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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0015
That changed on September 22 when President George W. Bush, Musharraf and Karzai held a three way meeting in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0016
The meeting was pushed together by the CIA and the US Defence Department who were desperately anxious to secure a peaceful election in Afghanistan and the non-interference of alleged Pakistani backed Taliban.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0017
Western and Afghan diplomats intimately involved with the meeting, said Bush pushed Musharraf hard on reigning in the Taliban so the elections could take place peacefully.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0018
‘’Where are Mullah Omar, Mullah Usmani and Gulbuddin Hikmetar?’’
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0019
Bush is reported to have asked a flustered Musharraf.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0020
All three are extremist Taliban or their allies and known to be living in Pakistan.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0021
(Mullah Omar is leader of the Taliban, Usmani is the former corps commander of Kandahar under the Taliban regime and now a commander of Taliban forces while Hikmetyar heads the extremist Hizb-e-Islami.)
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0022
‘’It was the first time that Bush totally focused on the Taliban threat rather than Al Qaeda with the Pakistanis,’’ says a Western diplomat.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0023
‘’Bush was very well briefed before the meeting,’’ the diplomat said.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0024
An Afghan official at the meeting added, ‘’The Americans now realise that the Taliban are a bigger threat to our security than Al Qaeda.’’
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0025
Karzai was clearly pleased at the results.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0026
‘’President Musharraf promised to help us and cooperate with us on curbing terrorist activity by the Taliban,’’ says Karzai.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0027
The next day an angry Musharraf categorically said that Pakistan would not send Pakistani troops to Iraq, a clear snub to the Americans.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0028
Until then he had said Pakistan ’s options were open.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0029
However Pakistani officials insist that the decision was unconnected to the tripartite meeting.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0030
US and NATO military officers in Kabul say it is too early to say whether Bush ’s tough message was instrumental in persuading Musharraf and the ISI to pressure the Taliban to restrain from disrupting the elections.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0031
However there were visible signs of a crackdown on the Pakistan side.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0032
‘’Pakistan now has a large force deployed in Baluchistan which was not there before,’’ says Lt. General David Barno.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0033
‘’There is much better tactical cooperation between our forces on both sides of the border, but the movement of Taliban still goes on both ways,’’ he adds.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0034
Also several days before the elections Pakistan closed the border crossing point at Chaman in Baluchistan which is a key entry point for the Taliban into Afghanistan.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0035
However US military officers say regular army officers - many of them Pashtun - leading units of the Frontier Corps who are on the border remain deeply sympathetic to the Taliban and the mullahs of the JUI.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0036
At the same time the US remains oblivious of the serious problems and political fallout which the army is facing in its operations in Waziristan.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0037
Not only is the army facing serious political fallout, growing anti-Americanism and anti-army feeling in the tribal areas but it is also taking heavy casualties -between 400-500 Pakistani soldiers have been killed in the region since March.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0038
Musharraf has always maintained that the US has never provided actionable intelligence about Taliban leaders hiding in Baluchistan.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0039
That too may change.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0040
US and Afghan intelligence will shortly be presenting the ISI with a list of Taliban extremists and their suspected whereabouts.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0041
Moreover there are now major covert attempts under way to try and bring back to Kabul leading Taliban commanders, who have been living quietly in Pakistan and have taken no part in the Taliban insurgency.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0042
With the Taliban failure to disrupt the Afghan elections, the militants are even more isolated from the mainstream Taliban who want to return home.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0043
Until now Pakistan has not facilitated such a return and clearly it can not happen until there is both a pull from Kabul and a push from Islamabad.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0044
With President Karzai certain to win the elections and the demotion of key former Northern Alliance figures such as General Fahim and warlord Ismail Khan, there is now little reason for moderate Taliban leaders to fear reprisals from former Northern Alliance figures if they return home.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0045
Their removal should also provide increased motivation for Pakistan to help the return of moderate Taliban.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0046
Afghan officials welcomed the appointment on October 3 of Lt. General Ashfaq Kiyani as the new ISI chief.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0047
Kayani is well known and liked in Kabul as during the last year he led the Pakistani delegation in the tripartite military meetings with the Afghan and US military on issues related to border issues.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0048
Karzai also has to deal with the stepped up rivalry between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0049
Islamabad accuses New Delhi of using its consulates in Kandahar and Jalalabad to train Balochi insurgents who are active in Pakistani Balochistan.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0050
Pakistani officials claim there are as many as 42 RAW agents based in Kandahar and another 12 in Jalalabad.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0051
“There have no business being there unless they are undermining Pakistan,’’ says a Pakistani official.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0052
Both India and Afghanistan deny the claim.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0053
‘’Should Pakistan show us any evidence of an Indian hand using Afghan soil to work against our neighbours we will take it very seriously,” says Amrullah Saleh the head of Afghanistan ’s National Security Directorate.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0054
Karzai categorically said that he has assured Musharraf repeatedly that any adverse action against Pakistan taken by Indian diplomats inside Afghanistan would be acted upon swiftly.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0055
Senior US diplomats and military officials have warned India also.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0056
In a major regional shift reflecting the newly strengthened position of Karzai, Iran, Russia and India which have traditionally backed the Tajik dominated former Northern Alliance made strenuous efforts to convince presidential candidate Younis Qanooni to strike a deal with Karzai before the elections and not to oppose Karzai.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0057
Iran in particular feared that Qanooni would loose and then be politically isolated from the mainstream.
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Qanooni refused to accept the Iranian advice as his fellow Panjsheri Tajiks urged him to stand against Karzai.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0059
However since the elections Iranian influence has proved critical in convincing the Hazara Shia candidate Mohammed Mohaqeq to accept the results of the elections and later convincing Qanooni to do the same.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0060
With the US military presence posing a threat on their borders in both Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran ’s moderate leadership is keen to help stabilise Karzai so that the US presence in Afghanistan is reduced.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0061
However powerful hardliners in Tehran may be trying to undermine that strategy and a new issue is likely to deepen the rift with the moderates.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0062
Iranian officials are deeply concerned about the US occupation of Shindand, a massive Soviet-era airbase just 30 kilometres from Iran ’s border.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0063
The enhanced US presence in western Afghanistan was only made possible after the ousting of Ismail Khan, the warlord and Governor of Herat province last month, who was a close ally of Iranian hardliners.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0064
Iranian officials say they made no objections to Khan ’s ouster because they want to strengthen Karzai ’s campaign against warlords.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0065
At a time of heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington over Iran ’s nuclear weapons program and calls by neo-conservatives in Washington that a second Bush term should deal with Iran aggressively, the Iranians fear that Shindand could be used as a listening post, spying facility and even a launching pad for any future US actions against Iran.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0066
Afghan officials say the Americans have moved over 100 Special Forces and helicopters to Shindand.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0067
However General Barno insists the US presence poses no threat to Iran.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0068
‘’We have a very small number of forces in Shindand with a few helicopters,’’ says Barno.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0069
Nevertheless this places Karzai in a difficult and sensitive situation because he has to maintain excellent relations with both the US and Iran.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0070
‘’Afghanistan has had the benefit of cooperation from both the US and Iran.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0071
So far what they have done together has been good for us and that ’s how we would like to keep it’’, says Karzai.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0072
Nobody can claim that the interference of Afghanistan ’s neighbours is over, but the elections will do much to strengthen Karzai and deal more firmly with neighbours ’ interference.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0073
In the post election scenario it is becoming abundantly clear that the Taliban do not have the support of the Afghan people nor the Afghan Pashtuns.
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In a highly significant move Afghan Pashtun tribes along the Pakistan border warned the Taliban in Quetta and Chaman that if they try and disrupt the elections, they would be resisted.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0075
Many Taliban living in Afghanistan voted for President Karzai.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0076
It is now abundantly clear that with the rapidly changing face of Afghanistan, the demise of key Northern Alliance figures and the fluid political situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan should reconsider its policy of giving unlimited sanctuary to Taliban extremists living on Pakistani soil.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041016151002_ENG_20041016_151002-0077
Pakistan Link 16/10/2004
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0001
Unreported by the international media, the Valley of Kashmir has seen an ethnic and cultural genocide that has resulted in the fleeing from the valley of almost all the Hindu families who have been living there since human habitation was first recorded.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0002
Over nine dozen temples that had served the Hindu population have been destroyed, with some used as building material and others as urinals.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0003
Thus far, none of the many "human rights" busybodies across the world have bothered to even notice such a development.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0004
Musharraf calls the bluff
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0005
M.D. Nalapat
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0006
While most U.S. secretaries of state -- save perhaps Dean Rusk -- have gobbled up credit for outcomes that they had little to do with, few have been as brazen as Colin Powell.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0007
Two years ago, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was surprised when the leader of the main Islamist alliance -- Maulana Fazlur Rahman -- visited India and issued a series of highly conciliatory statements.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0008
As Pakistan 's president had been telling the United States he was "forced" into taking a hawkish line on India precisely by the likes of Rahman, this was an embarrassment.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0009
The reality is that India is no longer the enemy of choice for the people of Pakistan.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0010
That distinction has now gone to the United States.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0011
Realists, and this even includes members of the U.S. Democratic foreign policy establishment such as Strobe Talbott, who have long sought to divest India of its defensive capability against another nuclear power in Asia, understand the only feasible solution for Kashmir is the acceptance of the status quo.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0012
India keeps what it has while Pakistan and China (which was gifted a slice of the territory three decades ago) do likewise.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0013
Simultaneously, New Delhi would ensure a degree of autonomy for the state that would help cut popular support off from jihadis attempting to convert Kashmir into a second Afghanistan.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0014
Bill Clinton understood this at the end of his term in office yet, under Colin Powell (who appears to have an affinity for generals active in politics), the pendulum of U.S. policy has once again swung toward a quixotic effort to prize at least the Valley of Kashmir loose from India.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0015
This, Pakistan 's lobbyist in Washington Christina Rocca has been told, is the "minimum" that the Pakistan army will accept.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0016
It is also far more than what any administration in New Delhi can deliver.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0017
This writer has for years regarded the best solution to the Kashmir problem as being the trifurcation of the Indian part of the state into a Hindu-majority Jammu, a Buddhist-dominated Ladakh and the overwhelmingly Muslim Kashmir Valley, with the third state given little of taxpayers ' money but substantial autonomy.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0018
With luck, the Kashmir Valley can attract investment from the Middle East and other locations where Muslims are dominant and become a tourist, education and services haven within India.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0019
The overwhelming majority of Muslims in Kashmir would be happy with such an outcome, except for the tiny jihadi segment patronized by the U.S. State Department and the Pakistan Army, which would like to even the score with India for their catastrophic defeat in Bangladesh in 1971.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0020
Unreported by the international media, the Valley of Kashmir has seen an ethnic and cultural genocide that has resulted in the fleeing from the valley of almost all the Hindu families who have been living there since human habitation was first recorded.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0021
Over nine dozen temples that had served the Hindu population have been destroyed, with some used as building material and others as urinals.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0022
Thus far, none of the many "human rights" busybodies across the world have bothered to even notice such a development.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0023
Indeed, their reports are filled with tales of the "atrocities" of Indian troops on the innocent jihadis.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0024
Despite Sept. 11, the United States still supports the Kashmir groups that back jihad as part of the price Washington is paying to keep Pervez Musharraf happy.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0025
Unfortunately for them, the general has decided to take seriously Colin Powell 's frequent boasts that it was on his nudging that the Indians made conciliatory gestures toward Islamabad.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0026
The U.S. State Department and the misnamed think tanks that follow its lead have held numerous conferences on Kashmir and, in most of them, the solution that has emerged is a valley prized loose from Indian control and under its own version of Ibrahim Rugova.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0027
That India is not Yugoslavia and that the "foreigner-led" Indian National Congress can least afford to ignore Indian nationalism, has not struck the conferees, among whom have been several Indian "scholars" and "analysts" ready to say and endorse anything for the sake of a free trip to New York or Vienna.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0028
Despite many wrinkles, India remains a part-democracy and merely signing on to a piece of paper that calls for an independent Kashmir does not get you into the trouble that writing an op-ed piece against Sonia Gandhi or Atal Behari Vajpayee would instantly.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0029
It was the business community in India that stepped in after Vajpayee indulged in an empty bout of saber rattling in 2002, pointing out that the only beneficiary of the mythical perception that war -- especially nuclear war -- was around the corner in the subcontinent was China.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0030
The reason for this is that India is emerging as an alternative investment destination to China, hence the favor that the generals in Islamabad do to their trusty supplier of nukes and missiles by creating a scare about war involving India when in fact the real flashpoints are the Taiwan Straits and North Korea.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0031
Since then, India has talked peace while always signaling that only the status quo would be acceptable as a final settlement: a line of action that is followed in the case of disputes with China as well.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0032
Unfortunately for those eager to indefinitely carry on with the lucrative business of conflict resolution in South Asia, Pervez Musharraf has now called Colin Powell 's bluff, challenging him to deliver on his frequent statements implying that the Indians jump to his commands.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0033
Once the Manmohan Singh government shows that it has little appetite for suicide, Musharraf will face the moment of truth: accept the inevitable, or once again ramp up the insurgency and spawn a fresh lot of killers that can hit not merely Mumbai and New Delhi but London and Chicago as well.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0034
The one country that has shown that it understands the realities in South Asia is China.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0035
Under President Hu Jintao, Beijing has opened out to New Delhi and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao is expected to visit early next year, making friends by formally accepting Sikkim as part of India and backing India as a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council -- thus leaving Washington as the only one of the "permanent five" that has not yet done so.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0036
With Colin Powell around, the U.S. has no need of an Osama bin Laden
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0037
M.D. Nalapat, an expert on jihad, is professor of geopolitics at the Manipal Academy of Higher Education, India.
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