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But backers of the SEC requirement oppose the exemption in the House bill and are concerned the bill is part of a wider effort to repeal the SEC rule. The rule will require SEC-listed oil, natural gas and mining companies to disclose payments to foreign governments related to projects in their countries, such as money for production licenses, royalties and so forth. It is aimed at undoing the “resource curse,” in which some impoverished countries in Africa and elsewhere are plagued by corruption and conflict alongside their energy and mineral wealth. Industry groups say it will create costly burdens and hinder competitiveness, placing U.S companies at a disadvantage when competing for contracts against state-owned Russian and Chinese firms. A spokeswoman for Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), the energy committee’s top Republican, said the absence of language on the SEC rule was for procedural reasons. “Because this is an energy bill and Dodd-Frank falls outside of our committee’s jurisdiction, we didn’t address it in this bill,” spokeswoman Megan Moskowitz said.
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Geman 13 (Ben, reporter for the Hill, Senate bill on US-Mexico drilling lacks Dodd-Frank exemption, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/296451-senate-bill-on-us-mexico-drilling-lacks-dodd-frank-exemption-#ixzz2arSr6Vuq, 4/26/13)
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backers of the SEC requirement oppose the exemption in the House bill and are concerned the bill is part of a wider effort to repeal the SEC rule. The rule will require SEC-listed oil companies to disclose payments to foreign governments Industry groups say it will create costly burdens and hinder competitiveness, placing U.S companies at a disadvantage when competing for contracts against state-owned Russian and Chinese firms. Murkowski the energy committee’s top Republican, said the absence of language falls outside of our committee’s jurisdiction
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Creates divides over backers and industry- destroys bipartisanship
| 1,076 | 66 | 555 | 168 | 8 | 85 | 0.047619 | 0.505952 |
Politics Links Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,601 |
Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) suggests that House Republicans have a thing or two to learn from the broad coalition of immigration reform advocates who put aside their differences to push for immigration reform.¶ ¶ “It seems to me the only place where people are not ready to set aside partisanship is in the House of Representatives — where people are not ready to sit down and say, ‘Tell me your side, I’ll tell you mine, let’s compromise and let’s find a solution,’” he said at a press conference Wednesday.¶ ¶ In the last few weeks, Gutierrez has been calling on House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) to allow a vote on immigration reform legislation on the House floor. He said that there are dozens of House Republicans who are “ready to join with Democrats for comprehensive immigration reform.”¶ ¶ Among those GOP leaders he mentioned are Reps. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, Mike Coffman of Colorado, John Carter of Texas, David Valadao of California and Sam Johnson of Texas.¶ ¶ “All we need is a vote on the floor of the House and we will begin to solve the problem of our broken immigration system,” Gutierrez said.¶ ¶ But Boehner has said he won’t allow a vote unless a majority of House Republicans supports the legislation.¶ Last week, Boehner said his party is committed to working on “a step-by-step approach” on immigration reform “to ensure that the American people have confidence that we’re addressing these issues openly and honestly.”¶ ¶ This “step-by-step approach” has resulted in the House taking a much slower pace on legislative action related to immigration reform compared to the Senate, which passed its own comprehensive immigration reform bill in late June.¶ ¶ Gutierrez said Wednesday he and others from the Democratic Caucus want the House to pick up the pace. To help make that happen, House Democrats agreed during a Wednesday meeting with President Barack Obama to invite Republicans to speak with them about immigration reform at town hall meetings and such events during the August recess.¶ ¶ Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) said that while House Democrats will be doing their part to push for immigration reform during the August recess, immigration reform advocates also have an important role to play. He called on them to “speak up and speak out about supporting and pushing for comprehensive immigration reform” at events hosted by House Republicans.¶ ¶ “Be respectful, be kind, be courteous, but please firmly let them know that this is something that is important to all of us, that this matters to the nation,” Castro said.
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Nevarez 8-1 (Griselda Nevarez, journalist, Voxxi, has reported for various news outlets throughout the country, “House should learn from bipartisan immigration reform advocates,” column, Voxxi, August 1, 2013, http://www.voxxi.com/gutierrez-immigration-reform-advocates/)
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House Republicans have a thing or two to learn from the broad coalition of immigration reform advocates who put aside their differences to push for immigration reform. the only place where people are not ready to set aside partisanship is in the House of Representatives there are dozens of House Republicans who are “ready to join with Democrats for comprehensive immigration reform.” All we need is a vote on the floor of the House and we will begin to solve the problem of our broken immigration system Boehner said his party is committed to working on “a step-by-step approach” on immigration reform “to ensure that the American people have confidence that we’re addressing these issues openly and honestly.” the Democratic Caucus want the House to pick up the pace House Democrats agreed during a Wednesday meeting with Obama to invite Republicans to speak with them about immigration reform Democrats will be doing their part to push for immigration reform
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Bipartisanship key to immigration
| 2,561 | 34 | 964 | 429 | 4 | 159 | 0.009324 | 0.370629 |
Politics Links Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,602 |
After the 2012 elections, it seemed there was one issue that could unite Republicans and Democrats: reforming our nation's broken immigration system so that more people like my grandparents could live the American Dream.¶ ¶ Fast-forward eight months. In the Senate, the hope for bipartisan cooperation is now reality. By a wide margin -- one that is unheard-of in today's polarized Washington -- the Senate passed a comprehensive immigration bill that guarantees our nation's borders are secure, protects American workers and offers undocumented immigrants an earned path to citizenship that is tough but fair.¶ ¶ The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office reports (PDF) that comprehensive immigration reform will strengthen our economy and reduce the deficit, so not only is reform the right thing to do, it's also fiscally sound policy.¶ ¶ The only obstacles to finally fixing our broken immigration system are Speaker John Boehner and House Republicans. If House Republicans fail to act, voters who care about this issue -- especially our growing Hispanic population -- will know they can't count on House Republicans.¶ ¶ Instead of moving forward in the weeks since the Senate bill passed, House Republicans have allowed intolerant voices to remain the face of their party on immigration. People like Rep. Steve King, who has compared immigrants to dogs and DREAM Act-eligible children to drug runners, don't deserve a place on the Judiciary Committee that will decide the future of immigration reform.¶ ¶ If House Republicans are serious about having a constructive debate, they will remove King from his position of authority. While it is true that Boehner's House has given us little reason to be optimistic and King's rhetoric is contrary to the principles that make this country great, I still have hope for the future of immigration reform.¶ ¶ There are several House Republicans whose constituents will demand progress on immigration, and House Democrats want to work with them on finally achieve lasting reform. We can do this, but only if we do it together.¶ ¶ We all came to Congress knowing we would face hard choices. For Boehner, that hard choice means abandoning the foolish Hastert Rule, which requires that "the majority of the majority" party support legislation before it can be brought to a vote in the whole House, an artificial barrier to bipartisan cooperation. In effect, the rule keeps the speaker in power while preventing Republicans and Democrats from coming together. And most troubling, it thwarts the will of the people, a consequence that is fundamentally at odds with who we are as Americans
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Israel 8-1 (Steve Israel, Democratic representative from New York and chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, “GOP, open door to immigration reform,” column, CNN opinion, August 1, 2013, http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/01/opinion/israel-immigration-reform/index.html)
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there was one issue that could unite Republicans and Democrats: reforming our immigration system the hope for bipartisan cooperation is now reality the Senate passed a comprehensive immigration bill that guarantees our nation's borders are secure, protects American workers and offers undocumented immigrants an earned path to citizenship that is tough but fair. The only obstacles are House Republicans If House Republicans fail to act, voters -- will know they can't count on House Republicans. If House Republicans are serious about having a constructive debate, they will remove King from his position of authority. , I still have hope for the future of immigration reform. There are several House Republicans whose constituents will demand progress on immigration, and House Democrats want to work with them on finally achieve lasting reform. We can do this, but only if we do it together.
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Bipartisanship is the only obstacle – its key to immigration
| 2,634 | 60 | 900 | 423 | 10 | 141 | 0.023641 | 0.333333 |
Politics Links Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,603 |
Today, lawmakers get fewer surprises when they return home. Social media give constituents the ability to make their views known instantly, even constantly, and have allowed special interest groups to mount campaigns within hours, all of which makes a shocking eruption over a single issue unlikely.¶ ¶ But if it does happen, immigration has the potential to create that kind of summer heat. There’s a clear split between those who insist on secure borders while being wary of a path to citizenship and those who see the two proceeding almost simultaneously.¶ ¶ The Senate passed the comprehensive approach in June, but leaders in the House of Representatives are pursuing a piecemeal approach that features border security first. They remain reluctant to back any path to citizenship for most of the nation’s 11 million immigrants who are here illegally.¶ ¶ Both sides have plotted an active August, full of protests and participation in town hall meetings. But there’s a big difference between immigration this year and health care four years ago.¶ ¶ In 2009, Democrats controlled both houses of Congress and the White House, so the opposition was more motivated to make itself heard through grass-roots efforts. This year, Republicans control the House, and they hardly need reminders to slow the push for overhauling the immigration system.¶ ¶ “The feeling in 2009 was that there was this gigantic train moving down the tracks. There was a sense of urgency and magnitude,” said Roy Beck, the founder of NumbersUSA, an immigration reduction organization. “I don’t think that feeling is there now on immigration.”
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Lightman 8-2 (David Lightman, McClatchy Washington Bureau, “Congress taking rhetoric, and partisanship, home for recess,” Friday, August 2, 2013, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/08/02/198422/congress-taking-rhetoric-and-partisanship.html)
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immigration has the potential to create summer heat There’s a clear split between those who insist on secure borders while being wary of a path to citizenship and those who see the two proceeding almost simultaneously. leaders in the House of Representatives are pursuing a piecemeal approach that features border security first. They remain reluctant to back any path to citizenship for most of the nation’s 11 million immigrants who are here illegally Both sides have plotted an active August, full of protests The feeling in 2009 was that there was this gigantic train moving down the tracks. There was a sense of urgency and magnitude I don’t think that feeling is there now on immigration
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Bipart link is non-unique – partisanship now over immigration
| 1,617 | 61 | 695 | 261 | 9 | 116 | 0.034483 | 0.444444 |
Politics Links Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,604 |
The agreement marked the last major obstacle for a bipartisan group of eight senators seeking consensus on a broad rewrite of U.S. immigration laws, as they prepare to unveil legislation as soon as next week. Other issues remain, such as visas for farm workers, as part of a package that would offer a possible path to citizenship for many of the 11 million undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. The lawmakers still face a sales job in the Senate, as well as reconciliation with the Republican-run House. Perhaps more than the details of a still tentative agreement among union, business and Senate leaders, observers say, politics brought the two sides together. “It was a prisoners’ dilemma,” said Chris Newman, legal director for the National Day Laborer Organizing Network in Los Angeles. “Both the chamber and organized labor stood to be accused of the crime of killing comprehensive immigration reform.”
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Przybyla 13 (Heidi, reporter at Bloomberg, Low-Skilled Visas: Cap Key to Deal, http://go.bloomberg.com/political-capital/2013-04-02/low-skilled-visas-cap-key-to-deal/, 4/2/13)
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major obstacle for a bipartisan group of eight senators seeking consensus on a broad rewrite of U.S. immigration laws issues remain, such as visas for farm workers face a sales job in the Senate, as well as the Republican-run House. a still tentative agreement politics brought the two sides together. “It was a prisoners’ dilemma “Both the chamber and organized labor stood to be accused of the crime of killing comprehensive immigration reform.”
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Ag reform is a political obstacle- compromise shows
| 915 | 51 | 447 | 149 | 8 | 73 | 0.053691 | 0.489933 |
Politics Links Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,605 |
“Unfortunately, the politics of immigration are so venomous and so hot that even the small issue of worker visas has been very difficult to move forward,” he said, adding there’s still a chance the exemption could be added as a rider on an appropriations bill before the 110th Congress adjourns for the year. “I still have some hope we’ll be able to get it done this year.” Cont… Salazar added that a permanent fix for the lack of H2B, H1B (skilled worker) and H2A (agricultural worker) visas would be part of any immigration reform package. But ski industry officials say it’s unfair to lump them into the overall immigration debate. “That’s the other problem is there are groups who want comprehensive immigration reform, not just this one piece, but that really misses the mark because these are non-immigrant visas,” NSAA’s Link said. “These are not people who are looking for a path to citizenship. They’re here for a limited timeframe, and they go back to their country. That’s a requirement of the program. So it’s like apples and oranges to mix in an amnesty debate with an H2B visa debate. Unfortunately, the details are often lost in the political debate.”
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Williams 8 (David, Colorado Independent, 7/11, http://coloradoindependent.com/3930/ski-and-tourism-worker-visas-held-hostage-in-immigration-reform-deadlock)
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“Unfortunately, the politics of immigration are so venomous and so hot that even the small issue of worker visas has been very difficult to move forward Salazar added fix for the lack of H2A (agricultural worker) visas would be part of any immigration reform package there are groups who want comprehensive immigration reform, not just this one piece, but that really misses the mark because these are non-immigrant visas “These are not people who are looking for a path to citizenship So it’s like apples and oranges to mix in an amnesty debate with an H2B visa debate. Unfortunately, the details are often lost in the political debate.”
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H2A Visas Drains Capital – sparks fights over piecemeal and amnesty
| 1,168 | 67 | 640 | 200 | 11 | 108 | 0.055 | 0.54 |
Politics Links Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,606 |
FRUIT OF THEIR POLITICAL LABOR: While you're off grilling your brats or watching college football, consider this Labor Day that labor unions aren't pausing when it comes to politics. Among political action committee contribution this election cycle to federal political candidates, four of the top 10 entities are labor union PACs: the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers; the Operating Engineers Union; the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees; and the International Association of Fire Fighters. When overall PAC expenditures are considered this election cycle, six of the top 10 are labor union PACs. They are: the Service Employees International Union; American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees; International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers; Teamsters Union; American Federation of Teachers and the Laborers Union. Get ready for a shocking fact here: The overwhelming majority of the contributions directly from labor union interests to political candidates benefit Democrats.
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Levinthal 10 (Dave, Center for responsive politics, 9/6, http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2010/09/your-daily-dose-of-news-29.html)
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labor unions aren't pausing when it comes to politics Among political action committee contribution this election cycle four of the top 10 entities are labor union PACs When overall PAC expenditures are considered this election cycle, six of the top 10 are labor union PACs The overwhelming majority of the contributions directly from labor union interests to political candidates benefit Democrats
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Labor controls dem votes – campaign contributions
| 1,038 | 49 | 398 | 148 | 7 | 61 | 0.047297 | 0.412162 |
Politics Links Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,607 |
In The Future of Organized Labor in American Politics, Peter L. Francia discusses the effects of Sweeney's controversial tenure as president and assesses labor's influence on American political elections and legislation. Drawing on interviews with union and business leaders, as well as campaign-finance and public-opinion data, Francia argues that Sweeney has employed a more effective and expansive grassroots political operation than his predecessors. He challenges critics who dismiss Sweeney's efforts as a failure but cautions that the decline in union membership presents a serious crisis for the labor movement. When unions emphasize “grassroots” strategies they can effectively compete against the financial power of big business and can make a significant difference in congressional politics. Francia analyzes organized labor's political activities, its coalitions with other interest groups, and its influence on voter turnout, election results, and votes in Congress. He also examines the effects of Sweeney's embrace of progressive causes and labor's increasing willingness to challenge Democrats who vote against labor's interests.
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Francia 6 (Peter, Prof Poli Sci @ East Carolina, http://cup.columbia.edu/book/978-0-231-13070-7/the-future-of-organized-labor-in-american-politics)
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labor's influence on American political legislation has employed a more effective and expansive grassroots political operation When unions emphasize “grassroots” strategies they can effectively compete against the financial power of big business and can make a significant difference in congressional politics He also examines labor's increasing willingness to challenge Democrats who vote against labor's interests.
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Labor has huge influence – successfully counterbalances big business
| 1,146 | 68 | 416 | 161 | 9 | 55 | 0.055901 | 0.341615 |
Politics Links Supplement - Northwestern 2013 6WeekSeniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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3,608 |
But what struck me this week is that we have a new dangerous drilling zone right on our doorstep - Cuba. Estimates suggest that the island nation has reserves of anywhere from 5 billion to 20 billion barrels of oil. The high end of those estimates would put Cuba among the top dozen oil producers in the world.
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Zakaria PhD in Political Science 2011 Fareed “Why our Cuba embargo could lead to another Gulf oil disaster” CNN World 9/19 http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/19/why-our-cuba-policy-could-lead-to-another-gulf-oil-spill/
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we have a new dangerous drilling zone right on our doorstep - Cuba. the island nation has reserves of anywhere from 5 billion to 20 billion barrels of oil. The high end of those estimates would put Cuba among the top dozen oil producers in the world.
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US expertise is key to prevent an oil spill
| 310 | 44 | 250 | 58 | 9 | 47 | 0.155172 | 0.810345 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,609 |
WASHINGTON — As exploratory oil drilling is set to begin in December off the coast of Cuba, the U.S. government acknowledged Tuesday that because of chilly diplomatic relations, it could have a limited ability to control the response to an oil spill there, let alone one the magnitude of last year's Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Tampa Bay Times 10/18/2011 “Oil spill from drilling in Cuban waters could have limited U.S. response” http://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/water/oil-spill-from-drilling-in-cuban-waters-could-have-limited-us-response/1197425
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As exploratory oil drilling is set to begin off the coast of Cuba, the U.S. government acknowledged Tuesday that because of chilly diplomatic relations, it could have a limited ability to control the response to an oil spill there,
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The embargo limits and delays US response to spills – the plan is necessary for sustained involvement in safety and regulations across the region
| 349 | 146 | 231 | 59 | 24 | 39 | 0.40678 | 0.661017 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,610 |
To protect the national interest — and for the sake of Florida's beaches and the Gulf of Mexico's ecosystem — it is time to stop sticking our heels in the sand when it comes to U.S.-Cuba policy. Before the end of the year, a Chinese-made drilling platform known as Scarabeo 9 is expected to arrive in the Gulf. Once it is there, Cuba and its foreign partners, including Spain’s Repsol, will begin using it to drill for oil in waters deeper than Deepwater Horizon’s infamous Macondo well. The massive rig, manufactured to comply with U.S.-content restrictions at a cost of $750 million, will cost Repsol and other companies $407,000 per day to lease for exploration. They are taking this financial risk because Cuba needs the oil and its partners — Spain, Norway, Russia, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Canada, Angola, Venezuela, and possibly China — believe that drilling in waters said to contain undiscovered reserves of approximately 5 billion barrels of oil is good business. In virtually every other country in the world, developments like these would prompt high-level discussions about how to exploit these resources safely or to anticipate a crisis were a disaster to strike. Experts who have studied the currents say a spill in Cuban waters would send 90 percent of the oil into the Keys and up the East Coast of Florida. But the embargo leaves Florida’s sensitive coastal resources defenseless. Due to the fact that the drilling involves Cuba, American companies and workers cannot lend their expertise to what could be a risky operation. U.S. economic sanctions prevent our private sector from helping Cuba drill safely and paralyze the U.S. government, which ought to be convening bilateral discussions on best practices and coordinating disaster response. In fact, the U.S. has no emergency response agreement with Cuba for oil spills. While some specific licenses have been granted to permit U.S. firms to conduct limited transactions with Cuba, current sanctions bar the United States from deploying the kind of clean-up equipment, engineers, spare parts for blow-out prevention, chemical dispersants, and rigs to drill relief wells that would be needed to address an oil crisis involving Cuba. One welcomed development came earlier this month, when William Reilly, a former head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and co-chair of the Commission that investigated the Deepwater Horizon disaster, led a group of experts to Cuba to take a look at their plans. While the administration has done well giving permission to Mr. Reilly, as well as to other experts, to discuss the problem with Cuban counterparts, it should move more aggressively to work with the Cuban government to cooperate on plans for safe drilling and responding to a possible crisis. Rather than moving forward, some in the U.S. Congress would make the problem worse. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-R), who criticized Mr. Reilly’s visit to Cuba as “giving credibility to the regime’s dangerous oil-drilling scheme,” has offered legislation to try and stop Repsol from drilling. Rep. Vern Buchanan (FL-R) would deny Repsol the right to drill in U.S. waters if it helped Cuba drill in its waters. Thirty-four members of both parties have written Repsol directly, threatening the company if it drills with Cuba. Yet this tactic can’t work. Even if they could deter Repsol from drilling – which is unlikely – they cannot stop Cuba and partners from countries like China, Russia, and Venezuela, from using the rig and searching for oil. At some point, it is likely that drilling will begin and the United States ought to do what it can to prepare for that eventuality. The U.S. government should facilitate access by Cuba and its drilling partners to the resources they need to drill safely. President Obama should instruct the Treasury Department to issue a blanket general license now that would allow private industry to provide what oil expert Jorge Piñon calls ”any conceivable response” in the event of a crisis.
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Stephens and Colvin 11 (Sarah – Executive Director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas, and Jake – Vice President for Global Trade Issues at the National Foreign Trade Council, “US-Cuba policy, and the race for oil drilling”, 9/29, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/184661-us-cuba-policy-and-the-race-for-oil-drilling)
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To protect the national interest and for the sake of the Gulf of Mexico's ecosystem it is time to stop sticking our heels in the sand when it comes to U.S.-Cuba policy In virtually every other country in the developments like these would prompt high-level discussions about how to exploit these resources safely Experts who have studied the currents say a spill in Cuban waters would send 90 percent of the oil into the Keys and up the East Coast of Florida Due to the fact that the drilling involves Cuba American companies and workers cannot lend their expertise to what could be a risky operation U.S. economic sanctions prevent our private sector from helping Cuba drill safely While some specific licenses have been granted current sanctions bar the U S from deploying the kind of clean-up equipment, engineers, spare parts for blow-out prevention, chemical dispersants, and rigs to drill relief wells that would be needed to address an oil crisis involving Cuba the administration should move more aggressively to work with the Cuban government to cooperate on plans for safe drilling The U.S. government should facilitate access by Cuba and its drilling partners to the resources they need to drill safely. Obama should instruct the Treasury Department to issue a blanket general license now that would allow private industry to provide what oil expert calls ”any conceivable response” in the event of a crisis.
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Cuban oil spills collapse Floridian ecosystems – the plan prevents and mitigates the impact to spills
| 3,997 | 101 | 1,418 | 652 | 16 | 235 | 0.02454 | 0.360429 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,611 |
"Biodiversity hot spots are areas where endemic species with small ranges are concentrated. Not all are in the tropics, but most are. Hot spots can be extraordinarily concentrated; thousands of species may be found within a relatively small area. Species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to impacts. Nature has put her eggs in a small number of baskets, and we are in danger of dropping them. On land, worldwide 25 areas are recognized as hotspots which contain concentrations of endemic species that are disproportionately vulnerable to extinction from regional habitat destruction. These areas retain less than 10% of their original habitat and have unusually high human population densities." (Pimm, 2001) The Florida Everglades contains one of the highest concentrations of species vulnerable to extinction in the United States. The 5,000-square-kilometre wetland in southern Florida is home to at least 60 endangered species, including the American crocodile (Mason, 2003). And the area retains less than 10% of its original habitat as the human population density of southern Florida threatens to over-run one of the most unique habitats in North America. Nourished by the rain soaked Kissimmee River Basin and stretching south from 700 square mile Lake Okeechobee (left center), the Everglades are a wide slow moving river of marsh and saw grass covering some 4,500 square miles, flowing slowly towards the mangrove estuaries of the Gulf of Mexico (right below center). The Everglades are a unique habitat; there are no other everglades in the world. No other place combines a subtropical climate, a broad, shallow river, and a stunning diversity of plants and animals into such a complex and fragile ecosystem. No other place is so dramatically defined by annual rhythms of drought and flood, fire and sunshine and torrential rain. Everglades National Park is the largest remaining subtropical wilderness in the United States. Its abundant wildlife includes rare and endangered species, such as the American crocodile, Florida panther, and West Indian manatee. Alligators, like the one shown above, are an important part of this ecosystem, and are regarded as a “keystone” species of the Everglades. The Florida Everglades ecosystem is also the only place in the world where alligators and crocodiles exist side by side. The American crocodile, shown above, was listed as an endangered species in Florida in 1975. It’s numbers had dropped dramatically because of hunting and loss of habitat. Today, it’s estimated that between 500 to 1,200 crocodiles live in Florida, up from approximately 200 to 400 two decades ago. They are found in the U.S. in the remaining tidal marshes in the Everglades along Florida Bay and in the Florida Keys. Though the species resemble one another, crocodiles vary greatly from the more than 1 million alligators found in Florida. Crocodile color ranges from olive green to gray compared with the black hue of alligators. Their snouts are narrower, and the bottom and top teeth are visible from the side when the mouth is closed; only the upper teeth are seen on an alligator. Adult crocodiles are 7 to 15 feet long and weigh 150 to 450 pounds. Decidedly less aggressive than the infamous Nile and Australian crocodiles, American crocodiles are rarely seen by people. The West Indian manatee is a large, herbivorous, aquatic mammal. These gentle creatures are endangered throughout their range. High annual mortality, primarily associated with human activity, as well as a low reproductive rate and loss of habitat continue to keep the number of manatees low and threaten the species’ future. The manatee population has long been the focus of battles between conservationists and boaters. Boating kills dozens of manatees a year, crushing or gashing the slow-moving mammals as they rise to the surface to breathe. Red tide algae blooms have been another cause of mortality for manatees along Florida's south-central Gulf Coast. The one-cell organism that causes red tide releases a toxin when it dies, sickening manatees. Once the toxin is in the animal, it affects their coordination and causes paralysis (Flewelling, et al., 2005). "Manatees on Florida’s Gulf coast are frequently exposed to brevetoxin, a potent neurotoxin produced by the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis, during red tide events. In 1996, 151 manatees were documented to have died in southwest Florida from brevetoxicosis. This epizootic was particularly detrimental to the manatee population because more adults were killed than any other age class. Other red tide epizootics in 1982, 2002, 2003, and 2005 resulted in the deaths of 37, 34, 96, and (preliminarily) 81 manatees, respectively. There is no clear evidence that these events have been increasing in frequency along Florida’s coast, but certainly the impact on the manatee population has increased over the past two decades. Viewed globally, harmful algal blooms have been increasing over the past 25 years in frequency and in their impacts on the economy, public health, and marine life." In addition to rare and endangered species, the Everglades are rightly famous for the profusion of bird species found there, with 347 species recorded within the Park boundaries. The mangrove estuaries of Florida Bay, in particular, are a breeding habitat for Roseate Spoonbills, Wood Stork, White Ibis, Glossy Ibis, and eleven species of egrets and herons. Once, water flowed freely from Lake Okeechobee to Florida Bay in a “river of grass”, Florida environmentalist Marjory Stoneman Douglas's poetic phrase. It is a river that is 120 miles long and 50 miles wide, but less than a foot deep. In this flat landscape, even a few inches of elevation meant the difference between wet marsh and dry ground. Today, the Everglades is an ecosystem in danger of extinction. Canals and levees capture and divert its water for human use, including drinking water, irrigation, and flood control. Often, too much water is withheld from the Everglades during the wet season, or too much is diverted into it during the winter drought, disrupting the natural cycles of feeding and nesting which depend on these patterns. Much of the time the water is contaminated by pollutants.
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Alles 7 (David L. Professor of Biology – Western Washington University, “Biodiversity Hot Spots: The Florida Everglades”, 3-7-2007, http://www.biol.wwu.edu/trent/alles/Everglades.pdf)
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Biodiversity hot spots are areas where endemic species with small ranges are concentrated The Florida Everglades contains one of the highest concentrations of species vulnerable to extinction in the United States. The Everglades are a unique habitat; there are no other everglades in the world No other place combines a and a stunning diversity of plants and animals into such a complex and fragile ecosystem Its abundant wildlife includes rare and endangered species, such as the American crocodile Alligators, like the one shown above, are an important part of this ecosystem, and are regarded as a “keystone” species of the Everglades The West Indian manatee is a large, herbivorous, aquatic mammal. These gentle creatures are endangered throughout their range Red tide algae blooms have been another cause of mortality for manatees Viewed globally, harmful algal blooms have been increasing over the past 25 years in frequency and in their impacts on the economy, public health, and marine life the Everglades is an ecosystem in danger of extinction
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Florida is a unique biodiversity hotspot
| 6,231 | 40 | 1,053 | 993 | 6 | 167 | 0.006042 | 0.168177 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,612 |
Defending U.S. Interests An oil well blowout in Cuban waters would almost certainly require a U.S. response. Without changes in current U.S. law, however, that response would undoubtedly come far more slowly than is desirable. The Coast Guard would be barred from deploying highly experienced manpower, specially designed booms, skimming equipment and vessels, and dispersants. U.S. offshore gas and oil companies would also be barred from using well-capping stacks, remotely operated submersibles, and other vital technologies. Although a handful of U.S. spill responders hold licenses to work with Repsol, their licenses do not extend to well capping or relief drilling. The result of a slow response to a Cuban oil spill would be greater, perhaps catastrophic, economic and environmental damage to Florida and the Southeast. Efforts to rewrite current law and policy toward Cuba, and encouraging cooperation with its government, could antagonize groups opposed to improved relations with the Castro regime. They might protest any decision allowing U.S. federal agencies to assist Cuba or letting U.S. companies operate in Cuban territory. However, taking sensible steps to prepare for a potential accident at an oil well in Cuban waters would not break new ground or materially alter broader U.S. policy toward Cuba. For years, Washington has worked with Havana on issues of mutual concern. The United States routinely coordinates with Cuba on search and rescue operations in the Straits of Florida as well as to combat illicit drug trafficking and migrant smuggling. During the hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides Cuba with information on Caribbean storms. The recommendations proposed here are narrowly tailored to the specific challenges that a Cuban oil spill poses to the United States. They would not help the Cuban economy or military. What they would do is protect U.S. territory and property from a potential danger emanating from Cuba. Cuba will drill for oil in its territorial waters with or without the blessing of the United States. Defending against a potential oil spill requires a modicum of advance coordination and preparation with the Cuban government, which need not go beyond spill-related matters. Without taking these precautions, the United States risks a second Deepwater Horizon, this time from Cuba.
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Bert and Clayton 12 (Captain Melissa –2011-2012 Military Fellow, U.S. Coast Guard, and Blake – Fellow for Energy and National Security, “Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill”, March, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515)
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An oil well blowout in Cuban waters would certainly require a U.S. response. Without changes in current U.S. law that response would come far more slowly than is desirable U.S. offshore gas and oil companies would be barred from using well-capping stacks, remotely operated submersibles, and other vital technologies The result of a slow response to a Cuban oil spill would be greater, perhaps catastrophic environmental damage to Florida and the Southeast Efforts to rewrite current law could antagonize groups opposed to improved relations with the Castro regime. Cuba will drill for oil in its territorial waters with or without the blessing of the U S Defending against a potential oil spill requires a modicum of advance coordination Without taking these precautions, the United States risks a second Deepwater Horizon, this time from Cuba
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Absent the plan any response to a spill would be too slow – advanced coordination is key
| 2,381 | 89 | 845 | 365 | 17 | 134 | 0.046575 | 0.367123 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,613 |
Washington cannot count on the technical know-how of Cuba's unseasoned oil industry to address a spill on its own. Oil industry experts doubt that it has a strong understanding of how to prevent an offshore oil spill or stem a deep-water well blowout. Moreover, the site where the first wells will be drilled is a tough one for even seasoned response teams to operate in. Unlike the calm Gulf of Mexico, the surface currents in the area where Repsol will be drilling move at a brisk three to four knots, which would bring oil from Cuba's offshore wells to the Florida coast within six to ten days. Skimming or burning the oil may not be feasible in such fast-moving water. The most, and possibly only, effective method to respond to a spill would be surface and subsurface dispersants. If dispersants are not applied close to the source within four days after a spill, uncontained oil cannot be dispersed, burnt, or skimmed, which would render standard response technologies like containment booms ineffective.
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Bert and Clayton 12 (Captain Melissa –2011-2012 Military Fellow, U.S. Coast Guard, and Blake – Fellow for Energy and National Security, “Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill”, March, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515)
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Washington cannot count on the technical know-how of Cuba's unseasoned oil industry to address a spill on its own experts doubt that it has a strong understanding of how to prevent an offshore oil spill or stem a deep-water well blowout the site where the first wells will be drilled is a tough one for even seasoned response teams to operate in Unlike the calm Gulf of Mexico, the surface currents will be drilling move at a brisk three to four knots, which would bring oil from Cuba's offshore wells to the Florida coast within six to ten days Skimming or burning the oil may not be feasible in such fast-moving water. If dispersants are not applied close to the source within four days after a spill uncontained oil cannot be dispersed, burnt, or skimmed which would render standard response technologies ineffective.
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US expertise is essential to prevent and contain spills
| 1,010 | 56 | 820 | 171 | 9 | 142 | 0.052632 | 0.830409 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,614 |
In a few months Spanish oil company Repsol will start drilling for oil off the coast of Cuba, in a spot just 70 miles south of Key West. Soon Repsol–and its JV partners Norway’s Statoil and India’s ONGC–will be joined by rigs from PetroVietnam, Malaysia’s Petronas and Venezuela’s PDVSA. But you won’t see any U.S. companies there. Inexplicably, the U.S. maintains its economic embargo against the Castro regime.This wrong-headed policy represents a dangerous threat to the environment and a huge missed opportunity to the U.S. oil industry. The U.S. embargo will do nothing to prevent oil drilling from taking place in Cuban waters. But it will prevent that work from being done by the most experienced companies with the highest-quality equipment. Norway’s Statoil is a proven operator with a long history in the North Sea and the Gulf. The rest of those companies are just getting started offshore. A group of U.S. lawmakers in September urged Repsol (ticker: REPYY.PK) to call off its Cuba plans or face the threat of U.S. lawsuits. Repsol wisely called that bluff. At least the Obama administration is doing something to ensure that Repsol’s drilling rig is up to snuff. According to an excellent article from Bloomberg today, Repsol’s Chinese-built Scarabeo 9 rig will soon by boarded by four U.S. inspectors (two from the Coast Guard, two from the Dept. of Interior) who will do what they can to check out the rig and watch some drills. But, according to the article, there will be real limits to what the inspectors can inspect. They won’t get to check the rig’s all-important blowout preventor, or the well casing or drilling fluids that are to be used. Though the U.S. inspectors will discuss any concerns they have with Repsol, they will have no enforcement authority. Although the offshore industry’s best service companies and parts manufacturers are right here on the U.S. Gulf coast, Repsol will have to train its people and scrounge for spare parts from the rest of the world. But here’s something that completely blows my mind. The administration, again, according to the Bloomberg article, has granted some U.S. companies the license to respond to an oil spill were it to occur in Cuban waters. The government won’t say how many companies have that license or who they are, but there’s at least two of them: Wild Well Control and Helix Energy Solutions Group. Helix plans to stage a subsea containment cap on the U.S. coast so it can quickly respond to any Cuban blowout. Of course it’s smart and safe for the U.S. government to put defensive measures in place in the event of a spill, but the message to the industry is clear: we refuse to give superior U.S. operators the license to drill for oil in Cuba, but we want to make sure you’re ready to clean up any problems. And the message to Cuba: we’re not going to let you use our engineers, just our janitors. Knowing that a top-notch American clean-up crew is on standby in case of a blowout is not a big incentive for Cuba to keep its own regulators on top of things. Think about Cuba in relation to U.S. oil adventures in the rest of the world. Even if Cuba really were a tyrannical threat to U.S. interests, there’s myriad countries where U.S. oil companies have done business that are no more democratic than Cuba. They include Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Burma, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and Kazakhstan. The Castros’ days as rulers of Cuba are numbered. The embargo stick hasn’t brought regime change, and has only forced Cuba into the arms of autocrats like Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. Better to use the carrot of capitalism to gradually bring Cuba into the U.S. sphere of influence. The oil industry is a great place to start.
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Helman 11 (Christopher – Forbes, “U.S. Should Drop Cuba Embargo For Oil Exploration”, 12/12, http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/12/12/u-s-should-drop-cuba-embargo-for-oil-exploration/)
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Repsol will start drilling for oil off the coast of Cuba But you won’t see any U.S. companies there the U.S. maintains its economic embargo against the Castro regime This wrong-headed policy represents a dangerous threat to the environment and a huge missed opportunity to the U.S. oil industry. The U.S. embargo will do nothing to prevent oil drilling from taking place But it will prevent that work from being done by the most experienced companies the message to the industry is clear we refuse to give superior U.S. operators the license to drill for oil in Cuba And the message to Cuba we’re not going to let you use our engineers Think about Cuba in relation to U.S. oil adventures in the rest of the world Even if Cuba really were a tyrannical threat to U.S. interests, there’s myriad countries where U.S. oil companies have done business that are no more democratic than Cuba Venezuela Saudi Arabia Burma, Libya Guinea and Kazakhstan The embargo stick hasn’t brought regime change, and has only forced Cuba into the arms of autocrats like Chavez. Better to use the carrot to bring Cuba into the U.S. sphere of influence The oil industry is a great place to start
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US expertise in Cuban drilling operations is necessary to prevent oil spills
| 3,697 | 76 | 1,170 | 636 | 12 | 205 | 0.018868 | 0.322327 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,615 |
There are big plans for oil exploration in the Caribbean, not far off the coast of Florida. A Spanish company recently began drilling in Cuban waters — just 55 miles from Key West. The well is the first of several exploratory wells planned in Cuba and the Bahamas. The drilling has officials and researchers in Florida scrambling to make plans for how they'll respond in case of a spill. The U.S. currently doesn't allow any drilling for oil off its Atlantic coast or in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. One reason is what's at stake. Florida's tourism-based economy depends on its beaches, fishing and clear Caribbean water. Environmental Concerns The U.S. ban on drilling off of Florida, however, doesn't affect America's Caribbean neighbors. The exploratory well being drilled off of Cuba has many here concerned, including people like Richard Dodge. Dodge is the dean of Nova Southeastern University's Oceanographic Center in Dania Beach, near Fort Lauderdale, and what he's really concerned about is coral. At the school, Dodge and his graduate students raise staghorn coral in outdoor saltwater tanks. Live coral grow in the crystal-clear water, some just finger length. "These are relatively new ones that we're starting out," Dodge says. "But over here, these are ones we'll be transplanting to the wild." In another tank, large branches of coral will soon be used to help restore damaged reefs. Florida is home to more than three-quarters of the nation's coral reefs — and they haven't been doing so well. Development and warming oceans have already weakened many. On a map, Dodge points out the location of what he believes is an even bigger potential threat — the spot where Cuba has approved offshore oil drilling. "The site that will be drilled," he says, "is only about 50 miles from Key West." The rig drilling off Cuba's northern coast is operating in water that is more than a mile deep. But it's not the depth that concerns Dodge. In the case of a blowout, it's the operation's proximity to the Gulf Stream. "We're worried that it could get into that stream fast and therefore, within days, impact our coastal ecosystem and coastline," Dodge says. A spill could potentially affect hundreds of miles of beaches, mangroves and estuaries from the Keys to Palm Beach. Dodge and other marine scientists in Florida are asking the federal government to fund research that would help identify the resources most at risk, and develop guidelines to protect them. Embargo Could Complicate Cleanup Complicating matters is the fact that this new well is being drilled in the waters of a country that's under a strict U.S. embargo. Unless they apply for and receive special permission from the government, U.S. companies are banned from doing any work on the well — even if there's a spill.
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Allen 12 (Greg – NPR, “U.S. Watches Closely As Oil Drilling Begins Off Cuba”, 2/13, http://www.npr.org/2012/02/13/146635957/u-s-watches-closely-as-oil-drilling-begins-off-cuba)
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There are big plans for oil exploration in the Caribbean not far off the coast of Florida The drilling has officials and researchers in Florida scrambling to make plans for how they'll respond The U.S. ban on drilling off of Florida, however, doesn't affect America's Caribbean neighbors The exploratory well being drilled off of Cuba has many here concerned, including people like Dodge. dean of Nova Southeastern University's Oceanographic Center Florida is home to more than three-quarters of the nation's coral reefs the location of what he believes is an even bigger potential threat the spot where Cuba has approved offshore oil drilling. "The site that will be drilled," is only about 50 miles from Key West." In the case of a blowout, it's the operation's proximity to the Gulf Stream it could get into that stream fast and therefore impact our coastal ecosystem A spill could potentially affect hundreds of miles of beaches, mangroves and estuaries from the Keys to Palm Beach. new well is being drilled in the waters of a country that's under a strict U.S. embargo. Unless they apply for and receive special permission from the government, U.S. companies are banned from doing any work on the well even if there's a spill.
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Cuban oil spill destroys Florida’s ecosystem
| 2,789 | 45 | 1,232 | 468 | 6 | 207 | 0.012821 | 0.442308 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
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3,616 |
For the past year, NOAA and the U.S. Coast Guard have been studying the possible threats that new offshore oil drilling activity near the Florida Straits and the Bahamas pose to Florida. For example, the proximity of Cuba's oil fields to U.S. waters has raised a lot of concerns about what would happen if a spill like the 2010 Deepwater Horizon/BP oil well blowout happened. If a large oil spill did occur in the waters northwest of Cuba, currents in the Florida Straits could carry the oil to U.S. waters and coastal areas in Florida. However, a number of factors, like winds or currents, would determine where any oil slicks might go. NOAA's National Ocean Service has more information about how we're preparing for worst-case scenarios there: The study focuses on modeling the movement of oil in water to predict where, when, and how oil might reach U.S. shores given a spill in this region of the ocean. Models help to determine the threat to our coasts from a potential spill by accounting for many different variables, such as the weathering processes of evaporation, dispersion, photo-oxidation, and biodegradation—all of which reduce the amount of oil in the water over time. Currents and winds also play a role in determining where oil will move in water. For example, there are three major currents that would dominate movement of spilled oil near the Florida Straits: Loop Current, Florida Current, and the Gulf Stream. If oil did reach U.S. waters, marine and coastal resources in southern Florida could be at risk, including coral reefs and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, located north of the Cuban drilling sites. We'll be watching the drilling activity there very carefully. If a spill does happen, NOAA will be ready to share our scientific expertise on oil spill response with the U.S. Coast Guard.
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ORR 12 (Office of Response and Restoration – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Getting Ready for Offshore Oil Drilling in Cuba and the Bahamas”, 4/27, http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/about/media/getting-ready-offshore-oil-drilling-cuba-and-bahamas.html)
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For the past year, NOAA have been studying the possible threats that new offshore oil drilling activity pose to Florida. the proximity of Cuba's oil fields to U.S. waters has raised a lot of concerns If a large oil spill did occur in the waters northwest of Cuba currents carry the oil to U.S. waters and coastal areas in Florida. NOAA's National Ocean Service has more information about The study focuses on modeling the movement of oil in water to predict where, when, and how oil might reach U.S. shores Currents and winds also play a role in determining where oil will move in water there are three major currents that would dominate movement of spilled oil near the Florida Straits If oil did reach U.S. waters, marine and coastal resources in southern Florida could be at risk including coral reefs and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary
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A Cuban oil spill destroys multiple marine ecosystems – proximity and modeling prove
| 1,829 | 84 | 851 | 307 | 13 | 148 | 0.042345 | 0.482085 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,617 |
On any other occasion that might have raised the ire of the Cubans, who consider Washington their imperialista enemy. But the U.S. examination of the Scarabeo 9, which Repsol agreed to and Cuba abided, was part of an unusual choreography of cooperation between the two countries. Their otherwise bitter cold-war feud (they haven't had diplomatic relations since 1961) is best known for a 50-year-long trade embargo and history's scariest nuclear standoff. Now, Cuba's commitment to offshore oil exploration — drilling may start this weekend — raises a specter that haunts both nations: an oil spill in the Florida Straits like the BP calamity that tarred the nearby Gulf of Mexico two years ago and left $40 billion in U.S. damages. The Straits, an equally vital body of water that's home to some of the world's most precious coral reefs, separates Havana and Key West, Florida, by a mere 90 miles. As a result, the U.S. has tacitly loosened its embargo against Cuba to give firms like Repsol easier access to the U.S. equipment they need to help avoid or contain possible spills. "Preventing drilling off Cuba better protects our interests than preparing for [a disaster] does," U.S. Senator Bill Nelson of Florida tells TIME, noting the U.S. would prefer to stop the Cuban drilling — but can't. "But the two are not mutually exclusive, and that's why we should aim to do both."
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Padgett 12 (Tim, “The Oil Off Cuba: Washington and Havana Dance at Arms Length Over Spill Prevention”, 1/27, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2105598,00.html)
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Cuba's commitment to offshore oil exploration raises a specter that haunts both nations an oil spill in the Florida Straits like the BP calamity The Straits, an equally vital body of water that's home to some of the world's most precious coral reefs separates Havana and Key West, Florida, by a mere 90 miles.
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Spills risk destruction of key ecosystems
| 1,379 | 41 | 309 | 233 | 6 | 54 | 0.025751 | 0.23176 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,618 |
HAVANA — The United States should urgently make plans for helping Cuba in the event of an offshore oil spill as it prepares to begin exploring fields opposite Florida this year, William Reilly, the co-chairman of a commission that examined the Deepwater Horizon spill, said during a visit here.
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New York Times 9/09/2011 “U.S. Is Urged to Plan to Aid Cuba in Case of an Oil Spill” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/09/world/americas/09cuba.html?_r=0
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The U S should urgently make plans for helping Cuba in the event of an offshore oil spill Reilly, the co-chairman of a commission that examined the Deepwater Horizon spill, said
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Cuba says yes to US expertise
| 294 | 30 | 177 | 49 | 6 | 31 | 0.122449 | 0.632653 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
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2013
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3,619 |
Repsol, the Spanish oil company, plans to dig at least one well using a Chinese-built rig, which is set to reach Cuba in November. A significant discovery would greatly change Cuba’s economic prospects, but the possibility has also raised concerns about potential ecological disasters.
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New York Times 9/09/2011 “U.S. Is Urged to Plan to Aid Cuba in Case of an Oil Spill” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/09/world/americas/09cuba.html?_r=0
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Repsol plans to dig at least one well A significant discovery would greatly change Cuba’s economic prospects, but the possibility has also raised concerns about potential ecological disasters
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Exceptions aren’t sufficient – broad licensing is key
| 285 | 54 | 191 | 44 | 8 | 28 | 0.181818 | 0.636364 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,620 |
It is difficult to assess the likelihood of a spill. According to Saipem, Scarabeo-9 is built to Norwegian standards, including extra equipment to shut off blown-out wells beyond what is required in the United States.30 Repsol has significant offshore experience, including projects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. It has had issues with oil spills, which is not abnormal for an oil company.31 Among other Cuban lease holders, Petrobras and Statoil have extensive offshore experience, including projects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, and are generally seen as accomplished offshore operators. Petronas, ONGC, and PetroVietnam also have offshore experience. PdVSA does not, but its offshore project appears the furthest from seeing drilling activity among existing licenses.
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Nerurkar & Sullivan 10 – Neelesh Nerurkar, Specialist in Energy Policy at the Congressional Research Service, and Mark P. Sullivan, Specialist in Latin American Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, November 29, 2010, “Cuba’s Offshore Oil Development: Background and U.S. Policy Considerations,” online: http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R41522_20101129.pdf
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It is difficult to assess the likelihood of a spill. Scarabeo-9 is built to Norwegian standards, including extra equipment to shut off blown-out wells beyond what is required in the U S Repsol has significant offshore experience, including projects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Among other Cuban lease holders, Petrobras and Statoil have extensive offshore experience, including projects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, and are generally seen as accomplished offshore operators.
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B) Investors are experienced
| 767 | 29 | 473 | 116 | 4 | 73 | 0.034483 | 0.62931 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
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2013
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3,621 |
On Christmas Eve, a massive, Chinese-made maritime oil rig, the Scarabeo 9, arrived at Trinidad and Tobago for inspection. The Spanish oil company Repsol YPF, which keeps regional headquarters in Trinidad, ferried it to the Caribbean to perform deep-ocean drilling off Cuba — whose communist government believes as much as 20 billion barrels of crude may lie near the island's northwest coast. But it wasn't Cuban authorities who came aboard the Scarabeo 9 to give it the once-over: officials from the U.S. Coast Guard and Interior Department did, even though the rig won't be operating in U.S. waters. On any other occasion that might have raised the ire of the Cubans, who consider Washington their imperialista enemy. But the U.S. examination of the Scarabeo 9, which Repsol agreed to and Cuba abided, was part of an unusual choreography of cooperation between the two countries. Their otherwise bitter cold-war feud (they haven't had diplomatic relations since 1961) is best known for a 50-year-long trade embargo and history's scariest nuclear standoff. Now, Cuba's commitment to offshore oil exploration — drilling may start this weekend — raises a specter that haunts both nations: an oil spill in the Florida Straits like the BP calamity that tarred the nearby Gulf of Mexico two years ago and left $40 billion in U.S. damages. The Straits, an equally vital body of water that's home to some of the world's most precious coral reefs, separates Havana and Key West, Florida, by a mere 90 miles. As a result, the U.S. has tacitly loosened its embargo against Cuba to give firms like Repsol easier access to the U.S. equipment they need to help avoid or contain possible spills. "Preventing drilling off Cuba better protects our interests than preparing for [a disaster] does," U.S. Senator Bill Nelson of Florida tells TIME, noting the U.S. would prefer to stop the Cuban drilling — but can't. "But the two are not mutually exclusive, and that's why we should aim to do both." Cuba meanwhile has tacitly agreed to ensure that its safety measures meet U.S. standards (not that U.S. standards proved all that golden during the 2010 BP disaster) and is letting unofficial U.S. delegations in to discuss the precautions being taken by Havana and the international oil companies it is contracting. No Cuban official would discuss the matter, but Dan Whittle, senior attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund in New York, who was part of one recent delegation, says the Cubans "seem very motivated to do the right thing."
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Padgett 12 (Tim, “The Oil Off Cuba: Washington and Havana Dance at Arms Length Over Spill Prevention”, 1/27, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2105598,00.html)
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a massive, Chinese-made maritime oil rig, the Scarabeo 9, arrived Spanish oil company Repsol ferried it to the Caribbean to perform deep-ocean drilling off Cuba it wasn't Cuban authorities who came aboard the Scarabeo 9 to give it the once-over officials from the U.S. Coast Guard and Interior Department did even though the rig won't be operating in U.S. waters .S. examination of the Scarabeo 9 was part of an unusual choreography of cooperation between the two countries Cuba meanwhile has tacitly agreed to ensure that its safety measures meet U.S. standards and is letting unofficial U.S. delegations in to discuss the precautions being taken by Havana
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C) Status quo solves – US inspections of rigs
| 2,523 | 45 | 657 | 419 | 9 | 107 | 0.02148 | 0.25537 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
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3,622 |
The new U.S. Coast Guard commander for the southeastern United States said Thursday that his agency is looking "very seriously'' at Cuba's plans to drill for oil and reviewing contingency plans in the event of a spill that could reach the Florida coast.
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McClatchy 11 – McClatchy Newspapers, “Coast Guard preparing for Cuba oil spills,” February 4, 2011, online: http://www.theolympian.com/2010/09/30/1531424/coast-guard-preparing-for-cuba.html
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The Coast Guard is looking "very seriously'' at Cuba's plans to drill for oil and reviewing contingency plans in the event of a spill
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NO IMPACT- Coast Guard contingency plans would contain any impacts from spills
| 253 | 78 | 133 | 43 | 12 | 24 | 0.27907 | 0.55814 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
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3,623 |
There is evidence that marine organisms and ecosystems are resilient to environmental change. Steele (1991) hypothesized that the biological components of marine systems are tightly coupled to physical factors, allowing them to respond quickly to rapid environmental change and thus rendering them ecologically adaptable. Some species also have wide genetic variability throughout their range, which may allow for adaptation to climate change.
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Kennedy 2 - Environmental science prof, Maryland. Former Director, Cooperative Oxford Laboratory. PhD. (Victor, Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Global Climate Change, http://www.pewclimate.org/projects/marine.cfm)
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marine organisms and ecosystems are resilient to environmental change. the biological components of marine systems are tightly coupled to physical factors, allowing them to respond quickly to rapid environmental change and thus rendering them ecologically adaptable.
|
NO IMPACT - ocean species are resilient
| 443 | 39 | 266 | 62 | 7 | 36 | 0.112903 | 0.580645 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,624 |
Cuban specialists who are going to participate in the drilling of deep-water exploratory wells in Cuban waters in the Gulf of Mexico recently participated in courses on safety and environment protection as part of preparations for such activities. A total of 120 Cubans including executives, officials and technicians of enterprises involved in the oil industry participated in three seminars on the topic taught by Norwegian experts. Manuel Marrero, chief oil and gas specialist of the Basic Industry Ministry, told ACN the several-day training is vital to undertake the deep- and ultra-deep-water drillings scheduled to begin in a few months. Current international regulations for this kind of operations are very rigorous in an effort to protect the environment and avoid accidents such as the one that recently occurred in the British Pretroleum platform.
|
TC 11 (Television Camaguey, “Cuban Specialists Receive Training on Safe Oil Drilling “, 6/8, http://www.tvcamaguey.co.cu/english/index.php/science-and-technology/35-science/92-cuban-specialists-receive-training-on-safe-oil-drilling-.html)
|
Cuban specialists who are going to participate in the drilling of deep-water exploratory wells in Cuban waters recently participated in courses on safety and environment protection as part of preparations for such activities Cubans including executives, officials and technicians of enterprises involved in the oil industry participated the several-day training is vital Current international regulations for this kind of operations are very rigorous in an effort to protect the environment and avoid accidents
|
Training of Cuban officials and international regulations solve
| 859 | 63 | 510 | 132 | 8 | 73 | 0.060606 | 0.55303 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,625 |
U.S. officials said Monday a rig operated by Spain's Repsol YPF that is expected to drill offshore Cuba in the coming months complies with international and U.S. safety standards. 'U.S. personnel found the vessel to generally comply with existing international and U.S. standards by which Repsol has pledged to abide,' the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said in the press release. The agency, however, noted that the vessel review 'does not confer any form of certification or endorsement under U.S. or international law' and that the U.S. has no legal or regulatory authority over the rig. The vessel, named Scarabeo 9, was inspected off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago and it will begin drilling a deep-water oil well later this year about 100 kms off the Florida Keys. Repsol, which does business in the U.S., had agreed to let U.S. federal regulators inspect the rig before it enters Cuban waters. The rig's review was aimed at minimizing the possibility of a major oil spill, which would hurt U.S. economic and environmental interests, the regulatory agency said. While aboard the Scarabeo 9, U.S. officials reviewed vessel construction, drilling equipment, and safety systems--including lifesaving and firefighting equipment, emergency generators, dynamic positioning systems, machinery spaces, and the blowout preventer, according to agency. In anticipation of increased drilling activities in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. is in discussions with the Bahamas, Cuba, Jamaica and Mexico on a broad range of issues, including drilling safety, ocean modeling, and oil spill preparedness and response, in order to reduce the impact of a major pollution incident, the agency said.
|
WSJ 12 (Wall Street Journal, “Cuba - Repsol's Cuba drilling rig complies with safety standards”, 1/10, http://www.bpcplc.com/media-centre/non-company-press-releases/cuba-repsol%27s-cuba-drilling-rig-complies-with-safety-standards.aspx)
|
U.S. officials said a rig operated by Spain that is expected to drill offshore Cuba complies with international and U.S. safety standards .S. personnel found the vessel to generally comply with existing international and U.S. standards Repsol, which does business in the U.S., had agreed to let U.S. federal regulators inspect the rig The rig's review was aimed at minimizing the possibility of a major oil spill, S. officials reviewed vessel construction, drilling equipment, and safety systems- the U.S. is in discussions with Cuba on a broad range of issues, including drilling safety,
|
US inspections of Cuban drilling equipment prevents spills – ensures compliance
| 1,711 | 79 | 589 | 267 | 11 | 93 | 0.041199 | 0.348315 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,626 |
The deepwater drilling rig that Spanish oil giant Repsol will use for planned oil exploration off Cuba’s coast is getting a clean bill of health from U.S. officials. The United States has no regulatory authority over the drilling, but an Interior Department and Coast Guard team was invited to inspect the Scarabeo 9 rig by Repsol, a check-up that comes as planned drilling off Cuba’s coast draws criticism from several U.S. lawmakers. “The review compared the vessel with applicable international safety and security standards as well as U.S. standards for drilling units operating in the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf. U.S. personnel found the vessel to generally comply with existing international and U.S. standards by which Repsol has pledged to abide,” the U.S. agencies said in a joint statement Monday upon completion of the review. The U.S. team reviewed drilling equipment, safety systems such as firefighting equipment and the unit’s blowout preventer and other aspects of the rig. A number of U.S. lawmakers critical of the Cuban government have criticized Repsol’s planned project, noting it will bring revenues to the Cuban regime and that a spill could threaten nearby U.S. shores. More on that here, here and here. “The review is consistent with U.S. efforts to minimize the possibility of a major oil spill, which would hurt U.S. economic and environmental interests,” Interior and the Coast Guard said of the inspection, which occurred off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago.
|
Geman 12 (Ben, “Interior: Cuba-bound drilling rig ‘generally’ meets US standards”, 1/9, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/203161-interior-cuba-bound-drilling-rig-generally-meets-us-standards)
|
The deepwater drilling rig that Repsol will use for planned oil exploration off Cuba’s coast is getting a clean bill of health from U.S. officials an Interior Department and Coast Guard team was invited to inspect the rig The review compared the vessel with applicable international safety and security standards as well as U.S. standards for drilling units operating U.S. personnel found the vessel to generally comply with existing international and U.S. standards The review is consistent with U.S. efforts to minimize the possibility of a major oil spill which would hur environmental interests
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US standards are met – solves the impact
| 1,490 | 41 | 598 | 239 | 8 | 94 | 0.033473 | 0.393305 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,627 |
Similar reasoning applies even following local extirpation of a species. The loss of a species from a region might seem to remove it from the background of natural hazards in the region, making its reintroduction equivalent to the import of an exotic species. But nature is not static. Any species not extinct in the wild could return without human intervention. Even a long absence does not mean that nature will not bring back the species. Wolves, for example, returned on their own to northern Montana after an absence of fifty years. n300 Like restocking, reintroduction therefore does not qualitatively change the natural dangers to which property is exposed. Moreover, the same practical problem of distinguishing natural from introduced wildlife damage applies. It is often difficult to determine whether a species has truly been extirpated from a region, n301 or whether it has returned on its own before or after a deliberate human reintroduction. n302 Distinguishing harm caused by remnant or naturally dispersing animals from that caused by those imported by human efforts may be virtually impossible.
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Doremus in ’99 Holly Doremus, Acting Professor of Law, University of California at Davis. “RESTORING ENDANGERED SPECIES: THE IMPORTANCE OF BEING WILD.” The Harvard Environmental Law Review. 1999. Lexis
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nature is not static. Any species not extinct in the wild could return without human intervention. Even a long absence does not mean that nature will not bring back the species. Like restocking, reintroduction therefore does not qualitatively change the natural dangers to which property is exposed.
|
Species extinction in certain areas come back – either through human intervention or nature.
| 1,112 | 92 | 299 | 176 | 14 | 47 | 0.079545 | 0.267045 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,628 |
More dramatically, mass extinctions have occurred at a few points in earth's history, when many species, even the majority of [*510] all species on the planet, became extinct during a relatively brief span of time. n20 Although there is some scientific debate as to whether the extinction rates during these periods significantly exceeded the usual background rate, it is generally accepted that the fossil record evidences heavy extinction in at least five geologic ages. n21 Given the huge number of species terminated by the various mass extinctions, one may be surprised to learn that, devastating as these events were, their victims are outnumbered by the species that have expired during less remarkable epochs. Most of the literally millions of extinct species perished in relative isolation, each failing to adapt to changing conditions that threatened only a few, or even only one species. n22 Almost all of the species that ever existed on this planet have long been extinct by no act of humans, and yet more species are currently living than at any time in the past.
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Kunich ’94 John Charles Kunich, udge Advocate specializing in environmental law and with Highest Honors 1993 George Washington University School of Law. Environmental Law. Spring 1994. “SPECIES & HABITAT CONSERVATION: THE FALLACY OF DEATHBED CONSERVATION UNDER THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT.” Lexis
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mass extinctions have occurred at a few points in earth's history the fossil record evidences heavy extinction in at least five geologic ages. devastating as these events were, their victims are outnumbered by the species that have expired during less remarkable epochs. Almost all of the species that ever existed on this planet have long been extinct by no act of humans,
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There were already several mass extinctions – there was no permanent extinction of life.
| 1,077 | 88 | 373 | 177 | 14 | 62 | 0.079096 | 0.350282 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,629 |
The codification of the U.S. embargo against Cuba has failed to accomplish its objectives, as stated in Helms-Burton, of causing regime change and restoring democracy in Cuba. Continuing to ignore this obvious truth is not only counterproductive to the interests of the United States, but also increasingly damaging to Cuban civil society, including the more than 400,000 Cubans now working as licensed private entrepreneurs, because it places the burden of sanctions squarely on their shoulders to bear.
|
Cuba Study Group 2013 “Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba” February http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
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The codification of the U.S. embargo against Cuba has failed to accomplish its objectives of causing regime change and restoring democracy in Cuba. Continuing to ignore this obvious truth is not only counterproductive to the interests of the U S but also increasingly damaging to Cuban civil society,
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Economic reform is slowly happening in Cuba - removing the embargo is necessary to jump start broader economic liberalization
| 504 | 125 | 300 | 77 | 19 | 48 | 0.246753 | 0.623377 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,630 |
The past four years have seen remarkable shifts in attitudes on both sides of the Florida Straits away from isolation and toward direct engagement and empowerment of the Cuban people. In Cuba, an emerging class of entrepreneurs and self-employed workers represents the best hope for a free and open society since the embargo was enacted. In the United States, Cuban-Americans have become increasingly supportive of engagement with their counterparts in Cuba and are traveling in record numbers to support their families and reconnect with their communities. The Cuban Diaspora represents an important asset in both experience and resources to the millions of Cubans who are, for the first time, taking control over their economic destinies.
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Cuba Study Group 2013 “Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba” February http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
|
The past four years have seen remarkable shifts in attitudes on both sides of the Florida Straits away from isolation and toward direct engagement and empowerment of the Cuban people. In Cuba, an emerging class of entrepreneurs and self-employed workers represents the best hope for a free and open society since the embargo was enacted. Cuban-Americans have become increasingly supportive of engagement
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Now is key – social factors have set the stage for economic liberalization – removing the embargo is key to necessary comprehensive reform
| 740 | 138 | 403 | 115 | 23 | 62 | 0.2 | 0.53913 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,631 |
But this is not the appropriate model through which to understand a dynamic Cuban political system. The Cuban leadership under Raul Castro is demonstrating a will to reform. Only the future will tell whether the Cuban Communist Party and its partner in ruling Cuba, the Cuban Armed Forces (FAR) complex, can embrace the degree of adaptability necessary for a successful intergenerational succession. Events in 2010 and 2011 indicate that even the most conservative of Cuban officials appear to be convinced the PCC needs to show improvements in the nation’s economic performance and the willingness to adapt to a globalized world in order for the party to regain legitimacy with the Cuban people.
|
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
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Castro is demonstrating a will to reform. Only the future will tell whether the Cuban Communist Party can embrace the degree of adaptability necessary for a successful intergenerational succession. even the most conservative of Cuban officials appear to be convinced the PCC needs to show improvements in the nation’s economic performance and the willingness to adapt to a globalized world in order for the party to regain legitimacy with the Cuban people
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Economic liberalization is key to a stable transition to a marketized one party system
| 696 | 86 | 455 | 112 | 14 | 72 | 0.125 | 0.642857 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,632 |
Most of the changes proposed by Raul Castro have been debated within Cuban politics debate for the last twenty years. But the V Congress of the PCC in 1997 was a victory of conservative and bureaucratic forces opposed to the reforms13. As result of the stagnation that followed, significant segments of the Cuban population questioned the government’s willingness to execute the most needed changes. After twenty years of government announcements and delays; confidence in the leadership’s commitment to real reform is shaky. In light of this history, part of the population views the government as oblivious to the costs of excessive gradualism or simply as trying to buy time to remain in power as long as possible, without a clear vision for the future or the will to take risks.
|
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
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Most of the changes proposed by Raul have been debated within Cuban politics for the last twenty years. But the V Congress in 1997 was a victory of conservative and bureaucratic forces opposed to the reforms13. As result of the stagnation that followed, significant segments of the Cuban population questioned the government’s willingness to execute the most needed changes. After twenty years of government announcements and delays; confidence in the leadership’s commitment to real reform is shaky. part of the population views the government as oblivious to the costs of excessive gradualism or simply as trying to buy time to remain in power as long as possible, without a clear vision for the future or the will to take risks.
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Cuba is fragile now – failure to promote major reform instability
| 782 | 66 | 731 | 130 | 11 | 120 | 0.084615 | 0.923077 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,633 |
Indeed, if Cuba’s economic reform fails and local revolts ensue, the most likely outcome would be more a civil war such as that seen in Libya, with horrific acts of war, resistance and violations of human rights throughout the country. Nationalists who are concerned about the risk of political instability and criticize the lack of a credible proposal by most Cuban opposition groups should not be dismissed as opponents of democracy. The support for the political opposition should not be a litmus test that determines whether Washington will engage in cooperative dialogue with actors in Cuba.
|
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
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if Cuba’s economic reform fails the most likely outcome would be a civil war with horrific acts of war, resistance and violations of human rights throughout the country. Nationalists who are concerned about the risk of political instability and criticize the lack of a credible proposal by most Cuban opposition groups should not be dismissed as opponents of democracy. The support for the political opposition should not be a litmus test that determines whether Washington will engage in cooperative dialogue with actors in Cuba
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Failure of economic reforms civil war
| 596 | 38 | 529 | 96 | 6 | 84 | 0.0625 | 0.875 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,634 |
About nine percent of such a tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto water, boil to gas in about five minutes. 3 (It does not matter how cold the water is; it will be at least two hundred twenty-eight Fahrenheit degrees hot- ter than the LNG, which it will therefore cause to boil violently.) The result- ing gas, however, will be so cold that it will still be denser than air. It will therefore flow in a cloud or plume along the surface until it reaches an ignition source. Such a plume might extend at least three miles downwind from a large tanker spill within ten to twenty minutes. 4 It might ultimately reach much farther—perhaps six to twelve miles. 5 If not ignited, the gas is asphyxiating. If ignited, it will burn to completion with a turbulent diffusion flame reminiscent of the 1937 Hindenberg disaster but about a hundred times as big. Such a fireball would burn everything within it, and by its radiant heat would cause third-degree burns and start fires a mile or two away. 6 An LNG fireball can blow through a city, creating “a very large number of ignitions and explosions across a wide area. No present or foreseeable equipment can put out a very large [LNG]... fire.” 7 The energy content of a single standard LNG tanker (one hundred twenty-five thousand cubic meters) is equivalent to seven-tenths of a megaton of TNT, or about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.
|
Lovin 1 (Amory B., Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, and L. Hunter Lovin, President – National Capitalism and Co-Founder – Rocky Mountain Institute, “Brittle Power: Energy Strategy for National Security”, http://verdilivorno.it/doc_gnl/198204_Brittle_Power_intro_GNL_note.pdf)
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a tankerload of LNG will if spilled onto water, boil in about five minutes It will flow until it reaches an ignition source If ignited, it will burn to completion with a turbulent diffusion flame reminiscent of the Hindenberg but about a hundred times as big. Such a fireball would burn everything within it, and start fires a mile away An LNG fireball can blow through a city, creating “a very large number of explosions The content of a single standard LNG is equivalent to fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.
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LNG tanker explosions cause catastrophic damage – outweighs nuclear war
| 1,386 | 71 | 503 | 244 | 10 | 88 | 0.040984 | 0.360656 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,635 |
Most of these ideas about economic reform are in their initial stages. It is not yet clear just how mixed the new economic model will be and whether Raul Castro’s government will be able to efficiently implement its adjustment plan. There are obviously many impediments and flaws to the process, the most important of which is the lack of funds to ameliorate transition costs and speed up the implementation of the new policies. Equally important is the fact that in its preference for gradualism, and likewise horrified by the shock therapy approach to reform undertaken in Russia, Cuba’s leaders, seem to be oblivious to the problems associated with excessive gradualism.
|
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
|
these ideas about economic reform are in their initial stages. It is not yet clear just how mixed the new economic model will be and whether Castro’s government will be able to efficiently implement its adjustment plan. There are obviously many impediments and flaws to the process, the most important of which is the lack of funds to ameliorate transition costs and speed up the implementation of the new policies
|
STATUS QUO REFORM IS INSUFFICIENT – extend Cuba Study Group & Lopez Levy – its too slow and not comprehensive enough to assure a smooth the transition – the plan is necessary to assure their success
| 673 | 199 | 414 | 110 | 36 | 70 | 0.327273 | 0.636364 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,636 |
As the only long-standing authoritarian regime in Latin America and the Caribbean, historically Cuba has been the focus of considerable controversy within past presidential administrations and policy advisors. Cuba is the only country in the Western Hemisphere against which the U.S. government has persistently imposed a full economic embargo in an attempt to encourage democratization (Cato Institute, Center for Trade Policy Studies, 1). Since 1962, when the United States first imposed a trade embargo on Cuba, sanctions have failed to accomplish the intended goal of promoting democracy. Instead, the Cuban government led by Fidel Castro has used the embargo to divert attention away from its own policy failures and to garner international sympathy. As a result of the trade embargo with Cuba, U.S. companies have been deprived of business opportunities and domestic consumers have been punished; within Cuba, the embargo has hurt the poor and has exacerbated malnutrition and health concerns.
|
Zimmerman Executive Editor – Georgetown Law Journal 2010 Chelsea “Rethinking The Cuban Trade Embargo: An Opportune Time To Mend a Broken Policy” Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2010/Zimmerman.pdf
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Cuba is the only country in the Western Hemisphere against which the U.S. government has persistently imposed a full economic embargo in an attempt to encourage democratization sanctions have failed to accomplish the intended goal of promoting democracy. the Cuban government has used the embargo to divert attention away from its own policy failures and to garner international sympathy. As a result of the trade embargo with Cuba, U.S. companies have been deprived of business opportunities and domestic consumers have been punished;
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Embargo fails to promote democratic reform – no risk of smooth transition now
| 999 | 78 | 535 | 151 | 13 | 82 | 0.086093 | 0.543046 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,637 |
While it is difficult to prove a direct causal connection between economic reforms and an open society, modern history has taught us that it is increasingly difficult for dictatorial governments to maintain political control the more prosperity their people enjoy.xx Repealing Helms-Burton and related statutory provisions would allow the U.S. the ability to efficiently promote and provide direct support to Cuba’s private sector. Such support would empower a greater plurality within Cuban society, including government reformers, democracy advocates, Cuban entrepreneurs and society as a whole by increasing their access to the resources and expertise of the world’s most prosperous private sector (and largest Cuban diaspora), located a mere 90 miles from Cuba’s shores. In turn, this would enhance the relative power of Cuban society to that of the state, while stripping the latter of its preferred scapegoat for its oppressive practices and economic blunders. U.S. policy should also seek to incentivize the Cuban government to end state monopolies on economic activities and allow greater private participation in the economy.
|
Cuba Study Group 2013 “Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba” February http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
|
it is increasingly difficult for dictatorial governments to maintain political control the more prosperity their people enjoy. Repealing Helms-Burton and related statutory provisions would allow the U.S. the ability to efficiently promote and provide direct support to Cuba’s private sector. Such support would empower a greater plurality within Cuban society, including government reformers, democracy advocates, Cuban entrepreneurs and society as a whole by increasing their access to the resources and expertise of the world’s most prosperous private sector located a mere 90 miles from Cuba’s shores. this would enhance the relative power of Cuban society to that of the state, while stripping the latter of its preferred scapegoat for its oppressive practices and economic blunders. U.S. policy should also seek to incentivize the Cuban government to end state monopolies on economic activities and allow greater private participation in the economy
|
PLAN SOLVES REFORM – extend Cuba Study Group and Lopez-Levy – investment and removal of barriers to growth are key to the success of economic reforms
| 1,134 | 150 | 954 | 169 | 26 | 140 | 0.153846 | 0.828402 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,638 |
The optimal antecedent to promoting democratization in the medium term is by supporting market-oriented economic reform today. A peaceful and gradual transition to democracy in Cuba in the mid-term depends as much on economic reform as on the emergence of an independent and globally-connected middle class. In the context of liberalization, improvements in human rights should be measured through the effect of the sum of all policies in the majority of the population not exclusively on those who challenge the political regime. The most salient human rights issue on the horizon will likely be the lack of jobs for the million and a half workers who will be dismissed from the state sector before the end of 2011, not prohibitions in the political sphere, such as the lack of freedom to organize a political party.
|
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
|
The optimal antecedent to promoting democratization in the medium term is by supporting market-oriented economic reform today. improvements in human rights should be measured through the effect of the sum of all policies in the majority of the population not exclusively on those who challenge the political regime. The most salient human rights issue on the horizon will likely be the lack of jobs for the million and a half workers who will be dismissed from the state sector before the end of 2011, not prohibitions in the political sphere
|
Market based reforms are key to democratization – the aff must come first
| 817 | 74 | 542 | 135 | 13 | 90 | 0.096296 | 0.666667 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,639 |
The opening sentence in Helms-Burton describes the legislation as “an Act to seek international sanctions against the Castro government in Cuba.”xiii However, in the 17 years since its enactment, Helms-Burton has utterly failed to garner support from the international community. No other country besides the U.S. currently imposes sanctions, economic or otherwise, against Cuba. On the contrary, there is greater trade between Cuba and the rest of the world today than any time since the Revolution took over in 1959. The absence of international cooperation undermines the central goal of an embargo, which is the economic isolation of the targeted country. Clearly, economic sanctions that do not enjoy multilateral support cannot by definition isolate the Cuban government. By contrast, when the U.S. Congress enacted the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act (“CAAA”) in 1986 to “bring about the establishment of a nonracial democracy in South Africa,” it served as part of multilateral arms and trade embargo imposed by the United Nations.xiv More recently, the absence of extraterritorial provisions aimed at third countries in U.S. policy toward Burma has also helped the United States secure multilateral support for sanctions against human rights violators in the Burmese government.xv
|
Cuba Study Group 2013 “Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba” February http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
|
Helms-Burton has utterly failed to garner support from the international community. No other country besides the U.S. currently imposes sanctions, economic or otherwise, against Cuba. there is greater trade between Cuba and the rest of the world today than any time since the Revolution took over in 1959. The absence of international cooperation undermines the central goal of an embargo, economic sanctions that do not enjoy multilateral support cannot by definition isolate the Cuban government.
|
Embargo fails – lacks international support
| 1,290 | 44 | 498 | 193 | 6 | 75 | 0.031088 | 0.388601 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,640 |
The embargo has been a failure by every measure. It has not changed the course or nature of the Cuban government. It has not liberated a single Cuban citizen. In fact, the embargo has made the Cuban people a bit more impoverished, without making them one bit more free. At the same time, it has deprived Americans of their freedom to travel and has cost US farmers and other producers billions of dollars of potential exports.
|
Griswold director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute 2009 Daniel “The US Embargo of Cuba Is a Failure” Guardian Online http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/us-embargo-cuba-is-failure
|
The embargo has been a failure by every measure. It has not changed the course or nature of the Cuban government. It has not liberated a single Cuban citizen the embargo has made the Cuban people a bit more impoverished, without making them one bit more free. it has deprived Americans of their freedom to travel and has cost US farmers and other producers billions of dollars of potential exports.
|
Embargo is a failure – it does not democratize or regime change
| 426 | 63 | 398 | 76 | 12 | 70 | 0.157895 | 0.921053 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,641 |
By ignoring both the Cuban elite’s potential for governance and the current balance of power in which the opposition is fragmented, dispersed and without a clearly-articulated governance plan, the U.S. is opting for the most unstable and uncertain road to political transition. The immediate goals of U.S. policy towards Cuba must be to promote market growth through economic reform and a stable process of political liberalization that welcomes the growth of nonpartisan Cuban civil society organizations.
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Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
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By ignoring both the Cuban elite’s potential for governance and the current balance of power in which the opposition is fragmented, dispersed and without a clearly-articulated governance plan, the U.S. is opting for the most unstable and uncertain road to political transition The immediate goals must be to promote market growth through economic reform and a stable process of political liberalization that welcomes the growth of nonpartisan Cuban civil society organizations.
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Economic reform is key to political reform
| 506 | 43 | 477 | 76 | 7 | 71 | 0.092105 | 0.934211 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,642 |
The Cuban government's easing of travel restrictions this month marks another sign of its commitment to reforms and changing sentiments in Havana, says Julia Sweig, CFR's director for Latin American Studies. Washington should seize on such moves, she says, to initiate a new dialogue and begin solving the many problems impeding normalization of ties between the countries--such as the case of detained U.S. citizen Alan Gross--and U.S. influence in the region. "There are geostrategic reasons within the region, leaving apart the bilateral relationship, why it makes a great deal of sense for a strategy of rapprochement with Cuba," Sweig says.
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Sweig Director for Latin American Studies Council on Foreign Relations & McMahon Editor CFR.org 2013 Julia & Robert “Talking Cuba” Interview with Julia Sweig Council on Foreign Relations 1/25 http://www.cfr.org/cuba/talking-cuba/p29879
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The Cuban government's easing of travel restrictions marks another sign of its commitment to reforms and changing sentiments in Havana Washington should seize on such moves, to initiate a new dialogue and begin solving the many problems impeding normalization of ties between the countries "There are geostrategic reasons within the region, why it makes a great deal of sense for a strategy of rapprochement with Cuba,
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Cuban is making concessions – now is key to act
| 645 | 48 | 418 | 100 | 10 | 66 | 0.1 | 0.66 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,643 |
Is there a greater example of utter folly than America’s superannuated policy toward Cuba? During more than 50 years corrupted by covert actions, economic sabotage, travel bans and unending embargo, the United States managed to make Castro and Cuba an international symbol of proud independence. Intent on isolating Cuba, Washington has succeeded only in isolating itself in its own hemisphere. Intent on displacing Fidel Castro, the U.S. enmity only added to his nationalist credentials.
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Vanden Heuvel Editor and Publisher of The Nation 2013 Katrina “The U.S. Should End the Cuban Embargo” Washington Post 6/02 http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-07-02/opinions/40316090_1_embargo-limited-private-enterprise-odebrecht
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During more than 50 years corrupted by unending embargo, the U S managed to make Castro and Cuba an international symbol of proud independence. Intent on isolating Cuba, Washington has succeeded only in isolating itself in its own hemisphere.
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Cuba is experimenting with market reforms now – needs support to be successful
| 488 | 78 | 242 | 74 | 13 | 39 | 0.175676 | 0.527027 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,644 |
Despite the U.S. government’s attempts to promote democracy in Cuba through economic sanctions, Fidel Castro, the former leader of an underdeveloped nation of 11 million people, survived eight U.S. presidents and their attempts to oust him from office. With the recent resignation of Fidel Castro and the installation of his brother, 76-year-old Raul Castro, as president, many observers in the U.S. and Cuba relish the opportunity to develop stronger trade ties. Although he has not signaled any major shift in Cuba’s economic system, in a speech given in July of 2007, Raul Castro acknowledged that structural changes were necessary to increase efficiency and the production of goods in Cuba. Castro recognizes the inherent limitations on a country that imports more than 80 percent of its food, leaves half of its arable land fallow, and depends on Venezuela for 90 million barrels of oil per day (The Center for Democracy in the Americas). During the several years he has acted as president, Raul Castro has pursued reform measures to make the government more efficient and invigorate the Cuban economy. He has opened unused state land to private farmers, allowed private farmers to buy their own feed and fertilizer rather than have them assigned by the state, permitted nationals to buy computers, cell phones and other appliances that previously were prohibited, reformed the state wage system by removing salary limits, and allowed Cubans to gain title to state-owned homes (Weissert, 1). Most experts believe that Raul Castro will not undertake dramatic economic reforms over the near term. Furthermore, due to the diversification of its economic relationships with other countries, particularly China and Venezuela, Cuba is less reliant on the United States as a potential business partner.
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Zimmerman Executive Editor – Georgetown Law Journal 2010 Chelsea “Rethinking The Cuban Trade Embargo: An Opportune Time To Mend a Broken Policy” Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2010/Zimmerman.pdf
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Despite the U.S. government’s attempts to promote democracy in Cuba through economic sanctions, Fidel Castro, survived eight U.S. presidents and their attempts to oust him from office. With the recent resignation of Fidel and the installation of Raul as president, many observers in the U.S. and Cuba relish the opportunity to develop stronger trade ties. Raul acknowledged that structural changes were necessary to increase efficiency and the production of goods in Cuba. Castro recognizes the inherent limitations on a country that imports more than 80 percent of its food, leaves half of its arable land fallow, and depends on Venezuela for 90 million barrels of oil per day Raul has pursued reform measures to make the government more efficient and invigorate the Cuban economy.
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Raul is willing to reform
| 1,800 | 26 | 782 | 284 | 5 | 124 | 0.017606 | 0.43662 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,645 |
Although the current phase of party debate is focused on the economic and social dimensions of reform, and while the party would like to prevent the economic changes from producing pressure for a transition to multi-party democracy, it would be naive to assume that these economic changes will not have profound political implications. It is clear that the economic reform would foster political changes on which the opposition could capitalize. Workers in state sectors, particularly health and education, would not remain passive if their salaries remain stagnant while others prosper. Economic reform and the growth of the private sector would create opportunities for the legitimization of different types of wealth. Cubans would engage in conspicuous consumption, as some already do, and inequities and corruption would necessarily create social tensions.
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Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
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while the party would like to prevent the economic changes from producing pressure for a transition to multi-party democracy, it would be naive to assume that economic changes will not have profound political implications. economic reform would foster political changes on which the opposition could capitalize.
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Economic reform democratic change
| 860 | 34 | 311 | 129 | 4 | 46 | 0.031008 | 0.356589 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,646 |
Relaxing U.S. trade restrictions will not result in an immediate thaw in relations with Cuba. The Cuban government’s response may be slow, as Raul Castro will need to factor in the changes in U.S. policy into the larger equation of Cuban recovery and economic reform. Moving from a policy of isolation to one of investment and engagement will send a different message to Cuba and sets the stage for fruitful trade possibilities and for normalizing relations between the two countries. In addition, the United States will be sending a signal to other Latin America about its willingness to view the world in cooperative terms.
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Zimmerman Executive Editor – Georgetown Law Journal 2010 Chelsea “Rethinking The Cuban Trade Embargo: An Opportune Time To Mend a Broken Policy” Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2010/Zimmerman.pdf
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Moving from a policy of isolation to one of investment and engagement will send a different message to Cuba and sets the stage for fruitful trade possibilities and for normalizing relations between the two countries. the U S will be sending a signal to other Latin America about its willingness to view the world in cooperative terms.
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Signal of the plan cooperation with Cuba and Latin America more broadly
| 625 | 72 | 334 | 104 | 12 | 57 | 0.115385 | 0.548077 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,647 |
HAVANA, Cuba — At the last Summit of the Americas, held in Colombia in April, Washington’s rivals in Latin America and its political allies had the same piece of advice for better US diplomacy in the region: get over your Cuba fixation.
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Salon 1/02/2013 “Can Kerry make friends with Cuba?” http://www.salon.com/2013/01/02/can_kerry_make_friends_with_cuba/
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At the Summit of the Americas, Washington’s rivals in Latin America and its political allies had the same piece of advice for better US diplomacy in the region: get over your Cuba fixation.
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Cuba is a litmus test for Latin American relations
| 236 | 51 | 189 | 42 | 9 | 33 | 0.214286 | 0.785714 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,648 |
Stripping this whole thing bare, as far as I can tell, there is really no foreign policy reason why the United States does not have a normal, or least more natural, diplomatic and economic relationship with Cuba. In fact, there is a serious foreign policy downside for not having that. In Latin America, we just saw the president earlier in 2012 attend the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, where there was a full court, unanimous message from the center, center-left, right, center-right, and every single country in the region, including Washington's closest allies, telling Washington to get it together with Havana, it is time to move forward.
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Sweig Director for Latin American Studies Council on Foreign Relations & McMahon Editor CFR.org 2013 Julia & Robert “Talking Cuba” Interview with Julia Sweig Council on Foreign Relations 1/25 http://www.cfr.org/cuba/talking-cuba/p29879
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there is really no foreign policy reason why the U S does not have a normal, or least more natural, diplomatic and economic relationship with Cuba. there is a serious foreign policy downside for not having that. In Latin America, we just saw the president earlier in 2012 attend the Summit of the Americas where there was a full court, unanimous message from the center, center-left, right, center-right, and every single country in the region, including Washington's closest allies, telling Washington to get it together with Havana, it is time to move forward
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Economic engagement with Cuba is key to US shuttle diplomacy in Latin America
| 650 | 78 | 561 | 108 | 13 | 93 | 0.12037 | 0.861111 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,649 |
Cuba is suffering its worst economic crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, which eliminated one third of all Cuban foreign trade. Although the country is not experiencing 1991-levels of economic deprivation, the decline in Cuba’s GDP and the country’s isolation from the world economy renders this crisis more politically devastating than that of 1991. In the early 1990’s, the Cuban government relied on a reservoir of domestic goodwill generated by two decades of economic growth, nationalist successes (including the victories in the African Wars) and a sustained expansion of social services.
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Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
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Cuba is suffering its worst economic crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, which eliminated one third of all Cuban foreign trade. the decline in Cuba’s GDP and the country’s isolation from the world economy renders this crisis more politically devastating than that of 1991. In the early 1990’s, the Cuban government relied on a reservoir of domestic goodwill generated by two decades of economic growth, nationalist successes and a sustained expansion of social services.
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Cuba is in its worst economic crisis – risks instability
| 613 | 57 | 489 | 95 | 10 | 78 | 0.105263 | 0.821053 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,650 |
The Cuban political system has not yet passed the most important of tests, replacing its original generation of leaders with one of different formative experiences and vision, a successful inter-generational succession. This transition also invokes questions about Cuba’s civil-military relations, since almost half of the Politburo members are generals while the Communist Party, not the Armed Forces, is purported to be the country’s leading institution.
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Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
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The Cuban political system has not yet passed the most important of tests, replacing its original generation of leaders with one of different formative experiences and vision, a successful inter-generational succession. This transition also invokes questions about Cuba’s civil-military relations, since almost half of the Politburo members are generals while the Communist Party, is purported to be the country’s leading institution.
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Cuba’s next transition will be “the test” – Raul needs every chance he’s got
| 456 | 77 | 434 | 65 | 14 | 61 | 0.215385 | 0.938462 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,651 |
American policymakers should recognize the current situation as an ideal opportunity to negotiate an end to the conflict, and a chance for wide-ranging and unfettered interaction with Cuban elites and the whole of Cuban society. It would be a mistake to overestimate the vulnerability of the regime in the face of hostile policies or to personalize the bilateral relations, avoiding negotiation with Raul, just because he is a Castro or a member of the historical generation.
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Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
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American policymakers should recognize the current situation as an ideal opportunity to negotiate an end to the conflict, and a chance for wide-ranging and unfettered interaction It would be a mistake to overestimate the vulnerability of the regime in the face of hostile policies or to personalize the bilateral relations, avoiding negotiation with Raul, just because he is a Castro
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Now is key - social and political conditions in Cuba make reform likely
| 475 | 72 | 383 | 76 | 13 | 60 | 0.171053 | 0.789474 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,652 |
The processes of marketization and political liberalization create an opportunity for the U.S. to initiate actions that could lead to a proliferation of meaningful changes in Cuba. American support for both a democratic and an economically stable Cuba are far from mutually exclusive. As the experience of other countries demonstrates, economic and political reforms are intertwined. Democracy in the long run tends to produce stable governments but the process of getting there is inherently destabilizing. Multiparty elections, for instance, in the absence of a stabilizing economic and social environment tend to be destabilizing and often violent. A growing, market-oriented Cuban economy that enjoys substantial participation from the Cuban Diaspora will be a major deterrent against violence. There are numerous examples, world-wide, of the positive repercussions a transition to a market economy (the Cuban non-state sector would jump from 15% of GDP today to 35% in 2015) has for the independence of civil society. The United States should support such a course in Cuba.
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Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
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The processes of marketization and political liberalization create an opportunity for the U.S. to initiate actions that could lead to a proliferation of meaningful changes in Cuba. American support for both a democratic and an economically stable Cuba are far from mutually exclusive. economic and political reforms are intertwined. Democracy in the long run tends to produce stable governments but the process of getting there is inherently destabilizing. A growing, market-oriented Cuban economy that enjoys substantial participation from the Cuban Diaspora will be a major deterrent against violence. There are numerous examples, world-wide, of the positive repercussions a transition to a market economy has for the independence of civil society.
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Economic liberalization prevents violence and instability
| 1,078 | 58 | 750 | 163 | 6 | 110 | 0.03681 | 0.674847 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,653 |
Some will argue that focusing on market liberalization, while putting political reforms to the side, endangers Cuba's long-term prospects for liberty and freedom. This is a valid concern. Nevertheless, in normative terms, market reforms will vastly improve the lives of the Cuban people. The improved living conditions will give fringe groups with few resources the ability to focus their own efforts on political reform from within. Improved economic conditions, if used as a prerequisite to political reform, may also prevent a costly civil war during the inevitably painful transition.
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Perez JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis
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Some will argue that focusing on market liberalization, while putting political reforms to the side, endangers Cuba's long-term prospects for liberty and freedom. in normative terms, market reforms will vastly improve the lives of the Cuban people. The improved living conditions will give fringe groups with few resources the ability to focus their own efforts on political reform from within. Improved economic conditions, if used as a prerequisite to political reform, may also prevent a costly civil war during the inevitably painful transition
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Economic liberalization key to solve civil war
| 588 | 47 | 548 | 89 | 7 | 83 | 0.078652 | 0.932584 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,654 |
The Obama Administration’s cordial attitude towards the Cuban-American old-guard is a bizarre ideological commitment to those who did everything possible to prevent his reelection. Hard-liners’ insistence on rejecting negotiations in the Gross case is a transparent attempt to torpedo Obama’s overall dialogue approach with our adversaries, even when it clearly serves American national interests.
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Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2013 Arturo “Is Obama Acting Pragmatically in the Alan Gross Case?” The Havana Note http://thehavananote.com/2013/01/obama_acting_pragmatically_alan_gross_case
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Hard-liners’ insistence on rejecting negotiations in the Gross case is a transparent attempt to torpedo Obama’s overall dialogue approach with our adversaries,
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Acting despite Alan Gross’s imprisonment is a solvency argument for us – it makes the US look credible in the region
| 397 | 116 | 159 | 54 | 21 | 22 | 0.388889 | 0.407407 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,655 |
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars, which rage continuously, can easily escalate into big wars. Local conflicts have regional and global aspects. All of the conflicts in this tinderbox, which controls shipping lanes from the Indian Ocean into the Red Sea, can potentially give rise to regional, and indeed global conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers. Located in and around the Horn of Africa are the states of Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan and Kenya. Eritrea, which gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a 30-year civil war, is a major source of regional conflict. Eritrea has a nagging border dispute with Ethiopia which could easily ignite. The two countries fought a bloody border war from 1998-2000 over control of the town of Badme. Although a UN mandated body determined in 2002 that the disputed town belonged to Eritrea, Ethiopia has rejected the finding and so the conflict festers. Eritrea also fights a proxy war against Ethiopia in Somalia and in Ethiopia's rebellious Ogaden region. In Somalia, Eritrea is the primary sponsor of the al-Qaida-linked Islamic Courts Union which took control of Somalia in June, 2006. In November 2006, the ICU government declared jihad against Ethiopia and Kenya. Backed by the US, Ethiopia invaded Somalia last December to restore the recognized Transitional Federal Government to power which the ICU had deposed. Although the Ethiopian army successfully ousted the ICU from power in less than a week, backed by massive military and financial assistance from Eritrea, as well as Egypt and Libya, the ICU has waged a brutal insurgency against the TFG and the Ethiopian military for the past year. The senior ICU leadership, including Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and Sheikh Sharif Ahmed have received safe haven in Eritrea. In September, the exiled ICU leadership held a nine-day conference in the Eritrean capital of Asmara where they formed the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia headed by Ahmed. Eritrean President-for-life Isaias Afwerki declared his country's support for the insurgents stating, "The Eritrean people's support to the Somali people is consistent and historical, as well as a legal and moral obligation." Although touted in the West as a moderate, Ahmed has openly supported jihad and terrorism against Ethiopia, Kenya and the West. Aweys, for his part, is wanted by the FBI in connection with his role in the bombing of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. Then there is Eritrea's support for the Ogaden separatists in Ethiopia. The Ogaden rebels are Somali ethnics who live in the region bordering Somalia and Kenya. The rebellion is run by the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) which uses terror and sabotage as its preferred methods of warfare. It targets not only Ethiopian forces and military installations, but locals who wish to maintain their allegiance to Ethiopia or reach a negotiated resolution of the conflict. In their most sensationalist attack to date, in April ONLF terror forces attacked a Chinese-run oil installation in April killing nine Chinese and 65 Ethiopians. Ethiopia, for its part has fought a brutal counter-insurgency to restore its control over the region. Human rights organizations have accused Ethiopia of massive human rights abuses of civilians in Ogaden. Then there is Sudan. As Eric Reeves wrote in the Boston Globe on Saturday, "The brutal regime in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, has orchestrated genocidal counter-insurgency war in Darfur for five years, and is now poised for victory in its ghastly assault on the region's African populations." The Islamist government of Omar Hasan Ahmad al-Bashir is refusing to accept non-African states as members of the hybrid UN-African Union peacekeeping mission to Darfur that is due to replace the undermanned and demoralized African Union peacekeeping force whose mandate ends on December 31. Without its UN component of non-African states, the UN Security Council mandated force will be unable to operate effectively. Khartoum's veto led Jean-Marie Guehenno, the UN undersecretary for peacekeeping to warn last month that the entire peacekeeping mission may have to be aborted. And the Darfur region is not the only one at risk. Due to Khartoum's refusal to carry out the terms of its 2005 peace treaty with the Southern Sudanese that ended Khartoum's 20-year war and genocide against the region's Christian and animist population, the unsteady peace may be undone. Given Khartoum's apparent sprint to victory over the international community regarding Darfur, there is little reason to doubt that once victory is secured, it will renew its attacks in the south. The conflicts in the Horn of Africa have regional and global dimensions. Regionally, Egypt has played a central role in sponsoring and fomenting conflicts. Egypt's meddling advances its interest of preventing the African nations from mounting a unified challenge to Egypt's colonial legacy of extraordinary rights to the waters of the Nile River which flows through all countries of the region.
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Glick 7 (Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday, p. http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56&categoryid=56&subcategoryid=90&newsid=11568)
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Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars can easily escalate into big wars. Local conflicts have regional and global aspects. All conflicts in this tinderbox, which controls shipping lanes can give rise to regional, and indeed global conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers The conflicts in the Horn of Africa have regional and global dimensions
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African conflicts cause great power war
| 5,125 | 39 | 395 | 813 | 6 | 60 | 0.00738 | 0.073801 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,656 |
At worst, there is the possibility of nuclear attack1, whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, leading to the resumption of Korean War hostilities. On the Korean Peninsula itself, key population centres are well within short or medium range missiles. The whole of Japan is likely to come within North Korean missile range. Pyongyang has a population of over 2 million, Seoul (close to the North Korean border) 11 million, and Tokyo over 20 million. Even a limited nuclear exchange would result in a holocaust of unprecedented proportions. But the catastrophe within the region would not be the only outcome. New research indicates that even a limited nuclear war in the region would rearrange our global climate far more quickly than global warming. Westberg draws attention to new studies modelling the effects of even a limited nuclear exchange involving approximately 100 Hiroshima-sized 15 kt bombs2 (by comparison it should be noted that the United States currently deploys warheads in the range 100 to 477 kt, that is, individual warheads equivalent in yield to a range of 6 to 32 Hiroshimas).The studies indicate that the soot from the fires produced would lead to a decrease in global temperature by 1.25 degrees Celsius for a period of 6-8 years.3 In Westberg’s view: That is not global winter, but the nuclear darkness will cause a deeper drop in temperature than at any time during the last 1000 years. The temperature over the continents would decrease substantially more than the global average. A decrease in rainfall over the continents would also follow…The period of nuclear darkness will cause much greater decrease in grain production than 5% and it will continue for many years...hundreds of millions of people will die from hunger…To make matters even worse, such amounts of smoke injected into the stratosphere would cause a huge reduction in the Earth’s protective ozone.4 These, of course, are not the only consequences. Reactors might also be targeted, causing further mayhem and downwind radiation effects, superimposed on a smoking, radiating ruin left by nuclear next-use. Millions of refugees would flee the affected regions. The direct impacts, and the follow-on impacts on the global economy via ecological and food insecurity, could make the present global financial crisis pale by comparison. How the great powers, especially the nuclear weapons states respond to such a crisis, and in particular, whether nuclear weapons are used in response to nuclear first-use, could make or break the global non proliferation and disarmament regimes. There could be many unanticipated impacts on regional and global security relationships5, with subsequent nuclear breakout and geopolitical turbulence, including possible loss-of-control over fissile material or warheads in the chaos of nuclear war, and aftermath chain-reaction affects involving other potential proliferant states. The Korean nuclear proliferation issue is not just a regional threat but a global one that warrants priority consideration from the international community.
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Hayes and Green 10 (Peter, Professor of International Relations – Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and Director – Nautilus Institute, and Michael Hamel, Victoria University, “The Path Not Taken, the Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia”, Nautilus Institute Special Report, 1-5, http://www.nautil us.org/fora/security/10001HayesHamalGreen.pdf)
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there is the possibility of nuclear attack , whether by intention, miscalculation, or merely accident, leading to the resumption of Korean War hostilities nuclear exchange would result in a holocaust of unprecedented proportions even a limited nuclear war in the region would rearrange our global climate far more quickly than global warming. soot from fires would lead to a decrease in global temperature by 1.25 degrees the nuclear darkness will cause a deeper drop in temperature than at any time during the last 1000 years. nuclear darkness will cause much greater decrease in grain production hundreds of millions of people will die from hunger smoke would cause a huge reduction in ozone. The direct impacts, and the follow-on impacts on the global economy via ecological and food insecurity, could make the present global financial crisis pale by comparison. How the great powers, respond could make or break the global non proliferation and disarmament regimes. There could be many unanticipated impacts on regional and global security relationships5, with subsequent nuclear breakout and geopolitical turbulence and aftermath chain-reaction affects involving other potential proliferant states
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North Korean conflict causes extinction
| 3,079 | 39 | 1,202 | 476 | 5 | 182 | 0.010504 | 0.382353 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,657 |
Over the past several years, maritime attacks have become more violent, more frequent and clearly more organized. It is believed that militant groups, particularly in South East Asia, are practicing hijacking ships for their possible use as weapons. Of all types of vessels oil and chemical tankers are perhaps the most attractive targets for terrorists. These vessels are manned by smaller crews and loaded with volatile substances that could potentially cause significant damage. According to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) attacks against tankers are growing at an alarming rate. While all eyes are placed on the area surrounding the Malacca Straits, the world oil bottleneck, and on the Indonesian coast off Aceh, very little attention is placed on the U.S. underbelly of the Caribbean and the softer targets in the region closest to America's back yard: Trinidad, Venezuela and the Bahamas. These Caribbean countries are among the short list of natural gas producing countries and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exporters. Trinidad and Tobago alone account for 80% (1st quarter 2004) of all U.S. LNG imports, up from 68% in 2002. Therefore, any incident involving an LNG tanker along the Caribbean routes could harm not only U.S. energy security but also the economies of the Caribbean islands, affecting tourism and other industries decades. Existing well heads in the U.S. are being depleted while demand for natural gas is expected to rise 2% a year. Imports from. LNG and Tanker Terrorism U.S. Department of Energy figures paint a bleak picture for U.S. dependence on imported energy in the coming Canada, whose own energy demand is increasing, are projected to pick up some of the burden. But Canada's gas demand is growing faster than expected, also due to the gas intensive process of converting tar sands to crude oil, and thus its ability to export gas to the U.S. is being diminished. The U.S. will therefore be required to import more of its gas in LNG form from Nigeria, Sao Tome, Trinidad, Venezuela and the Persian Gulf. Today 2% of total gas usage in the U.S. is derived from LNG. By 2010 this figure is likely to grow to 10%. LNG terminals and tankers present potential targets for terrorists. In the pre-9/11 world LNG tankers were considered among the safest ships at sea. These tankers are still as safe as is possible for a vessel of this nature today. But this statement is only valid if one pre-supposes that terrorists do not want an easily attainable weapon of mass destruction. The potential for mass casualty maritime suicide terrorism has changed our perceptions of safety at sea especially when it comes to lean crewed LNG tankers and other PCG (Petro/chemical/gas) and ships. With maritime terrorists currently combing the world for ways to make their message reach as wide an audience as possible, LNG tankers could be their perfect mass casualty weapon.
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Kelshall 4 (Candyce Kelshall, 11/15/04 (Director of Bluewater Defence and Security Ltd, Radical Islam and LNG in Trinidad and Tobago, http://www.iags.org/n1115045.htm)
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maritime attacks have become more violent, more frequent and clearly more organized militant groups, particularly in South East Asia, are practicing hijacking ships for their possible use as weapons. Of all types of vessels oil and chemical tankers are perhaps the most attractive targets for terrorists. These vessels are manned by smaller crews and loaded with volatile substances that could potentially cause significant damage. attacks against tankers are growing at an alarming rate. While all eyes are placed on the area surrounding the Malacca Straits, the world oil bottleneck, and on the Indonesian coast off Aceh, very little attention is placed on the U.S. underbelly of the Caribbean and the softer targets in the region closest to America's back yard: Trinidad, Venezuela and the Bahamas. These Caribbean countries are among the short list of natural gas producing countries and liquefied natural gas (LNG) Trinidad and Tobago alone account for 80% of all U.S. LNG imports any incident involving an LNG tanker along the Caribbean routes could harm not only U.S. energy security but also the economies of the Caribbean islands, affecting tourism and other industries The U.S. will therefore be required to import more of its gas in LNG form from Nigeria, Sao Tome, Trinidad, Venezuela and the Persian Gulf. Today 2% of total gas usage in the U.S. is derived from LNG. By 2010 this figure is likely to grow to 10%. LNG terminals and tankers present potential targets for terrorists These tankers are still as safe as is possible for a vessel of this nature today. But this statement is only valid if one pre-supposes that terrorists do not want an easily attainable weapon of mass destruction potential for mass casualty maritime suicide terrorism has changed our perceptions of safety at sea especially when it comes to lean crewed LNG tankers With maritime terrorists currently combing the world for ways to make their message reach as wide an audience as possible, LNG tankers could be their perfect mass casualty weapon.
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Caribbean terrorists target LNG tankers – Probability is high due to American reliance on LNG
| 2,937 | 93 | 2,039 | 482 | 15 | 332 | 0.03112 | 0.688797 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,658 |
NET ASSESSMENT: While there is no adequate way in which to determine the probability of a terrorist attack on the proposed urban LNG facility and inland waterway transit routing, there is adequate grounds to judge that such an attack would be consistent with terrorists demonstrated intent and capability. There is also a basis to judge that likely enhanced security measures would not significantly reduce the risk. While there are some differences among experts about the conditions needed to generate a catastrophic explosion and about the precise extent of the resulting damage, there is significant grounds to conclude that a high risk exists of catastrophic damage from the types of attacks terrorists are capable of mounting. Those damage levels would overwhelm regional trauma, burn, and emergency medical capabilities. The LNG facility’s insurance is likely to be inadequate to fully compensate victims and to rebuild facilities.
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Clark 5 (Richard Clark, 2005 - an internationally recognized expert on security, including homeland security, national security, cyber security, and counterterrorism, served in the United States government from 1973 to 2003, with a specialization in the issues of intelligence and terrorism, A Security Risk Management Analysis for ATTORNEY GENERAL PATRICK LYNCH RHODE ISLAND, http://www.projo.com/extra/2005/lng/clarkereport.pdf)
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determine the probability of a terrorist attack on the proposed urban LNG facility and inland waterway transit routing, such an attack would be consistent with terrorists demonstrated intent and capability. likely enhanced security measures would not significantly reduce the risk. there is significant grounds to conclude that a high risk exists of catastrophic damage from the types of attacks terrorists are capable of mounting. Those damage levels would overwhelm regional trauma, burn, and emergency medical capabilities. The LNG facility’s insurance is likely to be inadequate to fully compensate victims and to rebuild facilities.
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Terrorists have the intent and capability to attack and explode an LNG tanker
| 940 | 78 | 637 | 144 | 13 | 93 | 0.090278 | 0.645833 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,659 |
Under the leadership of Trinidad and Tobago's effective new and aggressive Minister for National Security Senator Martin Joseph, the law enforcement units in Trinidad and Tobago are well trained, able and resourceful and it is to their credit that they have held the forces of terrorism at bay thus far. The Joint Operations Command Center set up in the late 1990s has been spearheading the fight against maritime crime, narcotic interdiction, and arms smuggling and the ethos of information sharing and joint operations promoted by the Center was a radical new departure in intelligence gathering and operations in the region. New systems are currently being put in place to ensure that intelligence is focused and operations driven. But all this may not be enough to prevent terrorists from targeting LNG facilities in the serene Caribbean. Despite U.S. reliance on the country for its LNG deliveries, the established presence of fundamentalists in the region and its increasing attractiveness as a target the area has received little attention in the counterterrorism community. To address the danger the eyes of the world and the international co-operation in intelligence sharing, training, and operational practice should now focus upon this undeclared maritime hotspot which has fallen under the radar. If we are to ensure the safety of the gas deliveries to the U.S., the safety of the transit zones and the islands located along the Caribbean shipping lanes then we have to ensure that targets are hardened around the world and not just in the current piracy hotspots.
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Kelshall 4 (Candyce Kelshall, 11/15/04 (Director of Bluewater Defence and Security Ltd, Radical Islam and LNG in Trinidad and Tobago, http://www.iags.org/n1115045.htm)
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the law enforcement units in Trinidad and Tobago are well trained, able and resourceful and it is to their credit that they have held the forces of terrorism at bay thus far. . But all this may not be enough to prevent terrorists from targeting LNG facilities in the serene Caribbean. Despite U.S. reliance on the country for its LNG deliveries, the established presence of fundamentalists in the region and its increasing attractiveness as a target the area has received little attention in the counterterrorism community operational practice should now focus upon this undeclared maritime hotspot which has fallen under the radar
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Large risk of Caribbean LNG terrorism despite better law enforcement measures
| 1,580 | 77 | 633 | 253 | 11 | 102 | 0.043478 | 0.403162 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,660 |
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a hazardous fuel frequently shipped in massive tankers from overseas to U.S. ports. LNG is also manufactured domestically and is often stored near population centers. Because LNG infrastructure is highly visible and easily identified, it can be vulnerable to terrorist attack. Since September 11, 2001, the U.S. LNG industry and federal agencies have put new measures in place to protect LNG infrastructure and respond to the possibility of terrorism. Nonetheless, public concerns about LNG risks continue to raise questions about LNG security. While LNG has historically made up a small part of U.S. natural gas supplies, rising gas prices and the possibility of domestic shortages are sharply increasing LNG demand. Faced with this growth in demand and public concerns, Congress is examining the adequacy of federal LNG security initiatives.
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Parfomak 3 (Paul, Specialist in Science and Technology, Resources, Science, and Industry Division @ CRS, "Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Infrastructure Security: Background and Issues for Congress," www.energy.ca.gov/lng/documents/CRS_RPT_LNG_INFRA_SECURITY.PDF)
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(LNG) is a hazardous fuel frequently shipped in massive tankers from overseas to U.S. ports. LNG is also near population centers. Because LNG infrastructure is highly visible and easily identified, it can be vulnerable to terrorist attack public concerns about LNG risks continue to raise questions about LNG security rising gas prices and the possibility of domestic shortages are sharply increasing LNG demand
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LNG infrastructure is uniquely vulnerable to terrorist attack
| 874 | 61 | 411 | 134 | 8 | 63 | 0.059701 | 0.470149 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,661 |
Nonetheless, these successful attacks abroad, the expressed desire by terrorists to target U.S. economic interests, and the potential outcome of a terrorist attack on a tanker have led Congress and the Administration to conclude that protective efforts are warranted. A successful attack on an energy commodity tanker could have substantial public safety, environmental, and economic consequences. Public safety and environmental consequences of an attack vary by commodity. For instance, highly combustible commodities like LNG and LPG have the potential to catch fire, or in a more unlikely scenario- -if they are trapped in a confined space such as under a dock-- explode, posing a threat to public safety. Crude oil and heavy petroleum products remain in the environment after they are spilled and must be removed, potentially causing significant environmental damage. Finally, the economic consequences of a major attack could include a temporary price spike reflecting fears of further attacks, and supply disruptions associated with delays of shipments if major transit routes, key facilities, or key ports are closed. The loss of one cargo of an energy commodity might not have a significant, sustained price impact. However, if an attack results in port closures for multiple days or weeks, price responses and higher costs could mean losses in economic welfare to consumers, businesses, and government amounting to billions of dollars.
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GAO Report 7 (FEDERAL EFFORTS NEEDED TO ADDRESS CHALLENGES IN PREVENTING AND RESPONDING TO TERRORIST ATTACKS ON ENERGY COMMODITY TANKERS, 12/10, lexis)
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successful attacks abroad, the expressed desire by terrorists to target U.S. economic interests, and the potential outcome of a terrorist attack on a tanker have led Congress and the Administration to conclude that protective efforts are warranted. A successful attack on an energy commodity tanker could have substantial public safety, environmental, and economic consequences. highly combustible commodities like LNG and LPG have the potential to catch fire, or -- explode, posing a threat to public safety , the economic consequences of a major attack could include a temporary price spike reflecting fears of further attacks, and supply disruptions associated with delays of shipments if major transit routes, key facilities, or key ports are closed. The loss of one cargo of an energy commodity might not have a significant, sustained price impact. However, if an attack results in port closures for multiple days or weeks, price responses and higher costs could mean losses in economic welfare to consumers, businesses, and government amounting to billions of dollars.
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LNG tanker attack would crush the global economy
| 1,447 | 49 | 1,077 | 220 | 8 | 165 | 0.036364 | 0.75 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,662 |
The bulk of the world's LNG trade moves by sea. Singapore's Defense Minister, Rear Adm. Teo Chee Hean, says the threat from maritime terrorism is real and an attack against a major shipping checkpoint such as the Suez Canal or Strait of Malacca could have serious repercussions for global trade. Dow Jones quoted Hean as saying, "For terrorists, the payoff from a successful maritime attack could be considerable. The damage could be horrific if terrorists turned supertankers, LPG -- liquid petroleum gas -- LNG or chemical carriers into floating bombs." His comments were echoed by former Bush security official Richard Clarke.
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Mihailescu 4 (ANDREA R. MIHAILESCU, 7/13/04 (Analysis: LNG a security risk to the U.S.?, UPI, lexis)
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The bulk of the world's LNG trade moves by sea. Singapore's Defense Minister says the threat from maritime terrorism is real and an attack against a major shipping checkpoint such as the Suez Canal or Strait of Malacca could have serious repercussions for global trade. For terrorists, the payoff from a successful maritime attack could be considerable. The damage could be horrific if terrorists turned supertankers LNG into floating bombs
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LNG attack would wreck global trade
| 629 | 35 | 440 | 101 | 6 | 70 | 0.059406 | 0.693069 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,663 |
So, how is this legal with an embargo in place? In 2000, Congress passed reforms to that embargo allowing U.S.-based companies to export approved products to Cuba. And it’s not just beans. In fact, there are hundreds of items on a United States Commerce Department list of goods that can be exported to Cuba.
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CNBC 3/25/2012 “Doing Business with Cuba, Despite Embargo” http://www.cnbc.com/id/46785161
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Congress passed reforms allowing U.S.-based companies to export approved products to Cuba. there are hundreds of items that can be exported to Cuba
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Status quo solves investment internal link - loopholes allow investment now
| 308 | 76 | 147 | 54 | 11 | 23 | 0.203704 | 0.425926 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,664 |
Nonetheless, the system might have reached a point of equilibrium under which an unconditional lifting of the US embargo might still accrue enough economic benefit to the Cuban government that it leads to a roll back of some recent reforms in order to cut loses in the political, albeit informal, arena. This will be a strong reason to oppose an unconditional lifting on the embargo for those who care about the wishes for freedom and welfare of the Cuban people. Many international observers oppose the US embargo on the basis of several debatable assumptions. One is the belief that the embargo has served the Castro government as an excuse for its economic failures, and once lifted the excuse will disappear. Another assumption is that Cubans don´t know that the embargo might have constrained their economy, but not as much as the restrictions of virtually all economic activity by the Cuban government. There are also many Cubans that believe that the US embargo is the only leverage left to pressure the Cuban government to lift internal restrictions in both the economic and the political fronts. It is doubtful that, under the current conditions, a non-negotiated lifting of the US embargo is likely to bring about democracy in Cuba.
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Sanguinetty expert of the political economy of policy reform & former economic planner in Cuba 2013 Jorge “Who benefits and loses if the US-Cuba embargo is lifted?” Democracy, Development and Institutions 4/08 http://devresearchcenter.org/2013/04/08/who-benefits-and-loses-if-the-us-cuba-embargo-is-lifted-by-jorge-a-sanguinetty/
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an unconditional lifting of the US embargo might still accrue enough economic benefit to the Cuban government that it leads to a roll back of recent reforms This will be a strong reason to oppose an unconditional lifting on the embargo It is doubtful that a non-negotiated lifting of the US embargo is likely to bring about democracy in Cuba.
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B) Unconditionally lifting the embargo roll back of reforms
| 1,242 | 60 | 342 | 207 | 9 | 60 | 0.043478 | 0.289855 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,665 |
Ending the embargo and lifting the ban for U.S. tourists to travel to Cuba would be a major concession totally out of proportion to recent changes in the island. If the U.S. were to lift the travel ban without major reforms in Cuba, there would be significant implications: Money from American tourists would flow into businesses owned by the Castro government thus strengthening state enterprises. The tourist industry is controlled by the military and General Raul Castro, Fidel’s brother.¶ American tourists will have limited contact with Cubans. Most Cuban resorts are built in isolated areas, are off limits to the average Cuban, and are controlled by Cuba’s efficient security apparatus. Most Americans don’t speak Spanish, have but limited contact with ordinary Cubans, and are not interested in visiting the island to subvert its regime. Law 88 enacted in 1999 prohibits Cubans from receiving publications from tourists. Penalties include jail terms.¶ While providing the Castro government with much needed dollars, the economic impact of tourism on the Cuban population would be limited. Dollars will trickle down to the Cuban poor in only small quantities, while state and foreign enterprises will benefit most.¶ Tourist dollars would be spent on products, i.e., rum, tobacco, etc., produced by state enterprises, and tourists would stay in hotels owned partially or wholly by the Cuban government. The principal airline shuffling tourists around the island, Gaviota, is owned and operated by the Cuban military.¶ Over the past decades hundred of thousands of Canadian, European and Latin American tourists have visited the island. Cuba is not more democratic today. If anything, Cuba is more totalitarian, with the state and its control apparatus having been strengthened as a result of the influx of tourist dollars.¶ A large influx of American tourists into Cuba would have a dislocating effect on the economies of smaller Caribbean islands such as Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and even Florida, highly dependent on tourism for their well-being. Careful planning must take place, lest we create significant hardships and social problems in these countries.¶ If the embargo is lifted, limited trade with, and investments in Cuba would develop. Yet there are significant implications.¶ Trade¶ All trade with Cuba is done with state owned businesses. Since Cuba has very little credit and is a major debtor nation, the U.S. and its businesses would have to provide credits to Cuban enterprises. There is a long history of Cuba defaulting on loans.¶ Cuba is not likely to buy a substantial amount of products in the U.S. Cuba can buy in any other country and it is not likely to abandon its relationship with China, Russia, Venezuela, and Iran to become a major trading partner of the U.S.¶ Cuba has very little to sell in the U.S.¶ Investments¶ In Cuba, foreign investors cannot partner with private Cuban citizens. They can only invest in the island through minority joint ventures with the government and its state enterprises.¶ The dominant enterprise in the Cuban economy is the Grupo GAESA, controlled by the Cuban military. Most investments are done through or with GAESA. Therefore, American companies willing to invest in Cuba will have to partner mostly with the Cuban military.¶ Cuba ranks 176 out of 177 countries in the world in terms of economic freedom. Outshined only by North Korea. It ranks as one of the most unattractive investments next to Iran, Zimbabwe, Libya, Mali, etc.¶ Foreign investors cannot hire, fire, or pay workers directly. They must go through the Cuban government employment agency which selects the workers. Investors pay the government in dollars or euros and the government pays the workers a meager 10% in Cuban pesos.¶ Corruption is pervasive, undermining equity and respect for the rule of law.
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Suchlicki professor of history at the School of International Studies at the University of Miami 4/04/2013 Jaime DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT AND INSTITUTIONS A BLOG SPONSORED BY THE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER What if…the U.S. Ended the Cuba Travel Ban and the Embargo? http://devresearchcenter.org/2013/04/12/what-if-the-u-s-ended-the-cuba-travel-ban-and-the-embargo/#more-219
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Ending the embargo would be a major concession totally out of proportion to recent changes in the island. there would be significant implications: Money from American tourists would flow into businesses owned by the Castro government thus strengthening state enterprises. Dollars will trickle down to the Cuban poor in only small quantities, while state and foreign enterprises will benefit most If the embargo is lifted, limited trade with, and investments in Cuba would develop. Yet there are significant implications All trade with Cuba is done with state owned businesses. the U.S. and its businesses would have to provide credits to Cuban enterprises. In Cuba, foreign investors cannot partner with private Cuban citizens. They can only invest in the island through minority joint ventures with the government and its state enterprises. American companies willing to invest in Cuba will have to partner mostly with the Cuban military Foreign investors cannot hire, fire, or pay workers directly. They must go through the Cuban government employment agency which selects the workers. Investors pay the government in dollars or euros and the government pays the workers a meager 10% in Cuban pesos. Corruption is pervasive,
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Investment doesn’t reform – all the money goes through the government
| 3,875 | 69 | 1,226 | 621 | 11 | 191 | 0.017713 | 0.307568 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
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2013
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3,666 |
The US government contractor is Alan Gross, jailed on the island since December 2009. Cuban authorities arrested Gross while he worked on a USAID project to set up satellite communications gear that would allow members of Cuba’s Jewish community to connect to the internet without going through government servers.
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Salon 1/02/2013 “Can Kerry make friends with Cuba?” http://www.salon.com/2013/01/02/can_kerry_make_friends_with_cuba/
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Cuban authorities arrested Gross while he worked on a USAID project
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Engagement won’t snowball - Alan Gross’s jailing
| 314 | 49 | 67 | 49 | 7 | 11 | 0.142857 | 0.22449 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,667 |
It is important to remember that the risk of biological attack is very low and that, partly because viruses can mutate easily, the potential for natural outbreaks is unpredictable. The key is having the right tools in case of an outbreak, epidemic or pandemic, and these include a plan for containment, open channels of communication, scientific research and knowledge sharing. In most cases involving a potential pathogen, the news can appear far worse than the actual threat. Infectious Disease Propagation Since the beginning of February there have been occurrences of H5N1 (bird flu) in Cambodia, H1N1 (swine flu) in India and a new, or novel, coronavirus (a member of the same virus family as SARS) in the United Kingdom. In the past week, a man from Nepal traveled through several countries and eventually ended up in the United States, where it was discovered he had a drug-resistant form of tuberculosis, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a report stating that antibiotic-resistant infections in hospitals are on the rise. In addition, the United States is experiencing a worse-than-normal flu season, bringing more attention to the influenza virus and other infectious diseases. The potential for a disease to spread is measured by its effective reproduction number, or R-value, a numerical score that indicates whether a disease will propagate or die out. When the disease first occurs and no preventive measures are in place, the reproductive potential of the disease is referred to as R0, the basic reproduction rate. The numerical value is the number of cases a single case can cause on average during its infectious period. An R0 above 1 means the disease will likely spread (many influenza viruses have an R0 between 2 and 3, while measles had an R0 value of between 12 and 18), while an R-value of less than 1 indicates a disease will likely die out. Factors contributing to the spread of the disease include the length of time people are contagious, how mobile they are when they are contagious, how the disease spreads (through the air or bodily fluids) and how susceptible the population is. The initial R0, which assumes no inherent immunity, can be decreased through control measures that bring the value either near or below 1, stopping the further spread of the disease. Both the coronavirus family and the influenza virus are RNA viruses, meaning they replicate using only RNA (which can be thought of as a single-stranded version of DNA, the more commonly known double helix containing genetic makeup). The rapid RNA replication used by many viruses is very susceptible to mutations, which are simply errors in the replication process. Some mutations can alter the behavior of a virus, including the severity of infection and how the virus is transmitted. The combination of two different strains of a virus, through a process known as antigenic shift, can result in what is essentially a new virus. Influenza, because it infects multiple species, is the hallmark example of this kind of evolution. Mutations can make the virus unfamiliar to the body's immune system. The lack of established immunity within a population enables a disease to spread more rapidly because the population is less equipped to battle the disease. The trajectory of a mutated virus (or any other infectious disease) can reach three basic levels of magnitude. An outbreak is a small, localized occurrence of a pathogen. An epidemic indicates a more widespread infection that is still regional, while a pandemic indicates that the disease has spread to a global level. Virologists are able to track mutations by deciphering the genetic sequence of new infections. It is this technology that helped scientists to determine last year that a smattering of respiratory infections discovered in the Middle East was actually a novel coronavirus. And it is possible that through a series of mutations a virus like H5N1 could change in such a way to become easily transmitted between humans. Lessons Learned There have been several influenza pandemics throughout history. The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic is often cited as a worst-case scenario, since it infected between 20 and 40 percent of the world's population, killing roughly 2 percent of those infected. In more recent history, smaller incidents, including an epidemic of the SARS virus in 2003 and what was technically defined as a pandemic of the swine flu (H1N1) in 2009, caused fear of another pandemic like the 1918 occurrence. The spread of these two diseases was contained before reaching catastrophic levels, although the economic impact from fear of the diseases reached beyond the infected areas. Previous pandemics have underscored the importance of preparation, which is essential to effective disease management. The World Health Organization lays out a set of guidelines for pandemic prevention and containment. The general principles of preparedness include stockpiling vaccines, which is done by both the United States and the European Union (although the possibility exists that the vaccines may not be effective against a new virus). In the event of an outbreak, the guidelines call for developed nations to share vaccines with developing nations. Containment strategies beyond vaccines include quarantine of exposed individuals, limited travel and additional screenings at places where the virus could easily spread, such as airports. Further measures include the closing of businesses, schools and borders. Individual measures can also be taken to guard against infection. These involve general hygienic measures -- avoiding mass gatherings, thoroughly washing hands and even wearing masks in specific, high-risk situations. However, airborne viruses such as influenza are still the most difficult to contain because of the method of transmission. Diseases like noroviruses, HIV or cholera are more serious but have to be transmitted by blood, other bodily fluids or fecal matter. The threat of a rapid pandemic is thereby slowed because it is easier to identify potential contaminates and either avoid or sterilize them. Research is another important aspect of overall preparedness. Knowledge gained from studying the viruses and the ready availability of information can be instrumental in tracking diseases. For example, the genomic sequence of the novel coronavirus was made available, helping scientists and doctors in different countries to readily identify the infection in limited cases and implement quarantine procedures as necessary. There have been only 13 documented cases of the novel coronavirus, so much is unknown regarding the disease. Recent cases in the United Kingdom indicate possible human-to-human transmission. Further sharing of information relating to the novel coronavirus can aid in both treatment and containment. Ongoing research into viruses can also help make future vaccines more efficient against possible mutations, though this type of research is not without controversy. A case in point is research on the H5N1 virus. H5N1 first appeared in humans in 1997. Of the more than 600 cases that have appeared since then, more than half have resulted in death. However, the virus is not easily transmitted because it must cross from bird to human. Human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is very rare, with only a few suspected incidents in the known history of the disease. While there is an H5N1 vaccine, it is possible that a new variation of the vaccine would be needed were the virus to mutate into a form that was transmittable between humans. Vaccines can take months or even years to develop, but preliminary research on the virus, before an outbreak, can help speed up development. In December 2011, two separate research labs, one in the United States and one in the Netherlands, sought to publish their research on the H5N1 virus. Over the course of their research, these labs had created mutations in the virus that allowed for airborne transmission between ferrets. These mutations also caused other changes, including a decrease in the virus's lethality and robustness (the ability to survive outside the carrier). Publication of the research was delayed due to concerns that the results could increase the risk of accidental release of the virus by encouraging further research, or that the information could be used by terrorist organizations to conduct a biological attack. Eventually, publication of papers by both labs was allowed. However, the scientific community imposed a voluntary moratorium in order to allow the community and regulatory bodies to determine the best practices moving forward. This voluntary ban was lifted for much of the world on Jan. 24, 2013. On Feb. 21, the National Institutes of Health in the United States issued proposed guidelines for federally funded labs working with H5N1. Once standards are set, decisions will likely be made on a case-by-case basis to allow research to continue. Fear of a pandemic resulting from research on H5N1 continues even after the moratorium was lifted. Opponents of the research cite the possibility that the virus will be accidentally released or intentionally used as a bioweapon, since information in scientific publications would be considered readily available. The Risk-Reward Equation The risk of an accidental release of H5N1 is similar to that of other infectious pathogens currently being studied. Proper safety standards are key, of course, and experts in the field have had a year to determine the best way to proceed, balancing safety and research benefits. Previous work with the virus was conducted at biosafety level three out of four, which requires researchers wearing respirators and disposable gowns to work in pairs in a negative pressure environment. While many of these labs are part of universities, access is controlled either through keyed entry or even palm scanners. There are roughly 40 labs that submitted to the voluntary ban. Those wishing to resume work after the ban was lifted must comply with guidelines requiring strict national oversight and close communication and collaboration with national authorities. The risk of release either through accident or theft cannot be completely eliminated, but given the established parameters the risk is minimal. The use of the pathogen as a biological weapon requires an assessment of whether a non-state actor would have the capabilities to isolate the virulent strain, then weaponize and distribute it. Stratfor has long held the position that while terrorist organizations may have rudimentary capabilities regarding biological weapons, the likelihood of a successful attack is very low. Given that the laboratory version of H5N1 -- or any influenza virus, for that matter -- is a contagious pathogen, there would be two possible modes that a non-state actor would have to instigate an attack. The virus could be refined and then aerosolized and released into a populated area, or an individual could be infected with the virus and sent to freely circulate within a population. There are severe constraints that make success using either of these methods unlikely. The technology needed to refine and aerosolize a pathogen for a biological attack is beyond the capability of most non-state actors. Even if they were able to develop a weapon, other factors such as wind patterns and humidity can render an attack ineffective. Using a human carrier is a less expensive method, but it requires that the biological agent be a contagion. Additionally, in order to infect the large number of people necessary to start an outbreak, the infected carrier must be mobile while contagious, something that is doubtful with a serious disease like small pox. The carrier also cannot be visibly ill because that would limit the necessary human contact. As far as continued research is concerned, there is a risk-reward equation to consider. The threat of a terrorist attack using biological weapons is very low. And while it is impossible to predict viral outbreaks, it is important to be able to recognize a new strain of virus that could result in an epidemic or even a pandemic, enabling countries to respond more effectively. All of this hinges on the level of preparedness of developed nations and their ability to rapidly exchange information, conduct research and promote individual awareness of the threat.
|
Keller 3/7 (Rebecca – Analyst at Stratfor, Post-Doctoral Fellow at University of Colorado at Boulder, 2013, "Bioterrorism and the Pandemic Potential," http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/bioterrorism-and-pandemic-potential)
|
the risk of biological attack is very low the news can appear far worse than the actual threat. The use of the pathogen as a biological weapon requires an assessment of whether a non-state actor would have the capabilities to isolate the strain, then weaponize and distribute it while terrorist organizations may have rudimentary capabilities the likelihood of a successful attack is very low. There are severe constraints that make success of these methods unlikely The technology needed to refine and aerosolize a pathogen for a biological attack is beyond capability factors such as wind patterns and humidity can render an attack ineffective Using a human carrier requires that the biological agent be a contagion the infected carrier must be mobile while contagious, something doubtful with a serious disease The carrier cannot be visibly ill The threat of a terrorist attack using biological weapons is very low
|
Risk of bioterrorism is extremely low – several constraints
| 12,381 | 59 | 917 | 1,969 | 9 | 147 | 0.004571 | 0.074657 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,668 |
3. Germ warfare!Like chemical agents, biological weapons have never lived up to their billing in popular culture. Consider the 1995 medical thriller Outbreak, in which a highly contagious virus takes out entire towns. The reality is quite different. Weaponized smallpox escaped from a Soviet laboratory in Aralsk, Kazakhstan, in 1971; three people died, no epidemic followed. In 1979, weapons-grade anthrax got out of a Soviet facility in Sverdlovsk (now called Ekaterinburg); 68 died, no epidemic. The loss of life was tragic, but no greater than could have been caused by a single conventional bomb. In 1989, workers at a US government facility near Washington were accidentally exposed to Ebola virus. They walked around the community and hung out with family and friends for several days before the mistake was discovered. No one died. The fact is, evolution has spent millions of years conditioning mammals to resist germs. Consider the Black Plague. It was the worst known pathogen in history, loose in a Middle Ages society of poor public health, awful sanitation, and no antibiotics. Yet it didn’t kill off humanity. Most people who were caught in the epidemic survived. Any superbug introduced into today’s Western world would encounter top-notch public health, excellent sanitation, and an array of medicines specifically engineered to kill bioagents. Perhaps one day some aspiring Dr. Evil will invent a bug that bypasses the immune system. Because it is possible some novel superdisease could be invented, or that existing pathogens like smallpox could be genetically altered to make them more virulent (two-thirds of those who contract natural smallpox survive), biological agents are a legitimate concern. They may turn increasingly troublesome as time passes and knowledge of biotechnology becomes harder to control, allowing individuals or small groups to cook up nasty germs as readily as they can buy guns today. But no superplague has ever come close to wiping out humanity before, and it seems unlikely to happen in the future.
|
Easterbrook 3 (Gregg, Senior Fellow – New Republic, “We’re All Gonna Die!”, Wired Magazine, July, http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=1&topic=&topic_set=)
|
bio weapons have never lived up to their billing in pop culture. Weaponized smallpox escaped from a Soviet laboratory three died, no epidemic followed. In 79, weapons-grade anthrax got out 68 died, no epidemic. The loss of life was no greater than a single conventional bomb. In 89, workers at a US government facility were exposed to Ebola They walked around and hung out with family and friends for days No one died. evolution has spent millions of years conditioning mammals to resist germs. Consider the Black Plague. It was the worst known pathogen in history Yet it didn’t kill off humanity. Most people survived. Any superbug introduced into today’s Western world would encounter top-notch public health, excellent sanitation, and an array of medicines specifically engineered to kill bioagents. no superplague has ever come close to wiping out humanity before, and it seems unlikely to happen in the future.
|
No pandemic or extinction – history proves
| 2,047 | 42 | 915 | 323 | 7 | 149 | 0.021672 | 0.4613 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,669 |
Myth No. 1 An LNG tanker holds thirty three million gallons of LNG, or twenty billion gallons of natural gas, the energy equivalent of fifty five Hiroshima bombs.
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AS Kalelkar, 8/2006, Dr. G. A. Melhem (President and CEO @ ioMosaic), Dr. A. S. Kalelkar (Principal Consultant @ ioMosaic), Dr. S. Saraf (partner @ ioMosaic), and Henry Ozog (general partner @ ioMosaic), “Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Facts from the Myths,” ioMosaic Corporation (a leading provider of safety and risk management consulting services), http://archives1.iomosaic.com/whitepapers/Managing%20LNG%20Risks.pdf
|
Myth An LNG tanker holds the energy equivalent of fifty five Hiroshima bombs
|
LNG explosions don’t cause extinction
| 162 | 37 | 76 | 28 | 5 | 13 | 0.178571 | 0.464286 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,670 |
From the beginning of his rule, Raul’s response to the economic crisis was to expand opportunities for private economic activity, foreign investment and tourism, not as a last-minute concession but part of a new economic model. The legalization of activities that were previously in the black market reduced the population subjected to criminal prosecution, including the most draconian cases, such as those classified under the subjective labels of “dangerousness” and “vagrancy”.
|
Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2011 Arturo “Change in Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy” New America Foundation http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf
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From the beginning of his rule, Raul’s response to the economic crisis was to expand opportunities for private economic activity, foreign investment and tourism, not as a last-minute concession but part of a new economic model.
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Economic reforms will accelerate – predictive ev
| 481 | 48 | 227 | 71 | 7 | 36 | 0.098592 | 0.507042 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,671 |
Conclusions If the travel ban is lifted unilaterally now or the embargo is ended by the U.S., what will the U.S. government have to negotiate with a future regime in Cuba and to encourage changes in the island? These policies could be an important bargaining chip with a future regime willing to provide concessions in the area of political and economic freedoms. The travel ban and the embargo should be lifted as a result of negotiations between the U.S. and a Cuban government willing to provide meaningful and irreversible political and economic concessions or when there is a democratic government in place in the island.
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Suchlicki professor of history at the School of International Studies at the University of Miami 4/04/2013 Jaime DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT AND INSTITUTIONS A BLOG SPONSORED BY THE DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTER What if…the U.S. Ended the Cuba Travel Ban and the Embargo? http://devresearchcenter.org/2013/04/12/what-if-the-u-s-ended-the-cuba-travel-ban-and-the-embargo/#more-219
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If the embargo is ended by the U.S., what will the U.S. government have to negotiate with a future regime in Cuba and to encourage changes in the island These policies could be an important bargaining chip the embargo should be lifted as a result of negotiations between the U.S. and a Cuban government willing to provide meaningful and irreversible political and economic concessions or when there is a democratic government in place in the island
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Unconditional removal of the embargo ruins our bargaining chips to produce reform
| 626 | 82 | 448 | 105 | 12 | 76 | 0.114286 | 0.72381 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,672 |
Not only has the science about chemical and biological weapons been quite sophisticated for more than a century, but that science has become massively more developed over that period. Moreover, governments (not just small terrorist groups) have spent a great deal of money over decades in an effort to make the weapons more effective. Yet, although there have been great improvements in the lethality, effectiveness, and deployment of conventional and nuclear weapons during that time, the difficulties of controlling and dispersing chemical and biological substances seem to have persisted. Perhaps dedicated terrorists will, in time, figure it out. However, the experience in the 1990s of the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo suggests there are great difficulties. The group had some 300 scientists in its employ and an estimated budget of $1 billion, and it reportedly tried at least nine times over five years to set off biological weapons by spraying pathogens from trucks and wafting them from rooftops, hoping fancifully to ignite an apocalyptic war. These efforts failed to create a single fatality; in fact, nobody even noticed that the attacks had taken place. It was at that point that the group abandoned its biological efforts in frustration and instead turned to the infamous sarin chemical attack.29 As two analysts stress, there have been so few biological (and chemical) terrorist attacks because they would require overcoming several major technological hurdles. Among them: gaining access to specialized ingredients, acquiring equipment and know-how to produce and disperse the agents, and creating an organization that can resist infiltration or early detection by law enforcement." In the meantime, the science with respect to detecting and ably responding to such attacks is likely to grow. Although acknowledging that things could change in the future, the Gilmore Commission has concluded, "As easy as some argue that it may be for terrorists to culture anthrax spores or brew up a concoction of deadly nerve gas, the effective dissemination or dispersal of these viruses and poisons still presents serious technological hurdles that greatly inhibit their effective use.
|
Mueller 6 (John, Chair of National Security Studies – Mershon Center and Professor of Political Science – Ohio State University, Overblown, p. 24)
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governments have spent a great deal of money Yet the difficulties of controlling and dispersing c b substances seem to have persisted. Aum Shinrikyo had 300 scientists and $1 billion, and tried nine times to set off bio weapons These efforts failed to create a single fatality bio chem terrorist attacks would require overcoming several major technological hurdles gaining access to special ingredients, acquiring equipment and know-how and creating an organization that can resist detection effective dissemination still presents serious technological hurdles
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Tech hurdles prevent bioterror
| 2,197 | 30 | 564 | 338 | 4 | 82 | 0.011834 | 0.242604 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,673 |
A recent study by the ioMosaic Corporation draws upon field measurements, operational information, and engineering information on LNG vessels gathered over the last sixty years."' It takes into account terrorism and other twenty-first- century threats. The overall conclusion is straightforward—that in the highly unlikely event of a very large scale release of liquified natural gas on land or water, significant effects will be felt in the immediate vicinity.'"50 However, the zone of impact would not extend anywhere close to the thirty miles predicted by some groups." As long as an LNG vapor cloud is unconfined, it will not explode. A cloud reaching a populated area would quickly find an ignition source and burn back to the spill site before it could cover large numbers of people. If inflicting mass casualties is the terrorist goal, LNG facilities and tankers are not good targets. CONTINUED. TEXT OMITTED. THIS IS FOOTNOTE 50. 50 According to Kalelkar et al. (p. 4), available data and explosion dynamics indicate that it is not possible to detonate LNG vapors, even with an explosive charge on a storage tank, unless the LNG vapors contain high fractions of ethane and propane (more than 20 per- cent). They claim that the likelihood of this scenario is equivalent to winning the Powerball or Megabucks lottery several times simultaneously. For impact, p. 22
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Farrell 7 (Richard Farrell, Summer 2007, analyst for Chamber Corporation, “Maritime Terrorism,” Naval War College Review, Vol 60 No 3, EBSCO)
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in the unlikely event of a large scale release of l n g on the zone of impact would not extend anywhere close to thirty miles As long as an LNG vapor cloud is unconfined, it will not explode A cloud reaching a populated area would quickly find an ignition source and burn before it could cover large numbers of people If inflicting mass casualties is the terrorist goal, LNG facilities and tankers are not good targets available data and explosion dynamics indicate that it is not possible to detonate LNG vapors, even with an explosive charge on a storage tank, unless the LNG vapors contain high fractions of ethane and propane the likelihood of this scenario is equivalent to winning the Powerball or Megabucks lottery several times simultaneously
|
No impact and no incentive for an LNG attack
| 1,370 | 44 | 750 | 221 | 9 | 129 | 0.040724 | 0.58371 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,674 |
The other remarkable feature of this situation is the degree of fear being instilled by those opposed to the LNG terminals. Although I don't fault communities for wanting a say in the kind of industrial facilities that will be in close proximity to them, those discussions should still be based on fact and not wild ravings. The Wall Street Journal cited one LNG opponent who claimed that the destructive potential of an LNG tanker was equivalent to 55 Hiroshima bombs (see analysis below). This reflects an irrational fear, bolstered by junk science. It's hard to argue with, but we cannot base the nation's energy policies on paranoia. Many have picked up on the explosion at the LNG plant in Skikda, Algeria (see my blog of January 21) as evidence of the risks of handling LNG, but even if that were a fair comparison--and there are good reasons why it is not--it is actually a pretty good illustration that the risks are similar to those associated with many kinds of industrial facilities and not orders of magnitude greater, as activists assert. Having recently seen prosaic and trusted objects turned into deadly weapons, it is natural to worry a bit more about LNG than we might have a few years ago. Every LNG tanker--along with every crude oil or gasoline tanker, tank truck, or rail car--has the potential for destructive misuse. Yet we have not grounded all airplanes for fear they will be turned into cruise missiles, nor can we shun every link in the energy chain on which we all rely. While we can minimize risk, we cannot eliminate it. And if you don't want the LNG terminal in your neighborhood, for reasons that seem perfectly valid to you, just exactly whose neighborhood are you proposing as an alternative? Or are you and your neighbors prepared to take your houses off the gas grid and heat them with something else?
Finally, for anyone interested in the atomic bomb comparison, a few facts: 1. A fully loaded LNG tanker of 120,000 cubic meters capacity holds about 50,000 tons of methane. 2. The yield of the Hiroshima bomb was equivalent to 21,000 tons of TNT. 3. Conservatively assuming that TNT and methane have the same energy content gives you a ratio of 2.5, not 55, but we are not done yet. 4. An atomic bomb releases its energy (from the conversion of matter into energy, via our old friend e=mc^2) in 1/1000th of a second. This makes for a stupendous flash and explosion, with a surface temperature comparable to that of the sun. This is why every H-bomb has an A-bomb trigger.5. A chemical explosion of methane requires a narrow range of air/fuel mix (5-15%) that could not be achieved all at once for the entire volume of an LNG tanker. In the real world, it would take many seconds and probably minutes to consume all the available fuel. 6. The difference between points 4 and 5 above is analogous to the difference between going from 60-0 mph by hitting a brick wall, compared to a panic stop using the brakes. The same energy is released, but in very different ways. 7. If it were easy to liberate nuclear weapon yields from large quantities of fuel, people would be doing this routinely. The closest we get is something like this. And note that there is an enormous distinction between achieving A-bomb-like overpressures in a very limited radius with a fuel/air device vs. the kind of wide-scale effects of an actual nuclear explosion.
|
Styles 4 (Geoffrey SW, Managing Director – GSW Strategy Group, LLC, “Energy Outlook”, 5-14, http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/2004/05/lng-disaster-movie-front-page-of-last.html)
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one LNG opponent claimed the potential of an LNG tanker was 55 Hiroshima bombs This reflects an irrational fear bolstered by junk science we cannot base energy policies on paranoia assuming that TNT and methane have the same energy content gives you a ratio of 2.5, not 55 not An atomic bomb releases its energy in 1/1000th of a second. A chemical explosion could not be achieved all at once for an LNG tanker In the real world, it would take minutes The difference is analogous to the difference between going from 60-0 mph by hitting a brick wall, compared to a panic stop using the brakes. The same energy is released, but in very different ways there is an enormous distinction
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No impact to LNG explosion
| 3,374 | 26 | 681 | 589 | 5 | 122 | 0.008489 | 0.207131 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,675 |
Westerners eager to promote democracy must be wary of African politicians who promise democratic reform without sincere commitment to the process. Offering money to corrupt leaders in exchange for their taking small steps away from autocracy may in fact be a way of pushing countries into anocracy. As such, world financial lenders and interventionists who wield leverage and influence must take responsibility in considering the ramifications of African nations who adopt democracy in order to maintain elite political privileges. The obvious reason for this, aside from the potential costs in human life should conflict arise from hastily constructed democratic reforms, is the fact that Western donors, in the face of intrastate war would then be faced with channeling funds and resources away from democratization efforts and toward conflict intervention based on issues of human security. This is a problem, as Western nations may be increasingly wary of intervening in Africa hotspots after experiencing firsthand the unpredictable and unforgiving nature of societal warfare in both Somalia and Rwanda. On a costbenefit basis, the West continues to be somewhat reluctant to get to get involved in Africa’s dirty wars, evidenced by its political hesitation when discussing ongoing sanguinary grassroots conflicts in Africa. Even as the world apologizes for bearing witness to the Rwandan genocide without having intervened, the United States, recently using the label ‘genocide’ in the context of the Sudanese conflict (in September of 2004), has only proclaimed sanctions against Sudan, while dismissing any suggestions at actual intervention (Giry, 2005). Part of the problem is that traditional military and diplomatic approaches at separating combatants and enforcing ceasefires have yielded little in Africa. No powerful nations want to get embroiled in conflicts they cannot win – especially those conflicts in which the intervening nation has very little interest.
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Barrett 5 (Robert, Ph.D. Student in the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies – University of Calgary, “Understanding the Challenges of African Democratization through Conflict Analysis”, 6-1, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=726162)
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the West continues to be reluctant to get to get involved in Africa’s wars evidenced by its hesitation when discussing conflicts in Africa the U S only proclaimed sanctions against Sudan, while dismissing suggestions at intervention the problem is traditional military approaches have yielded little in Africa No powerful nations want to get embroiled in conflicts they cannot win especially those in which the intervening nation has very little interest
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No great power involvement
| 1,976 | 26 | 454 | 296 | 4 | 70 | 0.013514 | 0.236486 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,676 |
However, despite dueling artillery barrages and the sinking of a warship, pledges of “enormous retaliation,” in-your-face joint military exercises and urgent calls for talks, the risk of all-out war on the Korean peninsula is less than it has been at any time in the past four decades. North Korea didn’t blink, because it had no intention of actually starting a major war. Rather than signifying a new round of escalating tension between North and South Korea, the events of the past year point to something else—a new cold war between the two sides. In fact, one of my pet peeves is the analogies we use to describe the situation between South and North Korea. We often call the situation a “powder keg” or a “tinderbox,” implying a very unstable situation in which one small spark could lead to a huge explosion. But the evidence actually leads to the opposite conclusion: we have gone sixty years without a major war, despite numerous “sparks” such as the skirmishing and shows of force that occurred over the past month. If one believes the situation is a tinderbox, the only explanation for six decades without a major war is that we have been extraordinarily lucky. I prefer the opposite explanation: deterrence is quite stable because both sides know the costs of a major war, and both sides—rhetoric and muscle-flexing aside—keep smaller incidents in their proper perspective. How can this be, when North Korea threatens to use massive retaliation and mentions its nuclear weapons in its rhetoric, and when the South Korean leadership and military is determined to "respond relentlessly" to meet any North Korean provocation? Local skirmishing has stayed local for sixty years. The key issue is whether a local fight could escalate into all-out war, such as North Korea shelling Seoul with artillery or missiles. Such a decision would clearly have to be taken at the top of the North Korean leadership. Especially when tensions are high, both militaries are on high alert and local commanders particularly careful with their actions. Without a clear directive from the top, it is not likely that a commander one hundred kilometers away from the military exercises would make a decision on his own to start shooting at Seoul. For their part, North Korean leaders have not made such a decision in sixty years, knowing that any major attack on Seoul would cause a massive response from the South Korean and U.S. forces and would carry the war into Pyongyang and beyond. After the fighting, North Korea would cease to exist. Thus, while both North and South Korean leaders talk in grim tones about war, both sides have kept the actual fighting to localized areas, and I have seen no indication that this time the North Korean leadership plans to expand the fighting into a general war.
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Kang 10 (David, Professor of International Relations and Business and Director of the Korean Studies Institute –University of Southern California, “Korea’s New Cold War,” 12-31, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/koreas-new-cold-war-4653)
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the risk of all-out war on the Korean peninsula is less than it has been at any time North Korea didn’t blink because it had no intention of actually starting a major war the events of the past year point to a new cold war We often call the situation a “powder keg” or a “tinderbox,” implying a very unstable situation in which one small spark could lead to a huge explosion evidence actually leads to the opposite conclusion we have gone sixty years without a major war, despite numerous “sparks” such as the skirmishing and shows of force that occurred over the past month If one believes the situation is a tinderbox, the only explanation for six decades without a major war is luck deterrence is quite stable because both sides know the costs of a major war and both sides—rhetoric and muscle-flexing aside—keep smaller incidents in their proper perspective when North Korea threatens to use massive retaliation and mentions its nuclear weapons in its rhetoric and when the South Korean leadership and military is determined to "respond relentlessly" to meet any North Korean provocation Local skirmishing has stayed local The key issue is whether a local fight could escalate into all-out war it is not likely that a commander would make a decision on his own to start shooting at Seoul leaders knowing that any major attack on Seoul would cause a massive response from the South Korean and U.S. forces and would carry the war into Pyongyang and beyond After the fighting, North Korea would cease to exist both sides have kept the actual fighting to localized areas I have seen no indication the North Korean leadership plans to expand the fighting into a general war
|
No escalation to Korean conflict
| 2,790 | 32 | 1,672 | 470 | 5 | 289 | 0.010638 | 0.614894 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,677 |
Conditioning our policy of resource denial on sweeping political reforms strengthens the Cuban state because the scarce resources available in an authoritarian Cuba have been and will continue to be allocated primarily based on political priorities, thereby increasing the state’s relative power and its ability to control its citizens. History has shown that the negative effects of such isolation can be long lasting and counterproductive to change. During the Cold War, U.S. policy toward Eastern Europe was not based on isolation or resource denial. Indeed, an analysis of these transitions reveals an extraordinary correlation between the degree of openness toward former communist countries and the success of their transitions to democracies and market economies.xi
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Cuba Study Group 2013 “Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba” February http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
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Conditioning our policy of resource denial on political reforms strengthens the Cuban state because the scarce resources available in an authoritarian Cuba have been and will continue to be allocated primarily based on political priorities, thereby increasing the state’s relative power and its ability to control its citizens. the negative effects of such isolation can be long lasting and counterproductive to change analysis of transitions reveals an extraordinary correlation between the degree of openness toward former communist countries and the success of their transitions to democracies and market economies
|
Conditioning the embargo strengthens the regime
| 772 | 48 | 617 | 114 | 6 | 89 | 0.052632 | 0.780702 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,678 |
Beyond failing to advance its stated objectives, the most counterproductive aspect of Helms-Burton is that it codifies U.S. embargo sanctions toward Cuba, and conditions the suspension of any and all such sanctions on congressional recognition of a transition government in Cuba. This is counterproductive in two ways. First, it hinders the United States’ ability to respond rapidly and strategically to developments on the Island as they occur. For example, if the Executive Branch wishes to increase assistance to the 400,000 private entrepreneurs currently operating small businesses in Cuba, it can only do so in a limited way through its licensing authority. Second, it creates a dynamic of “all-or-nothing” conditionality that effectively places U.S. policy in the hands of the Cuban government, making it easier for Cuban officials to resist political reform and dictate the degree of American influence on the Island.
|
Cuba Study Group 2013 “Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba” February http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
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Helms-Burton conditions the suspension of any and all sanctions on congressional recognition of a transition government in Cuba. This is counterproductive it hinders the U S ability to respond rapidly and strategically to developments on the Island it creates a dynamic of “all-or-nothing” conditionality that effectively places U.S. policy in the hands of the Cuban government, making it easier for Cuban officials to resist political reform and dictate the degree of American influence on the Island
|
Conditioning fails – gives too much power to anti-reformers
| 925 | 60 | 501 | 141 | 9 | 76 | 0.06383 | 0.539007 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,679 |
8. There’s oil there. Another reason to think that it might be time to reconsider our Cuba policy is this natural resource. Cuba has begun exploratory drilling in search of oil in its territorial waters, with some reports estimating the island could become a major oil producer — and refiner — over the next five to 10 years. In an era where geopolitical realities may make places like Venezuela and the Middle East less reliable sources of oil for the United States, we need all the friends we can get, particularly when they’re right next door.
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New York News 4/01/2013 “Cuba’s embargo: U.S. does huge commerce with China boycotts Cuba as communists” http://news-new-york-news.com/cubas-embargo-u-s-does-huge-commerce-with-china-boycotts-cuba-as-communists/
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Cuba has begun exploratory drilling in search of oil with reports estimating the island could become a major oil producer — and refiner — over the next five to 10 years. In an era where geopolitical realities may make places like Venezuela and the Middle East less reliable sources of oil we need all the friends we can get, particularly when they’re right next door.
|
Cuba will be a major oil producer and refiner – its proximity makes it more reliable than other sources
| 546 | 104 | 367 | 96 | 19 | 65 | 0.197917 | 0.677083 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,680 |
Ironically, while the initial justification for the embargo was the expropriation of U.S. properties in Cuba, the unilateral nature of U.S. sanctions forces U.S. businesses to be relegated to mere bystanders as Cuba begins to open its economy to global markets and restricts the ability of U.S. nationals, who had their properties confiscated by the Cuban government, to seek compensation from foreign users of their confiscated properties or to sell their claims in international markets.
|
Cuba Study Group 2013 “Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba” February http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032
|
the unilateral nature of U.S. sanctions forces U.S. businesses to be relegated to mere bystanders as Cuba begins to open its economy to global markets
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Repealing the embargo is key to multilateral leadership
| 489 | 56 | 150 | 75 | 8 | 25 | 0.106667 | 0.333333 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,681 |
Over the past several years a bipartisan consensus has been developing in Congress to lift the trade embargo with Cuba. In 2002 a group of senators forming the Congressional Cuban Working Group proposed legislation that would allow private financing of food and agricultural sales to Cuba. In May of 2004, a bipartisan group of legislators, including Senators Max Baucus and Diane Feinstein, introduced the Cuba Sanctions Reform Act, which required that the Cuba trade embargo be subject to a periodic review and renewal procedure which, according to Senator Baucus, “would not lift the embargo…but would simply give Congress and the American people a say in the process” (French, 39). While the bill was referred to various Congressional committees, the legislation ultimately did not receive consideration. In February of 2008 more than 100 House members signed a letter to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urging a complete review of the embargo since the U.S. policy toward Cuba “serves neither the U.S. national interest nor average Cubans, the intended beneficiaries of our policy” (USA Engage). Pressure from the United Nations General Assembly, which has passed fifteen consecutive resolutions calling for the U.S. to end its trade embargo with Cuba, and the Organization of American States, which has voted by an overwhelming margin to lift the trade embargo against Cuba, has served as an added impetus for encouraging legislators to consider policy changes. In 2009 Representative Charles Rangel of New York proposed legislation to lift the trade embargo ban on Cuba, to end the travel ban, and to establish an agricultural promotion program with respect to Cuba (H.R. 1530). Representative Jerry Moran sponsored legislation that would allow Cuba to send payments directly to U.S. banks rather than having payments routed through other countries (H.R. 1737). In May of 2009 Senator Baucus introduced legislation to ease the restrictions on the export of U.S. agricultural products to Cuba (S. 1089). Representative Bobby Rush introduced the United States-Cuba Trade Normalization Act of 2009, which would lift the trade embargo on Cuba as well as remove Cuba from the State Sponsors of Terrorism List (H.R. 2272). In the Senate, Cuban-American legislators like Senator Mel Martinez from Florida and Senator Bob Menendez from New Jersey historically have blocked such legislative efforts. However, in December of 2009 Congress passed an omnibus spending bill that included limited provisions enabling U.S. farmers and exporters to sell agricultural products to Cuba (USA Engage). Senator Richard Lugar, the ranking Republican member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, acknowledged in a report issued in early 2009 that “the sanctions based policy has significantly impeded the United States’ ability to influence the direction of policy in Cuba or gain a broader understanding of events taking place on the island” (Staff Trip Report to the Committee on Foreign Relations of the U.S. Senate).
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Zimmerman Executive Editor – Georgetown Law Journal 2010 Chelsea “Rethinking The Cuban Trade Embargo: An Opportune Time To Mend a Broken Policy” Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2010/Zimmerman.pdf
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a bipartisan consensus has been developing in Congress to lift the trade embargo with Cuba. more than 100 House members signed a letter urging a complete review of the embargo since the U.S. policy toward Cuba “serves neither the U.S. national interest nor average Cubans, the intended beneficiaries of our policy” Pressure from the U N and the O A S has served as an added impetus for encouraging legislators to consider policy changes.
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Bipart consensus in support of the plan
| 3,013 | 40 | 437 | 467 | 7 | 74 | 0.014989 | 0.158458 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
|
2013
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3,682 |
Let's start with Florida, because I noted that our policy toward Cuba isn't foreign policy; it's domestic. And what we saw in this election was that Obama won almost 50 percent of the Cuban-American vote. He won 36 percent of it in 2008. What does that tell us? It tells us that more and more Cuban-Americans are voting as Americans, not as special interest Cubans focused only on American policy toward the island. Number two, it shows us that Cuban-Americans are not punishing Obama for the openings he did make under his first term in allowing Cubans to commute, invest, and travel pretty much whenever they want to, to the island. And the third thing it means is that in a second term, the president has far more running room than he did even in the first term to go farther, if he wants to, in terms of a broader opening with Havana.
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Sweig Director for Latin American Studies Council on Foreign Relations & McMahon Editor CFR.org 2013 Julia & Robert “Talking Cuba” Interview with Julia Sweig Council on Foreign Relations 1/25 http://www.cfr.org/cuba/talking-cuba/p29879
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in this election Obama won almost 50 percent of the Cuban-American vote. He won 36 percent of it in 2008. more and more Cuban-Americans are voting as Americans, not as special interest Cubans focused only on American policy toward the island. Cuban-Americans are not punishing Obama for the openings he did make under his first term in allowing Cubans to commute, invest, and travel pretty much whenever they want to, to the island. in a second term, the president has far more running room than he did even in the first term to go farther, if he wants to, in terms of a broader opening with Havana.
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Their link is factually incorrect – the Cuban-American support for Obama proves the link only goes in our direction – Cuba-American’s aren’t single issue voters and they haven’t punished Obama for his pro-Cuba stance
| 838 | 216 | 599 | 153 | 34 | 107 | 0.222222 | 0.699346 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
|
2013
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3,683 |
Another example of how changes in U.S. Latino groups can change the context of policy making occurred in Cuban-American Miami. For years, they voted Republican for president and sent to Congress pro-embargo legislators, like Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart, who oppose Cuban-American travel to the island, and Senator Marco Rubio, who has filibustered presidential nominations in retaliation for alleged “abuse” of people-to-people travel.
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Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2012 Arturo “Latin America: The missing region in the U.S. elections?” The Havana Note http://thehavananote.com/2012/12/latin_america_missing_region_us_elections
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U.S. Latino groups can change the context of policy making For years, they voted Republican for president and sent to Congress pro-embargo legislators,
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Their link arguments are outdated – Cuba-American votes are empirically moderating towards pro-Cuba candidates
| 454 | 111 | 151 | 64 | 14 | 23 | 0.21875 | 0.359375 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
|
2013
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3,684 |
The leading Republican Presidential candidates' statements on Cuba policy last week were just the latest example of how narrow readings of domestic political interests prevent politicians from adopting a sensible foreign policy toward Cuba. Interestingly, the Republican calculus may prove wrong in the general election.¶ ¶ In the lead-up to Tuesday's Republican primary in Florida, Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have both locked themselves in to radicalized positions on Cuba in order to compete for the Cuban-American share of the Republican primary vote. Gingrich has promised an increase in covert actions to undermine the Cuban government, although current U.S. covert programs in Cuba have served more to provoke the Cuban government than to promote democracy on the island. Not to be outdone, Romney has promised a return to Bush-era policies on travel, although limiting travel has proved more successful in punishing Cuban-American families than in pressuring the Cuban government. In a move against his own pro-business stance, Romney then went even further: astonishingly, he promised to enforce Title III of the Helms-Burton law, a provision which would allow Cuban exiles to sue foreign companies in U.S. courts for investing in Cuba.¶ ¶ Republican primary candidates' adoption of radical positions on Cuba targets only one part of the Cuban-American community and ignores ongoing changes in Florida and the lessons of the 2008 election. The conventional wisdom is that Cubans are Republican and support a hard-line position on Cuba. But this isn't entirely true any more. Conservative voters are still the majority in Florida's Cuban-American voting community, but their dominance is by no means absolute. A poll by Florida International University (FIU) from September 2011 of Miami-Dade Cuban Americans shows that of registered Cuban-American voters, 56 percent are Republicans, 20 percent are Democrats, and 23 percent are Independents. Together, Democrats and Independents comprise nearly half of the Cuban-American voting population. 44 percent of Cuban Americans oppose continuing the embargo. Demographic trends will continue to move the Cuban-American voter bloc in the direction of engagement: both young Cubans and recent arrivals favor a more liberal Cuba policy. Cuban-American public opinion is not the monolith it is often thought to be.¶ ¶ In other words, the Cuban-American community is becoming more diverse and less ideologically rigid, and this was part of Barack Obama's success with Cuban Americans and in Florida in 2008. But now, Romney and Gingrich have committed themselves to extreme positions on Cuba that were not necessary and may in fact become a liability in the general election.¶ ¶ In any case, most of the Cuban-American Republicans would never vote for Obama, even if he promised to send hit squads after Fidel and Raul. And by all indications, Obama realizes this and will focus on courting the Cuban-American center, rather than attempting to compete with the Republican candidates for the votes of the Cuban-American right. At one time, Democrats’ strategy for going after the 30 to 40 percent of the vote in the Cuban-American community was to echo hard-line views on Cuba and emphasize their own economic policies. Clinton did so in 1992 and 1996, and Gore followed suit in 2000. Obama took a different approach, reflecting changes in the Cuban-American community. He adopted a much more nuanced approach to Cuba in general and he emphasized his support for travel by Cuban Americans to visit and support family on the island. One result of this is that Cuban-American family travel expanded, creating an ever-larger constituency for engagement with Cuba. When House Republicans tried in December 2011 to roll back Obama’s liberalization of Cuban-American family travel, significant numbers of Cuban Americans called and wrote the White House in protest. To the surprise of some observers (and to the disappointment of hardliners), Obama stood firm on family travel and defeated Republican efforts to undo his regulatory changes. Liberalizing travel and promoting engagement are well-considered political responses to what the Obama campaign has recognized as shifts in the Cuban-American community. They are also sensible foreign policy moves. As Romney and Gingrich fight over a shrinking pool of conservative Cuban-American votes in Tuesday's primary, they are committing themselves to positions that will likely hurt them with Cuban Independents in the general election. They would do well to take another look at both the Cuban-American community and Barack Obama’s electoral success in 2008.
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Washington Office on Latin America 2012 (“Republican Candidates Compete for the Shrinking Voting Bloc of Hardline Cuban Americans” 1/31 http://www.wola.org/commentary/republican_candidates_compete_for_the_shrinking_voting_bloc_of_hardline_cuban_americans
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The leading Republican Presidential candidates' statements on Cuba policy last week were just the latest example of how narrow readings of domestic political interests prevent politicians from adopting a sensible foreign policy toward Cuba. astonishingly, he promised to enforce Title III of the Helms-Burton law, a provision which would allow Cuban exiles to sue foreign companies in U.S. courts for investing in Cuba.¶ ¶ Republican primary candidates' adoption of radical positions on Cuba targets only one part of the Cuban-American community and ignores ongoing changes in Florida The conventional wisdom is that Cubans are Republican and support a hard-line position on Cuba. But this isn't entirely true any more. Conservative voters are still the majority in Florida's Cuban-American voting community, but their dominance is by no means absolute. 44 percent of Cuban Americans oppose continuing the embargo. Demographic trends will continue to move the Cuban-American voter bloc in the direction of engagement: both young Cubans and recent arrivals favor a more liberal Cuba policy. Cuban-American public opinion is not the monolith it is often thought to be.¶ ¶ In other words, the Cuban-American community is becoming more diverse and less ideologically rigid,
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Cuban republicans oppose embargo: GOP will vote to keep Latino Demographics
| 4,686 | 76 | 1,269 | 719 | 11 | 192 | 0.015299 | 0.267038 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,685 |
New Mexico’s governor, Bill Richardson, a Democrat who regularly visits Cuba, said Cuba’s offshore drilling plans are a “potential inroad” for loosening the embargo. During a recent humanitarian trip to Cuba, he said, he bumped into a number of American drilling contractors — “all Republicans who could eventually convince the Congress to make the embargo flexible in this area of oil spills.”
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Kraus 10 (Clifford – NYT, “Drilling Plans Off Cuba Stir Fears of Impact on Gulf”, 9/30, http://naturalresources.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=209452)
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Richardson said Cuba’s offshore drilling plans are a “potential inroad” for loosening the embargo. he bumped into a number of American drilling contractors — “all Republicans who could eventually convince the Congress to make the embargo flexible in this area of oil spills.”
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Turn – Drilling lobbyists support the plan – generates GOP support and shields the links
| 394 | 88 | 275 | 62 | 15 | 43 | 0.241935 | 0.693548 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,686 |
Clout in Washington isn't about winning legislative battles -- it's about making sure that they never happen at all. The oil and gas industry has that kind of clout.¶ ¶ Despite astronomical profits during what have been lean years for most everyone else, the oil and gas industry continues to benefit from massive, multi-billion dollar taxpayer subsidies. Opinion polling shows the American public overwhelmingly wants those subsidies eliminated. Meanwhile, both parties are hunting feverishly for ways to reduce the deficit.¶ ¶ But when President Obama called on Congress to eliminate about $4 billion a year in tax breaks for Big Oil earlier this year, the response on the Hill was little more than a knowing chuckle. Even Obama's closest congressional allies don't think the president’s proposal has a shot.¶ ¶ "I would be surprised if it got a great deal of traction," Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), chairman of the Senate energy committee, told reporters at the National Press Club a few days after Obama first announced his plan.¶ ¶ Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), co-author of a House bill that closely resembles Obama's proposal, nevertheless acknowledges that it has slim chances of passing. "It will be a challenge to get anything through the House that includes any tax increase for anyone under any circumstance," he told The Huffington Post.¶ ¶ The list goes on: "It's not on my radar," said Frank Maisano, a spokesman for Bracewell Giuliani, a lobbying firm with several oil and gas industry clients. "It's old news and it's never going to happen in this Congress. It couldn't even happen in the last Congress."¶ ¶ Indeed, the oil and gas industry's stranglehold on Congres is so firm that even when the Democrats controlled both houses, repeal of the subsidies didn't stand a chance. Obama proposed cutting them in his previous two budgets as well, but the Senate -- where Republicans and consistently pro-oil Louisiana Democrat Mary Landrieu had more than enough votes to block any legislation -- never even took a stab at it.
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Froomkin ‘11 (,Dan: Senior Washington Correspondent for the Huffington Post. He previously wrote a column for the online version of The Washington Post called White House Watch. “How The Oil Lobby Greases Washington's Wheels” March 6, 2011)
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Clout in Washington isn't about winning legislative battles -- it's about making sure that they never happen at all. The oil and gas industry has that kind of clout the oil and gas industry continues to benefit from massive, multi-billion dollar taxpayer subsidies. Indeed, the oil and gas industry's stranglehold on Congres is so firm that even when the Democrats controlled both houses, repeal of the subsidies didn't stand a chance. Obama proposed cutting them in his previous two budgets as well, but the Senate - never even took a stab at it.
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Oil lobby key - They control congress
| 2,042 | 38 | 547 | 336 | 7 | 93 | 0.020833 | 0.276786 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
|
2013
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3,687 |
The oil industry is in thick with lawmakers, nobody can argue with that. George W. Bush and his presidential cabinet had deep ties to different oil companies: Vice-President Cheney was the chief executive of Halliburton, Condoleeza Rice was a director of Chevron. In addition, Big Oil spends more on lobbying than any other group: nearly $150 million in 2010. After the disastrous BP oil spill last spring, oil and gas lobbying came into sharp focus in the American media, especially as BP stepped up efforts to remake its tarnished image. Recently, the oil industry has been unveiled as a major funder of the Tea Party, which advocates less governmental intervention and regulation, and generally denies climate change; all of which suits the oil industry quite well.
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Business Pundit 2011 “10 of the Biggest Lobbies in Washington” 4/26 http://www.businesspundit.com/10-of-the-biggest-lobbies-in-washington/
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The oil industry is in thick with lawmakers, Big Oil spends more on lobbying than any other group: After the disastrous BP oil spill last spring, oil and gas lobbying came into sharp focus the oil industry has been unveiled as a major funder of the Tea Party, which suits the oil industry quite well.
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Oil lobby is key – they’ll outspend any other group
| 768 | 51 | 300 | 126 | 10 | 55 | 0.079365 | 0.436508 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
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3,688 |
For decades, the only promise most Cubans saw in the ocean north of their island was the current that carries homemade rafts to Florida. That all changed a few years ago when geologists estimated that between 5 billion bbl. and 10 billion bbl. of oil lie beneath the waters off Cuba's northwest coast. Suddenly it seemed as though the hemisphere's sole communist nation might finally end its desperate dependence on oil-rich allies like the former Soviet Union and Venezuela — and perhaps even escape its impoverished economic time warp altogether. Washington's own Cuba time warp got a jolt as well. The oil discovery has renewed debate over whether a crude-thirsty U.S. should loosen its 46-year-old trade embargo against Cuba and let yanqui firms join the drilling, which is taking place fewer than 100 miles off U.S. shores. Despite the Bush Administration's hard line on Cuba, Republicans in Congress have proposed legislation to exempt Big Oil from the embargo. That clamor is sure to rise — especially if Barack Obama, who is more open to dialogue with Havana, becomes the next President — now that Cuba's state oil company, Cubapetroleo, or Cupet, has announced a stunning new estimate of more than 20 billion bbl. bubbling off its shores. "This is not a game," Cupet's exploration manager, Rafael Tenreyro, assured reporters in Havana last week. If true, those potential reserves could make Cuba a major petro player in the hemisphere. (The U.S. has reserves of 29 billion bbl.) And it could render the embargo an even more ineffective means of dislodging the aging Castro brothers, Fidel and current President Raúl. "If it really is 20 billion, then it's a game changer," says Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, a Cuba oil analyst at the University of Nebraska-Omaha. "It provides a lot more justification for changing elements of the embargo, just as we did when we allowed agricultural and medical sales to Cuba" a decade ago.
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Padgett 2008 (Tim, Latin America Bureau Chief, TIME magazine, 2005 Maria Moors Cabot Prize from Columbia University for Latin America coverage, 1994 Inter-American Press Association award, “How Cuba's Oil Find Could Change the US Embargo,” 10/23/08, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1853252,00.html)
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geologists estimated that between 5 billion bbl. and 10 billion bbl. of oil lie beneath the waters off Cuba's coast Washington's Cuba time warp got a jolt as well. The oil discovery has renewed debate over whether a crude-thirsty U.S. should loosen its embargo against Cuba Despite the hard line on Cuba, Republicans in Congress have proposed legislation to exempt Big Oil from the embargo. reserves could make Cuba a major petro player it's a game changer,"
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Oil is enough to sway the GOP in favor of the plan
| 1,931 | 51 | 458 | 319 | 12 | 77 | 0.037618 | 0.241379 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,689 |
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez said recent “efforts” by the Obama administration to selectively ease some US restrictions were no more than “window dressing.” He said the US embargo has cost Havana “more than $975 billion in damages” over the last 50 years.
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First Post 10/29/2011 “World rebukes America’s Cuba policy, but US says Fidel Castro needs to go” http://www.firstpost.com/world/world-rebukes-america%E2%80%99s-cuba-policy-but-us-says-fidel-castro-needs-to-go-118754.html
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Cuban Foreign Minister Rodriguez said recent “efforts” by Obama to selectively ease some US restrictions were no more than “window dressing.” He said the US embargo has cost Havana “more than $975 billion in damages” over the last 50 years
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Piecemeal concessions don’t cut it – lifting the embargo is key
| 265 | 64 | 239 | 43 | 11 | 40 | 0.255814 | 0.930233 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
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3,690 |
According to Kerry, the United States will never stop supporting human rights in Cuba, simply because they are fundamental values of American society. After all, the United States has continued pushing for civil and political liberties in Vietnam since ending its embargo. Washington does so not because it opposes Hanoi’s leaders or to impose a regime change, but as part of a rational strategy of promoting a peaceful evolution to a more open Vietnamese political system. Washington wants stable relationships with the whole Vietnamese nation, not only with the government. Peoples of the world, no matter how suspicious of U.S. motives they may be, appreciate human rights promotion within the framework of international law.
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Lopez-Levy lecturer & PhD Candidate at the School of International Studies University of Denver 2013 Arturo “Kerry's Cuba Sanity” The Havana Note http://thehavananote.com/2013/01/kerrys_cuba_sanity
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the U S will never stop supporting human rights in Cuba, simply because they are fundamental values of American society. the U S has continued pushing for civil and political liberties in Vietnam since ending its embargo. Washington does so not because it opposes Hanoi’s leaders or to impose a regime change, but as part of a rational strategy of promoting a peaceful evolution to a more open political system
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Engagement does not change our stand on human rights – their link argument is overly simplistic
| 728 | 96 | 410 | 114 | 16 | 70 | 0.140351 | 0.614035 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,691 |
Cuba is recovering from a series of hurricanes and tropical storms that hit Cuba in the fall of 2008 that by some estimates have caused over $9 billion worth of damage to Cuban farms and industry. Because food shortages are a serious problem in Cuba, the trade embargo with Cuba has resulted in increased suffering of the Cuban people. According to Peter Schwab, “the most explosive impact of the U.S. embargo, even worse than that on public health, is the effect on food and hunger” (Schwab, 79). Food rationing began in Cuba in 1962, with the distribution of one rationing booklet for each Cuban household. Initially most food items were included in the rationing, but items such as fruits, vegetables, and eggs have been added and deleted based on their scarcity at the time (Alvarez, 1).
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Zimmerman Executive Editor – Georgetown Law Journal 2010 Chelsea “Rethinking The Cuban Trade Embargo: An Opportune Time To Mend a Broken Policy” Center for the Study of the Presidency & Congress http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/documents/Fellows2010/Zimmerman.pdf
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Because food shortages are a serious problem in Cuba, the trade embargo with Cuba has resulted in increased suffering of the Cuban people. “the most explosive impact of the U.S. embargo, even worse than that on public health, is the effect on food and hunger”
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Embargo mass suffering and starvation
| 791 | 38 | 259 | 136 | 5 | 45 | 0.036765 | 0.330882 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,692 |
The US embargo has had an extensive impact on the human rights of ordinary Cubans; indeed its explicit purpose has been to create enough hunger and misery to drive Cubans to overthrow their government. The embargo on Cuba is ‘the most comprehensive set of U.S. economic sanctions on any country’ (United States Government Accounting Office, 2007: 1). As the UN reported in 2008: ‘The negative impact of the embargo is pervasive in the social, economic and environmental dimensions of human development in Cuba, severely affecting the most vulnerable socio-economic groups of the Cuban population’ (United Nations, 2008: 83). In the same year, the UN Human Rights Council reported that:
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Ludlam Senior Lecturer in Politics @ University of Sheffield, UK 2012 Steve “Regime Change and Human Rights: A Perspective on the Cuba Polemic” Bulletin of Latin American Research v31 March wiley online
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The US embargo has had an extensive impact on the human rights of ordinary Cubans; its explicit purpose has been to create enough hunger and misery to drive Cubans to overthrow their government. The embargo on Cuba is ‘the most comprehensive set of U.S. economic sanctions on any country’ the UN reported ‘The negative impact of the embargo is pervasive in the social, economic and environmental dimensions of human development in Cuba, severely affecting the most vulnerable socio-economic groups of the Cuban population’
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Embargo is directly responsible for suffering and death of Cuban people
| 685 | 72 | 522 | 109 | 11 | 83 | 0.100917 | 0.761468 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,693 |
Cyber-attacks and cyber-espionage pose a greater potential danger to U.S. national security than Al Qaeda and other militants that have dominated America's global focus since Sept. 11, 2001, the nation's top intelligence officials said Tuesday.For the first time, the growing risk of computer-launched foreign assaults on U.S. infrastructure, including the power grid, transportation hubs and financial networks, was ranked higher in the U.S. intelligence community's annual review of worldwide threats than worries about terrorism, transnational organized crime and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
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LA Times 3/12/2013 “Cyber-attacks a bigger threat than Al Qaeda, officials say” http://articles.latimes.com/2013/mar/12/world/la-fg-worldwide-threats-20130313
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Cyber-attacks pose a greater potential danger to U.S. national security than Al Qaeda and other militants that have dominated America's global focus the nation's top intelligence officials said the growing risk of computer-launched foreign assaults on U.S. infrastructure, including the power grid, transportation hubs and financial networks, was ranked higher in the U.S. intelligence community's annual review of worldwide threats than worries about terrorism, transnational organized crime and proliferation of w m d
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Cyber attacks outweigh – most probable and most threatening
| 612 | 60 | 519 | 84 | 9 | 73 | 0.107143 | 0.869048 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,694 |
Cyber espionage is one of the most pressing threats the nation faces. Recent reports have stated “that cyber attacks and cyber espionage had supplanted terrorism as the top security threat facing the United States.”5 For example, American oil and gas firms are frequently targeted and subject to theft of trade secret, business plans, exploration bids and geological data.6 The loss of IP and technology poses a threat to national security not only to our military advantage (in the context of military design plans and strategies) but to our economic competitiveness. Statesponsored cyber espionage is the most harmful to U.S. IP and technology. State-sponsored opponents are the most sophisticated and have demonstrated the capacity to exploit our commercial and government networks.
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The House Committee on Energy and Commerce 7/3/2013 “Cyber Espionage and the Theft of U.S. Intellectual Property and Technology.” http://docs.house.gov/meetings/IF/IF02/20130709/101104/HHRG-113-IF02-20130709-SD002.pdf
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Cyber espionage is one of the most pressing threats the nation faces. cyber attacks and cyber espionage had supplanted terrorism as the top security threat facing the U S American oil and gas firms are frequently targeted The loss of IP and technology poses a threat to national security not only to our military advantage but to our economic competitiveness. State-sponsored opponents are the most sophisticated and have demonstrated the capacity to exploit our commercial and government networks
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Cyber attacks hurt military readiness and competitiveness
| 785 | 58 | 497 | 120 | 7 | 78 | 0.058333 | 0.65 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,695 |
“The United States has expressed our concerns about the growing threat of cyberintrusions, some of which appear to be tied to the Chinese government and military,” he said in a speech largely devoted to the Obama administration’s defense posture in Asia. At the same time, Mr. Hagel emphasized the need for more talks between the American and Chinese militaries to build trust and reduce the risk of miscalculation at a time of mounting rivalry.
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Perlez chief diplomatic correspondent in the Beijing bureau of The New York Times 6/01/2013 Jane “Hagel, in Remarks Directed at China, Speaks of Cyberattack Threat” New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/02/world/asia/hagel-reassures-asian-allies.html?_r=0
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“The U S has expressed our concerns about the growing threat of cyberintrusions, which appear to be tied to the Chinese government and military, Hagel emphasized the need for more talks between the American and Chinese militaries to reduce the risk of miscalculation
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Chinese cyber attack risks miscalc
| 445 | 35 | 266 | 74 | 5 | 43 | 0.067568 | 0.581081 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
3,696 |
Cuba is a center for Cyber Warfare. The US public is becoming more and more aware of the importance of cyber war, especially after the destructive STUXNET worm attacks. Why bomb and destroy a nation’s facilities when with a cyber attack you can shut down or destroy a nation’s industries, power grid, communication systems, and banking system. A successful cyber attack has no “finger prints,” There is no way to trace the responsible individual, groups, or nation behind successful attacks. Plus a nation can use criminal organizations to steal millions from financial institutions as part of a cyber attack. More important is the new level of cyber war, which we are watching unfold in Iran. Cyber attacks have the potential now to blow up or destroy power plants and industries.
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Breitbart 10/31/2010 “Cyber Warfare and the Future of Post-Castro Cuba” http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2010/10/31/Cyber-Warfare-and-the-Future-of-Post-Castro-Cuba
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Cuba is a center for Cyber Warfare. Why bomb and destroy a nation’s facilities when with a cyber attack you can shut down or destroy a nation’s industries, power grid, communication systems, and banking system. A successful cyber attack has no “finger prints,” There is no way to trace the responsible individual, groups, or nation behind successful attacks Cyber attacks have the potential now to blow up or destroy power plants and industries.
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Cuba is an epicenter of cyber-attacks – China is already invested
| 781 | 66 | 445 | 130 | 11 | 73 | 0.084615 | 0.561538 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
|
Berkeley (CNDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
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3,697 |
Imagine logging into your bank account and the screen reads $0.00 you go to the grocery store and it’s closed, or power unexpectedly goes off in the middle of a sunny day. This scenario is a very real possibility, and a report released by Mandiant last week has renewed the debate in Washington over what the United States should do about it. A cyber attack on financial services, American businesses, and critical infrastructure would be catastrophic and cause massive panic and economic turmoil. This is our future if Washington doesn’t take strong action against the cyber attacks threatening the United States. Currently, China is the greatest cyber threat to the U.S. On a daily basis, hackers originating in China penetrate U.S. networks and compromise national security and economic competitiveness. According to Joel Brenner, a former senior counsel to the National Security Agency, the Chinese army has trained 30,000 cyber spies and sponsored more than 150,000 private sector cyber experts whose mission is to steal American military and technological secrets and cause mischief in government and financial services.
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Wolters 13 Rachel Wolters, expertise is in US-Sino relations, American foreign policy, cyber policy and the international balance of power and writer for Polymic.com, Cyber Attacks: How Washington Can Prepare For The Worst, March 8, 2013
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A cyber attack on financial services, American businesses, and critical infrastructure would be catastrophic and cause massive panic and economic turmoil Currently, China is the greatest cyber threat to the U.S. the Chinese army has trained 30,000 cyber spies and sponsored more than 150,000 private sector cyber experts whose mission is to steal American military and technological secrets and cause mischief in government and financial services.
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China preparing catastrophic cyber-attacks
| 1,127 | 43 | 448 | 177 | 4 | 66 | 0.022599 | 0.372881 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,698 |
In the wake of US President Barack Obama's recent tour of Latin America, media reports and commentators claimed that China has been economically outmuscling the United States in the region. The reality, however, is that Beijing's economic presence has not come at the expense of the United States. Although Washington still maintains an overwhelming edge, its influence is decreasing. This decline will be exacerbated by Obama's focus on boosting US exports to the region rather than importing more of Latin America's manufactured goods. ¶ True, China has become a key trading partner in Latin America during the last decade. Sino-Latin American trade has risen from¶ ¶ US$12 billion in 2000 to more than $140 billion today (though the region's trade deficit also rose from $950 million to $32 billion in 2009). ¶ Nevertheless, China's relations with Latin America need qualifying. In 2008, 90% of the region's exports to China originated in four South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru). The disparity of trade with China explains to some extent the different growth patterns within subregions in Latin America. In 2010, Central America's economy grew by 4.9% while South America's expanded by 6.6%. ¶ The current trade dynamic between China and South America is becoming a relationship of economic dependence that benefits Beijing. China is the largest export market for Brazil and Chile, and comes in second with Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela. Most exports consist of commodities such as iron ore, copper, copper ores and concentrates, and soya derivatives. In turn, up to 92% of Latin America's manufactured exports compete directly or indirectly with China's products, which ultimately results in deindustrialization for Latin America. In 2010, Brazil lost approximately 70,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector and $10 billion in income. ¶ Chinese carrots¶ However, Latin America is in no position to reject Chinese "aid". Such aid boils down to financing for a wide range of projects that comes with strings attached, such as a guarantee of access to certain natural resources, or the condition that Chinese companies undertake the projects. In 2009, China lent Brazil $10 billion in exchange for future oil shipments. In 2010, China advanced $20 billion to Venezuela to pump oil from the Orinoco Belt block and lent $10 billion to Argentina to renovate its aging railway system. Smaller loans have gone to other countries. ¶ In order not to completely undermine the Washington-designed and controlled Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the largest source of development financing for the region, China has become a donor member. In 2009, when it joined the bank at the height of the financial crisis, China committed $350 million. In late March 2011, the IDB and the Export-Import Bank of China signed a letter of intent to establish an infrastructure investment mechanism to finance public and private sector projects in Latin America. The catch, however, is the use of the yuan as one of the currencies to undertake these investments. ¶ Raising the yuan's profile in international trade enhances China's leverage over South America. Among the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China), Brazil and Russia supported China's call in 2009 to replace the dollar as a reserve currency with the International Monetary Fund's unit of account SDR (an international reserve asset created by the IMF in 1969 that has the potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency). The reality, however, is that the initiative would take years and is complicated by the inconvertibility of the yuan. ¶ In the meantime, China is promoting its currency in bilateral trade. In 2009, Argentina signed a 70 billion yuan ($10 billion) currency-swap agreement. Brazil tentatively agreed in 2009 to trade with China in yuan and reals. And this year, Peru became the first Latin American country where businesspeople can open yuan-denominated bank accounts to settle trade with China. ¶ Fear of China¶ Despite the strides that China has made in the region, countries remain apprehensive. The WikiLeaks diplomatic cables highlighted the level of suspicion. One Colombian trade representative based in Beijing noted that his country would not be "walked all over" by China "like Africa". A Mexican official stated that "we don't want to be China's next Africa". And the Brazilian consul general in Shanghai argued that "China's strategy is very clear: it is doing everything possible to control the supply of commodities." ¶ China's negotiation tactics in the region corroborate such apprehension. In 2010, after Argentina imposed anti-dumping measures on Chinese footwear and textile products when the government detected unfair competition, Beijing halted imports of soya oil, Argentina's main export, in retaliation. Despite Argentine concessions, Beijing has not resumed imports. ¶ In another example, last year, Ecuador suspended negotiations with China's Eximbank for a $1.7 billion loan after Quito found unacceptable a demand to provide the central bank's assets as collateral. Ecuador's president stated that "negotiating with China is worse than the IMF". The loan was eventually signed, but details are unclear. ¶ Beijing's actions to secure land for agriculture are also raising concerns in the region. China has 20% of the world's population but only 11% of its territory is suitable for agriculture. China's land acquisitions have been more prominent in Africa, but in recent years South America has received attention as well. ¶ In 2010, a Chinese firm's lease of 320,000 hectares of Argentine land created considerable opposition after the signed deal became public. The implications for local food sovereignty are at the forefront of worries. As a result, in February 2011, Cristina Kirchner, Argentina's president, announced plans to restrict the acquisition of land by foreigners. In Brazil, lawmakers are also considering amending the law to make it harder for foreigners to acquire land. ¶ South America's trade with the United States, meanwhile, is more balanced. The approximately $200 billion in annual bilateral trade between the United States and South America relies more on agricultural and manufactured products, rather than on the raw materials that China has extracted from the region. Moreover, the United States remains the single most important source of aid to the region. Throughout the last decade most countries have received economic aid for various health, educational, and environmental programs, but primarily for security initiatives. And even though the amount varies greatly among countries, this economic aid is fundamental for some government programs. Proposed cuts in the 2012 foreign aid budget could reduce such influence. The $1.98 billion budget is the lowest amount since 2007. ¶ Soft-power competition¶
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Castaneda, 13 ( Sebastian Castaneda, graduate student at University of Hong Kong and contributor to Foreign Policy in Focus. South America aware of risks to China ties. April 21, 2011. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MD21Ad01.html)
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The reality is that Beijing's economic presence has not come at the expense of the United States. China's relations with Latin America need qualifying Despite the strides that China has made in the region, countries remain apprehensive diplomatic cables highlighted the level of suspicion A Mexican official stated that "we don't want to be China's next Africa" ¶ China's negotiation tactics in the region corroborate such apprehension Ecuador's president stated that "negotiating with China is worse than the IMF". Beijing's actions to secure land for agriculture are also raising concerns in the region. ¶ South America's trade with the United States, meanwhile, is more balanced. The trade between the United States relies more on agricultural and manufactured products, rather than on the raw materials the United States remains the single most important source of aid to the region
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Chinese influence in LA is unsustainable – lack of trust
| 6,881 | 57 | 886 | 1,071 | 10 | 138 | 0.009337 | 0.128852 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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3,699 |
The dynamics of Washington's engagement with Latin America, in spite of historic grievances, renders the United States a more popular power than China. According to a 2010 Gallup poll, 50% of Latin Americans approve the job performance of the US leadership. In contrast, 28% of the region's respondents approve of China's leadership. The leadership of both countries rates a 20% of disapproval. There are no significant differences in response between Central and South America. ¶ More telling, however, are the results of a similar Gallup poll carried out in 2006. Five years ago, US approval ratings stood at 30% while disapproval reached 45%. Regarding China, although 28% approved of its leadership, 22% disapproved. Comparing the 2006 with the 2010 results, it is clear that Washington has gained an advantage in soft power over Beijing, especially given China's repression of human rights activists. ¶ China's economic activities in Latin America, especially South America, are not a zero-sum game. Although China's engagement results in more influence, Beijing's methods also decrease its effectiveness.
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Castaneda, 13 ( Sebastian Castaneda, graduate student at University of Hong Kong and contributor to Foreign Policy in Focus. South America aware of risks to China ties. April 21, 2011. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MD21Ad01.html)
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The dynamics of Washington's engagement with Latin America, in spite of historic grievances, renders the United States a more popular power than China. 0% of Latin Americans approve the job performance of the US leadership. In contrast, 28% of the region's respondents approve of China's leadership. Washington has gained an advantage in soft power over Beijing, especially given China's repression of human rights activists. China's economic activities in Latin America are not a zero-sum game Although China's engagement results in more influence, Beijing's methods also decrease its effectiveness
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Relations aren’t zero-sum – status quo proves
| 1,110 | 46 | 599 | 170 | 7 | 88 | 0.041176 | 0.517647 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative Updates - Berkeley 2013.html5
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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