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2,100 |
To ask whether the Russian economy will rid itself of its “dependence on oil” is to ask whether ideology will trump economics. Many people in Russia—including President Medvedev—seem to believe Russia should de-emphasize the role of oil, gas, and other commodities because they are “primitive.” Relying on them, they argue, is “degrading.” From the economic point of view, this makes no sense. Oil is Russia’s comparative advantage. It is the most competitive part of the economy. Oil and gas are something everyone wants, and Russia has more of them than anyone else. It is true that the Russian economy is backward, and that oil plays a role in that backwardness. But oil is not the root cause. The causes of Russia’s backwardness lie in its inherited production structure. The physical structure of the real economy (that is, the industries, plants, their location, work forces, equipment, products, and the production chains in which they participate) is predominantly the same as in the Soviet era. The problem is that it is precisely the oil wealth (the so-called oil rent) that is used to support and perpetuate the inefficient structure. For the sake of social and political stability, a large share of Russia’s oil and gas rents is distributed to the production enterprises that employ the inherited physical and human capital. The production and supply chains in that part of the economy are in effect “rent distribution chains.” A serious attempt to convert Russia’s economy into something resembling a modern Western economy would require dismantling this rent distribution system. This would be both highly destabilizing, and costly in terms of current welfare. Current efforts for “diversification” do not challenge the rent distribution system. On the contrary, the kinds of investment envisioned in those efforts will preserve and reinforce the rent distribution chains, and hence make Russia more dependent on oil rents. Even under optimal conditions for investment, any dream of creating a “non-oil” Russia that could perform as well as today’s commodity-based economy is unrealistic. The proportion of GDP that would have to be invested in non-oil sectors is impossibly high. Granted, some new firms, and even entire sectors, may grow on the outside of the oil and gas sectors and the rent distribution chains they support. But the development of the new sectors will be difficult, slow, and costly. Even if successful, the net value they generate will be too small relative to oil and gas to change the overall profile of the economy. Thus, while it is fashionable to talk of “diversification” of the Russian economy away from oil and gas, this is the least likely outcome for the country’s economic future. If Russia continues on the current course of pseudo-reform (which merely reinforces the old structures), oil and gas rents will remain important because they will be critical to support the inherently inefficient parts of the economy. On the other hand, if Russia were to somehow launch a genuine reform aimed at dismantling the old structures, the only realistic way to sustain success would be to focus on developing the commodity sectors. Russia could obtain higher growth if the oil and gas sectors were truly modern. Those sectors need to be opened to new entrants, with a level playing field for all participants. Most important, oil, gas, and other commodity companies need to be freed from the requirement to participate in the various informal schemes to share their rents with enterprises in the backward sectors inherited from the Soviet system. Certainly, there are issues with oil. It is a highly volatile source of wealth. But there are ways to hedge those risks. A bigger problem is that oil will eventually lose its special status as an energy source and therefore much of its value. But that time is far off. It will not happen suddenly. In the meantime, sensible policies can deal with the problems. Otherwise, the approach should be to generate the maximum value possible from the oil and protect that value through prudent fiscal policies. Russia should not, can not, and will not significantly reduce the role of oil and gas in its economy in the foreseeable future. It will only harm itself by ill-advised and futile efforts to try.
|
Gaddy 11 (Clifford G., Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution – Economist Specializing in Russia, Will the Russian economy rid itself of its dependence on oil?, July 16th, http://en.rian.ru/valdai_op/20110616/164645377.html)
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Many people in Russia including Medvedev seem to believe Russia should de-emphasize the role of oil because they are primitive From the economic point of view this makes no sense Oil is Russia’s comparative advantage. It is the most competitive part of the economy Oil and gas are something everyone wants and Russia has more of them than anyone else oil is not the root cause The causes of Russia’s backwardness lie in its inherited production structure The physical structure of the real economy is predominantly the same as in the Soviet era a large share of Russia’s oil and gas rents is distributed to the production enterprises that employ the inherited physical and human capital The production and supply chains in that part of the economy are in effect rent distribution chains A serious attempt to convert Russia’s economy would require dismantling this rent distribution system This would be both highly destabilizing and costly in terms of current welfare Current efforts for diversification do not challenge the rent distribution system On the contrary the kinds of investment envisioned in those efforts will preserve and reinforce the rent distribution chains and hence make Russia more dependent on oil rents any dream of creating a non-oil Russia that could perform as well as today’s commodity-based economy is unrealistic The proportion of GDP that would have to be invested in non-oil sectors is impossibly high the development of the new sectors will be difficult, slow and costly. Even if successful the net value they generate will be too small relative to oil and gas to change the overall profile of the economy while it is fashionable to talk of diversification of the Russian economy away from oil this is the least likely outcome for the country’s economic future If Russia continues on the current course of pseudo-reform oil rents will remain important because they will be critical to support the inherently inefficient parts of the economy if Russia were to somehow launch a genuine reform the only realistic way to sustain success would be to focus on developing the commodity sectors there are issues with oil It is a highly volatile source of wealth But there are ways to hedge those risks the approach should be to generate the maximum value possible from the oil and protect that value through prudent fiscal policies Russia should not can not and will not significantly reduce the role of oil in its economy in the foreseeable future It will only harm itself by ill-advised and futile efforts
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2. Economists vote negative --- Russia should capitalize on its comparative advantage.
| 4,282 | 87 | 2,530 | 702 | 12 | 422 | 0.017094 | 0.60114 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,101 |
FEELING gleeful at the misfortunes of others is an ugly-but-common human characteristic. The world delighted in our crashing economy, then we got our own back as Euro-bankers and Russian billionaires proved at least as greedy as our own money-thugs. Of all the pleasures to be found in the pain of others, though, none seems more justified than smugness over the panic in Moscow, Caracas and Tehran as oil prices plummet. We may need to be careful what we wish for. Successful states may generate trouble, but failures produce catastrophes: Nazi Germany erupted from the bankrupt Weimar Republic; Soviet Communism's economic disasters swelled the Gulag; a feckless state with unpaid armies enabled Mao's rise. Economic competition killed a million Tutsis in Rwanda. The deadliest conflict of our time, the multi-sided civil war in Congo, exploded into the power vacuum left by a bankrupt government. A resource-starved Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. The crucial point: The more a state has to lose, the less likely it is to risk losing it. "Dizzy with success," Russia's Vladimir Putin may have dismembered Georgia, but Russian tanks stopped short of Tbilisi as he calculated exactly how much he could get away with. But now, while our retirement plans have suffered a setback, Russia's stock market has crashed to a fifth of its value last May. Foreign investment has begun to shun Russia as though the ship of state has plague aboard. The murk of Russia's economy is ultimately impenetrable, but analysts take Moscow's word that it entered this crisis with over $500 billion in foreign-exchange reserves. At least $200 billion of that is now gone, while Russian markets still hemorrhage. And the price of oil - Russia's lifeblood - has fallen by nearly two-thirds. If oil climbs to $70 a barrel, the Russian economy may eke by. But the Kremlin can kiss off its military-modernization plans. Urgent infrastructure upgrades won't happen, either. And the population trapped outside the few garish city centers will continue to live lives that are nasty, brutish and short - on a good day. Should oil prices and shares keep tumbling, Russia will slip into polni bardak mode - politely translated as "resembling a dockside brothel on the skids." And that assumes that other aspects of the economy hold up - a fragile hope, given Russia's overleveraged concentration of wealth, fudged numbers and state lawlessness. Should we rejoice if the ruble continues to drop? Perhaps. But what incentive would Czar Vladimir have to halt his tanks short of Kiev, if his economy were a basket case shunned by the rest of the world? Leaders with failures in their laps like the distraction wars provide. (If religion is the opium of the people, nationalism is their methamphetamine.) The least we might expect would be an increased willingness on Moscow's part to sell advanced weapons to fellow rogue regimes. Of course, those rogues would need money to pay for the weapons (or for nuclear secrets sold by grasping officials). A positive side of the global downturn is that mischief-makers such as Iran and Venezuela are going to have a great deal less money with which to annoy civilization.
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Peters 8 (Ralph, Retired United States Army Lieutenant Colonel and Degree in International Relations from St. Mary’s University, Bankrupt Rogues: Beware Failing Foes, NY Post, November 29th, http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/item_Sq6rxuaQjf2dV655mfdh9M)
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Successful states may generate trouble but failures produce catastrophes Nazi Germany erupted from the bankrupt Weimar Republic Soviet Communism's economic disasters swelled the Gulag a feckless state with unpaid armies enabled Mao's rise The crucial point The more a state has to lose the less likely it is to risk losing it Dizzy with success Putin may have dismembered Georgia but Russian tanks stopped short of Tbilisi as he calculated exactly how much he could get away with the price of oil has fallen by nearly two-thirds Should oil prices and shares keep tumbling Russia will slip into mode politely translated as resembling a dockside brothel on the skids if the ruble continues to drop what incentive would Vladimir have to halt his tanks short of Kiev Leaders with failures in their laps like the distraction wars provide The least we might expect would be an increased willingness on Moscow's part to sell advanced weapons to fellow rogue regimes
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1. Economic decline is the largest internal link to Russian aggression.
| 3,174 | 72 | 958 | 524 | 11 | 159 | 0.020992 | 0.303435 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,102 |
Given time and the right circumstances, countries do recover. Sierra Leone and Liberia, for instance, no longer rank among the top 20 failing states, and Colombia has become a stunning success story. Few remember today that the Dominican Republic once vied with its neighbor Haiti for the title of “worst Caribbean basket case.” But the overall story of the Failed States Index is one of wearying constancy, and 2010 is proving to be no different: Crises in Guatemala, Honduras, Iran, and Nigeria — among others — threaten to push those unstable countries to the breaking point.
|
Impact Lab 10 (6/21, “The 2010 Failed States Index.” http://www.impactlab.com/2010/06/21/the-2010-failed-states-index/)
|
Given time countries do recover. Sierra Leone and Liberia no longer rank among the top 20 failing states, and Colombia has become a stunning success story. Few remember today that the Dominican Republic once vied with its neighbor Haiti for the title of “worst Caribbean basket case.” Crises in Guatemala, Honduras, Iran, and Nigeria — among others — threaten to push those unstable countries to the breaking point
|
No Venezuelan Failed States Impact - Many countries empirically deny
| 578 | 69 | 414 | 96 | 10 | 68 | 0.104167 | 0.708333 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,103 |
Within the existing literature on Arctic geopolitics and climate change, few authors explicitly define what they mean by "conflict." In fact, the term is often thrown around loosely, sometimes referring to a state of armed warfare or at other times to conflict of the political or diplomatic kind. While these uses are certainly legitimate and within the established meaning of the word, it makes for fuzzy boundaries and ambiguous projections: the chance or likelihood of future diplomatic "conflict," whatever that is intended to mean, most certainly differs—and probably differs starkly—from the chances of total war between two Arctic nations. Thus, for the purposes of this research, unless otherwise specified, conflict is defined as a militarized confrontation between at least two countries. No shots need be fired, nor do casualties need to be suffered. A formal declaration of war would also be too high of a standard for "conflict," as that would exclude such prominent wars like those in Korea, Vietnam, and the Persian Gulf on the basis of what has become in many respects a dispensable procedural formality. Rather, the mere formal invocation of some form of coercive force is sufficient to qualify an event as a form of conflict (e.g. ordering a ship to fire across the bow of another ship belonging to another nation). A baseline example of what would constitute a conflict, then, is the Turbot War of 1995 between Canada and Spain, where the Canadian Navy boarded a Spanish fishing vessel and arrested its crew for fishing in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone off the coast of Newfoundland (Nordås & Gleditsch 2007, 631). In this respect, this definition of conflict differs slightly from the typical notion of "war," which tends to connote much greater military mobilization and the number of causalities being greater than zero (Bremer 1992, 310). The logic for narrowing the scope of conflict in this respect is twofold. First, while there has certainly been a history of diplomatic dispute in the Arctic, there has yet to be any form of armed brinksmanship or militarized conflict to date—at least not since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. This leaves such future-facing projections on armed conflict—such as this research— still a relevant exercise. Second, it creates a clear distinction between what does constitute "conflict" and what does not. Definitions of conflict seeking to make qualitative judgments on the degree, size, or escalation of conflict inevitably invite criticism in terms of the arbitrariness of the line that renders some conflicts authentic and others as something else altogether
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Byron 12 (Ruby Byron, John Gardner Fellow at the U.S. Department of State in the Office of Global Change working on adaptation measures to climate change, Conflict or Cooperation? Arctic0 Geopolitics and Climate Change, 2012, Berkeley Undergraduate Journal, Office of Undergraduate Research, UC Berkeley)
|
Within the existing literature on Arctic geopolitics and climate change, few authors explicitly define what they mean by "conflict the term is often thrown around loosely, sometimes referring to a state of armed warfare or at other times to conflict of the political or diplomatic kind the chance or likelihood of future diplomatic "conflict," whatever that is intended to mean, most certainly differs—and probably differs starkly—from the chances of total war between two Arctic nations No shots need be fired, nor do casualties need to be suffered Rather, the mere formal invocation of some form of coercive force is sufficient to qualify an event as a form of conflict this definition of conflict differs slightly from the typical notion of "war," which tends to connote much greater military mobilization and the number of causalities being greater than zero there has certainly been a history of diplomatic dispute in the Arctic, there has yet to be any form of armed brinksmanship or militarized conflict Definitions of conflict seeking to make qualitative judgments on the degree, size, or escalation of conflict inevitably invite criticism in terms of the arbitrariness of the line that renders some conflicts authentic and others as something else altogether
|
Arctic conflicts will remain purely diplomatic
| 2,631 | 46 | 1,267 | 422 | 6 | 201 | 0.014218 | 0.476303 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,104 |
Norway/Russia (Barents Sea). The case of Russia and Norway serves as a demonstration of two states forgoing unilateral action in order to attain a more optimal outcome. According to their strategy statements, the preferred resource development outcomes of Russia and Norway are similar; both seek to develop Arctic resources to sustain existing exports and domestic industries and support social and economic development. The fisheries and oil and gas resources they seek to develop are found in the Barents Sea, where fish stocks cross between the waters of both states (transboundary) and through a formerly disputed area known as the Grey Zone. The same formerly disputed area is also believed to contain valuable energy resources. 70¶ Russia and Norway recognized early on that only cooperation in Barents Sea fisheries would yield an optimal outcome, one of sustainable fisheries and exclusion of undesirable third parties. 71 A 1975 treaty established a joint Norwegian/Russian fisheries commission, an 1976 treaty established a framework for cooperation on joint stocks, and a 1978 Grey Zone Agreement that governs the harvest limits, catch allocations, fishing gear in use, and division of enforcement authority in the Grey Zone. 72 Although outside the disputed Grey Zone, Norwegian state-owned StatoilHydro and Russia's Gazprom have recently signed a 3-year memorandum of understanding to work jointly to develop Shtokman field. 73 In late April 2010, Russia and Norway jointly announced that they had resolved their dispute over the delimitation of their maritime boundary in the Barents Sea and, subsequently, signed a treaty on maritime delimitation and cooperation in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean, effectively eliminating political uncertainty that has been one barrier to development of Barents Sea resources. 74¶ Canada/Denmark (Lincoln Sea). The Canada/Denmark case is similar to that of Russia and Norway. There exist overlapping claims in the Lincoln Sea. 75 However, the area of the claims is far smaller than the Grey Zone, perhaps to the point of being insignificant as far as resources are concerned. 76 Denmark and Canada's Arctic strategies reveal a preference for resource development to support economic development and, ultimately, economic independence of their Arctic territories. If the area of overlapping claims in the Lincoln Sea proves to contain energy and fisheries resources (or fisheries resources develop as a result of changing oceanographic conditions) and climate and market conditions support exploitation, industry investors will likely seek geopolitical stability before investing in energy development in the disputed areas.¶ Canada and Denmark face a dilemma of common interest. The preferred optimum result for the states appears to be development of the resources in the disputed area. To realize this optimal outcome, Canada and Denmark must collaborate to realize the geopolitical stability that may be a prerequisite to energy development and to manage transboundary fish stocks to prevent overfishing and ensure long-term stock conservation and utilization. The Russian/Norwegian management scheme in the Barents Sea, establishment of a joint fisheries commission to set catch limits and agreements on harvest allocation, enforcement, and cooperative development of energy resources, provides an model for a possible Canadian/Danish regime in the Lincoln Sea if the location of maritime borders cannot be agreed on.¶ Canada/United States (Beaufort Sea). In contrast to Russia, Norway, Denmark, and Canada, the United States does not express a strong preference for resource development. In keeping with the overall tone of its policy, the United States simply notes that it has interests in Arctic resources. At first glance, the Canadian development-oriented strategy and the more neutral U.S. policy seem at odds. Canadian strategy and recent federal actions have given attention to the area through commercial fisheries-related investments in Nunavut and the focus on the energy resources of Mackenzie Delta. 77 It seems that the United States and Canada have the same preferred outcome. Specifically, they wish to preserve their potential fisheries interests in the Beaufort Sea and energy interests where they have an overlapping territorial claim.¶ This seems to be a case where the states may obtain their desired outcome without cooperation. However, consider the hypothetical case where one country finds a compelling reason to begin fishing Beaufort Sea stocks or drilling for oil where the states have overlapping claims. This hypothetical scenario would place the interests of the other state at risk and suggests that the states actually have a dilemma of common interest. The optimal result, and incentive to collaborate, is a case where each state's interests in energy resources in the disputed area and potential transboundary Arctic fish stocks are not placed at risk by the activities of the other state. An informal moratorium on oil and gas development in the disputed region of the Beaufort Sea already exists to preserve the interests of both states. 78 A joint moratorium on fishing throughout the Beaufort Sea would ensure the states their preferred outcome: preservation of their interests in the Beaufort Sea.¶ At some future date, should there prove to be commercially viable fisheries in the Beaufort Sea or accessible energy resources in the area of overlapping claims that both states desire to exploit, a dilemma of common interest would still exist. Only the desired outcome would have changed, and Canada and the United States would have the same incentives to cooperate as Canada and Denmark. Again, the Norwegian/Russian agreements provide an example of a regime to address such issues. Both Canada and the United States appear amenable to the idea of new governance arrangements. The U.S. Arctic Policy explicitly states that new governance arrangements should be considered as human activities in the Arctic change. Canada's strategy is not as explicit, but it does indicate that Canada intends to continue to deepen cooperation with the United States on emerging Arctic issues.¶ United States/Russia. The case of the United States and Russia is similar to that of the United States and Canada. Their preferred outcomes, as stated in their strategy statements, seem at odds. But a regional view suggests that Russia's maritime focus is largely on development in northwest Russia rather than the Far East. 79 This suggests that both countries may at present be interested in preserving their interests in their border region. The United States and Russia do not have overlapping territorial claims in the Arctic, although Russia has not ratified the 1991 treaty delimiting the U.S./Russian maritime boundary. 80 Russia does, however, abide by its terms so, unlike the Canada/Denmark and Canada/U.S. cases, there does not appear to be any immediate concern over overlapping claims to energy resources. 81 This leaves potential transboundary Arctic fish stocks as an avenue for cooperation between Russia and the United States as existing agreements do not extend north of the Bering Strait. As with Canada, a joint moratorium on new fishing could ensure the states their preferred outcome: preservation of their fisheries interests in the Arctic.
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Brosnan, Leschine and Miles 11 [Ian, Thomas, Edwards. School of Marine Affairs University of Washington Seattle, Washington, USA. “Cooperation or Conflict in a Changing Arctic?” p. 23-25]
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The case of Russia and Norway serves as a demonstration of two states forgoing unilateral action to attain a more optimal outcome the preferred resource development outcomes are similar Russia and Norway recognized early that only cooperation would yield an optimal outcome Norwegian Statoil and Gazprom signed a memorandum to work jointly to develop The Canada/Denmark case is similar However, the area is far smaller to the point of being insignificant states may obtain their desired outcome without cooperation An informal moratorium on oil and gas development in the disputed region of the Beaufort Sea already exists to preserve the interests of both states The case of the United States and Russia is similar preferred outcomes seem at odds. But a regional view suggests that Russia's maritime focus is largely on development Russia does abide by its terms so there does not appear to be any immediate concern over energy resources
|
Prefer specifics—EVERY scenario for conflict has been mapped out and avoided easily
| 7,344 | 83 | 938 | 1,127 | 12 | 151 | 0.010648 | 0.133984 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,105 |
The second critical issue is that the US Dollar is the fiat currency for the world's oil and natural gas transactions which means that all the oil and natural gas purchased by the world's nations is purchased in US "petrodollars". Because of this, most nations hold in their banks Dollar reserves equal to the value of their own currency. US global hegemony is predicated on this very means of control. This arrangement for the world's energy supplies to be purchased in Dollars, and by effect to have the Dollar become fiat currency, was set up by the US and OPEC, largely because of our relationship with Saudi Arabia. If that relationship ends, through revolution or war, US hegemony ends, unless we occupy the oil fields till they run dry.
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Shaw 2004 (Charles, Editor-in-Chief, “Make the Greeleap,” Newtopia Magazine, Summer, http://www.newtopiamagazine.org/issue17/features/greenleap.php)
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the US Dollar is the fiat currency for the world's oil transactions Because of this, most nations hold Dollar reserves US global hegemony is predicated on this means of control. This arrangement was set up by the US and OPEC because of our relationship with Saudi Arabia. If that relationship ends, US hegemony ends
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Reducing Saudi Oil Kills heg
| 744 | 28 | 316 | 129 | 5 | 54 | 0.03876 | 0.418605 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,106 |
Saudis are uncharacteristically blunt when asked about George W Bush, the US president, and what his two-term administration has brought to the Middle East. Most see an abysmal legacy: a dangerous mess in Iraq, a deepening Israeli-Palestinian conflict and a volatile tug-of-war between Washington and Tehran, most recently on display in the embattled boulevards of Beirut.
|
Murphy 5/15/08 (Caryle, Foreign Correspondent, The National, "Saudi-US relations hit rocky road," http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080514/FOREIGN/946458903/1011/SPORT&Profile=1011)
|
Saudis are uncharacteristically blunt when asked about Bush, the US president
|
Oil’s Key to relations
| 372 | 22 | 77 | 56 | 4 | 11 | 0.071429 | 0.196429 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,107 |
Seventy-five years ago this month, California’s Standard Oil Company closed a deal with the finance minister of Saudi Arabia, a country the United States had only officially recognized two years earlier. The agreement granted the oil firm an exploration contract and initiated a multifaceted and sometimes thorny bilateral economic relationship. Today, oil still dominates U.S.-Saudi ties, which went on display May 16 when President Bush met Saudi’s King Abdullah. But the fairly straightforward buy-sell dynamic between the world’s leading importer and leading exporter of crude is increasingly complicated by a host of other issues, from security cooperation to currency concerns.
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Teslik 5/16/08 (Lee Hudson, Assistant Editor @ Council on Foreign Relations, "A Complicated Alliance," http://www.cfr.org/publication/16255/complicated_alliance.html?breadcrumb=%2F)
|
Seventy-five years ago this month, California’s Standard Oil Company closed a deal with the finance minister of Saudi Arabia The agreement granted the oil firm an exploration contract and initiated a multifaceted and sometimes thorny bilateral economic relationship. Today, oil still dominates U.S.-Saudi ties, which went on display May 16 when President Bush met Saudi’s King Abdullah
|
Oil dominates the US-Saudi relationship
| 683 | 40 | 385 | 100 | 5 | 57 | 0.05 | 0.57 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,108 |
The Saudis have a pool of strategic interests that likely put them at odds with American counterproliferation policy. Riyadh's major regional rivals are capable, or soon will be, of threatening the Saudi kingdom with nuclear brinkmanship; Israel has the most formidable nuclear weapons capabilities in the region; Iran appears bent on acquiring nuclear weapons; and Iraq might resurrect a nuclear weapons program after the Americans depart Baghdad. The Saudi royals might also worry that the United States could become a threat to the kingdom. The Saudis, for example, might consider a scenario in which relations between Riyadh and Washington deteriorate into conflict over the methods and means to combat al Qaeda. The Saudis realize that their conventional military capabilities-notwithstanding their modern weapons inventories-would be hard-pressed to defend against the larger military manpower pools in Iran or Iraq or against the sophisticated technological capabilities of the Israeli or the American militaries. In short, the Saudis would be strategically sensible to look to nuclear weapons as a potential "quick fix" to keep rivals at bay. The Saudis already have in place a foundation for building a nuclear weapons deterrent. In the mid-1980s, they clandestinely negotiated the purchase of about 50 to 60 Chinese CSS-2 missiles. The Chinese and Saudis were able to complete the deal before American intelligence was wise to the relationship. The Saudis paid handsomely, with about $3 billion to $3.5 billion dollars for the Chinese missiles capable of reaching up to about 4,000 kilometers [2,500 miles]. The CSS-2s had been armed with nuclear warheads when they were operational in the Chinese force structure, but Riyadh and Beijing claim that the missiles delivered to Saudi Arabia were armed with conventional warheads and rebuffed U.S. requests to inspect the missiles. The CSS-2 missiles, however, are too inaccurate to be militarily effective with conventional munitions, but more than accurate enough for the delivery of nuclear weapons. It is well past time for Washington to renew calls for independent inspection of the Saudi missiles to ensure that they are armed as the Chinese and Saudis claim, and that ballistic missile modernization efforts are not underway.
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Russell 1/5/04 (Richard, adjunct assistant professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University, Wash Times)
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Riyadh's major regional rivals are capable, or soon will be, of threatening the Saudi kingdom with nuclear brinkmanship; Israel has the most formidable nuclear weapons capabilities Iran appears bent on acquiring nuclear weapons; and Iraq might resurrect a nuclear weapons program The Saudis might consider a scenario in which relations between Riyadh and Washington deteriorate into conflict The Saudis realize that their conventional military capabilities would be hard-pressed to defend against the larger military manpower pools in Iran or Iraq In short, the Saudis would be strategically sensible to look to nuclear weapons as a potential "quick fix" to keep rivals at bay The Saudis already have in place a foundation for building a nuclear weapons deterrent. In the mid-1980s, they clandestinely negotiated the purchase of about 50 to 60 Chinese CSS-2 missiles The CSS-2s had been armed with nuclear warheads when they were operational in the Chinese force structure
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Saudi Arabian nuclear breakout is highly possible—they're fearful of regional security threats, possess the necessary CSS-2 missiles, and deteriorating US/Saudi relations could be the catalyst
| 2,288 | 192 | 972 | 352 | 25 | 150 | 0.071023 | 0.426136 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,109 |
Stronger Saudi policies open the risks of friction with Washington, which is Saudi Arabia's main arms supplier and had counted on Saudi support to push U.S. interests in the Arab world. There is virtually no chance of a serious rift, and U.S. and Saudi officials are on the same page on other pivotal showdowns, such as efforts to get Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down after months of protest and bloodshed. Saleh is recovering in Saudi Arabia after being badly injured in a June attack on his palace compound. But even small rough patches between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia take on heightened significance in the tense Mideast climate. The Saudi statement on Syria followed White House urging for the Saudis and their Arab allies to take a sharper stance on Assad's government. Days later, the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Syria, and presidential spokesman Jay Carney said Thursday that Syria "would be a much better place" without Assad in charge. In March, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Bahrain was on the "wrong track" to allow Saudi-led forces to help crush protests in the island kingdom which is home to the Pentagon's main military force in the region, the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. Rights groups also have called on U.S. officials to take a sharper stance against Saudi Arabia's crackdowns on internal dissent, including a proposed law that Amnesty International said would allow authorities to prosecute peaceful protests as a terrorist act. In Iraq, Saudi officials are deeply wary of the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite who owes his power to Iranian-allied political groups. Meanwhile, a higher regional profile invites uncomfortable scrutiny about Saudi royal succession with both King Abdullah and Crown Prince Sultan in their mid-80s and undergoing medical treatment this year. Christopher Boucek, who follows Mideast security issues at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes Saudi leaders view U.S. policymakers as more preoccupied with "being on the right side of history instead of standing by its friends." "Increasingly, it seems that Saudi Arabia looks out into the world and thinks that its foreign policy interests do not overlap with the United States and Washington's security interests," Boucek said. "Saudi Arabia is now in a position to pursue its own interests."
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ASSOCIATE PRESS ONLINE 8-13-2011 (“Mideast upheavals open doors for Saudi strategies,” Lexis)
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Stronger Saudi policies open the risks of friction with Washington U.S. and Saudi officials are on the same page on other pivotal showdowns, such as Yemen But even small rough patches between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia take on heightened significance in the tense Mideast climate. Clinton said Bahrain was on the "wrong track" to allow Saudi-led forces to help crush protests Saudi leaders view U.S. policymakers as more preoccupied with "being on the right side of history instead of standing by its friends "Increasingly, it seems that Saudi Arabia looks out into the world and thinks that its foreign policy interests do not overlap with the United States and Washington's security interests Saudi Arabia is now in a position to pursue its own interests
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The Arab Spring has strained US-Saudi ties—even small disagreements could escalate
| 2,374 | 82 | 755 | 381 | 11 | 125 | 0.028871 | 0.328084 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,110 |
Both sides remain deeply suspicious of the other. Many Republicans in Congress are opposed to trying to forge a new relationship with the Venezuelan government. On the Venezuelan side, Mr. Maduro or any other potential successor to Mr. Chávez is likely to try to claim the populist's revolutionary mantle and mimic his anti-U.S. rhetoric.
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DE CÓRDOBA and MUÑOZ, 13 (1/11/2013, JOSÉ DE CÓRDOBA and SARA MUÑOZ, “Venezuela, U.S. Start Talks to Mend Ties,” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324581504578235911777903292.html)
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Both sides remain deeply suspicious of the other. Many Republicans in Congress are opposed to trying to forge a new relationship with the Venezuelan government.
|
Congressional opposition to expanding engagement
| 338 | 48 | 160 | 54 | 5 | 25 | 0.092593 | 0.462963 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,111 |
U.S. senators are warning Latin American nations against deepening financial and military ties with Iran, pledging heightened U.S. vigilance of Iranian activities in the Western Hemisphere. The Senate's Foreign Relations Subcommittee took a close look on February 16 at Tehran’s dealings with Latin America. Iran’s increasingly isolated regime retains friends in Latin America, most notably Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
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Bowman, 12 (2/16/2012, Michael, “U.S. Congress Warns Venezuela over Ties with Iran,” http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=72042&pageid=17&pagename=News)
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U.S. senators are warning Latin American nations against deepening financial and military ties with Iran Iran retains friends in Latin America, most notably Venezuelan President Chavez
|
Congressional opposition to Venezuela because of ties to Iran
| 424 | 61 | 184 | 59 | 9 | 26 | 0.152542 | 0.440678 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,112 |
With considerable prodding from Congress—especially from the new Republican majority in the House—the Obama Administration and Department of State announced on May 24 that it is placing Venezuela’s national oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) on its list of companies sanctioned for their work in helping expand Iran’s petroleum and gasoline production.¶ The action followed PDVSA’s sale of $50 million in petroleum products in late 2010. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, moreover, has not backed down on his promise to supply Iran with 20,000 barrels of gasoline per day.¶ The new sanctions prohibit PDVSA from competing for U.S. government procurement contracts, from securing financing from the Export-Import Bank of the U.S., and from obtaining U.S. export licenses. These sanctions do not apply to PDVSA subsidiaries and do not prohibit the export of crude oil to the United States. The sanctions will not at present interfere with the operations of Venezuelan-owned refineries and CITIGO distribution or with import of Venezuelan crude oil.¶ The measured has long been urged by Republicans in both houses of Congress, including by the chairman of the House’s Western Hemisphere subcommittee Connie Mack (R–FL).¶ “It is imperative,” writes former Bush Administration official Jose Cardenas, “that U.S. investigators continue to strip away the layers of the Venezuelan-Iranian axis to examine what other forms of criminality are taking place, such as money laundering and Venezuelan-Hezbollah complicity in drug trafficking, in addition to Venezuelan-Iran military cooperation. (Germany’s Die Welt reported this month that Iran is planning to build medium-range missile bases in Venezuela, astride Panama Canal shipping lanes.)”¶ The Chavez regime predictably accused the U.S. of responding to the prohibited sales in “imperial fashion” and warned that it will consider reducing exports to the U.S., an action that might easily do more damage to the Venezuela’s battered economy than to the U.S. Chavez nonetheless will attempt to use the U.S. measures to whip up anti-American sentiment in advance of next year’s presidential elections.¶ The latest action is a long-overdue first step toward recognizing that the Chavez challenge presents a long-term threat to U.S. security in Latin America.
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Ray Walser 5-31-11 Ph.D. is a Senior Policy Analyst at The Heritage Foundation - http://blog.heritage.org/2011/05/31/sanctions-on-venezuela%E2%80%99s-oil-company-just-a-start/
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With considerable prodding from Congress the new Republican majority in the House the Obama Administration and Department of State announced that it is placing Venezuela’s national oil company PDVSA) on its list of companies sanctioned for their work in helping expand Iran’s petroleum and gasoline production. .¶ The measure has long been urged by Republicans in both houses of Congress, including by the chairman of the House’s Western Hemisphere subcommittee Connie Mack The Chavez regime predictably accused the U.S. of responding to the prohibited sales in “imperial fashion” and warned that it will consider reducing exports to the U.S., an action that might easily do more damage to the Venezuela’s battered economy than to the U.S. Chavez nonetheless will attempt to use the U.S. measures to whip up anti-American sentiment in advance of next year’s presidential elections.¶ The latest action is a long-overdue first step toward recognizing that the Chavez challenge presents a long-term threat to U.S. security in Latin America.
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Republicans strongly support oil sanctions in Venezuela
| 2,305 | 55 | 1,037 | 346 | 7 | 161 | 0.020231 | 0.465318 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,113 |
The State Department on Tuesday vehemently denied the United States was considering sanctions against Venezuela after the oil-rich country threatened to cut energy exports to the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Latin America Roberta Jacobson told CNN's Spanish channel over the weekend she did not know either way if the Obama administration would consider sanctions if the country does not have a full recount of last week's disputed presidential election. Foreign Minister Elias Jaua responded with a promise to retaliate if that happens, prompting State Department Spokesman Patrick Ventrell's remarks on Tuesday.¶ “I think the Venezuelan side may have looked at that … and read into [it that] we're considering something,” Ventrell said at his daily press briefing. “I'm saying that that's not something that we're currently contemplating at this moment.” Jauna had promised to counter with “trade, energy, economic and political measures as we deem necessary to respond forcefully to this unacceptable threat.”¶ “We do not accept any empire threats,” he told Venezuela's Telesur. “You can be sure that faced with any kind of sanctions, we will respond with economic, political, social and diplomatic actions to defend the sacred rights of the Venezuelan people.”¶ Several Republican lawmakers, including Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Fla.), have urged President Obama not to recognize the election of Nicolas Maduro unless allegations of voter fraud are investigated. Obama did not send a delegation to Maduro's inauguration as Hugo Chavez's successor on Friday, but the White House has expressed confidence in Venezuelan electoral officials' promise to audit the vote, which falls short of a full recount.¶ “We took positive note of the [National Electoral Council]'s decision to proceed with a recount and hope it will allow Venezuelans – regardless of which candidate they supported – to have confidence in the results of the electoral process,” a senior administration official told The Hill. “It is important that all sides feel that their democratic aspirations are being met.”
|
Julian Pecquet - 04/23/11 Foreign affairs reporter/blogger for The Hill. Washington, DC.
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The State Department enied the United States was considering sanctions against Venezuela after the oil-rich country threatened to cut energy exports to the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Latin America We do not accept any empire threats,” he told Venezuela's Telesur. “You can be sure that faced with any kind of sanctions, we will respond with economic, political, social and diplomatic actions to defend the sacred rights of the Venezuelan people.”¶ Several Republican lawmakers, including Sen. Rubio urged President Obama not to recognize the election of Maduro unless allegations of voter fraud are investigated.
|
Republicans support sanctions in Venezuela
| 2,118 | 43 | 623 | 326 | 5 | 95 | 0.015337 | 0.291411 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,114 |
China’s Vice President Li Yuanchao and Venezuelan Minister of Oil and Mining Rafael Ramirez today ratified their will to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the hydrocarbons field. In statements made from an oil extraction deposit of Sinovensa joint venture, in the Orinoco Oil Belt (OOB), the Chinese vice president said that the goal is to jointly produce 40 million tons of oil annually in the coming years.
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PLNA, 13 (5/17/2013, From Presna Latina News Agency, “Venezuela, China Strengthen Cooperation in Oil Sector,” http://www.energytribune.com/76932/venezuela-china-strengthen-cooperation-in-oil-sector#sthash.8RLoHoEy.dpbs)
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China’s Vice President and Venezuelan Minister of Oil and Mining ratified their will to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the hydrocarbons field the goal is to jointly produce 40 million tons of oil annually in the coming years
|
China signing oil deals to boost Venezuelan oil production
| 410 | 58 | 229 | 66 | 9 | 37 | 0.136364 | 0.560606 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,115 |
Other witnesses emphasized that the US will need to not make other countries feel it is not interfering in their internal affairs as it offers encouragement and assistance. That may prove difficult as China and other countries from outside the region negotiate resource agreements with teams of state energy companies and national banks, they conceded.
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Snow, 13 --- Washington Editor (4/29/2013, Nick, “US can play constructive Western Hemisphere role, House panel told,” http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-111/issue-4d/general-interest/us-can-play-constructive-western-hemisphere.html)
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the US will need to not make other countries feel it is not interfering in their internal affairs as it offers encouragement and assistance. That may prove difficult as China and other countries from outside the region negotiate resource agreements with teams of state energy companies and national banks
|
Plan will be seen as interference by China
| 352 | 42 | 304 | 55 | 8 | 49 | 0.145455 | 0.890909 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,116 |
But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate nuclear exchange—are not necessarily separable. It is just possible that some sort of terrorist attack, and especially an act of nuclear terrorism, could precipitate a chain of events leading to a massive exchange of nuclear weapons between two or more of the states that possess them. In this context, today’s and tomorrow’s terrorist groups might assume the place allotted during the early Cold War years to new state possessors of small nuclear arsenals who were seen as raising the risks of a catalytic nuclear war between the superpowers started by third parties. These risks were considered in the late 1950s and early 1960s as concerns grew about nuclear proliferation, the so-called n+1 problem. It may require a considerable amount of imagination to depict an especially plausible situation where an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massive inter-state nuclear war. For example, in the event of a terrorist nuclear attack on the United States, it might well be wondered just how Russia and/or China could plausibly be brought into the picture, not least because they seem unlikely to be fingered as the most obvious state sponsors or encouragers of terrorist groups. They would seem far too responsible to be involved in supporting that sort of terrorist behavior that could just as easily threaten them as well. Some possibilities, however remote, do suggest themselves. For example, how might the United States react if it was thought or discovered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Russian stocks,40 and if for some reason Moscow denied any responsibility for nuclear laxity? The correct attribution of that nuclear material to a particular country might not be a case of science fiction given the observation by Michael May et al. that while the debris resulting from a nuclear explosion would be “spread over a wide area in tiny fragments, its radioactivity makes it [is] detectable, identifiable and collectable, and a wealth of information can be obtained from its analysis: the efficiency of the explosion, the materials used and, most important … some indication of where the nuclear material came from.”41 Alternatively, if the act of nuclear terrorism came as a complete surprise, and American officials refused to believe that a terrorist group was fully responsible (or responsible at all) suspicion would shift immediately to state possessors. Ruling out Western ally countries like the United Kingdom and France, and probably Israel and India as well, authorities in Washington would be left with a very short list consisting of North Korea, perhaps Iran if its program continues, and possibly Pakistan. But at what stage would Russia and China be definitely ruled out in this high stakes game of nuclear Cluedo? In particular, if the act of nuclear terrorism occurred against a backdrop of existing tension in Washington’s relations with Russia and/or China, and at a time when threats had already been traded between these major powers, would officials and political leaders not be tempted to assume the worst? Of course, the chances of this occurring would only seem to increase if the United States was already involved in some sort of limited armed conflict with Russia and/or China, or if they were confronting each other from a distance in a proxy war, as unlikely as these developments may seem at the present time. The reverse might well apply too: should a nuclear terrorist attack occur in Russia or China during a period of heightened tension or even limited conflict with the United States, could Moscow and Beijing resist the pressures that might rise domestically to consider the United States as a possible perpetrator or encourager of the attack? Washington’s early response to a terrorist nuclear attack on its own soil might also raise the possibility of an unwanted (and nuclear aided) confrontation with Russia and/or China. For example, in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclear attack, the U.S. president might be expected to place the country’s armed forces, including its nuclear arsenal, on a higher stage of alert. In such a tense environment, when careful planning runs up against the friction of reality, it is just possible that Moscow and/or China might mistakenly read this as a sign of U.S. intentions to use force (and possibly nuclear force) against them. In that situation, the temptations to preempt such actions might grow, although it must be admitted that any preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response. As part of its initial response to the act of nuclear terrorism (as discussed earlier) Washington might decide to order a significant conventional (or nuclear) retaliatory or disarming attack against the leadership of the terrorist group and/or states seen to support that group. Depending on the identity and especially the location of these targets, Russia and/or China might interpret such action as being far too close for their comfort, and potentially as an infringement on their spheres of influence and even on their sovereignty. One far-fetched but perhaps not impossible scenario might stem from a judgment in Washington that some of the main aiders and abetters of the terrorist action resided somewhere such as Chechnya, perhaps in connection with what Allison claims is the “Chechen insurgents’ … long-standing interest in all things nuclear.”42 American pressure on that part of the world would almost certainly raise alarms in Moscow that might require a degree of advanced consultation from Washington that the latter found itself unable or unwilling to provide.
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Ayson 10 (Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington (Robert, July. “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 33, Issue 7. InformaWorld.)
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some sort of terrorist attack nuclear terrorism, could lead to a massive exchange of nuclear weapons between states raising the risks of a nuclear war between the superpowers started by third parties , in the event of a terrorist nuclear attack on the United States, it might well be wondered just how Russia and/or China could plausibly be brought into the picture , how might the United States react if it was thought or discovered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Russian stocks, suspicion would shift immediately to Russia and China if the act of nuclear terrorism occurred against a backdrop of existing tension in Washington’s relations with Russia and/or China, leaders assume the worst in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclear attack, the president might place the nuclear arsenal, on a higher alert. Moscow and China might read this as intentions to use force the temptations to preempt such actions grow Washington might decide to order a significant nuclear) retaliatory attack Russia and/or China might interpret such action as being far too close for their comfort, and potentially as an infringement on their spheres of influence and even on their sovereignty.
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Nuclear terrorism ensures great power conflict
| 5,771 | 46 | 1,274 | 926 | 6 | 206 | 0.006479 | 0.222462 |
Cuba Affirmative - GMU 2013.html5
|
Unknown
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,117 |
Some city in the world owes thanks to Colombia, which on Saturday blew away a terrorist seeking uranium for a nuclear bomb. Instead of thanks, we see only fury at Colombia over its incursion into Ecuador. Colombia's armed forces and national police performed one of the most spectacular anti-terror strikes in history, taking out FARC chieftain Raul Reyes, the No. 2 terrorist in the Marxist cocaine-trafficking guerrilla group. Using American training and satellite technology, the hit took out a member of the FARC's inner circle for the first time, ending all illusion of safety at the top. Identified by his Rolex watch, the Marxist thug had a $5 million price on his head. Better still, Colombia's well-trained armed forces seized three of his computers with some surprising contents: A FARC plan to buy 50 kilograms of uranium to expand into international terrorism. Colombia's victory followed a series of powerful blows against other FARC leaders. As defections from the group rise and the terrorist leadership is decapitated, a picture emerges of a war being won after nearly 50 years of fighting. But outside Colombia, do we hear "congratulations"? No. We hear complaints from nations such as France, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Italy that Colombia's forces went into Ecuador chasing a terrorist, violating its "sovereignty" -- even though, as documents show, Ecuador helped Colombian guerrillas make themselves at home in that country. Colombia apologized for the incursion, and had every right to expect understanding. But instead of a spotlight on Ecuador for harboring terror camps, critics focused on Colombia's trespassing. Those who've trumped up this false charge have much to answer for in their involvement in the FARC. Foremost among them, Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez screamed outrage, calling Colombia a "criminal" state for rubbing out the Rolex revolutionary. He then advocated the overthrow of Colombia's democratic government and sent 10 tank divisions and 6,000 troops to the Colombian border. He ordered Ecuador to do the same, raising the specter of war. That's bad enough. But Reyes' computers tell an even worse story -- that Chavez has been a state sponsor of terror, secretly funneling $300 million to the FARC. Ecuador, too, was surprisingly neck-deep in "commitments" to the FARC. These are acts of war. This changes the idea of Venezuela and Ecuador as upstanding members of the international community. We have no illusions about what they've done to their own democracies, but those who criticize only Colombia happily preserve the fiction. More specifically, to countries such as France and Argentina, Chavez has masqueraded as a neutral "mediator" in Colombia's conflict, persuading them to think he was an honest broker whose only interest was in freeing FARC hostages. In fact, he's the FARC's banker, safe-haven provider and advocate, urging Europe to take the FARC off the internationally recognized list of terrorist groups in exchange for the release of hostages. Europe has bought into Chavez's pretense of neutrality because it has always favored appeasement and payoffs over risky fighting as a means of winning wars and freeing hostages. It never works. And yet, at the exact moment of Colombia's victory, Europe suddenly seems interested in mediating a peace process between the FARC and Colombia, as if the two were moral equals and victory were impossible without concessions to terrorists. Chavez's involvement shows just how morally questionable that approach is. Colombia's critics in Europe, Latin America and elsewhere are playing a discredited peace game at the very hour of Colombia's victory. In so doing, they negate the only solution likely to free hostages and bring peace, which is fighting for it. In light of its success -- and the nuclear threat to the world the FARC poses -- Colombia deserves the right to give victory a chance.
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Investor's Business Daily, 3-4-8, "Let Colombia Win," l/n
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Some city in the world owes thanks to Colombia, which blew away a terrorist seeking uranium for a nuclear bomb. Colombia's well-trained armed forces seized computers with A FARC plan to buy uranium to expand into international terrorism In light of its success -- and the nuclear threat to the world the FARC poses -- Colombia deserves the right to give victory a chance.
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Organized crime can massively boost international nuclear terrorism
| 3,906 | 68 | 371 | 622 | 8 | 64 | 0.012862 | 0.102894 |
Cuba Affirmative - GMU 2013.html5
|
Unknown
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,118 |
What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living. Societies would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. This could lead to a third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious. Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.
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Sid-Ahmed 4 Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, Al-Ahram Weekly political analyst, 2004, Al-Ahram Weekly, "Extinction!" 8/26, no. 705, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm
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nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and frightening world in which we are now living Societies would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate speed up the arms race if the attack succeeds could lead to a third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious Unlike a conventional war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.
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Terrorism causes Extinction – tensions rise
| 875 | 43 | 671 | 148 | 6 | 112 | 0.040541 | 0.756757 |
Cuba Affirmative - GMU 2013.html5
|
Unknown
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,119 |
The fact is that estimates and models of fundamentally unknown probabilities only go so far. Even a 1 percent chance of nuclear terrorism over the next ten years would be enough to justify substantial action to reduce the risk, given the unimaginable scale of the consequences. No one in his right mind would operate a nuclear power plant upwind of a major city that had a 1 percent chance over ten years of blowing sky-high -- the risk would be understood by all to be too great. But that, in effect, is what countries are doing -- or worse -- by managing the world's nuclear stockpiles as they do today, and by not doing nearly as much as they should to address the multifaceted threat of nuclear terrorism.
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Bunn 10 Matthew Bunn, (Prof., Government, Harvard U.), DEBATING TERRORISM AND COUNTERTERRORISM: CONFLICTING PERSPECTIVES ON CAUSES, CONTEXTS, AND RESPONSES, 2010, 179.
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Even a 1 percent chance of nuclear terrorism would be enough to justify action given the unimaginable scale of the consequences. No one would operate a plant upwind of a major city that had a 1 percent chance of blowing sky-high -- the risk would be understood too great. But that, in effect, is what countries are doing -- or worse -- by managing the world's nuclear stockpiles as they do today by not address the threat of nuclear terrorism
|
Even a 1% risk of nuclear terrorism demands action
| 709 | 50 | 442 | 128 | 9 | 80 | 0.070313 | 0.625 |
Cuba Affirmative - GMU 2013.html5
|
Unknown
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,120 |
The response was very different among nuclear and national security experts when Indiana Republican Sen. Richard Lugar surveyed PDF them in 2005. This group of 85 experts judged that the possibility of a WMD attack against a city or other target somewhere in the world is real and increasing over time. The median estimate of the risk of a nuclear attack somewhere in the world by 2010 was 10 percent. The risk of an attack by 2015 doubled to 20 percent median. There was strong, though not universal, agreement that a nuclear attack is more likely to be carried out by a terrorist organization than by a government. The group was split 45 to 55 percent on whether terrorists were more likely to obtain an intact working nuclear weapon or manufacture one after obtaining weapon-grade nuclear material. "The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is not just a security problem," Lugar wrote in the report's introduction. "It is the economic dilemma and the moral challenge of the current age. On September 11, 2001, the world witnessed the destructive potential of international terrorism. But the September 11 attacks do not come close to approximating the destruction that would be unleashed by a nuclear weapon. Weapons of mass destruction have made it possible for a small nation, or even a sub-national group, to kill as many innocent people in a day as national armies killed in months of fighting during World War II. "The bottom line is this," Lugar concluded: "For the foreseeable future, the United States and other nations will face an existential threat from the intersection of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction." It's paradoxical that a diminished threat of a superpower nuclear exchange should somehow have resulted in a world where the danger of at least a single nuclear explosion in a major city has increased (and that city is as likely, or likelier, to be Moscow as it is to be Washington or New York). We tend to think that a terrorist nuclear attack would lead us to drive for the elimination of nuclear weapons. I think the opposite case is at least equally likely: A terrorist nuclear attack would almost certainly be followed by a retaliatory nuclear strike on whatever country we believed to be sheltering the perpetrators. That response would surely initiate a new round of nuclear armament and rearmament in the name of deterrence, however illogical. Think of how much 9/11 frightened us; think of how desperate our leaders were to prevent any further such attacks; think of the fact that we invaded and occupied a country, Iraq, that had nothing to do with those attacks in the name of sending a message.
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Rhodes 9 RICHARD RHODES He has been a visiting scholar at Harvard and MIT, and currently he is an affiliate of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Rhodes is the author of The Making of the Atomic Bomb (1986), which won the Pulitzer Prize in Nonfiction, National Book Award, and National Book Critics Circle Award. It was the first of four volumes he has written on the history of the nuclear age. Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb (1995), Arsenals of Folly: The Making of the Nuclear Arms Race (2007), and The Twilight of the Bombs (forthcoming in autumn 2010) are the others. Reducing the nuclear threat: The argument for public safety 14 DECEMBER 2009
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The response was very different among nuclear and national security experts when Indiana Republican Sen. Richard Lugar surveyed PDF them in 2005. This group of 85 experts judged that the possibility of a WMD attack against a city or other target somewhere in the world is real and increasing over time. There was strong, though not universal, agreement that a nuclear attack is more likely to be carried out by a terrorist organization than by a government "For the foreseeable future, the United States and other nations will face an existential threat from the intersection of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction." : A terrorist nuclear attack would almost certainly be followed by a retaliatory nuclear strike on whatever country we believed to be sheltering the perpetrators. That response would surely initiate a new round of nuclear armament and rearmament in the name of deterrence, however illogical. Think of how much 9/11 frightened us; think of how desperate our leaders were to prevent any further such attacks; think of the fact that we invaded and occupied a country, Iraq, that had nothing to do with those attacks in the name of sending a message.
|
Terrorism is the highest risk of extinction
| 2,648 | 43 | 1,170 | 448 | 7 | 194 | 0.015625 | 0.433036 |
Cuba Affirmative - GMU 2013.html5
|
Unknown
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,121 |
According to reports since 2003, the threat of nuclear terrorism is growing. For example, the 2003 US National Strategy for Combating Terrorism warned that the risk of nuclear terrorism has increased significantly and that it posed one of the greatest threats to the national security of the US and its allies. The 2006 report stressed that weapons of mass destruction (WMD) terrorism poses one of the gravest threats. The 2008 report of the Congressionally appointed Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism warned that the danger of nuclear terrorism is growing and, in the absence of urgent and decisive international action, that nuclear or biological terrorism is likely to occur somewhere in the world by the end of 2013. Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama have both termed nuclear terrorism the greatest threat facing the United States. Indeed, President Obama will even convene a global summit focusing on the threat of nuclear terrorism in April 2010. The Director of National Intelligence, John Michael McConnell, testified before Congress in February 2008 that al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups continue to seek nuclear weapons.3 Former US Secretary of Defense William Perry has warned that the probability of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next 10 years exceeds 50 percent, a view shared by Harvard expert Graham Allison.4 US Defense Secretary Robert Gates stated in January 2010 that "the thought of a terrorist ending up with a weapon of mass destruction, especially nuclear"5 would keep him awake at night.
|
Chuck Freilich, April 2010, The author was a Deputy National Security Adviser in Israel and is now a Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, where he has just completed a book on national security decision making processes in Israel. He is also an Adjunct Professor at New York University, “The Armageddon Scenario: Israel and the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism,” The Begin-Sadat Center For Strategic Studies (Bar-Ilan University) Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 84
|
The 2008 report of the Congressionally appointed Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism warned that the danger of nuclear terrorism is growing and that nuclear or biological terrorism is likely to occur somewhere in the world by the end of 2013 Bush and Obama have both termed nuclear terrorism the greatest threat facing the U S Former US Secretary of Defense William Perry has warned that the probability of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next 10 years exceeds 50 percent, a view shared by Harvard expert Graham Allison
|
Probability of nuclear terrorism in the next ten years is greater than fifty percent – greatest threat to America
| 1,578 | 113 | 573 | 250 | 19 | 95 | 0.076 | 0.38 |
Cuba Affirmative - GMU 2013.html5
|
Unknown
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
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2,122 |
MUELLER IS entitled to his opinion that the threat of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism is "exaggerated" and "overwrought." But analysts of various political persuasions, in and out of government, are virtually unanimous in their judgment to the contrary. As the national-security community learned during the Cold War, risk = likelihood x consequences. Thus, even when the likelihood of nuclear Armageddon was small, the consequences were so catastrophic that prudent policymakers felt a categorical imperative to do everything that feasibly could be done to prevent that war. Today, a single nuclear bomb exploding in just one city would change our world. Given such consequences, differences between a 1 percent and a 20 percent likelihood of such an attack are relatively insignificant when considering how we should respond to the threat. Richard Garwin, a designer of the hydrogen bomb who Enrico Fermi once called "the only true genius I had ever met", told Congress in March that he estimated a "20 percent per year probability [of a nuclear explosion--not just a contaminated, dirty bomb--a nuclear explosion] with American cities and European cities included." My Harvard colleague Matthew Bunn has created a model in the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science that estimates the probability of a nuclear terrorist attack over a ten-year period to be 29 percent--identical to the average estimate from a poll of security experts commissioned by Senator Richard Lugar in 2005. My book, Nuclear Terrorism, states my own best judgment that, on the current trend line, the chances of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next decade are greater than 50 percent. Former Secretary of Defense William Perry has expressed his own view that my work may even underestimate the risk. Warren Buffet, the world's most successful investor and legendary odds-maker in pricing insurance policies for unlikely but catastrophic events, concluded that nuclear terrorism is "inevitable." He stated, "I don't see any way that it won't happen."
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Graham Allison, 2007, Professor of Government, and Faculty Chair of the Dubai Initiative – Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, “Symposium: Apocalypse When?”, The National Interest, http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-7276950/The-three-nos-knows.html
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risk = likelihood x consequences. Thus, even when the likelihood of nuclear Armageddon was small, the consequences were so catastrophic that prudent policymakers felt a categorical imperative to do everything that feasibly could be done to prevent that war. Today, a single nuclear bomb exploding in just one city would change our world. Given such consequences, differences between a 1 percent and a 20 percent likelihood of such an attack are relatively insignificant when considering how we should respond to the threat Garwin told Congress that he estimated a "20 percent per year probability [of a nuclear explosion with American cities and European cities included Bunn has created a model in the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science that estimates the probability of a nuclear terrorist attack over a ten-year period to be 29 percent on the current trend line, the chances of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next decade are greater than 50 percent Perry has expressed his own view that my work may even underestimate the risk Buffet concluded that nuclear terrorism is "inevitable
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You should prioritize the sheer magnitude of a nuclear terrorist attack – probability doesn’t apply to our scenario
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The requirements given thus far are primarily negative. The ambiguists must say "no" to-they must reject and limit-some ideas and actions. In what follows, we will also find that they must say "yes" to some things. In particular, they must say "yes" to the idea of rational persuasion. This means, first, that they must recognize the role of agreement in political contest, or the basic accord that is necessary to discord. The mistake that the ambiguists make here is a common one. The mistake is in thinking that agreement marks the end of contest-that consensus kills debate. But this is true only if the agreement is perfect-if there is nothing at all left to question or contest. In most cases, however, our agreements are highly imperfect. We agree on some matters but not on others, on generalities but not on specifics, on principles but not on their applications, and so on. And this kind of limited agreement is the starting condition of contest and debate. As John Courtney Murray writes: We hold certain truths; therefore we can argue about them. It seems to have been one of the corruptions of intelligence by positivism to assume that argument ends when agreement is reached. In a basic sense, the reverse is true. There can be no argument except on the premise, and within a context, of agreement. (Murray 1960, 10) In other words, we cannot argue about something if we are not communicating: if we cannot agree on the topic and terms of argument or if we have utterly different ideas about what counts as evidence or good argument. At the very least, we must agree about what it is that is being debated before we can debate it. For instance, one cannot have an argument about euthanasia with someone who thinks euthanasia is a musical group. One cannot successfully stage a sit-in if one's target audience simply thinks everyone is resting or if those doing the sitting have no complaints. Nor can one demonstrate resistance to a policy if no one knows that it is a policy. In other words, contest is meaningless if there is a lack of agreement or communication about what is being contested. Resisters, demonstrators, and debaters must have some shared ideas about the subject and/or the terms of their disagreements. The participants and the target of a sit-in must share an understanding of the complaint at hand. And a demonstrator's audience must know what is being resisted. In short, the contesting of an idea presumes some agreement about what that idea is and how one might go about intelligibly contesting it. In other words, contestation rests on some basic agreement or harmony.
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Shively, Assistant Prof Political Science at Texas A&M, 2K — [Ruth Lessl, Assistant Prof Political Science at Texas A&M, 2000 “Partisan Politics and Political Theory,” p. 181-2, Accessed on July 5, 2013)][SP]
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ambiguists must say "no" to-they must reject and limit-some ideas and actions. they must say "yes" to some things. In particular, they must say "yes" to the idea of rational persuasion. they must recognize the role of agreement in political contest, or the basic accord that is necessary to discord. The mistake that the ambiguists make here is in thinking that agreement marks the end of contest-that consensus kills debate But this is true only if the agreement is perfect In most cases, however, our agreements are highly imperfect. We agree on some matters but not on others, on generalities but not on specifics, on principles but not on their applications, and so on. And this kind of limited agreement is the starting condition of contest and debate. We hold certain truths; therefore we can argue about them It seems to have been one of the corruptions of intelligence by positivism to assume that argument ends when agreement is reached. In a basic sense, the reverse is true There can be no argument except on the premise of agreement. we cannot argue about something if we are not communicating: if we cannot agree on the topic and terms of argument or if we have utterly different ideas about what counts as evidence or good argument. At the very least, we must agree about what it is that is being debated before we can debate it. One cannot successfully stage a sit-in if one's target audience simply thinks everyone is resting or if those doing the sitting have no complaints. Nor can one demonstrate resistance to a policy if no one knows that it is a policy. contest is meaningless if there is a lack of agreement or communication about what is being contested. Resisters, demonstrators, and debaters must have some shared ideas about the subject and/or the terms of their disagreements. the contesting of an idea presumes some agreement about what that idea is and how one might go about intelligibly contesting it. In other words, contestation rests on some basic agreement or harmony.
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Interpretation: The role of the ballot is to decide between a topical plan and the status quo or a competitive policy alternative.
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The point may seem trite, as surely the ambiguists would agree that basic terms must be shared before they can be resisted and problematized. In fact, they are often very candid about this seeming paradox in their approach: the paradoxical or "parasitic" need of the subversive for an order to subvert. But admitting the paradox is not helpful if, as usually happens here, its implications are ignored; or if the only implication drawn is that order or harmony is an unhappy fixture of human life. For what the paradox should tell us is that some kinds of harmonies or orders are, in fact, good for resistance; and some ought to be fully supported. As such, it should counsel against the kind of careless rhetoric that lumps all orders or harmonies together as arbitrary and inhumane. Clearly some basic accord about the terms of contest is a necessary ground for all further contest. It may be that if the ambiguists wish to remain full-fledged ambiguists, they cannot admit to these implications, for to open the door to some agreements or reasons as good and some orders as helpful or necessary, is to open the door to some sort of rationalism. Perhaps they might just continue to insist that this initial condition is ironic, but that the irony should not stand in the way of the real business of subversion. Yet difficulties remain. For and then proceed to debate without attention to further agreements. For debate and contest are forms of dialogue: that is, they are activities premised on the building of progressive agreements. Imagine, for instance, that two people are having an argument about the issue of gun control. As noted earlier, in any argument, certain initial agreements will be needed just to begin the discussion. At the very least, the two discussants must agree on basic terms: for example, they must have some shared sense of what gun control is about; what is at issue in arguing about it; what facts are being contested, and so on. They must also agree—and they do so simply by entering into debate—that they will not use violence or threats in making their cases and that they are willing to listen to, and to be persuaded by, good arguments. Such agreements are simply implicit in the act of argumentation.
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Shively, Assistant Prof Political Science at Texas A&M, 2K — [Ruth Lessl, Assistant Prof Political Science at Texas A&M, 2000 “Partisan Politics and Political Theory,” p. 182-3, Accessed on July 5, 2013)][SP]
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The point may seem trite, as surely the ambiguists would agree that basic terms must be shared before they can be resisted and problematized. paradox should tell us is that some kinds of harmonies or orders are, in fact, good for resistance; and some ought to be fully supported. , it should counsel against the kind of careless rhetoric that lumps all orders or harmonies together as arbitrary and inhumane. Clearly some basic accord about the terms of contest is a necessary ground for all further contest. to open the door to some agreements or reasons as good and some orders as helpful or necessary, is to open the door to some sort of rationalism. , in any argument, certain initial agreements will be needed just to begin the discussion. At the very least, the two discussants must agree on basic terms
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This is a d-rule – impossible to be negative without prior agreement on the terms of the resolution
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Thus far, I have argued that if the ambiguists mean to be subversive about anything, they need to be conservative about some things. They need to be steadfast supporters of the structures of openness and democracy: willing to say "no" to certain forms of contest; willing to set up certain clear limitations about acceptable behavior. To this, finally, I would add that if the ambiguists mean to stretch the boundaries of behavior—if they want to be revolutionary and disruptive in their skepticism and iconoclasm—they need first to be firm believers in something. Which is to say, again, they need to set clear limits about what they will and will not support, what they do and do not believe to be best. As G. K. Chesterton observed, the true revolutionary has always willed something "definite and limited." For example, "The Jacobin could tell you not only the system he would rebel against, but (what was more important) the system he would not rebel against..." He "desired the freedoms of democracy." He "wished to have votes and not to have titles . . ." But "because the new rebel is a skeptic"—because he cannot bring himself to will something definite and limited— "he cannot be a revolutionary." For "the fact that he wants to doubt everything really gets in his way when he wants to denounce anything" (Chesterton 1959,41). Thus, the most radical skepticism ends in the most radical conservatism. In other words, a refusal to judge among ideas and activities is, in the end, an endorsement of the status quo. To embrace everything is to be unable to embrace a particular plan of action, for to embrace a particular plan of action is to reject all others, at least for that moment. Moreover, as observed in our discussion of openness, to embrace everything is to embrace self-contradiction: to hold to both one's purposes and to that which defeats one's purposes—to tolerance and intolerance, open-mindedness and close-mindedness, democracy and tyranny. In the same manner, then, the ambiguists' refusals to will something "definite and limited" undermines their revolutionary impulses. In their refusal to say what they will not celebrate and what they will not rebel against, they deny themselves (and everyone else in their political world) a particular plan or ground to work from. By refusing to deny incivility, they deny themselves a civil public space from which to speak. They cannot say "no" to the terrorist who would silence dissent. They cannot turn their backs on the bullying of the white supremacist. And, as such, in refusing to bar the tactics of the anti-democrat, they refuse to support the tactics of the democrat. In short, then, to be a true ambiguist, there must be some limit to what is ambiguous. To fully support political contest, one must fully support some uncontested rules and reasons. To generally reject the silencing or exclusion of others, one must sometimes silence or exclude those who reject civility and democracy.
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Shively, Assistant Prof Political Science at Texas A&M, 2K — [Ruth Lessl, Assistant Prof Political Science at Texas A&M, 2000 “Partisan Politics and Political Theory,” p. 180, Accessed on July 5, 2013)][SP]
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if ambiguists mean to be subversive they need to set up clear limitations if they want to be revolutionary in something they need to set clear limits about what they will and will not support "because the new rebel is a skeptic"—because he cannot bring himself to will something definite and limited— "he cannot be a revolutionary." , a refusal to judge among ideas and activities is, in the end, an endorsement of the status quo. the ambiguists' refusals to will something "definite and limited" undermines their revolutionary impulses. In their refusal to say what they will not celebrate and what they will not rebel against, they deny themselves (and everyon a particular plan or ground to work from. there must be some limit To support political contest, one must support rules To reject the exclusion of others, one must sometimes exclude those who reject civility and democracy
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Our argument doesn’t preclude revolutionary conceptions of the resolution –grounding radical activism in the rules of political contest is the only truly subversive act
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Debate as a dialogue sets an argumentative table, where all parties receive a relatively fair opportunity to voice their position. Anything that fails to allow participants to have their position articulated denies one side of the argumentative table a fair hearing. The affirmative side is set by the topic and fairness requirements. While affirmative teams have recently resisted affirming the topic, in fact, the topic selection process is rigorous, taking the relative ground of each topic as its central point of departure.
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Galloway, Samford University communications professor, 07 — [Ryan Galloway, professor of communications at Samford University (“Dinner And Conversation At The Argumentative Table: Reconceptualizing Debate As An Argumentative Dialogue”, Contemporary Argumentation and Debate, Vol. 28 (2007), ebsco)][SP]
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Debate as a dialogue sets an argumentative table, where all parties receive a fair opportunity to voice their position. The affirmative side is set by the topic and fairness requirements the topic selection process is rigorous, taking the relative ground of each topic as its central point of departure.
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Predictability – Diversion from topic focus unfairly gives shifts ground — hurts debate
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SOCIAL WORKERS HAVE a professional responsibility to shape social policy and legislation (National Association of Social Workers, 1996). In recent decades, the concept of policy practice has encouraged social workers to consider the ways in which their work can be advanced through active participation in the policy arena (Jansson, 1984, 1994; Wyers, 1991). The emergence of the policy practice framework has focused greater attention on the competencies required for social workers to influence social policy and placed greater emphasis on preparing social work students for policy intervention (Dear & Patti, 1981; Jansson, 1984, 1994; Mahaffey & Hanks, 1982; McInnis-Dittrich, 1994). The curriculum standards of the Council on Social Work Education (CSWE) require the teaching of knowledge and skills in the political process (CSWE, 1994). With this formal expectation of policy education in schools of social work, the best instructional methods must be employed to ensure students acquire the requisite policy practice skills and perspectives. The authors believe that structured student debates have great potential for promoting competence in policy practice and in-depth knowledge of substantive topics relevant to social policy. Like other interactive assignments designed to more closely resemble "real-world" activities, issue-oriented debates actively engage students in course content. Debates also allow students to develop and exercise skills that may translate to political activities, such as testifying before legislative committees. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, debates may help to stimulate critical thinking by shaking students free from established opinions and helping them to appreciate the complexities involved in policy dilemmas. Relationships between Policy Practice Skills, Critical Thinking, and Learning Policy practice encompasses social workers' "efforts to influence the development, enactment, implementation, or assessment of social policies" (Jansson, 1994, p. 8). Effective policy practice involves analytic activities, such as defining issues, gathering data, conducting research, identifying and prioritizing policy options, and creating policy proposals (Jansson, 1994). It also involves persuasive activities intended to influence opinions and outcomes, such as discussing and debating issues, organizing coalitions and task forces, and providing testimony. According to Jansson (1984,pp. 57-58), social workers rely upon five fundamental skills when pursuing policy practice activities: value-clarification skills for identifying and assessing the underlying values inherent in policy positions; conceptual skills for identifying and evaluating the relative merits of different policy options; interactional skills for interpreting the values and positions of others and conveying one's own point of view in a convincing manner; political skills for developing coalitions and developing effective strategies; and position-taking skills for recommending, advocating, and defending a particular policy. These policy practice skills reflect the hallmarks of critical thinking (see Brookfield, 1987; Gambrill, 1997). The central activities of critical thinking are identifying and challenging underlying assumptions, exploring alternative ways of thinking and acting, and arriving at commitments after a period of questioning, analysis, and reflection (Brookfield, 1987). Significant parallels exist with the policy-making process--identifying the values underlying policy choices, recognizing and evaluating multiple alternatives, and taking a position and advocating for its adoption. Developing policy practice skills seems to share much in common with developing capacities for critical thinking. R.W. Paul (as cited in Gambrill, 1997) states that critical thinkers acknowledge the imperative to argue from opposing points of view and to seek to identify weakness and limitations in one's own position. Critical thinkers are aware that there are many legitimate points of view, each of which (when thought through) may yield some level of insight. (p. 126) John Dewey, the philosopher and educational reformer, suggested that the initial advance in the development of reflective thought occurs in the transition from holding fixed, static ideas to an attitude of doubt and questioning engendered by exposure to alternative views in social discourse (Baker, 1955, pp. 36-40). Doubt, confusion, and conflict resulting from discussion of diverse perspectives "force comparison, selection, and reformulation of ideas and meanings" (Baker, 1955, p. 45). Subsequent educational theorists have contended that learning requires openness to divergent ideas in combination with the ability to synthesize disparate views into a purposeful resolution (Kolb, 1984; Perry, 1970). On the one hand, clinging to the certainty of one's beliefs risks dogmatism, rigidity, and the inability to learn from new experiences. On the other hand, if one's opinion is altered by every new experience, the result is insecurity, paralysis, and the inability to take effective action. The educator's role is to help students develop the capacity to incorporate new and sometimes conflicting ideas and experiences into a coherent cognitive framework. Kolb suggests that, "if the education process begins by bringing out the learner's beliefs and theories, examining and testing them, and then integrating the new, more refined ideas in the person's belief systems, the learning process will be facilitated" (p. 28). The authors believe that involving students in substantive debates challenges them to learn and grow in the fashion described by Dewey and Kolb. Participation in a debate stimulates clarification and critical evaluation of the evidence, logic, and values underlying one's own policy position. In addition, to debate effectively students must understand and accurately evaluate the opposing perspective. The ensuing tension between two distinct but legitimate views is designed to yield a reevaluation and reconstruction of knowledge and beliefs pertaining to the issue.
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Keller, University of Chicago School of Social Service Administration Professor, et. al, 01 – [Asst. professor School of Social Service Administration U. of Chicago (Thomas E., James K., and Tracly K., Asst. professor School of Social Service Administration U. of Chicago, professor of Social Work, and doctoral student School of Social Work, 2001 (“Student debates in policy courses: promoting policy practice skills and knowledge through active learning,” Journal of Social Work Education, Spr/Summer 2001, EBSCOhost, Accessed on July 5, 2013)][SP]
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The emergence of the policy practice framework has focused greater attention on the competencies required for social workers to influence social policy and placed greater emphasis on preparing social work students for policy intervention With this formal expectation of policy education the best instructional methods must be employed to ensure students acquire the requisite policy practice skills and perspectives structured student debates have great potential for promoting competence in policy practice and in-depth knowledge of substantive topics relevant to social policy. issue-oriented debates actively engage students in course content. Debates also allow students to develop and exercise skills that may translate to political activities, such as testifying before legislative committees. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, debates may help to stimulate critical thinking by shaking students free from established opinions and helping them to appreciate the complexities involved in policy dilemmas. critical thinkers acknowledge the imperative to argue from opposing points of view and to seek to identify weakness and limitations in one's own position. Critical thinkers are aware that there are many legitimate points of view, each of which (when thought through) may yield some level of insight. (p. 126) John Dewey, the philosopher and educational reformer, suggested that the initial advance in the development of reflective thought occurs in the transition from holding fixed, static ideas to an attitude of doubt and questioning engendered by exposure to alternative views in social discourse Doubt, confusion, and conflict resulting from discussion of diverse perspectives "force comparison, selection, and reformulation of ideas and meanings" learning requires openness to divergent ideas in combination with the ability to synthesize disparate views into a purposeful resolution (Kolb, 1984; Perry, 1970). On the one hand, clinging to the certainty of one's beliefs risks dogmatism, rigidity, and the inability to learn from new experiences involving students in substantive debates challenges them to learn and grow in the fashion described by Dewey and Kolb. Participation in a debate stimulates clarification and critical evaluation of the evidence, logic, and values underlying one's own policy position. In addition, to debate effectively students must understand and accurately evaluate the opposing perspective. The ensuing tension between two distinct but legitimate views is designed to yield a reevaluation and reconstruction of knowledge and beliefs pertaining to the issue.
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Our framework forces debates on both sides of a social issue which stimulates critical thinking and helps students understand the complexities of policy dilemmas – this is critical to check dogmatism
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Unfortunately, it is precisely these elements of citizen action that cannot be explained by a theory of communicative action. It is here that a performative conception of political action implicitly informs Hager’s discussion. From a performative perspective, the goal of action is not only to secure a realm for deliberative politics, but to disrupt and resist the norms and identities that structure such a realm and its participants. While Habermas theorizes that political solutions will emerge from dialogue, a performative understanding of participation highlights the limits of dialogue and the creative and often uncontrollable effect of unpremeditated action on the very foundations of communication. When we look at the success of citizen initiatives from a performative perspective, we look precisely at those moments of defiance and disruption that bring the invisible and unimaginable into view. Although citizens were minimally successful in influencing or controlling the outcome of the policy debate and experienced a considerable lack of autonomy in their coercion into the technical debate, the goal-oriented debate within the energy commissions could be seen as a defiant moment of performative politics. The existence of a goal-oriented debate within a technically dominated arena defied the normalizing separation between expert policymakers and consuming citizens. Citizens momentarily recreated themselves as policymakers in a system that defined citizens out of the policy process, thereby refusing their construction as passive clients.
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Kulynych, PolySci Professor at Winthorp University 97 [Jessica, Winter 1997, “Performing Politics: Foucault, Habermas, and Postmodern Participation,” Polity, Vol. 30: No. 2, p. 344-5, JFS]
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these elements of citizen action cannot be explained by communicative action a performative conception of political action is not only to secure a realm for deliberative politics, but to disrupt the norms that structure such a realm and its participants. a performative understanding of participation highlights the limits of dialogue citizen initiatives from a performative perspective look at moments of defiance that bring the unimaginable into view debate defied the normalizing separation between expert policymakers and consuming citizens. Citizens momentarily recreated themselves as policymakers in a system that defined citizens out of the policy process, thereby refusing their construction as passive clients.
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Pretending to fill the role of policymakers is key to prevent exclusion and fight political passivity
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Latin American Studies is a vibrant and expanding area of academic activity attracting scholars from a wide range of disciplines and interests, including history, music, film and media studies, economics, languages, geography, politics, anthropology, international relations, sociology and literature.
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Carpenter University of Derby Research Manager 13 [Victoria, Society for Latin American Studies, “Why Study Latin America?”, http://www.slas.org.uk/studyingLA/whyLatinA.htm, accessed 7/7/13, ALT]
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Latin American Studies is a vibrant and expanding area of academic activity from a wide range of disciplines including history, music, film and media studies, economics, languages, geography, politics, anthropology, international relations, sociology and literature.
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Latin American studies incorporates an innovate, interdisciplinary approach.
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For the past 50 years, scholars and practitioners of international relations have used simulations to model real-world environments. Simulations can be conducted as experimental tools to allow researchers to develop and test theories of decision making and other processes. Simulations can also be used as predictive tools to help policy makers weigh various outcomes. Finally, simulations can be used as educational tools to help student participants understand the way the international system works and to apply decision-making theory to the solution of real-world problems.1 Although the reasons for simulating the international system have remained relatively constant over time, the types and structures of these simulations have changed dramatically since 1950, owing in part to shifts in theory and politics during that period. Of particular interest is the role that technology has played in fostering innovation in the design and delivery of simulation exercises for educational purposes. Although the use of simulations for research purposes has declined since the 1950s and 1960s, the use of international relations (IR) simulations for teaching purposes has rapidly expanded, with representations becoming more complex owing to the technology-mediated tools available.2 In education, simulations give students the opportunity to learn experientially and have been shown to “develop different skills from [conventional] classroom teaching—especially those of being imaginative and innovative” (Winham, 1991, p. 417). Such exercises place participants in roles and require them to overcome various obstacles in their pursuit of goals (Walcott, 1980, p. 1). Simulations of the international system can create worldwide laboratories for learners, helping them to gain understanding of the complexity of key issues (Starkey & Wilkenfeld, 1996, p. 25) by navigating the international system from the perspective of real-world decision makers.3
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Starkley and Blake, University of Maryland, 2001 (Brigid and Elizabeth, Simulation in international relations education, http://maaz.ihmc.us/rid=1K7F7521P-2BS8TQR-V0T/Garcia%20Carbonell%20et%20al%20-%20Simulation.pdf#page=94, Accessed- 7-6-13, RRR)
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practitioners of international relations have used simulations to model real-world environments. Simulations can be conducted as experimental tools to allow researchers to develop and test theories of decision making Simulations can also be used as predictive tools to help policy makers weigh various outcomes. simulations can be used as educational tools to help student participants understand the way the international system works and to apply decision-making theory to the solution of real-world problems. Although the use of simulations for research purposes has declined since the 1950s and 1960s, the use of international relations (IR) simulations for teaching purposes has rapidly expanded, In education, simulations give students the opportunity to learn experientially and have been shown to “develop different skills from [conventional] classroom teaching—especially those of being imaginative and innovative” Such exercises place participants in roles and require them to overcome various obstacles in their pursuit of goals Simulations of the international system can create worldwide laboratories for learners, helping them to gain understanding of the complexity of key issues by navigating the international system from the perspective of real-world decision makers.
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Discussion of IR Policy is critical for skill development and advocacy skills
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A debate education becomes a way for students to think of themselves as activists and critics of society. This is a practice of empowerment. Warner and Brushke (2001) continue to highlight how practicing public speaking itself may be vitally empowering. Speaking in a highly engaged academic environment where the goal is analytical victory would put many on edge. Taking academic risks in a debate round, however, yields additional benefits. The process of debating allows students to practice listening and conceiving and re-conceiving ideas based on in-round cooperation. This cooperation, even between competing teams, establishes respect for the process of deliberation. This practice may in turn empower students to use speaking and listening skills outside the debate round and in their local communities skills making students more comfortable talking to people who are different from them (Warner and Brushke, 2001, p. 4-7). Moreover, there is inherent value in turning the traditional tables of learning around. Reversing the traditional classroom demonstrates students taking control of their own learning through the praxis of argumentation. Students learn to depend on themselves and their colleagues for information and knowledge and must cooperate through the debate process. Taken together, policy debate aids academic achievement, student behavior, critical thinking, and empowers students to view themselves as qualified agents for social change.
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Zwarensteyn, Grand Valley State Masters’ student, 12 [Ellen C., 8-1-2012 “High School Policy Debate as an Enduring Pathway to Political Education: Evaluating Possibilities for Political Learning” http://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1034&context=theses accessed: 7/5/13 EYS]
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A debate education becomes a way for students to think of themselves as activists and critics of society. This is a practice of empowerment. practicing public speaking itself may be vitally empowering . Taking academic risks in a debate round, however, yields additional benefits. The process of debating allows students to practice listening and conceiving and re-conceiving ideas based on in-round cooperation. This practice may in turn empower students to use speaking and listening skills outside the debate round and in their local communities skills making students more comfortable talking to people who are different from them there is inherent value in turning the traditional tables of learning around. Reversing the traditional classroom demonstrates students taking control of their own learning through the praxis of argumentation. Students learn to depend on themselves and their colleagues for information and knowledge and must cooperate through the debate process. Taken together, policy debate aids academic achievement, student behavior, critical thinking, and empowers students to view themselves as qualified agents for social change.
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Debate empowers students. Framework is a prerequisite—any alt must go through policy means first if it’s to achieve actual change
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High school students experience unique developmental challenges as they search for their own identities and establish relationships with authority and their peers. In addition to social changes, high school students also actively seek information, challenge systems of power, and negotiate their own world-views amid conflicting messages of childhood and emerging adult expectations. High school debate may heighten this search as students seek to know more about their own political identity through relatively mature exchanges of information. These maturing dialogues do not trade-off with stereotypical teen-aged irresponsible acts of foolishness. From a sociological perspective, Fine (2004) investigated the high school debate community and observed students’ behavior, attitudes, and characteristics. Fine (2004) advances that adolescents are agents of theirown world. They interact with institutions and persons that determine their sense of self and their world-views. What those experiences are that influence that child’s development help determine immediate behavior and long-term identity. Thus, “…adolescents shape their actions in light of how they are viewed and treated by adults and adult institutions, how they are viewed and treated by their peers, and how they desire to view themselves” (Fine, 2004, p. 2). Both mature and childish, high school debaters “…have the power to construct their own lifeworlds, but not always in ways that adults endorse” (Fine, 2004, p.7). Questions of moral and ethical development surround what type of arguments students are exposed to, what type of competition students experience, and overall how coaching can impact a child’s development. Each of these questions raises ethical questions within the debate community.
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Zwarensteyn, Grand Valley State Masters’ student, 12 [Ellen C., 8-1-2012 “High School Policy Debate as an Enduring Pathway to Political Education: Evaluating Possibilities for Political Learning” http://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1034&context=theses accessed: 7/5/13 EYS]
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High school students experience unique developmental challenges as they search for their own identities and establish relationships with authority and their peers. In addition to social changes, high school students also actively seek information, challenge systems of power, and negotiate their own world-views amid conflicting messages of childhood and emerging adult expectations. High school debate may heighten this search as students seek to know more about their own political identity through relatively mature exchanges of information. adolescents are agents of theirown world. They interact with institutions and persons that determine their sense of self and their world-views. What those experiences are that influence that child’s development help determine immediate behavior and long-term identity. Thus, “…adolescents shape their actions in light of how they are viewed and treated by adults and adult institutions, how they are viewed and treated by their peers, and how they desire to view themselves
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Debate is uniquely important for high school students discovering themselves through political engagement
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Other scholars note benefits to debate outside traditional academic achievement or behavioral measures. These studies theorize the importance in face-to-face communication and adversarial dialectics. Galloway, Debate Director at Samford University, studies the benefits to communication through dialogue and the switch-side requirement of policy debate. Galloway (2007) encourages audiences to view debate as a critical dialogue, where every argument is crafted to begin a meaningful, if not strategic, dialogue. The values not only advance intellectual gain, but also to look for argumentative consistency and personal validity.
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Zwarensteyn, Grand Valley State Masters’ student, 12 [Ellen C., 8-1-2012 “High School Policy Debate as an Enduring Pathway to Political Education: Evaluating Possibilities for Political Learning” http://scholarworks.gvsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1034&context=theses accessed: 7/5/13 EYS]
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. Galloway, Debate Director at Samford University, studies the benefits to communication through dialogue and the switch-side requirement of policy debate every argument is crafted to begin a meaningful, if not strategic, dialogue. The values not only advance intellectual gain, but also to look for argumentative consistency and personal validity.
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Debate breaks down the ideological preconceptions of the participants
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The literature on scholar–practitioner interactions in International Relations (IR) is dominated by a sense of chasm. 2 Practitioners generally conceive schol arly outputs as abstract discussions specifically tailored to satisfy the intellectual demands of other scholars rather than responding to the pressing issues policy makers must deal with on a daily basis. Many scholars, in turn, disdain the over simplifications and lack of analytical rigor they often attribute to policy officials. IR is often described as a self-regulated field in which professional success depends almost entirely on one’s reputation among peers. In this field, there is a strong incentive to produce highly specialized and methodologically rigorous research because this type of work, as opposed to teaching or public service, is what a scholar’s career advancement is predicated on. Hence, IR scholars focus on generating novel arguments that will impress other scholars, rather than poli cymakers. Policymakers, on their part, want to know how events occur and pursue knowledge specific to the policy process, that is, about what policy levers to acti vate in order to shape outcomes in the desired direction, as opposed to knowing why events occur and producing general explanations that abstract from the workings of policy processes (George 1993; Kruzel 1994; Lepgold and Nincic 2001; Jentleson 2002; Walt 2005; Nau 2008; Nye 2008a; Krasner 2011).
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Bertucci, Universidad de San Andres, et al 12 (Mariano E., Fabian Borges-Herrero, University of Southern California, Claudia Fuentes-Julio, University of Denver, International Studies Perspectives (2012), 1–19 “Toward “Best Practices” in Scholar–Practitioner Relations: Insights from the Field of Inter-American Affairs”, pg. 2 date accessed 7/12/13 igm)
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The literature on scholar–practitioner interactions in International Relations ) is dominated by a sense of chasm Practitioners generally conceive schol arly outputs as abstract discussions specifically tailored to satisfy the intellectual demands of other scholars rather than responding to the pressing issues policy makers must deal with on a daily basis there is a strong incentive to produce highly specialized and methodologically rigorous research because this type of work, as opposed to teaching or public service, is what a scholar’s career advancement is predicated on.
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K is not a prereq – there is a widening gap between theory and policy, making it impossible to have interrelationship
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The influence of scholarly ideas on policymakers is contingent on factors beyond the control of scholars. These factors are usually related but not limited to the politicized and haphazard nature of public policy decision-making processes.
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Bertucci, Universidad de San Andres, et al 12 (Mariano E., Fabian Borges-Herrero, University of Southern California, Claudia Fuentes-Julio, University of Denver, International Studies Perspectives (2012), 1–19 “Toward “Best Practices” in Scholar–Practitioner Relations: Insights from the Field of Inter-American Affairs”, pg. 9 date accessed 7/12/13 igm)
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The influence of scholarly ideas on policymakers is contingent on factors beyond the control of scholars. These factors are related limited to the politicized and haphazard nature of public policy decision-making processes.
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Critique can’t influence policy – policymakers need empiricism to fill their academic niche, scholars prescriptive ideas are not received in the decision-making process
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Scholarly success in influencing policymaking also depends on the existence of receptive allies within government institutions—what Rafael Fernandez de Castro calls “brokers”—that are willing to advance policy recommendations based on sound scholarly research (Fernandez de Castro 2011:6). However, not all efforts at effectively influencing policy are reducible to nurturing relations with government “brokers”. The United States was well on its way to creating the FTAA when countries like Brazil blocked the path. In this case, the United States let the moment pass, while other Latin American countries, such as Argentina, turned their back to the FTAA as soon as free trade-friendly governments left office, strengthening the position of the already ambiguous Brazilians. Thus, government “brokers” are important, but timing is also a factor that may facilitate or impede the effective influence of scholarly outputs on policy (Feinberg 2011).
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Bertucci, Universidad de San Andres, et al 12 (Mariano E., Fabian Borges-Herrero, University of Southern California, Claudia Fuentes-Julio, University of Denver, International Studies Perspectives (2012), 1–19 “Toward “Best Practices” in Scholar–Practitioner Relations: Insights from the Field of Inter-American Affairs”, pg. 10 date accessed 7/12/13 igm)
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Scholarly success in influencing policymaking also depends on the existence of receptive allies within government institutions that are willing to advance policy recommendations based on sound scholarly research timing is also a factor that may facilitate or impede the effective influence of scholarly outputs on policy
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Criticism can’t influence policy – lack of interior advocates, lack of communication interoperability and timing all trump theory
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Disagreement is, by the terms of my book, a form of respect, not a form of disrespect. And by disagreement, I don't mean simply to say that we should expect disagreement rather than agreement, which is a frequently voiced—if misconceived—criticism of Habermas. Of course we should expect disagreement. My point is that we should focus on the moment of dissatisfaction in the face of disagreement—the internal dynamic in argument that imagines argument might be the beginning of [End Page 281] a process of persuasion and exchange that could end in agreement (or partial agreement). For those who advocate reconciling ourselves to disagreements rather than arguing them out, by contrast, there is a complacent—and in some versions, even celebratory—attitude toward fixed disagreement. Refusing these options, I make the case for dissatisfied disagreement in the final chapter of the book and argue that people should be willing to justify their positions in dialogue with one another, especially if they hope to live together in a post-traditional pluralist society.
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Anderson, prof. John Hokins University, 07 (Amanda, “Reply to my Critic(s)” 2007, http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/criticism/v048/48.2anderson.html, accessed July 5, 2013, QDKM)
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Of course we should expect disagreement. we should focus on the moment of in the face of disagreement—the internal dynamic in argument that imagines argument might be the beginning of a process of persuasion and exchange that could end in agreement For those who advocate reconciling ourselves to disagreements rather than arguing them out, , there is a attitude toward fixed disagreement. Refusing these options, I argue that people should be willing to justify their positions in dialogue with one another especially if they hope to live together in a post-traditional pluralist society.
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If the state is racist as the aff purposes, then there is no way to fix the state but engage with and make it non-racist. Rejecting the state as a whole will solve nothing. We defend the biggest solvency mechanism to solve for the impacts of the 1AC.
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The essays in this book are attempts to draw consequences from a pragmatist theory about truth. This theory says that truth is not the sort of thing one should expect to have a philosophically interesting theory about. For pragmatists, “truth” is just the name of a property which all true statements share. It is what is common to “Bacon did not write Shakespeare,” “It rained yesterday,” “E = mc2” “Love is better than hate,” “The Allegory of Painting was Vermeer’s best work,” “2 plus 2 is 4,” and “There are nondenumerable infinities.” Pragmatists doubt that there is much to be said about this common feature. They doubt this for the same reason they doubt that there is much to be said about the common feature shared by such morally praiseworthy actions as Susan leaving her husband, America joining the war against the Nazis, America pulling out of Vietnam, Socrates not escaping from jail, Roger picking up litter from the trail, and the suicide of the Jews at Masada. They see certain acts as good ones to perform, under the circumstances, but doubt that there is anything general and useful to say about what makes them all good. The assertion of a given sentence – or the adoption of a disposition to assert the sentence, the conscious acquisition of a belief – is a justifiable, praiseworthy act in certain circumstances. But, a fortiori, it is not likely that there is something general and useful to be said about what makes All such actions good-about the common feature of all the sentences which one should acquire a disposition to assert.
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Rorty, philosopher, 82 [Richard, 1982, “Consequences of Pragmatism” http://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/philosophy/works/us/rorty.htm 7/5/13 EYS]
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“truth” is just the name of a property which all true statements share Pragmatists doubt that there is much to be said about this common feature. . They see certain acts as good ones to perform, under the circumstances, but doubt that there is anything general and useful to say about what makes them all good.
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Pragmatism doesn’t focus on the morality of claims, rather it hopes to question norms
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So far, however, my description of pragmatism has left an important distinction out of account. Within Philosophy, there has been a traditional difference of opinion about the Nature of Truth, a battle between (as Plato put it) the gods and the giants. On the one hand there have been Philosophers like Plato himself who were otherworldly, possessed of a larger hope. They urged that human beings were entitled to self-respect only because they had one foot beyond space and time. On the other hand – especially since Galileo showed how spatio-temporal events could be brought under the sort of elegant mathematical law which Plato suspected might hold only for another world – there have been philosophers (e.g., Hobbes, Marx) who insisted that space and time make up the only Reality there is, and that Truth is Correspondence to that Reality. In the nineteenth century, this opposition crystallised into one between “the transcendental philosophy” and “the empirical philosophy,” between the “Platonists” and the “positivists.” Such terms were, even then, hopelessly vague, but every intellectual knew roughly where he stood in relation to the two movements. To be on the transcendental side was to think that natural science was not the last word – that there was more Truth to be found. To be on the empirical side was to think that natural science – facts about how spatio-temporal things worked – was all the Truth there was. To side with Hegel or Green was to think that some normative sentences about rationality and goodness corresponded to something real, but invisible to natural science. To side with Comte or Mach was to think that such sentences either “reduced” to sentences about spatio-temporal events or were not subjects for serious reflection.
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Rorty, philosopher, 82 [Richard, 1982, “Consequences of Pragmatism” http://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/philosophy/works/us/rorty.htm 7/5/13 EYS]
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Within Philosophy, there has been a traditional difference of opinion about the Nature of Truth,
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Pragmatism questions the individual
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The most powerful reason for thinking that no such culture is possible is that seeing all criteria as no more than temporary resting-places, constructed by a community to facilitate its inquiries, seems morally humiliating. Suppose that Socrates was wrong, that we have not once seen the Truth, and so will not, intuitively, recognise it when we see it again. This means that when the secret police come, when the torturers violate the innocent, there is nothing to be said to them of the form “There is something within you which you are betraying. Though you embody the practices of a totalitarian society which will endure forever, there is something beyond those practices which condemns you.” This thought is hard to live with, as is Sartre’s remark:
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Rorty, philosopher, 82 [Richard, 1982, “Consequences of Pragmatism” http://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/philosophy/works/us/rorty.htm 7/5/13 EYS]
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The most powerful reason for thinking that no such culture is possible is that seeing all criteria as no more than temporary resting-places, constructed by a community to facilitate its inquiries, seems morally humiliating. Suppose we have not seen the Truth This means when the torturers violate the innocent, there is nothing to be said to them of the form “There is something within you which you are betraying. Though you embody the practices of a totalitarian society which will endure forever, there is something beyond those practices which condemns you.” Sartre’s remark:
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Only pragmatic philosophy can evade the logical harms of the K and still take action against great atrocities – We’re not committed to their slippery slope link args
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First, Utopian thinking can be useful as a framework for analysis. Just as physicists assume an atmospheric vacuum for some purposes, so policy analysts can assume a political vacuum from which they can start afresh. The physicists’ assumption plainly would not be useful for the design of parachutes, but can serve other purposes well. Similarly, when thinking of tomorrow’s problems, Utopianism is not helpful. But for long-term strategic purposes it is essential. Second, the Utopian vision gives a sense of direction, which can get lost in approaches that are preoccupied with the feasible. In a world that is regarded as the second-best of all feasible worlds, everything becomes a necessary constraint. All vision is lost. Third, excessive concern with the feasible tends to reinforce the status quo. In negotiations, it strengthens the hand of those opposed to any reform. Unless the case for change can be represented in the same detail as the case for no change, it tends to be lost. Fourth, it is sometimes the case that the conjuncture of circumstances changes quite suddenly and that the constellation of forces, unexpectedly, turns out to be favourable to even radical innovation. Unless we are prepared with a carefully worked out, detailed plan, that yesterday could have appeared utterly Utopian, the reformers will lose out by default. Only a few years ago nobody would have expected the end of communism in Central and Eastern Europe, the disappearance of the Soviet Union, the unification of Germany, the break-up of Yugoslavia, the marketization of China, the end of apartheid in South Africa. And the handshake on the White House lawn between Mr Peres and Mr Arafat. Fifth, the Utopian reformers themselves can constitute a pressure group, countervailing the self interested pressures of the obstructionist groups. Ideas thought to be Utopian have become realistic at moments in history when large numbers of people support them, and those in power have to yield to their demands. The demand for ending slavery is a historical example. It is for these five reasons that Utopians should not be discouraged from formulating their proposals and from thinking the unthinkable, unencumbered by the inhibitions and obstacles of political constraints. They should elaborate them in the same detail that the defenders of the status quo devote to its elaboration and celebration. Utopianism and idealism will then turn out to be the most realistic vision. It is well known that there are three types of economists: those who can count and those who can’t. But being able to count up to two, I want to distinguish between two types of people. Let us call them, for want of a better name, the Pedants and the Utopians. The names are due to Peter Berger, who uses them in a different context. The Pedants or technicians are those who know all the details about the way things are and work, and they have acquired an emotional vested interest in keeping them this way. I have come across them in the British civil service, in the bureaucracy ofthe World Bank, and elsewhere. They are admirable people but they are conservative, and no good companions for reform. On the other hand, there are the Utopians, the idealists, the visionaries who dare think the unthinkable. They are also admirable, many of them young people. But they lack the attention to detail that the Pedants have. When the day of the revolution comes, they will have entered it on the wrong date in their diaries and fail to turn up, or, if they do turn up, they will be on the wrong side of the barricades. What we need is a marriage between the Pedants and the Utopians, between the technicians who pay attention to the details and the idealists who have the vision of a better future. There will be tensions in combining the two, but they will be creative tensions. We need Pedantic Utopian Pedants who will work out in considerable detail the ideal world and ways of getting to it, and promote the good cause with informed fantasy. Otherwise, when the opportunity arises, we shall miss it for lack of preparedness and lose out to the opponents of reform, to those who want to preserve the status quo.
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Streeten, BU econ professor, 99 [Paul, 1999, Development, v. 42 n.2 ingenta, JFS]
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Utopian thinking can be useful policy analysts can assume a political vacuum from which they can start afresh. Utopianism for long-term strategic purposes is essential the Utopian vision gives a sense of direction In a world that is regarded as the best of all feasible worlds, everything becomes a constraint excessive concern with the feasible tends to reinforce the status quo. it strengthens the hand of those opposed to reform the Utopian reformers themselves can constitute a pressure group, countervailing the self interested pressures of the obstructionist groups Ideas thought to be Utopian have become realistic at moments in history when large numbers of people support them slavery is a historical example Utopians should not be discouraged from formulating their proposals unencumbered by political constraints. Utopianism will then turn out to be realistic the Utopians think the unthinkable We need Utopian Pedants who will work out in considerable detail the ideal world and ways of getting to it, and promote the good cause with informed fantasy
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Utopianism good – key to change
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A subliminal orientation is attentive to what is bubbling along under the surface. It is mindful of how conscious attempts to understand conceal more than they reveal, and purposeful efforts of progressive change may engender more violence than they erase. For these reasons, Connolly emphasises that ‘ethical artistry’ has an element of naïveté and innocence. One is not quite sure what one is doing. Such naïveté need not lead us back to the idealism of the romantic period. ‘One should not be naïve about naïveté’, Simon Critchley would say.56 Rather, the challenge of change is an experiment. It is not locked up in a predetermined conception of where one is going. It involves tentatively exploring the limits of one’s being in the world, to see if different interpretations are possible, how those interpretations might impact upon the affects below the level of conscious thought, and vice versa. This approach entails drawing upon multiple levels of thinking and being, searching for changes in sensibilities that could give more weight to minor feelings or to arguments that were previously ignored.57 Wonder needs to be at the heart of such experiments, in contrast to the resentment of an intellect angry with its own limitations. The ingredient of wonder is necessary to disrupt and suspend the normal pressures of returning to conscious habit and control. This exploration beyond the conscious implies the need for an ethos of theorising and acting that is quite different from the mode directed towards the cognitive justification of ideas and concepts. Stephen White talks about ‘circuits of reflection, affect and argumentation’.58 Ideas and principles provide an orientation to practice, the implications of that practice feed back into our affective outlook, and processes of argumentation introduce other ideas and affects. The shift, here, is from the ‘vertical’ search for foundations in ‘skyhooks’ above or ‘foundations’ below, to a ‘horizontal’ movement into the unknown.
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Bleiker, professor of International Relations, and Leet, Senior Research Officer with the Brisbane Institute 6 (Roland, and Martin, “From the Sublime to the Subliminal: Fear, Awe and Wonder in International Politics” Millennium: Journal of International Studies, 34(3), pg. 733 igm)
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, the challenge of change is an experiment It is not locked up in a predetermined conception of where one is going. It involves tentatively exploring the limits of one’s being in the world, to see if different interpretations are possible, how those interpretations might impact upon the affects below the level of conscious thought This approach entails drawing upon multiple levels of thinking and being The ingredient of wonder is necessary to disrupt and suspend the normal pressures of returning to conscious habit and control This exploration beyond the conscious implies the need for an ethos of theorising and acting that is quite different from the mode directed towards the cognitive justification of ideas and concepts Ideas and principles provide an orientation to practice the implications of that practice feed back into our affective outlook The shift is from the ‘vertical’ search for foundations in ‘skyhooks’ above or ‘foundations’ below, to a ‘horizontal’ movement into the unknown.
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Innovation is a prerequisite to change – limits on a topic restrict the ability to create new solutions and theories
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Approaching the political - and by extension dilemmas of agency requires tolerance towards various forms of insight and levels of analysis, even if they contradict each other’s internal logic. Such differences often only appear as contradictions because we still strive for a universal standard of reference that is supposed to subsume all the various aspects of life under a single totalizing standpoint (Adorno, 1992, 17–18). Every process of revealing is at the same time a process of concealing. Even the most convincing position cannot provide a form of insight that does not at the same time conceal other perspectives. Revealing always occurs within a frame. Framing is a way of ordering, and ordering banishes all other forms of revealing. This is, grossly simplified, a position that resonates throughout much of Heidegger’s work (1954, 35). Taking this argument to heart is to recognize that one cannot rely on one form of revealing alone. An adequate understanding of human agency can be reached only by moving back and forth between various insights. The point, then, is not to end up with a grand synthesis, but to make most out of each specific form of revealing (for an exploration of this theme, via an analysis of Kant’s Critique of Judgement, see Deleuze, 1994).
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Bleiker, professor of International Relations, 3 (Roland, “Discourse and Human Agency”, Contemopary Political Theory, 2003, 2, Palgrave Macmillan Ltd, pg. 39-40 igm)
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Approaching the political and dilemmas of agency requires tolerance towards various forms of analysis differences often only appear as contradictions because we still strive for a universal standard that is supposed to subsume all the various aspects of life under a single totalizing standpoint Framing is a way of ordering, and ordering banishes all other forms of revealing . An adequate understanding of human agency can be reached only by moving back and forth between various insights The point , is not to end up with a grand synthesis, but to make most out of each specific form of revealing
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Limits constrain possible solutions – politics is best informed by different levels of analysis
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The description of debate as a dialectical method did not mean that the¶ proponents of switch-side debating rejected the importance of conviction for¶ public argument. They did, however, claim that sound conviction, as opposed¶ to dogmatism, was a product of debate, not its prerequisite. Baird (1955),¶ arguing that debate should be understood less as public advocacy and more as a¶ dialectical method of inquiry, claimed that sound conviction was a product of a¶ rigorous analysis of all aspects of a question and that this analysis was best¶ conducted through a method which had students practice defending and¶ rejecting the major arguments on both sides. Thus, debating both sides should¶ be understood as an educational procedure designed to generate ‘sound’¶ convictions prior to public advocacy. Baird urged that the critics of switch-side¶ debating should understand the practice as a pedagogical device and to judge it¶ accordingly. ‘These student exercises’, he told debaters and their coaches, ‘are¶ to be sharply distinguished from the later ‘practical life’ situations in which you¶ are preachers, lawyers, business men and women, politicians and community¶ LOST CONVICTIONS 105leaders. Debate and discussion training is essentially training in reflective¶ thinking, in the defence of different sides (‘role playing’ as some call it), and in¶ the revelation of strength and weakness of each position’ (p. 6). It was Baird’s¶ recognition that debating both sides was equivalent to role-playing that¶ warranted re-thinking the fit between the speaker and the words spoken.¶ Furthermore, if a debater did in fact appear to be shallow, insincere and prone¶ to manipulate public opinion for her or his own ends, this was certainly not,¶ argued Wayne Thompson (1944) and Nicholas Cripe, the fault of switch-side¶ debating, but the ‘result of other causes / weakness in the character of the¶ offender or a misunderstanding of the proper functioning of debate’¶ (Thompson 1944, p. 296). The proper way to deal with any ethical¶ shortcomings in debaters, the proponents argued, was for the national¶ forensics associations to develop a code of ethics that would stress the ethical¶ responsibility of intercollegiate debaters (to present the best possible case¶ according to facts as the debater understood them) and to forcefully condemn¶ individual acts of malfeasance such as misconstruing evidence, falsifying¶ sources, and misrepresenting their opponents’ positions. For Robert Newman¶ (1963), the controversy over debating both sides was simple to resolve: as long¶ as a good case could be made on each side of the resolution and individual¶ debaters did not lie or cheat, there simply was no ethical dilemma and¶ certainly no need for a disciplinary-based ethic to guide debate practice.¶ Finally, debate coaches justified switch-side debate on the pragmatic grounds¶ that it was a necessary component of tournament debating and that abandoning¶ the practice would mean the end of intercollegiate debating. ‘In fact, if the¶ proponents of ethical debate are correct’, Cripe warned, ‘and it is immoral for¶ a team to debate both sides, then many schools would have to discontinue¶ debate as we practice today’ (1957, p. 209).
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Greene, University of Minnesota professor of Communication, and Hicks, University of Denver Associate Professor of communication, 5 (Ronald Walter, Darrin, “Lost Convictions: Debating Both Sides and the¶ Ethical Self Fashioning of Liberal Subjects” http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1007&context=ronaldwaltergreene, pg. 105 date accessed 7/10/13 igm)
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sound conviction was a product of debate, not its prerequisite debate should be understood less as public advocacy and more as a¶ dialectical method of inquiry, claimed that sound conviction was a product of a¶ rigorous analysis of all aspects of a question and that this analysis was best¶ conducted through a method which had students practice defending and¶ rejecting the major arguments on both sides the critics of switch-side¶ debating should understand the practice as a pedagogical device and to judge it¶ accordingly Debate and discussion training is essentially training in reflective¶ thinking, in the defence of different sides and in¶ the revelation of strength and weakness of each position’ if a debater did in fact appear to be shallow, insincere and prone¶ to manipulate public opinion for her or his own ends, this was certainly not the fault of switch-side¶ debating but the ‘result of other causes / weakness in the character of the¶ offender or a misunderstanding of the proper functioning of debate : as long¶ as a good case could be made on each side of the resolution and individual¶ debaters did not lie or cheat, there simply was no ethical dilemma and¶ certainly no need for a disciplinary-based ethic to guide debate practice , debate coaches justified switch-side debate on the pragmatic grounds¶ that it was a necessary component of tournament debating and that abandoning¶ the practice would mean the end of intercollegiate debating
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Switch side doesn’t solve – it misunderstands the purpose of debate
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These arguments are theoretical; they cannot speak as powerfully as the voices of those who have experienced both the oppression of an education system failing from the “unique synergy between lack of funding and anachronistic pedagogical practices.” Ed Lee, who now holds a Master’s degree and works for an Urban Debate League in San Francisco, recounts his experience as an urban debater: Educated in the public school system of inner-city Atlanta, my high school experience was tragically similar to the one depicted above. My savior, like many others, was the Atlanta Urban Debate League. It provided the opportunity to question the nefarious rites of passage (prison, drugs, and drinking) that seem to be uniquely debilitating to individuals in the poor urban communities. In enclaves of poverty, there is also an undercurrent of nihilism and negativity that eats away at the soul of the community. Adults are hopeless. Children follow their lead and become hopeless. The solution is to offer people a choice beyond minimum wage or prison. Urban Debate Leagues provide that. Debating delivers a galaxy of alternatives and opportunity for those who are only offered hopelessness and were unnecessary elements of our culture that existed becaused they (predominantly) go unquestioned. Questioning the very nature of our existence is at the heart of the debate process. I am left wondering what would occur if debate became as compulsory in inner-city educational culture as football and basketball? Imagine graduating from high school each year millions of underprivileged teenagers with the ability to articulate their needs, the needs of others, and the ability to offer solutions. I am convinced that someone would be forced to listen. Urban debate Leagues offers a pedagogical tool that simultaneously opens the mind to alternatives and empowers students to take control of their lives. Half of the time, students are disseminating information and forming arguments about complex philosophical and political issues. In the other half, they answer the arguments of others. Self-reflexivity is an inherent part of the activity. Debating gives students the ability to articulate the partiality of all critical assessments. Contemporary educational techniques teach one side of the issue and universalize it as the only “truth.” Debate forces students to evaluate both sides, and determine their independent contextualized truth. Additionally, unlike the current pedagogy, debate allows everything to be questioned…The ability to question subjectivities presented as the objective truth makes debate uniquely empowering for individuals disenfranchised by the current system. It teaches students to interrogate their own institutionalized neglect and the systemic unhindered oppression of others. It is one of the few venues we are able to question authority. (pp. 95-6) Given the possibilities an urban debate program presents, it is worth examining the practical possibilities for a revitalization of urban debate. One thing is clear: Urban debate is under-utilized at present. Many urban debate programs died in the late sixties and early seventies as the result of massive budget cuts. As tax revenues diminished in educational coffers, debate programs, always treated as just one of the “extracurricular” activities, got lost in efforts to stop the institutional bleeding by “doing more with less.” While college debate is more vibrant, as early as 1975 major college debate organizations were acknowledging the lack of diversity in intercollegiate forensics. Little has changed over the past twenty-five years; minority participation remains exceptionally low at the two major national policy debate tournaments, the Cross Examination Debate Association championship and the National Debate Tournament (Hill, 1997; Stepp, 1997)
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Warner, director of the debate program at the University of Louisville, and Bruschke, professor of Human Communication Studies 3 (Ede, John, “‘GONE ON DEBATING:’ COMPETITIVE ACADEMIC DEBATE AS A TOOL OF EMPOWERMENT FOR URBAN AMERICA”, http://commfaculty.fullerton.edu/jbruschke/Papers/Debate%20as%20a%20Tool%20of%20empowerment.htm, date accessed 7/10/13 igm)
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they cannot speak as powerfully as the voices of those who have experienced both the oppression of an education system failing from the “unique synergy between lack of funding and anachronistic pedagogical practices Urban Debate League provided the opportunity to question the nefarious rites of passage that seem to be uniquely debilitating to individuals in the poor urban communities In enclaves of poverty, there is also an undercurrent of nihilism and negativity that eats away at the soul of the community Debating delivers a galaxy of alternatives and opportunity for those who are only offered hopelessness and were unnecessary elements of our culture that existed becaused they ) go unquestioned U d L s offer pedagogical tool that simultaneously opens the mind to alternatives and empowers students to take control of their lives Contemporary educational techniques teach one side of the issue and universalize it as the only “truth.” Debate forces students to evaluate both sides, and determine their independent contextualized truth. unlike the current pedagogy, debate allows everything to be questioned The ability to question subjectivities presented as the objective truth makes debate uniquely empowering for individuals disenfranchised by the current system
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Debate is critical to positive change – critical examination and freedom of argumentation
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The resurgence of Latin American critical thought in the ¶ late 1990s and the early twenty-first century has brought about some ¶ discoveries that distinguish it from the sociological production of the ¶ world. It is a scientific framework that has taken on the features of a new ¶ social scientific paradigm. A growing number of authors have aligned ¶ themselves with this perspective, with visions that include critical readings geared to contributing to transformative social change, in a Latin ¶ American context. Thus, we ask ourselves: What are the characteristics ¶ that distinguish Latin American critical thought and give it its identity? ¶ What are its germinal features and what are its unresolved matters?
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Bialakowsky, Gino Germani Research Institute et al. 12 (Alberto L. Bialakowsky, Pablo Gentili, Paulo Henrique Martins, Silvia Lago ¶ Martínez, Marcelo Langieri, Carolina Mera, María Victoria Mutti, Alicia I. ¶ Palermo, Lucas Sablich, Federico Schuster, Beatriz Wehle “Latin American Critical Thought¶ Theory and Practice” http://academia.edu/2635972/Latin_American_Critical_Thought._Theory_and_Practice, pg. 10 date accessed 7/10/13 igm)
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The resurgence of Latin American critical thought has brought about some ¶ discoveries that distinguish it from the sociological production of the ¶ world It is a scientific framework that has taken on the features of a new ¶ social scientific paradigm What are the characteristics ¶ that distinguish Latin American critical thought and give it its identity? ¶ What are its germinal features and what are its unresolved matters?
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Topic education: Criticism surrounding the topic is productive – Latin America is a site for differing frameworks of knowledge that should be discussed – key to topic specific education
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This call is not just for an internationalization of views, a way of giving voice to foreign scholars who rarely get read or heard by U.S. humanities specialists, but for the activation of institutional and intellectual grounds for the generation of a new kind of scholarship about the United States.
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Desmond, University of Iowa American studies, and Domínguez, director of the Iowa Center for International and Comparative Studies 96 (Jane C., Virginia R., “Resituating American Studies in a Critical Internationalism” http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/american_quarterly/v048/48.3desmond.html, American Quarterly 48.3 (1996) 475-490, date accessed 7/10/13 igm)
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This call is not just for an internationalization of views but for the activation of institutional and intellectual grounds for the generation of a new kind of scholarship about the United States
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Latin American critical discussion is key to depth on the topic
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This is also a debate on the consensus about social thought, a debate on the intellectual foundation of hegemony. Latin American critical thought is resurfacing after the long period that followed the impasse, or rather the decline, of the ‘Dependency Theory’ of the 1970s ¶ and the emergence of the intellectual and ideological domination of ¶ neoliberalism, its political apparatuses and governmental technologies that prevailed from the 1980s on. This new critical thought has ¶ called into question the hegemonic forms of understanding the capitalist market, the colonization of power and eurocentric assumptions. ¶ it has gained strength in line with the development of democratic political forms. When critical Latin American authors refer to the previous decline in critical scholarship / literature, thought point at the role ¶ of the genocidal dictatorships in the region. They also find parallels ¶ between their own work and social movements, especially the peasant, the indigenous and the urban unemployed movements of the late ¶ twentieth century, as well as the landless workers, the Zapatism and ¶ the piqueteros, and class fractions that do not have a central place in ¶ classical theory. Beyond this consensus, authors seem to differ on the ¶ magnitude of the democratic gains in / for the popular sector and the ¶ restitution of rights as sources of expansion / in an expansive fashion ¶ (1990-2010). There are also disagreements about the ‘populist’ character of these democratic gains when the fragility of the processes of democratization and the close links between these electoral democratic ¶ systems and the transnational capitalist market is considered.
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Bialakowsky, Gino Germani Research Institute et al. 12 (Alberto L. Bialakowsky, Pablo Gentili, Paulo Henrique Martins, Silvia Lago ¶ Martínez, Marcelo Langieri, Carolina Mera, María Victoria Mutti, Alicia I. ¶ Palermo, Lucas Sablich, Federico Schuster, Beatriz Wehle “Latin American Critical Thought¶ Theory and Practice” http://academia.edu/2635972/Latin_American_Critical_Thought._Theory_and_Practice, pg. 10 date accessed 7/10/13 igm)
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This is also a debate on the consensus about social thought, a debate on the intellectual foundation of hegemony Latin American critical thought is resurfacing after the long period that followed the impasse This new critical thought has ¶ called into question the hegemonic forms of understanding the capitalist market, the colonization of power and eurocentric assumptions When critical Latin American authors refer to the previous decline in critical scholarship / literature, thought point at the role ¶ of the genocidal dictatorships in the region the Zapatism and ¶ the piqueteros, and class fractions that do not have a central place in ¶ classical theory There are also disagreements about the ‘populist’ character of these democratic gains when the fragility of the processes of democratization and the close links between these electoral democratic ¶ systems and the transnational capitalist market is considered.
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Critiquing US influence is specifically key to education about the topic – ‘Latin America’ was built on a system of imperial dominance that should be questioned
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Misunderstandings continue to exist between cultures. Across space, continued social inequalities involving unequal power relations create lack of understanding between cultures; this has led to oppression, dominance, and even death. Education, especially arts education, may be one means of helping build cultural bridges. Thus, this study examined three college teachers' efforts to use the arts to promote cross-cultural understanding in the United States. The teachers were known for using non-Western or multicultural arts in their teaching. The attempt of the researcher was to understand the possibilities of promoting cross-cultural understanding through use of the arts in education. The inquiry method involved critical qualitative research. The data were examined through the lens of Maxine Greene's "The Dialectic of Freedom." From Greene's point of view, education itself is a dialectical process that can be realized, in part, through a relational use of the arts. Collectively, the findings suggest that these teachers promoted cross-cultural understanding by providing pedagogical spaces conducive to recursive discussion of personal and collective experiences related to stereotypes and the affirmation of diversity. Implications and applications were discussed for use of the arts in education in general.
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Nkurumeh, Middle Tennessee professor of the Arts, 12 (Bartholomew, “Teaching for cross-cultural understanding: A critical study of the classroom efforts of three US arts educators” http://udini.proquest.com/view/teaching-for-cross-cultural-goid:610189122/, date accessed 7/10/13 igm)
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Misunderstandings continue to exist between cultures. continued social inequalities involving unequal power relations create lack of understanding between cultures; this has led to oppression, dominance, and even death. Education may be one means of helping build cultural bridges. education itself is a dialectical process that can be realized through a relational use of the arts. the findings suggest that these teachers promoted cross-cultural understanding by providing pedagogical spaces conducive to recursive discussion of personal and collective experiences related to stereotypes and the affirmation of diversity.
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Cross cultural education is key to effective solve oppression
| 1,323 | 62 | 623 | 187 | 9 | 85 | 0.048128 | 0.454545 |
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The first dimension concerns the relationship between positivist IR¶ theory and postmodernist IR ‘theory’ (and the examples illustrate the claims concerning pluralism and factionalism made in the introduction to this¶ section). It is exhibited when we read Walt warning of the danger of postmodernism as a kind of theoretical decadence since ‘issues of peace and war are too important for the field [of IR] to be diverted into a prolix¶ and self-indulgent discourse that is divorced from the real world’,12 or¶ find Keohane asserting sniffily that:
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Owen, Reader in Political Theory at the University of Southampton, 2 (David, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3, http://mil.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/31/3/653, pg. 659 date accessed 7/10/13 igm)
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issues of peace and war are too important for the field [of IR] to be diverted into a prolix¶ and self-indulgent discourse that is divorced from the real world’
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Questioning knowledge production is prerequisite to policy action – refusal to engage in criticism leads to ineffective policies and education
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The point of these remarks is to call critically into question the background¶ picture (or, to use another term of art, the horizon) against which the disciplinary discourse and practices of IR are conducted in order to make¶ this background itself an object of reflection and evaluation. In a similar vein, Rob Walker argues:
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Owen, Reader in Political Theory at the University of Southampton, 2 (David, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3, http://mil.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/31/3/653, pg. 660 date accessed 7/10/13 igm)
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The point of these remarks is to call critically into question the background¶ picture against which the disciplinary discourse are conducted in order to make¶ this background itself an object of reflection and evaluation
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Epistemic structures reinforce unethical policies – criticism is key to effective decision-making
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The third dimension concerns the relationship between positivist IR¶ theory and critical IR theory, where White’s distinction enables us to make¶ sense of a related confusion, namely, the confusion between holding that¶ forms of positivist IR theory (e.g., neorealism and neoliberal¶ institutionalism) are necessarily either value-free or evaluative. It does so because we can now see that, although forms of positivist IR theory are not normative theories, they presuppose a background picture which¶ orients our thinking through the framing of not only what can be intelligibly up for grabs as true-or-false (the epistemic framing) but also what can be¶ intelligibly up for grabs as good-or-bad (the ethical framing). As Charles Taylor has argued, a condition of our intelligibility as agents is that we¶ inhabit a moral framework which orients us in ethical space and our practices of epistemic theorising cannot be intelligibly conceived as existing¶ independently of this orientation in thinking.21 The confusion in IR theory¶ arises because, on the one hand, positivist IR theory typically suppresses acknowledgement of its own ethical presuppositions under the influence of the scientific model (e.g., Waltz’s neorealism and Keohane’s neoliberal¶ institutionalism), while, on the other hand, its (radical) critics typically view its ethical characteristics as indicating that there is an evaluative or normative theory hidden, as it were, within the folds of what presents¶ itself as a value-free account. Consequently, both regard the other as, in¶ some sense, producing ideological forms of knowledge; the positivist’s claim is that critical IR theory is ideological by virtue of its explicitly normative character, the critical theorist’s claim is that positivist IR theory¶ is ideological by virtue of its failure to acknowledge and reflect on its own¶ implicit normative commitments. But this mutual disdain is also a product of the confusion of pictures and theories. Firstly, there is a confusion between pictures and theories combined with the scientistic suppression¶ of the ethical presuppositions of IR theory. This finds expression in the¶ thought that we need to get our epistemic account of the world sorted out before we can engage responsibly in ethical judgement about what to do, where such epistemic adequacy requires the construction of a positive¶ theory that can explain the features of the world at issue. An example of¶ this position is provided by Waltz’s neorealism.22 Against this first position, we may reasonably point out that epistemic adequacy cannot be intelligibly¶ specified independently of background ethical commitments concerning what matters to us and how it matters to us.
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Owen, Reader in Political Theory at the University of Southampton, 2 (David, Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3, http://mil.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/31/3/653, pg. 663 date accessed 7/10/13 igm)
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forms of positivist IR theory are necessarily either value-free or evaluative positivist IR theory presuppose a background picture which¶ orients our thinking through the framing of not only what can be intelligibly up for grabs as true-or-false but also what can be¶ intelligibly up for grabs as good-or-bad The confusion in IR theory¶ arises because positivist theory suppresses acknowledgement of its own ethical presuppositions under the influence of the scientific model its ethical characteristics indicat that there is an evaluative or normative theory hidden within the folds of what presents¶ itself as a value-free account there is a confusion between pictures and theories combined with the scientistic suppression¶ of the ethical presuppositions of IR theory
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Epistemological debate is necessary to test policy
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International Relations is a discipline concerned with observing how the political¶ project of living-out the modern emerged, and how it continues to operate globally.¶ I am concerned with how we might out-live the modern politically. I think of¶ outliving here as surpassing the modern political imagination, not merely surviving¶ its dereliction.¶
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Dillon, professor Politics and International Relations at the University of Lancaster, 3 (Michael, pg. 1 “Politics of Security: Towards a Political Philosophy of Continental Thought” Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2003, igm)
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International Relations is a discipline concerned with observing how the political¶ project of living-out the modern emerged I think of¶ outliving here as surpassing the modern political imagination, not merely surviving¶ its dereliction
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Ontology precedes policymaking – questions of being and understanding define the limits and conditions of politics
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As Heidegger-himself an especially revealing figure of the deep and mutual implication of the philosophical and the political-never tired of pointing out, the relevance of ontology to all other kinds of thinking is fundamental and inescapable. For one cannot say anything about that is, without always already having made assumptions about the is as such. Any mode of thought, in short, always already carries an ontology sequestered within it. What this ontological turn does to other-regional-modes of thought is to challenge the ontology within which they operate. The implications of that review reverberate through the entire mode of thought, demanding a reappraisal as fundamental as the reappraisal ontology has demanded of philosophy. With ontology at issue, the entire foundations or underpinnings of any mode of thought are rendered problematic. This applies as much to any modern discipline of thought as it does to the question of modernity as such, with the exception, it seems, of science, which, having long ago given up the ontological questioning of when it called itself natural philosophy, appears now, in its industrialized and corporatized form, to be invulnerable to ontological perturbation. With its foundations at issue, the very authority of a mode of thought and the ways in which it characterizes the critical issues of freedom and judgment (of what kind of universe human beings inhabit, how they inhabit it, and what counts as reliable knowledge for them in it) is also put in question. The very ways in which Nietzsche, Heidegger, and other continental philosophers challenged Western ontology, simultaneously, therefore reposed the fundamental and inescapable difficulty, or aporia, for human being of decision and judgment. In other words, whatever ontology you subscribe to, knowingly or unknowingly, as a human being you still have to act. Whether or not you know or acknowledge it, the ontology you subscribe to will construe the problem of action for you in one way rather than another. You may think ontology is some arcane question of philosophy, but Nietzsche and Heidegger showed that it intimately shapes not only a way of thinking, but a way of being, a form of life. Decision, a fortiori political decision, in short, is no mere technique. It is instead a way of being that bears an understanding of Being, and of the fundaments of the human way of being within it. This applies, indeed applies most, to those mock-innocent political slaves who claim only to be technocrats of decision making. While Certain continental thinkers like Blumenberg and Lowith, for example, were prompted to interrogate or challenge the modern’s claim to being distinctively “modern,” and others such as Adorno questioned its enlightened credentials, philosophers like Derrida and Levinas pursued the metaphysical implications (or rather the implications for metaphysics) of the thinking initiated by Kierkegaard, as well as by Nietzsche and Heidegger. The violence of metaphysics, together with another way of thinking about the question of the ethical, emerged as the defining theme of their work. Other, notably Foucault, Deleuze, Lyotard, Baudrillard, and Bataille turned the thinking of Nietzsche and Heidegger into a novel kind of social and political critique of both the regimes and the effects of power that have come to distinguish late modern times; they concentrated, in detail, upon how the violence identified by these other thinkers manifested itself not only in the mundane practices of modern life, but also in those areas that claimed to be most free of it, especially the freedom and security of the subject as well as its allied will to truth and knowledge. Questioning the appeal to the secure self-grounding common to both its epistemic structures and its political imagination, and in the course of reinterrogating both the political character of the modern and the modern character of the political, this problematization of modernity has begun to prompt an ontopolitcally driven reappraisal of modern political thought.
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Cambell, Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, and Shapiro, Professor of Political Science at the University of Hawaiʻi, 99 (David, Michael J., pg. 96, “Moral Spaces: Rethinking Ethics and World Politics” University of Minnesota Press, igm)
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the relevance of ontology to all other kinds of thinking is fundamental and inescapable one cannot say anything about that is without always already having made assumptions about the is as such With ontology at issue the entire foundations or underpinnings of any mode of thought are rendered problematic. This applies as much to any modern discipline of thought as it does to the question of modernity as such the very authority of a mode of thought and the ways in which it characterizes the critical issues of freedom and judgment is also put in question the ontology you subscribe to will construe the problem of action for you in one way rather than anothe You may think ontology is some arcane question of philosophy but it intimately shapes not only a way of thinking but a way of being, a form of life. Decision is no mere technique this problematization of modernity has begun to prompt an ontopolitcally driven reappraisal of modern political thought
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Ontology informs action – determining the implications of a policy start with questions of ontology
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To expand the scope of international theory and to bring transversal struggles into focus is not to declare the state obsolete. States remain central actors in international politics and they have to be recognised and theorised as such. In fact, my analysis will examine various ways in which states and the boundaries between them have mediated the formation, functioning and impact of dissent. However, my reading of dissent and agency makes the state neither its main focus nor its starting point. There are compelling reasons for such a strategy, and they go beyond a mere recognition that a state-centric approach to international theory engenders a form of representation that privileges the authority of the state and thus precludes an adequate understand¬ing of the radical transformations that are currently unfolding in global life. Michael Shapiro is among an increasing number of theor¬ists who convincingly portray the state not only as an institution, but also, and primarily, as a set of 'stories' — of which the state-centric approach to international theory is a perfect example. It is part of a legitimisation process that highlights, promotes and naturalises cer¬tain political practices and the territorial context within which they take place. Taken together, these stories provide the state with a sense of identity, coherence and unity. They create boundaries between an inside and an outside, between a people and its others. Shapiro stresses that such state-stories also exclude, for they seek 'to repress or delegitimise other stories and the practices of identity and space they reflect.' And it is these processes of exclusion that impose a cer¬tain political order and provide the state with a legitimate rationale for violent encounters.22
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Bleiker, professor of International Relations, 2k (Roland, “Popular Dissent, Human Agency and Global Politics” pg. 8, Cambridge University Press, igm)
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my reading of dissent and agency makes the state neither its main focus nor its starting point. reasons for such a strategy go beyond a recognition that a state-centric approach to international theory engenders a form of representation that privileges the authority of the state and thus precludes an adequate understand¬ing of the radical transformations that are currently unfolding in global life It is part of a legitimisation process that highlights, promotes and naturalises cer¬tain political practices and the territorial context within which they take place. state-stories also seek 'to repress or delegitimise other stories and the practices of identity and space they reflect.' And it is these processes of exclusion that impose a cer¬tain political order and provide the state with a legitimate rationale for violent encounters
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State focused debates preclude discussions of individual action – kills effectiveness and agency
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In making a case for the exilic orientation, it is the powerful hold of the nation-state upon intellectual thinking that Said most bemoans. 31 The nation-state of course has a particular pride of place in the study of global politics. The state-centricity of International Relations has not just circumscribed the ability of scholars to understand a vast ensemble of globally oriented movements, exchanges and practices not reducible to the state, but also inhibited a critical intellectual orientation to the world outside the national borders within which scholarship is produced. Said acknowledges the fact that all intellectual work occurs in a (national) context which imposes upon one’s intellect certain linguistic boundaries, particular (nationally framed) issues and, most invidiously, certain domestic political constraints and pressures, but he cautions against the dangers of such restrictions upon the intellectual imagination. 32 Comparing the development of IR in two different national contexts – the French and the German ones – Gerard Holden has argued that different intellectual influences, different historical resonances of different issues, different domestic exigencies shape the discipline in different contexts. 33 While this is to be expected to an extent, there is good reason to be cautious about how scholarly sympathies are expressed and circumscribed when the reach of one’s work (issues covered, people affected) so obviously extends beyond the national context. For scholars of the global, the (often unconscious) hold of the nation-state can be especially pernicious in the ways that it limits the scope and range of the intellectual imagination. Said argues that the hold of the nation is such that even intellectuals progressive on domestic issues become collaborators of empire when it comes to state actions abroad. 34 Specifically, he critiques nationalistically based systems of education and the tendency in much of political commentary to frame analysis in terms of ‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’ - particularly evident in coverage of the war on terrorism - which automatically sets up a series of (often hostile) oppositions to ‘others’. He points in this context to the rather common intellectual tendency to be alert to the abuses of others while remaining blind to those of one’s own. 35
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Biswas, Associate Professor of Politics, 7 (Shampa “Empire and Global Public Intellectuals: Reading Edward Said as International Relations Theorist” Millennium - Journal of International Studies http://mil.sagepub.com/content/36/1/117.short, pg. 125, date accessed 7/10/13 igm)
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The state-centricity of International Relations has not just circumscribed the ability of scholars to understand a vast ensemble of globally oriented movements but also inhibited a critical intellectual orientation to the world outside the national borders within which scholarship is produced different intellectual influences shape the discipline in different contexts there is good reason to be cautious about how scholarly sympathies are expressed and circumscribed when the reach of one’s work so obviously extends beyond the national context the hold of the nation-state can be especially pernicious in the ways that it limits the scope and range of the intellectual imagination. he critiques nationalistically based systems of education and the tendency in much of political commentary to frame analysis in terms of ‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’ - particularly evident in coverage of the war on terrorism - which automatically sets up a series of (often hostile) oppositions to ‘others’. He points in this context to the rather common intellectual tendency to be alert to the abuses of others while remaining blind to those of one’s own.
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State focus kills critical education – testing all parts of an action is key to international scholarship. This is a portable impact
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The space for a critical appraisal of the motivations and conduct of this ¶ war has been considerably diminished by the expertise-framed national ¶ debate wherein certain kinds of ethical questions irreducible to formulaic ¶ ‘for or against’ and ‘costs and benefits’ analysis can simply not be raised. ¶ In effect, what Said argues for, and IR scholars need to pay particular ¶ heed to, is an understanding of ‘intellectual relevance’ that is larger and ¶ more worthwhile, that is about the posing of critical, historical, ethical and ¶ perhaps unanswerable questions rather than the offering of recipes and ¶ solutions, that is about politics (rather than techno-expertise) in the most ¶ fundamental and important senses of the vocation.21
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Biswas, Associate Professor of Politics, 7 (Shampa “Empire and Global Public Intellectuals: Reading Edward Said as International Relations Theorist” Millennium - Journal of International Studies http://mil.sagepub.com/content/36/1/117.short, pg. 123, date accessed 7/10/13 igm)
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The space for a critical appraisal has been considerably diminished by the expertise-framed national ¶ debate wherein certain kinds of ethical questions irreducible to formulaic ¶ ‘for or against’ and ‘costs and benefits’ can simply not be raised IR scholars need to pay particular ¶ heed to is an understanding of ‘intellectual relevance’ that is about the posing of critical, historical, ethical and ¶ perhaps unanswerable questions rather than the offering of recipes and ¶ solutions
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Critical discussion is crowded out by state focus – kills education
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In the process of explaining their teaching approach, argumentation scholars sometimes invoke a bifurcation that separates academic study of argumentation from applied practice in public argument. This explanation typically begins with an elucidation of the democratic and emancipatory potential of debate as a process of decisionmaking, and then proceeds to an explanation of academic study as an essential preparatory step on the way to achievement of such emancipatory potential. This route of explanation is consistent with the American Forensic Association Credo, which declares that the purpose of forensic education is to "prepare students through classrooms, forums, and competition for participation in their world through the power of expression" (qtd. in Freeley 1996, p. 122). Writing from this posture to defend the value of National Debate Tournament (NDT) policy competition, Edward Panetta posits that NDT debate "will prepare students to be societal leaders ..." (1990, p. 76, emphasis added). Similarly, Austin Freeley suggests that academic debate "provides preparation for effective participation in a democratic society" and "offers preparation for leadership" (1997, p. 21, emphasis added). What are the entailments of such a preparatory framework for argumentation pedagogy, and how do such entailments manifest themselves in teaching practice? On the surface, the rhetoric of preparation seems innocuous and consistent with other unremarkable idioms employed to describe education (college prep courses and prep school spring to mind). However, by framing argumentation pedagogy as preparation for student empowerment, educators may actually constrain the emancipatory potential of the debate enterprise. In this vein, approaches that are purely oriented toward preparation place students and teachers squarely in the proverbial pedagogical bullpen, a peripheral space marked off from the field of social action. In what follows, I pursue this tentative hypothesis by interrogating the framework of preparatory pedagogy on three levels, considering how it can position sites of academic inquiry vis-a-vis broader public spheres of deliberation, how it can flatten and defer consideration of complex issues of argumentative engagement and how it can invite unwitting co-option of argumentative skills.
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Mitchell, Associate Professor of Communication and 98 (Gordon R., Director of the William Pitt Debating Union at the University of Pittsburgh, “Pedagogical possibilities for argumentative agency in academic debate” Argumentation and Advocacy, Volume 35, Issue 2 Fall 1998 http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb6699/is_2_35/ai_n28720712/)
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argumentation scholars invoke a bifurcation that separates academic study of argumentation from applied practice in public argument. This explanation proceeds to an explanation of academic study as an essential preparatory consistent with the American Forensic Association Credo, which declares forensic education is to "prepare students through classrooms, forums, and competition for participation in their world through the power of expression" Panetta posits that NDT debate "will prepare students to be societal leaders ..." Freeley suggests that academic debate "provides preparation for effective participation in a democratic society" and "offers preparation for leadership" by framing argumentation pedagogy as preparation for empowerment, educators constrain the emancipatory potential of the debate enterprise approaches that are purely oriented toward preparation place students in a peripheral space marked off from the field of social action. the framework of preparatory pedagogy it can flatten and defer consideration of complex issues and can invite unwitting co-option of argumentative skills.
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Roleplaying bad – forcing state representation kills agency in debate
| 2,326 | 69 | 1,114 | 332 | 10 | 152 | 0.03012 | 0.457831 |
Framework - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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Kritik Answers
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2013
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2,159 |
Questions of agency have been discussed extensively in international theory, mostly in the context of the so-called structure—agency debate. Although strongly wedded to a state-centric view, this debate nevertheless evokes a number of important conceptual issues that are relevant as well to an understanding of transversal dynamics. The roots of the structure—agency debate can be traced back to a feeling of discontent about how traditional approaches to international theory have dealt with issues of agency. Sketched in an overly broad manner, the point of departure looked as follows: At one end of the spectrum were neorealists, who explain state identity and behaviour through a series of structural restraints that are said to emanate from the anarchical nature of the international system. At the other end we find neoliberals, who accept the existence of anarchy but seek to understand the behaviour of states and other international actors in terms of their individual attributes and their ability to engage in cooperative bargaining. If pushed to their logical end-point, the two positions amount, respectively, to a structural determinism and an equally farfetched belief in the autonomy of rational actors. 24 The structure—agency debate is located somewhere between these two poles. Neither structure nor agency receive analytical priority. Instead, the idea is to understand the interdependent and mutually constitutive relationship between them. The discussions that have evolved in the wake of this assumption are highly complex and cannot possibly be summarised here. 25 Some of the key premises, though, can be recognised by observing how the work of Anthony Giddens has shaped the structure—agency debate in international relations. Giddens speaks of the 'duality of structure,' of structural properties that are constraining as well as enabling. They are both 'the medium and outcome of the contingently accomplished activities of situated actors'. 26 Expressed in other words, neither agents nor structures have the final word. Human actions are always embedded in and constrained by the structural context within which they form and evolve. But structures are not immutable either. A human being, Giddens stresses, will 'know a great deal about the conditions of reproduction of the society of which he or she is a member'. 27 The actions that emerge from this awareness then shape the processes through which social systems are structurally maintained and reproduced.
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Bleiker, professor of International Relations, 2k (Roland, “Popular Dissent, Human Agency and Global Politics” pg. 9, Cambridge University Press, igm)
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Questions of agency have been discussed extensively in international theory agency debate can be traced back to a feeling of discontent about how traditional approaches to international theory have dealt with issues of agency : At one end of the spectrum were neorealists, who explain state identity and behaviour through a series of structural restraints that are said to emanate from the anarchical nature of the international system. the position amount to a structural determinism and an equally farfetched belief in the autonomy of rational actors They are both 'the medium and outcome of the contingently accomplished activities of situated actors'. neither agents nor structures have the final word Human actions are always embedded in and constrained by the structural context within which they form and evolve The actions that emerge from this awareness then shape the processes through which social systems are structurally maintained and reproduced.
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We’ll impact turn roleplaying - State focus denies agency – neorealist frameworks eliminate the possibility of localized political changes
| 2,492 | 138 | 960 | 380 | 19 | 147 | 0.05 | 0.386842 |
Framework - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
|
Kritik Answers
|
2013
|
2,160 |
Those academics who do get involved in talking truth to power must accept that in so doing they must adopt the agenda of those to whom they are talking. They will be involved in problem-solving, and thereby must accept the 'givens' of the policy debate. Policy-makers see certain things as givens; therefore if you write about them in order to influence the policy debate, you tend to have to write as if they are given as well. For academics such 'givens' are rarely seen as such. This has extremely important political and intellectual consequences since it questions the very notion of talking 'truth' to power. It is more a case of accepting the policy agenda of those to whom one is talking and then giving them a series of alternative ways of proceeding. I see no connection between this and speaking 'truth to power'. I can also admit the tendency to make what one says acceptable to those 'listening', so as to ensure that one is indeed 'listened to'. But more importantly, why should academics take the policy agenda of governments as the starting point? Why do we privilege that starting point rather than the needs and wants of the have-nots in our society or in the global political system? Indeed, maybe speaking 'truth to power' is itself a very political act, albeit in the name of academic neutrality, an act that supports the existing division of resources in the world. This situation is made all the worse once the possibility arises of getting funding from policy-making bodies, however much the individual academic wants to maintain the independence of his or her research. In my view, academics need a critical distance from which to look at the activities of governments. Perhaps the greatest form of isolation and self-righteousness is to accept the policy-makers' view of the world as the starting point, so that the academic sees the world as the policy-maker sees it. Where would questions of gender, famine, and racism fit into that world-view? Yet aren't these every bit as 'political' and 'international' as the traditional agenda? This seems to me to take us very far indeed from the idea of 'speaking truth to power'; the danger must be of telling the powerful what they want to hear and of working within their world-view. Of course, academics spend much time trying to avoid these dangers, and Wallace himself cannot be accused of simply adopting the agenda of the powerful, but surely he would admit that these dangers are profound and very difficult to avoid, especially if one wants to have influence and prestige within the policy-making community. My objection is really to those who pretend that any of this has anything to do with truth and academic objectivity.
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Smith, Professor and Pro-Vice Chancellor of the University of Wales, 97 (Steve, University of Wales, Aberystwyth “Power and Truth, A Reply to William Wallace,” Review of International Studies, Vol. 23, No. 4 (Oct., 1997), p. 513)
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Policy-makers see certain things as givens; therefore if you write about them in order to influence the policy debate, you tend to have to write as if they are given as well. This has extremely important political and intellectual consequences since it questions the very notion of talking 'truth' to power. why should academics take the policy agenda of governments as the starting point? Why do we privilege that starting point rather than the needs and wants of the have-nots in our society or in the global political system? speaking 'truth to power' is itself a very political act that supports the existing division of resources in the world. This situation is made all the worse once the possibility arises of getting funding from policy-making bodies academics need a critical distance from which to look at the activities of governments. the greatest form of isolation and self-righteousness is to accept the policy-makers' view of the world as the starting point, so that the academic sees the world as the policy-maker sees it. Where would questions of gender, famine, and racism fit into that world-view? the danger must be of telling the powerful what they want to hear and of working within their world-view. My objection is to those who pretend that any of this has anything to do with truth and academic objectivity.
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Roleplaying is bad – using the state as the starting point for discussion justifies bad policies and violence
| 2,704 | 109 | 1,333 | 459 | 18 | 223 | 0.039216 | 0.485839 |
Framework - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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Kritik Answers
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2013
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2,161 |
Cash in advance. In February 2005, the Treasury Department issued a rule that defined ¶ “cash-in-advance” payment terms, as required by TSREEA, to mean cash payment had to ¶ be received in the seller’s account before the goods departed a U.S. port.9¶ (TSREEA did not ¶ explicitly define the term “cash-in-advance.”) Lawmakers and agricultural groups opposed ¶ to the rule reasoned that such an interpretation would tie up the buyer’s funds for longer ¶ and increase banking transactions, making U.S. products less competitive. Moreover, they ¶ argued, if Cuba paid for the goods while still in a U.S. port, the goods could be considered ¶ Cuban assets in U.S. jurisdiction subject to possible seizure against unrelated claims against ¶ the Cuban government. For this reason, Cuban buyers have refused to buy U.S. goods on ¶ those terms.10¶ The American Law Division of the Congressional Research Service (CRS) studied the ¶ cash payment issue and concluded, “[I]t would appear difficult to find legal support for ¶ OFAC’s [Office of Foreign Assets Control] interpretation that ‘payment of cash in advance’ ¶ requires payment be received prior to shipment.” CRS reasoned that, “it appears customary ¶ within the international trade and finance community to place the emphasis on the legal ¶ transfer of control, rather than on the date of shipment…OFAC’s interpretation appears ¶ to limit the available payment options to those that are considered risky, undesirable, and ¶ underutilized….”11¶ Since that time, no more cash-basis sales have been transacted and overall agricultural exports ¶ to the island decreased by nearly 15% over the next two years. According to an investigation ¶ by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), “There is a consensus among ¶ exporters and industry officials that eliminating cash-against-documents transactions as an ¶ eligible method of payment has had a substantial negative effect on the sale of agricultural ¶ products to Cuba.”12
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Anya Landau French April 2009 Options for ¶ Engagement¶ A Resource Guide ¶ for Reforming U.S. ¶ Policy toward Cuba http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Cuba/USPolicy/options-for-engagement.pdf
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In February 2005, the Treasury Department issued a rule that defined ¶ “cash-in-advance” payment terms, as required by TSREEA, to mean cash payment had to ¶ be received in the seller’s account before the goods departed a U.S. port Cuban buyers have refused to buy U.S. goods on ¶ those terms Since that time, no more cash-basis sales have been transacted and overall agricultural exports ¶ to the island decreased by nearly 15% over the next two years. There is a consensus among ¶ exporters and industry officials that eliminating cash-against-documents transactions as an ¶ eligible method of payment has had a substantial negative effect on the sale of agricultural ¶ products to Cuba.”
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Agricultural sales restrictions, including the Cash in Advance restriction, have had a substantial negative effect on the sale of agricultural products to Cuba.
| 1,977 | 160 | 689 | 312 | 23 | 114 | 0.073718 | 0.365385 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
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Missouri State (MSDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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2,162 |
The Labor Department announced the economy added 175,000 jobs in May, but that is hardly the 360,000 thousand jobs needed each month to bring unemployment down to 6 percent over the next three years.¶ The jobless rate remained steady rose to 7.6 percent.¶ Adding in discouraged adults and part-timers who want full-time jobs, the unemployment rate becomes 13.8 percent. And, for many years, inflation-adjusted wages have been falling and income inequality rising—this remains a buyers market.¶ Sluggish growth is one culprit—the Bush expansion delivered only 2.1 percent annual GDP growth—that’s about the same as the Obama recovery after 45 months.¶ Now, defense cutbacks negotiated with Congress during President Obama’s first term have subtracted some $62 billion from federal spending since last fall, and an additional $200 billion in higher taxes and sequestration spending cuts are further reducing consumer outlays and government spending in the second and third quarters of this year.¶ With all this fiscal drag, economists expect growth to slow to less than 2 percent in the second quarter, and jobs creation is likely to slow through the spring and summer. With southern Europe’s depression dampening continental demand for goods made in Germany and other northern states, the prospects for U.S. exports and cut-priced competition from Europe in U.S. markets is heating up—growth and jobs creation could stay depressed for a long time.¶ Similarly, the Japanese prime minister’s much-heralded stimulus and reforms appears to come down to debasing its currency to jack up exports to North America, and very little else—labor market reforms have been shelved, and no sign of easing immigration policy or new incentives for family formation to counter its declining population—that spells yet more cut rate competition for U.S. manufacturers.¶ It is hard to imagine the Federal Reserve could do more to support growth. Already, it is buying virtually all the new mortgage back securities and 70 percent of the new federal debt issued each month. This is keeping interest rates low and boosting new home construction, but new home construction is less than 3 percent of the economy and cannot carry the recovery. And low rates penalize the elderly who rely on CDs and fixed-income investments, reducing their spending on goods and services. Many cash strapped elderly have returned to work, often taking jobs from younger workers.¶ Stronger growth would help and is possible. Forty-five months into the Reagan recovery, GDP was advancing at a 5 percent annual pace—nowadays, that pace would bring unemployment down to 5 percent pretty quickly.
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business,, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. June 12 2013 Morici: Economy adds 175,000 jobs but trouble aheadhttp://www.statesmanjournal.com/article/20130613/OPINION/306130031/Morici-Economy-adds-175-000-jobs-trouble-ahead
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The Labor Department announced the economy added 175,000 jobs in May, but that is hardly the 360,000 thousand jobs needed each month to bring unemployment down to 6 percent over the next three years. The jobless rate remained steady rose to 7.6 percent.¶ Adding in discouraged adults and part-timers who want full-time jobs, the unemployment rate becomes 13.8 percent .¶ Sluggish growth is one culprit With all this fiscal drag, economists expect growth to slow to less than 2 percent in the second quarter, and jobs creation is likely to slow through the spring and summer growth and jobs creation could stay depressed for a long time.¶ Forty-five months into the Reagan recovery, GDP was advancing at a 5 percent annual pace—nowadays, that pace would bring unemployment down to 5 percent pretty quickly.
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Sluggish economic growth and lack of jobs and growth is dooming potential of economic recovery – must act.
| 2,649 | 106 | 805 | 415 | 18 | 133 | 0.043373 | 0.320482 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
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Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,163 |
Reducing the cost and time necessary to process payment for U.S. exports to Cuba ¶ would have major economic impacts in terms of increased exports and economic activity. U.S. exports to Cuba would be expected to rise by $271.2 million/year, requiring an additional $561.9 million in business activity for a total economic impact of ¶ $833.1 million and supporting 4,478 new jobs (table 2). ¶ Processed and other food products sectors are estimated to require $246.6 million ¶ in business activity and 1,228 new jobs to support additional exports to Cuba. Grain ¶ sectors, mainly corn, rice and wheat, would require $87 million in additional business activity and 767 new jobs. Dairy products would require $40.3 million in additional business activity, followed by poultry products ($30.9 million), forestry products ($23.2 million), beef, pork and edible offal ($20 million), seafood ($12.1 million), ¶ soybean meal and oil ($12.2 million), and animal feeds ($9.9 million). There would ¶ be 1,138 new jobs required to produce and market these additional exports to Cuba. ¶ Most of these jobs would be concentrated in the grains sector (767), poultry (141) ¶ and forestry (97). ¶ Important economic impacts would occur among the non-export sectors as well. ¶ In fact, about 42 percent of the business activity and 47 percent of the jobs are associated with non-export sector production. Other agriculture business activity is estimated to be $72 million, followed by petroleum at $34.6 million, business services ¶ ($32.2 million), real estate ($30 million), food, drink and retail ($23.8 million), finance ($22.9 million), wholesale trade ($20.5 million), health care ($13.2 million), ¶ and forestry ($6.8 million). ¶ There are 2,112 new jobs required in the non-export sectors to support additional ¶ exports to Cuba. The major sectors impacted are other agriculture (641), business ¶ services (250), health care (145), food, drink and retail (133), real estate (120), ¶ wholesale trade (105), finance (95) and transportation (85).
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SUBMITTED REPORT BY AGRILIFE RESEARCH, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY¶ HEARING TO REVIEW U.S. AGRICULTURAL SALES TO CUBA March 11 2010¶ http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-111hhrg55518/html/CHRG-111hhrg55518.htm
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Reducing the cost and time necessary to process payment for U.S. exports to Cuba ¶ would have major economic impacts in terms of increased exports and economic activity U.S. exports to Cuba would be expected to rise by $271.2 million/year, requiring an additional $561.9 million in business activity for a total economic impact of ¶ $833.1 million and supporting 4,478 new jobs Important economic impacts would occur among the non-export sectors as well. There are 2,112 new jobs required in the non-export sectors to support additional ¶ exports to Cuba
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Reducing agricultural restrictions adds millions to our economy and supports thousands of new jobs.
| 2,033 | 99 | 554 | 320 | 14 | 90 | 0.04375 | 0.28125 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,164 |
U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba of $528 million in 2009 required 8,588 jobs and ¶ generated $1.6 billion in total economic activity. CNAS estimates indicate that for ¶ every $1 of U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba in 2009, an additional $1.96 in business activity was required to support those exports. These economic impacts of food and other agricultural exports to Cuba were estimated using IMPLAN, an input/output model. IMPLAN is maintained by Minnesota ¶ IMPLAN Group, Austin, Minnesota. Economic multipliers for each sector of the ¶ economy were used to estimate how a change in one sector affects business activity ¶ and employment in the other sectors of the economy. ¶ Business activity refers to the total output of a sector, such as corn, and the value ¶ of all purchased inputs used to produce corn for export. Business activity also includes employee compensation, proprietor income, rents and royalties, and payment ¶ of indirect business taxes. Employment is reported as total jobs, with full-time and ¶ part-time jobs counting the same.
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SUBMITTED REPORT BY AGRILIFE RESEARCH, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY¶ HEARING TO REVIEW U.S. AGRICULTURAL SALES TO CUBA March 11 2010¶ http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-111hhrg55518/html/CHRG-111hhrg55518.htm
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U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba of $528 million in 2009 required 8,588 jobs and ¶ generated $1.6 billion in total economic activity. CNAS estimates indicate that for ¶ every $1 of U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba an additional $1.96 in business activity was required to support those exports . Economic multipliers for each sector of the ¶ economy were used to estimate how a change in one sector affects business activity
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Agricultural exports to Cuba have an economic multiplier effect, for every dollar of exports it generates $1.96 in economic activity to support the exports.
| 1,055 | 156 | 425 | 171 | 24 | 71 | 0.140351 | 0.415205 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,165 |
The Cuban government has supported these measures by incentivizing urban population to move into the country and undertake agricultural production. Even with increased domestic agriculture production, however, Cuba will continue to see its need for imported foods grow, which provides an opportunity for U.S. agricultural producers.¶ Cuba imports half of its citizens’ caloric needs and with outdated technology and workforce limitations, there is an opportunity for a mutually beneficial relationship focused on agricultural trade. However, for this to materialize and reach full potential, there must be a change in U.S. policy toward trade and commercial relations with Cuba.¶ The U.S. Treasury Department’s reinterpretation in 2005 of the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act (TSREEA) — requiring payment through third-country banks in advance of shipment — has been a factor in the decline of U.S. rice exports from 176,000 MT in 2004 to less than 13,000 MT in 2008, with no trade since 2009, negatively impacting economic activity and jobs.¶ USA Rice strongly supports the removal of statutory and regulatory restrictions on direct trade with Cuba, the clarification of Congress’s intent to legalize agricultural sales to Cuba, and the liberalization of travel licensing and payment rules concerning U.S. agricultural sales to Cuba.
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Contemporánea. U.S. Farmers Lend an Ear to Cuba’s Economic Reforms June 5, 2013 http://www.cubacontemporanea.com/en/u-s-farmers-lend-ear-cubas-economic-reforms/
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Even with increased domestic agriculture production Cuba will continue to see its need for imported foods grow which provides an opportunity for U.S. agricultural producers The U.S. Treasury Department’s reinterpretation of the TSREEA has been a factor in the decline of U.S. rice exports negatively impacting economic activity and jobs.¶ USA Rice strongly supports the removal of statutory and regulatory restrictions on direct trade with Cuba, the clarification of Congress’s intent to legalize agricultural sales to Cuba, and the liberalization of travel licensing and payment rules concerning U.S. agricultural sales to Cuba
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Agricultural restrictions are massively limiting US rice exports to Cuba.
| 1,351 | 73 | 628 | 202 | 10 | 92 | 0.049505 | 0.455446 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,166 |
Biloxi, MS—A study commissioned by the USA Rice Federation and conducted by the Texas Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A & M University, entitled Economic Contributions of the U.S. Rice Industry to the U.S. Economy, estimates the total output effect for the U.S. rice industry to the nation’s economy at $34 billion in 2009.¶ In addition, the rice industry supported more than 128,000 jobs with a value added to the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) of nearly $18 billion.¶ The report, released Dec. 10 from the 2010 USA Rice Outlook Conference, details the significant economic contributions of rice farmers, millers, and end users on the U.S. economy, and the economies of the six major rice-producing states: Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas.¶ At the farm level in 2009, the economic output was $5.3 billion, supporting more than 36,000 jobs, with value added to the nation’s GDP of $2.6 billion.¶ The rice milling industry generated nearly $11 billion in economic activity, contributing $6.4 billion to the U.S. GDP, and providing more than 38,000 jobs.¶ The end user segment of the industry, which includes exporters, food processing companies, brewers, and pet food manufacturers, represented $18 billion in economic output, supporting more than 53,000 jobs and contributing $8.6 billion to the nation’s GDP.¶ USA Rice Federation Chairman Jackie Loewer Jr., a rice farmer from Branch, LA, said the findings demonstrate the importance of rice production to America’s economy.¶ “The study results provide a good baseline for the impact of rice production in rice states and confirm the substantial economic activity generated by U.S. rice production throughout the nation,” Loewer said.
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GrainNet, USA Rice Federation and Texas A&M Report Shows U.S. Rice Industry Adds $34 Billion to Nation's Economy Date Posted: December 10, 2010 http://www.grainnet.com/articles/USA_Rice_Federation_and_Texas_A_M_Report_Shows_U_S__Rice_Industry_Adds__34_Billion_to_Nation_s_Economy-102369.html
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A study conducted by the Texas Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A & M University , estimates the total output effect for the U.S. rice industry to the nation’s economy at $34 billion .¶ In addition, the rice industry supported more than 128,000 jobs with a value added to the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) of nearly $18 billion At the farm level in 2009, the economic output was $5.3 billion, supporting more than 36,000 jobs, with value added to the nation’s GDP of $2.6 billion. The rice milling industry generated nearly $11 billion in economic activity, contributing $6.4 billion to the U.S. GDP, and providing more than 38,000 jobs the findings demonstrate the importance of rice production to America’s economy.¶ “The study results provide a good baseline for the impact of rice production in rice states and confirm the substantial economic activity generated by U.S. rice production throughout the nation
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Rice industry is critical to the US economy
| 1,734 | 43 | 928 | 270 | 8 | 153 | 0.02963 | 0.566667 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,167 |
U.S. agricultural exports generated employment, income, and purchasing power in both the farm and nonfarm sectors. ERS estimates that each dollar of agricultural exports stimulated another $1.29 in business activity in 2011. The $136.4 billion of agricultural exports in 2011 produced an additional $176 billion in economic activity for a total economic output of $312.3 billion. Every $1 billion of U.S. agricultural exports in 2011 required 6,800 American jobs throughout the economy. Calendar year 2011 agricultural exports required 923,000 full-time civilian jobs, which included 637,000 jobs in the nonfarm sector. The agricultural export surplus helped to offset some of the nonagricultural trade deficit.
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Suresh Persaud, agricultural economist with the US Department of Agriculture, June 17 2013 http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/agricultural-trade-multipliers/effects-of-trade-on-the-us-economy.aspx#.Ucns8js3u5I
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U.S. agricultural exports generated employment, income, and purchasing power in both the farm and nonfarm sectors that each dollar of agricultural exports stimulated another $1.29 in business activity in 2011 The $136.4 billion of agricultural exports in 2011 produced an additional $176 billion in economic activity for a total economic output of $312.3 billion. Every $1 billion of U.S. agricultural exports in 2011 required 6,800 American jobs throughout the economy The agricultural export surplus helped to offset some of the nonagricultural trade deficit.
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Agricultural exports key to the economy, providing jobs, and reducing the trade deficit.
| 711 | 88 | 561 | 103 | 13 | 83 | 0.126214 | 0.805825 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,168 |
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Political science literature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defence behaviour of interdependent states. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow. First, on the systemic level, Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompson’s (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous shocks such as economic crises could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin, 10981) that leads to uncertainty about power balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon, 1995). Alternatively, even a relatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner, 1999). Seperately, Polllins (1996) also shows that global economic cycles combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major, medium, and small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remain unknown. Second, on a dyadic level, Copeland’s (1996,2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that ‘future expectation of trade’ is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behavior of states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. However, if the expectation of future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood for conflict increases , as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states. Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Blomberg and Hess (2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write, The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour. Moreover, the presence of a recession tends to amplify the extent to which international and external conflicts self-reinforce each other. (Blomberg & Hess, 2002, p.89). Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg, Hess, & Weerapana, 2004), which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore, crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. ‘Diversionary theory’ suggests that, when facing unpopularity arising from economic decline, sitting governments have increased incentives to create a ‘rally round the flag’ effect. Wang (1996), DeRouen (1995), and Blomberg, Hess and Thacker (2006) find supporting evidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. Gelpi (1997) Miller (1999) and Kisanganie and Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing that periods of weak economic performance in the United States, and thus weak presidential popularity, are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force..
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Royal 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-214
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periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. rhythms in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of pre-eminent power and the often bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next that leads to uncertainty about power balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation theory of trade expectations suggests that ‘future expectation of trade’ is a significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behavior of states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations. Crises could potentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependent states others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Economic conflict tends to spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favour Economic decline has also been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism
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Global economic crisis causes war---strong statistical support—also causes great power transitions
| 3,972 | 98 | 1,080 | 585 | 11 | 164 | 0.018803 | 0.280342 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,169 |
Like the Great Depression, the current economic slump has fanned the firs of nationalist, ethnic and religious hatred around the world. Economic hardship is not the only cause of these social and political pathologies, but it aggravates all of them, and in turn they feed back on economic development. They also undermine efforts to deal with such global problems as environmental pollution, the production and trafficking of drugs, crime, sickness, famine, AIDS and other plagues. Growth will not solve all those problems by itself. But economic growth – and growth alone – creates the additional resources that make it possible to achieve such fundamental goals as higher living standards, national and collective security, a healthier environment, and more liberal and open economies and societies
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Silk 93 — Leonard Silk, Distinguished Professor of Economics at Pace University, Senior Research Fellow at the Ralph Bunche Institute on the United Nations at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, and former Economics Columnist with the New York Times, 1993 (“Dangers of Slow Growth,” Foreign Affairs)
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Economic hardship undermine efforts to deal with such global problems as environmental pollution, the production and trafficking of drugs, crime, sickness, famine, AIDS and other plagues. economic growth – and growth alone – creates the additional resources that make it possible to achieve such fundamental goals national and collective security, a healthier environment, and more liberal and open economies and societies
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Sustaining economic growth is vital to generate the resources needed to solve multiple global problems, like environmental destruction, disease, and other conflicts.
| 800 | 165 | 422 | 124 | 22 | 61 | 0.177419 | 0.491935 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,170 |
Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to the United States’ position as global leader. While the United States suffers from fiscal imbalances and low economic growth, the economies of rival powers are developing rapidly. The continuation of these two trends could lead to a shift from American primacy toward a multi-polar global system, leading in turn to increased geopolitical rivalry and even war among the great powers. The current recession is the result of a deep financial crisis, not a mere fluctuation in the business cycle. Recovery is likely to be protracted. The crisis was preceded by the buildup over two decades of enormous amounts of debt throughout the U.S. economy — ultimately totaling almost 350 percent of GDP — and the development of credit-fueled asset bubbles, particularly in the housing sector. When the bubbles burst, huge amounts of wealth were destroyed, and unemployment rose to over 10 percent. The decline of tax revenues and massive countercyclical spending put the U.S. government on an unsustainable fiscal path. Publicly held national debt rose from 38 to over 60 percent of GDP in three years. Without faster economic growth and actions to reduce deficits, publicly held national debt is projected to reach dangerous proportions. If interest rates were to rise significantly, annual interest payments — which already are larger than the defense budget — would crowd out other spending or require substantial tax increases that would undercut economic growth. Even worse, if unanticipated events trigger what economists call a “sudden stop” in credit markets for U.S. debt, the United States would be unable to roll over its outstanding obligations, precipitating a sovereign-debt crisis that would almost certainly compel a radical retrenchment of the United States internationally. Such scenarios would reshape the international order. It was the economic devastation of Britain and France during World War II, as well as the rise of other powers, that led both countries to relinquish their empires. In the late 1960s, British leaders concluded that they lacked the economic capacity to maintain a presence “east of Suez.” Soviet economic weakness, which crystallized under Gorbachev, contributed to their decisions to withdraw from Afghanistan, abandon Communist regimes in Eastern Europe, and allow the Soviet Union to fragment. If the U.S. debt problem goes critical, the United States would be compelled to retrench, reducing its military spending and shedding international commitments. We face this domestic challenge while other major powers are experiencing rapid economic growth. Even though countries such as China, India, and Brazil have profound political, social, demographic, and economic problems, their economies are growing faster than ours, and this could alter the global distribution of power. These trends could in the long term produce a multi-polar world. If U.S. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow, it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge. The closing of the gap between the United States and its rivals could intensify geopolitical competition among major powers, increase incentives for local powers to play major powers against one another, and undercut our will to preclude or respond to international crises because of the higher risk of escalation. The stakes are high. In modern history, the longest period of peace among the great powers has been the era of U.S. leadership. By contrast, multi-polar systems have been unstable, with their competitive dynamics resulting in frequent crises and major wars among the great powers. Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. American retrenchment could have devastating consequences. Without an American security blanket, regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats. Under this scenario, there would be a heightened possibility of arms races, miscalculation, or other crises spiraling into all-out conflict. Alternatively, in seeking to accommodate the stronger powers, weaker powers may shift their geopolitical posture away from the United States. Either way, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. As rival powers rise, Asia in particular is likely to emerge as a zone of great-power competition. Beijing’s economic rise has enabled a dramatic military buildup focused on acquisitions of naval, cruise, and ballistic missiles, long-range stealth aircraft, and anti-satellite capabilities. China’s strategic modernization is aimed, ultimately, at denying the United States access to the seas around China. Even as cooperative economic ties in the region have grown, China’s expansive territorial claims — and provocative statements and actions following crises in Korea and incidents at sea — have roiled its relations with South Korea, Japan, India, and Southeast Asian states. Still, the United States is the most significant barrier facing Chinese hegemony and aggression. Given the risks, the United States must focus on restoring its economic and fiscal condition while checking and managing the rise of potential adversarial regional powers such as China. While we face significant challenges, the U.S. economy still accounts for over 20 percent of the world’s GDP. American institutions — particularly those providing enforceable rule of law — set it apart from all the rising powers. Social cohesion underwrites political stability. U.S. demographic trends are healthier than those of any other developed country. A culture of innovation, excellent institutions of higher education, and a vital sector of small and medium-sized enterprises propel the U.S. economy in ways difficult to quantify. Historically, Americans have responded pragmatically, and sometimes through trial and error, to work our way through the kind of crisis that we face today. The policy question is how to enhance economic growth and employment while cutting discretionary spending in the near term and curbing the growth of entitlement spending in the out years. Republican members of Congress have outlined a plan. Several think tanks and commissions, including President Obama’s debt commission, have done so as well. Some consensus exists on measures to pare back the recent increases in domestic spending, restrain future growth in defense spending, and reform the tax code (by reducing tax expenditures while lowering individual and corporate rates). These are promising options. The key remaining question is whether the president and leaders of both parties on Capitol Hill have the will to act and the skill to fashion bipartisan solutions. Whether we take the needed actions is a choice, however difficult it might be. It is clearly within our capacity to put our economy on a better trajectory. In garnering political support for cutbacks, the president and members of Congress should point not only to the domestic consequences of inaction — but also to the geopolitical implications. As the United States gets its economic and fiscal house in order, it should take steps to prevent a flare-up in Asia. The United States can do so by signaling that its domestic challenges will not impede its intentions to check Chinese expansionism. This can be done in cost-efficient ways. While China’s economic rise enables its military modernization and international assertiveness, it also frightens rival powers. The Obama administration has wisely moved to strengthen relations with allies and potential partners in the region but more can be done. Some Chinese policies encourage other parties to join with the United States, and the U.S. should not let these opportunities pass. China’s military assertiveness should enable security cooperation with countries on China’s periphery — particularly Japan, India, and Vietnam — in ways that complicate Beijing’s strategic calculus. China’s mercantilist policies and currency manipulation — which harm developing states both in East Asia and elsewhere — should be used to fashion a coalition in favor of a more balanced trade system. Since Beijing’s over-the-top reaction to the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese democracy activist alienated European leaders, highlighting human-rights questions would not only draw supporters from nearby countries but also embolden reformers within China. Since the end of the Cold War, a stable economic and financial condition at home has enabled America to have an expansive role in the world. Today we can no longer take this for granted. Unless we get our economic house in order, there is a risk that domestic stagnation in combination with the rise of rival powers will undermine our ability to deal with growing international problems. Regional hegemons in Asia could seize the moment, leading the world toward a new, dangerous era of multi-polarity.
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Khalilzad 11 — Zalmay Khalilzad, Counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, served as the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush, served as the director of policy planning at the Defense Department during the Presidency of George H.W. Bush, holds a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, 2011 “The Economy and National Security,” National Review, February 8th, http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/print/259024
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economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to the United States’ position as global leader. The continuation of these two trends could lead to a shift from American primacy toward a multi-polar global system, leading in turn to increased geopolitical rivalry and even war among the great powers. Without faster economic growth and actions to reduce deficits, publicly held national debt is projected to reach dangerous proportions Such scenarios would reshape the international order If U.S. policymakers fail to act and other powers continue to grow, it is not a question of whether but when a new international order will emerge The stakes are high Failures of multi-polar international systems produced both world wars. Without an American security blanket, regional powers could rearm in an attempt to balance against emerging threats the United States must focus on restoring its economic and fiscal condition while checking and managing the rise of potential adversarial regional powers
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Economic growth is vital to prevent the collapse of U.S. hegemony.
| 8,959 | 66 | 1,014 | 1,377 | 11 | 157 | 0.007988 | 0.114016 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,171 |
So what is left? Waning empires. Religious revivals. Incipient anarchy. A coming retreat into fortified cities. These are the Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving. The trouble is, of course, that this Dark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth century. For the world is much more populous-roughly 20 times more--so friction between the world's disparate "tribes" is bound to be more frequent. Technology has transformed production; now human societies depend not merely on freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite. Technology has upgraded destruction, too, so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterate it. For more than two decades, globalization--the integration of world markets for commodities, labor, and capital--has raised living standards throughout the world, except where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war. The reversal of globalization--which a new Dark Age would produce--would certainly lead to economic stagnation and even depression. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11 devastates, say, Houston or Chicago, it would inevitably become a less open society, less hospitable for foreigners seeking to work, visit, or do business. Meanwhile, as Europe's Muslim enclaves grew, Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible, increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis, unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. Western investors would lose out and conclude that lower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt on the edges of the waning great powers. The wealthiest ports of the global economy--from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai--would become the targets of plunderers and pirates. With ease, terrorists could disrupt the freedom of the seas, targeting oil tankers, aircraft carriers, and cruise liners, while Western nations frantically concentrated on making their airports secure. Meanwhile, limited nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions, beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir, perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East. In Latin America, wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity imported by U.S. religious orders. In Africa, the great plagues of aids and malaria would continue their deadly work. The few remaining solvent airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents; who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe havens to go there? For all these reasons, the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a great deal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. If the United States retreats from global hegemony--its fragile self-image dented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier--its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony, or even a return to the good old balance of power. Be careful what you wish for. The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. It would be apolarity--a global vacuum of power. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder.
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Niall Ferguson, July/August 2004 “A World Without Power,” FOREIGN POLICY Issue 143
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Waning empires. Religious revivals. Incipient anarchy are the Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving friction is bound to be more frequent Technology has upgraded destruction The reversal of globalization--which a new Dark Age would produce--would certainly lead to economic stagnation and even depression as Europe's Muslim enclaves grew, Islamist extremists' infiltration of the EU would become irreversible, increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the Middle East to the breaking point. An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis, unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires The wealthiest ports of the global economy--from New York to Rotterdam to Shanghai--would become the targets of plunderers and pirates nuclear wars could devastate numerous regions, beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir, perhaps ending catastrophically in the Middle East the great plagues of aids and malaria would continue their deadly work the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a great deal more than it frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. If the United States retreats from global hegemony its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony, or even a return to the good old balance of power The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. It would be apolarity--a global vacuum of power. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from such a not-so-new world disorder
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U.S. withdrawal would leave behind a power vacuum, spurring terrorism, economic turmoil and multiple nuclear wars.
| 3,510 | 114 | 1,592 | 547 | 16 | 244 | 0.02925 | 0.446069 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,172 |
U.S. policy toward Cuba should advance the democratic aspirations of the Cuban people and strengthen U.S. credibility throughout the hemisphere. Our nearly 50-year old policy toward Cuba has failed on both counts: it has resulted in a downward spiral of U.S. influence on the island and has left the United States isolated in the hemisphere and beyond. Our Cuba policy has become a bellwether, indicating the extent to which the United States will act in partnership with the region or unilaterally—and ineffectually. i nevitably, strategic contact and dialogue with the Cuban government will be necessary if the United States seeks to engage the Cuban people. This paper proposes a new goal for U.S. policy to - ward Cuba: to support the emergence of a Cuban state where the Cuban people determine the polit - ical and economic future of their country through democratic means. A great lesson of democracy is that it cannot be imposed; it must come from within; the type of government at the helm of the island’s future will depend on Cubans. Our policy should therefore encompass the political, economic, and diplomatic tools to enable the Cuban people to engage in and direct the politics of their country. This policy will advance the interests of the United States in seeking stable relationships based on common hemispheric values that pro - mote the well-being of each individual and the growth of civil society. To engage the Cuban gov - ernment and Cuban people effectively, the United States will need to engage with other govern - ments, the private sector, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). i n so doing, U.S. policy toward Cuba would reflect the hemisphere’s and our own desire to encourage the Cuban govern - ment to adopt international standards of democ - racy, human rights, and transparency. Engagement does not mean approval of the Cu - ban government’s policies, nor should it indicate a wish to control internal developments in Cuba; legitimate changes in Cuba will only come from the actions of Cubans. i f the United States is to play a positive role in Cuba’s future, it must not indulge in hostile rhetoric nor obstruct a dialogue on issues that would advance democracy, justice, and human rights as well as our broader national interests. p erversely, the policy of seeking to iso - late Cuba, rather than achieving its objective, has contributed to undermining the well-being of the Cuban people and to eroding U.S. influence in Cuba and l atin America. i t has reinforced the Cuban government’s power over its citizens by in - creasing their dependence on it for every aspect of their livelihood. By slowing the flow of ideas and information, we have unwittingly helped Cuban state security delay Cuba’s political and economic evolution toward a more open and representa - tive government. And, by too tightly embracing Cuba’s brave dissidents, we have provided the Cu - ban authorities with an excuse to denounce their legitimate efforts to build a more open society. The Cuban r evolution of 1959 is a fact of histo - ry that cannot be removed or unlived, but, over time, Cuba will change. As the Cuban people become inexorably linked to the region and the world, they will themselves come to play a larger role in the way they are governed. Mortality and time—not U.S. sanctions—have already begun the process of change. A new generation of Cu - ban leaders will replace the Castro brothers and those who fought in the Sierra Maestra. Although Cuba is already undergoing a process of change, the Bush administration’s decision to cling to out - moded tactics of harsh rhetoric and confrontation alienated leaders across the region. Cuba policy should be a pressing issue for the Obama administration because it offers a unique opportunity for the president to transform our rela - tions with the hemisphere. Even a slight shift away from hostility to engagement will permit the United States to work more closely with the region to ef - fectively advance a common agenda toward Cuba. By announcing a policy of critical and constructive engagement at the April Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago, the president can prove that he has been listening to the region. He can under - line this commitment by removing all restrictions on travel and remittances on Cuban Americans, and engaging in dialogue with the regime, as prom - ised during his campaign. By reciprocally improv - ing our diplomatic relations with Cuba, we will en - hance our understanding of the island, its people, and its leaders. However, while these measures will promote understanding, improve the lives of people on the island, and build support for a new relation - ship between our countries, they are insufficient to ensure the changes needed to result in normal dip - lomatic relations over time. i f the president is to advance U.S. interests and principles, he will need a new policy and a long- term strategic vision for U.S. relations with Cuba. i f he is prepared to discard the failed policy of regime change and adopt one of critical and con - structive engagement, he and his administration will lay the foundations for a new approach to - ward Cuba and the l atin America. l ike his pre - decessors, p resident Obama has the authority to substantially modify embargo regulations in order to advance a policy of engagement that would broaden and deepen contacts with the Cuban people and their government. He has the popular support—domestic and international—to engage Cuba, and, by so doing, to staunch our diminishing influence on the island and recapture the high road in our relations with the hemisphere.
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Pascual and Huddleston 9 (Carlos – Vice president and Director of Foreign policy – the Brookings Institution, and Vicki – Visiting Fellow, “CUBA: A New policy of Critical and Constructive Engagement”, April, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2009/4/cuba/0413_cuba.pdf)
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U.S. policy toward Cuba should strengthen U.S. credibility throughout the hemisphere Our nearly 50-year old policy toward Cuba has failed it has resulted in a downward spiral of U.S. influence on the island and has left the U S isolated in the hemisphere and beyond. Our Cuba policy has become a bellwether, indicating the extent to which the U S will act in partnership with the region A great lesson of democracy is that it cannot be imposed it must come from within Our policy should therefore encompass economic tools This policy will advance the interests of the U S in seeking stable relationships based on common hemispheric values Obama has the authority to substantially modify embargo regulations in order to advance a policy of engagement He has the popular support domestic and international—to engage Cuba and, by so doing, to staunch our diminishing influence and recapture the high road in our relations with the hemisphere.
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Advantage __: Latin American Relations
| 5,643 | 38 | 939 | 951 | 5 | 156 | 0.005258 | 0.164038 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,173 |
Third, the Obama Administration ignores Latin America at its own peril. Latin America's importance to the United States is growing by the day, and cannot be overstated. While the issue of U.S.-Cuba relations is obviously of smaller import than many other issues currently affecting the world (i.e., the ailing economy, climate change, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction), addressing it would also involve correspondingly less effort than those issues, but could potentially lead to a disproportionately high return by making regional cooperation more likely. 20 In order to confront any of the major world issues facing the United States, Washington must find a way to cooperate with its neighbors, who generally view U.S. policy toward Cuba as the most glaring symbol of its historic inability to constructively engage the region. These three reasons combine for a perfect storm: to the extent that a healthy U.S.-Cuban relationship would mean a healthier U.S.-Latin America relationship, the former should be pursued with an unprecedented vigor, one that has been absent for the last fifty years.
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Perez 2010 (David A. Perex, J.D. Yale Law Schoo, “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department,” Spring, 2010, Harvard Latino Law Review, Lexis)
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the Obama Administration ignores Latin America at its own peril. Latin America's importance to the United States is growing by the day, and cannot be overstated. issues currently affecting the world the ailing economy, climate change, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction In order to confront any of the major world issues facing the United States, Washington must find a way to cooperate with its neighbors, who generally view U.S. policy toward Cuba as the most glaring symbol of its historic inability to constructively engage the region.
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Latin American relations solve proliferation and global warming--- Cuba policy is the key roadblock
| 1,108 | 99 | 549 | 172 | 14 | 87 | 0.081395 | 0.505814 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,174 |
Human societies tend to lack the imagination to think through, and to act upon, what have become known as ‘black swan’ events (26): that which has never occurred (or which has happened very rarely and in a wholly different context) is deemed not be in the field of reality, and to which must be added eventualities which are denied because their consequences are to awful to contemplate. The extremes of human misconduct (the incredulity in the face of evidence of the Holocaust, the failure to imagine 9/11) bear testimony to this hard-wired trait of our species. This would not normally warrant mention as a factor of growing salience if not for the recession into time of the original and only use of nuclear weapons in August 1945. Non-use of nuclear weapons may be taken for granted rather than being an absolute taboo. Recent writing on the reputedly limited effects of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs (27) may contribute to such a trend, in the name of reducing the legitimacy of nuclear weapons. Recent (and often compelling) historical accounts of the surrender of the Japanese Empire which downplay the role of the atomic bombings in comparison to early research can produce a similar effect, even if that may not have been the intention (28). However desirable it has been, the end of atmospheric nuclear testing (29) has removed for more than three decades the periodic reminders which such monstrous detonations made as to the uniquely destructive nature of nuclear weapons. There is a real and growing risk that we forget what was obvious to those who first described in 1941 the unique nature of yet-to-be produced nuclear weapons (30). The risk is no doubt higher in those states for which the history of World War II has little relevance and which have not had the will or the opportunity to wrestle at the time or ex post facto with the moral and strategic implications of the nuclear bombing of Japan in 1945.¶ Unsustainable strains are possibly the single most compelling feature of contemporary proliferation. Tight geographical constraints –with, for instance, New Delhi and Islamabad located within 300 miles of each other-; nuclear multi-polarity against the backdrop of multiple, criss-crossing, sources of tension in the Middle East (as opposed to the relative simplicity of the US-Soviet confrontation); the existence of doctrines (such as India’s ‘cold start’) and force postures (such as Pakistan’s broadening array of battlefield nukes)which rest on the expectation of early use; the role of non-state actors as aggravating or triggering factors when they are perceived as operating with the connivance of an antagonist state ( in the past, the assassination of the Austrian Archduke in Sarajevo in 1914; in the future, Hezbollah operatives launching rockets with effect against Israel or Lashkar-e-Taiba commandos doing a ‘Bombay’ redux in India?) : individually or in combination, these factors test crisis management capabilities more severely than anything seen during the Cold War with the partial exception of the Cuban missile crisis. Even the overabundant battlefield nuclear arsenals in Cold War Central Europe, with their iffy weapons’ safety and security arrangements, were less of a challenge: the US and Soviet short-range nuclear weapons so deployed were not putting US and Soviet territory and capitals at risk.¶ It may be argued that these risk factors are known to potential protagonists and that they therefore will be led to avoid the sort of nuclear brinksmanship which characterized US and Soviet behavior during the Cold War in crises such as the Korean war, Berlin, Cuba or the Yom Kippur war. Unfortunately, the multiple nuclear crises between India and Pakistan demonstrate no such prudence, rather to the contrary. And were such restraint to feed into nuclear policy and crisis planning –along the lines of apparently greater US and Soviet nuclear caution from the mid-Seventies onwards-, the fact would remain that initial intent rarely resists the strains of a complex, multi-actor confrontation between inherently distrustful antagonists. It is also worth reflecting on the fact that during the 1980s, there was real and acute fear in Soviet ruling circles that the West was preparing an out-of-the-blue nuclear strike, a fear which in turn fed into Soviet policies and dispositions (31
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Heisbourg 2012 (François Heisbourg, Chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, April 4, 2012, “How Bad Would the Further Spread of Nuclear Weapons Be?,” Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, http://www.npolicy.org/article.php?aid=1171&tid=4)
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Human societies tend to lack the imagination to think through ‘black swan’ events that which has never occurred Non-use of nuclear weapons may be taken for granted rather than being an absolute taboo. There is a real and growing risk that we forget what was obvious to those who first described in 1941 the unique nature of yet-to-be produced nuclear weapons Unsustainable strains are the most compelling feature of contemporary proliferation. Tight geographical constraints nuclear multi-polarity against the backdrop of multiple, criss-crossing, sources of tension the existence of doctrines and force postures which rest on the expectation of early use; the role of non-state actors as aggravating or triggering factors when they are perceived as operating with the connivance of an antagonist state test crisis management capabilities more severely than anything seen during the Cold War It may be argued that these risk factors are known protagonists and they will be led to avoid the sort of nuclear brinksmanship which characterized US and Soviet behavior during the Cold War multiple nuclear crises between India and Pakistan demonstrate no such prudence, rather to the contrary. the fact would remain that initial intent rarely resists the strains of a complex, multi-actor confrontation between inherently distrustful antagonists.
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Proliferation makes nuclear war inevitable- 4 reasons it’s destabilizing
| 4,346 | 72 | 1,340 | 700 | 9 | 204 | 0.012857 | 0.291429 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,175 |
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told the Guardian last week. At first sight this looks like wise counsel from the climate science adviser to Defra. But the idea that we could adapt to a 4C rise is absurd and dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a catastrophe that would mean, in the immortal words that Chief Seattle probably never spoke, "the end of living and the beginning of survival" for humankind. Or perhaps the beginning of our extinction. The collapse of the polar ice caps would become inevitable, bringing long-term sea level rises of 70-80 metres. All the world's coastal plains would be lost, complete with ports, cities, transport and industrial infrastructure, and much of the world's most productive farmland. The world's geography would be transformed much as it was at the end of the last ice age, when sea levels rose by about 120 metres to create the Channel, the North Sea and Cardigan Bay out of dry land. Weather would become extreme and unpredictable, with more frequent and severe droughts, floods and hurricanes. The Earth's carrying capacity would be hugely reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die.
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Tickell 2008—Oliver Tickell, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, August 11, 2008, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange
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the idea that we could adapt to a 4C rise is absurd and dangerous. Global warming on this scale would be a catastrophe that would mean , "the end of living and the beginning of survival" for humankind. Or extinction. Weather would become extreme and unpredictable, with more frequent and severe droughts, floods and hurricanes. The Earth's carrying capacity would be hugely reduced. Billions would undoubtedly die.
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Global warming causes extinction
| 1,176 | 32 | 414 | 197 | 4 | 67 | 0.020305 | 0.340102 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,176 |
¶ • Because of data limitations and the non-market aspects of Cuban purchasing decisions,¶ the overall effect of removing all statutory restrictions on U.S. exports to Cuba is difficult¶ to quantify. However, based on interviews with Cuban purchasing officials, sector¶ modeling results, and discussions with U.S. industry officials, the Commission estimates¶ that the U.S. share of Cuban agricultural, fish, and forest product imports would rise to¶ between one-half and two-thirds.¶ • Financing restrictions raise Cuba’s cost of purchasing U.S. products. Many of these costs¶ are difficult to measure precisely. Therefore, Commission estimates of financing¶ restriction effects are presented in the form of ranges. Staff interviews and analysis¶ indicate that such costs range between 2.5 to 10 percent of the purchase price depending¶ on the commodity sector.¶ • All agricultural commodity sectors would likely benefit from the lifting of the financing¶ restrictions on U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba (table ES.1). Among the sixteen¶ commodity groups examined, the largest gains in U.S. exports to Cuba were for other¶ food products, including fresh fruits and vegetables (a rise of $34 million to $65 million¶ annually), milk powder ($14 million to $41 million), processed foods ($18 million to $34¶ million), wheat ($17 million to $33 million), and dry beans ($9 million to $22 million).¶
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United States International Trade Commission 2007 Estimated Effect on U.S. Sales of Agricultural Products to Cuba if Restrictions on Financing were Lifted , http://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/pub3932.pdf
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,¶ the overall effect of removing all statutory restrictions on U.S. exports to Cuba is difficult¶ to quantify. However, based on interviews with Cuban purchasing officials, sector¶ modeling results, and discussions with U.S. industry officials, the Commission estimates¶ that the U.S. share of Cuban agricultural, fish, and forest product imports would rise to¶ between one-half and two-thirds.¶ All agricultural commodity sectors would likely benefit from the lifting of the financing¶ restrictions on U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba
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Studies prove Cuba will accept the exports – massively increasing the US market share and agricultural profits.
| 1,396 | 111 | 537 | 210 | 17 | 77 | 0.080952 | 0.366667 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,177 |
According to the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) report, ¶ ``U.S. Agricultural Sales to Cuba: Certain Economic Effects of U.S. ¶ Restrictions,'' Cuba's value of agricultural imports more than tripled ¶ from approximately $500 million in 2000 to more than $1.8 billion in ¶ 2008. There is much more opportunity to expand the U.S. market share. ¶ The United States should be the preferred supplier in Cuba given our ¶ competitive prices, high-quality products and lower delivery cost due ¶ to proximity of our countries. Instead, we have opened the door to ¶ countries like the European Union, Brazil, Canada and Vietnam while ¶ hindering ourselves. At this point our competitive disadvantage in the ¶ market is not a result of the usual trade reasons, tariffs, partner-¶ imposed sanitary and phytosanitary measures or other non-tariff ¶ barriers, but rather our own government-imposed restrictions.
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Bob Stallman, President of the American Farm Bureau Federation, 2010, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-111hhrg55518/html/CHRG-111hhrg55518.htm
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Cuba's value of agricultural imports more than tripled ¶ from approximately $500 million in 2000 to more than $1.8 billion in ¶ 2008. There is much more opportunity to expand the U.S. market share The United States should be the preferred supplier . Instead, we have opened the door to ¶ countries like the European Union, Brazil, Canada and Vietnam while ¶ hindering ourselves At this point our competitive disadvantage in the ¶ market is not a result of the usual trade reasons, tariffs, partner-¶ imposed sanitary and phytosanitary measures or other non-tariff ¶ barriers, but rather our own government-imposed restrictions
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Our own restrictions are the barrier to increased ag sales to Cuba – they could produce a huge profit.
| 907 | 102 | 626 | 143 | 19 | 101 | 0.132867 | 0.706294 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,178 |
Because of the great market potential, the American Farm Bureau Federation has been an advocate for easing restrictions on exports to Cuba and is a supporter of H.R. 4645, sponsored by House Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) and Rep. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.). The bill would reverse the restrictions on “payment of cash in advance,” eliminate the third country bank requirement and lift the ban on travel. According to AFBF, passage of the legislation would make agriculture a strong player in the Cuban market and increase U.S. agricultural exports.¶ “We have seen the promise the market holds,” said Stallman. “Unfortunately, because of restrictions on U.S exports to Cuba, U.S. farmers have not been able to benefit from the full potential of the market.”¶ U.S. agriculture has seen significant growth, but has also experienced significant setbacks, since being allowed to trade with Cuba in 2000. On average the United States has exported roughly $320 million in agricultural products per year since 2000, reaching a high of almost $700 million in 2008. But, said Stallman, the United States is not viewed by Cuba as a reliable supplier due to our sales restrictions and the ability of the U.S. government to “alter those restrictions at a whim.”¶ “Our competitors do not have the same obstacles in trading with Cuba we face,” said Stallman. “Eliminating these restrictions will decrease the advantages the United States has given our competitors and restore the advantage to U.S. farmers. These actions will make it easier for Cuba to purchase U.S. commodities and, most importantly, will reduce the cost of purchasing our commodities.”¶ The United States exports a variety of commodities to Cuba. Of those, grain and feed has consistently topped sales, reaching $369 million and making up more than half of agriculture’s total exports to the country in 2008. The U.S. also exports a wide range of other commodities to Cuba including oilseeds, meats and dairy.¶ “U.S. agriculture is not requesting the embargo be lifted, but rather for Congress to take the small step of lifting key restrictions that will increase U.S. agriculture’s competitiveness in the market,” said Stallman. “Now is the time for Congress to take action to ease some of the current trade restrictions.”
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The Voice of Agriculture, March 11 2010 http://www.fb.org/index.php?action=newsroom.news&year=2010&file=nr0311.html
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We have seen the promise the market holds Unfortunately, because of restrictions on U.S exports to Cuba, U.S. farmers have not been able to benefit from the full potential of the market “Our competitors do not have the same obstacles in trading with Cuba we face, Eliminating these restrictions will decrease the advantages the United States has given our competitors and restore the advantage to U.S. farmers. U.S. agriculture is not requesting the embargo be lifted, but rather for Congress to take the small step of lifting key restrictions that will increase U.S. agriculture’s competitiveness in the market Now is the time for Congress to take action to ease some of the current trade restrictions.”
|
Removal of agricultural restrictions will benefit our exports and restore the advantage to US farmers in the market.
| 2,288 | 116 | 704 | 367 | 18 | 115 | 0.049046 | 0.313351 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,179 |
There’s significant export growth potential in relaxing trade and travel restrictions with Cuba. That was the subject of the Senate Agriculture Committee’s third Farm Bill hearing Wednesday.¶ Committee Chairman Blanche Lincoln opened the hearing by pointing out that Cuba already contributes to the U.S. agriculture trade surplus.¶ “Even with the current in place, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba have averaged about $470 million over the last five years accounting for about a quarter of Cuba’s food and agricultural imports,” said Senator Lincoln, in comments she made to open the Wednesday hearing.¶ Senator Lincoln cited figures indicating that passing a bill relaxing restrictions with Cuba would double the current business being done with that nation.¶ She says agriculture exports in general contribute to the overall recovery of the nation’s sagging economy.9.¶ “Every additional $1 billion of agricultural products we export we can create 9,000 jobs,” she said. ¶ The Arkansas lawmaker adds that agriculture trade is one of the areas currently enjoying a surplus. There are more agriculture exports than there are imports.¶
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Tom Steever August 4, 2010 “Lifting Cuba restrictions would boost ag exports”
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There’s significant export growth potential in relaxing trade restrictions with Cuba “Even with the current in place, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba have averaged about $470 million over the last five years accounting for about a quarter of Cuba’s food and agricultural imports,” agriculture exports in general contribute to the overall recovery of the nation’s sagging economy “Every additional $1 billion of agricultural products we export we can create 9,000 jobs,” The Arkansas lawmaker adds that agriculture trade is one of the areas currently enjoying a surplus
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Lifting Cuba restrictions would boost ag exports
| 1,135 | 48 | 570 | 172 | 7 | 87 | 0.040698 | 0.505814 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,180 |
In 2000, Congress approved a modest opening of the embargo. The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act allows cash-only sales to Cuba of US farm products and medical supplies. The results of this modest opening have been quite amazing. Since 2000, total sales of farm products to Cuba have increased from virtually zero to $691m in 2008. The top US exports by value are corn, meat and poultry, wheat and soybeans. From dead last, Cuba is now the number six customer in Latin America for US agricultural products. Last year, American farmers sold more to the 11.5 million people who live in Cuba than to the 200 million people in Brazil. According to the US international trade commission, US farm exports would increase another $250m if restrictions were lifted on export financing. This should not be interpreted as a call for export-import bank subsidies. Trade with Cuba must be entirely commercial and market driven. Lifting the embargo should not mean that US taxpayers must now subsidise exports to Cuba. But neither should the government stand in the way.
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Daniel Griswold 2009 “The US Embargo of Cuba Is a Failure” (director of the Cato Institute's Center for Trade Policy Studies) <http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/us-embargo-cuba-is-failure>
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The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act allows cash-only sales to Cuba of US farm products and medical supplies The results of this modest opening have been quite amazing US farm exports would increase another $250m if restrictions were lifted on export financing. Trade with Cuba must be entirely commercial and market driven. But neither should the government stand in the way
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Farmers could be making another 250 million
| 1,073 | 43 | 392 | 179 | 7 | 63 | 0.039106 | 0.351955 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,181 |
A 2007 report by the U.S. International Trade Commission, an independent federal agency, estimated that the U.S. share of Cuba's agricultural imports could rise from one-third to between one-half and two-thirds if sanctions were lifted. The largest gains would be for fresh fruits and vegetables, including potatoes, milk powder, processed foods, poultry, beef and pork.¶ "There's probably a $1 billion market for U.S. farm products, and over time it could hit $1.4 billion," said Parr Rosson, a professor of agricultural economics at Texas A&M University who studies Cuba.
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JOHN OTIS, South America Bureau | March 2, 2008 U.S.-Cuba trade holds big potential Some calling to end 46-year-old sanctions now that Fidel Castro has resigned http://www.chron.com/business/article/U-S-Cuba-trade-holds-big-potential-1658727.php
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the U.S. share of Cuba's agricultural imports could rise from one-third to between one-half and two-thirds if sanctions were lifted. The largest gains would be for fresh fruits and vegetables "There's probably a $1 billion market for U.S. farm products, and over time it could hit $1.4 billion,"
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Huge market exists in Cuba for exports – up to 1.4 billion dollars.
| 573 | 68 | 295 | 88 | 13 | 48 | 0.147727 | 0.545455 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,182 |
If financing restrictions on U.S. exports to Cuba were lifted (scenario 1), the total value of¶ Cuban agricultural imports from the United States would increase significantly in fifteen of¶ the sixteen commodity groups examined, the exception being soybeans (table 4.1).3¶ The¶ largest increase in value of U.S. exports to Cuba will likely occur for other food products,¶ including fresh potatoes, fruits, and vegetables (a rise of $34 million to $65 million annually¶ above the 2006 U.S. export level), followed by milk powder ($14 million to $41 million);¶ rice ($14 million to $43 million); processed foods ($18 million to $34 million); wheat¶ ($17 million to $33 million); dry beans ($ 9 million to $22 million); and poultry, beef, and¶ pork (each category increasing by about $6 million to $12 million). In percentage terms, the¶ greatest gains will occur for U.S. products exported to Cuba in very low volumes in 2006,¶ particularly fish products (with virtually no exports to Cuba in 2006); processed food (more¶ than an 18-fold increase); other food products including fresh potatoes (more than a 7-fold¶ increase); beef (more than a 60-fold increase); and dairy products (more than a 3-fold¶ increase). No significant change in U.S. soybean exports to Cuba is expected because the¶ United States currently supplies nearly one hundred percent of Cuban imports.
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United States International Trade Commission 2007 Estimated Effect on U.S. Sales of Agricultural Products to Cuba if Restrictions on Financing were Lifted , http://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/pub3932.pdf
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If financing restrictions on U.S. exports to Cuba were lifted the total value of¶ Cuban agricultural imports from the United States would increase significantly in fifteen of¶ the sixteen commodity groups The¶ largest increase in value of U.S. exports to Cuba will likely occur for other food products including fresh potatoes, fruits, and vegetables
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Lifting agriculture restrictions would improve the value of imports in 15 of 16 commodity groups.
| 1,368 | 97 | 350 | 216 | 15 | 54 | 0.069444 | 0.25 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,183 |
In 2008, Cuba imported roughly $1.8 billion in agricultural products, of which $708 million came from the United States. With restrictions lifted, U.S. exports would have been approximately $924 million to $1.2 billion, an increase of $216–478 million. In terms of share, the actual U.S. share was 38 percent. Absent the restrictions, the share would have been 49–64 percent. For individual products, U.S. foodgrains exports would have been significantly higher absent the restrictions: wheat by $35–72 million, rice by $17–48 million. The effect is less for products for which the United States already had a very high share of the Cuban market in 2008, such as corn, soybeans, and poultry. Also, products largely destined for the tourist market show small, but not insignificant, gains, such as processed foods ($29–55 million) and red meats, beef, and pork ($12–21 million). Eliminating financing restrictions on U.S. agricultural exports would likely have a larger impact on U.S. agricultural sales than lifting the travel restrictions on U.S. citizens because most imported food from the United States consists of bulk commodities sold to Cubans rather than foods sold to tourists.
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Coleman June 2009 (Jonathan, J. Coleman is Chief of the Agriculture and Fisheries Division with the Office of Industries ofthe U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) http://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working_papers/ID-22.pdf) //ks
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In 2008, Cuba imported roughly $1.8 billion in agricultural products, of which $708 million came from the U S With restrictions lifted, U.S. exports would have been approximately $924 million to $1.2 billion In terms of share, the actual U.S. share was 38 percent. Absent the restrictions, the share would have been 49–64 percent For individual products, U.S. foodgrains exports would have been significantly higher absent the restrictions: wheat by $35–72 million, rice by $17–48 million Also, products largely destined for the tourist market show small gains, such as processed foods ($29–55 million) and red meats, beef, and pork ($12–21 million).
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Lifting agricultural trade restrictions would massively increase profits in many commodity subgroups.
| 1,186 | 102 | 650 | 184 | 12 | 101 | 0.065217 | 0.548913 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,184 |
The U.S. economy is not yet in recovery mode, according to the second quarterly report of 2013 of the UCLA Anderson Forecast's outlook for the United States.¶ A release on the forecast issued on Thursday notes that despite "improvement in both GDP and key economic sectors, the overall growth falls short of the rates required for the national economy to truly recover from the most recent recession."¶ In its June issue, UCLA Anderson Forecast Director Ed Leamer notes that the U.S. economy is not in recovery because economic growth levels currently fall far short of the levels needed to bring the economy back to trend. "U.S. real GDP is now 15.4 percent below the normal 3 percent trend," notes Leamer. To get back to that 3 percent trend, we would need 4 percent growth for 15 years, or 5 percent growth for eight years, or 6 percent growth for five years, not the disappointing 2s and 3s we have been racking up recently, which are moving us farther from trend, not closer to it. It's not a recovery. It's not even normal growth. It's bad," he explains.
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Blair 6/7/13 (Leonardo Blair is a reporter for CP Business, June 7 2013, “Report: US Economy Not Yet in Recovery Mode But Housing Is Looking Up,” http://www.christianpost.com/news/report-us-economy-not-yet-in-recovery-mode-but-housing-is-looking-up-97480/ //GG)
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The U.S. economy is not yet in recovery mode, according to the second quarterly report of 2013 of the UCLA Anderson Forecast's outlook for the United States. despite "improvement in both GDP and key economic sectors, the overall growth falls short of the rates required for the national economy to truly recover from the most recent recession U.S. real GDP is now 15.4 percent below the normal 3 percent trend To get back to that 3 percent trend, we would need 4 percent growth for 15 years, or 5 percent growth for eight years, or 6 percent growth for five years, not the disappointing 2s and 3s we have been racking up recently, which are moving us farther from trend . It's bad
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The US economy falling short of true recovery.
| 1,060 | 46 | 680 | 187 | 8 | 123 | 0.042781 | 0.657754 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,185 |
The US economic recovery was far weaker in the first quarter of the year than first thought, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. The nation's gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of all goods and services produced in the economy, grew at a 1.8% annual rate from January through March. The figure was revised down from 2.4% as consumer spending and business investment were revised sharply downward.¶ The economy has grown for 15 consecutive quarters, but the pace of those gains – about 2% – is among the weakest for recoveries since the second world war. In the fourth quarter of 2012, economic output expanded by only 0.4%. Personal consumption expenditures – the key measure of consumer spending – was revised down to 2.6% from 3.4%. Spending on foreign travel, legal services, personal care and healthcare, especially dental and home healthcare, were weaker than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said. The Commerce Department revised growth in private investment to 7.4% in the first quarter, down from an original estimate of 12.3%. ¶ This was the third revision to the first quarter's GDP figures. Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG, said it was unusual for the third estimate to deviate so dramatically from the second estimate. "Clearly growth in the first quarter was much weaker than previously thought," he wrote in a note to investors. ¶ "Another area of meaningful weakness is imports; imports were originally reported as growing by 5.4% but now show a contraction of 0.4%. There is one area of positivity though; residential investment expanded at a more rapid pace that originally thought. So housing continues to be an important boost to growth when several other categories are weighing on the economy."¶ The deepest recession since the Great Depression officially ended in June 2009. But growth has averaged about 2% annually, among the weakest for recoveries since the second world war.
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Rushe 6/26/13 (Dominic Rushe is the US business correspondent for the Guardian, June 26 2013, “US economic recovery weaker than first thought – Commerce Department Nation's GDP in first quarter revised down from 2.4% to 1.8% as pace of economic growth slows again,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/26/commerce-department-economic-recovery-gdp //GG)
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The US economic recovery was far weaker in the first quarter of the year than first thought, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. The nation's gross domestic product grew at a 1.8% annual rate from January through March. The figure was revised down from 2.4% as consumer spending and business investment were revised sharply downward The economy has grown for 15 consecutive quarters, but the pace of those gains – about 2% – is among the weakest for recoveries since the second world war The Commerce Department revised growth in private investment to 7.4% in the first quarter, down from an original estimate of 12.3%. ¶ This was the third revision to the first quarter's GDP figures Clearly growth in the first quarter was much weaker than previously thought Another area of meaningful weakness is imports; imports were originally reported as growing by 5.4% but now show a contraction of 0.4%. The deepest recession since the Great Depression officially ended in June 2009. But growth has averaged about 2% annually, among the weakest for recoveries since the second world war.
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Economic recovery is weak – plan key to additional momentum.
| 1,951 | 60 | 1,087 | 315 | 10 | 180 | 0.031746 | 0.571429 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,186 |
There's a lot of talk about economic recovery these days. Mainstream economists are saying the U.S. economy will continue to grow, and the stock advisors are telling investors to buy on dips because everything is headed upward. Their arguments are: housing is hot, the unemployment rate is declining, and consumers are spending.¶ But I have to disagree with those claims. I believe this isn't a real economic recovery. What we have seen since 2009 has been nothing more than a result of artificially low interest rates, money printing, and increased government spending. Real economic recovery only occurs when conditions improve across the board and return to their historical averages.¶ The jobs market, which should improve during an economic recovery, is actually stalled and tormented. The official unemployment rate has come down from 10% to 7.6% in May. But the official unemployment rate is not an accurate indicator of the jobs market, as it does not take into account the soaring rate of involuntary underemployment.¶ There is a spur of job creation in retail and other low-wage sectors, but the 4.4 million long-term unemployed in the U.S. those who have been out of work for more than six months aren't seeing robust improvements. Each month, just 10% of them find jobs, and that number hasn't changed in the last two years. (Source: Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2013.)¶ According to estimates from the Brooking Institution's Hamilton Project, after adjusting for population growth, it could take up to three years for the unemployment rate in the U.S. economy to get back to its prerecession level.¶ The fact: American consumers are the ones that drive the U.S. economy towards economic recovery. But they are struggling right now. According to a survey by Bankrate.com, 76% of Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck. The survey, with 1,000 respondents, showed that 50% had savings that wouldn't last them for three months without income and that 27% didn't have any savings at all. (Source: CNN Money, June 24, 2013.)¶ The so-called "economic recovery" is tepid at best. The U.S. economy is growing at a much slower rate than its historical average an annual pace of 2.2%, far below its decades-long average of 3.3%. (Source: Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2013.)¶ There are problems in the making for any real economic recovery. The long-term bonds rate yields are increasing very quickly. Keep in mind that the long-term bonds are used as a benchmark to price not only the mortgage rate, but also what rate the banks will charge their clients on loans. If these yields continue to skyrocket, you can expect loan rates to increase, putting businesses already struggling into greater danger which is hardly an environment of economic recovery.
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Lombardi 6/27 (Michael Lombardi, MBA for Profit Confidential, June 27, 2013, “Hard Proof There Is No Real Economic Recovery, 9News Finance http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newscolumnists/rudi/8681225/hard-proof-there-is-no-real-economic-recovery)
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What we have seen since 2009 has been nothing more than a result of artificially low interest rates, money printing, and increased government spending. Real economic recovery only occurs when conditions improve across the board and return to their historical averages The jobs market, which should improve during an economic recovery, is actually stalled and tormented the official unemployment rate is not an accurate indicator of the jobs market, as it does not take into account the soaring rate of involuntary underemployment after adjusting for population growth, it could take up to three years for the unemployment rate in the U.S. economy to get back to its prerecession level American consumers are the ones that drive the U.S. economy towards economic recovery The so-called "economic recovery" is tepid at best. The U.S. economy is growing at a much slower rate than its historical average an annual pace of 2.2%, far below its decades-long average of 3.3%. There are problems in the making for any real economic recovery. you can expect loan rates to increase, putting businesses already struggling into greater danger which is hardly an environment of economic recovery
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Lack of jobs is stalling economic recovery
| 2,754 | 42 | 1,182 | 449 | 7 | 189 | 0.01559 | 0.420935 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,187 |
Agriculture stands at the forefront of America’s economic recovery, said Michael Scuse, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Under Secretary of Food and Foreign Agricultural Services, at the 28th International Sweetener Symposium. ¶ Farmers and ranchers “have been winning the future for more than 200 years,” he said, referring to the White House’s plan to rebuild the U.S. economy around improved innovation and expanded trade. “America has much to gain from the can-do spirit and innovative nature of our producers.”¶ ¶ Scuse noted that agriculture would set new export records this year with $137 billion of goods shipped and a $40 billion trade surplus, and that strong farm policies are the key to continued success.¶ ¶ “Hopefully, the next Farm Bill will continue to provide a strong safety net for our farmers and ranchers across the United States,” he told the group. “I think the Farm Bill is working as it was designed in a responsible way.”¶ ¶ Sugar policy is recently receiving tremendous support because it operates at no cost to the federal budget. Scuse said he believed the USDA is running the policy effectively, and he believes the Department can continue to run this policy in a way that meets future demand.¶ ¶ Scuse noted that, despite tight world sugar supplies, the United States would have reasonable ending stocks. The USDA predicts that the country will end this crop year with more than 1.5 million tons of surplus sugar.
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Dr. Rob Fraley (winner of the 2013 World Food Prize for his role in revolutionary biotechnology discoveries), “Agriculture is the key to economic recovery”, agri-pulse communications, August 3rd 2012
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Agriculture stands at the forefront of America’s economic recovery Farmers and ranchers “have been winning the future for more than 200 years America has much to gain from the can-do spirit and innovative nature of our producers agriculture would set new export records this year with $137 billion of goods shipped and a $40 billion trade surplus, and that strong farm policies are the key to continued success
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Agriculture key to econ
| 1,449 | 23 | 410 | 240 | 4 | 68 | 0.016667 | 0.283333 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,188 |
The U.S. economy needs to create many more jobs before it can fully heal from the deep cuts incurred during the worst recession in generations, a top Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday. Sarah Bloom Raskin, a governor of the U.S. central bank's influential board, told a conference on employment that she was also worried about the low quality of new jobs being created.¶ The U.S. jobless rate currently stands at 7.5 percent, down from a crisis peak of 10 percent but well above the country's historical norm.¶ "The unemployment rate still remains high," said Raskin at the Roosevelt Institute event. The official unemployment figures "underestimate the scope of the problem," she added.¶ The Fed continues to support economic growth through a stimulus that entails $85 billion in monthly mortgage and Treasury purchases. After taking interest rates to zero at the end of 2008, the central bank is on track to buy more than $3 trillion in securities, more than quadrupling its balance sheet from pre-financial crisis levels.
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Reuters, June 2013 (“Fed's Raskin says U.S. needs a lot more progress on jobs”. June 4, 2013 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/04/us-usa-fed-raskin-idUSBRE9530YD20130604)
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The U.S. economy needs to create many more jobs before it can fully heal from the deep cuts incurred during the worst recession in generations Raskin, a governor of the U.S. central bank's influential board, told a conference on employment that she was also worried about the new jobs being created. The U.S. jobless rate currently stands at 7.5 percent, well above the country's historical norm. The unemployment rate still remains high . The official unemployment figures "underestimate the scope of the problem
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Increasing employment is key to economic recovery
| 1,030 | 49 | 513 | 168 | 7 | 83 | 0.041667 | 0.494048 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,189 |
The potential for a major change in U.S. policy towards Cuba has been in the news since President Obama’s April 13 announcement that the United States will begin allowing Cuban families to visit Cuba and send money to relatives there. The USA Rice Federation welcomed the president’s actions, but used the opportunity of widespread news coverage to reiterate our primary objective of full and open trade with our Caribbean neighbor.“We prefer to see the trade embargo on Cuba lifted altogether in the long run, and a return by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to the intent of Congress regarding payments for agricultural shipments in the near term,” USA Rice Chairman Jamie Warshaw said in a news release picked up by many media outlets, including Farm Press. “Another significant near-term step for the United States would be to allow direct payments from Cuban banks to U.S. financial institutions for agricultural sales,” Warshaw says. Cuba – potentially a 400,000 to 600,000 metric ton (MT) market for Southern long-grain rice producers – was the largest export market for U.S. rice prior to the 1962 embargo. Agricultural trade resumed in 2002 after Congress passed the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000 (TSREA) with U.S. rice exports to Cuba growing to 176,631.9 MT in 2004. Regulatory restrictions imposed by President Bush and implemented by the Treasury Department in 2005 obstruct agriculture’s ability to sell competitively to Cuba by “reinterpreting” the cash-in-advance clause so that Cuba has to pay for its rice shipments before they leave U.S. ports. The tighter rules caused U.S. rice exports to fall dramatically in 2008 to 12,620.4 MT. Items specifically supported in the 111th Congress
When USA Rice submitted its industry trade priorities to the then-Obama transition team for the Office of U.S. Trade Representative, one of our top priorities was to restore normal commercial relations with Cuba. We have made trade with Cuba such a high priority because it is an ideal market for us. Cuba produces only one-fifth of its rice consumption needs, but has the highest per-capita consumption rate in the Western Hemisphere – almost 150 pounds per person annually – more than five times the consumption in the United States. To make up the difference, Cuba imports 600,000 MT of rice per year, making it one of the world’s top rice importers. Logistics favor Southern U.S. exporters, and Cubans prefer the quality of U.S. rice. Under fair, open and two-way trade (allowing Cuba to generate foreign exchange), we estimate Cuba would quickly become the second-largest market for U.S. rice.
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Betsy Ward
(USA Rice Federation
President and CEO) 2009 “Federation Presses For Reopening Rice Trade with Cuba” http://www.ricefarming.com/home/issues/2009/2009_MayUSARiceFed.html
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The potential for a major change in U.S. policy towards Cuba has been in the news since President Obama’s announcement that the United States will begin allowing Cuban families to visit Cuba and send money to relatives there. The USA Rice Federation welcomed the president’s actions, but used the opportunity of widespread news coverage to reiterate our primary objective of full and open trade with our Caribbean neighbor We prefer to see the trade embargo on Cuba lifted altogether in the long run ,” USA Rice Chairman Jamie Warshaw said “Another significant near-term step for the United States would be to allow direct payments from Cuban banks to U.S. financial institutions for agricultural sales, – potentially a 400,000 to 600,000 metric ton (MT) market for Southern long-grain rice producers – . The tighter rules caused U.S. rice exports to fall dramatically in 2008 we estimate Cuba would quickly become the second-largest market for U.S. rice.
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Agriculture restrictions on Cuba cost the rice industry over 3 billion dollars and many jobs.
| 2,662 | 93 | 955 | 429 | 15 | 155 | 0.034965 | 0.361305 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
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Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,190 |
Rice farmers in particular have a great deal at stake in the legislation. Even under the Bush administration, they were able to ship some rice to Cuba, but the amount depended on how strictly the Treasury Department interpreted financing restrictions. In 2004, rice producers in the United States shipped $64 million worth of rice to Cuba. After the administration more stringently applied rules requiring advance cash payment, rice exports dropped to $24 million in 2007. In 2008 they were less than $7 million, and in 2009, rice farmers sent nothing. Cuba gets much of its rice from Southeast Asia, and farmers believe the Cubans would be quick to switch to American suppliers to cut down on shipping time and freight costs. “They could consume the entire rice crop of Texas and part of Louisiana,” Mr. Mowery said. The USA Rice Federation estimates that if export restrictions were lifted, American farmers could eventually send 400,000 to 600,000 metric tons of rice to Cuba every year.
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Yeganeh June Torbati, 7-13-2010, "Farm Groups Push Congress to Ease Exports to Cuba," New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/14/us/politics/14cuba.html?_r=0, accessed 5-10-2013
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Rice farmers have a great deal at stake In 2004, rice producers shipped $64 million worth of rice to Cuba. in 2009, rice farmers sent nothing Cuba gets much of its rice from Southeast Asia, and farmers believe the Cubans would be quick to switch to American suppliers to cut down on shipping time and freight costs. They could consume the entire rice crop of Texas and part of Louisiana
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Lifting the embargo is key to US rice exports – worth millions
| 990 | 62 | 386 | 164 | 12 | 70 | 0.073171 | 0.426829 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
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Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,191 |
Prior to the 1962 embargo, Cuba was the top export destination for U.S.-grown rice. In 2000, Congress passed legislation that permitted U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba and rice sales to the island nation totaled 635,000 MT between 2002 and 2006. However, this legislation codified restrictions on other commercial activities and maintained existing U.S. restrictions on imports from Cuba. A rule tightening in 2005 crippled U.S. exports to Cuba and there have been no U.S. rice sales since 2008. Cubans consume nearly 1 million metric tons of rice annually, which is among the highest consumption rates in the Americas. Sixty percent of the rice consumed in Cuba is imported from other countries. Ward highlighted the commitment of USA Rice to opening the market in Cuba, including being the first U.S. entity to exhibit at a Havana Trade Fair in 2001. She reiterated the rice industry's long-standing position to normalize trade and travel between the two countries. Ward predicted a very limited modification of U.S.-Cuba trade policy over the next year given the reluctance of some members of Congress and the administration to take bold action in an election year.
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Western Farm Press Oct 28 2011 “Cuba could become largest U.S. Rice Market Overnight?” http://westernfarmpress.com/government/cuba-could-become-largest-us-rice-market-overnight
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Prior to the 1962 embargo, Cuba was the top export destination for U.S.-grown rice A rule tightening in 2005 crippled U.S. exports to Cuba and there have been no U.S. rice sales since 2008. Cubans consume nearly 1 million metric tons of rice annually, which is among the highest consumption rates in the Americas. Sixty percent of the rice consumed in Cuba is imported from other countries. She reiterated the rice industry's long-standing position to normalize trade and travel between the two countries
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Current restrictions hamper the rice industry by eliminating a key market.
| 1,177 | 74 | 506 | 188 | 11 | 83 | 0.058511 | 0.441489 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
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Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,192 |
Cuba was the number one destination market for the U.S. rice industry until the embargo was imposed. U.S. rice trade to Cuba started afresh after President Clinton authorized the sale of humanitarian products including food to Cuba in 2000, however the U.S. Treasury requires the sales must be prepaid. Cubans are perpetually short of dollars and after buying U.S. rice for several years have more or less given up on the U.S. origin, turning instead to Vietnam and sometimes China mostly because of Vietnamese willingness to extend credit to Cuba. Recently, Venezuelans have been talking about financing Argentine rice sales to Cuba.
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Oryza News on September 14,2011 Cuba, Once the Largest U.S. Rice Market, Says Embargo Cost One Trillion Dollars! http://oryzamarket.com/Rice-News/13081.html
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Cuba was the number one destination market for the U.S. rice industry until the embargo was imposed Cubans are perpetually short of dollars and after buying U.S. rice for several years have more or less given up on the U.S. origin, turning instead to Vietnam and sometimes China mostly because of Vietnamese willingness to extend credit to Cuba. Recently, Venezuelans have been talking about financing Argentine rice sales to Cuba.
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US at risk of losing out completely on the rice market in Cuba to other nations because of agricultural restrictions
| 634 | 116 | 431 | 102 | 20 | 70 | 0.196078 | 0.686275 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,193 |
The March announcement that a rice mill will import milled rice from Vietnam for packaged use in the United States is clanging an alarm bell — one the U.S. rice industry must respond to with purposeful action, not just words.¶ USA Rice Federation joined with producer voices throughout the growing regions to register its disappointment and concern. But the fact is, this is a private commercial decision, much like the economic choice of which crops a farmer will plant or their right to sell domestically or export to foreign mills – and it is a wake-up call from the market that rice imports are no longer about specialty varieties like jasmine or basmati or brokens for pet food.¶ The challenge is broader than Vietnam or the United States. Rice from Vietnam has appeared in Haiti — the second-largest individual country market for U.S. rice. Pakistan is exporting milled rice to Mexico, the number one U.S. market, and some reports indicate potential Vietnam sales to Mexico as well. With mounting evidence that these challenges to traditionally strong export markets for U.S. rice will continue, the U.S. rice industry has to take action.
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AgFax. 2013 Rice Industry Needs Continued Action to Challenge Rising Competition - See more at: http://agfax.com/2013/05/29/rice-industry-needs-continued-action-to-challenge-rising-competition/#sthash.2egzDjDl.dpuf
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rice imports are no longer about specialty varieties like jasmine or basmati or brokens for pet food.¶ The challenge is broader than Vietnam or the United States. Rice from Vietnam has appeared in Haiti the second-largest individual country market for U.S. rice. Pakistan is exporting milled rice to Mexico, the number one U.S. market, and some reports indicate potential Vietnam sales to Mexico as we With mounting evidence that these challenges to traditionally strong export markets for U.S. rice will continue, the U.S. rice industry has to take action.
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Rice industry is on the brink – beginning to lose hold on the market.
| 1,144 | 69 | 557 | 191 | 14 | 89 | 0.073298 | 0.465969 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,194 |
With the productivity of U.S. agriculture growing faster than domestic food and fiber demand, U.S. farmers and agricultural firms rely heavily on export markets to sustain prices and revenues. Historically, U.S. imports have increased steadily, as demand for diversification in food expands. U.S. consumers benefit from imports because imports expand food variety, stabilize year-round supplies of fresh fruits and vegetables, and temper increases in food prices.¶ U.S. agricultural exports have been larger than U.S. agricultural imports since 1960, generating a surplus in U.S. agricultural trade. This surplus helps counter the persistent deficit in nonagricultural U.S. merchandise trade (see data table Value of U.S. trade-agricultural, nonagricultural, and total by fiscal year or calendar year ). Even if there were a trade deficit in agricultural products, this does not imply a lack of competitiveness on the part of U.S. agriculture. Rather, it reflects increasing diversity in consumers' food choices and changing relative exchange rates, which make U.S. goods relatively more/less expensive in international markets and import goods relatively less/more expensive.¶ ERS provides research and analysis on factors influencing U.S. agricultural exports and imports.
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Macdonald 3/5 (Stephen MacDonald, agricultural economist for the United States Department of Agriculture, March 5, 2013, “US Agricultural Trade: Overview” the US Dept. of Agriculture Economic Research Service. http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/international-markets-trade/us-agricultural-trade.aspx#.UcxZMvmsim4)
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With the productivity of U.S. agriculture growing faster than domestic food and fiber demand, U.S. farmers and agricultural firms rely heavily on export markets to sustain prices and revenues. U.S. consumers benefit from imports because imports expand food variety, stabilize year-round supplies of fresh fruits and vegetables, and temper increases in food prices. U.S. agricultural exports have been larger than U.S. agricultural imports since 1960, generating a surplus in U.S. agricultural trade. This surplus helps counter the persistent deficit in nonagricultural U.S. merchandise trade
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The agriculture sector relies on exports and makes up for the deficit in other sectors
| 1,275 | 86 | 591 | 181 | 15 | 84 | 0.082873 | 0.464088 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,195 |
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. trade deficit widened in April, as demand for foreign cars, cell phones and other imported goods outpaced growth in U.S. exports.¶ The Commerce Department said Tuesday that the trade gap rose 8.5% in April from March to $40.3 billion.¶ Exports increased 1.2% to $187.4 billion, the second-highest level on record. Companies sold more telecommunications equipment, industrial machinery and airplane parts, while U.S.-made autos and auto parts also rose to an all-time high of $12.8 billion.¶ But imports grew an even faster 2.4% to $227.7 billion. Sales of foreign cars increased to $25.5 billion. Americans also bought more consumer goods, led by big gain in foreign-made cell phones.¶ The report showed a weaker global economy continues to reduce demand for U.S. exports. That's likely to weigh on growth in the April-June quarter.¶ A wider trade gap can restrain growth because it means U.S. consumers and businesses are spending more on foreign goods than U.S. companies are taking in from overseas sales.
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USA Today June 4 2013 U.S. trade deficit up 8.5% to $40.3 billion http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/06/04/us-trade-deficit-up/2387697/
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The U.S. trade deficit widened in April The Commerce Department said Tuesday that the trade gap rose 8.5% in April from March to $40.3 billion The report showed a weaker global economy continues to reduce demand for U.S. exports. That's likely to weigh on growth in the April-June quarter A wider trade gap can restrain growth because it means U.S. consumers and businesses are spending more on foreign goods than U.S. companies are taking in from overseas sales.
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Widening trade deficit is restraining US economic recovery.
| 1,035 | 59 | 463 | 165 | 8 | 78 | 0.048485 | 0.472727 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,196 |
¶ America has tallied a $6.75 trillion net exports deficit since 2000. No matter your view on American trade policy, $6.75 trillion in reduced GDP cost this country the equivalent of over 3% in annual growth for over a decade and millions of potential jobs.¶ ¶ Net exports are the value of a nation’s total exports minus its total imports one of the components used in measuring gross domestic product.¶ ¶ GDP = C + I + G + Net exports¶ ¶ For decades, economic analysts have disagreed over the impact of net exports on a nation’s financial well being. Some economists believe that a trade surplus creates employment and increases GDP growth. Others believe that the balance of trade has little impact.¶ ¶ America has not had a trade surplus since 1974. The following chart based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division traces the recent history of America’s trade deficit.¶ Since 1974 our nation’s gross domestic product has been fighting a losing battle against net exports. America’s downward slide in net exports peaked in 2005 when it had a 6% impact on gross domestic product. Yet many leading economists consider net exports a non-issue, citing the fact excluding crude oil imports the nation’s trade balance today in nominal dollars is similar to what we experienced a decade ago.To put a little perspective on how large our $6.5 trillion net export deficit has been since 2000, the national debt’s growth over the same period was $9 trillion and some consider that a crisis.¶ ¶ America’s trade policy continues to be a political football. It has been blamed for the loss of our middle classes manufacturing and industrial base sighting our massive deferential in net goods balance. Alternately, it has been noted as a vast possible expansion of our service sector as realized in our growing net exports.¶ ¶ Regardless of your view on America trade policy, our nation continues to face a significant reduction in GDP due to our net export balance. What policies we take to reduce or better yet reverse our net export balance into a trade surplus are likely to be major factors in the strength of America’s economic recovery.
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Rick Mathews 2012 US Trade Deficit: How Our Negative Balance of Trade is Harming the Recovery http://www.policymic.com/articles/15337/us-trade-deficit-how-our-negative-balance-of-trade-is-harming-the-recovery
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America has tallied a $6.75 trillion net exports deficit since 2000 $6.75 trillion in reduced GDP cost this country the equivalent of over 3% in annual growth for over a decade and millions of potential jobs Regardless of your view on America trade policy, our nation continues to face a significant reduction in GDP due to our net export balance What policies we take to reduce or better yet reverse our net export balance into a trade surplus are likely to be major factors in the strength of America’s economic recovery
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Reducing the trade deficit is critical to strengthening US economic recovery.
| 2,150 | 77 | 522 | 367 | 11 | 91 | 0.029973 | 0.247956 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,197 |
The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in April 2013 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $37.1 billion (revised) in March to $40.3 billion in April as imports increased more than exports. The previously published March deficit was $38.8 billion. The goods deficit increased $3.2 billion from March to $58.6 billion in April; the services surplus increased $0.1 billion from March to $18.3 billion Exports¶ Exports of goods and services increased $2.2 billion in April to $187.4 billion mostly reflecting an increase in exports of goods. Exports of services also increased. • The largest increases in exports of goods were in consumer goods and in capital goods. • The largest increases in exports of services were in other private services, which includes items such as business, professional, and technical services, insurance services, and financial services, and in travel.¶ Imports Imports of goods and services increased $5.4 billion in April to $227.7 billion mostly reflecting an increase in imports of goods. Imports of services also increased. • The largest increases in imports of goods were in consumer goods, in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines, and in capital goods. • The largest increases in imports of services were in other transportation, which includes freight and port services, and in travel.
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Bureau of Economic Analysis 6/4, (US Department of Commerce, June 4, 2013, “April 2013 Trade Gap is $40.3 Billion” the Bureau of Economic Analysis http://blog.bea.gov/category/trade-deficit/)
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The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in April 2013 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $37.1 billion (revised) in March to $40.3 billion in April as imports increased more than exports. The goods deficit increased $3.2 billion from March to $58.6 billion in April; the services surplus increased $0.1 billion from March to $18.3 billion The largest increases in exports of goods were in consumer goods and in capital goods. Imports of goods and services increased $5.4 billion in April to $227.7 billion mostly reflecting an increase in imports of goods. Imports of services also increased
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The trade deficit is on the rise.
| 1,405 | 33 | 676 | 219 | 7 | 108 | 0.031963 | 0.493151 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,198 |
The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) is seeking to obtain approval for exports to Cuba from all federally-inspected U.S. beef and pork plants. USMEF is in the process of putting together funding to bring two Cuban government veterinarians to the U.S. in the first quarter of 2003. The veterinarians will tour U.S. packing plants and processing facilities with the aim of obtaining a system-wide endorsement that will allow exports to Cuba following the relaxation of U.S. restrictions on trade with the Caribbean nation. In 2000, the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act reauthorized the export of food and agricultural products from the U.S. to Cuba, and the first shipments from the U.S. arrived in Cuba in December 2001. Under U.S. law, U.S. companies may export beef and pork to Cuba, although Cuba is a restricted country requiring exporter licensing, and exporting to Cuba would not be as straightforward as exporting to Mexico or Russia. U.S. suppliers could export meat to Cuba through independent importers or to the national food distribution center, Cobalsi. The meat would then be sold in government meat shops, small supermarkets, or restaurants. USMEF now plans to help make this a reality by obtaining Cuban government approval of U.S. plants. Once that approval is in place, USMEF will lead a team of U.S. packers and traders to Cuba so they can see the market and make their own determination of its potential. Although Cuba is a developing market with limited purchasing power, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates that if there were no restrictions on U.S. sales to Cuba, U.S. agricultural exports would reach $300 million dollars per year. This figure could grow to $1 billion per year within five years, according to FAS. Of course, U.S. exporters would look first to Cuba‘s growing tourism industry – offering high-quality beef and pork items to resort hotels and restaurants. Pork and beef offal and cheaper muscle cuts also show promise in the local markets. The Cuban population favors pork, with primary opportunities for U.S. sales in pork trimmings, pork fat, shoulders and mechanically deboned product. Cuba is the largest nation in the Caribbean with a youthful population of more than 11 million, 90 percent of whom are under 65, but its potential as a market for U.S. beef and pork is difficult to assess. In 2001, Cuba imported about $750 million in food and agricultural products from a number of countries, including Canada and Mexico. For protein, most Cubans eat fish and beans, and, to a lesser extent, pork, beef and poultry. Current per capita consumption of meat is less than that of comparable countries in the region and would certainly rise if the market is opened to competitively priced imports from the United States. Interest in Cuba has revived this year in the wake of changes in U.S. law and the first-ever U.S. food show in Cuba, the Food & Agribusiness Exhibition in Havana, in September 2002, attended by 15 USMEF members and USMEF Western Hemisphere Vice President Homero Recio. The show was well attended by Cuban officials, including longtime president, Fidel Castro, Cuban business people, and Alimport, the Cuban government agency responsible for importing food from the USA. Recio distributed literature on U.S. beef, pork and processed meats, made trade contacts and began the process of understanding the needs of the Cuban meat market. During the five-day trade show, $80 million dollars worth of agricultural products were sold to Cuban buyers. Under U.S. law, all transactions had to receive a license from the Department of Commerce and be paid in cash. “There are great opportunities especially for U.S. pork at both the foodservice and retail levels,” Recio concluded. “U.S. beef will find buyers in the tourist industry and the U.S. dollar stores found throughout Cuba, and U.S. beef variety meats such as liver could penetrate both the local and tourist business.” The greatest challenge will be to teach Cuban buyers the value of high quality U.S. meat products. USMEF is considering future educational programs for Cuba. “With the final lifting of the embargo,” according to Recio, “great opportunities for U.S. beef, pork and processed meats will intensify in the tourist sector, the dollar store supermarkets and the meat processors.” Recio was one of 10 U.S. agriculture representatives who attended a four-hour private luncheon with Castro on Sunday, September 29. Castro asked many questions about American agriculture, and Recio presented him with a USMEF International Meat Manual and other educational materials regarding U.S. pork and beef. Cuban Production and Imports Cuba imported approximately 8,000 metric tons of pork and 4,000 metric tons of beef last year. Canada and the EU are Cuba’s primary suppliers. The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated Cuba’s 1999 hog stocks at 2.4 million head, almost unchanged from 1990 (2.5 million head). According to FAO, pork production in Cuba peaked in the early 1990s and has stagnated at around 73,000 metric tons annually since 1995. The slowdown of hog/pork production, a smaller cattle herd, increasing tourist trade and a consumer preference for pork over beef has led to an increase in pork imports since 1997. Cuba imported pork from at least 16 countries over the past 10 years. The European Union and Mexico were Cuba’s main suppliers, but Canada has steadily gained market share and now accounts for about 80 percent of Cuba’s pork imports. Canada’s fresh and frozen pork sales to Cuba rose from $3.0 million in 1997 to $5.9 million in1999. Ham cuts account for nearly 60 percent of Canada’s pork shipments to Cuba and this trade has increased steadily. Loin cuts also jumped and are expected to hold at the higher level. The U.S. Meat Export Federation is the trade association responsible for developing international markets for the U.S. red meat industry and is funded by USDA, exporting companies, and the beef, pork, corn, sorghum and soybean checkoff programs.
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US Meat Federation (Chief US Meat exporter) “The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) is seeking to obtain approval for exp…” Jan 2013 http://www.usmef.org/news-statistics/press-releases/the-us-meat-export-federation-usmef-is-seeking-to-obtain-approval-for-exp-13491/
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The U.S. Meat Export Federation is seeking to obtain approval for exports to Cuba from all federally-inspected U.S. beef Under U.S. law, U.S. companies may export beef and pork to Cuba, although Cuba is a restricted country requiring exporter licensing, and exporting to Cuba would not be as straightforward as exporting to Mexico or Russia. U.S. suppliers could export meat to Cuba through independent importers or to the national food distribution center Although Cuba is a developing market with limited purchasing power, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimates that if there were no restrictions on U.S. sales to Cuba, U.S. agricultural exports would reach $300 million dollars per year. This figure could grow to $1 billion per year within five years, according to FAS. great opportunities for U.S. beef, pork and processed meats will intensify Cuba imported approximately 8,000 metric tons of pork and 4,000 metric tons of beef last year.
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Lifting agriculture restrictions on Cuba could massively increase the beef and pork industries in the United States.
| 6,065 | 116 | 952 | 983 | 17 | 151 | 0.017294 | 0.153611 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
|
Missouri State (MSDI)
|
Affirmatives
|
2013
|
2,199 |
Gross receipts from sales of cattle and calves in 2000 totaled $40.76 billion accounting of 21% of all agricultural receipts making the beef sector the largest single agricultural enterprise. In addition to the backward linkage effects of purchased inputs (Table 1) by beef producers, forward linkages can be traced to the slaughter and processing level for impact on the national economy. Data from the American Meat Institute indicate that, on average, the cost of live animals represents about 89 percent of the total value of the processor’s product (AMI). The remaining margin is for other inputs including labor and return on investment. The final demand uses of processed cattle products are an estimated 2.52 billion pounds going into foreign markets and 24.25 billion pounds into domestic markets. These estimates for the various dimensions of the U.S. beef industry at the producer and processor level represent the direct component of the industry with the production inputs purchased by these sectors representing the indirect effects. In addition to these obvious producer and input supplying impacts, income earned in these agriculturally-related components of the beef industry is spent in the rest of the economy stimulating a wide range of sectors, including consumer-related businesses in urban areas. To identify and estimate these multiplier effects, an Input-Output (I-O) model is developed for the United States and used in this portion of the study. The I-O model used is based on the IMPLAN system developed initially by the U.S. Forest Service. An I-O model is basically a general accounting system of the transactions taking place between industries, businesses and consumers in an economy. The estimates of outputs from the cattle sector are matched against USDA estimates of marketings and the level of estimated inputs used are matched against livestock budgets based on average technology (Figure 6). The basic scenario in this analysis looks at the overall importance and contribution of the beef industry to the U.S. economy based on the current situation in the U.S. beef industry. This perspective identifies and estimates values associated with the backwards and forward linkages in the U.S. beef industry. The results of the I-O analysis are presented in Table 2 with estimates of total output, personal income, value-added, and employment presented at a 10 sector level of detail. This table of a baseline scenario for the nation’s cattle industry includes related economic activity from inputs provided to the producers through the processing level. The key indicators of economic activity reported include total industry output, total income, value-added, and employment. Total industry output measures total dollars of goods and services produced by an industry, including government and non-government activity. The estimated $41 billion of gross output from beef production activity supports an additional $147.4 billion of economic output for a total of $188.4 billion of direct and indirect economic activity throughout the U.S. economy. While much of the impact is concentrated in the agricultural sectors, the personal income linkages in the economy results in major economic effects also being distributed in the services and trade sectors. Total personal income is a composite of wage and salary income and proprietary income. This more comprehensive measure of income is chosen because most farm income is reported as proprietor’s income. The estimate of $7.8 billion of direct income to beef producers is linked to an additional $38.6 billion of income throughout the U.S. economy for a total impact of $46.4 billion of personal income. Again, the service and retailing sectors receive strong stimulus from the initial effect of income earned in the beef sector. Total value-added measures the total gain in economic activity resulting from production of goods or services. Wages, salaries, taxes, and profits are included in the value-added measure. The value-added measure is a good indicator of net economic activity as only the net incremental value is summed at each transaction to avoid double counting. The estimated $19.1 billion of value-added for beef production is linked to $55.4 billion of additional indirect and induced value added to the U.S. economy. Total value added related to the U.S. beef industry is an estimated $74 billion. Employment is based on a per job unit consistent with the definitions used by the U.S. Commerce Department. The employment levels are likely to be nearly full-time equivalents for the manufacturing and production oriented jobs. Retail and service sector positions tend to involve many part-time positions. Based on aggregate budgets for the total hours of labor required to produce 36.2 million head of calves including over 28.1 million fed cattle per year an estimated 212,000 direct jobs are involved in beef producing activities including farm workers as well as farm proprietors. This 212,000 be interpreted as full-time equivalent positions, although many operators are in cattle production on a less than full-time basis. As indicated in Table 2, these direct jobs at the farm level support an additional 1.21 million jobs throughout the rest of the economy, or a total of 1.42 million direct and secondary jobs. The distribution of impacts is similar to the pattern for the other indicators in that effects are present in all sectors. The service sector provided the largest number of secondary jobs followed by Finance, Insurance and Real Estate and Retailing. The higher number of jobs in services, combined with the lower levels of income, suggests that many of these jobs are less than full-time. Estimates of the impacts of the U.S. beef industry shown in Table 2 include forward linkages into the meatpacking industry. By moving past the farmgate, additional economic activities including the transportation, processing, and handling are captured in the economic model and presented in the estimates. The direct employment estimates for cattle processing in the I-O model are consistent with secondary sources such as County Business Patterns. Since cattle processing and slaughtering facilities tend to be located near the source of raw materials, this stage of the beef industry has the additional benefit of providing needed jobs in rural labor markets.
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Dan Otto and John Lawrence, Professor and Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Iowa State University 2000 “economic impact of the united states beef industry”
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. estimated $41 billion of gross output from beef production activity supports an additional $147.4 billion of economic output for a total of $188.4 billion of direct and indirect economic activity throughout the U.S. economy. , the personal income linkages in the economy results in major economic effects also being distributed in the services and trade sectors. This comprehensive measure of income is chosen because most farm income is reported as proprietor’s income. The estimate of $7.8 billion of direct income to beef producers is linked to an additional $38.6 billion of income throughout the U.S. economy for a total impact of $46.4 billion of personal income. The estimated $19.1 billion of value-added for beef production is linked to $55.4 billion of additional indirect and induced value added to the U.S. economy. Total value added related to the U.S. beef industry is an estimated $74 billion. an estimated 212,000 direct jobs are involved in beef producing activities including farm workers as well as farm proprietors.
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Beef industry is key to the US economy
| 6,369 | 38 | 1,037 | 992 | 8 | 165 | 0.008065 | 0.166331 |
Cuba Agriculture Affirmative - MSDI 2013.html5
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Missouri State (MSDI)
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Affirmatives
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2013
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