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NAFTA¶ Entering into effect in 1994, by 2002 the North American Free Trade Agreement had almost tripled U.S.-Mexico trade, had made both countries more competitive internationally,19 and had propelled Mexico's economy into a world-class manufacturing and assembly powerhouse. By 2008, more than $1 billion of duty-free exports and imports were crossing the Mexico-U.S. border every single day. Still, NAFTA sparked controversies in both countries,20 spawning countless myths in the process. But some of the more widespread myths are contradicted by facts that are too plain to be misunderstood:¶ Myth No. 1: NAFTA has cost the United States jobs. Fact: U.S. employment rose from 110.8 million people in 1993 to 137.6 million in 2007, an increase of 24 percent. The average unemployment rate was 5.1 percent during the post-NAFTA period 1994-2007, compared to 7.1 percent during the pre-NAFTA period 1980-1993.21¶ Myth No. 2: NAFTA has hurt the U.S. manufacturing base. Fact: U.S. manufacturing output rose by 58 percent between 1993 and 2006, as compared to 42 percent between 1980 and 1993.22¶ Myth No. 3: NAFTA has suppressed U.S. wages. Fact: U.S. business sector real (i.e., adjusted for inflation) hourly compensation rose by 1.5 percent each year between 1993 and 2007, for a total of 23.6 percent over the full period. During 1979-1993, the annual rate of real hourly compensation rose by 0.7 percent each year, or 11 percent over the full 14-year period.23¶ Myth No. 4: NAFTA has reduced wages in Mexico. Fact: Mexican wages grew steadily after the 1994 peso crisis, reached precrisis levels in 1997, and have increased each year since. Several studies conclude that Mexican industries that export or that are in regions with a higher concentration of foreign investment and trade also have higher wages.24¶ Myth No. 5: NAFTA has done nothing to improve the environment. Fact: NAFTA created two binational institutions that certify and finance environmental infrastructure projects to provide a clean and healthy environment for residents along the U.S.-Mexico border. To date, they have provided nearly $1 billion for 135 environmental infrastructure projects with a total estimated cost of $2.89 billion and allocated $55.1 million in assistance and grants for over 450 other border environmental projects. The Mexican government has also made substantial new investments in environmental protection, increasing the federal budget for the environmental sector by 81 percent between 2003 and 2008.25¶ Myth No. 6: NAFTA has made Mexico's poor farmers poorer. Fact: Based on three independent studies, the World Bank concludes that “the decline of Mexican corn prices was a long term trend that preceded NAFTA, and…government producer-price subsidies actually kept such prices above what would have been the case under NAFTA without domestic price subsidies.26
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Becker 11—Thomas H. Becker is an economic development authority and management trainer specializing in Latin America. He has lived, operated businesses, or worked in 16 Latin American countries, and currently serves as advisor to government agencies, private businesses, universities, and NGOs. His academic background includes degrees in Latin American American Studies and a Ph.D. in International Business. He has served on the Business faculty of five universities in the U.S. and Latin America, has written over 100 articles and book chapters in English and Spanish, and is a former President and Managing Director of the Business Association of Latin American Studies. [Becker, Thomas H.“Doing Business in the New Latin America: Keys to Profit in America’s Next-Door Markets”—2nd Edition. Pg. 50-52]//MM
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Entering into effect in 1994, by 2002 the North American Free Trade Agreement had almost tripled U.S.-Mexico trade, had made both countries more competitive internationally and had propelled Mexico's economy into a world-class manufacturing and assembly powerhouse. NAFTA sparked controversies in both countries spawning countless myths in the process. But some of the more widespread myths are contradicted by facts that are too plain to be misunderstood U.S. employment rose from 110.8 million people in 1993 to 137.6 million in 2007, an increase of 24 percent. U.S. manufacturing output rose by 58 percent between 1993 and 2006, as compared to 42 percent between 1980 and 1993. U.S. business sector real (i.e., adjusted for inflation) hourly compensation rose by 1.5 percent each year between 1993 and 2007, for a total of 23.6 percent over the full period Mexican wages grew steadily after the 1994 peso crisis, reached precrisis levels in 1997, and have increased each year since Mexican industries with a higher concentration of foreign investment and trade also have higher wages. NAFTA created two binational institutions that certify and finance environmental infrastructure projects to provide a clean and healthy environment for residents along the U.S.-Mexico border. Based on three independent studies, the World Bank concludes that “the decline of Mexican corn prices was a long term trend that preceded NAFTA, and…government producer-price subsidies actually kept such prices above what would have been the case under NAFTA without domestic price subsidies.26
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Your NAFTA bad evidence is wrong: six reasons
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[Simon Kapenda. Economist and entrepreneur. NAFTA, the Good, the Best, and the Ugly for the Americas. http://princesimon.wordpress.com/2009/02/05/nafta-the-good-the-best-and-the-ugly-of-the-free-trade/. February 5, 2009.//SRSL] Each of the NAFTA’s three-member countries seems to have amassed a great success as a result of international trade, with Mexico and Canada being the most beneficial nations. “Trade liberalization has transformed and modernized Mexico’s vibrant economy by successfully boosting trade and investment flows. Within just a few years, Mexico’s exports have diversified from primarily oil to include an array of manufactured products, making Mexico one of the largest exporters in the world. While, one in five jobs in Canada is linked to international trade, and Canada’s prosperity is built on its openness to international trade and investment. As such, the North American continental partnership is without a doubt an important competitive advantage for Canada. Canada is using this continental platform as a way to help Canadian business embrace commercial opportunities around the world. As for the United States, the largest and most diversified economy in the world, its market economy whose businesses are world leaders in the manufacturing and high-tech sectors, especially computers, medical equipment, and aerospace, and in services, including financial services and telecommunications, and in agriculture, may have benefited equally” (NAFTANow.org).
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Kapenda 09
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NAFTA, the Good, the Best, and the Ugly for the Americas. Each of the NAFTA’s three-member countries seems to have amassed a great success as a result of international trade, with Mexico and Canada being the most beneficial nations. “Trade liberalization has transformed and modernized Mexico’s vibrant economy by successfully boosting trade and investment flows. Within just a few years, Mexico’s exports have diversified from primarily oil to include an array of manufactured products, making Mexico one of the largest exporters in the world.
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NAFTA is fine now—all three countries are benefiting
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Has NAFTA failed? The short answer is no. Though it will take many more years before a meaningful assessment of the agreement can be made, NAFTA's expected benefits are beginning to materialize. Trade among the three NAFTA countries has been expanding to record levels, and the number of U.S.-Mexican business partnerships is on the rise. Moreover, despite the 45 percent real devaluation of the peso, the 7 percent drop in Mexican output, and Mexico's 22 percent fall in real wages during 1995, U.S. exports to Mexico were much less affected than Japanese or European exports, largely due to NAFTA. Indeed, while exports to Mexico from the rest of the world (notably Japan and the European Union) fell by about 25 percent, U.S. exports contracted by less than 2 percent. Despite these positive trends, many Americans within Congress and outside it are proclaiming that NAFTA was a mistake. To a large extent, the statements against NAFTA are based on erroneous beliefs or egregious distortions. NAFTA is blamed for U.S. job losses or declining living standards of workers, particularly among unskilled persons. In reality, the impact of NAFTA on gross job displacement in the United States has been negligible. Furthermore, there is some evidence that the net employment effect (the difference between jobs displaced and jobs created) has been positive. Another argument used against NAFTA is the fact that following the Mexican peso crisis the United States is running a trade deficit with Mexico. However, unless it is the result of restrictions in market access, a deficit with any one country is by no means a cause of distress in the country running the deficit. NAFTA's success must be measured by the total amount of trade it creates, regardless of which country is in deficit. Finally, though some of NAFTA's critics argue that the agreement was a cause of the Mexican peso crisis, in reality the crisis was caused by factors unrelated to NAFTA. In fact, NAFTA is an important contributing factor to Mexico's economic recovery because of its impact on export performance and foreign direct investment flows.
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Lustig, 12 (PhD in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley, President of the Universidad de las Américas-Puebla, Senior Advisor and Chief of the Poverty and Inequality Unit, Department of Social Programs and Sustainable Development at the Inter-American Development Bank Director of the 2000/2001 World Development Report (Nora C., “NAFTA: Setting the Record Straight” 2012 Updated, http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/classes/econ455/lapan/Readings/NAFTA,%20Setting%20the%20Record%20Straight.pdf)
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Has NAFTA failed no NAFTA's expected benefits are beginning to materialize. Trade has been expanding to record levels, .S.-Mexican business partnerships is on the rise. despite devaluation of the peso U.S. exports were much less affected than Japanese or European exports, due to NAFTA while exports fell by about 25 percent, U.S. exports contracted by less than 2 percent. Despite these positive trends, Americans within Congress are proclaiming NAFTA was a mistake the statements against NAFTA are based on erroneous beliefs or egregious distortions NAFTA is blamed for U.S. job losses or declining living standards In reality the impact of NAFTA on gross job displacement in the United States has been negligible. there is evidence net employment has been positive. deficit with any one country is by no means a cause of distress in the country running the deficit NAFTA's critics argue the agreement was a cause crisis in reality the crisis was caused by factors unrelated to NAFTA NAFTA is an important contributing factor to economic recovery because of its impact on export performance and foreign direct investment flows.
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NAFTA is awesome and the critics are wrong
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"The problem of rural poverty cannot be attributed to NAFTA but¶ must be attacked in the very structure of Mexico's agricultural sector. In¶ fact, Mexico’s agricultural exports, including processed foods, within¶ NAFTA grew by 9.4 percent a year between 1994 and 2001, whereas¶ agr0-food imports grew by a lower amount of 6.9 percent a year. The¶ composition of the export and import growth has not had the same¶ effect on different products and on the various regions of the country¶ where the products are grown and cultivated; some regions have benefited, others have suffered.
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Weintraub ‘4 – holds the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at CSIS and is simultaneously director of the Americas Program at the center (Sidney, “Trade, Investment, and Economic Growth,” from chapter 1 of “NAFTA’s Impact on North America: The First Decade,” edited by Sidney Weintraub, published 2004, CSIS)//ER
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"The problem of rural poverty cannot be attributed to NAFTA but¶ must be attacked in the very structure of Mexico's agricultural sector. Mexico’s agricultural exports, including processed foods, within¶ NAFTA grew by 9.4 percent a year between 1994 and 2001, whereas¶ agr0-food imports grew by a lower amount of 6.9 percent a year
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NAFTA doesn’t hurt agribusiness – exports have increased more than imports
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Myth No. 6: NAFTA has made Mexico's poor farmers poorer. Fact: Based on three independent studies, the World Bank concludes that “the decline of Mexican corn prices was a long term trend that preceded NAFTA, and…government producer-price subsidies actually kept such prices above what would have been the case under NAFTA without domestic price subsidies.26
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Becker 11—Thomas H. Becker is an economic development authority and management trainer specializing in Latin America. He has lived, operated businesses, or worked in 16 Latin American countries, and currently serves as advisor to government agencies, private businesses, universities, and NGOs. His academic background includes degrees in Latin American American Studies and a Ph.D. in International Business. He has served on the Business faculty of five universities in the U.S. and Latin America, has written over 100 articles and book chapters in English and Spanish, and is a former President and Managing Director of the Business Association of Latin American Studies. [Becker, Thomas H.“Doing Business in the New Latin America: Keys to Profit in America’s Next-Door Markets”—2nd Edition. Pg 52]//MM
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Based on three independent studies, the World Bank concludes that “the decline of Mexican corn prices was a long term trend that preceded NAFTA, and…government producer-price subsidies actually kept such prices above what would have been the case under NAFTA without domestic price subsidies.26
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Their problems weren’t caused by NAFTA
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Sitting in a room at a packing plant near Immokalee in southwest Florida with about 50 migrant laborers, I learned that I had a right to earn a minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, and could take regular breaks in a shady area provided by the farm—including a lunch break. I was told exactly what constituted a full bucket of tomatoes when I was working on a "piece," or per-bucket basis. For some of my work, I would get an extra penny per pound for the tomatoes I picked—which amounted to a 50-percent raise. I was informed that sexual harassment would not be tolerated. And finally I received a card with the number of a 24-hour confidential help line. "If you see a problem, talk to someone—your friends, your boss, us, anyone, just say something," said Lucas Benitez, one of the members of the Coalition of Immokalee Workers (CIW), a grassroots labor rights group that was responsible for the lesson. Until this year none of my classmates, many of whom were veteran tomato workers, had ever attended a session like this one, where their fellow workers outlined their new rights and responsibilities under the CIW's Fair Food Code of Conduct as employees of Pacific Tomato Growers, a major corporation that markets its products under the brand names Sunripe and Suncoast.¶ Last November, the Florida Tomato Growers Exchange, a cooperative of agribusinesses that grow the vast majority of Florida tomatoes, signed the Fair Food agreement with the CIW. The CIW had been working since 1993 to improve the lot of farm workers. With a few pen strokes, the Florida tomato industry went from being one of the most repressive employers in the country (nine cases involving abject slavery in Florida fields have been prosecuted in the past 15 years) to being on the road to becoming the most progressive groups in the fruit and vegetable industry.¶ "You cannot believe how big a change it has been," said one CIW member, recalling that the last time she had tried to gain entry to Pacific's facility in the mid-1990s, she'd been met by locked gates and armed sheriff's deputies. "It's like a time machine has suddenly whisked us from a Charles Dickens workhouse to an auto plant in the 21st century. The difference in attitude is that great."¶ After signing the agreement, the growers and CIW members decided that the 2010-2011 growing season would be a transitional year. Two companies—Pacific and Six L's—would work with the CIW to create a template for how the words of the agreement would be translated into actions in the fields. The course I attended was one result of those efforts. The plan is that all 33,000 Florida tomato pickers will receive similar training next year. Together, the workers group and the growers also decided what would constitute a full bucket of tomatoes. They instituted a safety program that includes regular breaks in shady areas, establishes a complaints line, banned all forms of sexual harassment, and took steps to ensure that any incidents of slavery were identified and prosecuted. ¶ Every major fast food chain and food service corporation has agreed to the Fair Foods principles and, as a key part of the deal, has begun to funnel an extra penny per pound for the tomatoes they buy directly to workers. But unfortunately, a single dark cloud still hangs over the efforts of the CIW and the growers. With the notable exception of Whole Foods Market, not a single supermarket chain has come aboard. Supermarkets buy about half of Florida's tomatoes, so they represent an enormous amount of lost wages to workers. The noncompliance of the grocery giants also deprives the workers of the moral and financial suasion that such large buyers can exert to make growers adhere to the agreement.¶ In recent months, the CIW has intensified its efforts against grocery chains, holding a series of demonstrations at Publix Super Markets, Stop & Shop, Giant Food Supermarkets, and Trader Joe's. "We didn't come this far by fainting if companies didn't come to the table the first time we called," said the coalition's Greg Asbed.
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Their author, Easterbrook 2011—James Beard Award-winning journalist Barry Estabrook was a contributing editor at Gourmet magazine for eight years, writing investigative articles about where food comes from. He was the founding editor of Eating Well magazine and has written for the New York Times Magazine, Reader's Digest, Men's Health, Audubon, and the Washington Post, and contributes regularly to The Atlantic Monthly's website. His work has been anthologized in the Best American Food Writing series, and he has been interviewed on numerous television and radio shows. He lives and grows tomatoes in his garden in Vermont. [“How the Florida Tomato Industry Went from Being One of the Most Repressive Employers to the Most Progressive”, April 21, 2011. http://www.alternet.org/story/150708/how_the_florida_tomato_industry_went_from_being_one_of_the_most_repressive_employers_to_the_most_progressive]//MM
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Sitting in a room at a packing plant near Immokalee in southwest Florida with about 50 migrant laborers, I learned that I had a right to earn a minimum wage of $7.25 an hour, and could take regular breaks in a shady area provided by the farm—including a lunch break. I received a card with the number of a 24-hour confidential help line. "If you see a problem, talk to someone—your friends, your boss, us, anyone, just say something," said Lucas Benitez, one of the members of the Coalition of Immokalee Workers (CIW), a grassroots labor rights group that was responsible for the lesson. Until this year none of my classmates, many of whom were veteran tomato workers, had ever attended a session like this one, where their fellow workers outlined their new rights and responsibilities under the CIW's Fair Food Code of Conduct as employees of Pacific Tomato Growers Last November, the Florida Tomato Growers Exchange, a cooperative of agribusinesses that grow the vast majority of Florida tomatoes, signed the Fair Food agreement with the CIW. The CIW had been working since 1993 to improve the lot of farm workers. With a few pen strokes, the Florida tomato industry went from being one of the most repressive employers in the country (nine cases involving abject slavery in Florida fields have been prosecuted in the past 15 years) to being on the road to becoming the most progressive groups in the fruit and vegetable industry. The plan is that all 33,000 Florida tomato pickers will receive similar training next year. Together, the workers group and the growers also decided what would constitute a full bucket of tomatoes. They instituted a safety program that includes regular breaks in shady areas, establishes a complaints line, banned all forms of sexual harassment, and took steps to ensure that any incidents of slavery were identified and prosecuted. The noncompliance of the grocery giants also deprives the workers of the moral and financial suasion that such large buyers can exert to make growers adhere to the agreement.¶ In recent months, the CIW has intensified its efforts against grocery chains, holding a series of demonstrations at Publix Super Markets, Stop & Shop, Giant Food Supermarkets, and Trader Joe's.
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SQUO Solves—Coalition of Immokalee Workers
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NAFTA Good-Bad - Michigan7 2013 PCFJV.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
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There is no shortage of statistics making Nafta look bad. Free traders' claims in the early '90s that Nafta would create hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs, turn the slight deficit with Mexico into a $10 billion annual trade surplus, and eliminate illegal immigration proved wildly off the mark. Instead, America's deficit with Mexico passed $74 billion in 2007. The U.S. has also shed 3 million manufacturing jobs since the early '90s.¶ Whether these ugly stats have much to do with Nafta is far from clear. America's debt-fueled spending binge and low savings rate are mainly to blame for the current-account deficit. Many Americans lost jobs as textile, auto parts, and electronics production migrated to Mexico. But China's export takeoff has been a far bigger factor in job losses of the past five years. Investment in automation and information technology has led to massive reductions of factory workers everywhere, including China. The last time the Congressional Budget Office studied Nafta, in 2003, it concluded the impact of the treaty on U.S. gross domestic product was minuscule.¶ Trade boosters, meanwhile, cite average 3.7% annual growth in the U.S. since 1993, sharp drops in unemployment, and record exports of $982 billion last year. Trade now accounts for 27% of American economic output annually, compared with around 20% in 1993. Gary C. Hufbauer and Jeffrey J. Schott of Washington's Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics calculate that U.S. exports to nations with which it has free-trade deals, such as Singapore and Australia, have grown far faster than with the rest of the world. "By any definition, free-trade agreements have been a plus," contends U.S. Trade Representative Susan C. Schwab.
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Engardio et. al 8 (Pete Engardio, Geri Smith, and Jane Sasseen, Contributors to the Bloomberg Businessweek Magazine, “What You Don’t Know abuot NAFTA”, http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2008-03-18/what-you-dont-know-about-nafta)
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There is no shortage of statistics making Nafta look bad. Free traders' claims in the early '90s that Nafta would create hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs, turn the slight deficit with Mexico into a $10 billion annual trade surplus, and eliminate illegal immigration proved wildly off the mark. Instead, America's deficit with Mexico passed $74 billion in 2007. The U.S. has also shed 3 million manufacturing jobs since the early '90s.¶ Whether these ugly stats have much to do with Nafta is far from clear. America's debt-fueled spending binge and low savings rate are mainly to blame for the current-account deficit. China's export takeoff has been a far bigger factor in job losses of the past five years. Investment in technology has led to massive reductions of factory workers everywhere, The last time the Congressional Budget Office studied Nafta, it concluded the impact of the treaty on U.S. gross domestic product was minuscule.¶ Trade boosters cite average 3.7% annual growth in the U.S. since 1993 Trade now accounts for 27% of American economic output annually, compared with around 20% in 1993. U.S. exports to nations with which it has free-trade deals, have grown far faster than with the rest of the world. "By any definition, free-trade agreements have been a plus," contends U.S. Trade Representative Susan C. Schwab.
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Alt causes to deficit with Mexico—studies prove free trade and NAFTA good
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The U.S. manufacturing sector grew in June after a decline in the previous month, boosted by an increase in new orders and stronger production, a leading industry survey showed on Monday.¶ The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the manufacturing index, also known as the purchasing managers index (PMI), stood at 50.9 percent in June, up from 49 percent in May.¶ A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding, while a reading below 50 percent indicates contraction.¶ The manufacturing sector expanded in June for the fifth time in the first six months of this year.¶ The new orders index rose to 51.9 percent last month from 48.8 percent in May. The production index advanced to 53.4 percent while the employment index slipped to 48.7 percent.¶ Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 reported growth last month including electrical equipment and machinery. Four industries including computer and electronic products reported contraction, said the ISM.¶ Manufacturing has been a bright spot in output and employment since the recession ended in June 2009. But the sector has shown signs of fluctuation in recent months.
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Xinhua General News Service 7/1 [“U.S. Manufacturing Sector expands in June.” July 1, 2013. lexis]//MM
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The U.S. manufacturing sector grew , boosted by an increase in new orders and stronger production, a leading industry survey showed on Monday The manufacturing sector expanded in June for the fifth time in the first six months of this year.¶ The new orders index rose to 51.9 percent The production index advanced to 53.4 percent Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 reported growth last month including electrical equipment and machinery. Manufacturing has been a bright spot ince the recession ended in June 2009.
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DO NOT READ WITH THE MANUFACTURING SCENARIO
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Compare the decline in UK factories with what has been happening in the US. The latest figures show that the US manufacturing sector - fuelled on cheap shale gas - grew three times faster (6.2 per cent) than overall US GDP (2.2 per cent) in 2012, with durable goods up four times faster (9.1 per cent), according to an analysis from the American Enterprise Institute. One-third of US GDP growth can be attributed to manufacturing, even though factories make up just 12 per cent of the economy.
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Heath 4/26—Allister Heath is the editor of City A.M. and writes a weekly column for the Daily Telegraph. [“Growth is back - but big chunks of the economy still in crisis” April 26, 2013. City A.M.]//MM
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the US manufacturing sector - fuelled on cheap shale gas - grew three times faster than overall US GDP (2.2 per cent) in 2012, with durable goods up four times faster One-third of US GDP growth can be attributed to manufacturing, even though factories make up just 12 per cent of the economy.
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Manufacturing High Growth Now, Factories not key to manufacturing
| 493 | 65 | 292 | 87 | 9 | 53 | 0.103448 | 0.609195 |
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While Canada’s foreign policy following the 1995 Canada in the World white paper may have been conceptualized as having three equal “pillars”, with the “third pillar” being the promotion of values and culture, the primary concern, naturally, was the “first pillar” – trade. As the white paper put it, “The promotion of prosperity and employment is at the heart of the Government’s agenda. International markets present tremendous opportunities for Canadians, given the quality of our products and services. We can compete with the best in the world… We also wish to see other countries and regions prosper… Prosperity will allow others to sustain more mature and mutually beneficial economic partnerships with Canada and to be increasingly open to our values. This should not have come as a surprise. NAFTA, which came into force in January 1994, only served to highlight Canada’s reliance on the global economy. Since the early 1980s, growth rates in the total value of foreign direct investment stock had increased in concert with those of trade. Foreign direct investment in Canada was the second highest in the G8 as a share of gross domestic product. Flows in bilateral-investment stock between Canada and the United States, which totaled Can$80 billion in 198, had surpassed Can$400 billion by 2004; bilateral trade between the two coutnries grew 10 percent annually between 1994 and 2004, and almost 80 percent of Canadian exports went to the United States. Trade and investment with Mexico increased evenf aster, although the level of pre-existing integration was considerably lower. By 2004, Mexico was Canada’s sixth-largets export market, while Canada had become Mexico’s second-largest. This is remarkable considering that in 1990, Mexico had ranked sixteenth among Canada’s export markets.¶ Despite the absolute increases in Canada’s exports and foreign direct investment stock, Canada had been losing its relative share in the global market between 1980 and 2002. The Canadian share of global foreign direct investment stock was 7.8 percent in1980; by 1990 it was 6 percent, and in 2002, it had declined to 3 percent. As noted in Chapter 1, Canada’s share of foreign direct investment had also declined by one-half between 1009 and 2002 in North America alone, despite the increasing economic integration of the continent. Certainly, Canada was becoming a less attractive destination for international business, although it is difficult to isolate the precise political and economic factors in this decline. According the 2005 annual report on Canada’s trade and investment performance, a general decline in US outward investment, which began in the early 1980s and included the share destined for Canada, was a likely factor. The report also noted that “the emergence of new global investors from who Canada was a less significant investment location,” combined with Canada’s nationalistic economic policies of the late 1970s and early 1980s, also contributed to the decline.¶ At the core of the government’s response to reverse its declining global market was an emphasis on “forging partnerships with other levels of government… and undertaking pilot projects to gain a better understanding of foreign investor attitudes toward Canada.” This “new approach” was the genesis of Team Canada Inc and the Team Canada Missions, which meant that investment promotion became an integral component in large scale advocacy campaigns.
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Potter 9 (Evan J. Potter, “Branding Canada: Projecting Canada’s Soft Power Through Public Diplomacy”)
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“The promotion of prosperity and employment is at the heart of the Government’s agenda. International markets present tremendous opportunities for Canadians, given the quality of our products and services. We can compete with the best in the world NAFTA, which came into force in January 1994, only served to highlight Canada’s reliance on the global economy. Flows in bilateral-investment stock between Canada and the United States, which totaled Can$80 billion in 198, had surpassed Can$400 billion by 2004; bilateral trade between the two coutnries grew 10 percent annually between 1994 and 2004, and almost 80 percent of Canadian exports went to the United States. Trade and investment with Mexico increased evenf aster, Despite the absolute increases in Canada’s exports and foreign direct investment stock, Canada had been losing its relative share in the global market between 1980 and 2002. Canada was becoming a less attractive destination for international business, although it is difficult to isolate the precise political and economic factors in this decline. The report also noted that “the emergence of new global investors from who Canada was a less significant investment location,”
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Soft power declined in Canada as a result of NAFTA—negative international perception
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Mexican organizations have begun to come together after years of divisions to respond to the food crisis and fix the badly broken system. They recently succeeded in reforming the Mexican constitution to include the right to food. Now the battle is on to adapt the rural budget to make that right a reality.¶ Small farmer organizations have joined with family farm organizations in the United States and Canada to call for the renegotiation of NAFTA to remove basic foods and agricultural production from the agreement. They recognize, though, that the Obama administration's about-face in its stated commitments to fair trade reforms has left little political space for change.¶ Instead, peasant organizations in all three countries are looking to grassroots efforts and movements to fix the food system before the crisis worsens. As Mexican organizations struggle for programs to address threats to food and agriculture, U.S. organizations are seeing an opportunity to join their demands to the Occupy Wall Street movement across the country. One of the grievances listed in the OWS Declaration of the New York City General Assembly reads: "They (large corporations) have poisoned the food supply through negligence, and undermined the farming system through monopolization." Food activists are now bringing issues of corporate concentration in food, commodity speculation and price hikes, and free trade to the general protests.¶ Corporate control of the food system locked in by NAFTA not only starves people in Mexico. It locks in a profoundly unhealthy food system for the entire region. No one expects the situation to get better by itself. As the crisis deepens, citizen movements are again heating up and seeking each other out across borders to protect their health, their livelihoods and their rights. In the future, what we eat, how we eat, and if we eat will depend on their efforts.
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Carlsen ’11 – Foreign Policy In Focus columnist Laura Carlsen is director of the Americas Program for the Center for International Policy in Mexico City (Laura, “NAFTA Is Starving Mexico,” Foreign Policy in Focus, 9/20/11, ProQuest)//ER
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Mexican organizations have begun to come together after years of divisions to respond to the food crisis and fix the badly broken system. the battle is on to adapt the rural budget to make that right a reality.¶ Small farmer organizations have joined with family farm organizations in the United States and Canada to call for the renegotiation of NAFTA to remove basic foods and agricultural production from the agreement. peasant organizations in all three countries are looking to grassroots efforts and movements to fix the food system before the crisis worsens. They have poisoned the food supply through negligence, and undermined the farming system through monopolization Food activists are now bringing issues of corporate concentration in food, commodity speculation and price hikes, and free trade to the general protests. Corporate control of the food system locked in by NAFTA not only starves people in Mexico. It locks in a profoundly unhealthy food system for the entire region. No one expects the situation to get better by itself. As the crisis deepens, citizen movements are again heating up and seeking each other out across borders to protect their health, their livelihoods and their rights. In the future, what we eat, how we eat, and if we eat will depend on their efforts.
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NAFTA should remove food and agricultural production from the trade agreement
| 1,895 | 77 | 1,295 | 302 | 11 | 212 | 0.036424 | 0.701987 |
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The Mexican government has not only emphasized its need for environmental infrastructure funding and technical assistance but is also using this same concept as it attempts a greater level of economic integration with Central America. In June 2001, President Fox announced a new development program for southern Mexico and Central America, called the Plan Puebla-Panama (New York Times 2001). Funding sources for the program have not been identified, but it was President¶ Fox's intention to promote tourism, trade, education, environmental¶ protection, and disaster relief planning over a 20-year period for at nine-¶ state region of Mexico and seven countries of Central America. Presi-¶ dent Fox’s plan also envisioned a series of infrastructure linkages, in-¶ cluding roads, power lines, telephone lines, and natural gas grids in this¶ region, and ultimately linking the region to the rest of North America.¶ Environmentalists' demands for the U.S.-Chilean FTA demonstrate¶ that many of the principles incorporated into the NAAEC remain¶ strong priorities. In a November 2002 letter written to U.S. trade repre- sentative Robert Zoellick, four United States-based environmental¶ groups asked for the following provisions: an independent citizen petition mechanism aimed at focusing at-¶ tention on a governments failure to enforce its own environmen-¶ tal law; a commitment from each country to effectively enforce its envi-¶ ronmental laws;¶ a commitment on the part of each country not to weaken its envi-¶ ronmental standards;¶ a commitment to strengthen environmental standards, enforce¶ environmental laws, and strengthen the capacity to prevent and¶ mitigate trade-related environmental effects; and¶ a joint environmental council.¶ To enhance the benefits of free trade and make trade negotiations¶ Operate as efficiently as possible, the Office of the U.S. Trade Represen-¶ tative has established a unit aimed at enhancing the trade capacity of¶ U.S. trading partners. Although environmental issues are not specifi-¶ cally addressed within this unit, the creation of such an office points to¶ the growing recognition that a governments performance across many¶ functions has a direct bearing not only on its capacity to trade but also¶ 0n its ability to sustain the benefits of trade. In this sense, a govern-¶ ment's environmental capacity-the ability to preserve and protect its¶ resource base-is directly tied to the economic growth and prosperity¶ that it hopes to enjoy from expanding trade relations.
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Gilbreath and Ferretti ‘4 – Gilbreath was a secior associate of the CSIS, currently serves as an international policy specialist for the US EPA, Ferretti is the chief of the environment division of the Inter-American Development Bank (Jan and Janine, “Mixing Environment and Trade Policies under NAFTA,” Chapter 4 of “NAFTA’s Impact on North America: The First Decade,” edited by Sidney Weintraub, published 2004, CSIS)//ER
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The Mexican government has not only emphasized its need for environmental infrastructure funding and technical assistance but is also using this same concept as it attempts a greater level of economic integration with Central America Fox announced a new development program for southern Mexico and Central America, called the Plan Puebla-Panama it was President¶ Fox's intention to promote tourism, trade, education, environmental¶ protection, and disaster relief planning over a 20-year period for at nine-¶ state region of Mexico and seven countries of Central America. Presi-¶ dent Fox’s plan also envisioned a series of infrastructure linkages, in-¶ cluding roads, power lines, telephone lines, and natural gas grids in this¶ region, and ultimately linking the region to the rest of North America.¶ many of the principles incorporated into the NAAEC remain¶ strong priorities four United States-based environmental¶ groups asked for the following provisions: an independent citizen petition mechanism aimed at focusing at-¶ tention on a governments failure to enforce its own environmen-¶ tal law; a commitment from each country to effectively enforce its envi-¶ ronmental laws;¶ a commitment on the part of each country not to weaken its envi-¶ ronmental standards;¶ a commitment to strengthen environmental standards, enforce¶ environmental laws, and strengthen the capacity to prevent and¶ mitigate trade-related environmental effects; and¶ a joint environmental council.¶ To enhance the benefits of free trade and make trade negotiations¶ Operate as efficiently as possible, the Office of the U.S. Trade Represen-¶ tative has established a unit aimed at enhancing the trade capacity of¶ U.S. trading partners the creation of such an office points to¶ the growing recognition that a governments performance across many¶ functions has a direct bearing not only on its capacity to trade but also¶ 0n its ability to sustain the benefits of trade a govern-¶ ment's environmental capacity-the ability to preserve and protect its¶ resource base-is directly tied to the economic growth and prosperity¶ that it hopes to enjoy from expanding trade relations.
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Environmental provisions should be established to enhance the trade capacity of Mexico
| 2,518 | 87 | 2,156 | 375 | 12 | 322 | 0.032 | 0.858667 |
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Mexico had the right to impose tariffs until 2008 but largely chose not to do so. ¶ As we’ve shown, the TRQ allowed Mexico the policy space to compensate for U.S. corn ¶ dumping with tariffs. Now the government’s policy options are more constrained. Short ¶ of renegotiating NAFTA, or pursuing a countervailing duty claim based on U.S. subsidy ¶ levels, Mexico could request voluntary export restraints on the most sensitive U.S. ¶ exports: white corn, beans, nonfat dry milk, among others. There are precedents for such ¶ restraints, and the request is consistent with the emerging concept of “special products” in ¶ the WTO’s Doha Round negotiations. (Without such export restraints from the United ¶ States, however, any Mexican claim of special products under a new WTO agreement ¶ would be meaningless, since NAFTA takes precedence over the WTO.) For the United ¶ States, white corn and bean exports are small, so a request for export restraints would ¶ represent a small concession economically, though perhaps a large concession as a ¶ precedent. Nonfat dry milk exports are more significant and would be more costly for the ¶ United States to concede.
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Wise ‘9 – Director of the Research and Policy Program at the Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University (Timothy A., “Agricultural Dumping Under NAFTA: Estimating the Costs of U.S. Agricultural Policies to Mexican Producers,” GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE WORKING PAPER NO. 09-08, 12/09, http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/wp/09-08AgricDumping.pdf)//ER
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the TRQ allowed Mexico the policy space to compensate for U.S. corn ¶ dumping with tariffs. Mexico could request voluntary export restraints on the most sensitive U.S. ¶ exports: white corn, beans, nonfat dry milk, among others the request is consistent with the emerging concept of “special products” in ¶ the WTO’s Doha Round negotiations a request for export restraints would ¶ represent a small concession economically
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Mexico could request export restraints to counter US dumping
| 1,159 | 60 | 422 | 193 | 9 | 67 | 0.046632 | 0.34715 |
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Facelift for NAFTA¶ Negotiating in the TPP with Canada and Mexico also allows the United States ¶ to address nettlesome trade issues that still exist under NAFTA. These include:¶ • Canadian “supply management” rules that severely limit the ability of ¶ U.S. farmers to export dairy, chicken, eggs, and turkey to Canada; ¶ • Barriers caused by Canada’s intellectual property (IP) laws and IP enforcement, as well as its local content quotas for Canadian TV and radio; and32 • Mexico’s failures to protect and enforce certain U.S. IP, its limits on ¶ telecom access and foreign investment, and its anticompetitive business ¶ practices.33¶ The TPP talks also offer the opportunity to upgrade NAFTA’s side agreements ¶ on labor and the environment by adopting strong and enforceable labor and environment rules, such as those included in the U.S.-Peru Free Trade Agreement.34¶ Raising these and other issues in the context of the TPP talks could provide ¶ new avenues–and potential new allies and possible new trade-offs–to help the ¶ United States to tackle difficult trade issues with Canada and Mexico. Progress ¶ on these fronts could further boost U.S. exports to our neighbors and advance ¶ global adoption of high-standard trade rules.
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Gerwin ’13 – Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Economic Policy for the Third Way Economic Program (Ed, “Rooting for Canada and Mexico in the TPP,” Third Way Economic Program, 3/13, Google Scholar)//ER
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Negotiating in the TPP with Canada and Mexico also allows the United States ¶ to address nettlesome trade issues that still exist under NAFTA. These include:¶ Canadian “supply management” rules that severely limit the ability of ¶ U.S. farmers to export Barriers caused by Canada’s intellectual property laws Mexico’s failures to protect and enforce certain U.S. IP, its limits on ¶ telecom access and foreign investment, and its anticompetitive business ¶ practices. The TPP talks also offer the opportunity to upgrade NAFTA’s side agreements ¶ on labor and the environment by adopting strong and enforceable labor and environment rules Raising these and other issues in the context of the TPP talks could provide ¶ new avenues–and potential new allies and possible new trade-offs–to help the ¶ United States to tackle difficult trade issues with Canada and Mexico. Progress ¶ on these fronts could further boost U.S. exports to our neighbors and advance ¶ global adoption of high-standard trade rules.
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Canada and Mexico’s inclusion in TPP solves the aff’s advantages and the environment
| 1,238 | 84 | 1,003 | 200 | 13 | 159 | 0.065 | 0.795 |
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At this point, of course, there is little indication that the Mexican government is ¶ prepared to request any such consideration from the United States, nor that the U.S. ¶ government would be willing to cooperate with such a request. This leaves Mexican ¶ producers largely undefended if and when U.S. agricultural dumping resumes. In any ¶ case, their experience stands as a stark cautionary tale for developing countries considering trade agreements with rich countries that export agricultural products at ¶ prices below their costs of production. Agricultural export dumping costs producers ¶ dearly in the importing country.
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Wise ‘9 – Director of the Research and Policy Program at the Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University (Timothy A., “Agricultural Dumping Under NAFTA: Estimating the Costs of U.S. Agricultural Policies to Mexican Producers,” GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE WORKING PAPER NO. 09-08, 12/09, http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/wp/09-08AgricDumping.pdf)//ER
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there is little indication that the Mexican government is ¶ prepared to request any such consideration from the United States, nor that the U.S. ¶ government would be willing to cooperate with such a request. , their experience stands as a stark cautionary tale for developing countries considering trade agreements with rich countries that export agricultural products at ¶ prices below their costs of production
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US would say no and Mexico wouldn’t request export restraints
| 630 | 61 | 413 | 98 | 10 | 65 | 0.102041 | 0.663265 |
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More than a decade after the North American Free Trade Agreement entered into force, public opinion across North America shows moderate to strong support for NAFTA, even though the Mexican, U.S. and Canadian publics each feel that their trading partners have done better than their own countries under the agreement and that some of their fellow citizens are harmed by freer trade. The political challenges of trade agreements are evident in these mixed feelings.¶ NAFTA entered into force in 1994, creating one of the world�s largest free trade blocs. An even more ambitious regional trade pact�the Free Trade Area of the Americas�has been on the hemispheric agenda since 1994 and was intended to be in place by 2005, but President Bush returned from the Summit of the Americas in Argentina in November 2005 with little movement toward an agreement. Opinion polling on NAFTA reveals the complex public reactions to liberalizing trade: majority support for freer trade but reservations about fairness between countries and about trade�s impact on groups within their society.¶ Public opinion in Mexico, Canada and the United States tends to be positive toward NAFTA and the prospect of widening free trade across the hemisphere. A survey conducted in July 2004 by CIDE and COMEXI in Mexico found that 64 percent of the Mexican public favored NAFTA, and 62 percent also supported a possible Free Trade Agreement of the Americas stretching from Canada to Chile.¶ Canadian opinion, reported in a June 2003 Ipsos Reid survey, found that a clear majority (70%) of Canadians supported NAFTA, while only 26 percent were opposed.¶ The Program on International Policy Attitudes reported in a January 2004 poll that a plurality of 47 percent of Americans felt that NAFTA has been good for the United States, while 39 percent felt that it had been bad. A Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR) poll carried out in July 2004 found that 59 percent of Americans favored the United States entering a prospective FTAA.¶ The notion of rolling back freer trade is rejected by majorities across North America. A poll on NAFTA conducted among the public in all three countries by Ipsos Reid in 2002 explored preferences for �making trade closer� between the three countries, keeping �trade between the countries and their economies the way they are today� or �reduce trade.� The public in all three countries favored increasing trade or keeping it the same (75% in Canada, 73% in the United States and 58 percent in Mexico wanted to increase trade or keep it the same). Mexico showed the most division on this issue, with 33 percent supporting reducing trade, while only 19 percent in Canada and 19 percent in the United States desired reducing trade.¶ Thus a variety of polls conducted after 7-10 years of experience with NAFTA indicate that public opinion in all three countries generally supports the pact and increasing trade in general.
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Weber 6 (Stephen J. Weber, 1/23/06, “In Mexico, U.S. and Canada, Public Support for NAFTA Surprisingly Strong, Given each Country Sees Grass as Greener on the Other Side”, http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brlatinamericara/161.php?lb=brla)
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More than a decade after the North American Free Trade Agreement entered into force, public opinion across North America shows moderate to strong support for NAFTA Opinion polling on NAFTA reveals the complex public reactions to liberalizing trade: majority support for freer trade but reservations about fairness between countries and about trade�s impact on groups within their society.¶ A survey conducted in July 2004 by CIDE and COMEXI in Mexico found that 64 percent of the Mexican public favored NAFTA, and 62 percent also supported a possible Free Trade Agreement of the Americas stretching from Canada to Chile. Canadian opinion, found that a clear majority (70%) of Canadians supported NAFTA, while only 26 percent were opposed.¶ 47 percent of Americans felt that NAFTA has been good for the United States, while 39 percent felt that it had been bad. A poll on NAFTA conducted among the public in all three countries explored preferences for �making trade closer� between the three countries, keeping �trade between the countries and their economies the way they are today� or �reduce trade. 75% in Canada, 73% in the United States and 58 percent in Mexico wanted to increase trade or keep it the same). Mexico showed the most division on this issue, with 33 percent supporting reducing trade, while only 19 percent in Canada and 19 percent in the United States desired reducing trade.¶
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NAFTA popular with public
| 2,946 | 25 | 1,408 | 481 | 4 | 229 | 0.008316 | 0.476091 |
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Progress with Mexico on the energy front will be more difficult. Funda-¶ mentally, there are two obstacles. The first of these is popular Mexican re-¶ sistance to amend the constitutional prohibition against foreign participa-¶ tion. Unfortunately; the Mexican Congress seems reluctant to proceed¶ on even modest reforms, even though they could boost investment in¶ electricity-generating plants. It is even less willing to welcome foreign en-¶ ergy companies in developing deep Mexican oil reserves (in the Gulf of¶ Mexico) or gas reserves (in the northern states). The second is the politi-¶ cal clout of Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and the Comision Federal de¶ Electricidad (CPE) workers worried about losing their jobs. Even if the pe-¶ troleum sector booms, it won't relieve the featherbedding that accounts¶ for huge excess employment and drives up costs. We think that Mexico¶ could design transitional arrangements to guarantee the job security of¶ many current energy-sector workers, either in their present place of employment or in new foreign ventures, then buy out others through wage¶ insurance programs (funded by oil industry contributions), similar to¶ those recently incorporated in the US Trade Act of 2002.
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Hufbauer and Schott ’05 – Hufbauer is Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since 1992, Marcus Wallenberg Professor of International Finance Diplomacy at Georgetown University, deputy assistant secretary for international trade and investment policy of the US Treasury; Schott is a senior fellow since 1983, was senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and international economist at the US treasury (Gary Clyde and Jeffrey J, “NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges,” Chapter 9: Recommendations for North American Economic Integration, Institute for International Economics, October 2005)//ER
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Progress with Mexico on the energy front will be difficult there are two obstacles The first of these is popular Mexican re-¶ sistance to amend the constitutional prohibition against foreign participa-¶ tion. the Mexican Congress seems reluctant to proceed¶ on even modest reforms, It is even less willing to welcome foreign en-¶ ergy companies in developing deep Mexican oil reserves The second is the politi-¶ cal clout of Petroleos Mexicanos Even if the pe-¶ troleum sector booms, it won't relieve the featherbedding that accounts¶ for huge excess employment and drives up costs. Mexico¶ could design transitional arrangements to guarantee the job security of¶ many current energy-sector workers, either in their present place of employment or in new foreign ventures, then buy out others through wage¶ insurance programs ), similar to¶ those recently incorporated in the US Trade Act of 2002.
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Engagement is unpopular in Mexico – especially in the oil sector
| 1,226 | 65 | 896 | 186 | 11 | 140 | 0.05914 | 0.752688 |
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Since our Dec. 1 cross-border action, community and NGO organizations from central and Latin America are raising their collective voices in opposition to the TPP. This opposition was solidified at the People’s Summit in Santiago de Chile — parallel to summit EU-CELAC Summit — this past January where civil society gathered to express and share their concerns and develop strategies to stop it. They are calling out the TPP as a ‘tool of disintegration’ in the region because it attempts to destabilize regional processes of integration that challenge the neoliberal model inherent in the TPP. These alternatives include the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and The Community of Caribbean and Latin American States (CELAC), as well as economic blocs like MERCOSUR and ALBA trading regions. The TPP is seen in Latin America as a second attempt by the United States to push a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) in the region with help from countries whose governments are subservient to the U.S. led neoliberal ideology and “free trade” economics. Stopping our governments from doing any more damage with corporate rights pacts like the TPP needs to be a priority of the peoples of North America. We must demand an alternative, more equitable and sustainable global trade regime. Trade and investment deals must respect and promote fundamental environmental rights, indigenous sovereignty, labor rights, including equal rights for migrant workers and people of color. Communities and local governments need to be able to actively create high-wage, high-benefit jobs in ways that do not undermine the well-being of our sisters and brothers globally. Governments must be able to promote democratic public policies in the public interest without fear of catastrophic lawsuits in non-democratic and non-transparent investment tribunals. Free trade creates rich people not rich communities. We have 20 years of evidence from NAFTA… we don’t want any more. Stop the TPP! Sign the tri-national statement of unity against the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and to sign-up to be more involved, go to www.tppxborder.org.
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Groves et. al 2013 – Publications Director for the Washington Sate Labor Council; bachelor’s degree in journalism from University of Maryland(David, Raul Burbano, Kristin Beifus, and Manuel Perez-Rocha: “LIKE NAFTA, TPP WOULD HELP CORPORATIONS, BUT NOT PEOPLE” Mar 12 2013 http://www.thestand.org/2013/03/like-nafta-tpp-would-help-corporations-but-not-people/ //SRM)
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community organizations from Latin America are raising their collective voices in opposition to the TPP at the People’s Summit in Santiago de Chile this past January civil society gathered to express and share their concerns calling the TPP a ‘tool of disintegration’ Stopping governments from doing any more damage with corporate rights pacts needs to be a priority of the peoples of North America Trade and investment deals must respect and promote fundamental rights Governments must be able to promote democratic public policies in the public interest without fear of catastrophic lawsuits in non-democratic and non-transparent investment tribunals. We have 20 years of evidence from NAFTA
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The public currently opposes arbitration procedures that favor corporate interests over state authority
| 2,116 | 104 | 693 | 331 | 13 | 106 | 0.039275 | 0.320242 |
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Improving security will depend above all, however, on other dimensions of the complex U.S.-Mexican relationship—including trade, economic development, and immigration. To really overcome Mexico's security challenges, the United States must move beyond a short-term threat-based mentality to one that considers all these elements in the strategic relationship with its southern neighbor. ¶ The foremost challenge in Mexico today, at least according to most Mexicans, is in fact the growing economic crisis. Even during Mexico's protectionist days, its fortunes rose and fell along with those of its northern neighbor. Today, the economies and general well-being of Mexico and the United States are even more linked. Some 80 percent of Mexico's exports—well over $200 billion worth—go to the United States. Mexico's tourism industry—which brings in $11 billion annually—depends on 15 million American vacationers each year. The large Mexican and Mexican American populations living in the United States—estimated at 12 million and 28 million, respectively—transfer nearly $25 billion a year to family and friends in Mexico. ¶ This relationship runs the other way as well. After Canada, Mexico is the second most important destination for U.S. exports, receiving one-ninth of U.S. goods sent abroad. It is either the primary or the secondary destination for exports from 22 of the 50 U.S. states. Hundreds of thousands—if not millions—of American jobs depend on consumers and industries in Mexico. And increasingly, U.S. citizens depend on Mexico for even more, as over one million individual Americans—from young professionals to adventurous snowbirds—now live there. ¶ The U.S. recession is hitting Mexico’s economy exceptionally hard. In January, Mexico's gdp shrank by nearly ten percent year on year as manufacturing tumbled. In March, the peso skidded to a 16-year low against the dollar. The government now predicts a three-and-a-half percent decline in gdp for and many private economists are bracing for an even greater fall. Policymakers are beginning to worry about rising unemployment, poverty, and even social unrest. Some ten million Mexicans still live on just $2 a day, and economists predict that the downturn will push more Mexicans into poverty. ¶ Nowhere else are the asymmetries between two such interlinked neighbors so severe. In its own self-interest, the United States should work with Mexico on a new economic development strategy. The United States can start by lessening the barriers to trade with Mexico. This will require resolving the current trucking dispute (fulfilling U.S. obligations under the North American Free Trade Agreement [nafta] by allowing Mexican trucks to operate on both sides of the border) and avoiding protectionist measures, such as the recent "Buy American" provision in the stimulus package. It will also require investing in the border itself. Nearly one million people and $1 billion in trade cross the border every day, overwhelming the existing infrastructure and border personnel and leading to long and unpredictable border delays, which limit Mexico s competitiveness. The U.S. Department of Transportation currently estimates that $11 billion more will need to be spent on the U.S. side of the border to catch up with the growing traffic.
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O’Neil 2009—Shannon K. O'Neil is a senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan foreign-policy think tank and membership organization.
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Improving security will depend on other dimensions of the complex U.S.-Mexican relationship the United States must move beyond a short-term threat-based mentality The foremost challenge in Mexico today, at least according to most Mexicans, is in fact the growing economic crisis. Policymakers are beginning to worry about rising unemployment, poverty, and even social unrest. Some ten million Mexicans still live on just $2 a day, and economists predict that the downturn will push more Mexicans into poverty. The United States can start by lessening the barriers to trade with Mexico. This will require resolving the current trucking dispute by allowing Mexican trucks to operate on both sides of the border and avoiding protectionist measures, such as the recent "Buy American" provision in the stimulus package.
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Alt causes to relations
| 3,298 | 24 | 814 | 503 | 4 | 125 | 0.007952 | 0.248509 |
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Paul Cellucci, ambassador to Canada under President George W. Bush, has a novel solution to much of the immigration problem — allow citizens of the United States, Canada, and Mexico to work freely in any of the three countries. That would be the final logical step of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the three countries, he says. “In one market-based move, which President Obama could negotiate with America's NAFTA partners and submit to the Senate for ratification, the U.S. could solve a huge part of its immigration problem while breathing new life into North American trade,” Cellucci wrote Monday in an op-ed piece for The Wall Street Journal with Stephen Kelly, associate director of Canadian studies at Duke University. Of the 11 million illegal immigrants now living here, about 58 percent are Mexican, according to the Pew Hispanic Center. “With permission to work here legally, they could have their status regularized overnight,” wrote Kelly and Cellucci, who also served as governor of Massachusetts. “They would become legal not because the U.S. grants them citizenship but because they are citizens of Mexico, a NAFTA member.” If the workers wanted to become citizens, they would have to wait in line just like anyone else, the two men said. “But with this group of more than six million undocumented immigrants taken care of, finding solutions for the remaining illegal population would be far less daunting,” they added.
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Weil 13—Staff Writer at News Max (Dan, “Immigration Solution: Allow Free Movement of NAFTA Workers”, March 11, 2013, http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/nafta-immigration-debate/2013/03/11/id/494113)//RT
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allow citizens of the United States, Canada, and Mexico to work freely in any of the three countries. That would be the final logical step of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the three countries the U.S. could solve a huge part of its immigration problem while breathing new life into North American trade With permission to work here legally, they could have their status regularized overnight They would become legal not because the U.S. grants them citizenship but because they are citizens of Mexico But with this group of more than six million undocumented immigrants taken care of, finding solutions for the remaining illegal population would be far less daunting,” they added
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Expanding NAFTA is a prerequisite to solving Illegal Immigration
| 1,466 | 65 | 710 | 238 | 9 | 116 | 0.037815 | 0.487395 |
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Mexico is keenly interested in the treatment accorded to migrant workers,¶ both those already resident in the United States and those who seek entry,¶ legally or otherwise. According to Philip Martin, in chapter 8 of this vol-¶ ume, the number of Mexican workers employed in the United States is¶ about 5.5 million. Annually in the late 1990s, approximately 150,000 Mex-¶ icans entered the United States legally mainly under family reunification¶ visas, and 400,000 entered illegally, most in search of work.¶ As a cooperative prologue to the thorny problem of migrant workers,¶ we believe that Ottawa, Washington, and Mexico City can forge common¶ visa standards for most non-NAFTA visitors and immigrants. This goal is¶ highly significant from a security standpoint. For people arriving from¶ outside the NAFTA region, the North American countries need a shared¶ system for excluding non-NAFTA nationals who pose a security threat."¶ Legal immigrants are already thoroughly scrutinized before they enter;¶ the real problem is visitors. Annually Canada admits about 4.4 million¶ non-US visitors, Mexico admits about 3.3 million, and the United States¶ admits about 29 million non-NAFTA visitors (Rekai 2002). These numbers¶ are up to 30 times larger than the annual intake of legal immigrants.¶ Non-NAFTA visitors who threaten security can be better excluded if a¶ few core measures are adopted. The NAFTA partners should agree on¶ documentation requirements, length-of-stay requirements, visa waiver¶ country lists, and watch lists for potentially troublesome visitors." Offi-¶ cials in each country should have electronic access to the immigration¶ records of its partners. These suggestions seem obvious. However, US se-¶ curity agencies, such as the FBI, CIA, ATE and Customs, have yet to agree¶ on a common watch list for potentially troublesome visitors to the United¶ States, so it will take political energy to forge a common North American¶ approach.¶ As well, NAFTA partners should create a special force to handle all¶ third-country immigration controls at the individual's first port of entry¶ into NAFTA space. Common document and biometric identification stan-¶ dards should be applied.¶ Likewise, the partners should create a more efficient system for han-¶ dling legitimate travelers among the three NAFTA countries. The Smart¶ Border accord negotiated between Canada and the United States contains¶ useful elements: high-tech identity cards for permanent residents, using¶ biometric identifiers, and preclearance programs for frequent travelers,¶ known as INSPASS at airports and CANPASS at land borders and bridges¶ (dedicated commuter lanes). The same system should be extended to¶ cover visitors arriving from Mexico.
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Hufbauer and Schott ’05 – Hufbauer is Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since 1992, Marcus Wallenberg Professor of International Finance Diplomacy at Georgetown University, deputy assistant secretary for international trade and investment policy of the US Treasury; Schott is a senior fellow since 1983, was senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and international economist at the US treasury (Gary Clyde and Jeffrey J, “NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges,” Chapter 9: Recommendations for North American Economic Integration, Institute for International Economics, October 2005)//ER
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Mexico is keenly interested in the treatment accorded to migrant workers,¶ both those already resident in the United States and those who seek entry,¶ legally or otherwise. Ottawa, Washington, and Mexico City can forge common¶ visa standards for most non-NAFTA visitors and immigrants. This goal is¶ highly significant from a security standpoint. the North American countries need a shared¶ system for excluding non-NAFTA nationals who pose a security threat."¶ Legal immigrants are already thoroughly scrutinized before they enter;¶ the real problem is visitors. Annually Canada admits about 4.4 million¶ non-US visitors, Mexico admits about 3.3 million, and the United States¶ admits about 29 million non-NAFTA visitors (Rekai 2002). These numbers¶ are up to 30 times larger than the annual intake of legal immigrants.¶ Non-NAFTA visitors who threaten security can be better excluded if a¶ few core measures are adopted. NAFTA partners should agree on¶ documentation requirements, length-of-stay requirements, visa waiver¶ country lists, and watch lists for potentially troublesome visitors." US se-¶ curity agencies, have yet to agree¶ on a common watch list for potentially troublesome visitors to the United¶ States, so it will take political energy to forge a common North American¶ approach.¶ NAFTA partners should create a special force to handle all¶ third-country immigration controls Common document and biometric identification stan-¶ dards should be applied.¶ the partners should create a more efficient system for han-¶ dling legitimate travelers among the three NAFTA countries. Smart¶ Border contains¶ useful elements: high-tech identity cards for permanent residents, using¶ biometric identifiers, and preclearance programs for frequent travelers, The same system should be extended to¶ cover visitors arriving from Mexico.
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Expanding NAFTA solves Illegal Immigration
| 2,740 | 43 | 1,841 | 408 | 5 | 266 | 0.012255 | 0.651961 |
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Impact of NAFTA in combination with US agricultural subsidies¶ Click here for "U.S. Dumping on Mexican Producers" table¶ The impact of NAFTA and other international agreements in combination with U.S. agricultural subsidies expel millions of Mexicans and other rural workers from their countries of origin into the United States territory every year.¶ According to Wise, who carried out a comparison of farm product prices in the U.S.-Mexico trade between 1997 and 2005, Mexico was flooded with agricultural imports exported at prices below production costs.¶ In his research, the eight products studied included corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, beef, pork and poultry. All products showed significant increase in exports—from the lowest 159 percent in soybean to the largest in pork exports at 707 percent.¶ For all products, Mexican producers’ prices fell from 44 to 67 percent from early 1990’s levels, declining local production and increasing import dependency. Mexican crop production also fell except for corn and meats, which at lower prices, was rapidly adopted for consumption in the Mexican families’ diet.¶ “An estimated 2.3 million people have left agriculture in a country desperate for livelihoods,” said Wise. The study estimated that the cost to Mexican producers was around $12.8 billion in the nine-year period, more than 10 percent of the U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade value annually.¶ The other cost, the one that we, north of the border pay, is the constant migration of these displaced rural workers into the United States.
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Baumann ’13 (Susana G, “Agricultural Subsidies From NAFTA, Other International Agreements,” Huffington Post Latino Voices, 1/11/13, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/11/mexican-farmers-agricultural-subsidies_n_2457845.html)//ER
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The impact of NAFTA and other international agreements in combination with U.S. agricultural subsidies expel millions of Mexicans and other rural workers from their countries of origin into the United States territory every year.¶ Mexico was flooded with agricultural imports exported at prices below production costs.¶ the eight products studied included corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, beef, pork and poultry. All products showed significant increase in exports Mexican producers’ prices fell from 44 to 67 percent from early 1990’s levels, declining local production and increasing import dependency. Mexican crop production also fell except for corn and meats, which at lower prices, was rapidly adopted for consumption in the Mexican families’ diet.¶ 2.3 million people have left agriculture in a country desperate for livelihoods the cost to Mexican producers was around $12.8 billion in the nine-year period, more than 10 percent of the U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade value annually.¶ The other cost, the one that we, north of the border pay, is the constant migration of these displaced rural workers into the United States.
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Reforming NAFTA is a prerequisite to solving Illegal Immigration
| 1,552 | 65 | 1,138 | 239 | 9 | 172 | 0.037657 | 0.719665 |
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Since the last immigration upsurge in 2006, the Obama administration, the Democrats and the Republicans have done everything in their power to ignore the voices of undocumented immigrants, to water down the DREAM Act, to increase the repressive forces at the border, and deport over 1 million immigrants and separate families. Now, after the 2012 election demonstrated the enormous significance of the Latino vote, the political establishment has turned around and promised immigration reform, albeit one tailored to private capitalist interests.¶ We frequently hear how immigrants are merely “seeking a better life for their children” and trying to fulfill the “American Dream,” but there is no discussion of why the world is such that people cannot sustain their families in their home countries and must migrate to the United States.¶ Much of the rhetoric around this reform—on both sides of the Congressional debate—accept the terms that undocumented immigrants are criminals. Neither side questions the culpability of U.S. economic and military policies in driving global migration.¶ A common symbol used in the immigrant rights movement is that of a monarch butterfly. It symbolizes the natural tendency to migrate in certain organisms; they travel long distances in order to adapt to changing environments. However, unlike natural migration patterns developed over thousands of years, modern immigration in the era of advanced capitalism (imperialism) is closer to a forced migration.¶ Migration is as old as humanity itself, with large-scale migrations typically produced by natural disasters and the physical unsustainability of the existing community. Today, migration is caused less by natural inadequacies and more by countries’ integration into a global economy organized around the profit motive, and the deliberate underdevelopment of certain countries to the benefit of others.¶ For Latinos living in the United States, their violent displacement is the faded reflection of the violent political and economic intervention waged upon their home country.¶ Central America: Dictatorships, civil war¶ While the Cold War era and Reagan’s vicious intervention in Latin America are presented as a distant memory in the narrative of U.S. foreign policy, its effects are still being felt.¶ In 2011, nearly 3.1 million Central American immigrants resided in the United States, representing close to 8 percent (3.1 million) of the country's 40.4 million immigrants. This displacement is due almost exclusively to the effects of the civil wars in El Salvador and Nicaragua in the 1980s. El Salvador estimated that more than 25 percent of its population migrated or fled during the country's civil war, which began in 1979 and ended in 1992.¶ During the early to mid-1970s, there was a rise of revolutionary forces fighting against U.S.-backed dictatorships in El Salvador and Nicaragua. In 1979 the Frente Sandinista para la Liberación Nacional (FSLN) toppled the Somoza regime and renewed the hopes for revolution in the region. Inspired, the Frente Faribundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN) united several political tendencies of the left and sought to bring about the same change in El Salvador.¶ With the election of Reagan, whose ardent anti-communism, aggressive expansionism and “free market” fundamentalism gave a new wind to the U.S. ruling class, Central America became the battlefront against the tide of revolution. Reagan began funding El Salvador's right-wing ruling party ARENA (Alianza Republicana Nacionalista) to the tune of $1 million per day, a rate which would last for almost 10 years—in a country the size of Massachusetts. Along with funding, the U.S. trained army death squads which terrorized both countries. Along with the mass killings of its people, Nicaragua suffered through a brutal economic blockade meant to strangle the newly formed Sandinista government. The civil war and forced poverty pushed thousands to flee their homeland.¶ Mass immigration from Central America, in other words, was not some inevitable economic development. It came from the defeat of socialism as an alternative path of development to overcome the legacies of colonialism and landlordism and reclaim the country's vast natural wealth. This is the dream of national liberation that inspired and channeled the energy of millions; when this collective dream was defeated by the CIA, the people were forced to turn towards individual and family-based solutions in migration.¶ Mexico: Neoliberalism and its side effects¶ Literally in the backyard of the most powerful economic and military power in history, Mexico's experience with U.S. imperialism includes the direct military invasion and outright robbery of half of its national territory in the mid-1800s. It also includes the North American Free Trade Agreement, through which the Mexican bourgeoisie sought to overcome its own stagnation by offering its national market and cheap labor force to U.S. multinational corporations.¶ NAFTA produced huge displacement for the working class, peasants and oppressed in Mexico. The trade agreement went into effect January 1994 and made it illegal for Mexico to give preference to national products over U.S. ones and allowed the U.S. to sue the government of "unfair" market practices. It put small Mexican farmers in competition with U.S. agribusiness. It devastated small businesses.¶ The poverty that NAFTA imposed on Mexico, at a time when the country was going through a population boom, led to the mass exodus of Mexican labor to the United States.¶ Prior to 1994, it was estimated that around 2 million Mexican immigrants had crossed "illegaly" into the U.S. Almost 20 years later, that number is estimated to be anywhere between 10 to 12 million Mexican immigrants.¶ The verdict on NAFTA is clear, although the ruling classes of both countries continue to celebrate it. In 2009, it was reported that Mexico became the Latin American country with the highest growth of poverty and inequality in the distribution of wealth.¶ An extensive report by CONEVAL, a government institution in Mexico that studies the political and social development of the population, stated that between 2006 and 2008 extreme poverty characterized by lack of access to basic nutrition increased from 14.4 million to 19.5 million people.¶ In 2008, 44.2 percent of the Mexican population was poor. This amounted to over 47.2 million people who did not have access to nutritional and non-nutritional goods that are considered basic. Another 33 percent of the population meet the minimum requirement for basic standard of living but were considered at risk for poverty due to their lack of access to healthcare, education, housing and/or social services.¶ The conditions nurtured by NAFTA, combined with political turmoil within the Mexican bourgeoisie, have given rise to the violent narco-trafficking often seen on the news. This industry, supplying an enormous market north of the border, has further displaced millions.¶ In a shocking new report, a consultant from the Association of Local Mexican Authorities of Civil Associations (Aalmac) announced that 150,000 deaths can be attributed to the seven years of the so-called "drug war." Along with this horrific figure, Juárez Franco stated that 27,523 people are missing, 800,000 women or children have been victims of sexual assault, 50,000 were left without parents and 4.5 million women are without their husbands.¶ Adding insult to injury, U.S. arms manufacturers and dealers have made fortunes on the drug war across the border, as have major U.S. banks laundering billions of dollars in drug money for the cartels.¶ Products of a criminal process¶ While the debate over the pathway to citizenship carries on among ruling class circles in the coming period, it is the role of revolutionaries to explain the real roots of immigration and to expose the capitalists as the real criminals.¶ Immigrants are the products of an economic system, global capitalism, that has reduced opportunities in their home countries, while opening up considerable paths to migration through Western economic, military and cultural penetration of their homelands. While the bulk of this process is celebrated as globalization—the free flow of capital and goods across borders—the human beings that react to these trends are described as law-breakers.¶ The PSL fights for a movement where the current victims of imperialism are empowered to fight back, and for a world where workers can freely cross borders, but in which no one must for the sake of survival. That means socialism, which in the United States would entail a vast effort to repair and repay those nations oppressed by imperialism, and would liberate the hoarded social wealth to provide a guaranteed living to all.
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Liberation 13—Newspaper (“Imperialism, immigration and Latin America”, April 27, 2013, http://www.pslweb.org/liberationnews/newspaper/vol-7-no-6/imperialism-immigration-and-latin-america.html)//RT
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Since the last immigration upsurge in 2006 the Obama administration, the Democrats and the Republicans have done everything in their power to ignore the voices of undocumented immigrants, to water down the DREAM Act, to increase the repressive forces at the border, and deport over 1 million immigrants and separate families. We hear how immigrants are merely “seeking a better life for their children” and trying to fulfill the “American Dream,” but there is no discussion of why the world is such that people cannot sustain their families in their home countries and must migrate to the United States common symbol used in the immigrant rights movement is that of a monarch butterfly It symbolizes the natural tendency to migrate in certain organisms modern immigration in the era of advanced capitalism (imperialism) is closer to a forced migration For Latinos living in the United States, their violent displacement is the faded reflection of the violent political and economic intervention waged upon their home country. . Reagan began funding El Salvador's right-wing ruling party ARENA (Alianza Republicana Nacionalista) to the tune of $1 million per day, a rate which would last for almost 10 years—in a country the size of Massachusetts. he U.S. trained army death squads which terrorized both countries. Along with the mass killings of its people, Nicaragua suffered through a brutal economic blockade meant to strangle the newly formed Sandinista government The civil war and forced poverty pushed thousands to flee their homeland. Mass immigration from Central America This is the dream of national liberation that inspired and channeled the energy of millions when this collective dream was defeated by the CIA, the people were forced to turn towards individual and family-based solutions in migration. Literally in the backyard of the most powerful economic and military power in history, Mexico's experience with U.S. imperialism includes the direct military invasion and outright robbery of half of its national territory in the mid-1800s. It includes the North American Free Trade Agreement The trade agreement went into effect January 1994 and made it illegal for Mexico to give preference to national products over U.S. ones and allowed the U.S. to sue the government of "unfair" market practices. It put small Mexican farmers in competition with U.S. agribusiness It devastated small businesses. The poverty that NAFTA imposed on Mexico, at a time when the country was going through a population boom, led to the mass exodus of Mexican labor to the United States Almost 20 years later, that number is estimated to be anywhere between 10 to 12 million Mexican immigrants verdict on NAFTA is clear An extensive report by CONEVAL, a government institution in Mexico that studies the political and social development of the population, stated that between 2006 and 2008 extreme poverty characterized by lack of access to basic nutrition increased from 14.4 million to 19.5 million people. The conditions nurtured by NAFTA, combined with political turmoil within the Mexican bourgeoisie, have given rise to the violent narco-trafficking often seen on the news. industry, supplying an enormous market north of the border, has further displaced millions 150,000 deaths can be attributed to the seven years of the so-called "drug war Along with this horrific figure, Juárez Franco stated that 27,523 people are missing, 800,000 women or children have been victims of sexual assault, 50,000 were left without parents and 4.5 million women are without their husbands U.S. arms manufacturers and dealers have made fortunes on the drug war across the border Products of a criminal process While the debate over the pathway to citizenship carries on among ruling class circles in the coming period, it is the role of revolutionaries to explain the real roots of immigration and to expose the capitalists as the real criminals
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US involvement in Mexico furthers the empire and causes mass violence
| 8,812 | 69 | 3,932 | 1,368 | 11 | 626 | 0.008041 | 0.457602 |
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Third, we have demonstrated that the NAFTA process was not in any fundamental sense a trade-based policy, leading to a benign and mutually beneficial exchange of economic specializations through economic competition on both sides of the border, as portrayed in textbook models. Rather than trade, let alone "free" or competition-based trade, the neoliberal program was constructed to serve the end of oligopoly power—the control of markets—by displacing significant portions of the U.S. production system to Mexico. In short, NAFTA was not a trade accord; it was an investment/production and restructuring agreement enabling U.S. firms to shift production to Mexico and benefit from cheap migrant—mainly undocumented—labor. U.S. firms were allowed to expand their production without domestic content legislation, or export quotas or restrictions on the repatriation of profits, technology sharing agreements, or any other constraints on the use of capital. For the United States, the potential dynamic impacts of the labor export-led model are the following: lowering production costs in Mexico and/or the United States through the insertion of cheap labor into the production process which, on a transnational basis, will increase profits. ¶ Those gains can then ¶ 1. fund greater research and development spending, which, conceivably, leads to greater innovation levels—with these innovations potentially spreading across much of the U.S. industrial system; and ¶ 2. fund investment in the modernization of machinery and/or equipment and/or labor/managerial organizational restructuring programs and/or labor training programs. ¶ Additionally, if the lowering of production costs in Mexico and/or the United States is partially passed on to U.S. consumers via lower prices, then the labor export-led model serves to cheapen the reproduction costs of U.S. labor, enabling U.S. corporations and businesses to operate with lower wages than otherwise would be necessary. This too enhances the competitiveness of the U.S. production system, while raising profit margins. ¶ Fourth, economic integration under NAFTA, rather than promoting convergence in the development levels of Mexico and the United States, has deepened the asymmetries that exist between the two countries: whereas in 1994, per capita GDP in the United States was 2.6 times that of Mexico, by 2004 the ratio had increased to 2.9. Similarly, average manufacturing wages in dollars per man-hour in the United States were 5.7 times higher than those reported in Mexico in 1994, and 6.8 higher in 2004 (Delgado Wise and Marquez 2006, 32). ¶ In Mexico, however, this new form of asymmetric integration has clearly not been associated with new possibilities for economic development. Stagnating or dropping wages, rising unemployment and informal activities have constituted the environment that has led to increasing emigration. The lack of linkage effects in the Mexican economy has negated the potential dynamic spillover effects that, according to the new growth theory, would spread across much of the production system due to enhance foreign investment under NAFTA. On one hand, this has meant that Mexico has become increasingly dependent upon remittances to stabilize the macro-economy and society at large—to the point where remittances, net export earnings from oil (even during a boom in prices), and the net export earnings of the maquila sector have all converged, for the first time. On the other hand, the uncontrolled leap in emigration has called into question the sustain ability of the cheap-labor export-led model—particularly in terms of the depopulation effects in many parts of Mexico. With increasing marginalization and poverty, the pressures to emigrate escalate, and this could very well collide with U.S. policy given the desire of the U.S. citizenry to heighten security in the post-9/11 period.
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Wise and Cypher 2007—Dr. Raúl Delgado Wise is president of the International Network on Migration and Development; UNESCO Chair on Migration, Development and Human Rights; and Professor of the Doctoral Programme in Development Studies at the Autonomous University of Zacatecas, Mexico. Dr. James M. Cypher received his Ph.D. degree in economics from the University of California, Riverside in 1973. His B.A. and M.A. degrees were awarded by University of California, Santa Barbara. His early research interests were focused on the macroeconomic impacts of US military spending, and he has published numerous articles in this area. Since the late 1980s he has concentrated on the Mexican Economy and issues of internationalization and economic development of poor nations. His book, State and Capital in Mexico (Westview, 1990) was published in Mexico by Siglo XXI publishers. He has taught or worked at several universities in Latin America, and is currently engaged in a large project to assess the pattern of industrialization in Chile. The senior member of the Department’s faculty, Dr. Cypher has devoted his career to undergraduate teaching for over three decades. With James Dietz he co-authored a text, The Process of Economic Development (Routledge) the second edition of which will appear in 2003. [“The Strategic Role of Mexican Labor under NAFTA: Critical Perspectives on Current Economic Integration.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science , Vol. 610, NAFTA and Beyond: Alternative Perspectives in the Study of Global Trade and Development (Mar., 2007), pp. 120-142]//MM
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NAFTA process was not in any fundamental sense a trade-based policy, leading to a benign and mutually beneficial exchange of economic specializations Rather than trade, let alone "free" or competition-based trade, the neoliberal program was constructed to serve the end of oligopoly power—the control of markets—by displacing significant portions of the U.S. production system to Mexico. U.S. firms were allowed to expand their production without domestic content legislation, or export quotas or restrictions on the repatriation of profits, technology sharing agreements, or any other constraints on the use of capital , economic integration under NAFTA, rather than promoting convergence in the development levels of Mexico and the United States, has deepened the asymmetries that exist between the two countries: whereas in 1994, per capita GDP in the United States was 2.6 times that of Mexico, by 2004 the ratio had increased to 2.9. Similarly, average manufacturing wages in dollars per man-hour in the United States were 5.7 times higher than those reported in Mexico in 1994, and 6.8 higher in 2004 this new form of asymmetric integration has clearly not been associated with new possibilities for economic development. The lack of linkage effects in the Mexican economy has negated the potential dynamic spillover effects that, according to the new growth theory, would spread across much of the production system due to enhance foreign investment under NAFTA , the uncontrolled leap in emigration has called into question the sustain ability of the cheap-labor export-led model—particularly in terms of the depopulation effects in many parts of Mexico.
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NAFTA is not free trade— it is a tool used to further the empire
| 3,883 | 65 | 1,662 | 585 | 14 | 255 | 0.023932 | 0.435897 |
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These losers were all open about their hatred but they managed to couch their hatred and racist feelings by claiming they had little against Mexicans; they only were against illegal aliens. By claiming they didn’t hate Mexicans, even though they did, they managed to cover up their racism behind terms like “sovereignty,” “open borders,” “American jobs,” “What part of illegal don’t you understand?” ad infinitum.¶ Now, in 2007 in the wake of their 2006 electoral disaster, the haters are coming out more publicly than ever in a last ditch effort to destroy Mexico, its people and its relations with the United States.¶ The Center for Immigration studies (CIS) had a public presentation this week In San Diego, the largest American city on the Mexican border. It included panelists Professor George Grayson (College of William and Marry, Virginia), S. Lynne Walker, longtime correspondent from Mexico for the San Diego-based Copley Press and CIS Executive Director, Mark Krikorian. The panel was moderated by former United States Attorney and Undersecretary of the Treasury, Peter Nunez, who serves as CIS Chairman.¶ Note: The CIS was founded by John Tanton, defined by many as the most effective bigot in America and a prime Mexican hater. He also founded a publication, Social Quarterly, in an effort to legitimize racism; he founded NumbersUSA, another anti-immigrant group. He also founded the Federation of Americans for Immigration Reform (FAIR). He used racist Pioneer Fund money to start up FAIR.¶ When he founded CIS, he installed as its head Mark Krikorian who worked for Tanton at FAIR. The CIS is theoretically a non-partisan “think tank.” It is not.¶ It is vehemently anti-immigrant, legal and illegal. If there was any doubt, here are ideas proposed by Mark Krikorian at the presentation.¶ Thousands of Mexicans cross the border every day in San Diego to spend $3-billion a year on goods and services in San Diego annually; consider further that an estimated 50-75,000 Mexicans legally cross the border every day to legally work in San Diego, Orange and Los Angeles counties.¶ First, Krikorian demands that the United States “insulate ourselves” from our largest neighbor, Mexico. In rejecting the idea that the side-by-side economies of America s 7th largest city, San Diego, and Mexico s fourth largest city, Tijuana, were economically interdependent, Krikorian said, “It, frankly, is a parasitic phenomenon” and that, it is “fundamentally in conflict with the interests of the United States.”¶ San Diego Union: “He (Krikorian) also suggested getting rid of border-crossing cards that (legally) allow Mexicans who go through a screening process to enter the United States to go shopping or visit family as well as taking away green cards from people who live in Mexico and cross the border to work every day.”¶ There it is, on the table for all to see. Prohibit legal Mexican border-crossers from crossing to do business, visit doctors, work or go to the world famous San Diego Zoo. Why? Will stopping legal Mexican border-crossers and workers from coming to San Diego, El Paso and Brownsville enhance American security? Will a fairy godmother pour billions of dollars into San Diego to make up what it will lose if such a program of border crossing denials is implemented?¶ What we have here is pure deep-seated racism, the likes of which was exposed in Hernandez v. Texas. Mr. Krikorian reveals what he and the CIS are all about.¶ Stopping legal Mexican visitors and workers from crossing the border boggles the mind. What part of legal don’t these people understand? Legality, you see, means nothing to the CIS, Krikorian and their fellow travelers.¶ Reason: Mexicans are Mexicans and they have a different skin color, speak Spanish and, as Catholics, worship differently than the White Anglo Saxon Protestants who are behind Armenian-origin Krikorian and his English-origin boss, John Tanton.
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Contreras 2013—Raul Lowry Contreras is a Mexican-American California Republican Party Official. [“The Mexicans are coming, the Mexicans are coming!” February 27th, 2013. http://tucsoncitizen.com/arizona-lincoln-republican/2013/02/27/the-mexicans-are-coming-the-mexicans-are-coming/]//MM
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These losers were all open about their hatred but they managed to couch their hatred and racist feelings by claiming they had little against Mexicans; they only were against illegal aliens. By claiming they didn’t hate Mexicans, even though they did, they managed to cover up their racism behind terms like “sovereignty,” “open borders,” “American jobs,” “What part of illegal don’t you understand?” haters are coming out more publicly than ever in a last ditch effort to destroy Mexico, its people and its relations with the United States.¶ The CIS is theoretically a non-partisan “think tank.” It is not.¶ It is vehemently anti-immigrant, legal and illegal. If there was any doubt, here are ideas proposed by Mark Krikorian at the presentation Krikorian demands that the United States “insulate ourselves” from our largest neighbor, Mexico. In rejecting the idea that the side-by-side economies of America s 7th largest city, San Diego, and Mexico s fourth largest city, Tijuana, were economically interdependent, Krikorian said, “It, frankly, is a parasitic phenomenon” and that, it is “fundamentally in conflict with the interests of the United States.” He (Krikorian) also suggested getting rid of border-crossing cards that (legally) allow Mexicans who go through a screening process to enter the United States to go shopping or visit family as well as taking away green cards from people who live in Mexico and cross the border to work every day.” Prohibit legal Mexican border-crossers from crossing to do business, visit doctors, work or go to the world famous San Diego Zoo. Why? Reason: Mexicans are Mexicans and they have a different skin color, speak Spanish and, as Catholics, worship differently than the White Anglo Saxon Protestants who are behind Armenian-origin Krikorian and his English-origin boss, John Tanton.
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The other team’s claims of NAFTA’s repercussions are thinly veiled racism//Cries of insulation from Mexico are rooted in racist ideology
| 3,912 | 136 | 1,832 | 631 | 20 | 290 | 0.031696 | 0.459588 |
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First, US and Mexican environmental groups are rightly distressed that¶ so little has been achieved in improving the day-to-day environment in¶ the border zone and many cities in the interior of Mexico. Fears expressed¶ by NAFTA critics in 1993 that the pact would spur the downward har-¶ monization of environmental and health standards, and create pollution¶ havens in Mexico, were imaginary bogeymen. But environmental prob-¶ lems have been decades in the making. The missing ingredient is money:¶ The North American Development Bank (NADBank) is woefully under-¶ funded, and Mexican municipalities are starved of revenues. We think a¶ revamped matching program is the answer. The NADBank’s capital base¶ should be increased incrementally from $4.5 billion to $10 billion. Instead¶ of a 50-50 split between the United States and Mexico, the funding should¶ be 75-25. For its part, the Mexican federal government should assist mu-¶ nicipalities to levy and collect property taxes and dedicate the revenues to¶ environmentally sound infrastructure improvement-basic needs like¶ water, sanitation, and paved roads." NADBank loans for municipal envi-¶ ronmental projects should be conditioned on meaningful local tax efforts.¶ As US contributions to NADBank would increase by more than $5 billion¶ under our proposal, with substantial new placements directed to Mexican¶ communities, Mexico could reciprocate by adopting tax reforms and in-¶ frastructure investments that improve regional transport networks and¶ enhance border security
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Hufbauer and Schott ’05 – Hufbauer is Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since 1992, Marcus Wallenberg Professor of International Finance Diplomacy at Georgetown University, deputy assistant secretary for international trade and investment policy of the US Treasury; Schott is a senior fellow since 1983, was senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and international economist at the US treasury (Gary Clyde and Jeffrey J, “NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges,” Chapter 9: Recommendations for North American Economic Integration, Institute for International Economics, October 2005)//ER
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US and Mexican environmental groups are rightly distressed that¶ so little has been achieved in improving the day-to-day environment in¶ the border zone and many cities in the interior of Mexico environmental prob-¶ lems have been decades in the making. NADBank) is woefully under-¶ funded, and Mexican municipalities are starved of revenues a¶ revamped matching program is the answer. The NADBank’s capital base¶ should be increased incrementally from $4.5 billion to $10 billion. the funding should¶ be 75-25. the Mexican federal government should assist mu-¶ nicipalities to levy and collect property taxes and dedicate the revenues to¶ environmentally sound infrastructure improvement-basic needs like¶ water, sanitation, and paved roads." NADBank loans for municipal envi-¶ ronmental projects should be conditioned on meaningful local tax efforts.¶ As US contributions to NADBank would increase by more than $5 billion¶ under our proposal, with substantial new placements directed to Mexican¶ communities, Mexico could reciprocate by adopting tax reforms and in-¶ frastructure investments that improve regional transport networks and¶ enhance border security
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NADBank funding is low now – especially for environmental policies
| 1,535 | 66 | 1,163 | 224 | 10 | 166 | 0.044643 | 0.741071 |
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Conclusions ¶ In this article, we have developed a synoptic account of the historical events leading to the passage of NAFTA, a treaty ostensibly intended to reduce barriers to investment, open markets, and fuel economic development on both sides of the border. We have argued, however, that a major objective behind NAFTA was not simply the liberalization of trade but the creation of suitable conditions for the realization of profits by U.S. financial institutions and manufacturers through carefully regulated investment in Mexico. In that sense, NAFTA is more about controlled than free trade. ¶ Our historical account of the events leading to the implementation of NAFTA revealed critical alliances on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. The financial crisis of the 1980s in Latin America, and consequently in the United States, brought about a new coalition that included U.S. banking interests and their representatives in Washington, Mexican public officials, and large business interests in both countries. In essence, the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s acted as an agent for economic reconfiguration and the assumption of new state functions on both sides of the border. ¶ NAFTA's silence with respect to labor rights and worker mobility is comprehensible in the observation that, contrary to the basic precepts of the European Union and its project of political and economic integration, the overarching goal of the treaty was to advance the economic interests of a new binational class of investors, not the fortunes of citizens in general. In that respect, NAFTA may be seen as part of a class project (Harvey 2007 [this volume]). Although the treaty may have had mixed effects on workers in Mexico and the United States, its effects in terms of profits and capital accumulation are clear—never before have large firms experienced such an economic bonanza. At the same time, the period coinciding with NAFTA's implementation has witnessed significant growths in class inequality in the two countries. ¶ Unique in the international landscape is the contradiction of attempting to liberalize trade while at the same time trying to force workers to remain fixed in space. The refusal on the part of the architects of NAFTA to consider labor flows as part of the neoliberal project has given rise to several unintended consequences. First, the reduction of public spending in Mexico, the removal of subsidies to subsistence agriculture, the opening of feed and seed markets, and the commercialization of communal lands have had a displacing effect, leading peasants to seek economic opportunities in the neighboring country. ¶ Second, the continuation of migration flows have [sic] been met in the United States with growing attempts at curtailment. Since 1986, and especially in the 9/11 aftermath, U.S. immigration policy has become increasingly repressive and equally ineffective. Border blockades have led would-be immigrants to more remote and hazardous points of entry, boosting the number of deaths but reduc ing the probability that they will be detained. Paradoxically, greater repression has not reduced the likelihood of undocumented migration. ¶ Third, tighter migration policies have also fomented the growth of a finely tuned machine of smugglers and false document manufacturers, all of whom are paid sizeable sums to aid immigrants. That vibrant economic sector increasingly includes drug traders and sex traffickers whose resources are now needed to oil the wheels of undocumented migration. ¶ Fourth, and perhaps most important, the harsher character of U.S. immigration policy is leading to the expansion of the undocumented Mexican population in the United States. Immigrants are behaving just as economists would predict by engaging in cost-benefit calculations that lead them to stay in areas of destination for longer periods of time to avoid the risks of exit and reentry. The presence of an expanded undocumented population on American soil does not bode well for individuals or families. Without avenues for integration, in the face of public hostility, and with few opportunities to improve their educational and occupational standing, many of those immigrants may yet become part of a new Latino underclass. ¶ This dire forecast is not only counter to the image of a country defined by democracy, fair play, and opportunity but is also in conflict with the stated objectives of a treaty that has demolished barriers for capital with unprecedented success. Time is running out, but perhaps it is still possible to reconcile facts with theory. Borders for whom? The present situation indicates that borders stand mainly to contain the most vulnerable sectors of society while they become more and more permeable for those in positions of power.
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Fernández-Kelly and Massey 2007—Patricia Fernandez-Kelly holds a joint position in the department of sociology and Office of Population Research at Princeton University. She has written extensively on globalization, industrial recomposition, international migration, and gender. Douglas S. Massey is the Henry G. Bryant Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs at Princeton University and president of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. [“ Borders for Whom? The Role of NAFTA in Mexico-U.S. Migration.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science , Vol. 610, NAFTA and Beyond: Alternative Perspectives in the Study of Global Trade and Development (Mar., 2007), pp. 98-118]//MM
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a major objective behind NAFTA was not simply the liberalization of trade but the creation of suitable conditions for the realization of profits by U.S. financial institutions and manufacturers through carefully regulated investment in Mexico. NAFTA is more about controlled trade. The financial crisis of the 1980s , brought about a new coalition that included U.S. banking interests and their representatives in Washington, Mexican public officials, and large business interests in both countries. NAFTA's silence with respect to labor rights and worker mobility is comprehensible in the observation that, contrary to the basic precepts of economic integration, the overarching goal of the treaty was to advance the economic interests of a new binational class of investors, not the fortunes of citizens in general. the period coinciding with NAFTA's implementation has witnessed significant growths in class inequality in the two countries. The refusal on the part of the architects of NAFTA to consider labor flows as part of the neoliberal project has given rise to several unintended consequences. the reduction of public spending in Mexico, the removal of subsidies to subsistence agriculture, the opening of feed and seed markets, and the commercialization of communal lands have had a displacing effect , the continuation of migration flows have [sic] been met in the United States with growing attempts at curtailment .S. immigration policy has become increasingly repressive and equally ineffective greater repression has not reduced the likelihood of undocumented migration. tighter migration policies have also fomented the growth of a finely tuned machine of smugglers and false document manufacturers, all of whom are paid sizeable sums to aid immigrants. That vibrant economic sector increasingly includes drug traders and sex traffickers , the harsher character of U.S. immigration policy is leading to the expansion of the undocumented Mexican population in the United States. Without avenues for integration, in the face of public hostility, and with few opportunities to improve their educational and occupational standing, many of those immigrants may yet become part of a new Latino underclass. The present situation indicates that borders stand mainly to contain the most vulnerable sectors of society while they become more and more permeable for those in positions of power.
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Neoliberal policy, especially NAFTA, is the root cause of all problems on the US-Mexico border
| 4,791 | 94 | 2,399 | 753 | 15 | 363 | 0.01992 | 0.482072 |
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Therefore, a good deal of respected multilateral rules –among many other things- is¶ necessary to take advantage of the opportunities set forth by the new international¶ economy. Some countries may find that the WTO umbrella covers every field of interest¶ for them. Others may consider that deeper economic integration is a better instrument. All¶ Latin American countries consider (although in various degrees, and with different timings)¶ that deeper integration is preferred, and therefore they have agreed to establish the Free¶ Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA).¶ The FTAA must:¶ • Respect national sovereignty, that is, the domain of national constitutions and laws.¶ • Ensure market access for Latin American goods and services, not only through duty¶ free status in all the relevant markets, but also by rendering their exports free of other¶ “exports harassment measures”. This means a predictable and transparent system for¶ export and imports.¶ • The mechanism for resolution of disputes should be flexible and as inexpensive as¶ possible.¶ • The different mechanisms of the agreement should be geared to promote investments.¶ • Facilitate cooperation among countries to take advantage of the proximity of the¶ countries involved, reducing transportation costs (through public and private¶ investments in the corresponding infrastructure), taking measures to facilitate trade,¶ solving migratory problems and, in general, reducing transaction costs.¶ • Last but not least, the FTAA must serve as an input to a better life, taking advantage of¶ the specialization process, and striving to avoid the negative aspects of “development”5.¶ The main objet of analysis in this paper is the “NAFTA model for trade and¶ environment”. Therefore we are not going to argue on the last two issues, but on the lessons¶ and the conclusions Latin American countries may draw from this model. That is, we¶ assume (as we have showed in another place6) that somehow both issues should be dealt¶ upon in the context of the FTAA or in other context, as long as it is a convincing one.
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Gitli and Murillo April 2000 * The authors are senior researchers at the International Center on Economic Policy for Sustainable¶ Development of the Universidad Nacional in Heredia Costa Rica (CINPE). They also coordinate the Project¶ Integration, Trade and Environment (INCA)¶ (Eduardo and Carlos, “A Latin American Perspective on the NAFTA Model for Trade and Environment Issues in the FTAA Context,” http://www.iatp.org/files/latin_american_perspective_on_the_nafta_model_.pdf)//MW
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. All¶ Latin American countries consider hat deeper integration is preferred therefore they have agreed to establish Free¶ Trade Agreement and The main objet of analysis in this paper is the “NAFTA model for trade and¶ environment and the Latin American countries may draw from this model both issues should be dealt¶ upon in the context of the FTAA or in other context, as long as it is a convincing one
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LA wants Free Trade- They will use NAFTA as a model
| 2,080 | 51 | 404 | 326 | 11 | 71 | 0.033742 | 0.217791 |
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The net benefits accruing to the developing Mexican economy from liberalizing trade with its industrialized North American neighbors stimulate the Mexican government to expand its free trade policy. Mexico signed bilateral trade agreements with 10 countries over the last 7 years. These countries included developing countries in Latin American as well as industrialized economies such as the EFTA members and the European Union. The new Mexican FTAs are all modeled after the NAFTA, a rules-based agreement with a clearly defined dispute settlement (Diaz). The Mexican experience under NAFTA has shows a country rapidly expanding exports, not only to North America but to the world. Mexico received increased infusions of FDI from investors around the world during NAFTA negotiations and following NAFTA implementation. Mexico has ben able to maintain economic reforms, even under the severe financial crisis of 1994-95. Empirical studies of NAFTA trade liberalization have indicated significant impacts for the Mexican economy form trade liberalization with Canada and the United States (Kehoe and Kehoe). The Mexican economy was expected to experience the greatest adjustments under the NAFTA, due to the small relative size of its economy and higher levels of protectionism. Lopez-Cordova reports Mexican real per capita GDP only 34 percent of US GDP in 1994, suggesting large factor endowment differences between Mexico and its northern neighbors. Large differences in factor endowments prior to trade liberalization suggest large trade and production effects from liberalization. Jordanian per capita GDP in 2000 was 5 percent of US per capita GDP. Like Mexico, Jordan is expected to experience efficiency and welfare gains from resource adjustments under the trade liberalization measures of the FTA.
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Chomo, 02 (Grace Victoria-master in the fields of International trade and marketing, market research, international finance, WTO agreements, 2002, “Free Trade Agreements Between Developing and Industrialized Countries: Comparing the U.S.-Jordan FTA with Mexico’s Experience Under NAFTA,” http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=oTvAV27FvocC&oi=fnd&pg=PA2&dq=countries+modeled+after+NAFTA&ots=aRLQbJN9Rt&sig=aYPK3kiDjd3VmzQM9jpRMC7WtdM#v=onepage&q=countries%20modeled%20after%20NAFTA&f=false
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The net benefits accruing to the developing Mexican economy from liberalizing trade with its industrialized North American neighbors stimulate the Mexican government to expand its free trade policy. Mexico signed bilateral trade agreements with 10 countries over the last 7 years. These countries included developing countries in Latin American as well as industrialized economies The Mexican experience under NAFTA has shows a country rapidly expanding exports, not only to North America but to the world. Mexico received increased infusions of FDI from investors around the world during NAFTA negotiations and following NAFTA implementation. Mexico has ben able to maintain economic reforms, even under the severe financial crisis of 1994-95. Empirical studies of NAFTA trade liberalization have indicated significant impacts for the Mexican economy form trade liberalization with Canada and the United States
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NAFTA success encourages Mexico to liberalize and sign other FTAs
| 1,807 | 65 | 911 | 270 | 10 | 132 | 0.037037 | 0.488889 |
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Since the 1994 implementation of NAFTA, massive rural to urban migration took place within Mexico as agrarian farmers moved to metropolitan centers. This tri-lateral free-trade agreement between the Canada, the United States and Mexico was unprecedented, particularly the relationship between the United States and Mexico, as states with such drastically different levels of development merged their economies. This paper will examine which factors are responsible for this massive internal migration within Mexico following the integration of the North American economies. There are two highly divergent explanations for the Mexican migration and subsequent urbanization that followed the signing of NAFTA, which I will detail in the literature review. The determination of the culpable factors for this migratory flow is crucial because the accepted interpretation will significantly influence how states will approach free-trade agreements and their inclusion of rules pertaining to the trade of agricultural commodities in the future. This study is particularly pertinent as the looming Panama and Colombia free trade agreements, modeled after NAFTA, are currently being debated by the United States Congress.
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Prospect Journal, 10 (4/19/10, “NAFTA AND US CORN SUBSIDIES: EXPLAINING THE DISPLACEMENT OF MEXICO’S CORN FARMERS,” http://prospectjournal.org/2010/04/19/nafta-and-u-s-corn-subsidies-explaining-the-displacement-of-mexicos-corn-farmers/
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Since the 1994 implementation of NAFTA, massive rural to urban migration took place within Mexico as agrarian farmers moved to metropolitan centers. This tri-lateral free-trade agreement between the Canada, the United States and Mexico was unprecedented the looming Panama and Colombia free trade agreements modeled after NAFTA, are currently being debated by the United States Congress.
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Future Latin American FTAs will be modeled after NAFTA
| 1,213 | 54 | 387 | 173 | 9 | 56 | 0.052023 | 0.323699 |
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As of January 2006, Brazil had realized approximately US$ 88 billion in sales revenue and some US$ 18 billion in debt transfer as a result of its privatization program. Foreign investment accounted for approximately 48% of that total. Despite the importance of foreign investment to its economy and unlike all other South American states, Brazil is not a party to any bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and has not ratified the ICSID Convention. One of the reasons for Brazil’s apparent reluctance to bind itself to such agreements is legal uncertainty. Specifically, there is controversy in Brazil with respect to whether ratification of such agreements is prohibited under Brazilian law on grounds that it impedes the sovereign right of the state. However, others note that Brazil may lawfully, and in fact has previously consented to binding foreign arbitration by routinely entering into contracts that provide for such dispute resolution mechanisms. Meanwhile, pressure to ratify BITs builds from Brazilian investors, who have become increasingly internationalized. Indeed, in 2006, Brazilian companies invested more overseas (US$28 billion) than the country received in foreign investment. While Brazil’s outward foreign investment flows have since dipped, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Sustainable Development, Brazil remains one of Latin America’s leading exporters of capital. Not surprisingly, Brazilian multinationals are asking for BITs and the protection they promise. ITN has interviewed three lawyers to seek their views on whether Brazil should begin ratifying bilateral investment treaties, and if so, why. Nathalie Bernasconi Osterwalder is the Managing Attorney at the Centre for International Environmental Law. Todd Weiler, is a professor, arbitrator, legal counsel and consultant in international economic law. Pedro Alberto Costa Braga de Oliveira is a Brazilian lawyer, and currently general counsel of Enel Brasil Participações, an indirect subsidiary company of Enel S.p.A.
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Whitsitt 2008 – journalist for Investment Treaty News, law degree from NYU, assistant professor of International Trade Law and International Investment Law at University of Calgary Law School (Elizabeth, Damon Vis-Dumbar “INVESTMENT ARBITRATION IN BRAZIL: YES OR NO?” 30 November 2008 http://www.iisd.org/itn/2008/11/30/investment-arbitration-in-brazil-yes-or-no/ //SRM)
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As of January 2006 Brazil had realized $ 88 billion in sales revenue and 18 billion in debt transfer as a result of its privatization program Foreign investment accounted for 48% of that total Brazil is not a party to any bilateral investment treaties One of the reasons for Brazil’s apparent reluctance to bind itself to such agreements is legal uncertainty there is controversy with respect to whether ratification of such agreements it impedes the sovereign right of the state Brazil has previously consented to binding foreign arbitration Brazil remains one of Latin America’s leading exporters of capital
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Brazil quit NAFTA-like trade agreements because of similar investment arbitration issues; this could inspire Mexico to leave NAFTA if the U.S. doesn’t initiate a plan to fix them
| 2,029 | 178 | 609 | 297 | 28 | 98 | 0.094276 | 0.329966 |
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Since September 11, and especially since the Iraq war began and crude oil¶ prices soared, US policymakers have rediscovered their latent concerns¶ over the adequacy of regional energy supplies. Development of oil and¶ gas fields, as well as construction of new energy distribution channels, is¶ a high priority-though for somewhat different reasons-in both Canada¶ and Mexico as well. Yet energy security initiatives, including expansion of¶ North American production of oil and gas, have failed in Congress due to¶ parochial demands of politicians. As a result, three important problems¶ continue to fester.¶ First, the region is not producing enough oil and gas given its vast re-¶ serves. Coupled with a sharp decline in spare production capacity world-¶ wide, North America is now more vulnerable to volatile energy price¶ Swings. New production in North America could help reduce the high security premium now embedded in crude oil contracts.¶ Second, differing product standards and inadequate investment in new¶ refineries have led to supply bottlenecks for petroleum products, most notably gasoline. Here again, new NAFTA projects could boost local supplies and help protect against supply disruptions elsewhere. Third, the blackout that deprived 50 million Americans and Canadians¶ of electricity in August 2003 underscored the problems of aging electrical¶ transmission systems. The regulatory reforms needed to spur new in-¶ frastructure investment have long been debated, but efforts to implement¶ reforms usually run afoul of some federal or state/ provincial rules. Hope-¶ fully, the electric shock of the northeast blackout in August 2003 will ener-¶ gize the reform process. The US-Canada Power System Outage Task Force,¶ created after the August 2003 blackout, reported that system failure was¶ preventable and would have been prevented if grid operators had fol-¶ lowed voluntary reliability standards. Noting that many of the causes of¶ the 2003 blackout had been exposed through investigations of prior black-¶ outs but remained unaddressed, the task force laid out 46 specific recom-¶ mendations for the United States and Canada. First among these was to¶ make reliability standards mandatory with penalties for noncompliance.
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Hufbauer and Schott ’05 – Hufbauer is Reginald Jones Senior Fellow since 1992, Marcus Wallenberg Professor of International Finance Diplomacy at Georgetown University, deputy assistant secretary for international trade and investment policy of the US Treasury; Schott is a senior fellow since 1983, was senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and international economist at the US treasury (Gary Clyde and Jeffrey J, “NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges,” Chapter 9: Recommendations for North American Economic Integration, Institute for International Economics, October 2005)//ER
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US policymakers have rediscovered their latent concerns¶ over the adequacy of regional energy supplies. Development of oil and¶ gas fields, as well as construction of new energy distribution channels, is¶ a high priority energy security initiatives, including expansion of¶ North American production of oil and gas, have failed in Congress due to¶ parochial demands of politicians. three important problems¶ continue to fester.¶ the region is not producing enough oil and gas given its vast re-¶ serves. North America is now more vulnerable to volatile energy price¶ Swings. New production in North America could help reduce the high security premium now embedded in crude oil contracts.¶ Second, differing product standards and inadequate investment in new¶ refineries have led to supply bottlenecks for petroleum products, most notably gasoline new NAFTA projects could boost local supplies and help protect against supply disruptions elsewhere. the blackout that deprived 50 million Americans and Canadians¶ of electricity in August 2003 underscored the problems of aging electrical¶ transmission systems. The US-Canada Power System Outage Task Force,¶ created after the August 2003 blackout, reported that system failure was¶ preventable and would have been prevented if grid operators had fol-¶ lowed voluntary reliability standards.
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New NAFTA policies solve oil supply disruptions
| 2,247 | 48 | 1,338 | 336 | 7 | 195 | 0.020833 | 0.580357 |
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The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), in effect since January 1994, plays a very strong role in the bilateral economic relationship between Mexico and the United States. The two countries are also closely tied in areas not directly related to trade and investment such as security, environmental, migration, and health issues. The effects of NAFTA on Mexico and the Mexican economic situation have impacts on U.S. economic and political interests. A number of policymakers have raised the issue of revisiting NAFTA and renegotiating parts of the agreement. Some important factors in evaluating NAFTA include the effects of the agreement on Mexico and how these relate to U.S.-Mexico economic relations. In the 111th Congress, major issues of concern are related to U.S.-Mexico trade issues, economic conditions in Mexico, the effect of NAFTA on the United States and Mexico, and Mexican migrant workers in the United States. In 1990, Mexico approached the United States with the idea of forming a free trade agreement (FTA). Mexico’s main motivation in pursuing an FTA with the United States was to stabilize the Mexican economy and promote economic development by attracting foreign direct investment, increasing exports, and creating jobs. The Mexican economy had experienced many difficulties throughout most of the 1980s with a significant deepening of poverty. The expectation among supporters at the time was that NAFTA would improve investor confidence in Mexico, increase export diversification, create higher-skilled jobs, increase wage rates, and reduce poverty. It was expected that, over time, NAFTA would narrow the income differentials between Mexico and the United States and Canada. The effects of NAFTA on the Mexican economy are difficult to isolate from other factors that affect the economy, such as economic cycles in the United States (Mexico’s largest trading partner) and currency fluctuations. In addition, Mexico’s unilateral trade liberalization measures of the 1980s and the currency crisis of 1995 both affected economic growth, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), and real wages. While NAFTA may have brought economic and social benefits to the Mexican economy as a whole, the benefits have not been evenly distributed throughout the country. The agricultural sector experienced a higher amount of worker displacement after NAFTA, in part because of increased competition from the United States but also because of Mexican domestic agricultural reforms. In terms of regional effects, initial conditions in Mexico appear to have determined which Mexican states experienced stronger economic growth as a result of NAFTA. Some economists argue that while trade liberalization may narrow income disparities over the long run with other countries, it may indirectly lead to larger disparities in income levels within a country. Over the last decade, the economic relationship between the United States and Mexico has strengthened significantly and the two countries continue to cooperate on issues of mutual concern. President Barack Obama met with Mexican President Calderón in May 2010 during the Mexican president’s official state visit to the United States. The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to increasing cooperation in a wide range of issues, including enhancing mutual economic growth. A key component for their global competitiveness initiative is to create a border the for the Twenty-First Century that will expand and modernize border facilities for a secure and more efficient border.
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Villarreal, 10 M. Angeles Villarreal, specialist in International Trade and Finance, “NAFTA and the Mexican Economy”, 6/3/10, (http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34733.pdf)
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The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), in effect since January 1994, plays a very strong role in the bilateral economic relationship between Mexico and the United States. . The effects of NAFTA on Mexico and the Mexican economic situation have impacts on U.S. economic and political interests. A number of policymakers have raised the issue of revisiting NAFTA and renegotiating parts of the agreement. Some important factors in evaluating NAFTA include the effects of the agreement on Mexico and how these relate to U.S.-Mexico economic relations major issues of concern are related to U.S.-Mexico trade issues Over the last decade, the economic relationship between the United States and Mexico has strengthened significantly the two countries continue to cooperate on issues of mutual concern The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to increasing cooperation in a wide range of issues, including enhancing mutual economic growth. A key component for their global competitiveness initiative is to create a border the for the Twenty-First Century that will expand and modernize border facilities for a secure and more efficient border.
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Reaffirming a commitment to free trade is key to US-Mexico relations
| 3,547 | 68 | 1,150 | 537 | 11 | 176 | 0.020484 | 0.327747 |
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On March 16, 2009, Mexico announced its intention to impose $2.4 billion in tariffs on United States (U.S.) imports in response to the termination of a cross-border trucking Demonstration Project by the U.S. The Demonstration Project, which licensed a select number of Mexican tractor-trailers (motor carriers) to operate in the U.S., was created by the Bush administration after a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) arbitration panel held that the U.S. was in violation of NAFTA’s cross-border trucking provisions. Although the Demonstration Project did not technically satisfy the NAFTA cross-border trucking provisions, which basically entitled all Mexican trucks to operate within the U.S., it served as an armistice in the growing controversy between the U.S. and Mexico. However, Congress broke the truce on March 11, 2009, when it removed funding from the Demonstration Project, and Mexico immediately struck back with tariffs on a variety of agricultural and industrial products. The dispute over cross-border trucking has incited a “trade war” that threatens tens of thousands of U.S. jobs and seriously undermines U.S.–Mexico relations.
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MacDonald 2010 – Vanderbilt University, doctorate in law, associate lawyer at Latham & Watkins, (Chad, Jan 8 2010, “NAFTA CROSS-BORDER TRUCKING: MEXICO RETALIATES AFTER CONGRESS STOPS MEXICAN TRUCKS AT THE BORDER”//SRM)
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On March 16, 2009, Mexico announced its intention to impose $2.4 billion in tariffs on (U.S.) imports in response to the termination of a cross-border trucking Demonstration Project by the U.S after a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) arbitration panel held that the U.S. was in violation of NAFTA’s cross-border trucking provisions Congress removed funding from the Demonstration Project, and Mexico immediately struck back with tariffs on a variety of agricultural and industrial products. The dispute over cross-border trucking has incited a “trade war” that threatens tens of thousands of U.S. jobs and seriously undermines U.S.–Mexico relations.
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Effective dispute resolution is key to US-Mexico relations
| 1,155 | 58 | 660 | 172 | 8 | 98 | 0.046512 | 0.569767 |
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The bilateral economic and trade relationship with Mexico is of interest to U.S. policymakers because of Mexico’s proximity to the United States, the high level of bilateral trade, and the strong cultural and economic ties that connect the two countries. Also, it is of national interest for the United States to have a prosperous and democratic Mexico as a neighboring country. Mexico is the United States’ third-largest trading partner, while the United States is, by far, Mexico’s largest trading partner. Mexico ranks third as a source of U.S. imports, after China and Canada, and second, after Canada, as an export market for U.S. goods and services. The United States is the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico. The United States and Mexico have strong economic ties through the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which has been in effect since 1994. Prior to NAFTA, Mexico had followed a strong protectionist policy for decades until it began to unilaterally liberalize its trade regime in the late 1980s. Not all trade-related job gains and losses since NAFTA can be entirely attributed to the agreement because of the numerous factors that affect trade, such as Mexico’s trade liberalization efforts, economic conditions, and currency fluctuations. NAFTA may have accelerated the ongoing trade and investment trends that were already taking place at the time. Most studies show that the net economic effects of NAFTA on both countries have been small but positive, though there have been adjustment costs to some sectors within both countries.
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Villarreal 2012 – Specialist in International Trade and Finance, Congressional Research Service (M. Angeles, “U.S-MEXICO ECONOMIC RELATIONS: TRENDS, ISSUES, AND IMPLICATIONS” August 9, 2012 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32934.pdf //SRM)
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The trade relationship with Mexico is of interest to U.S. policymakers because of Mexico’s proximity to the United States Mexico is the United States’ third-largest trading partner Mexico ranks third as a source of U.S. imports The United States and Mexico have strong economic ties through NAFTA since 1994 Prior to NAFTA Mexico had followed a strong protectionist policy for decades until it began to iberalize its trade regime NAFTA accelerated trade and investment trends the net economic effects of NAFTA on both countries have been positive
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NAFTA is necessary for good US-Mexico relations
| 1,586 | 47 | 546 | 252 | 7 | 87 | 0.027778 | 0.345238 |
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3,135 |
To study racism is to study walls. We have looked at barriers and fences, restraints and limitations, ghettos and prisons. The prison of racism confines us all, people of color and white people alike. It shackles the victimizer as well as the victim. The walls forcibly keep people of color and white people separate from each other in our separate prisons we are all prevented from achieving the human potential that God intends for us. The limitations imposed on people of color by poverty, subservience, and powerlessness are cruel, inhuman, and unjust; the effects of uncontrolled power, privilege, and greed, which are marks of our white prison, will inevitably destroy us as well. But we have also seen that the walls of racism can be dismantled. We are not condemned to an inexorable fate, but are offered the vision and the possibility of freedom. Brick by brick, stone by stone, the prison of individual, institutional, and cultural racism can be destroyed. You and I are urgently called to join the efforts of those who know it is time to tear down, once and for all, the walls of racism. The danger point of self-destruction seems to be drawing ever more near. The results of centuries of national and worldwide conquest and colonialism, of military buildups and violent aggression, of overconsumption and environmental destruction may be reaching a point of no return. A small and predominantly white minority of the global population derives its power and privileges from the suffering of the vast majority of people of color. For the sake of the world and ourselves, we dare not allow it to continue.
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Barndt, 1991 (Joseph, co-director of Crossroads, an organization that focuses on addressing racism, Dismantling Racism, p.155-6)
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The prison of racism confines us all It shackles the victimizer as well as the victim. The walls forcibly keep people of color and white people separate from each other in our separate prisons we are all prevented from achieving the human potential The limitations imposed on people of color by poverty, subservience, and powerlessness are cruel, inhuman, and unjust; the effects of uncontrolled power, privilege, and greed, which are marks of our white prison, will inevitably destroy us as well we have also seen that the walls of racism can be dismantled Brick by brick, stone by stone, the prison of individual, institutional, and cultural racism can be destroyed The danger point of self-destruction seems to be drawing ever more near. The results of centuries of national and worldwide conquest and colonialism, of military buildups and violent aggression, of overconsumption and environmental destruction may be reaching a point of no return. A small and predominantly white minority of the global population derives its power and privileges from the suffering of the vast majority of people of color. For the sake of the world and ourselves, we dare not allow it to continue
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Racism makes extinction inevitable –
| 1,614 | 36 | 1,182 | 272 | 5 | 193 | 0.018382 | 0.709559 |
Cuba Bananas Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 4WeekSeniors.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,136 |
Within ruling class circles in the US since at least 2000 there is an open acceptance that theirs is an imperial state and that the US should maintain or act to restore its dominant position in the 21st century by any means available, and certainly by force if need be. The whole tenor of the debate in the past two decades over US foreign policy, Mann (2007) notes, is framed in these terms. In this connection, Richard Hass, the current director of Policy Planning in the State Department, wrote an essay in November 2000 advocating that the US adopt an «imperial» foreign policy. He defined this as «a foreign policy that attempts to organise the world along certain principles affecting relations between states and conditions within them». This would not be achieved through colonization or colonies but thorough what he termed «informal control» based on a «good neighbour policy» backed up by military force if and when necessary—harking back to the «informal empire» of a previous era (McLean, 1995; Roorda, 1998). Mechanisms such as international financial markets and structural reforms in macroeconomic policy, and agencies such as the World Bank, the WTO and the IMF, would work to ensure the dominance of US interests, with the military iron fist backing up the invisible hand of the market and any failure in multilateral security arrangements. This system of «economic imperialism», maintained by US hegemony as leader of the «free world» (representing the virtues of capitalist democracy), was in place and fully functioning from the 1950s throughout the 1980s and the reign of Ronald Reagan. In the 1990s, with the disappearance of the threat of the Soviet Union and international communism, this system of economic imperialism, based as it was on the hegemony of «democracy and freedom» as well as multilateralism in international security arrangements, did not as much break down as it was eclipsed by the emergence of the «new imperialism» based on the unilateral projection of military force as a means of securing world domination in «the American century».7 This conception of a «new imperialism», a «raw imperialism» that would not «hesitate to use [coercive] force if, when and where necessary» (Cooper, 2000), based on «aggressive multilateralism» or the unilateral projection, and strategic use, of state power including emphatic military force, was advanced in neoconservative circles over years of largely internal debate, and put into practice by a succession of regimes, both democratic and republican. It achieved its consummate form in George W. Bush’s White House, in the Gang of Four (Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, Condoleeza Rice, Dick Cheney),8 and its maximum expression in a policy of imperial war in the Middle east and the Gulf region. Although the US also projected its military power in other theatres of imperial war such as Yugoslavia9 and Colombia (viz. the covert Colombia– centred class war «on subversives» against the FARC–EP’ and the overt regional «war on drugs») the policy of imperial war and the strategy of military force were primarily directed towards the Gulf region (see, inter alia, Petras and Veltmeyer, 2003). In the academic world the issue as to the specific or dominant form taken by imperialism has not been generally framed as a matter of when and under what circumstances military force might be needed or legitimately used (generally seen as a «last resort» but as the necessary part of the arsenal of force available to the state, conceived of as the only legitimate repository of the use of violence in the «national interest»). Rather, the issue of armed force in the imperialist projection of military power has been framed in terms of an understanding, or the argument. That an imperial order cannot be maintained by force and coercion; it requires «hegemony», which is to say, acquiescence by the subalterns of imperial power achieved by a widespread belief in the legitimacy of that power generated by an overarching myth or dominant ideology—the idea of freedom in the post world war II context of the «cold war» against communism and the idea of globalization in the new imperial order established in the 1980s. Power relations of domination and subordination, even when backed up by coercive or armed force, invariably give rise to resistance, and are only sustainable if and when they are legitimated by an effective ideology—ideas of «democracy» and «freedom» in the case of the American empire or «globalization» in the case of the economic imperialism that came into play in the 1990s. It is no accident that the 1990s saw the advent of a new— military—form of imperialism. For one thing, the idea of globalization, used to legitimate and justify neoliberal policies of stabilisation and structural reform, had lost its commanding force—its hold over the minds of people, particularly among classes within the popular sector. As a result, the 1990s in Latin America saw the advent and workings of powerful forces of resistance to the neoliberal policy agenda and the machinations of US imperialism. To combat these forces of resistance state officials resorted to different strategies and tactics as dictated by circumstances, generally by combining development assistance and outright repression (on this see Petras and Veltmeyer, 2003).
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Veltmeyer, professor of Sociology and International Development Studies at Saint Mary's University, 2011 (Henry Veltmeyer PhD. in Political Science from McMaster University, “US Imperialism in Latin America: Then and Now, Here and There”, Critical Development Studies, Vol. 1:1, 2011, pp. 95-97 )
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Within ruling class circles in the US there is an open acceptance that theirs is an imperial state and that the US should maintain or restore its dominant position by any means available The whole tenor of the debate is framed in these terms This system of economic imperialism maintained by US as leader of the free world was in place and fully functioning from the This conception of a new imperialism that would not hesitate to use emphatic military force was advanced in neoconservative circles It achieved its consummate form in Bush’s White House and its maximum expression in a policy of imperial war Power relations of domination and subordination even when backed by armed force invariably give rise to resistance and are only sustainable if and when they are legitimated by an effective ideology ideas of globalization in the case of the economic imperialism that came into play a new military imperialism resorted to different strategies by combining development assistance and outright repression
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Economic imperialism causes war
| 5,325 | 31 | 1,008 | 858 | 4 | 165 | 0.004662 | 0.192308 |
Cuba Bananas Affirmative Supplement - Northwestern 2013 4WeekSeniors.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,137 |
The large spike in illicit outflows following the implementation of NAFTA would imply that much of those outflows were indeed headed for the United States. This suggests that U.S. policymakers have a significant role to play in curtailing the flow of illicit money out of their southern neighbor.¶ In addition to the U.S., tax havens in the Caribbean and Europe were the second and third largest recipients of Mexican capital outflows.¶ Drug Cartels and National Security Risk¶ A large portion of drug cartel activity is conducted in cash, and none of those cash transactions are detected in GFI's data, which is one of the reasons why the organization believes its figures to be extremely conservative. That said, drug cartels like many criminal enterprises also utilize legitimate commercial transactions to launder their profits. In fact, the Los Angeles Times reported last month that Mexican drug cartels were utilizing trade-based money laundering techniques to move their money across the U.S.-Mexico border. Those kinds of business transactions would show up in the organizations data, however it cannot be determined exactly how much of the trade mispricing in GFI's report is attributable to the activities of drug cartels.¶ As such, the organization believes that this has serious implications for national security.¶ "The ease with which money can be laundered across the U.S.-Mexico border via trade mispricing poses a major national security risk to both the United States and Mexico," said Mr. Baker. "Drug traffickers, like kleptocrats, terrorists and tax dodgers, all gain from anonymous shell companies, tax haven secrecy, and nefarious trade mispricing tactics. Taking steps to address these issues would curtail a number of societal ills."
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Targeted News Service, 12 (“Mexico Hemorrhages US$872 Billion to Crime, Corruption, Tax Evasion from 1970-2010,” Targeted News Service, January 29, 2012, pageLexis)//JW
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The large spike in illicit outflows following the implementation of NAFTA would imply that much of those outflows were indeed headed for the U S suggests that U.S. policymakers have a significant role to play in curtailing the flow of illicit money out of their southern neighbor drug cartels like many criminal enterprises also utilize legitimate commercial transactions to launder their profits. Mexican drug cartels were utilizing trade-based money laundering techniques to move their money across the U.S.-Mexico border "The ease with which money can be laundered across the U.S.-Mexico border via trade mispricing poses a major national security risk to both the U S Mexico, Drug traffickers, like kleptocrats, terrorists and tax dodgers, all gain from anonymous shell companies, tax haven secrecy, and nefarious trade mispricing tactics.
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Drug cartels rely on illicit financial flows (IFFs) to launder profits across the U.S.-Mexico border
| 1,759 | 100 | 843 | 273 | 15 | 128 | 0.054945 | 0.468864 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,138 |
Washington has spent much of this year showing how tough it is on tax cheats. The Justice Department triumphantly declared in August that it had reached a settlement with Swiss banking giant UBS for it to turn over the names of approximately 4,450 American account holders suspected by the IRS of evading taxes. This week, the IRS revealed the formation of a special task force to go after wealthy tax dodgers, and members of Congress introduced a bill to force foreign firms doing business in the U.S. to disclose all its U.S. clients with accounts overseas. (See 25 people to blame for the financial crisis.) But for all the bluster about cracking down on Americans who hide money overseas, the U.S. turns a virtual blind eye to foreign tax cheats who are parking money in the U.S. banking system. In particular, the U.S. effectively serves the role of Switzerland for Mexico, which suffers from rampant tax evasion — rates go as high as 70% among professionals and small businesses, and 40% among larger businesses. Much of the estimated $42 billion a year of illicit funds flowing out of Mexico each year (not including drug cartel money) ends up in U.S. banks, according to Global Financial Integrity, an advocacy group in Washington. Soon after the Obama Administration took office, Mexico sent Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner a letter complaining about the de facto secrecy U.S. banks offer Mexicans holding accounts by not reporting to anyone the names or interest income paid on those deposits. "The exchange of information on interest paid by banks will certainly provide us with a powerful tool to detect, prevent and control tax evasion, money laundering, terrorist financing, drug trafficking and organized crime," said the Feb. 9 letter from Mexican Finance Secretary Agustin Carstens, who also noted that the two countries do not have a "solid and reliable mechanism to verify actual residence of the foreign depositors." "Replace the nationalities mentioned in the letter, and you've replicated the UBS affair point for point," says Robert Goulder, international editor in chief at Tax Analysts, a nonprofit publisher about taxes worldwide, which first reported on the Carstens letter. "If you are a Mexican drug lord, you can put as much money as you want into U.S. banks. We ain't going to tax it, and the Mexicans can't tax it because they are never going to know about it. It's the financial equivalent of 'Don't ask, don't tell.' " It's not that the U.S. has no policies in place to stem the flow of illicit monies into the U.S. banking system. American banks are in fact required to file suspicious activity reports (SARs) for cash deposits over $10,000 or when they detect deposit patterns in lower amounts, known as "structuring." The problem is that the U.S. government is overwhelmed by more than a million of these reports a year. Computers can detect some irregularities, but these need to be combed through carefully by 85 SAR review teams — combining FBI, IRS, DEA and U.S. Attorneys — across the country. That's why, says international white collar crime lawyer Bruce Zagaris, "U.S. officials have practically begged banks to call them when they have something really good." (Read "The Stimulus Spending Bill: Is It Working at All?") This could change significantly with a seemingly simple regulatory adjustment, which Mexico has requested: they want the same information-exchange arrangement that Washington exclusively has with Canada, which automatically reports interest income paid by U.S. banks to Canadian account holders. "Being the world's largest trading block under the NAFTA, and fighting considerably the higher security threat than a decade ago, I truly believe that we should enhance our cooperation and strengthen our capacities to protect our peoples and wealth," Carstens wrote in his letter.
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Stier, 09— Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs (Ken, “Foreign tax cheats find US banks a safe haven”, Time—Business and Money, October 29, 2009, http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1933288,00.html)//IK
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the U.S. effectively serves the role of Switzerland for Mexico Soon after the Obama Administration took office, Mexico sent Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner a letter complaining about the de facto secrecy U.S. banks offer Mexicans holding accounts by not reporting to anyone the names or interest income paid on those deposits. "The exchange of information on interest paid by banks will certainly provide us with a powerful tool to detect, prevent and control tax evasion, money laundering, terrorist financing, drug trafficking and organized crime If you are a Mexican drug lord, you can put as much money as you want into U.S. banks. We ain't going to tax it, and the Mexicans can't tax it because they are never going to know about it. American banks are in fact required to file suspicious activity reports (SARs) for cash deposits over $10,000 or when they detect deposit patterns in lower amounts, known as "structuring." The problem is that the U.S. government is overwhelmed by more than a million of these reports a year. This could change significantly with a seemingly simple regulatory adjustment, which Mexico has requested: they want the same information-exchange arrangement that Washington exclusively has with Canada,
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Status quo banking regulations fail – only granting Mexico’s request for automatic exchange of information (AEI) solves
| 3,843 | 119 | 1,236 | 626 | 17 | 198 | 0.027157 | 0.316294 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,139 |
A new congressional report from the House Homeland Security Committee Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations and Management ties Middle East terror organizations to Mexican drug cartels. The report, released Thursday, is titled “A Line in the Sand: Countering Crime, Violence and Terror at the Southwest Border.” It found that the “Southwest border has now become the greatest threat of terrorist infiltration into the United States.” It specifically cites a “growing influence” from Iranian and Hezbollah terror forces in Latin America. “The presence of Hezbollah in Latin America is partially explained by the large Lebanese diaspora in South America,” the report reads. “In general, Hezbollah enjoys support by many in the Lebanese world community in part because of the numerous social programs it provides in Lebanon that include schools, hospitals, utilities and welfare.” The congressional report, prepared by the subcommittee’s chairman, Texas Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, argues that the “explanation for Iranian presence in Latin America begins with its symbiotic relationship with Hezbollah.” “United in their dedication to the destruction of Israel, Iran has helped Hezbollah grow from a small group of untrained guerrillas into what is arguably the most highly trained, organized and equipped terrorist organization in the world,” the report reads. “In return, Hezbollah has served as an ideal proxy for Iranian military force – particularly against Israel – which affords Iran plausible deniability diplomatically. Hence wherever Hezbollah is entrenched, Iran will be as well and vice-versa.” McCaul’s report goes on to argue Iran’s increased presence in Latin America is because of the nation’s close relationship with Venezuela – which recently re-elected socialist leader Hugo Chavez. The report found that Hezbollah’s “relationship with Mexican drug cartels,” has been “documented as early as 2005.” Quoting former Drug Enforcement Administration executive Michael Braun, the report argues these ties are troubling. “Operativesfrom FTOs (foreign terrorist organizations) and DTOs (drug trafficking organizations) are frequenting the same shady bars, the same seedy hotels and the same sweaty brothels in a growing number of areas around the world,” Braun said in a statement quoted in the report. “And what else are they doing? Based upon over 37 years in the law enforcement and security sectors, you can mark my word that they are most assuredly talking business and sharing lessons learned.” In October 2011, Iran apparently tried to exploit its ties to the drug cartels to conduct its eventually foiledassassination attempt on the Saudi ambassador to the United States. “According to a federal arrest complaint filed in New York City, the [Iranian] Qods Force attempted to hire a drug cartel (identified by other sources as the Los Zetas) to assassinate Saudi Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir for a fee of $1.5 million,” the report reads. “The terror attack was to take place at a popular restaurant in Washington, D.C. without regard to collateral deaths or damage.” “The Qods Force made this solicitation because it knows drug traffickers are willing to undertake such criminal activity in exchange for money,” the report continues. “Moreover, if this terror attack had been successful, the Qods Force intended to use the Los Zetas for other attacks in the future. Had it not been for a [Drug Enforcement Agency] DEA informant posing as the Los Zetas operative, this attack could have very well taken place.” In a previous report, McCaul’s subcommittee documented “the emerging power and influence of the Mexican drug cartels along the Southwest border.” “The report elaborated on the increasing cooperation between the drug cartels and prison and street gangs in the United States to facilitate the trafficking and sale of illicit drugs along with the enforcement of remunerations,” the recently-released report says of the previous report. “Those cartels diversified into other areas of criminality such as human smuggling and arms trafficking.” In a statement, McCaul said that “Middle East terrorist networks that continue to plot against the United States are expanding their ties to Mexican drug trafficking organizations, better positioning themselves for a possible attack on our homeland.” “This report documents the increased presence of Iran and Hezbollah in Latin America and addresses the growing concern that terrorist organizations will exploit burgeoning relationships with Mexican drug cartels to infiltrate the Southwest border undetected,” McCaul said. The subcommittee is planning a Friday hearing to further discuss the report’s findings.
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Boyle, 12 - Investigative reporter @ Daily Caller (Matthew Boyle, 16 November 2012, “Congressional report ties Middle East terrorists to Mexican drug cartels”, http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/16/congressional-report-ties-middle-east-terrorists-to-mexican-drug-cartels/)//Holmes
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A congressional report from the Homeland Security Committee ties Middle East terror organizations to Mexican drug cartels the Southwest border has now become the greatest threat of terrorist infiltration into the U S cites a “growing influence” from Iranian and Hezbollah terror forces in Latin America Hezbollah enjoys support by many in the Lebanese world community in part because of the numerous social programs it provides in Lebanon that include schools, hospitals, utilities and welfare n has helped Hezbollah grow from a small group of untrained guerrillas into what is arguably the most highly trained, organized and equipped terrorist organization in the world, Hezbollah’s “relationship with Mexican drug cartels,” has been “documented as early as 2005.” Operativesfrom FTOs and DTOs are frequenting the same shady bars, the same seedy hotels and the same sweaty brothels in a growing number of areas around the world In 2011, Iran tried to exploit its ties to the drug cartels to conduct its assassination attempt on the Saudi ambassador to the U S the Qods Force attempted to hire a drug cartel to assassinate Saudi Ambassador the emerging power and influence of the Mexican drug cartels along the Southwest border. increasing cooperation between the drug cartels and prison and street gangs in the U S facilitate the trafficking and sale of illicit drugs along with the enforcement of remunerations Middle East terrorist networks that continue to plot against the U S are expanding their ties to Mexican drug trafficking organizations, positioning themselves for a attack on our homeland the increased presence of Iran and Hezbollah will exploit burgeoning relationships with Mexican drug cartels to infiltrate the Southwest border undetected
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Terrorist groups are preparing to attack the U.S. – currently expanding their ties to Mexican drug cartels
| 4,682 | 107 | 1,756 | 707 | 17 | 275 | 0.024045 | 0.388967 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,140 |
The parallels between Pakistan and Mexico are strong enough that the U.S. military singled them out recently as the two countries where there is a risk the government could suffer a swift and catastrophic collapse, becoming a failed state. Pakistan is the greater worry because the risk of collapse is higher and because it has nuclear weapons. But Mexico is also scary: It has 100 million people on the southern doorstep of the U.S., meaning any serious instability would flood the U.S. with refugees.Mexico is also the U.S.'s second biggest trading partner. Mexico's cartels already have tentacles that stretch across the border. The U.S. Justice Department said recently that Mexican gangs are the "biggest organized crime threat to the United States," operating in at least 230 cities and towns. Crimes connected to Mexican cartels are spreading across the Southwest. Phoenix had more than 370 kidnapping cases last year, turning it into the kidnapping capital of the U.S. Most of the victims were illegal aliens or linked to the drugs trade. Former U.S. antidrug czar Barry McCaffrey said Mexico risks becoming a "narco-state" within five years if things don't improve. Outgoing CIA director Michael Hayden listed Mexico alongside Iran as a possible top challenge for President Obama. Other analysts say the risk is not that the Mexican state collapses, but rather becomes like Russia, a state heavily influenced by mafias.
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Lubnow & De Cordoba, 09 (David and José, February 21, 2009 Wall Street Journal “http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123518102536038463.html”)
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The parallels between Pakistan and Mexico are strong enough that the U.S. military singled them out as the two countries where there is a risk the government could suffer a swift and catastrophic collapse, becoming a failed state Mexico is also scary: It has 100 million people on the southern doorstep of the U.S., meaning any serious instability would flood the U.S. with refugees.Mexico is also the U.S.'s second biggest trading partner The U.S. Justice Department said that Mexican gangs are the "biggest organized crime threat to the United States," Former U.S. antidrug czar Barry McCaffrey said Mexico risks becoming a "narco-state" within five years if things don't improve. Other analysts say
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Now is key – Mexico is at risk of turning into a narco-state without intervention
| 1,428 | 81 | 701 | 229 | 15 | 112 | 0.065502 | 0.489083 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,141 |
MIAMI — There is real danger that Islamic extremistgroups such as al-Qaida and Hezbollah could form alliances with wealthy and powerful Latin American drug lords to launch new terrorist attacks, U.S. officials said Wednesday. Extremist group operativeshave already been identifiedin several Latin American countries, mostly involved in fundraising and finding logistical support. But Charles Allen, chief of intelligence analysis at the Homeland Security Department, said they could use well-established smuggling routes and drug profits to bring people or even weapons of mass destruction to the U.S."The presence of these people in the region leaves open the possibility that they will attempt to attack theUnited States," said Allen, a veteran CIA analyst. "The threats in this hemisphere are real. We cannot ignore them." Added U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration operations chief Michael Braun: "It is not in our interest to let that potpourri of scum to come together."
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Anderson, 08 (10/8/2008, Curt, AP, “US officials fear terrorist links with drug lords,” http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-10-08-805146709_x.htm)
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There is real danger that Islamic extremistgroups such as al-Qaida and Hezbollah could form alliances with wealthy and powerful Latin American drug lords to launch new terrorist attacks Extremist group operativeshave already been identifiedin several Latin American countries, mostly involved in fundraising and finding logistical support. they could use well-established smuggling routes and drug profits to bring people or even weapons of mass destruction to the U.S."The presence of these people in the region leaves open the possibility that they will attempt to attack theU S said Allen, a veteran CIA analyst The threats in this hemisphere are real.
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Drug profits will be used to finance use of WMDs against the U.S.
| 976 | 65 | 655 | 146 | 13 | 99 | 0.089041 | 0.678082 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,142 |
Washington’s early response to a terrorist nuclear attack on its own soil might also raise the possibility of an unwanted (and nuclear aided) confrontation with Russia and/or China. For example, in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclear attack, the U.S. president might be expected to place the country’s armed forces, including its nuclear arsenal, on a higher stage of alert. In such a tense environment, when careful planning runs up against the friction of reality, it is just possible that Moscow and/or China might mistakenly read this as a sign of U.S. intentions to use force (and possibly nuclear force) against them. In that situation, the temptations to preempt such actions might grow, although it must be admitted that any preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response. As part of its initial response to the act of nuclear terrorism (as discussed earlier) Washington might decide to order a significant conventional (or nuclear) retaliatory or disarming attack against the leadership of the terrorist group and/or states seen to support that group. Depending on the identity and especially the location of these targets, Russia and/or China might interpret such action as being far too close for their comfort, and potentially as an infringement on their spheres of influence and even on their sovereignty. One far-fetched but perhaps not impossible scenario might stem from a judgment in Washington that some of the main aiders and abetters of the terrorist action resided somewhere such as Chechnya, perhaps in connection with what Allison claims is the “Chechen insurgents’ … long-standing interest in all things nuclear.”42 American pressure on that part of the world would almost certainly raise alarms in Moscow that might require a degree of advanced consultation from Washington that the latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide.
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Ayson, 10 - Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington, (Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
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Washington’s early response to a terrorist nuclear attack might raise the possibility of an unwanted (and nuclear aided) confrontation with Russia and/or China in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath the U.S. president might be expected to place the country’s armed forces, including its nuclear arsenal, on a higher stage of alert. In such a tense environment it is just possible that Moscow and/or China might mistakenly read this as a sign of U.S. intentions to use force (and possibly nuclear force) against them. In that situation, the temptations to preempt such actions might grow any preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response As part of its initial response Washington might decide to order a significant conventional (or nuclear) retaliatory or disarming attack against the leadership of the terrorist group and/or states seen to support that group Russia and/or China might interpret such action as being far too close for their comfort, and potentially as an infringement on their spheres of influence and even on their sovereignty
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U.S. retaliation causes extinction
| 1,921 | 34 | 1,083 | 303 | 4 | 171 | 0.013201 | 0.564356 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,143 |
In a nation with nearly half the population living in poverty, more than $872 billion has been lost to the Mexican economy over four decades to tax evasion, corruption and criminals, according to a report prepared by the group Global Financial Integrity.¶ The report buttresses long-held concerns about the Mexican government’s inability to control its booming underground economy and the outflow of money to foreign havens.¶ The report, released exclusively to The Dallas Morning News and the Mexico City magazine Proceso, says the overall loss through 41 years, from 1970 through 2010, averages 5.2 percent of the country’s annual gross domestic product, or GDP.¶ “This is a devastatingly large amount of money for any developing country to lose,” said Raymond W. Baker, director of Washington-based GFI, a research organization that advocates curtailing illicit cash flows out of developing countries. “$872 billion is gone, which could have been used to develop the Mexican economy, to invest in education, to build roads or to fight the drug cartels. The negative ramifications are huge for everyday Mexicans.”¶ Surprisingly, perhaps, the biggest share of the money does not represent the illicit proceeds of the country’s drug cartels. Instead, the biggest share is money lost to tax evaders using myriad schemes to avoid contributing to the country’s coffers.¶ Moreover, the growing volume of legitimate trade between Mexico and the U.S. — now nearly $400 billion a year — makes it extremely difficult for authorities on both sides of the border to detect the illicit outflows. In the last decade, after passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the cross-border illicit outflow of money increased to about $50 billion a year, up from an average of $3 billion in the 1970s, when Mexico had a much more closed economy.¶ “We find that trade liberalization without strong regulatory oversight, as in the case of India, is probably responsible for larger illicit outflows through trade mispricing,” the report says. Trade mispricing is the practice of either overstating or understating invoices for transactions.¶ Pedro Canabal, a spokesman for Mexico’s tax agency, described the rate of collection as “abysmal,” particularly at the local and state levels, but insisted that improvements had been made at the federal level.¶ Since 2000, he said, the list of registered tax contributors has increased to 37 million from 9 million of the working population. Still, at the local level more than 90 percent of taxpayers, mostly small entrepreneurs, evade paying their fair share, and “that’s where our biggest challenge is,” he said. “More has to be done at the local level.”¶ Canabal also called on the United States and other governments to do “the right thing and take responsibility, help us identify” capital flight. “We have been demanding that for years, and we haven’t been successful.”¶ Officials at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City and at the U.S. State Department could not be reached for comment.¶ More than half of the money illicitly flowing out of Mexico ends up in U.S. banks, followed by tax havens in the Caribbean and Europe, according to GFI’s 81-page report, “Mexico: Illicit Financial Flows, Macroeconomic Imbalances, and the Underground Economy.” The report is scheduled to be released Monday in Washington and Mexico City.¶ The capital flight parallels economic crises in Mexico, with the 1995 economic downturn leading to a massive loss of money, increasing to 12.7 percent of GDP, up from 3.8 the previous year.¶ In the past five years, Mexico’s drug cartels have transformed themselves into powerful, sophisticated transnational criminal organizations. But the conservative analysis “does not include drug smuggling, human trafficking, and some forms of trade mispricing, data for which are not available,” the report says. If such data were available, “the figures would be substantially higher.”¶ Instead, the report looks at practices like tax evasion, including from personal income, corporate income and customs duties, said a GFI spokesman, Clark Gascoigne. Avoiding such duties through trade mispricing is the most common practice used to funnel illicit money abroad.¶ In 2009, Mexican tax evaders cost the economy an estimated $25.6 billion, ranking it 25th highest in the world. Such evasion forces the government to impose higher taxes on basic grocery staples such as tortillas.¶ Mexico has Latin America’s second-largest economy, and over the past two decades it has gained a reputation for sound fiscal and economic management, even amid global turmoil. But despite its achievements, the country has yet to reach its potential, economists and analysts say.¶ “What this report points to is Mexico’s weak institutions, the fundamental weakness of Mexican bureaucracies and administration, whether it’s the tax administration and their ability to audit, ability to regulate business, the ability to make sure they know what they’re doing,” said Shannon O’Neil, Douglas Dillon fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.¶ Over the past 20 years, “Mexico has made some big strides,” she added. “It’s transformed its economy, democracy, but it still faces daunting challenges of reforming the basic administration of the state to provide real regulations. … This is happening and will continue to happen because Mexico cannot regulate the underground economy.”¶ Douglas Farah, president of Alexandria, Va.-based IBI Consultants and a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, agreed.¶ “No country can afford to lose that much money, obviously,” he said. “Mexico has a problem of poverty, education, income distribution. This is one more proof of how difficult it is for Mexico to get control of its economy and the challenges it faces. Problems like tax evasion cripple a government, despite good intentions to be effective.”¶
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Corchado, 12 - Mexico bureau chief @ Dallas Morning News (Alfredo, “Exclusive: Mexico pays heavy price for tax evasion, report finds”, 29 January 2012, Dallas Morning News, http://www.dallasnews.com/news/nationworld/mexico/20120128-exclusive-mexico-pays-heavy-price-for-tax-evasion-report-finds.ece)//AE
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more than $872 billion has been lost to the Mexican economy over four decades to tax evasion The report says the overall loss through 41 years averages 5.2 percent of the country’s annual GDP This is a devastatingly large amount of money for any developing country to lose “$872 billion is gone, which could have been used to develop the Mexican economy, to invest in education, to build roads or to fight the drug cartels , the biggest share is money lost to tax evaders using myriad schemes to avoid contributing to the country’s coffers.¶ the growing volume of legitimate trade between Mexico and the U.S makes it extremely difficult for authorities on both sides of the border to detect the illicit outflows trade liberalization without strong regulatory oversight is probably responsible for larger illicit outflows through trade mispricing The capital flight parallels economic crises in Mexico Mexico has Latin America’s second-largest economy, and over the past two decades it has gained a reputation for sound fiscal and economic management despite its achievements, the country has yet to reach its potential, economists and analysts say Mexico has made some big strides It’s transformed its economy, democracy, but it still faces daunting challenges of reforming the basic administration of the state to provide real regulations No country can afford to lose that much money, Problems like tax evasion cripple a government
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Despite improved governance IFFs are crippling Mexico’s economy
| 5,921 | 63 | 1,433 | 926 | 8 | 230 | 0.008639 | 0.24838 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,144 |
The U.S. government frequently raises the issue of smuggling of bulk shipments of currency from the U.S. to Mexico as a major economic and security issue, one that demands greater effort by Mexican authorities to detect and deter.¶ However, as a report released this week by Global Financial Integrity reveals, bulk cash smuggling is not the only form of illicit financial transfer taking place in staggering volumes across the U.S. – Mexico border.¶ The report’s findings indicate that the Mexican economy lost $872 billion to illicit financial outflows between 1970 and 2010. These non-cash outflows from Mexico serve to feed Mexico’s underground economy, enabling the spoils of illicit activity to be stashed abroad. Notably, the vast majority of capital leaving Mexico, including illicit transfers, is destined for banks in the United States, and a significant increase in illicit outflows from Mexico was observed in the wake of the coming into force of NAFTA, suggesting even more strongly that the bulk of illicit outflows from Mexico is placed in U.S. accounts. As a result, there is a clear window of opportunity for U.S. policy initiatives to make this country less inviting to criminals and tax evaders from our Southern neighbor, which would benefit economic stability and national security in both the U.S. and Mexico.¶
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Lawton, 12 – Former Canadian policy analyst who worked on anti-money laundering initiatives (Christopher, “U.S. Should Expand Automatic Exchange Of Tax Information To Mexico”, January 31, 2012, Financial Transparency Coalition, http://www.financialtransparency.org/2012/01/31/u-s-should-expand-automatic-exchange-of-tax-information-to-mexico/)//AE
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The U.S. government frequently raises the issue of smuggling of bulk shipments of currency from the U.S. to Mexico as a major economic and security issue However a report released reveals that the Mexican economy lost $872 billion to illicit financial outflows between 1970 and 2010. These non-cash outflows from Mexico serve to feed Mexico’s underground economy, enabling the spoils of illicit activity to be stashed abroad. the vast majority of capital leaving Mexico, including illicit transfers, is destined for banks in the United States the bulk of illicit outflows from Mexico is placed in U.S. accounts there is a clear window of opportunity for U.S. policy initiatives to make this country less inviting to criminals and tax evaders from our Southern neighbor
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Vast majority of Mexican IFFs end up in U.S. banks
| 1,332 | 50 | 768 | 213 | 10 | 123 | 0.046948 | 0.577465 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,145 |
With the exception of 1982 - when Mexico defaulted on its foreign debt and a handful of giant New York banks worried they would lose billions of dollars in loans - few people abroad ever cared about a weak peso. But now it's different, experts say. This time, the world is keeping a close eye on Mexico's unfolding financial crisis for one simple reason: Mexico is a major international player. If its economy were to collapse, it would drag down a few other countries and thousands of foreign investors. If recovery is prolonged, the world economy will feel the slowdown. "It took a peso devaluation so that other countries could notice the key role that Mexico plays in today's global economy," said economist Victor Lopez Villafane of the Monterrey Institute of Technology. "I hate to say it, but if Mexico were to default on its debts, that would trigger an international financial collapse" not seen since the Great Depression, said Dr. Lopez, who has conducted comparative studies of the Mexican economy and the economies of some Asian and Latin American countries.
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Rangel, 95 - Fellow at the Monterrey Bureau (Enrique Rangel, ““Pressure on the Peso; Mexico’s Economic Crisis carries global implications”, Dallas Morning News, 11/28, Lexis)//JS
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Mexico is a major international player. If its economy were to collapse, it would drag down a few other countries and thousands of foreign investors countries notice the key role that Mexico plays in today's global economy but if Mexico were to default on its debts, that would trigger an international financial collapse"
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We isolate 2 impacts to Mexican economic instability:
| 1,071 | 53 | 322 | 181 | 8 | 53 | 0.044199 | 0.292818 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,146 |
Surveying the Greater Middle East, where chaos reigns from Egypt to Syria and where chances of war among any number of players are rising, you can hardly blame the typical American for wanting to wish it away. But the 43 percent of U.S. voters who think that America is "too involved" in the Middle East, according to a recent Rasmussen poll, or the 58 percent who think that we should "leave things alone" in the Islamic world have it backward. "Let me underscore the importance of the United States continuing to lead in the Middle East, North Africa and around the world," a departing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton put it aptly at recent congressional hearings. "When America is absent, especially from unstable environments, there are consequences. Extremism takes root, our interests suffer and our security at home is threatened." Indeed, the tumult across the Greater Middle East of late, which has emboldened America's state and non-state adversaries and worried our allies, shows what happens when the United States reduces its voice and footprint. We want to believe that, as President Obama likes to say "the tide of war is receding" but, beyond America's shores, the world hasn't received the memo. Quite the contrary, as the United States seeks a respite from the region's messiness, our reduced role is a big reason why dangers are mounting. In Syria, for instance, our reticence to work with our European and regional allies to establish a no-fly zone that would throttle Syria's air force has left a predictable vacuum, with Syria's neighbors predictably unable to mount a collective effort to more effectively pressure Bashar al-Assad or aid the rebels. By enabling al-Assad to hang on, U.S. reticence has lengthened the bloodbath through which al-Assad has now slaughtered an estimated 60,000 of his own people while giving jihadists more time to enter the playing field and position themselves to shape a post-Assad Syria in ways that we'll regret. In Iran, the regime continues to make progress in its nuclear pursuit, with no signs that the economic and financial sanctions that are clearing impairing the nation's economy are deterring its leaders. Meanwhile, with America's withdrawals from nearby Iraq and Afghanistan sending clear signals about our long-term commitment to the region, a dangerous Tehran seeks regional supremacy while Saudi Arabia and our other allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council struggle for ways to counteract its expansionism. In Egypt, the United States showers the Muslim Brotherhood-led government with economic and military aid, presumably to buttress regional stability by strengthening the regime and preventing a national collapse. But, Washington sends a disturbing signal to secular reformers in the region by staying largely mute as Cairo violates civil liberties and threatens to build a religious autocracy to replace its secular predecessor. At least twice before, the United States has seen the harmful consequences of its retreat on the world stage. After Versailles, our isolationism of the 1920s and '30s nourished not only the global economic warfare that fueled the Great Depression but also the European and Asian militarism that produced World War II. After Vietnam, an uncertain United States turned inward again, leaving the Soviet Union to stoke Third World revolution in Ethiopia, Angola, and Rhodesia before invading Afghanistan in late 1979. The Islamic Revolution topped a staunch U.S. ally in Iran, students stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran and seize our personnel, and America assumed the embarrassing posture of a paper tiger. That's true today has been true for decades. The world looks to America for leadership. The more dangerous is the region, the higher are the stakes when we decide whether to assume or avoid the role.
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Haas, 2/25/13 – Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council (Lawrence, “U.S. must maintain leadership role in world's dangerous areas, “http://www.centredaily.com/2013/02/25/3515265/lawrence-haas-us-must-maintain.html)
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Surveying the Middle East where chaos reigns from Egypt to Syria and where chances of war among any number of players are rising Let me underscore the importance of the U S continuing to lead around the world When America is absent from unstable environments, there are consequences. the tumult across the Middle East has emboldened America's adversaries and worried our allies shows what happens when the U S reduces its footprint our reduced role is a big reason why dangers are mounting. In Syria At least twice before, the U St has seen the harmful consequences of its retreat on the world stage. After Versailles our isolationism of the 1920s and '30s nourished not only the global economic warfare that fueled the Great Depression but also the European and Asian militarism that produced World War II. After Vietnam, an uncertain United States turned inward again, leaving the Soviet Union to stoke Third World revolution in Ethiopia, Angola, and Rhodesia before invading Afghanistan in late 1979 The world looks to America for leadership. the higher are the stakes when we decide whether to assume or avoid the role.
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Hegemonic decline causes global wars
| 3,813 | 36 | 1,123 | 610 | 5 | 188 | 0.008197 | 0.308197 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,147 |
There is one most obvious way that the U.S. could make its financial system a less attractive destination for Mexico’s illicit outflows – through the introduction of automatic tax information exchange agreement with Mexico on U.S. deposit accounts held by Mexican residents.¶ The Mexican government formally requested such an agreement with the Treasury Department in 2009, in order to help counter the laundering of Mexican criminal proceeds and tax evasion through U.S. banks, but it has yet to receive a reply. While Mexico and the U.S. do exchange tax information on a case-by-case basis in instances of suspected tax evasion, moving to automatic exchange would greatly simplify the exchange process, and would curtail unreported cross-border interest income by citizens of both countries.¶ Such a policy change would not be unprecedented. Though the U.S. does not currently collect information on interest payments made to most non-resident account holders, U.S. financial institutions are required to provide the IRS with such information regarding account holders that are residents of Canada. This information is in turn automatically supplied to the Canadian tax authority under an exchange agreement. The IRS benefits from the receipt of similar tax information in return.¶ In addition to the automatic exchange of tax information on non-resident account holders between Canada and the U.S., Mexico and Canada also have a similar agreement in place. This leaves the U.S. as the only NAFTA country that has not fully committed to the systematic, dynamic exchange of deposit account information with its major regional trading partners.¶ An agreement on automatic exchange of tax information on accounts could be readily implemented between the U.S. and Mexico, drawing on the experience in administering the existing agreements in North America, and in accordance with OECD standards. Given the likely volume of illicit funds being covertly transferred from Mexico to the U.S., such an agreement would go a long way towards interrupting the illicit outflows from Mexico, and would demonstrate the U.S. Government’s commitment to combating illicit financial activity on the Southern border in all its forms.
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Lawton, 12 – Former Canadian policy analyst who worked on anti-money laundering initiatives (Christopher, “U.S. Should Expand Automatic Exchange Of Tax Information To Mexico”, January 31, 2012, Financial Transparency Coalition, http://www.financialtransparency.org/2012/01/31/u-s-should-expand-automatic-exchange-of-tax-information-to-mexico/)//AE
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There is one obvious way that the U.S. could make its financial system a less attractive destination for Mexico’s illicit outflows – through the introduction of automatic tax information exchange agreement with Mexico on U.S. deposit accounts held by Mexican residents The Mexican government formally requested such an agreement with the Treasury Department in 2009, Such a policy change would not be unprecedented. Though the U.S. does not currently collect information on interest payments made to most non-resident account holders, U.S. financial institutions are required to provide the IRS with such information regarding account holders that are residents of Canada. The IRS benefits from the receipt of similar tax information in return.¶ In addition to the automatic exchange of tax information on non-resident account holders between Canada and the U.S., Mexico and Canada also have a similar agreement in place. This leaves the U.S. as the only NAFTA country that has not fully committed to the systematic, dynamic exchange of deposit account information with its major regional trading partners An agreement on automatic exchange of tax information on accounts could be readily implemented between the U.S. and Mexico, drawing on the experience in administering the existing agreements in North America Given the likely volume of illicit funds being covertly transferred from Mexico to the U.S., such an agreement would go a long way towards interrupting the illicit outflows from Mexico, and would demonstrate the U.S. Government’s commitment to combating illicit financial activity on the Southern border in all its forms.
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U.S.-Mexico agreement brings all NAFTA members on board with AEI and demonstrates commitment to systemic exchange with regional trading partners
| 2,215 | 144 | 1,635 | 339 | 20 | 250 | 0.058997 | 0.737463 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,148 |
Gilligan, 00 – Department of Psychiatry Harvard Medical School (James, Violence: Reflections on Our Deadliest Epidemic, 2000, p 195-96)
The 14 to 18 million deaths a year cause by structural violence compare with about 100,000 deaths per year from armed conflict. Comparing this frequency of deaths from structural violence to the frequency of those caused by major military and political violence, such as World War II (an estimated 49 million military and civilian deaths, including those caused by genocide--or about eight million per year, 1935-1945), the Indonesian massacre of 1965-1966 (perhaps 575,000 deaths), the Vietnam war (possibly two million, 1954-1973), and even a hypothetical nuclear exchange between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R (232 million), it was clear that even war cannot begin to compare with structural violence, which continues year after year. In other word, every fifteen years, on the average, as many people die because of relative poverty as would be killed in a nuclear war that caused 232 million deaths; and every single year, two to three times as many people die from poverty throughout the world as were killed by the Nazi genocide of the Jews over a six-year period. This is, in effect, the equivalent of an ongoing, unending, in fact accelerating, thermonuclear war, or genocide, perpetrated on the weak and poor every year of every decade, throughout the world.
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First is Poverty - Global poverty is the equivalent of a thermonuclear war every 15 years
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Gilligan, 00 The 14 to 18 million deaths a year cause by structural violence compare with about 100,000 deaths per year from armed conflict. Comparing this frequency of deaths from structural violence to the frequency of those caused by major military and political violence, such as World War II ( , it was clear that even war cannot begin to compare with structural violence, which continues year after year. In other word, every fifteen years, on the average, as many people die because of relative poverty as would be killed in a nuclear war that caused 232 million deaths; and every single year, two to three times as many people die from poverty throughout the world as were killed by the Nazi genocide of the Jews over a six-year period. This is, in effect, the equivalent of an ongoing, unending, in fact accelerating, thermonuclear war, or genocide, perpetrated on the weak and poor every year of every decade, throughout the world
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We isolate 2 two impacts to global IFFs:
| 1,404 | 40 | 945 | 224 | 8 | 161 | 0.035714 | 0.71875 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,149 |
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow. First, on the systemic level, Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson's (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin. 1981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Feaver, 1995). Alternatively, even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner. 1999). Separately, Pollins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major, medium and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level, Copeland's (1996, 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if the expectations of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases, as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states.4 Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write: The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour. Moreover, the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. (Blomberg & Hess, 2002. p. 89) Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg, Hess, & Weerapana, 2004), which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore, crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. "Diversionary theory" suggests that, when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline, sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. Wang (1996), DeRouen (1995). and Blomberg, Hess, and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. Gelpi (1997), Miller (1999), and Kisangani and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force. In summary, recent economic scholarship positively correlates economic integration with an increase in the frequency of economic crises, whereas political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic, dyadic and national levels.5 This implied connection between integration, crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.
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Royal, 10 – Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, (Jedediah, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives,” ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-14)
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economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power increasing the risk of miscalculation even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power 'future expectation of trade' is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviour of states if the expectations of future trade decline the likelihood for conflict increases, as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises could trigger decreased trade expectations others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Blomberg and Hess find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly during periods of economic downturn presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other Economic decline has been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism "Diversionary theory" suggests that, when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline, sitting governments have increased incentives to fabricate external military conflicts to create a 'rally around the flag' effect. the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states periods of weak economic performance in the United States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force political science scholarship links economic decline with external conflict at systemic, dyadic and national levels
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Second impact is Growth - Growth solves war - numerous studies prove
| 4,441 | 68 | 1,851 | 647 | 12 | 271 | 0.018547 | 0.418856 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,150 |
Mexicans are celebrating a victory over the drug mafia this week. The arrest of Miguel Angel Treviño Morales, the head of the Zeta drug cartel, is big news. Treviño, alias Z-40, made a name for himself as one of the most brutal gangsters in a country that has become inured to violence. But will Z-40's arrest put an end to Mexico's drug wars? There's reason to doubt it. Demand for drugs from the United States remains strong, and until that underlying structural cause is addressed, this lucrative trade will continue to thrive. Some experts point out that one of the biggest beneficiaries of Treviño's downfall is likely to be JoaquÃn Guzmán Loera ("El Chapo"), the head of the rival Sinaloa cartel, who can revel in the elimination of one of his most energetic competitors. Analysts put the value of the global drug trade at some $US350 billion a year, and that's probably a conservative estimate. And yet narcobusiness comprises only one relatively small slice of the much larger world of global criminality. According to the World Economic Forum: "The cross-border flow of global proceeds from criminal activities, corruption and tax evasion is estimated at over $US1 trillion, with illegal drugs and counterfeit goods each accounting for 8 per cent of world trade." Organised crime lurks behind many of the stories in the headlines today, though the connection rarely becomes explicit. Alexey Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who was just convicted on probably spurious charges of embezzlement, made a name for himself by targeting the corruption that is so deep-seated in today's Russia that it's often hard to see where the government leaves off and the mob begins. European Union law enforcement officials warned recently that mobsters are capitalising on the European financial crisis by taking advantage of black markets in goods and services. Meanwhile, the increasing prominence of the Internet in the global economy is fueling worries about the rising power of organized cybercriminals. Gangsters are cropping up in all sorts of odd places. Criminal syndicates are implicated in everything from the poaching of rare wildlife to the counterfeiting of drugs and manufactured goods. That growing range of activities attests to the criminals' skill at exploiting the possibilities offered by deepening global interconnectedness. Consider the opening of this story about a recent raid by Interpol: "More than 6000 people around the world were arrested in a two-month anti-counterfeiting sweep that netted tens of millions of dollars worth of fake shampoo in China, phony cigarettes in Turkey and bogus booze in Chile." The investigators discovered everything from a subterranean factory in Ukraine making counterfeit cigarettes to a workshop in Peru that puts false labels on motors from China. What we're seeing, though, is just the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Criminals, by definition, prefer to avoid the light of day, so the dimensions of the real mafia problem remain obscure. Was that Vatican official who was arrested in June on money-laundering charges merely trying to make himself and some well-connected friends a bit richer, or is he part of a much broader pattern of institutionalized corruption within the bank of the Holy See? Was that recent police raid in New Delhi that netted a huge haul of black-market weapons a victory over mobsters or terrorists? Did that witness who met an untimely end just before he was to testify in the Whitey Bulger case here in the United States really die of natural causes? Why did the Chinese harbor one of Taiwan's most prominent triad leaders for 17 years before handing him over to Taipei earlier this month? In most cases, we'll probably never know the whole story. But there are a few things that we can say with certainty. First, organised crime in cyberspace is becoming a core problem, one that's particularly hard to combat precisely because of its amorphousness. Indeed, there's considerable anecdotal evidence that hackers-for-hire are increasingly lending their services to governments and gangs. The opacity of the culprits shouldn't delude us about the scale of what's at stake. A report issued earlier this week by a global financial organization noted that half of the world's securities exchanges came under attack by hackers last year. That means that web-based criminals are potentially in a position to destabilise the global financial system, entirely aside from the untold losses from mushrooming cybercrime. Second, illicit financial flows are a big part of the problem. The biggest problem for large-scale criminals is banking their ill-gotten gains, and right now there are plenty of entirely legal lawyers, accountants and offshore tax havens that are happy to help. Let's put aside for the moment the theoretical arguments over the virtues and drawbacks of secrecy jurisdictions, and note simply that preserving the present system, which allows criminals to shift their profits almost effortlessly across the globe without scrutiny, will lead to disaster if allowed to continue unchecked. One recent report co-published by Global Financial Integrity and the African Development Bank claims that Africa alone lost up to $1.4 trillion to illicit financial flows. Surely the continuing existence of a system that allows for the existence of a "shadow financial system" on this scale is not good for anyone -- countries developed and developing alike. Third, powerful global crime syndicates are the enemy of good government. Democracy can hardly flourish when politicians meld with the shadowy forces of the mafia. It's precisely this understanding that has spurred the recent wave of protests in Bulgaria, where demonstrators took to the streets after a thuggish young tycoon was appointed as the government's top security official. Such concerns are by no means restricted to Eastern Europe, though. The wave of recent protests in places from Turkey to Brazil shows citizens are increasingly worried about official malfeasance and the lack of transparency that allows it. They're right to worry.
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Caryl, 7/24/13 - Senior fellow at the Legatum Institute in London and a Contributing Editor at Foreign Policy Magazine (Christian, “What a tangled web global criminality weaves,” Australian Financial Review, LexisNexis)//YS
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increasing prominence of the Internet in the global economy is fueling worries about the rising power of organized cybercriminal What we're seeing is just the proverbial tip of the iceberg. the dimensions of the real mafia problem remain obscure. that Vatican official who was arrested in June on money-laundering charges part of a much broader pattern of institutionalized corruption within the bank of the Holy See A report issued earlier this week by a global financial organization noted that half of the world's securities exchanges came under attack by hackers last year. That means that web-based criminals are potentially in a position to destabilise the global financial system illicit financial flows are a big part of the problem. The biggest problem for large-scale criminals is banking their ill-gotten gains, and right now there are plenty of entirely legal lawyers, accountants and offshore tax havens that are happy to help. preserving the present system, which allows criminals to shift their profits almost effortlessly across the globe without scrutiny, will lead to disaster if allowed to continue unchecked
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IFFs facilitate and preserve organized cyberterrorist networks – disaster is imminent without intervention
| 6,095 | 106 | 1,127 | 969 | 13 | 176 | 0.013416 | 0.181631 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,151 |
What about mitigation, i.e. reversing the trend of increasing CO2 and other greehouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere? Estimates vary even more here: the UNFCCC estimates US$ 52.4 billion, while the World Bank says US$ 140-175 billion -- with cost of financing even higher if that money has to be borrowed and then repaid (financing cost is estimated anywhere between US$ 265-565 billion), hence the figure of US$ 400 billion to bring the level of CO2 in the climate down to a safer level of 450 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 in the climate.
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Tax Justice Network, ’09 (Stop Illicit Capital Flows to Tackle the Climate Crisis,” December 11, http://taxjustice.blogspot.com/2009/12/stop-illicit-capital-fligh-to-solve.html)//SEP
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What about mitigation, i.e. reversing the trend of increasing CO2 and other greehouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere Estimates vary even more here: the UNFCCC estimates US$ 52.4 billion, while the World Bank says US$ 140-175 billion
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Curbing IFFs is key to raising domestic climate change financing – multilateral AEI solves
| 548 | 90 | 239 | 96 | 14 | 38 | 0.145833 | 0.395833 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,152 |
As horrifying as the scenario of human extinction by sudden, fast-burning nuclear fire may seem, the one consolation is that this future can be avoided within a relatively short period of time if responsible world leaders change Cold War thinking to move away from aggressive wars over natural resources and towards the eventual dismantlement of most if not all nuclear weapons. On the other hand, another scenario of human extinction by fire is one that may not so easily be reversed within a short period of time because it is not a fast-burning fire; rather, a slow burning fire is gradually heating up the planet as industrial civilization progresses and develops globally. This gradual process and course is long-lasting; thus it cannot easily be changed, even if responsible world leaders change their thinking about ‘‘progress’’ and industrial development based on the burning of fossil fuels. The way that global warming will impact humanity in the future has often been depicted through the analogy of the proverbial frog in a pot of water who does not realize that the temperature of the water is gradually rising. Instead of trying to escape, the frog tries to adjust to the gradual temperature change; finally, the heat of the water sneaks up on it until it is debilitated. Though it finally realizes its predicament and attempts to escape, it is too late; its feeble attempt is to no avail— and the frog dies. Whether this fable can actually be applied to frogs in heated water or not is irrelevant; it still serves as a comparable scenario of how the slow burning fire of global warming may eventually lead to a runaway condition and take humanity by surprise. Unfortunately, by the time the politicians finally all agree with the scientific consensus that global warming is indeed human caused, its development could be too advanced to arrest; the poor frog has become too weak and enfeebled to get himself out of hot water. The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the WorldMeteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme to ‘‘assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of humaninduced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.’’[16]. Since then, it has given assessments and reports every six or seven years. Thus far, it has given four assessments.13 With all prior assessments came attacks fromsome parts of the scientific community, especially by industry scientists, to attempt to prove that the theory had no basis in planetary history and present-day reality; nevertheless, as more and more research continually provided concrete and empirical evidence to confirm the global warming hypothesis, that it is indeed human-caused, mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels, the scientific consensus grew stronger that human induced global warming is verifiable. As a matter of fact, according to Bill McKibben [17], 12 years of ‘‘impressive scientific research’’ strongly confirms the 1995 report ‘‘that humans had grown so large in numbers and especially in appetite for energy that they were now damaging the most basic of the earth’s systems—the balance between incoming and outgoing solar energy’’; ‘‘. . . their findings have essentially been complementary to the 1995 report – a constant strengthening of the simple basic truth that humans were burning too much fossil fuel.’’ [17]. Indeed, 12 years later, the 2007 report not only confirms global warming, with a stronger scientific consensus that the slow burn is ‘‘very likely’’ human caused, but it also finds that the ‘‘amount of carbon in the atmosphere is now increasing at a faster rate even than before’’ and the temperature increases would be ‘‘considerably higher than they have been so far were it not for the blanket of soot and other pollution that is temporarily helping to cool the planet.’’ [17]. Furthermore, almost ‘‘everything frozen on earth is melting. Heavy rainfalls are becoming more common since the air is warmer and therefore holds more water than cold air, and ‘cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent.’’ [17]. Unless drastic action is taken soon, the average global temperature is predicted to rise about 5 degrees this century, but it could rise as much as 8 degrees. As has already been evidenced in recent years, the rise in global temperature is melting the Arctic sheets. This runaway polar melting will inflict great damage upon coastal areas, which could be much greater than what has been previously forecasted. However, what is missing in the IPCC report, as dire as it may seem, is sufficient emphasis on the less likely but still plausible worst case scenarios, which could prove to have the most devastating, catastrophic consequences for the long-term future of human civilization. In other words, the IPCC report places too much emphasis on a linear progression that does not take sufficient account of the dynamics of systems theory, which leads to a fundamentally different premise regarding the relationship between industrial civilization and nature.
|
Morgan, 09 – Professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (Dennis Ray, “World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and the Possible Extinction of the Human Race”, 2009)//Beddow
|
As horrifying as the scenario of human extinction by sudden, fast-burning nuclear fire may seem, the one consolation is that this future can be avoided within a relatively short period of time if responsible world leaders change Cold War thinking to move away from aggressive wars over natural resources and towards the eventual dismantlement of most if not all nuclear weapons. On the other hand, another scenario of human extinction by fire is one that may not so easily be reversed within a short period of time because it is not a fast-burning fire the slow burning fire of global warming may eventually lead to a runaway condition and take humanity by surprise. Unfortunately, by the time the politicians finally all agree with the scientific consensus that global warming is indeed human caused, its development could be too advanced to arrest research continually provided concrete and empirical evidence to confirm the global warming hypothesis, that it is indeed human-caused, mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels, the scientific consensus grew stronger that human induced global warming is verifiable. the ‘‘amount of carbon in the atmosphere is now increasing at a faster rate even than before’’ and the temperature increases would be ‘‘considerably higher than they have been so far everything frozen on earth is melting Unless drastic action is taken soon, the average global temperature is predicted to rise about 5 degrees this century, but it could rise as much as 8 degrees. As has already been evidenced in recent years, the rise in global temperature is melting the Arctic sheets. This runaway polar melting will inflict great damage upon coastal areas, which could be much greater than what has been previously forecasted
|
Action now averts extinction
| 5,307 | 28 | 1,746 | 852 | 4 | 284 | 0.004695 | 0.333333 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,153 |
The Russia report’s lead researchers, Dev Kar and Sarah Freitas, both economists, said they believe a link exists between the state of overall governance in Russia and the volume of illicit financial flows into and out of the country.
|
Stratrisks, 13 (“Booming Black Market, Illicit Finance Flow in and out of Russia in Post-Soviet Era,” February, 13, 2013, http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/10798)
|
Russia report’s lead researchers, Dev Kar and Sarah Freitas, both economists, said they believe a link exists between the state of overall governance in Russia and the volume of illicit financial flows into and out of the country
|
Russian IFFs are directly linked to government deterioration – including the defense sector
| 234 | 91 | 229 | 39 | 13 | 38 | 0.333333 | 0.974359 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,154 |
Russian strategic nuclear forces remain the only current threat to the national existence of the United States. Although the risk of deliberate attack from Russia has sharply fallen since the end of the Cold War, the risk of an accidental or unauthorized use of Russian nuclear forces has arguably risen. For example, Russia’s early-warning system has severely deteriorated, as has the country’s ability to keep its mobile (and thus survivable) nuclear forces deployed. There are additional concerns about the state of Russia’s command-and-control system and the rise of separatist violence. None of the nuclear arms control treaties after the Cold War have dealt with the issue of accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons. Instead, these treaties have concentrated on reducing the total number of nuclear warheads each side wields. While these reductions are extremely important for improving the overall U.S.-Russian relationship, they do little to ease the risks of an accidental or unauthorized nuclear launch. This is because those risks stem from the nuclear postures and underlying nuclear doctrines of each nation, which remain firmly rooted in the hostile relationship forged during the Cold War.
|
Mosher, 03 – Senior Policy Analyst in Nuclear Weapons, RAND (David, “Excessive Force”, RAND Corporation, Fall, http://www.rand.org/pubs/periodicals/rand-review/issues/fall2003/force.html, Deech)
|
Russian strategic nuclear forces remain the only threat to the existence of the U S the risk of an accidental or unauthorized use of Russian nuclear forces has risen Russia’s early-warning system has deteriorated, as has the country’s ability to keep its survivable) nuclear forces deployed. There are concerns about Russia’s command-and-control system reductions do little to ease the risks of an accidental or unauthorized nuclear launch
|
Russia economic decline leads to accidental nuclear use
| 1,214 | 55 | 439 | 186 | 8 | 67 | 0.043011 | 0.360215 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,155 |
Hair-trigger alert means this: The missiles carrying those warheads are armed and fueled at all times. Two thousand or so of these warheads are on the intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) targeted by Russia at the United States; 1,800 are on the ICBMs targeted by the United States at Russia; and approximately 1,000 are on the submarine-based missiles targeted by the two nations at each other. These missiles would launch on receipt of three computer-delivered messages. Launch crews--on duty every second of every day--are under orders to send the messages on receipt of a single computer-delivered command. In no more than two minutes, if all went according to plan, Russia or the United States could launch missiles at predetermined targets: Washington or New York; Moscow or St. Petersburg. The early-warning systems on which the launch crews rely would detect the other side's missiles within tens of seconds, causing the intended--or accidental--enemy to mount retaliatory strikes. "Within a half-hour, there could be a nuclear war that would extinguish all of us," explains Bruce Blair. "It would be, basically, a nuclear war by checklist, by rote."
|
Mintz, 01 (Morton, Former Chair – Fund for Investigative Journalism and Reporter – Washington Post, “Two Minutes to Launch”, The American Prospect, http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=two_minutes_to_launch)
|
In two minutes Russia or the U S could launch missiles at predetermined targets early-warning systems on which the launch crews rely would detect the other side's missiles within tens of seconds, causing the accidental--enemy to mount retaliatory strikes. "Within a half-hour, there could be a nuclear war that would extinguish all of us
|
Accidental launch causes extinction
| 1,165 | 35 | 337 | 183 | 4 | 54 | 0.021858 | 0.295082 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,156 |
But the Arab Spring is, in many ways, a mirage. Several nations in the region may eventually make the transition to democracy - this is hardly assured - but in reality, democracy is faltering throughout the developing world, from Asia to Latin America, from Africa to the former Soviet states. In its annual survey, the monitoring group Freedom House, which uses a range of data to assess social, political and economic freedoms, found that global freedom plummeted for the fifth year in a row in 2010, the longest continuous decline in nearly 40 years. In fact, there are now fewer elected democracies than there were in 1995. A mountain of other evidence supported Freedom House's findings. One of the other most comprehensive studies of global democracy, compiled by Germany's Bertelsmann Foundation, uses data examining the ability of democracies to function, manage government and uphold freedoms to produce what it calls the Transformation Index. The most recent index found "the overall quality of democracy has eroded [throughout the developing world] ... the key components of a functioning democracy, such as political participation and civil liberties, have suffered qualitative erosion ... these developments threaten to hollow out the quality and substance of governance". The index concluded that the number of "highly defective democracies" - democracies with institutions, elections and political culture so flawed that they no longer qualified as real democracies - had roughly doubled between 2006 and 2010. The Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy only further confirmed these findings. The unit analyses democracy using categories for electoral process, pluralism, political participation, political culture, functioning of government and civil liberties. It found that democracy was in retreat around the globe. "In all regions, the average democracy score for 2010 is lower than in 2008," it reported. In 91 of 167 countries it studied, the democracy score had deteriorated in that time period and in many others it had only remained stagnant. Of the 79 nations that it assessed as having some significant democratic qualities, only 26 made the grade as what the EIU calls "full democracies", while the other 53 were ranked only as "flawed democracies" because of serious deficiencies in many of the areas it assessed. In Latin America, Africa, Asia and even most of Africa, coups, which had been a frequent means of changing governments during the Cold War, had become nearly extinct by the early 2000s. But between 2006 and 2010, the military grabbed power in Mauritania, Niger, Guinea-Bissau, Bangladesh, Fiji and Madagascar, among others. In many other developing nations, such as Mexico, Pakistan and the Philippines, the military managed to restore its power as the central actor in political life, dominating the civilian governments that clung to power only through the support of the armed forces. "It's almost like we've gone back to the [Ferdinand] Marcos era," prominent Filipino rights activist and lawyer Harry Roque Jr said, as he waited in his office for the security forces to come and interrogate him. "There's the same type of fear, the same abuses, the same attitude by the military that their actions will never face consequences." Support for democracy has become so tepid in parts of the developing world that many of these coups were cheered: in Niger last year, thousands celebrated the military takeover in Niamey, the capital, in part because the overthrown leader had been destroying the country's democratic institutions. Overall, an analysis of military coups in developing nations over the past 20 years, conducted by David Silverman, my Council on Foreign Relations research associate, found that in nearly 50 per cent of cases drawn from Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East, middle-class men and women either agitated in advance for the coup, or, in polls or prominent media coverage afterwards, expressed their support for the army takeover. Opinion polls also reveal that the quality of democracy is declining, but also that how the public views democracy is deteriorating as well. The Barometer Series of polls uses questionnaires to ask people in a range of nations about their views on democracy. The survey of the African continent has found declining levels of support for democracy in many countries. Meanwhile, in Russia, where hope for democracy was high in the early 1990s, today the New Europe Barometer shows that half of Russians believe it is acceptable to stop having elections if this decision strengthens the country. Elsewhere, in Ecuador, Guatemala, Paraguay, Colombia, Peru, Honduras and Nicaragua, either a minority or only a tiny majority of people think democracy is preferable to any other type of government. Polls and studies of South Asia have revealed similar dissatisfaction. In Pakistan, roughly 60 per cent of respondents in a comprehensive regional survey said the country should be ruled by the army. Even in East Asia, one of the most economically vibrant regions of the world, polls reveal the same rising dissatisfaction with democracy. In fact, several countries in the region have developed what Yu-tzung Chang, Yunhan Zhu and Chong-min Park, who studied data from the regular Asian Barometer surveys, have termed "authoritarian nostalgia".
|
Kurlantzick, 11 - Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. (Joshua, “Democracy in steep decline around the world,” The National, July 15, 2011, http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/democracy-in-steep-decline-around-the-world?pageCount=0)
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democracy is faltering throughout the developing world, from Asia to Latin America, from Africa to the former Soviet states In its annual survey Freedom House found that global freedom plummeted for the fifth year in a row in 2010, the longest continuous decline in nearly 40 years there are now fewer elected democracies than there were in 1995 One of the most comprehensive studies by Bertelsmann Foundation found "the overall quality of democracy has eroded these developments threaten to hollow out the quality and substance of governance The index concluded the number of "highly defective democracies" had doubled between 2006 and 2010 The Economist Intelligence Unit's Index of Democracy confirmed these findings In 91 of 167 countries it studied, the democracy score had deteriorated But between 2006 and 2010, the military grabbed power in Mauritania, Niger, Guinea-Bissau, Bangladesh, Fiji and Madagascar, among others In many developing nations such as Mexico, Pakistan and the Philippines, the military managed to restore its power the quality of democracy is declining, but also that how the public views democracy is deteriorating as well
|
Democracy is faltering globally – both in terms of overall quality and public support
| 5,358 | 86 | 1,152 | 844 | 14 | 179 | 0.016588 | 0.212085 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,157 |
Bueno de Mequita, Morrow, Siverson, and Smith are among the few who have sought to overcome the conceptual dilemmas noted above. Specifically they have provided insights on the link between institutions and foreign policy choices with reference to international disputes and conflicts. They find that democratic leaders, when faced with a choice, are more likely to shift greater resources to war efforts than leaders of the autocratic governments because political survival of the elected democratic regime demands successful policy performance, especially as the winning coalition grows. Thus, democratic regimes tend to have a military edge over autocratic regimes in war because of the extra efforts required. Also, "democratic leaders only choose to fight when they are confident of victory. Otherwise they prefer to negotiate." (22) Bueno de Mequita and his colleagues conclude, Democrats make relatively unattractive targets because domestic reselection pressures cause leaders to mobilize resources for the war effort. This makes it harder for other states to target them for aggression. In addition to trying harder than autocrats, democrats are more selective in their choice of targets. Defeat typically leads to domestic replacement for democrats, so they only initiate war when they expect to win. These two factors lead to the interaction between polities that is often termed the democratic peace. Autocrats need a slight expected advantage over other autocratic adversaries in devoting additional resources to the war effort. In order to initiate war, democrats need overwhelming odds of victory, but that does not mean they are passive. Because democrats use their resources for the war effort rather than reserve them to reward backers, they are generally able, given their selection criteria for fighting, to overwhelm autocracies, which results in short and relatively less costly wars. Yet, democracies find it hard to overwhelm other democracies because they also try hard. In general, democracies make unattractive targets, particularly for other democracies. Hence, democratic states rarely attack one another. (23)
|
Tarzi, 07 - Professor of Economic Affairs at Bradley, (Shah, Democratic Peace, Illiberal Democracy and Conflict Behavior, International Journal on World Peace, Vol. 24)
|
democratic leaders only choose to fight when they are confident of victory. Otherwise they prefer to negotiate Democrats make relatively unattractive targets because domestic reselection pressures cause leaders to mobilize resources for the war effort. This makes it harder for other states to target them for aggression. In addition to trying harder than autocrats, democrats are more selective in their choice of targets. Defeat typically leads to domestic replacement for democrats, so they only initiate war when they expect to win Autocrats need a slight expected advantage over other autocratic adversaries in devoting additional resources to the war effort. In order to initiate war, democrats need overwhelming odds of victory democracies find it hard to overwhelm other democracies because they also try hard. In general, democracies make unattractive targets, particularly for other democracies. Hence, democratic states rarely attack one another
|
Democracy solves great power wars – opt to negotiate with rather than fight other democracies
| 2,139 | 94 | 956 | 319 | 15 | 140 | 0.047022 | 0.438871 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,158 |
Although U.S. seemed the sole dominant power after the collapse of Soviet Union, U.S. envisaged that some areas of influence 2 would have a huge potential to challenge its politic and economic hegemony in the world, which is leading towards a tripolar economic structure. 3 Thus, “Fortress North America” must be erected to challenge “Fortress Europe”. Both must be prepared to repel onslaught of Asian products. 4 At that time the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) came into effect with the initiatives of U.S. The NAFTA includes Canada, the United States, and Mexico, with a total (as of 2000) combined population of 410 million inhabitants, and combined GDP of over $11 billion U.S. 5 It created the world’s largest regional freetrade zone, directly challenging the growing primacy of the European Community and the Japan-East Asia bloc 6 and aiming to maintain its superpower position. In contrast to the EU, the NAFTA represents a less ambitious effort 7 to establish a common continental market for goods and services, and common protections for private investors and businesses, with little attention or interest devoted to developing a continental political or institutional dimension. The important structural and institutional differences among the NAFTA partners are the reasons behind that the NAFTA has limited its scope to the deregulation of trade and investment flows within the NAFTA zone, rather than attempting a deeper, European-style political and regulatory harmonization. The model of the world economy assumes cut-throat trade competition between the three regional blocks. To survive in this competition each block should have a leading nation, which provides the capital and managerial skills, and a group of less developed nations, which supply the cheap labor and mineral resources takes the role of a regulatory body and dominates the NAFTA economically and politically. So, U.S. as the dominant nation 8 intended to hook up with Mexico to obtain low-cost labor and oil. Canada’s role is primarily “an energy and resource hinterland”. 9 For U.S., NAFTA will mean a chance to regain competitive positions eroded by Japanese and European rivals. 10 For the U.S. the implementation of a North American free trade zone represented an important but hardly epochal development, one which mostly served to reinforce its already-existing economic and strategic dominance on the continent and even in the world. Trade patterns within the NAFTA conform largely to a “hub-and-spoke” structure 11 , with the U.S. located at both the geographical and the economic center of the continent. 12 The United States adopted economic regionalism toward the end of the twentieth century. NAFTA of the early 1990s were crafted to apply the liberal policies and free market principles closer to U.S policies. The United States did not impose NAFTA on North America but it clearly had an inordinate and even hegemonic influence on North America’s adherence to the disciplines and principles favored by the United States. 13 Free trade, reciprocity, national treatment of investment, domestic trade policy, dispute settlement, labor and environment protection, and liberalization of services as well as agriculture were NAFTA tenets. 14 NAFTA is a U.S.-led RIA, a symbolic and genuine innovation that more formally organized North America with the United States at its geo-economic hub. The NAFTA would draw both neighbors more closely into the U.S. sphere of influence, reducing the perceived geopolitical risk to U.S. interests that had been posed by occasional outbreaks of nationalist sentiment in Mexico and Canada. 15 Mexico’s place in North America raises issues about the tradeoffs involved in integrating more closely developed and developing economies. This is what made NAFTA so consequential for the possibility of linking the global North and the global South in the Americas. The NAFTA is contributing to the broad US goal of promoting economic growth, political stability, and progress toward democracy in Mexico. 16 The NAFTA’s provisions should complement and augment the extensive economic reforms already under way in Mexico and provide an insurance policy against any reversion to past protectionist and interventionist policies that impeded US trade with Mexico. 17 As a result, a prosperous Mexico would become a thriving market for U.S. exports. 18 NAFTA reinforces ongoing Mexican trade and investment reforms 19 , which along with reforms in Mexican laws relating to intellectual property rights have generated substantial new opportunities for U.S. firms. The United States has long championed a Pan American vision of a liberal, democratic, capitalist hemisphere based on precepts long held to be sacrosanct among its public 20 and private leaders. Integrating North and South America or at least bringing them closer together meant allowing for a substantial role in Latin America for U.S. power and policy. For the United States, organizing a RIA in North America was a strategy more than an ultimate goal. Befitting its global status, it had a more ambitious agenda for the world economy beyond its own neighborhood. The United States pursued two tracks in economic regionalism during the waning years of the twentieth century. One was a North American or continental track. The second track is Pan American. As a unipolar region, North America had unique advantages; its hegemonic structure made NAFTA an obvious first step for a free trade area. After NAFTA, trade dependence and other economic relations are greater than before. The steep concessions that Mexico had to make to gain admittance to this exclusive North American club were palatable to most Mexicans because the two highly interdependent economies made structure and policy more congruent. 21 The same is not true of the hemisphere in general. 22 During the mid-1990s, the United States entertained the view that NAFTA would be the vehicle for the more ambitious project of building a RIA for the entire hemisphere. It did not quite work out that way. The idea was to widen or broaden NAFTA by including new members through the accession clause 23 , but NAFTA did not expand. 24 NAFTA was bereft of support as the vehicle for creating a FTAA 25 . While structural power is important, so too are two other elements of power: the soft power of economic liberalism and the use of leadership to affect outcomes. U.S. influence depends partially upon an inter-American convergence around liberal market ideas and trade policy preferences of the United States. In other words, if Latin American leaders agree with the United States on the principles and disciplines it advocates in the FTAA process, U.S. dominance is more assured. The ultimate goal of U.S. is that the nations will converge around political and economic liberalization. 26 Especially, in the wake of the terrorist acts of September 11, Iraq War and thus increasing sociotropic threat 27 and patriotism in different countries, the American foreign policy in NAFTA become more important in preserving the support of its neighbors and indirectly of the entire world. U.S. should change the context of NAFTA from mere a free trade area to a union with a Social Charter characteristic. NAFTA should better use a regime of fair and peaceful competition, through positive integration and institution building strategies. 28 U.S should emphasize the social quality aspects of NAFTA and help its NAFTA partners improve their economic as well as socio-political conditions to gain new allies at the same level in the world arena. The improvement of the rule of law and democracy should not be left in the hands of U.S., but they should be realized by institutionalization 29 taking the E.U as a model. 30 Taking all these arguments into consideration, the NAFTA’ s success will not only shape North America’s faith, but also the future of the U.S influence on world politics as a superpower. NAFTA is used by U.S. to some extent as a model 31 and a vehicle to maintain its superpower role throughout the world. U.S. is given the opportunity to compete with the European Union and China, the most potential emerging power, by exploiting Mexico’s cheap labor force and Canada’s natural resources. The strategic policies and actions will determine its NAFTA partners’ position against U.S. They will either lead to stronger strategic alliances between these countries, even including other Latin American counties, which will enhance the U.S. dominance or lead to an opposition in Mexico and Canada, which could mean the loss of its superpower role. NAFTA’s future will play an important role; the success can help U.S. sustain its superpower role, but failure, such faced by U.S. in the FTAA, can lead to a loss of this power, thus being a follower of E.U. in the world economy and politics it would be sufficient for U.S.
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Agrasoy, 04 - Bachelor of Arts degree in International Trade and a Bachelor of Science degree in Management Information Systems from Bogazici University in Istanbul, Turkey, where he specialized in international trade and investment, Master of Arts in Economics from McGill University in Montreal, ROI Research Analyst Director of Operations, Public Sector, overseeing worldwide public sector operations at ROI (Emre, “NAFTA: as a Means of an U.S. Hegemony Creation in the Region?” May 23 2004, http://emreagrasoy.awardspace.com/nafta.pdf)
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U.S. seemed the sole dominant power after the collapse some areas of influence 2 would have a huge potential to challenge its politic and economic hegemon NAFTA came into effect with the initiatives of U.S. It created the world’s largest regional freetrade zone directly challenging the growing primacy of the European Community and the Japan-East Asia bloc 6 and aiming to maintain its superpower position. S. as the dominant nation 8 intended to hook up with Mexico to obtain low-cost labor and oil. For U.S., NAFTA will mean a chance to regain competitive positions eroded by Japanese and European rivals. 10 implementation North American free trade zone served to reinforce its already-existing economic and strategic dominance on the continent and even in the world Trade patterns within the NAFTA conform largely to a “hub-and-spoke” structure 11 , with the U.S. located at both the geographical and the economic center of the continent. NAFTA were crafted to apply the liberal policies and free market principles closer to U.S policies The United States had an inordinate and even hegemonic influence on North America’s adherence to the disciplines and principles favored by the United States. NAFTA is U.S.-led symbolic and genuine innovation that more formally organized North America with the United States at its geo-economic hub NAFTA would draw both neighbors more closely into the U.S. sphere of influenc , reducing the perceived geopolitical risk to U.S. interests that had been posed by occasional outbreaks of nationalist sentiment in Mexico and Canada. NAFTA consequential for the possibility of linking the global North and the global South in the Americas NAFTA is contributing to the broad US goal of promoting economic growth, political stability, and progress toward democracy in Mexico. and provide an insurance against protectionist and interventionist policies NAFTA reinforces investment reforms generated substantial new opportunities for U.S. firms. a Pan American vision of a liberal, democratic, capitalist hemisphere based on precepts long held to be sacrosanct among its pu Integrating North and South America or at least bringing them closer together meant allowing for a substantial role in Latin America for U.S. power and policy. As a unipolar region, North America had unique advantages; its hegemonic structure made NAFTA an obvious first step for a free trade area NAFTA would be the vehicle for the more ambitious project of building the entire hemisphere . U.S. influence depends upon an inter-American convergence around liberal market ideas and trade policy preferences of the United States. if Latin American leaders agree with the United States on the principles and disciplines it advocates in the FTAA process, U.S. dominance is more assured. The ultimate goal of U.S. is that the nations will converge around political and economic liberalization. American foreign policy in NAFTA become more important in preserving the support of its neighbors and indirectly of the entire world NAFTA improve socio-political conditions to gain new allies at the same level in the world arena NAFTA’ success will shape the future of the U.S influence on world politics as a superpower NAFTA is used by U.S. to some extent as a model 31 and a vehicle to maintain its superpower role throughout the world strategic alliances will enhance the U.S. dominance NAFTA’s future will play an important role; the success can help U.S. sustain its superpower role, but failure can lead to a loss of this power
|
NAFTA is key to heg and free trade – hemispheric integration and liberal institutions
| 8,883 | 85 | 3,537 | 1,424 | 14 | 561 | 0.009831 | 0.393961 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,159 |
A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United States stays the world's number one power‑the diplomatic, economic and military leader. Those arguing against primacy claim that the United States should retrench, either because the United States lacks the power to maintain its primacy and should withdraw from its global commitments, or because the maintenance of primacy will lead the United States into the trap of "imperial overstretch." In the previous issue of The National Interest, Christopher Layne warned of these dangers of primacy and called for retrenchment.1 Those arguing for a grand strategy of retrenchment are a diverse lot. They include isolationists, who want no foreign military commitments; selective engagers, who want U.S. military commitments to centers of economic might; and offshore balancers, who want a modified form of selective engagement that would have the United States abandon its landpower presence abroad in favor of relying on airpower and seapower to defend its interests. But retrenchment, in any of its guises, must be avoided. If the United States adopted such a strategy, it would be a profound strategic mistake that would lead to far greater instability and war in the world, imperil American security and deny the United States and its allies the benefits of primacy. There are two critical issues in any discussion of America's grand strategy: Can America remain the dominant state? Should it strive to do this? America can remain dominant due to its prodigious military, economic and soft power capabilities. The totality of that equation of power answers the first issue. The United States has overwhelming military capabilities and wealth in comparison to other states or likely potential alliances. Barring some disaster or tremendous folly, that will remain the case for the foreseeable future. With few exceptions, even those who advocate retrenchment acknowledge this. So the debate revolves around the desirability of maintaining American primacy. Proponents of retrenchment focus a great deal on the costs of U.S. action but they fall to realize what is good about American primacy. The price and risks of primacy are reported in newspapers every day; the benefits that stem from it are not. A GRAND strategy of ensuring American primacy takes as its starting point the protection of the U.S. homeland and American global interests. These interests include ensuring that critical resources like oil flow around the world, that the global trade and monetary regimes flourish and that Washington's worldwide network of allies is reassured and protected. Allies are a great asset to the United States, in part because they shoulder some of its burdens. Thus, it is no surprise to see NATO in Afghanistan or the Australians in East Timor. In contrast, a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. Indeed, retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. Washington cannot call a "time out", and it cannot hide from threats. Whether they are terrorists, rogue states or rising powers, history shows that threats must be confronted. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home", thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half‑pledges to defend its interests and allies, does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom, predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States, then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from such threats. And when enemies must be confronted, a strategy based on primacy focuses on engaging enemies overseas, away from .American soil. Indeed, a key tenet of the Bush Doctrine is to attack terrorists far from America's shores and not to wait while they use bases in other countries to plan and train for attacks against the United States itself. This requires a physical, on‑the‑ground presence that cannot be achieved by offshore balancing. Indeed, as Barry Posen has noted, U.S. primacy is secured because America, at present, commands the "global common"‑‑the oceans, the world's airspace and outer space‑allowing the United States to project its power far from its borders, while denying those common avenues to its enemies. As a consequence, the costs of power projection for the United States and its allies are reduced, and the robustness of the United States' conventional and strategic deterrent capabilities is increased.' This is not an advantage that should be relinquished lightly. A remarkable fact about international politics today‑-in a world where American primacy is clearly and unambiguously on display--is that countries want to align themselves with the United States. Of course, this is not out of any sense of altruism, in most cases, but because doing so allows them to use the power of the United States for their own purposes, their own protection, or to gain greater influence. Of 192 countries, 84 are allied with America‑-their security is tied to the United States through treaties and other informal arrangements‑and they include almost all of the major economic and military powers. That is a ratio of almost 17 to one (85 to five), and a big change from the Cold War when the ratio was about 1.8 to one of states aligned with the United States versus the Soviet Union. Never before in its history has this country, or any country, had so many allies. U.S. primacy‑-and the bandwagoning effect‑has also given us extensive influence in international politics, allowing the United States to shape the behavior of states and international institutions. Such influence comes in many forms, one of which is America's ability to create coalitions of like‑minded states to free Kosovo, stabilize Afghanistan, invade Iraq or to stop proliferation through the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). Doing so allows the United States to operate with allies outside of the where it can be stymied by opponents. American‑led wars in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq stand in contrast to the UN's inability to save the people of Darfur or even to conduct any military campaign to realize the goals of its charter. The quiet effectiveness of the PSI in dismantling Libya's WMD programs and unraveling the A. Q. Khan proliferation network are in sharp relief to the typically toothless attempts by the UN to halt proliferation. You can count with one hand countries opposed to the United States. They are the "Gang of Five": China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Venezeula. Of course, countries like India, for example, do not agree with all policy choices made by the United States, such as toward Iran, but New Delhi is friendly to Washington. Only the "Gang of Five" may be expected to consistently resist the agenda and actions of the United States. China is clearly the most important of these states because it is a rising great power. But even Beijing is intimidated by the United States and refrains from openly challenging U.S. power. China proclaims that it will, if necessary, resort to other mechanisms of challenging the United States, including asymmetric strategies such as targeting communication and intelligence satellites upon which the United States depends. But China may not be confident those strategies would work, and so it is likely to refrain from testing the United States directly for the foreseeable future because China's power benefits, as we shall see, from the international order U.S. primacy creates. The other states are far weaker than China. For three of the "Gang of Five" cases‑‑Venezuela, Iran, Cuba‑it is an anti‑U.S. regime that is the source of the problem; the country itself is not intrinsically anti‑American. Indeed, a change of regime in Caracas, Tehran or Havana could very well reorient relations. THROUGHOUT HISTORY, peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power‑‑Rome, Britain or the United States today. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. Everything we think of when we consider the current international order ‑ free trade, a robust monetary regime, increasing respect for human rights, growing democratization‑‑is directly linked to U.S. power. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U.S. power behind it. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. Without U.S. power, the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. As country and western great Rai Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it)." Consequently, it is important to note what those good things are. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies, American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. The first has been a more peaceful world. During the Cold War, U.S. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists, most notably France and West Germany. Today, American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned‑-between Greece and Turkey, Israel and Egypt, South Korea and Japan, India and Pakistan, Indonesia and Australia. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened, such as in Darfur, but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood, particularly war's worst form: great power wars. Second, American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism. Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because, as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue, liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview.3 So, spreading democracy helps maintain U.S. primacy. In addition, once states are governed democratically, the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. Indeed they do. Rather, it is because they are more open, more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U.S. leadership. And so, in general, democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United States. Critics have faulted the Bush Administration for attempting to spread democracy in the Middle East, labeling such an effort a modern form of tilting at windmills. It is the obligation of Bush's critics to explain why democracy is good enough for Western states but not for the rest, and, one gathers from the argument, should not even be attempted. Of course, whether democracy in the Middle East will have a peaceful or stabilizing influence on America's interests in the short run is open to question. Perhaps democratic Arab states would be more opposed to Israel, but nonetheless, their people would be better off. The United States has brought democracy to Afghanistan, where 8.5 million Afghans, 40 percent of them women, voted in a critical October 2004 election, even though remnant Taliban forces threatened them. The first free elections were held in Iraq in January 2005. It was the military power of the United States that put Iraq on the path to democracy. Washington fostered democratic governments in Europe, Latin America, Asia and the Caucasus. Now even the Middle East is increasingly democratic. They may not yet look like Western‑style democracies, but democratic progress has been made in Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon, Iraq, Kuwait, the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. By all accounts, the march of democracy has been impressive. Third, along with the growth in the number of democratic states around the world has been the growth of the global economy. With its allies, the United States has labored to create an economically liberal worldwide network characterized by free trade and commerce, respect for international property rights, and mobility of capital and labor markets. The economic stability and prosperity that stems from this economic order is a global public good from which all states benefit, particularly the poorest states in the Third World. The United States created this network not out of altruism but for the benefit and the economic well‑being of America. This economic order forces American industries to be competitive, maximizes efficiencies and growth, and benefits defense as well because the size of the economy makes the defense burden manageable. Economic spin‑offs foster the development of military technology, helping to ensure military prowess. Perhaps the greatest testament to the benefits of the economic network comes from Deepak Lal, a former Indian foreign service diplomat and researcher at the World Bank, who started his career confident in the socialist ideology of post‑independence India. Abandoning the positions of his youth, Lal now recognizes that the only way to bring relief to desperately poor countries of the Third World is through the adoption of free market economic policies and globalization, which are facilitated through American primacy.4 As a witness to the failed alternative economic systems, Lal is one of the strongest academic proponents of American primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides.
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Thayer, 06, Professor of Strategic Studies – Associate Professor of Defense and Strategic Study @ Missouri State University, Former Research Fellow @ International Security Program @ Harvard Belfer Center of Science and International Affairs (Bradley, “In Defense of Primacy,” The National Interest, November/December)
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retrenchment would lead to far greater instability and war American primacy takes as its starting point the protection of oil flow around the world global trade and monetary regimes retrenchment will make the United States less secure threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play Whether they are terrorists, rogue states or rising powers, threats must be confronted. abandoning commitments does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. weakness emboldens aggression predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong in a world where American primacy is clearly on display countries want to align themselves with the United States because doing so allows them to use the power of the United States for their own purposes U.S. primacy‑-and the bandwagoning effect‑has also given us extensive influence to create coalitions of like‑minded states the current international order ‑ free trade, a robust monetary regime, human rights democratization‑‑is directly linked to U.S. power. Appalling things happen when international orders collapse The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. Without U.S. power, the liberal order will end primacy causes a more peaceful world U.S. leadership reduced friction among many states Greece Turkey, Israel Egypt, South Korea Japan, India Pakistan, Indonesia and Australia. Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood, particularly great power wars. American power gives the U S the ability to spread democracy once states are governed democratically, the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. they are more open to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U.S. leadership economic stability prosperity market economic policies and globalization are facilitated through American primacy
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Heg is key to global stability and accesses every major impact
| 14,212 | 63 | 1,868 | 2,248 | 11 | 274 | 0.004893 | 0.121886 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,160 |
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United States and other nations to spew forth protectionist legislation like the notorious Smoot-Hawley bill. Introduced at the start of the Great Depression, it triggered a series of tit-for-tat economic responses, which many commentators believe helped turn a serious economic downturn into a prolonged and devastating global disaster. But if history is any guide, those lessons will have been long forgotten during the next collapse. Eventually, fed by a mood of desperation and growing public anger, restrictions on trade, finance, investment, and immigration will almost certainly intensify. Authorities and ordinary citizens will likely scrutinize the cross-border movement of Americans and outsiders alike, and lawmakers may even call for a general crackdown on nonessential travel. Meanwhile, many nations will make transporting or sending funds to other countries exceedingly difficult. As desperate officials try to limit the fallout from decades of ill-conceived, corrupt, and reckless policies, they will introduce controls on foreign exchange. Foreign individuals and companies seeking to acquire certain American infrastructure assets, or trying to buy property and other assets on the cheap thanks to a rapidly depreciating dollar, will be stymied by limits on investment by noncitizens. Those efforts will cause spasms to ripple across economies and markets, disrupting global payment, settlement, and clearing mechanisms. All of this will, of course, continue to undermine business confidence and consumer spending. In a world of lockouts and lockdowns, any link that transmits systemic financial pressures across markets through arbitrage or portfolio-based risk management, or that allows diseases to be easily spread from one country to the next by tourists and wildlife, or that otherwise facilitates unwelcome exchanges of any kind will be viewed with suspicion and dealt with accordingly. The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring about ever more heated arguments and dangerous confrontations over shared sources of oil, gas, and other key commodities as well as factors of production that must, out of necessity, be acquired from less-than-friendly nations. Whether involving raw materials used in strategic industries or basic necessities such as food, water, and energy, efforts to secure adequate supplies will take increasing precedence in a world where demand seems constantly out of kilter with supply. Disputes over the misuse, overuse, and pollution of the environment and natural resources will become more commonplace. Around the world, such tensions will give rise to full-scale military encounters, often with minimal provocation. In some instances, economic conditions will serve as a convenient pretext for conflicts that stem from cultural and religious differences. Alternatively, nations may look to divert attention away from domestic problems by channeling frustration and populist sentiment toward other countries and cultures. Enabled by cheap technology and the waning threat of American retribution, terrorist groups will likely boost the frequency and scale of their horrifying attacks, bringing the threat of random violence to a whole new level. Turbulent conditions will encourage aggressive saber rattling and interdictions by rogue nations running amok. Age-old clashes will also take on a new, more heated sense of urgency. China will likely assume an increasingly belligerent posture toward Taiwan, while Iran may embark on overt colonization of its neighbors in the Mideast. Israel, for its part, may look to draw a dwindling list of allies from around the world into a growing number of conflicts. Some observers, like John Mearsheimer, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, have even speculated that an “intense confrontation” between the United States and China is “inevitable” at some point. More than a few disputes will turn out to be almost wholly ideological. Growing cultural and religious differences will be transformed from wars of words to battles soaked in blood. Long-simmering resentments could also degenerate quickly, spurring the basest of human instincts and triggering genocidal acts. Terrorists employing biological or nuclear weapons will vie with conventional forces using jets, cruise missiles, and bunker-busting bombs to cause widespread destruction. Many will interpret stepped-up conflicts between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.
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Panzner, 08 – faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase (Michael, “Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse,” p. 136-138)
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curbs on trade will inspire nations to spew protectionist legislation protectionism will bring confrontations over key commodities tensions will give rise to full-scale military encounters, with minimal provocation. Turbulent conditions will encourage interdictions by rogue nations China will assume an increasingly belligerent posture toward Taiwan Iran may coloniz the Mideast. Israel may look to draw allies from around the world into conflicts. cultural and religious differences will be transformed to battles soaked in blood. spurring genocidal acts.
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Protectionism will cause global wars – risks extinction
| 4,553 | 55 | 557 | 672 | 8 | 77 | 0.011905 | 0.114583 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,161 |
WASHINGTON, DC / LONDON – A bipartisan Congressional report published Thursday by the U.S. Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control (Senate Drug Caucus) emphasizes cracking down on money laundering as key to curtailing the illicit drug trade. Quoting heavily from Global Financial Integrity (GFI) experts and research, the study endorses eliminating anonymous U.S. shell companies through the passage of the bipartisan Incorporation Transparency and Law Enforcement Assistance Act, bolstering enforcement of existing anti-money laundering (AML) policies, and strengthening anti-money laundering laws through passage of the bipartisan Combating Money Laundering, Terrorist Financing and Counterfeiting Act.
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Gascologne, 13 (Clark, “U.S. Senate Report: Tackle Money Laundering to Curtail Drug Trafficking,” April 26, 2013, http://www.gfintegrity.org/content/view/611/70/
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A bipartisan Congressional report published Thursday by the U.S. Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control the study
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Cracking down on IFFs is key to curtailing the drug trade - status quo put the cart before the horse
| 714 | 100 | 123 | 94 | 20 | 17 | 0.212766 | 0.180851 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,162 |
The generally weak structure of African states has meant that the deregulation of trade and the financial markets, coupled with the growing pressures of globalization on their sovereignty and capacities, have led to an increase in corruption, violent conflict, the plunder of natural resources, and growing involvement in the drugs business. The international antinarcotics institu- tions see Sub-Saharan Africa principally as a transit territory for drugs, al- though the cultivation of cannabis for local consumption has been a traditional activity subject to controls. By the esnly 1980s, however, there was a rapid spread of illicit cannabis crops. These were produced to supply the expanding home markets and for the intemational trade, and from the 1980s such crops have been grown extensively, especially in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa. Experiments in growing the opium poppy and the coca leaf have also been carried out in Benin, the Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Togo in West Africa, and Kenya and Tanzania in East Africa.
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Arnold, 05 – Specialist in North-South relations who writes mainly in the areas of African history, politics, and international affairs, former director of African Bureau (Guy, The International Drugs Trade, pg. 182-183, Routledge, Tashma)
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The generally weak structure of African states has meant that the deregulation of financial markets, coupled with the growing pressures of globalization have led to an increase in violent conflict and growing involvement in the drugs business. , there was a rapid spread of illicit cannabis crops.
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Drug trade fuels African instability --- finances conflict
| 1,039 | 58 | 297 | 162 | 8 | 47 | 0.049383 | 0.290123 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,163 |
The Rabid Tiger Project believes that a nuclear war is most likely to start in Africa. Civil wars in the Congo (the country formerly known as Zaire), Rwanda, Somalia and Sierra Leone, and domestic instability in Zimbabwe, Sudan and other countries, as well as occasional brushfire and other wars (thanks in part to "national" borders that cut across tribal ones) turn into a really nasty stew. We've got all too many rabid tigers and potential rabid tigers, who are willing to push the button rather than risk being seen as wishy-washy in the face of a mortal threat and overthrown. Geopolitically speaking, Africa is open range. Very few countries in Africa are beholden to any particular power. South Africa is a major exception in this respect - not to mention in that she also probably already has the Bomb. Thus, outside powers can more easily find client states there than, say, in Europe where the political lines have long since been drawn, or Asia where many of the countries (China, India, Japan) are powers unto themselves and don't need any "help," thank you. Thus, an African war can attract outside involvement very quickly. Of course, a proxy war alone may not induce the Great Powers to fight each other. But an African nuclear strike can ignite a much broader conflagration, if the other powers are interested in a fight. Certainly, such a strike would in the first place have been facilitated by outside help - financial, scientific, engineering, etc. Africa is an ocean of troubled waters, and some people love to go fishing.
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Deutsch, 01 – Dr., Founder Rabid Tiger Project and Newsletter (Jeffery, Vol. 2, No. 7, 11-18, http://www.rabidtigers.com/rtn/newsletterv2n9.html)
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a nuclear war is most likely to start in Africa wars turn into a really nasty stew Africa is open range South Africa has the Bomb. Thus, outside powers can more easily find client states an African war can attract outside involvement very quickly a nuclear strike can ignite a much broader conflagration Africa is an ocean of troubled waters, and some people love to go fishing
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African instability escalates to global nuclear war
| 1,544 | 52 | 377 | 263 | 7 | 67 | 0.026616 | 0.254753 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,164 |
Warfare and drugs share many characteristics—they prolong human suffering, bedevil political leaders, and enrich a select few. Further, they have been intertwined at vari- ous times throughout history However, the pernicious role of drugs in organized political violence is often overlooked. Drugs have caused wars, funded military operations, been used by combatants, and have been part of the postwar political landscape by financing some legitimate political actors and parties. Drugs have corrupted militaries, toppled governments, prompted interventions, and taken thousands of lives. The insidious nature of drugs is especially visible in t0day’s wars.
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Kan, 09 – Associate Professor of National Security Studies and the Henry L. Simson Chair of Military Studies at U.S. Army War College (Paul R., Drugs and Contemporary Warfare, pg. 5, Potomac Books Inc., Tashma)
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Warfare and drugs prolong human suffering and enrich a select few. the pernicious role of drugs in organized political violence is often overlooked. Drugs have caused wars and have been part of the postwar political landscape by financing some legitimate political actors and parties. Drugs have corrupted militaries, toppled governments, prompted interventions, and taken thousands of lives.
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Drug trade fuels conflict --- profitable production areas become conflict hotspots --- empirics prove
| 658 | 101 | 392 | 93 | 14 | 57 | 0.150538 | 0.612903 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,165 |
Battlefield intoxication is also an important element when discussing the role of drugs in warfare. With civil wars now comprising the vast majority of violent clashes, very few wars are between professional militaries. account for the majority of lighting forces. As a result of diminished professionalism, narcotic usage allows for "combat narcosis," which alters a person’s fear, stress, and inhibition. Drug abuse by combatants not only presents professional militaries with operational and tactical challenges, but it has a range of effects as well—from public health issues to human rights abuses as well as post-conllict settlement a.t1d nation—building.
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Kan, 09 – Associate Professor of National Security Studies and the Henry L. Simson Chair of Military Studies at U.S. Army War College (Paul R., Drugs and Contemporary Warfare, pg. 5, Potomac Books Inc., Tashma)
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Battlefield intoxication is also an important element when discussing the role of drugs in warfare. With civil wars now comprising the vast majority of violent clashes, very few wars are between professional militaries. As a result of diminished professionalism, narcotic usage allows for "combat narcosis," which alters a person’s fear, stress, and inhibition. Drug abuse by combatants not only presents professional militaries with tactical challenges, but it has a range of effects as well—from public health issues to human rights abuses
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No checks to escalation --- drug-fueled conflicts are distinct from conventional warfare
| 661 | 89 | 541 | 97 | 12 | 81 | 0.123711 | 0.835052 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,166 |
WASHINGTON, DC – Global Financial Integrity (GFI) today called on leaders of the G8 to concretely tackle the issue of illicit financial flows and end tax haven secrecy when they meet this weekend at Camp David. Illegal capital flight costs the developing world roughly $1 trillion per year, according to GFI research.
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Gascolgne, 12 (Clark, “GFI Calls on G8 to Tackle Illicit Financial Flows at Camp David Summit), May 17, 2012, http://www.gfintegrity.org/content/view/510/70/)
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Illegal capital flight costs the developing world roughly $1 trillion per year, according to GFI research.
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Stopping IFFs is key to a post-aid-dependent world
| 317 | 51 | 106 | 52 | 8 | 16 | 0.153846 | 0.307692 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,167 |
With the prevalence of project failure, there is an associated call for increasingly technical solutions. However failure is judged for the particular engineering project to which one is referring--perhaps the voting system needs to be altered or the pipe design for water delivery needs to be rethought--the politics that lie underneath the project failure are increasingly ignored. Ferguson argues for the productive effect of such failures. He cites Foucault who, “speaking of the prison, suggest that dwelling on the ‘failure’ of the prison may be asking the wrong question.” Perhaps, he suggests, One should reverse the problem and ask oneself what is served by the failure of the prison; what is the use of these different phenomena that are continually being criticized; the maintenance of delinquency, the encouragement of recidivism, the transformation of the occasional offender in a habitual delinquency, the organization of a closed milieu of delinquency. (Foucault 1979: 272). The implication, Ferguson argues, is that, through failure, the state can justify further intervention in areas that will expanding its scope into the private sphere of people’s lives under the pretense of attempting to fix past mistakes. More studies, more extension agents, more infiltration of the social environment allows, perversely, for more control and manipulation of society. While Marx describes the retreat of the state from development projects so that development become depoliticized, Ferguson call attention to the ways that development can be a tool of the state to insert itself deeper into the surveillance and extraction of capital from society.
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Gorden, 04 – Ph.D Politics from University of California, Santa Cruz (Kea, “Depoliticizing Effects of International Development at the Praxis of Liberal Institutionalism,” Field Statement No. 2, May 10, 2004)
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With the prevalence of project failure, there is an associated call for increasingly technical solutions failure is judged for the particular engineering project to which one is referring the politics that lie underneath the project failure are increasingly ignored One should reverse the problem and ask oneself what is served by the failure of the prison The implication, the state can justify further intervention in areas that will expanding its scope into the private sphere of people’s lives under the pretense of attempting to fix past mistakes more infiltration of the social environment allows, perversely, for more control and manipulation of society development can be a tool of the state to insert itself deeper into the surveillance and extraction of capital from society.
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Development enables the state to expand biopolitical control
| 1,655 | 60 | 785 | 252 | 8 | 123 | 0.031746 | 0.488095 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,168 |
Since the classical age the West has undergone a very profound transformation of these mechanisms of power. “Deduction” has tended to be no longer the major form of power but merely one element among others, working to incite, reinforce, control, monitor, optimize, and organize the forces under it: a power bent on generating forces, making them grow, and ordering them, rather than one dedicated to impeding them, making them submit, or destroying them. There has been a parallel shift in the right of death, or at least a tendency to align itself with the exigencies of a life-administering power and to define itself accordingly. This death that was based on the right of the sovereign is now manifested as simply the reverse of the right of the social body to ensure, maintain, or develop its life. Yet wars were never as bloody as they have been since the nineteenth century, and all things being equal, never before did regimes visit such holocausts on their own populations. But this formidable power of death—and this is perhaps what accounts for part of its force and the cynicism with which it has so greatly expanded its limits—now presents itself as the counterpart of a power that exerts a positive influence on life, that endeavors to administer, optimize, and multiply it, subjecting it to precise controls and comprehensive regulations. Wars are no longer waged in the name of a sovereign who must be defended; they are waged on behalf of the existence of everyone; entire populations are mobilized for the purpose of wholesale slaughter in the name of life necessity: massacres have become vital. It is as managers of life and survival, of bodies and the race, that so many regimes have been able to wage so many wars, causing so many men to be killed. And through a turn that closes the circle, as the technology of wars has caused them to tend increasingly toward all-out destruction, the decision that initiates them and the one that terminates them are in fact increasingly informed by the naked question of survival. The atomic situation is now at the end point of this process: the power to expose a whole population to death is the underside of the power to guarantee an individual’s continued existence. The principle underlying the tactics of battle—that one has to be capable of killing in order to go on living—has become the principle that defines the strategy of states. But the existence in question is no longer the juridical existence of sovereignty; at stake is the biological existence of a population. If genocide is indeed the dream of modern powers, this is not because of a recent return of the ancient right to kill; it is because power is situated and exercised at the level of life, the species, the race, and the large-scale phenomena of population.
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Foucault, 78 – Professor of Philosophy at the College de France (Michel, The History of Sexuality: An Introduction, Vol. 1, pp. 136-7)
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Wars are no longer waged in the name of a sovereign who must be defended; they are waged on behalf of the existence of everyone; entire populations are mobilized for the purpose of wholesale slaughter in the name of life necessity: . It is as managers of life and survival, that so many regimes have been able to wage so many wars, toward all-out destruction, The atomic situation is now at the end point of this process: the power to expose a whole population to death is the underside of the power to guarantee an individual’s continued existence. If genocide is indeed the dream of modern powers, this is not because of a recent return of the ancient right to kill; it is because power is situated and exercised at the level of life,
|
Biopower makes life meaningless and mass extinction inevitable
| 2,796 | 62 | 741 | 476 | 8 | 134 | 0.016807 | 0.281513 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,169 |
NOT ONE TO mince words, Daniel Mitchell of the right-wing Cato Institute denounces the OECD’s push to co-ordinate global tax enforcement as “the devil’s spawn” and possibly even a step towards the fiscal equivalent of—shudder!—the World Trade Organisation. Tax havens “should not have to enforce the burdensome tax laws of other countries”, he thunders. “Having grown rich with the tax policies of their choosing, the OECD countries are pulling up the ladder and saying, ‘you can’t do the same to attract investment’. It’s fiscal imperialism.” To tax-freedom advocates like Mr Mitchell, one of the most infuriating aspects of this perceived imperialism is the complete overhaul of cross-border information exchange. It is technical stuff, but the changes are extremely important. They promise to shine a light on some of the darkest corners of banking and investing, not only making tax evasion much harder but also casting a net over a host of other financial sins—and, along the way, testing financial firms’ compliance departments to the limit. The new era began in 2009 with something of a false start. The G20 decreed that in order to be considered clean, tax havens had to sign bilateral tax-information exchange agreements (TIEAs) with at least 12 other jurisdictions. This led to a surge in TIEAs and tax-treaty amendments (see chart 4 below) and the fairly prompt removal of tax havens from the OECD blacklist. The accords call for exchange “on request”. A country has to share information only if the other signatory asks for it and the request is based on well-founded suspicions. Ask, and it shall be given? The OECD touted this as a step towards transparency that would also respect individuals’ right to confidentiality as much as possible. But tax investigators complain that the process for getting information is cumbersome and the bar has been set too high. “You already have to have pretty much all the information you’re after to get the last piece. It’s a catch-22,” says one. That may explain why the number of requests made has been small. Offshore officials have complaints of their own. Françoise Hendy, Barbados’s chief tax negotiator, thinks that the real motive for promoting TIEAs was to draw the tax havens’ competitive sting, because TIEAs do not offer the same benefits as the full-blown double-taxation treaties that OFCs such as Barbados generally prefer. And small jurisdictions felt obliged to comply even though they knew that the main target was Switzerland. Moreover, the TIEAs did not appear to reduce financial flows to tax havens. An academic study of the crackdown by Niels Johannesen of the University of Copenhagen and Gabriel Zucman of the Paris School of Economics looked at data on cross-border bank deposits in 2009-11 and found that, despite modest outflows from less compliant jurisdictions, the overall level of funds in OFCs barely changed. Tax NGOs say the “on request” model is a dud and that tax transparency can be achieved only through the regular, automatic exchange of information. America gave the world a big push in this direction in 2010 when it passed the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA). This requires foreign financial firms to identify account-holders and investors who might be American. If the clients do not reply to inquiries, they will have a 30% tax withheld from their income arising in America. The rules will be phased in over four years, starting in 2014. FATCA’s intrusiveness has caused concern among banks and fund managers. It raises big questions about data privacy. Compliance costs, mostly borne overseas, are likely to be at least double the revenue that the law will generate for America. The necessary overhauls of systems and procedures and the extra digging around to identify American clients could add $100m or more to a large bank’s administrative costs. No wonder bankers have dubbed FATCA the Fear And Total Confusion Act. An OECD tax official describes the law as “awful, in a way, like a nuclear bomb” but also sees it as “a remarkable leap forward for transparency”. And though it began as a brazenly unilateral move, it has since become more inclusive. America has signed or is negotiating bilateral agreements with 50 countries, each of which would accept some version of FATCA. In return America would offer information on its holdings of their citizens’ money. The resulting patchwork of intergovernmental agreements, each one slightly different, will add further to the compliance burden for international banks and fund managers. The biggest benefit of automatic exchange is that it deters rather than detects.
|
Economist, 2/16/13 (“Tax transparency: Automatic response,” The Economist, 2/16/2013, http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21571561-way-make-exchange-tax-information-work-automatic-response)//YS
|
a surge in TIEAs and tax-treaty amendments call for exchange “on request”. A country has to share information only if the other signatory asks for it and the request is based on well-founded suspicions. But tax investigators complain that the process for getting information is cumbersome and the bar has been set too high. the TIEAs did not appear to reduce financial flows to tax havens. An academic study of the crackdown by Niels Johannesen of the University of Copenhagen and Gabriel Zucman of the Paris School of Economics looked at data on cross-border bank deposits in 2009-11 and found that, despite modest outflows from less compliant jurisdictions, the overall level of funds in OFCs barely changed the “on request” model is a dud and that tax transparency can be achieved only through the regular, automatic exchange of information America gave the world a big push in this direction in 2010 when it passed FATCA biggest benefit of automatic exchange is that it deters rather than detects.
|
Exchange must be automatic – on request method empirically fails to deter
| 4,625 | 73 | 1,001 | 751 | 12 | 167 | 0.015979 | 0.22237 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,170 |
(Reuters) - Mexico's banking reform will take two or three years to have an impact on credit and access to financial services, said the chairman of Mexico's largest locally-owned bank, Grupo Financiero Banorte.¶ The reforms, unveiled earlier this month, aim to increase lending in Latin America's second-largest economy to improve development of the small business sector and boost growth.¶ But Guillermo Ortiz, also a former finance minister and head of the central bank, said it would take time for the reform to seep through to the real economy, where many workers have jobs in the informal sector and don't have bank accounts.¶ "The banking reform will not have a notable impact in the short term," Ortiz said at the Reuters Latin America Investment Summit.¶ "If it is successful, we'll see an acceleration in financial penetration after two or three years."¶ Mexican banks, which include the local units of Spain's BBVA (BBVA.MC) and U.S. bank Citigroup (C.N), are well capitalized but conservative lending practices mean private sector financing stands at just 26 percent of gross domestic product - below Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Peru and Chile.¶ Ortiz declined to give a forecast on how much credit could increase as a result of the reform, but pointed to the success of reforms in Brazil. Private sector credit in Brazil jumped from less than 25 percent of GDP to 35 percent between 2004 and 2007 after changes in the 1990s and early 2000s.¶ "In Mexico we have one of the most solid and healthy financial systems in the world, but at the same time one of those which lend the least," President Enrique Pena Nieto said in launching the reform.¶ Ortiz said the large informal sector, which employs 60 percent of the workforce, made it impossible for banks to properly gauge credit risk.¶ Shrinking the informal sector is one of the objectives of fiscal reform that Finance Minister Luis Videgaray is preparing and aims to present later this year.¶ The finance ministry estimates small- and medium-sized companies generate nearly three-quarters of Mexican jobs but receive just 15 percent of credit.¶ Central bank governor Agustin Carstens has said the reform could add around 0.5 percentage point to growth in two or three years.
|
Sarmiento and Hughes, 5/20 – Correspondent, Reuters AND Chief Economics Correspondent, Reuters (Tomas AND Krista, “Mexico will see bank reform impact in 2-3 years: Banorte's Ortiz”, 5/20/2013, Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/20/us-latam-summit-banorte-idUSBRE94J0I620130520)//JW
|
Mexico's banking reform will take or three years to have an impact on credit and access to financial services aim to increase lending to improve development of the small business sector and boost growth But would take time for the reform to seep through to the real economy, banking reform will not have a notable impact in the short term "If it is successful
|
Banking reform won’t solves – takes years, assuming it’s even successful
| 2,239 | 72 | 359 | 368 | 11 | 64 | 0.029891 | 0.173913 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,171 |
At least $18.5 trillion is hidden by wealthy individuals in tax havens worldwide, representing a loss of more than $156 billion in tax revenue, according to new figures published today by international agency Oxfam.
|
Oxfam International, 13 (May 22, “Tax Havens Private Billions Could End Extreme Poverty Twice Over,” http://www.oxfam.org/en/eu/pressroom/pressrelease/2013-05-22/tax-havens-private-billions-could-end-extreme-poverty-twice-over)
|
At least $18.5 trillion is hidden by wealthy individuals in tax havens worldwide, representing a loss of more than $156 billion in tax revenue
|
Taxing IFFs solves poverty – yields more than double the revenue needed
| 215 | 71 | 142 | 34 | 12 | 24 | 0.352941 | 0.705882 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,172 |
At the same time, information reporting provides some assurance to the entire society that tax on capital income is in fact being collected from wealthy taxpayers. A government can, for example, provide reports showing distributional breakdowns of the tax burden. In contrast, cross-border anonymous withholding can undermine the perceived legitimacy of the government by eroding the citizenry’s confidence that the government is raising funds in an equitable matter.168 If the transparency of taxation has any role to play in constituting the democratic experience, then moving to an anonymous withholding system to collect those taxes most likely to be associated with privilege undermines that role. Anonymous cross-border withholding of income tax on capital income changes the taxing relationship between the citizen and the state. At minimum it reduces the taxpayer’s awareness of a domestic fiscal process and any consequent likelihood to engage the polity to demand accountability.169 Beyond that, cross-border anonymous withholding may shake all citizens’ confidence that the government is raising funds equitably, and therefore weaken the legitimacy of the state.170 In this sense it differs
|
Grinberg, 12 – Associate Professor at Georgetown University Law Center, former attorney at the Office of International Tax Counsel at the U.S. Dept. of Treasury, where he worked on FATCA from its inception (Itai, Georgetown Law: The Scholarly Commons, “Beyond FATCA: An Evolutionary Moment for the International Tax System,” January 27, 2012, http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1162&context=fwps_papers&seiredir=1&referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Furl%3Fsa%3Dt%26rct%3Dj%26q%3Deconomist%2520automatic%2520exchange%2520tax%26source%3Dweb%26cd%3D40%26ved%3D0CGsQFjAJOB4%26url%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fscholarship.law.georgetown.edu%252Fcgi%252Fviewcontent.cgi%253Farticle%253D1162%2526context%253Dfwps_papers%26ei%3DoR7xUcbIIYXVqAHo3YCQCw%26usg%3DAFQjCNFxQNj6scIncBgqKuT1xDxPA7bOrQ%26sig2%3D1NeWwQFotuiB8rpri_Wtnw%26bvm%3Dbv.49784469%2Cd.eWU#search=%22economist%20automatic%20exchange%20tax%22).
|
information reporting provides some assurance to the entire society that tax on capital income is in fact being collected from wealthy taxpayers. A government can, for example, provide reports showing distributional breakdowns of the tax burden. In contrast, cross-border anonymous withholding can undermine the perceived legitimacy of the government by eroding the citizenry’s confidence that the government is raising funds in an equitable matter If the transparency of taxation has any role to play in constituting the democratic experience, then moving to an anonymous withholding system to collect those taxes most likely to be associated with privilege undermines that role. At minimum it reduces the taxpayer’s awareness of a domestic fiscal process and any consequent likelihood to engage the polity to demand accountability.169 Beyond that, cross-border anonymous withholding may shake all citizens’ confidence that the government is raising funds equitably, and therefore weaken the legitimacy of the state.170 In this sense it differs
|
AEI is key to building democracies in developing countries – key to legitimacy and demands for accountability
| 1,201 | 109 | 1,045 | 176 | 17 | 153 | 0.096591 | 0.869318 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,173 |
WASHINGTON – Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., chairman of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, and Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, together with Senators Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., and Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, are introducing the Incorporation Transparency and Law Enforcement Assistance Act today to combat acts of terrorism, money laundering, tax evasion, and other wrongdoing facilitated by U.S. corporations with hidden owners. The bill would end the practice of the 50 states forming corporations for unidentified persons, and instead require the states to obtain the identities of the persons behind the corporations formed under their laws.
|
HSGAC Permanent Subcomittee on Government Affairs, 8/1/13, (“Levin, Grassley, Feinstein, Harkin Introduce Bill to Combat U.S. Corporations With Hidden Owners,” http://www.hsgac.senate.gov/subcommittees/investigations/media/levin-grassley-feinstein-harkin-introduce-bill-to-combat-us-corporations-with-hidden-owners)
|
Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., chairman of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, and Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, together with Senators Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., and Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, are introducing the Incorporation Transparency and Law Enforcement Assistance Act today to combat acts of terrorism, money laundering, tax evasion, and other wrongdoing facilitated by U.S. corporations with hidden owners. The bill would end the practice of the 50 states forming corporations for unidentified persons, and instead require the states to obtain the identities of the persons behind the corporations formed under their laws.
|
No link/nonunique – Bipartisan group just introduced a bill aimed at decreasing U.S.-based tax evasion and money laundering – Obama is pushing
| 694 | 143 | 681 | 99 | 22 | 97 | 0.222222 | 0.979798 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,174 |
In recent weeks, citizens in many countries suffering from government budget cutbacks have been learning more and more about one of the biggest and most dangerous scams in the world: the global web of tax havens that U.S. and European politicians and bankers have nurtured over the years. The only real purpose of these havens is to facilitate tax evasion, money laundering, bribery, and lack of accountability for environmental and social calamities inflicted by international companies.
|
Sachs, 13 – Director of Earth Institute at Columbia University (Jeffrey, “Time to End the Tax Havens,” May 8, 2013, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-sachs/time-to-end-the-tax-haven_b_3241900.html
|
In recent weeks, citizens in many countries suffering from government budget cutbacks have been learning more and more about one of the biggest and most dangerous scams in the world: the global web of tax havens that U.S. and European politicians and bankers have nurtured over the years.
|
Anti-tax evasion policies are bipartisan - Public outcry and austerity measures have changed politicians’ minds
| 488 | 111 | 288 | 76 | 15 | 48 | 0.197368 | 0.631579 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,175 |
The meeting which brought together over 60 delegates comprising key stakeholders from East and Southern Africa is part of a continental wide consultative process aimed at sensitizing and building a coalition on illicit financial flows which are grossly hurting the continent. It is estimated that Africa loses USD$50 billion a year in illicit financial flows that find their way to developed countries draining the continent of the much needed resources.
|
U.N. Commission for Africa, 6/19/13 (“The High Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows Meets in Lusaka,”http://www.uneca.org/media-centre/stories/high-level-panel-illicit-financial-flows-meets-lusaka#.UfvM2M3B-jQ)
|
It is estimated that Africa loses USD$50 billion a year in illicit financial flows that find their way to developed countries draining the continent of the much needed resources
|
Leaders of developing countries recognize that IFFs are a global problem that only international cooperation can solve
| 454 | 119 | 177 | 70 | 17 | 29 | 0.242857 | 0.414286 |
Mexico IFFs Aff - Michigan7 2013 CFJPV.html5
|
Michigan (7-week)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,176 |
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1) asymmetric interests in the bargaining framework that can introduce unpredictable behavior from actors; (2) the presence of non-state actors that introduce unpredictability into relationships between the antagonists; (3) incompatible assumptions about the structure of the deterrent relationship that makes the bargaining framework strategically unstable; (4) perceptions by Israel and the United States that its window of opportunity for military action is closing, which could prompt a preventive attack; (5) the prospect that Iran’s response to pre-emptive attacks could involve unconventional weapons, which could prompt escalation by Israel and/or the United States; (6) the lack of a communications framework to build trust and cooperation among framework participants. These systemic weaknesses in the coercive bargaining framework all suggest that escalation by any the parties could happen either on purpose or as a result of miscalculation or the pressures of wartime circumstance. Given these factors, it is disturbingly easy to imagine scenarios under which a conflict could quickly escalate in which the regional antagonists would consider the use of chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. It would be a mistake to believe the nuclear taboo can somehow magically keep nuclear weapons from being used in the context of an unstable strategic framework. Systemic asymmetries between actors in fact suggest a certain increase in the probability of war – a war in which escalation could happen quickly and from a variety of participants. Once such a war starts, events would likely develop a momentum all their own and decision-making would consequently be shaped in unpredictable ways. The international community must take this possibility seriously, and muster every tool at its disposal to prevent such an outcome, which would be an unprecedented disaster for the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.
|
Russell, 9 (James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, ‘9 (Spring) “Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East” IFRI, Proliferation Papers//, #26, __http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf__)
|
Strategic stability is undermined by the presence of non-state actors that introduce unpredictability into relationships between the antagonists; incompatible assumptions about the structure of the deterrent relationship that makes the bargaining framework strategically unstable the lack of a communications framework to build trust and cooperation among framework participants escalation by any the parties could happen as a result of miscalculation or the pressures of wartime circumstance a conflict could quickly escalate in which the regional antagonists would consider the use nuclear weapons an unprecedented disaster for entire world.
|
E. Mid-east wars cause extinction
| 2,022 | 33 | 643 | 302 | 5 | 88 | 0.016556 | 0.291391 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Disadvantages
|
2013
|
3,177 |
The success of the Havana Conference demonstrated that the pursuit of the ‘Good Neighbor Policy' and especially Roosevelt's successful presentation of that policy had contributed to a distinct improvement in inter- American relations. As a result most Latin American countries joined the United States in organizing resistance against the fascist threat posed by Germany and Italy both before and during the Second World War. The Havana meeting, however, was arguably a highpoint of American diplomatic interest in Latin America because it occurred at a time when American officials were placing great value on the countries of the region as a source of raw materials, vital military bases and diplomatic support against the Axis powers of Germany, Italy and Japan. However, once the United States entered the war in December 1941, American diplomatic interest shifted sharply to Europe and Asia while Latin America moved to the periphery. Once the "˜Europe first' strategy was adopted, the holding of Pan-American meetings of consultation and policymaking, which had become a feature of the pre-war period, were regarded as unnecessary and a diversion of diplomatic resources. In fact, after the conference of foreign ministers at Rio de Janeiro in January 1942 the state department discouraged any further Pan-American meetings for the duration of the war.
|
Smith, 5 [Joseph, The United States and Latin America: A History of American Diplomacy, 2005 google books]
|
The Havana meeting was a highpoint when American officials were placing great value on the region However, once American diplomatic interest shifted Latin America moved to the periphery. Pan-American meetings were regarded as unnecessary and a diversion of diplomatic resources.
|
Latin America focus diverts diplomatic resources
| 1,358 | 48 | 278 | 210 | 6 | 40 | 0.028571 | 0.190476 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Disadvantages
|
2013
|
3,178 |
The President's Executive Order recognized that diplomatic efforts would be essential to the review and appropriate disposition of individuals detained at Guantanamo. To implement the review decisions approving the transfer of detainees, the order provides that the "Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of State, and, as appropriate, other Review participants shall work to effect promptly the release or transfer of all individuals for whom release or transfer is possible." The President emphasized this point during his speech at the National Archives, stating that for cases involving "detainees who we have determined can be transferred safely to another country ... my Administration is in ongoing discussions with a number of other countries about the transfer of detainees to their soil." To fulfill this mission, the Secretary of State created an office to lead the diplomatic efforts to transfer detainees and appointed an experienced career diplomat to serve as the Special Envoy for the Closure of the Guantanamo Bay Detention Facilities. The highest levels in the administration supported these efforts. The President, Vice President, and Cabinet members—including the Secretary of State, Attorney General, and Secretary for Homeland Security—have discussed the closure of the Guantanamo detention facilities and the transfer of detainees outside the United States with their foreign government counterparts. To assist these diplomatic efforts, the National Counterterrorism Center facilitated the sharing of information about the detainees with foreign governments considering whether to accept them. In addition, the government arranged meetings between officials from interested countries and detainees at Guantanamo to facilitate resettlement and repatriation discussions.
|
Olsen 10 (Matthew, American prosecutor and the current Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, 1-22-10, Guantanamo Review Task Force Final Report, Print)
|
The President's Executive Order recognized that diplomatic efforts would be essential to the review and disposition of individuals detained at Guantanamo. To implement the transfer of detainees, the order provides that the Secretary of State, shall work to effect promptly the release or transfer of all individuals for whom release or transfer is possible." To fulfill this mission, the Secretary of State created an office to lead the diplomatic efforts to transfer detainees highest levels in the administration supported these efforts. including the Secretary of State have discussed the closure of the Guantanamo detention facilities and the transfer of detainees assist these diplomatic efforts, the National Counterterrorism Center facilitated the sharing of information about the detainees with foreign governments the government arranged meetings between officials from interested countries and detainees at Guantanamo to facilitate resettlement and repatriation discussions.
|
Shutting down Guantanamo requires massive diplomatic efforts
| 1,789 | 60 | 984 | 254 | 7 | 138 | 0.027559 | 0.543307 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Disadvantages
|
2013
|
3,179 |
Senator Kerry, the quintessential American diplomat, will be taking over at a time when the US is more than eager to sustain and extend its global leadership. Obama’s second-term is ought to be achievement-oriented as unfinished business in terms of the two-state solution in the Middle East and ensuring tranquility in Afghanistan with the complete pullout of troops in 2014 will be under intense scrutiny. Moreover, the US shouldn’t be lost in dealing with the mess in Syria, and it’s high time an astute diplomat who could do some plain talking with the regime in Damascus was mandated with an agenda of bringing the strife-torn Arab country back from the brink. Avoiding another unnecessary war in the region and compelling America’s allies to look out for an amicable solution of the dispute will be Kerry’s roulette. Similarly, the task of manning a neighbour-friendly foreign policy in the backyard of America, especially in ties with border-irritant Mexico and ambitious Brazil and Venezuela, will be no less arduous. Kerry’s hobnobbing with the Western allies in Europe and Russia as the transatlantic alliance, Nato, goes ahead to institutionalise a security decorum in the region will clearly spell out how assertive America could be in times to come. Nonetheless, in an era of recession and capital flight, Kerry, unlike Clinton, has to warm up to China and Japan to ensure that America’s economic interests are onboard.
|
Khaleej Times, 12 ["Kerry's Tough Task," 12-23-12, www.khaleejtimes.com/displayarticle.asp?xfile=data/editorial/2012/December/editorial_December46.xml§ion=editorial&col=, accessed 7-18-13, mss]
|
Kerry will be taking over at a time when the US is achievement-oriented as unfinished business in terms of the two-state solution in the Mid East will be under intense scrutiny. Avoiding another unnecessary war in the region will be Kerry’s roulette the task of manning a neighbour-friendly foreign policy in the backyard of America, especially in ties with border-irritant Mexico and Venezuela, will be no less arduous
|
Kerry has to deal with Mexico- saps diplomatic energy from the Mid-east
| 1,432 | 71 | 419 | 232 | 12 | 68 | 0.051724 | 0.293103 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Disadvantages
|
2013
|
3,180 |
NOMINATED SECRETARY OF STATE VOWS TO SUPPORT MEXICO, STRENGTHEN EFFORTS John Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts and President Barak Obama’s nominee for Secretary of State, voiced his support for continued and strengthened bilateral collaboration with Mexico. If elected, Kerry said he would increase U.S. efforts to support its neighbor’s fight against drugs. Speaking in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and his fellow members of Congress during his confirmation hearing on January 24, Kerry made it clear the United States would continue its efforts laid out by the Merida Initiative, a $1.6 billion (USD) initiative approved in 2008 that provides resources to Mexico for security and military expenses, judicial reform, and training, among other areas. According to Terra, he also supported Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto’s plan to shift away from such a strong reliance on the military, and move more towards strengthening the implementation and functioning of the new judicial system throughout the country. As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for the past three years, Kerry had already shown his support for this transition last summer by calling for additional financial resources–$250 million a year for four years–to help fund the country’s judicial reform processes and security efforts. (Read the Committee on Foreign Relations July 2012 report on this here). Continuing the conversation and referring to the Merida Initiative, Kerry said at his hearing, “We have to convince our colleagues of the importance of these types of initiatives that have strong roots, and that we have the ability to help until more substantial results are achieved.”
|
J.I.M., 13 [Justice in Mexico, "Nominated Secretary of State Vows to Support Mexico, Strengthen Efforts," 1-25-13, justiceinmexico.org/2013/01/25/nominated-secretary-of-state-vows-to-support-mexico-strengthen-efforts/, accessed 7-18-13, mss]
|
NOMINATED SECRETARY OF STATE VOWS TO SUPPORT MEXICO Kerry voiced his support for bilateral collaboration with Mexico As chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Kerry had already shown his support
|
Kerry will be tied to Mexico efforts
| 1,698 | 36 | 203 | 260 | 7 | 31 | 0.026923 | 0.119231 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Disadvantages
|
2013
|
3,181 |
Absent Chávez, Venezuela will continue to be tricky in the second Obama administration. The administration will need to arrive at a more accurate on-the-ground reading of what is happening in the country. It will need to engage in quiet, steady, high-level diplomacy with key allies in the region not only to closely monitor the security situation and guard against dire scenarios but to press for free and fair elections and adherence to the rule of law. None of this will be easy, and recent history is not encouraging. But Chávez is gone, and although for now some measure of continuity in Venezuela is most likely, conditions of scarcity -- in charisma, money, and political astuteness -- will soon be acutely felt. It is important not to forget that Chávez was able to do what he did for 14 years for a simple reason -- because he could.
|
Shifter, 13 --- Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service (3/11/2013, Michael, “The Empire Makes Nice: Is it time for a Venezuela reset?” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/03/11/the_empire_makes_nice_venezuela_hugo_chavez, JMP)
|
Absent Chávez, Venezuela will continue to be tricky The administration will need to arrive at a more accurate on-the-ground reading of what is happening . It will need to engage in quiet, steady, high-level diplomacy with key allies in the region not only to closely monitor the security situation but to press for free and fair elections None of this will be easy, and recent history is not encouraging
|
Engaging with Venezuela requires diplomatic effort—it’s an uphill battle
| 842 | 72 | 403 | 147 | 9 | 69 | 0.061224 | 0.469388 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Disadvantages
|
2013
|
3,182 |
6. Revive Energy Diplomacy and Commercial Engagement Energy diplomacy and commercial advocacy should be vital components of U.S. energy policy in the coming decades. The global energy system is projected to remain dependent upon fossil fuels for the foreseeable future, and as a result, having access to reliable, affordable sources of energy will remain important, as will the stability of energy markets. Energy diplomacy should center on ensuring that the U.S. has good working relationships with the countries that produce and consume energy. Successful energy diplomacy can serve a critical role in managing tensions over energy development, transportation, investment, and other issues. The Department of State has significantly increased its capabilities to conduct energy diplomacy through the establishment of the Energy and Natural Resources Bureau, led by Ambassador Carlos Pascual. Its programs should be robustly funded. We should also deepen the international energy diplomacy capacity of the Department of Energy. The Department of Energy’s relationships with civil servants in ministries across the globe provide a bridge across changes in government here and there. They can talk when the politics of non-energy issues obstruct dialogue among the foreign ministries. It is easier to get Energy Ministers together for regular meetings than Secretaries of State. Their staff should be expanded and serious program budget established to make our cooperation more than rhetorical. For true reform to be achieved, foreign ministers and heads of government will have to be involved, as this will be the key to integrating energy security into foreign policy. The three countries that need robust attention at this time are Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela. Mexico is considering major reforms and we have much we can share at a technical level on gas markets, unconventional oil and gas technology, safe regulation of the deepwater, and energy efficiency. We should create a quiet bilateral mechanism for sharing this information with Mexican ministries, its nascent regulator and PEMEX. Changing global markets also impact Brazil, and we should ensure that the Strategic Energy Dialogue is reactivated as soon as new officials are on board at the Department of Energy. Venezuela is trickier because it is in political transition and there is a great deal of rhetorical hostility. But the US had a technical dialogue with Venezuela that lasted over 30 years. We need to know the new officials at the Ministry and PdVSA and to share our view of market realities, even if we may not agree on them. Sometime in 2013, after the Venezuelan elections, this technical dialogue should be revived, perhaps at the Assistant Secretary, or Deputy Assistant Secretary level. Conclusion Mr. Chairman, the ties between Latin America and the Caribbean and the energy security of the United States are numerous. Here I have addressed only a few of the possible avenues for improving U.S. energy security, and there are undoubtedly more, but the overarching conclusion is that energy security goals in the Hemisphere can be achieved through improved dialogue and relations with allies and adversaries alike. As I stated in 2008, it will require new approaches to energy and foreign policy. It will require fresh policy approaches, money, and creative diplomacy. But more than anything it will require leadership. As a citizen I thank the committee for its leadership on this critical issue.
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Goldwyn, 13 --- President, Goldwyn Global Strategies, LLC (4/11/2013, David L., “The Impact of the Tight Oil and Gas Boom on Latin America and the Caribbean: Opportunities for Cooperation,” House Committee on Foreign Affairs; Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere; “Energy Opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean” http://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20130411/100622/HHRG-113-FA07-Wstate-GoldwynD-20130411.pdf, JMP)
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Energy diplomacy should be vital components of U.S. energy policy Successful energy diplomacy can serve a critical role in managing tensions over energy development, transportation, investment, and other issues. The Department of State has significantly increased its capabilities to conduct energy diplomacy Venezuela is trickier because it is in political transition and there is a great deal of rhetorical hostility. But the US had a technical dialogue with Venezuela that lasted over 30 years. We need to know the new officials at the Ministry and PdVSA and to share our view of market realities, even if we may not agree on them. energy security goals in the Hemisphere can be achieved through improved dialogue and relations with allies and adversaries alike it will require new approaches to energy and foreign policy. It will require fresh policy approaches, money, and creative diplomacy. But more than anything it will require leadership
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Sustained energy diplomacy is required to work with Venezuela’s oil sector
| 3,479 | 74 | 947 | 543 | 11 | 149 | 0.020258 | 0.274401 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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2013
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3,183 |
But beyond early assessments of whether Mr Kerry is up to the job, we must acknowledge that success as secretary of state depends increasingly these days on the ability of a skilled manager to do more with less. This president’s stated policy goals focus overwhelmingly on the domestic side, and when boasting of his first-term foreign policy achievements, Barack Obama speaks mainly of bringing soldiers home, reducing the leverage of US diplomats at international bargaining tables. As for this first trip, it’s no surprise that Mr Kerry begins his work in Europe and the Middle East, the two regions he knows best. Friendships in London, Berlin, Paris, Rome, Ankara, Cairo, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha will serve him well. His challenge in Europe will be to keep the US involved in the process of eurozone reform without offering much direct material help and to create momentum behind a transatlantic trade pact that will take years to negotiate. In the Middle East, the first step will be to try to stop the carnage in Syria and help prepare the ground for a capable new government. He scored an early apparent success by helping persuade opposition leaders to join talks on Syria’s future. Yet Mr Kerry knows well that here, as in other Middle East hotspots, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran will have significant say in how a post-Assad Syria develops in coming years. Particularly given the “pivot” of more US resources and attention to Asia, America’s direct involvement will be more limited than in the past, and every government in the Middle East knows it.
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Foreign Times 2-28 (John Kerry: an able performer in a tough role, The Economist, Foreign Times, 28 February 2013, http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2013/02/#axzz2NLY74YLL, da 3-12-13) PC
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success as secretary of state depends on the ability of a skilled manager to do more with less. This president’s goals focus on the domestic side Obama speaks of bringing soldiers home, reducing the leverage of US diplomats at international bargaining tables Kerry begins his work in the Middle East In the Middle East He scored an early apparent success Yet Kerry knows that in Middle East hotspots America’s direct involvement will be more limited than in the past, and every government in the Middle East knows it
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Kerry’s diplomatic capital is finite especially in the context of new Middle East policies
| 1,564 | 90 | 516 | 264 | 14 | 88 | 0.05303 | 0.333333 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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2013
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3,184 |
Secretary of State John Kerry forged a new tack toward peace in the Middle East with a group of Arab delegates Monday, hours after the Israeli military fired rockets into Gaza in what it says was retribution for a militant attack. Representatives from the Arab League met with the chief U.S. diplomat and Vice President Joe Biden at the State Department Monday afternoon to restart a strategy to establish Palestine as its own country and solidify a relationship with neighboring Israel. One of the delegates said the meeting injected newfound vigor into forging an enduring peace. "The intention of the mission of the delegation is to highlight the fact that it is due time for the international community and the U.S. to work in order to put an end to the Israeli occupation and to work for the creation of the Palestinian state," Riyad al-Maliki, foreign affairs minister to the Palestinian National Authority, told a group of reporters Monday. "We should not waste time trying to revive or reactivate the so-called peace process," al-Maliki said. "We intend to go to the main objective, which is to put an end to the Palestinian suffering and end the occupation and allow the Palestinian people to have their own viable, independent state." Israeli officials say they are ready to talk peace with the Palestinian Authority. "We regard the United States as a crucial partner in our search for peace with the Palestinians,” said Aaron Sagui, a spokesman with the Israeli embassy in Washington. “We welcome a creative and active American role, and we support Secretary Kerry's efforts to try to bring the Palestinians back to the negotiating table." The secretary of state offered "a very clear commitment on his side and the side of President Barack Obama" to establish peace in the region, al-Maliki said. "We felt that Secretary [Kerry] is very serious, very committed," he said. Al-Maliki said he and the other delegates expect another meeting in four to six weeks to further discuss implementing the Arab Peace Initiative, a plan first unveiled in 2002 that calls for permanent Palestinian borders based on how they existed prior to June 4, 1967. Kerry said on Monday the Arab League would play a "very important role" in this peace process.
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Shinkman ‘13(Paul D. Shinkman, national security reporter for U.S. News and World Report, “Secretary Kerry to Sponsor New Palestine-Israel Peace Talks”, 4/30/2013, U.S. News, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/30/secretary-kerry-to-sponsor-new-palestine-israel-peace-talks)
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Secretary of State John Kerry forged a new tack toward peace in the Middle East Representatives from the Arab League met with the chief U.S. diplomat to restart a strategy to establish Palestine as its own country and solidify a relationship with neighboring Israel. the meeting injected newfound vigor into forging an enduring peace. Israeli officials say they are ready to talk peace with the Palestinian Authority. "We regard the United States as a crucial partner in our search for peace with the Palestinians,” said Aaron Sagui, a spokesman with the Israeli embassy “We welcome a creative and active American role, and we support Secretary Kerry's efforts to try to bring the Palestinians back to the negotiating table." The secretary of state offered "a very clear commitment to establish peace in the region "We felt that Secretary [Kerry] is very serious, very committed," he said.
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Kerry is a necessary figure in the Peace Talks
| 2,247 | 46 | 889 | 376 | 9 | 145 | 0.023936 | 0.385638 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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2013
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3,185 |
It takes large doses of optimism and ambition for a U.S. Secretary of State to tackle “the biggest, the longest, the most complicated and the most vexing” of all international conflicts. That, in the words of John Kerry, is the 65-year-old conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. How much America’s new top diplomat can do to bring Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table and revive the comatose “peace process” largely depends on whether he can act as an honest broker, the role a long line of U.S. mediators were supposed to play. Instead, many of them acted as “Israel’s lawyers,” as former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger wrote in his memoirs. In theory, Kerry is in a good position to introduce a measure of even-handedness into dealing with the long-festering problem. He is familiar with the region, having travelled there often as a member and later chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on which he served for 28 years. In 2009, as chairman of the committee, he made a rare visit to Gaza. Aides say he has a personal passion for this “most vexing” of conflicts. Perhaps as importantly, Kerry is said to want to go down in history as one of America’s great secretaries of state. Helping settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would earn him a place in the pantheon of diplomacy and trump the achievements of many of his predecessors, including Hillary Clinton. She left office as the most widely traveled top diplomat in U.S. history but did not score a diplomatic triumph worthy of the history books. Unlike Clinton, Kerry appears to have no presidential ambitions for 2016, hence he is less constrained by domestic politics and the heated disputes often generated by the subject of Israel and the Palestinians. In practice, Kerry’s first three visits to the region as secretary of state – Turkey, Israel and the West Bank – produced no clear signs that the administration of President Barack Obama is rethinking its relationships with the protagonists in the conflict – or its tendency to shrug off Israeli actions that run counter to official American policy and international law, such as building Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. While there were no expectations for immediate results, the Kerry visits served to underscore the limits of U.S. influence in the region. In Istanbul, Kerry stressed that “Turkey can be a key, an important contribution to the process of peace in so many ways.” One of those ways, he explained, would be to help revive the ailing economy of the West Bank, another to create a climate of peace in Gaza, the Hamas-run coastal strip that often is the elephant in the room in discussions about the conflict. Both Israeli and Palestine Authority officials poured cold water on Turkey’s possible insertion into the peace process. Kerry was equally unsuccessful in trying to persuade Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to keep in place Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, the U.S.-educated former World Bank economist whose drive to build institutions for a future Palestinian state drew more praise from the U.S. than from Palestinians. The two leaders had been at loggerheads and despite a phone call from Kerry, Abbas accepted Fayyad’s resignation on April 14. Kerry appears undaunted by such setbacks. He plans more visits to the Middle East in the next few months. Before that, an Arab League delegation is due in Washington on April 29 to discuss a peace proposal first introduced by Saudi Arabia in 2002 and later adopted by an Arab League summit in Beirut. The plan offered full Arab recognition of Israel in exchange for territory it captured in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Israel rejected the proposal but the Arab League re-endorsed it five years later. Whether the initiative, in its original form or with changes, has better prospects of being accepted now than it had then is open to doubt. How much time and diplomatic capital Kerry can spend on reviving something that has been more process than peace for two decades ultimately depends on Obama, who firmly directed foreign policy in his first term. Major decisions were shaped in the White House, not the State Department, something not likely to change in Obama’s second term. His visit to Jerusalem in March was meant to boost his standing in Israel – low after years of charges from American pro-Israel hawks that he was cool to the Jewish state. A speech to young Israelis highlighted how much he has softened his language on settlements. In 2009, in a speech in Cairo, he said: “The United States does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements. This construction violates previous agreements and undermines efforts to achieve peace. It is time for these settlements to stop.” His words in Jerusalem: “Israelis must recognize that continued settlement activity is counterproductive to the cause of peace
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Debusmann ‘13(Bernd Debusmann, former Reuters world affairs columnist, “Kerry and the peace process .. Can he be the honest broker”, 4/19/13, The Daily Star, http://www.nosratashraf.com/en/content/21806#.UeYEjbf9ToA.gmail)
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It takes optimism and ambition to tackle “the biggest, the longest, the most complicated and the most vexing” of all international conflicts. How much America’s new top diplomat can do depends on whether he can act as an honest broker the role U.S. mediators were supposed to play Kerry is in a good position to introduce a measure of even-handedness into dealing with the long-festering problem He is familiar with the region, having travelled there often as a member and later chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on which he served for 28 years Aides say he has a personal passion for this “most vexing” of conflicts. Perhaps as importantly, Kerry is said to want to go down in history as one of America’s great secretaries of state Unlike Clinton, Kerry appears to have no presidential ambitions for 2016, hence he is less constrained by domestic politics and the heated disputes often generated by the subject of Israel and the Palestinians. Kerry’s visits to Turkey, Israel and the West Bank served to underscore the limits of U.S. influence in the region Kerry appears undaunted . He plans more visits How much time and diplomatic capital Kerry can spend depends on Obama His visit to Jerusalem in March was meant to boost his standing in Israel
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Kerry is in a key position to settle peace talks
| 4,884 | 48 | 1,267 | 811 | 10 | 216 | 0.01233 | 0.266338 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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2013
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3,186 |
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry briefed senior Arab officials Wednesday on his efforts to restart Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and on American views of the crises in Syria and Egypt. On his sixth trip to the region in as many months as America's top diplomat, Kerry met in Jordan with representatives of the Arab League and nine of its members that support a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace plan proposed by Saudi Arabia. The Arab leaders endorsed Kerry's approach to restarting peace talks. In addition to the peace process, Kerry was updating the Arabs on U.S. support for the Syrian opposition and attempts to convene an international conference to establish a transition government there, as well as Washington's position on Egypt's political turmoil. The gathering came a day after Kerry had a five-hour dinner meeting in Amman with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas. Officials said Kerry and Abbas discussed the way forward and projects aimed at bolstering the Palestinian economy. No further details were available, and Kerry and Abbas were planning to meet again Wednesday. Kerry in Mideast to make new push for Israeli-Palestinian peace talks It remained unclear whether Kerry would meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or any of his top aides on his trip. Israel is not currently on Kerry's itinerary, although officials said that could change. A joint statement issued by Kerry and the Arab League delegation after talks Wednesday appeared to give Arab backing to the secretary's ideas for restarting the Israeli-Palestinian talks. "The Arab delegates believe Kerry's ideas proposed to the committee today constitute a good ground and suitable environment for restarting the negotiations, especially the new and important political, economic and security elements," the statement said. Abbas has refused to negotiate unless Israel halts all construction in West Bank settlements. Israel has refused, saying negotiations should resume without conditions. Kerry has offered the Palestinians a package of economic incentives to restart the talks. Kerry has spent hours with Abbas and Netanyahu trying to set the stage for a return to peace talks that foundered and collapsed in 2008. Kerry insists progress has been made but there have been few, if any, discernible signs that the two sides are getting closer to agreeing to discuss the major issues that divide them. Kerry said Tuesday after talks with Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh that he wanted to see a Syrian refugee camp, and it appeared likely that if such a visit is arranged, it would happen Thursday before he is scheduled to return to the United States. Judeh said Kerry had expressed concern about the economic impact the humanitarian crisis in Syria has had in Jordan, which hosts more than a half million displaced Syrians. Should the visit materialize, it would be the first by an Obama administration Cabinet-level figure to Syrian refugees, some of whom have complained about a lack of U.S. support. Syrian rebels have also complained that they are not receiving promised military assistance from Washington. Later Wednesday, Kerry is to meet Jordan's King Abdullah II and then brief reporters at a news conference with Judeh.
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CBS ‘13(CBS News, “Arab leaders endorse Kerry's bid to restart Israeli-Palestinian peace talks”, 7/17/13, CBS News, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57594130/arab-leaders-endorse-kerrys-bid-to-restart-israeli-palestinian-peace-talks/)
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John Kerry briefed senior Arab officials on his efforts to restart Israeli-Palestinian peace talks On his sixth trip Kerry met representatives of the Arab League and nine of its members that support a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace plan proposed by Saudi Arabia. The Arab leaders endorsed Kerry's approach to restarting peace talks. Kerry had a five-hour dinner meeting in Amman with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas Kerry and Abbas discussed the way forward and projects aimed at bolstering the Palestinian economy Kerry in Mideast to make new push for Israeli-Palestinian peace talks A joint statement issued by Kerry and the Arab League appeared to give Arab backing to the secretary's ideas for restarting the Israeli-Palestinian talks Kerry's ideas constitute a good ground and suitable environment for restarting the negotiations Kerry has offered the Palestinians a package of economic incentives to restart the talks. Kerry has spent hours with Abbas and Netanyahu to set the stage for peace talks
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Kerry’s methods are vital to a peace talk agreement
| 3,228 | 51 | 1,007 | 511 | 9 | 156 | 0.017613 | 0.305284 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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2013
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3,187 |
Any Third Lebanon War/General Middle East War is apt to involve WMD on both side quickly as both sides know the stakes and that the Israelis are determined to end, once and for all, any Iranian opposition to a 'Greater Israel' domination of the entire Middle East. It will be a case of 'use your WMD or lose them' to enemy strikes. Any massive WMD usage against Israel will result in the usage of Israeli thermonuclear warheads against Arab and Persian populations centers in large parts of the Middle East, with the resulting spread of radioactive fallout over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the first use of nukes is apt to be lower yield warheads directed against Iranian underground facilities including both nuclear sites and governmental command and control and leadership bunkers, with some limited strikes also likely early-on in Syrian territory. The Iranians are well prepared to launch a global Advanced Biological Warfare terrorism based strike against not only Israel and American and allied forces in the Middle East but also against the American, Canadian, British, French, German, Italian, etc., homelands. This will utilize DNA recombination based genetically engineered 'super killer viruses' that are designed to spread themselves throughout the world using humans as vectors. There are very few defenses against such warfare, other than total quarantine of the population until all of the different man-made viruses (and there could be dozens or even over a hundred different viruses released at the same time) have 'burned themselves out'. This could kill a third of the world's total population. Such a result from an Israeli triggered war would almost certainly cause a Russian-Chinese response that would eventually finish off what is left of Israel and begin a truly global war/WWIII with multiple war theaters around the world. It is highly unlikely that a Third World War, fought with 21st Century weaponry will be anything but the Biblical Armageddon.
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Stirling 11 - hereditary Governor & Lord Lieutenant of Canada, Lord High Admiral of Nova Scotia, M.A. in European Studies [The Earl of Stirling 11, “General Middle East War Nears - Syrian events more dangerous than even nuclear nightmare in Japan”,http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2011/03/general-middle-east-war-nears-syrian.html]
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Middle East War is apt to involve WMD quickly a case of 'use your WMD or lose them' Any massive WMD usage against Israel will result in the usage of Israeli thermonuclear warheads against Arab and Persian populations with resulting spread of radioactive fallout Iranians engineered 'super killer viruses' that are designed to spread themselves throughout the world using humans as vectors. This could kill a third of the world's total population almost certainly cause a Russian-Chinese response that would eventually finish off what is left a truly global war
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Mid-east war causes extinction
| 1,997 | 30 | 560 | 320 | 4 | 90 | 0.0125 | 0.28125 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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2013
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3,188 |
For Iran, political instability in the Middle East region particularly neighbouring states like Iraq, and the Israel‐Palestine conflict could have led to a nuclear weapons option. Supporting this is TV Paul’s argument that nuclear choices of potential proliferators are likely to be greatly influenced by the security environment and conflict level of its region. However, he does not deny the role of great power in shaping the regional power equation by active involvement in the regional conflicts between emerging regional powers and its inferior adversaries. Thus a great power active in a region could be part of the security complex, most often by imposing, but sometimes by receiving, negative and positive security externalities. For example, the US is an active member of the regional security complex of both the Middle East and East Asia. The US preponderance in the Middle East particularly its support to Israel and its foreign policy irks other states that are hostile towards Israel. This would definitely alter the regional power equation in Middle East. It was reported that Iran’s nuclear expansion programme involves obtaining technology to produce HEU. Iran has benefitted from AQ Khan’s nuclear black market where it is alleged to have acquired enrichment technology violating international nuclear norms.
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Jeganaathan 12 [J Jeganaathan - Researcher at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi. He has a PhD in European Studies from School of International Studies. Fellow at Centre for Transnational Relations, Foreign and Security Policy. IPCS, “The IPCSNuclear Security Programme Quarterly”; September 2012 - Accessed July 16th; http://www.ipcs.org/Nuclear_Quarterly-Oct-Dec_2012.pdf --- Leis]
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For Iran, political instability in the Middle East region particularly neighbouring states like Iraq, and the Israel‐Palestine conflict could have led to a nuclear weapons option. nuclear choices of potential proliferators are likely to be greatly influenced by the security environment and conflict level of its region The US preponderance in the Middle East particularly its support to Israel and its foreign policy irks other states that are hostile towards Israel . It was reported that Iran’s nuclear expansion programme involves obtaining technology to produce HEU. Iran has benefitted from AQ Khan’s nuclear black market where it is alleged to have acquired enrichment technology violating international nuclear norms
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Israeli-Palestine conflict leads to Iran prolif
| 1,327 | 47 | 724 | 205 | 6 | 108 | 0.029268 | 0.526829 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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2013
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3,189 |
Some states in the region are doubting U.S. resolve to stop the program and are shifting their allegiances to Tehran. Others have begun to discuss launching their own nuclear initiatives to counter a possible Iranian bomb. For those nations and the United States itself, the threat will only continue to grow as Tehran moves closer to its goal. A nuclear-armed Iran would immediately limit U.S. freedom of action in the Middle East. With atomic power behind it, Iran could threaten any U.S. political or military initiative in the Middle East with nuclear war, forcing Washington to think twice before acting in the region. Iran’s regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia, would likely decide to acquire their own nuclear arsenals, sparking an arms race. To constrain its geopolitical rivals, Iran could choose to spur proliferation by transferring nuclear technology to its allies -- other countries and terrorist groups alike. Having the bomb would give Iran greater cover for conventional aggression and coercive diplomacy, and the battles between its terrorist proxies and Israel, for example, could escalate. And Iran and Israel lack nearly all the safeguards that helped the United States and the Soviet Union avoid a nuclear exchange during the Cold War -- secure second-strike capabilities, clear lines of communication, long flight times for ballistic missiles from one country to the other, and experience managing nuclear arsenals. To be sure, a nuclear-armed Iran would not intentionally launch a suicidal nuclear war. But the volatile nuclear balance between Iran and Israel could easily spiral out of control as a crisis unfolds, resulting in a nuclear exchange between the two countries that could draw the United States in, as well.
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Kroenig 12 (Matthew, assistant professor of Government at Georgetown University and Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, January/February 2012, “Time to Attack Iran - Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option” Foreign Affairs) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136917/matthew-kroenig/time-to-attack-iran
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states in the region are doubting U.S. resolve to stop the program and are shifting their allegiances to Tehran. Others have begun to discuss launching their own nuclear initiatives to counter a possible Iranian bomb the threat will only continue to grow as Tehran moves closer to its goal. A nuclear-armed Iran would immediately limit U.S. freedom of action in the Middle East. With atomic power behind it, Iran could threaten any U.S. political or military initiative in the Middle East with nuclear war, forcing Washington to think twice Iran’s regional rivals would likely decide to acquire their own nuclear arsenals, sparking an arms race. To constrain its geopolitical rivals, Iran could choose to spur proliferation by transferring nuclear technology to its allies -- other countries and terrorist groups alike. Having the bomb would give Iran greater cover for conventional aggression and coercive diplomacy, and the battles between its terrorist proxies and Israel could escalate. Iran and Israel lack nearly all the safeguards that helped the U S and the Soviet Union avoid a nuclear exchange during the Cold War -- secure second-strike capabilities, clear lines of communication, long flight times for ballistic missiles from one country to the other, and experience managing nuclear arsenals the volatile nuclear balance between Iran and Israel could easily spiral out of control as a crisis unfolds, resulting in a nuclear exchange between the two countries that could draw the U S
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Iran prolif causes nuclear war
| 1,745 | 30 | 1,495 | 277 | 5 | 238 | 0.018051 | 0.859206 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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2013
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3,190 |
Things have been bad before but over the past two and a half years of the Intifada [Palestinian uprising], the situation between Israelis and Palestinians [has] deteriorated to what must surely be close to rock bottom. The Israelis, enraged by the devastation Palestinian suicide bombers have wrought on the populations of their towns and cities, have enforced ever more vicious punishments and restrictions, including demolishing schools, hospitals and homes, frequently with the inhabitants still inside. The imposition of almost 24-hour-long curfews and the execution of a 'shoot to kill' policy that has claimed the lives of hundreds of innocent Palestinians as well as foreign observers—some of them in the Occupied Territories specifically to help avert the threat of physical danger to the Palestinians—have further exacerbated the situation.¶ The Palestinians are being herded into ever decreasing tracts of land and, in the case of the West Bank, suffering the humiliation and the dangers attached to being restrained there by an eight metre high perimeter wall the Israelis have constructed to cage them.¶ Israeli settlements have continued to mushroom in the hills above Palestinian towns and villages in direct contravention of United Nations rulings. The daily lives of Palestinian men, women and children have gradually descended into the sort of living hell most of us cannot begin to comprehend. Deprived not only of their liberty but also of water, fresh food supplies, the right to work, education—all of the things most of us take for granted—some have resorted to drastic action.¶ All life is precious and every Israeli death that has occurred as a result of fanatical suicide bombers is to be mourned. But it is the flagrant abuse of, and disregard for, Palestinian life that fuels the zealots of Arab extremist groups who demand reparation in blood. In the meantime, it is the ordinary citizens on both sides who have paid the highest price for the failure of their leaders to reach a workable solution.
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Pat Lancaster (Editor-in-chief for The Middle East magazine, "Brokering a Peace Between Israel and Palestine Can Reduce Terrorism," 2004. The Middle East (July 2003): 6. Opposing Viewpoints In Context //Bobby)
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over the past two and a half years of the Palestinian uprising], the situation between Israelis and Palestinians [has] deteriorated to what must surely be close to rock bottom. The Israelis enraged by the devastation Palestinian suicide bombers have wrought on the populations of their towns and cities have enforced ever more vicious punishments and restrictions, including demolishing schools, hospitals and homes, frequently with the inhabitants still inside The imposition of almost 24-hour-long curfews and the execution of a 'shoot to kill' policy that has claimed the lives of hundreds of innocent Palestinians as well as foreign observers—some of them in the Occupied Territories specifically to help avert the threat of physical danger to the Palestinians—have further exacerbated the situation The Palestinians are being herded into ever decreasing tracts of land and, in the case of the West Bank, suffering the humiliation and the dangers attached to being restrained there by an eight metre high perimeter wall the Israelis have constructed to cage them Israeli settlements have continued to mushroom in the hills above Palestinian towns and villages in direct contravention of United Nations rulings The daily lives of Palestinian men, women and children have gradually descended into the sort of living hell most of us cannot begin to comprehend. Deprived not only of their liberty but also of water, fresh food supplies, the right to work, education—all of the things most of us take for granted—some have resorted to drastic action.¶ All life is precious and every Israeli death that has occurred as a result of fanatical suicide bombers is to be mourned. But it is the flagrant abuse of, and disregard for, Palestinian life that fuels the zealots of Arab extremist groups who demand reparation in blood. In the meantime, it is the ordinary citizens on both sides who have paid the highest price for the failure of their leaders to reach a workable solution.
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Suffering over Israeli oppression drives Palestinians and enraged Arab groups to terrorism
| 2,025 | 90 | 1,975 | 324 | 12 | 317 | 0.037037 | 0.978395 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,191 |
Palestinian politicians rebuffed Thursday a peace blueprint hashed out by US Secretary of State John Kerry with president Mahmoud Abbas in a major blow to the American politician's marathon peace efforts. A senior Fatah official said the party wanted changes to what Abbas had agreed. "Fatah wants to make some alterations to Kerry's plan... because the proposed ideas are not encouraging for a return to negotiations," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The central committee is demanding, for a return to talks... that Kerry announce they should be based on the 1967 lines," said Amin Maqbul, secretary general of the ruling Fatah movement's Revolutionary Council. Meanwhile, a spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied Thursday previous reports stating that Israel had agreed to a proposed formula for new peace talks with the Palestinians under which the border of their future state would be along lines that existed before the 1967 Middle East war. An Israeli official had previously said on Thursday that Israel was open to talks based on the 1967 borders, but with agreed land swaps and Palestine recognizing Israel as a "Jewish state." The rejection of the plan by the governing Revolutionary Council of Abbas's own Fatah movement before it had even been put to the wider Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which includes leftist factions more hostile to a compromise, meaning the blueprint was likely to be put on hold. A US official acknowledged that Kerry was now unlikely to be able to announce a resumption of direct peace negotiations despite extending until Friday his sixth visit to the region in as many months. "There are currently no plans for an announcement on the resumption of negotiations," said State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki. Kerry had urged Israel on Wednesday afternoon to carefully consider a 2002 peace initiative approved by the Arab League. "Israel needs to look hard at this initiative, which promises Israel peace with 22 Arab nations and 35 Muslim nations - a total of 57 nations that are standing and waiting for the possibility of making peace with Israel," he had said. The plan, put forward by Saudi Arabia at an Arab League summit in Beirut in 2002, offered full recognition of Israel but only if it gave up all land seized in the 1967 Middle East war and agreed to a "just solution" for Palestinian refugees. Softening the plan three months ago, a top Qatari official raised the possibility of land swaps in setting future Israeli-Palestinian borders. Kerry said on Wednesday after talks with Abbas in neighboring Jordan that gaps between the sides had "very significantly" narrowed. An Arab League committee endorsed Kerry's proposals for resuming peace talks, saying they "provide the ground and a suitable environment to start negotiations." However, the issue of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which are considered illegal under international law, is still to be resolved. Palestinians are refusing to return to negotiations without a freeze on settlement activity, a possibility Israel has ruled out as it has greenlighted the constructions of hundreds of settlement homes in the past several months.
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AFP 7-18-13 (“Fatah, Israel snub Kerry draft peace plan” Alakhbar English) http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/israel-open-peace-negotiations-along-1967-borders-official-says
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Palestinian politicians rebuffed a peace blueprint hashed out by Kerry with Abbas in a major blow to the American politician's marathon peace efforts. A senior official said the party wanted changes to what Abbas had agreed. " spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu denied Thursday previous reports stating that Israel had agreed to a proposed formula for new peace talks with the Palestinians under which the border of their future state would be along lines that existed before the 1967 Middle East war The rejection of the plan by the governing Revolutionary Council of Abbas's own Fatah movement before it had even been put to the wider Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which includes leftist factions more hostile to a compromise, meaning the blueprint was likely to be put on hold. A US official acknowledged that Kerry was now unlikely to be able to announce a resumption of direct peace negotiations despite extending until Friday his sixth visit to the region in as many months. "There are currently no plans for an announcement on the resumption of negotiations," said Psaki. the issue of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which are considered illegal under international law, is still to be resolved. Palestinians are refusing to return to negotiations without a freeze on settlement activity, a possibility Israel has ruled out
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Peace talks are failing—Palestinians and Israelis can’t agree on settlements
| 3,229 | 76 | 1,378 | 518 | 10 | 222 | 0.019305 | 0.428571 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,192 |
Fatah - the party of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and the dominant faction within the PA - has effectively torpedoed U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's plan for restarting negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, a report by AFP indicates. According to the report, Fatah officials demanded on Thursday that changes be made to Kerry's Middle East peace plan, following a meeting in Ramallah. The move means it is likely the PA will also reject the plan. "Fatah wants to make some alterations to Kerry's plan... because the proposed ideas are not encouraging for a return to negotiations," a top official from Fatah said. "The central committee is demanding, for a return to talks... that Kerry announce they should be based on the 1967 lines," said Amin Maqbul, secretary general of the ruling Fatah movement's Revolutionary Council. The vote came after two rounds of intensive talks between Kerry and Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday and Wednesday, in which they thrashed out the plan. Abbas is also Fatah's leader. It was the top US diplomat's sixth visit to the region in as many months to try to broker a compromise formula to allow a resumption of direct peace talks after a three-year hiatus. Israel had rejected Palestinian demands for a publicly declared freeze to all settlement construction in Judea and Samaria as a condition to resume talks, and Abbas and his negotiating team had referred those terms to the Palestinian political leadership.
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Ronen 7-18 (Gil, staff writer, 7-18-13, “Palestinians Torpedo Kerry Plan to Restart Negotiations” Israel National News) http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/170048#.Ueif2o2siSo
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Fatah has effectively torpedoed Kerry's plan for restarting negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority According to the report, Fatah demanded that changes be made The move means it is likely the PA will also reject the plan . It was the top US diplomat's sixth visit to the region in as many months to try to broker a compromise formula to allow a resumption of direct peace talks after a three-year hiatus. Israel had rejected Palestinian demands for a publicly declared freeze to all settlement construction in Judea and Samaria as a condition to resume talks, and Abbas and his negotiating team had referred those terms to the Palestinian political leadership.
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Peace talks will fail now—Fatah
| 1,513 | 31 | 679 | 245 | 5 | 112 | 0.020408 | 0.457143 |
Diplomatic Capital Disadvantage - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,193 |
In the GOP-controlled House, courteous behavior, even within the majority ranks, has barely been perceptible with the ignominious failure of the farm bill. Some collaboration will be necessary if the House is to move ahead on immigration legislation this month.¶ Conservatives from safe, gerrymandered House districts have rebuffed appeals from some national Republicans who argue that embracing immigration overhaul will boost the party's political standing with an increasingly diverse electorate, especially in the 2016 presidential election. Those conservatives strongly oppose any legislation offering citizenship to immigrants living here illegally.¶ Reflecting the will of the rank and file, House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio and other Republicans have said the comprehensive Senate immigration bill that couples the promise of citizenship for those living here unlawfully with increased border security is a nonstarter in the House.¶ Opening the Senate session on Monday, Reid urged the House to consider the Senate bill—a highly unlikely step.¶ "Now it's our duty to convince our colleagues in the House, yes, they should vote with us," he said. "Bipartisan immigration reform that includes a pathway to citizenship makes economic and political sense."¶ House Republicans were assessing the views of their constituents during the weeklong July 4th break and planned to discuss their next steps at a private meeting Wednesday.¶ Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said Republicans would be hashing out "two key hot spots" in the meeting: the pathway to citizenship and health care.¶ "We need to be the party of solutions and not always obstructing, and so I think there's an effort here that we ... need to fix this immigration system," McCaul said Sunday on CBS' "Face the Nation." He predicted that the full House could take up immigration as early as this month, and that representatives from both chambers could be working to resolve differences in their versions late this year or early next.¶ The House Judiciary Committee has adopted a piecemeal approach, approving a series of bills, none with a path to citizenship that Obama and Democrats are seeking. Democrats hope the single-issue bills get them to a conference with the Senate, where the prospects for a far-reaching overhaul improve.¶ "I think what you're finding is that there will be a compromise, a smart compromise," Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Calif., said Sunday, also on CBS. "You have to be smart. You have to be tough. But you have to be fair. And if you can do that, you'll have a full fix."
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AP 7/8/13 (“Congress Is Back: Here's What's on the Bickering Agenda”, http://www.cnbc.com/id/100871129, CMR)
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collaboration will be necessary if the House is to move ahead on immigration this month Bipartisan reform makes sense Republicans would be hashing out key hot spots McCaul predicted the full House could take up immigration as early as this month, representatives from both chambers could be working to resolve differences Democrats hope the single-issue bills get them to a conference with the Senate, where the prospects for a far-reaching overhaul improve. there will be a compromise
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a.) Uniqueness and internal link – CIR will pass – but bipartisanship is key to effective compromise
| 2,615 | 101 | 485 | 414 | 17 | 77 | 0.041063 | 0.18599 |
Politics - Negative - UNT 2013.html5
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North Texas (UNT)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,194 |
US–Latin America relations are routinely managed by multiple bureaucratic agencies, which can act quite autonomously and are often not coordinated via a common ¶ strategy. Obama’s Latin America policy has frequently been hampered by political ¶ polarization and partisan divisions in Congress. „ The intermestic dimension of US–Latin American relations has complicated foreign ¶ policy, because a more self-confident and autonomous majority in Latin America ¶ has sometimes sought a policy shift with regard to highly sensitive topics, such as ¶ drugs, immigration and Cuba.¶ „ One issue area where some would criticize the Obama administration is its slowness ¶ in improving relations with Brazil or placing Brazil on par with, for example, India.¶ „ It is unlikely that Latin America’s modest ranking in US foreign policy will increase ¶ or that Washington’s priorities will shift much after the November 2012 elections.
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Whitehead & Nolte 12 (Laurence Whitehead, senior research fellow in politics at Nuffield College, Oxford, and Detlef Nolte, acting president of the GIGA, director of the GIGA Institute of Latin American Studies, professor of political science at the University of Hamburg, Number 6, 2012, http://www.giga-hamburg.de/dl/download.php?d=/content/publikationen/pdf/gf_international_1206.pdf, CMR)
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US–Latin America relations are managed by bureaucratic agencies, which are not coordinated Obama’s Latin America policy has been hampered by political ¶ polarization and partisan divisions „ It is unlikely Latin America’s modest ranking in US foreign policy will increase or Washington’s priorities will shift
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b.) Link – [insert one specific to affirmative case you are debating…or]
| 922 | 72 | 309 | 142 | 12 | 45 | 0.084507 | 0.316901 |
Politics - Negative - UNT 2013.html5
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North Texas (UNT)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,195 |
Our country has changed a lot during those 27 years, but not -- so far -- our immigration policy. Suffice it to say, if we can pass our generation's immigration reform, it will be a really big deal.¶ America's greatest asset has always been its people, drawn here from all over the world. In the 21st century, our economic future depends on immigrants more than ever. The fastest-growing sector of our economy is the knowledge economy, where the main competitive difference is people.¶ In a globalized world where people and businesses have their choice of countries to locate in, continuing to have the best trained, hardest-working and most productive people in the world will keep the United States at the forefront of global competitiveness. We have some huge advantages: the top universities in the world, the top scientific researchers, and -- right alongside these -- our identity as a nation of immigrants and descendants of immigrants.¶ At FWD.us, a nonprofit advocacy group, we are entrepreneurs, and we believe that one of the main reasons America is the leading entrepreneurial nation is that we are a nation of immigrants. Leaving behind your home country and everything you know to create a better life for your family is the essence of the risk-taking that characterizes the entrepreneurial ethos.¶ I think back to my ancestors in the shtetls of Eastern Europe in the 19th century. They had probably never been more than two miles from their village, and got on a steamship to go to a country they had never even seen in a picture, knowing they would never return home.¶ That is truly putting it all on the line to make a better life. It is not random, who chooses to emigrate, and the work ethic and entrepreneurial spirit of these immigrants have shaped the character of our country. Entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley do not just identify with the experience of computer programmers coming to America to work at tech companies, but with everyone who comes here to make a better life. It's why we are working for comprehensive immigration reform.¶ There are talented young people in America who were brought here by their parents who now cannot go to college or work because they are undocumented. These DREAMers are just waiting to contribute, and their parents, with the right accountability measures, should be able to join them by coming out of the shadows and contributing fully to their communities.¶ In addition, we know that the best and the brightest come here to study, start companies and create jobs that grow our economy; millions more are caught in limbo navigating a complex and broken system that is totally outdated for a modern economy and modern American families. We need to pass comprehensive immigration reform to unlock those contributions and by doing so change millions of lives.
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Green 7/2 - founder and president of FWD.us, an advocacy group created by technology leaders that promotes policies to keep the United States and its citizens competitive in a global economy (Joe, “House, knowledge economy needs immigrants”, http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/02/opinion/green-immigration-reform/index.html, CMR)
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if we can pass immigration reform, it will be a really big deal America's greatest asset has always been its people our economic future depends on immigrants more than ever The fastest-growing sector of our economy is the knowledge economy, where the main competitive difference is people continuing to have the best trained, hardest-working and most productive people in the world will keep the U S at the forefront of global competitiveness the best and the brightest come here to study, start companies and create jobs that grow our economy We need to pass c i r to unlock those contributions and change millions of lives.
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c.) Impact – CIR is key to the economy and competitiveness
| 2,818 | 59 | 625 | 474 | 11 | 106 | 0.023207 | 0.223629 |
Politics - Negative - UNT 2013.html5
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North Texas (UNT)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,196 |
Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to the United States’ position as global leader. While the United States suffers from fiscal imbalances and low economic growth, the economies of rival powers are developing rapidly. The continuation of these two trends could lead to a shift from American primacy toward a multi-polar global system, leading in turn to increased geopolitical rivalry and even war among the great powers. The current recession is the result of a deep financial crisis, not a mere fluctuation in the business cycle. Recovery is likely to be protracted. The crisis was preceded by the buildup over two decades of enormous amounts of debt throughout the U.S. economy — ultimately totaling almost 350 percent of GDP — and the development of credit-fueled asset bubbles, particularly in the housing sector. When the bubbles burst, huge amounts of wealth were destroyed, and unemployment rose to over 10 percent. The decline of tax revenues and massive countercyclical spending put the U.S. government on an unsustainable fiscal path. Publicly held national debt rose from 38 to over 60 percent of GDP in three years. Without faster economic growth and actions to reduce deficits, publicly held national debt is projected to reach dangerous proportions. If interest rates were to rise significantly, annual interest payments — which already are larger than the defense budget — would crowd out other spending or require substantial tax increases that would undercut economic growth. Even worse, if unanticipated events trigger what economists call a “sudden stop” in credit markets for U.S. debt, the United States would be unable to roll over its outstanding obligations, precipitating a sovereign-debt crisis that would almost certainly compel a radical retrenchment of the United States internationally. Such scenarios would reshape the international order. It was the economic devastation of Britain and France during World War II, as well as the rise of other powers, that led both countries to relinquish their empires. In the late 1960s, British leaders concluded that they lacked the economic capacity to maintain a presence “east of Suez.” Soviet economic weakness, which crystallized under Gorbachev, contributed to their decisions to withdraw from Afghanistan, abandon Communist regimes in Eastern Europe, and allow the Soviet Union to fragment. If the U.S. debt problem goes critical, the United States would be compelled to retrench, reducing its military spending and shedding international commitments. We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. Even though countries such as China, India, and Brazil have profound political, social, demographic, and economic problems, their economies are growing faster than ours, and this could alter the global distribution of power. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world. If U.S. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow, it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge. The closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers, increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another, and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. The stakes are high. In modern history, the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. leadership. By contrast, multi-polar systems have been unstable, with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. American retrenchment could have devastating consequences. Without an American security blanket, regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. Under this scenario, there would be a heightened possibility of arms races, miscalculation, or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict. Alternatively, in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers, weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the United States. Either way, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions.
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Khalilzad 11 Zalmay was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992, “ The Economy and National Security”, 2-8-11, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/259024, CMR
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economic trends pose the most severe threat to the U S position as global leader continuation of trends could lead to a shift from American primacy toward a multi-polar global system, leading in turn to increased geopolitical rivalry and war among great powers the U S would be unable to roll over its outstanding obligations, precipitating a sovereign-debt crisis that would almost certainly compel a radical retrenchment of the U S internationally Such scenarios would reshape the international order economic devastation during World War II led countries to relinquish their empires the U S would be compelled to retrench, reducing its military spending and shed international commitments countries economies are growing faster than ours, and this could alter the global distribution of power. These trends could produce a multi-polar world If U.S. policymakers fail to act it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge The closing of the gap could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers, increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another, and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. The stakes are high the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. leadership , multi-polar systems have been unstable, with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars American retrenchment could have devastating consequences. Without an American security blanket, regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats there would be a heightened possibility of arms races, miscalc or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict. in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers, weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the U S hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions
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d.) Collapse of the US economic power causes nuclear war
| 4,319 | 56 | 2,030 | 661 | 10 | 314 | 0.015129 | 0.475038 |
Politics - Negative - UNT 2013.html5
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North Texas (UNT)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,197 |
Today I join hundreds of leaders in business, finance, technology and policymaking in Silicon Valley for the 2013 Global Technology Symposium. This year’s theme is “Entrepreneurship in the Global World,” a timely subject given the technology community’s leadership in supporting skilled-immigration reform, an issue intertwined with entrepreneurship and America’s standing in the global economy.¶ Entrepreneurship is a key component of “ninja innovation,” a term I coined to describe the principles we must embrace if we’re going to success in business, politics or our personal lives. I look forward to talking more about this important connection at the symposium tonight, but at the core of the discussion is a simple truth: More than being entrepreneurial individuals, we must foster a culture of entrepreneurship in America. That includes finding ways to attract and keep the world’s best and brightest innovators in America to develop products, launch companies, and create jobs.¶ CEOs from AT&T, Cisco, eBay, Facebook, Google, Intel and Yahoo! have led a steady drumbeat in Washington to reform America’s skilled-immigration system. They understand why reform is vital to our nation’s economic well-being.¶ It fuels job creation.¶ A recent study found that the average foreign-born student who graduates from a U.S. university and works in a STEM field – science, technology, engineering and mathematics – will create about 2.62 jobs for American workers.¶ Creating an immigration system that welcomes the world’s best and brightest is not only crucial to our nation but also to the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara economy, home to thousands of STEM jobs. A 2011 Bureau of Labor Statistics report finds that STEM occupations accounted for at least 15 percent of total jobs in this area – that’s more than three times the percentage for the U.S. as a whole.¶ That’s why earlier this month, more than 100 executives from the technology sector and leading innovation advocacy organizations, including my organization, the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA)®, signed a letter to President Obama and Congress urging them to create a more open and flexible U.S. immigration system that embraces highly skilled workers.¶ Cisco Chairman and CEO John Chambers said it best, “America’s success has been based upon its ability to attract the best, brightest, and most ambitious individuals. Our country needs a modern immigration policy that further fosters this culture to help spur continued technological innovation and economic growth.”¶ The problem is clearest in the technology industry because of the incredible shortage of qualified workers. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are tens of thousands of unfilled jobs requiring highly skilled individuals in STEM fields. Among four top tech firms – IBM, Intel, Microsoft and Oracle – there are 10,000 jobs waiting to be filled.¶ Our outdated and inefficient immigration system is a huge contributor to the shortage. Many high-skilled, foreign-born workers want to come to or stay in America and create jobs here, but our restrictive visa laws send them home after they’ve trained in our universities. Silicon Valley has felt the pain of these policies through a drop in the number of startups founded by foreign-born immigrants. In the past seven years, immigrants founded 43.9 percent of startups, down from 52.4 percent in 2005. Pushing these individuals to the back of the immigration line creates an incentive for them to compete against us by working for other companies abroad.¶ Instead, we should implement reforms like the Immigration Innovation Act, which would nearly double the number of H-1B visas for high-skilled foreign workers.¶ Other measures, like the Start-Up Visa Act, introduced in the Senate, would also encourage innovation here in the U.S. while investing in education for those in STEM fields. These policy prescriptions were included in the tech leaders’ letter to President Obama and Congress as ways to start the debate and come to a compromise. But that doesn’t mean that if Congress and the President fail to enact them the technology industry will not surrender its fight for reform.¶ The Startup Act 3.0 would enhance America’s global competitiveness by encouraging more entrepreneurialism and halt the U.S. brain drain by creating a STEM visa program for up to 50,000 immigrants each year who graduate from U.S. institutions with a master’s or Ph.D. in STEM. It would also create an entrepreneur visa for up to 75,000 immigrant entrepreneurs who register a business, hire at least two non-family member employees, and invest in their business within one year of obtaining the visa.¶ These policy prescriptions were included in the tech leaders’ letter ways to start the debate and come to a compromise. If Congress and the President fail to enact them, the technology industry will keep fighting for reform.¶ After all, the understanding that strategic immigration is good for our economy is gaining traction among the broader public as well. A recent survey found that there is strong desire among likely voters to have an open and flexible immigration system that embraces highly skilled workers. It also found broad support for research and development programs and a stronger federal focus on STEM education. This may be because Americans are becoming increasingly worried that we are losing our global advantage. More Americans believe that the next major technological innovation will come from China (43 percent) rather than from America (30 percent).¶ With the support of most Americans and the bold leadership of tech industry executives, skilled immigration reform should be a no-brainer in Washington. Bipartisan reform is an important and remarkably easy way to help create jobs and innovation at home. We need to keep America in a position of global leadership, and reforming our country’s immigration law is the first step.
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Shapiro 3/27 --- president and CEO of the Consumer Electronics Association, the U.S. trade association representing more than 2,000 consumer electronics companies (Gary, “Tech Executives: Immigration Reform a Top Priority”, http://www.forbes.com/sites/garyshapiro/2013/03/27/tech-executives-immigration-reform-a-top-priority/, CMR)
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supporting skilled-immigration reform, an issue intertwined with entrepreneurship and America’s standing in the global economy Entrepreneurship is a key component of “ninja innovation the principle we must embrace we must foster a culture of entrepreneurship in America That includes finding ways to attract and keep the world’s best and brightest innovators in America to develop products, launch companies, and create jobs reform is vital to our nation’s economic well-being It fuels job creation the average foreign-born student who graduates from a U.S. university and works in a STEM field will create 2.62 jobs Our country needs a modern immigration policy that further fosters this culture to help spur continued tech innovation and economic growth there are tens of thousands of unfilled jobs requiring highly skilled individuals in STEM fields Our outdated and inefficient immigration system is a huge contributor to the shortage Many high-skilled, foreign-born workers want to come to or stay in America and create jobs here, but our restrictive visa laws send them home after they’ve trained in our universities Silicon Valley has felt the pain of these policies through a drop in the number of startups founded by foreign-born immigrants immigrants founded 43.9 percent of startups Pushing these individuals to the back of the immigration line creates an incentive for them to compete against us by working for other companies abroad Bipartisan reform is an important and easy way to help create jobs and innovation at home. We need to keep America in a position of global leadership and reforming our immigration law is the first step
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**Note – From the original 1NC, alternative to the new economy impact
| 5,941 | 70 | 1,647 | 932 | 12 | 260 | 0.012876 | 0.27897 |
Politics - Negative - UNT 2013.html5
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North Texas (UNT)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,198 |
Events in Libya are a further reminder for Americans that we stand at a crossroads in our continuing evolution as the world's sole full-service superpower. Unfortunately, we are increasingly seeking change without cost, and shirking from risk because we are tired of the responsibility. We don't know who we are anymore, and our president is a big part of that problem. Instead of leading us, he explains to us. Barack Obama would have us believe that he is practicing strategic patience. But many experts and ordinary citizens alike have concluded that he is actually beset by strategic incoherence -- in effect, a man overmatched by the job. It is worth first examining the larger picture: We live in a time of arguably the greatest structural change in the global order yet endured, with this historical moment's most amazing feature being its relative and absolute lack of mass violence. That is something to consider when Americans contemplate military intervention in Libya, because if we do take the step to prevent larger-scale killing by engaging in some killing of our own, we will not be adding to some fantastically imagined global death count stemming from the ongoing "megalomania" and "evil" of American "empire." We'll be engaging in the same sort of system-administering activity that has marked our stunningly successful stewardship of global order since World War II. Let me be more blunt: As the guardian of globalization, the U.S. military has been the greatest force for peace the world has ever known. Had America been removed from the global dynamics that governed the 20th century, the mass murder never would have ended. Indeed, it's entirely conceivable there would now be no identifiable human civilization left, once nuclear weapons entered the killing equation. But the world did not keep sliding down that path of perpetual war. Instead, America stepped up and changed everything by ushering in our now-perpetual great-power peace. We introduced the international liberal trade order known as globalization and played loyal Leviathan over its spread. What resulted was the collapse of empires, an explosion of democracy, the persistent spread of human rights, the liberation of women, the doubling of life expectancy, a roughly 10-fold increase in adjusted global GDP and a profound and persistent reduction in battle deaths from state-based conflicts. That is what American "hubris" actually delivered. Please remember that the next time some TV pundit sells you the image of "unbridled" American military power as the cause of global disorder instead of its cure. With self-deprecation bordering on self-loathing, we now imagine a post-American world that is anything but. Just watch who scatters and who steps up as the Facebook revolutions erupt across the Arab world. While we might imagine ourselves the status quo power, we remain the world's most vigorously revisionist force. As for the sheer "evil" that is our military-industrial complex, again, let's examine what the world looked like before that establishment reared its ugly head. The last great period of global structural change was the first half of the 20th century, a period that saw a death toll of about 100 million across two world wars. That comes to an average of 2 million deaths a year in a world of approximately 2 billion souls. Today, with far more comprehensive worldwide reporting, researchers report an average of less than 100,000 battle deaths annually in a world fast approaching 7 billion people. Though admittedly crude, these calculations suggest a 90 percent absolute drop and a 99 percent relative drop in deaths due to war. We are clearly headed for a world order characterized by multipolarity, something the American-birthed system was designed to both encourage and accommodate. But given how things turned out the last time we collectively faced such a fluid structure, we would do well to keep U.S. power, in all of its forms, deeply embedded in the geometry to come. To continue the historical survey, after salvaging Western Europe from its half-century of civil war, the U.S. emerged as the progenitor of a new, far more just form of globalization -- one based on actual free trade rather than colonialism. America then successfully replicated globalization further in East Asia over the second half of the 20th century, setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding.
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Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M., Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7, CMR)
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Americans stand at a crossroads in our continuing evolution as the world's sole full-service superpower. As the guardian of globalization the U.S. military has been the greatest force for peace the world has ever known Had America been removed from the global dynamics that governed the 20th century mass murder never would have ended there would now be no identifiable human civilization left, once nuclear weapons entered the killing equation. the world did not keep sliding down that path of perpetual war Instead, America stepped up and changed everything by ushering in our now-perpetual great-power peace We introduced the international liberal trade order known as globalization What resulted was the collapse of empires, an explosion of democracy persistent spread of human rights the doubling of life expectancy 10-fold increase in adjusted global GDP and a profound and persistent reduction in battle deaths from state-based conflicts. calculations suggest a 90 percent absolute drop and a 99 percent relative drop in deaths due to war. we would do well to keep U.S. power, in all of its forms
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Collapse of US leadership causes great power war and extinction
| 4,409 | 64 | 1,105 | 711 | 10 | 176 | 0.014065 | 0.247539 |
Politics - Negative - UNT 2013.html5
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North Texas (UNT)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,199 |
President Barack Obama met with members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus to talk about the issue Wednesday. White House spokesman Jay Carney said in an afternoon briefing that that while passing comprehensive immigration reform will be an “uphill battle,” there is greater momentum for immigration reform.¶ The GOP statement came after House Republicans met behind closed doors late Wednesday afternoon to talk about the next steps on immigration reform. In a joint statement from House leaders after that meeting, they said the House would continue its own approach to immigration reform instead of taking up the Senate bill.¶ “Today, House Republicans affirmed that rather than take up the flawed legislation rushed through the Senate, House committees will continue their work on a step-by-step, commonsense approach to fixing what has long been a broken system,” said the statement from House Speaker John Boehner’s office.¶ Republicans in the Arizona delegation did not immediately return calls Wednesday about the next steps for immigration reform in the House.¶ But Democratic members of the Border Caucus insisted that a comprehensive bill would be better than a piecemeal approach on economic, humanitarian and other fronts.¶ Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Tucson, one of the Hispanic Caucus members who met with Obama earlier Wednesday, said a necessary component of comprehensive immigration reform is a pathway to citizenship and an emphasis on humanitarian efforts.¶ Grijalva said more than 5,700 people have died along the border in the last 10 years, 2,700 in Arizona alone. That calls for humanitarian efforts, like targeting human trafficking, he said.¶ Border Caucus members stressed the economic advantages of comprehensive reform, and the president did likewise in his meeting with Hispanic lawmakers, pointing to a July report on the economic benefits of fixing the immigration system.¶ “It’s about border security, but it’s also about economic security,” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said at the Border Caucus event.¶ Six million American jobs depend on trade from Mexico, which is the nation’s third-largest trading partner, said Rep. Filemon Vela, D-Texas.¶ “The symbolic nature of constructing more fence along the border of a country with whom we have such great business relationships doesn’t make any sense,” Vela said.¶ But amendments to the Senate bill call for $40 billion in border-security improvements, including the addition of 18,000 Border Patrol agents and 700 miles of new fence.¶ Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-Texas, said the House should take some of that $40 billion and redirect it to to economic growth and trade. Doing so would create jobs and generate billions of dollars in economic activity, he said.¶ “And really at the end of the day, Republican or Democrat, that’s why we’re here – to create jobs, to create opportunities, to create economic growth,” O’Rourke said.¶ Democrats agreed with Carney that there is some momentum behind reform efforts. It’s time for the House to to continue that momentum in a bipartisan manner, they said.¶ “Two weeks ago the Senate passed a bipartisan bill,” Pelosi said. “We hope now that the House will act, again in a bipartisan way.”
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Eaton 7/10 (Emilie, “Dems push as GOP weighs next steps on immigration reform”, Cronkite News Service, http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report/071013_dems_immig_reform/dems-push-as-gop-weighs-next-steps-immigration-reform/, CMR)
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Carney said while passing c i r will be an “uphill battle,” there is greater momentum for immigration reform at the end of the day why we’re here – to create jobs opportunities economic growth there is some momentum behind reform efforts. It’s time for the House to continue that momentum in a bipartisan manner, Two weeks ago the Senate passed a bipartisan bill We hope now that the House will act, again in a bipartisan way.”
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There’s momentum for passage but sustained bipartisanship is key
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Politics - Negative - UNT 2013.html5
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North Texas (UNT)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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