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Hugo Chavez’s hand-picked successor, former trade union boss Nicolás Maduro, appears to have defeated Governor Henrique Capriles by a narrow margin in a contentious and hard-fought special election on April 14. Venezuela is in such shambles after 14 years of seat-of-the-pants mismanagement that Maduro—assuming his victory is confirmed—may ultimately be forced to pursue more moderate policies and seek help from the U.S. to restore stability.
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Roberts and Daga 13 – [James Roberts, Research Fellow For Economic Freedom and Growth Center for International Trade and Economics (CITE), and Sergio Daga, director of research and a founding board member of Politicas Publicas para la Libertad and Visiting Senior Policy Analyst for CITE, “Venezuela: U.S. Should Push President Maduro Toward Economic Freedom” April 15 2013, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/04/venezuela-us-should-push-president-maduro-toward-economic-freedom, LZ]
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Venezuela is in such shambles that Maduro may ultimately be forced to pursue more moderate policies and seek help from the U.S. to restore stability.
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Text: The United States federal government should diplomatically pressure Venezuela to diversify its economy.
| 444 | 110 | 149 | 65 | 14 | 25 | 0.215385 | 0.384615 |
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Finally an old friend gets me an interview with his boss, Jorge Giordani, a former academic who befriended Chávez during the rebellious paratrooper’s stint in jail and is now the planning and development minister. On matters of economic development, Giordani is the revolution’s brain. We meet in his office near the top of South America’s tallest building, one of a pair of towers, the other of which stands half-burned, its gold-tinted, mirrored windows blown out and black, the result of a recent accident caused by bad maintenance.
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Nation 5 [The Nation is the oldest continuously published weekly magazine in the US and is devoted to politics and culture, April 11 2005, “Hugo Chávez and Petro Populism”, LZ]
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Giordani, a former academic who befriended Chávez is now the planning and development minister. On matters of economic development, Giordani is the revolution’s brain.
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Venezuela won’t expand its industries in time on its own – a US push is key
| 536 | 75 | 168 | 87 | 16 | 24 | 0.183908 | 0.275862 |
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As reported in the Index, political interference in Venezuela’s judicial system has become routine, and corruption is rampant. The landscape in Caracas and elsewhere in the country is littered with half-finished, publicly funded infrastructure and housing projects. The government funds needed to complete them often disappear. As government expanded under Chavez, corruption became institutionalized. Chavez doubled the size of the public sector, many of whose 2.4 million [7] employees have no real job other than to work to keep the regime in power. A World Economic Forum (WEF) survey found little trust among businesses, politicians, the judicial system, and the police in Venezuela. [8] The tragic result is that Venezuela is now one of the most dangerous countries of the world. According to the Venezuelan Violence Observatory, in 2012 nearly 22,000 people were murdered. [9] An inefficient and non-transparent regulatory environment that is hostile to private foreign direct investment obstructs long-term development and hampers entrepreneurial growth. The investment regime is tightly controlled by the state and favors investors from China, Russia, Iran, and other democracy-challenged countries. [10] Investor protection in Venezuela is ranked at 140 out of 144 countries, according to the WEF report.[11] In 1998, before Chavez took power, there were more than 14,000 private industrial companies in Venezuela; in 2011, after 13 years of extensive nationalizations and expropriations, only about 9,000 remained. [12]
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Roberts and Daga 13 [James Roberts, Research Fellow For Economic Freedom and Growth Center for International Trade and Economics (CITE), and Sergio Daga, director of research and a founding board member of Politicas Publicas para la Libertad and Visiting Senior Policy Analyst for CITE, “Venezuela: U.S. Should Push President Maduro Toward Economic Freedom” April 15 2013, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/04/venezuela-us-should-push-president-maduro-toward-economic-freedom]
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political interference in Venezuela’s judicial system has become routine, and corruption is rampant. As government expanded under Chavez, corruption became institutionalized. [7] employees have no real job other than to work to keep the regime in power. WEF survey found little trust among businesses, politicians, the judicial system, and the police in Venezuela [8] Venezuela is now one of the most dangerous countries of the world. According to the Venezuelan Violence Observatory, in 2012 nearly 22,000 people were murdered [9] An inefficient and non-transparent regulatory environment that is hostile to private foreign direct investment obstructs long-term development and hampers entrepreneurial growth. [10] Investor protection in Venezuela is ranked at 140 out of 144 countries, according to the WEF report.[11] [12]
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Corruption causes high crime rates and ruins the economy
| 1,530 | 56 | 825 | 225 | 9 | 120 | 0.04 | 0.533333 |
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NF: Decriminalization is a step in the right direction because it prevents people from the shackling of criminal records for simply possessing marijuana and also allows the criminal justice system to focus more of its limited resources on stopping and solving violent crimes. However, it does nothing to reduce the violent underground drug trade. Only legalized regulation of the market can do that. Let’s remember that during alcohol prohibition, personal possession and use of booze was essentially decriminalized. It wasn’t until the prohibition on manufacture and sales was lifted that gangsters stopped killing each other and the police over black market alcohol profits. This is because legalizing and regulating a product means people will purchase it through the proper channels and therefore the lucrative illegal market all but disappears.¶ MT: Simply removing the criminal penalties for marijuana does nothing to eliminate the underground market, which produces the only real violence associated with marijuana. By keeping marijuana illegal, we are forcing those who seek it into an underground market where it is sold exclusively by individuals who are willing to break the law. Naturally, some of these individuals will have other illegal products available, including drugs that are far more harmful than marijuana. Amendment 64 would regulate marijuana and restrict its sale to licensed stores, as we currently do with alcohol. In doing so, it will dramatically reduce consumers’ exposure to harder drugs and the temptation to experiment with them. Regulating marijuana will also ensure that consumers know what they are getting when they purchase marijuana. Illegal marijuana dealers are not subject to quality standards, and are not testing or labeling their products.
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Sarachan 12(Sydney Sarachan, PBS, November 19 2012, Legalizing marijuana, http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/ask-the-experts/ask-the-experts-legalizing-marijuana/15474/,PS)
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Decriminalization is a step in the right direction However, it does nothing to reduce the violent underground drug trade. Only legalized regulation of the market can do that. during alcohol prohibition, personal possession and use of booze was essentially decriminalized. It wasn’t until the prohibition on manufacture and sales was lifted that gangsters stopped killing each other and the police over black market alcohol profits By keeping marijuana illegal, we are forcing those who seek it into an underground market where it is sold exclusively by individuals who are willing to break the law. some of these individuals will have other illegal products available, including drugs that are far more harmful than marijuana. Regulating marijuana will also ensure that consumers know what they are getting when they purchase marijuana. Illegal marijuana dealers are not subject to quality standards, and are not testing or labeling their products.
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Decriminalization now but that doesn’t stop the violence- only legalization solves
| 1,785 | 82 | 948 | 272 | 11 | 146 | 0.040441 | 0.536765 |
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On the other hand, the obstacles to cooperation that emerged after the 9/11 attacks generally remain in place, and in some respects are even more daunting than before. The prospects for a large-scale legalization or a new temporary worker program — core elements of the “whole enchilada” framework — are more doubtful in light of the weak US economy and Republican gains in the 2010 congressional elections. And while US and Mexican officials see their campaign against Mexican drug-trafficking organizations as an important example of bilateral cooperation, continued high levels of drug-related violence, concentrated in Mexican border cities and in important migrant-sending states such as Michoacán, threaten to overwhelm other aspects of the bilateral relationship. The drug war in Mexico undermines US trust in Mexico’s ability to be a reliable partner for migration cooperation, and causes many Mexicans to question whether the United States is willing to take on the costs of reform at home, including by reducing demand for drugs and the supply of weapons fueling Mexican violence ¶ With these constraints in mind, episodic cooperation during World War II and the 1990s suggests three principles for successful migration cooperation. First, cooperative institutions should respond to market failures by promoting policy outcomes that benefit both countries and the recognition that neither the market nor the unilateral policies of either country can bring this about on their own. Cooperation is not an end in itself, but may be a means to accomplish concrete policy goals that depend on coordination or joint enforcement. Second, cooperative policy approaches may become easier when the United States and Mexico find linkages across related issue areas. During the early stages of the Bracero Program, for example, Mexico made concessions on visa numbers in exchange for a greater say in how guestworker visas were enforced; collaboration at this time and during the 1990s was also based on the recognition that the United States and Mexico have broader common interests, and fundamentally linked fates. Third, building collaborative mechanisms may also require an incremental approach. In the 1990s, border-level cooperation on enforcement and human rights emerged out of long-term investments in bilateral forums for discussing migration issues and became stepping stones for building mutual trust through which a comprehensive immigration reform framework began to emerge.
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Rosenblum 11(Marc R. Rosenblum, Senior Policy Analyst at the Migration Policy Institute (MPI),¶ where he works on the Labor Markets Initiative, April 2011, pg 17, US immigration policy, and Mexico-US¶ migration issues, http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/usmexico-cooperation.pdf,PS)
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while US and Mexican officials see their campaign against Mexican drug-trafficking organizations as an important example of bilateral cooperation, continued high levels of drug-related violence, concentrated in Mexican border cities states such as Michoacán, threaten to overwhelm other aspects of the bilateral relationship. The drug war in Mexico undermines US trust in Mexico’s ability to be a reliable partner for migration cooperation, and causes many Mexicans to question whether the United States is willing to take on the costs of reform at home, including by reducing demand for drugs and the supply of weapons fueling Mexican violence
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Drug war undermines US-Mexico relations- only the CP can solve that
| 2,486 | 67 | 644 | 377 | 11 | 97 | 0.029178 | 0.257294 |
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Mexican drug cartels make at least 60 percent of their revenue from selling marijuana in the United States, according to the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy. The FBI estimates that the cartels now control distribution in more than 230 American cities, from the Southwest to New England.¶ How are they able to do this? Because America's policy for nearly 70 years has been to keep marijuana -- arguably no more harmful than alcohol and used by 15 million Americans every month -- confined to the illicit market, meaning we've given criminals a virtual monopoly on something that U.S. researcher Jon Gettman estimates is a $36 billion a year industry, greater than corn and wheat combined. We have implemented laws that are not enforceable, which has thereby created a thriving black market. By denying reality and not regulating and taxing marijuana, we are fueling not only this massive illicit economy, but a war that we are clearly losing.¶ In 2006, Mexican President Felipe Calderon announced a new military offensive against his country's drug cartels. Since then, more than 28,000 people have been killed in prohibition-fueled violence, and the cartels are more powerful than ever, financed primarily by marijuana sales. Realizing that his hard-line approach has not worked, earlier this month Calderon said the time has come for Mexico to have an open debate about regulating drugs as a way to combat the cartels. Ignoring this problem, Mr. Calderon said, "is an unacceptable option."¶ Calderon's predecessor, Vicente Fox, went even further, writing on his blog that "we should consider legalizing the production, sale and distribution of drugs" as a way to "weaken and break the economic system that allows cartels to earn huge profits... Radical prohibition strategies have never worked."¶ Fox is not alone. His predecessor, as well as former presidents of Brazil and Colombia, has also spoken out for the need to end prohibition.¶ And they're right. Crime was rampant during alcohol prohibition as well. Back then it was led by gangsters like Al Capone. Now it's lead by cartels.¶ The violence in Mexico is out of control and is destroying the country. Journalists fear reporting the daily shootouts because of threats from the cartels. Some schools are even teaching their students to duck and cover in order to avoid the crossfire. Politicians are being targeted for assassination.¶ The havoc has spread into the United States. In March, hit men executed three people linked to the U.S. Consulate in Juarez, an act that President Obama condemned. And the same cartels that are selling marijuana in the United States are destroying treasured environmental resources by growing marijuana illegally in protected park lands. By regulating marijuana, such illegal grows would cease to exist. The problem has been out of hand for quite some time, and a new approach is desperately needed.¶ Sadly, U.S. officials refuse to even acknowledge that such a debate is taking place. Drug Czar Gil Kerlikowske has said repeatedly that the Obama administration is not open to a debate on ending marijuana prohibition. Even worse, we've continued to fund Mexico's horribly failed drug war (to the tune of $1.4 billion through the Merida Initiative), while refusing to be honest with our neighbors who are urgently seeking a new direction.¶ This November, Californians will decide whether to legalize marijuana for adults 21 and older. U.S. officials need to welcome the debate on marijuana regulation. It's probably the only practical way to weaken the drug cartels -- something both the U.S. and Mexico would benefit from immeasurably. We need a new solution to stop this violence.¶
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Johnson 10(Gary Johnson, Former governor of New Mexico, Huffington Post Politics, August 26 2010, Legalize Marijuana to Stop the Drug Cartels, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gary-johnson/legalize-marijuana-to-sto_b_696430.html,PS)
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Mexican drug cartels make at least 60 percent of their revenue from selling marijuana in the United States, meaning we've given criminals a virtual monopoly on something that estimates is a $36 billion a year industry, than corn and wheat combined. By denying reality and not regulating and taxing marijuana, we are fueling not only this massive illicit economy, but a war that we are clearly losing.¶ the cartels are more powerful than ever, financed primarily by marijuana sales. hard-line approach has not worked the time has come for Mexico to have an open debate about regulating drugs as a way to combat the cartels we should consider legalizing the production, sale and distribution of drugs" as a way to "weaken and break the economic system that allows cartels to earn huge profits Crime was rampant during alcohol prohibition as well. The violence in Mexico is out of control and is destroying the country . It's probably the only practical way to weaken the drug cartels -- something both the U.S. and Mexico would benefit from immeasurably. We need a new solution to stop this violence.¶
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CP solves- legalization of marijuana is the only practical way to weaken the Mexican drug cartels
| 3,696 | 97 | 1,099 | 597 | 16 | 186 | 0.026801 | 0.311558 |
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MEXICO CITY -- This may not weigh heavily on the minds of voters in Seattle, but if Washington and two other U.S. states decide to legalize marijuana in next week's election, the effect on drug traffickers in Mexico could be enormous.¶ Such is the suggestion of a new study by a Mexican think tank.¶ "It could be the biggest structural blow that [Mexican] drug trafficking has experienced in a generation," Alejandro Hope, security expert with the Mexican Competitiveness Institute, said in presenting the report.¶ Producing and distributing marijuana inside the U.S. would supply a less expensive and better quality drug to the millions of American who smoke it, Hope said. Demand for Mexican pot would decline, cutting into cartels' profits by 22% to 30%, the study calculates.¶ The consequences would be most dramatic, Hope added, for the powerful Sinaloa Cartel, which is based in western Mexico and controls most of the marijuana production.¶ It is estimated that around one-third of Mexican drug gangs' income is from marijuana, surpassed only and narrowly by cocaine.¶ Washington, Oregon and Colorado have legalization initiatives on their ballots. Hope cited polls that showed likely approval for the measure in Washington and Colorado and defeat in Oregon.¶ Taking into account taxes, markups, transportation costs and other factors, U.S.-produced marijuana would retail at a little more than half the cost of illegally shipped Mexican pot, Hope's study indicated.¶ However, he acknowledged that legalization in one or more U.S. states would create an illicit contraband of the drug to other states -- precisely one of the main arguments used by opponents of the ballot measures.¶ One unpredictable fallout is how the cartels would react. Would the thousands of people employed in marijuana production turn to other illegal -- and possibly more violent -- activities like kidnapping and extortion?¶ Also, Hope said, the study does not consider what will happen in the likely event that the U.S. federal government acts to impede or challenge legalization measures approved by state voters.¶ But any legalization in the U.S. is an exciting prospect, he said, because it would probably cut illegal production in Mexico and change the debate over drug use worldwide.
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Wilkinson 12(Tracy Wilkinson, LA Times, November 1 2012, Study: Pot legalization in U.S. states could hurt Mexican cartels, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/11/pot-legalization-in-us-states-could-hurt-mexicos-cartels-study-suggests.html,PS)
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legalize marijuana could be the biggest structural blow that [Mexican] drug trafficking has experienced in a generation Producing and distributing marijuana inside the U.S. would supply a less expensive and better quality drug to the millions of American who smoke it Demand for Mexican pot would decline, The consequences would be most dramatic, around one-third of Mexican drug gangs' income is from marijuan U.S.-produced marijuana would retail at a little more than half the cost of illegally shipped Mexican pot, legalization in one or more U.S. states would create an illicit contraband of the drug to other states any legalization in the U.S. is an exciting prospect because it would probably cut illegal production in Mexico and change the debate over drug use worldwide
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Only federal legalization solves
| 2,272 | 32 | 778 | 360 | 4 | 124 | 0.011111 | 0.344444 |
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Growing numbers of Mexican and U.S. officials say—at least privately—that the biggest step in hurting the business operations of Mexican cartels would be simply to legalize their main product: marijuana. Long the world's most popular illegal drug, marijuana accounts for more than half the revenues of Mexican cartels.¶ "Economically, there is no argument or solution other than legalization, at least of marijuana," said the top Mexican official matter-of-factly. The official said such a move would likely shift marijuana production entirely to places like California, where the drug can be grown more efficiently and closer to consumers. "Mexico's objective should be to make the U.S. self-sufficient in marijuana," he added with a grin.¶ He is not alone in his views. Earlier this year, three former Latin American presidents known for their free-market and conservative credentials—Ernesto Zedillo of Mexico, Cesar Gaviria of Colombia and Fernando Henrique Cardoso of Brazil—said governments should seriously consider legalizing marijuana as an effective tool against murderous drug gangs.¶ If the war on drugs has failed, analysts say it is partly because it has been waged almost entirely as a la w-and-order issue, without understanding of how cartels work as a business.¶ For instance, U.S. anti-drug policy inadvertently helped Mexican gangs gain power. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the U.S. government cracked down on the transport of cocaine from Colombia to U.S. shores through the Caribbean, the lowest-cost supply route. But that simply diverted the flow to the next lowest-cost route: through Mexico. In 1991, 50% of the U.S.-bound cocaine came through Mexico. By 2004, 90% did. Mexico became the FedEx of the cocaine business.¶ That change in the supply chain came as Colombia waged a successful war to break up the country's Cali and Medellin cartels into dozens of smaller suppliers. Both moves helped the Mexican gangs, who gained pricing power in the market. Before, the Colombian cartels told Mexicans what price they would pay for wholesale cocaine. Now, Mexican gangs play smaller Colombian suppliers off of each other to get the best price. Mexican gangs are "price setters" instead of "price takers."¶ Some Mexican officials say privately that the U.S. should seriously consider allowing cocaine to pass more easily through the Caribbean again in order to squeeze Mexican gangs. "Would you rather destabilize small countries in the Caribbean or Mexico, which shares a 2,000-mile border with the U.S., is your third-biggest trading partner and has 100 million people?" one official said.¶ Today, the world's most successful drug trafficking organizations are found in Mexico. Unlike Colombian drug gangs in the 1980s, who relied almost entirely on cocaine, Mexican drug gangs are a one-stop shop for four big-time illicit drugs: marijuana, cocaine, methamphetamines and heroin. Mexico is the world's second biggest producer of marijuana (the U.S. is No. 1), the major supplier of methamphetamines to the U.S., the key transit point for U.S.-bound cocaine from South America and the hemisphere's biggest producer of heroin.¶ This diversification helps them absorb shocks from the business. Sales of cocaine in the U.S., for instance, slipped slightly from 2006 to 2008. But that decline was more than made up for by growing sales of methamphetamines.¶ In many ways, illegal drugs are the most successful Mexican multinational enterprise, employing some 450,000 Mexicans and generating about $20 billion in sales, second only behind the country's oil industry and automotive industry exports. This year, Forbes magazine put Mexican drug lord Joaquin "Shorty" Guzman as No. 701 on the world's list of billionaires.¶ Unlike their rough-hewn parents and uncles, today's young traffickers wear Armani suits, carry BlackBerrys and hit the gym for exercise. One drug lord's accountant who was arrested in 2006 had a mid-level job at Mexico's central bank for 15 years.¶ Recently, Mexico's deputy agriculture minister, Jeffrey Jones, told some of the country's leading farmers that they could learn a thing or two from Mexican drug traffickers. "It's a sector that has learned to identify markets and create the logistics to reach them," he said. Days later, Mr. Jones was forced to resign. "He may be right," one top Mexican official confided, "but you can't say things like that publicly."¶ Mr. Jones says he stands by his comments.¶ Because governments make drugs illegal, the risk associated with transporting them translates to high rewards for those willing to take that risk. The wholesale price of a single kilo of cocaine, for instance, costs $1,200 in Colombia, $2,300 in Panama, $8,300 in Mexico, and between $15,000 and $25,000 in the U.S., depending on how close you are to the Mexican border. At a retail level on the streets of New York, it can run close to $80,000. With markups like that, the business is bound to keep attracting new entrants, no matter what governments do to stop it.¶ Governments also have a hard time stopping the drugs trade because, like any good business, trafficking organizations innovate and adapt. Mexican customs has stumbled upon a long list of ingenious methods to transport cocaine, including one shipment of liquefied cocaine smuggled in red wine bottles. Another recent bust yielded 800 kilos of cocaine—worth an estimated $40 million—stuffed inside a batch of frozen sharks.¶ After Mexico restricted the importation of pseudoephedrine to slow the manufacture of methamphetamines, drug gangs found another way to make the drug using different, unrestricted chemicals widely used in the perfume industry. "I've always thought these guys had a good research and development arm," says one exasperated Mexican official.¶ Advocates for drug legalization say making marijuana legal would cut the economic clout of Mexican cartels by half. Marijuana accounts for anywhere between 50% to 65% of Mexican cartel revenues, say Mexican and U.S. officials. While cocaine has higher profit margins, marijuana is a steady source of income that allows cartels to meet payroll and fund other activities.¶ Marijuana is also less risky to a drug gang's balance sheet. If a cocaine shipment is seized, the Mexican gang has to write off the expected profits from the shipment and the cost of paying Colombian suppliers, meaning they lose twice. But because gangs here grow their own marijuana, it's easier to absorb the losses from a seizure. Cartels also own the land where the marijuana is grown, meaning they can cheaply grow more supply rather than have to fork over more money to the Colombians for the next shipment of cocaine.¶ Several U.S. states like California and Oregon have decriminalized marijuana, making possession of small quantities a misdemeanor, like a parking ticket. Decriminalization falls short of legalization because the sale and distribution remain a serious felony. One of the big reasons for the move is to reduce the problem of overcrowded and costly prisons.¶ While this strategy may make sense domestically for the U.S., Mexican officials say it is the worst possible outcome for Mexico, because it guarantees demand for the drug by eliminating the risk that if you buy you go to jail. But it keeps the supply chain illegal, ensuring that organized crime will be the drug's supplier.¶ Making pot legal might actually increase violence south of the border even more in the short term, with drug gangs fighting over a smaller economic pie of the remaining illegal drugs. But it would eventually reduce the overall financial clout of cartels.
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Luhnow 9(David Luhnow, The Wall Street Journal, December 26 2009, Saving Mexico, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704254604574614230731506644.html,PS)
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the biggest step in hurting the business operations of Mexican cartels would be simply to legalize their main product: marijuana marijuana accounts for more than half the revenues of Mexican cartels.¶ "Economically, there is no argument or solution other than legalization, at least of marijuana," said the top Mexican official such a move would likely shift marijuana production entirely to places like California, where the drug can be grown more efficiently and closer to consumers Mexico's objective should be to make the U.S. self-sufficient in marijuana," If the war on drugs has failed, analysts say it is partly because it has been waged almost entirely as a la w-and-order issue, without understanding of how cartels work as a business.¶ For instance, U.S. anti-drug policy inadvertently helped Mexican gangs gain power illegal drugs are the most successful Mexican multinational enterprise, today's young traffickers wear Armani suits, carry BlackBerrys and hit the gym for exercise. "It's a sector that has learned to identify markets and create the logistics to reach them," Because governments make drugs illegal, the risk associated with transporting them translates to high rewards for those willing to take that risk making marijuana legal would cut the economic clout of Mexican cartels by half. marijuana is a steady source of income that allows cartels to meet payroll and fund other activities. Marijuana is also less risky to a drug gang's balance sheet Cartels also own the land where the marijuana is grown, meaning they can cheaply grow more supply
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CP is the only economical solution to the war on drugs
| 7,623 | 54 | 1,572 | 1,207 | 11 | 249 | 0.009114 | 0.206297 |
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AMERICAN elections are watched closely in Mexico, which sends most of its exports and about a tenth of its citizens north of the border. But Tuesday’s presidential contest is not the only poll that’s sparking interest south of the Rio Grande. On the same day, voters in Colorado, Oregon and Washington will vote on whether to legalise marijuana—not just for medical use, but for fun and profit. Polls suggest that the initiatives have a decent chance of passing in Washington and Colorado (Oregon is a longer shot).¶ The impact on Mexico could be profound. Between 40% and 70% of American pot is reckoned to be grown in Mexico. According to a recent study (in Spanish) by the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO), a think-tank in Mexico City, the American marijuana business brings in about $2 billion a year to Mexico’s drug traffickers. That makes it almost as important to their business as the cocaine trade, which is worth about $2.4 billion.¶ In Mexico relatively few people take drugs. But many are murdered as a result of the export business. About 60,000 have been killed by organised crime during the past six years. Thousands more have disappeared. Many Mexicans therefore wonder if America might consider a new approach. Felipe Calderon, the president, has said that if Americans cannot bring themselves to stop buying drugs, they ought to consider “market alternatives”, by which he means legalisation. Vicente Fox and Ernesto Zedillo, the two previous presidents of Mexico, have reached the same conclusion.¶ What would happen if Colorado, Oregon or Washington were to vote for such a “market alternative” on Tuesday? None of those states is a very big drug market in itself. But if it were legal to grow pot in, say, Washington, it’s not hard to imagine that a certain amount of it would illegally leak out into neighbouring states. Would Mexico’s bandits find themselves undercut by “El Cártel de Seattle”?¶ IMCO reckons they could be. It calculates that the cost of growing marijuana legally is about $880 per kilo. Adding on a decent mark-up, plus the taxes that would be applied, it puts the wholesale price of Washington marijuana at just over $2,000 per kilo. The cost of illegally transporting the drug adds about $500 per kilo for every thousand kilometres that the drug is hauled, it calculates, based on the fact that pot gets pricier the further you get from the Mexican border. So smuggling legal Washington dope to New York, for instance, would add about $1,900 to the cost of a kilo, giving a total wholesale price not much below $4,000.¶ That would make it more expensive than imported Mexican pot. But home-grown marijuana is much better quality than the Mexican sort. The content of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), the part that gives you the giggles, is between 10% and 18%, whereas in Mexican pot it is only about 4% to 6%. Once you adjust for quality, Washington pot would be about half the price of the Mexican stuff, even after it had made its expensive illegal journey to New York. IMCO reckons that home-grown marijuana from Colorado, Oregon or Washington would be cheaper than the Mexican stuff virtually everywhere in the country, with the exception of a few border states where the Mexican variety would still come in a bit cheaper.¶ As a result, it estimates that Mexico’s traffickers would lose about $1.4 billion of their $2 billion revenues from marijuana. The effect on some groups would be severe: the Sinaloa “cartel” would lose up to half its total income, IMCO reckons. Exports of other drugs, from cocaine to methamphetamine, would become less competitive, as the traffickers’ fixed costs (from torturing rivals to bribing American and Mexican border officials) would remain unchanged, even as marijuana revenues fell.¶ Legalisation could, in short, deal a blow to Mexico’s traffickers of a magnitude that no current policy has got close to achieving. The stoned and sober alike should bear that in mind when they cast their votes on Tuesday.
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T.W. 12(T.W. , The Economist, November 2nd 2012, The view from Mexico, http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/11/legalising-marijuana,PS)
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The impact on Mexico could be profound. Between 40% and 70% of American pot is reckoned to be grown in Mexico , the American marijuana business brings in about $2 billion a year to Mexico’s drug traffickers if Americans cannot bring themselves to stop buying drugs, they ought to consider “market alternatives”, by which he means legalisation. if Colorado, Oregon or Washington were to vote for such a “market alternative” None of those states is a very big drug market in itself. home-grown marijuana from Colorado, Oregon or Washington would be cheaper than the Mexican stuff virtually everywhere in the country, , it estimates that Mexico’s traffickers would lose about $1.4 billion of their $2 billion revenues from marijuana. Legalisation could, in short, deal a blow to Mexico’s traffickers of a magnitude that no current policy has got close to achieving
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Legalizing marijuana in only 3 states would take billions out of the cartels’ revenue
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Paul Armentano: U.S. drug policy drives international drug policy and not vice-versa. In fact, Mexican lawmakers are ready to pursue alternative approaches to drug prohibition. Former Mexican President Vincente Fox has publicly called the global drug war an ‘absolute failure’ and has called for replacing criminal prohibition with regulatory alternatives — both in Mexico and in the United States. In 2009, Mexico’s Congress approved legislation decriminalizing the possession of personal use of illicit substances, including cannabis. Mexico’s ambassador to the United States, Arturo Sarukhan, has said that legalizing the marijuana trade is a legitimate option for both the Mexican and U.S. governments. President Felipe Calderon has publically called for ‘market alternatives’ to address the growing level drug prohibition-inspired violence in Mexico and along the U.S. southern border. Just this week, a Mexican lawmaker announced intentions to introduce legislation to legalize the production, sale and consumption of cannabis.¶ Mexican officials understand that the U.S. demand for cannabis, combined with its illegality, is fueling violence and empowering criminal traffickers. Mexico today has a growing body count ( anywhere between 50,000 to 100,000 dead citizens) to attest to this. Yet our own DEA administrator, Michelle Leonhart, has publicly described this bloodshed as “a signpost of success.” Hardly. It is a tragic yet predictable failure of U.S. drug policy. When the U.S. finally begins to address the failure of this policy and embrace alternatives, much of the world, particularly Mexico, will no doubt follow suit.¶ Neill Franklin: Bringing marijuana aboveground and out of the illegal market can only improve security in our communities both here in the U.S. and in Mexico. As long as marijuana is prohibited, 100% of its profits (and all the decisions about where, how and to whom it is sold) are controlled by gangs and drug cartels. It is clear that Mexican leaders have been waiting for the U.S. to move away from prohibition for some time now. More than 60,000 people have died there over the past six years because drugs are sold only in the illegal, unregulated market.¶ Outgoing President Felipe Calderon has talked about the need for “market alternatives” if a prohibition approach continues to be unsuccessful in reducing demand for drugs. Mexican ambassador to the U.S. Arturo Sarukhan has said that those who are pushing for legalization “understand the dynamics of the drug trade.” Former President Vicente Fox has repeatedly said it is time for legalization, and incoming President Enrique Pena Nieto has said he’s open to considering legalization as a way forward. Now that two U.S. states have voted to legalize marijuana, expect to see more sitting officials talking about the need for policy change even more clearly and frequently. The U.S. can’t credibly bully other countries into maintaining a prohibitionist approach while states within its own borders are recognizing the senselessness of this approach and embracing legalization.¶ Mason Tvert: Marijuana prohibition in the U.S. is steering profits from marijuana sales toward cartels and gangs instead of legitimate, tax-paying businesses. In doing so, it is propping up these criminal enterprises and subsidizing their other illegal activities, including human trafficking, kidnapping, extortion, and the sale of other drugs. Much of the violence escalating on the Mexican border revolves around the actions of Mexican drug cartels who fight over profits from marijuana sales. Whether they are large-scale drug cartels or small-town street gangs, the vast supply and demand surrounding marijuana will ensure they have a constant stream of profits to subsidize other illegal activities. Regulating marijuana like alcohol would eliminate this income source and, in turn, eliminate the violence and turf battles associated with the illegal marijuana market.¶ Millions of Americans use marijuana. They should be able to do so without being made criminals and without supporting violent criminals.
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Sarachan 12(Sydney Sarachan, PBS, November 19 2012, Legalizing marijuana, http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/ask-the-experts/ask-the-experts-legalizing-marijuana/15474/,PS)
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Mexican lawmakers are ready to pursue alternative approaches to drug prohibition When the U.S. finally begins to address the failure of this policy and embrace alternatives, much of the world, particularly Mexico, will no doubt follow suit.¶ Bringing marijuana aboveground and out of the illegal market can only improve security in our communities both here in the U.S. and in Mexico. As long as marijuana is prohibited, 100% of its profits are controlled by gangs and drug cartels. Mexican leaders have been waiting for the U.S. to move away from prohibition Mexican ambassador said that those who are pushing for legalization “understand the dynamics of the drug trade.” Former President Vicente Fox has repeatedly said it is time for legalization Marijuana prohibition in the U.S. is steering profits from marijuana sales toward cartels and gangs instead of legitimate, tax-paying businesses. it is propping up these criminal enterprises and subsidizing their other illegal activities Regulating marijuana like alcohol would eliminate this income source and, in turn, eliminate the violence and turf battles associated with the illegal marijuana market.¶ Millions of Americans use marijuana. They should be able to do so without being made criminals and without supporting violent criminals.
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Prohibition will only fuel the cartels- only legalizing marijuana and leads other countries to follow suit
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Vicente Fox, the former president of Mexico, was one of the earliest and most prominent voices in favor of legalizing marijuana here. Now he says he would also become a grower.¶ Fox, who is known for provocative statements, argues that legalizing and regulating marijuana production would deprive violent drug traffickers of their profits. And then legitimate growers would naturally take over production, he says.¶ “I am a farmer,” Fox told reporters this week at his Fox Center in central Mexico’s Guanajuato state. “Once marijuana is legitimate and legal, I can do it.” ¶ The millions of dollars that marijuana production generates should be going to business entrepreneurs and the Mexican tax base, the former president added, and not to the likes of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, head of the Sinaloa cartel and one of the world’s top fugitive drug lords.¶ “Marijuana with adequate controls and with legalization can perfectly well be an operating, legal industry [in Mexico] that would take millions of dollars away from the criminals,” said Fox, who was president from 2000 to 2006 for the conservative National Action Party.¶ At least three years ago, Fox became one of a number of former Latin American leaders to advocate some form of decriminalization of marijuana and possibly other drugs -- a position adamantly opposed by the U.S. government.¶ His latest statements, which were carried in the Mexican media Thursday, came as the Organization of American States debated at its annual general assembly alternative approaches to a drug war that many member nations feel has become too violent with little progress.¶ Several countries were advocating a shift in emphasis to public health measures rather than jailing and police action. The meeting in Antigua, Guatemala, winds up Thursday, but it was not clear there would be consensus on final recommendations regarding drug policies.
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Wilkinson 6-6(Tracy Wilkinson, LA Times, June 6 2013, Mexico's Vicente Fox says he would grow marijuana if legalized, http://www.latimes.com/news/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-mexico-vicente-fox-marijuana-20130606,0,1969366.story,PS)
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Fox, the former president of Mexico he says he would also become a grower I am a farmer Once marijuana is legitimate and legal, I can do it.” The millions of dollars that marijuana production generates should be going to business entrepreneurs and the Mexican tax base Marijuana with adequate controls and with legalization can perfectly well be an operating, legal industry that would take millions of dollars away from the criminals
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Mexico would be able to run a marijuana industry
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3. Security and the drug war¶ The situation:¶ The battle against drug cartels has played a dominant role in U.S.-Mexican relations in recent years. Officials on both sides of the border have said that drugs traveling north from Mexico to consumers in the United States and weapons traveling south from the United States to cartels in Mexico are an increasingly deadly combination.¶ High-profile cartel takedowns were a hallmark of former President Felipe Calderon's tenure. Peña Nieto has vowed to take a different approach, focusing more on education problems and social inequality that he says fuel drug violence. The details of his policies are still coming into focus, and analysts say his government has deliberately tried to shift drug violence out of the spotlight.¶ Critics have expressed concerns that Peña Nieto's government will turn a blind eye to cartels or negotiate with them -- something he repeatedly denied on the campaign trail last year. On Tuesday -- two days before Obama's arrival -- his government arrested the father-in-law of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, head of Mexico's Sinaloa cartel and one of the country's most-wanted drug lords.¶ While both Obama and Peña Nieto have said they're committed to working together on security issues, it's unclear whether the U.S. role will change as Mexico's government shifts its strategy.¶
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Shoichet and Rodriguez 5-1(Catherine E. Shoichet and Cindy Y. Rodriguez, CNN News, May 1 2013, Key issues on Obama's Mexico trip: Trade, immigration and drug war, http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/01/world/americas/mexico-obama-visit,PS)
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The battle against drug cartels has played a dominant role in U.S.-Mexican relations in recent years. Peña Nieto policies are still coming into focus, and analysts say his government has deliberately tried to shift drug violence out of the spotlight.¶ While both Obama and Peña Nieto have said they're committed to working together on security issues, it's unclear whether the U.S. role will change as Mexico's government shifts its strategy.¶
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War on drugs is the main source of US-Mexico relations
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Finally, the goal should be to achieve permanent economic growth that manages to alleviate a problem that Mexico shares with other countries of Latin America: poverty and social inequality. Forty-two percent of Mexico’s population lives in poverty, and the country’s wealth is concentrated in just 10% of its population. In this sense, Peña Nieto has also turned toward Brazil in search of solutions. He has talked with that country’s officials about its successes, with the goal of emulating the significant movement of its population into the middle class in recent years.¶ Another area that Peña Nieto will focus on is the problem of violence and insecurity. In 2006 President Felipe Calderón declared war on the drug trafficking cartels, and the ensuing conflict has resulted in prolonged violence. The effort has left 55,000 people dead, and thousands of people have disappeared or have been uprooted from their homes. Malamud notes that the subject of violence has strong social connotations. “Mexican society is sick and tired of this, and it needs answers, but there are obviously no short cuts or easy solutions to a subject this complicated and controversial.”¶ Many Mexicans wonder if this war is useless because no one is winning and so many people are dying. Yet Garland notes that, based on the declarations made by Peña Nieto, “it seems that he is going to continue the policy” [of Calderón]. Recently, Peña Nieto declared that “the war against crime is going to continue with a new strategy to reduce the violence and to protect, above all, the lives of Mexicans. It must be made very clear that there will be no agreement or truce with organized crime.”¶ Experts note that the United States is going to play a key role in this war. Without the U.S., Mexican authorities have a much more limited scope of action, especially taking into account that the main market for the drugs that the Mexican cartels manage is in the United States, and a large part of the arms that they provide also come from the U.S. For many cartels, the U.S. also functions as an area to which they can retreat when pressured by attacks from the Mexican military. Malamud notes, “The U.S. has to have a much more active attitude” when it comes to fighting drug trafficking.¶ According to Nichols, Mexico desperately needs the U.S. to rationalize its drug policy, because the appetite for Mexican drugs is destroying Mexico. “The criminalization of drugs patently hasn’t worked,” says Nichols, adding that while the U.S. has coordinated policy with countries like Colombia and Peru, it has yet to do the same with Mexico.¶ Nichols suggests that Peña Nieto’s first two priorities “should be to work with the U.S. on a clear drug policy, and to inculcate a culture in which the entire country is united in standing up to the violence.”
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UPenn 12(Wharton University, July 11 2012, Who Is Enrique Peña Nieto, and How Will He Govern Mexico?, http://www.wharton.universia.net/index.cfm?fa=viewfeature&id=2232&language=english,PS)
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Peña Nieto will focus on the problem of violence and insecurity Calderón declared war on the drug trafficking cartels, and the ensuing conflict has resulted in prolonged violence. “Mexican society is sick and tired of this, and it needs answers, but there are obviously no short cuts or easy solutions to a subject this complicated and controversial.”¶ Many Mexicans wonder if this war is useless because no one is winning and so many people are dying Nieto declared that It must be made very clear that there will be no agreement or truce with organized crime.”¶ Experts note that the United States is going to play a key role in this war. Without the U.S., Mexican authorities have a much more limited scope of action The U.S. has to have a much more active attitude” when it comes to fighting drug trafficking.¶ Mexico desperately needs the U.S. to rationalize its drug policy, because the appetite for Mexican drugs is destroying Mexico. “The criminalization of drugs patently hasn’t worked,”
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Mexicans are tired of US anti-drugs policies- undermines relations
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SIMON: And has U.S. involvement been helpful?¶ SHIRK: That's a great question. I think it has been, depending on what you consider to be success. We have not seen violence go down. We have not necessarily seen the flow of drugs diminish. We have not seen necessarily an overall reduction in corruption in Mexico. But you can look at tactical successes. The dismantling of major organized crime groups, the target of specific organized crime figures has been accomplished over the last several years, thanks to this very high level of collaboration.¶ SIMON: So, why would President Enrique Pena Nieto be eager to reduce that cooperation?¶ SHIRK: Well, I'm not sure that the idea is necessarily to reduce collaboration so much as to reshape the dynamics of collaboration. I think that's probably how the Pena Nieto administration would portray this. For one thing, the Pena Nieto administration is trying to move away from the security policies that were employed by the Calderon administration. So, these efforts to go after high-level targets and to dismantle drug-trafficking organizations is diminishing as a priority of the Mexican government. And what they have emphasized instead is promoting citizen security.¶ I think that the Pena Nieto administration thinks that you had a real problem with the lack of coordination under the Calderon administration. And their idea, in the Pena Nieto government, is to try to tighten up and centralized the mechanisms of coordination and cooperation with the United States. And I think that's a deliberate attempt to vet and control whatever types of cooperation we're going to see between the U.S. and Mexican government.¶ SIMON: Well, that raises an issue that I think you've even touched on in some of your writings. Has this been, in many ways, a drug war that's been an American war conducted over the border?¶ SHIRK: I think that there are a lot of people who would agree with that idea. And in some ways, you can see that the drug war, as it's played out over the last 34 years, in particular as a U.S. proxy war. That said, over the last six years, working with Mexico, U.S. officials have consistently tried to let Mexico set the agenda. U.S. officials that I spoke to, repeatedly - and Mexican officials - repeatedly expressed the understanding that Mexico and the United States were working together because they had a shared responsibility to deal with the problem of drug trafficking and organized crime. But I think U.S. officials are really waiting to see whether they will be able to cooperate with the Pena Nieto administration and in what areas. Because there is some sense that the trust and collaboration that was built up over the last six years is at least on hold, if not in recession.¶ SIMON: It seems to me - I've spoken with Mexicans, who, to deal in shorthand, are sick of the drug wars and sick of the cartels and blame them for thousands of deaths, and yet at the same time, in some ways, they blame Americans for being the market for those drugs.¶ SHIRK: Yeah, I think that's true. I mean, first of all, I think many Mexicans are tired of having their country portrayed as a lawless, violent and corrupt place. That said, I also think that, for many Mexicans, this incredible fight that they've made over the last six years to try to take on organized crime has not yielded major gains in stopping the flow of drugs in even necessarily breaking down some of the major cartels that operate in Mexico. So, there is a sense that they've made all of this effort and it's primarily to prevent U.S. drug consumers in engaging in an illicit market activity. I think some Mexicans may simply say this is not worth the effort. This is not our fight. Let's let the drug traffickers get back to business as usual and we can get on with our lives.
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Shirk 5-4(David Shirk, NPR, Host Scott Simon speaking with David Shirk, associate professor of political science at the University of San Diego and recently finished his tenure as director of the Trans-Border Institute at USD; he is also the author of The Drug War in Mexico: Confronting a Shared Threat, May 4 2013,U.S.-Mexico Relations Complicated, Conditioned By Drug War, http://www.npr.org/2013/05/04/181053775/u-s-mexico-relations-complicated-conditioned-by-drug-war,PS)
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We have not seen violence go down. We have not necessarily seen the flow of drugs diminish. We have not seen necessarily an overall reduction in corruption in Mexico. the Pena Nieto administration is trying to move away from the security policies that were employed by the Calderon administration. Nieto thinks that you had a real problem with the lack of coordination under the Calderon administration. And their idea, in the Pena Nieto government, is to try to tighten up and centralized the mechanisms of coordination and cooperation with the United States. that's a deliberate attempt to vet and control whatever types of cooperation we're going to see between the U.S. and Mexican government.¶ this incredible fight that they've made over the last six years to try to take on organized crime has not yielded major gains in stopping the flow of drugs in even necessarily breaking down some of the major cartels that operate in Mexico
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US failed coordination with Calderon on the drug war means that Nieto wants to monitor what the two countries cooperate on more closely- solving the war would open up more opportunities for cooperation
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¶ US and Mexico have very close bilateral relations. Economic and demographic interconnection and the density of cross-border interaction have shaped mutual relations for a long time. In previous years, security has become the leading topic of mutual interaction. Due to increasing drug-cartel violence, the security situation in Mexico has significantly deteriorated which now poses the major security threat for both countries. The contribution focuses on analyzing the security implications of the drug cartel war for US-Mexican relations. The goal is to examine the recent development and focus on bilateral US-Mexican security cooperation in this regard. I look at the cooperation under Mérida Initiative and aims to identify major areas but also limits of interaction. Finally, the analysis aspires to provide a comprehensive outline of future prospects arising from the recent development and the results of presidential elections held in both countries in 2012.
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Kovac 12(Ivan Kovac, PhD. in International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science and International Relations of Matej Bel University in Banská Bystrica, Center for European and North Atlantic Affairs, 2012, Drug Cartel War as the Major Security Challenge in the US-Mexican Relations, http://cenaa.org/analysis/drug-cartel-war-as-the-major-security-challenge-in-the-us-mexican-relations/,PS)
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US and Mexico have very close bilateral relations In previous years, security has become the leading topic of mutual interaction. Due to increasing drug-cartel violence, the security situation in Mexico has significantly deteriorated which now poses the major security threat for both countries
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Security is still the biggest issue for bilaterial relations
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It is difficult to to have a functioning democratic system when drug cartels have the means to buy protection, political support, or votes at every level of government and society.¶ The economic distortions caused by the illegal drug trade stunt long term growth and development¶ As profits grow in the unregulated, black market for illegal drugs, it attracts more labor and capital investment, drawing it away from legitimate, regulated, and taxable sectors of the economy.¶ On the flip side, the businesses that make up the legitimate economic activity in the same country have to shoulder more of the tax and regulatory burden.¶ These macroeconomic distortions severely hamper the competitiveness of an economy.
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Boesler and Lutz 12(Matthew Boesler and Ashley Lutz, Business Insider, July 12 2012, 32 Reasons Why We Need To End The War On Drugs, http://www.businessinsider.com/32-reasons-why-we-need-to-end-the-war-on-drugs-2012-7?op=1,PS)
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It is difficult to to have a functioning democratic system when drug cartels have the means to buy protection, political support, or votes at every level of government and society.¶ The economic distortions caused by the illegal drug trade stunt long term growth and development¶ it attracts more labor and capital investment, drawing it away from legitimate, regulated, and taxable sectors of the economy.¶ the businesses that make up the legitimate economic activity in the same country have to shoulder more of the tax and regulatory burden.¶
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Long term growth is difficult when the biggest market is illegal
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(CNN) -- A former Mexican president who once led a military crackdown on drug cartels now has a new pitch: creating a legal system to produce, distribute and tax marijuana.¶ Vicente Fox is joining a group of entrepreneurs in Seattle this week to discuss that possibility, six months after voters in Washington state approved a ballot measure allowing recreational marijuana use.¶ As president, Fox launched Operation Safe Mexico, which sent soldiers and federal police to eight cities across the country in 2005 as drug cartels expanded their reach.¶ But since leaving office in 2006, he's taken a significantly softer stance. For years, he's pushed for drug legalization. Using military force to fight cartels doesn't work, he argues, but legalization would.¶ "With this we will avoid the violence," Fox told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Thursday. "We will control the criminals and reduce their income, and at the same time it would become a transparent, accountable business in the hands of businessmen."¶ Speaking to reporters earlier Thursday, Fox praised Washington state's efforts to legalize marijuana and "change the paradigm."¶ "In Mexico we welcome this initiative," he said, "because the cost of the war in the case of Mexico is becoming unbearable, too high for Mexico, Latin America and the rest of the world."¶ Legalization measures, he argued, ultimately topple the foundations of organized crime.¶ "We must get out of this trap, and here is the opportunity,' Fox said. "Now this group here is moving accordingly from words into plans, and from plans into action, and from action into the arena. To play the real game this group must understand the need to make good, safe, and legal use of these new laws, for the benefit of the people and the common good."¶ As Fox spoke, Jamen Shively nodded in agreement. The former Microsoft executive is heading up a new business venture that aims to create the first national brand of retail cannabis in the United States.¶ Fox told CNN he was not involved in Shively's venture, but sat beside him because he supports the push to move to put the drug trade in the hands of businessmen, not criminals.¶ "By making cannabis illegal, we have instead turned it into a tool for violence, exploited by criminals and organized crime, spanning many countries," Shively said. "Ladies and gentlemen, this is a unique moment in history. The Berlin Wall of the prohibition of cannabis is weak, and it is crumbling as we speak. And just as happened in Berlin in 1989, the old guards who used to protect the wall of cannabis prohibition are laying down their weapons and walking away."
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Shoichet 5-31(Catherine E. Shoichet, CNN, May 31 2013, Former Mexican president pushing for pot legalization, http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/30/us/washington-marijuana-fox,PS)
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A former Mexican president who once led a military crackdown on drug cartels now has a new pitch: creating a legal system to produce, distribute and tax marijuana.¶ But since leaving office in 2006, he's taken a significantly softer stance he's pushed for drug legalization. Using military force to fight cartels doesn't work, he argues, but legalization would.¶ With this we will avoid the violence We will control the criminals and reduce their income, and at the same time it would become a transparent, accountable business in the hands of businessmen."¶ "In Mexico we welcome this initiative because the cost of the war is , too high for Mexico Legalization measures ultimately topple the foundations of organized crime. "By making cannabis illegal, we have instead turned it into a tool for violence, exploited by criminals and organized crime, spanning many countries
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Marijuana legalization would allow for a marijuana industry in Mexico and reduced war costs
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What’s the basis for the crackdown? States are getting cheeky, it seems. And apparently, the feds don’t care for that very much.¶ Under federal law, marijuana is still classed as a Schedule I drug which means that it is not legal in any form, including for medical purposes. Despite popular belief, it cannot actually be prescribed (to get it in most states where it’s legal, you need a note, not a prescription, from a doctor). That hasn’t stopped states moving to legalize marijuana for medical purposes. Sixteen states and D.C. have done so: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington. Twelve more have similar legislation pending: Alabama, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.¶ States that have moved to legalize marijuana for medical reasons have done so for quite logical reasons: legalizing the drug (like nicotine and alcohol) means that it can be regulated. Regulations mean control. And control is directly linked to the almighty dollar.¶ The drug industry – both legal and illegal – is quite a lucrative market. Keeping it illegal, the argument goes, means that the most benefit flows to illegitimate members of society: dealers and cartels. On the other hand, taxpayers and government bear the burden of chasing those dragons as incarcerations for what are basically petty drug crimes continue to rise: $200 transaction can cost society $100,000 for a three-year sentence.¶ It’s estimated that the legalization of marijuana (not just for medical purposes) could take as much as $10 billion away from the cartels and dealers. And that’s not limited to the Colombian or Mexican drug trades. Domestically grown marijuana is thought to be the second most profitable cash crop in the United States: only corn is considered to be more lucrative.¶ To think about the kind of impact that could have on our economy, you need only look to the U.S. beverage alcohol industry. Making alcohol legal again has paid off. Just last year, the industry generated $91 billion in wages and over 3.9 million jobs for U.S. workers. In 2008, alcohol contributed over $40 billion to state and local revenues; nearly half of that came from corporate, personal income, property and other taxes.¶ State and local governments aren’t stupid. They see those numbers as positives. Take San Jose, for example. According to the Sacramento Bee, taxing legal medical marijuana collectives brought the city $290,000 in the first month the tax was imposed. Annualized, that’s nearly $3.5 million.¶ At the same time, decriminalizing the use of marijuana could reduce the amount of resources that states and municipalities are now forced to spend on enforcement and incarcerations.
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Erb 12(Kelly Phillips Erb, JD and LL.M Taxation, Forbes, Stirring the Pot: Could Legalizing Marijuana Save the Economy?, http://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2012/04/20/stirring-the-pot-could-legalizing-marijuana-save-the-economy/2/,PS)
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States that have moved to legalize marijuana for medical reasons have done so for quite logical reasons legalizing the drug means that it can be regulated. Regulations mean control. And control is directly linked to the dollar.¶ The drug industry Keeping it illegal means that the most benefit flows to illegitimate members of society: dealers and cartels. taxpayers and government bear the burden of chasing those dragons as incarcerations for what are basically petty drug crimes continue to rise the legalization of marijuana could take as much as $10 billion away from the cartels and dealers. Domestically grown marijuana is thought to be the second most profitable cash crop in the United States: look to the U.S. beverage alcohol industry. Making alcohol legal again has paid off the industry generated $91 billion in wages and over 3.9 million jobs for U.S. workers State and local governments aren’t stupid. They see those numbers as positives taxing legal medical marijuana collectives brought nearly $3.5 million.¶ decriminalizing the use of marijuana could reduce the amount of resources that states and municipalities are forced to spend
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CP solves the US economy
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"If I were a cartel member and I knew Colorado and Washington had it legal, I'd get a couple front people and do my business out of those states. Why would I not?" said Thomas J. Gorman, head of the Rocky Mountain High-Intensity Drug Trafficking Area, a government agency that coordinates anti-drug efforts by local, state and federal agencies in four Western states.¶ The Mexican government has said that drug legalization in some U.S. states could make it harder to prosecute growers and dealers in Mexico, because they would be producing a product potentially destined for a place where it is legal.
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Wyatt 12(E. Eduardo Castillokristen Wyatt, Bloomberg Business News, November 01 2013, Mexico study: US legalization cuts cartel profits, http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-11-01/mexico-study-us-legalization-cuts-cartel-profits,PS)
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If I were a cartel member and I knew Colorado and Washington had it legal, I'd get a couple front people and do my business out of those states. The Mexican government has said that drug legalization in some U.S. states could make it harder to prosecute growers and dealers in Mexico, because they would be producing a product potentially destined for a place where it is legal.
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Only legalizing marijuana in certain states doesn’t solve
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The global war on drugs began in 1961, when the UN Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs was established in order to create a "drug-free world."¶ The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime puts out an annual "World Drug Report" wherein they examine trends in drug use and production. However, the report never cares to assess the costs created by the war on drugs itself, which are the real problem to begin with.¶ A new organization, Count the Costs, has decided it's time for an assessment. To this end, they have compiled a comprehensive report detailing the death and destruction the war on drugs has directly caused around the world over the past 50 years.¶ Unfortunately, as Count the Costs points out, the saddest effect of the war on drugs is that "the centrality of criminalizing users means that in reality a war on drugs is to a significant degree, a war on drug users – a war on people."¶ The 'war on drugs' is insanely expensive¶ In the past 40 years, The US has spent more than $1 trillion enforcing drug laws.¶ Annually, the US spends at least $15 billion a year on drug law enforcement.¶ Globally, over $100 billion is spent fighting the war on drugs every single year.¶ All that money is in practice a complete and total waste¶ Since the global war on drugs began, drug use has expanded steadily, the exact opposite outcome the war is meant to effect.¶ There have been nearly no official cost benefit analyses of the war on drugs, leaving the door wide open for all kinds of unexpected harm caused and little accountability.¶ That wasted money could be spent on programs that actually matter¶ Governments around the world are enduring brutal austerity measures to balance budgets in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008.¶ Taxpayer money squandered on drug enforcement is diverted from other social spending measures that actually benefit citizens.¶ Mass imprisonment of drug users sacrifices economic productivity¶ Forty years ago, 38,000 people were imprisoned in the US for drug-related offenses.¶ Today, that number stands at over 500,000, over 13 times the amount 40 years.¶ The Office of National Drug Control Policy estimates resulting productivity losses of around $40 billion a year.¶ And get this: the U.S. has more people in prison for drug-related crimes than the entire EU has prisoners. This is despite the fact that the population of the U.S. is 40 percent smaller than that of the EU.
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Boesler and Lutz 12(Matthew Boesler and Ashley Lutz, Business Insider, July 12 2012, 32 Reasons Why We Need To End The War On Drugs, http://www.businessinsider.com/32-reasons-why-we-need-to-end-the-war-on-drugs-2012-7?op=1,PS)
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The United Nations puts out an annual "World Drug Report" wherein they examine trends in drug use and production the report never cares to assess the costs created by the war on drugs itself decided the centrality of criminalizing users means that in reality a war on drugs is to a significant degree, a war on drug users – a war on people."¶ The 'war on drugs' is insanely expensive¶ The US has spent more than $1 trillion enforcing drug laws All that money is in practice a complete and total waste¶ drug use has expanded steadily, the exact opposite outcome the war is meant to effect.¶ There have been nearly no official cost benefit analyses of the war on drugs wasted money could be spent on programs that actually matter¶ Governments around the world are enduring brutal austerity measures to balance budgets Taxpayer money squandered on drug enforcement is diverted from other social spending measures that actually benefit citizens.¶ Mass imprisonment of drug users sacrifices economic productivity¶
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The War on Drugs isn’t practical
| 2,432 | 32 | 1,008 | 414 | 6 | 168 | 0.014493 | 0.405797 |
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Becoming a criminal has never been more profitable¶ This is basic supply and demand.¶ Not only do criminals get paid to take on more risk, but the completely unregulated playing field allows for insane price markups.¶ The Alternative World Drug Report illustrates how ridiculous this can get:¶ So while there is a 413% mark-up from farm gate to consumer in the price of a legal drug, coffee, the percentage price mark-up for an illegal drug such as heroin can run into multiple thousands.¶ Expensive drugs cause more people to commit crimes in order to fund their habits¶ For example, cigarette smokers typically don't have to commit felonies just to fund their lifestyles.¶ However, due to insane mark-ups of unsafe, unregulated, and therefore highly addicting products, many users of illegal drugs often do.¶ A comparison of illegal drug users with medicinal users of the same drugs shows dramatic decreases in the level of crime being committed to fund drug addictions.¶ The costs to the public health system of unsafe, unregulated drugs are exorbitant¶ There is simply no way to vouch for the safety of products in a completely unregulated market like that for illegal drugs.¶ The Alternative World Drug Report puts it this way:¶ Drugs bought through criminal networks are often cut with contaminants; dealers sell more potent and risky products; and high-risk behaviors such as injecting and needle sharing in unsupervised and unhygienic environments are commonplace. The resulting increases in hospital visits and emergency room admissions for infections, overdose, and poisonings, combined with increased treatment requirement for HIV/AIDS, hepatitis and tuberculosis, can place a substantial additional burden on already squeezed healthcare budgets.
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Boesler and Lutz 12(Matthew Boesler and Ashley Lutz, Business Insider, July 12 2012, 32 Reasons Why We Need To End The War On Drugs, http://www.businessinsider.com/32-reasons-why-we-need-to-end-the-war-on-drugs-2012-7?op=1,PS)
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Becoming a criminal has never been more profitable¶ This is basic supply and demand.¶ Not only do criminals get paid to take on more risk the completely unregulated playing field allows for insane price markups.¶ Expensive drugs cause more people to commit crimes in order to fund their habits¶ cigarette smokers typically don't have to commit felonies just to fund their lifestyles.¶ However, due to insane mark-ups of unsafe, unregulated, and therefore highly addicting products, many users of illegal drugs often do.¶ Drugs bought through criminal networks are often cut with contaminants; dealers sell more potent and risky products; high-risk behaviors such as injecting and needle sharing in unsupervised and unhygienic environments are commonplace
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B. Criminal rates are higher than ever
| 1,757 | 38 | 754 | 272 | 7 | 114 | 0.025735 | 0.419118 |
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Again, nobody knows exactly how much the whole Mexico-U.S. marijuana trade is worth, with estimates ranging from $2 billion to $20 billion annually. But even if you believe the lowest numbers, legal marijuana would take billions of dollars a year away from organized crime. This would inflict more financial damage than soldiers or drug agents have managed in years and substantially weaken cartels.¶ It is also argued that Mexican gangsters have expanded to a portfolio of crimes that includes kidnapping, extortion, human smuggling and theft from oil pipelines. This is a terrifying truth. But this does not take away from the fact that the marijuana trade provides the crime groups with major resources. That they are committing crimes such as kidnapping, which have a horrific effect on innocent people, makes cutting off their financing all the more urgent.¶ The cartels will not disappear overnight. U.S. agents and the Mexican police need to continue battling hit squads that wield rocket-propelled grenades and belt-driven machine guns. Killers who hack off heads still have to be locked away. Mexico needs to clean up corruption among the police and build a valid justice system. And young men in the barrios have to be given a better option than signing up as killers.¶ All these tasks will be easier if the flow of money to the cartels is dramatically slowed down. Do we really want to hand them another trillion dollars over the next three decades?¶ It is always hard to deal with these global issues in a world where all politics is local. Mexico was not even featured in the presidential debate on foreign policy, despite that fact that the United States has supported Calderón’s war on drugs with more than $1.3 billion worth of hardware, including Black Hawk helicopters, and that cartels have attacked and killed U.S. agents.
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Grillo 12(Ioan Grillo, Author of “El Narco: Inside Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency”, The New York Times, November 1 2012, Hit Mexico’s Cartels With Legalization, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/opinion/hit-mexicos-cartels-with-legalization.html, PS)
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nobody knows exactly how much the whole Mexico-U.S. marijuana trade is worth, with estimates ranging from $2 billion to $20 billion annually even if you believe the lowest numbers, legal marijuana would take billions of dollars a year away from organized crime. marijuana trade provides the crime groups with major resources That they are committing crimes such as kidnapping makes cutting off their financing all the more urgent.¶ The cartels will not disappear overnight. U.S. agents and the Mexican police need to continue battling hit squads that wield rocket-propelled grenades and belt-driven machine guns. Mexico needs to clean up corruption among the police and build a valid justice system. All these tasks will be easier if the flow of money to the cartels is dramatically slowed down.
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Perm solves best- cutting off income from marijuana isn’t enough
| 1,842 | 64 | 795 | 305 | 10 | 127 | 0.032787 | 0.416393 |
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Much of the marijuana consumed in the U.S. comes from Mexico. It’s impossible to know exactly, but my colleagues and I put the range at 40 to 67 percent for 2008. Our research also suggests that legalizing commercial marijuana production at the national level could drive out most of the marijuana imported from Mexico.¶ With marijuana legalization at the state level, imports from Mexico would depend on several factors, like how taxes influenced the market price, whether legally sold marijuana were illegally diverted to other states, and the severity of the federal response.¶ We don’t expect the passage of legalization in a few states to significantly affect demand for Mexican marijuana. But what would happen to Mexican drug trafficking organizations if many states legalized marijuana or if there were national legalization?¶ These drug trafficking organizations do more than export drugs to the United States. Indeed, they sell drugs within Mexico and generate revenue from extortion, kidnapping and theft. We estimated that exporting drugs to the U.S. earned these organizations $6 billion to $8 billion in 2008, of which 15 to 26 percent came from marijuana (the rest was from cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine). While marijuana’s share of drug export revenue has most likely grown in the past five years, it is still nowhere near the mythical 60 percent figure sometimes cited. Smuggling marijuana into the U.S. is not the main revenue source for most of these organizations.¶ Driving Mexican marijuana out of the U.S. would probably reduce the traffickers’ export revenue by a few billion dollars a year. But would reducing that revenue lead to a corresponding decrease in trafficker violence? Much depends on which organizations are affected, whether these groups fight over the shrinking market, and the level of violence associated with whatever activities replace marijuana smuggling in their portfolios.
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Kilmer 5-23(Beau Kilmer, co-director of the RAND Drug Policy Research Center and co-author of “Marijuana Legalization: What Everyone Needs to Know.” He is also on the team helping the Washington State Liquor Control Board estimate the size of Washington’s marijuana market, The NY Times, Legalization in the U.S. and Crime in Mexico, http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/05/22/how-can-marijuana-be-sold-safely/why-marijuana-legalization-wouldnt-end-drug-crime,PS)
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These drug trafficking organizations do more than export drugs to the United States they sell drugs within Mexico and generate revenue from extortion, kidnapping and theft. While marijuana’s share of drug export revenue has most likely grown in the past five years, it is still nowhere near the mythical 60 percent figure sometimes cited. Smuggling marijuana into the U.S. is not the main revenue source for most of these organizations.¶ Driving Mexican marijuana out of the U.S. would probably reduce the traffickers’ export revenue by a few billion dollars a year. But would reducing that revenue lead to a corresponding decrease in trafficker violence?
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CP doesn’t solve- marijuana only a small portion of cartel profit
| 1,924 | 65 | 655 | 301 | 11 | 104 | 0.036545 | 0.345515 |
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In other words, the war on drugs may be taking its toll on the narcotics trade, but it hasn't done anything to end the violence -- a stubborn fact that runs counter to an emerging consensus about the drug war. Across Latin America, intellectuals, scholars, and even policymakers are increasingly arguing that there is just one thing that can bring an end to the narco-troubles: the decriminalization of the drug trade in the United States. Legalize and regulate use, proponents argue, and prices would drop and the illicit trade would disappear overnight. Cartels would be starved of their piece of the global illicit drug pie, which the UNODC has estimated at some $320 billion per year.¶ But would legalization really work? With each day that passes, it looks like it wouldn't be enough, for one overarching reason: The cartels are becoming less like traffickers and more like mafias. Their currency is no longer just cocaine, methamphetamines, or heroin, though they earn revenue from each of these products. As they have grown in size and ambition, like so many big multinational corporations, they have diversified. The cartels are now active in all types of illicit markets, not just drugs.¶ "Mexico is experiencing a change with the emergence of criminal organizations that, rather than being product-oriented -- drug trafficking -- are territorial based," says Antonio Mazzitelli, head of the UNODC office in Mexico City. They now specialize in running protection rackets of all kinds, he says, which might explain why the violence has gotten so bad: Mafias enforce their territorial control by force, killing anyone who resists or gets in the way.¶ "Before, we had organized crime, but operating strictly in narcotrafficking," adds Eduardo Guerrero Gutiérrez, a consultant and former advisor to the Mexican presidency. "Now we have a type of mafia violence ... and they are extorting from the people at levels that are incredibly high -- from the rich, from businesses." For this reason, Mazzitelli says, legalization would have "little effect."
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Dickinson 11(Elizabeth Dickinson, Foreign Policy News, June 22 2011, Legalizing Drugs Won't Stop Mexico's Brutal Cartels, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/22/legalizing_drugs_wont_stop_mexicos_brutal_cartels,PS)
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But would legalization work it looks like it wouldn't be enough The cartels are becoming less like traffickers and more like mafias. The cartels are now active in all types of illicit markets, not just drugs.¶ "Mexico is experiencing a change with the emergence of criminal organizations that, rather than being product-oriented -- drug trafficking -- are territorial based Mafias enforce their territorial control by force, killing anyone who resists or gets in the way. legalization would have "little effect."
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Legalization would not stamp out the drug trade- drug cartels no longer operation like they did before
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FOR a growing number of American policy makers, politicians and activists, the best answer to the spiraling violence in Mexico is to legalize the marijuana that, they argue, fuels the country’s vicious cartels and smugglers. After all, according to official estimates, marijuana constitutes 60 percent of cartels’ drug profits. Legalization would move that trade into the open market, driving down the price and undermining the cartels’ power and influence.¶ Unfortunately, it’s not that easy. Marijuana legalization has many merits, but it would do little to hinder the long-term economics of the cartels — and the violent toll they take on Mexican society.¶ For one thing, if marijuana makes up 60 percent of the cartels’ profits, that still leaves another 40 percent, which includes the sale of methamphetamine, cocaine, and brown-powder and black-tar heroin. If marijuana were legalized, the cartels would still make huge profits from the sale of these other drugs.¶ Plus, there’s no reason the cartels couldn’t enter the legal market for the sale of marijuana, as organized crime groups did in the United States after the repeal of Prohibition.¶
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Longmire 11(Sylvia Longmire, a former officer and investigative special agent in the Air Force, is the author of the forthcoming book “Cartel: The Coming Invasion of Mexico’s Drug Wars”, The New York Times, June 18 2011, Legalization Won’t Kill the Cartels, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/19/opinion/19longmire.html?_r=0,PS)
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the best answer to the spiraling violence in Mexico is to legalize the marijuana that fuels the country’s vicious cartels and smugglers. but it would do little to hinder the long-term economics of the cartels if marijuana makes up 60 percent of the cartels’ profits, that still leaves another 40 percent, If marijuana were legalized, the cartels would still make huge profits from the sale of these other drugs.¶ , there’s no reason the cartels couldn’t enter the legal market for the sale of marijuana,
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At best legalizing marijuana will only deal a short term blow to Mexican drug cartels
| 1,150 | 85 | 503 | 181 | 15 | 85 | 0.082873 | 0.469613 |
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The bust netted an impressive haul, including 20 pounds of heroin, 30 pounds of methamphetamine, $190,000 in cash, and 31 guns, including 10 assault rifles. One illicit substance was notably absent from the evidence locker: marijuana.¶ The notion that legalizing marijuana will cripple Mexico's brutal drug cartels has gained steam in recent years, and finally boiled over last month when Washington and Colorado became the first states to legalize marijuana for recreational use. Adults 21 and over in both states will be allowed to possess up to an ounce of processed pot, reversing a prohibition policy that stood for the better part of a century. It's unclear whether the federal government will tolerate the repeal, but if legal pot remains the law of the land, it is widely assumed that Mexican drug cartels will be out several billion dollars in annual revenue.¶ But talk to entrepreneurs familiar with the existing marijuana industry in Washington and Colorado -- and to law enforcement agents who deal with gang crime -- and there is reason for skepticism. Not only have the cartels diversified their portfolios (to borrow language applied to other multinational, multibillion dollar operations); the Mexican suppliers have already been edged out of the local markets in the two new green states.¶ Prior to the election, the Mexican Center for Competitiveness, a respected think tank based in Mexico City, issued a report estimating that legalization in Washington alone could cut the cartels' annual marijuana profits up to $1.37 billion by eliminating the black market for pot. Legalization proponents (and numerous media outlets, including The Atlantic) seized on the figure, trumpeting about the opportunity to hit organized crime in the pocketbook as yet another reason to end America's disastrous war on drugs.¶ The campaign in Washington featured endorsements by the FBI's former field division chief in Seattle, as well as former U.S. Attorney John McKay, a George W. Bush-appointee who had become an outspoken advocate of drug law reform. Pitching the measure, McKay often invoked beheadings in Mexico and emphasized the negative impact that legal weed might have on the vicious narcos.¶ "I enforced our marijuana laws," McKay said in a campaign ad. "I've come to believe they don't work. Filling our courts and jails has failed to reduce marijuana use. And drug cartels are pocketing all the profits. It's time for a new approach."¶ Both Colorado and Washington, however, have booming medical marijuana industries that aid legitimate pain patients in need of extremely potent hybrid strains and also indirectly supply an untold number of connoisseur stoners. Mexican marijuana, typically grown outdoors on large plantations, contains little more than 5 percent THC -- the compound responsible for marijuana highs -- compared to the 15 percent or more found on the top shelf of a U.S. dispensary. Josh Berman, cofounder of the 4Evergreen Group, an organization that bills itself as Washington's "premier medical cannabis patient network," says the shrink-wrapped Mexican schwag is looked upon with scorn.¶ "It's such a flooded market they can't sell that Mexican brick weed here," Berman said. "We have more weed being grown here than anywhere else in the world, probably by three-fold. Every gangster I know is already in the soup line because of medical cannabis."¶ Mexican drug traffickers are undoubtedly active in Washington and Colorado. The latest National Gang Threat Assessment published by the FBI says the Sinaloa Cartel, for instance, has ties to various Sureño factions and the Mara Salvatrucha, street gangs with an established presence in both states. The FBI writes that these groups that "traditionally served as the primary organized retail or mid-level distributor of drugs in most major U.S. cities are now purchasing drugs directly from the cartels, thereby eliminating the mid-level wholesale dealer."¶ Joe Gagliardi, a gang-unit detective in Seattle's county sheriff's office, says product from local growhouses has largely replaced the once-coveted "BC Bud" imported from neighboring Canada. Gangs, he says, will sometimes trade Washington pot to get discounts on meth shipments that originate in Mexican labs. The detective foresees gangsters buying out weed stores' inventory and selling it in other states, or perhaps using the black market to undercut the heavily regulated legal one, which levies a 25-percent tax at each step of the way from grower to smoker. (The duty adds an estimated $500 million to Washington state coffers every year.)¶ "I just don't see the legislation of marijuana causing any problems for the criminals," Gagliardi said. "The gangs are still going to grow marijuana and they're still going to sell marijuana, only now it will be legal for them to walk around with an ounce supply individually packaged and not have any repercussions."
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Hamilton 12(Keegan Hamilton, The Atlantic, December 3 2012, Why Legalizing Pot Won't Curb the Drug War, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/12/why-legalizing-pot-wont-curb-the-drug-war/265729/,PS)
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The notion that legalizing marijuana will cripple Mexico's brutal drug cartels has gained steam in recent years, if legal pot remains the law of the land, it is widely assumed that Mexican drug cartels will be out several billion dollars in annual revenue.¶ the cartels diversified their portfolios the Mexican suppliers have already been edged out of the local markets in the two new green states.¶ "I just don't see the legislation of marijuana causing any problems for the criminals," The gangs are still going to grow marijuana and they're still going to sell marijuana, only now it will be legal for them to walk around with an ounce supply individually packaged and not have any repercussions."
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No solvency- legalizing marijuana won’t affect cartels
| 4,908 | 54 | 700 | 774 | 7 | 117 | 0.009044 | 0.151163 |
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The journalist H.L. Mencken once observed, “For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.”¶ Several clear, simple arguments for legalizing marijuana have gained traction with the public. Marijuana proponents assert it is less harmful than alcohol and, since alcohol is legal, it is hypocritical to market alcohol while marijuana remains illegal. They argue marijuana is already widely available, so legalization will have no impact on use or problems. Moreover, they predict legalization will unburden enforcement, court and penal systems while creating new tax revenues, providing a productive fix for the budget woes faced in many states. This argument for legalization is attractive but is legalization the right answer? As one who has spent the past 15 years following the published cannabis research, I am dubious.¶ Half of winning a debate is getting to frame the context. Those advocating marijuana legalization frame it as a fairness issue by comparing marijuana to alcohol. This can be stated as, “You drink your glass of wine, why can’t I smoke my weed?” This is a false analogy equating alcohol, in any amount, to using in marijuana but the two are not equivalent.¶ Most adults are not impaired on a standard drink consumed in an hour with a meal,1,2 This type of drinking can be readily observed in many restaurants. The majority of drinkers in the United States consume alcohol in small quantities for most of their adult life with negligible negative effects.3 A more accurate analogy compares marijuana use to drinking for a high. A person may have a cold beer after mowing the lawn to enjoy the taste and cool off with no intention to get even tipsy; the purpose of using marijuana is to get buzzed or high. There is no other reason to use it. Occasions of use are actually bouts of impairment. This distinguishes it from typical alcohol use and from a public health perspective is problematic. To frame the debate as marijuana versus alcohol ignores the actual question that must be asked: Is marijuana harmful to those using it?¶ Legalization proponents argue marijuana causes fewer problems than alcohol but this is partly because far fewer people use it. The latest figures from SAMHSA’s National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) show 4.6 million marijuana users were daily or near daily users, using 300 or more days in the past year, while those binge drinking alcohol at least once in just the past 30 days is a rate twelve times higher at 58.6 million people.4 Proponents note marijuana use has not greatly increased in states with medical marijuana laws but overt legalization communicates social approval of casual use.¶ Many individuals won’t break the law to use a substance or lie to a physician to get a prescription so current availability is not a good proxy measure of what happens with increased social acceptance. With legalization, use rates are likely to shoot up, especially in our advertising-driven society where billions in corporate profits can be made by promoting its use. This is supported in a study of California legalization effects done by the Rand Drug Policy Research Center in 2010. Their studies suggest use rates would likely increase by 25% among adults with more new initiates, more regular users and people using for longer periods of time.5,6 With this rise in use comes increased financial and human costs. They would not speculate on what might happen among youth consumption except to say it would likely rise.¶ No one aware of alcohol’s links to high-speed driving, fights, assaults and suicide, believes it is harmless; marijuana’s effects are not so dramatic but marijuana is not benign. Comparing it to alcohol masks marijuana-specific problems. Marijuana users report it helps them to focus attention but this is really a loss of ability to rapidly shift attention among multiple things. This diminished ability to shift attention is a problem when driving.¶ Research finds those acutely under cannabis’ influence lose capacity to rapidly attend to the multiple factors required in driving, can impair perception and slow response times.7,8 Theseeffectsimpairdrivingandcreate an increased risk for both crashes and fatalities.9,10 Its lingering effects include memory problems, impaired executive brain functions of problem- solving, prioritizing, planning and persistence to task completion and inflexible thinking, with persistence in erroneous problem-solving.11,12 Longitudinal studies found compared to non-users, marijuana users have poorer life outcomes including an increased probability of using other illicit drugs, being depressed, spending more time unemployed, with lower income and more likely to be single or divorced.¶ With or without pre-existing psychopathology, the most powerful predictor of cannabis dependence at age 21 is the quantity and frequency of use at age 18.13-16 Long-term heavy marijuana users show reduced brain hippocampus and amygdala volume with increased sub threshold psychotic symptoms. These can include flat emotional affect, delusions, anhedonia, being more asocial or experiencing amotivation. Heavy users also exhibit a decreased capacity for verbal learning and more memory impairment. Cannabis also appears to act as an environmental risk factor for triggering schizophrenia in genetically predisposed individuals. 17-19 Legalization would likely increase these public health burdens due to increased use.¶ While legalization might decrease some social costs, particularly in the legal system, it is likely to increase other costs. Those favoring legalization often point out alcohol prohibition caused the rise of organized crime but fail to note organized crime did not vanish when prohibition ended. It simply moved to other “businesses.” We may see reduced costs in police, court and detention systems for prosecuting mostly misdemeanor possession charges, and yes, taxes could create new revenue. However, as noted from studies already cited, these benefits are likely to be significantly offset by increased regulatory bureaucracy, black market sales, increased healthcare costs, more demand for treatment of cannabis dependence and greater losses in economic productivity. We are also likely to see some enforcement and court costs increase with more impaired driving and more marijuana- related traffic fatalities.20 The latter is especially costly because not only does it incur the emotional loss to family and friends, it also robs society of all of the productive years of the individual who dies. These are frequently young adults, so the number of lost years can be enormous.¶ Marijuana carries its own risks as a significant public health and public safety issue. To argue it does less harm than something else is a faint reason to legalize it. Our two legal substances alcohol and tobacco already incur more costs than they generate public revenue. Choosing to add another substance to that list, one that serves no function but getting high, invites still more social costs. Like its predecessors, legal marijuana is unlikely to pay its bills and monetary gains will not undo the health, cognitive and relationship problems it incurs. Our current problem is not with marijuana laws but with marijuana use. Increased public awareness of the risks more recently clarified in the research along with tailored prevention and treatment efforts to reduce use are likely to be more cost-effective. Since it would further damage public health, burden healthcare and treatment systems with preventable problems and undermine individual well-being, legalization is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.
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Barger 12(Allan Barger, Recovery Today, Research Analyst at Prevention Research Institute who reviews peer-re- viewed research on drugs, brain and behavior and trains profes- sionals working with drug clients. Barger is a member of the Nation- al Association of Social Workers, the Research Society on Alcohol- ism and the New York Academy of Sciences, Legalization is Clear, Simple and Wrong, http://www.recoverytoday.net/articles/478-legalization-is-clear-simple-and-wrong,PS)
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Marijuana proponents argue marijuana is already widely available, so legalization will have no impact on use or problems. legalization will unburden enforcement, court and penal systems while creating new tax revenues, providing a productive fix for the budget woes faced in many states. attractive but is legalization the right answer? A person may have a cold beer after mowing the lawn to enjoy the taste and cool off with no intention to get even tipsy; the purpose of using marijuana is to get buzzed or high. There is no other reason to use it. Legalization proponents argue marijuana causes fewer problems than alcohol but this is partly because far fewer people use it. Many individuals won’t break the law to use a substance or lie to a physician to get a prescription With legalization, use rates are likely to shoot up, marijuana’s effects are not so dramatic but marijuana is not benign those acutely under cannabis’ influence lose capacity to rapidly attend to the multiple factors required in driving, can impair perception and slow response times compared to non-users, marijuana users have poorer life outcomes including an increased probability of using other illicit drugs, being depressed, spending more time unemployed, with lower income and more likely to be single or divorced Long-term heavy marijuana users show reduced brain hippocampus and amygdala volume with increased sub threshold psychotic symptoms. We are also likely to see some enforcement and court costs increase with more impaired driving and more marijuana- related traffic fatalities Our current problem is not with marijuana laws but with marijuana use. legalization is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.
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Marijuana decreases the quality of life for users
| 7,664 | 49 | 1,702 | 1,196 | 8 | 272 | 0.006689 | 0.227425 |
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Despite current efforts by the United States to assist with the Mexican Drug War, the violence is increasing and the cartels are gaining ground. The United States must reassert its efforts in order to roll back the influence of the cartels and end their reign. We advise a two front approach to combatting the cartels: reducing the lar ge demand for drugs in the U.S., and collaborate with the Mexican government to target the cartels in Mexico.¶ In order to address the large demand of drugs in the United States, which fuels much of the sale of drugs from Mexico, domestic policy should conti nue to include treatment, prevention, and enforcement measures. Studies have shown that treatment is cost-effective and can be cost- reducing, especially when targeted to specific and at -risk populations, because it can reduce individual drug use and reduce drug-related risks from crime, overdose, and HIV infection. ¶ These measures, notably the reduction in crime, increa se the social good and support the implementation of treatment programs aimed at drug u sers, particularly drug-related offenders. However, while treatment greatly reduces drug use in drug users, treatment alone is not significantly effective in reducing the number of drug users in the U.S. ¶ 91 Broad prevention programs that target common r isk factors associated with unhealthy and antisocial behaviors (which may lead youth to engage in substance abuse) have been shown to reduce drug initiation and also have positive effects on youth health and wellbeing. Such prevention programs can have great success when enacte d in school settings because of the benefits they may bring to students, as long as qualit y is ascertained. 92 Efforts should also be put into studying secondary and tertiary prevention programs and their effectiveness.¶¶ Enforcement programs are a necessary component of drug use reduction, but the scope of and effectiveness of these programs must be scrutiniz ed and researched. A 2007 study has shown that the effectiveness of enforcement techniques depends greatly on the stage of the drug “epidemic” and that enforcement is most fruitfu l (in use reduction) when the drug “epidemic” is in its early stages. 93 Specifically, more research should be done into the effectiveness of interdiction and when it ceases to be useful, seeing as one 1993 study has shown that interdiction is unlikely to reduce consump tion by raising drug prices and reducing drug availability. 94 A prime area for expansion is greater coordination between low-level enforcers and treatment providers: when arresting of fenders, treatment as an alternative to penal punishment would serve as a form of secondary or tertiary prevention and could lead to use reduction. It is necessary to examine the effectiveness of us e reduction techniques (prevention, treatment, and enforcement) in relation to how much is spent on each method and subsequently strike a balance between the three. ¶ It is also necessary to realize that, due to the natural variations in drug use, each main method of r educing drug use is most useful at a certain stage in a drug “epidemic”: enforcement in the earl y stages, treatment as the epidemic matures, and non-specific prevention can occur consistently. The current administration has made large efforts to increase funds aimed at treatment and the consolidation of funds for programs and methods which have proven to be effective. However, there must be objective scrutiny of each method in relation to its effectiveness and how cooper ation between methods can be increased to form a dynamic domestic drug policy.¶ On the front of assisting the Mexican government, two measures could be taken by the U.S. government to improve the efforts of combatting the cartel. Firstly, the passing of a bill to label the Mexican drug cartels international terrorist organizations. This act would allow all those caught assisting the cartels by any means in the Unite d States could be tried for supporting terrorism. This would dramatically increase the puni shment for perpetrators. Also, such a move would require U.S. financial institutions to freeze suspected cartel assets in their possession and report them to the Department of Treasury. By declar ing the cartels foreign terrorist organizations, the U.S. would be able to deter cartel affiliates through stronger penalties and better counter-financing. ¶ Secondly, the U.S. should continue to support the Merida Initiative, with an increased emphasis on the training and advisement of Mexican law enforcement and military personnel. The cartel situation is one that is similar to that o f an insurgency. The Mexican government is at war with organizations seeking geographic control of the country. The counter-insurgency experience of American personnel in the civilian an d military sector can be used to Mexican advantage. Counter-insurgency requires well-trained forces, which the U.S. can help provide to the Mexican government, along with the equipment an d technology allocated in the Merida Initiative.¶ The combination of attacking both the cartels and the demand for their drugs will help burn the stick from both ends, reducing their market and their structure to a point where it is much less profitable for them to operate.
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Dean et al 12(Dean et al, Final Report of the¶ Institute of Politics, Harvard Institute of Politics, “THE WAR ON MEXICAN CARTELS¶ OPTIONS FOR U.S. AND MEXICAN POLICY-MAKERS”, pg 32-34, http://www.iop.harvard.edu/sites/default/files_new/research-policy-papers/TheWarOnMexicanCartels.pdf,PS)
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The United States must reassert its efforts in order to roll back the influence of the cartels and end their reign. two front approach to combatting the cartels: reducing the lar ge demand for drugs in the U.S., and collaborate with the Mexican government to target the cartels in Mexico the United States domestic policy should conti nue to include treatment, prevention, and enforcement measures. Studies have shown that treatment is cost-effective and can be cost- reducing, especially when targeted to specific and at -risk populations, treatment alone is not significantly effective in reducing the number of drug users Efforts should also be put into studying secondary and tertiary prevention programs and their effectiveness ¶ The current administration has made large efforts to increase funds aimed at treatment and the consolidation of funds for programs and methods which have proven to be effective. On the front of assisting the Mexican government, two measures could be taken by the U.S. government to improve the efforts of combatting the cartel. Firstly, the passing of a bill to label the Mexican drug cartels international terrorist organizations. the U.S. would be able to deter cartel affiliates through stronger penalties and better counter-financing. ¶ Secondly, the U.S. should continue to support the Merida Initiative, with an increased emphasis on the training and advisement of Mexican law enforcement and military personnel The counter-insurgency experience of American personnel in the civilian an d military sector can be used to Mexican advantage The combination of attacking both the cartels and the demand for their drugs will help burn the stick from both ends, reducing their market and their structure to a point where it is much less profitable for them to operate.
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CP solves drug cartels and leads to US-Mexico relations
| 5,287 | 55 | 1,803 | 845 | 9 | 284 | 0.010651 | 0.336095 |
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Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said in San Francisco she was optimistic that Congress could soon pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill.¶ Speaking after a roundtable discussion with labor, faith and immigration advocacy groups in San Francisco today, Pelosi said the legislation was a statement of national values, including respect for the dignity of the individual.¶ "These people who come here with their hopes, dreams and aspirations to make a better life for their families, they make America more American," Pelosi said. "We are, by and large, a nation of immigrants," Pelosi added.¶ Those meeting with Pelosi Friday included advocates who told tales of families separated by deportation and individuals who lost jobs due to checks on their immigration status.¶ Putri Siti, who spoke for Asian Students Promoting Immigration Rights Through Education, said she came to the United States from Indonesia with her family when she was 11.¶ Her family learned that their petition to change their immigration status was denied when she was in her first year of college, but was able to successfully fight to stop their deportation through a public campaign.¶ "Not everyone is so lucky," Siti said, calling for a "clear and direct path to citizenship." We have enough families being hurt, being torn apart, because of this broken immigration system." Pelosi acknowledged she was not entirely happy with every aspect of current proposals, including limits on family reunification and a deal with Republicans announced Thursday that would require an increase in border security.¶ But she took a pragmatic tone, saying they were probably necessary tradeoffs. "I'm not madly in love with any of these bills but we have to make some progress," she said.
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Bay City News, 6/22/2013 (“Pelosi Optimistic on Immigration Reform Bill,” Accessed June 22, 2013 from http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Pelosi-Optimistic-on-Immigration-Reform-Bill-212608761.html)
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Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said in San Francisco she was optimistic that Congress could soon pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill she took a pragmatic tone, saying they were probably necessary tradeoffs. "I'm not madly in love with any of these bills but we have to make some progress," she said.
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Uniqueness: Immigration reform will pass now.
| 1,752 | 45 | 308 | 278 | 6 | 51 | 0.021583 | 0.183453 |
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We have seen, when you look at the table of the top 20 firms that are H1-B visa requestors, at least 15 of those are IT firms. And as we're seeing across industry, much of the hardware and software that's used in this country is not only manufactured now overseas, but it's developed overseas by scientists and engineers who were educated here in the United States.¶ We're seeing a lot more activity around cyber-security, certainly noteworthy attacks here very recently. It's becoming an increasingly dominant set of requirements across not only to the Department of Defense, but the Department of Homeland Security and the critical infrastructure that's held in private hands. Was there any discussion or any interest from DOD or DHS as you undertook this review on the security things about what can be done to try to generate a more effective group of IT experts here in the United States, many of which are coming to the U.S. institutions, academic institutions from overseas and often returning back? This potentially puts us at a competitive disadvantage going forward.¶ MCLARTY: Yes. And I think your question largely is the answer as well. I mean, clearly we have less talented students here studying -- or put another way, more talented students studying in other countries that are gifted, talented, really have a tremendous ability to develop these kind of technology and scientific advances, we're going to be put at an increasingly disadvantage. Where if they come here -- and I kind of like Dr. Land's approach of the green card being handed to them or carefully put in their billfold or purse as they graduate -- then, obviously, that's going to strengthen, I think, our system, our security needs.¶ But again, I think, Frank, you raised a very good point in terms of the security measures that are needed in this interim, if you want to call it that, as we hopefully get some reform here in this area. Yes, we were mindful of that. Ted, you might want to be a little more specific in that regard. But I think you make the basic point of the need. I mean, you're right; about the 15 out of the top 20 and what's being developed overseas. That underscores the need to get the best and brightest here and to keep them here -- or, if they go back to their countries, at least they have a link here.
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Thomas McLarty, 7/8/2009 (Council on Foreign Relations), July 8, 2009. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from http://www.cfr.org/immigration/us-immigration-policy-report-cfr-sponsored-independent-task-force/p19759
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when you look at the table of the top 20 firms that are H1-B visa requestors, at least 15 of those are IT firms much of the hardware and software it's developed overseas by scientists and engineers who were educated here in the United States We're seeing a lot more activity around cyber-security, Was there any discussion or any interest from DOD or DHS as you undertook this review on the security things about what can be done to try to generate a more effective group of IT experts here in the U S I kind of like Dr. Land's approach of the green card being handed to them then, obviously, that's going to strengthen our security needs That underscores the need to get the best and brightest here and to keep them here
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D. IMMIGRATION REFORM KEY TO BOLSTERING CYBER-SECURITY DEFENSES:
| 2,311 | 64 | 721 | 407 | 8 | 134 | 0.019656 | 0.329238 |
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The reason, in part, is that the U.S. defense community has increasingly come to see cyberspace as a “domain of warfare” equivalent to air, land, sea, and space. The definition of cyberspace as its own domain of warfare helps in its own right to blur the online/offline, physical-space/cyberspace boundary. But thinking logically about the potential consequences of this framing leads to some disconcerting conclusions. If cyberspace is a domain of warfare, then it becomes possible to define “cyber attacks” (whatever those may be said to entail) as acts of war. But what happens if the U.S. is attacked in any of the other domains? It retaliates. But it usually does not respond only within the domain in which it was attacked. Rather, responses are typically “cross-domain responses”–i.e. a massive bombing on U.S. soil or vital U.S. interests abroad (e.g. think 9/11 or Pearl Harbor) might lead to air strikes against the attacker. Even more likely given a U.S. military “way of warfare” that emphasizes multidimensional, “joint” operations is a massive conventional (i.e. non-nuclear) response against the attacker in all domains (air, land, sea, space), simultaneously. The possibility of “kinetic action” in response to cyber attack, or as part of offensive U.S. cyber operations, is part of the current (2006) National Military Strategy for Cyberspace Operations [5]: Of course, the possibility that a cyber attack on the U.S. could lead to a U.S. nuclear reply constitutes possibly the ultimate in “cross-domain response.” And while this may seem far fetched, it has not been ruled out by U.S. defense policy makers and is, in fact, implied in current U.S. defense policy documents. From the National Military Strategy of the United States (2004): “The term WMD/E relates to a broad range of adversary capabilities that pose potentially devastating impacts. WMD/E includes chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and enhanced high explosive weapons as well as other, more asymmetrical ‘weapons’. They may rely more on disruptive impact than destructive kinetic effects. For example, cyber attacks on US commercial information systems or attacks against transportation networks may have a greater economic or psychological effect than a relatively small release of a lethal agent.” [6] The authors of a 2009 National Academies of Science report on cyberwarfare respond to this by saying, “Coupled with the declaratory policy on nuclear weapons described earlier, this statement implies that the United States will regard certain kinds of cyberattacks against the United States as being in the same category as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, and thus that a nuclear response to certain kinds of cyberattacks (namely, cyberattacks with devastating impacts) may be possible. It also sets a relevant scale–a cyberattack that has an impact larger than that associated with a relatively small release of a lethal agent is regarded with the same or greater seriousness.” [7]
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Sean Lawson (PhD, expert in information-age warfare) May 13, 2009. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from www.seanlawson.net/?p=477
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the U.S. defense community has increasingly come to see cyberspace as a “domain of warfare” If cyberspace is a domain of warfare, then it becomes possible to define “cyber attacks” as acts of war what happens if the U.S. is attacked in any of the other domains? It retaliates. Of course, the possibility that a cyber attack on the U.S. could lead to a U.S. nuclear reply constitutes possibly the ultimate in “cross-domain response.” And while this may seem far fetched, it has not been ruled out by U.S. defense policy makers and is, in fact, implied in current U.S. defense policy documents
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E. CYBER-ATTACKS RISK A NUCLEAR CONFLICT.
| 2,992 | 42 | 591 | 465 | 6 | 103 | 0.012903 | 0.221505 |
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Senator Jeff Flake (R., Ariz.) appeared on The O’Reilly Factor to support the so-called Corker amendment, which will add stronger border-security measures to the immigration-reform bill currently before the Senate. Flake stated that the amendment, anticipated this weekend, includes “doubling the border patrol, also 700 miles of new fencing; the Border Patrol actually will be so thick . . . there will be a border agent every thousand feet.” Asked whether the additional security provisions will win over fellow Republicans who oppose the bill, Flake predicted that the amendment would bring “anywhere between 8 and 13 or 14 new members along . . . I think we’ll be close [to 70 votes] with this amendment.” He added, “We will have sufficient votes, I think, with this stronger ‘border surge,’ if you will, to pass the bill.” The senator expects the House of Representatives to pass only the border-security part of the Senate proposal: “They will be unlikely to pass a big bill, but they’ll probably pass a border-security bill.” Flake also expects that the Senate will vote on the full legislation by the end of next week, and that a final version will reach President Obama’s desk by September.
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Will Allen (Staff writer) June 21, 2013. Retrieved June 24, 2013 from http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/351667/flake-we-will-have-sufficient-votes-pass-amended-immigration-reform-will-allen
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Flake predicted that the amendment would bring “anywhere between 8 and 13 or 14 new members along . . . I think we’ll be close [to 70 votes] with this amendment.” “We will have sufficient votes, I think, with this stronger ‘border surge,’ if you will, to pass the bill.” The senator expects the House of Representatives to pass only the border-security part of the Senate proposal Flake also expects that the Senate will vote on the full legislation by the end of next week, and that a final version will reach President Obama’s desk by September.
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Immigration reform will pass—support in both houses of Congress
| 1,199 | 63 | 547 | 199 | 9 | 97 | 0.045226 | 0.487437 |
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US President Barack Obama made an outspoken pitch for a Senate bill on comprehensive immigration reform on Tuesday, branding those opposed to it insincere about fixing a badly broken system.¶ ¶ Obama has gently pushed the bill from behind the scenes for months, fearing ¶ ¶ his open support would swell the ranks of conservatives who see the bill as offering amnesty to illegal immigrants and who are determined to kill it.¶ ¶ But as the legislation faced a crucial test vote in the Senate, Obama waded into the fray, leveraging the political capital on the issue he won during last year's election campaign, particularly among Hispanic voters.¶ ¶ "This week, the Senate will consider a common-sense, bipartisan bill that is the best chance we've had in years to fix our broken immigration system," Obama said at an event at the White House.¶ ¶ The president also sought to disarm conservative Republicans -- even some who support immigration reform -- who argue that the bill should not be passed without tough new border security measures.¶ ¶ "I know there's a lot of talk right now about border security so let me repeat: today illegal crossings are near their lowest level in decades. ¶ ¶ "If passed, the Senate bill, as currently written and as hitting the floor, would put in place the toughest border enforcement plan that America has ever seen. So nobody's taking border enforcement lightly."¶ ¶ Obama also took direct aim at the motives of lawmakers who are opposed to the bill, which was drawn up in the Senate by a bipartisan group of lawmakers known as the "Gang of Eight."¶ ¶ "There's no reason Congress can't get this done by the end of the summer," Obama said, but cast doubt on the motives of those wanting to block the bill.¶ ¶ "If you're not serious about it, if you think that a broken system is the best America can do, then I guess it makes sense to try to block it," he said.¶ ¶ "But if you're actually serious and sincere about fixing a broken system, this is the vehicle to do it, and now is the time to get it done. ¶ ¶ "There is no good reason to play procedural games or engage in obstruction just to block the best chance we've had in years to address this problem in a way that's fair to middle-class families, to business owners, to legal immigrants."¶ ¶ The bill, which would give around 12 million illegal immigrants an eventual path to citizenship, will need 60 votes to pass the 100-seat Senate, and then face an uncertain fate in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.¶ ¶ Since their defeat in the 2012 presidential elections, some Republicans have shifted position and now support reform in the hope of winning over Hispanic voters, whose clout is expected to grow in future elections.
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Hindustan Times June 11, 2013. Retrieved June 25, 2013 from http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/Americas/Obama-back-in-fray-on-immigration-reform/Article1-1074774.aspx
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US President Barack Obama made an outspoken pitch for a Senate bill on comprehensive immigration reform on Tuesday Obama has gently pushed the bill from behind the scenes for months But as the legislation faced a crucial test vote in the Senate, Obama waded into the fray, leveraging the political capital on the issue he won during last year's election campaign, particularly among Hispanic voters.¶ This week, the Senate will consider a common-sense, bipartisan bill that is the best chance we've had in years to fix our broken immigration system," Obama said
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Obama needs political capital to finish the immigration deal
| 2,734 | 60 | 561 | 480 | 9 | 92 | 0.01875 | 0.191667 |
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President Obama is expected to unveil a new nuclear policy initiative this week in Berlin. Whether he can make good on his first-term commitments to end outdated Cold War nuclear policies may depend on a firm presidential directive to the Pentagon rejecting any new missions for nuclear weapons — in particular, their use in response to cyberattacks.¶ The Pentagon’s Defense Science Board concluded this year that China and Russia could develop capabilities to launch an “existential cyber attack” against the United States — that is, an attack causing sufficient damage that our government would lose control of the country. “While the manifestation of a nuclear and cyber attack are very different,” the board concluded, “in the end, the existential impact to the United States is the same.”¶ Because it will be impossible to fully defend our systems against existential cyberthreats, the board argued, the United States must be prepared to threaten the use of nuclear weapons to deter cyberattacks. In other words: I’ll see your cyberwar and raise you a nuclear response.¶ Some would argue that Obama made clear in his 2010 Nuclear Posture Reviewthat the United States has adopted the objective of making deterrence of nuclear attacks the “sole purpose” of our nuclear weapons. Well, the board effectively reviewed the fine print and concluded that the Nuclear Posture Review was “essentially silent” on the relationship between U.S. nuclear weapons and cyberthreats, so connecting the two “is not precluded in the stated policy.”¶ As the board noted, cyberattacks can occur very quickly and without warning, requiring rapid decision-making by those responsible for protecting our country. Integrating the nuclear threat into the equation means making clear to any potential adversary that the United States is prepared to use nuclear weapons very early in response to a major cyberattack — and is maintaining nuclear forces on “prompt launch” status to do so.¶ Russia and China would certainly take note — and presumably follow suit. Moreover, if the United States, Russia and China adopted policies threatening an early nuclear response to cyberattacks, more countries would surely take the same approach.¶ It’s hard to see how this cyber-nuclear action-reaction dynamic would improve U.S. or global security. It’s more likely to lead to a new focus by Pentagon planners on generating an expanding list of cyber-related targets and the operational deployment of nuclear forces to strike those targets in minutes.
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Richard Clarke and Steven Andreasen June 14, 2013. “Cyberwar’s threat does not justify a new policy of nuclear deterrence” Retrieved June 25, 2013 from http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-06-14/opinions/39977598_1_nuclear-weapons-cyber-attack-cyberattacks
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The Pentagon’s Defense Science Board concluded this year that China and Russia could develop capabilities to launch an “existential cyber attack” against the United States — that is, an attack causing sufficient damage that our government would lose control of the country. “in the end, the existential impact to the United States is the same.”¶ Because it will be impossible to fully defend our systems against existential cyberthreats, the United States must be prepared to threaten the use of nuclear weapons to deter cyberattacks. In other words: I’ll see your cyberwar and raise you a nuclear response. the board effectively reviewed the fine print and concluded that the Nuclear Posture Review was “essentially silent” on the relationship between U.S. nuclear weapons and cyberthreats, so connecting the two “is not precluded in the stated policy.”¶ the United States is prepared to use nuclear weapons very early in response to a major cyberattack — and is maintaining nuclear forces on “prompt launch” status to do so.¶
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A cyber-attack on the US guarantees nuclear war
| 2,518 | 47 | 1,027 | 395 | 8 | 164 | 0.020253 | 0.41519 |
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On Monday night, the Senate moved forward a key provision predicted to make or break its ability to pass comprehensive immigration reform. The amendment, offered by Sens. Bob Corker (R-TN) and John Hoeven (R-ND) and known as the “border surge” amendment, would add 20,000 border patrol agents, require the completion of 700 miles of fencing, and add 18 unmanned surveillance aircraft along the southern border. It escaped a filibuster by a vote of 67 to 27, with several Republicans joining the Democratic majority. At a price tag of $30 billion to fund the agents alone, critics have said the amendment amounts to unnecessary spending — particularly given the fact that illegal immigration is at net zero, and the border is more secure than Republicans mandated it be in a 2007 reform effort. Still, the amendment enjoys broad support from progressives because it preserves one of the key aspects of the reform effort: a pathway to citizenship. Shortly before the vote on Monday, the Congressional Budget Office released updated statistics on the bill given the adoption of the Corker-Hoeven amendment. It found that the amendment “would reduce the net flow of unauthorized residents to the United States relative to” the underlying bill. It also found that it would reduce the deficit slightly less than the underlying bill, given the spending required to implement the new border measures, in the first decade. The vote on Monday night was for cloture — the ability to end debate on the amendment and move forward to voting for it. The Senate will now proceed to debate and then vote on the amendment itself. It is expected to pass.
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Annie Rose-Stresser (Staff writer) June 24 2013. Retrieved June 25, 2013 from http://thinkprogress.org/immigration/2013/06/24/2205851/corker-hoeven-passes/?mobile=nc
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the Senate moved forward a key provision predicted to make or break its ability to pass comprehensive immigration reform. . It escaped a filibuster by a vote of 67 to 27, with several Republicans joining the Democratic majority. The vote on Monday night was for cloture — the ability to end debate on the amendment and move forward to voting for it. The Senate will now proceed to debate and then vote on the amendment itself. It is expected to pass.
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Immigration reform will pass
| 1,635 | 29 | 450 | 273 | 4 | 81 | 0.014652 | 0.296703 |
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The trio of scandals facing President Obama have many in Washington asking whether this marks the beginning of the end for his legislative agenda.¶ An issue such as tax reform might be impeded considering that the Internal Revenue Service is at the center of one of the scandals. But an initiative that could emerge unscathed, or even strengthened, is immigration reform.¶ Before the scandals, immigration appeared to be the item on Obama's second-term agenda that seemed likeliest to pass through Congress. Deep fault lines have developed between both parties on issues like gun control, the deficit, and debt reduction. But on immigration, there is strong political incentive for GOP leaders in Washington to join in the effort to pass a bill. And the scandals haven't changed that.
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Jordan Fabian, (staff writer) May 17, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/immigration-reform-survive-president-obamas-scandals/story?id=19203730
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The trio of scandals facing President Obama have many in Washington asking whether this marks the beginning of the end for his legislative agenda.¶ An issue such as tax reform might be impeded But an initiative that could emerge unscathed, or even strengthened, is immigration reform.¶ Before the scandals, immigration appeared to be the item on Obama's second-term agenda that seemed likeliest to pass through Congress. But on immigration, there is strong political incentive for GOP leaders in Washington to join in the effort to pass a bill. And the scandals haven't changed that.
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Current scandals won’t hurt Obama’s ability to pass immigration reform.
| 784 | 71 | 583 | 127 | 10 | 94 | 0.07874 | 0.740157 |
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Although it's only been a few days since the scandals have overtaken the political atmosphere in Washington, developments on immigration have quietly chugged along. A bipartisan group in the House announced Thursday evening they have reached a deal in principle on a comprehensive bill after four years of on-again, off-again talks. And in just three markup sessions, the Senate Judiciary Committee has considered 82 of the 300 amendments offered by its members, over a quarter of the total.¶ Supporters and opponents of the bill believe that the immigration reform effort can make it through the scandal-obsessed environment in Washington.
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Jordan Fabian, (staff writer) May 17, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/immigration-reform-survive-president-obamas-scandals/story?id=19203730
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Although it's only been a few days since the scandals have overtaken the political atmosphere in Washington, developments on immigration have quietly chugged along. A bipartisan group in the House announced Thursday evening they have reached a deal in principle on a comprehensive bill Supporters and opponents of the bill believe that the immigration reform effort can make it through the scandal-obsessed environment in Washington.
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Despite scandals, immigration reform is chugging ahead.
| 640 | 55 | 433 | 99 | 7 | 65 | 0.070707 | 0.656566 |
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WASHINGTON, June 23 (UPI) -- The U.S. Senate will likely pass the immigration reform bill by a comfortable margin this week, a Republican senator said Sunday. Sen. Lindsay Graham, R-S.C., said on "Fox News Sunday" there were nearly 70 of the 100 votes in the Senate committed to passing the legislation, which faces stiff opposition from his party in the House of Representatives. "I've been dealing with it since 2005 and 2006, and this is a great solution for our economy and our national security," said Graham. "I'm very proud of this bill." Graham said the balancing act between border security and doing something about the army of immigrants who have settled in the country illegally was addressed in the measure as well as possible. He said whatever imperfections there might be, they were a better alternative than allowing the issue to fester. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, said he and other critics of the bill did not believe it put border security and the so-called pathway to citizenship on equal footing. "It's not tough on those who broke the law and it's not fair to those patiently who've been patiently waiting in line to come to this country legally," he said. Lee also predicted the bill would not prevent a new surge of illegal immigration; however Graham said the measure would head off such an influx.
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UPI June 23, 2013. United Press International retrieved 6/24/13 from http://www.istockanalyst.com/business/news/6472661/graham-says-senate-will-pass-immigration-reform
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The U.S. Senate will likely pass the immigration reform bill by a comfortable margin this week, a Republican senator said Sunday. there were nearly 70 of the 100 votes in the Senate committed to passing the legislation, whatever imperfections there might be, they were a better alternative than allowing the issue to fester.
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Immigration Reform will pass now---Republican support
| 1,318 | 53 | 324 | 226 | 6 | 53 | 0.026549 | 0.234513 |
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Washington (CNN) -- A compromise amendment intended to ease congressional passage of sweeping immigration legislation easily won Senate approval Wednesday.¶ The 69-29 vote set up a procedural motion immediately afterward to limit debate on the roughly 1,200-page bill, which would provide an eventual path to citizenship for millions of immigrants living illegally in the country.¶ While some further amendments still could be considered, the measure appeared headed to a final Senate vote by the end of the week after the procedural motion passed in a 67-31 vote.¶ Backers of the bill want the Democratic-led Senate to pass it with a solid majority to demonstrate growing bipartisan momentum as the measure heads to the GOP-controlled House of Representatives.¶ McCain: Immigration bill is strong¶ The compromise amendment by Republicans John Hoeven of North Dakota and Bob Corker of Tennessee would increase border security, a demand by conservative opponents of the immigration bill.¶ Justices could put an end to hard choice for gay couples¶ "I hope our colleagues in the House of Representatives will follow the Senate's lead, and work to pass bipartisan reform that both Democrats and Republicans can support," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, said before Wednesday's votes.¶ Conservative GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, an opponent of the Senate bill, conceded it’s likely to pass and called on House Republicans to make things right.¶ "I expect the House of Representatives to fix this miserable failure," Grassley said.¶ Republican leaders say the House will consider the issue in several smaller proposals instead of a comprehensive single measure, a process that would allow more debate and votes on specific provisions.¶ Earlier Wednesday, House Speaker John Boehner reiterated to GOP members that he opposes having the House take up any Senate immigration legislation, according to Rep. John Fleming.¶ Fleming, a Louisiana Republican, said Boehner told the weekly policy meeting that the House would work on its own immigration bills.¶ If enacted, the bill would create a path to citizenship for roughly 11 million undocumented immigrants while enhancing security along the border with Mexico.¶ Among other things, the compromise border security amendment would add 20,000 border agents, complete 700 miles of fence along the boundary with Mexico, and deploy $3.2 billion in technology upgrades similar to equipment used by U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.¶ Opinion: Protect rights of immigrant whistle-blowers¶ The proposal also includes stronger worker eligibility verification standards and border entry-exit controls.¶ Most undocumented immigrants would be eligible for permanent residency only after those five conditions have been met and verified by the Department of Homeland Security.¶ Hoeven and Corker introduced the compromise amendment last week, saying it incorporated proposals from other senators to try to fix a broken immigration system.¶ Grassley and other opponents argued the legislation amounts to an amnesty for immigrants who broke the law by living illegally in America. They argued the promises of increased border security before giving undocumented immigrants permanent residency would end up proving empty.¶ "It does nothing to change the legalization-first philosophy and does little more than offer false promises that the American people can no longer tolerate," Grassley said.¶ If eventually passed into law and signed by President Barack Obama, the bill would be the first major immigration reform since 1986, during the second Reagan administration.¶ Grassley conceded he voted for the 1986 measure, which also called for increased border security, and called his support then a mistake he regrets.¶ Farm bill failure portends problems for immigration in the House¶ The 2013 version was drafted by a Senate "Gang of Eight" composed of four Democrats and four Republicans motivated by political and policy needs.¶ Both parties concede the nation's immigration system is broken, and some Republicans believe that GOP refusal to work with Democrats on the matter would mean a repeat of the 2012 presidential election in which Obama won a strong majority of the Hispanic vote.¶ However, other Republicans fear that providing a path to legal status for millions of undocumented immigrants would bolster support for Democrats from the new voters.¶ Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, the most prominent Republican in the "Gang of Eight," told CNN's Dana Bash last week that he understands "why conservatives are upset."¶ "They've seen all these promises in the past that haven't been delivered," Rubio said. But the status quo on immigration "is hurting America," he added. "And if nothing passes, then this disaster that we have now, that's what's going to stay in place."¶
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Tim Cohen (staff writer) June 26, 2013. From CNN, retrieved June 27, 2013 from http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/26/politics/senate-immigration/index.html
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A compromise amendment intended to ease congressional passage of sweeping immigration legislation easily won Senate approval Wednesday. the measure appeared headed to a final Senate vote by the end of the week after the procedural motion passed in a 67-31 vote.¶ Backers of the bill want the Democratic-led Senate to pass it with a solid majority to demonstrate growing bipartisan momentum as the measure heads to the GOP-controlled House of Representatives. an opponent of the Senate bill, conceded it’s likely to pass and called on House Republicans to make things right.¶ "I expect the House of Representatives to fix this miserable failure,"
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Immigration reform will pass now
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But most importantly, the months since the election have seen a number of unexpected developments that indicate a bill may have more momentum than its backers initially hoped.¶ Everything comes with the caveat that it’s still early and there’s plenty that could go wrong in the months before a final draft of legislation, let alone a final vote. But the points in its favor are piling up too fast to ignore.¶ Here are five reasons that the prospects for immigration reform are looking a lot better than they were even a few weeks ago:¶ The House Is Actually Passing Stuff¶ It used to be assumed that Republican leaders would not schedule a vote on any bill that didn’t have the support of its own caucus, a group not exactly known for its warm relationship with undocumented immigrants. Barely two months into 2013, that assumption is already kaput. Since the election, Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has passed a tax deal, Sandy relief, and this week the Violence Against Women Act, all with large chunks of his own party voting nay. In doing so, he’s established a new de facto rule: when bills become a political albatross around the national GOP, he’ll pass them any way he can.¶ No issue falls under that category more than immigration reform, which Boehner, Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), and Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI), among other Republican leaders, have all expressed strong interest in passing in some form and soon. Should House conservatives stall reform while the Senate passes a bill with a strong bipartisan vote, there will be enormous pressure on Boehner to follow the route he took on the Violence Against Women Act and bring it to the floor.¶ “Boehner is ruling the House in a way we didn’t think was possible just three months ago,” Angela Kelley, vice president for immigration policy and advocacy at the liberal Center for American Progress, told TPM. “It’s a good precedent.”¶ Politicians Are Fighting Away From The Ledge¶ Republicans raised hell after a draft of the White House’s own immigration bill leaked last month. And no one was madder than Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), who called it a “half baked” bill that was “dead on arrival” in the House.¶ Bad news for immigration reform, right? Well, here’s the funny part. Rubio’s own Senate plan isn’t all that different in concept than the White House’s. And the source of the fiercest attacks on reform in general is border security, an area that Obama’s leaked plan would bolster. too. In fact, Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) — not exactly Obama’s best friends lately — emerged from a White House meeting singing the president’s praises on exactly that issue.¶ Few pro-reform activists seem to think that the Senate plan’s biggest difference with Obama’s bill, a “trigger” that woud only let undocumented immigrants apply for a green card and subsequently citizenship after border security measures took effect, is enough to threaten a bill. Instead, the argle-bargle over the White House draft had more to do with the politics of passing a bill, where it’s important for conservatives like Rubio to keep their distance from Obama, than any actual policy differences. Which brings us to the next green shoot for reform….¶ Immigration Opponents Are Keeping Quiet¶ So that thing Rubio is doing, where he rips the White House’s immigration plan then tells conservatives they should stick it to Obama by passing his own (mostly similar) version? It might actually be working.¶ Rubio’s been making the rounds with the same radio hosts, TV commentators, and columnists who helped kill immigration reform in 2007, using his popularity with the tea party right to make the case that his bipartisan Senate plan is neither “amnesty” nor a sop to Democrats. At the very least, he’s gotten a pretty respectful welcome, even from hosts like Rush Limbaugh who are still overtly anti-reform. And in some cases, he’s gotten something approaching begrudging support.¶ Meanwhile, Fox News is largely getting on the immigration reform train, with Rupert Murdoch, Sean Hannity, and Bill O’Reilly all saying nice things about legalizing undocumented immigrants. And so far there isn’t anyone close to the equivalent of Lou Dobbs during the last immigration debate, a widely watched commentator who makes killing a bill their raison d’etre.¶ “The screamers and haters are not dominating the debate they way they did last time,” Frank Sharry, executive director of the pro-reform America’s Voice Education Fund, told TPM. “Rubio has had a lot to do with that: he’s engaged the conservative press in a thoughtful way and it’s been beneficial.”¶ Labor And Business Aren’t Killing Each Other¶ Farm, hotel, and meatpacking companies are looking to immigration reform to give them a legal route to hire cheap foreign labor, something that reformers say needs to happen in order to prevent another buildup of undocumented immigrants. But unions are worried that they’ll end up using a guest worker program to undercut American workers with easily exploited scabs.¶ Senators working on a bill have bitter memories of watching their 2007 reform efforts go down in flames as labor groups opposed its guest worker program and business groups complained that it didn’t go far enough. This time they’ve asked the two sides to negotiate their own solution as a possible model, which is no easy task.¶ So far, however, they’ve actually made some progress: last month the AFL-CIO and Chamber of Commerce put out a statement of principles indicating a possible compromise built around a temporary visa for workers and an independent federal agency to track labor shortages so workers can tell whether industry’s claims of labor shortages are legit. Both sides warn that the details are far from complete, but as long as they keep talking, immigration reform’s chances for passage are vastly improved.¶ There’s A Path To A Path To Citizenship¶ Along with the guest worker fight, the next most contentious issue is a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Democrats and immigration activists say they’ll walk without a clear route to citizenship at some point, even if it’s not an immediate one (Obama’s plan would take at least 13 years to kick in). It’s less clear how the Senate’s plan works, but it does commit to a path to citizenship as well, including an expedited route for young undocumented immigrants and agricultural workers.¶ The House side is still a mystery, though. There’s a bipartisan group working on a bill that contains an odd mix of pro-reform progressives and border hawk conservatives and they’ve yet to leak any significant details about their plan. There’s a lot more skepticism about a path to citizenship on the House side, but key Republicans are leaving at least some wiggle room for them to adopt one. This is made somewhat easier by the fact “path to citizenship,” like “amnesty” is a vague, malleable term. Some Republicans, for example, say they’re against a “special path to citizenship,” but that they’d let undocumented immigrants “get in the back of the line” behind legal applicants for green cards and citizenship under a process that actually might give them a chance of being approved.¶ As for House leadership, top Republicans including Boehner, Cantor, and especially Ryan are going out of their way to encourage bipartisan talks, even if they haven’t pledged to support the results.¶ Add it all up and immigration reform, while nowhere near passage, is gliding along about as smoothly as supporters could hope so far.
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Sarlin, 3/4/2013 (Benjy, Washington Correspondent and editing the publication's DC blog, “5 Reasons Immigration Reform Might Actually Pass” http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/03/5-reasons-immigration-reform-looks-like-it-might-actually-pass.php sjg)
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the months since the election have seen a number of unexpected developments that indicate a bill may have more momentum than its backers initially hoped. five reasons prospects for immigration reform are looking a lot better The House Is Actually Passing Stuff John Boehner has passed a tax deal, Sandy relief, and this week the Violence Against Women Act, all with large chunks of his own party voting nay. In doing so, he’s established a new de facto rule: when bills become a political albatross around the national GOP, he’ll pass them any way he can. Politicians Are Fighting Away From The Ledge Rubio’s own Senate plan isn’t all that different in concept than the White House’s Immigration Opponents Are Keeping Quiet The screamers and haters are not dominating the debate they way they did last time Labor And Business Aren’t Killing Each Other Senators working on a bill have bitter memories of watching their 2007 reform efforts go down in flames This time they’ve asked the two sides to negotiate their own solution as a possible model, So far, however, they’ve actually made some progress: There’s A Path To A Path To Citizenship . Democrats and immigration activists say they’ll walk without a clear route to citizenship at some point, even if it’s not an immediate Add it all up and immigration reform, while nowhere near passage, is gliding along about as smoothly as supporters could hope so far.
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Immigration reform will pass now—multiple reasons:
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Coloradans are making their voices heard: The time has come for comprehensive immigration reform. From business leaders to labor groups and religious leaders to farmers, a diverse coalition that spans political parties and ideologies is demanding action.¶ And in the U.S. Senate, members of both political parties agree that we must reform our outdated immigration laws this year. We're working to bridge the partisan divide that far too often has stopped Congress from addressing our country's pressing issues.
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Mark Udall, 3/6/2013 (Colorado’s Senior Senator, “OPINION: We Can Pass Immigration Reform this Year,” http://www.pagosadailypost.com/news/22720/ OPINION:_We_Can_Pass_Immigration_Reform_this_Year/, Accessed 3/8/2013, rwg)
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The time has come for comprehensive immigration reform. From business leaders to labor groups and religious leaders to farmers, a diverse coalition that spans political parties and ideologies is demanding action And in the U.S. Senate, members of both political parties agree that we must reform our outdated immigration laws this year. We're working to bridge the partisan divide
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now—diverse coalition ensures:
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Two former Republican secretaries of Homeland Security joined current Secretary Janet Napolitano in calling for comprehensive immigration reform during a Politico Breakfast event on Monday morning and defended the Obama administration’s recent release of thousands of undocumented immigrants from detention. Last week, conservatives characterized the release of nonviolent immigrants ahead of the looming budget cuts that went into effect on Friday, as an effort to “politicize” the cuts or exert retribution against states like Arizona.¶ Speaking alongside former Secretaries Tom Ridge and Michael Chertoff at an event to mark the Department’s anniversary, Napolitano explained that the majority of the releases were the result of the normal “ebb and flow” of moving individuals in and out of detention. “Several hundred are related to sequester but it wasn’t thousands,” she said, adding that more immigrants will be released as budget cuts are implemented.¶ Napolitano’s predecessors, agreed, noting that the department is currently hamstrung by a broken immigration system and the chaotic budgetary environment. “The job of the Secretary of Homeland Security with regard to securing the borders would be a heck of a lot easier if the United States Congress would forget about partisanship and come up with a comprehensive immigration plan,” Ridge said, eliciting applause from the audience.
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Volsky, 3/4/2013 (Ignor, is the Managing Editor of ThinkProgress.org. Igor is co-author of Howard Dean’s Prescription for Real Healthcare Reform, “Top Bush Officials Stand With Obama On Immigration Policy” http://thinkprogress.org/special/2013/03/04/1665911/top-bush-officials-stand-with-obama-on-immigration-policy/?mobile=nc sjg)
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Two former Republican secretaries joined current Secretary Janet Napolitano in calling for comprehensive immigration reform “The job of the Secretary of Homeland Security with regard to securing the borders would be a heck of a lot easier if the United States Congress would forget about partisanship and come up with a comprehensive immigration plan,”
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(--) Key republicans are coming over
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President Barack Obama on Wednesday confidently promised that Congress will pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill, saying that a leaked copy of a White House proposal won't jeopardize the effort to overhaul the nation's immigration laws.¶ A draft White House immigration plan leaked to the press over the weekend, which frustrated some Republicans working on a bill, since Obama pledged to withhold his plan while lawmakers crafted their own. The White House claimed this week that the leak was unintentional and the president phoned GOP senators to reiterate that he supports the negotiations in Congress.¶ "It certainly did not jeopardize the entire process. The negotiations are still moving forward," Obama said during an interview with Univision San Antonio affiliate KWEX. "Information floats out of Washington all the time; that shouldn't prevent anybody from moving forward."
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JORDAN FABIAN, 2/20/2013 (staff writer, “President Obama: Immigration Leak Won't Block Reform,” http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/president-obama-immigration-leak-block-reform/story?id=18547909, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Obama on Wednesday confidently promised that Congress will pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill, the president phoned GOP senators to reiterate that he supports the negotiations in Congress.¶ " The negotiations are still moving forward,"
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(--) Comprehensive immigration reform will pass now:
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The National Immigration Forum, which advocates for immigration reform, said the White House proposal seemed “very moderate,” but should have gone further in overhauling the immigration system beyond citizenship and enforcement.¶ It also warned that a large increase in border patrol agents and immigration judges, as advocated in the president’s plan, “would be better used at ports of entry and reducing the backlog for legal immigrants.”¶ The burst of activity on Capitol Hill marks the best chance in years to craft legislation to tighten border security, improve employment verification and bring the huge illegal immigrant population out of legal limbo.
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Agence France-Presse, 2/17/2013 (“White House defends immigration reform proposal,” http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/02/17/white-house-defends-immigration-reform-proposal/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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The National Immigration Forum, which advocates for immigration reform, said the White House proposal seemed “very moderate,” The burst of activity on Capitol Hill marks the best chance in years to craft legislation to tighten border security, improve employment verification and bring the huge illegal immigrant population out of legal limbo.
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(--) Immigration reform stands best chance in years to pass:
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This isn’t a fail-safe border-security plan, but it is the bare minimum Republicans can accept — and it still may not be enough (we won’t know until lawmakers start voting). But its absence from the White House draft conspicuously informs Republicans that the White House is pushing legalization, and the fight to come will be on many fronts — one of them over the GOP’s ability to push enforcement while embracing but not delaying reform. The White House knows it has the upper hand politically and intends to dare Republicans to slow immigration reform over any issue. Informally, the White House has signaled to the Senate working group that it has until late March to finalize its bill or President Obama will spring his.
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Major Garrett, 2/21/2013 (staff writer, “The Hidden Obstacles to Legal Immigration Reform,” http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/all-powers/the-hidden-obstacles-to-legal-immigration-reform-20130219?page=1, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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The White House knows it has the upper hand politically and intends to dare Republicans to slow immigration reform over any issue.
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(--) Obama has the political upper hand on immigration reform now:
| 725 | 66 | 130 | 124 | 11 | 22 | 0.08871 | 0.177419 |
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This was not merely talk. In recent weeks, comprehensive immigration reform has been steadily approaching legislative reality. A bipartisan group of senators, four Democrats and four Republicans, was formed only a few weeks ago with the task of developing a framework for reform that could possibly develop into a bill. This group has spearheaded the effort to come up with solutions to the many problems of immigration in this country – namely, illegal immigration, undocumented workers, insecure borders, and problems with the process of legal immigration, along with other issues.¶ For once, this seems to be a movement that will receive much, if not total, support in Congress. Both Democrats and Republicans agree that immigration reform makes economic sense as immigrants are a key part of economic growth and development. Given the current economic uncertainty, immigration is a vital issue to address. The GOP also seeks to broaden its base, especially after the last presidential election where most of the Hispanic vote went to President Obama. Offering solutions to the immigration problem and presenting themselves as open to discussion will help develop support for the GOP platforms.
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Sarah Hutchinson, 2/16/2013 (staff writer, “Next Up in Congress: Immigration Reform?” http://www.houghtonstar.com/2013/02/16/next-up-in-congress-immigration-reform/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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In recent weeks, comprehensive immigration reform has been steadily approaching legislative reality. A bipartisan group of senators was formed only a few weeks ago This group has spearheaded the effort to come up with solutions to the many problems of immigration in this country For once, this seems to be a movement that will receive much, if not total, support in Congress. Both Democrats and Republicans agree that immigration reform makes economic sense The GOP also seeks to broaden its base Offering solutions to the immigration problem and presenting themselves as open to discussion will help develop support for the GOP platforms.
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(--) Momentum is behind comprehensive immigration reform now:
| 1,197 | 61 | 640 | 187 | 8 | 102 | 0.042781 | 0.545455 |
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In his State of the Union address, the president backed away from policy prescriptions and used GOP rhetoric on immigration. He—and the lawmakers key to legislative success—know now’s the time to push a reform deal through.¶ President Obama is at a moment of maximum political leverage. But for all the bipartisan framing of his State of the Union speech, the basic fact of divided government makes legislative progress difficult.¶ Immigration reform is the great exception. Six years after President Bush tried and failed to pass comprehensive immigration reform with odd-couple senators Ted Kennedy and John McCain, both parties have recognized that now is the time to get it done. Immigration reform is their self-interest as well as the national interest.
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Avlon 2/13/2013, John, senior columnist for Newsweek and The Daily Beast, CNN contributor, winner of the National Society of Newspaper Columnists’ award for best online column in 2012; “Obama’s 2012 State of the Union and the Immigration Reform Moment,” The Daily Beast http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/02/13/obama-s-2013-state-of-the-union-and-the-immigration-reform-moment.html
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the president and the lawmakers key to legislative success—know now’s the time to push deal through Obama is at a moment of maximum political leverage divided government makes legislative progress difficult Immigration reform is the great exception both parties have recognized that now is the time
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(--) Obama at his maximum political leverage on immigration now:
| 759 | 65 | 298 | 120 | 10 | 46 | 0.083333 | 0.383333 |
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Immigration reform seemed to have new life breathed into it almost overnight in 2013. With major Republican names such as Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) changing their previous positions to support a bi-partisan immigration overhaul effort that includes a road to citizenship, the reality of a comprehensive plan appears more likely than ever.
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Mark Kogan, 2/14/2013 (staff writer, “Immigration Reform 2013: A Closed-Doors Plan From Congress Is Coming Soon,” http://www.policymic.com/articles/26507/immigration -reform-2013-a-closed-doors-plan-from-congress-is-coming-soon, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Immigration reform seemed to have new life breathed into it almost overnight in 2013. With major Republican names such as Rubio changing their previous positions to support a bi-partisan immigration overhaul effort that includes a road to citizenship, the reality of a comprehensive plan appears more likely than ever.
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(--) Immigration reform more likely than ever:
| 341 | 46 | 318 | 52 | 7 | 49 | 0.134615 | 0.942308 |
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The president’s stamp of approval on any piece of legislation is anathema to many Republicans, particularly in the House. However, the same exact law helmed by Rubio or McCain has an infinitely better chance of securing passage. Endorsements of the need for immigration reform from both Republican responses following the State of the Union only acts as further proof that there is a deal in the works.
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Mark Kogan, 2/14/2013 (staff writer, “Immigration Reform 2013: A Closed-Doors Plan From Congress Is Coming Soon,” http://www.policymic.com/articles/26507/immigration -reform-2013-a-closed-doors-plan-from-congress-is-coming-soon, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Endorsements of the need for immigration reform from both Republican responses following the State of the Union only acts as further proof that there is a deal in the works.
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(--) Deal is in the works—immigration reform will pass now:
| 402 | 59 | 173 | 67 | 10 | 30 | 0.149254 | 0.447761 |
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Dare to hope for comprehensive immigration reform. But keep the pressure on Congress because plenty of barriers remain and the clock is ticking on political deadlines.¶ The remarkable new tone that makes reform look possible was on display at Wednesday’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearing. Yes, there were protesters calling for an end to deportations. Yes, there were differences about key issues.¶ But there was also minimal grandstanding and a whole lot of talk about bipartisan efforts to work together.
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Arizona Republic, 2/14/2013 (“Immigration reform barriers crumbling,” http://www.azcentral.com/opinions/articles/20130213immigration-reform-barriers-crumbling.html, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Dare to hope for comprehensive immigration reform. But keep the pressure on Congress because plenty of barriers remain and the clock is ticking on political deadlines The remarkable new tone that makes reform look possible was on display at Wednesday’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearing there was also minimal grandstanding and a whole lot of talk about bipartisan efforts to work together.
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(--) Immigration reform possible now—new tone makes it so:
| 508 | 58 | 391 | 79 | 9 | 61 | 0.113924 | 0.772152 |
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The senators in turn told the president "they remain confident that a bipartisan bill could be agreed to in the coming weeks," CNN said citing an aide to one of the Democratic senators¶ "The Senators said the bipartisan negotiations were progressing well and that both sides were making progress and working together in good faith," the aide was quoted as saying.¶ In January when the bipartisan group of senators was outlining its immigration framework the White House was telling senators and advocates that they were writing their own immigration bill, CNN said citing Democratic sources.¶ Democrats then urged the president not to release his own bill, fearing such a move would stymie the delicate negotiations taking place among lawmakers in both parties, it said.¶ In his State of the Union address Tuesday, Obama called on Congress to send him a comprehensive immigration reform package, saying both sides agree on what measures need to be included to make the system work better.
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Indo-Asian News Service 2/14/2013, “If Congress fails to act on immigration, I will: Obama,” Lexis
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senators told the president "they remain confident that a bipartisan bill could be agreed to in the coming weeks negotiations were progressing well and both sides were making progress and working together in good faith
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(--) Immigration reform likely now in the upcoming weeks:
| 988 | 57 | 218 | 161 | 9 | 35 | 0.055901 | 0.217391 |
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With notable speed after the Nov. 6 presidential election, a number of Republican politicians and opinions makers — from House Speaker John A. Boehner to the talk show host Sean Hannity — altered their positions on immigration and expressed a new openness to comprehensive reform.¶ Since then, the push to overhaul the nation’s immigration system appears to have sustained momentum. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll found a jump in public approval of President Obama’s handling of immigration, and most recent polls have found a majority of Americans support providing immigrants who have come here illegally a pathway to United States citizenship.¶ So, has the shift on immigration among some — but not all — Republican legislators, strategists and media personalities filtered down to rank-and-file Republicans?¶ The polling evidence — with a few significant caveats — says “possibly, yes.” There are signs of an uptick in Republican support for a pathway to citizenship, or at least a conditional pathway to citizenship.¶ First, the caveats. Tracking opinions on immigration policy over time is tricky because each pollster asks different questions with different options, making for apples-to-oranges comparisons. In addition, when narrowing the focus to self-identified Republicans and Republican leaners, small sample sizes and large margin of sampling errors become a problem. A typical national survey includes about 1,000 respondents, making the subsample of Republicans pretty small, usually around 200 to 300.¶ But keeping those disclaimers in mind, the most recent polls on immigration suggest an increase in the percentage of Republicans who favor immigration reform that includes a route to United States citizenship.¶ On average, the share of Republicans who favor providing undocumented immigrants with a path to citizenship is 48 percent among the six national polls released so far in 2013 and included in the PollingReport.com database. (The release of a CNN poll conducted Jan. 14-15 did not provide a breakdown by political party and is not included in the average).¶ Among the six previous polls that asked about a pathway to citizenship and released results by party identification, an average of only 38 percent of Republicans favored providing a path to citizenship.¶ Question wording has an effect here. Two of the polls that found the highest level of Republican support emphasized the requirements illegal immigrants might have to meet to become citizens. Conservative voters might be more likely to support a path to citizenship if it involves certain qualifications.¶ For instance, a Fox News poll conducted Jan. 15-17 among registered voters found that 56 percent of Republicans said the government should “allow illegal immigrants to remain in the country and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship, but only if they meet certain requirements like paying back taxes, learning English, and passing a background check.”¶ And a Gallup poll released this week found that 59 percent of Republicans would vote for “a law that would allow undocumented immigrants living in the United States the chance to become legal residents or citizens if they meet certain requirements.”¶ On the other hand, a CBS News poll of adults conducted Jan. 24-27 found that only 35 percent of Republicans said illegal immigrants currently working in the country “should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship.” (CBS found that 25 percent of Republicans said illegal immigrants should be able to stay as guest workers and 36 percent said they should be required to leave the United States).¶ The apples-to-apples comparisons we have are more mixed: Republican support in the mid-January AP/GfK poll jumped to 53 percent from 31 percent in 2010. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll moved to 42 percent Republican support for a path to citizenship from 37 percent in November 2012 (that’s inside the margin of sampling error). The CBS News poll did not move at all, finding 35 percent Republican support in both its December 2012 and late January 2013 surveys. And Quinnipiac polls, released on Thursday and in early December 2012, both found roughly 40 percent of registered Republicans support a path to citizenship and just more than 10 percent support legal status without citizenship.¶ An uptick in Republican support for a pathway to citizenship could be statistical noise. And even if it is real, it could reverse itself. Some political science research suggests that anti-immigrant attitudes increase when immigration is in the news.¶ But there are reasons to think that immigration, over all, has become less of a hot-button issue. A Pew study found that the number of illegal immigrants living in the United States has dropped since the 2007 push for change. Another Pew survey found that only 44 percent of Republicans see dealing with immigration as a top priority. That’s down from previous peaks of 69 percent in 2007 and 61 percent in 2011.¶ Further polling is needed before a more concrete picture of Republican attitudes emerges. But if Republican voters have warmed to providing a conditional path to citizenship, it could increase the likelihood of an overhaul becoming law by freeing House Republicans, in particular, to back some kind of reform.
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Cohen 2/8/13 (Micah Cohen, New York Times, “Signs of a Shift on Immigration Among G.O.P. Rank-and-File,” http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/08/signs-of-a-shift-on-immigration-among-g-o-p-rank-and-file/)
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With notable speed after the election a number of Republican politicians and opinions maker altered their positions on immigration and expressed a new openness Since then, the push to overhaul the nation’s immigration system appears to have sustained momentum. Republicans who favor immigration reform that includes a route to citizenship On average, the share of Republicans is 48 percent if Republican voters have warmed , it could increase the likelihood of an overhaul becoming law by freeing House Republicans, in particular, to back some kind of reform
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(--) GOP electoral concerns have generated momentum for passage – Republican rank and file is shifting opinion
| 5,317 | 110 | 559 | 842 | 17 | 87 | 0.02019 | 0.103325 |
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Of all the major items on Mr. Obama's wish list, immigration reform is the one that may stand the best chance of legislative success - and even then, the outcome is far from certain. For the first time in many years, there is an appetite on both sides of the aisle for far-reaching legislation. ¶ Mr. Obama ticked off the pieces of the puzzle: stronger border security, less bureaucracy, more visas for skilled workers and what he termed a "responsible pathway to earned citizenship" for undocumented immigrants currently in the country. "We know what needs to be done," he said. "Send me a comprehensive immigration reform bill in the next few months, and I will sign it right away."
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Slater 2/14/2013, Joanna, “Six Takeaways From The State of the Union,” The Globe and Mail (Canada), Lexis
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Of all the major items on Mr. Obama's wish list, immigration reform is the one that may stand the best chance of legislative success the outcome is far from certain For the first time in many years, there is an appetite on both sides of the aisle for far-reaching legislation Send me a comprehensive immigration reform bill and I will sign it
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Obama’s best chance at success is immigration reform, but lots of work left
| 684 | 75 | 342 | 119 | 13 | 62 | 0.109244 | 0.521008 |
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A bipartisan House group working on immigration is “on the cusp” of an agreement, a senior House Democrat participating in the talks said Friday. Rep. Xavier Becerra (Calif.), the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, told reporters that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle were being pragmatic about the issue, and that he was hopeful the Senate would also deliver on legislation soon. “The reality is that we are on the cusp of actually having an opportunity to put forward a bipartisan proposal in the House of Representatives,” Becerra said at a news conference capping off the House Democrats’ annual retreat “I am optimistic that the conversations will bear fruit. But make no mistake, there are voices out there that would love nothing more than to destroy ... the progress.” Becerra would not say whether the group hoped to release legislation next week in conjunction with President Obama's State of the Union address, which had been a target for the coalition. He said only that conversations are continuing. The bipartisan House group also includes Reps. John Carter (R-Texas), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Luis Gutiérrez (D-Ill.), Sam Johnson (R-Texas) and Zoe Lofgren (Calif.). A Senate group that includes Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), John McCain (R-Ariz.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) has already announced immigration reform principles, and is hoping to release legislation in March. Obama stressed during his appearance before House Democrats that he was committed to making changes to both immigration and gun control policies. “Now, is the time,” Obama said Thursday. “I recognize that the politics aren’t always easy.” House Democratic leaders also stressed at their wrap-up news conference that they would not take their eyes off the economy and deficits while working on guns and immigration. “That subject permeated our entire discussion,” said House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). “The global economic challenges that we all face, and the leadership role of America.”
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The Hill 2/8/13 House group 'on the cusp' of deal on immigration reform http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/281987-house-group-on-the-cusp-of-deal-on-immigration-reform
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A bipartisan House group working on immigration is “on the cusp” of an agreement lawmakers on both sides of the aisle were being pragmatic about the issue, and that he was hopeful the Senate would also deliver on legislation soon. “The reality is that we are on the cusp of actually having an opportunity to put forward a bipartisan proposal I am optimistic that the conversations will bear fruit But make no mistake, there are voices out there that would love nothing more than to destroy ... the progress.”
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(--) On the cusp of an agreement now:
| 2,019 | 38 | 508 | 316 | 8 | 89 | 0.025316 | 0.281646 |
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The election results are in, the tea leaves have been read, and the two major political parties have found themselves surprisingly in agreement on an issue of national concern, comprehensive immigration reform.¶ At the time of this writing, both the U.S. Senate and President Obama have broadly outlined their plans for immigration reform while a bipartisan panel of the Republican-led House of Representatives is working behind closed doors on its own draft with the expectation that it will be released in days.
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Frey 2/9/2013, Mark, immigration law attorney, “2013: The Year of Comprehensive Immigration Reform,” Asian American Press, http://aapress.com/government/immigration/2013-the-year-of-comprehensive-immigration-reform/
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the two major parties have found themselves surprisingly in agreement on comprehensive immigration reform the Senate and Obama have broadly outlined their plans while a bipartisan panel of Representatives is working on its own draft
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(--) Broad agreement over comprehensive immigration reform now
| 513 | 62 | 232 | 82 | 8 | 35 | 0.097561 | 0.426829 |
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Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) is voicing confidence in the prospects for immigration reform in the House, saying that a bipartisan group of lawmakers “basically [has] an agreement” after more than three years of secret talks.
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Russell Berman, 01/26/13 (“Boehner says bipartisan group 'basically' has deal on immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/homenews/house/279445-boehner-confidence-bipartisan-immigration-bill-will-be-approved-this-congress, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Boehner is voicing confidence in the prospects for immigration reform in the House, saying that a bipartisan group of lawmakers “basically [has] an agreement” after more than three years of secret talks.
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now—the deal is in place:
| 225 | 59 | 203 | 35 | 10 | 32 | 0.285714 | 0.914286 |
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Obama is preparing to launch a major push for comprehensive immigration reform with a speech in Las Vegas next week. Much of the spotlight has focused on the Senate, where a bipartisan group is reportedly close to announcing an agreement on basic principles for an overhaul of the system. That group now includes Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), a potential presidential contender who laid out his principles for reform in the Wall Street Journal earlier this month.
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Russell Berman, 01/26/13 (“Boehner says bipartisan group 'basically' has deal on immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/homenews/house/279445-boehner-confidence-bipartisan-immigration-bill-will-be-approved-this-congress, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Obama is preparing to launch a major push for comprehensive immigration reform with a speech in Las Vegas next week. Much of the spotlight has focused on the Senate, where a bipartisan group is reportedly close to announcing an agreement on basic principles for an overhaul of the system
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(--) Major push for immigration reform happening now:
| 460 | 53 | 287 | 76 | 8 | 49 | 0.105263 | 0.644737 |
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While some differences between the White House and Senate plans exist, the president said that on the whole, they are very similar since they both include an earned path to citizenship, enhanced border security measures, and tougher crackdowns on busineses that hire undocumented immigrants.¶ "I think that most of the proposals being talked about by Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the House are roughly in the same area that I am," he said.
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JORDAN FABIAN, 2/20/2013 (staff writer, “President Obama: Immigration Leak Won't Block Reform,” http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/president-obama-immigration-leak-block-reform/story?id=18547909, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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While some differences between the White House and Senate plans exist, the president said that on the whole, they are very similar since they both include an earned path to citizenship, I think that most of the proposals being talked about by Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and the House are roughly in the same area that I am
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(--) President and Congress not far away on immigration reform now:
| 454 | 67 | 335 | 75 | 11 | 60 | 0.146667 | 0.8 |
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The overhaul of our immigration laws is likely to be the first significant bipartisan legislation to break the deadlock that has characterized Congressional politics in recent years. But how smart will reform be?¶ Republicans took a beating in the November elections from two emerging language minorities with large immigrant populations, Latinos and Asians, who turned out in greater numbers than ever.¶ Republican interest in mending fences with Latinos was evident when Florida's Sen. Marco Rubio was tapped to give the Republican response to the president's State of the Union speech.¶ At least some members of Congress from both sides of the aisle have now come out in favor of providing an expedited path to citizenship for children brought to this country by their parents in violation of the law. Support for a version of the DREAM Act represents a reversal for Republicans, who have repeatedly rejected it.
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Robert Brischetto, 2/14/2013 (former executive director of the Southwest Voter Research Institute, “Congress should pass smart immigration reform,” http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/commentary/article/Congress-should-pass-smart-immigration-reform-4279975.php, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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The overhaul of our immigration laws is likely to be the first significant bipartisan legislation to break the deadlock that has characterized Congressional politics in recent years Republicans took a beating in the November elections Republican interest in mending fences with Latinos was evident when Rubio was tapped to give the Republican response to the State of the Union At least some members of Congress from both sides of the aisle have now come out in favor of providing an expedited path to citizenship for children brought to this country by their parents
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now—will break the deadlock:
| 915 | 62 | 567 | 147 | 9 | 93 | 0.061224 | 0.632653 |
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Although conservatives howled about administrative overreach, Obama's gamble paid off, as the president won more than 70 percent of the Hispanic vote at the polls – a margin that has fueled the drive for immigration reform this year, as GOP leaders are anxious to avoid a similar divide in 2016.
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Mike Lillis, 2/16/2013 (staff writer, “Dems: Obama can act unilaterally on immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/administration/283583-dems-recognize-that-obama-can-act-unilaterally-on-immigration-reform, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Although conservatives howled about administrative overreach, Obama's gamble paid off, as the president won more than 70 percent of the Hispanic vote at the polls – a margin that has fueled the drive for immigration reform this year
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(--) GOP losses at the polls fueling support for immigration reform:
| 295 | 68 | 232 | 50 | 11 | 38 | 0.22 | 0.76 |
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Conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives have laid bare the challenges facing the prospects for comprehensive immigration reform this year, suggesting they will not be able to support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.¶ However, some Republicans, apparently conscious that they are swimming against the demographic tide, are moderating their tone in an effort to appeal to the Hispanic voters who turned away from the party in droves last year.¶ President Barack Obama on Tuesday tried to build momentum for broad reforms encompassing tougher border security, a pathway to citizenship and more visas for highly skilled workers.¶ In meetings at the White House he told business leaders including Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs, Marissa Mayer of Yahoo and Coca-Cola’s Muhtar Kent that immigration reform was crucial for economic growth and competitiveness.¶ But business has long been supportive of reform. Winning the backing of Republicans, who control the House and can stymie any legislation, will be more difficult, given the widespread resistance among conservatives to “rewarding” people who came into the country illegally.¶ A Gallup poll on Tuesday found widespread support for the key pillars of the reform plan put forward by Mr Obama, which itself is similar to a bipartisan blueprint being promoted by a gang of eight senators.¶ More than seven in 10 would vote for a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants now living in the US, the survey found.¶ But Bob Goodlatte, a Virginia Republican and chairman of the House judiciary committee, asked during the first House hearing on immigration reform whether there was a “middle ground” between citizenship and deportation.¶ “Are there options to consider between the extremes of mass deportation and pathway to citizenship?” he asked Julian Castro, mayor of the Texas city of San Antonio, who shot to fame last year when he gave the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention.¶ “I do believe that a pathway to citizenship should be the option that Congress selects – I don’t see that as an extreme option,” Mr Castro responded.¶ But Trey Gowdy, the South Carolina representative who was one of 41 House members to sign the “Prohibiting Back-door Amnesty Act” last year to counteract Mr Obama’s move to give young illegal immigrants a reprieve from deportation, accused Democrats of refusing to compromise.¶ Still, the very fact that the hearing took place was viewed as a positive step, given the hard line on immigration taken by Mr Goodlatte’s predecessor, Texas Republican Lamar Smith.¶ "We must balance respect for the rule of law and respect for those waiting to enter this country legally, with care for the people and families, most of whom just want to make a better life and contribute to America."¶ There are also signs of progress.¶ A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House is crafting an immigration reform plan behind the scenes, and Eric Cantor, the number two Republican in the House and one of its most conservative members, on Tuesday said that moves towards immigration reform, including those promoted by Republican senator Marco Rubio, were heading “in the right direction”.¶ “While we are a nation that allows anyone to start anew, we are also a nation of laws, and that’s what makes tackling the issue of immigration reform so difficult,” Mr Cantor said in an address to the conservative American Enterprise Institute.¶ “In looking to solve this problem soon, we must balance respect for the rule of law and respect for those waiting to enter this country legally, with care for the people and families, most of whom just want to make a better life and contribute to America,” he said.¶ Immigration reform is at the top of the president’s second-term legislative agenda and is expected to be the centrepiece of his state of the union address next week.
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Fifield 2/5 (Anna, “Republicans soften tone on immigration”, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f6e10720-6fb6-11e2-8785-00144feab49a.html#axzz2K9hMM4pj, CMR)
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Republicans are moderating their tone in an effort to appeal to Hispanic voters Obama tried to build momentum for broad reforms Winning Republicans will be difficult There are signs of progress A bipartisan group is crafting an immigration reform plan Cantor said moves were heading “in the right direction” Immigration is at the top of the president’s legislative agenda and is expected to be the centrepiece of his state of the union address
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(--) Comprehensive immigration reform is top priority and will pass – Obama’s push building momentum
| 3,889 | 101 | 443 | 631 | 15 | 73 | 0.023772 | 0.115689 |
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U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to make immigration reform a priority in his State of the Union Address. But already, talk of tackling this controversial issue is gaining momentum.¶ There are an estimated 11-million illegal immigrants in the United States with more still hoping to cross the border.¶ Claudia Hernandez came here as a child, and like many in her situation, she feels she belongs in the U.S.¶ “I have been here more than half of my life, and I respect the United States. This is my country,” she said.¶ Only days into his second term, President Obama began the push for change.¶ “The time has come for common-sense, comprehensive immigration reform,” he stated. “The time is now.”¶ Already, Congress has begun to hold hearings.¶ And a bipartisan group of senators, including former Republican presidential candidate John McCain, is pushing ahead with a plan of its own.¶ “We have been too content for too long to allow individuals to mow our lawn, serve us food, clean our homes and even watch our children while not affording them any of the benefits that make our country so great,” McCain said.¶ The bi-partisan plan calls for tighter border controls as well as a path to citizenship, something President Obama insists upon.¶ That worries Jim Gilchrist. He founded the Minuteman Project, a citizen’s group that helps guard the border.¶ “If we are going to grant amnesty to 15 to 30-million people, who are here illegally now, we are going to be granting amnesty to 300 million,” he added. “Who will follow them over the next several decades.”¶ Other activists and lawmakers say proposals to secure the borders don’t go far enough – even though the United States spends more money on immigration enforcement than on all other federal law enforcement activities combined.¶ In the meantime, the pressure is on – both President Obama and Congress.¶ Janet Murguia heads La Raza, the largest U.S. Hispanic civil rights and advocacy group. “The reality is that Hispanic and Latin voters went to the polls on election day with the economy on their minds, but with immigration reform in their hearts,” she said.¶ With the State of the Union address as a platform, advocates on all sides of the issue are hoping something gets done, all too aware such hopes have been dashed before.
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Seldin 2/7 (Jeff, “US Battle Over Immigration Reform Gathers Steam”, Voice of America, http://www.eurasiareview.com/07022013-us-battle-over-immigration-reform-gathers-steam/, CMR)
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Obama is expected to make immigration reform a priority in his State of the Union already, talk of tackling this controversial issue is gaining momentum Only days into his second term, President Obama began the push for change Already, Congress has begun to hold hearings The bi-partisan plan calls for tighter border controls as well as a path to citizenship, something President Obama insists upon With the State of the Union address as a platform, advocates on all sides of the issue are hoping something gets done
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(--) Will pass – Obama’s push makes it priority and ensures momentum
| 2,298 | 70 | 517 | 388 | 12 | 87 | 0.030928 | 0.224227 |
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Some Republicans, but not all. Given the extensive overlap between the "principles" laid out by a bipartisan group of senators and those offered by President Barack Obama, I believe there is a strong possibility that immigration reform can be accomplished within the next few months. But it still won't be easy.¶ Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., the key member of the Senate's pro-reform "Gang of Eight," is being pilloried from the right for having the temerity to face economic, sociological and political reality.¶ Sen. David Vitter, R-La., called Rubio "amazingly naive on this issue" and also "nuts." Some of the conservative commentariat has been less reserved.¶ National Review editor Rich Lowry called the Senate plan a "scam" that is likely to become "a monument to bad faith." My colleague Charles Krauthammer called the proposal "highly misleading" and complained that it would lead to "instant legalization" for those here without papers. Rush Limbaugh has vowed to fight the measure with all he's got -- but predicted that he and other opponents would ultimately lose.¶ Many establishment figures in the party accept that the GOP cannot thrive, and perhaps cannot even survive, if the nation's biggest minority group becomes a permanent part of the Democratic Party coalition. They understand Rubio's analysis that immigration is a "threshold" issue for Latino voters -- that if Republicans are seen as uncompromising and even hostile on this issue, many Latinos will not even give the party a hearing on the rest of its philosophy and agenda. They recognize that undocumented workers are integral participants in the nation's economic life.¶ The central task of immigration reform is the most controversial: designing some sort of legal status for the 11 million.¶ Critics on the right complain that this is unfair to would-be immigrants who are "waiting in line" to come into the country by following the rules. Some would have to wait years; many, probably most, would never make it in.¶ Truly comprehensive reform would include designing a viable legal pathway for those who want to come here and contribute their ambition, determination and skills. No such pathway exists now -- and none existed for the millions who decided to enter the country without papers or overstay their visas.¶ As far as I can tell, there is little meaningful difference between the Gang of Eight's plan and Obama's plan. You will hear lots of noise about border security and enforcement. Feel free to pay no attention.¶ Pro- and anti-reform Republicans will both agree that the Obama administration is somehow weak on enforcement. This is a laughable fiction; border security is much tougher under Obama than under his predecessors, and deportations have soared. But perhaps a loud fight over enforcement will satisfy the Republican base and make agreement on real issues possible.¶ Republicans are eager to talk about some kind of temporary-worker program to accommodate those who come here -- mostly from Mexico and Central America -- with the intention of working for a time and then returning to their home countries. Obama's framework for reform does not include a guest-worker provision, but the White House has indicated a willingness to look at the possibility.¶ Obama could have taken a different tack. He could have written detailed proposed legislation rather than laying out broad principles, and in that bill he could have specified a short, direct path to full citizenship for the undocumented -- something Republicans could not conceivably accept.¶ This would have further damaged the GOP, since Democrats would be able to tell Latino voters, "See? Once again the Republicans killed immigration reform. We're the ones who are on your side. Stick with us."¶ Instead, Obama and a group of influential senators of both parties will try to work together to bring 11 million people out of the shadows. Our government is tackling a big problem and may actually solve it. Imagine that.
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Robinson 2/5 (Eugene, WaPo Correspondent, “Eugene Robinson: Immigration reform likely”, http://www.goerie.com/article/20130206/OPINION09/302069994/Eugene-Robinson%3A-Immigration-reform-likely, CMR)
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Given the extensive overlap between the "principles" laid out by a bipartisan group of senators and those by Obama there is a strong possibility immigration reform can be accomplished within the next few months But it still won't be easy there is little meaningful difference between the Gang of Eight's plan and Obama's plan. You will hear lots of noise about border security and enforcement. Feel free to pay no attention border security is much tougher under Obama than under his predecessors, and deportations have soared a loud fight over enforcement will satisfy the Republican base and make agreement on real issues possible Obama and a group of influential senators of both parties will try to work together Our government is tackling a big problem and may actually solve it
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(--) Will pass quickly, Obama and GOP goals are aligned despite political blustering – but it’s not guaranteed
| 3,981 | 111 | 782 | 644 | 18 | 130 | 0.02795 | 0.201863 |
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(Reuters) - President Barack Obama will seek to build momentum for immigration reform this week ahead of his State of the Union address, which is expected to challenge Republicans to take up an overhaul amid an increasingly contentious debate in Washington.¶ Obama plans to hold a series of White House meetings with corporate chief executives, labor leaders and progressives on Tuesday to lobby for their support, and he has dispatched Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano to the Southwest to tout the administration's border security efforts.¶ The flurry of activity, including new moves in Congress, comes amid disagreement between the Democratic president and many Republicans over the question of citizenship for illegal immigrants, an obstacle that could make it hard to reach a final deal on sweeping legislation.¶ House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, the second-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives, will address immigration reform and other issues in a speech on Tuesday to the conservative American Enterprise Institute.¶ In excerpts to that speech, Cantor walked a fine line on future citizenship for those in the United States illegally. "We must balance respect for the rule of law and respect for those waiting to enter this country legally, with care for people and families, most of whom just want to make a better life and contribute to America," he said.¶ Obama is expected to use his February 12 State of the Union speech to Congress - a major annual address by the president in which he lays out his legislative priorities for the year - to keep the heat on Republicans, who appear more willing to accept an immigration overhaul after they were chastened by Latino voters' rejection in the November election.¶ But differences have emerged since Obama and a bipartisan Senate working "group of eight" rolled out their proposals last week aimed at the biggest U.S. immigration revamp in decades.¶ Obama wants to give America's 11 million illegal immigrants a clear process to achieve citizenship, including payment of fines, criminal background checks and going to the "back of the line" behind legal applicants. He has vowed to introduce his own bill if Congress fails to act in a timely fashion.¶ But top Republicans want to defer citizenship until the county's borders are deemed more secure - a linkage that Obama and most of his fellow Democrats would find hard to accept.¶ Obama's aides are confident the president has enough leverage to avoid giving ground. They believe that if the reform effort fails in Congress, voters are more likely to blame the Republicans and they would suffer in the 2014 midterm congressional elections.
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Spetalnick 2/4 (Matt, and Richard Cowan, “Obama to lobby for immigration reform amid citizenship dispute”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/05/us-usa-immigration-idUSBRE9130V620130205, CMR)
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Obama will seek to build momentum for immigration reform ahead of his State of the Union which is expected to challenge Republicans to take up an overhaul Obama plans to hold a series of meetings to lobby for support Obama is expected to use his State of the Union to keep the heat on Republicans who appear more willing to accept immigration But differences have emerged Obama's aides are confident the president has enough leverage to avoid giving ground
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(--) Will pass – Obama’s push is building momentum for compromise – maintaining leverage is key
| 2,675 | 96 | 456 | 432 | 16 | 79 | 0.037037 | 0.18287 |
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Fast-forward six years, and the right-wing talk-radio crowd is weakened. The evangelical, law-enforcement, and business communities are now united behind comprehensive immigration reform. Responsible Republicans know they cannot afford to alienate Hispanics any longer. And the presence of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio—a onetime Jeb Bush protégé—is an essential addition to the coalition. “Senator Rubio, a Tea Party choice, is well respected and well liked and trusted,” adds Wehner. “With him as the lead in these negotiations, conservatives are more willing to consider immigration reform than in the past. You’re not seeing the explosion of opposition now that we saw in 2007. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen; but for now, it hasn’t.”¶ Long story short: it’s much easier for Marco Rubio to make the case for the Senate’s bipartisan path to citizenship than to argue on behalf of President Obama’s bill, which would be a nonstarter to much of the base. And so the president wisely held off from offering his specific policy vision in the much-hyped Las Vegas speech earlier this week. It’s not unlike the reason Harry Truman gave for naming the postwar European-aid bill after his secretary of state, George Marshall: “Anything that is sent up to the Senate and House with my name on it will quiver a couple of times and then turn over and die.”¶ Unlike Truman and George W. Bush, however, Obama is pushing for this bill at a time of maximum political capital and national popularity, with polls showing his approval rating at nearing 60 percent.¶ To truly depolarize this policy debate, it’s tempting to imagine Obama enlisting President Bush to make the sale to the nation. But W. has made a determined effort to stay out of political and policy debates since leaving 1600. The first post-election policy event of the Bush Center was a conference on immigration reform, in which the former president let himself wax poetic on his unfinished legacy: “America can be a lawful society and a welcoming society at the same time,” he said. “As our nation debates the proper course of action relating to immigration, I hope we do so with a benevolent spirit and keep in mind the spirit of immigrants.”¶ A lead researcher the Bush Center, Matthew Denhart, hails Washington’s full circle. “It’s funny how politics work sometimes—the details of immigration reform announced this week by the Senate and White House are virtually indistinguishable from what was advanced by President Bush and other leaders in 2007 ... While it’s unfortunate immigration reform failed to pass Congress five years ago and has languished ever since, the current plan holds promise to boost economic growth, which should be our country’s top priority.”¶ Other Bush allies, like the Goldwater Institute’s Clint Bolick, who co-authored a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed on immigration reform with Jeb Bush, are balancing optimism with skepticism as they look at the current proposal: “It is a step forward with some excellent features,” says Bolick. “But entering the country has to have a consequence, and providing a path to citizenship rather than permanent residency will encourage future illegal immigration, just as the 1986 law did. It also fails to confront preferences for distant-family members that crowd out work-based immigration. But it is great to see Republicans and Democrats coming to grips with immigration issues.”¶ The renewed atmosphere of something like bipartisanship is refreshing—and, of course, needed, to get anything done in a divided government.¶ But one final irony is worth noting. The current Gang of Eight plan learns the lesson of opposition to the 2007 proposal by front-loading border security before any progress toward a pathway to citizenship is made. The trigger mechanism and metrics for establishing this success are still unclear. But the fact is that border security dramatically increased during the Obama administration’s first term, with officials almost doubling the number of agents patrolling the border from what was in place when Bush made his speech to the nation. The walls have continued to be built, and criminal deportations have hit record highs. Combined with the effects of the Great Recession, which reduced demand for undocumented workers, the Obama administration has quietly accumulated a record of success on a front usually considered a conservative policy priority.¶ And so the stars seem to be aligning into one of those moments where, as Seamus Heaney once wrote, “hope and history rhyme.” Make no mistake—there is still plenty of time for Washington to screw this up. But there is urgency to the effort, rooted in the parties’ individual self-interest as well as the national interest. After all, if President Obama and President Bush can agree on the substance of something as contentious as immigration reform, surely it isn’t too much to hope that our divided Congress can find a way to reason together on this issue.
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Avlon 1/31/13 (john, “Immigration Reform Proposal Shows Similar Ideas Betweeen Bush and Obama”, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/01/31/immigration-reform-proposal-shows-similar-ideas-betweeen-bush-and-obama.html, CMR)
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Responsible Republicans know they cannot afford to alienate Hispanics any longer You’re not seeing the explosion of opposition now that we saw in 2007. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen; but for now, it hasn’t.”¶ Obama is pushing for this bill at a time of maximum political capital and national popularity The trigger mechanism and metrics for establishing this success are still unclear. But the fact is border security dramatically increased during the Obama administration’s first term, Obama has quietly accumulated a record of success on a front usually considered a conservative policy priority the stars seem to be aligning into one of those moments where hope and history rhyme.” Make no mistake—there is still plenty of time for Washington to screw this up. But there is urgency to the effort it isn’t too much to hope that our divided Congress can find a way to reason together on this issue.
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(--) View the UQ through political capital – Obama has enough to forge compromise but it’s not a done deal
| 4,961 | 106 | 903 | 802 | 20 | 151 | 0.024938 | 0.188279 |
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'EARLY SHADOW BOXING' Democratic Representative Jerrold Nadler of New York warned against reading too much into Republican objections, calling them "early shadow boxing" before rigorous negotiations get under way.
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Reuters 2/5 (“House Republicans try to chip away at immigration reform”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/us-usa-immigration-idUSBRE9130V620130206, CMR)
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Nadler warned against reading too much into Republican objections, calling them "early shadow boxing" before rigorous negotiations get under way
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(--) Prefer predictive ev – GOP objections are political snapshots
| 213 | 67 | 144 | 29 | 10 | 20 | 0.344828 | 0.689655 |
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An ongoing battle in the U.S., the passing of immigration reform now appears likely due to political strategy and benefits it would create for American business, Boston University professors and students said.¶ “This time it’s going to happen simply because the Republican Party has no choice but to support some kind of immigration reform package,” said international relations professor Joseph Wippl. “They have no choice because they’re not going to be able to select anyone as president unless they stop or change their profile of being an anti-immigration political party.”¶ U.S. President Barack Obama delivered a speech on his proposals for immigration reform in Las Vegas Tuesday, outlining his thoughts on the importance of reform to his country and constituents.¶ “The promise we see in those who come here from every corner of the globe, that’s always been one of our greatest strengths,” Obama said in his speech. “It keeps our workforce young, it keeps our country on the cutting edge. And it helped build the greatest economic engine the world has ever known.”¶ Obama said immigrants helped start technology giants such as Google and Yahoo!, and that one out of four technology startups in recent years can be attributed to the work of immigrants.¶ He also said immigrants are responsible for creating new industries that in turn, created new jobs.¶ “We all know that today we have an immigration system that is out of date, and badly broken — a system that is holding us back instead of helping us grow our economy and strengthen our middle class,” he said.¶ Wippl said immigration reform is a complicated issue, but may take focus away from bettering the skills and education of American citizens.¶ “It bothers me a bit simply because, number one, it means we’re not educating our own population and secondly, we’re stealing skilled people from countries that need skilled people in order to develop,” he said.¶ However, Wippl said he can see the position of American business and how increasing numbers of skilled workers are necessary.¶ “It should give us more incentive to educate our own people,” Wippl said.¶ David Torres, a College of Arts and Sciences senior, said Obama has deported more immigrants than past presidents have, including George Bush and Bill Clinton.¶ “Obama isn’t exactly a champion of immigration reform — however, one of the things that he has done is put it on the table,” Torres said.¶ Torres said Obama is urging Congress to consider the reform bill and attempting to get it passed by appealing to both political parties.¶ “I do like that he’s getting bipartisan support more,” Torres said. “I think it’s been important and shows that he’s serious about it and it’s good leadership — I think that’s something President Obama has done wonderfully.”¶ He said Obama might be pushing harder for immigration reform now that he does not have to worry about campaigning again or being reelected.¶ “He’s doing it now that it’s his second term because there’s not necessarily ramifications,” Torres said. “It’s easier to get away with somewhat much more controversial legislation.”
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Waterman 2/3 (Margaret, “Immigration reform likely, BU professor, students say”, http://dailyfreepress.com/2013/02/03/immigration-reform-likely-bu-professor-students-say/, CMR)
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the passing of immigration reform now appears likely Boston University professors said the Republican Party has no choice but to support some kind of immigration reform package said i r professor Wippl Obama is urging Congress to consider the reform bill and attempting to get it passed by appealing to both political parties he’s getting bipartisan support more it’s been important and shows that he’s serious about it and it’s good leadership Obama might be pushing harder for immigration reform now that he does not have to worry about campaigning again or being reelected
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(--) Obama will dedicate ALL his PC to immigration – makes bipartisan deal likely
| 3,117 | 82 | 575 | 513 | 14 | 94 | 0.02729 | 0.183236 |
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With leadership from the president, both political parties and both houses of Congress, comprehensive immigration reform - one of the most divisive issues in the nation for a generation - appears to be on a fast track for approval.¶ Of course, that doesn't mean that grand plans offered back-to-back by a bipartisan group of senators and President Obama won't be sidetracked, as anything can happen in a politically polarized nation and on such a volatile subject. But the fact that Republicans and Democrats are in agreement that something has to be done, and that the two newly unveiled plans for immigration overall have similar objectives, it would be regrettable if Congress botched this opportunity.¶ Obviously influenced by presidential election results in November, in which Obama got 71 percent of the Hispanic vote, many Republican lawmakers have been less strident in their opposition to immigration reform. Perhaps the hottest of flash points has been any provision that even resembles a path to citizenship for the estimated 11 million people in the country illegally.¶ But proposals presented last week by the president and the "gang of eight" senators provide for a citizenship path, although with some different nuances. The Senate group includes four Republicans (John McCain and Jeff Flake of Arizona, Marco Rubio of Florida and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina) and four Democrats (Richard Durbin of Illinois, Charles Schumer of New York, Robert Menendez of New Jersey and Michael Bennet of Colorado).¶ The senators' plan released Monday calls for illegal immigrants, before obtaining legal permanent residency or a green card, to register with the government, pass a background check, pay a fine and applicable taxes, learn English and get in line behind those already pursuing legal routes to citizenship.¶ Principles outlined Tuesday in Obama's proposal are similar, but under the president's plan illegal immigrants granted work permits would be able to apply for a green card sooner, thus putting them on a somewhat quicker path to citizenship.¶ It's difficult to know how workable either proposal would be, considering the financial costs to the illegal applicant and the possibility of the individual remaining in a constant holding pattern while awaiting the opportunity for full citizenship. But for most, to be free to work and remain in the country legally will take them out of the shadows even though some immigration advocates suggest such a status will create a permanent "second-class citizen."¶ The president insists that for any comprehensive plan to work, "we've got to bring our legal immigration system into the 21st century because it no longer reflects the realities of our time. For example, if you are a citizen, you shouldn't have to wait years before your family is able to join you in America."¶ Visas for same-sex partners could be applied for by citizens and residents under Obama's proposal, something likely to be opposed by many conservatives in Congress.¶ Other provisions of the proposals include: more border security; an employment verification system and harsher penalties for employers who knowingly hire an illegal immigrant; provisional legal status for agriculture workers and those who entered the U.S. illegally as children; and expanding visas and issuing green cards to foreigners who earn graduate degrees in certain fields in this country.¶ The Senate is expected to hold its first hearing in about two weeks, with legislation introduced as early as March, according to McClatchy Newspapers.¶ The comprehensive approach is gaining widespread support from a cross-section of business, educational and religious leaders and organizations.
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Fort Worth Star-Telegram 2/5 (“Finally, a bipartisan approach to immigration policy”, http://www.bnd.com/2013/02/05/2484257/finally-a-bipartisan-approach.html, CMR)
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With leadership from the president both political parties and both houses comprehensive immigration reform appears to be on a fast track for approval. that doesn't mean grand plans won't be sidetracked as anything can happen in a politically polarized nation and on such a volatile subject. But Republicans and Democrats are in agreement that something has to be done, and the two newly unveiled plans for immigration overall have similar objectives many Republican lawmakers have been less strident in their opposition to immigration reform The Senate is expected to hold its first hearing in two weeks, with legislation introduced as early as March The comprehensive approach is gaining widespread support
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(--) Obama’s push ensures a quick, bipartisan deal
| 3,703 | 51 | 707 | 579 | 8 | 110 | 0.013817 | 0.189983 |
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But now we have leading Democrats and Republicans who have announced their support of a bipartisan reform package. With the Senate moving towards action, House Republicans indicating we should be open to immigrants, and President Barack Obama making immigration reform a top priority, the country appears close to taking meaningful action on this important issue. While there are many hurdles yet to overcome, it is important to note the dramatic changes in the politics of immigration reform that have unfolded in the past few months.
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West 2/5 – Vice President and Director, Governance Studies @ Brookings, (Darrell, “How the Politics of Immigration Reform Have Changed”, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/02/05-immigration-reform-west, CMR)
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leading Democrats and Republicans have announced their support of a bipartisan reform package With the Senate moving towards action, House Republicans indicating we should be open to immigrants, and Obama making immigration a top priority the country appears close to taking meaningful action
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(--) Top priority – passage likely
| 535 | 35 | 292 | 85 | 6 | 43 | 0.070588 | 0.505882 |
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President Obama will meet separately Tuesday with labor and business leaders on immigration reform, as the White House seeks to enlist the often at-odds interest groups in a common push toward a comprehensive legislative package.¶ Obama has invited 16 labor and progressive leaders, including the heads of the AFL-CIO and NAACP, to the White House at 11 a.m., and a dozen big business chief executives, including the heads of Coca Cola, Goldman Sachs and Yahoo, at 3:20 p.m.¶ The president “will continue his dialogue with outside leaders on a number of issues – including immigration reform and how it fits into his broader economic agenda, and his efforts to achieve balanced deficit reduction,” the White House announced.¶ The lobbying strategy is similar to the script Obama followed in the recent negotiations over the fiscal cliff, when he also met with labor and business groups. The White House believes that increasing pressure on Congress from different interest groups with large networks outside Washington will help Obama in his pursuit of an ambitious second-term agenda, including stricter gun-control laws and immigration reform.¶ Though business and labor are often on opposing sides of the bargaining table, both sides have expressed support for an overhaul of the nation’s immigration laws and have pledged to try to find common ground. The biggest obstacle is likely to involve creation of a “guest worker program,” which would grant temporary visas to foreign workers, especially in agriculture and some high-tech engineering fields in which employers say there is a shortage of American workers.
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Nakamura 2/4 (David, “Obama to meet with labor, business leaders on immigration”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/04/obama-to-meet-with-labor-business-leaders-on-immigration/, CMR)
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Obama will meet with labor and business leaders on immigration as the White House seeks to enlist interest groups in a common push toward a comprehensive legislative package The president “will continue his dialogue with outside leaders on a number of issues – including immigration and how it fits into his broader economic agenda, increasing pressure on Congress will help Obama in his pursuit of an ambitious second-term agenda, including immigration business and labor have expressed support for an overhaul of the nation’s immigration laws and have pledged to try to find common ground
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(--) Obama’s push is unifying business and labor – ensures passage
| 1,617 | 67 | 590 | 255 | 11 | 94 | 0.043137 | 0.368627 |
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Barack Obama has warned Republicans that if they attempt to block his drive towards comprehensive immigration reform he will send his own legislation to Congress and force them to vote on it.
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Pilkington, 1/30 (Ed, 1/30/2013, The Guardian, “Immigration reform: Obama pushes forward with warning to GOP; President's call to action on 'common-sense reform' comes amid quiet optimism that deadlock immigration can be broken,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/29/obama-immigration-reform-republicans, CMR))
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Obama has warned Republicans that if they attempt to block his drive towards comprehensive immigration reform he will send his own legislation to Congress and force them to vote on it
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(--) Obama is using capital to ensure quick passage of immigration reform but he is letting Congressional leaders hammer out the details
| 191 | 137 | 183 | 32 | 22 | 31 | 0.6875 | 0.96875 |
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President Barack Obama expressed confidence on Wednesday that he would sign comprehensive immigration reform into law by the end of this year.¶ In an interview with Univision's Maria Elena Salinas, Obama explained that significant details of a bill still must be worked out by lawmakers, including the structure of a pathway to citizenship for many of the 11 million undocumented immigrants. But Obama said that the progress made by a bipartisan group of lawmakers in the Senate has given him hope that a deal can get done.
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JORDAN FABIAN, 1/30/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Confident Immigration Reform Passes This Year,” http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/president-obama-confident-immigration-reform-passes-year/story?id=18358660, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg)
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Obama expressed confidence on Wednesday that he would sign comprehensive immigration reform into law by the end of this year Obama said that the progress made by a bipartisan group of lawmakers in the Senate has given him hope that a deal can get done.
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(--) Will pass now—bipartisan support means immigration reform will pass:
| 523 | 73 | 252 | 87 | 10 | 45 | 0.114943 | 0.517241 |
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President Barack Obama’s proposed immigration law changes and gun control measures should be able to pass Congress, said David Plouffe, Obama’s senior political adviser.¶ “Newtown has changed the debate,” Plouffe said on CNN’s “State of the Union” today. “Sadly, it took a tragedy like that, but you’re seeing a lot of people -- by the way Democrats and Republicans -- think differently about this issue since this tragedy.”¶ Obama will be officially sworn in today, as required by the Constitution, in a small ceremony at the White House. He will take the oath of office a second time tomorrow in a public event on the steps of the Capitol. Chief Justice John Roberts will administer both oaths.¶ Vice President Joe Biden was sworn in earlier today for a second term by Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor at his residence at the Naval Observatory in Washington.¶ Obama has staked out a second term agenda of overhauling immigration, gun control and the tax code. Plouffe took an optimistic stance, saying that the time has come for both immigration change and gun control.¶ Obama’s first term was largely consumed by repairing economic wreckage from the 2008 financial crisis and getting his health care law passed. His second term is starting with efforts to reach a compromise with Congress on raising the debt ceiling and cutting deficit spending.¶ Plouffe said Congress has the votes to pass Obama’s agenda.
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Cheyenne Hopkins, 1/20/2013 (staff writer, “Plouffe Predicts Passage of Gun Control, Immigration Measures,” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-20/plouffe-predicts-passage-of-gun-control-immigration-measures.html, Accessed 1/20/2013, rwg)
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Obama’s proposed immigration law changes should be able to pass Congress, Obama has staked out a second term agenda of overhauling immigration Plouffe said Congress has the votes to pass Obama’s agenda.
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now—Obama has the votes:
| 1,415 | 58 | 202 | 234 | 9 | 32 | 0.038462 | 0.136752 |
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WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama announced after a meeting with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus on Friday that he will lay out some of his plans for immigration reform on Tuesday in Las Vegas.¶ Members of the caucus who were present at the meeting said Obama assured them that he shares the group's basic beliefs about immigration reform, most notably that making a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants -- which some Republicans oppose -- is an absolute must as they push for legislation.¶ "The President was pleased to hear from CHC members and noted that they share the same vision, including that any legislation must include a path to earned citizenship," the administration in a statement. "The President further noted that there is no excuse for stalling or delay."¶ Seven members of Congress were present at the meeting, including Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chairman Ruben Hinojosa (D-Texas), Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), Immigration Task Force Chairman Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.) and Chairman of the Democratic Caucus Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.).¶ Obama told the group that his plans for immigration reform align with their own, especially with regards to the need for a pathway to citizenship, Becerra said after the meeting.¶ "He said on more than one occasion that his principles virtually mirrored the Congressional Hispanic Caucus principles -- and if you look at our principles, we are determined to fight against creating a second class of Americans," Becerra told HuffPost. "I don't think there's any light between where we are and where he is on the issue of having America legally create a second class of citizens."¶ The Associated Press reported that the White House will launch an effort on immigration next week, as will a bipartisan group of senators, likely the so-called "gang of eight" -- four Republicans, four Democrats -- who have already begun to work toward a deal.¶ A Senate Democratic aide, who was not authorized to speak publicly on the group's plans, told HuffPost that the senators hope to release a set of principles in February, and then a bill.¶ A pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants already in the United States is considered a non-negotiable for many Democrats and immigrant advocates, who argue anything else would result in a huge group of second-class residents. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said Wednesday that advocates for a pathway to citizenship will have to cave and accept temporary status instead, with no special road to citizenship.¶ Meanwhile, senators plan to move ahead on other piecemeal immigration bills. The Hill reported Friday that Sens. Orrin Hatch of Utah and Marco Rubio of Florida are teaming up with Democratic Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Chris Coons of Delaware to introduce a bill next week that focuses on visas for high-skilled workers.¶ Obama administration officials have said they believe piece-by-piece reform would be less productive, but Hatch told The Hill he thinks his bill could aid in the broader legislative effort.¶ "I think we need to break the ice and let people know that this is the art of the doable ... at least I think it's very doable, and I think everybody ought to come on [to support it] because it makes sense and it's a bipartisan bill already," he said. "If we put that through that says to them, well maybe we can do more and if we can do more, I'm going to be right there helping."¶ Becerra said that the president indicated again on Friday to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus that he wants a comprehensive bill. The congressman declined to speak about the bipartisan work in the House, but said there is "lots of conversation" going on between the members. His view is that bipartisan groups in each chamber should work on their own bills, then come together to find an agreement that can pass both houses, he said.¶ "It's up to Congress to pass legislation, and so Congress ultimately has to draft and present legislation," he said. "And the smartest thing would be to draft a bipartisan bill that has bicameral support with the president right there at the helm as well."¶ Menendez said in an email that he is "very enthused" about Obama's commitment to comprehensive immigration reform.¶ "The President's leadership is essential to our ultimate success," he said. "I applaud him for announcing his commitment at the very beginning of this term and hope that the bipartisan process that is ongoing in the Senate will lead us to passage of a bill he can sign."¶ This story has been updated with comments from Becerra, Menendez and a Senate Democratic aide.
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Foley, 1/25/2013 (Elise, 1/25/2013, “Obama To Make Major Immigration Moves Next Week,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/25/obama-immigration-plan_n_2551896.html, rwg)
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Obama will lay out some of his plans for immigration reform on Tuesday "The President further noted that there is no excuse for stalling or delay." the White House will launch an effort on immigration next week, as will a bipartisan group of senators, likely the so-called "gang of eight" -- four Republicans, four Democrats -- who have already begun to work toward a deal. Menendez said he is "very enthused" about Obama's commitment to comprehensive immigration reform "The President's leadership is essential to our ultimate success," "I applaud him for announcing his commitment at the very beginning of this term and hope that the bipartisan process that is ongoing in the Senate will lead us to passage of a bill he can sign."
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(--) Immigration reform will pass --- Obama is making an aggressive push and his leadership is key
| 4,628 | 98 | 732 | 766 | 17 | 124 | 0.022193 | 0.16188 |
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It seems the need for immigration reform has hit a critical mass for Republicans and Democrats in Congress. The time, proponents of reform say, is right to push reform to the forefront. There’s more agreement on what might constitute immigration reform than there is over budgets, debt and government spending.¶ The Republican effort, key to passage in the U.S. House, runs along the lines of tightened border security, employer checks and a path to legal status for non-citizens illegally in this country that includes fines and payment of back taxes. It includes an acknowledgement that there must be pragmatic methods of coming to terms with the 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S.; it must be a means that’s “earned,” with a goal that’s “attainable.” President Barack Obama alluded to immigration reform in his second inaugural address.¶ Pushing conservatives in the U.S. House is a coalition of business, evangelical and law enforcement leaders. At the same time a bipartisan group of eight U.S. senators is backing comprehensive immigration reform in that chamber. It includes Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., Dick Durbin, D-Ill., Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., Robert Menendez, D-N.J., Michael Bennet, D-Colo., and Mike Lee, R-Utah. In addition, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., a Cuban American, has spoken in support of immigration reform.
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Bismark Tribune, 1/23/2013 (“Immigration reform attainable,”¶ http://bismarcktribune.com/news/opinion/editorial/immigration-reform-attainable/article_8e6c86dc-64a9-11e2-a838-0019bb2963f4.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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It seems the need for immigration reform has hit a critical mass for Republicans and Democrats in Congress. The time, proponents of reform say, is right to push reform to the forefront. There’s more agreement on what might constitute immigration reform than there is over budgets Obama alluded to immigration reform in his second inaugural address.¶ Pushing conservatives in the U.S. House is a coalition of business, evangelical and law enforcement leaders. At the same time a bipartisan group of eight U.S. senators is backing comprehensive immigration reform in that chamber
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(--) Multiple forces make immigration reform likely now:
| 1,386 | 56 | 577 | 217 | 8 | 91 | 0.036866 | 0.419355 |
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Do you expect cooperation from the GOP? I recently had an opportunity to have a very short conversation with Sen. [John] McCain. He seems to be very optimistic about the chances of passing comprehensive reform. I'm working with a group of eight senators, bipartisan, who realize the time is now, and my hope is that both parties will work together to fix this broken immigration system.
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Brooke Berger, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, “Villaraigosa: Comprehensive Immigration Reform Is Not Amnesty,” http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2013/01/23/villaraigosa-comprehensive-immigration-reform-is-not-amnesty, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Do you expect cooperation from the GOP? I recently had an opportunity to have a very short conversation with Sen. [John] McCain. He seems to be very optimistic about the chances of passing comprehensive reform.
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now—top GOP leaders on board:
| 386 | 63 | 210 | 66 | 10 | 35 | 0.151515 | 0.530303 |
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Republicans will bend over backwards in an effort to convince Latinos that their proposal will work out just fine for everyone. Latinos, however, aren't stupid. They know that being denied any path to citizenship equals an effort to minimize their voice on the national political stage. Which is why, as I said, Obama holds all the cards in this fight. Because this is the one issue in his agenda which Republicans also have a big vested interest in making happen. Obama and the Democrats will, I believe, hold firm on their insistence on a path to citizenship, and I think a comprehensive immigration bill will likely pass some time this year, perhaps before the summer congressional break. The path to citizenship it includes will be long, expensive and difficult (Republicans will insist on at least that), but it will be there.
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Chris Weigant, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, “Handicapping Obama's Second Term Agenda,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/obama-second-term_b_2537802.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama holds all the cards in this fight this is the one issue in his agenda which Republicans also have a big vested interest in making happen. I think a comprehensive immigration bill will likely pass some time this year, perhaps before the summer congressional break
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now—Obama holds all the cards now:
| 831 | 68 | 268 | 141 | 11 | 46 | 0.078014 | 0.326241 |
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WASHINGTON — A top White House adviser says the stars seemed aligned for Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform this year.¶ Speaking Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union,” David Plouffe (pluhf) said support for reform is strong among lawmakers, the business community and the American people.¶ He says there’s, quote, “no reason” immigration reform shouldn’t move through Congress this year.
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Associated Press, 1/20/2013 (“Top Obama aide optimistic on immigration reform, hopeful on new gun safety laws,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/federal_government/top-obama-aide-optimistic-on-immigration-reform-hopeful-on-new-gun-safety-laws/2013/01/20/faa0719c-630a-11e2-889b-f23c246aa446_story.html, Accessed 1/20/2013, rwg)
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the stars seemed aligned for Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform this year. reform is strong among lawmakers, the business community and the American people. He says there’s no reason” immigration reform shouldn’t move through Congress this year.
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now—support from multiple sectors:
| 401 | 68 | 260 | 61 | 9 | 38 | 0.147541 | 0.622951 |
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The second big agenda item is immigration reform. President Obama holds virtually all the cards, politically, on this one. All Republicans who can read either demographics or polling numbers know full well that this may be their party's last chance not to go the way of the Whigs. Their support among Latinos is dismal, and even that's putting it politely. Some Republicans think they have come up with a perfect solution on how to defuse the issue, but they are going to be proven sadly mistaken in the end, I believe. The Republican plan will be announced by Senator Marco Rubio at some point, and it will seem to mirror the Democratic plan -- with one key difference. Republicans -- even the ones who know their party has to do something on the immigration problem -- are balking at including a "path to citizenship" for the 11 million undocumented immigrants who are already in America.
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Chris Weigant, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, “Handicapping Obama's Second Term Agenda,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/obama-second-term_b_2537802.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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immigration reform. President Obama holds virtually all the cards, politically, on this one. All Republicans who can read either demographics or polling numbers know full well that this may be their party's last chance
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(--) Obama holds all the cards on immigration now:
| 890 | 50 | 218 | 155 | 9 | 34 | 0.058065 | 0.219355 |
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Sen. Marco Rubio is rallying conservatives behind immigration reform with a set of principles he unveiled this week and has promoted with a media blitz.¶ Proponents of comprehensive immigration reform, who mainly reside on the left, are surprised that Rubio, a Republican from Florida, has generated so much positive buzz from conservatives.¶ They see it as a promising sign that 2013 will be a more promising year for immigration reform than 2006 and 2007, which both began with high hopes that fizzled after a stalemate in Congress.¶ “He’s doing an awesome job of bringing along conservatives and bringing along conservatives in the media,” said Frank Sharry, the founder of America’s Voice, which advocates for comprehensive reform. “He’s making enormous progress in making reform palatable to people on the right in a way that no one has before.”
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Alexander Bolton, 1/20/2013 (staff writer, “Sen. Rubio rallying conservatives behind comprehensive immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/278159-rubio-rallying-conservatives-behind-principles-for-comprehensive-immigration-reform, Accessed 1/20/2013, rwg)
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Rubio is rallying conservatives behind immigration reform with a media blitz Proponents of comprehensive immigration reform, who mainly reside on the left, are surprised that Rubio, a Republican from Florida, has generated so much positive buzz from conservatives.¶ They see it as a promising sign that 2013 will be a more promising year for immigration reform He’s making enormous progress in making reform palatable to people on the right in a way that no one has before
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now—support from conservatives:
| 850 | 65 | 472 | 137 | 8 | 77 | 0.058394 | 0.562044 |
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High-skilled immigration legislation has typically enjoyed bipartisan support, but past efforts to pass such measures have been tangled up in the larger immigration debate. The momentum for passing a comprehensive immigration package has ramped up after Obama received roughly 70 percent of the Hispanic vote during the 2012 election.
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Jennifer Martinez, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, “Obama makes call for high-skilled immigration reform in inaugural address,” http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/technology/278323-obama-makes-call-for-high-skilled-immigration-reform-in-inaugural-address, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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The momentum for passing a comprehensive immigration package has ramped up after Obama received roughly 70 percent of the Hispanic vote during the 2012 election.
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now—momentum:
| 334 | 47 | 161 | 49 | 6 | 25 | 0.122449 | 0.510204 |
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Along with public support for immigration reform, Rep. Becerra said that African-American members of Congress and the Latino members of Congress are supporting each other as well.¶ Despite the “Neanderthal element in Congress that continues to hold us back,” Rep. Becerra is optimistic. “It’s no longer a matter of if we’re going to have immigration reform–it’s when, and I believe it’ll be this year.”
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Faiven Feshazion, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, “Immigration reform isn’t an ‘if,’ but a ‘when’,”http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/01/22/immigration-reform-isnt-an-if-but-a-when/, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Despite the “Neanderthal element in Congress that continues to hold us back,” Rep. Becerra is optimistic. “It’s no longer a matter of if we’re going to have immigration reform–it’s when, and I believe it’ll be this year.”
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(--) Immigration reform will pass this year:
| 402 | 44 | 221 | 64 | 7 | 37 | 0.109375 | 0.578125 |
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Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, who for years has hosted a weekly meeting of conservative activists leaders, called Rubio’s plan a “step in the right direction.”¶ It’s a good sign for the prospect of moving immigration reform through the 113th Congress because liberal advocates also like the plan.¶ “I think it’s encouraging. He’s talking about the basic elements of reform shared by pro-reform Republicans and the vast majority of Democrats,” Sharry said.
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Alexander Bolton, 1/20/2013 (staff writer, “Sen. Rubio rallying conservatives behind comprehensive immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/278159-rubio-rallying-conservatives-behind-principles-for-comprehensive-immigration-reform, Accessed 1/20/2013, rwg)
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Rubio’s plan a “step in the right direction It’s a good sign for the prospect of moving immigration reform through the 113th Congress because liberal advocates also like the plan. it’s encouraging. He’s talking about the basic elements of reform shared by pro-reform Republicans and the vast majority of Democrats
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now—common ground is being reached:
| 481 | 69 | 313 | 75 | 10 | 50 | 0.133333 | 0.666667 |
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Republicans on Capitol Hill are hungry to move immigration reform to boost their numbers with Hispanic voters, who are the fastest-growing major bloc of the national electorate.¶ They see Rubio, a Cuban-American conservative with Tea-Party bona fides, as a natural person to lead them on the issue and provide political cover for their right flank. Republican senators appear poised to rally behind Rubio’s principles when they return to Capitol Hill next week.
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Alexander Bolton, 1/20/2013 (staff writer, “Sen. Rubio rallying conservatives behind comprehensive immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/278159-rubio-rallying-conservatives-behind-principles-for-comprehensive-immigration-reform, Accessed 1/20/2013, rwg)
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Republicans on Capitol Hill are hungry to move immigration reform to boost their numbers with Hispanic voters They see Rubio as a natural person to lead them on the issue and provide political cover for their right flank. Republican senators appear poised to rally behind Rubio’s principles when they return to Capitol Hill
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(--) Republicans want to pass immigration reform now:
| 461 | 53 | 323 | 72 | 8 | 53 | 0.111111 | 0.736111 |
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Plouffe said there is no reason “that immigration reform shouldn’t pass.”¶ “Obviously the legislative process has to work its way through but this is the moment,” Plouffe said. “The stars seem to be aligned to finally get comprehensive immigration reform.”
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Cheyenne Hopkins, 1/20/2013 (staff writer, “Plouffe Predicts Passage of Gun Control, Immigration Measures,” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-20/plouffe-predicts-passage-of-gun-control-immigration-measures.html, Accessed 1/20/2013, rwg)
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there is no reason “that immigration reform shouldn’t pass.”¶ “Obviously the legislative process has to work its way through but this is the moment, The stars seem to be aligned to finally get comprehensive immigration reform.”
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now—stars are aligned:
| 256 | 56 | 227 | 40 | 8 | 36 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
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Gibbs said he was confident that if Obama passed immigration reform, it would go a long way toward putting the new Democratic coalition on solid footing.¶ "[Obama] has broadened the Democratic coalition politically more because of who he is. And I think quite frankly … he'll cement even the broadening of the Democratic party in the next year or so by getting comprehensive immigration reform done," Gibbs said.
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Jon Ward, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, “Obama's Destiny As The Next JFK Faces Second-Term Obstacles -- And Bill Clinton,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/21/obama-clinton-legacy_n_2498934.html?utm_hp_ref=the-road-forward, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Gibbs said he was confident that if Obama passed immigration reform, it would go a long way toward putting the new Democratic coalition on solid footing he'll cement even the broadening of the Democratic party in the next year or so by getting comprehensive immigration reform done,"
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(--) Comprehensive immigration reform will pass now:
| 412 | 52 | 283 | 68 | 7 | 47 | 0.102941 | 0.691176 |
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On immigration, Obama plans to offer a proposal that would create a path to citizenship for most of the country's estimated 11 million illegal residents. The measure would go much further than immigration efforts that failed even to come to a vote in his first term. What may make passage possible, advocates argue, are Republican worries about the party's disastrous showing among Latino voters in the November election.¶ Mitt Romney received only 27% of the Latino vote, burying his presidential hopes in several battleground states. Many Republican strategists insist the party needs to make concessions on immigration to win future elections.
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David Lauter, 1/19/2013 (staff writer, “Obama comes out swinging for second term,” http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-adv-inaug-fever-20130120,0,3781596,full.story, Accessed 1/19/2013, rwg)
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On immigration, Obama plans to offer a proposal that would create a path to citizenship for most of the country's estimated 11 million illegal residents What may make passage possible, are Republican worries about the party's disastrous showing among Latino voters in the November election Many Republican strategists insist the party needs to make concessions on immigration to win future elections.
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now:
| 646 | 38 | 400 | 101 | 6 | 61 | 0.059406 | 0.60396 |
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So what is likely to happen?¶ A broad legislative proposal, one that puts 11 million undocumented immigrants on the road to citizenship, will be championed by the president, drafted on a bipartisan basis and approved by the Senate, with bipartisan support, sometime this spring. With comprehensive immigration reform favored by the public by a 2-to-1 margin, a bipartisan breakthrough in the Senate could send those numbers as high as 3 to 1.
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Frank Sharry, 1/15/2013 (Founder and executive director, America's Voice, “Immigration Reform in 2013: An Idea Whose Time Has Come,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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what is likely to happen?¶ A broad legislative proposal, one that puts 11 million undocumented immigrants on the road to citizenship, will be championed by the president and approved by the Senate, with bipartisan support, sometime this spring
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(--) Immigration reform will pass now:
| 442 | 38 | 243 | 72 | 6 | 38 | 0.083333 | 0.527778 |
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WASHINGTON -- President Obama plans to call for compromise in his State of the Union address Tuesday night as he invites Republicans to join him in a search for common ground -- and subtly dares them not to. The annual address -- the first of his second term -- comes as Obama faces a limited time of opportunity to pass legacy-making agenda items through a divided Congress while his political capital is still at its post-reelection high.
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LATimes, 2-12-13, [“Obama to talk up 'common ground' in his State of the Union address,” http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-state-of-the-union-preview-20130212,0,5764841.story]
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Obama plans to call for compromise as he invites common ground Obama faces a limited time of opportunity to pass legacy-making agenda items through a divided Congress while his political capital is still at its post-reelection high
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(--) Obama’s political capital is high now – Allows him to push some items but it’s finite
| 440 | 90 | 231 | 77 | 17 | 37 | 0.220779 | 0.480519 |
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Rather than go big and bold, President Obama settled Tuesday night for incremental and pragmatic. For all his swagger and political capital, the president subtly acknowledged the limits of what he can accomplish -- even while promising in his State of the Union address to create "a rising, thriving middle class." His speech lacked the moon-shot vibe you'd expect from a president courting greatness. President Obama lays out his second-term vision for America. The agenda he discussed Tuesday night was a mixture of old proposals and new ones fashioned on the cheap, bowing to the obstinacy of his GOP rivals and the brutal fiscal reality of the times. "Let me repeat -- nothing I'm proposing tonight should increase our deficit by a single dime," Obama told a joint session of Congress. "It's not a bigger government we need, but a smarter government that sets priorities and invests in broad-based growth." Obama may suspect that that his legacy is already in place or in motion, and that precious little can be added to it.
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The Atlantic, 2-12-13, [“Obama's Agenda: Incremental Progress, not Sweeping Initiatives,” http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/02/obamas-agenda-incremental-progress-not-sweeping-initiatives/273113/]
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Obama settled for incremental and pragmatic. For all his political capital, the president subtly acknowledged the limits of what he can accomplish His speech lacked the moon-shot vibe Obama may suspect that that his legacy is already in motion and that precious little can be added to it
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(--) Despite large amounts of capital, Obama is holding back to focus on his current agenda
| 1,028 | 91 | 287 | 173 | 16 | 48 | 0.092486 | 0.277457 |
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Of course, I could be wrong about any or all of these predictions. I have no special knowledge of how things will work out in Congress in the immediate future. I'm merely making educated guesses about what Obama will be able to achieve in at least the first few years of his second term. Obama has a lot of political capital right now, but that could easily change soon. The House Republicans seem almost demoralized right now, and Obama has successfully splintered them and called their bluff on two big issues already -- but they could regroup and decide to block everything the White House wants, and damn the political consequences. Unseen issues will pop up both on the domestic and foreign policy stages, as they always do. But, for now, this is my take on how the next few years are going to play out in Washington. Time will tell whether I've been too optimistic or too pessimistic on any or all of Obama's main agenda items. We'll just have to wait and see.
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Chris Weigant, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, “Handicapping Obama's Second Term Agenda,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/obama-second-term_b_2537802.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama has a lot of political capital right now, but that could easily change soon. The House Republicans seem almost demoralized right now, and Obama has successfully splintered them and called their bluff on two big issues already -
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(--) Obama has a lot of political capital now:
| 966 | 46 | 233 | 175 | 9 | 39 | 0.051429 | 0.222857 |
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There is reason for hope. Obama begins from a position of strength, politically. His job approval ratings have been consistently over 50 percent since he was re-elected -- a range Obama hasn't seen since 2009. As mentioned, the Republican presence in both houses of Congress has shrunk. More importantly, though, the House Republicans are visibly chastened (or even "shaken") by the election's outcome.
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Chris Weigant, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, “Handicapping Obama's Second Term Agenda,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/obama-second-term_b_2537802.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama begins from a position of strength, politically. His job approval ratings have been consistently over 50 percent since he was re-elected As mentioned, the Republican presence in both houses of Congress has shrunk. More importantly, though, the House Republicans are visibly chastened (or even "shaken") by the election's outcome
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(--) Obama has capital now:
| 402 | 28 | 334 | 63 | 5 | 50 | 0.079365 | 0.793651 |
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Washington (CNN) – President Barack Obama emphasized the need to get immigration reform accomplished this year in a meeting with a diverse group of faith leaders at the White House on Friday.¶ Religious leaders that attended the meeting said the president spent more than an hour with them, and after making a few remarks at the top of the meeting he let each group discuss their priorities and problems with comprehensive immigration reform. During the discussion, these faith leaders said, Obama made it clear that he wanted to see a bill on immigration reform in the next 60 days.¶ “I really sensed that this is a high priority for him,” Jim Wallis, president of Sojourners, a Christian social justice group, told CNN. “We are all looking at something being introduced this month and then the bill passing in May or June. We are all hoping that kind of time frame could work.”¶ Since winning reelection in 2012, the Obama administration has made it clear that immigration reform is a top priority for the president’s second term – and something they want to see quick action on. According to people who attended the meeting, in attendance, the president reiterated that support and laid out a timetable for the religious leaders.
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Dan Merica, 3/8/2013 (staff writer, “Obama pushes expedited timetable on immigration reform in meeting with faith leaders,” http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/08/obama-pushes-expedited-timetable-on-immigration-reform-in-meeting-with-faith-leaders/, Accessed 3/8/2013, rwg)
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Obama emphasized the need to get immigration reform accomplished this year I really sensed that this is a high priority for him We are all looking at something being introduced this month and then the bill passing in May or June. Since winning reelection the Obama administration has made it clear that immigration reform is a top priority for the president’s second term – and something they want to see quick action on.
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(--) Immigration reform is a top priority and Obama is pushing now:
| 1,232 | 67 | 421 | 209 | 12 | 73 | 0.057416 | 0.349282 |
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President Barack Obama is prepared to use his political capital to pursue immigration reform this month, according to a report published Wednesday in the Huffington Post. ¶ The report cited an anonymous official in the Obama administration, who suggested that the president is unlikely to be deterred by the protracted fiscal cliff debate that will be revisited in the coming months. As such, the administration will reportedly move quickly on both immigration reform and gun control.
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Tom Kludt, 1/3/2013 (staff writer, “Report: Obama To Make Push For Immigration Reform This Month,” http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/report-obama-to-make-push-for-immigration-reform, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama is prepared to use his political capital to pursue immigration reform this month, The report cited an anonymous official in the Obama administration, As such, the administration will reportedly move quickly on immigration reform
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(--) Obama is using political capital on immigration reform now:
| 484 | 64 | 234 | 76 | 10 | 35 | 0.131579 | 0.460526 |
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The first Senate hearing on immigration policy this year pointed toward an emerging bipartisan consensus that the nation's 11 million illegal immigrants should be offered a path to citizenship. But passionate divisions over the issue also surfaced as one Republican decried amnesty and shouting protesters interrupted the proceedings.¶ "You really mean that we're not going to have enforcement, but we've got to have amnesty first," Sen. Jeff Sessions, a top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, confronted the panel's chairman, Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt. ¶ Leahy and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano rejected the argument that border security must be the focus before a comprehensive immigration package or any pathway to legalization can be done.¶ "Too often the border security refrain simply serves as an excuse," Napolitano said. "Our borders have in fact never been stronger."¶ An immigration overhaul is a priority for President Barack Obama and lawmakers after a brutal election in which voters again elected a divided government. Democrats control the White House and the Senate, while Republicans hold the House majority.¶ But for all of the division and polarization in Washington, the hearing produced evidence of bipartisan agreement to fix what all agree is a broken system - and finally dispense with a wrenching issue that has bedeviled lawmakers for years.¶ Vargas' testimony produced a striking moment in which one of the 11 million illegal immigrants at the center of the debate confronted the elected officials reconsidering the law.¶ A former journalist who acknowledged his illegal status in a high-profile piece in The New York Times Magazine in June 2011, Vargas recalled his journey to the U.S. from the Philippines in 1993. He told lawmakers that he never knew he was here illegally until he applied for a drivers' permit, and that he lived for years in fear until he decided to go public and start an advocacy group. He has so far avoided deportation.¶ "Too often, we're treated as abstractions, faceless and nameless, mere subjects of debate rather than individuals with families, hopes, fears, and dreams," Vargas told committee members. "We dream of a path to citizenship so we can actively participate in our American democracy." Democrats on the panel offered praise and encouragement.¶ Republicans had little response.¶ For Vargas and others in his position the deliberations offered some encouraging signs mixed with unmistakable notes of caution.¶ Leahy declared in opening the hearing, "In my view it is time to pass a good bill, a fair bill, a comprehensive bill ... Too many have been waiting too long for fairness."¶ Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, said the focus must be border security. "I do not believe the border is secure and I still believe we have a long, long way to go," he said.¶ Protesters interrupted the hearing several times, with some shouting and waving banners against deportations, which have increased markedly under the Obama administration despite its push to find a political accommodation for many who have been living in the U.S. Later people in another group stood and silently turned their backs to the dais where the senators sat. They wore signs on their backs reading "human rights" and "immigrant rights." Leahy chided them for interrupting proceedings.¶ Obama says he is determined to finally make good on his promise to the Latino community to sign into law a comprehensive immigration bill with border security, employer enforcement, improvements to legal immigration and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants already here. Meanwhile, a bipartisan group of eight senators has been meeting to develop a bill by next month that accomplishes eventual citizenship for illegal immigrants while also containing enough border security and enforcement measures to gain conservative support.¶ The four Democrats in the Senate negotiating group met with Obama at the White House on Wednesday, telling him they were confident a bipartisan bill could be agreed to "in the coming weeks," a senior Democrat said later, speaking on condition of anonymity because the meeting was private. A White House statement said Obama reiterated his intention to offer legislation of his own if Congress fails to act, and told senators that continuing to strengthen the border should not be mutually exclusive from a pathway to citizenship.¶ The Senate bipartisan plan makes a pathway to citizenship conditional on border security first, something on which Republicans have insisted. Obama's immigration proposals don't make that linkage, and it's emerging as a point of contention.
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The Malone Telegram 2/14/2013, “Time To Rewrite Immigration Laws,” The Malone Telegram (New York), Lexis
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The first Senate hearing on immigration policy this year pointed toward an emerging bipartisan consensus that illegal immigrants should be offered a path to citizenship An immigration overhaul is a priority for Obama and lawmakers after a brutal election the hearing produced evidence of bipartisan agreement to fix what all agree is a broken system Obama is determined to make good on his promise to sign into law a comprehensive immigration bill a bipartisan group of eight senators has been meeting they were confident a bipartisan bill could be agreed to "in the coming weeks
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(--) Obama’s priority is immigration reform – there is emerging consensus, but it’s fragile
| 4,650 | 91 | 579 | 734 | 14 | 95 | 0.019074 | 0.129428 |
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Obama emphasized that he would pursue comprehensive immigration reform last month during an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” saying, “I’ve said that fixing our broken immigration system is a top priority. I will introduce legislation in the first year to get that done.”
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Chris Johnson, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, “Will Obama include gay couples in immigration reform?” http://www.washingtonblade.com/2013/01/23/will-obama-include-gay-couples-in-immigration-reform/, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama emphasized that he would pursue comprehensive immigration reform I’ve said that fixing our broken immigration system is a top priority. I will introduce legislation in the first year to get that done
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(--) Obama pushing immigration reform now:
| 274 | 42 | 205 | 44 | 6 | 33 | 0.136364 | 0.75 |
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Reform is a priority for President Obama, who said in his inaugural address Monday that "our journey is not complete until we find a better way to welcome the striving, hopeful immigrants who still see America as a land of opportunity; until bright young students and engineers are enlisted in our workforce rather than expelled from our country."¶ And a CNN public opinion poll — released the day after Obama’s remarks — shows that a majority of Americans, 53 percent, think the federal government should focus on developing a plan that would allow undocumented immigrants to become legal residents.¶ That’s a change from just a year ago, when a majority of Americans said deporting undocumented immigrants and stopping more of them from entering the country should be the main focus of U.S. policy.¶ Obama’s focus on immigration reform, and indicators of public support, were welcomed by activists at Voces de la Frontera, a Milwuakee-based advocacy group.
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PAT SCHNEIDER, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, “Poll says Americans want U.S. to find a way for immigrants to stay legally,” http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/writers/pat_schneider/poll-says-americans-want-u-s-to-find-a-way/article_da6d57dc-65ad-11e2-b987-001a4bcf887a.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Reform is a priority for President Obama, who said in his inaugural address Monday that "our journey is not complete until we find a better way to welcome the striving, hopeful immigrants who still see America as a land of opportunity Obama’s focus on immigration reform, and indicators of public support, were welcomed by activists
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(--) Obama is focused on immigration reform now:
| 958 | 48 | 332 | 156 | 8 | 55 | 0.051282 | 0.352564 |
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As with DACA, the new family unity rule may also ratchet up the political machinery around immigration reform. DACA helped cement Latinos’ overwhelming support (71 percent) for the president in the general election, compelling Republicans to start changing their tune on the need for reforming the U.S. immigration system. One result is that President Barack Obama promised swift action early in his new term. While other pressing policy issues have grabbed the headlines, the DHS rule is a nod to the Latino and overall immigrant communities, showing the administration’s promise to push for immigration reform is not an empty one. The timeline for introducing legislation is likely to just now be pushed from January or February to March or April.
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AS COA Online, 1/11/2013 (“New waiver shows immigration reform remains top priority for Obama,” http://www.voxxi.com/new-waiver-immigration-reform-obama/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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Obama promised swift action early in his new term. While other pressing policy issues have grabbed the headlines, the DHS rule is a nod to the Latino and overall immigrant communities, showing the administration’s promise to push for immigration reform is not an empty one.
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(--) Obama is serious about his push for immigration reform—promise isn’t an empty one:
| 749 | 87 | 273 | 120 | 14 | 45 | 0.116667 | 0.375 |
Politics Disadvantage - Samford 2013.html5
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Samford
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Disadvantages
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2013
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2,698 |
As of Monday, Obama will have four more years to reshape his immigration legacy. And there's every indication that he wants it to be different. He doesn't want the dubious distinction of being "deporter-in-chief" -- especially since he was elected and reelected as the avatar of an ever more diverse America. Nor does he merely want to be the author of a patchwork, watered-down reprieve for young undocumented immigrants -- a program that could be ended any time by a successor.¶ Obama and his aides insist that he is determined in the second term to find a permanent legislative solution for a much bigger category and a much bigger number: the 11 million undocumented immigrants in America today who, if Obama can convince Congress to go along, could gain a path to citizenship.
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Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push In Second Term,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/obama-immigration-reform_n_2463388.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama will have four more years to reshape his immigration legacy. And there's every indication that he wants it to be different. He doesn't want the dubious distinction of being "deporter-in-chief" Obama and his aides insist that he is determined in the second term to find a permanent legislative solution for a much bigger category and a much bigger number: the 11 million undocumented immigrants in America today
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(--) Obama will make a strong push for immigration reform this term:
| 781 | 68 | 416 | 133 | 12 | 68 | 0.090226 | 0.511278 |
Politics Disadvantage - Samford 2013.html5
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Samford
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Disadvantages
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2013
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2,699 |
In a briefing with The Huffington Post, a senior administration official said the White House believes it has met enforcement goals and must now move to a comprehensive solution. The administration is highly skeptical of claims from Republicans that immigration reform can or should be done in a piecemeal fashion. Going down that road, the White House worries, could result in passage of the less politically complicated pieces, such as an enforcement mechanism and high-skilled worker visas, while leaving out more contentious items such as a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
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Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push In Second Term,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/obama-immigration-reform_n_2463388.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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the White House believes it has met enforcement goals and must now move to a comprehensive solution. The administration is highly skeptical of claims from Republicans that immigration reform can or should be done in a piecemeal fashion.
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(--) Obama is pushing for comprehensive immigration reform:
| 596 | 59 | 236 | 92 | 8 | 38 | 0.086957 | 0.413043 |
Politics Disadvantage - Samford 2013.html5
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Samford
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Disadvantages
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2013
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