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Despite an escalation in drug violence and thousands of people killed in drug-related murders in Mexico in recent years, Mexico's economy and the tourism industry are thriving, says CFR's Mexico expert, Shannon K. O'Neil. "Mexico was the hardest hit in Latin America" as a result of the global financial crisis, she says, "but it's recovered quite quickly, and in part it's been due to a huge boom in manufacturing along the border tied to U.S. companies and to U.S. consumers." On the contentious issue of Mexican immigrants in the United States, she says fewer Mexicans are immigrating to the United States because of a burgeoning economy and a demographic shift. More broadly, one reason the two countries have failed to find a solution, she says, is because while Mexicans see immigration as a foreign policy issue, the United States continues to treat it as a domestic one. There have been reports about Mexico's thriving economy amid continuing drug violence. Does this sort of ambivalence truly exist in Mexico right now? It is true. Mexico is a place that's seen a huge escalation in violence. Under President Felipe Calderon over the last five years, we've seen almost 50,000 people killed in drug-related murders. But at the same time, Mexico's economy has actually been doing quite well since the end of the global recession. Mexico was the hardest hit in Latin America but it's recovered quite quickly, and in part it's been due to a huge boom in manufacturing along the border tied to U.S. companies and to U.S. consumers. We've seen a boom in tourism. There have been record levels of tourists over the last year in Mexico--to its beaches, to its colonial cities, and to Mexico City. And we've also seen the benefit of high oil prices as Mexico still produces a good amount of oil and much of it for the United States.
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O’Neill 12 [Shannon O’Neill; February 20, 2012; Mexico's Burgeoning Economy Amid Drug Violence; Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at Council on Foreign Relations; http://www.cfr.org/mexico/mexicos-burgeoning-economy-amid-drug-violence/p27386]
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Despite an escalation in drug violence Mexico's economy and the tourism industry are thriving "Mexico was the hardest hit in Latin America" as a result of the global financial crisis, she says, "but it's recovered quite quickly, and in part it's been due to a huge boom in manufacturing fewer Mexicans are immigrating to the United States because of a burgeoning economy and a demographic shift. while Mexicans see immigration as a foreign policy issue, the United States continues to treat it as a domestic one. There have been reports about Mexico's thriving economy amid continuing drug violence. Does this sort of ambivalence truly exist in Mexico right now? It is true. Mexico is a place that's seen a huge escalation in violence We've seen a boom in tourism. There have been record levels of tourists over the last year in Mexico--to its beaches, to its colonial cities, and to Mexico City. And we've also seen the benefit of high oil prices
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Aff doesn’t boost legal immigration – Mexican economy is doing too well
| 1,832 | 71 | 947 | 314 | 12 | 162 | 0.038217 | 0.515924 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,001 |
For years, one of the groups pushing hardest for immigration reform has been the U.S. food industry. Farmers have long grumbled about a shortage of labor, and they’ve asked for policies that make it easier to hire foreign workers from places like Mexico. Getting harder and harder to find. (John Moore – Getty Images) But looser immigration laws may not be able to keep our food cheap forever. A recent study suggests that U.S. farms could well face a shortage of low-cost labor in the years ahead no matter what Congress does on immigration. That’s because Mexico is getting richer and can no longer supply as many rural farm workers to the United States. And it won’t be nearly as easy to import low-wage agricultural workers from elsewhere.
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Plumer 13 [Brad Plumer; January 29, 2013; We’re running out of farm workers. Immigration reform won’t help; Brad Plumer is a writer for the Washington Post and he cites Edward Taylor a agricultural economist at UC Davis; http://www.washingtonpost.com/brad-plumer/2011/07/28/gIQAPrqSfI_page.html]
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Farmers have long grumbled about a shortage of labor, and they’ve asked for policies that make it easier to hire foreign workers from places like Mexico. Getting harder and harder to find But looser immigration laws may not be able to keep our food cheap forever. A recent study suggests that U.S. farms could well face a shortage of low-cost labor in the years ahead no matter what Congress does on immigration. That’s because Mexico is getting richer and can no longer supply as many rural farm workers to the United States.
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It doesn’t matter what the Aff does – the agriculture worker shortage is a result of a rich Mexico
| 743 | 98 | 526 | 128 | 19 | 92 | 0.148438 | 0.71875 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,002 |
For decades, farms in the United States have relied heavily on low-wage foreign workers — mainly from Mexico — to work their fields. In 2006, 77 percent of all agricultural workers in the United States were foreign-born. (And half of those foreign workers were undocumented immigrants.) All that cheap labor has helped keep down U.S. food prices, particularly for labor-intensive fruits and vegetables. But that labor pool is now drying up. In recent years, we’ve seen a spate of headlines like this from CNBC: “California Farm Labor Shortage ‘Worst It’s Been, Ever’.” Typically, these stories blame drug-related violence on the Mexican border or tougher border enforcement for the decline. Hence the call for new guest-worker programs. But a new paper from U.C. Davis offers up a simpler explanation for the labor shortage. Mexico is getting richer. And, when a country gets richer, its pool of rural agricultural labor shrinks. Not only are Mexican workers shifting into other sectors like construction, but Mexico’s own farms are increasing wages. That means U.S. farms will have to pay higher and higher wages to attract a dwindling pool of available Mexican farm workers. “It’s a simple story,” says Edward Taylor, an agricultural economist at U.C. Davis and one of the study’s authors. ”By the mid-twentieth century, Americans stopped doing farm work. And we were only able to avoid a farm-labor crisis by bringing in workers from a nearby country that was at an earlier stage of development. Now that era is coming to an end.” Taylor and his co-authors argue that the United States could face a sharp adjustment period as a result. Americans appear unwilling to do the sort of low-wage farm work that we have long relied on immigrants to do. And, the paper notes, it may be difficult to find an abundance of cheap farm labor anywhere else — potential targets such as Guatemala and El Salvador are either too small or are urbanizing too rapidly.
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Plumer 13 [Brad Plumer; January 29, 2013; We’re running out of farm workers. Immigration reform won’t help; Brad Plumer is a writer for the Washington Post and he cites Edward Taylor a agricultural economist at UC Davis; http://www.washingtonpost.com/brad-plumer/2011/07/28/gIQAPrqSfI_page.html]
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For decades, farms in the United States have relied heavily on low-wage foreign workers — mainly from Mexico — to work their fields. But that labor pool is now drying up. In recent years, we’ve seen a spate of headlines like this from CNBC: “California Farm Labor Shortage ‘Worst It’s Been, Ever’.” Typically, these stories blame drug-related violence on the Mexican border or tougher border enforcement for the decline. Hence the call for new guest-worker programs. But a new paper from U.C. Davis offers up a simpler explanation for the labor shortage. Mexico is getting richer. And, when a country gets richer, its pool of rural agricultural labor shrinks. Not only are Mexican workers shifting into other sectors like construction, but Mexico’s own farms are increasing wages. That means U.S. farms will have to pay higher and higher wages to attract a dwindling pool of available Mexican farm workers “It’s a simple story,” says Edward Taylor, an agricultural economist at U.C. Davis and one of the study’s authors. ”By the mid-twentieth century, Americans stopped doing farm work. And we were only able to avoid a farm-labor crisis by bringing in workers from a nearby country that was at an earlier stage of development. Now that era is coming to an end. Taylor and his co-authors argue that the United States could face a sharp adjustment period as a result. Americans appear unwilling to do the sort of low-wage farm work that we have long relied on immigrants to do. And, the paper notes, it may be difficult to find an abundance of cheap farm labor anywhere else
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Ag labor shortage is because of a good Mexican economy – immigration reform is irrelevant
| 1,951 | 89 | 1,573 | 325 | 15 | 267 | 0.046154 | 0.821538 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,003 |
Agriculture economist Ed Taylor at the University of California, Davis, says that decline has little to do with U.S. immigration policy. Taylor's research suggests that declining birth rates in rural Mexico, where the economy has also improved in recent years, is the reason why fewer migrants are coming to the U.S. And since farms in Mexico have also expanded to meet the year-round produce demands north of the border, why risk going north? "Many [American] farmers also have this sense that, if Washington can just get its house in order and pass immigration reform, their problems will be over, and that isn't what our research is showing," Taylor says. Farms here are going to have to learn how to do more with less immigrant labor, Taylor says. That means switching to less labor-intensive crops, or mechanization.
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Siegler 4/30 [Kirk Siegler; April 30, 2013; Why An Immigration Deal Won't Solve The Farmworker Shortage; Siegler is a correspondent for NPR specializing in immigration policy http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2013/04/30/180053057/why-an-immigration-deal-wont-solve-the-farmworker-shortage]
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Agriculture economist Ed Taylor at the University of California, Davis, says that decline has little to do with U.S. immigration policy. Taylor's research suggests that declining birth rates in rural Mexico, where the economy has also improved in recent years, is the reason why fewer migrants are coming to the U.S. why risk going north? "Many [American] farmers also have this sense that, if Washington can just get its house in order and pass immigration reform, their problems will be over, and that isn't what our research is showing Farms here are going to have to learn how to do more with less immigrant labor
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US immigration policy isn’t key – Mexicans don’t want to come to the US any more
| 821 | 80 | 617 | 136 | 16 | 105 | 0.117647 | 0.772059 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,004 |
. A. Sovereignty The international legal system is organized around the idea of sovereign nation-states: legal entities defined by mutual recognition and by the government’s exclusive control of a geographic territory and its population.9The concepts of borders and territorial closure are at the heart of this definition — states are defined by their ability to identify their own citizens and to exclude others.1° The norm of sovereignty — the right of states to close their territory — is an important check on migration collaboration. At the global level, sovereignty means that international migration laws and institutions such as the 1951 UN Convention on Refugees and the International Labor Organization make no binding demands on whom states admit or how visa policies are structured. The recognition of migration policy as a sovereign domestic issue also makes countries of origin reluctant to place migration on the agenda for bilateral or regional negotiations, because doing so may broaden the scope of negotiations to include sensitive political questions that they prefer to leave outside the scope of international negotiations, such as policies related to their own human rights conditions or internal political processes.
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Rosenblum 11 (Marc R., Marc Rosenblum is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of New Orleans, B.A. in political science at Columbia University and Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, San Diego, “Obstacles and Opportunities For Regional Cooperation: The US-Mexico Case, April 2011, http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/usmexico-cooperation.pdf\\CLans)
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A. Sovereignty al entities defined by mutual recognition and by the government’s exclusive control of a geographic territory and its populatio states are defined by their ability to identify their own citizens and to exclude others the right of states to close their territory is an important check on migration collaboration . The recognition of migration policy as a sovereign domestic issue also makes countries of origin reluctant to place migration on the agenda
|
Aff can’t solve- sovereignty disagreements
| 1,240 | 43 | 467 | 189 | 5 | 74 | 0.026455 | 0.391534 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,005 |
B. Divergent Preferences The structure of global migration systems ensures that migrant-sending and receiving countries often disagree about core migration policy issues. First, even though migration partners usually have complementary demographics, as in the US-Mexico case, demographic complementarities are rarely perfect, which means source and destination countries typically disagree about the ideal number of immigrants and the distribution of migrants’ skills and human capital. Labor-rich countries typically benefit from robust emigration outflows, which limit domestic unemployment and generate cash remittances.1’ Destination countries generally benefit from maximizing the human capital of those who migrate,’2 while countries of origin may worry about “brain drain and prefer that migration consist mainly of low- or middle-skilled workers.’4 Apart from these divergent long-term preferences, business cycles also tend to produce opposing migration demands in migrant-sending and receiving countries.’5 Finally, sending and receiving countries often disagree about the conditions of migration, which include migrants’ labor rights and incentives for return migration. Sending and receiving countries are even more prone to conflict over migration-control measures. Deportation is inherently costly for migrant-source countries, which must reabsorb people who typically have fled poor labor markets in the first place. By definition, migration enforcement impedes emigrants’ freedom of movement, and many enforcement tools conflict with migrants’ basic human rights. Deportations of vulnerable populations (e.g., children, disabled persons) and high-risk groups (e.g., criminals or suspected terrorists) are especially contentious at both ends of the migration chain.
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Rosenblum 11 (Marc R., Marc Rosenblum is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of New Orleans, B.A. in political science at Columbia University and Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, San Diego, “Obstacles and Opportunities For Regional Cooperation: The US-Mexico Case, April 2011, http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/usmexico-cooperation.pdf\\CLans)
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B. Divergent Preferences The structure of global migration systems ensures that migrant-sending and receiving countries often disagree about core migration policy issues source and destination countries disagree about the ideal number of immigrants and the distribution of migrants’ skills and human capital countries of origin may worry about “brain drain and prefer that migration consist mainly of low- or middle-skilled workers business cycles also tend to produce opposing migration demands in migrant-sending and receiving countries , migration enforcement impedes emigrants’ freedom of movement, and many enforcement tools conflict with migrants’ basic human rights
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Aff can’t solve- divergent preferences
| 1,780 | 39 | 672 | 235 | 5 | 93 | 0.021277 | 0.395745 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,006 |
C. Asymmetric Flows In contrast with global trade and investment, net migration flows are predominantly one-directional — i.e., generally from poor states to rich states.’6 This asymmetry means that migrant-sending and receiving countries are not equally dependent on cooperative institutions to achieve efficient labor market outcomes and that they have different abilities to influence migration flows. In the absence of migration restrictions, efficient global labor markets generally result in migration from labor-rich to labor-scarce countries. Thus, given that the world is labor-rich, wealthy states enjoy a “buyer’s market” for workers and do not depend on cooperation from countries of origin to ensure adequate labor inflows.” On the contrary, immigrant-receiving countries can best promote efficient migration flows simply by eliminating their own restrictive policies. Migrant-source countries usually have little corresponding ability to shape outflows. These dynamics mean that any bilateral migration negotiations are also asymmetrical, and that states cannot negotiate migration agreements on the basis of simple reciprocity.
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Rosenblum 11 (Marc R., Marc Rosenblum is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of New Orleans, B.A. in political science at Columbia University and Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, San Diego, “Obstacles and Opportunities For Regional Cooperation: The US-Mexico Case, April 2011, http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/usmexico-cooperation.pdf\\CLans)
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C. Asymmetric Flows net migration flows are predominantly one-directional migrant-sending and receiving countries are not equally dependent on cooperative institutions to achieve efficient labor market outcomes and that they have different abilities to influence migration flows , wealthy states enjoy a “buyer’s market” for workers and do not depend on cooperation from countries of origin to ensure adequate labor inflows.” immigrant-receiving countries can best promote efficient migration flows simply by eliminating their own restrictive policies These dynamics mean that any bilateral migration negotiations are also asymmetrical, and that states cannot negotiate migration agreements on the basis of simple reciprocity.
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Aff can’t solve- asymmetric flows
| 1,142 | 34 | 726 | 157 | 5 | 99 | 0.031847 | 0.630573 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,007 |
D. Complexity of Migration Policy A final barrier to migration cooperation is the complexity of migration policy within host and source states. Although immigration generally benefits host-state economies, it harms some native workers and imposes some short-term costs — and many voters see migration as a net negative. The economics of emigration are also controversial, with some sending-country constituencies more concerned about the costs of brain drain than the benefits of reduced employment pressure and remittance inflows. More importantly, in contrast with other international issues such as trade, investment, and currency regimes, migration policy redefines demographics, culture, and politics. Questions about national identity often weigh more heavily than economics in shaping attitudes about migration.IH Migration may also affect national security, and the United States (like other countries) has always tried to exclude or deport potential hostile agents.” Questions about identity, immigrant integration, and security may also overlap, as recent terrorist incidents involving first- and second-generation immigrants in Europe and the United States make clear.20 For all these reasons, immigration policy is famously characterized by “cross-cutting” cleavages, with business and liberal groups typically favoring more open migration policies and labor unions and social conservatives favoring migration restrictions.2’ These unusual alliances create complex party dynamics with respect to migration policymaking, and domestic political disagreements at both ends of the migration chain are major barriers to finding common ground between sending and receiving countries.
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Rosenblum 11 (Marc R., Marc Rosenblum is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of New Orleans, B.A. in political science at Columbia University and Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, San Diego, “Obstacles and Opportunities For Regional Cooperation: The US-Mexico Case, April 2011, http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/usmexico-cooperation.pdf\\CLans)
|
D. Complexity of Migration Policy A final barrier to migration cooperation is the complexity of migration policy within host and source states immigration harms some native workers and imposes some short-term costs migration policy redefines demographics, culture, and politics. Questions about national identity often weigh more heavily than economics in shaping attitudes about migration. For all these reasons, immigration policy is famously characterized by “cross-cutting” cleavages
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Complexity of migration policy means aff can’t solve
| 1,689 | 52 | 487 | 231 | 8 | 66 | 0.034632 | 0.285714 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,008 |
A worsening dispute over a new guest-worker program has emerged as the most serious obstacle to a bipartisan deal on immigration, threatening to delay the unveiling of a Senate bill early next month. The impasse has prompted a bitter round of name-calling between labor and business groups, which accuse each other of imperiling comprehensive immigration reform. The Obama administration has remained on the sidelines as the standoff has worsened, calculating that the president would risk alienating Republican senators crucial to the process. Obama said this week that the issue is “resolvable.” The guest-worker issue helped derail the last serious attempt at reform in 2007 with assistance from Obama, then a U.S. senator from Illinois. The current attempt at reform is being led by a bipartisan group of eight senators, who are attempting to fashion model legislation for a broad immigration overhaul. The dispute centers on rules governing the “future flow” of migrants who come to the United States for menial jobs. Republicans, citing business interests, want to give temporary work visas to up to 400,000 foreign workers a year at low wages. But unions and many Democrats, fearing the effect on U.S. workers, want fewer workers and higher pay under the program. Senators involved insist that they remain on schedule to complete a bill, including a path to citizenship for 11 million illegal immigrants, in early April. Obama also expressed confidence this week that the guest-worker disagreement could be solved. “I don’t agree that it’s threatening to doom the legislation,” Obama said in an interview Wednesday with Telemundo, the Spanish-language TV network. “Labor and businesses may not always agree exactly on how to do this, but this is a resolvable issue.” But behind the scenes, negotiations over the guest-worker program — and the White House’s refusal to take a position — have soured relations between the AFL-CIO and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which a month ago joined hands to publicly proclaim agreement on an overall plan. “Unions say they want a guest-worker program, but their behavior is to the contrary,” said Geoff Burr, the Associated Builders and Contractors’ vice president for federal affairs. “They are insisting on a program that no employer would consider using.”
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Nakamura, 13. David Nakamura, staff writer for the Washington Post. “Dispute over guest-worker program puts immigration talks at risk of delay.” http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-03-28/politics/38089703_1_guest-worker-program-comprehensive-immigration-reform-barack-obama – clawan
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dispute over a new guest-worker program has emerged as the most serious obstacle to a bipartisan deal on immigration, The guest-worker issue helped derail the last serious attempt at reform in 2007 The dispute centers on rules governing the “future flow” of migrants who come to the United States for menial jobs. Republicans want to give temporary work visas to up to 400,000 foreign workers a year unions and many Democrats want fewer workers and higher pay under the program. negotiations over the guest-worker program — and the White House’s refusal to take a position — have soured relations Unions say they want a guest-worker program, but their behavior is to the contrary They are insisting on a program that no employer would consider using.”
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Guest worker negotiations particularly unpopular – conflicting interests
| 2,305 | 72 | 753 | 366 | 8 | 125 | 0.021858 | 0.34153 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,009 |
Landmark immigration legislation passed by the Senate would remake America’s workforce from the highest rungs to the lowest, bringing more immigrants into numerous sectors of the economy, from elite technology companies to restaurant kitchens and rural fields. In place of the unauthorized workers now commonly found laboring in lower-skilled jobs in the agriculture or service industries, many of these workers would be legal, some of them permanent resident green card holders or even citizens. Illegal immigration across the border with Mexico would slow, while legal immigration would increase markedly. That’s the portrait that emerges from recent analyses of the far-reaching immigration bill passed last month by the Senate with the backing of the White House. Although the bill aims to secure the borders, track people overstaying their visas, and deny employers the ability to hire workers here illegally, it by no means seeks to choke off immigration. Indeed, it would increase the U.S. population over the next two decades by 15 million more people than current law, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Even after decades of growth in the U.S. foreign-born population, the added increase could be felt in ways large and small around the country, from big cities that would absorb even more diversity to small towns that may still be adjusting to current immigrant arrivals. “That is baked into the basic premise of the bill,” said Doris Meissner, a senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute, “which is that you need to provide legal avenues for people to come to the country both in longer-term temporary and in permanent visa categories in order to meet the needs of the future and avert the incentives for illegal immigration.”
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Werner 7/9/13 (Erica, Congressional Reporter for the Associated Press, Senate Immigration Bill would Remake Economy, http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/07/09/3018417/senate-immigration-bill-would.html)
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immigration legislation would remake America’s workforce , bringing more immigrants into numerous sectors of the economy from elite technology companies rural fields. Illegal immigration across the border with Mexico would slow, while legal immigration would increase markedly. Although the bill aims to secure the borders track people overstaying their visas, and deny employers the ability to hire workers here illegally, it by no means seeks to choke off immigration. the added increase could be felt in ways large and small around the country That is baked into the basic premise of the bill,” said Meissner “which is that you need to provide legal avenues for people to come to the country both in longer-term temporary and in permanent visa categories in order to meet the needs of the future and avert the incentives for illegal immigration.”
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CIR solves agriculture and illegal immigration
| 1,756 | 47 | 849 | 280 | 6 | 136 | 0.021429 | 0.485714 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,010 |
"We commend President Obama on his speech this morning in Mexico that called for a stronger US-Mexico relationship and comprehensive immigration reform. "His speech was an important reminder that reforming our immigration policy affects many nations. As the President said, we need an immigration system that reflects our values, that unites families rather than dividing them, and that celebrates talent and innovation. Comprehensive immigration reform must protect our borders while welcoming those coming to America to work hard and contribute to our economy. "That is why the National League of Cities strongly endorses common sense immigration reform and welcomes the work of the Senate "Gang of 8" in pushing for legislation that balances border security, workplace enforcement and an earned path to citizenship and brings hard working immigrants out of the shadows to participate fully in our economy. "We look forward to working with the President and Congressional leaders to enact immigration reform and welcome immigrants to our nation."
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Rogers 5/3/13 (Marie, National League of Cities President, mayor, Avondale, AZ, President’s Speech in Mexico Reinforces Need for Comprehensive Immigration Reform, http://www.nlc.org/media-center/news-search/president%E2%80%99s-speech-in-mexico-reinforces-need-for-comprehensive-immigration-reform)
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"We commend President Obama on his speech this morning in Mexico that called for a stronger US-Mexico relationship and comprehensive immigration reform. reforming our immigration policy affects many nations we need an immigration system that celebrates talent and innovation Comprehensive immigration reform must protect our borders while welcoming those coming to America to work hard and contribute to our economy. "That is why the National League of Cities strongly endorses common sense immigration reform and welcomes the work of the Senate "Gang of 8" in pushing for legislation that balances border security, workplace enforcement and an earned path to citizenship and brings hard working immigrants out of the shadows to participate fully in our economy
|
CIR solves the aff- boosts econ and border security
| 1,048 | 52 | 761 | 159 | 9 | 115 | 0.056604 | 0.72327 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,011 |
We recognize that our immigration system is broken. And while border security has improved significantly over the last two Administrations, we still don't have a functioning immigration system. This has created a situation where up to 11 million undocumented immigrants are living in the shadows. Our legislation acknowledges these realities by finally committing the resources needed to secure the border, modernize and streamline our current legal immigration system, while creating a tough but fair legalization program for individuals who are currently here. We will ensure that this is a successful permanent reform to our immigration system that will not need to be revisited. Four Basic Legislative Pillars: 1. Create a tough but fair path to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants currently living in the United States that is contingent upon securing our borders and tracking whether legal immigrants have left the country when required; 2. Reform our legal immigration system to better recognize the importance of characteristics that will help build the American economy and strengthen American families; 3. Create an effective employment verification system that will prevent identity theft and end the hiring of future unauthorized workers; and, 4. Establish an improved process for admitting future workers to serve our nation's workforce needs, while simultaneously protecting all workers."
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Council on Foreign Relations 1/28/13 (The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher, Bipartisan Framework and Legislation for Comprehensive Immigration Reform, http://www.cfr.org/immigration/bipartisan-framework-legislation-comprehensive-immigration-reform/p29887?cid=rss-fullfeed-bipartisan_framework_for_compr-012813)
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our immigration system is broken legislation acknowledges these realities by finally committing the resources needed to secure the border, modernize and streamline our current legal immigration system, while creating a tough but fair legalization program for individuals who are currently here our immigration system will Reform our legal immigration system to better recognize the importance of characteristics that will help build the American economy and Establish an improved process for admitting future workers to serve our nation's workforce needs, while simultaneously protecting all workers
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CIR solves illegal immigration and us ag
| 1,406 | 41 | 599 | 208 | 7 | 84 | 0.033654 | 0.403846 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,012 |
Immigrants Spur Job Creation. Not only are immigrants more likely to be self-employed and to create their own jobs, but immigrants are twice as likely to start a new business and 13 percent more likely to own a business than non-immigrants. Importantly, these businesses are also more likely to hire employees than non-immigrant businesses. In 2007 alone, small immigrant businesses hired 4.7 million people. Immigrant businesses not only hire more, but they also have higher levels of start-up capital and expand their businesses with their own sources of funding. Immigrants Boost Consumer Demand. Not only are immigrant businesses 60 percent more likely to export than non-immigrant businesses thus expanding markets abroad, but they also expand domestic demand. In 2010, the potential purchasing power of immigrants stood at $1.1 trillion and this purchasing power is expected to continue growing as more immigrants come in and as immigrants who obtain legal status see their earnings rise. Areas experiencing large inflows of immigrants gain from greater demand in retail and housing, helping the recovery in these sectors. Immigrants Reduce the Deficit. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office recently reported that immigration reform would reduce the deficit by close to $200 billion and $700 billion in the following two decades. My own work with colleagues from the Center for American Progress show that legalizing the 11 million undocumented would help the solvency of the social security system, funding 6.5 percent of current retirees and closing the gap between benefits and contributions by about a third over the next ten years. These results are similar to those found by the Social Security Chief Actuary who reports that immigration reform would add over $200 billion to the Social Security Trust Fund over the next decade. Immigrants Grow the Economy. Immigrant labor force participation, consumption, and investments help to grow the economy in the short-term. In the longer term, immigrant innovation also contributes to growth. The U.S. is at the cutting edge in terms of innovation thanks to an open system that welcomes the most creative minds around the world. In fact, immigrants represent 47 percent of U.S. engineers and 24 percent of U.S. scientists and they are almost twice as likely to patent as non-immigrants. The CBO found that increased participation, investment and productivity due to immigration reform would increase GDP by 3.3 percent by 2023 and by 5.4 percent by 2033.
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Kugler 7/9/13 (Adriana, Economist and Professor of Public Policy at Georgetown University. She served as the Chief Economist to U.S. Labor Secretary, Hilda L. Solis, Why comprehensive immigration reform is good for all of us, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/309899-why-comprehensive-immigration-reform-is-good-for-all-of-us)
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immigrants are twice as likely to start a new business and 13 percent more likely to own a business than non-immigrants. Immigrant businesses not only hire more, but they also have higher levels of start-up capital and expand their businesses with their own sources of funding. immigrant businesses expand domestic demand In 2010, the potential purchasing power of immigrants stood at $1.1 trillion and this purchasing power is expected to continue growing as more immigrants come in and as immigrants who obtain legal status see their earnings rise The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office recently reported that immigration reform would reduce the deficit by close to $200 billion and $700 billion in the following two decades. legalizing the 11 million undocumented would help the solvency of the social security system, funding 6.5 percent of current retirees Immigrant labor force participation, consumption, and investments help to grow the economy in the short-term. In the longer term, immigrant innovation also contributes to growth. The U.S. is at the cutting edge in terms of innovation thanks to an open system that welcomes the most creative minds around the world. The CBO found that increased participation, investment and productivity due to immigration reform would increase GDP by 3.3 percent by 2023 and by 5.4 percent by 2033.
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CIR solves the economy- job creation, deficit reduction, consumer demand
| 2,518 | 72 | 1,350 | 395 | 10 | 212 | 0.025316 | 0.536709 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,013 |
After a strong vote of support in the Senate, historic immigration reform is headed to the House of Representatives, and we’ve already seen opponents of the bill try to distort the benefits of reform for our country. Now more than ever, the untold economic story of immigration needs to be told and retold. It is a simple truth that immigrants help grow the US economy. Yet, this fact often gets lost as the complexities of immigration are reduced to a zero sum game of native workers versus immigrants. Despite the unabashed success that the U.S. has had in building a great union with the help of generation after generation of immigrants, it is fair to say that the U.S. is still in the process of fully understanding the overall economic impact of immigration. Yet, it is without question that, as immigrants build a future for their children and families, they provide labor, create business, buy goods and services, pay taxes and, most importantly, they build their local communities. Immigrants Provide Labor. Immigrants make up 13 percent of the population and 16 percent of the labor force and their shares are expected to continue growing over the next decades to meet the longer term demand for labor. Importantly, immigrants help to meet the need for very highly educated and less educated but skilled workers.
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Kugler 7/9/13 (Adriana, Economist and Professor of Public Policy at Georgetown University. She served as the Chief Economist to U.S. Labor Secretary, Hilda L. Solis, Why comprehensive immigration reform is good for all of us, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/309899-why-comprehensive-immigration-reform-is-good-for-all-of-us)
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historic immigration reform is headed to the House of Representatives we’ve already seen opponents of the bill try to distort the benefits of reform for our country. Now more than ever, the untold economic story of immigration needs to be told and retold. It is a simple truth that immigrants help grow the US economy. Yet, this fact often gets lost as the complexities of immigration are reduced to a zero sum game of native workers versus immigrants. as immigrants build a future for their children and families they build their local communities Immigrants make up 13 percent of the population and 16 percent of the labor force and their shares are expected to continue growing over the next decades to meet the longer term demand for labor. Importantly, immigrants help to meet the need for very highly educated and less educated but skilled workers.
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CIR solves the case – stimulates us ag and economy
| 1,322 | 51 | 854 | 223 | 10 | 145 | 0.044843 | 0.650224 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,014 |
In the 110th Congress, the U.S. Senate voted against cloture on the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007 (S. 1348) in June 2007, and the measure was not considered after that vote. The bill would have improved border security, established a temporary worker program, and normalized the status of most illegal immigrants in the United States. Mexico has long lobbied for such reforms. Immigration reform legislation also was introduced in the House of Representatives in March 2007. The House measure, the Security Through Regularized Immigration and Vibrant Economy Act of 2007 (H.R. 1645), would have set border and document security benchmarks to be met before normalizing the status of illegal immigrant or the creation of a guest worker program. A variety of other migration-related legislative initiatives were introduced in the 110th Congress, but none were enacted.80
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Seelke 9 (Clare Ribando and Kristen M., Clare Ribando Seelke is a specialist in Latin American Affairs at the Congressional Research Service, the research arm of the Library of Congress in Washington, D.C. , Seelke holds a Master of Public Affairs and Master of Arts in Latin American Studies from the University of Texas at Austin, Kristen is an Analyst in Domestic Security “Mérida Initiative for Mexico and Central America: Funding and Policy Issues", August 21, 2009, http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R40135_20090821.pdf\\CLans)
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In the 110th Congress, the U.S. Senate voted against C I R bill would have improved border security, established a temporary worker program, and normalized the status of most illegal immigrants in the U S Mexico has long lobbied for such reforms The House measure would have set border and document security benchmarks to be met before normalizing the status of illegal immigrant or the creation of a guest worker program.
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CIR solves the entirety of the aff
| 882 | 34 | 422 | 136 | 7 | 71 | 0.051471 | 0.522059 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,015 |
A "broken" immigration policy is harmful to agribusiness, says U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Thomas Vilsack. The Kansas City Business Journal reports Vilsack spoke in Kansas City last week in support of a bipartisan immigration reform bill now in the U.S. Senate. The KCBJ story has full details on his talk. One key point Vilsack made was that the agriculture industry needs a stable work force, and he said migrant workers have been crucial to that work force, but that many of them are undocumented. If the United States doesn't figure out a way to make these workers legally and consistently available to farmers, crops, jobs and money will go elsewhere, he said.
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Witchata Business Journal 6/24/13 (cites Thomas Vilsack, US secretary of Agriculture, Ag secretary: Immigration reform vital for industry growth, http://www.bizjournals.com/wichita/morning_call/2013/06/ag-secretary-immigration-reform-vital.html)
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A "broken" immigration policy is harmful to agribusiness Vilsack spoke in Kansas City last week in support of a bipartisan immigration reform bill the agriculture industry needs a stable work force, and he said migrant workers have been crucial to that work force, but that many of them are undocumented. If the United States doesn't figure out a way to make these workers legally and consistently available to farmers, crops, jobs and money will go elsewhere, he said.
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CIR solves us ag- keeps jobs in the us
| 667 | 39 | 469 | 112 | 9 | 78 | 0.080357 | 0.696429 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,016 |
The U.S. needs immigration reform first and foremost because it's the right thing to do, both for the undocumented, working immigrants it would most affect and the nation's agriculture industry. By extension, that also means U.S. consumers. About half of the country's farm labor force is illegal, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and California, by far the nation's leading state for agriculture, is particularly dependent on such workers. Hewing strictly to the law as it exists now would wipe out whole industries, which ought to be proof enough that any sort of reform must accept this reality. The reality of immigration also includes the fact that Mexico's improving domestic economy may soon start drying up what has to this point seemed an unending supply of cheap labor. Where will that leave a country where few unemployed citizens are willing to take on the backbreaking labor of the fields? Senate supporters of reform understand all that and have built special provisions into the reform bill that address both long- and short-term labor arrangements. Their legislation would give permanent workers a five-year fast track to legal status, half the length of time other workers would have to wait. It would also allow foreign workers to obtain 36-month work visas in year-round food industries such as dairy, cattle and poultry. That's a big deal in places like Kern County, which is home to 54 dairy farms and more than 100,000 milk cows.
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The Bakersfield Californian 6/11/13 ( cites U.S. Department of Agriculture,California ag needs reform bill most of all, http://www.bakersfieldcalifornian.com/opinion/our-view/x88759870/California-ag-needs-reform-bill-most-of-allhttp://www.bakersfieldcalifornian.com/opinion/our-view/x88759870/California-ag-needs-reform-bill-most-of-all)
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The U.S. needs immigration reform it would most affect and the nation's agriculture industry that also means U.S. consumers half of the country's farm labor force is illegal, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and California, by far the nation's leading state for agriculture, is particularly dependent on such workers Hewing strictly to the law as it exists now would wipe out whole industries, which ought to be proof enough that any sort of reform must accept this reality. that Mexico's improving domestic economy may soon start drying up what has to this point seemed an unending supply of cheap labor supporters of reform understand all that and have built special provisions into the reform bill that address both long- and short-term labor arrangements. Their legislation would give permanent workers a five-year fast track to legal status, half the length of time other workers would have to wait. It would also allow foreign workers to obtain 36-month work visas in year-round food industries
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CIR solves US ag
| 1,467 | 17 | 1,016 | 241 | 4 | 164 | 0.016598 | 0.680498 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,017 |
On the other side, the flow of illegal immigration into the country would decrease by one-third or one-half compared with current law, the Congressional Budget Office says. Illegal immigration has already decreased since 2000 due to a combination of factors, including the economic downturn and greater security measures in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks. Although up-to-date annual figures on illegal immigration are hard to come by, one recent study published in the International Migration Review said that close to 400,000 immigrants entered illegally in 2009, either by crossing the border unlawfully or overstaying temporary visas. An author of the study, Robert Warren, said that the figure has not likely changed dramatically in the years since. The bill offers a 13-year path to citizenship for the 11 million immigrants already here illegally, the most contentious element of the legislation since many House conservatives oppose granting citizenship to people who broke U.S. laws to be here. But that aspect of the legislation has little impact on the overall population size since the people involved are already in the country even if they end up transitioning to legal status. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that some 8 million of them would do just that. Beyond the changes in numbers, the immigration bill shifts the emphasis of U.S. immigration policy away from family ties and put more weight on employment prospects, education and relative youth. It also raises ceilings on how many immigrants could come from any one country. And there would be impacts as yet unforeseen as the policies unspool into an uncertain future and economic conditions in other countries impact how many of their citizens dream of calling the U.S. home.
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Werner 7/9/13 (Erica, Congressional Reporter for the Associated Press, Senate Immigration Bill would Remake Economy, http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/07/09/3018417/senate-immigration-bill-would.html)
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, the flow of illegal immigration into the country would decrease by one-third or one-half compared with current law, the Congressional Budget Office says Illegal immigration has already decreased since 2000 due to a combination of factors, The bill offers a 13-year path to citizenship for the 11 million immigrants already here illegally . But that aspect of the legislation has little impact on the overall population size since the people involved are already in the country even if they end up transitioning to legal status. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that some 8 million of them would do just that. the immigration bill shifts the emphasis of U.S. immigration policy away from family ties and put more weight on employment prospects, education and relative youth
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CIR solves illegal immigration
| 1,774 | 31 | 783 | 283 | 4 | 126 | 0.014134 | 0.44523 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,018 |
Comprehensive immigration reform will open a gateway to one of Latin America's fastest-growing economies. By providing a pathway to citizenship for the undocumented immigrants of Mexican origin, reform will make it easier for laborers to cross borders, which will harness the competitiveness of both countries. It would also show that the U.S. is a true economic partner with Mexico and the rest of the Americas. Legal status would open the door for these immigrants and their children to further increase their contributions to the U.S. economy and to start small businesses that would capitalize on their cross-border networks. This is a highly likely scenario as immigrants are more likely to start a business than those born in the U.S., and Mexicans represent the greatest number of foreign-born small-business owners.
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Marczak 4/18/13 (Jason, director of policy at Americas Society and Council of the Americas and senior editor of Americas Quarterly, Immigration reform gets U.S. in on Mexico's boom, http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/18/opinion/marczak-immigration-the-new-mexico)
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C i r will open a gateway to one of Latin America's fastest-growing economies. a pathway to citizenship will make it easier for laborers to cross borders, which will harness the competitiveness of both countries. It would also show that the U.S. is a true economic partner with Mexico and the rest of the Americas. Legal status would open the door for these immigrants and their children to further increase their contributions to the U.S. and to start small businesses that would capitalize on their cross-border networks. This is a highly likely scenario as immigrants are more likely to start a business than those born in the U.S., and Mexicans represent the greatest number of foreign-born small-business owners.
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CIR solves US Mexico relations- economic partnership
| 823 | 53 | 717 | 129 | 7 | 118 | 0.054264 | 0.914729 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,019 |
In the debate over comprehensive immigration reform, various policymakers and business groups have suggested that Congress create a new or expanded guestworker program to ensure a steady supply of foreign workers for industries that rely on an abundance of cheap labor. Congress should look before it leaps. The current H-2 program, which provides temporary farmworkers and non-farm laborers for a variety of U.S. industries, is rife with labor and human rights violations committed by employers who prey on a highly vulnerable workforce. It harms the interests of U.S. workers, as well, by undercutting wages and working conditions for those who labor at the lowest rungs of the economic ladder. This program should not be expanded or used as a model for immigration reform. Under the current H-2 program overseen by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), employers brought about 106,000 guestworkers into this country in 2011 — approximately 55,000 for agricultural work and another 51,000 for jobs in forestry, seafood processing, landscaping, construction and other non-agricultural industries. But far from being treated like “guests,” these workers are systematically exploited and abused. Unlike U.S. citizens, guestworkers do not enjoy the most fundamental protection of a competitive labor market — the ability to change jobs if they are mistreated. Instead, they are bound to the employers who “import” them. If guestworkers complain about abuses, they face deportation, blacklisting or other retaliation. Bound to a single employer and without access to legal resources, guestworkers are routinely: Cheated out of wages Forced to mortgage their futures to obtain low-wage, temporary jobs Held virtually captive by employers or labor brokers who seize their documents Subjected to human trafficking and debt servitude Forced to live in squalid conditions Denied medical benefits for on-the-job injuries. Former House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel put it this way: “This guestworker program’s the closest thing I’ve ever seen to slavery.”1 Congressman Rangel’s conclusion is not mere hyperbole nor the first time such a comparison has been made. Former DOL official Lee G. Williams described the old “bracero” program — an earlier version of the guestworker program that brought thousands of Mexican nationals to work in the United States during and after World War II — as a system of “legalized slavery.2 On paper, the bracero program had many significant written legal protections, providing workers with what historian Cindy Hahamovitch, an expert on guestworker programs, has called “the most comprehensive farm labor contract in the history of American agriculture.3 Nevertheless, the bracero workers were systematically lied to, cheated and “shamefully neglected.4 In practice, there is little difference between the bracero program of yesterday and today’s H-2 guestworker program. Federal law and DOL regulations provide a few protections to H-2 guestworkers, but they exist mainly on paper. Government enforcement of guestworker rights is historically very weak. Private attorneys typically won’t take up their cause. And non-agricultural workers in the program are not eligible for federally funded legal services. The H-2 guestworker system also can be viewed as a modern-day system of indentured servitude. But unlike European indentured servants of old, today’s guestworkers have no prospect of becoming U.S. citizens. When their temporary work visas expire, they must leave the United States. They are, in effect, the disposable workers of the U.S. economy. U.S. workers suffer as a result of these flaws in the guestworker system. As long as employers in low-wage industries can rely on an endless stream of vulnerable guestworkers who lack basic labor protections, they will have little incentive to hire U.S. workers or make jobs more appealing to domestic workers by improving wages and working conditions. Not surprisingly, many H-2 employers discriminate against U.S. workers, preferring to hire guestworkers, even though they are required to certify that no domestic workers are available to fill their jobs. In addition, it is well-documented that wages for U.S. workers are depressed in industries that rely heavily on guestworkers. This report is based on interviews with thousands of guestworkers, a review of the research on guestworker programs, scores of legal cases and the experiences of legal experts from around the country. The abuses described here are too common to blame on a few “bad apple” employers. They are the foreseeable outcomes of a system that treats foreign workers as commodities to be imported as needed without affording them adequate legal safeguards, the protections of the free market, or the opportunity to become full members of society. When the Southern Poverty Law Center published the first version of this report in 2007, we recommended reform or repeal of the H-2 program. Unfortunately, even after the enactment of modest reforms in recent years, guestworker programs today are still inherently abusive and unfair to both U.S. and foreign workers. In the past several years, the DOL has proposed two sets of regulations to better protect non-agricultural H-2 workers – one related to wage rate guarantees and one more comprehensive set of regulations. These regulations also would better protect the jobs and wages of U.S. workers. Unfortunately for workers, neither set of regulations has gone into effect; employers have filed multiple lawsuits challenging them, and Congress has effectively blocked implementation of the new wage regulations. For workers, then, the abuses continue unabated. It is virtually impossible to create a guestworker program for low-wage workers that does not involve systemic abuse. The H-2 guestworker program should not be expanded in the name of immigration reform and should not be the model for the future flow of workers to this country. If the current H-2 program is allowed to continue, it should be completely overhauled. Recommendations for doing so appear at the end of this report.
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SPLC, 13 – Southern Poverty Law Center, The Southern Poverty Law Center is a nonprofit civil rights organization dedicated to fighting hate and bigotry, and to seeking justice for the most vulnerable members of society (“Close to Slavery: Guestworker Programs in the United States”, Feb., 2013, http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/publications/close-to-slavery-guestworker-programs-in-the-united-states)
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In the debate over comprehensive immigration reform policymakers suggested that Congress create a new guestworker program The current H-2 program is rife with labor and human rights violations committed by employers who prey on a highly vulnerable workforce. It harms the interests of U.S. workers undercutting wages and working conditions for those who labor at the lowest rungs of the economic ladder far from being treated like “guests workers are systematically exploited and abused. guestworkers do not enjoy the most fundamental protection of a competitive labor market the ability to change jobs if they are mistreated. they are bound to the employers who “import” them. If guestworkers complain about abuses, they face deportation, blacklisting or other retaliation. guestworkers are routinely Cheated out of wages Forced to mortgage their futures to obtain low-wage, temporary jobs Held virtually captive by employers or labor brokers who seize their documents Subjected to human trafficking and debt servitude Forced to live in squalid conditions Denied medical benefits for on-the-job injuries. This guestworker program’s the closest thing I’ve ever seen to slavery the old “bracero” program a system of “legalized slavery the bracero workers were systematically lied to, cheated and “shamefully neglected. there is little difference between the bracero program of yesterday and today’s program When their temporary work visas expire, they must leave the United States. They are, in effect, the disposable workers of the U.S. economy. U.S. workers suffer as a result of these flaws As long as employers in low-wage industries can rely on an endless stream of vulnerable guestworkers they will have little incentive to hire U.S. workers or make jobs more appealing to domestic workers by improving wages and working conditions. employers discriminate against U.S. worker it is well-documented that wages for U.S. workers are depressed in industries that rely heavily on guestworkers. This is based on interviews with thousands of guestworkers, a review of the research on guestworker programs, scores of legal cases and the experiences of legal experts from around the country. The abuses described here are too common to blame on a few “bad apple” employers They are the foreseeable outcomes guestworker programs today are still inherently abusive and unfair to both U.S. and foreign workers It is virtually impossible to create a guestworker program for low-wage workers that does not involve systemic abuse. The H-2 guestworker program should not be expanded in the name of immigration reform and should not be the model for the future flow of workers to this country
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Guest worker programs inherently bolster systemic abuse of immigrants – this marginalizes workers to modern day slavery – D-rule
| 6,111 | 128 | 2,680 | 939 | 19 | 415 | 0.020234 | 0.44196 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,020 |
In March 2012, President Obama directed his Cabinet to redouble the Administration’s efforts to eliminate human trafficking, which afflicts more than 20 million people around the world, including in communities here at home. Today, building on the strong record of the President’s Interagency Task Force to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons and its member agencies, the President is announcing several initiatives: • Executive Order Strengthening Protections in Federal Contracts: To strengthen the U.S. Government’s existing zero-tolerance policy on human trafficking in government contracting, the President has issued an Executive Order that outlines prohibitions on trafficking-related activities that will apply to all federal contractors and subcontractors, requires compliance measures for large overseas contracts and subcontracts, and provides federal agencies with additional tools to foster compliance. • Tools and Training to Identify and Assist Trafficking Victims: The Administration is providing human trafficking training and guidance to federal prosecutors, law enforcement officials, and immigration judges; to commercial transportation officials; to state and local law enforcement partners; and to state workforce agencies and educators. Through this training, these professionals will be better equipped to detect trafficking wherever it exists, and to help ensure that victims are always treated as victims and not criminals. • Increased Resources for Victims of Human Trafficking: The Administration is announcing initiatives to expand services and legal assistance to victims of trafficking, and will partner with Humanity United, with support from the Goldman Sachs Foundation, to launch $6 million in Partnership for Freedom Innovation Awards to challenge local communities to develop collaborative and comprehensive solutions to help trafficking victims. The Administration also will work to streamline current procedures for the existing T-visa process, which allows victims to remain in the United States and aid the prosecution of their traffickers. In addition, the President is announcing his intent to establish a new Presidential Award for Extraordinary Efforts to Combat Trafficking in Persons, which will be awarded annually to incentivize and recognize exceptional contributions in the field. • Comprehensive Plan for Future Action: The President’s Interagency Task Force to Monitor and Combat Human Trafficking in Persons will develop the first-ever federal strategic action plan to strengthen services for trafficking victims. In a related effort, the interagency Human Smuggling and Trafficking Center (HSTC) will develop its first-ever domestic human trafficking assessment to track trends within the United States, enabling both law enforcement and service providers to deploy resources more effectively. These efforts will be assisted by the intelligence community, which is increasing its focus on human trafficking internationally, and working more closely with the HSTC here at home. The Administration’s efforts augment the work of business, non-profits, educational institutions and foundations to combat trafficking. Key announcements that will help to advance this shared work include: • The creation of the Global Business Coalition Against Trafficking, a business-to-business network that will mobilize its members to fight trafficking, including through the identification and development of best practices; • The U.S. Travel Association’s compilation of an anti-trafficking “toolkit” to drive awareness within the travel and tourism industry; • The Administration’s launch of the Counter-Trafficking in Persons Campus Challenge to raise awareness and inspire activism among college students and to develop innovative technology approaches to combatting human trafficking; • The Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health’s cross-disciplinary research partnership with the Gossldman Sachs Foundation and the Advisory Council on Child Trafficking, which will focus on the prevention of child sex trafficking and treatment for survivors; and • The launch of the Made in a Free World initiative to help buyers and suppliers identify and eliminate supply chain vulnerabilities, and demonstrate their commitment to combatting human trafficking. In addition, the faith-based community has been a leader in combatting human trafficking at home and around the world, raising awareness and providing services. The President’s Advisory Council on Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships will focus its efforts on the issue of trafficking and identify opportunities to expand partnerships with faith and community-based groups.
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White House 12 (‘Fact Sheet: the Obama Administration Announces Efforts to Combat Human Trafficking at Home and Abroad’ Published on September 25th, 2012 http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/09/25/fact-sheet-obama-administration-announces-efforts-combat-human-trafficki) LShen
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In 2012 Obama directed his Cabinet to redouble efforts to eliminate human trafficking Today, building on the strong record of the President’s Interagency Task Force to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons and its member agencies, the President is announcing several initiatives: Executive Order Strengthening Protections in Federal Contracts strengthen the U.S. Government’s existing zero-tolerance policy on human trafficking in contracting The Administration is providing human trafficking training and guidance to federal officials, Through this training, these professionals will be better equipped to detect trafficking , and to help ensure that victims are always treated as victims and not criminals Increased Resources for Victims of Human Trafficking: The Administration is announcing initiatives to expand services and legal assistance to victims of trafficking The Administration also will work to streamline current procedures for the existing T-visa process The President’s Interagency Task Force will develop the first-ever federal strategic action plan to strengthen services for trafficking victims the HSTC) will develop its first-ever domestic human trafficking assessment to track trends within the United States, enabling both law enforcement and service providers to deploy resources more effectively. These efforts will be assisted by the intelligence community, The creation of the Global Business Coalition Against Trafficking will mobilize its members to fight trafficking through the identification of best practices • The U.S. Travel Association’s compilation of an anti-trafficking “toolkit The Administration’s launch of the Counter-Trafficking in Persons Campus Challenge to raise awareness and inspire activism among college students The Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health’s research partnership with the Gossldman Sachs Foundation and the Advisory Council on Child Trafficking, which will focus on the prevention of child sex trafficking and treatment for survivors and • The launch of the Made in a Free World initiative to help buyers and suppliers identify and eliminate supply chain vulnerabilities The President’s Advisory Council will focus its efforts on the issue of trafficking to expand partnerships with faith and community-based groups.
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Federal efforts to combat human trafficking have been made
| 4,695 | 58 | 2,299 | 655 | 9 | 324 | 0.01374 | 0.494656 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,021 |
The covenant elaborates the political and civil rights identified in the Universal Declaration, which include the rights to life, privacy, fair trial, peaceful assembly, equality before the law, freedom of expression, freedom of thought, conscience and religion, and freedom from torture., as well as the prohibition of slavery in all of its forms, and the rights of persons belonging to ethnic religious and linguistic minorities. According to Article 2 of the Covenant, these rights should be immediately guaranteed by states and they should take the necessary steps in the fields of legislation and social policy to ensure this.
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Levin 13 (Leah Sarah Levin is a member of the Human Rights Committee of the UN Association, director of JUSTICE and a member of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Human Rights‘Human Rights: Questions and Answers’ Page 29) LShen
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The covenant elaborates the political and civil rights include the rights to life, privacy, fair trial, peaceful assembly, equality before the law, freedom of expression religion, and freedom from torture as well as the prohibition of slavery in all of its forms these rights should be immediately guaranteed by states and they should take the necessary steps in the fields of legislation and social policy to ensure this.
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International law ensures several basic human rights
| 631 | 52 | 422 | 98 | 7 | 68 | 0.071429 | 0.693878 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,022 |
"Human trafficking is a hidden crime. The data is very scarce, but it is clear that too many people are being subjected to it in the US," said Tsu Human trafficking, a scourge whose global impact was reported this week by the US Government, is growing in the shadows of in their own land, spurred by fear of denouncing the undocumented and the impunity of criminals. Human trafficking, a scourge whose global impact was reported this week by the US Government, grows in the shade in their own territory, spurred by fear of denouncing the undocumented migrants and the impunity of criminals. "Human trafficking is a hidden crime. The data is very scarce, but it is clear that too many people are being subjected to it in America," he told Efe Naomi Tsu, responsible for Immigrant Justice Programme of the Southern Poverty Law Centre , an organization that monitors abuses of illegal immigrants. Although the problem does not reach the range you have in China or Russia, three of the 21 countries identified by their complicity with trafficking in a State Department report on Wednesday, the US has "structural" factors that make "modern slavery", especially labour, continual with" no brakes "said Tsu. In 2012, the Justice Department described human trafficking as the second fastest growing criminal industry in the United States, behind only drug trafficking, but official data remains scarce. The Polaris Project, a support centre for victims of human trafficking in the United States, estimates that "hundreds of thousands" of children and adults are subjected to sexual or labour exploitation in the country, its president Bradley Myles said this weekend. This wide spread problem is evident, especially when the authorities dismantle a human trafficking network, as happened twice this week. The first incident took place on Monday when New York authorities indicted nine 7-Eleven store franchise owners exploiting illegal immigrants from Pakistan and the Philippines; it was like "a modern plantation", in the words of Attorney Loretta Lynch. The second incident occurred on Tuesday, when authorities arrested four people for keeping a mentally ill woman and her son for two years at his home in a rural location in slave like conditions. According to the State Department report, the majority of victims of human trafficking in the US come from Mexico, followed by Thailand, the Philippines, Honduras, Indonesia and Guatemala. Undocumented immigrants are "particularly vulnerable to crime, as they resist seeking help from the authorities for fear of being deported and separated from their families," said Tsu. The Southern Poverty Law Centre, whose attorneys represent thousands of US immigrants, has further determined that "guest workers who are in the country with valid visas risk being trafficked due to the lack of regulation" on the programmes that allow them to enter the country, he said. "Some of my clients paid USD 15,000 in fees to get a green card and a job in the US, and instead entered the country with an H-2B visa and 10 months to work with a company that would charge more than 1,000 dollars a month to live in overcrowded accommodations, "he said. The immigration reform that on which the Senate is currently deliberating would improve oversight of such programmes, but not eliminate the link between many types of visas and a single employer, and would be subjected to "immense pressure" to stay in "an abusive job" , warned the lawyer. Labour exploitation is a form of human trafficking is most widespread in the US, but 85 per cent of the legal processes that open in the country are cases of sexual exploitation, according to a 2012 study by the National Institute of Justice. "This imbalance allows traffic to continue moving forward without brakes work," lamented Tsu. According to the Department of Justice, the US opened an average of 24 cases per year related to the exploitation of labour between 2009 and 2011, more than double between 2006 and 2008, while investigating about 11 cases a year. Aid organizations recognize that victims in the US recognize US standards have improved greatly in the last decade, but ask for more prevention and process guarantees so they do not have to read again, as in the report Wednesday that forced labour persists among household employees or ambassadorial residences or indigenous girls being forced into prostitution.
|
La Vanguardia 6-26 (Spanish newspaper, “Mexican report sees human trafficking in USA growing”, 7/9/13, lexis)
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trafficking is a hidden crime too many people are being subjected to it in the US, "structural" factors make "modern slavery", continual Undocumented immigrants are vulnerable to crime, guest workers with valid visas risk being trafficked due to the lack of regulation Some entered the country with an H-2B visa and 10 months to work that would charge more than 1,000 dollars a month to live in overcrowded accommodations immigration reform that Senate is deliberating would not eliminate immense pressure" to stay in "an abusive job" Labour exploitation is a form of human trafficking is most widespread in the US, This imbalance allows traffic to continue moving forward without brakes work
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Plan perpetuates labor exploitation
| 4,398 | 36 | 692 | 718 | 4 | 111 | 0.005571 | 0.154596 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,023 |
The human rights of migrants in sending, transit, receiving, and return communities must be upheld by all governments and international bodies. These include the right to permanence, which should extend to second generations. With this in mind, the concept of forced migration should be rethought and expanded in order to counteract migration policies that, by appealing to sovereignty and national security, criminalise migrants and violate their rights. Many current guest-worker programmes exemplify apparently humane setups that, in reality, mask the continued exploitation of migrants and the violation of their human rights. Associated key topics include irregular migration; human trafficking and smuggling; discrimination; the safety of human rights defenders; labour standards and a decent labour agenda; and international instruments that ensure the protection of human and working rights, and their progressivity and non-regressive implementation as part of any state’s duty.
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Wise et. al 13 (Raúl Delgado Wise is the President of the International Network on Migration and Development; UNESCO Chair on Migration and Professor of the Doctoral Program in Develop Studies @ University of Zacatecas ‘Reframing the Debate on Migration, Development and Human Rights’ Published on May 14th, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/psp.1783/asset/psp1783.pdf?v=1&t=hixl31th&s=224cacb90c7f4f4111d4d22c5d5b44010e303fb9 ) LShen
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The human rights of migrants in sending, transit, receiving, and return communities must be upheld by all governments and international bodies. the concept of forced migration should be rethought and expanded to counteract migration policies that criminalise migrants and violate their rights. Many current guest-worker programmes exemplify apparently humane setups that mask the continued exploitation of migrants and the violation of their human rights
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Misleading guest worker programs mask exploitation
| 985 | 50 | 454 | 139 | 6 | 64 | 0.043165 | 0.460432 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,024 |
Thousands of people are being trafficked to the UK for forced labour in a "hidden crime" where victims go unnoticed, experts have said. The workers are forced to put in long hours with little food while living in squalid conditions, the UK Human Trafficking Centre (UKHTC) said, and may be employed by firms unaware of the abuse. UKHTC has launched a campaign with Crimestoppers and the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) to highlight the plight of the workers. James Behan, head of operations for UKHTC, said: "It's probably one of the least understood areas of human trafficking. If you asked a member of the public they would probably understand sexual exploitation and child trafficking, but when it comes to labour trafficking it's a hidden crime." The idea is to raise the awareness of the general public as they're going about their daily business to see the signs. It can range from a 15-year-old being made to work in a field to a middle-aged man who has fallen on hard times and become alcohol-dependent. It isn't one specific group, one nationality, one age group, it's very encompassing." More than 1,000 victims of trafficking for forced labour have been referred to the centre since 2009 but Mr Behan said this could be "the tip of the iceberg", and he believes there are potentially "many more".The workers are typically used in low-paid jobs where they have to work for long hours, have to live in poor-quality, cramped housing and can suffer malnutrition because they are fed so little. Jobs include being made to work in private houses as well as the hospitality, farming, manufacturing and construction industries. Mr Behan said: "The people live in difficult conditions. Quite often they will share beds, it's very poor-quality housing and there's no real downtime because they have to work long hours. They have no possessions and no freedom."
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OSCE 10 (Organization for Security and Co-operation, “COMBATING TRAFFICKING AS MODERN-DAY SLAVERY: A MATTER OF RIGHTS, FREEDOMS AND SECURITY”, OSCE, 2010, http://www.osce.org/cthb/74730)
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Thousands are being trafficked for forced workers are forced to put in long hours with little food while living in squalid conditions More than 1,000 victims of trafficking for forced labour The workers are typically used in low-paid jobs where they have to work for long hours, have to live in poor-quality, cramped housing and can suffer malnutrition because they are fed so little The people live in difficult conditions. Quite often they will share beds, it's very poor-quality housing and there's no real downtime because they have to work long hours. They have no possessions and no freedom."
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Increased labor trafficking causes loss of freedom
| 1,873 | 50 | 598 | 313 | 7 | 99 | 0.022364 | 0.316294 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,025 |
Congress should look before it leaps. The current H-2 program, which provides temporary farmworkers and non-farm laborers for a variety of U.S. industries, is rife with labor and human rights violations committed by employers who prey on a highly vulnerable workforce. It harms the interests of U.S. workers, as well, by undercutting wages and working conditions for those who labor at the lowest rungs of the economic ladder. This program should not be expanded or used as a model for immigration reform. Under the current H-2 program overseen by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), employers brought about 106,000 guestworkers into this country in 2011 — approximately 55,000 for agricultural work and another 51,000 for jobs in forestry, seafood processing, landscaping, construction and other non-agricultural industries. But far from being treated like “guests,” these workers are systematically exploited and abused. Unlike U.S. citizens, guestworkers do not enjoy the most fundamental protection of a competitive labor market — the ability to change jobs if they are mistreated. Instead, they are bound to the employers who “import” them. If guestworkers complain about abuses, they face deportation, blacklisting or other retaliation. Bound to a single employer and without access to legal resources, guestworkers are routinely: Cheated out of wages Forced to mortgage their futures to obtain low-wage, temporary jobs Held virtually captive by employers or labor brokers who seize their documents Subjected to human trafficking and debt servitude Forced to live in squalid conditions Denied medical benefits for on-the-job injuries. Former House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel put it this way: “This guestworker program’s the closest thing I’ve ever seen to slavery.”1 Congressman Rangel’s conclusion is not mere hyperbole nor the first time such a comparison has been made. Former DOL official Lee G. Williams described the old “bracero” program — an earlier version of the guestworker program that brought thousands of Mexican nationals to work in the United States during and after World War II — as a system of “legalized slavery.2 On paper, the bracero program had many significant written legal protections, providing workers with what historian Cindy Hahamovitch, an expert on guestworker programs, has called “the most comprehensive farm labor contract in the history of American agriculture.3 Nevertheless, the bracero workers were systematically lied to, cheated and “shamefully neglected.4 In practice, there is little difference between the bracero program of yesterday and today’s H-2 guestworker program. Federal law and DOL regulations provide a few protections to H-2 guestworkers, but they exist mainly on paper. Government enforcement of guestworker rights is historically very weak. Private attorneys typically won’t take up their cause. And non-agricultural workers in the program are not eligible for federally funded legal services. The H-2 guestworker system also can be viewed as a modern-day system of indentured servitude. But unlike European indentured servants of old, today’s guestworkers have no prospect of becoming U.S. citizens. When their temporary work visas expire, they must leave the United States. They are, in effect, the disposable workers of the U.S. economy.
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Bauer et. al 13 (Mary Bauer is the director of the Southern Poverty Law Center; JD and Skadden Fellow @ UVA Law; College of William & Mary // ‘Close to Slavery: Guestworker Programs in the United States’ http://www.splcenter.org/sites/default/files/downloads/publication/SPLC-Close-to-Slavery-2013.pdf) L Shen
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Congress should look before it leaps. The current H-2 program is rife with labor and human rights violations committed by employers who prey on a highly vulnerable workforce. It harms the interests of U.S. workers y undercutting wages and working conditions for those who labor at the lowest rungs of the economic ladder. This program should not be expanded far from being treated like “guests,” these workers are systematically exploited and abused. Unlike U.S. citizens, guestworkers do not enjoy the most fundamental protection of a competitive labor market the ability to change jobs if they are mistreated , they are bound to the employers who “import” them If guestworkers complain about abuses, they face deportation, blacklisting or other retaliation. , guestworkers are routinely: Cheated out of wages Forced to mortgage their futures to obtain low-wage, temporary jobs Held virtually captive Subjected to human trafficking and debt servitude Forced to live in squalid conditions Denied medical benefits for on-the-job injuries. This guestworker program’s the closest thing I’ve ever seen to slavery Rangel’s conclusion is not mere hyperbole nor the first time such a comparison has been made Williams described the old “bracero” program — an earlier version of the guestworker program that brought thousands of Mexican nationals to work in the United States during and after World War II — as a system of “legalized slavery On paper, the bracero program had many significant written legal protections , the bracero workers were systematically lied to, cheated and “shamefully neglected there is little difference between the bracero program of yesterday and today’s H-2 guestworker program . Government enforcement of guestworker rights is historically very weak. Private attorneys typically won’t take up their cause. And non-agricultural workers in the program are not eligible for federally funded legal services. The H-2 guestworker system also can be viewed as a modern-day system of indentured servitude unlike European indentured servants of old, today’s guestworkers have no prospect of becoming U.S. citizens When their work visas expire, they must leave the U S They are, , the disposable workers of the U.S. economy.
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Guest-worker programs are deeply embedded in a history of violence and systematic exploitation—new programs will only preserve the notion that guest workers should be and can be rendered disposable
| 3,327 | 197 | 2,238 | 501 | 29 | 346 | 0.057884 | 0.690619 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,026 |
U.S. workers suffer as a result of these flaws in the guestworker system. As long as employers in low-wage industries can rely on an endless stream of vulnerable guestworkers who lack basic labor protections, they will have little incentive to hire U.S. workers or make jobs more appealing to domestic workers by improving wages and working conditions. Not surprisingly, many H-2 employers discriminate against U.S. workers, preferring to hire guestworkers, even though they are required to certify that no domestic workers are available to fill their jobs. In addition, it is well-documented that wages for U.S. workers are depressed in industries that rely heavily on guestworkers. This report is based on interviews with thousands of guestworkers, a review of the research on guestworker programs, scores of legal cases and the experiences of legal experts from around the country. The abuses described here are too common to blame on a few “bad apple” employers. They are the foreseeable outcomes of a system that treats foreign workers as commodities to be imported as needed without affording them adequate legal safeguards, the protections of the free market, or the opportunity to become full members of society. When the Southern Poverty Law Center published the first version of this report in 2007, we recommended reform or repeal of the H-2 program. Unfortunately, even after the enactment of modest reforms in recent years, guestworker programs today are still inherently abusive and unfair to both U.S. and foreign workers.
|
Bauer et. al 13 (Mary Bauer is the director of the Southern Poverty Law Center; JD and Skadden Fellow @ UVA Law; College of William & Mary // ‘Close to Slavery: Guestworker Programs in the United States’ http://www.splcenter.org/sites/default/files/downloads/publication/SPLC-Close-to-Slavery-2013.pdf) L Shen
|
many H-2 employers discriminate against U.S. workers, preferring to hire guestworkers, even though they are required to certify that no domestic workers are available to fill their jobs it is well-documented that wages for U.S. workers are depressed in industries that rely heavily on guestworkers. . They are the foreseeable outcomes of a system that treats foreign workers as commodities to be imported even after the enactment of modest reforms in recent years, guestworker programs today are still inherently abusive and unfair to both U.S. and foreign workers.
|
Guest workers face formidable discrimination
| 1,537 | 44 | 565 | 243 | 5 | 88 | 0.020576 | 0.36214 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,027 |
SUNNYSIDE, Wash. – Esther Abarca said the foreman drove to parts of the apple orchard that she had never seen. Deep into the farm, in what she could describe only as a “desolate place,” he parked the truck, reached over and tried to grab her. Weeping as she told her story, Abarca said the foreman got out of the truck when she resisted his advances. He opened the side door, climbed on top of her, and began to kiss and grope her. She called for help and tried to push him away, but he got her pants halfway off. “I kept screaming, but there was nobody there,” Abarca said. Abarca said she kept screaming as the foreman groped her. But then, as if suddenly chastened by her crying, kicking and pushing, she said he stopped. He told her that if she didn’t tell anyone what had happened, he’d give her $3,000 for a new car. Abarca, a mother of three, said she refused the money. “I told him that that was the very reason why I had come here to work, that I did not need him to give me any money at all,” she said. The foreman’s alleged first assault came in 2009, during the long days of the Yakima Valley apple harvest in central Washington. An immigrant from Mexico, Abarca was new to the Evans Fruit Co., one of the country’s largest apple producers. Nearly four years later, Abarca’s story was the subject of a federal court case testing whether the owners of Evans Fruit looked the other way as their workers claimed they were subjected to repeated sexual violence and harassment by an orchard foreman and crew bosses. It was a rare public accusation for an immigrant, many of whom fear retaliation and deportation if they speak up. Abarca was testifying in only the second case of a farmworker claiming sexual harassment to reach a federal court trial. Although the exact scope of sexual violence and harassment against agricultural workers is impossible to pinpoint, an investigation by The Center for Investigative Reporting and the Investigative Reporting Program at the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism reveals persistent peril for women working in the food industry. An estimated 560,000 women work on U.S. farms. In partnership with FRONTLINE and Univision, CIR and IRP spent nearly a year reviewing thousands of pages of documents and crisscrossing the nation – from the tightly ordered orchards of the Yakima Valley to the leafy tomato fields of southern Florida – to hear workers’ stories of sexual assault. Hundreds of female agricultural workers have complained to the federal government about being raped and assaulted, verbally and physically harassed on the job, while law enforcement has done almost nothing to prosecute potential crimes. In virtually all of the cases reviewed, the alleged perpetrators held positions of power over the women. Despite the accusations, these supervisors have remained on the job for years without fear of arrest. At the trial, Abarca was among more than a dozen women who had accused a foreman, Juan Marin, and a handful of crew leaders at Evans Fruit of sexually assaulting or harassing them. For her part, Abarca said she had been topping off bins with just-picked apples when the foreman called to her from his pickup. He told her to get in the truck, she testified. Marin said he never sexually assaulted or harassed Abarca or any of the other women, and he has not been arrested or prosecuted in criminal court for the allegations. At a federal civil trial this year, a jury found that whatever had happened at Evans Fruit, it did not create a sexually hostile work environment, which had to be established before the company could be held liable. Government attorneys who prosecuted the civil case have requested a new trial. In court filings, they called the verdict “unmoored from the actual evidence.
|
Yeung 2013, Bernice Yeun: Reporter in Center For investigative Reporting, SFGate News, “Female Workers face rape, harassment in US agriculture Industry” http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Female-workers-face-rape-harassment-in-U-S-4619767.php
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Abarca was testifying in only the second case of a farmworker claiming sexual harassment to reach a federal court trial. Although the exact scope of sexual violence and harassment against agricultural workers is impossible to pinpoint, an investigation by The Center for Investigative Reporting and the Investigative Reporting Program at the UC Berkeley Graduate School of Journalism reveals persistent peril for women working in the food industry. An estimated 560,000 women work on U.S. farms. CIR and IRP spent nearly a year reviewing thousands of pages of documents and crisscrossing the nation – from the tightly ordered orchards of the Yakima Valley to the leafy tomato fields of southern Florida – to hear workers’ stories of sexual assault. Hundreds of female agricultural workers have complained to the federal government about being raped and assaulted, verbally and physically harassed on the job, while law enforcement has done almost nothing to prosecute potential crimes. Despite the accusations, these supervisors have remained on the job for years without fear of arrest
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Women in the Ag Industry face Rape and Sexual Abuse – Plan only increases abuse
| 3,771 | 80 | 1,086 | 649 | 15 | 168 | 0.023112 | 0.25886 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,028 |
This collection concludes with an unusual twist: the narrative of a slaw owner. Abdel Nasser Ould Yessa, our colleague for over five years, is the foreign secretary of the Mauritanian anti-slavery group S.O.S. Slaves. He is also a former master, having been born into an elite clan of Mauritanian Arabo-Berbers who owned hundreds of black slaves. As Yessa recounts, he grew up surrounded by slaves, who existed to attend to his every need. His narrative describes Mauritania’s unusal system of chattel slavery, but also the moment that sparked his conversion from slave owner to abolitionist. Yessa’s unusual perspective reveals the human complexity of contemporary slavery, particularly in a society in which servitude is accepted as an established institution. His narrative of personal rebellion and ethical enlightenment sheds new light on the position of the slaveholder without drawing moral equivalents between the shareholder and the slave, as Yessa himself comes to define slavery as immoral and utterly unacceptable.
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Sage & Kasten 8 (Jesse Sage and Liora Kasten are directors of the American Anti-Slavery Group Enslaved: True Stories of Modern Day Slavery) LShen
|
the narrative of a slaw owner. Abdel Nasser Ould Yessa he grew up surrounded by slaves Yessa’s unusual perspective reveals the human complexity of contemporary slavery, particularly in a society in which servitude is accepted as an established institution His narrative of personal rebellion and ethical enlightenment sheds new light on the position of the slaveholder without drawing moral equivalents between the shareholder and the slave, as Yessa himself comes to define slavery as immoral and utterly unacceptable.
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Any instance of slavery must be rejected
| 1,026 | 40 | 519 | 157 | 7 | 78 | 0.044586 | 0.496815 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,029 |
Assuming we are able to predict who or what are optimized humans, this entire resultant worldview smacks of eugenics and Nazi racial science. This would involve valuing people as means. Moreover, there would always be a superhuman more super than the current ones, humans would never be able to escape their treatment as means to an always further and distant end. This means-ends dispute is at the core of Montagu and Matson's treatise on the dehumanization of humanity. They warn: "its destructive toll is already greater than that of any war, plague, famine, or natural calamity on record -- and its potential danger to the quality of life and the fabric of civilized society is beyond calculation. For that reason this sickness of the soul might well be called the Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse.... Behind the genocide of the holocaust lay a dehumanized thought; beneath the menticide of deviants and dissidents... in the cuckoo's next of America, lies a dehumanized image of man... (Montagu & Matson, 1983, p. xi-xii). While it may never be possible to quantify the impact dehumanizing ethics may have had on humanity, it is safe to conclude the foundations of humanness offer great opportunities which would be foregone. When we calculate the actual losses and the virtual benefits, we approach a nearly inestimable value greater than any tools which we can currently use to measure it. Dehumanization is nuclear war, environmental apocalypse, and international genocide. When people become things, they become dispensable. When people are dispensable, any and every atrocity can be justified. Once justified, they seem to be inevitable for every epoch has evil and dehumanization is evil's most powerful weapon.
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Berube 97 (Berube, David. Professor. English. University of South Carolina. “Nanotechnological Prolongevity: The Down Side.” 1997. http://www.cas.sc.edu/engl/faculty/berube/prolong.htm.)
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the dehumanization of humanity. is already greater than that of any war, plague, famine, or natural calamity and its potential danger to the quality of life and the fabric of civilized society is beyond calculation. it may never be possible to quantify the impact dehumanizing ethics may have had on humanity Dehumanization is nuclear war, environmental apocalypse, and international genocide. When people become things, they become dispensable. When people are dispensable, any and every atrocity can be justified. dehumanization is evil's most powerful weapon.
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Dehumanization outweighs nuclear war
| 1,721 | 36 | 562 | 277 | 4 | 84 | 0.01444 | 0.303249 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,030 |
The language of dehumanization is extensive. Members of dehumanized groups have been variously portrayed and seen as weeds, rats, vermin, dogs, cows, viruses, maggots, microbes, parasites, plague, pests, snakes, spiders, lice, locusts, cockroaches, cancerous cells, and malignant tumors. Less biologically, they have been portrayed and seen as heretics, heathens, infidels, barbarians, savages, subversives, or terrorists. And then there are the many specialized dehumanizing labels and stereotypes for specific groups around the world. What all of these conceptualizations have in common is that they restrict the moral universe to “us.” “We” are moral individuals who acknowledge and respect our obligations to each other. “They” are not just different but are not fully persons at all and thus not among those to whom our moral obligations extend: There can be no moral obligation to cockroaches, whether they are literally insects or the equally contemptible Tutsi. We have no moral obligation to the welfare of a cancer, maggot, or parasite eating away at the body politic. We need not respect the human rights of lice infesting our hair, weeds overwhelming our gardens, or vermin invading our homes. We cannot share a common moral ground with heretics, heathens, or infidels who deny (what we see as) the very basis for morality. There is no moral limit on what can be done to (those who have been labeled) savages, subversives, or terrorists. Dehumanization reinforces and extends dichotomization. If “they” are something other than human, then they cannot share interests, values, or commitments with “us.” Our own identities are diverse enough to affirm our individual humanity but converge with regard to whatever it is we see as the fundamental difference between any of us and any of them. That difference is so fundamental, in fact, that our moral obligations to others, which are of course obligations to other people, are not obligations to “them.” Thus we draw a moral circle around what we construe to be “us,” with a shared understanding of who lies within that circle, and who lies outside it (Brewer, 2001; Staub, 2001; Woolf & Hulsizer, 2005). Our moral obligations are obligations to each other and to our collective identity. This need not lead to action against “them,” provided we perceive them as keeping in their place and meeting what we perceive as our legitimate expectations. But human groups often get in each other’s way and fail to meet each other’s expectations. Groups often perceive each other as threatening, whether the threat is genuine or not. Under these circumstances we may come to feel morally obligated to join together against those who threaten or impede us, and do what must be done. If we and they are evenly matched, the result may be war. If not, it may be genocide.
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Moshman 07 (David, professor of educational psychology at the University of Nebraska, “Us and Them: Identity and Genocide”, 1-1-07, http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1086&context=edpsychpapers)
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dehumanization is extensive We” are moral individuals who acknowledge and respect our obligations to each other. “ We have no moral obligation to the welfare eating away at the body politic There is no moral limit on what can be done to savages, subversives, or terrorists Dehumanization reinforces and extends dichotomization own identities are diverse enough to affirm our individual humanity we draw a moral circle around what we construe to be “us,” with a shared understanding of who lies within that circle, and who lies outside it Our moral obligations are obligations to each other and to our collective identity. Groups often perceive each other as threatening, whether the threat is genuine or not. Under these circumstances we may come to feel morally obligated to join together against those who threaten or impede us, and do what must be done. If we and they are evenly matched, the result may be war. If not, it may be genocide.
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Reject dehumanization – causes violence and genocide
| 2,818 | 52 | 942 | 457 | 7 | 159 | 0.015317 | 0.347921 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,031 |
In conclusion, there is no doubt that the OSCE participating States have a decisive role in stepping up national and regional efforts in the fight against trafficking in human beings. Our future common commitment should start from acknowledging that trafficking in human beings exists as a widespread form of modern-day slavery and a component of illegal markets generated by organized crime. This situation requires a proactive approach aimed at simultaneously supporting and empowering trafficked persons in their aspiration to take their lives and their destinies into their own hands; stepping up the criminal justice response; and detecting emerging threats for security at the global and regional levels. To this end, we need strong political will, adequate human and financial resources and concrete action on the ground. This is our common challenge for the coming years and we appeal to all countries of the OSCE region to take action to forge their cultural, social, political and legislative environment for a new understanding of trafficking in human beings as well as an understanding of the plight of trafficked persons with a view to promoting solidarity and a humane attitude towards the victims. Our common and first challenge is to protect their rights, freedoms and human dignity.
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OSCE 10 (Organization for Security and Co-operation, “COMBATING TRAFFICKING AS MODERN-DAY SLAVERY: A MATTER OF RIGHTS, FREEDOMS AND SECURITY”, OSCE, 2010, http://www.osce.org/cthb/74730)
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States have a decisive role in stepping up national and regional efforts in the fight against trafficking in human beings commitment start from acknowledging trafficking exists as modern-day slavery is situation requires a proactive approach aimed at simultaneously supporting trafficked persons we need strong political will, adequate human and financial resources and concrete action on the ground. to take action to forge their cultural, social, political and legislative environment for a new understanding of trafficking in human beings as well as an understanding of the plight of trafficked persons and is to protect their rights, freedoms and human dignity.
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Dehumanization is a d rule – key to understanding the plight of the exploited
| 1,299 | 77 | 665 | 204 | 14 | 99 | 0.068627 | 0.485294 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,032 |
In the past several years, the DOL has proposed two sets of regulations to better protect non-agricultural H-2 workers – one related to wage rate guarantees and one more comprehensive set of regulations. These regulations also would better protect the jobs and wages of U.S. workers. Unfortunately for workers, neither set of regulations has gone into effect; employers have filed multiple lawsuits challenging them, and Congress has effectively blocked implementation of the new wage regulations. For workers, then, the abuses continue unabated. It is virtually impossible to create a guestworker program for low-wage workers that does not involve systemic abuse. The H-2 guestworker program should not be expanded in the name of immigration reform and should not be the model for the future flow of workers to this country. If the current H-2 program is allowed to continue, it should be completely overhauled. Recommendations for doing so appear at the end of this report.
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Bauer et. al 13 (Mary Bauer is the director of the Southern Poverty Law Center; JD and Skadden Fellow @ UVA Law; College of William & Mary // ‘Close to Slavery: Guestworker Programs in the United States’ http://www.splcenter.org/sites/default/files/downloads/publication/SPLC-Close-to-Slavery-2013.pdf) L Shen
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the DOL has proposed two sets of regulations to better protect non-agricultural H-2 workers one related to wage rate guarantees and one more comprehensive set of regulations. These regulations also would better protect the jobs and wages of U.S. workers. employers have filed multiple lawsuits challenging them, and Congress has effectively blocked implementation of the new wage regulations. For workers, then, the abuses continue unabated It is virtually impossible to create a guestworker program for low-wage workers that does not involve systemic abuse. The guestworker program should not be expanded and should not be the model for the flow of workers . If the current program is allowed to continue it should be completely overhauled.
|
Regulatory guest worker programs are impossible—employers and congress make new restrictions unattainable
| 975 | 105 | 741 | 154 | 12 | 115 | 0.077922 | 0.746753 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,033 |
Recognizing these problems, the DoL has attempted to better regulate – though not prohibit – the involvement of job contractors in the h-2A and h-2B programs in recent years. Unfortunately, these efforts have either fallen short or been defeated by employer challenges. In 2010, the DoL enacted new regulations that require farm labor contractors to list the employers that will actually be using the labor on their application for the temporary labor.69 The regulations also require labor contractors that apply for h-2A workers to post a bond. In theory, these measures should prevent sham companies with no assets from obtaining h-2A workers and hiring out their labor. In practice, however, farmworker advocates report that labor contractors are part 8 • lack of government enforcement 29 circumventing these protections by supplying fraudulent information to the DoL, including claims that they are growers or employers, to avoid the bond requirement. under the current h-2B regulations, job contractors may petition for h-2B workers by demonstrating that the ultimate employer, rather than the contractor, is experiencing a temporary labor shortage. The DoL has attempted to change this practice by proposing regulations that require job contractors to establish their own temporary labor shortage and to file applications jointly with their employer-clients as a pre-condition of applying for h-2B workers. These regulations have been blocked, however, by employer-driven legal challenges.
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Bauer et. al 13 (Mary Bauer is the director of the Southern Poverty Law Center; JD and Skadden Fellow @ UVA Law; College of William & Mary // ‘Close to Slavery: Guestworker Programs in the United States’ http://www.splcenter.org/sites/default/files/downloads/publication/SPLC-Close-to-Slavery-2013.pdf) LShen
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Recognizing these problems, the DoL has attempted to better regulate the involvement of job contractors . Unfortunately, these efforts have either fallen short or been defeated by employer challenges. the DoL enacted new regulations that require contractors to list the employers that will actually be using the labor on their application for the temporary labor In theory, these measures should prevent sham companies with no assets from obtaining h-2A workers however, farmworker advocates report that labor contractors are part of government enforcement The DoL has attempted to change this practice by proposing regulations that require job contractors to establish their own temporary labor shortage and to file applications jointly with their employer These regulations have been blocked, by employer-driven legal challenges.
|
Past efforts to regulate abuses have all failed
| 1,496 | 47 | 831 | 224 | 8 | 121 | 0.035714 | 0.540179 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,034 |
It often begins even before guestworkers are hired and is intended to ensure that u.S. workers are effectively locked out of the job. employers may bring in guestworkers only if u.S. workers are unavailable.77 As a result, the DoL requires employers to make an effort to recruit u.S. workers before it will approve their application for guestworkers. But because many h-2 employers simply prefer vulnerable foreign workers over domestic workers, employers often engage in discriminatory tactics to weed out u.S. workers. For example, during an investigation into illegal or fraudulent activities within the h-2B visa program, the u.S. Government Accountability office found that some employers “preferentially hired h-2B employees over American workers in violation of federal law.” undercover investigators captured recruiters suggesting tactics that employers could use to discourage u.S. applicants, such as requiring them to demonstrate their ability to run around carrying a 50-pound bag, scheduling interviews before 7 a.m., and requiring drug testing prior to interviews.78 one recent case against a large agricultural grower further illustrates how employers discriminate against u.S. workers. After receiving complaints from dozens of u.S. farmworkers, the equal employment opportunity office (eeoC) filed charges against the agricultural company hamilton Growers, Inc. (d/b/a Southern valley Fruit and vegetable, Inc.) in 2011 alleging that the grower discriminated against more than 600 u.S. workers based on race and national origin. over the course of three years, the grower fired virtually all of its u.S. employees while continuing to bring in Mexican h-2A workers. The eeoC alleged that the termination of at least 16 African Americans “was coupled with race-based comments by a management official.” The grower also subjected u.S. workers to disparate working terms and conditions, giving them fewer hours or denying them work when guestworkers were allowed to continue working. upon reaching a settlement in December 2012, u.S. workers succeeded in recovering $500,000 in back wages and damages.79 employers also routinely engage in discriminatory practices when it comes to hiring guestworkers. In fact, one federal appellate court has placed its stamp of approval upon such discrimination. In Reyes-Gaona v. NCGA,80 the 4th u.S. Circuit Court of Appeals found that even explicit age discrimination in hiring h-2A workers was not unlawful. In that case, there was little dispute that the recruiter, Del-Al Associates, which recruited thousands of guestworkers to the united States, told Luis reyes-Gaona, who applied in Mexico to be an h-2A worker in 32 close to slavery: guestworker programs in the united states north Carolina, that it was the policy of the north Carolina Growers Association (nCGA), for whom Del Al was recruiting, that nCGA would not accept new employees over the age of 40. The court found that because this choice had occurred outside the territory of the united States, it was not actionable under the Age Discrimination in employment Act. Although it is possible that other courts will reach a different conclusion on this issue, there is little doubt that such discrimination is pervasive.81 Indeed, the ability to choose the exact characteristics of a worker (male, age 25-40, Mexican, etc.) is one of the very factors that make guestworker programs attractive to employers.
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Bauer et. al 13 (Mary Bauer is the director of the Southern Poverty Law Center; JD and Skadden Fellow @ UVA Law; College of William & Mary // ‘Close to Slavery: Guestworker Programs in the United States’ http://www.splcenter.org/sites/default/files/downloads/publication/SPLC-Close-to-Slavery-2013.pdf) LShen
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because many h-2 employers simply prefer vulnerable foreign workers employers often engage in discriminatory tactics to weed out u.S. workers during an investigation into illegal or fraudulent activities within the h-2B visa program, the u.S. Government Accountability office found that some employers hired h-2B employees over American workers in violation of federal law. undercover investigators captured recruiters suggesting tactics that employers could use to discourage u.S. applicants such as requiring them to demonstrate their ability to run around carrying a 50-pound bag and drug testing employers discriminate against u.S. workers the grower discriminated against more than 600 u.S. workers based on race and national origin. over the course of three years, the grower fired virtually all of its u.S. employees while continuing to bring in Mexican h-2A workers The grower also subjected u.S. workers to disparate working terms and conditions, giving them fewer hours or denying them work when guestworkers were allowed to continue working employers also routinely engage in discriminatory practices when it comes to hiring guestworkers the ability to choose the exact characteristics of a worker is one of the very factors that make guestworker programs attractive to employers.
|
Employers are willing to overcome legal and moral hurdles to take advantage of guest workers
| 3,422 | 93 | 1,291 | 520 | 15 | 191 | 0.028846 | 0.367308 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,035 |
Exploitation has trailed the agricultural industry since the creation of large, specialized farms in the 1800s, and agricultural exceptionalism, insufficient legal protections for workers, and negligence in regulation enforcement are all to blame.1 “Agricultural exceptionalism” refers to the privileged relationship that farm operators have historically enjoyed with government officials. It was born out of a variety of characteristics 1 The history of non-agricultural, seasonal work is diverse and not always thoroughly documented, so this paper will focus on the history of seasonal work in the agricultural industry.5 specific to the agricultural industry in the 1800s, in particular the industry’s unusual labor needs and its economic power. Agriculture and other seasonal industries had rather exceptional labor needs, and used their economic power to secure favorable policies from Congress. Congress provided the immigration policies that supply farmowners’ workforce and removed the rights that would make their employment more expensive. Abysmal work conditions even today are in part the result of Congress perpetuating the near-total power of the employer over employees.
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Hansen 13 (Elise Hansen, Johnson scholar @ Washington & Lee, StudiedThe Exploitation of Legal, news director at On Poverty ‘Temporary Workers in the United States’ http://www.wlu.edu/documents/shepherd/academics/2013.Capstone.Hansen.pdf ) LShen
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Exploitation has trailed the agricultural industry since the creation of large, farms agricultural exceptionalism insufficient legal protections and negligence in regulation are all to blame Agricultural exceptionalism” refers to the privileged relationship that farm operators have historically enjoyed with government officials in particular the industry’s unusual labor needs and its economic power. Agriculture and other seasonal industries had rather exceptional labor needs, and used their economic power to secure favorable policies from Congress. Congress provided the immigration policies that supply farmowners’ workforce and removed the rights that would make their employment more expensive. Abysmal work conditions even today are in part the result of Congress perpetuating the near-total power of the employer over employees.
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Agricultural exceptionalism blocks enforcement of regulations
| 1,185 | 61 | 839 | 168 | 6 | 114 | 0.035714 | 0.678571 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,036 |
The relationship between migration, development, and human rights is a topic of growing interest among international organisations, academics, and civil society organisations. To varying degrees, international organisations such as the World Bank and the International Organization for Migration see remittances as an essential tool in the development of migrant-sending, underdeveloped countries. They also envisage international migration management as a core element in the design and implementation of migration policies that are apparently beneficial for all parties. We argue that this perspective, which has dominated the academic and policy agendas, is essentially onesided, de-contextualised, reductionist, and misleading. It overlooks the realm of neoliberal globalisation and unequal development in which contemporary migration is embedded. It also disregards human and labour rights as central and intrinsic elements of coherent migration and development policies, as well as the exploitation, social exclusion, human insecurity, and criminalisation suffered by international migrants. In addition, it masks most of the fundamental contributions made by migrants to the destination countries and ignores the costs of migration for the countries of origin; costs that go far beyond the overemphasised ‘positive’ impact of remittances. The purpose of this article is to provide some key elements for reframing the debate on migration, development, and human rights with particular emphasis on the promotion of a comprehensive, inclusive, and human-centred alternative agenda.
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Wise et. al 13 (Raúl Delgado Wise is the President of the International Network on Migration and Development; UNESCO Chair on Migration and Professor of the Doctoral Program in Develop Studies @ University of Zacatecas ‘Reframing the Debate on Migration, Development and Human Rights’ Published on May 14th, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/psp.1783/asset/psp1783.pdf?v=1&t=hixl31th&s=224cacb90c7f4f4111d4d22c5d5b44010e303fb9 ) LShen
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The relationship between migration, development, and human rights is a topic of growing interest . To varying degrees, international organisations see remittances as an essential tool in the development of migrant-sending countries. They also envisage international migration management that are apparently beneficial for all parties this perspective, which has dominated the academic and policy agendas, is essentially onesided, de-contextualised, reductionist, and misleading. It overlooks the realm of neoliberal globalisation and unequal development It also disregards human and labour rights as central and intrinsic elements of coherent migration and development policies, as well as the exploitation, social exclusion, human insecurity, and criminalisation suffered by international migrants it masks most of the fundamental contributions made by migrants to the destination countries and ignores the costs of migration for the countries of origin;
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The seemingly ‘mutually beneficial’ guest worker relationship is one sided and is distorted and reductionist
| 1,584 | 108 | 954 | 218 | 15 | 130 | 0.068807 | 0.59633 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,037 |
The United States’ long-standing argument with Mexico over illegal migration is on the wane. Net migration from Mexico is near zero and apprehensions of illegal immigrants (many non-Mexican) at the U.S. southern border are at levels last seen in 1970 (U.S. Border Patrol, n.d.).¶ Massive U.S. investments in border controls, aggressive interior enforcement measures, a Mexican economy that has been growing much faster than the U.S. economy since 2010, and ever-deeper cooperation with the United States on the issue explain a good part of the decline in illegal migration. But even more important is that a sustained decline in Mexican fertility means that fewer new Mexican workers are entering the labor force each year at the same time that job opportunities in the United States are much lower as a result of the ongoing economic distress.¶ The aftermath of the Great Recession has not only affected immigration between the United States and Mexico. Immigrants from lower- and middle-income countries have been particularly vulnerable to the destruction of jobs in most advanced economies. Migration—which has been both driving force and byproduct of globalization and the ever-increasing interconnectedness it fuels—now comes face to face with the global crisis.¶ The crisis may have ended a period in which the benefits of openness, including large-scale immigration, were embraced with relatively few questions across advanced economies. In the years ahead, immigration is likely to become more selective, and lower-skilled migrants are likely to be less welcome—at least as prospective permanent residents, let alone as fellow citizens
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Papademetriou 12 (DemetriosG. Papademetriou, Presidentofthe Migration Policy Institute, 9/12/12, “Migration Meets Slow Growth”, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/09/papademe.htm#author)
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The United States’ long-standing argument with Mexico over illegal migration is on the wane. Net migration from Mexico is near zero and apprehensions of illegal immigrants Massive U.S. investments in border controls, aggressive interior enforcement measures, a Mexican economy that has been growing much faster than the U.S. economy since 2010, and ever-deeper cooperation with the United States on the issue explain a good part of the decline in illegal migratio But even more important is that a sustained decline in Mexican fertility means that fewer new Mexican workers are entering the labor force each year . Immigrants from lower- and middle-income countries have been particularly vulnerable to the destruction of jobs in most advanced economies. Migration—which has been both driving force and byproduct of globalization and the ever-increasing interconnectedness it fuels—now comes face to face with the global crisis.¶ The crisis may have ended a period in which the benefits of openness, including large-scale immigratio In the years ahead, immigration is likely to become more selective, and lower-skilled migrants are likely to be less welcom
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Migration is moving back to Mexico – aging and economic growth
| 1,644 | 63 | 1,156 | 251 | 11 | 176 | 0.043825 | 0.701195 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,038 |
Estimations are conservative, as only industrial-phase residues were considered. This approach was used due to at least three reasons: the larger residue-density at industrial / processing plants; the often-polluting characteristic of residue flows at processing sites (e.g. water contamination from untreated manure in confined livestock production); and the role played by harvest-phase residues (straw) in soil cover, fertilization and protection against erosion. Results can be seen in Table IV.3. Results are compatible with other studies assessing the residue-to-biofuels potential in Mexico (IEA, 2010; REMBIO, 2011).¶ Residues from agricultural sectors beyond the thirteen products of interest were not considered in the assessment. In addition to that, the calculations also did not consider other large feedstock bases such as forestry residues and solid municipal waste. It is safe to assume that overall potentials would be much greater when also considering these mentioned residues from other agricultural products in Mexico.215¶ Estimation results should be taken with caution, since results depend on assumptions which may not be uniform for the total production of the products analyzed. The adopted conversion factors between biomass residues and their energy potentials, while based on specialized sources, are always subject to debate and could vary depending on regional characteristics of crops and livestock produced. Additionally, as in any theoretical potential, the capacity to deliver the potentials identified ultimately depends on various aspects of technological capacity, agricultural market dynamics, investment and conducive policy frameworks for bioenergy development.¶ The estimations did not consider agricultural residues which have a dual use as food, nor residues from harvest-phase of crops (which serve as a natural fertilizer to the fields). Figures in Table IV.3 also did not consider resources from forestry or municipal waste. Even so, the survey found large biofuel and bioelectricity production potentials based on low-cost agricultural residues for the 13 products analyzed in the country.¶ The production of biofuels from agricultural residues could also boost income in rural areas. By considering only residues from the 13 agricultural products analyzed, the production of bioelectricity, bioethanol and biodiesel could bring between USD 2.2 and 4.1 billion in additional revenue for Mexican agriculture. Biogas potentials could add another USD 234 million in revenue.¶ Based on the 13 products surveyed, bioelectricity could produce 10.55 per cent of the yearly national electricity consumption in Mexico; second generation bioethanol could replace 6.33 per cent of gasoline used (in energy terms); biomass-to-liquid biodiesel could replace 23.22 per cent of diesel demand and biogas could make up to 14.03 per cent of natural gas demand in the country.¶ Biofuels from residues could also deliver substantial employment to Mexican agriculture. Bioelectricity from agricultural residues could add over 39.000 new jobs (direct and indirect), bioethanol over 49.400 jobs; biodiesel 71.700 jobs and biogas 4.000 jobs. Those jobs would have better wages and demand higher qualification than the current average in Mexican¶ agriculture. While the average revenue per job created in the entire Mexican agricultural sector is USD 9.020 per person employed, equivalent in bioenergy has been estimated to average USD 57.400 per employee (Bacon and Kojima, 2011).¶ Before becoming reality, those potentials depend on the establishment of conducive frameworks to accelerate technology development and demand for biofuels produced from residues. Comprehensive policy frameworks to bring down costs and investment risks, as well as research and deployment of second generation biofuel technologies, either indigenously or in cooperation with other countries, will be critical for the realization of those potentials. Policy efforts should also go beyond the 13 products of interest, targeting all agricultural residues, as well as forestry products and municipal waste.
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UNCTAD 13 (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 7/9/13, “Mexico’s Agriculture Development: Perspective and Outlook”, 157-159)
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Estimations are conservative, as only industrial-phase residues were considered. Residues from agricultural sectors beyond the thirteen products of interest were not considered in the assessment. In addition to that, the calculations also did not consider other large feedstock bases such as forestry residues and solid municipal waste. It is safe to assume that overall potentials would be much greater when also considering these mentioned residues from other agricultural products in Mexico The estimations did not consider agricultural residues which have a dual use as food the survey found large biofuel and bioelectricity production potentials based on low-cost agricultural residues for the 13 products analyzed in the country. The production of biofuels from agricultural residues could also boost income in rural areas. the production of bioelectricity, bioethanol and biodiesel could bring between USD 2.2 and 4.1 billion in additional revenue for Mexican agricultur bioelectricity could produce 10.55 per cent of the yearly national electricity consumption in Mexico; second generation bioethanol could replace 6.33 per cent of gasoline use Biofuels from residues could also deliver substantial employment to Mexican agriculture , those potentials depend on the establishment of conducive frameworks to accelerate technology development and demand for biofuels produced from residues. Policy efforts should also go beyond the 13 products of interest, targeting all agricultural residues, as well as forestry products and municipal waste.
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Mexican workforce key to biofuels – residue and supply
| 4,108 | 55 | 1,550 | 590 | 9 | 222 | 0.015254 | 0.376271 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,039 |
Biofuels; Ethanol in Brazil and Climate Change¶ Global studies (Pacala 2004) show that renewable biofuels are a necessary part of this transformation. It will not be possible to reach the desired goal for limiting the increase in temperature without a significant increase in the participation of renewable biofuels in the new energy matrix. It is interesting to consider the impact on global temperature increase caused by the introduction in Brazil of fuel ethanol to replace gasoline. To do this we must first establish a baseline. It has been common lo use as a baseline a "business as usual" scenario that corresponds to what would occur if no action were taken to reduce emissions. This emissions scenario is adopted by the lPCC and is based on demographic projections, the intensity of energy use and the technology used for its generation. This is done for the whole world, although it may sometimes be compiled regionally. In the case of individual projects, such as those in the CDM, the baseline is constructed using an approved methodology that seeks to establish the most plausible scenario. The "business as usual" (BAU) baseline scenarios are hypothetical, or counterfactual - future scenarios that could happen, but have not happened-and therefore are not subject to objective demonstration or verification. Furthermore, these scenarios lend themselves to manipulation.
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Filho and Macedo 10 (Luiz, visiting researcher with the Institute for Advanced Studies of the University of São Paulo. He has a degree in Electronic Engineering from the Aeronautics Technology Institute (ITA), São José dos Campos, Brazil, and a doctoral degree from the University of Colorado, Boulder, U.S.A. and Dr. Isaias, Mechanical Engineer from Brazil's Aeronautical Institute, 2010, “Contribution of Ethanol to Climate Change,” http://sugarcane.org/resourcelibrary/books/Contribution%20of%20Ethanol%20to%20Climate%20Change%201.pdf)
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¶ Global studies show that renewable biofuels are a necessary part of this transformation. It will not be possible to reach the desired goal for limiting the increase in temperature without a significant increase in the participation of renewable biofuels consider the impact on global temperature increase caused by the introduction in Brazil of fuel ethanol to replace gasoline This emissions scenario is adopted by the lPCC and is based on demographic projections,
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Biofuels key to solve warming
| 1,385 | 29 | 467 | 218 | 5 | 73 | 0.022936 | 0.334862 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,040 |
A combination of an aging population and economic growth means there will be fewer Mexicans in a position to migrate to the United States and more job opportunities within Mexico itself. Even though out-of-touch nativists continue to shout inflamed rhetoric warning of the threat of millions of Mexicans waiting to cross the border to lay waste to the American Dream, the reality is that the supply of people looking to leave Mexico is not limitless. All evidence suggests that Mexico’s demographic and economic shifts will only increase in the future, further decreasing the pressures to emigrate.¶ These shifts in Mexico will deeply affect the shape of immigration in the United States. Mexican immigrants comprise close to 60 percent of undocumented immigrants (6.5 million out of 11.2 million) and 30 percent of all immigrants (11.5 million out of 38.5 million).¶ Here we take a closer look at the changes within Mexico and offer recommendations for adjusting to a future with far fewer Mexican immigrants seeking to enter the country.¶ Why immigration from Mexico is declining¶ The aging population¶ The bottom line is that changing demographics mean that Mexico will have less surplus population to send to the United States. One of these changes is that the country’s population is leveling out. Mexico’s birth rate has been in a freefall since the 1960s when the average Mexican mother gave birth to nearly seven children over the course of her life. Today that number is down to 2.1 children per woman—just more than the United States’ present fertility rate of two children per woman. (see Figure 1)¶ The characteristics of Mexico’s population have changed as the country has gradually aged. While in the 1960s more than 45 percent of Mexico’s population was under age 15, by 2009 less than 30 percent of the population was in its childhood years (0 to 14). On the flipside, the elderly population above 65 has slowly crept up from 3 percent in the 1960s to 6 percent in 2009. (see Figure 2)¶ Mexico’s median age tells a similar tale. In the 1960s it was only 18 years of age but by 2010 it had risen to 26, suggesting an aging population.¶ What these shifts tell us is that soon there will be far fewer people seeking to enter the labor force in Mexico and far more people leaving it. An important factor in pushing young Mexicans to leave their home country is quickly evaporating with fewer people competing for jobs.¶ Economic improvements¶ Mexico’s economic fortunes have increased as its demographics have shifted. Per capita GDP, which hovered close to $6,000 at the turn of the new millennium, shot up to a high of more than $10,000 by 2008, before the country was hit by the global economic slump. (see Figure 3)¶ Likewise, the percentage of the population living in poverty—based on the cost to feed themselves and their families—has fallen significantly since the middle of the decade, from roughly 40 percent between 2002 and 2007 to less than 20 percent currently. While the official unemployment rate still remains at 5.2 percent, up from 2.6 percent at the turn of the millennium, once Mexico emerges from the recession, its economy, along with job availability, will only grow.¶ This economic development, coupled with the demographic changes, increased border security, and the scarcity of jobs within the United States during the recession, has led to an unprecedented drop in unauthorized immigration from Mexico. The Pew Hispanic Center reports that the average inflow of undocumented immigrants from Mexico fell from around 500,000 per year from 2000 to 2005 to only 150,000 per year in 2007 through 2009.¶ Likewise, Figure 4 shows that the number of unauthorized immigrants from Mexico living in the United States began to decline after 2007 following a precipitous increase at the turn of the century.¶
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Wolgin and Garcia 11(Philip E. Wolgin and Ann Garcia, Senior Policy Analyst at the Center for American Progress and Policy analyst at the center for American progress, 8/8/11, “What Changes in Mexico Mean for U.S. Immigration Policy”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/immigration/news/2011/08/08/10203/what-changes-in-mexico-mean-for-u-s-immigration-policy/)
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A combination of an aging population and economic growth means there will be fewer Mexicans in a position to migrate to the United States and more job opportunities within Mexico itself the reality is that the supply of people looking to leave Mexico is not limitless. All evidence suggests that Mexico’s demographic and economic shifts will only increase in the future, further decreasing the pressures to emigrate.¶ The bottom line is that changing demographics mean that Mexico will have less surplus population to send to the United States. One of these changes is that the country’s population is leveling out. Mexico’s birth rate has been in a freefall since the 1960s The characteristics of Mexico’s population have changed as the country has gradually aged. While in the 1960s more than 45 percent of Mexico’s population was under age 15, by 2009 less than 30 percent of the population was in its childhood years What these shifts tell us is that soon there will be far fewer people seeking to enter the labor force in Mexico and far more people leaving it. An important factor in pushing young Mexicans to leave their home country is quickly evaporating with fewer people competing for jobs.¶ Mexico’s economic fortunes have increased as its demographics have shifted. Per capita GDP, which hovered close to $6,000 at the turn of the new millennium, shot up to a high of more than $10,000 by 2008 once Mexico emerges from the recession, its economy, along with job availability, will only grow.¶ This economic development, coupled with the demographic changes, increased border security, and the scarcity of jobs within the United States during the recession, has led to an unprecedented drop in unauthorized immigration from Mexico
|
Migration is moving back to mexico-Middle Class rising and Aging
| 3,835 | 64 | 1,741 | 638 | 10 | 287 | 0.015674 | 0.449843 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,041 |
Thanks to an improving economy in their country, Mexicans are staying home.¶ A Gallup poll released Monday said just 14 percent of Mexicans say they would emigrate from the country, compared to 21 percent in 2007.¶ In an interesting twist, the current numbers are almost identical to the 11 percent of Americans who say they would leave the U.S. if given the opportunity.¶ Since taking office, Mexico's new president, Enrique Peña Nieto, has made it a point to stress that his country "will work to improve the quality of life and opportunities in Mexico so that migration is a personal decision and not a necessity."¶ Due to burgeoning economic opportunities, the United States' largest immigrant group already has few reasons to cross the border.¶ As the United States continues to struggle to gain economic momentum following the 2008 recession, the Mexican unemployment rate has dropped to just 5 percent. U.S. Hispanics still have one of the highest unemployment rates in the country, at 9.8 percent.¶ Antonio Garza, a former U.S .Ambassador to Mexico, says the poll “is a snapshot of a trend that you have seen in the country over the last several years.”¶ “An expanding middle class in Mexico means more people are working here,” he said.¶ Mexico’s economic performance is closely linked to the U.S., where it sends almost 80 percent of its exports.¶
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Capobres 13(Kacy Capobres, Reporter for Fox News, 2/26/13, “Mexico’s Strengthening Economy Could bode well for Immigratoin Reform”, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/money/2013/02/26/mexicos-strengthening-economy-could-bode-well-for-immigration-reform/#ixzz2YYvd6lcI)
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Thanks to an improving economy in their country, Mexicans are staying home.¶ 14 percent of Mexicans say they would emigrate from the country, compared to 21 percent in 2007.¶ Nieto, has made it a point to stress that his country "will work to improve the quality of life and opportunities in Mexico so that migration is a personal decision and not a necessity."¶ Due to burgeoning economic opportunities, the United States' largest immigrant group already has few reasons to cross the border.¶ the Mexican unemployment rate has dropped to just 5 percent An expanding middle class in Mexico means more people are working here
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Migration is moving back to mexico-Nieto
| 1,357 | 40 | 624 | 226 | 6 | 104 | 0.026549 | 0.460177 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,042 |
The roots of Mexico-US labor migration lie in the US-government approved recruitment of about five million Mexican workers between 1917 and 1921 and again between 1942 and 1964, as well as fast labor force and slow and uneven job growth in Mexico, especially since the 1980s. The result of these guest worker programs and emigration pressure was distortion and dependence: some US farmers made investment decisions that assumed there would be a continued influx of Mexican workers, and some Mexicans became dependent on US jobs and earnings. A combination of increased demand-pull pressures in the US, especially during the job booms of the late 1980s and late 1990s, and increased supply-push pressure in Mexico, especially after economic crises in the mid-1980s and mid- 1990s, helped to diffuse the origins and destinations of Mexican migrants—more are coming from southern and urban Mexico, and more are going into farm and nonfarm jobs outside the western states. The 2004 US labor force of 148 million included 19 million Hispanics (13 percent), with perhaps 40 percent born in Mexico. The Hispanic share of net US labor force growth over the past decade, 44 percent, is three times the Hispanic share of the labor force.1 Mexico-US trade has increased as a result of NAFTA, but the rate of increase in Mexico-US migration has been even faster.
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Martin 5 (Phillip Martin is the Chair of the Comparative Immigration and Integration at UC Davis; PhD @ University of Wisconsin-Madison ‘NAFTA and Mexico-US Migration’ Published on December 16th, 2005 giannini.ucop.edu/Mex_USMigration.pdf) Lshen
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The roots of Mexico-US labor migration lie in the US-government approved recruitment of about five million Mexican workers The result of these guest worker programs and emigration pressure was distortion and dependence US farmers made investment decisions that assumed there would be a continued influx of Mexican workers and some Mexicans became dependent on US jobs and earnings increased demand-pull pressures in the US, e and increased supply-push pressure in Mexi helped to diffuse the origins and destinations of Mexican migrants—more are coming from southern and urban Mexico, and more are going into farm and nonfarm jobs outside the western states. The Hispanic share of net US labor force growth over the past decade, 44 percent, is three times the Hispanic share of the labor force.
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US guest worker programs trade off with Mexican labor—creates dependent networks
| 1,350 | 80 | 793 | 221 | 11 | 126 | 0.049774 | 0.570136 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,043 |
Philip Martin offers an economic means to deal with such problems of global labor migration by proposing a better system of managing labor migration through improved guest worker programs that will reduce its negative economic and human rights consequences. Using the terminology Martin adopts in his paper, guest worker programs have become very popular in advanced industrialized countries because they are in principle designed to promote “virtuous” migratory cycles through the “three Rs” by recruiting temporary migrant laborers for certain industrial sectors with labor shortages, allowing them to benefit economically by sending remittances, and then returning them to their countries of origin when they are no longer needed through a rotation system. However, as Martin’s global survey of guest worker programs in his book demonstrates, most of them have set off vicious cycles by encouraging further migration, subjecting migrant workers to economic exploitation and human rights abuses, and promoting their permanent settlement.
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Tsuda 8 (Takeyuki Tsuda—PhD in anthropology @ UC Berkeley; Associate director of Immigration Studies @ UC San Diego; Professor at the School of evolution and social change @ ASU Bringing Humanity Back into International Migration: Anthropological Contributions http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1525/city.2007.19.1.19/asset/city.2007.19.1.19.pdf?v=1&t=hj0cayfg&s=2eb47b16fcdf8f39bd60596babc54bb03b7f9b92) LShen
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offers an economic means to deal with problems of global labor migration by proposing a system of managing labor migration through improved guest worker programs guest worker programs have become popular because they are in principle designed to promote migratory cycles through recruiting temporary migrant laborers for certain industrial sectors with labor shortages, allowing them to benefit economically by sending remittances, and then returning them to their countries of origin when they are no longer needed through a rotation system
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Guest worker programs promote migration
| 1,039 | 39 | 541 | 152 | 5 | 80 | 0.032895 | 0.526316 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,044 |
In addition to the economic factors, Richard Mines and Douglas Massey (1985) believe that to understand the "phenomenon of international migration" one must understand how immigrants form ties that develop and change over time (Mines and Massey 1985, 104). This change helps make migration a social process. Sociologists have found that the process begins when a country, such as the U.S. encourages or recruits from labor surplus countries such as Mexico through guest worker programs. The process evolves because the social and economic situations of migrants change over time. For example, the braceros closer to theE border could afford to move back and forth daily across the border without an increasing expense burden. However, as migrants began to move toward the Pacific North, for example, it was no longer feasible to travel as often to see their family. Thus, they began the process of commuting seasonally to their country of origin. According to Mines and Massey and Mines (1985) "the cost and benefits of migration become cleared and others are induced to move.the cost drops, slowly at first and then dramatically, as friend and relatives acquire contacts and knowledge in the receiving society. They also point out that some migrants choose to settle in a particular places and create a "ready made support network for further migration" (Massey and Mines 1985, 105) The characteristics that influence individuals to migrate depend on their own characteristics and vary from person to person and place to place. These differences may lie in the different levels of education, work history, and prior migration experiences. In addition, when deciding whether the risks, costs, and distance of migrating are beneficial or not, the individual must also take into consideration characteristics in the place of origin that also influence migration such as levels employment/unemployment ages, speed of technological changes, economic and political situations, socio-economic status, social networks, and local opportunities (Kanaiaupuni 2000). Studies find that people with a better economic situation are less likely to migrate than are people of lower incomes. However, in the past few decades there has been a change in the demographics of the people that migrate as well as an increase in more skilled, urban, and educated individuals migrating from Mexico to the United States.
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Rodriguez 2 (Esmeralda Rodriguez is a fellow at the Center for International Studies ‘Patterns of Mexican Migration to the United States’ http://www1.appstate.edu/~stefanov/proceedings/rodriguez.htm ) LShen
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that to understand international migration" one must understand how immigrants form ties that develop and change over time Sociologists have found that the process begins when the U.S. encourages or recruits from labor surplus countries such as Mexico through guest worker programs. "the cost and benefits of migration become cleared and others are induced to move.the cost drops, slowly and then dramatically, as friend and relatives acquire contacts and knowledge in the receiving society some migrants choose to settle in a particular places and create a "ready made support network for further migration in the past few decades there has been a change in the demographics of the people that migrate as well as an increase in more skilled and educated individuals migrating from Mexico to the United States.
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Guest worker programs catalyzes chains of migration
| 2,394 | 51 | 810 | 373 | 7 | 129 | 0.018767 | 0.345845 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,045 |
Tighter U.S. immigration enforcement, as well as brutal cartel-driven violence along the Mexican border, have deterred many potential workers from attempting to cross.¶ And, amid a rebounding economy in Mexico, Mexican farms are facing their own labor shortage and have plenty of work to offer at home.¶ The farm lobby and its libertarian allies want you to concentrate on the central reason Hecht offers: border enforcement and cartel violence. The problem is that the evidence doesn't really support this view very well. ¶ In a recent post on the Oxford University Press blog, Taylor and co-author Diane Charlton explain:¶ Tighter border enforcement and drug-related violence along the border may deter migration, but our analysis suggests that for US agriculture their main effect is largely secondary, reinforcing a negative trend in rural Mexicans' willingness to do farm work. For example, after the "great recession" in 2008, the share of Mexican immigrants working in agriculture decreased more than the share working in non-agriculture. The recession had a large negative impact on construction and service jobs in the non-farm sector while labor demand in the farm sector remained steady and commodity prices rose. If unemployed workers in the non-farm sector sought jobs on US farms during the recession, then one might expect the supply of agricultural labor to increase. Data show that some immigrants did shift from non-farm to farm work after the recession, but more shifted from farm to non-farm in the US. If the decrease in immigration in recent years were the result of increases in border patrol or drug-related violence, then the decrease in farm labor supply should be similar to the decrease in non-farm labor supply, but the data show the opposite.¶ In other words, the supply of farm labor is shrinking faster than the supply of non-farm labor. Which means that a good deal of the supply problem is not about the borders. Rather, it's competition from better jobs.¶ This isn't confined to Mexicans or Mexican-Americans in California. It's happening in Mexico, too.¶ "Mexico is following the pattern of countries around the world: as its income rises, workers shift out of farm work into other sectors. Mexico's per-capita income, adjusted for the cost of living, now exceeds $15,000 per year. Growth in Mexico's non-agricultural employment began before the recession and persists now. As non-farm opportunities increase, the Mexican workforce will continue moving out of agriculture," Taylor and Charlton write.¶ So what should farms do to attract labor?¶ "US farmers will need to offer higher wages to induce new workers to migrate northward to US farm jobs," write Taylor and Charlton.¶ But the farm lobby has another idea. Instead of paying the workers larger shares of farm revenues, they want to pay them with citizenship.¶ "Farm lobbyists and elected officials are discussing remedies that include granting legal status to more than 1 million undocumented farmworkers in the United States and establishing an expanded guest worker visa program for agriculture to ensure a steady supply of laborers," Hecht reports.¶ From the point of view of farm owners, the nice thing about granting legal residency to farm workers is that they get to increase the value of a laborer's compensation without increasing what the farm owner has to pay. The farm profits stay private but the labor costs are socialized.¶ Expanding the guest worker visa program is great for farmers because it effectively blocks out non-farm competition for these workers. In fact, one of the farm lobby groups is proposing requiring multiyear contracts in exchange for legal residency. They don't have to worry about workers being lured away by factories or retail outlets or construction jobs because the terms of their visa lock them in to farm work. ¶ In short, the farm lobby's response to increased competition for Mexican labor is to pay workers with U.S. citizenship and prevent other businesses from competing for these workers. Which makes perfect sense. Why improve working conditions or pay workers competitive wages when you can just get the government to bail out your noncompetitive compensation?
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Carney 13(John Carney, Senior Editor at CNBC.com, 3/12/13,
“What’s Really Behind the Decline in Mexican Farm Workers?”, http://www.cnbc.com/id/100547277)
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Tighter U.S. immigration enforcement have deterred many potential workers from attempting to cross. amid a rebounding economy in Mexico, Mexican farms are facing their own labor shortage and have plenty of work to offer at home.¶ analysis suggests that for US agriculture their main effect is largely secondary, reinforcing a negative trend in rural Mexicans' willingness to do farm work. Mexican immigrants working in agriculture decreased more than the share working in non-agriculture the supply of farm labor is shrinking faster than the supply of non-farm labor. Which means that a good deal of the supply problem is not about the borders. Rather, it's competition from better jobs.¶ It's happening in Mexico, too.¶ So what should farms do to attract labor?¶ paying the workers larger shares of farm revenues, they want to pay them with citizenship.¶ Farm lobbyists and elected officials are discussing remedies that include granting legal status to more than 1 million undocumented farmworkers in the United States and establishing an expanded guest worker visa program for agriculture to ensure a steady supply of laborers, Expanding the guest worker visa program is great for farmers because it effectively blocks out non-farm competition for these workers. In short, the farm lobby's response to increased competition for Mexican labor is to pay workers with U.S. citizenship and prevent other businesses from competing for these workers
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US AG workers tradeoff with Mexican ag workers-shrinking labour supply
| 4,206 | 70 | 1,446 | 672 | 10 | 225 | 0.014881 | 0.334821 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,046 |
This article examines a case study that sheds light on the potential impact of NAFTA on migration of workers in the agricultural sector. Mexican agriculture is a pivotal sector in the migration debate because the liberalization of corn prices is expected to result in the displacement of at least several hundred thousand small farmers, according to estimates provided by a number of studies (Hinojosa-Ojeda and Robinson, 1992; Levy and van Wijnbergen, 1991). At the same time, export horticulture is a sector that is expected to grow and could thereby absorb displaced small-scale corn producers. However, new jobs in export agriculture can also increase the number of people at risk of migrating to the United States from southern Mexico by providing them with a stopover place in northern Mexico and lowering the costs and risks of migration to the United States.] An analysis of the effects of growth of agro-export production on migration over the last fifteen years can shed light on the future effects of NAFTA because economic integration to a large degree has already taken place. Between 1986 and 1991, U.S.-Mexico trade almost doubled as Salinas accelerated free-trade policies begun when Mexico joined the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (U.S. Department of Commerce, 1992). Horticultural exports to the United States doubled between 1980 and 1990 (Runsten and Young, 1992) as a consequence of U.S. investment and technology transfer, the incorpora? tion of Mexican exports into U.S. marketing systems, and growth in U.S. demand (Cook, 1992). Over the last ten years, migration linkages between rural Mexican villages and U.S. job sites have also matured and expanded. The 1986 U.S. immigra tion law reforms both failed to stem illegal Mexican migration (Bustamante, 1989; Donato et al, 1992) and increased the number of legal Mexican migrants in the United States. More family migration, increased settlement, and dispersal throughout U.S. agriculture and into other economic sectors have supplemented the traditional seasonal migration of single males to work in U.S. labor-intensive horticulture production (Massey etal, 1987; Martin, 1992; Cornelius, 1992). As the flows of investment and trade in agriculture increased, historical patterns of Mexico-U.S. migration of agricultural workers have also changed. 'Stage' migration, with the migrant trail beginning in southern Mexico, stopping temporarily in commercial Mexican agricultural venues, and continuing into the United States is an important new outcome of the growth of commer? cial agro-export zones in northwest Mexico. This article presents evidence that growth in employment in export agricul? ture has increased stage or 'stepwise' migration to the United States. This trend suggests that an expansion of agro-export production induced by NAFTA is likely to increase the flow of stage migrants, primarily because of the predicted displacement of large numbers of small corn producers in the central and southern part of the country.2 The proposition that expanded employment in export agriculture will lead to greater U.S. migration is examined using a case study of indigenous migrants from Oaxaca who work in labor-intensive horticultural production in both Baja California, Mexico, and the U.S. State of California.
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Zabin and Hughes ‘95 Carol Zabin, PhD and researcher in labor economics, and Sallie Hughes, researcher in Latin American political communication; “Economic Integration and Labor Flows: Stage Migration in Farm Labor Markets in Mexico and the United States;” 1995; International Migration Review, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 395-422, The Center for Migration Studies of New York, Inc.; http://www.jstor.org/stable/2546787 JSTOR RMJ
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Mexican agriculture is a pivotal sector because liberalization of corn prices is expected to result in the displacement of at least several hundred thousand small farmers, according to estimates provided by a number of studies export horticulture is expected to grow and absorb displaced small-scale corn producers new jobs in export agriculture increase the number of people at risk of migrating to the U S from southern Mexico by providing them with a stopover place in northern Mexico and lowering the costs and risks of migration to the U S migration linkages between rural Mexican villages and U.S. job sites have matured and expanded immigra tion law reforms increased the number of legal Mexican migrants in the U S More family migration, increased settlement, and dispersal throughout U.S. agriculture and into other economic sectors have supplemented the traditional seasonal migration of single males to work in U.S. labor-intensive horticulture production 'Stage' migration beginning in southern Mexico, stopping in commercial Mexican agricultural venues, and continuing into the United States is an important new outcome growth in employment in export agricul? ture has increased stage or 'stepwise' migration to the United States expansion of agro-export production increase the flow of stage migrants, primarily because of the predicted displacement of large numbers of small corn producers in the central and southern part of the country
|
Aff pulls agricultural workers from Mexico – displaces small Mexican farmers and net increases illegal immigration
| 3,304 | 114 | 1,452 | 504 | 16 | 222 | 0.031746 | 0.440476 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,047 |
Recent data suggest that an increasingly large proportion of Mexican migrants to this country, both documented and undocumented, are staying longer and appear to be settling here. This trend is a function of both the Mexican economic crisis and the rising demand for low-wage labor in the U.S. economy. Migrants to San Diego, Chavez reveals, base their decisions to enter the community and to settle there on the availability of employment; more jobs are available for longer-term immigrants. Furthermore, San Diego immigrants are overwhelmingly young and have young children, many of whom are born in the United States. Their households often contain members who are not part of the immediate family, and the number of workers per household is higher than among documented immigrants. For this young community, education and child and maternal health care are primary concerns, and the immigrants avail themselves of local resources – a fact not fully considered by those studying social services and social integration. According to Chávez, “The long-term impact of immigration on the local community will depend on the larger society’s resolution [of] this question of social integration. The price the local community pays for paradise could pale in comparison to future costs, should society fail to plan for the eventual integration of long-term undocumented residents and their families.” Rafael Alarcón explores the concept of norteñizacíon – the way in which Mexican migration to the United States has caused certain areas of Mexico to become dependent on U.S. labor markets. These dependent areas, usually socially cohesive rural communities, have in effect specialized in producing international migrant workers. This has led to profound transformations in the economic, political, familial and cultural realms. Alcarón examines the broad impact of this process on the town of Chavinda, Michoacán, which has a tradition of sending many of its workers to the United States. Over one-fourth of the adult males of Chavinda reported having worked in the United States sometime between 1980 and 1982, and over half had worked in the United States at some point in their lives. He found that from March to November each year, a significant proportion of the young adult male population leaves the town for the United States. As a result, older men and children have played an increasingly important role in the town’s agricultural sector. Women, however, have not become further involved outside the home. Chavindans use their U.S.-earned income primarily for subsistence as well as for home purchase and improvement. The strong demand for housing by returned migrants has sparked land speculation and rapidly rising housing prices as well as a tendency toward urban-type modernization. According to Alarcón, for many peasant families, migration to the north actually subsidizes their desire to remain tied to their land. However the savings accumulated from work in the United States are seldom sufficient to permit a peasant family to initiate empresarial agricultural production, especially given the poor quality of local resources; rather, maintaining their higher standard of living while retaining residences in the rural community requires a perpetuation of the migration process. The norteñizacíon of cultural life in Chavinda should not be confused with North Americanization. Migrants from Chavinda in the United States are influenced by Chicanos and other Mexicans, but have little direct contact with Anglo culture because of the social discrimination they experience here. Bernardo González-Aréchiga argues that U.S. immigration policy has segregated borderland Mexicans according to their documented or undocumented status. The undocumented in the United States and Mexico have less mobility and employment opportunities than the documented, and they represent a captive market for commerce and services on the Mexican side of the border. The documented border population, in contrast, can choose between markets for the purchase of goods and services, may hold jobs on either side of the border, and are able to participate more freely in the border economy and society.
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Bustamante et al. ’92 “U.S.-Mexico Relations: Labor Market Interdependence;” ed. Jorge A. Bustamante, prof. Sociology @ Notre Dame, Clark Winton Reynolds, Raúl Andrés Hinojosa Ojeda; 1992; Stanford Univ. Press http://books.google.com/books?id=QcSrAAAAIAAJ RMJ
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an increasingly large proportion of Mexican migrants are staying longer and settling here a function of the rising demand for low-wage labor in the U.S. economy. Migrants base their decisions to enter and settle on the availability of employment; more jobs are available for longer-term immigrants Alarcón explores the concept of norteñizacíon – the way in which Mexican migration to the United States has caused certain areas of Mexico to become dependent on U.S. labor markets. These dependent areas, usually socially cohesive rural communities, have in effect specialized in producing international migrant workers. This has led to profound transformations in the economic, political, familial and cultural realms Chavinda has a tradition of sending many of its workers to the United States Over one-fourth of the adult males of Chavinda reported having worked in the United States sometime between 1980 and 1982, and over half had worked in the United States at some point in their lives from March to November each year, a significant proportion of the young adult male population leaves the town for the United States. As a result, older men and children have played an increasingly important role in the town’s agricultural sector. Women, however, have not become further involved outside the home strong demand for housing by returned migrants has sparked land speculation and rapidly rising housing prices as well as urban-type modernization savings accumulated from work in the United States are seldom sufficient to permit a peasant family to initiate empresarial agricultural production, especially given the poor quality of local resources U.S. immigration policy has segregated borderland Mexicans according to their documented or undocumented status
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Increased immigration destroys rural Mexican agriculture – forces reliance on remittances and they give up on farms
| 4,191 | 115 | 1,764 | 643 | 17 | 270 | 0.026439 | 0.419907 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,048 |
Processes of global restructuring leading to the integration of developing countries into the global economy can lead to increased inequality and poverty in these countries. Western subsidies and protectionism, combined with unequal trade relations within the global economy have undermined the prices of agricultural produce. In Mexico, forexample, this has led to a wave of cheap, subsidised US maize flooding the domestic market, making it impossible for Mexican subsistence farmers to compete, and increasing flows of emigration from rural areas. At the same time, processes of global restructuring have led to increasing pressure on labour to become more mobile and flexible, which has resulted in growing migration flows worldwide. Against this backdrop, Mexico has become a major exporter of labour power to the US. Migrants from rural areas are still mainly men, although more and more women are taking part in this migration process.This contribution looks at the implications of processes of global restructuring for gender relations in the lives of rural Mexican women who stay behind when their husbands migrate. Based upon fieldwork research in rural Mexican communities, my contribution illustrates how these women are influenced by, and drawn into, processes of global restructuring in two ways: indirectly through the migration of their family members, anddirectly through their participation in 'productive projects' in partnership with migrant women living in the US. ..PAT.
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ISA ’08 International Studies Association, “Uncovering Sites of Global Restructuring: The Case of Rural Mexican Women;” 2008; publ. ISA Conference Papers; EBSCO RMJ
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global restructuring leading to the integration of developing countries into the global economy can lead to increased inequality and poverty in these countries. Western subsidies and protectionism unequal trade relations undermined the prices of agricultural produce. In Mexico this has led to a wave of cheap, subsidised US maize flooding the domestic market, making it impossible for Mexican subsistence farmers to compete, and increasing flows of emigration from rural areas processes of global restructuring have led to increasing pressure on labour to become more mobile and flexible, which has resulted in growing migration flows worldwide Mexico has become a major exporter of labour power to the US.
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Economic engagement floods the Mexican market with cheap corn and collapses rural ag
| 1,492 | 84 | 707 | 223 | 13 | 107 | 0.058296 | 0.479821 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,049 |
Changes in relative factor prices, such as the cost of farm technology and the wages of immigrant workers in the United States, therefore affect how the sector will develop within and between Mexico and the United States. The state of California has a comparative advantage over other regions because of its large landholdings, subsidized irrigation, and access to immigrant-hired farm labor. Its agricultural exports depend to a large extent on the opportunity cost of such labor, while rising incomes in Mexico will increase the demand for food and feed grains from the Midwest of the United States as well as the products of Western agriculture.
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Bustamante et al. ’92 “U.S.-Mexico Relations: Labor Market Interdependence;” ed. Jorge A. Bustamante, prof. Sociology @ Notre Dame, Clark Winton Reynolds, Raúl Andrés Hinojosa Ojeda; 1992; Stanford Univ. Press http://books.google.com/books?id=QcSrAAAAIAAJ RMJ
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Changes in wages of immigrant workers in the United States affect the sector within Mexico rising incomes in Mexico will increase the demand for food and feed grains from the Midwest as well as the products of Western agriculture.
|
Plan affects the Mexican economy
| 648 | 32 | 230 | 105 | 5 | 39 | 0.047619 | 0.371429 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,050 |
There is a belief, as popular as it is erroneous, that the Mexican economy, expressed in terms of poverty and unemployment, singlehandedly determines the exodus of migratory workers into the United States. Various independent researchers have demonstrated that undocumented migrants do not come from the poorest regions nor from the poorest sectors of Mexico and that the majority of them have jobs in Mexico before they cross the U.S. border on their way to the United States. Both countries explain the migratory labor phenomenon in terms of differences in salary: the greater the wage difference, the greater the incentive to look for work in the United States
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Bustamante et al. ’92 “U.S.-Mexico Relations: Labor Market Interdependence;” ed. Jorge A. Bustamante, prof. Sociology @ Notre Dame, Clark Winton Reynolds, Raúl Andrés Hinojosa Ojeda; 1992; Stanford Univ. Press http://books.google.com/books?id=QcSrAAAAIAAJ RMJ
|
There is a belief, as popular as it is erroneous, that the Mexican economy determines the exodus of migratory workers into the United States. Various independent researchers have demonstrated that undocumented migrants do not come from the poorest regions nor from the poorest sectors and that the majority have jobs in Mexico
|
Mexican economy doesn’t determine migration rates
| 663 | 49 | 326 | 107 | 6 | 52 | 0.056075 | 0.485981 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,051 |
...gone through an intense monetarization that has led to the destruction or undercutting of craft manufactures. The peasantry requires currency, and to obtain it, it must sell its labor; thus producing more for the market and less for consumption. Mexico’s current economic crisis has exacerbated the crisis of rural Mexico since the early 1980s. Unemployment and a falling standard of living are now generalized among the working population. The concept of norteñizacíon fits within the analysis of social reproduction that seeks to identify the strategies by which popular sectors seek not only to survive, but to gain higher levels of wellbeing. The sectors achieve these goals by advantageously exploiting their domestic resources and by inserting these resources into local, regional, and international markets. Norteñización, which presupposes various degrees of involvement in international migration, lends itself to a comparative analysis. From a national point of view, western Mexico is the region with the highest level of norteñización. In part this is true because the labor-recruiting efforts of U.S. railroad companies at the beginning of this century were directed primarily at this region. This helps to explain why California, apart from the large communities of migrants from the states of Jalisco, Michoacán, and Guanajuato, there are no important concentrations of migrants from states such as Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Veracruz, or Chiapas. There are also differing degrees of migratory activity within western Mexico. For example, communities with similar socioeconomic profiles within traditional sending areas such as the Zamora Bajio or Los Altos de Jalisco display very different migratory flows. This fact shows the need to pay attention to the particular regional and local histories of migration. The sociological and anthropological literature offers several works about communities that are markedly experiencing processes which parallel those underway in Chavinda such as (1) a growing number of families whose well-being depends on work in the “north,” (2) dynamic growth or stagnation in the local economy provoked by migrant remittances (the direction of the economic trend depends on the regional context), (3) predominance of international over internal migration, (4) social and cultural adaptations to make migration possible, (5) the transformation over time from a temporary and seasonal migration pattern to...
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Bustamante et al. ’92 “U.S.-Mexico Relations: Labor Market Interdependence;” ed. Jorge A. Bustamante, prof. Sociology @ Notre Dame, Clark Winton Reynolds, Raúl Andrés Hinojosa Ojeda; 1992; Stanford Univ. Press http://books.google.com/books?id=QcSrAAAAIAAJ RMJ – note – from Google books so parts of paragraphs are cut off by pages not shown in the preview – this card is entirety of p. 317
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peasantry must sell its labor thus producing less for consumption exacerbated the crisis of rural Mexico Unemployment and a falling standard of living are now generalized among the working population literature offers several works about communities growing number of families whose well-being depends on work in the “north stagnation in the local economy provoked by migrant remittances social and cultural adaptations to make migration possible
|
Immigration stagnates rural economies
| 2,448 | 37 | 446 | 362 | 4 | 65 | 0.01105 | 0.179558 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,052 |
A greater volume of emigration to the United States from our research communities and similar labor-exporting communities of west-central Mex- ico probably occurred in 1988 than in any previous year.'3 A large part of the 1988 migration surge-which included many first-timers, women, and children-consisted of persons taking advantage of the IRCA-mandated legalization options, especially the SAW program. In the commnunities that we have studied, 39 percent of all household heads and 41 percent of residents who had migrated to the United States since 1982 acknowledged having relatives who had gone to the United States principally to legalize their status under one of the IRCA amnesty programs. Now that the application period for the SAW program has closed, many prospective migrants to the United States-as well as undocumented migrants already working there who did not qualify or apply for the earlier IRCA amnesty programs-are awaiting implementation of the Replenishment Ag- ricultural Workers (RAW) program authorized by the 1986 immigration law. Under the RAW program, at least 50,000 short-term migrant farmworkers, to be chosen by lottery among the applicants, may be authorized to work in the United States for the four fiscal years from October 1989 through September 1993, if the federal government determines that a shortfall in agricultural labor exists.'4 The legalization programs created by IRCA seem to have propelled into the migratory stream substantial numbers of Mexicans who had not previ- ously sought work in the United States. Many of these first-timers probably would have migrated anyway, as undocumented entrants, without the in- ducement of an opportunity to arreglar papeles (obtain legal entry papers). For others, however, this inducement was both a necessary and sufficient motive for migration.
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Cornelius ’89 Wayne A. Cornelius, distinguished + emeritus prof. Pol Sci + Mexican Relations @ UC San Diego; “Impacts of the 1986 US Immigration Law on Emigration from Rural Mexican Sending Communities;” 1989; Population and Development Review, Vol. 15, No. 4; http://www.jstor.org/stable/1972595 JSTOR RMJ
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large part of the migration surge-which included many first-timers, women, and children-consisted of persons taking advantage legalization options The legalization programs created by IRCA seem to have propelled into the migratory stream substantial numbers of Mexicans who had not previ- ously sought work in the United States this inducement was both a necessary and sufficient motive for migration.
|
Immigration policies like the aff uniquely increase migration from rural Mexican communities
| 1,835 | 92 | 401 | 278 | 12 | 58 | 0.043165 | 0.208633 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,053 |
Advocates and critics of IRCA alike have postulated a variety of contradictory effects that the law would supposedly have on the economies of migrant families and their home communities. Some feared that employer sanctions would dry up remittance income, causing serious hardship in areas that had become heavily dependent on this income source. Others anticipated that legalization would boost the income-earning potential of the "amnestied" workers and thus their contributions to household and community econo- mies. But for the majority of families in the Mexican communities we have studied, IRCA per se has had no dramatic impact on their economic con- ditions. The aggregate flow of cash remittances from US-based workers to these communities appears to have been reduced somewhat by IRCA's legalization programs, at least in 1987 and 1988. Our interviewees noted that amnesty applicants spent more time in the United States than usual and sent less money home to their relatives during the application period. This is not surprising, since the costs incurred in applying for legalization reduced migrants' income. Thirty percent of the household heads interviewed reported receiving less money from relatives in the United States in the post-IRCA period (i.e., since January 1987); only 12 percent reported an increase in remittances. But the majority of households (57 percent) had experienced no change in the level of remittance income since the enactment of IRCA.22 To the extent that legalization reduces shuttle migration and encourages permanent settlement in the United States, however, it is likely to have a negative impact on remittance flows in the longer term. The direct, short-term economic benefits of legalization under IRCA seem to have been overestimated. The median hourly wage received by post- 1982 migrants from our research communities whose last trip to the United States had been made in the pre-IRCA period was US$5.50; among those whose most recent migration occurred during 1987-89, the median hourly wage received was $6.00. Some migrants interviewed in the summer of 1988 and early 1989 complained to us that wages in agricultural areas of California with heavy concentrations of Mexican workers were being depressed by the arrival of large numbers of SAW permit-holders.23 Studies of labor-intensive, non- agricultural industries in California conducted by the Center for U.S.-Mex- ican Studies in 1983-84 and 1987-88 revealed considerable rigidity in wage scales for production workers. However, wages in these sectors of the Cal- ifornia economy were being held down mainly by general competitive pres- sures, the weakness of unions, and other factors essentially unrelated to the size of the immigrant labor supply.24 Most employers in these industries have not considered raising wages in order to attract workers in the post-IRCA period; nor have they found it necessary to do so. Among household heads in the communities we have studied in Mex- ico, only 15 percent could cite any specific economic benefit to their family resulting from IRCA's legalization programs. Most of those who felt they had benefited mentioned having more stable work in the United States, or not having to pay a coyote to guide illegal entries. Clearly, legal access to the US labor market has not translated automatically into increased income for the majority of "amnestied" workers and their families. In our research communities, most confirmed nortenos25 try to maintain a house in their hometowns that can be occupied during family vacations, and sometimes by a spouse or older relative who prefers to remain at home. House construction and improvement remain the most common forms of capital investment in the sending communities by persons who migrate to the United States. There is no evidence that IRCA has changed the way in which earnings accumulated in the United States are used. As legalization continues to promote permanent settlement on the US side of the border, however, more of the houses built or expanded with dollars earned in the United States are destined for use not as primary residences but as vacation homes.
|
Cornelius ’89 Wayne A. Cornelius, distinguished + emeritus prof. Pol Sci + Mexican Relations @ UC San Diego; “Impacts of the 1986 US Immigration Law on Emigration from Rural Mexican Sending Communities;” 1989; Population and Development Review, Vol. 15, No. 4; http://www.jstor.org/stable/1972595 JSTOR RMJ
|
Some feared that employer sanctions would dry up remittance income, causing serious hardship in areas that had become heavily dependent on this income source for the majority of families in the Mexican communities we have studied The aggregate flow of cash remittances from US-based workers to these communities appears to have been reduced somewhat by legalization programs, spent more time in the United States than usual and sent less money home not surprising, since the costs reduced migrants' income likely to have a negative impact on remittance flows in the longer term economic benefits seem to have been overestimated Most of those who felt they had benefited mentioned having more stable work legal access to the US labor market has not translated automatically into increased income for the majority of workers and their families.
|
Legal immigration policies reduce remittances and hurt Mexican local economies
| 4,161 | 78 | 842 | 653 | 10 | 134 | 0.015314 | 0.205207 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,054 |
International migration may reshape rural economies in myriad ways, particularly in an imperfect-markets setting. Our goal in this paper has been to explore the potential influences, both direct and indirect, that Mexico-to-US migration may have on rural incomes and their determinants, using data from the 2003 Mexico National Rural Household Survey. Our findings indicate that rural households’ access to US migrant labour markets significantly increased incomes as well as the productivity of land in rural Mexico. The land productivity effect increases with time since the ‘migration treatment,’ up to a point. Households’ migration status in 2001 has little effect on land productivity in 2002. However, land productivity in 2002 is significantly higher for households that had migrants in 2000, and higher still for those with migrants in 1995. A number of studies have posited that migrants alleviate liquidity and/or risk constraints on household investments in production activities. The findings reported here suggest that it takes several years for these positive effects of migration to play out. Studies that consider only the short-run effects of migration, therefore, are likely to provide a biased and misleading picture of how migration shapes productivity and incomes. The findings also suggest that migration competes primarily with local wage work, altering the composition of rural incomes away from local wages and in favor of migrant remittances, and that the income effects of migration depend critically on 82 J. E. Taylor & A. Lopez-Feldmanother household assets, particularly landholdings. In households without migrants in the United States, the returns to land are lower, and the head’s education plays a more important role in income generation, primarily via off-farm activities. After controlling for observable factors, we find that non-migrant households are systematically different from migrant households in terms of their generation of income in Mexico. This mirrors findings reported by Taylor (1987) on the selectivity of individuals into Mexico-to-US migration. There is evidence of positive sample selectivity bias for non-migration but not for the migration-treatment group. If migrant households were suddenly deprived of migration, their expected (non-migration) incomes would be lower than those of otherwise similar households that do not participate in migration. The analysis of migration impacts is complex and challenging, particularly when one uses cross-sectional data, and further econometric investigation is warranted. A high priority for future research is to seek out possible instruments to control for the non-randomness of the process that allocates households across migration regimes, as well as to identify specific ways by which migration influences productivity in rural households over time.
|
Taylor and Feldman ’10 J. Edward Taylor and Alejandro Lopez Feldman, profs Rural Ag @ UC Davis; “Does Migration Make Rural Households More Productive? Evidence from Mexico;” Mexico Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 46, No. 1, 68–90, January 2010; EBSCO RMJ
|
Our findings indicate that rural households’ access to US migrant labour markets significantly increased incomes as well as the productivity of land in rural Mexico. The land productivity effect increases with time migrants alleviate liquidity and/or risk constraints on household investments in production activities non-migrant households are systematically different from migrant households in terms of income
|
Migration significantly increases rural income – studies
| 2,841 | 56 | 408 | 418 | 7 | 56 | 0.016746 | 0.133971 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,055 |
Biomass is the most abundant and versatile form of renewable energy in the world. The bioenergy production from crop residues is compatible with both food and energy production. Currently, several technologies are available for transforming crop residues into utilizable energy such as direct combustion and fermentation. Mexico is the third largest country in LAC in terms of the cropland area and would become a central focus of attention for the production of biofuels. In this paper we examined the type, location and quantities of various crop residues in Mexico to evaluate their potential for conversion into bioenergy through combustion and fermentation. It was estimated that 75.73 million tons of dry matter was generated from 20 crops in Mexico. From this biomass, 60.13 million tons corresponds to primary crop residues mainly from corn straw, sorghum straw, tops/leaves of sugarcane and wheat straw. The generation of secondary crop residues accounted for 15.60 million tons to which sugarcane bagasse, corncobs, maguey bagasse and coffee pulp were the main contributors. The distribution of this biomass showed that several Mexican municipalities had very high by-product potentials where each municipality could have an installed capacity of 78 MW (via direct combustion) or 0.3 million m3 of bioethanol per year (via anaerobic fermentation). The identification of these municipalities where the biomass potential is high is important since it constitutes the first step towards evaluating the current biomass availability and accurately estimating the bioenergy production capacity from crop residues.
|
Vazquez et al 10(Idania Valdez-Vazquez, Researcher at the Lab of Enrivronmental Biotechnology and Biofuels and at the Department of Marine Biotechnology in Baja, Jorge Acevo-Benitez-see Vazquez, Cuitlahuac Hemandez-Santiago, Researcher at the Universidad del Mar, 9/4/10, “Distribution and potential of bioenergy resources from agricultural activities in Mexico,”http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032110000961)
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Biomass is the most abundant and versatile form of renewable energy in the world. several technologies are available for transforming crop residues into utilizable energy such as direct combustion and fermentation. Mexico is the third largest country in LAC in terms of the cropland area and would become a central focus of attention for the production of biofuels. It was estimated that 75.73 million tons of dry matter was generated from 20 crops in Mexico The generation of secondary crop residues accounted for 15.60 million tons The distribution of this biomass showed that several Mexican municipalities had very high by-product potentials where each municipality could have an installed capacity of 78 MW or 0.3 million m3 of bioethanol per year the biomass potential is high is important since it constitutes the first step towards evaluating the current biomass availability and accurately estimating the bioenergy production capacity from crop residues.
|
Agriculture is key to biofuels-Mexican biofuels heavily dependent on crop creation
| 1,617 | 82 | 963 | 241 | 11 | 149 | 0.045643 | 0.618257 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,056 |
The promotion of biofuels in conjunction with the agricultural sector in Mexico can help enhance income opportunities and improve access to energy services. Mexico’s policies supporting sustainable development open significant business and job opportunities for biofuels and bioenergy. In particular, residue streams from agriculture can enhance value chains of agricultural products. This could considerably help rural areas improve economic diversification while supporting a national transition to a low-carbon economy.¶ The use of residual by-products of agriculture to produce biofuels can add value to the lifecycles of agricultural goods whilst addressing energy needs in rural areas. The large availability of agricultural residues in Mexico improves prospects for the production of biofuels using low-cost, non-edible feedstocks. Other co-benefits can also be tapped, such as employment creation, income generation and alternative energy solutions, while safeguarding food security in Mexico. Potentials are estimated for the production of bioelectricity, biogas and second-generation liquid biofuels using residue streams from the industrial processing of 13 agricultural products in Mexico (corn, sugarcane, beans, wheat, rice, sorghum, coffee, egg, milk, beef, pork, poultry and fish). The use of harvest residues as a feedstock was not considered due to their role in protecting soils against erosion and their use as a natural fertilizer.¶ Energy potentials considering residues from the 13 selected products only show a large under-utilized and untapped potential: bioelectricity could produce 10.5 per cent of the yearly national electricity consumption in Mexico; 2nd generation bioethanol could replace 6.3 per cent of gasoline used (in energy terms); biodiesel produced via biomass-to-liquid technologies could replace 23.2 per cent of diesel demand; and biomethane could meet up to 14 per cent of natural gas demand in the country.¶ By integrating energy and agricultural production, estimates suggest significantly increased income-generation in rural areas. By considering residues from the 13 agricultural products analyzed, the production of bioelectricity, bioethanol and biodiesel could generate between USD 2.2 and 4.1 billion in additional revenue for Mexican agriculture. Biogas potentials could add another USD 234 million to revenue earnings.¶ The production of biofuels from agricultural residues could also provide important net employment opportunities in Mexico, including from the development of bioelectricity (direct and indirect), bioethanol, biodiesel and biogas. These jobs would provide better worker wages and offer higher-skilled employment opportunities than the current average in Mexican agriculture. While the average revenue per job created in the entire Mexican agricultural sector is USD 9.020 per employee, the equivalent in bioenergy has been estimated to average USD 57.400 per employee. Since many of the products analyzed are also cultivated in smallholder systems with low remuneration, income diversification arising from the additional bioenergy revenue streams could help to reduce rural poverty, seasonal fluctuations in agricultural employment and income, and rural emigration.¶ However, before these potentials can be realized, many regulatory and technological hurdles need to be overcome. The legal framework for biofuels in Mexico has advanced since the publication of the National Biofuels Law in 2008. While it has prompted an interest in first-generation biofuel production, little attention has been paid to the use of agricultural residues to produce biofuels or to foster technological options for 2nd generation biofuels. Demand-pull instruments have been based on public procurement mechanisms that focus primarily on first generation anhydrous ethanol, without including provisions to encourage second generation biofuel development and production. The new strategy for anhydrous ethanol blending in the country calls for the company Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) to procure indicative amounts of ethanol to be blended into gasoline starting in 2012. However, there are currently no foreseen minimum purchase requirements on biofuels produced from residues.¶ Moving beyond the current focus on first generation biofuels is very important. In order to tap the wealth of resources existing in agricultural residues, the country may need a comprehensive framework to accelerate technology development and demand for biofuels produced from residues. Since second generation biofuels are not yet produced at commercial scales, the Mexican government has made efforts to support research, as well as development and transfer of technologies in the sector. A number of programs are in place to support rural investments and R&D efforts in biofuels activities, notably in biogas projects from anaerobic digestion. Even as the government has sought to facilitate communication about existing instruments supporting production, storage, transport and retail of biofuels, it remains unclear for producers which programs are best suited to support development of biofuels made from agricultural residues. That, coupled with the lack of foreseeable market opportunities for advanced biofuels in the country, leads to market uncertainty and discourages private investments in research and development.¶ Clear strategies to bring down costs and investment risks, as well as to promote research and deployment of second generation biofuel technologies, both indigenously and in cooperation with other countries, will be critical for the realization of the potential economic gains identified in this Outlook. In addition, international cooperation will be important to meet initial R&D costs, as well as to generate markets of sufficient size to exploit available economies of scale. For that, Mexico can benefit from its ongoing biofuel partnerships in the Mesoamerican region, and from cooperation with countries and regions engaged in advanced biofuels research and deployment, such as the United States, Brazil and the European Union.¶ The institutional dimension also deserves attention. The rural policy approach in Mexico has sought to promote dialogue and cooperation between different government ministries. An inter-ministerial working group composed of Ministries of Energy, Agriculture, Economics, Finance and Environment has been established to define public policies for biofuels. While a similar inter-ministerial structure has been set up to cater for rural policy matters, the role of the energy ministry in the later has been unclear. For the realization of an integrative approach between agriculture and biofuel production from residues, coordinated policies and common funding schemes will be important, especially SAGARPA and the Ministry of Energy (SENER).¶ Mexico’s territorial heterogeneities call for solutions which are flexible enough to accommodate different residue streams and produce different outputs to meet local energy demand, be it for transport, cooking or electrification needs. In addition to the 13 agricultural products analyzed, policies and incentives should thus support production from a wider spectrum of residues, including forestry and municipal waste.¶ If agricultural policy objectives including reform of existing rural investment programs, investment in research and development, expansion of rural infrastructure; diversification of rural incomes, collectivization of atomized smallholders, are met, then a second generation biofuels industry is not only attainable but represents a “low- hanging fruit” that can quickly result in significant development gains.
|
UNCTAD 13(United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 7/9/13, “Mexico’s Agriculture Development: Perspective and Outlook”, 157-159)
|
The promotion of biofuels in conjunction with the agricultural sector in Mexico can help enhance income opportunities and improve access to energy services residue streams from agriculture can enhance value chains of agricultural products. This could considerably help rural areas improve economic diversification while supporting a national transition to a low-carbon economy. residual by-products of agriculture to produce biofuels can add value to the lifecycles of agricultural goods The large availability of agricultural residues in Mexico improves prospects for the production of biofuels Other co-benefits can also be tapped employment creation, income generation and alternative energy solutions, while safeguarding food security in Mexico. Energy potentials considering residues show a large under-utilized and untapped potential By integrating energy and agricultural production, estimates suggest significantly increased income-generation in rural areas. By considering residues from the 13 agricultural products analyzed, the production of bioelectricity, bioethanol and biodiesel could generate between USD 2.2 and 4.1 billion in additional revenue for Mexican agriculture The production of biofuels from agricultural residues could also provide important net employment opportunities in Mexico, including from the development of bioelectricity . These jobs would provide better worker wages and offer higher-skilled employment opportunities than the current average in Mexican agriculture. While the average revenue per job created in the entire Mexican agricultural sector is USD 9.020 per employee, the equivalent in bioenergy has been estimated to average USD 57.400 per employee second generation biofuels are not yet produced at commercial scales, the Mexican government has made efforts to support research, as well as development and transfer of technologies in the sector If agricultural policy objectives including reform of existing rural investment programs, investment in research and development, expansion of rural infrastructure; diversification of rural incomes, collectivization of atomized smallholders, are met, then a second generation biofuels industry is not only attainable but represents a “low- hanging fruit” that can quickly result in significant development gains.
|
Ag industry is key to biofuels and economy-development of second generation fuels
| 7,675 | 81 | 2,309 | 1,081 | 12 | 315 | 0.011101 | 0.291397 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,057 |
As long as world oil prices remain high it appears that ethanol, along with other biofuels, are here to stay however the impact that it will have on Latin America is still unknown. The region has the resources and labour force to lead the world in production and trade of this product. However, measures should be taken now so that both developed and developing nations of this hemisphere enjoy the benefits while minimizing the potential negative side effects of increased ethanol production
|
Fernandez 7(Geronimo Gutierrez Fernandez, The Deputy Foreign Minister of Mexico, 6/7, “Mexico-Brazil Relations: Status and Prospects”, http://www.focal.ca/pdf/focalpoint_june2007.pdf)
|
As long as world oil prices remain high it appears that ethanol, along with other biofuels, are here to stay The region has the resources and labour force to lead the world in production and trade of this product. measures should be taken now so that both developed and developing nations of this hemisphere enjoy the benefits while minimizing the potential negative side effects of increased ethanol production
|
Latin America Biofuel production is key-Labour and Resources
| 492 | 60 | 411 | 82 | 8 | 68 | 0.097561 | 0.829268 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,058 |
However, emigration was by no means the only shock to the Mexican economy during the 1990s. Other shocks may have also contributed to changes in regional relative wages. A large literature documents how NAFTA and other aspects of globalization appear to have increased regional wage differentials in Mexico. It is not clear how globalization interacts with emigration. States more exposed to globalization appear to have lower migration rates to the United States, suggesting that emigration and globalization may be complementary mechanisms for integrating Mexico into the North American labor market. Another important shock was the Mexican peso crisis in 1995. This may have hurt high-migration states more than low-migration states (as high-migration states have larger industrial bases and smaller tourist industries), suggesting my estimates may understate the true effect of emigration on regional wages. Other policy changes, such as the privatization and deregulation of Mexican industry or the reform of Mexico’s land-tenure system, may also have had differential regional impacts. Privatization and deregulation appeared to lower union wage premiums in these sectors (Fairris 2003). Since more heavily unionized industries are concentrated in Mexico’s north and center and relatively absent in Mexico’s south (Chiquiar 2003), we might expect a loss in union power to lower relative wages in Mexico’s highmigration states, in which case my results would tend to understate the true effect of emigration. The reform of Mexico’s land tenure system allowed the sale of agricultural land that had previously been held in cooperative ownership. We might expect this change to have raised relative incomes in southern Mexico, which specializes in agriculture. Because low-migration states are concentrated in southern Mexico, this is another reason my results may tend to understate the true effect of emigration.
|
Hanson ’07 Gordon H. Hanson, prof. Econ @ UC San Diego; “Emigration, Labor Supply, and Earnings in Mexico;” May 2007; National Bureau of Economic Research, Mexican Immigration to the United States, ed. George J. Borjas http://www.nber.org/chapters/c0097.pdf RMJ
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Other shocks contributed to changes in regional relative wages NAFTA and other aspects of globalization increased regional wage differentials in Mexico Another important shock was the Mexican peso crisis in 1995 Other policy changes, such as the privatization and deregulation of Mexican industry or the reform of Mexico’s land-tenure system, may also have had differential regional impacts. Privatization and deregulation appeared to lower union wage premiums in these sectors reform of Mexico’s land tenure system allowed the sale of agricultural land that had previously been held in cooperative ownership
|
Their ev is flawed – the growth is due to NAFTA and deregulation not emigration
| 1,912 | 79 | 606 | 285 | 15 | 89 | 0.052632 | 0.312281 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,059 |
¶ ¶ Thanks to a spike in the agriculture industry, the economy in Mexico grew by close to 4 percent for the second consecutive year.¶ According to Mexico's national statistics institute, the country's economy grew by 3.9 percent in 2012.¶ While the findings were in line with government projections made last year, the data shows growth in the country is holding steady as 2011 registered similar numbers.¶ Mexico’s economic performance is closely linked to the U.S., where it sends almost 80 percent of its exports.¶ To put the value of Mexico’s trade relations into context, the country’s exports and imports account for 60 percent of its GDP.¶ The institute said the reason for the consistent growth was the country’s volatile agricultural production, which increased by 7.2 percent in the last quarter of the year.¶ Thanks to higher production of products such as beans, corn, wheat and sugarcane, a strong domestic demand was able to offset the weaker demand for exports from Latin America's second-largest economy.
|
Fox News 13(2/18/13 “Mexico’s Economic Growth Holds Steady for Second Consecutive Year”, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/money/2013/02/18/mexicos-economic-growth-holds-steady-for-second-consecutive-year/#ixzz2YZneXq2K)
|
Thanks to a spike in the agriculture industry, the economy in Mexico grew by close to 4 percent for the second consecutive year.¶ The institute said the reason for the consistent growth was the country’s volatile agricultural production, which increased by 7.2 percent in the last quarter of the year.¶ Thanks to higher production of products such as beans, corn, wheat and sugarcane, a strong domestic demand was able to offset the weaker demand for exports from Latin America's second-largest economy.
|
Ag Key to Sustainable economic growth
| 1,020 | 37 | 503 | 165 | 6 | 81 | 0.036364 | 0.490909 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,060 |
Amid a growing national debate over how to deal with illegal aliens, one expert suggested Monday that the way to solve the immigration problem in the United States is to boost the Mexican economy. "If you solve the Mexico problem, the rest becomes much easier to deal with. That is the heart of the problem," said Doug Massey, co-director of the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton University. Massey was joined at a Capitol Hill press conference by Jeffrey Passel, a demographer with the Pew Hispanic Center. According to Passel, the number of illegal immigrants has been steadily increasing over the past 20 years and is probably now approaching 12 million. About 56 percent of them are from Mexico, he said. As many as 85 percent of Mexicans who enter the United States each year do so illegally. "There is a very strong relationship between availability of jobs in the U.S. and the flow of illegal immigration," said Passel, adding that undocumented aliens comprise five percent of the workforce in the U.S. Massey said the goal of undocumented Mexicans in the U.S. is not to live in the country permanently but "to use the U.S. labor market as an instrument to raise money to solve an economic problem at home." "We've tried this experiment over the last 20 years of trying to integrate the North American economy without including labor, and it has backfired," he argued. "It has resulted in a record number of illegal people working in the United States." Massey said the policy was one of "contradiction." "It's not because there was an increase in the inflow. It's because there is a decrease in the outflow," he said. "The decrease in the outflow is due to our own border policies." Massey advocated "amnesty" for those who entered the United States as minors and a path for earned legal immigration status for other illegal immigrants in the U.S. To disincentivize Mexicans from crossing the border illegally, Massey said, the U.S. should help their home country to raise its economic outlook.
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Bansal 07 (Monisha Bansal, Staff Writer, citing Doug Massey, co-director of the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton University 1/20/07, “Helping Mexican Economy Key to Ending Illegal Immigration, Says Expert.” http://www.religiontoday.com/1466713/)
|
one expert suggested Monday that the way to solve the immigration problem in the United States is to boost the Mexican economy. If you solve the Mexico problem, the rest becomes much easier to deal with. That is the heart of the problem said Doug Massey, co-director of the Mexican Migration Project at Princeton University. the number of illegal immigrants has been steadily increasing over the past 20 years and is probably now approaching 12 million. About 56 percent of them are from Mexico As many as 85 percent of Mexicans who enter the United States each year do so illegally. There is a very strong relationship between availability of jobs in the U.S. and the flow of illegal immigration Massey said the goal of undocumented Mexicans in the U.S. is not to live in the country permanently but "to use the U.S. labor market as an instrument to raise money to solve an economic problem at home." We've tried this experiment over the last 20 years of trying to integrate the North American economy without including labor, and it has backfired It has resulted in a record number of illegal people working in the United States." It's not because there was an increase in the inflow. It's because there is a decrease in the outflow The decrease in the outflow is due to our own border policies." To disincentivize Mexicans from crossing the border illegally the U.S. should help their home country to raise its economic outlook.
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Mexican economy is key to stop illegal immigration
| 2,008 | 50 | 1,432 | 340 | 8 | 248 | 0.023529 | 0.729412 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,061 |
Even though Mexico is a net crude oil–exporting country19, second-generation biofuels production could help reduce expenditure for derivates imports. Mexico needs to import roughly 40% of its gasoline because of the lack of refinery capacity and thus spent some USD 22 billion for importing oil derivates and natural gas in 2008 (PEMEX, 2009). With roughly USD 6 billion in 2007, Mexico spent a considerable amount on supporting agricultural activities compared with other developing and emerging countries, such as USD 24 billion in the US and USD 134 billion in the EU (OECD, 2008f). Thus, adding value to agricultural by-products and residues through second-generation biofuels production could help reduce the necessity to support sugar cane growers and forestry communities in general. Currently there are special payments for jatropha plantations (USD 500/ha/yr) but the overall impact of specific biofuel-related subsidies on the national budget is quite limited (Rembio, 2009).¶ The potential for additional job creation through second-generation biofuels production in Mexico is high, at least at the agricultural or forestry level; for example, 0.005-0.3 person days/t could be realised in forestry for logging, crosscutting and piling (Rembio, 2009). The diversification of income through selling forestry by-products or residues would be especially beneficial for the 12 million people that live in or adjacent to forests in Mexico, since they are generally considered the poorest segment of the rural population (ITTO, 2005). The added value to forestry products could also reduce the high deforestation rate in Mexico, since deforestation often results from the absence of economic alternatives (Ibarra, 2007). Since sugar cane and maize are also cultivated in smallholder systems with low remuneration (158000 cane growers with an average of 4ha), income diversification could help to reduce rural poverty in general and thus migration to cities from these less developed rural areas (Rembio, 2009; PNUD, 2007).
|
Eisentraut 10(Anselm Eisentraut, Bioenergy Analyst at the International Energy Agency, 2/10, “Sustainable Production of Second-Generation Biofuels”, http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/second_generation_biofuels.pdf)
|
second-generation biofuels production could help reduce expenditure for derivates import . Mexico needs to import roughly 40% of its gasoline because of the lack of refinery capacity and thus spent some USD 22 billion for importing oil derivates and natural gas in 2008 adding value to agricultural by-products and residues through second-generation biofuels production could help reduce the necessity to support sugar cane growers and forestry communities in general potential for additional job creation through second-generation biofuels production in Mexico is high The added value to forestry products could also reduce the high deforestation rate in Mexico, since deforestation often results from the absence of economic alternatives
|
Biofuels key to economy and deforestation-Job Production and Resources
| 2,026 | 70 | 739 | 302 | 9 | 107 | 0.029801 | 0.354305 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,062 |
In the Salinas Valley town of Gonzales, Frank Maconachy with the company Ramsay Highlander may have an answer for farmers worried about big labor shortages. "The labor resource is dwindling, so we needed to develop a machine that could mechanically cut ... efficiently, effectively, safely and get the crop to market competitively," he says. That machine is an automatic spinach harvester. His company custom builds them to suit individual farmers' needs — different blades and equipment to pick celery, for example. But the main point is it reduces the need for workers. "One operator can now harvest 12- to 15,000 pounds of spinach or baby leaf in an hour, where typically a crew of 30 people would be on their hands and knees cutting this with knives and would do half of that volume at best," Maconachy says. But efficiency comes with a price: $250,000 for one of these machines. Sammy Duda isn't quite ready to make that kind of investment. Machines can't do everything, he says. "It's very difficult to duplicate the eyes and the feel of a worker when it comes to maturity and quality of the crop." Even as he focuses on the current immigration bill and whether it will help him get enough workers to get through these next few years, he knows his business is going to have to change. Technology once radically changed this valley when refrigeration allowed iceberg lettuce to be shipped all over the country. "This particular valley was founded on innovation," he says. "There's a lot of bright people that have their radar going, and so as labor issues change, we adapt or we die."
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Siegler 4/30 [Kirk Siegler; April 30, 2013; Why An Immigration Deal Won't Solve The Farmworker Shortage; Siegler is a correspondent for NPR specializing in immigration policy http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2013/04/30/180053057/why-an-immigration-deal-wont-solve-the-farmworker-shortage]
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Maconachy with the company Ramsay Highlander may have an answer for farmers worried about big labor shortages The labor resource is dwindling, so we needed to develop a machine that could mechanically cut ... efficiently, effectively, safely and get the crop to market competitively That machine is an automatic spinach harvester the main point is it reduces the need for workers. One operator can now harvest 12- to 15,000 pounds of spinach or baby leaf in an hour, where typically a crew of 30 people would be on their hands and knees cutting this with knives and would do half of that volume at best Even as he focuses on the current immigration bill and whether it will help him get enough workers to get through these next few years, he knows his business is going to have to change. Technology once radically changed this valley This particular valley was founded on innovation," he says. "There's a lot of bright people that have their radar going, and so as labor issues change, we adapt or we die."
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The United States Federal Government should invest in farm mechanization technology.
| 1,591 | 84 | 1,009 | 274 | 11 | 177 | 0.040146 | 0.645985 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,063 |
Farm mechanization: One of the reasons for success of expansion of area under chickpea in Andhra Pradesh is the increased mechanization of farm operations. Farm mechanization can further be enhanced by developing varieties suitable for harvesting by combine harvesters. Hence, farm mechanization in peak season activities such as harvesting and threshing needs to be encouraged
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Reddy et. Al 13 (Amarender Reddy A, Special Project Scientist, RP–MIP, ICRISAT, Patancheru Andhra Pradesh, India; MCS Bantilan, Research Program Director, Markets, Institutions and Policies, ICRISAT, Patancheru Andhra Pradesh, India; Geetha Mohan, Project Research, The University of Tokyo. May 2013 Pulses Production Scenario: Policy and Technological Options http://oar.icrisat.org/6812/1/26_Policy_BriefIndia%20_2013.pdf)
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One of the reasons for success of expansion of area under chickpea in Andhra Pradesh is the increased mechanization of farm operations Farm mechanization can further be enhanced by developing varieties suitable for harvesting by combine harvesters. Hence, farm mechanization in peak season activities such as harvesting and threshing needs to be encouraged
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Farm mechanization mazimizes efficiency during peak season solves the aff
| 377 | 73 | 356 | 55 | 10 | 53 | 0.181818 | 0.963636 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,064 |
There remain several opportunities for the development of farm mechanization in U.S. agriculture, particularly for fruits and vegetables. Not only does mechanization increase labor productivity, but it also stabilizes labor requirements, particularly in the production of seasonal crops. While low-income countries employ inexpensive labor, and other developed countries invent new machinery, U.S. fruit and vegetable production remains dependent largely on low-wage foreign labor. Establishing the competitiveness of American agriculture on the basis of foreign labor is a questionable policy approach. For instance, the labor cost of citrus production in Brazil is much lower than in Florida. It is estimated that during the 2000-2001 harvesting season, the costs for picking and loading of fruit into trailers ready for transport were $1.60 and $0.38 per box in Florida and Saõ Paulo, respectively (Muraro et al. 2003). The estimated labor cost saved by the continuous canopy shake and catch harvester being tested by some harvesting companies is $0.56 per box (Roka September 2001a). The question implicitly being considered in the Florida citrus industry is whether it should adopt mechanical citrus harvesting, which is potentially less expensive and more productive than hand harvesting, in an effort to compete with Brazilian producers, or it should continue to depend on hand harvesting with a high presence of immigrant workers. Some analysts (Sarig et al. 2000) argue that mechanization will help the U.S. remain competitive in the world market. An example cited is Australia which has become the most mechanized in wine grape harvesting, while U.S. wine grape production relies on low-wage workers, and is still not the lowest cost wine producer (Sternberg et al. 1999). Another illustration is Holland, using mechanical technologies, which successfully exports cut flowers and green house tomatoes to North America (Mines 1999).
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Napasintuwong 04 (IMMIGRANT WORKERS AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE: AN INDUCED INNOVATION PERSPECTIVE ON FLORIDA AND U.S. AGRICULTURE By ORACHOS NAPASINTUWONG 2004 http://etd.fcla.edu/UF/UFE0004414/napasintuwong_o.pdf)
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There remain several opportunities for the development of farm mechanization in U.S. agriculture, particularly for fruits and vegetables. Not only does mechanization increase labor productivity, but it also stabilizes labor requirements, particularly in the production of seasonal crops. Establishing the competitiveness of American agriculture on the basis of foreign labor is a questionable policy approach The estimated labor cost saved by the continuous canopy shake and catch harvester being tested by some harvesting companies is $0.56 per box (Roka September 2001a). The question implicitly being considered in the Florida citrus industry is whether it should adopt mechanical citrus harvesting, which is potentially less expensive and more productive than hand harvesting, in an effort to compete with Brazilian producers, or it should continue to depend on hand harvesting with a high presence of immigrant workers
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Mechanization solves labor productivity and labor stability
| 1,941 | 59 | 923 | 290 | 7 | 134 | 0.024138 | 0.462069 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,065 |
In a competitive world market, low-wage labor may not be a competitive advantage of U.S. agricultural production. While several developed countries utilize advanced technology (e.g., Australian wine grape harvesting), the U.S. continues to rely heavily on low-wage foreign workers. With relatively abundant land in the U.S, the development of farm mechanization can increase production by increasing labor productivity. However, due to readily available unauthorized farm labor, it is often argued that labor-saving technology has not been developed or adopted (Krikorian 2001). With readily available low-wage immigrant workers in U.S. agriculture, the incentive for producers to adopt new labor-saving technology is reduced. Although some farmers are concerned that a reduction of the supply of foreign workers will result in a shortage of farm workers, the success of the mechanized tomato harvester after the end of the Bracero program provides a counter-example to this concern. After September 11, 2001, there was a great uncertainty on foreign labor supply as the country became more aware of immigrants’ roles in the U.S. economy and security. A reduction in financial risk associated with labor uncertainty and stabilization in agricultural production are arguments in favor of farm mechanization. In addition, farm mechanization may also decrease government welfare expenditures on education and health care of foreign workers, and can conceivably strengthen national competitiveness in agricultural production.
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Napasintuwong 04 (IMMIGRANT WORKERS AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE: AN INDUCED INNOVATION PERSPECTIVE ON FLORIDA AND U.S. AGRICULTURE By ORACHOS NAPASINTUWONG 2004 http://etd.fcla.edu/UF/UFE0004414/napasintuwong_o.pdf)
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In a competitive world market, low-wage labor may not be a competitive advantage of U.S. agricultural production. While several developed countries utilize advanced technology (e.g., Australian wine grape harvesting), the U.S. continues to rely heavily on low-wage foreign workers. due to readily available unauthorized farm labor, it is often argued that labor-saving technology has not been developed or adopted Although some farmers are concerned that a reduction of the supply of foreign workers will result in a shortage of farm workers, the success of the mechanized tomato harvester after the end of the Bracero program provides a counter-example to this concern. A reduction in financial risk associated with labor uncertainty and stabilization in agricultural production are arguments in favor of farm mechanization. In addition, farm mechanization may also decrease government welfare expenditures on education and health care of foreign workers, and can conceivably strengthen national competitiveness in agricultural production.
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Mechanization reduces financial risks-itll be widely adopted
| 1,521 | 60 | 1,040 | 219 | 7 | 149 | 0.031963 | 0.680365 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,066 |
Alex Nowrasteh of the libertarian Cato Institute asked in a recent article “Who Will Pick Our Apples.” The gist of the article was that Americans, according apple producers, won’t pick apples, so therefore we must have a presumably unending flow of foreigners to come here and do the work. Fact Check: The labor shortages may be real, or they may not be. David North, a former assistant Secretary of Labor, cautions that claims of “labor shortages” resulting in “crops rotting in the fields” can’t always be taken at face value. Usually these are claims of growers unverified by outside sources. Sometimes the reality is much more complex. Source: Caution: Watch for Farmers’ Fibs on “Labor Shortages” www.cis.org 1/12 But for the sake of argument, let’s assume that we truly don’t have enough apple pickers. Does this mean that we will never have any alternative to admitting a generally low-paid foreign workforce? Not really. Suppose someone in the 19th century had asked, “Who will pick our cotton, if we don’t have slaves or free workers whose living standards aren’t much better than those of slaves? The answer is that we developed technology to make masses of field workers unnecessary to bring in cotton crops. The question now to ask is: why can’t we develop technology to harvest all or most of our other crops as well? As we progress into the 21st century, it seems strange to tie ourselves to a pre-technological economy of muscle, toil and sweat. The fact of the matter is that apple harvesting technology is rapidly developing. In Washington state, where Nowrasteh cited the labor shortage, The Wenatchee Times reported (12/12/09) that “Apple harvest is moving ever closer to looking like corn, wheat and potatoes with machines starting to play bigger roles.” One problem still to be resolved completely is developing technology that can pick apples, without bruising them, as well as the human hand. But this is now on the horizon. As noted by the Associated Press (9/6/07) “[N]ew pickers rely on advances in computing power and hydraulics that can make robotic limbs and digits operate with near-human sensitivity. Modern imaging technology also enables the machines to recognize and sort fruits of varying qualities.” Said Derek Morikawa, who has worked with the Washington State Apple Commission to develop a fruit picker, “The technology is maturing just at the right time to allow us to do this kind of work economically.” Another economic gain is eliminating the cost to taxpayers of social services provided to foreign workers. A key factor holding back the advance of agricultural mechanization, observes Philip Martin, a professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of California (Davis), is “the ready availability of farm workers” at low wages. Source: www.cis.org, Backgrounder, November 2007. Consequently, slowing the flow of legal and illegal farm workers would assist mechanization. This in the long-run would be in the interest of U.S. farmers who produce apples and other crops. Increasingly, they will have to face competition from foreign producers who have cheap labor at home, or those who are mechanizing themselves. Technological advance has always been the American way. We lose if we stay dependent on a mode of production more appropriate to the 19th century than the 21st.
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AIC 13 (Americans for Immigration Control inc. jan 09 2013 Machines Can Harvest Those Apples http://www.immigrationcontrol.com/?p=749)
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The labor shortages may be real, or they may not be. David North, a former assistant Secretary of Labor, cautions that claims of “labor shortages” resulting in “crops rotting in the fields” can’t always be taken at face value. Usually these are claims of growers unverified by outside sources. Sometimes the reality is much more complex Does this mean that we will never have any alternative to admitting a generally low-paid foreign workforce? Not really. Suppose someone in the 19th century had asked, “Who will pick our cotton, if we don’t have slaves or free workers whose living standards aren’t much better than those of slaves? The answer is that we developed technology to make masses of field workers unnecessary to bring in cotton crops ? As we progress into the 21st century, it seems strange to tie ourselves to a pre-technological economy of muscle, toil and sweat. The fact of the matter is that apple harvesting technology is rapidly developing. “[N]ew pickers rely on advances in computing power and hydraulics that can make robotic limbs and digits operate with near-human sensitivity. Modern imaging technology also enables the machines to recognize and sort fruits of varying qualities.” The technology is maturing just at the right time to allow us to do this kind of work economically.” Another economic gain is eliminating the cost to taxpayers of social services provided to foreign workers This in the long-run would be in the interest of U.S. farmers who produce apples and other crops. Increasingly, they will have to face competition from foreign producers who have cheap labor at home, or those who are mechanizing themselves. Technological advance has always been the American way. We lose if we stay dependent on a mode of production more appropriate to the 19th century than the 21st.
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Mechanization solves already working on apple farms
| 3,338 | 51 | 1,815 | 542 | 7 | 300 | 0.012915 | 0.553506 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,067 |
Farm mechanization: One of the reasons for success of expansion of area under chickpea in Andhra Pradesh is the increased mechanization of farm operations. Farm mechanization can further be enhanced by developing varieties suitable for harvesting by combine harvesters. Hence, farm mechanization in peak season activities such as harvesting and threshing needs to be encouraged.
|
Reddy et. Al 13 (Amarender Reddy A, Special Project Scientist, RP–MIP, ICRISAT, Patancheru Andhra Pradesh, India; MCS Bantilan, Research Program Director, Markets, Institutions and Policies, ICRISAT, Patancheru Andhra Pradesh, India; Geetha Mohan, Project Research, The University of Tokyo. May 2013 Pulses Production Scenario: Policy and Technological Options http://oar.icrisat.org/6812/1/26_Policy_BriefIndia%20_2013.pdf)
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One of the reasons for success of expansion of area under chickpea in Andhra Pradesh is the increased mechanization of farm operations Farm mechanization can further be enhanced by developing varieties suitable for harvesting by combine harvesters. Hence, farm mechanization in peak season activities such as harvesting and threshing needs to be encouraged.
|
Farm mechanization mazimizes efficiency during peak season solves the aff
| 378 | 73 | 357 | 55 | 10 | 53 | 0.181818 | 0.963636 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,068 |
The flu of 1890, 1918–1919 Spanish flu, 1957 Asian flu, 1968 Hong Kong flu, and 1977 Russian flu all led to mass deaths. Pandemics such as these remain major threats to human health that could lead to extremely high death rates. The 1918 pandemic is believed to have killed 50 million people [27]. AIDS (HIV) has killed an estimated 23 million people from 1978 to 2001 [15]. And there have been numerous other incidents of diseases such as cholera, dysentery, influenza, scurvy, smallpox, typhus, and plague that have caused the deaths of many millions throughout history. Clearly, these biological diseases are much greater threats to human survival than other natural or environmental disasters. Because bacterium and viral strains experience antigenic shifts (which are small changes in the virus that happen continually over time, eventually producing new virus strains that might not be recognized by the body’s immune system), another devastating pandemic could appear at any time. It should also be noted that the threat from biological weapons is quite real. In fact, scientists from the former Soviet Union’s bioweapons program claim to have developed an antibiotic-resistant strain of the plague [26].
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Carpenter and Bishop 2009 (P. A., P. C., July 10, Graduate Program in Studies of the Future, School of Human Sciences and Humanities, University of Houston-Clear Lake, Houston, TX, USA, Graduate Program in Futures Studies, College of Technology, University of Houston, Houston, TX, USA. A review of previous mass extinctions and historic catastrophic events, ScienceDirect)
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And there have been numerous other incidents of diseases such as cholera, dysentery, influenza, scurvy, smallpox, typhus, and plague that have caused the deaths of many millions throughout history. Clearly, these biological diseases are much greater threats to human survival than other natural or environmental disasters. Because bacterium and viral strains experience antigenic shifts another devastating pandemic could appear at any time. the threat from biological weapons is quite real scientists from the former Soviet Union’s bioweapons program claim to have developed an antibiotic-resistant strain of the plague
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A bioweapons attack threatens human survival
| 1,211 | 44 | 620 | 191 | 6 | 88 | 0.031414 | 0.460733 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,069 |
There is a strong association between the use of herbicide-tolerant biotech crops and recent improvements in tillage reduction. Four trends support this conclusion: • Weed control is a major consideration when farmers are weighing whether to implement conservation tillage, and several surveys indicate that farmers have more confidence in weed control since the introduction of herbicide-tolerant biotech crops. In some surveys, farmers say herbicide-tolerant crops enabled them to increase the amount of residue they leave on their fields. INTRODUCTION• No-till, the tillage system that most relies on good herbicide performance, has grown more than other reduced tillage systems since 1996, and nearly all the growth has occurred in crops where herbicidetolerance technology is available – soybeans, cotton and canola. (Herbicide-tolerant corn has not been widely adopted due to pending regulatory approval in Europe, nor has no-till corn expanded as rapidly as other crops.) • Farmers who purchase herbicide-tolerant seeds use them disproportionately on their conservation tillage acres. • Farmers who do not purchase herbicide-tolerant seeds are not as likely to participate in conservation tillage. The main reason farmers till their soil is to control weeds, which compete with their crops for space, nutrients and water and can interfere with harvesting equipment. Historically, farmers have plowed under emerged weeds before planting and tilled the soil in preparation for herbicides that prevent additional weeds from emerging. If herbicides failed due to weather conditions, farmers could use additional tillage as a rescue. With herbicide-tolerant crops, farmers allow weeds to emerge with their crops. Then they apply herbicide over the top of their crop, removing the weeds without harming the crop, which has been modified through biotechnology to withstand the herbicide. This improvement in weed control gives increased confidence that weeds can be controlled economically without relying on tillage. It partially explains why no-till farming has been increasing significantly in crops where the technology is available. Many analyses have shown that conservation tillage provides economic benefits by saving time and reducing fuel and equipment costs. Despite these benefits, many farmers were reluctant to commit to a new system in which they saw potential risk of yield reduction due to competition from weeds. The trends since 1996, when herbicidetolerant crops were first introduced, provide a strong indication that improved weed control made possible with the new biotech crops has given growers the confidence to increase their use of conservation tillage, especially no-till. As a significant percentage of agriculture is left untilled, more like the original prairies, the water and soil cycles also will begin to return to a more natural state. Continued adoption of no-till practices will bring additional environmental benefits, which include increasing the amount of topsoil that is saved each year, reducing runoff into streams and further cutting back on fuel use and emissions. Improved weed control available through herbicidetolerant crops will be an important factor in continued adoption of no-till. TILLAGE WAS ONCE NECESSARY Repeated tillage to prepare crop seedbeds and control weeds was an indispensable component of agriculture until the last half of the 20th century. However, excessive tillage causes soil erosion, thus reducing the sustainability of agriculture. For example, 100 years after Iowa was settled, nearly half the original topsoil had eroded.1 Repeated tillage also can reduce soil quality and productivity by destroying soil structure, reducing organic matter content and harming beneficial invertebrates such as earthworms. Sediment eroded from intensively tilled fields fouls aquatic systems, and runoff of water contributes to flooding. Tillage destroys wildlife food sources and reduces surface crop residues that serve as wildlife cover.
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Fawcett and Towry 02 [Researchers for the CTIC (Conservation Technology Information Center), a non-profit organization dedicated to environmentally responsible and economically viable agricultural decision-making, Reviewed by Dave Schertz, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Washington, DC Wayne Reeves, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Soil Dynamics Lab, Auburn, AL Carem Sandretto, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DCJerry Hatfield, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, National Soil Tilth Lab, Ames, IA Terry Riley, Wildlife Management Institute, Washington, DC“Conservation Tillage and Plant Biotechnology: How New Technologies Can Improve the Environment By Reducing the Need to Plow”, pgs. 1-4,http://croplife.intraspin.com/Biotech/papers/35%20Fawcett.pdf\\Clans)
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There is a strong association between biotech and improvements in tillage No-till has grown and technology is available Farmers who do not purchase herbicide-tolerant seeds are not as likely to participate in conservation tillage Historically, farmers have plowe and tilled the soil in preparation for herbicides . If herbicides failed due to weather conditions, farmers could use additional tillage as a rescue. With herbicide-tolerant crops, farmers allow weeds to emerge with their crops improvement in weed control give confidence without relying on tillage tillage provides economic benefits by saving time and reducing fuel and equipment costs significant percentage of agriculture is left untilled Continued adoption of no-till practices will bring additional environmental benefits excessive tillage causes soil erosion, thus reducing the sustainability of agriculture Repeated tillage also can reduce soil quality and productivity by destroying soil structure, harming earthworms Tillage destroys wildlife food sources and reduces surface crop residues that serve as wildlife cover.
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Biotech creates no-till ag- that solves erosion and earthworms
| 4,001 | 62 | 1,091 | 587 | 9 | 154 | 0.015332 | 0.262351 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,070 |
A foundation is "the basis upon which something stands or is supported" (Webster). The basic premises of this discourse on "foundational principles" is that soil is the foundation for all of life, including humanity, that stewardship of soil is the foundation for agricultural sustainability, and that sustainability is the conceptual foundation for wise soil management. All living things require food of one kind or another to keep them alive. Life also requires air and water, but nothing lives from air and water alone. Things that are not directly rooted in the soil -- that live in the sea, on rocks, or on trees, for example -- still require
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Ikerd 99 (John E., Professor Emeritus of Agricultural Economics at University of Missouri “Foundational Principles: Soils. Stewardship, and Sustainability,” Sep 22, 1999 http://www.ssu.missouri.edu/faculty/jikerd/papers/NCSOILS.html]
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soil is the foundation for all of life, including humanity, Things that are not directly rooted in the soil still require
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Soil erosion causes extinction
| 648 | 30 | 121 | 108 | 4 | 21 | 0.037037 | 0.194444 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,071 |
1.3 Biotechnology for pollution …and gives solid sulphur We are so much obsessed with and possessed of industrial growth that our ecosystem has undergone many ramifications and diversions; its pristine glory and vigor, vitality and utility has been completely lost. Therefore, it is the bounding duty of us all to be aware of what is happening around us and how this dither-down can be halted. In the initial stage of industrialization, more importance was attached to stepping-up of production-regardless to the need to install pollution free technologies. While some form of environmental pollution has always existed and will continue to exist, it is only in the last two decades or so that we have found the concern for environmental pollution becoming more and more pervasive. The time clearly is now to have a look at our technological capabilities to protect our environment (Agarwal, 1996). So far we have relied more upon physical and chemical methods of pollution control. Today, biotechnology is being considered as an emerging technology in environmental protection. It involves the use of micro-organisms, the oldest inhabitants of the earth, which are likely to prove as more suitable for pollution control due to their versatility and adaptability to changing environments. The application of biotechnology in the field of air pollution abatement and water pollution abatement shall be discussed here in more details. 1.3.1 Biotechnology for Air Pollution Abatement Sulphur dioxide, Nitrogen oxides, Volatile Organic Compounds and Particulates are the four major components of air pollution and are responsible for environmental hazards. Sulphur dioxide and Nitrogen oxides gases are just two of the four main pollutants known to be important determinants of local air quality. Increase in environmental awareness has resulted in more attention of people to air pollution. People sense pollution by offensive odour just before their receiving the damage. Waste gases with an offensive odour may be generated during the production process or they may generate from open waste water treatment plants and garbage composting plants. Three types of biological waste gas purification systems are in operation. These are: (i) Bioscrubbers, (ii) Biofilters, and (iii) Biotrickling filters. (i) Bioscrubber A typical bioscrubber consists of an absorption column and one or more bioreactor (Figure 1). Biological oxidation tales place in these bioreactors. The reaction tank are aerated and supplied with a nutrient solution. The microbial mass mainly remains in the circulating liquor that passes through the absorption column. Circulation rate is fast and not much of biofilm will develop in the absorption column. The biofilm is removed from time to time.
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Santra 07 [Professor, “New Frontiers of Environmental Biotechnological Application”, Published by ENVIS Centre on Environmental Biotechnology (Supported by Ministry of Environment & Forest, Govt. of India) http://www.envis.kuenvbiotech.org/Biotech-book.pdf]
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We are so much obsessed growth that our ecosystem has undergone ramifications importance was attached to stepping-up of production-regardless to the need to install pollution free technologies The time clearly is now to have a look at our technological capabilities to protect our environment biotechnology is being considered as an emerging technology in environmental protection The application of biotechnology in the field of air pollution abatement Three types of biological waste gas purification systems are in operation Bioscrubbers Biofilters Biotrickling A typical bioscrubber consists of an absorption column and one or more bioreactor
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Biotech solves air pollution
| 2,763 | 28 | 646 | 423 | 4 | 93 | 0.009456 | 0.219858 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,072 |
Bluntly, we foresee these factors - and others { } not covered - converging to a catastrophic collapse of the world economy in about eight years. As the collapse of the Western economies nears, one may expect catastrophic stress on the 160 developing nations as the developed nations are forced to dramatically curtail orders. International Strategic Threat Aspects History bears out that desperate nations take desperate actions. Prior to the final economic collapse, the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and number of their conflicts, to the point where the arsenals of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) now possessed by some 25 nations, are almost certain to be released. As an example, suppose a starving North Korea launches nuclear weapons upon Japan and South Korea, including U.S. forces there, in a spasmodic suicidal response. Or suppose a desperate China - whose long range nuclear missiles can reach the United States - attacks Taiwan. In addition to immediate responses, the mutual treaties involved in such scenarios will quickly draw other nations into the conflict, escalating it significantly. Strategic nuclear studies have shown for decades that, under such extreme stress conditions, once a few nukes are launched, adversaries and potential adversaries are then compelled to launch on perception of preparations by one's adversary. The real legacy of the MAD concept is his side of the MAD coin that is almost never discussed. Without effective defense, the only chance a nation has to survive at all, is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes and try to take out its perceived foes as rapidly and massively as possible. As the studies showed, rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs, with a great percent of the WMD arsenals being unleashed . The resulting great Armageddon will destroy civilization as we know it, and perhaps most of the biosphere, at least for many decades.
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Liutenant Colonel Bearden -2K (Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army, 2000, The Unnecessary Energy Crisis: How We Can Solve It, 2000, http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Big- Medicine/message/642)
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As the collapse of the Western economies nears, one may expect catastrophic stress desperate nations take desperate actions. the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and number of their conflicts, to the point where the arsenals of WMD , are almost certain to be released the only chance a nation has to survive at all, is to launch immediate full-bore pre-emptive strikes rapid escalation to full WMD exchange occurs The resulting great Armageddon will destroy civilization as we know it
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Economic decline cause nuclear war.
| 1,933 | 35 | 504 | 310 | 5 | 82 | 0.016129 | 0.264516 |
Mexico Guest Workers Negative - HSS 2013.html5
|
Hoya-Spartan Scholars
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,073 |
The United States has been a key purchaser of Venezuelan crude in the past. U.S. representatives met with Maduro last weekend, saying there was an opportunity with the former foreign minister to "regularize the relationship." That could kick start diplomatic outreach efforts suspended during the Chavez era. U.S. consumption of Venezuelan crude, however, is in decline. The EIA said that, as of January, the United States imported 871,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude, down more than 17 percent from their December figures. Maduro, meanwhile, may draw on the long-standing relationship with Russian giants, and the Chinese economy. Venezuela already sends 430,000 bpd to China, a substantial increase from a decade ago. Despite a challenge to the polls from rival Henrique Capriles, Maduro may nudge open some of the doors closed by his mentor, Hugo Chavez. The outcome of that effort, however, depends on who's knocking.
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Graeber, 13 --- Senior Analyst at Oilprice.com (4/15/2013, Daniel J., “Maduro May Open Oil Doors, But For Who?” http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/South-America/The-apparent-victory-for-Nicolos-Maduro-in-the-Venezuelan-presidential-election.html)
|
U.S. representatives met with Maduro saying there was an opportunity with the former foreign minister to "regularize the relationship." That could kick start diplomatic outreach efforts suspended during the Chavez era.
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Diplomatic relations could be restarted
| 917 | 39 | 218 | 144 | 5 | 31 | 0.034722 | 0.215278 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,074 |
Meanwhile, one of the tropical forest areas that receives the most attention and comment— Amazonia—may be experiencing a declining deforestation rate. At the end of 2007, the Brazilian government announced that its rate of deforestation had been cut by one-fifth during the previous year (and two-thirds from peak years), marking the third straight year of declining deforestation5 (see Figure 1).
|
Hayward 08 (Steven - senior fellow at the Pacific Research Institute and F.K. Weyerhaeuser Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, “Index of Leading Environmental Indicators 2008” http://liberty.pacificresearch.org/docLib/20080401_08_Enviro_Index.pdf)
|
the Amazonia may be experiencing a declining deforestation rate At the end of 2007, the Brazilian government announced that its rate of deforestation had been cut by one-fifth during the previous year marking the third straight year of declining deforestation
|
1.) Amazon deforestation declining
| 398 | 35 | 259 | 60 | 4 | 40 | 0.066667 | 0.666667 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,075 |
In addition climate change can have a major impact on the Amazon. Current estimates from the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are that at 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit increase in global average temperature, Amazon dieback will occur -- not the entire Amazon but large parts of it. Indeed, the most severe drought in recorded Amazon history occurred in 2005, and was associated with changes in the circulation of the Atlantic that could, in a sense, have been a preview of what climate change could bring. This of course would be a positive feedback releasing yet more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
Amazon dieback is not that far a distant possibility: at current concentrations, we are currently automatically slated for 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit of increase in average global temperature because of the lag time between increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and radiant energy being trapped by them, and most projections bring us close to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030.
|
Lovejoy 08 (Statement of Thomas Lovejoy President, The Heinz Center, before the Committee on House Select Energy Independence and Global Warming, Feb 14, MPACT OF TROPICAL FOREST DESTRUCTION ON THE CLIMATE CQ Congressional Testimony, lexis)
|
climate change can have a major impact on the Amazon Current estimates are that at 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit increase in global average temperature, Amazon dieback will occur large parts of it the most severe drought in recorded Amazon history occurred in 2005, and could have been a preview of what climate change could bring Amazon dieback is not that far a distant possibility projections bring us close to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030
|
2.) Alt Cause - climate change destroying the Amazon - will only get worse in the future
| 989 | 88 | 437 | 158 | 17 | 73 | 0.107595 | 0.462025 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,076 |
With good reason Brazilians are far more concerned about the effects of destruction of the Amazon rain forest than are North Americans, and initiatives to protect the Amazon long have come from the Amazon itself, not from the United States. Forest destruction in the Amazon is no more a consequence of free enterprise or open-market forces than is sugar output in Cuba. Contrary to Morano's facile assumptions, review of actual data on deforestation and the level of development of Amazon populations shows that people in the region typically earn more, live longer and are better educated in the least deforested areas, not on the agricultural frontier where most clearing takes place. Much of the destruction to date was caused by absurdly counterproductive subsidies for cattle ranchers and caused by large landowners' illegal expropriations of public land. Self-serving distortion and gross manipulation of the facts contribute nothing to addressing the real challenge for the Amazon -- and the planet -- to ensure the enduring prosperity of Amazonian peoples based in the ecological integrity of the rain forest. There is a good deal more at issue here than Morano appears to understand.
|
Morano and Schwartzman 00 (Marc and Stephan - anthropologist and senior scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund in DC, Sept 18, “symposium” http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1571/is_35_16/ai_65493891)
|
Forest destruction in the Amazon is no more a consequence of free enterprise or open-market forces than is sugar output in Cuba Much of the destruction to date was caused by absurdly counterproductive subsidies for cattle ranchers and caused by large landowners' illegal expropriations of public land.
|
3.) Amazon destruction not caused by external market forces - Brazilian subsidies have caused most deforestation
| 1,192 | 112 | 301 | 190 | 16 | 47 | 0.084211 | 0.247368 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,077 |
Since errors in national statistics are higher for forests in the dry tropics than Claims that tropical forests are declining cannot be backed up by hard evidence, according to new research from the University of Leeds. This major challenge to conventional thinking is the surprising finding of a study published today in the Proceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences by Dr Alan Grainger, Senior Lecturer in Geography and one of the world's leading experts on tropical deforestation. "Every few years we get a new estimate of the annual rate of tropical deforestation,” said Dr Grainger. “They always seem to show that these marvellous forests have only a short time left. Unfortunately, everybody assumes that deforestation is happening and fails to look at the bigger picture – what is happening to forest area as a whole.” In the first attempt for many years to chart the long-term trend in tropical forest area, he spent more than three years going through all available United Nations data with a fine toothcomb – and found some serious problems. “The errors and inconsistencies I have discovered in the area data raise too many questions to provide convincing support for the accepted picture of tropical forest decline over the last 40 years,” he said. “Scientists all over the world who have used these data to make predictions of species extinctions and the role of forests in global climate change will find it helpful to revisit their findings in the light of my study.” Dr Grainger does not claim that tropical deforestation is not occurring, as there is plenty of local evidence for that. But owing to the lack of frequent scientific monitoring, something for which he has campaigned for 25 years, we cannot use available data to track the long-term global trend in tropical forest area with great accuracy. “The picture is far more complicated than previously thought,” he said. “If there is no long-term net decline it suggests that deforestation is being accompanied by a lot of natural reforestation that we have not spotted.” Dr Grainger first examined data published every 10 years by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) since 1980. These cover all forest in the humid and dry tropics and appear to indicate decline. FAO's Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000, for example, showed that all tropical forest area fell from 1,926 million hectares to 1,799 million hectares between 1990 and 2000. Ten years earlier, however, FAO’s previous report said that tropical forest area fell from 1,910 million ha to 1,756 million ha for the same 90 countries between 1980 and 1990. “Owing to corrections to the earlier study, the 1990s trend was just like a 're-run' of that in the 1980s,” said Dr Grainger. “The errors involved in making estimates for forest area could easily be of the same order as the forest area reported cleared in the previous 10 years. Even if you take enormous care, as FAO does, I argue that large errors are inevitable if you produce global estimates by aggregating national statistics from many countries. This has important implications for the many scientists who rely on FAO data.” for forests in the humid tropics, in places near the Equator such as Amazonia, Borneo and the Congo Basin, he repeated the process just for tropical moist forest, with a different set of data, in the hope it would give a clearer picture. This time he found no evidence for decline since the early 1970s. Indeed, while his own estimate in 1983 of tropical moist forest area in 1980 was 1,081 million hectares, the latest satellite data led to an estimate of 1,181 million hectares for the same 63 countries in 2000. He is cautious about the apparent slight rise. “We would expect to see some increase in estimates as we use more accurate satellite sensors. This is even apparent in FAO’s data. It is sad that only in the last 10 years have we begun to make full use of the satellite technology at our disposal.”
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EurekAlert 08 (Article about Dr Alan Grainger, Senior Lecturer in Geography at the University of Leeds, is an internationally-renowned expert on tropical deforestation, EurekAlert is a service of the University of Leeds, “No convincing evidence for decline in tropical forests” Jan 7th, http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-01/uol-nce010708.php)
|
Claims that tropical forests are declining cannot be backed up by hard evidence, according to new research This is the finding of a study published by Dr Grainger one of the world's leading experts on tropical deforestation. Every few years we get a new estimate of the annual rate of tropical deforestation They always show that these marvellous forests have only a short time left. In going through all available U N data “The errors and inconsistencies raise too many questions to provide convincing support for decline over the last 40 years Scientists who used these data to make predictions of species extinctions and the role of forests in global climate change will find it helpful to revisit their findings If there is no long-term net decline it suggests that deforestation is being accompanied by a lot of natural reforestation that we have not spotted.” in places near the Equator such as Amazonia he found no evidence for decline since the early 1970s
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4.) No risk of imminent collapse - Amazon forests have not been declining in 30 years
| 3,966 | 85 | 964 | 671 | 16 | 163 | 0.023845 | 0.242921 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,078 |
A warmer world could mean the loss of the Amazon rainforest and yet more global warming as levels of carbon dioxide increased in the atmosphere. "This is a simplified picture," Tom Wigley of the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research told the AAAS. "If we warm the world then some climate models suggest that precipitation will decrease in the Amazon basin. That part of the world would get warmer and that would have some pretty dramatic effects on the vegetation in that rainforest area."
|
The Guardian 03 (Feb 17, Tim Radford, “Global warming endangers Amazon” http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2003/feb/17/science.research)
|
A warmer world could mean the loss of the Amazon If we warm the world precipitation will decrease in the Amazon That part of the world would get warmer and have dramatic effects on the vegetation in that area
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Global warming comparatively worse than current deforestation
| 495 | 62 | 208 | 84 | 7 | 39 | 0.083333 | 0.464286 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,079 |
In the past four years Brazil has set aside more than 20 million hectares of the Amazon basin from development. The country now has some 110 million hectares, an area twice the size of France, under some form of protection, giving it the largest protected areas system in the world. This, combined with plunging commodity prices and stricter environmental law enforcement, has helped cause annual deforestation rates to drop by nearly 40 percent since 2004. Further progress is expected next month at climate talks in Nairobi, when the Brazilian government will propose expanded rainforest conservation under a plan that would have industrialized countries meet greenhouse gas emissions targets by compensating tropical countries for forgoing forest clearing and replanting trees in deforested areas. While these are hopeful signs, there is an immense threat looming on the horizon: climate change could well cause most of the Amazon rainforest to disappear by the end of the century. Dr. Philip Fearnside, a Research Professor at the National Institute for Research in the Amazon in Manaus, Brazil and one of the most cited scientists on the subject of climate change, understands the threat well. Having spent more than 30 years in Brazil and now recognized as one of the world's foremost experts on the Amazon rainforest, Fearnside is working to do nothing less than to save this remarkable ecosystem.
|
Butler 06 (Rhett A, Oct 23, “Amazon conservation efforts must come soon to save world's largest rainforest says leading scientist” http://news.mongabay.com/2006/1023-interview_fearnside.html)
|
While these are hopeful signs, there is an immense threat looming on the horizon: climate change could well cause most of the Amazon rainforest to disappear by the end of the century Dr. Fearnside one of the most cited scientists on the subject of climate change, understands the threat well
|
Most of the Amazon will disappear due to global warming by the end of the century
| 1,404 | 81 | 291 | 224 | 16 | 50 | 0.071429 | 0.223214 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,080 |
Most environmental problems are not generated primarily by single large perturbations—the smoking gun scenario. Rather, they are the result of many, often unrelated, insults that combine to cause major changes—the “death from a thousand small wounds” syndrome. Acid precipitation is caused not by the discharges from one power plant but by the discharges from many of them. Extinction is caused not by the alteration of one small tract of land but by the progressive loss of habitat, small piece by small piece. Government agencies that manage public lands often ignore deleterious and additive or multiplicative impacts caused by different kinds of land-use practices, or spill-over effects on adjacent lands. Instead, agencies tend to focus on the potential short-term effects of a new proposal or use of a particular site. Different kinds of disturbances may also combine to yield deleterious effects that are more serious and qualitatively different from the effects caused by any one of them. In the seas, cumulative effects are often the consequence of overfishing combined with pollution, and exacerbated by pathogens that may be more virulent in physiologically weakened hosts.
|
Orians 01 (Gordon H. Orians & Michael E. Soule, Environmental Professors, University of California @ Santa Cruz & University of Washington, 2001, Conservation Biology, eds. Soule & Orians, p. 276)
|
Most environmental problems are not generated primarily by single large perturbations , they are the result of many, often unrelated, insults that combine to cause major changes death from a thousand small wounds . Extinction is caused not by the alteration of one small tract of land but by the progressive loss of habitat, small piece by small piece
|
And, environmental problems are never caused by a single source - addressing only one source won’t solve the problem.
| 1,185 | 117 | 351 | 183 | 19 | 59 | 0.103825 | 0.322404 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,081 |
The U.S. and global economies were able to withstand three body blows in 2005--one of the worst tsunamis on record (which struck at the very end of 2004), one of the worst hurricanes on record and the highest energy prices after Hurricane Katrina--without missing a beat. This resilience was especially remarkable in the case of the United States, which since 2000 has been able to shrug off the biggest stock-market drop since the 1930s, a major terrorist attack, corporate scandals and war. Does this mean that recessions are a relic of the past? No, but recent events do suggest that the global economy's "immune system" is now strong enough to absorb shocks that 25 years ago would probably have triggered a downturn. In fact, over the past two decades, recessions have not disappeared, but have become considerably milder in many parts of the world. What explains this enhanced recession resistance? The answer: a combination of good macroeconomic policies and improved microeconomic flexibility. Since the mid-1980s, central banks worldwide have had great success in taming inflation. This has meant that long-term interest rates are at levels not seen in more than 40 years. A low-inflation and low-interest-rate environment is especially conducive to sustained, robust growth. Moreover, central bankers have avoided some of the policy mistakes of the earlier oil shocks (in the mid-1970s and early 1980s), during which they typically did too much too late, and exacerbated the ensuing recessions. Even more important, in recent years the Fed has been particularly adept at crisis management, aggressively cutting interest rates in response to stock-market crashes, terrorist attacks and weakness in the economy. The benign inflationary picture has also benefited from increasing competitive pressures, both worldwide (thanks to globalization and the rise of Asia as a manufacturing juggernaut) and domestically (thanks to technology and deregulation). Since the late 1970s, the United States, the United Kingdom and a handful of other countries have been especially aggressive in deregulating their financial and industrial sectors. This has greatly increased the flexibility of their economies and reduced their vulnerability to inflationary shocks. Looking ahead, what all this means is that a global or U.S. recession will likely be avoided in 2006, and probably in 2007 as well. Whether the current expansion will be able to break the record set in the 1990s for longevity will depend on the ability of central banks to keep the inflation dragon at bay and to avoid policy mistakes. The prospects look good. Inflation is likely to remain a low-level threat for some time, and Ben Bernanke, the incoming chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, spent much of his academic career studying the past mistakes of the Fed and has vowed not to repeat them. At the same time, no single shock will likely be big enough to derail the expansion. What if oil prices rise to $80 or $90 a barrel? Most estimates suggest that growth would be cut by about 1 percent--not good, but no recession. What if U.S. house prices fall by 5 percent in 2006 (an extreme assumption, given that house prices haven't fallen nationally in any given year during the past four decades)? Economic growth would slow by about 0.5 percent to 1 percent. What about another terrorist attack? Here the scenarios can be pretty scary, but an attack on the order of 9/11 or the Madrid or London bombings would probably have an even smaller impact on overall GDP growth.
|
Behravesh 06 (Nariman, most accurate economist tracked by USA Today and chief global economist and executive vice president for Global Insight, Newsweek, “The Great Shock Absorber; Good macroeconomic policies and improved microeconomic flexibility have strengthened the global economy's 'immune system.'” 10-15-2006, www.newsweek.com/id/47483)
|
The U.S. and global economies were able to withstand three body blows in 2005--one of the worst tsunamis on record one of the worst hurricanes on record and the highest energy prices after Hurricane Katrina--without missing a beat. This resilience was especially remarkable in the case of the U S which since 2000 has been able to shrug off the biggest stock-market drop since the 1930s, a major terrorist attack, corporate scandals and war. recent events do suggest that the global economy's "immune system" is now strong enough to absorb shocks that 25 years ago would probably have triggered a downturn. What explains this enhanced recession resistance? The answer: a combination of good macroeconomic policies and improved microeconomic flexibility. in recent years the Fed has been particularly adept at crisis management, aggressively cutting interest rates in response to stock-market crashes, terrorist attacks and weakness in the economy. Bernanke spent much of his academic career studying the past mistakes of the Fed and has vowed not to repeat them. no single shock will likely be big enough to derail the expansion. an attack on the order of 9/11 or the Madrid or London bombings would probably have an even smaller impact on overall GDP growth.
|
-- Economy is resilient
| 3,536 | 24 | 1,259 | 574 | 4 | 204 | 0.006969 | 0.355401 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,082 |
We find evidence that China’s exports indeed have become more sensitive to export distance in times of rising oil prices. We also find that these effects are more pronounced for processing exports, where goods must cross borders multiple times. On the other hand, we find that goods shipped by air are less vulnerable to these effects, consistent with their higher value-to-weight ratio and the relatively greater importance of factors other than transportation cost – such as timeliness – for these goods. While these results are statistically significant, their economic effects are relatively small. We estimate that the quadrupling of oil prices between 2002 and 2008 has increased the elasticity of Chinese exports to distance by a mere 5-7 per cent. Our analysis therefore suggests that the concerns of business analysts that rising oil prices will significantly increase trade’s sensitivity to distance are likely overblown.
|
Gangnes 11 (Byron S. Gangnes Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA and Yokohama National University, Yokohama, Japan Alyson C. Ma School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, San Diego, California, USA, and Ari Van Assche Department of International Business, HEC Montre´al, Montre´al, Canada and LICOS Centre of Institutions and Economic Performance, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven, Belgium, “China’s exports in a world of increasing oil prices,” Multinational Business Review19.2, 2011, 133-151)
|
We find evidence that China’s exports indeed have become more sensitive to export distance in times of rising oil prices these effects are more pronounced for processing exports, where goods must cross borders multiple times goods shipped by air are less vulnerable to these effects, consistent with their higher value-to-weight ratio and the relatively greater importance of factors other than transportation cost – such as timeliness We estimate that the quadrupling of oil prices between 2002 and 2008 has increased the elasticity of Chinese exports to distance by a mere 5-7 per cent the concerns of business analysts that rising oil prices will significantly increase trade’s sensitivity to distance are likely overblown.
|
Chinese exports are resilient – air shipping solves
| 926 | 51 | 724 | 144 | 8 | 112 | 0.055556 | 0.777778 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,083 |
With all the great economic strides China has made, it is sometimes easy to forget that China is still a communist country and is controlled by the Communist Party of China. Part of that Communist control is over prices. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) controls the prices on thousands of items: Drugs, grain, edible oils, pork, noodles, milk, eggs, cigarettes, cloth, steel, train and bus fares, cement, fertilizer, college tuition ... and fuel. Last week, the NDRC raised the price of gasoline and diesel by 17% and 18% respectively. If rising fuel prices are bad for the U.S. economy, they must be just as bad for the Chinese economy, right? At least that is the popular advice being delivered by many of the so-called experts and financial shrills on Wall Street. Wrong! It would be a huge mistake to think this fuel price increase will somehow derail the Chinese economy! Here are three reasons why: Reason #1: Gas prices are not nearly as important to the typical Chinese citizen, who doesn't even own a vehicle, let alone drive a gas-guzzling SUV. Most people walk, ride a bike or scooter that gets 100 MPG, or use public transportation (buses, rail, or subway) to get around. The first mention of bicycles in China was in 1860, when a European official wrote of seeing a velocipede, an early version of the bicycle, newly-arrived from Paris. Nowadays, China is known as the world’s bicycle kingdom. The result is that transportation costs are a very minor monthly expense for Chinese consumers. In other words, higher fuel costs are not hitting disposable incomes in China like here in the U.S. The most recent retail sales numbers in China showed a 21% jump in May compared to the same period 12 months ago! Reason #2: Gas is still cheap in China. Prices are still under those in the free market. Even after this increase, a gallon of gas costs about $3. That's 25% less than what we pay in the U.S. The result is that Beijing is still subsidizing the cost of fuel across China ... just not as much as before. Reason #3: The last price hike did not slow China's economy. There seems to be no correlation between higher fuel prices and an economic slowdown in China. The NDRC raised fuel prices by 10% last November when oil was $90 a barrel but the Chinese economy didn't miss a beat. China's GDP grew by 11.9% in 2007 and the World Bank just upped its 2008 forecast to 9.8%. All statistics indicate that China is still growing like a weed. Look, China consumed an average 7.86 million barrels of oil per day in 2007 — 9.3% of the world's total. Meanwhile, the United States went through 20.7 million barrels of oil per day or 24% of the world total last year.
|
Tony Sagami, 6/24/2008. Owner and founder of Harvest Advisors, an investment research and money management company and advisor for East Asian investment to Money and Markets. “Higher Gas Prices Will Help the Chinese Economy,” Money and Markets, http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/issues.aspx?Higher-Gas-Prices-Will-Help-the-Chinese-Economy-1904.
|
it is sometimes easy to forget that China is still a communist country Part of that Communist control is over prices It would be a huge mistake to think this fuel price increase will somehow derail the Chinese economy! Reason #1: Gas prices are not nearly as important to the typical Chinese citizen, who doesn't even own a vehicle higher fuel costs are not hitting disposable incomes in China like here in the U.S. The most recent retail sales numbers in China showed a 21% jump in May compared to the same period 12 months ago! Reason #2: Gas is still cheap in China. Prices are still under those in the free market. Even after this increase Reason #3: The last price hike did not slow China's economy The NDRC raised fuel prices by 10% last November when oil was $90 a barrel but the Chinese economy didn't miss a beat. China's GDP grew by 11.9% in 2007 and the World Bank just upped its 2008 forecast to 9.8%.
|
High prices don’t hurt China—they don’t affect average citizens as much as in the US.
| 2,691 | 86 | 913 | 477 | 15 | 169 | 0.031447 | 0.354298 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,084 |
Although there are some who worry that al-Qaeda has been able to reconstitute itself and is now on the march (see Bergen 2007; Hoffman 2008; Mazzetti and Rohde 2008),2 estimates of the size of al-Qaeda central generally come in with numbers in the same order of magnitude as those suggested by Sageman. Egyptian intelligence, for example, puts the number at less than 200, while American intelligence estimates run from 300 to upwards of 500 (Wright 2008). One retired U.S. intelligence officer suggests it could be "as many as 2000" (Mazzetti and Rohde 2008), but that number should obviously be taken essentially to define the upper range of contemporary estimates. Another way to evaluate the threat is to focus on the actual amount of violence perpetrated around the world by Muslim extremists since 9/11 outside of war zones. Included in the count would be terrorism of the much-publicized and fearinducing sort that occurred in Bali in 2002, in Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Turkey in 2003, in the Philippines, Madrid, and Egypt in 2004, and in London and Jordan in 2005. Three think-tank publications have independently provided lists of such incidents. Although these tallies make for grim reading, the total number of people killed comes to some 200 or 300 per year. That, of course, is 200 or 300 per year too many, but it hardly suggests that the perpetrators present a major threat, much less an existential one. For comparison: over the same period far more people have drowned in bathtubs in the United States alone. Another comparison comes from the consequences of policies instituted by the Transportation Security Administration. Increased delays and added costs at airports due to new security procedures provide incentive for many short-haul passengers to drive to their destination rather than flying. Since driving is far riskier than air travel, the extra automobile traffic generated by increased airport security screening measures has been estimated to result in 400 or more fatalities per year (Ellig et al. 2006: 35). Another assessment comes from astronomer Alan Harris. Using State Department figures, he estimates a worldwide death rate from international terrorism outside of war zones of 1,000 per year—that is, he assumes in his estimate that there would be another 9/11 somewhere in the world every several years. Over an 80 year period under those conditions some 80,000 deaths would occur which would mean that the probability that a resident of the globe will die at the hands of international terrorists is about one in 75,000 (6 billion divided by 80,000). In comparison, an American's chance of dying in an auto accident over the same time interval is about one in 80. If there are no repeats of 9/11, the probability of being killed by an international terrorist becomes more like one in 120,000.
|
Mueller 09 (John, Prof. Pol. Sci. – Ohio State U., in “American Foreign Policy and the Politics of Fear Threat inflation since 9/11”, Ed. A. Trevor Thrall and Jane K. Cramer, p. 194)
|
Another way to evaluate the threat is to focus on the actual amount of violence perpetrated around the world by Muslim extremists since 9/11 the total number of people killed comes to some 200 or 300 per year. it hardly suggests that the perpetrators present a major threat, much less an existential one over the same period far more people have drowned in bathtubs in the United States alone. the probability that a resident of the globe will die at the hands of international terrorists is about one in 75,000 , an American's chance of dying in an auto accident over the same time interval is about one in 80.
|
Small impact—no way terror will cause extinction
| 2,835 | 48 | 611 | 464 | 7 | 110 | 0.015086 | 0.237069 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,085 |
Measured in terms of acuity, terrorism pales in comparison to nuclear weapons and climate change. A nuclear exchange and several degrees of global warming threaten the existence of the entire planet rather than select targets on the surface. Terrorists have no interest in destroying the world, nor do they possess the means to end the human race. Their goals and capacities are considerably more circumscribed, and that applies even to al-Qaeda. In terms of scope, the number of victims of terrorism remains relatively low compared to the casualty rates connected to disease, malnutrition, or conventional military conflict. The number of terrorist attacks has certainly increased since the invasion of Iraq. In 2001, the peak in terrorist fatalities to that time, international terrorist attacks killed 3,572 persons and injured 1,083. By 2006, those numbers had risen to 11,170 deaths and 38,191 injuries, approximately half occurring in Iraq alone.6 In contrast even to these higher numbers, however, more than 2,000 children die each day in sub-Saharan Africa as a result of malaria, a preventable disease.7 Several hundred thousand people died as a result of the 2004 earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean. Nearly four million people have died as a result of the Congo conflict. Finally, there is the question of duration. Al-Qaeda is a relatively recent phenomenon. Its concerns were originally quite specific—to compel the United States to withdraw its troops from Saudi Arabia. It was on the verge of extinction after the collapse of its patron, the Taliban, in Afghanistan in 2001. If approached with the appropriate legal mechanisms—and with the discriminate force associated with law enforcement undertaken with due respect for human rights8 —al-Qaeda will once again retreat into obscurity. Regional wars, by contrast, have been with us for millennia. Global inequalities have persisted since the age of colonialism. Though of more recent vintage, nuclear weapons will be very difficult to get rid of, and the half-life of uranium 235 is 700 million years. These are indeed durable challenges. In another decade, after appropriate counter-terrorism measures, the current "greatest threat to world peace" will likely be demoted in importance. Terrorism, after all, was at the top of Ronald Reagan's agenda when he took office in 1981. But as the number of attacks began to decline, particularly in the 1990s, so did the U.S. evaluation of the threat.9 It can be plausibly argued that the symbolic nature of terrorist attacks far exceeds the number of casualties. The argument here is not to ignore terrorism but simply put it into perspective. To elevate terrorism to the status of a "major threat" is to give more power to the terrorists than they deserve.
|
Feffer and Gershman 07 (John Feffer and John Gershman, Just Counter-Terrorism, July 5, 2007, http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/4360)
|
Terrorists have no interest in destroying the world, nor do they possess the means to end the human race. Their goals and capacities are considerably more circumscribed, and that applies even to al-Qaeda the number of victims of terrorism remains relatively low Al-Qaeda is a relatively recent phenomenon If approached with the appropriate legal mechanisms al-Qaeda will once again retreat into obscurity the symbolic nature of terrorist attacks far exceeds the number of casualties To elevate terrorism to the status of a "major threat" is to give more power to the terrorists than they deserve
|
Terror won’t cause extinction
| 2,774 | 29 | 595 | 442 | 4 | 95 | 0.00905 | 0.214932 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,086 |
Developing chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in most cases requires vastly sophisticated laboratories staffed by large teams of research scientists working continuously for several years. That is powerfully true of nuclear weapons production, obviously. 85 It is also strongly true of the production of chemical weapons such as nerve gas. 86 And even the more straightforward production of biological weapons would require ‘a modestly sophisticated pharmaceutical industry’. 87 ‘Rogue states’ (as well as, of course, The United States) have been able to mount sustained research efforts of these sorts. But no known terrorist group has itself been able to sustain the sort of research and development programme that would lead to their independent development of weapons of mass destruction.
|
Goodin 06 (Robert E. Goodin is Distinguished Professor of Social and Political Theory at the Australian National University, What’s Wrong with Terrorism?, pg. 140-1)
|
Developing chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons in most cases requires vastly sophisticated laboratories staffed by large teams of research scientists working continuously for several years That is powerfully true of nuclear weapons production It is also strongly true of the production of chemical weapons even the more straightforward production of biological weapons would require ‘a modestly sophisticated pharmaceutical industry no known terrorist group has itself been able to sustain the sort of research and development programme that would lead to their independent development of weapons of mass destruction
|
Terrorists can’t develop WMD
| 798 | 28 | 621 | 119 | 4 | 88 | 0.033613 | 0.739496 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,087 |
With all of the lethal substances available for CBRN weapons, it might seem amazing that only a tiny fraction of all terrorist attacks have used or attempted to use these unconventional weapons. 13 Several barriers block terrorists from acquir-ing or even considering acquisition of CBRN weapons. Arguably, the biggest barrier resides in the mind of the terrorist. As renowned terrorism psychologist Jerrold Post has observed, “We are in the paradoxical posi-tion of having a clearer understanding of the interior of the atom than we do of the interior of the mind of the terrorist.” 14 According to Post, terrorists confront a motivational paradox. “On the one hand, to be motivated to carry out an act of mass destruction suggests profound psychological distortions usually found only in severely disturbed individuals, such as paranoid psychotics. On the other hand, to implement an act of nuclear terrorism requires not only organizational skills but also the ability to work cooperatively with a small team.” 15 A similar paradox holds for terrorists’ motivations to do advanced forms of chemical, biological, or radiological terrorism.
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Ferguson 09 (Charles D. Ferguson is a fellow in the science and technology program at the Council on Foreign Relations and adjunct assistance professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, “WMD Terrorism” in Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Future of International Nonproliferation Policy, ed. Nathan E. Busch and Daniel H. Joyner, 2009, pg. 39)
|
only a tiny fraction of all terrorist attacks have used or attempted to use unconventional weapons Several barriers block terrorists from acquir-ing or even considering acquisition of CBRN weapons the biggest barrier the mind of the terrorist to be motivated to carry out an act of mass destruction suggests profound psychological distortions On the other hand, to implement an act of nuclear terrorism requires not only organizational skills but also the ability to work cooperatively with a small team A similar paradox holds for terrorists’ motivations to do advanced forms of chemical, biological, or radiological terrorism
|
Terrorists willing to use WMD weapons don’t have the skills
| 1,142 | 59 | 628 | 178 | 10 | 96 | 0.05618 | 0.539326 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,088 |
Being effective means beginning from a different position. We need to start by saying that the Taliban and al-Qaeda do not represent an existential threat to the United States. They are not large, they are not powerful, and they are not unified in anything except their opposition to the intervention of the United States and NATO. These adversaries need to be isolated, delegitimized, and undermined, not confronted as an equal on the battlefield.
|
Berrigan 09 (Frida, Senior Program Associate of the Arms and Security Initiative at the New America Foundation, “Afghanistan War Trumps Elections,” August 26, 2009, http://www.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2009/afghanistan_war_trumps_elections_11782)
|
the Taliban and al-Qaeda do not represent an existential threat to the United States
|
No threat from Middle East terrorism
| 448 | 36 | 84 | 73 | 6 | 14 | 0.082192 | 0.191781 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,089 |
So it turns out that Arabs-or more broadly Muslims-can fight after all. We may surmise that they now realize that fighting effectively requires that they do so on their own terms rather than mimicking the West. They don't need and don't want tanks and fighter-bombers. What many Westerners dismiss as "terrorism," whether directed against Israelis, Americans, or others in the West, ought to be seen as a panoply of techniques employed to undercut the apparent advantages of high-tech conventional forces. The methods employed do include terrorism-violence targeting civilians for purposes of intimidation-but they also incorporate propaganda, subversion, popular agitation, economic warfare, and hit-and-run attacks on regular forces, either to induce an overreaction or to wear them down. The common theme of those techniques, none of which are new, is this: avoid the enemy's strengths; exploit enemy vulnerabilities. What are the implications of this new Islamic Way of War? While substantial, they fall well short of being apocalyptic. As Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has correctly-if perhaps a trifle defensively-observed, "Our enemy knows they cannot defeat us in battle." Neither the Muslim world nor certainly the Arab world poses what some like to refer to as "an existential threat" to the United States. Despite overheated claims that the so-called Islamic fascists pose a danger greater than Hitler ever did, the United States is not going to be overrun, even should the forces of al-Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi insurgents, and Shi'ite militias along with Syria and Iran all combine into a unified anti-Crusader coalition. Although Israelis for historical reasons are inclined to believe otherwise, the proximate threat to Israel itself is only marginally greater. Although neither Israel nor the United States can guarantee its citizens "perfect security"-what nation can?-both enjoy ample capabilities for self-defense.
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Bacevich 06 (Andrew J. Bacevich is professor of history and international relations at Boston University, The Islamic Way of War, American Conservative, Sep 11, 2006. Vol. 5, Iss. 17, ProQuest)
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What are the implications of this new Islamic Way of War? While substantial, they fall well short of being apocalyptic. Neither the Muslim world nor certainly the Arab world poses what some like to refer to as "an existential threat" to the United States. the United States is not going to be overrun, even should the forces of al-Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi insurgents, and Shi'ite militias along with Syria and Iran all combine into a unified anti-Crusader coalition.
|
Mideast terrorism could never cause extinction, even if all terrorist groups and states banded together
| 1,964 | 103 | 472 | 297 | 15 | 78 | 0.050505 | 0.262626 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,090 |
Most major European countries had already been through some sort of terrorist crisis well before the current fashion for "Islamist" terrorism: the IRA in Britain, the OAS in France, ETA in Spain, the Baader-Meinhof Gang in Germany, the Red Brigades and their neo-fascist counterparts in Italy. Most European cities have also been heavily bombed in a real war within living memory, which definitely puts terrorist attacks into a less impressive category. So most Europeans, while they dislike terrorist attacks, do not obsess about them. They know that they are more likely to win the lottery than to be hurt by terrorists. Russians are also pretty cool about the occasional terrorist attacks linked to the war in Chechnya, and Indians are positively heroic in their refusal (most of the time) to be panicked by terrorist attacks that have taken more lives there than all the attacks in the West since terrorist techniques first became widespread in the 1960s. In almost all of these countries, despite the efforts of some governments to convince the population that terrorism is an existential threat of enormous size, the vast majority of the people don't believe it. Whereas in the United States, most people do believe it. A majority of Americans have finally figured out that the invasion of Iraq really had nothing to do with fighting terrorism, but they certainly have not understood that terrorism itself is only a minor threat. "We have a threat out there like we've never faced before," said actor, former senator and potential presidential candidate Fred Thompson last month - on Fox television, admittedly, but they wouldn't have called him a nutcase or laughed in his face on the other networks either. "I don't think the (American people) realize that this has been something that's been going on for a few hundred years, and our enemies have another 100-year plan," Thompson continued. "...Whether it's Madrid, whether it's London, whether it's places that most people have never heard of, they're methodically going around trying to undermine our allies and attack people in conventional ways, while they try to develop non-conventional ways, and get their hands on a nuclear capability, and ultimately to see a mushroom cloud over an American city." There has been only one major terrorist attack in the United States since the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, and that one, on 9/11, is now almost six years in the past. So how have Americans been persuaded that their duty and their destiny in the 21st century is to lead the world in a titanic, globe-spanning "long war" against terrorism? Inexperience is one reason: American cities have never been bombed in war, so Americans have no standard of comparison that would shrink terrorism to its true importance in the scale of threats that face any modern society. But the other is relentless official propaganda: the Bush administration has built its whole brand around the "war on terror" since 2001, so the threat must continue to be seen as huge and universal. Ridiculous though it sounds to outsiders, Americans are regularly told that their survival as a free society depends on beating the "terrorists." They should treat those who say such things as fools or deliberate liars, but they don't. So the manipulators of public opinion in the White House and the more compliant sectors of the US media will give bigger play to the British bombings-that-weren't than Britain's own government and media have, and they will get away with it.
|
Dyer 07 (Gwynne Dyer, Inept U.K. terrorists will be taken way too seriously - in the United States, The Athens News, Jul 5, 2007, ProQuest)
|
despite the efforts of some governments to convince the population that terrorism is an existential threat of enormous size, the vast majority of the people don't believe it. Whereas in the United States, most people do believe it. Inexperience is one reason: American cities have never been bombed in war, so Americans have no standard of comparison that would shrink terrorism to its true importance the other is relentless official propaganda: the Bush administration has built its whole brand around the "war on terror" since 2001, so the threat must continue to be seen as huge and universal Ridiculous though it sounds to outsiders, Americans are regularly told that their survival as a free society depends on beating the "terrorists.
|
American inexperience and media exaggerate terror risk- Very low in reality
| 3,506 | 75 | 741 | 580 | 11 | 120 | 0.018966 | 0.206897 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,091 |
In the end, what may well stop groups like Al-Qaeda from using bioweapons to achieve their aims against us it that it is just too much trouble. Not only are biological weapons exceedingly dif-ficult to build and operate, the United States has now developed vaccines or drugs to counter most known conventional patho-gens. Countermeasures for the rest should be available over the next few years. We have the Strategic National Stockpile, Push Packages, and vendor-managed inventories, as well as the abil-ity to deliver these materials and more to an attack site within a matter of hours. We could suffer casualties, yes, but not mass casualties. Conventional bombs and chemicals are must easier to obtain and use, and can achieve much the same ends with less risk. Sophisticated terrorist groups may well agree with virtually all professional of the military establishments around the world that actually had effective bioweapons in hand: they are simply not worth the bother. For at least the near future, bioterrorism for Al-Qaeda and its ilk may be a non-starter.
|
Clark 08 (William R. Clark, Bracing for Armageddon?: The Science and Politics of Bioterrorism in America, 2008, pg. 183)
|
what may stop groups like Al-Qaeda from using bioweapons to achieve their aims against us it that it is just too much trouble Not only are biological weapons exceedingly dif-ficult to build and operate, the United States has now developed vaccines or drugs to counter most known conventional patho-gens We could suffer casualties, yes, but not mass casualties they are simply not worth the bother. For at least the near future, bioterrorism for Al-Qaeda and its ilk may be a non-starter
|
No motivation, no access and vaccines check the impact
| 1,067 | 54 | 486 | 173 | 9 | 81 | 0.052023 | 0.468208 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,092 |
Of the rapidly growing "BRIC" countries—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—Russia has always been a sort of odd man out. While the others have registered double-digit or near double-digit growth for years, the Russian economy has grown at a much more moderate pace. Experts have even argued that Russia shouldn't be grouped with Brazil, India, and China because its population is much older and its economy is much more industrialized, therefore it's not expected to grow at a rate comparable to the others. But lately, Russia's economy has been benefiting from what many other nations, including the United States, are struggling with. "[Russia is] truly one of the major global beneficiaries of higher gas prices," says John Derrick, director of research at U.S. Global Investors. [See U.S. News's 100 Best Mutual Funds for the Long Term.] While higher oil prices are a cause for concern in the United States, they are providing a lift for resource-rich Russia, the world's largest producer of oil and second-largest producer of natural gas as well as the largest non-OPEC exporter of oil. Vlad Milev, manager of the Metzler/Payden European Emerging Markets Fund (symbol MPYMX), says the country's entire economy is reaping the benefits. The Russian government takes a portion of oil revenues and distributes them throughout the economy, Milev says, which creates a trickle-down effect for other Russian businesses and consumers. "So that gives a boost to the economy as well," he says. So far this year, emerging markets have struggled to keep up with developed nations like the United States for a number of reasons, most notably unrest in the Middle East and higher inflation concerns. Year-to-date through March 28, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost about 1 percent, according to Bloomberg. (The S&P 500, on the other hand, gained about 5 percent over the same time period.) Of the four BRIC markets, Russia is leading the way. The MICEX Index, which is made up of 30 Russian stocks from 10 sectors of the economy, has returned 15 percent so far this year. The next-best BRIC performer is China, with a 5 percent gain for the Shanghai Composite Index. Brazil's Bovespa Index was down 2 percent as of March 28, and India's Sensex Index lost 10 percent over the same period of time. Russia has also gotten a boost from the ruble, which has gained about 7 percent against the U.S. dollar so far this year. Derrick calls the ruble a "commodity currency" because it generally benefits from higher commodity prices. "Roughly half the return [so far this year] has been currency related," says Derrick, who also helps manage the U.S. Global Investors Eastern European Fund (EUROX). "The dynamics are pretty favorable for the ruble."
|
Baden 11 (Ben, Money and Business reporter at U.S. News & World Report. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/author/ben-baden#ixzz1gSZPAUZO 4/5/11, “ Russia Stocks Soar on Rising Oil Prices When gas prices move higher, the Russian economy generally benefits”, http://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/mutual-funds/articles/2011/04/05/russia-stocks-soar-on-rising-oil-prices
|
Of the BRIC Russia has always been a sort of odd man out the Russian economy has grown at a much more moderate pace Russia is much older and its economy is much more industrialized, lately, Russia's economy has been benefiting from higher oil prices providing a lift for Russia the world's largest producer of the country's entire economy is reaping the benefits The government takes a portion of oil revenues and distributes them throughout the economy which creates a trickle-down effect for other Russian businesses and consumers The dynamics are pretty favorable for the ruble
|
Russia’s economy is on the brick – high prices create bottom up capital infusion that sustains the Russian economy
| 2,732 | 115 | 580 | 451 | 19 | 96 | 0.042129 | 0.21286 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,093 |
WAR IN ASIA Both conventional wisdom and the political science literature posit that substantial state decline, or the appearance thereof, can invite foreign adventurism. To date, Russia’s military weakness has not been seen as an invitation for ambitious rival states to wrest away a chunk of Russian territory. Russia’s large arsenal of strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons is no doubt a factor. This may change over the next decade or so, particularly if Russia continues to weaken and demographic trends stay on their present downward paths. The Scenario This scenario takes place around the year 2015 and assumes that Russia has continued to deteriorate militarily throughout the inter- vening period. This decline has been especially severely felt in the Far East, where troops are unfed, unpaid, and untrained, and equipment is obsolete. Chinese migration into the Far East and Russian emigration from it have continued, and significant numbers of Chinese have settled permanently in the area. Beijing, whose military might has increased as Russia’s has declined, has begun to make noises about its historic right to southeastern Russia, territory that was annexed between 1858 and 1860 from a China weakened by the Opium Wars. In 2015, with a rapidly growing Chinese population in that area (where families are unhindered by population control regulations), Beijing is able to create considerable domestic support for “reclaiming” the territory. Domestic pressure in China to take back the “lost territories” is bol- stered by an increasingly hostile Russian policy and attitude toward Chinese immigrants. Driven by ethnic tensions that have increased along with the Chinese population, laws now limit the duration and location of Chinese residency. Discrimination in employment and housing against people of East Asian ancestry is rampant. Despite this, economic opportunities attract more and more Chinese to the area. Whatever “strategic partnership” might once have been evolving between Beijing and Moscow has long disappeared and relations between the two countries are poisoned by Russian anti-Chinese sentiment and Beijing’s insistence on pursuing the rights of co- ethnics living in Russia and rumblings about regaining long-lost land. In addition to historical claims and the desire to protect the rights of ethnic Chinese, China has a strategic interest in the land southeast of the Amur River. This territory provides an outlet to the Sea of Japan, an outlet China now lacks. Illustrative Scenarios China’s strategy for acquiring the territory is based on a plan to provoke Russia into attacking Chinese forces in the region. China, pleading self-defense, could then counterattack into Russia. Beijing, possessing by now a large strategic nuclear force, is confident that Moscow will not risk nuclear war and the destruction of European Russia to defend the poor and underpopulated Far East. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) therefore begins to shift more forces toward the border with Russia. The plan goes awry, however, when Chinese forces get into a firefight with Russian border guards near the border at the Ussuri River. Chinese commanders on the scene seize territory in Primorsky Krai; the weak and disorganized Russian forces in the region are able to put up little resistance. With this fait accompli, Beijing orders its navy to gear up for an amphibious landing at Vladivostok and elsewhere on the coast. See Figure 8.1. Japan is alarmed by this turn of events. It sees the land grab in Russia as an example of aggressive Chinese military adventurism and feels particularly threatened by the prospect of a Chinese outlet to the Sea of Japan. After consultations, Japan and Russia decide that, given both states’ relative military weakness, it is time to call on the United States for help. Washington initially offers to mediate, but while China responds that it is willing to enter into talks, the PLA continues to shift more forces to the Russian border and ships are heading for Vladivostok. Russia therefore invokes its status as a Partnership for Peace state to request NATO consultations. Japan, in turn, asks the United States to assist in rolling back the Chinese land grab in Russia. Implications This scenario may at first read more like fiction than a plausible future. Projecting 15 years forward is difficult under the best of cir- cumstances, and doing it with regard to two states in as much flux as Russia and China is particularly challenging. Furthermore, even if events were to evolve as outlined, the United States would retain freedom of choice: it would be under no obligation to intervene to defend Russia against the Chinese. On the other hand, especially if U.S.-Chinese relations continue to deteriorate, the United States may find it difficult to refuse the request of its close ally, Tokyo, and a Russia in need. Furthermore, a conflict between Russia and China would be a clash between two nuclear weapon states. Although China has a “no first use” policy, Russia does not. This scenario posits that Beijing is bet- ting that the nuclear taboo will hold, but one can easily imagine that a Russia that is weakened conventionally and facing a foreign incursion onto its soil may feel that it has no choice but to escalate to nuclear use. Thus, this scenario is not likely but is included because it has serious implications for U.S. interests. While the probability of such a course of events is low, it is far from negligible, for China does have interests in the Russian Far East, and Japan (like other states in the region) is highly attuned to the possibility of Chinese adventurism.
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Oliker 2 (Olga and Tanya Charlick-Paley, RAND Corporation Project Air Force, Assessing Russia’s Decline – Trends and Implications for the United States and the U.S. Air Force, www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1442/)
|
conventional wisdom and the political science literature posit state decline can invite foreign adventurism in the Far East troops are unfed unpaid and untrained and equipment is obsolete Chinese migration into the Far East and Russian emigration from it have continued and significant numbers of Chinese have settled permanently in the area Beijing whose military might has increased has begun to make noises about its historic right to southeastern Russia Whatever strategic partnership might once have been evolving between Beijing and Moscow has long disappeared relations between the two countries are poisoned by Russian anti-Chinese sentiment China’s strategy for acquiring the territory is based on a plan to provoke Russia into attacking Chinese forces in the region China could then counterattack into Russia disorganized Russian forces in the region are able to put up little resistance a conflict between Russia and China would be a clash between two nuclear weapon states a Russia that is weakened conventionally and facing a foreign incursion onto its soil may feel that it has no choice but to escalate to nuclear use
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Russian economic collapse causes a nuclear Russia-China war.
| 5,654 | 61 | 1,132 | 910 | 8 | 178 | 0.008791 | 0.195604 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,094 |
MOSCOW — Whatever the eventual outcome of the Arab world’s social upheaval, there is a clear economic winner so far: Vladimir V. Putin. Russia, which pumps more oil than Saudi Arabia, is reaping a windfall from the steep rise in global energy prices resulting from instability in oil regions of the Middle East and North Africa. Riding the high oil prices, the Russian ruble has risen faster against the dollar this year than any other currency, which is helpful because it will curb consumer inflation during an election year. Russian stocks are buoyant, too: the Micex index closed last week at 1,781, up nearly 6 percent since the beginning of the year. (Monday was a holiday in Russia.) But the Russians could not step in to offset any potential big drop in global production, because Russia does not have any oil wells standing idle that would allow it to increase production. Right now Russia is pumping oil at its top capacity. But at last week’s closing of $114, the price of each of those barrels of Ural crude, the countries main export blend, has risen 24 percent since the beginning of the year. Last week, the prime minister, Mr. Putin, sat down for a meeting with Russia’s finance minister, Aleksei L. Kudrin, which was nationally televised on state news channels for the public’s enlightenment as the two discussed, just short of gloating, the benefits to Russia of a global oil panic. “Mr. Kudrin, budget revenues have become considerable,” Mr. Putin said matter-of-factly. Mr. Kudrin agreed, noting that if prices hold Russia will be able to resume contributions to its sovereign wealth funds for the first time since the summer of 2008, when the global recession began. One of those sovereign investment vehicles, the Reserve Fund, could reach $50 billion by the end of the year, Mr. Kudrin reported. Just a few months ago Russian officials planning the 2011 budget had anticipated the fund would be depleted. “Good,” Mr. Putin responded to Mr. Kudrin’s account, nodding with satisfaction. Russia, of course, does not have to look back farther than 2008 to see that a spike in the price of oil can be just that — followed by a dizzying drop. But for now, Russian energy is in favor. Russia’s perceived stability was a reason the French energy giant Total cited last week in agreeing to buy about 12 percent of an independent natural gas producer in Russia, Novatek, and join a liquefied natural gas project in the Russian Arctic. “The upheavals taking place in a number of the oil- and gas-producing countries now send a signal to investors to come to Russia,” Total’s chief executive, Christophe de Margerie, said in a meeting with President Dmitri A. Medvedev announcing the deal. Mr. Margerie said his company was committing about $4 billion to the venture. “Russia offers a much safer environment for investment,” he said. Oil experts say that because global production capacity for oil is still far larger than world demand, the run-up in prices is being fueled by fear more than by reality. The concern is that the violence in Libya could spread to other member states of the Organization for the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which are primarily Arab nations. Russia is not only outside OPEC, and thus free from the cartel’s production restraints, but also, with its formidable secret police apparatus and a population bulge among the elderly rather than the young, is seen as less vulnerable to an outbreak of social unrest. Russia has long jockeyed against Saudi Arabia, a member of OPEC, to be the world’s top oil-producing nation. Although the Saudis have more production capacity and vastly more reserves, Russia is pumping more oil. And if oil and natural gas are considered together, Russia is the largest energy-exporting nation. Which country is in first place for oil at any given moment depends on how the Saudis wield their swing production capacity, the cushion of unused wells and pipelines the Saudis can turn on to tamp down global prices. As the biggest OPEC member, Saudi Arabia is the cartel’s enforcer and enabler, with the power to influence global prices or to moderate global disruptions by how much of its production capacity it chooses to put to work. If the Saudis open the valves during periods of instability, Russia falls into second place as a producer — but still makes a healthy profit off higher prices. Russia has little incentive to invest in spare capacity — in part because being outside the OPEC cartel gives it less direct ability to influence prices through the ebb and flow of production. If anything, a large idle capacity by Russia would work against its financial interests — by acting as market insurance, and thus holding prices down — during periods of instability in the Middle East. Russian officials also say that spare capacity is too hard to maintain in their far northern country. Most of its current production comes from wells in Siberia that would freeze solid in the permafrost if not kept running. And the Russians will probably argue the new fields they plan to open in Arctic waters will be so expensive to drill that it would be unwise to later shut them down. “They are producing flat-out on a permanent basis,” Didier Houssin, the director of energy markets and security at the International Energy Agency in Paris, said via telephone. In the longer term for Russia, policies that encourage or discourage oil field investment are the bigger determinant of how much oil the country can provide to global markets. The energy agency forecasts that Russian energy output will remain about stable for five years, but will require increasing investments as the main oil provinces in western Siberia, having peaked years ago, continue to decline. In this respect, Middle East instability could bring longer-term benefits to Moscow than the current oil price spike, if it redirects even more of the Western oil industry’s investment to Siberia and the Russian Arctic shelf. The British oil giant BP cited Russia’s relative stability compared with OPEC regions, when BP in January announced a $7.8 billion deal to invest in the state-owned Russian oil company Rosneft and jointly search for oil in the Arctic. Later that month, Exxon Mobil, the biggest American oil company, signed a deal with Rosneft to explore offshore in the Black Sea. Unrest in North Africa is also strengthening Russia’s bargaining position with Europe on natural gas exports and pipeline politics — although Russian officials have used delicate phrasing to make this point. Aleksei B. Miller, the chief executive of Gazprom, in a visit to European capitals late last month, suggested that Europeans reconsider their opposition to new Russian pipeline proposals, in light of the “external situation” in North Africa, a region that competes with Russia to export pipeline gas to Europe.
|
Kramer 11 (Andrew, Journalist @ the New York Times, Russia Cashes In on Anxiety Over Supply of Middle East Oil, March 7th, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/08/business)
|
Whatever the outcome of the Arab world’s upheaval there is a clear economic winner so far Putin Russia is reaping a windfall from the steep rise in global energy prices resulting from instability in oil regions of the Middle East and North Africa Riding the high oil prices the Russian ruble has risen faster against the dollar this year than any other currency which is helpful because it will curb consumer inflation Russian stocks are buoyant at last week’s closing of $114 the price of each of those barrels of Ural crude has risen 24 percent since the beginning of the year budget revenues have become considerable that if prices hold Russia will be able to resume contributions to its sovereign wealth funds for the first time since 2008 when the global recession began One of those sovereign investment vehicles the Reserve Fund could reach $50 billion by the end of the year Russian energy is in favor Russia’s perceived stability was a reason energy giant Total cited last week in agreeing to buy about 12 percent of an independent gas producer in Russia The upheavals taking place in a number of the oil countries now send a signal to investors to come to Russia Russia offers a much safer environment for investment Russia is not only outside OPEC thus free from the cartel’s production restraints but is seen as less vulnerable to an outbreak of social unrest In the longer term for Russia policies that encourage or discourage oil field investment are the bigger determinant of how much oil the country can provide to global markets Russian energy output will remain about stable for five years but will require increasing investments as the main oil provinces in western Siberia having peaked years ago continue to decline In this respect Middle East instability could bring longer-term benefits to Moscow than the current oil price spike it redirects even more of the Western oil industry’s investment to Siberia and the Russian Arctic shelf BP cited Russia’s relative stability compared with OPEC regions when BP in January announced a $7.8 billion deal to invest in the state-owned Russian oil company and jointly search for oil in the Arctic Unrest in North Africa is also strengthening Russia’s bargaining position with Europe Miller suggested that Europeans reconsider their opposition to new Russian pipeline proposals in light of the external situation in North Africa a region that competes with Russia
|
High prices are key to Russian growth --- investment, inflation, stock prices, and the Russian ruble.
| 6,839 | 102 | 2,426 | 1,142 | 16 | 405 | 0.014011 | 0.354641 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,095 |
The Russian MICEX Index, which increased 22.5 percent in 2010, has jumped 15 percent so far in 2011, significantly outperforming many other markets. China is the second-best performer of the BRICs, rising more than 5 percent, while India (down over 10 percent) and Brazil (down over 2 percent) have lagged. Overall, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has dropped just over 1 percent. This has effectively recouped Russia with the other BRIC countries. The Russian economy lagged out-of-the-gate once the global recovery began, leading some to question whether it belonged in the same category as Brazil, China and India. Those sentiments seemed premature and symptomatic of an anti-Russia mindset. Russian’s outperformance has been driven by several factors. First, the Russian ruble has appreciated 7 percent against the U.S. dollar, boosting stock market performance for U.S. investors. This development also has a long-term benefit as a strong ruble benefits the country’s domestic sectors, something we’ll discuss later. A second factor driving Russia has been the geopolitical and natural disaster events that have transpired during the past few weeks. Russia is relatively safe from the type of political uprisings seen in the Middle East and North Africa. Its government is decidedly popular with the public and the one-two punch of President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin give the government clout on both international and domestic fronts. The price of oil has risen roughly 25 percent since the unrest and turmoil began in the Middle East and North Africa. As an energy exporter of crude oil and natural gas, Russia is one of the few large economies in the world that directly benefits from higher energy prices. Russia is the world’s largest oil producer and it’s estimated that for every $10 increase in the average annual price of oil, Russia’s revenues rise by $20 billion, according to the Financial Times. Since Russia is not a member of OPEC, it is not bound by production caps and can increase production as it sees fit while prices are at elevated levels. Russia is also the world’s top exporter of natural gas and Stratfor Intelligence points out the situation in Libya has shut down 11 billion cubic-meters of natural gas flow to Italy. As Europe’s third-largest consumer of natural gas, Italy has turned to Russia for gas supplies. In addition, a shutdown of several Japanese nuclear facilities could mean as much as a 14 percent increase in natural gas consumption to meet the Japan’s energy demands. In the energy sector, the Eastern European Fund (EUROX) portfolio emphasizes companies that show strong growth in production, reserves and cash flow, relative to their peers. Specifically, Novatek, Rosneft and TNK-BP fit this profile. Russian energy equities, which carry the largest weighting in the MICEX, have gained 25 percent this year. This is higher than non-oil Russian equities, which have risen only 7.7 percent. However, as oil and gas taxes swell the government’s revenue, these funds are increasingly allocated to social and public works programs which are likely to create an opportunity for non-energy related equities. These sectors appear poised to benefit from the current macroeconomic environment. This table from Merrill Lynch shows the performance of the different sectors of the Russian market following a sustained rise in oil prices. Merrill Lynch compiled research on the seven instances where oil prices rose 20 percent in a two-month span and maintained at least half those gains over the following six month period. Historically, the average gain for Russian equities is more than 34 percent. While energy generally jumps out ahead when oil prices move higher, you can see that it lags other sectors as the rally progresses. We have long been positive on both Russian financials and the consumer sector and these sectors appear well positioned going forward. Consumer-oriented equities such as retailers have historically been the best performers, netting an 85 percent gain on average and triple the gain of energy equities. Retailers X5 and Magnit should be able to capitalize on these trends. Russian financials are next with an average 83 percent gain. Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, is the largest holding in EUROX. Another area that could directly benefit from the Kremlin’s cash-filled pockets is infrastructure. Russia is in dire need of a significant revamping of its infrastructure. Similar to the American Society of Civil Engineers report that rates America’s infrastructure a “D,” the World Economic Forum says the quality of Russia’s infrastructure lags that of other emerging countries such as South Africa, Turkey, China and Mexico. The areas most in need of upgrading are Russia’s transportation and electrical power grid. The quality of Russia’s roads ranks in the bottom-third in the world, according to Merrill Lynch, and it’s estimated that Russia loses 6 percent of GDP each year due to underdeveloped roads. In fact, the combined length of Russia’s roadways declined 6 percent between 2002 and 2010 despite a 60 percent increase in car penetration, Merrill-Lynch says. It’s a similar story for Russia’s airports and rail network. Russia currently has roughly 300 operational airports but just 40 percent of them have paved runways and 30 percent do not have an airfield lighting system, Merrill Lynch says. The rail network, almost entirely constructed during the Soviet era, is highly concentrated in the Western region of the country and is estimated to require more than $70 billion in investment for upgrades and repairs by 2020, according to Merrill Lynch. Russia’s aging power grid is unreliable and accident-prone. Merrill Lynch projects that significant investment by 2020 is required to update and modernize the grid. With industrial consumers accounting for 85 percent of electrical consumption, keeping the power up and running is essential to maintaining Russia’s industrial production levels. To finance the much needed infrastructure improvements, the Russian government created the $420 billion Federal Target Program (FTP). The FTP focuses on key transportation areas such as rails, autos, marine and civil aviation. The FTP has specific goals to meet by 2015 such as increasing the percentage of roads that meet federal standards by 23 percent. The plan also calls for a 47 percent increase in the shipment of goods and a 40 percent increase in airline penetration through improvements of aviation infrastructure. In addition to the FTP, three special events will help drive Russia’s infrastructure spending: The 2012 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit, 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi and the 2018 World Cup. Merrill Lynch estimates that total spending for the World Cup will reach $50 billion. Construction for the Games in Sochi includes 161 miles of roads and 65 miles of rails, and the APEC calls for 48 new objects to be constructed for a total of $83 million. While higher energy prices are in danger of slowing down consumers in the U.S., Western Europe and certain emerging market countries, it has the opposite effect for the Russian economy. With increased cash flow from its natural gas and crude oil exports, the Russian government has the much-needed capital to invest in the country’s aging infrastructure and to support domestic consumption. This should drive outperformance of Russian markets throughout 2011 and stimulate demand for infrastructure-related commodities such as crude oil, copper, cement and iron ore.
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Holmes et al. 11 (Frank, John Derrick, and Tim Steinle, Co-managers of the U.S. Global Investors Eastern European Fund, What's Driving Russia's Outperformance?, http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/frank-talk/Eastern-Europe/Whats-Driving-Russias-Outperformance-5318/?CFID=3340758&CFTOKEN=38605250)
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The Russian Index significantly outperforming other markets Russian’s outperformance has been driven by geopolitical events that have transpired during the past few weeks Russia is safe from the type of political uprisings seen in the Middle East and North Africa The price of oil has risen roughly 25 percent since unrest and turmoil began in the Middle East and North Africa As an energy exporter of crude oil Russia is one of the few large economies in the world that directly benefits from higher energy prices Russia is the world’s largest oil producer it’s estimated that for every $10 increase in the average annual price of oil Russia’s revenues rise by $20 billion Since Russia is not a member of OPEC it is not bound by production caps and can increase production as it sees fit while prices are at elevated levels Russian energy equities have gained 25 percent this year gas taxes swell the government’s revenue these funds are increasingly allocated to social and public works programs which are likely to create an opportunity for non-energy related equities These sectors benefit from the current macroeconomic environment Another area that could directly benefit from the Kremlin’s cash-filled pockets is infrastructure Russia is in dire need of a significant revamping of its infrastructure The areas most in need are Russia’s transportation and electrical power grid It’s a similar story for Russia’s airports and rail network Russia’s aging power grid is unreliable and accident-prone higher energy price are in danger of slowing down consumers in the U.S. it has the opposite effect for the Russian economy With increased cash flow from oil exports the Russian government has the much-needed capital to invest and to support domestic consumption. This should drive outperformance of Russian markets and stimulate demand for infrastructure-related commodities
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High prices boost government revenue --- results in social spending, infrastructure development, and domestic liquidity.
| 7,540 | 121 | 1,877 | 1,192 | 15 | 298 | 0.012584 | 0.25 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,096 |
Extra budget revenues due to higher oil prices will allow Russia to effectively deal with its main financial issues, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday. Putin said that whereas the 2010 budget was based on a projected oil price of $58 per barrel, the average price so far this year had in fact exceeded $70. "We can make greater headway in solving our main financial problems. Above all, in reducing the budget deficit," he told a cabinet meeting, adding that in 2009 the deficit constituted 5.9% of GDP. He said the country's Reserve Fund could be used "more economically." Putin said economic growth was also higher than forecast several months ago. According to the Ministry of Economics and Trade it currently stands at 3.5-4.5% y-o-y, or possibly even higher. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said in mid-May the 2010 deficit would be 5.2-5.4% and that the budget would be balanced with an average oil price of $95 per barrel. The budget deficit in 2011 is expected at 4% of GDP with an oil price of $70 per barrel and 8% of GDP with a price of $50. Kudrin also said that the Reserve Fund would most likely last through 2011 and not be completely used up in 2010, as was previously expected. Russia, which continues to rely on raw material exports as its principal source of budget revenue, was badly affected by the 2008 global economic crisis, but a quicker-than-expected recovery of oil prices has eased pressure on the federal budget.
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Kudenko 10 (Aleksey, Staff Writer @ RIA Novista, High oil prices to solve Russia's financial problems – Putin, February 6th, http://en.rian.ru/russia/20100602/159273742.html)
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budget revenues due to higher oil prices will allow Russia to effectively deal with its main financial issues Putin said whereas the 2010 budget was based on a projected oil price of $58 per barrel the average price so far this year had in fact exceeded $70. We can make greater headway in solving our main financial problems Above all in reducing the budget deficit the country's Reserve Fund could be used more economically economic growth was also higher than forecast several months ago the budget would be balanced with an average oil price of $95 Russia was badly affected by the 2008 global economic crisis but a quicker-than-expected recovery of oil prices has eased pressure on the federal budget
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Those internal links are the main threat facing Russia.
| 1,454 | 56 | 705 | 251 | 9 | 120 | 0.035857 | 0.478088 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,097 |
Russia’s national poverty rate has been broadly flat in 2009 and continued to fall in 2010, essentially because of a massive counter-cyclical stimulus, increases in pensions and wages, and unemployment that was much lower than expected. Both the unemployment and poverty rates increased sharply in early 2009; however, as the large increases in public sector wages and pensions and unemployment benefi ts kicked in, and as unemployment began to fall as fi rms shifted to labor hoarding, the national poverty rate fell from 13.4 percent in 2008 to 13.2 percent by the end of 2009. According to Rosstat, poverty has continued to decline in the fi rst 3 quarters of 2010 in comparison to the similar period last year. Based on the 4 percent GDP growth in 2010, we estimate the poverty rate in 2010 at 12.7 percent, approximately 0.5 percentage point lower than in 2009 with about 0.7 million people moving out of poverty. Looking ahead, we project that poverty will decline in 2011 (11.2 percent) and 2012 (10.0 percent in 2012) (fi gure 1.6).
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Ulatov 11 (Sergei (Economist), Karlis Smits (Economist), Olga Emelyanova (Research Analyst), and Victor Sulla (Economist), under the direction of Zeljko Bogetic (Lead Economist and Country Sector Coordinator for economic policy for Russia and the general editor of the report). Lucio Vinhas da Souza (Senior Economist) and Shane Streifel (Consultant) contributed on the international environment and the global oil market. Karlis Smits (Economist) prepared the note on public expenditures. Sylvia Bossoutrot (Sr. Operations Offi cer and Country Coordinator for Private Sector and Finance for Russia) and Lawrence Kay (consultant), Sustaining Reforms under the Oil Windfall, Russian Economic Report, Number 24, March 2011)
|
Russia’s poverty rate has been broadly flat and continued to fall because of a massive counter-cyclical stimulus increases in pensions and wages and unemployment that was much lower than expected unemployment began to fall we estimate the poverty rate in 2010 at 12.7 percent Looking ahead we project that poverty will decline
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Social spending solves poverty- key to the overall economy
| 1,035 | 59 | 325 | 176 | 9 | 52 | 0.051136 | 0.295455 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,098 |
RT: On balance do you think high oil prices are good for Russia? Surely it means more money? VO: Sure, absolutely. One way or another high oil prices gives much more resources for Russia to deal with. That’s why, no matter what way you look at it, it is always better for Russia to have high oil prices than low oil prices. I guess the most important thing is to realize that the sustainability of these prices is the big question.
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Russian Times 11 (RT Online, Russia surfing the oil price surge, February 25th, http://rt.com/business/news/russia-surfing-oil-surge/)
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On balance do you think high oil prices are good for Russia it means more money absolutely One way or another high oil prices gives much more resources for Russia to deal with. That’s why no matter what way you look at it it is always better for Russia to have high oil prices than low oil prices
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No offense --- high prices are always better than low prices.
| 431 | 62 | 296 | 81 | 11 | 58 | 0.135802 | 0.716049 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
2,099 |
With higher crude price bringing the budget back into balance but also stoking inflation Business RT spoke with Steven Dashevsky, Managing Director of Dashevsky & Partners about oil and its relationship to the Russian economy. RT: High oil prices have helped Russia’s budget but is the country too dependent on energy exports? SD: “Well the dependence has declined greatly in recent years, but I think the sad truth remains that, to a very significant degree, Russia’s budget revenues and overall fiscal health is still very dependent on the level of oil prices.” RT: How does the energy sector shape the Russian investment climate? SD: “Well, there are many ways how the events happening in the oil and gas sector influence what is happening in the broader economy. On the one hand this is the biggest source of cash flow generation in the country, so in a sense it’s the biggest source of investment funds, both for the companies, and for the government and also because oil companies invest very significant amounts of money every year, so the ability of Russian oil companies to spend money affects really the entire Russian economy – from transport companies to oil service companies to catering companies to local airlines – so it is still, despite the significant efforts to diversify the economy, it’s a very important source of investment funds. That’s kind of one angle, and another angle is what is happening in the Russian oil and gas sector, since it is the biggest sector in the economy, affects the general investment climate, from the kind of sentiment perspective.So, when something good happens like potentially was going to happen, BP-Rosneft deal, or if there are good events happening, new fields are being developed, new pipelines are being brought on-stream, that gives investor additional confidence that the economy is progressing very well, and people are investing money in it, and the whole country is open for business.Vice versa, if things are not going well, if deals are breaking up, if instead of going to work people going to courts against each other, that clearly creates a big drag on the investors sentiment for all of the Russian economy, not just oil and gas.” RT: Are government moves to diversify the economy away from energy likely to succeed in the short term? And in the long term? SD: “It’s a trick question.Someone told me that the first time the Russian government has become concerned about its reliance on oil and gas revenue, was, in fact, almost immediately after oil and gas was found in Siberia, in 1973, 1974.One of the central communist party committees has discussed the subject. So that was 1974.Almost 40 years later I think we still find ourselves in the current situation where the economy and the budget are very, very, dependent on oil and gas. I personally don’t see how it is going to change. In the near term, and even in the long term, because even if the Russian oil production begins to decline, or the global oil production begins to decline, what will happen at that time would also mean high oil prices, so if global production will be getting lower, the oil price will be getting higher because of that. So, as a result, the Russian intake from commodity exports would more or less stay the same – it would be a big amount of money coming into the country. And there is very few other sources of hard currency the economy could generate. So it would take a miracle to materially change the structure of the Russian economy and of the Russian budget. Even the long term, so I think the only thing you can do is really simply take this natural wealth that has been given to you by god, and simply use it efficiently. I don’t think you can really say ‘let’s become a hi-tech nation, or lets become a tourist mecca, or lets become the provider of savoir vivre products like France. They are just not going to happen. You just take your natural resource wealth but you try to use that efficiently, and try not to waste it.” RT: What is the best way the government can diversify the economy and at the same time take advantage of the energy resources that it has? SD: “Well that’s a slightly different question.The answer to that is very simple.If you are endowed with significant natural resources, one way how you diversify your economy, if this is still the core of your economy, the core of your wealth, the way you diversify and the way you make the economy more diversified is by creating more value added.So I think the clear sort of strategic goal that the Russian government should pursue is increasing the degree of refining of, for example, for oil.So instead of selling simple vacuum gas oil, maybe fuel oil, which is subsequently being refined into high value added products in the west, you build these refining complexes here.Instead of burning associated gas, for example, you create petrochemical refining complexes which process it into various liquefied gas, and various associated petrochemical products, and you export that.So, I don’t think it is fair to say that, ok if you have a natural resource driven economy, you are in a bad situation. I mean Australia has a natural resource driven economy, and so does Canada, and so does Norway, but there are always ways, if you think about things to create value to make it more diversified, and the more you add value, the more added value is in the product you sell the less vulnerable you are to commodity price swings.Because commodity price swings affect, fir4st and foremost, the raw natural resources, and to a much lesser degree they affect the final product.So we all know how much the oil price changes every day, but the price per tonne of rubber or plastic or certain petrochemical specialized products doesn’t change that often.It’s subject to much more longer term contracts.And if you go from producing gas to also producing electricity, that doesn’t change daily, it’s not as volatile.So there are different ways, I think, how you can diversify the economy, and simply make Russia, instead of raw material exporter, into a high quality, high value added energy exporter. In different types of energy, and different types of resources, as your final product. And that I think is the only kind of reasonable diversification strategy.” RT Do you think Russia has Dutch disease and how does energy reliance work in Russia with the import competing sector? SD: “There are elements of Dutch disease, so I think not all the symptoms are here because the oil industry is not, Dutch disease happens when one industry, in this case oil and gas industry, really begins to crowd out investment and jobs and becomes the centre of everything, so the rest of the economy kind of dies. In the Russian case, it’s a little bit different because a lot of the money that flows into the country, via the oil and gas sector, subsequently flows further into the economy. So the impact from the oil and gas sector for example, on the currency is not what it used to be. So, yeah, if the oil prices are high it gets stronger, but it’s not dramatically stronger, and I think the economy is becoming, in relative terms, it is getting better if oil prices are high, instead of getting worse.Dutch disease really happens if there is one sector that is doing well and it drains resources from all the other sectors.In Russia’s case when oil prices are high, all sectors are enjoying it because it trickles down to the entire economy. So I think there are certain elements of it, but I don’t think Russia has Dutch disease, and whatever people say, fortunately if oil prices are high it is good for Russia, and it is good for Russia as a whole, not just for Russian oil companies.” RT: How open is the Russian energy sector to foreign investment?
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Dashevsky 11 (Steven, Managing Director of Dashevsky & Partners, The Russian economy and its oil, May 24th, http://rt.com/business/news/russia-economy-oil-rpice/print/)
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High oil prices have helped Russia’s budget to a very significant degree Russia’s budget revenues and overall fiscal health is very dependent on the level of oil prices. this is the biggest source of cash flow generation in the country it’s the biggest source of investment funds both for the companies and for the government and also because oil companies invest very significant amounts of money every year so the ability of Russian oil companies to spend money affects the entire Russian economy from transport companies to oil service companies to catering companies to local airlines so it is still a very important source of investment funds we still find ourselves in the current situation where the economy and the budget are very very dependent on oil I don’t see how it is going to change In the near term and even in the long term because even if the Russian oil production begins to decline what will happen at that time would also mean high oil prices so if global production will be getting lower, the oil price will be getting higher because of that it would take a miracle to materially change the structure of the Russian economy and of the Russian budget Even the long term I think the only thing you can do is really simply take this natural wealth that has been given to you by god and use it I don’t think you can really say ‘let’s become a hi-tech nation or lets become a tourist mecca They are just not going to happen You just take your natural resource wealth but you try to use that efficiently and try not to waste it I don’t think it is fair to say that if you have a natural resource driven economy you are in a bad situation Australia has a natural resource driven economy and so does Canada and so does Norway there are different ways how you can diversify the economy and simply make Russia instead of raw material exporter, into a high quality high value added energy exporter that is the only kind of reasonable diversification strategy Dutch disease happens when one industry really begins to crowd out investment and jobs and becomes the centre of everything so the rest of the economy dies In the Russian case it’s different because a lot of the money that flows into the country via the oil sector subsequently flows further into the economy the impact from the oil sector on the currency is not what it used to be it is better if oil prices are high In Russia’s case when oil prices are high all sectors are enjoying it because it trickles down to the entire economy I don’t think Russia has Dutch disease and whatever people say if oil prices are high it is good for Russia and it is good for Russia as a whole not just for Russian oil companies
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1. Oil dependence is inevitable and good.
| 7,765 | 42 | 2,685 | 1,347 | 7 | 490 | 0.005197 | 0.363771 |
Venezuela Negative - Emory 2013.html5
|
Emory (ENDI)
|
Case Negatives
|
2013
|
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