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What does this mean for 2013 and 2014? It means that the president will make immigration reform his top post-fiscal-cliff legislative priority. Democrats are more united than ever on immigration and are determined to make Republicans play or pay. Meanwhile, movement conservatives and Republican leaders alike are seeing the demographic writing on the wall and calling for the GOP to embrace immigration reform. They know that the party faces an existential crisis: The GOP has to regain its competitiveness with Hispanic voters or go the way of the Whigs.
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Frank Sharry, 1/15/2013 (Founder and executive director, America's Voice, “Immigration Reform in 2013: An Idea Whose Time Has Come,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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What does this mean for 2013 and 2014? It means that the president will make immigration reform his top post-fiscal-cliff legislative priority. Democrats are more united than ever on immigration and are determined to make Republicans play or pay.
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(--) Immigration reform is top of the docket:
| 556 | 45 | 246 | 89 | 8 | 39 | 0.089888 | 0.438202 |
Politics Disadvantage - Samford 2013.html5
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2,701 |
Obama’s remarks in his second and final inaugural address, were, as others have mentioned, a clearly broadcast signal of his position on a range of issues, including climate change, renewable energy, and entitlement programs. But for advocates who have long called for greater emphasis on science, technology, engineering and math education and a growing community that wants change to the nation’s immigration laws, particularly for skilled immigrants, the president sent an even clearer signal.
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Emi Kolawole, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, “Skilled immigration reform and STEM education advocates get spotlight in inaugural address,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/post/skilled-immigration-reform-and-stem-education-advocates-get-spotlight-in-inaugural-address/2013/01/22/5e9b3fc2-64d4-11e2-85f5-a8a9228e55e7_blog.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama’s remarks in his second and final inaugural address, were, as others have mentioned, a clearly broadcast signal of his position on a range of issues But for advocates that wants change to the nation’s immigration laws, particularly for skilled immigrants, the president sent an even clearer signal.
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(--) Inaugural address proves—immigration is a top priority:
| 496 | 60 | 304 | 74 | 8 | 48 | 0.108108 | 0.648649 |
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Obama has made clear that passing comprehensive immigration legislation will be a policy priority during his second term. It's expected that a measure aimed at boosting the number of visas available to foreign-born graduates of U.S. universities with master's degrees and Ph.D.s in engineering, math and science fields will be included in forthcoming immigration legislation.
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Jennifer Martinez, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, “Obama makes call for high-skilled immigration reform in inaugural address,” http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/technology/278323-obama-makes-call-for-high-skilled-immigration-reform-in-inaugural-address, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama has made clear that passing comprehensive immigration legislation will be a policy priority during his second term. It's expected that a measure aimed at boosting the number of visas available to foreign-born graduates of U.S. universities with master's degrees and Ph.D.s in engineering
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(--) Immigration a top priority for the second term:
| 375 | 52 | 293 | 55 | 9 | 44 | 0.163636 | 0.8 |
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2013
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2,703 |
The Democrats cannot take the Latino vote for granted. Before this past summer, when the president signed the executive order authorizing temporary residence for more than 1 million young immigrants, Obama’s approval rating among Latinos had fallen significantly to below 50 percent. Accordingly, immigration reform is now at the top of the national agenda.
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Arturo Lopez-Levy, 11/24/2012 (staff writer, “The Latin American Gorilla,” http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/opinion/the-latin-american-gorilla-318169.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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The Democrats cannot take the Latino vote for granted Accordingly, immigration reform is now at the top of the national agenda.
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(--) Immigration reform at the top of the docket:
| 357 | 49 | 127 | 54 | 9 | 21 | 0.166667 | 0.388889 |
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Washington is abuzz with discussions around fiscal cliff deadlines and gun law reform, but a new rule proves the Obama administration will not let immigration reform slide to the backburner. As he did throughout the 2012 campaign, the president has called immigration reform “a top priority,” and on January 2, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) published a rule that will keep more families together while showing the executive branch will not stand idly by as immigration reform discussions advance slowly in Congress.
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AS COA Online, 1/11/2013 (“New waiver shows immigration reform remains top priority for Obama,” http://www.voxxi.com/new-waiver-immigration-reform-obama/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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a new rule proves the Obama administration will not let immigration reform slide to the backburner. As he did throughout the 2012 campaign, the president has called immigration reform “a top priority,
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(--) Immigration reform top priority for Obama:
| 532 | 47 | 200 | 84 | 7 | 32 | 0.083333 | 0.380952 |
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2,705 |
WASHINGTON — President Obama plans to push Congress to move quickly in the coming months on an ambitious overhaul of the immigration system that would include a path to citizenship for most of the 11 million illegal immigrants in the country, senior administration officials and lawmakers said last week.
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Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast Push,” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/us/politics/obama-plans-to-push-congress-on-immigration-overhaul.html?_r=0, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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President Obama plans to push Congress to move quickly in the coming months on an ambitious overhaul of the immigration system that would include a path to citizenship
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(--) Obama will push for immigration reform quickly:
| 304 | 52 | 167 | 49 | 8 | 28 | 0.163265 | 0.571429 |
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2,706 |
After a public squabble over whether President Obama was in communication with Congress on immigration reform, Mr. Obama today called three key Republican senators to discuss the matter.¶ Mr. Obama called Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.; John McCain, R-Ariz.; and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., the White House said in a statement, "to discuss their shared commitment to bipartisan, commonsense immigration reform and to commend the Senators for the bipartisan progress that continues to be made by the Gang of 8 on this important issue."¶ Graham, McCain and Rubio are three of the four Republican senators working with four Democratic senators to craft immigration reform legislation. Mr. Obama did not speak to the fourth Republican, Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., because he is traveling today, but the White House said the president looks forward to speaking with him in the near future.¶ The White House said the president's phone calls today "build on conversations that have taken place at the staff level."
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Stephanie Condon, 2/19/2013 (staff writer, “After tiff, Obama calls GOP senators to talk immigration,” http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57570174/after-tiff-obama-calls-gop-senators-to-talk-immigration/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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After a public squabble over whether President Obama was in communication with Congress on immigration reform Obama today called three key Republican senators to discuss the matter Obama called Graham McCain and Rubio to discuss their shared commitment to bipartisan, commonsense immigration reform The White House said the president's phone calls today "build on conversations that have taken place at the staff level."
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(--) Obama has reached out to Republican Senators—prefer our evidence it was a response to the argument that Obama wasn’t reaching out:
| 996 | 135 | 420 | 158 | 22 | 63 | 0.139241 | 0.398734 |
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2,707 |
President Obama reached out on Tuesday to the Republican members of the bipartisan group of senators that crafted a framework for passing immigration reform.¶ Obama called Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) to discuss progress on passing immigration reform. The three senators are part of the so-called Gang of Eight, which unveiled a framework for passing immigration reform in late January.¶ Obama recently sat down with the Democratic members of the group to discuss progress on passing immigration reform.¶ "This afternoon, the President placed calls to Sen. Graham, Sen. McCain, and Sen. Rubio to discuss their shared commitment to bipartisan, commonsense immigration reform and to commend the Senators for the bipartisan progress that continues to be made by the Gang of Eight on this important issue," a statement from the White House said.
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Daniel Strauss, 2/19/2013 (staff writer, “Obama 'commends' GOP senators on immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/283857-obama-phones-gang-of-eight-republicans, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Obama reached out on Tuesday to the Republican members of the bipartisan group of senators that crafted a framework for passing immigration reform This afternoon, the President placed calls to Sen. Graham, Sen. McCain, and Sen. Rubio to discuss their shared commitment to bipartisan, commonsense immigration reform
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(--) Obama pushing immigration reform now—working with specific members of Congress:
| 890 | 84 | 314 | 138 | 11 | 47 | 0.07971 | 0.34058 |
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2,708 |
Seeking to ease tensions with Republicans, Obama on Tuesday reached out directly to three U.S. senators - Marco Rubio, John McCain and Lindsey Graham - part of a "Gang of Eight" Republicans and Democrats working on an immigration deal.¶ The White House, meanwhile, denied it had intentionally leaked its own "Plan B" for revamping U.S. immigration laws.
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Reuters, 2/20/2013 (“Obama says Immigration leak won't hurt reform talks,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/21/us-usa-immigration-obama-idUSBRE91K03L20130221, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Seeking to ease tensions with Republicans, Obama reached out directly to three U.S. senators - Rubio McCain and Graham - part of a "Gang of Eight" Republicans and Democrats working on an immigration deal
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Obama reaching out to the GOP on immigration reform now:
| 353 | 56 | 203 | 57 | 10 | 34 | 0.175439 | 0.596491 |
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Samford
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2013
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2,709 |
A draft of a comprehensive White House immigration proposal was obtained yesterday by USA Today, and one key Republican senator immediately deemed the president's plan "dead on arrival."¶ Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., a Hispanic lawmaker involved with a bipartisan group of senators crafting a compromise proposal, said it was a "mistake for the White House to draft immigration legislation without seeking input from Republican members of Congress," calling the proposal "half baked and seriously flawed," and declaring, "If actually proposed, the president's bill would be dead on arrival in Congress."¶ White House sources tell CBS News Senior White House Correspondent Bill Plante that this was not a planned leak. The sources add that the big concern is that the leak makes it appear that they are trying to get ahead of the Senate negotiations. They say that's not the case - the Senate process is going well and the White House is very much focused on supporting it.
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Jake Miller, 2/17/2013 (staff writer, “GOP: Leaked WH immigration plan "counterproductive",” http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57569812/gop-leaked-wh-immigration-plan-counterproductive/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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A draft of a comprehensive White House immigration proposal was obtained yesterday The sources add that the big concern is that the leak makes it appear that they are trying to get ahead of the Senate negotiations. They say that's not the case - the Senate process is going well and the White House is very much focused on supporting it.
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(--) Obama pushing the Congressional plan now—not his own bill:
| 969 | 63 | 337 | 158 | 10 | 61 | 0.063291 | 0.386076 |
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2,710 |
On Saturday, Rubio criticized the Obama administration after USA Today published leaked details of the administration's proposal for an immigration reform law. Obama has said he would push his own immigration plan if Congress cannot come to an agreement on comprehensive immigration reform.¶ "As the President made clear when he met with Democratic Senators involved in the process last week, that while he is pleased with the progress and supportive of the effort to date, he is prepared to submit his own legislation if Congress fails to act," the White House statement continued. "He thanked the senators for their leadership, and made clear that he and his staff look forward to continuing to work together with their teams to achieve needed reform."
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Daniel Strauss, 2/19/2013 (staff writer, “Obama 'commends' GOP senators on immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/283857-obama-phones-gang-of-eight-republicans, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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As the President made clear last week, that while he is pleased with the progress and supportive of the effort to date He thanked the senators for their leadership, and made clear that he and his staff look forward to continuing to work together with their teams to achieve needed reform."
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(--) Obama supporting the Congressional legislation now:
| 754 | 56 | 289 | 122 | 7 | 51 | 0.057377 | 0.418033 |
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In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Obama urged Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform “in the next few months.”¶ And eight senators — four of Obama’s Democratic allies and four Republicans — unveiled a joint plan last month aiming to provide a legal status to illegal immigrants living on US soil.¶ White House chief of staff Denis McDonough insisted on Sunday that the administration was working intensely with the so-called “gang of eight,” including Rubio.¶ “And we’re going to continue to work with Senator Rubio and others on this,” McDonough said, in an interview with ABC News.
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Agence France-Presse, 2/17/2013 (“White House defends immigration reform proposal,” http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/02/17/white-house-defends-immigration-reform-proposal/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Obama urged Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform “in the next few months White House chief of staff Denis McDonough insisted on Sunday that the administration was working intensely with the so-called “gang of eight,” including Rubio And we’re going to continue to work with Senator Rubio and others on this,
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(--) Obama supporting the gang of eight bill now:
| 606 | 49 | 320 | 100 | 9 | 51 | 0.09 | 0.51 |
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2,712 |
Despite the leak of part of his immigration proposal in the press earlier this week, President Obama remains confident that the news of the bill drafted by the White House won't hurt the ongoing negotiations in Congress geared towards reforming the immigration system.¶ As Reuters reports, President Obama downplayed the significance of the leak on the ongoing negotiations on immigration reform to San Antonio's KWEX television station, an affiliate of the Spanish-language network Univision, in an interview at the White House.¶ "It certainly didn't jeopardize the entire process. The negotiations are still moving forward," President Obama said, dismissing such news leaks as a common occurrence in Washington.
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Jean-Paul Salamanca, 2/21/2013 (staff writer, “Immigration Reform 2013: Obama Speaks On Leaked Bill; Senators Debate Federal ID Card For All Workers,” http://www.latinospost.com/articles/12667/ 20130221/immigration-reform-2013-obama-speaks-leaked-bill.htm, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Despite the leak of part of his immigration proposal in the press earlier this week Obama remains confident that the news of the bill drafted by the White House won't hurt the ongoing negotiations in Congress It certainly didn't jeopardize the entire process. The negotiations are still moving forward,"
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Leak of White House bill won’t hurt the negotiations—immigration reform still moving forward:
| 713 | 93 | 303 | 107 | 13 | 49 | 0.121495 | 0.457944 |
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2,713 |
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama denied on Wednesday that the leak of a backup immigration bill being drafted by the White House would hurt Senate negotiations on immigration reform and he confidently predicted Congress would pass legislation.¶ Republicans involved in a bipartisan Senate group working on an immigration overhaul package responded with criticism when details of the administration's plan surfaced in weekend news reports, despite Obama's promise to withhold his legislative proposals while lawmakers crafted their own.¶ "It certainly didn't jeopardize the entire process. The negotiations are still moving forward," Obama told San Antonio's KWEX television station, an affiliate of the Spanish-language network Univision, in an interview at the White House. He dismissed such news leaks as a common occurrence in Washington.
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Reuters, 2/20/2013 (“Obama says Immigration leak won't hurt reform talks,” http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/21/us-usa-immigration-obama-idUSBRE91K03L20130221, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Obama denied on Wednesday that the leak of a backup immigration bill being drafted by the White House would hurt Senate negotiations on immigration reform and he confidently predicted Congress would pass legislation It certainly didn't jeopardize the entire process. The negotiations are still moving forward," He dismissed such news leaks as a common occurrence in Washington.
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Immigration reform will pass now:
| 843 | 33 | 377 | 122 | 5 | 57 | 0.040984 | 0.467213 |
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2,714 |
The White House has defended the leaked proposal, saying it is an incomplete draft that is only being crafted as a fallback option in case the bipartisan talks in Congress "break down."¶ "We will be prepared with our own plan" if congressional action on the issue stalls, White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough said today on "Face the Nation."¶ "There's no evidence that [the group's efforts] have broken down yet," he added. "We're continuing to support that; we're involved in those efforts by providing them technical assistance, providing them ideas. And I hope Republicans and Democrats up there don't get involved in some typical Washington back and forth sideshow here."
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Jake Miller, 2/17/2013 (staff writer, “GOP: Leaked WH immigration plan "counterproductive",” http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57569812/gop-leaked-wh-immigration-plan-counterproductive/, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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The White House has defended the leaked proposal, saying it is an incomplete draft that is only being crafted as a fallback option in case the bipartisan talks in Congress "break down."¶ There's no evidence that [the group's efforts] have broken down yet,"
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White House is pushing the Congressional bill—will only go with its bill if Congress’ bill breaks down:
| 681 | 103 | 256 | 111 | 17 | 43 | 0.153153 | 0.387387 |
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2,715 |
Not all immigration-reform supporters think Obama has so much space to move on immigration without Congress.¶ Rep. Henry Cuellar (Texas), vice-chairman of the Democratic Steering and Policy Committee, said the president has some license to make border security moves and spending decisions.¶ "But pretty much he's done what he can do right now," Cuellar said Friday, "and after that it's up to Congress to address the rest of the issues."
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Mike Lillis, 2/16/2013 (staff writer, “Dems: Obama can act unilaterally on immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/administration/283583-dems-recognize-that-obama-can-act-unilaterally-on-immigration-reform, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Not all immigration-reform supporters think Obama has so much space to move on immigration without Congress the president has some license to make border security moves and spending decisions.¶ "But pretty much he's done what he can do right now," and after that it's up to Congress to address the rest of the issues."
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(--) Obama’s already done all he can do via executive order, immigration reform needs to be done through Congress:
| 438 | 114 | 318 | 70 | 19 | 54 | 0.271429 | 0.771429 |
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2013
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2,716 |
The new rule also serves as a reminder to Congress that in the face of continued impasse, the White House will use executive authority to make whatever tweaks it can to improve the U.S. immigration system. Of course, comprehensive, long-term changes can only be made by Congress. But short-term, piecemeal modifications are increasingly a favored Obama tool to get around the divisions on Capitol Hill.
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Jason Marczak, 1/11/2013 (director of Policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas, “New waiver shows immigration reform remains top priority for Obama,” http://www.voxxi.com/new-waiver-immigration-reform-obama/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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the White House will use executive authority to make whatever tweaks it can to improve the U.S. immigration system. Of course, comprehensive, long-term changes can only be made by Congress
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(--) Comprehensive immigration reform can only be done by Congress:
| 402 | 67 | 188 | 65 | 10 | 30 | 0.153846 | 0.461538 |
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2,717 |
Rep. Joseph Crowley (N.Y.), vice chairman of the Democratic Caucus, echoed that message, saying Obama is "not just beating the drum," for immigration reform, "he's actually the drum major."¶ "There are limitations as to what he can do with executive order," Crowley said Wednesday, "but he did say that if Congress continued to fail to act that he would take steps and measures to enact common-sense executive orders to move this country forward."
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Mike Lillis, 2/16/2013 (staff writer, “Dems: Obama can act unilaterally on immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/administration/283583-dems-recognize-that-obama-can-act-unilaterally-on-immigration-reform, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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There are limitations as to what he can do with executive order," but he did say that if Congress continued to fail to act that he would take steps and measures to enact common-sense executive orders to move this country forward."
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(--) Executive order approach has limits:
| 447 | 41 | 230 | 73 | 6 | 41 | 0.082192 | 0.561644 |
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2,718 |
1. Comprehensive immigration reform¶ Obama says his support for comprehensive immigration reform has been limited only by Congress's inability to put a bill on his desk. In 2007, then-Senator Obama voted for the comprehensive immigration bill backed by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D) of Massachusetts, Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona, and President Bush. The bill never reached the floor for a vote, but it would have provided a path to citizenship for 12 million to 20 million illegal immigrants, established a two-year guest-worker program, added 20,000 border patrol agents, built 370 miles of border fencing, and revamped the federal employment-verification system.
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Christian Science Monitor, 9/7/2012 (“Obama vs. Romney 101: 5 ways they differ on immigration,” http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2012/0907/Obama-vs.-Romney-101-5-ways-they-differ-on-immigration/Comprehensive-immigration-reform, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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Obama says his support for comprehensive immigration reform has been limited only by Congress's inability to put a bill on his desk Senator Obama voted for the comprehensive immigration bill backed by Kennedy of Massachusetts
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(--) Comprehensive immigration reform limited by Congress’ ability to put a bill on Obama’s desk:
| 662 | 97 | 225 | 101 | 15 | 35 | 0.148515 | 0.346535 |
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Samford
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2,719 |
The State of the Union address will be important to beginning that argument. White House spokesman Jay Carney said last week that immigration reform would likely be mentioned in Obama's speech. It wouldn't be a surprise: His past two State of the Union speeches mentioned the need for immigration reform, particularly on the high-skilled side and in aid for Dreamers, undocumented young people who would be helped by the Dream Act and reform. The references to immigration in both speeches were roughly the same -- down to the line -- and, as is typical for State of the Union speeches, didn't go into much policy detail.¶ That speech this year may not have much detail either. But it will be an important first statement of Obama's intention to do something on immigration quickly, and in one piece. Even though previous discussions have focused on comprehensive immigration reform, many Republican lawmakers want it to be done piece by piece. Administration officials don't think that would work, and neither does the president, who has repeatedly said it needs to be done in full.
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Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push In Second Term,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/obama-immigration-reform_n_2463388.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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immigration reform would likely be mentioned in Obama's speech it will be an important first statement of Obama's intention to do something on immigration quickly, and in one piece. Even though previous discussions have focused on comprehensive immigration reform, many Republican lawmakers want it to be done piece by piece. Administration officials don't think that would work, and neither does the president, who has repeatedly said it needs to be done in full.
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(--) Obama will push for comprehensive immigration reform—not piecemeal measures:
| 1,083 | 81 | 464 | 181 | 10 | 73 | 0.055249 | 0.403315 |
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2,720 |
Mr. Obama and Senate Democrats will propose the changes in one comprehensive bill, the officials said, resisting efforts by some Republicans to break the overhaul into smaller pieces — separately addressing young illegal immigrants, migrant farmworkers or highly skilled foreigners — which might be easier for reluctant members of their party to accept.
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Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast Push,” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/us/politics/obama-plans-to-push-congress-on-immigration-overhaul.html?_r=0, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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. Obama will propose the changes in one comprehensive bill, the officials said, resisting efforts by some Republicans to break the overhaul into smaller pieces
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(--) Obama will push for comprehensive immigration reform:
| 353 | 58 | 159 | 53 | 8 | 25 | 0.150943 | 0.471698 |
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2,721 |
Childress and others who oppose any form of legalization for undocumented immigrants acknowledge that, so far, the issue hasn’t generated as much heat as it did in 2006 and 2007, even though Obama has made immigration reform a top priority this year and a bipartisan group of lawmakers is moving fast to get a bill passed as quickly as possible, perhaps this summer.¶ “I am trying to light a fire here and get the passions burning again, and I know that, in the end, Americans will melt down the phone lines in Washington against amnesty,” Childress said. “We are not there yet.”¶ They blame fatigue for sucking some of the life out of the “anti-amnesty” movement. Opponents also say there is a feeling that passage of an immigration-reform bill may now be inevitable given the renewed push by key Republicans to pass immigration reforms to attract increasingly influential Latino voters following the drubbing GOP nominee Mitt Romney received from them in November.¶ “It is tiring. There may be a sense that people are a little worn out,” said Roy Beck, executive director of NumbersUSA. The Washington, D.C., group advocates for restrictions on immigration and has organized campaigns in the past urging its members to call, fax or e-mail lawmakers to oppose immigration reform.
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Daniel González, 3/7/2013 (staff writer, “Foes of ‘amnesty’ mobilizing to help defeat immigration reform,” http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/20130305amnesty-foes-mobilizing-flood-congress.html, Accessed 3/8/2013, rwg)
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Childress and others who oppose any form of legalization for undocumented immigrants acknowledge that, so far, the issue hasn’t generated as much heat as it did in 2006 and 2007, I am trying to light a fire here and get the passions burning again Americans will melt down the phone lines in Washington against amnesty,” We are not there yet They blame fatigue for sucking some of the life out of the “anti-amnesty” movement Opponents also say there is a feeling that passage of an immigration-reform bill may now be inevitable given the renewed push by key Republicans to pass immigration reforms to attract increasingly influential Latino voters There may be a sense that people are a little worn out
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(--) Anti-amnesty movement has weakened:
| 1,280 | 40 | 701 | 213 | 5 | 120 | 0.023474 | 0.56338 |
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Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, a Washington, D.C., group that advocates for comprehensive immigration reform, doesn’t think opposition will be as strong this time because the influence of “anti-amnesty” groups has been diminished by the November election, when Obama swept more than 70 percent of the Latino vote. Romney campaigned on a strident, anti-immigrant message, saying he favored self-deportation and was opposed to letting illegal immigrants gain legal status.¶ “You’ll see strong opposition, but I don’t think it will be anywhere near the kind of volume or visibility of 2006 and 2007, in large part because I think Republicans have realized that by branding themselves as anti-Latino, it hasn’t been very good for them electorally,” Sharry said.
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Daniel González, 3/7/2013 (staff writer, “Foes of ‘amnesty’ mobilizing to help defeat immigration reform,” http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/20130305amnesty-foes-mobilizing-flood-congress.html, Accessed 3/8/2013, rwg)
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Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice doesn’t think opposition will be as strong this time because the influence of “anti-amnesty” groups has been diminished by the November election You’ll see strong opposition, but I don’t think it will be anywhere near the kind of volume or visibility of 2006 and 2007, in large part because I think Republicans have realized that by branding themselves as anti-Latino, it hasn’t been very good for them electorally
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(--) Influence of anti-amnesty groups will be weaker:
| 779 | 53 | 460 | 119 | 8 | 74 | 0.067227 | 0.621849 |
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To be sure, immigration reform could survive even if House Republicans don’t allow a path to citizenship to be included in the initial House compromise. If the Senate passes its compromise by wide bipartisan margins, the pressure on House Republicans to allow a vote on it will be extremely intense, and it could pass mostly with Dem support (which is how the fiscal cliff deal was resolved). But it would be far better if the emerging House compromise does contain a path to citizenship. If it doesn’t, it will be yet another sign of just how hostile House Republicans are to genuine immigration reform — and how hard it will be to achieve.
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Sargent 2/4/2013 (Greg, “How House Republicans can kill immigration reform”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/02/04/how-house-republicans-can-kill-immigration-reform/, CMR)
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immigration could survive even if House Republicans don’t allow a path to citizenship If the Senate passes its compromise by wide bipartisan margins, the pressure on House Republicans to allow a vote on it will be extremely intense it could pass mostly with Dem support how fiscal cliff was resolved
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(--) Citizenship Won’t hold-up passage
| 641 | 39 | 299 | 113 | 5 | 50 | 0.044248 | 0.442478 |
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On the Republican side, gang-of-eighters Jeff Flake, R-Ariz. and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., each worked on immigration reform bills in the past. Despite indication from Republican rank and file that any provision to grant citizenship to undocumented people will not see the light of day, the pair, joined by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., have indicated they believe the GOP is warming up to the idea and will come around. McCain received $17 million from the sectors most likely to be involved in the immigration talks, although a vast majority of the money came when he was running for President in 2008. Flake has received more than $1.2 million over the years from the industry and Graham received $2.36 million.
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Narayanswamy 2/13/2013, Anupama, Projects Editor for Real Time Investigations, a Sunlight Foundation Project, former researcher with the Center for public Integrity; “Key players in immigration debate have support of special interests,” Sunlight Foundation, http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/2013/immigration-reform/
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gang-of-eighters Flake and Graham each worked on immigration in the past Despite indication from Republican rank and file that any provision to grant citizenship to undocumented people will not see the light of day, the pair, joined by McCain have indicated they believe the GOP is warming up to the idea and will come around
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(--) GOP will eventually cave on citizenship in the status quo
| 709 | 62 | 325 | 118 | 11 | 55 | 0.09322 | 0.466102 |
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Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), considered a party leader on immigration reform and a top contender for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, outlined a blueprint for an immigration reform bill that included a pathway to citizenship for immigrants living in the country illegally. Rep. Paul Ryan, who ran as the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, quickly threw his support behind the outline.
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Daniel Strauss, 1/18/2013 (staff writer, “Reid: No immigration reform bill will pass Senate without pathway to citizenship,” http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/278033-reid-no-immigration-reform-bill-will-pass-senate-without-pathway-to-citizenship, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Rubio outlined a blueprint for an immigration reform bill that included a pathway to citizenship for immigrants living in the country illegally. Rep. Paul Ryan, who ran as the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, quickly threw his support behind the outline
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(--) Republicans willing to agree on the pathway to citizenship:
| 401 | 64 | 258 | 62 | 10 | 40 | 0.16129 | 0.645161 |
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2013
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An Associated Press poll announced this week finds that the largest shift in views has been inside the Republican Party itself. The Associated Press poll found 52 percent of Republicans now favor creating a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.¶ That’s up 22 percentage points since 2010, explaining much of the nationwide increase in support.
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Challen Stephens, 1/23/2013 (staff writer, “Illegal immigration: Most Republicans now favor pathway to citizenship,” http://blog.al.com/wire/2013/01/illegal_ immigration_most_repub.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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The Associated Press poll found 52 percent of Republicans now favor creating a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.¶ That’s up 22 percentage points since 2010, explaining much of the nationwide increase in support.
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(--) Republicans increasingly agree on pathway to citizenship:
| 349 | 62 | 221 | 55 | 8 | 34 | 0.145455 | 0.618182 |
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Frank Sharry, a longtime immigrant rights' advocate and executive director of America's Voice, acknowledged that the same-sex partner issue will spark controversy but does not believe it will derail immigration reform.¶ "I'm sure it will be the subject of a huge amendment fight when an immigration reform bill comes to the Senate floor," said Sharry, who supports the same-sex partner provision. "But I think it will ultimately survive. I don't think it will be a deal-breaker."¶ Sharry said Republicans are anxious to court Latinos, who are the fastest growing ethnic group in America. Latino voters overwhelming supported Obama and Democratic congressional candidates in last fall's election, in part because of Republican opposition to any immigration reform that would offer illegal immigrants a chance to earn their way to legal status and citizenship.¶ "Republicans are trying to save themselves from certain electoral doom by reaching out to Latino voters," Sharry said. "That's a much bigger concern for them than a same-sex partner provision. It may bring some howls of protest, but I'm optimistic it won't bring down the reform process."¶ Gay rights' activists agree.¶ "I think the country has changed and has come a long way on both the issue of gay marriage and the issue of immigration reform," said Felipe Sousa-Rodriguez, a Tampa, Fla., resident and national field director for GetEQUAL, a gay rights' group. "If we're really going to fix our broken immigration system, we can't leave anyone out. We need to fix it for everyone."
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Kelly 2/8/2013 (Erin Kelly, Gannett Washington Bureau, “Gay rights becoming controversy in immigration reform,” USA Today, 2/8/13, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/02/08/gay-rights-immigration-reform/1903119/)
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the same-sex partner issue will spark controversy but does not believe it will derail immigration reform. it will be the subject of a huge amendment fight But I think it will ultimately survive. I don't think it will be a deal-breaker." Republicans are anxious to court Latinos Republicans are trying to save themselves from certain electoral doom That's a much bigger concern for them than a same-sex partner provision It may bring howls of protest, but I'm optimistic it won't bring down the reform process the country has changed and has come a long way on both the issue of gay marriage and the issue of immigration reform," said Sousa-Rodriguez
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(--) LGBTQ benefits won’t derail the process – GOP interests in courting Latino votes outweigh their opposition
| 1,546 | 111 | 650 | 247 | 17 | 110 | 0.068826 | 0.445344 |
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But immigration reform activists asked Obama at a White House meeting to stick to his position that 11 million people should not have to wait until the border is declared secure.¶ "It can't be a trigger that keeps moving the goal posts and is indefinable. So it has to be meaningful, real and tangible for us to accept it," said Janet Murguia, president of the Hispanic group National Council of La Raza.¶ The Obama administration points to a steep drop in illegal immigration from Mexico in recent years and the deployment of thousands of Border Patrol officers as evidence that the border is more secure.¶ Spokesman Jay Carney said the White House had already met many of the Republican criteria for border security.¶ "Close to all of those goals, if not all of those goals, have been met because of the president's commitment to enhanced border security," he said.¶ Congressional Republicans have become more willing to work on an immigration reform after Hispanics delivered a clear message in the 2012 election. Seventy-one percent of Latinos voted for Obama, compared to 27 percent for his Republican rival Mitt Romney.
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Reuters 2/5/2013 (“House Republicans try to chip away at immigration reform”, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/06/us-usa-immigration-idUSBRE9130V620130206, CMR)
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activists asked Obama to stick to his position It can't be a trigger that keeps moving the goal posts and is indefinable Obama points to a steep drop in illegal immigration and the deployment of thousands of Border Patrol officers as evidence that the border is more secure the White House had already met many of the Republican criteria for border security all of those goals, have been met Congressional Republicans have become more willing to work on an immigration after Hispanics delivered a clear message in the 2012 election
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(--) Border security won’t hold-up reform – Obama fighting off objections
| 1,125 | 74 | 531 | 188 | 11 | 90 | 0.058511 | 0.478723 |
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Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is "cautiously optimistic" that if President Obama and the Senate can agree on an immigration reform plan, legislators in the House will follow suit.¶ McCain, in an interview with Univision set to air on Sunday, was asked what would happen if House Republicans voted against immigration reform.¶ "Well, I hate to obviously predict what might happen," McCain, a member of a bipartisan group of senators in the Senate that unveiled a framework for passing immigration reform, said.¶ McCain added that he is "cautiously optimistic that with the President and the Senate basically acting together that that would be sufficient to have the House, to agree with that, if it’s reasonable with the majority of the American people."¶ But McCain cautioned that the consequences of the House rejecting an immigration-reform plan are hard to imagine.¶ "So it’s hard for me to predict," McCain continued. "But I think you, I know what you’re referring to, and that is the election results with a smaller number of our Hispanic/Latino citizens that are voting for Republicans. We understand that."¶ Both Republicans and Democrats have expressed interest in passing immigration reform. A major sticking points in negotiations so far, however, has been whether to include a pathway to citizenship for immigrants living in the country illegally. The immigration framework crafted by McCain and seven other senators includes a pathway to citizenship as long as border security is first strengthened.¶ McCain said he is not sure whether there will be enough votes in the Senate to pass a reform plan that includes a pathway to citizenship.¶ "You know, I don’t know yet, because we haven’t finished the package. I know that the attitude of the American people is that," McCain said. "And I think that there’s a realization on my side of the aisle that we need to have this resolved. And that people should have a pathway to citizenship. But look, I’ve lost before and so for me to predict would be premature. But I do think that the attitude overall of the American people and members of the Senate is significantly improved to the point where I am cautiously optimistic."¶ Also on Friday, Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Calif.) said a secretive bipartisan group of House members is close to unveiling an immigration reform agreement. Becerra has reportedly participated in the group’s negotiations.¶ "The reality is that we are on the cusp of actually having an opportunity to put forward a bipartisan proposal in the House of Representatives," Becerra said.
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Strauss 2/8/13 (Daniel Strauss, The Hill, “McCain 'cautiously optimistic' House would follow Senate on immigration,” http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/282055-mccain-cautiously-optimistic-house-would-follow-senate-on-immigration)
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McCain is "cautiously optimistic" that if President Obama and the Senate can agree on immigration reform legislators in the House will follow suit McCain added that he is "cautiously optimistic that with the President and the Senate basically acting together that that would be sufficient to have the House, Rep Becerra said a secretive bipartisan group of House members is close to unveiling an immigration reform agreement The reality is that we are on the cusp of actually having an opportunity to put forward a bipartisan proposal in the House of Representatives," Becerra said
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(--) The House will follow the Senate’s lead – even McCain thinks so
| 2,558 | 68 | 581 | 418 | 13 | 94 | 0.0311 | 0.22488 |
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Hoyer's position aligns him with President Obama as lawmakers tread carefully into the immigration-reform debate that's sure to consume a great deal of Capitol Hill's political oxygen this year.¶ "It's somewhat a subject[ive] judgment whether the borders are secure or not secure," Hoyer told reporters in the Capitol. "Nobody believes that the borders in a democratic, open country are ever going to be totally non-porous.¶ "I think the two [citizenship and security] are related," he added, "but ought not to be contingent upon the other."¶ Often a third rail in Washington, the issue of immigration reform has moved near the top of Congress's priority list this year largely as a result of November's elections, in which more than 70 percent of Hispanic voters chose Obama over GOP contender Mitt Romney.¶ Hoping to undercut that trend, Republicans – long opposed to comprehensive reform, particularly so-called "amnesty" provisions that would carve a pathway to citizenship for the nation's estimated 11 million illegal immigrants – have appeared much more open to an overhaul since the election.¶ Last week, a bipartisan group of influential senators unveiled a sweeping package that would bolster border security and guest worker programs – both desired by Republicans – while creating a pathway to citizenship for those living in the country illegally, a demand from the Democrats.¶ The Senate's plan would make the citizenship benefits “contingent upon securing the border" – a step Obama rejected when he outlined a similar plan a few days later.¶ The House Judiciary Committee held its first hearing on the thorny subject Tuesday, with the Senate vowing to follow later this month.¶ Hoyer said Tuesday that he's hopeful Congress will send a comprehensive reform bill to Obama this year.¶ "The Democrats want to see a comprehensive immigration bill, [and] I think the Republicans, frankly, think they need to be supportive of a comprehensive immigration bill," he said. "So combine the wants and the needs [and] I think there are good prospects."
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Lillis 2/5 (Mike, “Hoyer favors Obama's immigration plan over Senate's”, http://thehill.com/homenews/house/281209-hoyer-favors-obamas-immigration-plan-over-senates#ixzz2K9CilmFm, CMR)
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lawmakers tread carefully into the immigration debate that's sure to consume a great deal of Capitol Hill's political oxygen immigration has moved near the top of Congress's priority list Republicans appear much more open to an overhaul a bipartisan group unveiled a sweeping package Democrats want a comprehensive bill the Republicans need a bill there are good prospects
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Top priority – bipartisan support makes passage likely
| 2,055 | 55 | 372 | 327 | 8 | 58 | 0.024465 | 0.17737 |
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President Barack Obama laid out his ambitious agenda for the next four years Tuesday night, calling on Congress to raise the minimum wage, reform the nation’s tax code, tackle climate change and gun control and submit a budget proposal that responsibly addresses the nation’s fiscal situation. Whether or not these initiatives become law depends on whether Obama can convince Republicans to follow his economic and social policy roadmap. The president may have an easier job of building support for his plan to overhaul the country’s immigration laws. Republicans applauded loudly as Obama delivered his remarks on immigration during the State of the Union address.¶ “Our economy is stronger when we harness the talents and ingenuity of striving, hopeful immigrants,” Obama said. “And right now, leaders from the business, labor, law enforcement, and faith communities all agree that the time has come to pass comprehensive immigration reform.”¶ Obama showed his commitment to comprehensive immigration reform last night, says Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations and author of The Closing of the American Border: Terrorism, Immigration, and Security Since 9/11. The president will push Congress to draft new immigration laws by this Spring, says Alden.¶ Last November’s presidential election could be the reason why Republicans have had a change of heart when it comes to immigration. Seventy-one percent of Latinos supported President Obama over Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.¶ “Republicans were chastened by their losses in November and how poorly they did among Hispanic voters,” Alden notes. “There is a desire on both sides of the isle to move forward with this.”¶ The Republicans’ recent attitude shift toward immigration reform has made Alden optimistic that a deal will get done. But he argues that lawmakers need to change their approach to immigration reform. Focusing the nation’s resources on securing the U.S.-Mexico border should not be the center of new immigration policy, Alden says.
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Korn 2/13/2013, Morgan, “Pres. Obama: ‘The Time Has Come to Pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform’,” The Daily Ticker
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Obama laid out his ambitious agenda Tuesday night, calling to raise the minimum wage, reform the tax code, tackle climate change and gun control The president may have an easier job of building support for his plan to overhaul immigration Republicans applauded loudly as Obama delivered his remarks on immigration Obama showed his commitment to comprehensive immigration reform The president will push Congress to draft new immigration laws There is a desire on both sides of the isle to move forward with this recent attitude shift toward immigration reform has made Alden optimistic that a deal will get done
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(--) Other parts of State of Union not squeezing out immigration reform:
| 2,044 | 72 | 610 | 316 | 12 | 99 | 0.037975 | 0.313291 |
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It's still unclear what exact role the president will play, but sources say he does plan to lead on the issue. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the House immigration subcommittee, said the White House seems sensitive to the fact that Republicans and Democrats need to work out the issue in Congress -- no one is expecting a fiscal cliff-style arrangement jammed by leadership -- while keeping the president heavily involved.
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Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push In Second Term,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/obama-immigration-reform_n_2463388.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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It's still unclear what exact role the president will play, but sources say he does plan to lead on the issue the White House seems sensitive to the fact that Republicans and Democrats need to work out the issue in Congress -- no one is expecting a fiscal cliff-style arrangement jammed by leadership -- while keeping the president heavily involved.
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(--) Obama will lead on the issue of immigration reform:
| 440 | 56 | 349 | 73 | 10 | 60 | 0.136986 | 0.821918 |
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President Barack Obama's language during his inauguration speech gave the U.S. a glimpse of his apparent intentions to move forward on long-awaited reforms to the country's immigration system.¶ "Our journey is not complete until we find a better way to welcome the striving, hopeful immigrants who still see America as a land of opportunity; until bright young students and engineers are enlisted in our workforce rather than expelled from our country," Obama said during his speech.¶ Obama rode into office in January 2009 with immigration reform as one of his priorities, but critics have claimed that the president failed to take the lead on immigration policy changes and deportations have increased under his administration.¶ However, the Obama administration proposed sweeping new legislation earlier this month that would offer a pathway to citizenship for millions of immigrants within the U.S., to be met under certain conditions, while also changing current immigration laws in order to allow immigrants with family members in the country to stay under an extended amount of time while applying for citizenship.
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Jean-Paul Salamanca, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, “Immigration Reform Obama 2013,” http://www.latinospost.com/articles/10158/20130122/immigration-reform-obama-2013-inauguration-speech-hints.htm, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama's language during his inauguration speech gave the U.S. a glimpse of his apparent intentions to move forward on long-awaited reforms to the country's immigration system Obama rode into office in January 2009 with immigration reform as one of his priorities, but critics have claimed that the president failed to take the lead on immigration policy changes However, the Obama administration proposed sweeping new legislation earlier this month that would offer a pathway to citizenship for millions of immigrants within the U.S.,
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(--) Obama is taking the lead on immigration reform now—past examples are irrelevant:
| 1,121 | 85 | 534 | 174 | 13 | 82 | 0.074713 | 0.471264 |
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Supporters of comprehensive changes say that the elections were nothing less than a mandate in their favor, and that they are still optimistic that Mr. Obama is prepared to lead the fight.¶ “Republicans must demonstrate a reasoned approach to start to rebuild their relationship with Latino voters,” said Clarissa Martinez de Castro, the director of immigration policy at the National Council of La Raza, a Latino organization. “Democrats must demonstrate they can deliver on a promise.”
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Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast Push,” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/us/politics/obama-plans-to-push-congress-on-immigration-overhaul.html?_r=0, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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Supporters of comprehensive changes say that the elections were nothing less than a mandate in their favor, and that they are still optimistic that Mr. Obama is prepared to lead the fight
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(--) Obama will lead the charge on immigration reform:
| 487 | 54 | 187 | 76 | 9 | 32 | 0.118421 | 0.421053 |
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Obama also was more upbeat on the prospects of universal background checks, including for purchases at gun shows.¶ "The good news is that we're starting to see a consensus emerge about the action Congress needs to take," he said. "The vast majority of Americans, including a majority of gun owners, support requiring criminal background checks for anyone trying to buy a gun. There's no reason why we can't get that done."¶ He urged Americans to call their members of Congress to push for his entire package of stronger gun controls. "Tell them now is the time for action."
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AP 2/5/2013 (“Obama stands firm on gun control despite long odds”, http://www.lewistownsentinel.com/page/content.detail/id/288266/Obama-stands-firm-on-gun-control-despite-long-odds-.html?isap=1&nav=5016, CMR)
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Obama was upbeat on the prospects we're starting to see a consensus emerge The vast majority of Americans support criminal background checks There's no reason why we can't get that done." He urged Americans to call their members of Congress to push for his entire package
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(--) Won’t be a fight and public pushes, not Obama
| 573 | 51 | 271 | 98 | 10 | 46 | 0.102041 | 0.469388 |
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The Washington Post's Ed O'Keefe and David Farenthold assessed the hearing in full and concluded, "A consensus is emerging among lawmakers for an expansion of background checks for gun buyers, a proposal with far more bipartisan support than a reinstatement of the federal assault-weapons ban."¶ The NewsHour put together a detailed report on the day's drama. Watch here or below:¶ More of our coverage of the gun debate can be found here.¶ On immigration, Mr. Obama participated in interviews with two television networks catering to Spanish-language audiences. On Telemundo the president said he won't pull back on enforcement of the law or scale back deportation. He acknowledged it could be a tough political battle ahead but emphasized his commitment to the issue.¶ "The one thing I can guarantee is my effort," Mr. Obama told Telemundo. "I can guarantee that I will put everything I've got behind it. We're putting our shoulder to the wheel."¶ He told Univision that he wants to see legislation move forward swiftly.¶ "If they are on a path as they have already said, where they want to get a bill done by March, then I think that's a reasonable timeline and I think we can get that done. I'm not going to lay down a particular date because I want to give them a little room to debate," he said. "If it slips a week, that's one thing. If it starts slipping three months, that's a problem."¶ The New York Times' Michael Shear and Mark Landler report that administration aides are sounding confident notes about political momentum being on the president's side.¶ Politico's Lois Romano writes of an effort afoot in the House by four Republicans and four Democrats. She reports they "had hoped to put forth a statement of principles as early as Friday, but sources say that is unlikely" and it could be closer to Feb. 12, the day of the State of the Union.¶ With Mr. Obama's annual address to lawmakers less than two weeks away and his plans to make his case at campaign-style events outside of Washington, the pressure on Congress will only increase.
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Bellantoni 1/31/2013 (Christina, “Obama Keeps Up Pressure for Gun Laws, Immigration Reform”, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2013/01/obama-continues-full-court-press-for-gun-immigration-agendas.html, CMR)
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A consensus is emerging among lawmakers for an expansion of background checks for gun buyers immigration The one thing I can guarantee is my effort Obama told I can guarantee that I will put everything I've got behind it he wants to see legislation move forward swiftly Shear and Landler report that administration aides are sounding confident notes about political momentum being on the president's side With Obama's annual address to lawmakers less than two weeks away and his plans to make his case at campaign-style events outside of Washington, the pressure on Congress will only increase.
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(--) Obama will focus capital on immigration first
| 2,054 | 50 | 594 | 353 | 8 | 97 | 0.022663 | 0.274788 |
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The expected ¶ An appeal for gun control ¶ In the two months since the mass shooting at an elementary school in Newtown, Conn., U.S. President Barack Obama has made it clear that he intends to push for further restrictions on gun sales. He reiterated that call on Tuesday night, highlighting two policies - universal background checks for buyers and limiting the amount of ammunition in magazines - that appear to have bipartisan support.
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Slater 2/14/2013, Joanna, “Six Takeaways From The State of the Union,” The Globe and Mail (Canada), Lexis
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Obama has made it clear that he intends to push for further restrictions on gun sales highlighting two policies - universal background checks for buyers and limiting the amount of ammunition in magazines - that appear to have bipartisan support
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(--) Obama’s actual gun agenda is not controversial
| 438 | 51 | 244 | 74 | 8 | 40 | 0.108108 | 0.540541 |
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Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. paid a House call to Senate Democrats’ weekly policy lunch Thursday, pushing the president’s gun control agenda and calling the implementation of stricter gun laws a political “no brainer.”¶ Words come easier to Biden in a mob of reporters, however, than they do to Senate Democratic leaders when they craft legislative text.¶ Democrats have taken their first steps toward legislation by holding Senate Judiciary Committee hearings, but the timeline for an actual bill, whatever that might look like, is unclear. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., has said he would like any gun violence bill to move through the committee in regular order, something that would happen perhaps at the same time the panel considers a massive immigration overhaul.¶ Biden, who was tasked by President Barack Obama to craft the administration’s gun policy, visited his old stomping ground to remind his colleagues that gun control is a top priority of Obama’s, even if the caucus hasn’t come forward with a clear strategy to proceed and handfuls of members are reluctant to touch gun control at all.¶ “The visual image of those 20 little children being riddled with bullets has not only traumatized the nation but ... it’s like the straw that broke the camel’s back,” Biden told reporters after meeting with Democrats in the Mansfield Room, right off the Senate floor. “I made the case for not only assault weapons but for the entire set of recommendations the president laid out.”
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Shiner 1/31/2013 (Meredith, “Biden Continues Upbeat Mission on Gun Control”, http://www.rollcall.com/news/biden_continues_upbeat_mission_on_gun_control-222070-1.html?pg=2, CMR)
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Biden paid a House call pushing the president’s gun control agenda and calling the implementation of stricter gun laws a political “no brainer.”¶ Biden was tasked by Obama to craft the administration’s gun policy, Biden told reporters I made the case
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(--) Biden pushes, not Obama
| 1,504 | 29 | 250 | 247 | 5 | 41 | 0.020243 | 0.165992 |
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President Barack Obama will launch a campaign next week aimed at overhauling the nation's flawed immigration system and creating legal status for millions, as a bipartisan Senate group nears agreement on achieving the same goals.¶ The proposals from Obama and lawmakers will mark the start of what is expected to be a contentious and emotional process with deep political implications. Latino voters overwhelmingly backed Obama in the 2012 election, leaving Republicans grappling for a way to regain their standing with an increasingly powerful pool of voters.¶ The president will press his case for immigration changes during a trip to Las Vegas Tuesday. The Senate working group is also aiming to outline its proposals next week, according to a Senate aide.¶ Administration officials say Obama's second-term immigration push will be a continuation of the principles he outlined during his first four years in office but failed to act on. He is expected to revive his little-noticed 2011 immigration "blueprint," which calls for a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants that includes paying fines and back taxes; increased border security; mandatory penalties for businesses that employ unauthorized immigrants; and improvements to the legal immigration system, including giving green cards to high-skilled workers and lifting caps on legal immigration for the immediate family members of U.S. citizens.¶ "What has been absent in the time since he put those principles forward has been a willingness by Republicans, generally speaking, to move forward with comprehensive immigration reform," White House press secretary Jay Carney said. "What he hopes is that that dynamic has changed."¶ The political dynamic does appear to have shifted following the November election. Despite making little progress on immigration in his first term, Obama won more than 70 percent of the Latino vote, in part because of the conservative positions on immigration that Republican nominee Mitt Romney staked out during the GOP primary. Latino voters accounted for 10 percent of the electorate in November.¶ The president met privately Friday morning with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus to discuss his next steps on immigration. Among those in the meeting was Rep. Linda Sanchez, D-Calif., who said Obama told lawmakers "immigration reform is his number one legislative priority."¶ That could bump back the president's efforts to seek legislation enacting stricter gun laws, another issue he has vowed to make a top second term priority.
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AP 1/26/2013 (“Obama, senators launching immigration push”, http://www.newsday.com/news/nation/obama-senators-launching-immigration-push-1.4514347, CMR)
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Obama will launch a campaign next week aimed at overhauling immigration The proposals from Obama will mark the start of a contentious process The president will press his case for immigration Obama's push will be a continuation of the principles he outlined during his first four years in office pathway to citizenship border security penalties for businesses that employ unauthorized immigrants improvements to legal immigration green cards to high-skilled workers lifting caps on legal immigration for immediate family members Obama told lawmakers "immigration reform is his number one legislative priority."¶ That could bump back the president's efforts to seek stricter gun laws
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(--) Immigration 1st – comes before everything, including gun control
| 2,530 | 70 | 682 | 388 | 10 | 102 | 0.025773 | 0.262887 |
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President Barack Obama’s proposed immigration law changes and gun control measures should be able to pass Congress, said David Plouffe, Obama’s senior political adviser.¶ “Newtown has changed the debate,” Plouffe said on CNN’s “State of the Union” today, referring to the Connecticut town where 20 schoolchildren and 6 educators were killed last month. “Sadly, it took a tragedy like that, but you’re seeing a lot of people -- by the way Democrats and Republicans -- think differently about this issue since this tragedy.”¶ Enlarge image Obama Takes Oath at White House to Begin Second Term¶ U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts administers the oath of office as U.S. President Barack Obama is sworn in for a second term in the Blue Room of the White House in Washington, D.C. on Sunday. Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/Pool via Bloomberg¶ Obama was officially sworn in today, as required by the Constitution, in a small ceremony at the White House. He will take the oath a second time tomorrow in a public event on the steps of the U.S. Capitol. Chief Justice John Roberts will administer both oaths.¶ Vice President Joe Biden was also sworn in today for a second term by Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor at his residence at the Naval Observatory in Washington. Later, Obama and Biden laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknowns in Arlington National Cemetery.¶ Obama has staked out a second term agenda of overhauling immigration, gun control and the tax code. Plouffe took an optimistic stance, saying that the time has come for both immigration change and gun control.¶ Republican Reaction¶ U.S. Senator Roy Blunt, a Republican from Missouri, said he wants to see a detailed gun control plan from Obama.¶ “Let’s do things better rather than take an opportunity to go after an old agenda,” Blunt said today on “Fox News Sunday” program. “There has to be a plan that could possibly work or the president won’t get it done.”¶ Senator John Barrasso, a Republican from Wyoming, said the president’s plan won’t pass Congress and he doubts Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will bring it to the floor.¶ “He has six Democrats up for election in two years in states where the president received fewer than 42 percent of the vote,” Barrasso said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Democrats control the Senate with 53 seats to 45 Republican seats. The two independent senators caucus with the Democrats.¶ “He doesn’t want his Democrats to have to choose between their own constituencies and the president’s positions,” Barrasso. He said the president is focusing too much on gun control and ignoring mental health and violence in society.¶ Economic Wreckage¶ Obama’s first term was largely consumed by repairing economic wreckage from the 2008 financial crisis and getting his health care law passed. His second term is starting with efforts to reach a compromise with Congress on raising the debt ceiling and cutting deficit spending.¶ A Republican plan for a short-term debt ceiling increase, giving the Treasury Department three more months of borrowing capacity, is “progress,” Plouffe said on the “Fox News Sunday” program. “We don’t think short-term is smart for the economy” because it doesn’t offer certainty, he said on Fox.¶ The debt limit has been periodically raised since its creation in 1917, when Congress and President Woodrow Wilson authorized the Treasury to issue long-term securities to help finance entry into World War I. Since 1960, Congress has raised or revised the limit 79 times, including 49 times under Republican presidents, according to the Treasury Department, noting the U.S. never has defaulted on its obligations.¶ Three Months¶ “Three months is no way to run the economy or railroad or anything else so that’s not ideal,” Plouffe said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program. Still, “it’s a significant moment that the Republican party now has moved off their position that the only way they’re going to pay their bills is if they get the correct kind of concessions.”¶ The Senate will pass a budget this year, U.S. Senator Charles Schumer, a Democrat from New York, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program.¶ “It’s going to have revenues in it and our Republican colleagues better get used to that fact,” Schumer said.¶ House Republicans last week said they plan to vote on a three-month extension of U.S. borrowing authority in an effort to force the Democratic-led Senate to adopt a budget.¶ Financing for government agencies is scheduled to lapse in March. Congress faces two other fiscal deadlines in the next 90 days, and House Republicans plan to use those debates -- rather than the struggle over the debt limit -- to try to force spending cuts.¶ The last time Congress fought over the ceiling, Obama signed an increase on Aug. 2, 2011, the day that the Treasury warned U.S. borrowing authority would expire.¶ Credit Rating¶ Standard & Poor’s cut the nation’s credit rating. Still, Treasury bond investors -- who most directly bear the risk of any government default -- haven’t shown alarm. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes declined to 2.56 percent on Aug. 5, 2011, the day of the S&P downgrade, and continued to fall.¶ Yields on 10-year Treasuries, a benchmark for everything from mortgages to corporate borrowing costs, are down from more than 5 percent in 2007, before the financial crisis of 2008.¶ Treasury 10-year notes rose last week for a second week for the first time since November as the absence of a resolution to the impasse the U.S. debt ceiling sustained demand for the safest securities. The 10-year note yield fell this week three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.84 percent, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader pricing.¶ Plouffe said Congress has the votes to pass Obama’s agenda.¶ “We’re confident and that’s one reason we want to stay in communication with the American people because I think they are going to demand action here,” Plouffe said on CNN.¶ Gun Control¶ The Dec. 14 shooting in a Connecticut grade school thrust gun control to the top of Obama’s second-term agenda. This past week, he unveiled the most ambitious gun-control proposals in decades, announcing a $500 million package of legislation and executive actions aimed at curbing firearms violence.¶ The president called on Congress to require background checks for all gun buyers, ban high-capacity ammunition clips, and reinstate a ban on sales of assault weapons. Obama also signed 23 executive actions aimed at circumventing congressional opposition to new gun restrictions, including several designed to maximize prosecution of gun crimes and improve access to government data for background checks.¶ Plouffe said the president should be able to get the 60 votes in the Senate and the 219 votes in the House needed to pass a gun control bill.¶ Assault Weapons¶ “If you look at high-capacity magazines, assault weapons, universal background checks, progress we can make on mental health and school safety, all of these things enjoy enormous support of the American people, both Democrats and Republicans,” Plouffe said on ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”¶ “Putting together the legislative coalition is going to be hard, obviously, but we’re very confident. I do think things have changed since Newtown,” Plouffe said.¶ Obama’s call has put him in conflict with the National Rifle Association, which opposes the restrictions and has called for armed guards in every school. The gun lobby last week released an ad saying Obama’s own daughters are protected by armed guards at school and calling the president an “elitist hypocrite.”¶ Obama’s inaugural address tomorrow and State of the Union speech on Feb. 12 will set the tone as he pushes for action.¶ Plouffe said there is no reason “that immigration reform shouldn’t pass.”¶ “Obviously the legislative process has to work its way through but this is the moment,” Plouffe said. “The stars seem to be aligned to finally get comprehensive immigration reform.”
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Hopkins 1/20/2013 (Cheyenne, “Plouffe Predicts Passage of Gun Control, Immigration Changes”, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-20/plouffe-predicts-passage-of-gun-control-immigration-measures.html, CMR)
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immigration law and gun control should be able to pass Congress Newtown has changed the debate a lot of people think differently about this issue Plouffe took an optimistic stance, saying the time has come for both immigration change and gun control. the president should be able to get the 60 votes in the Senate and the 219 votes in the House needed to pass a gun control bill. all of these things enjoy enormous support of both Democrats and Republicans we’re very confident things have changed there is no reason immigration shouldn’t pass the legislative process has to work its way through but this is the moment The stars seem to be aligned
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(--) Won’t be a fight or affect immigration
| 7,973 | 44 | 650 | 1,305 | 8 | 114 | 0.00613 | 0.087356 |
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Obama has repeatedly said he will push hard for immigration reform in his second term, and administration officials have said that other contentious legislative initiatives -- including gun control and the debt ceiling -- won't be allowed to get in the way. At least at first glance, he seems to have politics on his side. GOP lawmakers are entering -- or, in some cases, re-entering -- the immigration debate in the wake of disastrous results for their party's presidential nominee with Latino voters, who support reform by large measures. Based on those new political realities, "it would be a suicidal impulse for Republicans in Congress to continue to block [reform]," David Axelrod, a longtime adviser to the president, told The Huffington Post.
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Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push In Second Term,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/obama-immigration-reform_n_2463388.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama has repeatedly said he will push hard for immigration reform in his second term, and administration officials have said that other contentious legislative initiatives -- including gun control and the debt ceiling -- won't be allowed to get in the way he seems to have politics on his side. GOP lawmakers are entering the immigration debate in the wake of disastrous results for their party's presidential nominee with Latino voters Based on those new political realities, "it would be a suicidal impulse for Republicans in Congress to continue to block [reform],"
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(--) Gun control won’t block push for immigration reform:
| 750 | 58 | 569 | 122 | 9 | 92 | 0.07377 | 0.754098 |
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Obama also signed twenty-three executive orders on gun control, beyond what he’s asking Congress for. The highlights include directives to state health programs to make sure there is parity between mental and physical health services under Medicaid; a raft of orders designed to beef up compliance with the FBI’s criminal background check system; and increased law enforcement of existing gun laws.¶ Crucially, Obama will also nominate a permanent head of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, which has been without even a temporary chief since 2006 and without a permanent one since 1970. That will reportedly be Byron Todd Jones, who is already at the agency.¶ The White House unveiling was greeted with fulsome praise from gun control advocates. “This profoundly historic initiative puts the full moral and political weight of the presidency behind strong and specific measures to reduce gun violence,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut in a statement. “It is presidential leadership at its best and boldest.”¶ Progressives also seemed pleased, not only because of the policy proposals but because the president was going all-in on a fight. “We applaud the White House plan to think big and take bold action against gun killings,” said Stephanie Taylor, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee—an outfit not known for praising Obama. “The PCCC is all in for this fight, investing time and money in Republican and Democratic districts until Congress passes major gun legislation that includes an assault weapons ban.”¶ In Congress, the reaction from Republican leadership was muted—for now, anyhow. House Speaker John Boehner’s office put a noncommittal, two-sentence response: “House committees of jurisdiction will review these recommendations. And if the Senate passes a bill, we will also take a look at that.”
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George Zornick, 1/16/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Goes Big on Gun Control,” http://www.thenation.com/blog/172255/obama-goes-big-gun-control, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama also signed twenty-three executive orders on gun control, In Congress, the reaction from Republican leadership was muted Boehner’s office put a noncommittal, two-sentence response:
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(--) Republican response to gun control initiatives is muted:
| 1,853 | 61 | 186 | 287 | 9 | 25 | 0.031359 | 0.087108 |
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Obama is using executive orders to enact a number of his proposals without congressional approval. Those initiatives include more research funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on gun violence, stricter penalties for those who lie on background checks and allowing schools to use more grant money to hire school resource officers.
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Brian Hughes, 1/16/2013 (staff writer, “Obama: 'We must act now' on gun control proposals,” http://washingtonexaminer.com/obama-we-must-act-now-on-gun-control-proposals/article/2518836#.UQB-6_Jn2No, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Obama is using executive orders to enact a number of his proposals without congressional approval.
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(--) Obama is using executive orders to pass gun control—not engaging in fights with Congress:
| 351 | 94 | 98 | 54 | 15 | 15 | 0.277778 | 0.277778 |
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“This is so important now to both parties that neither the fiscal cliff nor guns will get in the way,” said Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, a Democrat who is a leader of the bipartisan discussions.¶ A similar attempt at bipartisan legislation early in Mr. Obama’s first term collapsed amid political divisions fueled by surging public wrath over illegal immigration in many states. But both supporters and opponents say conditions are significantly different now.
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Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast Push,” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/us/politics/obama-plans-to-push-congress-on-immigration-overhaul.html?_r=0, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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This is so important now to both parties that neither the fiscal cliff nor guns will get in the way said Schumer Obama’s first term collapsed amid political divisions over illegal immigration But both supporters and opponents say conditions are significantly different now.
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(--) Neither party will let fiscal cliff or guns get in the way of immigration reform:
| 471 | 86 | 273 | 76 | 16 | 43 | 0.210526 | 0.565789 |
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Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., indicated recently that he wouldn't even allow a vote on an assault weapons ban, since it would not pass the GOP-led House. (A vote for gun control could be political damaging to Democrats from gun-friendly states, some of whom are up for reelection in 2014.) On Tuesday, Reid signaled that he may allow a vote, though he made clear that he did not expect the measure to pass. The Senate Majority Leader, a longtime supporter of gun rights, said he expected the Senate Judiciary Committee to produce a bill after its hearings on gun control, which begin next week.
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Brian Montopoli, 1/24/2013 (senior political reporter, “Gun control bill faces long odds in Congress,”http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57565515/gun-control-bill-faces-long-odds-in-congress/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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Reid, indicated recently that he wouldn't even allow a vote on an assault weapons ban, since it would not pass the GOP-led House
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(--) Reid won’t even take gun control up for a vote:
| 607 | 52 | 128 | 105 | 11 | 23 | 0.104762 | 0.219048 |
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"I can't speak to that directly," Carney responded. "I just know that we are working with Sen. Feinstein, working with other senators in the Senate, and we'll work with House members to try to move something forward here. The reality is, as we've talked about, that none of this is going to be easy. But the fact that it's not easy doesn't mean we shouldn't try." Vice President Joe Biden, who led the effort to craft Mr. Obama's proposals, is hosting a "fireside hangout" on Google+ Thursday to discuss gun control efforts.
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Brian Montopoli, 1/24/2013 (senior political reporter, “Gun control bill faces long odds in Congress,”http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57565515/gun-control-bill-faces-long-odds-in-congress/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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Biden, who led the effort to craft Mr. Obama's proposals, is hosting a "fireside hangout" to discuss gun control
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(--) Biden, not Obama, is leading the gun control charge:
| 524 | 57 | 112 | 92 | 10 | 19 | 0.108696 | 0.206522 |
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The White House opted not to send its own bill to Capitol Hill after Mr. Obama's announcement; it says it supports Feinstein's effort and has worked with her office in crafting the new version. Yet there is little reason to believe that the measure could pass the GOP-led House - and it may well not even be able to get through the Democrat-led Senate.
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Brian Montopoli, 1/24/2013 (senior political reporter, “Gun control bill faces long odds in Congress,”http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57565515/gun-control-bill-faces-long-odds-in-congress/, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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The White House opted not to send its own bill to Capitol Hill after Mr. Obama's announcement
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(--) Obama not leading the legislation on gun control:
| 352 | 54 | 93 | 64 | 9 | 17 | 0.140625 | 0.265625 |
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A filibuster against Hagel would be unprecedented. A Cabinet nominee has never been defeated by filibuster, although nominees have been voted down by a majority (John Tower was the first in three decades) or pulled over scandal or opposition (Tom Daschle, Bernard Kerik).¶ Individual Democrats have, in the past, put holds on Cabinet nominees — Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) put a hold on President George W. Bush’s nominee to head the Environmental Protection Agency*, Stephen Johnson over a dispute involving the the “Clear Skies” initiative, and Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) put one on Dirk Kempthorne, Bush’s nominee for Interior, over offshore drilling. But both nominees were confirmed after cloture votes. (Judicial and non-Cabinet level nominations are another story.)¶ The White House has expressed confidence that Hagel will be confirmed. The Senate Armed Services Committee, where Democrats have a 14-12 edge, could vote on Hagel’s nomination as early as Thursday. A Senate floor vote could happen next week.
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Weiner 2/4/2013 (Rachel, “Chuck Hagel filibuster unlikely”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/04/mcconnell-senate-gop-could-filibuster-hagel/, CMR)
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A filibuster against Hagel would be unprecedented A Cabinet nominee has never been defeated by filibuster, The White House has expressed confidence that Hagel will be confirmed
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(--) No fight, no filibuster
| 1,011 | 29 | 176 | 157 | 5 | 27 | 0.031847 | 0.171975 |
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The group included Obama allies like Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, who pushed Schumer and other balky Democrats to back Hagel, White House officials and Hagel aides from his two terms in the Senate.¶ Administration officials have reached out to Jewish groups and reassured gay rights activists. Hagel met with leaders of some of the largest Jewish-American groups at the White House on Friday, where he was joined by Vice President Joe Biden.¶ And they have enlisted an array of luminaries to serve as Hagel ambassadors. Thirteen former secretaries of defense and state and national security advisers from both parties sent a letter to senators last week strongly backing his nomination.¶ Hagel will be introduced at his hearing by two former Senate Armed Services committee chairmen, Democrat Sam Nunn and Republican John Warner, who both - like Hagel - were known for breaking from party doctrine on a range of issues.
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Zengerle 1/30/2013 (Patricia, “White House on offensive to get Hagel as defense secretary”, 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/us-usa-obama-nominations-hagel-idUSBRE90T07B20130130, CMR)
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Reid pushed Schumer and other balky Democrats to back Hagel they have enlisted an array of luminaries to serve as Hagel ambassadors. Thirteen former secretaries of defense and state and national security advisers from both parties sent a letter to senators strongly backing his nomination.¶ Hagel will be introduced by Nunn and Warner
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(--) Obama not key – multiple super-stars pushing Hagel
| 927 | 56 | 334 | 151 | 9 | 53 | 0.059603 | 0.350993 |
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Despite the blitz, Hagel’s nomination looks likely to pass the Senate assuming he can survive Thursday’s confirmation hearing in the Senate Armed Services Committee. Earlier this week, Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, the Senate whip, said that all 55 members of the Senate Democratic caucus will vote for Hagel – though many Democrats have decided to publically withhold their support until after the hearing. Republican Senator Thad Cochran of Mississippi has said he will also vote for Hagel, which means Hagel need only muster another four GOP votes, assuming his nomination is even filibustered.¶ Those four votes are riding on what Hagel, a former Republican Senator from Nebraska, says at his hearing. Senator John McCain, an Arizona Republican, and many of Hagel’s erstwhile GOP colleagues, were upset when Hagel opposed the surge and became an outspoken critic of the Bush Administration on the handling of the Iraqi reconstruction. Hagel didn’t help matters when he also endorsed Barack Obama over McCain in the 2008 presidential election and Democrat Bob Kerrey over Deb Fischer in last year’s Nebraska Senate race. But, as Senator John Cornyn, a Texas Republican, said, “It’s not a matter of personalities. Chuck Hagel’s an honorable man.”¶ Republicans have other concerns such as Hagel’s past comments advocating for direct engagement with Iran (a position once held by presidential candidate Barack Obama), past votes in 2001 and 2008 against Iran sanctions and a comment about how the “Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people,” for which Hagel has apologized. Republicans have also voiced concerns about Hagel’s 2011 comments to the Financial Times that the Pentagon budget is “bloated.” Others have also been upset at his support of a group called Global Zero, which seeks to eradicate nuclear arms globally, even though Hagel has said he would not support unilateral U.S. reductions.¶ Chuck Hagel¶ But as Hagel has made the rounds, meeting privately with GOP senators and Jewish groups, he has assuaged many concerns. Though they are withholding final judgment until after the hearing, McCain and Republican Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Nebraska’s Fischer, Mike Lee of Utah and New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte were much pacified after meeting with Hagel and their criticisms muted. “It was a pleasant conversation,” McCain said, “between old friends.”¶ Thus far James Inhofe of Oklahoma, the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee, David Vitter (R-LA), Roger Wicker (R-MS), Tom Coburn (R-OK), Pat Roberts (R-KS), Dan Coats (R-IN) and John Cornyn (R-TX) have confirmed they will under no circumstances support Hagel’s nomination. Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said he might move to block Hagel’s nomination if Panetta does not agree to testify before the committee on the Benghazi attacks in September last year that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans. A Panetta testimony has not yet been confirmed.¶ Democrats have voiced concerns about a comment Hagel made in 1998 about an ambassadorial nominee being “too gay” for the job, a comment for which Hagel has apologized. Democratic Senators Chuck Schumer of New York and California’s Barbara Boxer, the strongest Democratic proponents of Israel, had voiced concerns about Hagel’s stances on Iran. But both backed down after meetings with Hagel where he pledged to fully support Obama’s policy of prevention.¶ Hagel’s financial disclosures this week also raised some alarm bells as he sits on the board of Chevron and Deutsche Bank, which is under investigation by the Treasury Department for its dealings with Iran. Hagel has said he’d quit those boards and divest his Chevron stock if confirmed.¶ By Wednesday even Republicans aides were privately conceding that Hagel would be confirmed barring any major gaffes in Thursday’s hearing. And attacking too overtly someone they will likely have to work closely with once confirmed might hold back some of Hagel’s harshest critics. Which means that Thursday’s hearing, while still pivotal, is more likely to clear Hagel’s path than block it.
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Newton-Small 1/31/2013 (Jay, “Can Chuck Hagel Overcome?”, http://swampland.time.com/2013/01/31/can-hagel-overcome/#ixzz2JcJhVuor, CMR)
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Despite the blitz, Hagel’s nomination looks likely to pass assuming he can survive Thursday’s confirmation hearing all 55 members of the Senate Democratic caucus will vote for Hagel four votes are riding on what Hagel says at his hearing as Hagel has made the rounds he has assuaged many concerns It was a pleasant conversation, Wednesday even Republicans aides were privately conceding that Hagel would be confirmed barring any major gaffes in Thursday’s hearing attacking too overtly someone they will likely have to work closely with once confirmed might hold back some of Hagel’s harshest critics
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(--) Hagel inevitable – only thing that derail that is confirmation hearing gaffes which are outside Obama’s control
| 4,114 | 117 | 600 | 647 | 18 | 96 | 0.027821 | 0.148377 |
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Democrats have 55 votes in the Senate; they would need five Republicans to break a filibuster. Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) and Sen. Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) are supporting Hagel. Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) told MSNBC last week that he was against a filibuster, even though he planned to vote against Hagel in the final vote. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Monday that he also opposes a filibuster and will urge his colleagues against mounting one. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has told reporters that she’s “not inclined to support a filibuster.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is generally opposed to filibustering Cabinet nominees. “One of the prerogatives of the president is to appoint his Cabinet,” she told the Omaha World-Herald.
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Weiner 2/4 (Rachel, “Chuck Hagel filibuster unlikely”, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/02/04/mcconnell-senate-gop-could-filibuster-hagel/, CMR)
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Collins has told reporters that she’s “not inclined to support a filibuster.” Murkowski is generally opposed to filibustering Cabinet nominees. One of the prerogatives of the president is to appoint his Cabinet
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Cabinet nominees are politically safe
| 730 | 37 | 210 | 117 | 5 | 32 | 0.042735 | 0.273504 |
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Obama has vowed to make immigration a 'top legislative priority.'¶ The push to overhaul the nation's immigration laws is officially underway.¶ President Obama met with Hispanic members of Congress at the White House on Friday and is planning a speech in Las Vegas on Tuesday to "redouble the administration's efforts to work with Congress to fix the broken immigration system this year," according to a White House statement.¶ Obama insisted that he would lead on the issue, and emphasized that any changes to the nation's immigration laws would include an "earned pathway to citizenship" for the nation's 11 million illegal immigrants. Republicans have insisted that the country fully secure the borders and enact tight restrictions on businesses from hiring illegal immigrants before granting any new rights to people illegally living in the country.¶ STORY: Jeb Bush pushes comprehensive immigration strategy¶ After Friday's meeting, members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus — all Democrats — said they were enthusiastic by the president's commitment to moving on an immigration bill.¶ "The president is the quarterback and he will direct the team, call the play and be pivotal if we succeed," said Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., one of the House members who will be shepherding the bill through Congress.¶ Both Republicans and Democrats have discussed the need to tackle immigration this term, but there are many disagreements over what it will look like and how to proceed.¶ Republicans, including Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, have insisted that they approach it piece by piece. A bipartisan group of senators plan on introducing a bill on Tuesday focused on increasing the number of visas for high-skilled immigrants with degrees in the STEM fields — science, technology, engineering and mathematics — according to The Hill.¶ Meanwhile, many Democrats support a "comprehensive" bill that would address all the issues at once. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid filed Senate Bill No. 1 as the "Immigration Reform that Works for America's Future Act," a symbolic, but telling indication of how important the issue will be in the new Congress. Another bipartisan group of senators is almost ready to unveil their own comprehensive immigration plan, according to The Washington Post.¶ Whatever the approach, members feel the stars are finally aligned to tackle an issue that eluded George W. Bush during his White House years and Obama during his first term in office.¶ "Immigration reform is not a matter of 'if' but 'when,'" said Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Calif., chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. "After today's meeting, it's clear that President Obama is determined to fix our long broken immigration system."
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Gomez, 1/25 (Alan, “Obama, members of Congress start immigration push,” http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/01/25/obama-immigration-congress-legislation/1865129/, CMR)
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Obama has vowed to make immigration a 'top legislative priority.' The push to overhaul the nation's immigration laws is officially underway. Obama met with Hispanic members of Congress and is planning to "redouble the administration's efforts to work with Congress to fix the broken immigration system this year," Obama insisted that he would lead on the issue members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus said they were enthusiastic by the president's commitment to moving on an immigration bill "The president is the quarterback and he will direct the team, call the play and be pivotal if we succeed," said Rep Gutierrez Both Republicans and Democrats have discussed the need to tackle immigration this term, but there are many disagreements over what it will look like and how to proceed. Whatever the approach, members feel the stars are finally aligned
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Doesn’t affect immigration – only the plan draws Obama into *legislative battles* that ruin congressional support –
| 2,723 | 116 | 863 | 429 | 17 | 138 | 0.039627 | 0.321678 |
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The Justice Department hinted that the administration would ask the Supreme Court to overturn the decision, which was rendered by three conservative judges appointed by Republican presidents. “We disagree with the court’s ruling and believe that the president’s recess appointments are constitutionally sound,” the statement said.¶ The court acknowledged that the ruling conflicts with what some other federal appeals courts have held about when recess appointments are valid, which only added to the likelihood of an appeal to the high court.
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AP 1/26 (White House: Ruling won't affect other Obama picks, http://www.pal-item.com/article/20130126/UPDATES/130126003/White-House-Ruling-won-t-affect-other-Obama-picks, CMR)
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Justice Department hinted the administration would ask the Supreme Court to overturn the decision which was rendered by three conservative judges appointed by Republican presidents. the president’s recess appointments are constitutionally sound the ruling conflicts with what other federal appeals courts have held about recess appointments which only added to the likelihood of an appeal
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Get real – the decision was a joke and won’t stick
| 543 | 51 | 388 | 81 | 11 | 55 | 0.135802 | 0.679012 |
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Not to pick on Ezra or anything, but this attitude betrays a surprisingly common misconception about political issues in general. The fact is that political dogs never bark until an issue becomes an active one. Opposition to Social Security privatization was pretty mild until 2005, when George Bush turned it into an active issue. Opposition to healthcare reform was mild until 2009, when Barack Obama turned it into an active issue. Etc.¶ I only bring this up because we often take a look at polls and think they tell us what the public thinks about something. But for the most part, they don't.1 That is, they don't until the issue in question is squarely on the table and both sides have spent a couple of months filling the airwaves with their best agitprop. Polling data about gays in the military, for example, hasn't changed a lot over the past year or two, but once Congress takes up the issue in earnest and the Focus on the Family newsletters go out, the push polling starts, Rush Limbaugh picks it up, and Fox News creates an incendiary graphic to go with its saturation coverage — well, that's when the polling will tell you something. And it will probably tell you something different from what it tells you now.¶ Immigration was bubbling along as sort of a background issue during the Bush administration too until 2007, when he tried to move an actual bill. Then all hell broke loose. The same thing will happen this time, and without even a John McCain to act as a conservative point man for a moderate solution. The political environment is worse now than it was in 2007, and I'll be very surprised if it's possible to make any serious progress on immigration reform. "Love 'em or hate 'em," says Ezra, illegal immigrants "aren't at the forefront of people's minds." Maybe not. But they will be soon.
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Drum, 10 (Kevin, Political Blogger, Mother Jones, http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/03/immigration-coming-back-burner)**
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The fact is that political dogs never bark until an issue becomes an active one. Opposition to Social Security privatization was pretty mild until 2005, when George Bush turned it into an active issue. Opposition to healthcare reform was mild until 2009, when Barack Obama turned it into an active issue. Etc. don't.1 That is, they don't until the issue in question is squarely on the table and both sides have spent a couple of months filling the airwaves with their best agitprop. Polling data about gays in the military, for example, hasn't changed a lot over the past year or two, but once Congress takes up the issue in earnest and the Focus on the Family newsletters go out, the push polling starts, Rush Limbaugh picks it up, and Fox News creates an incendiary graphic to go with its saturation coverage — well, that's when the polling will tell you something. And it will probably tell you something different from what it tells you now. Immigration was bubbling along as sort of a background issue during the Bush administration too until 2007, when he tried to move an actual bill. Then all hell broke loose. The same thing will happen this time, and without even a John McCain to act as a conservative point man for a moderate solution. The political environment is worse now than it was in 2007, and I'll be very surprised if it's possible to make any serious progress on immigration reform. "Love 'em or hate 'em," says Ezra, illegal immigrants "aren't at the forefront of people's minds." Maybe not. But they will be soon.
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Hold all of their link UQ to a very high threshold—-issues don’t cost PC until they’re at the finish line
| 1,819 | 105 | 1,537 | 320 | 20 | 270 | 0.0625 | 0.84375 |
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The Washington Post’s Nia-Malika Henderson and the Huffington Post’s Howard Fineman dismissed the argument that Obama doesn’t want true immigration reform.¶ “I think his true objective has been what it always was, even going back to 2008 when he campaigned on the issue of comprehensive immigration reform. Obviously, he wasn’t able to get it done in his first term,” said Henderson.¶ “…I think he already won the political fight in 2012, so now it’s about his legacy and whether or not he can get this big grand bargain around immigration,” she added.
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Aliyah Frumin, 1/30/2013 (staff writer, “Does Obama really want immigration reform?” http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/01/30/does-obama-really-want-immigration-reform/, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg)
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Fineman dismissed the argument that Obama doesn’t want true immigration reform.¶ “I think his true objective has been what it always was, even going back to 2008 when he campaigned on the issue of comprehensive immigration reform. Obviously, he wasn’t able to get it done in his first term,” I think he already won the political fight in 2012, so now it’s about his legacy and whether or not he can get this big grand bargain around immigration,”
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(--) Obama’s serious—he wants true immigration reform:
| 552 | 54 | 446 | 92 | 7 | 78 | 0.076087 | 0.847826 |
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Top Democrats and White House aides are saying that President Obama not only talked about comprehensive immigration reform in his inaugural address Monday, but he will start pushing Congress to agree on a bill and pass it within the next 90 days.
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Dan Moffett, 1/21/2013 (staff writer, “Obama's Inauguration Begins Push For Comprehensive Reform Bill,” http://immigration.about.com/b/2013/01/21/obama-inauguration-begins-push-for-comprehensive-reform.htm, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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Top Democrats and White House aides are saying that Obama not only talked about comprehensive immigration reform in his inaugural address Monday, but he will start pushing Congress to agree on a bill and pass it within the next 90 days.
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(--) Obama will push now and Immigration reform will pass within 90 days:
| 246 | 73 | 236 | 42 | 13 | 41 | 0.309524 | 0.97619 |
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In fact, Obama included immigration reform in his short wish list of accomplishments during his second term when he was inaugurated. If work began before his address, the first wave of congressional voting on the issue could come in May or June.
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Business and Legal Resources, 2/18/2013 (“Congress: We need immigration reform!” http://hr.blr.com/HR-news/Staffing-Training/Visas-and-Eligibility-to-Work/Congress-We-need-immigration-reform, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Obama included immigration reform in his short wish list of accomplishments during his second term when he was inaugurated. If work began before his address, the first wave of congressional voting on the issue could come in May or June
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(--) Vote can happen by May:
| 245 | 28 | 235 | 42 | 6 | 40 | 0.142857 | 0.952381 |
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(CNN) – President Barack Obama said Wednesday he wants to get an immigration reform package passed as soon as this summer.¶ "I'm hopeful that this can get done, and I don't think that it should take many, many months," Obama said in an interview with the Spanish-language network Telemundo. "I think this is something we should be able to get done certainly this year, and I'd like to see if we could get it done sooner, in the first half of the year if possible."
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Ashley Killough, 1/30/2013 (staff writer, “Obama wants immigration reform in first half of the year,” http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/30/obama-wants-immigration-reform-in-first-half-of-the-year/, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg)
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Obama said Wednesday he wants to get an immigration reform package passed as soon as this summer I think this is something we should be able to get done certainly this year, and I'd like to see if we could get it done sooner, in the first half of the year if possible
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(--) Bill can pass by this summer:
| 464 | 34 | 267 | 85 | 7 | 53 | 0.082353 | 0.623529 |
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A bipartisan group of senators has also been meeting to write a comprehensive bill, with the goal of introducing legislation as early as March and holding a vote in the Senate before August. As a sign of the keen interest in starting action on immigration, White House officials and Democratic leaders in the Senate have been negotiating over which of them will first introduce a bill, Senate aides said.
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Julia Preston, 1/12/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Will Seek Citizenship Path in One Fast Push,” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/13/us/politics/obama-plans-to-push-congress-on-immigration-overhaul.html?_r=0, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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A bipartisan group of senators has also been meeting to write a comprehensive bill, with the goal of introducing legislation as early as March and holding a vote in the Senate before August
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(--) Meetings have begun now:
| 404 | 29 | 189 | 69 | 5 | 33 | 0.072464 | 0.478261 |
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Some faith leaders have long called for comprehensive immigration reform, but demand for reform has increased in the last few months.¶ “I think we have a window of opportunity in these first months of 2013,” Richard Land, president of the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, told CNN in January. “I think there is a real, new conversation on immigration reform.”¶ That window, Land acknowledged, is small and could close at any point. Congress has a number of issues to deal with in the coming year; Republican members of Congress hope to focus on government spending and the debt, while the White House is likely to push for gun control early in the president’s second term.
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Dan Merica, 3/8/2013 (staff writer, “Obama pushes expedited timetable on immigration reform in meeting with faith leaders,” http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/08/obama-pushes-expedited-timetable-on-immigration-reform-in-meeting-with-faith-leaders/, Accessed 3/8/2013, rwg)
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Some faith leaders have long called for comprehensive immigration reform, but demand for reform has increased in the last few months I think we have a window of opportunity in these first months of 2013, “I think there is a real, new conversation on immigration reform.” That window, Land acknowledged, is small and could close at any point.
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(--) Window of opportunity in the first few months of 2013—it could close at any point:
| 680 | 87 | 341 | 115 | 16 | 58 | 0.13913 | 0.504348 |
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Though the groups began holding broader discussion two years ago, Monday will serve as the campaign's first concerted push on immigration, with the goal of getting meaningful immigration reform through Congress in 2013.¶ "I think we have a window of opportunity in these first months of 2013," Richard Land, president of the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, told CNN. "I think there is a real, new conversation on immigration reform."¶ That window, Land acknowledges, is small and could close at any point. Congress has a number of issues to deal with in the coming year; Republican members of Congress hope to focus on government spending and the debt, while the White House is likely to push for gun control early in the president's second term.
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Jaweed Kaleem, 1/14/2013 (staff writer, “Evangelicals Join The Push For Immigration Reform,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jaweed-kaleem/evangelicals-immigration-reform_b_2472836.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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I think we have a window of opportunity in these first months of 2013," I think there is a real, new conversation on immigration reform That window is small and could close at any point. Congress has a number of issues to deal with in the coming year;
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(--) Window of opportunity for immigration reform in the first few months of 2013, however, it can easily close:
| 755 | 112 | 251 | 125 | 19 | 48 | 0.152 | 0.384 |
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Let's be clear: none of the overtures made by previous critics of reform, nor the statistics promise that a bill will pass, nor that the discussion won't descend into another political brawl if the debate continues into mid-term elections two years from now. The president and the senate have each presented their vision of a pathway to citizenship. Republicans in the House are largely opposed to any talk of citizenship, but have recently indicated they are willing to consider an approach that provides legal residency. The rhetoric on illegal immigrants is shifting, but it's too early to tell whether the policy will too. But in Washington politics make strange bedfellows, and if the positive buzz surrounding the reform efforts is any indication, the cliché won't die anytime soon. Here's hoping neither will the efforts to fix the broken system – a point on which all sides are so far willing to agree.
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Khody Akhavi, 2-9-2013 Al Jazeera's White House producer, based in Washington, 2-9-13, [“Strange bedfellows in Washington,” http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/americas/strange-bedfellows-washington]
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none of the overtures made by previous critics nor the statistics promise that a bill will pass, nor that the discussion won't descend into another political brawl The rhetoric is shifting, but it's too early to tell whether the policy will too. all sides are so far willing to agree
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Nothing makes passage inevitable – The policy still has to be formed
| 910 | 68 | 283 | 152 | 12 | 50 | 0.078947 | 0.328947 |
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2,763 |
President Barack Obama and a bipartisan group of eight senators have set the stage for Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform this year.¶ But passing a broad bill that addresses all aspects of immigration as Obama and the bipartisan group have proposed is fraught with obstacles, any one of which could derail the entire bill, as it did the last time Congress tried to tackle comprehensive immigration reform.
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Daniel González, 2/3/2013 (staff writer, “Paths to immigration reform will be bumpy,” http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/20130130immigration-reform-bumpy.html, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Obama and a bipartisan group of eight senators have set the stage for Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform this year.¶ But passing a broad bill that addresses all aspects of immigration as Obama and the bipartisan group have proposed is fraught with obstacles, any one of which could derail the entire bill,
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(--) Uniqueness won’t overwhelm the link—many problems could derail the bill:
| 420 | 77 | 320 | 68 | 11 | 53 | 0.161765 | 0.779412 |
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A bipartisan House group working on immigration is “on the cusp” of an agreement, a senior House Democrat participating in the talks said Friday.¶ Rep. Xavier Becerra (Calif.), the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, told reporters that lawmakers on both sides of the aisle were being pragmatic about the issue, and that he was hopeful the Senate would also deliver on legislation soon.¶ “The reality is that we are on the cusp of actually having an opportunity to put forward a bipartisan proposal in the House of Representatives,” Becerra said at a news conference capping off the House Democrats’ annual retreat ¶ “I am optimistic that the conversations will bear fruit. But make no mistake, there are voices out there that would love nothing more than to destroy ... the progress.” ¶ Becerra would not say whether the group hoped to release legislation next week in conjunction with President Obama's State of the Union address, which had been a target for the coalition. He said only that conversations are continuing.¶ The bipartisan House group also includes Reps. John Carter (R-Texas), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Luis Gutiérrez (D-Ill.), Sam Johnson (R-Texas) and Zoe Lofgren (Calif.).¶ A Senate group that includes Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), John McCain (R-Ariz.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) has already announced immigration reform principles, and is hoping to release legislation in March.¶ Obama stressed during his appearance before House Democrats that he was committed to making changes to both immigration and gun control policies.¶ “Now, is the time,” Obama said Thursday. “I recognize that the politics aren’t always easy.”¶ House Democratic leaders also stressed at their wrap-up news conference that they would not take their eyes off the economy and deficits while working on guns and immigration.¶ “That subject permeated our entire discussion,” said House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). “The global economic challenges that we all face, and the leadership role of America.”
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Becker and Berman 2/8/2013 (Bernie Becker and Russell Berman, The Hill, “House group 'on the cusp' of deal on immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/281987-house-group-on-the-cusp-of-deal-on-immigration-reform#ixzz2KLrlGYxv)
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A bipartisan House group working on immigration is “on the cusp” of an agreement . But make no mistake, there are voices out there that would love nothing more than to destroy ... the progress
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(--) A bipartisan agreement in the House is imminent, but passage isn’t assured – it could easily get derailed
| 2,031 | 110 | 192 | 318 | 19 | 35 | 0.059748 | 0.110063 |
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The group also talked Tuesday night about how to go about giving citizenship to undocumented residents while still being fair to immigrants who came into the country legally.¶ Schumer said the gang plans to meet every Tuesday and Thursday, and their staffs will meet every Wednesday. The senators want to go through the committee process, he said, adding that the process has become all too rare in Congress.¶ He added that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has said that he will make putting the bill on the upper chamber's floor a priority when the group is ready, likely this spring.¶ "This is going to be fragile," McCain said, adding that the group "will have to take tough votes" to keep a bill intact.
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EMILY DERUY, 1/30/2013 (staff writer, “Gang of Eight Accelerates Immigration Reform Pace,” http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/gang-accelerates-immigration-reform-pace/story?id=18354593, Accessed 1/30/2013, rwg)
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The group also talked Tuesday night about how to go about giving citizenship to undocumented residents Reid has said that he will make putting the bill on the upper chamber's floor a priority when the group is ready, likely this spring.¶ "This is going to be fragile," the group "will have to take tough votes" to keep a bill intact.
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(--) Immigration reform bill will be fragile—there will be tough votes:
| 717 | 71 | 333 | 124 | 11 | 60 | 0.08871 | 0.483871 |
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Add to the mix other contentious issues such as workplace enforcement, employer verification, and adjusting the future levels of legal immigrants, and passing a comprehensive immigration bill becomes even more complicated, she said.¶ Failure to find consensus on even one of those issues could be enough to kill the entire push, despite the momentum. In 2007, even with the strong backing of President George W. Bush and broad bipartisan support from veteran lawmakers including Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the House refused to act on a bill passed by the Senate. The snag? What to do with the illegal immigrants — then estimated to be 12million — already in the country.
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Daniel González, 2/3/2013 (staff writer, “Paths to immigration reform will be bumpy,” http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/20130130immigration-reform-bumpy.html, Accessed 2/21/2013, rwg)
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Add to the mix other contentious issues such as workplace enforcement, employer verification, and adjusting the future levels of legal immigrants, and passing a comprehensive immigration bill becomes even more complicated Failure to find consensus on even one of those issues could be enough to kill the entire push, despite the momentum
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(--) Failure to find consensus on even one issue could kill the immigration reform push:
| 704 | 88 | 337 | 115 | 15 | 52 | 0.130435 | 0.452174 |
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When President Obama won re-election – in large part due to the record number of Latinos who voted for him – he renewed his promise for federal immigration reform, singling it out as the top priority for the upcoming legislative session. Though federal legislation that provides a pathway to citizenship for the nation's 11 million undocumented residents is long overdue, serious obstacles stand in the way, including an obstructionist Congress and the president's growing list of other legislative priorities.
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Sarahi Uribe, 1/22/2013 (staff writer, “Immigration reform: Obama needs to close gap between rhetoric and reality,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree /2013/jan/22/immigration-reform-obama-rhetoric-reality, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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Though federal legislation that provides a pathway to citizenship for the nation's 11 million undocumented residents is long overdue, serious obstacles stand in the way, including an obstructionist Congress
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(--) Serious obstacles stand in the way of immigration reform:
| 510 | 62 | 206 | 79 | 10 | 29 | 0.126582 | 0.367089 |
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One key in the second term, advocates say, will be convincing skeptics such as Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas that the Obama administration held up its end of the bargain by proving a commitment to enforcement. The White House also needs to convince GOP lawmakers that there's support from their constituents for immigration reform, which could be aided by conservative evangelical leaders and members of the business community who are pushing for a bill.
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Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push In Second Term,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/obama-immigration-reform_n_2463388.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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One key in the second term, advocates say, will be convincing skeptics that the Obama administration held up its end of the bargain by proving a commitment to enforcement. The White House also needs to convince GOP lawmakers that there's support from their constituents for immigration reform
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(--) White House must convince the GOP to pass immigration reform:
| 461 | 66 | 292 | 75 | 11 | 47 | 0.146667 | 0.626667 |
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Immigration offers Obama perhaps his best chance at a significant second-term achievement. The 2012 elections, in which Obama drew lopsided support from Hispanics, gave Republicans a wake-up call on their need to pay more attention to Latinos, so the GOP is more inclined to work with the president there than on other issues.¶ The problem is incredibly complex, though, and past efforts at comprehensive change have failed. The question of how to deal with the estimated 11 million people illegally in the U.S. is the big sticking point.
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Nancy Benac, 1/24/2013 (staff writer, “Obama's uphill agenda,” http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130124/OPINION01/301240324/1008/opinion01/Obama-s-uphill-agenda, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)
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Immigration offers Obama perhaps his best chance at a significant second-term achievement. The 2012 elections, gave Republicans a wake-up call so the GOP is more inclined to work with the president there than on other issues.¶ The problem is incredibly complex, though, and past efforts at comprehensive change have failed
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(--) There’s optimism, but no guarantee—past efforts at failed immigration reform prove it can come up short:
| 538 | 109 | 322 | 88 | 17 | 50 | 0.193182 | 0.568182 |
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Citizenship will be another major question. Obama has consistently said that a path to citizenship is vital to immigration reform, and it will be a non-negotiable in his plan. It wouldn't be the "amnesty" decried by some on the right. It would likely involve fines, English tests and "going to the back of the line," which means waiting for possibly a long, long time.¶ But that, like the argument that border security must be completed before immigration reform can take place, will be a sticking point.
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Elise Foley, 1/15/2013 (staff writer, “Obama Gears Up For Immigration Reform Push In Second Term,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/obama-immigration-reform_n_2463388.html, Accessed 1/23/2013, rwg)
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Citizenship will be another major question. Obama has consistently said that a path to citizenship is vital to immigration reform, and it will be a non-negotiable in his plan But that, like the argument that border security must be completed before immigration reform can take place, will be a sticking point.
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(--) Amnesty will be a sticking point in the push for immigration reform—Obama needs to push past that:
| 504 | 103 | 309 | 86 | 18 | 51 | 0.209302 | 0.593023 |
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US PRESIDENT Barack Obama has staked his second term political capital on a full-bore drive to cut gun crime, reform the immigration system and ignite economic growth.¶ In his annual State of the Union address yesterday, Mr Obama referred only in passing to tense nuclear showdowns with North Korea and Iran, but pledged to bring half of US troops in Afghanistan home in a year.¶ Grasping for a note of optimism in still grim economic times, Mr Obama recalled how in his first term America had rebounded from the worst economic crisis in generations. ¶ ``Together, we have cleared away the rubble of crisis, and can say with renewed confidence that the state of our union is stronger,'' he said in a speech punctuated by raucous cheers in the House of Representatives.¶ The address was Mr Obama's best chance to speak directly to Americans to build support for his plans after his November election win.¶ ``A growing economy that creates good, middle-class jobs - that must be the North Star that guides our efforts,'' he said.¶ ``It is our generation's task, then, to reignite the true engine of America's economic growth - a rising, thriving middle class.''
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Collinson 2/14/2013, Stephen, “Vow to ignite the economy,” The Advertiser (Australia), Lexis
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Obama has staked his second term political capital on a full-bore drive to reform the immigration system Grasping for a note of optimism Obama recalled how America had rebounded from the worst economic crisis in generations The address was Obama's best chance to speak directly to Americans to build support for his plans
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(--) Obama staking his political capital on reforming immigration:
| 1,159 | 66 | 321 | 197 | 9 | 53 | 0.045685 | 0.269036 |
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At the surface, there's ample reason for optimism on comprehensive immigration reform. President Obama is investing considerable political capital into the issue; the public strongly supports the reform efforts; a bipartisan bill is already progressing in the Senate; and every Republican strategist and consultant is warning the party not to further alienate the fastest-growing voting constituency in the country.
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Benen 2/6 (Steve, “Defining the 'extremes' in the immigration debate”, http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/02/06/16868677-defining-the-extremes-in-the-immigration-debate, CMR)
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there's ample reason for optimism on immigration Obama is investing considerable political capital a bipartisan bill is already progressing and every Republican strategist and consultant is warning the party not to further alienate the fastest-growing voting constituency
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(--) Obama focusing capital on immigration
| 415 | 43 | 271 | 59 | 6 | 37 | 0.101695 | 0.627119 |
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''The odds of high-skilled passing without comprehensive is close to zero, and the odds of comprehensive passing without high-skilled passing is close to zero,'' said Robert D. Atkinson, president of The Information Technology & Innovation Foundation, a nonpartisan research group based in Washington.¶ A group of powerful Senate Republicans and Democrats have reached a long-elusive agreement on some basic principles of a ''comprehensive'' revamping of immigration law. Separately, a bipartisan bill introduced in the Senate in late January focuses directly on the visa issue.¶ The industry's argument for more so-called high-skilled visas has already persuaded the president.¶ ''Real reform means fixing the legal immigration system to cut waiting periods, reduce bureaucracy, and attract the highly skilled entrepreneurs and engineers that will help create jobs and grow our economy,'' Mr. Obama said in his State of the Union speech Tuesday.¶ In a speech in Las Vegas in January in which he introduced his own blueprint for overhauling immigration law, Mr. Obama embraced the idea that granting more visas was essential to maintaining innovation and job growth. He talked about foreigners studying at American universities, figuring out how to turn their ideas into businesses.¶ In part, the new alliance between the technology industry and immigration groups derived from the 2012 elections and the rising influence of Hispanic voters.¶ ''The world has changed since the election,'' said Peter J. Muller, director of government relations at Intel, pointing out that the defeat of many Republican candidates had led to a softening of the party's position on broad changes to immigration law. ''There is a focus on comprehensive. We're thrilled by it.''¶ ''At this point,'' he added, ''our best hope for immigration reform lies with comprehensive reform.''¶ Mr. Case, the AOL co-founder, who now runs an investment fund, echoed that sentiment after meeting with the president last week .¶ ''I look forward to doing whatever I can to help pass comprehensive immigration reform in the months ahead,'' he said, ''and ensure it includes strong provisions regarding high-skilled immigration, so we are positioned to win the global battle for talent.''¶ That sort of sentiment delights immigrants' rights advocates who have banged their heads against the wall for years to rally a majority in Congress around their agenda.¶ ''The stars are aligning here,'' said Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum. ''You've got the politics of immigration reform changing. You've got tech leaders leaning in not just for high-skilled but for broader immigration reform.''¶ Senator Orrin G. Hatch, Republican of Utah, who is co-sponsoring the bill to increase the number of visas available for highly skilled immigrants, said the cooperation went both ways.¶ ''All the talk about the STEM field - science, technology, engineering, mathematics - has awakened even those who aren't all that interested in the high-tech world,'' he said.¶ While the growing momentum has surprised many in Washington, comprehensive change is still not a sure thing, especially in the Republican-controlled House.¶ Mr. Hatch said he would push forward with his measure even if the broader efforts foundered. But his Democratic co-sponsor, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, said she would press for the bill to be part of the comprehensive package.
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Sengupta 2/14/2013, Somini, “Broad base pushes U.S. visa change; Need for skilled workers has Silicon Valley aligned with immigration groups,” The International Herald Tribune, Lexis
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''The odds of high-skilled passing without comprehensive is close to zero, and the odds of comprehensive passing without high-skilled passing is close to zero, A group of powerful Senate Republicans and Democrats have reached a long-elusive agreement on some basic principles of a ''comprehensive'' revamping Obama embraced the idea that granting more visas was essential ''our best hope for immigration reform lies with comprehensive reform. ''The stars are aligning here While growing momentum has surprised many comprehensive change is still not a sure thing
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(--) High skilled is intertwined with comprehensive reform—neither can pass on its own:
| 3,430 | 88 | 561 | 526 | 13 | 84 | 0.024715 | 0.159696 |
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Congressional Hurdles and Outlook¶ How the bill fares in Congress may depend on how an overall comprehensive package of immigration reforms is handled.¶ "The Immigration Innovation Act could stand on its own, but in the current political situation it is unlikely that immigration issues will be handled piecemeal," Bob Sakaniwa, associate director of advocacy at the American Immigration Lawyers Association, told the E-Commerce Times. "The better prospect is that it will be included within a comprehensive package and its fate will be tied to what Congress does on the overall immigration reform effort."¶ The history of congressional immigration debates also indicates that the IT issue should be part of a comprehensive reform effort, LeDuc added. "As much as we might like, or it might seem practical to enact various reform initiatives independently, that's not a political reality at this time."¶ The momentum now exists for comprehensive immigration reform, and issues related to highly skilled workers have already made their way into bipartisan legislative language.¶ "We know that the attention of Congress will now be fully focused on achieving comprehensive reform and a complete bill in the next few months," Coffey said. "We're hoping that they succeed, and that's where our focus is."
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Higgins 2/6/2013 (John K. Higgins is a career business writer, with broad experience for a major publisher in a wide range of topics including energy, finance, environment and government policy, “Immigration Reform Could Open the Door for IT Talent”, http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/77241.html, CMR)
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How the bill fares in Congress may depend on how an overall comprehensive package of immigration reforms is handled.¶ the current political situation it is unlikely that immigration issues will be handled piecemeal The better prospect is that it will be included within a comprehensive package and its fate will be tied to what Congress does on the overall immigration reform effort."¶ The history of congressional immigration debates indicates the IT issue should be part of a comprehensive reform effort reform initiatives independently that's not a political reality at this time The momentum now exists for comprehensive immigration reform We know that the attention of Congress will now be fully focused on achieving comprehensive reform and a complete bill in the next few months We're hoping that they succeed, and that's where our focus is."
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(--) Skilled workers tied to comprehensive reform, won’t be addressed separately
| 1,300 | 81 | 849 | 202 | 11 | 135 | 0.054455 | 0.668317 |
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WASHINGTON — Members of the House Judiciary Committee showed a sharp partisan divide during a hearing on immigration Tuesday that sometimes seemed to pit high-skilled foreign workers against illegal immigrants and those admitted to the U.S. through family ties.¶ A big portion of the hearing — the first on immigration this year — focused on temporary H-1B visas for science and technology workers.¶ Citing a shortage of qualified American engineers and programmers, Microsoft has been leading aggressive lobbying efforts to lift the cap on such foreign hires as well as for green cards allowing them to stay permanently.¶ Many members of the panel expressed strong support for creating more slots for high-tech talent. But Democrats largely swatted down Republicans’ suggestions to tackle that issue separately from possible citizenship for an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants and other thornier aspects of comprehensive immigration reform being debated in Congress.
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Song 2/5 (Kyung, “Immigration committee examines skilled versus unskilled workers”, http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2020294802_immigrationhearingxml.html, CMR)
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Members showed a sharp partisan divide during a hearing on immigration that seemed to pit high-skilled foreign workers against illegal immigrants and those admitted through family ties members expressed support for creating more slots for high-tech talent But Democrats largely swatted down Republicans’ suggestions to tackle that issue separately
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Nope – Democrats won’t sign-off on piecemeal reform
| 974 | 52 | 347 | 147 | 8 | 49 | 0.054422 | 0.333333 |
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Democrats on the committee used their time to reject a piecemeal approach, arguing that the complex issues in immigration reform could only be addressed together. “The notion of a comprehensive immigration [bill] has been pushed around and bandied about, but the fact of the matter is this is one big challenge that I don’t think we can handle on a piecemeal basis,” said Rep. John Conyers (Mich.), the committee’s ranking Democrat.
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Berman 2/5 (Russell, “In first immigration hearing, House GOP seeks middle ground on citizenship path”, http://thehill.com/homenews/house/281187-in-first-immigration-hearing-house-gop-seeks-middle-ground-on-citizenship-path, CMR)
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Democrats used their time to reject a piecemeal approach arguing the complex issues could only be addressed together this is one big challenge I don’t think we can handle on a piecemeal basis said the committee’s ranking Democrat
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More ev – dems won’t agree
| 432 | 27 | 229 | 71 | 6 | 38 | 0.084507 | 0.535211 |
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On Wednesday, an aide to one of the Democratic senators said the lawmakers told the president "they remain confident that a bipartisan bill could be agreed to in the coming weeks."¶ "The Senators said the bipartisan negotiations were progressing well and that both sides were making progress and working together in good faith," the aide said.¶ In his State of the Union address Tuesday, Obama called on Congress to send him a comprehensive immigration reform package, saying both sides agree on what measures need to be included to make the system work better.
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Liptak 2/14/2013, Kevin, “Obama warns Democrats he has immigration bill ready if Congress doesn’t act,” CNN Wire, Lexis
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lawmakers told the president "they remain confident that a bipartisan bill could be agreed to in the coming weeks negotiations were progressing well and that both sides were making progress and working together in good faith Obama called on Congress to send him a comprehensive immigration reform package
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(--) Immigration will pass – both sides currently working in good faith with Obama push
| 561 | 87 | 304 | 93 | 15 | 48 | 0.16129 | 0.516129 |
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When Barack Obama delivers his fifth State of the Union address Tuesday, he’ll have two uninvited guests in the visitors’ gallery. One will be that myth of political capital and the other will be the unwritten lame-duck rule.¶ The lame-duck rule is that every second-term president becomes a lame duck after 18 months or one year or the day after the midterms or the day after his second inaugural address, depending on whose lame-duck countdown clock you believe.¶ Between the shrinking political capital account and the lame-duck countdown clock, by some estimates Obama ceased to be the fully functioning, politically capitalized president of the United States last Wednesday between 11:15 and 11:45 a.m.¶ Meanwhile, in the real world, second-term presidents have won world wars, won the Cold War, balanced the budget and generally continued to function while not only not entirely squandering their political capital but, in some cases, rebuilding it.¶ In the real world, where Obama himself ostensibly spent all his political capital on health reform and was then re-elected handily, political capital is a much more fungible commodity.¶ There are presidents who confound the laws of political capital and lame duckness just because of who they are. In Ronald Reagan’s case, this ability to magically repel conventional wisdom earned him the label “Teflon president.” Obama has already defied conventional wisdom and most unwritten laws of electoral politics, presidential campaigns, economic drag factors and identity politics, which makes the biggest second-term threat not political capital depreciation or lame duckdom, but hubris.
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Van Dusen former int’l news editor in Washington, D.C. 2/10/2013 Lisa “The truth about second-term politics” Ottawa Citizen http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/truth+about+second+term+politics/7945084/story.html
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When Obama delivers his fifth State of the Union address he’ll have two uninvited guests that myth of political capital and the unwritten lame-duck rule. Between the shrinking political capital account and the lame-duck countdown clock, by some estimates Obama ceased to be the fully functioning, politically capitalized president last Wednesday Meanwhile, in the real world, second-term presidents have won world wars, won the Cold War, balanced the budget and generally continued to function while not only not entirely squandering their political capital but, in some cases, rebuilding it In the real world, political capital is a much more fungible commodity. There are presidents who confound the laws of political capital and lame duckness just because of who they are. Obama has already defied conventional wisdom and most unwritten laws of electoral politics which makes the biggest second-term threat not political capital depreciation or lame duckdom
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(--) Obama overcomes criticisms of second term presidents
| 1,640 | 58 | 960 | 252 | 8 | 146 | 0.031746 | 0.579365 |
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President Barack Obama's public standing has remained relatively steady over the last month, according to a Pew Research poll released Wednesday, although most Americans disapprove of how he handles privacy and civil liberties issues.¶ The Pew poll puts his approval rating at 49 percent, down from 51 percent in May, consistent with other recent polling. While a CNN poll found that Obama's approval had dropped 8 points since May, most surveys show the president's ratings remaining stable amid recent controversies over National Security Agency surveillance. In an average of polls taken last week, Obama's approval ratings dipped about 2 points.¶ HuffPost Pollster's chart, which combines all publicly available polling, puts Obama's average approval just below 47 percent, down from 48 percent in May and 51 percent at the beginning of 2013.
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Ariel Edwards-Levy (staff writer for the Huffington Post) June 19, 2013. Retrieved June 27, 2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/19/obama-approval-rating_n_3467378.html
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President Barack Obama's public standing has remained relatively steady over the last month, according to a Pew Research poll released Wednesday, most surveys show the president's ratings remaining stable amid recent controversies over National Security Agency surveillance. polling, puts Obama's average approval just below 47 percent, down from 48 percent in May and 51 percent at the beginning of 2013.
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Obama’s approval ratings remain stable---other polls are outliers
| 848 | 65 | 407 | 131 | 8 | 60 | 0.061069 | 0.458015 |
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For the embargo to end, we need presidential leadership. The Helms-Burton Act, which keeps this Cold War construct in place, can only be undone by another act of Congress. As anyone who has been alive for the past four years knows, between the partisanship and the payola, our House and Senate are unlikely to accomplish anything, absent strong presidential leadership. Without re-election to worry about, Obama is well poised to bring about peace with our neighbor. Nixon went to China. McCain went back to Hanoi. All of us should be able to go to Cuba.
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Peter Swanson, (executive editor of PassageMaker magazine) Jan. 16, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from http://blog.soundingsonline.com/2013/01/16/end-the-embargo/
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For the embargo to end, we need presidential leadership. The Helms-Burton Act, which keeps this Cold War construct in place, can only be undone by another act of Congress between the partisanship and the payola, our House and Senate are unlikely to accomplish anything, absent strong presidential leadership
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Presidential leadership is needed to lift the Cuban embargo.
| 554 | 61 | 307 | 95 | 9 | 48 | 0.094737 | 0.505263 |
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Mitt Romney seemed to suggest that he would sanction an assassination attempt against Fidel Castro. “If I’m fortunate to become the next president of the United States it is my expectation that Fidel Castro will finally be taken off this planet,” he said.¶ And while President Barack Obama has courageously rolled back some travel and humanitarian restrictions on U.S. citizens and Cuban-Americans, he too has stated his continued support of the embargo.¶ Why, in an era of unprecedented partisanship gridlock, is there such widespread support among Washington’s leading politicians for an outdated and inhumane embargo?
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Jess Hunter-Bowman (Associate Director of Witness for Peace) Apr. 2, 2012. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from http://otherwords.org/our_failed_cuba_policy_fixation/
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Romney seemed to suggest that he would sanction an assassination attempt against Fidel Castro And while Obama has courageously rolled back some travel and humanitarian restrictions on U.S. citizens and Cuban-Americans, he too has stated his continued support of the embargo.¶ Why, in an era of unprecedented partisanship gridlock, is there such widespread support among Washington’s leading politicians for an outdated and inhumane embargo?
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Washington’s leading politicians all favor the embargo.
| 620 | 56 | 440 | 95 | 7 | 64 | 0.073684 | 0.673684 |
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2,782 |
Ironically, some of the biggest opponents of travel freedom represent the state that would likely benefit the most from normal relations — two of the most prominent being Florida U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio. These two Republicans are among the true believers, but they are reinforced by a posse of congress people around the country who take Cuban-American campaign contributions like hogs at a trough.
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Peter Swanson, (executive editor of PassageMaker magazine) Jan. 16, 2013. Retrieved May 29, 2013 from http://blog.soundingsonline.com/2013/01/16/end-the-embargo/
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Ironically, some of the biggest opponents of travel freedom represent the state that would likely benefit the most from normal relations they are reinforced by a posse of congress people around the country who take Cuban-American campaign contributions like hogs at a trough.
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Lifting travel restrictions to Cuba is opposed by Congress.
| 438 | 60 | 275 | 70 | 9 | 43 | 0.128571 | 0.614286 |
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Seriously? Will Cuban-American hawks with disproportional political clout impose their outdated Cold War mentality that has harmed US interests at least as much as the Castro regime? The vast majority of Americans, including Republicans, frankly stopped caring about Cuba decades ago and even a majority of the mostly Floridian Cuban community now favors more rapprochement to influence an unstoppable democratic transition in Cuba.
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Andres Cala, (energy expert), ENERGY TRIBUNE, July 7, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2013 from http://www.energytribune.com/8204/drill-cuba-drill
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Seriously? Will Cuban-American hawks with disproportional political clout impose their outdated Cold War mentality that has harmed US interests at least as much as the Castro regime?
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CUBAN AMERICAN HAWKS HOLD DISPROPORTIONATE POLITICAL CLOUT.
| 432 | 59 | 182 | 63 | 7 | 27 | 0.111111 | 0.428571 |
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The broader economic embargo against Cuba stands. Only Congress can scrap it, and many in the new Republican majority still support it. But the administration has taken a further step in reversing George Bush’s tightening of the embargo.
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THE ECONOMIST, Jan. 20, 2011. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2013 from http://www.economist.com/node/17967074
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The broader economic embargo against Cuba stands. Only Congress can scrap it, and many in the new Republican majority still support it.
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THE REPUBLICAN MAJORITY STILL SUPPORTS THE CUBAN EMBARGO.
| 237 | 57 | 135 | 38 | 8 | 22 | 0.210526 | 0.578947 |
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Today, moderate Cuban-Americans have managed to carve out greater space for political debate about U.S. relations with Cuba as attitudes in the community have changed -- a result of both the passing of the old exile generation of the 1960s and the arrival of new immigrants who want to maintain ties with family they left behind. But a network of right-wing radio stations and right-wing bloggers still routinely vilifies moderates by name, branding anyone who favors dialogue as a spy for Castro. The modus operandi is the same as the China Lobby's in the 1950s: One anti-Castro crusader makes dubious accusations of espionage, often based on guilt by association, which the others then repeat ad nauseam, citing one other as proof.¶ Like the China Lobby before it, the Cuba Lobby has also struck fear into the heart of the foreign-policy bureaucracy. The congressional wing of the Cuba Lobby, in concert with its friends in the executive branch, routinely punishes career civil servants who don't toe the line. One of the Cuba Lobby's early targets was John J. "Jay" Taylor, chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, who was given an unsatisfactory annual evaluation report in 1988 by Republican stalwart Elliott Abrams, then assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs, because Taylor reported from Havana that the Cubans were serious about wanting to negotiate peace in southern Africa and Central America. "CANF had close contact with the Cuban desk, which soon turned notably unfriendly toward my reporting from post and it seemed toward me personally," Taylor recalled in an oral history interview. "Mas and the foundation soon assumed that I was too soft on Castro."¶ The risks of crossing the Cuba Lobby were not lost on other foreign-policy professionals. In 1990, Taylor was in Washington to consult about the newly launched TV Martí, which the Cuban government was jamming so completely that Cubans on the island dubbed it, "la TV que no se ve" ("No-see TV"). But TV Martí's patrons in Washington blindly insisted that the vast majority of the Cuban population was watching the broadcasts. Taylor invited the U.S. Information Agency officials responsible for TV Martí to come to Cuba to see for themselves. "Silence prevailed around the table," he recalled. "I don't think anyone there really believed TV Martí signals were being received in Cuba. It was a Kafkaesque moment, a true Orwellian experience, to see a room full of grown, educated men and women so afraid for their jobs or their political positions that they could take part in such a charade."¶ In 1993, the Cuba Lobby opposed the appointment of President Bill Clinton's first choice to be assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs, Mario Baeza, because he had once visited Cuba. According to Stone, fearful of the Cuba Lobby's political clout, Clinton dumped Baeza. Two years later, Clinton caved in to the Cuba Lobby's demand that he fire National Security Council official Morton Halperin, who was the architect of the successful 1995 migration accord with Cuba that created a safe, legal route for Cubans to emigrate to the United States. One chief of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Cuba told me he stopped sending sensitive cables to the State Department altogether because they so often leaked to Cuba Lobby supporters in Congress. Instead, the diplomat flew to Miami so he could report to the department by telephone.¶ During George W. Bush's administration, the Cuba Lobby completely captured the State Department's Latin America bureau (renamed the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs). Bush's first assistant secretary was Otto Reich, a Cuban-American veteran of the Reagan administration and favorite of Miami hard-liners. Reich had run Reagan's "public diplomacy" operation demonizing opponents of the president's Central America policy as communist sympathizers. Reich hired as his deputy Dan Fisk, former staff assistant to Senator Helms and author of the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act. Reich was followed by Roger Noriega, another former Helms staffer, who explained that Bush's policy was aimed at destabilizing the Cuban regime: "We opted for change even if it meant chaos. The Cubans had had too much stability over decades.… Chaos was necessary in order to change reality."¶ In 2002, Bush's undersecretary for arms control and international security, John Bolton, made the dubious charge that Cuba was developing biological weapons. When the national intelligence officer for Latin America, Fulton Armstrong, (along with other intelligence community analysts) objected to this mischaracterization of the community's assessment, Bolton and Reich tried repeatedly to have him fired. The Cuba Lobby began a steady drumbeat of charges that Armstrong was a Cuban agent because his and the community's analysis disputed the Bush team's insistence that the Castro regime was fragile and wouldn't survive the passing of its founder. The 2001 arrest for espionage of the Defense Intelligence Agency's top Cuba analyst, Ana Montes, heightened the Cuba Lobby's hysteria over traitors in government in the same way that the spy cases of the 1950s -- Alger Hiss and the Amerasia magazine affair -- gave the China Lobby ammunition. Armstrong was subjected to repeated and intrusive security investigations, all of which cleared him of wrongdoing. (He completed a four-year term as national intelligence officer and received a prestigious CIA medal recognizing his service when he left the agency in 2008.)
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Leogrande 13 (William M. professor in the department of government at American University's School of Public Affairs in Washington, D.C. For Foreign Policy. “The Cuba Lobby” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/11/the_cuba_lobby_jay_z?page=0,2&wp_login_redirect=0)
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the Cuba Lobby has struck fear into the heart of the foreign-policy bureaucracy One of the Cuba Lobby's early targets was John J. "Jay" Taylor, chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana Taylor reported from Havana that the Cubans were serious about wanting to negotiate the foundation soon assumed that I was too soft on Castro The risks of crossing the Cuba Lobby were not lost on other foreign-policy professionals. ."¶ In 1993, the Cuba Lobby opposed the appointment of Clinton's Baeza, because he had once visited Cuba. fearful of the Cuba Lobby's political clout, Clinton dumped Baeza Two years later, Clinton caved in to the Cuba Lobby's demand that he fire National Security Council official Morton Halperin During George W. Bush's administration, the Cuba Lobby completely captured the State Department's Latin America bureau In 2002 John Bolton, made the charge that Cuba was developing biological weapons the national intelligence officer for Latin America, Fulton Armstrong objected Bolton and Reich tried repeatedly to have him fired. Armstrong was subjected to repeated and intrusive security investigations
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Cuba-hating lobby will block all legislation-empirics prove
| 5,531 | 59 | 1,124 | 878 | 7 | 176 | 0.007973 | 0.200456 |
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When Obama was elected president, promising a "new beginning" in relations with Havana, the Cuba Lobby relied on its congressional wing to stop him. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), the senior Cuban-American Democrat in Congress and now chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, vehemently opposes any opening to Cuba. In March 2009, he signaled his willingness to defy both his president and his party to get his way. Menendez voted with Republicans to block passage of a $410 billion omnibus appropriations bill (needed to keep the government running) because it relaxed the requirement that Cuba pay in advance for food purchases from U.S. suppliers and eased restrictions on travel to the island. To get Menendez to relent, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner had to promise in writing that the administration would consult Menendez on any change in U.S. policy toward Cuba.¶ Senate Republicans also blocked confirmation of Arturo Valenzuela as Obama's assistant secretary for Western Hemisphere affairs until November 2009. With the bureau managed in the interim by Bush holdovers, no one was pushing from below to carry out Obama's new Cuba policy. After Valenzuela stepped down in 2012, Senator Rubio (R-Fla.), whose father left Cuba in the 1950s, held up confirmation of Valenzuela's replacement, Roberta Jacobson, until the administration agreed to tighten restrictions on educational travel to Cuba, undercutting Obama's stated policy of increasing people-to-people engagement.¶ When Obama nominated career Foreign Service officer Jonathan Farrar to be ambassador to Nicaragua, the Cuba Lobby denounced him as soft on communism. During his previous posting as chief of the U.S. diplomatic mission in Havana, Farrar had reported to Washington that Cuba's traditional dissident movement had very little appeal to ordinary Cubans. Menendez and Rubio teamed up to give Farrar a verbal beating during his confirmation hearing for carrying out Obama's policy of engaging the Cuban government rather than simply antagonizing it. When they blocked Farrar's confirmation, Obama withdrew the nomination, sending Farrar as ambassador to Panama instead. Their point made, Menendez and Rubio did not object.¶ The Cuba Lobby's power to derail diplomatic careers is common knowledge among foreign-policy professionals. Throughout Obama's first term, midlevel State Department officials cooperated more closely and deferred more slavishly to congressional opponents of Obama's Cuba policy than to supporters like John Kerry, the new secretary of state who served at the time as Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman. When Senator Kerry tried to get the State Department and USAID to reform the Bush administration's democracy-promotion programs in 2010, he ran into more opposition from the bureaucracy than from Republicans. If Obama intends to finally keep the 2008 campaign promise to take a new direction in relations with Cuba, the job can't be left to foreign-policy bureaucrats, who are so terrified of the Cuba Lobby that they continue to believe, or pretend to believe, absurdities -- that Cubans are watching TV Martí, for instance, or that Cuba is a state sponsor of terrorism. Only a determined president and a tough secretary of state can drive a new policy through a bureaucratic wasteland so paralyzed by fear and inertia.¶
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Leogrande 13 (William M. professor in the department of government at American University's School of Public Affairs in Washington, D.C. For Foreign Policy. “The Cuba Lobby” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/11/the_cuba_lobby_jay_z?page=0,2&wp_login_redirect=0)
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When Obama was elected president, promising a "new beginning" in relations with Havana, the Cuba Lobby relied on its congressional wing to stop him Sen. Menendez chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, vehemently opposes any opening to Cuba To get Menendez to relent, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner had to promise in writing that the administration would consult Menendez on any change in U.S. policy toward Cuba When Obama nominated career Foreign Service officer Jonathan Farrar to be ambassador to Nicaragua, the Cuba Lobby denounced him as soft on communism. Farrar had reported to Washington that Cuba's traditional dissident movement had very little appeal to ordinary Cubans. Menendez and Rubio teamed up to give Farrar a verbal beating Obama withdrew the nomination, sending Farrar as ambassador to Panama instead The Cuba Lobby's power to derail diplomatic careers is common knowledge among foreign-policy professionals If Obama intends to take a new direction in relations with Cuba, the job can't be left to foreign-policy bureaucrats, who are so terrified of the Cuba Lobby
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Senate Republicans block Cuba legistlation
| 3,346 | 42 | 1,102 | 511 | 5 | 171 | 0.009785 | 0.334638 |
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More generally, there is increased skepticism about the impact of trade agreements such as NAFTA and the policies of the World Trade Organization.Roughly a third (35%) say that free trade agreements have been good for the United States, while 44% say they have been bad for the U.S. Support for free trade agreements is now at one of its lowest points in 13 years of Pew Research Center surveys. In 2008, an identical percentage (35%) said free trade agreements were good for the U.S. Support for free trade agreements had increased last year, to 44% in April and 43% in November, despite the struggling economy. As in past surveys on trade, many more Americans say free trade agreements have a negative rather than a positive impact on jobs in the U.S., wages for U.S. workers, and economic growth in this country. And more say their personal finances have been hurt (46%) rather than helped (26%) by free trade agreements. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Nov. 4-7 among 1,255 adults, finds that just 28% of Republicans say that free trade agreements are good for the United States, down from 43% last November. Opinions among Democrats and independents have changed little over the past year.
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Pew Research Center, Nov. 9, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 28, 2013 from http://www.people-press.org/2010/11/09/public-support-for-increased-trade-except-with-south-korea-and-china/
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More generally, there is increased skepticism about the impact of trade agreements such as NAFTA As in past surveys on trade, many more Americans say free trade agreements have a negative rather than a positive impact on jobs in the U.S., wages for U.S. workers, and economic growth in this country. And more say their personal finances have been hurt rather than helped
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EFFORTS TO EXPAND FREE TRADE WILL BE OPPOSED BY THE PUBLIC.
| 1,254 | 59 | 370 | 214 | 11 | 63 | 0.051402 | 0.294393 |
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Meeks said he's waiting to see if the April 14 election is free and fair. If that's the case, he hopes to revive a bipartisan legislative exchange group that was disbanded after the Venezuelan opposition boycotted the 2005 elections, losing their seats. The now-defunct Boston Group brought together a handful of U.S. lawmakers – including Meeks and former Reps. Bill Delahunt (D-Mass.) and Cass Ballenger (R-N.C.) – alongside Chavistas and opposition members. The meetings paved the way for deals through which the Venezuelan oil company provided cheap heating oil to low-income people in the northeastern United States. The group once met for a week in former Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D-Mass.) compound in Hyannis Port, Mass. as well as at Ballenger's home, Meeks said. It included Nicolás Maduro, the acting president who's largely expected to win next month. Meeks faces an uphill battle. Last week, Maduro's government broke off talks with U.S. diplomats to renew full diplomatic relations, which have been suspended since 2010, accusing the Obama administration of meddling in next month's election. “This line of communication is now suspended, postponed until the United States gives a clear message about what kind of relationship they want,” Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elías Jaua said. And several Republicans openly welcomed Chavez's death. The former chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), for her part called Obama's decision to send a delegation “weak and irresponsible.”
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Julian Pecquet, (staff writer), Mar. 26, 2013. Retrieved Apr. 28, 2013 from http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/americas/290225-us-lawmaker-seeks-rapprochement-with-post-chavez-venezuela-
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Meeks hopes to revive a bipartisan legislative exchange group The now-defunct Boston Group brought together a handful of U.S. lawmakers The meetings paved the way for deals through which the Venezuelan oil company provided cheap heating oil to low-income people in the northeastern United States. Meeks faces an uphill battle. Last week, Maduro's government broke off talks with U.S. diplomats to renew full diplomatic relations, which have been suspended since 2010, accusing the Obama administration of meddling in next month's election. “This line of communication is now suspended, postponed until the United States gives a clear message about what kind of relationship they want The former chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, for her part called Obama's decision to send a delegation “weak and irresponsible.”
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EFFORTS TO ENGAGE A POST CHAVEZ VENEZUELA WILL BE OPPOSED BY REPUBLICANS.
| 1,528 | 73 | 829 | 235 | 12 | 126 | 0.051064 | 0.53617 |
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The Obama administration itself has not hidden the fact that it sees a limited window to enact its agenda, almost like a game of "beat the clock." As long as Obama's job approval ratings are comfortably high - currently in the 60s in major polls - he has the political capital to address the pent-up demand for change that is inevitable when the opposition party takes over from an unpopular previous administration. But, there's only so much a White House and Congress can accomplish, given the deliberative nature of the process, and even members of Obama's own party are raising warning flags about the magnitude of the new president's agenda.
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CSMonitor 9. [March 12 – lexis]
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The Obama administration itself has not hidden the fact that it sees a limited window to enact its agenda, almost like a game of "beat the clock." As long as Obama's job approval ratings are comfortably high - he has the political capital to address the pent-up demand for change that is inevitable when the opposition party takes over from an unpopular previous administration. But, there's only so much a White House and Congress can accomplish, given the magnitude of the new president's agenda.
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OBAMA’S AGENDA IS FINITE – FOCUS IS KEY – PLAN DERAILS THE AGENDA.
| 648 | 67 | 500 | 110 | 13 | 84 | 0.118182 | 0.763636 |
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A budget out of balance and a populace more worried about the economic present than our atmospheric future does not bode well for global warming emerging as a top-tier issue in the early days of the new administration. An agenda crowded with critical items - an economy in recession, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the continuing mortgage meltdown, healthcare - awaits our newly elected leaders. There are only so many priorities that an administration and Congress can focus on, and they will need to make choices on how to use their initial honeymoon period and their finite supply of political capital.
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GOMES 8. [11-10 Jim, columnist, “A climate plan in peril?” Boston Globe -- http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/green/articles/2008/11/10/a_climate_plan_in_peril/]
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An agenda crowded with critical items - an economy in recession, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the continuing mortgage meltdown, healthcare - awaits our newly elected leaders. There are only so many priorities that an administration and Congress can focus on, and they will need to make choices on how to use their initial honeymoon period and their finite supply of political capital.
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PRESIDENTIAL FOCUS IS KEY TO GETTING THE AGENDA – PLAN IS A SURPRISE DERAILING THE AGENDA
| 605 | 90 | 386 | 101 | 16 | 63 | 0.158416 | 0.623762 |
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The constraint of "time" is another trade-off the White House mustmanage. Members of Congress regularly criticize the White House for only being able to focus on one single issue at a time, a trait common to the White House legislative office that routinely works this way during major legislative battles, focusing its attention to winning a key vote on the House or Senate floor, and disposing of it before moving on to another project. Congress, with its diverse committee system and decentralized power structure, processes a variety of issues simultaneously. A typical legislative day might find two or three keyissues on the floor, leadership meetings about the agenda for the following week, and a half a dozen critical markups in committees. Given all the issues Congress can present to the president and the limited number of hours in a day or week, it is critical how the White House prioritizes. The White House must decide which issues to get involved with and which to ignore or delegate to others within the administration. The resolution of these choices and the trade-offs ultimatelyshape the White House-congressional agenda.
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ANDRES 00. [Gary, president for legislative affairs in the Bush Administration, Presidential Studies Quarterly, September -- lexis]
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The constraint of "time" is another trade-off the White House mustmanage. Members of Congress regularly criticize the White House for only being able to focus on one single issue at a time, a trait common to the White House legislative office that routinely works this way focusing its attention to winning a key vote on the House or Senate floor, and disposing of it before moving on to another project it is critical how the White House prioritizes. The White House must decide which issues to get involved with and which to ignore
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PRESIDENTIAL FOCUS KEY AGENDA – PLAN TRADES OFF.
| 1,142 | 49 | 533 | 185 | 8 | 93 | 0.043243 | 0.502703 |
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In addition, the White House wants to ensure that its proposals compete favorably with other proposals on the agenda. If presidents cannot focus Congress’s attention on their priority programs, the programs will get lost in the complex and overloaded legislative process. Moreover, presidents and their staff have the time and energy to lobby effectively for only a few bills at a time, and the president’s political capital is inevitably limited. As a result, presidents wish to focus on advancing their own initiatives rather than opposing or modifying the proposals of others. Thus, the White House not only wants its initiatives to be on the congressional agenda but also prefers to have fewer congressional initiatives with which it must deal.
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EDWARDS AND BARRETT 00. [George & Andrew, distinguished professor of political science @ A&M, assistant lecturer/PhD Candidate in political science @ A&M, Polarized Politics: Congress and the President in a Partisan Era, ed Bond and Fleisher p 110]
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If presidents cannot focus Congress’s attention on their priority programs, the programs will get lost in the complex and overloaded legislative process. Moreover, presidents and their staff have the time and energy to lobby effectively for only a few bills at a time, and the president’s political capital is inevitably limited. As a result, presidents wish to focus on advancing their own initiatives rather than opposing or modifying the proposals of others. Thus, the White House not only wants its initiatives to be on the congressional agenda but also prefers to have fewer congressional initiatives with which it must deal.
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Focus key to passing the president’s agenda.
| 748 | 45 | 630 | 119 | 7 | 100 | 0.058824 | 0.840336 |
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WASHINGTON -- A Republican Party in desperate search for relevance to Latino voters. An expanded Democratic advantage in the Senate. A second-term President with his legacy on the line.¶ Does all that add up to enough to break decades of impasse and produce comprehensive immigration reform? As expectations -- and tensions -- rise, the answer won't be long in coming.¶ A bipartisan bill could be filed in the Senate as early as next week, followed in relatively short order by a House bill, also crafted by a bipartisan group, aiming at a compromise on the key issue of citizenship.¶ The efforts are being applauded by President Barack Obama, who is using every ounce of his political clout to try to get comprehensive reform.¶ Obama said the time has come "to work up the political courage to do what's required to be done."¶ "I expect a bill to be put forward. I expect a debate to begin next month. I want to sign that bill into law as soon as possible," Obama said at a White House naturalization ceremony.¶ In addition to the issue of eventual citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants, Congress is expected to address the need for temporary or guest worker programs.¶ Congress last passed comprehensive bipartisan reform legislation in 1986, when President Ronald Reagan signed a law that granted citizenship to several million undocumented immigrants and created a guest worker program.¶ Up until now, Republicans have opposed citizenship programs as an "amnesty" for lawbreakers who entered the country illegally, and labor has chafed at guest worker programs.¶ But Republican losses in the 2012 elections and increased public support for reform have many in the GOP talking compromise.¶ "If there is one issue that the two parties could produce something meaningful on in this Congress, it would be immigration," said Stephen Hess, a political expert at The Brookings Institution.¶ Hess said an eventual bill "will have lots of provisos, and it will go back and forth, but it would be hard not to produce something given the general feeling that something has to be produced."¶ More and more Republicans are moving toward immigration-reform measures as the party seeks to reach out to Latinos, the nation's largest -- and growing -- minority voting bloc.
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Gary Martin, (staff writer), Mar. 28, 2013. Retrieved Apr. 28, 2013 from http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Immigration-reform-gaining-support-in-Congress-4393187.php Immigration reform gaining support in Congress, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
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The efforts are being applauded by Obama, who is using every ounce of his political clout to try to get comprehensive reform.¶ Obama said the time has come "to work up the political courage to do what's required to be done Republican losses in the 2012 elections and increased public support for reform have many in the GOP talking compromise If there is one issue that the two parties could produce something meaningful on in this Congress, it would be immigration
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PRESIDENT OBAMA’S POLITICAL CAPITAL IS KEY TO IMMIGRATION REFORM.
| 2,273 | 65 | 465 | 375 | 9 | 81 | 0.024 | 0.216 |
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Obama has repeatedly said he will push hard for immigration reform in his second term, and administration officials have said that other contentious legislative initiatives -- including gun control and the debt ceiling -- won't be allowed to get in the way. At least at first glance, he seems to have politics on his side. GOP lawmakers are entering -- or, in some cases, re-entering -- the immigration debate in the wake of disastrous results for their party's presidential nominee with Latino voters, who support reform by large measures. Based on those new political realities, "it would be a suicidal impulse for Republicans in Congress to continue to block [reform]," David Axelrod, a longtime adviser to the president, told The Huffington Post.¶ Now there's the question of how Obama gets there. While confrontation might work with Republicans on other issues -- the debt ceiling, for example -- the consensus is that the GOP is serious enough about reform that the president can, and must, play the role of broker and statesman to get a deal.¶ It starts with a lesson from his first term. Republicans have demanded that the border be secured first, before other elements of immigration reform. Yet the administration has been by many measures the strictest ever on immigration enforcement, and devotes massive sums to policing the borders. The White House has met many of the desired metrics for border security, although there is always more to be done, but Republicans are still calling for more before they will consider reform. Enforcing the border, but not sufficiently touting its record of doing so, the White House has learned, won't be enough to win over Republicans.¶ In a briefing with The Huffington Post, a senior administration official said the White House believes it has met enforcement goals and must now move to a comprehensive solution. The administration is highly skeptical of claims from Republicans that immigration reform can or should be done in a piecemeal fashion. Going down that road, the White House worries, could result in passage of the less politically complicated pieces, such as an enforcement mechanism and high-skilled worker visas, while leaving out more contentious items such as a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.¶ "Enforcement is certainly part of the picture," the official said. "But if you go back and look at the 2006 and 2007 bills, if you go back and look at John McCain's 10-point 'This is what I've got to get done before I'm prepared to talk about immigration,' and then you look at what we're actually doing, it's like 'check, check, check.' We're there. The border is as secure as it's been in a generation or two, so it's really time."¶ One key in the second term, advocates say, will be convincing skeptics such as Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas that the Obama administration held up its end of the bargain by proving a commitment to enforcement.
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Elise Foley, (staff writer), Jan. 15, 2013. Retrieved Apr. 28, 2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/15/obama-immigration-reform_n_2463388.html, Accessed 4/24/2013, rwg)
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Obama has repeatedly said he will push hard for immigration reform in his second term Now there's the question of how Obama gets there the consensus is that the GOP is serious enough about reform that the president can, and must, play the role of broker and statesman to get a deal One key in the second term, advocates say, will be convincing skeptics that the Obama administration held up its end of the bargain by proving a commitment to enforcement.
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POLITICAL CAPITAL IS CRITICAL TO IMMIGRATION REFORM—OBAMA MUST PLAY THE ROLE OF A STATESMAN.
| 2,934 | 92 | 453 | 488 | 14 | 81 | 0.028689 | 0.165984 |
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There is, however, a notable change in Obama’s style compared to the first term. He is far more confident and is proclaiming clear positions on key issues, such as raising tax rates on the most wealthy. Previously, Obama had been quite passive and would ask the Congress to present him with a proposal. Today, buoyed by a decisive win in November and more enthusiastic and expectant Democratic supporters, Obama is more inclined to take the initiative and draw some clear lines.¶ How the “fiscal cliff” question is managed and ultimately resolved will likely shape the tenor and climate for Obama’s second-term agenda. If it leaves a bitter taste, then the rest of Obama’s domestic priorities will be more difficult to achieve. If both parties think they gained something in the bargain, prospects for results in other areas will improve.¶ Not surprisingly, Obama has been explicit that reforming the US’s shameful and broken immigration system will be a top priority in his second term. There is every indication that he intends to use some of his precious political capital – especially in the first year – to push for serious change. The biggest lesson of the last election was that the “Latino vote” was decisive. No one doubts that it will be even more so in future elections. During the campaign, many Republicans -- inexplicably -- frightened immigrants with offensive rhetoric. But the day after the election, there was talk, in both parties, of comprehensive immigration reform.¶ Despite the sudden optimism about immigration reform, there is, of course, no guarantee that it will happen. It will require a lot of negotiation and deal-making. Obama will have to invest a lot of his time and political capital -- twisting some arms, even in his own party. Resistance will not disappear. ¶ There is also a chance that something unexpected could happen that would put off consideration of immigration reform. Following the horrific massacre at a Connecticut elementary school on December 14, for example, public pressure understandably mounted for gun control, at least the ban of assault weapons. But a decision to pursue that measure -- though desperately needed -- would take away energy and time from other priorities like immigration.
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Shifter, 12/27/2013 --- adjunct professor of Latin American politics at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service (12/27/2012, Michael, Revista Ideel, “Will Obama Kick the Can Down the Road?” http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3186) CMR
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There is a notable change in Obama’s style compared to the first term. He is far more confident buoyed by a decisive win in November and more enthusiastic and expectant Democratic supporters, Obama is more inclined to take the initiative and draw some clear lines. Obama has been explicit that reforming the US’s shameful and broken immigration system will be a top priority in his second term There is every indication that he intends to use some of his precious political capital to push for serious change Despite the sudden optimism about immigration reform, there is, of course, no guarantee that it will happen. It will require a lot of negotiation and deal-making. Obama will have to invest a lot of his time and political capital -- twisting some arms, even in his own party. Resistance will not disappear. ¶ There is also a chance that something unexpected could happen that would put off consideration of immigration reform
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Obama’s capital is key
| 2,245 | 22 | 933 | 368 | 4 | 158 | 0.01087 | 0.429348 |
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We are still a long way from success. The 50 or so House radicals almost certainly will oppose comprehensive immigration reform when it comes to a vote—making a truly bipartisan bill functionally necessary as well as ideal.¶ On Wednesday, the president is taking his State of the Union proposals on the road in a bit of campaign-style salesmanship. But while boosting poll numbers can help give cowardly legislators courage, it can’t write legislation. There is urgency, opportunity, and self-interest—combined with a president committed to making immigration reform a core part of his legacy. The failures of the past might help to finally focus the collective mind in Washington.
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Avlon 2/13/2013, John, senior columnist for Newsweek and The Daily Beast, CNN contributor, winner of the National Society of Newspaper Columnists’ award for best online column in 2012; “Obama’s 2012 State of the Union and the Immigration Reform Moment,” The Daily Beast http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/02/13/obama-s-2013-state-of-the-union-and-the-immigration-reform-moment.html
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We are still a long way from success making a truly bipartisan bill functionally necessary the president is taking his State of the Union proposals on the road in a bit of campaign-style salesmanship There is urgency, opportunity, and self-interest—combined with a president committed to making immigration reform a core part of his legacy
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It’ll be a tough fight, but Obama commitment is key
| 681 | 51 | 339 | 108 | 10 | 54 | 0.092593 | 0.5 |
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On Sunday, President Barack Obama said that immigration reform is a "top priority" on his agenda and that he would introduce legislation in his first year.¶ To find out what he needs to do to make reform a reality, we talked to Lynn Tramonte, the deputy director at America's Voice, a group that lobbies for immigration reform, and Muzaffar Chishti, the director of the New York office of Migration Policy Institute, a think tank. Here's what we came up with.¶ 1. Be a Leader¶ During Obama's first term, bipartisan legislation never got off the ground. The president needs to do a better job leading the charge this time around, according to Chishti. "He has to make it clear that it's a high priority of his," he said. "He has to make it clear that he'll use his bully pulpit and his political muscle to make it happen, and he has to be open to using his veto power." His announcement this weekend is a step in that direction, but he needs to follow through.
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Hesson, 1/2/2013 (Ted, 1/2/2013, “Analysis: 6 Things Obama Needs To Do for Immigration Reform,” http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/News/things-president-obama-immigration-reform/story?id=18103115#.UOR2lXfbhtE)) CMR
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Obama said that immigration reform is a "top priority" on his agenda and that he would introduce legislation in his first year ¶ To find out what he needs to do to make reform a reality we talked to Tramonte, the deputy director at America's Voice, a group that lobbies for immigration reform and Chishti, the director of the New York office of Migration Policy Institute The president needs to do a better job leading the charge this time around "He has to make it clear that it's a high priority of his," He has to make it clear that he'll use his political muscle to make it happen, and he has to be open to using his veto power." His announcement this weekend is a step in that direction, but he needs to follow through.
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Obama’s prioritization is key to passage
| 959 | 40 | 724 | 174 | 6 | 136 | 0.034483 | 0.781609 |
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President Barack Obama said all the right things Sunday about immigration reform. The president told NBC’s Meet the Press that he is serious about getting Congress to overhaul the laws governing immigrants. He even declared that he will introduce an immigration bill this year.¶ This newspaper welcomes that announcement. Texans particularly understand the unique challenges that an outdated immigration system presents. Even though the flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S. has subsided in the last few years, the many holes in the system leave families, schools, businesses and law enforcement struggling. And those are just some of the constituents challenged by flawed immigration laws.¶ The president’s words to NBC’s David Gregory are only that — words. What will really matter is whether he puts his muscle into the task this year.¶ We suggest that Obama start by looking at the example of former President George W. Bush. Back in 2006 and 2007, the Republican and his administration constantly worked Capitol Hill to pass a comprehensive plan. They failed, largely because Senate Republicans balked. But the opposition didn’t stop the Bush White House from fully engaging Congress, including recalcitrant Republicans.¶ Obama may have a similar problem with his own party. The dirty little secret in the 2006 and 2007 immigration battles was that some Democrats were content to let Senate Republicans kill the effort. Labor-friendly Democrats didn’t want a bill, either.¶ And they may not want one this year. That reluctance is a major reason the president needs to invest in this fight. He must figure out how to bring enough Democrats along, while also reaching out to Republicans.¶ In short, the nation doesn’t need a repeat of the process through which the 2010 health care legislation was passed. Very few Republicans bought into the president’s plan, leaving the Affordable Care Act open to partisan sniping throughout last year’s election. If the nation is going to create a saner immigration system, both parties need to support substantial parts of an answer.¶ The new system must include a guest worker program for future immigrants and a way for illegal immigrants already living here to legalize their status over time. Some House Republicans will object to one or both of those reforms, so Speaker John Boehner must be persuasive about the need for a wholesale change.¶ But the leadership that matters most will come from the White House. The president has staked out the right position. Now he needs to present a bill and fight this year for a comprehensive solution. Nothing but action will count.
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DMN, 1/2 (Dallas Morning News, “Editorial: Actions must match Obama’s immigration pledge,” 1/2/2013, http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20130102-editorial-actions-must-match-obamas-immigration-pledge.ece)
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Obama said all the right things Sunday about immigration reform he is serious about getting Congress to overhaul the laws governing immigrants What will really matter is whether he puts his muscle into the task this year We suggest that Obama start by looking at the example of Bush Back in 2006 and 2007, the Republican and his administration constantly worked Capitol Hill to pass a comprehensive plan. They failed, largely because Senate Republicans balked Obama may have a problem with his own party. The dirty little secret in the 2006 and 2007 immigration battles was that some Democrats were content to let Senate Republicans kill the effort. Labor-friendly Democrats didn’t want a bill, either. And they may not want one this year. That reluctance is a major reason the president needs to invest in this fight. He must figure out how to bring enough Democrats along, while also reaching out to Republicans. If the nation is going to create a saner immigration system, both parties need to support substantial parts of an answer the leadership that matters most will come from the White House. The president has staked out the right position. Now he needs to present a bill and fight this year for a comprehensive solution
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Obama’s capital and bipartisan cooperation are key to effective reform
| 2,623 | 70 | 1,230 | 424 | 10 | 208 | 0.023585 | 0.490566 |
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President Barack Obama threw his full support behind a comprehensive overhaul of U.S. immigration laws on Tuesday, saying "now's the time" to replace a system he called "out of date and badly broken."¶ The president specified three pillars of immigration reform: better enforcement of immigration laws, providing a path to citizenship for the more than 11 million undocumented immigrants already in the country, and reforming the legal immigration system.¶ Speaking at a majority Hispanic high school in Las Vegas, Obama said "a broad consensus is emerging" behind the issue across the country, with signs of progress in Congress.¶ However, he acknowledged a fierce debate ahead on an issue he described as emotional and challenging, but vital to economic growth and ensuring equal opportunity for all.¶ "At this moment, it looks like there's a genuine desire to get this done soon. And that's very encouraging," Obama said, later adding: "This time, action must follow. We can't allow immigration reform to get bogged down in an endless debate."¶ The president spoke a day after eight senators -- four from each party -- introduced a framework for overhauling the immigration system that would provide an eventual path to citizenship for most of the more than 11 million undocumented immigrants in America.¶ While touted as a breakthrough by its drafters, the plan was similar in many aspects to previous immigration reform efforts that have failed in recent years.¶ Obama described the blueprint as a sign of renewed desire by Democrats and Republicans to tackle the issue, saying the plan was "very much in line with the principles I've proposed and campaigned on for the last few years."¶ He was criticized by Latino activists for failing to deliver on a 2008 campaign promise to make overhauling immigration policy a priority of his first term.¶ As his re-election campaign heated up last year, the Obama administration announced a halt to deportations of some young undocumented immigrants in a move that delighted the Latino community.¶ Exit polls in November indicated that Latino voters overwhelmingly supported Obama over GOP challenger Mitt Romney, who had advocated a policy that amounted to forcing undocumented immigrants to deport themselves. Obama won Nevada, a battleground state with a large Hispanic population.¶ Obama appeared on Tuesday at Del Sol High School, which has a 54% Hispanic student body, according to U.S. News and World Report rankings.¶ To earn the opportunity for citizenship, Obama said undocumented immigrants must first pass a background check, learn English, pay a penalty, and then get "in the back of the line" behind people trying to come to America legally.¶ Millions of undocumented immigrants would get immediate but provisional status to live and work in the United States, under the compromise plan crafted by the senate group. That outline also called for strengthening border controls, improved monitoring of visitors and cracking down on hiring undocumented workers.¶ Only after those steps occurred could undocumented immigrants already in the country begin the process of getting permanent residence -- green cards -- as a step toward citizenship, the senators said at a news conference on Monday.¶ Before Obama spoke on Tuesday, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida said any legislation based on the framework he helped draft must include tougher law enforcement sought by conservatives to get his vote.¶ "We need border security, we need workplace enforcement, we need a visa tracking system," Rubio said, adding later that would oppose a bill that lacked language guaranteeing that "nothing else will happen unless these enforcement mechanisms are in place."¶ Rubio and other senators involved in the bipartisan immigration effort said Monday they plan to provide a bill to the Senate Judiciary Committee in March, with hopes of getting the measure passed over the summer¶ A few hours later, Obama said he would propose his own immigration bill if Congress failed to act on the issue in a timely manner.¶ On the House side, a similar effort on immigration is said to be under way involving a group of Republicans and Democrats.¶ Two senior House Democratic sources briefed on that effort told CNN the group was working to release some sort of outline of its plan soon, possibly as early as this week, but concede "they are not as far along as the Senate."¶ Senate lays out blueprint¶ The principles described by Obama on Tuesday were similar to the framework proposed Monday by the eight senators.¶ Conservatives split on reform¶ Other conservatives immediately voiced their opposition to what they called amnesty, a code word on the political right for providing undocumented immigrants a path to legal status.¶ "Our immigration laws aren't broken, they just aren't enforced," argued Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, after Obama's speech. " ... We've been down this road before with politicians promising to enforce the law in return for amnesty. And then after the amnesty, they fail to make good on the enforcement promises. The American people should not be fooled. When you legalize those who are in the country illegally, it costs taxpayers millions of dollars, costs American workers thousands of jobs and encourages more illegal immigration."¶ Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah objected to the framework by his Senate colleagues, saying the guidelines "contemplate a policy that will grant special benefits to undocumented immigrants based on their unlawful presence in the country."¶ What's in Senate immigration plan?¶ Rubio rejected such a characterization on Tuesday, saying that the framework would require undocumented immigrants to undergo a background check and face immediate deportation if they committed any serious crimes.¶ Otherwise, they then would have to pay any taxes owed as well as a fine to get what Rubio called "the equivalent of a non-resident visa that allows you to work here." An opportunity to get a green card and possible citizenship would only come after the government undertakes other steps, such as increasing border security, he added.¶ Obama, meanwhile, signaled disagreement with Republicans over the state of border security, saying in his speech that the Southwest border was more secure than ever.¶ He mentioned steps to crack down on the hiring of undocumented workers, as well as unclogging the legal immigration system to encourage highly skilled and educated workers already in the country to remain instead of taking their expertise abroad.¶ Democratic senators backing the framework unveiled Monday plan include Chuck Schumer of New York, Dick Durbin of Illinois, Robert Menendez of New Jersey and Michael Bennet of Colorado. On the Republican side were Rubio, John McCain of Arizona, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Jeff Flake of Arizona.¶ Durbin said Tuesday that immigration reform must have bipartisan support to work, so it won't include everything everyone wants.¶ "It's going to look different than what I might write, or the president might write," he said.¶ Like the Senate framework, the House plan will include a path to citizenship, but details of how that will work are still being discussed.¶ The Senate proposal is a good starting point, Rep. Joe Garcia, D-Florida, said Tuesday on CNN.¶ "I think it puts us in a very good place," he said.¶ A litany of left-leaning advocacy groups spoke out on the senators' plan, praising it as a good first step but cautioning against harming the rights of workers.¶ "The people of this country are ready for us to be one country again without second-class people being mistreated simply because they lack paper, even though they are already contributing to our economy and our tax system," NAACP President Ben Jealous said.
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Cohen et al. 1/30/12 (CNN's Dan Lothian in Las Vegas and Dana Bash, Ed Payne, Deirdre Walsh, Kevin Liptak, Catherine E. Shoichet , Jessica Yellin and Matt Smith contributed to this report, which was written by Tom Cohen in Washington, “'Now's the time' to move on immigration, Obama says,” CNN.com, 1/30/13 http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/29/politics/immigration-reform/index.html)
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Obama threw his full support behind overhaul of immigration laws saying "now's the time" Obama said "a broad consensus is emerging" behind the issue across the country, with signs of progress in Congress Durbin said that reform must have bipartisan support to work, so it won't include everything everyone wants The Senate proposal is a good starting point, Rep Garcia said "I think it puts us in a very good place," he said
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Obama’s all-in on immigration – compromise is likely now, but leadership is still required
| 7,784 | 90 | 424 | 1,245 | 14 | 73 | 0.011245 | 0.058635 |
Politics Disadvantage - Samford 2013.html5
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Samford
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