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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041028153019_ENG_20041028_153019-0038
Washington Times 28/10/2004
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0001
Tamils feel that the proposed defense agreement between India and Sri Lanka would encourage Sinhala rulers to prepare for another war abandoning the current peace process
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0002
But there are strong hints in the country that a new Indo-Sri Lanka defense deal could be in the making.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0003
And this has already drawn protests from the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) which was backed by the LTTE in the April general elections held in Sri Lanka.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0004
Apart from the 1,200 Indian lives lost in 1987, the Indian peacekeeping force was immensely unpopular not only in Tamil Nadu and the Jaffna peninsula but also among the Sinhalese majority who considered it a violation of their country 's sovereignty.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0005
India defensive over Sri Lanka
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0006
By Ranjit Devraj
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0007
NEW DELHI -
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0008
While India is ready to enter into a "defense cooperation agreement" with Sri Lanka, it is wary of being drawn into any military involvement in the island nation 's two decades-old civil war that has seen violent strife between ethnic Tamils and the Sinhalese majority - leaving over 60,000 dead on both sides.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0009
And that explains the delay in the signing of a formal defense agreement that was at the heart of Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga 's four-day visit to India recently.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0010
According to Professor S D Muni, South Asia expert at the Jawaharal Nehru University, the two-year peace talks between Colombo and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are stalemated.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0011
For that reason, he said, Kumaratunga 's government was keen to beef up military preparedness with Indian support.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0012
"The Sri Lankan government does not want to initiate a conflict but would be interested in deterring the LTTE from starting one.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0013
And the Tigers look as if they are on the brink of launching another offensive," Muni told IPS.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0014
Colombo held six rounds of talks with the Tigers between September 2002 and March 2003.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0015
But last April, the rebels abruptly pulled out of negotiations demanding recognition, first, for the right to self-rule before proceeding any further.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0016
Kumaratunga 's India tour preceded a three-day visit to Sri Lanka by Norwegian Foreign Minister Jan Petersen in a new bid to revive the peace talks that were supposed to follow a ceasefire that Oslo successfully brokered in February 2002.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0017
Petersen held discussions with both Kumaratunga and the reclusive LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran in the rebel stronghold of Kilinochchi without success, and chief Tamil rebel negotiator Anton Balasingham and Norwegian envoy Erik Solheim held closed-door talks at the international airport late Saturday in an effort to keep the salvage effort on track, diplomatic sources said.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0018
But they, too, failed.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0019
Colombo, too, seems to be in an intractable position.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0020
According to former Indian army general A S Kalkat, the difficulty for Kumaratunga 's government lay in the fact that the LTTE had become a de jure power in the north and east of the island and was running every aspect of civil administration in the areas within its control.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0021
A veteran of India 's military intervention in the Jaffna peninsula to help implement the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Peace Accord - which ambitiously provided for the disarming of the formidable LTTE - Kalkat said the new defense deal would essentially be a reiteration of the older one minus its military commitment.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0022
Kalkat, who currently chairs the independent US-based International Council on Conflict Resolution, said despite the failure of the Indian army to disarm or even subdue the Tigers, India remained the only power capable of influencing the course of the current peace talks.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0023
"The Norwegians mean well but their role is limited to that of honest broker and the LTTE is keenly aware that they do not have the power [unlike India] to underwrite any arrangement," Kalkat told IPS in an interview.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0024
In 1987, the Tamil Tigers reluctantly accepted the peace accord under Indian pressure.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0025
Under the accord, a new northeastern provincial council was formed and the Indian army was deployed as peacekeepers in the north and east.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0026
However, differences between India and LTTE soon surfaced and led to clashes between Tiger guerrillas and the Indian peace keeping force.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0027
About 1,200 Indian soldiers were killed during this phase of the conflict.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0028
India had to pull back its forces from Sri Lanka in 1989 following the election of Ranasinghe Premadasa, a strong critic of Indian mediation.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0029
Last June, an international initiative led by Japan to persuade the LTTE to come back to the negotiating table failed despite an aid package offer of US$4.5 billion.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0030
Japan 's special envoy, Yasushi Akashi, who called for tangible progress in the peace process before the money would be released, came back from visits to Colombo and Kilinochchi in early November a frustrated man.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0031
He complained about the "visible lack of progress" and reaching an impasse in talks with both sides.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0032
The Tigers ' chief ideologue, Balasingham, sniffed at the proposal saying that "a solution to the ethnic conflict can not be predetermined by the resolutions or declarations of donor conferences, but has to be negotiated by the parties in conflict without the constraints of external forces."
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0033
But there are strong hints in the country that a new Indo-Sri Lanka defense deal could be in the making.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0034
And this has already drawn protests from the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) which was backed by the LTTE in the April general elections held in Sri Lanka.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0035
"Tamils feel that the proposed defense agreement between India and Sri Lanka would encourage Sinhala rulers to prepare for another war abandoning the current peace process," TNA member of parliament P Sithamparanathan was quoted as saying in a statement.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0036
She added that recent visits to the island by India 's top military brass including army chief General Nirmal Chander Vij have "caused apprehension among Tamils that preparations are under way for another war in the island".
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0037
But Kalkat pointed out that India would be ill-advised to be involved again, militarily, with Sri Lanka if only because it still had to consider the sentiments of 45 million ethnic Tamils in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu - separated from Sri Lanka 's Jaffna peninsula by the narrow Palk Straits.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0038
Apart from the 1,200 Indian lives lost in 1987, the Indian peacekeeping force was immensely unpopular not only in Tamil Nadu and the Jaffna peninsula but also among the Sinhalese majority who considered it a violation of their country 's sovereignty.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0039
The best option, now, under the present difficult circumstances is for Colombo to do its own dirty work, although New Delhi can always be counted on to render good neighborly help because of the shared belief that religion, ethnicity and language can not be the basis for secession.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0040
In any case, Kalkat puts it succinctly: "There can not be a military option to what is a political situation."
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20041119231111_ENG_20041119_231111-0041
Asia Times Online 16/11/2004
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0001
+ As the implications of the Andaman Islands situation sink in, Indian intelligence has inevitably come under scrutiny.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0002
In recent months, its fallibility has become evident.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0003
The inability to foresee in advance the assassination attempt on the pro-India political leader and former Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed last August 21 at a political rally in Dhaka, and the recent "coup" by Nepalese King Gyanendra dismissing his government and imposing a virtual absolute monarchy, are glaring examples of intelligence failure. +
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0004
Trouble on India 's islands
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0005
Ramtanu Maitra
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0006
In early February, India charged 34 Arakan separatists from Myanmar with hiding in the Landfall Islands, part of the Andaman Islands group (see end note).
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0007
These alleged members of the Arakan Army, the military wing of the National Unity Party in Myanmar, have been charged with illegal entry.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0008
It is likely, but not certain, that they will be deported to Myanmar.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0009
But the news of the Arakan rebels is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to growing concern in New Delhi over the security of the Andaman Islands.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0010
Reports are circulating in the intelligence community that the Andaman Islands are not only thick with Myanmar rebels.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0011
It has also become an arms depot of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), who operate almost freely in the Andaman Sea.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0012
Information pointing in this direction came to light after the December 26 tsunami, which took a heavy toll on the Andamans.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0013
Correspondents who flocked in to cover the tsunami found they also had another story - the miserable security situation surrounding the Indian navy 's Far Eastern Naval Command, now being established along with India 's "blue water navy".
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0014
Deteriorating security
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0015
Security problems in the Andaman Sea are not new, but they have deteriorated during the past few years, in tandem with a deterioration in the security situation in Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan, and particularly in the northeastern Indian states of Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0016
While the Indian army has become rock-solid in the western front, and has developed the capability of withstanding any Pakistani adventure in that sector, it has become highly vulnerable in its eastern sector, where its enemy is not a national army but a multitude of secessionist, terrorist and drug-running militants operating between Southeast Asia and northeastern India through Bangladesh.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0017
The Andaman Sea is a major conduit for this traffic, and the 572 large and small islands that constitute the Andaman and Nicobar group are a natural transit base.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0018
The drugs and arms travel in all directions.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0019
Since the "Sea Tigers" of the LTTE, better known as the Tamil Tigers, are the ones who rule the Andaman Sea: they carry the arms and drugs for their own use and also to deliver to rebels in Aceh and all along the east coast of Africa.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0020
It is old news that the Tamil Tigers have developed a strong network within South Africa.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0021
This is not unknown to New Delhi.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0022
A recent report by a journalist from Port Blair, in the Andamans, quoted an unnamed official saying that foreigners from Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have permanently settled in the islands, using fake Indian ration cards, while citizens of Thailand, China, Indonesia and Malaysia have migrated temporarily to plunder the natural resources and leave.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0023
"Port Blair, Havelock Islands, Diglipur, Middle Nicobar, Campbell 's Bay, Neil Islands and Rangott are mostly overrun by foreigners," he said.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0024
An official estimate issued in 2003 suggests there are 50,000 "foreigners" in the Andaman Islands, but unofficial figures are much higher than this.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0025
A large number of them are Bangladeshis, who like millions of their countrymen have left their densely populated homeland to settle elsewhere.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0026
As most of them have few technical skills, and the Andamans have little demand for them in any case, they turn to smuggling and other unlawful activities.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0027
The presence of the Sea Tigers in the area with guns, cash and drugs makes the situation extremely dangerous.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0028
Reports from Port Blair make it evident that New Delhi gets little on-the-ground intelligence, and the Indian Coast Guard is grossly unequipped to deal with the surge of illegal migrants to the islands.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0029
One unnamed naval officer was quoted saying, "Arms smuggling is a very profitable business in this region."
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0030
Considering the islands ' huge strategic importance, it is amazing how lax New Delhi has been.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0031
These islands sit aside the vital sea lanes of the Strait of Malacca, through which 300 tankers and merchant ships pass daily, bringing in oil for the Far East and Southeast Asia.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0032
Intelligence lapses
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0033
As the implications of the Andaman Islands situation sink in, Indian intelligence has inevitably come under scrutiny.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0034
In recent months, its fallibility has become evident.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0035
The inability to foresee in advance the assassination attempt on the pro-India political leader and former Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed last August 21 at a political rally in Dhaka, and the recent "coup" by Nepalese King Gyanendra dismissing his government and imposing a virtual absolute monarchy, are glaring examples of intelligence failure.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0036
With growing economic and military power, India will be dependent on smaller nations in the region increasingly to maintain regional security.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0037
Unless New Delhi does better in providing security to its own nationals against rebels, secessionists, drug runners and arms traffickers, it will not generate much confidence in the capitals of surrounding nations.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0038
In fact, it would tend to encourage more organized anti-India outfits, such as the Pakistani Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI) and outside-linked Maoists, to exploit these networks and weaken India 's eastern flank.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0039
Indian intelligence 's lackluster performance in dealing with the LTTE is startling.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0040
This formidable enemy, which gave the Indian army a black eye in the mid-1980s, has been operating in northeastern India and in the Andaman Sea for a long time.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0041
In 2001, according to Indian army officials, security forces launched a wide-ranging operation in the 300-some inhabited islands neighboring Andaman and Nicobar, and found huge caches of arms.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0042
The arms were said to belong to the LTTE and "other terrorist groups".
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0043
The search-and-destroy operation was carried out by the Indian government after repeated requests from Colombo.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0044
In addition, LTTE activity in the Andaman Sea is well known to local observers.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0045
The biggest LTTE maritime disaster was reported in the now-defunct Asiaweek in 2001.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0046
A shipment of weapons, ammunition and explosives, believed to have been purchased from Cambodia and worth several million dollars, left the port of Phuket in Thailand in early February 2001 aboard the freighter Comex-Joux 3.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0047
As is LTTE standard procedure, the vessel changed its name at sea to Horizon.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0048
On its journey across the Bay of Bengal the freighter was tracked by the Indian navy and Orissa-based spy planes of India 's Aviation Research Center; it was intercepted by Indian naval vessels off Sri Lanka 's east coast.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0049
LTTE arms-running
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0050
In 1997, the Thai navy reported the interception of a 16-meter boat after a chase off the Thai port of Ranong, and the confiscation of two tons of weapons and ammunition.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0051
Among the weapons intercepted were two rocket-propelled-grenade launchers, 20 assault rifles, M-79 grenade launchers and more than 10,000 rounds of ammunition.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0052
Four persons were arrested, reportedly belonging to the Manipur Revolutionary People 's Front.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0053
Six crew members were from the Arakan region of Myanmar.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0054
The boat was heading toward Cox 's Bazar in Bangladesh.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0055
Until 1995 the LTTE maintained a base at Twante, an island off the coat of Myanmar, west of the Andaman islands.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0056
Subsequently, Phuket became the LTTE 's main backup base.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0057
A Sri Lanka-born Tamil with a Norwegian passport was arrested by Thai authorities in 2000 for his links with the LTTE.
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weblog-blogspot.com_dakbangla_20050210141134_ENG_20050210_141134-0058
At the time of his arrest, the suspect was allegedly involved in constructing a "submarine" in a shipyard on the island of Sirae near Phuket on the Andaman Sea coast.
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