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The good news does not stop there. Buried beneath the daily stories about suicide bombings and insurgency movements is an underappreciated but encouraging fact: The world has somehow become a more peaceful place. A little-noticed headline on an Associated Press story a while back reported, “War declining worldwide, studies say.” In 2006, a survey by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute found that the number of armed conflicts around the world has been in decline for the past half-century. Since the early 1990s, ongoing conflicts have dropped from 33 to 17, with all of them now civil conflicts within countries. The Institute’s latest report found that 2005 marked the second year in a row that no two nations were at war with one another. What a remarkable and wonderful fact. The death toll from war has also been falling. According to the Associated Press report, “The number killed in battle has fallen to its lowest point in the post-World War II period, dipping below 20,000 a year by one measure. Peacemaking missions, meanwhile, are growing in number.” Current estimates of people killed by war are down sharply from annual tolls ranging from 40,000 to 100,000 in the 1990s, and from a peak of 700,000 in 1951 during the Korean War. Many causes lie behind the good news—the end of the Cold War and the spread of democracy, among them—but expanding trade and globalization appear to be playing a major role in promoting world peace. Far from stoking a “World on Fire,” as one misguided American author argued in a forgettable book, growing commercial ties between nations have had a dampening effect on armed conflict and war. I would argue that free trade and globalization have promoted peace in three main ways. First, as I argued a moment ago, trade and globalization have reinforced the trend toward democracy, and democracies tend not to pick fights with each other. Thanks in part to globalization, almost two thirds of the world’s countries today are democracies—a record high. Some studies have cast doubt on the idea that democracies are less likely to fight wars. While it’s true that democracies rarely if ever war with each other, it is not such a rare occurrence for democracies to engage in wars with non-democracies. We can still hope that has more countries turn to democracy, there will be fewer provocations for war by non-democracies. A second and even more potent way that trade has promoted peace is by promoting more economic integration. As national economies become more intertwined with each other, those nations have more to lose should war break out. War in a globalized world not only means human casualties and bigger government, but also ruptured trade and investment ties that impose lasting damage on the economy. In short, globalization has dramatically raised the economic cost of war. The 2005 Economic Freedom of the World Report contains an insightful chapter on “Economic Freedom and Peace” by Dr. Erik Gartzke, a professor of political science at Columbia University. Dr. Gartzke compares the propensity of countries to engage in wars and their level of economic freedom and concludes that economic freedom, including the freedom to trade, significantly decreases the probability that a country will experience a military dispute with another country. Through econometric analysis, he found that, “Making economies freer translates into making countries more peaceful. At the extremes, the least free states are about 14 times as conflict prone as the most free.” By the way, Dr. Gartzke’s analysis found that economic freedom was a far more important variable in determining a countries propensity to go to war than democracy. A third reason why free trade promotes peace is because it allows nations to acquire wealth through production and exchange rather than conquest of territory and resources. As economies develop, wealth is increasingly measured in terms of intellectual property, financial assets, and human capital. Such assets cannot be easily seized by armies. In contrast, hard assets such as minerals and farmland are becoming relatively less important in a high-tech, service economy. If people need resources outside their national borders, say oil or timber or farm products, they can acquire them peacefully by trading away what they can produce best at home. In short, globalization and the development it has spurred have rendered the spoils of war less valuable. Of course, free trade and globalization do not guarantee peace. Hot-blooded nationalism and ideological fervor can overwhelm cold economic calculations. Any relationship involving human beings will be messy and non-linier. There will always be exceptions and outliers in such complex relationships involving economies and governments. But deep trade and investment ties among nations make war less attractive. A Virtuous Cycle of Democracy, Peace and Trade The global trends we’ve witnessed in the spread of trade, democracy and peace tend to reinforce each other in a grand and virtuous cycle. As trade and development encourage more representative government, those governments provide more predictability and incremental reform, creating a better climate for trade and investment to flourish. And as the spread of trade and democracy foster peace, the decline of war creates a more hospitable environment for trade and economic growth and political stability.
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Griswold 07 (Daniel Griswold is director of the Cato Institute's Center for Trade Policy Studies, “Trade, Democracy and Peace: The Virtuous Cycle”, April 20, 2007, http://www.cato.org/publications/speeches/trade-democracy-peace-virtuous-cycle, AD 7/11/13, AK)
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The world has somehow become a more peaceful place. an Associated Press story reported, “War declining worldwide In 2006, a survey by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute found that the number of armed conflicts around the world has been in decline for the past half-century. The death toll from war has also been falling. causes lie behind the good news—the end of the Cold War and the spread of democracy, democracies tend not to pick fights with each other almost two thirds of the world’s countries today are democracies—a record high. it’s true that democracies rarely if ever war with each other, it is not such a rare occurrence for democracies to engage in wars with non-democracies. We can still hope that has more countries turn to democracy, there will be fewer provocations for war by non-democracies. the least free states are about 14 times as conflict prone democracy and peace tend to reinforce each other in a grand and virtuous cycle. as the spread of democracy foster peace, the decline of war creates a more hospitable environment for political stability.
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Democracy stabilizes the globe and prevents multiple scenarios for war
| 5,416 | 70 | 1,091 | 863 | 10 | 182 | 0.011587 | 0.210892 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,401 |
Despite its many virtues, however, the book paints an overly optimistic portrait of the state of the U.S. economy. “More than four years after Lehman Brothers went under,” Blinder writes, “policy makers are still nursing a frail economy back to health.” But the U.S. economy is worse than “frail,” and there are few signs that it is being nursed “back to health.” Most economists claim at least one silver lining in the economic downturn: that it was not as bad as the Great Depression. Up until recently, I agreed; I even took to calling the episode “the Lesser Depression.” I now suspect that I was wrong. Compare the ongoing crisis to the Great Depression, and there is hardly anything “lesser” about it. The European economy today stands in a worse position compared to 2007 than it did in 1935 compared to 1929, when the Great Depression began. And it looks as if the U.S. economy, when all is said and done, will have faced certainly one lost decade, and perhaps even two. The U.S. economy has enjoyed a recovery only in the sense that conditions have not gotten worse. Blinder notes that the unemployment rate jumped to ten percent at the height of the crisis and is now hovering around eight percent, nearly halfway back to economic health. But this assessment is misleading. In the middle of the last decade, the percentage of American adults who were employed was roughly 63 percent. That figure dropped to about 59 percent in 2009. It remains there today. From the perspective of employment, the U.S. economy is not recovering but flatlining. Look at the GDP figures: in the 12 years between the beginning of the Great Depression and the United States’ entry into World War II, the U.S. economy saw its production drop by an amount equal to 180 percent of the output of one average pre-crisis year. If one assumes, as the Congressional Budget Office does, that U.S. production will return to its pre-2008 form by 2017, the economy will have suffered a shortfall equivalent to only 60 percent of one average pre-crisis year. But it is unlikely that the economic downturn will be over by 2017: no war or major innovation appears to be looming on the horizon that could propel the country into an economic boom the way World War II did at the end of the Great Depression. If the downturn drags on into a second lost decade, the United States will incur further losses equal to the output of a full average pre-crisis year, bringing the total cost of the crisis to 160 percent of an average pre-crisis year and nearly equal to that of the Great Depression. Of course, the present downturn has caused far less human misery than the Great Depression did. But that is because of political factors, not economic ones. The great network of social insurance programs established by President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, President Harry Truman’s Fair Deal, President John F. Kennedy’s New Frontier, and President Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society, and defended by President Bill Clinton, sharply limits the amount of poverty a downturn can cause. And what of the future? Only ambitious political action of the kind that created those programs can insure the country against suffering an equal economic calamity down the line. Yet the U.S. political system is dysfunctional. Congress will not support the kind of financial regulation the country sorely needs. Blinder concludes his narrative with a number of smart forward-looking recommendations, but his book’s biggest weakness is its lack of a road map out of the present impasse that takes into account the political climate. Without a more dramatic set of actions, the United States is likely to suffer another major economic crisis in the years ahead.
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Delong 7/1 J. BRADFORD DELONG, Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Visiting Fellow at the Kauffman Foundation, “The Second Great Depression,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2013 (publication date 7/1/2013) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139464/j-bradford-delong/the-second-great-depression?page=show
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the U.S. economy is worse than “frail,” there are few signs that it is being nursed “back to health.” Compare the ongoing crisis to the Great Depression, and there is hardly anything “lesser” about it. The European economy stands in a worse position compared to 2007 than it did in 1935 compared to 1929 the U.S. economy, will have faced certainly one lost decade, and perhaps even two. From the perspective of employment, the U.S. economy is not recovering but flatlining. it is unlikely that the economic downturn will be over by 2017 no major innovation appears to be looming on the horizon that could propel the country into an economic boom the way World War II did at the end of the Great Depression Only ambitious political action can insure the country against economic calamity the U.S. political system is dysfunctional Without a more dramatic set of actions, the United States is likely to suffer another major economic crisis
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ADVANTAGE ___ : ECONOMY
| 3,706 | 23 | 937 | 629 | 4 | 160 | 0.006359 | 0.254372 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,402 |
Grant Strom, who farms near Williamsfield, and David Serven, a St. Augustine-area farmer, were among more than 20 Illinois Farm Bureau members and staff from across the state who traveled to Cuba on June 28 through July 2 in an effort to promote the resumption of normal trading relations with the country. Strom, who was impressed by the Cuban people, said U.S. farmers can sell their products to the Caribbean nation, but there are a number of hurdles to jump to do so. For instance, the U.S. government will not allow Cuba to buy agriculture products on credit. “If Cuba wants to buy a barge load of wheat, they have to pay for it in cash,” he said. While products such as coffee, rum and cigars are produced in Cuba and in demand in the U.S., “They can’t sell those things back to us,” Strom said. He said those restrictions hurt farmers in the U.S., who cannot readily sell their crops to the potential market, as well as the average Cuban, rather than government officials in the Communist country. Food shortage “They’re on the brink of a food shortage in Cuba,” Strom said. Serven said each Cuban has a food coupon book. “They can go to market and buy their needs at subsidized costs,” he said. Serven said Cubans used to be able to use coupons to buy household goods, as well, but those are no longer available. “Restoring normal trade relations with Cuba is an important step in furthering Illinois farmers’ abilities to market their produce, including grains, meat and dairy products,” said Tamara Nelsen, senior director of commodities for the Illinois Farm Bureau. “Agriculture has been a bright spot in our nation’s — and our state’s — economy during the recent downturn. Improving our trade relations with Cuba will only help to ensure agriculture can continue to strengthen our state and national economies.” While there may be some potential for renewed trade with Cuba if the embargo is lifted, Serven thinks it will help Cuba more than affecting U.S. farmers. “As far as being a boon for U.S. agriculture, I don’t think that will happen,” he said. “But it’s just the fact that we’re so close.” Strom said the trade embargo has very real effects. For instance, rather than buying rice from Mississippi, which would take three days to get to the island nation, Cuba is forced to buy it from Vietnam, which takes 28 days to ship the nation, about 100 miles south of Florida. “So logistically, the cost would be a whole lot cheaper (for Cuba) to buy food from the United States, just because of transportation costs,” Serven said. He said there could be a market for U.S. dairy products. “They were talking about a shortage of milk, especially for children,” Serven said. Labor-intensive farming He said if the embargo was lifted, Cuba also would likely buy equipment for farming and want people to help show them how to use it. While the group from Illinois expected to get to visit dairy and livestock farms, Strom said travel restrictions limited trips to back yard gardens in Havana. Those on the trip also visited the Alamar Urban Garden, just outside of Havana. “There’s a lot of restrictions as to where you can and can’t go,” he said. Strom said oxen are used to plow the back yard gardens in the Latin American country, which also has little access to fertilizer or pesticides. He said about 160 people work 140 acres in the gardens.
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Pulliam ’12 JOHN R. PULLIAM, “Farmers want Cuban embargo lifted,” Galesburg Register-Mail, 7/8/2012, http://www.galesburg.com/news/x1271220402/Farmers-want-Cuban-embargo-lifted#axzz2Y1R3Us3L
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U.S. farmers can sell their products to the Caribbean nation, but there are a number of hurdles to jump to do so. the U.S. government will not allow Cuba to buy agriculture products on credit. restrictions hurt farmers in the U.S., who cannot readily sell their crops to the potential market Restoring normal trade relations with Cuba is an important step in furthering farmers’ abilities to market their produce, including grains, meat and dairy products Agriculture has been a bright spot in our nation’s economy during the recent downturn Improving trade relations with Cuba will only help to ensure agriculture can continue to strengthen our economies rather than buying rice from Mississippi, which would take three days to get to the island nation, Cuba is forced to buy it from Vietnam, which takes 28 days to ship logistically the cost would be a whole lot cheaper there could be a market for U.S. dairy products. if the embargo was lifted, Cuba also would likely buy equipment for farming and want people to help show them how to use it. “There’s a lot of restrictions as to where you can and can’t go,” the country also has little access to fertilizer or pesticides.
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The plan opens up new markets with huge demand for US agricultural exports – that’s critical to US economic sustainability
| 3,357 | 122 | 1,176 | 587 | 20 | 202 | 0.034072 | 0.344123 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,403 |
Two neatly opposed scenarios for the future of the world order illustrate the range of possibilities, albeit at the risk of oversimplification. The first scenario entails the premature crumbling of the post-Westphalian system. One or more of the acute tensions apparent today evolves into an open and traditional conflict between states, perhaps even involving the use of nuclear weapons. The crisis might be triggered by a collapse of the global economic and financial system, the vulnerability of which we have just experienced, and the prospect of a second Great Depression, with consequences for peace and democracy similar to those of the first. Whatever the trigger, the unlimited exercise of national sovereignty, exclusive self-interest and rejection of outside interference would likely be amplified, emptying, perhaps entirely, the half-full glass of multilateralism, including the UN and the European Union. Many of the more likely conflicts, such as between Israel and Iran or India and Pakistan, have potential religious dimensions. Short of war, tensions such as those related to immigration might become unbearable. Familiar issues of creed and identity could be exacerbated. One way or another, the secular rational approach would be sidestepped by a return to theocratic absolutes, competing or converging with secular absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.
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Merlini ’11 Cesare Merlini, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute of International Affairs, of which he had been the president for many years, and a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, “A Post-Secular World?” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, Volume 53, Issue 2, 2011, DOI:10.1080/00396338.2011.571015
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One or more of the acute tensions apparent today evolves into an open and traditional conflict between states, perhaps even involving the use of nuclear weapons might be triggered by collapse of the global economic system, the vulnerability of which we have just experienced, and a second Great Depression unlimited exercise of sovereignty self-interest and rejection of interference would likely be amplified, emptying multilateralism, including the UN and the E U Many conflicts have religious dimensions tensions might become unbearable issues of creed and identity could be exacerbated
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The impact is nuclear exchange
| 1,376 | 30 | 589 | 206 | 5 | 88 | 0.024272 | 0.427184 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
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Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,404 |
Cuba said Monday that its economy will grow by no more than 3 percent this year, about the same as in 2012 but far short of the 3.6 percent goal and another indication that President Raul Castro's reforms are generating little new economic activity. Castro, nevertheless, seemed pleased with the reports on his reforms submitted Friday to a meeting of the Council of Ministers and detailed in a story Monday in Granma, the official newspaper of the ruling Communist Party. "We continue advancing and the results can be seen. We are moving at a faster pace than can be imagined by those who criticize our supposed slow pace and ignore the difficulties that we face," he was quoted as saying at the meeting. Since succeeding older brother Fidel in 2008, Castro has allowed more private enterprise and cut state payrolls and subsidies. But many economists have dismissed his reforms as too slow and too weak to rescue Cuba's Soviet-style economy. Minister of the Economy and Planning Adel Yzquierdo said at the Cabinet meeting that he expects gross domestic product to grow 2.5 to 3 percent. The country's GDP grew 3 percent last year. Yzquierdo blamed the shortcomings on several factors, including last year's Hurricane Sandy, which caused an estimated $2 billion in damage, and what Granma called "the deficiencies that are part and parcel of the Cuban economy."
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Tamayo 7/1 Juan O. Tamayo, “Cuban economy stalls despite government reforms,” Idaho Statesman, 7/1/2013, http://www.idahostatesman.com/2013/07/01/2639714/cuban-economy-stalls-despite-government.html
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Cuba said its economy will grow by no more than 3 percent this year far short of the 3.6 percent goal another indication that Castro's reforms are generating little new economic activity. many economists have dismissed his reforms as too slow and too weak to rescue Cuba's Soviet-style economy. Yzquierdo blamed shortcomings on several factors, including Hurricane Sandy, and the deficiencies that are part and parcel of the Cuban economy."
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Scenario 2 is Cuba
| 1,362 | 18 | 440 | 228 | 4 | 70 | 0.017544 | 0.307018 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,405 |
A new kind of class confrontation The new social composition of classes that the “updating” process is creating presents at one extreme the “unanticipated” bureaucratic political and military class that believes itself to be the legitimate owner of the country’s entire economy. At the other extreme is the dispossessed and badly paid class of salaried workers that the state exploits. The new small and medium capitalists who exploit their own salaried workers represent a kind of nouveau riche class, benefitted by the updating measures but still held down by the State’s strictures. The salaried workers exploited by these newly wealthy live better than the State salaried workers and as such prefer private capitalism. Then there are the true self-employed workers who don’t exploit outside labor – from the intellectuals and artists with large incomes right down to the elderly peanut sellers – all of them burdened by abusive state taxes. The state throws the new capitalists and their salaried workers into the same sack as the authentic self-employed, all under the label of “cuentapropistas” [self-employed]. And finally there are the cooperative members, formally organized or not, who work together and divide the profits; they are also smothered by state regulations. Apart from all these, there is a class that’s not present in Cuba but which continues to push its agenda: the true wealthy capitalist class with large businesses, settled fundamentally in Miami. This class, exiled from power, has always aspired to return and today continues to plot its comeback on the heels of large international capital. The bureaucratic bourgeoisie now finds itself confronting all of these other classes and national groupings because it lives off of them exploiting all of them directly through salaried work or via abusive taxes and monopoly control of the economy, trade, finances and the dual monetary system. They are the class that is impeding the development of all the others, be it the wealthy classes or the germinating socialist class. Only themselves to blame There’s no doubt about it: the productive forces in Cuba, be it for the development of private capitalism or to socialize the economy, are facing a common obstacle: the centralized state system and its bureaucracy determined to maintain itself in power indefinitely. I don’t intend to sharpen contradictions that require peaceful and democratic solutions, but objectively the tendency of the class composition of Cuban society and an analysis of its interests presents the bureaucratic bourgeoisie created by State socialism as a kind of class that stands in opposition to social and economic advance in Cuba in any direction other than its own strengthening as a hegemonic group. In this way, they have positioned themselves against the entire Cuban people, against all of their classes and current social groupings. According to Carlos Marx, when the productive forces are held back by the relations of production – in this case the salaried State workers – revolutions appear. Later, let them not blame the imperialists, the “counterrevolutionary” forces, the Miami “mafia”, the new technologies, nor much less the peaceful democratic and socialist left who have done everything possible to help find the road that they have blocked. Instead they should seek the causes from within, in their own self-interest, limitations and befuddlement.
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Campos 7/8 Pedro Campos, “Cuba’s Burning Economic Contradictions,” Havana Times, 7/8/2013, http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=96009
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The new social composition of classes that the “updating” process is creating presents at one extreme the “unanticipated” bureaucratic political and military class that believes itself to be the legitimate owner of the country’s entire economy At the other extreme is the dispossessed and badly paid class of salaried workers that the state exploits. The new small and medium capitalists who exploit their own salaried workers represent a kind of nouveau riche class, benefitted by the updating measures but still held down by the State’s strictures the productive forces in Cuba, are facing a common obstacle: the centralized state system and its bureaucracy determined to maintain itself in power indefinitely the bureaucratic bourgeoisie have positioned themselves against the entire Cuban people when productive forces are held back by salaried State workers – revolutions appear
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Continued economic malaise risks Cuban internal instability and civil war
| 3,417 | 73 | 883 | 538 | 10 | 134 | 0.018587 | 0.249071 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,406 |
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s problems of a post Castro transformation only worsen. In addition to Cubans on the island, there will be those in exile who will return claiming authority. And there are remnants of the dissident community within Cuba who will attempt to exercise similar authority. A power vacuum or absence of order will create the conditions for instability and civil war. Whether Raul or another successor from within the current government can hold power is debatable. However, that individual will nonetheless extend the current policies for an indefinite period, which will only compound the Cuban situation. When Cuba finally collapses anarchy is a strong possibility if the U.S. maintains the “wait and see” approach. The U.S. then must deal with an unstable country 90 miles off its coast. In the midst of this chaos, thousands will flee the island. During the Mariel boatlift in 1980 125,000 fled the island.26 Many were criminals; this time the number could be several hundred thousand fleeing to the U.S., creating a refugee crisis. Equally important, by adhering to a negative containment policy, the U.S. may be creating its next series of transnational criminal problems. Cuba is along the axis of the drug-trafficking flow into the U.S. from Columbia. The Castro government as a matter of policy does not support the drug trade. In fact, Cuba’s actions have shown that its stance on drugs is more than hollow rhetoric as indicated by its increasing seizure of drugs – 7.5 tons in 1995, 8.8 tons in 1999, and 13 tons in 2000.27 While there may be individuals within the government and outside who engage in drug trafficking and a percentage of drugs entering the U.S. may pass through Cuba, the Cuban government is not the path of least resistance for the flow of drugs. If there were no Cuban restraints, the flow of drugs to the U.S. could be greatly facilitated by a Cuba base of operation and accelerate considerably. In the midst of an unstable Cuba, the opportunity for radical fundamentalist groups to operate in the region increases. If these groups can export terrorist activity from Cuba to the U.S. or throughout the hemisphere then the war against this extremism gets more complicated. Such activity could increase direct attacks and disrupt the economies, threatening the stability of the fragile democracies that are budding throughout the region. In light of a failed state in the region, the U.S. may be forced to deploy military forces to Cuba, creating the conditions for another insurgency. The ramifications of this action could very well fuel greater anti-American sentiment throughout the Americas. A proactive policy now can mitigate these potential future problems. U.S. domestic political support is also turning against the current negative policy. The Cuban American population in the U.S. totals 1,241,685 or 3.5% of the population.28 Most of these exiles reside in Florida; their influence has been a factor in determining the margin of victory in the past two presidential elections. But this election strategy may be flawed, because recent polls of Cuban Americans reflect a decline for President Bush based on his policy crackdown. There is a clear softening in the Cuban-American community with regard to sanctions. Younger Cuban Americans do not necessarily subscribe to the hard-line approach. These changes signal an opportunity for a new approach to U.S.-Cuban relations. (Table 1) The time has come to look realistically at the Cuban issue. Castro will rule until he dies. The only issue is what happens then? The U.S. can little afford to be distracted by a failed state 90 miles off its coast. The administration, given the present state of world affairs, does not have the luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional American model of crisis management. The President and other government and military leaders have warned that the GWOT will be long and protracted. These warnings were sounded when the administration did not anticipate operations in Iraq consuming so many military, diplomatic and economic resources. There is justifiable concern that Africa and the Caucasus region are potential hot spots for terrorist activity, so these areas should be secure. North Korea will continue to be an unpredictable crisis in waiting. We also cannot ignore China. What if China resorts to aggression to resolve the Taiwan situation? Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan? Additionally, Iran could conceivably be the next target for U.S. pre-emptive action. These are known and potential situations that could easily require all or many of the elements of national power to resolve. In view of such global issues, can the U.S. afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban situation play out? The U.S. is at a crossroads: should the policies of the past 40 years remain in effect with vigor? Or should the U.S. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
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Gorrell 5 (Tim Gorrell, Lieutenant Colonel, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” 3/18/05, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074, AD 7/11/13, AK)
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Regardless of the succession Cuba’s problems of a post Castro transformation only worsen. In addition to Cubans there will be those in exile who will return claiming authority. And there are remnants of the dissident community who will attempt to exercise similar authority. A power vacuum or absence of order will create the conditions for instability and civil war. Whether another successor can hold power is debatable. that individual will extend the current policies which will only compound the situation. When Cuba finally collapses anarchy is a strong possibility The U.S. then must deal with an unstable country 90 miles off its coast. thousands will flee the island. this time the number could be several hundred thousand flee to the U.S., creating a refugee crisis. the U.S. may be creating its next series of transnational criminal problems. Cuba’s actions have shown that its stance on drugs is more than hollow rhetoric as indicated by its increasing seizure of drugs the Cuban government is not the path of least resistance for the flow of drugs. If there were no Cuban restraints, the flow of drugs to the U.S. could be greatly facilitated by a Cuba base of operation and accelerate considerably. In the midst of an unstable Cuba, the opportunity for radical fundamentalist groups to operate in the region increases. If these groups can export terrorist activity from Cuba to the U.S. or throughout the hemisphere then the war against this extremism gets more complicated. Such activity could increase direct attacks and disrupt the economies, threatening the stability of the fragile democracies that are budding throughout the region. In light of a failed state in the region, the U.S. may be forced to deploy military forces to Cuba, creating the conditions for another insurgency. fuel greater anti-American sentiment throughout the Americas. The U.S. can little afford to be distracted by a failed state 90 miles off its coast. The administration does not have the luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional American model of crisis management. the GWOT will be long and protracted. Africa and the Caucasus region are potential hot spots for terrorist activity North Korea will continue to be an unpredictable crisis in waiting. We also cannot ignore China. What if China resorts to aggression to resolve the Taiwan situation? Iran could conceivably be the next target for U.S. pre-emptive action. These are known and potential situations that could easily require all or many of the elements of national power to resolve. I can the U.S. afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban situation play out?
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Cuban instability spills over into multiple hotspots and leads to global conflict
| 5,032 | 81 | 2,643 | 823 | 12 | 432 | 0.014581 | 0.524909 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,407 |
Clearly, Cuba has plenty of potential for economic development and trade, but nothing will be realized unless United States repeals the embargo. Recent moves by Cuba's Raul Castro indicate that the government is willing and able to sit down with the U.S. and discuss differences in order to achieve consensus. In recent remarks, Castro emphasized that the discourse must be "a conversation between equals," and that "any day they [the United States] want, the table is set," signaling an important step towards more conciliatory interactions. The U.S. should act upon Senator Richard Lugar' s February 2009 report from the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations and implement his recommended policy changes by "seizing the initiative... [which] would relinquish a conditional posture that has made any policy changes contingent on Havana, not Washington."
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Harding & Rojas-Ruiz 12 (Andrew Harding and Jorge Rojas-Ruiz, research associates on the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, “An Economic Analysis of the Cuban Embargo”, Council on the Hemispheric Affairs, 8/24/12, Proquest, AD 7/10/13, AK)
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Cuba has plenty of potential for economic development and trade, but nothing will be realized unless United States repeals the embargo. Recent moves by Cuba's Raul Castro indicate that the government is willing and able to sit down with the U.S. and discuss differences in order to achieve consensus. Castro emphasized that the discourse must be "a conversation between equals," and that "any day they [the United States] want, the table is set," signaling an important step towards more conciliatory interactions.
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Cuba says yes – Castro rhetoric proves
| 846 | 38 | 514 | 130 | 7 | 81 | 0.053846 | 0.623077 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,408 |
Under the radar, diplomats on both sides describe a sea change in the tone of their dealings. Only last year, Cuban state television was broadcasting grainy footage of American diplomats meeting with dissidents on Havana streets and publically accusing them of being CIA front-men. Today, U.S. diplomats in Havana and Cuban Foreign Ministry officials have easy contact, even sharing home phone numbers. Josefina Vidal, Cuba’s top diplomat for North American affairs, recently traveled to Washington and met twice with State Department officials — a visit that came right before the announcements of resumptions in the two sets of bilateral talks that had been suspended for more than two years. Washington has also granted visas to prominent Cuban officials, including the daughter of Cuba’s president. “These recent steps indicate a desire on both sides to try to move forward, but also a recognition on both sides of just how difficult it is to make real progress,” said Robert Pastor, a professor of international relations at American University and former national security adviser on Latin America during the Carter administration. “These are tiny, incremental gains, and the prospects of going backwards are equally high.” Among the things that have changed, John Kerry has taken over as U.S. secretary of state after being an outspoken critic of Washington’s policy on Cuba while in the Senate. President Barack Obama no longer has re-election concerns while dealing with the Cuban-American electorate in Florida, where there are also indications of a warming attitude to negotiating with Cuba. Castro, meanwhile, is striving to overhaul the island’s Marxist economy with a dose of limited free-market capitalism and may feel a need for more open relations with the U.S. While direct American investment is still barred on the island, a rise in visits and money transfers by Cuban-Americans since Obama relaxed restrictions has been a boon for Cuba’s cash-starved economy. Under the table, Cuban-Americans are also helping relatives on the island start private businesses and refurbish homes bought under Castro’s limited free-market reforms. Several prominent Cuban dissidents have been allowed to travel recently due to Castro’s changes. The trips have been applauded by Washington, and also may have lessened Havana’s worries about the threat posed by dissidents. Likewise, a U.S. federal judge’s decision to allow Cuban spy Rene Gonzalez to return home was met with only muted criticism inside the United States, perhaps emboldening U.S. diplomats to seek further openings with Cuba. To be sure, there is still far more that separates the long-time antagonists than unites them. The State Department has kept Cuba on a list of state sponsors of terrorism and another that calls into question Havana’s commitment to fighting human trafficking. The Obama administration continues to demand democratic change on an island ruled for more than a half century by Castro and his brother Fidel. For its part, Cuba continues to denounce Washington’s 51-year-old economic embargo. And then there is Gross, the 64-year-old Maryland native who was arrested in 2009 and is serving a 15-year jail sentence for bringing communications equipment to the island illegally. His case has scuttled efforts at engagement in the past, and could do so again, U.S. officials say privately. Cuba has indicated it wants to trade Gross for four Cuban agents serving long jail terms in the United States, something Washington has said it won’t consider. Ted Henken, a professor of Latin American studies at Baruch College in New York who helped organize a recent U.S. tour by Cuban dissident blogger Yoani Sanchez, said the Obama administration is too concerned with upsetting Cuban-American politicians and has missed opportunities to engage with Cuba at a crucial time in its history. 2 of 2 “I think that a lot more would have to happen for this to amount to momentum leading to any kind of major diplomatic breakthrough,” he said. “Obama should be bolder and more audacious.” Even these limited moves have sparked fierce criticism by those long opposed to engagement. Cuban-American congressman Mario Diaz Balart, a Florida Republican, called the recent overtures “disturbing.” “Rather than attempting to legitimize the Cuban people’s oppressors, the administration should demand that the regime stop harboring fugitives from U.S. justice, release all political prisoners and American humanitarian aid worker Alan Gross, end the brutal, escalating repression against the Cuban people, and respect basic human rights,” he said. Another Cuban-American politician from Florida, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, scolded Obama for seeking “dialogue with the dictatorship.” Despite that rhetoric, many experts think Obama would face less political fallout at home if he chose engagement because younger Cuban-Americans seem more open to improved ties than those who fled immediately after the 1959 revolution. Of 10 Cuban-Americans interview by The Associated Press on Thursday at the popular Miami restaurant Versailles, a de facto headquarters of the exile community, only two said they were opposed to the U.S. holding migration talks. Several said they hoped for much more movement. Jose Gonzalez, 55, a shipping industry supervisor who was born in Cuba and came to the U.S. at age 12, said he now favors an end to the embargo and the resumption of formal diplomatic ties. “There was a reason that existed but it doesn’t anymore,” he said. Santiago Portal, a 65-year-old engineer who moved to the U.S. 45 years ago, said more dialogue would be good. “The more exchange of all types the closer Cuba will be to democracy,” he said. Those opinions dovetail with a 2011 poll by Florida International University of 648 randomly selected Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County that said 58 percent favored re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba. That was a considerable increase from a survey in 1993, when 80 percent of people polled said they did not support trade or diplomatic relations with Cuba. “In general, there is an open attitude, certainly toward re-establishing diplomatic relations,” said Jorge Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University. “Short of perhaps lifting the embargo ... there seems to be increasing support for some sort of understanding with the Cuban government.”
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Washington Post 6/21/13 (“Cuba, US take cautious steps toward rapprochement, but long, complicated path lies ahead”, Washington Post, 6/21/13, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-06-21/world/40105268_1_u-s-diplomats-cuba-s-cubans, AD: 7/10/13, AK)
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diplomats on both sides describe a change in tone of their dealings , U.S. diplomats in Havana and Cuban Foreign Ministry officials have easy contact Cuba’s top diplomat for North American affairs traveled to Washington met with State Department officials a visit that came right before the announcements of resumptions of bilateral talks These steps indicate a desire on both sides to try to move forward Kerry has taken over as U.S. secretary of state after being an outspoken critic of Washington’s policy on Cuba while in the Senate Obama no longer has re-election concerns while dealing with the Cuban-American electorate in Florida there are indications of a warming attitude to negotiating with Cuba. Castro is striving to overhaul the island’s Marxist economy with free-market capitalism and may need more open relations with the U.S a rise in visits and money transfers by Cuban-Americans since Obama relaxed restrictions has been a boon for Cuba’s cash-starved economy. a federal judge’s decision to allow Cuban spy Gonzalez was met with only muted criticism inside the United States, perhaps emboldening U.S. diplomats to seek further openings with Cuba. Obama should be bolder and more audacious Obama would face less political fallout at home if he chose engagement because younger Cuban-Americans seem more open to improved ties than those who fled immediately after the 1959 revolution. 58 percent favored re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba That was a considerable increase from a survey in 1993, when 80 percent of people polled said they did not support trade or diplomatic relations with Cuba. In general, there is an open attitude, certainly toward re-establishing diplomatic relations said Duany, director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University
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Cuba says yes – they’re open to US cooperation related to the embargo
| 6,409 | 69 | 1,805 | 1,001 | 13 | 281 | 0.012987 | 0.280719 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,409 |
From an image stand point repealing the sanctions and removing the embargo is symbolic. It shows Cuba and the world that although the United States is pro democracy, it does not wish to impose its values on other nations. The Cuba Democracy Act was an attempt to force democratic changes in Cuba.10 By repealing the act the United States, illustrates that it respects the sovereignty of nations. Considering that this Act did allow for the application of U.S. law in a foreign country11, repealing it not only sends the message about U.S. views on sovereignty but also shows that the administration is taking steps to ensure that sovereignty is actually respected. Repealing the Helms-Burton Law will certainly stimulate foreign investment in Cuba as well. Many foreign countries were leery of investing in Cuba out of fear of being sued or losing property under the provisions established by the Helms-Burton Act.12 This return of foreign investment will further secure Cuba's place in the global marketplace. It also will help to silence skeptics who will question U.S. intentions. Since the sanctions against Cuba were unilateral U.S. actions, an unsolicited change in course will undoubtedly spark speculation. Allowing all countries to invest in Cuba again underscores the United States' position of desiring for all countries to participate in the global market place. It is difficult to imagine that the benefits of lifting the embargo will not be immediate and substantial in regards to the United States reputation in the world. Looking at the long-term benefits of removing the sanctions, the two benefits that stand out the most are trade and fuel.
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Holmes 10 (Michael G. Holmes, MA The School of Continuing Studies, Georgetown, “SEIZING THE MOMENT,” June 21, 2010, Georgetown, https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/bitstream/handle/10822/553334/holmesMichael.pdf?sequence=1, AD 7/10/13, AK)
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repealing the sanctions and removing the embargo is symbolic. It shows Cuba and the world that although the United States is pro democracy, it does not wish to impose its values on other nations. Repealing the Helms-Burton Law will certainly stimulate foreign investment in Cuba as well This return of foreign investment will further secure Cuba's place in the global marketplace. Allowing all countries to invest in Cuba again underscores the United States' position of desiring for all countries to participate in the global market place. It is difficult to imagine that the benefits of lifting the embargo will not be immediate and substantial in regards to the United States reputation in the world. Looking at the long-term benefits of removing the sanctions, the two benefits that stand out the most are trade and fuel.
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Repeal creates immediate and substantial benefits for the US’s image – key to solve hegemony
| 1,662 | 93 | 828 | 268 | 15 | 135 | 0.05597 | 0.503731 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,410 |
Yes, more American dollars would end up in the coffers of the Cuban government, but dollars would also go to private Cuban citizens. Philip Peters, a former State Department official in the Reagan administration and expert on Cuba, argues that American tourists would boost the earnings of Cubans who rent rooms, drive taxis, sell art, and operate restaurants in their homes. Those dollars would then find their way to the hundreds of freely priced farmer’s markets, to carpenters, repairmen, tutors, food venders, and other entrepreneurs. Second, restrictions on remittances should be lifted. Like tourism, expanded remittances would fuel the private sector, encourage Cuba’s modest economic reforms, and promote independence from the government. Third, American farmers and medical suppliers should be allowed to sell their products to Cuba with financing arranged by private commercial lenders, not just for cash as current law permits. Most international trade is financed by temporary credit, and private banks, not taxpayers, would bear the risk. I oppose subsidizing exports to Cuba through agencies such as the Export-Import Bank, but I also oppose banning the use of private commercial credit. Finally, the Helms-Burton law should be allowed to expire. The law, like every other aspect of the embargo, has failed to achieve its stated objectives and has, in fact, undermined American influence in Cuba and alienated our allies. Lifting or modifying the embargo would not be a victory for Fidel Castro or his oppressive regime. It would be an overdue acknowledgement that the four-and-a-half decade embargo has failed, and that commercial engagement is the best way to encourage more open societies abroad. The U.S. government can and should continue to criticize the Cuban government’s abuse of human rights in the U.N. and elsewhere, while allowing expanding trade and tourism to undermine Castro’s authority from below. We should apply the president’s sound reasoning on trade in general to our policy toward Cuba. The most powerful force for change in Cuba will not be more sanctions, but more daily interaction with free people bearing dollars and new ideas. How many decades does the U.S. government need to bang its head against a wall before it changes a failed policy?
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Griswold 05 (Daniel Griswold is director of the Cato Institute's Center for Trade Policy Studies, “Four Decades of Failure: The U.S. Embargo against Cuba”, October 12, 2005, http://www.cato.org/publications/speeches/four-decades-failure-us-embargo-against-cuba, accessed 7/10/13, AK)
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restrictions on remittances should be lifted. Like tourism, expanded remittances would fuel the private sector, encourage Cuba’s modest economic reforms, and promote independence from the government. the Helms-Burton law should be allowed to expire. The law, like every other aspect of the embargo, has failed to achieve its stated objectives and has, in fact, undermined American influence in Cuba and alienated our allies. Lifting or modifying the embargo would be an overdue acknowledgement that the four-and-a-half decade embargo has failed, and that commercial engagement is the best way to encourage more open societies abroad. The U.S. government can and should continue to criticize the Cuban government’s abuse of human rights in the U.N. and elsewhere, while allowing expanding trade and tourism to undermine Castro’s authority from below. The most powerful force for change in Cuba will not be more sanctions, but more daily interaction with free people bearing dollars and new ideas.
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The embargo stands in the way of major regional hegemony – plan would cement US leadership in the Caribbean for the long term
| 2,285 | 125 | 995 | 360 | 23 | 152 | 0.063889 | 0.422222 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,411 |
In light of the UN Secretary-General’s report on the U.S. embargo of Cuba, and in advance of Tuesday’s vote against it, we offer a series of statements from a variety of sources–including a retired General, Ronald Reagan’s Agriculture Secretary, an environmentalist, a physician, an actor/human rights advocate, several scholars, and one of Washington’s leading voices on foreign policy–on why the U.S. should end the embargo. We hope you read them all. The embargo undermines U.S. foreign policy interests “Failure of the U.S. to finally snuff out the last vestiges of the Cold War in the U.S.-Cuba embargo signals impotence in American strategic vision and capability. Those who support the embargo undermine the empowerment of Cuban citizens, harming them economically and robbing them of choices that could evolve through greater engagement – exactly what we have seen in transitioning Communist countries like Vietnam and China. The world is dismayed and rejects yet again America’s nonsensical embargo, which ultimately makes the U.S. look strategically muddled and petty rather than a leader committed to improving the global order.” Steve Clemons, Washington Editor-at-Large, The Atlantic Senior Fellow & Founder, American Strategy Program New America Foundation The embargo hurts U.S. national security interests “The U.S. embargo against Cuba is a Cold War relic that hurts America and Cuba by preventing normal trade and travel between our two countries. From the perspective of U.S. national security, not only does the embargo prevent our cooperation with Cuba on common security issues such as crime and terrorism, it hurts U.S. standing throughout the world by highlighting our aggression against a neighboring country that poses no threat. The United States demeans itself by this futile and hypocritical policy. It is long past time to repeal the U.S. embargo against Cuba.”
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Hansing 11 (Katrin, Associate Professor of Black and Hispanic Studies at Baruch College, “10 Reasons to Oppose the Embargo”, Center for Democracy in the Americas, October 21 2011, http://www.democracyinamericas.org/blog-post/10-reasons-to-oppose-the-embargo/, AD: 7/11/13, AK)
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The embargo undermines U.S. foreign policy interests “Failure of the U.S. to finally snuff out the last vestiges of the Cold War in the U.S.-Cuba embargo signals impotence in American strategic vision and capability. . The world is dismayed and rejects yet again America’s nonsensical embargo, which ultimately makes the U.S. look strategically muddled and petty rather than a leader committed to improving the global order.” The U.S. embargo hurts America From the perspective of U.S. national security, not only does the embargo prevent our cooperation with Cuba on common security issues such as crime and terrorism, it hurts U.S. standing throughout the world by highlighting our aggression against a neighboring country that poses no threat. The United States demeans itself by this futile and hypocritical policy. It is long past time to repeal the U.S. embargo against Cuba.”
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The embargo undermines US influence and soft power
| 1,891 | 50 | 882 | 291 | 8 | 139 | 0.027491 | 0.477663 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,412 |
The U.S. government has waged economic war against the Castro regime for half a century. The policy may have been worth a try during the Cold War, but the embargo has failed to liberate the Cuban people. It is time to end sanctions against Havana. Decades ago the Castro brothers lead a revolt against a nasty authoritarian, Fulgencio Batista. After coming to power in 1959, they created a police state, targeted U.S. commerce, nationalized American assets, and allied with the Soviet Union. Although Cuba was but a small island nation, the Cold War magnified its perceived importance. Washington reduced Cuban sugar import quotas in July 1960. Subsequently U.S. exports were limited, diplomatic ties were severed, travel was restricted, Cuban imports were banned, Havana’s American assets were frozen, and almost all travel to Cuba was banned. Washington also pressed its allies to impose sanctions. These various measures had no evident effect, other than to intensify Cuba’s reliance on the Soviet Union. Yet the collapse of the latter nation had no impact on U.S. policy. In 1992, Congress banned American subsidiaries from doing business in Cuba and in 1996, it penalized foreign firms that trafficked in expropriated U.S. property. Executives from such companies even were banned from traveling to America. On occasion Washington relaxed one aspect or another of the embargo, but in general continued to tighten restrictions, even over Cuban Americans. Enforcement is not easy, but Uncle Sam tries his best. For instance, according to the Government Accountability Office, Customs and Border Protection increased its secondary inspection of passengers arriving from Cuba to reflect an increased risk of embargo violations after the 2004 rule changes, which, among other things, eliminated the allowance for travelers to import a small amount of Cuban products for personal consumption. “ Lifting sanctions would be a victory not for Fidel Castro, but for the power of free people to spread liberty.” Three years ago, President Barack Obama loosened regulations on Cuban Americans, as well as telecommunications between the United States and Cuba. However, the law sharply constrains the president’s discretion. Moreover, UN Ambassador Susan Rice said that the embargo will continue until Cuba is free. It is far past time to end the embargo. During the Cold War, Cuba offered a potential advanced military outpost for the Soviet Union. Indeed, that role led to the Cuban missile crisis. With the failure of the U.S.-supported Bay of Pigs invasion, economic pressure appeared to be Washington’s best strategy for ousting the Castro dictatorship. However, the end of the Cold War left Cuba strategically irrelevant. It is a poor country with little ability to harm the United States. The Castro regime might still encourage unrest, but its survival has no measurable impact on any important U.S. interest. The regime remains a humanitarian travesty, of course. Nor are Cubans the only victims: three years ago the regime jailed a State Department contractor for distributing satellite telephone equipment in Cuba. But Havana is not the only regime to violate human rights. Moreover, experience has long demonstrated that it is virtually impossible for outsiders to force democracy. Washington often has used sanctions and the Office of Foreign Assets Control currently is enforcing around 20 such programs, mostly to little effect. The policy in Cuba obviously has failed. The regime remains in power. Indeed, it has consistently used the embargo to justify its own mismanagement, blaming poverty on America. Observed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: “It is my personal belief that the Castros do not want to see an end to the embargo and do not want to see normalization with the United States, because they would lose all of their excuses for what hasn’t happened in Cuba in the last 50 years.” Similarly, Cuban exile Carlos Saladrigas of the Cuba Study Group argued that keeping the “embargo, maintaining this hostility, all it does is strengthen and embolden the hardliners.” Cuban human rights activists also generally oppose sanctions. A decade ago I (legally) visited Havana, where I met Elizardo Sanchez Santa Cruz, who suffered in communist prisons for eight years. He told me that the “sanctions policy gives the government a good alibi to justify the failure of the totalitarian model in Cuba.”
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Bandow 12 (Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a former special assistant to US president Ronald Reagan, “Time to End the Cuba Embargo”, December 11, 2012, Cato Institute, http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/time-end-cuba-embargo, AD 7/11/13, AK)
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The U.S. has waged economic war against Castro for half a century. The policy may have been worth a try during the Cold War, but the embargo has failed Lifting sanctions would be a victory not for Fidel Castro, but for the power of free people to spread liberty.” It is far past time to end the embargo. , the end of the Cold War left Cuba strategically irrelevant. It is a poor country with little ability to harm the U S The regime remains a humanitarian travesty, of course. Nor are Cubans the only victims: three years ago the regime jailed a State Department contractor for distributing satellite telephone equipment in Cuba. The policy in Cuba obviously has failed. The regime remains in power. Indeed, it has consistently used the embargo to justify its own mismanagement, blaming poverty on America. .” Cuban human rights activists also generally oppose sanctions. A decade ago I (legally) visited Havana, where I met Elizardo Sanchez Santa Cruz, who suffered in communist prisons for eight years. He told me that the “sanctions policy gives the government a good alibi to justify the failure of the totalitarian model in Cuba
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The embargo leads to further human rights abuses in Cuba – they’ll inevitably use it as a scapegoat
| 4,414 | 99 | 1,136 | 700 | 18 | 195 | 0.025714 | 0.278571 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,413 |
Some hard-line skeptics might say that whatever the merits of soft power, it has little role to play in the current war on terrorism. Osama bin Laden and his followers are repelled, not attracted by American culture, values, and policies. Military power was essential in defeating the Taliban government in Afghanistan, and soft power will never convert fanatics. Charles Krauthammer, for example, argued soon after the war in Afghanistan that our swift military victory proved that "the new unilateralism" worked. That is true up to a point, but the skeptics mistake half the answer for the whole solution. Look again at Afghanistan. Precision bombing and Special Forces defeated the Taliban government, but U.S. forces in Afghanistan wrapped up less than a quarter of al Qaeda, a transnational network with cells in sixty countries. The United States cannot bomb al Qaeda cells in Hamburg, Kuala Lumpur, or Detroit. Success against them depends on close civilian cooperation, whether sharing intelligence, coordinating police work across borders, or tracing global financial flows. America's partners cooperate partly out of self-interest, but the inherent attractiveness of U.S. policies can and does influence the degree of cooperation. Equally important, the current struggle against Islamist terrorism is not a clash of civilizations but a contest whose outcome is closely tied to a civil war between moderates and extremists within Islamic civilization. The United States and other advanced democracies will win only if moderate Muslims win, and the ability to attract the moderates is critical to victory. We need to adopt policies that appeal to moderates and to use public diplomacy more effectively to explain our common interests. We need a better strategy for wielding our soft power. We will have to learn better how to combine hard and soft power if we wish to meet the new challenges.
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Joseph S. Nye, former Assistant Secretary of Defense, former Dean of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, “Soft Power and American Foreign Policy,” Political Science Quarterly, 22 June 2004, accessed 9/1/09 http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-2364796/Soft-power-and-American-foreign.html
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Look at Afghanistan. Precision bombing and Special Forces defeated the Taliban government, but U.S. forces in Afghanistan wrapped up less than a quarter of al Qaeda The United States cannot bomb al Qaeda cells in Hamburg, Kuala Lumpur, or Detroit. Success against them depends on close civilian cooperation, whether sharing intelligence, coordinating police work across borders, or tracing global financial flows the inherent attractiveness of U.S. policies can and does influence the degree of cooperation. the current struggle against Islamist terrorism is not a clash of civilizations but a contest whose outcome is closely tied to a civil war between moderates and extremists within Islamic civilization. The United States will win only if moderate Muslims win, and the ability to attract the moderates is critical to victory. We need to adopt policies that appeal to moderates and to use public diplomacy more effectively to explain our common interests
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Soft power is key to engendering public support and global cooperation to solve terrorism
| 1,900 | 89 | 958 | 300 | 14 | 148 | 0.046667 | 0.493333 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,414 |
It is argued that both hard and soft power are important in US foreign policy and in the fight against terrorism. The suppression of terrorism, and the achievement of a variety of other objectives including efforts to promote democracy overseas, require the willing assistance of other nations and peoples. There are places where the US cannot go in search of terrorist leaders. It needs broad cooperation for intelligence gathering and the restriction of terrorist finances. The hard power of military and economic strength is, of course, essential, but the use of 'carrot and stick' alone cannot achieve these objectives. America's neglect of soft power is undermining its ability to persuade and influence others.
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Sharif Shuja, International Studies Program at Victoria University and Honorary Research Associate with the Global Terrorism Research Unit at Monash University, “Why America cannot ignore soft power,” Contemporary Review, Spring 2008, accessed 9/1/09
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The suppression of terrorism, and the achievement of a variety of other objectives including efforts to promote democracy overseas, require the willing assistance of other nations and peoples. There are places where the US cannot go in search of terrorist leaders. It needs broad cooperation for intelligence gathering and the restriction of terrorist finances. the use of 'carrot and stick' alone cannot achieve these objectives.
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Soft power is the only way to beat terrorism – cooperation and public engagement is key
| 716 | 87 | 430 | 113 | 16 | 65 | 0.141593 | 0.575221 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,415 |
North Korea’s duplicity and Iran’s belligerence made it easier for Washington to justify a posture of relative passivity to date, letting the Europeans address Iran and hoping for China to wield its influence with North Korea. Washington has been torn between impulses toward regime change and a strategy of deterrence and reassurance.40 The Bush administration’s laudable Proliferation Security Initiative and its successes in closing down the A.Q. Khan network are directed not at rolling back the proliferation threat posed by North Korea and Iran but at containing them, to prevent onward proliferation. The administration’s policy on Iran has focused almost exclusively on bringing the case to the UN Security Council, as though that were an end in itself. The United States has coalesced world opinion on its non-proliferation goals for Iran and North Korea, but has not succeeded in enunciating a realistic strategy for achieving those goals. If Iran reassesses its belligerent behaviour and becomes amenable to negotiations and it appears US engagement is the missing ingredient that would persuade Iran to forego fissile material production capabilities, then there is more likelihood the Bush administration will do so.41 Washington should be willing to engage with its European allies on a strategy of when and how to bring the full weight of America’s potential carrots into the negotiation process with Iran. Meanwhile, the Europeans will need to be willing to deploy the full weight of the potential sticks they and the United States have at their disposal that may be necessary to persuade Iran to accept a long-term arrangement to foreclose a nuclear-weapons capability. Similarly, a willingness to employ a full range of incentives will be a necessary condition if the Korean Peninsula is ever to be nuclear weapons free. Bringing greater consistency to US policies will be a useful ingredient
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Mark Fitzpatrick, IISS senior fellow for non-proliferation, Survival Vol 48 No 1, Spring 2006, p. 77
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North Korea’s duplicity and Iran’s belligerence made it easier for Washington to justify a posture of relative passivity to date, letting the Europeans address Iran and hoping for China to wield its influence with North Korea The administration’s policy on Iran has focused almost exclusively on bringing the case to the UN Security Council, as though that were an end in itself. The U S has coalesced world opinion on its non-proliferation goals for Iran and North Korea, but has not succeeded in enunciating a realistic strategy for achieving those goals. If Iran becomes amenable to negotiations and it appears US engagement is the missing ingredient that would persuade Iran to forego fissile material production capabilities, then there is more likelihood the Bush administration will do so. Washington should be willing to engage with its European allies on a strategy of when and how to bring the full weight of America’s potential carrots into the negotiation process with Iran. a willingness to employ a full range of incentives will be a necessary condition if the Korean Peninsula is ever to be nuclear weapons free. Bringing greater consistency to US policies will be a useful ingredient
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Soft power is key to effective nonproliferation policy – solves North Korea and Iran
| 1,910 | 84 | 1,199 | 300 | 14 | 195 | 0.046667 | 0.65 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,416 |
Proliferation can only be stopped if countries that worry about their own security have some alternative way of protecting themselves against plausible threats. Only America has the global system of credible military alliances—and deployable military power—to help other countries protect themselves in key unsettled regions such as East Asia and the Middle East. Historically, its security umbrella made it far easier for friends and allies such as Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan not to pursue their own nuclear deterrents, and the same logic generally applies in today’s world for many states. The importance of maintaining strong and credible American alliances as an anchor for the global security order is a major reason why future candidates for office will have to work to keep America engaged abroad. There may be a temptation to retreat into a more isolationist approach to the world, given the difficulties of the Iraq operation in particular, to say nothing of America’s twin budget and trade deficits. But for reasons of preventing nuclear proliferation, among many others, it is important that candidates resist this impulse.
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Kurt M. Campbell, CSIS, and Michael O’Hanlon, Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institute, Hard Power: The New Politics of National Security, 2006, p. 213-4
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Proliferation can only be stopped if countries that worry about their own security have some alternative way of protecting themselves Only America has the global system of credible military alliances—and deployable military power—to help other countries protect themselves in East Asia and the Middle East its security umbrella made it far easier for friends and allies such as Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan not to pursue their own nuclear deterrents, and the same logic generally applies in today’s world for many states There may be a temptation to retreat into a more isolationist approach to the world, given the difficulties of the Iraq operation But for reasons of preventing nuclear proliferation, among many others, it is important that candidates resist this impulse
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Engagement and leadership are key to stemming prolif
| 1,147 | 52 | 785 | 179 | 8 | 123 | 0.044693 | 0.687151 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,417 |
The U.S. culture of openness and innovation will keep this country central in an information age in which networks supplement, if not fully replace, hierarchical power. The United States is well positioned to benefit from such networks and alliances if our leaders follow smart strategies. In structural terms, it matters that the two entities with per-capita income and sophisticated economies similar to that of the United States — Europe and Japan — are both allied with the United States. In terms of balances-of-power resources, that makes a large difference for the net position of American power, but only if U.S. leaders maintain the alliances and institutional cooperation. In addition, in a more positive sum view of power with, rather than over, other countries, Europe and Japan provide the largest pools of resources for dealing with common transnational problems. On the question of absolute — rather than relative — American decline, the United States faces serious domestic problems in debt, secondary education and political gridlock. But these issues are only part of the picture. Of the many possible futures, stronger cases can be made for the positive over the negative. Among the negative futures, the most plausible is one in which the United States overreacts to terrorist attacks by turning inward and closing itself off to the strength it obtains from openness. But barring such mistaken strategies, there are, over a longer term, solutions to the major problems that preoccupy us. Of course, for political or other reasons, such solutions may remain forever out of reach. But it is important to distinguish between situations that have no solutions and those that, at least in principle, can be solved. Decline is a misleading metaphor and, fortunately, President Obama has rejected the suggested strategy of “managing decline.” As a leader in research and development, higher education and entrepreneurial activity, the United States is not in absolute decline, as happened in ancient Rome. In relative terms, there is a reasonable probability that the United States is likely to remain more powerful than any single state in the coming decades. We do not live in a “post-American world,” but neither do we live any longer in the “American era” of the late 20th century. In terms of primacy, the United States will be “first” but not “sole.” No one has a crystal ball, but the National Intelligence Council (which I once chaired) may be correct in its 2012 projection that although the unipolar moment is over, the United States probably will remain first among equals among the other great powers in 2030 because of the multifaceted nature of its power and legacies of its leadership. The power resources of many states and non-state actors will rise in the coming years. U.S. presidents will face an increasing number of issues in which obtaining our preferred outcomes will require power with others as much as power over others. Our leaders’ capacity to maintain alliances and create networks will be an important dimension of our hard and soft power. Simply put, the problem of American power in the 21st century is not one of a poorly specified “decline” or being eclipsed by China but, rather, the “rise of the rest.” The paradox of American power is that even the largest country will not be able to achieve the outcomes it wants without the help of others.
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Nye ’13 Joseph S. Nye Jr., professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, “American power in the 21st century will be defined by the ‘rise of the rest’,” Washington Post, 6/28/2013, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-06-28/opinions/40255646_1_american-power-u-s-economy-united-states
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The U.S. culture of openness and innovation will keep this country central in an information age in which networks supplement, if not fully replace, hierarchical power. The United States is well positioned to benefit from such networks and alliances if our leaders follow smart strategies it matters that the two entities with per-capita income and sophisticated economies similar to that of the United States — Europe and Japan — are both allied with the United States. that makes a large difference for the net position of American power, but only if U.S. leaders maintain the alliances and institutional cooperation. in a more positive sum view of power with, rather than over, other countries, Europe and Japan provide the largest pools of resources for dealing with common transnational problems. We do not live in a “post-American world,” but neither do we live any longer in the “American era” of the late 20th century. In terms of primacy, the United States will be “first” but not “sole.” the National Intelligence Council may be correct in its 2012 projection that although the unipolar moment is over, the United States probably will remain first among equals among the other great powers in 2030 The power resources of many states and non-state actors will rise in the coming years. U.S. presidents will face an increasing number of issues in which obtaining our preferred outcomes will require power with others as much as power over others. Our leaders’ capacity to maintain alliances and create networks will be an important dimension of power the problem of American power in the 21st century is one of the “rise of the rest.” The paradox of American power is that even the largest country will not be able to achieve the outcomes it wants without the help of others.
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Soft power key to corral and maintain support for US primacy amongst the ‘rise of the rest’
| 3,393 | 91 | 1,783 | 558 | 17 | 299 | 0.030466 | 0.535842 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,418 |
The rise in drug resistant infections is comparable to the threat of global warming, according to the chief medical officer for England. Prof Dame Sally Davies said bacteria were becoming resistant to current drugs and there were few antibiotics to replace them. She told a committee of MPs that going for a routine operation could become deadly due to the threat of infection. Experts said it was a global problem and needed much more attention. Antibiotics have been one of the greatest success stories in medicine. However, bacteria are a rapidly adapting foe which find new ways to evade drugs. MRSA rapidly became one of the most feared words in hospitals wards and there are growing reports of resistance in strains of E. coli, tuberculosis and gonorrhoea. Prof Davies said: "It is clear that we might not ever see global warming, the apocalyptic scenario is that when I need a new hip in 20 years I'll die from a routine infection because we've run out of antibiotics." She said there was only one useful antibiotic left to treat gonorrhoea. Possible solutions will be included in her annual report to be published in March. "It is very serious, and it's very serious because we are not using our antibiotics effectively in countries. "There is a broken market model for making new antibiotics, so it's an empty pipeline, so as they become resistant, these bugs, which they would naturally but we're breeding them in because of the way antibiotics are used, there will not be new antibiotics to come." Empty arsenal The World Health Organization has warned the world is heading for a "post-antibiotic era" unless action is taken. It paints a future in which "many common infections will no longer have a cure and, once again, kill unabated". Prof Hugh Pennington, a microbiologist from the University of Aberdeen, said drug resistance was "a very, very serious problem". "We do need to pay much more attention to it. We need resources for surveillance, resources to cope with the problem and to get public information across. But he said it was not a problem entirely of the UK's making. "People are going abroad for operations, going abroad for, let's say, sex tourism and bringing home gonorrhoea which is a big problem in terms of antibiotic resistance - and then there's tuberculosis in many parts of the world. Prof Pennington said the drugs companies had run out of options too as all the easy drugs had been made. "We have to be aware that we aren't going to have new wonder drugs coming along because there just aren't any."
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Gallagher ’13 James Gallagher, “Antibiotic 'apocalypse' warning,” BBC, 1/24/2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-21178718
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The rise in drug resistant infections is comparable to the threat of global warming, according to the chief medical officer for England. bacteria were becoming resistant to current drugs and there were few antibiotics to replace them. Experts said it was a global problem bacteria are a rapidly adapting foe which find new ways to evade drugs. there are growing reports of resistance in strains of E. coli, tuberculosis and gonorrhoea. the apocalyptic scenario is that when I need a new hip in 20 years I'll die from a routine infection because we've run out of antibiotics." There is a broken market model for making new antibiotics, so it's an empty pipeline, so as they become resistant, these bugs, which they would naturally but we're breeding them in because of the way antibiotics are used, there will not be new antibiotics to come." The World Health Organization has warned the world is heading for a "post-antibiotic era" unless action is taken. It paints a future in which "many common infections will no longer have a cure and, once again, kill unabated". "We have to be aware that we aren't going to have new wonder drugs coming along because there just aren't any."
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High probability of disease spread—resistances are dropping globally
| 2,539 | 68 | 1,179 | 435 | 8 | 202 | 0.018391 | 0.464368 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
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Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,419 |
A stable climate enabled the development of modern civilization, global agriculture, and a world that could sustain a vast population. Now, the most comprehensive “Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years” ever done reveals just how stable the climate has been — and just how destabilizing manmade carbon pollution has been and will continue to be unless we dramatically reverse emissions trends. Researchers at Oregon State University (OSU) and Harvard University published their findings today in the journal Science. Their funder, the National Science Foundation, explains in a news release: With data from 73 ice and sediment core monitoring sites around the world, scientists have reconstructed Earth’s temperature history back to the end of the last Ice Age. The analysis reveals that the planet today is warmer than it’s been during 70 to 80 percent of the last 11,300 years. … during the last 5,000 years, the Earth on average cooled about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit–until the last 100 years, when it warmed about 1.3 degrees F. In short, thanks primarily to carbon pollution, the temperature is changing 50 times faster than it did during the time modern civilization and agriculture developed, a time when humans figured out where the climate conditions — and rivers and sea levels — were most suited for living and farming. We are headed for 7 to 11°F warming this century on our current emissions path — increasing the rate of change 5-fold yet again. By the second half of this century we will have some 9 billion people, a large fraction of whom will be living in places that simply can’t sustain them — either because it is too hot and/or dry, the land is no longer arable, their glacially fed rivers have dried up, or the seas have risen too much. We could keep that warming close to 4°F — and avoid the worst consequences — but only with immediate action.
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Romm ’13 Joe Romm, “Bombshell: Recent Warming Is ‘Amazing And Atypical’ And Poised To Destroy Stable Climate That Enabled Civilization,” Climate Progress, 3/8/2013, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/08/1691411/bombshell-recent-warming-is-amazing-and-atypical-and-poised-to-destroy-stable-climate-that-made-civilization-possible/
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the most comprehensive “Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years” ever done reveals just how stable the climate has been — and just how destabilizing manmade carbon pollution has been and will continue to be unless we dramatically reverse emissions trends. Researchers at Oregon State and Harvard published their findings in Science With data from 73 ice and sediment core monitoring sites around the world, scientists have reconstructed Earth’s temperature history back to the end of the last Ice Age. the planet today is warmer than it’s been during 70 to 80 percent of the last 11,300 years. thanks primarily to carbon pollution, the temperature is changing 50 times faster than it did during the time modern civilization and agriculture developed We are headed for 7 to 11°F warming this century on our current emissions path — increasing the rate of change 5-fold yet again. By the second half of this century we will have some 9 billion people, a large fraction of whom will be living in places that simply can’t sustain them — either because it is too hot and/or dry, the land is no longer arable, their glacially fed rivers have dried up, or the seas have risen too much. We could keep that warming close to 4°F — and avoid the worst consequences — but only with immediate action.
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Warming is real and accelerating—action now key to mitigate impacts
| 1,903 | 67 | 1,323 | 321 | 10 | 227 | 0.031153 | 0.707165 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
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Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,420 |
The dramatic attack in Algeria this month on a natural gas facility underscores the emergence of a new generation of al-Qaeda across the Arab world, "al-Qaeda 3.0" or the movement's third generation. Despite Osama of bin Laden's death, al-Qaeda has exploited the Arab Awakening to create is largest safe havens and operational bases in more than a decade across the Arab world. This may prove to be the most deadly al-Qaeda yet. And at the center of the new al-Qaeda remains the old al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri still hiding in Pakistan and still providing strategic direction to the global jihad. The first generation of al-Qaeda was the original band in Afghanistan created by bin Laden in the 1990s. The second emerged after 9/11 when the group re-emerged in Pakistan, Iraq and then across the Muslim world. Now a third iteration can be discerned in the wake of bin Laden’s killing by U.S. Special Forces and the Arab Awakening. The fastest growing new al-Qaeda is in Syria. Using the cover name Jabhat al-Nusrah, al-Qaeda has become perhaps the most lethal element of the opposition to Bashar al-Assad’s brutal dictatorship. For al-Qaeda, Assad and the Alawis are a perfect target since many Sunnis believe Alawis to be a deviationist sect of Islam that should be suppressed. While al-Qaeda is only a part of the opposition in Syria, it brings unique skills in bomb making and suicide operations. Every week it gets stronger and better armed. Now jihadist websites are reporting every day that new al-Qaeda "martyrs" from Saudi Arabia, Palestine and Egypt have died in the fighting in Damascus and Aleppo. Reliable reports from journalists speak of bands of jihadists operating in Syria with a loose affiliation to al-Qaeda and composed of Muslim fanatics from as far away as Pakistan, Bangladesh and elsewhere. The Syrian al-Qaeda franchise has sought to learn from the mistakes of the earlier al-Qaeda generations. It avoids open association with the brand name and seeks to work with other Sunni groups. It is well armed, uses bases in Iraq for support and supply, and benefits from weapons supplied by Qatar and Saudi Arabia to the opposition. Its leader uses the nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al Golani, a reference to the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights The longer the civil war in Syria goes on, the more al-Qaeda will benefit from the chaos and the sectarian polarization. It will also benefit from the spillover of violence from Syria into Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan that is now inevitable. Like the rest of the world, al-Qaeda was surprised by the revolutions that toppled dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. Its ideology of violence and jihad was initially challenged by the largely nonviolent revolutionary movements that swept across North Africa and the Middle East. But al Qaeda is an adaptive organization and it has exploited the chaos and turmoil of revolutionary change to create operational bases and new strongholds. In North Africa, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) — originally an Algerian franchise of the global terror organization — has successfully aligned itself with a local extremist group in Mali named Ansar Dine, or Defenders of the Faith, and together they have effectively taken control of the northern two-thirds of Mali. When they tried to march on the capital, Bamako, France finally intervened with jets and troops. AQIM is also at work in Libya, especially around Benghazi. A faction of al-Qaeda led by Mokhtar Belmokhtar staged the Algerian attack from Libya. Belmokhtar is a first-generation al-Qaeda leader who has survived. He began his career in Afghanistan with the legendary jihadist thinker Abdullah Azzam in the late 1980s. He is an avowed admirer of the Jordanian founder of al-Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al Zarqawi, who took Iraq to the edge of civil war in 2006. In Egypt, another third-generation al-Qaeda jihadist stronghold is in the desert of the Sinai Peninsula. Long a depressed and angry backwater in Egypt, after the revolution that toppled President Hosni Mubarak, disaffected Bedouin tribes in the Sinai cooperated with released jihadist prisoners to begin attacks on security installations and the Egypt-Israel gas pipeline. The jihadists in the Sinai have pledged their allegiance to Zawahiri and Zawahiri has repeatedly endorsed their attacks on Israeli targets. In Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) exploited the fall of Ali Abdullah Saleh’s dictatorship to take over remote parts of the south and east of the country. It lost control of several towns to government counterattacks last summer but it struck back with deadly attacks on security targets in Sanaa, Aden and other major cities. Increasingly drones are attacking AQAP in the deserts of Yemen, most famously killing its American-born operative Anwar al Awlaki, but group is resilient. Iraq’s al-Qaeda franchise is the essence of resilience. The 2007 surge was supposed to destroy al-Qaeda’s franchise, the Islamic state of Iraq, but it didn’t. Despite enormous pressure and the repeated decapitation of its senior leadership, the group has survived and recovered. It appeals to the Sunni Arab minority which feels oppressed by the Shiite-dominated government. Al-Qaeda in Iraq has rebuilt its sanctuaries in some Sunni regions and its leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, has promised more attacks in Iraq and in the United States. The third generation of al-Qaeda's success in capitalizing on revolutionary change in the Arab world comes despite a lack of broad popular support. Al-Qaeda 3.0 remains an extreme movement that appeals only to a small minority, but terrorism is not a popularity contest. Al-Qaeda today is stronger at the operational level in the Arab world than it has been in years. Back in Pakistan, the old al-Qaeda leadership, what jihadists call al Qaeda al Um or "mother al-Qaeda" is rebuilding. Since President Barack Obama came to office in 2009, there have been almost 300 lethal drone strikes in Pakistan flown from bases in Afghanistan, most of which targeted al-Qaeda operatives. Along with the raid on Abbottabad that killed bin Laden in 2011, the offensive has put it on the defensive. But it is not dead, nor alone. Al-Qaeda’s allies in Pakistan, such as Lashkar-e Tayyiba — the group that attacked Mumbai in 2008 — and the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, are under little or no pressure and are helping the mother ship recover. Zawahiri regularly issues statements ordering the faithful to go to Syria or Mali to fight. His orders are obeyed as there is no challenger to his authority. AQ 3.0 is a complex and decentralized enemy that requires strategies tailored to each franchise. There is no one answer to each challenge. There is no "strategic defeat” of al-Qaeda in sight.
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Riedel 13 (Bruce, Senior Fellow for Middle East Policy at Brookings, professor of South Asian Studies at Johns Hopkins, and senior advisor on Mid East Policy to the last four US presidents. “New Al-Qaeda Generation May Be Deadliest One” Brookings 1/24/13 http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/01/24-al-qaeda-riedel?rssid=riedelb&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BrookingsRSS%2Fexperts%2Friedelb+%28Brookings+Experts+-+Bruce+Riedel%29&utm_content=Google+Reader) will
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The dramatic attack in Algeria this month on a natural gas facility underscores the emergence of a new generation of al-Qaeda Despite bin Laden's death, al-Qaeda has exploited the Arab Awakening to create is largest safe havens and operational bases in more than a decade across the Arab world. This may prove to be the most deadly al-Qaeda yet The fastest growing new al-Qaeda is in Syria. Every week it gets stronger and better armed. , al-Qaeda was surprised by the revolutions that toppled dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen But al Qaeda is an adaptive organization and it has exploited the chaos and turmoil of revolutionary change to create operational bases and new strongholds. In North Africa, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) successfully aligned itself with a local extremist group in Mali AQIM is also at work in Libya and In Yemen AQAP) exploited the fall of Saleh’s dictatorship to take over remote parts of the south and east of the country AQAP is resilient. Iraq’s al-Qaeda franchise is the essence of resilience. The surge was supposed to destroy al-Qaeda’s franchise but it didn’t. Despite enormous pressure and the repeated decapitation of its senior leadership, the group has survived and recovered Al-Qaeda in Iraq has promised more attacks in Iraq and in the United States. Al-Qaeda 3.0 remains an extreme movement that appeals only to a small minority, but terrorism is not a popularity contest. Al-Qaeda today is stronger at the operational level in the Arab world than it has been in years. in Pakistan, the old al-Qaeda leadership is rebuilding But it is not dead, nor alone allies in Pakistan are under little or no pressure and are helping the mother ship recover There is no "strategic defeat” of al-Qaeda in sight.
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Terrorist threat is high – no strategic defeat – Al-Qaeda attacks will only get worse
| 6,767 | 85 | 1,761 | 1,105 | 15 | 296 | 0.013575 | 0.267873 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,421 |
The United States is the only nation that still has a trade embargo against Cuba. After four decades, it's clear that our policy has failed to achieve its goals: the end of Fidel Castro's regime and a peaceful transition to democracy. Today, Cuba remains under totalitarian rule, with Castro still firmly in power. The real victims of our policies are the 11 million innocent Cuban men, women, and children. Our embargo has exacerbated already-miserable living conditions for Cuban citizens. Cuba's economy has suffered because it is prohibited from exporting goods to the U.S. In addition, most Cubans have very limited access to American products. Moreover, our policies restrict Americans' right to travel freely to Cuba, making exchange between our two cultures essentially impossible. There are many other countries whose governments are not freely elected. Yet none of our policies toward these nations resemble our treatment of Cuba. With the Cold War over and Cuba posing no threat to the U.S.. there is no justification for our outdated approach to Cuba. To make matters worse, we are spending extraordinary resources to enforce the embargo resources that could be used to secure our nation against terrorism. It's time for a fundamental change in our Cuba policy. We can start by ending the trade embargo and by lifting the ban on travel to Cuba by American citizens. Only by engaging the Cuban people, and by building bridges between our citizens and theirs, will we succeed in bringing freedom and democracy to our neighbor.
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Dodd (NO DATE) (Christopher J. Dodd, Former US Senator from Connecticut, “Should the U.S End its Cuba Embargo?” http://www.scholastic.com/teachers/article/should-us-end-its-cuba-embargo, AD: 7/10/13, AK)
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After four decades, it's clear that our policy has failed to achieve its goals: the end of Fidel Castro's regime and a peaceful transition to democracy. Cuba remains under totalitarian rule, The real victims of our policies are the 11 million innocent Cuban We can start by ending the trade embargo and by lifting the ban on travel to Cuba by American citizens. Only by engaging the Cuban people, and by building bridges between our citizens and theirs, will we succeed in bringing freedom and democracy to our neighbor.
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Only engaging in economic activity with Cuba will lead to democratization in Cuba.
| 1,536 | 83 | 520 | 250 | 13 | 89 | 0.052 | 0.356 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,422 |
HAVANA TIMES (dpa) – The UN General Assembly on Tuesday renewed a demand that the United States lift the economic embargo imposed on Cuba since the 1960s. The 193-nation assembly voted 188-3 to adopt an annual resolution, for the 21st consecutive year, calling for UN members to consider the US embargo against Cuba as illegal and respect international law that reaffirms freedom of trade and navigation. Last year’s vote was 186-2. The United States, Israel and Palau voted against the resolution, while the Marshall Islands and Micronesia abstained. Washington has rejected the repeated UN demands to end the embargo. But it has also improved ties with Havana and allowed US citizens to travel to Cuba. The resolution, like in previous ones, asked all states that have been implementing the US embargo “to take the necessary steps to repeal or invalidate them as soon as possible in accordance with their legal regime.” The economic embargo against Cuba was strengthened by US President John F Kennedy in February 1962 following the failure of US-backed Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba. The US embargo was further boosted in 1996 by the Helms-Burton Act with the US Congress demanding compliance by all companies with regard to trade and navigation with Cuba.
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Havana Times 12 (“Cuba Embargo Blasted Again at UN 188-3”, Havana Times, November 13 2012, http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=82054, AD: 7/10/13, AK)
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The UN General Assembly voted for the 21st consecutive year, calling for UN members to consider the US embargo against Cuba as illegal and respect international law that reaffirms freedom of trade and navigation. Last year’s vote was 186-2. The resolution, like in previous ones, asked all states that have been implementing the US embargo “to take the necessary steps to repeal or invalidate them as soon as possible in accordance with their legal regime.”
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International community supports the plan – no risk of blowback
| 1,258 | 63 | 457 | 207 | 10 | 75 | 0.048309 | 0.362319 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,423 |
The administration should move now, before congressmen are focused on the next election. President Obama should propose legislation to drop (or at least significantly loosen) the embargo. He also could use his authority to relax sanctions by, for instance, granting more licenses to visit the island. Ending the embargo would have obvious economic benefits for both Cubans and Americans. The U.S. International Trade Commission estimates American losses alone from the embargo as much as $1.2 billion annually. Expanding economic opportunities also might increase pressure within Cuba for further economic reform. So far the regime has taken small steps, but rejected significant change. Moreover, thrusting more Americans into Cuban society could help undermine the ruling system. Despite Fidel Castro’s decline, Cuban politics remains largely static. A few human rights activists have been released, while Raul Castro has used party purges to entrench loyal elites. Lifting the embargo would be no panacea. Other countries invest in and trade with Cuba to no obvious political impact. And the lack of widespread economic reform makes it easier for the regime rather than the people to collect the benefits of trade, in contrast to China. Still, more U.S. contact would have an impact. Argued trade specialist Dan Griswold, “American tourists would boost the earnings of Cubans who rent rooms, drive taxis, sell art, and operate restaurants in their homes. Those dollars would then find their way to the hundreds of freely priced farmers markets, to carpenters, repairmen, tutors, food venders, and other entrepreneurs.” The Castro dictatorship ultimately will end up in history’s dustbin. But it will continue to cause much human hardship along the way. The Heritage Foundation’s John Sweeney complained nearly two decades ago that “the United States must not abandon the Cuban people by relaxing or lifting the trade embargo against the communist regime.” But the dead hand of half a century of failed policy is the worst breach of faith with the Cuban people. Lifting sanctions would be a victory not for Fidel Castro, but for the power of free people to spread liberty. As Griswold argued, “commercial engagement is the best way to encourage more open societies abroad.” Of course, there are no guarantees. But lifting the embargo would have a greater likelihood of success than continuing a policy which has failed. Some day the Cuban people will be free. Allowing more contact with Americans likely would make that day come sooner.
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Bandow 12 (Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a former special assistant to US president Ronald Reagan, “Time to End the Cuba Embargo”, December 11, 2012, Cato Institute, http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/time-end-cuba-embargo, AD 7/11/13, AK)
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The administration should move now, Obama should propose legislation to drop the embargo. Ending the embargo would have obvious economic benefits for both Cubans and Americans. The U.S. International Trade Commission estimates American losses alone from the embargo as much as $1.2 billion annually. Expanding economic opportunities also might increase pressure within Cuba for further economic reform. Moreover, thrusting more Americans into Cuban society could help undermine the ruling system. more U.S. contact would have an impact. Argued trade specialist Dan Griswold, “American tourists would boost the earnings of Cubans who rent rooms, drive taxis, sell art, and operate restaurants in their homes. Those dollars would then find their way to the hundreds of freely priced farmers markets, to carpenters, repairmen, tutors, food venders, and other entrepreneurs.” The Castro dictatorship ultimately will end up in history’s dustbin. As Griswold argued, “commercial engagement is the best way to encourage more open societies abroad Some day the Cuban people will be free. Allowing more contact with Americans likely would make that day come sooner.
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Lifting the embargo creates immediate international economic ties and leads to democracy in Cuba
| 2,538 | 96 | 1,156 | 401 | 14 | 172 | 0.034913 | 0.428928 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,424 |
§ 3.3: The current policy may drag the United States into a military conflict with Cuba. Military conflict may be inevitable in the future if the embargo’s explicit goal — creating an insurrection in Cuba to overthrow the government — is achieved, and the United States may not be ready to step in. As Ratliff and Fontaine detail, “Americans are not prepared to commit the military resources […]” (Fontaine 57), especially after unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Much like America’s current situation with isolated rogue states such as Iran and North Korea, Cuba’s isolation may also lead to war for other reasons, like the American occupation of Guantanamo Bay. These consequences are inherently counterproductive for the democratization of Cuba and the improvement of human rights.
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Amash 12 (Brandon Amash, writer at the Prospect Journal, (“EVALUATING THE CUBAN EMBARGO,” 7/23/12, http://prospectjournal.org/2012/07/23/evaluating-the-cuban-embargo/, AD: 7/12/13, AK)
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The current policy may drag the U S into a military conflict with Cuba. Military conflict may be inevitable if the embargo’s goal creating an insurrection is achieved, and the U S may not be ready Cuba’s isolation may also lead to war for other reasons, like the American occupation of Guantanamo Bay. These consequences are inherently counterproductive for democratization and human rights
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Continuation of current Cuba policy risks war, further human rights abuses and a backslide from democratic progress
| 789 | 115 | 390 | 126 | 17 | 63 | 0.134921 | 0.5 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,425 |
When thinking of U.S.-Cuba relations, the trade embargo, or el bloqueo, is first and foremost on people’s minds. In 2009, President Barack Obama eased the travel ban, allowing Cuban-Americans to travel freely to Cuba, and again in 2011, allowing students and religious missionaries to travel to Cuba, as recently demonstrated by American pop culture figures, Beyoncé and her husband Jay-Z. Despite a history of hostile transgressions, the U.S. is inconsistent with its implementation of the embargo, which sends mixed signals to Havana and displays our weak foreign policy regarding Cuba.
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Bustillo ’13 Mitchell Bustillo, “Time to Strengthen the Cuban Embargo,” International Policy Digest, 5/9/2013, http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2013/05/09/time-to-strengthen-the-cuban-embargo/
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Obama eased the travel ban, allowing Cuban-Americans to travel freely to Cuba, and allowing students and religious missionaries to travel to Cuba, as recently demonstrated by Beyoncé and Jay-Z the U.S. is inconsistent with its implementation of the embargo, which sends mixed signals to Havana and displays our weak foreign policy
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Current policy is inconsistent – only a risk positive incentives spur better behavior
| 588 | 85 | 330 | 90 | 13 | 51 | 0.144444 | 0.566667 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,426 |
Some will argue that I am assuming the pose of Dr. Gloom. They are likely to be wrong. For one, the U.S. bond market agrees with my assessment. Since 1975, the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds has averaged 2.2 percentage points higher than that of short-term Treasury bills. Given that the current 30-year Treasury bond yields 3.2 percent per year, the typical financial market participant anticipates that short-term Treasury bill rates will pay out interest at an average of barely more than one percent per year over the next generation. The Federal Reserve keeps the short-term Treasury bill rate at that low level only when the economy is depressed -- when capacity is slack, labor is idle, and the principal risk is deflation rather than inflation. Since World War II, whenever the yield on the short-term Treasury bill has been two percent or lower, the U.S. unemployment rate has averaged eight percent. That is the future the bond market crystal ball sees: a sluggish and depressed economy for perhaps the entire next generation.
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Delong 7/1 J. BRADFORD DELONG, Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Visiting Fellow at the Kauffman Foundation, “The Second Great Depression,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2013 (publication date 7/1/2013) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139464/j-bradford-delong/the-second-great-depression?page=show
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Since 1975, the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds has averaged 2.2 percentage points higher than that of short-term Treasury bills. Given that the current 30-year Treasury bond yields 3.2 percent per year, the typical financial market participant anticipates that short-term Treasury bill rates will pay out interest at an average of barely more than one percent per year over the next generation The Fed keeps the short-term T bill rate at that low level only when the economy is depressed when capacity is slack, labor is idle, and the principal risk is deflation rather than inflation the bond market crystal ball sees a sluggish and depressed economy for perhaps the entire next generation
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US economy is slacking now and government won’t address it
| 1,037 | 58 | 691 | 173 | 10 | 113 | 0.057803 | 0.653179 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
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Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,427 |
While superficially sensible, this view is deeply problematic. To begin with, it ignores the fact that the global economy has in fact been 'America-centred' for more than 60 years. Countries - China, Japan, Canada, Brazil, Korea, Mexico and so on - either sell to the US or they sell to countries that sell to the US. To put it simply, Mr Obama doesn't seem to understand that there is no other engine for the world economy - and hasn't been for the last six decades. If the US does not drive global economic growth, growth is not going to happen. Thus, US policies to deal with the current crisis are critical not just domestically, but also to the entire world. This system has generally been advantageous for all concerned. America gained certain historically unprecedented benefits, but the system also enabled participating countries - first in Western Europe and Japan, and later, many in the Third World - to achieve undreamt-of prosperity. At the same time, this deep inter-connection between the US and the rest of the world also explains how the collapse of a relatively small sector of the US economy - 'sub-prime' housing, logarithmically exponentialised by Wall Street's ingenious chicanery - has cascaded into the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression. To put it simply, Mr Obama doesn't seem to understand that there is no other engine for the world economy - and hasn't been for the last six decades. If the US does not drive global economic growth, growth is not going to happen. Thus, US policies to deal with the current crisis are critical not just domestically, but also to the entire world. Consequently, it is a matter of global concern that the Obama administration seems to be following Japan's 'model' from the 1990s: allowing major banks to avoid declaring massive losses openly and transparently, and so perpetuating 'zombie' banks - technically alive but in reality dead. As analysts like Nobel laureates Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman have pointed out, the administration's unwillingness to confront US banks is the main reason why they are continuing their increasingly inexplicable credit freeze, thus ravaging the American and global economies. Team Obama seems reluctant to acknowledge the extent to which its policies at home are failing not just there but around the world as well. Which raises the question: If the US can't or won't or doesn't want to be the global economic engine, which country will? The obvious answer is China. But that is unrealistic for three reasons. First, China's economic health is more tied to America's than practically any other country in the world. Indeed, the reason China has so many dollars to invest everywhere - whether in US Treasury bonds or in Africa - is precisely that it has structured its own economy to complement America's. The only way China can serve as the engine of the global economy is if the US starts pulling it first. Second, the US-centred system began at a time when its domestic demand far outstripped that of the rest of the world. The fundamental source of its economic power is its ability to act as the global consumer of last resort. China, however, is a poor country, with low per capita income, even though it will soon pass Japan as the world's second largest economy. There are real possibilities for growth in China's domestic demand. But given its structure as an export-oriented economy, it is doubtful if even a successful Chinese stimulus plan can pull the rest of the world along unless and until China can start selling again to the US on a massive scale. Finally, the key 'system' issue for China - or for the European Union - in thinking about becoming the engine of the world economy - is monetary: What are the implications of having your domestic currency become the global reserve currency? This is an extremely complex issue that the US has struggled with, not always successfully, from 1959 to the present. Without going into detail, it can safely be said that though having the US dollar as the world's medium of exchange has given the US some tremendous advantages, it has also created huge problems, both for America and the global economic system. The Chinese leadership is certainly familiar with this history. It will try to avoid the yuan becoming an international medium of exchange until it feels much more confident in its ability to handle the manifold currency problems that the US has grappled with for decades. Given all this, the US will remain the engine of global economic recovery for the foreseeable future, even though other countries must certainly help. This crisis began in the US - and it is going to have to be solved there too.
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Caploe ‘9 David Caploe, CEO of the Singapore-incorporated American Centre for Applied Liberal Arts and Humanities in Asia, “Focus Still on America to Lead Global Recovery” April 2009, online
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the global economy has been 'America-centred' for more than 60 years. Countries either sell to the US or they sell to countries that sell to the US. there is no other engine for the world economy - and hasn't been for the last six decades. If the US does not drive global economic growth, growth is not going to happen policies to deal with the current crisis are critical not just domestically, but also to the entire world this deep inter-connection between the US and the rest of the world also explains how the collapse of a relatively small sector of the US economy - 'sub-prime' housing, has cascaded into the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression. China's economic health is more tied to America's than practically any other country in the world. the reason China has so many dollars to invest everywhere - whether in US Treasury bonds or in Africa - is precisely that it has structured its own economy to complement America's. The only way China can serve as the engine of the global economy is if the US starts pulling it first. the US-centred system began at a time when its domestic demand far outstripped that of the rest of the world. given its structure as an export-oriented economy, it is doubtful if even a successful Chinese stimulus plan can pull the rest of the world along unless and until China can start selling again to the US on a massive scale the US will remain the engine of global economic recovery for the foreseeable future, even though other countries must certainly help. This crisis began in the US - and it is going to have to be solved there too
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US key to global economy
| 4,692 | 24 | 1,599 | 797 | 5 | 287 | 0.006274 | 0.3601 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,428 |
Meanwhile, barring a wholesale revolution in the thinking (or personnel) of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. Congress, so-called activist policies, such as multitrillion-dollar asset purchases or sustained large-scale investments in infrastructure, are not going to be put in place to rescue the economy. Policymakers are too concerned about rising U.S. government debt. Their worries, of course, are misplaced right now, as Blinder well understands. He shares the consensus of reality-based economists that debt accumulation -- whether through the Federal Reserve’s buying government bonds or through the U.S. Treasury’s issuing them -- is not the U.S. economy’s most serious problem as long as interest rates remain low. The deficit hawks seem to have forgotten the basic principle of macroeconomic management: that the government’s job is to ensure that there are sufficient quantities of liquid assets, safe assets, and financial savings vehicles. Over the past several years, this principle has gone out the window. A majority of the voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, which oversees the Federal Reserve’s buying and selling of government bonds, believe that the Fed has already extended its aggressive expansionary policies beyond the bounds of prudence. Blinder rightly disagrees: “The Fed’s hawks seem more worried about the inflation we might get than about the high unemployment we still have. I’m rooting for the doves.” Worse still is the attitude of the U.S. Congress. “America’s budget mess is starting to look Kafkaesque,” Blinder writes, “because the outline of a solution is so clear: we need modest fiscal stimulus today coupled with massive deficit reduction for the future.” Republicans must accept that tax rates will be higher a decade from now, he argues, and Democrats must accept lower government spending than is currently projected. A deficit-reduction package, perhaps in the mold of the Simpson-Bowles plan (a proposal by Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, co-chairs of the president’s deficit commission, that combines spending cuts and tax increases), should be adopted in the future, Blinder argues, but not yet. Blinder is preaching the right message, but he is preaching it to an audience of ravens and vultures. Congress is taking its cues from Steve Martin’s Saturday Night Live character Theodoric of York, Medieval Barber: no matter what the ailment, all the patient needs is another good bleeding. In this case, the tool of bloodletting is rigorous austerity, which only puts further downward pressure on employment and production.
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Delong 7/1 J. BRADFORD DELONG, Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Visiting Fellow at the Kauffman Foundation, “The Second Great Depression,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2013 (publication date 7/1/2013) http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139464/j-bradford-delong/the-second-great-depression?page=show
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barring a wholesale revolution in the thinking (or personnel) of the Federal Reserve and Congress activist policies such as asset purchases or sustained large-scale investments in infrastructure, are not going to be put in place to rescue the economy Policymakers are too concerned about rising U.S. government debt. Their worries are misplaced “America’s budget mess is starting to look Kafkaesque,” Congress is taking its cues from Steve Martin’s Saturday Night Live character Theodoric of York, Medieval Barber: no matter what the ailment, all the patient needs is another good bleeding. In this case, the tool of bloodletting is rigorous austerity, which only puts further downward pressure on employment and production
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Their resiliency warrants don’t assume the current political climate which steadfastly refuses to take action to save the economy
| 2,591 | 129 | 723 | 400 | 19 | 110 | 0.0475 | 0.275 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,429 |
If the economy falls back into recession, as many economists are now warning, the bloodletting could be a lot more painful than the last time around. Given the tumult of the Great Recession, this may be hard to believe. But the economy is much weaker than it was at the outset of the last recession in December 2007, with most major measures of economic health — including jobs, incomes, output and industrial production — worse today than they were back then. And growth has been so weak that almost no ground has been recouped, even though a recovery technically started in June 2009. “It would be disastrous if we entered into a recession at this stage, given that we haven’t yet made up for the last recession,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist at RDQ Economics. When the last downturn hit, the credit bubble left Americans with lots of fat to cut, but a new one would force families to cut from the bone. Making things worse, policy makers used most of the economic tools at their disposal to combat the last recession, and have few options available. Anxiety and uncertainty have increased in the last few days after the decision by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade the country’s credit rating and as Europe continues its desperate attempt to stem its debt crisis. President Obama acknowledged the challenge in his Saturday radio and Internet address, saying the country’s “urgent mission” now was to expand the economy and create jobs. And Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in an interview on CNBC on Sunday that the United States had “a lot of work to do” because of its “long-term and unsustainable fiscal position.” But he added, “I have enormous confidence in the basic regenerative capacity of the American economy and the American people.” Still, the numbers are daunting. In the four years since the recession began, the civilian working-age population has grown by about 3 percent. If the economy were healthy, the number of jobs would have grown at least the same amount. Instead, the number of jobs has shrunk. Today the economy has 5 percent fewer jobs — or 6.8 million — than it had before the last recession began. The unemployment rate was 5 percent then, compared with 9.1 percent today. Even those Americans who are working are generally working less; the typical private sector worker has a shorter workweek today than four years ago. Employers shed all the extra work shifts and weak or extraneous employees that they could during the last recession. As shown by unusually strong productivity gains, companies are now squeezing as much work as they can from their newly “lean and mean” work forces. Should a recession return, it is not clear how many additional workers businesses could lay off and still manage to function. With fewer jobs and fewer hours logged, there is less income for households to spend, creating a huge obstacle for a consumer-driven economy. Adjusted for inflation, personal income is down 4 percent, not counting payments from the government for things like unemployment benefits. Income levels are low, and moving in the wrong direction: private wage and salary income actually fell in June, the last month for which data was available. Consumer spending, along with housing, usually drives a recovery. But with incomes so weak, spending is only barely where it was when the recession began. If the economy were healthy, total consumer spending would be higher because of population growth. And with construction nearly nonexistent and home prices down 24 percent since December 2007, the country does not have a buffer in housing to fall back on. Of all the major economic indicators, industrial production — as tracked by the Federal Reserve — is by far the worst off. The Fed’s index of this activity is nearly 8 percent below its level in December 2007. Likewise, and perhaps most worrisome, is the track record for the country’s overall output. According to newly revised data from the Commerce Department, the economy is smaller today than it was when the recession began, despite (or rather, because of) the feeble growth in the last couple of years. If the economy were healthy, it would be much bigger than it was four years ago. Economists refer to the difference between where the economy is and where it could be if it met its full potential as the “output gap.” Menzie Chinn, an economics professor at the University of Wisconsin, has estimated that the economy was about 7 percent smaller than its potential at the beginning of this year. Unlike during the first downturn, there would be few policy remedies available if the economy were to revert back into recession. Interest rates cannot be pushed down further — they are already at zero. The Fed has already flooded the financial markets with money by buying billions in mortgage securities and Treasury bonds, and economists do not even agree on whether those purchases substantially helped the economy. So the Fed may not see much upside to going through another politically controversial round of buying. “There are only so many times the Fed can pull this same rabbit out of its hat,” said Torsten Slok, the chief international economist at Deutsche Bank. Congress had some room — financially and politically — to engage in fiscal stimulus during the last recession. But at the end of 2007, the federal debt was 64.4 percent of the economy. Today, it is estimated at around 100 percent of gross domestic product, a share not seen since the aftermath of World War II, and there is little chance of lawmakers reaching consensus on additional stimulus that would increase the debt. “There is no approachable precedent, at least in the postwar era, for what happens when an economy with 9 percent unemployment falls back into recession,” said Nigel Gault, chief United States economist at IHS Global Insight. “The one precedent you might consider is 1937, when there was also a premature withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, and the economy fell into another recession more painful than the first.”
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Rampell ’11 CATHERINE RAMPELL, “Second Recession in U.S. Could Be Worse Than First,” New York Times, 8/7/2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/business/a-second-recession-could-be-much-worse-than-the-first.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
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If the economy falls back into recession, the bloodletting could be a lot more painful than the last time around. the economy is much weaker than it was at the outset of the last recession with most major measures of economic health — including jobs, incomes, output and industrial production — worse today than they were back then growth has been so weak that almost no ground has been recouped “It would be disastrous if we entered into a recession at this stage, given that we haven’t yet made up for the last recession,” the credit bubble left Americans with lots of fat to cut, but a new one would force families to cut from the bone policy makers used most of the economic tools at their disposal to combat the last recession, and have few options available. In the four years since the recession began, the civilian working-age population has grown by about 3 percent. If the economy were healthy, the number of jobs would have grown at least the same amount. Even those Americans who are working are generally working less; the typical private sector worker has a shorter workweek today than four years ago. Employers shed all the extra work shifts and weak or extraneous employees that they could during the last recession. As shown by unusually strong productivity gains, companies are now squeezing as much work as they can from their newly “lean and mean” work forces. Should a recession return, it is not clear how many additional workers businesses could lay off and still manage to function. With fewer jobs and fewer hours logged, there is less income for households to spend, creating a huge obstacle for a consumer-driven economy. Consumer spending, along with housing, usually drives a recovery. But with incomes so weak, spending is only barely where it was when the recession began. Unlike during the first downturn, there would be few policy remedies available if the economy were to revert back into recession. Interest rates cannot be pushed down further — they are already at zero. The Fed has already flooded the financial markets with money by buying billions in mortgage securities and Treasury bonds, and economists do not even agree on whether those purchases substantially helped the economy the Fed may not see much upside to going through another politically controversial round of buying. at the end of 2007, the federal debt was 64.4 percent of the economy. Today, it is estimated at around 100 percent of gross domestic product, a share not seen since the aftermath of World War II, and there is little chance of lawmakers reaching consensus on additional stimulus that would increase the debt. There is no approachable precedent, at least in the postwar era, for what happens when an economy with 9 percent unemployment falls back into recession,”
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Econ isn’t resilient anymore
| 6,027 | 28 | 2,784 | 1,014 | 4 | 472 | 0.003945 | 0.465483 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,430 |
Cuba relies on imports for 75 percent of its food, creating a huge potential market for U.S. farmers and ranchers, says Parr Rosson, head, Texas A&M Agricultural Economics Department and AgriLife Extension economist. U.S. producers have been able to take advantage of some of that demand with the passage of a 2000 law allowing limited trade with Cuba, in spite of a trade, travel and economic embargo that has been in place since 1962. Rosson, speaking at the Texas Plant Protection Association’s annual conference today in Bryan, Texas, said ag exports to Cuba could reach $450 million for 2012, short of the more than $700 million exported to Cuba in 2008, when numerous hurricanes hammered the island nation and increased the need for imported food. Rosson said key U.S. ag exports to Cuba include corn, poultry, soy and soy products, feeds, pork and wheat. Potential exists for increased export of higher quality cuts of beef, which currently are limited to use in the Cuban tourist industry. Since 2000, U.S ag suppliers fill some of those needs. The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000, “created exceptions,” Rosson said. The act permits exports of food, medicines and some chemicals into Cuba although the embargo remains in place for most trade. Also banned are imports from Cuba, including Cuban cigars. U.S. banking with Cuba is prohibited as is tourism and spending money in Cuba. Reforms do allow exporters to travel to Cuba. “The United States is stringent about the embargo,” Rosson said. And that embargo is likely to remain in place, he added, “as long as a Castro is in power.”
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Smith ’12 Ron Smith, “Cuba trade holds promise for U.S. agricultural exports, Texas A&M economist says,” Southwest Farm Press, 12/6/2012, http://southwestfarmpress.com/markets/cuba-trade-holds-promise-us-agricultural-exports-texas-am-economist-says
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Cuba relies on imports for 75 percent of its food, creating a huge potential market for U.S. farmers and ranchers says Rosson head Texas A&M Agricultural Economics Department key U.S. ag exports to Cuba include corn, poultry, soy and soy products, feeds, pork and wheat. Potential exists for increased export of higher quality cuts of beef, which currently are limited to use in the Cuban tourist industry. the embargo remains in place for most trade U.S. banking with Cuba is prohibited as is tourism and spending money in Cuba. The United States is stringent about the embargo
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Cuba trade opens a huge opportunity for US ag exports
| 1,617 | 53 | 578 | 271 | 10 | 97 | 0.0369 | 0.357934 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
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Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,431 |
American farmers are at a point where they desperately need to search for new avenues and alternatives to increase their profits and pull themselves out of financial difficulty. I believe that one such way is lifting the highly controversial Cuban embargo, thus granting American farmers entrance into the Cuban market. It is apparent that Cuba has a need for food and American farmers are looking to increase foreign markets. Therefore, lifting the Cuban embargo may help to solve both countries’ problems. Recently, there has been widespread support for lifting the Cuban food and medicine embargo by American farmers and Congressmen because it is estimated that Cuba buys a little less than one billion dollars of food annually from countries such as Canada, Europe, and Latin America.110 Any well-trained businessman knows that a billion-dollar market is a gold mine in the world of economics.111 And, any well-trained businessman knows that “opening additional export markets,” a billion dollar one at that, is vital to any “industry that is in a severe economic crisis.”112 Therefore, many American farmers and certain Congressman have taken steps to open the Cuban market to American Farmers.113 For example, Representative Nick Lampson of Texas, along with several rice farmers, traveled to Cuba in search of new export markets, in turn, they asked United States lawmakers to lift the restrictions on food and medicine sales to Cuba.114 Representative Lampson believes that “the objectives for which [the embargo] was created no longer makes any sense in either political or economic terms.”115 Furthermore, Representative Lampson believes that the economic sanctions specifically hurt two groups of people, “the Cuban people who need our food, and United States farmers who can produce it in abundance.”116 Other Congressmen have also asked for lifting the embargo, mainly because of the rising interest and influence from agricultural and business groups who want to transact business with Cuba.117 For example, in March 2000, Senator Jesse Helms, an outspoken supporter of the embargo, passed a bill that would permit the sale of American food and medicine to the Cuban people.118 It is also believed that the American public is even changing its views about the embargo.119 Several polls showed that the Cuban embargo support of the past was beginning to fade because six of ten Americans backed the sanctions; today, forty-seven percent of the American public feel its time to remove Cuba’s sanctions.120 Furthermore, at least thirty-eight powerful and influential farm groups and agribusiness companies support lifting the sanctions against Cuba.121 More support is soon to follow, especially since two ships carrying U.S. chicken arrived in Cuba, completing the first trade between the two nations since the embargo was first implemented.122 Moreover at that time, more shipments were expected to bring about $30 million dollars worth of American wheat, corn, soybeans, rice, and chicken.123 This magnitude of support clearly demonstrates the eagerness of American farmers and businesses to tap into the economic opportunities that are present in Cuba.124 But the recent food sales to Cuba will surely fuel the debate in the United States between American farmers and corporations who would like to see an end to the embargo, and Cuban exile groups who would like to make the sanctions tougher.125 If the United States government were to lift the Cuban embargo to provide assistance to the American farmer, then such a move will give them access to a new billion-dollar market in which to sell its food. More importantly, this new billion-dollar market will ultimately provide American farmers with some of the aid that they so desperately seek. Clearly, American farmers want, need, and feel that they should have the opportunity to tap into this market, just as farmers and businessmen from other nations have. Presently, other countries have a head start with Cuban investment.126 However, as a practical matter, tapping into this market could be beneficial to both countries because Cuba is so close to the United States.127 Therefore, this advantage afforded to other countries could shift to the United States simply because of the proximity between the two nations.128 B. The United States’ Proximity to Cuba Cuba is only ninety miles south of the United States.129 Thus, both countries could save considerable amounts of time and money because of reduced transportation costs.130 Moreover, American farmers’ products could be easily and quickly transported to Cuba if the embargo were lifted.131
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Williams ‘2 Alexander Williams III, Graduate of University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture , “MORE ASSISTANCE PLEASE: LIFTING THE CUBAN EMBARGO MAY HELP REVIVE AMERICAN FARMS,” Drake Journal of Agricultural Law, vol. 7, 2002, http://students.law.drake.edu/aglawjournal/docs/agVol07No2-Williams.pdf
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American farmers desperately need to search for new avenues and alternatives to increase their profits one way is lifting the Cuban embargo Cuba has a need for food and American farmers are looking to increase foreign markets. a billion-dollar market is a gold mine in the world of economics. opening additional export markets, is vital to any “industry that is in a severe economic crisis economic sanctions specifically hurt two groups of people, “the Cuban people who need our food, and United States farmers who can produce it in abundance. Cuba is only ninety miles south of the United States both countries could save considerable amounts of time and money because of reduced transportation costs American farmers’ products could be easily and quickly transported to Cuba if the embargo were lifted
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Cuban exports are key to US agriculture
| 4,618 | 39 | 804 | 724 | 7 | 131 | 0.009669 | 0.180939 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,432 |
The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) produced a study in 2007 analyzing the effects of both U.S. government financing restrictions for agricultural exports to Cuba and U.S. travel restrictions on the level of U.S. agricultural sales to Cuba.48 At the time of the study, the U.S. share of various Cuban agricultural imports was estimated to range from 0-99% depending on the commodity. If U.S. financing restrictions were lifted, the study estimated that the U.S. share of Cuban agricultural, fish, and forest products imports would rise to between one-half and two-thirds. According to the study, if travel restrictions for all U.S. citizens were lifted, the influx of U.S. tourists would be significant in the short term and would boost demand for imported agricultural products, particularly high-end products for the tourist sector. If both financing and travel restrictions were lifted, the study found that the largest gains in U.S. exports to Cuba would be for fresh fruits and vegetables, milk powder, processed foods, wheat, and dry beans. In 2009, the USITC issued a working paper that updated the agency’s 2007 study on U.S. agricultural sales to Cuba. The update concluded that if U.S. restrictions on financing and travel were lifted in 2008, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba would have increased between $216 million and $478 million and the U.S. share of Cuba’s agricultural imports would have increased from 38% to between 49% and 64%.49 Among the U.S. agricultural products that would have benefited the most were wheat, rice, beef, pork, processed foods, and fish products. In general, some groups favor further easing restrictions on agricultural exports to Cuba. U.S. agribusiness companies that support the removal of restrictions on agricultural exports to Cuba believe that U.S. farmers are unable to capitalize on a market so close to the United States. Those who support the lifting of financing restrictions contend such an action would help smaller U.S. companies increase their exports to Cuba more rapidly. Opponents of further easing restrictions on agricultural exports to Cuba maintain that U.S. policy does not deny such sales to Cuba, as evidenced by the large amount of sales since 2001. In particular, some agricultural producers that export to Cuba support continuation of the provision requiring payment of cash in advance because it ensures that they will be paid.
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Sullivan 6/12 Mark P. Sullivan, Specialist in Latin American Affairs at CRS, “Cuba: U.S. Policy and Issues for the 113th Congress,” Congressional Research Service, 6/12/2013, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43024.pdf
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The USITC) produced a study analyzing the effects of financing restrictions for agricultural exports and travel restrictions on the level of U.S. agricultural sales to Cuba If U.S. financing restrictions were lifted, the study estimated that the U.S. share of Cuban agricultural, fish, and forest products imports would rise to between one-half and two-thirds. the influx of U.S. tourists would be significant in the short term and would boost demand for imported agricultural products, particularly high-end products for the tourist sector. If both financing and travel restrictions were lifted, the study found that the largest gains in U.S. exports to Cuba would be for fresh fruits and vegetables, milk powder, processed foods, wheat, and dry beans. if U.S. restrictions on financing and travel were lifted in 2008, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba would have increased between $216 million and $478 million and the U.S. share of Cuba’s agricultural imports would have increased from 38% to between 49% and 64%. agribusiness companies that support the removal of restrictions on agricultural exports to Cuba believe that U.S. farmers are unable to capitalize on a market so close to the United States. Those who support the lifting of financing restrictions contend such an action would help smaller U.S. companies increase their exports to Cuba more rapidly.
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Lifting the embargo massively increases exports to Cuba
| 2,414 | 55 | 1,364 | 380 | 8 | 213 | 0.021053 | 0.560526 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
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Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,433 |
Conventional wisdom holds that multilateral embargoes are more effective than unilateral embargoes. But while U.S. unilateral measures have not been effective at ending the Castro regime, they have had a far greater impact on Cuba's economy and society than would ordinarily be expected of a unilateral trade embargo. This is partly because the United States would be Cuba's largest and closest trading partner, and the lack of access to U.S. markets means that Cuba is excluded from buying a broad range of U.S. goods that cost less to buy and transport than comparable goods produced elsewhere in the world. According to a study by the Congressional Research Service, imports to Cuba were 30 percent higher overall as a result of the embargo.2 For example, Braille machines produced in the United States, used for teaching blind and partially sighted children, are significantly less expensive than those produced elsewhere. Consequently, Cuba's costs when it buys Braille machines for schools are $1100 per machine, rather than $700 for the machines produced in the United States.' Likewise, because cytostatic serums, used to treat certain types of malignant tumors, cannot be purchased from U.S. companies, Cuba buys them from Europe or Asia, or through third countries, which significantly increases their costs.4 Additionally, according to the UN Human Settlements Program, Cuba's inability to purchase construction materials from U.S. sources adversely affects cost and logistics to such a degree that it undermines the availability of adequate housing in Cuba. On one occasion, this lack of access to cheap U.S. materials compromised Cuba's "response to housing reconstruction needs resulting from destructive hurricanes in 2001 and 2002, in both cases primarily affecting the most vulnerable sectors of the population." 5 Thus, even as a unilateral measure, the fact that the embargo denies Cuba access to U.S. markets is itself costly and damaging to the Cuban economy.
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Gordon 12 (Joy, “The U.S. Embargo against Cuba and the Diplomatic Challenges to Extraterritoriality,” THE FLETCHER FORUM OF WORLD AFFAIRS, VOL.36:1 WINTER 2012, AK)
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while U.S. unilateral measures have not been effective at ending the Castro regime, they have had a far greater impact on Cuba's economy and society than would ordinarily be expected of a unilateral trade embargo. the United States would be Cuba's largest and closest trading partner, and the lack of access to U.S. markets means that Cuba is excluded from buying a broad range of U.S. goods that cost less to buy and transport than comparable goods produced elsewhere in the world. imports to Cuba were 30 percent higher overall as a result of the embargo. Cuba's costs when it buys Braille machines for schools are $1100 per machine, rather than $700 for the machines produced in the United States. serums, used to treat certain types of malignant tumors, cannot be purchased from U.S. companies, Cuba buys them from Europe or Asia, or through third countries, which significantly increases their costs. Cuba's inability to purchase construction materials from U.S. sources adversely affects cost and logistics to such a degree that it undermines the availability of adequate housing in Cuba. this lack of access to cheap U.S. materials compromised Cuba's "response to housing reconstruction needs resulting from destructive hurricanes in 2001 and 2002, in both cases primarily affecting the most vulnerable sectors of the population." the fact that the embargo denies Cuba access to U.S. markets is itself costly and damaging to the Cuban economy.
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Removing the embargo solves bilateral trade and boosts the Cuban economy in multiple sectors – puts the US in position to be Cuba’s #1 trading partner
| 1,980 | 150 | 1,450 | 307 | 26 | 234 | 0.084691 | 0.762215 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,434 |
The U.S. embargo measures interfere in Cuba's access to international banks in several ways, even when they are not U.S. financial institutions. The United States prohibits Cuba from engaging in any transactions in U.S. dollars, and likewise prohibits any bank-including foreign banks- from facilitating commercial transactions by Cuba in U.S. dollars. In recent years, particularly under the Bush administration, the United States has enforced the banking provisions aggressively. The United States fined the Swiss bank UBS $100 million for engaging in U.S. dollar transactions with Cuba, and also imposed smaller fines on Italian and Spanish banks. In 2006, the United States blacklisted the Dutch bank, UNG, which had done business in Cuba for over a decade; the following year UNG termi- nated its banking operations in Cuba.5 In 2009, the Treasury Department imposed a fine of $5.75 million on the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, Ltd., for financial transactions involving Cuba and Sudan, and also fined Credit Suisse Bank almost half a billion dollars for financial transac- tions involving Cuba and other countries subject to U.S. embargoes.16 By 2007, in spite of their own national legislation prohibiting compli- ance with the U.S. embargo, a number of major Canadian and European banks stopped doing business with Cuba including Barclays, the Bank of Nova Scotia, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, and HSBC. 17 These measures impede Cuba's commerce in a number of ways. For many transactions, there are additional costs in using currencies other than the dollar. Because so many major international banks no longer provide banking services to Cuba out of fear of U.S. retaliation, Cuba has had to turn to other banks, which charge higher rates for their services. For 1998, a State Department official maintained that, because of U.S. measures, interest rates for financing Cuban development projects reached 22 percent."' In 2009, Cuba estimated that the losses related to financing costs attributable to the embargo came to $164 million.19
|
Gordon 12 (Joy, “The U.S. Embargo against Cuba and the Diplomatic Challenges to Extraterritoriality,” THE FLETCHER FORUM OF WORLD AFFAIRS, VOL.36:1 WINTER 2012, AK)
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The U.S. embargo measures interfere in Cuba's access to international banks in several ways, even when they are not U.S. financial institutions United States prohibits Cuba from engaging in any transactions in U.S. dollars and likewise prohibits any bank-including foreign banks- from facilitating commercial transactions by Cuba in U.S. dollars the United States has enforced banking provisions aggressively These measures impede Cuba's commerce in a number of ways. there are additional costs in using currencies other than the dollar Because so many major international banks no longer provide banking services to Cuba out of fear of U.S. retaliation, Cuba has had to turn to other banks which charge higher rates for their services a State Department official maintained that, because of U.S. measures, interest rates for financing Cuban development projects reached 22 percent."
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Lifting the embargo brings international banking ties back to Cuba
| 2,079 | 66 | 883 | 324 | 10 | 133 | 0.030864 | 0.410494 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,435 |
What is U.S. public opinion on the isolation of Cuba? Some U.S. constituencies would like to resume relations. U.S. agricultural groups already deal with Cuba, and other economic sectors want access to the Cuban market. Many Cuban-Americans were angered by the Bush administration's strict limits on travel and remittances, though a small but vocal contingent of hard-line Cuban exiles, many of them based in Florida, does not want to normalize relations until the Communist regime is gone. "When they're polled, the majority of Cuban-Americans say that the embargo has failed, and support lifting the travel ban or loosening the embargo or some steps along that continuum of liberalization and normalization," says Julia E. Sweig, CFR director of Latin American studies. Ending the economic embargo against Cuba would require congressional approval. Opinions in Congress are mixed: A group of influential Republican lawmakers from Florida, including former representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart, his brother Mario Diaz-Balart, and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen are stridently anti-Castro. Still, many favor improving relations with Cuba. In 2009, Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), the top-ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, released a report calling for U.S. policy changes. He said: "We must recognize the ineffectiveness of our current policy and deal with the Cuban regime in a way that enhances U.S. interests" (PDF).
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Hanson and Lee ’13 (Stephanie Hanson, associate director and coordinating editor of the Council on Foreign Relations. Brianna Lee, Senior Production Editor of the Council on Foreign Relations, “U.S.-Cuba Relations”, Council on Foreign Relations, January 13, 2013, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113#p3, AD 7/12/13, AK)
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U.S. agricultural groups already deal with Cuba, and other economic sectors want access to the Cuban market. the majority of Cuban-Americans say that the embargo has failed, and support continuum of liberalization and normalization," says Sweig, CFR director of Latin American studies. many favor improving relations with Cuba Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations said: "We must recognize the ineffectiveness of our current policy and deal with the Cuban regime in a way that enhances U.S. interests"
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Plan popular in congress- Lobbies, Cuban-American and Republican support
| 1,429 | 72 | 506 | 213 | 9 | 77 | 0.042254 | 0.361502 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,436 |
However, there are important pitfalls associated with deeper economic relations. In a April 29, 2010, hearing on H.R. 4645, the Travel Restriction Reform and Export Enhancement Act (designed to remove obstacles to legal sales of U.S. agricultural commodities to Cuba—by eliminating the cashin-advance provision required for all such sales to Cuba—and to end travel restrictions on all Americans to Cuba), Representative Kevin Brady (R-TX), the Republican ranking member on the House Ways and Means Committee, outlined some of these drawbacks. Cuba’s economic climate is intolerant of U.S. firms: there exists no accord on U.S. individual or corporate property claims. Indeed, in spite of the Obama administration’s move to allow U.S. telecommunication firms to apply for licenses to conduct business in Cuba, few such companies have rushed in. This is in no small part due to the important challenges associated with policy unpredictability under the current Cuban regime, not to mention significant questions arising from issues of human rights and labor relations. In spite of these considerations, at the time of this publication, H.R. 4645 had been approved in the House Agriculture Committee and awaited further consideration on the Foreign Affairs and Financial Services committees before reaching the House floor.
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Perales ’10 José Raúl Perales, senior program associate of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, et al., “The United States and Cuba: Implications of an Economic Relationship,” WOODROW WILSON CENTER LATIN AMERICAN PROGRAM, August 2010, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/LAP_Cuba_Implications.pdf
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there are important pitfalls associated with deeper economic relations Cuba’s economic climate is intolerant of U.S. firms: there exists no accord on U.S. individual or corporate property claims. in spite of the administration’s move to allow U.S. telecommunication firms to apply for licenses to conduct business in Cuba, few such companies have rushed in. This is in no small part due to the important challenges associated with policy unpredictability under the current Cuban regime, not to mention significant questions arising from issues of human rights and labor relations
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US firms won’t invest in Cuba
| 1,320 | 29 | 579 | 199 | 6 | 88 | 0.030151 | 0.442211 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,437 |
The methodological challenges to establishing a valid assessment of the impact of an embargo are daunting: • Embargoes spread a small increase in risk of death, illness, or social stress among a large group of people. Small risks are difficult to measure with precision. • This small change in risk may be obscured by concurrent events that contribute independently to the negative outcomes which may result from an embargo, such as war, mass migration, or economic crisis. • The impact of trade sanctions on health and well-being is mediated by a country’s economic and social systems. However, sanctions impact considerably on the production, importation and distribution of essential goods. There are thus multiple pathways and steps by which influence is exerted on health and well-being outcomes. • Each sanction on economic trade is a type of ‘natural experiment’, where the intervention is national in scope and control groups with which to make comparisons do not exist. Baseline information available in sanctioned countries is usually limited in coverage or quality and, with the exception of Cuba, the quality of information on health and well-being has declined under sanctions. • Change in the distribution of essential goods within the family or due to political or social mobilisation modify the impact of resource change brought on by trade sanctions. These modifying influences are difficult to isolate and often go unrecognised or unmeasured. Even a dramatic decline in key resources does not always or immediately lead to an increase in morbidity or mortality due to the resilience of ‘health assets’ as public education, healthy behaviours, trained health workers, and infrastructure, which deteriorate only gradually. • Much available information comes from service statistics provided by health or social service provider institutions. These organisations have information on services provided or people served (a numerator) but seldom have information on the underlying populations (the denominator) from which service users come. Such information usually cannot be used to establish valid rates or identify changing levels of demand, need or severity. • A prejudice in favour of quantitative measures often generates an excessive focus on these service statistics or incomplete population indicators when there are, in reality, only partial counts. More attention should be given to identifying key changes occurring in people’s lives (qualitative indicators) to focus on the most effective interventions for improving life chances and reducing mortality. To do so, special studies have to follow groups of people over time; studies carried out at one point in time cannot identify such trends. • Where quantitative indicators are used the information is almost always presented as a single number, for example, a death rate of 100/1000. This form of data presentation fails to communicate the relative level of precision possible for the numbers presented. More accurate would be the inclusion of a 95 per cent statistical confidence interval – for example, 100/1000 +/- 10/1000. Researchers should also describe their impressions of the imperfections in the data drawn upon and the biases inherent in them in order to communicate the level of uncertainty associated with a numerical indicator.
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Garfield 99 (Richard Garfield, Richard Garfield, nurse and epidemiologist, is professor of clinical international nursing at Columbia University, “The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Health and Well-being,” Relief and Rehabilitation Network Paper, November 1999, http://www.essex.ac.uk/armedcon/story_id/The%20Impact%20of%20Econmoic%20Sanctins%20on%20Health%20abd%20Well-Being.pdf, AD: 7/12/13, AK)
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The methodological challenges to establishing a valid assessment of the impact of an embargo are daunting Embargoes spread a small increase in risk Small risks are difficult to measure with precision This small change in risk may be obscured by concurrent events such as war, mass migration, or economic crisis. The impact of trade sanctions on health and well-being is mediated by a country’s economic and social systems. the intervention is national in scope and control groups do not exist. Baseline information is usually limited in coverage or quality Change in the distribution of essential goods within the family or due to political or social mobilisation modify the impact of resource change brought on by trade sanctions. These modifying influences are difficult to isolate and often go unrecognised or unmeasured. Even a dramatic decline in key resources does not always or immediately lead to an increase in morbidity or mortality due to the resilience of ‘health assets’ which deteriorate only gradually. Much available information comes from health or social service provider institutions. These organisations seldom have information on the underlying populations Such information usually cannot be used to establish valid rates or identify changing levels of demand, need or severity. More attention should be given to identifying key changes occurring in people’s lives To do so, special studies have to follow groups of people over time; studies carried out at one point in time cannot identify such trends the information is almost always presented as a single number This form of data presentation fails to communicate the relative level of precision possible for the numbers presented.
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You can’t measure the impact of an embargo – their statistics are misleading – other alternate causes have a greater effect on instability
| 3,319 | 138 | 1,705 | 509 | 23 | 266 | 0.045187 | 0.522593 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,438 |
There may be little or no relationship between America's ubiquity and its actual influence. Hundreds of millions of people around the world wear, listen, eat, drink, watch and dance American, but they do not identify these accouterments of their daily lives with America. A Yankees cap is the epitome of things American, but it hardly signifies knowledge of, let alone affection for, the team from New York or America as such. The same is true for American films, foods or songs. Of the 250 top-grossing movies around the world, only four are foreign-made: ''The Full Monty'' (U.K.), ''Life Is Beautiful'' (Italy) and ''Spirited Away'' and ''Howl's Moving Castle'' (Japan); the rest are American, including a number of co-productions. But these American products shape images, not sympathies, and there is little, if any, relationship between artifact and affection. If the relationship is not neutral, it is one of repulsion rather than attraction -- the dark side of the ''soft power'' coin. The European student movement of the late 1960's took its cue from the Berkeley free-speech movement of 1964, the inspiration for all post-1964 Western student revolts. But it quickly turned anti-American; America was reviled while it was copied. Now shift forward to the Cannes Film Festival of 2004, where hundreds of protesters denounced America's intervention in Iraq until the police dispersed them. The makers of the movie ''Shrek 2'' had placed large bags of green Shrek ears along the Croisette, the main drag along the beach. As the demonstrators scattered, many of them put on free Shrek ears. ''They were attracted,'' noted an observer in this magazine, ''by the ears' goofiness and sheer recognizability.'' And so the enormous pull of American imagery went hand in hand with the country's, or at least its government's, condemnation.
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Josef Joffe, Marc and Anita Abramowitz Fellow in International Relations at Hoover Institution, "The Perils of Soft Power," Hoover Digest, No. 3, 2006, accessed 1/7/10 http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/4634921.html
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There may be no relationship between America's ubiquity and its actual influence. Hundreds of millions of people around the world wear, listen, eat, drink, watch and dance American, but they do not identify these accouterments of their daily lives with America there is little, if any, relationship between artifact and affection. If the relationship is not neutral, it is one of repulsion rather than attraction the enormous pull of American imagery went hand in hand with the country's condemnation
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Soft power fails - cultural influence doesn't spill over to power competition
| 1,839 | 77 | 500 | 295 | 12 | 79 | 0.040678 | 0.267797 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,439 |
Moreover, no contemporary U.S. government owns all of America’s soft power—a considerable understatement. Nor do contemporary Americans and their institutions own all of their country’s soft power. America today is the product of America’s many yesterdays, and the worldwide target audiences for American soft power respond to the whole of the America that they have perceived, including facts, legends, and myths. 41 Obviously, what they understand about America may well be substantially untrue, certainly it will be incomplete. At a minimum, foreigners must react to an American soft power that is filtered by their local cultural interpretation. America is a future-oriented country, ever remaking itself and believing that, with the grace of God, history moves forward progressively toward an ever-better tomorrow. This optimistic American futurism both contrasts with foreigners’ cultural pessimism—their golden ages may lie in the past, not the future—which prevails in much of the world and is liable to mislead Americans as to the reception our soft power story will have. 42 Many people indeed, probably most people, in the world beyond the United States have a fairly settled view of America, American purposes, and Americans. This locally held view derives from their whole experience of exposure to things American as well as from the features of their own “cultural thoughtways” and history that shape their interpretation of American-authored words and deeds, past and present. 43
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Gray ’11 Colin S. Gray, “Hard Power and Soft Power: The Utility of Military Force as an Instrument of Policy in the 21st Century,” Strategic Studies Institute, April 2011, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1059.pdf
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no contemporary U.S. government owns all of America’s soft power Nor do contemporary Americans and their institutions own all of their country’s soft power. America today is the product of America’s many yesterdays, and the worldwide target audiences for American soft power respond to the whole of the America that they have perceived, including facts, legends, and myths. optimistic American futurism both contrasts with foreigners’ cultural pessimism—their golden ages may lie in the past, not the future—which prevails in much of the world and is liable to mislead Americans as to the reception our soft power story will have. most people have a fairly settled view of America This locally held view derives from their whole experience of exposure to things American as well as from the features of their own “cultural thoughtways” and history that shape their interpretation of American-authored words and deeds, past and present.
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No soft power—too diffuse, causes xenophobia, opinions are sedimented
| 1,495 | 69 | 935 | 228 | 9 | 147 | 0.039474 | 0.644737 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,440 |
NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed. Study co-author Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and U.S. Science Team Leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite, reports that real-world data from NASA’s Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into alarmist computer models. “The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show,” Spencer said in a July 26 University of Alabama press release. “There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans.” In addition to finding that far less heat is being trapped than alarmist computer models have predicted, the NASA satellite data show the atmosphere begins shedding heat into space long before United Nations computer models predicted. The new findings are extremely important and should dramatically alter the global warming debate. Scientists on all sides of the global warming debate are in general agreement about how much heat is being directly trapped by human emissions of carbon dioxide (the answer is “not much”). However, the single most important issue in the global warming debate is whether carbon dioxide emissions will indirectly trap far more heat by causing large increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds. Alarmist computer models assume human carbon dioxide emissions indirectly cause substantial increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds (each of which are very effective at trapping heat), but real-world data have long shown that carbon dioxide emissions are not causing as much atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds as the alarmist computer models have predicted. The new NASA Terra satellite data are consistent with long-term NOAA and NASA data indicating atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing in the manner predicted by alarmist computer models. The Terra satellite data also support data collected by NASA’s ERBS satellite showing far more longwave radiation (and thus, heat) escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than alarmist computer models had predicted. Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than alarmist computer models have predicted. In short, the central premise of alarmist global warming theory is that carbon dioxide emissions should be directly and indirectly trapping a certain amount of heat in the earth’s atmosphere and preventing it from escaping into space. Real-world measurements, however, show far less heat is being trapped in the earth’s atmosphere than the alarmist computer models predict, and far more heat is escaping into space than the alarmist computer models predict. When objective NASA satellite data, reported in a peer-reviewed scientific journal, show a “huge discrepancy” between alarmist climate models and real-world facts, climate scientists, the media and our elected officials would be wise to take notice. Whether or not they do so will tell us a great deal about how honest the purveyors of global warming alarmism truly are.
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Taylor ’11 James Taylor, senior fellow for environment policy at the Heartland Institute and managing editor of Environment & Climate News, “New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism,” Forbes, 7/27/2011, http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2011/07/27/new-nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-in-global-warming-alarmism/
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NASA satellite data show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed. real-world data from NASA’s Terra satellite contradict multiple assumptions fed into alarmist computer models. The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show,” There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans.” the NASA satellite data show the atmosphere begins shedding heat into space long before United Nations computer models predicted. the single most important issue in the global warming debate is whether carbon dioxide emissions will indirectly trap far more heat by causing large increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds. real-world data have long shown that carbon dioxide emissions are not causing as much atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds as the alarmist computer models have predicted.
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Warming impacts overstated—new data
| 3,697 | 35 | 1,235 | 567 | 4 | 187 | 0.007055 | 0.329806 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,441 |
That is the conclusion of a recent report by the International Energy Agency, which estimates that in 2035, “coal remains the leading global fuel for power generation.” Use worldwide will rise by 65 percent, led by China, which in the next two decades will add as much power generation as the United States has now, with Japan thrown in for good measure. China is of course planning to employ other sources, like wind power, hydropower and nuclear, but the sooty black rock is expected to represent as much power generation as all those others combined. For its part, India will overtake the United States as the second-biggest user of coal by 2025 and will be the largest net importer of coal by 2020, the IEA says. This news confounds the narrative about coal that has started to take hold in the U.S. The story goes that coal, nudged toward extinction by a glut of cheap, domestic natural gas and stiffening regulations, will begin to disappear as a fuel source and cause emissions of global-warming gases to decline. But the rest of the world, especially Asia, is going in exactly the opposite direction, projected to use an additional billion tons of coal each year by 2016. During that time, China will add the equivalent of 160 new coal plants while India adds 70. The atmosphere doesn’t make a distinction between coal burned in Ohio and coal burned in Shanghai. So while the U.S. is dethroning coal, it may not do much to slow the carbon emissions that are steadily warming the planet. As the IEA report notes, “The policy decisions carrying the most weight for the global coal balance will be taken in Beijing and New Delhi.”
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Ferris ’12 David Ferris, “As Coal Use Drops In U.S., China and India Burn Even More,” Forbes, 11/20/2012, http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidferris/2012/11/20/as-coal-use-drops-in-u-s-china-and-india-burn-even-more/
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the I E A estimates that in 2035, “coal remains the leading global fuel for power generation.” Use worldwide will rise by 65 percent, led by China, which in the next two decades will add as much power generation as the United States has now, with Japan thrown in for good measure India will overtake the United States as the second-biggest user of coal by 2025 and will be the largest net importer of coal by 2020 by 2016 China will add the equivalent of 160 new coal plants while India adds 70. The atmosphere doesn’t make a distinction between coal burned in Ohio and coal burned in Shanghai. while the U.S. is dethroning coal, it may not do much to slow the carbon emissions that are steadily warming the planet. The policy decisions carrying the most weight for the global coal balance will be taken in Beijing and New Delhi.”
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Latin America is irrelevant - Chinese and Indian coal emissions far surpass American GHG reductions
| 1,635 | 99 | 830 | 286 | 15 | 151 | 0.052448 | 0.527972 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,442 |
This assessment of America’s terrorism problem was flawed on every count. It was threat inflation of the highest order. It made no sense to declare war against groups that were not trying to harm the United States. They were not our enemies; and going after all terrorist organizations would greatly complicate the daunting task of eliminating those groups that did have us in their crosshairs. In addition, there was no alliance between the so-called rogue states and al-Qaeda. In fact, Iran and Syria cooperated with Washington after 9/11 to help quash Osama bin Laden and his cohorts. Although the Bush administration and the neoconservatives repeatedly asserted that there was a genuine connection between Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda, they never produced evidence to back up their claim for the simple reason that it did not exist. The fact is that states have strong incentives to distrust terrorist groups, in part because they might turn on them someday, but also because countries cannot control what terrorist organizations do, and they may do something that gets their patrons into serious trouble. This is why there is hardly any chance that a rogue state will give a nuclear weapon to terrorists. That regime’s leaders could never be sure that they would not be blamed and punished for a terrorist group’s actions. Nor could they be certain that the United States or Israel would not incinerate them if either country merely suspected that they had provided terrorists with the ability to carry out a WMD attack. A nuclear handoff, therefore, is not a serious threat. When you get down to it, there is only a remote possibility that terrorists will get hold of an atomic bomb. The most likely way it would happen is if there were political chaos in a nuclear-armed state, and terrorists or their friends were able to take advantage of the ensuing confusion to snatch a loose nuclear weapon. But even then, there are additional obstacles to overcome: some countries keep their weapons disassembled, detonating one is not easy and it would be difficult to transport the device without being detected. Moreover, other countries would have powerful incentives to work with Washington to find the weapon before it could be used. The obvious implication is that we should work with other states to improve nuclear security, so as to make this slim possibility even more unlikely. Finally, the ability of terrorists to strike the American homeland has been blown out of all proportion. In the nine years since 9/11, government officials and terrorist experts have issued countless warnings that another major attack on American soil is probable—even imminent. But this is simply not the case.3 The only attempts we have seen are a few failed solo attacks by individuals with links to al-Qaeda like the “shoe bomber,” who attempted to blow up an American Airlines flight from Paris to Miami in December 2001, and the “underwear bomber,” who tried to blow up a Northwest Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Detroit in December 2009. So, we do have a terrorism problem, but it is hardly an existential threat. In fact, it is a minor threat. Perhaps the scope of the challenge is best captured by Ohio State political scientist John Mueller’s telling comment that “the number of Americans killed by international terrorism since the late 1960s . . . is about the same as the number killed over the same period by lightning, or by accident-causing deer, or by severe allergic reactions to peanuts.”
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Mearsheimer ’10 John J. Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, “Imperial by Design,” The National Interest, 12/16/2010, http://nationalinterest.org/print/article/imperial-by-design-4576
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states have strong incentives to distrust terrorist groups This is why there is hardly any chance that a rogue state will give a nuclear weapon to terrorists. That regime’s leaders could never be sure that they would not be blamed and punished for a terrorist group’s actions. Nor could they be certain that the United States or Israel would not incinerate them if either country merely suspected that they had provided terrorists with the ability to carry out a WMD attack there is only a remote possibility that terrorists will get hold of an atomic bomb. The most likely way it would happen is if there were political chaos in a nuclear-armed state there are additional obstacles to overcome: some countries keep their weapons disassembled, detonating one is not easy and it would be difficult to transport the device without being detected. other countries would have powerful incentives to work with Washington to find the weapon before it could be used. the ability of terrorists to strike the American homeland has been blown out of all proportion. In the nine years since 9/11, government officials and terrorist experts have issued countless warnings that another major attack on American soil is probable—even imminent. But this is simply not the case The only attempts we have seen are a few failed solo attacks by individuals with links to al-Qaeda like the “shoe bomber and the “underwear bomber we do have a terrorism problem, but it is hardly an existential threat “the number of Americans killed by international terrorism since the late 1960s . . . is about the same as the number killed over the same period by lightning, or by accident-causing deer, or by severe allergic reactions to peanuts.”
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No nuclear terror—deterrence and prevention solves
| 3,496 | 50 | 1,713 | 582 | 6 | 288 | 0.010309 | 0.494845 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,443 |
Despite the alarming prospect of nuclear terrorism, the obstacles to obtaining such capabilities are formidable. There are several pathways that terrorists could take to acquire a nuclear device. Seizing an intact nuclear weapon would be the most direct method. However, neither nuclear weapons nor nuclear technology has proliferated to the degree that some observers once feared. Although nuclear weapons have been around for over 65 years, the so-called nuclear club stands at only nine members. 72 Terrorists could attempt to purloin a weapon from a nuclear stockpile; however, absconding with a nuclear weapon would be problematical because of tight security measures at installations. Alternatively, a terrorist group could attempt to acquire a bomb through an illicit transaction, but there is no real well-developed black market for illicit nuclear materials. Still, the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons around the world presents the risk of theft and diversion. 73 In 1997, the Russian General, Alexander Lebed, alleged that 84 ‘suitcase’ bombs were missing from the Russian military arsenal, but later recanted his statements. 74 American officials generally remain unconvinced of Lebed’s story insofar as they were never mentioned in any Soviet war plans. 75 Presumably, the financial requirements for a transaction involving nuclear weapons would be very high, as states have spent millions and billions of dollars to obtain their arsenals. 76 Furthermore, transferring such sums of money could raise red flags, which would present opportunities for authorities to uncover the plot. When pursuing nuclear transactions, terrorist groups would be vulnerable to sting operations. 77 Even if terrorists acquired an intact nuclear weapon, the group would still have to bypass or defeat various safeguards, such as permissive action links (PALs), and safing, arming, fusing, and firing (SAFF) procedures. Both US and Russian nuclear weapons are outfitted with complicated physical and electronic locking mechanisms. 78 Nuclear weapons in other countries are usually stored partially disassembled, which would make purloining a fully functional weapon very challenging. 79
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Michael ’12 George Michael, associate professor of political science and administration of justice at The University of Virginia’s College at Wise, PhD in public policy from GMU, “Strategic Nuclear Terrorism and the Risk of State Decapitation,” Defence Studies, Vol. 12, Issue 1, 2012, T&F
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neither nuclear weapons nor nuclear technology has proliferated to the degree that some observers once feared absconding with a nuclear weapon would be problematical because of tight security measures at installations. there is no real well-developed black market for illicit nuclear materials. Lebed, alleged that 84 ‘suitcase’ bombs were missing from the Russian military arsenal, but later recanted his statements. American officials generally remain unconvinced of Lebed’s story insofar as they were never mentioned in any Soviet war plans. the financial requirements for a transaction involving nuclear weapons would be very high, as states have spent millions and billions of dollars to obtain their arsenals transferring such sums of money could raise red flags, which would present opportunities for authorities to uncover the plot. When pursuing nuclear transactions, terrorist groups would be vulnerable to sting operations Even if terrorists acquired an intact nuclear weapon, the group would still have to bypass or defeat various safeguards, such as PALs), and SAFF) procedures. Both US and Russian nuclear weapons are outfitted with complicated physical and electronic locking mechanisms Nuclear weapons in other countries are usually stored partially disassembled, which would make purloining a fully functional weapon very challenging.
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No nuclear terror—can’t acquire or assemble
| 2,183 | 43 | 1,351 | 323 | 6 | 196 | 0.018576 | 0.606811 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,444 |
Yet the fact that Homo sapiens has managed to survive every disease to assail it in the 200,000 years or so of its existence is a source of genuine comfort, at least if the focus is on extinction events. There have been enormously destaictive plagues, such as the Black Death, smallpox, and now AIDS, but none has come close to destroying the entire human race. There is a biological reason. Natural selection favors germs of limited lethality; they are fitter in an evolutionary sense because their genes are more likely to be spread if the germs do not kill their hosts too quickly. The AIDS virus is an example of a lethal virus, wholly natural, that by lying dormant yet infectious in its host for years maximizes its spread. Yet there is no danger that AIDS will destroy the entire human race. The likelihood of a natural pandemic that would cause the extinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the past (except in prehistoric times, when people lived in small, scattered bands, which would have limited the spread of disease), despite wider human contacts that make it more difficult to localize an infectious disease. The reason is improvements in medical science.
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Richard A. Posner, judge on the US Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit and Senior Lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School, " Catastrophe: the dozen most significant catastrophic risks and what we can do about them," Skeptic, Winter 2005, accessed 11/24/09 http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_kmske/is_3_11/ai_n29167514/?tag=content;col1
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the fact that Homo sapiens has managed to survive every disease to assail it in the 200,000 years or so of its existence is a source of genuine comfort There have been enormously destaictive plagues but none has come close to destroying the entire human race. There is a biological reason. Natural selection favors germs of limited lethality; they are fitter in an evolutionary sense because their genes are more likely to be spread if the germs do not kill their hosts too quickly The likelihood of a natural pandemic that would cause the extinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the past . The reason is improvements in medical science.
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Humans are resilient to disease spread - two hundred thousand years of survival proves
| 1,193 | 86 | 662 | 206 | 14 | 116 | 0.067961 | 0.563107 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,445 |
When thinking of U.S.-Cuba relations, the trade embargo, When thinking of U.S.-Cuba relations, the trade embargo, or el bloqueo, is first and foremost on people’s minds. In 2009, President Barack Obama eased the travel ban, allowing Cuban-Americans to travel freely to Cuba, and again in 2011, allowing students and religious missionaries to travel to Cuba, as recently demonstrated by American pop culture figures, Beyoncé and her husband Jay-Z. Despite a history of hostile transgressions, the U.S. is inconsistent with its implementation of the embargo, which sends mixed signals to Havana and displays our weak foreign policy regarding Cuba. Undoubtedly, Cuba is capitalizing on this weakness by using the embargo as a scapegoat for all of its woes without any immediate fear of reinstated restrictions. Because the goal is to promote Cuban democracy and freedom through non-violent and non-invasive means while refraining from providing any support to the current oppressive Cuban government, the current legislation regarding the embargo and travel ban against Cuba needs to be modernized and strengthened. The need for an embargo has never been more important or potentially effective, even considering the current human rights and economic arguments against the embargo. Washington’s goal in its dealings with Havana is clear: facilitate the introduction and growth of democracy while increasing personal freedoms. There are many who argue that the best way to spread democracy is by lifting the embargo and travel restrictions. U.S. Rep. Michael Honda argues that an influx of politically enlightened U.S. travelers to Cuba would put Havana in a difficult place, leading to their own people calling for change. However, this is erroneous. Due to the fractured and weakened state of the embargo, over 400,000 U.S. travelers visited Cuba in 2011, making the United States the second-largest source of foreign visitors after Canada, according to NPR’s Nick Miroff. Obviously, this influx of what has been theorized to be liberty-professing tourists has not resulted in an influx of such democratic ideals into this overwhelmingly federally controlled country. One example is the case of Alan Gross, an American citizen working for USAID. He was arrested in Cuba in 2009 under the allegations of Acts against the Independence and Territorial Integrity of the State while distributing computers and technological equipment to Jewish communities in Cuba. He is currently serving the fourth of his fifteen-year conviction, is in poor health, and receiving little to no aid from the U.S., according to the Gross Family website. In light of this, it is hard to believe that the U.S. would be able to protect a large number of tourists in a hostile nation, especially when they plan to ‘profess’ political freedom. This view is further promoted by the Ladies in White, a Cuban dissident group that supports the embargo. They fear ending it would only serve to strengthen the current dictatorial regime because the real blockade, they claim, is within Cuba. Allowing American travelers to visit Cuba does not help propel the cause of Cuban democracy; it hampers it. Still there is the idea that further increasing American tourism to this nearby Caribbean island will at least aid their impoverished citizens in some manner, but this is neither a straight-forward nor easy solution. From the annual throng of American visitors, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio declared at a 2011 Western Hemisphere Subcommittee Hearing that an estimated, “$4 billion a year flow directly to the Cuban government from remittances and travel by Cuban Americans, which is perhaps the single largest source of revenue to the most repressive government in the region.” These remittances are sent by Americans to help their Cuban families, not support the Cuban government. It is also a common belief that the Cuban embargo is a leading cause of poverty among the Cuban citizens and that lifting the embargo would go a long way toward improving the Cuban standard of living. However, no amount of money can increase the living standards there as long as their current regime stands. “After all, the authorities were already skimming 20 percent of the remittances from Cuban-Americans and 90 percent of the salary paid to Cubans by non-American foreign investors,” states Alvaro Vargas Llosa, Senior Fellow of The Center on Global Prosperity at The Independent Institute. However unfortunate it may be, Cuba, in its current state, is a nation consisting only of a wealthy and powerful few and an impoverished and oppressed proletariat, who possess little to no means to escape or even improve their fate. Lifting the trade embargo will not increase the general prosperity of the Cuban people, but it will increase the prosperity of the government. Ergo, the poverty and dire situation of the Cuban people cannot be blamed on the United States or the embargo. No doubt, it has been a fruitless 50 years since the embargo was enacted. Little has changed as far as democracy and human rights are concerned. To maintain control, Cuba has “managed to offset much of the effects over the years in large part because the Soviets subsidized the island for three decades, because the regime welcomed Canadian, Mexican and European capital after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, and because Venezuela is its new patron,” according to Llosa. However, Venezuela is now undergoing a political transition of its own with the recent death of Hugo Chávez, its president for the past 14 years, and the controversial election of Nicolás Maduro. Despite being Chávez’s handpicked successor, Maduro only won by a narrow margin and will likely be forced to cut spending on social programs and foreign assistance in an effort to stabilize Venezuela’s dire economic problems. Therefore, now is the ideal time to take action. Without Venezuela’s support, the Cuban government will assuredly face an economic crisis. Strengthening the embargo to limit U.S. dollars flowing into Cuba would place further pressure on the Cuban government and has the potential to trigger an economic collapse. A change in the Cuban political climate is within reach.
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Bustillo 13 (Mitchell Bustillo, Writer for International Policy Digest, Columbia University Graduate, “Time to Strengthen the Cuban Embargo”, Article for International Policy Digest, 5/9/13, http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2013/05/09/time-to-strengthen-the-cuban-embargo/, Accessed 7/13/13, AK)
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the embargo is first and foremost on people’s minds Obama eased the travel ban allowing students and religious missionaries to travel to Cuba, the U.S. is inconsistent with its implementation of the embargo which sends mixed signals and displays our weak foreign policy Cuba is using the embargo as a scapegoat The need for an embargo has never been more important or effective considering the current human rights and economic arguments against the embargo. Washington’s goal is clear facilitate democracy while increasing personal freedoms an influx of politically enlightened U.S. travelers to Cuba would put Havana in a difficult place, However, this is erroneous Gross was arrested in Cuba in 2009 He is currently serving the fourth of his fifteen-year conviction in poor health it is hard to believe that the U.S. would be able to protect a large number of tourists in a hostile nation Allowing American travelers to visit Cuba does not propel Cuban democracy 4 billion a year flow directly to the Cuban government from remittances and travel by Cuban Americans, which is perhaps the single largest source of revenue It is a common belief that the Cuban embargo is a leading cause of poverty and that lifting the embargo would go a long way toward improving the Cuban standard of living. However no amount of money can increase the living standards there as long as their current regime stands authorities were skimming 20 percent of the remittances from Cuban-Americans unfortunate it may be, Cuba onsist only of a wealthy and powerful few Lifting the embargo will not increase the general prosperity but it will increase the prosperity of the government the poverty and dire situation of the Cuban people cannot be blamed on the embargo. it has been a fruitless 50 years Cuba has “managed to offset much of the effects over the years in large part because the Soviets subsidized the island Venezuela is now undergoing a political transition Despite being Chávez’s handpicked successor, Maduro only won by a narrow margin now is the ideal time to take action. Without Venezuela’s support, the Cuban government will assuredly face an economic crisis. Strengthening the embargo would place further pressure on the Cuban government A change in the Cuban political climate is within reach
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Keeping the embargo strong is key to hold the line on global democracy – now is the key tipping point
| 6,189 | 101 | 2,291 | 988 | 20 | 377 | 0.020243 | 0.381579 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,446 |
Lifting the embargo¶ Cuban economy’s bankruptcy is the sole responsibility of Castro’s regime. Under this system the economy will continuous to deteriorate without any hope of improvement. The economy is closely linked to the social development and standard of living of the Cuban people, which make very difficult the improvement of those under the existing regime.¶ Cuba’s problems are not the result of the embargo; they are due to the corruption and ineffectiveness of a system that is against private property and free enterprise. These and no others are the real reasons of the problems. ¶ Lifting the embargo and travel ban without meaningful changes in Cuba will:¶ 1. Guarantee the continuation of the current totalitarian structures.¶ 2. Strengthen state enterprises, since money will flow into businesses owned by the Cuban government.¶ 3. Lead to greater repression and control since Castro and the leadership will fear that U.S. influence will subvert the revolution.¶ 4. Delay instead of accelerate a transition to democracy on the island.¶ The necessary steps required to be taken by the Cuban government to lift the ban on trade and travel between the two countries shall be:¶ 1. Opposition parties should have the freedom to organize, assemble, and speak, with equal access to all airwaves. Political prisoners must be released and allowed to participate.¶ 2. Human rights organizations should be free to visit Cuba to ensure that the conditions for free elections are being created.¶ 3. Eliminate the “tourist apartheid,” where large number of hotels, resorts, beaches and restaurants are off-limits to the average Cuban, and the “medical apartheid” in some hospital that are adequately equipped and do not lack anything, and which are reserved for the nomenclature, the party elite and foreigners who pay in dollars. ¶ After all it was the United States and the European Union embargo, not investments, which helped end apartheid in South Africa.
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Corzo ‘9 Humberto (Bert) Corzo, “Lift the Cuba Embargo?” Cubanet, 4/9/2009, http://www.cubanet.org/CNews/y09/abril09/09_O_3.html
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Cuba’s problems are not the result of the embargo they are due to the corruption and ineffectiveness of a system that is against private property and free enterprise These and no others are the real reasons of the problems Lifting the embargo and travel ban without meaningful changes in Cuba will Guarantee continuation of the current totalitarian structures Strengthen state enterprises Lead to greater repression and control Delay a transition to democracy it was the United States and the European Union embargo, not investments, which helped end apartheid in South Africa.
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Ending the embargo doesn’t change deep-seated ideological barriers to democratization – only bolsters the regime’s ability to oppress its people
| 1,964 | 144 | 577 | 312 | 20 | 91 | 0.064103 | 0.291667 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,447 |
For the past few months, the United States has been rocked by a series of scandals. It all started with the events in Benghazi, when Al Qaeda-affiliated terrorists attacked the General Consulate there and murdered four diplomats, including the U.S. ambassador to Libya. Then there was the scandal exposed when it was revealed that the Justice Department was monitoring the calls of the Associated Press. The Internal Revenue Service seems to have targeted certain political groups. Finally, there was the vast National Security Agency apparatus for monitoring online activity revealed by Edward Snowden. Together, these events provoke a number of questions about the path taken by contemporary Western societies, and especially the one taken by America. Large and powerful institutions, especially those in the security sphere, have become unaccountable to the public, even to representatives of the people themselves. Have George Orwell’s cautionary tales of total government control over society been realized? At the end of the 1960s and the beginning of the 1970s, my fellow students and I read Orwell’s 1984 and other dystopian stories and believed them to portray fascist Germany or the Soviet Union—two totalitarian regimes—but today it has become increasingly apparent that Orwell, Huxley and other dystopian authors had seen in their own countries (Britain and the United States) certain trends, especially as technological capabilities grew, that would ultimately allow governments to exert total control over their societies. The potential for this type of all-knowing regime is what Edward Snowden revealed, confirming the worst fears that the dystopias are already being realized. On a practical geopolitical level, the spying scandals have seriously tarnished the reputation of the United States. They have circumscribed its ability to exert soft power; the same influence that made the U.S. model very attractive to the rest of the world. This former lustre is now diminished. The blatant everyday intrusions into the private lives of Americans, and violations of individual rights and liberties by runaway, unaccountable U.S. government agencies, have deprived the United States of its authority to dictate how others must live and what others must do. Washington can no longer lecture others when its very foundational institutions and values are being discredited—or at a minimum, when all is not well “in the state of Denmark.
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Migranyan 7/5 Andranik Migranyan, “Scandals Harm U.S. Soft Power,” The National Interest, 7/5/2013, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/scandals-harm-us-soft-power-8695
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the United States has been rocked by a series of scandals. It started with Benghazi Then there was the scandal exposed when it was revealed that the Justice Department was monitoring the calls of the A P The I R S seems to have targeted certain political groups Finally, there was the vast N S A apparatus for monitoring online activity the spying scandals have seriously tarnished the reputation of the United States They have circumscribed its ability to exert soft power; This former lustre is now diminished. The blatant everyday intrusions into the private lives of Americans, and violations of individual rights and liberties by runaway, unaccountable U.S. government agencies, have deprived the United States of its authority to dictate how others must live and what others must do. Washington can no longer lecture others when its very foundational institutions and values are being discredited
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US can’t exert pressure for democratic reforms – hampered by recent White House scandals
| 2,445 | 88 | 902 | 375 | 14 | 146 | 0.037333 | 0.389333 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,448 |
As challenges to realism go, democratic peace theory is among the strongest. Still, it has serious problems that ultimately make it unconvincing. The theory’s proponents maintain that the available evidence shows that democracies do not fight other democracies. But other scholars who have examined the historical record dispute this claim. Perhaps the most telling evidence against the theory is Christopher Layne’s careful analysis of four crises in which rival democracies almost went to war with each other.14 When one looks at how the decision not to fight was reached in each case, the fact that both sides were democracies appears to have mattered little. There certainly is no evidence that the rival democracies had benign intentions toward each other. In fact, the outcome each time was largely determined by balance-of-power considerations. Another reason to doubt democratic peace theory is the problem of backsliding. No democracy can be sure that another democracy will not someday become an authoritarian state, in which case the remaining democracy would no longer be safe and secure.15 Prudence dictates that democracies prepare for that eventuality, which means striving to have as much power as possible just in case a friendly neighbor turns into the neighborhood bully. But even if one rejects these criticisms and embraces democratic peace theory, it is still unlikely that all the great powers in the system will become democratic and stay that way over the long term. It would only take a non-democratic China or Russia to keep power politics in play, and both of those states are likely to be non-democratic for at least part of the twenty-first century.16
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Mearsheimer ‘1 John J. Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of political science at the University of Chicago and co-director of the Program on International Security Policy, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, 2001, pp. 367-368
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it has serious problems that ultimately make it unconvincing. The theory’s proponents maintain that the available evidence shows that democracies do not fight other democracies. But other scholars who have examined the historical record dispute this claim. Perhaps the most telling evidence against the theory is Christopher Layne’s careful analysis of four crises in which rival democracies almost went to war with each other When one looks at how the decision not to fight was reached in each case, the fact that both sides were democracies appears to have mattered little. There certainly is no evidence that the rival democracies had benign intentions toward each other. In fact, the outcome each time was largely determined by balance-of-power considerations. Another reason to doubt democratic peace theory is the problem of backsliding. No democracy can be sure that another democracy will not someday become an authoritarian state, in which case the remaining democracy would no longer be safe and secure Prudence dictates that democracies prepare for that eventuality, which means striving to have as much power as possible just in case a friendly neighbor turns into the neighborhood bully. But even if one rejects these criticisms and embraces democratic peace theory, it is still unlikely that all the great powers in the system will become democratic and stay that way over the long term.
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Democratic peace empirically false and fails due to backsliding
| 1,681 | 63 | 1,401 | 268 | 9 | 222 | 0.033582 | 0.828358 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,449 |
Second, contrary to conventional wisdom, democracy is not a necessary condition for stable peace. Although liberal democracies appear to be better equipped to fashion zones of peace due to their readiness to institutionalize strategic restraint and their more open societies – an attribute that advantages societal integration and narrative/identity change – regime type is a poor predictor of the potential for enemies to become friends. The Concert of Europe was divided between two liberalizing countries (Britain and France) and three absolute monarchies (Russia, Prussia, and Austria), but nevertheless preserved peace in Europe for almost four decades. Gen-eral Suharto was a repressive leader at home, but after taking power in 1966 he nonetheless guided Indonesia toward peace with Malaysia and played a leading role in the founding of ASEAN. Brazil and Argentina embarked down the path to peace in 1979 – when both countries were ruled by military juntas. These findings indicate that non-democracies can be reliable partners in peace and make clear that the United States, the EU, and democracies around the world should choose enemies and friends on the basis of other states’ foreign policy behav-ior, not the nature of their domestic institutions.
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Kupchan ‘11 Professor of International Affairs – Georgetown University, April ’11(Charles A, “Enmity into Amity: How Peace Breaks Out,” http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/07977.pdf)
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democracy is not a condition for stable peace. regime type is a poor predictor of the potential for enemies to become friends. The Concert of Europe was divided between liberalizing countries and absolute monarchies but preserved peace in Europe Suharto was a repressive leader but after taking power he guided Indonesia toward peace with Malaysia and founding ASEAN. Brazil and Argentina embarked down the path to peace when both were ruled by military juntas. the U S should choose enemies and friends on the basis of foreign policy not domestic institutions.
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Democratization doesn’t solve war
| 1,265 | 33 | 564 | 194 | 4 | 91 | 0.020619 | 0.469072 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,450 |
But could the New Normal, as this long economic slog has been called, be growing old? That is the surprising new view of a number of economists in academia and on Wall Street, who are now predicting something the United States has not experienced in years: healthier, more lasting growth. The improving outlook is one reason the stock market has risen so sharply this year, even if street-level evidence for a turnaround, like strong job growth and income gains, has been scant so far. A prominent convert to this emerging belief is Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason University near Washington and author of “The Great Stagnation,” a 2011 bestseller, who has gone from doomsayer to a decidedly more optimistic perspective. He is not predicting an imminent resurgence. Like most academic economists, Cowen focuses on the next quarter-century rather than the next quarter. But new technologies like artificial intelligence and online education, increased domestic energy production, and slowing growth in the cost of health care have prompted Cowen to reappraise the country’s prospects. “It’s better than it looked,” Cowen said. “Technological progress comes in batches and it’s just a little more rapid than it looked two years ago.” His next book, “Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation,” is due out in September.
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Schwartz 6/10 Nelson D. Schwartz, “Analysts forecast solid growth for US economic rebound,” Boston Globe, 6/10/2013, http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/06/15/analysts-predict-solid-growth-for-economic-rebound/QVdFATRCoX4pngCFqrwRII/story.html
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could this long economic slog be growing old? That is the view of a number of economists in academia and on Wall Street, who are now predicting healthier, more lasting growth. The improving outlook is one reason the stock market has risen so sharply this year, even if street-level evidence for a turnaround has been scant new technologies like artificial intelligence and online education, increased domestic energy production, and slowing growth in the cost of health care have prompted Cowen to reappraise the country’s prospects. “It’s better than it looked,” Technological progress comes in batches and it’s just a little more rapid than it looked two years ago
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The economy has turned around – tech innovation and lower energy and health care costs buoy recovery
| 1,367 | 100 | 666 | 220 | 17 | 108 | 0.077273 | 0.490909 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,451 |
Two widely followed economic forecasters, Morgan Stanley and IHS Global Insight, have both increased their estimates for growth in recent days. “It’s been a long time coming,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS. “There is more optimism about the US and in particular about the second half of this year and 2014. Three months ago, we wouldn’t have come to that same conclusion.” Indeed, a number of forecasters are now predicting that the expansion, which began in 2009 and has remained subpar ever since, might prove to be far more durable than the typical five-to-six-year growth cycle, in part because of the absence of the traditional boom, then bust pattern. In particular, Behravesh and other economists said, the economy has shown greater resilience than expected in the face of tax increases and spending cuts in Washington. As the impact from this fiscal tightening eases, the overall growth rate should pick up. Behravesh now expects the annual growth rate to rise to 2.9 percent in 2014 and 3.5 percent in 2015. If he’s right, it would mark the fastest annual growth since 2005, when the economy expanded by 3.1 percent. It is also well above the 2 percent rise in output the economy has averaged over the last three years. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office also sees relatively fast growth of 3.4 percent next year, and 3.6 percent between 2015 and 2018. A few other private economists are even more bullish. Jim Glassman, senior economist at JP Morgan Chase’s commercial bank, estimates the economy could expand by 4 percent in both 2014 and 2015. If that were to come to pass, it would be the strongest back-to-back annual growth since the late 1990s.
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Schwartz 6/10 Nelson D. Schwartz, “Analysts forecast solid growth for US economic rebound,” Boston Globe, 6/10/2013, http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/06/15/analysts-predict-solid-growth-for-economic-rebound/QVdFATRCoX4pngCFqrwRII/story.html
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Two widely followed economic forecasters, Morgan Stanley and IHS Global Insight, have both increased their estimates for growth There is more optimism about the US and about the second half of this year and 2014. Three months ago, we wouldn’t have come to that same conclusion.” a number of forecasters are now predicting that the expansion might prove to be far more durable than the typical five-to-six-year growth cycle because of the absence of the traditional boom, then bust pattern the economy has shown greater resilience than expected in the face of tax increases and spending cuts in Washington As the impact from this fiscal tightening eases, the overall growth rate should pick up. C B O also sees relatively fast growth of 3.4 percent next year, and 3.6 percent between 2015 and 2018 Glassman, senior economist at JP Morgan Chase’s commercial bank, estimates the economy could expand by 4 percent in both 2014 and 2015 it would be the strongest back-to-back annual growth since the late 1990s.
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Ignore their doomsaying – 2013 and 2014 will show strong economic growth – expert consensus
| 1,686 | 91 | 1,006 | 283 | 15 | 168 | 0.053004 | 0.59364 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,452 |
Still there is the idea that further increasing American tourism to this nearby Caribbean island will at least aid their impoverished citizens in some manner, but this is neither a straight-forward nor easy solution. From the annual throng of American visitors, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio declared at a 2011 Western Hemisphere Subcommittee Hearing that an estimated, “$4 billion a year flow directly to the Cuban government from remittances and travel by Cuban Americans, which is perhaps the single largest source of revenue to the most repressive government in the region.” These remittances are sent by Americans to help their Cuban families, not support the Cuban government. It is also a common belief that the Cuban embargo is a leading cause of poverty among the Cuban citizens and that lifting the embargo would go a long way toward improving the Cuban standard of living. However, no amount of money can increase the living standards there as long as their current regime stands. “After all, the authorities were already skimming 20 percent of the remittances from Cuban-Americans and 90 percent of the salary paid to Cubans by non-American foreign investors,” states Alvaro Vargas Llosa, Senior Fellow of The Center on Global Prosperity at The Independent Institute. However unfortunate it may be, Cuba, in its current state, is a nation consisting only of a wealthy and powerful few and an impoverished and oppressed proletariat, who possess little to no means to escape or even improve their fate. Lifting the trade embargo will not increase the general prosperity of the Cuban people, but it will increase the prosperity of the government. Ergo, the poverty and dire situation of the Cuban people cannot be blamed on the United States or the embargo.
|
Bustillo ’13 Mitchell Bustillo, “Time to Strengthen the Cuban Embargo,” International Policy Digest, 5/9/2013, http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2013/05/09/time-to-strengthen-the-cuban-embargo/
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this is neither a straight-forward nor easy solution an estimated, “$4 billion a year flow directly to the Cuban government from remittances and travel by Cuban Americans, which is perhaps the single largest source of revenue to the most repressive government in the region.” no amount of money can increase the living standards there as long as their current regime stands the authorities were already skimming 20 percent of the remittances from Cuban-Americans and 90 percent of the salary paid to Cubans by non-American foreign investors Cuba is a nation consisting only of a wealthy and powerful few and an impoverished and oppressed proletariat, who possess little to no means to escape or even improve their fate. Lifting the trade embargo will not increase the general prosperity of the Cuban people, but it will increase the prosperity of the government poverty cannot be blamed on the embargo
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Lifting the embargo doesn’t solve inequality – just pads the pockets of elites
| 1,761 | 78 | 901 | 287 | 13 | 147 | 0.045296 | 0.512195 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,453 |
While continued consolidation poses a challenge, an even bigger challenge may be adjusting to a dynamic rural economy where agriculture’s direct role is declining. Many of your member institutions were created when agriculture dominated the rural economy. That is simply no longer the case throughout much of the developed world. Other non-agricultural industries are becoming more important in the rural economy. Agriculture can still supply new growth to the rural economy, especially through a new generation of products, but agriculture’s role in the rural economy seems likely to continue its trend to still lower levels in the years to come. Here in the United States, we can track this trend for agriculture. Agriculture accounts for less than 2 percent of U.S.[GDP] gross domestic product. Similarly, agriculture’s share of the U.S. civilian labor force has fallen from 12 percent in 1950 to only 2 percent in 2000. The smaller role of agriculture in the rural economy is even more striking. During the past 30 years, agriculture’s share of employment has fallen from 4.9 to 3.1 percent. Agriculture’s share of rural income has fallen more than half, from 13 percent to 5.0 percent. In short, agriculture is now the primary source of income in only one in every 10 rural counties. Agriculture’s declining role in the economy is not unique to the United States, of course. The trend is widespread throughout the developed world. By 2000, agriculture accounted for less than 5 percent of GDP in most developed countries and less than 2 percent in Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Agriculture’s share of the labor force fell from a third to approximately 6 percent in Japan during the past 40 years. During the same time period, agricultural employment fell sharply in other countries across the globe, including Germany, France, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom.
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Hoenig ‘2 Thomas M. Hoenig, Int’l Confed. for Ag. Credit, 9-23-2002, “Agricultural Lenders”, http://www.kc.frb.org/SPCH&BIO/IntnlConfAgCredit.pdf
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agriculture dominated the rural economy. That is simply no longer the case Other non-agricultural industries are becoming more important in the rural economy. agriculture’s role in the rural economy seems likely to continue its trend to still lower levels in the years to come Agriculture accounts for less than 2 percent of U.S.[GDP] g d p agriculture’s share of the U.S. civilian labor force has fallen to 2 percent The smaller role of agriculture in the rural economy is even more striking. Agriculture’s share of rural income has fallen to 5.0 percent
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Ag isn’t key to the US economy – their evidence is just rhetoric and empirically denied
| 1,884 | 87 | 555 | 304 | 16 | 92 | 0.052632 | 0.302632 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,454 |
So, when we last left off this debate, things were looking grim. My concern in the last post was that the persistence of hard times would cause governments to take actions that would lead to a collapse of the open global economy, a spike in general riots and disturbances, and eerie echoes of the Great Depression. Let's assume that the global economy persists in sputtering for a while, because that's what happens after major financial shocks. Why won't these other bad things happen? Why isn't it 1931? Let's start with the obvious -- it's not gonna be 1931 because there's some passing familiarity with how 1931 played out. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve has devoted much of his academic career to studying the Great Depression. I'm gonna go out on a limb therefore and assert that if the world plunges into a another severe downturn, it's not gonna be because central bank heads replay the same set of mistakes. The legacy of the Great Depression has also affected public attitudes and institutions that provide much stronger cement for the current system. In terms of [public] attitudes, compare the results of this mid-2007 poll with this mid-2010 poll about which economic system is best. I'll just reproduce the key charts below: The headline of the 2010 results is that there's eroding U.S. support for the global economy, but a few other things stand out. U.S. support has declined, but it's declined from a very high level. In contrast, support for free markets has increased in other major powers, such as Germany and China. On the whole, despite the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression, public attitudes have not changed all that much. While there might be populist demands to "do something," that something is not a return to autarky or anything so [drastic]. Another big difference is that multilateral economic institutions are much more robust now than they were in 1931. On trade matters, even if the Doha round is dead, the rest of the World Trade Organization's corpus of trade-liberalizing measures are still working quite well. Even beyond the WTO, the complaint about trade is not the deficit of free-trade agreements but the surfeit of them. The IMF's resources have been strengthened as a result of the 2008 financial crisis. The Basle Committee on Banking Supervision has already promulgated a plan to strengthen capital requirements for banks. True, it's a slow, weak-assed plan, but it would be an improvement over the status quo. As for the G-20, I've been pretty skeptical about that group's abilities to collectively address serious macroeconomic problems. That is setting the bar rather high, however. One could argue that the G-20's most useful function is reassurance. Even if there are disagreements, communication can prevent them from growing into anything worse. Finally, a note about the possibility of riots and other general social unrest. The working paper cited in my previous post noted the links between austerity measures and increases in disturbances. However, that paper contains the following important paragraph on page 19: [I]n countries with better institutions, the responsiveness of unrest to budget cuts is generally lower. Where constraints on the executive are minimal, the coefficient on expenditure changes is strongly negative -- more spending buys a lot of social peace. In countries with Polity-2 scores above zero, the coefficient is about half in size, and less significant. As we limit the sample to ever more democratic countries, the size of the coefficient declines. For full democracies with a complete range of civil rights, the coefficient is still negative, but no longer significant. This is good news!! The world has a hell of a lot more democratic governments now than it did in 1931. What happened in London, in other words, might prove to be the exception more than the rule. So yes, the recent economic news might seem grim. Unless political institutions and public attitudes buckle, however, we're unlikely to repeat the mistakes of the 1930's. And, based on the data we've got, that's not going to happen.
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Drezner ‘11 Daniel W. Drezner, professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, “Please come down off the ledge, dear readers,” Foreign Policy, 8/12/11, http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/08/12/please_come_down_off_the_ledge_dear_readers
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Let's assume that the global economy persists in sputtering for a while, because that's what happens after major financial shocks it's not gonna be 1931 because there's some passing familiarity with how 1931 played out. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve has devoted much of his academic career to studying the Great Depression if the world plunges into a another severe downturn, it's not gonna be because central bank heads replay the same set of mistakes. The legacy of the Great Depression has also affected public attitudes and institutions that provide much stronger cement for the current system U.S. support has declined, but it's declined from a very high level. In contrast, support for free markets has increased in other major powers, such as Germany and China. On the whole, despite the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression, public attitudes have not changed all that much. While there might be populist demands to "do something," that something is not a return to autarky or anything so [drastic]. Another big difference is that multilateral economic institutions are much more robust now than they were in 1931. On trade matters, even if the Doha round is dead, the rest of the World Trade Organization's corpus of trade-liberalizing measures are still working quite well. Even beyond the WTO, the complaint about trade is not the deficit of free-trade agreements but the surfeit of them. The IMF's resources have been strengthened as a result of the 2008 financial crisis. The Basle Committee on Banking Supervision has already promulgated a plan to strengthen capital requirements for banks. As we limit the sample to ever more democratic countries, the size of the coefficient declines. For full democracies with a complete range of civil rights, the coefficient is still negative, but no longer significant. The world has a hell of a lot more democratic governments now than it did in 1931. What happened in London, in other words, might prove to be the exception more than the rule.
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No risk or impact to economic decline
| 4,113 | 37 | 2,024 | 676 | 7 | 333 | 0.010355 | 0.492604 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,455 |
Even if war is still seen as evil, the security community could be dissolved if severe conflicts of interest were to arise. Could the more peaceful world generate new interests that would bring the members of the community into sharp disputes? 45 A zero-sum sense of status would be one example, perhaps linked to a steep rise in nationalism. More likely would be a worsening of the current economic difficulties, which could itself produce greater nationalism, undermine democracy and bring back old-fashioned beggar-my-neighbor economic policies. While these dangers are real, it is hard to believe that the conflicts could be great enough to lead the members of the community to contemplate fighting each other. It is not so much that economic interdependence has proceeded to the point where it could not be reversed – states that were more internally interdependent than anything seen internationally have fought bloody civil wars. Rather it is that even if the more extreme versions of free trade and economic liberalism become discredited, it is hard to see how without building on a preexisting high level of political conflict leaders and mass opinion would come to believe that their countries could prosper by impoverishing or even attacking others. Is it possible that problems will not only become severe, but that people will entertain the thought that they have to be solved by war? While a pessimist could note that this argument does not appear as outlandish as it did before the financial crisis, an optimist could reply (correctly, in my view) that the very fact that we have seen such a sharp economic down-turn without anyone suggesting that force of arms is the solution shows that even if bad times bring about greater economic conflict, it will not make war thinkable.
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Jervis ’11 Robert Jervis, Professor in the Department of Political Science and School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, “Force in Our Times,” Survival, Vol. 25, No. 4, 2011, pp. 403-425
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a worsening of current economic difficulties, could produce greater nationalism, undermine democracy and bring back old-fashioned beggar-my-neighbor economic policies. While these dangers are real, it is hard to believe that the conflicts could be great enough to lead members of the community to contemplate fighting each other. It is not so much that economic interdependence could not be reversed Rather it is that even if the more extreme versions of free trade and economic liberalism become discredited, it is hard to see how leaders and mass opinion would come to believe that their countries could prosper by impoverishing or attacking others While a pessimist could note that this argument does not appear as outlandish as it did before the financial crisis, an optimist could reply (correctly that the very fact that we have seen such a sharp economic down-turn without anyone is the solution shows that even if bad times bring about greater economic conflict, it will not make war thinkable.
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No rally around the flag effect
| 1,792 | 31 | 1,002 | 295 | 6 | 161 | 0.020339 | 0.545763 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,456 |
One year later, how much has the world really changed? Well, Wall Street is home to two fewer investment banks (three, if you count Merrill Lynch). Some regional banks have gone bust. There was some turmoil in Moldova and (entirely unrelated to the financial crisis) in Iran. Severe problems remain, like high unemployment in the West, and we face new problems caused by responses to the crisis—soaring debt and fears of inflation. But overall, things look nothing like they did in the 1930s. The predictions of economic and political collapse have not materialized at all. A key measure of fear and fragility is the ability of poor and unstable countries to borrow money on the debt markets. So consider this: the sovereign bonds of tottering Pakistan have returned 168 percent so far this year. All this doesn't add up to a recovery yet, but it does reflect a return to some level of normalcy. And that rebound has been so rapid that even the shrewdest observers remain puzzled. "The question I have at the back of my head is 'Is that it?' " says Charles Kaye, the co-head of Warburg Pincus. "We had this huge crisis, and now we're back to business as usual?" This revival did not happen because markets managed to stabilize themselves on their own. Rather, governments, having learned the lessons of the Great Depression, were determined not to repeat the same mistakes once this crisis hit. By massively expanding state support for the economy—through central banks and national treasuries—they buffered the worst of the damage. (Whether they made new mistakes in the process remains to be seen.) The extensive social safety nets that have been established across the industrialized world also cushioned the pain felt by many. Times are still tough, but things are nowhere near as bad as in the 1930s, when governments played a tiny role in national economies. It's true that the massive state interventions of the past year may be fueling some new bubbles: the cheap cash and government guarantees provided to banks, companies, and consumers have fueled some irrational exuberance in stock and bond markets. Yet these rallies also demonstrate the return of confidence, and confidence is a very powerful economic force. When John Maynard Keynes described his own prescriptions for economic growth, he believed government action could provide only a temporary fix until the real motor of the economy started cranking again—the animal spirits of investors, consumers, and companies seeking risk and profit. Beyond all this, though, I believe there's a fundamental reason why we have not faced global collapse in the last year. It is the same reason that we weathered the stock-market crash of 1987, the recession of 1992, the Asian crisis of 1997, the Russian default of 1998, and the tech-bubble collapse of 2000. The current global economic system is inherently more resilient than we think. The world today is characterized by three major forces for stability, each reinforcing the other and each historical in nature.
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Zakaria ‘9 Fareed Zakaria, PhD in political science from Harvard, editor of Newsweek, serves on the board of the Council on Foreign Relations, “The Secrets of Stability,” Newsweek, 12/11/2009, http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2009/12/11/the-secrets-of-stability.html
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overall, things look nothing like they did in the 1930s. The predictions of economic and political collapse have not materialized at all. A key measure of fear and fragility is the ability of poor and unstable countries to borrow money on the debt markets. So consider this: the sovereign bonds of tottering Pakistan have returned 168 percent so far this year. All this doesn't add up to a recovery yet, but it does reflect a return to some level of normalcy This revival did not happen because markets managed to stabilize themselves on their own. governments, having learned the lessons of the Great Depression, were determined not to repeat the same mistakes once this crisis hit. By massively expanding state support for the economy—through central banks and national treasuries—they buffered the worst of the damage extensive social safety nets that have been established across the industrialized world also cushioned the pain felt by many. Times are still tough, but things are nowhere near as bad as in the 1930s, when governments played a tiny role in national economies. rallies demonstrate the return of confidence, and confidence is a very powerful economic force Keynes believed government action could provide only a temporary fix until the real motor of the economy started cranking again—the animal spirits of investors, consumers, and companies seeking risk and profit. there's a fundamental reason why we have not faced global collapse in the last year. It is the same reason that we weathered the stock-market crash of 1987, the recession of 1992, the Asian crisis of 1997, the Russian default of 1998, and the tech-bubble collapse of 2000. The current global economic system is inherently more resilient than we think. The world today is characterized by three major forces for stability, each reinforcing the other and each historical in nature.
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Global economy is resilient
| 3,023 | 27 | 1,866 | 499 | 4 | 303 | 0.008016 | 0.607214 |
Cuba Aff - SCDI 2013.html5
|
Sun Country (SCDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,457 |
Venezuela's upcoming election to replace the late Hugo Chavez gives the country an important opportunity to break away from over a decade's worth of strongman rule—and move towards better governance, improved internal security and stability, a stronger and more vibrant economy, and a truly constructive role in regional and global affairs. It's critical that the United States do what it can to encourage Venezuela to seize that opportunity. For over a decade, Chavez led ideologically-driven efforts to erode U.S. standing in Latin America and around the globe. The populist leader expanded Venezuela's ties with rogue states such as Cuba and Iran, aided and protected terrorist organizations such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and actively undermined the rule of law in Venezuela and throughout the Americas. In the Western Hemisphere alone, Chavez used record petrol prices to prop up anti-American socialist leaders, most notably in Bolivia, Cuba and Nicaragua. Chavez leaves behind a broken economy, a deeply divided nation and a dysfunctional government, all of which will take years—if not decades—to overcome. Venezuela is plagued with double-digit inflation, mounting budget deficits and rising levels of violence. While the OPEC nation maintains one of the world's largest geological oil reserves, crude exports—which account for roughly 45 percent of federal budget revenues—have declined by nearly half since 1999. The United States imports roughly one million barrels from Venezuela per day. Chavez's protégé Nicolas Maduro, the former vice president who's now acting as Venezuela's interim president, is running to succeed the late strongman, but it's not preordained that he'll win. It remains to be seen the extent to which he can properly unite prior to the election the many competing populist factions that benefited under Chavez for so many years. What is clear is that he will drape himself in the political ideology of chavismo in the run up to April 14 elections, and use—and quite possibly abuse—government institutions and petrodollars in attempt to woo the country's voters. What's perverse is how the Obama administration's move to "reset" relations with Maduro is doing more to legitimize him as the rightful heir to Venezuela's presidency than to resuscitate relations between the two governments. The move showed itself to be even more naive after Maduro accused the United States of plotting to poison Chavez shortly after the strongman's death. Washington must realize that a strategy of engagement alone will not ensure a renewed and improved partnership with Caracas. Failure to realize this will not only undermine whatever influence America has in the months ahead, but also send a troubling signal to Venezuela's increasingly united political opposition. The Obama administration should instead pursue a more principled policy towards a post-Chavez Venezuela. In particular, it should: Pressure Caracas to implement key election reforms. Venezuela's opposition faces formidable obstacles. Interim President Maduro will use the government's near-monopoly control of public airwaves, its established networks of political patronage and last-minute public spending programs to bolster his populist agenda. Washington should stress publicly and privately that any attempts to suppress or intimidate the opposition runs contrary to Venezuela's constitution and the principles defined in the Inter-American Democratic Charter, which was adopted by Venezuela in 2001. To this point, José Cárdenas, a former USAID acting assistant administrator for Latin America, writes, The Venezuelan opposition continues to insist that the constitution (which is of Chavez's own writing) be followed and have drawn up a list of simple electoral reforms that would level the playing field and better allow the Venezuelan people to chart their own future free of chavista and foreign interference. Demand free, fair and verifiable elections. Although Venezuela announced that a special election to replace Chavez will be held next month, it is important to remember that elections alone do not make a democracy. Indeed, Chavez long embraced the rhetoric of democracy as he, in reality, consolidated executive power, undermined Venezuela's previously democratic political system and altered the outcomes of election through corruption, fraud and intimidation. The Obama administration should make clear that free and fair elections, properly monitored by respected international election observers, are essential to Venezuela's future standing in the hemisphere and the world. Likewise, Secretary of State John Kerry should work with regional partners—including (but not limited to) Brazil, Canada, Colombia and Mexico—to firmly encourage Maduro's interim government. A unified regional voice would send a powerful signal to Chavez's cronies in Caracas and longtime enablers in China, Iran and Russia. Condition future diplomatic and economic relations. Corruption and criminality were widespread under the Chavez regime, as high-level government and military officials benefited from close ties to corrupt businesses and international drug traffickers. Yet to date, the Obama administration has done little to hold Venezuela's leaders accountable. Washington should make clear that full diplomatic relations with the United States will be contingent upon Venezuela ending ties to international terrorist groups and rogue regimes like Iran. If Venezuela takes meaningful steps to end these ties and ensure future elections, the United States should work with Caracas and the private sector to reform Venezuela's energy industry and identify key development projects and reforms to improve the country's economic future. The United States can play an important role in shaping Venezuela's post-Chavez future. But to do so, the Obama administration will need to stand with the people of Venezuela by publicly defending democratic principles and the impartial rule of law in Latin America.
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Christy ’13 (Patrick Christy, senior analyst of Foreign Policy, he wrote for the Republican National Committee on energy, foreign affairs, and national security. His writing has been published in The Commentator, The Diplomat, National Review Online, The Weekly Standard, and U.S. News.com, “Obama Must Stand Up for Democracy in Post-Chavez Venezuela.” March 15th, 2013. http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/03/15/after-chavez-us-must-encourage-democratic-venezuela)
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Venezuela's upcoming election to replace Chavez gives the country an opportunity to move towards better governance, improved internal security and , a stronger economy It's critical that the U S do what it can to encourage Venezuela to seize that opportunity The United States imports roughly one million barrels from Venezuela per day. Washington must realize that a strategy of engagement alone will not ensure a renewed and improved partnership with Caracas Kerry should Condition future economic relations under the Chavez regime high-level government and military officials benefited from close ties to drug traffickers to date the Obama administration has done little to hold Venezuela accountable If Venezuela takes meaningful steps to end these ties the U S should work with Caracas and the private sector to reform Venezuela's energy industry
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( ) The US should QPQ on drug trafficking as well as Iran.
| 6,025 | 59 | 852 | 894 | 13 | 131 | 0.014541 | 0.146532 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,458 |
WASHINGTON, 20 Jul (IPS) - Governmental corruption and the refusal to cooperate with U.S. counter-drug efforts are worsening a ballooning drug trafficking problem in Venezuela, according to a new report by the investigative office of the U.S. Congress. The report, released Monday by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), may further fray long-tense relations between the two countries which had appeared to improve modestly since the inauguration six months ago of President Barack Obama. The report says that gains from the U.S.'s six-billion-dollar Plan Colombia counternarcotics programme are being undermined by Caracas's "permissive environment" for Colombian insurgent groups, notably the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a left-wing guerrilla group that supports itself in part through drug production and trafficking. "According to U.S. officials, a high level of corruption within the Venezuelan government, military, and other law enforcement and security forces contributes to the permissive environment," said the report. Venezuela's 2,000-km-long border with Colombia has long been a preferred route for Colombian drug runners. But shipments of cocaine from Colombia to Venezuela skyrocketed from 60 metric tonnes in 2004 to 260 metric tonnes in 2007, said the GAO. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez denied the GAO's findings as they were leaked to various press outlets over the past several days, calling the study a smear and accusing the U.S. of hypocrisy because drug trafficking is fuelled by U.S. demand. "This is a tough issue for the U.S. to lecture Latin America about because the U.S. hasn't done its part," said Michael Shifter, vice president for policy at the Inter-American Dialogue (IAD), a think tank here. "It's both demand, and it's a failure of law enforcement here, too. The U.S. also deserves to be criticised." In the past, the U.S. and Venezuela have cooperated in anti-drug efforts, but as the relationship deteriorated, cooperation fell off, culminating in Chavez's 2005 expulsion of U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) officials from Venezuela, accusing them of espionage. Chavez said that Venezuelan anti-narcotics efforts have continued without the U.S. But the GAO report claimed that Venezuelan security forces are known to take bribes in exchange for facilitating drug shipments or, upon seizing drugs, either returning them to the traffickers or keeping them. "[The U.S. State Department] reports that members of the special counternarcotics units of the National Guard and the Federal Investigative Policy often facilitate or are themselves involved in drug trafficking," said the report. "In addition, although the Venezuelan government reports that it seizes cocaine and incinerates it, some may be taken by Venezuelan officials or returned to drug traffickers." According to the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime's (UNODC) 2009 World Drug Report, seizures of cocaine in Venezuela dropped from 58 metric tonnes in 2005 to fewer than 32 metric tonnes in 2007. Perhaps the strongest charge made by the report is that Venezuela provides a "lifeline" to the FARC and other groups. "By allowing illegal armed groups to elude capture and by providing material support, Venezuela has extended a lifeline to Colombian illegal armed groups, and their continued existence endangers Colombian security gains achieved with U.S. assistance, according to U.S. and Colombian government officials," the report asserts. "For any government to support a group like the FARC is very serious," Shifter told IPS. "Being involved in the drug trade is something that is of concern, but it's not limited to Venezuela. Support for the FARC has more serious political and strategic considerations." "The findings of this report have heightened my concern that Venezuela's failure to cooperate with the United States on drug interdiction is related to corruption in that country's government," said Sen. Richard Lugar, the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations committee who commissioned the GAO report.
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Kurtzleben and Gharib ’09 (Danielle Kurtzleben and Ali Gharib, Business and Economics Kurtzleben is a reporter at US News & World Report, she was a research coder at Project for Excellence in Journalism -- Pew Research Center, Research Assistant at George Washington University, and Editorial Intern at Rake Publishing. Gharib is a national security reporter for ThinkProgress.org covering U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, particularly Iran. Before joining the Center for American Progress, he wrote and blogged for Inter Press Service as well as the Columbia Journalism Review’s website, ForeignPolicy.com, and AlterNet, among other outlets. Ali holds a B.A. in philosophy from Boston College, a M.S. in philosophy and public policy from the London School of Economics, and an M.S. in journalism from Columbia University.“ Venezuela Drug Trafficking Getting Wore, Says U.S. Report.” July, 20, 2009, http://ipsnorthamerica.net/news.php?idnews=2429)
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the refusal to cooperate with U.S. counter-drug efforts are worsening drug trafficking in Venezuela a high level of corruption within the Venezuelan government, military, and other law enforcement and security forces contributes to the permissive environment, , the U.S. and Venezuela have cooperated in anti-drug efforts, but as the relationship deteriorated, cooperation fell off, culminating in Chavez's 2005 expulsion of U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) officials from Venezuela, that Venezuelan security forces are known to take bribes in exchange for facilitating drug shipments or, upon seizing drugs, either returning them to the traffickers or keeping them. members of the special counternarcotics units of the National Guard and the Federal Investigative Policy often facilitate or are themselves involved in drug trafficking, although the Venezuelan government reports that it seizes cocaine and incinerates it, some may be taken by Venezuelan officials or returned to drug traffickers Venezuela's failure to cooperate with the United States on drug interdiction is related to corruption in that country's government
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US key to stop drug trafficking—solves governmental corruption
| 4,054 | 63 | 1,129 | 614 | 8 | 163 | 0.013029 | 0.265472 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,459 |
A Drug Enforcement Administration report last month indicted that Venezuela has become a key transshipment point for narcotics due to “rampant corruption at the highest levels of law enforcement and a weak judicial system”. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez terminated joint anti-drug operation with United States drug agents from the DEA. The paranoid president accused DEA agents of being spies. The enormous amount of corruption within the Venezuelan government coupled with its president’s seizure and control of the press has made the country ripe for the transit of illegal drugs and other contraband. No journalist in Venezuela who wants to remain out of prison or worse will report on the corruption, drug trade, crime or any other issue that would embarrass the Chavez government. A prison riot that occurred in Venezuela this week highlights the systemic corruption that exists within their criminal justice system: The riot left 10 inmates dead and one wounded the day after officers seized weapons and illegal drugs from gang members in the prison. Venezuela’s prisons and jails are notoriously overcrowded and undersupervised. Firearms, illegal drugs and knives are often smuggled into prisons and sold to prisoners by guards. As reported by the Associated Press, violence is common in the country’s 30 prisons, which were built to house 15,000 inmates but house around 20,000. Over 280 inmates died in violence and at least 449 were injured during the first nine months of 2005, according to the Venezuelan Prisons Observatory, a human rights watchdog. For all of 2004, at least 327 inmates were killed and 655 were wounded, the group says. Meanwhile, at least one metric ton of cocaine per month, and smaller quantities of heroin, are exported to consumers through the country’s principal airport, several foreign counter-drug officials who did not want to be identified because of the sensitivity of their investigations told The Miami Herald. One of the officials also estimated that as much as $2 million is paid out monthly in bribes to airport officials, policemen and National Guard personnel who collaborate with the drug runners. One informant told another investigator that airport jobs go to those willing to participate in the scheme.Counter-drug officials also say private airplanes that traffic drugs from Colombia to such nearby destinations as the Caribbean islands regularly pass through Maiquetia, landing there to get a change in identification numbers and perhaps a new paint job. ”The airport has been a problem, is a problem and will be a problem,” one of the officials told The Miami Herald.Venezuela has clearly become a major transshipment point for illegal drugs leaving Colombia. Estimates vary, but U.S. officials say the country could be a transit point for upward of 200 tons of cocaine per year — half the estimated annual production in Colombia, the world’s leading cocaine producer.Venezuela’s own statistics showed an eight-fold increase in drug seizures since 1999. Media reports have alleged the existence of drug smuggling cartels led by high-level National Guard officers. For their part, Venezuelan authorities have said the United States has no moral authority to comment on drug trafficking since it is the world’s leading consumer of illegal drugs. There are some who believe that the corruption goes directly into the office of President Hugo Chavez. It is significant that the drugs came via Venezuela, because the Colombian army has long alleged that Venezuela’s socialist president, Hugo Chavez, is sympathetic to the Marxist rIebels, according to Venzuelan political analyst Aleksander Boyd. Boyd says, “Evidence, as is often the case with his ‘revolution,’ indicates that since Chavez’s arrival in power, Venezuela has become the favourite launching pad for Colombia’s drug traffickers. It is argued that 80% of the cocaine produced in neighbouring Colombia and the region enters the international markets via Venezuela, as heretofore unseen quantities have been seized in various countries. “On the other hand Chavez’s cozy relationship with the FARC is no secret. So much so that the deranged president disrupted ties with Colombia, Venezuela’s second largest commercial partner, over the capture in Caracas of FARC’s leader Rodrigo Granda, who had Venezuelan citizenship, whose wife and step-daughter were welcomed by close associates of Chavez…. Rodriguez Chacin, and who was a guest of honor in one of his Bolivarian get-togethers.”
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Kouri ‘06 (Jim Kouri, currently fifth vice-president of the National Association of Chiefs of Police and a staff writer for the New Media Alliance (thenma.org). He’s former chief at a New York City housing project in Washington Heights. He served as director of public safety at a New Jersey university and director of security for several major organizations. He’s served on the National Drug Task Force and trained police and security officers throughout the country. Kouri writes for many police and security magazines including Chief of Police, Police Times, The Narc Officer and others. He’s a news writer for TheConservativeVoice.Com. He’s also a columnist for AmericanDaily.Com, MensNewsDaily.Com, MichNews.Com, and he’s syndicated by AXcessNews.Com. He’s appeared as on-air commentator for over 100 TV and radio news and talk shows including Oprah, McLaughlin Report, CNN Headline News, MTV, Fox News, etc. And is the author of “Assume The Position”, “Chavez’s Venezuelan Drug Trade and Corruption,” April 22, 2006 http://www.thelandofthefree.net/conservativeopinion/2006/04/22/chavezs-venezuelan-drug-trade-and-corruption/)
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Venezuela has become a key transshipment point for narcotics due to “rampant corruption at the highest levels of law enforcement and a weak judicial system”. amount of corruption within the Venezuelan government made the country ripe for the transit of illegal drugs and other contraband. No journalist in Venezuela who wants to remain out of prison or worse will report on the corruption, drug trade, illegal drugs are often smuggled into prisons and sold to prisoners by guards one metric ton of cocaine per month and are exported to consumers through counter-drug officials as much as $2 million is paid out monthly in bribes to airport officials, policemen and National Guard personnel who collaborate with the drug runners Media reports have alleged the existence of drug smuggling cartels led by high-level National Guard officers. Venezuela has become the favourite launching pad for Colombia’s drug traffickers. 80% of the cocaine produced in neighbouring Colombia and the region enters the international markets via Venezuela Chavez’s cozy relationship with the FARC is no secret
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Cracking down on drug trafficking key to stop government corruption
| 4,498 | 68 | 1,088 | 701 | 10 | 171 | 0.014265 | 0.243937 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,460 |
Far from being a ‘victimless crime’ corruption infringes the fundamental human right to fair treatment. All persons are entitled to be treated equally, and when one person bribes a public official he acquires a privileged status in relation to others. He becomes an ‘insider’ while others are made ‘outsiders’ (and the more ‘outside’ they are - the very poor, the landless, women, ethnic minorities - the more they will be hurt). Clare Short, the UK Secretary of State for International Development, notes a report in the Indian magazine Outlook to the effect that the bribe for a new water connection was R1,000. This effectively excluded the poor from access to running water, with all the health and time-loss implications that this entails. Corruption is thus profoundly inegalitarian in its effects - it has a ‘Robin Hood-in-reverse’ character. Hugh Bayley MP, introducing a bill to create offences of international bribery and corruption, went so far as to say that “bribery is a direct transfer of money from the poor to the rich”. 20 Secondly, corruption results in biased decision-making, as considerations of personal enrichment take precedence over the establishment of rights for all. Government 15 16 expenditure will be prioritised according to opportunities to extort bribes rather than on the basis of public welfare, and companies will be preferred on the basis of their willingness to pay. The poor may then pay the cost of bribes indirectly through higher prices for essential services. If a company pays a bribe to secure a contract to supply electricity or water, for example, and the poor buy the electricity or water, then they will be paying an artificially high price for that service. Furthermore, specific goods and services may be bought that would not otherwise have been bought at all. There will almost certainly be over-investment in capital goods (‘white elephant’ projects, large defence contracts) at the expense of GDP growth. Thirdly, corruption leads to infringement of civil and political rights, for example, granting timber rights in an area where indigenous tribes gain their living, bribing a judge or court official, interfering with the electoral process. Corruption, and the secretiveness associated with it, may become one of the props of an authoritarian state. Corrupt leaders will be reluctant to relinquish their hold on the national purse and may resort to human rights abuse in order to stay in power. (Burma is a clear case in point.) In other circumstances corruption may so undermine the formal processes and institutions of the state that it becomes almost irrelevant. There are a number of cases (Iran, Nicaragua, Sierra Leone and former Zaïre) where high-level and systemic corruption has been an ingredient in sparking civilian unrest, even revolution. The poor are almost sure to suffer in the ensuing dislocation. Corruption has further ramifications. When corrupt leaders waste aid money, siphon off national resources and build up foreign debt (so that government revenues are then diverted into debt-servicing), or when the shadow economy flourishes at the expense of the aboveboard economy, then government revenue is reduced. ‘On the basis of timber known to be exported [from Cambodia] in 1995 and 1996, US$ 400 million should have gone into the state budget, but only 10 million went in.’ 9 21 What is lost to the common purse through this ‘grand corruption’ is, by definition, not available for the provision of public services. When public services decline it is the poor who suffer. They are the ones most dependent on those services, and they do not have the resources to pursue exit strategies. If, for example, government schools decline because they are under-funded then the poor cannot send their children to private schools. The ramifications spread yet further. Productive foreign investment may be lost. Before the Asian crisis of 1997/98 there were some who argued that corruption was not harmful, it merely greased the wheels of commerce. It was pointed out that some countries which ranked high in surveys of the level of corruption, also excelled in economic growth. The World Development Report notes that the question of predictability (the amount to be paid, the certainty of outcome) throws some light on this apparent paradox. ‘For a given level of corruption, countries with more predictable corruption have higher investment rates.’ However, the Report went on to state that even in these countries corruption had an adverse impact on economic performance, because the higher transaction costs and increased uncertainty put off potential investors. Time magazine 23 quotes research by Professor Shang-Jin Wei of Harvard School of Government to the effect that the high level of corruption in Mexico compared with Singapore was the equivalent of a 24 per cent increase in the marginal rate of taxation. 22 And the ramifications spread yet further again. A conservationist, Lansen Olsen, in a letter to the Transparency International Newsletter 10 24 notes that “political corruption is a major feature of the political habitat in which wildlife conservation efforts sink or swim”. When corruption breaches regulations designed to protect the environment, everyone suffers in the longterm, as the loss of primary forest leads to soil erosion, local climate change etc, but it is the poor who have the smallest resources with which to weather environmental degradation. Corruption can also have ugly and unpredictable consequences for the (Western) briber. As soon as he pays he begins to lose control. If he does not get what he paid for he is in no position to complain. Having broken the law he is vulnerable to blackmail. If he tries to break the corrupt relationship he may face a variety of threats, including the threat of violence.
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Bryan R. Evans “The Cost of Corruption” http://www.tearfund.org/webdocs/Website/Campaigning/Policy%20and%20research/The%20cost%20of%20corruption.pdf
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corruption infringes the fundamental human right to fair treatment. when one person bribes a public official he acquires a privileged status in relation to others. corruption results in biased decision-making, as considerations of personal enrichment take precedence over the establishment of rights for all. Government expenditure will be prioritised according to opportunities to extort bribes rather than on the basis of public welfare, and companies will be preferred on the basis of their willingness to pay corruption leads to infringement of civil and political rights Corrupt leaders will be reluctant to relinquish their hold on the national purse and may resort to human rights abuse in order to stay in power. When corrupt leaders waste aid money, siphon off national resources and build up foreign debt government revenue is reduced. Productive foreign investment may be lost corruption had an adverse impact on economic performance, because the higher transaction costs and increased uncertainty put off potential investors. When corruption breaches regulations designed to protect the environment, everyone suffers in the longterm, as the loss of primary forest leads to soil erosion, local climate change
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Government Corruption inherently wrong—hurts human rights, economy, and the environment
| 5,828 | 88 | 1,219 | 937 | 10 | 183 | 0.010672 | 0.195304 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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Case Negatives
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2013
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5,461 |
"Venezuela has this rapidly growing problem, and won't even deal with the DEA," he told IPS. "Venezuela should be worried as well. If you have that amount of cocaine going through the country, you're risking ending up like Mexico, with powerful organised crime and violence. No leader wants violence." Rather than siding outright with narco-traffickers, it's likely that Venezuela doesn't have the internal security capacity to deal with the problem, Isaacson said, noting that despite large oil revenues, Chavez has not properly addressed public safety. "You've seen it happen in Colombia, Mexico and Central America. A country not set up to combat the money of crime and narco-trafficking just gets steamrolled by it. That could be what you're seeing in Venezuela."
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Kurtzleben and Gharib ’09 (Danielle Kurtzleben and Ali Gharib, Business and Economics Kurtzleben is a reporter at US News & World Report, she was a research coder at Project for Excellence in Journalism -- Pew Research Center, Research Assistant at George Washington University, and Editorial Intern at Rake Publishing. Gharib is a national security reporter for ThinkProgress.org covering U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, particularly Iran. Before joining the Center for American Progress, he wrote and blogged for Inter Press Service as well as the Columbia Journalism Review’s website, ForeignPolicy.com, and AlterNet, among other outlets. Ali holds a B.A. in philosophy from Boston College, a M.S. in philosophy and public policy from the London School of Economics, and an M.S. in journalism from Columbia University.“ Venezuela Drug Trafficking Getting Wore, Says U.S. Report.” July, 20, 2009, http://ipsnorthamerica.net/news.php?idnews=2429)
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Venezuela has this rapidly growing problem, and won't even deal with the DEA Venezuela should be worried . If you have that amount of cocaine going through the country, you're risking it's likely that Venezuela doesn't have the internal security capacity to deal with the problem Chavez has not properly addressed public safety. "You've seen it happen in Colombia, Mexico and Central America. A country not set up to combat the money of crime and narco-trafficking just gets steamrolled by it. That could be what you're seeing in Venezuela."
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Drug trafficking destroys internal security
| 767 | 44 | 541 | 121 | 5 | 89 | 0.041322 | 0.735537 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,462 |
Drug use has played a critical role in the spread of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in several developing countries, and threatens to become an important vector for HIV transmission in others. Some governments have begun to develop policies and interventions targeted to injecting drug users, while others are hesitant to recognize the problem. Part of the difficulty in developing HIV prevention strategies for this group is a lack of knowledge about factors influencing drug use and the spread of HIV. Governments and policymakers must have an understanding of the patterns and determinants of drug use and factors leading to the spread of HIV in this group in order to design appropriate interventions and prevention strategies. HIV transmission among drug users is most often associated with injecting drug use, but there is growing evidence that other types of drug use, including the nasal ingestion and inhalation of cocaine and crack cocaine, as well as use of other stimulants also influence the spread of HIV. Heroin use has been increasing worldwide, and while many users smoke the drug, there is also a trend toward increasing injection in some areas (Stimson 1996). Injecting drug use has been identified in over 50 developing countries, and HIV transmission associated with injecting drug use has been reported in at least half of these (Stimson 1996). In addition, HIV seroprevalence among injectors accounts for the majority or a large minority of all HIV positive cases in some developing countries. Snorting of cocaine and smoking of crack cocaine are also prevalent in several developing countries (Oritz, 1994; Surratt, et al. 1996b). The risky sexual behavior associated with this type of drug use contributes to HIV spread among the non- injecting population. The high rate of HIV seroprevalence among the drug-using risk group in itself poses a major health problem of international concern. However, drug-related HIV transmission does not remain within the confines of this group. Drug users also function as a “bridging group,” that is, a bridge for HIV transmission between a core HIV risk group and the general population. In most areas where HIV is prevalent among injecting drug users, the drug users act as the primary source for HIV transmission in the heterosexual population and in perinatal transmission as well (Des Jarlais, 1992). Thus, the extent of the HIV pandemic associated with drug use in some developing countries has expanded beyond this risk group to include the sexual partners and children of drug 3 users. This has important economic and policy implications for decisions regarding HIV prevention and intervention measures targeted to certain risk groups. Some governments have made an extensive effort to address HIV among drug users. Specific interventions have included needle exchange programs, methadone treatment facilities, and information and education campaigns that promote needle and syringe disinfecting techniques. Some of these programs have met with success, resulting in stabilization of HIV prevalence rates among the injecting drug using population. However, many countries are experiencing an increase in HIV among the partners of IDUs, who are not drug injectors themselves. Additional evidence on behavior change among IDUs indicates that while they are able to reduce risk through decreased needle sharing and increased cleaning practices, they have not changed their sexual behavior, particularly regarding condom use (Jain, et al. 1989; Neaigus, et al. 1990; Des Jarlais and Friedman 1988a; Van de Hoek, et al. 1990). Given the extent of HIV transmission associated with drug use, it is important to examine determinants of drug use and related behaviors in developing countries where this is currently a problem, and where this may become a problem in the future. This paper will provide a review of literature on injecting drug use and HIV in developing countries. First, levels of HIV infection among drug users in various countries, to the extent that it is available, will be presented. The second section will focus on the role of IDUs in introducing HIV into the general population. Included in this section will be discussion of specific behavioral risk factors associated with HIV transmission. Third, I will present the patterns of drug use in developing countries and discuss factors influencing the global diffusion of heroin and injecting drug use. Fourth, specific practices that facilitate the spread of HIV among IDUs will be presented. Fifth, I will discuss interventions to reduce HIV transmission among IDUs, including policies and programs to reduce demand and supply of drugs, as well as programs of harm reduction. Finally, I will review issues to consider when developing HIV policies and programs targeted to injecting drug users. Several countries have an opportunity to reduce the likelihood of full-scale HIV/AIDS epidemics by quick action featuring targeted, proven interventions to injecting drug users; however, political and cultural factors may constrain governments and NGOs in developing HIV prevention strategies2
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Riehman 96 [Kara S. October 1996 “Injecting Drug Use and AIDS in Developing Countries: Determinants and Issues for Policy Consideration” Kara Riehman, PhD is a Program Director in the Statistics and Evaluation Center at the American Cancer Society siteresources.worldbank.org]
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Drug use has played a critical role in the spread of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in several developing countries, a become an important vector for HIV transmission in others. Some governments are hesitant to recognize the problem. Part of the difficulty in developing HIV prevention strategies for this group is a lack of knowledge about factors influencing drug use and the spread of HIV is growing evidence that other types of drug use, including the nasal ingestion and inhalation of cocaine and crack cocaine, as well as use of other stimulants also influence the spread of HIV Injecting drug use has been identified in over 50 developing countries, and HIV transmission associated with injecting drug use has been reported in at least half of these (Stimson 1996). In addition, HIV seroprevalence among injectors accounts for the majority or a large minority of all HIV positive cases in some developing countries. Snorting of cocaine and smoking of crack cocaine are also prevalent in several developing countries (Oritz, 1994; Surratt, et al. 1996b). The risky sexual behavior associated with this type of drug use contributes to HIV spread among the non- injecting population. rate of HIV seroprevalence among the drug-using risk group in itself poses a major health problem of international concern. However, drug-related HIV transmission does not remain within the confines of this group. Drug users also function as a “bridging group,” that is, a bridge for HIV transmission between a core HIV risk group and the general population. In most areas where HIV is prevalent among injecting drug users, the extent of the HIV pandemic associated with drug use in some developing countries has expanded beyond this risk group to include the sexual partners and children of drug 3 users. This has important economic and policy implications for decisions regarding HIV prevention and intervention measures targeted to certain risk groups they have not changed their sexual behavior, particularly regarding condom use it is important to examine determinants of drug use and related behaviors in developing countries where this is currently a problem, and where this may become a problem in the future.
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( )The use of drugs leads to the spred of HIV
| 5,129 | 46 | 2,213 | 797 | 11 | 353 | 0.013802 | 0.442911 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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Case Negatives
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2013
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5,463 |
, Middle Eastern terrorist groups are operating support cells in Venezuela and other locations in the Andean region. A two-month review by U.S. News, including interviews with dozens of U.S. and Latin American sources, confirms the terrorist activity. In particular, the magazine has learned that thousands of Venezuelan identity documents are being distributed to foreigners from Middle Eastern nations, including Syria, Pakistan, Egypt, and Lebanon. Venezuela is supporting armed opposition groups from neighboring Colombia;these groups are on the official U.S. list of terrorist organizations and are also tied to drug trafficking. Maps obtained by U.S. News, as well as eyewitness accounts, pinpoint the location of training camps used by Colombian rebels, a top rebel leader, and Venezuelan armed groups. Cubans are working inside Venezuela ’s paramilitary and intelligence apparatus. The coordination between Cuba and Venezuela is the latest sign that Venezuelan President Chavez is modeling his government on Castro’s Cuba. The Venezuelan government denies supporting Middle Eastern terrorist groups and says that no Cubans are operating inside its intelligence agencies. Venezuela has long denied providing aid to the Colombian guerrilla groups. Venezuela is providing support - including identity documents - that could prove useful to radical Islamic groups, say U.S. officials. U.S. News has learned that Chavez’s government has issued thousands of cedulas, the equivalent of Social Security cards, to people from places such as Cuba, Colombia, and Middle Eastern nations that play host to foreign terrorist organizations. An American official with firsthand knowledge of the ID scheme has seen computer spreadsheets with names of people organized by nationality. “The list easily totaled several thousand,” the official says. “Colombians were the largest group; there were more than a thousand of them. It also included many from Middle Eastern ‘countries of interest’ like Syria, Egypt, Pakistan, Lebanon.” The official adds: “It was shocking to see how extensive the list was.” U.S. officials believe that the Venezuelan government is issuing the documents to people who should not be getting them and that some of these cedulas were subsequently used to obtain Venezuelan passports and even American visas, which could allow the holder to elude immigration checks and enter the United States. U.S. officials say that the cedulas are also being used by Colombian subversives and by some Venezuelan officials to travel surreptitiously. The suspicious links between Venezuela and Islamic radicalism are multiplying. American law enforcement and intelligence officials are exploring whether there is an al Qaeda connection - specifically, they want to know if a Venezuelan of Arab descent named Hakim Mamad al Diab Fatah had ties to any of the September 11 hijackers. The United States deported Diab Fatah to Venezuela for immigration violations in March 2002. A U.S. intelligence official says that Diab Fatah is still a “person of interest” and that his family in Venezuela is “a well-known clan associated with extremist and illicit activity” in northern Venezuela. But when U.S. officials sought Diab Fatah for further questioning, they were told by Venezuelan offi- cials that he was not in the country. Diab Fatah may also be tied to the Caracas mosque of Sheik Ibrahim bin Abdul Aziz, which has caught i n v e s t i g a t o r s ’ attention. One of the mosque’s officials, also a Venezuelan of Arab descent, was recently arrested in London for carrying a grenade on a Caracas-London flight. Sympathy. Latin America’s Arab communities are also becoming centers for terrorist sympathizers. AVenezuelan analyst who recently visited Margarita Island, a free zone on the north coast of Venezuela run largely by Arab merchants from Lebanon and Iran, described the Venezuelan- Arab Friendship Association as a “fortress” with armed guards outside. A U.S. official says the association has been long known as a location of illicit activities. In addition, support “cells” for the groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamiyya al Gammat are active on Margarita, according to Gen. James Hill, the head of the U.S. Southern Command. In a speech last month, Hill said: “These groups generate funds through money laundering, drug trafficking, or arms deals and make millions of dollars every year via their multiple illicit activities. These logistic cells reach back to the Middle East.” Venezuela’s support for terrorist organizations isn’t limited to those based in Lebanon or Egypt. Colombia’s complaints that Venezuela is actively aiding two Colombian armed groups on the U.S. State Department’s terrorist list - the FARC and the ELN - have been met by heated Venezuelan denials. But U.S. News has obtained detailed information demonstrating that camps used by the Colombian rebels exist inside Venezuela; maps actually pinpoint the location of the camps, and firsthand reports describe visits by Venezuelan officials. The armed Colombian groups, though they have waged no attacks on U.S. soil, are among the most active terrorist groups in the world, and several of their leaders have been indicted in the United States for the killings and kidnappings of Americans and for drug trafficking. The FARC’s principal camp in Venezuela is in the Perija mountains near an Indian village called Resumidero, according to maps and testimony from FARC deserters. The Resumidero base is home to one of the FARC’s top leaders, Ivan Marquez, and can accommodate 700 people. Marquez commands 1,000 fighters and, according to one deserter’s account, oversees the training of hundreds more would-be guerrillas. Aclandestine FARC radio station is located about 30 miles a w a y, on the Colombian-Venezuelan border. Resumidero, which has 100 huts and three houses for Marquez and other leaders, is two days’walk from another camp called Asamblea, near the city of Machiques, which is about 35 miles inside Venezuelan territory. That camp, which has 25 houses and even Internet access, is used to train still more more fighters. U.S. News has also obtained documents that offer firsthand accounts - from people inside the camps - that illustrate the extent of Venezuela’s backing of the Colombian rebels. According to debriefings of former rebels, some 60 Venezuelan soldiers, plus two Venezuelan officers, provide training to the FARC rebels at the Resumidero camp. Visitors to the camp have included Venezuelan civilians and Europeans. A 31-year- old FARC deserter who spent seven months at FARC camps inside Venezuela, says he witnessed Venezuelan officers arrive by helicopter. He says his unit twice ambushed the Colombian Army and then fled to sanctuary in Venezuela. He also asserts that “abundant ammunition” - a cache in April included 2,500 rounds of 7.62mm and .223- caliber ammunition for automatic rifles - has been shipped across the border to Colombia. Another guerrilla who turned herself in last July says she saw FARC leaders heading for a camp called Rio Verde in Venezuela. And a former guerrilla, a 32- year-old man, says he fled from battle to a camp called Sastreria in Venezuela. Drug money helps fuel the fighting. Another FARC source told U.S. News that he witnessed a FARC logistics chief trade 8 kilograms of cocaine and cash for guns from a Venezuelan colonel, who arranged the shipments from Venezuelan Army stocks. Colombian officials have documented many such guns-for-drugs trades; they also confirm the existence of training camps - and even spots where hostages are held - along Venezuela’s frontier from the flatlands of Arauca northward to the mountains of Perija. Adds a U.S. official: “It’s no secret the level of cooperation that the Venezuelan government is giving to the Colombian groups, from the shipment of arms in, to the shipment of drugs out, to the movement of people in and out of Colombia.” During an August visit to the region, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Richard Myers, went so far as to suggest that Venezuela’s support for terrorists in Colombia was like Syria’s support for terrorists in Iraq. “It is simply not helpful when countries
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Robinson 03 [Linda, Linda Robinson is Senior Policy Analyst at RAND. In 2012-13 she was also a Public Policy Scholar at the Wilson Center, and in 2011-12 she was a senior adjunct fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (October 6, 2003) Terror Close To Home “jewishpoliticalchronicle.org”]
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Middle Eastern terrorist groups are operating support cells in Venezuela a . A two-month review by U.S. News, including interviews with dozens of U.S. and Latin American sources, confirms the terrorist activity. thousands of Venezuelan identity documents are being distributed to foreigners from Middle Eastern nations Venezuela is supporting armed opposition groups the Venezuela is providing support - including identity documents - that could prove useful to radical Islamic groups, U.S. officials believe that the Venezuelan government is issuing the documents to people who should not be getting them and that some of these cedulas were subsequently used to obtain Venezuelan passports and even American visas, which could allow the holder to elude immigration checks and enter the United States. These groups generate funds through money laundering, drug trafficking, or arms deals and make millions of dollars every year via their multiple illicit activities. These logistic cells reach back to the Middle East.” Venezuela’s support for terrorist organizations isn’t limited to those based in Lebanon or Egypt. Colombian groups, though they have waged no attacks on U.S. soil, are among the most active terrorist groups in the world, and several of their leaders have been indicted in the United States for the killings and kidnappings of Americans and for drug trafficking. “It’s no secret the level of cooperation that the Venezuelan government is giving to the Colombian groups, from the shipment of arms in, to the shipment of drugs out, to the movement of people in and out of Colombia.”
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( ) Drug trafficking funds terrorist sectors in Venezuela- studies prove
| 8,194 | 73 | 1,599 | 1,295 | 11 | 250 | 0.008494 | 0.19305 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
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Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,464 |
CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela on Sunday rejected U.S. requests to resume cooperation in the war on drugs, saying it has made progress despite an alleged fourfold-gain in the amount of Colombian cocaine now passing through its territory. In the latest barb-trading over the issue, Venezuela dismissed U.S. attempts to renew talks on drugs as "useless and inopportune," saying U.S. officials should focus on slashing demand for drugs at home rather than blaming setbacks on other nations' supposed lack of cooperation. "The anti-drug fight in Venezuela has shown significant progress during recent years, especially since the government ended official cooperation programs with the DEA," Venezuela's foreign ministry said in a statement. President Hugo Chavez suspended cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency in August 2005, accusing its agents of espionage. Since then, Venezuela has refused to help U.S. officials combat drug trafficking, White House drug czar John Walters said. U.S. law enforcement has detected a wave of flights that depart Venezuela and drop large loads of cocaine off the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, while other multi-ton loads are moved by boat and air to west Africa — a way station for shipments to Europe, Walters said. He said the flow of Colombian cocaine through Venezuela has quadrupled since 2004, reaching an estimated 282 tons last year. On Sunday, Chavez responded angrily to Walter's comments, calling him "stupid" for suggesting that drug smuggling through Venezuela has increased. Chavez also took issue with recent statements made by U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy, saying the diplomat is risking possible expulsion from Venezuela and would soon be "packing his bags" if he's not careful. Duddy told reporters on Saturday that deteriorating diplomatic relations between Caracas and Washington are giving drug smugglers the upper hand.
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AP ’08 (News agency, “ Venezuela rejects US bid for Anit-drug pact.” August 8, 2008, http://www.nbcnews.com/id/26487635/ns/world_news-venezuela/t/venezuela-rejects-us-bid-anti-drugs-pact/)
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Venezuela rejected U.S. requests to resume cooperation in the war on drugs, saying it has made progress , Venezuela dismissed U.S. attempts to renew talks on drugs as "useless and inopportune," . President Hugo Chavez suspended cooperation with the U.S. D E A accusing its agents of espionage. Since then, Venezuela has refused to help U.S. officials combat drug trafficking, Walters said the flow of Colombian cocaine through Venezuela has quadrupled Chavez responded angrily to Walter's comments, calling him "stupid" for suggesting that drug smuggling through Venezuela has increased
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Venezuela say no to US drug efforts
| 1,887 | 35 | 586 | 288 | 7 | 89 | 0.024306 | 0.309028 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,465 |
In this brief video by Press TV, the Venezuelan Minister of Interior and Justice, Tarek El Aissami, reacts to repeated U.S. accusations that Venezuela is not doing enough to stop drug trafficking in the American continent. The minister has said that the DEA's support is no longer needed and that Venezuela in turn is willing to help the U.S. or any other country to reduce drug trafficking rates. According to El Aissami, one year after the Venezuelan government broke relations with the DEA in 2004, drug seizures doubled and important chiefs of drug cartels were captured. El Aissami has also said that this separation from the U.S. has allowed the government to improve anti-drug policies. Now communities have become a key factor to draw a new sovereign plan which does not obey foreign guidelines. EL Aissami has informed that more than 46 million dollars were invested in 2010 to fight drug trafficking in Venezuela. This year, the recently created National Anti-Drug Fund has allocated more than 116 million dollars on community prevention projects and to strengthen organisations that work towards eradicating drug trafficking. El Aissimi has assured that Venezuela has signed more than 30 international cooperation agreements of shared responsibility. He also said that while the DEA was operating in Venezuela they wanted to set up an operations base in the country to practice espionage, as well as paying witnesses with shares from seized drugs. The Venezuelan government considers that the U.S. has a bigger share of responsibility in stimulating drug trafficking operations since Venezuela is not a drug producing country, while most of the drugs produced in the world end up in the hands of American citizens.
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Press TV ’11 (Press TV, news agency, “Venezuela Fights to Stop Drug Trafficking in the American Continent.” July 31, 2011 http://venezuelanalysis.com/video/6389)
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the Venezuelan Minister of Interior and Justice said that the DEA's support is no longer needed and that Venezuela one year after the Venezuelan government broke relations with the DEA in 2004, drug seizures doubled and important chiefs of drug cartels were captured that this separation from the U.S. has allowed the government to improve anti-drug policies. more than 46 million dollars were invested in 2010 to fight drug trafficking in Venezuela , the National Anti-Drug Fund has allocated more than 116 million dollars on community prevention projects Venezuela has signed more than 30 international cooperation agreements of shared responsibility.
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Say no, empirics prove they backlash against US drug efforts
| 1,725 | 61 | 653 | 278 | 10 | 100 | 0.035971 | 0.359712 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
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Michigan State (SDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
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5,466 |
There are those who claim that the lobby's clout is vastly exaggerated, insisting that far from being a sinister body subverting US foreign policy in one of the world's most unstable regions, it is pushing at an open door. Even without a lobby, the thesis runs, Americans would be overwhelmingly supportive of Israel. Which may be true, but misses the point. Power lies in the perception of power, and the Israel lobby, led by Aipac, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, is perceived to have a heck of a lot of it. Fall foul of the Israel lobby, with its financial muscle and ability to put the word out, and, it is said, your political career may be doomed. That, presumably, was what Hagel was getting at when he spoke of people in Congress being "intimidated". Exhibit A in this argument is Chuck Percy, the three-term Republican Senator from Illinois said to have been defeated in 1984 as a result of an Aipac-led campaign against him. Percy's offence, according to a committee official at the time, was to have shown "insensitivity and even hostility to our concerns". Also mentioned is George Bush Snr's failed 1992 re-election campaign, to which his short-lived block on loan guarantees to Israel while it continued to expand settlements may have contributed. True or false? It's impossible to say. What matters is the perception. But one thing is incontestable. Congress is overwhelmingly supportive of Israel. Probably no more than a dozen of the 435 Representatives can remotely be described as "pro-Palestinian", while the mood in the Senate may be divined from a 2000 resolution expressing support for Israel, signed by 96 of its members (Hagel was one of the four who did not). Not for nothing did Pat Buchanan once describe Congress as "Israeli-occupied territory" – so much so that an Israeli prime minister at odds with the White House can bypass the President, making his case directly to an Aipac conference or on Capitol Hill. Take Benjamin Netanyahu when he delivered an address to Congress in May 2011. I remember the assembled lawmakers jumping up and down like jack-in-the-boxes to give him 29 standing ovations. Whatever else, Bibi would never have received an acclamation like that in the Knesset. If Chuck Hagel doesn't make it to the Pentagon, opposition to him from the Israel lobby won't have been the only reason, or even the main reason. But one thing you can be sure of. A good few more on Capitol Hill will have been "intimidated".
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Cornwell ’13 (Rupert Cornwell, writer for the independent since 1986, winner of two British Press Awards. He previously as a foreign correspondent for the Financial Times and Reuters, a diplomatic correspondent, leader writer and columnist, and a Washington bureau editor. “So, just how powerful is the Israel lobby in the US?” February 3, 2013. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/so-just-how-powerful-is-the-israel-lobby-in-the-us-8478432.html)
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There are those who claim that the lobby's clout is vastly exaggerated is pushing at an open door . Power lies in the perception of power, and the Israel lobby, led by Aipac , is perceived to have a a lot of it. Fall foul of the Israel lobby, with its financial muscle and ability to put the word out, and, it is said, your political career may be doomed. Congress is overwhelmingly supportive of Israel. Probably no more than a dozen of the 435 Representatives can remotely be described as "pro-Palestinian",
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Israel lobby extremely powerful—perception key
| 2,473 | 46 | 509 | 420 | 5 | 92 | 0.011905 | 0.219048 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,467 |
Maduro adopts Beijing-friendly approach of predecessor. The new government of Venezuela will continue to prioritize its relations with China and expects to learn from China's development, Venezuelan Vice-President Jorge Arreaza said in Beijing on Thursday. Arreaza, who began an official five-day visit to China on Wednesday, made the remarks while meeting Vice-President Li Yuanchao at the Great Hall of the People. Observers said there is no need to worry about changes in Venezuela's China policies in the post-Chavez period. Frequent high-level visits showed that the two nations are trying to consolidate ties. "Apparently, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has adopted Chavez's policies on China," said Wu Baiyi, deputy head of the Institution of Latin American Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "Besides, the Venezuelan economy's steady development and its oil exports are closely linked to China," he said. Li told Arreaza that the two nations should maintain closer high-level contacts, expand cooperation in the areas of energy, finance and agriculture, step up exchanges regarding experience in governance and deepen their strategic partnership. China and Venezuela forged a strategic partnership of common development in 2001. Li said the two nations should jointly develop a blueprint for the future development of bilateral links. Arreaza said his government will continue to prioritize its relations with China, adding that the country is ready to learn from China's experience in development and strengthen cooperation in all fields. The late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez visited China six times after he took office in 1999 and greatly encouraged boosting ties. Bilateral trade reached $23 billion in 2012. According to the Chinese embassy in Venezuela, China has provided more than $30 billion in financing to Venezuela to push forward nearly 300 projects of mutual cooperation. There have been concerns among Chinese investors that favorable policies on China might change under the new government. Maduro told a visiting high-ranking Chinese official after Chavez's funeral in March that the best way to pay tribute to the late leader was to keep deepening the strategic partnership with China. Beijing and Caracas have maintained frequent mutual visits of high-level officials since then. Li Yuanchao visited Venezuela for five days in May and met with key leaders including Maduro, Arreaza, and President of the Venezuelan National Assembly Diosdado Cabello. The Foreign Ministry said the visit was of great importance because the two countries had just completed a transition of leadership. Cabello paid a visit to China in July, several days before Arreaza's China trip. Cabello said ahead of the visit that Venezuela's relations with China were stable and that cooperation between the two nations would continue. He said Venezuela would like to be an important partner in China's energy imports. China is a major source of Venezuela's export income, he said. Cabello, who is also the first vice-president of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela, said the party will dispatch 50 party members to learn in China in September. He said such communication will help the development of the country and the party. Venezuelan Oil and Mining Minister Rafael Ramirez also came to Beijing in June. Ramirez told reporters that Venezuela exported 626,000 barrels of oil per day to China in the first four months of this year, 18 percent more than the same period last year. He said the figure is expected to reach 1 million barrels per day within two years. In 2005, the figure was only 49,000 barrels per day. "Chinese enterprises are expanding investment in Venezuela, a reflection of their confidence in the Venezuelan economy, and its relations with China," said Wu Baiyi. Wang Zhen, former Chinese ambassador to Venezuela, said many other political parties in Venezuela, including the opposition, also attach great importance to ties with Beijing. Zhang Fan contributed to this story.
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China Daily Asia Weekly ‘13 (China Daily Asia Weekly features news, views and analyses. The newspaper is printed and distributed in major countries across Asia, including Australia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Vietnam. Asia Weekly has a dedicated pool of professional writers with proven credentials across the region. “Venezuela to maintain policies toward China.” July 19th, 2013 http://www.chinadailyasia.com/news/2013-07/19/content_15079032.html)
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Maduro will continue to prioritize relations with China there is no need to worry about changes in Venezuela's China policies in the post-Chavez period Frequent high-level visits showed that the two nations are trying to consolidate ties Venezuelan economy's development and oil exports are closely linked to China the two nations should maintain closer high-level contacts, expand cooperation in the areas of energy, , step up exchanges regarding experience in governance and deepen their strategic partnership Arreaza said his government will to prioritize its relations with China the country is ready to learn from China's experience and strengthen cooperation in all fields Maduro told a Chinese official the best way to pay tribute to the late leader was to keep deepening the strategic partnership with China He said Venezuela would like to be an important partner in China's energy imports. Venezuelan Oil and Mining Minister came to Beijing in June Venezuela exported 626,000 barrels of oil per day to China many other political parties in Venezuela, including the opposition, also attach great importance to ties with Beijing
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Venezuela will work with China on energy sector
| 4,034 | 48 | 1,135 | 627 | 8 | 177 | 0.012759 | 0.282297 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,468 |
In late September, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez visited China as his second stop on a multi-continent diplomatic mission. Cuba was his first stop, followed by China, Russia, Belarus, France and finally Portugal. During his brief time in Beijing, Chávez met with several high ranking Chinese officials, including President Hu Jintao. The two countries signed several mutual cooperation agreements involving education, sports, trade, telecommunications, and most importantly, oil. The Oil Deals President Chávez has repeatedly asserted that he envisions China as an important global oil consumer. Some of the agreements reached by Caracas and Beijing will boost Venezuela's oil exports to China. By expanding China's share of Venezuela's oil consumption, the South American country could decrease its heavy dependence on the U.S. market, which has been the largest consumer of Venezuelan oil. According to the Venezuelan media, the two countries will cooperate to build four tankers and at least two refineries. The first refinery will be located in the oil-rich Orinoco Belt in Venezuela and the other in China's coastal province of Guangdong. Venezuela's state-run oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) will be responsible for shipping the oil to its Asian counterpart. Additionally, the two nations will double the amount of capital invested in existing development projects jointly undertaken by Beijing and Caracas beginning a few years ago, from $6 billion to $12 billion. China will contribute two-thirds of the funds, with an allotted amount going toward increasing Venezuelan oil exports, according to Chávez. The South American leader's goal is to further diversify Caracas' petroleum client base through reaching an output of 500 thousand barrels of crude per day (bpd) to China by 2009 and to double that figure by 2012. Ultimately, the Venezuelan president optimistically hopes to become the top oil supplier to China. Same Summit, Different Attitudes President Chávez does not hide his intentions to strengthen a political alliance expand upon economic ties with China, which are already quite strong. China is about to launch the first Venezuelan satellite, the Simón Bolivar, on November 1, 2008. Moreover, the Southern American country leader has tried to link the two geographically remote countries together through a shared ideology; he has claimed that he is a "Maoist." During a trip to China in 2004, Chávez said that if Simón Bolivar and Mao Zedong had met, they would have been good friends for they upheld the same humanitarian ideals. Regardless of Chávez's grandiose statements, Beijing has remained cautiously careful regarding its relationship with the Venezuelan leader. When asked about Chávez's visit to China in a press conference staged by the foreign ministry in Beijing, the spokesperson Jiang Yu answered that bilateral ties between China and Venezuela were "normal state-to-state" relations. Rhetoric aside, Venezuela also revealed more to the press about the detailed strategy on which the two countries will cooperate in the energy sector. For example, President Chávez disclosed the plan regarding the joint construction of four oil tankers as well as the expansion of a joint investment fund. On the other hand, China's official news agency, Xinhua, has used vague language to describe China-Venezuela relations. The oil cooperation between the two countries regarding oil refinery and transportation is collaborative in every aspect. Since the Venezuela-China agreement only represents four percent of Chinese imported oil, other countries' trade relationships with Venezuela will not be adversely affected, Beijing clarified. Chávez led the media to believe that relations with China will go far beyond just oil. Prior to his departure to China, he publicly stated that his country would purchase 24 K-8 aircrafts from China in order to replace much older U.S. models. However, Beijing has never confirmed this announcement and there has been no further details regarding such a military deal between the two states. When asked about it, the Chinese spokesperson stated that she did not "have the information" about any such putative military trade deal. Chávez once said that China is an important ally of Venezuela on the anti-imperialism agenda. He claimed that "it is more important to be in Beijing than to be in New York." Regarding the current financial crisis in the U.S., Chávez announced that both China and Venezuela are not affected by the crises because both countries "had and are having revolutions." According to China's President Hu, "Chávez is a good friend of Chinese people." However, in contrast with Chávez's fervent expressions, Beijing has shown some restraint in defining China's relations with Venezuela as not relating to "any other third party or contain any ideology." It is a bilateral relationship which aims to enhance mutual benefit and development. By stating that China is willing to establish friendly relations with every Latin American country, this assertion somewhat downplays the ideological appeal of Chávez to China.
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Liu ’08 (Iris Liu, research associate for Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a nonprofit, tax-exempt independent research and information organization. “Oil-Rich Venezuela Meets Oil-Hungry China.” October 28th, 2008, http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/3898)
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The two countries signed several mutual cooperation agreements involving most importantly, oil The Oil Deals asserted China as an important global oil consumer agreements Beijing will boost Venezuela's oil exports to China , the two countries will cooperate to build four tankers and at least two refineries and the two nations will double the amount of capital invested in existing development China will contribute two-thirds of the funds with an allotted amount going toward increasing Venezuelan oil exports the Venezuelan president hopes to become the top oil supplier to China Chávez does not hide intentions to expand upon economic ties with China Venezuela revealed the detailed strategy on which the two countries will cooperate in the energy sector. Chávez disclosed the plan regarding the joint construction of four oil tankers as well as the expansion of a joint investment fund . The oil cooperation between the two countries regarding oil refinery and transportation is collaborative in every aspect
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China will solve for oil—empirics prove
| 5,119 | 40 | 1,014 | 787 | 6 | 158 | 0.007624 | 0.200762 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,469 |
CARACAS, March 15 (Reuters) - Venezuela's post-Chavez oil policy will increasingly focus on deals with China and Russia if acting President Nicolas Maduro wins an April 14 election to continue his late boss's socialist programs. During his 14 years in power, Hugo Chavez nationalized most of the OPEC nation's oil industry with the aim of putting its crude reserves - the biggest in the world - at the service of his power base, Venezuela's poor majority. Turning away from the United States, the traditional top buyer of Venezuelan oil, Chavez also sharply increased fuel sales to China and turned Beijing into his government's biggest source of foreign funding. "We are not going to change one iota of the fundamental themes of President Chavez's policies," Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said in a recent interview with a local TV station. "We have a very important strategic relationship with China, which we're going to continue deepening and cultivating. It's the same with our cooperation with Russia ... Chavez's policies are more alive than ever, and we will push ahead with them." Maduro, the late president's preferred successor, faces Henrique Capriles, governor of Miranda state, in the forthcoming election. The vote was called after Chavez's death last week following a two-year battle with cancer. If Maduro wins, he can be expected to increase oil sales to political allies at the expense of the United States, while taking on more debt from those partners. Venezuela is sending China about 430,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude and products, up from just a few thousand bpd in 2005, in repayment of loans totaling $36 billion. The biggest Chinese energy company, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), is a key part of Venezuela's efforts to tap its enormous Orinoco extra heavy crude belt, one of the planet's largest hydrocarbon reserves. CNPC has joined with state oil company PDVSA in a joint venture in the Orinoco called Petrourica that is expected to begin producing within weeks. A PDVSA project with a Russian consortium, Petromiranda, began pumping there last year. KREMLIN SUPPORT Russia has given high-level support to its energy companies' efforts in Venezuela. During a visit in 2010, then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin handed Chavez a $600 million check as part of a signing fee for Russian companies' participation in the Orinoco. And Igor Sechin, deputy prime minister and chief executive of Rosneft, Russia's top crude producer, has been a regular visitor to discuss oil deals and arms sales. Just weeks before the late Venezuelan president won re-election last October, Sechin donned a Chavez T-shirt to pose with workers as Petromiranda pumped its first barrels. Not put off by the nationalizations of recent years in Venezuela, U.S. major Chevron and and Spain's Repsol are also working with PDVSA in the Orinoco. They will be watching April's presidential election very closely. Maduro, a former bus driver and union leader, has pitched his candidacy as the continuation of Chavez's "revolution." Two recent opinion polls gave him a strong lead over Capriles. The opposition leader says that if he were to triumph on April 14, he would immediately end politically motivated oil deals signed during the Chavez years, including shipments to Cuba and an eight-year-old regional program called Petrocaribe that supplies more than a dozen smaller countries. He would also try to streamline PDVSA, which is widely seen as bloated and inefficient, and review all its joint ventures. But both would be time-consuming challenges, and Capriles would be under enormous pressure not to disrupt the industry's operations. Whoever wins, Venezuela is likely to import more processed fuels because of recurrent problems in its refinery network that were starkly illustrated by the Amuay disaster in August - one of the global industry's most deadly accidents in decades. 'CATCH 22' The Orinoco projects have been suffering from lack of infrastructure and delays in PDVSA's payments to service companies. Nonetheless, the government hopes they will eventually add a combined 2 million bpd of new output. It says Venezuela is currently producing about 3 million bpd. But it stopped publishing certified data in 2011, and industry experts estimate that the figure is lower than that. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said this week that the sector could deteriorate more if Maduro wins the election, and that Venezuela's next leader faced a "Catch 22" situation. Current policies of diverting of oil revenue to costly social programs could not continue, it said in a report, without putting the industry and the whole economy at considerable risk. "But neither can they be reversed without the risk of social unrest and political chaos," it added. Asked about the report, Ramirez dismissed the IEA as a "bitter enemy of the fatherland" that had been created purely to oppose political decisions taken by OPEC. "We have a completely normal oil industry, without any problems, in an expansion plan with strategic goals to boost production to 4 million bpd by 2014. We invested $22 billion last year and plan to invest $25 billion this year." The Chavez-era preferential deals with foreign allies meant PDVSA was not paid directly for almost half the crude it pumped in 2011. Meanwhile, the company has continued pressuring its joint venture collaborators to find funds to spur output. As long as the political situation remains uncertain, Barclays Capital said, PDVSA's partners have seemed unwilling to shell out for new areas to be developed, mainly in the Orinoco. "Most are maintaining their long-term plans in the country, given the great reserves, but are in wait-and-see mode."
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Wallis ’13 (Daniel,
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"We are not going to change the fundamental themes of President Chavez's policies We have a very important strategic relationship with China, which we're going to continue deepening and cultivating Maduro he can be expected to increase oil sales at the expense of the U S . Venezuela is sending China about 430,000 (bpd) of crude and products China National Petroleum Corp is a key part of Venezuela's efforts to tap its enormous Orinoco extra heavy crude belt, one of the planet's largest hydrocarbon reserves CNPC has joined with state oil company PDVSA in a joint venture in the Orinoco called Petrourica that is expected to begin producing within weeks , the government hopes they will eventually add a combined 2 million bpd of new output The International Energy Agency (IEA) said this week that the sector could deteriorate more if Maduro wins the election Ramirez dismissed the IEA as created purely to oppose political decisions taken by OPEC. "We have a completely normal oil industry, without any problems, in an expansion plan with strategic goals to boost production to 4 million bpd by 2014. We invested $22 billion last year and plan to invest $25 billion this year.
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China can solve Venezuelan oil sector
| 5,708 | 38 | 1,181 | 916 | 6 | 199 | 0.00655 | 0.217249 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,470 |
CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela announced late Friday that it was stopping the latest round of off-again-on-again efforts to improve relations with the United States in reaction to comments by the Obama administration’s nominee for United Nations ambassador. The nominee, Samantha Power, speaking before a Senate committee on Wednesday, said part of her role as ambassador would be to challenge a “crackdown on civil society” in several countries, including Venezuela. President Nicolás Maduro had already lashed out on Thursday at Ms. Power for her remarks, and late on Friday the Foreign Ministry said it was terminating efforts to improve relations with the United States. Those efforts had inched forward just last month after Secretary of State John Kerry publicly shook hands with the Venezuelan foreign minister, Elías Jaua, during an international meeting in Guatemala — one of the highest-level meetings between officials of the two countries in years. Venezuela “will never accept interference of any kind in its internal affairs,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding that it “considered terminated the process begun in the conversations in Guatemala that had as their goal the regularization of our diplomatic relations.”¶ Relations with Venezuela have long been troubled, although the country has remained a major supplier of oil to the United States. Under the previous president, Hugo Chávez, a longtime nemesis of the United States, relations were bumpy, especially after the Bush administration tacitly supported a coup that briefly ousted him.¶ Mr. Maduro, Mr. Chávez’s handpicked successor, has given mixed messages about relations with the United States.¶ In March, when Mr. Maduro was vice president, he kicked out two American military attachés, accusing them of seeking to undermine the government. After he was elected in April, he ordered the arrest of an American documentary filmmaker whom officials accused of trying to start a civil war. The filmmaker, Tim Tracy, was later expelled from the country.¶ And in recent days, in a sharp escalation of the war of words with Washington, Mr. Maduro has said he would give asylum to Edward J. Snowden, the former American intelligence contractor who leaked secrets about American intelligence programs and is staying at a Moscow airport.¶ The United States and Venezuela have not had ambassadors in each other’s capitals since 2008, when Mr. Chávez expelled the American envoy, accusing the United States of backing a group of military officers he said were plotting against him. The United States responded at the time by expelling Venezuela’s ambassador.¶ In the Guatemala meeting, Mr. Kerry said he hoped the two countries could rapidly move toward exchanging ambassadors again. But those talks never had time to gain traction. On July 12, Mr. Kerry telephoned Mr. Jaua to express concern over the asylum offer to Mr. Snowden.¶ This is not the first time that Venezuela has backed off the idea of renewed relations with the United States. The two countries quietly began talks late last year aimed at improving relations, although those ground to a halt after the health of Mr. Chávez, who had cancer, deteriorated in December. After Mr. Chávez’s death in March, a State Department official said the United States hoped that the election to replace him would meet democratic standards — prompting Mr. Jaua to angrily announce that Venezuela was halting the talks between the two countries. Venezuelan officials have repeatedly said relations with the United States should be conducted on a basis of respect.
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Neuman, 6/20/13 (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/world/americas/venezuela-stops-efforts-to-improve-us-relations.html?pagewanted=print) New York Times Andes Region correspondent/Corresponsal para la Región Andina: Venezuela, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Suriname, Guyana, Guiana.¶
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Venezuela announced late Friday that it was stopping the latest round of off-again-on-again efforts to improve relations with the United States Samantha Power said part of her role as ambassador would be to challenge a “crackdown on civil society” in several countries, including Venezuela. President Nicolás Maduro had already lashed out on Thursday at Ms. Power for her remarks, and late on Friday the Foreign Ministry said it was terminating efforts to improve relations with the United States. Venezuela “will never accept interference of any kind in its internal affairs that it “considered terminated the process begun in the conversations in Guatemala that had as their goal the regularization of our diplomatic relations.” Relations with Venezuela have long been troubled, although the country has remained a major supplier of oil to the United States Mr. Maduro, Mr. Chávez’s handpicked successor, has given mixed messages about relations with the United States Mr. Maduro has said he would give asylum to Edward J. Snowden, the former American intelligence contractor who leaked secrets about American intelligence programs and is staying at a Moscow airport. Mr. Kerry said he hoped the two countries could rapidly move toward exchanging ambassadors again This is not the first time that Venezuela has backed off the idea of renewed relations with the United States. The two countries quietly began talks late last year aimed at improving relations, although those ground to a halt after the health of Mr. Chávez, who had cancer, deteriorated in December the United States hoped that the election to replace him would meet democratic standards — prompting Mr. Jaua to angrily announce that Venezuela was halting the talks between the two countries. Venezuelan officials have repeatedly said relations with the United States should be conducted on a basis of respect.
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Venezuela isn’t interested in relations with the US – Snowden one instance
| 3,592 | 74 | 1,877 | 567 | 12 | 296 | 0.021164 | 0.522046 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,471 |
After much of 2012 shuttling back and forth between Venezuela and Cuba for surgery, Hugo Chávez is dead. Cuba’s Communist Party has shielded Fidel Castro from the public eye since his retirement, his shaky speech threatening to undermine the fiery legacy they seek to preserve. Fidel’s brother and successor Raúl, at 81, faces limited time to groom the Party’s future leadership. On the surface, the continuation of Latin American socialism is in jeopardy. Yet one need look no further than its history of oil-financed social programs, bloated bureaucracies, rising corruption, and skyrocketing inflation to realize that Latin American socialism is deeply ingrained and churning along like on its rickety path, flaws and all. Facing the realities of the global economy, the lip-service these leaders paid to Simon Bolívar and Jose Martí will give way to selective foreign investment and oil money that serves little social purpose aside from generating the funds needed to keep the current parties in power. Though Chávez’s carefully cultivated propaganda machine energized Venezuela’s poor by playing into social divisions, his policies delivered few lasting social benefits; indeed, periodic food shortages are now a way of life for all Venezuelans. Over his 14-year presidency, the populist economic policies enacted as part of Chávez’s “Bolívaran Revolution” are marred by the state’s strict control of the banking sector. By appointing party loyalists to the board of directors of the Venezuelan Central Bank (BCV), Chávez diminished its constitutionally-mandated ability to conduct independent monetary policy. This crippled the BCV’s ability to combat inflation, resulting in multiple currency devaluations that effectively wiped out the savings of the poor. These economic shocks have outweighed the benefits of Venezuelan social programs, which are completely financed by oil exports. Chávez’s government-mandated price controls also increased unemployment and resulted in minimal industrial diversification outside of the oil and manufacturing sectors. Depending on oil exports rather than developing other competitive industries is just one of Venezuela’s economic problems. It also is a key link between Venezuela and Cuba. Since 2000, Venezuela has provided oil shipments to Cuba well below market rates, amounting to $6-$8 billion in annual subsidies. This is a crucial lifeline to the hard currency-starved Cuban government, as Venezuela essentially took the place of the Soviet Union as Cuba’s primary benefactor. Until its collapse in 1991, the USSR provided $4 billion in annual oil subsidies to Cuba. The loss of these subsidies caused the GDP of Cuba to fall by nearly 50 percent between 1989 and 1993. Cheap Venezuelan oil–along with limited privatization and an opening of the island to tourism–allowed Cuba to stave off economic catastrophe. In a curious twist of irony, the United States is Venezuela’s largest oil export market. In other words, the United States–by having Venezuela as its fourth largest oil supplier–has inadvertently financed Venezuela’s social programs, and in turn kept Cuba’s economy afloat. Given the vagaries of international oil markets, this is hardly a sustainable strategy. Nor did it square with Chávez's and the Castro brothers’ rhetoric of independence from foreign powers. These policies–the very foundation of Latin American socialism–have wrought far more harm than good. In the Harvard Business Review, David Conklin pops a hole in every inflated eulogy to Chávez with a reminder that his political agenda was neither new nor original. Its nationalistic sentiment was deeply rooted in Latin America’s past, especially in the economic doctrine of Dependency Theory. This theory “supported autarky or economic independence, placing restrictions on imports and foreign ownership,” writes Conklin. Based on the notion that resources flow from a "periphery" of poor and underdeveloped states to a "core" of wealthy states, dependency theorists argued that without the intervention and solidarity of Latin American governments, economics as usual would only enrich the West at the expense of poor countries. This belief led to protectionist policies that made domestic monopolies increasingly uncompetitive. Protectionism reduces the incentive to innovate, ultimately making states more dependent. Both Chávez and the Castro brothers subsidized food prices. Agriculture became less productive, and now both countries rely on food imports to feed their populations. This is particularly striking in Cuba. Though the island had a strong agricultural industry throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries, production has steadily declined since the Cuban Revolution. Even as its government attempts to inject new capital into this flailing industry through foreign investment and the legalization of private cooperatives, Cuba is still producing less food than it did in 2007 prior to reforms. Market reforms initiated by Raúl Castro in 2010–including limited forms of self-employment, enhanced access to credit, and legalizing the sale of private property–are a step in the right direction, but the pace is haltingly slow and lack transparency. The Cuban government has a history of only opening those industries that are the least politically threatening–such as the enclave of luxury tourism. Tourism is tightly managed by the government; it hand-picks military officers and Party loyalists to run hotels. It also has a history of reversing reforms when its economy improves. Venezuela’s reliance on oil exports results in a similar erosion of governance and transparency. Chávez’s antipoverty programs were notoriously corrupt. A recent poll suggested that more than two-thirds of Venezuelans do not believe they have benefited from the country’s oil income Chávez. Distrust of foreign investors and reflexive nationalism coupled with populist policies run deep in Latin America’s past. Because of this, Latin American socialism–for all the damage it has wrought–will not be suddenly undone by the death of Chávez or transition of power from Raúl Castro to Miguel Diaz-Canel, the recently-named “second-in-command” of the Cuban hierarchy. Latin American socialism is more than the persuasive rhetoric of personalistic dictators. It is a deeply-ingrained set of laws, institutions, and incentives that keep parties in power, line the pockets of state-owned industries, and invest little in the social welfare of people that pose any threat to the status quo.
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Fredman 13 [Rachel, Presidential Management Fellow at the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, and previously consulted for the World Bank and Millennium Challenge Corporation, May 30, 2013, “Latin American Socialism: Churning Along, Economic Failures Aside” diplomati courier http://www.diplomaticourier.com/news/regions/latin-america/1500-latin-american-socialism-churning-along-economic-failures-asid]
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On the surface, the continuation of Latin American socialism is in jeopardy. Yet one need look no further than its history of oil-financed social programs, bloated bureaucracies, rising corruption, and skyrocketing inflation to realize that Latin American socialism is deeply ingrained and churning along like on its rickety path, flaws and all. selective foreign investment and oil money that serves little social purpose aside from generating the funds needed to keep the current parties in power. These economic shocks have outweighed the benefits of Venezuelan social programs, which are completely financed by oil exports. Chávez’s government-mandated price controls also increased unemployment and resulted in minimal industrial diversification outside of the oil and manufacturing sectors. Depending on oil exports rather than developing other competitive industries is just one of Venezuela’s economic problems. It also is a key link between Venezuela and Cuba This is a crucial lifeline to the hard currency-starved Cuban government, as Venezuela essentially took the place of the Soviet Union as Cuba’s primary benefactor. In a curious twist of irony, the United States is Venezuela’s largest oil export market. In other words, the United States–by having Venezuela as its fourth largest oil supplier–has inadvertently financed Venezuela’s social programs, and in turn kept Cuba’s economy afloat. These policies–the very foundation of Latin American socialism–have wrought far more harm than good. In the Harvard Business Review, David Conklin pops a hole in every inflated eulogy to Chávez with a reminder that his political agenda was neither new nor original Distrust of foreign investors and reflexive nationalism coupled with populist policies run deep in Latin America’s past. Because of this, Latin American socialism–for all the damage it has wrought–will not be suddenly undone by the death of Chávez or transition of power from Raúl Castro to Miguel Diaz-Canel, the recently-named “second-in-command” of the Cuban hierarchy. Latin American socialism is more than the persuasive rhetoric of personalistic dictators. It is a deeply-ingrained set of laws, institutions, and incentives that keep parties in power, line the pockets of state-owned industries, and invest little in the social welfare of people that pose any threat to the status quo.
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Venezuela’s socialist reforms will continue despite failures and will continue to spread with help from US investors
| 6,512 | 117 | 2,363 | 976 | 17 | 354 | 0.017418 | 0.362705 |
Venezuela QPQ Negative Supplement - SDI 2013.html5
|
Michigan State (SDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,472 |
Cuban President Gen. Raul Castro celebrated Friday the 60th anniversary of the guerrilla attack on the Moncada barracks that marked the beginning of the Cuban revolution, but the event could just as well be remembered as marking six decades of Latin America's biggest political, economic and social fiasco.¶ Granted, many of us, especially those born outside the island, once saw the "Cuban revolution" with a dose of romantic admiration.¶ But even if you brush aside the fact that Cuba's revolutionaries toppled one dictatorship to install another, the cold statistics of the past six decades tell a story of thousands of senseless deaths, a massive emigration that split Cuban families, and an economic collapse with few parallels anywhere.¶ In 1958, the year before then-guerrilla leader Fidel Castro took power, Cuba had a per capita income of roughly $356 a year, one of the three or four highest in Latin America, according to Carmelo Mesa Lago of the University of Pittsburg, co-author of "Cuba under Raul Castro" and one of the most prominent experts on the Cuban economy.¶ By comparison, Costa Rica was poorer, and Asian countries such as South Korea were much poorer, with per capita incomes of less than $100 a year.¶ Consider how much things have changed since:¶ n According to the World Bank's databank, South Korea, which started welcoming massive foreign investments in the early 1960s, today has an annual per capita income of $22,600; Costa Rica of $9,400, and Cuba of $5,400. And according to Mesa Lago, Cuba's real per capita income is probably lower than that because the figures have been manipulated by the island's government.¶ n South Korea has 276 cars per 1,000 people, while Costa Rica has 135, and Cuba only 21, the World Bank statistics show.¶ n In South Korea, 37 percent of the population has access to broadband Internet, compared with 9 percent in Costa Rica and 4 percent in Cuba, they show.¶ While South Korea has become an industrial powerhouse -- its Samsung electronic goods and Hyundai cars are exported everywhere -- and Costa Rica has high-tech factories from companies such as Intel, Cuba is an industrial basket case.¶ The island has not even been able to continue producing sugar or cigars at its 1958 levels. According to Cuban government figures cited by Mesa Lago, Cuba's sugar production has fallen from 859 tons to 106 tons per 1,000 people over the past six decades, and Cuba's cigar production has fallen from 92,000 cigars per 1,000 people to 36,000 over the period.¶ Until recently, Cubans used to joke that the three biggest accomplishments of Cuba's revolution are health, education and the restoration of national dignity, while its three biggest shortcomings are breakfast, lunch and dinner.¶ But even Cuba's health and education standards have fallen in recent years, and its national dignity has been compromised by its almost total economic dependence -- first from the former Soviet Union, and lately by Venezuela.¶ Today, Cuba's life expectancy of 79 years is the same as that of Costa Rica, and below South Korea's 81 years. In education, Cuba deserves credit for virtually eliminating illiteracy sooner than most other Latin American nations, but its higher education is far from what it used to be. A newly released ranking of Latin American universities by QS, a well-known London-based university research firm, places the once prestigious University of Havana at the 81st place in the region. It ranks way behind universities of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela and Paraguay.¶ Asked whether Castro's latest pro-market reforms to revert Cuba's economic disaster will work, Mesa Lago told me in an interview that "these are the most important economic reforms that have been implemented in Cuba since the revolution. The problem is that excessive regulations, bureaucratic red tape and taxes are blocking their success."¶ My opinion: Cuba's apologists will probably argue that I'm influenced by the Miami exile "mafia" and will come up with Cuba's own figures purporting to show the island as a model country.¶ But when I heard the presidents of Uruguay, Bolivia, Nicaragua and other countries who were standing next to Gen. Castro on Friday's anniversary in Santiago de Cuba praising the "achievements of the revolution," the first question that came to my mind was:¶ If Cuba is such a success and Cubans are so happy, why hasn't the government allowed one single free election in six decades?¶ The answer is that Cuba's dictatorship knows very well that its revolution has been a fiasco, and that it would lose them.
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Oppenheimer, 2013 (Andres, Latin America correspondent , Castro's revolution has been a fiasco, Sun Herald, July 29, 2013 , http://www.sunherald.com/2013/07/29/4832435/andres-oppenheimer-castros-revolution.html)
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Friday the 60th anniversary that marked the beginning of the Cuban revolution, but the event could just as well be remembered as marking six decades of Latin America's biggest political, economic and social fiasco. In 1958 Cuba had a per capita income of roughly $356 a year Cuba's real per capita income is probably lower than that because the figures have been manipulated by the island's government. Cuba is an industrial basket case. Cuba's sugar production has fallen from 859 tons to 106 tons per 1,000 people Cuba's cigar production has fallen from 92,000 cigars per 1,000 people to 36,000 over the period. Asked whether Castro's latest pro-market reforms to revert Cuba's economic disaster will work, Mesa Lago told these are important economic reform The problem is that excessive regulations, bureaucratic red tape and taxes are blocking their success."
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Cuba’s economy is collapsing now --- production is declining in all key sectors
| 4,619 | 79 | 863 | 755 | 13 | 139 | 0.017219 | 0.184106 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Economy Advantage - Northwestern 2013 Chicago Scholars.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,473 |
The real dividing line in U.S. policy toward Cuba is how best to undermine the Castro regime and hasten the island’s day of liberation. For almost half a century, the U.S. government has tried to isolate Cuba economically in an effort to undermine the regime and deprive it of resources. Since 1960, Americans have been barred from trading with, investing in, or traveling to Cuba. The embargo had a national security rationale before 1991, when Castro served as the Soviet Union’s proxy in the Western Hemisphere. But all that changed with the fall of Soviet communism. Today, more than a decade after losing billions in annual economic aid from its former sponsor, Cuba is only a poor and dysfunctional nation of 11 million that poses no threat to American or regional security.¶ A 1998 report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency concluded that, “Cuba does not pose a significant military threat to the U.S. or to other countries in the region.” The report declared Cuba’s military forces “residual” and “defensive.” Some officials in the Bush administration have charged that Castro’s government may be supporting terrorists abroad, but the evidence is pretty shaky. And even if true, maintaining a comprehensive trade embargo would be a blunt and ineffective lever for change.¶ As a foreign policy tool, the embargo actually enhances Castro”s standing by giving him a handy excuse for the failures of his homegrown Caribbean socialism. He can rail for hours about the suffering the embargo inflicts on Cubans, even though the damage done by his domestic policies is far worse. If the embargo were lifted, the Cuban people would be a bit less deprived and Castro would have no one else to blame for the shortages and stagnation that will persist without real market reforms.¶ If the goal of U.S. policy toward Cuba is to help its people achieve freedom and a better life, the economic embargo has completely failed. Its economic effect is to make the people of Cuba worse off by depriving them of lower-cost food and other goods that could be bought from the United States. It means less independence for Cuban workers and entrepreneurs, who could be earning dollars from American tourists and fueling private-sector growth. Meanwhile, Castro and his ruling elite enjoy a comfortable, insulated lifestyle by extracting any meager surplus produced by their
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Griswold, 2005 (Daniel, director of the Cato Institute's Center for Trade Policy Studies, Four Decades of Failure: The U.S. Embargo against Cuba, Cato Institute, October 12, 2005, http://www.cato.org/publications/speeches/four-decades-failure-us-embargo-against-cuba)
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. For almost half a century, the U.S. government has tried to isolate Cuba economically in an effort to undermine the regime and deprive it of resources But all that changed with the fall of Soviet communism Cuba is only a poor and dysfunctional nation of 11 million that poses no threat to American or regional security. Cuba does not pose a significant military threat to the U.S. , the embargo enhances Castro”s standing giving him a handy excuse for the failures of his homegrown Caribbean socialism the suffering the embargo inflicts on Cubans, If the embargo were lifted, the Cuban people would be a bit less deprived Castro would have no one else to blame for the shortages and stagnation that will persist without real market reforms. the goal of U.S. policy toward Cuba is to help its people achieve freedom and a better life the embargo has completely failed Its economic effect is to make the people of Cuba worse off by depriving them of lower-cost food and other goods that could be bought from the U S Cuban workers could be earning dollars from American tourists and fueling private-sector growth.
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Lifting the embargo immediately enhances Cuba’s economy and motivates political reform
| 2,364 | 86 | 1,114 | 389 | 11 | 193 | 0.028278 | 0.496144 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Economy Advantage - Northwestern 2013 Chicago Scholars.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,474 |
Both the United States and Cuba would benefit if Washington would lift its longstanding trade embargo against the island, but President Barack Obama has toughened the sanctions since taking office in 2009, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez said on Thursday.¶ The embargo, fully in place since 1962, has done $108 billion in damage to the Cuba economy, but also has violated the constitutional rights of Americans and made a market of 11 million people off limits to U.S. companies, Rodriguez told reporters.¶ "The blockade is, without doubt, the principal cause of the economic problems of our country and the essential obstacle for [our] development," he said, using Cuba's term for the embargo. "The blockade provokes suffering, shortages, difficulties that reach each Cuban family, each Cuban child.".¶ Rodriguez spoke at a news conference that Cuba stages each year ahead of what has become an annual vote in the United Nations on a resolution condemning the embargo. The vote is expected to take place next month.¶ Last year, 186 countries voted for the resolution, while only the United States and Israel supported the embargo, Rodriguez said.¶ Lifting the embargo would improve the image of the United States around the world, he said, adding that it would also end what he called a "massive, flagrant and systematic violation of human rights."¶ That violation includes restrictions on U.S. travel to the island that require most Americans to get U.S. government permission to visit and a ban on most U.S. companies doing business in Cuba, he said.¶ "The prohibition of travel for Americans is an atrocity from the constitutional point of view," Rodriguez said.¶ Cuba has its own limits on travel that make it difficult for most of its citizens to leave the country for any destination.¶ Rodriguez said the elimination of the embargo would provide a much-needed tonic for the sluggish U.S. economy.¶ "In a moment of economic crisis, lifting the blockade would contribute to the United States a totally new market of 11 million people. It would generate employment and end the situation in which American companies cannot compete in Cuba," he said.¶ Obama, who said early in his presidency that he wanted to recast long-hostile U.S.-Cuba relations, has been a disappointment to the Cuban government, which expected him to do more to dismantle the embargo.¶ He has lifted some restrictions on travel and all on the sending of remittances to the island, but Rodriguez said he has broadened the embargo and its enforcement in other areas.¶ Fines against U.S. and foreign companies and individuals , he said.¶ U.S.-Cuba relations thawed briefly under Obama, but progress came to a halt when Cuba arrested U.S. contractor Alan Gross in Havana in December 2009.¶ Gross was subsequently sentenced to 15 years in prison for setting up Internet networks in Cuba under a controversial U.S. program that Cuba views as subversive.¶ Rodriguez dodged questions about how U.S. policy toward Cuba might change if Obama is re-elected in November or if Republican candidate Mitt Romney wins the presidency, but said whoever is in office will have a chance to make history.¶ "Any American president would have the opportunity to make a historic change," he said. "He would go into history as the man who rectified a policy that has failed."
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Reuters, 2012 (Thomas,multinational media and information firm,Cuba: Ending US Embargo Would Help Both Countries, Newsmax, Friday, 21 Sep 2012 , http://www.newsmax.com/globaltalk/cuba-us-embargo-end/2012/09/21/id/457042)
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The embargo has done $108 billion in damage to the Cuba economy also has violated the constitutional rights of Americans and made a market of 11 million people off limits to U.S. companies The blockade without doubt, the principal cause of the economic problems of our country elimination of the embargo would provide a much-needed tonic for the sluggish U.S. economy lifting the blockade would contribute States a totally new market of 11 million people generate employment and end the situation in which American companies cannot compete in Cuba Fines against U.S. and foreign companies
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Lifting the embargo benefits both the US and Cuban economies
| 3,332 | 61 | 588 | 543 | 10 | 95 | 0.018416 | 0.174954 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Economy Advantage - Northwestern 2013 Chicago Scholars.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,475 |
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s problems of a post Castro transformation only worsen. In addition to Cubans on the island, there will be those in exile who will return claiming authority. And there are remnants of the dissident community within Cuba who will attempt to exercise similar authority. A power vacuum or absence of order will create the conditions for instability and civil war. Whether Raul or another successor from within the current government can hold power is debatable. However, that individual will nonetheless extend the current policies for an indefinite period, which will only compound the Cuban situation. When Cuba finally collapses anarchy is a strong possibility if the U.S. maintains the “wait and see” approach. The U.S. then must deal with an unstable country 90 miles off its coast. In the midst of this chaos, thousands will flee the island. During the Mariel boatlift in 1980 125,000 fled the island.26 Many were criminals; this time the number could be several hundred thousand fleeing to the U.S., creating a refugee crisis.¶ Equally important, by adhering to a negative containment policy, the U.S. may be creating its next series of transnational criminal problems. Cuba is along the axis of the drug-trafficking flow into the U.S. from Columbia. The Castro government as a matter of policy does not support the drug trade. In fact, Cuba’s actions have shown that its stance on drugs is more than hollow rhetoric as indicated by its increasing seizure of drugs – 7.5 tons in 1995, 8.8 tons in 1999, and 13 tons in 2000.27 While there may be individuals within the government and outside who engage in drug trafficking and a percentage of drugs entering the U.S. may pass through Cuba, the Cuban government is not the path of least resistance for the flow of drugs. If there were no Cuban restraints, the flow of drugs to the U.S. could be greatly facilitated by a Cuba base of operation and accelerate considerably.¶ In the midst of an unstable Cuba, the opportunity for radical fundamentalist groups to operate in the region increases. If these groups can export terrorist activity from Cuba to the U.S. or throughout the hemisphere then the war against this extremism gets more complicated. Such activity could increase direct attacks and disrupt the economies, threatening the stability of the fragile democracies that are budding throughout the region. In light of a failed state in the region, the U.S. may be forced to deploy military forces to Cuba, creating the conditions for another insurgency. The ramifications of this action could very well fuel greater anti-American sentiment throughout the Americas. A proactive policy now can mitigate these potential future problems.¶ U.S. domestic political support is also turning against the current negative policy. The Cuban American population in the U.S. totals 1,241,685 or 3.5% of the population.28 Most of these exiles reside in Florida; their influence has been a factor in determining the margin of victory in the past two presidential elections. But this election strategy may be flawed, because recent polls of Cuban Americans reflect a decline for President Bush based on his policy crackdown. There is a clear softening in the Cuban-American community with regard to sanctions. Younger Cuban Americans do not necessarily subscribe to the hard-line approach. These changes signal an opportunity for a new approach to U.S.-Cuban relations. (Table 1)¶ The time has come to look realistically at the Cuban issue. Castro will rule until he dies. The only issue is what happens then? The U.S. can little afford to be distracted by a failed state 90 miles off its coast. The administration, given the present state of world affairs, does not have the luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional American model of crisis management. The President and other government and military leaders have warned that the GWOT will be long and protracted. These warnings were sounded when the administration did not anticipate operations in Iraq consuming so many military, diplomatic and economic resources. There is justifiable concern that Africa and the Caucasus region are potential hot spots for terrorist activity, so these areas should be secure. North Korea will continue to be an unpredictable crisis in waiting. We also cannot ignore China. What if China resorts to aggression to resolve the Taiwan situation? Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan? Additionally, Iran could conceivably be the next target for U.S. pre-emptive action. These are known and potential situations that could easily require all or many of the elements of national power to resolve. In view of such global issues, can the U.S. afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban situation play out? The U.S. is at a crossroads: should the policies of the past 40 years remain in effect with vigor? Or should the U.S. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
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Gorrell 5 (Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
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Regardless of the succession Cuba’s problems of a post Castro transformation only worsen. In addition to Cubans there will be those in exile who will return claiming authority. And there are remnants of the dissident community who will attempt to exercise similar authority. A power vacuum or absence of order will create the conditions for instability and civil war. Whether Raul or another successor can hold power is debatable. that individual will extend the current policies which will only compound the situation. When Cuba finally collapses anarchy is a strong possibility The U.S. then must deal with an unstable country 90 miles off its coast. thousands will flee the island. this time the number could be several hundred thousand flee to the U.S., creating a refugee crisis. the U.S. may be creating its next series of transnational criminal problems. Cuba’s actions have shown that its stance on drugs is more than hollow rhetoric as indicated by its increasing seizure of drugs the Cuban government is not the path of least resistance for the flow of drugs. If there were no Cuban restraints, the flow of drugs to the U.S. could be greatly facilitated by a Cuba base of operation and accelerate considerably. In the midst of an unstable Cuba, the opportunity for radical fundamentalist groups to operate in the region increases. If these groups can export terrorist activity from Cuba to the U.S. or throughout the hemisphere then the war against this extremism gets more complicated. Such activity could increase direct attacks and disrupt the economies, threatening the stability of the fragile democracies that are budding throughout the region. In light of a failed state in the region, the U.S. may be forced to deploy military forces to Cuba, creating the conditions for another insurgency. fuel greater anti-American sentiment throughout the Americas. The U.S. can little afford to be distracted by a failed state 90 miles off its coast. The administration does not have the luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional American model of crisis management. the GWOT will be long and protracted. Africa and the Caucasus region are potential hot spots for terrorist activity North Korea will continue to be an unpredictable crisis in waiting. We also cannot ignore China. What if China resorts to aggression to resolve the Taiwan situation? Iran could conceivably be the next target for U.S. pre-emptive action. These are known and potential situations that could easily require all or many of the elements of national power to resolve. I can the U.S. afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban situation play out?
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Cuban instability causes Caribbean instability, democratic backsliding, and refugee flows
| 5,038 | 89 | 2,654 | 823 | 10 | 434 | 0.012151 | 0.527339 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Economy Advantage - Northwestern 2013 Chicago Scholars.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,476 |
It is not just Venezuelans who are looking anxiously at their post-Hugo Chavez future.¶ Cubans, too, have much to lose if Venezuela's government changes after the April 14 election, and they're not happy about it.¶ In campaign speeches, Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles is threatening to axe the long-time lifeline Venezuela has been providing to Cuba in the form of heavily discounted oil.¶ For 13 years, the small Caribbean state has depended on Venezuela for nearly 100,000 barrels a day of petroleum — to light Cuba's homes and the hotels that underpin its tourist economy — at discount prices that amount to an estimated $6-billion subsidy over the six-year life of the current agreement.¶ "The giveaways to other countries are going to end," Capriles told a student rally in Zulia recently. "Not another drop of oil will go toward financing the government of the Castros."¶ The market-friendly Venezuelan governor is no fan of the radical socialism of the late president Hugo Chavez who viewed Cuba's Fidel Castro as a mentor. And his message is getting through to Cubans loud and clear.¶ "The opposition is talking about cutting off the oil and if they do we're in big trouble," says Tina (not her real name), a tour guide in the northern province of Mattanzas.¶ Trouble is not something Cuba needs any more of, particularly now.¶ "After the triumph of the revolution in 1959, Cuba became an upside-down pyramid. Labourers at the top. Professionals at the bottom," says Tina, her own life being a case in point.¶ Tina is a multilingual, university-trained interpreter/translator in her late 20s who found no work after graduating. So she became a teacher, and found there was no money in that.¶ Her teacher's salary equaled $25 Cdn a month. Almost enough to buy four kilograms of pork to feed her extended family, providing she bought nothing else that month.¶ But she's a smart woman. She speaks Spanish, English, German and realpolitik. So, like Cuba after the collapse of its Soviet sponsor in the early-1990s, she stopped what she was doing and turned to tourism.¶ Cuba's been turning out joint-venture resorts as fast as it can drain the swamps of Varadero, building a new economy on the hard currency of foreign visitors to the tune of almost $2.5 billion a year, according to reports.¶ Tourists are flocking to the pastel-colored, all-inclusive, air-conditioned bubbles of blue water and white rum that could be anywhere in the Caribbean since they portray so little of Cuba or Castro or the political tensions that litter the country's past and present.¶ For those willing to leave the bubble, Tina will guide them where they want to go for a daily fee that's small to them, but eight times what she used to make in a month.¶ Most of her customers are Canadians ("So nice!") and Russians ("Not so nice."), since the ongoing 53-year-old U.S. embargo pretty much keeps Americans out.¶ The departures and arrivals board at Varadero Airport reads like a survey of cold weather capitals, with flights from Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, Edmonton and Saint John coming and going all day long.¶ But while there are plenty of Canadians and Russians (even a few Chinese nationals) basking in sun and cheap rum, there are shortages of other things, despite the much trumpeted "triumph of the revolution."¶ Earlier this month it was butter. Before that, toothpaste. And before that, a shortage of shampoo.¶ The U.S. embargo against the Castro regime compels Cuba to pay for the things it wants in cash, and hard currency is hard to come by.¶ That is also where Venezuela helps out. Along with the subsidized oil, it also invests billions of its hard-earned petrodollars directly in Cuba's aging infrastructure.¶ Still, despite the help, Cuba can't afford everything, all the time. So it constantly runs out of all kinds of stuff.¶ "Cubans get by on tips," Tina tells me. A bartender in a tourist resort trousers more in a day than a teacher will in a month.¶ Times are tough, but not as tough as they once were in the mid-1990s when some 50,000 state-owned cows suddenly vanished into many thousands of pots when Cubans were going hungry.¶ There's emigration, of course.¶ Cuba has famously had two kinds. "Wet" and "dry." Wet means finding a boat, or lashing a few inner tubes together and trying your luck on the tides to Florida, 144 kilometres to the north.¶ Dry meant going to someplace like Venezuela, then travelling north over land through Mexico by rail to the U.S. A little more expensive, and fraught with risks of its own.¶ Passports have become easier to come by since January, when Cuba lifted the burdensome restrictions that were once designed to prevent people skipping out.¶ But like the easing of restrictions on buying and selling cars and houses over the past two years, it sounds better than it is.¶ As Tina says, you have to be able to afford these things, and not many can.¶ She likes to say that Cuba has no important natural resources, which is why it is so tourist-dependent. But she's wrong about that. Cuba has resources all right. Human resources. It exports people.¶ Tens of thousands of doctors, health professionals, teachers and sports coaches are dispatched on contracts all over the developing world, but particularly to Venezuela, where over 30,000 Cuban doctors and dentists are based, part of a doctors for (subsidized) oil program that the Castros set up with Chavez.¶ Human chattel, whose talents are part payment for the oil lifeline many are worried about losing.¶ Were the oil exchange to end, there'd be little waiting for these professionals back at home, beyond slinging mojitos to surly Russians.¶ But the first major poll of the Venezuelan campaign has the party of late president Chavez in the lead. Its victory would ensure the oil keeps flowing to Cuba, at least for the short term.
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MacInnes-Rae 2013 (Rick, World Affairs Correspondent, Rick MacInnes-Rae: Cuba's economy at mercy of Venezuela's voters, CBS News, Apr 1, 2013, http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/03/28/f-vp-macinnes-rae-cuba-venezuela.html)
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Cuba have much to lose if Venezuela's government changes after the April 14 election For years, the small Caribbean state has depended on Venezuela for nearly 100,000 barrels a day of petroleum — at discount prices that amount to an estimated $6-billion subsidy over the six-year life of the current agreement. Cuba became an upside-down pyramid. Labourers at the top. Professionals at the bottom, Tina is a multilingual, university-trained interpreter/translator in her late 20s who found no work after graduating. So she became a teacher, and found there was no money in that. Most customers are Canadians and Russians since the ongoing 53-year-old U.S. embargo pretty much keeps Americans out. while there are plenty of Canadians and Russians , there are shortages Earlier this month it was butter. Before that, toothpaste. And before that, a shortage of shampoo. The embargo compels Cuba to pay in cash, and hard currency is hard to come by. Cuba can't afford everything, all the time. So it constantly runs out of all kinds of stuff. Cuba has no important natural resources, which is why it is so tourist-dependent
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Shortages in the Cuban economy
| 5,853 | 31 | 1,120 | 986 | 5 | 184 | 0.005071 | 0.186613 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Economy Advantage - Northwestern 2013 Chicago Scholars.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,477 |
Cuba blames the U.S. embargo for nearly a trillion dollars in losses to the island's economy since it was imposed by President Kennedy in 1962.¶ Vice Foreign Minister Abelardo Moreno said that at current prices a conservative estimate of economic damages to the island up until December 2010 would be more than $104 billion. However, he added, if you take into consideration the extreme devaluation of the dollar against the price of gold on the international financial market during 2010, they would add up to nearly a trillion dollars.
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Siegelbaum 2011 (Portia Siegelbaum staff writer for CBS News September 14, 2011 Cuba: U.S embargo causes $1 trillion in losses http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20106159-503543.html)¶
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Cuba blames the embargo for nearly a trillion dollars in losses to economy since imposed in 1962 Vice Foreign Minister Moreno said at current prices a estimate of economic damages up until December 2010 would be more than $104 billion if you take into consideration the extreme devaluation of the dollar against the price of gold on the international financial market during 2010, they would add up to nearly a trillion dollars
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The embargo costs Cuba’s economy trillions
| 537 | 42 | 427 | 89 | 6 | 72 | 0.067416 | 0.808989 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Economy Advantage - Northwestern 2013 Chicago Scholars.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,478 |
Cuban families are not the only victims of the embargo. Many of the dollars Cubans could earn from U.S. tourists would come back to the United States to buy American products, especially farm goods.¶ In 2000, Congress approved a modest opening of the embargo. The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000 allows cash-only sales to Cuba of U.S. farm products and medical supplies. The results of this opening have been quite amazing. Since 2000, total sales of farm products to Cuba have increased from virtually zero to $380 million last year. From dead last in U.S. farm export markets, Cuba ranked 25th last year out of 228 countries in total purchases of U.S. farm products. Cuba is now the fifth largest export market in Latin America for U.S. farm exports. American farmers sold more to Cuba last year than to Brazil. Our leading exports to Cuba are meat and poultry, rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans.¶ The American Farm Bureau estimates that Cuba could eventually become a $1 billion agricultural export market for products of U.S. farmers and ranchers. The embargo stifles another $250 million in potential annual exports of fertilizer, herbicides, pesticides and tractors. According to a study by the U.S. International Trade Commission, the embargo costs American firms a total of $700 million to $1.2 billion per year. Farmers in Texas and neighboring states are among the biggest potential winners. One study by Texas A&M University estimated that Texas ranks fifth among states in potential farm exports to Cuba, with rice, poultry, beef and fertilizer the top exports.
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Griswold, 2005 (Daniel, director of the Cato Institute's Center for Trade Policy Studies, Four Decades of Failure: The U.S. Embargo against Cuba, Cato Institute, October 12, 2005, http://www.cato.org/publications/speeches/four-decades-failure-us-embargo-against-cuba)
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Cuba not the only victim of the embargo Many dollars would come back to the United States to buy American products especially farm goods. In 2000, Congress approved a modest opening of the embargo. cash-only sales to Cuba of U.S. farm products and medical supplies 2000, sales of farm products increased from virtually zero to $380 million Cuba is now the fifth largest export market in Latin America for U.S. farm exports. The embargo stifles another $250 million , the embargo costs American firms a total of $700 million to $1.2 billion per year.
|
U.S. would benefit as well
| 1,597 | 26 | 549 | 262 | 5 | 94 | 0.019084 | 0.358779 |
Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Economy Advantage - Northwestern 2013 Chicago Scholars.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
5,479 |
(Reuters) - Venezuela's recent designation of an acting head of its diplomatic mission in the United States shows the OPEC nation's desire to restore full diplomatic relations, the foreign minister said in an interview broadcast on Sunday.
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Reuters, 13 (“Venezuela says taking steps to restore U.S. diplomatic ties”, Sun May 19, 2013 11:00pm EDT, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/20/us-venezuela-usa-idUSBRE94J01R20130520, jld)
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Venezuela's recent designation of an acting head of its diplomatic mission in the United States shows desire to restore full diplomatic relations
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Diplomatic outreach now- because of high trade relations
| 239 | 56 | 145 | 37 | 8 | 22 | 0.216216 | 0.594595 |
Venezuela Neg Updates - Wave 3 - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,480 |
Nathaniel T. Edwards is a fourth-year at the University of Georgia. He is double-majoring in International Affairs and Political Science with a focus on East Asian affairs, as well as pursuing a minor in Japanese. He has studied in both Japan and China, and Pacific regions. Outside of MUN, Nate is active in the UGA Chapter of the Roosevelt Institution and the Center for International Trade and Security as a student research intern. After completing his bachelor's degree, He plans to pursue a Master's degree in nonproliferation and counterterrorism studies. Nate also enjoys climbing and bouldering, hiking, and has studied Okinawan Kenpo where he has achieved black-belt status
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University of Georgia Model UN Team, no date (“Meet the Team”, accessible on google, http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDQQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.uga.edu%2Fmodelun%2FContact_Us_files%2FMeet%2520the%2520Team.doc&ei=8UH9UYnxD4HTrgHZ6YHQCA&usg=AFQjCNFC88lvgdnBIF8JzAkO1aMlw7CR2A&sig2=fTOu-JfZ4RR6b4eU5Bn_0Q&bvm=bv.50165853,d.aWM, jld)
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Edwards is a fourth-year at the University of Georgia . After completing his bachelor's degree, He plans to pursue a Master's degree Nate also enjoys climbing and bouldering, hiking, and has studied Okinawan Kenpo where he has achieved black-belt status
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The only author who talks about the plan is literally the biggest goof ever
| 683 | 75 | 253 | 108 | 14 | 40 | 0.12963 | 0.37037 |
Venezuela Neg Updates - Wave 3 - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5
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Michigan (7-week)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,481 |
AID is playing a key role in the Reagan administration's efforts to revive Latin America. U.S. aid has poured into El Salvador, Honduras, and other countries in a desperate attempt to buy prosperity for strategic U.S. allies. This great flow of assistance provides a good test of the benevolence of foreign aid.¶ El Salvador is AID's showcase in the Western Hemisphere, and the biggest game in El Salvador is land reform. In early 1980 the government seized the property of hundreds of the largest farmers, began setting up cooperatives, and promised to eventually turn the land over to small farmers. From the beginning, AID has been fully supportive of Salvadoran land reform, pouring more than $250 million into the cause. In a 1983 Washington Post article on land reform, AID administrator Peter McPherson claimed that "real progress is being made," that 500,000 campesinos (small farmers) already benefit, that previously poor peasants "now own their land," and that "agricultural production in the reform sector compares well with pre-reform production."[23]¶ McPherson's claims are based on wishful thinking. Since the Salvadoran government expropriated large private farms in 1980, production of coffee, the largest export, has plummeted 30 percent. Sugar and cotton production have also declined.[24] The government has provided no real compensation to the expropriated landowners--they were given only worthless government land bonds, which cannot be redeemed now and whose value is rapidly depreciating as a result of inflation. The small tenant farmers who now plow much of the land are required by the government to wait 30 years before selling any of it, which essentially ties them to the land as though they were medieval serfs. Hence, they lack any real title to their land, contrary to McPherson's claim. The government forces farmers to sell their crops to the state for prices far below the crops' true worth, and often it does not pay farmers for as long as two years after they turn in their harvest.¶ The government of El Salvador has done an abysmal job of administering economic overhaul. The 1983 harvest was disrupted because the government's central bank failed to make sufficient credit available to farmers during planting season.[25] After expropriating large farms, the government set up hundreds of cooperatives to manage those farms. But neither the government nor AID knew exactly how many cooperatives existed; 317 was the best available estimate. As of September 1983, three and a half years after the property had been expropriated and the cooperatives created, the Salvadoran government still had not surveyed the expropriated properties, established the amount and class of lands involved, determined the number of properties expropriated, or established the amounts owed to the previous owners.¶ The new cooperatives are very poorly managed. The typical cooperative uses twice as many workers as the previous farmland owners did to work the same land. As a result, many cooperative members work only two or three days a week. Much of the land in El Salvador is mountainous and unfit for farming, but the new cooperatives are futilely trying to squeeze harvests out of the worst-quality land--land on which the previous private owners never considered wasting seed and fertilizer. The AID inspector general estimated that three-quarters of the new cooperatives are located on predominantly poor farmland.[26]¶ AID personnel have apparently made only a minimal effort to investigate how the cooperatives are actually working. The inspector general found that AID officials had visited only 1 of 41 cooperatives randomly selected for audit. Even though land reform is AID's principal project in El Salvador, AID's post for director of agrarian reform was vacant for 18 months.[27]¶ Throughout Central America, foreign aid has vastly expanded the size and power of central governments. As Manuel F. Ayau, president of the Universidad Francisco Marroquin in Guatemala City, observed, foreign aid¶ has been spent putting governments in the business of power generation and distribution, tele- communications, railroads, shipping or other ventures that invariably end up charging monopoly prices and losing money to boot. These ventures not only produce no wealth for their countries, but they also tax economically productive enterprises to cover their losses.[28]¶ In Honduras, AID is propping up the major cause of the people's misery--the government. A recent GAO report noted, 'The government's centralized procurement process averages over 100 steps requiring about six months to complete."[29] The economy is dominated by heavily subsidized, inefficient stateowned enterprises. Much U.S. aid is labeled "balance-of-payments support" and is intended to cover the country's trade deficit, which is caused by Honduras's overvalued exchange rate. As Ayau noted, overvalued currency means "the foreign exchange spenders--the exporters--subsidize the foreign exchange spenders--the importers--thus promptly exhausting foreign exchange reserves. Typically, more debt is then acquired to postpone the eventual day of reckoning."[30]¶ Honduras's overvalued exchange rate is encouraging capital flight because Hondurans recognize that the official exchange rate amounts to a de facto expropriation of their foreign-exchange earnings. The Honduran government refuses to adjust the rate because 'exchange rate policy actions might imply government mismanagement of the economy," according to GAO.[31] Instead of encouraging the government to reform its exchange rate and stop hindering its own export trade, AID is paying to set up a price-checking unit in the government's central bank to better regulate Hondurans involved in import or export transactions. With AID's support, the Honduran government is repressing the symptoms while continuing to cause the disease.
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James Bovard 1/31/86, free-lance writer who has written on foreign aid for the Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, and other publications, “The Continuing Failure of Foreign Aid”
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U.S. aid has poured into El Salvador, Honduras, and other countries the government seized the property of hundreds of the largest farmers, began setting up cooperatives, and promised to eventually turn the land over to small farmers. Since the Salvadoran government expropriated large private farms in 1980, production of coffee, the largest export, has plummeted 30 percent. Sugar and cotton production have also declined.[24] The government has provided no real compensation to the expropriated landowners--they were given only worthless government land bonds, which cannot be redeemed now and whose value is rapidly depreciating as a result of inflation. The small tenant farmers who now plow much of the land are required by the government to wait 30 years before selling any of it, which essentially ties them to the land as though they were medieval serfs. they lack any real title to their land The government forces farmers to sell their crops to the state for prices far below the crops' true worth, and often it does not pay farmers for as long as two years after they turn in their harvest The 1983 harvest was disrupted because the government's central bank failed to make sufficient credit available to farmers during planting season But neither the government nor AID knew exactly how many cooperatives existed AID made a minimal effort to investigate how the cooperatives are actually working The economy is dominated by heavily subsidized, inefficient stateowned enterprises. Much U.S. aid is labeled "balance-of-payments support overvalued currency means "the foreign exchange spenders--the exporters--subsidize the foreign exchange spenders--the importers--thus promptly exhausting foreign exchange reserves more debt is then acquired to postpone the eventual day of reckoning
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US AID in Latin America has empirically failed—lack of dedication, mismanagement—also harms farmers—turns the case
| 5,897 | 114 | 1,794 | 892 | 15 | 275 | 0.016816 | 0.308296 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,482 |
The foreign aid industry has for decades tried one approach after another in an effort to make aid work. A career of field experience in the aid industry, however, confirms the empirical record that aid is unimportant to growth or poverty reduction and suggests that aid is not likely to work in the future. The belief that foreign assistance has been generally ineffective, moreover, appears to be widespread among aid practitioners with long field experience. The current effort by the United Nations to double worldwide aid flows is part of a pattern to reinvent foreign aid. Since the 1950s, the industry has alternately focused on promoting industrialization, agriculture, poverty reduction, health, institutions, and so on. The UN has sponsored numerous grandiose resolutions that have also failed to spur development. We have come to the point where new ideas on making aid work are recycled old ideas. In practice, the aid industry has not changed much. The ineffectiveness of aid has little to do with a lack of resources. Its roots lie instead in the complex nature of poverty and the flawed nature of institutions and governments in poor countries. The aid industry’s bureaucratic continuing growth also undermines effectiveness and accountability. Rich nations should reject calls for increasing aid and should probably reduce such funding.
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Dichter, ’05 [9/12/05, Thomas Dichter is the author of Despite Good Intentions: Why Development Assistance to the Third World Has Failed (Amherst and Boston: University of Massachusetts Press, 2003). He has worked in international development since 1964 in a variety of institutions including the World Bank, the United Nations Development Programme, the Peace Corps, and numerous nongovernmental organizations, “Time to Stop Fooling Ourselves about Foreign Aid A Practitioner’s View”, http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/fpb86.pdf]
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foreign aid industry has for decades tried one approach after another in an effort to make aid . A career of field experience in the aid industry, however, confirms the empirical record that aid is unimportant to growth or poverty reductio aid is not likely to work in the future foreign assistance has been generally ineffective, . The ineffectiveness of aid has little to do with a lack of resources. Its roots lie instead in the complex nature of poverty and the flawed nature of institutions and governments in poor countries The aid industry’s bureaucratic continuing growth also undermines effectiveness and accountabili Rich nations should reject calls for increasing aid and should probably reduce such funding.
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Aid will not and cannot work- empirics
| 1,352 | 39 | 719 | 214 | 7 | 116 | 0.03271 | 0.542056 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,483 |
Ineffectiveness of aid does not mean that all development aid operations must fail. Some aid operations were and are successful or partly successful. This means that they have achieved their objectives and improved the situation. However, this does not prove the case for foreign development aid, because successful operations are not numerous. Under central planning some successful firms also existed due to different factors – like protection by the state, insufficient competition, limited supply of the good produced, etc. But they were just a small fraction of the economy and unable to reverse the fate of the whole order.
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Prokopijević, ’07 [2007,Miroslav Prokopijević is a Professor at Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) - Institute for European Studies, “Why Foreign Aid Fails”, http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/1452-595X/2007/1452-595X0701029P.pdf]
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Ineffectiveness of aid does not mean that all development aid operations must fail However, this does not prove the case for foreign development aid, because successful operations are not numerous. . But they were just a small fraction of the economy and unable to reverse the fate of the whole order.
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Empricis are on our side- just because aid has worked a couple times out of a hundred doesn’t mean It is an advisable strategy
| 629 | 126 | 301 | 99 | 24 | 51 | 0.242424 | 0.515152 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,484 |
If foreign aid is highly ineffective, can its failure be recovered in order to get better results? Some modest improvement is possible. If reasonable politicians rather than senseless technocrats would be in charge of aid programs; if sensitive and educated aid workers would be recruited rather than ruthless, undereducated and biased individuals; if moral hazard, corruption and adverse selection would be reduced by closer monitoring; if more realistic reports would be produced through further investigations of this process; and if the evaluation agency would be co-responsible for the fate of the program- then foreign aid may be improved to some moderate degree. However, it can neither be effective nor comparable to private investment. The same may be said about central planning. Its failure may be moderated and postponed by implementing suggestions similar to those mentioned above. But that is utopian since it would require the change of human nature. In the present world, the largest hurdle to improve foreign aid or central planning is represented in the structure of incentives.33 It is settled in such a way that aid cannot be reshaped to look similar to the operation of a profit firm, i.e. it prevents the introduction of more effective means for functioning, monitoring and evaluation. Due to its structure of incentives, foreign aid is ineffective because of its nature rather than because of some particular other mechanism. While being similar to central planning, foreign aid is irrecoverable. Central planning was always on the move, but never truly reformed. After its collapse in the Central and East Europe and elsewhere in the late 1980s, the system was abandoned and replaced with some type of market order.
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Prokopijević, ’07 [2007,Miroslav Prokopijević is a Professor at Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) - Institute for European Studies, “Why Foreign Aid Fails”, http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/1452-595X/2007/1452-595X0701029P.pdf]
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If foreign aid is highly ineffective, can its failure be recovered in order to get better results? improvement is possible. If reasonable politicians rather than senseless technocrats would be in charge of aid programs; if sensitive and educated aid workers would be recruited rather than ruthless moral hazard, corruption and adverse selection would be reduced by closer monitoring; if more realistic reports would be produced through further investigations of this process; and if the evaluation agency would be co-responsible for the fate of the program- then foreign aid may be improved to some moderate degree it can neither be effective nor comparable to private investment the largest hurdle to improve foreign aid or central planning is represented in the structure of incentives it prevents the introduction of more effective means for functioning, monitoring and evaluatio foreign aid is ineffective because of its nature rather than because of some particular other mechanism
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Aid is inherently ineffective- impossible to be reformed
| 1,739 | 56 | 986 | 276 | 8 | 151 | 0.028986 | 0.547101 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,485 |
In this paper, we have analyzed a simple reform that may improve the outcome from the donor’s perspective. Instead of committing a fixed amount of aid to each recipient ex ante, and making aid conditional on reform or outcome, the donor would commit the aggregate amount to be given to a group of countries, but where the actual amount disbursed to each individual country would depend on relative performance. Explicitly linking the allocation and disbursement decisions has two important advantages as compared to the present practices. First, by creating a conflict of interest between the beneficiaries of foreign assistance, the opportunity cost of aid is internalized, thereby giving the donor (or country department) stronger incentives ex post to reward good policies. Second, competition among recipients allows the donor to make inferences about common shocks, which otherwise conceal the recipients’ choice of action. This enables the donor to give aid more efficiently. A recent World Bank report (Collier and Dollar, 1998) estimates that if aid is redirected towards poor countries with good policies, more than 80 million people could be lifted out of poverty for the same aggregate level of foreign aid. Consequently, there are potentially large gains of reforming current aid practices, and this paper has studied one such reform.
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Svennson, ’02 [2/1/02, Jakob Svensson is a Professor of Economics Institute for International Economic Studies and Stockholm University, “Why conditional aid does not work and what can be done about it?”, http://people.su.se/~jsven/JDE2003(70).pdf]
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Instead of committing a fixed amount of aid to each recipient ex ante, and making aid conditional on reform or outcome where the actual amount disbursed to each individual country would depend on relative performance. Explicitly linking the allocation and disbursement decisions has two important advantages as compared to the present practices. First the opportunity cost of aid is internalized, This enables the donor to give aid more efficiently if aid is redirected towards poor countries with good policies, more than 80 million people could be lifted out of poverty for the same aggregate level of foreign potentially large gains of reforming current aid practices
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Foreign aid fails in the squo and needs to be reformed- solves poverty
| 1,346 | 70 | 670 | 210 | 13 | 105 | 0.061905 | 0.5 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,486 |
Summary: The main point of this paper is that foreign aid fails because the structure of its incentives resembles that of central planning. Aid is not only ineffective, it is arguably counterproductive. Contrary to business firms that are paid by those they are supposed to serve (customers), aid agencies are paid by tax payers of developed countries and not by those they serve. This inverse structure of incentives breaks the stream of pressure that exists on the commercial market. It also creates larger loopholes in the principle-agent relationship on each point along the chain of aid delivery. Both factors enhance corruption, moral hazard and negative selection. Instead of promoting development, aid extends the life of bad institutions and those in power. Proposals to reform foreign aid – like aid privatization and aid conditionality – do not change the existing structure of the incentives in aid delivery, and their implementation may just slightly improve aid efficacy. Larger improvement is not possible. For that reason, foreign aid will continue to be a waste of resources, probably serving some objectives different to those that are usually mentioned, like recipient’s development, poverty reduction and pain relief.
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Prokopijević, ’07 [2007,Miroslav Prokopijević is a Professor at Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) - Institute for European Studies, “Why Foreign Aid Fails”, http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/1452-595X/2007/1452-595X0701029P.pdf]
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foreign aid fails because the structure of its incentives resembles that of central planning. Aid is not only ineffective, it is arguably counterproductive aid agencies are paid by tax payers of developed countries and not by those they serve. This inverse structure of incentives breaks the stream of pressure that exists on the commercial market. creates larger loopholes in the principle-agent relationship Both factors enhance corruption, moral hazard and negative selection stead of promoting development, aid extends the life of bad institutions and those in power Proposals to reform foreign aid – like aid privatization and aid conditionality – do not change the existing structure of the incentives in aid delivery implementation may just slightly improve aid efficacy. Larger improvement is not possible foreign aid will continue to be a waste of resources
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Aid fails- enhances corruption and emboldens regimes
| 1,237 | 52 | 866 | 192 | 7 | 133 | 0.036458 | 0.692708 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,487 |
Facts are the driving force in this change of attitude. William Easterly6 led a larger research using the data for 88 countries supported by the World Bank and found that in just six cases, aid had some positive visible influence on growth. More specific in its conclusion was the single largest donor – the U.S. – when it concluded the following, after reviewing its long history as a donor: “The U.S. has granted $ 144bn in inflation-adjusted dollars to 97 countries in the period 1980-2000. These 97 countries had a median inflation-adjusted per capita GDP of $1,076 in 1980 but only $ 994 in 2000, a decline in real terms”.7 Among these 97 countries “…37 averaged zero or negative growth in per capita GDP from 1980 to 2000. Another 27 averaged marginal growth rates between 0 and 1 percent over the span. And only 33 averaged growth in per capita GDP over 1 percent from 1980. to 2000, of which only three (St. Kitts-Nevis, South Korea, and China) averaged over 5 percent”.8 Djankov et al. go a step further and state that aid has a negative impact on recipients: “… foreign aid has a negative impact on the democratic stance of developing countries, and on economic growth by reducing investment and increasing government corruption”.9 All three researches are based on large samples and all state that there is no long-term positive influence of foreign aid on growth and the standard of living. Under the pressure of such results, the U.S. decided to reshuffle its aid programs in such a way that the aid inflows are related to reform efforts in the recipient country. This program is called Millennium Challenge Account (MCA). The UN commission, chaired by Jeffrey Sachs, has developed the MDG (Millennium Development Goals), a close relative to the MCA. I will comment the proposed changes at the end of this paper.
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Prokopijević, ’07 [2007,Miroslav Prokopijević is a Professor at Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) - Institute for European Studies, “Why Foreign Aid Fails”, http://www.doiserbia.nb.rs/img/doi/1452-595X/2007/1452-595X0701029P.pdf]
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Facts are the driving force in this change of attitude. William Easterly6 led a larger research using the data for 88 countries supported by the World Bank and found that in just six cases, aid had some positive visible influence on growth. More specific in its conclusion was the single largest donor – the U.S. – when it concluded the following, after reviewing its long history as a donor: “ Among these 97 countries “…37 averaged zero or negative growth in per capita GDP from 1980 to 2000. Another 27 averaged marginal growth rates between 0 and 1 percent over the span. And only 33 averaged growth in per capita GDP over 1 percent from 1980. to 2000, aid has a negative impact on recipients: “… foreign aid has a negative impact on the democratic stance of developing countries, and on economic growth by reducing investment and increasing government corruption” All three researches are based on large samples and all state that there is no long-term positive influence of foreign aid on growth and the standard of livin
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Aid fails – leads to negatives growth, collapsing democracies and increasing corruption
| 1,825 | 87 | 1,027 | 313 | 12 | 178 | 0.038339 | 0.56869 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,488 |
By supporting the bureaucratic status quo in Latin America, Mr. Geithner strengthens himself politically. All hail the Obama administration's first-string hurler, a man who never meets a problem that can't be solved by throwing more money around. But back in the real world, the expansion of the already menacing IDB is grim news for the serfs who toil in the feudal Latin American systems that the bank calls its "clients." Drawing on the wisdom of Orwell, this is a good time to repeat what is already manifest: Latin America remains poor and backward not despite multilateral "assistance" but, in a large part, because of it. The IDB has been going at the problem of poverty in Latin America since 1959, but it hasn't acted alone. In the postwar period the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and untold bilateral agencies have blanketed the region with aid. World-wide foreign aid has boomed. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, "in 2008, total net official development assistance (ODA) from members of the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (DAC) rose by 10.2% in real terms to USD 119.8 billion. This is the highest dollar figure ever recorded." Does it follow that poverty persists because the amounts have been just too measly to do the job? It does for Mr. Geithner and the foreign-aid brigades. But rather than rely on those with vested interests, it's more useful to look at the empirical evidence. A 2006 paper titled "Foreign Aid, Income Inequality and Poverty," from the research department of the IDB itself, looked at the period 1971-2002 and found "some weak evidence that foreign aid is conducive to the improvement of the distribution of income [sic]. When the quality of institutions is taken into account, however, this result is not robust. This finding is consistent with recent empirical research on aid ineffectiveness in achieving economic growth or promoting democratic institutions."
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O’Grady, ’09 [4/6/09, Mary Anastasia O'Grady is an editor of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and member of the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board since 2005. She writes predominantly on Latin America and is a co-editor of the Index of Economic Freedom, “Aid Keeps Latin America Poor”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123897316163590919.html]
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By supporting the bureaucratic status quo in Latin Americ Obama administration's first-string hurler, a man who never meets a problem that can't be solved by throwing more money around the expansion of the already menacing IDB is grim news for the serfs who toil in the feudal Latin American systems , this is a good time to repeat what is already manifest: Latin America remains poor and backward not despite multilateral "assistance" but, in a large part, because of it. Does it follow that poverty persists because the amounts have been just too measly to do the job? It does for Mr. Geithner and the foreign-aid brigades it's more useful to look at the empirical evidence. weak evidence that foreign aid is conducive to the improvement of the distribution of income ]. When the quality of institutions is taken into account this result is not robust This finding is consistent with recent empirical research on aid ineffectiveness in achieving economic growth or promoting democratic institutions."
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Latin American aid causes more poverty
| 1,960 | 38 | 1,002 | 316 | 6 | 165 | 0.018987 | 0.522152 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,489 |
So now that we know it doesn't work, Mr. Geithner wants more of it. This is what the late, great development economist Peter Lord Bauer called "the disregard of reality." In a 1987 essay in the Cato Journal, he called the claim that poverty is a trap that cannot be escaped without external aid an "obvious conflict with simple reality." "All developed countries began as underdeveloped," Bauer wrote. "If the notion of the vicious circle were valid, mankind would still be in the Stone Age at best." Bauer spent a lifetime studying development. In 1972 he published "Dissent on Development" sharply criticizing aid for its focus on "symptoms and effects" of poverty while "divert[ing] attention from the determinants of development." For Bauer, foreign aid was not just a waste of money; it worked against getting things right in those areas that really matter to progress. Those "determinants" are now widely acknowledged, even by researchers at the World Bank. They produce an annual "Doing Business" survey that looks at the regulatory burden in 181 countries and points out the critical link between economically free people and prosperity. In a recent book titled "Lessons From the Poor" about successful entrepreneurs in the developing world, researcher Alvaro Vargas Llosa echoes these insights. "The decisive element" in bringing a society out of poverty is "the development of the entrepreneurial reserves that exist in its men and women," Mr. Vargas Llosa writes. "The institutions that grant more freedom to their citizens and more security to their citizens' possessions are those that best facilitate the accumulation of wealth." It is obvious that economic liberty and property rights are the key drivers of development, and that there is no correlation between the volume of foreign aid a country receives and its respect for these values. Yet what is more troubling is the IDB's reputation for working against liberalization in the region, most notoriously, against the flat tax. With its institutional checkbook it easily overpowers civic groups that try to limit the power of government. In doing so it promotes neither development nor just societies.
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O’Grady, ’09 [4/6/09, Mary Anastasia O'Grady is an editor of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and member of the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board since 2005. She writes predominantly on Latin America and is a co-editor of the Index of Economic Freedom, “Aid Keeps Latin America Poor”, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123897316163590919.html]
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we know it doesn't work Peter Lord Bauer the claim that poverty is a trap that cannot be escaped without external aid an "obvious conflict with simple reality." " sharply criticizing aid for its focus on "symptoms and effects" of poverty foreign aid was not just a waste of money; it worked against getting things right in those areas that really matter to progress The decisive element" in bringing a society out of poverty is "the development of the entrepreneurial reserves that exist in its men and women grant more freedom to their citizens and more security to their citizens' possessions are those that best facilitate the accumulation of wealth." economic liberty and property rights are the key drivers of development, and that there is no correlation between the volume of foreign aid a country receives and its respect for these values the IDB's reputation for working against liberalization in the region
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Aid Fails- economic freedom and internal development is best
| 2,170 | 60 | 916 | 347 | 9 | 152 | 0.025937 | 0.43804 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,490 |
Despite Clinton’s extravagant claims, there is little evidence that foreign assistance advances U.S. interests. The U.S. provided some $30 billion to Egypt over the last three decades, but the country remains poor and undemocratic. Indeed, aid to the corrupt Mubarak dictatorship helped turn Egypt into popular volcano. Pakistan has been on the U.S. dole and performing disastrously for decades. The waste, inefficiency and corruption surrounding humanitarian projects in Afghanistan and Iraq are legendary. What of the $27 billion in so-called development assistance requested for next year? These outlays have had no discernible impact on Third World economic growth. No doubt some projects in some countries have provided some benefits. But there is no correlation between aid and growth. Indeed, generous financial transfers to corrupt dictators often have impeded necessary reforms. Aid advocates now claim to do better. President George W. Bush created the Millennium Challenge Corporation to reward governments with good policies. Yet, reported the Washington Times last August, the agency “is giving billions of dollars to nations upbraided by the State Department for corruption in government.” The World Bank also has emphasized better governance. However, reported Tom Porteous, the London director of Human Rights Watch, “multibillion dollar programs funded by the World Bank and others have been politicized and manipulated by the Ethiopian government and are used as a powerful tool of political control and repression.” Aid incentives are all wrong.
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Bandow, ’11 [3/7/11, Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, “U.S. Foreign Aid Hinders More Than It Helps”, http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/us-foreign-aid-hinders-more-it-helps]
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there is little evidence that foreign assistance advances U.S. interests. The U.S. provided some $30 billion to Egypt over the last three decades, but the country remains poor and undemocratic. Pakistan has been on the U.S. dole and performing disastrously for decades. The waste, inefficiency and corruption surrounding humanitarian projects in Afghanistan and Iraq are legendar development assistance requested for next year? These outlays have had no discernible impact on Third World economic growth. But there is no correlation between aid and growth. Indeed, generous financial transfers to corrupt dictators often have impeded necessary reforms. multibillion dollar programs funded by the World Bank and others have been politicized and manipulated by the Ethiopian government and are used as a powerful tool of political control and repression.” Aid incentives are all wrong.
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Aid has no impact to economic growth and stops reforms
| 1,564 | 54 | 885 | 232 | 10 | 131 | 0.043103 | 0.564655 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Case Negatives
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2013
|
5,491 |
The international dole has created long-term dependency and discouraged reform. Even humanitarian aid has a disappointing record. Six months after the earthquake in Haiti, reported the Wall Street Journal, “the process of reconstruction appears to have come to a halt.” U.S. “Food for Peace” shipments, used to dump farmers’ domestic surpluses, are notorious for ruining local farmers and thus undermining local production. This problem continues in Haiti. On returning from a private aid mission, Don Slesnick, the mayor of Coral Gables, Florida, complained: “We were saddened to see rice bags travel no more than 20 (meters) from the gates of the distribution site before ending up in the back of a pickup truck presumably headed for the black market. To our further dismay, we returned home to read news stories that those very same donations were undercutting Haitian rice farmers who needed income to support their own families.” Worse is Somalia. Reported the New York Times last year: “As much as half the food aid sent to Somalia is diverted from needy people to a web of corrupt contractors, radical Islamist militants and local United Nations staff members.” Two decades ago Michael Maren worked with private aid organizations in Somalia and concluded: “Separately we’d arrived at the conclusion that the relief program was probably killing as many people as it was saving, and the net result was that Somali soldiers were supplementing their income by selling food, while the [insurgent force] — often indistinguishable from the army — was using the food as rations to fuel their attacks into Ethiopia.” Washington and other industrialized nations, like Japan, should reconsider the aid business. Financial transfers rarely are necessary for the West’s defense. The Cold War is over and America’s allies, including regional powers Israel and Turkey, should have graduated from U.S. assistance years ago. Most Third World nations are tangential at best to American or allied security. While it’s harder to criticize humanitarian aid, private money spent by private organizations is the best way to help those in need around the world. As for economic development, officials in wealthy industrialized nations should focus on improving their own economic policies and easing access of other nations to the international marketplace.
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Bandow, ’11 [3/7/11, Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, “U.S. Foreign Aid Hinders More Than It Helps”, http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/us-foreign-aid-hinders-more-it-helps]
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The international dole has created long-term dependency and discouraged reform This problem continues in Haiti. Worse is Somalia. the relief program was probably killing as many people as it was saving, and the net result was that Somali soldiers were supplementing their income by selling food Washington should reconsider the aid business. Financial transfers rarely are necessary for the West’s defense. Most Third World nations are tangential at best to American or allied security private money spent by private organizations is the best way to help those in need around the world. As for economic developmen ould focus on improving their own economic policies and easing access of other nations to the international marketplace.
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Aid creates dependencies and prevents reforms- private expansion is the only way to solve
| 2,340 | 89 | 734 | 368 | 14 | 114 | 0.038043 | 0.309783 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,492 |
WASHINGTON—Economic freedom has a greater impact than foreign aid in helping people in poor nations escape poverty, according to the Economic Freedom of the World: 2006 Annual Report, released today by the Cato Institute in conjunction with the Fraser Institute of Canada. In new research published in this year’s report, economist William Easterly of New York University compares the impact of economic freedom and foreign aid on economic growth in the poorest nations. Demonstrating that foreign aid has no positive impact on economic growth in the poorest nations, Easterly’s research shows that economic freedom has a positive impact on prosperity and helping lift nations out of poverty. Once greater economic freedom is taken into account, poor nations, far from being caught in a “poverty trap,” grow faster than rich nations. “What the research in this edition of Economic Freedom of the World suggests is that economic freedom, rather than foreign aid, does have a powerful positive impact and is a better approach,” says co-author of the report, James Gwartney, professor of economics at Florida State University. “Economic freedom is unambiguously good for the poor, not just in terms of incomes, but also in terms of the whole range of development indicators such as longevity, access to clean water, or the extent of child labor,” states Ian Vásquez, director of the Cato Institute’s Project on Global Economic Liberty.
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CATO, ’06 [9/7/06, The Cato Institute is a public policy research organization — a think tank – dedicated to the principles of individual liberty, limited government, free markets and peace. Its scholars and analysts conduct independent, nonpartisan research on a wide range of policy issues, “Foreign Aid Fails Poor Countries — Economic Freedom is Key”, http://www.cato.org/news-releases/2006/9/7/foreign-aid-fails-poor-countries-economic-freedom-key]
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Economic freedom has a greater impact than foreign aid in helping people in poor nations escape poverty according to the Economic Freedom of the World: 2006 economist William Easterly of New York University compares the impact of economic freedom and foreign aid on economic growth in the poorest nations foreign aid has no positive impact on economic growth in the poorest nations economic freedom has a positive impact on prosperity and helping lift nations out of poverty. Once greater economic freedom is taken into account, poor nations, far from being caught in a “poverty trap,” grow economic freedom, rather than foreign aid, does have a powerful positive impact and is a better approach Economic freedom is unambiguously good for the poor
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Economic Freedom is the only way to help the poor
| 1,432 | 49 | 747 | 227 | 10 | 121 | 0.044053 | 0.53304 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,493 |
The bottom line is that Bauer was correct about foreign aid. Foreign aid has failed to meet its principal objective: to spur economic growth. The reasons for its failure are probably multiple and more complex—and more numerous—than just a failed model of development. But the evidence has broadly corroborated Bauer’s view: an important instance of economic analysis making a correct prediction about reality in advance.
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Shleifer, ’10 [November 2010, Andrei Shleifer is a Russian American economist. He served as project director of the Harvard Institute for International Development's Russian aid project from its inauguration in 1992 until it was shut down in 1997, “Peter Bauer and the Failure of Foreign Aid”, http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2010/11/cj29n3-1.pdf]
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Foreign aid has failed to meet its principal objective: to spur economic growth The reasons for its failure are probably multiple and more complex than just a failed model of development But the evidence has broadly corroborated Bauer’s view: an important instance of economic analysis making a correct prediction about reality in advance.
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Foreign aid does not spur economic growth
| 420 | 41 | 339 | 65 | 7 | 53 | 0.107692 | 0.815385 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,494 |
It seems to me that there is an even better reason not to be despondent, namely that foreign aid is a sideshow. As I have already noted, recent decades have been a spectacular period for economic and social development in most of the world. The financial crisis has slowed things down, and has given a new voice to bad ideas, but it is unlikely to reverse the basic trends. The reason for the extraordinary economic and social progress is simple: the world has increasingly embraced capitalism. The name of the game has been better policy, not foreign aid. More secure property rights, freer trade, lower taxes, better—if still far from perfect—government accountability, and more prudent public finance have all contributed to economic growth.
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Shleifer, ’10 [November 2010, Andrei Shleifer is a Russian American economist. He served as project director of the Harvard Institute for International Development's Russian aid project from its inauguration in 1992 until it was shut down in 1997, “Peter Bauer and the Failure of Foreign Aid”, http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2010/11/cj29n3-1.pdf]
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that foreign aid is a sideshow The reason for the extraordinary economic and social progress is simple: the world has increasingly embraced capitalism. The name of the game has been better policy, not foreign aid. More secure property rights, freer trade, lower taxes, better—if still far from perfect—government accountability, and more prudent public finance have all contributed to economic growth.
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Foreign Aid theory is wrong - Capitalism and reforms is the reason for economic growth
| 744 | 86 | 401 | 123 | 15 | 60 | 0.121951 | 0.487805 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,495 |
For 40 years, U.S. foreign aid has been judged by its intentions, not its results. Foreign aid programs have been perpetuated and expanded not because they have succeeded, but because giving foreign aid still seems like a good idea. But foreign aid has rarely done anything that countries could not have done for themselves. And it has often encouraged the recipient governments' worst tendencies--helping to underwrite programs and policies that have starved thousands of people and derailed struggling economies.
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James Bovard 1/31/86, free-lance writer who has written on foreign aid for the Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, and other publications, “The Continuing Failure of Foreign Aid”
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For 40 years, U.S. foreign aid has been judged by not results. Foreign aid have not succeeded it has often encouraged the recipient governments' worst tendencies--helping to underwrite programs and policies that have starved thousands of people and derailed struggling economies.
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Turn—US foreign aid encourages worst tendencies and fails to solve—empirics
| 514 | 75 | 279 | 79 | 10 | 41 | 0.126582 | 0.518987 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,496 |
American foreign aid has often harmed the Third World poor. In Indonesia, the government confiscated subsistence farmers' meager plots for AID-financed irrigation canals. In Mali, farmers were forced to sell their crops at giveaway prices to a joint project of AID and the Mali government. In Egypt, Haiti, and elsewhere, farmers have seen the prices for their own crops nose-dive when U.S. free food has been given to their countries.¶ AID cannot be blamed for all the mistakes made in the projects it bankrolls. However, by providing a seemingly endless credit line to governments regardless of their policies, AID effectively discourages governments from learning from and correcting their mistakes. Giving some Third World governments perpetual assistance is about as humanitarian as giving an alcoholic the key to a brewery. Good intentions are no excuse for helping to underwrite an individual's--or a country's-- self-destruction.¶ Foreign aid programs appear to be incorrigible. For 35 years, American foreign aid policymakers seem to have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. U.S. foreign aid projects routinely repeat the same mistakes today that were committed decades ago. One telltale ironic report title from the General Accounting Office says it all: "Experience--A Potential Tool for Improving U.S. Assistance Abroad."[6]¶ This study focuses on the failure of U.S. humanitarian aid to achieve its goals. It begins with a close examination of one of the most popular foreign aid programs, Food for Peace. Then comes a review of AID's record in resurrecting the economies of Central America, followed by an analysis of AID's role in African agricultural development. AID's achievements in Egypt and Indonesia are then reviewed, followed by an analysis of AID's role in spurring the development of private business and capitalism in poor countries. The study concludes with an analysis of why U.S. foreign aid has failed in the past and why it will most likely fail in the future.
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James Bovard 1/31/86, free-lance writer who has written on foreign aid for the Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, and other publications, “The Continuing Failure of Foreign Aid”
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American foreign aid has often harmed the Third World the government confiscated farmers' meager plots for AID-financed irrigation canals farmers were forced to sell their crops at giveaway prices to a joint project of AID and the Mali government farmers have seen the prices for their own crops nose-dive when U.S. free food has been given to their countries by providing a seemingly endless credit line to governments regardless of their policies, AID effectively discourages governments from learning from and correcting their mistakes. no excuse for helping to underwrite a country's-- self-destruction For 35 years, American policymakers have learned nothing U.S. foreign aid projects routinely repeat the same mistakes today that were committed decades ago U.S. foreign aid has failed in the past and will most likely fail in the future
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American Foreign aid destroys the recipient country—moral hazard
| 1,995 | 64 | 842 | 312 | 8 | 131 | 0.025641 | 0.419872 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,497 |
Policy Option #8: End All Foreign Aid This option calls for eliminating all foreign aid from the international equation at the governmental level. It allows for private organizations to operate at the international level. The proponents suggest that foreign aid has created a mass group of welfare recipients throughout the world and that ending foreign aid is the only way to wean countries away from dependency. Others argue that foreign aid has stifled development and encouraged countries to go down unnatural paths. Many developing countries have lost the ability to feed themselves, for example, because of foreign aid. In addition, foreign aid has cost countries hundreds of billions of dollars and has little to show for it all. Eliminating foreign aid may also encourage greater economic growth and savings in the donor countries and this may lead to greater purchases in the previous recipients’ countries, if encouraged and coordinated at a private economic level. Foreign aid, many argue, is manipulation and imposition and, thus, ending it may remove many negative foreign influences and imperialism in the developing world. The U.S., moreover, would save large amounts of money and the public will be very happy. And, in the end, foreign countries will follow Lao Tzu’s saying that it is better to teach a person how to fish than to just give away a fish, since the former lesson can feed a person for a lifetime while the latter feeds that person for just a day and creates dependency and subservience. Ending all governmental foreign aid will return the U.S. to focusing on international security issues and leaving the socio-economic development issues to the native countries and their external non-governmental supporters. Countries have operated without foreign aid for hundreds and thousands of years. People can and will adapt to new conditions. The U.S. should accept that no country can fundamentally alter another country’s system for the long term. The U.S. can allow other countries to learn how to be self-sufficient or force them to adapt in ways in which current foreign aid system has prevented or discouraged from happening. New roads and realities to development can emerge beyond the current international welfare system.
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Dobransky, ’11 [March 2011, Steve Dobransky is an Adjunct Professor at Cleveland State University. He is completing his Ph.D. studies at Kent State University, majoring in International Relations and Justice Studies. He has an M.A. from Ohio University and a B.A. from Cleveland State University, “The Coming Crisis in US Foreign Aid: Policy Options for the 21st Century”, http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2011/0104/comm/dobransky_coming.html]
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End All Foreign Aid This option calls for eliminating all foreign aid from the international equation at the governmental level. It allows for private organizations to operate at the international level. foreign aid has created a mass group of welfare recipients throughout the world and that ending foreign aid is the only way to wean countries away from dependency foreign aid has stifled development and encouraged countries to go down unnatural paths Many developing countries have lost the ability to feed themselves, for example, because of foreign aid foreign aid has cost countries hundreds of billions of dollars and has little to show for it all. Eliminating foreign aid may also encourage greater economic growth and savings in the donor countries and this may lead to greater purchases in the previous recipients’ countrie . Foreign aid ending it may remove many negative foreign influences and imperialism in the developing world. . Ending all governmental foreign aid will return the U.S. to focusing on international security issues and leaving the socio-economic development issues to the native countries and their external non-governmental supporter The U.S. should accept that no country can fundamentally alter another country’s system for the long term. New roads and realities to development can emerge beyond the current international welfare system.
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Foreign Aid causes dependencies
| 2,255 | 31 | 1,373 | 361 | 4 | 212 | 0.01108 | 0.587258 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,498 |
It is great that Steve reminded us the world is a complex place. The people who really need to hear his message of complexity are the aid planners who think they can transform the complex societies they don’t understand from the outside through an injection of money into the complex politics they don’t understand. Someone who thinks outside aid can permanently raise a country’s entire growth rate, against all evidence, clearly does not get complexity. Someone who recommends that hundreds of aid officials, administrators, and foreign experts devise hundreds of integrated and coordinated programs (roads, immunization, teachers, wells, raising GDP [gross domestic product] growth, grain mills, “PRSPs” [Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers], clinics, microfinance, oral rehydration therapy, “development strategies,” Millennium Development Goals) clearly does not get complexity. Such a bureaucratic approach has never ended poverty and never will. How do rich societies solve these problems? Well-developed free markets and democracy, with property rights and individual freedoms, simplify the task for each actor. The firm supplies a specialized product, say grain mills (you can get a small hand-powered one online), to its consumers, and gets held accountable if grain mill consumers are unhappy—they stop buying the product, they return them to the store, the firm is threatened with its extinction if it doesn’t get its act together. The elected politician supplies roads, or teachers, or water supply to the voters, each done through a separate bureaucracy specializing in that task with nary a PRSP in sight, and if the voters are unhappy they vote the bums out of office. The bums try to prevent this debacle by making sure the specialized bureaucracies keep the voters happy with roads, water, and teachers (ever been to a PTA meeting when something has gone wrong in the school?). In short, rich societies work (not perfectly, but well enough to be rich) because of the decentralized way that complex problems are simplified— everyone has a specialized role and incentives and accountability to play that role reasonably well. What a contrast with the world of foreign aid! Each foreign aid bureaucracy is responsible for everything, all the aid bureaucracies together are collectively responsible for all this “everything,”and in this bureaucratic maze with no exits, nobody is individually responsible for anything. All an aid critic asks is that there be REAL accountability, not the meaningless kind that the eternally clueless aid agencies talk about when they collectively set big Goals with no consequences when the Goals are not met. All one can ask is that somebody in the aid system takes individual responsibility for seeing that oral rehydration salts reach dying babies, that twelve-cent doses of medicine reach dying malaria victims, that wells get drilled and maintained to give clean water so babies don’t get sick in the first place. With individual accountability, Searchers in foreign aid will find a way to make these things work. How can we think that aid accomplishing such modest tasks will bring an end to poverty? We can’t. Although aid performing these tasks well would do much good for the poor, it is a fallacy to think that overall poverty can be ended by a comprehensive package of “things,” like malaria medicines and clean water. The complex poverty of low-income societies will slowly give way to prosperity the same way it happened in rich countries, through the gradual homegrown rise of political and economic freedom. This is NOT an easy quick fix—“democracy” and “free markets” evolve from below with a lot of supporting social norms and institutions, they cannot be imposed from the top by the IMF [International Monetary Fund], World Bank, or U.S. Army. But there is good news—such evolution of freedom from below, and the concomitant decline of poverty, is already happening in many places. And until the benefits of freedom arrive for the poorest people in the world, let the aid agencies be held accountable for seeing that the $100 billion in annual foreign aid does finally reach the poor.
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Easterly, ’06 [12/1/06, William Russell Easterly is an American economist, specializing in economic growth and foreign aid. He is a Professor of Economics at New York University, joint with Africa House, and Co-Director of NYU’s Development Research Institute., “The Effectiveness of Foreign Aid”, http://www.cfr.org/foreign-aid/effectiveness-foreign-aid/p12077]
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the aid planners don’t understand from the outside through an injection of money into the complex politics they don’t understand Someone who thinks outside aid can permanently raise a country’s entire growth rate, against all evidence a bureaucratic approach has never ended poverty and never will. How do rich societies solve these problems? Well-developed free markets and democracy, with property rights and individual freedoms, simplify the task for each actor How can we think that aid accomplishing such modest tasks will bring an end to poverty? We can’t is a fallacy to think that overall poverty can be ended by a comprehensive package of “things The complex poverty of low-income societies will slowly give way to prosperity the same way it happened in rich countries, through political and economic freedom democracy” and “free markets” evolve from below with a lot of supporting social norms and institutions, they cannot be imposed from the top by the IMF [ such evolution of freedom from below, and the concomitant decline of poverty, is already happening in many places.
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Foreign Aid is bad- only domestic reforms solve
| 4,147 | 47 | 1,085 | 661 | 8 | 175 | 0.012103 | 0.26475 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
5,499 |
Neutral growth studies have often been prevalent in the literature on aid-growth relationships. One study focusing on the impact of aid on economic growth even with the inclusion of “bad” economic policies, found no significant results to affirm either a positive or negative relationship between aid and economic growth (Schwalbenberg 1998). One of the first studies to conclude that aid had no impact on economic growth was published by Peter Boone in 1996. His analysis of the politics and effectiveness of foreign aid found that while aid was responsible for increasing government size, it had no impact on investment, growth, or human development indicators (Boone 1996). A study comparing the impact of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and official development assistance (ODA) on poverty reduction concluded that while NGO aid had a positive and statistically significant relationship with poverty reduction, ODA had no effect on poverty reduction or income inequality (Masud and Yontcheva 2005). These results were based largely on the fact that NGOs have the capabilities to speedily commit to addressing practical issues surrounding social inequalities. A 2001 study investigating the impact of aid on growth concluded that once the outliers are removed from the population sample, aid has no impact upon economic growth (Dalgaard and Hansen 2001). A followup study performed three years later added a variable to account for the geographic location of developing countries. Their results showed that the relationship between aid and growth in countries situated in the tropics was non-existent (Dalgaard, Hansen and Tarp 2004).
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Castrillo, ’11 [May 2011, Anna Castrillo is B.A., Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, 2008, “FOREIGN AID‟S IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: CONDITIONAL ON ACCOUNTABLE INSTITUTIONS?”, http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-04142011-220952/unrestricted/Castrillothesis.pdf]
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Neutral growth studies have often been prevalent in the literature on aid-growth relationships the impact of aid on economic growth even with the inclusion of “bad” economic policies, found no significant results to affirm either a positive or negative relationship between aid and economic growth aid had no impact on economic growth was published by Peter Boone in 1996 while aid was responsible for increasing government size, it had no impact on investment, growth, or human development indicators (Boone 1996). non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and official development assistance (ODA) on poverty reduction concluded that while NGO aid had a positive and statistically significant relationship with poverty reduction, ODA had no effect on poverty reduction or income inequality NGOs have the capabilities to speedily commit to addressing practical issues surrounding social inequalities. the outliers are removed from the population sample, aid has no impact upon economic growth (Dalgaard and Hansen 2001)
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Aid has no affect on economic growth- NGOs better
| 1,643 | 49 | 1,016 | 249 | 9 | 149 | 0.036145 | 0.598394 |
Foreign Aid Toolbox - Northwestern 2013 6WeekJuniors.html5
|
Northwestern (NHSI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
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