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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- On Tuesday, the Commerce Department plans to report the international trade deficit in goods and services for February, and analysts expect the number to come in at $44.0 billion. That would be up from $27 billion in mid-2009, when the economic recovery began. The trade deficit subtracts from demand for U.S.-made goods and services, just as a large federal budget deficit adds to it. Consequently, a rising trade deficit slows economic recovery and jobs creation and limits how much Congress and the President may cut the deficit without sinking the economic recovery. Rising oil prices and imports from China are driving the trade deficit up, and these are major barriers to creating enough jobs to pull unemployment to acceptable levels over the next several years. If the Obama Administration and Republican leadership in Congress addressed the trade deficit, economic growth, jobs creation and tax revenue would increase dramatically, and the federal deficit could be cut to manageable levels without fear of killing jobs creation. Jobs Creation The economy added 216,000 jobs March, but 360,000 jobs must be added per month to bring unemployment down to 6% over the next 36 months. With federal and state governments trimming civil servants, private sector jobs growth must exceed 360,000 per month to accomplish this goal. Americans have returned to the malls and new car showrooms but too many dollars go abroad to purchase Middle Eastern oil and Chinese consumer goods that do not return to buy U.S. exports. This leaves too many Americans jobless and wages stagnant, and state and municipal governments with chronic budget woes. Now, the increase of gasoline prices to $4.00 a gallon threatens to further reduce spending on homes and discretionary items made in the U.S. -- leaving many U.S. businesses again scrambling for customers and pressured to layoff workers. Simply, policies regarding energy and trade with China are not creating conditions for the 5% GDP growth that is needed and easily could be achieved to bring unemployment down to acceptable levels. In March, the private sector added 230,000 jobs, but many were in government-subsidized health care and social services, and temporary business services. Netting those out, core private sector jobs have increased only 157,000 in March. That comes to 50 permanent, non-government-subsidized jobs per county for more than 5,000 job seekers per county. Early in a recovery, temporary jobs appear first, but 21 months into the expansion, permanent, non-government-subsidized jobs creation should be much stronger.
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Morici 11 (Peter, The Street, Professor Peter Morici, of the Robert H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland, is a recognized expert on economic policy and international economics, director of the Office of Economics at the U.S. International Trade Commission, “U.S. Trade Deficit Rises With Increasing Oil Prices And China Imports,” 4-11-11, http://www.businessinsider.com/trade-deficit-is-sign-of-economys-problems-2011-4)
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, the Commerce Department plans to report the international trade deficit in goods and services for Februa That would be up from $27 billion in mid-2009, when the economic recovery began The trade deficit subtracts from demand for U.S.-made goods and services, just as a large federal budget deficit adds to it Rising oil prices and imports from China are driving the trade deficit up, and these are major barriers to creating enough jobs to pull unemployment to acceptable levels over the next several years If the Obama Administration and Republican leadership in Congress addressed the trade deficit, economic growth, would increase dramatically and the federal deficit could be cut to manageable levels without fear of killing jobs creation With federal and state governments trimming civil servants, private sector jobs growth must exceed 360,000 per month to accomplish this goal. but too many dollars go abroad to purchase Middle Eastern oil and Chinese consumer goods that do not return to buy U.S. exports This leaves too many Americans jobless and wages stagnant, and state and municipal governments with chronic budget woes leaving many U.S. businesses again scrambling for customers and pressured to layoff worker policies regarding energy and trade with China are not creating conditions for the 5% GDP growth that is needed and easily could be achieved to bring unemployment down to acceptable levels Early in a recovery, temporary jobs appear first, but 21 months into the expansion, permanent, non-government-subsidized jobs creation should be much stronger.
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High Oil Prices massively increase the US Trade Deficit – kills the economy
| 2,609 | 75 | 1,574 | 411 | 13 | 247 | 0.03163 | 0.600973 |
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Just as people require food, economies require energy. The relationship is straightforward: economic growth is a function of energy consumption. With national economies around the world once again forced to pay more than $100 for every barrel of oil consumed, a critical question must be asked -- what happens when the world's most important source of energy becomes unaffordable? A glance at the latest GDP numbers is already telling us the answer. Economic growth has downshifted into a much lower gear nearly everywhere you look. Europe is struggling to keep its head above water, North America is stagnating and even the hard-charging economies of the BRIC nations are starting to groan under the weight of high energy prices. When the price of oil goes up, something has to give. Right now, the European Monetary Union looks to be the most imminent casualty. How much longer will Greece slavishly heed the demands of its creditors and impose punishing austerity measures with the only result being the continuing implosion of its economy? Will Spain be able to tighten its belt any further when a quarter of its labor force is already unemployed? The answers seem obvious. Without economic growth, neither country can service its debt. And growth just isn't in the cards. The ground beneath the European Monetary Union has never been shakier. And as the Euro trembles, the stage is being set for a return of the drachma, escudo, peseta, Irish pound, and lira. When we look across the Pacific we see that even China and India, the global economy's principal engines of growth, can't escape the toll exacted by high energy prices. When policy makers in Beijing tried to sustain double-digit economic growth, food and energy inflation quickly slammed on the brakes. The economies of China and India will soon struggle to grow at half the torrid pace of recent years. When that happens, the rest of the world will need to pay attention. In a world where distance costs money, China will increasingly look to its own 1.3 billion consumers to drive economic growth. If China decides to focus on tapping the potential of its huge domestic market, rather than supplying cheap goods to faraway Walmarts, the economic balance of power will tilt decidedly eastward. What happens if the People's Bank of China then decides that buying U.S. treasuries is no longer a necessity? U.S. taxpayers, for one, don't want to find out. They'll be left footing the bill for Washington's budget deficit -- currently at $1.25 trillion.
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Rubin 12 [Jeff Rubin, Former Chief Economist, CIBC World Market, “The End of Growth”, 5/2/12, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-rubin/the-end-of-growth_b_1471216.html]
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economies require energy. The relationship is straightforward: economic growth is a function of energy consumption With economies around the world forced to pay more than $100 for every barrel -- what happens when the world's most important source of energy becomes unaffordable GDP numbers is already telling us the answer. Economic growth has downshifted everywhere you look. Europe is struggling North America is stagnating and the BRIC nations are starting to groan under the weight of high energy prices. When the price of oil goes up, something has to give. growth just isn't in the cards. The ground beneath the European Monetary Union has never been shakier . When we look across the Pacific we see that even China and India, the global economy's principal engines of growth, can't escape the toll exacted by high energy prices When policy makers in Beijing tried to sustain double-digit economic growth, food and energy inflation quickly slammed on the brakes The economies of China and India will soon struggle to grow at half the torrid pace of recent years When that happens, the rest of the world will need to pay attention In a world where distance costs money, China will increasingly look to its own 1.3 billion consumers to drive economic growth the economic balance of power will tilt decidedly eastward the They'll be left footing the bill for Washington's budget deficit -- currently at $1.25 trillion.
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High Oil Prices kill Chinese economy – leads to T-Bill Sell-off
| 2,515 | 63 | 1,422 | 419 | 11 | 235 | 0.026253 | 0.560859 |
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But imagine a China disintegrating - on its own, without neo-conservative or Central Intelligence Agency prompting, much less outright military invasion - because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses. That would knock Asia into chaos. A massive flood of refugees would head for Indonesia and other places with poor border controls, which don't want them and can't handle them; some in Japan might lick their lips at the prospect of World War II Revisited and look to annex a slice of China. That would send Singapore and Malaysia - once occupied by Japan - into nervous breakdowns. Meanwhile, India might make a grab for Tibet, and Pakistan for Kashmir. Then you can say hello to World War III, Asia-style. That's why wise policy encourages Chinese stability, security and economic growth - the very direction the White House now seems to prefer.
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Plate 3 (Tom, Professor of Communications – UCLA, Straights Times, 6-28, Lexis)
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imagine a China disintegrating because the economy suddenly collapses. That would knock Asia into chaos. of refugees would head for Indonesia some in Japan might lick their lips and look to annex a slice of China. That would send Singapore and Malaysia into nervous breakdowns , India might make a grab for Tibet, and Pakistan for Kashmir. Then you can say hello to World War III, Asia-style. That's why wise policy encourages Chinese economic growth
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Chinese economic collapse causes World War III
| 866 | 46 | 450 | 142 | 7 | 75 | 0.049296 | 0.528169 |
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In late 1998 Russia's economy suffered a major downturn that saw its financial markets collapse. As a result of world commodity prices sinking, Russia's slick black oil and gas-driven economy turned into a red sea of disasters - and the insurance market followed suit in a crash of its own. But, slowly, Russia began to rebuild itself. And like any country depending on exports, the win-lose battle suddenly started to improve. With oil prices skyrocketing to a new all-time high of close to $105 (£52.6) per barrel this month, it seems likely the country will stay in the black. "It is impossible to think of any event that might cause a similar fall in country's insurance market," says Nikolay Galushin, deputy chief executive officer for corporate development of Ingosstrakh, one of the country's largest domestic insurance companies.
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Post Magazine 8 (3-31, Lexis)
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In 98 Russia's economy suffered a major downturn that saw its financial markets collapse Russia's economy turned into a sea of disasters But Russia began to rebuild the country will stay in the black It is impossible to think of any event that might cause a similar fall
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-- Russian economy resilient – and impact is empirically denied
| 838 | 63 | 270 | 137 | 10 | 48 | 0.072993 | 0.350365 |
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Using extensive interviews with participants in all three administrations, and memoirs by former officials, they paint a compelling picture of officials often over-whelmed by the challenge of an entirely new reality. The unexpected collapse of communism and of the Soviet Union, coming just after the GulfWar, left them with no road map to understand how Russia and other post-Soviet states might develop. Nightmare scenarios suggested themselves: nuclear war between Russia and Ukraine; weapons proliferation on a terrifying scale; Yugoslav-type ethnically based civil war on the territory of the former Soviet Union; mass starvation; economic collapse--the ominous possibilities were endless. That these "dogs did not bark" is testimony to the unwillingness of people in the post-Soviet space to engage in armed conflict and to Western assistance that staved off famine and economic collapse. The failure of catastrophic scenarios to come about is one indicator of success--but if one were to measure America's contribution to transforming Russia in more positive ways, the evidence is more mixed. If a minimalist definition of success was the absence of catastrophe, the maximalist definition was the creation of a fully functioning democracy in Russia with a transparent market economy and the rule of law. That has not happened yet, and it is unclear when it will. So far, there is no consensus about what would constitute a realistic timetable for Russia's democratic development.
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WPJ 3 (World Policy Journal, 12-22)
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Nightmare scenarios suggested civil war economic collapse That these "dogs did not bark" is testimony to the unwillingness of people in the post-Soviet space to engage in armed conflict and to Western assistance that staved off economic collapse
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-- Empirics disprove Russian collapse
| 1,486 | 37 | 245 | 227 | 5 | 38 | 0.022026 | 0.167401 |
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More than a month after Venezuela's contested presidential election, President Nicolás Maduro's narrow victory has yet to be recognized by the United States. Refusing to legitimize the new premier while a partial recount of the vote is underway, the US position has led to further political tensions in a relationship historically stressed under the leadership of former President Hugo Chávez. A handful of countries, including Chile, Peru, and the US, have expressed concern over the democratic standards of the election, which Maduro won by a little more than 1 percent of the vote. Venezuela's opposition party is calling for the results to be annulled, citing over 3,000 instances of election fraud, ranging from alleged multiple-voting in chavista-strongholds to polling booth intimidation. "Obviously, if there are huge irregularities we are going to have serious questions about the viability of that government," said Secretary of State John Kerry during a hearing of the US Foreign Affairs Committee following the announcement of President Maduro's victory in April. While the US has pledged not to interfere with Venezuelan politics, the refusal to recognize Maduro's presidency has left many to question what message the US is trying to send, and how - if at all - it will impact Venezuela post-Chávez. "[The US isn't] recognizing or failing to recognize," says David Smilde, professor of sociology at the University of Georgia. "They're just waiting. But here in Venezuela that's seen as an act of belligerence." 'Symbolic' The US's reluctance to accept the new leader affects little in economic terms; the heavy crude is still flowing steadily from the Venezuelan oil fields into US refineries, a trading relationship upon which Venezuela relies heavily, particularly following the recent slump in global oil prices. In fact, many believe the US's reluctance to legitimize Maduro amounts to little more than a message to other regional observers. "Maduro is certainly now the president of Venezuela," says Mark Jones, professor of political science at Rice University in Texas. "The US's refusal to recognize him is more symbolic than anything else. Ignoring Maduro's win sends a signal to other Latin American countries that these elections didn't meet minimum democratic standards." Other observers cite the socialist leader's continued belligerence toward Washington - Maduro blames the US government's "dark forces" for the death of Mr. Chávez and has pursued the provocative rhetoric of his predecessor - as a factor in the US's reluctance to recognize Maduro as president. "You can't blame the US for not extending their hand," says Mr. Smilde. "Maduro has been denouncing US conspiracies since the day Chávez died." Maduro reacted publicly to President Obama's announcement that the US was withholding recognition of his victory by describing the US president as the "Grand chief of devils" and threatening to cut off oil exports to the country."That's an entirely hollow threat," says Professor Jones, "96 percent of Venezuela's export revenues come from oil, so Maduro is not going to do anything to upset that." Regional recognition Meanwhile, other countries in the region were quick to congratulate Maduro on his victory. In fact, the new leader spent last week on a whistle-stop tour of friendly regional governments including Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil in an attempt to secure his leadership status. "Things haven't been going well for Maduro since the election," says Smilde. "his recent touring of the continent has been a very obvious attempt to demonstrate his legitimacy." Following the hotly contested election, which many Venezuelans believe was stolen by a socialist government fearing the loss of power, country-wide protests erupted. Riot police fought protesters with tear gas and nightly "cacerolazo" sound protests filled the capital with a cacophony of noise. Although officially victorious, Maduro's slim win compared to the eleven percent by which Chávez defeated the same opponent last October left the new premier with little mandate to govern. "A lot of Venezuelans seem to think that a close election is not a valid election, so this leaves room for Maduro's critics to question it," says Mark Weisbrot of the Center for Economic and Policy research, an independent think-tank in Washington. Mr. Weisbrot says he thinks the US is trying to take advantage of this situation. Far from putting a dent in Maduro's credibility, other observers believe that continued tensions between Venezuela and the US serve as a positive for a president whose supporters have come to expect belligerence towards "las imperialistas." "In many ways John Kerry is doing Maduro a favor by not recognizing him," says Jones. "The US's refusal to cooperate plays into the socialists' broader narrative that the US is conspiring to defeat Venezuela's revolution." Others are less convinced by Maduro's bluster, seeing a politician weakened by his lack of mandate at home. "He'd definitely like the US to recognize him," says Gerardo Munck, a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California. "There's nothing he can do to pressure the US, but to be seen as having been duly elected would put him in a far stronger position both at home and internationally." With neither side showing any inclination toward compromise, the standoff between the two countries also shows no sign of ending. But Maduro's long-term challenges are looming. Inflation in the socialist country is nearing 30 percent, there is public anger over the chronic shortages of basic goods, and the ballooning murder rate exceeds Europe and the United States's combined. "Maduro is going to have to tackle these problems if he's going to last as president," says Mr. Munck. "[U]nless there's some change in the way he handles the situation, the US isn't going to budge."
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Baverstock 13 (Alasdair CSM Contributor, “Venezuela's Maduro still waiting on Washington's recognition,” 5-17-13, The Christian Science Monitor)
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More than a month after Venezuela's contested presidential election, President Nicolás Maduro's narrow victory has yet to be recognized by the United States. the US position has led to further political tensions in a relationship historically stressed under the leadership of former President Hugo Chávez Obviously, if there are huge irregularities we are going to have serious questions about the viability of that government," While the US has pledged not to interfere with Venezuelan politics, the refusal to recognize Maduro's presidency has left many to question what message the US is trying to send, and how - if at all - it will impact Venezuela post-Chávez "Maduro is certainly now the president of Venezuela The US's refusal to recognize him is more symbolic than anything else Things haven't been going well for Maduro since the election, A lot of Venezuelans seem to think that a close election is not a valid election, so this leaves room for Maduro's critics to question it the US is trying to take advantage of this situation Others are less convinced by Maduro's bluster, seeing a politician weakened by his lack of mandate at home "He'd definitely like the US to recognize him, There's nothing he can do to pressure the US, but to be seen as having been duly elected would put him in a far stronger position both at home and internationally Maduro's long-term challenges are looming. Inflation in the socialist country is nearing 30 percent, there is public anger over the chronic shortages of basic goods Maduro is going to have to tackle these problems if he's going to last as president
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Maduro popularity low now – US diplomatic recognition of his government gives him the capital to get reforms
| 5,891 | 108 | 1,606 | 930 | 18 | 270 | 0.019355 | 0.290323 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Hyperinflation is looming in Venezuela , with prices suffering their highest monthly rise on record in May, while the economy slides into recession and the popularity of Nicolas Maduro , the new president, wanes. Prices rose 6.1 per cent in May, compared with 1.6 per cent in the same period last year, bringing accumulated inflation for the first five months of 2013 to 19.4 per cent, almost as high as the annual figure for 2012 of 20.1 per cent. The sudden jump in prices, with the 4.3 per cent rise in April already sounding alarms, has triggered fears at Goldman Sachs that Venezuela could be on the brink of hyperinflation, which the US bank defines as seasonally adjusted annualised rates of more than 40 per cent. There is no fixed definition of hyperinflation. The International Accounting Standards Board puts it at a cumulative rate of 100 per cent over three years. At present, the annualised rate of inflation in Venezuela is 35.2 per cent. At the same time, the economy is losing steam, with 0.7 per cent growth registered in the first quarter of 2013, compared with 5.9 per cent growth in the same period last year. Analysts at London-based consultancy Capital Economics suspect Venezuela may already be in recession and forecast that gross domestic product will contract by 1 per cent this year. At the root of the Opec country's economic woes is a tangled web of price and currency controls which, together with problems in the oil industry that supplies 96 per cent of export revenues, have generated a shortage of foreign currency, on which the import-dependent economy relies. That has caused shortages of basic goods including food, aggravating inflation further. Zulia, Venezuela's most populous state, had considered rationing of 20 basic food products but Mr Maduro dismissed the plan as "insane". With stagflation now entrenched, political instability has also racked the country since Mr Maduro's victory by less than 2 percentage points in the mid-April election, a result which an emboldened opposition refuses to recognise. Infighting within the ruling socialist party is also damaging Mr Maduro's popularity. A recent poll by Caracas-based IVAD showed that opposition leader Henrique Capriles would win if the election were held again today. Russ Dallen, managing partner at Caracas Capital Markets, says the problem is that the value of the dollar on the currency black market, the result of a decade of strict controls, has more than tripled in the past three years, making imports more expensive. "If Maduro can find dollars and speed them into the markets, he could turn that situation around. Sadly, the Cubans seem to be running things in the meantime and you end up with Cuban-type solutions like the rationing model in Zulia," he said.
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Mander 13 (Benedict, Financial Times London, “Fears of hyperinflation grip Venezuela,” 5-10-13)
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Hyperinflation is looming in Venezuela , with prices suffering their highest monthly rise while the economy slides into recession and the popularity of Nicolas Maduro wanes. The sudden jump in prices, with the 4.3 per cent rise in April already sounding alarms, At the same time, the economy is losing steam, with 0.7 per cent growth registered in the first quarter of 2013, compared with 5.9 per cent growth in the same period last year At the root of the Opec country's economic woes is a tangled web of price and currency controls which, together with problems in the oil industry that supplies 96 per cent of export revenues have generated a shortage of foreign currency political instability has also racked the country since Mr Maduro's victory by less than 2 percentage points in the mid-April election Infighting within the ruling socialist party is also damaging Mr Maduro's popularity he problem is that the value of the dollar on the currency black market, the result of a decade of strict controls, has more than tripled in the past three years, making imports more expensive If Maduro can find dollars and speed them into the markets, he could turn that situation around
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Plan is key to facilitate Maduro’s economic reform policy, opposition movement prevents action now
| 2,773 | 98 | 1,183 | 458 | 14 | 201 | 0.030568 | 0.438865 |
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For decades, many children in America and other countries went to bed fearing annihilation by nuclear war. The specter of nuclear winter freezing the life out of planet Earth seemed very real. Activists protesting the World Trade Organization's meeting in Seattle apparently have forgotten that threat. The truth is that nations join together in groups like the WTO not just to further their own prosperity, but also to forestall conflict with other nations. In a way, our planet has traded in the threat of a worldwide nuclear war for the benefit of cooperative global economics. Some Seattle protesters clearly fancy themselves to be in the mold of nuclear disarmament or anti-Vietnam War protesters of decades past. But they're not. They're special-interest activists, whether the cause is environmental, labor or paranoia about global government. Actually, most of the demonstrators in Seattle are very much unlike yesterday's peace activists, such as Beatle John Lennon or philosopher Bertrand Russell, the father of the nuclear disarmament movement, both of whom urged people and nations to work together rather than strive against each other. These and other war protesters would probably approve of 135 WTO nations sitting down peacefully to discuss economic issues that in the past might have been settled by bullets and bombs. As long as nations are trading peacefully, and their economies are built on exports to other countries, they have a major disincentive to wage war. That's why bringing China, a budding superpower, into the WTO is so important .As exports to the United States and the rest of the world feed Chinese prosperity, and that prosperity increases demand for the goods we produce, the threat of hostility diminishes. Many anti-trade protesters in Seattle claim that only multinational corporations benefit from global trade, and that it's the everyday wage earners who get hurt. That's just plain wrong. First of all, it's not the military-industrial complex benefiting. It's U.S. companies that make high-tech goods. And those companies provide a growing number of jobs for Americans. In San Diego, many people have good jobs at Qualcomm, Solar Turbines and other companies for whom overseas markets are essential. In Seattle, many of the 100,000 people who work at Boeing would lose their livelihoods without world trade. Foreign trade today accounts for 30 percent of our gross domestic product. That's a lot of jobs for everyday workers. Growing global prosperity has helped counter the specter of nuclear winter. Nations of the world are learning to live and work together, like the singers of anti-war songs once imagined. Those who care about world peace shouldn't be protesting world trade. They should be celebrating it.
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Copley News Service. 1999 [Lexis]
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The specter of nuclear winter freezing the life out of planet Earth seemed very real. Activists protesting the W T O have forgotten that threat The truth is that nations join together in the WTO to forestall conflict with other nations our planet has traded in the threat of a worldwide nuclear war for the benefit of cooperative global economics. Seattle protesters fancy themselves in the mold of nuclear disarmament protesters But they're not most of the demonstrators are very much unlike Russell, the father of the nuclear disarmament movement, who urged people and nations to work together . These protesters would probably approve of 135 WTO nations sitting down peacefully to discuss economic issues that in the past might have been settled by bombs. they have a major disincentive to wage war. That's why the WTO is so important Growing global prosperity has helped counter the specter of nuclear winter. Nations are learning to live and work together Those who care about world peace shouldn't be protesting world trade. They should be celebrating it.
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-- Free trade through the WTO solves nuclear war.
| 2,758 | 49 | 1,062 | 438 | 9 | 175 | 0.020548 | 0.399543 |
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The WTO has also played an important role in facilitating trade liberalization in the rest of the world. Since the late 1940s, barriers against the free flow of goods and capital have been falling, with average global tariffs on manufactured goods down among industrialized countries from an average of more than 40 percent to under 4 percent today. The volume of world merchandise trade today is 16 times the volume in 1950, a rate of growth three times faster than the growth of global output
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Daniel Griswold. 2000. “WTO Membership Good for California, U.S. Economy” [Director of the Center for Trade and Policy Studies @ CATO] http://www.freetrade.org/node/197
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The WTO has also played an important role in facilitating trade liberalization in the rest of the world. Since the late 1940s, barriers against the free flow of goods and capital have been falling The volume of world merchandise trade today is 16 times the volume in 1950, a rate of growth three times faster than the growth of global output
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WTO massively expands free trade.
| 494 | 34 | 341 | 85 | 5 | 61 | 0.058824 | 0.717647 |
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Some anti-globalisers will view any proposal to reform the WTO as ill-conceived. But what are the alternatives? If you want a glimpse into the future of a world with a weakened multilateral system take a look at the content of regional and bilateral trade pacts. Robert Zoellick, the US trade representative, now arrives at international meetings waving the US-Singapore free trade agreement and holding it up as a model for all countries. Its provisions include duty-free market access for US exports, a legal provision prohibiting future import taxes, unrestricted rights of entry and profit repatriation for US investors, and intellectual property rules that make the TRIPS agreement look tame. The US would probably be happy to see the end of the WTO and is busy building a trade empire that projects the realities of its unrivalled power. Witness the creation of a Middle East free-trade zone - and the decision not to allow Egypt entry as punishment for its refusal to support the US case against the EU over genetically modified food. The WTO’s rules are rigged in favour of the strong. Yet abolition is not an option. Apart from removing a source of pressure on the US and the EU to open markets, cut farm subsidies and halt protectionist abuses, it would risk a ruinous spiral of conflict. Rich countries would bulldoze poor ones into deeply unequal trade treaties. The multilateralism of convenience and bilateral power politics that the Bush administration is promoting in other international institutions would prevail. Ultimately, that is in nobody’s interest - Cancun is the place to draw a line in the Mexican sand.
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Kevin Watkins. 2006. Prospect Magazine. http://www.socialistpartyaustralia.org/archives/2003/08/23/cancun-and-world-trade-debate/
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Some anti-globalisers will view any proposal to reform the WTO as ill-conceived. But what are the alternatives regional and bilateral trade pacts. R The WTO’s rules are rigged in favour of the strong. Yet abolition is not an option Rich countries would bulldoze poor ones into deeply unequal trade treaties The multilateralism of convenience and bilateral power politics that the Bush administration is promoting in other international institutions would prevail. U
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Collapse of the WTO means abusive trading practices – captures all their offense.
| 1,630 | 82 | 465 | 269 | 13 | 71 | 0.048327 | 0.263941 |
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Membership in the WTO is not a surrender of U.S. sovereignty but its wise exercise. The WTO encourages the United States to keep its own markets open for the benefit of U.S. consumers and import using industries. WTO membership also promotes trade liberalization abroad, which opens markets and keeps them open for U.S. exporters.
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William Lash and Daniel Griswold. 2000. “WTO Report Card II: An Exercise or Surrender of US Sovereignty?”[Prof of Law @ George Mason +Assoc. Director for Trade and Policy Studies @ CATO] http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/briefs/tbp-009.pdf
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The WTO encourages the United States to keep its own markets open for the benefit of U.S. consumers and import using industries. WTO membership also promotes trade liberalization abroad, which opens markets and keeps them open for U.S. exporters
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The WTO promotes domestic and global free trade.
| 330 | 48 | 245 | 54 | 8 | 39 | 0.148148 | 0.722222 |
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3,311 |
Peace is partly an outcome of two of the most fundamental principles of the trading system: helping trade to flow smoothly, and providing countries with a constructive and fair outlet for dealing with disputes over trade issues. It is also an outcome of the international confidence and cooperation that the system creates and reinforces. History is littered with examples of trade disputes turning into war. One of the most vivid is the trade war of the 1930s when countries competed to raise trade barriers in order to protect domestic producers and retaliate against each others’ barriers. This worsened the Great Depression and eventually played a part in the outbreak of World War 2. Two developments immediately after the Second World War helped to avoid a repeat of the pre-war trade tensions. In Europe, international cooperation developed in coal, and in iron and steel. Globally, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was created. Both have proved successful, so much so that they are now considerably expanded — one has become the European Union, the other the World Trade Organization (WTO)
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World Trade Organization. 2003. “10 Benefits of the World Trade Organization” http://www.wto.org/English/thewto_e/whatis_e/10ben_e/10b01_e.htm
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History is littered with examples of trade disputes turning into war Two developments immediately after the Second World War helped to avoid a repeat of the pre-war trade tensions Globally, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was created. Both have proved successful, so much so that they are now considerably expanded — one has become the European Union, the other the World Trade Organization (WTO
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WTO diffuses trade conflict – prevents outbreak of WW3.
| 1,114 | 55 | 413 | 181 | 9 | 67 | 0.049724 | 0.370166 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,312 |
Could it be that humans are a sort of ‘‘biological error,’’ Chomsky ponders, ‘‘using their allotted 100,000 years to destroy themselves and in the process much else . . . with an assault on the environment that sustains life . . . and with a cold and calculated savagery, on each other as well?’’ [2]. Thus does Chomsky point to the two human-engineered, global ‘‘fires’’ that threaten the life of our planet: the burning of fossil fuels, spurring exponential global warming, and the threat of nuclear war ‘‘fires’’ as a result of militarization, wars of aggression, and the escalation of global conflicts. Both fires can be linked to the competition for ever-shrinking natural resources, and the escalation of such competition through global conflict threatens to create runaway conditions that could bring about global collapse or crash. The consequences of these two ‘‘runaway’’ fires are grave enough to consider the possibility of the complete destruction of human civilization or perhaps the extinction of the human species (as well as all else in the process) within the next 100 years.
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Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Current Affairs – Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, South Korea, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and Possible Extinction of the Human Race”, Futures, 41(1), p. 684)
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global ‘‘fires’’ threaten the life of our planet militarization, wars of aggression, and the escalation of global conflicts linked to competition for ever-shrinking natural and the escalation of such competition through global conflict threatens to create runaway conditions that could bring about global collapse
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Resource shortages cause extinction
| 1,093 | 35 | 313 | 178 | 4 | 44 | 0.022472 | 0.247191 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,313 |
Furthermore, our occupancy of the environment is or threatens to be so complete, our effect on its resources and character so destructive, the possibilities of genetic damage to our own species so real, that the extinction of the human race – perhaps all forms of life – cannot be discounted, especially if the conflicts of interest provoked by competition for critical resources lead to the lunacy of atomic war.
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Coombs 90 (H.C., Economist – Australian Nation University, Return of Scarcity: Strategies for an Economic Future, p. 42)
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occupancy of the environment is so complete, our effect on its resources so destructive, the possibilities of genetic damage so real, that the extinction of all forms of life – cannot be discounted, especially if the conflicts of interest provoked by competition for critical resources lead to the lunacy of atomic war
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Resource scarcity causes nuclear war and extinction
| 413 | 51 | 318 | 69 | 7 | 52 | 0.101449 | 0.753623 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,314 |
“It is clear that most politicians and most citizens do not recognize that returning to “more of the same” is a recipe for promoting the first collapse of a global civilization. The required changes in energy technology, which would benefit not only the environment but also national security, public health, and the economy, would demand a World War II type mobilization -- and even that might not prevent a global climate disaster. Without transitioning away from use of fossil fuels, humanity will move further into an era of resource wars (remember, Africom has been added to the Pentagon’s structure -- and China has noticed), clearly with intent to protect US “interests” in petroleum reserves. The consequences of more resource wars, many likely triggered over water supplies stressed by climate disruption, are likely to include increased unrest in poor nations, a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, widening inequity within and between nations, and in the worst (and not unlikely) case, a nuclear war ending civilization.
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Woolridge 9 (Frosty, Former Officer – US Army Medical Service Corps, “America Galloping Toward Its Greatest Crisis in the 21st Century”, The Examiner, 5-22, http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-3515-Denver-Political-Issues-Examiner~y2009m5d22-America-galloping-toward-its-greatest-crisis-in-the-21st-century)
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“more of the same” is a recipe for promoting the collapse of global civilization The consequences of more resource wars are likely to include increased unrest in poor nations proliferation of w m d widening inequity and a nuclear war ending civilization
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Resource wars cause nuclear war and extinction
| 1,041 | 46 | 253 | 165 | 7 | 42 | 0.042424 | 0.254545 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,315 |
Moscow has an unquestionable head start on the rest of the world, and it is not shy about investing in its ambitions. At least six new icebreakers and Sabetta, a new year-round port on the arctic shores—costing $33 billion—are on the agenda, but Prime Minister Putin has said the Kremlin is “open for a dialogue with our foreign partners and with all our neighbors in the Arctic region, but of course we will defend our own geopolitical interests firmly and consistently.” Or as they said in Soviet times, “What is mine is mine, and what is yours is negotiable.” The Arctic is of vital geopolitical importance not just to Russia, but to the entire world. It has enormous quantities of hydrocarbon energy and other natural resources, and as the Arctic is no longer completely icebound, in summertime it may become an important transportation route vital to U.S. national security. Despite this, at present the U.S. has made virtually no effort to strengthen its position in the frozen final frontier. The chief concern is America’s lack of icebreakers—even Canada and Finland have more than the United States. Icebreakers are vital to exploring the Arctic and enforcing one’s sovereignty there. As of 2010, Russia had 29 icebreakers in total and was building more. The United States had two (including one that is obsolete), with no plans to expand. The Heritage Foundation has exposed this problem extensively: The United States has significant geopolitical and geo-economic interests in the High North, but the lack of policy attention and insufficient funding have placed the U.S. on track to abdicate its national interests in this critical region. The United States must strengthen its position in the Arctic and make its interests clear to friend and foe alike. Washington should reach out to the Arctic Council members to block Russia’s expansion plans at the U.N. Meanwhile, the U.S. should fund and build its icebreaking squadron and deploy it in Alaska. Russia’s Arctic aspirations are a serious geopolitical challenge for U.S. and allied interests. America’s security and economic prosperity in the 21st century will depend on U.S. ability to access polar waters and the Arctic Ocean bed.
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Cohen and Altman 11 (Ariel Cohen, Ph.D. is a Senior Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy at the Heritage Foundation, Anton Altman is a research volunteer at The Heritage Foundation, August 16, 2011, “Russia’s Arctic Claims: Neither LOST nor Forgotten”, http://blog.heritage.org/2011/08/16/russias-arctic-claims-neither-lost-nor-forgotten/)
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Moscow has an unquestionable head start Minister Putin has said the Kremlin will defend our own geopolitical interests firmly The Arctic is of vital geopolitical importance to the entire world It has enormous quantities of hydrocarbon energy and other natural resources and as the Arctic is no longer completely icebound Despite this, at present the U.S. has made virtually no effort to strengthen its position The U S has significant geopolitical and geo-economic interests in the High North the lack of policy attention have placed the U.S. on track to abdicate its national interests in this critical region The U S must strengthen its position in the Arctic America’s security and economic prosperity in the 21st century will depend on U.S. ability to access polar waters and the Arctic Ocean bed.
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Russian drilling in the arctic causes resource conflict
| 2,198 | 55 | 801 | 359 | 8 | 131 | 0.022284 | 0.364903 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,316 |
The unique characteristics of Arctic flora and fauna, which render them perfectly suited to the harsh climate of the far north, also tend to make them peculiarly vulnerable to toxic contamination. n116 Plants in the nutrient-poor climate conserve energy by holding their leaves year-round, which allows sediments from air pollution to build up for years before passing on to grazers. n117 In addition, the short Arctic growing season occurs in the spring, when the snow cover melts and light returns, [*86] so contaminants trapped in the snow are released at exactly the time plants are taking in nutrients. n118 This accelerated intake is especially pronounced in food chains involving shorebound water plants and plankton, as contaminants trapped at river mouths are released close to shore and taken in by the fauna that is most accessible to land mammals and coastal water animals, and thus most likely to join the food chain. n119 These characteristics therefore tend to magnify the contamination of ambient air, land, and water beginning at the most fundamental unit of Arctic food webs. n120 At each step of the food chain, POPs and heavy metals bioaccumulate and concentrations rise. Marine pollution poses particular dangers because marine food chains tend to be the longest, n121 so pollution levels in the ocean are magnified many times over in top-level marine predators. n122 Some high-level predators can accumulate 70,000 times the contaminant concentration of the ambient water, n123 and since northern seas are more heavily polluted than those in other regions the concentrations can reach unprecedented levels. n124 Both marine and terrestrial animals in the Arctic have certain characteristics that facilitate their survival in the harsh environment, but also, incidentally serve to maximize contaminant concentrations. Because of the dearth of nutrients in their diets, animals take longer to store enough energy to reproduce and therefore have low birth rates and are older - and therefore more contaminated - when they do reproduce and pass their contaminant burdens on to their young in utero. n125 In addition, substantial fat reserves are necessary to stay warm and survive the long winters, but also provide the perfect vehicle for lipid-soluble POPs. n126 Arctic people and carnivorous animals preferentially eat fat and fatty tissues for their high energy content, which augments the concentration of contaminants at higher levels of predation. n127
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Hamilton 4 (Sarah R. Hamilton is a class of 2004 candidate for the Juris Doctor degree at the University of Colorado School of Law in Boulder, Colorado. She received a B.A. in History from Duke University, “Toxic Contamination of the Arctic: Thinking Globally and Acting Locally to Protect Arctic Ecosystems and People,” Winter, 2004, 15 COLO. J. INT'L ENVTL. L. & POL'Y 71)
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The unique characteristics of Arctic flora and fauna, which render them perfectly suited to the harsh climate of the far north, also tend to make them peculiarly vulnerable to toxic contamination Plants in the nutrient-poor climate conserve energy by holding their leaves year-round, which allows sediments from air pollution to build up for years before passing on to grazers contaminants trapped in the snow are released at exactly the time plants are taking in nutrients. This accelerated intake is especially pronounced in food chains involving shorebound water plants and plankton These characteristics therefore tend to magnify the contamination of ambient air, land, and water beginning at the most fundamental unit of Arctic food webs At each step of the food chain, POPs and heavy metals bioaccumulate and concentrations rise. marine food chains tend to be the longest so pollution levels in the ocean are magnified many times over in top-level marine predators the concentrations can reach unprecedented levels Because of the dearth of nutrients in their diets, animals take longer to store enough energy to reproduce and therefore have low birth rates and are older - and therefore more contaminated - when they do reproduce and pass their contaminant burdens on to their young in utero Arctic people and carnivorous animals preferentially eat fat and fatty tissues for their high energy content, which augments the concentration of contaminants at higher levels of predation
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Arctic uniquely vulnerable to bioaccumulation of toxins
| 2,477 | 55 | 1,486 | 387 | 7 | 233 | 0.018088 | 0.602067 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
|
3,317 |
It makes us vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Terrorism is a reality of the modern world. Terrorism is not the product of Islam; rather it is the manifestation of a particular political agenda. All terrorist groups in the Middle East share a hatred for Israel, but seldom have major attacks impacting the United States had much to do with our support of Israel. Instead, most of these groups’ grievances relate to the effects of oil policies. Take, for example, the story of the nation’s most wanted terrorist—Osama bin Laden. As an insurgent against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Bin Laden was a de facto U.S. ally, and few dispute the claim that he received support from the CIA. Things changed in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia came under threat. The Saudi royal family turned to the U.S. for assistance. Bin Laden offered to defend the country himself with his mujahedeen fighters but was turned down. After Saddam was expelled from Kuwait, the U.S. stationed as many as 20,000 troops in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other nations surrounding Iraq to contain any future threat. The U.S. response and the ability to assemble a broad international coalition had nothing to do with sympathy for Kuwait or feigned outrage at Saddam Hussein’s audacity to invade a sovereign neighbor. The U.S. and the rest of the world were understandably frightened of the prospect of Saddam controlling over 38 percent of the world’s oil and all of the world’s swing capacity. If he were allowed to control Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, Saddam would have had nearly absolute control over world oil prices. The presence of troops began to breed resentment, especially in Saudi Arabia, where Islamic extremists were particularly insulted by the American presence so close to Islam’s holiest sites. It was the decision to keep U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia that many believe was the critical catalyst that would lead to the September 11 attacks. With U.S. troops set to be in the region seemingly indefinitely, hatred for America and the terrorist attacks that stem from that hatred are not likely to cease.
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Surveyor 10 [American Surveyor, expert researchers on hydrocarbon depletion, August 8th, 2010, “Seven Dangerous Side Effects of US Dependence on Foreign Oil” http://peakoil.com/production/seven-dangerous-side-effects-of-the-u-s-dependency-on-foreign-oil/]
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It makes us vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Terrorism is a reality of the modern world most of these groups’ grievances relate to the effects of oil policies the story of the nation’s most wanted terrorist—Osama bin Laden in Laden was a de facto U.S. ally, and few dispute the claim that he received support from the CIA. Things changed in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia came under threat. The Saudi royal family turned to the U.S. for assistance. Bin Laden offered to defend the country himself with his mujahedeen fighters but was turned down. After Saddam was expelled from Kuwait, the U.S. stationed as many as 20,000 troops in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and other nations surrounding Iraq to contain any future threat. The U.S. response and the ability to assemble a broad international coalition had nothing to do with sympathy for Kuwait or feigned outrage at Saddam Hussein’s audacity to invade a sovereign neighbor. The U.S. and the rest of the world were understandably frightened of the prospect of Saddam controlling over 38 percent of the world’s oil and all of the world’s swing capacity. . The presence of troops began to breed resentment, especially in Saudi Arabia, where Islamic extremists were particularly insulted by the American presence so close to Islam’s holiest sites. It was the decision to keep U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia that many believe was the critical catalyst that would lead to the September 11 attacks. With U.S. troops set to be in the region seemingly indefinitely, hatred for America and the terrorist attacks that stem from that hatred are not likely to cease
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Dependence on Middle Eastern oil fuels Terrorism
| 2,119 | 48 | 1,623 | 353 | 7 | 272 | 0.01983 | 0.770538 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
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Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,318 |
Depending on volatile countries in the Middle East for oil poses a threat to national security, Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, said Wednesday evening, April 5, during a Global Agenda series lecture at UD. “The reality is most of the world's oil is concentrated in areas and countries that are unstable, corrupt, dictatorial and, in some cases, deeply resentful of the United States,” he said. “Seventy-one percent of the world's oil reserves are in the hands of Muslim countries at a time in which our relationship with the Muslim world is at an all-time low.” In his lecture, Luft said lack of oil in the U.S. increases its dependency on other countries. Although the U.S. possesses only 3 percent of the world's oil, it consumes 25 percent. Luft, co-chairperson of the Set America Free Coalition, said the U.S. is supporting terrorism by paying Middle Eastern countries for their oil. “We are funding those countries that are the richest proliferators of radical Islam,” he said. “We are fighting the war on terrorism, and we are paying for both sides of the war. On one hand, we are sending our troops and daughters all over the world to fight for freedom and democracy. At the same time, every time we arrive into a gas station, we end up sending dollars and cents to those who don't like us.” Luft: “Sixty percent of our oil is coming from abroad, and this figure is growing by the day.” Luft said the U.S. cannot win the war on terror while relying so heavily on the Middle East. “I do not think we can meet these goals as long as we are dependent on oil, to the degree that we are today,” he said. “Sixty percent of our oil is coming from abroad, and this figure is growing by the day.” Luft said terrorists are targeting the U.S. through oil pipeline sabotage. More than 1.5 billion barrels of oil have been lost as a result of sabotage. Luft also said the U.S. could be exhausting the reserve of cheap oil and that oil prices could rise in the next five years. The U.S. needs to find alternatives to oil, Luft said. Instead of gasoline, flexible fuels--such as ethanol, methane and electricity--can be used to power cars, he said. Noting that it could take 20 years to replace an oil-dependent economy, Luft said that it is critical to the country's safety and prosperity to begin the transformation now. “Everyday we delay the beginning of the process is one more day, in the future, we will have to be under severe adversity,” he said. Luft said the U.S. should take the lead in lessening its dependence on oil and that other countries will follow.
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Parmley 6 (Julia Parmley-writes for University of Delaware newspaper, April 6 2006, "U.S must end dependency on oil, experts say," http://www.udel.edu/PR/UDaily/2006/apr/global040606.html).
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Depending on volatile countries in the Middle East for oil poses a threat to national security Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, said most of the world's oil is concentrated in areas and countries that are unstable, corrupt, dictatorial and deeply resentful of the United States Seventy-one percent of the world's oil reserves are in the hands of Muslim countries at a time in which our relationship with the Muslim world is at an all-time low.” “We are funding those countries that are the richest proliferators of radical Islam We are fighting the war on terrorism, and we are paying for both sides of the war. the U.S. cannot win the war on terror while relying so heavily on the Middle East. More than 1.5 billion barrels of oil have been lost as a result of sabotage. the U.S. could be exhausting the reserve of cheap oil and that oil prices could rise in the next five years. The U.S. needs to find alternatives to oil it is critical to the country's safety and prosperity to begin the transformation now.
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Reducing Middle East Oil Dependence is key to solve Terrorism
| 2,609 | 61 | 1,054 | 463 | 10 | 185 | 0.021598 | 0.399568 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,319 |
The September 11, 2001 attacks demonstrated the danger that terrorism emanating from the Middle East can pose to the United States. Almost 3,000 people died on that day because of the hatred and machinations of the people of the region, not their governments. Today, much of this danger goes beyond the Middle East as traditionally defined and includes South Asia, Southeast Asia, parts of Africa, and Europe. The Middle East, however, remains the heart of much of the problem and this is likely to remain an issue in the future. The jihadists have proven skilled in blaming the region's many problems on the United States. Bin Ladin's message -- that the United States, as opposed to regional regimes, was responsible for the economic and political problems of the region -- had at best limited penetration in the Middle East, even as late as September 2001. But the Iraq war and the plunging popularity of the United States have made Bin Ladin's arguments credible to increasing numbers of people in the Middle East. The numbers of recruits and supporters of terrorist movements have grown since September 11. It is possible that several Middle Eastern terrorist groups may shift their focus from local regimes to the United States in the coming years. In Iraq, such a mix of antiregime and anti-U.S. terrorism has already demonstrated its lethality. Thus far, groups like the Palestinian HAMAS or the Armed Islamic Group of Algeria have concentrated on local regimes, not on killing Americans. Should these fighters embrace Bin Ladin's call for striking at the United States, it would greatly add to the cadre and network of the anti-U.S. jihadists. Parts of the Algerian Islamist militant community have already moved toward embracing a broader, more global agenda. Regimes in the Middle East have so far kept a lid on terrorism and dissent primarily through repression. As long as the regimes remain relatively strong, this remains a viable if brutal approach. Should the legitimacy crisis grow more extreme in countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, violent radicals will have far more opportunities to recruit and carry out operations.
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Byman 05 (Daniel, Dir – Center for Peace and Security Studies – Georgetown U., FDCH, 9-8, Lexis)
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September 11, demonstrated the danger that terrorism emanating from the Middle East can pose to the United States The Middle East remains the heart of much of the problem and this is likely to remain an issue in the future. . The numbers of recruits and supporters of terrorist movements have grown since September 11. It is possible that several Middle Eastern terrorist groups may shift their focus from local regimes to the United States in the coming years Regimes in the Middle East have so far kept a lid on terrorism and dissent primarily through repression
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Middle East terrorism goes global
| 2,141 | 33 | 564 | 351 | 5 | 97 | 0.014245 | 0.276353 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
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Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,320 |
Although human pathogens are often lumped with nuclear explosives and lethal chemicals as potential weapons of mass destruction, there is an obvious, fundamentally important difference: Pathogens are alive, weapons are not. Nuclear and chemical weapons do not reproduce themselves and do not independently engage in adaptive behavior; pathogens do both of these things. That deceptively simple observation has immense implications. The use of a manufactured weapon is a singular event. Most of the damage occurs immediately. The aftereffects, whatever they may be, decay rapidly over time and distance in a reasonably predictable manner. Even before a nuclear warhead is detonated, for instance, it is possible to estimate the extent of the subsequent damage and the likely level of radioactive fallout. Such predictability is an essential component for tactical military planning. The use of a pathogen, by contrast, is an extended process whose scope and timing cannot be precisely controlled. For most potential biological agents, the predominant drawback is that they would not act swiftly or decisively enough to be an effective weapon. But for a few pathogens - ones most likely to have a decisive effect and therefore the ones most likely to be contemplated for deliberately hostile use - the risk runs in the other direction. A lethal pathogen that could efficiently spread from one victim to another would be capable of initiating an intensifying cascade of disease that might ultimately threaten the entire world population. The 1918 influenza epidemic demonstrated the potential for a global contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.
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Steinbruner 97 (John, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and Sydney Stein, Jr. chair in international security and vice chair of the committee on international security and arms control of the National Academy of Sciences, "Biological weapons: a plague upon all houses." Foreign Policy)
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Although pathogens are lumped with weapons of mass destruction, there is a fundamentally important difference: Pathogens are alive, weapons are not. Nuclear and chemical weapons do not reproduce themselves and engage in adaptive behavior; pathogens do both of these use of a manufactured weapon is a singular event. aftereffects decay rapidly in a reasonably predictable manner. use of a pathogen is an extended process cannot be controlled. predominant drawback is that they would not act swiftly But for a few pathogens risk runs in the other direction. A lethal pathogen could spread from one victim to another initiating an intensifying cascade of disease that might threaten the entire world population.
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A bioterror attack is the most likely risk for extinction- its effects cannot be predicted making response impossible and spread immediate
| 1,662 | 138 | 708 | 257 | 21 | 110 | 0.081712 | 0.428016 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
|
3,321 |
The first major question here is therefore how difficult is it for a terrorist group to obtain or manufacture significant quantities of bioagents? Certainly it would be much easier for a terrorist group to accomplish this than manu-facture an operational nuclear weapon. Indeed, the skills, materials and other resources necessary to manufacture biological agents are nowhere near as difficult as the nuclear weapons case. The various bio-toxins themselves, such as the three illustrated in Table 7.2, are well known. Anthrax, for example, has been around for centuries and is no state secret. 26 The bio-technology by which anthrax spores can be reproduced into the quantities needed for a bio-weapon is neither secret nor exceedingly difficult. In short, it would be possible for a dedicated terrorist group to manufacture several kilograms of anthrax spores for a weapon, either outside the target nation or at a covert facility inside the target nation. The specific laboratory technolo-gies needed are common to the pharmaceutical industry and the dairy indus-try, and are not the subject of international controls and are in fact readily available on the world market. Common laboratory supplies can be easily obtained from commercial suppliers or from the internet, and are largely uncontrolled, unregulated and unknown. A terrorist group could easily con-struct a substantial laboratory with equipment and supplies purchased anonymously.
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Wagner 06 (Abraham R. Wagner, JD, PhD, Adjunct Professor in the School of International and Public Affairs at Colombia, Countering Terrorism and WMD: Creating a Global Counter-Terrorism Network, Ed. Peter Kotana, Michael Intriligator, and John P. Sullivan, 2006, pg. 124)
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how difficult is it for a terrorist group to obtain or manufacture significant quantities of bioagents it would be much easier for a terrorist group to accomplish this than manu-facture an operational nuclear weapon bio-toxins are well known it would be possible for a dedicated terrorist group to manufacture several kilograms of anthrax spores for a weapon laboratory technolo-gies needed are common to the pharmaceutical industry and the dairy indus-try, and are not the subject of international controls Common laboratory supplies can be easily obtained from commercial suppliers or from the internet,
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Easy for terrorists to create bioweapons
| 1,445 | 40 | 605 | 219 | 6 | 92 | 0.027397 | 0.420091 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,322 |
Alterman: There are two issues. First I don’t think people appreciate how much we do with Saudi Arabia. It’s just not understanding the importance of Saudi Arabia to the U.S. in a myriad of ways. It’s not just energy. It’s not just security. It comes to economic issues, counterterrorism issues, regional diplomacy issues. There’s a centrality and importance to Saudi Arabia that I think most Americans don’t have an appreciation for.
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Alterman 5/22/08 (Jon, Director of Middle East Program @ CSIS, "Understanding Saudi-US Relations: A Conversation with Jon Alterman," http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/articles/2008/interviews/080521-alterman-interview.html)
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I don’t think people appreciate how much we do with Saudi Arabia It’s not just energy It comes to economic issues, counterterrorism issues, regional diplomacy issues.
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Oil isn’t key to the US-Saudi relationship
| 434 | 43 | 166 | 71 | 7 | 26 | 0.098592 | 0.366197 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,323 |
Jon B. Alterman: What’s striking is just how rich the US-Saudi relationship is. It’s not just an energy relationship. It’s not just a security relationship. It has to do with virtually everything the U.S. does in the Middle East. The relationship has gone from being a comfortable relationship to one with considerable sensitivities on both sides, and many more sensitivities in public than officials have in private.
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Alterman 5/22/08 (Jon, Director of Middle East Program @ CSIS, "Understanding Saudi-US Relations: A Conversation with Jon Alterman," http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/articles/2008/interviews/080521-alterman-interview.html)
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What’s striking is just how rich the US-Saudi relationship is. It’s not just an energy relationship It has to do with virtually everything the U.S. does in the Middle East. The relationship has gone from being a comfortable relationship to one with considerable sensitivities on both sides, and many more sensitivities in public than officials have in private.
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Energy doesn’t control the US-Saudi relationship AND there are considerable differences on both sides
| 417 | 102 | 360 | 67 | 14 | 58 | 0.208955 | 0.865672 |
Venezuela Affirmative - Emory 2013.html5
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Emory (ENDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,324 |
Cuba is changing. Raul Castro, 81, who took over as president from his ailing brother Fidel, 86, in 2008, has introduced laws enabling Cubans to set up small businesses, hire staff and pay what they want. Previously, everyone worked for the state and salaries were limited to a meagre $20 ((EURO)15) a month. This being Cuba, Raul cannot bring himself to utter the "c" word - capitalismo. Instead, he insists he is "welcoming socialist entrepreneurs into the broader nonstate sector". In the sunscorched streets around the Capitolio in central Havana, meanwhile, Marie-Helena Barrios hawks glittery bras, nail polish and guayabera, traditional linen shirts. On the tree-lined Prado, Jorge Martorell, a budding estate agent, offers homes for sale at (EURO)10,000 to (EURO)300,000. It's not hard to explain Cubans' new-found passion for the once-reviled art of making money. The economy has collapsed. Wages are less than half their 1989 level in real terms. Unemployment is officially a record 3.8% but judging by the number of people on the streets in Havana, the real figure is much higher. Food production has withered. Fifty years ago, the largest, most fertile country in the Caribbean grew one-third of the world's sugar. Today, Cuba imports more than half of its food, including sugar, at a cost of almost $2bn a year, forcing its balance of payments into the red. The country only functions at all thanks to a sweetheart deal with Venezuela. Havana supplies about 50,000 doctors and intelligence and security experts to Caracas. In return, Caracas provides cheap oil - 115,000 barrels a day, about two-thirds of Cuba's consumption, worth some $3.5bn a year. Additional investment takes Venezuela's overall support for Cuba to about $5bn a year. The deal was agreed by Fidel Castro and former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, who died in March. If Venezuela's new president, Nicolas Maduro, renegotiates the agreement - and many analysts say that with Venezula's economy slumping he has no choice - Cuba will grind to a halt.
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Arlidge 13 (John, The Sunday Times, London, “Viva la revolucion: Cuba turns capitalist; Raul Castro, Fidel's brother, hopes that a liberalised private sector will prevent economic collapse,” 5-13-13)
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Cuba is changing This being Cuba, Raul cannot bring himself to utter the "c" word - capitalismo It's not hard to explain Cubans' new-found passion for the once-reviled art of making money. The economy has collapsed Food production has withered . Today, Cuba imports more than half of its food forcing its balance of payments into the red The country only functions at all thanks to a sweetheart deal with Venezuela In return, Caracas provides cheap oil - 115,000 barrels a day, about two-thirds of Cuba's consumption, worth some $3.5bn a year. Additional investment takes Venezuela's overall support for Cuba to about $5bn a year
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Venezuelan economic strength key to Cuban Stability
| 2,032 | 51 | 629 | 329 | 7 | 105 | 0.021277 | 0.319149 |
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In Africa, the administration engaged to ensure a legitimate transfer of power in Cote d'Ivoire, supported the independence of South Sudan, and remains actively involved in resolving the issues between Sudan and South Sudan. In the Americas, we see vibrant democracies in countries from Mexico to Brazil and Costa Rica to Chile. We have also seen historic peaceful transfers of power in places like El Salvador and Uruguay. Yet despite the region's democratic progress, stark inequalities in political and economic power endure. We will continue to press for more transparent and accountable governance. And we will promote greater freedom in Cuba and Venezuela until all their citizens enjoy the universal rights they deserve. Under President Obama, we have undertaken the most significant efforts in decades to engage the Cuban people. We have focused on the importance of the family ties between Cuban Americans and their relatives still living under oppression. Because of steps the President has taken, it is now possible for Cuban Americans to visit and support their families in Cuba, and to send remittances that reduce the Cuban people's dependence on the Cuban state. We have taken additional steps to bolster Cuban civil society, expanding purposeful exchanges that bolster independent religious groups on the island and enhancing the free flow of information to, from, and among the Cuban people. Going forward we will continue to support the Cuban people's desire to freely determine their own future.
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DNC 12 (Democratic National Committee, “2012 Democratic National Platform: Moving America Forward” 2012, http://www.democrats.org/democratic-national-platform)
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In the Americas, we see vibrant democracies in countries from Mexico to Brazil and Costa Rica to Chile We will continue to press for more transparent and accountable governance. And we will promote greater freedom in Cuba and Venezuela until all their citizens enjoy the universal rights they deserve. We have taken additional steps to bolster Cuban civil society, expanding purposeful exchanges that bolster independent religious groups on the island
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Democrats support engaging Venezuela
| 1,514 | 36 | 451 | 238 | 4 | 70 | 0.016807 | 0.294118 |
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PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's Feb. 1-4 World Affairs poll finds Republicans and Democrats differ in their overall views of many nations around the world. Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to favorably rate Israel, Afghanistan, and Iraq, while Democrats are much more positive about France, Venezuela, and Mexico. Republicans' ratings of Iraq and Afghanistan have declined over the past year, and their ratings of Mexico have been lower over the past two years than at any other point since 2001. Ratings of France among Democrats are at their highest point since the Iraq war began, but are lower and have been relatively steady among Republicans in recent years. Republicans and Democrats show only modest variation in their views of North Korea and Iran.
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Carroll 7 (Joseph, “Republicans' and Democrats' Ratings of Nations,” 2-27-07, http://www.gallup.com/poll/26659/republicans-democrats-ratings-nations.aspx)
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World Affairs poll finds Republicans and Democrats differ in their overall views of many nations around the world Democrats are much more positive about France, Venezuela, and Mexico
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Democrats are positively disposed towards Venezuela
| 766 | 52 | 182 | 124 | 6 | 28 | 0.048387 | 0.225806 |
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Architects of engagement strategies have a wide variety of incentives from which to choose. Economic engagement might offer tangible incentives such as export credits, investment insurance or promotion, access to technology, loans, and economic aid.’2 Other equally useful economic incentives involve the removal of penalties, whether they be trade embargoes, investment bans, or high tariffs that have impeded economic relations between the United States and the target country. In addition, facilitated entry into the global economic arena and the institutions that govern it rank among the most potent incentives in today’s global market.’
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Haass 00 – Richard Haass & Meghan O’Sullivan, Senior Fellows in the Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program, Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign Policy, p. 5-6
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Architects of engagement strategies have a wide variety of incentives from which to choose. Economic engagement might offer tangible incentives such as export credits, investment insurance or promotion, access to technology, loans, and economic aid Other incentives involve the removal of penalties, whether they be trade embargoes, investment bans, or high tariffs In addition, facilitated entry into the global economic arena and the institutions that govern it rank among the most potent incentives
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This is only tangible trade and financial benefits --- including political, military, or cultural engagement explodes the topic
| 642 | 127 | 501 | 93 | 18 | 73 | 0.193548 | 0.784946 |
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Scholars have limited the concept of engagement in a third way by unnecessarily restricting the scope of the policy. In their evaluation of post-Cold War US engagement of China, Paul Papayoanou and Scott Kastner define engagement as the attempt to integrate a target country into the international order through promoting "increased trade and financial transactions."(n21) However, limiting engagement policy to the increasing of economic interdependence leaves out many other issue areas that were an integral part of the Clinton administration's China policy, including those in the diplomatic, military and cultural arenas. Similarly, the US engagement of North Korea, as epitomized by the 1994 Agreed Framework pact, promises eventual normalization of economic relations and the gradual normalization of diplomatic relations.(n22) Equating engagement with economic contacts alone risks neglecting the importance and potential effectiveness of contacts in noneconomic issue areas.
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Resnick 1 – Dr. Evan Resnick, Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yeshiva University, “Defining Engagement”, Journal of International Affairs, Spring, 54(2), Ebsco
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Scholars have limited the concept of engagement Papayoanou and Kastner define engagement as the attempt to integrate a target country through promoting "increased trade and financial transactions." However, limiting engagement policy to the increasing of economic interdependence leaves out many other issue areas including those in the diplomatic, military and cultural arenas
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Voting issue for limits and ground --- non-economic areas are huge, overstretch research burdens and require completely different strategies --- trade and finance allow sufficient flexibility but lock-in a core mechanism for preparation
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In this chapter we shall disregard the punishment aspect and be interested in sanctions only as a way of making other international actors comply, and we shall concentrate on negative sanctions. As a reference for a more complete discussion, however, the following dimensions for classifying sanctions may be useful:
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Galtung 83 – Johan, Professor at the Institut Universitaire d’Etudes du Développement, Geneva, Dilemmas of Economic Coercion: Sanctions in World Politics, Eds: Nincic & Wallensteenp, p. 20-21
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As a reference for a more complete discussion, however, the following dimensions for classifying sanctions may be useful:
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Communication sanctions are non-economic
| 316 | 40 | 121 | 49 | 4 | 18 | 0.081633 | 0.367347 |
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The UN Charter, Article 41, specifies what measures the UN can employ against countries that presuppose a threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression. Such measures may include the complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communications, and the severance of diplomatic relations. From this legal basis, four types of sanctions are available (Marks 1999): (1) economic sanctions, (2) arms embargoes, (3) the severance of communications, and (4) international criminal prosecution. In this study, we surveyed 87 MBA students from a university during summer and spring 2005 to evaluate a number of major issues on economic sanctions. The graduate students were asked to indicate their degree of agreement or disagreement with each of the above four types of sanctions. In addition, we asked the respondents to identify their gender, nationality, and age. The breakdowns of the respondents to these questions are as follows: female, 33 percent; male, 67 percent; American, 69 percent; non-American, 31 percent; and with an age range from 21 to 49, averaging 33 years.
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Whitty 7 – Michael Whitty, Professor of Management at the University of Detroit Mercy, et al., Economic Sanctions Against a Nuclear North Korea: An Analysis of United States and United Nations Actions Since 1950, Ed. Kim and Chang, p. 76
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The UN Charter specifies what measures the UN can employ against countries From this legal basis, four types of sanctions are available (1) economic sanctions, (2) arms embargoes, (3) the severance of communications, and (4) international criminal prosecution
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Communications bans are distinct from economic sanctions
| 1,167 | 56 | 259 | 184 | 7 | 38 | 0.038043 | 0.206522 |
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Before suggesting some ways in which economic diplomacy could be seen as a distinct branch of diplomacy it is helpful to limit the scope of the term by saying what it is not. Our definition of economic diplomacy does not include the use of economic leverage, either in the form of sanctions or inducement, in the pursuit of specific political or strategic goals. This we would define as sanctions or perhaps economic statecraft.2 Economic diplomacy is about the creation and distribution of the economic benefits from international economic relations. Clearly political and strategic interests will be a factor in economic negotiations, whether in terms of promoting a liberal, capitalist world order or in choosing negotiating partners tor trade agreements. 'I he conclusion of a trade or economic agreement can be seen as a means of promoting economic stability, growth, and employment and thus political stability in a country, such as in the countries of North Africa that have undergone reform since the spring of 2011. But the means remain the economic agreement, the substance of which will be shaped by a range of domestic sectoral and other interests. In other words, political objectives will not infrequently be a factor in decisions to initiate negotiations, but the concrete agenda, content, and conduct of the negotiations will be largely determined by economic factors and interests. We include international environment negotiations in our definition of economic diplomacy because of the close interdependence between economic and environmental objectives. By extension we also see economic diplomacy as an integrated part of a grand strategy combining political, military, and economic relations.
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Woolcock 13 – Stephen Woolcock, Lecturer in International Relations at The London School of Economics, and Sir Nicholas Bayne, Fellow at the International Trade Policy Unit of the London School of Economics, The Oxford Handbook of Modern Diplomacy, p. 387
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Before suggesting some ways in which economic diplomacy could be seen as a distinct branch of diplomacy it is helpful to limit the scope of the term by saying what it is not
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“Economic” engagement broadly establishes the framework for individual transactions --- targeting specific exports/imports makes the plan “commercial”
| 1,713 | 150 | 173 | 265 | 17 | 33 | 0.064151 | 0.124528 |
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Conceptually, it is also possible to distinguish between 'economic' and 'commercial' diplomacy or, in another sense, the 'high' and 'low' politics of a country's international economic relations. In this chapter, economic diplomacy refers to the ways and means by which the South African government formally negotiates South Africa's place in the world economy at bilateral, regional and multilateral levels. Economic diplomacy has clear political economy objectives such as increasing the country's relative power or influence in international bargains: improving the country's (or an industry's) competitive advantage relative to others; and using political tools to achieve economic ends, and vice versa. Economic diplomacy thus encapsulates global policy-making processes, for example, in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UIMCTAD). the World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Intellectual Property Organization (W1PO); as well as regional economic policymaking In the African Union <AU), the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU).a
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Vickers 12 – Dr. Brendan Vickers, Research Associate on Global Economy and Development at the Institute for Global Dialogue, South African Foreign Policy Review, Volume 1, Ed. Landsberg and Van Wyk, p. 112-113
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Conceptually, it is possible to distinguish between 'economic' and 'commercial' diplomacy or the 'high' and 'low' politics of international economic relations economic diplomacy refers to the ways by which government formally negotiates place in the world economy at bilateral, regional and multilateral levels. Economic diplomacy has clear political economy objectives such as increasing relative power or influence improving the country's competitive advantage and using political tools to achieve economic ends, and vice versa
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“Commercial” and “economic” engagement are conceptually distinct --- the plan’s only commerce
| 1,114 | 93 | 529 | 154 | 12 | 73 | 0.077922 | 0.474026 |
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Economic sanctions are economic measures directed to political objectives. They are normally supplemented by other measures, such as the severance or restriction of diplomatic and cultural ties; but unless otherwise stated the use of the term ' sanctions ' in this paper refers only to economic sanctions. Sanctions are sometimes employed in addition to force, but here we are primarily considering situations short of war. Not that the distinction is always easy to draw-many Arab states have, for example, imposed sanctions against Israel, but they see these sanctions as the economic dimension of a wider war effort.
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Barber 79 – James, Professor of Political Science at the Open University, International Affairs, 55(3), July, JStor, p. 367
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Economic sanctions are economic measures directed to political objectives. They are normally supplemented by other measures, such as the severance or restriction of cultural ties; but unless otherwise stated the use of the term ' sanctions ' in this paper refers only to economic sanctions
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Increasing cultural ties is non-economic
| 619 | 40 | 289 | 97 | 5 | 45 | 0.051546 | 0.463918 |
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For the purposes of this thesis commercial diplomacy is defined as the use of diplomatic means to support commercial activities between countries aiming at a national competitive advantage, including export, investment, and technological transfer promotion. Whereas commercial diplomacy seems to become more and more important, the body of literature on the subject is rather limited, as discussed in Kostecki and Naray (2007). It “fails to identify, explain and understand […] the increased influence of private interests in diplomacy” (Lee & Hudson, 2004:348), which is of growing interest to companies.
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Reuvers 12 – Shirin Reuvers, Masters in Management and Governance at University of Twente, “Research on Commercial Diplomacy: Review and Implications”, July, http://essay.utwente.nl/61817/1/2012-07_MSc_SIMReuvers.pdf
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commercial diplomacy is defined as the use of diplomatic means to support commercial activities including export, investment, and technological transfer promotion
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Using diplomatic means makes the plan “commercial” engagement, not “economic”
| 605 | 77 | 162 | 89 | 10 | 21 | 0.11236 | 0.235955 |
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Engagement can have different meanings for the actors concerned and has often been used as an antonym to isolation and containment without clear definition of the obligations for the parties concerned. Engagement should not be confused with dialogue, which is compatible with isolation, and according to which economic and political interaction would be reduced to the minimum. Cold war dialogue between the United States and the Soviet Union was intended to resolve particular issues, such as the stability of the strategic nuclear balance, but otherwise was not intended to change either one of the parties. Engagement, however, involves not only regular dialogue but incentives for the target state to change its policies or behavior in desired ways. Those incentives might include the promise of extensive economic aid and investment, humanitarian assistance to alleviate famine and disease, as well as assurances of the target state's security, which might be incorporated in a nonaggression pact or a treaty. The critical issue is how an engagement policy would be related to a target state's nuclear program. Engagement may entail the offering of incentives for the target state to accept international monitoring of its nuclear program, or to surrender it entirely. In this sense engagement may come in three forms: The first is conditional engagement, in which the incentives would follow after the target state has agreed to and accepted international monitoring, or has agreed to dismantle its nuclear program; the second is staged engagement, when the benefits would he offered in phases in response to the dismantling of the nuclear program, which would follow a previously agreed schedule; the third is unconditional engagement, when the target state would receive the benefits first, and then as a product of a general improvement in relations would later surrender its nuclear program.
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Buszynski 9 – Dr. Leszek Buszynski, Visiting Fellow at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Professor of International Relations in the Graduate School of International Relations at the International University of Japan, Engagement with North Korea: A Viable Alternative, Ed. Kim, p. 100-101
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Engagement has often been used as an antonym to isolation and containment Engagement should not be confused with dialogue, which is compatible with isolation Engagement, however, involves not only regular dialogue but incentives for the target state to change its policies or behavior in desired ways. Those incentives might include the promise of extensive economic aid and investment, humanitarian assistance as well as assurances of security, which might be a nonaggression pact
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Dialogue alone isn’t “engagement” --- topical plans must also provide tangible economic incentives
| 1,901 | 98 | 481 | 296 | 13 | 72 | 0.043919 | 0.243243 |
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The nature of these goals will be discussed later but it will be useful, at the outset, to distinguish economic coercion (as defined here) from economic warfare. Although the boundary between the two is admittedly fluid, in the latter case economic privations are imposed with a military objective, i.e., to weaken the target’s capacity to wage war. The bombing of an enemy’s industrial installations could be a valid example but, in most cases, economic warfare would involve purely economic actions directed to a military objective. Cutting vital exports to the adversary is probably the major form of economic warfare. Shutting out the other side’s imports or, for example, preemptive buying on world markets of goods needed for his war effort, are other methods. Since Napoleon’s Continental Blockade, economic war has generally occurred in tandem with acute military rivalries.
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Nincic & Wallensteen 83 – Miroslav, Associate Professor of Politics at NYU; Peter, Director of the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University, Sweden, Dilemmas of Economic Coercion: Sanctions in World Politics, p. 3-4
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it will be useful, at the outset, to distinguish economic coercion from economic warfare. Although the boundary between the two is admittedly fluid, in the latter case economic privations are imposed with a military objective, economic war has generally occurred in tandem with acute military rivalries
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Sanctions with military goals are “economic warfare” – not economic coercion
| 882 | 76 | 302 | 138 | 11 | 46 | 0.07971 | 0.333333 |
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In making influence attempts foreign policy makers may choose from among a wide variety of alternative ways to promote their goals. Foreign policy “tools,” “means,” “instruments,” “levers,” and “techniques” all refer to the policy options available to decision makers in pursuing a given set of objectives; and these terms will here be used interchangeably. To reduce the multitude of techniques of statecraft to manageable proportions, a classification scheme that facilitates reference to broad categories of statecraft is useful. The selection of a particular taxonomy, however, is not a purely arbitrary undertaking, but rather should proceed according to specified criteria. The criteria employed here are as follows: 1. Conformity with scientific canons requiring parallel categories to be mutually exclusive and exhaustive of all cases. 2. Avoidance of unnecessary departures from common usage. Ideally, categories would be consistent with common usage by laymen, academics, and policy makers. 3. Utility in identifying and clarifying policy options for modern statesmen. The important thing is to capture the richness and variety of available techniques without overwhelming the policy maker with a huge number of categories. Some scholars reduce all techniques of statecraft to two categories— war and diplomacy. Both Raymond Aron and Hans Morgenthau illustrate this tendency to use “diplomacy” to refer to all the means of conducting relations with other states short of war. While such an approach may be reasonably consistent with the first two criteria, it is seriously deficient in terms of the third criterion. It is simply not very helpful to present a policy maker with only two sets of options. Even the busiest statesman is likely to regard such categorization as overly simple and not especially useful. The trick is to give the policy maker a set of alternatives that is simple enough to be readily understood yet complex enough to call attention to alternatives that might otherwise be ignored. Charles F. Hermann has developed a taxonomy of foreign policy instruments based on eight categories: diplomatic, domestic political, military, intelligence, economic, scientific/technological, promotive, and natural resources. Although this thought-provoking list is more useful than the simple dichotomy suggested by Aron and Morgenthau, some of the categories are not mutually exclusive (e.g., “economic” and “natural resources”); and, more importantly, this taxonomy may involve too many categories to be useful to a policy maker. Bewildering complexity is as undesirable as oversimplification. If common usage is a desirable characteristic, an old taxonomy may be more useful than a more recent one, since there has been more time for such categories to become accepted. Harold Lasswell’s classic work, Politics: Who Gets What, When, How, sets forth a classification scheme that seems well suited to the study of policy instruments. In a “postscript” to this book written in 1958, Lasswell suggests that his “fourfold division of policy instruments is particularly convenient when the external relations of a group are considered: information, diplomacy, economics, force (words, deals, goods, weapons).” Lasswell’s formulation provides the basis for the following taxonomy of techniques of statecraft employed in this book: 1. Propaganda refers to influence attempts relying primarily on the deliberate manipulation of verbal symbols. 2. Diplomacy refers to influence attempts relying primarily on negotiation. 3. Economic statecraft refers to influence attempts relying primarily on resources which have a reasonable semblance of a market price in terms of money. (This category will be developed in chapter 3.) 4. Military statecraft refers to influence attempts relying primarily on violence, weapons, or force. Mutual influence attempts by states, of course, will often involve varying degrees of more than one of these elements; but in most cases it is possible to make a reasonable judgment as to the primary basis of the influence attempt. Words, for example, are often involved in diplomatic, economic, and military statecraft; but that does not mean that all such influence attempts must be classified as propaganda. As in all classification schemes, borderline cases exist that require the analyst to make judgments. With a reasonable amount of imagination and judgment the requirements that categories be mutually exclusive and that they exhaust all cases can be satisfied, at least adequately if not perfectly.
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Baldwin 85 – David A., Professor of World Order Studies and Political Science at Colombia, Economic Statecraft, p. 12-14
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policy makers may choose from among a wide variety of alternative ways to promote their goals To reduce the multitude of techniques of statecraft to manageable proportions, a classification scheme is useful The selection of a particular taxonomy, however, is not a purely arbitrary undertaking The criteria employed here are requiring parallel categories to be mutually exclusive and exhaustive of all cases Avoidance of unnecessary departures from common usage Utility in identifying and clarifying policy options Propaganda refers to influence attempts relying primarily on the deliberate manipulation of verbal symbols Diplomacy refers to influence attempts relying primarily on negotiation Economic statecraft refers to influence attempts relying primarily on resources which have a reasonable semblance of a market price in terms of money Military statecraft refers to influence attempts relying primarily on violence, weapons, or force in most cases it is possible to make a reasonable judgment as to the primary basis of the influence attempt
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Military and economic engagement are distinct --- the division is predictable, principled, and necessary to assess the desirability of policy
| 4,544 | 141 | 1,049 | 683 | 20 | 155 | 0.029283 | 0.22694 |
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Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East since 1999 has witnessed revolutionary changes. Turkey's traditional policy in the region aimed for the country to be as distant as possible from the region, but currently Turkey is very much engaged in regional politics and today it is one of the countries that is considered as a mediator in regional problems. The term engagement here refers not to military interventions but to engagement in regional politics. It can be argued that Turkey was also engaged in the Middle East during the 1990s because of its military operations against the PKK in Iraq. However, today Ankara is an active player in the region using non-military means of diplomacy, such as economic tools and international conferences, and Turkey has become an indispensable actor in Middle Eastern politics. The change in the attitude of Turkey towards the Middle East can be easily grasped by examining its policy towards Iraq.
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Ozcan 11 – Mesut Ozcan, Professor of International Relations at the Istanbul Commerce University, “From Distance to Engagement: Turkish Policy Towards the Middle East, Iraq and Iraqi Kurds”, Insight Turkey, 13(2), Spring, Academic OneFile
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The term engagement here refers not to military interventions but to engagement in regional politics
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Military intervention isn’t “engagement”
| 941 | 40 | 100 | 154 | 4 | 15 | 0.025974 | 0.097403 |
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“Economic sanctions”, a mode of coercion in international relations resuscitated in recent years, has prompted renewed and lively scholarly interest in the subject. Why have such measures become so popular? One answer is that they “constitute a means of exerting international influence that is more powerful than diplomatic mediation but lies below the threshold of military intervention”[1]. Another answer is that “they engage comparatively less internal political resistance than other candidate strategies [...]. They do not generate sombre processions of body bags bringing home the mortal remains of the sons and daughters of constituents”[2], in other words, they cost little to the side imposing the sanctions. The notable predilection by the United States for economic sanctions [3], suggests that such a tool is particularly useful for economically powerful states that are themselves relatively immune to such measures. This tool of collective economic coercion, with antecedents such as siege warfare and blockade going back to biblical time [4], was used during most of the 20th Century, particularly in war situations. Although the United Nations Charter, drafted during the later stages of World War II, includes provisions for the imposition of economic sanctions (Article 41), the Security Council - empowered to resort to this tool - only used it twice between 1945 and 1990, against Rhodesia in 1966 and South Africa in 1977. In our discussion we designate economic sanctions as “coordinated restrictions on trade and/or financial transactions intended to impair economic life within a given territory”[5]. To the extent that measures intend to impair “economic life within a given territory” through restrictions on trade and/or finance, they constitute, for our purposes, economic sanctions. Selective or individualized measures, such as restrictions on specific goods (arms, luxury items, some forms of travel), are therefore not considered as economic sanctions. Symbolic economic deprivations, such as partial withholding of aid, do not amount to economic sanctions if their intended effect is primarily to convey displeasure, rather than to affect the economy.
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Davidsson 3 – Elias Davidsson, Human Rights Researcher and Activist, Reporter for the Arab American News, Contributing Editor for Global Research, “The Mechanism of Economic Sanctions: Changing Perceptions and Euphemisms”, November, www.aldeilis.net/english/attachments/2877_econsanc-debate.pdf
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“Economic sanctions”, a mode resuscitated in recent years, has prompted renewed and lively scholarly interest in the subject In our discussion we designate economic sanctions as “coordinated restrictions on trade and/or financial transactions intended to impair economic life within a given territory” To the extent that measures intend to impair “economic life within a given territory” through restrictions on trade and/or finance, they constitute, for our purposes, economic sanctions. Selective or individualized measures, such as restrictions on specific goods (arms, luxury items, some forms of travel), are therefore not considered as economic sanctions
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Removing selective restrictions on specific goods isn’t “economic” because it doesn’t broadly affect economic life
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On the economic side, increased trade and investment have been the impetus for improved bilateral relations. India's decision to offer Sri Lanka favorable terms in trade has yielded not only greater economic engagement but political and strategic benefits as well. For instance, more equitable benefits in trade—represented by a narrowing of the trade balance that had titled heavily towards India—helped to diminish the perception within Sri Lanka of India as a hegemonic neighborhood bully. Burgeoning trade and investment between India and Sri Lanka, including in the strategic energy sector, have woven economic inter-dependency into the bilateral relationship and provided the forum for increased communication and cooperation on non-economic issues like counterterrorism.
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Orland 8 – Brian Orland, Research Intern at Strategic Foresight Group, Former Research Intern at Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi, Graduate of Davidson College in Political Science, “India’s Sri Lanka Policy: Towards Economic Engagement”, IPCS Research Papers, April, http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/1445888596RP16-Brian-SriLanka.pdf
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On the economic side, increased trade and investment have been the impetus for improved bilateral relations Burgeoning trade and investment have woven economic inter-dependency into the bilateral relationship and provided the forum for increased communication and cooperation on non-economic issues like counterterrorism
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“Economic” issues are trade and investment, not counterterrorism
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In the previous chapter economic techniques of statecraft were defined as governmental influence attempts relying primarily on resources that have a reasonable semblance of a market price in terms of money. Although the rationale for defining techniques of statecraft in terms of influence attempts was covered in the previous chapter, the justification for defining “economic” in terms of money prices was postponed until now.
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Baldwin 85 – David A., Professor of World Order Studies and Political Science at Columbia University, Economic Statecraft, p. 30-31
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economic techniques were defined as governmental influence attempts relying primarily on resources that have a reasonable semblance of a market price in terms of money
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It’s only “economic” if resources with money-value are involved. Other definitions should be rejected because they are imprecise and unlimiting.
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Some scholars have excessively narrowed the definition of engagement by defining it according to the ends sought rather than the means employed. For example, Schweller and Wohlforth assert that if any distinction can be drawn between engagement and appeasement, "it is that the goal of engagement is not simply tension-reduction and the avoidance of war but also an attempt to socialize [a] dissatisfied power into acceptance of the established order."(n17) Such ends-based definitions hinder the study of engagement in two ways. First, because the act of policymaking consists of selecting from a variety of alternative means in the pursuit of a given end(s), it stands to reason that policy instruments are more effectively conceptualized in terms of means rather than ends. When defined as different means, policies can be more easily compared with one another across a whole spectrum of discrete ends, in order to gauge more accurately the circumstances under which each policy is relatively more or less effective.(n18)
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Resnick 1 – Dr. Evan Resnick, Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yeshiva University, “Defining Engagement”, Journal of International Affairs, Spring, 54(2), Ebsco
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scholars have excessively narrowed the definition of engagement by defining it according to ends rather than means ends-based definitions hinder the study of engagement in two ways. First, because policymaking consists of selecting from alternative means policy instruments are more effectively conceptualized in terms of means rather than ends. When defined as different means, policies can be more easily compared with one another across a whole spectrum of discrete ends, in order to gauge more accurately the circumstances under which each policy is relatively more or less effective
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Using the end as focus wrecks topic education
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As defined here, the common element found in the categories of economic support, economic competition, economic coercion, and economic war is that each to some degree relies upon the use of the economic instrument to achieve an objective. However, only in economic competition is the objective purely economic. In economic support, coercion, and war, the objective routinely transcends economics arid will include political, military, and possibly even social goals. It is popular to equate economic conflict with economic sanctions and to define the term sanctions as being inclusive of all instruments of economic force. Such a generality deprives the policymaker of the capability to make distinctions among economic options or to rationalize a strategy that embraces the use of the economic instrument. Table 3 (chapter 6) offers a partial list of the instruments of economic force (including sanctions) that still require detailed definition and analysis.
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Scharfen 95 – John C., Marine Colonel, Planner with US Commander in Chief, Europe, The Dismal Battlefield: Mobilizing for Economic Conflict, p. 45
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the common element found in the categories of economic support, economic competition, economic coercion, and economic war is that each relies upon the use of the economic instrument However, only in economic competition is the objective purely economic. In economic support, coercion, and war, the objective routinely transcends economics arid will include political, military, and possibly even social goals
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“Economic engagement” is defined by mechanisms, not goals
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According to the Oxford Concise Dictionary, the noun engagement and the verb to engage have several different meanings. Among these, to engage can mean "to employ busily", "to hold a person's attention", "to bind by a promise (usually a marriage)", or to "come into battle with an enemy". The noun engagement can mean "the act or state of engaging or being engaged", an "appointment with another person", "a betrothal", "an encounter between hostile forces", or "a moral commitment". The gerund engaging means to be "attractive or charming". In the literature on security in the Asia-Pacific, engagement most commonly refers to policies regarding the People's Republic of China. However, the term has been used in many different ways leading to a great deal of confusion and uncertainty. A Business Week headline summed up the confusion: "Does 'engagement' mean fight or marry?"1
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Capie 2 – David H. Capie, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, and Paul M. Evans, Co-CEO and Chairman of the Executive Council of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, , The Asia-Pacific Security Lexicon, p. 118
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the noun engagement and the verb to engage have several different meanings the term has been used in many different ways leading to a great deal of confusion and uncertainty
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Prefer evidence that defines the phrase “economic engagement” as a whole --- “engagement” alone gets distorted based on specific context and clouds understanding of the topic
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The term ‘engagement’ was popularised in the early 1980s amid controversy about the Reagan administration’s policy of ‘constructive engagement’ towards South Africa. However, the term itself remains a source of confusion. Except in the few instances where the US has sought to isolate a regime or country, America arguably ‘engages’ states and actors all the time simply by interacting with them. To be a meaningful subject of analysis, the term ‘engagement’ must refer to something more specific than a policy of ‘non-isolation’. As used in this article, ‘engagement’ refers to a foreign-policy strategy which depends to a significant degree on positive incentives to achieve its objectives. Certainly, it does not preclude the simultaneous use of other foreign-policy instruments such as sanctions or military force: in practice, there is often considerable overlap of strategies, particularly when the termination or lifting of sanctions is used as a positive inducement. Yet the distinguishing feature of American engagement strategies is their reliance on the extension or provision of incentives to shape the behaviour of countries with which the US has important disagreements.
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Haass 00 – Richard Haass & Meghan O’Sullivan, Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program, “Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies”, Survival, 42(2), Summer, p. 1-2
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The term ‘engagement’ was popularised amid controversy about the Reagan policy of ‘constructive engagement’ towards South Africa. However, the term itself remains a source of confusion America arguably ‘engages’ states all the time simply by interacting with them. To be a meaningful subject of analysis, the term ‘engagement’ must refer to something more specific than a policy of ‘non-isolation’
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Many types of “engagement” exist. Meaningful debate demands precision about the term.
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Virtually all conversations with Obama administration foreign-policy officials, no matter where they begin, come to rest at "engagement" -- that vexing, mutable, all-purpose word. The U.S. president has "engaged" with rogue states, civil society, the United Nations, and citizens around the globe. Iran vindicates the policy of engagement -- or discredits it. China is a failure of engagement, Russia a success. Inside the Obama realm, engagement has come to mean "good diplomacy."
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Traub 10 – James Traub, Fellow of the Center for International Cooperation and Contributing Writer for the New York Times Magazine, “Terms of Engagement”, Foreign Policy, 2-19, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/02/19/terms_of_engagement?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full
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Virtually all conversations with Obama administration foreign-policy officials come to rest at "engagement" -- that vexing, mutable, all-purpose word. The U.S. president has "engaged" with rogue states, civil society, the United Nations, and citizens around the globe
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Contextual uses of “engagement” are virtually infinite and ruin precision
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Economic diplomacy is best defined not by its instruments but by the economic issues that provide its content. We follow the same categories as used by Odell in determining the scope of economic negotiation: 'policies relating to production, movement or exchange of goods, services, investments (including official development assistance), money, information and their regulation’ (Odell 2000. 11). This is a very wide range of issues. A single volume could not cover them all and, of necessity, this book is selective. It concentrates on the central issues of trade, finance, energy and the global environment. These are topics of high political profile, which arouse strong popular concern and bring out well the interplay between different actors in economic diplomacy
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Bayne 7 – Sir Nicholas Bayne, Fellow at the International Trade Policy Unit of the London School of Economics, and Stephen Woolcock, Lecturer in International Relations at The London School of Economics, The New Economic Diplomacy: Decision-making and Negotiation in International Economic Relations, p. 4
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Economic diplomacy is best defined not by its instruments but by the economic issues that provide its content. We follow the same categories as used by Odell in determining the scope of economic negotiation: 'policies relating to production, movement or exchange of goods, services, investments (including official development assistance), money, information and their regulation’ This is a very wide range of issues
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Our interpretation allows sufficient Aff flexibility
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While the term "engagement" enjoys great consistency and clarity of meaning in the discourse of romantic love, it enjoys neither in the discourse of statecraft. Currently, practitioners and scholars of American foreign policy are vigorously debating the merits of engagement as a strategy for modifying the behavior of unsavory regimes. The quality of this debate, however, is diminished by the persistent inability of the US foreign policy establishment to advance a coherent and analytically rigorous conceptualization of engagement. In this essay, I begin with a brief survey of the conceptual fog that surrounds engagement and then attempt to give a more refined definition. I will use this definition as the basis for drawing a sharp distinction between engagement and alternative policy approaches, especially appeasement, isolation and containment.
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Resnick 1 – Dr. Evan Resnick, Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yeshiva University, “Defining Engagement”, Journal of International Affairs, Spring, 54(2), Ebsco
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While the term "engagement" enjoys great consistency and clarity of meaning in the discourse of romantic love, it enjoys neither in the discourse of statecraft quality of debate is diminished by inability of the US foreign policy establishment to advance a coherent and analytically rigorous conceptualization of engagement conceptual fog surrounds engagement a more refined definition draw a sharp distinction between engagement and appeasement, isolation and containment
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Defining engagement overly broadly ruins the quality of debate
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Clearly, there is a need for improved understanding of economic diplomacy's activities, tools and goals. This article contributes to this debate, and proposes a conceptual and an analytical framework of economic diplomacy. The reasons for this are threefold. First, the distinction between economic diplomacy and related concepts is imperative in order to bring order in the definitional chaos. What differentiates economic diplomacy from economic statecraft, economic security, trade diplomacy, commercial diplomacy and financial diplomacy — and how do these concepts relate? Second, a better conceptualization of economic diplomacy is useful in order to address practical questions, such as how to deal with the artificial distinction between the public and private sectors. Finally, improved understanding of both the theory and practice of economic diplomacy grows in importance because of shifting power balances. Latecomer countries — including Asian, post-colonial and transition states — are strengthening their role and influence in global politics and economics in a system that has long been dominated by Western countries. Confronted with the viscosity of global governance and international political and financial institutions, the governments of these emerging countries primarily use economic tools and commercial relations to strengthen their position in international politics.
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van Bergeijk 11 – Dr. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, Professor of International Economics and Macroeconomics at the Institute of Social Studies at Erasmus University, Economic Diplomacy: Economic and Political Perspectives, p. 8-9
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Clearly, there is a need for improved understanding of economic diplomacy's activities This article proposes a conceptual and an analytical framework of economic diplomacy the distinction between economic diplomacy and related concepts is imperative in order to bring order in the definitional chaos. What differentiates economic diplomacy from security, trade commercial and financial diplomacy a better conceptualization of economic diplomacy is useful in order to address practical questions
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Topic education --- blurring the line of “economic” creates definitional chaos that precludes any understanding of engagement
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There are plenty of works on US foreign policy conceived of primarily in political and strategic terms. By comparison, economic instruments of foreign policy and economic issues as the subject of policy-making are generally only of peripheral or passing concern, or are seen as technically separate from other aspects of foreign policy. Banishment to the periphery and the segregation of the economic from the political and the strategic are regrettable. Deterrence and attempts at deterrence in the 1930s and in the Cold War went deeper and spread broader than can be captured simply by focusing on the purely political and the purely strategic. The political, the strategic and the economic are all inextricably intertwined strands of foreign policy. A brief excursion into the 1930s will demonstrate the pertinence of this judgement.
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Dobson 1 – Alan, Professor of International Relations at the University of Wales, US Economic Statecraft for Survival 1933-1991, p. 4
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economic instruments of foreign policy and economic issues are seen as technically separate from other aspects of foreign policy. Banishment to the periphery and the segregation of the economic from the political and the strategic are regrettable. Deterrence went deeper and spread broader than can be captured simply by focusing on the purely political and the purely strategic. The political, the strategic and the economic are all inextricably intertwined strands of foreign policy
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Economics cannot be split off from strategic considerations --- their interpretation warps the discussion of foreign policy
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Thus economic statecraft emerges as a focus of concern for scholars within the broader field of foreign policy. In this study, activity falls within the scope of economic statecraft not only when economic instruments are used as means for conducting statecraft, but also when non-economic instruments are used against specific economic targets in wartime. In examining the different categories of economic instruments of statecraft, it is clear that sharp theoretical distinctions drawn between sanctions, strategic embargoes, cold economic warfare and economic warfare cannot be sustained when trying to explain practice. We come to understand things by experiencing change and rendering it into an explanatory form via an appropriate theoretical framework. Practice is too complicated to be captured by preconceived rigid definitions that make no allowance for change. In simple terms, trying to define sanctions in the abstract has severe limitations. However, using the term sanction in a particular context can make sense, even when it overlaps with other tactics or strategies of economic statecraft, and when it has both instrumental and expressive effects. Actors often have several motives and several objectives in mind when they impose trade controls. Both intent and effect might simultaneously involve restricting and weakening the military and economic strength of a target state, economically strengthening satellites of the main target state in order to create tensions and jealousies, enhancing a bargaining position, allowing trade with the specific aim of trying to seduce mass opinion in the opponent state, attempting to persuade it to change policy, making a moral statement, and sending complicated and different messages to the target, neutral states, allies and the sender’s own domestic constituency. In these kinds of situations a single action is a sanction, a strategic embargo, a message-sender, and an instance of cold economic warfare or economic warfare. In situations where trade is allowed or promoted and looks like normal trade from the outside, it is only by addressing intention that we can see that more is at stake than just profit and loss. If the intent is to change attitudes in the target state, then this distinguishes the trade from normal commercial transactions. However it is not just in cases where trade is allowed or promoted that we need to be sensitive to the expressive as well as the instrumental effects of trade controls. They all make statements. Sometimes they speak to a target state in a way that was not intended by the sender, but they always say something. Particularly in times of heightened tension short of war, and especially in the Cold War, the ability of economic instruments of statecraft to send messages was of great significance to American policy-makers. For much of the Cold War it was more important than the instrumental effects of trade controls.
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Dobson 1 – Alan, Professor of International Relations at the University of Wales, US Economic Statecraft for Survival 1933-1991, p. 7-8
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economic statecraft emerges as a focus within the broader field of foreign policy activity falls within the scope of economic statecraft not only when economic instruments are used but also when non-economic instruments are used against specific economic targets In examining different categories of economic instruments it is clear that sharp theoretical distinctions drawn between sanctions, strategic embargoes, cold economic warfare and economic warfare cannot be sustained when trying to explain practice Practice is too complicated to be captured by preconceived rigid definitions that make no allowance for change trying to define sanctions in the abstract has severe limitations Actors often have several motives and several objectives in mind when they impose trade controls trade controls all make statements
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Economic statecraft is broad and complicated --- rigid definitions should be rejected
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Comparative influence techniques The instruments of statecraft - diplomatic, economic, military, and symbolic -tend to be studied separately. This is a hindrance from the standpoint of both theory and policy relevance. Without comparative research on techniques of statecraft, theorists can say little about the utility of various policy instruments. If the success rate of economic sanctions is estimated at 34%, should one conclude that policy-makers are fools for using an instrument with such a low rate of success? Or is this about the best that can be expected of any instrument of statecraft? There is little or no reliable data on comparative success rates of instruments of statecraft.
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Baldwin 12 – David A., Professor of World Order Studies and Political Science at Columbia University, Handbook of International Relations, Ed. Carlsnaes, Risse, and Simmons, p. 289
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The instruments of statecraft - diplomatic, economic, military, and symbolic -tend to be studied separately. This is a hindrance from the standpoint of both theory and policy relevance. Without comparative research on techniques of statecraft, theorists can say little about the utility of various policy instruments There is little or no reliable data on comparative success rates of instruments of statecraft
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Strict separation of “economic” from other statecraft undermines policy analysis
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Finally, it is critical not to make the error of equating international economic policy with its most widely recognized component, foreign trade. The former is an umbrella term encompassing many other important issue areas, such as international finance and assistance to poor countries.
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Cohen 00 – Stephen D. Cohen, Professor in the School of International Service at American University, The Making of United States International Economic Policy: Principles, Problems, and Proposals for Reform, p. 4
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it is critical not to make the error of equating international economic policy with its most widely recognized component, foreign trade. The former is an umbrella term encompassing many other important issue areas, such as international finance and assistance to poor countries
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“Economic” engagement isn’t limited to only trade --- also includes finance and aid
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A fourth route, in the eastern sector has been agreed-in-principle since the last few years but there remain some basic complications. The problem with this border trade post involves the ticklish issue of India's province of Sikkim that the Chinese continue to regard as an independent state. While the Indian side has been suggesting the route originating in Sikkim, the Chinese have been deliberating on this issue as it implies a formal recognition of Sikkim's accession to India. China, therefore, has suggested an alternate route from Kalimpong in the Darjeeling district of India's province of West Bengal (passing through Sikkim) to Yatung in Chumbi Valley region. The Chinese have also been indicating that such an agreement on this border trade post may include language implying China's official recognition of Sikkim as part of the Indian Union. New Delhi, however, would like China to recognise Sikkim as part of India as a pre-requisite to any such agreement. This is often explained in terms of India's earlier experiences with such trade pacts. For example, in another trade agreement of April 1954, Prime Minister Nehru had traded off entire Tibet for nothing. To break from this intractable deadlock in their eastern sector, the two sides have since expanded their framework and have been exploring possibilities of opening their border trade as part of sub-regional cooperation amongst India's northeast, China's southwest, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The first formal conference for this purpose was convened in August 1999 at Kunming in China's province of Yunnan and it passed a resolution which is known now as the Kunming Initiative. India is preparing to host the second such conference for sub-regional cooperation amongst these four countries during the first week of December 2000 at Delhi. All this clearly shows how despite continuous improvement in their mutual trade and commerce, their economic decisions still continue to be guided by their non-economic motives.
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Singh 1 – Swaran Singh, Research Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses, “China-India: Expanding Economic Engagement”, 1-3, http://www.idsa-india.org/an-jan-3-01html.html
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The problem with border trade involves the issue of India's province that the Chinese regard as an independent state All this clearly shows how despite continuous improvement in their mutual trade and commerce, their economic decisions still continue to be guided by their non-economic motives
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Motive is irrelevant --- the form of engagement is key
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Economic diplomacy is a multi-hued activity, easy to describe in broad brushstrokes, but harder to pin down with precision. From the perspective of members of diplomatic and commercial or trade services, and those that are the ‘customers’ or users of these services, economic diplomacy is a plural set of practices, all aimed at advancing the home country’s external economic interests. Is it different from commercial diplomacy? Opinions differ; some of those that have worked in this métier tend to see commercial diplomacy as a subset of the wider compendium of economic diplomacy. For instance, typically, commercial diplomacy would not include the management of economic aid – either as a donor or as a recipient – but that would clearly fall within the rubric of economic diplomacy. The same may apply to managing relations with international economic organisations, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, or the UN regional commissions such as the Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). A chart showing their characteristics and differentiation is set out in figure 1.
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Rana 11 – Kishan S. Rana, Former Indian Ambassador, and Bipul Chatterjee, Deputy Executive Director of CUTS International, “Introduction: The Role of Embassies”, Economic Diplomacy: India’s Experience, p. 3-4
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Economic diplomacy is a multi-hued activity Is it different from commercial diplomacy? Opinions differ; some see commercial diplomacy as a subset of the wider compendium of economic diplomacy. For instance, typically, commercial diplomacy would not include the management of economic aid The same may apply to managing relations with international economic organisations
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Commercial diplomacy is part of economic diplomacy
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Economic negotiations are those in which parties' demands, offers, and related actions refer to the production, movement or exchange of goods, services, investments (including official development loans), money, information, or their regulation. This book concentrates on trade and finance, but economic bargaining includes other issues such as transportation, communication, and investment. All such episodes share a crucial property that is absent from typical security negotiations: they are sensitive to concrete markets. This market sensitivity is found in many cases that are otherwise diverse. Economic episodes are important enough and distinctive enough for study and yet they have not been viewed together in this light.
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Odell 00 – John S. Odell, Professor of International Relations at the University of Southern California, Negotiating the World Economy, p. 11
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Economic negotiations are those in which parties' demands, offers, and related actions refer to the production, movement or exchange of goods, services, investments (including official development loans), money, information, or their regulation. This book concentrates on trade and finance, but economic bargaining includes other issues such as transportation, communication, and investment
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“Economic” negotiations include communication
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The Concise Oxford Dictionary defines ‘sanction’ as a ‘law, decree’, a ‘penalty for disobedience’, and ‘economic or military action by State(s) to coerce another into conformity with international norms of conduct.’ It is obvious then, combining all these definitions, that an economic sanction is a trade law or action created by a State to punish another for not obeying international norms of conduct. There are many types of economic sanctions including import restrictions, boycotts, and embargoes that prevent exports to another country. Economic sanctions are used in international political economy as a tool for foreign policy, using trade as a way to punish a nation. ‘If wealth is power, then trade is both’. Economic sanctions are used as another way to try and force a state to implement changes before military intervention is used. The reason for this is that just war theory, which is the theory of war that most states and international organisations use, says that war/military intervention should be a last resort. Therefore economic sanctions provide a way to punish a nation without the military intervention. However the effectiveness of this is debatable, as I have already stated.
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McKenzie 3 – Fiona, Are Economic Sanctions Effective Without The Threat of Military Intervention?, Panorama, 12-7, http://www.takingitglobal.org/express/panorama/article.html?ContentID=2454
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Oxford Dictionary defines ‘sanction’ as a economic action by State(s) to coerce another into conformity with international norms of conduct There are many types of economic sanctions including import restrictions, boycotts, and embargoes that prevent exports to another country
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Import and export restrictions are economic sanctions
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There are, as always, borderline cases that are hard to classify. For example, should the sale or gift of military hardware be considered as economic or military statecraft? In general, the relevant distinction is between firing (or threatening to fire) weapons and selling (or promising to sell) them. Insofar as a market price for such items exists, these transactions could reasonably be labeled economic statecraft. A plausible case could also be made for classifying them as military since some items, e.g. nuclear bombs, may have no "going market price." Also, since providing weapons is so closely related to military statecraft, some might want to treat it as such. Depending on the particular research interest at hand, one might decide to classify them either way. The existence of such borderline cases, however, does not do serious harm to the value of this concept of economic statecraft for most purposes.
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Baldwin 85 – David A., Professor of World Order Studies and Political Science at Colombia, Economic Statecraft, p. 31
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There are borderline cases that are hard to classify. For example, should the sale of military hardware be considered as economic or military statecraft? In general, the relevant distinction is between firing weapons and selling them. Insofar as a market price for such items exists, these transactions could reasonably be labeled economic statecraft The existence of borderline cases does not do serious harm to the value of this concept of economic statecraft for most purposes
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Selling military equipment is “economic” --- this is a reasonable distinction that excludes weapons use
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The United States should also expand unconditional engagement of the economic variety; such a low-risk strategy can gradually promote internal changes as Cubans benefit from new economic opportunities. The Clinton administration has already authorised increased levels of allowable remittances and expanded trade with non-government entities. However, these changes do not go far enough. There should be no ceiling on the amount of remittances which Cuban families can receive from relatives living in the US. Moreover, even if Castro resists conditional engagement that could be linked to the gradual easing of the embargo, US policy-makers should consider ways in which investment codes could replace elements of the embargo. The possibility of employing investment codes that allow for American trade with, and investment in, Cuban entities meeting specific conditions concerning ownership structure and labour rights should be explored.14 Given the paucity of privately owned businesses in Cuba today, the instant effects of such codes in boosting trade and investment would probably be minimal. However, the employment of investment codes – in place of more blanked restrictions – would offer immediate psychological support, as well as tangible incentives for growth, to Cuba’s struggling private sector.
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Haass 00 – Richard Haass & Meghan O’Sullivan, Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program, “Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies”, Survival, 42(2), Summer, p. 16
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The U S should expand unconditional engagement of the economic variety; such a low-risk strategy can gradually promote internal changes as Cubans benefit from new economic opportunities. The Clinton administration has already authorised increased levels of allowable remittances and expanded trade with non-government entities
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Cuban remittance liberalization is topical
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Sanctions are policy tools used by governments to influence other governments and/or firms and citizens in other nations. An economic sanction is a restriction on commercial relations between citizens and firms of at least two countries: those in the sender (the nation imposing the sanction) and those in the target (the nation upon which the sanction is imposed). Economic sanctions may restrict commercial relations of third countries or third parties as well. Sanctions can include (1) trade embargoes that prohibit all merchandise and/or service trade between the sender and target, (2) more limited trade bans on certain goods or services, (3) restrictions on investment and other financial flows, (4) limitations on travel, and (5) limits on the transfer of nonfinancial assets between nations (as in the case of technology transfer regulations).
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Askari 3 – Hossein, et al, Professor of International Business at George Washington University, Case Studies of U.S. Economic Sanctions: The Chinese, Cuban, and Iranian Experience, p. 1
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An economic sanction is a restriction on commercial relations between countries Sanctions can include (1) trade embargoes that prohibit all merchandise and/or service trade between the sender and target, (2) more limited trade bans on certain goods or services, (3) restrictions on investment and other financial flows, (4) limitations on travel, and (5) limits on the transfer of nonfinancial assets between nations
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Economic sanctions include bans on travel and single products
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The term engagement was popularized amid the controversial policy of constructive engagement pursued by the United States toward South Africa during the first term of the Reagan administration. However, the term itself remains a source of confusion. To the Chinese, the word appears to mean simply the conduct of normal relations. In German, no comparable translation exists. Even to native English speakers, the concept behind the word is unclear. Except in the few instances in which the United States has sought to isolate a regime or country, America arguably "engages" states and actors all the time in one capacity or another simply by interacting with them. This book, however, employs the term engagement in a much more specific way, one that involves much more than a policy of nonisolation. In our usage, engagement refers to a foreign policy strategy that depends to a significant degree on positive incentives to achieve its objectives. Certainly, engagement does not preclude the simultaneous use of other foreign policy instruments such as sanctions or military force. In practice, there is often considerable overlap of strategies, particularly when the termination or lifting of sanctions is used as a positive inducement. Yet the distinguishing feature of engagement strategies is their reliance on the extension or provision of incentives to shape the behavior of countries with which the United States has important disagreements.
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Haass 00 – Richard Haass & Meghan O’Sullivan, Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program, Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign Policy, p. 1-2
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The term engagement remains a source of confusion the concept behind the word is unclear. America arguably "engages" states all the time in one capacity or another simply by interacting with them. This book, however, employs the term engagement in a much more specific way, one that involves much more than a policy of nonisolation. In our usage, engagement refers to a foreign policy strategy that depends to a significant degree on positive incentives to achieve its objectives the distinguishing feature of engagement strategies is their reliance on the extension or provision of incentives to shape the behavior of countries with which the U S has important disagreements
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“Engagement” requires the provision of positive incentives
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The volume's comprehensive approach to studying engagement means that the contributors have vastly different research agendas. To encourage a common dialogue among the contributors and to facilitate the generation of a common understanding of engagement with cross-national applications, the contributors have worked within a common definition of engagement. For the purpose of this volume, engagement is defined as follows:
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Johnston 99 – Alastair Iain Johnston, Laine Professor of China in World Affairs in the Government Department at Harvard University, et al., Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power, Ed. Johnson and Ross, p. xiv-iv
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comprehensive approach to studying engagement means contributors have vastly different research agendas. To encourage a common dialogue and to facilitate understanding of engagement contributors have worked within a common definition engagement is defined as follows:
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Plan is negative pressure --- voting issue:
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When the United States seeks to change the behavior of rival or adversarial states, what are the available tools and strategies? In this provocative study, Nincic observes that American foreign-policy makers tend to resort to “negative pressures,” such as the use of force, coercive diplomacy, and economic sanctions. Less appreciated and less understood, Nincic argues, are the tools and strategies of “engagement,” policies that use positive inducements to alter the incentives and orientations of other states. Nincic is surely correct: policymakers know more about the use of sticks than carrots. The book seeks to explain the bias in American foreign policy toward threats and punishments and argues that it is a legacy of the Cold War, which taught politicians to worry about charges of appeasement. Nincic also sees biases in the American security-studies community, where, he claims, realist understandings of the world shift attention away from nonmilitary tools of influence. The book’s most useful contribution is to spell out how strategies of engagement and positive inducements can work, using the United States’ experiences with Cuba, Iran, Libya, North Korea, and Syria as case studies.
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Ikenberry 12 – G. John Ikenberry, Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, Review of “The Logic of Positive Engagement”, Foreign Affairs, January / February, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136888/miroslav-nincic/the-logic-of-positive-engagement-cornell-studies-in-security-aff
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American foreign-policy makers tend to resort to “negative pressures,” such as the use of force, coercive diplomacy, and economic sanctions. Less appreciated are the tools and strategies of “engagement,” policies that use positive inducements to alter the incentives and orientations of other states policymakers know more about the use of sticks than carrots
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“Engagement” is only positive inducements --- negative pressure like sanctions, coercive diplomacy, or force aren’t topical
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In dealing with China, Malaysia clearly favours a strategy of engagement. As Abdullah Badawi, then Malaysia's Foreign Minister, put it in 1997, "The most important thing is engagement, not containment."2 The usage of the term "engagement" by Malaysian officials to describe its policy towards China is a recent practice. It seems to have been adapted from the debates in the West and Asia Pacific security meetings on the implications of the rise of China, debates which Malaysian officials and security specialists have followed and actively participated in. But the meaning of the term is somewhat more narrow and specific in Malaysia than in the US, especially in terms of its objectives. As with Indonesia (see Michael Leifer, Chapter 4, this volume), Malaysia does not seek to influence the domestic politics of China, keeping the focus instead on China's external behaviour. A strategy of engagement, in the sense used by the editors of this volume (see their Preface), is a deliberate policy of socialization of a rising power using non-coercive methods. Its aim is not to prevent or block the growth of the latter's influence or status, but to ensure that any change in the regional and global order caused by its ascendancy is peaceful. An engagement policy is pursued through essentially non-coercive methods. It may involve the creation of institutional constraints on the rising power's geopolitical behaviour, accommodation of its legitimate interests, and the devising of other means to transform its policies that are deemed to be destabilizing. In contrast, containment is a strategy pursued through coercive means in order to constrain a rising power, including engendering its military defeat or internal collapse.
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Johnston 99 – Alastair Iain Johnston, Laine Professor of China in World Affairs in the Government Department at Harvard University, et al., Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power, Ed. Johnson and Ross, p. 133
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The usage of the term "engagement" is somewhat more narrow and specific in Malaysia than in the US A strategy of engagement, in the sense used by the editors of this volume is a deliberate policy of socialization of a rising power using non-coercive methods. Its aim is not to prevent or block the growth of the latter's influence or status, but to ensure that any change in the regional and global order caused by its ascendancy is peaceful In contrast, containment is a strategy pursued through coercive means in order to constrain a rising power, including engendering its military defeat or internal collapse
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Negative pressure is “containment”, not “engagement”
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Much of the attention in political science to the question of interdependence and conflict focuses at the systemic level, on arguments and evidence linking the expansion of economic exchange among states on the one hand to the exacerbation of international conflict or the facilitation of international cooperation on the other. The approach taken in this chapter focuses instead at the state level, on the expansion of economic interdependence as a tool of state craft. Under what circumstances does the cultivation of economic ties, that is, the fostering of economic interdependence as a conscious state strategy, lead to important and predicable changes in the foreign policy behavior of a target state? Students of economic statecraft refer to this strategy variously as economic engagement, economic inducement, economic diplomacy, positive sanctions, positive economic linkage, or the use of economic “carrots” instead of sticks. Critics of the strategy call it economic appeasement.
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Mastanduno 3 – Michael Mastanduno, Government Professor at Dartmouth, The Strategy of Economic Engagement: Theory and Practice, in Edward D. Mansfield and Brian M. Pollins, eds, Economic Interdependence and International Conflict: New Perspectives on an Enduring Debate, p. 184-5
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Under what circumstances does the cultivation of economic ties lead to important and predicable changes in the foreign policy behavior of a target state? Students of economic statecraft refer to this strategy variously as economic engagement, economic inducement, economic diplomacy, positive sanctions, positive economic linkage, or the use of economic “carrots” instead of sticks
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“Economic engagement” is positive use of carrots instead of sticks
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Engagement, as typically conceived, is not a global national security strategy, but an approach to dealing with a specific state (or states) exhibiting hostile or otherwise undesirable behavior. In this more common sense of the term, "engagement" is often contrasted with "containment." Rather than confronting one’s opponent through economic sanctions or even military threats, engagement involves establishing or enhancing contacts, communication, and exchanges, especially in the commercial realm.78 This notion of engagement is articulated in those portions of A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement in which the document discusses China and certain other countries, and is the basis of America's current China policy. In fact, however, it predates the Clinton presidency. U.S. administrations from Nixon to Reagan pursued engagement with respect to South Africa and the practice of apartheid. The Bush administration did so in its approach to China before and after the shooting of pro-democracy demonstrators in Tienanmen Square.79
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Rock 00 – Stephen R. Rock, Professor of Political Science at Vassar College, Appeasement in International Politics, p. 22
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In this more common sense of the term, "engagement" is often contrasted with "containment." Rather than confronting one’s opponent through economic sanctions or even military threats, engagement involves establishing or enhancing contacts, communication, and exchanges, especially in the commercial realm
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Imposing sanctions is “containment”, not “engagement”
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Garzke et al,(2001)point outs that economic relations have pacifying affect on political tensions. Long term economic relations even create their own bodies and instructions thus, they do not necessitate for frequent political interactions. Regulated trade intensifies the mutual dependence and additional bodies which wants to sustain the benefits of mentioned dependence. Kroll (1993) defends that interdependence does not create a dependence out of complex political manoeuvres nor from trade. Modern state have the capacity to reach the optimum solutions for its own benefit and it has the tools to establish rational policies. Papayoanou(1997) contributes as follos; Trade generates information via institutions and those information removes the uncertainty between the states. Additionaly it establishes a trust between the parties and paves the way for additional signalling mechanisms in case of mistrust. Furthermore; Signalling measures such as additional taxations or adjusted tariffs gives a leeway for set of options before the possibility of conflict. If the country does not have 13 strong economic ties, there would be no tools for signalling mechanisms. Therefore economic engagement policies are not only different from economic sanctions but also they design the former ones from early phases. This argument has similarities with the conditionalists in a sense that economic sanctions are more effective between interdependent countries albeit it is more costly. (Kroll,1993)
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Çelik 11 – Arda Can Çelik, Masters Degree in Politics and International Studies from Uppsala University, Economic Sanctions and Engagement Policies, p. 13-14
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Therefore economic engagement policies are not only different from economic sanctions but also they design the former ones from early phases
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Sanctioning is not “economic engagement”
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Incentives work on a quid pro quo basis – this for that. If you change your behavior, I’ll give you a reward. One could say that coercion is an incentive program – do as I say and I’ll let you live. However, I define an incentive as getting something you didn’t have before in exchange for new behavior, so that pretty much puts coercion in its own box, one separate from incentives. But fundamental problems plague the incentive approach. Like coercion, incentives are poor motivators in the long run, for at least two reasons – unintended consequences and perverse incentives.
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De LaHunt 6 - Assistant Director for Environmental Health & Safety Services in Colorado College's Facilities Services department (John, “Perverse and unintended” Journal of Chemical Health and Safety, July-August, Science direct)
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Incentives work on a quid pro quo basis – this for that. If you change your behavior, I’ll give you a reward. One could say that coercion is an incentive program – do as I say and I’ll let you live. However, I define an incentive as getting something you didn’t have before in exchange for new behavior, so that pretty much puts coercion in its own box, one separate from incentives
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“Incentives” are distinct from coercion --- the test is that the incentive must provide something you didn’t have before the offer
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[*548] Third, when regulations are enforced, the resulting penalties may demoralize individuals and create negative attitudes towards conservation. n34 Punishment is effective at reducing the frequency of undesirable behaviors, but may impair pro-environmental attitudes and perceptions of self-efficacy. n35 For example, if a homeowner has to pay a steep environmental fine for destroying habitat, she may generalize the negative emotions from the punishment to species protection or environmentalism generally. Indeed, the enforcement of the Endangered Species Act has resulted in a strong citizen backlash against species-protection legislation and regulation of private land. n36 Given the imperfect translation of attitudes to high-cost behaviors, anti-environmental attitudes will not necessarily prompt habitat destruction or polluting behaviors. However, negative attitudes are likely to affect political choices, such as voting against candidates who support environmental protection. Enforcement of any program, including incentives, is inevitably negative at least some of the time (i.e., an individual may perceive the removal of an expected incentive as punishment). n37 However, traditional command and control regulation is more punitive in tenor because individuals interact directly with the regulatory authority only for the purpose of punishment. In incentive programs, there are generally a large number of compliant participants whose interaction with the state is explicitly positive (i.e., the receipt of rewards).
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Stern 6 – Assistant Professor of Law, Loyola Chicago University School of Law (Stephanie, Fall, “Encouraging Conservation on Private Lands: A Behavioral Analysis of Financial Incentives”, 48 Ariz. L. Rev. 541, Lexis Law)
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Enforcement of any program, including incentives, is inevitably negative at least some of the time (i.e., an individual may perceive the removal of an expected incentive as punishment However, regulation is more punitive in tenor because individuals interact directly with the regulatory authority only for the purpose of punishment. In incentive programs, there are generally a large number of compliant participants whose interaction with the state is explicitly positive (i.e., the receipt of rewards
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Avoiding punishment isn’t an incentive --- incentives require linkage to a specific reward
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The theoretical basis of sanctions is that they compel the government of the target country to change its approach in relation to certain problematic issues. In recent years sanctions have been variously used against a number of states for allegedly violating human rights. It is believed that the pressure of sanctions would compel the government to change its conduct and attitude towards certain issues – that the loss of certain privileges could persuade or force them to change their ways. Alternatively, though this aim is less pronounced, the effect of sanctions might cause the citizens to demand change from their government. There are a number of types of sanctions – economic, diplomatic, etc. In recent years there has been increasing use of targeted sanctions also known as “smart” sanctions– whereby certain individuals or organisations within a country are specifically targeted using for example, travel bans, asset-freezing, etc.
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Magaisa 9 – Dr. Alex T. Magaisa, Lawyer Specialising in Economic and Financial Services Law and Columnist for the Zimbabwe Independent Newspaper, “Zimbabwe: Sanctions, the Economy and Democratic Process”, 11-12, http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/magaisa6.13113.html
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There are a number of types of sanctions – economic, diplomatic, etc. In recent years there has been increasing use of targeted sanctions also known as “smart” sanctions– whereby certain individuals or organisations within a country are specifically targeted using for example, travel bans, asset-freezing, etc.
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Unlimits --- the number of potential sanctions is huge
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Economic statecraft, as defined here, is intentionally broad, since it has to include all economic forms of influence. However, the distinction can be made between negative sanctions (withholding economic advantages) and positive sanctions (offering economic benefits), as well as trade and financial sanctions. For the purposes of this study, using the case of Yugoslavia, economic sanctions will be used to describe the technique of economic statecraft that withholds economic advantages through either trade or financial restrictions.
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Delevic 98 – Milica Delevic, Assistant Foreign Minister in Charge of European Integration for Serbia, “Economic Sanctions as a Foreign Policy Tool: The Case of Yugoslavia”, The International Journal of Peace Studies, 3(1), http://www.gmu.edu/programs/icar/ijps/vol3_1/Delvic.htm
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Economic statecraft is intentionally broad, since it has to include all economic forms of influence. However, the distinction can be made between negative sanctions (withholding economic advantages) and positive sanctions (offering economic benefits), as well as trade and financial sanctions economic sanctions describe the technique of economic statecraft that withholds economic advantages through restrictions
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Distinguishing positive from negative sanctions is the only way to prevent an overly broad topic
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The cumulative result of the shifting international order meant that renewing US leadership in an increasingly multi-polar - or even, as Richard Haass termed it, non-polar25 - international order required an intelligent and imaginative approach by the incoming administration. Obama's response was to emphasize a pragmatic but nonetheless ambitious international strategy that attended carefully to a new era of limits on unilateral US power while simultaneously devoting substantial resources to rebuilding America's faltering domestic base. The term most commonly invoked over 2009-12 to define Obama's foreign policy was strategic "engagement." The National Security Strategy (NSS) document of May 2010 defined engagement rather broadly as "the active participation of the United States in relationships beyond our borders."26 A more precise definition might be "persuasion": employing positive and negative inducements to convince or cajole others to change their behavior, as their most rewarding or least harmful course of action. (Although, technically, a "pure" policy of engagement would abandon negative inducements or threats altogether,2? the terms "engagement" or "strategic engagement" will be used here to cover both variants.)
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Singh 12 – Robert Singh, Professor of Politics at Birkbeck College, Barack Obama's Post-American Foreign Policy: The Limits of Engagement, Google Books
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The term most commonly invoked to define Obama's foreign policy was strategic "engagement." The (NSS) document defined engagement rather broadly as active participation A more precise definition might be "persuasion": employing positive and negative inducements to convince or cajole others to change their behavior Although, technically, a "pure" policy of engagement would abandon negative inducements the terms "engagement" will be used here to cover both variants
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“Engagement” includes negative pressure
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Economic sanctions are a particular type of statecraft used to advance foreign policy goals. According to David Baldwin, sanctions are "influence attempts" in which states seek to exert power over other international actors—that is, to get them to do what they otherwise would not do.4 The major difference between economic statecraft and military statecraft does not lie in the level of coercion or destructiveness involved hut in the nature of the tools used: Military statecraft relies on force to influence other states (through rewards or punishment) whereas economic statecraft relies on economic instruments.
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Amstutz 8 – Mark R. Amstutz, Professor of Political Science at Wheaton College, International Ethics: Concepts, Theories, and Cases in Global Politics, p. 176
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Economic sanctions are a particular type of statecraft used to advance foreign policy goals
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Economic sanctions can be positive --- most precise definition
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POLITICAL science has made valuable contributions to the progressive clarification of the concept of power since World War II. In view of the attention political scientists have traditionally lavished on the concept of power, it seems fitting that they should help clarify it. Thanks to the efforts of such men as Harold Lasswell and Robert Dahl, many political scientists today are keenly aware of the need to define power in relational terms, to distinguish power relations from power resources, to specify scope, weight, domain, and so on.' There is, however, one distinction that is rarely considered by political scientists-that between positive and negative sanctions. The purpose of this paper is to clarify this distinction and show how and why it matters. It is not that political scientists have said wrong things about the role of positive sanctions in power relations; it is just that they have said little.2 Most of their discussions of power have focused on severe negative sanctions. Can one influence more flies with honey than with vinegar? Can one influence more Vietnamese with economic aid than with napalm? The literature of political science not only gives few clues to the answers, it often implies that such questions are not even worth asking. Dahl recognizes but understates the problem: "The existence of both negative and positive coercion is sometimes a source of confusion in political analysis, since writers often either confound the two or ignore positive coercion."'
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Baldwin 71 – David A., Professor of World Order Studies and Political Science at Columbia University, “The Power of Positive Sanctions”, World Politics, 24(1), http://www.princeton.edu/~dbaldwin/selected%20articles/Baldwin%20(1971)%20The%20Power%20of%20Positive%20Sanctions.pdf
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There is one distinction rarely considered by political scientists-that between positive and negative sanctions. The purpose of this paper is to clarify this distinction and show how and why it matters The existence of both negative and positive coercion is sometimes a source of confusion in political analysis, since writers often either confound the two or ignore positive coercion
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Positive action is also coercive --- their author agrees
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A sanction is an action by one actor (A) intended to affect the behavior of another actor (B) by enhancing or reducing the values available to B. Influence attempts by A using actual or threatened punishments of B are instances of negative sanctions. Influence attempts by A using actual or promised rewards to B are instances of positive sanctions. Not all influence attempts involve sanctions. Actor A may influence actor B by reason, example, or the provision of information without the use of sanctions.
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International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences 1 – “Sanctions in Political Science”, http://www.krivda.net/books/-international_encyclopedia_of_the_social_and_behavioral_sciences_10_-_sanctions_in_political_science_41
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A sanction is an action by one actor (A) intended to affect the behavior of another actor (B) by enhancing or reducing the values available to B Influence attempts using punishments are negative sanctions. Influence attempts using rewards are positive sanctions
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Sanctions include positive incentives
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Exporters attempt to influence importers' intentions within the dependent relationship through the exercise of both positive and negative sanctions.53 Positive sanctions are actual or promised rewards for compliance with exporter's demands; negative sanctions are actual or threatened punishments for noncompliance. These concepts shade into one another because withholding a reward can also be regarded as a punishment. Each day of Soviet oil deliveries to Cuba was a promise that there will be deliveries the next day if Cuba complied with Soviet policy. Implied in that promise, however, is the threat that the Soviet Union would cut off Cuba's lifeline if the Cuban government deviated from Soviet demands.
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Crawford 93 – Beverly Crawford, Director of Research at the Center for German and European Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, Economic Vulnerability in International Relations: The Case of East-West Trade, Investment, and Finance, 1970-1990, p. 65
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Positive sanctions are rewards for compliance negative sanctions are punishments for noncompliance. These concepts shade into one another because withholding a reward can also be regarded as a punishment. Each day of Soviet oil deliveries to Cuba was a promise that there will be deliveries the next day if Cuba complied with Soviet policy. Implied in that promise, however, is the threat that the Soviet Union would cut off Cuba's lifeline if the Cuban government deviated from Soviet demands
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Positive and negative sanctions are conceptually indistinct
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This article seeks to explain how beliefs about others’ intentions affects the strategic choices of states. In general, governments pursue predominately co-operative or competitive strategies toward each other. Cooperative strategies range from passive strategies such as simply abstaining from balancing to strategies that actively foster the growth of another state through economic or security relations. Among cooperative strategies are policies labeled as “engagement” or “appeasement.” Engagement is often defined as a strategy of using positive sanctions in the hopes of achieving peaceful relations or other objectives, while appeasement is a strategy of ceding demands to another state in order to placate and pacify it.11 Competitive strategies, on the other hand, include internal and external balancing, efforts to forestall another state’s growth, or, at an extreme, initiating war.
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Edelstein 2 – David M. Edelstein, Assistant Professor at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, “Managing Uncertainty: Beliefs About Intentions and The Rise of Great Powers”, 12(1), Autumn, p. 5
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Cooperative strategies range from passive strategies such as simply abstaining from balancing to strategies that actively foster the growth of another state through economic or security relations. Among cooperative strategies are policies labeled as “engagement” or “appeasement.” Engagement is often defined as a strategy of using positive sanctions in the hopes of achieving peaceful relations or other objectives, while appeasement is a strategy of ceding demands to another state in order to placate and pacify it
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“Engagement” requires active fostering of economic relations using positive sanctions --- passive ceding on an issue is “appeasement”, which is distinct
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Appeasement and engagement are not identical. Appeasement can be a strategy with short-run aims, while engagement almost necessarily implies a lengthy process and a distant time horizon. More importantly; engagement is a broader, more wide-ranging approach to dealing with an opponent. It places greater emphasis on cooperation on matters of mutual interest, enmeshing the adversary in a web of commercial connections, rules, and institutions, on the development of increased leverage, and on shaping the long-term evolution of the adversary's economic and/ or political system. Appeasement tends to be somewhat narrower in scope, relying more heavily on inducements to remove the causes of conflict and reduce tensions.
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Rock 00 – Stephen R. Rock, Professor of Political Science at Vassar College, Appeasement in International Politics, p. 22-23
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Appeasement and engagement are not identical. Appeasement can be a strategy with short-run aims, while engagement almost necessarily implies a lengthy process and a distant time horizon. More importantly; engagement places greater emphasis on enmeshing the adversary in a web of commercial connections Appeasement tends to be somewhat narrower in scope, relying more heavily on inducements to remove the causes of conflict and reduce tensions
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Inducements that remove conflict but don’t build mutual economic ties are appeasement, not “engagement”
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Economic engagement—a policy of deliberately expanding economic ties with an adversary in order to change the behavior of the target state and effect an improvement in bilateral political relations—is the subject of growing, but still limited, interest in the international relations literature. The bulk of the work on economic statecraft continues to focus on coercive policies such as economic sanctions. The emphasis on negative forms of economic statecraft is not without justification: the use of economic sanctions is widespread and well-documented, and several quantitative studies have shown that adversarial relations between countries tend to correspond to reduced, rather than enhanced, levels of trade (Gowa 1994; Pollins 1989). At the same time, however, relatively little is known about how widespread strategies of economic engagement actually are: scholars disagree on this point, in part because no database cataloging instances of positive economic statecraft exists (Mastanduno 2003). Furthermore, beginning with the classic work of Hirschman (1945), most studies in this regard have focused on policies adopted by great powers. But engagement policies adopted by South Korea and the other two states examined in this study, Singapore and Taiwan, demonstrate that engagement is not a strategy limited to the domain of great power politics; instead, it may be more widespread than previously recognized.
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Kahler 4 – Miles Kahler, Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California, San Diego, and Scott L. Kastner Department of Government and Politics University of Maryland, “Strategic Uses of Economic Interdependence: Engagement Policies in South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan”, November, http://www.bsos.umd.edu/gvpt/kastner/KahlerKastner.doc
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Economic engagement—a policy of deliberately expanding economic ties with an adversary in order to change the behavior of the target state and effect an improvement in bilateral political relations—is the subject of growing interest in i r literature. The bulk of the work continues to focus on economic sanctions
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Even if “engagement” doesn’t require contact, “economic engagement” does --- independent violation
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PRESIDENT OBAMA will have a hard time achieving his foreign policy goals until he masters some key terms and better manages the expectations they convey. Given the furor that will surround the news of America’s readiness to hold talks with Iran, he could start with “engagement” — one of the trickiest terms in the policy lexicon.
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Crocker 9 – Chester Crocker, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, Former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, “Terms of Engagement”, New York Times, 9-13, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/14/opinion/14crocker.html?_r=0
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OBAMA will have a hard time achieving foreign policy goals until he masters key terms he could start with “engagement” — one of the trickiest terms in the policy lexicon
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“Engagement” requires direct talks with the target government
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Second, engagement is sometimes used in a slightly narrower sense to describe the political relationship between specific states. Here there are two distinctive usages: first, engagement can be described as a kind of loosely defined informal association or relationship. The example that has received the most attention in the literature on Asia-Pacific security is that of the United States' engagement of China. In this sense, engagement connotes a relationship of dialogue and involvement, and is often contrasted with "containment" or "isolation".'3 Joseph Nye has said "the attitude that 'engagement' implies is important." He claims the United States' decision to engage China "means that [it] has rejected the argument that conflict is inevitable"." A related use of engagement is to describe formal state policies or strategies. For example, the Clinton administration's "Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement" and policy of "Comprehensive Engagement" with China. Different parts of the government often take very differing attitudes to engagement. Robert Sutter notes that under the George VV. Bush administration, there has been "an institutional gap between the Department of Defense and other US departments as far as interaction and engagement with China is concerned".'5
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Capie 2 – David H. Capie, and Paul M. Evans, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, The Asia-Pacific Security Lexicon, p. 118
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engagement is used in a slightly narrower sense to describe the political relationship between specific states engagement can be described as a kind of loosely defined informal association or relationship In this sense, engagement connotes a relationship of dialogue and involvement, and is often contrasted with "containment" or "isolation"
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“Engagement” must contain dialogue --- isolation is the opposite of the topic
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Viewed broadly, the Bush and Clinton administrations have followed a policy of engagement toward China. Though hard to define precisely, the policy has emphasized preserving and expanding constructive U.S. interaction with the Chinese government, seeking to manage points of difficulty and conflict, while developing areas of common ground. The policy is assumed to meet broad U.S. goals of promoting China's greater interaction with the world, especially the developed world. Such interchange, especially trade, investment, and other economic interchange, is seen to make the Chinese leaders realize how interdependent China has become with the rest of the world. In turn, this is presumed to make Chinese leaders more likely to conform to international norms of salient concern to the United States.
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Sutter 11 – Robert G. Sutter, Professor of Practice of International Affairs at the Elliott School of George Washington University, Making China Policy: Lessons from the Bush and Clinton Administrations, p. 86
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Bush and Clinton followed a policy of engagement toward China. Though hard to define precisely, the policy has emphasized preserving and expanding constructive U.S. interaction with the Chinese government, seeking to manage points of difficulty and conflict, while developing areas of common ground
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“Engagement” involves expanded interaction with a foreign government
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Some arguments against applying economics to nonmarket behavior are particularly interesting from the perspective of this book because they are based on stubborn philosophical fallacies, in particular that of essentialism, the idea that everything has a property that defines it and is, indeed, its metaphysical essence, so that if this property is missing, the thing to which it is supposed to be attached is a different thing from what we thought it was. (Laingdell was an essentialist.) Thus it is argued that economics means the study of markets, so the study of nonmarket behavior is simply outside its scope, is not—cannot be—economics. In fact, "economics," like "law" (or "philosophy," or "democracy," or "religion"), has neither a fixed intension nor a fixed extension; that is, it cannot be defined or the complete set of things to which it applies enumerated. It is not like "rabbit," a word that can be defined and then "attached" unambiguously to each member of a finite set of real-world objects that satisfy the definition. (Well, not quite, because the word is not misused when it is applied to Harvey or the Easter Bunny, or to a timid human being.) Definitions of economics are hopeless. One cannot say that economics is what economists do, because many noneconomists do economics—or do they become economists by doing so? One cannot, at least when attempting to speak precisely, call economics the science of rational choice. There are theories of rational choice that do not resemble economics, either because they assume unstable preferences, which alters many of the predictions of economics, or because they assume a plurality of rational actors within each human being—for example, an impulsive self and a future-regarding self. And there are theories of economics that are nonrational or not consistently rational. These include survival theories in industrial organization (firms that happen to hit on more efficient methods of doing business will grow relative to less efficient firms) and the many macroeconomic theories in which people are assumed to have propensities (to save, to consume, to hold a fixed fraction of their assets in cash) that arc not derived from the rational model ot human behavior. One cannot call economics the study of markets, because other disciplines study markets—for example, sociology and anthropology—and because it begs the question of the proper domain of economics to define economics as the study of markets and refuse to defend the definition.
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Posner 93 – Richard A. Posner, Judge of the U.S. Court Appeals for the Seventh Circuit and Senior Lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School, The Problems of Jurisprudence, p. 367-368
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it is argued that economics means the study of markets, so the study of nonmarket behavior is simply outside its scope, is not—cannot be—economics. In fact, "economics," like "law" (or "philosophy," or "democracy," or "religion"), has neither a fixed intension nor a fixed extension; that is, it cannot be defined or the complete set of things to which it applies enumerated. It is not like "rabbit," a word that can be defined and then "attached" unambiguously to each member of a finite set of real-world objects that satisfy the definition Definitions of economics are hopeless. One cannot say that economics is what economists do, because many noneconomists do economics One cannot call economics the science of rational choice. There are theories of rational choice that do not resemble economics because they assume unstable preferences or because they assume a plurality of rational actors within each human being there are theories of economics that are nonrational or not consistently rational One cannot call economics the study of markets, because other disciplines study markets—for example, sociology and anthropology—and because it begs the question
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Limiting “engagement” based on “economic” is hopeless
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Rather than maintaining the status quo, the US should simultaneously pursue two forms of engagement with Cuba. First, it should actively seek out Castro’s willingness to engage in a conditional relationship and to chart a course towards more satisfactory relations. It should attempt to strike a dialogue with Castro in which reasonable benefits are offered to him in return for reasonable changes. Rather than accentuating the desire for a regime change or immediate democratic elections, US policy-makers should make lesser goals the focus of their policy, as the more ambitious the demands, the less likely Castro is to enter into a process of engagement. For instance, the release of political prisoners and the legitimisation of political parties might be offered in exchange for the selected lifting of elements of the embargo. Regardless of Castro’s reaction to such an approach, benefits would accrue to the United States. If Castro accepted this dialogue, US policy would be seen as pushing forward real political liberalisation on the island; if Castro rejected these attempts, America would still ease tensions with its European allies by demonstrating it was willing to take a more flexible line towards Cuba.
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Haass 00 – Richard Haass & Meghan O’Sullivan, Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program, “Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies”, Survival, 42(2), Summer, p. 15-16
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the US should simultaneously engagement with Cuba. First, it should actively seek out Castro’s willingness to engage in a conditional relationship It should attempt to strike a dialogue with Castro in which reasonable benefits are offered to him in return for reasonable changes the release of political prisoners and the legitimisation of political parties might be offered in exchange for the selected lifting of elements of the embargo
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Topical version of the Aff exists --- dialogue for select concessions in exchange for lifting parts of the embargo
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Many different types of engagement strategies exist, depending on who is engaged, the kind of incentives employed and the sorts of objectives pursued. Engagement may be conditional when it entails a negotiated series of exchanges, such as where the US extends positive inducements for changes undertaken by the target country. Or engagement may be unconditional if it offers modifications in US policy towards a country without the explicit expectation that a reciprocal act will follow. Generally, conditional engagement is geared towards a government; unconditional engagement works with a country’s civil society or private sector in the hopes of promoting forces that will eventually facilitate cooperation.
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Haass 00 – Richard N. Haass, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, and Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Fellow with the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution, “Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies”, Survival, 42(2), Summer, p. 2-3
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Many different types of engagement strategies exist Engagement may be conditional when it entails a negotiated series of exchanges Or engagement may be unconditional if it offers modifications in US policy towards a country without the explicit expectation that a reciprocal act will follow
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“Economic engagement” can be either conditional or unconditional
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MRPC 3.5(c) provides that a lawyer shall not "engage in undignified or discourteous conduct toward the tribunal." (Emphasis added.) We note that the rule does not provide a definition of the word "toward." It is well established that if a term in a court rule is not defined, we interpret the term in accordance with its everyday, plain meaning. Random House Webster's College Dictionary (1997) lists several definitions of the preposition "toward," including "in the direction of" and "with respect to; as regards."
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Taylor 6 – CJ Taylor, Supreme Court Justice on the Supreme Court of Michigan, “Supreme Court of Michigan. Grievance Administrator, Petitioner-Appellant, v. Geoffrey N. Fieger, Respondent-Appellee”, 7-31, http://faculty.law.wayne.edu/henning/ProfResp/Grievance%20Administrator%20v%20Fieger.pdf
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the rule does not provide a definition of the word "toward." It is well established that if a term in a court rule is not defined, we interpret the term in accordance with its everyday, plain meaning. Random House lists several definitions of the preposition "toward," including "in the direction of" and "with respect to; as regards."
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“Toward” means in the direction of --- most predictable interpretation
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OVERVIEW: The patent concerned a loudspeaker system. The inventor alleged that defendant's home entertainment system infringed the patent. Two of the patent claims spoke of speaker drivers mounted in sound cabinets with an axis "directed toward the listening area." Defendant argued that "toward" should be construed as generally perpendicular to the front plane defined by the sound cabinets, while the inventor argued that "toward" should be interpreted as "in the direction of." The court agreed with the inventor. There was nothing in the specification indicating that "toward" conveyed anything other than its ordinary and customary meaning. The word "toward" was used to describe the orientation of the outer drivers in relation to the listening area, and a narrow construction was not required. The court also declined to read into independent claims of the patent a limitation disclaiming all modification of channel signals received by the speaker drivers, as such a limitation would prevent use of the invention with amplifiers that had volume, bass, treble, and balance controls. The independent claims did not require "distinct" left and right channels.
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Gettleman 4 – Robert W. Gettleman, United States District Judge, “T. Andrew Janes, Plaintiff, v. Bose Corporation, Defendant”, 2004 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 8136, 5-7, Lexis
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"toward" should be interpreted as "in the direction of." The court agreed There was nothing in the specification indicating that "toward" conveyed anything other than its ordinary and customary meaning a narrow construction was not required
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Assign the ordinary and customary meaning to “toward” --- it’s the best interpretation
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8. The word " toward," in a statute making insulting language toward a female relative of the prisoner a miti- gation of homicide from murder to manslaughter, was held not to mean simply " to," but to include insulting words about a female relative, whether she was present or absent. Hudson v. State, 6 Tex. App. 565.
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Williams 1894 – Charles F. Williams, Editor of Preview of U.S. Supreme Court Cases, The American and English Encyclopedia of Law, http://archive.org/stream/americanandengl05garlgoog/americanandengl05garlgoog_djvu.txt
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The word " toward," was held not to mean simply " to," but to include insulting words about a relative, whether she was present or absent
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“Toward” is broader than “to” --- no direct contact is required
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The prosecution history establishes that the examiner rejected the claim, citing Fishbein's United States Patent No. 3,873,016 as a reference, because Fishbein moved the forwardmost staple to a position above the anvil surface, from whence a staple driver moved it onto the anvil surface. At that time, Becht's claim called only for means for moving a row of staples "toward said anvil surface" a limitation reading directly on Fishbein. After an agreement between the examiner and Becht's attorney to indicate that the anvil surface, anvil plate, and driver are so related that the "driver does not move [the] staple prior to forming-setting," claim 1 was amended:
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Markey 89 – Markey, Chief Judge, United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, “Senmed, Inc. and Ethicon, Inc., Plaintiffs-Appellees, v. Richard-Allan Medical Industries, Inc., Defendant-Appellant”, 888 F.2d 815; 1989 U.S. App. LEXIS 15811; 12 U.S.P.Q.2D (BNA) 1508, 10-18, Lexis
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Becht's claim called only for moving a row of staples "toward said surface" a limitation reading directly on Fishbein
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“Toward” is distinct from “on”, which requires physical contact
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The preposition to is another common preposition of place. It is normally used with a verb showing movement and shows the result of the movement-- the place or person that the movement was toward or in the direction of. The preposition toward has a similar meaning, but it's not exactly the same: with toward, the direction of the movement is shown, but not the result.
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Oliver 7 – Dennis Oliver, ESL and Developmental English Teacher, “Prepositions: Using "To" and & "Toward" for Places”, Dave’s ESL Café, http://www.eslcafe.com/grammar/prepositions07.html
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The preposition to is another common preposition of place. It is normally used with a verb showing movement and shows the result of the movement-- the place that the movement was toward The preposition toward has a similar meaning, but it's not exactly the same: with toward, the direction of the movement is shown, but not the result
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“Toward” is a direction, not a result
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The dictionary definition of "oriented" is "directed toward" or "placed in relation to." Webster's Third New Int'l Dictionary 1591 (1986). The definition of "toward" as a preposition is "in the direction of." Webster's Third New Int'l Dictionary 2417 (1986). adidas has pointed to no compelling evidence suggesting that the plain and ordinary meaning should be rebutted or limited. The plain meaning of the phrase "oriented toward" does not include the requirement that an object that is "oriented toward" something must be placed physically near the thing. It encompasses only the notion that the object be facing a particular direction.
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Osteen 5 – William L. Osteen, United States District Judge, “Akeva L.L.C., Plaintiff v. Adidas 1 America, Inc., Defendant”, 2005 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 11213, 5-17, Lexis
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The definition of "toward" as a preposition is "in the direction of." no compelling evidence suggesting that the plain and ordinary meaning should be rebutted or limited. The plain meaning of toward" does not include the requirement that an object that is toward" something must be placed physically near the thing. It encompasses only the notion that the object be facing a particular direction
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“Toward” does not require physical proximity --- only a direction
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"At" may be defined as "a function word to indicate that which is the [*15] goal of an action or that toward which an action or motion is directed[,]" while "towards" may be defined as "in the direction of[.]" WEBSTER'S THIRD NEW INTERNATIONAL DICTIONARY 136, 2417 (Phillip Babcock Gove et al. eds., G.&C. Merriam Company 1964). While the two words might have identical meanings in some contexts, we agree with Watkins that they have a slightly different meaning when the context is firearms. In our view, it is commonly understood that firing a gun "at" a person indicates that striking that person is the "goal of the action" while firing a gun "towards" a person does not necessarily indicate such an intent. In other words, one may fire a gun "towards," or "in the direction of," a person without having the slightest intention of hitting him. To the extent that the word "towards" suggested that one could commit attempted murder without the specific intent to kill, its use was incorrect.
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Bradford 9 – Judge on the Indiana Court of Appeals, “Ronald Watkins, Appellant/Defendant/Petitioner, vs. State of Indiana, Appellee/Plaintiff/Respondent”, 2009 Ind. App. Unpub. LEXIS 1709, 10-13, Lexis
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"At" may be defined as "a function word to indicate that which is the goal of an action while "towards" may be defined as "in the direction of[.]" While the two words might have identical meanings in some contexts they have a slightly different meaning when the context is firearms. In our view, it is commonly understood that firing a gun "at" a person indicates that striking is the "goal of the action" while firing "towards" does not necessarily indicate such an intent. In other words, one may fire a gun "towards," or "in the direction of," a person without having the slightest intention of hitting To the extent that the word "towards" suggested that one could commit murder without specific intent its use was incorrect
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“Toward” does not require specific intent
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Mr. Fieger next asserts that MRPC 3.5(c) and MRPC 6.5(a) only apply to comments within a courtroom or its immediate environs. We disagree.
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Taylor 6 – CJ Taylor, Supreme Court Justice on the Supreme Court of Michigan, “Supreme Court of Michigan. Grievance Administrator, Petitioner-Appellant, v. Geoffrey N. Fieger, Respondent-Appellee”, 7-31, http://faculty.law.wayne.edu/henning/ProfResp/Grievance%20Administrator%20v%20Fieger.pdf
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Fieger asserts MRPC only apply to comments within a courtroom We disagree.
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Engagement directed to a third party but about a target country meets “toward”
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Mr. Webster, in his Unabridged Dictionary, gives "toward," when used as a preposition, the following meaning, to wit: "Toward--1. In the direction to. 2. With direction to; in a moral sense, with regard to, regarding. [*576] 3. With ideal tendency to. 4. Nearly." If the Legislature had intended that such insulting words must be used by the deceased to or in the presence of the female, in order to reduce the killing to manslaughter, [**18] some other word than "towards," and one that would have better expressed the idea, would have been used in the statute. It appears clear to us that, on the plainest principles of justice and reason, it could make no difference, so far as the provocation is concerned in this instance, whether the deceased told the wife of the defendant that she was a prostitute, or her husband that he had married a prostitute. The extent of the transport of passion, to extenuate the guilt of the homicide, would be as great in the one case as in the other. And in every case when such a defence is relied on to reduce the killing to manslaughter, the jury must be at liberty to determine whether, under all the circumstances, the insulting words were the real cause which provoked the killing. The court did not err in overruling defendant's motion in arrest of judgment.
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Ector 1879 – P.J. Ector, Judge in the Court of Appeals of Texas, “H. H. Hudson v. The State”, 6 Tex. Ct. App. 565; 1879 Tex. Crim. App. LEXIS 143, Lexis
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Webster gives "toward," when used as a preposition, the following meaning In the direction to If the Legislature had intended that words must be used in the presence some other word than "towards," and one that would have better expressed the idea, would have been used in the statute
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Choice of “toward” is intentional --- reject their unpredictable interpretation
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If I am correct in my understanding of the case of Jenkins v. State, supra, the reasoning of the majority is erroneous. My understanding of the ruling in that case is that the jury was not required to find the defendant guilty of shooting at another, even though the evidence authorized that finding, and that the jury could find a verdict of pointing a weapon at another. [**331] If I am [*706] correct, by refusing to permit the jury to bring in a verdict of pointing a weapon at another by not giving the principle in charge, the court deprived the defendant of a substantial constitutional right. The majority reasons that the error of the court is harmless by reason of the fact that the evidence demands a verdict of guilty of shooting at another. I think the majority goes too far. I think it would be going too far even if the law were contrary to what I think it is with reference to [***10] a finding of pointing a weapon at another. I have never seen such treatment of a defendant's statement, even considering it as unambiguous. But I think that it is ambiguous and that the jury could have found that even though the defendant stated that he "shot at" the two parties he did not mean to say that he aimed directly at them because he specifically denied that he shot with the intent to hit the two men. The majority is depriving a jury of the duty to construe the defendant's testimony. That's a jury's job, not ours, in such a case as this. The following statement from a Mississippi case supports my theory that the defendant could have meant that he shot in "the general direction of" the two men, and not that he was pleading guilty to the charges. The court said: "We cannot see that the words 'at and towards' have the effect of narrowing the charge in the declaration of liability, as contended. These words have somewhat indefinite meaning. In the Century Dictionary 'at' is described as 'a preposition of extremely various use.' It is therein said that, according to its context, it is equivalent to 'near, about under, over, toward.' The same dictionary defines 'toward' [***11] as meaning 'in the direction of.' Anderson's Law Dictionary says the word 'at' 'is somewhat indefinite.' A statute of Indiana made the pointing of a firearm 'at or toward any other person' an offense. In the case of Lange v. State, 95 Ind. 114, it was held that the pointing of a gun at the door of a dwelling wherein [was] the person threatened was a sufficient proof that the gun was pointed 'at or toward.' The court said: 'The word "toward" is of very comprehensive signification, for it means, "in the direction of."' The general significance of these words is controlled by the context. This is so in the case at bar. The charge against the sheriff is his failure in his official duties, consisting [*707] of his improper use and discharge of a firearm. It is admitted that he fired his pistol and that the ball therefrom struck and killed Johnston. The ball went out of the muzzle of the weapon and went into the head of the unfortunate youth. The ball was going in the direction of its victim when it struck. The sheriff, when asked by his own counsel on direct examination, 'Did you shoot at him?' answered, 'Yes.' He evidently understood 'at' to mean in the general direction [***12] of." State v. Cunningham, 107 Miss. 140, 150 (65 S 115, 51 LRA (NS) 1179).
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Eberhardt 68 – Eberhardt, Judge, Court of Appeals of Georgia, “Pennington v. The State”, 117 Ga. App. 701; 161 S.E.2d 327; 1968 Ga. App. LEXIS 1200, 4-8, Lexis
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the words 'at and towards' have somewhat indefinite meaning The court said: 'The word "toward" is of very comprehensive signification, for it means, "in the direction of."' The general significance of these words is controlled by the context
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“Toward” is defined contextually
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Simply put, the issue is whether the naval base is sovereign US territory or a mere piece of rental property with Fidel Castro as the current landlord. The answer to that will either facilitate or greatly complicate US efforts to detain, question, prosecute – and perhaps execute – the 300 suspected Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters being held indefinitely at a makeshift detention camp here. "These people were brought to what we believe to be the territorial jurisdiction of the United States," says Joseph Margulies, a Minneapolis lawyer and Cornell University law professor, who has filed a lawsuit in Washington on behalf of two British men and an Australian being held here. "They are in Guantanamo because the United States brought them to Guantanamo." What that means from a legal standpoint, Mr. Margulies says, is that the detainees are entitled to the protections and guarantees of the US Constitution – including the right not to be held indefinitely without due process of law. In 1950, the US Supreme Court ruled that foreign nationals outside the sovereign territory of the US are not entitled to key constitutional protections. So the essential question is whether Guantanamo is sovereign Cuban or sovereign US territory. Lawyers for the US government say that the 1903 lease agreement addresses the legal status of the naval base with perfect clarity. The lease reads in part: "While on the one hand the United States recognizes the continuance of the ultimate sovereignty of the Republic of Cuba ... on the other hand the Republic of Cuba consents that ... the United States shall exercise complete jurisdiction and control over and within said area." Reading the language of the lease, a federal judge in Los Angeles on Feb. 21 dismissed one of the lawsuits filed on behalf of the Guantanamo detainees. "There is a difference between territorial jurisdiction and sovereignty," writes US District Judge Howard Matz in his decision. "The court finds that Guantanamo Bay is NOT within the sovereign territory of the United States." Erwin Chemerinsky, a constitutional law professor at the University of Southern California who argued the case before Judge Matz, says he is appealing the judge's decision. "I read Article III of the Guantanamo Treaty as making Guantanamo part of the territory of the United States," he says. In effect, the US exercises de facto sovereignty, he says. He has a point. US flags fly on the highest hills here – not a Cuban flag in sight. You need stamps from the US Postal Service to mail a letter. And if you try to buy a Cuban sandwich with Cuban pesos rather than US dollars, you are going to have to skip lunch. But is that sovereignty or just absolute control? David Rivkin, a Washington lawyer and international-law expert, acknowledges that the US exerts unquestioned authority over day-to-day operations at Guantanamo, but that doesn't entitle the US to exercise sovereignty. "Can we sell Guantanamo?" he asks. "No, because it isn't ours." The issue isn't entirely new. In 1993 and 1994, two federal judges – one in New York and one in Miami – ruled that Cuban and Haitian refugees intercepted at sea and housed temporarily at Guantanamo were entitled to constitutional rights because the US exerts "complete control and jurisdiction" at Guantanamo. But the 11th US Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta reached a different conclusion, overturning the Miami judge. "We ... reject the argument that our leased military bases abroad which continue under the sovereignty of foreign nations, hostile or friendly, are 'functionally equivalent' to being within the United States," the appeals court ruled in 1995. What the ruling meant for Cuban and Haitian refugees in Guantanamo at that time was that their mere presence in Guantanamo wasn't enough to trigger legal rights in a US court. Lawyers for the US government are now making the same argument about the suspected Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters. In a brief filed in the Los Angeles case, Assistant US Attorney Douglas Axel writes: "These detainees are aliens, and Guantanamo lies outside the sovereign territory of the United States, and so [existing US Supreme Court precedent] precludes jurisdiction in this or any other United States court." Lawyer Margulies says the 1950 Supreme Court decision on this issue is different in important ways from the Guantanamo situation. It involved the prosecution of suspected German spies in China during World War II. The US military tribunal was conducted in China with the permission of the Chinese government. "Contrast that with Guantanamo Bay, where we have had exclusive control since 1903. Nobody gets in or out without the permission of the US government," he says. "It has its own power and schools. It is a functioning small city under the complete control of the United States. To say it is equivalent to a foreign country is preposterous."
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Richey 2 – Warren Richey, Staff Writer of The Christian Science Monitor, “Detainees' Future May Hinge on Cuba Lease”, The Christian Science Monitor, 3-20, http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0320/p03s01-usju.html
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the issue is whether the naval base is sovereign US territory or mere rental property These people were brought to the territorial jurisdiction of the U S says Margulies Cornell law professor Chemerinsky constitutional law professor at U S C I read Article III of the Guantanamo Treaty as making Guantanamo part of the territory of the U S In effect, the US exercises de facto sovereignty US flags fly on the highest hills here – not a Cuban flag in sight. You need stamps from the US Postal Service to mail a letter. And if you try to buy a Cuban sandwich with Cuban pesos rather than US dollars, you are going to have to skip lunch the 1950 Supreme Court decision is different from Guantanamo Contrast with Guantanamo Bay, where we have had exclusive control since 1903. Nobody gets in or out without the permission of the US government," "It has its own power and schools. It is a functioning small city under the complete control of the United States. To say it is equivalent to a foreign country is preposterous."
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Guantanamo Bay is U.S. territory --- strongest legal arguments are Neg
| 4,893 | 70 | 1,018 | 806 | 11 | 183 | 0.013648 | 0.227047 |
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Hoya-Spartan Scholars
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Topicality
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3,397 |
Change in selected pressures on natural ecosystems 2002-32. For the ecosystem quality component, see the explanation of the Natural Capital Index. Values for the cumulative pressures were derived as described under Natural Capital Index. The maps show the relative increase or decrease in pressure between 2002 and 2032. 'No change' means less than 10 per cent change in pressure over the scenario period; small increase or decrease means between 10 and 50 per cent change; substantial increase or decrease means 50 to 100 per cent change; strong increase means more than doubling of pressure. Areas which switch between natural and domesticated land uses are recorded separately.
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UNEP 2 (United Nations Environmental Program, 10-2, www.unep.org/geo/geo3/english/584.htm)
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small increase or decrease means between 10 and 50 per cent change; substantial increase or decrease means 50 to 100 per cent change
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“Substantial increase” must be at least
| 680 | 39 | 132 | 106 | 6 | 23 | 0.056604 | 0.216981 |
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3,398 |
“Substantial” is a relative word, which, while it must be used with care and discrimination, must nevertheless be given effect, and in a claim of patent allowed considerable latitude of meaning where it is applied to such subject as thickness, as by requiring two parts of a device to be substantially the same thickness, and cannot be held to require them to be of exactly the same thickness. Todd. V. Sears Roebuck & Co., D.C.N.C., 199 F.Supp. 38, 41.
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Words and Phrases 60 (Vol. 40, State – Subway, p. 762)
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“Substantial” is a relative word, which, while it must be used with care and discrimination, must nevertheless be given effect
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Make the best determination available. Substantially must be given meaning
| 453 | 74 | 126 | 79 | 10 | 20 | 0.126582 | 0.253165 |
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3,399 |
2.8. Legal writers who follow the economic value criterion have generally quantified the term "substantial part" by comparing Article 3(1) CISG (substantial) with Article 3(2) CISG (preponderant): substantial being less than preponderant. In this way, legal writers have used the following percentages to quantify substantial: 15%,[14] between 40% and 50%,[15] or more generally 50%.[16] At the same time, other authors, although they have not fixed any numbers in regard to the quantification of the term "substantial" have declared that "preponderant" means "considerably more than 50% of the price" or "clearly in excess of 50%".[17] Thus it seems that for the latter authors, the quantification of the term "substantial" is placed above the 50% figure. Also, some Courts have followed this approach.[18]
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Viscasillas 4 – professor at the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, (Pilar, “Contracts for the Sale of Goods to Be Manufactured or Produced and Mixed Contracts (Article 3 CISG)”, CISG Advisory Council Opinion No. 4, 10-24, http://cisgac.com/default.php?ipkCat=128&ifkCat=146&sid=146)
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legal writers have used the following percentages to quantify substantial: 15% between 40% and 50% or more generally 50
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Using context removes the arbitrariness of assigning a fixed percentage to “substantial”
| 807 | 88 | 119 | 121 | 12 | 19 | 0.099174 | 0.157025 |
Topicality - HSS 2013.html5
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Hoya-Spartan Scholars
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Topicality
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2013
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