$ U.S.) = 4.8 trillion reals 2.230 reals per $ U.S. = $2.2 trillion Step 3. Compare this value to the GDP in the United States in the same year. The U.S. GDP was $16.6 trillion in 2013, which is nearly eight times that of GDP in Brazil in 2012. Step 4. View Table 6.8 which shows the size of and variety of GDPs of different countries in 2013, all expressed in U.S. dollars. We calculate each using the process that we explained above. Country GDP in Billions of Domestic Currency Domestic Currency/U.S. Dollars (PPP Equivalent) GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars) Brazil 4,844.80 reals 2.157 Canada 1,881.20 dollars 1.030 China Egypt 58,667.30 yuan 6.196 1,753.30 pounds 6.460 Germany 2,737.60 euros 0.753 India 113,550.70 rupees 60.502 Japan 478,075.30 yen 97.596 Mexico 16,104.40 pesos 12.772 2,246.00 1,826.80 9,469.10 271.40 3,636.00 1,876.80 4,898.50 1,260.90 South Korea United Kingdom 1,428,294.70 won 1,094.925 1,304.467 1,612.80 pounds 0.639 2,523.20 Table 6.8 Comparing GDPs Across Countries, 2013 (Source: http://www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/we
|
o/2013/01/weodata/index.aspx) 154 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective GDP in Billions of Domestic Currency Domestic Currency/U.S. Dollars (PPP Equivalent) GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars) 16,768.10 dollars 1.000 16,768.10 Country United States Table 6.8 Comparing GDPs Across Countries, 2013 (Source: http://www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/weodata/index.aspx) GDP Per Capita The U.S. economy has the largest GDP in the world, by a considerable amount. The United States is also a populous country; in fact, it is the third largest country by population in the world, although well behind China and India. Is the U.S. economy larger than other countries just because the United States has more people than most other countries, or because the U.S. economy is actually larger on a per-person basis? We can answer this question by calculating a country’s GDP per capita; that is, the GDP divided by the population. GDP per capita = GDP/population The second column of Table 6.9 lists the GDP of the same selection of countries that appeared in the previous Tracking Real GDP over Time and Table 6.8, showing their GDP as converted into U.S. dollars (which is the same as the last column of the previous table). The third column gives the population for each country. The fourth column lists the GDP per capita. We obtain GDP per capita in two steps: First, by multiplying column two (GDP, in billions of dollars) by 1000 so it has the same units as column three (Population, in millions). Then divide the result (GDP in millions of dollars) by column three (Population, in millions). Country GDP (in billions of U.S. dollars) Population (in millions) Per Capita GDP (in U.S. dollars) Brazil 2,246.00 Canada 1,826.80 China Egypt 9,469.10 271.40 Germany 3,636.00 India Japan Mexico 1,876.80 4,898.50 1,260.90 South Korea 1,304.47 United Kingdom United States 2,523.20 16,768.10 199.20 35.10 1,360.80 83.70 80.80 1,243.30 127.3
|
118.40 50.20 64.10 316.30 11,275.10 52,045.58 6,958.48 3,242.90 44,999.50 1,509.50 38,479.97 10,649.90 25,985.46 39,363.50 53,013.28 Table 6.9 GDP Per Capita, 2013 (Source: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2013/01/weodata/ index.aspx) This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 155 Notice that the ranking by GDP is different from the ranking by GDP per capita. India has a somewhat larger GDP than Germany, but on a per capita basis, Germany has more than 10 times India’s standard of living. Will China soon have a better standard of living than the U.S.? Read the following Clear It Up feature to find out. Is China going to surpass the United States in terms of standard of living? As Table 6.9 shows, China has the second largest GDP of the countries: $9.5 trillion compared to the United States’ $16.8 trillion. Perhaps it will surpass the United States, but probably not any time soon. China has a much larger population so that in per capita terms, its GDP is less than one fifth that of the United States ($6,958.48 compared to $53,013). The Chinese people are still quite poor relative to the United States and other developed countries. One caveat: For reasons we will discuss shortly, GDP per capita can give us only a rough idea of the differences in living standards across countries. The world's high-income nations—including the United States, Canada, the Western European countries, and Japan—typically have GDP per capita in the range of $20,000 to $50,000. Middle-income countries, which include much of Latin America, Eastern Europe, and some countries in East Asia, have GDP per capita in the range of $6,000 to $12,000. The world's low-income countries, many of them located in Africa and Asia, often have GDP per capita of less than $2,000 per year. 6.5 | How Well GDP Measures the Well-Being of Society By the end of this section, you will be able to: • Discuss
|
how productivity influences the standard of living • Explain the limitations of GDP as a measure of the standard of living • Analyze the relationship between GDP data and fluctuations in the standard of living The level of GDP per capita clearly captures some of what we mean by the phrase “standard of living.” Most of the migration in the world, for example, involves people who are moving from countries with relatively low GDP per capita to countries with relatively high GDP per capita. “Standard of living” is a broader term than GDP. While GDP focuses on production that is bought and sold in markets, standard of living includes all elements that affect people’s well-being, whether they are bought and sold in the market or not. To illuminate the difference between GDP and standard of living, it is useful to spell out some things that GDP does not cover that are clearly relevant to standard of living. Limitations of GDP as a Measure of the Standard of Living While GDP includes spending on recreation and travel, it does not cover leisure time. Clearly, however, there is a substantial difference between an economy that is large because people work long hours, and an economy that is just as large because people are more productive with their time so they do not have to work as many hours. The GDP per capita of the U.S. economy is larger than the GDP per capita of Germany, as Table 6.9 showed, but does that prove that the standard of living in the United States is higher? Not necessarily, since it is also true that the average U.S. worker works several hundred hours more per year more than the average German worker. Calculating GDP does not account for the German worker’s extra vacation weeks. While GDP includes what a country spends on environmental protection, healthcare, and education, it does not include actual levels of environmental cleanliness, health, and learning. GDP includes the cost of buying pollutioncontrol equipment, but it does not address whether the air and water are actually cleaner or dirtier. GDP includes spending on medical care, but does not address whether life expectancy or infant mortality have risen or fallen. Similarly, it counts spending on education, but does not address directly how much of the population can read, write, 156 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective or do basic mathematics. GDP includes production that is exchanged in the market, but it does not cover production that is not exchanged in the market. For example, hiring someone to mow your lawn or clean your house is part of GDP, but doing these
|
tasks yourself is not part of GDP. One remarkable change in the U.S. economy in recent decades is the growth in women’s participation in the labor force. As of 1970, only about 42% of women participated in the paid labor force. By the second decade of the 2000s, nearly 60% of women participated in the paid labor force according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As women are now in the labor force, many of the services they used to produce in the non-market economy like food preparation and child care have shifted to some extent into the market economy, which makes the GDP appear larger even if people actually are not consuming more services. GDP has nothing to say about the level of inequality in society. GDP per capita is only an average. When GDP per capita rises by 5%, it could mean that GDP for everyone in the society has risen by 5%, or that GDP of some groups has risen by more while that of others has risen by less—or even declined. GDP also has nothing in particular to say about the amount of variety available. If a family buys 100 loaves of bread in a year, GDP does not care whether they are all white bread, or whether the family can choose from wheat, rye, pumpernickel, and many others—it just looks at the total amount the family spends on bread. Likewise, GDP has nothing much to say about what technology and products are available. The standard of living in, for example, 1950 or 1900 was not affected only by how much money people had—it was also affected by what they could buy. No matter how much money you had in 1950, you could not buy an iPhone or a personal computer. In certain cases, it is not clear that a rise in GDP is even a good thing. If a city is wrecked by a hurricane, and then experiences a surge of rebuilding construction activity, it would be peculiar to claim that the hurricane was therefore economically beneficial. If people are led by a rising fear of crime, to pay for installing bars and burglar alarms on all their windows, it is hard to believe that this increase in GDP has made them better off. Similarly, some people would argue that sales of certain goods, like pornography or extremely violent movies, do not represent a gain to society’s standard of living. Does a Rise in GDP Overstate or Understate the Rise in the Standard of Living? The fact that GDP per capita does not fully capture the broader idea of standard of living has led to a concern that
|
the increases in GDP over time are illusory. It is theoretically possible that while GDP is rising, the standard of living could be falling if human health, environmental cleanliness, and other factors that are not included in GDP are worsening. Fortunately, this fear appears to be overstated. In some ways, the rise in GDP understates the actual rise in the standard of living. For example, the typical workweek for a U.S. worker has fallen over the last century from about 60 hours per week to less than 40 hours per week. Life expectancy and health have risen dramatically, and so has the average level of education. Since 1970, the air and water in the United States have generally been getting cleaner. Companies have developed new technologies for entertainment, travel, information, and health. A much wider variety of basic products like food and clothing is available today than several decades ago. Because GDP does not capture leisure, health, a cleaner environment, the possibilities that new technology creates, or an increase in variety, the actual rise in the standard of living for Americans in recent decades has exceeded the rise in GDP. On the other side, crime rates, traffic congestion levels, and income inequality are higher in the United States now than they were in the 1960s. Moreover, a substantial number of services that women primarily provided in the nonmarket economy are now part of the market economy that GDP counts. By ignoring these factors, GDP would tend to overstate the true rise in the standard of living. this website (http://openstaxcollege.org/l/amdreamvalue) to read about Visit standards of living. the American Dream and This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 157 GDP is Rough, but Useful A high level of GDP should not be the only goal of macroeconomic policy, or government policy more broadly. Even though GDP does not measure the broader standard of living with any precision, it does measure production well and it does indicate when a country is materially better or worse off in terms of jobs and incomes. In most countries, a significantly higher GDP per capita occurs hand in hand with other improvements in everyday life along many dimensions, like education, health, and environmental protection. No single number can capture all the elements of a term as broad as “standard of living.” Nonetheless, GDP per capita is a reasonable, rough-and-ready measure of the standard of living. How
|
is the Economy Doing? How Does One Tell? To determine the state of the economy, one needs to examine economic indicators, such as GDP. To calculate GDP is quite an undertaking. It is the broadest measure of a nation’s economic activity and we owe a debt to Simon Kuznets, the creator of the measurement, for that. The sheer size of the U.S. economy as measured by GDP is huge—as of the fourth quarter of 2016, $18.9 trillion worth of goods and services were produced annually. Real GDP informed us that the 2008–2009 recession was severe and that the recovery from that recession has been slow, but the economy is improving. GDP per capita gives a rough estimate of a nation’s standard of living. This chapter is the building block for other chapters that explore more economic indicators such as unemployment, inflation, or interest rates, and perhaps more importantly, will explain how they are related and what causes them to rise or fall. 158 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective KEY TERMS business cycle the economy's relatively short-term movement in and out of recession depreciation the process by which capital ages over time and therefore loses its value depression an especially lengthy and deep decline in output double counting a potential mistake to avoid in measuring GDP, in which output is counted more than once as it travels through the stages of production durable good long-lasting good like a car or a refrigerator exchange rate the price of one currency in terms of another currency final good and service output used directly for consumption, investment, government, and trade purposes; contrast with “intermediate good” GDP per capita GDP divided by the population gross domestic product (GDP) the value of the output of all goods and services produced within a country in a year gross national product (GNP) business abroad in a year includes what is produced domestically and what is produced by domestic labor and intermediate good output provided to other businesses at an intermediate stage of production, not for final users; contrast with “final good and service” inventory good that has been produced, but not yet been sold national income includes all income earned: wages, profits, rent, and profit income net national product (NNP) GDP minus depreciation nominal value the economic statistic actually announced at that time, not adjusted for inflation; contrast with real value nondurable good short-lived good like food and clothing peak during the business cycle, the highest point of output before a recession begins real value an economic statistic after it has been adjusted for inflation; contrast
|
with nominal value recession a significant decline in national output service product which is intangible (in contrast to goods) such as entertainment, healthcare, or education standard of living all elements that affect people’s happiness, whether people buy or sell these elements in the market or not structure building used as residence, factory, office building, retail store, or for other purposes trade balance gap between exports and imports trade deficit exists when a nation's imports exceed its exports and it calculates them as imports –exports trade surplus exists when a nation's exports exceed its imports and it calculates them as exports – imports trough during the business cycle, the lowest point of output in a recession, before a recovery begins This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 159 KEY CONCEPTS AND SUMMARY 6.1 Measuring the Size of the Economy: Gross Domestic Product Economists generally express the size of a nation’s economy as its gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the value of the output of all goods and services produced within the country in a year. Economists measure GDP by taking the quantities of all goods and services produced, multiplying them by their prices, and summing the total. Since GDP measures what is bought and sold in the economy, we can measure it either by the sum of what is purchased in the economy or what is produced. We can divide demand into consumption, investment, government, exports, and imports. We can divide what is produced in the economy into durable goods, nondurable goods, services, structures, and inventories. To avoid double counting, GDP counts only final output of goods and services, not the production of intermediate goods or the value of labor in the chain of production. 6.2 Adjusting Nominal Values to Real Values The nominal value of an economic statistic is the commonly announced value. The real value is the value after adjusting for changes in inflation. To convert nominal economic data from several different years into real, inflationadjusted data, the starting point is to choose a base year arbitrarily and then use a price index to convert the measurements so that economists measure them in the money prevailing in the base year. 6.3 Tracking Real GDP over Time Over the long term, U.S. real GDP have increased dramatically. At the same time, GDP has not increased the same amount each year. The speeding up and slowing down of GDP growth represents the business cycle. When GDP declines significantly
|
, a recession occurs. A longer and deeper decline is a depression. Recessions begin at the business cycle's peak and end at the trough. 6.4 Comparing GDP among Countries Since we measure GDP in a country’s currency, in order to compare different countries’ GDPs, we need to convert them to a common currency. One way to do that is with the exchange rate, which is the price of one country’s currency in terms of another. Once we express GDPs in a common currency, we can compare each country’s GDP per capita by dividing GDP by population. Countries with large populations often have large GDPs, but GDP alone can be a misleading indicator of a nation's wealth. A better measure is GDP per capita. 6.5 How Well GDP Measures the Well-Being of Society GDP is an indicator of a society’s standard of living, but it is only a rough indicator. GDP does not directly take account of leisure, environmental quality, levels of health and education, activities conducted outside the market, changes in inequality of income, increases in variety, increases in technology, or the (positive or negative) value that society may place on certain types of output. SELF-CHECK QUESTIONS 1. Country A has export sales of $20 billion, government purchases of $1,000 billion, business investment is $50 billion, imports are $40 billion, and consumption spending is $2,000 billion. What is the dollar value of GDP? 2. Which of the following are included in GDP, and which are not? a. The cost of hospital stays b. The rise in life expectancy over time c. Child care provided by a licensed day care center d. Child care provided by a grandmother e. A used car sale f. A new car sale g. The greater variety of cheese available in supermarkets h. The iron that goes into the steel that goes into a refrigerator bought by a consumer. 160 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 3. Using data from Table 6.5 how much of the nominal GDP growth from 1980 to 1990 was real GDP and how much was inflation? 4. Without looking at Table 6.7, return to Figure 6.10. If we define a recession as a significant decline in national output, can you identify any post-1960 recessions in addition to the 2008-2009 recession? (This requires a judgment call.) 5. According to Table 6.7, how often have recessions occurred since the end of World War II
|
(1945)? 6. According to Table 6.7, how long has the average recession lasted since the end of World War II? 7. According to Table 6.7, how long has the average expansion lasted since the end of World War II? Is it possible for GDP to rise while at the same time per capita GDP is falling? Is it possible for GDP to fall while 8. per capita GDP is rising? 9. The Central African Republic has a GDP of 1,107,689 million CFA francs and a population of 4.862 million. The exchange rate is 284.681CFA francs per dollar. Calculate the GDP per capita of Central African Republic. 10. Explain briefly whether each of the following would cause GDP to overstate or understate the degree of change in the broad standard of living. a. The environment becomes dirtier b. The crime rate declines c. A greater variety of goods become available to consumers d. Infant mortality declines REVIEW QUESTIONS 11. What are the main components of measuring GDP with what is demanded? 16. How do you convert a series of nominal economic data over time to real terms? 12. What are the main components of measuring GDP with what is produced? 13. Would you usually expect GDP as measured by what is demanded to be greater than GDP measured by what is supplied, or the reverse? 14. Why must you avoid double counting when measuring GDP? 15. What is the difference between a series of economic data over time measured in nominal terms versus the same data series over time measured in real terms? CRITICAL THINKING QUESTIONS 17. What are typical GDP patterns for a high-income economy like the United States in the long run and the short run? 18. What are the two main difficulties that arise in comparing different countries's GDP? 19. List some of the reasons why economists should not consider GDP an effective measure of the standard of living in a country. 20. U.S. macroeconomic data are among the best in the world. Given what you learned in the Clear It Up "How do statisticians measure GDP?", does this surprise you, or does this simply reflect the complexity of a modern economy? 21. What does GDP not tell us about the economy? 22. Should people typically pay more attention to their real income or their nominal income? If you choose the latter, why would that make sense in today’s world? Would your answer be the same for the 1970s? 23. Why
|
do you suppose that U.S. GDP is so much higher today than 50 or 100 years ago? This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective 161 24. Why do you think that GDP does not grow at a steady rate, but rather speeds up and slows down? 26. Why might per capita GDP be only an imperfect measure of a country’s standard of living? 25. Cross country comparisons of GDP per capita typically use purchasing power parity equivalent exchange rates, which are a measure of the long run equilibrium value of an exchange rate. In fact, we used PPP equivalent exchange rates in this module. Why could using market exchange rates, which sometimes change dramatically in a short period of time, be misleading? PROBLEMS 28. Last year, a small nation with abundant forests cut down $200 worth of trees. It then turned $100 worth of trees into $150 worth of lumber. It used $100 worth of that lumber to produce $250 worth of bookshelves. Assuming the country produces no other outputs, and there are no other inputs used in producing trees, lumber, and bookshelves, what is this nation's GDP? In other words, what is the value of the final goods the nation produced including trees, lumber and bookshelves? 29. The “prime” interest rate is the rate that banks charge their best customers. Based on the nominal interest rates and inflation rates in Table 6.10, in which of the years would it have been best to be a lender? Based on the nominal interest rates and inflation rates in Table 6.10, in which of the years given would it have been best to be a borrower? Year Prime Interest Rate Inflation Rate 1970 7.9% 1974 10.8% 1978 9.1% 1981 18.9% Table 6.10 5.7% 11.0% 7.6% 10.3% 27. How might you measure a “green” GDP? 30. A mortgage loan is a loan that a person makes to purchase a house. Table 6.11 provides a list of the mortgage interest rate for several different years and the rate of inflation for each of those years. In which years would it have been better to be a person borrowing money from a bank to buy a home? In which years would it have been better to be a bank lending money? Year Mortgage Interest Rate Inflation
|
Rate 1984 12.4% 1990 10% 2001 7.0% Table 6.11 4.3% 5.4% 2.8% 31. Ethiopia has a GDP of $8 billion (measured in U.S. dollars) and a population of 55 million. Costa Rica has a GDP of $9 billion (measured in U.S. dollars) and a population of 4 million. Calculate the per capita GDP for each country and identify which one is higher. 32. In 1980, Denmark had a GDP of $70 billion (measured in U.S. dollars) and a population of 5.1 million. In 2000, Denmark had a GDP of $160 billion (measured in U.S. dollars) and a population of 5.3 million. By what percentage did Denmark’s GDP per capita rise between 1980 and 2000? 33. The Czech Republic has a GDP of 1,800 billion koruny. The exchange rate is 25 koruny/U.S. dollar. The Czech population is 20 million. What is the GDP per capita of the Czech Republic expressed in U.S. dollars? 162 Chapter 6 | The Macroeconomic Perspective This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth 163 7 | Economic Growth Figure 7.1 Average Daily Calorie Consumption Not only has the number of calories that people consume per day increased, so has the amount of food calories that people are able to afford based on their working wages. (Credit: modification of work by Lauren Manning/Flickr Creative Commons) Calories and Economic Growth On average, humans need about 2,500 calories a day to survive, depending on height, weight, and gender. The economist Brad DeLong estimates that the average worker in the early 1600s earned wages that could afford him 2,500 food calories. This worker lived in Western Europe. Two hundred years later, that same worker could afford 3,000 food calories. However, between 1800 and 1875, just a time span of just 75 years, economic growth was so rapid that western European workers could purchase 5,000 food calories a day. By 2012, a low skilled worker in an affluent Western European/North American country could afford to purchase 2.4 million food calories per day. What caused such a rapid rise in living standards between 1800 and 1875 and thereafter? Why is it that many countries, especially those in Western Europe, North
|
America, and parts of East Asia, can feed their populations more than adequately, while others cannot? We will look at these and other questions as we examine long-run economic growth. Introduction to Economic Growth In this chapter, you will learn about: • The Relatively Recent Arrival of Economic Growth • Labor Productivity and Economic Growth • Components of Economic Growth 164 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth • Economic Convergence Every country worries about economic growth. In the United States and other high-income countries, the question is whether economic growth continues to provide the same remarkable gains in our standard of living as it did during the twentieth century. Meanwhile, can middle-income countries like Brazil, Egypt, or Poland catch up to the higherincome countries, or must they remain in the second tier of per capita income? Of the world’s population of roughly 7.5 billion people, about 1.1 billion are scraping by on incomes that average less than $2 per day, not that different from the standard of living 2,000 years ago. Can the world’s poor be lifted from their fearful poverty? As the 1995 Nobel laureate in economics, Robert E. Lucas Jr., once noted: “The consequences for human welfare involved in questions like these are simply staggering: Once one starts to think about them, it is hard to think about anything else.” Dramatic improvements in a nation’s standard of living are possible. After the Korean War in the late 1950s, the Republic of Korea, often called South Korea, was one of the poorest economies in the world. Most South Koreans worked in peasant agriculture. According to the British economist Angus Maddison, who devoted life’s work to measuring GDP and population in the world economy, GDP per capita in 1990 international dollars was $854 per year. From the 1960s to the early twenty-first century, a time period well within the lifetime and memory of many adults, the South Korean economy grew rapidly. Over these four decades, GDP per capita increased by more than 6% per year. According to the World Bank, GDP for South Korea now exceeds $30,000 in nominal terms, placing it firmly among high-income countries like Italy, New Zealand, and Israel. Measured by total GDP in 2015, South Korea is the eleventh-largest economy in the world. For a nation of 50 million people, this transformation is extraordinary. South Korea is a standout example, but it is not the only case of rapid and sustained economic growth. Other East
|
Asian nations, like Thailand and Indonesia, have seen very rapid growth as well. China has grown enormously since it enacted market-oriented economic reforms around 1980. GDP per capita in high-income economies like the United States also has grown dramatically albeit over a longer time frame. Since the Civil War, the U.S. economy has transformed from a primarily rural and agricultural economy to an economy based on services, manufacturing, and technology. 7.1 | The Relatively Recent Arrival of Economic Growth By the end of this section, you will be able to: • Explain the conditions that have allowed for modern economic growth in the last two centuries • Analyze the influence of public policies on an economy's long-run economic growth Let’s begin with a brief overview of spectacular economic growth patterns around the world in the last two centuries. We commonly refer to this as the period of modern economic growth. (Later in the chapter we will discuss lower economic growth rates and some key ingredients for economic progress.) Rapid and sustained economic growth is a relatively recent experience for the human race. Before the last two centuries, although rulers, nobles, and conquerors could afford some extravagances and although economies rose above the subsistence level, the average person’s standard of living had not changed much for centuries. Progressive, powerful economic and institutional changes started to have a significant effect in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. According to the Dutch economic historian Jan Luiten van Zanden, slavery-based societies, favorable demographics, global trading routes, and standardized trading institutions that spread with different empires set the stage for the Industrial Revolution to succeed. The Industrial Revolution refers to the widespread use of power-driven machinery and the economic and social changes that resulted in the first half of the 1800s. Ingenious machines—the steam engine, the power loom, and the steam locomotive—performed tasks that otherwise would have taken vast numbers of workers to do. The Industrial Revolution began in Great Britain, and soon spread to the United States, Germany, and other countries. The jobs for ordinary people working with these machines were often dirty and dangerous by modern standards, but the alternative jobs of that time in peasant agriculture and small-village industry were often dirty and dangerous, too. The new jobs of the Industrial Revolution typically offered higher pay and a chance for social mobility. A selfreinforcing cycle began: New inventions and investments generated profits, the profits provided funds for more new investment and inventions, and the investments and inventions provided opportunities for further
|
profits. Slowly, a This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth 165 group of national economies in Europe and North America emerged from centuries of sluggishness into a period of rapid modern growth. During the last two centuries, the average GDP growth rate per capita in the leading industrialized countries has been about 2% per year. What were times like before then? Read the following Clear It Up feature for the answer. What were economic conditions like before 1870? Angus Maddison, a quantitative economic historian, led the most systematic inquiry into national incomes before 1870. Economists recently have refined and used his methods to compile GDP per capita estimates from year 1 C.E. to 1348. Table 7.1 is an important counterpoint to most of the narrative in this chapter. It shows that nations can decline as well as rise. A wide array of forces, such as epidemics, natural and weatherrelated disasters, the inability to govern large empires, and the remarkably slow pace of technological and institutional progress explain declines in income. Institutions are the traditions and laws by which people in a community agree to behave and govern themselves. Such institutions include marriage, religion, education, and laws of governance. Institutional progress is the development and codification of these institutions to reinforce social order, and thus, economic growth. One example of such an institution is the Magna Carta (Great Charter), which the English nobles forced King John to sign in 1215. The Magna Carta codified the principles of due process, whereby a free man could not be penalized unless his peers had made a lawful judgment against him. The United States in its own constitution later adopted this concept. This social order may have contributed to England’s GDP per capita in 1348, which was second to that of northern Italy. In studying economic growth, a country’s institutional framework plays a critical role. Table 7.1 also shows relative global equality for almost 1,300 years. After this, we begin to see significant divergence in income (not in the table). Northern Italy Spain England Holland Byzantium Iraq Egypt Japan $800 $600 $600 $600 $700 $700 $700 - Year 1 730 1000 1150 1280 - - - - - - - - - - - - 1300 $1,588 $864 $892 1348 $1,486 $907 $919 - - - - - - $600 $
|
580 - - - - $920 $730 $402 $820 $600 - $680 $660 $520 - - - $670 $527 $610 - - - Table 7.1 GDP Per Capita Estimates in Current International Dollars from AD 1 to 1348 (Source: Bolt and van Zanden. “The First Update of the Maddison Project. Re-Estimating Growth Before 1820.” 2013) Another fascinating and underreported fact is the high levels of income, compared to others at that time, attained by the Islamic Empire Abbasid Caliphate—which was founded in present-day Iraq in 730 C.E. At its height, the empire spanned large regions of the Middle East, North Africa, and Spain until its gradual decline over 200 years. 166 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth The Industrial Revolution led to increasing inequality among nations. Some economies took off, whereas others, like many of those in Africa or Asia, remained close to a subsistence standard of living. General calculations show that the 17 countries of the world with the most-developed economies had, on average, 2.4 times the GDP per capita of the world’s poorest economies in 1870. By 1960, the most developed economies had 4.2 times the GDP per capita of the poorest economies. However, by the middle of the twentieth century, some countries had shown that catching up was possible. Japan’s economic growth took off in the 1960s and 1970s, with a growth rate of real GDP per capita averaging 11% per year during those decades. Certain countries in Latin America experienced a boom in economic growth in the 1960s as well. In Brazil, for example, GDP per capita expanded by an average annual rate of 11.1% from 1968 to 1973. In the 1970s, some East Asian economies, including South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan, saw rapid growth. In these countries, growth rates of 11% to 12% per year in GDP per capita were not uncommon. More recently, China, with its population of nearly 1.4 billion people, grew at a per capita rate 9% per year from 1984 into the 2000s. India, with a population of 1.3 billion, has shown promising signs of economic growth, with growth in GDP per capita of about 4% per year during the 1990s and climbing toward 7% to 8% per year in the 2000s. Visit this website (http://openstaxcollege.org/l/asiadevbank) to read
|
about the Asian Development Bank. These waves of catch-up economic growth have not reached all shores. In certain African countries like Niger, Tanzania, and Sudan, for example, GDP per capita at the start of the 2000s was still less than $300, not much higher than it was in the nineteenth century and for centuries before that. In the context of the overall situation of low-income people around the world, the good economic news from China (population: 1.4 billion) and India (population: 1.3 billion) is, nonetheless, astounding and heartening. Economic growth in the last two centuries has made a striking change in the human condition. Richard Easterlin, an economist at the University of Southern California, wrote in 2000: By many measures, a revolution in the human condition is sweeping the world. Most people today are better fed, clothed, and housed than their predecessors two centuries ago. They are healthier, live longer, and are better educated. Women’s lives are less centered on reproduction and political democracy has gained a foothold. Although Western Europe and its offshoots have been the leaders of this advance, most of the less developed nations have joined in during the 20th century, with the newly emerging nations of sub-Saharan Africa the latest to participate. Although the picture is not one of universal progress, it is the greatest advance in the human condition of the world’s population ever achieved in such a brief span of time. Rule of Law and Economic Growth Economic growth depends on many factors. Key among those factors is adherence to the rule of law and protection of property rights and contractual rights by a country’s government so that markets can work effectively and efficiently. Laws must be clear, public, fair, enforced, and equally applicable to all members of society. Property rights, as you might recall from Environmental Protection and Negative Externalities (http://cnx.org/ content/m63688/latest/) are the rights of individuals and firms to own property and use it as they see fit. If you have $100, you have the right to use that money, whether you spend it, lend it, or keep it in a jar. It is your property. The definition of property includes physical property as well as the right to your training and experience, especially This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth 167 since your training is what determines your livelihood. Using this property
|
includes the right to enter into contracts with other parties with your property. Individuals or firms must own the property to enter into a contract. Contractual rights, then, are based on property rights and they allow individuals to enter into agreements with others regarding the use of their property providing recourse through the legal system in the event of noncompliance. One example is the employment agreement: a skilled surgeon operates on an ill person and expects payment. Failure to pay would constitute property theft by the patient. The theft is property the services that the surgeon provided. In a society with strong property rights and contractual rights, the terms of the patient–surgeon contract will be fulfilled, because the surgeon would have recourse through the court system to extract payment from that individual. Without a legal system that enforces contracts, people would not be likely to enter into contracts for current or future services because of the risk of non-payment. This would make it difficult to transact business and would slow economic growth. The World Bank considers a country’s legal system effective if it upholds property rights and contractual rights. The World Bank has developed a ranking system for countries’ legal systems based on effective protection of property rights and rule-based governance using a scale from 1 to 6, with 1 being the lowest and 6 the highest rating. In 2013, the world average ranking was 2.9. The three countries with the lowest ranking of 1.5 were Afghanistan, the Central African Republic, and Zimbabwe. Their GDP per capita was $679, $333, and $1,007 respectively. The World Bank cites Afghanistan as having a low standard of living, weak government structure, and lack of adherence to the rule of law, which has stymied its economic growth. The landlocked Central African Republic has poor economic resources as well as political instability and is a source of children used in human trafficking. Zimbabwe has had declining and often negative growth for much of the period since 1998. Land redistribution and price controls have disrupted the economy, and corruption and violence have dominated the political process. Although global economic growth has increased, those countries lacking a clear system of property rights and an independent court system free from corruption have lagged far behind. 7.2 | Labor Productivity and Economic Growth By the end of this section, you will be able to: Identify the role of labor productivity in promoting economic growth • • Analyze the sources of economic growth using the aggregate production function • Measure an economy’s rate of productivity growth • Evaluate the power of sustained growth S
|
ustained long-term economic growth comes from increases in worker productivity, which essentially means how well we do things. In other words, how efficient is your nation with its time and workers? Labor productivity is the value that each employed person creates per unit of his or her input. The easiest way to comprehend labor productivity is to imagine a Canadian worker who can make 10 loaves of bread in an hour versus a U.S. worker who in the same hour can make only two loaves of bread. In this fictional example, the Canadians are more productive. More productivity essentially means you can do more in the same amount of time. This in turn frees up resources for workers to use elsewhere. What determines how productive workers are? The answer is pretty intuitive. The first determinant of labor productivity is human capital. Human capital is the accumulated knowledge (from education and experience), skills, and expertise that the average worker in an economy possesses. Typically the higher the average level of education in an economy, the higher the accumulated human capital and the higher the labor productivity. The second factor that determines labor productivity is technological change. Technological change is a combination of invention—advances in knowledge—and innovation, which is putting those advances to use in a new product or service. For example, the transistor was invented in 1947. It allowed us to miniaturize the footprint of electronic devices and use less power than the tube technology that came before it. Innovations since then have produced smaller and better transistors that are ubiquitous in products as varied as smart-phones, computers, and escalators. Developing the transistor has allowed workers to be anywhere with smaller devices. People can use these devices to communicate with other workers, measure product quality or do any other task in less time, improving worker productivity. The third factor that determines labor productivity is economies of scale. Recall that economies of scale are the cost advantages that industries obtain due to size. (Read more about economies of scale in Production, Cost and Industry Structure (http://cnx.org/content/m63680/latest/).) Consider again the case of the fictional 168 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth Canadian worker who could produce 10 loaves of bread in an hour. If this difference in productivity was due only to economies of scale, it could be that the Canadian worker had access to a large industrial-size oven while the U.S. worker was using a standard residential size oven. Now that we have explored the determinants of worker productivity, let’s turn to how
|
economists measure economic growth and productivity. Sources of Economic Growth: The Aggregate Production Function To analyze the sources of economic growth, it is useful to think about a production function, which is the technical relationship by which economic inputs like labor, machinery, and raw materials are turned into outputs like goods and services that consumers use. A microeconomic production function describes a firm's or perhaps an industry's inputs and outputs. In macroeconomics, we call the connection from inputs to outputs for the entire economy an aggregate production function. Components of the Aggregate Production Function Economists construct different production functions depending on the focus of their studies. Figure 7.2 presents two examples of aggregate production functions. In the first production function in Figure 7.2 (a), the output is GDP. The inputs in this example are workforce, human capital, physical capital, and technology. We discuss these inputs further in the module, Components of Economic Growth. Figure 7.2 Aggregate Production Functions An aggregate production function shows what goes into producing the output for an overall economy. (a) This aggregate production function has GDP as its output. (b) This aggregate production function has GDP per capita as its output. Because we calculate it on a per-person basis, we already figure the labor input into the other factors and we do not need to list it separately. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth 169 Measuring Productivity An economy’s rate of productivity growth is closely linked to the growth rate of its GDP per capita, although the two are not identical. For example, if the percentage of the population who holds jobs in an economy increases, GDP per capita will increase but the productivity of individual workers may not be affected. Over the long term, the only way that GDP per capita can grow continually is if the productivity of the average worker rises or if there are complementary increases in capital. A common measure of U.S. productivity per worker is dollar value per hour the worker contributes to the employer’s output. This measure excludes government workers, because their output is not sold in the market and so their productivity is hard to measure. It also excludes farming, which accounts for only a relatively small share of the U.S. economy. Figure 7.3 shows an index of output per hour, with 2009 as the base year (when the index equals 100). The index equaled about 106 in 2014. In 1972, the index
|
equaled 50, which shows that workers have more than doubled their productivity since then. Figure 7.3 Output per Hour Worked in the U.S. Economy, 1947–2011 Output per hour worked is a measure of worker productivity. In the U.S. economy, worker productivity rose more quickly in the 1960s and the mid-1990s compared with the 1970s and 1980s. However, these growth-rate differences are only a few percentage points per year. Look carefully to see them in the changing slope of the line. The average U.S. worker produced over twice as much per hour in 2014 than he did in the early 1970s. (Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.) According to the Department of Labor, U.S. productivity growth was fairly strong in the 1950s but then declined in the 1970s and 1980s before rising again in the second half of the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s. In fact, the rate of productivity measured by the change in output per hour worked averaged 3.2% per year from 1950 to 1970; dropped to 1.9% per year from 1970 to 1990; and then climbed back to over 2.3% from 1991 to the present, with another modest slowdown after 2001. Figure 7.4 shows average annual rates of productivity growth averaged over time since 1950. 170 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth Figure 7.4 Productivity Growth Since 1950 U.S. growth in worker productivity was very high between 1950 and 1970. It then declined to lower levels in the 1970s and the 1980s. The late 1990s and early 2000s saw productivity rebound, but then productivity sagged a bit in the 2000s. Some think the productivity rebound of the late 1990s and early 2000s marks the start of a “new economy” built on higher productivity growth, but we cannot determine this until more time has passed. (Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.) The “New Economy” Controversy In recent years a controversy has been brewing among economists about the resurgence of U.S. productivity in the second half of the 1990s. One school of thought argues that the United States had developed a “new economy” based on the extraordinary advances in communications and information technology of the 1990s. The most optimistic proponents argue that it would generate higher average productivity growth for decades to come. The pessimists, alternatively, argue that even five or ten years
|
of stronger productivity growth does not prove that higher productivity will last for the long term. It is hard to infer anything about long-term productivity trends during the later part of the 2000s, because the steep 2008-2009 recession, with its sharp but not completely synchronized declines in output and employment, complicates any interpretation. While productivity growth was high in 2009 and 2010 (around 3%), it has slowed down since then. Productivity growth is also closely linked to the average level of wages. Over time, the amount that firms are willing to pay workers will depend on the value of the output those workers produce. If a few employers tried to pay their workers less than what those workers produced, then those workers would receive offers of higher wages from other profit-seeking employers. If a few employers mistakenly paid their workers more than what those workers produced, those employers would soon end up with losses. In the long run, productivity per hour is the most important determinant of the average wage level in any economy. To learn how to compare economies in this regard, follow the steps in the following Work It Out feature. Comparing the Economies of Two Countries The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) tracks data on the annual growth rate of real GDP per hour worked. You can find these data on the OECD data webpage “Growth in GDP per capita, This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth 171 productivity and ULC” at this (http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=PDB_GR) website. Step 1. Visit the OECD website given above and select two countries to compare. Step 2. On the drop-down menu “Subject,” select “ GDP per capita, constant prices,” and under “Measure,” select “Annual growth/change.” Then record the data for the countries you have chosen for the five most recent years. Step 3. Go back to the drop-down “Subject” menu and select “GDP per hour worked, constant prices,” and under “Measure” again select “Annual growth/change.” Select data for the same years for which you selected GDP per capita data. Step 4. Compare real GDP growth for both countries. Table 7.2 provides an example of a comparison between Belgium and Canada
|
. Australia 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Real GDP/Capita Growth (%) 2.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4 0.1% Real GDP Growth/Hours Worked (%) 1.7% −0.1% 1.4% 2.2% −0.2% Belgium 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Real GDP/Capita Growth (%) Real GDP Growth/Hours Worked (%) 0.9 −0.5 −0.6 −0.3 −0.5 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.9 Table 7.2 Step 5. For both measures, growth in Canada is greater than growth in Belgium for the first four years. In addition, there are year-to-year fluctuations. Many factors can affect growth. For example, one factor that may have contributed to Canada’s stronger growth may be its larger inflows of immigrants, who generally contribute to economic growth. The Power of Sustained Economic Growth Nothing is more important for people’s standard of living than sustained economic growth. Even small changes in the rate of growth, when sustained and compounded over long periods of time, make an enormous difference in the standard of living. Consider Table 7.3, in which the rows of the table show several different rates of growth in GDP per capita and the columns show different periods of time. Assume for simplicity that an economy starts with a GDP per capita of 100. The table then applies the following formula to calculate what GDP will be at the given growth rate in the future: GDP at starting date × (1 + growth rate of GDP)years = GDP at end date For example, an economy that starts with a GDP of 100 and grows at 3% per year will reach a GDP of 209 after 25 years; that is, 100 (1.03)25 = 209. The slowest rate of GDP per capita growth in the table, just 1% per year, is similar to what the United States experienced during its weakest years of productivity growth. The second highest rate, 3% per year, is close to what the U.S. economy experienced during the strong economy of the late 1990s and into the 2000s. Higher rates of per capita growth, such as 5% or 8% per year, represent the experience of rapid growth in economies like Japan, Korea, and China. Table 7.3 shows that even a few percentage points of difference in economic growth rates will have a profound effect if sustained and compounded over time
|
. For example, an economy growing at a 1% annual rate over 50 years will see its GDP per capita rise by a total of 64%, from 100 to 164 in this example. However, a country growing at a 5% annual rate will see (almost) the same amount of growth—from 100 to 163—over just 10 years. Rapid rates of economic growth can bring profound transformation. (See the following Clear It Up feature on the relationship between compound growth rates and compound interest rates.) If the rate of growth is 8%, young adults starting at 172 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth age 20 will see the average standard of living in their country more than double by the time they reach age 30, and grow nearly sixfold by the time they reach age 45. Growth Rate Value of an original 100 in 10 Years Value of an original 100 in 25 Years Value of an original 100 in 50 Years 1% 3% 5% 8% 110 134 163 216 128 209 339 685 164 438 1,147 4,690 Table 7.3 Growth of GDP over Different Time Horizons This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth 173 How are compound growth rates and compound interest rates related? The formula for GDP growth rates over different periods of time, as Figure 7.3 shows, is exactly the same as the formula for how a given amount of financial savings grows at a certain interest rate over time, as presented in Choice in a World of Scarcity. Both formulas have the same ingredients: • an original starting amount, in one case GDP and in the other case an amount of financial saving; • a percentage increase over time, in one case the GDP growth rate and in the other case an interest rate; • and an amount of time over which this effect happens. Recall that compound interest is interest that is earned on past interest. It causes the total amount of financial savings to grow dramatically over time. Similarly, compound rates of economic growth, or the compound growth rate, means that we multiply the rate of growth by a base that includes past GDP growth, with dramatic effects over time. For example, in 2013, the Central Intelligence Agency's World Fact Book reported that South Korea had a GDP of $1.67 trillion with a growth rate of 2.8%. We can estimate that at that growth rate, South Korea’s GDP will be $1.92 trillion in five years. If we apply the growth rate to each year
|
’s ending GDP for the next five years, we will calculate that at the end of year one, GDP is $1.72 trillion. In year two, we start with the end-of-year one value of $1.72 and increase it by 2.8%. Year three starts with the end-of-year two GDP, and we increase it by 2.8% and so on, as Table 7.4 depicts. Year Starting GDP Growth Rate 2% Year-End Amount $1.67 Trillion × $1.72 Trillion × $1.76 Trillion × $1.81 Trillion × $1.87 Trillion × 1 2 3 4 5 Table 7.4 (1+0.028) (1+0.028) (1+0.028) (1+0.028) (1+0.028) $1.72 Trillion $1.76 Trillion $1.81 Trillion $1.87 Trillion $1.92 Trillion Another way to calculate the growth rate is to apply the following formula: Future Value = Present Value × (1 + g) n Where “future value” is the value of GDP five years hence, “present value” is the starting GDP amount of $1.67 trillion, “g” is the growth rate of 2.8%, and “n” is the number of periods for which we are calculating growth. Future Value = 1.67 × (1+0.028) 5 = $1.92 trillion 174 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth 7.3 | Components of Economic Growth By the end of this section, you will be able to: • Discuss the components of economic growth, including physical capital, human capital, and technology • Explain capital deepening and its significance • Analyze the methods employed in economic growth accounting studies Identify factors that contribute to a healthy climate for economic growth • Over decades and generations, seemingly small differences of a few percentage points in the annual rate of economic growth make an enormous difference in GDP per capita. In this module, we discuss some of the components of economic growth, including physical capital, human capital, and technology. The category of physical capital includes the plant and equipment that firms use as well as things like roads (also called infrastructure). Again, greater physical capital implies more output. Physical capital can affect productivity in two ways: (1) an increase in the quantity of physical capital (for example, more computers
|
of the same quality); and (2) an increase in the quality of physical capital (same number of computers but the computers are faster, and so on). Human capital refers to the skills and knowledge that make workers productive. Human capital and physical capital accumulation are similar: In both cases, investment now pays off in higher productivity in the future. The category of technology is the “joker in the deck.” Earlier we described it as the combination of invention and innovation. When most people think of new technology, the invention of new products like the laser, the smartphone, or some new wonder drug come to mind. In food production, developing more drought-resistant seeds is another example of technology. Technology, as economists use the term, however, includes still more. It includes new ways of organizing work, like the invention of the assembly line, new methods for ensuring better quality of output in factories, and innovative institutions that facilitate the process of converting inputs into output. In short, technology comprises all the advances that make the existing machines and other inputs produce more, and at higher quality, as well as altogether new products. It may not make sense to compare the GDPs of China and say, Benin, simply because of the great difference in population size. To understand economic growth, which is really concerned with the growth in living standards of an average person, it is often useful to focus on GDP per capita. Using GDP per capita also makes it easier to compare countries with smaller numbers of people, like Belgium, Uruguay, or Zimbabwe, with countries that have larger populations, like the United States, the Russian Federation, or Nigeria. To obtain a per capita production function, divide each input in Figure 7.2(a) by the population. This creates a second aggregate production function where the output is GDP per capita (that is, GDP divided by population). The inputs are the average level of human capital per person, the average level of physical capital per person, and the level of technology per person—see Figure 7.2(b). The result of having population in the denominator is mathematically appealing. Increases in population lower per capita income. However, increasing population is important for the average person only if the rate of income growth exceeds population growth. A more important reason for constructing a per capita production function is to understand the contribution of human and physical capital. Capital Deepening When society increases the level of capital per person, we call the result capital deepening. The idea of capital deepening can apply both to additional human capital per
|
worker and to additional physical capital per worker. Recall that one way to measure human capital is to look at the average levels of education in an economy. Figure 7.5 illustrates the human capital deepening for U.S. workers by showing that the proportion of the U.S. population with a high school and a college degree is rising. As recently as 1970, for example, only about half of U.S. adults had at least a high school diploma. By the start of the twenty-first century, more than 80% of adults had graduated from high school. The idea of human capital deepening also applies to the years of experience that workers have, but the average experience level of U.S. workers has not changed much in recent decades. Thus, the key dimension for deepening human capital in the U.S. economy focuses more on additional education and training than on a higher average level of work experience. This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth 175 Figure 7.5 Human Capital Deepening in the U.S. Rising levels of education for persons 25 and older show the deepening of human capital in the U.S. economy. Even today, under one-third of U.S. adults have completed a fouryear college degree. There is clearly room for additional deepening of human capital to occur. (Source: US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics) Figure 7.6 shows physical capital deepening in the U.S. economy. The average U.S. worker in the late 2000s was working with physical capital worth almost three times as much as that of the average worker of the early 1950s. 176 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth Figure 7.6 Physical Capital per Worker in the United States The value of the physical capital, measured by plant and equipment, used by the average worker in the U.S. economy has risen over the decades. The increase may have leveled off a bit in the 1970s and 1980s, which were, not coincidentally, times of slower-than-usual growth in worker productivity. We see a renewed increase in physical capital per worker in the late 1990s, followed by a flattening in the early 2000s. (Source: Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices, University of Pennsylvania) Not only does the current U.S. economy have better-educated workers with more and improved physical capital than it did several decades ago,
|
but these workers have access to more advanced technologies. Growth in technology is impossible to measure with a simple line on a graph, but evidence that we live in an age of technological marvels is all around us—discoveries in genetics and in the structure of particles, the wireless internet, and other inventions almost too numerous to count. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office typically has issued more than 150,000 patents annually in recent years. This recipe for economic growth—investing in labor productivity, with investments in human capital and technology, as well as increasing physical capital—also applies to other economies. South Korea, for example, already achieved universal enrollment in primary school (the equivalent of kindergarten through sixth grade in the United States) by 1965, when Korea’s GDP per capita was still near its rock bottom low. By the late 1980s, Korea had achieved almost universal secondary school education (the equivalent of a high school education in the United States). With regard to physical capital, Korea’s rates of investment had been about 15% of GDP at the start of the 1960s, but doubled to 30–35% of GDP by the late 1960s and early 1970s. With regard to technology, South Korean students went to universities and colleges around the world to obtain scientific and technical training, and South Korean firms reached out to study and form partnerships with firms that could offer them technological insights. These factors combined to foster South Korea’s high rate of economic growth. Growth Accounting Studies Since the late 1950s, economists have conducted growth accounting studies to determine the extent to which physical and human capital deepening and technology have contributed to growth. The usual approach uses an aggregate production function to estimate how much of per capita economic growth can be attributed to growth in physical capital and human capital. We can measure these two inputs at least roughly. The part of growth that is unexplained by measured inputs, called the residual, is then attributed to growth in technology. The exact numerical estimates differ from study to study and from country to country, depending on how researchers measured these three main This OpenStax book is available for free at http://cnx.org/content/col12190/1.4 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth 177 factors and over what time horizons. For studies of the U.S. economy, three lessons commonly emerge from growth accounting studies. First, technology is typically the most important contributor to U.S. economic growth. Growth in human capital and physical capital often explains only half or less than half
|
of the economic growth that occurs. New ways of doing things are tremendously important. Second, while investment in physical capital is essential to growth in labor productivity and GDP per capita, building human capital is at least as important. Economic growth is not just a matter of more machines and buildings. One vivid example of the power of human capital and technological knowledge occurred in Europe in the years after World War II (1939–1945). During the war, a large share of Europe’s physical capital, such as factories, roads, and vehicles, was destroyed. Europe also lost an overwhelming amount of human capital in the form of millions of men, women, and children who died during the war. However, the powerful combination of skilled workers and technological knowledge, working within a market-oriented economic framework, rebuilt Europe’s productive capacity to an even higher level within less than two decades. A third lesson is that these three factors of human capital, physical capital, and technology work together. Workers with a higher level of education and skills are often better at coming up with new technological innovations. These technological innovations are often ideas that cannot increase production until they become a part of new investment in physical capital. New machines that embody technological innovations often require additional training, which builds worker skills further. If the recipe for economic growth is to succeed, an economy needs all the ingredients of the aggregate production function. See the following Clear It Up feature for an example of how human capital, physical capital, and technology can combine to significantly impact lives. How do girls’ education and economic growth relate in lowincome countries? In the early 2000s, according to the World Bank, about 110 million children between the ages of 6 and 11 were not in school—and about two-thirds of them were girls. In Afghanistan, for example, the literacy rate for those aged 15-24 for the period 2005-2014 was 62% for males and only 32% for females. In Benin, in West Africa, it was 55% for males and 31% for females. In Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, it was 76% for males and 58 percent for females. Whenever any child does not receive a basic education, it is both a human and an economic loss. In lowincome countries, wages typically increase by an average of 10 to 20% with each additional year of education. There is, however, some intriguing evidence that helping girls in low-income countries to close the education gap with boys may be especially important, because of the social role
|
that many of the girls will play as mothers and homemakers. Girls in low-income countries who receive more education tend to grow up to have fewer, healthier, bettereducated children. Their children are more likely to be better nourished and to receive basic health care like immunizations. Economic research on women in low-income economies backs up these findings. When 20 women obtain one additional year of schooling, as a group they will, on average, have one less child. When 1,000 women obtain one additional year of schooling, on average one to two fewer women from that group will die in childbirth. When a woman stays in school an additional year, that factor alone means that, on average, each of her children will spend an additional half-year in school. Education for girls is a good investment because it is an investment in economic growth with benefits beyond the current generation. A Healthy Climate for Economic Growth While physical and human capital deepening and better technology are important, equally important to a nation’s well-being is the climate or system within which these inputs are cultivated. Both the type of market economy and a legal system that governs and sustains property rights and contractual rights are important contributors to a healthy economic climate. 178 Chapter 7 | Economic Growth A healthy economic climate usually involves some sort of market orientation at the microeconomic, individual, or firm decision-making level. Markets that allow personal and business rewards and incentives for increasing human and physical capital encourage overall macroeconomic growth. For example, when workers participate in a competitive and well-functioning labor market, they have an incentive to acquire additional human capital, because additional education and skills will pay off in higher wages. Firms have an incentive to invest in physical capital and in training workers, because they expect to earn higher profits for their shareholders. Both individuals and firms look for new technologies, because even small inventions can make work easier or lead to product improvement. Collectively, such individual and business decisions made within a market structure add up to macroeconomic growth. Much of the rapid growth since the late nineteenth century has come from harnessing the power of competitive markets to allocate resources. This market orientation typically reaches beyond national borders and includes openness to international trade. A general orientation toward markets does not rule out important roles for government. There are times when markets fail to allocate capital or technology in a manner that provides the greatest benefit for society as a whole. The government's role is to correct these failures. In addition, government can guide or influence markets toward certain outcomes.
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.