Temporal Twins: A Matched-Control Benchmark for Temporal Fraud Detection

Synthetic UPI-style temporal transaction benchmark where fraud and benign trajectories are matched on static and prefix-level summaries but differ in delayed event-order structure.

Links

Installation

Recommended Python: 3.11+

pip install -r requirements.txt

If you prefer Conda:

conda env create -f environment.yml
conda activate temporal-twins

Repository Structure

  • src/: synthetic user, transaction, risk, fraud, graph, and temporal benchmark generation code
  • models/: SeqGRU, static baselines, audit/probe models, and temporal GNN wrappers
  • experiments/: deterministic benchmark runner and matched-prefix evaluation utilities
  • config/: base YAML configs used by the experiment runner
  • configs/: release-facing config snapshots for calibration and paper-suite reproduction
  • docs/: determinism and supporting documentation
  • metadata/: MLCommons Croissant metadata and validation notes
  • results/: lightweight frozen paper-suite summaries and interpretation notes

Quick Smoke Test

PYTHONPATH=. python3 experiments/run_all.py \
  --fast \
  --seed 0 \
  --benchmark-mode temporal_twins_oracle_calib \
  --experiments audit \
  --device cpu

Exact Paper-Scale Reproduction

The checked-in CLI exposes --benchmark-mode, --seed, --seeds, --fast, --device, and --experiments, but not separate --difficulty, --num-users, or --simulation-days flags. For the exact grouped paper-scale runs, use the helper below from the repository root.

Define this shell helper once:

run_group() {
  local group="$1"
  local seed="$2"
  local out_json="$3"

  PYTHONPATH=. python3 - "$group" "$seed" "$out_json" <<'PY'
import json
import math
import sys
import time
from pathlib import Path

from src.core.config_loader import load_config
from experiments.run_all import (
    build_gate_pool_from_frames,
    gate_volume_is_sufficient,
    generate_single_difficulty,
    offset_gate_namespace,
    prepare_gate_subset,
    run_motif_validity_check,
    set_global_determinism,
)


def normalize(value):
    if isinstance(value, dict):
        return {k: normalize(v) for k, v in value.items()}
    if isinstance(value, (list, tuple)):
        return [normalize(v) for v in value]
    if hasattr(value, "item"):
        try:
            value = value.item()
        except Exception:
            pass
    if isinstance(value, float) and not math.isfinite(value):
        return None
    return value


group = sys.argv[1]
seed = int(sys.argv[2])
out_json = Path(sys.argv[3])

if group == "oracle_calib":
    benchmark_mode = "temporal_twins_oracle_calib"
    difficulty = "easy"
    hard_abort = True
else:
    benchmark_mode = "temporal_twins"
    difficulty = group
    hard_abort = False

cfg = load_config("config/default.yaml")
cfg = cfg.model_copy(
    update={
        "num_users": 350,
        "simulation_days": 45,
        "benchmark_mode": benchmark_mode,
        "random_seed": seed,
    }
)

set_global_determinism(seed)
pool = generate_single_difficulty(
    cfg,
    difficulty=difficulty,
    seed=seed,
    benchmark_mode=benchmark_mode,
)
gate = prepare_gate_subset(pool, seed=seed, fast_mode=False)
pack_count = 1

while (not gate_volume_is_sufficient(gate["volume"], False)) and pack_count <= 6:
    extra_seed = seed + pack_count * 10007
    extra_pack = generate_single_difficulty(
        cfg,
        difficulty=difficulty,
        seed=extra_seed,
        benchmark_mode=benchmark_mode,
    )
    extra_pack = offset_gate_namespace(extra_pack, pack_count)
    pool = build_gate_pool_from_frames([pool, extra_pack])
    gate = prepare_gate_subset(pool, seed=seed, fast_mode=False)
    pack_count += 1

gate["source_pool_events"] = int(len(pool))
gate["source_pool_pairs"] = int(pool.loc[pool["twin_pair_id"] >= 0, "twin_pair_id"].nunique()) if "twin_pair_id" in pool.columns else 0
gate["source_pool_packs"] = int(pack_count)

start = time.time()
gate_pass, report = run_motif_validity_check(
    df=pool,
    config=cfg,
    seed=seed,
    device="cpu",
    num_epochs=3,
    node_epochs=150,
    n_checkpoints=8,
    hard_abort=hard_abort,
    benchmark_mode=benchmark_mode,
    fast_mode=False,
    force_temporal_models=True,
    prebuilt_gate=gate,
)
elapsed = time.time() - start

result = {
    "benchmark_group": group,
    "benchmark_mode": benchmark_mode,
    "seed": seed,
    "primary_metric_label": report["audit_metric_label"],
    "secondary_metric_label": report["raw_metric_label"],
    "gate_pass": bool(gate_pass),
    "run_wall_time_sec": float(elapsed),
    **report,
}

out_json.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
out_json.write_text(json.dumps(normalize(result), indent=2) + "\n")
print(f"Wrote {out_json}")
PY
}

Reproduce oracle_calib

run_group oracle_calib 0 results/paper_suite_repro/jobs/oracle_calib_0.json

Reproduce easy

run_group easy 0 results/paper_suite_repro/jobs/easy_0.json

Reproduce medium

run_group medium 0 results/paper_suite_repro/jobs/medium_0.json

Reproduce hard

run_group hard 0 results/paper_suite_repro/jobs/hard_0.json

Reproduce the Full Paper Suite

mkdir -p results/paper_suite_repro/jobs

for group in oracle_calib easy medium hard; do
  for seed in 0 1 2 3 4; do
    run_group "$group" "$seed" "results/paper_suite_repro/jobs/${group}_${seed}.json"
  done
done

The frozen reference outputs for the final deterministic suite are already included in results/:

  • paper_suite_summary.csv
  • paper_suite_summary.md
  • paper_suite_runtime.csv
  • paper_suite_meta.json
  • paper_suite_runs.csv
  • PAPER_GATE_INTERPRETATION.md

Expected Headline Results

Benchmark XGBoost ROC-AUC StaticGNN ROC-AUC SeqGRU ROC-AUC SeqGRU Shuffle Delta
oracle_calib 0.5000 0.5222 1.0000 -0.5032
easy 0.5000 0.4946 1.0000 -0.5003
medium 0.5000 0.4922 0.8391 -0.3337
hard 0.5000 0.5026 0.6876 -0.1883

Determinism

CPU deterministic runtime is enabled. The same seed should reproduce identical matched-prefix data and metrics. Deterministic torch settings can slow runtime, especially for the non-fast paper-scale suite.

Data Note

This code repository contains source code, metadata, documentation, and lightweight result summaries only. The generated synthetic dataset and full release artifacts are hosted separately at the dataset repository:

Privacy Note

  • Synthetic data only
  • No real UPI transactions
  • No real users
  • No real bank accounts
  • No personal financial records

License

  • Code: Apache-2.0
  • Dataset and generated benchmark artifacts: CC-BY-4.0

Citation

Anonymous NeurIPS 2026 submission; final citation to be added after review.

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