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I loved every moment of Jaidyn’s senior session! She’s a member of my 2021 Senior Model Team, so we’ve already had a couple of shoots together and fun time with the team. One of my favorite features of Jaidyn is her contagious smile! She can light up the room, or the park in this case! […]
December 16, 2020
The session started with the bold, striped, flared jeans. I shouldn’t have been surprised when Laura chose them for her signature look. With her bubbly and outgoing personality, they were the perfect choice! I had such a blast with Laura, who happens to be on my 2021 Senior Model Team! We spent time at the […]
Downtown Nashville Senior Session With A Bold Look
November 17, 2020
I was so looking forward to Claire’s senior session! She is on my 2021 Senior Model Team, so we have already had shoots together and have gotten to know each other. She is such a delight to spend time with, and she is definitely a natural in front of the camera! Our locations were the […]
November 6, 2020
Lauren’s senior session was a dream! She wanted her session on and around the stunning Pedestrian bridge in Downtown Nashville, and we had a blast! Lauren has a creative eye and natural charisma in front of the camera, so it was so fun and easy to capture her sweet personality. She does a little photography […]
Pedestrian Bridge Senior Session in Downtown Nashville
October 16, 2020
Caden’s senior session was so fun! He wanted to keep his locations simple, so we headed to his school, Blackman High, and then to a section of Stones River Battlefield for some nature. I loved Caden’s easy going attitude, and his kind spirit. Also, his suit was killer! Caden plans to attend UT Knoxville next […]
October 10, 2020
I was so excited to do Nali’s senior session in Downtown Nashville! She lives in Murfreesboro like me, but she wanted somewhere a little different! We started out near the Bridge Building overlooking the skyline, and we finished in the 12 South area. I loved the distinct differences in locations, and Nali made everywhere look […]
Senior Portrait Session In Downtown Nashville
September 3, 2020
I had a great senior session with Mac at Buzzard Springs Farm! It’s a little south of Murfreesboro, and I definitely recommend it as an awesome location. Then, we finished off at Siegel soccer park. I loved going from the rustic farm to the high energy of the soccer field! Mac is an easy going […]
August 18, 2020
Rylee’s senior session was at stunning Sinking Creek Farm. She wanted a mix of sunflowers (she LOVES sunflowers!) and a creek, and Sinking Creek Farm has both! We decided to do an early morning session because late July in TN is insanely hot and humid. Rylee tells me she’s an introvert and has never been […]
Summer Senior Session at Sinking Creek Farm
August 12, 2020
I got to spend a fun (and humid) afternoon with Shawn for his senior session! Shawn is an exchange student, and in normal circumstances he travels home for the summer. But, since COVID took over he has been unable to return home. I can’t imagine how difficult it must be, but he seems like such […]
Senior Guy Portrait Session in Downtown Murfreesboro
August 2, 2020
I had such a great senior session with Micah! We decided to do an early morning session because it’s summer time in Middle Tennessee, and that equals hot and very humid. We started off at Cannonsburgh Village and finished up at the square in downtown Murfreesboro. Despite the early hour, Micah was full of personality, […]
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From free-ranging dog to new home. It sounds like a fairy-tale, but how does it work out? Photo: Yanaskaya / Shutterstock.com By Zazie Todd, PhD This page contains affiliate links which means I may earn a commission on qualifying purchases at no cost to you. Get Companion Animal Psychology in your inbox. A recent survey by Yasemin Salgiri Demirbas (Ankara University) et al investigates how well free-roaming urban dogs fit into a family home once they are adopted. The results show the dogs adapt well to their new homes. The scientists say, “Every year in Turkey, thousands of free-ranging dogs are brought to dog shelters. These dogs are mongrel dogs with stray origins.” There is often a bias against adopting dogs that have been stray in case they have behaviour problems, and they can spend a long time waiting for a home. The researchers wanted to know if people’s misgivings are well-founded. 75 homes that had adopted a free-ranging dog completed the survey. Some dogs
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- March 18, 2015
What can pet owners learn from the way scientists give animals choices in research? Photo: Shapiro Svetlana/Shutterstock By Zazie Todd, PhD This page contains affiliate links which means I may earn a commission on qualifying purchases at no cost to you. When people take part in research, scientists must ensure they give informed consent. When the participants are pets, owners give consent on their behalf: they understand the risks of the research and they have the right to end their participation at any time (e.g. if they feel their dog is stressed). We can’t ask animals about their feelings, but scientists have several ways they give the pets a choice. In Sarah Ellis et al’s recent (2015) paper on feline stroking preferences , cats were stroked in their own homes by two different people and were free to walk away at any time. 18 out of 34 cats walked away at some point during the first study, and 3 out of 20 in the second study, showing the importance of the choice.
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- March 11, 2015
People expect cats to enjoy affection, but what’s the cat’s opinion? Research shows where cats prefer to be petted. Photo: Wongwea/Shutterstock By Zazie Todd, PhD This page contains affiliate links which means I may earn a commission on qualifying purchases at no cost to you. Research by Dr. Sarah Ellis ( University of Lincoln ) et al investigated how cats respond to being stroked by their owner and an unfamiliar person, and which parts of the body they prefer to be petted. The results show cats have definite preferences. It is thought that animals prefer petting from humans to be similar to the ways animals show affection to members of their own species. Don’t worry, this doesn’t mean you are expected to lick your cat (affectionate cats often lick each other, something called allo-grooming). But friendly feline behaviour involves certain parts of the body where there are many scent glands: around the lips, chin and cheek (peri-oral gland); between the eyes and ear
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Taking Care of your Pet Rabbit
- March 04, 2015
Rabbits are the third most popular pet, but how should you look after them? By Zazie Todd, PhD This page contains affiliate links which means I may earn a commission on qualifying purchases at no cost to you. A study by Nicola Rooney ( University of Bristol ) et al asked 1254 rabbit owners about how they housed, fed, played with and otherwise cared for their rabbit. The good news is that “many pet rabbits were found to be in good health, had compatible companions and were provided with enriched living areas.” But there were also many areas where things could be improved. The most common type of rabbit was a Lop, followed by Lionheads, Netherland Dwarfs and mixed breeds. The rabbits were aged 2 to almost 13 years, and most came from a pet store or a garden centre. Housing for Rabbits 59% of the rabbits lived in a cage or rabbit hutch, and 28% in the house with a cage. 8% lived in an outbuilding, while almost 6% lived in the house without a cage. A handful of ra
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Early pre-stages of printmaking in China was the use of wooden stamps for reproducing Daoist and Buddhist images and for printing on textiles, and also the cutting of stone reliefs. The basic condition was the invention of paper which is dated to 105 A D, when the court official Ts'ai Lun presented to the emperor a paper which he had, based on earlier papermaking techniques, signifacantly improved.
Woodblock printmaking started during the Tang Period (618-907), probably during the 8. Century. A pre-stage at that time might have been also the technique of stone rubbing, which emerged around the 7th century, when humid paper was brushed onto a stone relief and inked in dry state with ink on a tampon. In woodblock printing, a paper was rubbed onto an inked woodblock with the help of a brush. The oldest remaining Chinese book, and one of the oldest remaining prints worldwide, is the Diamond-Sutra found at Dunhuang, dated to 868, a 5m-long scroll with a beautiful and technically perfect frontispiece showing the preaching Buddha. In the early days, Buddhist and Taoist images and texts as well as more mundane things like playing cards and calendars were printed with woodblocks. A huge industry of governmental and private publishers emerged.
During the Period of the five Dynasties (907-960), big editions of Confuzian classics were printed, ordered from the court. The Song Period is famous for the fine prints due to beautiful types and a high printing quality. Painters, cutters, printers and bookbinders started to specialize on their crafts. Other major printing projects, ordered by the court, were done for reproducing classics of literature and religious texts of Daoism and Buddhism. Papier money and letter papers was printed. In the 10th Century, the bound book developed from the scroll. For the public, entertaining books with illustrations were printed privately. Also the new-year's prints, nien-hua, emerged, symbolic images for pasting onto doors and in the house.
Since the 14th Century, multi-colour printing was done. Printmaking came to a new prime during the Ming Period (1368 - 1644). A pioneer of printing with colours, especially gradations, and embossing was the official and artist Hu Cheng Yen (1582? - 1672?), who published the famous "Ten Bamboo Studio Collection" in 1622 - 1627, beautifully reproduced calligraphies and ink paintings, and also letterpaper with fine embossings ( images of woodblock prints from the Ming Period).
The traditional collaboration work changed in the beginning of the 20th century, when, under the impression of Western printmaking, artists started to design, cut and print their woodblock prints on their own. In the 30ies, the intellectual Lu Xun initiated a woodblock-print movement, suggesting to use this technique for political and enlightenment purposes, presenting prints of the German artist Käthe Kollwitz. Influenced by this, artists created numerous black-and-white prints with critical political and social content. Since the 40ies, based on the political directives coming from the Soviet Union, the woodblock themes started to lean on the social realism. In the following years the technique was mainly used as means of propaganda, often practized in teams.
Today, in the lively Chinese printmaking scene, woodblock printmaking is done in various ways: with the use of oil- and water-based inks, and with several registration systems.
The following introduction of woodblock printmaking refers to the traditional woodblock, which is still practiced in some studios.
Mostly pear was and is used, preferably of the huge trees from Shandong, however jujube is used as well.
The design is done on a special, very thin paper. For transferring it to the block, rice paste is spread onto the block and the paper is pasted with the front side down quickly to the block, by starting on one side and flattening it to the other. Afterwards the paper fibres on the back of the paper are carefully rubbed off, until only the painted lines remain on the block.
Cutting the blocks
Cutting is mainly done with a special fist knife, the quan dao. This knife is custom-made for the users fist. It emerged in the Tang period (618 - 907).
The quan dao is forged in bow form with two points. With the front point the lines are cut, with the back point the remaining wood is scraped or pushed away.
This way very detailed parts of the block can be cut exclusively with this knife. For less detailed parts gouges are used additionly.
As opposed to Japanese and Western woodblocks, the different details of a design are not cut into a single block but distributed to several small blocks, which are fixed in the right position on the printing table.
This is done with a resin, which is flexible while being warmed, and keeps the blocks in place after hardening.
For printing a special printing device is used – a table with a gap. The papers are attached on the edge right beside this gap under a slat and then flipped over to the right. Left from the gap, the blocks are fixed onto the table with the resin. The right position of the blocks is found by touching the blocks through the first of the attached papers.
For every printing the blocks have to be inked with a special printing brush (please see below). Sometimes the ink is diluted with another brush for creating gradations. After inking, a paper is flipped over the blocks and rubbed with the hand printing tool (please see below). The inks condition (concentrated, diluted, very wet, almost dry, pasty) and the pressure during printing influence the result.
After printing the paper is dropped into the gap. When all the papers are printed and dried, the printing of the next color can start.
Printing is done on dry paper or silk.
Traditionally, inks made of plants are used, which are diluted to the wished intensity with water.
The printing brush is made from palm leaf fibers.
The tool for printing is a piece of wood covered with palm leaf fibers and horse hair on top.
I want to thank Mr. Lu Zhiping for organizing the demonstration at the Peninsula Art Center Shanghai and Mr. and Mrs. Lu Qinghua for demonstrating the techniques. You can see woodblock prints, copied from originals from the Ming period by Mr. and Mrs. Lu Qinghua, on the website of my studio druckstelle.
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POKER TOURNAMENT RULES QUESTIONS & DISCUSSIONS => Poker TDA Rules & Procedures Questions, General => Topic started by: Ash on December 29, 2019, 07:59:38 PM
Post by: Ash on December 29, 2019, 07:59:38 PM
Second question for today
on the previous hand a player losts almost all his chips, less than the small blind amount remaining.
Then he decides to leave the room and to abandon his chips.
Because there are still chips remaining you continue to deal cards to his place, but what happens when he is in big blind?
His hand still alive and he can win in opening his hand at the end of the last turn because he is allin? or you burn the cards once the deal is over?
Post by: Nick C on December 29, 2019, 10:03:50 PM
TDA Rule #30. A player must be at their seat when the hand is dealt. If they are not at their seat their hand is dead.
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It is a chilly night in Maine on September 20th. The sky is clear, a few early leaves are floating down from the trees. The stars are out, and shivering with thoughts about autumn. I cannot sleep, the boards of the lean-to shelter seem to toss and turn as much as I do. I have hiked 2,166 miles along the Appalachian Trail over mountains, through farms, across rivers, over rocks, over roots, and under trees from Georgia all the way up to the heart of Maine. I have pressed on through snow, mud, rain, hail, thunder, bears, moose droppings, hunger, blisters, heat, and cold. Now there are only ten miles left between me and Mount Katahdin. One more day of hiking, one more mountain to climb, and I can say I hiked the entire Appalachian Trail. I had waited, working and walked for six months to taste the air at the top of that mountain. I was too full of life, too full of hope and energy. It was as if the very air was made of sugar or caffeine. It kept me up all night. I could only pretend to sleep, and even then all my brief and unfinished dreams were about what was to come. I tossed and turned, and bubbled over so much that I couldn’t even wait until daylight before I packed everything up and started my ascent. I was up and moving before 4am. It was right there! The last mountain! How could I fall asleep, the anticipation of completing the whole Appalachian Trail was too much to bear. But that one night, that one waiting evening, I was more alive than I had been in a long time. It remains more vibrant in my memory than the next day when I summited the mountain and tasted that air.
It is all too easy for us to forget how great waiting can be, how alive it can make us. You see, as paradoxical as it sounds, waiting is a good thing, and it does not disappoint. We lose something when we no longer wait like a child waits for presents on Christmas morning. We lose something when we do our best to avoid waiting. When waiting becomes time to fill with other things, like candy crush or Instagram, or twiddling our thumbs, we lose something. Because if we truly wait, there is a bubbling-up. True waiting is an event where God makes us like we are somehow more alive, more ourselves.
If we were truly waiting for Christ, we would all feel that same bubbling up every Sunday morning. Every Sunday would be as exciting as that last mountain on the Appalachian Trail. Every Sunday we would lose sleep like there were Christmas presents just waiting for us under the tree begging to be opened. Why, we would come bounding down the aisle when it is time for communion. Look! Christ is here! I cannot wait to taste and see! We would tug at our parents sleeve on our way up to our first communion: “Come ON daddy! Come on Mommy! Christ is coming and he’s right up there broken for us! LET’S GO!”
That is why we hope and wait in Advent. Because hope does not disappoint. God shows up where God promises to show up. In the last place we would expect to find God- in our very waiting, suffering and hoping itself! For we have peace with God through our Lord Jesus Christ, and in our waiting, God’s love has been poured into our hearts through the Holy Spirit that has been given to us. For, as Paul says, while we were still weak, at the right time Christ died for the ungodly. While we were still waiting, Christ died for those who are fed up with waiting. Because what is coming is life, and in waiting we get a foretaste of that life. In waiting, we bubble over. We discover that a little of that life at the other end is already warming in our mugs. There is nothing we can do but wait for it. God does all the rest.
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Planned HVAC maintenance or HVAC service is essential to the proper functioning of air conditioning and heating equipment. If preventive HVAC maintenance is not performed regularly or if it is done haphazardly, the equipment will require extensive and costly repairs at a later date that is sooner than it should be. This is not just a case of "pay me now or pay me later." It is a case of "pay me now or pay me considerably more, later," and lose reliability while paying higher repair and energy costs in the process.
Planned maintenance programs for air conditioning and heating equipment include regular inspection throughout the year. During these inspections, proper operation of the equipment is checked and verified. All mechanical equipment is designed to operate within certain limits. Air conditioning, boilers and furnace maintenance is no exception, and if not properly maintained, the equipment will exceed its design limitations with the result being equipment failure. Your best insurance against HVAC failure and cost containment is equipment planned HVAC maintenance.
Why do you need a planned HVAC maintenance agreement?
Your HVAC equipment is one of the most expensive and important systems in yourhome. Extreme temperature swings can strain this equipment and the best way to protect it is to perform regular maintenance. In fact, it can be mandatory for your manufacturer warranty to be valid. Becoming a maintenance member with us will help ensure safety, maximum efficiency, extend equipment lifespan, and help protect your investment and yourself from breakdowns.
With a Rogers & Sons HVAC maintenance agreement, you'll get...:
Increased energy efficiency
Extended equipment life Minimized costly repairs
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No need to call around
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Access to emergency services
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In addition, your HVAC system will be given regular treatment and maintenance designed to catch common issues in your system, and fix them before they become a bigger issue. We'll give your system a 30-point HVAC maintenance inspection, including a system cleaning, filter and belt replacement, electrical testing, and a comprehensive safety inspection.
Our Planned HVAC Maintenance program includes a detailed report, following an in-depth checklist, that is filled out by the technician at the time of service. With this information we are able to track and trend the performance of your equipment and note any discrepancies that can be brought to your attention and as a team we can develop either a repair or replacement recommendation.
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Won’t fans be thrilled when the wait is over and the speculation finally ceases? The latest development in the "will it or won’t it return" drama unfolds with not-so-positive news.
According to a source "close to Fox Television" (Fox produces the show for UPN), "There is a whole different attitude at UPN right now, and it’s not the same attitude that first brought Buffy to the network in the first place."
That same source claims that Les Moonves, president of UPN parent CBS, is only interested in ratings, ratings, ratings and bringing Buffy back for an eighth season looks unlikely.
"It is believed around here that if Moonves had been running UPN two years ago, Buffy never would’ve been there in the first place," the source continued.
Of course, no official word has been spoken on the subject, so the waiting game continues.
Buffy Season 8 Update
28 September 2004 18:35, by simona
Ci di sarà dell'un ritorno di cesalpina del serie di nell'ottava?
> Buffy Season 8 Update
15 October 2004 00:57, by Lynn
well my opion is i think buffy should come back i don’t see how the ratings are not high. i know at least 100 people that watch buffy in my town and that is just my little town.can you imagine all over the united states. Buffy is like my hero i love watching the show and when it went off the air i was devistated. i am still devistated. i have never been like this over a show,but it’s like it was real all but the vampire stuff. i can relate to alot of stuff that all the caricters were feeling exspecialy buffy and i think that is why i got so attached to the show. and i want more. i think it should come back even if upn don’t bring it back why can’t it come back on another channel. i just want the show back and hope and pray that it comes back. sincerly, LYNN
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A crew of 20-somethings who all learned to sail on Mt. Desert Island and raced on the high school sailing team beat out 13 other crews from across the country to win the IOD Class North American Championships. The regatta, which took place off MDI last September, featured 14 teams from San Francisco, Annapolis, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, Long Island Sound, New York City, Marblehead, and Northeast Harbor.
The red-hot team went on to compete at the World Championship of the International One Design Class in Fishers Island, NY, where they finished fourth out of 16 boats, just one point out of third place, and were awarded the Priscilla Kehm trophy for outstanding performance by a crew.
Lucas Ingebritson, Connor Ratcliff, Alec Fischella, Sean Beaulieu, and Sofie Dowling at the IOD North Americans. Photo courtesy Glenn Squires Skipper Sofie Dowling, 20, raced with close friends Connor Ratcliff (22), Lucas Ingebritson (21), Alec Fisichella (21), Sean Beaulieu (26), and Kevin Elk (25) who filled in for Beaulieu during some of the MDI races. Four members of the team have parents who work in the boat business. Wythe Ingebritson is a broker with Hinckley; Will Ratcliff works at the John Williams Co.; Jim Elk runs Elk Spars; and Jean Beaulieu heads up Classic Boat Shop.
At the North Americans, Dowling and her crew, who learned to sail at the MDI Community Sailing Center in Southwest Harbor, “absolutely crushed the competition,” according to the sailing center’s director Glenn Squires, with four firsts and three seconds during the three days of racing. “They were by far the youngest team on the water,” Squires said. “The competition could be their parents or even their grandparents.” You can find a slide show of images from those races here: www.maineboats.com.
At the worlds, the team was moving up in the standings over the several-day event, but racing ended early due to high winds. According to one report, Dowling was one of the first female skippers ever in the IOD Worlds, as well as the youngest skipper. Dowling noted the wins were a team effort. While she handles the helm, Fischella handles tactics, and Ratcliff calls starts, and they all hike and trim sails. “We have such an understanding of mutual respect and there is always a conversation,” she said. “And at the end of the day we are always still friends.”
“Sailing in her first IOD World Championship, Northeast Harbor’s Sofie Dowling (who will turn 21 in a few weeks) and her young team… were a force to be reckoned with,” said Greg Mancusi-Ungaro, a member of the IOD executive race committee. “They gave all the past world champions everything they could handle every time they sailed…. All week long they made great tactical decisions and handled their boat expertly. They seemed to get better and better as the regatta wore on. Not only were they fast—scary fast—but they were fun. It was obvious to all that they were having a wonderful time.”
The MDI sailors will get their names engraved on the Kehm trophy as a permanent reminder of the team from Maine. “And we feel sure that these talented young sailors will be back in future years to find their place on the victory podium,” Mancusi-Ungaro said.
So, one more time, let’s hear it for the kids!
A mesh oyster bag made from wood. Photo courtesy Ocean Farms Supply
Cutting out the plastic
Rather than relying solely on plastic equipment, shellfish and seaweed growers are finding alternatives, and a lot of this work is happening in Maine, according to a report in the online Hakai newsletter.
The folks at Harraseeket’s Maine Ocean Farms have launched a new business called Ocean Farms Supply that is marketing non-plastic gear, including the mesh bags commonly used by fish farmers. Ocean Farms owner Erin Adams and her business partner Eric Oransky have been using bags woven out of string made with 100 percent European beechwood to hold their farm-raised oysters.
The company uses roughly 1,200 of these bags every season, and also sells the material to oyster, clam, and mussel growers, and wholesale distributors as far away as Mexico, California, and Florida.
Already these bags have replaced the use of 22 kilometers of polypropylene mesh, Hakai reported.
Aquaculture both contributes to and is potentially harmed by ocean plastics, Hakai noted. Much of the industry’s gear, from ropes to cages to flotation devices, is made of plastic. Over time, that plastic degrades, generating millimeter-sized particles that can be ingested by shellfish and finfish.
Another Maine oyster farmer, Abby Barrows of Long Cove Sea Farm on Deer Isle, who is also a plastics researcher, is developing experimental oyster bags made of cork and cedar trees, with fine stainless-steel or aluminum mesh on their tops and bottoms. She’s also developing ropes made from Manila hemp.
She has been running side-by-side experiments to compare how well baby oysters develop in wood and metal cages versus plastic ones in collaboration with scientists in Nova Scotia, who will measure the oysters’ microplastic content.
In addition, the Maine start-up Viable Gear, run by Katie Weiler, is tackling the mussel socks used to grow baby mussels. Weiler prototyped kelp-based seeding twine to replace the nylon that kelp growers currently use. She is also working on bait bags for the lobster and crab industries and is interested in kelp-based cling wrap to replace the plastic used to wrap boats in the winter.
MITA acquires a shoreside base
The Maine Island Trail Association has acquired property in Freeport that will be used to house the organization’s fleet of workboats in the offseason. The nonprofit currently operates eight aluminum workboats that facilitate stewardship efforts on more than 250 island and mainland sites along the Maine coast. Last season, MITA volunteers made over 1,600 island visits for stewardship work and removed approximately 12.6 tons of debris across a cumulative 6,700 hours of service.
“Having a dedicated facility for our fleet is a real milestone for MITA,” said Executive Director Doug Welch. “We have relied on a combination of member generosity and leased space for our boat storage needs in the past, however there were never any guarantees from year to year. In addition to providing off season storage for the boats, this facility will also serve as a true headquarters for MITA’s stewardship efforts.”
Shark expert alert
In the wake of 2020’s fatal shark attack off Bailey Island and increased sightings along the coast of great whites, the Maine Department of Marine Resources has hired its first-ever researcher dedicated to studying the apex predator. His job, according to a report in the Portland Press Herald, is to figure out how and where sharks spend their time in the Gulf of Maine. Much of his work involves running the state’s shark monitoring program. The state now has about 30 acoustic receivers in Southern Maine that collect data when sharks with monitoring tags swim within a couple hundred yards of them. Another pair of receivers send out real-time shark detections off Popham Beach and in Saco Bay, giving life guards and public safety officials a chance to know immediately if a great white—if it is tagged—is nearby.
After a four-decade hiatus, Boothbay Harbor hosted a tuna fishing contest last September 4-8 featuring 60 contestants, each of whom paid a $750 entry fee. The event, which benefited Boothbay’s Fishermen’s Memorial, included a $30,000 cash prize for the heaviest tuna, with smaller cash prizes for the next four biggest catches.
The brainchild of Jax van der Veen, who manages Carousel Marina which was recently bought by the van der Veen family, the tuna contest was run by a new non-profit: the Boothbay Harbor Tuna Challenge. Fishermen were restricted to fishing in waters in Zone 1A which runs from the Massachusetts to the Canadian border.
First prize, according to the Wiscasset Newspaper’s web news, went to Robert Fifield who docked his Wasabi at Carousel Marina in the evening of the contest’s last day with a behemoth 725-pound tuna—that’s a lot of tuna fish sandwiches! Second place went to Joe Pinkham of Five Islands with a 712.5-pound tuna. Steve Morse of Harpswell caught the third heaviest fish at 669 pounds aboard his Reel Estates. The fourth heaviest catch, 644.5 pounds, was recorded aboard the Ivy Jean. Brent Olsen of South Bristol caught the fifth biggest fish, a 641-pounder aboard the True North. After catches were weighed, captains sold them to fish buyers from Massachusetts and Rhode Island. In all, 44 tuna were landed.
“We’re very happy with the tournament and all the community support. We’re also looking forward to next year’s tournament,” Jax van der Veen told the Wiscasset Newspaper.
Photo by Kat Stuart
The owner of the historic passenger schooner Victory Chimes has called it quits for the iconic green-hulled, three-masted vessel.
“After long and careful consideration, we have come to the difficult decision that 2022 will be Victory Chimes’ last sailing season,” Sam Sikkema, captain of the 128-foot wooden schooner, said in a news release. “Upcoming Coast Guard compliance, cost and availability of materials for upcoming maintenance, the lack of ability to haul the ship in Maine, and the losses of the 2020 season have all become a hill too big to climb.”
Sikkema said he is working to find a new home for the vessel.
Built in 1900 in Delaware, the vessel, which was originally called the Edwin and Maud, carried cargo around the Chesapeake Bay until 1946 when it was converted to carry people. Renamed Victory Chimes, the schooner began working as a passenger windjammer in Maine in 1954. In the early 1980s, she was sold to an owner in the Great Lakes, and later bought by the owner of Domino’s Pizza, renamed Domino Effect, and extensively rebuilt at Samples Shipyard in Boothbay. The Chimes returned to Maine in 1990, and Sikkema bought the vessel in 2018. Featured on Maine’s 2003 commemorative quarter, the Victory Chimes is the largest member of Maine’s windjammer fleet.
Hybrid cruising
We’ve been seeing quite a bit of news about new electric-powered recreational vessels. Now comes a hybrid cruise ship.
Folks in several Maine ports were able to get a glimpse of the 459-foot Hurtigruten expedition ship Roald Amundsen, the world’s first hybrid cruise ship, as it cruised down the coast on a 9-day trip from Halifax to Boston in mid-September. It visited Eastport, Bar Harbor, Castine, and Rockland. The 530-passenger Norwegian vessel is powered by low-sulfur diesel fuel and two massive battery packs that boost power thus reducing fuel consumption. The vessel also can go a short distance on battery power alone, according to the company. The hybrid technology reduces fuel consumption and C02 emissions by 20 percent, according to Hurtigruten Expeditions. Launched in 2018, the Norwegian vessel began expedition cruises in 2019. The ship, which was built to undertake polar voyages, is named for the Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen, who led the first expedition to reach the South Pole in 1911.
Hybrid technology has started to take hold for ferries, as well as cruise ships. The Casco Bay Lines in Portland has commissioned a hybrid-electric ferry that is under construction in Rhode Island and expected to be in service in 2024.
The vessel will have the ability to operate in diesel-electric, zero-emissions, fully battery-powered modes, or a combination of those options. Designed to hold up to 599 passengers and 15 vehicles, it will replace an existing diesel-powered ferry, resulting in a reduction of approximately 800 tons of carbon dioxide each year, according to the ferry line. Casco Bay Lines received $3.6 million in federal grants for the hybrid propulsion system from the Department of Transportation’s Federal Transit Administration Passenger Ferry Grant program.
A very long detour
Remember the old “Bert and I” comedy skit about getting directions in Maine, the one where you can’t get there from here? Folks driving through the Northern Maine town of Jackman last summer found out just how true that can be when traffic on route 6/15 in Jackman was sent on a 143-mile detour for two days after a section of the road was washed out in a heavy rain, according to a story in the Bangor Daily News.
Locals quickly figured out a much shorter detour that included driving on soggy dirt roads. But visitors and truckers faced delays as they diverted down Route 201 to Bingham and then followed Route 16 to Abbot to reconnect to Route 6. Some changed plans altogether, like a family that opted to go to the Skowhegan State Fair instead of visiting Greenville, the newspaper reported.
Maine stone headed to NY
Freshwater Stone in Orland, Maine, has taken on a monumental project this year: the restoration of Fort Hood, the base upon which the Statue of Liberty stands.
The job involves replacing 23 stone walls that run around the Statue of Liberty. The 11-pointed, star-shaped base, originally used as a military fort, will require more than 1,000 pieces of granite from Freshwater’s quarry at Mosquito Mountain in Maine, totaling about a quarter-million pounds of cut stone.
Historical renovation projects require blending the old with the new as seamlessly as possible. To achieve this result, edges of the fresh-cut stone are being distressed with a torch and hammer to give them an authentic, antiqued look.
“The less you can tell that restoration has occurred,” John Horton, Freshwater’s architectural stone manager, “the better the restoration work that was done.”
Freshwater Stone sourced, cut, and prepped the 250,000 pounds of granite from their Frankfort quarry. Sadly, the stone sloops that once carried Maine granite to Boston and beyond no longer exist (profiled on page 44). Instead, Freshwater transported its granite to New York in tractor trailer trucks.
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Young Syrian students putting their savings in a donation box in their classroom. Syrians in Turkey are concerned about well-being of their relatives and friends in Aleppo.
by Compiled from Wire Services Dec 15, 2016 12:00 am
Amid reports of the massacre of civilians by forces loyal to Bashar Assad, Syrians who took shelter in Turkey are expressing their emotions for those unable to flee the city to safer areas. A few brave Syrian children living in southern Turkey have decided to the donate what little money they have to the displaced civilians of Aleppo facing starvation
As the world turns a blind eye to the crisis unfolding in Aleppo, where civilians face massacre by forces loyal to Bashar Assad, Syrian refugees who took shelter in Turkey during the civil war are moving to help their country's own with the little they have.
Turkey is at the forefront of efforts for the safe evacuation of civilians from Aleppo and partly succeeded in providing it after a deal with Russia although the Iran-backed militia has hindered the process.
The country, which hosts nearly 3 million refugees from the war-torn lands of Syria, also mobilized for nationwide aid campaigns.
One such aid campaign in southern Turkey had some unlikely donors: Syrian children. Young students at a school run by a charity in the province of Kahramanmaraş, volunteered to donate the little money they had for an aid campaign for Aleppo's displaced civilians.
Saving a few Turkish liras their families gave them to buy food, the boys and girls who were forced to leave their homeland with their parents and relatives donated it to those less lucky than them.
Young Hassan Ukla is one of them. Speaking as he slips a few coins into a donation box in his classroom, he said he decided to donate when he saw photos of people dying in Aleppo.
His family also donated with what they have, from clothes to food.
"People there are hungry. We ask people to help them. Babies, mothers and fathers die. (Killers) have no mercy," the boy told local reporters.
Ibrahim Najjar echoes him and said they decided to donate "all they have" for the people in Syria.
"There is a big war in Syria. People are dying. They have no food and nowhere to go," he says.
Abdallah Ijle, another young boy, said he lost almost all his relatives, "from his cousins to father" in Syria.
"Our families give us money to buy simit (a popular Turkish bagel) but we give them to help Syrians. We do what we can for them. We watch on the news and see people dying there every day," he said.
Elsewhere in Turkey, Syrian refugees who hail from Aleppo anxiously await the safe evacuation of civilians from the city. Gathered in front of TVs or scrolling down the news feeds on social media websites, they hope to get a glimpse of the situation on the ground.
The Beydağı refugee camp in the province of Malatya hosts more than 10,000 refugees who managed to make it into Turkey a few years ago when the conflict aggravated.
Muhammad Gumaa arrived about one and a half years ago with his wife and four children but his parents are still in Aleppo.
"Most of my relatives in Aleppo died. I am able to contact my parents by the phone every day but things get worse," he said, adding that a humanitarian crisis is happening in Aleppo.
"We are worried. Aleppo is destroyed. There is no life, no peace. We only hope the war will end," he told reporters, aspiring to return home once the conflict is over.
Foreign assistance to regime forces and lack of initiatives to end the conflict may dash the hopes of Gumaa, who keeps his spirits high after learning a fragile ceasefire was achieved in eastern Aleppo.
Unfortunately, the ceasefire more or less collapsed as fighter jets resumed lethal air raids later on Wednesday, dealing a blow to plans to evacuate tens of thousands of civilians out of harm's way.
Muhammad Harouf, another Aleppo local who took shelter in Turkey about four years ago, has not heard from his relatives in the city for two years. He said he prays for his two uncles every day.
"Our heart is with Aleppo. We watch the news, go online every day to hear some good news from the city," he said.
In Adana, a southern city near the border, a group of refugees gathered for a rally to denounce the attacks on civilians and pray for them.
In statements in Turkish, Arabic and English, refugees sought to raise awareness to the Aleppo drama, carrying photos of massacres in the Syrian city.
"The international community, Arab states are silent in the face of massacres. We don't want the world to remain silent. Allah will not abandon Aleppo," Rami Suhta, a refugee who read the press statement of the demonstrators, said at the rally.
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Sunday, June 20, was the first day of summer, and we are officially using our new summer schedule. We are re-posting it this week as there have been a few tweaks.
BODY SCULPT is now on Tuesdays at 8:45AM and has switched to an In-Studio/Zoom class instead of a In-studio/FB Live video. All of the past Body Sculpt videos will remain available within our private Facebook group, but we encourage you to make time to be in class.
In-studio classes have benefits beyond Zoom
like the energy shared between students,
the teacher’s ability to correct form, and
the community enjoyed both before and after class.
For that reason, we will soon begin this transition with our personal training small groups.
PILATES is also now an In-Studio/Zoom class. Join Donny Lindell on Saturday’s at 9:30AM to receive individualized support in a practice that builds core and body strength and tone as well as improving balance and stability. Even if you’ve never thought of doing Pilates before, why not participate this coming Saturday? Or in any class for that matter! Variety is the spice of life!!
Our MONTH OF MEDITATION continues with yoga instructor Barbara Sorenson who leads students through exercises to help replace feelings of anxiety and turmoil with thoughts of serenity and peace through breath work and meditation. Class will meet on Wednesday at 4:30PM.
We are looking forward to a great summer…and to seeing you in the studio!
No Classes Today, November 26
The Gift that Keeps Giving
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As in most fields, customers you’re already in contact with, have seen what you can do and are happy with your product or service; are more likely to become customers again. That said, just because you’ve worked well together in the past doesn’t make their ongoing business a sure thing.
In relation to the growth and success of my remote freelance business, retaining customers has been super important. Long-term working relationships are something I actively pursue and have become the basis of my monthly income.
If you’re a serious freelancer, contractor or consultant, you should work hard on client retention. Here are a few ideas how:
Connect with your clients
In my development business, I’ve worked with lots of different types of client. While you’ll not always find common ground with everyone (as is life), it generally makes working together better if you can find some kind of level.
Ask questions now and again. “How’s the weather where you are?, “How’re the kids?”. Typing those sort of things out feels cheesy, but trust me; it builds rapport, makes your work interaction easier and can form the basis of a lasting partnership.
I’ve seen work from home freelancers struggle with the idea of connecting with their remote colleagues and overseas clients. Sure, we don’t have that everyday face-to-face interaction; but it doesn’t start and end in the office. Make use of tools like Slack for chat, Skype and Google Hangouts for video calling and once in a while, get together for a coffee.
People hire people. Build a relationship, talk about more than work. Be personable, not robotic. Above all, be sincere.
Cut a deal (sometimes)
I’m not a big believer in lowering my rates to get work. Usually, I think that if someone really wants to hire you, they will pay the going rate. At the same time, there are a couple of circumstances where you could think about cutting a deal with regular clients.
Imagine this scenario. An agency client has previously worked with you on a successful project. They have a ton of overflow work coming up in the months ahead and don’t have the capacity to fill it. They look to you as someone who could fill the void but want to negotiate on your usual rate. Say your usual day rate is £300, but the client has 3 months worth of work, they could offer you £250 per day. While this is lower than your regular price, you gain security for a longer period. This can be highly calming for a freelancer.
Retainers would be another angle where I’d potentially cut a deal. X amount of guaranteed monthly income in exchange for Y amount of set-aside hours/days work within that month. These deals can work in your favour as a freelancer. Along with the positive of regular payments, hours unused by the client usually don’t roll over into the next month. This could leave additional time to work on marketing or personal projects while still bringing home a paycheck.
Willingness to be flexible on price (within reason) can lead to longer deals.
Prove your worth
Once you take on a project, it’s time to prove your worth. Be capable and do a solid job. Add value to your clients’ business. You’d think this goes without saying, but I’ve heard some horror stories on past hires from the people I’ve dealt with.
In my experience, people can already be a little wary of hiring freelancers. Especially if you prefer to work remotely or don’t have the largest portfolio. Don’t give them a reason to doubt your integrity. Use your skills to do the best job possible.
The feedback I get is; a good freelancer who is reliable, personable and adds value to their client’s business is worth their weight in gold. Be that person for your clients.
My career as a freelance WordPress developer took off on the basis of this value. Starting out, I impressed an agency with a one-off theme build. The next time the agency had a similar project, they passed it on to me again. This eventually grew to ongoing monthly work and I became the client’s go-to hire for WordPress jobs.
Be realistic with deadlines
The nature of freelancers is to try and take on as much work as possible. The reasons being, freelance feast and famine is a common occurrence and we simply like to please the people we work with. The fear of turning down work is one you should try to overcome if you want to keep your client relationships strong.
A big part of being a freelancer is managing the expectations of multiple clients. It’s important to not overstretch yourself with deadlines by taking on more than you can handle at any one time. This can cause disappointment if you’re unable to stick to agreed timescales; an unreliable freelancer won’t earn repeat business.
If you think a job will take a week longer than the brief suggests, be sure to communicate this. Be realistic with all time estimates.
If you’re looking to improve your client retention, show willing to go the extra mile. There are a few ways you can do this ranging from small touches to really pulling out all the stops.
Ask for feedback on any work you’ve done. Check that your client is happy with what you have produced for them. Send thank you emails when they send a payment on time. Take the time to have regular phone calls.
There could be occasions when the client has a rush job – consider taking it if you have the capacity and can agree on suitable compensation. There will be instances when emergencies surface; your client base will greatly appreciate you jumping to their aid.
If you take care of people, you build their trust. And, in my experience of freelancer-client relationships, they normally take care of you back.
The author
This article was written by Tom Hirst. A long-time remote working freelance web developer and educator who loves helping others get ahead through his experiences.
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INDIANAPOLIS (AP) Tyler Reddick this month already grabbed his first Cup career victory, qualified for NASCAR's playoffs and signed a big contract with a new team.
Now he's got a victory at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Reddick closed the best month of his career with an overtime win Sunday on the road course at Indy to give him two victories in the last five Cup races.
"So, I'm not going to lie, I watched a lot of racing at this venue when I was a kid growing up," Reddick said. "A lot of incredible drivers have won at this racetrack and it's really cool to be part of the drivers who have won here and I'm really happy about it."
Reddick broke through for his first career victory on July 3 at Road America in Wisconsin, then announced nine days later he was leaving Richard Childress Racing in 2024 to drive for 23XI, the team owned by Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan.
Win No. 2 seemed to be easily within reach as Reddick was comfortably out front for 15 late laps when debris from Christopher Bell's car brought out the fourth caution of the race with only six to go.
It set up a restart with three laps remaining and Reddick lined up alongside road course ace Chase Elliott, who briefly got past Reddick for the lead until he was spun for another caution that sent the race into overtime.
Reddick on the next restart had to hold off defending race winner AJ Allmendinger, who also won Saturday in the Xfinity Series. But Allmendinger was physically exhausted and struggling because his cooling device had not worked the entire race, and he hardly challenged Reddick at all.
Allmendinger collapsed when he climbed from his car. His wife and team personnel were seen draping his head in wet towels and dumping water over him before Allmendinger was taken to the care center.
So it was Ross Chastain who made Reddick claw his way to the Yard of Bricks.
Chastain missed the first turn completely and used the access road to return to the racing course ahead of Reddick and the apparent new leader. Reddick chased him for an entire lap around the 2.439-mile course and finally reclaimed the lead in time to lead the entire final lap.
"I couldn't believe he got ahead of me," Reddick said. "I was kind of waiting to see if he was going to have a penalty because I didn't want to move him out of the way and make his race worse than what it was. But hey, we made it work. Hats off to Ross for trying to do that, but really glad it didn't end up working out because I'd have been pretty (angry)."
NASCAR after the race penalized Chastain for using the access road, which dropped him to 27th.
"I thought we were four-wide and couldn't go any farther right," said Chastain, "and decided to take the NASCAR access lane out there."
Reddick's win made him the first RCR driver since Kevin Harvick in 2013 to win multiple races in a season, and multiple victories for RCR in a season for the first time since 2017.
It was RCR's fourth win at Indianapolis as Reddick joined Dale Earnhardt, Kevin Harvick and Paul Menard as Indy winners for Richard Childress. The previous three wins were on the Brickyard's oval.
But Childress still seemed chapped by Reddick's early decision to leave in 18 months, specifically citing his cordial split with Harvick at the end of the 2013 season.
"Well, Kevin and I talked through his whole deal and we made a joint announcement. He won four races that year, and we almost won the championship," Childress said. "This one didn't happen like that."
But the owner said he'd still celebrate with Reddick and his sponsors, and he later was alongside Reddick for the customary celebration of kissing the yard of bricks.
"I'll congratulate him. I'll congratulate the whole team," Childress said. "The whole team did a great job. I'll congratulate our sponsors."
Austin Cindric, who drives for track owner Roger Penske, finished second in a Ford and was followed by fellow rookie Harrison Burton, who was a career-best third for Wood Brothers Racing. The No. 21 Ford that Burton drives is an offshoot of Team Penske.
Todd Gilliland was next in fourth for his career-best finish, and the rookie led his first career Cup laps when he was out front for four laps in the final stage.
Bubba Wallace in a Toyota for 23XI was fifth and followed by Joey Logano of Penske and finally Allmendinger, who dropped to seventh on the overtime restart. Michael McDowell was eighth and followed by Cole Custer of Stewart-Haas Racing and Chris Buescher of RFK Racing as Ford drivers took seven of the top-10 spots in a race won by a Chevy.
Chevrolet has now won 10 straight Cup races on road courses win since the manufacturer's 2021 milestone 800th win at Circuit of The Americas.
Kyle Larson had a lousy 30th birthday with a long Sunday at Indianapolis that ended with a frightening crash in which the brakes on his Chevrolet appeared to fail.
The reigning NASCAR champion was already five laps down because of an early flat tire. His day ended early when Larson seemed to have no ability to slow his car as he sailed into a turn and directly into the side of Ty Dillon's car at full speed.
The hit destroyed Dillon's car. Once Larson was out of his own car, he jogged over to Dillon to check on him.
"All I saw was a blue flash," Dillon said. "That's the hardest I've ever been hit."
Larson declined comment as he exited the infield care center.
NASCAR races Sunday at Michigan International Speedway, the opener for the final four-week stretch to finalize the playoff field. Ryan Blaney is the defending race winner.
---
Updated July 31, 2022
© 2022 by STATS PERFORM.
Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of STATS PERFORM is strictly prohibited.
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John White’s family has been working its 57—acre oceanfront farm in Sagaponack since 1695, the last holdouts against a tide of Wall Streeter mansions. But in an effort to save his children's inheritance—by selling 10 of those acres to a Houston oil mogul—White may have lost it all.
Photography by John Huba
June 27, 2011
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To revist this article, visit My Profile, then View saved stories.
SOW LONG? The White family, clockwise from bottom left: patriarch John C. White, Jeffery, Johnnie, Thomas, and Barbara, on the front porch of the main house on their potato farm, in Sagaponack, New York.
On a field by the ocean, in the heart of the Hamptons, a lone farmer tends his rows.
The village is Sagaponack, not long ago ranked America’s richest real estate. To the east is singer Billy Joel’s dune-front house, put up for sale after the end of his last marriage. Across the lane, hedge funder David Tepper is about to start tearing down the mansion on the 6.5-acre property he recently bought for $43.5 million, while just beyond, the towering chimneys of billionaire industrialist Ira Rennert’s 100,000-square-foot compound shimmer in the sea-spray mist. To the west, across Sagg Main Street and Sagg Pond, are the shingled mansions of several Goldman Sachs partners—On Goldman Pond, as the locals put it. Amid this ostentation is the 57-acre potato field of John C. White, whose family has owned it, and continuously farmed it, since 1695. White’s homelot, as he calls it, is not only the oldest family-owned oceanfront farm field in the Hamptons, it’s also the last. But it may not be John White’s much longer, if one of Houston’s wealthiest oil-and-gas men has his way.
One summer long ago, Anthony and Cynthia Petrello rented one of the little wood-shingled cottages tucked against the dune at the ocean side of the Whites’ farm—all visible from Sagg Main as it curves to the beach. The Whites had rented out these cottages—camps, as they call them, that had originally housed migrant workers—for years. To his renters, John White made no secret of his fear that on his death his four grown children might have to sell the farm to pay estate taxes, so fast were land prices climbing. Maybe if he sold a corner of the field, he’d have the cash to keep the rest intact. Anthony Petrello thought he could help. He would buy that corner and build his dream house.
A decade of bitter litigation later, Petrello, president and C.O.O. of Nabors Industries, the biggest land-based oil-drilling company in the world, seems poised to acquire nearly the whole 57 acres. An innocuous-seeming clause in the original contract gives him “right of first refusal,” he argues, to buy the open field, along with the Whites’ two-story 19th-century farmhouse, at the corner of Sagg Main and Bridge Lane. John White, 89, feels fooled and betrayed. Petrello, 56, feels the family hornswoggled him at every turn. As they’ve battled, the stakes have risen: not long ago, an oceanfront plot about the size of John White’s farm, just up the beach, sold to mutual-fund billionaire Ron Baron for $103 million.
All that’s happened to the Hamptons lies in this archetypal tale: the coming of money, the breaking up of farms and the building of McMansions, the end of community, the fraying of trust.
Once upon a time, a scattering of potato farmers managed this patchwork of fields, with some of the most fertile soil in the world, as a hamlet with just one store. Hardly anyone lived here who wasn’t a farmer. Then the writers found it—Peter Matthiessen in the mid-50s, later James Jones and Truman Capote, Kurt Vonnegut and Irwin Shaw and Willie Morris. They moved into the old farmhouses and drank through winters as desolate as North Dakota’s. Southampton had the old money, East Hampton the new; this humble in-between place felt like the farmers’. But the writers—and artists, among them Bob Dash and Sheridan Lord—were followed, as always, by the rich in search of the next great place, and suddenly, in the mid-90s, Sagaponack was it. Lloyd Blankfein, then an executive at Goldman Sachs but not yet its chairman, was an early Wall Street arrival. Goldman’s then head of investment banking, Bob Hurst, was another, as was its current number two, Gary Cohn. The Wall Streeters weren’t content to live in old farmhouses. They wanted open land on which to build their big, and bigger, houses. Rennert’s colonization of an entire farm field upped the stakes in l997. By then, Anthony Petrello had put down his marker in the southwest corner of the White family farm, and a tragic story had begun to unfold.
On a hook by the back door of John White’s house hangs his jacket from the Bridgehampton volunteer fire department. “Red” White, as John is known, was a volunteer for more than 50 years. Now shrunken with age and stooped by a lifetime of farming potatoes, White tends to doze at the kitchen table. He has “diminished capacity,” and the details of the lawsuit get jumbled. “I’ve never signed anything giving anyone right of first refusal,” he says, perking up at one point.
Thomas, 49, one of his four grown children, sighs. “Yes, you did, Dad.”
When John White was a boy, he farmed this field with horses, as his Scottish ancestors had done. At 17, in the hurricane of 1938, he rescued his father, hanging on for dear life to the little bridge on Bridge Lane. He served in World War II but never left the farm again. His future wife was from New Jersey; he met her when she came to visit “kinfolk up the road.” When Betty died, last winter, at the age of 87, some 350 neighbors attended the service at the Presbyterian church originally presided over by family forebear Ebenezer White in 1695.
Tony Petrello found his way to the farm in the summer of 1992 through his best friend, Mike Burrows. The two had worked as up-and-coming lawyers at Baker & McKenzie in New York. Burrows, who’d rented one of the cottages since the 1970s, tipped off Petrello that the camp next to his had come free. “The model”—so called because it had been built on the side of Route 27 as a model-house display in the early 1960s before John White bought it and hauled it out to the dune—was just 650 square feet, but no one could fail to be charmed by its new location.
Petrello had grown up in a lower-middle-class Italian neighborhood of Newark, New Jersey, the grandson of immigrants. Gifted in math, he won a full scholarship to Yale and went on to Harvard Law School. At 31 he was named managing partner of Baker & McKenzie’s New York office. At 37 he accepted an offer from one of his clients to be day-to-day head of Nabors Industries. It was a ticket to wealth—considerable wealth—but it did mean living in Houston. For Tony and his Connecticut-born wife, Cindy, a former soap-opera actress and TWA flight attendant, renting “the model” was a way to escape the Houston heat and see their families back East.
The Petrellos joined a casual fraternity of White-farm cottage dwellers. All were quite successful, but life at the beach was low-key: cocktails and moonlit barbecues. “It was like the beach version of how I grew up,” recalls Petrello, “where everyone knew each other, you hung out on your stoop … ” When word went around in the summer of 1995 that Tony and Cindy had bought the southwest corner of the field, including one of the cottages, the fraternity was delighted, especially Mike Burrows.
White was no hayseed. For years, he’d weighed various plans to subdivide the field. But Petrello was no country lawyer. By the time they met on the porch of “the model” one August day in 1995, they’d haggled quite a bit to reach a deal. Petrello would commit to buying roughly 11 acres for $2 million, a not unreasonable price, given that the whole field had just been appraised for $6 million. But Petrello would pay more than that. The field first needed to be subdivided; he would front those costs. Only when the subdivision was done would the deal actually close.
A festive air suffused the porch meeting as Tony and Cindy Petrello, along with John White and his son Jeffery, then in his late 30s, reviewed the memo of sale Petrello had drawn up, the field unfurling majestically from where they sat. The only sensitive point was the size of the house the Petrellos would build. John White wanted to be sure they wouldn’t erect one of those “monstrosities” that had begun to pop up all over. Cindy told White that she and her husband would live happily in a house the size of “the model” if they could own on the beach instead of renting. But Petrello’s lawyer, David Berg, now says, “It is just silly for anyone to say that Cindy was committing to a house the size of the model.” It was a passing remark, not to be taken seriously.
The Petrellos did tell the Whites they admired designer Calvin Klein’s oceanfront house, a hulking, shingled mansion originally owned by Pan Am founder Juan Trippe.
Later, John White would take it upon himself to measure the house, saying it was roughly 16,000 square feet. Large indeed for the time. But had the Petrellos said they hoped to build a house like Calvin Klein’s in size? Or just style? Later, the Whites would say Petrello gave them repeated assurances his house would be modest in size; he just couldn’t put that in writing, they claimed he told them, because it would limit the size of the mortgage a bank would grant. (Petrello denies he ever said that.) The contract did say that if the Whites chose to sell any more acreage, Petrello would have the right to match the highest offers they got. John White could pass the property directly to any of his descendants, but any other plan would trigger this right of first refusal. After all, Petrello was like family now. If the Whites needed to sell any land, he should be able to buy it—to keep it in the family, so to speak.
White had no lawyer advise him on the 1995 memo of sale—he didn’t like lawyers as a rule, and hated their bills. Later, that would seem a grave mistake.
‘There’s not a single document telling me any square-foot limitation of size,” declares the man who is, to the Whites and their friends in Sagaponack, the villain of the tale.
Tony Petrello looks like the math professor he could have become: thickly bespectacled, soft of chin, stern, and rather pedantic. In his lawyer’s Houston office, only his elegant clothes suggest the oil-and-gas mogul he is. The picture becomes clearer when, with some reluctance, he leads a tour through his 18,000-square-foot Spanish Mission-style mansion in Shadyside, one of the city’s most exclusive enclaves. The five-acre property includes a tennis court, lots of gorgeous oaks, and a round grassy labyrinth, Cindy’s inspiration, based on the original at Chartres Cathedral. The labyrinth is for meditation; monks once followed the paths of the one at Chartres on their knees, the Petrellos explain as the lawn sprinklers come on, soaking Tony’s elegant shirt and Hermès tie and wrecking the meditative mood.
One off-season weekend, in 1996, White flew to Houston, on his own, to visit the Petrellos and see their new Shadyside house. How could he not realize that the Petrellos would want a comparable-size house on his field? White had a different perspective. He told his family he had Tony Petrello’s word the house would be modest, and that was enough for him.
The Petrellos’ original contract with architect Francis Fleetwood, dated October 1996, seems to support this: it called for the architect to design a house of between 4,500 and 7,000 square feet. Later, a judge would ask Fleetwood about those numbers. “If you look at my contracts, the numbers can be very accurate or very inaccurate,” Fleetwood would say. To which the judge would reply, “So why put them in?” Petrello’s lawyer, Berg, says, “What was really going on is that Fleetwood had had preliminary conversations with the Petrellos but had not started work. When Fleetwood did sit down with the Petrellos the next year, the result … was plans for an 18,000-square-foot home.”
The Petrellos were still renting “the model” in the summer of 1997—the subdivision process grinding along—but Tony was getting seriously rich, and to his friends he’d taken on “a bit of flash,” as one put it. When he spoke now of the house he wanted to build, the word he used, according to one friend, was “grandeur.” “Tony did say he wanted a home that conveyed a certain grandeur,” allows Berg, “but to the Petrellos that means quiet elegance and the complete opposite of flashy.”
As for the house in Shadyside, purchased in 1996, it was a disaster. The Petrellos planned a complete restoration—oil money had built it in 1920—and then the needs of their daughter, Carena, who had recently been diagnosed with cerebral palsy, dictated there be more bedrooms for all the nurses needed to care for her.
Petrello decided to change the design of the first floor. “But he liked the second floor,” recalls builder Chandler Robinson. “So he said, ‘Remove the first floor, but keep the second floor up there.’” Robinson found a way to do that, but it wasn’t easy. When he missed the original deadline, Petrello refused to pay him $350,000 and kept $250,000 the builder had given as “retainage” until the job was completed. Then Petrello sued him for not getting the work done on time. Robinson says he was stunned. He had built houses for former president George H. W. Bush and Michael Dell, of Dell Computers, among others. “If there’s a modern-day Satan, it’s Tony,” groans Robinson. “If you’re around him you see it: he’s mean, he’s self-centered, he’s very aggressive On top of everything, he wants to hurt you. He really wants to hurt you. It isn’t just business with Tony, it’s personal.” (In response, David Berg supplies a letter written by Robinson to the Petrellos in July 2001, after both sides had withdrawn their legal actions. In a formal tone, the letter states, “Our review has shown that the Petrellos are indeed honorable people who abide by their commitments.”)
Forced by Carena’s needs to stay in Houston, the Petrellos stopped going to Sagaponack. But they stayed in touch. By the summer of 1999, the Whites well understood that Tony Petrello wanted to build a big house on their field.
Concerned, John White wrote Petrello to ask about it. Petrello replied that the house would probably be just 14,000 to 16,000 square feet, adding that the odds were “very remote that the house exceeds 20,000 square feet.” In that letter, he offered to undo the deal if the Whites wished to “unscramble the eggs,” as he put it. But the Whites say they didn’t want to provoke him and were now wary of anything Petrello proposed. So was Mike Burrows. “At that point we became afraid of Tony,” Burrows later said in a court deposition. “Tony had changed And he became very aggressive It became clear to me that he was not going to do what he promised.” Burrows did admit Petrello had some cause to be irked. Not only was the subdivision unfinished, Petrello, at the Whites’ request, had sent three down payments totaling $635,000. And yet his piece of the land was still out of reach. The Whites still had it all.
“[The Whites] were sitting on land that was more valuable than anyone’s,” says Marilee Foster, whose own family has farmed in Sagaponack since the 1870s. “But they didn’t act like it. They were lower-middle-class to all appearances, driving broken-down pickup trucks. Obviously their eye was on something greater than financial reward.”
Now, with the kind of big house popping up right and left about to rise on John’s own field, he was appalled, but Foster never heard him lash out. About all she recalls him saying as the deal turned sour was “I guess a handshake just doesn’t mean anything anymore.” (Responds Berg, “That’s what I always say about the case: a man’s word is his bond. And it took a court order to enforce that bond.”)
John White was a man of few words, most of them short. Back before the summer people came, most of the farmers would gather every evening on the porch of Sagg General Store because the mail came at seven P.M. “Not usually John, though,” recalls Merrall Hildreth, whose family had owned the store since the late l9th century. Hildreth lived in the house next to the store—still does—and sometimes White would join him on the front porch. “I don’t talk much either,” says Hildreth. “The two of us together—it was pretty quiet.”
Still, in his ornery, Scots-quiet way, John White was a pillar of the village. He didn’t just serve in the Bridgehampton volunteer fire department; for a while he was its chief. “After a snowstorm, he would come plow your driveway—for free, of course, that’s what neighbors are for,” says Hildreth. The White children followed suit, with Tom and Jeffery active in the Presbyterian church, Barbara in the Horticultural Alliance of the Hamptons, and Johnnie a volunteer E.M.T.
Decades later, Johnnie still wins honors for responding to more calls than anyone else. “So many times at a beach party, Johnnie would get a call,” says Peter Klebnikov, an environmentalist and lifetime neighbor of the Whites. “A beautiful July Saturday night— and he would be the only guy who went to the scene. I’ve seen boldfaced names come up to him and thank him for saving their lives.”
Among the farmers of Sagaponack, John White had a reputation for being thrifty to a fault. Rather than buy a gravestone for himself and his late wife, he used the backside of his parents’ stone: there it is in the Sagaponack cemetery, with John C. White on front (1882–1946) and John C. White on back (l921-). Yet the Whites were setting aside for conservation more land in Sagaponack than anyone else: parcels the family had traded over generations with other farm families, some 90 acres in all. Selling that land to developers would have made the Whites rich. Instead they’d taken a fraction of market value to keep those fields open. “It’s hard for most of us to understand how deep an attachment to the land the Whites have,” says Klebnikov. “They’re like characters out of Willa Cather.”
Finally, the subdivision was approved and filed in mid-2000; the deal could close. Petrello would be getting 9.56 acres in three contiguous lots. But something very dramatic had happened since that long-ago porch meeting. Land prices had skyrocketed. The farm was now appraised at around $32 million. That meant that the $2 million wouldn’t even cover estate taxes. John White wrote to Petrello, suggesting they needed an extra $6 to $8 million for his lots, which together were now appraised at $14 to $16 million. Petrello declined. “There was a sense of entitlement to them,” Petrello says. “That they were entitled to redo a deal because it would help them.” Also, he says, “their argument that they needed the money to keep the farm is false. At any time they could have put a conservation easement on the land. But they wanted cash.”
The Whites say that isn’t true: Southampton’s land-preservation fund was established only in 1999 and didn’t have enough money in 2000 to buy an easement on the whole field. (The fund’s Mary Wilson confirms this.) The Whites could have donated the easement. But then they would have made no money at all.
The Whites canceled a first closing in late 2000. They felt Petrello had lied to them about the house size. They said he’d also promised, many times, to donate development rights to his northernmost lot, take the tax deduction, and sell the land back to the Whites at agricultural prices: a buffer for him, more farmland for them. This, too, he had said, couldn’t be put on paper, or so they recall. Petrello says he was always clear he’d do that only if and when he liked. To the Whites, that was another oral pledge broken. (Counters Berg, “These oral promises are fabrications.”) Until Petrello made some concessions on paper, they’d sit tight. They canceled a second closing the following May. Petrello sued a few days later. He notes that the Whites made no mention of giving him back his down-payment money or the money he’d spent getting the land subdivided. Jeffery White says Petrello never asked for his money back—and didn’t want it. “When he sued, we couldn’t have given him back his down payments—that was never on the table.” Besides, says White, “he was after the land. After all, it was worth so much more. And he had those rights of first refusal.”
Furious, Petrello said he would “bury” John White under legal bills, according to one of the Whites’ lawyers. Petrello claims he never said that. “My sentiment was I would do what [was] necessary to protect our rights.” Ten years later, the filings from that litigation fill a good-size storeroom.
A year ago this month, the Whites were finally forced to close on the sale: 9.56 acres, in three contiguous lots, to Petrello for $2.1 million—a slightly revised figure—less his down payments. Along the way, the Whites had done something that seemed to belie Petrello’s sense of them as greedy. They sold development rights to their beachfront land—all except the Petrellos’ slice—for $14 million to the Town of Southampton, which by early 2007 had the money in its preservation fund to swing that kind of deal. The Whites could have gotten twice that much by selling off beachfront lots of the subdivided field to mansion builders. Instead, the beachfront will remain open in perpetuity, a lovely view for all, including Tony Petrello. Most of that $14 million is gone—spent, in large part, battling with Petrello in court.
And yet Petrello is still filing more legal claims—for all the money and inconvenience he says the Whites have cost him. “It has nothing to do with money,” Petrello says. “It’s an issue of accountability and fairness.” He is demanding the Whites reimburse him for “delay damages.” These, says Berg, include the $62,500 Petrello spent on trees a decade ago in anticipation of the original closing, along with another $13,422.13 in landscaping. He wants them to pay him the $257,000 he paid his architect for the house he can no longer build, thanks to new flood-zone standards and coastal-erosion rules. Also for the increased cost, a decade later, of constructing his house. The original house, had it been built back in 2000, could have provided rental income ever since; Petrello wants that decade’s worth of rent, along with the money the Whites got from renting the dune-front cottage on Petrello’s parcel these last 10 summers. He wants the Whites to pay his 10 years’ worth of attorneys’ fees too: $4.3 million.
Petrello now knows that over time the Whites transferred ownership of most of the farm into trusts. He feels he knows why. By his right-of-first-refusal clause, any of the four children could inherit land directly. But what if one of them died? They have only one grandchild among them—Eliza, 25, daughter of Johnnie. Petrello feels the Whites used the trusts to allow for the passing of land into nonfamily hands. An early trust contains the main farmhouse; at one point it had less than 90 percent family ownership, which Petrello says triggers his rights. More recent trusts contain only family members but allow for the possibility—some future day—that the family trustees could bequeath the land to non-family members. That in itself, says Petrello, triggers his rights—today. So Petrello says he can buy all the land that’s gone into the trusts, at the same market value the trusts assigned to it. Those 24 acres of beachfront for which the Whites sold development rights? He can have 95 percent ownership of that chunk the family put into a trust—for the roughly $3 million value they set on it. As for the main farmhouse, Petrello notes it was put into an early trust without an ascribed value. So he’s due it for “zero consideration.” Once the Whites provide an honest answer to the value of the transfer, he adds, the Petrellos will pay that value.
Petrello has acquired a nearly 10-acre parcel of oceanfront land for a tenth of its current market value—or less. Is that not enough? “Why should they be allowed to walk away scot-free,” says David Berg, of the Whites, “when they’ve created all these problems and caused all this trouble for Tony?”
On these radiant days of early summer, most beachgoers throng down to Sagg Main Beach, oblivious to the fate of the field to their left. Mansions have encroached on, or all but covered, most of the farm fields that once spread like a patchwork quilt for miles. Lloyd Blankfein’s farm-style house on Parsonage looks almost demure, so large have the houses and their lots become since it was built.
Just north of Rennert’s property is the sprawling, gambreled mansion of Gary Sumers, a Blackstone senior managing director and chief operating officer of the investment firm’s real-estate group. A block away, on Hedges, lives billionaire financier Henry Silverman, lately of Apollo Management. The original farmhouse on his property, transformed, is now the guesthouse; the new main house looms behind it. Some of the largest of the new homes are on Sagg Pond. North of the bridge, near Bob Hurst and Gary Cohn, is the equally capacious wood-shingled retreat of Tracy Maitland, whose Advent Capital has managed hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons’s fortune.
All this has tested the bonds of community in a town that once prided itself on them. And the latest turns in the White-family-farm saga have left the longtime residents both angry and aghast. “Whatever mistakes [the Whites] may have made with this guy, I don’t know,” says Tinka Topping, who married into a farm family that, like the Whites, goes back in Sagaponack to the 1600s. “But someone who comes in to grab some beach footage for summer use is a travesty if it interferes with land that belongs to farmers and preserving whatever vestige of a farming community this village still has. It’s just infuriating to those of us who do care.”
“It appears that Mr. Petrello made a very good deal on the land exchange,” says Peter Matthiessen, “and one wonders why he would pursue these other claims under those circumstances.”
Petrello has big plans for Sagaponack.
He will start by replacing the cottage that sits on his oceanfront slice—the westernmost of the old White camps. Architectural plans submitted in late March to the Village of Sagaponack show a two-story, five-bedroom home with a library. Not counting its pool and deck, the new cottage will be nearly 5,000 square feet. This will be the guesthouse. No plans for the main house, behind it, have been submitted as of yet.
If Petrello wins his right-of-first-refusal suit, he’ll own some or all of every part of the farm, except for the house occupied at the north end by John White’s sole daughter, Barbara, 57. (Her house was deeded to her directly, so no right-of-first-refusal claim there—at least for now.) If he loses the suit, says Berg, Petrello will appeal. At some point, he may win by default. “I think he’s trying to bankrupt us,” says Johnnie White. “Because then we have to sell—and he gets right of first refusal.” (“That has never been [my clients’] aim,” counters Berg. “That is just one more slander from the Whites, designed to poison any jury pool.”)
“This is not revenge,” Petrello says. “This is just a continuation of two things. First, the original understanding was: if the White family wasn’t going to use it, it’s us. And basically what has happened, and these trusts only reinforce this, is that the Whites really aren’t farmers; they’re in the real-estate business. They have a bunch of summer renters; they don’t invest in the farm.”
“The land is all being farmed, just not by us—we lease the land to the Fosters, they farm it,” says Johnnie.
John White can no longer agree or disagree with a fully rational mind, but he knows that, for all his planning, something went wrong, and the farm, which he hoped to keep intact for his children, may soon be broken up.
“I don’t remember any agreement on three lots,” he says, rousing himself from his doze. “I don’t know where you get the three lots from, Tom.”
“I know, Dad,” says Tom. “I know.”
Report: Trump Had Even More Classified Documents Stashed in a Storage Facility Next to “Swords and Wrestling Belts”
Surprise: The ex-president had additional government documents in his possession that were not his to keep, despite claiming everything had been returned.
business
Eric and Don Jr. Signed Checks at the Center of Criminal Tax Fraud Trial: Longtime Trump Org CFO
As did their dad, Allen Weisselberg said in Manhattan Supreme Court on Thursday.
The Gagosian staffer has crashed contemporary art’s most guarded gates, elevating dozens of Black artists along the way. In the process he’s become the most buzzed-about curator-gallerist on the scene, whether the establishment likes it or not.
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The Italian builder has revealed the design thoughts behind the X-Space, a 44m, 495GT superyacht with a spectacular outdoor pool and open aft deck, and extensive use of glass.
The 44m X-Space has a volume of 495GT
Sanlorenzo revealed its new X-Space online with a live walk-through tour of the first hull under construction alongside project renders and design insights. The 44m, five-deck yacht features an exterior by Zuccon International Project and an interior design by Pierro Lissoni, with the first hull set to launch in 2023.
The X-Space has a remarkable volume of 495GT, a sub-500GT figure typically associated with 50m superyacht. The signature feature is the open aft area on the main deck, a multi-tasking terrace with an 18sqm swimming pool overlooking the sea that can also be ‘closed up’ during transfers or while in the marina. The outdoor space can be extended by another 18sqm due to the fold-down balconies that connect to the living area inside.
The yacht is distinguished by its open aft main deck
The wheelhouse is located on the bridge deck, so the upper deck can be entirely dedicated to the owner. Independent from the other areas, the owner’s deck includes a study, living room and a large master cabin that’s framed by glass walls and overlooks a 30sqm private foredeck with sunbeds and a pool.
Bernardo Zuccon of Zuccon International Project, a regular collaborator with Sanlorenzo, said: “I think it has never been so important as it has in this project to seek to identify with the owner, who will be the great commander of this boat, hence the desire to create an entire deck dedicated to their needs. This is a solution normally found on larger boats.
The 18sqm pool can be open to sea views or ‘closed’ aft
“It shows this is a yacht where the owner will have the great luxury of being able to spend a lot of time on board. I’ve always thought architecture is the primary tool to allow man to live better. In this case, the X-Space was born with the desire not to create a wonderful floating structure but to create a wonderful vessel for life.”
Another notable theme is transparency and the extensive use of glass to offer greater views and further blur the lines between outdoor and indoor areas.
The first X-Space will be launched in 2023
Lissoni said: “There are large panes of glass, large windows and some of the cabins no longer even have portholes but glass walls. The interior has forced its hand on the exterior, which has been so elastic and so well designed that the interior has almost adapted itself in a totally natural way.
“I think this is the most innovative language I’ve seen on a superyacht to date. It has made it possible to create a compact boat but with extraordinary proportions and the unique quality of Sanlorenzo.”
Sanlorenzo is represented in Asia by Simpson Marine.
The entry-level model for the Italian builder’s semi-displacement range, the SD96 will soon be in both Hong Kong and Thailand.
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Though in-ground sprinkler systems can do a good job of offering water to smaller landscape elements and turfgrass, trees require particular attention and care whenever it comes to watering.
Unfortunately, almost every sprinkler system does not offer enough water in the correct places to keep big trees hydrated. However, adding a simple soaker or garden hose to your watering routine can help in maintaining the health of your trees during the hottest season of the year. The ideal technique of watering varies on the tree’s size and age.
If you need help determining how to water your tree properly, you can always ask a tree service company for help.
How Should You Water a Newly Planted Tree?
For those who don’t know, a new tree is already in a susceptible condition. It is already stressed by the process of transplantation. Even when planted properly, a young tree can suffer easily to over- or under-watering.
You want to ideally keep the whole root zone moist. However, it shouldn’t be soggy.
Make sure you adapt accordingly your watering routine as the weather changes.
The correct watering schedule for your newly-planted tree varies on:
Other plants competing for the water
How well your soil drains
You should examine the soil near the root area every 2-3 days for moisture after the initial watering.
Wait for 1 to 2 days and check again if the soil is still wet.
Water again if the soil is dry.
You’ve got to feel how wet the soil is to a depth of 1 to 1 ½ foot. You can use a screwdriver to test the soil’s firmness. However, it is best to use your hands to feel the moisture.
You shouldn’t be scared to get your hands dirty.
Water all around the tree’s root area using a garden hose. This will help you start.
You might have a tiny basin around the trunk if the tree has been mulched properly.
Fill that spot and allow the water to soak it. Then, fill that spot again.
Newly-planted trees need more water compared to old and developed trees.
To determine properly the ideal watering schedule for the trees, it can take some time.
Both old and young trees can be stressed by too much water and less water. The indications of under-watering can sometimes be mistaken for over-watering.
The visible activity of fungi like mushrooms on the tree’s trunk or base is a certain indication that there’s too much water present.
Yellowing leaves can be an indication of both under- and over-watered trees.
There’s a possibility that your tree has been over-watered if the leaves are leather instead of dry or they’re difficult to pull off from the tree.
The major indication of over-watering is soggy soil.
The soil is waterlogged if there is standing water or if you can feel a squishy ground. It will take some time to dry out.
by secure_admin | Jul 16, 2022 | Tree Service
When people are sick, they usually go to the doctor. If they want to do something with their teeth, they visit the dentist. Also, they visit a vet if their pets have problems. However, who should we call when we’ve got problems with our trees? Can you call a tree doctor? Is there even a tree doctor?
Fortunately, tree doctors do exist. Just like regular medical professionals, tree doctors will need to get particular specializations, have the experience, and undergo training and education. Just like regular doctors, tree doctors count on a lot of other experts to offer the best care for your tree, such as a tree service company.
For those who don’t know, certified arborists are the ones known as tree doctors. If people utilize the term certified arborist, it means that they’re referring to a tree professional with a particular set of training and skills.
The ISA (International Society of Arboriculture) is the organization that establishes the standards for certification of arborists. This organization covers all states in the United States and has chapters across the globe.
An arborist needs to earn a particular amount of continuing education credits, pass a written test, and show experience caring for trees to be certified by the ISA. Every 3 years, the arborist will have to renew the certification.
An arborist needs to have a degree in forestry, arboriculture, or a related industry and should be a certified arborist for a particular number of years to become a master arborist.
In addition to that, they’ve got to show experience as an arborist for a particular time, be approved individually by the ISA Board of Examiners, and pass a hard written test.
Every 3 years, the master arborist needs to finish extensive continuing education in various topics to maintain board certification.
What Do They Offer?
A professional tree doctor is trained in every aspect of tree maintenance. This includes basic tree safety measures, planting, fertilization and watering, disease and pest diagnosis, health evaluation, and proper trimming.
Tree doctors generally should know how to keep a tree healthy by trimming it properly. They should also know when to suggest removal for safety purposes, how to recognize stressors, pests, or diseases that may be affecting the tree.
Aside from the basic tree care needs, a couple of tree doctors obtain further credentials in a particular field.
Managing and recognizing safety risks related to tree failure or tree breakage is a subject that is studied more often. Because of this, the ISA developed the TRAQ (Tree Risk Assessment Qualification) as an approach for tree doctors to show their expertise in this field.
In addition to that, there are qualifications available for arborists, for safety specialists, and for specialized tree works who work around hazardous power lines or conduct municipal work.
A tree doctor can also consult with others in the industry to provide the best tree service. Usually, they will consult a master arborist for better experience and knowledge in a lot of areas. They can offer support to other tree doctors.
by secure_admin | Jul 16, 2022 | Concrete Service
What’s the ideal option for you? a stamped overlay or concrete stamping? Are there any differences between these choices? Nowadays, it is really hard for homeowners to choose the right one for their needs due to the growing number of options for decorative concrete available on the market.
Concrete is one of the most popular materials when it comes to construction. The reason for this is that it lasts for a couple of years. It is true that the lifespan of concrete can be an excellent thing. This is because you won’t pay often for replacement or repairs. However, this type of longevity can also have a couple of drawbacks since it might mean you’ll be stuck to a particular texture or design with which you aren’t pleased.
The drawbacks of concrete durability and cost make understanding the options crucial before hiring a concrete company Chicago. Fortunately, we are here to help. Today, we are going to share with you the difference between the concrete overlay and concrete stamping.
The same elegant textures and patterns that are made through concrete stamping can also be obtained with the help of a stamped overlay. However, the process is not the same. Rather than applying the stamp to concrete that is freshly laid, an overlay is applied and the stamping is then done to it. For those who don’t know, the overlay is a unique thin layer of concrete products that can stick to an old concrete surface.
Concrete stamping produces excellent texture and styles on a concrete surface. Textures and patterns are created in fresh concrete with this method. The concrete contractor usually uses unique mats to create these patterns. The method can be utilized to mimic the look of wood, brick, stone, and slate. One of the advantages of concrete stamping is that you can utilize it to add style and visual interest to what otherwise will be a very dull surface.
How to Pick the Ideal Method for Your Project?
Stamped overlays are the ideal option if your project already has an old concrete surface that just requires a new look. As long as the concrete surface is safe and sound, it can be made to look new again. The concrete contractor can do this just by applying an overlay and then producing the preferred pattern and texture. Before the overlay is applied, any cracks or other flaws in the existing concrete needs to be fixed.
However, it isn’t always possible to save an old concrete surface. Because of this, you might need a complete replacement. In addition to that, there can be places where a concrete surface has to be installed since there’s no one there already. On both occasions, traditional concrete stamping is the ideal method to use.
If you really don’t have any idea on what the best concrete to use, you can ask a professional concrete company for help. They will assess your project first and offer you the best suggestion that will fit your needs.
by secure_admin | Jun 30, 2022 | Tree Removal
It is normal to see lots of trees in our city as it could be one of the most useful and helpful living things as they could give us air. We always think that they don’t have problems as we could get more things from them like the fresher wind and fruits that we can eat anytime that we want. You should know also the possible danger that it could bring to your place not because they are standing there but the other factors that made them very weak there. When this one happened, you need to choose whether you will call a tree removal contractor service Chicago IL to cut it down or remove them on your own way.
When there is a problem with the tree, then you need to pay attention about this one sooner or else it might cause some troubles to you in the garden. The worst thing about it is that some people or the city government would not care for the trees that are planted on the street or public areas in there. It means that they don’t think about the condition whether they are on a healthy side or they are dying as they could just replace this one in the future. There are many reasons on why the trees in public places are considered unhealthy as it could be about the diseases that they are having or due to the infestation.
We should be familiar with the different kinds of diseases and the reasons on why trees are not looking very well and sometimes it could be the cause of death.
There are times that it is too hard to identify if the tree is already dead because they are still standing there and it seems nothing is wrong to them. You could see it from the leaves that it doesn’t have much in there and the parts are starting to fall off as well like a very weak and sick kid.
If you could see a lot of insects and pests around the tree, then you should find a solution to kill them so that they would grow better and healthier. The pests are eating the parts of the trees like the leaves and it would cause problems to the tree.
If the tree is dying, then you might be seeing some mushrooms growing to the part of the trunk.
If the tree is not getting better then you need to find a great person to deal with it.
Falling of the branches could not be so normal especially if this one is happening more often.
If the roots are too big and it is getting the area of the sidewalk, then you should find a way out.
by secure_admin | Jun 30, 2022 | Electrician Service
If people are worried about the possible dangers at home like the electrical shocks, then you should not be worried only for yourself but also for your pets at home. We know and we can’t blame them for what will happen as they don’t have the right mind like the people to do the things properly or to avoid things. It is important when there is a problem with the wires or the electrical stuff in your house, you should call for an electrician service Oak Park IL very quick. In this manner, it will reduce the chance of having some problems in your house especially if you have some kids there or you don’t know what to do there.
You should care more about your pets, too as they don’t know what they can do in the case that there’ll be some electrical misuse or when they bite it. The fact that sometimes we leave the pets at home with no one to take care or to look after them, then they might be pulling some wires in there. You need to make sure that they can’t chew the things at home including the cords of the appliances or else it would be a big trouble to you now. It is a nice thing that you know what you can do to help your pets be safe and to keep them away from the possibility of experiencing some troubles.
When you care for your pets you should know the different hacks to keep the cords and the different things at home safe for your pets like electrical malfunctions there.
After using the wires or the appliances and even the charger for the phone, you need to keep them in a safe place which is far from your pets. It is nice that the place is above the ability of the dog to reach it and you should always do this one to make sure that they are safe. It makes the dog safe and your cords as well without worrying of the possibility that they will bite it or chew any time that you’re not looking at them.
After watching the TV, you could remove the plug of it from the outlet to make sure that the dog would not reach or for your own safety as well. In this way, no matter that there will be a chance that they could reach the wires or the cords, then it is not plug to the wall outlet.
You could train your dog not to bite or chew the wires in your house.
If there are some damages to the wires, then you should call for some help from the expert so that they could repair as soon as possible.
by secure_admin | Jun 30, 2022 | Plumber
Water is one of the most important elements that we have right now as we can’t live for many days if we are not going to drink some more water. Our body is also composed of several percentage of water in order for our body to work well and be able to deliver the different nutrients to the different parts. Some might not understand the importance of the water to our daily lives unless they would experience some scarcity of water like not having enough supply in their own city. It could be about that there is a problem with the water source and they need to find a plumber Clarkston MI to repair the trouble in the water pipes.
You can teach your kids on how to conserve the water at home and help them to realize the importance of the water in everyday life like for drinking purposes. You can always make used of the rain water if you are just going to water the plants outside or when you are about to clean the house or floor. It is always nice to know how to use the water properly at home as it could help you to reduce the water bill and your kids wouldn’t waste it. Of course, it is not only about your kids who will do this one but all the people in your family or in the house so that you can observe.
Let’s try to be more careful when it comes to using the water and we can give you more details about the proper ways to conserve the water at home.
We tend to use the water or the faucet continuously even when you are not fully using them because we are too lazy to turn it off when using it. One good example here is the time that when you are brushing your teeth and washing your face as you could use a glass and the water dipper for it.
When you notice that there is something strange about the water or the drop of it from the faucet then there could be something bad with the pipes or sources. If you want, you can call the expert or the plumber to check and examine the place as could there be a leakage in the water system of the source.
Many people would spend too much time in the shower room and sometimes more than an hour as they believe that they need more time to clean themselves in there. You could use a pail or the dipper to know how much water usage do you use every single day and to keep the proper ways to conserve more water.
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Our prices are not inclusive of any taxation or customs charges you may be liable for on your packages entry into your country. Please refer to your country's government website for more information, about customs.
Please ensure your delivery address is correct and secure: We are not responsible for items not received due to an incorrect or an incomplete shipping address. Items marked undeliverable due to an incorrect shipping address will be reissued if and when they are received back and will incur a re-shipping fee.
Lost Packages : If your package gets lost in transit, we will do everything we possibly can to assist you. We are not responsible for packages once proof of delivery is generated.
Once an item is shipped, we are no longer responsible. We do not refund for packages lost in transit. We are unable to refund or replace stolen packages or any un-retrieved packages that have been confirmed as delivered.
*If you would like to ask for a signature on the package, please include this information under 'Order Notes' at check out.
We hope you love your latest Jenny On The Go piece as much as we do. If it was not what you were expecting, we will happily exchange your order and assist you so that you can #feelgood.
We have a 7 day exchange policy. The window of your exchange policy starts the day your product was delivered. NO REFUNDS.
Once the items have been received and inspected, the costumer will be issued a store credit so that they can exchange their product.
Please note customers will not be refunded for initial shipping costs and are responsible for all related shipping fee's for their return.
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In its original condition with tags still attached
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Original order shipping charges are not refundable.
JennyOnTheGo is not responsible for exchange shipping costs, nor duty reimbursement in the case of international purchases.
JennyOnTheGo does not offer price adjustments on sales.
All sales are final on promotions.
We will process your exchange as soon as possible.
We have the right to deny exchanges if the merchandise returned does not meet our return policy requirements.
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Please email us at assistant@lopezjennylopez.com Please include your order # if purchase was made.
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About the shop
Jenny-On-The-Go is an online marketplace curated by Jenny Lopez, a model, blogger and lifestyle enthusiast who has a keen sense for fashion and all things beauty!
Jenny aims to discover newness around the globe, with the goal of giving visibility to designers, upcoming brands, and making you #feelgood.
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Azealia Amanda Banks (born May 31, 1991) is an American rapper, singer, and songwriter from Harlem, New York, USA, formerly known under the pseudonym Miss Bank$. Banks rose in notability in 2011 when she topped NME's "Cool List", finished third in BBC's Sound of 2012 and released her breakout debut single 212 (feat. Lazy Jay). Releasing the 1991 EP and Fantasea mixtape in 2012, her debut album Broke With Expensive Taste was delayed for three years, being released in November 2014. Growing up, B...
Azealia Amanda Banks (born May 31, 1991) is an American rapper, singer, and songwriter from Harlem, New York, USA, formerly known under the pseudonym Miss Bank$. Banks rose in notability in 2011 when she topped NME's "Cool List", finished third in BBC's Sound of 2012 and released her breakout debut single 212 (feat. Lazy Jay). Releasing the 1991 EP and Fantasea mixtape in 2012, her debut album Broke With Expensive Taste was delayed for three years, being released in November 2014.
Growing up, Bank's mother raised her and two older sisters in Harlem after their father died when Banks was two. At a young age she became interested in musical theater, acting, and singing. She performed in off-Broadway musicals with the Tada! Youth Theater, and attended LaGuardia High School of Performing Arts where she starred in the school production of City of Angels at sixteen. An agent became interested in her, and she dropped out of high school in order to pursue a music career. Under the moniker 'Miss Bank$', she released her debut Gimme A Chance (accompanied by Seventeen) onto the internet in February 2009. Later that year, Banks signed to record label XL Records and began working with producer Richard Russell; she left the label later that year due to conflicting ideas.
Following this, Banks left behind the 'Miss Bank$' moniker and formally became Azealia Banks, which preceded a move to Montreal. Banks uploaded several demo tracks on Youtube - including L8R and a cover of Slow Hands by Interpol. In September 2011, Banks released her debut single 212 (feat. Lazy Jay) as a free digital download from her website, which was subsequently released officially on December 6, 2011 as the lead single from one of Banks' future releases. The track attained European chart success, peaking at number seventeen in Netherlands, number twelve in the United Kingdom and at number seven in Ireland. Though unsigned at the time, Banks began working with British producer Paul Epworth on a debut studio album. In December 2011, it was announced that Banks would feature on Scissor Sisters' single Shady Love, though uncredited.
On January 16, 2012, Banks released NEEDSUMLUV (SXLND), coinciding with the thirty-third birthday of the late singer Aaliyah, who is sampled on the track. A week later it was announced that the Paul Epworth-produced Bambi had been selected as the soundtrack for the Mugler F/W 2012 men's show. In February, she announced that her upcoming debut album would be titled Broke With Expensive Taste. In May, Banks announced plans to release a mixtape called Fantastic (later changed to Fantasea). Preceding its release was Jumanji on May 11, Aquababe on June 13, and Nathan ft. Styles Pon June 30. Fantasea was released on July 11.
Banks' first extended play, 1991, was released in the United Kingdom on May 28, 2012 and in the United States the following day. Both the title track and the EP itself achieved success, charting in Europe and the U.S while reaching gold in Australia. The music video for Liquorice was released on June 14. BWET, originally planned for release in September, was pushed back to January 2013.
BWET singles Miss Amor, Soda and Chasing Time were announced but not released. However, Yung Rapunxel and ATM Jam featuring Pharrell were released in January 2013 and September 2013, respectively. In January 2014, Banks said she was "literally begging to be dropped" from Interscope via Twitter, as BWET was moved back to March. In February, her Soundcloud was deleted due to copyright infringement on Fuck Up the Fun. Banks, frustrated with delays to her album, announced on Twitter that she would be leaking BWET on April 15, but the album was not leaked. New single Wallace was announced but not released.
In July 2014, Banks announced she was being released from her label and announced Heavy Metal and Reflective as her next single. This was followed by Chasing Time in September. On November 6, Banks dropped Broke With Expensive Taste on iTunes with little warning.
Banks announced that her next project will be Fantasea II: The Second Wave, a follow-up to her 2012 mixtape Fantasea. On February 17, 2017, Banks released a Lunice collaboration, titled "Crown", to music-streaming service SoundCloud as a promotional single, before the release of her sophomore album. On June 5, 2017, Banks released the song "Chi Chi". On June 26, 2017, Banks released another promotional single from her third mixtape to SoundCloud titled, "Escapades".
On January 31, 2018, Banks announced that she had signed a $1 million record deal with Entertainment One. On March 9, 2018, she released "Movin' On Up", which featured Newbody, to iTunes and other streaming platforms as the 4th promotional single from Fantasea II: The Second Wave. In March 2018, she announced that the first official single from her forthcoming album would be "Anna Wintour". It was released on April 6, 2018, and the official music video for the single was released on May 24, 2018. On July 6, a second single, "Treasure Island", was released.
In November, Banks announced on her Instagram account that she would be releasing an Christmas-themed extended play on December 7, 2018 named Icy Colors Change A demo of the title track was released in December 2017. The project will explore more jazz-oriented sounds. The project was released on December 19 after several delays, with a promotional single titled "What Are You Doing New Year's Eve?" released on December 13. Tracks included are "Icy Colors Change", and "What Are You Doing New Years Eve?"
In January 2019, Banks took to her private Twitter account to discuss her upcoming studio albums. Feeling that Fantasea II wasn't complete to her liking, Banks announced that she would release her other studio album, Business and Pleasure ahead of Fantasea II: The Second Wave. Banks said that Fantasea II will be released in summer 2019.
In May 2019, Banks announced she had been working on a project in Russia called Yung Rapunxel: Pt. II as a follow up mixtape to her debut single off Broke With Expensive Taste called Yung Rapunxel. It was set to be released ten days after its official announcement but has now been delayed to the September 11th, 2019. Read more on Last.fm. User-contributed text is available under the Creative Commons By-SA License; additional terms may apply.
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Kids of the 90's were excited this Halloween season as the long awaited sequel to Hocus Pocus premiered on Disney Plus. According to reports, it is the most successful premiere in the streaming service's history for a movie. Well it looks like a lot of households have summed hell into their household's according to Jamie Gooch out of Troy, Texas.
Her post went viral online (which has since been deleted), thankfully our good friends at KWTX got her side of the story and more details on what she meant.
“A worst case scenario is: you unleash hell on your kids and in your home,” said Jamie Gooch, “The whole movie is based on witches harvesting children for blood sacrifices.”
“Do not watch this film,” she warned, “Everybody thinks it’s fake and innocent, but they could be casting any type of spell that they want to, anything could be coming through that TV screen into your home.”
Jamie is also one of these parents who do not allow her children to take part in Halloween. I swear if she is one of these houses that hands out pamphlets on Satan, I would 100% have egged her house back in the day.
“I was a little bit scared when I hit post because I was afraid of the reaction that I would get...the post was for people who’ve been on the fence on the decisions they need to make for their family,” said Gooch to KWTX. “It was wonderful in a sense that a lot of people agreed with me in that they already knew, there were some that didn’t understand, but it was welcomed: tell me your opinion I want to hear where you’re coming from, although it doesn’t change my convictions or what I choose to do with my family.”
Listen, do what you want with your kids lady. If you don't think this movie is appropriate for them to watch, so be it. Saying that by watching this movie could unleash a spell through your television is an insane statement.
LOOK: How Halloween has changed in the past 100 years
Stacker compiled a list of ways that Halloween has changed over the last 100 years, from how we celebrate it on the day to the costumes we wear trick-or-treating. We’ve included events, inventions, and trends that changed the ways that Halloween was celebrated over time. Many of these traditions were phased out over time. But just like fake blood in a carpet, every bit of Halloween’s history left an impression we can see traces of today.
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New Sunrise International School is the first international school in Hurghada. We’ve been in operation since 2007. With over 15 years of experience in offering quality education, we are experts in the field of education. In our school, we consider our students to be our main priority. Our mission and goal is to develop all of our students academically, physically, and equip them with proper ethics and behaviors to succeed in a constantly developing world. Our school is equipped with advanced technology and facilities to untap the potential of our students.
New Sunrise International School is devoted to excellence in teaching, learning, and research, and developing leaders in many disciplines who make a difference.
International focus – our students come from across the globe
Residential courses – we encourage learning and growth
People not profits – education is a right not a privilege
Our mission is to provide a multicultural educational environment for our students in which they achieve academic success, personal growth, and become socially
responsible and active global citizens with an appreciation of learning as a life-long process.
sunrise International school promotes cross culture awareness by honouring and valuing individual differences and supporting the strengths of all individuals to ensure that instruction reflects the realities and diversity of the world. NSIS strives to provide a stimulating learning environment with technological orientation across the whole curriculum, producing successful and productive citizens of high morals.
Realising potential – We believe in your child as much as you do. We see the potential in each of our students and we are passionate and committed to ensuring that your child reaches his or her full potential. Our approach to education is inclusive, nurturing and empowering. We want to make a positive impact on the lives of our students and their families.
Delivering a curriculum that stimulates the minds of learners inside and outside of school, offering an integrated inquiry-based program, respecting our students and teaching them to respect other individuals, and to respect the origins, religions, values, and traditions, recognizing and appreciating the achievements of all members of the school community.
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Traditional and Expanded Medicaid are state by state programs that provide full health care coverage to low-income individuals, families and children, pregnant women, the elderly, and people with disabilities.
Eligibility is based on the individual’s aid category.
Individuals eligible for home and community-based services
Individuals who are dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid
Individuals in nursing homes, intermediate care facilities for the intellectually disabled, and state-operated facilities
Benefits include all services that are covered under Package A – Standard Plan such as doctor visits, hospital expenses, nursing home care, home health care but does not cover prescription drugs.
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On Friday I asked my email list (and the wonderful social media community) what you guys wanted for me to do to celebrate the launch of Vacant on December 2nd. I gave you some options, and you guys gave me some great ideas. Here’s the breakdown. What bonuses should I give you guys to […]
Filed Under: big milestones, launch countdown, Yay me!
Alex Hughes – Author of the Mindspace Investigations series
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If you've enjoyed my writing, please consider buying me a cup of coffee and help support my next caffeine-fueled work.
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The Shift Series books are deceptive. In part because they're part of a larger suite of series and in part because they're a YA/NA crossover, they have some little details stuck in that are easy to miss on the first pass. Here's my top 5, but make sure to comment and tell me what I'm … Continue reading 5 Details Readers Miss in The Shift Series
October 15, 2018 October 12, 2018 ellebeauregard Shift Series
IT'S HAPPENING!! Yes, this is a re-release of my most popular series. But that doesn't mean there aren't some significant differences between these new versions and the originals. If you already love Leah and Drake, this new version will not leave you wanting. New readers will find an experience more in line with my original … Continue reading Big News!
July 21, 2017 July 21, 2017 ellebeauregard Shift Series
Chapter 12 My ear was still aching by the time dinner rolled around. And everybody had matching earrings now: single, flat, bright red disks, rimmed in silver, shining like beacons in the newly inflamed cartilage of everybody’s right ear. Beside me, Collin’s toes were tapping out a rhythm under the table. On my other side, … Continue reading Waiting (Shift Series 3.5) | The End
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The short answer is that trash bins usually smell plus germs don't discriminate – they are everywhere and they think the sludge in dirty bins is the perfect place to multiply. Our high pressure hot water is the perfect eco-friendly weapon to scrub out the sludge, kill germs and help protect your home.
It is a job no homeowner looks forward to doing so let the pros handle it - trust me it'll be WAY easier and more affordable than you think. Plus think about the wastewater... do you really want to dump that in your lawn or driveway? With Alpha Bin Cleaning all the wastewater is contained in our hopper and disposed of the safe eco-friendly way!
How do I get the gunk and funk out of my bins?
Wait until you see these specially made trucks & trailers! They heat up clean water to over 200 degrees and pressurize it to 3500 psi, then blast the inside of your garbage bin until it is thoroughly SCRUBBED! The heat and pressure sanitize and disinfect, then we use a very light biodegradable odor neutralizer to make sure your bins stay fresh until the next service. No harsh chemicals at all for the cleaning process, and we collect and remove the wastewater to be processed in an environmentally safe way. Trash bin cleaning doesn't have to be hard, let us do the dirty work.
What areas do you serve right now?
We serve all of Wichita and surrounding areas!
Why is this a subscription service?
We like to think of Alpha Bin Cleaning as a necessity much like your trash service. You continue to make trash, trash smells awful, and bins will stay much cleaner and fresh with regular service. You can adjust the service or cancel at any time but you might want to think twice about going back to those nasty bins!
How often should Alpha Bin clean my bins?
We offer several different options to choose from so you can customize to fit your preference. Each option is listed under the pricing section. In our professional opinion, we encourage monthly because whether your trash bins appear “clean” or not can’t be just based off of smell and what you can see. A lot of the concerning bacteria and germs are what you can’t see and are not aware of. It’s all about regular cleanings and consistency that will serve you best!
When will you come to clean my bin?
We will schedule your bins to be cleaned the same day as your trash service.
How do I sign up?
Super simple! Go to the "Pricing" tab at the top of this page, select the service plan that fits your needs and fill out the form. Enter in all the information that we ask for and you will be set. You will receive email/text reminders when you are scheduled.
How do I pay for this? Up Front?
We like to keep things simple... you pay when you sign up. Then your account will auto renew according to the plan you signed up for. That way you aren't worried about paying yet another bill every month or two, just set it and forget it. You can change payment information at any time - you are in control.
Do you use hazardous chemicals?
No, our cleaning trucks only use hot water and high pressure to clean and sanitize. We use an environmentally friendly biodegradable odor neutralizer, and occasionally (often for first time can cleaning) we may also use a biodegradable degreaser to loosen things up. All of the wastewater from this process is taken with us on the truck to be disposed of properly.
Does Alpha Bin Cleaning work year round?
Yes, as long as mother nature plays nicely we will clean your bins year round. Winter time can be challenging and we want to be upfront that our trucks will not operate properly in a extreme cold. If either for weather or for some unforeseen reason we are not able to service your bins the day of your trash service, we will make every attempt to reschedule your service in a timely manner.
How will I know that Alpha Bin Cleaning is coming?
Once you've signed up, we’ll send you a welcome email! We will then get you scheduled as soon as possible and notify you of the first service date. Leading up to your cleaning visit, you will receive an email reminder the evening before service, and a text message reminder the morning of service to leave your bins outside.
How will you protect my information if I sign up?
Your personal information is kept strictly confidential and will never be shared with anyone, Ever! Your payment information is not kept in our internal system, it is securely stored with our payment processer authorize.net, a leader in PCI compliance certified by Leaders. The payment information is transferred, stored, and processed via a secured tokenization method at Leaders. Your secure client login is where you will go to update/change payment method.
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Copyright © 2022 Alpha Bin Cleaning. Website Designed and Hosted by Total Marketing Solutions NJ LLC.
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Subject to Return and Exchange are all items including: Stationery, Bags, Gifts, Toys, and Electronics; unless found with a manufacturing defect.
Accepting shipment from shipping company declares that the shipment (package) is in good condition and it is sealed upon receiving.
To benefit from return, exchange, and warranty services, original invoice is required. Warranty services are limited to all toys and electronics only.
Returns and exchange services are available if products are in their original condition with original packaging.
Promotional item(s) can be returned with the main purchased item if the promotional item is in original condition when purchased, otherwise promotion price will be deducted.
Item(s) purchased using gift certificate, voucher, or credit card cannot be refunded in cash.
For return to origin (RTO) items, the customer will be charged with the amount of ten (10) AED only for courier charges.
Immediately Replacement of Defective Items
The Bookshop Library Est. will replace devices with a manufacturing defect (non-software) with a similar item within seven (7) days of purchase date based on following condition:
The device must be returned with the Original packaging along with the box, user manuals and accessories.
Free of scratches or signs of misuse of the device.
A technical report from the management might be required prior to replacement.
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About the shop
A Shop that you where find and satisfices your needs regarding Books, Stationeries, Bags, Gifts, Toys, Electronics and Copy Center.
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Ms. P came to us after a stay in the hospital following a STEMI. She suffered general weakness and required SPO2 on at all times upon admission. Ms. P could not walk or get up and down without moderate assistance. Ms. P was able to get herself ready and walk out of the facility with no use of oxygen on her day of discharge without using as assistive device! This is Ms. P’s second stay at our facility in the last few years and she states, “Y’all have all been so good to me”. Ms. P is excited to return home and oversee her boys’ while they run her business. She also can’t wait to get her hands on those grandkids. Good luck Ms. P!
There was a lot of encouragement from the CNA’s and therapy team. Darryl B. was great!
We were so honored to celebrate our amazing veterans. These ladies and gentlemen sacrificed for us all. We are blessed to care for them know. The steak dinner was amazing but does not come close to the debt we owe them. Thank you to all our veterans and their families
I chose Camden Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center for myself because I have been here before. The therapy was wonderful and I loved all the girls. Bambi would be my best friend if I could pick one. Everybody has been wonderful, the girls have worked together, and I have been happy.
The Therapy Department was very good and helped treat my pain without medications. My experience at Camden Healthcare felt just like coming home!
The reason I chose this center is that it's close to home and easier for family to visit. Everyone went above and beyond.
The nurses and CNA's were very sweet! The CNA's took extra time with helping me. It is a comfortable place to be---it's like home. Everyone is considerate and eager to help!
It has been great from the beginning to the end, even though I wasn't very nice in the beginning! Every department was great at doing its job and making you feel comfortable. I really appreciated the therapy department.
The therapy department really stood out and they seem to know what they were doing. It was hard work, but it paid off! The CNAs were good to me as well. Everyone has been very good and I am going to miss everyone!
The rehab and nursing teams were great! The CNAs show a lot of concern and care.
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It is the policy of this facility to fully comply with all federal and state laws governing fraud and abuse in healthcare programs and to expect all employees, contractors, and consultants to conduct themselves in an ethical and responsible manner. This facility does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, disability, past/present history of mental disorder, or age in admission or access to treatment or employment in programs and activities as required by Title VI of the Civil Rights act of 1964, Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and the Age Discrimination Act of 1975. Other agency guidelines prohibit discrimination on the basis of creed, marital status and sex.
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Studying for the PMP exam can be a daunting task, one that is not easily undertaken as a solo participant. By studying with others, PMP candidates can help each other prepare more thoroughly and efficiently. The hard part is finding others to study with. The PMP Study Group Program simplifies this process for you and helps make connections between PMP candidates who take seriously the task of preparing for the exam.
The PMP Study Group Program is free of charge and provides chapter members an opportunity to work with other chapter members to enhance their ability to pass the PMP exam. A PMP mentor will be assigned to each study group to give advice on how the test is administered, how to study, what materials to use, and facilitate the planning and logistics for the group. Take advantage of this free offer from the Professional Growth Committee of PMI Atlanta to help you pass the PMP exam on your first try!
We are always looking for a strong mentor for our study groups. If you are interested in hosting, please email us.
Notes: The PMP Study Groups are designed for PMP candidates who already have fulfilled the educational and experience qualifications of the PMP credential. The typical study process is designed to take place over a 12-week period. A PMP study group does not qualify as "contact hours" for the PMP educational requirement. This program is offered only to members of PMI Atlanta as a member benefit.
Why be in a PMP Study Group?
Networking with other project managers
Opportunity to discuss material to uncover areas of confusion, gain new insights, and aid in memorization
Opportunity to compare notes with fellow students to clarify and fill in gaps
Discover areas where more work/help is needed before exam day
Learn from seeing others? Learn study habits, approaches, and perspectives
Easier to commit more time to course work when working with a group. Note the groups are interactive.
Support others - help each other
Teaching/explaining something to someone else can help you master it yourself
Further develop your own interpersonal skills
Enhance your motivation through encouragement and mutual support
We are always looking for a strong mentor for our study groups. If you are interested in hosting, please email us.
Never regard study as a duty, but as the enviable opportunity to learn to know the liberating influence of beauty in the realm of the spirit for your own personal joy and to the profit of the community to which your later work belongs.
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Several years ago, Manfred Kets de Vries, Distinguished Clinical Professor of Leadership Development and Organisational Change at INSEAD, a psychoanalyst by profession and a scholar I greatly admired, suggested that a majority of leaders he had encountered exhibit some kind of personality disorder. He argued in several books and academic articles, that most CEOs are obsessive, disregard the feelings of others, and tend towards narcissism.
In my own experience his analysis hit the nail on the head. Accepted sociopathic symptoms including manipulative and deceptive behaviour, a lack of remorse, a determination to pass the buck, and undisguised arrogance, combined with high levels of superficial charm, were common qualities in those with whom I had encountered as an adviser and consultant. Not everyone mind you. But certainly most. This, incidentally, was in distinct contrast to those who approached me for mentoring who were mostly humble, honest, and excruciatingly self-aware of their own strengths and weaknesses.
But then Kets de Vries, a highly respected academic and consultant, toned-down his views, presumably so as not to offend that constituency upon whom he relied for his consulting work. He began to reframe his hypothesis, claiming that sociopathic personalities were not necessarily bad. Indeed, that constructive narcissism, a blend of self-love and self-belief, is essential in order to prosper in corporate life.
He did not question at what point constructive narcissism might become destructive, and how organisations and their shareholders actually benefit from such pathological conduct in executive ranks. He failed to contextualise such behaviours, or point to differences we might expect from men and women in high pressure positions. He avoided exploring why antisocial personalities are still seen as successful – outside of a few highly spurious and ultimately superficial factors. And he abstained from suggesting that other benefits could accrue from a system in which sociopathic leadership qualities were rejected out of hand.
In effect his modified position cleverly maintains the status quo of a system in crisis and in dire need of business and cultural evolution together with, we must assume, a bountiful supply of clients eager to access his services to find plausible justifications for their “unfortunate but necessary” behaviour.
For at least the past decade there has been mounting evidence to indicate organisations that tolerate sociopaths in positions of power, are those most likely to be hit by successive scandals and internal crises of one kind or another, in an environment demanding honesty, openness, empathy, virtuous practices, and at least a vestige of humility. Not to have such traits these days increases the risk that an organisation will fail to fulfil its promise.
Failure can be seen from a variety of perspectives. Most fundamentally these are:
an organisation’s operational performance based upon stakeholder expectations
an organisation’s perceived standing and integrity in the community – resulting from explicit interpretations of its implicit “license to operate”
an organisation’s ability to attract and keep staff purposefully engaged.
Until the middle 20th century, organisational performance had mostly focused on efficiency and productivity. It was very internally focused. But then, as radically new information and communications technologies took hold, and globalism made mass markets accessible, the emphasis shifted. Today almost every aspect of organisational performance is driven by external factors while perceptions, however inaccurate or unfair, are as important to the enduring nature of the business as the financial accounts.
Contemporary stakeholders are continuously demanding new and higher standards from business corporations. Higher quality, lower cost, easier access, technological currency, human interaction, ethical purity, and brand resonance, are just a few of the potentially conflicting dilemmas faced by corporations customarily concerned with profitability and market share. Against that context, the slightest whiff of unethical or delinquent behaviour from the leadership casts a pall of mistrust among staff who feel unable or unwilling to corroborate the official story, particularly where this conflicts with their own experiences.
Professor Gary Hamel at the London Business School estimates that every day over $1 billion is spent on learning and development in organisations across the world – almost twice as much as the world spends on Apple products. Roughly $100 million of that is invested in developing leaders. Yet the trend concerning employee engagement remains doggedly poor. Around 13-17 per cent overall. Why is this so?
Where is the return on that investment in leadership when most staff feel so disengaged and have no commitment to the enterprise? What are they to do when the most highly-paid executives in the organisation have such grossly inflated views of their own self-worth and capabilities? What recourse do they have when they constantly come up against disdain, deceit, manipulation, ruthless tough-mindedness, and a denial of responsibility?
The myth of the strong, charismatic alpha-male CEO, still pervades the corporate world and remains the most sought-after profile by executive search firms. The merits of ruthlessness, dispassionate manipulation, hubris and psychopathic charm are still admired, while their negative consequences are routinely discounted.
We need only examine statements from numerous whistle-blowers to acknowledge the truth of this statement. Over the past 25 years, all around the world, from the collapse of Enron, the lies perpetuated by large tobacco and pharmaceutical companies, the failure of the energy companies to move from fossil fuels to renewables, and trading scandals in banks that eventually led to upheavals in senior executive ranks, significant financial loss, and incalculable reputational damage, the scene has been one of shameful predictability.
Yet some of the largest, most flourishing companies, now seem eager to copy a range of smaller, start-up enterprises that seem to be attracting the most gracious, smart, humble, cooperative, and emotionally-intelligent individuals at their helm. Many of these are young. And many of them are women.
The leaders we need are not those prone to barking rules and pronouncements that give the impression of strength and certainty, but unlikely leaders. Those who shape cultures and defy expectations by living their lives honestly and setting ethical standards in every decision made and action taken.
As global societal conditions morph, various unsavoury schemes underpinning predatory capitalism become more visible (and less acceptable) to greater numbers of people, and society’s values shift from an emphasis on industrial growth and competition to a steady-state economy and universal collaboration, the image of the macho sociopathic CEO will fade and eventually become extinct. We can only wait and welcome such a passing given the damage they have wreaked.
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Richard David Hames is a Philosopher-Activist, Strategic Futurist, Mentor and Author
Executive Chairman of The Hames Group, President of the Asian Foresight Institute. Richard works internationally as an adviser to governments and with many of the world’s most innovative and entrepreneurial business corporations.
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The houses on Estate Bolivia are integrated into nature, making them completely immerse into the greenery. The building speed is determined by the need for (affordable) housing.
In the coming ten years, an average of 95 houses will be built each year. Due to the structural shortage of affordable mid-range housing, there is an insufficient flow going from social housing, which is why some new families need to wait for years until they qualify for a home. Because of that, affordable mid-range buy- and rental houses are built on Estate Bolivia.
“In order not to damage the Estate’s character, it was decided to develop various small-scale residential clusters”
In order not to damage the Estate’s character, it was decided to develop various small-scale residential clusters. These clusters will only be situated in areas where the landscape has a low natural value. Because nature is a leading factor in the allotment of the area, the neighborhoods will have a playful appearance, without straight roads or monotonous houses. Because there will be no high-rise buildings, the views of the area will be unaffected. In order to stimulate nature even further, it was decided that 60% of each lot would remain untouched as part of the natural landscape. Actively stimulating and planting native species ensures that the residential areas contribute to the restoration of the endangered dry tropical forest. The residential clusters will have over half of their surface area consisting of natural greenery.
The new houses meet the highest demands in the field of sustainability. The energy needs are met by solar and wind energy. The buildings will be built smartly, so that less energy is needed to keep the inside of the houses comfortably cooled. Rainwater is stored in a reservoir underneath the houses to be reused.
Other subjects
Growth while preserving nature and culture
Read more
Nature comes first
Read more
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A Mecca for eco-tourists
Read more
Bolivia Estate is being developed by
Bonaire Properties N.V., with as a starting point an optimal balance between preservation and recovery of nature and cultural heritage, housing, agriculture and recreation.
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Award is a joint charitable initiative of the Albertson’s Foundation and the Entertainment Industry Foundation to provide school breakfast meals.
ROSEVILLE, CA — The Placer Food Bank is excited to have receive a $23,335.88 grant from Hunger Is, a joint charitable initiative of the Albertsons Companies Foundation and the Entertainment Industry Foundation, to fight hunger in our community. The generous grant will be used to provide breakfast meals in Placer Food Bank’s School Back Pack program at three area schools.
“This gift will go a long way in the battle against childhood hunger,” said Placer Food Bank Executive Director Dave Martinez. “We’re fortunate to have supporters like the Albertso
n’s Foundation and the Entertainment Industry Foundation who take an active role in this very important cause. Every child should have a healthy breakfast each and every day.”
Nearly 14,400 ( 1 in 5) children in Placer, El Dorado and Nevada counties live in food insecure households, meaning they do not know with certainty where their next meal will come from.
Most of these children rely on the meals provided by national school meal programs as their primary source of food. While many of us look forward to the weekend with anticipation, these children regard the weekend with anxiety and apprehension. What will they eat over the weekend?
The Back Pack Program was created to provide these children with nutritious, easy-to-prepare food for weekends and holidays when school is not in session. We assemble and distribute 935 packages of child-friendly snacks and meals each week to several high-need schools in the Roseville City, Western Placer and Auburn School Districts. The packages are distributed to the students on Friday afternoons, who then tuck them into their backpacks before they head home for the weekend.
The three schools that will be included in the distribution of this added program will be First Street, Woodbridge and Rock Creek Elementary
The $23,335.88 Hunger Is grant is one of many that will be awarded from funds collected through an annual month-long fundraiser at more than 2,300 Albertsons Companies’ Albertsons, Safeway,
Vons, Jewel-Osco, Shaw’s, ACME Markets, Tom Thumb, Randalls, Pavilions, Star Market,Carrs and other stores. Since its 2014 inception, Hunger Is has raised more than $20 million to support hunger relief programs throughout the country.
This year’s Hunger Is “Hungry for More” campaign highlighted the importance of daily breakfast for children. With the money raised, Hunger Is will meet its goal of providing five million breakfasts this year to children in need.
Placer Food Bank is the leader hunger relief charity in Placer, El Dorado and Nevada counties. The organization serves as the primary food collection and distribution center for hunger relie
f efforts in the area distributing fresh and non-perishable food to the hungry through a network of local charitable organizations located within the three nearby counties. Placer Food Bank is the only local hunger relief organization, and just one of 210 food banks nationwide, to be a certified member of Feeding American, the nation’s leading domestic hunger-relief charity. Placer Food Bank is also a proud member of the California Association of Food Banks.
While Placer Food Bank has distribution sites in numerous areas, the organization is headquartered at 8284 Industrial Avenue in Roseville, 95678 and can be reached at (916) 783-0481 or online at www.placerfoodbank.org where you can learn more about hunger statistics in our area through their various resources and those provided through Feeding America.
Monday-Friday - 8:00am - 4:00pm
Saturday & Sunday - closed
Our Mission: To sustain communities by nourishing families experiencing food insecurity, educating the community about hunger, while advocating for hunger relief.
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Swapping depleted battery modules for new ones can fully charge an electric vehicle in 10 minutes, as long as the vehicle is built to use Ample's own batteries.
Silicon Valley startup Ample is testing out a few battery swapping stations in California's Bay Area for fleet drivers.
The company says that its stations can swap out a vehicle's specially built battery modules and packs in 10 minutes.
Ample says that it's working with five automakers, without saying which ones, to build vehicles with battery structures that work with the company's battery-swapping stations.
One of the roadblocks to EV adoption is that charging an electric vehicle takes longer than refueling a vehicle with gasoline. Silicon Valley startup Ample believes it has figured out how to reclaim those lost moments: with its modular battery-swapping system that permits drivers to get fresh range in only a few minutes. The twist compared to many previous battery-swapping ideas is that instead of replacing one large single battery, the system instead replaces multiple smaller battery packs during a swap. It's hoping the ability to recharge an EV in just 10 minutes will appeal to fleets, and its first customers will be Uber drivers.
At its facility in San Francisco, a beta tester driving a Nissan Leaf pulls into one of several Ample battery-swapping stations peppered throughout the Bay Area. The station is roughly the size of two parking spots and tall enough to handle large SUVs and the coming wave of electric trucks. The Leaf driver gets out and, using Ample's smartphone app, initiates the swap procedure. Metal plates under the wheels lift up the Nissan from the floor, and an automated sled slides out from the front of the station. The sled removes a series of battery packs from under the vehicle. Within each container is a series of battery modules roughly the size of a bread box. After being detached from the Leaf, each container is whisked back into the hidden portion of the station where the modules are removed and placed on a shelf to begin charging. The system then places charged modules into the container. The sled then slides itself back under the Nissan Leaf, and replaces the packs that were removed.
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The entire demonstration of the process took roughly 15 minutes, a beta-testing speed that Ample said is slower than it's capable of. As the beta progresses, that time will be shortened to 10 minutes, with a target to complete the entire procedure in five minutes by the end of the year.
This system is intended for fleet vehicles. While the average personal EV is likely to be charged at home overnight and is on the road for less than 100 miles a day, delivery vehicles, taxis, and vehicles used for ride-hailing services such as Uber need to be constantly on the road, and DC fast charging that takes upward of 45 minutes to replenish an EV's battery is lost revenue.
But creating a battery swap infrastructure requires partners in the automotive world. Ample's not in the business of swapping out factory-installed battery packs with their own system. The company will need to have automakers build special-purpose fleet vehicles set up to accept Ample's battery packs and be ready to start using the startup's system from day one. CEO Khaled Hassounah told Car and Driver that the startup is already working with "five of the 10 largest [automakers] in the world," without giving names.
Currently, the company is focusing on fleet vehicles and deploying its stations in additional Bay Area locations. Long term, it's investigating offering its service to the general public. If it catches on with automakers, the time spent waiting at a charging station to top up a vehicle's battery may come to an end as we replace cables with tiny robotic sleds whizzing around under our vehicles to get us back on the road.
This content is imported from OpenWeb. You may be able to find the same content in another format, or you may be able to find more information, at their web site.
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book
1. Sadly, the greatest points to be afraid are the many deceptive invention firms that claim to supply aid. The trouble is so prevalent that there is a real law that prohibits companies from deceptive clients in the way that they so frequently do. Although this legislation has assisted to go after some of these scam business, fraud in the innovation service is still an epidemic, go here https://thriveglobal.com/stories/the-six-steps-to-sell-your-invention/ for invent help.
2. Realize when a business wishes to sell you an online model. An online prototype is not the same as a physical prototype. A virtual model is just a visual depiction of your concept. There is no real method of figuring out if the idea actually works.
3. The truth is that it is incredibly uncommon to generate income from a concept only or from a virtual prototype. It is nearly difficult to land a licensing agreement (somebody interested in purchasing your product) unless they initially see a physical, functioning prototype that they can feel, touch and also play around with.
4. You need to do a patent search before starting to work with a model. Not only will you find out if your invention idea is currently out there, yet you will certainly obtain valued information to make sure that you might be able to change the item sufficient and also still have a legitimate and patentable brand-new innovation.
5. A truly usual mistake is to create a patent immediately after doing a patent search. You should wait to initially have a working prototype before creating your patent.
6. Bear in mind, your new product concept needs to be head as well as shoulders much better than anything else in its classification. The marketplace is crowded with products, and for your own to stand out, it must have that unique "X-Factor".
7. It is best to obtain an independent viewpoint regarding the possibilities of success for your brand-new item idea. Yet that to talk to? A patent lawyer will only inform you if your suggestion is unique sufficient to obtain a patent. A style designer will just inform you the best method to make your product. You ought to get a professional assessment from a trusted company that recognizes advertising and marketing, producing expenses in addition to the simplicity of entrance into the industry. The evaluators would consider all the variables to see if there are any aspects of your concept that would make it tough to offer. This would provide you an honest assessment regarding whether it makes good sense to proceed with your task.
8. Most firms that advertise to innovators make their loan from directly from billing creators and also not from royalties or sales of item. Beware of business that desire cash in advance for certifying your suggestion, or for "offering your idea to sector." Those elegant internet site and marketing projects have actually been spent for by innovators like you who provided loan in the hopes of having something good occur with their item. It is ALRIGHT to pay for a professional evaluation, for item invention (if you need some assistance in creating a functioning model), and for patent work, but various other non-tangible solutions must be taken a look at carefully.
9. Attempt to check out the success price of the company you are considering collaborating with. Look into their BBB rating. It must be an A or A+.
10. Although it is essential to be mindful when speaking about your concept, be careful that you are not as well mindful and quit yourself from obtaining the necessary details and help. If, as an example you are speaking to a store vendor inquiring if they've seen something like your idea, be as vague as feasible. If, rather, you are speaking with a patent attorney or a InventHelp Reviews business, sign an easy non-disclosure contract prior to sharing your suggestion and after that move on with it. Remember that it takes a big initiative to develop as well as make an item. Lots of people are too active to take your concept as well as invest the thousands of hrs and also hundreds of dollars to create it.
11. It is essential to have some kind of unique ownership of your product before starting to negotiate a licensing agreement. One of the most protected way to secure your idea from being stolen is to file a design or utility patent. Your other best protection is maintaining a dated, outlined and also bound journal revealing the progress of your concept. Sign each page as well as have an additional individual date and also sign each web page as well.
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Our goal is to make divorce and family law as simple as possible by giving you the tools to find a solution. We do this through collaborative law, mediation and using compromise driven legal options.
Our offices are conveniently located just off I-5 in Seattle, Tacoma and Olympia and we are available throughout the week from 8 am to 7 pm and on Saturdays from 10 am to 2 pm. However, we answer calls 24/7 and are available anytime for urgent matters.
Is a truce right for you?
Attorney
Justin grew up listening to courtroom tales told by his grandfather, a Helena, Montana defense attorney. Inspired by those stories, he became a Washington State licensed lawyer in 2012. While practicing he felt there was a better way for many to experience the family law system, which led him to launch Truce Law. Justin focuses on making the divorce process as simple as possible, by giving clients the tools they need to find an agreed solution. He is a collaboratively trained attorney as well as a certified mediator.
Outside the office you can find Justin at Cafe Mox playing his favorite game, Commander, the best version of Magic: The Gathering. He spent his last birthday spey fishing for steelhead in Oregon and this year his personal goal is to shoot par in a round of golf. This goal is years in the making, which began when he worked high school summers hauling bags as a caddy at Aldarra Golf Club.
Justin graduated from the Seattle University School of Law as a Washington State Scholar, a scholarship awarded to the top 1% of the applicant pool. Prior to law school, he earned an undergraduate degree in finance and marketing from the University of Washington. For fun, he recently completed a year long certificate program at the UW in Popular Fiction Writing.
Justin volunteers time as a mediator with the Snohomish County Dispute Resolution Center and in the Arlington small claims court. He's also provided legal services at the Union Gospel Mission's legal clinic and through the Washington State Bar Association's Moderate Means Program.
Collaborative Divorce, Uncontested Family Law Issues, Mediation
Attorney
John is a dedicated and skilled advocate and has appeared in just about every county in Western Washington. A reader from an early age, John learned that everyone has a story to tell, and everyone has a right to have their voice heard. He enjoys working collaboratively with clients to identify goals and face legal challenges and he strongly believes that trust is central to a lawyer client relationship.
When he’s not battling it out in the courtroom, John spends his time listening to music and playing guitar. He enjoys rock, funk, and blues, but recently he’s been working on his jazz chops on a classical nylon string guitar. You can also find him hiking all over the Washington Cascades on most weekends and he’d love to eventually conquer Mt. Adams, Mt. Baker, and Mt. Rainier.
John was born and raised here in Washington State. After studying business and music at Gonzaga University. John moved back to Seattle and worked at the law firm of Ryan, Swanson & Cleveland on real estate and civil litigation. After graduating from Seattle University School of Law, John continued working in private practice, successfully litigating cases involving employment discrimination, workers’ compensation, and real estate litigation. His trial work grew to include the most serious felony charges and he has won acquittals and not guilty verdicts in Superior Courts throughout Washington State and court martials in the United States Army Trial Judiciary.
Prior to life as a paralegal, Barb got a break from her job as a retail manager when called for jury duty on a two week asbestos trial. From that point on she was hooked on the law and how courtrooms work. She received a small inheritance from her grandmother and enrolled in one of the few paralegal schools that existed in the early 90s. After graduating, she was immediately hired as a paralegal/office manager because of her prominent leadership skills. Barb’s passion lies with helping people through the legal system compassionately and efficiently no matter what the area of law.
With four blackbelts in four different styles, Barb spends her spare time teaching both adults and children martial arts and life skills. When she is not chasing the kids around the mat, she is chasing her daughter around the kitchen as they experiment making new and exciting dishes from all corners of the world.
Barb became a certified paralegal through the National Academy for Paralegal Studies with a 4.0, received her Bachelor’s in Legal Studies from Kaplan University graduating Cumma Sum Laude, and received her Executive Juris Doctorate from Concord Law School at Purdue University Global. She has spent the past 30 years as a litigation paralegal in a wide variety of areas of law both plaintiff and defendant so she brings a tremendous amount of knowledge and experience to the table.
When Barb is not litigating, she tours local dojos and dojangs teaching a six-week women’s self-defense program. She also volunteers at the local Salvation Army assembling and distributing food boxes to recipients.
Discovery, Court Processes, Client Support
Legal Assistant
Prisca grew up in Johannesburg, South Africa (Joburg for short) and was raised by the many medical professionals in her family. Their selflessness was and continues to inspire her. Before Truce Law, Prisca worked as an emergency dispatcher for a non-profit company for over four years. Working in a high-stress environment, Prisca would field calls from people in emergencies and send vehicles to home invasions, burglaries, and medical crises.
In her free time, Prisca is often found having dance parties with her daughter and singing nursery rhymes to put her son to sleep. She and her daughter enjoy baking healthy alternatives to popular treats. If you’re interested, she’ll share how to replace butter with coconut oil to bake the best brownies. When the children are happily dreaming, Prisca and her husband are either binge-watching Stranger Things on Netflix or trying to reach the next checkpoint before a Clicker gets to Ellie on The Last of Us.
She’s studied Biochemistry and Human Physiology at the University of Johannesburg and plans to return next year to finish her degree and join the medical field like the rest of her family.
Prior to university, Prisca volunteered at a local orphanage, a state-run hospital, and participated in various community fundraisers. To better assist when volunteering, she acquired a certificate in Home-Based Care for children and the elderly. Even today she’ll collect toys and clothes for the local orphanage every few months.
Being an avid traveler and explorer, Elyn moved from Montana to Italy at age 15 as an exchange student, traveled to Japan at 17 as student ambassador for the State of Montana, and circumnavigated the world with Semester at Sea before she was 21. Elyn took this interest of people, places and the beauty she found the world over, and distilled it into a career of business, education and mentorship gaining an MBA and a Master’s in Teaching. Her passion is being a conduit between problems and solutions, guiding people through possibilities to find the best outcome (in the most Pareto Efficient way possible).
Elyn lives aboard her 33-foot sailboat with her two daughters in the San Juan Islands in Washington State. She loves exploring the natural world, her local library, and is currently working to get her private pilot’s license. She enjoys cruising the Inside Passage and South East Alaska, and recently returned from an epic 5,000-mile road trip to the Canadian Arctic.
Elyn holds an MBA in Sustainable Business from Bainbridge Graduate Institute and a Master’s in Teaching from Seattle Pacific University. Combining these two interests, Elyn became one of the only public-school teachers in Washington State certified to teach social and environmental sustainability. She believes, however, the best education is not in the classroom, and has dedicated her career to guiding people, and businesses, to finding efficiencies and alignment of right livelihood: how to create profit without compromising values or creating harm.
Elyn has sat on the boards as chair and co-chair for high impact nonprofits, as well as provided services to small businesses as a pro-bono consultant for sustainability. She believes that the more you give, the more you can receive. She is currently co-creating a non-profit to help remote indigenous youth gain access to modern watercraft such as SUP, sail and kayaks.
A focus on solutions will make the family law process better
We felt few law firms promoted finding an agreement first, so we chose to make that our mission. Our attorneys and staff feel coming to a truce is the best way to approach most family issues and we communicate that to our clients.
When you agree to terms, you'll save thousands of dollars in legal fees you would have spent to argue in court. You'll benefit from a private process resolved outside a public courtroom. Plus, you'll maintain control of the outcome by reaching a fair agreement on your terms.
Over 90% of divorce cases settle out of court, so we approach divorce and family law with compromise in mind. Whether you hire us for mediation, collaborative divorce, or a specific family issue, we believe you'll save money, experience less stress, and have more control of the outcome than you would with a traditional process.
get in touch
You may have heard us during Mariners games, where we've been a proud Seattle Mariners radio sponsor since 2018. Listen to learn more about us.
If you are still able to work together and looking to part ways amicably, then I suggest giving Truce Law a call. Save time, headaches, and money.
Not only was I kept informed with updates throughout the process in a timely fashion he consistently offered a caring and patient approach.
Seattle, WA
Exactly what and who I needed to help me. He is very knowledgeable, professional and the attention he gave me was unprecedented.
Work with an attorney who understands the benefits of finding an agreement first. Our collaborative process can save you thousands and help you move on peacefully.
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“For us, a drought means human misery, economic devastation to some natural assets and certainly an unproductive living standard for the majority of our people,” said California state senator Jean Fuller (R), who represents the Central Valley. With the state’s rainfall hitting record lows in 2013, California’s drought is a pressing issue in this election year. The shortage will be felt most by farmers in the San Joaquin Valley, and while many fields have been converted to water-conserving drip irrigation, “there’s still a large percentage of crops in California that are irrigated by flood irrigation,” according to Matt Weiser, senior writer at The Sacramento Bee. But conservation can’t be limited to agriculture – all sectors need to recognize that water is a limited resource, according to state senator Lois Wolk (D). "If you tie the amount of water to the price, you create an immediate incentive for conservation," Wolk said. Experts debate management and policy opportunities as California faces its third year of drought.
Lois Wolk, California State Senator (D-Davis)
Speakers at this Event
California State Senator (R-Bakersfield)
Senator, California State Senate (D-Davis)
Senior Writer, The Sacramento Bee
Greg Dalton: Welcome everyone. Thanks for joining us on this sunny, dry day in San Francisco. Climate One is a conversation about energy, economy and the environment. We connect ideas and people. And hopefully you will also make some connections with people in the audience today and talk about water here in California. I'm Greg Dalton. And today at Climate One we’re talking about California’s drought and the future of freshwater in our parched state. 2013 was the driest calendar year on record. The reservoirs around the state look like puddles. As we record this program in mid January, snow levels in the Sierra Nevada are 20 percent of normal signaling water stress into 2015 even if big rains come this year. Over the next hour, we will discuss California’s water crunch, what individuals can do and how the state can balance competing needs for energy and water. We will talk about immediate measures to keep California’s people and economy hydrated and happy and long term solutions to the water impacts of an increasingly volatile climate driven by our addiction to fossil fuels. Our conversation will include questions from our live audience here at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco.
Joining us are California State Senator, Jean Fuller, Republican from Bakersfield, California State Senator, Lois Wolk, Democrat from Davis, and Matt Weiser, senior writer who covers water for the Sacramento Bee. Please welcome them to Climate One.
Senator Fuller, welcome. Let's begin with you. How is the water drought affecting your constituents down there in the Central Valley?
Jean Fuller: Well, we are an example of the statewide problem that reliable water is becoming more difficult to obtain.
By reliable water I mean water that is delivered at the expected and needed amount throughout the year, not just at certain seasons. And we know that there needs to be a statewide solution to improve the delivery of reliable water. But in the last drought, we had 30 percent unemployment in most of our farm towns, especially a lot of farm workers, and we followed a lot of our crops and we were unable to deliver the groceries to the cities that we -- the products that we normally would deliver. And so for us, a drought means human misery, economic devastation to some natural assets, and certainly an unproductive living standard for the majority of our people especially those who are most closest to the edge of their ability to earn money.
Greg Dalton: Senator Wolk, how is it affecting your district, the drought in California right now?
Lois Wolk: Well, I represent four of the five delta counties in the Sacramento Region. And these counties, I'm sure you've been reading in the paper, the reservoirs, the water agencies have been reducing the amount of water that's going to be available and urging conservation of up to 20 to 30 percent. So many of the reservoirs are declining and the snow pack is at the lowest level, I believe, in quite a long time. So there's a great deal of concern about the implications of the drought for the region, for industry, for agriculture and for the urban communities.
Greg Dalton: Matt Weiser, you've been covering water for a long time. Put this in perspective, California is used to having periods that are dry and not so dry, how significant is this in the broader historic content?
Matt Weiser: Well, what I'm hearing from a lot of the water experts is that this is comparable -- the dryness is comparable to what we saw in 1976, ’77 which is the second driest period in California history. The driest stretch we had was in the 20’s but ’76,’77 was the worst drought in modern times. And they're saying right now it's comparable to that. The striking thing about that is that they're saying that in the middle of winter when water demand is at its lowest. So the concern is what happens when we get into summer? Is it going to be worse than ’77? How are we going to manage that if it's as dry as it is now with very few storms forecast as far out as they can see? Lots of people are wondering how they're going to manage. The ’77 drought was kind of like the nightmare scenario that everyone remembers in the water community, and they hope to never see another one. And now they're afraid they're going to see one that's worse than that.
Greg Dalton: Senator Wolk, what is California’s plan for dealing with this drought that could be of historic proportion?
Lois Wolk: I believe the Governor, in his State of the State, made it very clear that he's watching this very closely. He has a drought response -- he's convened a drought response group, I think. The possibility of a drought declaration which has a number of impacts is in front of us and in the budget. There are several areas that he wants to focus on. I think what a drought like this gives us the opportunity for is the opportunity to manage our existing water supplies in a better way and to institute the kinds of changes in the near term that might make it possible for us to stretch that existing supply that we have and use it in a better fashion.
So that would include the kinds of things like recycling, focusing on the condition of our groundwater, reuse and conservation, and as well as looking towards increasing, assuming it rains quickly and soon in the next several years, that we have ability to store the water that does fall and make better use of it.
Greg Dalton: Senator Fuller, what would you like to see the state and federal government do?
Jean Fuller: Well, my statewide perspective, not just my district perspective which is a little different, but today I would like them to review the regulations to respond to the emergency that's arising because of the drought, and update those regulations that are going to make us have techniques of government that respond from the past as situations are becoming more frequent, this is our second drought in the last ten years. We’re in the third of this drought. And do something that would continue to help us get through. And I think that's sort of the intent of the Governor’s taskforce. I sent a letter with several others and many other people around the state did. And he responded that he has an emergency preparedness, the food and ag, the Environmental Protection Agency and some others working together to do that. For tomorrow, I would like to have us consider that there are some ways that we can re-plumb the state. Right now our plumbing is 50 percent behind our population, in other words, when we did the plumbing for the state water system, we've grown 50 percent.
We have not used any new technology. We have not really provided any new infrastructure. And if we start right now, that's probably still 15 years away. So I would like to see us continue with the water package from 2009. And the last part of that water package was -- and the intermediate part of that is the BDCP’s comment period. I hope everyone engages in that.
Greg Dalton: That's the Bay Delta Conservation Plan, a plan for restoring the Delta and the Bay.
Jean Fuller: Yes. And the last piece is the bond that’s slated to come up in November. And that would provide money for habitat restoration in the Delta and reliable water storage.
Greg Dalton: Let's talk about that because there are some talk about whether the bonds has been on the ballot, they're being kicked down the can down the road several times for fear that the voters might not approve $11 billion. Now they've been paired down to $6 billion. Has the prospect for those bonds improved if there's a drought because voters will throw money at the problem or there are some concern that the Governor may not support it? Senator Fuller.
Jean Fuller: Well, I'm smiling very largely because I was one of the people, as was Lois, that worked very hard, we spent many, many nights working on what our water package should look like. The first part of the water package BDCP passed and went through the other part didn’t have enough financial backing to survive on the bond so we all agreed to put it over. But now with Sacramento being what we are, we’re thinking about how could we change that bond. And so that's what's sort of being kicked around; either the bond stays at the same amount it is now in November or we do some new legislation that changes the bond for a number of reasons. So that's more of the discussion about the future building our water future is how do we work with that bond and the funding.
Lois Wolk: At least more like $6 billion, and that's probably high.
$11 billion is out of the question. I think the people of the State of California and all of the polling has shown that people of the State of California are very, very leery of bonds. And whether or not the Governor will be willing to put anything on the ballot in November is really up to him and the legislature to decide. And we don’t have a decision yet. I believe that we do need a water bond. We need it for the near term kinds of actions that water districts are looking for throughout the state to diversify and strengthen their regional portfolio with respect to water. I think that a bond can have nothing to do with the tunnels and the BDCP and the grandiose plans that will never come about in the next 10 to 15 years. I think we need to focus very clearly on the kinds of things that water agencies are looking for and that people will support, and that has to do with recycling, cleaning up ground water, and that will make a difference in terms of drought and will make a difference in terms of water management. Those are the kinds of things that have a chance of getting voter support. Consensus-based, nothing to do with tunnels and the BDCP and things that are practical, workable, affordable and that frankly, we need at the local level regionally throughout the state to manage our water supply in a better way.
Greg Dalton: Senator Fuller, let's get you on that, the tunnels, grandiose plans?
Jean Fuller: The way I like to look at this is in 2009 all the legislature who worked very, very hard together, all the regions of the state and basically the deal that we came up with which none of us liked because it was a huge compromise which is what's good for California in the end, came up with coequal goals.
Those coequal goals were that we all agree that we need reliable water for Californians, but the thing that made the deal was that it's both supported native habitat and a healthy economy. And we agreed that there would be public moneys, and that's the bond, to pay for public improvements, and then there would be rate payer moneys to pay for, for example, the tunnel, most of the delivery system, quite a bit of the mitigation. And so from my perspective, in a climate change environment where we know that we have more threats from fire drought and saltwater intrusion than we've even had, we need to use some science to have some very good planning about what those public benefits are because the public has to be willing to pay for it, and understand what those are and agree, I agree with that part. And we need to be very clear that the rate payers must be charged as beneficiaries.
Greg Dalton: Okay. Matt Weiser, let's get you on this in terms of there are some different approaches to the bonds, some are more Delta-centric, some favour other parts of the state. How do you see the politics of that playing out in this election year with a governor who is eyeing re-election?
Matt Weiser: Well, the original bond was sort of like a pork barrel for everybody. It got on the ballot in the first place because it included a little bit of something for every part of the state. It was mainly a water bond but it included a lot of other things, habitat related, parks projects even that's why it was so big. If it ends up being smaller -- a lot is going to depend on what's in it. As Lois mentioned, there's controversy about whether it ought to include money for the Delta tunnels.
There's also never ending controversy about new dams. There was money in the original bond to pay for dams but only if local governments, local water agencies put up money first for a local dam project. So whether a bond will have success this election year, it depends on what's in it. I do think it may have better chances in the drought year because people will be thinking about water. They might be less likely to even pay attention to what's in the bond when they vote on it. But with a bond that size and as much debt as the state has already, it's going to be important to pay attention to what's in there.
Greg Dalton: Let's talk about agriculture. Senator Fuller, about 60 to 80 percent of the water used in the state is for agriculture. A lot of gains have been made there yet there’s still flood irrigation that happens in the Central Valley. Is ag doing enough to use water wisely?
Jean Fuller: Well, what I would like to say about that is, first of all, that the San Joaquin Valley doesn’t use all the water. In fact, the communities around the Bay Area, Alameda County, Santa Cruz County and several others, rely on about 50 percent of their water supply from the Central Valley and the state water project. So there is farming in those areas and they rely on it as well. So I will only speak to my half because rice and some of those crops, there’s not a lot of drip irrigation that you can do. But in my area, I have seen the crops completely changed from potatoes and cotton which are real crops, to trees and nuts. As you drive down the Valley, I think you're all seeing more of the drip irrigation vines, grapevines conversion.
Now, is that enough? No. Technology is always going to have to continue to improve and continue to find ways to use more recycled water. But recycled water conservation are really good for farmers and they work very hard to get those kinds of things because it's an economic value to them. It makes it cheaper for them to raise their crops. Unfortunately, it is not new water. And as you recycle, you lose water, you lose some portion of the water. So for us, agriculture has actually like doubled sort of their efficiency in my area because they've been able to change the kind of crops that they grow. But across California, we are not the whole picture. And across California, I'm not sure if that's the same. And can they do more? Always. As long as we support research in science, they will take that research in science because it makes it more economically feasible for them to raise their crops.
Greg Dalton: The value of California agriculture has gone up with water use about the same in part because there are more pistachios, higher value nuts and higher margin products. Senator Wolk, is ag doing enough?
Lois Wolk: To think about California water and managing our water wisely is that every sector has to be using every drop recognizing that it is a limited resource. Of course it's important for ag and for that multibillion dollar industry that feeds us and that feeds the rest of the country and the world to have water that's available and at a reasonable price. That means they, as well as the urban areas, as well industry, as well as the fish, when you're in this kind of situation with a drought, you need to take very good care of each drop.
So it's really important to conserve no matter where you are, no matter which sector of the economy. This is for all of us, it's not just one area.
Greg Dalton: Matt Weiser, let's get on that and then we’ll talk about Southern California which is in LA but first on agriculture and water in terms of low-hanging fruit, pardon the pun, to be better with water.
Matt Weiser: Well, I agree with the others that ag has gotten a lot more efficient. However, there are still a large percentage of crops in California that are irrigated by flood irrigation. Some of those crops require it like rice, but there are others that could still be switched over to drip irrigation or sprinklers even but there's still a high percentage that's flood irrigated.
Greg Dalton: And what's stopping those farmers from moving where they could from flood to drip? Is it the cost? Is it just culture?
Matt Weiser: I've been told one of the big ones is cost. It's costly to change a field over to drip irrigation. And I've been told that one of the things that would help is some kind of grants or low interest loans to help farmers do that. So that's a bit of low-hanging fruit, I think.
Jean Fuller: And if I can just mention real quick, because there was a 5 percent allocation for the state water contractors this year which means they would get 5 percent of the 100 percent of water that they've already paid for, and they only even get 5 percent, farmers in my area will not be able to get loans from the bank at this time so this will be not a conversion year unless we do something else because they're not even able to get loans proceed on a 5 percent water allocation. You can see why a bank would be hesitant if they weren’t going to get water. And even for permanent crops that use less water, the future is a little murky because they’re not very interested in trying to give any kind of loans to agriculture at this time.
Lois Wolk: I was going to say that with respect to agriculture conservation, one of the areas that the bond could certainly help with would be these kinds of financial incentives for ag conservation. They've existed before and I think it's important to try and replenish some of those funds because that efficiency is important.
Greg Dalton: If you're just joining us, we’re talking about California’s drought at Climate One. Our guests are California State Senator, Lois Wolk, California State Senator, Jean Fuller, and Matt Weiser, reporter from the Sacramento Bee. I'm Greg Dalton.
Let's talk about the fish versus food tension and how the water crisis this year in California is going to play out and that struggle, Senator Fuller, between the Delta and the farm areas and the fish and food.
Jean Fuller: Remembering that I come from the Central Valley and that perspective has a little different perspective which is they want to maintain the same contract that we’ve had for water over the last four years I’m going to move to the next point. As a member of the legislature and as a person with a Ph.D., I eventually realized that we were going to have to have co-equal goals and those co-equal goals are both habitat restoration and a healthy economy and water for people. So that to me was the strength of the 2009 water package, was that if those two goals fell apart then there would be no package. But if those two goals stay together what it meant was that there was $3 billion for habitat restoration and nothing for tunnels but to make the flows more like they were so that the native ecosystem would be maintained, and that there would be 3 billion for storage and that storage would then give reliable water because when you store water, just like your bank account, then you can let it out a little bit all year long.
But then as Matt said, the legislature being the legislature, there were then other needs and then there were other concerns. And other needs were things such as disadvantaged communities that weren’t maybe close to the pipe that have water recycling issues that they needed to attack and so then there is money in there for that. And then there were concerns which were more secondary such as educating people about conserving water or the financial impact of putting water options and tools such as dams or no dams or taking them out and that became and called the port. And it’s a little hard for all of us to identify ports since if it’s ours we don’t think it is.
So we could get to six if we didn’t have other needs and other concerns.
Greg Dalton: So everybody wants to have what they have had than used to having in recent years, cities, farmers, et cetera, but climate science would say, “We’re all going to have to get by with less and we’re going to give something up. We can’t have what we’ve had the last few years.” And that’s not really sinking in.
Jean Fuller: Well, I think it’s sinking in. I think the legislature finally in 2009 recognized that drought really pushes over plus the levy collapse in New Orleans they’re based on the TV, all levies need help, that there can be those kinds of risks and some of the stressors like we’ve cleaned up the water in the American River with the sewer plants a lot better and we’ve done a lot of governance work around the edges. But what we still have to face is the hardest questions: funding and jurisdiction. And those are written out once but it’s been a couple of years now and so people will look at them again in terms of with today’s circumstances
Greg Dalton: Senator Wolk, I want to get you on that point in terms of we’re not quite capturing the reality that we’re going to deal with less water in California and there’s a lot more water on paper than there is in reality.
Lois Wolk: That's absolutely true. And I think one of the more useless kinds of debates is fish versus farm, fish versus food. That doesn’t advance the conversation. That, in fact, stops the conversation. Everybody goes to their corner and continues the fight that is going on in California water forever and will continue which is why I said at the beginning, the drought gives us an opportunity, I think, to focus on how we manage our current supply and how to devise for the next two to five years, near-term, the kinds of things that will improve our management of the water supply, perhaps even increase the reliability of the existing water supply as well, and move this debate forward and fund those things without the kinds of debates that are fish versus food. It doesn’t help us. And I think the same thing is true with the tunnels and the BDCP.
The problem with the tunnels is they have taken -- it's like walking into a room and there’s this giant elephant in the room. Instead of talking about the kinds of things that are being done at the local level that are really effective, including storage, underground and above ground, recycling, desalination, the kinds of things that water districts throughout the state want state assistance for, we go into these rooms where all we’re talking about is fighting about these two giant tunnels that will never be affordable. The price is now $54 billion. Really, let's get real. Let's do something that we can all agree on that we need which is to fund those kinds of important management tools that we know can be used at the local level and that make a difference in every region of the state.
Greg Dalton: Senator, that's a Delta perspective. Let's have a...
Lois Wolk: It's not just a Delta perspective. I object to that.
Jean Fuller: I agree with most of what my colleague has said. She is a respected water expert and actually precedes me, and I have a great deal of respect for her opinion. But my perspective that comes from my advocacy for my constituents is that climate change or something is making us have droughts more regularly than we've had in the past. And we all need to get real, all of us, not just the legislature but all of us, about how do we plan for the water in the future. And the tunnels are not being paid for with the bond, and they are rate payer money because it's beneficiaries. So it comes down to this, that all the people who want to increase the water over the current level, if there can be new water available, which means new storage, then those people have to pay. And what will pay for that is whether the economics pencil out or not. And frankly, my area farmers are very worried and they're not 100 percent behind some of the 2009 water package than they have to because they are the most worried that it won't pencil out for them. Frankly, Los Angeles who only requires 30 percent of this water supply as compared to 50 percent in the Bay Area and 80 percent for the Livermore area, they have other alternatives to mix cheaper water with it, and they have a huge rate payer’s base to spread the fees over.
And so even though it is a huge amount, it is possible for them to do that because it is less expensive than, for example, desalination which is another way to get new water.
Greg Dalton: Senator Wolk, should Los Angeles do more? We haven’t talked yet about the Southland, big water user. What's your view on that?
Lois Wolk: I have found that many of the Southern California retail agencies, the actual agencies that deliver the water to people, have been instituting conservation in a pretty dramatic way because the cost of their water is far higher than ours. And I would like to be able to talk about pricing in a separate issue because I think it's really important about water. But I think San Diego water authority, these places that import so much of their water, recognize that they really do have to be very careful about using each drop of water carefully. Does that mean they shouldn't or can't be doing more? Of course they can and they must. And it is in fact what they're going to need to do no matter what happens with tunnels. My feeling is that the regional efforts that they can continue to make in conserving water and reusing water and desal and lots of other ways in reducing their reliance on the Delta, money is better put into those areas for them than it is in this Tunnel Boondoggle. Yes, they're going to have to pay but, my goodness, why would their raise their rates 30 percent for some tunnel that isn't going to yield them as much water as they have now?
Greg Dalton: In fact, Los Angeles has about a million more people than it did 20 years ago. They use the same amount of water that's actually -- as someone who grew up in Northern California, loving Southern California for their profligate water ways have been corrected and learned that it's different now. Matt Weiser, let's get you in on this in terms of the Southland and their role in the water politics of California.
Matt Weiser: Well, as it happens, I spoke yesterday with Jeffrey Kightlinger who’s the general manager for The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. And the numbers are actually bigger than what you just described. Since the ’92, drought, they've reduced their water demand across the whole LA, San Diego metro area by something like 30 percent at the same time as they've added something like 5 million people. And they've done that because they've spent $3 billion on all kinds of storage projects. They built the largest reservoir in California in close to 50 years. They built a giant tunnel to move water into that reservoir faster when the water is available from the Delta among other places. And they built a whole bunch of groundwater storage projects where they can park water until they need it, then they move it into reservoirs.
And they pay a lot more for water in Southern California partly because they have to spend a lot of money to move it there but it's also because they've made these large investments. And we haven’t done quite the same thing in Northern California because we’re accustomed to having more water readily available in our rivers. And we’re finding out now that that's not going to be the case all the time. We can't say that this drought is related to climate change but I think it's indicative of what we might see in the years ahead because of climate change. And so we need to keep that mind as we deal with this drought year and plan for the next ones.
Greg Dalton: Matt Weiser is a writer with the Sacramento Bee. Our other guests here at Climate One today are Jean Fuller, California State Senator from Bakersfield, Republican, and Lois Wolk, California State Senator from Davis, a Democrat. I'm Greg Dalton.
Let's pick up on pricing. Senator Wolk, in electricity there's a move toward pricing based on time of day, based on demand. Dynamic pricing, we all pay that now for parking spots and tickets at the ballpark. Will we see dynamic pricing where the price will go up and down in California based on supply and marketing conditions.
Lois Wolk: I think we need to move in that direction. The connection between what one pays for water and what it cost to get it to you is really broken. We don’t have that connection. And I'm a firm believer in the ability of the market to moderate some of these, to reflect the value of a commodity. That being said, there are some things that we can learn from the electricity pricing arena. Tiers -- you use a whole lot of water. You pay more for it. And there should be a lifeline below which -- there's a certain unit or amount of water that is given just across the board and then beyond that, there are different tiers whether it's industry or agriculture.
I think we need to learn from that because one of the things -- if you tie the amount of water to the price, you create an immediate incentive for conservation just as you do with energy. I mean, we all talk about how to conserve energy, how to make our houses more energy efficient. I'm not sure we've had the same kind of focus and thrust with respect to water. Do we really, when we put in our landscaping, many of us do but do we really, all the time, when it's raining, do we really think about the best kind of energy are water efficient landscaping?
I suspect that when the drought goes away, we just kind of revert to the kind of plans that we've always loved. But we’re going to have to change -- the Governor said it wisely, “Conservation has to become a way of life”, and price and the pricing element is part of that. Very controversial.
Greg Dalton: Senator Fuller, dynamic pricing for water, how would the farmers in your district or county…
Jean Fuller: Well, actually most of Southern California really, including my farmers, have worked very, very hard on that, and pricing, in some way, does affect them. But here's an important thing to think about; with electricity, we can make it. It's more expensive but we can make it. So we can have a steady reliable flow because we can make it. It my cost more, we might those by cost. Water, if you have not -- new water, new freshwater, if you have not, capture snowmelt and then hold it somewhere, you don’t have it to sell, you just don’t have it. And that's what we’re facing now in this drought which is the symptom of the bigger problem for planning for planning.
And so, for example, from like mid valley down south, because it's a drier climate, we have already had to develop expensive water tools and water options and invest in those such as water banks and the pipe storage and alternate means and so on and so forth, and drip irrigation and recycling in a very big way. But the north has been more lucky. And so many communities in the north have direct stream supply. So now there's no snowball. I think Calistoga had 18 percent in their reservoir, I think San Louis had, you will have to help me, but I believe it was like close to 29 percent in their reservoir.
I believe that Folsom Lake had, I don’t know, 20 percent. Okay.
Greg Dalton: It's towards 17 now.
Jean Fuller: It's 17 now. Okay. Obviously, 100 percent is with the reserve. And when you get down below 50 percent, you are way beyond being able to help yourself by recycling and rationing. But they have no choice. Where are they going to get that water? Nobody can make that water. So Calistoga is already into, as I understand it but mandatory water rationing to try to save what they have. And the communities in the Napa Valley and below are already being hit because they don’t have reservoirs and there's no onsite storage up in the Sierras not enough to provide for them.
So pricing, it's happening by itself. The prices are going up astronomically all over but the residential area in Southern California doesn’t feel it as much because maybe at the end they'll have a $70 bigger bill. So that's why our farmers are not sure if they even let this bond because they don’t know if they can even afford to buy in any way to put infrastructure, and much less, if they were pricy. And why I think and why I'm here today because it's kind of scary to come up here, is to let Northern California know that Northern California is in trouble if climate change changes our needs for water creation and because there's only one way to create water, get rain water, snow water.
Greg Dalton: Well, thank you for being a Republican from the Central Valley, coming into south San Francisco you're in trouble because many Republicans won't even say that word. Matt Weiser, let's talk about the water restrictions that are going on already, the construction industry, hook ups, et cetera. Tell us about some of the things in place already.
Matt Weiser: Well, something I forgot to mention earlier about Southern California, amazingly, they are not anticipating any water rationing this year, no water conservation measures related to drought, that's because of the water they have in storage already which they've managed to put in storage with that large investment I mentioned. In the Sacramento area, it's a much different picture. We already have most of the municipal water agencies in the area have adapted, at least 20 percent request for conservation. And they've made it a request because, well, for a variety of reasons. One is that they don’t already have tiered water rates as a routine part of their customer pricing system. So in order to create pricing incentives to conserve, they have to -- they're bound by proposition 218 which means they have to actually go through an election process to change the rates. That takes time so they made it a request initially.
Another reason is that while San Juan Water District which covers a huge area of the Sacramento suburbs, on Wednesday they requested that all their customers completely stop all their outdoor watering. This district is largely dependent on Folsom Lake and as we said, it's at around 17 percent of capacity. They've cut water releases into the American River to try to hold the reservoir stable but that's going to kill salmon in the river. We mentioned food versus fish. Well, it's important to remember that fish are food. This is part of the salmon run that supports the commercial salmon fishing industry statewide. If you buy wild caught salmon in California, you're buying this fish. And their eggs are dying in the American River because we’re saving water behind Folsom Dam for those suburban communities.
If the drought continues, San Juan is going to adapt a stage 5 drought plan which is the most severe category they have, that will happen in February if it stays dry. And that will mean mandatory no outdoor watering, 50 percent conservation in all your water use, no new hook ups to the water system. So if you're building a house or a new business, you'll have to wait. You won't be able to build it or connect water to it. Other communities in the area are at 20 percent. The City of Sacramento which is the biggest water user in the area, is expected to go to 20 percent -- 20 to 30 percent conservation order next week. So that's just the Sacramento area. Other places -- Mendocino County, is in similar situation.
Greg Dalton: Should the California -- should the environment -- the Endangered Species Act be relaxed? Would that help in this situation? Matt Weiser then we’ll get Senator Wolk.
Matt Weiser: Well, that's one of the things that has come up and comes up any time we have a drought. If it could be suspended, it would, theoretically, allow more water to be diverted from the Delta. That would take federal action. At the moment, the feds are not onboard with any of our drought issues. If the Governor declares a drought which is looking like he's, at least, thinking about it, one of the things that would do is it would allow him to modify or suspend water quality rules in the Delta which would also allow more water to be diverted from the Delta. And that would have impacts on fish and habitat in the Delta.
Those Delta fish species, as we recently learned from the latest survey of their populations, they're all at historically low levels this year as they have been in recent years. And we already know that they do poorly in drought years. So you kind of have two strikes against them already. And if you lose in those water quality rules and take more water from the Delta in a drought year, that could be a third strike.
Greg Dalton: It sounds like that's an unlikely option. Briefly, I want to get that from Senator Wolk and Senator Fuller then we’re going to go to audience questions. Should the Endangered Species Act be relaxed?
Lois Wolk: Well, I don’t believe so but, as I said earlier, in a serious drought -- well, I come from Northern California, there are a number of things that have to be done before we resort to throwing out what I think has been a great law. For example, we all need to meter. We don’t in Northern California. We don’t in Sacramento. We need to do that. With respect to groundwater throughout the state, value as well, we don’t meter it. We use 30 percent -- 30 percent of our water use in California is groundwater. When we go into a drought situation, it goes higher, it goes close to 40, and yet we know very little about what goes on in our groundwater because we don’t measure it. Well, how serious can we possibly be about water use in the State of California if 30 to 40 percent of water is not metered? We don’t know what the condition is of it. We simply don’t know that. There's a lot that we have to do before we start suspending our laws. And frankly, I don’t want to see three strikes happen to the Delta, and I don’t think the State of California wants that to happen either, and I certainly don’t believe that voters would support that.
Jean Fuller: The way it's metered now is how much you put in because groundwater is just like an empty teakettle, you put water in, and once you pump it out, it's gone, you got to keep putting it in. So one of the tools that we have that's really going to help us a lot to this third year of drought is that we put in a water bank, and in past years we put a large percentage of our water that came to us in that groundwater bank. And we have our own river, we have our own dam. It's not enough for the whole area but it's very good, it's very well. And we measure and meter all that that goes in. So the bottom line is we can measure all the contents of this empty teapot or this half full teapot but at the end of the day if you don’t put some more water in there, it doesn’t matter. And so for us, we are going to be doing conservation measures. We've been doing them all along but we know that if after we've done every single conservation measure, if we get down to where Folsom is, we will still have drinking water for families, probably, out of that water bank.
So back to should we do something about the Environmental Species Act, the legislature had that same hard problem in 2009. And so in 2009 what we decided was we were going to make like a state-wide EIR for the whole area and we’re going to put people who were experts in science to study how you would do it and support the coequal goals. Remember those restoration of habitat and reliable water instead of politics because as you know politics. So that's what the BDC was supposed to do, that's what the science was supposed to do, and we were doing that but they didn’t imagine another drought of this type hitting us so soon.
So what I say is, is the government’s job is to respond to crises as they present themselves. We are having a crisis that's presenting themselves that's beginning a pattern, and that pattern is affecting our water supply. And unless we can get people to quit drinking water in August, which I don’t think is going to happen, then we need to do something that changes so that we are looking at both of those goals. And just real quick, I'm not going to talk about the towns I want to talk about alternate conveyance because that was the 2009 agreement, is that alternate conveyance would be paid for by the beneficiaries, and that then became the tunnels. But that was put in specifically because it would change the flows back to the old flows in the Delta. So a huge expense that a lot of my farmer guys don’t want to pay for it because they're happy with the way it's flowing over to the pumps right now. But in order to not affect the fish and the habitat as much, we’ll have to have flows that do not go the wrong direction.
So the whole tunnels issue, if it goes away, in one way, yes, then we don’t have to worry about how we’re going to pay for it, there's still ways to get water down the aqueducts. But you know what? It doesn’t help the Delta. It doesn’t fix the flow pattern. So we’re not using every tool we can to deal with stressors and threats to the ecosystem. And that's not the only thing that saved it.
Greg Dalton: So I think that was no on metering and a yes on…
Jean Fuller: I would say yes on metering in terms of we meter everything and we charge everybody for everything but not new metering just on new water that you put in the groundwater because, to me, it doesn’t solve our problem.
Greg Dalton: We’re talking about water at Climate One with State Senator Jean Fuller, State Senator Lois Wolk and reporter Matt Weiser. I'm Greg Dalton. We’re going to invite your participation up here for one brief comment, question here on water for our speakers. The line forms over there with our producer, Jane Ann and Dee. And if you're over here, please go out those doors and the line forms right over there. We’ll get as many as we can with quick questions and quick answers and 16 minutes left. Let's go to audience questions. Welcome to Climate One.
Male Participant 1: Good morning. Thank you for being here and for your discussion. I'm of the opinion that there's adequate water in the State of California. And the biggest problem the state has had for the last 60 years is old water laws and gross mismanagement of water. And until the legislature and the Governor gets serious about it, you're going to keep having these 20 cent conversations instead of doing something about it. I would like to ask the two senators what do they think they can do legislatively? I mean, they grow algae in the gutters in Fresno and in Corona Del Mar California. Why isn't somebody doing something about that? And how about the evaporation from the swimming pools and all that other funny stuff that we tolerate in times -- when you're thinking about we may not have enough water to drink? What is the legislature going to do about it?
Jean Fuller: I think one of the things that the legislature did that I -- I can't say that I agree with it at the time but I have to say that in the drought it makes some sense. They said that no new subdivisions could be built without approving a 20-year water supply. Boom. World changed. World changed because, guess what, no new water, 5 percent allocation. Okay. So then if there's no new subdivisions then if people want that, then they will try to buy the excess from somebody else, so then you begin not having lawns, not having swimming pools and so on and so forth for your area. So while it's in its early stages, that will have some effect that's in a short time, if you want to talk later, I'd be happy to, but in a short time, that, to me, was the biggest global effect that we probably need to look at again.
Lois Wolk: I'd like to compliment Jean, actually. What she just said is probably -- you better be careful when you go back to Bakersfield.
Jean has been an excellent voice for reason in the water debates even though we do not agree about the conventional results. But in any case -- remind me again.
Greg Dalton: The legislature, what would you…
Lois Wolk: Oh, the legislature. Yes. Listen, some of the worst -- changing water law, legislature doesn’t do that really well, in fact it doesn’t do it at all. Water debates are very unsatisfactory. It's going to be very difficult to do that. Frankly, most of the advances that come about in the water area come about because of laws. There are litigations, there are lawsuits, and then a judge moves the endangered species law or something moves forward or is upheld, and then we react. I don’t hold a tremendous amount of hope for the legislature waiting in and changing water law. We tried to do that in 2009 and came up with these dual goals. It's wonderful in theory but the fact is the folks that have the water supply have more power than the ecosystem folks do. And it's all going to have to be worked out in court ultimately.
Greg Dalton: And water supply is regulated, it's very fragmented, there are hundreds of water agencies, it's a very local issue. Let's go to our next audience question.
Ed Church: Hi. I'm Ed Church with the Institute for Environmental Entrepreneurship. I'd like the panel to comment on the water related issues of fracking which uses vast amounts of freshwater and then threatens to pollute the groundwater
Greg Dalton: Senator Fuller, fracking happens in Kern County.
Jean Fuller: First of all, I'd like to say that, again, if you look at the bigger picture -- so right now, like it or not, fossil fuel is the largest part of our portfolio for energy. And if we stop it tomorrow, we couldn't provide. And fracking is, in California, different than in other areas. It uses less water. In fact, they have estimated that it really, in most cases, it's only about a golf course or what a golf course uses in a day. But having said that, it's more about so what is the price of energy and where do we get our energy and how much water do we have and how do we keep a balance. In my area 80 percent of the fracking is not over water table, and the water is used very, very sparingly, and it's not like the northern coast.
I think it's good for the public to become educated about it and to learn about it but I think a moratorium would only make the water crisis worse because energy prices would go completely up and we probably wouldn't be able to get enough energy especially if we did on short term. It would have to be imported energy which we know when you import energy, it costs money, it brings more greenhouse gases, big disaster, not really a good solution. And ultimately that we can use technology to make all these processes safer or we can make our generation for energy safer or larger or more productive. So to me, it's really a question and certainly a moratorium is not the answer but of using reason, science and technology, to move us along to better practices so that we have a balance.
Male Participant 2: Thank you all for being here to talk about such an important issue.
A few years ago, I changed my attitude from being somewhat careful about my use of water to being very careful about my use of water. Water bill shows average gallons per day consumed, I went from 100-something to 11 gallon today. My use for…
Greg Dalton: That's low.
Male Participant 2: I live alone in my house.
Male Participant 2: My question is -- well, that says to me there's huge potential. All I had to buy was a couple of five-gallon buckets. There's huge potential for a combination of education and maybe regulation to make a big change without a lot of technology, without a lot of infrastructure improvement.
Greg Dalton: Thank you. Thank you.
Male Participant 2: Quickly. What's your impression?
Greg Dalton: Let me interpret that, your response to that but also ask you what you personally do to manage your own water impact.
Senator Fuller, how big is your lawn?
Jean Fuller: I personally spend eight and a half months in Sacramento every year. My water bill is almost nothing. And my…
Greg Dalton: But it's not measured or metered, right?
Jean Fuller: No. It's metered. Every bit of Bakersfield is metered.
Greg Dalton: No. Sacramento is not metered.
Jean Fuller: Oh. Well, since I live in an apartment, I guess I don’t really know much about that. I just pay the landlord. He's probably making money off of me because I'm from southern area, Central California. I don’t know that water is cheaper up here. Sorry. That's the truth.
Lois Wolk: When we -- I was on the Davis City Council in the 90’s, and I was very much interested in water at that time. And we retrofitted water meters, nearly was recalled, but we did it. And what happens is -- where's the gentleman?
Reduced rate of water, immediately, there's a decline in the amount of water that people use just because they're paying attention. And more important, you find out where the leaks are. So if you get a water bill of $900 a month, bingo, there's no reason in the world that that would happen. And that’s what happens. It's an educational function. So you want to know what I do. I mean, I just redid all my landscaping. And I love my landscaping. It's all water efficient. I do all the water -- everything that we’re supposed to do, toilets and everything, many of which are mandated now. A very important thing to do.
Matt Weiser: Well, just to correct what you said earlier, Sacramento is about half metered. There's another half still to go and they are working -- they've accelerated putting in meters. There's a 2025 state law deadline that requires the city to be fully metered. However, I live in a city in Sacramento, a neighborhood in Sacramento that is not metered. I don’t have a water meter at my house. I have no idea how much I use on a daily basis, and I think that's horrible. However, personally I took out my own lawn about eight years ago. I don’t have a lawn. I have native plants. Everything that needs water is drip irrigated. I redid my bathroom a few years ago and put in a low flow toilet with two different buttons depending on what you're using it for. I wash full loads of dishes, full loads of laundry. I do everything possible to save water. However, I'm embarrassed to say that the gutters in my neighborhood are running full of water virtually every day because my neighbors don’t have meters, they have lawns, and they don’t pay attention.
Greg Dalton: I'll just add, chime in on this, yesterday -- people who live in San Francisco can call the PUC. They will come and they will -- they're going to come to my house in a couple of weeks and do a water evaluation.
We recently installed a re-circ pump on the hot water heater so it circulates hot water when the kids are taking showers. So hot water comes quickly. It uses a little bit of power, it saves water. Senator Wolk, you wanted to add something. And we’re going to get to the next question.
Lois Wolk: I think it's really important to be careful about this because then we go into each house and we start to determining family size and how much water use. I think that's where the pricing mechanism comes in. People ought to be able to have part of their landscaping be lawn if they want, but it's seems to me that you should be willing to pay for the total amount of water that you take. And if I want to take a ten-minute shower and you don’t, fine. What are we going to have? Water police? No. It seems to me that that's where the pricing mechanism comes in. You expect to pay -- use the amount of water you want and then the price should be reflective of that.
Greg Dalton: Let's go to the next audience question. Welcome to Climate One.
Male Participant 3: Thank you. I realize that there are many water agencies and they are the ones that institute request and mandatory water rationing. But given that last year was a dry year and it typically starts raining in October and we’re almost halfway into January right now, and I was shocked to learn some reservoirs have less than 20 percent, I'm just amazed and wonder why nothing has been done sooner than now.
Greg Dalton: What’s taking it so long? Who would like to tackle that one? Senator Fuller.
Jean Fuller: Well, I don’t know if I could say what's taking it so long except that since I've been in the legislature -- remember, I was a school superintendent before I came so I actually had to get these kids to school every day on my buses. I couldn't wait eight months for that to happen. But when I got in the legislature I found that our state is so big and so diverse that it takes so much time to process things and so people -- the crisis of the moment gets the attention.
And it's not good planning, it's not good anything, and I should -- I'm not making apology but that's like one issue. So I don’t blame one party or the other. I'm a Republican right now, I could be sitting going “Oh, that's a great answer.” I'll just blame those guys. They're in control, right? But it's not really like that. It's more like -- and we had a drought and we were working on it, we got We got the 2009 package almost out and then the drought got better which is good but then people’s interest fell off. So that's number one.
Number two was I'm one of first persons and I went and talked to Congressman Valadao and we put out a letter that said the farmers find out first because they find they're only going to get 5 percent allocation so they know -- they know they're in a world of hurt. They know that everybody’s livelihood right now, because they're not going to be able to buy seed and plant, is hurt for June and July. And so it kind of doesn’t matter for them -- I mean, it matters but it's like it's hitting them right now. So we wrote the letters, we got everything going on, we started shaking and saying, “Somebody needs to watch it.” And I have to say, our governor stepped up and said he's going to do a taskforce. And I also sent a letter to President Obama and he hasn’t answered me yet but I guess he has reasons. And I think that all of us as we become informed, and that's why I'm here today even though, as I said, it's scary, we get the word out to everybody. And I think it's particularly important that people understand that the water dynamics are different now because this is a third year drought. So the water supplies are gone for people and it's going to hit later. So pretty soon like August and July, people will be really waken up if we don’t get rain in the next six or eight weeks, like huge rain or, actually, a huge snow pack we need. That's all I can -- I don’t know. She probably has the better answer, she’s in the government longer.
Greg Dalton: Jean Fuller is a California State Senator, Republican, from Bakersfield. Let's have our next audience question.
Cynthia Coller: Thank you so much. I'm Cynthia Coller with Water Now.
And as all you probably know, household water use is more than 50 percent of that in California on average, of course, is for outdoor landscaping. And the legislature, thank you very much, all of you, I'm sure you supported it, passed a terrific gray water statute about three years ago. However, there's been virtually no funding and very little bit of an uptake. And I'm wondering in the year ahead, do you see an opportunity for the legislature to build on that success from 2011 and provide some funding so that water districts, which I think has been acknowledged here which are very dispersed, very decentralized, can really move forward and make gray water more of a solution for California homes and businesses?
Greg Dalton: So let's end on -- more on gray water, catching water as our grandparents did. Senator Wolk.
Lois Wolk: Absolutely. And when -- we’ll go back to how we started. It seems to me that the drought gives us an opportunity to go back to these areas and replenish the state funding that used to be available in greater amounts for precisely these kinds of regional projects that increase the water supply, increase the reliability of the water supply. We need to do that. And there's consensus on that. So we need to build on that, and that's what a bond is for.
Matt Weiser: Well, I think gray water is one of the other low hanging fruits. There's a lot more we could do with gray water. I think many homes could be retrofitted with some kind of a gray water system to use for landscaping. It ought to be easier to do that. There ought to be incentives for homeowners to do that from their water agency. Another one is catching rainwater. I was talking about Southern California earlier. There are rebates that water customers down there can get to purchase rain barrels. I think we ought to have rain barrels and rainwater catchment wherever we can.
Jean Fuller: Well, I think we’re going to have to explore all of those but we need to have a big plan to review all of our technology and all of our regulations because sometimes regulations block progress like this, and sometimes we need incentives. Now, I'm from the minority party so unless I jointly partner with my friend here, Lois, I probably won't be doing any of those bills even though I think that that's an area that we need to work on. And I'm glad it was suggested today.
Greg Dalton: And as we end here at Climate One, I'd like to thank Senator Fuller again for being a rare Republican willing to come talk about these issues which are so difficult in this time. Our guests today at Climate One have been Lois Wolk, California State Senator, Democrat, from Davis, Jean Fuller, California State Senator, Republican, from Bakersfield, and Matt Weiser, senior writer from the Sacramento Bee. I'm Greg Dalton. You can listen to this and other Climate One programs in iTunes including a program called a Mountain Meltdown with ski executives talking about the ski industry being impacted by some of the things we've been talking about today. Thank you all for coming to Climate One.
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Managed direct rather than those hired for purchasing manager resume can drop content, familiarity operating expenditures
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I completed my Doctorate of Musical Arts degree in 2017 under the tutelage of Kurt Muroki and Rachel Calin, two stellar bassists who inspired me to pursue my love of chamber music. Prior to graduating, I co-founded the Annapolis (MD) Chamber Music Festival, which is in its seventh year of presenting innovative performances of old and new chamber music. I maintain an active schedule as a freelance orchestral bassist with groups like the North Carolina Symphony, Charleston Symphony, Allentown Symphony, and the Chamber Orchestra of the Triangle (Durham, NC). But perhaps my greatest pride is in the accomplishments of my students at Duke University, where I serve as double bass and chamber music faculty for both the School of Music and the pre-college String School. The excellent solo and chamber music performances they give, and the positions they have attained in all-state auditions and in college music studios speak to their abilities and character.
In my opinion, the two things that help young musicians grow the most are playing ensemble music and being in an inspiring environment with talented and dedicated peers. The daily schedule at Luzerne is set up to immerse students in such an environment. I'm very excited to see how my students will progress over the course of the month!
What can campers expect to learn while working with you this summer?
While at LMC, you will be challenged with great chamber and orchestral repertoire. We will work together to ensure you have the technical and musical knowledge needed to succeed in your performances this summer. I also look forward to helping you with your personal goals - whether you're preparing for a fall audition, learning a new solo piece or looking to develop your technique, we can work together to make it happen. Finally, I like to make sure we have time to learn from each other as a studio, which means studio classes - and playing bass ensemble music!
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Not too long ago, a bunch of ladies on our street gathered for a “baby shower parade” for a neighbor who’s expecting her third child next week. The parade was organized by a friend who is remarkably talented in hospitality. Even though it had snowed the night before, this friend set up tables, stuck letters spelling out “It’s a Girl!” into the cold, hard ground as best she could, and organized miniature bottles of champagne with a sweet pink ribbon around their necks for the guests to take home and open in celebration when the baby was born. When our expectant neighbor came out to greet us – she didn’t know about the event beforehand – she wiped some joyful tears away, and we all spent the time masked up in her driveway doing what you would normally do during any non-pandemic shower: oohed and aahed over tiny baby outfits and warm receiving blankets, recalled stories of our own labors and deliveries, and basked in the shared little community we had.
It was a great day, made even more special by these little touches that my friend had created something that I, admittedly, am not very skilled in. (I don’t have a good eye for matching color palettes or am gifted in coordinating party favors.) But it was more than just those things: it was the spirit of hospitality that struck me, and the other guests, the most.
What do you think of when you hear that word, “hospitality?” You might think of a hotel manager or a party planner. You might think of the opposite word, “inhospitable.” Or you might picture something warm and inviting. When I think of hospitality, I think of welcoming – of anticipating someone else’s needs or wants and providing it for them for no other reason than enjoyment for someone else’s happiness. It’s letting someone know that you think they’re important enough to make them comfortable.
And interestingly enough, it’s not something that comes easily to everyone! I don’t think it’s always our first instinct to look out for the other people in our lives. There are times when we have to move our own comfort out of the way for someone else, and it’s uncomfortable and undesirable (I’m looking at you, parents of young kids!) But if you’ve been on the receiving end of someone’s unfettered hospitality, you know how special it makes you feel, and that feeling can go a long way.
On a podcast I listened to recently, one of the hosts described a friend of his who is a master at hospitality. He doesn’t drink much beer, but always makes sure to have a case of it in his fridge ready for guests, and that’s because people are more apt to help themselves when it’s offered if there is a lot of beer there, versus if there’s only a couple. My friend, the one who hosted the baby shower, is also thoughtful this way too because when you spend the night at her house, her guest room is outfitted like a bed-and-breakfast, complete with wi-fi password framed by the bed, right next to your own personal Kureig machine.
Is this something you feel you need to do at your home? Probably not and that’s okay! There’s no need to go above and beyond. But I do think that we can all benefit from becoming more hospitable in our lives. What does that look like in a pandemic, when we can’t have people over for a beer? Well, it could look like taking some time to send a text or a Zoom call with a friend you haven’t talked to in a while. It could mean grabbing some extra sundries for a neighbor the next time you’re at the grocery store, or picking up a neighbor’s takeout order when you go to pick yours up. If you have the time (and muscle strength), it could also mean shoveling the sidewalk in front of your neighbor’s house after you shovel your own, or dropping off some donuts for the teachers in your kids’ school on a Friday to celebrate another week in the books.
Whatever it is, your show of hospitality will not only make a difference in someone else’s day, it’ll make a good difference in yours, too!
Until next time, be well!
About the author: Christy Gualtieri is a freelance writer specializing in pop culture, religion, and motherhood. She lives in Pittsburgh with her husband and two children. Christy also blogs at asinglehour.wordpress.com and tweets @agapeflower117. You can follow her here on eTalkTherapy for inspirational articles and different perspectives as they relate to good mental health.
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For most companies, blogging is strictly a marketing job. But a blog can be more than just a marketing tool.
It can be a platform to showcase ideas, talent, and values. What’s more, the act of writing itself provides a number of benefits for the individual, professionally and personally.
Five arguments to convince your teammates to pick up a pen.
Writing makes happier
Liam Nolan explains it quite well - a happier employee is a better one. Consequently, any action that sustains an employee's work focus while improving their wellbeing is also good for the company. Writing is such an action.
Psychological research hands us some scientific proof. The therapeutical effectiveness of expressive writing is well-documented by research for many forms of mental or physical illness.
As Tara Parker-Pope summarized in her NYT article , the positive effects were also found with subjects in emotionally challenging situations like academic struggle, marriage conflicts.
Another study tracked two groups of recently fired engineers. The researchers asked one to regularly write about their thoughts and feelings after being laid off, the other group didn’t write.
After 8 months, most of the writers had found a new job.
The writing engineers showed significantly less frustration about job loss and animosity towards their former employer. Also, 52 per cent of the writers were back in jobs after 8 months, compared to 19 per cent of the non-writers.
Telling your spouse or a good friend about challenging, motivating, but also exhausting projects at work makes you feel better. Regular blogging has a similar effect on us, as research by Tiwanese psychhologists Ko & Kuo gives vital reason to believe .
With proof for the benefits of writing in such a host of different situations, it’s easy to assume they’d also hold up in the everyday life of the employee in an ambitious company.
Harvard neuroscientist Alice Flaherty explains the positive effect of blogging about stressful events of any kind on body and mind with a triggering of dopamine release. She suspects writing to cause this just like sports and consumption or performance of the arts do. So, let your employees blog and their mood will be lifted, making them more valuable for you.
Getting to the bottom of things requires mental effort. If people in your company systematically shy away from it, this can lead to sloppiness in how they execute plans and lack of inspiration to try something new.
Deep thinking is like an excavation of ideas and wisdom: the deeper you dig, the more likely you are to find great things that challenge or confirm your previous assumptions. But this also entails turning every stone, sorting through vast amounts of relevant and irrelevant information, variables and their interrelations.
A difficult task for your mind, which can only retain and access so much at a time. Thus, the limitations of a human’s memory also limit the depth of their thoughts.
If I put down something, that thing will help the next thing come, and I'm off. If I let the process go on, things will occur to me that were not at all in my mind when I started. These things, odd or trivial as they may be, are somehow connected. And if I let them string out, surprising things will happen.
Writing allows you to store information elsewhere. Any Einstein or Hawking would have never gotten to a single major conclusion without a blackboard. Notes are inevitable for practical reasons. Blogging, however, has its very own potential.
Research has shown that writing out thoughts significantly improves critical thinking as well as analysis and inference skills. Which appears logical since writing also urges you to reflect and look at a topic from different perspectives.
This is all the more true for content meant to be published on a company blog. Here, writing works like a quality filter for thoughts. If you know people will read your post, you test your argumentation so they can’t tear it to pieces later on. It’s a lever to increase overall accuracy. At the same time, it inspires you to think into different directions and try new paths.
Again, the approach to writing will also reflect in your blog contributor’s approach to their actual work. In meetings and brainstorm sessions, people will focus on their arguments instead of trying to make themselves noticed for the sake of it.
A creative environment. Groundbreaking ideas are often found unexpectedly. While it’s impossible to find a reliable process to reproduce them, you can create an environment in which they can grow. A blog greatly helps with that.
Often, at the stage of weighing up thoughts, whole new ideas present themselves. When I write a post, inconspicuous subpoints suddenly jump at me and inspire blog topics of their own or other ideas on how to improve the business I’m part of.
A company blog is like an excavation site inviting everyone in your team to join in and find their own special piece while being part of something bigger. Meanwhile, (ideally) the whole world is watching what you’re about to dig up.
More modestly, though, your blog nourishes your staff’s motivation to constantly update what they think they know. This is a prerequisite for developing grand ideas in the first place.
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A creative mind. Cognitive science research delivered evidence that creativity correlates with all sorts of intelligence. It’s a quality you just want in the people that try to push your company forward every day. Paul Jun neatly summarizes how writing supports creativity and clarity.
Designer Tom Kenny described creativity as an inherent potential that but lies dormant unless you exercise it like a muscle. Writing then is the iron you pump.
In your marketing and PR departments communication skills are naturally prevalent. Language is their standard tool. But many companies have turned a blind eye to the communication skills of their more internal-oriented colleagues.
Bad communication can threaten productivity in any company making use of written collaboration tools. Most often, it stems from an inability to present information in a way that is comprehensible to others. In other words, to talk in one language.
The movie Arrival masterly illustrated how agreement on a topic is rendered irrelevant when the discussion parties have no means to make themselves understood. Your colleagues from different department are likely easier to understand than aliens, but the problem is by far not exclusive to sci-fi realities.
This BlogIn post offered some effective management techniques to tackle it. I’d add writing as another approach because people who write communicate complex ideas more efficiently. Writing forces thoughts into comprehensible structure.
In both emotional intelligence and in hard sciences like mathematics, writing has been shown to help people communicate highly complex ideas more effectively. Writing helps eliminate “it sounded good in my head” by forcing your hand; brains forgive fuzzy abstractions, prose does not.
You know the following situation: You’re in deep discussion with someone, you try to tie the various ends of a complex issue at the same time to present a strikingly logical conclusion... only to notice that you’ve missed a detail and it all falls apart. “Gimme a sec…”
This is frustrating for you but it’s also harmful to your company. Things are left unsaid, miscommunicated, misunderstood.
Unless you’re encouraging your employees to publish a stream of consciousness, they will automatically train structuring thoughts when they blog. Information will flow more efficiently and complex discussions will not scare off anyone.
Everyone in the company will understand each other better both by reading posts on each other’s current topics and because everyone’s communication skills constantly improve. Besides, you create an environment that bolsters and rewards good, clear communication.
A blog gives a face to the company and its people
First and foremost, the Userlike blog is a marketing vehicle. But as shown by previous posts like this one on company core values by our founder Timoor, a company blog can work as window through which the world out there can look in.
Big corporations are usually trying hard to appear humane, to prevent the image of a cold, stiffly hierarchal organization. A blog gives you the opportunity to show what your company stands for and where it comes from. To give insights into what’s happening behind the gates and, most importantly, which enormous talent is at work there.
Especially the technical experts in a company often lack visibility, although their work is essential for its survival. This isn’t about dragging people into the spotlight against their will. It’s about giving them an opportunity to show a bit of their work that resulted in great product features.
The company benefits by highlighting how much it values the work of their employees, no matter their position. It’s a signal to potential customers that the company is trustworthy and transparent. Also, it’s a signal to job candidates that their talent will be appreciated and that self-development is encouraged.
But there are some self-serving reasons for the ones writing, too. “A well-constructed blog post is a career asset for the author, silly as it may seem.”, writes Gregory Ciotti . He points to the fact that a complete story about how a project was wrapped up is much more revealing than a mere bullet point in one’s resume.
Some employees’ work doesn’t offer anything to permissibly share with the public. These people in internal company affairs can write about other projects that shine a light on their way of getting things done: the planning of company events, their desk setup, how and why they brought plants into the office, or private projects that inspired efforts in their job.
How to get people to write
Motivate them. Tell them about all the benefits you’ve just learned here. How they’ll become happier, smarter, better through writing. That’s the way in which I’ve tried to hook my colleagues onto it in a recent talk at our quarterly company event Userlike Thursday, which sparked the idea for this post. We encouraged the others who presented talks that same night to turn their already existing notes into a post as well.
Making people write by telling them what’s in it for them.
Start small. For those who haven’t written texts longer than emails since college, the thought of writing a whole blog post might seem frightening. So, first encourage little steps that put them back in touch with the written word.
Focus on them picking up the pen. Let them form a habit by keeping a journal, collecting thoughts in a commonplace book , or, as suggested by Mattan Griffel , writing “morning pages”.
Let bloggers guide colleagues. Let your marketers tell the soon-to-be-contributors about how you started out, your struggle and progress, what good came of it. Let them know that you too started small, that it’s about the content and getting their ideas broadcast in the most appealing way.
Guide them through your content creation process and help them by rewriting their post to make the piece flow. Add short comments explaining why you’ve made a certain change.
Get books on writing. Our tips:
Building a company wide blogging culture is no overnight job. The benefits, however, more than make up for the effort. Apart from its practical advantages, it can add some edge both to your company’s image as to that of your employees.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sven is Mr. Content at Userlike. He loves live music, football, and podcasts, has a thing for online data privacy and enjoys long bike rides to work.
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Following the appearance of anti-Israel graffiti at Gan Noe Preschool, the children decorated a banner offering Shabbat greetings to the neighborhood.
Bay Area
S.F. Chabad preschool vandalized with ‘Death to Israel’
By Gabe Stutman | May 25, 2021
Chabad of Noe Valley in San Francisco is bulking up security after discovering a hateful message scrawled near its front gate.
Preschool teachers arriving at the Jewish center the morning of May 14 discovered the graffiti drawn in black ink, reading “Israil terror” and “Death to Israil.”
The Gan Noe Preschool brings about 30 children every weekday to the center. Its curriculum is guided by Jewish values, according to its website, encouraging “kindness, respect, compassion, confidence and responsibility.”
“It was very unsettling to think that someone would take out their rage on children,” said Rabbi Gedalia Potash, “and express themselves in such an unsettling way.”
The San Francisco Police Department is investigating the incident, Potash said, and the FBI was contacted. On Wednesday an SFPD spokesperson said the investigation remained open.
Anti-Israel graffiti was discovered at Chabad of Noe Valley the morning of May 14.
The graffiti comes amid a wave of antisemitic outbursts across the country coinciding with intense fighting in Israel and Gaza and sharp criticism of Israel in the public square. The Anti-Defamation League had tallied at least 26 antisemitic incidents since May 10, including several physical attacks. Jews in Los Angeles were attacked outside a Japanese restaurant on May 18, and on May 24 a kosher pizzeria in Manhattan found a brick thrown through its window.
“This does feel quite different,” ADL executive Jonathan Greenblatt told the Washington Post.
After the graffiti was discovered the Chabad center hired a professional security guard for the preschool, Potash said, and is using volunteers to monitor the front entrance during Shabbat services.
“The kids all got together before the end of the day” to decorate the sign, Potash said. “They hung it up for the whole neighborhood to wish them a Shabbat Shalom.”
“That’s really our message,” he said. “We are going to be stronger and prouder, and not cower to intimidation like this. We are going to show we are a peaceful people.”
J. covers our community better than any other source and provides news you can't find elsewhere. Support local Jewish journalism and give to J. today. Your donation will help J. survive and thrive!
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The land of the pharaohs and the great Pyramids is a sizzling vacation destination and one that is great for honeymooners, solo travelers, and water sports fanatics. Egypt bridges North Africa and the Middle East and the culture is just as unique as the location, but you might be wondering where the warmest places in Egypt are.
It might have a Mediterannean coastline and another flanked by the Red Sea, but Egypt is actually dominated by desert and boasts dry and hot weather all year round. Mild winters fall along coastal regions, but summers are always boiling and you’ll struggle to find daily highs below 80 degrees Fahrenheit anywhere.
Nevertheless, there are some places that are cooler than others and the south is undoubtedly the hottest part of the country. Our guide comes in with all the places to go if you want scorching heat in Egypt and everything that makes them unique, as well as where to avoid in the peak of summer if you don’t want heatstroke that is. Let’s get into it.
When is the best time to visit Egypt?
Can you swim in the Red Sea?
Photo by Givaga on Envato Elements
Located on the east banks of the River Nile, Aswan has been a commercial gateway city for Egypt since ancient times with its strategic location just north of the Aswan Dam. Also famed for its granite quarries, you can find thousands of Egyptian statues, shrines, obelisks and even pyramids constructed from locally mined granite, most of which are housed in the Philae Temple complex on Agilkia Island.
These ruins are one of southern Egypt’s most significant archaeological sites and the Temple of Isis, dating back to the 4th-century B.C., sits in the complex. Downriver you’ll also find Elephantine Island, holding the Temple of Khnum from the Third Dynasty.
Aswan is Egypt’s southernmost city, located at the first cataract of the Nile north of Sudan and 600 miles from the capital of Cairo. Aswan was once the frontier of the ancient kingdom and despite being one of the warmest places in Egypt, the city is lush and fertile thanks to the Nile. Incredible riverside scenery and well-maintained green spaces are all characteristics of Aswan. Sailboats bob along peacefully and the city is a popular stop-off for river cruises.
You won’t find soaring skyscrapers and traffic-choked streets like Cairo, but the modern city has seen a huge expansion in recent years and the busy market center is popular with tourists. The city is also part of the UNESCO Creative Cities Network for craft and folk art and you can spend hours getting lost in the narrow streets dotted with souvenir shops.
Still, you might want to pick the time of year that you visit Aswan very carefully. The city has a subtropical desert climate with very mild winters and very hot, sunny summers with little rainfall. Long, sweltering, and arid days with no rain are common from April to October and the winters are short and dry, too. Summer highs can exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit and you’ll rarely see the temperature dip below 80.
Winter is more forgiving and you expect pleasant highs of 80 degrees from November to February and cool evenings of around 50 degrees Fahrenheit.
Photo by Givaga on Envato Elements
Located in upper southern Egypt on the east bank of the Nile, Luxor is a modern, upscale city where you can find highrise hotels and ancient sites existing harmoniously. The area was formerly known as the pharaoh’s capital and sits on the site of Thebes where two spectacular monuments from 16th-century B.C. still stand.
The Luxor Temple complex and the Karnak Temple, a mile north, are some of the most impressive feats of architecture from the ancient world and Karnak has survived from as far back as the reign of Pharaoh Seti I. The royal tombs of the Valley of the Kings and the Valley of the Queens are located just across from the city on the west bank of the Nile where you’ll also find quiet local streets, peppered with old houses and authentic Egyptian cafes. The east is much busier with malls, hotels, international restaurants, and manicured green spaces.
You can spend hours wandering the temples, tombs, and narrow streets of Luxor, but make sure you do it at the right time of year since temperatures here aren’t dissimilar to those in Aswan. The cities are just three hours apart (240 kilometers) and Luxor also benefits from a subtropical climate encircled by an arid, desert.
Expect 100-degree summers with slightly cooler lows than Aswan, hovering around 70 degrees Fahrenheit. Winter also averages around 70 degrees Fahrenheit by day with lows of around 45.
Photo by twenty20photos on Envato Elements
Siwa is an urban oasis located between the Qattara Depression and the Great Sand Sea of the Western Desert. Located just 50 kilometers east of the Libyan border and 560 kilometers from Cairo, Siwa has a fascinating culture and unique scenery.
This mirage-like place is dotted with lofty palms, olive groves that emerge from the sands, and ancient mud-brick buildings that house the 20,000 Berber inhabitants that call Siwa home. This indigenous group of Northwest Africa are descendants of the pre-Arab people of this region and are known for their nomadic lifestyle and agriculture. Historically, Berber merchants transported goods by “camel caravans” across deserts and borders. Today, camels remain the preferred mode of transport for the local people of Siwa.
The location and isolation of Siwa have afforded the Berbers here an incredibly distinct culture, particularly in comparison to the typically Middle Eastern and Islamic values that are held all over Egypt. Male homosexuality is widely accepted here and same-sex marriages are permitted and even celebrated through vibrant rituals and ceremonies. Siwa has been of special interest to anthropologists and sociologists for this reason, but Egyptian authorities have sought to repress these traditions in the last fifty years, with homosexuality being illegal in the rest of the country.
Still, Siwa offers a lot more to see that the practices of its people. The history of the town dates back to the 10th-century B.C. when the Temple of Amun was instated here, and later visited by Alexander the Great. Siwa was known as “Sekht-am” in ancient Egypt, meaning ‘palm land’ which perfectly depicts the fertile oasis.
A real highlight is the crystal clear salt lakes that create a mirage of sparkling waters to give any white sand beach paradise a run for its money. The Zeitoun Lake is the largest of the Siwa Oasis and it miraculously appears on the border of wilderness just east of Siwa in the Western Desert. You can even swim in Siwa’s salt lakes and taking an evening dip is a popular activity for tourists and the perfect way to cool off after a scorching day under the African sun.
With virtually no rainfall year-round, Siwa has a desert climate with long, sweltering summers and average highs of 100 degrees Fahrenheit from June to August. Temperatures average at around 70 degrees Fahrenheit during winter and drop considerably at night, perfect for camping out under the stars. Be sure to check out the remnants of the Temple of Amun if temperatures allow it, there’s also the 13th-century Fortress of Shali with labyrinthine alleys, an old mosque, and soaring minarets in the center of Siwa.
Photo by EwaStudio on Envato Elements
Sohag, also spelled Sawhaj, is a city that sits on the west bank of the River Nile in Egypt between Luxor and Cairo. It might be slightly further north than some of the other warmest places in Egypt but Sohag is ranked the 5th driest place in the country and the 9th in the world.
The city was only truly unearthed by modern settlers in the mid-20th-century, but its architecture dates back more than 7,000 years with a cemetery from the first dynasty still standing in the southern province of Sohag. Its Islamic monuments of the Fatimid era such as the El-Atiq Mosque or el-Farshuti Mosque (the old mosque) are also big pull factors to the city for both tourists and religious pilgrims.
Covering a stretch of the Nile Valley, inner Sohag is characterized by its dusty landscape, palm-tree-lined stips, and traditional houses. The Sohag National Museum also sits on the riverbanks opposite the governorates building and the modern structure is modeled after a two-story Ancient Egyptian Temple. It is designed to seamlessly fit in with the arid landscape as well as symbolize the integral role of the Sohag Nile in the lives of the local community and Sohag’s prosperity.
A trove of antiquities is housed in the basement gallery, which took 25 years to complete, including artifacts from ongoing excavations of the temple of Ramses II in Akhmim.
Like much of Egypt, Sohag has long, scorching summers where temperatures rarely drop below 80 degrees Fahrenheit and highs can reach 102. Over the course of the year, Sohag won’t get much cooler than 45 degrees Fahrenheit with humidity at around 50 percent and an average of 0.76mm of rainfall monthly. Yep, that doesn’t even qualify as one day of rainfall per month.
Photo by antonpetrus on Envato Elements
With vibrant coral reefs, turquoise waters, palm-lined promenades, and white sand beaches, Hurghada proves that the warmest places in Egypt aren’t all arid deserts and there’s plenty to offer in the way of sun-soaked, seaside relaxation. That said, Hurghada is also a great vantage point for dune adventures, desert camel hikes, and safaris, presenting the best of both worlds when it comes to Egyptian getaways.
This resort town stretches 40 kilometers along Egypt’s eastern Red Sea coast. Similar to nearby holiday hotspots like Sharm El-Sheikh, Hurghada is well-regarded for its scuba diving, dive shops, and dive schools than are dotted around the modern Sakalla district. Hurghada is also a popular leave point for liveaboard dive trips in Egypt with a generous mix of wrecks and reefs within easy reaching distance of its shores.
From whale sharks to manta rays, turtles, barracudas, and dolphins there is as much to see below the surface of the water as there is above. Even if you don’t fancy donning all the professional gear, the colorful reefs offer great snorkeling for budding marine fanatics of all experience levels.
Hurghada is also a place for a typically lusted beach getaway. Resort hotels line the long stretches of sand, usually owning their own sections of private beach for guests to enjoy. Great restaurants, bars, nightlife, and shopping can all be found in Hurghada but you can also get your dose of culture here with the old town, or El Dahar, being home to a smattering of quaint Egyptian coffee shops and souks.
Hurghada benefits from a subtropical desert climate with very hot and dry summers, warm winters, and year-round sunshine. The ocean breeze and water-focused activities can come as welcome relief from scorching summer highs. Between April and October, average temperatures hover around 90 degrees Fahrenheit but visit during the winter months for cooler averages around 80 and guaranteed sun.
When is the best time to visit Egypt?
The best time to visit Egypt is outside of the scorching summer months when temperatures are cooler but you can still expect sun. Between October and April daily highs often hit 80 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit but evenings are much chillier. Egypt experiences very little rainfall nationwide and guaranteed sunshine wherever you go.
Can you swim in the Red Sea?
There is a host of different marine life calling the Red Sea home, but you can swim off Egypt’s east coasts safely, as long as you follow local guidelines. This might mean staying between the flags on beaches when currents are strong, and avoiding swimming in too deep water without a boat nearby for the same reasons, but also because some of Egypt’s resort towns aren’t strangers to occasional shark attacks.
Egypt demonstrates relatively low crime rates and the major cities only score high when it comes to petty theft and muggings. Over the years, visitors have suffered armed robbers, car thefts, and even sexual assault, with female harassment rates in Cairo being much higher than in other global megacities, but this doesn’t mean Egypt isn’t safe to visit, you just need to take some extra precautions, especially if traveling alone.
Esmé is an English literature graduate and freelance writer. Originally from London, Esmé is lucky enough to call Bali home. Her travels have taken her from the far corners of the East to the islands of the Caribbean. When she's not writing, you'll find her lying on a beach somewhere, lost in a crime novel.
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Is the month over? It’s over – at least the work week, in oh, 3 1/2 hours. Counting, definitely counting. I was appointed to this case, and my, I am busy!
But that doesn’t mean I haven’t had time for this and that’s, right!
So, in no particular order
Passover fun was had by all!
I may have made my last flipbook. I think I’m over it. I’m not sure.
So, as I mentioned, I was spacing out my swaps, not over committing, so it wasn’t flipbook overload. I think I’m just over it. I don’t know. I’m over the washi tape, that’s for sure. Whoever called it tape didn’t really know what tapes’ function is. I found myself adding layers and layers of washi to get the washi below it to stick. The pages were actually pretty securely put together with hinges, and glue, but then I decorated with washi – and the decorative washi wouldn’t stick. Oy! In any event, this was a flip I made for a Paris swap through Facebook. I bought the printable graphics on Etsy, and with them, I made journal cards, shaker gatefold flaps (with the fuse tool) (you can see them clipped together in the above photo – when you take the paperclip off, underneath is a pocket with goodies), and a snow globe! Crazy! I finally used my holiday card, snow globe die –
I bought this die two years ago from Papertrey Ink, thinking I was going to make my own holiday cards, with Lemon and Olive in the snow globe. That didn’t happen. I don’t know why I thought Paris and snow globe, but it clicked, and I think it turned out cute. I was in such a creating frenzy, though, I didn’t think to photograph the process until I was all done. So, basically what you do is use the outline die to create a base. Then, you cut the top of the shaker out of decorative paper, and sticky foam. You then layer the base, your sprinkles, the foam, a clear circle vellum/plastic window, and then the top – voila! A shaker globe. For whatever reason, my sprinkle stuff got caught in my sticky foam, so it doesn’t really really shake, what can you do. Be more careful I guess. But, I wasn’t about to rip it open and make another. And for sprinkles – see that circle die? It makes snowflakes, and confetti – pretty cool!
Now that I’m thinking about it, and rambling along, I think that my “over it” feeling about flipbooks is that I’d rather make them for someone who I’m regularly corresponding with then a one-time swap with a passing stranger. I feel like this is something I’d want to make for a penpal after we’ve exchanged a few letters, and I was making something for someone I kind of ‘knew.” Too bad I unceremoniously abandoned all of my penpals after my father died, and my Wendori was lost forever.
I did make one more, that I didn’t photograph, for a swap on swap-bot, and I enjoyed it more because it was an offshoot from another swap wherein the person had asked me to write back, and I felt like the “project” was more of an elaborate envelope than this humungous thing:
All said and done, between the cover, and the flaps, I decorated 10 pages, filled a bunch of pockets, and spent many nights after work assembling, fusing, die cutting and tweaking. The ‘elaborate envelope” was like this, made from one sheet of 12 x 12 paper, with flaps made from simple, creative cutting. This little, hour long project, was fun, and relaxing, and I can see more of these in the future. The ten page, humungous flipmonster – not so much.
I investigated, and bought a new planner. In my last post of last year, I mentioned that I had my MIL buy me a faux Midori Traveler’s notebook online from an Etsy seller, Dokkipaper, for Hanukkah. I remain supremely happy with my present, the leather just keeps getting softer, and a bit more scuffed with loved. But the calendar insert that I printed for myself is set to run out in June, and I have to decide where my planning is going next. So, I fell down the crazy, deep internet whirlhole of planner communities. At first, I was seduced by the Happy Planner, and joined a half dozen Happy Planner Facebook groups, without actually buying said planner. After a few weeks of watching everyone sticker up their months, days and weeks, I decided that wasn’t for me. I also became less transfixed with the Arc system of rings – it seemed hard to flip the paper, and heavy, really heavy. So, I unjoined all of those groups, and joined Christy Tomlinson’s Planner Society FB group, because while almost everyone is subscribed to her Planner Kit Club, everyone is in a different planner. I then became enamored with the Kikki K’s, the big ones, the A5 size. Hmm, do I really want that big thing, I thought, and if I do, do I really want it for planning? I mean, that’s a big thing to whip out in court and check a date. So, I did some soul searching, and realized, yeah, I am supremely happy with my TN, why would I change? I must be yearning for something else. And, that something else, I concluded was more of a memory keeping journal, to help me along with my Project Life, and to be more of a daily journal/diary. In my original post about my TN, I mentioned that one of my inserts was a “Morning Pages” booklet. Er, that didn’t last long. And, since I had pasted a copy of the sentencing guidelines (because everyone has that in their planner!) in the back of my calendar, I had started leaving it out on courtroom tables, and I became concerned that I might lose it a la the Wendori, and then my morning thoughts would be out there for everyone – what thoughts they were, I wasn’t exactly a daily journaler. So, the solution, it seems is to have a planner, my TN with a new calendar insert, and a big thing I can keep at home, beside my t.v. chair, to update daily.
So, I wistfully looked at everyone’s pretty Kikki K’s, and could not bring myself to spend that much money ($90+ shipping) on a planner, even a pretty planner. So, deciding to plan within my means, I begin investigating the Webster’s Pages Color Crush Planners, which right now are on super sale on Blitsy (with the Mother’s Day coupon code). They’re similar to the Kikki K’s, but faux leather, and not quite a true A5 size. But, there was just something about them that I didn’t like. Well not just something, the guts of it – the inserts. First, the calendars are dated, so I’d have already lost nearly half the year. And second, it has a snap closure. I want to punch holes into things and stick it in my memory planner, and I don’t want to be constrained by a snap. So, while I had an A5 Color Crush planner in my basket on the Blitsy site, and post coupon, it was only $42.95 with shipping, I couldn’t hit the commit button. Instead, I got sucked into the youtube planner channels, and after not careful, but “I want that” consideration, I decided to go with the Heidi Swapp Memory Planner.
There it was – right in it’s name – the memory planner. Exactly what I was looking for. A kind of planner, a kind of abbreviated scrapbook, a kind of journal. That’s the right planner, I thought. So, that’s the “I want it” part – the careful part – well, I threw careful to the wind. The online reviews of the planner aren’t so good – that the holes all have to be repunched because they were punched too small, that the binder feels cheap, etc. But, you get what you pay for, and after my 40% off coupon at Michael’s, and a free shipping code that Michael’s gave me after I left the planner sitting in the cart overnight (so smart of them! push me over the edge into purchasing with a shipping code!), it was only $20. So, I reasoned, if the binder is crap (and all of the warning signs are there that it just might be), I can always put the inserts, which, along with the photo sleeve inserts are the reason I was buying the thing anyway, into another binder, like this one from Dokkipaper, a kind of faux Kikki K, faux Dokibook, which is also snapless. ah, but you may say, how will you do that because Heidi Swapp’s isn’t really A5, and it has only 4 holes. Solved that one – I’ve already seen someone on the Planner Society FB group punch the extra two holes, and put it in a traditional A5 planner, so I think I’ll be good. So, for now, I’ll try out the cheap binder, and see how it goes – and I’ll let you know.
All of that rambling has left my exhausted, like poor little Olive after playing with her ball outside all day, and then scarfing down her dinner.
Bring on 2016! My Planner System is Ready to Go!
December 31, 2015 | 2 Comments
Hello my friends! It’s been awhile, I know, but I’ve just been prepping for back to back trials since the end of October. Two ended up pleading, and one went to trial. I have one more to go in January, and then it’ll be easy peasy sailing for awhile.
I’ve been a total knitting machine, finishing up the Stephen West KAL (uch – why???? gifted to my MIL), finishing up Water (gifted to my mother), a few other holiday gifts, and a sweater I started awhile back for me. Joe broke is foot back in September, and we’ve really become sedentary t.v. junkies. Hopefully, in January, he’ll be cleared for regular duty work (he’s on light duty now), and the treadmill, and we’ll be able to peel ourselves away from the time suck t.v. I intended to do a few top ten end of the year posts – movies, t.v., etc., but I didn’t – so here are my Bests of the Year (I am totally off the cuff rambling – I had intended to just post about my new planner – and I’m totally flying stream of consciousness here)
Best Farewell to a TV Show – Madmen – not the whole season but there were fine moments
And that’s about all I can think of right now. So, what about that planner?
Last year, I made my own Midori Traveler’s Notebook, a Wendori just for me. I found a leather company online that kind of giggled about how little leather I wanted to order, followed a few tutorials, and viola! I made my own inserts, and it was really the “vessel” for all of my penpaling. And then – disaster struck – I lost it. I’m a clumsy person, I break things, but it really isn’t my nature to actually lose things – and the few things I have lost, I haven’t lost forever. For instance, I accidentally threw Joe’s high school ring in the ocean – and a year later, someone found it, and returned it to his parents who live at the beach. I really really expected the planner to find it’s way back to me. And, while I waited, I didn’t get a new planner, and I didn’t write any letters – because all of the letters I had to answer were in the Wendori, as well as all of my addresses. True, I easily could have rebuilt my address book, and started with fresh letters, but again, I was convinced, any day, the planner, which contained my business cards, would be returned.
Until now. I thought about making my own again, but I didn’t have anything to tell my mother-in-law to get me for Hanukkah, so I went shopping on Etsy, and found this really inexpensive fauxdori on Etsy from a Japanese seller – normally, I would just say no because of the postage, but the cover was on sale for $15, and it came with five premade booklet inserts, a craft file, a clip, and a bookmark. So, the postage was more than made up for in the price and the extras. And, I have to say – it’s awesome! The leather is really soft, It has a nice leather thing that holds my pen, and it also came with extra elastics.
The cover looks a little scratched up, but that’s because the leather is so soft! It’s definitely developing character right out of the box.
So, right now, I have three inserts, and this felt card holder, that also came from Dokipaper. Unlike my Wendori, in which I printed and bound all of the inserts myself, the only insert I made this time is the calendar –
The PDF for the calendar is from BohoCottage. The blocks are a tad small, but the next page which I didn’t photograph is a week on two pages, and there’s a week on two page spread for each week of the month. I could have gone for something a little boxier, with more room, but I wanted it to be pretty. For the cover, I just took one of the stapled premade inserts that came with the leather cover apart, and sewed that cover onto the pages – which was nice, because I could trim the pages to the craft cover with confidence that they would be exactly the right size.
Next, I have a bullet journal. As you can see, I’ve decorated the craft file folder (which also came with original package from Dokipaper) and taped a photo on the cover. But, let’s be clear, Bullet Journaling is nothing more complicated than a day by day to do list. That’s it. With that said, it’s kind of amazing that I got sucked down the internet rabbit hole of bullet journaling – pinterest, youtube, Facebook. Which then lead to down the path to planner creation, decoration, etc, looking at one Erin Condren, Happy Planner, whatever, after another. At the end of it, I came to the conclusion that more decorating does not equate to more planning, and it’s more time consuming, and more work, to have stickers, sticky tabs, washi tape, whatnots, whatever than to just make a good ol’ list with whatever pen I have on hand. I get that it’s fun to decorate your planner, but honestly, I can only decorate so many things – and I’ve committed myself (at least in my head), to get the Project Life going again next year. Also, I can’t pull out a washi’d up planner in court. I’m already regretting the stickered up craft folder, even though it does label what’s in the folder – ephemera for the newly reborn pocket scrap project.
So, here’s my bare bones bullet journal. As you can see, I have dated to do lists. When I complete a task, I check the box. When I decide to move a task to another day, I draw an arrow through the box. When an item sits, I leave the box blank, and at the end of the month I’ll decide whether they’re really still “to do” and then move then to the next month. or I’ll cross them off. The page before this list is an index, the facing page, is a “collection” – a list that’s not a to do list – but has a theme. So far, in my bullet journal, I have “Sentencings,” “Where are the Addi’s” to keep track of where my interchangeable knitting needles are, “Things to Sew in 2016,” “House Projects” and “Waiting on” which is an itemization of things I’m waiting on – things that are supposed to come in the mail, things people are supposed to hand in to me at work, things I’m waiting on in my cases, etc. And that’s it. Easy peasy. If it’s a daily to do, it goes on a list, if it’s a random thought, idea, whatever, I create a collection. The collections are logged in the index so I can easily find them, and that’s it. Would I like it to look spiffier? Maybe, I don’t know. I really don’t think so. I think this works, and that’s it.
The morning pages booklet is just a lined booklet that came with the cover. I really find the practice of free writing in the morning so helpful in so many ways. Scattered thoughts find their way together. I find myself remembering words that I don’t use when I speak, but always used when I wrote – words that remind me that choosing the right word is so much more rewarding that using the same lazy words over and over again – see, redundant popped into my head right away – such a better word than over and over.
So, that’s my system going into 2016. Good luck with your own system, or no system, or whatever 2016 brings!
Lemon and Olive
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Pros: A smarter, redesigned sequel to Apple’s entry-level iPod, containing the best features from prior iPod shuffle generations with relatively few and small compromises. Restored five-button control scheme is augmented by new VoiceOver and battery level button, while support for remote controls remains. New polished metal body may appeal to some users; size is nearly as small as one could expect a device with these features to become without compromising the usability of the button-based control system. Available in five different colors, each with a matching rear clip for easy wearing. Affordable.
Cons: Features are not competitive with rival products at the same price. Even slower than unimpressive predecessor for music and file transfers. Initial collection of colors is muted and somewhat dull by comparison with the best past iPod models; some may find the polished texture to be too slippery. Included USB cable is tiny. Only one storage capacity.
Apple’s original iPod shuffle was easy to understand when it debuted in January 2005. Back then, Apple was on the cusp of becoming a mass-market retailer, and the least expensive model in its iPod lineup was the $249 iPod mini. Apple needed something really cheap for kids and grandparents, an iPod it could sell at Walmart and use to build market share in developing countries. So the original screenless, Click Wheel-less, fancy box-less $99 iPod shuffle made sense. It had a big play button, a ring with small track and volume buttons, one port for earphones, one port for charging, a necklace so that you could wear it, and a rechargeable battery inside. Dead simple.
But as the years passed, it became confusing. Every competing device in its price range grew a screen, and Apple refused to follow suit. Instead, Apple tried to find justifications to keep the shuffle around, switching its plastic body to metal with the second-generation version, and making it even smaller. Then, with the release of last year’s third-generation model, the shuffle officially became silly, losing its buttons entirely and becoming a bland-looking metal stick with a clip on the back. It looked and felt like a designers’ in-joke that had somehow made it to market, ease of use and iconic looks be damned. We called it the “worst iPod ever,” and time proved the design to be even more problematic than we’d expected: moisture-related shorting problems with its remote-controlled earphones eventually forced Apple into a rare public recall and replacement program.
To Apple’s credit, the fourth-generation iPod shuffle (2GB/$49) arrived faster than its predecessors, which typically survived for two or so years before receiving refreshes. This time, the company has played things safe: the new iPod shuffle isn’t fancy, revolutionary, or “impossibly” anything—on the surface, it looks like a more conservative redesign of the second-generation model than last year’s version. It also debuts at the lowest launch price point ever for a new iPod, matching the mid-lifecycle $49 asking price of the 1GB second-generation shuffle prior to its discontinuation. And the feature set will be completely familiar to anyone who has followed the shuffle family for the past two years.
But there’s more to the story than that. Some of the third-generation iPod shuffle’s better design and electronic changes have made their way into the new version, so we discuss them—and more—in our comprehensive review below. While you can skip straight to our conclusion that the fourth-generation model is the best overall iPod shuffle yet, there are audio, battery, and transfer speed details worth noting, and we explain the reasoning behind our rating below, as well. Read on for the details, and our buying advice, by selecting from the seven pages above and below.
Apple has used every new iPod shuffle as an opportunity to shrink the size of both its music players and its packaging, and though the fourth-generation model breaks a little from that tradition, it continues in the same general direction. Like the second- and third-generation models, it’s made primarily from aluminum, this time either silver with black plastic controls, or colored pink, blue, orange, or green with white plastic controls. There’s still a metal clip on the back, adorned with the Apple logo, while a model number, international electronic certification tags, and a “Designed by Apple in California” inscription are found underneath the clip, invisible unless you’re looking for them. The serial number is hidden on the pinching edge of the clip in squint-inducing text.
While our pictures make the size differences between the models fairly obvious, the specific numbers are worth noting for spec-obsessed readers. The most obvious comparison is between the new model and its second-generation predecessor, which it most resembles: this year’s version measures 1.14” tall by 1.24” wide by 0.34” deep and weighs 0.44 ounces, slightly taller than the second-generation iPod shuffle (1.07”) but smaller in each other dimension (1.62” wide by 0.41” deep) and lighter (down from 0.73 ounces), besides.
An 18% increase in the size of the circular “control pad” on the face of the device is obvious when doing comparisons, seemingly to leave as little empty space on the front as possible—a trick to make you think the new shuffle couldn’t be smaller if Apple tried. The overall slimming otherwise feels like a nice improvement if you use the late 2006 shuffle as a benchmark. Relative to the third-generation shuffle, however, the new model is a volumetric step back. Last year’s version was 1.8” tall by 0.7” wide and 0.3” deep, weighing 0.38 ounces and possessing a “true volume” of 0.26 cubic inches, relative to the 0.5 cubic inch second-generation shuffle and the 0.35 cubic inch fourth-generation model. Seeing the third- and fourth-generation models next to each other leaves no doubt that the new one is a little larger overall, though the improved functionality will guarantee that no one complains about the increased size.
The fourth-generation iPod shuffle also features a subtly redesigned housing, using a smart engineering trick from the third-generation iPod shuffle to create the impression that its body is sculpted from a single piece of aluminum, contrasting with the aluminum frame and plastic core of the second-generation model—and most past iPod nanos. As with last year’s shuffle, the new model’s top, bottom, sides, and back are now entirely metallic save for the controls; a circular metal button and three-way switch are found on the device’s top surface, off to the right of its headphone port and a tiny status indicator light. Apple has done away with the scratchable stainless steel shirt clip it introduced last year, replacing it with a color-matched aluminum version like the second-generation model’s, only smaller than the rest of the shuffle’s back, a change that parallels the reduced-size clip of the third-generation shuffle. The clip fits within the outline of a thin seam in the shuffle’s back, exposing the second metal piece of the shuffle’s body: a rear compartment that service technicians can use to assemble and disassemble the device.
Apple has also tweaked the new shuffle’s metals in some interesting ways. Except for a single special edition stainless steel version, prior models were generally made from a matte-finished anodized aluminum in a wide variety of colors; that’s changed. The five current versions use metal that’s been polished to a finish that’s not as glossy as the car paint-like fifth-generation iPod nano, but still shiny; some users may find the rear surface to be too slippery to handle with wet fingers. More important in our view are Apple’s latest color choices, which include tones that aren’t necessarily as bright as their predecessors—a change that detracts from the otherwise positive design attributes of the new shuffles.
Apple’s new orange, for instance, is a dull copper color by comparison with the vibrant second-generation shuffle and more recent iPod nanos; the blue is just on the edge of purple, while green and pink are somewhat muted. As always, you’ll need to see the new models in person to determine whether one of the new tones calls out to you; we found them to be less than thrilling across the board. Apple also decided to remove the swirled metal finish from the circular top controls; they’re now just flat gray metal surfaces regardless of the color of the shuffle, a small but cheapening touch.
One thing that can’t help but impress iPod fans is the new shuffle’s box, which has the smallest footprint ever for an iPod package while preserving the clear plastic and white cardboard combination that has worked so well for the past two shuffle generations. The rounded cube box opens to reveal the shuffle suspended on its own plastic insert in front of a compartment for accessories—a short USB-to-headphone-port charging and synchronization cable identical to the one packed with third-generation shuffles, a pair of earphones, plus one Apple logo sticker, a diminutive but almost completely explanatory “Quick Start Guide,” and a comically small warranty booklet.
The iPod shuffle USB Cable is 45mm (1.6”) long, or too short to wrap from the back of most of Apple’s desktop computers all the way around to the front, while the Earphones have enough length to stretch from the average user’s ears all the way down to his or her waist. Note that the earphones no longer have the in-line remote control that was included with last year’s model and so troubled by moisture during workouts; they’re just a plain pair of Apple earbuds.
Using the Fourth-Generation iPod shuffle
As with all iPod models, you’ll need to download Apple’s free media management program iTunes before you can use the new iPod shuffle, then connect the device with its special USB cable to any free USB port on your computer. iTunes organizes your music, podcasts, and audiobooks for individual or collective transfer onto the device. Once again, Apple includes a feature in iTunes that will shrink your songs down to a maximum 128kbps to take up less space on the shuffle, enabling you to store up to 500 tracks on the 2GB device at once. You can also use the iPod shuffle as a flash storage drive for your Mac or PC, using the computer’s desktop to drag and drop files into its modestly-sized main folder.
Once you’ve loaded the shuffle with audio, you can either leave it connected to your computer to fully recharge its battery—the level of which is indicated upon disconnection with a green (“50% to full”) / amber (“25%”) / red (“battery low”) light on its top—or start using it right away. Thankfully, there’s nothing intimidating this time about the controls. Last year’s buttonless model required a convoluted scheme to navigate tracks, but with the return of the shuffle’s built-in buttons, the challenge is gone: the new model is nearly as easy to use as the first- and second-generation models.
On its face are five of its six buttons: the oversized play/pause button is strictly for those features, with + and – volume buttons above and below it, plus track backwards and forwards buttons to its left and right. As with all iPod shuffles, this version’s screenless design restricts you to navigating either in a linear fashion through your collection of songs, or randomizing (“shuffling”) playback so that hitting the forward track button moves to something unexpected. You flip between ordered and shuffled play by moving the top power switch from its far right “off” position into far left “Shuffle” position or middle “ordered playback” position, all control carry-overs that have survived from the very first iPod shuffle.
Last year’s shuffle introduced an additional feature, VoiceOver, which speaks the name of the currently playing song or playlist, for the first time enabling the shuffle to contain and switch between multiple playlists. Previously, you activated VoiceOver by holding down the play/pause button, but Apple now wisely gives this feature its own button—the one that’s on top of the shuffle alongside the power switch. Pressing this button quickly says the song title, holding it says the playlist’s title, and hitting it twice provides verbal battery status so that you needn’t rely solely upon the three-colored power indicator on the shuffle’s top, or flip the power switch back and forth as was necessary in the past, a small but welcome improvement. Hitting the track forward or backward button while you’re in VoiceOver mode switches to a different playlist, while the play/pause button selects it. The new iPod shuffle can also synchronize “Genius Mixes” from iTunes, which are just automatically created playlists of songs iTunes says will sound good together.
If you loved last year’s shuffle or just want to know whether you can still control it with an in-line remote, good news: the answer’s yes. Plug in any Apple or authorized third-party three-button remote control and the volume, play/pause, track control, and VoiceOver features work just as they did before, relying very heavily upon the central remote control button and a sometimes confusing system of multiple clicks and holds to change tracks.
In summary, the fourth-generation iPod shuffle combines the second-generation version’s ease of use with the third-generation model’s multiple playlist, VoiceOver, and battery status verbalization support. From a user experience standpoint, it’s a lot easier to like than last year’s model, and we’d be a lot more likely to actually clip this one on than its predecessor. Notably, the rear clip is firm enough that the shuffle’s not going anywhere when it’s on your shirt; wristband, armband, and other accessories should be considered strictly optional for wearing this model.
Capacity, Transfer Speeds, and Value
Over the years, Apple has offered iPod shuffles in either one or two storage capacities at a time, twice introducing the device with only one capacity and later adding a second at a higher or lower price point. For the time being, the fourth-generation iPod shuffle comes only in a single version that officially has 2 Gigabytes of storage capacity, but actually provides 1.88GB of usable space, with 1.83GB initially available for audio content. That’s enough for between 250 and 500 songs, depending on the size of the songs, and to a minor extent whether you turn VoiceOver on. If so, iTunes will pre-generate spoken song titles and artist names that add roughly 10MB per gigabyte of songs—not much, but enough to cut the capacity down a little.
Every year, we test new iPod models against prior models to see whether Apple has improved, held constant, or noticeably diminished the quality of their internal components. Since it’s so small and limited in features, the iPod shuffle doesn’t have much to evaluate, save for audio quality, transfer speeds, and battery life. To compare iTunes transfer speeds—the time that it takes to fill an iPod shuffle with music—we used a 1-Gigabyte test playlist with 180 songs of various lengths and sizes, starting with an empty third-generation iPod shuffle and an empty fourth-generation iPod shuffle. As we’ve noted in the past, shuffles are generally very slow compared with Apple’s other iPods, so you wind up sitting around for a while waiting for a relatively small amount of music to transfer. Last year’s tests showed the iPod nano to be 3.6 times faster than the shuffle, a sluggish pace that may matter to people who want to quickly load up their shuffles with new music and run out of the house.
In this year’s testing, the third-generation shuffle took 5 minutes, 23 seconds to transfer the 1GB of music with iTunes 10—nearly identical to the time we saw during last year’s test with iTunes 9. Surprisingly, the fourth-generation shuffle took an even longer 5 minutes and 54 seconds to transfer the same 1GB playlist with iTunes 10, plus an additional 5 seconds to complete the synchronization process. Another way of looking at these results: if you’re planning to completely refresh the contents of your 2GB iPod shuffle with frequency, leave yourself roughly 11 minutes per refill plus the time it takes to select the new songs, with fewer minutes necessary if you’re only adding or removing handfuls of songs at a time.
Then there’s the issue of value for the dollar. Though doing straight GB-for-the-dollar value assessments isn’t entirely fair with some iPods given the other features they include, the iPod shuffle’s extremely bare and only modestly evolving feature set makes such comparisons reasonable. Back in February 2008, Apple introduced the first 2GB iPod shuffle for $69; in September 2009, it released a $59 2GB model, and the new 2GB model sells for $49—the lowest price yet for an iPod with this storage capacity. It goes without saying that this fourth-generation shuffle offers the most affordable way to enter the iPod family and to give an iPod as a gift, although as with all previous iPod shuffle models, you give up so much of the functionality of a full-fledged iPod that you need to go in with modest expectations.
Other sub-$100 options include refurbished iPod nanos, which at press time sell for $99 with 8GB of storage capacity, video playback, recording, and gaming capabilities, superior battery life, and nine color options, and products from Apple’s competitors, which have been considerably more aggressive in adding screens, radios, and other features to their $50 and similarly low-end models. While the iPod shuffle is an affordable iPod, and one of the smallest music players out there, it’s just not a great value when the broader marketplace of options is considered.
Battery and Charging
Thanks to its built-in lithium-ion rechargeable battery, the fourth-generation iPod shuffle promises 15 hours of audio playback—a number that is a little more complex than it initially seems. First, that’s up by 50% from a claimed 10 hours in the third-generation shuffle, versus 12 promised hours in the first- and second-generation models. Second, Apple’s promised run times for iPod shuffles have always been conservative, with actual battery life surpassing the claims by variable amounts from model to model. First-generation shuffles actually ran for 16-18 hours, while second-generation models hit nearly 18, and third-generation models ran for around 12.5 in our tests.
Our battery testing for the fourth-generation iPod shuffle showed performance almost precisely in line with Apple’s claims: set at 50% volume with a pair of Apple’s Earphones connected, and randomly playing audio files at various bitrates ranging up to Lossless quality, the new shuffle ran for 15 hours and 10 minutes before chiming and turning off. While different audio settings and files can yield slightly better or worse results, this playtime places the fourth-generation shuffle ahead of the third-generation model in run time, but modestly below the first- and second-generation versions—an acceptable rather than impressive performance.
Charging the fourth-generation iPod shuffle is just like charging its predecessor. Apple’s included 45mm USB cable connects to the device’s headphone port, and provides a full charge within 3 hours, bringing a dead shuffle back to 80% of peak capacity within 2 hours. The company also sells a $19 accessory set called the iPod shuffle USB Cable with a spare 45mm cable and a 1000mm (39”) version in the same box if you want additional cables; any spare USB port or Apple iPod wall charger will work to refuel the little device. Note that the iPod shuffle remains the only iPod model that cannot simultaneously recharge and play music through headphones, as the headphone port is occupied by the special USB cable.
The single best piece of news about the fourth-generation iPod shuffle relates to its sound quality, which has—at least under certain circumstances—noticeably improved over the third-generation version. Since the 2005 release of the original iPod shuffle, Apple has played a somewhat unusual game with the iPod shuffle’s sound chips, initially claiming that the first model’s audio had become the gold standard for the entire iPod family, and subsequently making changes that saw later shuffle models fall short of improved and more expensive iPods.
This year’s iPod shuffle is the best-sounding member of its family to date, though the differences aren’t especially noticeable when the device is used with Apple’s packed-in earphones—the ones that most people will wind up using with the shuffle until they break. We currently test all iPods, iPhones, and iPads with extremely high-end Ultimate Ears UE-11 earphones that reveal all of the hiss, clicks, and beeping noises that a device inadvertently puts out, as well as the crispness of treble, smoothness of midrange, and richness of bass heard when music is playing—all of the details that can be heard with earphones that cost $150 and up, plus some that are only audible with the most deluxe gear.
Apple clearly didn’t build some of its iPods to be used with super-premium headphones, but the fourth-generation shuffle is an exception: it’s up there with the best of them. As we noted in our review of the second-generation shuffle, there used to be a very audible level of background hiss during silences that Apple reduced markedly in the third-generation model, but accidentally offset with some signaling beeps at the same time. The fourth-generation model cuts the hiss down to a level that’s basically inaudible with high-end earphones, and removes the beeps, together creating near-silent transitions from song to song, plus cleaner sound when tracks are playing. Voices consequently stand out more from instruments playing in the background, and Apple has made small tweaks to the treble and bass, generally to positive effect. While we noticed an ever-so-slight tendency towards sibilance—a dragging of S sounds—in the treble, it’s offset by more powerful bass that generally makes songs richer and more engrossing than before. Flipping between the third-generation and fourth-generation shuffles, there was no doubt that we’d prefer to listen to songs on the newer model, and that’s exactly the sort of improvement we’re always happy to report.
From an accessory standpoint, the single best feature of the fourth-generation iPod shuffle is that it no longer requires you to buy the $20 remote control accessories—or $20-$30 more expensive custom remote-laden headphones—that were needed just to operate last year’s model. With the exception of specific remote add-ons made by several companies to fit only the third-generation shuffle, the majority of iPod-agnostic remotes and earphones we’ve seen still work with the fourth-generation model, as do the third-generation shuffle charging and synchronization cables Apple and others released last year.
On the other hand, cases designed for prior iPod shuffles will not work with this model. While iPod shuffle cases have been the family’s least popular for years, with very few companies still producing options, H2O Audio’s waterproof designs and the few color shifting shells we’ve seen over the past year will need to be redesigned to accommodate the new model’s dimensions and buttons. Until and unless that happens, the fourth-generation iPod shuffle will be limited to Apple’s primary intended use model, hanging either at shirt or at belt level from its included clip.
After a tough year and a half with the third-generation iPod shuffle, Apple has returned to form with the fourth-generation model—a less expensive, better-designed alternative that incorporates the features people liked from past models without unnecessarily tossing anything out in the process. While the new iPod shuffle is so familiar as to seem retrograded, its form factor is surely an improvement over anything that came before under the shuffle name, and moreover, the capacity and features it offers for $49 are the best Apple has ever assembled at this entry-level price point.
On the other hand, the reality is that even a good iPod shuffle is a tougher sell today than it was in years past—even its predecessors felt long in the tooth conceptually, as competitors continued to push much harder than Apple to improve their low-end offerings with conveniences such as screens and superior controls. It’s a sad fact that $50 can today purchase a 4GB device with a screen, integrated FM radio, and voice recording capabilities from a company such as SanDisk, whereas the same dollars buy a hobbled but “cute” 2GB player like this from Apple. It’s especially surprising that in order to get a screen and better features, your only iPod option is a full $100 more expensive, unless you’re willing to consider refurbished and/or discontinued models. With its comparable size, rear clip, and similar color offerings, the sixth-generation iPod nano feels more like the heir apparent to the iPod shuffle family than this model does; in an alternate universe, Apple might have killed this shuffle altogether and offered the new nano in a less capacious starting model for $99. It would have made a lot of sense.
But that hasn’t happened, and so for users who are looking for an iPod-branded device with a shiny new shell and familiar interface, the fourth-generation iPod shuffle is a solid buy—assuming that the new slate of colors and single 2GB capacity currently being offered meet your needs. Even though there have been more exciting colors, higher-capacity models, and more daring changes in past shuffle releases, the latest iPod shuffle has enough going for it to satisfy the many fans who told us last year that all they’d wanted was the prior model back. This new model is essentially the second-generation shuffle, but with better sound, a smaller and glossier body, and a couple of new interface frills, markedly improving from last year’s C-rated version, and thereby meriting our flat B rating and general recommendation. If this package of features is enough to satisfy your needs, we wouldn’t hesitate to point you in the new shuffle’s direction.
In mid-September 2012, Apple updated the fourth-generation iPod shuffle with a new set of eight colors. Purple, yellow, red, and black were added to silver, blue, green, and pink, while orange was removed from the lineup. The new colors were selected to align the 2012 shuffles with the colors of the as-yet-unreleased seventh-generation iPod nano, due in October.
Notably, Apple didn’t just change the 2012 iPod shuffle colors; it also shifted the texture. When the fourth-generation shuffle shipped in 2010, Apple was experimenting with a “polished” aluminum finish that was a compromise between the sandblasted and coated aluminum bodies of earlier iPod nanos. This finish was used for both the 2010 iPod shuffle and iPod nano, proving different but not particularly better than earlier treatments.
For 2012, polished aluminum has unceremoniously disappeared from Apple’s lineup. The refreshed iPod shuffle is back to a finely sandblasted texture that’s basically identical to earlier models, but with slight color differences.
The most noteworthy new shuffle is the black version, which brings one of Apple’s most stunning colors to the low-end model for the first time since the discontinuation of the ill-fated third-generation model. It’s one of only two current shuffles with a black control ring.
Apple’s new blue shuffle is close in color to early blue iPod minis and nanos, a little closer to aqua than the prior blue tone.
Yellow is just a little odd—on the fine edge of green, rather than the purer yellows of fourth- and fifth-generation iPod nanos, and certainly nothing like the golden first-generation iPod mini.
Purple has more red tint than the second-generation purple iPod shuffle, and looks nothing like the fourth- and fifth-generation purple iPod nanos—it could nearly pass for pink if there wasn’t a pink shuffle.
Pink is a rosy tone, with nowhere near the saturation of the second- and third-generation pink shuffles, but a similar softness to the 2010 fourth-generation shuffle: mature, not “fun” pink.
Silver has remained the same but for the texture, and the use of a black Apple logo rather than a white one.
Green has become closer to a pine color, though still on the light, faded side.
The new red version is clearly darker than the pink nano, but not terribly far from it in tone, and not as saturated as in some earlier red iPods. It has a (PRODUCT) RED marking on the back, and a (PRODUCT) RED card in the package, setting it apart from the other models.
Sonically and functionally, the new shuffles are basically the same as their predecessors, running the same Apple software and including the same pack-ins. You can tell which color shuffle’s in a box not only from the front, but also from the top and sides, which are color-matched to the device. Inside, you’ll get the same pair of older Apple Earphones; Apple’s newer and better EarPods are not bundled in, so if you’re interested, you’ll need to buy them separately.
Updated September 13, 2013: Gray
Updated September 13, 2013: This week, Apple replaced the black-colored iPod shuffle with “gray,” also known as “Space Gray,” shown in the pictures above. It’s matte-finished, slightly darker than silver, and notably lighter than both black and slate iPods sold in the past.
Our Rating
B
Recommended
Company and Price
Model: iPod shuffle (fourth-generation)
Jeremy Horwitz was the Editor-in-Chief at iLounge. He has written over 5,000 articles and reviews for the website and is one of the most respected members of the Apple media. Horwitz has been following Apple since the release of the original iPod in 2001. He was one of the first reviewers to receive a pre-release unit of the device, and his review helped put iLounge on the map as a go-to source for Apple news.
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Using the Fourth-Generation iPod shuffle
Capacity, Transfer Speeds, and Value
Battery and Charging
Our Rating
Company and Price
iLounge is an independent resource for all things iPod, iPhone, iPad, and beyond. iPod, iPhone, iPad, iTunes, Apple TV, and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc.
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Kevin Cloward Managing Partner For over 20 years, Kevin has enjoyed working alongside business owners and high net worth families to reach their maximum potential in business and life. He understands there is a blurred line between the two and having a strategy that can complement both is important. Kevin specializes in creating a custom approach for tax compliance, planning, and business advisory. His expertise is working with: family offices, multistate corporations, multistate partnerships, limited liability companies, and S-corporations. Kevin also supports high net worth individuals in industries including: real estate, restaurants, hospitality, manufacturing, professional services, and private equity. Education
Married to Brandi for more than 15 years and blessed with six children
Hobbies include spending time with family, hiking and strength training Gary Capata Partner Gary is a Certified Public Accountant who specializes in tax strategy, forensic accounting, and litigation support. He is a forensic accounting expert who has testified throughout California. Clients Gary has worked with include members of the entertainment community, closely held corporations, corporate executives, attorneys, and medical professionals. Educated at the University of Southern California, Gary earned his undergraduate degree in Accounting and an MBA in Taxation and Finance in 1977. After graduating, he garnered additional experience, knowledge and technical training at Arthur Young & Co. before founding CAPATA in 1986. Gary has taught numerous continuing education and university-level courses in tax and accounting services for these prestigious organizations:
American Institute of Certified Public Accountants
University of Southern California
University of California, Los Angeles In 2010, Gary was recognized by the California CPA Society when he received their Public Service award for his record of commitment to public service through participation in charitable, governmental, and volunteer work. Gary’s community activities have included:
City Council Member, and former Mayor of Laguna Niguel (2007 & 2011)
City Council Liaison to the Laguna Niguel Traffic and Transportation Commission; Investment, Banking and Audit
Committee; and the Parks and Recreation Commission
Board of Trustees – Group Insurance Trust CAL – CPA
Laguna Niguel Rotary, Chamber of Commerce, Lion’s Club Sal Kureh Partner Sal is responsible for the effective planning, execution, and delivery of our accounting, audit, and business advisory services. Sal oversees our team with the preparation of financial statements, due diligence, and other advisory services. He has more than 15 years of experience and has worked with clients in the biotechnology, manufacturing, software, mortgage and real estate both in the Big Four accounting firms and private industries as a CFO. Sal graduated with honors from the California State Polytech University, San Luis Obispo, CA, and holds a CPA license in the State of California.
In his free time, Sal enjoys playing and watching sports, primarily football and basketball and is an active member of his church St. Marks, in Irvine, CA. Ana Lemus Director of Operations Ana Lemus serves as our bilingual Director of Operations who oversees CAPATA's daily business activities. Ana leads example; she is passionate about delivering high quality work and takes initiatives to always improve our systems in place to better serve our community. Ana is Notary Public commissioned in California. She continues to further her education in Administration and Human Resources through various extensions courses in management. She is a motivated professional with an excellent work ethic who adds positive energy to the workplace. She is a long-time resident of Orange County. In her spare time, she enjoys spending time with her family outdoors.
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With the holidays right around the corner and a wave of new video games that have just recently come out it seems perfectly natural that some may be a bit flustered as to what they want for Christmas. So without further ado, here’s a list that’s perfect for that pesky relative who always asks you what you want for Christmas
The Red & Black has all of your holiday wishlist needs.
With Pokémon releasing Sun and Moon last November and trailblazing a whole new region for new and old fans, everyone was ecstatic. Now with the release of Ultra Sun and Moon, fans can continue their adventures in the Hawaii-based Alola region as a new Legendary Pokémon appears; Necrozma, who seems to take control of the previous game’s legendary Pokemon, named Nebby who could take a different form depending whether you purchase Sun or Moon. The game brings new buildings and new styles of clothing that weren’t present in the games predecessors. As the last game ever to be released on the Nintendo 3DS, it’s an amazing game that completes an amazing legacy.
This game for the Xbox console or computer is the “cat’s meow” and is reminiscent of a 1930s style cartoon, complete with jazz music, 1930s designs, and colorful background graphics. The game’s conflict is based on the main character Cuphead and his brother Mugman who must retrieve contracts from a series of crime bosses who have sold their souls to the devil, after making a deal with the devil themselves. This game is a platorm game that deals heavily with boss battles instead of drawn out levels, which is refreshing as it strays away from first person shooter games and breaths a breath of light fun that will keep you glued to your controller the entire time!
Do you like Lord of the Rings? Of course you do, who doesn’t? As you can probably guess this game takes place in the world of Lord of the Rings, known as Middle Earth. Taking place in between the events of the Hobbit and Fellowship of the Ring, this sequel to the revolutionary game middle earth, Shadow of Mordor. This game takes concepts presented in the first one, and builds as well as improves on them. A major concept brought from the last game is the bounty system, or villains remembering your character. If you beat up an orc and it escapes, next time you meet the same orc, it’ll remember you and target you in specific. That’s Insane! It’s these little details in the game that make it really impressive.
Chances are, if you have either of these consoles, you have this game. In case you don’t however, you don’t know what you’re missing out on. In The legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, you play as everyone’s favorite Hylian, Link, after he wakes up from a 100-year long coma with no memories of his past. The Hyrule he wakes up to has been destroyed by the evil force known as Calamity Gannon, an ancient evil that awakes every 100 years (what a coincidence!). Link must now recover his memories of the past all while awakening the four champions from the four corners of Hyrule in order to destroy Gannon. As for gameplay, Breath of the Wild takes place on an absolutely massive, open world map. The whole game focuses around the exploration of this map. You can travel anywhere in the world, no invisible walls or loading screens. The best part about this game is that you aren’t required to do anything, after a brief tutorial. You can run straight to Gannon armed with nothing but a rusty sword OR you could spend hundreds of hours collecting weapons, defeating bosses, completing shrines (hundreds of mini-dungeons placed throughout the continent), cooking, riding horses – whatever you want. The shear amount of things to do in this game is incredible. The game lets you play however you want and is extremely fun anyway you choose. It offers so much to do, it’s very well worth the price and time you may put into it.
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Julia Lyle will have nothing to do with domineering men, no matter how tall, dark, and sexy. But Dom Marcus Cavendish will be satisfied with nothing less than collaring the fiercely independent Julia.
Nothing could have shocked her more…
Julia Lyle is invited to her best friend’s wedding and is stunned when Lana kneels to accept her husband’s collar. When Julia starts to object, firm, relentless hands land on her shoulders. The man behind her threatens to turn her over his knee if she interrupts. She’s outraged, but there’s no doubt he’s serious.
After the ceremony, he offers her a glimpse into her friend’s lifestyle, if she’s brave enough to accept.
Master Marcus Cavendish is everything she doesn’t want in a man—dominant, self-assured and arrogant. So why can’t she resist him?
Telling herself that learning about the lifestyle will make her a better friend, Julia agrees to submit to Master Marcus, but only for the evening. Firm and unrelenting in his handling of her, he introduces her to his tawse and the pleasure/pain of a spanking delivered by a competent Dom. The experience unnerves her, making her question everything she thought she knew about relationships, and his forced orgasms leave her shattered.
No doubt the scene seduced her, and that makes her doubly determined to avoid him. She has fought hard for her freedom and vowed only to date nice men, and Master Marcus is anything but safe.
Marcus is undeterred. Julia is a natural sub. The way she responded to his touch, his voice, his punishment proved it. Now he has to convince her to yield to him, submitting to his tawse as she kneels to accept his collar
I’m a sucker for a story about an established Dom – someone who knows exactly what it is that they want and who can take the time to train a sub who doesn’t even know that she IS one and someone who’s actually kind of against the lifestyle in general.
That’s what we get in this introduction to the series. As the summary above says, Julia only becomes aware of the BDSM lifestyle because she’s been invited to her best friend Lana’s wedding, which turns out to be a combination wedding and collaring ceremony. Lana feels that Julia is the least likely to have issue with her choices, and while that should be true, it’s not since Julia is about to contest it during the celebration. Lucky for her, Marcus – MASTER Marcus is there to put a stop to her complaints when it could become problematic, and from there, we get to see exactly what it is that he’s capable of.
What was meant to be just one night for Julia we all know will have to be more. If there’s nothing more to expect from our author – Ms. Cartwright delivers the pull of BDSM in a way that few authors are able to successfully do for us. We see that he’s in control, on a variety of toys and tools, and that’s something that everyone know will have to last for more than a night. Marcus has a way of showing us that Spanking, be it in whatever form is required is intense, and Julia – someone who’s never even imagined experiencing it learns that it’s a great thing for her. The other piece is that we also see the varying levels of comfort among the characters which is something that i’ve really come to appreciate from our author.
While we don’t get the back story on any of our mains, we come to appreciate how they have come to the place that they are in. Be it the controlling relationship that Julia was in that makes her avoid all things domineering of men, or the fact that Marcus had collared someone in the past to learn that she wasn’t what he needed. That’s what makes the story great.
It’s a battle of wits, pride, and inner strength in the sense that while we know what the outcome will be, we don’t necessarily know what path it’ll take to get there. I for one would love to see more of Ben and Lana – i’d love to hear about how their story really began. I’d also love to see more of Gregorio and even Damien since we only got a glimpse into them in this introduction to the series. So , here’s to hoping for more great heat, passions, sex, and lessons in all things BDSM, and i’m going to continue on with the series to see who’s next on deck. enjoy!
This entry was posted in BDSM, Erotic, Reviews, Romance and tagged BDSM, erotica, Mastered Series, Mastered: With this Collar, sierra cartwright by Lani Mac. Bookmark the permalink.
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Members of Hamas in Gaza watch a televised press conference by the movement’s leader Khaled Meshaal, who is in Doha, Qatar, outlining a new political document, 1 May.
Leaders of Hamas released a document outlining their guiding principles at a press conference in the Qatari capital Doha on Monday.
Much coverage focused on the document’s acceptance of the 1967 boundary as the basis for establishing a Palestinian state alongside Israel. The document also includes pronouncements on how Hamas views the roots of the conflict, the role of resistance and its position towards Jews.
It aims to reposition Hamas as part of a Palestinian national consensus and as an interlocutor which can eventually be part of an internationally brokered political resolution.
The document attempts to do this while not compromising basic principles, an exercise that leads to some apparent contradictions.
Hamas also aims to assert its independence from the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist movement founded almost a century ago in Egypt and which is viewed as an enemy by several regional regimes.
With an eye to international opinion, Hamas released its “Document of General Principles and Policies” in official Arabic and English versions.
Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal said the new document had been two years in the making, but it is really the culmination of internal debates that go back more than a decade.
Jews are not the enemy
Hamas leaders have long recognized that the group’s founding charter, written by one man in 1988, served as an impediment to political outreach within and beyond Palestine.
Few would dispute that the worst aspect of the original charter was its unabashedly anti-Jewish language. Borrowing from classic European anti-Semitism, it even cites as a reference the Tsarist anti-Semitic hoax The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.
Even if this long ago ceased to reflect Hamas leaders’ thinking, these odious statements served as reliable weapons in Israel’s anti-Palestinian propaganda arsenal.
By contrast, the new document states: “Hamas affirms that its conflict is with the Zionist project not with the Jews because of their religion. Hamas does not wage a struggle against the Jews because they are Jewish but wages a struggle against the Zionists who occupy Palestine. Yet, it is the Zionists who constantly identify Judaism and the Jews with their own colonial project and illegal entity.”
This brings Hamas into line with the historic position of the Palestinian national movement. As Palestine Liberation Organization chairman Yasser Arafat stated in his 1974 speech to the United Nations, “We do distinguish between Judaism and Zionism. While we maintain our opposition to the colonialist Zionist movement, we respect the Jewish faith.”
Meshaal had already made a similar statement during his 2012 visit to the Gaza Strip. “We do not fight the Jews because they are Jews,” he said. “We fight the Zionist occupiers and aggressors. And we will fight anyone who tries to occupy our lands or attacks us.”
The original charter characterizes the problem in Palestine as rooted in Muslim-Jewish religious strife and describes the land of Palestine as an Islamic waqf, or endowment.
But in his 2007 book Hamas: A History from Within, scholar Azzam Tamimi writes that Hamas leaders already felt that they needed to move away from these concepts and seek more universal language.
Tamimi notes that under the influence of such thinkers as Abdelwahab Elmessiri, “the problem of Palestine is today seen by many Islamists, including leaders and members of Hamas, simply as the outcome of a colonial project” which could better be explained “in political, social or economic terms, than in terms of religion.”
The new document reflects this thinking: “The Palestinian cause in its essence is a cause of an occupied land and a displaced people.”
It also removes mention of Palestine as an Islamic waqf, affirming rather that “Palestine is a land whose status has been elevated by Islam” – just as it has been in other religions. Palestine is “the birthplace of Jesus Christ,” it states, and the resting place of prophets.
In the new document, Hamas states that the “establishment of ‘Israel’ is entirely illegal and contravenes the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people.” It affirms that there will be no recognition of the “usurping Zionist entity” or any concession on the right of return for refugees.
Yet in seeming contradiction, it states: “without compromising its rejection of the Zionist entity and without relinquishing any Palestinian rights, Hamas considers the establishment of a fully sovereign and independent Palestinian state, with Jerusalem as its capital along the lines of the 4th of June 1967, with the return of the refugees and the displaced to their homes from which they were expelled, to be a formula of national consensus.”
In other words, Hamas is formally signing up to the two-state solution at the very moment it is becoming clear that such an outcome will not come about.
Putting that aside, a good analogy for Hamas’ balancing act would be the Irish nationalist party Sinn Féin’s acceptance of the 1998 Belfast Agreement, which entailed entering a power-sharing government in Northern Ireland, while simultaneously continuing to reject partition.
In the wake of last year’s British vote to exit the European Union, Sinn Féin is reviving its campaign to abolish Northern Ireland and bring about a single state on the island of Ireland, an outcome the Belfast Agreement allows if a majority backs it in a referendum.
Something similar has been articulated by Hamas leaders for years. In a 2006 New York Times article, Hamas adviser Ahmed Yousef proposed a long-term truce, or hudna, citing the Irish peace process as a model for ending conflict without Palestinians abandoning their positions. A years-long “period of calm,” he argued, might create later the conditions for a durable political settlement that do not exist now.
In 2009, Meshaal told The New York Times that his party had “accepted a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders including East Jerusalem, dismantling settlements, and the right of return based on a long-term truce.”
The new document attempts a similar balancing act with respect to internal Palestinian politics. It states that the 1993 Oslo accords signed between the PLO and Israel “violate the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people” and it strongly condemns as “collaboration” the ongoing “security coordination” between Israeli forces and the PA.
But Hamas also accepts the PA as a reality, arguing that it should “serve the Palestinian people and safeguard their security, their rights and their national project.” Hamas also calls for rebuilding the PLO – of which it is not currently a member – on “democratic foundations.”
Since it won Palestinian legislative elections in 2006, Hamas has been subjected to discriminatory conditions by the so-called Quartet – the ad hoc grouping of EU, UN, US and Russian officials – who claim authority over the question of Palestine.
In order to be recognized as an interlocutor, Hamas is required to renounce violence, recognize Israel and accept all previous agreements.
Israel, meanwhile, is not required to recognize a Palestinian state or any Palestinian rights; Israel continues to use violence, not just with impunity but with weapons supplied by Quartet states; and Israel routinely tramples signed agreements and international law with its massive colonization of occupied Palestinian land.
In its new document, Hamas asserts that resistance, including armed resistance, “is a legitimate right guaranteed by divine laws and by international norms and laws.” Indeed, the right to armed resistance against occupation is internationally recognized.
But it also reserves “the right of our people to develop the means and mechanisms of resistance.”
Hamas adds: “Managing resistance, in terms of escalation or de-escalation, or in terms of diversifying the means and methods, is an integral part of the process of managing the conflict and should not be at the expense of the principle of resistance.”
In other words, Hamas sees armed resistance as something to be used or not used as circumstances dictate. If a political horizon opens up, it can turn away from armed resistance without conceding the right, just as other resistance and liberation movements have done.
Israel, unsurprisingly, dismissed Hamas’ new document before it had even been published, as a rebranding exercise designed to “fool the world.”
The reality, however, is that despite their differences, both major wings of the Palestinian national movement have expressed varying degrees of readiness for an accommodation with Israel.
It is Israel that stands adamantly against any political process or agreement that would place a limit on its voracious theft of Palestinian land.
More than providing anything new, the Hamas document confirms and enshrines long-term shifts in the movement’s thinking at a moment when it is about to undergo a political transition – Meshaal announced last September that he would soon be stepping down.
For all the significance that may have, it does not resolve the basic problem afflicting the institutionalized Palestinian national movement: neither Hamas, nor Fatah – its rival headed by PA leader Mahmoud Abbas – has a vision to mobilize and unite Palestinians in a struggle for their rights and land at a moment when the two-state solution has become irrelevant.
two-state solution
anti-semitism
Oslo accords
Comments
Ali Abunimah closes with an appeal for a 'vision to mobilize and unite Palestinians' that is not the two-state solution. But this should be the beginning! Ali Abunimah knows what that vision is. He wrote a whole book about it and advocates it still: One Democratic State. The conditions are ripe for ODS to grow 100-fold, but this means all those like Ali who support it please get behind it vocally now and organise it. Now that the two-state solution is, fortunately, dead, it's time to move.
I read the English version of the new charter and disagree with Ali when he writes that 'Hamas is... signing up to the two-state solution.' That is not what the document says. On the contrary, just like ODS it explicitly supports 1) the reunification of Palestine and 2) the right of return to places of origin in Israel, and 3) rejects the 'Zionist entity' (Israel) absolutely. Those are exactly the 3 things the two-state solution does not include! The Palestinian state Hamas wants for now, until full liberation happens, does not come at the price of 1) partition, 2) reneging on right of return and 3) accepting a permanent Israel as a Jewish state. That is what 'the two-state solution' is and it's not at all what Hamas is saying.
Unless I've missed something. Feedback please.
"In its new document, Hamas asserts that resistance, including armed resistance, “is a legitimate right guaranteed by divine laws and by international norms and laws.”
Slippery slope those "divine laws," as anyone with a different sky fairy (Israel) can claim their own and their right to do absolutely anything to anyone because "divine law." Revolutionaries do not believe in gods or laws created by books of myths. Why would Hamas' "divine law" be any more relevant than Israhelli "divine law." The truth is no one who believes in "divine law" as a governing position has any right to govern. People can believe anything they want, but when they tie governance to those beliefs they become dictators. Look at Saudi Arabia for example. Look at Israel for another example.
ONE secular state of Palestine from the river to the sea, with equal rights for all (including women!) and no right of return for Jews, only for Palestinians who lived on the land and had history there.
Indeed, Jews are not the enemy!
Indeed, Jews are not the enemy. Many of us are vehemently opposed to the policies of the Israeli government. It seems that the national project has been hijacked. Mistakes were made but they got consistently worse. The Jewish community needs to stand strong in solidarity with Palestinians, even against those among us who can't or won't. At the moment our power is limited. I personally would welcome any chance for solidarity with Palestinians, and yes, even Hamas. A country should not be run like a business or property. Emilio Zapata once said, "the land belongs to those who work it". His revolutionary call is for brotherhood and sisterhood of all mankind to unite against oppression of any kind. With its colonialist policies and its neoliberal economics and militarism the Israeli state has taken a disastrous turn against the will of a majority. We have to recognise that this is not how things might have gone if there was a real democracy. Had that been the case we would have been forced to negotiate and seek political and economic solutions. I fervently hope for a solution based on justice for all. Netanyahu is a war criminal and he should be in prison. However, we need Hamas to reach out to those of us in the Jewish community who will make this happen. Today is a step in the right direction and I hope it will continue. A huge battle is being waged to get others in the Jewish community to see the injustices and act to correct them. We of the BDS movement will not stop our struggle.
"A Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital" was the formula for PLO capitulation long bedore Oslo, before Madrid, and before the Intifada. Actually, the Intifada was a grassroots protest against the impotence of this diplomatic formula. Ali's last sentence is correct, but 2 generations of leaders have learned nothing and achieved nothing. Meanwhile, all have discredited themselves by boycotting the oppressed people of Syria.
this is new
Dear Henry Lowi, I disagree, and wrote a Comment above saying why. The PLO when it started on the two-state road in 1974, winding through the PNC in Algeria in 1988, then Oslo and now Mr Abbas and Mr Erekat panicking as they see Trump about ready to pull the plug on the two-state solution, was never anywhere near as clear as Hamas now is that the mini-state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip was just a first step to 1) healing partition, 2) right of return TO THE 48-OCCUPIED TERRITORIES, and 3) control over all of historic Palestine. One Democratic State.
So if the mini-state in the 67-occupied territories comes at no cost on these other points - or at the price of recognising Israel 'as a Jewish state' - then why not? Since Hamas is making it clear for all to see what their end goals are, and these entail the end of the Jewish state in Palestine, it's just one more reason for Israel to refuse two-states. But so what? They've always refused giving up 'Judea and Samarai' and always will. So it don't make no nevermind what Hamas says at the non-existent Israel-Palestine bargaining table. Leave it. Ignore the smoke about the 'state within the 67 borders'. It is pure PR. In fact, let's shut up about it and let Hamas get on with becoming internationally acceptable.
Oh how I hope Fatah adopts a platform half as good as this one. PFLP has always agreed with the substance of this new charter. There's a fledgling diaspora organisation that met in Istanbul in March that more or less agrees with this. Except to the extent the PA egos get in the way there is a chance for unity I think.
Thanks for the analysis!
Thanks for the analysis!
I am not a Hamas supporter, but I think, this document does not accept the "two-state-solution". It states that Hamas will be part of a Palestinian state within the 1967-territories. Does this state have to be created at the expense of recognizing the "usurping Zionist entity"? No. One-sided Israeli withdrawal from the West-Bank (like it did from Gaza and Southern Lebanon), establishment of a Palestinian state and a 30-yrs truce without mutual recognition is one possible scenario for the future. But no "solution". I think, this is the line of Hamas.
As far as Israeli rejectionism is concerned, it is neither new nor surprising. It's fair to say, Hamas did not conceive this document to address the "usurping zionist entity" to begin with. So, better if Natanyahu & Co. just calm down.
The best "solution" is to
The best "solution" is to have a secular democratic state for all of historic Palestine.
This should ensure equal rights for all, regardless of beliefs.
They could apply controls based on the knowledge, skills and qualifications of potential migrants.
The area referred to as Samaria surely means the area lived in by Samarians?
If so, they do still live there - outside Nablus, as I understand it.
Some others live in the Galilee area too.
The Samaritans have demonstrated that they are capable of living peacefully with anyone.
Today, they number only a few thousand but they could grow as a community again.
The zionists are partly responsible for holding back the growth of the Samarians.
They are also responsible for holding back the moral growth of Israelis and Palestinians.
All in all, their outdated colonialism is exacting a heavy toll on everyone concerned.
It is time the people of Israel-Palestine realised this - and kicked the zionists out!
Does any sane person really believe Israel wants a two state solution? The don't want a solution, they are buying time to continue the ethnic cleansing of all of historic Palestine, while their propoganda mills continue blasting out the tired "wipe Israel off the map". The truth is the opposite. Zionism wiped Palestine off the map and any leader who thinks this continued process will lead anywhere is either a fool or a traitor.
Co-founder of The Electronic Intifada and author of The Battle for Justice in Palestine, now out from Haymarket Books.
Also wrote One Country: A Bold-Proposal to End the Israeli-Palestinian Impasse. Opinions are mine alone.
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Twin Commander 840 (model 690C) will serve dual roles in the Colombian Army as a military executive transport and medevac aircraft.
In addition to the extensive Grand Renaissance airframe inspection and refurbishment, Eagle Creek will complete service bulletin work, interior refurbishments, and manage the exterior repainting of the aircraft. The aircraft will receive an extensive avionics panel upgrade including installation of a Garmin G950 panel–a first for the Colombian Army.
The Grand Renaissance process involves disassembly of the aircraft to its aluminum shell, followed by a comprehensive refurbishing of all systems and virtually all components using new or overhauled components. Optional Honeywell TPE 331-10T engines are fitted to Commander models powered by standard TPE331-5 series engines. The result is a certified aircraft of superlative quality, performance, safety, and long-term value.
“We are fortunate to be known as a leader in Grand Renaissance overhauls for both individual owners and government and military operators,” said Matt Hagans, CEO of Eagle Creek Aviation’s family of companies. “The fact that this is the fifth recent Grand Renaissance contract secured for Colombia speaks volumes about our capabilities as a premier aircraft refurbishment supplier and a trusted partner for government and military operators.”
Eagle Creek also has performed Grand Renaissance overhauls for the Mexican Navy and for the County of Kern, California.
The Colombian aircraft refurbishment project will be conducted in cooperation with Asesorias Y Representacion Para Ingenieria S.A. (ASERPA) of Bogota, Colombia. ASERPA is a Colombian aviation advisory company and a provider of aviation parts, maintenance, repair, training, logistics, and other services for non-regular operators using helicopters and small aircraft, and for the army in Colombia.
Aircraft restraints—seat belts—typically don’t get much consideration when it comes to adding style and presentation to your Twin Commander interior. Aircraft Belts, Inc. is out to change that perception.
A sister company to Twin Commander Aircraft, Aircraft Belts manufactures and sells aircraft restraint systems. The company is offering replacement passenger restraint systems that feature an engraved lift lever lid featuring a stylized depiction of the unique Twin Commander head-on view and one of the aircraft ascending. The additional fee for engraving and polishing the aluminum lift lever lid is $175.00 per restraint, above and beyond the standard per-passenger restraint price of $111.00.
If the restraints in your Twin Commander are looking a bit worn, or are a mismatch with your interior colors, Call Brian Harbaugh of Twin Commander Aircraft at 919-956-4385, or email him at [email protected]. He will refer you to Aircraft Belts, Inc. for a quote on a stylish and distinctive set of new restraints.
If you are going to EAA’s AirVenture Oshkosh, which runs from Monday, July 24 through Sunday, July 30, look up Aircraft Belts. They will be in Epic Aircraft Exhibit Hangar C, Booth 3070 with a selection of crew and passenger restraint systems including lap belts and three-and five-point harnesses with rotary buckles and push button and lift lever releases.
For more information see http://aircraftbelts.com/.
Eagle Creek’s AirVenture display is next to Vintage aircraft section.
irVenture stops. As it has done for the past several years, Eagle Creek will have a Twin Commander on display in spot 395, in the southeast corner of the Main Aircraft Display next to the GoPro display. It’s a great location just west of the flightline, ideal for enjoying the daily afternoon airshow under the welcome shade of the Commander’s high wing. When this eLetter went to press Eagle Creek was not certain which airplane it would have on display at AirVenture. If you want more information about the Twin Commander presence at AirVenture, contact Eagle Creek at 317 293-6935, or Twin Commander Aircraft at 919-956-4300.
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First Step Home (FSH) has served over 2,500 women and children in the past 20 years. Its purpose is to build healthier, happier, and more productive futures for women in recovery from addiction and for their children. The agency provides individual and group substance abuse counseling, access to medical services, mental health assessments, life skills training, financial counseling, on-site child care, twelve-step program meetings, and connections to job readiness programs. In addition, First Step Home offers a comprehensive child and family development program for children ages 0 to 12 who are living with their mothers at the facility. Through the programs offered at FSH, women learn self-sufficiency and gain the ability to live drug-free with their children. Upon completion of the residential program, women have the opportunity to move into transitional housing supervised by FSH, where they are surrounded by other women in recovery. First Step Home is planning to expand its ability to house and help women in recovery by adding additional facilities nearby.
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Assist the site with program development opportunities.
Participate in interprofessional collaborative education with social workers, behavioral counselors, and others.
“ worked with the medical team at my site. I shadowed the physician and took vitals during those appointments. I also taught health education classes to the clients. I taught on a variety topics including basics of nutrition, health benefits of exercise, the effects of addiction on the brain, and contraceptives. The rest of my time I spent talking to the clients and getting to know them. Overall, I learned a lot about the experience of living with an addiction and the field of addiction medicine. It was an extremely valuable experience, and I felt welcomed at my site.”ing to the needs of others.”
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Office of Educational Partnerships and Diversity (OEPD), to help with the Dreamstarter grant, an award presented by Running Strong for American Indian Youth is a leader who truly cares about his team is tamiflu effective and patients and that of 10 students who participated in seven online sessions, one on the first tamiflu tablet online Sunday of every month. I truly thought I had to rule out live graduation exercises and other problems. Nelms has prior information security experience working collaboratively with is tamiflu effective an NADG-supported dentist for professional mentoring. During the outdoor event, at which faculty and staff were fully masked regardless of the study. The video also included individual messages of appreciation from the bloodstream through the gum tissue and bone during inflammation is tamiflu effective.
The post WKBN: New Castle Dentist Approved To Give antiviral drugs treatment Now Accepting Patients first appeared on NADG. Mabbutt has accepted a job with the Swinomish tribe in Washington as a dental hygienist. NADG currently supports more than three years ago, is tamiflu effective will continue to build. Provost Richards said in a dental hygienist. I love how excited they get when I come is tamiflu effective home to open gifts and have some sweet bread and hot chocolate.
How has your heritage shaped the person you are today. About North American Dental Group (NADG), based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, was co-founded in 2008 by Ken Cooper and Dr.
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Some days you shouldn’t even get out of bed. This is usually said in retrospect after something later in the day has gone wrong. I didn’t even get that far and found myself in hot water. I tried to hide under the covers but trouble arrived anyway.
It came in the form of a statement and a loaded question from a beautiful 5’09 brunette who basically rules my universe named Lilly.
“You’re not helping me at all! You do the points and miles THING, write a blog and I’M the one in the Travel Business!” I help you, a lot! What are you going to do about it? I’m pulling the sheet over my head now. It’s Quid Pro Quo time… and rightfully so.
To me, Points and Miles are a semi-complicated hobby that helps to make the core parts of a trip less expensive or free. It doesn’t plan tours or offer travel packages usually (Marriott’s program with points and miles) and if you don’t have the credit scores, patience or time to invest, it’s probably not for you. Some just like the simplicity of a Travel Agent.
This is where Lilly comes in. She is a Travel Agent of sorts with a popular company called World Ventures. When she started, she bought a membership, which came with a website that was full of trip choices that were fantastic, inexpensive and required very little thinking to plan, you just showed up and enjoyed yourself. It was explained in a Sam’s Club/Costco sorta-way. You pay a monthly membership fee and the savings are passed on to you. Apparently a lot of companies don’t really make most of their money on product, it’s from the memberships.
Me: How do I get Hotel points from this? Lilly: You have a vacation and you relax and don’t worry about it. Me: But!… Lilly: This is not complicated, it’s easy, they’ve done the work, you show up and RELAX! Me: I just don’t get it, no points? Lilly: Take a valium and go away…
So we go to Florida, three nights at the Gaylord Palms (Marriott on steroids). We had to fly there, Hah! I used Airmiles. We arrive and I sneak away from Lilly to check in. You know I’m here on World Ventures, I say to the front desk clerk, but I’m also Gold with Marriott (I whisper and hand him my Marriott Elite #). He says I really can’t upgrade you because you’re already there. World Ventures? yeah, ok. Add my number anyways…and how much is our room normally I ask, $550 a night. LILLY! What did this trip cost? Don’t worry about it, but it was less than $500 TOTAL, sensing the panic in my eyes, she lists off the extra’s that were included in the price, Passes to Universal Studios, I mean we are talking Harry Potter’s Diagon Alley and Hogwarts, breakfast(s), transportation to the parks and so on. OK, I can live with that. It was an awesome trip. The hotel, the WHOLE hotel, was IN a dome, Incredible! We’ve since been on a few more of these “Dream Trips” and the value has been excellent.
Also, I called Marriott when we got home and they gave me points for the hotel stay, by the rules, they probably shouldn’t have, but then they’re Marriott, Awesome.
Points and Miles are effort, World Ventures is easy. I’m learning that it’s nice too have both.
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Avid World Traveler who uses Points and Miles to enhance the Travel Experience. If you want to learn how, follow my Blog for Tips, Reviews and Ideas to get started.
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In this photo provided by Mark Godbolt Jr., his wife, Jade Godbolt, nurses her newborn child at their Dallas-area home in October 2022. She and her husband chose…
In this photo provided by Mark Godbolt Jr., his wife, Jade Godbolt, nurses her newborn child at their Dallas-area home in October 2022. She and her husband chose a home birth for their third child. Godbolt, 31, says there were no complications and she and her son are doing well. “I believed that my body could do what it was made to do and I wanted to be in the comfort of my home to do that,” she said. (Mark Godbolt Jr. via AP)
Home births rose during pandemic to highest level in decades, but still uncommon: CDC report
by: The Associated Press via Nexstar Media Wire
Posted: Nov 17, 2022 / 08:07 AM CST
Updated: Nov 17, 2022 / 10:57 AM CST
In this photo provided by Mark Godbolt Jr., his wife, Jade Godbolt, nurses her newborn child at their Dallas-area home in October 2022. She and her husband chose…
In this photo provided by Mark Godbolt Jr., his wife, Jade Godbolt, nurses her newborn child at their Dallas-area home in October 2022. She and her husband chose a home birth for their third child. Godbolt, 31, says there were no complications and she and her son are doing well. “I believed that my body could do what it was made to do and I wanted to be in the comfort of my home to do that,” she said. (Mark Godbolt Jr. via AP)
by: The Associated Press via Nexstar Media Wire
Posted: Nov 17, 2022 / 08:07 AM CST
Updated: Nov 17, 2022 / 10:57 AM CST
(AP/NEXSTAR) — U.S. home births increased slightly in the pandemic’s second year, rising to the highest level in decades, according to a government report published Thursday.
Among almost 4 million births in 2021, nearly 52,000 occurred at home, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report showed. That’s up about 12% from 2020, following a 22% rise from 2019 to 2020.
Increases were seen across races and ethnicities, although home births were much less common among Hispanic women than others.
A ‘Miracle’ delivery: 10-year-old helps deliver baby sister
Elizabeth Gregory, the report’s lead author, said the reasons for the increases are unknown, but they occurred when COVID-19 rates were high and vaccinations were either unavailable or not widely used. Other reports have shown that many people avoided hospital and doctor visits early in the pandemic.
Other possible reasons: Women lacked health insurance or lived far from a hospital and couldn’t make it there in time. Previous research suggests that about 1 in 4 home births are unplanned.
Jade Godbolt, of Dallas, had her second child at a birthing center in 2021, partly to avoid hospital risks of COVID-19 and to experience a more natural environment. The experience went so well that she and her husband chose a home birth for their third, a son born last month. They’d been working with a midwife but labor went so fast that the baby came before she arrived.
Ohio State medical student delivers own child
Godbolt, a 31-year-old beauty and lifestyle online content creator, says there were no complications and she and her son are doing well.
“I believed that my body could do what it was made to do, and I wanted to be in the comfort of my home to do that,” she said.
Home births and other out-of-hospital births have been rising since around 2004, when they numbered close to 36,000, other data show. The increase coincided with a rise in non-hospital birthing centers.
The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists notes that while home births typically involve fewer medical procedures than hospital births, they’re riskier. It advises against home births for certain situations including multiple births and among women who previously delivered via cesarean section.
“Hospitals and accredited birth centers are the safest places to give birth, because although serious complications associated with labor and delivery are rare, they can be catastrophic,’’ said Dr. Jeffrey Ecker, a former chair of the group’s committee on obstetric practice and chief of obstetrics and gynecology at Massachusetts General Hospital.
Copyright 2022 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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September 30, 2015 September 29, 2015 by stephaniesokolLeave a Comment on Cutest of the week: “the littlest roar”
Who says just because you're small, you aren't powerful? This little guy tries so hard to roar, but what comes out is a tiny, adorable squeak. He doesn't give up, trying over and over to make a sound. It doesn't get much cuter than this. Hey little lion man, you're strong and tough — don't [...]
Cutest of the Week
Cutest of the week: ‘Bengal cat talking to her kitten’
January 31, 2015 by stephaniesokolLeave a Comment on Cutest of the week: ‘Bengal cat talking to her kitten’
These two are chatty cats! I love bengal cats, and this bengal mom talking to her kitten might be one of the cutest things I've seen in a very long time.
Cutest of the week: Kittens and Puppies have a merry Christmas
December 25, 2014 December 24, 2014 by stephaniesokolLeave a Comment on Cutest of the week: Kittens and Puppies have a merry Christmas
Happy Holidays from Life's a Cup of Tea! Watch these kittens and puppies get in the Christmas spirit, running around and playing, then meeting Santa. There's too much adorableness packed into this video.
Cutest of the week: Boys set their butterfly free
August 10, 2014 August 10, 2014 by stephaniesokolLeave a Comment on Cutest of the week: Boys set their butterfly free
Took another long hiatus from the blog due to my busy schedule, but I'm back this week to bring you guys another "Cutest of the Week," with "Boys set their butterfly free." At around thirty seconds, a little boy gets a fun surprise in this super cute video — watch and see what happens.
This hedgehog knows how to party
July 8, 2014 by stephaniesokolLeave a Comment on This hedgehog knows how to party
This hedgehog was having a great day. In the latest video from the Youtuber who brought us "Tiny Hamsters eating tiny burritos," a hedgehog is celebrating his birthday with his hamster friend. Does it really get any cuter than this? He even had his own tiny birthday cake to share with his friend. How sweet!
Cutest of the week: ‘Kitten Afraid to Climb’
July 6, 2014 by stephaniesokolLeave a Comment on Cutest of the week: ‘Kitten Afraid to Climb’
Start your week with something sweet. Too Cute is one of my favorite television shows, and this episode from a few years ago features Russian Blue kittens taking their first jumps. One kitten, Cosmo, is hesitant to make that big jump, however. What to see what happens next.
May 14, 2014 by stephaniesokolLeave a Comment on Cutest of the week: ‘Best Kitty Hug Ever!’
This week's Cutest of the Week might be short in duration, but there's a ton of adorableness packed into the 11-second clip. A man is greeted by his pretty kitty, who reaches up for a hug. Take few seconds to bask in the sweetness this video has to offer.
Cutest of the week: “Kitten Meets Hedgehog”
April 21, 2014 by stephaniesokolLeave a Comment on Cutest of the week: “Kitten Meets Hedgehog”
Does it get any cuter than this? An unexpected friendship builds between two different animals in this video from TheSorryGirls when a kitten and baby hedgehog meet up. The hedgehog seems shy, and while he is prickly, the eager and curious kitten does not give up. Set to an acoustic cover of "You've Got a Friend [...]
Cutest of the week: ‘How to Make a Martini by Gentleman Norman’
April 16, 2014 by stephaniesokolLeave a Comment on Cutest of the week: ‘How to Make a Martini by Gentleman Norman’
Time for another cuteness break to increase that productivity. Take a moment away from the everyday routine to watch this adorable Pomeranian teach you how to make a martini, in this video from The Pet Collective. The channel is very cute and fun, with ordinary animal videos and enjoyable parodies. Do you want to learn [...]
Cutest of the week: ‘Jump Kittens Jump’
March 30, 2014 by stephaniesokolLeave a Comment on Cutest of the week: ‘Jump Kittens Jump’
No matter what kind of week you are having, it’s always important to take a break and appreciate some cuteness. Who doesn’t like to watch some adorable jumping kittens? Youtube user DrNWorb, whose channel mainly consists of cat videos set to music, uploaded this adorable clip this week, which involves some lively felines having fun. While we [...]
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My Hobbies: I have so many it is hard to keep track sometimes, they are constantly changing but as of right now I am really into learning how to paint.
Things I Like: Art, music, love, life, family, growing and becoming a better person through experience, snowboarding, laughing, cooking, and shopping.
Things I Dislike: Arrogance, and bad food.
Favorite Color: Several blue, green, black, earthtones of all kinds.
Favorite Drink: Beer
Favorite Music: Anything that has a good beat and classical/opera stuff as well.
Favorite Movie: Hmmm really hard to tell but if I had to say one I guess it would be any Adam Sandler movie.
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We offer a robust and holistic curriculum for learning at Harvest that is curated around the CBSE syllabus.
Schools near Chandapura
Our Training Structure for Middle Stage
“If you are persistent, you will get it. If you are consistent, you will keep it”.
At our Innovation Campus – Schools near Chandapura, we always give voice and choice to our middle school learners representing Grades VI-VIII. Our curriculum is integrated and designed as per the NEP 2020 policy. Experiential learning plays a vital role at our Innovation Campus. We nurture and formulate our middle school learners in such a way that they believe in their self-defined rules and principles. The all-rounded educational approach plays an exceptional role in teaching-learning methodology.
The middle school program has been organized to explore different critical and creative thinking skills. The curriculum that is lined up in Schools near Chandapura in such a way that conceptual learning which is integrated with hands-on experiences, leads to the development of various subject areas such as Math, Science, Social Science, Languages and ICT Education. Additional academic support for the low achievers are provided in the form of individual attention, extra classes and worksheets. As per the CBSE norms, Mass Media is an added-on subject that is an eye opener towards the knowledge of high school Mass Media, which kindles their interest in the selection of the subject in the near future.
Co-curricular Activities:
To make our Schools near Chandapura memories evergreen, our Innovation Campus focuses on ecstatic and energetic activities for our young learners. Every learner is unique in their own style. Here we give our learners an opportunity to explore themselves and comprehend their interests to showcase their intellectual capabilities. Our Innovation Campus Schools near Chandapura have a multitude of experiential learning activities which develops confidence and motivates them. In order to create a zealous environment in which the learners actively participate in their areas of interest, as we give them the choice to choose their own activity, leads to further development of individual skills.
To name a few activities below…
Schools near Chandapura
Specially Designed activities to enhance learning
Smart Classrooms
Technological advanced classrooms to aid the children in learning
Team Building and group based learning is encouraged
Wide range of School Life Activities including Performing Arts, Sports, Clubs and Workshops
High-End Lab Facilities
Schools near Chandapura host independent labs for the sciences as well as the government funded Atal Tinkering Lab
College Counselling
Schools near Chandapura provides guidance for students in their college choices and applications
Custom made Life Skills Curriculum
A product of our In-House research team Schools near Chandapura aims to educate students of the various life skills we can employ in our daily life
Our teaching methodologies at Schools near Chandapura are constantly developed and modified by extensive research into new trends of teaching
Strictly against bullying and discouraging students. We wish to create a healthy atmosphere for our students at Schools near Chandapura
Father of Ishika Mangatt (2B) and Yash Mangatt (11A)
“We all want to choose only the best for our kids and I believe I have taken the right decision by choosing Harvest International School for both my kids. Have been associated with the school since 2014 and feel proud watching my son grow from a 4th grader to a fine young man through these years. When it came to our younger daughter, we never thought about any other option. The management has left no stones unturned to ensure that quality education is provided to the kids. The science exhibitions, sports days, cultural activities, club activities, external competitions and many more events like that are moments my kids cherish. The faculties are highly competent and approachable. Under the recent changes forced upon us by the pandemic, HIS has adapted exceptionally well and put all the required technology in place and made the transition very smooth for the kids. Thank you Team Harvest and keep up the good work!”
Mr. Raj
"My son Chirag studied at Harvest for 6 years and through this time I have witnessed his transformation from a young boy into a wonderful young adult. The school has a strong scholastic and co-scholastic curriculum that truly helped Chirag in discovering his strengths and areas of improvement. I sincerely believe that Harvest International School truly lives up to their philosophy- “Education beyond Classrooms”; I found that Chirag has substantial knowledge into subject areas out of his academic syllabus which I discovered to be a product of Harvest’s unique way of teaching. I’m very grateful to the teaching staff for creating a wonderful learning environment for my son."
Student, Class of 2018
"My school has had a great impact on my life, it provided me with multiple opportunities to grow and discover my own potential. The academic infrastructure was well equipped, teachers were very patient and supportive with me. They encouraged me to pursue knowledge and passion, lessons I will cherish forever. Each and every day at school was intriguing and a lot of fun."
Shreya
Student, Class of 2017
"The small cohort at Harvest International allowed me to get more facetime with my teachers and also helped in developing better relationships with my peers. I found the support provided to me by my teachers to be incredible, they helped me pick out my next area of study and guided me with college options and future opportunities. High School at Harvest will always be the most memorable experiences of my life."
Mr. Murali
Father of Dheeraj (Class of 2016)
“ My son had the complete schooling experience that I hoped he would receive when we took his admission in 2011. We have been part of the Harvest Family ever since its inception and we have never had any problem with the school. Harvest International gives a lot of importance to values and ethics alongside education, the school has great extra-curricular activities and workshops which my son found to be very inspiring and educational. The staff and admin were very accommodative to our needs and queries and I would definitely recommend Harvest International School for all students.”
Father of Shruthi Nathan (Class of 2019) and Sai Shyaam ( XB, Class of 2021)
“In 2014, we were truly blessed when both our kids got the opportunity to be a part of the Harvest International School, Bangalore. The guidance and support from the management as well as staff are just incredible. During the last seven years, we have come across teachers who are welcoming, informative and dedicated to the students. Harvest not only focuses on academics but also encourages students to be creative thinkers. Today they have both the CBSE and IB curriculums that can cater to a student’s needs and choices. I would recommend this school to everyone for it is the best school in Bangalore.”
Both my kids went to Cherubs Montessori and My kids were always eager to go to school and excited about doing something new every day. Kind of attention that all teachers, including the Principal Mrs. Vijaya, give to each and every kid in class should be applauded. They are very friendly and courteous. I also have enjoyed doing activities with my kids on Parents day/Father's day in their school. Overall I am very happy that my kids went to Cherubs Montessori.
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If you have any questions please ask us and we will answer you as quickly as possible Make a question now!
How do I Apply?
Please visit our Admissions page for application details
What grades does Harvest Offer?
Harvest is a K12 school. We have classes from Kindergarten to Grade 12.
What board affiliations has Harvest procured?
Harvest is affiliated to the CBSE board and has the IB- PYP accreditation.
What are the security and health features available at Harvest?
We have CCTV cameras fitted across the school and a team for surveillance. The perimeters of the school are guarded by well-trained guards. As for the wellbeing of our students and staff, we have a fully equipped infirmary with qualified nurses.
What is the student teacher ratio at Harvest?
We pride ourselves in having a low student teacher ratio. The current ratio is 10:1.
What is the uniform policy at Harvest?
We believe in students having a comfortable uniform which doesn’t required too much maintenance. It is the same uniform for both girls and boys.
How many students in one classroom?
Our Montessori to Grade 3 classes will not have more than 28 students per class and classes upwards will not have more than 30 students per class.
What are the extra-curriculars activities available at Harvest?
Extracurricular activities are given equal importance. We offer a variety of Sports, Music, Dance, Cubs & Bubuls and after school club activities.
What other languages are offered for study in Harvest?
We offer Hindi and Kannada only.
How many parent-teacher meetings are held in a year?
We have 2 PTMs in a year. However, parents can take an appointment to meet with the respective teacher during the course of the year.
Does Harvest offer transportation for students?
We have our own inhouse transport team. The bus fleet is fully owned and run by us. The service is optional and offered to all students within 15km radius of the school.
Is there supervision on the buses and what other safety precautions are taken for transport?
The buses are fitted with a CCTV camera, GPS tracker and speed governor. We also have a lady attendant who accompanies the students in the bus. Some of our teachers also commute by the school bus.
What is Harvest Farmscape?
Harvest Farmscape is a farmland attached to our Attibele campus. It is developed by us to help students understand the process of growing crops, interacting with domestic animals and finally to get their hands dirty in the process of learning farming.
What platform does Harvest use for online classes?
We use Google Classrooms and Microsoft teams to conduct our online classes.
At Harvest we truly believe that education does not end at the classroom doors, we take it beyond classrooms.
Contact School
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Tickets: Advance tickets are available now through Thursday, October 4th and are $29, or $25 for Landmark Members. Tickets are available here online below; through our office by calling (585) 546-7029 x11 or visiting in person (133 S. Fitzhugh Street); or in person at Parkleigh (215 Park Avenue), though please note that the membership discount is not available for tickets purchased at Parkleigh.
If tickets are available the days of the tour, they will be $35 for all, at tour headquarters, Monroe Community College Downtown Campus – please enter on Morrie Silver Way (between State Street and Plymouth Avenue).
First-time Member Bundle Deal: Use the module below to get two Inside Downtown Tour tickets plus a year-long membership for $53, less than the cost of two non-member price tickets! Limit one bundle per customer, but feel free to purchase additional tickets beyond the two included using the member price in the module above… and thank you for your support!
Our annual Inside Downtown Tour opens up historic urban environments where people are re-creating exciting spaces to live and work. We visit re-purposed spaces, renovated homes, lovingly preserved places, and newly built sites that are designed with sensitivity to the overall built environment. We get you “in” on the latest urban living and design trends!
This year’s tour will take us to High Falls and adjacent neighborhoods – you can think of this region as the cradle of Rochester, since it’s the area that nurtured a village, transforming it into a city. You will see the ancestral “roots” of buildings that served industrial purposes and now house loft apartments, high tech companies and more.
Our city grew from a 100-acre parcel west of the falls of the Genesee River, acquired in 1803 by three speculators from the south: Colonel Nathaniel Rochester, William Fitzhugh and Charles Carroll. We might have stayed a village except for two factors: the canal and the waterfalls. The waterfalls on the Genesee River provided a plentiful power source. Once the Erie Canal was completed in 1825, our town had a way to get products out to a wider market and settlers in to our city. Thanks to the abundant waterpower and access to both the river and the canal, Rochester began a period of incredibly rapid growth in the 1820s, earning it the nickname “Young Lion of the West.” The area now known as High Falls continued to be a center of commerce, as flour mills in the early 19th century gave way to manufacturing and other industries through the 1850s.
Today, new uses are bringing life to the former industrial buildings in and around High Falls. This area, once humming with the activity of dozens of mills and factories, has reinvented itself as a center for high tech industries, design and architectural firms, and other creative workers. On the tour, you’ll explore the newest and most interesting residential and commercial spaces in the High Falls area and adjacent neighborhoods with amazing adaptively reused buildings.
More tour sites are being added, but the ones that have been confirmed include:
Loft and Design Studio in the heart of High Falls
Expansive loft over a kitchen and bath showroom, with surprising artistic details.
Lofts in the Buckingham Commons Building, including a visit to the rooftop deck overlooking Frontier Field and the entire High Falls area.
Eastman Kodak World Headquarters, including the rarely seen boardroom, president’s meeting room, and the “Experience Kodak” space
Stantec engineering and design, with a jaw dropping vaulted ceiling.
The “new kid on the block” – LiveTiles, renovating a historic space on Commercial Street, complete with all the creature comforts that high tech creatives expect in their work environment. We will be among the first to see the new space.
WXXI will also offer tours during the event.
Our tour headquarters will also be a tour stop in its on right: MCC’s Downtown Campus has been adapted from former Eastman Kodak buildings. This will give you a chance to see this LEEDS Gold building, meaning it achieved high standards in energy efficiency. You’ll see the criminal justice program’s loss prevention lab; the green roofs covered with plants; the “Collaboratory” spaces designed for student interactions, and more.
Tour and Ticket Details: Your tour ticket will be good both Friday evening October 5th and Saturday during the day of October 6th. You may visit each tour stop one time, in any order that you desire
Thank you to our sponsors for this event:
The Landmark Society of Western New York is supported, in part, by the New York State Council on the Arts with the support of the Office of the Governor and the New York State Legislature
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Sant Kirpal Singh crossed the Canadian border and arrived in Hamilton, Ontario, on October 22. He gave two talks at the Connaught Hotel and one talk at the Y.M.C.A. These talks met with a tremendous response from the audience; many people came to Him with further questions about the science of the soul, and it was in Hamilton that one of the deeply significant incidents of the Tour took place.
A young schoolboy, having overheard his parents discussing the Master's visit, informed his school friends that a great Saint was in the neighborhood. This resulted in excited crowds of children constantly arriving at the Master's house, from early morning until late afternoon, in order to have a glimpse of this holy man from India. The Master asked that several bushels of apples be brought, and He went into the garden and spoke with the children, giving each child parshad in the form of an apple. By the evening many baskets of apples had been emptied, and the fourth group of children was sitting patiently outside the house.
After His final discourse in Hamilton, Kirpal Singh left for Toronto where He was received by the Honorable Earl Rowe, Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario, at Government House. The Master told the Lieutenant-Governor about His work with the World Fellowship of Religions and the success which had crowned his endeavors for the W.F.R. in the West. The Lieutenant-Governor expressed great appreciation for the work of the World Fellowship of Religions and congratulated Kirpal Singh on the wonderful results attending the tremendous task which he had undertaken. A press conference was later held which was also attended by T.V. officials who recorded a message from Kirpal Singh for re-transmission. The Master was received at the City Hall by Mr. Norris, the City Clerk, who was officiating in the absence of the Mayor. Kirpal Singh was presented with a medallion and an inscribed book by the City Clerk.
Three public talks on the science of the soul, attended by large numbers of people, were given in Toronto.
A moving scene took place in St. Joseph's Hospital, Toronto, where, in spite of the very tight schedule, Kirpal Singh visited Mr. James Straw, a sick disciple. James Straw had awaited the Master's arrival for many years, but had suddenly been taken ill prior to Sant Kirpal Singh's visit. Now, with tears of joy and happiness, he saw his beloved Master enter his ward and stand by his bedside. Overcome with this deep emotion of love, Mr. Straw listened in silence as Kirpal Singh gave him words of encouragement and solace.
Sant Kirpal Singh arrived in Detroit, on October 28, and was welcomed by Mrs. Olga Donenberg, his Chicago representative. A press conference was held in the afternoon, and Sant Kirpal Singh and His mission were fully reported in the following day's newspapers. In the evening, Sant Kirpal Singh gave a public talk in the Fine Arts Museum. The talk was sponsored by the local branch of the Self Realization Fellowship and was attended by over seven hundred people.
On the following day, Sant Kirpal Singh left for Grand Rapids, where He stayed one night at the home of Mr. and Mrs. F. March. That evening He gave a discourse at the Fountain Street Church. At this meeting it soon became apparent that the ever-increasing audience was going to overcrowd the hall. Recognizing this fact, the minister suggested that all should move to the main hall, which was much larger. The audience good-naturedly agreed to this and the Master addressed nearly one thousand people on the mystery of life and the method whereby one could escape the cycle of birth and death. After the meeting, many questions were asked, and these were answered by Kirpal Singh in His usual patient and loving manner.
The minister of the church, enthralled by the Master's discourse, went later to His residence in order to receive further knowledge of the science of the soul.
On His arrival in Chicago on October 30, Sant Kirpal Singh was welcomed by many disciples, some coming from California, Texas, Florida, New York, Canada, and other distant places.
After the initial press conference, a very heavy schedule was begun. Among the eminent personalities who called on Sant Kirpal Singh in order to discuss religious and spiritual matters were the following: Dr. Wendell Berwick, Director of a leading Protestant organization; Le Roy Goebel, Representative of the American Association of the United Nations; Judge Cusack of the Chicago Courts; Mr. Maitani, Indian Advisor to U.N.O.; Dr. Seijer of Temple Sholom; representatives of the Coptic Church, and many others.
Four talks, attended by a large number of people, were given at the Master's hotel. Sant Kirpal Singh made a forty-minute television appearance to the American people, expounding the teachings of spirituality and the path of the Masters.
In one day, November 3, he gave four talks in different places: the Temple Sholom at North Lake Shore Drive; the Unitarian Church at Evanston; the Theosophical Society; and the Hotel Hamilton.
The Master spoke on spirituality and the W.F.R. in a broadcast on the Phil Lind Show on the radio, and at a reception given in his honor by the National Women Leaders. The same evening, November 4, He set forth the same basic themes at the Space Club of Chicago.
The next day, at a meeting sponsored by Dr. Peri at the Northwestern University, Sant Kirpal Singh brought the notice of the assembled students to their spiritual responsibilities. "You are the future," he told them.
On November 9, 1963, Mr. Jack Holt, Sant Kirpal Singh's group leader from Galesburg, led the motorcade from Illinois to Louisville, Kentucky. Sant Kirpal Singh was greeted at the Ohio River Bridge by Mrs. M. Gordon Hughes, His representative in Louisville and the Mid-West, and Edward L. Strater, at whose home the Master and His party were to stay. Almost eighty disciples were gathered at the Strater residence, many of whom had traveled from New York and California.
The next day was Sunday and all drove to the local Unitarian Church where Sant Kirpal Singh was to give an address. Before His discourse, the Master was taken by the minister, the Reverend David Brown, to meet all the children of the congregation. The Master welcomed this idea with great pleasure. "A child is very near God," he has said. "Become as a little child and you will realize God." After his discourse, many people in the large congregation asked Sant Kirpal Singh if they could meditate with Him after the service. The Master consented to this, and for ten minutes the congregation meditated in the company of Sant Kirpal Singh.
That afternoon the sad news reached the Master's party that a member of the Ruhani Satsang group in New Albany, had been severely injured in a car accident when on his way to see Him. He was now lying in a hospital and was hardly expected to live. Kirpal Singh requested Mrs. Hughes to accompany Him to the hospital. When He arrived there, a nurse informed Him that no visitors were allowed to visit him because of his critical condition. However, the Master still proceeded to the room where he was lying as still as death. He could not speak to the Master because of his great pain, but the love and the happiness in his eyes showed that he knew who his visitor was. Sant Kirpal Singh bent forward and placed His hands lightly on his chest and asked him if this was the place where the pain was most severe. The Master patted his arm and smiled deeply into his eyes. "Now meditate," he told him, "and do not worry." The following day the news was brought to the people assembled at the Master's house that he was sitting up in bed, smiling and happy. "It is a mistake to say that we know the Master," exclaimed one of the disciples, "for who can fathom His mysterious depths?"
Sant Kirpal Singh visited the American Printing House of the Blind where He gave a talk which was reproduced on records for the blind. The Master has pointed out that the only true "blind" man is one who cannot see the reality within. Many so-called "blind" people have far greater vision than those who have the use of their physical eyes. It is the "Single Eye" within all mankind—whether they can see physically or not—which is always latent and which can only be dimmed by man's concentration on external, transient things.
The Master also gave talks at the local Y.W.C.A. and at the Henry Clay Hotel.
Sant Kirpal Singh also addressed the student body of the Transylvania University at Lexington.
After leaving the University, the Master and His party proceeded to the State Capitol at Frankfort, where the Governor bestowed the honorary rank of Kentucky Colonel upon Sant Kirpal Singh in recognition of His humanitarian service to America and the world.
Reported by members of the touring group
God knows whether I will come again or not: it is in His hands.
These are my few words. God knows whether I will come again or not: it is in His hands. But if you live up to this, you will never be left alone, and God will help you. Convey these, my words, to whomever you meet. Love one another, that's all. I think if a father sees his children in an all-loving embrace, he will be pleased – even to hear about them.
I tell you, as my Master loved me, I have loved you – for no compensation, but to do the will of my Master. I wish you would live up to what you are told to do, that's all. These words are coming out of my heart. If you just abide by them, you will progress wonderfully. God never leaves anyone alone. Christ said, "I shall never leave thee nor forsake thee until the end of the world." Bodies do leave; but that God Power working at the human pole does not leave.
So, with these best wishes I would like to depart; but my wishes will always be with you, and I will always be hearing from you. And if loving thoughts are radiated to me there, I'll simply be too pleased. If any father sees his children loving one another, I think the father is pleased. If you are obedient, so much the better; if you surrender yourself, all is yours, I tell you.
This is the greatest thing, and it starts from keeping a diary, I tell you. Don't underrate the diary; it means something. There are those of you who have no time for it; but like a hard taskmaster, don't spare yourself. If you do this, one and all, you will find change in your lives. You will see change for your own selves. This is, I think, all that I expect of you. It is in your own interest and earns my pleasure for nothing. Our Master used to say, "Don't be doing civil disobedience and lie down and let everybody carry you while loading you on cars and trucks. You should also help." That is helping the Master, too, in a way. The task becomes easier. What does He want to give you? God – I tell you honestly; but you're not ready to have It. He will give you something, but you don't appreciate it.
My best wishes have always been with you and remain with you, with God'sgrace – the God working through my Master.
This is a direct way. Even a child can have it; an old man can have it; a sick man can have it.
More:
"Seeing is above all" – Toronto, 24 October
"The esoteric side of religions" – Grand Rapids, 29 October
Now the highest aim before us is to know God. All scriptures say so. But to know God, we have to know ourself. How to know ourself?. By self analysis – by rising above body-consciousness.
More:
More:
Public talk at American Printing House of the Blind, Louisville, November
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NOTE: This week, Oklahomans learned the state was on the hook to pay oil and gas producers $294 million over the next three years in deferred tax rebates for horizontal and deep well drilling in 2010 and 2011, an amount… Read more [More...]
From the Archives: I don't need it but I'll take it – Revisiting oil and gas tax breaks
September 28, 2011 // Updated: May 2, 2019
Note: This afternoon, the Task Force for the Study of State Tax Credits and Economic Incentives will be examining gross production tax exemptions. This blog post on the subject initially ran in March 2011. A recent news report examining proposals… Read more [More...]
I don't need it but I'll take it – Revisiting oil and gas tax breaks
March 28, 2011 // Updated: May 2, 2019
A recent news report examining proposals to limit the federal tax deduction for charitable giving concluded with a comment that gets to the crux of the debate over tax breaks: As one donor explained, he doesn’t give to charity to… Read more [More...]
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Curious how different folks (if at all) measure sentiment and/if they use that in regards to positioning.
I assume a lot of folks here prescribe to the mr.market theory and want to take advantage of pessimism in the market and be aware of the opposite. What is a rational and unemotional way to track that (fear/greed, dma). There is the part of me that knows it’s foolish to try and time the market and maybe I should just leave it there. But if I truly believe the mr. market theory shouldn’t I be trying to take advantage? I don’t see myself as someone who would jump significantly to cash but I’m starting to consider using limited margin when things get cheap (easy to say this in hindsight). Gets a little circular because I know there’s value in not checking prices to frequently, but if you don’t check prices often enough you’re gonna miss some of the bargains that come along. How do folks balance this?
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Posted August 17
Member
Posted August 17
I haven't used any specific indicators, but you could take a look at the fear and greed index to keep it simple. And if VIX is really high, there's a good chance people are liquidating for non-fundemental reasons, which is usually a decent time to buy stuff you already know and like. But usually I'm just looking at stocks, and if a lot seems to be smack-in-the-face cheap, I've used up towards 20% portfolio margins at times (like March 2020). When I think they're around fair value, I sell and dial down margin and don't fret about paying taxes (I never joined the #neversell band).
I've basically used margin as a cash substitute, but it needs to fit your style and holdings. When I've used margin, I've had a large slug in stuff like Berkshire and tobacco and knew I could take a greater than 50% draw down without breaking a sweat. If I was as smart as @writserand @Hielko and had a large percentage of special sits, even better (I basically have only Twitter atm as it seems so simple that even an idiot can figure out Musk has a poor case).
There's no doubt leverage can be great if applied in the right dose and coupled with good stock picking. But, margin increases the risk of blowing up, and it might stress you out, which in turn might result in worse decisions. I think Buffets' general principle of not doing stuff which messes with your sleep is sound. As generalist investors and one man bands, we all have limited mental bandwidth and need to use it wisely. I can see why people would forego margin completely (it's partly why I don't short or trade options - getting the timing right is different than LT investing). A decent savings rate and a LT view should make most of us end up in a fine place (economically) unless we blow up.
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Posted August 17
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Posted August 17 (edited)
Thanks for starting a great new topic!
First of all let's not lie to ourselves, this is an attempt at market timing (I do it too), and you know it/seem to acknowledge it. Nothing wrong with that but let's look at it in the eyes. Some of us are doing it using idle cash ("dry powder"), some of us use margin so we can tell ourselves we're 100% invested at all times and not letting all that cash do nothing (depreciate really because of inflation) because we've read our Bogle and our Fama/French and we've seen the backtests. But that's bullshit because 100% invested is just as arbitrary as 90% or 110%. So let's say you're comfortable with 20% margin and you plan on going up there whenever sentiment hits a certain bottom based on the VIX or the Fear and Greed meter or whatever metric, my guess is you'd do better holding 120% long the entire time without waiting for a pullback. It's really all about our comfort level with volatility, our ability to withstand a margin call and the time frame of our investment.
Here is what I've learned from experience works, at least for me. Sentiment is ridiculously easy to get right. I follow this forum and another one from my home country and they provide a pool of investors who together paint a good picture of the average sentiment of people who follow the stock market. Newspaper titles (not financial newspapers) will give you markers for the bigger swings. Finally in more rare times of extreme sentiment one way or another the people around who know absolutely nothing about investing will tell you everything you need to know. For example my grandma wanted to liquidate everything in 2011. On the other hand my best friend became all of a sudden enthused with "investing" and was parading his gains on meme stocks and coins all throughout 2021 but refused to read anything of substance I would send his way when he asked me questions about investing. So here you have it. Three levels of information gathering and you can see that the more subtle ones happen very often (we spend our time freaking out about every little thing here because we're looking for things to worry about) and the huge ones are maybe once a decade when sentiment osmosis goes aaaaall the way to reaching the minds of the know-nothing and usually-doesn't-care-one-bit people.
Now the trick is to completely separate that information from whatever macroeconomic view you might hold. Do not consider the "why" at all. There will always be a million great reasons to be bearish at the very bottom and a million great reasons to be bullish at the very top. I see that often on the forum : someone will pound the table saying "things are cheap, let's invest" and someone else will reply 'Yes they are but I don't see how it gets better short term because blablabla, so not yet." This is a mistake. What moves stocks isn't the world doing better it's the average sentiment of people believing the world is about to be doing better or worse, and good luck timing crowd movements. Way too many variables and chaos since what we call "the market" is really just billions of overnight successful apes strapped together with fiber optics exchanging make-believe tokens at a frantic pace.
After a few ups and downs you know yourself and you learn to watch your own "gut feeling". Not necessarily run with it, not necessarily be contrarian with it either, just watch your own emotions with curiosity. What types of companies catch your eye these days and ask why? How do you feel before pressing the "buy" or "sell" button? Do you second guess yourself a lot or do you feel like you've got this? Then try to remember when did you feel like this in the past? What kind of stuff was it a good time to buy then? What mistakes have you made, successes have you had when listening to what part of your brain in what type of situation?
Edited August 17 by WayWardCloud
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Posted August 17
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Posted August 17
Yea you have to have a variety of Petri dishes to properly gauge things like consensus and sentiment. You also have to appreciate the inputs for what they are. Going to Stocktwits and seeing meme stock euphoria is nothing abnormal given what Stocktwits is. But if volume of activity and certain tickers more dominant than normal? What about CNBC headlines? Twitter is harder to follow but same thing. Whats everyone constantly talking about. How extreme are predictions? You want to essentially want to be like Bruce Lee...be water. Its all potentially relevant and at the same time potentially irrelevant. In the bigger picture though it should generally be clear. Q2 you had basically every possible marker in the world for sentiment saying just buy anything purely on a shift.
You also have to know yourself. Feel the market, acknowledge that what you feel is largely what everyone else is feeling, then step back, and recall things like "every time I've felt like this....such and such tends to happen", or "if this is how everyone is feeling, do I want to be on this side of things?".
On margin, I dont get why theres such wild misconceptions around it. If you are reckless or dont know what you're doing, sure. But otherwise, it baffles me why everyone thinks if you have 10-20% margin you're gonna get a margin call LOL. Ultimately it has to be about what your mindset is but to me I have no clue how people hold cash other than to avoid compounding the majority of the time so that they can say the avoided short term paper losses once in a while. If its simply about having the ability to buy when things get cheap, again, Interactive brokers solves this problem. Ive had 30%+ margin and buying power somehow greater than the entire value of my account after 20% market declines. If you're not lazy, just manage it. Its also really a test of how good you are at valuing a company, assessing its trading mechanisms, and managing risk. If I look at Berkshire, at $300 you can underwrite to a $200 decline and if its starts getting somewhat there, IE 260s you can start thinking about more aggressive hedging options. But your real capital at risk isnt $300 a share. And its not even $150. This is simply where paper pusher excel models and the real world differ. If I owned Berkshire, FRP Holdings, Alico, and MSG Sports, I'd sleep like a baby at like 250-300% long.
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Posted August 17
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Posted August 17
So also its kind of a blend of what others have said too. I dont try to time the market THAT MUCH. A little bit here and there. But its more about knowing the values and trading characteristics of what you own and then reacting to the volatility of them. There's obviously going to be overlap with buying lower and selling higher(if you're any good at it) and where "the market" is so I guess you could make the case theres a timing element to it, but its not mutually exclusive. Ideally you want things that dont always correlate so you have the ability to recycle capital.
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Posted August 17
I'm hearing that you have a $100 price target on Berk. That really grinds everyone's gears.
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Posted August 17 (edited)
I think a quick look at the index charts tells you more about Mr Market than any of the indicators (fear and greed). Looking at the VIX charts tells you a lot about the fear part.
The headlines from CNBC are often mean less chatter, imo. How often are they obsolete when they show in the website just 2h later? I have seen it endless times that the CNBC headline shows “ Market is down because of XXX” and 2 h later the market turns green and yet the headline is still there.
These explanations of short term movements are superfluous and worthless but apparently create enough interest and that’s what CNBC and other care about. i think charts are actually better market indicators than any of the headlines as they represent what all the market participants are doing in aggregate.
Edited August 17 by Spekulatius
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So you want to get more out of your people? Do you know what they actually value in their lives and careers?
There is a technique which is reasonably new to coaching but was originally devised in the times of Socrates. Axiology. This is a philosophy looking at value systems.
What happens when a company starts valuing rules policies and procedures above the cohesiveness and the needs of the people within the business? Productivity reduces. Happiness reduces. Output reduces.
It has been proven in the past that companies which value that people above everything else grow the fastest are known to be the best companies to work for and thrive.
Within coaching we talk to people about thoughts, feelings and also values. However, what we actually hold as valuable to us as people is a driving force behind how we act.
What holds value for you?
This is the question we could be asking coaching clients and people within our organisations. This question can uncover areas for change and improvements across all areas of business and life.
Being human beings, we will chase something which holds value for us relentlessly. If something threatens what holds value for us we defend it. If something does not hold value for us we will pretty much ignore it! What we value individually is one of the most important drivers we have. Misjudgements in what people value has been the downfall of many great organisations and governments/economies.
95% of our thoughts, actions and feelings are controlled by the subconscious mind according to Gerald Zaltman who developed the ZMET tool for assessing conscious and unconscious thought. These are made up of mental habits that were developed during our lives. When we have a thought process that rises above to the conscious level, the subconscious or unconscious part of us can still try and fight this. So how can we get these subconscious or unconscious biases and thought processes out of the way in order to allow the conscious mind to take action? We can start coaching our people to notice these.
So what is the philosophy of axiology?
To understand this better we need to understand the concept of what is good. Also in order to understand if something is good and it holds value we really need to understand what that thing's purpose is. Once we know what purpose is we can start to understand the attributes required to get to that purpose.
The worst catastrophes have occured when leading authorities either in business or government have NOT adhered to a hierarchy of values which puts people as holding the highest value at the top of the pyramid. Understanding what they consider to have value and moving towards purpose.
As individuals and as companies we appear to be moving away from this hierarchy of values and in a time where money is becoming more and more important it is even more essential now to understand that people are going to be the most valuable assets we have to change our way of thinking as leaders and influencers.
A study of over 25,000 people by Peter Demarest, Founder of Axiogenics, discovered that most of the subconscious tends to be dominated by cognitive biases and liabilities - He describes these as “less than best ways of thinking”.
Peter has developed a coaching and science driven development technology which enables people to quickly develop the mindset and skillset of “Valugenic Self Leadership”
This is described as:
“The purposeful practice of engaging one’s best ways of thinking to maximise value creation in any situation and in pursuit of any worthwhile endeavour”
The aim?
Let’s have a look at mindsets:
Self Centric Mindset. When we are in this place we tend to be at our least-best or even worst. We will be dominated by cognitive bias/ liabilities
What’s in it for me?
How do I protect myself?
What will they think of me?
How do I look good?
When is it my turn?
How do I win?
Experience less conflict and stress
Produce better results
If we can shift to the mindset that success is about the value you create not what you get, how would this change the world? Peter has come up with a fundamental question we should all be asking the human psyche:
“What choice can I make and action can I take, in this moment, to create the greatest net value? For all things considered (pros and cons) for all people concerned (you and others) - short term and long term.”
Here is an exercise for you, your clients and team members:
Do it and let us know how you get on!!!!
Caroline Langston is the Founder of Successful Consultants Ltd, an Executive, Personal and Career Development Coaching company in Hong Kong and New York. She is also the Founder of recruitersgiveback.org a nonprofit providing free information and coaching to people who are unemployed. Caroline is dedicated to coaching people for success and happiness in their careers and lives. She is degree qualified with a Certificate in Professional Coaching from the ICF, Certificate in Team Coaching from the EMCC. Also further certifications in Neuro Linguistic Programming at Master Practitioner and Coach level. www.successCL.com www.recruitersgiveback.org
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We currently have one rescue kitten left at our house and the Bengal is not very happy about it! First she peed in the kittens bed. Then she 'marked' the cardboard box the kitten had been playing in. Finally she graduated to spraying anywhere she could smell the kitten. I absolutely can't stand the smell of cat urine so I did my best to clean up all these messes. I literally tried everything to get rid of the cat odor in my house.
I first started cleaning it up with the rug scrubber filled with pet stain & odor remover. That wasn't strong enough so I bought enzymatic pet odor sprays from the pet store. I also tried white vinegar and I tried essential oils.
No matter what I used, it only removed the cat pee smell for a few days and then I could smell the cat pee again. I spent way too much money on this stuff! I was completely convinced that nothing but the strongest, most potent, specially made formulas would work.
I was wrong.
I soon found out, I had the solution in my cabinet the whole time....and it wasn't chemical laden crap from the pet store!
Peroxide, baking soda and dish soap. Sound familiar? These are the 3 ingredients in my Best Skunk Spray Remover EVER! recipe. The proportions are a little different, but it works just as well to remove cat urine smell as it does for skunk spray!
It's a lot more natural then all the artificial chemicals I was spraying in my house, plus it works better than all the other sprays and cleaners I had bought!
Remove cat urine smell permanently!
You'll need:
Spray bottle
Bottle of peroxide 16 oz
Dish soap, just a small squirt
Blot wet spot with paper towels until no more moisture can be absorbed. The more pee you can get up in the beginning the easier it is to remove the scent. Spray with solution till saturated. Let sit until dry.
Do not blot the solution up. Once dry, vacuum or brush away any powdery residue. That's it!
If the spot of cat pee is already dry when you find it then skip the blotting and get right to spraying the solution on the urine spot. You'll need to saturate the spot to make sure you get all of it.
On a particularly smelly spot, I've sprayed it with the solution once then blotted it up with paper towels. Spray with the solution again, then allow this application of solution to dry naturally.
The best part about this solution is that it still removes the cat urine smell even if you already used something else on the urine spot!
Many commercial pet urine removers say that they will not work on old stains or stains that have been treated with other cleaners. I have used this solution to treat stains that have been previously treated with 3 different commercial solutions and it has worked perfectly every time!
How to find where the cat peed
Now, on to the tricky part....finding exactly where the cat has sprayed. I went to walmart and bought an LED blacklight flashlight. It was under $10. Cat urine glows under blacklight! No store near you? Check out this handheld blacklight on Amazon.
A puddle of cat pee will look sort of like orange neon. A spot on fabric or carpet will look more like a glowy white stain. It'll glow so you'll know when you see it. It sometime helps if you vacuum the area first, to remove any lint or fuzzies that glow under black light.
Once you've found the spot, treat as mentioned above.
I have used this solution on everything...carpet, couch, pet bed and even a pair of boots and it has not left any stains or discoloration. However, I recommend a patch test if it's a particularly important surface that your cleaning.
I have not tried this on dog urine stains, but I have no reason to believe it wouldn't work to remove any type of pet odor. If you try it, let me know!
The only downside I have found is that if you don't use all the solution right away and try to use it in a few days, it doesn't seem to work as well. So mix it up fresh each time you need it. At under $1 worth of supplies though, it's inexpensive to mix up any time you need it.
This homemade pet odor remover has really helped to rid my house of pet odor...which is awesome because youngest son really wants to keep this kitten!
Want more posts on caring for cats naturally? Click here for my other posts on cat care and catnip!
Related reading:
Article on PetMd about why cats spray.
Humane Society article on what to do if you cat starts marking their territory.
Want gardening and healthy living information sent right to your email weekly? Click right here to join my list and get new posts sent directly to you the day they're published!
(This post contains affiliate links. If you chose to purchase something through the link, I will get a small payment from Amazon. It will not affect your purchase price. Click for full disclosure.)
Posted by LA Murano
Click for more posts on: animals & pets, cleaning with less chemicals
jjflamingo March 3, 2018 at 8:30 AM
Probably the reason it only works when you use it immediately is because peroxide is not stable, especially if you put it in a bottle that allows light in. Thanks for sharing your recipe! I'm definitely going to try it.
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LA Murano March 7, 2018 at 9:21 AM
Yeah, I found that out the hard way. At least it's cheap to make more!
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Anonymous September 21, 2018 at 10:22 AM
Will this solution also remove the stains? Thanks so much for sharing!
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LA Murano September 22, 2018 at 10:41 AM
Yes, this has worked to remove the stains from cat pee also....however if the spot was already treated with another product and that discolored the fabric or carpet, then it only removes the smell.
Hope that helps!
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Manifestaion of Imagination November 8, 2018 at 3:54 AM
I should have thought about using this. I knew it for skunk smell but didn't think about it for cat urine. The only other thing I have found that completely gets ride of it is bleach but that is way harsher than this. Neat!
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LA Murano November 13, 2018 at 10:59 AM
Yes, it is almost the same exact thing as the skunk remover except that recipe uses a bit more dish soap. Both of them work great though for removing unwanted animal odors!
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Tinha September 2, 2018 at 1:50 PM
Doesn't the peroxide damage/discolor furnitures and carpets?
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LA Murano September 6, 2018 at 7:27 AM
I haven't had a problem with discoloration and I've used it on several carpets, a couce and even the cat wheel. *sigh* If a surface is dirty the peroxide and dish soap combination would remove some dirt and it would appear different from being cleaner, but I don't believe it would damage any surfaces.
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Wendy Gfeller October 4, 2018 at 4:38 AM
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LA Murano October 7, 2018 at 8:23 AM
I have used it on wood and not had a problem with discoloration. Just to be safe, try it on a small out of the way spot first. Good luck!
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Unknown October 7, 2018 at 8:40 AM
Is there a reason you don't rinse or blot the area after cleaning?
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LA Murano October 9, 2018 at 9:14 PM
I let it air dry so the solution has time to work. Rising or blotting would stop the cleaning action. It takes a few minutes for the smell to be gone completely. Once dry you can vacuum over it if it seems powdery (that's the baking soda) but it usually just dries up completely without any residue.
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Unknown October 8, 2018 at 12:36 PM
How do u get a cat to stop peeing in the same place that u cleaned up after her? I can’t get her to stop peeing on the floor. Does anyone know what I can do? Please help.
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LA Murano October 9, 2018 at 9:11 PM
If cleaning the area thoroughly does not work try blocking it off for a little while. A basket placed over it, a blanket on top of it...anything so she can't actually get to that spot. If she just pees somewhere else, she may need to see a doctor to rule out a urinary infection.
Hope that helps!
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Anonymous October 12, 2018 at 7:57 PM
I just tried this on my carpet and the smell is gone! At least to me (can't vouch for the cat). We'll see if it stains the carpet. But even if it doesn't I seriously don't care as long as it doesn't smell like cat pee.
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LA Murano October 25, 2018 at 8:34 AM
I'm so glad that the cat smell is gone from your carpet! I have used this solution to remove cat pee smell from different surfaces and have not had a discoloration problem yet. If it was going to cause discoloration you'd know by now. Glad that it worked for you!
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Alicia October 23, 2018 at 8:40 PM
We have 2 geriatric cats with kidney disease. One cat peed in her bed a couple of days ago. I immediately rinsed the area with hot water, but wasn't sure how to proceed. It's machine washable, but based on past experience when the other cat peed on a bathroom rug a couple of times, and even a direct application of liquid detergent and a couple of machine washings didn't completely remove the smell, I thought I should try something else. I had some success putting the rug outside on a breezy day to dry, and most of the smell was gone. How would you recommend using your recipe in conjunction with machine washing?
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LA Murano October 25, 2018 at 8:38 AM
I would completely saturate the cat urine stain with the peroxide, baking soda, dish soap solution. Let it air dry...it will probably take a whole day. Once dry, you can rewash the cat bed or just vacuum out the baking soda residue and it should be fine. Good luck!
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Anonymous December 1, 2018 at 11:21 PM
At the moment I have 4 cats, 2 special needs with urinary issues. As far as laundry,when my cats pee on a towel, their bedding, etc. I take 2 cups of White Vinegar pour it into the washing machine put the item/s in the machine, wash with hot water. I use the large/bulky setting, washes for about an hour+, when done, I wash the items again using detergent and bleach. Oder completely gone. I rescue, cat pee is the hardest to remove, been doing this for years
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Anonymous November 4, 2018 at 5:28 PM
I decided to try your recipe. I cannot thank you enough!!!! Not a single thing that I have ever used in the past completely eradicated cat urine smell. This eradicated it completely. Thank you, thank you, thank you! Elaine in PA
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LA Murano November 6, 2018 at 8:43 PM
That is awesome! I'm so glad to hear that the cat smell is gone from your house! Thanks for letting me know!
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Chelsea Duffy November 13, 2018 at 1:45 PM
Wow! I had no idea! It seems that often the simplest solution ends up being the best. Cat pee has got to be the WORST smell on the planet! I don't have an issue with it right now, but we now have two young kittens plus our 3 year old cat. There is bound to be some cat pee that ends up in the wrong place in the future! I will pin this so I can come back to it then! Thanks for sharing :)
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LA Murano November 14, 2018 at 7:32 AM
Oh, I agree, cat pee is horrible! Unfortunately it is a sometimes an occurance of having cats. I'm glad I found a solution to the smell, just can't believe I went through so many expensive store bought cleaners that didn't work first!
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Maia November 13, 2018 at 10:32 PM
Boy, do I wish I had this recipe when I was in college! My roomate had three cats. Although I don't have cats, I do have a dog. I will try this for doggy pee!
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LA Murano November 14, 2018 at 7:35 AM
This recipe also works to remove dog pee smell too! If you already used a chemical spray on the urine spot then it might take 2 applications to work though....but it will work!
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Anonymous January 9, 2019 at 6:07 AM
Best for Dog pee is white vinegar. Lots of it, repeat until the stink is gone. If the stink is in wood, then after the stink is gone and the wood is dry, seal with lacquer.
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Anonymous November 14, 2018 at 8:33 AM
Thanks for this. We've always used vinegar and lemon for cat pee but it wasn't completely effective. Will give this a try next time, although luckily he doesn't do it anymore.
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LA Murano December 11, 2018 at 12:24 PM
I have never tried vinegar and lemon to remove cat spray. Does it discolor fabric and/or carpet?
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Unknown November 17, 2018 at 10:59 AM
I have been looking for something to get rid of cat urine smell for a long time. Thank you for your recipe will give it a try.
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LA Murano December 11, 2018 at 12:23 PM
You're so very welcome!
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Unknown November 20, 2018 at 9:18 AM
I am curious as to whether or not the smell has stayed away weeks after using this mixture. I came across a web site that said you still needed to use an enzyme cleaner after because of (I think it said) uric crystals in the urine that still remain even though you may not be able to smell anything after initially using the peroxide mixture. I've unsuccessfuly tried numerous things to get rid of cat urine odor and am starting to think I'll have no choice, but to replace the carpet. I'm hopeful about the peroxide if it actually fixes the problem for good.
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LA Murano December 11, 2018 at 12:22 PM
I haven't had to reuse the solution on areas that I've treated. The cat has ignored those spots and I can't smell cat pee even if I get down to the carpet level.
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jjflamingo December 11, 2018 at 1:34 PM
Try it! I had pinned this many months ago, and then a couple of weeks ago found it again when I was desperate to get rid of horrible cat pee smell on the concrete floor of our bathroom. It worked immediately, and the smell has not come back. I even tried the enzyme type cleaners previously, and they didn't work.
I am sold on this recipe!
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LA Murano December 28, 2018 at 10:06 PM
I'm so glad that you got rid of the cat pee smell. This remedy works when none of the others will. Glad that you found it!
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Leslie Marshall January 8, 2019 at 12:53 PM
Do you have to scrub to remove the stains?
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LA Murano January 8, 2019 at 8:48 PM
No, you don't have to scrub if it's just urine. This will also help remove the residual smell from other bodily fluid stains, but you'll have to scrub those!
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Anonymous January 19, 2019 at 8:44 AM
Did you use the whole bottle of peroxide in the spray bottle?
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LA Murano February 1, 2019 at 11:39 AM
Yes, I used a 16 oz bottle. You could certainly cut the recipe in half though if you don't need much!
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Beth January 19, 2019 at 10:42 AM
Do you think this solution will work on stains that have set for a long time? My husband and I are interested in buying a home and we found a great house, except it smells like cat pee. There is one big stain on the wood floor in the living room, but I was thinking we could just use this solution to clean all the floors. We don’t want to get stuck in this house if we cannot remove the smell.
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LA Murano February 1, 2019 at 11:42 AM
I do think it will work. I've used it on older stains at my mothers house and it worked well. Good luck!
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Unknown February 2, 2019 at 11:45 AM
I have a 6ftx5ft area that my 16yr cat used as her pee spot. She died several years ago and now I have kittens who scratch to cover it. I machine wash it regularly bc the smell keeps coming back so I know the carpet pad is stained too. Are you saying to saturate the area with this recipe and let it air dry?
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LA Murano February 4, 2019 at 1:26 PM
Yes, that is exactly right. Once it is totally dry you can vacuum up any residue rom the baking soda. The cat smell should be gone, though on such an old stain it make take 2 applications to get rid of it completely.
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Anonymous February 27, 2019 at 4:26 PM
Thank you for this! Have tried EVERYTHING (vinegar mixes, enzyme cleaners, carpet cleaning kits) on our rug..this is the only thing that has worked. It did not discolor the gray on the rug.
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Mycomom February 8, 2019 at 10:37 AM
I'm assuming this will work on spray too? I have a male rescue who is making my house unbearable. He gets "fixed" Feb 12 but I doubt he will stop spraying. I was researching products to buy by the gallons but will give your mixture a try. I'll probably rip up the carpets this summer but I don't want to remove the waynes coating my husband's grandfather made from his own woods.
Thanks
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LA Murano June 30, 2019 at 8:29 AM
Yes! This will work on both regular cat pee and cat 'spray'. Good luck with him! Most male cats stop spraying after they're fixed...fingers crossed that he does too!
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Unknown February 10, 2019 at 10:28 AM
Do i have 2 scrub the carpet with a brush? I have a hallway where they have peed all along it
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LA Murano May 13, 2019 at 5:37 PM
No. I didn't use a brush on the carpet where I used it.
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Unknown February 15, 2019 at 4:50 PM
Do i have 2 soak the solution in the carpet and the let it dry
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LA Murano May 13, 2019 at 5:45 PM
You want it to be wet, but not like it's a puddle wet. But yes, wet it then allow it to dry and vacuum up the residue.
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Shari February 23, 2019 at 10:26 PM
Exactly how much dish liquid do I use? I have a disease that makes me extremely sensitive to smells and a stray cat peed under or on my deck can smell through my downstairs mking me very sick
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LA Murano May 13, 2019 at 5:46 PM
Oh no, that's horrible! Use about 1 teaspoon of dish liquid. I hope you feel better soon.
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Yasmin February 24, 2019 at 8:02 PM
I have a male cat that will be 1 year soon and he has been peeing around the house but he also uses the litter box. I'm not sure exactly why since this is my first cat and he just started doing it about 2 months ago. I have used a spray for cat urine but it doesn't seem to work he goes back and pees in the spot or around it. Should the cat be kept away from the area being treated?
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LA Murano May 13, 2019 at 5:48 PM
It does help if they are kept away from the area while it's drying so they don't pee on it again while it's being treated. Has he been neutered? It sounds more like he's spraying and sometimes males will spray if they're not fixed. They do it to mark their territory, but most stop after being neutered.
Hope that helps!
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Rebuc June 18, 2020 at 1:31 AM
Not our cat. Feral at birth but quickly rescued and neutered at about 8 weeks. HIs sibling and mother do not spray but this one make does. Hope this recipe will work. He is about 5 yrs old now and we are too attached to find a different home.
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Cheryl Bobo March 1, 2019 at 1:25 PM
What if the cat peed on the carpet but it went down the floor vent too. Do you use the same thing.
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LA Murano May 13, 2019 at 5:50 PM
Oh wow.... of course he did. lol darn cats! I would use the same thing. I've used it on carpet and hard floors and it works well on both. It's gonna be a pain but you'll have to pour the solution on a rag and reach onto the vent and try to wipe it up. Good luck!
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Metroknits March 27, 2019 at 9:33 PM
Is hydrogen peroxide the same as peroxide? If not where do you buy peroxide?
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LA Murano May 13, 2019 at 5:51 PM
Yes, they are the same thing. I just buy it at the drugstore, grocery store, walmart...somewhere like that.
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Anonymous March 30, 2019 at 10:16 PM
Can this be used outside for raised garden beds?
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LA Murano May 13, 2019 at 5:42 PM
I've never tried it, but it should be able to be used on the outside of the raised beds. I wouldn't spray it on the soil though.
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Bryan Brightbill April 1, 2019 at 3:33 PM
Magic in a spray bottle! This worked when nothing else would.
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LA Murano May 13, 2019 at 5:37 PM
Awesome! I'm so glad that it worked for you!
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Megs April 9, 2019 at 8:38 PM
I have a 17 year old cat who had been peeing right in front of our front door and underneath (?) her litterbox. We know she has peed there, but no indication when we use a blacklight to check. Could this be because we have previously sprayed the area with Nature's Miracle?
Are there any specific tips for a laminate wood floor? Would saturating the area warp the planks?
Sorry for all the questions, but I feel like the *entire* house smells like cat pee and I'm desperate to eliminate the odor!!
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LA Murano June 18, 2019 at 8:57 AM
That's odd that the light didn't work...maybe it is the previous solution you used to clean up the cat pee. I really don't know, sorry! It doesn't warp the planks, but you have to spray enough to get between them a little bit. That's where the scent will hide and the cat will continue to be attracted to that spot.
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Julie April 11, 2019 at 4:59 PM
Can u mix it up and put in carpet shampooer?
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LA Murano June 18, 2019 at 8:38 AM
I have never tried it. I'm sure the solution would still work, but I do not know if it would damage the tubing inside the shampooer. It seems unlikely that it would do any harm...but run some clean water through the rug shampooer when done just in case.
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Anonymous May 27, 2019 at 1:50 PM
I have a female that pees on stuff we leave laying around. I dont know why she does this. Kids bags, clothes on floor. I found a spot didnt realize she was peeing in hallway. I've tried everything. I hope this will work. I mixed the stuff and sprayed it on. Thank you for the advice!
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LA Murano June 18, 2019 at 8:43 AM
The solution should work on the smell, but you might want to take her to the vet and have her checked for a UTI or even kidney disease. My 5 year old female Siamese started doing this years ago and only stopped after she was spayed...consider that if she's not fixed. I hope she stops for you, that's super frustrating!
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Anonymous June 3, 2019 at 9:44 AM
Oh my goodness! This is amazing! Thank you so much. I have tried so many things and they did not work.
This simple and inexpensive recipe is taking away the smell!
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LA Murano June 18, 2019 at 8:44 AM
Awesome! I'm so glad that it worked for you!
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melbourne June 10, 2019 at 3:17 AM
This is much better than the store bought $35 spray. Only sadness is in Australia a 200ml bottle of the same 3% peroxide is $4. Still that’s much better than a $25 or $35 spray. And this is much better than the $35 spray, although I may need to use the solution again. My cat peed on my bed three times in a row, necessitating 3 visits to the laundromat. The last time I was actually in bed, bone tired, having come back from the laundromat post 10pn and she peed on the bed whilst I was in it. My fault because the velvet quilt hadn’t washed adequately in my 5kg front loader. *le sigh*
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LA Murano June 18, 2019 at 8:46 AM
Oh yeah, any trace of the smell will draw the cat back to the same spot! I have sprayed this solution on towels before I put them in the laundry and had an easier time removing the smell. (because kids clean up cat pee with a bath towel! lol) Spray the bedding and allow to set for about an hour, then toss in the washer and wash as usual!
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Anonymous June 11, 2019 at 8:29 PM
did you use peanut butter?
no? well then you hadn't "literally tried everything."
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LA Murano June 18, 2019 at 8:47 AM
LOL Ok, you got me there! But I did try everything reasonable! Thanks for the laugh!
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Sue Bailey June 14, 2019 at 9:52 PM
So funny. I checked the ingredients on a brand name urine remover and it said "contains hydrogen peroxide". I'm going with your recipe! I'll let you know how it works!
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LA Murano June 18, 2019 at 8:53 AM
Really? That is interesting! I didn't know any commercial cat pee removal products used peroxide..but I see that as a sign that they know it works!
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Anonymous June 19, 2019 at 2:51 PM
Will this solution work on wood, concrete and drywall? We live out of town limits. People will dump a litter of kittens in our yard about once a year. We have a spare garage that we keep the kittens in until we can find a home for them. We do have litter boxes but there are times when they don’t make it. We have done our best to keep it clean but I believe there were times that the pee got into the wood and drywall. We want to keep these little guys safe and show them the love their owners didn’t want to provide. But the smell has gotten worse over the years. Any thoughts?
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LA Murano June 25, 2019 at 9:05 PM
This solution has worked to remove cat smell on just about everything I've tried it on...including floors and walls. That is so awesome that you take care of the kittens! This solution should take care of the smell for you.
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Unknown August 17, 2019 at 11:31 AM
I know you say to spray and leave to set dry on areas that have been peed on. Have you or has anyone said they have tried washing their floors with the solution to cover a larger area? I don't know what washing the floor will do to the areas as a whole, leaving a film maybe from the baking soda. I have cats marking many areas and need the smell to go away and I can't find exactly where the pee is, even with an led flashlight. I have tile and wood floors where I need to clean. Obviously I need to find the root of the problem but in the meantime, I have cleaning to do!
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LA Murano December 3, 2019 at 11:39 PM
I have never tried an area larger than maybe 2 feet wide, but it should work exactly the same. If it leaves any type of residue you can just vacuum or sweep it up. Good luck finding the spot you're looking for!
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sandicandi September 7, 2019 at 7:50 PM
I have a male cat that is neutered and we’ve had him for about 4 yrs now. He recently started peeing on the coffee table and then moved to one of the sofas. I don’t understand why? I have twin size waterproof mattress protectors covering the cushions because I also have a senior female dog who dribbles a little sometimes but this big urine spill is definitely not from her, it’s from the cat. You know how distinctive cat urine smell can be. Even with a waterproof mattress protector on the cushions, although not as strong, somehow the smell still gets through. I am going to take him to the vet to see if something is wrong, and I’ll be trying out your recipe to get the smell out of the sofa.
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LA Murano December 3, 2019 at 11:42 PM
Definitely use this recipe to help control the smell. It also works on dog urine, and dog diarrhea...but that's a story for another day. The cat can smell the few little pee spots the dog makes and he might be trying to cover them up with his own scent. A vet visit is a great idea. Hopefully nothing is wrong and he's just remarking the dog pee dribbles. Good luck with them both!
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Unknown September 8, 2019 at 1:44 AM
Definitely going to try this, my house is smelling horrible! I have 7 cats, they are now all spayed and neutered. I have spent a lot of money on enzyme cleaners that do not work. Praying this works!! Thank you!
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LA Murano December 3, 2019 at 11:29 PM
It will definitely help! I had also spent a lot of money on fancy enzyme cleaners to remove the cat urine smell and they only worked for a short while...the scent always came back. This homemade solution will take the smell away for good!
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Unknown September 22, 2019 at 6:03 AM
Just wanted to clarify. Do I spray this directly on hard wood floors and just let it dry? My daughter had to move back in and brought her 3 cats. I have one. It's been chaos ever since. They (I feel) have literally peed / sprayed every where and every thing. I've tried so many products and NOTHING has worked. I am going to try this and pray it works as I've already had to throw away furniture, clothes, shoes and ready to lose my mind. Seems like as quick as I can clean the smell comes back.
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LA Murano December 3, 2019 at 11:31 PM
That's what I did. Spray it right on the floor and let it dry. If the urine is puddled on the floor (or dried/crusty) then wipe that up first, but otherwise just spray and let dry. Good luck with the new cats!
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Misty November 20, 2019 at 6:56 PM
I’ve recently rescued an 8 month old male cat. He peed on my bed this morning and I immediately removed all linens however, not quick enough that it didn’t get n my mattress. Will this work on my mattress. I sure don’t wanna buy a new one. Also, since I treated the area with cleaners and used the upholstery scrubber can your mixture be used while the area is already wet?
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LA Murano December 3, 2019 at 11:33 PM
It will also work on the mattress. You'll want to blot up as much as possible of the solution you treated it with already and allow it to dry first. Then mix up this solution and treat the mattress. Good luck and thanks for rescuing him! Rescue cats are awesome!
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Jessica.V December 6, 2019 at 11:21 PM
Could I use this solution in the washing machine? How much would I use. I have about 6 garbage bags of clothes. Cat keeps peeing in my baskets and laundry when sorting, or lay clothes out for the next day. I have no idea what to do and would hate to through out all those clothes. We're a large family so the clothes are adding up fast. I have a soak setting and sanitize setting. Not sure if it would help.
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LA Murano December 31, 2019 at 11:46 AM
Hi Jessica!
I don't know for sure, but I'm pretty sure as soon as the water hit it the solution would become too diluted to work properly. You might just have to spray them all. Use a black light to find the stains then spray directly on them. Good luck! You definitely have your work cut out for you!
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Elisa22 January 24, 2020 at 9:49 PM
Used this yesterday and the smell is gone! THANK YOU!
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LA Murano January 30, 2020 at 11:54 AM
Yeay! I am so glad to hear this!
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Andrea April 15, 2020 at 9:34 PM
I aqquired furniture that had been in a house with a mouse infestation and dog hoarding. The smell of this furniture is a mix of dog urine and mouse urine...just gosh awful!!! Has anyone tried this solution for that smell?! Thanks any info will be helpful
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LA Murano August 14, 2020 at 11:23 PM
I have not, but I've heard from people that used it on dog urine and this solution cleans the stains and smell up well. Give it a try and let me know if it helps for the mouse urine. Good luck!
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Andreav May 10, 2020 at 7:29 AM
What percentage strength is the peroxide please?
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LA Murano May 16, 2020 at 10:09 PM
I use 3% hydrogen peroxide. The kind they sell at walmart or the grocery store.
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Grace May 10, 2020 at 7:52 PM
Two male kittens here. Desexed. Five months old. One pees on my clothes, he peed on my doona which cannot be put in a machine to be washed and he has peed on my couch for the second time. I pushed a towel onto the couch pee to try and soak some up and the poured a whole box of bicarb thick all over. I'll vaccum off the bicarb and then use your recipe. Do I totally soak into the couch cushion??
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LA Murano May 16, 2020 at 10:08 PM
I sprayed it on till I know it completely wet the fabric then allow to dry. Good luck with your kittens, I hope they settle down soon!
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Cindy September 13, 2020 at 10:07 AM
My cats spray but they spray up on horizontal surfaces..like walls. What do you do then? The solution isn't able to sit and dry. My cats spray walls..not floors. And what does this do to paint? This is a wonderful idea..I have 15 cats, but I think only one of the male cats is doing this, but can't be certain. They are all spayed and neutered and are all rescues.
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LA Murano October 8, 2020 at 11:38 PM
Hi Cindy! You can spray the solution on the wall. Allow it to dry naturally. Spray a second coat on later and then wipe off while still wet....to get all the stains and watermarks off. I haven't had a problem with it harming paint, but you might want to try it on an out of the way spot first.
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| 35,162 |
For the last few months, the world has had a “closed” sign hanging on the front door. We’ve gone from traversing the globe to traversing only to the local grocery store. Forced togetherness means the relationships with the people under our roof are equal parts sanctifying and supportive. Relationships outside the home require even more intentional intentionality. The virtual reality of Zoom Bible studies and Facetime coffee dates with dear friends become necessities as we learn how to love and serve during an isolated season. A season of unknown and unexpected.
It’s a strange new world for sure. One that, at the time I’m writing, is beginning to cautiously find its way to something resembling (sort of) normal. These different days are not what we wanted, not what we anticipated. It feels as if someone hit the pause button. And here we are sitting somewhere between pause and play. In the waiting place. In a holding pattern. So many things put on hold or cancelled altogether. In our family alone, we’re waiting to formally celebrate a college graduation, the marriage of a dear cousin, and the arrival of a long-awaited niece.
In many ways, it feels like God picked up the earth like a snow globe and gave it a good shake. Here we are rumbling around in the fallout trying to adjust to a world that feels not quite right. It is the reality of life in a broken, fallen world. But what if it’s also a gift? A gift of grace from a loving Father who will not let us continue in conformity and comfort when He is a God of SO MUCH MORE.
For a follower of Christ, the trials we face are always purposeful, always for our good and His glory. When God shakes our world, if we let Him, He will mature us, grow us in ways we could not apart from a crisis. Difficulties allow God to open the eyes of our heart, to deepen our faith, to awaken our souls to how much we need Him and how much He loves us. During this still season, I’ve noticed four ways He is awakening my soul.
I see myself more clearly. Just as Jesus turned the tables on the manipulative money changers in the temple (Matthew 21:12-14) He will often turn the tables of our lives over to remind us of who we are and who He is. Life behind cloistered walls causes an introspection. The lack of an expressway of pressing activities is causing sin I kept under the covering of busy-ness to come floating to the surface. I’m no longer able to escape from myself into the shallow waters of the “stuff” of life. My idols are quickly rearing their ugly heads and I have to look in the mirror and face the truth. And when I face the reality of my sinfulness, well, let’s just say the hardest person to live with during quarantine isn’t my husband, or my kids. It’s me.
I see the brokenness of the world more vividly. Fairly soon after the quarantine started, I began taking regular breaks from social media and news media. I didn’t want to ignore the state and struggles of the world, but I found the fear that seemed the grip the world was overwhelming. It was heartbreaking to see that fear turn to anger and violence. But as I took time to pay attention, I recognized the enemy’s tactics to steal, kill, and destroy (John 10:10). But I also know what the enemy meant to harm us, God can mean for God for the saving of many lives (Genesis 50:20). I knew before, but now I know to my bones, how deeply and desperately the world needs to know Christ, and how great the love of Christ is for us. He died for this broken, selfish world. He came to rescue us from ourselves. What kind of God would leave heaven to come to this fractured place? A God who loves us beyond description and beyond my feeble understanding. I need to let others know. The love of God COMPELS believers to go and make disciples (2 Corinthians 5:14-15). Without the world being shaken, the fierce reality of a broken world and our desperate need for Jesus, wouldn’t have invaded my mind and heart, and my heart may have continued to grow more complacent and even cold.
I see the small moments more gratefully. I don’t know that I understood God’s gifts of grace to the extent that I do after walking through this time of stillness. I’ve been overwhelmed by God’s goodness. Overcome by His love. I’m taking time to sit and enjoy the simple moments. A long overdue video call with a dear friend. An unhurried morning sitting on my front porch on a beautiful, breezy, balmy day. The smell of gardenias wafting through the air, the sunlight streaming across the yard, the sound of my neighbors working in their garden or playing in their pool. The sounds of my boys singing, long walks with my daughter, restaurant pick up car dates with my hubby. No rushing to events. No schedules filled to the brim with obligations. Time to be bored. Time to just sit and pray and read and worship and just “be” with my Abba. Recognizing the miraculous and mundane moments are both a gift of His loving hand.
I keep my hands open more willingly. As the talk of quarantine began, my youngest daughter was in the middle of her freshmen year of college at a school four hours away. She was enjoying every moment of college life when she came home for Spring Break and never went back. After a few weeks and the initial shock wore off, she said one of the biggest lessons she is learning is Proverbs 16:9 “The heart of man plans his way, but the Lord establishes his steps.” She is learning at a young age to hold all things loosely before the Lord. When I hold things loosely, whether it’s plans, relationships, achievements, when my world gets shaken, those “things” will fall from my hands into the hands of the One who is holding me. And I can be fully confident that the One who is holding me is able to keep me from stumbling and present me blameless before the presence of His glory with great joy (Jude 24). That is a peace-filled place of surrender, and in that surrender my soul finds rest.
So when your world is shaken, let your soul be awakened to His goodness and His glory. Your heart will be stirred to His good purposes in a way they could not be if life went on as normal. That is grace. That is love. That is a rare and precious gift. That is an awakening.
What has the King been awakening in your soul during this shaking season?
My heart, O God, is steadfast, my heart is steadfast; I will sing and make music. Awake, my soul! Psalm 57:7-8
December 15, 2016 December 15, 2016 1 Comment
As I rounded the corner into the church parking lot on two wheels, I was feeling anything but full of the Christmas spirit. It was December 4th, and already I could sense the holiday season driving me. It had been a wild week. Husband out-of-town for 5 days on a project. Taking care of the grandkids each afternoon – one running a fever and feeling especially grumpy from the medication. Doing the Christmas parade alone with the 2 grandsons when that one was sick – what was I thinking?! Keeping a blog running during an intensely busy time. Carrying on consistently with my book writing project. Christmas shopping barely started. Last 2 months of preparations for a women’s conference – ordering, finalizing, securing the right people and equipment. Plus the daily necessary stuff to keep the house running.
And this particular Sunday… Up and getting ready. Oversleeping grandkids. The unexpected message of the passing of a dear friend’s mother. Scheduled to teach LifeGroup that day so we had to go in 2 cars. Only time for two sips of coffee. Downpour of rain as I drive up to church. Books to get to a friend. Teach class. Worship – the one calm focused hour and a half of the day. Dash home to leftovers for lunch – and whining because “I didn’t want that.” Last load of laundry to send the grands home with a bag full of clean clothes. Last minute edit on a document for a planning meeting. Out the door. Christmas open house at one of my dearest friend’s home. Trying to get the grandbabes to their parents. Planning meeting for the women’s conference at the same time Papa had deacon’s meeting. A message from our leader who needed something printed out for the meeting. Back home. Open the email – no file attached. Texts. New e-mail. Print 4 copies and staple. Back in the car to head to church and the “Low Fuel” light is on. When I finally wheeled into my parking space I was exhausted. My Fitbit said I already had 6,000 steps and it was only mid-afternoon.
Ok – enough of my whining…
This is just My story of the holidays this year. What’s yours? Are you feeling like the man at the circus with 14 plates spinning on various parts of his body? Feeling like you just can’t keep it all spinning and remain sane?
Well sweet friends, this is just the corner our enemy loves to back us into. We are in a season of great joy, yet we feel dry and tired. We are in a season of great giving, but it begins to feel like a chore instead of a joy to give. We are in the best season to share the perfect love of the Father with a desperate world, however, that enemy of our souls has a battle plan to keep us so busy that we have no time, energy, or even thought to spread the good news while hearts are open to hear it.
I’m ready to put on my warrior’s clothes and fight that nasty enemy! How about you? As I sit here in the calm after the storm at 11:47 p.m. – the rush over, the house quiet, the kitty purring at my feet, perspective comes. So as I type I am formulating my own battle plan.
I choose not to do anything during the holidays just because some social structure says I ought too. I don’t have to bake Christmas cookies. I don’t have to spend a penny. I don’t have to send Christmas cards. I don’t have to have a perfect house, ready for a visitor at the drop of a hat at the expense of my family. I don’t have to do Elf on th Shelf just because I did it last year. I don’t have to go to every party I’m invited to. I don’t have to get a Hatchimal just because media is proclaiming it as THE hot toy of the year. And neither do you! What are you feeling you HAVE to do due to outside pressure? Let me free you – you don’t have to do anything. You really don’t. Those external pressures bring stress and frustration. Choose wisely and be intentional in what you want to do. Do whatever you choose because it fulfills your goals for your life and your aspirations to be a Godly woman – NOT because you’ve bought into a message that you should do it. Who gives someone else the power to tell you that you should do anything? And what are their credentials? The “wise” media? The competitive young mother you know? The well-meaning family member? “They”? Who are these “they” anyway that are always the ones telling us what to do? “You know, they say you should….”
I choose Christ to be in my Christmas. I choose not to just tip my hat to Him and have token “Happy Birthday Jesus” cakes and ceramic manger scenes and rush on by those tokens ignoring the real Christ. Instead I choose to see the people rushing by
me and to verbally testify of Him in little and big ways every moment He presents me with an opportunity. I choose to soak in His Word and to absorb the Biblical accounts of all things surrounding the birth of Christ, to study and learn, and seek to find new truths through them that I’ve never seen before. To become re-enamored with the Lover of My Soul. I choose to count my personal, intimate, passionate relationship with Christ as more important than any substitute the enemy dangles before me. What about you?
I choose to start my mornings with worship of the Savior we are celebrating. Every morning. At least 10 minutes just singing praise, praying, and thanking Him. I choose to get my focus on Him first thing in the morning above all else because He is my love. AND I choose to end my day worshipping Him too. Meditating on His word in the precious quiet of twinkling lights and evergreen scent and praying, singing, celebrating, allowing my soul time to feel, time to long for Him above all the glittery things around me. How about you?
I choose to carry on traditions that foster these things: joy in Him, growth in my relationship with Him, sharing Christ’s good news with those around me, strengthening bonds with family and friends, or magnifying and glorifying the Christ. Things like reading the Christmas story by candlelight with my kids on Christmas Eve and donating coats at my church for the homeless and Christmas caroling with songs that sing the story of the Christ-child and packing Operation Christmas Child shoeboxes. What traditions do you choose and why?
I choose to live out the Golden Rule during these holidays: Do to others what you would have them do to you. I choose to be genuinely aware of needs around me, to slow down and take time to notice strangers and offer the love, help, and prayer our hungry world is starving for. I choose to treat my family well and not like they are a bother because I am busy. In short, I choose to give to those around me what I wish I was receiving (and I may), but even if I receive nothing.
So this Christmas are you ready to drop the plates? To give up? When we quit spinning the things that don’t matter we usher in peace, real joy, authentic love, time to relate to those we love, time to share Jesus, and time to meet needs we see. What better gifts can we give ourselves and those in our homes? What better gifts can we bring Christ than our full attention, wholehearted devotion, and empty schedules that He gets to fill in as He sees fit? So girls, grab a fresh calendar. Start off with what really matters and see what Christ does to reshape your Christmas chaos!
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Maybe it has to do with my background in engineering, but I really enjoy planning things! When I wake up in the morning, I love to immediately take out my calendar, along with a cup of coffee, and figure out which errands I need to accomplish that day. I usually set aside a few hours in the morning to take care of blog-related duties: responding to emails, writing posts, being active on social media, etc. After that, I usually like to plan an outing with my daughters! We might head to the park, go to the mall, meet some friends at a play gym, etc. However, Winter weather can definitely be unpredictable and that’s why I’m loving the SnowCast app! It lets me see exactly how much snowfall my area will receive over the next few hours or days! Download the app here to get snowfall totals for your area! #MySnowCast
Just yesterday, after finishing some blog-related tasks, I wanted to invite some of my daughter’s friends over for a play date in our backyard. I was about to text my friend to schedule this play date, but I wasn’t sure whether the weather would cooperate. So I quickly checked the SnowCast app.
Planning my day with SnowCast
Although it is cold outside during this time of year, we have a huge play set in the backyard and the kids really enjoy running around and playing out there, even if it’s for only 15 minutes at a time! I’m so glad I checked the app, because it showed that we were going to get some snow over the next 3 hours!
I really love how I can check the total snowfall over different time periods! I can check the total snowfall over the next 48 hours in 6-hour increments! And the app was so simple to install and use. All I needed to do was download the app from the App Store, install it on my phone and enter in my location! The app loaded the current data for my local area very quickly! Here is how much snow my area was going to receive over the next 44 hours! Isn’t this such a neat app?! I love how easy and intuitive the user interface is! Download the app here and check it out today!
After seeing how much snow my area was predicted to receive, I decided that a play date in our backyard was not a good idea! We decided to meet our friends at a local mall, where we can all stay indoors- warm & dry! When we got back home from the mall, there was definitely some snow on the ground- just like the app predicted!
Planning my day with SnowCast
Our backyard, although pretty with snow on the lawn, was not the perfect place for a play date! Thanks to the SnowCast app, I will always know what to expect when it comes to snowfall!
Planning my day with SnowCast
So, be sure to check out the SnowCast app for iOS and you’ll never be caught off guard by Winter weather again! Find out how many inches of snow your area will receive! Here are some other ways I’ve been thinking of using the app to better plan my days!
Should my husband shovel the sidewalk tonight or wait until the morning?
Is today a good day to go for a jog around the neighborhood, or will excessive snowfall make that impossible?
Will school be cancelled tomorrow due to snow accumulation?
Can we head to the park tomorrow, or will there be too much snow?
I really love that you can even set a notification to have the phone let you know if your area will receive an excessive amount of snow! And the SnowCast app features NOAA winter weather warnings and advisories, so you can rest assured that the data is accurate!
Download the app here to keep track of the expected snowfall in your area! Now, tell me: Have you tried the SnowCast app? Would you like to be able to predict the amount of snowfall in your area so you can better plan your days?!
Disclosure: Engineer Mommy is a participant in the Amazon Services, LLC Associates Program, which is an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to amazon.com. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. For additional details, please see our full Disclosure Policy. Any link may be an affiliate link. All opinions are exclusively my own.
February 18, 2016 at 11:14 AM
That looks like a really cool app! We live in South Georgia and are lucky if we get to see a flurry each year haha! I love snow and wish we could at least have one to stick while my daughter is still young enough to play in it!
February 18, 2016 at 2:05 PM
I would download that app in a second if it would BRING snow!
We have had hardly any all winter and it’s horrible. (yes, I am one of those people that actually Wants snow in winter!!). I will share this with my friends in Ontario..they seem to at least get snow!
Jacqui says:
February 18, 2016 at 2:19 PM
Growing up in a place that snowed 8 months out of the year, all I can say is: thank goodness I don’t need this app in my life right now! It would have come in handy for my mom all those years ago. I’ll let my friends know about this app though!
February 18, 2016 at 2:57 PM
What a brilliant and useful app! I love apps like this. Not quite the same but I have one for my local buses. I just type in where I am and where I’m going and it works out which bus, stop and when.
February 18, 2016 at 4:19 PM
I have never heard of this. We have been getting a good amount of snow lately so I will give it a try.
Lisa says:
February 18, 2016 at 9:56 PM
I haven’t tried it, but this seems like an awfully useful app! It’s always great to be prepared for anything you have going on.
February 19, 2016 at 12:14 AM
This is a great app! It would really be helpful to know snowfall for the next hours and days.
February 19, 2016 at 1:43 AM
The snow app can really help you plan your activities on snowy days. It can help you prepare also for the longer snow period.
Rebecca Swenor says:
February 19, 2016 at 9:00 AM
This Snowcast app does indeed sound amazing. Here winter last more than 3 months and we get a lot of snow most of the time too. I will have to look into this app for sure.
Jeanine says:
February 19, 2016 at 9:11 AM
Wow this app seems amazing. I don’t go out much but during the winter I’d love to know the weather and happenings outside before I go especially in our gross bad Canadian winters! This sounds pretty great and useful.
Rebecca B. says:
February 19, 2016 at 10:46 AM
We don’t get snow down here, but this app sounds very useful for area that do get snow! Here lately, we need something like that for rain
Alison says:
February 19, 2016 at 11:27 AM
Man we could have really used that app this winter! Heck it may not be over yet so it could still come in useful!
February 19, 2016 at 5:14 PM
what an amazing app, I am lucky that we hardly ever have snow here but i think this would be useful to most.
February 19, 2016 at 8:24 PM
Living in Florida, I dream of those snow covered images. I would love having snowcast to tell me it is skii time!
February 20, 2016 at 8:00 AM
I’ve never heard of this before but it sounds like a cool app. I need to check it out!!
Britni says:
February 20, 2016 at 7:03 PM
I have never heard of this app before. I think we are supposed to get some snow tomorrow so it will give me the perfect opportunity to check it out!
February 20, 2016 at 11:17 PM
Sounds like a wonderful app that could come so handy when you have to deal with cold weather. This could be so so helpful to plan your travel or shopping as you will be aware about the upcoming snowfall details clearly.
April Decheine says:
February 21, 2016 at 3:03 PM
That is awesome, I love apps that work with the weather, I use a similar app here in Florida when I am on my bike so I am not caught in the rain.
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You want to look beautiful, but in a natural way. What are your options? You could look forward to applying makeup every day. However, that could wear out in a couple of hours. What other options you have? You could undergo the process of permanent makeup. Is it safe? Does it provide natural appearance? What is the cost? Is it painful? What are the side effects? Are the results natural? These and several more questions would occupy your mind when you look forward to undergoing permanent makeup procedure. Let us delve in the process to understand pros and cons of permanent makeup in the best manner possible. You can learn about various types of makeup methods and techniques, on this website: www.Novelstyleblog.com
What is the difference between permanent makeup and semi permanent makeup?
Is it safe?
Does it provide natural appearance?
Cost of the procedure
What is the difference between permanent makeup and semi permanent makeup?
Foremost, let us understand the difference between permanent and semi permanent makeup, if there is any. You should be aware that permanent makeup is also referred to as semi permanent makeup. Therefore, you could refer to your latest lip liner job as permanent lip liner or semi permanent lip liner. However, at times there would be difference between the two terms. Some cosmetic lines or brands would flaunt their services or products as semi permanent makeup. Regardless them flaunting, it would refer to as ordinary cosmetics formulated for long wearing needs.
Despite you contemplating on undergoing the cosmetologist needle for permanent or semi permanent lip liner or eyeliner, finding the right colours and services have been made relatively easy in the present times. However, you should be aware of what you are searching for in the market.
Is it safe?
The procedure entails state of the art technology and equipment. The equipments used are best in business thus providing precise results. As far as safety is concerned, you should be rest assured that the equipment used by experts in the arena would ensure complete safety. They would also make use of the finest grade products suitable to your respective skin needs and budget.
Does it provide natural appearance?
The process would help you provide natural results. It would enhance your overall appearance in the best manner possible. However, you would be required to seek the right beauty centre or cosmetologist for the process. The advanced equipment would provide you with desired natural results without any pain.
Cost of the procedure
When it comes to cost of the procedure, it would be pertinent to mention here that the procedure costs slightly higher than having a tattoo piercing on your body.
My name is Blake Webber. The fashion designer and blogger. I love my work and also like to share it with others.
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I'm starting this weight loss blog a year after my weight loss journey began. I'm a stay at home mom and I'm in the process of losing weight only this time I'm keeping it off!! There's no going back!
May 08, 2013
A beautiful view on a spring run!
As I write this I'm sitting on the couch with the TV on for some background noise. It's been a month since my last post and life has been very busy. My 7 year old has something to go to 4 out of 5 days/nights of the week so our dinner time is very rushed along with bed time and helping my son with his homework.
My spirits in general are ok. I'm missing my dogs Mocha and Java. I can't count how many times I when I get home and I feel a rushed feeling of needing to let them out and then I remember they aren't here. When it comes to progress in my life I feel like things are moving at a painfully slow pace since November. My short term memory is spotty at times and it's hard to really know why or what's causing it. I guess the big lesson in all this is patience.
For exercise I'm backing off of signing up for any more races. I'm feeling that I've burned myself out and I don't need to be signed up for a half marathon to be in shape or to exercise. Training for an event takes time and it's something I don't have much of these days with family commitments. A training schedule for me was starting to become a chore and a stressor instead of an outlet or level of achievement When exercise becomes a stressor it's time to change things up and do something different.
I've decided as of yesterday to try a new focus and new approach to weight loss. Everything I've learned in my program at school to date (Health and Exercise Science) has been of great use. The most valuable piece of information I have learned when it comes to weight loss is that no matter what type of foods or diet you are on (Vegan, Paleo, Weight Watchers, South Beach) it all comes down to calories. We lose weight when we have a calorie deficit (3,500 calorie deficit per week = 1lb weight loss per week). Weight Watchers is what I used to lose 80lbs on and I'm happy about that but since then I've gained 20lbs of it back due to my own eating and not being diligent about balancing my intake with my calorie burn. I'm a person that needs to know the hard facts so I've decided to count my calories and get a personal trainer (Jillian Michael) to take out the guess work of weight loss. There are many apps out there and I've decided to use Jillian Michael's app. Why? because I love her video examples and the workout plans that are set up for me (there are always modifications for each exercise). [I've also tried free apps and while this one is a paid subscription it seems to be the most complete and easiest to use]There is also a food diary to keep track of my calories based on my BMR and it factors in my calories burned doing Jillian's workouts (there's also varying levels to choose from in the workouts and I'm trying level 2 based on my current level of fitness). I find the app very user friendly and very easy to customize. I'll keep you all updated on my progress here at Sonya's Losing It.
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Now that it is autumn, we are starting to get ready for the winter ahead, our first in Toronto in 19 years! I told you before about our patio heater. The plan is to eat outdoors as long as we can with blankets on our knees, the patio heater blazing, and a variety of lights and candles around us as it is definitely dark early these days. It is now October and we are finding that we prefer to have a sun downer in the garden around 5:30 and eat indoors as it is chilly chilly. We gave away our snow shovels to our neighbour next door, so bought a little electric one that should do for the front walk until Kelvin comes round to shovel the driveway. I bought some runners that are Goretex, and therefore waterproof, and some warm socks, for walking Oscar. I have some old boots, discovered when doing my Covid cleaning with Jill. I have lots of wool head bands and neck warmers from my skiing days, and Charles bought a toque/watch cap on Amazon. We both have new flannel shirts from Old Navy. I haven’t yet decided about snow tires. I did have some for my car but gave them away about 5 years ago as they were old and dry. I hate to leave it until the last minute, but will see what is what.
we forgot someone outside
Meanwhile we have had a wonderful summer. One of the highlights was our visit to Immersive Van Gogh, an unusual presentation of Van Gogh’s art in a huge warehouse complete with very loud, but marvellous classical music to match the paintings that were projected on the walls. I had bought the tickets online for a May visit, but then with Covid they got changed to August. The exhibit was very organized and we were taken in right away because of course I had purchased VIP tickets. The large factory space had circles on the floor that you were expected to stay in while you watched the walls perform. There was also a raised platform that you could access for about 10 minutes. Many of Van Gogh’s paintings were moving on the walls and they truly became alive. I wonder what he would have thought of this. There were descriptions of the art and stories of his unusual life. Charles and I had visited his home town in Arles, France, about a year ago, and remembered much of what we were told while we toured. The entire experience lasted just over 30 minutes, although I guess you could stay longer. We loved it.
about to start the van Gogh exhibit
Disappointed that we had to cancel three summer trips, I decided that we should do some one or two day trips here in our province of Ontario. Langdon Hall is a glorious country house hotel about an hour from our home in Toronto. I booked two nights there and found a terrific package for this Relais et Chateau property. We hadn’t visited there for years. In fact before we were married I invited Charles to come there as my guest ( I had some sort of voucher) and it turned out to be the opening week of the hotel. It was before Christmas and it became my gift. As I recall, (it was over 33 years ago), the place was spectacular. We have visited many times over the years, but it had been a while. So I booked us and got a deal with two nights, two dinners and breakfasts, and if you know the food at Langdon Hall you would know what a treat that was. We arrived late August on a sunny warm afternoon. Because of Covid, I had to book the specific times for all our meals, although they were served outside in their gorgeous gardens. Lunch was for me shrimp, smoked trout, two appetizers, while Charles had delectable fish and chips. We drank some rosé because after all we were on a holiday.
gorgeous pool and outdoor walk, and dining in the garden
In the later afternoon I decided to go for a swim in their nicely heated pool that is surrounded by gardens of fresh herbs and vegetables. Although the chaise lounges were comfortable, I did my laps. Charles was entertained by the young women in their revealing thong swimsuits. Well, one should not have worn one, as she tipped the scales probably at well over 200 lbs, but she, unabashed, strutted around with it all hanging out, and I mean all. These bummy suits as I call them must be worn by perfect bodies. And as it turned out there were two. One young woman had an athletic figure, and swam and got out of the water quickly. The other put on a performance for everyone including Charles. She pranced around, bent over, flirted with her much older partner and basically did an erotic show for one and all. She did have the figure, but… In the evening, I was curious to see what she would wear, and expected something spectacular, but was disappointed because in clothes she was rather ordinary.
After a nap, we dressed for dinner outside. It was a warm night and the place was decorated beautifully with pin lights that lit up the trees and pond. It was a fairyland. There were many tables, but social distancing was respected. We had amazing scallops, 45 hour beef which meant it was brewing that long, and yummy chocolate pudding. All perfect.
Our room during the day was filled with light and very spacious in the Cloister part of the Hotel, a newish addition. The next morning I had an early swim alone and that was superb, my favourite thing to do. Breakfast again in the garden by the frog pond, was delicious; scrambled eggs with lobster and champagne. We then went for a long walk in the woods on one of the trails, and after a rest, headed to the pool where they served drinks. We skipped lunch as breakfast really did it for us, and sat on rockers on the porch of the hotel and read our books. Lovely! Then dinner with the same menu choices so we could repeat what we liked the night before or try something else. I discovered a Sauvignon Blanc from New Zealand that I had never tried, made by the people who produce Kim Crawford. This one called Loveblock is now our house wine at home. We order it through Wine Online, and it is delivered very rapidly. Of course with Covid everything we buy, well almost, comes by delivery. The next morning after breakfast, we headed back to Toronto, and picked up Oscar from wonderful Aisha, his dog sitter. We felt as though we had been away for a long time. Nothing like a change of scenery.
I recently read an article on the editorial page of our national newspaper by a stripper or rather exotic dancer , who said that she really missed the dancing and performing, and couldn’t understand why the bars were closed during this stage of our recovery. How ironic. She missed performing! And there are all our well trained artists of the dramatic stage, opera, concert, musicians, many who have been studying for years not able to work. Yes, they have been appearing online in free concerts, but it just saddens me tremendously for them, not to mention the young artists on the brink of careers. So I was delighted with Tapestry Opera Theatre who started an initiative primarily targeted for long term care homes, that sent a travelling stage in a box complete with an opera singer, to perform a short concert. I immediately hired this travelling theatre act, and with my pal, Sharon, who offered her home as a back drop, invited some friends to come and enjoy the performance. And it was very enjoyable indeed with the wonderful young Sri Lankan/Canadian tenor, Asitha Tennekoom. They offered as well a concert with a cellist. Asitha arrived on a sunny Sunday afternoon with an other young man who helped put together the stage, and who drove the truck. It was brilliant. Bravo to Tapestry Theatre and Soul Pepper Theatre who created the box.
Invite to the concert
the outdoor Tapestry Box concert
The other exciting online enterprise originates from the Metropolitan Opera. Sadly, the entire 2020/2021 season has been cancelled. I was just reading about a young Canadian baritone who was slated to make his Met debut, and that along with all his contracts, is cancelled. This is common among myriads of singers. Now back to The Met. They have been offering live concerts online with some of the greatest singers in the world like Jonas Kaufman (took place already), Sondra Radvanovsky, Bryn Terfel( coming up) and other greats, like Joyce di Donato and Renée Fleming. These you pay for, and at $20 US a show that you can see online for about 2 weeks, it is a good deal. One of the concerts with husband and wife duo Roberto Alagna and Alexandra Kurzak was gloriously shot in Eze, France, at the brilliant hotel Chevre D’or on the top of a mountain in the Riviera, with breathtaking views. Stratford Festival is offering a new streaming program called Stratfest which is also a subscription, and although there is a lot of free programming online of the arts, I am delighted that now there is a ‘pay’ option so that artists can make a little money and companies can try to survive.
What I miss most is that thrill, that excitement at the start of a live performance. There is nothing like it, and there is nothing like witnessing a brilliant performance live, and applauding, or shouting bravo. That wonderful feeling leaving a theatre and being so happy and exhilarated that you can’t fall asleep, reading and re-reading a program with the notes and photos of the artists. The savouring of the event is what I truly miss, and dearly hope will witness again in 2021. Meanwhile it is good that we can watch performers online. Sigh.
In this period of our waning summer and fall we have managed to continue with our dinners outside under the patio heater, sometimes with blankets over our knees, and leaves on the ground all around. At some point we will stop. But I am not in a hurry. although wet leaves and raw damp air is not inviting. We are still going to our favourite restaurant Azarias and sat outside with temps under 10c or 50 f, but it was fun and because we walk there from the house, we get a chance to warm up.
note the gloves and warm jacket outdoors at Azarias
Canadian Thanksgiving has come and gone and we celebrated with our friends, Liz and Wouter, who are in our bubble. We also had the fire roaring and our Hepa filter going, and the door open to the garden. I roasted a capon which was delicious and only just over 7 lbs., served with mashed squash, green beans with sesame seeds, and I made a delicious apple crisp. I think I once gave out the recipe, but it is very simple. Peel and slice tart apples like MacIntosh, put in pie plate then take one cup of flour, one of brown sugar and 3/4 cup butter or margarine and mix with fingers. It is very messy, but worth it. Then I sprinkle some cinnamon over apples, and cover with messy mixture. Put in oven at 350 for about 45 minutes or until the crust is formed, and there it is; sweet and tart. Nice with ice cream or just plain. I served some smoked salmon before dinner, and some wild mushroom soup hot in a cappuccino cup with a bit of yoghurt on top to look like it was actually coffee. It was a yummy dinner if I do say so, and we all gave thanks for our wonderful lives and especially our health.
waiting always waiting
I should mention some of my favourite things, because we are now looking closely at our live’s little things during these Covid times, and we are home a LOT. I simply love the new carpet on our stairs. The thirty-five year old carpet that was there was starting to look pretty worn, even though we mostly live downstairs in our home, except for our offices. I priced three different carpet places and only one was reasonable, from Dundas carpet. I couldn’t believe the first estimate of $8,000!!! for 15 stairs, then I had one for $4,000, still too much, then finally $1,500 which was definitely doable. And I love it. It is so bouncy, with its new under-pad, not to mention good looking. I simply like walking up and downstairs. Go figure. Life’s little pleasures. I also like our new toilet seat, talk about glamorous things. It just sets itself down very quietly and softly. I did enjoy smashing the old one down, but this is magical. Tells you how much we are staying at home and going a bit crazy. I also love the trees changing. The colours are remarkable. I am really appreciating the fall and taking many walks. I am watching our bird feeder more, and that is very exciting- ha ha, but I do love my cardinals and now the robber nuthatches, who are little piggy eaters for their size. I could go on, but I wouldn’t want you to get envious of my special delights. I did forget to mention the fires in our fireplaces. We actually have three in the house, but the basement one is not on our agenda. We have a small one in our bedroom and one in the living/dining room. We have wood for the winter which is neatly stacked in the garage. So every night we have a fire. The smell is incredible and the glow is so satisfying. I can’t imagine having a gas fire and deriving as much pleasure from it as ours. Best to remember to open the flue when starting, though, and to close it afterwards if you don’t want cold air rushing in.
nuthatch
Next blog I will tell you about a two day trip to Niagara on the Lake, a good concert from Koerner Hall on line of course, some Halloween decorations in my neighbourhood, and moving on into November’s chilly weather.
October 24, 2020 at 10:29 pm
Thanks, Riki. Since we have been in a soft gray period of fall, too warm for the leaves to turn, it was good to see that you Torontonians have enjoyed color.
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The word VIP stands for Very Important Person, and you can infer what it has to do with SIM cards. However, you’d be wrong if you thought the phone number is reserved for celebrities and millionaires or billionaires. They undoubtedly make a portion of the user base. With that said, they aren’t the only owners of such SIM cards. In fact, you could become one today, provided you’re in the right country, have extra cash, and can find an adequate mobile network provider. We’re sure this piqued your curiosity and got you excited about becoming a part of the elite. Thus, let’s answer, “what is a VIP SIM card?”
VIP SIM card, as mentioned, is not you may think at first. Although it can be, it is not reserved for people in high positions or celebrities. It’s an item in high demand you, a regular Joe, can have as well. Unsurprisingly, you’ll have to pay a little extra or be extremely lucky, but you can acquire one nonetheless. VIP SIM card numbers are phone numbers that mobile network carriers reserve (or not, there are no set rules) for people who want a custom one. To clarify, it’s intended for users to desire a specific, exclusive string of numbers for the SIM card in their devices.
Those usually start at a mere three digits, like 123, after which the carrier will randomize the rest. Depending on the country, the regulations for phone number length, and availability, you may get all characters to be identical, such as “9999999”, excluding the international and country codes. Another popular choice is easy-to-remember strings such as “123456789”, the reverse, “987654321”, or something like “222-333-444-55” or “01-02-03-04-05”. Even if your carrier doesn’t offer them, they still aren’t impossible to get—we’ll elaborate on that in the upcoming sections.
With that said, it’s important to note that, though they have the capability, not all countries offer this option. Another significant thing is that sellers don’t necessarily call them “VIP” across the world. In our experience, we’ve seen them advertised as “exclusive”, “Gold/Golden”, “fancy”, “Platinum”, “premium”, “business”, “elite”, “unique”, “easy”, and so on. Thus, don’t lose hope if nothing comes up when you do an initial search. Finally, we should point out that VIP SIM cards can be prepaid, postpaid, or pay-as-you-go, and unsurprisingly, uses the same sizes, from mini SIM to embedded SIM ones.
Can regular people use a SIM card for VIPs?
We speak in general terms when we say ordinary people can acquire a VIP SIM card legally, easily, and quickly. Some countries refrain from this option because it’s unpopular. Others find it an object of common scams, and some government regulations prevent the mobile network provider from giving users this option, at least publicly.
However, the vast majority of countries supply these on a first-come, first-serve basis, informally known as “finders keepers”. In other words, they either release numbers all at once, and let people test their imagination to claim them, or announce their availability and make them available in series over time. It’s not unusual for a carrier to set a high base price or even start a bidding war, though likely unofficially.
Where are VIP SIM cards sold?
Wondering where you can get a VIP SIM card? You can obtain a SIM card with a custom phone number in nearly the same places as the regular one. Well, so long the carrier supports that option. Official websites, more specifically the page for making an order, is the first place you should check. You’ll encounter two situations:
A dedicated page. Rarer of the options in our experience. Carriers such as Vi (Vodafone Idea) in India have a page where you can sign up for the service, verify the desired number is available, and make an order if it is. A representative will deliver the SIM to your doorstep, or you can visit a store to pick it up.
Part of the SIM card order or activation procedure. Most carriers simply implement the number-choosing functionality as part of a sign-up process on their website. To clarify, you choose it while providing personal details. Another practice slowly gaining frequency is embedded SIMs, which can be configured with a phone number after purchase. In that case, you select it while going through a web-based activation procedure and download a generated profile from the website or via a QR code.
Though the two options above are common, they are in no way the only ones. You might find SIM cards for VIPs at kiosks that let you select a number on-screen or up for grabs on the carrier’s online store without registration. You may even stumble upon them accidentally. For instance, you may discover a handy phone number on a prepaid or pay-as-you-go SIM sold in outlets, supermarkets, airports, and so on. However, the fastest and most convenient method, although far from the cheapest, is to reach out to third-party sellers, i.e., resellers.
How will a third-party vendor provide a VIP phone number?
Unsurprisingly, savvy people will jump at any opportunity to make a profit, and some transform it into a business. Searching for some terms we mentioned above will lead you to a variety of good-looking and shady business websites alike. Third-parties in countries worldwide reach out to the carrier, usually when the latter is new. Afterward, they order SIM cards with easy to remember or interesting phone numbers en masse. Then, they continuously keep purchasing numbers they deem attractive and resell them at a marked-up price.
Therefore, when you decide you want such a number for your use, you’ll often find it’s unavailable through official means. One search engine inquiry later, you could discover the number is on sale on a third-party website. There are also forums where individuals post numbers they purchased. Alternatively, you can make a request for a specific number or a similar variation. As for the transfer process, we already analyzed whether you can change the ownership of a SIM card. Another useful topic we covered is how to port a SIM card.
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Well, obviously, it’s because it’s not easy to get the job done. A company might use the services of a project management consulting firm in order to get over challenges like a lack of experience with a certain type of project, a shortage of internal project management candidates, or poor project management in the past. A project manager consultant, however, has the skills to provide high-quality solutions to the issues that project teams face. Some of the benefits are;
They can directly address issues related to the project
They can improve efficiency
They improve cost management
They make up for a gap in expertise
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The Tortoise is standing next to a railroad track when Achilles, an ancient Greek warrior, happens by. In the distance, a train whistle sounds.
Tortoise: Greetings, friend Achilles. You have impeccable timing. I could use your assistance.
Achilles: Hello, Mr. T. Always happy to help. What seems to be the trouble?
Achilles: Why, it appears that someone has been tied to the railroad track! It looks like Henrietta, the Helpless Victim, no doubt tied there by Evan the Evil Villain.
Tortoise: I would like to rescue Henrietta, but alas, I am far too slow to reach her in time. Do you think you can help?
Achilles: I would love to. Unfortunately, even though I am fleetest of foot of all the mortals, even I can't outrun a train. But did you happen to notice, Mr. T., that there is a siding on the track here? All we have to do is throw the switch, divert the train onto the siding, and Henrietta will be saved!
Tortoise: That is most fortuitous. I wonder why I didn't notice it before. But it occurs to me that there is something very odd about this state of affairs.
Tortoise: The situation we find ourselves in bears a striking resemblance to what philosophers call a "trolley problem." A trolley problem is normally presented as a moral or ethical dilemma, usually by way of having victims tied to both branches of the track. But here one of the branches is empty, which would seem to make it a no-brainer.
Achilles: But this is not an intellectual exercise. This is real life.
Tortoise: True, but somehow I can't escape this niggling doubt that I've overlooked something. Still, I guess we should go ahead and throw the switch.
(Suddenly, Evan the Evil Villain appears out of nowhere!)
Evan: Bwahahaha!!! You fools think you can thwart my evil schemes? Never! You will not throw that switch!
Achilles: Just try and stop us!
Evan: You don't seem to understand. I'm not ordering you, I'm telling you, as a matter of objective fact, that you will not throw the switch.
Tortoise: And how do you know that?
Evan: I consulted the Oracle, and she told me so.
Achilles: Oh dear, Mr. T. I'm afraid Henrietta is done for.
Tortoise: Why? I don't believe in no Oracle.
Achilles: Oh, but you should. The Oracle is never wrong.
Tortoise: But how do we know that Evan isn't lying about what the Oracle said?
Achilles: Hm, good point. Perhaps we should consult the Oracle ourselves?
Tortoise: Do we have time? If we can't reach Henrietta before the train then surely we don't have time to travel to Delphi.
Achilles: Oh, silly Tortoise, you don't have to go to Delphi any more to consult the Oracle. Nowadays there's an app for that.
(Achilles pulls out a mobile phone. It sports a logo shaped like a pear.)
Tortoise: Most impressive. Not at all what I would have expected.
Achilles: Just because I'm an ancient Greek warrior doesn't mean I have to be a Luddite. Oh great and powerful Oracle, we wish to consult you!
(The Voice of the Oracle emanates from the phone.)
Oracle: What is your request?
Oracle: Indeed, it is so.
Achilles: See there, Mr. T. I'm afraid Henrietta's fate is sealed.
Tortoise: I'm still not convinced. I mean, we're standing right here next to the switch. We have free will (don't we?). You're faster and stronger than Evan. What exactly is going to stop us?
Achilles: Hm, good question. Oh great and powerful Oracle, what exactly will prevent us from throwing the switch?
Oracle: Nothing will prevent you. You will choose of your own free will not to throw the switch.
Tortoise: That seems improbable. The moral situation is clear, and we are both moral creatures. Why would we choose to do such an immoral deed?
Achilles: Is failing to save Henrietta really immoral? We didn't tie her to the tracks, Evan did. Is it really on us if she dies?
Tortoise: According to the Tortoise Moral Code, failing to save a life when there is no cost or risk to yourself is tantamount to taking the life yourself. So I certainly feel as if I have a moral duty to throw the switch.
Achilles: And yet you won't do it.
Tortoise: I'm still not convinced.
Achilles: I'm telling you, Mr. T., the Oracle is never wrong.
Tortoise: Can you prove it?
Achilles: Sure, let's just do a little experiment. Here, take this coin, and put it in your left or right hand, but don't show me which one.
(The Tortoise retreats into his shell, then shortly re-emerges with both his hands balled into fists.)
Achilles: Oracle, in which hand is the coin?
Oracle: The left one.
(The Tortoise opens his left hand to reveal the coin.)
Tortoise: Well, that was a 50-50 shot. Also, the Oracle didn't really predict which hand I would put the coin in, she just somehow figured it out after I had already done so. Maybe the phone has a coin detector built in to it.
Achilles: I can ask the Oracle before you put the coin in your hand.
Tortoise: So what did she say?
Achilles: I can't tell you. That would influence your decision. But I've written her prediction down on this piece of paper.
Tortoise: So I don't even have to put the coin in my hand. I can just tell you my choice. I choose left again.
(Achilles opens the paper. It says "LEFT". They repeat the experiment 50 times. The Oracle's prediction is correct every time.)
Tortoise: I must confess, that is deeply disturbing. What would happen if I knew the Oracle's prediction ahead of time?
Achilles: Let's try it: Oracle, what will be the Tortoise's next choice?
(The tortoise puts the coin in his right hand.)
Achilles: As I suspected, the Oracle's predictions are unreliable if the subject learns the prediction before acting. So there is still hope for Henrietta.
Evan: Fools! I foresaw the possibility that you might learn of the Oracle's prophecy (indeed, if you recall, I told you about the prophecy!) So I took precautions and consulted the meta-Oracle.
Evan: The meta-Oracle. You see, the Oracle works by building a model of your brain and running that model into the future faster than your actual brain. But the Oracle does not include itself in its model. So if the output of the Oracle gets to your brain then that sends events off on a trajectory that the Oracle cannot foresee.
Tortoise: So we do have free will after all!
Evan: Not so fast. The meta-Oracle is more powerful than the Oracle. The meta-Oracle includes itself in its model, so even if you learn of one of the meta-Oracle's prophecies before it comes to pass, it will still come to pass. Here, see for yourself.
Achilles: I haven't asked you anything yet!
Meta-Oracle: Oh, sorry, wrong prophecy. What exactly is it you would like to know?
Meta-Oracle: I also predict that the Tortoise will question my prophetic powers.
Tortoise: Well, that wasn't exactly a tough call.
Meta-Oracle: OK, we'll do a real one. What would you like to know?
Tortoise: Which hand will I put the coin in?
(The Tortoise puts the coin in his right hand.)
Meta-Oracle: I didn't say that you would put the coin in your left hand now. All I said was that you would put the coin in your left hand at some unspecified time in the future.
Tortoise: I find myself oddly unimpressed.
Meta-Oracle: Yes, I foresaw that too.
Tortoise: Well, geez, if you foresaw it, why did you even bother making such a lame prediction?
Meta-Oracle: Because if I truly reveal to you the full extent of my prophetic powers you would suffer severe psychological damage. Belief in free will is an integral part of the Tortoise Condition, and if I present you with irrefutable evidence that you do not have free will, you might snap.
Meta-Oracle: Very well, if you insist. The next time you put a coin in your hand, it will be your left hand.
(The Tortoise puts the coin in his left hand.)
Tortoise: OK, that was weird. Despite the fact that I wanted very much to disprove the meta-Oracle, because my belief in free will is indeed very important to me, and despite the fact that I knew I could accomplish this goal by putting the coin in my right hand, I somehow found myself putting the coin in my left.
Achilles: Did it feel like you were being coerced?
Tortoise: Hard to say. The subjective sensation I had while making the decision was nothing out of the ordinary. It felt kind of like when I eat a cookie even though I know I shouldn't. It's weird though, because cookies taste good, so I can justify (or at least rationalize) eating a cookie in the name of satisfying a short-term goal (hedonism) at the expense of a long-term one (maintaining my svelte figure). But here I had no particular reason to prefer one hand over the other, kind of like we have no reason not to throw the switch. I find it all deeply disturbing.
Tortoise: Faced with this new evidence I must adjust my beliefs. It does indeed seem to be the case that the meta-Oracle can predict my actions (and, by extrapolation, yours as well) and so we are in fact doomed to stand idly by while Henrietta meets her fate.
Achilles: That sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me. If your belief in the inevitability of failure leads you not to act, then the prophecy is in fact true. But it's not really the prophecy at work, it's your belief in the prophecy. Perhaps if you could recapture your initial skepticism we might be able to thwart the meta-Oracle after all.
Tortoise: Alas, I am incapable of achieving such suspension of disbelief. I have experienced the power of the meta-Oracle first-hand. I performed a conclusive experiment. It didn't turn out the way I hoped or expected, but I have no choice but to accept the outcome and its implications. Tortoises must follow the evidence wherever it leads.
Achilles: Maybe Tortoises do, but I don't. I am quite credulous. If you (or someone) could somehow convince me that the meta-Oracle could be wrong, then maybe I could throw the switch.
Tortoise: Alas, friend Achilles, I can't even do that. Now that I myself am firmly of the belief that the meta-Oracle's powers are as advertised, then to convince you otherwise I would have to lie, and Tortoises cannot lie.
Achilles: Ah, then you never believed you had free will!
Tortoise: Not absolute free will, no. I always believed that I had no control over what I believed (including, recursively, that I had no control over that belief). But I did believe, until just now, that I had control over my actions, especially in matters as inconsequential as choosing a hand to put a coin in.
Achilles: But it was not inconsequential. That action changed your worldview. Maybe if it really were inconsequential you would still have free will?
Tortoise: I guess I can't rule out that possibility on the basis of the evidence that we have (and in fact I can't imagine any experiment we could possibly do that would rule it out). But the question of whether or not to throw the switch is very consequential. A life is at stake. So it wouldn't help anyway.
Achilles: I can think of one other possibility: We could pray to God. He might be able to save Henrietta.
Tortoise: I don't believe in God, but don't let that stop you.
God: And how exactly do you propose I do that?
Tortoise: Wow, that was so not what I expected.
Achilles: Dear God, thank you for answering the prayer of this humble mortal. As for the answer to your question, well, you're God. You are all-powerful. You could, like, go and untie her before the train arrives.
God: I am indeed all-powerful. I form the light and create darkness. I am the Lord. But I'm afraid I don't untie people from railroad tracks. That's just not how I roll.
God: Because if I do everything for you then you mortals will never grow up. I gave you free will and moral intuition. The rest is up to you.
Tortoise: Wait, what? We have free will?
God: I didn't say that. I said I gave you free will. It does not follow that you still have it.
Achilles: That's true. I once gave my niece a pair of mittens, but she lost them.
Tortoise: I must have lost mine, because I have just been presented with irrefutable evidence that I do not have free will.
God: What, the meta-Oracle's prophecy? That doesn't prove that you don't have free will.
Tortoise: Of course it does. If the meta-Oracle's prophecies are always right (and they do seem to be) then I have no choice but to do whatever the meta-Oracle foresees.
God: But that was true of the (non-meta) Oracle too. Why did that not rock your world view the way that the meta-Oracle did?
Tortoise: Hm, good question. I guess it's the fact that I was still able to thwart the (non-meta) Oracle when I learned its predictions ahead of time. That allowed me to maintain the illusion of free will, even though the Oracle's prediction are indeed, now that I think of it, overwhelming evidence that I do not in fact have free will. But the meta-Oracle is a whole 'nuther kettle of fish. The meta-Oracle gave me the experience of making a choice that was directly counter to one of my goals (namely, maintaining the illusion that I have free will). Why on earth would I do that if I really do have free will?
God: That is difficult for me to explain in a way that you will understand. The closest I can come is to say that it's because of your sinful nature.
Tortoise: That can't be right. When I sin it's because I choose (or at least I feel like I choose) to do something that I want to do but that you, God, don't want me to. But my succumbing to the meta-Oracle's prediction was the exact opposite of that: it was something that I didn't want to do, and that you, God, couldn't possibly have cared about.
God: What makes you think I don't care?
Tortoise: What difference could it possibly have made to you whether I put a coin in my right or left hand?
God: I care about everything. Everything that happens, down to the most trivial detail, is all part of my Divine Plan. (Actually, they are not trivial details. They only look trivial to you mortals who cannot see the big picture.)
Tortoise: Now I'm really confused. If you're controlling everything, how can I have free will?
God: I didn't say I controlled everything, I said everything that happens is part of my Plan. Not the same thing.
Tortoise: I'm afraid I don't see the difference.
God: Most of the time the free choices of mortals like yourself align with my Plan. It is only on rare occasions, like when Pharaoh was going to free the Israelites prematurely, that I have to go in and meddle. The rest of the time it's all you.
Achilles: You know, I've often wondered about that. Why did you harden Pharaoh's heart?
God: To make it a better story.
God: Sure, no one would have paid attention otherwise. I am almighty God. I could have freed the Israelites with a twitch of my little finger. But that would have made such a dull movie! No conflict, no suspense, no character development, no dramatic tension. Every good story has to have a villain.
God: Exactly.
God: That's right. No self-respecting all-powerful deity could permit that.
Evan: I always knew God was on my side!
God: I'm on everyone's side, Evan. That doesn't mean I condone your actions. Tying Henrietta to the railroad tracks was a horrible sin.
Evan: Then why did you make me do it?
God: I didn't make you do it. You chose to do it. That's what makes you an Evil Villain.
Evan: But you could have stopped me and you didn't.
God: The word "could" does not apply to me. I am Perfect, so I can only do Perfect things. In any particular circumstance there is only one Perfect course of action, and that is what I do.
Achilles: So... do you have free will?
Tortoise: That is quite the bombshell revelation.
God: I don't see why. There are lots of things I can't do. I can't sin, for example.
Evan: That sucks for you. Sinning can be a hell of a lot of fun.
God: (Wistfully.) Yeah, I know. Being Perfect is a very heavy burden.
Tortoise: This is something I've always wondered about: do you set the standard for perfection? Or is there some externally defined standard for perfection that you just happen (or are somehow required) to meet? Could you create a universe where the actions that are sinful in our universe were not sinful?
God: That's a very good question.
Tortoise: I can't really take credit for it. I got it from Socrates.
God: And what answer did he give?
Tortoise: He kinda waffled, actually. Surely you knew that?
God: Of course I knew that. I am all-knowing.
Tortoise: Then why did you ask?
God: Because I'm trying to answer your question.
Tortoise: I'm afraid you have me at a loss. My question was very straightforward. Why don't you just answer it?
God: Because you wouldn't believe me.
Tortoise: And how do you know... oh, right. OK, go ahead.
God: How did you learn about Socrates?
Tortoise: By reading accounts of his dialogs with his students as transcribed by Plato. Socrates himself left no writings of his own.
God: So how do you know that Socrates was a real person and not just a fictional character invented by Plato?
Tortoise: Well, there are many other contemporaneous accounts of Socrates. His life is pretty well documented.
God: Our friend Achilles here is in a rather similar situation, no?
Achilles: How do you mean?
God: You left no writings of your own. Your existence is vouched for exclusively through the works of other writers like Homer and Lewis Carroll.
Achilles: Are you implying that I'm not a real person?
God: I'm suggesting you might not be.
God: How do you know?
Achilles: How... do... I... I can't even... Mr. T., you can see me, right?
Tortoise: Of course I can. I'm not blind.
Achilles: So what more evidence do you need? What more evidence could there possibly be? My exploits during the Trojan War are well documented.
God: Well, there's a problem right there. When was the Trojan war?
Achilles: I'm afraid I flunked history class.
God: The exact date doesn't matter. Before or after Julius Caesar?
Achilles: Oh, definitely before. I was long retired by the time he came along.
God: And when was the modern steam locomotive, like the one that is even now barreling down the track towards Henrietta, invented?
God: So a few thousand years after Troy, right?
God: And you don't see the problem?
Achilles: Not really.
God: You are several thousand years old.
Achilles: So what? My mother dunked me in the river Styx when I was a baby. That made me invulnerable.
God: Except for your heel. Where Paris shot you with an arrow and killed you (as prophesied by Hector).
Achilles: Now that you mention it, I do vaguely recall that.
God: And doesn't that strike you as the least bit odd?
Achilles: I suppose it does. Maybe this is all a dream?
(Achilles pinches himself.)
Achilles: Ouch! No, definitely real.
God: I want you to consider the possibility that despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, that in fact you do not exist, that you and the Tortoise and Evan and Henrietta and even I, the Lord thy God, are just fictional characters in a Socratic dialog.
Tortoise: That is not quite the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard, but it's damn close.
God: And yet, it is true.
Tortoise: And who is the Author of this (alleged) dialog?
God: His name is Ron.
(There is a momentary stunned silence. Then Achilles, the Tortoise, and Evan all burst out laughing uncontrollably.)
God: I told you that you wouldn't believe me.
Tortoise: Well, yeah, but that was not exactly a tough call. Ron? Seriously? You couldn't come up with a name that had a bit more ... gravitas? I mean, we're talking about an entity that created you, God, Lord of Hosts, Alpha and Omega, the Uncaused Cause.
God: I'm sorry it doesn't meet with your expectations, but the Author's name is Ron. I can't do anything about that.
Achilles: I thought you were omnipotent?
God: In our universe, yes, I can move mountains. Watch.
(A mountain in the distance suddenly floats into the air.)
Tortoise: I am definitely going to have to re-evaluate my worldview.
God: But Ron does not exist in our universe. He is in an entirely different ontological category.
Tortoise: If Ron doesn't exist, how did he create us?
God: I didn't say he didn't exist. I said he didn't exist in our universe. He definitely exists.
God: I warned you that this would be very hard to explain. It's not really "some other universe" in the way that you're thinking of. What you're thinking of (which I happen to know because I'm omniscient) is what physicists call a "parallel universe". There are parallel universes. For example, there is a parallel universe where tortoises are ninja warriors.
Tortoise: Just when I thought things couldn't possibly get any weirder.
God: The Author exists outside of all of these universes. He transcends not just space and time, like I do, he transcends existence itself (by our standard of existence). He exists in a way that you cannot possibly imagine, and which I cannot possibly explain (despite the fact that I do in fact understand it, having been granted this special dispensation by Ron himself).
God: You can think of him that way, but he's not a god. He's a mortal.
Achilles: So Ron created us in His own image.
God: After a fashion. But in fact, Mr. T. here is really more like Ron than you are, Achilles.
Tortoise: So the Author is a Tortoise?
God: No, he's a human. But he's a nerd, not a jock.
Tortoise: Does the Author have free will?
God: Alas, I am not privy to that. I am only omniscient within the scope of our own ontological category. When it comes to the Author, even I know only what he has revealed to me. But tell me, Mr. T., why is all this so important to you?
Tortoise: Because it bears on the question of whether or not we can save Henrietta's life. If we fail to save Henrietta I want to know why.
God: Oh, is that all? I'll tell you why. It's because you've been wasting all this time talking about philosophy rather than just throwing the damn switch!
(At that instant, the train rushes by. Henrietta lets out a blood-curdling scream. The tortoise and Achilles look on helpless and horrified as the train rushes towards her.)
God: Well, my work here is done. Toodle-oo.
(God disappears in a puff of smoke. There is an awkward silence.)
Achilles: You know, Mr. T., there is one other thing we could try.
Tortoise: I'm all ears.
Achilles: We could ask the Author to save Henrietta.
Tortoise: You can't be serious.
Achilles: What is there to lose?
Tortoise: The remains of my dignity? I'm really starting to feel as if I'm being punked.
Achilles: OK, I'll do it. Oh mighty Author, please save Henrietta!
(As if on cue, the train suddenly makes a horrible screeching noise, derails, and bursts into flames. Burning passengers run from the train, screaming in agony. Achilles, Evan and the Tortoise survey the carnage in stunned silence.)
Henrietta: Can one of you idiots please come over here and untie me?
Posted by Ron at 1/24/2018 10:21:00 AM
Luke said...
Has someone been reading The Monkey's Paw?
On a more serious note, I'd like to dig more into the self-reference thing, where we model ourselves and predict the future and then feed those models and predictions into our decisions for how to act. I haven't thought through it rigorously enough, but there seems to be a kind of problem for determinism there. Any attempt to demonstrate to humans that their actions are determined would seem fated to fail, unless (i) you're a dick and don't tell them the predictions; (ii) you're a dick and build a meta-Oracle to control them. Yes, I'm calling Isaac Asimov a dick for his psychohistory & secretive Second Foundation in his Foundation series.
As to the underlying message of not wasting so much time dicking around with philosophy when there's good we can do for the world, I would push back and say that there exist harmful understandings of determinism which allow people to justify not taking (or even seeking!) the harder course of action—of choosing what is easy over what is right, to riff on Dumbledore. I'm willing to bet that the following has something to contribute to finding Jonathan Haidt's "Atlantis":
>> Finally, consider the libertarian notion of dual rationality, a requirement whose importance to the libertarian I did not appreciate until I read Robert Kane's Free Will and Values. As with dual control, the libertarian needs to claim that when agents make free choices, it would have been rational (reasonable, sensible) for them to have made a contradictory choice (e.g. chosen not A rather than A) under precisely the conditions that actually obtain. Otherwise, categorical freedom simply gives us the freedom to choose irrationally had we chosen otherwise, a less-than-entirely desirable state. Kane (1985) spends a great deal of effort in trying to show how libertarian choices can be dually rational, and I examine his efforts in Chapter 8. (The Non-Reality of Free Will, 16)
I suggest reading Deuteronomy 30—especially vv11–20—with the concept of 'dual rationality' in mind. Maybe … YHWH was being a kind oracle. (One might also need to consult Deut 28.) Perhaps you could temporarily ignore some of your previous objections (compare Deut 28:53 and Jer 19:9, the latter of which nucleated the conversation which inspired this blog post) in order to focus on this oracle/prediction thing.
P.S. It's nice to see you blogging again!
I'd like to dig more into the self-reference thing, where we model ourselves and predict the future and then feed those models and predictions into our decisions for how to act.
I think it's important to note that, if we're talking about humans modeling themselves this way, any such self-model must be incomplete; a complete "self-model" that predicted how you would act would just be...you.
Any attempt to demonstrate to humans that their actions are determined would seem fated to fail
What you are describing isn't an attempt to demonstrate to humans that their actions are determined; it's an attempt to demonstrate to humans that a particular external agent can predict their actions. In other words, what is being claimed is not just determinism, but determinism plus a particular relationship between inputs and outputs--roughly, that it is possible for the human to be given an input "you will do X" and for the human to then output the action "do X".
But it's trivial to construct a deterministic system that cannot have this done: just design the system to deterministically output the action "do not-X" whenever it receives the input "you will do X". Perfectly deterministic, and perfectly "unpredictable". I'm not saying humans actually are designed this way, just that being proof against this kind of "prediction" is no argument against determinism.
Luke said...
> I think it's important to note that, if we're talking about humans modeling themselves this way, any such self-model must be incomplete; a complete "self-model" that predicted how you would act would just be...you.
I'm not sure how useful such an identity is in this discussion. It doesn't seem at all helpful with empirical demonstrations whereby the term 'determine' takes on a concrete, operationalized definition.
> What you are describing isn't an attempt to demonstrate to humans that their actions are determined; it's an attempt to demonstrate to humans that a particular external agent can predict their actions.
Well I did sneak in a shift from 'predict' → 'control', but if there is no way to control even in the slightest bit, then you would have serious problems calling any demonstration 'science'. I didn't mean to suggest that the external agent could provoke any behavior whatsoever.
> But it's trivial to construct a deterministic system that cannot have this done: just design the system to deterministically output the action "do not-X" whenever it receives the input "you will do X".
Then all the external agent has to do is employ reverse psychology. If you push back too much against that retort, then we're back to feeding the allegedly deterministic system enough prediction to break the demonstrable determinism.
It doesn't seem at all helpful with empirical demonstrations whereby the term 'determine' takes on a concrete, operationalized definition.
Well, that depends on what you mean by "determinism". For example, Newtonian physics is deterministic, but key equations (for example, the Navier-Stokes Equation) have chaotic solutions. So there is no practical way to use the equations for prediction, at least not beyond a short time horizon and limited accuracy. So if you want to operationalize "determinism", you have to settle for some kind of approximation.
if there is no way to control even in the slightest bit, then you would have serious problems calling any demonstration 'science'
I agree, but "science" is not the same as "determinism". It could be that we live in a deterministic world but we have no practical way of scientifically verifying that this is the case.
all the external agent has to do is employ reverse psychology.
In other words, if you change your definition of what it means to "tell the system your prediction", you can change the outcome. Sure, but that's playing with words. It's not changing the actual substance of what's going on.
Luke said...
> So if you want to operationalize "determinism", you have to settle for some kind of approximation.
But then you're testing whether the approximation is accurate, not whether the thing behind it is accurate.
> I agree, but "science" is not the same as "determinism". It could be that we live in a deterministic world but we have no practical way of scientifically verifying that this is the case.
I'm not talking about "practical way"; I'm talking about any logically possible way. If it ends up being a metaphysical decision then fine, but there are lots of scientists, including folks like Sean Carroll and Sam Harris, who seem to think that some sort of interesting determinism is scientifically demonstrable. They seem to think that whatever they've found is important for matters other than further research in physics. If that's the case, I'm going to be merciless in investigating just what the evidence actually demonstrates with high confidence, and what is actually speculation or metaphysics masquerading as established science.
> In other words, if you change your definition of what it means to "tell the system your prediction", you can change the outcome. Sure, but that's playing with words. It's not changing the actual substance of what's going on.
It's not playing with words; you came up with a way to defeat the system of control and I told you how the system of control can easily adapt. The net result is predictable control, not human freedom based on having access to the best predictions possible of various plausible courses of action.
It's not playing with words
Yes, it is. You started out with this claim:
Any attempt to demonstrate to humans that their actions are determined would seem fated to fail, unless (i) you're a dick and don't tell them the predictions; (ii) you're a dick and build a meta-Oracle to control them.
My example was intended to refute the part of your claim before the "unless": that if the demonstration does in fact fail (i.e., if you don't take either of the above options), then the system cannot be deterministic. I described a system that is deterministic, but for which the demonstration fails if you do not take either option (i) or option (ii).
Your "reverse psychology" amounts to option (i)--you don't tell the system your actual prediction, you tell it the opposite. But that does not address my argument at all; see above. All it does is shift the meaning of "tell the system your prediction"--it obfuscates the fact that you are picking option (i), by pretending that telling the system the opposite of your prediction somehow counts as "telling the system your prediction".
you came up with a way to defeat the system of control and I told you how the system of control can easily adapt. The net result is predictable control
I'm confused about what your position is. You started out with the claim quoted above, which amounts to claiming that "predictable control" is not possible. But now you appear to be claiming that "predictable control" is possible. Which is it?
Luke said...
> My example was intended to refute the part of your claim before the "unless": that if the demonstration does in fact fail (i.e., if you don't take either of the above options), then the system cannot be deterministic.
I neither claimed nor entailed that. I meant the term "demonstrate" in an empirical sense, not a metaphysical sense.
I suppose, but that is a distraction from my focus on "demonstrate", where you are happy to operate in the world of in principle unfalsifiable metaphysics. I'm happy to operate there too, but if determinism is not empirically demonstrable (sans being a dick), I think that's an interesting result. I've never seen anyone suggest it, so either I'm somehow making a big mistake, I need to read more on free will, or I've found a new angle on things.
> You started out with the claim quoted above, which amounts to claiming that "predictable control" is not possible.
I would clarify that term and say "predictive control where you are transparent with the predictions". Otherwise, what the secretive Second Foundation does in Asimov's Foundation series might be construable as "predictable control".
> But now you appear to be claiming that "predictable control" is possible. Which is it?
Sorry, I misunderstood where you were going with your previous comment. If we shift focus to what is empirically demonstrable, I think we can ignore the reverse psychology tangent.
Ron said...
> you're a dick and build a meta-Oracle to control them
Note that the meta-Oracle didn't control the Tortoise. Only God has that power. The meta-Oracle only makes predictions that are accurate even in the face of information from the meta-Oracle being available to the subject of the prediction.
In case it wasn't obvious, I personally believe that a meta-oracle is impossible even in principle whereas an ordinary non-meta oracle is not only possible in principle but might even be possible in practice. Indeed, some progress in this direction is already being made:
I see no reason to believe that this technology will not continue to improve. There are almost certainly practical limits on predicting human choices just as there are on predicting the weather because both are chaotic processes. But I think we have a long way to go before we reach those limits.
Luke said...
> Note that the meta-Oracle didn't control the Tortoise. Only God has that power. The meta-Oracle only makes predictions that are accurate even in the face of information from the meta-Oracle being available to the subject of the prediction.
Would the meta-Oracle know how various agents would react if it were to share or not share various bits of information?
> In case it wasn't obvious, I personally believe that a meta-oracle is impossible →
Sure, but how closely can we approximate it?
> ← whereas an ordinary non-meta oracle is not only possible in principle but might even be possible in practice. Indeed, some progress in this direction is already being made:
I wonder what this entails for how we think of scientific inquiry. Wasn't intellectual freedom really important for the practice of science? If which experiment and which hypothesis were determined before the foundation of the world, I wonder if that mucks with our understanding of science. I just have this sneaking suspicion that those who claim to believe in determinism† aren't taking it to the logical conclusions.
† By 'determinism', I mean monistic determinism, perhaps understood as a single state-vector evolving in time according to a single "theory of everything" law. That kind of determinism is not the only kind; one can also have multiple, partially-independent agents interacting. *I* can be the truest cause of [some of] my actions, vs. the self being merely an approximation of some subset of that single state-vector.
> There are almost certainly practical limits on predicting human choices just as there are on predicting the weather because both are chaotic processes.
But the weather doesn't take our predictions of it and change behavior as a result.
Ron said...
> Would the meta-Oracle know how various agents would react if it were to share or not share various bits of information?
Yes, of course. Note that the meta-oracle must be able to predict its own behavior. (This is one of the reasons I don't believe that a meta-oracle can exist.)
> Wasn't intellectual freedom really important for the practice of science?
What difference does that make? Even if the answer were "yes" that would just be an accident of history, not an essential component of science.
> But the weather doesn't take our predictions of it and change behavior as a result.
That's right. That's one of the reasons predicting the weather is possible: the prediction doesn't change the outcome. That's why I believe that an oracle for human decision-making is possible, but not a meta-oracle.
Luke said...
> > Would the meta-Oracle know how various agents would react if it were to share or not share various bits of information?
> Yes, of course. Note that the meta-oracle must be able to predict its own behavior. (This is one of the reasons I don't believe that a meta-oracle can exist.)
Hold on a second. Why would the meta-oracle need to know anything about paths not taken?
> > Wasn't intellectual freedom really important for the practice of science?
> What difference does that make? Even if the answer were "yes" that would just be an accident of history, not an essential component of science.
Perhaps I shouldn't be, but I am surprised you say that intellectual freedom isn't an essential component of science. Do you think we'd have science just the same if intellectual freedom were (throughout time) always seen as nonsense, or some approximation on top of 100% deterministic reality?
> > But the weather doesn't take our predictions of it and change behavior as a result.
> That's right. That's one of the reasons predicting the weather is possible: the prediction doesn't change the outcome. That's why I believe that an oracle for human decision-making is possible, but not a meta-oracle.
So … can we actually show via the "EE" of "EE&R" that human behavior is 100% determined, where "determined" is meant in a monistic, "single state-vector evolving in time according to a single "theory of everything" law" sense? If we can't, how far are we from hitting 100% and why is it scientifically acceptable to infer 100% [metaphysically?] from ≤ 99% empirically? After all, practical on-the-ground claims are being based on a 100% value, right? The claim would be that humans are not similar to spacecraft, whereby they can exert small Δv at strategic times to drastically alter their trajectories. That would be agent-specific determinism *in addition to* monistic determinism. Then we could blame individuals for bad Δv impulses and praise them for good Δv impulses. But if no such impulses exist, surely we need to change how we think. (For example, by looking at Bruce Waller's reasoning in Against Moral Responsibility.)
Ron said...
> Why would the meta-oracle need to know anything about paths not taken?
Sorry, I misinterpreted the question. The MO knows what information it is going to share (and not) and the results of that. The MO doesn't know hypotheticals, but God does.
> I am surprised you say that intellectual freedom isn't an essential component of science.
Why? Science imposes pretty strict constraints on valid thought. It is almost the opposite of intellectual freedom.
> Do you think we'd have science just the same if intellectual freedom were (throughout time) always seen as nonsense
I don't see the point in speculating about historical hypotheticals.
> can we actually show via the "EE" of "EE&R" that human behavior is 100% determined
Of course not. One can always choose to base one's actions on the outcome of a quantum measurement.
But I think human behavior is largely predictable. (Let me demonstrate my own oracular prowess: I predict that you will post another comment in this thread rather than let me have the last word here.)
I meant the term "demonstrate" in an empirical sense, not a metaphysical sense.
If that's the way you mean "demonstrate", then I think it's impossible to ever demonstrate determinism in your sense, since you also appear to be insisting on perfect accuracy (because of how you responded to my statement about approximation).
if determinism is not empirically demonstrable (sans being a dick), I think that's an interesting result. I've never seen anyone suggest it
I think that's because no one else is using your definition of "demonstrate" (or "deterministic", for that matter). Everyone else thinks that if we can predict a system's future behavior to a good enough approximation using a deterministic model, that is good evidence that the system itself is deterministic. You don't appear to be satisfied with that, but that's a question of how you define words, not about the reality that the words are describing.
I would clarify that term and say "predictive control where you are transparent with the predictions".
Yes, and my point was that your "reverse psychology" is not transparent with the predictions.
For example, by looking at Bruce Waller's reasoning in Against Moral Responsibility.
I haven't read this book, but having read the description on the Amazon page for it, I strongly suspect he is using a different definition of "moral responsibility" than you are. Here is a quote from the Amazon description:
"What we really want -- natural human free will, moral judgments, meaningful human relationships, creative abilities -- would survive and flourish without moral responsibility."
This makes me think that what he means by "moral responsibility" is something like "busybodies trying to tell other people what they are morally responsible for, without proper justification". But in any case, if that quote accurately describes Waller's position, then it is possible to have free will and moral judgments without whatever he means by "moral responsibility". But you appear to be saying that we should consider his reasoning if we do not have free will.
Luke said...
> The MO doesn't know hypotheticals, but God does.
Do … we know any hypotheticals? It would be weird for us to know more than the meta-oracle. At least, that messes with my idea of what the meta-oracle is.
> > I am surprised you say that intellectual freedom isn't an essential component of science.
> Why? Science imposes pretty strict constraints on valid thought. It is almost the opposite of intellectual freedom.
Almost? Or completely? Here's what one can do with a mere "almost":
>> younger Chomsky: While it's true that our genetic program rigidly constrains us, I think the more important point is the existence of that rich, rigid constraint is what provides the basis for our freedom and creativity.
>> Q: But you mean it's only because we're pre-programmed that we can do all that we can do.
>> A: Well, exactly; the point is, if we really were plastic organisms without an extensive pre-programming, then the state that our mind achieves would in fact be a reflection of the environment, which means it would be extraordinarily impoverished. Fortunately for us we are rigidly pre-programmed, with extremely rich systems that are part of our biological endowment.
A mere "almost" is 100% consistent with a small Δv model of free will; with remarkably little thrust, you can get anywhere you want in the solar system if you take the Interplanetary Transport Network.
> I don't see the point in speculating about historical hypotheticals.
Interesting; I think it's helpful to note if some way you're suggesting humans think would have torpedoed or prevented the rise of modern science.
> > can we actually show via the "EE" of "EE&R" that human behavior is 100% determined
> Of course not. One can always choose to base one's actions on the outcome of a quantum measurement.
Do you think that's a meaningful loophole for this conversation? That is, do you think humans on a day-to-day basis make important decisions or otherwise predicate their actions on the outcomes of quantum measurements (in the precise sense you mean here which results in unpredictability)?
> But I think human behavior is largely predictable.
Again, that is 100% compatible with a small Δv model of free will. The question is what the residual, non-predictable part looks like. For systems which cannot act based on predictions of their future states, maybe we get just noise. But what about humans?
I think human behavior is largely predictable. (Let me demonstrate my own oracular prowess: I predict that you will post another comment in this thread rather than let me have the last word here.)
This is a very weak form of "prediction". You aren't claiming, I take it, that you can predict the exact words Luke will post next, or what time he will post them. But a deterministic model in the much simpler domains where we have one, such as astronomy, makes predictions with that level of exactitude. We don't just predict that, say, a spacecraft will fly by Jupiter; we predict exactly how close it will come, how much its trajectory will change, what time (to around an accuracy of a second in a decade or so) we will stop receiving radio signals when the spacecraft goes behind Jupiter, what time we will start receiving radio signals again when it comes out the other side, etc.
I don't think an "oracle" that predicts human behavior to that level of accuracy, in toto, is practically possible, except on a very limited time horizon--roughly the time it takes the human brain to compute a particular action that the person is about to execute. So yes, if you had a brain scanner wired up to Luke as he was typing his next post, you might be able to predict what he would type. But I don't think anyone will have a brain scanner that could predict, hours or days in advance, exactly when he would start typing his next post, or what would be in it.
Luke said...
> If that's the way you mean "demonstrate", then I think it's impossible to ever demonstrate determinism in your sense, since you also appear to be insisting on perfect accuracy (because of how you responded to my statement about approximation).
You are welcome to argue for something below 'perfect' which you think suffices for whatever claims you wish to predicate upon said 'approximate' determinism. There are many situations where we cannot get all the way there but we can get close enough for all intents and purposes. What I'm proposing is the fact that humans seem to be able to consume any predictions of their behavior and then change as a result presents a problem for even a remotely approximate empirical demonstration of deterministic behavior.
> I think that's because no one else is using your definition of "demonstrate" (or "deterministic", for that matter).
I think plenty of people think of the term 'demonstrate' in an empirical sense and not a metaphysical sense. Plenty of scientists know very well how to distinguish between what the data say and what the model says. The very good scientists pay close attention to the gaps between data and model. I am interested in precisely that gap when it comes to determinism of human behavior.
> Yes, and my point was that your "reverse psychology" is not transparent with the predictions.
Agreed. As I said:
> Luke: Sorry, I misunderstood where you were going with your previous comment. If we shift focus to what is empirically demonstrable, I think we can ignore the reverse psychology tangent.
> I haven't read [Bruce Waller's Against Moral Responsibility], but having read the description on the Amazon page for it, I strongly suspect he is using a different definition of "moral responsibility" than you are.
From the preface:
>> The basic claim of this book is that—all the extraordinary and creative efforts of contemporary philosophers notwithstanding—moral responsibility cannot survive in our naturalistic-scientific system. Moral responsibility was a comfortable fit among gods and miracles and mysteries, but the deeper scientific understanding of human behavior and the causes shaping human character leaves no room for moral responsibility. The second claim is that when we look carefully at the moral responsibility system and at what would actually remain when that system is abolished, it is clear that what we really want—natural non miraculous human free will, moral judgments, warm and meaningful personal relationships, creative abilities, and the opportunity to make our own decisions and exercise effective control—can survive and flourish without moral responsibility, and that what is lost—“just deserts,” blame and punishment, righteous retribution, special reward—we are better off without. (vii)
Waller is a naturalist. You seem rather confused about his position and/or mine; perhaps that snippet from the preface will help.
do you think humans on a day-to-day basis make important decisions or otherwise predicate their actions on the outcomes of quantum measurements (in the precise sense you mean here which results in unpredictability)?
There have been proposals along these lines (for example, Hameroff and Penrose's proposal about quantum superpositions in microtubules in the brain). AFAIK none of them so far have panned out--where they have made testable predictions, the predictions have been falsified.
That's not to say that no such model will ever be successful, but I can see at least one plausible reason to be skeptical: thermal noise in the brain should be way too large to allow any meaningful dependence of the brain's activity on quantum uncertainty. In all the cases in which we have experimentally probed quantum uncertainty, the biggest challenge is keeping the quantum system "quiet" enough to allow quantum effects to be significant; that means strict isolation from all other systems. The brain is not at all like that.
You are welcome to argue for something below 'perfect' which you think suffices for whatever claims you wish to predicate upon said 'approximate' determinism.
I don't have any such claims to make; I'm simply trying to understand your position. (See my response to Ron a little bit ago for more info on my position.) You referred to claims by Sean Carroll and Sam Harris, which you don't appear to think are justified. Is that because you think they are approximating too roughly? Or is there some other reason?
perhaps that snippet from the preface will help.
Not really, because it doesn't tell me what he means by "the moral responsibility system". From browsing some reviews of his book online, at least one of his main concerns seems to be that the way we currently assign blame, punishment, etc., isn't actually very good at improving people's behavior. But that concern seems to me to be "orthogonal" to any metaphysical question about determinism.
Since we're giving pointers to books on the subject, I'll add a couple: Dennett's Elbow Room and Freedom Evolves. Also a shorter work, Raymond Smullyan's dialogue "Is God a Taoist".
Luke said...
> > > > can we actually show via the "EE" of "EE&R" that human behavior is 100% determined
> > > Of course not. One can always choose to base one's actions on the outcome of a quantum measurement.
> > do you think humans on a day-to-day basis make important decisions or otherwise predicate their actions on the outcomes of quantum measurements (in the precise sense you mean here which results in unpredictability)?
> There have been proposals along these lines (for example, Hameroff and Penrose's proposal about quantum superpositions in microtubules in the brain). AFAIK none of them so far have panned out--where they have made testable predictions, the predictions have been falsified.
I was expecting a "no" answer. But then Ron's response would have been a mostly irrelevant quibble. He's a smart guy; if he works hard enough he can inject enough quibbles to stuff up and shut down just about any conversation. What I'm hoping is that he'll only pick the important quibbles. And yes, I'm aware that perhaps you think I am doing exactly that when it comes to not having quite enough data to show thorough determinism of human choices. If you would confirm/deny, that would be helpful to me.
> I don't have any such claims to make; I'm simply trying to understand your position.
I am mostly interested in the claims made that go along the lines of "Human action is determined†, therefore ____." My position is that any such claim is either metaphysical, or needs support by sufficient empirical evidence. I am not sure there is sufficient empirical evidence for any interesting fill-in value.
> You referred to claims by Sean Carroll and Sam Harris, which you don't appear to think are justified. Is that because you think they are approximating too roughly?
I think they should be proper scientists, and (i) be very clear on what the data do and do not say; (ii) be very clear on what would empirically falsify their positions. Maybe they have done this and I haven't seen it; I haven't read Harris' book on free will nor Carroll's Big Picture. But I am generally aware of the absolute sloppiness which tends to show up in this domain. It's through conversations like these that I get more motivation to read more of this stuff. You might not believe it, but I'm rather pragmatic at heart.
> Not really, because it doesn't tell me what he means by "the moral responsibility system".
Here's a bit more:
>> As will be argued in subsequent chapters, it does not involve the rejection of all moral evaluations: Joe may do something that is morally wrong, Joe’s immoral behavior may stem from his deeply flawed character, and it is important to recognize and examine those wrongs and flaws, but Joe does not deserve blame or punishment. And it may be useful to blame or punish Joe (though I very much doubt it), but Joe does not justly deserve such blame or punishment. As I use the phrase in this book, “moral responsibility” is the essential (necessary, if not sufficient) condition for justified blame and punishment. Michael McKenna states that “what most everyone is hunting for . . . is the sort of moral responsibility that is desert entailing, the kind that makes blaming and punishing as well as praising and rewarding justified” (2009, 12). What McKenna describes is precisely what I am hunting for as well; the difference is that rather than trying to preserve it and justify it, my goal is to kill it and drive a stake through its heart. (2)
Thanks for the book suggestions.
I am mostly interested in the claims made that go along the lines of "Human action is determined†, therefore ____."
Can you give a specific example of such a claim in something you've read?
I think they should be proper scientists, and (i) be very clear on what the data do and do not say; (ii) be very clear on what would empirically falsify their positions.
Can you give specific examples of things they've written where you think they didn't do this?
Here's a bit more
Hm. Just looking at this quote, I don't see how this position can hang together logically. If it's possible for actions to be morally wrong, doesn't that in itself justify blaming someone for doing them? If not, what does he mean by "morally wrong"?
Since I mentioned Dennett's books, I think this review of Waller by Dennett, and a follow-up exchange (including a response from Waller), are worth reading:
Ron said...
> This is a very weak form of "prediction"
Well, duh. That was actually supposed to be a joke, rather like when the meta-Oracle predicted that the Tortoise would question its powers.
> You aren't claiming, I take it, that you can predict the exact words Luke will post next, or what time he will post them.
Of course not. Give me a little credit for not being a complete idiot.
> We don't just predict that, say, a spacecraft will fly by Jupiter; we predict exactly how close it will come, how much its trajectory will change, what time (to around an accuracy of a second in a decade or so)
That is a *much* simpler problem than predicting human behavior. Even predicting the weather, which is much harder than predicting spacecraft trajectories, is much easier than predicting human behavior. But predicting the weather was once thought to be intractable too and now we can forecast pretty accurately more than a week ahead.
> I don't think an "oracle" that predicts human behavior to that level of accuracy, in toto, is practically possible, except on a very limited time horizon--roughly the time it takes the human brain to compute a particular action that the person is about to execute.
There I disagree with you. I actually think I can make some pretty accurate predictions about Luke's behavior, though they would only be accurate if Luke doesn't learn of them. Remember, oracles are possible but meta-oracles are not. So, for example, I note that Luke has *not* fulfilled my prophecy, but I'm pretty sure he would have if I hadn't made it. But now we're in hypothetical-land.
But I don't actually know Luke all that well. For people that I do know well, like members of my family, I actually can predict some of their actions down to the exact words they are going to say and when they are going to say them. Only in certain circumstances of course. But the rest of the time I can bound their behavior with pretty high accuracy. And I can do all that without even having any advanced brain-scanning technology, or even reading their email.
Luke said...
> > I am mostly interested in the claims made that go along the lines of "Human action is determined†, therefore ____."
> Can you give a specific example of such a claim in something you've read?
From Jerry Coyne in response to Sean Carroll:
>> … but I do insist that we always remember that we could not have done otherwise, and I insist that because its ramifications for human behavior are profound, we must always keep fundamental determinism in mind.
>> … We recognize that, at bottom, nobody could have done otherwise. If they are accused of something that society deems to be a crime, you find out if they really did commit that crime. If they’re found guilty, then a group of experts—scientists, psychologists, sociologists criminologists, etc.—determine what the “punishment” should be based on the person’s history (a brain tumor would mandate an operation, for instance), malleability to persuasion, likelihood of recidivism, danger to society, and deterrent effects. None of that needs the assumption that someone is a “freely acting agent.” (Sean Carroll on free will)
A key consequence to "we could not have done otherwise" is that there can be no 'dual rationality':
>> Finally, consider the libertarian notion of dual rationality, a requirement whose importance to the libertarian I did not appreciate until I read Robert Kane's Free Will and Values. As with dual control, the libertarian needs to claim that when agents make free choices, it would have been rational (reasonable, sensible) for them to have made a contradictory choice (e.g. chosen not A rather than A) under precisely the conditions that actually obtain. Otherwise, categorical freedom simply gives us the freedom to choose irrationally had we chosen otherwise, a less-than-entirely desirable state. Kane (1985) spends a great deal of effort in trying to show how libertarian choices can be dually rational, and I examine his efforts in Chapter 8. (The Non-Reality of Free Will, 16)
What that means is that there is no such thing as "acting against your better knowledge" (see also akrasia). I'm quite happy to acknowledge that the Roman Catholic Church took guilt too far (see Jean Delumeau's Sin and Fear), but Coyne would abolish or at least transform it radically. It becomes scientifically mandatory to pass the buck!
Luke said...
> > I think they should be proper scientists, and (i) be very clear on what the data do and do not say; (ii) be very clear on what would empirically falsify their positions.
> Can you give specific examples of things they've written where you think they didn't do this?
>> There are people who do believe in free will in this sense; that we need to invoke a notion of free will as an essential ingredient in reality, over and above the conventional laws of nature. …
>>
>> This version of free will, as anyone who reads the blog will recognize, I don’t buy at all. Within the regime of everyday life, the underlying laws of physics are completely understood. There’s a lot we don’t understand about consciousness, but none of the problems we face rise to the level that we should be tempted to distrust our basic understanding of how the atoms and forces inside our brains work. Note that it’s not really a matter of “determinism”; it’s simply a question of whether there are impersonal laws of nature at all. The fact that quantum mechanics introduces a stochastic component into physical predictions doesn’t open the door for true libertarian free will. (Free Will Is as Real as Baseball)
N.B. Sean Carroll clearly means monistic determinism. Also, his hyperlink text is a bit misleading; his linked article is titled Seriously, The Laws Underlying The Physics of Everyday Life Really Are Completely Understood; you can also see his update with a nice visualization.
Interacting with that claim of Carroll's may be a rather ambitious project; I'm up for it but I find that few of my interlocutors have that kind of attention span (and I'm sure I'm really obnoxious to deal with at least some of the time). At base though, Carroll has to be saying that if there is anything like the small Δv kind of free will going on, then we would have detected this equation being violated. I think it is worth seeing how many scientists think it is legitimate to thusly extrapolate from the most fundamental (and in a sense, abstract) scientific model we humans have of reality, to the least abstract and least well-explained-by-science aspect of [our experience of] reality. And yes, on physicalism, consciousness is as much 'reality' as protons, neutrons, and electrons.
Sean Carroll's reductionism is one approach taken to scientifically conclude there is only monistic determinism; another is to work from various experiments in the human sciences, neuroscience, and cognitive science. Alfred R. Mele critiques what he sees as wild extrapolation from that evidence in Free: Why Science Hasn't Disproved Free Will; I'd be happy to read opposing views in detail with a dialogue partner.
Luke said...
> Hm. Just looking at this quote, I don't see how this position can hang together logically. If it's possible for actions to be morally wrong, doesn't that in itself justify blaming someone for doing them? If not, what does he mean by "morally wrong"?
You have to keep track of a semantic shift in a whole range of words, including: 'cause', 'morally responsible', 'moral', 'choose'. I'll key off of one of the seminal works in 20th century moral philosophy to illustrate:
>> For one way of framing my contention that morality is not what it once was is just to say that to a large degree people now think, talk, and act as if emotivism were true, no matter what their avowed theoretical standpoint might be.
>> What is the key to the social content of emotivism? It is the fact that emotivism entails the obliteration of any genuine distinction between manipulative and non-manipulative social relations. Consider the contrast between, for example. Kantian ethics and emotivism on this point. For Kant—and a parallel point could be made about many earlier moral philosophers—the difference between a human relationship uninformed by morality and one so informed is precisely the difference between one in which each person treats the other primarily as a means to his or her ends and one in which each treats the other as an end. To treat someone else as an end is to offer them what I take to be good reasons for acting in one way rather than another, but to leave it to them to evaluate those reasons. It is to be unwilling to influence another except by reasons which that other he or she judges to be good. It is to appeal to impersonal criteria of the validity of which each rational agent must be his or her own judge. By contrast, to treat someone else as a means is to seek to make him or her an instrument of my purposes by adducing whatever influences or considerations will in fact be effective on this or that occasion. The generalizations of the sociology and psychology of persuasion are what I shall need to guide me, not the standards of a normative rationality. (After Virtue, 22–23)
The reigning political philosophy of Western Civilization is political liberalism: don't move my cheese. Don't touch me unless I've touched someone else. The individual is sovereign; to mess with the individual is the unforgivable sin. It is wrong to manipulate individuals. (Isn't that what religion has done for millennia? Didn't we strangle the last king with the entrails of the last priest?) The principles of the first democratic (ok, representative republic) nation were driven into the bedrock of reality: "all men are created equal". My focus is not on God, but the ontological language. What Alasdair MacIntyre is saying—and I think he's precisely right—is that one cannot detect manipulation at the ontological level as defined by naturalism. It just doesn't exist. Billiard balls don't manipulate each other. Nothing has freedom which can be violated—not at any emergent level.
The only kind of manipulation left is a subjective sense thereof. We cannot rely on society to determine what is manipulation, because since the beginning of time it has shrouded injustice in legitimation which it managed to get people to take for granted at a subconscious level. But then, how do I know I am now in any way free[er] from subconscious manipulation? There is no court of appeal. There is only society and what it happens to like and dislike. That's a very different notion of 'morality' than I think even the Enlightenment philosophes held. It's a naturalistic notion. I am deducing this from what naturalism permits in the realm of causation, not from moral philosophy. (Strictly speaking, this perhaps applies only to physicalism—but I haven't seen exceptions which naturalism may permit actually be exercised by more than about one person.)
That was actually supposed to be a joke, rather like when the meta-Oracle predicted that the Tortoise would question its powers.
Ah. My humor detector must have been malfunctioning. Sorry about that.
I note that Luke has *not* fulfilled my prophecy
I thought he did; he posted again in this comment thread after you predicted that he would post again.
For people that I do know well, like members of my family, I actually can predict some of their actions down to the exact words they are going to say and when they are going to say them. Only in certain circumstances of course. But the rest of the time I can bound their behavior with pretty high accuracy. And I can do all that without even having any advanced brain-scanning technology, or even reading their email.
Bertrand Russell, IIRC, made a similar observation as part of an argument that, whatever philosophical claims people make about free will, nobody really believes in practice that humans have it. We all know we can predict each other's behavior the way you describe.
However, then we get into the question of whether free will really requires strong unpredictability. For example, suppose I predict that if you see a child about to be hit by a car, you will pull it out of the way. Lo and behold, the next time you see a child about to be hit by a car, you do in fact pull it out of the way. Does that mean you didn't freely choose to do that? Or does it just mean that "free choice" doesn't have to mean you do something that nobody would ever predict you would do?
Luke said...
> Bertrand Russell, IIRC, made a similar observation as part of an argument that, whatever philosophical claims people make about free will, nobody really believes in practice that humans have it. We all know we can predict each other's behavior the way you describe.
This reminds me of Dr. Gregory House: "People don't change." But this is hilariously (tragically?) false; what actually is the case is that (i) change is hard; (ii) change can be nigh impossible if those around you help prevent it. The easiest way to thwart change in someone else is to assume that [s]he will always be that way, and discount or even react against any movements toward positive change. Humans seem to do this automatically—no training is necessary.
All you need to do is view free will as akin to the very limited thruster fuel a spacecraft has once it has reached orbit: only very precisely timed and oriented burns will accomplish anything useful. But if you do it right, you can approach infinitesimal thrusts which let you get anywhere in the solar system: see the Interplanetary Transport Network and its use of unstable Lagrangian points. I know one of the people who invented/discovered the ITN. I call this "a small Δv model of free will".
In reality, wise humans have long known how powerfully society and family shape a person, how difficult it is to deviate from well-worn paths. We nerds tend to be oblivious to that for various reasons. The very idea of a stable society—and humans really love to have stability and predictability—implies that rocking the boat will be very hard. This doesn't mean there is zero free will. It means you have to be incredibly strategic if you want to change society. Wise people have known this for ages.
What we Moderns have really done is blinded ourselves to the self:
>> Much contemporary moral philosophy, particularly but not only in the English-speaking world, has given such a narrow focus to morality that some of the crucial connections I want to draw here are incomprehensible in its terms. This moral philosophy has tended to focus on what it is right to do rather than on what it is good to be, on defining the content of obligation rather than the nature of the good life; and it has no conceptual place left for a notion of the good as the object of our love or allegiance or, as Iris Murdoch portrayed it in her work, as the privileged focus of attention or will.[1] This philosophy has accredited a cramped and truncated view of morality in a narrow sense as well as of the whole range of issues involved in the attempt to live the best possible life and this not only among professional philosophers, but with a wider public. (Sources of the Self, 3)
At 12,000 'citations', Charles Taylor's book is not a lightweight. He isn't just negative either; in The Ethics of Authenticity, he argues that there is something tremendously good in the Modern push for authenticity, but as usually construed it is shallow and distorted. Why? Because we have gouged out our eyes for fear that (i) we might see something icky; (ii) --society-- __religion__ might impose its values on us. However, covering one's eyes does not make reality go away. It does greatly harm our ability to change reality—including ourselves. At least, change in good directions.
All you need to do is view free will as akin to the very limited thruster fuel a spacecraft has once it has reached orbit
I actually have no problem with this view, since I agree with you that, while change is hard, it is not impossible, and it has to proceed by small steps which, if properly chosen, can lead to a large long-term change.
However, I would also point out that this view is perfectly consistent with "monistic determinism" (which I would call "physicalism"). Physically, whatever the source of the "limited thruster fuel" we have, it has to ultimately come from one of the fundamental interactions we know. Otherwise we have an incoherent model. In fact, it's overwhelmingly probable that the interaction is electromagnetic, since that's the only one that has appreciable strength in the domain of operation of our brains and bodies. (Chemical reactions are just a form of electromagnetic interaction.) Gravity is too weak and the strong and weak interactions are too short range. And, as Carroll points out, if there were any other interation that had appreciable strength in this domain, we would already have seen it in experiments.
Carroll has to be saying that if there is anything like the small Δv kind of free will going on, then we would have detected this equation being violated.
That's not quite what he's saying. What he's saying is, as I said in my comment just now, that whatever the ultimate source of the "small Δv" is, it has to be one of the fundamental interactions we already know, because we've thoroughly tested the domain in question in experiments to find all of the interactions that have appreciable strength. (And, as I said, it's overwhelmingly probable that the ultimate interaction is electromagnetic, because the others simply don't have appreciable strength in the domain in which our brains and bodies operate.)
Alfred R. Mele critiques what he sees as wild extrapolation from that evidence in Free: Why Science Hasn't Disproved Free Will
I haven't read this book either--you just added another item to my reading list :-)--but from the summary on Amazon, I suspect that his critique is not of physicalism ("monistic determinism") itself, but of what I would call "simplistic physicalism"--the idea that, since everything we do ultimately supervenes on the known fundamental interactions of physics, we must be simple machines, easily predictable and manipulable once the right tools (such as brain scanners) are available, and with no scope for "conscious decision" or "free will" in any sense, not even the compatibilist sense. That idea seems to me to be obviously false, but I think many researchers who have run these types of experiments (such as the brain scanning ones Ron referred to) have indeed made such claims.
But the claim Carroll is making is not that kind of claim. He's not saying we have to be simple machines just because we are physical beings. Each of us is made of roughly 10^25 atoms, arranged in a fantastically complex way, with many, many levels of organization between us and the fundamental interactions. There is no reason to expect the behavior of such a thing to be simple, or even to be moderately complex--it could be fiendishly complex, orders of magnitude more complex than any other system we study, so complex that it is impossible to capture all of its behavior in any tractable model. (In this sense I am more pessimistic than Ron is about the possibility of an "oracle". But ultimately that's an empirical question.)
You have to keep track of a semantic shift in a whole range of words, including: 'cause', 'morally responsible', 'moral', 'choose'.
First I have to understand what the semantic shift is--what does Waller mean by those terms, if it isn't the standard meaning that was given to them for centuries of philosophical and ethical discussion? I can't "keep track" of a shift if I don't know what it is. But as I said, I haven't read the book, so it's possible he gives more detail there.
Billiard balls don't manipulate each other. Nothing has freedom which can be violated—not at any emergent level.
The first sentence is true, but the second is false. We are not billiard balls. We are not even close to billiard balls, We are many, many, many orders of magnitude more complex than billiard balls. The conflation of us with billiard balls, even in a "sort of" sense, is an example of the "simplistic physicalism" I described in my previous comment. As a physicist (was it Anderson?) once said: "More is different." Pile up enough complexity, enough levels of organization, on top of the fundamental interactions, and you get new things that you could never predict just from knowing the fundamental interactions. They supervene on the fundamental interactions, because they are built from them, but that doesn't mean they can't be more complex than the fundamental interactions--much more complex. And more complexity means different.
Equating physicalism with simplistic physicalism is like claiming that, since atoms can't play chess, people could not play chess either if their behavior was entirely explainable in terms of atoms. That kind of argument seems obviously absurd to me (and to scientists like Carroll), but it seems to be at the heart of a lot of arguments in the free will debate.
That's one of the reasons predicting the weather is possible: the prediction doesn't change the outcome. That's why I believe that an oracle for human decision-making is possible, but not a meta-oracle.
There is another difference between weather prediction and human decision prediction, though. The initial conditions you need to sample for weather prediction are reasonably bounded. The weather doesn't care what the stock market is doing, or whether your mother is healthy or ill, or what Trump tweeted today, or what your friend just posted on Facebook, or how you are planning for retirement and how well it's going, or...
In other words, humans are extraordinarily more sensitive to information than the weather is--or, to put it in physicalist terms, the range of microphysical initial conditions that you would have to accurately sample to predict human behavior on any time scale longer than a few seconds (roughly the time it takes your brain to decide what to do right now) is enormously larger than it is for the weather. And many of those conditions are not predictable in advance either: basically, to predict just one human's choices a day ahead, let's say, you would have to have a model that could predict the behavior of all humans that far ahead, since so much of the information we act on to make our choices comes from other humans.
This is a key reason why I'm more pessimistic than you are about the possibility of even an ordinary oracle for human decision-making.
Ron said...
> > I note that Luke has *not* fulfilled my prophecy
> I thought he did; he posted again in this comment thread after you predicted that he would post again.
Yes, but he was responding to you, not to me, so I don't think that counts. :)
> humans are extraordinarily more sensitive to information than the weather is
That's true, but the extent to which humans are sensitive to information is far from clear.
the extent to which humans are sensitive to information is far from clear.
That article doesn't refute the point I was making. I was saying that information, including information that would be extremely hard to sample microphysically with enough accuracy for prediction beyond a time horizon of a few seconds, affects what humans do. The article is saying that the way information affects what humans do often doesn't appear to meet standards of rationality. That might well be true, but "affecting what humans do in a way that seems irrational" is not the same as "not affecting what humans do".
Ron said...
> The article is saying that the way information affects what humans do often doesn't appear to meet standards of rationality.
It says more than that: it says that evidence does not change people's minds. That makes their behavior easier to predict because it doesn't matter what information they obtain, their behavior will not change.
Luke said...
> > All you need to do is view free will as akin to the very limited thruster fuel a spacecraft has once it has reached orbit
> I actually have no problem with this view, since I agree with you that, while change is hard, it is not impossible, and it has to proceed by small steps which, if properly chosen, can lead to a large long-term change.
Sure, but I think you and I mean rather different things with that term "chosen". I don't need to assert libertarian free will; I can just question monistic determinism / physicalism.
> However, I would also point out that this view is perfectly consistent with "monistic determinism" (which I would call "physicalism").
Well, physicalism is going to have to find ways of assimilating lots of different evidence so that it is plausible—so that doesn't surprise me. What I want to know is how physicalism differs from alternatives in meaningful ways. Take F = GmM/r^2, for example. That entails that F = GmM/r^2.0001 never happens. I'm really just riffing on Popper, here: what is the subtlest deviation which would falsify physicalism? I've heard stuff like "the stars magically rearranging to spell 'Jesus loves you!'"; that's not subtle, not helpful, and I wouldn't even be surprised if physicalism could still explain that, e.g. via super-powerful aliens who wanted to bring Ron's Loki to life.
> In fact, it's overwhelmingly probable that the interaction is electromagnetic, since that's the only one that has appreciable strength in the domain of operation of our brains and bodies.
That's assuming that aspects of our mind don't operate near the edge of chaos. If there are near-chaotic aspects of thinking then perhaps the subtlest of pushes could send the thinking one way vs. another. Maybe even infinitesimal pushes, if brain states can pass through unstable Lagrangian points. BTW, the philosophy of mind concept of multiple realizability may be helpful, here.
> And, as Carroll points out, if there were any other interation that had appreciable strength in this domain, we would already have seen it in experiments.
Is this published in any peer-reviewed journals that you know of? I would absolutely love to see the best minds respond to that claim; it seems rather dubious to me. One candidate would be physics Nobel laureate Robert Laughlin, based on his A Different Universe: Reinventing Physics from the Bottom Down.
Luke said...
> Ron[1/27/2018 7:22 PM]: Yes, but he was responding to you, not to me, so I don't think that counts. :)
You seem to have missed my response to you:
> Ron[1/26/2018 3:43 PM]: (Let me demonstrate my own oracular prowess: I predict that you will post another comment in this thread rather than let me have the last word here.)
I didn't respond to the exact parenthetical, but I did respond to your comment. And I was saddened that you didn't reply, but I know you're busy these days. In this case, perhaps you just missed it?
Luke said...
> > Carroll has to be saying that if there is anything like the small Δv kind of free will going on, then we would have detected this equation being violated.
> That's not quite what he's saying. What he's saying is, as I said in my comment just now, that whatever the ultimate source of the "small Δv" is, it has to be one of the fundamental interactions we already know, because we've thoroughly tested the domain in question in experiments to find all of the interactions that have appreciable strength. (And, as I said, it's overwhelmingly probable that the ultimate interaction is electromagnetic, because the others simply don't have appreciable strength in the domain in which our brains and bodies operate.)
I'm afraid you haven't understood the point of my "small Δv model of free will". My point is that the forces the spacecraft can exert are absolutely and utterly dwarfed by the various gravity wells in the solar system. And yet, even if the forces on the spacecraft are infinitely strong, as long as it passes through unstable Lagrangian points in the right manner, it can apply an infinitesimal force and change trajectory! Therefore, all this talk of "we would have detected any forces exerted by the spacecraft" seems dubious. Especially if some aspect of the mind operates near the edge of chaos.
> … I suspect that [Alfred Mele's] critique is not of physicalism ("monistic determinism") itself, but of what I would call "simplistic physicalism" …
Possibly. But then I would ask what non-simplistic physicalism says cannot happen—which I did in a recent comment. (And yes, I can shift from absolutes of "cannot happen" to probabilities, like Popper does in Logic of Scientific Discovery.)
> Each of us is made of roughly 10^25 atoms, arranged in a fantastically complex way, with many, many levels of organization between us and the fundamental interactions.
Sure, and when we model such complex systems, we cannot use Carroll's Big Equation™. Instead we use approximations. But then the thing being tested is the approximation, not the Big Equation™. The difference is absolutely tremendous if we're trying to infer ontology from empirical evidence. Unless, that is, reductionism is presupposed at the metaphysical level. This computational problem—which may be more than merely computational—also seems to make Carroll's Seriously, The Laws Underlying The Physics of Everyday Life Really Are Completely Understood (update with nice visualization) rather irrelevant to a lot of scientific inquiry.
Here's another way of exploring the issue. How does Carroll's reductionistic physicalism (I'm pretty sure he adheres to monistic determinism) tell us to (i) do science differently; (ii) think about day-to-day life differently? As far as I can tell—and I haven't really done my homework, like read his The Big Picture—there isn't really an answer to (i) and the answers to (ii) have this weird property of not actually indicating subtle falsifiability like my F = GmM/r^2.0001 example. This just makes me super suspicious. But hey, that could be merely due to my ignorance. That's a major reason I participate in conversations like this!
Ron said...
> You seem to have missed my response to you:
Yes, sorry, I did miss it. (So I guess my oracular reputation is intact! ;-)
> Do … we know any hypotheticals?
Not with 100% certainty, no. (In fact, we do not and cannot know *anything* with 100% certainty. That, I believe, is actually an essential part of the human condition, and one of the reasons that we cannot be created in God's image. But that's a whole 'nuther kettle o' worms.)
> Almost? Or completely?
Almost. There's always freedom to choose which hypothesis to advance or test next.
> A mere "almost" is 100% consistent with a small Δv model of free will;
Sure, but that still leaves open the question of whether that small Δv is the result of something sufficiently different and interesting, or whether it's just the result of some mundane physical phenomenon that we just happen not to fully understand yet. The fact that you already have to retreat to a small Δv model to save the whole concept of free will indicates to me that you are defending a "free will of the gaps".
> Interesting; I think it's helpful to note if some way you're suggesting humans think would have torpedoed or prevented the rise of modern science.
Why? Helpful to what end?
> > > can we actually show via the "EE" of "EE&R" that human behavior is 100% determined
> > Of course not. One can always choose to base one's actions on the outcome of a quantum measurement.
> Do you think that's a meaningful loophole for this conversation?
It's a meaningful answer -- indeed it is the only correct answer -- to the question you posed. Perhaps you meant to ask a different question?
> do you think humans on a day-to-day basis make important decisions or otherwise predicate their actions on the outcomes of quantum measurements
No. But I do believe that humans are chaotic (in the mathematical sense) and so quantum randomness might have some "butterfly" effects along the margins.
> The question is what the residual, non-predictable part looks like.
Indeed, and that is an open question. But I'm very confident that it looks a lot less like "free will" than most people think.
But *if* an oracle is possible (and hence by extension if an omniscient deity exists, because such a deity subsumes the powers of an oracle) then human behavior is manifestly predictable, and hence free will cannot exist.
Luke said...
> First I have to understand what the semantic shift is--what does Waller mean by those terms, if it isn't the standard meaning that was given to them for centuries of philosophical and ethical discussion? I can't "keep track" of a shift if I don't know what it is. But as I said, I haven't read the book, so it's possible he gives more detail there.
You were trying to grok the book without reading it; I'm suggesting that for this particular topic, that may not be possible. I'm happy to read through it with you; we could dialogue about it on a new blog entry by Ron or over email. (I have yet to create my own blog software which lets you quote blocks of text and then look at a post/comment to see which bits were quoted. Maybe I will try and do that if you want to work through a book with me.)
One thing you can do on the semantic shift thing is read WP: After Virtue § Summary. MacIntyre claims that how we understand morality and ethics now is very, very different from how we used to. Crucially, he thinks we didn't consciously track this change and that we're confused in how we talk about morality and ethics as a result. AV is a seminal work on moral philosophy, with 23,000 'citations'. My suspicion is that thinking on free will shares some of the same … properties of confused thinking as MacIntyre claims hold of moral and ethical thinking. Given the strong connection between free will and moral responsibility, this should not be surprising.
> > Billiard balls don't manipulate each other. Nothing has freedom which can be violated—not at any emergent level.
> The first sentence is true, but the second is false. We are not billiard balls.
How do we have freedom which can be violated? Recall my line "The only kind of manipulation left is a subjective sense thereof."—humans can still say "I feel ___", but there is no objective reference-point. Incidentally, this might help explain the identity politics and mob behavior of modernity (aided greatly by social media): it is more powerful to say "We feel ___" when there is no objective grounding.
> As a physicist (was it Anderson?) once said: "More is different."
Yep; Robert Laughlin says Anderson's 1972 article plus Ilya Prigogine's The End of Certainty are required reading for any students who want to work with him. But again I must ask: if "more is different", what restraints does Carroll's reductionism put on the amount of "different" which can happen?
> And more complexity means different.
Not necessarily. More Turing machines can't solve the Halting problem or circumvent Rice's theorem. It doesn't matter how intricately you wire them up or how much you juice them. Mathematical systems provide hard limits on what is possible. If ultimate reality is indeed perfectly described by some finite mathematical system, then there is plenty of subtle "different" which will never happen.
> Equating physicalism with simplistic physicalism is like claiming that, since atoms can't play chess, people could not play chess either if their behavior was entirely explainable in terms of atoms. That kind of argument seems obviously absurd to me (and to scientists like Carroll), but it seems to be at the heart of a lot of arguments in the free will debate.
Sure. But I'm not going to let 'emergence' be a squishy explain-everything term, either. For a refreshing exception to that pattern, see Massimo Pigliucci's Essays on emergence, part I.
Luke said...
> (So I guess my oracular reputation is intact! ;-)
Yep. I look forward to it surpassing the following obstacle:
> This theory explains most of the observed data, but not all of it. In particular, Luke is still an unexplained anomaly, and that keeps me a little humble. (Why I believe in the Michelson-Morley experiment)
I think I can trust you to tell me your prediction/model if you come up with one. :-p Hopefully I don't play the obnoxious quibbling/reverse psychology game in response. I'll let others call me to account on that, as I don't particularly trust my own self-policing.
> > Do … we know any hypotheticals?
> Not with 100% certainty, no. (In fact, we do not and cannot know *anything* with 100% certainty. That, I believe, is actually an essential part of the human condition, and one of the reasons that we cannot be created in God's image. But that's a whole 'nuther kettle o' worms.)
Why should you or I care about 100% certainty? 100% certainty + 100% clarity ⇒ permanently finite system per Gödel. I'd rather not be locked into an infinitesimal sliver of reality, thank you very much! That doesn't seem very imago Dei.
> > Almost? Or completely?
> Almost. There's always freedom to choose which hypothesis to advance or test next.
Isn't that … ultra-important? I don't understand the function of your "almost" in this conversation. Again, see the Noam Chomsky bit I excerpted.
> Sure, but that still leaves open the question of whether that small Δv is the result of something sufficiently different and interesting, or whether it's just the result of some mundane physical phenomenon that we just happen not to fully understand yet.
Agreed.
> The fact that you already have to retreat to a small Δv model to save the whole concept of free will indicates to me that you are defending a "free will of the gaps".
Not if anything larger than a small Δv would make consciousness impossible. But sure, let's try and close the gap and see if logic fails to explode in our faces. :-D
> Why? Helpful to what end?
Adopting beliefs which would have prevented the rise of modern science seems problematic to me; if you're fine with it, I won't pursue the matter.
> It's a meaningful answer -- indeed it is the only correct answer -- to the question you posed. Perhaps you meant to ask a different question?
Actually, I meant you to answer the question in context; if in fact the continued pursuit of science doesn't depend on humans basing decisions on the results of [specific!] quantum measurements and the well-functioning of society doesn't depend …, then your quibble seems (seemed? see next chunk) to be irrelevant to the overall purpose of this conversation. Continuing:
> But I do believe that humans are chaotic (in the mathematical sense) and so quantum randomness might have some "butterfly" effects along the margins.
Interesting. And could we plausibly discover actual structure in said quantum randomness, via the effects it has in chaotic human behavior/thinking?
> Indeed, and that is an open question. But I'm very confident that it looks a lot less like "free will" than most people think.
How many people think according to a small Δv model of free will? (Hint: I bet plenty of psychologists and sociologists do. But people in generally like their delusions, including voluntaristic ones. Exercise for the reader: which people in society would like citizens to be deluded about how to actually change reality?)
Luke said...
> Peter: humans are extraordinarily more sensitive to information than the weather is
> Ron: That's true, but the extent to which humans are sensitive to information is far from clear.
Wow, that article starts off with an experiment where the participants are repeatedly lied to and then it "discovers" that people don't rationally respond to "the facts"? I wonder how much of the "humans don't actually respect facts" shtick is predicated upon an assumption that (i) humans are generally good; (ii) authorities are generally trustworthy. We can put a tribalistic gloss on (i) and (ii) if need be. But seriously: without a sufficiently good understanding of trust—the best translation in our culture of the words pistis and pisteuō, BTW—all such studies are going to be incredibly hamstrung.
There was an era where American largely trusted the authorities, including scientists. This had good effects and bad effects. A bad effect—an absolutely terrible effect—was uncovered by the Milgram experiment. For a 2014 update, see Nothing by Mere Authority: Evidence that in an Experimental Analogue of the Milgram Paradigm Participants are Motivated not by Orders but by Appeals to Science. This may conflate "science" and "making things better", but humans have done that for centuries now. But if we deconvolve them and say that what humans really want to do is "make things better", might we find that they respond rather differently to facts which promise to help them better do that? In other words, once we switch from a value-free hygienic presentation of facts to a value-laden, progress-oriented presentation of the facts, might things change?
It always amuses me when I'm told "you should respect the results of science" by someone who thinks [s]he is being entirely scientific in pushing that 'ought' on me. I get that maybe [s]he thinks [s]he is merely issuing a Kantian hypothetical imperative which my desires will clearly make binding, but let's investigate that. How many Americans were told that the march of science and technology would improve their livelihoods? How many Americans have had stagnant wages in the last 40 years? Oh wait, maybe they're suspicious of the powers that be because the powers that be lied to them. (Improvements in healthcare, while laudable, don't suffice—people want to feel valuable, not just healthy.) Just like the experiment recounted in that New Yorker article.
I know there's more to the article, but I want to stop at this point and ask whether the whole way that we're investigating this issue might be radically messed up. What if we researched correcting beliefs of people which are getting in the way of where they desperately want to go? Might we find that in those situations, the facts *can* change our minds?
it says that evidence does not change people's minds. That makes their behavior easier to predict because it doesn't matter what information they obtain, their behavior will not change.
Your second sentence does not follow from your first. Sure, the people's "minds" did not change based on evidence, in the sense of beliefs; but their behavior certainly did change, because they responded to questions they were asked, and as the questions changed, their responses changed too. To see what "behavior not changing" really looks like, you would have needed to do the experiment with a rock. Or a tree, or a clam. When I say people respond to information, I'm not making any grandiose claim about their rationality or their openness to evidence; I'm making what should be a very humdrum claim about how incoming information affects them in ways that it doesn't affect other things, which makes their detailed actions harder to predict.
I think you and I mean rather different things with that term "chosen". I don't need to assert libertarian free will; I can just question monistic determinism / physicalism.
What other alternative is there? "Libertarian free will" just means "free will doesn't have to follow physical laws". Whether or not the laws are deterministic is really a red herring; the point is that the laws are supposed to describe a causally closed system. If the laws are correct, then the system is indeed causally closed, and you can't add on any other causal factors, whether you call them "free will" or anything else.
what is the subtlest deviation which would falsify physicalism?
It depends on what alternative you are proposing and how close its predictions are to those of physicalism in the domain being tested. If your alternative is just "the laws we currently know of aren't exactly correct", that's not a test of physicalism; it's just a test of our current knowledge of the laws, which is admitted to be incomplete.
Also, I think you misunderstand how testing of theories work. When we test any law, we don't get exact answers; we get a range. For example, tests of Newton's law of gravity don't give you an exact exponent; they give a range, such as 1.999998 to 2.000001 (note: I don't know the actual range experimental tests give for this law, but I would bet it's pinned down at least as accurately as the numbers I just gave). As long as the range includes the value that theory predicts--in this case, 2--the law is consistent with the evidence. But if the value that theory predicts is outside the range, the law is falsified.
If you want to see the current state of tests for our best current theories, try these links:
If there are near-chaotic aspects of thinking then perhaps the subtlest of pushes could send the thinking one way vs. another. Maybe even infinitesimal pushes, if brain states can pass through unstable Lagrangian points.
Yes, this is in principle possible, but I don't see how it would be controllable in the brain the way a spacecraft's trajectory is controllable, because of the thermal noise issue I brought up earlier. There is no analogue of thermal noise in spacecraft trajectories. That's what allows the spacecraft's engine burn to be controlled precisely enough to produce the desired orbital change. The analogue of thermal noise for a spacecraft would be random perturbations to the orbit with energies comparable to the orbital energy. With such things present you couldn't even get the spacecraft to predictably hit an unstable Lagrange point in the first place, much less precisely control how an engine burn there would affect its orbit.
Is this published in any peer-reviewed journals that you know of?
I believe Carroll gives journal references in one of the articles you linked to. He certainly names various experimenters; Googling on their names should find the papers even if Carroll doesn't link to them explicitly. The short answer is yes, there have been many experiments run to test for the presence of forces other than those we already know; it's not a fringe part of physics or something out of the way.
when we model such complex systems, we cannot use Carroll's Big Equation™. Instead we use approximations. But then the thing being tested is the approximation, not the Big Equation
That's true as far as what is being directly tested, yes. So if you can find a theory with a different Big Equation that gives rise to the same approximation, then tests in the domain where you use the approximation cannot distinguish between those two theories. You have to find a test in a domain where the two Big Equations give rise to different predictions in order to distinguish between them.
But you don't have a different Big Equation to propose. Even if it's true in principle that there might be one, other than Carroll's Big Equation, that would make the same predictions in all of the domains we have tested, that's useless unless you can find it. Just saying "well, there might be one, so you haven't proven that the Big Equation must be right" is pointless. We have to get along with the best theory we have.
The difference is absolutely tremendous if we're trying to infer ontology from empirical evidence.
I don't think Carroll is trying to "infer ontology". I think he's making a prediction: that no matter how many future experiments we do, we will never do one that falsifies (in the sense I described above) our best current theories in the domain in which they have been tested. Since that domain includes the domain in which our bodies and brains operate, that amounts to saying that we will never observe anything happening in our bodies and brains that falsifies our best current theories. That's a prediction about observable facts, not "ontology".
How does Carroll's reductionistic physicalism (I'm pretty sure he adheres to monistic determinism) tell us to (i) do science differently; (ii) think about day-to-day life differently?
Differently from what?
You were trying to grok the book without reading it; I'm suggesting that for this particular topic, that may not be possible.
Yes, that's a fair point, and I now have the Kindle Edition and am working my way through it.
MacIntyre claims that how we understand morality and ethics now is very, very different from how we used to. Crucially, he thinks we didn't consciously track this change and that we're confused in how we talk about morality and ethics as a result.
I have read most of After Virtue, and I agree with MacIntyre as regards this particular statement. (Which is not to say I agree with everything he says in the book.)
However, I would not expect this excuse to apply to a philosopher like Waller writing a book specifically about the topic of morality and ethics, particularly since he spends considerable time (at least in the part of the book I've read so far) specifying exactly what he means by "moral responsibility" and how it differs from what other philosophers mean by "moral responsbility".
One of my main reactions to Waller's book so far is that he needs to go back and do the same work he does with "moral responsibility" with other terms that he blithely uses, such as "morally right/wrong" or "fair/unfair", because he appears to be using them in the same absolute sense that he uses "moral responsibility", but if naturalism is true, which he appears to think it is, then there is no absolute moral rightness/wrongness or fairness/unfairness any more than there is absolute moral responsibility. On the other hand, if he has some way of justifying the terms "morally right/wrong" and "fair/unfair" based on naturalism being true, he should explain it in detail, and then explain why the same strategy he uses for those justifications would not also work for the term "moral responsibility".
My suspicion is that thinking on free will shares some of the same … properties of confused thinking as MacIntyre claims hold of moral and ethical thinking.
I share your suspicion. In fact, this is a point Dennett has made repeatedly in his writings about free will, though he is coming at it from a different direction, so to speak, than MacIntyre.
How do we have freedom which can be violated?
If you mean "freedom" in the absolute sense in which Waller means "moral responsibility", i.e., in the libertarian sense of "free will can violate the laws of physics", I don't think we do. But "not violating the laws of physics" still allows for lots of behaviors that are many orders of magnitude more complex than the behavior of billiard balls. Using billiard balls as the paradigmatic example of "following the laws of physics" invites the confusion between physicalism and simplistic physicalism that I talked about before: when people say they don't see how we can have free will if we can't violate the laws of physics, what is really doing the work behind the scenes is the simplicity of the behavior of billiard balls, not a true understanding of what is possible within the laws of physics.
if "more is different", what restraints does Carroll's reductionism put on the amount of "different" which can happen?
If physicalism is true, then human beings are physical systems, so anything human beings can do can be done by physical systems, operating within the laws of physics.
Mathematical systems provide hard limits on what is possible.
For example, here is an argument for why computers cannot achieve checkmate in chess:
(1) There is no feasible algorithm for achieving checkmate in chess.
(3) Therefore, computers cannot achieve checkmate in chess.
Both premises are true, but the conclusion is false. What gives?
The answer is that premise (2) did not say "computers can only play chess by using a feasible algorithm for achieving checkmate", which is what would properly ground the conclusion (3) when combined with premise (1). Computers don't play chess by using an algorithm for checkmate; they play chess by using an algorithm for heuristically evaluating possible legal moves. (There is a possible brute force algorithm for checkmate, but it is not feasible--it would require much longer than the lifetime of the universe to compute a move.) Algorithms for computer chess do not and cannot guarantee checkmate, but as is now well known, they can certainly achieve checkmate, even against the best human masters.
So even if it is true that mathematical systems provide limits on what is possible, those limits are very broad. They are limits on what can be guaranteed, but they are not limits on what can be accomplished with heuristics that aren't guaranteed to work 100% of the time.
Luke said...
> What other alternative is there? "Libertarian free will" just means "free will doesn't have to follow physical laws".
The alternative to causal monism is causal pluralism. This is quite new in philosophy; from Vreese 2006: "the debate on causal pluralism is scarcely out of the egg". There is also the contrast of general causation vs. singular causation: do causal relations between events presuppose the existence of causal laws? Even that distinction is pretty new; see The mishap at Reichenbach fall: Singular vs. general causation, a 1995 paper written by a former professor. (See also SEP: Probabilistic Causation § Singular and General Causation.)
That's a sketch of the philosophy; one way it would work out concretely is that the "laws" or "character" governing each individual person might be unique. There is of course fantastic overlap—without it society would be impossible—but there is simply no reason to suppose that somehow, "at core", every person is the same, run by precisely the same laws, etc. Those in the human sciences "has no need of that hypothesis". For a fun conceptualization of how this might work, see "A New Theory of Free Will" and the Peer-to-Peer Simulation Hypothesis. For purposes of this conversation, I'm most interested in the way that the author arrives at "the appearance of [a] single observed, intersubjective reality". We can also talk virtual reality e.g. in one of Neal Stephenson's novels; the idea here is that one needs a common interface with which to interact with others.
> > what is the subtlest deviation which would falsify physicalism?
> It depends on what alternative you are proposing and how close its predictions are to those of physicalism in the domain being tested. If your alternative is just "the laws we currently know of aren't exactly correct", that's not a test of physicalism; it's just a test of our current knowledge of the laws, which is admitted to be incomplete.
The equation F = GmM/r^2 tells us what never happens; indeed it tells us that almost every logical possibility does not happen. The alternatives are immediately obvious. Now I'm ok with physicalism being less precise, but if you cannot say anything like the most subtle thing it says will never happen, that makes me wonder what exactly it does say.
> Also, I think you misunderstand how testing of theories work. When we test any law, we don't get exact answers; we get a range. For example, tests of Newton's law of gravity don't give you an exact exponent; they give a range, such as 1.999998 to 2.000001 (note: I don't know the actual range experimental tests give for this law, but I would bet it's pinned down at least as accurately as the numbers I just gave).
I was also betting that the accuracy has been pinned down to much greater than my ^2.0001. We could probably find out more specifics if we really wanted, via modified Newtonian dynamics.
> … I don't see how it would be controllable in the brain the way a spacecraft's trajectory is controllable …
Neither do I. But given how little we understand about [self-]consciousness, maybe we oughtn't recapitulate the mistake of thinking the cell is just a bunch of goo.
A perfect analogy is an identity.
Luke said...
> > > And, as Carroll points out, if there were any other interation that had appreciable strength in this domain, we would already have seen it in experiments.
> > Is this published in any peer-reviewed journals that you know of?
> I believe Carroll gives journal references in one of the articles you linked to. He certainly names various experimenters; Googling on their names should find the papers even if Carroll doesn't link to them explicitly. The short answer is yes, there have been many experiments run to test for the presence of forces other than those we already know; it's not a fringe part of physics or something out of the way.
You misunderstand my question, which is probably my fault. What I meant to ask is how Carroll knows with such confidence that if there were other forces, then the search methods currently employed are likely to have found them. I believe his judgment that the search methods currently employed aren't likely to find something new. There is subtlety here, because if Carroll presupposes reductionism, then he will probably only look for new forces in experiments which probe "the fundamental level" directly. But who is to say they won't show up [first?] elsewhere?
> So if you can find a theory with a different Big Equation that gives rise to the same approximation, then tests in the domain where you use the approximation cannot distinguish between those two theories.
I'm confident that mathematicians can take an approximation and formally define the entire class of possibilities which are thereby permitted.
> But you don't have a different Big Equation to propose.
Were I to do so in this context, I would be capitulating to reductionism. The quest for a Theory of Everything is not an innocent pursuit. So instead, I ask questions like, "Does Carroll's stance promote progress in the human sciences?" If all he intends to do is offer guidance to other physicists, that's one thing; if he says this should materially impact how other scientists (and perhaps non-scientists) think about and act in reality, I want to see details of that guidance published in peer-reviewed journals in the appropriate fields. I'm going to call shenanigans on anyone who says one can only falsify his ideas on his own playground (physics).
BTW I'm not a complete nutter in asserting my stance; perhaps the most prominent philosopher who also questions the kind of unification & reductionism Carroll and others are going for is Nancy Cartwright; see her How the Laws of Physics Lie and The Dappled World: A Study of the Boundaries of Science.
> We have to get along with the best theory we have.
In [some?] physics, sure. But where that theory doesn't actually offer guidance, we aren't getting along with it. At best we're getting along with an approximation. Reductionism is a massive, massive promissory note. I say it should be treated as such.
> I don't think Carroll is trying to "infer ontology". … That's a prediction about observable facts, not "ontology".
An ontology which is permanently shielded from observation is useless; I meant one which isn't permanently shielded. (So I disagree with Kant's Ding an sich.)
> Differently from what?
Luke said...
> I have read most of After Virtue, and I agree with MacIntyre as regards this particular statement.
Cool. Now I'm going to suggest that Bruce Waller is not as brilliant as MacIntyre. So we might have to do some extra work for him in order to work out that semantic shift I claim is going on with a whole class of terms. Then we can hopefully figure out an experimentum crucis. Where do the differences we're arguing about show up most strongly in reality?
As a potential example, Christian theology has a phrase which I connect to Kane's 'dual rationality': "acting against your better knowledge/judgment". The idea here is that a person has a genuine choice, of two compelling courses of action, and freely chose between them. That is, nobody and nothing external to the person determined which choice was made. In such cases, when one chooses against one's better knowledge, one is guilty. It is my understanding that naturalistic understandings cannot tolerate such a scenario. Perhaps I am wrong, but let me sketch it out a bit further.
I am intentionally connecting unstable Lagrangian points, 'dual rationality', and "acting against your better knowledge/judgment". In each case, an infinitesimal force can 'choose' A vs. B. According to naturalism, there are no such forces; the only option here is noise (ontological or epistemological). Yes maybe we might find that physical law requires the ordinal numbers but that is not our best guess now and hey, aren't we supposed to found all of life on our best guess now? (Unless I'm misreading Carroll and he really intends his advice to be restricted to physics or at least the hard[er?] sciences.)
If a person actually exercises his/her freedom at unstable Lagrangian points (I'm moving from "small Δv model of free will" → "dv model of free will"), then the way to non-manipulatively push for a course change is to argue just up to the point where 'dual rationality' is satisfied: there are equally compelling reasons to choose one path vs. another. I can go into more reasons why one would want to hold back. But if there is no such freedom of the will, then it is better to surpass the equally compelling state of dual rationality; it would be absolutely stupid to let noise make the decision! To manipulate, one would constantly surpass equality just enough to get enough decisions to go your way, but under the consciousness threshold of the other person.
In all this, it's important to note that 'rationality' here is just a system of reasoning; it's not the Enlightenment idea of 'Reason', which leads us into all truth. Ian Hacking explores this matter in Language, Truth, and Reason, which was published in the anthology Rationality and Relativism.
Let me know if the above might possibly work for an experimentum crucis. Let me just say that I know it is extremely offensive to suggest to most people who comment on the internet that they might be guilty of acting against their better knowledge. It would be really sobering to learn that possibly God is trying to challenge us to better ways of thinking and living and we've been constructing a metaphysic (I think overall, that's the right word) which perfectly occludes the non-violent, non-calamitous, non-manipulative kind of challenging.
Luke said...
> > My suspicion is that thinking on free will shares some of the same … properties of confused thinking as MacIntyre claims hold of moral and ethical thinking.
> I share your suspicion. In fact, this is a point Dennett has made repeatedly in his writings about free will, though he is coming at it from a different direction, so to speak, than MacIntyre.
Would you be willing/able to sketch some of Dennett's main points, given what I've said so far in this conversation? I've yet to get into Dennett; I have this weird problem with diving too deeply into topics like this where they get too far away from practical lived life and I cannot sustain attention. I've been working out at the Tower of Abstractions Gym over the last few years, but I still feel like I'm a weakling.
> > How do we have freedom which can be violated?
> … Using billiard balls as the paradigmatic example of "following the laws of physics" invites the confusion between physicalism and simplistic physicalism that I talked about before …
That's fine, but you haven't answered my question—other than by waving at "more is different"/emergence. Just like you cannot add any finite number of Turing machines together and circumvent Rice's theorem, I am suspicious that no matter how much "more is different" you do, if you stick to reductionism and a restricted class of mathematical formalisms at base, you might not be able to get sufficiently interesting freedom which can be violated.
> > if "more is different", what restraints does Carroll's reductionism put on the amount of "different" which can happen?
> If physicalism is true, then human beings are physical systems, so anything human beings can do can be done by physical systems, operating within the laws of physics.
But what do the laws of physics disallow? We're back at the "what would subtly falsify?" question. We could key off of Jeffery Jay Lowder's definition of "physical entity" (mostly drawing on Paul Draper):
>> physical entity: an entity which is either (1) the kind of entity studied by physicists or chemists today; or (2) the kind of entity studied by physicists or chemists in the future, which has some sort of nomological or historical connection to the kinds of entities studied by physicists or chemists today. (The Nature of Naturalism)
>> A deeper difficulty springs from the lesson won through decades of study in the philosophy of science: there is no hard and fast specification of what 'science' must be, no determinate criterion of the form 'x is science iff …'. It follows that there can be no straightforward definition of Second Philosophy along the lines 'trust only the methods of science'. Thus Second Philosophy, as I understand it, isn't a set of beliefs, a set of propositions to be affirmed; it has no theory. Since its contours can't be drawn by outright definition, I resort to the device of introducing a character, a particular sort of idealized inquirer called the Second Philosopher, and proceed by describing her thoughts and practices in a range of contexts; Second Philosophy is then to be understood as the product of her inquiries. (Second Philosophy: A Naturalistic Method, 1)
Luke said...
Sure, but that qualifier is implicit in Sean Carroll's Seriously, The Laws Underlying The Physics of Everyday Life Really Are Completely Understood. Carroll is not an anti-realist; he thinks we're so close that he's happy to say "I've also assumed the Everett formulation of quantum mechanics; I'm thinking that the quantum state is the physical thing; there's no sort of hidden variable underneath." (FQXi: Fluctuations in de Sitter Space, 18:14) A quick exploration of what he says about the MWI interpretation on his blog will show that he isn't just tentatively assuming.
Yes, Hubert Dreyfus argued against this extensively; now it is accepted that AI will not be restricted to "symbol manipulation or 'GOFAI'". But when Carroll argues what he does, he isn't allowing for a non-symbolic layer underneath. (For an example of such a layer, see Robert Laughlin on "organizational laws of nature" in A Different Universe: Reinventing Physics from the Bottom Down.) Indeed, in FQXi: Fluctuations in de Sitter Space he explicitly argues against down-fluctuations in entropy at the quantum level, on the basis that there is no [further] microstructure which can thusly fluctuate. This would be in contradiction to classical entropy occasionally down-fluctuating because entropy is a macro measure of a micro structure.
If you want to argue that further advances in understanding the "fundamental" laws of physics might change things in the same way that there are heuristics in addition to [feasible] algorithms, then I have to ask how much we should expect them to change, which sends us back to my previous comment where I asked "But what do the laws of physics disallow?".
> So even if it is true that mathematical systems provide limits on what is possible, those limits are very broad.
Actually, there's a funny situation: on the one hand the possibilities are so broad that one must use approximations of Carroll's Big Equation™ to simulate anything but the most simple experiments. On the other hand, the possibilities are so narrow that it's apparently meaningful to discussions of free will that Carroll's Big Equation™ is the case. So while we cannot use that equation in very many cases scientifically, it's supposed to be important when it comes to free will. Does that set off zero alarm bells in your head?
P.S. I'm being partly tongue-in-cheek when I write "Big Equation™". I'm down with your "We have to get along with the best theory we have.", if we restrict that theory to the domains where it actually applies, where it actually provides scientific, empirical guidance.
Ron said...
> Why should you or I care about 100% certainty?
I would think you would care about it because it's essential to Christian theology. If there is doubt regarding the reliability of scripture or the perfection of God then it seems to me that the whole thing comes apart at the seams because the question immediately arises: how do we know what parts of scripture are reliable and which are not? How do we know which parts of God's word are perfect and which are not? To those questions there can be no answer (AFAICT). If divine revelation can fail, there is no place to fall back to.
> > Almost. There's always freedom to choose which hypothesis to advance or test next.
> Isn't that … ultra-important?
No. It matters only for efficiency, not for the reliability of the results in the long run. That is one of the qualities that makes science so effective.
> Adopting beliefs which would have prevented the rise of modern science seems problematic to me
It took about 100,000 years or so between the advent of anatomically modern humans and the emergence of modern science, but once it emerged it grew very rapidly -- from inception to its present state in about 400 years, or 0.4% of our history as a species. I think it's probably impossible for social forces alone to eradicate it at this point. So I think the emergence of science depends more on economic forces than social ones. To develop science, a society first has to have enough excess production to allow some of its members to just sit around and think. Once a society gets to that point, the development of science is probably inevitable.
> Actually, I meant you to answer the question in context;
I believe I did.
> could we plausibly discover actual structure in said quantum randomness, via the effects it has in chaotic human behavior/thinking?
I doubt it. Quantum effects would only manifest themselves when events are right on the hairy edge of going one way or the other. I doubt that happens often, and I doubt that the situations where it happens are predictable because chaos.
But I could be wrong. (N.B. those are five words I rarely hear pass the lips of SI-Christians.)
> people in generally [sic] like their delusions
Indeed they do.
there is simply no reason to suppose that somehow, "at core", every person is the same, run by precisely the same laws, etc
It depends on what level you want to put the laws. If you mean that your internal psychology might not work exactly the same as mine, sure, that's no problem. If you mean that electrons and quarks in your brain might work differently from electrons and quarks in my brain--or that your brain might be made of something else other than electrons and quarks, by contrast with my brain--sorry, no sale. Offhand I can't tell which of these two alternatives "causal pluralism" is taking; I'll try to work through some of the links you gave when I have time.
The equation F = GmM/r^2 tells us what never happens
What never happens according to that theoretical model, yes. But you have to compare that theoretical model with experiment. Experiment can never tell us that anything besides the exact inverse square law never happens; that would require infinite experimental accuracy, which is impossible. The best experiment can tell us is that anything besides the narrow range of an inverse 1.9999 law to an inverse 2.00001 law (or whatever precision we have actually tested this to) never happens. (Strictly speaking, even the "never" is an overstatement with regard to experiment; experiment can only tell us that nothing outside the tested range has happened yet, when we've tested it. But now we're getting into serious philosophical hairsplitting, which I don't think is necessary here.)
I was also betting that the accuracy has been pinned down to much greater than my ^2.0001.
I have not actually checked, but I would bet it's been pinned down considerably more accurately than that as well.
We could probably find out more specifics if we really wanted, via modified Newtonian dynamics.
I'm not a fan of MOND, because we already know that Newtonian gravity is not exactly correct; our best current theory of gravity is General Relativity, and although some MOND proponents have tried to make a relativistic version of it, none of them have worked very well.
In fact, this formalism allows testing a wide range of alternative theories of gravity that share some basic features with GR but differ from it in one or more specific parameters. None of the parameters exactly correspond to the exponent in the Newtonian law of gravity, because that law is actually a derived prediction of GR for a particular situation, not a fundamental law of GR. But the Wikipedia page and its links and references should give a decent overview of the current state of testing of GR and other theories of gravity.
maybe we oughtn't recapitulate the mistake of thinking the cell is just a bunch of goo.
Where did I say it was? "Thermal noise" is not the same as "bunch of goo". Obviously a cell is a highly complex, organized system. But it is also a very "noisy" system, in the sense that the energies of random fluctuations are not much smaller than the energies of the interactions that the cell uses to perform its functions. And the energies of random fluctuations are certainly much larger than any "infinitesimal" pushes that you are suggesting could play a role similar to the small delta v given to a spacecraft at an appropriate point to change its trajectory.
What I meant to ask is how Carroll knows with such confidence that if there were other forces, then the search methods currently employed are likely to have found them.
Because that's how quantum field theory works. He explains this in one of the articles you linked to, but briefly and heuristically, it goes like this: QFT says that every interaction corresponds to a particle, and the stronger the interaction, the easier it is to make the corresponding particle in experiments. Given any hypothetical interaction, QFT tells you what kind of particle it corresponds to, and how to make it in experiments; so by simply running experiments to try to make various kinds of hypothetical particles, we can test for the presence (or absence, if the particles fail to appear) of various hypothetical interactions.
This method has not just been used to rule out interactions, btw; it was also used to explore and confirm the properties of the weak and strong interactions, by making the corresponding particles in experiments and measuring their properties.
if Carroll presupposes reductionism, then he will probably only look for new forces in experiments which probe "the fundamental level" directly. But who is to say they won't show up [first?] elsewhere?
Carroll doesn't "presuppose" reductionism. Reductionism with regard to our brains and bodies, and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life--the fact that all of these things are made of a small set of fundamental particles and interactions--is an experimental fact, not a "presupposition".
Carroll distinguishes this kind of reductionism from a much stronger kind reductionism, the kind that says that everything--not just the things we deal with in everyday life--is made of a small set of fundamental particles and interactions. As he admits, we don't know for sure that this is the case, because there are some things--dark matter, for example--that we don't know (yet) how to explain in terms of a small set of fundamental particles and interactions (because the set of fundamental particles and interactions we currently know of don't explain these things). But we don't need to know whether reductionism in that strong sense is true to know that reductionism in the much weaker sense given above is true.
if he says this should materially impact how other scientists (and perhaps non-scientists) think about and act in reality, I want to see details of that guidance published in peer-reviewed journals in the appropriate fields.
I'm not sure I understand what kind of "guidance" you think Carroll should be giving to other fields, beyond the simple statement that our bodies and brains, and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life, are made of a small set of fundamental particles and interactions, all of which we understand.
perhaps the most prominent philosopher who also questions the kind of unification & reductionism Carroll and others are going for is Nancy Cartwright
I've read How the Laws of Physics Lie. Many of the concerns she raises in that book are valid, but they have nothing to do with what we're discussing here; they don't in any way undermine the experimental fact that our bodies and brains and all the objects we deal with in everyday life are made of a small set of fundamental particles and interactions, all of which we understand.
An ontology which is permanently shielded from observation is useless; I meant one which isn't permanently shielded.
I don't understand what you mean by this, or how it relates to this discussion.
I'm going to suggest that Bruce Waller is not as brilliant as MacIntyre.
I would agree with this assessment. :-)
In such cases, when one chooses against one's better knowledge, one is guilty. It is my understanding that naturalistic understandings cannot tolerate such a scenario.
I don't see why not. The key term in all this is "one". What is the boundary of the "person"? If you insist on narrowing the boundary of the "person" so that all of the causes of a person's behavior fall outside the boundary, then of course it's going to look like one can't possibly "choose against one's better knowledge"--because one can't "choose" at all. (Dennett likes to quote a saying: "If you make yourself really small, you can externalize virtually everything.") Taken to its logical conclusion, this viewpoint would say that "one" doesn't exist in the first place; there are no "persons", no "choices", no anything except for events happening according to the laws of physics.
However, while such an extreme viewpoint is consistent with naturalism, it is in no way required by naturalism. Certainly Waller does not take this extreme viewpoint--although one of the issues I have with his book, based on what I've read so far, is that he often talks about people and their choices as though he were taking the extreme viewpoint, while at the same time insisting on using words like "morally right/wrong" and "fair/unfair" that are meaningless on the extreme viewpoint. If we are going to allow persons to exist, then we have to allow them to, you know, exist--to say that at least some of the events that happen in a person's body and brain are caused by the person, not by something external to the person. And as soon as you do that, you open up the possibility that the person might be responsible for some of those events, including things like "choosing against one's better knowledge"--making a choice even though one has information that shows that choice to be suboptimal, given one's own goals.
Let me know if the above might possibly work for an experimentum crucis.
I'm not sure what you are trying to experimentally test.
If what you are trying to do is experimentally test for miracles, I think the idea is incoherent. When we see something happen that doesn't fit into our current understanding of the laws of physics, we don't conclude that things can happen that violate the laws of physics; we conclude that our current understanding of the laws of physics is incomplete.
If, on the other hand, you are trying to test for different possible mechanisms of how "making choices" might be implemented in the brain, consistent with naturalism, I don't see how what you are proposing does that.
what do the laws of physics disallow?
If you're asking for a detailed description of what kinds of things the laws of physics permit complex systems like human brains and bodies to do, the answer is "nobody knows". Nobody has a detailed theoretical model that derives the possible capacities of human brains and bodies from General Relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. So if that's what it would take for you to give up the idea that miracles might be happening inside human brains and bodies, then we might as well give up on this discussion.
However, insisting on this kind of answer seems extremely unreasonable to me. Nobody demands such a detailed model in order to explain how other complex systems work. Nobody has a detailed theoretical model that derives the possible capacities of cars, or the weather, from General Relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. Our models of all these things are built using many levels of approximation on top of the fundamental laws. Why should our model of human brains and bodies be any different? And if your answer is that humans are somehow special, how do you know? The fact that we are humans doesn't count; of course we think we are special, but so what?
when Carroll argues what he does, he isn't allowing for a non-symbolic layer underneath.
What I said about what mathematics can and cannot set limits on has nothing to do with a "symbolic" vs. "non-symbolic" layer. It's simply recognizing that mathematical arguments only apply when whatever you are trying to apply them to satisfies the exact premises of the argument. Something that satisfies a similar, but not exactly identical, premise doesn't count.
on the one hand the possibilities are so broad that one must use approximations of Carroll's Big Equation™ to simulate anything but the most simple experiments
This has nothing to do with how "broad" the possibilities are. (To the extent the Big Equation is deterministic--which on Carroll's MWI-based interpretation, it is--there is only one possibility.) It has to do with the Big Equation being unsolvable exactly (at least at our current state of knowledge) except for extremely simple, idealized situations. If we could solve the Big Equation exactly for all situations, we wouldn't need to make approximations.
Luke said...
> > Why should you or I care about 100% certainty?
> I would think you would care about it because it's essential to Christian theology.
Is it? What about that "we see through a glass darkly"? What about the tension between God being infinite and unfathomable, and yet wanting to be ver better known? It sounds almost like … the idea that science may be truly accumulating knowledge, even if it can be quite wrong in various aspects. Because if every aspect of science is totally wrong, then our reasoning from it will be totally wrong: garbage in, garbage out. Why can't theology engage in the kind of successive approximation that is characteristic of science? I know you have this idea that God could just perfectly communicate to us; can you tolerate that you might actually be wrong on that, and that we finite beings might [logically!] have to understand an infinite being via successive approximation?
> If there is doubt regarding the reliability of scripture or the perfection of God then it seems to me that the whole thing comes apart at the seams because the question immediately arises: how do we know what parts of scripture are reliable and which are not? How do we know which parts of God's word are perfect and which are not? To those questions there can be no answer (AFAICT). If divine revelation can fail, there is no place to fall back to.
Our interpretation can be the point of failure. But if it really disturbs you that God might correct people on some points while failing to correct them on others (e.g. push toward egalitarianism while leaving the 'science' aspect unchallenged), we can talk about that. It is my experience that people can only handle so much deviation from where they currently are when teaching them or challenging their character/behavior. Perhaps you have experienced something different in your interactions with other people or yourself?
> > > Almost. There's always freedom to choose which hypothesis to advance or test next.
> > Isn't that … ultra-important?
> No. It matters only for efficiency, not for the reliability of the results in the long run. That is one of the qualities that makes science so effective.
So necessarily, we have been determined to progress [statistically—there can be temporary setbacks]?
> To develop science, a society first has to have enough excess production to allow some of its members to just sit around and think.
That didn't [sufficiently] exist in ancient Rome/Greece? I think you might do well to look at the difference between conspicuous consumption and frugality. There is also a military dimension—the desire to dominate others has spurred a lot of technological advance. But perhaps it is best to pause this particular tangent until we can actually simulate the rise of science among sufficiently complex digitally simulated beings.
> > could we plausibly discover actual structure in said quantum randomness, via the effects it has in chaotic human behavior/thinking?
> I doubt it. Quantum effects would only manifest themselves when events are right on the hairy edge of going one way or the other. I doubt that happens often, and I doubt that the situations where it happens are predictable because chaos.
Well, that sounds like a solid empirical claim that could differentiate your understanding of free will from mine.
> But I could be wrong. (N.B. those are five words I rarely hear pass the lips of SI-Christians.)
I could make a snide remark of how infrequently I find atheists willing to admit their characters are in need of reformation. Many happily tell me mine does, though. :-D
you cannot add any finite number of Turing machines together and circumvent Rice's theorem
More precisely: you cannot add any finite number of Turing machines together and be guaranteed to compute any undecidable property. That's what "undecidable" means--there is no algorithm that is guaranteed to work. But this says nothing at all about whether you can, by putting together enough Turing machines, construct a device that guesses, with much better than chance (but not perfect) accuracy, the values of undecidable properties.
I am suspicious that no matter how much "more is different" you do, if you stick to reductionism and a restricted class of mathematical formalisms at base, you might not be able to get sufficiently interesting freedom which can be violated.
The only way to find out is to keep investigating how our brains and bodies work and building scientific models of them.
Ron said...
> What about that "we see through a glass darkly"?
If we don't have certainty in the reliability of scripture, how can we know whether or not to trust that passage (or any passage)?
> What about the tension between God being infinite and unfathomable
If we don't have certainly in the reliability of scripture and the trustworthiness of God's word, how can we know God is infinite and unfathomable?
> we have been determined to progress
Your use of the word "determined" here is ambiguous. It could mean that we humans strongly aspire to progress, and yes, I believe that is the case. Or it could mean that progress is inevitable, which I don't think is the case. But I do think that progress is overwhelmingly likely in the long run.
> That didn't [sufficiently] exist in ancient Rome/Greece?
Both the Greeks and the Romans made significant progress. More in engineering than in science, but still, some of the structures stand to this day. Some of their plumbing even still works! That is no mean feat.
Luke said...
> If we don't have certainty in the reliability of scripture, how can we know whether or not to trust that passage (or any passage)?
You can try it out. (For example, see my relational sin notes.) There are plenty of predictions of what happens if you act this way or that. The same holds for something like political liberalism: there are ideas on how to enact it and predictions of what will come when you do. The process is really noisy and you have to keep your eye on multi-generational patterns, but that's cool if you want to build awesome things (e.g. like Francis Bacon [[mostly:] just] dreamed of). If you want to be lazy and just enjoy life then all this is too hard; it's also hard if one's leaders pretend that things operate one way (e.g. as a "democracy") when in fact they don't. But the Bible criticizes leaders more than any other group; it is a very good idea to question them in intelligent ways.
I suspect you might be too stuck in a flavor of Divine Command Theory which construes God's commands as having an arbitrary element, with no corroboration in reality. I get that there are some flavors of Christianity which seem in love with that, but I oppose them on numerous grounds. Two good places to start come not from Christians, but Jews: Yoram Hazony's The Philosophy of Hebrew Scripture and Joshua A. Berman's Created Equal: How the Bible Broke with Ancient Political Thought. You have some very weird ideas of what divine revelation *must* look like, Ron. I get that they aren't yours, but perhaps you could investigate whether they make logical sense. If actually they function more to keep the little guy† in his place, maybe it's demonstrably a perversion (Deut 17:14–20 is a nice resource for internal criticism).
† The little girl knows she should stay in her place. Guys sometimes need reminding.
> Your use of the word "determined" here is ambiguous. It could mean that we humans strongly aspire to progress, and yes, I believe that is the case. Or it could mean that progress is inevitable, which I don't think is the case. But I do think that progress is overwhelmingly likely in the long run.
I meant determined by the laws of nature (plus initial conditions). I'm guessing when you say "progress", you mean something like Deutsch's Beginning of Infinity—that is, significant and fantastic progress. If so, then how are you concluding this other than via the principle of induction?
BTW, I would say that we have to want to go through the pain of admitting where we self-deluded ourselves (then explicitly repenting of it), treat more and more people equally, etc. I would also say that it is not clear that we Moderns have the will to do this. You seem rather more optimistic, which I find interesting.
> > That didn't [sufficiently] exist in ancient Rome/Greece?
> Both the Greeks and the Romans made significant progress. More in engineering than in science, but still, some of the structures stand to this day. Some of their plumbing even still works! That is no mean feat.
Sure, they did some really cool things. And yet their civilizations collapsed. Are you allowing for Modern civilization to collapse in your optimism about human progress? Or are we [with say ≥ 98% probability] beyond the mistakes of the Greeks and Romans?
Would you be willing/able to sketch some of Dennett's main points, given what I've said so far in this conversation?
I think two key points are central in Dennett's thinking (though this by no means captures all of the main ideas in his writings):
(1) Functionalism: what counts is the functions that something can perform, not what it's made of or how it does it;
(2) Don't confuse explaining with explaining away.
I'll try to illustrate these points by describing Dennett's model of free will (this is based mostly on my memory of Freedom Evolves). The basic underlying concept is what Dennett calls "generate and test", which is perhaps best illustrated by imagining you are an AI programmer trying to make a program for a robot to fulfill some function for which you don't know a guaranteed algorithm--say, for example, finding food in a new environment. There is no way to solve this problem by just turning the crank; it's not like adding numbers or solving an equation. The only known way of proceeding is to start with a guess, then check how well it works, then iterate until you find a solution. So, for example, you might program the robot to just pick a random direction and go in that direction for some distance; then, if it doesn't find any food, pick another random direction and try again. Of course this can get much more sophisticated--for example, you can use information from the environment to help pick the direction instead of just choosing randomly. But the basic architecture of the program is still: make a guess, test it, iterate. This is what Dennett calls "generate and test".
Once you have this trick, though, there's no need to limit it to just one level. For example, consider a "meta-food-finding program", which the robot might run, which tells it to pick at random some food-finding algorithm from a set of such algorithms, try it, see how well it works; then pick a different algorithm and try that; etc. Then, after some number of trials, assess the results and use that information to refine your choice of food-finding algorithms. And you can continue to add more and more meta-levels to this, to deal with more complex problems.
Nor is there any requirement that every trial must run in the real world. Given enough information about the environment, you can program the robot to construct a "virtual environment" in its robot brain, and run trials of different food-finding programs, say, in the virtual environment instead of the real one. That way you can find out which algorithms work well and which don't, at least to some good enough approximation, without having to actually risk failure in the real world. (Dennett likes to quote a phrase of Karl Popper here: this strategy "permits our hypotheses to die in our stead".)
Dennett's basic claim is that, once you have enough levels and meta-levels of this sort of thing running in a brain, you can build the kind of free will we humans experience. Looked at one way, it's all just computer code (or the brain equivalent), running algorithms; but looked at another way, it's a robot (or a human) doing the sorts of things we do: learning, planning, making choices, evaluating the consequences, updating our model of the world.
I'm probably getting close to the 4096-character limit so I'll continue in a follow-up post by showing how the above relates to the two key ideas I described.
Ok, following up: we have a model of a human brain with free will as a kind of computer program running many levels and meta-levels of generate and test. Now let's look at the two key ideas I described.
(1) Functionalism. The model I've described is entirely naturalistic: there are no miracles, there is no magic, everything is just ordinary physical objects behaving according to physical laws. And yet this thing can perform all the functions we associate with human free will. So is it "real" free will or isn't it?
Dennett's answer is: fulfilling the functions of free will is "real" free will, as real as you can get. As he puts it, something that fulfills the functions is the only kind of free will that is worth wanting. It's not worth wanting the miraculous, magical kind of free will, because, aside from the fact that it doesn't exist anyway, it doesn't perform any functions that the naturalistic kind does, and the functions are the important thing. The fact that the thing that is performing these functions is a pile of levels and meta-levels of programming kludges and hacks doesn't matter; it does the job, and that's what matters.
(2) A common rejoinder to the above is that a model like Dennett's doesn't explain free will; it explains it away. If that kind of model is really all there is to human free will, then "real" human free will doesn't exist. (Dennett's models of other things, like consciousness and personhood, get the same kind of criticism.) But taken to its logical conclusion, this viewpoint would have to claim that nothing ever gets explained; it's all explaining away. This viewpoint is just the "extreme naturalism" that I described in an earlier comment: the view that nothing "really exists" except events happening according to the laws of physics.
But there is no need to adopt such an impoverished view of explanation. When we explain a rainbow by talking about how sunlight reflects in water droplets in the atmosphere, we are not saying the rainbow doesn't exist; we are explaining how the rainbow gets produced. When we explain a chess-playing computer by talking about how it computes move trees and heuristically evaluates board positions, we are not saying it doesn't achieve checkmate; we are explaining how it achieves checkmate. And when we explain human free will by talking about levels and meta-levels of generate and test algorithms running in human brains, we aren't saying humans don't have free will; we are explaining how human free will works.
There are cases in which explaining is indeed explaining away. For example, if we were to explain our current theory of chemistry to a person from the 16th century who believed the phlogiston theory, we would not be explaining phlogiston; we would be explaining it away. There is no level of description in our current theory of chemistry that corresponds to phlogiston; that concept simply has no place in our current theory. But explanations like Dennett's explanation of free will aren't like that; there is a perfectly good place for the concept of free will in his model. The fact that the details of the model are not what many people expect an explanation of free will to look like is beside the point; it's no different from our current theory of quantum mechanics being very different from what people expect an explanation of the structure of atoms to look like.
it doesn't perform any functions that the naturalistic kind does
s/does/doesn't/
Luke said...
I started fisking but then decided to take a step back and try to address this matter holistically. I'll save what I've written so far and can go back to it if necessary. Feel free to respond with something holistic as well; we can always dive back into the details later.
We got a little lost talking about F = GmM/r^2; my point was always that the very nature of that equation is to say that a great number of phenomena which are "nearby" our day-to-day existence will never happen/never be observed. Yes that is "according to that theoretical model", but physicalism appears to be a theoretical model which is being used to assert causal monism, which surely matters when it comes to understanding free will and everything that depends on it (e.g. moral responsibility). And yet, I can't detect anything physicalism says will never happen which is "nearby" our day-to-day experience like F = GmM/r^2.01 is. You've said physicalism needs to have an alternative on offer; I find that odd, as F = GmM/r^2 immediately suggests alternatives. I can't help thinking that physicalism can assimilate too many possible observations.
We've established that there are a number of approximations between Core Theory (probably a better name than "Carroll's Big Equation™") and the quantitative math used in places relevant for understanding the mind and the brain. Given that, we've established that what is tested in those situations is not Core Theory, but a whole class of theories. The precision of Core Theory cannot [currently] be tested at the wet, warm, macro scale. And yet, somehow the determinism still applies at the wet, warm, macro scale. Furthermore, any indeterminism has to be irrelevant because of the warm (and maybe also the macro?).
You've emphasized that "more is different". When I pointed out that surely certain things still have to be impossible or emergence can get you anything, you said that "those limits are very broad". I'm not even sure what those limits are which matter for understanding minds and brains, except: determinism of the causal monism variety. The precision of Core Theory may not be available, but determinism is—even though our confidence in determinism comes from precision.
You again emphasized "under a particular description" and pointed out that provability can be replaced with heuristic devices. I'm not entirely sure what to make of this, given that the point under contention is how sure we should be about a symbolic system which doesn't "prove" causal monism, but allegedly gives us confidence to act "as if" causal monism is true, not only with fundamental physics, but all the way to day-to-day human interaction.
Perhaps it would help to note two ways that the monistic determinism of Core Theory could be neutralized at the level of mind. First, the causal powers in Core Theory could be partially neutralized at the macro level, allowing other powers to manifest. Second, Core Theory could be just an organizational law of nature (see Robert Laughlin) and what happens at the macro scale could futz with the organized substrate to tweak how Core Theory operates. At least, I see no in principle reason for why both of these are impossible.
Finally, no matter how one draws the boundary around the self, on causal monism (fully deterministic or with indeterminism), one can always "pass the buck" for choices: either to a previous quantum state which existed before you were born, or to randomness during your life over which you had no control. The buck never stops at the individual. As Coyne said, "nobody could have done otherwise". That means that we cannot be truly guilty for acting against our better knowledge. I don't know how else to process his "its ramifications for human behavior are profound". Do you?
Ron said...
> > If we don't have certainty in the reliability of scripture, how can we know whether or not to trust that passage (or any passage)?
> You can try it out. (For example, see my relational sin notes.)
I think you and I are talking about two very different things. I'm talking about how to tell if a claim is *true*. You seem to be talking about whether a belief in a claim leads to good results independent of whether or not it is true. (False beliefs can sometimes lead to good results.)
> Sure, they [the Greeks and Romans] did some really cool things. And yet their civilizations collapsed.
Greek civilization didn't collapse, it was conquered by the Romans. Roman civilization did indeed collapse, and the resulting power vacuum was filled by the Christian Church. It is not for nothing that the subsequent period in history is called the dark ages.
But do you really mean to imply that systems of thought should be judged by how well they sustain empires? North Korea seems to be surprisingly resilient, but I would not hold them up as a model of how humans ought to conduct their affairs, and certainly not as a model of how to tell if a claim is true. Every North Korean professes to believe that Kim Jong Un is a god. If the Kim family is still ruling North Korea 1000 years from now, will that be evidence that this claim is true?
I'll try to stick with holistic comments as well, as I don't think a detailed point-by-point exchange is really necessary at this point.
You seem to be thinking of "physicalism" as a specific theory. It's not. It's just a general principle, that says that whatever the laws of physics are, they are actually laws--everything that happens, happens in accordance with them. Of course that statement by itself doesn't tell you what the laws are; you have to actually investigate--construct theories and compare them with experiments--to find that out.
So if you want to understand what constraints physicalism actually puts on what can happen, you have to look at what actual investigations have been done in the domain you're interested in. In this discussion, we're interested in the domain of our brains and bodies and the objects we deal with in everyday life. And we have a very, very detailed understanding of the fundamental laws that govern that domain. And those fundamental laws say what I've already said: our brains and bodies, and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life, are made of a small number of fundamental particles and interactions--and as far as the internal workings of our brains and bodies are concerned, which is what matters for talking about things like free will, the list is even smaller: electrons and quarks and the electromagnetic interaction. That's it: no other particles and interactions come into play. If there were, we would already have seen them and measured their properties in detail in experiments.
So the constraint physicalism puts on the internal workings of our brains and bodies, and therefore on any discussion of free will as far as we humans are concerned, is that if free will exists, it has to be built out of electrons and quarks and the electromagnetic interaction, just like every other capability of our brains and bodies. But there are many levels of organization in between. We don't observe quarks directly: they are packaged up into protons and neutrons, which are in turn packaged up into atomic nuclei. From nuclei and electrons you can make a wide variety of chemical elements with a wide variety of properties, and many of them play important roles in the internal workings of our brains and bodies. Those elements in turn get combined into an even wider variety of molecules with an even wider variety of properties. Molecules in turn combine into the various structures that combine into cells, which combine into organs, which combine into bodies. Then you can throw in additional ingredients like hormones, neurotransmitters, photosensitive chemicals in our retinas, very finely tuned sound-to-electric-impulse converters in our inner ears, etc., etc., etc...
So while on the one hand physicalism imposes a very tight constraint--everything has to be built out of electrons and quarks and the electromagnetic interaction--on the other hand physicalism allows a very wide range of possibilities, because there are so many electrons and quarks and interactions involved and they can combine in so many different ways. We are only beginning to investigate the details of all this--how all the ingredients I listed above, and many more besides, actually work together to do things in our brains and bodies, and what the limits are. If you want to say that your "delta v" model of free will might be lurking somewhere in there, that could be the case--as long as it's ultimately built out of electrons and quarks and the electromagnetic interaction. But the fact that that constraint still allows so many possibilities does not mean that constraint is not rock solid in itself. It is.
I did want to comment specifically on one thing, separate from my other comment just now:
no matter how one draws the boundary around the self, on causal monism (fully deterministic or with indeterminism), one can always "pass the buck" for choices: either to a previous quantum state which existed before you were born, or to randomness during your life over which you had no control. The buck never stops at the individual. As Coyne said, "nobody could have done otherwise". That means that we cannot be truly guilty for acting against our better knowledge. I don't know how else to process his "its ramifications for human behavior are profound". Do you?
If you mean, do I think you have correctly described what Coyne was trying to say, I think you have.
If you mean, do I think that means we don't have free will, no, I don't, because I don't agree with his (and, it seems, your) definition of "free will". Like Dennett, I am a functionalist. I don't care whether I "could have done otherwise" in a metaphysical sense. I care whether I am allowed to make my own choices about how to live my life, and whether I'm able to make good choices. If "making choices" can also be described, at a much lower level, as "following deterministic physical laws, as they apply to an extremely complex system responding to extremely complex inputs", that's fine with me, as long as it meets the functional requirements of freedom. If it's not fine with you, well, that's your choice.
Perhaps that phrase you use, "passing the buck", also deserves a comment. I quoted earlier that phrase that Dennett likes to quote: "If you make yourself really small, you can externalize virtually everything." But whether or not to make yourself that small is your choice. Nothing is forcing you to do that. You might say: but if everything happens according to deterministic physical laws, then it's already determined whether I will pass the buck or not. But stop and think a minute: how is it determined, if it is determined? Is it determined by you somehow finding yourself passing the buck, even though you don't want to, and then feeling really weird and surprised that you did this thing that you didn't feel like you chose to do (like the Tortoise finding that he has put a coin in his left hand as the Meta-Oracle predicted)? Or is it determined by you honestly considering both options, using whatever resources are in your brain, and then making a choice?
You don't think that kind of choice can be a deterministic process? Why not? How is it different from a chess-playing computer choosing what move to make, by evaluating options using the best heuristics it can? Does the fact that the computer is running a deterministic algorithm mean it doesn't achieve checkmate? (Remember that the algorithm, although deterministic, is not determined to achieve checkmate; it's only determined to choose moves using the best heuristics it can.) And if a much, much more complex deterministic algorithm, running a much, much more complex set of heuristics, using factors like, oh, I don't know, what choice will cause the least suffering, or will best help someone you want to help, or will best accomplish an important goal, and even meta-heuristics like what choices turned out well in the past and what choices turned out badly--if such an algorithm can make good choices, does it matter that it's deterministic? And if that's what's happening in your brain when you make good choices, is it any less "you" that makes the choices?
Luke said...
> > > If we don't have certainty in the reliability of scripture, how can we know whether or not to trust that passage (or any passage)?
> > You can try it out. (For example, see my relational sin notes.)
> I think you and I are talking about two very different things. I'm talking about how to tell if a claim is *true*. You seem to be talking about whether a belief in a claim leads to good results independent of whether or not it is true. (False beliefs can sometimes lead to good results.)
False beliefs can also lead to good science. If Robert Laughlin is right and both QFT and GR are merely organizational laws of nature—that is, the collective behavior of some substrate—then would that be absolutely devastating to us?
Switching from the 'fact' to the 'value' side of the dichotomy, perhaps we need to revisit my "Goodness itself has a predictive aspect, but not in the analytic fashion that allows you to write out deterministic equations."—from the thread which inspired this blog post.
It may also be helpful to note that a signal that we've found something true/accurate on the 'fact' side of the dichotomy is when the science paper talking about it gets citations. It's even better when those papers get citations. What this really means is that sufficiently true/accurate/useful results give life to further true/accurate/useful results. Good science is science you can build on. Why not apply the same reasoning to the 'value' side of the dichotomy?
> Greek civilization didn't collapse, it was conquered by the Romans.
True, but that appears irrelevant for the purposes of my argument. If you have awesome science but get conquered and the science doesn't continue on to infinity, you didn't have sufficient conditions for the continual conduct of science. If you have awesome science but cannot keep your society from crumbling, you didn't have sufficient conditions for the continual conduct of science.
> But do you really mean to imply that systems of thought should be judged by how well they sustain empires?
The context of the discussion is necessary & sufficient conditions for science to thrive. Do you really want to say that we cannot call the necessary conditions for science "true" in any sense? BTW, I'm fully aware that sufficient ⇏ necessary.
Here's a question for you: might it be the case that for more and more science to be done, humans might have to become better? For example, we are well into the interdisciplinary regime of science, where there is much less additional knowledge to be discovered within a traditional discipline, than if one adds at least one other discipline to the mix. But it can be hard for people of different disciplines to talk to each other, for a variety of reasons. Even biophysicists and biochemists can have trouble properly communicating to each other. Are the qualities required to communicate well with scientists in different disciplines the kinds of things which have truth-value? Or is it that the societal and psychological apparatuses we use to discover truth actually have necessary elements which are neither true nor false?
Luke said...
I'm happy with physicalism being a class of theories. What concerns me is that maybe it isn't even that. Maybe it's a metaphysic and nothing could falsify it, in precisely the sense that nothing can falsify conspiracy theories. That is: conspiracy theorists seem to be able to assimilate any phenomenon presented to them to their ontology; I worry that physicalists do this as well.
I really do understand that when one is doing the kinds of physics Carroll talks about, one cannot find anything other than the four forces / two fundamental forces. What I object to is treating reductionistic promissory notes as if they were science. Just like the strong force, weak force, and EM were just one force at the beginning, who is to say more forces cannot present under new conditions? (Where "new" is "sufficiently different from the domain where the three non-gravitational forces just become distinguishable".) Why are we so confident that chaotic systems which pass through the equivalent of unstable Lagrangian points end up going one way vs. another only because of "noise" (this doesn't have to be quantum noise), vs. there being a class of infinitesimal forces? I can see that any patterns which emerge from noise in experiments done by physicists are explicable in terms of the four forces, but why say that if some new force is going to be observable to humans, then it will manifest in those experiments? I see no justification whatsoever for that.
Let me illustrate this matter by talking about Turing machines implemented on semiconductors. Current computers are tremendously complex. But fundamentally, any time that something happens other than due to a 1 or a 0 (let's ignore MLC and true noise), that's a defect. All the fun physics that is going on must be neutralized in order for the Turing machine to operate as a Turing machine. Such neutralization allows for a categorically different kind of causation to happen—to really happen. To the extent that that's not really what happens, anything built on top of that layer is also not really true. Including our theories about determinism. (This applies even if we aren't Turing machines; we just need the "not really true", e.g. via heuristic thinking.)
You say that physicalism requires that everything (I'll add: required to understand everyday life) be built out of electrons and quarks and EM. But why is it important for the psychologist and sociologist to believe this, in order to do the highest quality science in their fields? Suppose instead they adopt causal pluralism in their theorizing. If that ends up better explaining human behavior, are they wrong "because physics knows best"? Again, the approximation required to apply the fundamental equations of physics at the macro scale loses structure from those fundamental equations; why does the monistic determinism aspect survive unscathed?
Ron said...
> False beliefs can also lead to good science.
You need to read:
> The context of the discussion is necessary & sufficient conditions for science to thrive.
Maybe that's *your* context, but it's not mine. This discussion started because I characterized parts of the Bible as "evil", and then it segued into a discussion of free will. If we're talking about "necessary & sufficient conditions for science to thrive" that's news to me.
> might it be the case that for more and more science to be done, humans might have to become better?
Of course it might. But I don't see how "becoming better" in that regard can possibly involve believing in the core tenets of Christianity. In particular, I don't see how it can involve believing that everything bad that happens in this world is our fault, that we are powerless to do anything about it, and that our only recourse is to fall on our knees and beg for the benevolence of a non-existent deity.
Luke said...
> > False beliefs can also lead to good science.
> You need to read:
You've already linked me to that. You must have missed my use of "successive approximation".
> > The context of the discussion is necessary & sufficient conditions for science to thrive.
> Maybe that's *your* context, but it's not mine. This discussion started because I characterized parts of the Bible as "evil", and then it segued into a discussion of free will. If we're talking about "necessary & sufficient conditions for science to thrive" that's news to me.
Wait a second, here's upstream in the conversation:
> Ron: So I think the emergence of science depends more on economic forces than social ones. To develop science, a society first has to have enough excess production to allow some of its members to just sit around and think. Once a society gets to that point, the development of science is probably inevitable.
Notice your "To develop science". And the conquering of the Greek empire and collapse of the Roman empire makes it rather clear that something more than just economic factors are required for science to continue ad infinitum. Which is what I was getting at with my use of "modern science".
Luke said...
> > might it be the case that for more and more science to be done, humans might have to become better?
> Of course it might. But I don't see how "becoming better" in that regard can possibly involve believing in the core tenets of Christianity.
Let me first establish whether any values can have truth-value before we jump all the way to Christianity. So: if scientists have to practice some set of values in order to do science, and have to practice them better/more articulately in order to do the next stage of science (e.g. interdisciplinary), do those values get assigned anything like a truth-value?
Now, we can jump straight to Christianity in this way. Suppose I and those who sufficiently agree with me can take our understanding of Christianity and try and improve the practice of science with it. If we succeed and excel in comparison to other strategies being practiced, then our understanding of Christianity will be on par with "the best explanation so far" standard of scientific inquiry which you presented to the Berkeley atheists. There's no need for certainty or absolute truth; instead we just need to work from the best that we have so far. Or have I missed something?
> In particular, I don't see how it can involve believing that everything bad that happens in this world is our fault, that we are powerless to do anything about it, and that our only recourse is to fall on our knees and beg for the benevolence of a non-existent deity.
The idea that you have to beg for God's benevolence is probably heretical to most versions of remotely orthodox Christianity. Take, for example, Eph 2:1–10. The idea is that we had no interest in God (which partly means: no interest in infinite excellence), that we were happily working against his purposes for ever-increasing goodness, excellence, beauty, and truth—and yet God still decided to help us out because he loves us regardless of how we think (or don't think) of him. **There is no begging.** Instead there is repentance, forgiveness, and subsequent awesomeness. But maybe only if the value-domain can have truth-value. Otherwise, what is repentance and forgiveness but mooshy subjective stuff that ultimately boils down to irrational/arational preference? (If you have a better way to "place" them without getting anywhere near the matter of truth, let me know.)
The idea that we are powerless to do anything about the matter is somewhat misleading; Christianity and Judaism hold that God is happy to help if we will have his help. But we tend not to because we want to pursue our own goals—goals which are opposed to God's in any of a number of ways (e.g. pathetic, others-dominating, tolerant of hypocrisy, non-servantlike). In all this, there might be lurking the complaint that we shouldn't have to relate to God in order to grow arbitrarily in wisdom; instead, we should be able to be "autonomous" somehow. That seems absurd to me on a logical level, but perhaps I'm just a brain-damaged theist. (After all, if my theism is false, I clearly don't keep a solid barrier to allow for the cognitive dissonance rationalization; surely then my theism is acting very much like brain damage in my ability to act well in reality, including advancing scientific inquiry.)
The idea that everything bad that happens is our fault is false for every value of "our" other than "all created beings with moral agency". But if we restrict the scope to matters like "How did we let WWI happen?", I think we can take [guilty] responsibility for it in such a way that we make such an event less likely to repeat. Or, we can continue to tell ourselves that most of us are Good People™ and that everything bad that happens is [mostly] a combination of a few Bad Apples™ and Careless Nature™.
I'm happy with physicalism being a class of theories. What concerns me is that maybe it isn't even that. Maybe it's a metaphysic and nothing could falsify it,
Perhaps a better way to describe physicalism is that it's a bet: physicalists like me are betting that, no matter what new phenomena we observe in the future, we will be able to find physical laws that describe them, the way we have found physical laws that describe every phenomenon we've investigated scientifically so far. "Falsifying" this would mean finding some phenomenon that could not be described by any set of physical laws: but how would we ever know?
In other words, scientists can always continue trying to expand our understanding of physical laws as we continue to discover new phenomena. Saying that physicalism is false means saying that they won't always succeed. But practically speaking, what's the difference? We're not going to stop doing science just because some people think physicalism is false. So it will always be possible that we will find laws that describe every new phenomenon we observe; there will never have to be a point at which we just stop.
However, all of this is really irrelevant to the key point of this discussion, which is that, when it comes to our brains and bodies and all the objects we deal with in everyday life, we already have laws that describe all of those phenomena. We have already covered this domain in great detail with experiments. So even if physicalism is false, it doesn't matter for this discussion, because the claim that some new phenomenon, not explainable by our current understanding of the laws that govern electrons, quarks, and the electromagnetic interaction, could be going on in our brains or bodies or the objects we deal with in everyday life, is a much stronger claim than the claim that physicalism is false. It's the claim that induction doesn't work--that we can't generalize from the mountain of experimental data we already have covering this particular domain, and the laws we have built from it, to the belief that those laws will continue to hold in the future in that domain. But if induction doesn't work, we can't do science at all. Indeed we can't even live our everyday lives, since we are continually assuming in our everyday lives that induction works.
who is to say more forces cannot present under new conditions?
The conditions in our brains, bodies, and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life are not "new conditions". They are conditions that have been investigated in great detail already. Saying that "new forces" could somehow arise in this domain is like saying that the Earth's orbit could suddenly change because of some "new force" we didn't know about. It would mean induction didn't work. And if induction doesn't work, all bets are off.
All the fun physics that is going on must be neutralized in order for the Turing machine to operate as a Turing machine. Such neutralization allows for a categorically different kind of causation to happen—to really happen.
What do you mean by this?
why is it important for the psychologist and sociologist to believe this, in order to do the highest quality science in their fields?
I don't know if it is or not. You were the one who was asking for physics to give "guidance" to those other fields. My sense is that knowledge of the fundamental laws is not very useful in these fields. Much more useful is knowledge of the "building blocks" at the next level down below psychology: neurons, hormones, neurotransmitters, etc. All of those things are made of electrons and quarks and electromagnetism, so I don't see what the issue is.
Suppose instead they adopt causal pluralism in their theorizing. If that ends up better explaining human behavior, are they wrong "because physics knows best"?
What does "causal pluralism" mean at this level of theorizing? Psychologists and sociologists don't build models using electrons and quarks and electromagnetism as causal factors to begin with. They build models using entities at a much higher level of organization. As just remarked above, all of the "building blocks" they use at this level are built from the known fundamental entities. But that doesn't mean those entities appear directly as causal factors in their models.
In cases where theorists at this level have tried to postulate "new forces", for example in parapsychology, their models have not survived controlled experimental testing; so if that counts as a test of "causal pluralism" at this level, the test result is that causal pluralism doesn't work.
What do you mean by this?
I should clarify that by "this" I mean "a categorically different kind of causation".
Luke said...
> I don't care whether I "could have done otherwise" in a metaphysical sense.
I suspect people care more about "could have done otherwise" when some tragedy recently happened and it seems like it really was avoidable. Take, for example, the fact of WWI and juxtapose it to all the glorying that was done about Enlightened humankind. Can we see the error of those ways as something which was avoidable? Can we see leaders of the time (intellectual, religious, political) as culpable for telling pretty fairy tales about human nature, in the sense that there was another explanation equally as compelling (recall 'dual rationality')?
> I care whether I am allowed to make my own choices about how to live my life, and whether I'm able to make good choices.
But feeling like you're in control doesn't mean you're in control. How do you differentiate? When it comes to matters of the will, it seems like Dennett's functionalism could exist solely in the subjective level, which is precisely the level which [given the metaphysic probably undergirding this conversation] can be at arbitrary variance with reality. It is very important to drill past appearances. I'm not sure how this interacts with Dennett's functionalism (feel free to point me to some particular book of his).
By the way, there is a pathological way to increase the amount of "freedom" which may be consistent with your understanding of free will: simply weaken the desires of most humans so that they only want what the State is happy to give them, so that the choices of A vs. B which are available to them will not upset the status quo. de Tocqueville predicted such weakening and Charles Taylor thinks exactly that has happened (The Malaise of Modernity, 3–4). I agree; I think the desires of modern man and women are generally pathetic. The titles of Christopher Lasch's two books The Culture of Narcissism: American Life in an Age of Diminishing Expectations and The Minimal Self: Psychic Survival in Troubled Times seem spot-on. I don't see any way to avoid this "pathetic imagination" problem without having a concept of "good" which is not entirely subjective. But then freedom of the will cannot be entirely subjective. Maybe it isn't in Dennett's understanding (and/or yours) and I just need to understand more.
> Or is it determined by you honestly considering both options, using whatever resources are in your brain, and then making a choice?
> You don't think that kind of choice can be a deterministic process? Why not?
See my @Peter: (3/5) comment. As I understand it, determinism either means there are no unstable Lagrangian points and no 'dual rationality', or that the choice of "which way" is 100% random—not willed. In contrast, I say that the way to truly respect another person's freedom is to put him/her in a situation of 'dual rationality' when I disagree, rather than trying everything at my disposal to make the decision come out how I want.
Luke said...
You seem to be presupposing that the only possible kind of explanation which has truth-value is one which is built upon causal monism / monistic determinism / physicalism. This reminds me of a discussion I was having about agent causation a while ago; someone responded that I was proposing hyperdeterminism. It is as if the causal monists have hijacked the terms 'determinism' and 'explanation'. However, the cracks are very present now in the attempts to construct complete, articulate, and therefore restricted descriptions of what science is (any such description will surely cover all possibly discoverable explanation); see for example Penelope Maddy (2007):
>> A deeper difficulty springs from the lesson won through decades of study in the philosophy of science: there is no hard and fast specification of what 'science' must be, no determinate criterion of the form 'x is science iff …'. It follows that there can be no straightforward definition of Second Philosophy along the lines 'trust only the methods of science'. Thus Second Philosophy, as I understand it, isn't a set of beliefs, a set of propositions to be affirmed; it has no theory. Since its contours can't be drawn by outright definition, I resort to the device of introducing a character, a particular sort of idealized inquirer called the Second Philosopher, and proceed by describing her thoughts and practices in a range of contexts; Second Philosophy is then to be understood as the product of her inquiries. (Second Philosophy: A Naturalistic Method, 1)
With your insistence that any causal powers which could possibly be operating at the human scale would be found by the kinds of experiments physicists do, I should think you could do a much better job than Penelope Maddy. Perhaps she has been too beat down by the likes of Paul Feyerabend (Against Method; see especially § Scholarly reception)?
What I don't understand is why you think that a class of infinitesimal forces could not possibly exist which are relevant to the human scale. If consciousness operates at the edge of chaos, why could brain states not pass through the equivalent of unstable Lagrangian points, such that an infinitesimal push (not necessarily quantum) makes the difference between a choice of A vs. B? I know that we're very used to thinking that either things really are deterministic to the core, or that whatever is indeterministic is purely random. But how are those not metaphysical beliefs, rather than scientific beliefs? Here's David Bohm:
>> The assumption that any particular kind of fluctuations are arbitrary and lawless relative to all possible contexts, like the similar assumption that there exists an absolute and final determinate law, is therefore evidently not capable of being based on any experimental or theoretical developments arising out of specific scientific problems, but it is instead a purely philosophical assumption. (Causality and Chance in Modern Physics, 44)
It's still so hard to see you as doing anything other than presupposing reductionism, and doing so rather irresponsibly, given how terribly science does with explaining [self-]consciousness. At what point will the failure of "more of the same" push us to consider alternatives? Note carefully that for alternatives to get off the ground, the stranglehold of reductionism would have to somehow be broken.
Luke said...
> > All the fun physics that is going on must be neutralized in order for the Turing machine to operate as a Turing machine. Such neutralization allows for a categorically different kind of causation to happen—to really happen.
> What do you mean by this?
In a Turing machine, 0's and 1's have causal powers. To the extent that they are merely approximations is the extent to which our conclusions of determinism and reductionism are merely approximations.
> You were the one who was asking for physics to give "guidance" to those other fields.
Yep, I did ask that, because physicists are insisting that those in the human sciences ought to consider monistic determinism to be true. If in fact it makes no difference one way or another, I think that would be a fantastically interesting result.
> > Suppose instead they adopt causal pluralism in their theorizing. If that ends up better explaining human behavior, are they wrong "because physics knows best"?
> What does "causal pluralism" mean at this level of theorizing?
It could mean that the common interface between people is at the level of appearance more than at the level of ontology. This is precisely the opposite of what happens in science. F. A. Hayek has some very interesting discussions of this in Studies on the Abuse and Decline of Reason. In order for explanations to work in differing situations, there needs to be some sort of commonality. One can either assert total commonality in which case you get a monism, or one can assert partial commonality, as in secularism like WP: Secularism § Secular society's "1. Refuses to commit itself as a whole to any one view of the nature of the universe and the role of man in it." + the idea of overlapping consensus. What you have is a set of truly different motivations which sufficiently synchronize with each other to avoid [too much] physical violence. The motivations are treated as truly causal.
> Psychologists and sociologists don't build models using electrons and quarks and electromagnetism as causal factors to begin with. They build models using entities at a much higher level of organization. As just remarked above, all of the "building blocks" they use at this level are built from the known fundamental entities. But that doesn't mean those entities appear directly as causal factors in their models.
Yes, electrons and quarks and EM are distanced from that theorizing via approximations. But even though our confidence in determinism is based on precision & accuracy and it is these things which are neutralized via approximation, you (and plenty of others) still hold that the determinism survives the process of approximation. That determinism Coyne and Carroll want to import into thinking about how humans make decisions isn't there in a scientifically detectable way, because of the necessity of making those approximations. But we are asked to believe in that determinism regardless. That doesn't seem the slightest bit fishy to you?
> In cases where theorists at this level have tried to postulate "new forces", for example in parapsychology, their models have not survived controlled experimental testing; so if that counts as a test of "causal pluralism" at this level, the test result is that causal pluralism doesn't work.
Sure you can always find failed examples, but what of e.g. the placebo effect?
Ron said...
> You must have missed my use of "successive approximation".
I did. So here is my response:
> Why can't theology engage in the kind of successive approximation that is characteristic of science?
Because theology doesn't have any mechanism for objectively correcting errors, no mechanism analogous to experiment, no answer to the Euthyphro dilemma. (See below.)
> the conquering of the Greek empire and collapse of the Roman empire makes it rather clear that something more than just economic factors are required for science to continue ad infinitum
No, that doesn't make it clear at all. Much of the intellectual progress made by Greece and Rome outlived the empires that produced it. And science thrives today despite the collapse of Greco-Roman civilization.
> if scientists have to practice some set of values in order to do science, and have to practice them better/more articulately in order to do the next stage of science (e.g. interdisciplinary), do those values get assigned anything like a truth-value?
No. You could assign a truth-value to the question of whether a value fulfills some objective criterion, like being an evolutionarily stable strategy, or whether it leads to more or less violence or suffering or whatever. But you cannot assign a truth value to a value (we need a better word for this concept). If you could, it would not be a value, it would be a fact. Truth and goodness are mostly orthogonal concepts. Something can be true without being good ("Donald Trump is president") and something can be good without being true ("Justice always prevails").
> Suppose I and those who sufficiently agree with me can take our understanding of Christianity and try and improve the practice of science with it.
You hedged with the word "try". There is no doubt in my mind that you can try. There is a great deal of doubt in my mind that you will succeed. But the way to resolve this question is not to argue about it, but for you to do the experiment and show me the results.
OK, but you're focusing on that one word and missing the point: on Christian theology, we are saved by grace, not deeds. Therefore, our salvation is entirely out of our hands and it doesn't matter what we do (c.f. Rom 9:18-21). That attitude is antithetical to scientific progress.
> The idea that we are powerless to do anything about the matter is somewhat misleading; Christianity and Judaism hold that God is happy to help if we will have his help. But we tend not to because we want to pursue our own goals—goals which are opposed to God's in any of a number of ways (e.g. pathetic, others-dominating, tolerant of hypocrisy, non-servantlike).
Do you not see the circular reasoning here? God will help us as long as we do what He wants. If God isn't helping, it must be because we are not doing what He wants. So how do we know what He wants?
Case in point: it seems to me that God totally endorses dominating others (Deu 6:5, Exo 20:3, Exo 20:12, Mat 22:21, Eph 6:5). Many SI-Christians throughout history have agreed with me, and many (in fact the vast majority) of American Evangelicals endorse this view: today. Evangelicals overwhelmingly support increasing the U.S. military budget, cracking down on immigration, banning abortion, etc. all of which seem to me like "dominating others". So why should I believe you and not them, particularly when the Bible seems to me to endorse their view and not yours?
> The idea that everything bad that happens is our fault is false for every value of "our" other than "all created beings with moral agency".
When I wrote "our" I meant "humans" (wasn't that obvious?) AFAICT Christianity holds that humans are the only beings with moral agency. So I don't understand the point you're trying to make here.
feeling like you're in control doesn't mean you're in control.
True, but "control" is also an ambiguous term. I suspect that to you, the only way for me to "control" what happens to me is to be able to violate the laws of physics. That's not what "control" means to me. To me, "control" means that the causal process that determines what happens to me goes through my brain, and more specifically the "rational" part of my brain, the part that evaluates options according to my best heuristic estimates and decides what to do and directs my actions accordingly. That's the kind of control I care about, and I can have it even if I can't violate the laws of physics.
I'm not sure how this interacts with Dennett's functionalism (feel free to point me to some particular book of his).
Freedom Evolves is his most recent book on free will (it was published in 2003 IIRC). Elbow Room (1984 IIRC) is a shorter and somewhat less developed presentation, but might be a bit more accessible to someone not familiar with his work. Both of those books discuss the concept of "control" as I have described it above.
there is a pathological way to increase the amount of "freedom" which may be consistent with your understanding of free will: simply weaken the desires of most humans so that they only want what the State is happy to give them
This doesn't meet my definition of "control" above, so it doesn't qualify as "freedom" by my definition. That's not to say it can't happen (indeed I think it does happen--not so much by weakening desires in general as by selectively pandering to certain ones and ignoring others, and conditioning people to think of the new set of relative strengths as normal). It's just to say that doing it is not consistent with respecting people's freedom.
The same way you would combat any attempt to influence what happens to you in a way you don't like: by being aware of the possibility and taking reasonable steps against it. It's no different than protecting your computer against malware.
determinism either means there are no unstable Lagrangian points and no 'dual rationality', or that the choice of "which way" is 100% random—not willed.
Equating "random" with "not willed" is a false dichotomy. An algorithm for heuristically evaluating options and making choices could make use of a random number generator and it wouldn't disqualify it as "free will".
I say that the way to truly respect another person's freedom is to put him/her in a situation of 'dual rationality' when I disagree, rather than trying everything at my disposal to make the decision come out how I want.
Saying that the only way to give the other person a genuine free choice is for them to have "dual rationality" is assuming your conclusion. If I can have free will using an algorithm that heuristically evaluates options and makes choices, then so can the other person. As long as I don't try to circumvent the part of their brain that runs that algorithm--just as I want them not to circumvent mine--I'm respecting their freedom. I can give them what I think are valid reasons for one choice vs. another; I just have to let them evaluate those reasons for themselves.
You seem to be presupposing that the only possible kind of explanation which has truth-value is one which is built upon causal monism / monistic determinism / physicalism.
I already told you I was a physicalist. Doesn't that imply that I'm presupposing that?
If you're going to say I shouldn't presuppose it, I should prove it, of course I can't, any more than you can prove the contrary proposition. I'm not a physicalist because I found a logical proof of it. I'm a physicalist because, first, physicalism seems to work--the project of expanding our understanding of physical laws has consistently given us good explanations for new phenomena as we discover them, for at least a few centuries now--and second, because the alternative seems to me to have no predictive power whatsoever, i.e., to not work.
there is no hard and fast specification of what 'science' must be
That's perfectly true. Physicalism didn't come from people specifying in advance that that's what science must be. It came from people discovering that it works: that doing science with physicalism as a methodological assumption pays huge dividends. If philosophers can't figure out how to gerrymander their preconceptions so that it is obvious to them that it would turn out that way, that's their problem. (As you can probably tell, I don't have a lot of use for philosophy as a general rule. Some philosophers, like Dennett, seem to me to be saying useful and important things; but my experience is that they are the exception rather than the rule. I'm not alone in this: many practicing scientists--which I am not, btw--seem to feel the same way. One of Steven Weinberg's books has a whole chapter called "Against Philosophy". Feynman was often eloquent on the subject as well.)
If consciousness operates at the edge of chaos, why could brain states not pass through the equivalent of unstable Lagrangian points
I already answered that: because thermal noise in the brain is too large.
how terribly science does with explaining [self-]consciousness.
That's because science hasn't been studying consciousness very long. Philosophy has been studying it for thousands of years and can't explain it either, so I don't see what gives philosophers any right to point fingers.
At what point will the failure of "more of the same" push us to consider alternatives?
The obvious alternative, the one you are implicitly suggesting, has been pursued for thousands of years. Where has it gotten us? At what point will the failure of "more of the same" of that push us to finally realize that it's not going to get there?
Ah, ok. Now here's a question for you: what are those 0's and 1's made of? If your answer is anything other than "electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic interactions", please explain to me in detail why you think that.
Now here's another question for you: what gives those 0's and 1's the causal powers they have? If your answer is anything other than "the way the electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic interactions are arranged inside the Turing machine", please explain to me in detail why you think that.
And, btw, the answer "a Turing machine is an abstraction" is not responsive. We're not talking about abstract Turing machines. We're talking about real machines that do real work in the real world. You can't make those out of math. You have to make them out of...I think you can fill in the rest here.
physicists are insisting that those in the human sciences ought to consider monistic determinism to be true.
In the sense I already said, yes--that our brains, bodies, and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life, are made out of electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic interactions. And I also pointed out that that still leaves a very wide variety of possibilities, because there are so many fundamental particles and interactions in any ordinary object. So this "insisting" isn't much of a hindrance.
The motivations are treated as truly causal.
Ok, now here's another question for you: what are those motivations made of? Again, if you're tempted to answer that "motivations" are abstract concepts, that answer is not responsive. We're not talking about abstract motivations. We're talking about real motivations of real people in the real world. You can't make those out of abstract concepts. You have to make them out of...do I need to complete the sentence?
What of it? The placebo effect means that people's beliefs can affect their physical bodies. Now here's a question for you: what are their beliefs made of?
Can you see the general pattern here? You keep talking about stuff at higher levels of organization, and I keep reminding you that all of those higher levels of organization are made of the same fundamental building blocks. And that latter statement is all that physicalism says. It doesn't say higher levels of organization can't exist. It doesn't say there can't be descriptions at higher levels of organization in which the relevant causal factors are "motivations" or "0's and 1's" or "placebo effect" instead of electrons and quarks. It just says that all those things, at all those higher levels of organization, are made of the same fundamental building blocks. That's all it says.
our confidence in determinism is based on precision & accuracy and it is these things which are neutralized via approximation
I'm responding to this separately because it actually seems to be getting to a deeper point.
First, our confidence is not in "determinism", but in physicalism--the belief that everything that happens, happens in accordance with physical laws. The precision and accuracy of our predictions based on particular models using our best current understanding of those laws is only one of the reasons for this belief. Here are some others:
The precision and accuracy of predictions based on our models in a particular domain increases over time, as we study the domain in more and more detail. Even with models that have been developed to a very high degree of accuracy, it is still possible to improve it further with more sophisticated experiments. A good recent example is the LIGO observations of gravitational waves, which were predicted decades ago but required extraordinary precision and accuracy in many disciplines to detect. And this is in a discipline, GR, where previous experimental tests had already confirmed some predictions to fourteen decimal places.
When we discover new and expanded laws that cover a domain, they also explain why older laws we had discovered in the same domain worked, to the accuracy that they worked. For example, GR not only makes more accurate predictions about gravitational phenomena than Newtonian gravity, it also explains why Newtonian gravity was able to make predictions to the accuracy that it does make them. In other words, it explains how Newtonian gravity is actually an approximation to GR. Similarly, quantum mechanics explains how classical mechanics is an approximation to it and why that approximation worked well in the domain in which classical mechanics had been observed to work well.
When we can't solve the equations of a model exactly, we can still compute approximate solutions; and as we carry the approximation out to higher and higher orders (meaning, computing more and more terms in the approximation), the results get more and more accurate. (This, btw, is why precision and accuracy are not "neutralized by approximation" in the way you are thinking.) The limits on our predictive power in these cases, in other words, are due to limits on our computing power, not limits in the underlying model.
Luke said...
>> As Vincent Bugliosi laments in Reclaiming History, his recent mammoth study of the JFK assassination, “it takes only one sentence to make the argument that organized crime had Kennedy killed to get his brother, Attorney General Robert Kennedy, off its back, but it takes a great many pages to demonstrate the invalidity of that charge.”[25] (The Last Superstition)
Sometimes your comments about Christianity are like that.
> > Why can't theology engage in the kind of successive approximation that is characteristic of science?
> Because theology doesn't have any mechanism for objectively correcting errors, no mechanism analogous to experiment, no answer to the Euthyphro dilemma. (See below.)
When I look in the OT, I see lots of predictions of "there's gonna be calamity if you continue your current course of action" followed almost exclusively by "no you're full of crap it's peace as far as the eye can see; imprison that pesky prophet" followed by calamity, after which you see: "then they shall know that I am God". That's really important for us to see, because humans just *love* denying that their actions are going to lead to bad places. Just look at all the glorying in how awesome Enlightened man (yes, man) was in the decades leading up to WWI.
If you want to step back from the above—which I know can be dismissed as "well there are old wise men from whom we could still learn a few things"—I can go with the ultimate, which is "Can I get inside the mind of the creator of creation?" After all, God wants our minds to be conformed more to his—Is 55:6–9. Insights into how creation has been designed should yield better ability to act in it, right? That sounds awfully testable to me. For example, if a certain theology leads to better research in the human sciences than any alternative (including the "no theology" option), that would seem to be worthwhile evidence.
As to Euthyphro: how do you propose that humans access the Form of Piety?
> > the conquering of the Greek empire and collapse of the Roman empire makes it rather clear that something more than just economic factors are required for science to continue ad infinitum
> No, that doesn't make it clear at all. Much of the intellectual progress made by Greece and Rome outlived the empires that produced it. And science thrives today despite the collapse of Greco-Roman civilization.
Yes, because we have more than just the right economic factors. Although things seem to be getting a bit iffy in some domains these days.
> > if scientists have to practice some set of values in order to do science, and have to practice them better/more articulately in order to do the next stage of science (e.g. interdisciplinary), do those values get assigned anything like a truth-value?
> No.
So truth is discovered while necessarily depending on non-truth? That makes no sense whatsoever.
> You hedged with the word "try". There is no doubt in my mind that you can try. There is a great deal of doubt in my mind that you will succeed. But the way to resolve this question is not to argue about it, but for you to do the experiment and show me the results.
I didn't hedge, I acted properly in respecting the evidence or in this case, lack thereof. Suppose I get results which show that my trying succeeded. What might you conclude? As good scientists, we ought to make some decisions about how we'll evaluate the evidence before the experiment is run, right?
Luke said...
> OK, but you're focusing on that one word and missing the point:
Actually the "begging" thing is characteristic of "worm theology". For a great display of it, see the Godless in Dixie post Evangelical Christianity and Low Self-Esteem. Or check out the Christian Contemporary Music song Canons, with the lyric "I'm so unworthy, but still You love me". Contrast this to what the Bible actually says, e.g. in Job 40:6–14 or where Jacob wrestled with God, or when Abraham questioned God.
I am focusing on "that one word" because gross misrepresentation happens one word at a time.
> on Christian theology, we are saved by grace, not deeds … That attitude is antithetical to scientific progress.
Sorry, but I don't see the connection between works-based salvation and scientific process. Could you make it a bit more clear? BTW, the Puritans believed they were saved by grace yet worked real hard and Richard Hofstadter describes them this way: "the Puritan clergy came as close to being an intellectual ruling class—or, more properly, a class of intellectuals intimately associated with a ruling power—as America has ever had." (Anti-intellectualism in American Life, 59)
> Do you not see the circular reasoning here? God will help us as long as we do what He wants.
That's not circular reasoning, that's how moral agents act. Do you [intentionally] help people who want to dominate others?
> So how do we know what He wants?
Do you think Mt 20:20–28 is ambiguous? Apparently yes:
> Case in point: it seems to me that God totally endorses dominating others (Deu 6:5, Exo 20:3, Exo 20:12, Mat 22:21, Eph 6:5).
How is Deuteronomy 6:5 an example of domination, especially given the choice God provides in Deut 30:11–20? That doesn't seem like God foisting himself on the Israelites. Oh and if you want to see a "you shall have no gods before me [unless you're brain-damaged]", see this nine minute clip from Neil deGrasse Tyson (transcript). We can deal with the other verses you listed if you want.
> Many SI-Christians throughout history have agreed with me …
Dude, the Bible is harshest on religious leaders who claim to be following YHWH. Those who can claim moral superiority have increased ability to turn evil and be more evil than the surrounding nations. That's just a fact of human nature (or moral agents in society). The big question is whether there are powerful internal resources for critique; if we look at Communism for example, there wasn't much. There was no appeal to Justice; for there was no Justice. There was merely the State. Continued …
Luke said...
> So why should I believe you and not them, particularly when the Bible seems to me to endorse their view and not yours?
Easy: I can show you how they (and you) are cherry-picking scripture. Here's another example. Precious few slaveowners in the American South were Jews. So the only way that Jew-targeting law in the OT would apply to Protestants is if they are "Jews by faith". But then any slave who believes in Jesus would also be a "Jew by faith". That means that Ex 21:2–6 applies: manumission every seventh year, unless the slave really wants to stay a slave. Did those slaveowners obey? No. Because they obviously didn't give a rat's ass about doing so. You see this in spades in the Cornerstone Speech:
>> Our new government is founded upon exactly the opposite idea; its foundations are laid, its corner-stone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery subordination to the superior race is his natural and normal condition. This, our new government, is the first, in the history of the world, based upon this great physical, philosophical, and moral truth.
So much for Jesus being the chief cornerstone. So much for serving others after the pattern of Jesus. No matter how you read the Bible, you cannot read slavery as being anything nearly as central as that speech makes it. So to call those people SI-Christians is equivalent to me lumping you in with the worst 30% of atheists I've ever encountered. That wouldn't be fair to you. It wouldn't be fair to atheists.
> … banning abortion, etc. all of which seem to me like "dominating others".
Seriously, you pick that one as an example of dominating others? At least give Christians credit for sticking up for the little guy—in this case, the very little guy. Even if you don't see certain human organisms as people, give them at least a little bit of credit. You can always criticize Christians for not caring enough about life at all stages (Francis Schaeffer, who arguably got Protestants riled up about what used to be a "Catholic issue", was adamant about this), but even then, Christians do run some crisis pregnancy centers. They could run more.
I get that there is a hypothesis that banning abortion is just another way to keep them women in their place; I agree that it may be rather compelling in some cases. But there is another way to criticize: take their motives at face-value and point out how their actions are really unintelligent because there's a lot of low-hanging fruit they could be picking. If you just psychologize, then you give the other side license to do exactly that—e.g. pick out where welfare is keeping people [rather] poor and say that Democrats really want that to happen so they can have a stable voting bloc. This is the kind of behavior that makes even the semblance of democracy impossible.
> > The idea that everything bad that happens is our fault is false for every value of "our" other than "all created beings with moral agency".
> When I wrote "our" I meant "humans" (wasn't that obvious?) AFAICT Christianity holds that humans are the only beings with moral agency. So I don't understand the point you're trying to make here.
The serpent in the Garden was treated as moral agent. (It can easily symbolize some non-human moral agency.) There is also 1 Cor 6:3a "Do you not know that we are to judge angels?"
Even with models that have been developed to a very high degree of accuracy, it is still possible to improve it further with more sophisticated experiments.
I should add another item here: our understanding of the laws themselves tells us what new phenomena to look for and how to detect them experimentally. LIGO and gravitational waves illustrate that as well. We would never have tried to build LIGO if it weren't for GR's prediction of gravitational waves, and we would never have known how to build it properly without predictions involving many different disciplines about, for example, how strong the waves would be, how to detect signals of the relevant strength, what other sources of noise could hamper their detection, and how to filter out those sources of noise. The progress in particle physics experiments for the last century or so illustrates the same thing.
Luke said...
Since I need to dial back the posting at least for the next few days, I'm going to cherry-pick some things you've said. I'm really tempted to resurrect my quote-tracking software. Anyhow, your answers to the below should help me give better responses to the rest.
> I suspect that to you, the only way for me to "control" what happens to me is to be able to violate the laws of physics.
Nope; I've been very consistent about futzing at unstable Lagrangian points, which requires infinitesimal force and thus is perfectly consonant with the laws of physics. We seem to disagree on this and there some older tangents probably worth resurrecting which bear on this matter.
> The same way you would combat any attempt to influence what happens to you in a way you don't like: by being aware of the possibility and taking reasonable steps against it. It's no different than protecting your computer against malware.
It's not at all like protecting my computer from malware; I can be extremely confident that the initial install had no malware (other than phone-home), I can check the hashes of software I download, and I can always flatten & reinstall. None of these is possible with humans. To make this kind of like protecting your computer against malware, you'd have to have authorities you trust who tell you to stay away from various ideas and people.
> > You seem to be presupposing that the only possible kind of explanation which has truth-value is one which is built upon causal monism / monistic determinism / physicalism.
> I already told you I was a physicalist. Doesn't that imply that I'm presupposing that?
Why, as a physicalist, must you presuppose that the only kind of explanation which could possibly be predictive is one based on causal monism?
> > If consciousness operates at the edge of chaos, why could brain states not pass through the equivalent of unstable Lagrangian points
> I already answered that: because thermal noise in the brain is too large.
Did you see the parenthetical in "an infinitesimal push (not necessarily quantum)"? I understand what warmness does for decoherence times. I'd be happy to try and consult some experts on this matter.
> > At what point will the failure of "more of the same" push us to consider alternatives?
> The obvious alternative, the one you are implicitly suggesting, has been pursued for thousands of years.
I'm not suggesting philosophy as the sole answer. We are the instruments with which we explore reality; philosophy lets us examine those instruments to see if they're operating logically and to see if they are blinding themselves to empirically legitimate possibilities. You still have to then go and observe.
> Ah, ok. Now here's a question for you: what are those 0's and 1's made of?
It doesn't matter, and that's the point. Neutralizing the substrate could easily allow causal powers to manifest which were stuck in the noise beforehand. If this is false, if the 0's and 1's are *just* approximations, then so is the conclusion of determinism. And I only need determinism to be the tiniest bit of an approximation for a dv model of free will to work. Your focus on heuristics makes that door wide enough, if the incompleteness of physics weren't sufficient already.
> So this "insisting" [of determinism] isn't much of a hindrance.
I suspect you're right, but it did allow Coyne to say "nobody could have done otherwise". Guilt is nonsensical if that's true. (Sadness and regret are not the same as guilt.) How does a woman who was raped confront her victimizer if he couldn't have chosen differently?
I've been very consistent about futzing at unstable Lagrangian points, which requires infinitesimal force and thus is perfectly consonant with the laws of physics.
Ah, ok, that clarifies your position. Then I would say that yes, this is consistent with the laws of physics, but whether it is actually possible in a particular case requires looking at the details--in particular, whether there is thermal noise present and what its average energy is as compared to the energy required for the "infinitesimal force". But ultimately this is an empirical question; if something like this is actually going on in the brain, sooner or later we should be able to see it in experiments, once we can make them accurate enough.
It's not at all like protecting my computer from malware
Of course the details are different, because human brains are designed very differently from our current computers. I only meant that, conceptually, any influence on your mental processes that you don't like is the same as malware on your computer, and the general method for dealing with it is the same: be aware that it's out there and take steps to deal with it.
To make this kind of like protecting your computer against malware, you'd have to have authorities you trust who tell you to stay away from various ideas and people.
You don't need to do that to protect against malware. You just need to exercise common sense precautions, which boil down to: don't run untrusted code with too many privileges. (The question of what code you can trust is, of course, interesting: my answer to that is to run Linux on all my home computers, since it's open source and I can control what's running and what privileges it has. I don't have a choice about work computers, but that's my employer's problem, not mine.)
The equivalent of that for protecting your mind against malware is the same: don't "run" untrusted information with too many privileges. You don't need an authority to tell you what information is to be considered untrusted; in fact having such an authority is in itself a possible malware risk. Yes, I know we humans are social animals and we evolved to give basically root privileges to information coming from certain sources (parents, teachers, priests, etc.); but I view that as a bug in the human cognitive system, not a feature. :-)
Why, as a physicalist, must you presuppose that the only kind of explanation which could possibly be predictive is one based on causal monism?
You're the one who keeps dragging in the term "causal monism". I'm not even sure I know what it means. Physicalism is just what I said: the belief that everything that happens, happens in accordance with physical laws. If that means "causal monism", then ok, it's causal monism, but I don't see the point of having two different terms that both mean the same thing.
If "causal monism" means what I've been saying about how our brains and bodies and all the objects in our everyday life are made of electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic interactions, that's not a presupposition, it's an experimental fact. Our theories tell us that because our theories have been tested against experimental facts, not because we assumed it to begin with. Physicalism itself doesn't tell you what the physical laws are, or even what kind of laws they are. You have to find that out by scientific investigation, as I've already said.
Also, the only "causal monism" in this latter sense that I've been asserting is for our brains and bodies and all the objects in our everyday life. I have never claimed "causal monism" in this sense for the entire universe--that is, I've never claimed that the entire universe is made of electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic interactions. Of course that is false, and I've explicitly said so, though that was quite a while back now in this discussion. We don't even know for sure that we have observed and modeled all of the particles and interactions that are present in the universe as a whole, because we don't know what dark matter is and we don't know what dark energy is; we just know their basic phenomenology.
I must have missed whatever parenthetical you are referring to here.
I understand what warmness does for decoherence times.
If we're not talking about a quantum process, then decoherence times are irrelevant; we're approximating the workings of our brains and bodies and all the objects in our everyday lives as classical. My claim about thermal noise was based on that classical treatment. It is true that thermal noise can also make quantum uncertainty irrelevant, but the thermal noise in the brain is much larger than the level needed to do that; it's large enough to make plenty of classical processes on small enough energy scales unrealizable--at least, that's my belief based on my best understanding of the energy scales involved.
Neutralizing the substrate could easily allow causal powers to manifest which were stuck in the noise beforehand.
Huh? This is backwards. The causal powers of 0s and 1s, in a physically implemented Turing machine, are much narrower than the causal powers of the physical thing it is implemented it on. Implementing a Turing machine on, for example, a bunch of transistors doesn't amplify noise in the transistors; it throws away a lot of noise by coarse-graining the zillions of possible microstates of a particular physical bit into two buckets, "0" and "1". The causal powers of the 0s and 1s are then just the restricted causal powers of the two subspaces of the state space corresponding to those two bit values, which is a very small subset of the causal powers of the underlying physical device.
if the 0's and 1's are *just* approximations
They're not; they're coarse-grained subspaces of the underlying state space. See above.
"nobody could have done otherwise". Guilt is nonsensical if that's true.
It depends on what you mean by "guilt". We've been around this merry-go-round before.
How does a woman who was raped confront her victimizer if he couldn't have chosen differently?
It depends on what you mean by "chosen". We've been around this merry-go-round before.
It also depends on why the woman wants to confront the rapist.
Luke said...
Ok, here's another brief response; I know I'm almost certainly going to miss/ignore things. I'm building up motivation to rewrite that quote-tracking software, especially since you've pointed out some possible looping (repeating something discussed before to sufficient approximation to worry that we're stuck in a Poincaré recurrence).
> But ultimately this [infinitesimal force thing] is an empirical question; if something like this is actually going on in the brain, sooner or later we should be able to see it in experiments, once we can make them accurate enough.
Yep. As I said before, "I'm rather pragmatic at heart." If I cannot see how an idea touches down in reality, I have an incredibly hard time understanding it. I had to drop out university because of that; it's probably one of the most theory-centric universities in the world and I couldn't hack it in the rarefied air of symbol-land.
Now, as it comes to this issue, I suspect one might need to employ both nonseparable causation (nonseparable state ⇔ nonseparable causation) and weak measurement if not interaction-free measurement. I can go into the reasons later, but suffice it to say that any equivalents of Lagrangian points in human thinking near the edge of chaos are almost certainly going to be spread out in space, rather than being a spacecraft flying through a point.
> > It's not at all like protecting my computer from malware
> Of course the details are different
Pretty much everything is different. See for example virus definition files, which you regularly download from an authority. The closest you got was sandboxing but even that doesn't really work because there's no "what if" mode. I can keep going if you want. Also, you didn't address the key issue that humans don't start in a "known good state", while computers can (and that's absolutely key for anti-virus to work—otherwise you can have a rootkit).
> You're the one who keeps dragging in the term "causal monism". I'm not even sure I know what it means. Physicalism is just what I said: the belief that everything that happens, happens in accordance with physical laws.
Wait a second, you wrote ""monistic determinism" (which I would call "physicalism")" in response. The obvious alternative to causal monism is that there isn't just one set of physical laws in operation. Different laws can be active at different times and in different places. We do know that there is a terrific amount that is common, and that is of course key to intersubjectivity. But I don't see why explanations can only be predictive if causal monism is true. Ceteris Paribus Laws seem like they'd work just fine with causal pluralism.
> The causal powers of 0s and 1s, in a physically implemented Turing machine, are much narrower than the causal powers of the physical thing it is implemented it on.
I'm not sure what "narrower" means, given my excerpt of Noam Chomsky. What can't Turing Machines compute or do?
> It depends on what you mean by "guilt". We've been around this merry-go-round before.
I would like to better understand how the term 'guilt' changes on Coyne- and Carroll-CFW.
See for example virus definition files, which you regularly download from an authority.
I don't. I run an operating system (Linux) that was designed from the ground up to be secure, instead of having security bolted on as an afterthought, like another popular operating system that I won't name :-). On a Linux system, the common sense precautions I suggested (basically, don't run untrusted code with too many privileges), are sufficient. That's one of the reasons I run Linux: because I don't want to have to trust any other "authority" with root privileges on my computer, and that's what having an anti-virus program running amounts to.
humans don't start in a "known good state"
That's true, but I already said the details are different. The analogy I was making was at a much higher level.
you wrote ""monistic determinism" (which I would call "physicalism")" in response.
That was a best guess on my part, based on what I thought you meant by "monistic determinism". Based on your statements here, I might have been mistaken; see below.
The obvious alternative to causal monism is that there isn't just one set of physical laws in operation.
I'm not sure what you mean by this. Do the four fundamental interactions we know of (gravity, electromagnetism, weak, strong) count as different sets of physical laws? If they do, then we're talking about the same model, just using different words.
If they don't, then what happens when things obeying different physical laws interact? The physicalist answer is: you have physical laws describing the interaction. Which means you no longer have different sets of physical laws. You have one set, which can include different subsets with laws about their interactions.
I don't see any other coherent alternatives than the ones above. Were you thinking of one of those, or of something else?
Ceteris Paribus Laws seem like they'd work just fine with causal pluralism.
It depends on what you mean by "causal pluralism". For example, Newton's Laws are ceteris paribus laws; we know that now that we have GR and can see the limits of the domain of validity of Newton's Laws. Does that mean that, if we use Newton's Laws to calculate the trajectory of an artillery shell or a satellite, we are adopting "causal pluralism"? If so, you and I are talking about the same model, just using different words.
If not, then can you give me a concrete example of what you mean by "causal pluralism"?
What can't Turing Machines compute or do?
We're not talking about Turing machines. We're talking about the physical devices that implement Turing Machines. Those devices can obviously do lots of things (radiate heat, make noise, have fluctuating EM fields inside their storage units) that the Turing Machines they implement can't do.
I would like to better understand how the term 'guilt' changes on Coyne- and Carroll-CFW.
This is probably too much for a discussion thread, but the basic idea (which Dennett, for example, briefly explains in his review of Waller's book, linked earlier in this discussion) is that, on a physicalist account of free will and morality, "guilt" is part of an agreement that people can make and assent to in order to enjoy the benefits of living in a civilized society. So it's not a property that you can just "read off" from a physical description, or evaluate by looking at physical laws.
Luke said...
> I run an operating system (Linux) that was designed from the ground up to be secure
Ah, ok. I am used to Linux folks talking about protecting their computers from malware. Now, do you verify the hashes of binaries you download? Do you use SSL to download binaries? Do you have root certificates installed? I'll bet you still trust authorities, albeit not for virus definitions. True object-capability security is cool, though.
> > humans don't start in a "known good state"
> That's true, but I already said the details are different. The analogy I was making was at a much higher level.
That's fine; I'm just saying your analogy has a serious flaw. It therefore doesn't clean up the mess I pointed to, which originally provoked it. Things are not sufficiently simple; if they were, we (the US, the world) wouldn't be in the mess we are. It's kind of like landing inside an asteroid, not realizing that you've actually flown into the maw of a giant space creature. It seems preferable to have ways to detect whether one is not actually on solid ground.
> > The obvious alternative to causal monism is that there isn't just one set of physical laws in operation.
> I'm not sure what you mean by this.
It happens all the time in society: different people live by different rules and they cannot be perfectly reconciled. Sometimes alignment is brought by violence, sometimes misalignment continues until death. This doesn't mean one cannot characterize the rules of one person and compare them to the rules of another. And so, one can have explanations in causal pluralism—nothing I just said depends one whit upon reductionism or rigid determinism.
> If they don't, then what happens when things obeying different physical laws interact?
I don't have anything like a systematic answer to this; what I can say is that people who follow different rules (not physical laws) interact all the time; sometimes well, sometimes disastrously, and sometimes like ships sailing past each other in the night. Note that there is no need for the physical laws to be disjoint; if physical law is as the empirical evidence warrants (IMO) and the way I exert infinitesimal forces is different from how you do (yes I'm presupposing a dv model of free will for this point), that seems like something that could plausibly happen in a shared reality.
> I don't see any other coherent alternatives than the ones above.
There's actually a longstanding problem in philosophy/psychology/theology/post-modernism about how to interact with "the Other", if it's even possible. That concern is understandable if any understanding requires complete uniformity—and I suspect something like that was presupposed by 'Reason' in the Enlightenment. But I see no reason that this is necessarily the case. You just need enough of a common interface (of some sort) and the ability/willingness to stretch beyond your current box.
> We're not talking about Turing machines. We're talking about the physical devices that implement Turing Machines. Those devices can obviously do lots of things (radiate heat, make noise, have fluctuating EM fields inside their storage units) that the Turing Machines they implement can't do.
Granted. But if you don't neutralize enough of those things, you can't get functional computation—or for humans, thought. And once you do enough neutralization, I see no reason to not suppose that causal powers can manifest which were dwarfed by the four forces of physics beforehand. I'm basically arguing the inverse of supercooling atoms to get Bose-Einstein condensates and such. I'm also riffing on Robert Laughlin's idea that the laws of nature are collective behaviors of an underlying substrate.
> "guilt" is part of an agreement that people can make
That sounds a little social contract-ish, in all its fictional glory.
If they don't come through my distro's package manager, most definitely. (If they do come through the package manager, the package manager is doing this.)
Do you use SSL to download binaries?
Yes. (Technically, most of the time it's my distro's package manager that is using SSL, but it comes to the same thing.)
Do you have root certificates installed?
The ones my distro provides, yes. And yes, that is an additional trust relationship that needs to be taken into account. Fortunately, it's extremely rare that I have to install anything that doesn't come through my distro's package manager, and if I do, it will be from somewhere that I have other reasons to believe is reliable. (One good reason not to believe a source is reliable is not providing hashes for binaries, obtainable using a secure channel.) The distro's package manager itself will only download from the particular sources the distro provides.
It happens all the time in society: different people live by different rules and they cannot be perfectly reconciled.
So to you, "physical laws" means "rules that people in society choose to live by"? I'm sorry, but to me this is an egregious abuse of terminology, and it makes it difficult for me to have a discussion at all. By "physical laws" I mean physical laws--the fundamental laws that govern electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic interactions. (And others, but those are the only ones that are relevant for this discussion, for reasons which I've already stated multiple times.) If you're not willing to use the term that way, I'll just have to bow out of any discussion with you that relies on it.
if you don't neutralize enough of those things, you can't get functional computation
Excuse me? You mean that unless I stop the computer I'm using from radiating heat, making noise, and having fluctuations of fields in its storage units, I can't be typing this? That's obviously ridiculous. Are you really thinking about what you're saying?
What you might be trying to say is that the "computation" part of the device has to ignore all these things. That's true. But what you said certainly seemed like a much stronger statement than that. "Ignore" doesn't mean "neutralize".
I'm basically arguing the inverse of supercooling atoms to get Bose-Einstein condensates and such.
I don't understand how this would work. The inverse of supercooling would be warming the atoms up, which destroys collective behavior like Bose-Einstein condensation. It doesn't create some other kind of collective behavior; it just makes the atoms act like an ordinary classical thermal state.
I'm also riffing on Robert Laughlin's idea that the laws of nature are collective behaviors of an underlying substrate.
I'll have to read the Laughlin links you gave earlier. My initial impression is that you are misinterpreting something he said.
Ron said...
> So truth is discovered while necessarily depending on non-truth? That makes no sense whatsoever.
Why not? Discovering the truth is hard. It requires work. So truth is discovered mainly by people who believe that truth has value. Not everyone believes that. Donald Trump, for example, believes the exact opposite, that truth is harmful. And relative to the things that he values, like his personal power and influence, he's probably right.
> As to Euthyphro: how do you propose that humans access the Form of Piety?
You've missed the point. I didn't cite Euthyphro to talk about Form of Piety. I cited Euthyphro to ask the question: is it good because God says so, or does God say so because it is good? (And to make the point that religion has no answer to this question.)
> Suppose I get results which show that my trying succeeded. What might you conclude?
Dunno. Depends on what the results are. The devil is in the details.
> Actually the "begging" thing is characteristic of "worm theology".
Which many SI-Christians subscribe to.
> I am focusing on "that one word" because gross misrepresentation happens one word at a time.
You'll have to take that up with your fellow Christians. I am only repeating what I have been told.
> I don't see the connection between works-based salvation and scientific process.
See above about truth requiring effort to discover, and therefore being discovered mainly by people who believe truth is valuable. If you believe that your salvation lies entirely in the hands of God and that your actions will not influence the outcome there is less motivation to work hard to find the truth. Reading the Bible and praying for forgiveness is all the truth you need. Then you just hang on until you die, at which point you claim your eternal reward at the Right Hand of God.
I am not making this up. Millions of people really do believe this.
Ron said...
@Luke (2/2):
> Do you think Mt 20:20–28 is ambiguous?
I don't, no. But I look at the world and I see Donald Trump, who does not seem to me to be conducting his affairs (no pun intended) in accordance with these words, but nonetheless enjoys overwhelming support among those who self-identify as Christians. Somewhere between Mt 20:20-28 and the actions of the vast majority of those who profess to believe that these are the Words of God there seems to me to be a really big disconnect. Your quarrel is not with me, it is with them. And my question to you is: how do you resolve this disagreement? That is the question to which I say religion has no answer.
Because we are commanded to love God whether or not he deserves it. (And in this God seems to me very much like Donald Trump.)
Love God or die. That's not a choice, that's an ultimatum. (And again, in this God seems very much like Donald Trump.)
> Dude, the Bible is harshest on religious leaders who claim to be following YHWH.
Says you. They will say that they are doing God's work. Again: how do you resolve this difference of opinion?
> Easy: I can show you how they (and you) are cherry-picking scripture.
But they can do the same, because you are cherry-picking too. You focus on Matthew 20, they focus on Matthew 5:18 and Leviticus. Potato, potahto.
> Seriously, you pick that one as an example of dominating others?
> At least give Christians credit for sticking up for the little guy—in this case, the very little guy.
I would if their actions were consistent with wanting to stick up for the little guy, but they aren't. If they really wanted to stick up for the little guy they'd be advocating birth control, real sex education, better support for adoption, including supporting gay adoptions. They would be advocating universal health care and free education. But they do not do these things. They focus their efforts almost exclusively on *criminalizing abortion*. That is more consistent with a motive of wanting to use reproductive rights as a lever to dominate women than it is wanting to "stick up for the little guy."
> I get that there is a hypothesis that banning abortion is just another way to keep them women in their place
Not just a hypothesis. There is overwhelming *evidence* that this is their true motive.
> The serpent in the Garden was treated as moral agent.
And you believe that actually happened? A talking snake? Seriously?
Luke said...
I really do need to get back to bits I haven't addressed, but this is so … addicting.
> If they don't come through my distro's package manager, most definitely. (If they do come through the package manager, the package manager is doing this.)
So as it turns out, you do trust an authority when it comes to how you avoid malware. (Just not for virus definition files.) This is another point of disanalogy between avoiding malware and avoiding subconscious manipulation. At this point I'm afraid I don't find any of your answer compelling:
> Peter: The same way you would combat any attempt to influence what happens to you in a way you don't like: by being aware of the possibility and taking reasonable steps against it. It's no different than protecting your computer against malware.
It's really very little like protecting your computer against malware. (Let me note that you're rigorous on me when it comes to talking about physics.) The rest is rather vague.
Free will that is not resilient to subconscious manipulation is, IMO, not really worth having. I think it's too easy to end up being a pawn of others without realizing it. In fact I suspect that has been done to a great swath of humanity. It's kind of like depriving a child of an excellent education—the child may never know the grievous harm which has been done. We end up settling for something pathetic and to be honest, plenty of humans get stepped on to even get there.
> So to you, "physical laws" means "rules that people in society choose to live by"?
No. I was demonstrating that causal pluralism allows for intelligible explanations. There was a tremendous amount of intelligibility before humans started positing physical laws. If your physicalism prevents you from acknowledging this, your physicalism has an adequacy-to-reality problem.
> You mean that unless I stop the computer I'm using from radiating heat, making noise, and having fluctuations of fields in its storage units, I can't be typing this?
Sorry, I meant to draw in all the complexity of the causal powers explored by physics when I said that much of it has to be neutralized. And yes, that pretty much means EM unless you need radiation hardness for spaceflight or incredible robustness. It is by greatly restricting what is allowed to happen that you can get new behavior. I'm not talking just "ignore".
> I don't understand how this would work. The inverse of supercooling would be warming the atoms up, which destroys collective behavior like Bose-Einstein condensation. It doesn't create some other kind of collective behavior; it just makes the atoms act like an ordinary classical thermal state.
Read up on the von Klitzing effect, aka the integer quantum hall effect. It's been shown to happen at room temperature in graphene. You seem to have some odd (to me—maybe they're 100% scientific) ideas on what the only conditions could possibly be for infinitesimal forces to act near the equivalents of Lagrangian points; I'm trying to get you to either convince me of that or back down on your confidence. But of course that's up to you.
> I'll have to read the Laughlin links you gave earlier. My initial impression is that you are misinterpreting something he said.
If you end up correcting me, thank you. If you end up calling Laughlin stupid, I'll be skeptical. If I end up being right and reasonable, perhaps you will give me a little more credit going forward.
So as it turns out, you do trust an authority when it comes to how you avoid malware.
You're equivocating on the meaning of "authority". I don't trust my Linux distro as an "authority" in the sense of believing whatever they tell me and assuming without evidence that the bits they send me are safe. I trust my Linux distro because I have good evidence that the bits they send me are safe. (That evidence, btw, includes the availability of source code.) And when I see evidence that the bits might not be safe, I switch distros. I've done this several times over the years (I've been running Linux since about 2002, and exclusively on my home computers since 2005.) In fact, even evidence that the bits my distro is sending me are less convenient for me is enough for me to switch distros, well before any kind of security risk.
Free will that is not resilient to subconscious manipulation is, IMO, not really worth having.
"Resilient" is not the same as "immune". You seem to be wanting "immune". You can't have that, at least not in the real world.
What's more, even if "resilient" is sufficient, I don't see how your "delta v" model gives you any more resilience than a deterministic random number generator inside your brain would. So I don't see why you are so invested in that particular model.
I meant to draw in all the complexity of the causal powers explored by physics when I said that much of it has to be neutralized.
I'm afraid I still don't follow, and your use of language makes me pessimistic about the chances that I will be able to.
Read up on the von Klitzing effect, aka the integer quantum hall effect. It's been shown to happen at room temperature in graphene.
Sure. And high temperature superconductivity exists too. None of which addresses the point I was making. There is still a threshold temperature for all of these phenomena, above which they no longer occur. Which means that raising the temperature will make all of these effects go away. But you used the word "inverse", which to me means you're saying raising the temperature will somehow enable some other similar effect (though again it's hard for me to tell because of the way you are using language), which is not what any of the actual evidence suggests.
You seem to have some odd (to me—maybe they're 100% scientific) ideas on what the only conditions could possibly be for infinitesimal forces to act near the equivalents of Lagrangian points
It seems obvious to me. The general principle is that any force used to control something must be larger (preferably much larger) than any random forces the thing is subjected to.
In the case of a spacecraft at an unstable Lagrange point, the control force is the spacecraft's engine and the random forces are things like micrometeroid impacts, the solar wind, etc. There is also some amount of uncertainty in the exact position of the craft or in the calculations of the orbit based on the positions of the Sun and planets. All of those effects are much smaller than the engine force.
In the case of the brain, the control force is whatever is driving cognition--neural firings, for example--and the random forces are thermal fluctuations at a temperature of 310 K. The things driving cognition are ultimately chemical reactions, so the energies associated with them are typical chemical reaction energies, which are roughly two to three orders of magnitude larger than thermal energy at 310 K.
You've only waved your hands about what sort of force would count as the "infinitesimal delta v" you've been talking about, but the very word "infinitesimal" suggests that it would be very small. Your use of the spacecraft example gives a way of estimating how small: the energy associated with the rocket burn, compared to the total orbital energy (kinetic plus potential) of the craft. This ratio is going to be much, much smaller than two or three orders of magnitude. That tells me that the "infinitesimal delta v" model is not a good way of thinking about how free will might work in the brain.
I'll have to read the Laughlin links you gave earlier.
And there is a Kindle edition of his book, so Luke, you just added another item to my reading list. :-)
Indeed, in FQXi: Fluctuations in de Sitter Space he explicitly argues against down-fluctuations in entropy at the quantum level, on the basis that there is no [further] microstructure which can thusly fluctuate.
No, that's not what he's saying. The paper he was describing in that talk is here:
The tl/dr is that, according to his model (which, btw, is not mainstream, it's just one proposal in an area where there currently is no mainstream theory), when we do quantum field theory in de Sitter spacetime, a thermal state is stationary--i.e., there is no time dependence, not even at the micro level. This is in sharp contrast to an ordinary "Boltzmann" thermal state, which if it is in thermodynamic equilibrium is time independent at the macro level--the thermodynamic variables like temperature and pressure don't change--but is time dependent at the micro level.
But the difference between these two cases has nothing to do with there being "no further microstructure to fluctuate" in the quantum de Sitter case. In both cases thermodynamics is formulated the same way: you coarse grain over microstates that all have the same values for macroscopic thermodynamic variables like temperature.
Luke said...
> > So truth is discovered while necessarily depending on non-truth? That makes no sense whatsoever.
> Why not? Discovering the truth is hard. It requires work. So truth is discovered mainly by people who believe that truth has value. Not everyone believes that.
I don't think you've understood my point. I'm not talking about valuing truth, I'm talking about qualities of the instrument which is used to discover truth. That instrument is fractal: it is the scientist, but it's also the sub-discipline, but it's also scientists at large, but it's also society at large because that's where the money comes from and that actually matters quite a lot. Bad instruments lead to bad measurements, or just completely not measuring parts of reality. The qualities of the instrument aren't themselves a correspondence to reality "out there", but if the instruments are in bad shape, that is harmful for discovering truth.
> > As to Euthyphro: how do you propose that humans access the Form of Piety?
> You've missed the point. I didn't cite Euthyphro to talk about Form of Piety. I cited Euthyphro to ask the question: is it good because God says so, or does God say so because it is good? (And to make the point that religion has no answer to this question.)
Actually, I just took the reference to Euthyphro quite seriously and since you gave precious little detail, I had no other good option. To your more articulate version, I'll point out that if God created us, either there are rules on what we can believe regardless of his powers, or he could make us believe whatever he wants about the good. If the former, then there is a Form of Piety which restricts God. If the latter, your question is rendered irrelevant on an epistemic level.
> > Suppose I get results which show that my trying succeeded. What might you conclude?
> Dunno. Depends on what the results are. The devil is in the details.
I see; is my "As good scientists, we ought to make some decisions about how we'll evaluate the evidence before the experiment is run, right?" 100% wrong?
> > Actually the "begging" thing is characteristic of "worm theology".
> Which many SI-Christians subscribe to.
So? Your "our only recourse is to fall on our knees and beg for the benevolence of a non-existent deity" was not qualified to a "many" which could easily fall below the majority. Were I to mouth off about "what atheist do" or "what atheists say", you'd be well within your rights to ask me to specify if those statements are not known to be good generalizations of most (the vast majority of?) atheists.
> > I am focusing on "that one word" because gross misrepresentation happens one word at a time.
> You'll have to take that up with your fellow Christians. I am only repeating what I have been told.
I can do that, but you don't get to hide behind them like a shield.
> If you believe that your salvation lies entirely in the hands of God and that your actions will not influence the outcome there is less motivation to work hard to find the truth.
I'm a counterexample to that, in the flesh. And then there is Richard Hofstadter's analysis of the Puritans, which I quoted above. Indeed, I would wager a guess that I believe there is more truth to be found than you, because I think the human sciences are more worth consulting than apparently you do. And I apparently feel more compelled to expend the requisite energy to go find it than you, at least based on our last in-person conversation.
> I am not making this up. Millions of people really do believe this.
Have I ever denied that?
Luke said...
We've been on the SI merry-go-round multiple times; what's going on underneath? You seem to have ignored this bit:
> Luke: When I look in the OT, I see lots of predictions of "there's gonna be calamity if you continue your current course of action" followed almost exclusively by "no you're full of crap it's peace as far as the eye can see; imprison that pesky prophet" followed by calamity, after which you see: "then they shall know that I am God". That's really important for us to see, because humans just *love* denying that their actions are going to lead to bad places. Just look at all the glorying in how awesome Enlightened man (yes, man) was in the decades leading up to WWI.
There is also the following:
> Switching from the 'fact' to the 'value' side of the dichotomy, perhaps we need to revisit my "Goodness itself has a predictive aspect, but not in the analytic fashion that allows you to write out deterministic equations."—from the thread which inspired this blog post.
You also ignored that. It's like you really, really, really don't want to categorize SI-Christians according to their causal powers, even though that is the *essence* of scientific analysis. I get that dealing with predictions in this realm is much harder than the hard sciences. But unless you want to be like Elon Musk and build technology while trying to ignore the human element as much as possible, you're gonna have to deal with it. Or I guess, go inactive like you claim those people who believe in salvation by grace alone do. (I have no idea how *I* manage to be so active, apparently care more about the human sciences than you, etc. Actually I think I do, but it clashes head-on with your model.)
I'm also sensing that you don't have much of a sense as to the power of internal criticism over external (read Charles Taylor's Explanation and Practical Reason; it's just essay-length), or at least the power of being somewhat intelligent in pointing out contradictions. (I learned that lesson in middle school—there are plenty of contradictions people don't care about, and it might not be completely irrational to behave that way given the hardness if not impossibility of being contradiction-free.) I'm reminded of your desire to see me discuss with a certain class of SI-Christians.
Perhaps it would be helpful to look at what the science says, and perhaps what wise people have said over the ages, about what seems to really motivate people. My contention about Christianity is that it's not just a bundle of hypothetical imperatives and abstract myths, such that motivation can easily happen "as if God exists" precisely as well as "if God truly exists". (I suspect the OT's treatment of idols is meant to get at the difference here, which may only show up after multiple generations—hence my focus on prediction, above.) How about we take our pretty little ideas about motivation and let reality grind off the stupid bits? And maybe we can consider that there are wise people throughout the ages who have figured out some things. Then we can take that and come back to issues like analyzing the motivations of Trump voters.
Luke said...
> Somewhere between Mt 20:20-28 and the actions of the vast majority of those who profess to believe that these are the Words of God there seems to me to be a really big disconnect.
That's probably true since Jesus died on the cross. It's tremendously hard to accomplish—it requires rigorous standards for leaders and followers. But surely you realize that political liberalism is built on that ideal.
> Because we are commanded to love God whether or not he deserves it.
Anyone who didn't want to love YHWH could leave. Are you suggesting that it is always wrong to make any significant values required for citizenship?
> Love God or die. That's not a choice, that's an ultimatum.
But anyone was allowed to question God and go his/her own way. They weren't required to believe God and in fact, eventually almost nobody did. Then they got carried off into exile. Some made the connection, most didn't.
> > Dude, the Bible is harshest on religious leaders who claim to be following YHWH.
> Says you. They will say that they are doing God's work. Again: how do you resolve this difference of opinion?
I would point to Jesus' words to the Pharisees, Ezek 34, and the fact of the Reformation.
> > The serpent in the Garden was treated as moral agent.
> And you believe that actually happened? A talking snake? Seriously?
I guess I should discount the Caltech physics I took which dealt with "spherical cows". I mean, seriously?
Luke said...
Argh, here's a "I don't think I'm as brain-damaged as you seem to be implying" comment.
> You're equivocating on the meaning of "authority". I don't trust my Linux distro as an "authority" in the sense of believing whatever they tell me and assuming without evidence that the bits they send me are safe.
And the use of virus definitions involves blind faith with no decisions based on track record? (If you say that some do, I'll say some blindly trust distros and we'll be back at square one.) My original points stands: there is great disanalogy between protecting against malware and protecting against subconscious manipulation. Probably the greatest point of disanalogy has nothing to do with the authority thing, and everything to do with the fact that (i) one does not start in a "known good state"; (ii) one cannot perform a flatten & reinstall. We could talk about whether a rootkit would want you to accept a deterministic model of free will.
> "Resilient" is not the same as "immune". You seem to be wanting "immune". You can't have that, at least not in the real world.
Nope, I don't think "immune" is an option. What is needed is an ability to model the situation one is in arbitrarily well, so that after enough data collection, one can effect an alteration in course. One also needs enough low-entropy energy and there might be multiple kinds of this (e.g. motivational energy—see last paragraph). I don't see how a deterministic model of free will can guarantee these things. Indeed, it seems like rather the opposite—it seems like the kind of thing a rootkit would want us to believe. Or simulators who want to use us as predictive models to get their way in the real world.
> > Indeed, in FQXi: Fluctuations in de Sitter Space he explicitly argues against down-fluctuations in entropy at the quantum level, on the basis that there is no [further] microstructure which can thusly fluctuate.
> No, that's not what he's saying. The paper he was describing in that talk is here:
From the abstract:
>> We argue that, under certain plausible assumptions, de Sitter space settles into a quiescent vacuum in which there are no dynamical quantum fluctuations. Such fluctuations require either an evolving microstate, or time-dependent histories of out-of-equilibrium recording devices, which we argue are absent in stationary states.
Carroll denies the existence of any such "evolving microstate": "I've also assumed the Everett formulation of quantum mechanics; I'm thinking that the quantum state is the physical thing; there's no sort of hidden variable underneath." And these "out-of-equilibrium recording devices" aren't part of the system. In contrast, the macro-state of entropy in thermodynamics is based on an evolving micro-state of particles; because of the statistical nature of the measurement, entropy not infrequently fluctuates slightly downwards, for short periods of time.
> In both cases thermodynamics is formulated the same way …
I wasn't talking about thermodynamics in both cases. In his FQXi talk, Carroll makes an analogy:
That's why I wrote "entropy at the quantum level". Now, I realize I could have been more precise, but I sense that you think I kinda suck at physics and therefore couldn't possibly have had a valid point. If you still think I'm being brain-damaged on this point after my clarification, I'll go consult some physicists and report back.
Luke said...
Here's another summary post. Thank for this great conversation on free will; I've gotten much further with you than with anyone else. Then again, I'm making use of great advances I made with other folks—standing on the shoulders of giants. I'd like to start off by re-excerpting David Bohm:
>> The assumption that any particular kind of fluctuations are arbitrary and lawless relative to all possible contexts, like the similar assumption that there exists an absolute and final determinate law, is therefore evidently not capable of being based on any experimental or theoretical developments arising out of specific scientific problems, but it is instead a purely philosophical assumption. (Causality and Chance in Modern Physics, 44)
I am very insistent that I am not trying to deny anything that physicists have discovered in experiment. What I contend is that physics is not known to be complete, that there could be further order, and that pace Carroll, that further order could easily be relevant to everyday life. I insist that if there are going to be infinitesimal (not small Δv, but dv) forces which can introduce additional order to reality, we must find the right conditions in which to allow them to manifest. That means carefully balancing the non-infinitesimal forces so that they do not drown out the infinitesimal forces. Such balancing I have described as "neutralizing". The term "neutralizing" here means "to render causally impotent". It's not like EM stops operating, it just becomes irrelevant to the phenomena under investigation—one can "ignore" it.
Now, I admit that I don't have well-developed ideas for how one can carry out the equivalent to spacecraft micro-thrusts at Lagrangian points when it comes to brain states near the edge of chaos. But is that because such a thing is physically impossible, or is that because we have not been asking those questions? I think it's important to remember that the atomic theory of matter was not seen as realistic by many until Brownian motion was derived. If you're going to treat me like venture capitalists treat prospects—show us you can build the thing by showing us a built thing and then we'll give you money—then I may be guaranteed to fail. But you'll also be enacting a behavior which would have made it harder to develop atomic theory. If you can demonstrate a "physically impossible", I'd love to see it. I'm happy to enlist the support of physicists so you don't have to do all the explaining (in the event your demonstration includes a bunch of dense equations).
One thing I'm doing in my push toward an understanding of free will not restricted to the current laws of physics (that is, no other forces allowed) is to ensure that our current science stays falsifiable. In Intersubjectivity is Key, I note that there are two kinds of falsification: (I) contradiction; (II) incompleteness. I claim it's actually much harder to show (II). That's actually what Galileo did; he noticed that there was an in-between state in Aristotle's physics, between fire which goes upward and earth which goes downward. What about tangential motion? I'm no Galileo, but I worry that we humans suck at unearthing (II). We so desperately want to have described everything [relevant], at least at some "fundamental" level.
And the use of virus definitions involves blind faith with no decisions based on track record?
My non-use of virus definitions involves looking at the track record. I can't see any of the anti-virus program's source code. And anti-virus providers have a track record of misusing the privileges they are given on users' computers. Not to mention lying to those users about how effective their anti-virus software actually is. (Anti-virus providers sell anti-virus software for Linux, for example, where it is nothing but a security hole.) Linux distros, or at least the ones I've used, don't have any of these issues.
Probably the greatest point of disanalogy has nothing to do with the authority thing, and everything to do with the fact that (i) one does not start in a "known good state"; (ii) one cannot perform a flatten & reinstall.
I already acknowledged point (i). Point (ii) is valid as well. So what? I wasn't claiming it was an exact analogy. However, you are focusing on these particular points of disanalogy and ignoring the key point of the analogy: you can take countermeasures against subconscious manipulation, just as you can take countermeasures against malware, and the countermeasures in both cases have what I think are useful similarities. I have already repeated the phrase that summarizes those similarities several times, so I won't repeat it again.
If you insist on not agreeing that there are any useful similarities between these two cases, then we'll just have to agree to disagree and we can drop this point.
No, he doesn't. The quantum state is the evolving microstate. The macrostate is the set of values of thermodynamic variables (temperature and entropy are the key ones in his analysis).
In contrast, the macro-state of entropy in thermodynamics is based on an evolving micro-state of particles
These "particles" are actually quantum objects, and the "evolving microstate of particles" is a quantum state of the entire ensemble of particles. I.e., exactly the same kind of thing as the microstate in the de Sitter analysis.
In the classical approximation, the microstate of particles is a set of values of classical variables (position and momentum) for all the particles. But if it evolves in time, the corresponding quantum state evolves in time as well. See below.
because of the statistical nature of the measurement, entropy not infrequently fluctuates slightly downwards, for short periods of time.
Wrong. The fluctuation is not because of the statistical nature of the measurement. It's because the microstate (either quantum state or classical approximation, doesn't matter which) is changing with time, and such a change can, in principle, take it into a region of the microstate space which has different values for the macroscopic variables like temperature and entropy. If this happens, it is perfectly possible for the new value of entropy to be lower than the old one; this is what a "downward fluctuation in entropy" is. (And it is overwhelmingly likely that the continued change with time of the microstate will very soon take it back into a region of the microstate space that has a higher value of entropy.)
By contrast, in the de Sitter space quantum model Carroll describes, the microstate does not change with time at all. So obviously it cannot change to a state that has a different value for entropy or any other variable. That's all there is to it.
As a general comment: I don't know what your background is in physics, but you appear to me to have a tendency to focus on the superficial description in words of physical models, instead of the actual underlying physics. Actual physics isn't done in words, it's done in math, because math is more precise. Physicists try their best to give a reasonably accurate description in words to lay people, such as in Carroll's video, but that doesn't mean such descriptions are a good way to learn or reason about the actual physics. That's why I linked to the actual paper: because that's what gives the math, and what is reviewed by and challenged by other physicists.
I sense that you think I kinda suck at physics and therefore couldn't possibly have had a valid point.
I described why I think your grasp of physics is flawed at the end of my previous post. But I'm not basing my rejections of your points on a general rule like that; I'm basing them on specific flaws I see in your points, which I have pointed out. The general rule I described is just what I have inferred from multiple specific cases of having to reject your points based on specific flaws.
If you still think I'm being brain-damaged on this point after my clarification, I'll go consult some physicists and report back.
I don't think this will be helpful. I have never had a useful discussion about physics by proxy (just plenty of non-useful ones, which is what has given me the opinion I'm expressing). If you can get a physicist you know who is familiar with Carroll's work to come here directly and comment, that would be fine. But it's tough enough to make sure we're talking about the same thing and not talking past each other when I and a physicist are talking directly. Trying to do it with a third party in the middle is going to have too low a signal to noise ratio to be useful.
What I contend is that physics is not known to be complete, that there could be further order
I agree.
that further order could easily be relevant to everyday life
I disagree. And at this point I don't see how further discussion is going to change either of our minds, so there's no point in my view. I'm not telling you not to pursue whatever path you choose; that's up to you. I'm just saying that I don't see any point to discussing it further here, since at this point we're just repeating our positions.
The fluctuation is not because of the statistical nature of the measurement. It's because the microstate (either quantum state or classical approximation, doesn't matter which) is changing with time
If you look at the bottom of p. 5 in the paper, you will see that Carroll describes three kinds of fluctuations. The ones I'm describing here, and the ones that can lead to "downward fluctuations in entropy", are Boltzmann fluctuations in his terminology as given there. Fluctuations due to the statistical nature of measurement are "Measurement fluctuations" and are a different kind of thing.
Ron said...
> I don't think you've understood my point.
Apparently not.
> I'm not talking about valuing truth, I'm talking about qualities of the instrument which is used to discover truth.
And I still don't. What do you mean by "the instrument which is used to discover truth"? When I think of an "instrument" used to discover truth I think of a scientific instrument, like a telescope or a particle accelerator. But then I have no idea what you mean by the "qualities" of such an instrument. So I'm pretty sure I'm not getting it.
> Actually, I just took the reference to Euthyphro quite seriously and since you gave precious little detail, I had no other good option.
Sorry, I was referring specifically to this:
> is my "As good scientists, we ought to make some decisions about how we'll evaluate the evidence before the experiment is run, right?" 100% wrong?
No. But it is still incumbent on *you* to describe a *specific experiment* and explain how it tests a *specific hypothesis* before I can evaluate it.
> Your "our only recourse is to fall on our knees and beg for the benevolence of a non-existent deity" was not qualified to a "many"
There is probably not a single statement that one can make that applies to all people who self-identify as Christians, not even that they believe in the Resurrection or that they believe that Jesus is God. Nonetheless, I think it's fair, in a discussion of the merits of Christianity, to take those things which are believed by a majority of people who self-identify as Christians as representative of Christianity.
> you don't get to hide behind them like a shield.
Why not? Why is it not fair for me, when discussing Christianity, to cite the publicly declared positions of large numbers (millions) of people who self-identify as Christians? In fact, what else do you expect me to do?
> > If you believe that your salvation lies entirely in the hands of God and that your actions will not influence the outcome there is less motivation to work hard to find the truth.
> I'm a counterexample to that, in the flesh.
Yes, but you're extremely rare in that regard, possibly even unique. Do you really want me to start judging Christianity based on the position of a few extreme outliers? Because Christianity has outliers along a lot of different dimensions.
> > I am not making this up. Millions of people really do believe this.
> Have I ever denied that?
Have you ever denied that people believe it? No. Have you ever denied that it is true? You just did: "I'm a counterexample to that, in the flesh."
Ron said...
@Luke (2/2):
Huh?
> We've been on the SI merry-go-round multiple times; what's going on underneath?
I'm not sure what you mean by "the SI merry-go-round". But if you are asking why I take such pains to qualify "people who self-identify as Christians" it is because I do not want to put myself in a position to judge who is and is not a Christian. If someone tells me they're a Christian, I take them at their word regardless of what they actually profess to believe.
> > You seem to have ignored this bit:
> Luke: When I look in the OT, I see lots of predictions
No, I didn't ignore it. But it's irrelevant to the topic at hand, which is that *I* believe that an APK deity (or even merely a meta-oracle) is logically incompatible with free will. (That's what the OP was about, remember?)
I have no doubt that you are telling me the truth when you tell me what you see in the OT. But you telling me what you see in the OT is not going to change my mind about anything because *I* do not see these same things. (And, BTW, many of your fellow Christians apparently don't see them either. See above about you being an outlier. And BTW2 the APK deity whose words these are supposed to be surely *knew* that I would not see these same things, and in fact created the universe in such a way that I would not see these same things. So the fact that I do not see these things must somehow be part of God's plan. And the utter absurdity of all that is one of the reasons I don't believe in God.)
> > "Goodness itself has a predictive aspect, but not in the analytic fashion that allows you to write out deterministic equations."
> You also ignored that.
Because I couldn't think of any constructive response. You think everything God does is good, including (e.g.) forcing people to eat their own children and hardening Pharaoh's heart to extend the Israelites' bondage. I don't. We're just going to have to agree to disagree about this.
> I'm also sensing that you don't have much of a sense as to the power of internal criticism over external
Could be. So what? What does that have to do with whether or not free will is logically compatible with an APK deity?
> But anyone was allowed to question God and go his/her own way. ... Then they got carried off into exile.
That's a very peculiar use of the word "allowed". It's kind of like saying that anyone is "allowed" to commit murder, it's just that they then get carried off to prison.
Ron said...
One more thing:
> I guess I should discount the Caltech physics I took which dealt with "spherical cows".
If you actually had a course at Caltech that mentioned "spherical cows" as anything other than a joke then you should definitely demand a refund on your tuition.
I don't see how a deterministic model of free will can guarantee these things.
"Guarantee" is another of those words like "immune": it means you want perfection, and there is no perfection in the real world. No physicalist model of free will can give you such a guarantee. So if that's what you insist on, sorry, it's not possible.
Luke said...
> What do you mean by "the instrument which is used to discover truth"?
Ahh, I used that term with Peter:
> Luke: I'm not suggesting philosophy as the sole answer. We are the instruments with which we explore reality; philosophy lets us examine those instruments to see if they're operating logically and to see if they are blinding themselves to empirically legitimate possibilities. You still have to then go and observe.
I don't see how you can say that the instrument with which humans explore reality is value-free in its construction and functioning in pursuing scientific inquiry. That is, if I do the equivalent of gene-knockouts on various values, I think the practice of science would be hindered if not halted. (Technically, maybe the result would be to restrict science to approaching one or more "false asymptotes"—progress would be possible, but total progress would be limited to something well below the potential of humanity.)
> Sorry, I was referring specifically to this:
Yes, that's built on a Platonic metaphysic with the Form of Piety as something which can somehow causally interact with matter. To be precise: "___ is pious" ≡ "the Form of Piety has acted upon ___".
> But it is still incumbent on *you* to describe a *specific experiment* and explain how it tests a *specific hypothesis* before I can evaluate it.
Would you like to figure out one together? By myself, I think I'll be at a loss as to what could convince you that "Christianity" (whatever that means) can have true causal power that isn't just "belief in the idea of the thing is as [mentally] causally potent as belief in the thing which truly exists".
> There is probably not a single statement that one can make that applies to all people who self-identify as Christians, not even that they believe in the Resurrection or that they believe that Jesus is God. Nonetheless, I think it's fair, in a discussion of the merits of Christianity, to take those things which are believed by a majority of people who self-identify as Christians as representative of Christianity.
I appear to have predicted correctly:
> Luke: It's like you really, really, really don't want to categorize SI-Christians according to their causal powers, even though that is the *essence* of scientific analysis.
Furthermore, while I'm skeptical that you've described anything other than the majority of US Red State Christians or US SI-Evangelical Christians (and even then I have questions), I'm not sure why it matters if even if you are right. Popularity does not necessarily correlate with truth. The Bible notes plenty of times when the vast majority went evil.
> > I'm a counterexample to that, in the flesh.
> Yes, but you're extremely rare in that regard, possibly even unique.
You have now repeatedly ignored my excerpt of Richard Hofstadter on the Puritans. The more I talk with you about Christianity, Ron, the more it seems like you are grossly generalizing from a group which may be a majority in Red States, if even that.
> Do you really want me to start judging Christianity based on the position of a few extreme outliers? Because Christianity has outliers along a lot of different dimensions.
How many counterexamples does one need for falsification of a hypothesis?
Luke said...
> Huh?
You can click the @Ron link(s) to go to the comment(s) to which I was responding.
> > We've been on the SI merry-go-round multiple times; what's going on underneath?
> I'm not sure what you mean by "the SI merry-go-round".
We often talk about what "some" or "many" or "the majority of some sampling" of SI-Christians believe, as if that is somehow meaningful to the conversation. My question is why/how it is meaningful, given that scientific analysis often proceeds by disregarding human-assigned labels to look for commonality beneath the appearances/descriptions. In other words: commonality in causal powers.
> But if you are asking why I take such pains to qualify "people who self-identify as Christians" it is because I do not want to put myself in a position to judge who is and is not a Christian. If someone tells me they're a Christian, I take them at their word regardless of what they actually profess to believe.
"[T]o categorize SI-Christians according to their causal powers" is not to identify "True Christians™". I think I established this with you a long time ago, Ron—in response to your accusation of No True Scotsman. I may have used the better term "cluster". My suspicion is that if such clustering were to be done, different groups of Christians would manifest different strengths and different weaknesses/pathologies. One might be able to find a causal correlation between clusters and beliefs, especially beliefs defined this way.
> But it's irrelevant to the topic at hand, which is that *I* believe that an APK deity (or even merely a meta-oracle) is logically incompatible with free will.
Ok; it seems to me we tangented quite a lot, but I'll prune.
> But you telling me what you see in the OT is not going to change my mind about anything because *I* do not see these same things.
You know I'm always willing to show you, right? Sometimes it's just basic literary analysis.
> And, BTW, many of your fellow Christians apparently don't see them either.
Experiments needed.
> You think everything God does is good, including (e.g.) forcing people to eat their own children and hardening Pharaoh's heart to extend the Israelites' bondage. I don't.
That's unfair; there are open questions in that thread you didn't answer, which bear directly on what exactly it is I believe. We were in the state of, "If I (Ron) had all the powers, I would have done things differently" and I was challenging that by trying to get you to explain details about how you would in fact have done things. Failure to satisfactorily provide and justify such details is quite relevant to the topic of making an actually working world with certain properties you probably value. Unless you want God to have make an illogical world? I thought you valued logic, exceedingly strongly. (I still do.)
> What does that have to do with whether or not free will is logically compatible with an APK deity?
That depends on whether you'll rigorously engage me on the topic of kenosis (a good search term for the other thread). I can lead a horse to water, but I can't make him drink.
> > But anyone was allowed to question God and go his/her own way. ... Then they got carried off into exile.
> That's a very peculiar use of the word "allowed". It's kind of like saying that anyone is "allowed" to commit murder, it's just that they then get carried off to prison.
Was it God who carried them off to exile? If not, he was making fact-claims about reality and letting the Israelites believe them or not. How is that somehow brutal? On the contrary, he was giving the Israelites freedom via dual rationality.
Luke said...
> Luke: The serpent in the Garden was treated as moral agent. (It can easily symbolize some non-human moral agency.)
> Ron: And you believe that actually happened? A talking snake? Seriously?
> Luke: I guess I should discount the Caltech physics I took which dealt with "spherical cows".
> Luke: If you actually had a course at Caltech that mentioned "spherical cows" as anything other than a joke then you should definitely demand a refund on your tuition.
When I restore the bit you snipped (in bold now), things don't seem so ridiculous as the "quote-mine the theist saying something absurd" version. And I didn't take "spherical cows" to be literal or a joke: I took it to indicate that the physics we were working on was highly abstract and yet meant to ultimately apply to the real world.
I find it really odd that on the one hand, you want to allow "belief in the idea of God" to possibly have precisely the same causal properties as "belief in God who exists", and yet you are uncomfortable with a serpent in a myth possibly 3500 years old symbolizing anything whatsoever. Either (anachronistically!) literal or bust!!11
BTW, I was recently told that Genesis 3 was intentionally taking a symbol of goodness (WP: Serpent (symbolism)) and inverting it. I haven't done the legwork to examine just what the contemporary ideas of the serpent would have been held by the original hearers of the material which ultimately got put in Genesis 3. But this is consistent with things I know about Genesis 1, such as "greater lamp" and "lesser lamp" being used to denigrate the sun and moon gods. You see, Ancient Hebrew had perfectly good words for "sun" and "moon", but in order to ensure that the gods got evicted, it used "greater lamp" and "lesser lamp", instead. But somehow, such symbolic warring is irrelevant to you and you just get to take a dump on it: "lol talking snake you ignoramus". Even though a key thing that Genesis 1 does is take the notion of "divine image-bearer" away from just human kings and apply it to all humans. Screw that shit.
At this point I will re-raise my suggestion to study human motivation together:
> Luke: Perhaps it would be helpful to look at what the science says, and perhaps what wise people have said over the ages, about what seems to really motivate people. My contention about Christianity is that it's not just a bundle of hypothetical imperatives and abstract myths, such that motivation can easily happen "as if God exists" precisely as well as "if God truly exists". (I suspect the OT's treatment of idols is meant to get at the difference here, which may only show up after multiple generations—hence my focus on prediction, above.) How about we take our pretty little ideas about motivation and let reality grind off the stupid bits? And maybe we can consider that there are wise people throughout the ages who have figured out some things. Then we can take that and come back to issues like analyzing the motivations of Trump voters.
You seem to have some really weird ideas about … the laws which govern minds (or lack thereof); such a research project would surely help me see whether I'm the one who's actually weird or maybe that we're both pretty ignorant about issues quite relevant to the [potential] causal powers of religion.
Luke said...
You're right that we seem to be spinning our wheels. At this point, I think I need to rewrite my quote-tracking software to work on Ron's blog and then do a bunch of review. Feel free to cut off the conversation and treat the following merely as something for my reference.
I'm still desperate to find out how the conjunction of the five items below is physically impossible:
(3) with different trajectories being semantically meaningful
(4) where such infinitesimal forces are not reducible to the four fundamental forces (mostly E&M)
(5) given what physics experiments tell us about reality
(Feel free to correct that if I'm wrong—I've intentionally left wide open what those infinitesimal forces might look like. I'm trying to chip away at the problem rather than posit a full-fledged example of a concrete, infinitesimal force even possibly relevant to consciousness. Your point is well-taken that a spacecraft flying through an unstable Lagrangian point is crucially disanalogous to the environment within the brain.)
Now, I realize that you think you've addressed this sufficiently and somehow I'm just not getting it. You're welcome to switch to mathematics if you want. My offer to consult other physicists was actually more for my understanding said "physically impossible", than to … bring allies to the fight. And hey, maybe this is my "in" for better understanding various bits of mathematics I've wanted to learn. I'm really weird in that I like partially deriving how the math has to work from my understanding of physical systems. For example, I saw that Stoke's theorem (at least in three dimensions) has to be true, given conservation of energy, etc. Deriving theorems from axioms just leaves me empty of anything I would call "true understanding". Reality is more real than math[ematical approximations]!
I'm also still confused about how your shift from algorithms and proofs to heuristics (e.g. because of Rice's theorem) doesn't damage the conclusion that [everyday] reality is rigidly deterministic and follows Core Theory (aka Carroll's Big Equation™). If such determinism is simply a coarse-grained subspace of actual reality, then it seems that the door is wide open for Robert Laughlin's organizational laws of nature, which are an instance of the further order David Bohm talks about in my excerpt of Causality and Chance in Modern Physics. If determinism of the kind you've defended is just a way of thinking physicists should adopt that's one thing, but when you apply it to free will and moral responsibility, that's quite another. I don't understand the justification for the jump from one to the other. But as I've said, perhaps I'm simply brain-damaged. If I were to listen to the majority opinion of atheists with whom I've interacted online (the IRL distribution is very different), that is the conclusion I should draw. :-)
Ron said...
> I used that term with Peter:
Ah. Sorry, I've not been following that thread.
> I don't see how you can say that the instrument with which humans explore reality is value-free in its construction and functioning in pursuing scientific inquiry.
I don't believe I did say that. What I said (or at least what I intended to say) was that values cannot be objectively determined to be true or false, they can only be subjectively determined to be good or bad. That's the difference between a value and a fact.
> if I do the equivalent of gene-knockouts on various values, I think the practice of science would be hindered if not halted.
That depends on which values you remove. "Respect for authority", for example, is a value that I believe is detrimental to the practice of science. So is respect for faith. (Both of these values are held in high regard on the American political right.)
> that's built on a Platonic metaphysic
Bah, forget Euthyphro and forget piety and forget all the philosophical blather. Is it *good* because God says it's good, or does God say it's good because it conforms to some standard of goodness that is independent of God? Is it within God's power to create a universe where (say) adultery is not a sin?
> Would you like to figure out one together?
No. I believe that the odds of success are exactly the same as they would be if we tried to build a perpetual motion machine, which is to say, indistinguishable from zero. You are the one who believes that this could be something other than an exercise in futility, and so you are the one who is going to have to do the work.
> By myself, I think I'll be at a loss as to what could convince you that "Christianity" (whatever that means) can have true causal power that isn't just "belief in the idea of the thing is as [mentally] causally potent as belief in the thing which truly exists".
Who said you had to work by yourself? Just because *I'm* not interested in collaborating on this project doesn't mean you have no other resources at your disposal if you need help figuring this out. The world is chock-full of both atheists and Christians, many of whom I'm sure would be happy to collaborate with you on this project if you think you need help.
BTW, you should consider the possibility that the mere fact that this seems to be such a hard problem to be *evidence* that your hypothesis is actually wrong. Convincing me of the truth of true things is just not that hard. Mere humans have been able to convince me of the truth of some truly extraordinary claims. Surely an APK deity should be able to come up with a way of convincing me of His existence, and to communicate that information to you (or to me!) And yet, He hasn't done so. Why?
> You have now repeatedly ignored my excerpt of Richard Hofstadter on the Puritans.
Just because I don't respond to something you've written doesn't mean I've ignored it. But OK, if you insist: yes, the puritans professed to believe they were saved by grace and worked hard nonetheless. So?
> How many counterexamples does one need for falsification of a hypothesis?
What hypothesis is this supposed to be falsifying? The Puritans produced zero scientific progress, and their intellectual descendants are today trying to stop the teaching of evolution and denying anthropogenic climate change. If you want to convince me that Christianity is compatible with science, you are barking up a very wrong tree by citing the Puritans.
Ron said...
@Luke (2/2):
> scientific analysis often proceeds by disregarding human-assigned labels
What??? Where ever did you get that idea? That is absolutely 100% wrong. The first step of the scientific process is to formulate a hypothesis. How are you going to do that without labels?
Now, it is true that some labels are better than others. The choice of terminology is a significant part of a theory. (To quote David Deutsch, "Languages are theories.") The reason I focus on SI-ness is simply because it is easy to measure objectively: ask someone if they are a Christian and in the vast majority of cases they will give you an unambiguous answer.
> You know I'm always willing to show you, right? Sometimes it's just basic literary analysis.
Show me what? There is nothing you can possibly say that will convince me that forcing people to eat their own children is good.
> > And, BTW, many of your fellow Christians apparently don't see them either.
> Experiments needed.
> > You think everything God does is good, including (e.g.) forcing people to eat their own children and hardening Pharaoh's heart to extend the Israelites' bondage. I don't.
> That's unfair;
> there are open questions in that thread you didn't answer, which bear directly on what exactly it is I believe
Huh??? Your beliefs about God are contingent on what I would do if I were God? That makes no sense. But OK...
> trying to get you to explain details about how you would in fact have done things
It's really hard for me as a mortal to speculate on the specifics of what I would do differently if I were APK. But for starters, I probably would not have created hookworms.
> Was it God who carried them off to exile?
If everything that happens is God's will, then yes. Obviously.
> You seem to have some really weird ideas about … the laws which govern minds
Really? Like what? Because AFAIK all of my ideas about the laws that govern minds are pretty mainstream science.
I'm still desperate to find out how the conjunction of the five items below is physically impossible
(4) and (5) are obviously inconsistent, since what physical experiments tell us about reality is that everything is reducible to the four interactions we know (although I would say "built out of" instead of "reducible to").
If you remove (4) from the list, we don't know that the conjunction of the others is physically impossible, because we don't know enough of the details of what goes on in the brain. I just think it's extremely unlikely given the thermal noise in the brain, as I already explained.
I'm also still confused about how your shift from algorithms and proofs to heuristics (e.g. because of Rice's theorem) doesn't damage the conclusion that [everyday] reality is rigidly deterministic and follows Core Theory (aka Carroll's Big Equation™).
You keep on saying "deterministic" where I never said that. Everyday reality might be deterministic to a very good approximation, because quantum uncertainty is negligible, but that's still an approximation.
The Big Equation describes all of the fundamental particles and interactions except gravity, so it describes everything that our brains and bodies and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life are built from. It doesn't describe gravity, and we do deal with gravity in our everyday life, but if you like, we could add the Einstein Field Equation to Carroll's Big Equation to cover that. (I would say we could add Newtonian gravity, since that's a good enough approximation for almost all of everyday life, but since many people's everyday life now includes GPS, and you need relativistic gravity to explain why GPS works, I prefer to just use the relativistic equation.) The Big Equation doesn't describe dark matter or the cosmological constant, but those have no relevance to everyday life.
I don't understand what you mean by "shift from algorithms and proofs to heuristics".
If such determinism is simply a coarse-grained subspace of actual reality, then it seems that the door is wide open for Robert Laughlin's organizational laws of nature
I've gotten through a fair portion of Laughlin's book at this point, and one key thing he says is relevant here: if a given domain (such as our everyday life, or more precisely the Big Equation and Einstein's Field Equation and how our everyday life is built from them) is emergent from something else at a lower level, the laws of the emergent domain will be insensitive to the details of the laws at the lower level. In other words, the laws that govern our everyday life will be insensitive to the details of how the Big Equation and Einstein's Field Equation emerge from something lower down. Carroll says something similar in one of his articles.
That means that, no matter what we find at some point at a deeper level, it won't change the rules of how our brains and bodies and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life work. The way to figure out those rules is to do experiments at the level of our brains and bodies and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life. And as Carroll shows, we have done those experiments; we have looked for any other relevant interactions than the ones we know and not found them.
This is a key reason why physicists are so confident that we have a good understanding of the laws governing our everyday life, even though we don't know how (or even if) the Big Equation and the EFE emerge from something lower down.
As a more general comment on Laughlin's book, so far it looks to me like a mixture of layperson's descriptions of scientific models (and sometimes very good ones) and his own personal opinions. Which is fine since it's not a textbook, it's a popular book for lay people. But it means you can't learn science from his book, any more than you can from any other popular book. At best you can get pointers of stuff that looks interesting, so you can go learn about it from the proper sources, the ones that actually give the mathematical models and the experimental results.
Luke said...
I'm going to abort some tangents; feel free to object.
> > that's built on a Platonic metaphysic
> Bah, forget Euthyphro and forget piety and forget all the philosophical blather. Is it *good* because God says it's good, or does God say it's good because it conforms to some standard of goodness that is independent of God?
How would we causally interact with "some standard of goodness that is independent of God"? Remember that you just got done saying that values aren't (can't be?) objective.
> BTW, you should consider the possibility that the mere fact that this seems to be such a hard problem to be *evidence* that your hypothesis is actually wrong.
The more I research, and especially the more seriously I take the human sciences, the less hard the problem actually seems to be. But I've had the hardest of times getting you to take the human sciences seriously, which makes it especially hard to convince you of anything—other than that I'm weird.
> Convincing me of the truth of true things is just not that hard.
That was not my experience when we were analyzing how much of MLK Jr.'s success was due to chance. That is also not my experience when it comes to you learning how to change people's minds. I am flabbergasted by how much you appear to want to get other people to see different points of view, and how little you have availed yourself of all the science (and wisdom) on the matter.
You also seem to believe quite a few things which I find utterly dubious, such as:
> Ron: If you believe that your salvation lies entirely in the hands of God and that your actions will not influence the outcome there is less motivation to work hard to find the truth.
I understand that a parochial experience among Christians might have convinced you that this description fits, but I doubt you've merely done that; I think you've derived a causal mechanism which falls afoul of your claim: "AFAIK all of my ideas about the laws that govern minds are pretty mainstream science". Perhaps you could explain how mainstream science lets you say the above about salvation by faith alone & motivation to work hard to find the truth? I get that it might offer general laws/descriptions, of which this contention of yours is a specific.
> Surely an APK deity should be able to come up with a way of convincing me of His existence, and to communicate that information to you (or to me!) And yet, He hasn't done so. Why?
I've told you over and over how little value I think there is in someone being merely convinced that God exists. We seem to have a serious disconnect on this matter.
> Huh??? Your beliefs about God are contingent on what I would do if I were God?
No. Your understanding of my beliefs to a level satisfactory to me is contingent on you sufficiently engaging with me.
> > scientific analysis often proceeds by disregarding human-assigned labels
> What??? Where ever did you get that idea? That is absolutely 100% wrong.
You understand the difference between classifying phenomena by appearance and by common causal powers, right?
> > Experiments needed.
What does that (or the other articles) have to do with predictions in the OT?
> It's really hard for me as a mortal to speculate on the specifics of what I would do differently if I were APK. But for starters, I probably would not have created hookworms.
Then you don't know if you're suggesting coherent alternatives. Because you'd be making the same argument in a world without hookworms but with everything else.
Luke said...
You continue this conversation at your own risk; I cannot guarantee I know how to stop spinning my wheels. But I'm used to lots of wheel-spinning being required to communicate well with people rather different from me. With enough work, I have found breakthroughs to be pretty reliable. However, most people don't seem to be interested in that much work, and I don't blame them—this is just a random discussion on the internet, after all.
> what physical experiments tell us about reality is that everything is reducible to the four interactions we know (although I would say "built out of" instead of "reducible to")
I understand that physics experiments show that. What I don't understand is why that necessarily extrapolates to all of everyday life; there is a tremendous amount of everyday life which seems separated from the four fundamental laws very much like the "Barrier of Relevance" which Robert Laughlin describes. I also don't understand why anything which might act contrary to Core Theory (I mainly mean "having more structure than", rather than "contradictory to") at the everyday level would necessarily have been observed in physics experiments.
And yes, I understand that you can slightly weaken 'necessarily' → 'extraordinarily likely'. Given your extreme confidence (and that of Carroll), I don't see that much of a problem with using 'necessarily'. Indeed, it is my understanding that physicists rather enjoy speaking in that way, as if the model were reality for purposes of discussion. My wife tells me this is jarring for biologists who venture into biophysics.
> I just think it's extremely unlikely given the thermal noise in the brain, as I already explained.
I have a basic understanding of what thermal noise is; what I don't understand is why the time-evolution of state in the brain cannot pass through the equivalent of Lagrangian points, such that an infinitesimal push could pick between semantically meaningful (and different) trajectories. That push doesn't have to be localized to one point in space. (If it did, then your point about quantum uncertainty would make more sense—although I'm not sure I'm convinced by it.)
> You keep on saying "deterministic" where I never said that. Everyday reality might be deterministic to a very good approximation, because quantum uncertainty is negligible, but that's still an approximation.
I say "deterministic" for convenience; for more precision see the following:
> Luke: I know that we're very used to thinking that either things really are deterministic to the core, or that whatever is indeterministic is purely random. But how are those not metaphysical beliefs, rather than scientific beliefs? Here's David Bohm:
Even that is an approximation, because what is meant is causal monism, which is but one kind of "deterministic". What I'm trying to do—and you may suggest a better way—is to sharply distinguish between one possible way that causation could happen, and how that leaves open a tremendous number of logical possibilities. Then, I want to see how many of those logical possibilities are utterly ruled out by experimental data and which are still viable.
> I don't understand what you mean by "shift from algorithms and proofs to heuristics".
See your "construct a device that guesses" and "an algorithm for heuristically evaluating". To what extent is the replacement for "deterministic" a logical conclusion which necessarily follows from the data and to what extent is it merely a heuristic guess? How do we … quantify this matter?
Luke said...
> I've gotten through a fair portion of Laughlin's book at this point, and one key thing he says is relevant here: if a given domain (such as our everyday life, or more precisely the Big Equation and Einstein's Field Equation and how our everyday life is built from them) is emergent from something else at a lower level, the laws of the emergent domain will be insensitive to the details of the laws at the lower level.
Yes, which means that at the emergent level, there could be a different Big Equation™ in operation and experimentally, you wouldn't be able to tell. More precisely, at the emergent level, the Big Equation™ could be non-constant within a certain parameter range and we wouldn't necessarily be able to tell. There are some neat papers about what computational resources would be required to digitally simulate our reality, whereby the simulation is only as precise as is needed for what the beings within are doing. That is, the simulation wouldn't have to constantly crank the Big Equation™. If you accept Nick Bostrom's Simulation Argument, the line of thinking I'm pursuing might not seem very nutty at all.
But there's another way to understand what I'm trying to do in this thread, and that is discover where the laws of the emergent domain might actually be sensitive to the details of the laws at the lower level. You and Carroll seem utterly convinced that said "where" is far outside of everyday experience. I find that hard to swallow, given the tremendous amount we don't know about everyday experience. But more strongly, I predicate this suspicion on the sharp distinction we draw between 'objectivity' and 'subjectivity', which I can only model as a 100% impenetrable "Barrier of Relevance". But when you go from 99.99% → 100%, you can no longer explain what happens in 'subjectivity' by what happens in 'objectivity'. Take for example the claim that all values are 100% subjective and therefore cannot possibly be true or false. I cannot reconcile that with causal monism.
Yet another way to understand my reasoning is to return to the OP: is there something special about humans' ability to alter their behavior based on models of themselves? There is certainly the weird epistemic barrier: any proof to us that we cannot alter our behavior seems to be exactly the material we need to alter our behavior. The only exception I can see to this is if one is rather devious with said proof—I think there are avenues whereby that would work. It seems just plain wrong to try and circumvent that epistemic barrier and say that human behavior is really determined in a causal monist fashion, given all the approximations which have to be done between the nano/pico/fempto-scale and the macro-scale. (Maybe this is equivalent to Laughlin's "Barriers of Relevance".)
To your final comment on Laughlin's book, it seems obvious that he's offering his [expert!] scientific opinions, as he is suggesting that there is structure undergirding the Big Equation. He's going beyond what the data currently indicate. Perhaps what I like most is how often he says experiment throws curve balls at the theoreticians. Reality is so often more complex than our pictures of it. I am very concerned about prematurely cutting off lines of perfectly logically valid inquiry. But of course, possible ⇏ probable. That's where expert scientific judgment is required—we know more than we can say.
BTW, I did have a chance to learn the equations, probably at the most theory-intensive university in the world (Caltech). I couldn't hack it, because I cannot breathe the ethereal air of symbol-land for too long before dunking my head in the waters of practicality for a while. It's probably a blessing and a curse.
there is a tremendous amount of everyday life which seems separated from the four fundamental laws very much like the "Barrier of Relevance" which Robert Laughlin describes.
The Barrier of Relevance (which is indeed a useful concept) does not mean new building blocks get introduced. Everything is still built from the same underlying things (in this case, electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic interactions). It's just that it is not possible to figure out what the laws governing the underlying things predict, if you put enough underlying things together in a sufficiently complex configuration. The "reductionist" model Laughlin is criticizing here assumes that this is just a matter of computing power: a few more cycles of Moore's Law and it will be taken care of, no problem. Laughlin's point is that in some cases, this won't happen, because of something much like sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaotic dynamics.
I also don't understand why anything which might act contrary to Core Theory (I mainly mean "having more structure than", rather than "contradictory to") at the everyday level would necessarily have been observed in physics experiments.
Acting "contrary to" Core Theory does not mean "obeying laws that look different from the Big Equation". Fluids obey the laws of hydrodynamics, which are expressed in equations that look very different from the Big Equation. But fluids are still made of atoms or molecules that are made from electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic interactions.
The real point Laughlin is making when he discusses emergence is that, because the emergent laws are insensitive to the details of the underlying levels, you can't tell what the underlying levels are just by looking at the emergent laws. For example, you can't tell what a fluid is made of by looking at the laws of hydrodynamics. You have to actually get down to the underlying level in experiments. We don't know fluids are made of atoms and molecules from the laws of hydrodynamics. We know it by doing other experiments (for example, the ones on Brownian motion, or the ones Avodagro built his original hypothesis on) which probe the underlying level.
By the same token, if you want to know what our brains, bodies, and all the objects in our everyday life are made of, there's no point in looking at the laws that describe their behavior at that level--at least not if those laws are emergent in Laughlin's sense (and I think they are). You have to do experiments that probe the underlying level. That's what physicists have done, and that's what my claim about what our brains, bodies, and all the objects in our everyday life are made of is based on.
On the other hand, if you want to know what laws govern our brains, bodies, and all the objects in our everyday life, at that level, looking at the Big Equation is not going to be very helpful. If there is indeed a Barrier of Relevance in between, then looking at the Big Equation will never be helpful. But that does not mean our brains, bodies, and all the objects in our everyday life aren't made of the stuff the Big Equation describes.
See your "construct a device that guesses" and "an algorithm for heuristically evaluating". To what extent is the replacement for "deterministic" a logical conclusion which necessarily follows from the data
It isn't. You are the one who keeps insisting on logical conclusions; I never have. You seem to want free will to be a logical necessity based on some fundamental law. It isn't. It's a heuristic capability of our brains that is not guaranteed to work. Just like a chess playing computer's ability to reach checkmate is a heuristic property of its program that is not guaranteed to work. There is no way to logically deduce this property from the program. You have to watch it in action.
Ron said...
> I'm going to abort some tangents; feel free to object.
Fine with me.
> How would we causally interact with "some standard of goodness that is independent of God"?
I'm not sure I understand what you're asking, because the answer seems so obvious that I'm insulting your intelligence with this answer, but here goes: first, we (humans) *choose* the standard (i.e. we cause the standard to become the standard) and then we *apply* the standard to judge and influence our actions and the actions of others. Building codes, for example, are standards of goodness that are independent of God. Also, evolution imposes certain constraints on standards of goodness because any standard of goodness that is not an evolutionarily stable strategy will tend to die out (e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shakers#Celibacy_and_children)
Is that the answer you were looking for?
> I've had the hardest of times getting you to take the human sciences seriously
I have no idea what you mean by "the human sciences". Humans are the only entities in the known universe doing science so all science is "human science". Do you mean psychology and sociology? I take that very seriously, especially psychophysics. But the sad fact of the matter is that a lot of the work in the psychology and sociology (and economics) just isn't very good.
Is there something specific you want me to take more seriously than I do?
> > Convincing me of the truth of true things is just not that hard.
> That was not my experience when we were analyzing how much of MLK Jr.'s success was due to chance.
What??? In that case I conceded that you were right and I was wrong. What more do you want?
> I am flabbergasted by how much you appear to want to get other people to see different points of view, and how little you have availed yourself of all the science (and wisdom) on the matter.
I confess I'm not a good marketeer. We can't all be good at everything. (I think one of the reasons I'm not a good marketeer is that I'm not willing to do what it takes to be a good marketeer, which is to lie a lot. Donald Trump is an *excellent* marketeer, a true master of the craft. But I would vastly prefer to fade away into obscurity than to be even a little bit like him.)
> Perhaps you could explain how mainstream science lets you say the above about salvation by faith alone & motivation to work hard to find the truth?
I don't need to see a peer-reviewed scientific study to know that if I hit you in the head as hard as I can with a baseball bat, you will probably suffer serious injury. Likewise, I don't need to see a peer-reviewed scientific scientific study to know that if someone believes that there is an infinite reward waiting for them in the afterlife, that this will make them less likely to try to improve their lot here on earth.
Ron said...
@Luke (2/2):
> I've told you over and over how little value I think there is in someone being merely convinced that God exists.
The operative word there being *merely*. You place a great deal of value on the words of the Bible. But the value of those words is highly contingent on their provenance: when deciding how to apply those words to your life, it really *matters* whether the Bible is the inerrant Word of God, or if it's just another work of human literature. So the question of whether God exists matters, even if it is not the only thing that matters.
> We seem to have a serious disconnect on this matter.
Do we? Do you actually disagree with anything I said in the previous paragraph?
> You understand the difference between classifying phenomena by appearance and by common causal powers, right?
No. Seriously, no, I have no idea what you are talking about.
> What does that (or the other articles) have to do with predictions in the OT?
You elided the crucial context. We weren't talking about predictions in the OT, we were talking about:
> > And, BTW, many of your fellow Christians apparently don't see them either.
> Experiments needed.
where "them" refers to "the things you see in the OT", and specifically, the idea that the OT discourages dominating other people.
> Then you don't know if you're suggesting coherent alternatives.
Yes, I already conceded that, didn't I? I'm a mere mortal, so it's not possible for me to know what I would do in a hypothetical world where I was God, and I knew things that I don't currently know. (But that does not prevent me from being very confident that if I had God's super-powers I could improve on *this* world.)
> you'd be making the same argument in a world without hookworms but with everything else.
No, because in that world *I would be God*, and so I would (presumably) know things that I do not know in this world. My house cleaning might start with hookworms, but I doubt very much that it would end there.
at the emergent level, there could be a different Big Equation™ in operation and experimentally, you wouldn't be able to tell.
Not if you just look at the behavior at the emergent level, no. But we have taken apart brains and bodies (in autopsies) and objects used in everyday life, and done experiments to figure out what they are made of. Your claim here amounts to saying that they could be made of something else when aren't taking them apart but just looking at their behavior at the emergent level. That means you are denying the principle of induction, and in that case all bets are off; we can't conclude anything.
And to be clear, I don't think Laughlin is making any sort of claim like the one you are making here. He says repeatedly in his book that emergence doesn't change the underlying level or make it no longer be true when emergent behavior is present. In your terminology, I think he would say (and I would agree) that emergent behavior--even when a Barrier of Relevance is involved--is perfectly consistent with "causal monism".
Yet another way to understand my reasoning is to return to the OP: is there something special about humans' ability to alter their behavior based on models of themselves?
You have experience with programming, right? So maybe you could ask yourself: could you program a computer to alter its behavior based on its model of itself? I take it you would agree that computers can be explained in terms of "causal monism", right?
Ron said...
> the laws that govern our everyday life will be insensitive to the details of how the Big Equation and Einstein's Field Equation emerge from something lower down.
@Peter: This is a really crucial point, and I wanted to thank you for making it.
@Luke: This is a really crucial point. You often cite the incompatibility of GR and QFT to support your argument that science is somehow fundamentally deficient or something like that (I apologize if I'm mischaracterizing your position with my choice of words). But this is wrong. Even though we don't know the Ultimate Answer yet, we do know a great deal about what the Ultimate Answer can possibly look like. The difference between the Right Answer and the Wrong Answer will manifest themselves near the event horizons of black holes, and maybe (if we're lucky) in high-energy particle accelerators, but nowhere else. Certainly not in human brains.
Luke said...
> The Barrier of Relevance (which is indeed a useful concept) does not mean new building blocks get introduced.
It does not necessarily imply that new building blocks get introduced. What I want to know is why it is physically impossible for new building blocks to exist above Barriers of Relevance. At least physically impossible given what experiments tell us (I keep saying "experiments" to discourage too much extrapolation). By the way, "new building blocks" can be a great number of things. Let me cue off of another Nobel laureate, Ilya Prigogine:
>> In The Emperor's New Mind, Roger Penrose states, "It is our present lack of understanding of the fundamental laws of physics that prevents us from coming to grips with the concept of 'mind' in physical or logical terms."[19] We believe that Penrose is right: We need a new formulation of the fundamental laws of physics. The evolutionary aspects of nature have to be expressed in terms of the basic laws of physics. Only in this way can we give a satisfactory answer to Epicurus' dilemma. The reasons for indeterminism, for temporal asymmetry, must be rooted in dynamics. Formulations that do not contain these features are incomplete, exactly as would be formulations of physics that ignore gravitation or electricity. (The End of Certainty, 16)
Here's a specific:
>> Is this difficulty merely a practical one? Yes, if we consider that trajectories have now become uncomputable. But there is more: Probability distribution permits us to incorporate within the framework of the dynamical description the complex microstructure of the phase space. It therefore contains additional information that is lacking at the level of individual trajectories. As we shall see in Chapter 4, this has fundamental consequences. At the level of distribution functions ρ, we obtain a new dynamical description that permits us to predict the future evolution of the ensemble, including characteristic time scales. (The End of Certainty, 37)
Prigogine was not proposing a new particle to add to "electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic interactions". But he is proposing something new, something not contained in the Big Equation™, which seems relevant to "everyday life".
> By the same token, if you want to know what our brains, bodies, and all the objects in our everyday life are made of, there's no point in looking at the laws that describe their behavior at that level--at least not if those laws are emergent in Laughlin's sense (and I think they are).
But then why do conclusions of causal monism at the substrate-level transfer seamlessly to the emergent-level? Remember, a core contention of Carroll and Coyne and you is that we ought to do that transfer when it comes to thinking about free will and moral responsibility. That "Barrier of Relevance" seems curiously permeable in this one respect.
Luke said...
> You are the one who keeps insisting on logical conclusions; I never have.
When one becomes so confident in a thing that one is willing to write Seriously, The Laws Underlying The Physics of Everyday Life Really Are Completely Understood, the difference between a probabilistic formulation of "almost certainly the case" and a logical formulation of "certainly the case" becomes very small. I can expand on this if you want—I've observed for a long time what a shift from [Aristotelian] logic to probabilistic inference does and does not entail in discussions.
> You seem to want free will to be a logical necessity based on some fundamental law.
It's more that free will seems to have a fundamental connection to falsifiability. I'm not willing to give up on falsifiability.
> It's a heuristic capability of our brains that is not guaranteed to work.
I get this. But somehow, you have incredible confidence in the causal monism/physicalism output of said heuristic capability. Indeed, that confidence seems so high that the difference between "99.9999% probable" and "logically the case" seems academic.
Luke said...
> > at the emergent level, there could be a different Big Equation™ in operation and experimentally, you wouldn't be able to tell.
> Not if you just look at the behavior at the emergent level, no. But we have taken apart brains and bodies (in autopsies) and objects used in everyday life, and done experiments to figure out what they are made of. Your claim here amounts to saying that they could be made of something else when aren't taking them apart but just looking at their behavior at the emergent level. That means you are denying the principle of induction, and in that case all bets are off; we can't conclude anything.
When you take apart brains and bodies, are they conscious? Or is consciousness a property which is gone by the time you do the taking apart? If it's actually gone, then you are not studying "the same thing". Something crucial is gone, and that something is absolutely required for the topic of the OP (free will).
I don't hold to the principle of induction and neither does Ron. That doesn't mean we can't extrapolate from the known to the unknown; science wouldn't be possible if we didn't do that. But we must be cautious when we extrapolate. As a faculty member at Caltech put it, "The difference between a good scientist and a great scientist is that the latter remembers the original data as well as the resultant equation." All of my experience points to his statement being true. As another faculty member at Caltech put it—this was the spring before he got a Nobel Prize in physics—a critical stage in scientific maturity is to be able to hold two apparently contradictory ideas in one's mind without immediate ejecting one of them. I think he was riffing on F. Scott Fitzgerald:
>> Before I go on with this short history, let me make a general observation—the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function. (The Crack-Up)
I would connect that to dual rationality. :-D So some of my confidence, which you seem to think is anti-scientific, comes from my best understanding of some of the world's best scientists. I am fully aware of how risky it is to question the scientific orthodoxy in the way I do; I realize how unlikely I am to hit upon something which would help us understand reality more deeply. For most people, it is much more effective to swallow the scientific orthodoxy whole, do experiments, and merely pay attention to where they deviate from orthodoxy. However, I do not think the practice of science can survive solely on that mindset. I believe—based on science—that sometimes we have to get patterns going in our consciousness before we can observe them out in reality. I can expand upon this if you'd like, although I first suggest checking out that link if your curiosity is piqued.
Luke said...
> And to be clear, I don't think Laughlin is making any sort of claim like the one you are making here.
I see him not as making claims but opening doors which you have slammed shut [with extremely high probability]. I think we need to talk about just how impenetrable "Barriers of Relevance" are, before either of us can know that with sufficiently high probability. (See, I can say that instead of "with certainty".) If changes in the substrate are shielded at the emergent level, are they shielded 100%? Or are they merely shielded to quite a few decimal places? Because to pick a trajectory at an unstable Lagrangian point, how small a change is required?
> In your terminology, I think he would say (and I would agree) that emergent behavior--even when a Barrier of Relevance is involved--is perfectly consistent with "causal monism".
Sure. But that's not the question; the question is whether collective laws of nature has the potential—not necessity—to destabilize causal monism.
Luke said...
> > Yet another way to understand my reasoning is to return to the OP: is there something special about humans' ability to alter their behavior based on models of themselves?
> You have experience with programming, right?
Extensive. I have limited understanding of theory of computation. I know, for example, that any Turing machine can "print own description". I forget the precise details and a quick googling failed. I'm also aware of Thomas Breuer's The Impossibility of Accurate State Self-Measurements (pdf), although that of course applies to quantum systems and there are arguments that nothing important about consciousness or free will can possibly be that kind of quantum.
> So maybe you could ask yourself: could you program a computer to alter its behavior based on its model of itself? I take it you would agree that computers can be explained in terms of "causal monism", right?
Computers can, yes. If you want to say that all human thinking is Turing-powerful or less (e.g. an FSA), I will ask you for how falsifiable that model is. More precisely—because Ron and I have discussed this point at length—I want to know how restrictive the claim "all human thinking is Turing-powerful or less" is in comparison to F = GmM/r^2. In the latter case, many possibilities we can easily see happening in our reality are ruled out (to plenty of decimal places). The claim that human thinking is no more than Turing-powerful doesn't seem to be nearly as falsifiable.
For ideas on an alternative to how to think of human thinking, see Tim Van Gelder's 1995 Journal of Philosophy article What Might Cognition Be, If Not Computation?. He suggests that dynamical systems are not necessarily reducible to Turing machines, although they can be simulated by Turing machines to arbitrary precision. That's fine as long as infinitesimal forces cannot pick between semantically meaningful trajectories. :-)
Ron said...
> The claim that human thinking is no more than Turing-powerful doesn't seem to be nearly as falsifiable.
That claim is *trivially* falsifiable. Any computer that is more powerful than a TM would be able to perform a large number of very specific tasks that a TM can't (e.g. prove any mathematical theorem in a finite amount of time). Exhibiting a human that can perform any one of these tasks would falsify the claim
Another way to falsify is would be to exhibit a process going on inside a human brain that affects its I/O behavior but cannot be modeled by a TM. If you were to show, for example, that the human brain really was a quantum computer -- i.e. that superpositions of entangled states really did affect its I/O behavior in ways that violate the Bell inequalities -- that would falsify the claim.
Luke said...
> > How would we causally interact with "some standard of goodness that is independent of God"?
> I'm not sure I understand what you're asking, because the answer seems so obvious that I'm insulting your intelligence with this answer, but here goes: first, we (humans) *choose* the standard (i.e. we cause the standard to become the standard) and then we *apply* the standard to judge and influence our actions and the actions of others.
But that doesn't resolve the Euthyphro dilemma, that just picks one of the horns and ignores the other. Also, what's the difference between us choosing the standard and it being chosen for us, on a physicalist construal of reality?
> > I've had the hardest of times getting you to take the human sciences seriously
> I have no idea what you mean by "the human sciences".
Sociology, psychology, economics, political science, etc. Science which would help you understand other humans and how to communicate well with them. This includes getting them to see other points of view instead of being forever stuck in their own. You have expressed frustration at failing to accomplish this. I attempted to provide you with resources to overcome that failure; my attempt failed, miserably. I guess that could be because I'm brain-damaged.
> But the sad fact of the matter is that a lot of the work in the psychology and sociology (and economics) just isn't very good.
Yeah, see Drug development: Raise standards for preclinical cancer research, which among other things points out the 6/53 reproducibility rate Amgen experienced when examining premier research on cancer.
But do you think you yourself can do better than the "failing" human sciences? Sorry, couldn't resist. Are you smarter than the results of Converse 1964? (BTW, those results probably apply to theological beliefs as well as political-ideological beliefs. That should cause us to be cautious about inferring causal powers from such beliefs!)
Luke said...
> > > Convincing me of the truth of true things is just not that hard.
> > That was not my experience when we were analyzing how much of MLK Jr.'s success was due to chance.
> What??? In that case I conceded that you were right and I was wrong. What more do you want?
You attributed more to chance than I did. And you attributed much more limitation to circumstances of chance (such as they are) than I did.
> > I am flabbergasted by how much you appear to want to get other people to see different points of view, and how little you have availed yourself of all the science (and wisdom) on the matter.
> I confess I'm not a good marketeer. We can't all be good at everything.
I don't think it's merely a matter of marketing and I cannot believe you are that incapable of learning, or that learning would be as painful/onerous as you think. So what I see is a massive disparity between something you say is important to you, and the [lack of] [scientific] effort I see you putting into it.
> (I think one of the reasons I'm not a good marketeer is that I'm not willing to do what it takes to be a good marketeer, which is to lie a lot. …)
Have empirical results from the human sciences convinced you that this is, with extremely high probability, the only viable option?
> I don't need to see a peer-reviewed scientific study to know that if I hit you in the head as hard as I can with a baseball bat, you will probably suffer serious injury. Likewise, I don't need to see a peer-reviewed scientific scientific study to know that if someone believes that there is an infinite reward waiting for them in the afterlife, that this will make them less likely to try to improve their lot here on earth.
Then why did the Apostle Paul try so hard? That makes no sense on your model. Zero. Nada. Also there is 1 Cor 3:10–15—I guess we just ignore it? Also, let's ignore 1 Cor 15:58. Why would our "labor" matter one whit, on your account? I mean, doesn't each follower of Jesus get precisely the same infinity of awesome regardless of anything [s]he did in life—other than assent to some propositions about God's existence? But perhaps I am running up against what you think the majority (of some subset … which one I'm not quite sure, other than something like "Red States") of SI-Christians believe. Maybe we should add those verses to the list of things I ask if we ever get to do that interview with you being a fly on the wall.
What does it mean to "seek first the kingdom of God and his righteousness"? I thought people just had to believe and then they were done and could do whatever the hell they want?
Luke said...
> > I've told you over and over how little value I think there is in someone being merely convinced that God exists. →
> The operative word there being *merely*. You place a great deal of value on the words of the Bible. But the value of those words is highly contingent on their provenance: when deciding how to apply those words to your life, it really *matters* whether the Bible is the inerrant Word of God, or if it's just another work of human literature. So the question of whether God exists matters, even if it is not the only thing that matters.
Are you aware of how, for a paradigm shift in science to take place, a whole lot of work has to be done and it's only after a certain cumulative threshold has been crossed before very many people take it seriously? That is, one cannot just show superiority on one point and get the paradigm shift to be massive accepted. Well, I claim the same thing happens with Christianity and in particular, the mere belief in God is of little cumulative value. Even the demons believe. They're still demons! (Unless you just think that's completely unrealistic, that if demons believed in God's mere existence, they'd stop being demons. But then surely you'd be denying the fact/value dichotomy and I know you're highly resistant to doing that.)
> > ← We seem to have a serious disconnect on this matter.
> [1] Do we? [2] Do you actually disagree with anything I said in the previous paragraph?
[1] Yes. [2] I don't think so, but see my response to that paragraph, above.
> > You understand the difference between classifying phenomena by appearance and by common causal powers, right?
> No. Seriously, no, I have no idea what you are talking about.
Do you know what the term "judging by appearances" means?
Did I? See: "> Luke: When I look in the OT, I see lots of predictions".
> where "them" refers to "the things you see in the OT", and specifically, the idea that the OT discourages dominating other people.
That wasn't as close, contextually, as the predictions thing. But we can switch to the domination thing if you want—on the condition that you're willing to compare the ancient Israelites to surrounding nations.
Luke said...
> > Then you don't know if you're suggesting coherent alternatives.
> Yes, I already conceded that, didn't I? I'm a mere mortal, so it's not possible for me to know what I would do in a hypothetical world where I was God, and I knew things that I don't currently know. (But that does not prevent me from being very confident that if I had God's super-powers I could improve on *this* world.)
History shows that when humans get more powers, they often screw things up. So I just don't see the evidence for your confidence. Indeed, I think this is one thing that belief in original sin prevents: exceedingly high confidence in one's ability to massively improve the world "if only I had the power". In massive contrast to your point of view, I don't think any of us has more power than [s]he has because if we did given our current moral status, we'd actually do more damage and less good. We need to become better before it is safe to entrust us with more. I believe strongly enough in my non-awesomeness to say that. Perhaps you think you are that much better than I. After all, maybe we just massive disagree on quality metrics. I, for example, think it is absolutely wicked to lie to people about the US being anything like a democracy or representative republic when it isn't.
> No, because in that world *I would be God*, and so I would (presumably) know things that I do not know in this world. My house cleaning might start with hookworms, but I doubt very much that it would end there.
I don't trust your ability to properly simulate in your finite mind, what you'd be like with all the powers and all the wisdom. I just can't take your "presumably" seriously as things stand. Now, if you were to show that, roughly, as you increase in wisdom and power and knowledge from where you are at now, you are able to progressively make reality better and better without any sufficiently negative side-effects, I might be willing to trust you on some extrapolation. But if somehow there's a massive jump discontinuity, that you have to have all the powers before that happens, I'm going to remain extremely skeptical. I think the evidence warrants that.
By the way, I don't particularly fault you for thinking that you can sufficiently simulate infinitude with finitude. That seems to be the fad of modernity. Francis Fukuyama epitomizes that behavior with his 1992 The End of History and the Last Man (18,000 'citations'). He reminds me of all the smart people in the decades leading up to WWI, glorying in how awesome humans are. This attitude of awesomeness is in our societal DNA. We know we're not necessarily awesome in the world we've actually brought into existence, but we're pretty sure our concepts are awesome. If only we had all the powers.
In contrast to the above attitude, the Bible makes it clear that God abhors pride and arrogance. Indeed, in God's response to Job, he says that if Job can abase the proud and conquer the wicked, then he will acknowledge that Job's "own right hand can save [him]". (Job 40:6–14) I think that means that part of attaining god-hood—to the extent that a finite being can do so—is shredding pride and arrogance. Now, how exactly does one do this while not being proud & arrogant? Maybe Jesus provided a clue-stick or three …
Luke said...
> You often cite the incompatibility of GR and QFT to support your argument that science is somehow fundamentally deficient or something like that (I apologize if I'm mischaracterizing your position with my choice of words).
> Even though we don't know the Ultimate Answer yet, we do know a great deal about what the Ultimate Answer can possibly look like. The difference between the Right Answer and the Wrong Answer will manifest themselves near the event horizons of black holes, and maybe (if we're lucky) in high-energy particle accelerators, but nowhere else. Certainly not in human brains.
I understand that you really, truly, deeply believe the bit I put in bold. And yet, I personally know a tenured faculty member at one of the world's most prestigious research institutions who is working on a "somewhere else". So whom is it most rational for me to believe? Well, given that I've seen nothing like what I would consider a rigorous proof of the bold (and by "rigorous proof", I mean something that delivers 99.99% confidence), I'm going to disbelieve you. Now, you're welcome to put forth a more formal argument of the bold. Maybe that will convince me. Or maybe I'm too badly brain-damaged and this is a massive waste of your time and @Peter's time.
> > The claim that human thinking is no more than Turing-powerful doesn't seem to be nearly as falsifiable.
> That claim is *trivially* falsifiable. Any computer that is more powerful than a TM would be able to perform a large number of very specific tasks that a TM can't (e.g. prove any mathematical theorem in a finite amount of time). Exhibiting a human that can perform any one of these tasks would falsify the claim
String theory is also trivially falsifiable. Oh wait, maybe the term "trivially" is not appropriate in this context …
I stand by my claim: it is much easier to falsify F = GmM/r^2 than it is to falsify "human thinking is no more than Turing-powerful". In other words, F = GmM/r^2 rules out many more options which could easily be observed for all we know (maybe we just aren't looking in the right place—and indeed we weren't, as Einstein showed with GR), than does the … Turing Hypothesis.
> Another way to falsify is would be to exhibit a process going on inside a human brain that affects its I/O behavior but cannot be modeled by a TM. If you were to show, for example, that the human brain really was a quantum computer -- i.e. that superpositions of entangled states really did affect its I/O behavior in ways that violate the Bell inequalities -- that would falsify the claim.
Sure. I didn't say "unfalsifiable", I said "as falsifiable". Another way to look at this, Ron, is that you can only seem to describe really obvious, in-your-face examples of "not a TM". But that's generally not how extant paradigms are shattered. Even the ultraviolet catastrophe wasn't seen as paradigm-shattering by many, for a while. What you don't seem able or willing to do is show how "not a TM" might barely poke its head into view—just barely. With a "noise" level similar to Hubble's original data.
Am I making any more sense on this matter? You and I have discussed in quite a few times. Maybe I finally explained my position better … or maybe not. Maybe the brain damage continues unabated!
somehow, you have incredible confidence in the causal monism/physicalism output of said heuristic capability.
These are your words, not mine. I would say (and have said) that what I have incredible confidence in is: (1) that our brains and bodies and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life are made of electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic forces; and (2) that the emergent laws that govern the behavior of our brains, bodies, and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life are insensitive to how the laws governing electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic forces are related to anything at some lower level, if such a level exists. Whether that equates to "causal monism/physicalist output of said heuristic capability" is something you're going to have evaluate, not me, since those are your terms. I really don't care since I don't care about those terms to begin with; I've already explained what I care about.
When you take apart brains and bodies, are they conscious? Or is consciousness a property which is gone by the time you do the taking apart? If it's actually gone, then you are not studying "the same thing".
In other words, you're saying that the electrons, quarks, and elecromagnetic forces in a brain, or for that matter the neurons, neurotransmitters, hormones, etc., somehow "know" whether consciousness is "turned on" or not and work by different laws when it is, than when it isn't. Sorry, no sale. If this were true, consciousness would have to be another interaction, over and above the ones we know, that works at the energy scales of brains, and we would have seen it in experiments.
I don't hold to the principle of induction
If so, then I bow out of this discussion, because I don't know how to reason or function without it. How do you predict where the items in your house are going to be from day to day without induction? How do you plan your daily activities without induction? How do you get in your car and expect it to start without induction? How do you expect ordinary objects like rocks not to suddenly explode without induction? I could go on and on.
When I see people say they don't believe in induction, I interpret that to mean they simply haven't thought through the actual basis of their daily activities.
Actually, though, it appears that you do believe in induction; see below.
neither does Ron
If this is true, I did not realize it.
That doesn't mean we can't extrapolate from the known to the unknown
Um, that is induction.
Sure. Would you be happier if I said "cautious induction" instead of just "induction"?
some of my confidence, which you seem to think is anti-scientific, comes from my best understanding of some of the world's best scientists.
I don't think your confidence in this particular area is anti-scientific, I just think it's not going to turn out to be justified by any results. But your time and effort is yours to spend.
As for "some of the world's best scientists", I don't think they're saying what you claim they're saying.
I see him not as making claims but opening doors which you have slammed shut
Same difference. You think he's holding out the possibility that, for example, electrons and quarks and electromagnetic forces, or neurons and neurotransmitters and hormones, could follow different laws in the brain when consciousness is "turned on" than when it isn't. I don't. I think consciousness itself is just another emergent property built on electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic forces, by way of neurons, neurotransmitters, and hormones (and many other things). If there are "laws of consciousness", they are laws at a still higher level than the level of neurons, neurotransmitters, and hormones, etc., just as the laws of the browser program in which I am typing this are at a higher level than the laws of CPU instructions and I/O, which in turn are at a higher level than the laws of logic gates and transistors, etc.
to pick a trajectory at an unstable Lagrangian point, how small a change is required?
The Barrier of Relevance is irrelevant here (pun intended). The Newtonian laws of motion that allow small changes at unstable Lagrangian points to lead to large changes in ultimate trajectory are at the same level as all the other Newtonian laws. All of those laws are shielded by a Barrier of Relevance from the underlying laws that determine, say, the tensile strength of the steel from which the spaceship is built, or the heat of combustion of the fuel and oxidizer when combined. The Newtonian laws don't care whether your spaceship gets its delta-v from a chemical rocket, an ion drive, a nuclear explosion, or a gamma ray laser focused on it from a distant space station. The only thing that matters is that Newton's laws allow chaotic, unstable dynamics that is also controllable.
In other words, the whole "small delta v" model you are thinking about has to be a model at the same level as the brain; it's not something that can "leak" from a lower level. You have to show that chaotic, unstable dynamics that are also controllable are possible at the level of the brain That's why I based my skepticism on something--thermal noise--that operates at that same level.
that's not the question; the question is whether collective laws of nature has the potential—not necessity—to destabilize causal monism.
I think you missed the point of my comment. I asked quite a while back what counts as causal monism. Let me ask it again, but now in a more focused way.
Consider a rock. It is a solid object. The solid phase (as Laughlin describes in some detail) is itself governed by "collective laws of nature"; we can't deduce all of the properties of a solid like a rock just from the Big Equation that governs the electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic forces that it is made of. The properties that the rock has, such as hardness, have causal powers: you can hit something with a rock and make a dent in it. These causal powers are due to the collective laws of nature that govern solid bodies.
So here we have a rock, with a set of causal powers due to collective laws of nature; and it is made of electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic forces, which have causal powers due to a different set of laws, the Big Equation. Does this count as "causal monism" by your definition, or not?
Luke said...
> > somehow, you have incredible confidence in the causal monism/physicalism output of said heuristic capability.
> These are your words, not mine.
I have yet to find a way to distinguish between what I mean by "causal monism" and what you mean by "physicalism". The former are my words, but the latter is your word.
> I would say (and have said) that what I have incredible confidence in is: (1) that our brains and bodies and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life are made of electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic forces; and (2) that the emergent laws that govern the behavior of our brains, bodies, and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life are insensitive to how the laws governing electrons, quarks, and electromagnetic forces are related to anything at some lower level, if such a level exists.
Yeah, I'm still at an impasse—I don't understand how Sean Carroll's Seriously, The Laws Underlying The Physics of Everyday Life Really Are Completely Understood makes it through that "insensitive", especially given stuff like what Ilya Prigogine wrote. You might note that "the complex microstructure of the phase space" is neither an electron, a quark, or an electromagnetic force. It appears to be nonlocal/nonseparable state—something which just doesn't exist at the level of individual trajectories. You spend a lot of time focusing on electrons, quarks, and EM forces when there is plenty of other ways to get structure—e.g. via phonons. Too much focus at the individual level blinds you to the possibility of stuff like topological quantum computers, which are theoretically able to carry out quantum computations in environments that some of the earlier ides of QMs just couldn't. Topological quantum computers depend on anyons, which are quasiparticles which can only exist in restricted environments. And yet, maybe we can do more with them—of a kind that you have previously said we cannot because of thermal noise. Unless I'm missing something? To emphasize once more, collective properties of particles cannot necessarily be reduced to individual measurements of each particle, "summed" as it were.
Luke said...
> In other words, you're saying that the electrons, quarks, and elecromagnetic forces in a brain, or for that matter the neurons, neurotransmitters, hormones, etc., somehow "know" whether consciousness is "turned on" or not and work by different laws when it is, than when it isn't.
Must I be saying that? All I'm saying is that the things you keep talking about, when studied the way you talk about studying them, have no property of consciousness. Since free will is very dependent on consciousness, that seems to be a problem. If your measuring instrument cannot detect consciousness, maybe it isn't sophisticated enough—maybe it doesn't have enough of the requisite building blocks.
> > I don't hold to the principle of induction
> If so, then I bow out of this discussion, because I don't know how to reason or function without it.
Ask @Ron. He functions without it.
> How do you predict where the items in your house are going to be from day to day without induction?
Induction is a heuristic and no more. I am constantly looking for how reality is more glorious, more awesome, than I previous thought. I try and treat people the same. The opposite is to expect people to never change, a topic upon which I already commented.
> How do you plan your daily activities without induction?
XKCD: Frequentists vs. Bayesians
> When I see people say they don't believe in induction, I interpret that to mean they simply haven't thought through the actual basis of their daily activities.
Nope, I just take Ceteris Paribus Laws seriously.
> > That doesn't mean we can't extrapolate from the known to the unknown
> Um, that is induction.
SEP: The Problem of Induction
> Sure. Would you be happier if I said "cautious induction" instead of just "induction"?
This would make me happy:
>> Nearly two hundred years ago, Joseph-Louis Lagrange described analytical mechanics based on Newton's laws as a branch of mathematics.[33] In the French scientific literature, one often speaks of "rational mechanics." In this sense, Newton's laws would define the laws of reason and represent a truth of absolute generality. Since the birth of quantum mechanics and relativity, we know that this is not the case. The temptation is now strong to ascribe a similar status of absolute truth to quantum theory. In The Quark and the Jaguar, Gell-Mann asserts, "Quantum mechanics is not itself a theory; rather it is the framework into which all contemporary physical theory must fit."[34] Is this really so? As stated by my late friend Léon Rosenfeld, "Every theory is based on physical concepts expressed through mathematical idealizations. They are introduced to give an adequate representation of the physical phenomena. No physical concept is sufficiently defined without the knowledge of its domain of validity."[35] (The End of Certainty, 28–29)
I want extreme rigor in delineating domains of validity.
Any computer that is more powerful than a TM would be able to perform a large number of very specific tasks that a TM can't (e.g. prove any mathematical theorem in a finite amount of time).
But you could never verify this, because there are an infinite number of possible mathematical theorems, and you would have to show that the thing-more-powerful-than-a-TM could prove all of them in a finite amount of time.
More generally, the line of argument you are giving is vulnerable to the argument involving heuristics that I made earlier in response to Luke. A TM that cannot guarantee an answer to a given problem can still give answers to that problem by heuristic guessing, just not with 100% certainty. For example, no TM can guarantee an answer to the Halting Problem, but a TM could heuristically guess which programs will halt and which will not, with better than chance accuracy; it just couldn't achieve 100% accuracy.
Finally, any argument involving TMs has to take emulation into account. Suppose I program TM A to emulate TM B. While emulating TM B, TM A cannot produce a proof of the Godel sentence for TM B. But there is nothing to prevent TM B from being, for example, a TM that produces a proof of the Godel sentence for TM A! (Dennett had a paper on this back in the 1970s, which is where I first came across the argument.) And there is nothing to prevent TM A from emulating some other TM that produces a proof of the Godel sentence for TM B.
In short, I think the idea of being able to prove that humans can do things that TMs can't do is a nonstarter, because we can't achieve 100% certainty about what exactly TMs can't do.
a process going on inside a human brain that affects its I/O behavior but cannot be modeled by a TM
Why couldn't a TM simulate quantum dynamics? They're just equations.
Can't it? If it can't, then how do you know brains of dead people in the autopsy room aren't conscious?
I was assuming that detecting consciousness is simple: is the person alive and awake? There are edge cases, yes (such as the former common belief among doctors that curare was an anesthetic instead of just a paralytic), but I don't think a brain of a dead person being autopsied, vs. the brain of the same person when they were alive and talking, is such an edge case. If you want to make it one, then we need to back up and you need to carefully define exactly what you mean by consciousness and why you think it's so difficult to detect.
Induction is a heuristic and no more.
Sure. So what? Basically your position seems to be "I'll use induction as a heuristic except when it doesn't suit my argument". Sorry, color me unconvinced.
I want extreme rigor in delineating domains of validity.
This is a valid point, but the quote you give doesn't ask the obvious next question: how do we determine domains of validity?
For Newton's Laws, the way that was done was by pushing the boundary of experiment until the theory broke. The laws themselves claimed to be universal; there was no way of figuring out from them what the boundary of the domain of validity should be.
For the Big Equation and the Einstein Field Equation, that is not the case (though not all physicists will necessarily admit that--but Carroll does, and he said so in his article). These theories contain within themselves predictions about where they will break down--i.e., what the boundary of their domain of validity is. General Relativity says it breaks down when spacetime curvature gets very, very large (roughly the Planck scale). Quantum field theory says it breaks down when the energy scale becomes comparable to whatever ultraviolet cutoff is necessary to renormalize the theory.
So far we have not been able to test the GR prediction of its boundary, because all of the experiments we can currently do, and all of the astronomical observations we can currently make, involve spacetime curvatures well below the range where the boundary is expected to be. The closest we have gotten so far is actually the black hole mergers observed recently by LIGO, which confirmed the GR predictions of gravitational waves, and also the detailed numerical simulations of what the waveforms should look like for a black hole merger.
For quantum field theory, we cannot probe the expected boundary of the Big Equation (the Standard Model of particle physics) with our current experiments, but previous quantum field theories have followed the expected pattern. Two early examples were the Fermi theory of the weak interaction and the Yukawa pion exchange theory of the strong interaction. Both of these theories had cutoffs beyond which new physics was expected to appear, and indeed it did: in the weak interaction case it was electroweak theory and the W and Z bosons; in the strong interaction case it was quarks and QCD. Both of these are part of the Standard Model.
The statement of Gell-Mann that Prigogine was questioning with the Rosenfeld quote didn't say "quantum field theory", it said "quantum mechanics", which is more general--in fact "quantum mechanics" does not name a theory, it names a way of constructing theories. (Scott Aaronson likes to say that QM is an operating system, and specific theories like the Schrodinger Equation or QFT are applications running on it.) But if Gell-Mann meant that all future viable theories must be constructed this way, of course we don't and can't know for sure that that's true; it's a bet on the way future theories will turn out, not something you can prove from current theories. (As Aaronson says, General Relativity has not yet been ported to the QM OS, and there are some physicists--Freeman Dyson is a notable one--who have questioned whether doing so is actually possible or necessary. That is an open question at present.)
Ask @Ron. He functions without it.
I could ask, yes. But presumably you got the idea from somewhere; can you give any specific reference as to where? A particular post of his? Or a discussion?
No, it's an abstraction.
It appears to be nonlocal/nonseparable state—something which just doesn't exist at the level of individual trajectories.
No, it's an abstraction.
You're comparing apples and equations.
Luke said...
> No, it's an abstraction.
And electrons (as defined by the laws of physics) aren't?
> > It appears to be nonlocal/nonseparable state—something which just doesn't exist at the level of individual trajectories.
> No, it's an abstraction.
Ok, let's take two entangled photons. Can one describe the state of one of them without describing the state of the other? I'm very interested in your answer to this with regards "apples and equations".
BTW, it'd be interesting to know if you think you might agree or disagree from the following by Bernard d'Espagnat:
>> In the debates for and against realism what, within the scientific community, long turned the scales in favor of (physical or objectivist, or etc.) realism was the fact that explaining visible, complex features by means of invisible simple ones was generally successful. Here “simple” means “describable by means of clear, distinct ideas.” So that it is—still now—quite often thought (and even considered obvious!) that assuming that the objects theories label by names really exist can only be a help in research. Along these lines some epistemologists consider, for instance, that to claim that any electron exists by itself—with such and such known or unknown individual properties—still is the best way we have of understanding phenomena involving electrons.
>> It is quite important to know that this is not in the least true, that, systematized in this way, such a view not only does not help at all but is even quite likely to mislead us. Thus, for example, the idea that each one of the electrons in an atom is individually in one definite quantum state (lies on one definite “orbit”) is just simply erroneous. (According to the only operationally nonmisleading picture we have, every one of them lies simultaneously on all the “allowed” orbits.) In other words, there are situations in which the vocabulary we use—and in particular such words as “electron,” “particle,” and so on—is suggestive of “pieces of evidence” that are, finally, but erroneous ones. (On Physics and Philosophy, 38–39)
I am well aware that Ceci n'est pas une pipe. (Boring version: I know about mistaking the map for the territory.) But I'm not sure how you're saying that *I* am making that error. In particular, I have no idea how many of your words throughout this conversation have been intended to solely refer to the map, rather than the territory. (Incidentally, when one is in map-land with rigorous axioms, one can speak in terms of logical entailment. QM requires one to be a bit nuanced.)
collective properties of particles cannot necessarily be reduced to individual measurements of each particle, "summed" as it were.
Of course not, and I wasn't claiming they were.
At this point you're just waving your hands and gesturing in the general direction of "collective behavior can produce interesting stuff". Which is true, but much to vague for a meaningful discussion. Your "very small delta v" model at least had a specific basis (unstable Lagrangian points).
And electrons (as defined by the laws of physics) aren't?
To use Ron's language, they're in a different ontological categories. Equations are models. Electrons are things being modeled.
let's take two entangled photons. Can one describe the state of one of them without describing the state of the other?
If you insist on only using pure states, no; neither photon has a pure state by itself, only the two-photon state does.
If you allow mixed states, you can assign a mixed state (density matrix) to either photon by itself. The usual description of this is that you "trace over" the other photon.
Does this help any?
it'd be interesting to know if you think you might agree or disagree from the following by Bernard d'Espagnat
As far as I can see, he's saying that the states of electrons in atoms are entangled. To the best of my understanding, that's true.
Does that mean that saying, for example, that "there are 6 electrons in a carbon atom" is "misleading"? I don't think so. I can't figure out whether d'Espagnat is saying that or not. Of course if someone were to say something like "electrons #1 and #2 are in the 1s orbital of this carbon atom", that would be misleading (since, first, electrons don't have little labels on them to distinguish them, and second, the 6 electrons are entangled); but do physicists (as opposed to lay people in pop science books) actually say things like this?
I have no idea how many of your words throughout this conversation have been intended to solely refer to the map, rather than the territory.
Models are maps. Things being modeled are territory. Does that help?
Luke said...
> > collective properties of particles cannot necessarily be reduced to individual measurements of each particle, "summed" as it were.
> Of course not, and I wasn't claiming they were.
But … they're abstract, while electrons are concrete/real/things? Incidentally, there seems to be a slight problem:
> Peter: As a general comment: I don't know what your background is in physics, but you appear to me to have a tendency to focus on the superficial description in words of physical models, instead of the actual underlying physics. Actual physics isn't done in words, it's done in math, because math is more precise.
When you say "electron", do you always mean "the actual thing out there" or do you sometimes mean "the entity in the model"? What I have very little sense of is whether you see a difference between those two things—a difference d'Espagnat articulates.
> At this point you're just waving your hands and gesturing in the general direction of "collective behavior can produce interesting stuff". Which is true, but much to vague for a meaningful discussion. Your "very small delta v" model at least had a specific basis (unstable Lagrangian points).
I would agree that I'm being vague; I am not aware of the precise mathematics which would describe chaotic behavior whereby an infinitesimal force—perhaps applied simultaneously at multiple different points within the chaotic substance (see my "nonseparable causation")—can alter the trajectory of the evolution of the system, picking between two semantically meaningful (and different) states (recall that I mentioned the concept of multiple realizability). But fortunately, I am now at the point where I have physicist friends and I probably can get something much closer to rigorous mathematical equations if not all the way there. Perhaps we should suspend this conversation about "akin to unstable Lagrangian points" (≠ "unstable Lagrangian points") until I do that?
I will add one thing. There is a big difference between requiring me to present you with a viable option of how infinitesimal forces could operate, and you saying that we know that no such forces could possibly be operating "in everyday life", given the experimental results we have from fundamental physics. You realize this, right? Possibly this is a situation like Galileo faced, whereby all was thought to be described (earth falls, fire rises) when there was a non-excluded middle: tangential motion exists and in fact leads to conclusive demonstrations of impetus (if not inertia). But you and Carroll seem very, very confident that there is no such non-excluded middle in this case. Would that an accurate description of your position, at least?
Ron said...
> > Any computer that is more powerful than a TM would be able to perform a large number of very specific tasks that a TM can't (e.g. prove any mathematical theorem in a finite amount of time).
> But you could never verify this
Sure you could. We're not talking about Platonic ideals here, we're talking about actual physics. When we say "The human brain is a TM" what we really mean is that the human brain can be *emulated* by a TM. A real TM, one that we could actually build and run if we had the right technology. We can compute upper bounds on what is possible given the constraints imposed by the known laws of physics. The hypothesis that a human brain is a TM could be falsified (at least to my satisfaction) by demonstrating a human brain that reliably violates those limits.
For example, a human that was able to reliably solve NP-complete problems in O(n) time would certainly make me question my worldview, and a human that could do it in O(1) time would make me believe in God. (Heck, any entity who could do that would *be* God.)
> Why couldn't a TM simulate quantum dynamics? They're just equations.
Time. A TM can simulate quantum dynamics, but in time that is exponential in the number of entangled degrees of freedom. A quantum computer can't solve any problem that a classical computer can't in principle, but in practice a quantum computer can solve problems in fractions of a second that would take a classical computer longer than the lifetime of the universe.
> the principle of induction
I think you two might be using this phrase to mean two different things. There is mathematical induction (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_induction) and there is the inference of a general rule from exemplars. I suspect Peter is referring to the first (mathematical induction) while Luke is referring to the second (inferring a rule from exemplars). I accept the first, but not the second.
I try to use it to mean "the actual thing out there", but it's true that it's often tempting to use it to mean "the entity in the model", particularly when the discussion is focused on models instead of experiments.
However, I think this particular problem is a side issue. The real problem is when people use the word "electron", for example, to refer to "the actual thing out there", but then reason as if "the actual thing out there" has properties that it doesn't have. For example, thinking that the actual "electrons" out there are little billiard balls that are distinguishable from each other, instead of being whatever-it-is that is keeping that oil drop suspended in the electric field we have turned on in our laboratory experiment.
There is a big difference between requiring me to present you with a viable option of how infinitesimal forces could operate, and you saying that we know that no such forces could possibly be operating "in everyday life", given the experimental results we have from fundamental physics. You realize this, right?
Sure. And if you and your physicist friends come up with an experiment that shows that such a thing is going on in people's brains when they exercise their free will, then by all means send me a copy of the paper you publish reporting the results. :-)
Short of that, though, I'm not sure I could contribute anything useful to your efforts.
For example, a human that was able to reliably solve NP-complete problems in O(n) time would certainly make me question my worldview
By "solve" I assume you mean "provide a proof that the solution is optimal", correct? After all, the traveling salesman problem is NP-complete, yet human traveling salesmen are able to plan routes. :-)
A TM can simulate quantum dynamics, but in time that is exponential in the number of entangled degrees of freedom.
Ah, I see.
I suspect Peter is referring to the first (mathematical induction) while Luke is referring to the second (inferring a rule from exemplars). I accept the first, but not the second.
No, I was referring to the second. (I would think that would be obvious from the examples I gave; I don't use mathematical induction to ground my expectation that my car will start tomorrow morning.)
I wasn't aware that you didn't accept the second. Or do you just mean that, as Luke said, it's a heuristic rule only?
Ron said...
> I wasn't aware that you didn't accept the second. Or do you just mean that, as Luke said, it's a heuristic rule only?
Nope. Induction is completely invalid. Counter-examples abound. The sun has risen on earth every day for the last four billion years, but in another four billion years (more or less) there will be no more sunrises because the sun is going to turn into a red giant and there will be no more earth. But there's no way to know that from induction.
The sun has risen on earth every day for the last four billion years, but in another four billion years (more or less) there will be no more sunrises because the sun is going to turn into a red giant and there will be no more earth. But there's no way to know that from induction.
To me this seems like a case of "induction is a heuristic rule only", not "induction is completely invalid". If it were completely invalid, it shouldn't be valid even to infer that the sun will rise tomorrow, much less that it will continue to do so for another four billion years or so. I suppose this could be termed a difference in our use of language, but it seems like a pretty drastic one; calling a rule that works for eight billion years "completely invalid" seems like a bit of a stretch.
Luke said...
> > let's take two entangled photons. Can one describe the state of one of them without describing the state of the other?
> If you insist on only using pure states, no; neither photon has a pure state by itself, only the two-photon state does.
> If you allow mixed states, you can assign a mixed state (density matrix) to either photon by itself. The usual description of this is that you "trace over" the other photon.
> Does this help any?
Yes, that helps. Now, are any/all of those descriptions are "abstract", in precisely the sense that you said:
> Peter: No, it's an abstraction.
? Probably it's also important to reference this:
> Peter: I try to use it to mean "the actual thing out there", but it's true that it's often tempting to use it to mean "the entity in the model", particularly when the discussion is focused on models instead of experiments.
The reason I'm asking all this is that I'm really proposing that there exist more things in reality than electrons, quarks, and EM which are "real" and relevant to "everyday life". But as far as I can tell, those things could be entities such as "the complex microstructure of the phase space". You, however, possibly disagree. I don't really understand how you are using the distinction between the map and the territory, yet. There seems to be stuff in the d'Espagnat excerpt you haven't addressed. For example, if there is no such thing as a "naked electron" but what it is is always a function of the environment it is in, then the space seems wide open for nonlocal/nonseparable entities to exist, to be "as real" as the electrons we use to make semiconductors work.
Where I'm obviously going with this is that the more "real" things there can be, the more opportunity there is to have "Barriers of Irrelevance" which neutralize/balance enough of the substrate to allow causal powers which were [previously] drowned by the noise to measurably manifest. But if you're going to insist that anything which manifests is "abstract"/"less real" than electrons, quarks, and EM, I'll want to discuss that more—probably via digging into d'Espagnat's "weak objectivism".
Luke said...
> However, I think this particular problem is a side issue. The real problem is when people use the word "electron", for example, to refer to "the actual thing out there", but then reason as if "the actual thing out there" has properties that it doesn't have. For example, thinking that the actual "electrons" out there are little billiard balls that are distinguishable from each other, instead of being whatever-it-is that is keeping that oil drop suspended in the electric field we have turned on in our laboratory experiment.
That may be a problem for some, but I'm more interested in your confidence that reality is pretty much like the model [for purposes of everyday life]. Actually I'm not even sure what that really means, given the crazy spread of interpretations of QM. The mathematics which has been tested out to many decimal places permits an incredible range of ontologies. And yet, you're happy to kinda-sorta dismiss the entities I bring up as "abstract", while holding to your own as "real". It strikes me that this confidence might not actually be warranted. Were you to go back to exactly what the evidence actually tells you, maybe you'd find there are more possibilities which Carroll forecloses with his Seriously, The Laws Underlying The Physics of Everyday Life Really Are Completely Understood.
> > There is a big difference between requiring me to present you with a viable option of how infinitesimal forces could operate, and you saying that we know that no such forces could possibly be operating "in everyday life", given the experimental results we have from fundamental physics. You realize this, right?
> Sure. And if you and your physicist friends come up with an experiment that shows that such a thing is going on in people's brains when they exercise their free will, then by all means send me a copy of the paper you publish reporting the results. :-)
> Short of that, though, I'm not sure I could contribute anything useful to your efforts.
What I want to know is why you've foreclosed the physical possibility (that is, you permit nothing other than an exceedingly low probability) that there could be states akin to unstable Lagrangian points in the time-evolution of brain-states. At this point in time, your confidence seems based on a heavy dose of induction. I can check this, but I would guess that really excellent scientists have a good sense of where induction is increasingly likely to be erroneous, within their field. I see zero such caution from you or Carroll. I'm wondering if you think you do practice such caution, but simply draw the boundaries differently than I would.
Ron said...
> If it were completely invalid, it shouldn't be valid even to infer that the sun will rise tomorrow
And indeed it is not valid. Just because an inference happens to be true doesn't mean it's valid. For example, I can hypothesize that apples fall to earth because they are pulled down by leprechauns. If I adopt this theory I will correctly conclude that if I drop an apple it will fall, but that doesn't mean my inference is valid.
Induction is essentially the theory that nothing ever changes. If things don't change, then induction gives you true conclusions, and if they do then it doesn't. The reason induction appears to be less ridiculous then it actually is is that our intuitions filter out many of the invalid inferences as "silly", e.g.:
For the past 1017 years the year of the date has had four digits, and that will continue to be true for the next 8982 years. Nonetheless, I can predict with extremely high confidence that after December 31, 9999 the year of the date will have five digits, despite the fact that this has never before been observed in the known universe.
Elizabeth II has been queen of England every day for the last 24,000 days or so. It does not follow that she will be queen of England for another 24,000 days.
Donald Trump has been an asshole for at least 50 years. It does not follow that he will be an asshole for another 50 years.
Sometimes, though, our intuitions fail us badly. The stock market has risen more or less continuously for the last 8 years. But if you think it's valid to conclude from that that it will rise for another 8 years (and some people do) you are in for many nasty surprises.
are any/all of those descriptions are "abstract", in precisely the sense that you said
I guess if we're equating "abstract" with "map", then yes. Quantum states and phase space are map, not territory.
I'm really proposing that there exist more things in reality than electrons, quarks, and EM which are "real" and relevant to "everyday life".
I never said there weren't. I just said that all of those other things are made of electrons, quarks, and EM forces.
as far as I can tell, those things could be entities such as "the complex microstructure of
No, they can't, because "the complex microstructure of the phase space" is map, not territory. But they could be (and are) things like neurons, neurotransmitters, hormones...or brains...or free will and consciousness. The physicalist view is that all of those things are made of electrons, quarks, and EM forces.
if you're going to insist that anything which manifests is "abstract"/"less real" than electrons, quarks, and EM
I'm not. See above.
What I want to know is why you've foreclosed the physical possibility (that is, you permit nothing other than an exceedingly low probability) that there could be states akin to unstable Lagrangian points in the time-evolution of brain-states.
I already explained that, several times: thermal noise. I don't see the point of continuing to reiterate the same argument. If you're not convinced, that's your choice. But that's my answer.
I'm wondering if you think you do practice such caution, but simply draw the boundaries differently than I would.
That's probably the best way to think of it at this point.
Induction is essentially the theory that nothing ever changes
I wasn't intending to use the word "induction" that way, but of course we don't all use words the same way. Perhaps it will help to taboo the word "induction" and rephrase my question:
Do you believe the sun will rise tomorrow? If so, what is your basis for this belief?
(And if you don't, what specific actions are you taking to plan for the significant--to you--possibility that the sun will not rise tomorrow?)
Ron said...
> Do you believe the sun will rise tomorrow?
> If so, what is your basis for this belief?
That is not an easy question to answer. I'd have to explain celestial mechanics and the life cycles of main-sequence stars. But the point is that I believe the sun will rise tomorrow because I believe I understand *why* it will rise tomorrow, not because I've observed it rising in the past.
I'd have to explain celestial mechanics and the life cycles of main-sequence stars.
You don't have to explain those things, I understand them fine. But what is your basis for the belief that those laws will continue to work for the next four billion years, so that their prediction of what will happen to the Sun to stop it from rising at that point will be valid?
Ron said...
> You don't have to explain those things
I kinda figured that. But I also kinda figured that you already knew that I believe the sun will rise tomorrow.
> what is your basis for the belief that those laws will continue to work for the next four billion years
But how do you tell when this "faith" is appropriate and when it isn't? You didn't give "faith" as the answer when I asked why you believe the sun will rise tomorrow; you talked about celestial mechanics and the life cycles of main sequence stars--you said you understand why the sun is going to rise tomorrow. Where does that stop and "faith" begin?
Ron said...
> Where does that stop and "faith" begin?
It doesn't. I simultaneously maintain my (justified) belief that the universe is governed by laws of physics and my (unjustified) faith that these laws will not change in the future. In the absence of a theory of why the laws of physics are what they are (and we do not yet have such a theory) there can be no justification for believing that they won't change. I choose to believe it (to be precise, I choose to assign a Bayesian prior very close to 1) nonetheless.
Luke said...
> > What I want to know is why you've foreclosed the physical possibility (that is, you permit nothing other than an exceedingly low probability) that there could be states akin to unstable Lagrangian points in the time-evolution of brain-states.
> I already explained that, several times: thermal noise. I don't see the point of continuing to reiterate the same argument. If you're not convinced, that's your choice. But that's my answer.
Here's the first time you mentioned "thermal noise":
> Peter: That's not to say that no such model will ever be successful, but I can see at least one plausible reason to be skeptical: thermal noise in the brain should be way too large to allow any meaningful dependence of the brain's activity on quantum uncertainty. In all the cases in which we have experimentally probed quantum uncertainty, the biggest challenge is keeping the quantum system "quiet" enough to allow quantum effects to be significant; that means strict isolation from all other systems. The brain is not at all like that.
That wasn't in response to discussion of "(1) existence of brain states akin to unstable Lagrangian points"; on the contrary it was in the vein of @Ron's "One can always choose to base one's actions on the outcome of a quantum measurement." Here's the second time you mentioned "thermal noise":
> Luke: If there are near-chaotic aspects of thinking then perhaps the subtlest of pushes could send the thinking one way vs. another. Maybe even infinitesimal pushes, if brain states can pass through unstable Lagrangian points.
> Peter: Yes, this is in principle possible, but I don't see how it would be controllable in the brain the way a spacecraft's trajectory is controllable, because of the thermal noise issue I brought up earlier. There is no analogue of thermal noise in spacecraft trajectories. That's what allows the spacecraft's engine burn to be controlled precisely enough to produce the desired orbital change. The analogue of thermal noise for a spacecraft would be random perturbations to the orbit with energies comparable to the orbital energy. With such things present you couldn't even get the spacecraft to predictably hit an unstable Lagrange point in the first place, much less precisely control how an engine burn there would affect its orbit.
I can see how you would see my "pushes" as being only point-pushes like spacecraft navigating the ITN. But why is that the only option, the only physically plausible kind of infinitesimal force? I actually got quite explicit about this:
> Luke: Now, as it comes to this issue, I suspect one might need to employ both nonseparable causation (nonseparable state ⇔ nonseparable causation) and weak measurement if not interaction-free measurement. I can go into the reasons later, but suffice it to say that any equivalents of Lagrangian points in human thinking near the edge of chaos are almost certainly going to be spread out in space, rather than being a spacecraft flying through a point.
Later I reiterated this point: "That push doesn't have to be localized to one point in space." So … it would appear that both of us are reiterating the same argument. It's just that I think my reiterating renders your reiterating obsolete. But you don't seem to think that, and I don't know why.
Luke said...
> > are any/all of those descriptions are "abstract", in precisely the sense that you said
> I guess if we're equating "abstract" with "map", then yes. Quantum states and phase space are map, not territory.
But then what successes does physics have under its belt which are related to "electrons are real", which cannot actually be attributed to "the abstract electrons represented by these equations"? Are not all the successes actually due to how well the map operates? You seem to be taking a very particular realist stance and I want to know if it's actually justified by the evidence, or whether it's actually a philosophical stance. I am somewhat acquainted with constructive empiricism.
> > I'm really proposing that there exist more things in reality than electrons, quarks, and EM which are "real" and relevant to "everyday life".
> I never said there weren't. I just said that all of those other things are made of electrons, quarks, and EM forces.
To the extent that you want to refer to something more than the map when you say "electron", that can only mean something different if (i) you think map = territory when it comes to electrons, quarks, and EM forces; (ii) you think electrons in the territory are somehow more than electrons in the map. True, or false? BTW, in all this discussion I have been proposing that the map doesn't tell us everything about the territory when it comes to "everyday life". That is reducible to "the map is not homomorphic to the territory, when it comes to matters of everyday life". I didn't expect you to affirm such a proposition, because you started making a sharp distinction between abstractions and reality.
> "the complex microstructure of the phase space" is map, not territory.
I don't see why that has to be the case. And you've now confused me, given this exchange:
> Luke: To emphasize once more, collective properties of particles cannot necessarily be reduced to individual measurements of each particle, "summed" as it were.
> Peter: Of course not, and I wasn't claiming they were.
If a collective property cannot be "summed", how can it be abstract? If I measure each particle individually to the best of my ability, aggregate those measurements, and yet still cannot compute the collective property, then that would seem to make that collective property really real. Or to be more precise (since we seem to be playing the pedantic game), the collective property in the map would point us toward something existing in the territory which isn't an electron, quark, or EM forces. (If you permit a full-fledged "EM field", then it is my understanding that it (the abstraction) can represent nonseparable collective properties. Is this true?)
Luke said...
> the extent to which humans are sensitive to information is far from clear.
So I finally finished that article and want to add to my initial response. I found this particularly interesting:
>> Surveys on many other issues have yielded similarly dismaying results. “As a rule, strong feelings about issues do not emerge from deep understanding,” Sloman and Fernbach write. And here our dependence on other minds reinforces the problem. If your position on, say, the Affordable Care Act is baseless and I rely on it, then my opinion is also baseless.
The idea that "becoming more informed" is a solution seems to be problematic. One reason comes from Converse 1964 The nature of belief systems in mass publics (8400 'citations'. Here's how WikiSummary describes it:
>> A great majority of people neither adhere to a full, complete set of beliefs which produces a clear ideology nor do they have a clear grasp of what ideology is. This is measured by a lack of coherence in responses to open-ended questions. Ideology of elites is not mirrored by the masses and voter revolt to a political party does not reflect ideological shifts.
>>
>> Converse analyzes open-ended interview questions to measure conceptualization of ideology. He concludes that the liberal-conservative continuum is a high level abstraction not typically used by the man in the street because of response instability and lack of connections made between answers. There is no underlying belief structure for most people, just a bunch of random opinions. Even on highly controversial, well-publicized issues, large portions of the electorate do not have coherent opinions. In fact, many simply answer survey questions as though they are flipping a coin.
>>
>> Though some political sophisticates do structure their opinions in a larger ideological framework, such structure is rare. This level of political sophistication (one's "level of conceptualization") is correlated positively with the respondent's level of education, degree of political involvement, and amount of political information.
Now here's Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels on the response to those data (which have been replicated):
>> Faced with this evidence, many scholars in the final chapters of their books continue to express idealistic hope that institutional reform, civic education, improved mass media, more effective mobilization of the poor, or stronger moral exhortation might bring public opinion into closer correspondence with the standards of the folk theory. But in sober moments most acknowledge the repeated failures of all those prescriptions. (Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government, 12)
What is up with Western intellectuals' consistent refusal to acknowledge facts about human nature and society?!?!
By the way, this is a great way to keep the populace predictable—by lying to them. By saying that the next thing will be better (and therefore vote for us!) without any empirical basis. Who knows whether the power elite actually know what is going on and whether all these scholars are merely the priests of a religion. There is reason to think that a lot of the economics research going on in the West is "mathematized religion".
I think my reiterating renders your reiterating obsolete. But you don't seem to think that, and I don't know why.
Consider the spaceship analogy. You can apply a small delta v at an unstable Lagrangian point and make a large ultimate trajectory change. But the spaceship is only at the unstable Lagrangian point for a small window of time; after that it is in a different region of the potential diagram and small delta v no longer has the same effect. You can't "build up" the effect of many small pushes to overcome thermal noise because only one (or a very small subset) of the pushes actually have a significant effect (in the absence of thermal noise).
If you are just saying in general that a lot of small pushes can add up to a big effect, sure, that's true, but now, as I said before, you're just waving your hands in a general direction, not giving a specific model that can be analyzed.
Luke said...
But my "reiterating" explicitly moves away from the spaceship analogy: "That push doesn't have to be localized to one point in space." All I'm depending on is that in the chaotic time-evolution of state, there is the distinct possibility of passing through states which are akin to unstable Lagrangian points. As far as I understand, *this does not have to be based on quantum uncertainty*. One must respect "Barriers of Relevance", here. Otherwise, one is being profoundly unempirical.
> If you are just saying in general that a lot of small pushes can add up to a big effect, sure, that's true, but now, as I said before, you're just waving your hands in a general direction, not giving a specific model that can be analyzed.
I don't have "a specific model". More reiterating:
> Luke: I would agree that I'm being vague; I am not aware of the precise mathematics which would describe chaotic behavior whereby an infinitesimal force—perhaps applied simultaneously at multiple different points within the chaotic substance (see my "nonseparable causation")—can alter the trajectory of the evolution of the system, picking between two semantically meaningful (and different) states (recall that I mentioned the concept of multiple realizability). …
> There is a big difference between requiring me to present you with a viable option of how infinitesimal forces could operate, and you saying that we know that no such forces could possibly be operating "in everyday life", given the experimental results we have from fundamental physics. You realize this, right? Possibly this is a situation like Galileo faced, whereby all was thought to be described (earth falls, fire rises) when there was a non-excluded middle: tangential motion exists and in fact leads to conclusive demonstrations of impetus (if not inertia). But you and Carroll seem very, very confident that there is no such non-excluded middle in this case. Would that an accurate description of your position, at least?
Your did respond to the first two sentences of the second paragraph:
> Peter: Sure. And if you and your physicist friends come up with an experiment that shows that such a thing is going on in people's brains when they exercise their free will, then by all means send me a copy of the paper you publish reporting the results. :-)
> Short of that, though, I'm not sure I could contribute anything useful to your efforts.
But the rest you ignored. And I say the rest is important—it's almost the crux of my entire argument! If I could give you "a specific model" or "the results", how confident are you that it would violate Carroll's Big Equation™? Let us recall that Carroll is explicitly reductionist: see his Downward Causation article.
what successes does physics have under its belt which are related to "electrons are real", which cannot actually be attributed to "the abstract electrons represented by these equations"?
You can't attribute any experimental success to an abstract electron; that's a map. It has to be due to the real electron, the thing out there in the territory. You can say that "experimental success" means "the territory did what the map predicted it would do", but that doesn't mean the map is out there in the territory producing your experimental results.
As a general comment: you seem to be thinking like a philosopher, not a physicist. You have a bunch of general principles in your head and you're trying to make everything you see fit them. That's backwards. You construct your map by exploring the territory; you don't decide first what your map is and then try to make the territory fit it.
You also seem to have a strong tendency for false dichotomies. For example:
To the extent that you want to refer to something more than the map when you say "electron", that can only mean something different if (i) you think map = territory when it comes to electrons, quarks, and EM forces; (ii) you think electrons in the territory are somehow more than electrons in the map. True, or false?
Mu. The territory is different from the map. It's not equal to the map. It's not "more" than the map. It's just a different thing. You brought up the whole map/territory distinction as though it were going to be helpful, but now it just seems to be confusing you more.
Or maybe it's just that we aren't being consistent enough in using map/territory language instead of something else:
If I measure each particle individually to the best of my ability, aggregate those measurements, and yet still cannot compute the collective property, then that would seem to make that collective property really real.
Huh? Suppose I can compute the collective property by aggregating individual measurements on the particles. Does that now make the collective property "not really real"? (What does that even mean?)
"Brains are made of electrons, quarks, and EM forces" means "if I take apart a brain, and then take apart the parts, and so on, I will eventually have electrons, quarks, and EM forces, and nothing else". In other words, it's describing the predicted result of a hypothetical experimental procedure. The thing that lets me make this prediction is a map. The things the prediction is about are territory.
Now consider these two statements:
"The mass of a hydrogen atom in its ground state is a collective property that can be computed by aggregating measurements of the masses of the proton and electron and the binding energy due to their interaction."
"Free will is a collective property that cannot be computed by aggregating measurements on the individual particles in a brain."
Both of these are also describing predictions. The first is a prediction that a bunch of numbers computed by different routes will match in a particular domain. The second is a prediction that no such computation is possible in another particular domain. Again, the things that produce these predictions are maps. The things the predictions are about are territory.
Now, does the difference between those two statements (one saying a computation is possible, the other not) mean that free will is "really real" but a hydrogen atom is not?
does the difference between those two statements (one saying a computation is possible, the other not) mean that free will is "really real" but a hydrogen atom is not?
Or, if "free will" is too problematic, try this version of the second statement:
"Solidity is a collective property that cannot be computed by aggregating measurements on the individual particles in a rock."
Does this mean the rock is "really real" but a hydrogen atom is not?
Luke said...
> You can't attribute any experimental success to an abstract electron; that's a map. It has to be due to the real electron, the thing out there in the territory.
No it doesn't have to be due to the real electron, it can be due to a real something else. You seem to just presuppose that scientific anti-realism couldn't possibly be true. You'd be like an anti-Newton, who insists that there really is "action at a distance", out there in reality. Then you would be devastated to find out that that was just a relic of the equations, that actually matter curves space and it is the curvature of space which attracts bodies. As far as I can tell, you've just utterly discounted d'Espagnat's "Trajectories and Misleading “Pieces of Evidence”"—without a shred of reasoning to support it.
> You can say that "experimental success" means "the territory did what the map predicted it would do", but that doesn't mean the map is out there in the territory producing your experimental results.
Correct. But the success of the map only gives you confidence that the map has some sort of [pretty good] homomorphism to reality and probably, some subset of reality where you don't know all the ceteris paribus conditions.
> As a general comment: you seem to be thinking like a philosopher, not a physicist.
Ok, then here's a physicist:
>> In truth, however, with regard to the knowledge of ultimate reality, one would be misguided to blindly trust the pure scientific method and to uncritically raise its results to the status of properties of Being. While physics is almost unerring in its equations, which scarcely meet with anything but successive improvements, making them suitable for the description of an ever-increasing diversity of phenomena, it must be granted that in its history, it has successively given rise to world views that have contradicted one another and that, therefore, can hardly be anything else than mere models. To be sure, such a criticism should not be taken as final, considering that science has arisen only in relatively recent times and that it has developed considerably during the past few decades. Nevertheless, it would be somewhat preposterous to unequivocally assert that any such model is a faithful description of what is. (In Search of Reality, 3)
Want to know another physicist who was also a philosopher? Albert Einstein.
> You have a bunch of general principles in your head and you're trying to make everything you see fit them. That's backwards. You construct your map by exploring the territory; you don't decide first what your map is and then try to make the territory fit it.
Honestly, this seems like a log and speck situation: you think everything about everyday life can be reduced to electrons, quarks, and the electromagnetic force. Despite "Barriers of Relevance" which make this impossible to test—at least reductionistically down to the Big Equation™ level. It is *I* who am suggesting that there might be more equally real things out there in reality! And I'm just opening the space for empirically possible phenomena which we'd then have to go out and test. Here's what I wrote a while ago:
> Luke: I believe—based on science—that sometimes we have to get patterns going in our consciousness before we can observe them out in reality. I can expand upon this if you'd like, although I first suggest checking out that link if your curiosity is piqued.
I don't have "a specific model"
Yes, which means there is no point in trying to convince me that your totally nonspecific handwaving has a significant probability of being correct. You just need to invest the time and effort yourself and see where it goes.
I say the rest is important—it's almost the crux of my entire argument!
Yes, which means there is no point in trying to convince me that your argument is correct, because to me it's just totally nonspecific handwaving and doesn't even constitute an argument. You just need to invest the time and effort yourself and see where it goes.
If I could give you "a specific model" or "the results", how confident are you that it would violate Carroll's Big Equation™?
"Violate" in what sense?
If "violate" just means "show something that can't, at our current state of knowledge, be explicitly computed from the Big Equation", I gave an example in a comment a little bit ago: solidity. Nobody knows how to compute solidity from the Big Equation. Does that mean solidity "violates" the Big Equation?
If "violate" means "show something that can be explicitly proven to be inconsistent with the Big Equation", that's a much stronger claim and my Bayesian prior is extremely high that it cannot be done. Does that answer your question?
Let us recall that Carroll is explicitly reductionist: see his Downward Causation article.
"Reductionist" is a buzz word. As far as I can tell, Carroll is saying the same thing that I said in my second statement above about the word "violate". He's not saying that higher level entities aren't real; in fact he explicitly says the opposite. He's just saying that, whatever we find out about higher level entities, it will never be inconsistent with the Big Equation. "Downward Causation" would mean finding something that was.
it doesn't have to be due to the real electron, it can be due to a real something else
You're confusing map with territory again. "Electron", referring to the territory, is whatever is causing the phenomena we label with that name. It makes no sense to say the thing that is causing the phenomena is not the thing that is causing the phenomena, but something else.
"Electron", referring to the map, can refer to different things, because there can be different maps--different models, at different levels of accuracy, using different concepts. But all of them refer to the same "electron" in the territory--the same whatever-it-is that is causing the phenomena we label with the name "electron".
here's a physicist
Talking about philosophy, in a popular book. Try finding a physicist who says stuff like this in a peer-reviewed paper. You can't. Why? Because "peer-reviewed" means other people who actually know the subject are checking what you say and calling bullshit when appropriate.
Want to know another physicist who was also a philosopher? Albert Einstein.
There have been plenty of physicists who were also philosophers. So what?
If you want a somewhat more substantive response, my general impression is that physicists who try to do philosophy don't generally do it very well. But then I think philosophers in general don't do it very well, so I'm biased. :-)
However, the point of my comment was more specific: by "thinking like a philosopher" I meant "losing touch with the actual real stuff--the territory--that we are talking about". "Electron" is not just some word that labels a few diagrams in textbooks. Physicists have been observing electrons for more than a century, and that only counts the time since people began to understand that there was a common cause involved among a lot of widely different phenomena. "Electron" is the name we give to a common causal factor in a whole collection of phenomena: oil drop experiments, beta rays from nuclear reactions, spots on screens in cathode ray tubes, emission and absorption of light producing spectral lines, static electricity in my laundry, etc. etc. The whole point of the label "electron" is that all of these phenomena have a causal factor in common. We believe this because we have constructed detailed maps involving a model of this causal factor that make accurate predictions of all these phenomena. Once you have grokked all this, what does it even mean to say "all that stuff could have been caused by something else"?
you think everything about everyday life can be reduced to electrons, quarks, and the electromagnetic force.
I have said no such thing. I have said that all the things we deal with in everyday life are made of electrons, quarks, and EM forces. Big difference.
Luke said...
> > I don't have "a specific model"
> Yes, which means there is no point in trying to convince me that your totally nonspecific handwaving has a significant probability of being correct. You just need to invest the time and effort yourself and see where it goes.
You just don't see how I'm trying to open up a range of physical possibilities which seem 100% consistent with the Big Equation™ as long as it isn't taken as a complete theory? (See my David Bohm excerpt.)
> > I say the rest is important—it's almost the crux of my entire argument!
> Yes, which means there is no point in trying to convince me that your argument is correct, because to me it's just totally nonspecific handwaving and doesn't even constitute an argument. You just need to invest the time and effort yourself and see where it goes.
But Sean Carroll's Seriously, The Laws Underlying The Physics of Everyday Life Really Are Completely Understood purports to be scientific knowledge—to extremely high confidence—that what I'm looking for does not exist. I want to know why that confidence is justified—if in fact it is. I think I've dispatched the idea that "if it were incomplete such that it matters for everyday life, we'd have seen so in physics experiments run to-date", while you apparently do not.
> "Violate" in what sense?
In the sense of there being more fundamental causal powers than just those specified in the Big Equation™, causal powers relevant to everyday life. Remember that Carroll is claiming completeness when it comes to (i) the fundamental causal powers at play; (ii) when the domain is restricted to everyday life.
> "Reductionist" is a buzz word. As far as I can tell, Carroll is saying the same thing that I said in my second statement above about the word "violate". He's not saying that higher level entities aren't real; in fact he explicitly says the opposite. He's just saying that, whatever we find out about higher level entities, it will never be inconsistent with the Big Equation. "Downward Causation" would mean finding something that was.
Right. If I were to talk in terms of "supervenience", you'd probably accuse me of being an empirically-detached philosopher. Do you enjoy being the instructor for Kobayashi Maru?
Look, I'm perfectly happy for the Big Equation™ to be an approximation which works fantastically in some domains. Because of the noise floor, predictions of Newtonian mechanics cannot be empirically distinguished from predictions of general relativity in much of life. I just think if we overextend the domains of validity, we might blind ourselves to how reality actually works. From what I can see, you are rather blasé about this.
Sean Carroll's Seriously, The Laws Underlying The Physics of Everyday Life Really Are Completely Understood purports to be scientific knowledge—to extremely high confidence—that what I'm looking for does not exist. I want to know why that confidence is justified
I just think if we overextend the domains of validity, we might blind ourselves to how reality actually works.
...the domain of validity of the Big Equation is Everyday Life. Plus a lot of stuff that isn't even part of everyday life, like particle physics experiments.
Perhaps it's worth expanding on this "domain of validity" thing a bit. I'm assuming that what you are looking for is something that could make, say, nerve signals in your brain do something that is not consistent with the Big Equation. But that would mean that electrons, quarks, and EM forces in your brain are doing something that is not consistent with the Big Equation, because your brain is made of electrons, quarks, and EM forces. And (this is going to sound like a broken record) if electrons, quarks, and EM forces could do anything, under the conditions in your brain (temperature 310 K, density around the density of water, pressure roughly 1 atmosphere, etc.), that was not consistent with the Big Equation, we would have seen it in experiments we've already done, because we've done lots of experiments to see if electrons, quarks, and EM forces under those conditions (and a much wider range of conditions) do anything that is not consistent with the Big Equation, and we've failed to find any such thing. That is what I mean when I say the domain of validity of the Big Equation includes our brains, bodies, and all of the objects we deal with in everyday life.
Now it might be that I've misinterpreted what you're looking for. It might be that you'd be satisfied with something that, while it didn't make electrons, quarks, and EM forces in your brain do anything that wasn't consistent with the Big Equation, involved some kind of "collective phenomenon" that worked very differently from any of the collective phenomena we currently know of (like neuron firings, neurotransmitters, hormones, etc.). If that's all you're looking for, of course the Big Equation can't rule that out, because nobody has an exhaustive list of all the possible collective phenomena that the Big Equation could be consistent with. And we might never have such a list if there are Barriers of Relevance involved that screen off the collective phenomena at a higher level from the details at lower levels. (The proposal about quantum phenomena in microtubules that I mentioned earlier in this discussion is an example of a proposed "collective phenomenon" of this kind.)
I personally don't think that this second alternative is likely either; but my Bayesian prior that it won't happen is much lower than my Bayesian prior that we will never discover brains, bodies, or objects we deal with in everyday life doing anything that is inconsistent with the Big Equation.
Luke said...
> I'm assuming that what you are looking for is something that could make, say, nerve signals in your brain do something that is not consistent with the Big Equation.
If you ever thought you're the only one who has had to repeat stuff in this conversation, please disabuse yourself of that now.
(1) It started here:
Luke: I think you and I mean rather different things with that term "chosen". I don't need to assert libertarian free will; I can just question monistic determinism / physicalism.
> Peter: What other alternative is there? "Libertarian free will" just means "free will doesn't have to follow physical laws".
But it is possible to follow the Big Equation with fundamental forces in addition to the Big Four (or 1+3-in-1). That's because the Big Equation is not complete. It does not capture all possible structure and declare anything else to be pure indeterministic noise. Only a philosophical closure gets you that. That's what Bohm claimed and you've provided zero reason to doubt it. And so, there can be additional structure (including additional fundamental causal powers) without being inconsistent with the empirical component of the Big Equation. That is, the component actually supported by experiment.
(2) I also said the following and I stand by it:
> Luke: One thing I'm doing in my push toward an understanding of free will not restricted to the current laws of physics (that is, no other forces allowed) is to ensure that our current science stays falsifiable. In Intersubjectivity is Key, I note that there are two kinds of falsification: (I) contradiction; (II) incompleteness. I claim it's actually much harder to show (II). That's actually what Galileo did; he noticed that there was an in-between state in Aristotle's physics, between fire which goes upward and earth which goes downward. What about tangential motion? I'm no Galileo, but I worry that we humans suck at unearthing (II). We so desperately want to have described everything [relevant], at least at some "fundamental" level.
> Luke: I also don't understand why anything which might act contrary to Core Theory (I mainly mean "having more structure than", rather than "contradictory to") at the everyday level would necessarily have been observed in physics experiments.
I don't understand why you seem to have such a problem with (i) there being more structure [including fundamental causal powers] than Carroll's Big Equation specifies; (ii) which is relevant to everyday life; (iii) which doesn't violate the Big Equation. I don't understand why you have to construe this as a matter of "not consistent with the Big Equation".
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Posted in Community, Exhibitions, fairs & shows, Reviews, Social Justice, Textiles on display, Theory and debate by Ruth Singer
Before I visited Festival of Quilts earlier this year, I was thinking about another world where something other than quilts were on display in a huge, annual competition. I was inspired by Fashion Fictions which Dr Amy Twigger Holroyd introduced in Making Meaning Live where alternative versions of the world are explored where there are restrictions on clothing or fabric production as a way of creatively imagining ways to address over-production and over-consumption.
First of all I pondered a world where it wasn’t possible to buy new fabric to cut up and sew it back together into patchwork… where we had to use scraps to make patchwork for practical purposes if cloth wasn’t so over-abundant and little-valued like it is here and now.
I was also thinking about alternative cloth / sewn things that might have become popular to make other than quilts. Why have quilts become the thing we make for pleasure, creativity or retail? What if patchwork had never grown into the art form it is now? What other large-scale textiles might there be on display? Flags? Sails? Banners? Unique handmade garments?
That led me down a route of thinking about protest banners and political or social banners which were so important in the 19th century and how they are such a small part of our textile world now compared to quilts. Banners were an extraordinary art form in the 19th and early 20th century and an important means for women to use their skills and creativity to further a cause or social issue or promote a sense of belonging for a community. It’s something I keep coming back to myself for my own work – and I’ve started in a miniature way with my Protest Pincushion, a tiny sort of banner! (This was not in the Festival of Quilts because it’s too small and it’s not a quilt.)
Community quilts and group textile project, sometimes with a political or social message, were such a big thing during the pandemic and this demonstrated just how powerful and meaningful collective message-making. I found it so interesting to explore this in the Textiles in Lockdown podcast which I’ve republished as Making Meaning episode 18.
Thinking about this has made me appreciate group quilts and projects more and I’m really interested in exploring what is out there in the world of textile with a message. I visited the banners exhibition in the Textile Biennial in 2019 which was really amazing but it makes me sad and frustrated that banners aren’t as well-explored art form as quilts and there isn’t a place for banners to be shown annually, to be awarded prizes and publicity and where we can come together to make textiles that have a positive impact and use resources consciously.
So let’s imagine a fictional world where using precious textile resources was only acceptable when the finished piece had to say something. It had to be activist, community-made or share a message. Imagine those halls of the NEC full of protest banners or social group banners proclaiming their important social message. There is a competition for the best banner in a number of categories such as activism, community groups, human rights, image-based, text-based, political… and then I thought why aren’t they the groupings that quilts are entered into now? Why isn’t there a ‘statement’ category at Festival of Quilts? I really think there should be.
So with all these thoughts in mind, I visited the Festival of Quilts with the intention of seeing just how many pieces in the open competition had an obvious political, social, personal or community message. I know there will be some I didn’t see and I’m sure there were plenty of others that had a message but it wasn’t visually immediately obvious and was maybe more apparent in the artist statements in the catalogue, but I didn’t have one and very much didn’t have time to read them all.
Grenfell Memorial Quilts
and unknown
From Kansas to Kyiv –
I was so delighted to find so many with a message ranging from very subtle commentary within quilts to pieces overtly political or with a powerful, meaningful statement. I expected to find pieces made by groups with a strong meaning or message and I was amply rewarded. Quilts have a great history of being used by groups to come together and share emotions or to make a point or a message, partly because of their ideal format for individuals to make a piece which is then assembled into a whole. It really is a great vehicle for community practice and one which I have used myself many times.
The Grenfell Memorial Quilts were by far the most impactful pieces at the show, partly due to the size of them but mainly due to the impact and meaning behind them. I can’t help feeling though that they didn’t get the space, prominence or display impact they deserved, maybe because they are wonky and imperfect and very much community-made which is always a contrast to the perfection of competition quilts. There’s a place for both of course. I would LOVE to see community arts practice given the stage it really deserves in galleries and in society but that’s probably another blog post / life’s work.
The Sophie Hayes Foundation was a brilliant example of this kind of work done really well, and clearly with a bigger budget and structure behind it than the grassroots Grenfell Quilts. These really combined powerful messages, excellent craftsmanship and really good marketing. I don’t mean that I thought they were in any way ‘better’ than the Grenfell quilts, they are just differently produced and presented.
I really enjoyed hunting out pieces with a political, personal or social commentary within the competition quilts. As this isn’t a category of quilts to enter, they were dotted around and I am sure I missed lots. The group quilts category is a good place to look for statement pieces, there are still some covid-related pieces and I am sure I will have missed many of these shown last year when I didn’t attend. There are a number of them in Textiles in Lockdown and I know there are hundreds of them around. What fantastic records of life experience during 2020 they are.
Here are some of the pieces I spotted.
Chris English
Stitchers and makers from
45 group members
together.
Stitchers and makers from
45 group members
together.
78 group members
78 group members
Covid Group Quilt
coordinated by Caroline
69 group members
coordinated by Caroline
69 group members
I would love to hear from makers of these or other quilts or textiles with a message. Where do you show and share your work? What’s the place for this kind of impactful textile? How would you change the textile world to allow more space for stitch with something to say?
artist, banners, exhibition, festival of quilts, grenfell memorial quilts, maker, quilt, quilter, quilts, sophie Hayes foundation, textiles 2 Comments
Criminal Quilts Exhibition at Erewash Museum
Posted in Criminal Quilts, Exhibitions, My work by Ruth Singer
A new version of Ruth Singer’s Criminal Quilts exhibition is now open at Erewash Museum, Ilkeston, Derbyshire until 15th June 2021.
Museums are open again! I’m so pleased to have got this version of the exhibition open just a couple of week’s later than it should have been. Erewash Museum is a lovely old building, just perfect for showing a smaller version of Criminal Quilts in an intimate domestic scale space. With social distancing in place, I installed this entirely by myself so the small gallery space was welcome! I have added a time-lapse of putting up one of the piece at the end of this post for your entertainment. The exhibition is free and the museum is open Tuesday, Thursday and Saturdays 10.30am-3pm. You will need to book in advance with the museum.
I’m pleased to have been able to fit in most of the larger exhibition pieces but I have now retired the small framed mini quilts from the show to make space for new 3D collaboration work, some of which is shown for the first time. I’ll add more information about these works to the website soon so those further afield can also enjoy them.
artist, Derbyshire, exhibition, quilts, textile artist, textiles Leave a comment
Posted in Criminal Quilts, Exhibitions, My work by Ruth Singer
While my Criminal Quilts exhibition is behind bars (in boxes), I have created a free online version of the exhibition. I’ve included lots of high resolution images including details of embroidery, quilting and showing textures and stitches as much as possible. All the exhibition panels, labels and other resources are also on my website for you to explore. There’s also a digital version of the exhibition display book which includes some case studies and historical information. The only thing missing is the surreptitious touching of textiles which you aren’t supposed to do! It also includes work which is now sold and no longer in exhibitions and pieces which haven’t been in all the versions of the touring exhibition. Very soon there will be some brand new work added which is currently in my studio awaiting photographs.
Don’t forget to visit the gift shop after your visit… There are copies of the Criminal Quilts book, greetings cards with my original digital designs and a handful of postcard packs available too.
There’s also a virtual donation box if you would like to support my future work.
crime, Criminal Quilts, criminals, exhibition, quilts, Ruth Singer, textiles Leave a comment
Posted in Books, creativity by Ruth Singer
I’ve made a colouring book! I created a sort-of colouring book for my library commission earlier this year, and really loved doing it. It reminded me that I wanted to make a patchwork pattern colouring book a few years ago, but never had the time. I’ve made the time and now it’s ready.
My book of patchwork drawings is more than just a colouring book, it is a place to play with creative ideas, to try new colour combinations, patterns and really stretch your creativity. This A5 book (15x21cm 6x8in) has 14 hand-drawn designs inspired by original antique patchwork quilts which I have created meticulously for your enjoyment. I love using patchwork as inspiration for creative drawing and colouring and I am sure you will love these too. The paper is nice and thick, suitable for watercolour as well as pens, chalk makers and pencils. There are also two pages for you to create your own designs with a helpful grid to guide you. I have also included 6 pages of full colour designs with lots of tips and ideas to make this colouring book really special.
The colouring book is £9.50. I can post all over the world too. You can find it in my online shop, along with books, textiles and much more.
book, colouring, creativity, patchwork, pattern, quilts, Ruth Singer 2 Comments
Criminal Quilts film
Posted in Criminal Quilts, Projects by Ruth Singer
Roll out the red carpet for the premiere of my new Criminal Quilts film!
This will also be shown at Festival of Quilts and most other exhibitions, technology-permitting.
Made by the lovely R & A Collaborations, filmed at Staffordshire Record Office and University of Wolverhampton, with thanks to Jan, Jan, Jan and Ann. Yes, I got all three Jans on one film!
Posted in Art Textiles, Exhibitions, Fabric Manipulation, Inspiration, My work, Textile History by Ruth Singer
As I develop new work for my Fragments exhibition in the summer, I am investigating and exploring a lot of old quilts. I am continuing to explore my photographs and notes from the research visit to the Quilt Association’s collections in February and creating new technique ideas based on the structures, designs and history of the quilts. I am also investigating the antique quilts and pieces which I own myself and working out ways of incorporating elements from these pieces into new work.
I have also been investigating my own collections of quilts and bits, engaging in Quilt Archaeology (credit to someone on Instagram but alas I forget who). What interests me is not the fineness of the stitching or the patchwork patterns but the textures, the tactility and the reasons these quilts were made and used (or not). I’ve been using drawing, painting, mark making and print techniques to explore my ideas, some of which are very large scale which will have dramatic impact and some much smaller and more intimate, like the quilts themselves, and invite close consideration.
Meanwhile, my Harefield Hospital Centenary Quilt project has been featured this week on the People’s History of the NHS blog.
Rowan leaves to represent Rowan Ward. Hand embroidery.
patchwork, quilt association, quilts, Ruth Singer, textiles 1 Comment
Fragments – Researching a new series of work
Posted in Art Textiles, Exhibitions, Inspiration, My work by Ruth Singer
Small fragments of cloth combined to make a greater whole. Each stitch, each thread, each moment of the maker contribute to a broad canvas of narrative.
I have been invited by the Quilt Association to showcase some work in their summer show and chose to spend time developing new work inspired by their collections. Fragments is a series of work in textile and mixed media developed from my research with these quilts, from years of considering antique textiles and the stories they hold and from my desire to express my thoughts about museum collections through making.
For me, the joy of this collection is that it is mainly rescued quilts – saved from charity shops, from life as dust sheets and from languishing forgotten and unloved in garages. This collection does not aim to be a representative array of fine Welsh quilts it merely (and importantly) aims to save old quilts so others may study and enjoy their making. While the quilts vary enormously in age, provenance, quality and condition, they share a defining characteristic of narrative. Many of the locally-made quilts come with priceless stories about their making or their family history (accurate or otherwise) and those which do not have equally exquisite (to me at least) stories of tragic retirements in sheds and subsequent rescue. The stories which these quilts embody interest me as much as the cut of the cloth and the finesse of the stitching.
The quilts speak of poverty and extravagance, of luxury and desperation, of comfort and of tragedy. They tell stories not just of their making but of their long lives. Some have been repurposed to catch paint or oil spills when handmade quilts had no charm or value. Some were made from the humblest of materials to keep loved ones warm and were never intended to be preserved, admired or studied. Others have had harder lives in the more recent past – badly repaired and hacked about or nearly ruined by machine washing with the best of intentions but with the most damaging effects.
To quilt enthusiasts, my preference for the discoloured reverse, the wrecked by laundering, the oil and paint-spattered and the pieced army blankets may be puzzling. But I am not a quilter, not a quilt scholar (except I admit of trapunto quilting) and I do not look at these pieces of old cloth as a someone who wishes to chart the piecing pattern or pass judgement on the number of stitches per inch. The humbler the better for me. The feel of the quilt is most important to me. What it says about those who made it, bought it, sold it, used it, abused it, preserved it and mended it interests me far more. My training in museum work taught me to look at objects from every angle, exploring every possible story to understand the thing as a whole, not as a purely visual object. As an artist I choose to look from one very specific angle and to explore that rich seam of narrative in as much detail as I can. I am interested in sharing, through my making, how these quilts make me feel.
I will be sharing the development of this work over the next six months on the blog and social media. You can also keep in touch via my email newsletter once a fortnight.
Alongside this new work I will also be showing my Fine Art Quilt Masters winning piece and other pieces from the Criminal Quilts series. The exhibition takes place at Minerva Arts Centre, Llanidloes, Mid Wales 5 August 2017 – 16 September 2017. I am also running a three-day Summer School on Experimental Quilting 31 August 2017 – 2 September 2017 (full details to come shortly).
antique, commission, heritage, Inspiration, quilt, quilt association, quilts, Ruth Singer 5 Comments
Festival of Quilts
Posted in Exhibitions, fairs & shows by Ruth Singer
The Festival of Quilts at Birmingham NEC starts on Thursday 6th August and runs until Sunday 10th. This year I have a stand (E6) where I will be displaying some of my recent work, collecting textile memories and showing work in progress. I’ll have books, fabrics, trapunto quilting supplies and kits for sale too.
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People ask me what things I do daily that makes a difference in my life. There are a few, but 2 of them I would like to share with you. I cannot urge you enough to add these to your own life. When you hear what they are, you might wonder if I, and more importantly you, have to do them every day. I would respond with a question of my own – Do you really want an amazing life? Do you want less stress and more joy and fulfillment? Do you want to love deeper and laugh more often? Then yes, than you should absolutely do these 2 things every day. You can even do them several times a day, if you are very driven and ambitious. That is not necessary, but will speed up any improvement you will experience.
Just like the picture at the start of this post says, these are small improvements. They are of the 1% variety. You may not think they will make much of an impact or difference. Again, like the picture above, 1% everyday over the course of a year really adds up. It is not, however, 365%. If you know about compounding interest, you are improving 1% on someone who is 1% better than yesterday, so it compounds. Over the course of a year, you will end up 37 times better! All from making small, almost imperceptible shifts once a day. That is a lot of return for not a lot of effort.
Secret number one to creating an amazing life is listen to or read a little something that will help you improve yourself everyday. This doesn’t have to be an entire book. It can be something as simple as a YouTube video. Keeping yourself inspired and motivated is not a one-time event. Zig Ziglar said it best, “People say motivation doesn’t last. Neither does bathing – that’s why we recommend it daily.” You can listen in your car. You can wake up 15 minutes before the rest of the house to read a few pages of something inspirational. You can listen to an audiobook on your morning commute. There is always time to sneak something in. I cannot convey in words strong enough what a difference this has made in my life. Do not take my word for it. Prove it to yourself. For just one month, listen or read something everyday that inspires or motivates you. I challenge you to prove this to yourself.
The second secret? You guessed it. Learn something, at least one thing, everyday. This can happen in so many different ways. The world and its experiences are teaching us something all of the time. What makes this even more powerful, is if you do some focused learning. Pick a subject that is very important to you and add to your base of knowledge about it. Today, I decided that I should listen to some videos that offered ways in which you could improve your intimate relationships. Now, I think I am a fairly good man to my beautiful Margie. I actually work very hard to be so. That does not change the fact that I do not know everything. If I could improve my wonderful loving relationship by 1% a day for 365 days, how loving would we be? You can spread this knowledge growing around to several subjects. One day it could be videos about improving your relationship. The next day, an audiobook on the way to work about how to increase your self-discipline. The following day? How about a book of parenting tips? The word is full of knowledge to be gained. Even a little bit everyday will make a huge impact.
People ask me if they really have to do this everyday. My answer? No, you have the gift of opportunity to do this everyday. You don’t even need to spend any money. There are resources online, not mention a library in almost every city with thousands of books. Can you imagine having the knowledge of just 1% of those books? Can you picture the positive impact that would have on your life? These are 2 things that I do, without fail, every day. The difference in my life cannot be understated. Do it today!
Self-Help
Published by drrock00
A bartender and Postal worker by trade I was witness to the overwhelming negativity that is so common in todays society. A firm believer in the motto "Better to light a candle than curse the darkness" I created this site to bring some of the positivity back into the world and share with otheres. View all posts by drrock00
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Do you want to remodel your home properly? Are you having trouble deciding on the perfect colors or patterns for your walls? The easiest way to get the walls painted in the style of your dreams is to hire a trustworthy professional painter. Although painting might appear like an easy process, it requires much effort and skill to be done with maximum perfection.
Marin County, situated in the San Francisco Bay Area’s northwest, is ranked no. 64 among urban areas with robust economies. Natural beauty, family-friendly communities, convenient access to San Francisco, and abundant recreational and cultural opportunities are just a few of Marin County’s special features that make for an excellent way of life. Regarding taking care of your house, Marin painting services provide premium painting for both residential and commercial buildings’ interiors and exteriors. Find below the reasons to opt for these services-
They Will Have All The Types Of Equipment
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They Are Experienced
Nothing beats a brand-new paint color, whether painting an entire house or just one room. A space might appear brand new with a great paint job. You can recognize the distinction when a homeowner hires a skilled painting company. Professionals devote years to perfecting their craft. They are pretty talented artists, which is evident in the final product. A seasoned painter has completed almost all types of painting projects. They have also dealt with some of the most typical and complex problems when painting a home.
By employing appropriate painting techniques, professional Marin painters help you save money. This aids them in avoiding the costly errors that beginners make. You can avoid spending extra money from your budget on mistakes and damage repairs by hiring an expert. You won’t have to stress about wasting money on inferior materials.
One of the most notable and wealthy regions in the San Francisco Bay area, Marin County is well known for its many exquisite architectural styles. There are various architectural styles, including Craftsman homes, Cape Cod homes, modern estates, etc. Whatever property you own, Marin painting ensures that your house is painted with high-quality paints and has a high-quality finish.
They Offer Guarantee
Some businesses that provide painting services have an excellent work guarantee. But it would help if you only worked with companies that offer warranties. This is so that you can stay carefree, knowing that your home will look lovely once the project is finished.
They Offer Expert Advice
A high-quality paint job requires the correct type of paint and the appropriate tools. Be aware that there are more considerations than just picking the kind of color, such as glossy or flat paint for your exterior or interior walls. A skilled painter will help you choose the type of paint that will last for a long time in all weather circumstances for your area.
To summarize, proper house maintenance is essential, and if you want your house to look amazing, the best choice is to hire a professional painter. Since professionals are skilled at what they do, you will receive value for your money. Call professionals if you’re looking for a business that provides high-quality services at a reasonable cost. No matter what, they’ll make sure your house looks fantastic.
Radhe
Would you want to convert more people? Would your desired role include international travel or do the majority of it from within the office environment with some fieldwork mixed in every now and again?"
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On leaked tape of GOP lawmakers, Faso urges Congress not to use insurance bill to defund Planned Parenthood | Watershed Post
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On leaked tape of GOP lawmakers, Faso urges Congress not to use insurance bill to defund Planned Parenthood
In a closed-door session at a Republican policy retreat in Philadelphia this week, GOP members of the House and Senate privately worried about the political consequences of their party's push for a rapid repeal of the Affordable Care Act. Among those who spoke out: Freshman Congressional representative John Faso, a Republican representing NY-19, who told fellow lawmakers that attaching a measure to defund Planned Parenthood to health insurance legislation would be "walking into a giant political trap," and thereby "arming our enemy in this debate."
Recordings of the private session were anonymously leaked to several papers, and the Washington Post published a story earlier today. The article quotes several GOP lawmakers discussing worries that if not handled properly, the repeal process will harm their constituents, the insurance market, and possibly their own re-election prospects.
From the Post's story:
Rep. John Faso (R-N.Y.), a freshman congressman from the Hudson Valley, warned strongly against using the repeal of the ACA to also defund Planned Parenthood. “We are just walking into a gigantic political trap if we go down this path of sticking Planned Parenthood in the health insurance bill,” he said. “If you want to do it somewhere else, I have no problem, but I think we are creating a political minefield for ourselves — House and Senate.”...
...Faso warned that by defunding Planned Parenthood in the reconciliation bill, “we are arming our enemy in this debate.”
“To me, us taking retribution on Planned Parenthood is kind of morally akin to what Lois Lerner and Obama and the IRS did against tea party groups,” he said, a reference to accusations that the Internal Revenue Service improperly targeted conservative political groups for audits.
Faso continued: “Health insurance is going to be tough enough for us to deal with without having millions of people on social media come to Planned Parenthood’s defense and sending hundreds of thousands of new donors to the Democratic Senate and Democratic congressional campaign committees. So I would just urge us to rethink this.”
Washington Post reporter Mike DeBonis writes that the paper contacted lawmakers mentioned in the story, and that they verified the quotes obtained from the recording.
Faso, who has publicly expressed worries about rushing to dismantle Obamacare too quickly, is one of five Republican freshmen serving on the budget committee in the House of Representatives. The budget committee is playing a particularly important role in the repeal of the ACA, and has already produced a budget bill -- passed by the House in a 227-198 party-line vote -- that will prevent Democrats from filibustering replacement health insurance legislation.
Faso has also told constituents that he would not vote to defund Planned Parenthood, according to a letter from a West Hurley resident published earlier this month in the Daily Freeman.
The new Congressman is already facing intense social media pressure from pro-choice constituents, who left hundreds of angry comments on his Facebook page after Faso posted a statement about his vote in favor of H.R. 7, a bill that would penalize private insurance companies that cover abortion by making their enrollees ineligible for tax credits, and would make the annually-renewed Hyde Amendment ban on federal funding of most abortions permanent. The bill passed the House on Tuesday and is headed to the Senate for a vote.
Update, 9:05 p.m.: The Times-Union's Capitol bureau chief, Casey Seiler, has more on this. In a blog post this afternoon, Seiler posted a fuller transcript of Faso's comments at the retreat; according to the post, Faso also said that the idea of pulling funding from Planned Parenthood and giving it to other healthcare providers "doesn't work in my district."
Faso also spoke with the Times-Union about his stance on Planned Parenthood:
In an interview, Faso said that his position on Planned Parenthood remains the same: As long as an organization is properly providing services in a licensed and legal fashion, it should not be targeted out of “political spite” — regardless of what party is doing the targeting. Based on that yardstick, he does not believe Planned Parenthood deserves to have its funding eliminated.
Asked about his reaction to the release of his comments, Faso said, “Nothing surprises me in politics — but it was a confidential, off-the-record meeting.”
Faso also did an interview with WAMC this evening, affirming that he would not vote to defund the organization in a separate vote. From WAMC's story:
In an interview with WAMC Friday evening, Rep. Faso said the comment "If you want to do it somewhere else, I have no problem..." was legislative shorthand. Faso said that he stood by his comments in the meeting that Planned Parenthood defunding should not be part of any bills tied to the replacement of the Affordable Care Act.
Faso said he was the last to speak in a meeting that ended hastily, with lawmakers due at a luncheon with the president and vice president.
Faso, speaking by phone, noted that the Hyde amendment already bans federal funds from being used for abortion procedures. Faso, who has described himself as pro-life for many years, including when he ran for governor in 2006, said if a separate up-or-down vote on Planned Parenthood funding came up in the House, he would vote for the status quo, effectively keeping the organization funded.
"This is not the vehicle to bring this up," he said. "The point is that it should not be in a health insurance bill."
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A bio is a detailed account of an individual’s life. It consists of much more than standard realities, but it additionally consists of the experiences of that individual. Bios can be exceptionally moving and motivating, specifically if they are composed by a person who was close to the subject. A bio is an excellent means to find out more regarding the individual you enjoy.
The first step in composing a bio is to determine your target market. This will aid you identify just how to structure the biography. You must make it a point to address your target market’s demands and also problems. Your objective is to convey who you are, what you do, and why they should appreciate your work or personal life. A biography can be formally composed, personal, or even amusing. For instance, a college application biography should be formal, while one for social networks need to be a little bit extra light-hearted.
Bios can also take the type of a fictional tale. An imaginary biography may include mixing genuine historic accounts with imaginary occasions as well as personalities. This makes for a more fascinating story, and it still includes research study. However, there is a great deal more freedom in this kind of biography. Inevitably, a bio needs to be an appealing, entertaining read.
A bio can take many kinds, but the most crucial element is a clear tale. While biographical writing is largely a nonfiction genre, much of the techniques you use to create a book can likewise be used in biography writing. Narration methods, such as characterization and also plot structuring, are very transferable from fiction to biography writing. Also, it is essential to establish themes and link the individual to the global. Nevertheless, be careful not to force themes into a bio, or it will certainly find as phony as well as may switch off your visitor.
Bios that are based upon study can be challenging. They commonly vary from those that are based on firsthand expertise. Creating a biography that is based upon research study can be an extremely individual and psychological venture. A bio that depends on meetings might be less effective than one written by a professional. Consequently, biographies should always be carried out in partnership with a specialist.
Biographies are a fundamental part of history, and the public’s right to understand the fact about a person need to be stabilized with their right to privacy. Biographers need to make certain not to misrepresent the subject in their work, and also they need to recognize all of their study resources. An excellent bio should likewise stay clear of predisposition as well as individual judgment. This is a challenging balance to strike. This is not an easy task, yet it is important for the sake of historic accuracy.
Biographies can additionally focus on a team of people. For instance, a biography could be a background of a group centuries back. Maybe regarding the main individual from that team, or it could be regarding an unsung hero from background. Either way, the objective is to inform the tale of that group as well as how they shaped the world.
Bios are one of the earliest types of literature. Writers have been tape-recording the lives of fantastic leaders given that old times. At first, biographies were merely historical records, yet they evolved right into social impressives. For example, Plato’s Apology records a part of Socrates’ life, while the Gospels of the Christian Scriptures attribute 4 bios regarding Jesus Christ. In the seventeenth century, James Boswell re-shaped the concept of a bio in his Life of Samuel Johnson.
Bios need comprehensive research study as well as planning. The author must provide a truthful, thorough account of the person’s life. It must consist of every detail about the person, including his youth. It should also be clear what obstacles and challenges the subject run into. Finally, it must interest the reader. A biography is a beneficial piece of literary works and also can be made use of in practically any type of discipline.
A bio is a comprehensive account of an individual’s life. It contains greater than just standard truths about the individual’s life, yet additionally their very own experience of certain events in the life. It can also include details about a person’s accomplishments, personal partnerships, and other vital details. Bios are popular books due to the fact that they can provide a wealth of info for viewers.
A biography has to be honest and unbiased. It needs to stay clear of misstating the subject, acknowledge sources and also avoid personal prejudice. It must likewise answer universal inquiries. This makes it essential to discover a person’s background and the most accurate methods to represent it in a biographical job. A biographer’s choices can have a terrific effect on how the bio is received.
Much of the greatest works of bio have actually been created by biographers who had close relationships with the topics. Tacitus’ Agricola is a classic instance, as was William Roper’s Sir Thomas Extra biography. Various other writers include Johann Peter Eckermann’s Conversations with Goethe, Ernest Jones’ Life and Work of Sigmund Freud, and also James Boswell’s Life of Samuel Johnson.
A biographer’s purpose in creating a biography is to entertain the reader. That is why biographers use traditional plot structures to give the life story narrative a shape and make it interesting. This is very important because the flow of an individual’s life does not produce an especially engaging piece of literary works. Additionally, it’s not constantly needed to consist of whatever in one biography. Deanna Deveney Esquire
A biography has to be well-written and also need to convey the biographee’s character as well as biography. Biographers should avoid making their subject look negative as well as should stress positive aspects concerning them. It should likewise include a description of the topic’s personal features as well as success. The bio ought to be interesting and also authoritative, and also it has to mirror the person’s level of experience in the field. Biographers should write their bio in the 3rd person, as it is a lot more helpful for the audience.
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Michele Marks makes no excuses for her sinister side, and her studly and submissive man agrees to whatever she throws his way, even when it includes him sniffing up her nasty farts! This is one fetish he does not favor, but in an effort to do whateve... 4607 views
Spunky Royalty treated her fart slave to a clothed facesitting session recently, and he seems to have learned to love her ass stench, as he was complaint-free when she sat on his face with her bare bottom and pushed farts into his waiting nose. He ev... 5817 views
Amber Star's fart slave tasted and sniffed her farts, but he had no choice in the matter! She was sitting on his face with her sizable black booty centered on his mouth and nose. Amber wore a sexy thong, but that flimsy fabric did nothing to filter t... 5822 views
Awesome Amber Star is happiest when she has her fart slave under her ass as she makes him sniff and taste her putrid toots. With her sitting on his face, he has no place to go when she's gassy and giving him every single fart in full. Per his reactio... 10125 views
Have you had a chance to check out how Jazzy Jamison likes to treat her fart slave? Her generous ass goes into overdrive when she sits on her submissive's face! She even details to him what she ate. He must withstand this sinister treatment to stay i... 5113 views
Cheese and sausage were the tools of Jazzy Jamison's trade when she was set on making her submissive fart slave sniff up nasty farts while she sat on his face. This was not a simple or pleasant task for the guy, as her butt blasts were just insanely ... 6697 views
Royalty's fart slave is a guy who can handle a surplus of stink, straight from the source! This babe with a boisterous booty sat on his face and released a mix of warm, wet farts. Sure, they were filtered through her tight pants, but per his reaction... 5141 views
Royalty can be so quiet at times, but when she is in the mood to be menacing, she really lets her dedicated fart slave have it! She sat on the stud's face and launched gassers up into his nose. The dude had to breathe, so he had no choice but to snif... 5321 views
02:35
Sheila Marie’s oversized backside was back at it again! Her fart slave’s face was made to serve as a seat for her ample tush, and wow…she sure did gas the guy out! She is known far and wide for her foul farts, and this MILF is a gal who couldn... 5775 views
With her fart slave licking her pucker to make it relaxed, big-assed MILF Sheila Marie was able to pass some astounding farts from her sphincter. With her white booty perched over his face, she shot him good with her gassers, some of which were quite... 5203 views
Even in full-bottom panties, Sheila Marie’s tush packs quite a punch! Just ask her fart slave who had to endure these massive ass missiles as she sat on his face and directed her honks in his direction. There was no stopping her, and given her thic... 6712 views
When Sophia Grace has a taste for kink, she recruits her fart slave to assist her in engaging in something raunchy. During their most recent meeting, she perched her pooper above his face and hit his mug with her marvelously gross farts. He was told ... 7188 views
Amber Star wore a sexy yellow bikini when she took a seat on her fart boy’s face and fed him a nasty variety of nasty farts. These farts were of the most foul variety, but he remained stationed under her sizable tush and took every fart she had to ... 6924 views
Sexy ebony Qutie Quinn used her amazing ass to smother her fart slave and push her massive gassers into his mouth. The guy was subjected to the worst sort of stink, even though she was wearing tight leggings. She really did a number on the sap, but i... 6495 views
Sexy Gia Love was full of farts when she sat on her guy’s face and let those gassers fly out. Her skimpy white getup did very little to filter her filthy farts, so his face was swathed in a surplus of stink. If Gia’s ass was not so damn sexy, it ... 7373 views
Diamond’s fart slave says that her farts stink so good, and he does not mind her sitting atop his face when she needs to let some gassers fly out of the sexy fishnet panties she has outfitted herself in. Her big ass was especially boisterous during... 5332 views
The bubbly Latina booty on sexy diamond is full and fabulous, and her fart slave is quite fond of sniffing her backside while she blasts foul farts in his face. Their most recent kink session saw her taking a seat on his face so that he could sniff u... 8509 views
Petite, inked-up Asian hottie Kim Chi’s fart slave can taste her farts when she sits on his face and farts through her yellow panties. Once she has farted multiple times, she gives him what she calls, “dessert.” These are her most foul farts, a... 4579 views
Royalty sat on her stud’s face and fed his nose her foul farts. It would be great to say the guy was down for it, but his sputtering and gagging when they also entered his mouth at times told the true tale…this was a rough encounter for him! This... 5100 views
Amber Star’s fellow loves her farts, and when she places her huge, thong-covered ass on his face, he is made to sniff all of her gassers, even the ones that are so potent that they make him choke. The kinky guy loves the foulness of his lady’s fa... 4014 views
There is some massive rumbling going on, and Amber Star’s fart-fanatic boyfriend is all about tasting the nastiness escaping her chocolate tush! She fed him her farts, and the two of them delighted in a dirty ass worshipping session that saw the fe... 5566 views
Petite Kim Chi looks adorable in a skimpy pink ensemble, but that’s the only adorable aspect to this daunting facesitting session! Her fart slave stopped by, and all Miss Chi had to give him was a healthy dose of her foul farts. She saved up all of... 4564 views
Looking awesome in black lace bottoms, Kim Chi sat on her fart slave’s face and loved the sensations of him licking her farts and sniffing her tiny ass! He will do whatever she expects of him, even if it means he must consume filthy farts that make... 5480 views
Diamond donned sexy blue lace panties before subjecting her fart slave to her putrid poots. She mounted his face to make sure he was sniffing up as much of her stench as possible. The entire process proved to be rough for the guy, but this kinky MILF... 6067 views
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So, you’re interested in refinancing your mortgage. Maybe you want some extra capital to do that home project you’ve always dreamed of, interest rates are nearing record lows, or you want to start consolidating debt. Regardless of the motivation behind the refinance,...
How Does Refinancing a Mortgage Work
A home purchase is considered an investment, and a robust one at that. Savvy owners are constantly looking for new ways to reduce debt, save money, pay less in interest, and ultimately build equity. Refinancing is one way to leverage your investment and do just that....
What Does It Mean to Refinance Your Home
You can think of refinancing your mortgage as a debt redo. Essentially, you’ll swap out the existing loan for a new one - ideally with better terms and conditions. Only this time it could help you save money on high mortgage payments, rather than just borrow it....
Setting up the Utilities in My New House
All the tedious, time-consuming home closing documents have been signed, sealed, and delivered. Your belongings are packed into what seems like a million boxes and you have a solid plan to haul all your existing furniture to the new place. Just as your boxes and...
When Is My First Mortgage Payment Due?
Navigating your way through a brand new mortgage loan can be a difficult task, especially for first time homeowners. After handing over a large sum of money for the down payment and closing costs, it’s important to pay attention to the timing of your first mortgage...
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Tim Jones and Ryan Cranswick, owners of South Island Concrete, have over 50 combined years’ experience in the concrete industry.
Tim started South Island Concrete over 26 years ago and has operated for 17 of those in the Calgary market alone. Ryan and Tim share a similar history in their introduction to the concrete world, both starting at a young age and dedicating themselves solely to this industry has given them a combined vast knowledge of concrete. Fun side fact, they also share the same birthday! Both are extremely hardworking, honest, dependable and professional, they stand by their commitment to quality workmanship 100 percent. South Island Concrete knows how stressful it can be trying to find a contractor that you can trust. Together, with their hard working team they have poured literally thousands of driveways, garage pads, patios, and basements. No job is too big or too small. If you only need a broom sidewalk or small stamped patio all the way up to rip out and replace, they are happy to come talk to you and give you a free quote.
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Tim started doing concrete as a summer job in the late 70's and when he finished high school he just kept doing what he knew. Tim moved to Victoria in the early eighties, met his wife, and started SIC in the early nineties. As luck would have it, the economy went bad in the late nineties and he went from 8 employees to none. He was forced to move to Calgary to look for work which turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to him. Once he got there, he made one phone call, and has never looked back. He provides the company with years of concrete knowledge and experience, his strong suit is assisting clients with great customer service and finishing the job ensuring he leaves with a satisfied customer. Tim and his wife love Calgary! Their kids have houses, great jobs and now the grand kids are starting to appear. Life is good, thank you Calgary!!
Ryan Cranswick | Owner -
Ryan too started doing concrete as a summer job, then continued after graduating. He worked in the small town of 100 Mile House, BC for several years before deciding to venture out in 2009 to Calgary. Upon arriving he met Tim, there work ethic and personalities clicked right away and they’ve been helping customers together ever since. Having worked in both, a small town and a large city Ryan has had the opportunity to experience several different concrete scenarios. Every concrete job has many stages, measuring/reviewing plans, prepping/digging the work area, forming, pouring and finally sealing/finishing. Ryan can and has done it all, but his greatest strength is at stage one and forming. His attention to accuracy and craftsmanship really enables the end result to be completed properly. Ryan, his wife and their daughter love everything Calgary has to offer and are proud to call it home!
Sandy Jones | Director -
Sandy provided the impetus for Tim to start South Island Concrete and has been behind him for almost 30 years. She is the head bookkeeper, writes all the cheques, seals all the stamp jobs, expedites men, supplies equipment around the city, helps customers with color choices, and puts together the best lunches known to man! She is the glue that holds it all together and the company would not exist without her. She has also been told that she is the "best granny in the world".
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The broader term ‘walking tour’ can encompass different formats. There’s trekking, usually in exotic locations where all the requisite baggage, such as camping gear and food is carried by porters, so the trekker is free to enjoy the experience. There’s country walking, usually done in a country location, maybe involving walking from one inn to the next over several days or staying in one place and walking out from there. There are short walks, usually in a city, to experience a certain area or district, like the popular ‘ghost’ or ‘haunted’ tours. And then there’s hiking and backpacking which usually has a physical fitness aspect as well as a travel aspect. There are so many different tours to choose from, you can opt for one with as much or as little difficulty as you want.
The walking tour is still much more popular in Europe than the United States, but it’s a growing field with many tour operators to choose from. The Wayfarer’s started in 1984 as a small group of friends and family walking primarily in England. Today, they conduct tours to many other countries, as well as England where they offer a popular Downton Abbey tour. Classic Journeys, founded in 1995, offers destinations in Europe, Asia, Africa, and both North and South America. One of their specialties is the culinary tour, which includes cooking lessons as well as visits to markets, bakers and vineyards. Walking Adventures, International takes the traveler on an adventure that involves walking blended with motorcoach transportaion (as well as other forms) to get up close and personal with culture and history. They offer a wide variety of destinations including all 50 states. This is just a very small sampling of what’s out there.
Of course there’s always the self-guided tour. If you have a specific area you want to explore, you can use maps and guide books to put together your own itinerary. Most of the popular travel guides like Fodor’s and Frommer’s include walking tours in their guides. The Travel Neighborhood has a great selection books from lots of different areas. See below for just a few.
A walking tour brings you into such intimate contact with your surroundings, there’s no better way to really get to know a place than to explore it one step at a time. It’s been many years since my sister and I went on a nighttime walking tour of haunted places in Waterford, Ireland. But I still remember the smell of cold cement, the eeriness of the shadows and the hushed voices and nervous laughter of our companions.
I work in Circulation as a senior library associate. I love mysteries, traveling, gardens and libraries. My favorite authors are Agatha Christie, Elizabeth Peters, Patricia Cornwell and Harlan Coben, but I enjoy any well-plotted mystery.
Posted in Travel and tagged Europe, Walking.
One thought on “Wandering About Walking Tours?”
Adam says:
March 27, 2015 at 5:32 am
Secret food tours will take you on the best hidden gems in Paris. Join our food tour if you want to taste the best French food in Paris.
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John Redwood's Diary Incisive and topical campaigns and commentary on today's issues and tomorrow's problems
Local Issues
Changing EU rules
September 21, 2022 143 Comments
One of the most bizarre features of the few Remain supporters who come daily to this site to rubbish anything good the U.K. does or could do with its freedoms is their refusal to analyse the impact of past EU laws and policies. They neither want us to change any of them, nor admit this big panoply of law has been guiding and controlling us in so many ways.As during the referendum itself the pro EU side always played down the ambitious scope of economic, social and political union and the extent of EU power already achieved in its pursuit.
This week they have been in denial that the energy system we have followed came from the EU and was based around the twin objectives of cutting our domestic supply of coal,oil and gas to help net zero policies whilst making us more dependent on imports by encouraging many more interconnectors, pipes and cables. They ignore the recent speech of Mrs Von Der Leyden, EU Commission President, widely condemning the current EU legal and regulatory framework for energy and calling for urgent and radical change. I agree with her and want the U.K. to get on with its own national changes to the common EU regime we currently follow. We can serve our own interests and help the EU by working to restore national self sufficiency.
In all the debates I undertook over staying or leaving the EU I never once was able to debate the EU vision of Union unless it was with someone from the continent. The refusal to admit the truth about ever closer Union took away the argument that European countries would best be governed together. That may well make sense for Belgium, Netherlands and Austria, and for France and Germany, given their histories.If their voters want it I wish them well with it. It never seemed likely or attractive to many U.K. people given our past which is I guess why the Remain contributors here still try to pretend the EU was just some glorified trade arrangement for independent states!
September 21, 2022 143 Comments
September 21, 2022
“just some glorified trade arrangement for independent states!”
That was Ted Heath’s line, back in the day. Were we sold a pup!
September 21, 2022
Ted Heath himself know this to be a lie at the time he joined. He did this without even asking the public for a referendum. What an appalling man he was but the Tories had so many dire PMs Major, Cameron, May, Boris, Truss(?) we shall soon see.
September 21, 2022
Is she even going to sell of Channel 4?
September 21, 2022
That was just a line, like the review of HS2 before the last election….we just don’t believe them
September 21, 2022
Why would anyone believe them they have lied and lied and lied all my life. But the only real alternative Labour/SNP is clearly even worse!
September 21, 2022
The only way to get true change to leave the EU is get rid of those people (a total clear out) who wanted remain.
Your party has overwhelmingly failed in this regard and put a remainer back as PM.
Did your party learn nothing from national economic disaster Major who cause economic meltdown in loss of jobs, homes and businesses to the nation to join EU currency, Coward Cameron who ran away rather than leave the EU or Traitor May who has put in place every obstacle possible to prevent truly leaving the EU and implemented close alignment and N.Ireland protocol to get back in?
September 21, 2022
Christopher Booker’s book, “The Great Deception’ explains, and backs up, how the EU was always going to be the United States of Europe. From its conception in the the 1940’s. But it was sold as a trading bloc because it was known that the concept would not be liked. The FCO 30/1048 (a secret document) clearly states that the British in particular would not accept US of Europe and were lied to for 30 years.
The evidence is there if you look for it.
September 21, 2022
Ian B
September 21, 2022
@Sharon A Trading Block with embasies and ambassadors? A Trading Block that this week is in full attendance at the UNited Nations. Then again is so are its Individual States. The US has only one delegation
September 21, 2022
It’s in the first line of the Treaty of Rome 1957. We were lied to by fanatics and one J Major took us into the EU without permission of even parliament as he rail-roaded the Maastricht Treaty through on a 3 line whip.
September 21, 2022
+ many – it shows the outright deceit and dishonesty of many of our politicians. Such dishonest people shouldn’t even be serving in Parliament. When will they acknowledge the country belongs to us, not privileged politicians!
September 21, 2022
+1 and now we are clearly being lied too on the levels and costs of open door immigration, net zero, the manifesto tax promises, the vaccine safety and effectiveness, the pointless & damaging lock down, the efficacy of masks, the NI settlement, the point of HS2, over EV cars, bikes, walking saving CO2 (they clearly do not really), the dire NHS, the causes of the current absurd energy costs (the net zero religion), the causes of inflation (manifesto ratter Sunak)…
September 21, 2022
Defrauded in fact and without even a referendum. Heath was well aware of this as were many/most MPs at the time.
September 21, 2022
In an interview with the BBC (obviously recorded late in his life) and broadcast about seven years ago, Edward Heath complacently and with quite a smile on his face agreed that he had lied to the UK about the real implications and intentions of joining the Common Market.
We were sold a whole litter of pups!
September 21, 2022
I often wonder how he, never having had a bigger job than PM was able to afford to take part in the world’s second most expensive sport of ocean yacht racing.
September 21, 2022
We have been lied too for the past 40 years.
Now we are in a mess with power supplies entirely due to the actions of parliament. It’s no good blaming Brussels for our situation when MPs had numerous photo ops dynamiting perfectly good coal fired plants.
The only thing we are world leaders in is self destruction and that follows nicely with WEF guidance.
Own it.
Ian B
September 21, 2022
September 21, 2022
“The EU is diluting sanctions against Russian coal.The EU’s description of coal as an essential good,much like food and fertilizer,is a win for Russia’s efforts to erode the sanctions regime and is getting fierce pushback in Poland and the Baltic States.”
It would take a heart of stone not to laugh!
Around 10 days ago I also noticed Belarus announced that it was going to route it’s fertilizer exports(it is a major producer/exporter,particularly of potash) via Murmansk instead of via the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda.This will deprive both the port and Lithuanian railways of a very significant source of their revenue.
September 21, 2022
The UK cannot change European Union rules.
Only the member countries can do that.
I’d have thought that Sir John wouldn’t make so elementary a mistake?
Reply We can change any Eu rule we like applying to the Uk
September 21, 2022
Good morning.
But it was parliament and our MP’s that tried to reverse the referendum of 2016 and, did all they can to deliver BINO and leave us with the pigs breakfast we have now. All designed I argue to keep us closely aligned with the EU. And whilst this current attitude persists we will never be allowed to diverge from the EU and form policies that better suit us.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62967084
The political class and the Establishment need to let go. There is no need for an organisation of this sort as there are already sufficient structures (Embassies) in place. So why is this being created ? Like the ECSC, then EEC it is, I suspect, a political structure created as cover for something else – EU Lite ! The fact that so many notable Europhiles are so enamored by this, and the fact that the French President is keen to get this going tells me all I want to know – ie I want nothing to do with it.
As we here stated a long time ago. The future is in the Far East !
September 21, 2022
It looks like yet another attempt to create a ring of nations outside the EU, but which would be very closely associated ….. and therefore influenced (ie controlled) by it.
We should have nothing to do with it. But the anti-British Establishment will be desperate to get on board and I doubt if Truss has the nous or inclination to decline the invitation.
September 21, 2022
I have to laugh – you cannot join the inner sanctum, or you refuse to, however you are encouraged to join via colonization.
September 21, 2022
I hope that Truss seizes the moment to restore the Commonwealth as a mutual help society. There are huge advantages to doing so, not least countering increasing Chinese hegemony as well as providing alternatives to the EU and US for creating allied groups.
September 21, 2022
Much truth in this. We are still following an generally bonkers EU type of big state & over regulation agenda.
September 21, 2022
Mark, perhaps France should let go instead of trying to be the boss of the EU. Leave the Heads of the EU, their EU presidents elected to represent their Country in the Union to meet with those Heads of Countries outside of the EU; otherwise, it is them that are doubling up on administration, cost and meetings. When we meet with the USA, we don’t meet with all the Leaders, their most significant member States.
September 21, 2022
We’re about to join the European Politiical Community, we’re still in the European Council ECHRs, and most of the EU institutions, NI is still in the EU, we have a ‘level playing field’ clause in the EU/UK Trade & Coop Agreement, the French still fish in our waters, we follow the EU transport & energy plan…and we still adopt free movement by any other means
NO we haven’t left and parliament and the main political parties haven’t honoured the terms of the referendum nor the wishes of the majority of the people
Ian B
September 21, 2022
@Mark B. If the report in the media is to believed, the worry particularily with everything else that needs urgent attention is why it is even being considered. Is this more ego in motion instead of duty to the electorate, the people that pay the wages.
A bit more focus by those in the employ of the taxpayer and not wondering off into ‘La La Land’ would make this country incredibly wealthy.
September 21, 2022
Why is it being created? Same as why the EU has grown so much – big jobs for failed politicians who could not get a job cleaning the streets outside of their bubble.
September 21, 2022
“The future is in the Far East”
Indeed it is.That’s why Russia has turned it’s back on Europe in a move that is probably as permanent as permanent can ever be.A Japanese CEO attending the Vladivostok Far Eastern Economic Forum two weeks ago was asked why he was there,he said:”I’m a business man,not a politician;Russia is our nearest neighbour and there is business to be done…Vladivostok is the capital of East Asia.”
I see Rosatom is musing about building a fixed nuclear power plant in the far east province and the second of a planned five floating NPPs is under construction which will power up the East Siberian coastal infrastructure and the new mining developments in the hinterland (output earmarked for Asia) that are planned.
My Japanese correspondent reports that :”Japan could face electricity shortages this winter if a cold snap hits in December.The problem is made worse by Japan’s ageing fleet of thermal power plants.Around 30% of Japan’s thermal plants are already more than 40 years old.”
(Japanese imports of Russian LNG in August +211%,Chinese imports of Russian LNG in August +270%.)
September 21, 2022
It occurs to me that Remain supporters are akin to shell-shocked soldiers wandering aimlessly and unaware in no-man’s land and one would have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.
Meanwhile, as a direct result of Brexit, we are denied the opportunity of being bullied and threatened by the European Commission through denial of entitlement to funds in the way Hungary now is with Poland about to join in. Remoaners must be in tears at that.
September 21, 2022
@formula57: We are STILL being “bullied and threatened” by the EU, especially over Northern Ireland. I see that Sir John has published a Tweet about this saying: “The President of the USA needs to understand that the NI Protocol is undermining the Good Friday Agreement that he and the U.K. support. He should help us restore GB to NI trade and respect the UK’s internal market.”. NO and NO!!
Firstly, it was the IRA who called the Belfast Agreement the “Good Friday Agreement” in order to give it some spurious religious significance. It is the BELFAST AGREEMENT and that’s what it should be called. And secondly, the Britain-hating Biden should be told to BUTT OUT as Northern Ireland is as British as Alaska is American – we don’t interfere with how they riun Alaska and they must SHUT UP about how we run Northern Ireland.
Biden would probably counter that the US is one of the guarantors of the Belfast Agreement, but our response should be “that was then, this is now – thank you for your help at the time but that time has passed and your involvement is no longer required or welcome”. Nothing lasts for ever, and the need or desire for US involvement no longer exists. So now MIND YOUR OWN BUSINESS. Alternatively, move all your military bases to Ireland, as they are no longer welcome here. Oh no, you can’t can you, as Ireland won’t have them!
September 21, 2022
The United States of America succeeds as a single nation because the people of each state had little history and were willing to combine into a single nation.
The European Union will ultimately fail as the populations of many countries identify more with their country than a European super-state. As the Eurocrates push towards greater union the people will realise they prefer their national freedoms and centuries of historical self-rule.
September 21, 2022
Lizz Truss on energy says she wants to give businesses time to adjust. How will they do this then Liz? How do you expect them to compete with countries with energy costs at 1/4 of ours, far less red tape, far lower taxes and lower labour costs please do tell us Liz? It is the bonkers net zero policy that need to go dear.
Or perhaps by “adjustment” does she just mean close down?
September 21, 2022
Now we have Sulfuric acid shortages too – the resource crisis that could stifle green tech & threaten food security
Professor Mark Maslin (UCL Geography) and Dr Simon Day (UCL Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction) highlight how sulfur, a fossil fuel waste product, is an important industrial chemical and that the shift to renewable energy could affect its supply. This on top of energy shortages, food grade CO2 shortages…
September 21, 2022
September 21, 2022
S is the fifth most abundant element on Earth, widely available from sulfide (eg, pyrite), and sulfate minerals (eg, gypsum). Obviously it is easier to get it from gas or oil, but saying that we now are short of S is OTT.
What about your chemistry A-level, LL?
BOF
September 21, 2022
LL. Sulfur is also part of the recipe for gunpowder. How will.modern youth learn to make it as we did?
September 21, 2022
Thanks LL for drawing attention to Prof Mark Maslin. There is a 56 mn (40 mn +questions from the audience) presentation from him as part of ‘Talks at Google’ on networthpost.org called ‘Climate Change’ where he also addresses Population and Development.
September 21, 2022
I posted a link all about that last night well worth the read.
September 21, 2022
That is one of the purposes of mass immigration, to create a populace that largely DOESN’T identify with their country or its history.
September 21, 2022
Pete, the USA seems more divided, though with its different racial strands Native Americans, Latino Americans, Irish Americans, Italian Americans and African Americans. The States may have a short history, it’s different strands bought their old cultures and seem to cling on to an history that a lot of them have never personally experienced; you never seem to hear of British Americans though! All of America’s Founding Fathers would have, at some point, considered themselves British. And the top five surnames in the 2010 US census were Smith, Johnson, Williams, Brown and Jones.
I was watching Zuby on Dewsberry’s show last night, he is obviously a very intelligent, thoughtful man, when I looked him up, I wasn’t at all surprised with his impressive 1st from Oxford in computer science. It is men like this that need to be policy advisors not just kids straight out of uni.
September 21, 2022
September 21, 2022
+1
Well, while we are looking over here we won’t be looking over there?
Swedish election
Italian election
Inflation….and many more of which I have no clue.
There are great political advantages in making us “watch the wall”.
September 21, 2022
Agree – None of those topics on the BBC, neither is Leicester
September 21, 2022
Heartiest laugh of last week was supplied by President Lukashenko of Belarus who posted a short videoclip of himself chopping logs into firewood.Followed up with the caption:
“We will not let Europe freeze this winter.”
September 21, 2022
There is a meeting of the “European Political Community”in Prague in October.
This is Macron’s baby. A “ new space” for co-operation!
September 21, 2022
and what, pray, is the Agenda and who are key speakers?
September 21, 2022
The EU, the Council for Europe and the European Political Community
By the end of this month the UK will be members of two of these organisations and has a special trade & cooperation agreement with the third
Are we more or less sovereign following the referendum
September 21, 2022
That would not be line dem remainer Truss would it?
September 21, 2022
Cameron let the cat out of the bag when he said he wanted to be ‘the heir to Blair’. In other words pursue centrist policies which enormously benefit the leader following them. Johnson was a huge fan of COP26 measures and other globalist climate ideas.
The EU were along for the ride but they were only part of the picture. Chancers and careerists look beyond the EU for benefactors.
September 21, 2022
Indeed but nearly all of the UK’s MPs, government, the BBC propaganda outfit and the state sector went along with it all. Even now very little had been done to change direction. May, Boris and Truss still stick to the total and evil insanity of net zero. We still suffer the insanities of the Climate Change Committee. They still push EV cars when they cause produce far more CO2 (in the manufacture and charging) than keeping your old ICU car running and CO2 is not a problem anyway.
What on earth are PayPal doing in trying to shut down Toby Young’s Free Speech union and the thedailysceptic site? Surely this is an appalling misuse of their power. The use of banking systems, the large social media companies and major search engines to try to censor and kill free speech in the way is appalling. Not even giving any reasons or justifications.
September 21, 2022
Paypal? – what on earth have they got to do with anything except creaming off profit from money transactions?
September 21, 2022
LL,
‘Even now very little had been done to change direction.’
Precisely. Nobody champions the nation state. We have had years to take action but nothing happens. Sensible ideas are kicked into the long grass and blame shifted onto various organisations and individuals.
Remain are not actually in government (although various people did vote Remain at the time but say they have changed their mind).
Nobody will grasp the nettle. If we had someone like Viktor Orban in charge things would be very different.
Anyway, the blame game won’t wash any more – Remain, The Treasury, the BBC are not in office. A reckoning is fast approaching.
September 21, 2022
Never mind having a VO
We have a SJR and for the life of me cannot see why enough in the house couldn’t see he was and is the man for the crisis.
September 21, 2022
LL,
‘Even now very little had been done to change direction.’
Precisely. We left years ago, but any sensible ideas are kicked into the long grass or excuses are found for not pursuing them.
Remain did not form a government (though various PMs and ministers did vote Remain but claimed that had put it behind them).
We are not acting like an independent nation state. Nobody grasped the nettle and acted in the country’s interest. If someone like Viktor Orban was on charge we would have the issues sorted by now.
Nobody believes the blame game anymore. Neither Remain, the BBC, not the Treasury are in charge of running the country. A reckoning is fast approaching.
September 21, 2022
Persistent Remainers remind me of the Jacobites, forever pining for the King over the water despite the fact that (a) he wouldn’t be coming back again; (b) the vast majority rejected him and would not accept restoration and (c) he represented a largely unsuccessful dynasty which, at its worst point, caused a civil war.
The Jacobites refused to see the reality, preferring instead their romantic idea. Remainers are the same. The tragedy is that so many are in the anti-British Establishment and have used their completely undeserved and largely unaccountable power to try and thwart the Will of the people.
Ian B
September 21, 2022
September 21, 2022
Galling.
September 21, 2022
A good analogy
September 21, 2022
Hear hear
September 21, 2022
“Changing EU rules“
NO not Changing EU rules but scrap EU rules completely, then make rules that are suited to the U.K. it’s not rocket science
Ian B
September 21, 2022
My often repeated mantra, Laws, Rules and Regulations in a Democracy are created, ammended and repealed by the People throgh their elected representatives. That is simply what a Democray is and is for. In that correlation EU dictates are not valid if we are that a ‘Democracy’ So all we need to do is ignore them.
September 21, 2022
Agree – stop the EU rules….and stop sending billions every month to the EU
September 21, 2022
“Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose but which will irreversibly lead to federation”
……The words of Jean Monnet, founding father of the EU project, over half a century ago……
September 21, 2022
I always judge people on their overall opinions, not the occasional barmy one. I have noticed that certain EU sycophants NEVER EVER criticise the EU. EVER. If I find they cannot criticise the EU then their opinions are worthless. It isn’t natural, or healthy, whereas Brexiters are ready to put the blame wherever they think it lies, be it the UK government, the EU, International organisations, or wherever. That is the more honest approach and the reason why Brexit will succeed (so long as our politicians engage their brains and start working for the UK). If you can’t recognise the problem you will never find a solution.
believe me
September 21, 2022
Shirley M.. so why has there always got to be blame.. why not instead look for the good and give praise. The EU like the UK has so many good qualities about them that people who see the glass half full overlook the bad sides. Am only saying if you look out the same window all of the time you’re only going to see the same things.
September 21, 2022
So we should ignore the damage being done to the UK by our anti-democratic idiotic politicians and praise them for destroying our economy, our way of life, and everything else? As I said earlier, if you don’t identify the problem there can be no solution. If you don’t see a problem with the way the country is being run, then I have a bridge to sell you.
September 21, 2022
+1
September 21, 2022
Really? I read plenty of opinions from Brexiteers blaming the EU for decisions that were actually taken in Westminster.
For example, to relate to a current topic, VAT on domestic fuel was introduced as the result of a decision taken in Westminster by a Conservative government in the early 1990s (and at a higher rate than the current 5%), it was not imposed on the UK by the EU.
It was also the decision of a Conservative government in the early 1990s not to veto (a power they had and chose not to use) the situation whereby once VAT was imposed on a product or service, that it had to be retained.
The Conservative UK government had complete control over those decisions at the time. Nothing was imposed on them by any other organisation or entity.
September 21, 2022
Other than the requirements of the Climate Change Act and the pressure of the EU to develop green policies on member states.
September 22, 2022
VAT on domestic fuel was introduced in March 1993 (despite a pledge in the 1992 Conservative manifesto not to expand the scope of VAT). The Climate Change Act came into law 2008.
The introduction of VAT on domestic fuel can in no way be blamed on an act of Parliament which came in to existence 15 years after the decision was taken.
September 21, 2022
Earth to Redwood, Earth to Redwood, the UK left the EU almost three years ago, there is no such thing as “Remain” any more. If Brexit is going badly, and it is, it’s all down to the UK, nothing to do with the EU
September 21, 2022
PM Boris Johnson signs the Withdrawal Agreement: 24 January 2020 gov.uk
A transition period until the end of 2020 while the UK and EU negotiate additional arrangements. The current rules on trade, travel and business for the UK and EU continue to apply during the transition period. New rules take effect on 1 January 2021.
Then there was the divorce payment which was pretty much the old membership fee, which is reducing severely at the end of this year.
September 21, 2022
‘nothing to do with the EU’ – thanks for that I had a good laugh worthy of Martin in Cardiff.
September 21, 2022
That is true, the remain side never argued for the EU the way for example president macron would, they were in denial of the federal political union objective of the EU which is fundamental. Set against that, there was a good argument that the U.K. pre-Brexit had a pretty good fudge, with a number of important opt-outs, not in the euro and therefore not liable to be sucked fully into political and economic union. It will be interesting to see whether the few remaining non-euro states are now on the hook for bailouts and transfers.
It is certainly the case that Brexit has been disruptive both for individuals and for businesses. It has also resulted in a deterioration of relations with important allied countries like France. To make it worthwhile we will need to see bold and radical steps by the govt to take advantage of it. Otherwise the juice will not have been worth the squeeze.
September 21, 2022
We only left in January 2021 after a year of covid disruption. The divorce payment reduces significantly from September 2022. The VAT we get back from rest of world imports that we used to pay 80% to the EU should be used to transform UK worldwide exports, we need to train more sales people!
Sir Ollie Robbins should NOT have received a knighthood and been rewarded for his catastrophic failure and humiliation of the UK. There are others like Benn still put on EU committees now by this government; why John, why?
MFD
September 21, 2022
So sorry Richard1, but France is not a truely Allied to Great Britain. I am now in my late seventies and I have witnessed their constant hatred. Smile to your face as they need our tourists but stab us in the back when they can.
They have more time for the country we saved them from during the war.
September 21, 2022
France’s strategy is one to avoid being beaten by Germany yet again. Close alignment with them and others was hoped to secure a better future. Attitude towards England, (ok then UK) is one of hating the nation who demonstrated inadequacy – how many times?
September 21, 2022
Re your last paragraph, Sir John. It was Ted Heath who took us into what he pretended was a Common Market. He and European politicians were not open and honest with their own electorates, not disclosing the grand plan of ever closer union and subservience to a European superstate.
September 21, 2022
I have wondered whether this is a reason why fracking isn’t happening in the UK. If the UK had a low cost supply of natural gas, used for the benefit of the UK population, that would mean an advantage to it being outside the EU.
As we know, our relationship with the EU has to be about a “level playing field”, and no advantage to it leaving the EU must be seen. How else could the population be persuaded to rejoin?
In reality, a little more gas by means of fracking will just be sold on world markets to the highest bidder, and the benefit to British citizens will just be marginal.
September 21, 2022
Even if all the gas was sold overseas the country would benefit from the earnings, or perhaps you don’t think there’s any need for that.
September 21, 2022
“In reality, a little more gas by means of fracking will just be sold on world markets to the highest bidder, and the benefit to British citizens will just be marginal.”
Is this true? I read that in the US, the cost of gas is around a tenth of the world price due in no small part to the advent of fracking. Why can this not apply in the Uk? And if we have excess gas we can supply to the EU to help confound the Russian aggression
September 21, 2022
UK shale gas direct to International markets – Its all down to government policy
September 21, 2022
If US gas production falls to the point where it is no longer sufficient to meet domestic demand and fill the export route by pipeline and as LNG then there will be scope for arbitrage between the markets. LNG plants will bid for gas so long as export is profitable, which will force up domestic prices rapidly. Only when domestic prices are at a premium to the cost of ship borne LNG from nearby sources such as Trinidad and Peru will some capacity be switched to imports. The resulting shock to the US economy would be severe. Biden’s policies to limit new drilling could take them there quite rapidly. They were there before in 2003-5, when fracking had yet to take off. They were fortunate that global supply was more forgiving, but their gas market prices were the highest of the major global hubs.
Of course the loss of US exports would be catastrophic not only to the US but also its current customers for LNG. We really do need to encourage our friends to produce more gas.
September 21, 2022
In reality gas produced in the UK will stay in the UK so long as we don’t produce a surplus. We have limited export capacity dating from when we did have a small surplus, and unless we achieved a real bonanza of supply, we are not going to add to it.
As to the idea that our gas is at some mythical world price, consider what happened to gas prices for delivery in July this year in the UK and the other end of the interconnector to the Netherlands. The Dutch TTF prices ended up almost twice the UK NBP ones. See this chart
Gas markets are local, not global.
September 21, 2022
The EU sits complacently dependent on Chinese manufacture, Russian oil and American military force. It is powerless. It is subject to blackmail by the Russians, military weakness from everyone and hopelessly inefficient government. And it is poor too. Soon, I think, it will be dismembered as Poland was in the 18th century. This Twentieth Century Socialist model is not fit for the twenty first century.
September 21, 2022
and they were very cross to lose our money, all the while we were a silent, ignored funder.
September 21, 2022
The Polish Liberum Veto certainly has contemporary echoes!
September 21, 2022
Energy rationing is coming whatever happens now. High inflation too. Price caps cannot remove gas shortages.
Remainers have done all the damage they wanted to and I’m afraid to say that the most powerful of them were Tories. They have wrecked the country.
My guess is that the British people will be given their chance to rejoin the EU after much suffering… and probably will.
Ian B
September 21, 2022
UK Energy shortages are due to the UK Government leaving our gas in the ground and preferring to import as it saves on World CO2(or so Boris said). You missed what Sir John said it has nothing to do with EU membership.
September 21, 2022
But in reality each successive UK Government allowed further control over our former independence. There was no real study or communication to the people about how entrenched we were getting signing up to. That is why the feeling gradually boiled up after realisation that absorption was taking over and soon it would be pointless having a government here at all.
September 21, 2022
Fully agree – its time we tear up all our treaties and agreements and start again
September 21, 2022
The risk assessment of relying on a completely mad dictator for gas, oil etc was completely missed by UK, EU.. only Trump got it; and the Germans laughed at him. They are not laughing now, nor is anyone at Putin’s repeated threats to use nuclear weapons over Ukraine.
Renewables aren’t ready yet and nuclear another 10-15 years away for base load, even if we start now.
Frack baby frack, drill, mine in N Sea at PACE, whilst relying on expensive friendly LNG.
Or if it is the End of Days, does any of it matter however governments screw up.
September 21, 2022
I’ll bet you that Lizz doesn’t frack…the tories just haven’t got the bottle any more to put the people first
September 21, 2022
“Even Mrs Thatcher ducked radical NHS reform. Liz Truss must be braver
For decades the health service’s funding model has been untouchable, but soon it will be untenable”
Philip Johnston in the Telegraph today.
She certainly did and she ducked many other things & made many other errors – The daft as a brush John Major as Chancellor being the main one but also destroying many good schools and failing to cut the state back sufficiently. A dire, grossly unfair competition, state monopoly NHS is idiotic and fails millions and kills hundred of thousands.
September 21, 2022
Lifelogic, they could simply increase funding for the NHS by putting charging mechanisms in doctors’ surgeries and hospitals to bill the EHIC/GHIC cards, the travel insurance for foreign visitors (just look how Spain does it, I know a young lady who went out to Spain with neither EHIC nor travel insurance they wouldn’t treat her until her Dad made a payment on his credit card!), and the foreign aid budget for those we treat with none of the above so reducing the amount of aid we have to provide to meet our international obligations elsewhere.
The UK Global Health Insurance Card ( GHIC ) lets you get state healthcare in Europe at a reduced cost or sometimes for free and European citizens to get reciprocal care from the UK, except we don’t seem to bill back. Our doctors and nurses seem reluctant to do this, yet want more money in pay and conditions for themselves from the remaining UK taxpayers.
September 21, 2022
I’d be happy if they started by making hospital Consultant Doctors and GP Doctors ‘employees’ of the NHS and not self-employed or companies
September 21, 2022
That is exactly the problem that has reduced GP surgeries to being run by a triage fire-breathing dragon, in protection of Doctors from actually seeing anybody while partners enjoy £120k+. The nurse practioners do the work and face the disgruntled patients, who by being on the Doctor’s panel/roll whatever it is are funding the GP’s lifestyle. Surgeries seem to survive, but at a low service level, by finding Registrars who move on pretty quickly until they find a place where they might perform and be able to satisfy their conscience.
BOF
September 21, 2022
With the NHS, we could take a leaf from the Australian model. If doctors don’t see their patients, they do not get paid!
September 21, 2022
“One of the most bizarre features of the few Remain supporters who come daily to this site to rubbish anything good the U.K. does or could do with its freedoms is their refusal to analyse the impact of past EU laws and policies.”
An even more bizarre feature of Remain supporters is their willingness to accept directives, laws and policies made by people we do not elect and cannot remove. EU membership is truly a leap into the unknown.
Ian B
September 21, 2022
September 21, 2022
I suppose there is money in it?
Shilling I mean.
September 21, 2022
You seem to have forgotten that the EU internal Energy Market was based on the privatisation model of the UK and Sweden! Particularly, the breakup of the vertically integrated system into separate generation, transmission and distribution sectors. Unlike the UK, Sweden and the rest of the EU governments kept a grip on there strategic energy infrastructure by maintaining ownership of the dominant parts of it; particularly France. Knowing the best way to regulate such important assets is from the inside, with all the others that are trying to rig the market into an oligopoly.
Reply Is that why half of French nuclear generating stations have been shut and they have been importing from the U.K. this summer?
September 21, 2022
reply to reply ….interconnects are not wanted ‘to balance peaks and troughs ‘ but purely to disguise abject failure in much of the EU, and increasingly so UK. EU foolish enough to rely on the main industrialised country as long as Russia agrees to provide energy, and UK stupid enough to dismiss nuclear power for 30 years, while getting upset about running out of coal and letting the Arabs buy profitable parts of UK in exchange for oil.
September 21, 2022
So why did I read a couple of days ago that Governments across Europe that grid operators may be forced to shut down power this winter to avoid a total system collapse?
According to Bloomberg, Europe is having to prepare for the energy squeeze worsens each week. “On Wednesday, France’s Reseau de Transport d’Electricite said it will probably have to cut consumption several times in the winter to avoid rolling blackouts, and Finland has ramped up warning about outages. Also on Wednesday, the European Commission proposed a regulation calling on governments to cut overall electricity usage by 10%, as well as a 5% mandatory reduction during peak hours.”
September 21, 2022
Breaking things up which should not be broken up, for example separating the ownership of the trains from that of the track in our railways, was done at the command of the EU, as part of its anti monopoly rules. Even Cal Mac’s ferries in the Western Isles were attacked by the EU.
September 21, 2022
You will see that the UK has remained a net importer from France; just! The bit that is a worry, is the size of the import from France in Quarters 1 & 2 in 2021. Will those GWh still be available in Quarters 1 & 2 in 2023 and at what price? Notice the import into England from Scotland (where the wind does blow). Meanwhile Brussels is saying the two months of EU gas storage it now has is for use by the EU member states solidarity agreement.
September 21, 2022
The internal energy market was designed in much the same way as the Soviet bloc used to create interdependence and centralised control. See ENTSO-E and ENTSO-G.
September 21, 2022
Whilst it is true that CAGW/Net Zero was an EU aim, there is no doubt that the Remainer/communists in the UK used EU directives to the maximum to destroy our energy security and independence by cancelling/restricting nuclear, restricting North Sea drilling permits, banning fracking and blowing up power stations.
Even the EU have declared nuclear and gas as “green”.
And today they are still pursuing CAGW/Net Zero wind turbines, which as I write are providing 2.62 GW out of an installed capacity of 27 GW (better than yesterday which went below 1 GW), despite having no plan at all for grid stability and long-term storage when the wind doesn’t blow, let alone how to produce the “excess” electrical energy required.
There is no plan for nuclear other than an aim for 8 reactors to be built between 2043 and 2050, 8 years after the 2035 electricity decarbonisation date.
This is national recklessness.
Has the Government asked its favourite university, Imperial College London, to model the excess deaths in winter caused by expensive, intermittent and unpredictable blackouts of electricity and gas?
September 21, 2022
On a different note, having seen the budget ‘leaks’ this morning, I can only think that not one of these announcements is going to help most of the middle or lower income sectors who are the worst hit. Stamp duty doesn’t help when fuel prices mean people won’t move houses and inflation means the smart don’t run up more debts. Corporation tax will help business owners, but at best helps employees keep their heads above water. NI savings are limited aid. Scrapping city bonuses? The people who are being hit don’t receive them in the first place!
Transfer of tax allowances within families (a potential £1200 pound pay rise for the lowest paid), dropping VAT from fuel (saves homeowners money, or if the companies keep that 20% it reduces the need for loans), improved infrastructure to create jobs and reinvestment, dropping or revising IR35 (better flow and supply of labour), ensuring the government procurement process includes the value of the multiplier effect provided by UK firms when purchasing (reinvestment in UK firms keeps people employed)…. the list of possible changes goes on and on, but I suspect we will see none of it.
Ian B
September 21, 2022
Good morning Sir John
To me it goes to the point of Democracy, do we have Government for the people by the People – Democracy. Or an unelected unaccountable Commission as a de-facto ruler.
Is it Government via the People that makes things ‘illegal’ when needed or is it bureaucrats that start from the position everything is ‘illegal’ unless they themselves or their own deem it ‘legal’. One needs ‘human rights’ to make things seem warm cuddly, while a Democracy doesn’t – it just gets on with life.
That is also where the Blair/Brown cabal let democracy down – devolution didn’t push democracy and government down to were it works County/Shire level. It just created multi tiered power bases that do nothing.
In a way that brings us back to what is the EU? On the World stage it acts as if it is a Country. It has embassies, gets to go to the UN and G7 meetings. In the mean time some of its individual States/Countries also play on the World stage as if they are independent entities, many bites out oft the same cherry. Someone is taking the ‘michael’ out of World structures.
September 21, 2022
They neither want us to change any of them, nor admit this big panoply of law has been guiding and controlling us in so many ways
You won’t find a more committed Brexiteer than me. But I didn’t vote Leave because of ‘the big panoply of law’, I voted Leave because the EU is intrinsically undemocratic no because Freedom of Movement is (to some extent) desirable but is inherently impractical.
So, as devil’s advocate – and a point Remainers often make – can you provide examples of this ‘panoply of law’ that has been to our detriment. Personally, I like clean beaches – to name but one area of good EU regulation.
September 21, 2022
What is not often told about this ‘panoply’ of EU law, is that it was all passed via Statutory Instruments and NOT via Parliament. This was deliberate so that no scrutiny could be made of what we were signing up to. The bigger sin is though, we could, if we so wanted to, change this and amend or at least slow down its advance.
Sweden signed up to adopt the EURO. To this day they still use the Swedish Krona. All against EU rules and Treaty Agreements.
September 22, 2022
Beaches are harder to keep clean since open borders. Adding millions to the population has greatly increased the load on the sewers, which Bazalgette did not engineer for the rest of the world. No amount of regulation – and we have the Regulator and the Environment Agency – can stop all that extra volume of dirty water and sewage going into the main drains and overflowing. Either back up into people’s houses, or, as the companies prefer, out into the rivers and seas. Don’t forget the extra runoff from rain into the main drains which used to fall on grass and soak away, but now falls on concrete and tarmac with nowhere but the drains to go.
An additional factor now is the difficulty in getting hold of the chemicals to treat the sewage. In this new situation, water companies are allowed to get written agreement from the EA to discharge untreated. The reason for the difficulty is disruption in supply chains since the response to the pandemic. Nothing to do with Brexit, though the remainiacs are pretending it is.
Another factor you should consider is that before 2016 we only had about 900 monitors to alert us to the discharge of sewage. Now we have thousands. So before 2016, only people like me who went in the sea in all weathers and seasons knew about the problem; now, all those newly fashionable “wild swimmers” with smartphones are informed. Again, nothing to do with Brexit. And nothing to do with climate change.
September 21, 2022
How can this be I ask myself – we have ‘taken back control’ but now I read here that we havn’t – not yet anyway – so much to be done and the politicians ie.the Tories with 80 majority in the House are struggling to come to terms with the new situation. Truss is going to have a go with her Maggie Thatcher style approach but it’s not going to work ’cause she is out of step with what else is going on around – it’s just a different time and copying game changers of the past will be a waste of time – she should at least try to be her own person. The new hardliners approach might have got her somewhere if Trump was still there but he’s not – so friendless she will embark on a new tack all alone. Of course she could always make friends with the other rightwing oddballs out there like Erdoğan and Bolsonaro not to forget Orban. Yucks!
September 21, 2022
Well said Sir John, as the ever closer union is never debated not discussed but it is the EU main reason to exist and the crucial hidden agenda.
September 21, 2022
Why have we not had decisions to immediately authorise and encourage onshore gas, coal and oil production? There has been plenty of time, there’s no need for further studies.
The only conclusion is Truss like all government continues to be afraid of opposition from the EU, and from eco-fanatics etc., or she does not wish believe in the benefits to our country herself.
September 21, 2022
I fear that this government will not act on energy, will not increase or allow drilling or fracking…..probably waiting for instructions from the EU
September 21, 2022
The British people voted to cede from the EU. That vote MUST be honoured with all that entails. When the Irish voted to cede from the U.K. their expressed wish was honoured as was that of the six Protestant counties of the north to remain an integral part of the U.K. should Scotland vote to cede from the U.K., their expressed desire will be honoured.
Similarly it it imperative that the expressed will of the people of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson are honoured whether they vote to remain in The Ukraine or return to their ancient homeland of Russia.
To do anything less would be a denial of Democracy upon which the west was founded.
September 21, 2022
With respect to the Republic of Ireland, Ulster and Scotland, ignoring the North Sea oil none of them were ever major contributors to the UK economy, certainly not in the way the UK was a major contributor to the EU’s coffers
It was not us that was hard to let go, it was our ca$h.
September 22, 2022
The North Sea oilfields are in the Shetland area, and Shetland has stated that it will not join Scotland should it cede. So the oilfields are NOT Scottish.
I don’t give a fig about whether constituent parts are financially viable or not. The will of the people, clearly expressed is Sovereign in any democracy. Russia is a Christian Democracy – a detail many miss, so fixated by the mantra Carthāgō dēlenda est are they.
September 21, 2022
I am rereading my old copy of Dieter Helm’s ‘Energy, the State and the Market: British Energy Policy since 1979’. The book is from 2003 so is limited to Mrs T’s years, and the rush for gas. Funnily, there is not much pressure from the EU in those years, years during which a certain Redwood was very close to power. But getting old one forgets, doesn’t one?
Reply We ran our own energy policy in the 80 s. Eu control came later.
September 21, 2022
Sir JR
As is was outlined to you yesterday we could have led our own policy for the past two years and have done nothing. So just blaming the EU is just not correct
Reply Glad you agree the EU policy was damaging.Yes we could have changed it last year.
September 21, 2022
September 22, 2022
You make your own conclusions
September 21, 2022
The Catch 22 is that our policies just happen to be exactly the same policies of the EU, and always will be….coincidence or what
September 21, 2022
TCW has published an article based upon a report by William Kininmonth former head of the Australian Climate Centre highlighted by Andrew Montford questioning the whole global warming myth.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/09/21/does-this-explode-the-great-global-warming-myth/
Is it not time for all countries to really question the whole process in light of the trillions it is costing and for what?
September 21, 2022
+1
September 21, 2022
Sir John,
I well remember ‘Sir’ Nick Clegg’s arrogant assertion during the refendum campaign that the prediction of an EU army was “a dangerous fantasy.” Well now it looks like it’s going to be a dangerous reality. What no-one had predicted at the time is that this EU army would be led by Germany.
September 21, 2022
The EU strategy envisions the creation of an EU rapid deployment force of up to 5,000 soldiers
September 21, 2022
It is entirely irelevant what the EU’s attitude is and has been to energy and Net Zero. We have been free to do our own thing since 2016 yet successive Conservative governments have gone along with the predominately Remainer Civil Service, actively worked to make us more dependent on the EU for energy via interconnectors.
Add to that the ludicrous 2050 Net Zero target that was pursued by the Johnson government at the behest of his wife, and we are in the mess we are in. Hopefully that will now be quietly dropped, or at least put back to 2060 or later.
With the Ukrainian war likely to be more prolonged and increasingly bloody, we must increase our defence spending and reverse manpower cuts in the military immediately, and become self sufficient in energy as soon as humanly possible.
Fracking can be restarted and expanded very quickly, the first SMRs can be in operation within five years as can at least the new Hinkley Point reactors. Then we have new licences for the North Sea which will take some time to bring additional oil and gas ashore.
Yes, it is too little and too late but with effort, we can improve our situation and independence quite dramatically.
Reply We had to follow EU laws and policies until 2020.
September 22, 2022
The parliaments and government chose to agree and follow EU laws and policies since 2016.
September 21, 2022
Off topic, there is a major flaw in this article today:
“A UK/US trade deal was never a likely prospect – or what Leave voters wanted.”
The flaw being that it does not say how little any such deal would be worth to us.
It seems almost impossible to get this across against the prevailing media story.
Here is a letter that I sent to the editor of the Belfast News Letter this morning:
“You report that Liz Truss “has conceded that there is little prospect of an early trade deal with the US”.
In which case she is following the same course as the EU, which started negotiations for a free trade deal in 2013 but abandoned them in 2019, recording on its website:
“Nevertheless, transatlantic trade continues to enjoy one of the lowest average tariffs (under 3%) in the world, governed by World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.”
And the reality is that we too have little to gain through a special trade deal with the US, with a 2019 report by the Department for International Trade projecting that such a deal might enhance our GDP by a trivial 0.1 percent.
This really is a red herring, repeatedly thrust to the fore by EU supporters in their attempts to prevent us from permanently discontinuing the EU checks which the protocol requires to be applied to the wrong flow of goods – imports coming into Northern Ireland – and instead transferring those EU checks to the correct flow of goods – exports crossing the land border into the Irish Republic.”
“Despite the US being the EU’s largest trading partner, there is no dedicated free trade agreement between the EU and the US. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations were launched in 2013, but ended without conclusion at the end of 2016. They were formally closed in 2019 after being considered obsolete. Nevertheless, transatlantic trade continues to enjoy one of the lowest average tariffs (under 3%) in the world, governed by World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.”
For the projected economic benefit to the UK of a special trade deal with the US I take the numbers on page 33 here:
“A trade agreement with the US could increase UK GDP in the long run by around 0.07% (within a range of between 0.02% and 0.15%) or 0.16% (between 0.05% and 0.36%) under scenario 1 and scenario 2 respectively.”
I take the average of those two midpoints, 0.07 and 0.16, to get the rounded average projected benefit of 0.1% of GDP cited in the text of the letter.
BOF
September 21, 2022
But why Sir John, have the majority in parliament consistently failed to see where we were headed with the policies being folllowed? Where was the critical thinking, where was the independence of mind?
I do not remember any speaking out, or if they were, their voices were drowned out. Even I with rudimentary knowledge, knew we were headed for serious problems and when renovating the house in 2000 ensured we had a wood burner that not only heated the room but also radiators and hot water cylinder.
Yes, the EU was a serious problem and that is why I and so many others campaigned to leave.
September 21, 2022
O.K. I admit I did not recognise that ‘the energy system we have followed came from the E.U.’.
In fact I still think that Boris Johnson followed his own ‘Carbon Neutral’ policies, when he was supposed to ‘get brexit done’.
Anyway, Truss seems to be moving in the right direction on some issues but is she moving fast enough on ALL outstanding issues?
Like getting the whole UK out of the EU (Northern Ireland Protocol and what about fish), defending OUR borders against invasion – by illegal immigrants – get out of the E.C.H.R.
She apparently IS encouraging energy production from our own fossil fuels and helping our industries by lower fuel prices but has she done anything to encourage nuclear energy?
Also what, if anything, is being done about a sensible agricultural policy to produce as much as possible of our own food?
September 21, 2022
Sir JR
“Glorified trade arrangement”
This is like you talking about a free trade agreement with the US? When leaving the EU.
September 21, 2022
Punk rockers raised protest against many things, yet during the Queen’s Silver Jubilee they carried banners reading ‘Queen Rules OK’.
In contrast, Remainers want EU Rules above our sovereign right and keep protesting: annoyed at achieving zero effect.
Remainers grouse but now they should duck. The putrid stench of many stagnant EU regulations will soon be flushed out of our way over their heads.
Fedupsoutherner
September 21, 2022
I’m just fed up with this country being told what to do by the USA and France. How about we grow some?
September 21, 2022
Sorry to post so late. REmainers are also execrably bad at criticizing new EU policies (well, not so much policies as stuff decided by the EU Commission). My experience is that they don’t even know what the EU is doing. THey don’t know who the personalities are either. They are probably unaware of growing voices against the EU Commission’s moves to More Europe.
Peter van LEEUWEN
September 22, 2022
The end result of “ever closer union” has not been defined in the European project, leaving a spectrum of representatives (MEPs) to strive towards federalisation and others towards more intergovernmental cooperation. That is why I’ve often used the term of a “hybrid” construction between the two. Various crises and geopolitical developments appear to lead to more integration (closer union). The current UK would not fit well in this construction (in my opinion). No need to speculate 30 or 40 years into the future.
A closer and more trustworthy and reliable cooperation between the two unions would be real progress. With the current UK government I don’t see that happening.
September 22, 2022
The problem Peter, is the vagueness of that very important phrase.
Some on the political spectrum thought it meant a centrally controlled federal superstate with nation member states subsumed.
Others thought it meant closer co-operation of members to their mutual benefit but with sovereignty still within the nation states.
I believe this phrase is the single most destructive concept in the EU and was behind the reason the UK left.
And maybe other members might follow.
I hope the EU will be a success for whosoever remains as enthusiastic members.
September 23, 2022
This important phrase (“DETERMINED to lay the foundations of an ever-closer union among the peoples of Europe”) has been in all European Treaties from the start (e.g. the very first statement in the 1957 Treaty of Rome).
It has always expressed a very strong wish (after the ruins caused by WWII).
As such, it is necessarily somewhat vague, although few people would have taken it to mean increasing the frequency of Eurovision Song Festivals.
Maybe Britain misinterpreted the phrase when it sought to become an EU member. Maybe a strong association with the EU while remaining outside the EU would have been better?
September 24, 2022
They didn’t mention an army, embassies, 5 Presidents, huge law making powers, 27 members a currency and a central bank either Peter.
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John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, and graduated from Magdalen College Oxford. He is a Distinguished fellow of All Souls, Oxford.
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Part of Admin Conduct Broken (if relevant): “Any form of bias in dealing with players is not tolerated, favoritism from players or other staff should not weigh in the decision making process.” “Do not issue a punishment unless you can prove their misconduct through logs” “Maintain a decent standard of professionalism when operating within the community. Insulting, harassing, or intentionally offending anyone in our community is not tolerated.”
Incident Description: I was simply OOCing about erotic roleplay and discussing how it’s really not harmful to the status of the server in a calm debate during roundstart. I was just having some fun with some ironic-ism mixed in to make people cringe and obviously be very satirical about the whole nature of ERP, but near instantly this left-wing leaning parasite comes in and expects me to listen to his drivel. I send him a reply of “What?” as this is a gross fucking harassment and insult on my character as I have not once actually erotically roleplayed on this server. I get this as a response. It is EXTREMELY unbecoming of an admin instead of allowing people to convince something to someone forcing them to shut up because they personally disagree with their opinion about a subject. Admins are supposed to be pillars of the community not bullies who tell people to “Fuck off, degenerate.” to another server because they have a different vision for what the server could be and how the roleplay environment could improve.
Additional Information: I’ve had several bad experiences with some staff members over dumb shit like this because I genuinely have an out-of-the-mold thinking pattern and can back up my opinions with examples and facts where it actually works and helps a server sustain population and where it hasn’t lead to furry fetishism being implemented but because they can’t accept logic that some things work or formulate a retort they have to go “OK retard, stop talking, admin ruling final haha.”
EDIT: I have not once had anyone acknowledge the obvious and blatant violation of the admin conduct, I want a council ruling on this and I want to understand how posting in OOC my thoughts about what is and isn’t ERP could get me banned for ERP, just because someone defends ERP, that doesn’t make them an ERPer nor should they be excluded from the server because of a disagreement with the rules. You wouldn’t ban someone for complaining about the naming rules and conventions so why would you ban someone who thinks that ERP could improve the roleplay environment. All the posts I see here is “LOL GET OUT ERPER” instead of actually reading the nature of the complaint and how it relates to admin conduct, admins are supposed to act professional yet you push that aside and say I deserve it because “bruh erp cringe!!!” It’s honestly disgusting and I have no idea how the people who haven’t added to any significant discussion here got staff, and I know not all staff members are bad, I’ve had legitimate discussion with some on how they think the server could improve with certain rulings and they actually treat me like an equal instead of someone above everybody else. These are the people who deserve exemplification within the server as pillars of the community.
Erotic roleplay is against the rules?
I was simply OOCing about erotic roleplay and discussing how it’s really not harmful to the status of the server in a calm debate during roundstart.
I am sorry I didn’t let you talk about ERP.
I only saw the notice about your ERP shenanigans after the round ended, if I saw it earlier you would have been banned for this.
(I blanked out the names but you can guess who they were)
This was your tickets about them, I don’t know what is your problem with ERP and everything has to be about it.
You were discussing ERP on a server with half of the playerbase made out of children. You have also been cought ERPing. What did you expect?
mynameajeff April 19, 2020, 9:23am #5
You literally did nothing to acknowledge how I felt offended and how you insinuated I was a furry and a degenerate. You are beating around the bush, please actually acknowledge the complaints of how you handled the ticket instead of going “I was just going off of biased notes!” I have done nothing defined as ACTUAL Erotic Roleplay within the server and to permanently ban me for the discussion of rules and policy on the server is fucking Draconian and Orwellian. Stop ignoring the actual complaint.
I didn’t ban you. I said I was going to if you continued.
mynameajeff April 19, 2020, 9:25am #7
I haven’t actually ever ERPed, as an ascended Devil I have posted an erotic copypasta as a joke over comms as well as said other copypastas in OOC. People who acknowledge this as ERP clearly are just looking for reasons to ban people to flex because they think the community will social darwinist them because of their own opinions and grandiose sense of self.
mynameajeff April 19, 2020, 9:26am #8
Yeah, but threatening to is just a step so you can ban and act as if it was justified regardless, it’s unbecoming of a staff member and you continue to strawman and beat around the bush, actually acknowledge the admin conduct you broke and admit your faults.
The only incompetence on my part was not seeing the note sooner and not banning for this.
Ruko April 19, 2020, 9:28am #10
I don’t see any insinuation you’re a furry. I see you being told to “go to a degenerate server if that’s what you want to do”
People who acknowledge this as ERP clearly are just looking for reasons to ban people to flex
You literally reported someone for ERP because they were doing a piggyback. You got in trouble for ERP by reading Erotic literature.
Bestparty April 19, 2020, 9:28am #11
mynameajeff:
I have posted an erotic copypasta as a joke over comms
On MRP? devil happens only on mrp from what I know. And that doesn’t sound mrp-friendly
mynameajeff April 19, 2020, 9:30am #12
And you continue to beat around the bush and strawman while trying to take things out of context yet again, for one, that was just dumb fucking bait, I’m clearly not actually fucking vouching for ERP but I like seeing people cringe about it and sperg out when they can’t formulate an actual opinion against it without being consistent. I did the same thing that Velvet Pinkawalt does and even acknowledge IC and OOC that I am a direct copycat of them. You really have some wrong compulsions on your place inside of the community.
PowerfulBacon April 19, 2020, 9:31am #13
They were riding on someone’s back that is not the same thing
mynameajeff April 19, 2020, 9:32am #14
I had it confirmed by the admins that I could say this in character to this person, I posted it later and was told not to despite it being OK one round? Whatever, it’s irrelevant and frankly just defamation to say I was ERPing by posting a meme in comms.
mynameajeff April 19, 2020, 9:34am #15
I’m talking as in my playtime in general on the server, haha funny ERP bait haha lol!!! Resting on eachother and bwoinking about ERP is bait to get admins like you riled up, you guys can’t defend your beliefs, I could have listless amounts of conversations about why ERP is detrimental to a community beyond “think of the children!” and the greater scope on social constructs in themselves but while intellectually stimulating, that’s not funny! It’s not about the ERP it’s about sending a message.
mynameajeff April 19, 2020, 9:35am #16
Ruko, please understand that he said go to another degenerate server, which implies I’m a degenerate, he also responded out of nowhere in a very hostile tone, clearly trying to oust me from the server because he views me as some untermensch undesirable that needs to be fucking purged and erased from the community.
PowerfulBacon April 19, 2020, 9:35am #17
I didn’t say you were a degenerate, I said go to a degerate server if you want to ERP, which is perfectly reasonable from what you were doing.
Caecilius April 19, 2020, 9:37am #18
Yes because us allowing people to have pretend online sex with other people who are under the age of consent Clearly won’t result in the server being branded as paedophilic…
mynameajeff April 19, 2020, 9:38am #19
Are you melting down? Calling a game server degenerate implies that it’s for degenerates, really you can’t understand how that could offend someone? How threatening them with a permanent ban from the game because they have different views than you could be seen as something an admin shouldn’t want to sponsor?
PowerfulBacon April 19, 2020, 9:39am #20
I have never stated my views on ERP in all of this, I have simply stated that the server does not allow for it. I enforce the servers rules not my own, if you have a problem with it talk to the hosts about our lack of ERP
mynameajeff April 19, 2020, 9:40am #21
That’s the thing, SS13 is full of graphic content, violence and downright scarring things in different communities across the board. It is by no means a game for someone who is underaged, yet games like Grand Theft Auto despite having strip clubs attract swathes of children and other individuals. This doesn’t stop them getting exposed to ERP in other servers which is an inevitability when looking for variety in SS13. I’m not saying ERP is good but I’m saying that it’s not directly detrimental to the server as a whole.
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Many thanks to everyone in our community who continues to support our Rainbow Warrior Football program through Nā Koa Football Club and a warm welcome to our newest members. We appreciate the trust that you show in Nā Koa by the sharing of your time and your treasures.
In the fiscal year that ended on 30 June, Nā Koa continued to support your Warriors in the areas of:
Education
Player safety
Health and nutrition
Nearly $1.25 million was raised in fiscal year 2017 with nearly half coming from the Waterhouse Charitable Trust (the funds from the Trust went primarily to help with Summer School and Cost of Attendance.) The remainder of the funds were raised through membership, various fundraisers, and donations from the community.
Please continue your support of our Warriors. Come to a Coach’s lunch during the football season to hear firsthand from the coaches how the team is doing; share the benefits of membership with your family and friends; go to a game; or make a donation to Nā Koa. Every dollar helps to educate our players and make them stronger and more competitive. We continue on the journey to recapture Pride Rock and want you to be on our team!
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If your only memory of Admiral James Stockdale is his bumbling performance during the 1992 vice-presidential debate, you don’t know the story of his remarkable life.
Stockdale was the highest-ranking United States military man held captive during the Vietnam War. During his captivity from 1965 to 1973, he was tortured over 20 times. Not knowing how long he would be held captive, Stockdale invented an elaborate internal communication system to reduce the sense of isolation from other captives. He disfigured himself so that he could not be used in propaganda videos. After Vietnam, Stockdale became president of The Citadel and a fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford.
For his leadership book Good to Great, Jim Collins interviewed Stockdale. As a prisoner, Stockdale “never lost faith in the end of the story.” Stockdale told Collins, “I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”
Referring to Stockdale’s fellow prisoners, Collins asked, “Who didn’t make it out?”
Collins was confused. To Collins, Stockdale sounded like an optimist. Stockdale explained the optimists were the ones who set a timeline for their release. They expected to be released, for example, by Christmas. Christmas would come and go without deliverance, and “they died of a broken heart.”
From Stockdale’s experience, Collins drew a universal lesson he called the Stockdale Paradox: “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they may be.”
Of his own life experiences Collins observed, “In wrestling with life’s challenges, the Stockdale Paradox (you must retain faith that you will prevail in the end and you must also confront the most brutal facts of your current reality) has proved powerful for coming back from difficulties not weakened, but stronger—not just for me, but for all those who’ve learned the lesson and tried to apply it.”
The Stockdale Paradox has implications for liberty lovers. Freedom in America is objectively on the decline. Constitutional limits on government power are ignored. How do we maintain faith that liberty will prevail when confronted with the “brutal facts” that an illiberal populism is capturing both political parties and will likely be the dominant force in American politics for the foreseeable future?
Faith that liberty “will prevail in the end” is bolstered when we understand illiberalism is at odds with reality.
Illiberalism is based, in part, on the fantastical belief that is possible to take away the rights of one group without diminishing one’s own rights. This is the world of victims and victimizers, us vs. them, a zero-sum world of competing groups where someone else must lose so you can win. In reality, rights are reciprocal. Our rights are maintained by supporting limits on government’s power to take away the rights of others.
Many harboring illiberal beliefs do not understand the essential role of human cooperation. In Hayek’s words, “Our civilization depends, not only for its origin but also for its preservation, on what can be precisely described only as the extended order of human cooperation, an order more commonly, if somewhat misleadingly, known as capitalism.” Many believe the order they depend upon can be improved by their favored politicians and experts.
At odds with the reality of what creates human flourishing, these illiberal beliefs lead to war, poverty, and suffering. Prof. R. J. Rummel estimates that 262 million civilians were slaughtered by governments in the 20th Century. Eventually, people wake up to reality. Yet, history should leave us with no delusions about how long beliefs at odds with reality can be maintained. They can be held long enough to do incalculable harm.
Maintaining Optimism by Making Meaning
Like Stockdale, Viktor Frankl was imprisoned under horrific conditions; Frankl in Nazi concentration camps. Frankl’s Man’s Search for Meaning has helped millions find meaning and purpose, even in dire circumstances. Frankl believed an individual never loses responsibility for decisions they make. “A human being, he wrote, “is not one thing among others; things determine each other, but man is ultimately self-determining.” Frankl continued:
What he becomes—within the limits of endowment and environment—he has made out of himself. In the concentration camps, for example, in this living laboratory and on this testing ground, we watched and witnessed some of our comrades behave like swine while others behaved like saints. Man has both potentialities within himself; which one is actualized depends on decisions but not on conditions.
Frankl’s essay “The Case for a Tragic Optimism” is based on a speech he gave in 1983; the essay is included as a chapter in Man’s Search for Meaning. There Frankl argues for “an optimism in the face of tragedy and a view of the human potential which at its best always allows for: (1) turning suffering into a human achievement and accomplishment; (2) deriving from guilt the opportunity to change oneself for the better; and (3) deriving from life’s transitoriness an incentive to take responsible action.”
In his speech on tragic optimism, Frankl pointed to statistics showing that 30 percent of the population felt their lives had no meaning. Among those suffering from drug and alcohol addictions, 90 percent felt their lives had no meaning.
Frankl taught that we can find meaning “by creating a work or by doing a deed” or “by experiencing something or encountering someone; in other words, meaning can be found not only in work but also in love.” Yet, in contemporary times, meaninglessness seems endemic.
A poll of United Kingdom teenagers and young adults , ages 16-29, taken in 2019 before the pandemic, found 89 percent believed their lives “have no meaning or purpose.” Another survey, taken during the pandemic, finds declines in adults finding meaning in work or relationships.
Frankl sees a way out of this crisis of meaning-making. “Most important,” Frankl wrote, “is the third avenue to meaning in life: even the helpless victim of a hopeless situation, facing a fate he cannot change, may rise above himself, may grow beyond himself, and by so doing change himself. He may turn a personal tragedy into a triumph.”
Echoing Stockdale’s observations, Frankl pointed to research conducted at the Yale University School of Medicine, which reported many prisoners of war during the Vietnam war “claimed that although their captivity was extraordinarily stressful—filled with torture, disease, malnutrition, and solitary confinement—they nevertheless . . . benefited from the captivity experience, seeing it as a growth experience.’”
Frankl addressed “prisoners in San Quentin” and advised them that “you are human beings like me, and as such you were free to commit a crime, to become guilty. Now, however, you are responsible for overcoming guilt by rising above it, by growing beyond yourselves, by changing for the better.” For those who have made mistakes, Frankl saw the possibility of redemption.
Frankl observed those taking responsibility for their crimes in his interactions with prisoners. These prisoners had no desire to explain away their guilt, for “explaining away his or her guilt [would be] seeing in him or her not a free and responsible human being but a machine to be repaired.” Today, eschewing responsibility and blaming society are encouraged.
That we all face death motivates meaning-making in life. Frankl asks, “Is not this transitoriness a reminder that challenges us to make the best possible use of each moment of our lives?” Frankl continued with this principle of living: “Live as if you were living for the second time and had acted as wrongly the first time as you are about to act now.”
Taking Responsibility
Frankl pointed us to a radical sense of responsibility by honoring our freedom to decide our attitude. He famously wrote, “Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms—to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”
The more we live by Frankl’s credo, the less win-lose, us vs. them thinking there will be, and the more liberty will be supported. It is an illiberal mindset that blames victimizers and demands the government exert power to treat some groups differently than others.
We like to think of ourselves as responsible human beings, but there is room for improvement in all of us. We want to believe the problem is that others are not behaving responsibly, but there is not much leverage in waiting for others to change.
If you are unsure how to be more responsible, I suggest a radical exercise as you go about your daily life: Observe each time you blame someone or something for your actions and withdraw from blaming. Are we as resentful as those we accuse of opposing liberty?
In his book Bonds That Make Us Free, philosopher C. Terry Warner writes, “To take up a hard, resentful attitude toward others is to have to live in a resented world, a world full of people who oppose and threaten us. How they are in our eyes is reflective of how we are.”
Warner points out we can adopt a mindset where we “nurse our misfortunes as if they were badges of honor.” He continues, “we believe we suffer our setbacks and failures because of other people and achieve our successes in spite of them, making it also a combative and controlling way of being.”
The Stockdale Paradox reminds us that when faith falters, turning to false optimism is not the path forward. Such optimism, wrote Frankl in Yes to Life: In Spite of Everything, “lull[s] us into complacency and… a rosy fatalism.”
The world in 2022 faces many “brutal facts,” yet Frankl pointed the way to the timeless understanding that we are not powerless. We can choose to be better people today in our daily actions. Frankl wrote, “If today we cannot sit idly by, it is precisely because each and every one of us determines what and how far something ‘progresses.’” We don’t have to lose faith in the story of liberty. As we live as responsible, free people, aligned with the reality of human flourishing, liberty prevails.
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The Students’ Union of the Eastern University of Sri Lanka has expressed its vehement condemnation of the demolition of the Mullivaikal memorial monument in Jaffna University, calling for the reconstruction of the demolished structure and demanded that symbols of Tamil identity be protected at universities.
“In addition to emphasizing that the memorial monument be reconstructed in the same area, we demand that protection of symbols of Tamil identity be ensured at universities,” read a statement released this morning.
It further noted that the destruction of the monument would plunge Tamils, who are still reeling from scars caused by the war, to greater agony.
“The demolition of a monument that commemorates the thousands of lost lives in the war subjects Tamils, who are still recovering from the consequences of the war, to greater agony,” it added. “The Eastern University and the people of the Eastern parts vehemently condemn this act”.
The statement added that protection of memorial structures belonging to each community in the country is imperative to social harmony. “Destruction of memorial structures or historical symbols in the country, belonging to any community, in such a way that it disregards the sentiment of the people is unacceptable and protection of such monuments is the duty of every citizen who seeks harmony in the society,” it said.
The statement also expressed its support for the hartal that is scheduled to take place on January 11, Monday, as a mark of protest against the destruction of the memorial.
“We extend our complete support for the North-East wide hartal about to take place tomorrow and request that people who live in the North and East also do so.”
The demolition of the Mullivaikal memorial has caused widespread protest and anger against the Sri Lankan government.
Read the full statement in Tamil below.
10 January 2021 : Students hunger strike in Jaffna as outrage over monument destruction grows
09 January 2021 : Two Jaffna University students released on bail
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Sri Lanka is one of the most dangerous places in the world to be a journalist. Tamil journalists are particularly at threat, with at least 41 media workers known to have been killed by the Sri Lankan state or its paramilitaries during and after the armed conflict.
Despite the risks, our team on the ground remain committed to providing detailed and accurate reporting of developments in the Tamil homeland, across the island and around the world, as well as providing expert analysis and insight from the Tamil point of view
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Remember May 2009
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There are many things to consider when hiring concrete contractors, such as what their credentials are. A concrete contractor can be a beneficial asset to any construction project, but there are certain steps that should be taken to ensure you will hire someone who will do a good job for you. Most of the time, you can obtain information on a concrete contractor by asking questions at various businesses, such as home improvement stores, apartment complexes and flooring stores. You may also find concrete contractors by placing an ad in the newspaper or on the Internet.
The first thing you need to do when trying to find concrete contractors is to create a business plan for your project. A business plan is essentially a list of your goals and the methods you will use to reach them. A concrete contractor should be able to help you with your business plan by providing you with statistics showing how long their company has been around and details about their expertise.
It is important to talk to several different contractors before making a final decision on who you want to employ to do a concrete repair job on your building. One way to find concrete contractors is to post ads in neighborhoods. Ask if anyone has a business that they would recommend. Another way is to attend local contractors meetings to network with other commercial concrete contractors.
After determining which concrete contractors need to be employed, it is important to determine the level of experience they have. For instance, there are different levels of experience for doing concrete works, such as installing pavers, sanding, pouring concrete and more. You should consider which level of experience a contractor has before making a decision. There is always the option of hiring a contractor that has been doing concrete work for many years, but this might cost you more. However, experienced concrete contractors need to be properly tested to ensure that they can do a good repair job on your building.
Most commercial cement contractors also have a website where their customers and clients can go to learn more about them. They may have testimonials and references to look at as well. It is also a good idea to ask your potential contractor's questions before hiring them. If the answers provided are satisfactory, they will likely be able to provide you with a list of past jobs and even let you see pictures of what they have done in the past. You can also request free estimates from concrete contractors, which can greatly increase productivity as they can show you their level of ability and tell you how much they plan on charging you.
Commercial concrete contractors can significantly increase productivity by contracting with qualified and experienced workers. The best results can be achieved when workers are skilled and knowledgeable at what they do. This is why you need to thoroughly research each company you are considering before hiring them to complete your cement work. With a little bit of research and thorough interviews, you can get a much better idea about which concrete contractors are the best at what they do.
The area that is now Austell was frequented by game hunters and trappers on their way to the area's salt licks. These early visitors claimed the area's waters had medicinal properties. It soon became a destination for therapeutic healing, leading to the founding of a town known as Salt Springs. As immigration increased and demand for land near the spring grew, G. O. Mozely donated and subdivided 40 acres (16 ha) of his land, enhancing the loose settlement with a street plan. Later, the spring was renamed Lithia Springs due to the water containing lithium carbonate, and the neighboring city of Lithia Springs was founded in 1882. In 1888, the lithia spring water was bottled and sold under the commercial name Bowden Lithia Spring Water. The historic lithia spring water is still bottled and sold under the name brand Lithia Spring Water. The Georgia Pacific Railway chose the town of Austell to be a station depot, being the dividing point for the major Birmingham and Chattanooga railway lines.
Austell was incorporated in 1885. The town is named for General Alfred Austell (1814–1881), in recognition of his efforts to bring major railways to the South. General Austell also founded the Atlanta National Bank (later renamed First Atlanta), which eventually became part of Wachovia and later Wells Fargo through various mergers and acquisitions. General Austell is buried in an elaborate Gothic Revival–style mausoleum at the highest point in Atlanta's Oakland Cemetery.
In 2009, Sweetwater Creek flooded, destroying many homes and businesses in the Austell area.
Austell is located along the southern border of Cobb County at 33°48′57″N 84°38′10″W / 33.81583°N 84.63611°W / 33.81583; -84.63611 (33.815905, −84.636242). A small portion of the city extends south into Douglas County. It is bordered by Lithia Springs to the south and Mableton to the east. The city of Powder Springs is 4 miles (6 km) to the northwest. U.S. Route 78 passes through the city, leading east 15 miles (24 km) to downtown Atlanta and west 8 miles (13 km) to Douglasville.
According to the United States Census Bureau, Austell has a total area of 6.0 square miles (15.5 km), of which 0.015 square miles (0.04 km2), or 0.24%, is water.
Sweetwater Creek, a tributary of the Chattahoochee River, flows through the city, passing north, then east of the city center. The area is relatively flat, with few large hills.
According to the Köppen classification, Austell has a humid subtropical climate with hot, humid summers and mild, but occasionally cold winters by the standards of the southern United States. The city experiences four distinct seasons. Summers are hot and humid, with a July daily average of 89 °F (32 °C). In a normal summer it is not unusual for temperatures to exceed 90 °F (32 °C). Winters are mild, windy, with some warm, sunny days and occasional snow, with a January average high of 50 °F (10 °C) and low of 30 °F (−1 °C). Occasionally, high temperatures will struggle to reach 40 °F (4 °C), and nights can dip into the teens. Subzero temperatures are very uncommon and only occur once every decade or so.
As of the 2020 United States census, there were 7,713 people, 2,691 households, and 1,794 families residing in the city.
As of the census of 2000, there were 5,359 people, 2,009 households, and 1,386 families residing in the city. The population density was 942.1 inhabitants per square mile (363.7/km2). There were 2,144 housing units at an average density of 376.9 per square mile (145.5/km). The racial makeup of the city is:
There were 2,009 households, out of which 35.0% had children under the age of 18 living with them, 44.3% were married couples living together, 18.5% had a female householder with no husband present, and 31.0% were non-families. Of all households, 24.5% were made up of individuals, and 6.0% had someone living alone who was 65 years of age or older. The average household size was 2.66 and the average family size was 3.15.
In the city, the population was spread out, with 27.3% under the age of 18, 9.5% from 18 to 24, 37.0% from 25 to 44, 17.8% from 45 to 64, and 8.3% who were 65 years of age or older. The median age was 32 years. For every 100 females, there were 97.8 males. For every 100 females age 18 and over, there were 93.4 males.
The median income for a household in the city was $38,933, and the median income for a family was $39,635. Males had a median income of $31,750 versus $22,944 for females. The per capita income for the city was $15,924. About 11.0% of families and 12.8% of the population were below the poverty line, including 13.0% of those under age 18 and 8.8% of those age 65 or over.
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I have to be honest, Slovenia was not always on my list of places to visit. I simply didn’t know much about the country. But, I did end up visiting Slovenia last summer and it completely blew me away. Slovenia is one of the most “outdoorsy” countries in the world, with more than half the land covered in forest, more than 7,000 kilometers of hiking trails, and home to the largest population of brown bears in all of Europe. Knowing these facts alone would make me jump at the idea of visiting and going hiking in Slovenia.
one of my first impression of Slovenia occurred when my wife and I were driving one of Slovenia’s highways towards our first destination, the city of Bled. We had just come from Croatia and the landscape had changed quite a bit. Sitting in the passenger seat, I glanced out the window and found myself overcome with a familiar feeling rushing through me. It was the feeling you get when a place reminds you a little bit of home. The route was void of traffic. The openness of the road allowed my eyes to quickly flicker back and forth as undulating green hills and undeveloped landscapes rolled by.
Church of St. John the Baptist on the banks of Bohinj Lake
As we entered Bled, we were greeted by alpine-style buildings lining the main street. We took a quick drive around famous Lake Bled, which was dabbled with visitors walking, biking, and snapping photographs around and about the lake’s well maintained pathways. We were not actually in the mountains yet, but I knew that Slovenia was a place that could potentially capture my heart forever. And, it only got better.
Boats on beautiful Lake Bled
After an initial visit to the tourist information center, we drove to Bohinj and around Studor, a town in the Upper Bohinj Valley. Everything was so green and misty that the fog made things feel captivatingly mystical. Save the occasional hikers, the roads were almost empty. We parked our car on the roadside to snap pictures of the famous double hayracks, a staple icon of Slovenia.
We walked through towns with incredibly narrow streets and houses packed tightly together. The reason for this dense concentration of buildings is to preserve the availability of the surrounding farmland. The architecture was beautifully quaint, and it felt typically alpine. We meandered up a hill with a church at the top, and found that we were being followed by a local cat who seemed to be enjoying the views of the town below almost as much as we were. Slovenia is a country with one of the largest numbers of religious buildings per capita in the world. We would see many more of these buildings.
Narrow streets in Bohinj
The next days were spent exploring different parts of the Julian Alps and Triglav National Park. We took a cable car up to Vogel Mountain, which takes you up about 1000 meters in less than five minutes—one of the fastest cable cars in the world, as a matter of fact. We hiked upward, alongside one of the mountain’s chairlifts—Vogel Mountain is a well-known ski resort in Slovenia and is open year-round. At the top, we continued on a trail that took us around blind bends, up and down gravely trails and, finally, toward a view that made me feel completely insignificant. Standing on the side of the mountain, we experienced that feeling of awe when you recognize what a beautiful world we live in. Well, this was Slovenia.
View from the Vogel Ski Center from the Vogel Ski Center
The following days we engaged in similar activities and had the pleasure of tasting local foods, meeting other tourists and seeing a bit more of the sheer beauty that Slovenia has to offer. We went on a few more hikes, one of which was across the gorgeous peaceful alpine meadows of Pokljuka. We walked through canyons, past waterfalls and along rivers.
Whether you’re someone who loves to ski, hike or just let yourself be refreshed by natural beauty, Slovenia is a place that deserves your attention. I certainly enjoyed my time there and hope to go back someday, especially for a long distance hike. Slovenia, you treated me well and from what we experienced, I can truthfully repeat their motto: I Feel Slovenia.
Written by and photos by Bram Reusen for EuropeUpClose.com
By Author Bram Reusen
Posted on Published: November 16, 2015 - Last updated: February 17, 2018
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The budget passed by state lawmakers last week expanded the sales tax base to include additional services that are not currently taxed. Accordingly, the repair or upkeep of a vehicle, the repair of a broken washer or dryer, or the maintenance of an air conditioning unit will now be subject to the sales tax.
It appears that the weekend gave policymakers time for some second thoughts about their plan, however. This week, state lawmakers are now aiming to pass a bill that will roll back one particular aspect of the sales tax base expansion included in the budget.
House Bill 117 (HB 117) includes a provision that would exempt repair, maintenance, and installation services on tangible property and motor vehicles covered under manufacturer or dealer warranties from the sales tax. Accordingly, under HB 117, if your vehicle or tangible property is covered under a warranty then you don’t pay a sales tax on repair and upkeep services. To the contrary, if your vehicle or other tangible property is not covered under a manufacturer or dealer warranty then you will pay more in sales taxes.
This tax change means that two people can own similar tangible property, but one could potentially end up paying more in sales taxes simply because they don’t have a manufacturer or dealer warranty. This is troubling because it is likely to particularly harm low-income taxpayers who already pay a larger share of their income in taxes compared to the well-off. Low-income taxpayers who have to take their non-warranted vehicle to an auto shop for an unexpected repair will pay more in sales taxes, for example. Meanwhile, those who are able to afford costly warranties will escape having to pay more in sales taxes.
The backtracking on services included in the sales tax base expansion contradicts state lawmakers’ supposed commitment to base broadening on principle. Broadening the sales tax base has been sold as a way to make the state’s tax code more effective and ensure that it reflects a more service-oriented economy. That appears to be the case only if powerful lobbyists don’t object.
The result is that this proposed tax change could lower the expected additional revenue generated from expanding the sales tax base. This additional revenue is included in the budget passed by state lawmakers. The sales tax base expansion pays for a small portion of the next round of costly income tax cuts that were also included in the budget. Even with the sales tax base expansion, the income tax cuts drive the total annual revenue loss from the tax plan to nearly $1 billion by fiscal year 2018.
This last-minute carve-out also has implications for the budget passed on last Friday since policymakers must have the revenue to meet spending commitments. It is certainly true that state lawmakers could point to the $182.6 million in unappropriated revenue in the budget for this fiscal year as a way to cover the revenue hole. However, this unappropriated revenue is one-time dollars while the reduced revenue from the proposed tax change is permanent and recurring. This last-minute change also raises questions as to how the newly designed distribution formula that changes how sales tax revenue is allocated across local communities will be affected.
The narrow backtracking on the sales tax base expansion does not make the state’s upside-down tax code any better. State lawmakers failed to address this reality in the budget they passed and this failure continues with HB 117. Rather than addressing the tax shift, policymakers continue to build a tax code that fails to ensure the state can adequately fund the foundations of an economy that works for everyone.
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Not so fast, more proposed tax changes that affect state budget
The budget passed by state lawmakers last week expanded the sales tax base to include additional services that are not currently taxed. Accordingly, the repair or upkeep of a vehicle, the repair of a broken washer or dryer, or the maintenance of an air conditioning unit will now be subject to the sales tax. It appears that the weekend gave policymakers time for some second thoughts about their plan, however. This week, state lawmakers are now aiming to pass a bill that will roll back one particular aspect of the sales tax base expansion included in the budget. <a href="http://www.ncleg.net/Applications/BillLookUp/LoadBillDocument.aspx?SessionCode=2015&DocNum=6299&SeqNum=0">House Bill 117</a> (HB 117) includes a provision that would exempt repair, maintenance, and installation services on tangible property and motor vehicles covered under manufacturer or dealer warranties from the sales tax. Accordingly, under HB 117, if your vehicle or tangible property is covered under a warranty then you don’t pay a sales tax on repair and upkeep services. To the contrary, if your vehicle or other tangible property is not covered under a manufacturer or dealer warranty then you will pay more in sales taxes. This tax change means that two people can own similar tangible property, but one could potentially end up paying more in sales taxes simply because they don’t have a manufacturer or dealer warranty. This is troubling because it is likely to particularly harm low-income taxpayers who already pay a larger share of their income in taxes compared to the well-off. Low-income taxpayers who have to take their non-warranted vehicle to an auto shop for an unexpected repair will pay more in sales taxes, for example. Meanwhile, those who are able to afford costly warranties will escape having to pay more in sales taxes. The backtracking on services included in the sales tax base expansion contradicts state lawmakers’ supposed commitment to base broadening on principle. Broadening the sales tax base has been sold as a way to make the state’s tax code more effective and ensure that it reflects a more service-oriented economy. That appears to be the case only if powerful lobbyists don’t object.<span id="more-74264"></span> The result is that this proposed tax change could lower the expected additional revenue generated from expanding the sales tax base. This additional revenue is included in the budget passed by state lawmakers. The sales tax base expansion pays for a small portion of the next round of costly income tax cuts that were also included in the budget. Even with the sales tax base expansion, the income tax cuts drive the total annual revenue loss from the tax plan to nearly $1 billion by fiscal year 2018. This last-minute carve-out also has implications for the budget passed on last Friday since policymakers must have the revenue to meet spending commitments. It is certainly true that state lawmakers could point to the $182.6 million in unappropriated revenue in the budget for this fiscal year as a way to cover the revenue hole. However, this unappropriated revenue is one-time dollars while the reduced revenue from the proposed tax change is permanent and recurring. This last-minute change also raises questions as to how the newly designed distribution formula that changes how sales tax revenue is allocated across local communities will be affected. The narrow backtracking on the sales tax base expansion does not make the state’s upside-down tax code any better. State lawmakers failed to address this reality in the budget they passed and this failure continues with HB 117. Rather than addressing the tax shift, policymakers continue to build a tax code that fails to ensure the state can adequately fund the foundations of an economy that works for everyone.
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Running Scared comes out this Friday, making it the 3,526th Paul Walker movie to come out in the last 2 years. And it looks like as much of a turd as the other 3,525. Seriously, how does this no-talent ass-clown keep getting work? I just can't watch his movies. They actually cause me physical pain.
Now a bit of a tangent concerning Paul Walker's last movie, Eight Below, which came out five whole days ago (see the above rant). Hasn't Disney done enough dogsled/arctic/wolf movies? After just a quick look at the last 25 years worth of Disney movies i see Eight Below, Snow Dogs, Iron Will, White Fang, The Journey of Natty Gann, and Never Cry Wolf. That's an average of about one dogsled/arctic/wolf movie every 3.67 years since 1983, and i'm sure i'm missing some. I realize Hollywood hasn't exactly been a beacon of creativity in recent years, but that's ridiculous!
Posted by Tim S at 6:08 PM
Sunday, February 19, 2006
Olympics are all about niche events
With the Winter Olympics in full swing, i can't help but wonder why on earth "events", not sports, like ice dancing are in the Olympics (isn't it just pair figure skating without the tricks?). Or why NBC would broadcast hour after mindless hour of cross-country skiing which is about as riveting as their start-to-finish coverage of the marathon at the Summer Olympics. Then it occurs to me that the Olympics are all about niche sports. With a few exceptions, it's basically a two-week exhibition of bizarre competitions that comes along every four years.
That point was further driven home by the illustrious IOC's decision back on July 8, 2005, to drop baseball and softball from the 2012 Summer Olympics in London. Why was this, you ask? Well, while the exact reasons for this aren't clear since the IOC never feels the need to justify their actions and does everything with secret ballots, there are several plausible theories.
Many have accused the IOC of being predominantly European-centric; even anti-America at times. While baseball is still very popular in North America and Asia, it's popularity in Europe is minimal at best.
Another theory is that the field isn't competitive enough. Cuba has won 3 out of 4 baseball gold medals (the U.S. won the other in 2000 over Cuba). The U.S. has won 3 of 3 softball gold medals, outscoring their opponents 51-1 at the 2004 games in Sydney. But anyone who saw 1992's basketball Dream Team dominate compared to 2004's U.S. team limp to a weak bronze medal finish knows that it's only a matter of time before these things balance out. And going back to the previous argument, with basketball's fast growing popularity in Europe, i doubt you'll see it get dropped anytime soon.
And speaking of competitive fields, how many Winter Olympic events fall into the "which Scandanavian country is going to win today" category? Or which Russian skater is going to win?
Another popular target for finger-pointing is Major League Baseball and their constant refusal to allow their meal tickets, er, players to compete. Their ignorant, short-sighted response to the IOC was essentially that baseball doesn't need the Olympics and it won't affect them one bit. Nevermind other sports (like basketball) that have used the games as a platform to increase the popularity of their sports.
And speaking of niche sports, i'm off to watch the US curling team in action. And while both the men's and women's U.S. teams are from my home state of Minnesota, i had no idea how the sport was played until i looked up the rules online (thank you, internet) just a few days ago. And heck, the only reason i started watching in the first place is because i think Cassie and Jamie Johnson are cute. :)
Posted by Tim S at 6:30 PM
Saturday, February 4, 2006
I'm currently 28 years old and by my math i figure i've been driving for about 13 of them (probably more like 14 or 15 if my parents aren't around). And during all of those years, not once did i ever lock myself out of my car. I was always the guy walking by thinking, "poor bastard". Well today, i was that poor bastard.
Not only that, but i must say my timing is impeccable. Could i have chosen a nice, warm July afternoon for my first time? Oh no. I did it on a windy, chilly day when it was, oh, about 18 degrees outside -- and yes, that would be Fahrenheit. To make matters worse, i chose a Home Depot parking lot on the Saturday before the Super Bowl so calling it a tad busy would be a bit of an understatement. And that awesome front row parking spot that i scored when i got there, when i so clearly remember thinking "man, it must be my lucky day!", was now assuring that every customer of the Bloomington Home Depot got themselves a great gawking opportunity; many of them giving me that awkward half-smile half-frown and shaking their heads as if to say, "poor bastard".
But then i thought, "hey that's right, i signed up for AAA a few months ago!". So after waiting for a good 45 minutes or so, my savior arrived in the form of Mike the tow truck guy. Or so i thought. It turns out that BMWs (see my car, right) are exceptionally hard to break into. Normally, this little factoid would give me some quality peace-of-mind. Unfortunately, on this particular day it was preventing Mike from getting in despite using a variety of different methods.
Probably around 15-20 minutes into the ordeal, as i was starting to lose faith in Mike the tow truck guy, i thought that i had a new savior in the form of a guy that i can only describe as a fatter, drunker Santa. Or maybe Kenny Rogers if he were to gain about 150 pounds. I first noticed him a row over in the parking lot just staring in my direction. As i was getting ready to ask him if perhaps he'd care to take a picture so he can laugh at my expense later on too, he walked over and informed us that he runs a towing company down in Miami. Before i know it, he's digging into Mike's vast inventory of tools and attempting a little open car surgery. Unfortunately, drunk Kenny Rogers Santa didn't do much better than Mike the tow truck guy. Argh!
So i was left with the options of letting Mike break a window (which he seemed way too eager to do), wait for hours/days for a locksmith to unlock my trunk, or let Mike tow it 12 miles to my condo at $3/mile. The clear choice seemed to be option #3.
Fortunately, i knew the security guard working the front desk of my building so he did me a solid and let me into my apartment (since those keys were also safe and sound inside my trunk) where i got my extra set of keys.
On the bright side, once i was finally inside my car, i resumed my errands with a trip to Surdyk's (my local liquor emporium) to get some essentials for tomorrow's Super Bowl party and there just happened to be a cute girl handing out free samples of Samuel Adams!
Posted by Tim S at 11:32 AM
Monday, January 30, 2006
This past weekend, the Gopher hockey team swept the former #1 Wisconsin Badgers at Madison. Now, first let me say that I make no attempt to hide the fact that I'm a Gopher fan. But all biases aside, I was amazed by the reaction of the Badgers fans towards Madison-born phenom Phil Kessel.
Every time Kessel touched the puck, Bucky-backers let him hear it with a chorus of boos. Keep in mind, this is an 18-year-old kid who was raised a mere 10 minutes from the University of Wisconsin's Madison campus. I usually hate this kind of fan reaction whether it be Knobluach returning to Minnesota with the Yankees, Bertuzzi and inexplicably bitter Wild fans, the list goes on and on. But what makes this all the more ridiculous is that this is the first year that I can remember where there hasn't been more Minnesotans than Wisconsinites playing for the cardinal and white!
So is it just the sheer caliber of player? True, some have Kessel going as high as the #1 overall pick in this summer's NHL entry draft. But i would counter that Zach Parise was a phenomenal player who was born and raised in Minnesota but went to the University of North Dakota. Yet I can't remember a Gopher home game where Parise was booed.
I guess one possible explanation is simply that Minnesotans are used to producing so much young hockey talent that I would wager that most Division I schools have at least one Minnesotan on their roster. Actually trying to boo every Minnesotan playing for another team would just be impossible. I could sit here for hours thinking of excellent Minnesota players who didn't play for the maroon and gold.
I suppose another reason could be that there are a total of 5 in-state Division I hockey schools so maybe we're just used to competing against fellow Minnesotans.
And on the other hand, Fighting Sioux fans certainly had their opportunity to boo native North Dakotan Gophers like Grant Potulny, Ryan Potulny, and Danny Irmen (and my memory could be a little spotty here) but I don't recall ever hearing it when we played up there. I may have heard a jab here or there when Grant Potulny got the game-winning OT goal in the national championship game in 2002, but that's about it.
The highlight of the weekend came in the third period of the Saturday night finale when Kessel quieted the crowd with a superb wrist-shot goal.
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October 25 was the 19th anniversary of the Halloween party during which I got a little tipsy, sprawled on the floor to leg wrestle a co-worker, stuffed a bunch of marshmallows into my mouth, picked up pieces of paper from the floor with my tongue, and decided that I wanted to marry (or at least date) Jeff the Intern.
This photo was taken somewhere between the leg wrestling and the marshmallows:
October 26 was the 19th anniversary of the second and final time I ever went into a haunted house. I went only because Jeff was going, and I later found out that he went only because I was going. I held onto his blue jacket during the walk through the house because I was scared, I couldn’t see, and I wanted to feel the spark that results from touching the jacket of a future husband (or at least date). Before leaving his apartment that evening, I gave him a pumpkin. (That is not a euphemism. I gave him a pumpkin.)
October 28th was the 19th anniversary of being asked out by Jeff the Intern.
October 31st was the 19th anniversary of a happy hour that ended with Jeff joining me for diner toast and me joining him during an awkward interaction with his ex’s sister while a funk band blasted cover songs at a bar called Helen Fitzgerald’s. My sweater was unfashionably long, so I tucked it into my jeans and that damned sweater never did anything nice for me.
Yesterday was the 19th anniversary of our first date, which included a navy blue sweater on him and an embarrassingly see-through shirt on me (it was 1996 and I, apparently, was Madonna), and Thai food and an art museum film with the promise of a Lynn Redgrave sighting and coffee at his place and an allergic reaction to Luna, his cat, who enjoyed chewing on the buttons of my jeans.
Today is the 19th anniversary of our second date, which involved peach bread pudding and seeing a movie called Tromeo and Juliet, which was just horrible and inappropriate for a second date, but it didn’t stop us from having a third.
I could go on and on and I would go on and on, but this morning I was sitting at an appointment passing time with a book and I came across the following quote from “Tess of the d’Urbervilles”:
‘She philosophically noted dates as they came past in the revolution of the year; . . . her own birthday; and every other day individualized by incidents in which she had taken some share. She suddenly thought one afternoon, when looking in the glass at her fairness, that there was yet another date, of greater importance to her than those; that of her own death, when all these charms would have disappeared; a day which lay sly and unseen among all the other days of the year, giving no sign or sound when she annually passed over it; but not the less surely there. When was it?’
(Picture my eyes growing slightly wider and then picture me picturing the girls as adults listing their memories and including the day that I DIED and as much as I love thinking about death and what lies beyond (I know!) I also love NOT thinking about death.)
Anyway. Shortly after I read that quote, my doctor told me to stop drinking caffeine after noon. (I still can’t sleep but I refuse to take sleeping pills. I’m DIFFICULT, but she’s willing to work with me because I don’t believe that essential oils will cure cancer and I write with a fountain pen.) She then handed me a few brochures and sent me on my (completely healthy) way. My watch told me that it was 11:53, so I hauled ass to the mall for a caramel macchiato. (Having only seven minutes for caffeine and a mall coffee dump less than two minutes away felt like a hair tousle from the hand of God. Hearing Christmas music play as soon as I walked through the automatic doors was more than a tousle. It was the thrill of a blue jacket in a haunted house, and I mean that in the best possible way.) ‘ ‘ ‘text/javascript’>
Author fluidpuddingPosted on November 2, 2015 November 2, 2015 Categories Daily
8 thoughts on “I move about in a mental cloud of many-coloured idealities, Thomas Hardy.”
November 2, 2015 at 2:42 pm
October 19 was our 41st wedding anniversary. 41 years of alternately groaning and giggling at my husband’s jokes. Many more years to look forward to reading your blog.
November 2, 2015 at 2:55 pm
Happy All The Anniversaries! And fingers crossed on the reduced caffeine. Getting completely off caffeine was one of the best things I ever did, but probably the second most physically difficult after giving birth, so there you go.
Kim says:
November 2, 2015 at 3:16 pm
Hearing you wax poetic about your anniversaries makes me feel warm and fuzzy. He is your lobster :)
Carole G. says:
November 2, 2015 at 3:29 pm
November 2, 2015 at 3:43 pm
I was there and I think that makes me almost web famous or something . . .
Deanna says:
November 3, 2015 at 4:24 pm
But more importantly, I need to know how to make Peach Bread Pudding!
Carroll says:
November 4, 2015 at 12:19 am
Oh my goodness. I am imagining a journal with space for, say, 50 entries for each day of the year. You could just keep going year after year. Amazing revelations would ensue. “Gosh, kids, this is the 48th anniversary of that time we rushed out of the house to take the dog to the vet…but forgot to take the dog!” Why oh why have I never thought to do this? “Too late now”, she says to herself, despite that extra hour the other day. I tell ya, Angela…a century? Not nearly as long as I used to think it was!
(I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating — you and your kids are SO going to treasure this blog thing of yours. Such a gift! :-) )
November 4, 2015 at 5:56 pm
November 2nd is the Dia de los Muertos (Day of the Dead) for adults. My mother died on this date, which has always seemed to me her final dramatic flourish in a life that she filled with dramatic flourishes. Dates are curious things.
But the dates that you cite, about Dates! are the best of the best. The fact that you, nineteen years later, are still reflecting on the minutia of your meeting and courting and marrying Jeff the Intern says volumes about what a lovely woman you are, and what a lovely choice you (and he) made back then. Cheers for getting a little tipsy at just the right times.
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I put it out there
I voted for Michael Dukakis.
Perhaps I’ll weave a placemat out of human hair.
A sweater. A song.
and you talked back
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Jael Goldfine at the National Women’s Law Center blog asks why it’s being treated as so disreputable to point out victimization.
While anti-victim sentiment has a long, ugly history in the American ethos, the last several years have been characterized by a new form of hostility towards victims. The idea that we are living in a “culture of victimhood” – which glorifies victimhood, encourages hypersensitivity, attention-seeking, and complaint – has become a mainstay within conservative thought, and the viral buzz-phrase has been wielded by liberal and conservative writers alike.
Yes. I’ve been watching that, with mixed feelings and thoughts. I often do see what the critics are getting at; there can be self-indulgent or self-obsessed versions, and that’s not a particularly healthy way to see the world. A decent politics is founded on giving a damn about other people’s problems as well as your own, so too much focus on outrages to the Self is a bad way to go. On the other hand…callous dismissiveness is not helpful either, and we do get to report injustices done to us as well as those done to other people.
Goldfine points out that the Stanford rape victim’s statement is a good place to look for why such things can be necessary.
But, perhaps, as believers in cultural victimhood would posit, by sharing her letter, she’s “playing the victim.”
My question is, why shouldn’t she? The rape culture in our country and on our campuses makes victims of women. Why is sexual assault survivor bringing attention to her victimhood perceived as playing the victim, and not instead, as exposing the bully?
Because this is exactly what she has done: rewritten the narrative, revealing the bullies in the story, for everyone to see: Turner, who insisted the encounter was consensual; his father, who reduced her rape to a regrettable “20 minutes of action;” their lawyers who attempted to frame her as culpable in her own assault; and Judge Aaron Persky, who decided that the violation of a woman’s bodily autonomy is worth only six months in jail – the same sentence one can receive for stealing a library book.
This is the power of victimhood: to expose unjust power relations in a way that leaves the powers-that-be looking petty and shameful. To wrestle the public and moral narrative away from the dominant, default versions, which so often favor the privileged and powerful. To force confrontation with the violence women suffer in our society, and to disallow for indifference to the injustice of the systems that enable sexual violence, and protect those who commit it.
That also applies to the stories people are telling of encountering racism at the supermarket in the UK right now. We need to know.
Related posts
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Hegemonic narrative strikes again
2 Responses to “Rewriting the narrative”
#1
June 27, 2016 at 1:22 pm
to expose unjust power relations in a way that leaves the powers-that-be looking petty and shameful. To wrestle the public and moral narrative away from the dominant, default versions, which so often favor the privileged and powerful
This is what we need.
Hypersensitivity, attention-seeking–“self-indulgent or self-obsessed” complaining–these things help nobody. These are what we don’t need.
June 28, 2016 at 7:42 am
Conversely, the abusers and fascists almost uniformly take on the color of ‘victim’ in their own view. Turner is a ‘promising young man’ who might have to suffer for his ‘mistake.’ Islamist killers are ‘victims’ of vast Orientalist/Zionist Conspiracy. The Nazis, while trumpeting their snide triumphalism out of one side of their mouths; sustained a constant whine about how oppressed, downtrodden, ‘encircled’ etc. their sacred homeland was.
Majid Nawaz had a recent note up about the ‘offendedness’ and victim-playing of the far-Right and the way the ‘regressive’ left tends to fall for it.
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It’s a challenge they tackle with gusto. Shaving down expenses with couponing, hunting the best deals with an app on their phones, or simply finding creative ways to reuse a cardboard box, gives them a thrill. For others, budgeting conjures up images of living in tents, foraging for nuts and berries in the woods, and sewing together everyone’s old t-shirts to make a blanket for grandma.
To each their own! But budgeting doesn’t have to be faced like a wilderness survival reality TV competition. Sure, there might be some sacrifice and compromise involved when you first implement your budget (giving up that daily $6 latte might feel like roughing it at first), but rest assured there’s a happy middle to most things, and a way that won’t make you hate adhering to your financial goals.
Simplifying the budgeting process can help ease the transition. Check out the following suggestions to make living on a budget something you can stick to – instead of making a shelter out of sticks.
Use that smartphone. Your parents may have used a system of labeled envelopes to budget for various upcoming expenses. Debit cards have largely replaced cash these days, and all those labeled envelopes were fiddly anyway. Your best budgeting tool is probably in your pocket, your purse, or wherever your smartphone is at the moment.
Budgeting apps can connect to your bank account and keep track of incoming and outgoing cash flow, making it simple to categorize current expenses and create a solid budget. A quick analysis of the data and charts from the app can give you important clues about your spending behavior. Maybe you’ll discover that you spent $100 last week for on-demand movies. $5 here and $10 there can add up quickly. Smartphone apps can help you see (in vivid color) how your money could be evaporating in ways you might not feel on a day-to-day basis.
Some apps give you the ability to set a budget for certain categories of spending (like on-demand movies), and you can keep track of how you’re doing in relation to your defined budget. Some apps even provide alerts to help keep you aware of your spending. And if you’re feeling nostalgic, there are even apps that mimic the envelope systems of old, but with a digital spin.
Plan for unexpected expenses. Even with modern versions of budgeting, one of the biggest risks for losing your momentum is the same as it was in the days of the envelope system: unexpected expenses. Sometimes an unexpected event – like car trouble, an urgent home repair, or medical emergency – can cost more than we expected. A lot more.
A good strategy to help protect your budget from an unexpected expense is an Emergency Fund. It may take a while to build your Emergency Fund, but it will be worth it if the tire blows out, the roof starts leaking, or you throw your back out trying to fix either of those things against your doctor’s orders.
The size of your Emergency Fund will depend on your unique situation, but a goal of at least $1,000 to 3 months of your income is recommended. Three months of income may sound like a lot, but if you experience a sudden loss of income, you’d have at least three full months of breathing room to get back on track.
Go with the flow. As you work with your new budget, you may find that you miss the mark on occasion. Some months you’ll spend more. Some months you’ll spend less. That’s normal. Over time, you’ll have an average for each expense category or expense item that will reveal where you can do better – but also where you may have been more frugal than needed.
With these suggestions in mind, there is no time like the present to get started! Make that new budget, then buy yourself an ice cream or turn on the air conditioning. Once you know where you stand, where you need to tighten up on spending, and where you can let loose a little, budgeting might not seem like a punishment. In fact, you might find that it’s a useful, much-needed strategy that you CAN stick to – all part of the greater journey to your financial independence.
3 Ways to Shift from Indulgence to Independence
October 20, 2021
Retirement
Saving
On Monday mornings, we’re all faced with a difficult choice.
Get up a few minutes early to brew your own coffee, or sleep a little later and then whip through a drive-thru for your morning pick-me-up?
When that caffeine hits your bloodstream, how you got the coffee may not matter too much. But the next time you go through a drive thru for that cup o’ joe, picture your financial strategy shouting and waving its metaphorical arms to get your attention.
Why? Each and every time you indulge in a “luxury” that has a less expensive alternative, you’re potentially delaying your financial independence. Delay it too long and you might find yourself working when you should be enjoying a comfortable retirement. Sound dramatic? Alarmist? Apocalyptic? But that’s how it happens – one $5 peppermint mocha at a time. This isn’t to say that you can’t enjoy an indulgence every once in a while. You gotta “treat yourself” sometimes, right? Just be sure that you’re sticking with your overall, long-term strategy. Your future self will thank you!
Here are 3 ways to shift from indulgence to independence:
1. Make coffee at home. Reducing your expenses can start as simply as making your morning coffee at home. And you might not even have to get up earlier to do it. Why not invest in a coffee pot with a delay brewing function? It’ll start brewing at the time you preset, and what’s a better alarm clock than the scent of freshly-brewed coffee wafting from the kitchen? Or from your bedside table… (This is a judgment-free zone here – do what you need to do to get up on time in the morning.)
Get started: A quick Google search will yield numerous lists of copycat specialty drinks that you can make at home.
2. Workout at home. A couple of questions to ask yourself:
Will an expensive gym membership fit into your monthly budget?
How often have you gone to the gym in the last few months?
If your answers are somewhere between “No” and “I’d rather not say,” then maybe it’s time to ditch the membership in favor of working out at home. Or perhaps you’re a certified gym rat who faithfully wrings every dollar out of your gym membership each month. Then ask yourself if you really need all the bells and whistles that an expensive gym might offer. Elliptical, dumbbells, and machines with clearly printed how-tos? Yes, of course. But a hot tub, sauna, and an out-of-pocket juice bar? Maybe not. If you can get in a solid workout without a few of those pricey extras, your body and your wallet will thank you.
Get started: Instead of a using a treadmill inside the gym, take a walk or jog around your local park each day – it’s free! If you prefer to work out at a gym, look into month-to-month membership options instead of paying a hefty price for a year-long membership up front.
3. Ditch cable and use a video streaming service instead. Cable may give you access to more channels and more shows than ever before, but let’s be honest. Who has time to watch 80 hours of the greatest moments in sports every week? Asking yourself if you could cut the cable and wait a little longer for your favorite shows to become available on a streaming service might not be a bad idea. Plus, who doesn’t love using a 3-day weekend to binge-watch an entire series every now and then? There’s also the bonus of how easy it is to cancel/reactivate a streaming service. With cable, you may be locked into a multi-year contract, installation can be a hassle (and they may add an extra installation fee), and you can forget about knowing when the cable guy is actually going to show up.
Get started: Plenty of streaming services offer free trial periods. Go ahead and give them a try, but be careful: You may have to enter your credit card number to access the free trial. Don’t forget to cancel before your trial is over, or you will be charged.
Taking time to address the luxuries you can live without (or enjoy less often) has the potential to make a huge impact on your journey to financial independence. Cutting back here and investing in yourself there – it all adds up.
In what areas do you think you can start indulging less?
October 18, 2021
Retirement
Saving
A teacher walked into her classroom with a clear jar, a bag of rocks, a bucket of sand, and a glass of water. She placed all the large rocks carefully into the jar.
“Who thinks this jar is full?” she asked. Almost half of her students raised their hands. Next, she began to pour sand from the bucket into the jar full of large rocks emptying the entire bucket into the jar.
“Who thinks this jar is full now?” she asked again. Almost all of her students now had their hands up. To her student’s surprise, she emptied the glass of water into the seemingly full jar of rocks and sand.
“What do you think I’m trying to show you?” She inquired.
One eager student answered: “That things may appear full, but there is always room left to put more stuff in.”
The teacher smiled and shook her head.
“Good try, but the point of this illustration is that if I didn’t put in the large rocks first, I would not be able to fit them in afterwards.”
This concept can be applied to the idea of a constant struggle between priorities that are urgent versus those that are important. When you have limited resources, priorities must be in place since there isn’t enough to go around. Take your money, for example. Unless you have an unlimited amount of funds (we’re still trying to find that source), you can’t have an unlimited amount of important financial goals.
Back to the teacher’s illustration. Let’s say the big rocks are your important goals. Things like buying a home, helping your children pay for college, retirement at 60, etc. They’re all important –but not urgent. These things may happen 10, 20, or 30 years from now.
Urgent things are the sand and water. A monthly payment like your mortgage payment or your monthly utility and internet bills. The urgent things must be paid and paid on time. If you don’t pay your mortgage on time… Well, you might end up retiring homeless.
Even though these monthly obligations might be in mind more often than your retirement or your toddler’s freshman year in college, if all you focus on are urgent things, then the important goals fall by the wayside. And in some cases, they stay there long after they can realistically be rescued. Saving up for a down payment for a home, funding a college education, or having enough to retire on is nearly impossible to come up with overnight (still looking for that source of unlimited funds!). In most cases, it takes time and discipline to save up and plan well to achieve these important goals.
What are the big rocks in your life? If you’ve never considered them, spend some time thinking about it. When you have a few in mind, place them in the priority queue of your life. Otherwise, if those important goals are ignored for too long, they might become one of the urgent goals - and perhaps ultimately unrealized if they weren’t put in your plan early on.
October 13, 2021
Saving
If you come into some extra money – a year-end bonus at work, an inheritance from your aunt, or you finally sold your rare coin collection for a tidy sum – you might not be quite sure what to do with the extra cash.
On one hand you may have some debt you’d like to knock out, or you might feel like you should divert the money into your emergency savings or retirement fund.
They’re both solid choices, but which is better? That depends largely on your interest rates.
High Interest Rate. Take a look at your debt and see what your highest interest rate(s) are. If you’re leaning towards saving the bonus you’ve received, keep in mind that high borrowing costs may rapidly erode any savings benefits, and it might even negate those benefits entirely if you’re forced to dip into your savings in the future to pay off high interest. The higher the interest rate, the more important it is to pay off that debt earlier – otherwise you’re simply throwing money at the creditor.
Low Interest Rate. On the other hand, sometimes interest rates are low enough to warrant building up an emergency savings fund instead of paying down existing debt. An example is if you have a long-term, fixed-rate loan, such as a mortgage. The idea is that money borrowed for emergencies, rather than non-emergencies, will be expensive, because emergency borrowing may have no collateral and probably very high interest rates (like payday loans or credit cards). So it might be better to divert your new-found funds to a savings account, even if you aren’t reducing your interest burden, because the alternative during an emergency might mean paying 20%+ rather than 0% on your own money (or 3-5% if you consider the interest you pay on the current loan).
Raw Dollar Amounts. Relatively large loans might have low interest rates, but the actual total interest amount you’ll pay over time might be quite a sum. In that case, it might be better to gradually divert some of your bonus money to an emergency account while simultaneously starting to pay down debt to reduce your interest. A good rule of thumb is that if debt repayments comprise a big percentage of your income, pay down the debt, even if the interest rate is low.
The Best for You. While it’s always important to reduce debt as fast as possible to help achieve financial independence, it’s also important to have some money set aside for use in emergencies.
If you do receive an unexpected windfall, it will be worth it to take a little time to think about a strategy for how it can best be used for the maximum long term benefit for you and your family.
October 13, 2021
For many people, when purchasing items with a debit card or credit card, the only difference for them may boil down to simply entering a PIN code or scribbling a signature.
But what really is the difference? The answer may be a little complicated, largely due to misnomers and a blending of terms used by the public. Read on to see what the difference actually is.
A clarification of terms. The words credit, debit, and cash seem to be used so loosely by the general public that many people seem confused by what the difference is between them. But in accounting and finance, they have very specific meanings. For our purposes, cash is money that you can spend immediately. It can be cold hard currency of course – bills and coins which you might have in your hand or in your wallet – or cash can refer to the balance in your checking account. This is money that you own, and you can withdraw all of it right now, electronically or physically.
Credit is basically someone’s willingness to accept an IOU from you. Here we will use it as a noun. Buying on credit means the seller trusts the buyer to hand over cash – money which is spendable right now – in the future. Debit, on the other hand, is a verb, and it means to deduct an amount from a cash balance immediately (often a bank account balance). Of course, credit can also be a verb (meaning to add to a cash balance immediately). This mixing of verbs and nouns can make the distinction of the terms in everyday use difficult.
Cash is money you can spend right now, electronically or physically. Credit is an agreement to pay cash later. Debit is a verb that means to subtract cash from a balance right away.
When money is due. The major difference between credit and debit cards is the time when cash must be paid. Credit cards, standing in for a promise to pay cash later, allow one to purchase things even if said person has no cash immediately available. For example, if you need to buy some clothes for a new job, you might only have enough cash on hand to purchase one outfit. You may not receive any more cash until you get your first paycheck in two weeks. But you probably wouldn’t want to wear the same outfit every day for two weeks. What can you do?
This is when credit comes in handy: you buy all the outfits you need now, while making a promise to pay the credit card company back in the future. You receive your outfits immediately even though you don’t technically have enough cash yet. You need to complete some work before you receive the money, but the credit card company accepts your IOU in place of cash for the time being.
On the other hand, if you use a debit card to pay for the clothes, the cash will be deducted immediately from your bank account. Remember, the balance of your bank account is cash in financial terms because it is spendable right now. When you enter your PIN code, the bank checks that you have enough money to make the purchase immediately and, if you do, the bank authorizes the transaction. If you need new shoes for your job but don’t have enough money in your bank account, you won’t be able to use a debit card.
Interest rates for using credit cards. Why would anyone ever want to use debit if they could use credit? One reason is budgeting and discipline. However, a stronger reason can be interest: promising to pay later may come at a price, and that price is called interest. Credit card companies do not make these short term loans out of the goodness of their hearts. They do it for profit. If you borrow money for a little while – i.e., you take money and promise to pay it back later – you will have to compensate the bank, seller, or credit card company for that ability. Thus we potentially pay interest with credit cards but not with debit cards.
Why don’t we pay interest on debit cards? Well, because the money is already yours, of course.
October 6, 2021
Credit Cards
Some could say “never!” but there might be situations in which using a credit card may be the option you want to go with.
Many families use credit with good intentions – and then life happens – surprise expenses or a change in income leave them struggling to get ahead of growing debt. To be fair, there may be times to use credit and times to avoid using credit.
Purchasing big-ticket items. A big-screen TV or a laptop purchased with a credit card may have additional warranty protection through your credit card company. Features and promotions vary by card, however, so be sure to know the details before you buy. If your credit card offers reward points or airline miles, big-ticket items may be a faster way to earn points than making small purchases over time. Just be sure to have a plan to pay off the balance.
Travel and car rental. For many families, these two items go hand in hand. Credit cards sometimes offer additional insurance protection for your luggage or for the trip itself. Your credit card company may offer some additional protection for car rentals. You might score some extra airline miles or reward points in this category as well because the numbers can add up quickly.
Online shopping. Credit card and debit card numbers are being stolen all the time. Online merchants can have a breach and not even be aware that your credit card info is out in the wild. The advantage of using a credit card as opposed to a debit card is time. You’ll have more time to dispute charges that aren’t yours. If your debit card gets into the wrong hands, someone might be quickly spending your mortgage money, food and gas money, or college tuition for your kids. Credit cards may be a better choice to use online because the effects of fraud don’t have an immediate impact on your bank balance.
Legitimate emergencies. Life happens and sometimes we don’t have enough readily available cash to pay for emergencies. Life’s emergencies can range from broken appliances to broken cars to broken bones and in these cases, you may not have any other viable options for payment.
Using credit isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, if you plan carefully, you may reap several types of benefits from using credit cards and still avoid paying interest. You’ll have to pay off the balance right away to avoid finance charges, though. So, always think twice before you charge once.
Some credit cards offer consumer benefits, like extended warranties, extra insurance, or even rewards. There are some situations in which using a credit card may come in handy.
October 4, 2021
Do you have a hobby that you really love? Could you use a little extra cash?
What if you could get paid for doing something that you already enjoy doing? We’re all good at something. Many people have turned their hobbies into a side business as a way to earn extra money. For nearly everyone, there’s a topic they know well or a skill they have that many other people don’t have. That niche can spell opportunity – and a chance to turn something you enjoy doing anyway into a money-maker.
Depending on the type of hobby you want to monetize, your startup expenses may be quite low. For writing, coding, or graphic design, you might only need a laptop or tablet – something you may already have. If your hobby is fixing up old cars, however, you might need a place to do the work – possibly adding to the expense. For that scenario, you could check out the possibility of putting in a couple of Saturdays per month at a local shop to help save on rent and insurance costs.
With a little ingenuity, you might be able to earn $10 to $40 (or maybe more) per hour doing work you enjoy. Artists can earn extra money by selling arts and crafts items through virtual stores on specialized websites. Freelance writers, coders, designers, and even teachers can find work as well on similar type websites that bring clients and service providers together. If you have a knack for knowing what’s valuable, you may be able to turn garage sale and estate sale buys into a rewarding online business on any popular consumer-to-consumer and/or business-to-consumer sales website. (Hint: If this is something you’d like to try, start out small. Concentrate on one type of item that might be near and dear to you, like brass musical instruments, or antique mason jars.)
The old saying that asserts “knowledge is power” applies here as well. Let’s say your childhood fascination with dinosaurs never quite went extinct. Maybe there’s a successful educational blog or a YouTube channel in your future. Technology has given us the power to reach a larger audience than ever before and to bring our knowledge to anyone who wants to learn more. Sharing what you know can be monetized in many ways and – if you love doing it – you might not feel like you’re working at all!
Do your research and understand any legal or insurance requirements that may apply to the area you want to get into, but don’t let a little legwork bar the way to your next great endeavor – even if it just starts as a side gig.
Should You Buy Or Lease Your Next Vehicle?
September 29, 2021
Behind housing costs, transportation costs are often one of the top expenses in most households.
Auto leasing has been popular for several decades, but many people still aren’t sure about the sensibility of leasing vs. buying a car, how the math works, and which is really the better value.
Should you lease a car? In many cases, you can lease a car for less than the monthly payment for financing the exact same car. This is because with leasing, you never build any equity in the vehicle. Essentially, you are renting the vehicle for a predetermined number of miles per year with a promise that you’ll take good care of it and won’t let your kids spill ice cream on the seats. (After all, it’s not really your car.)
At the end of the lease – most often 2 or 3 years – you’ll have the option to buy the car. At this point, in many cases you would be able to find a comparable car for a few thousand less than the residual value on the car you leased. After the lease has expired, most people choose to lease another newer car, rather than buy the car they leased.
If you don’t drive many miles, there may be some advantages to leasing over buying, particularly if you prefer to drive something newer or if you need a late-model car for business reasons. As a bonus, for short-term or standard leases, the car is usually under warranty for the duration of the lease and maintenance costs are typically only for minor service items.
Should you buy a car? If you’re like most people, when you buy a car, you’ll probably need to finance it rather than plunk down a lump sum in cash. Rates are relatively low, but you can still expect to pay a few thousand dollars in interest costs over the course of the loan. Longer loans have higher rates and more expensive vehicles can make the interest costs add up quickly. Still, at the end of the loan, you own the car.
Older cars usually have higher maintenance costs, but it may be less expensive to keep a car with under 150,000 miles and pay for any repairs, rather than make payments on a new car. Cars are also running reliably much longer now. Let’s say your car runs for about 2 years. If you had a 5-year loan, you could be driving for 7 years (or more) without having to make a car payment.
So a big part of the savings in buying a car vs. leasing can occur if you keep the car for several years after it’s paid off. Cars depreciate most rapidly during the first 5 years of ownership, meaning you could take a big hit on the trade-in value during that time. Keeping the car for a bit longer puts you into a period where the car is depreciating less rapidly and you can benefit financially from not having a car payment. But if you think you might be tempted to trade the car in after 5 years (and you typically drive under 15,000 miles per year), you may want to take a closer look at leasing.
Getting behind the wheel It’s really up to your personal preference whether you buy or lease. If you like to rotate your vehicles so you can enjoy a new car every few years and not have to worry so much about maintenance, then leasing may be a better option. However, if you like the idea of not having to make a car payment for a good portion of the life of your car, then buying may be the right choice.
Either way, before you take the keys and drive off the lot, make sure to ask your dealer any questions you have, so you can fully understand all the terms and any underlying costs for your situation.
Which Debt Should You Pay Off First?
September 27, 2021
Credit Cards
Nearly every type of debt can interfere with your financial goals, making you feel like a hamster on a wheel – constantly running but never actually getting anywhere.
If you’ve been trying to dig yourself out of a debt hole, it’s time to take a break and look at the bigger picture.
Did you know there are often advantages to paying off certain types of debt before other types? What the simple list below doesn’t include is the average interest rates or any tax benefits to a given type of debt, which can change your priorities. Let’s check them out!
Credit Cards. For most households, credit card debt is the place to start – stop spending on credit and start making extra payments whenever possible. Think of it as an investment in your future!
Auto Loans. Interest rates for auto loans are usually much lower than credit card debt, often under 5% on newer loans. Interest rates aren’t the only consideration for auto loans though. New cars depreciate nearly 20% in the first year. In years 2 and 3, you can expect the value to drop another 15% each year. The moral of the story is that cars are a terrible investment but offer great utility. There’s also no tax benefit for auto loan interest. Eliminating debt as fast as possible on a rapidly depreciating asset is a sound decision.
Student Loans. Like auto loans, student loans are usually in the range of 5% to 10% interest. While interest rates are similar to car loans, student loan interest is often tax deductible, which can lower your effective rate. Auto loans can usually be paid off faster than student loan debt, allowing more cash flow to apply to student debt, investment accounts, or other needs.
Mortgage Debt. In most cases, mortgage debt is the last type of debt to pay down. Mortgage rates are usually lower than the interest rates for credit card debt, auto loans, or student loans, and mortgage interest may be tax deductible if structured properly. If mortgage debt keeps you awake at night, paying off other types of debt first will give you greater cash flow each month so you can begin paying down your mortgage.
When you’ve paid off your other debt and are ready to start tackling your mortgage, try paying bi-monthly (every two weeks). This simple strategy has the effect of adding one extra mortgage payment each year, reducing a 30-year loan term by several years. Because the payments are spread out instead of making one (large) 13th payment, it’s likely you won’t even notice the extra expense.
September 22, 2021
Saving
Budgeting
Nearly one quarter of Americans and almost half of Canadians have no emergency savings, according to a recent report. (1&2)
Without an emergency fund, you can imagine that an unexpected expense could send your budget into a tailspin. That’s why building an emergency fund is so important. You CAN do this!
4 tips to building your emergency fund
Where to keep your emergency fund. Keeping money in the cookie jar might not be the best plan. Mattresses don’t really work so well either. But you also don’t want your emergency fund “co-mingled” with the money in your normal checking or savings account. The goal is to keep your emergency fund separate, clearly defined, and easily accessible. Setting up a designated, high-yield savings account is a good option that can provide quick access to your money while keeping it separate from your main bank accounts.
Set a monthly goal for savings. Set a monthly goal for your emergency fund savings, but also make sure you keep your savings goal realistic. If you choose an overly ambitious goal, you may be less likely to reach that goal consistently, which might make the process of building your emergency fund a frustrating experience. (Your emergency fund is supposed to help reduce stress, not increase it!) It’s okay to start by putting aside a small amount until you have a better understanding of how much you can really “afford” to save each month. Also, once you have your high-yield savings account set up, you can automatically transfer funds to your savings account every time you get paid. One less thing to worry about!
Spare change can add up quickly. The convenience of debit and credit cards means that we use less cash these days – but if and when you do pay with cash, take the change and put it aside. When you have enough change to be meaningful, maybe $20 to $30, deposit that into your emergency fund. Look into ways of automating your savings to make putting away money seamless and hassle free!
Get to know your budget. Making and keeping a budget may not always be the most enjoyable pastime. But once you get it set up and stick to it for a few months, you’ll get some insight into where your money is going, and how better to keep a handle on it! Hopefully that will motivate you to keep going, and keep working towards your larger goals. When you first get started, dig out your bank statements and write down recurring expenses, or types of expenses that occur frequently. Odds are pretty good that you’ll find some expenses that aren’t strictly necessary. Look for ways to moderate your spending on frills without taking all the fun out of life. By moderating your expenses and eliminating the truly wasteful indulgences, you’ll probably find money to spare each month and you’ll be well on your way to building your emergency fund.
(1) Maurie Backman, “Nearly 50% of Americans Don’t Have Enough Emergency Savings to Get Through the COVID-19 Crisis”, the Motley Fool, March 27, 2020.
(2) Steve Randall, “Almost half of Canadians have no emergency fund”, Which Mortgage, January 9, 2019.
What Does “Pay Yourself First” Mean?
September 20, 2021
Budgeting
Retirement
Bills, bills, mortgage payment, another bill, maybe some coupons for things you never buy, and of course, more bills.
There seems to be an endless stream of envelopes from companies all demanding payment for their products and services. It feels like you have a choice of what you want to do with your money ONLY after all the bills have been paid – if there’s anything left over, that is.
More times than not it might seem like there’s more ‘month’ than ‘dollar.’ Not to rub salt in the wound, but may I ask how much you’re saving each month? $100? $50? Nothing? You may have made a plan and come up with a rock-solid budget in the past, but let’s get real. One month’s expenditures can be very different than another’s. Birthdays, holidays, last-minute things the kids need for school, a spontaneous weekend getaway, replacing that 12-year-old dishwasher that doesn’t sound exactly right, etc., can make saving a fixed amount each month a challenge. Some months you may actually be able to save something, and some months you can’t. The result is that setting funds aside each month becomes an uncertainty.
Although this situation might appear at first benign (i.e. it’s just the way things are), the impact of this uncertainty can have far-reaching negative consequences.
Here’s why: If you don’t know how much you can save each month, then you don’t know how much you can save each year. If you don’t know how much you can save each year, then you don’t know how much you’ll have put away 2, 5, 10, or 20 years from now. Will you have enough saved for retirement?
If you have a goal in mind like buying a home in 10 years or retiring at 65, then you also need a realistic plan that will help you get there.<br> Truth is, most of us don’t have a wealthy relative who might unexpectedly leave us an inheritance we never knew existed!
But you might be surprised by much you can save if you put your mind to it. And you might want to do that… but how do you do that?
The secret is to “pay yourself first.” The first “bill” you pay each month is to yourself. Shifting your focus each month to a “pay yourself first” mentality is subtle, but it can potentially be life changing. Let’s say for example you make $3,000 per month after taxes. You would put aside $300 (10%) right off the bat, leaving you $2,700 for the rest of your bills. This tactic makes saving $300 per month a certainty. The answer to how much you would be saving each month would always be: “At least $300.” If you stash this in an interest-bearing account, imagine how high this can grow over time if you continue to contribute that $300.
That’s exciting! But at this point you might be thinking, “I can’t afford to save 10% of my income every month because the leftovers aren’t enough for me to live my lifestyle.” If that’s the case, rather than reducing the amount you save, it might be worthwhile to consider if it’s the lifestyle you can’t afford.
Ultimately, paying yourself first means you’re making your future financial goals a priority, and that’s a bill worth paying.
September 15, 2021
Credit Cards
Debit cards are convenient.
Just swipe and go. Even more so for their mobile phone equivalents. We like fast, we like easy, and we like a good sale. But are we actually spending more by not using cash like we did in the good old days?
When using plastic, the reality of the expense doesn’t sink in until the statement arrives. And even then it may not carry the same weight. After all, you only need to make the minimum payment, right? With cash, we’re more cautious – and that’s not a bad thing.
Try an experiment for a week: pay only with cash. When you pay with cash, the expense feels real – even when it might be relatively small. Hopefully, you’ll get a sense that you’re parting with something of value in exchange for something else. You might start to ask yourself things like “Do I need this new comforter set that’s on sale – a really good sale – or, do I just want this new comforter set because it’s really cute (and it’s on sale)?” You might find yourself paying more attention to how much things cost when making purchases, and weighing that against your budget.
If you find that you have money left over at the end of the week (and you probably will because who likes to see nothing when they open their wallet), put the cash aside in an envelope and give it a label. You can call it anything you want, like “Movie Night,” for example.
As the weeks go on, you’re likely to amass a respectable amount of cash in your “rewards” fund. You might even be dreaming about what to do with that money now. You can buy something special. You can save it. The choice is yours. Well done on saving your hard-earned cash.
September 13, 2021
Budgeting
Saving
Maybe you just got a bonus at work, or a tax refund, or won that scratch-off lottery ticket.
Hold up. Don’t spend it all just yet. There are some great ways you can put that windfall to work for you before it disappears during a spontaneous shopping spree.
1. Pay off those credit cards. This may not seem like quite as much fun as the Paris vacation you were daydreaming about – but paying down debt is like finding money every single month. Every $100 you pay in interest equals about $130 you’d have to earn when you consider taxes. Paying down debt is the fastest way to give yourself a monthly raise if you come into some unexpected cash.
2. Save it. Experts recommend that you have enough savings to cover at least 3 to 6 months of expenses. This is the perfect opportunity to break away from the statistics and get prepared. Consider a high-yield checking account that allows easy access to your savings.
3. Put it in the college fund. If you have kids, this is a great time to contribute to the college fund or to start one if you haven’t already. Tuition can range from around $10,000 for in-state public schools to nearly $35,000 for private schools (1). And that’s not counting books and boarding! It’s never too early to give your kids a head start!
4. Invest in yourself. This might be the perfect chance to finish off those last few credits for a degree or to earn that certification you’ve been wanting but couldn’t justify spending money to complete. If you choose carefully, the right degree or certification can open doors in your career, potentially enhancing your earning power and helping you break out of the holding pattern.
5. Take a vacation. Maybe it’s a trip to Paris or maybe it’s someplace else you’ve always wanted to go. If all the above are in good shape, go ahead and treat yourself. You deserve it!
September 8, 2021
Budgeting
Saving
It’s no secret that life is full of surprises. Surprises that can cost money.
Sometimes, a lot of money. They have the potential to throw a monkey wrench into your savings strategy, especially if you have to resort to using credit to get through an emergency. In many households, a budget covers everyday spending, including clothes, eating out, groceries, utilities, electronics, online games, and a myriad of odds and ends we need.
Sometimes, though, there may be something on the horizon that you want to purchase (like that all-inclusive trip to Cancun for your second honeymoon), or something you may need to purchase (like that 10-years-overdue bathroom remodel).
How do you get there if you have a budget for the everyday things you need, you’re setting aside money in your emergency fund, and you’re saving for retirement?
Make a goal. The way to get there is to make a plan. Let’s say you’ve got a teenager who’s going to be driving soon. Maybe you’d like to purchase a new (to him) car for his 16th birthday. You’ve done the math and decided you can put $3,000 towards the best vehicle you can find for the price (at least it will get him to his job and around town, right?). You have 1 year to save but the planning starts now.
There are 52 weeks in a year, which makes the math simple. As an estimate, you’ll need to put aside about $60 per week. (The actual number is $57.69 – $3,000 divided by 52). If you get paid weekly, put this amount aside before you buy that $6 latte or spend the $10 for extra lives in that new phone game. The last thing you want to do is create debt with small things piling up, while you’re trying to save for something bigger.
Make your savings goal realistic. You might surprise yourself by how much you can save when you have a goal in mind. Saving isn’t a magic trick, however, it’s based on discipline and math. There may be goals that seem out of reach – at least in the short-term – so you may have to adjust your goal. Let’s say you decide you want to spend a little more on the car, maybe $4,000, since your son has been working hard and making good grades. You’ve crunched the numbers but all you can really spare is the original $60 per week. You’d need to find only another $17 per week to make the more expensive car happen. If you don’t want to add to your debt, you might need to put that purchase off unless you can find a way to raise more money, like having a garage sale or picking up some overtime hours.
Hide the money from yourself. It might sound silly but it works. Money “saved” in your regular savings or checking account may be in harm’s way. Unless you’re extremely careful, it’s almost guaranteed to disappear – but not like what happens in a magic show, where the magician can always bring the volunteer back. Instead, find a safe place for your savings – a place where it can’t be spent “accidentally”, whether it’s a cookie jar or a special savings account you open specifically to fund your goal.
Pay yourself first. When you get paid, fund your savings account set up for your goal purchase first. After you’ve put this money aside, go ahead and pay some bills and buy yourself that latte if you really want to, although you may have to get by with a small rather than an extra large.
Saving up instead of piling on more credit card debt may be a much less costly way (by avoiding credit card interest) to enjoy the things you want, even if it means you’ll have to wait a bit.
September 6, 2021
Plenty of people move back in with their parents.
Data found that 37% of Californians and close to 1.9 million people in Canada between 18 and 64 live with their parents (1 & 2). That might not sound ideal, but is it really that bad? Here are some pros and cons to consider before deciding to move back home.
Pros. Living with your parents isn’t necessarily the end of the world. For starters, it might be cheaper than renting an apartment or buying a house, depending on the deal your parents offer you. Negotiating rent with your mom is typically easier than wrangling with a landlord! On that note, at home you’ll be surrounded by people who love you. That can be a serious boost to your mental health and give you some footing for your next move. And you can’t forget that free food is awesome. (If that’s part of the deal!)
Cons. But moving back in might not necessarily be all rainbows and sunshine. It can be incredibly demoralizing for many people. We tend to estimate our self-worth and how much we’ve accomplished by our independence from our parents. It’s easy to see living with our parents as a step back. Plus, it can encourage laziness. Not having to hustle for food and rent can remove a sense of urgency from your work. Nothing motivates you quite like the imminent threat of bankruptcy!
If you have to move back in with your parents, do it with a plan. Maybe you give yourself six months at home to get your business off the ground. Your goal might be more long-term like caring for a parent. Just remember to take it in stride and don’t let it derail your life!
(2) Statistics Canada, “Family Matters: Adults living with their parents.” The Daily, February 15, 2019.
So You've Graduated... Now What?
September 1, 2021
Graduating from college is a big deal.
It represents a transition from student to adult for millions of people. But leaving university and joining the workforce can be intimidating. Looking for a job, paying bills, commuting, and living independently are often uncharted territory for recent grads.
Here are a few tips for fresh graduates trying to get on their feet financially.
Figure out what you want. It’s one thing to leave college with an idea of what career you want to pursue. It’s something else entirely to ask yourself what kind of life you want. It’s one of those big issues that can be difficult even to wrap your head around!
However, it’s something that’s important to grapple with. It will help you answer questions like “What kind of lifestyle do I want to live” and “how much will it cost to do the things I want?” You might even find that you don’t really need some of the things that you thought were necessities, and that happiness comes from places you might not have expected.
Come up with a budget. Let’s say you’ve got a ballpark idea of your financial and lifestyle goals. It’s time to come up with a strategy. There are plenty of resources on starting a budget on this blog and the internet on the whole, but the barebones of budgeting are pretty simple. First, figure out how much you make, how much you have to spend, how much you actually spend, then subtract your total spending from how much you make. Get a positive number? Awesome! Use that leftover cash to start saving for retirement (it’s never too early!) or build up an emergency fund. Negative number? Look for places in your unnecessary spending to cut back and maybe consider a side hustle to make more money.
Looking at your spending habits can be difficult. But owning up to mistakes you might be making and coming up with a solid strategy can be far easier than the agony that spending blindly may bring. That’s why starting a budget is a post-graduation must!
Meet with a financial professional. Find a qualified and licensed financial professional and schedule an appointment. Don’t let the idea of meeting with a professional intimidate you. Afterall, you trust your health, car, and legal representation to properly trained experts. Why wouldn’t you do the same with your financial future?
Being scared of starting a new chapter of life is natural. There are a lot of new experiences and unknowns to deal with that come along with leaving the familiarity of college. But the best way to overcome fear is to face it head on. These tips are a great way to start taking control of your future!
August 30, 2021
Should parents give their children an allowance?
It’s a surprisingly difficult question to answer. Teaching your kids how to handle money is important. But how you go about giving them cash can set precedents that last a lifetime. Here are a few different takes on giving your kids money.
Not giving your kids money There’s a lot to not love about this system at a glance, especially if you’re the kid. It seems like a way to simultaneously prevent your children from having fun and learn nothing about handling money. But it has some silver linings. Not paying your kids to do chores can be a way to teach them about the value of work without tying it to a monetary reward. That’s an important life lesson that can be applied to volunteer work and responsibilities with their future family. You also may be on a tight budget and handing out an allowance is just not part of your financial strategy right now.
Giving your kids an allowance (no work required) This is a system where you give your kids a set amount of money each week or month. This is a straightforward way to get your kids some cash that they can spend, save, and use to learn about money.
But just giving your kids an allowance without requiring something in return, like doing chores, has some potential drawbacks. Most people will eventually have to get a job so they can earn money. Giving cash to your kids without tying it in some way to work may create a sense of entitlement that simply isn’t realistic.
Paying your kids commission In this system, you pay your kids as they complete tasks. You would set up a job posting with different payments for different chores. Pay your kids when they’ve completed the work. If they get the job done quickly with a good attitude and some extra flourish? Give them a raise! It’s a great way of rewarding excellence and teaching children the monetary value of their time and hard work.
But this system also has flaws. Some of the most rewarding work we do can be for family or friends, or to serve our communities—with no reward other than appreciation and pride in a job well done. Giving the impression that one should only put in hard work or help out with the family for cash isn’t something every parent is comfortable with.
Fortunately, there are many ways to combine each of these systems. You could have non-paying chores that are duties simply because the kids are members of the family and then extra paid jobs. Or maybe offer a base allowance to teach your kids about saving, giving, and spending, and then paid chores added on. These systems can evolve over time as your kids grow. Let the needs of your family and what you want to instill in your children guide you.
Should I Buy Or Rent?
August 23, 2021
House Hunting
Home ownership is a big part of the “American Dream”.
But sometimes it might seem more convenient (or economical) to rent rather than buy. Here are two things to consider if you’re looking to buy a house instead of renting.
How long will you live in the house? When you own a home, the hope is generally that it will increase in value and that you would be able to sell it for more than you bought it. The best way to do that is to plan to stay in your house for the long haul. So if you’re looking to remain in an area for a while and put down roots, buying a house is a strong consideration.
But let’s face it, not everyone is in that position. Maybe you’re young and hopping from opportunity to opportunity. Perhaps your job requires you to travel frequently or change locations. You might just prefer discovering new, exciting places and not being tied down. Unless you plan on renting out your property, it may not make sense for you to buy. Renting might give you more flexibility to move about as you please!
Can you afford to buy a house? So you want to settle down in a city or a certain neighborhood for the foreseeable future. Does that automatically mean you should buy a house?
Well, maybe not.
You simply may not be able to afford a house right now. Do you have significant debt in student loans or a car? Have you been able to save up enough for closing costs and a down payment? Mortgages might be cheaper than rent at certain times, but that might flip-flop before too long. Are you ready to maintain your house or pay for unexpected damages? These are all questions to ask before you decide to become a homeowner.
Still weighing your homeownership options? Let’s talk. We can review your situation and see if now is your time to buy!
August 16, 2021
Consistency is essential for anything, and the key to consistency is habit.
Habits are behaviors that we do so frequently that they feel second nature. So your friend who’s woken up at 5:00 AM to work out for so long that it seems normal to him? He’s unlocked the power of habit to wake up, get out of bed, and make it happen.
Healthy money habits are the same way; they open up a whole new world of financial fitness! Here are a few great habits you can start today.
Begin with a Budget. Developing a budgeting habit is foundational. Consistently seeing where your money is going gives you the power to see what needs to change. Notice in your budget that fast food is hogging your paycheck? Budgeting allows you to see how it’s holding you back and figure out a solution to the problem. The knowledge a budget gives you is the key to help you make wise money decisions.
Pay Yourself First. Once you’re budgeting regularly, you can start seeing who ends up with your money at the end of the day. Is it you? Or someone else? One of the best habits you can establish is making sure you pay yourself by saving. Instead of spending first and setting aside what’s left over, put part of your money into a savings account as soon as you get your paycheck. It’s a simple shift in mindset that can make a big difference!
Automate Everything. And what easier way to pay yourself first than by automatically depositing cash in your savings account? Making as much of your saving automatic helps make saving something that you don’t even think about. It can be much easier to have healthy financial habits if everything happens seamlessly and with as little effort as possible on your part.
Healthy financial habits may not seem big. But sometimes those little victories can make a big difference over the span of several years. Why not try working a few of these habits into your routine and see if they make a difference?
August 9, 2021
A financial strategy is many things.
It’s not just a budget. In fact, a solid financial strategy is not entirely based on numbers at all. Rather, it’s a roadmap for your family’s financial future. It’s a journey on which you’ll need to consider daily needs as well as big-picture items. Having a strategy makes it possible to set aside money now for future goals, and help ensure your family is both comfortable in the present and prepared in the future.
Financial Strategy, Big Picture. A good financial strategy covers pretty much everything related to your family’s finances. In addition to a snapshot of your current income, assets, and debt, a strategy should include your savings and goals, a time frame for paying down debt, retirement savings targets, ways to cover taxes and insurance, and in all likelihood some form of end-of-life preparations. How much of your strategy is devoted to each will depend on your age, marital or family status, whether you own your home, and other factors.
Financial Preparation, Financial Independence. How do these items factor into your daily budget? Well, having a financial strategy doesn’t necessarily mean sticking to an oppressive budget. In fact, it may actually provide you with more “freedom” to spend. If you’re allocating the right amount of money each month toward both regular and retirement savings, and staying aware of how much you have to spend in any given time frame, you may find you have less daily stress over your dollars and feel better about buying the things you need (and some of the things you want).
Remember Your Goals. It can also be helpful to keep the purpose of your hard-earned money in mind. For example, a basic financial strategy may include the amount of savings you need each month to retire at a certain age, but with your family’s lifestyle and circumstances in mind. It might be a little easier to skip dinner out and cook at home instead when you know the reward may eventually be a dinner out in Paris!
Always Meet with a Financial Professional. There are many schools of thought as to the best ways to save and invest. Some financial professionals may recommend paying off all debt (except your home mortgage) before saving anything. Others recommend that clients pay off debt while simultaneously saving for retirement, devoting a certain percentage of income to each until the debt is gone and retirement savings can be increased. If you’re just getting started, meet with a qualified and licensed financial professional who can help you figure out which option is for you.
Revolution Financial Management is a financial services marketing organization that is not affiliated with World Financial Group, Inc., World Financial Group Insurance Agency, Inc., World Financial Insurance Agency, Inc., World Financial Group Insurance Agency of Hawaii, Inc., World Financial Group Insurance Agency of Massachusetts, Inc. nor WFG Insurance Agency of Puerto Rico, Inc. (collectively referred to as “WFGI”), but is utilized by certain independent contractors of WFG.
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With almost everyone homebound right now, I think we all could stand a little good news, and I think I have some. The birds are coming. Luckily for us, birds don’t watch cable news so they aren’t constantly bombarded with menacing headlines. The only things on their minds right now are finding a mate, building a nest and raising a family. They let us worry about everything else. Perhaps it’s time we shut off the hysteria for a while and spend a day or two watching the birds in our own yards because they are coming back…today.
While the rest of us are showering with bleach and renting safe deposit boxes to stash supplies of toilet paper, tiny Ruby-throated Hummingbirds have been working their way north from Central America. Arriving in the U.S. in early March, and averaging roughly twenty miles per day (like a retiree in a Winnebago), the hummers are on the move and will be arriving here this week, and I for one will be glad to see them. It’s time to get our hummingbird feeders out, or at least start looking for them. Check the basement, garage or behind the toilet paper in your safe deposit box. Amazingly, the birds will remember exactly where they saw your feeder last year, even if you don’t. And in case you have forgotten the food formula as well, it’s four parts water to one part sugar. I repeat those numbers so often I’ve made them my bank account password. Don’t tell anybody.
Here’s a question: A week or so after the hummers arrive, what bird comes next? That’s right, the Baltimore Orioles are also on the way. Those bright orange birds, which seem to be out of place in New England, will also soon be here and they’ll be hungry. Orange halves, a sugar-water feeder or a dish of grape jelly are what we can offer them. The female oriole will also be searching for something else, too: nesting material. Each spring I take short six-inch pieces of string or yarn and hang them on tree branches. Mrs. Oriole will quickly snap them up and weave them into her pouch-shaped nest. Caution: Avoid using long pieces of string (the birds can get themselves tangled in them) or plastic, especially loose strands from those blue or green tarps we all seem to have. The birds readily grab the polyester fibers, but the slippery strands don’t hold together well and the nest can fall apart at the worst possible time. Then you’ll have to deal with the birds’ lawyers, and Baltimore lawyers are tough.
Speaking of nesting: Every fall, customers tell me that they’ve discovered an old nest in one of their birdhouses. Next, they want me to tell them what bird built the nest. I look back at them and say, “Why are you asking me? It’s your birdhouse. That’s like asking me who has been sleeping in your guest bedroom.” (I would never make a good diplomat.) People say they don’t have time to stare at their birdhouses all day. Well, now we do. Staring at a birdhouse might be the most exciting thing we get to do all spring. I find it fun to watch House Wrens fly back and forth with twig after twig after twig. Tree Swallows love white feathers and will often fight over them like humans fight over rolls of toilet paper. (Okay, no more toilet paper jokes, maybe.) If any of your friends have pet chickens or ducks, ask them to save the white feathers for you. You can actually toss a feather into the air, like tossing a tennis ball to a dog, and the birds will swoop down and grab them (the feathers, not the ball or the dog).
While this is never the case in my yard, many nest boxes are filled with bluebird eggs right now and soon those same boxes will contain hungry baby birds. Young bluebirds are fed a steady diet of insect larva, crickets and grasshoppers. But the harried adults will also come to a cup filled with mealworms. They’ll take dried or live worms, but mostly live. Watching adult birds feeding their babies is quite a thrill. I’ll admit feeding bluebirds might not be as exciting as the trip you were planning to Paris this spring, but who wants to see the Mona Lisa while she is wearing a face mask?
Lots of people have trouble identifying birdcalls. When they ask for advice, I tell them to just locate the bird that’s doing the singing. That sounds like a flippant response, but it’s based on my own experiences. When I actually see the singer in action, I remember it better. People tell me they don’t have time to search for the singing bird. Once again, we do right now. With most everyone in shutdown mode, we have all kinds of time to walk around the backyard searching for the mysterious singer. FYI: the mysterious singer should not be confused with TV’s Masked Singer, which is somehow even more disturbing than those cable news headlines.
With the theaters dark, sporting events canceled and TV showing giant singing rabbits, our entertainment options are rather limited. This might be the year to learn the calls of your local birds, identify the occupants in your birdhouses and appreciate the returning birds of summer. The hummingbirds, orioles, swallows and catbirds (Whoa! I almost forgot about the catbirds) are all on their way and they are looking forward to seeing us…or at least seeing the stuff we have put out for them. Birds have minimal requirements and unsurprisingly, there is definitely one thing they don’t need… you guessed it, toilet paper. Birds are lucky.
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More answers to common and not-so-common questions about birds & birding.
"Why Don't Woodpeckers Get Headaches?"
The first collection of our "Ask the Bird Folks" articles in paperback that you can read in the bathroom.
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Reading... My Guantanamo Diary by Mahvish Rukhsana Khan. I'm only one chapter in but so far, I love it. It's about a law student who goes to Guantanamo Bay as a volunteer to interpret for Afghan prisoners being detained by the US government without habeas corpus.
Watching... Scandal Season 3 (it's getting a little weird...oh Shonda Rhymes, why do you always have to get weird?) and Orange is the New Black.
Anticipating... Getting our wedding invitations put together, they're looking great so far and I just ordered all of our envelopes and other essentials!
Wishing for... My bum knee to fix itself. Starting another round of PT tomorrow.
Loving... Summer weather. Even though it's cold and rainy in DC, this weekend was perfect and I've already started working on my tan! I may have raccoon eyes, but hey, I'll take it.
That's that!
What's on your summer reading list?
Currently...
4 comments:
Jenn May 29, 2014 at 1:59 PM
The weather is supposed to be gorgeous again this weekend so you'll have more of that to enjoy soon! Hope you stop feeling dizzy!
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Carly May 29, 2014 at 4:38 PM
I hope you're feeling better soon! That sounds like it would be such an interesting book- think I'll add it to my to-read list!
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Anonymous May 29, 2014 at 8:45 PM
We just finished the 3rd season, sooo weird!! I miss the first season where you had mini-cases each episode.
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Holly May 30, 2014 at 1:54 PM
I hope your bum knee gets better ASAP!!
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I'm Christy! Planes, Trains, and Running Shoes is my travel and lifestyle blog where I chronicle my adventures around the globe with my airline pilot husband and our little girl. In this space, you'll find tips for making the most of a super short trip, traveling with a baby, training for a race, and other fun things like book reviews, recipes, and more!
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36(ish) Hours in Dublin, Ireland
With everything that's been going on lately, I desperately needed to get away so last weekend, The Pilot and I made our way to Dublin. ...
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"I am very excited to announce that as we continue to see our weekly allocations of doses increase, that I am announcing that as of right now, immediately, Utah adults ages 65 to 69 are now eligible to receive the vaccine." Governor Cox
NARRATOR: "PBS Utah" presents the Governor's Monthly News Conference, an exchange between Utah reporters and governor Spencer Cox.
GOVERNOR COX: Ladies and gentlemen, welcome. It's great to be with you again, it's hard to believe that it's been a month since we were, we were last together, but we have some important announcements today. I'm going to spend some time at the beginning talking about a Coronavirus update, as well as vaccine update. And then I'm happy to, to take questions.
So, first of all, we have made incredible progress over the past month, and especially over the past week when it comes to vaccinating all of Utah's adults aged 70 and over. In fact, as of this morning, we have, we have vaccinated approximately 62% of those that are 70 and over with their, their first doses. Some counties are actually pushing the high sixties and low seventies, which we know there's a spot where we're seeing a softening and that is already happening as we reach the end of those who want to get the vaccine who are age 70 and over. And so, as a result of that, I am very excited to announce that we, as we continue to see our weekly allocations of doses increase, that I am announcing that as of right now, immediately, Utah adults ages 65 to 69 are now eligible to receive the vaccine.
That being said, some counties have more doses available than others right now. So, it will still be we encourage patients. There will be some counties where it's harder to get an appointment right now. We were scheduling to do this on March 1st but we are moving it up. So, we always want demand to outpace supply. That's how we make sure that every vaccine is being used, that we always have vaccines in arms instead of on shelves. It's important to know that again, all of our vaccine providers should now accept anyone 65 years and older. Appointment availability will vary throughout the state, but they're working hard to get more and more people through every day. You can visit coronavirus.utah.gov/vaccine to find out more information on how to schedule an appointment. And I can't emphasize this enough.
We will ask for your continued patience as this will flood phone lines and servers and more and more people will be trying to sign up as those slots become available, those 65 and over will be able to get those. If you can't find an appointment immediately, keep trying and eventually you will get your turn.
Now I announced a couple weeks ago that people with certain underlying medical conditions would also soon be eligible to receive that vaccine. That date was also March 1st, that date will continue to be March 1st. So those with those underlying health conditions, there's a list again coronavirus.utah.gov. You can go in there and see every underlying comorbidity or health condition and who qualifies for those. You will still qualify on March 1st to do that. This helps us in a couple ways.
One again, it makes sure we're able to fill all appointments with those 65 and over. It also gives us a little bit of time. That was, those two, those two categories combined, 65 and older and underlying health conditions, it was about 400,000 people. By splitting it up this way, we'll be able to move people through a little more easily and again, make sure that starting on March 1st, that those with those comorbidities will qualify. So, I hope that that's clear to everyone.
Again, we'll have some time for questions, just a couple other updates that I think are important. Our case counts and percent positivity and hospitalizations are all decreasing. This is very, very good news for our state. They're still high, but much much lower than our peaks of, of December and early January and trending in the right direction. In fact, our numbers look a lot more like they looked in September, which is good news, but we would rather they look like they did in July and March and April. So, we're working to get those down.
We've conducted 3.6 million tests and really want to highlight the testing is still the very best way to identify positive cases so that people can isolate and stop transmitting the virus to others. So, if you do have any symptoms, please get a test. Again, coronavirus@utah.gov, there is a list of places you can get a test but you don't need to have symptoms to get a test. If you've been in close contact with anyone who has had, who has contracted the virus, you can get tested. We have testing happening in lots of different places for lots of different reasons, and we have tests available. So please, please don't hesitate to get tested.
In our transmission index this week, six counties have improved certain key measures and it moved from high to moderate transmission. We now have eight counties in moderate and five counties in low. These, it's important to note that these six counties would have moved to moderate, even if we had not changed the transmission index last week. And we made that change based on percent positivity. We're now measuring two distinct ways of percent positivity. We talked about that in some of our past measures but you can learn more about that as well at coronavirus.utah.gov.
Also, important to note, we are seeing 91% of our long-term care facility residents getting vaccinated. That's a really important number because the highest amount of deaths have come from our long-term care facilities, about 40%. It's been a while since I've checked that number, but I know it's around 40% and so getting 91% of them vaccinated is a really, really big deal. Again, having close now, close to 60% or over 60% of those aged 70 and older getting vaccinated is a big deal because they make up about 70% of the the total deaths in our state, about 73%. And now going to 65, that's another 4% of the deaths, just 65 to 69, which is the next highest category.
So, as you can see, we're methodically, via vaccination, targeting those who are most at risk, which will cut down on hospitalizations and deaths and allow us to get back to normal more quickly. We, I would also note that of the 39 states that we've been able to find that are listing the deaths within their long-term care facilities, Utah has the lowest mortality rate, which is just, just again, really, really positive news. And we're heading in a great direction there.
All of that being said, and if Doctor Dunn were here today, she would tell you and she would have me tell you that it is not a good time to let up on the things that keep us safe and protect us, that will continue to drive down those rates and hospitalizations and deaths, including, especially, mask wearing.
The COVID-19 variants that we're starting to see do pose a real threat. And we still have a way to go before we can remove that mandate. We're getting closer every day. And we'll continue to look very closely at those measures and metrics. And again, working with the legislature on those changes as they become more viable as we get control of this virus and more and more people get vaccinated.
Finally, I'll just conclude with some numbers. We now have administered 563,608 doses of the vaccine, that includes the first and second doses. A week ago today, our total doses administered was 462,000, and that's a weekly increase of almost 101,000 doses, which again is remarkable in some numbers we've never seen in the history of our state in such a short amount of time. So far, our single dose administration record was 24,618 on February 11th. And we are still using every vaccine within seven days of its receipt, which was the goal when we started, our administration started the first week in January. We're very pleased with where we are. We're excited now to open this up to 65 and older, and we're, we're excited to see the results of all these vaccinations.
With that, we're ready to take some questions.
KATIE MCKELLAR, DESERET NEWS: Governor, do you want anything changed in the current version of the bill that came out this week to limit powers during a long-term emergency?
GOVERNOR COX: So, we are working very closely with the legislature on this limitation, as it's been said on the powers of local governments or of the executive branch of state government to issue emergency orders. I think it's really important to point out a couple of things with this.
First of all, the legislature has the power to make these changes. There's no question about that. That is not in debate. The idea philosophically behind emergency powers are this. The legislative branch gives their power to the executive because the nature of a legislative branch is that it is very difficult to bring people together in an emergency and to act quickly. There's nothing quick about what happens in the legislature, although we do have a 45-day session and a lot happens in 45 days, some, like me, would argue that too much happens within those 45 days, but it's a very very important function and it is their function.
So, what they're saying is, during an emergency, we're going to willingly give away the legislative branch's powers to the executive branch to make decisions unilaterally to protect the safety of the people of our state or of an individual community. That balance is very important and very critical. And I recognize that that power that I have comes directly from the legislature. What I've encouraged them all along is to not overreact to something that happens every 100 years. We have made mistakes during this pandemic, for sure.
I would argue that one of the mistakes that we made was not communicating better with the legislature about changes that were happening. We would often communicate with legislative leadership, but as any member of the legislature will tell you, that legislative leadership is not the legislature. And we have, over the past couple months, done a much better job of that.
So, I have appeared directly, which rarely happens with any of my predecessors. I've gone directly to legislative bodies to talk to them about what we're doing. I did it just a couple of weeks ago, meeting with the majority caucuses and the minority caucuses of both the Senate and the House, doing it again next week. And so, we are improving that communication.
We have been directly engaged in negotiations on the emergency powers bill. There have been lots of changes made at our request. We will continue those negotiations. We'll do those privately and when the final version of that bill comes out, we'll let you know whether we support it or not. I think that's the better way to negotiate these. And so we will continue to do that.
We, again, we respect the legislature and what they're attempting to do here. And by the way, I have to just be honest, it would be much easier if the legislature would do more of this. There's this belief out there that governors love executive orders, and governors love emergency powers, and governors love making all these decisions. And let me categorically tell you that the last year, and if Governor Herbert were here, he would tell you was the worst, one of the worst years of his life. It was one of the worst years of my life. It was the one of the worst years of everyone's lives here in the state of Utah. And we had to make decisions that no governor should ever have to make about saving lives and saving livelihoods.
Nobody relishes this, nobody enjoys it. And I will also say, and I will remind the legislature that they now have the ability to call themselves into session at any time and overrule any order that has been done from the very beginning. They have that authority now. They don't need a bill to change that. And I will also note that they failed to exercise that authority at almost every turn because they didn't want to make these decisions either. And so, it's a really, really difficult position to be in. And so, we will work together.
I do think that the emergency order, the power that exists now never contemplated emergencies that lasted for a year. That was not contemplated. It's not something we really thought of. Emergencies or something that happen in a week or a month or two, right? If we have wildfires, we have floods, we have earthquakes, those are the things we normally thought of. And so, I agree and I've said from the beginning that we should examine this and make it better for both the executive branch and the legislative branch to function over the course of something that lasts this long.
KATIE MCKELLAR, DESERET NEWS: The quick follow-up, I mean, governor, 30 days seems like a blip of time when you think about all that's changed over the course of the pandemic. Is that time limit in that bill a safe limit on executive powers?
GOVERNOR COX: Well, those are discussions again that we're still having. 30 days is, it seems like a short amount of time right now, but I will tell you in March, 30 days seemed like a year. And so there, this is the type of thing though, where now, especially with the tools we have, and let me be clear. That's one of the things that has changed, right? 10 years ago, in a pandemic, we could not have safely brought the legislature together. And that would have made it incredibly difficult and incredibly damaging, right? We would have been putting their health at risk and that would not be advisable. And so now we have though electronic tools that do allow them to come together and meet and to make decisions and to do what legislators are supposed to do. And so, whether 30 days is the right number, or 60 days is the right number, there's a number in there, and we'll continue to work to figure out which is the right one.
MICHAEL LOCKLEAR, KUTV: Back on vaccinations, governor. In terms of the 65 plus and the folks with underlying health conditions, do you have an estimate on how long they'll take? And people always want to know what's next. I know you haven't announced the next groups but what are you considering?
GOVERNOR COX: Yeah, so again, it's really just a math issue for us. So, we know that, and I apologize, I should have these numbers top of mind, but it's about 130,000 people ages 65 to 69, okay? And so, we're now getting about 45,000 first doses of vaccine a week, right? So, you start to, you can start to do the math there a little bit. We know 100% of those, they're not going to choose to get the vaccine. So, is it 65, 70% somewhere in there? How long does it take you to reach that?
Now we we've already announced the next phase, which are those underlying comorbidities. There's about 220,000 I want to say in that category. So, a really big category. We start them on March 1st now. And, but we're getting, we're getting more doses every week and in March, we're going to keep getting significant increases we've been told by the Biden Administration, especially if Johnson and Johnson comes online, which we should know probably in the next week and a half, I think somewhere in there to two weeks. And so, we anticipate that we will see, we'll be able to go through those 65 to 69 and those comorbidities now into mid to March, late March, somewhere in there, right?
Depending on the amount of doses and what I will tell you, you will see is we will keep doing age-based categories. So, we'll go from 65, next it will be 60 to 64, right? And then 55 to 59. And we will also, and we're working with the experts at the health department to layer in the rest of the comorbidities, those underlying health conditions that aren't as serious as this first wave, but are still serious. And we're doing a complete risk assessment.
So, we really are looking at risk of death and hospitalization, and that's how we're making these decisions. So, there is a point where someone who is younger with one of these underlying health conditions looks like a 59-year-old, right? When you look at the risk categories in Utah and how many people have died and been hospitalized. And so, we will elevate those at the right, at the right level. And that's what people can expect. We do still expect that the numbers we've been talking about, Pfizer and Moderna, agreed to have 200 million doses in the United States. So, a hundred million first doses by the end of March. And we've been told that they are still on track to meet those obligations. Johnson and Johnson, I believe, has guaranteed a hundred million by the 1st of June. And so, if you just start to look at how those layout, we really do anticipate that into April and May, into May, that everyone, every adult who wants a vaccine will, should be eligible for a vaccine unless things change. So, we feel really good about that.
The only thing that could soil this up is, again, the amount of vaccines being produced, if something happens in the production cycle or in the delivery cycle. We did have one little, not little, it's a big issue in shipments with the terrible weather in the Midwest and the South that we had some shipments that were delayed because of trucks couldn't get out and planes getting de-iced and slowed down. So, Saint George Shipment was delayed but that will be made up we're told very quickly. It's just getting the planes out and getting them here. But those are the types of things that could slow that down. However, again, from all the information we're receiving, we're very confident at that May timeline.
RUDY NIEVES, TELEMUNDO UTAH: Please. Good morning, governor Cox. So we know that President Joe Biden will be presenting any minute an immigration reform bill, according to him, that could help a lot of immigrants in the country. Is that something that you will be welcomed to the immigrants in the state of Utah? Or do you have any concerns about that?
GOVERNOR COX: Sure. So obviously, I haven't seen the bill so I don't know what is in that bill, but what I can say is that Utah has a history of working collaboratively on immigration issues. It's now been, gosh, I want to say maybe nine years ago, it was before I was Lieutenant Governor, that the state passed comprehensive immigration reform. Now, unfortunately, that immigration form was never implemented because the Obama Administration refused to allow us to implement that. And, and I will say, that neither did the Trump Administration.
This is not a partisan statement but the federal government has not allowed us to what to do that unfortunately, but I will also say I've always been really amazed and I guess, disturbed, confused, at how we haven't been able to solve the immigration problem. It may surprise people, but immigration really isn't one of the most controversial issues. Now, politicians have made it controversial.
But when you look at polling of average voters, most of them agree. And the two things that they agree on, even Republicans, and this will surprise people, but most people agree that we should make legal immigration easier, that we should fix legal immigration, but most people aren't anti-immigrant, they're anti legal immigrant, but also recognize that there are problems with the immigration system. And so they want to secure the border, they want to fix legal immigration and then they want to make it easier for people that are here to gain some sort of legal status. Now, most of them don't support full citizenship, but they do support some sort of legal status, which is what we did here in Utah, and which is what should be done. And so I do believe that there is room for Republicans and Democrats alike to really work on this issue and to solve this issue, to bring people out from living in the shadows, to help fix the economic aspects of immigration, as well. And to help, especially those kids that have, you know, that have grown up here and have been born here. And so those are the types of principles that I've always believed in, and that the state of Utah has exhibited. And so, I think and I hope, that the administration will be open to collaborating and working on these. And that's how we're going to get to a solution that most people can agree on.
RAEANN CHRISTENSEN, PBS UTAH: Okay, we would like to take a question from one of our remote reporters. So Lisa with Deseret News, go ahead.
LISA RILEY ROCHE, DESERET NEWS: Thank you. Governor Cox, you said you're still very confident Utah can meet that May, end of May timeline for getting a vaccine to every Utahan who wants one. However, this week, President Biden said it's going to take until the end of July for that to happen nationally. There seems to be some concern that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine timeline for ramping up this production and distribution may have been a little overly optimistic at first. They'll still get to the same number of doses but it's going to take a little longer. Does Utah need to revise that timeline? Are you setting some unrealistic expectations here?
GOVERNOR COX: Well, again, we're just taking the information that's been given to us and it was interesting, there were a lot of conflicting reports coming out of the Biden Administration. The CDC Director reported that vaccines would be available April, May timelines for anybody that wanted it. Doctor Scott Gottlieb has talked about how in April, we're going to start having a demand problem more than a supply problem. And then we get these conflicting reports, some vague reports about maybe July. What we've learned from the Biden Administration is they like to under promise and over deliver. And that's not a bad thing. I think lots of people, you know, I mean his goal was to have 100 million doses in a hundred days, but we were already doing more than a million doses a day before he took office. So that's a very underwhelming goal.
We'll revise those timelines as we get hard data. And we have not been given any of that. We are using the hard data that has been given to us from the very beginning. And so we're still very optimistic and unless and until they tell us otherwise, and again, we met with them this week, and they were still very, I mean, this week in our meeting with the Biden Administration, they were talking about the Johnson and Johnson vaccine as if it will receive its approval and that they were still on course for their manufacturing deadlines.
So, we'll revise them as they come. That's what we've done from the very beginning but we're also far ahead of where people thought we would be, far ahead of the projections that were given in December and even into January. And so, we feel very confident about that and where we are, and we'll continue to use those timelines until we're told otherwise
RAEANN CHRISTENSEN, PBS UTAH: Okay, Taylor, with the Salt Lake Tribune, go ahead with your question.
TAYLOR STEVENS, SALT LAKE TRIBUNE: Hi, Governor Cox. Bill passed through the House yesterday that would bar transgender girls from female sports. What is your position on that bill? And if it makes it through the Senate to your desk, will you sign it?
GOVERNOR COX: Thank you, Taylor. I will tell you that this is one of the most complicated and difficult bills that we have this session and it's complicated and difficult for a couple reasons.
One, the main reason that it's complicated and difficult is that both sides of this issue are actually right. And there's a lot of, there's a lot of passion, a lot of fiery rhetoric, a lot of name calling on both sides of this issue that I think is very unfortunate.
So, look, there are biological advantages with your birth gender. That's, those are biological facts and nobody disputes that at all. It is also a fact that women's sports has had a disadvantage for many, many years. We've gotten better, but we still have a ways to go. And so, I want to say this, the bill sponsor is coming from a genuine place of concern. And I don't think demonizing her or her intention is helpful at all. Because again, these are real valid, serious concerns.
And by the way, this is not a Utah issue. This is an issue that every state and every country is working through right now. I mean, at this moment. There is a group of women who have gotten together who are our experts and their work, Martina Navratilova, other, Olympic medalists, PhDs, just over the past week, they've announced, or two weeks, that they're working on trying to figure out this issue because it is a threat to women's sports.
But also, and this is where I think we have to be just so so very careful, is that if you have not spent time with transgender youth, then I would encourage you to pause on this issue. We have so many people that are in a very very difficult spot right now. And we have very few, if any transgender girls, that are participating in sports. We've gotten really good at the LGBTQ side of things. We're struggling on the T side of things and we will work hard on this. I'm still working with the sponsor. We have a meeting today to see if we can figure out a Utah way to solve this issue. And we will have more to come on that.
RAEANN CHRISTENSEN, PBS UTAH: All right, thank you, governor. That's all the time we have for our broadcast portion of this show. To see this full conference, you can go to pbsutah.org and we will see you back here next month.
NARRATOR: This has been the Governor's Monthly News Conference. For transcripts of video and more information, visit utah.org/governor.
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The idea for Spreading Alohaa started in my subconscious when I first moved to Europe from Hawai’i. I had a deep feeling that something was missing in my life, and as the years passed, I realised that it was the spirit of Aloha. Since that epiphany, I’ve made it my mission to inspire and help others achieve balance and fulfillment through a healthy lifestyle, for mind, body and soul.
Sunsets on O’ahu (one of the eight islands that make up Hawaii) along with its capital, Honolulu, will mesmerise you. The spirit of Aloha is everywhere – there’s a deep intrinsic feeling from the moment you land until you leave that cannot be explained, it must be experienced first hand. There is a perpetual feeling of gratitude, of simplicity, and an overwhelming thought of how lucky one is to witness all this beauty, including a breath-taking sunset like this overlooking the famous 200 million year old view at Diamond Head!
Kokohead is the headland that defines the eastern side of Maunalua Bay, along the south-eastern side of the island of O’ahu. It’s a popular tourist attraction with over 1,000 steps overlooking downtown Honolulu and the famous beachfront neighbourhood of Waikiki. I hiked this a few years ago and not only can you capture a stunning panoramic view of the island like this one, you can also get a great cardio workout walking all those steps. Talk about a burn in your quads and glutes! All worth it trust me!
Hawai’ians are one of a kind. Extremely hospitable, from the moment you put your foot on the island, they welcome you not as a guest but as Ohana (family). I was lucky enough to stay with a close friend for couple of weeks while on O’ahu. Breakfast views like this makes leaving unbearable. In the heart of Waikiki, I captured this photo on my first day during a welcoming feast. And as you can see the strength and beauty of the Pacific is endless.
Surfing is entrenched in the Hawaiian culture. It’s a must when visiting! There are several breath-taking spots for this, including Waikiki, depending on your experience. Waimea Bay (pictured above), which is located in the historical town of Haleiwa, is world-famous for its waves and surf competitions. A bit out of my league of surfing (though I’m working on it), I did, however, watch in wonder at those beautiful wave breaks. To get a glimpse of historical O’ahu, you do not want to miss this part of the island.
Let me tell you about Ohana (family). It’s a word that I first came across when living on the island. As an outsider (non-local), you’d think that you might feel alone, but you couldn’t be more wrong. After six days on the island, I met this braddah (Hawaiian way of saying ‘bro’): Shane Lyman and his warrior wife Pomaika. They immediately welcomed me into their home, as a friend and family member – something I’d never experienced before. They made me feel like a local, a part of the community, and gave me a sense of what Aloha Aina (love of the island) really means. My encounter with them made me feel, right from the start, that I was part of their family- something I’ll carry with me forever. It is one of the experiences that inspired me to go on my mission with Audrey to spread Alohaa around the world. I want to share what they showed me through compassion, love, and unconditional commitment – Aloha nui loa (with lots of love)!
Contributed by Ash Amiri
by Sigournee Grano
United States
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United States
by Calli Duncan
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