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“Climate change effects reduce biodiversity, cause a decline in quality of life, change landscapes and have enormous social consequences. But what does all this mean in economic terms?” asks Perdomo, a researcher at the Centre for Environmental Studies and Services in Villa Clara, 268 kilometres from Havana.¶ In an interview with IPS, she said that this kind of analysis should be given more attention when decisions are being made about how to protect the environment, and when planning ecological projects, defining environmental education messages and programmes and planning construction or other works that could harm vulnerable areas.¶ “One way of determining the value of a service, resource or ecosystem is to consider the cost of replacing it if it were not available,” she said. “What losses are caused by a tropical cyclone or a prolonged drought? How much would it cost to take clean water to arable lands left without water sources?”¶ Related IPS Articles¶ Greening Havana¶ Spreading Climate Literacy in Cuba¶ ENVIRONMENT-CUBA: 'Forest Ranger' Looks After Havana's Trees¶ In Cuba, as in other Caribbean countries, the effects of global warming will have the greatest impact on coastal areas, although the whole island will be increasingly affected by extreme weather events, such as heat waves, prolonged periods of drought and heavy rains. Potable water and fertile land will be scarcer and biodiversity will be diminished.¶ Some 80 coastal settlements are likely to be affected and 15 could disappear by 2050 if the Cuban government does not implement adaptation measures in response to the prediction that, by then, 2.32 percent of the national territory will be permanently under water, according to the Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment.
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González 5/7 (Ivet Gonzalez, Co-editor of the Inter Press Service News Agency, “Cuba Wakes Up to Costs of Climate Change Effects”, May, 7, 2013, http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/cuba-wakes-up-to-costs-of-climate-change-effects/, MS)
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biodiversity, cause a decline in quality of life, change landscapes and have enormous social consequences. she said that this kind of analysis should be given more attention when decisions are being made about how to protect the environment, and when planning ecological projects, defining environmental education messages and programmes and planning construction or other works that could harm vulnerable areas. One way of determining the value of a resource or ecosystem is to consider the cost of replacing it What losses are caused by a tropical cyclone or a prolonged drought? How much would it cost to take clean water to arable lands left without water sources?” In Cuba , the effects of global warming will have the greatest impact on coastal areas the whole island will be increasingly affected by extreme weather events Potable water and fertile land will be scarcer and biodiversity will be diminished. Some 80 coastal settlements are likely to be affected and 15 could disappear by 2050 if the Cuban government does not implement adaptation measures
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Cuban Biodiversity loss cause less clean water and fertile land
| 1,775 | 63 | 1,061 | 278 | 10 | 171 | 0.035971 | 0.615108 |
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Through accidents of geography and history, Cuba is a priceless ecological resource. That is why many scientists are so worried about what will become of it after Fidel Castro and his associates leave power and, as is widely anticipated, the American government relaxes or ends its trade embargo.Cuba has avoided much environmental degradation in recent decades, but now hotel developments are seen extending into the water in Cayo Coco. More Photos >Cuba, by far the region’s largest island, sits at the confluence of the Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. Its mountains, forests, swamps, coasts and marine areas are rich in plants and animals, some seen nowhere else.And since the imposition of the embargo in 1962, and especially with the collapse in 1991 of the Soviet Union, its major economic patron, Cuba’s economy has stagnated.Cuba has not been free of development, including Soviet-style top-down agricultural and mining operations and, in recent years, an expansion of tourism. But it also has an abundance of landscapes that elsewhere in the region have been ripped up, paved over, poisoned or otherwise destroyed in the decades since the Cuban revolution, when development has been most intense. Once the embargo ends, the island could face a flood of investors from the United States and elsewhere, eager to exploit those landscapes.Conservationists, environmental lawyers and other experts, from Cuba and elsewhere, met last month in Cancún, Mexico, to discuss the island’s resources and how to continue to protect them.Cuba has done “what we should have done — identify your hot spots of biodiversity and set them aside,” said Oliver Houck, a professor of environmental law at Tulane University Law School who attended the conference.In the late 1990s, Mr. Houck was involved in an effort, financed in part by the MacArthur Foundation, to advise Cuban officials writing new environmental laws.But, he said in an interview, “an invasion of U.S. consumerism, a U.S.-dominated future, could roll over it like a bulldozer” when the embargo ends.By some estimates, tourism in Cuba is increasing 10 percent annually. At a minimum, Orlando Rey Santos, the Cuban lawyer who led the law-writing effort, said in an interview at the conference, “we can guess that tourism is going to increase in a very fast way” when the embargo ends.“It is estimated we could double tourism in one year,” said Mr. Rey, who heads environmental efforts at the Cuban ministry of science, technology and environment.About 700 miles long and about 100 miles wide at its widest, Cuba runs from Haiti west almost to the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico. It offers crucial habitat for birds, like Bicknell’s thrush, whose summer home is in the mountains of New England and Canada, and the North American warblers that stop in Cuba on their way south for the winter.Zapata Swamp, on the island’s southern coast, may be notorious for its mosquitoes, but it is also known for its fish, amphibians, birds and other creatures. Among them is the Cuban crocodile, which has retreated to Cuba from a range that once ran from the Cayman Islands to the Bahamas.Cuba has the most biologically diverse populations of freshwater fish in the region. Its relatively large underwater coastal shelves are crucial for numerous marine species, including some whose larvae can be carried by currents into waters of the United States, said Ken Lindeman, a marine biologist at Florida Institute of Technology.Dr. Lindeman, who did not attend the conference but who has spent many years studying Cuba’s marine ecology, said in an interview that some of these creatures were important commercial and recreational species like the spiny lobster, grouper or snapper.Like corals elsewhere, those in Cuba are suffering as global warming raises ocean temperatures and acidity levels. And like other corals in the region, they reeled when a mysterious die-off of sea urchins left them with algae overgrowth. But they have largely escaped damage frompollution,boattrafficanddestructivefishingpractices.Diving in them “is like going back in time 50 years,” said David Guggenheim, a conference organizer and an ecologist and member of the advisory board of the Harte Research Institute, which helped organize the meeting along with the Center for International Policy, a private group in Washington.In a report last year, the World Wildlife Fund said that “in dramatic contrast” to its island neighbors, Cuba’s beaches, mangroves, reefs, seagrass beds and other habitats were relatively well preserved. Their biggest threat, the report said, was “the prospect of sudden and massive growth in mass tourism when the U.S. embargo lifts.” To prepare for that day, researchers from a number of American institutions and organizations are working on ecological conservation in Cuba, including Harte, the Wildlife Conservation Society, universities like Tulane and Georgetown, institutions like the American Museum of Natural History and the New York Botanical Garden, and others. What they are studying includes coral health, fish stocks, shark abundance, turtle migration and land use patterns.Cuban scientists at the conference noted that this work continued a tradition of collaboration that dates from the mid-19th century, when Cuban researchers began working with naturalists from the Smithsonian Institution. In the 20th century, naturalists from Harvard and the University of Havana worked together for decades
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Dean 7 (Cornelia Dean is a science writer for the New York Times, where she writes mostly about environmental issues and science policy, “Conserving Cuba, After the Embargo” http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/25/science/25cuba.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&) BC
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Cuba is a priceless ecological resource scientists are worried about what will become of it after , the American government relaxes or ends its trade embargo. it has an abundance of landscapes that elsewhere in the region have been ripped up, paved over poisoned or otherwise destroye when development has been most intense Once the embargo the island could face a flood of investors eager to exploit those landscapes an invasion of U.S. consumerism, a U.S.-dominated future, could roll over it like a bulldozer Cuba has the most biologically diverse populations of freshwater fish in the region Diving in them “is like going back in time 50 years Their biggest threat , was the prospect of sudden and massive growth in mass tourism when the U.S. embargo lifts.”
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Commercialism kills Cuban ecosystems
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Gibson 2012 (William E. Gibson, Washington Bureau sun-sentinel Drilling off Cuba prompts disaster plan¶ Officials stress inlets, not beaches¶ April 15, 2012 (http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-04-15/news/fl-cuba-oil-drilling-local-spill-plan-20120415_1_inlets-and-intracoastal-waterways-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill/2) WASHINGTON -- U.S. officials, game-planning for a potential oil spill off the shores of Cuba, are preparing to leave South Florida's beaches exposed while shielding inlets and intracoastal waterways to protect the most vulnerable parts of the state's coastline.¶ ¶ Two years after the Deepwater Horizon disaster underscored the damage to marine life and tourism of a massive oil spill, Cuban-sponsored drilling less than 60 miles from Florida has raised new alarms. In response, the Coast Guard has devised an elaborate plan to contain the damage if an oil slick rushes north on the Gulf Stream, the powerful current that runs along the East Coast.¶ Broward and Palm Beach county officials feel better prepared because of lessons from the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, which erupted on April 20, 2010. But they are not so confident that their beaches, reefs and bays -- and the tourism dollars they generate -- can be fully protected.¶ "If we do have a large spill, I'm not sure we have the capability of intercepting all of it," said Eric Myers,Broward County's natural resources administrator. "It will go to the beaches. And quite honestly, I think that most of the plans assume that a lot of oil can be collected from the beaches, which is what they did in the upper Gulf Coast."¶ U.S. officials are increasingly confident that Cuban authorities would allow Americans to enter Cuban waters to help contain a major spill at its source. They plan to skim oil from the ocean surface, contain it, burn it or disperse it with chemicals before it comes near land.¶ But if a slick heads for South Florida, the Coast Guard plan calls for a series of booms to block surface oil from entering inlets and intracoastal waterways, especially near Port Everglades, Hillsboro Beach,Boca Raton, Boynton Beach and Jupiter. Officials would not try to screen off beaches, which are much harder to protect but easier to clean up.¶ "We're telling people not to expect a cocoon around the coast of Florida, because it's not practical. And with the fast currents we have here, booms all along the beaches really wouldn't be that effective," said Capt. John Slaughter, chief of readiness at the Coast Guard's 7th district in South Florida.¶ "Our priority is going to be to protect the inlets," he said. "The beaches are incredibly important to us, but inlets are what allow water to get into inland areas where the most sensitive environmental areas are."¶ The Coast Guard plan focuses on protecting bays, mangrove forests and lagoons – rich spawning grounds, where oil would cause great damage and be very difficult to remove. Local officials generally support the plan but say they can only hope to minimize damage if a slick arrives.¶ "We've looked at their [Coast Guard] response capabilities, which honestly are somewhat limited," Myers said. "The main thing they have the ability to do is to boom certain areas and try to deal with floating near-surface oil. Anything that's down deeper than that, nobody seems to have a way to manage that much volume of water."¶ "I would hate to see our beaches covered with tar balls or oil," he said. "We know that if that were to occur it would be a real mess for our whole tourism and recreation interest."¶ Plans include rounding up hundreds of volunteers to clean up beaches if they are slathered. Both counties are updating computer lists of those who offered to help when the Gulf spill raised fears that a slick would ride the Loop Current through the Florida Keys and up the southeast coast.¶ In fact, oil streamers were headed for the Keys but were shut off by eddies, smaller cross-currents.¶ "We got lucky that time," said Dan Bates, deputy director of the Department of Environmental Resources Management in Palm Beach County. "Deepwater Horizon was a wake-up call for many folks who didn't realize that what may happen a long distance away could have dramatic effect locally."¶ "If it happens during sea-turtle nesting season, that's a huge potential impact," he said. "That's an endangered species, and we're one of the primary nesting habitats in the world. In shore, we have all the nursery habitats we've worked very hard to enhance. Many tens of millions of dollars have been spent on that habitat, and we certainly want to protect that investment." Cuban drilling plans raised new alarms because the sites are much closer to Florida and very near the Gulf Stream. Frosty relations between the United States and Cuba have complicated contingency plans. Repsol, a Spanish company that has contracted with Cuba, has been using a new self-propelled rig called the Scarabeo 9 to search for oil since January. The company hopes to tap a reservoir before turning the rig over to a Malaysian company, Petronas, to dig exploratory wells in Cuban waters farther west, probably in late May or June. The exact location has not been disclosed.¶ Repsol has been delayed by minor equipment problems on the new rig and has not hit the expected reservoir, said Jorge Pinon, a former oil executive and energy expert at the University of Texas, who is familiar with the drilling operation. The Petronas site, he said, is farther from Florida but closer to currents that flow toward the state.¶ ¶ "If you move that prospect further west, a greater area could be impacted, including Florida Bay and the Florida Keys," he said.¶ To coordinate emergency-response plans in the Caribbean, U.S. officials met in Jamaica last week with energy experts from Cuba and Mexico, as well as from the Bahamas and Jamaica, which are considering offshore drilling. Slaughter, who attended the meetings, was hopeful that Cuba would allow a multi-national response in case of disaster.¶ "I certainly can't speak for Cuba," Slaughter said, "but I would say they understand that a spill of Deepwater Horizon magnitude is beyond one country's ability to address."¶ "I think Deepwater Horizon really opened everybody's eyes to the magnitude of the challenges," he said. "We have to set a lot of things aside to make sure the response is done to protect everybody's interests. Based on the vibes I've gotten from the meetings, everybody feels that same way."
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Kozloff 10 (Nikolas , writer for the Huffington Post and PhD in Latin American History from Oxford, , “Left Must Fine Tune its Position on Cuba Embargo in Light of Oil Spill,” Monga Bay, May 26, Online: http://news.mongabay.com/2010/0526-kozloff_cuba.html) From an environmental point of view, the prospect of offshore oil development going forward is not something to be taken lightly. Cuba is the most biologically diverse of all Caribbean islands and sports spectacular white sand beaches, vast coral reefs, and a wide range of fish populations. Cuba’s coastline and mangroves serve as breeding grounds for hundreds of species of fish as well as other marine organisms. Ocean currents carry important fish larvae from Cuba into U.S. waters, which in turn help to replenish ailing American fisheries. The U.S. and Cuba share an ancient deepwater coral system stretching all the way up to North Carolina. In addition, Cuba has more than 4,000 islets which support important reef fish such as grouper. The islets also support sea turtles, dolphins and manatees [the latter already in danger as a result of BP’s oil spill as I recently pointed out]. Crucially important, the islets serve as refuges for endangered species
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Two years after the Deepwater Horizon disaster underscored the damage to marine life and tourism of a massive oil spill, Cuban-sponsored drilling less than 60 miles from Florida has raised new alarms. the Coast Guard has devised an elaborate plan to contain the damage if an oil slick they are not so confident that their beaches, reefs and bays -- and the tourism dollars they generate -- can be fully protected. "If we do have a large spill, It will go to the beaches. "We know that if that were to occur it would be a real mess for tourism We got lucky that time," If it happens during sea-turtle nesting season, that's a huge potential impact," That's an endangered species, and we're one of the primary nesting habitats in the world. In shore, we have all the nursery habitats we've worked very hard to enhance. Many tens of millions of dollars have been spent on that habitat, and we certainly want to protect that investment."
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Oil drilling in Cuba would devastate biodiversity.
| 6,481 | 51 | 935 | 1,059 | 7 | 166 | 0.00661 | 0.156752 |
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Lovgren 6(Stefan winner of the American Association for the Advancement of Science Journalism Award, “Castro the Conservationist? By Default or Design, Cuba Largely Pristine,” National Geographic, August 4, Online: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/08/060804-castro-legacy.html) So what will happen if Castro's regime falls and a new, democratic government takes root? Conservationists and others say they are worried that the pressure to develop the island will increase and Cuba's rich biodiversity will suffer. Barborak said he is concerned that "environmental carpetbaggers and scalawags will come out of the woodwork in Cuba if there is turbulent regime change. "One could foresee a flood of extractive industries jockeying for access to mineral and oil leases," he said. "A huge wave of extraction of unique and endemic plants and animals could occur to feed the international wildlife market. And a speculative tourism and real estate boom could turn much of the coastline into a tacky wasteland in short order." "If foreign investments take a much firmer hold, more hotels will be built and more people will descend on the reefs," added Gebelein, the Florida International University professor. "If the Cuban government does not have a swift policy framework to deal with the huge influx of tourists, investors, and foreign government interests, a new exploitative paradigm will be the beginning of the end for some of the last pristine territories in the Caribbean."
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Gibson 2012 (William E. Gibson, Washington Bureau sun-sentinel Drilling off Cuba prompts disaster plan¶ Officials stress inlets, not beaches¶ April 15, 2012 (http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-04-15/news/fl-cuba-oil-drilling-local-spill-plan-20120415_1_inlets-and-intracoastal-waterways-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill/2) WASHINGTON -- U.S. officials, game-planning for a potential oil spill off the shores of Cuba, are preparing to leave South Florida's beaches exposed while shielding inlets and intracoastal waterways to protect the most vulnerable parts of the state's coastline.¶ ¶ Two years after the Deepwater Horizon disaster underscored the damage to marine life and tourism of a massive oil spill, Cuban-sponsored drilling less than 60 miles from Florida has raised new alarms. In response, the Coast Guard has devised an elaborate plan to contain the damage if an oil slick rushes north on the Gulf Stream, the powerful current that runs along the East Coast.¶ Broward and Palm Beach county officials feel better prepared because of lessons from the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, which erupted on April 20, 2010. But they are not so confident that their beaches, reefs and bays -- and the tourism dollars they generate -- can be fully protected.¶ "If we do have a large spill, I'm not sure we have the capability of intercepting all of it," said Eric Myers,Broward County's natural resources administrator. "It will go to the beaches. And quite honestly, I think that most of the plans assume that a lot of oil can be collected from the beaches, which is what they did in the upper Gulf Coast."¶ U.S. officials are increasingly confident that Cuban authorities would allow Americans to enter Cuban waters to help contain a major spill at its source. They plan to skim oil from the ocean surface, contain it, burn it or disperse it with chemicals before it comes near land.¶ But if a slick heads for South Florida, the Coast Guard plan calls for a series of booms to block surface oil from entering inlets and intracoastal waterways, especially near Port Everglades, Hillsboro Beach,Boca Raton, Boynton Beach and Jupiter. Officials would not try to screen off beaches, which are much harder to protect but easier to clean up.¶ "We're telling people not to expect a cocoon around the coast of Florida, because it's not practical. And with the fast currents we have here, booms all along the beaches really wouldn't be that effective," said Capt. John Slaughter, chief of readiness at the Coast Guard's 7th district in South Florida.¶ "Our priority is going to be to protect the inlets," he said. "The beaches are incredibly important to us, but inlets are what allow water to get into inland areas where the most sensitive environmental areas are."¶ The Coast Guard plan focuses on protecting bays, mangrove forests and lagoons – rich spawning grounds, where oil would cause great damage and be very difficult to remove. Local officials generally support the plan but say they can only hope to minimize damage if a slick arrives.¶ "We've looked at their [Coast Guard] response capabilities, which honestly are somewhat limited," Myers said. "The main thing they have the ability to do is to boom certain areas and try to deal with floating near-surface oil. Anything that's down deeper than that, nobody seems to have a way to manage that much volume of water."¶ "I would hate to see our beaches covered with tar balls or oil," he said. "We know that if that were to occur it would be a real mess for our whole tourism and recreation interest."¶ Plans include rounding up hundreds of volunteers to clean up beaches if they are slathered. Both counties are updating computer lists of those who offered to help when the Gulf spill raised fears that a slick would ride the Loop Current through the Florida Keys and up the southeast coast.¶ In fact, oil streamers were headed for the Keys but were shut off by eddies, smaller cross-currents.¶ "We got lucky that time," said Dan Bates, deputy director of the Department of Environmental Resources Management in Palm Beach County. "Deepwater Horizon was a wake-up call for many folks who didn't realize that what may happen a long distance away could have dramatic effect locally."¶ "If it happens during sea-turtle nesting season, that's a huge potential impact," he said. "That's an endangered species, and we're one of the primary nesting habitats in the world. In shore, we have all the nursery habitats we've worked very hard to enhance. Many tens of millions of dollars have been spent on that habitat, and we certainly want to protect that investment." Cuban drilling plans raised new alarms because the sites are much closer to Florida and very near the Gulf Stream. Frosty relations between the United States and Cuba have complicated contingency plans. Repsol, a Spanish company that has contracted with Cuba, has been using a new self-propelled rig called the Scarabeo 9 to search for oil since January. The company hopes to tap a reservoir before turning the rig over to a Malaysian company, Petronas, to dig exploratory wells in Cuban waters farther west, probably in late May or June. The exact location has not been disclosed.¶ Repsol has been delayed by minor equipment problems on the new rig and has not hit the expected reservoir, said Jorge Pinon, a former oil executive and energy expert at the University of Texas, who is familiar with the drilling operation. The Petronas site, he said, is farther from Florida but closer to currents that flow toward the state.¶ ¶ "If you move that prospect further west, a greater area could be impacted, including Florida Bay and the Florida Keys," he said.¶ To coordinate emergency-response plans in the Caribbean, U.S. officials met in Jamaica last week with energy experts from Cuba and Mexico, as well as from the Bahamas and Jamaica, which are considering offshore drilling. Slaughter, who attended the meetings, was hopeful that Cuba would allow a multi-national response in case of disaster.¶ "I certainly can't speak for Cuba," Slaughter said, "but I would say they understand that a spill of Deepwater Horizon magnitude is beyond one country's ability to address."¶ "I think Deepwater Horizon really opened everybody's eyes to the magnitude of the challenges," he said. "We have to set a lot of things aside to make sure the response is done to protect everybody's interests. Based on the vibes I've gotten from the meetings, everybody feels that same way."
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So what will happen if Castro's regime falls the pressure to develop the island will increase and Cuba's rich biodiversity will suffer. environmental carpetbaggers and scalawags will come out of the woodwork in Cuba if there is turbulent regime change One could foresee a flood of extractive industries jockeying for access to mineral and oil leases," "A huge wave of extraction of unique and endemic plants and animals could occur to feed the international wildlife market. And a speculative tourism and real estate boom could turn much of the coastline into a tacky wasteland in short order." If foreign investments take a much firmer hold, more hotels will be built and more people will descend on the reefs a new exploitative paradigm will be the beginning of the end for some of the last pristine territories in the Caribbean
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Oil spills would damage beaches and key turtle habitats – Deep water Horizon was just likely timing
| 1,486 | 99 | 830 | 223 | 17 | 139 | 0.076233 | 0.623318 |
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Newswise 12 [Nova Southeastern University 1/30/2012 Long-Term Response Plan for Cuban Oil Spill (http://www.newswise.com/articles/long-term-response-plan-for-cuban-oil-spill)] Newswise — FT. LAUDERDALE-DAVIE Fla. — Nova Southeastern University (NSU) and Florida International University (FIU) researchers have drafted a plan to best prepare South Florida for an oil spill off the coast of Cuba.¶ The proximity of intended Cuban oil drilling and production puts the U.S. coastal zone at risk from Florida to the Carolinas and northward. Oil from a spill would quickly enter the Gulf Stream and reach Florida's shores in hours or days with potentially devastating effects on the densely populated South Florida coastline and its coastal ecosystems. South Florida's accounts for 3.4 million jobs and 45 percent of the $587 billion contribution to Florida's GDP generated by coastal and ocean economic activity.¶ A likely first impact of a major spill would be the iconic and economically valuable Florida Reef Track, a coral reef ecosystem that stretches from the Dry Torgugas in the Keys to Palm Beach County. Effects could be devastating to the ecology of the reef, Florida's beaches, coastal property and South Florida’s economy.¶ The sustainability plan calls for a partnership between the U.S. Coast Guard, other federal agencies, and a consortium of South Florida academic institutions, including Nova Southeastern University’s Oceanographic Center, Florida International University, other schools, and private industry. The Coast Guard is the designated operational leader in any response to a Cuban oil spill.¶
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Lovgren 6(Stefan winner of the American Association for the Advancement of Science Journalism Award, “Castro the Conservationist? By Default or Design, Cuba Largely Pristine,” National Geographic, August 4, Online: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/08/060804-castro-legacy.html) So what will happen if Castro's regime falls and a new, democratic government takes root? Conservationists and others say they are worried that the pressure to develop the island will increase and Cuba's rich biodiversity will suffer. Barborak said he is concerned that "environmental carpetbaggers and scalawags will come out of the woodwork in Cuba if there is turbulent regime change. "One could foresee a flood of extractive industries jockeying for access to mineral and oil leases," he said. "A huge wave of extraction of unique and endemic plants and animals could occur to feed the international wildlife market. And a speculative tourism and real estate boom could turn much of the coastline into a tacky wasteland in short order." "If foreign investments take a much firmer hold, more hotels will be built and more people will descend on the reefs," added Gebelein, the Florida International University professor. "If the Cuban government does not have a swift policy framework to deal with the huge influx of tourists, investors, and foreign government interests, a new exploitative paradigm will be the beginning of the end for some of the last pristine territories in the Caribbean."
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Oil from a spill would quickly enter the Gulf Stream and reach Florida's shores in hours or days with potentially devastating effects on the densely populated South Florida coastline and its coastal ecosystems. South Florida's accounts for 3.4 million jobs and 45 percent of the $587 billion contribution to Florida's GDP generated by coastal and ocean economic activity. A likely first impact of a major spill would be the iconic and economically valuable Florida Reef Track, a coral reef ecosystem that stretches from the Dry Torgugas in the Keys to Palm Beach County. Effects could be devastating to the ecology of the reef, Florida's beaches, coastal property and South Florida’s economy.
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Lifting the embargo would turn Cuba into a target for tourists and business exploitation – this would destroy its environment.
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Weber and Crew 2K (J. M. Weber University of Kaiserslautern, Germany and R. E. Crew, Jr Deterrence theory and marine oil¶ spills: Do coast guard civil penalties¶ deter pollution?¶ J. M., Jr Journal of Environmental Management (2000) (http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0301479799903262/1-s2.0-S0301479799903262-main.pdf?_tid=22c20598-ddd9-11e2-afcb-00000aab0f26&acdnat=1372193723_e832ee536908d9fa2114f5c01a283d79)]Oil pollution continues to play a prominent role in degradation of the marine environment, both in the United States and elsewhere. Catastrophic oil spills such as the 11 million gallon discharge by the tankship Exxon Valdez in 1989 (ARLIS,¶ ¶ 1997a) have immediate environmental consequences. While there is no conclusive estimate of the impact of this spill on marine life, popular and scientific research suggests an enormous loss. In addition to the immediate closing of the Alaskan commercial salmon fisheries, an estimated 300 harbor seals, 2800 sea otters, 250 000 seabirds and possibly 13 killer whales were lost (ARLIS, 1997b). Other major oil spills have taken somewhat similar tolls on the environment. (National¶ ¶ Research Council (NRC), 1985) As devastating as these one-time events are, however, they should not divert attention from the routine oil spills that strike the environment every day. The long-term¶ ¶ impacts of such spills can have huge consequence for marine ecosystems. In 1985, the¶ ¶ US National Research Council estimated that¶ ¶ 73% of oil spilled in marine transportationcomes from sources other than tankships.¶ ¶ (NRC, 1985) This means that a substantial¶ ¶ volume of oil is spilled into the marine environment from sources that gather little public¶ ¶ or media attention. While society can and¶ ¶ should expend effort to prevent the Exxon¶ ¶ Valdez-type oil spills, it should be just as¶ ¶ vigilant in reducing the chronic pollution of¶ ¶ smaller vessels and land-based facilities.¶ ¶ The US government has long been engaged in efforts to prevent oil spills.
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Newswise 12 [Nova Southeastern University 1/30/2012 Long-Term Response Plan for Cuban Oil Spill (http://www.newswise.com/articles/long-term-response-plan-for-cuban-oil-spill)] Newswise — FT. LAUDERDALE-DAVIE Fla. — Nova Southeastern University (NSU) and Florida International University (FIU) researchers have drafted a plan to best prepare South Florida for an oil spill off the coast of Cuba.¶ The proximity of intended Cuban oil drilling and production puts the U.S. coastal zone at risk from Florida to the Carolinas and northward. Oil from a spill would quickly enter the Gulf Stream and reach Florida's shores in hours or days with potentially devastating effects on the densely populated South Florida coastline and its coastal ecosystems. South Florida's accounts for 3.4 million jobs and 45 percent of the $587 billion contribution to Florida's GDP generated by coastal and ocean economic activity.¶ A likely first impact of a major spill would be the iconic and economically valuable Florida Reef Track, a coral reef ecosystem that stretches from the Dry Torgugas in the Keys to Palm Beach County. Effects could be devastating to the ecology of the reef, Florida's beaches, coastal property and South Florida’s economy.¶ The sustainability plan calls for a partnership between the U.S. Coast Guard, other federal agencies, and a consortium of South Florida academic institutions, including Nova Southeastern University’s Oceanographic Center, Florida International University, other schools, and private industry. The Coast Guard is the designated operational leader in any response to a Cuban oil spill.¶
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Oil pollution continues to play a prominent role in degradation of the marine environment, both in the United States and elsewhere. Catastrophic oil spills such as the 11 million gallon discharge by the tankship Exxon Valdez in 1989 have immediate environmental consequences. While there is no conclusive estimate of the impact of this spill on marine life, popular and scientific research suggests an enormous loss. major oil spills have taken somewhat similar tolls on the environment As devastating as these one-time events are, however, they should not divert attention from the routine oil spills that strike the environment every day impacts of such spills can have huge consequence for marine ecosystems The US government has long been engaged in efforts to prevent oil spills.
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Oil spill would devastate Florida’s economy and key coral reefs.
| 1,996 | 64 | 783 | 293 | 10 | 124 | 0.03413 | 0.423208 |
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Regina Flores, “Free Trade, Corn, and the Environment: Environmental Impacts of US – Mexico Corn Trade Under NAFTA”, June 2003, http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/pubs/wp/03-06-naftacorn.pdf)> BC The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) had a profound impact on corn trade between the United States and Mexico. Negotiated tariff reductions and the Mexican government’s decision not to charge some tariffs to which it was entitled resulted in a doubling of US corn exports to Mexico. This paper examines the environmental implications of this change on both sides of the border. For the US, increased exports to Mexico due to trade liberalization represent one percent of total US production and should therefore be considered responsible for one percent of the environmental impacts of corn production. These are considerable, including: high chemical use; water pollution due to runoff; unsustainable water use for irrigation; the expansion of genetically modified corn; soil erosion; and biodiversity loss. Trends in these areas are presented. For Mexico, the principal potential environmental impact of the loss of a significant share of its domestic corn market to the US is the threat to agro-biodiversity. Preliminary evidence is presented on the extent to which imports and declining prices are reducing the production of native corn varieties. The authors conclude that shifting corn trade under NAFTA is having significant negative environmental effects on both sides of the border and could have even more profound impacts in the future if it results in the loss of significant agro-biodiversity in Mexico.
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Ackerman et. al. 3 (Frank Ackerman, Timothy A. Wise, Kevin P. Gallagher, Luke Ney, and
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increased exports to Mexico due to trade liberalization should therefore be considered responsible for the environmental impacts of corn production These are considerable including high chemical use; water pollution due to runoff unsustainable water use for irrigation expansion of genetically modified corn soil erosion; and biodiversity loss For Mexico shifting corn trade under NAFTA is having significant negative environmental effects on both sides of the border and have profound impacts
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NAFTA catalyzed BioD loss
| 1,614 | 25 | 493 | 243 | 4 | 70 | 0.016461 | 0.288066 |
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Along the rivers of the area, bubbles are released. If it was not for technicians and spokesmen from Petróleos de Venezuela company, who have approached the place to warn that such water cannot be used for consumption; any stranger may confuse it with thermal water.The phenomenon, anyway, is not older than 10 years. Rafael Maita, a native leader, remembers that particular smells and bubbles in the water were the first warnings that something wrong was going on in Tascabaña and other settlements in Eastern Anzoátegui.The first charges were made in the local press in 2005; later, they were supported by non-governmental organizations such as Provea (The Venezuelan Program of Education-Action in Human Rights) and, in 2008, when complications arouse at homes and crops of the communities; their complains echoed in Caracas. Congress deputies, the Ombudsman's Office and other state agencies would acknowledge that gas is released from oil wells thought to have been closed in Anzoátegui area.The very Attorney General Office - which these days demands proofs from the media before speaking of pollution- admitted four years ago that the waters of the zone are altered. By means of an analysis -whose details are unknown- it pointed to damages to the population.On behalf of the Indigenous Organization Taguala, Rafael Maita and other neighbors require that such and any other studies which may reveal the situation they are going through are brought out. "People are quite afraid to denounce," he regrets. "Additionally, people in here let go the idea of having water well; they are getting used to drinking water supplied by water tankers instead."Salt waterAccording to the Environmental Perspectives in Venezuela that the Ministry of Environment submitted in 2010 to the United Nations Program for Environment; the aquifers of Mesa de Guanipa represent one of the four most potent underground water reservoirs in the country.That explains why the most fatalist voices exclaim that there is a methane gas bomb in one of the most productive aquifers. This is not about putting Petróleos de Venezuela in a tight corner. It is clear that Anzoátegui and the whole country are supported by its oil production; however, Tascabaña residents need to find a solution to their problem.Sociologist Rafael Uzcátegui, from non-governmental organization Provea, believes that besides giving responses to the affected communities; it is time to reopen the debate that environmental activists triggered in the 90's, concerning the consequences provoked by means of production based on mineral and hydrocarbon extraction.By the same token, Rafael Maita adds from the very indigenous towns of Freites Municipality, that residents are not asking for the removal of either drilling rigs or pipes which have been installed along their houses. What he means is that the people want to know more about their environmental and sanitary conditions; as well as be granted again access easement which the oil holding company had always negotiated when occupying their lands."In 2004, the rights of way of Tascabaña, Bajo Hondo and Kashama communities expired, and now that we decide to protest, they put the National Guard in," he denounces. "Pdvsa does not give any responses; it tells us that lands need to be delimited but we have the title deeds of these lands since 1783."There is no longer yucca or chili pepper or any other crops, such as plantain bordering Tascabaña River. The few local residents willing to talk about the issue, display a wide range of problems: from consequences to their farming activities to legends about heads of cattle dead as a result of the oil spills.The raindrops that fall onto the place even turn into bubbles when getting in contact with the ground. That is -after all- a sign that in Freites Municipality something is wrong. Only a few local residents have given their opinion on the case. There is fear, some assert. "At that eastern zone, Pdvsa has the real power," explains Rafael Uzcátegui, a leader of Provea, from Caracas.An oil spill on Tascabaña River brought the matter to light again last February. The Bolivarian National Guard restricted the access to this zone and, under such circumstances, the only neighbors who would open their doors to the press did it,preferring not to be identified by name. They are certainly concerned and want to know what is really going on in their rivers; additionally, they fear to lose the support, missions and construction projects that Pdvsa has funded them."Kari'ña members of the past lacked training; they had no access to Internet or high schools, but they were certainly more warlike," adds Maita on behalf of the Indigenous Organization Taguala. "We have now become politicized and therefore we do not fight for what is ours."
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El Universal 12 (El Universal is a major Venezuelan newspaper, headquartered in Caracas with an average daily circulation of about 150,000. The online version carries news, politics, sports, economy and more."Pdvsa is not responsive", April 7, 2012, http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/120407/pdvsa-is-not-responsive) BCSomehwere in Anzoátegui state residents wonder why they have to fill their water tanks with water tankers due to state-run oil holding Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa) fault. Now that the issues of drinking water and the environmental damages caused by oil holding industry PDVSA elsewhere in the country are in vogue; the members of indigenous communities around Mesa de Guanipa remember that a gas leak made them lose their right to receive water service through pipes.
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Along rivers , bubbles are released any stranger may confuse it with thermal water. the aquifers of Mesa de Guanipa represent one of the four most potent underground water reservoirs in the country. ; it is time to reopen the debate environmental activists triggered in the 90's concerning the consequences of production based on mineral and hydrocarbon extraction people want to know more about their environmental and sanitary conditions An oil spill on Tascabaña River brought the matter to light again last February The National Guard restricted the access to this zone They are certainly concerned and want to know what is really going on in their rivers; additionally, they fear to lose the support, missions and construction projects that Pdvsa has funded them.
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Petro-Venezuela frequently has Environmental mishaps
| 4,801 | 52 | 768 | 774 | 5 | 124 | 0.00646 | 0.160207 |
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Venezuela is among the ten countries with the highest biodiversity in the world, both in the terrestrial and the marine environment. Due to its biogeographical position, Venezuelan marine flora and fauna are composed of species from very different marine bioregions such as the Caribbean and the Orinoco Delta. The ecosystems in the Caribbean have received considerable attention but now, due to the tremendous impact of human activities such as tourism, over-exploitation of marine resources, physical alteration, the oil industry, and pollution, these environments are under great risk and their biodiversity highly threatened. The most representative ecosystems of this region include sandy beaches, rocky shores, seagrass beds, coral reefs, soft bottom communities, and mangrove forests. The Orinoco Delta is a complex group of freshwater, estuarine, and marine ecosystems; the habitats are very diverse but poorly known. This paper summarizes the known, which is all of the information available in Venezuela about research into biodiversity, the different ecosystems and the knowledge that has become available in different types of publications, biological collections, the importance and extents of the Protected Areas as biodiversity reserves, and the legal institutional framework aimed at their protection and sustainable use. As the unknown, research priorities are proposed: a complete survey of the area, the completion of a species list, and an assessment of the health status of the main ecosystems on a broad national scale. This new information must be integrated and summarized in nationwide Geographic Information Systems (GIS) databases, accessible to the scientific community as well as to the management agencies. In the long term, a genetic inventory must be included in order to provide more detailed knowledge of the biological resources. Future projects at the local (Venezuela), regional (Southern Caribbean: Colombia, Venezuela, and the Netherlands Antilles), and global (South America) scales are recommended.
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Miloslavich et. al. 3 (Patricia Miloslavich, Eduardo Klein, Edgard Yerena and Alberto Martin, Jounrnalists at the Department of Environmental Studies, Universidad Simon Bolivar, Caracas, Venezuela and The Institute of Marine Science and Technology (INTECMAR), “MARINE BIODIVERSITY IN VENEZUELA: STATUS AND PERSPECTIVES”,http://www.scielo.cl/pdf/gayana/v67n2/Miloslavich%202.pdf, MS )
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Venezuela is among the ten countries with the highest biodiversity in the world, both in the terrestrial and the marine environment. Due to its biogeographical position, Venezuelan marine flora and fauna are composed of species from very different marine bioregions due to the tremendous impact of human activities such as tourism, over-exploitation of marine resources, physical alteration, the oil industry, and pollution, these environments are under great risk and their biodiversity highly threatened
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High Venezuelan Biodiversity threatened by Human activity
| 2,039 | 57 | 505 | 298 | 7 | 73 | 0.02349 | 0.244966 |
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Tschakert et. al. 12 (Dr. Tschakert received a PhD in arid lands resources science from the University of Arizona and a mag. Phil in geography and economic from Karl-Franzens University, “Human Extinction”, https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog030/node/398) Earlier in this module, we used the house of cards (or Jenga) metaphor for ecosystem resilience. As more species go extinct, it becomes more likely for ecosystems to collapse. Given how many species are endangered, it is difficult to put an upper limit on how severe the ecosystem collapses could be. The collapses could be so severe that human extinction is threatened. The current honey bee colony collapse situation illustrates this. Without honey bees, humans would struggle - and perhaps fail - to grow many important crops. As more biodiversity is lost, we may find ourselves learning the hard way how important it is to our civilization and indeed our very survival.
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McCarthy 11(Michael McCarthy , award winning environmental journalist & editor, “Oceans on the brink of catastrophe,” The Independent, June 21, Online: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/oceans-on-brink-of-catastrophe-2300272.html) The world's oceans are faced with an unprecedented loss of species comparable to the great mass extinctions of prehistory, a major report suggests today. The seas are degenerating far faster than anyone has predicted, the report says, because of the cumulative impact of a number of severe individual stresses, ranging from climate warming and sea-water acidification, to widespread chemical pollution and gross overfishing.¶ The coming together of these factors is now threatening the marine environment with a catastrophe "unprecedented in human history", according to the report, from a panel of leading marine scientists brought together in Oxford earlier this year by the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO) and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).¶ The stark suggestion made by the panel is that the potential extinction of species, from large fish at one end of the scale to tiny corals at the other, is directly comparable to the five great mass extinctions in the geological record, during each of which much of the world's life died out. They range from the Ordovician-Silurian "event" of 450 million years ago, to the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction of 65 million years ago, which is believed to have wiped out the dinosaurs. The worst of them, the event at the end of the Permian period, 251 million years ago, is thought to have eliminated 70 per cent of species on land and 96 per cent of all species in the sea.¶ The panel of 27 scientists, who considered the latest research from all areas of marine science, concluded that a "combination of stressors is creating the conditions associated with every previous major extinction of species in Earth's history". They also concluded the speed and rate of degeneration of the oceans is far faster than anyone has predicted; ¶ * Many of the negative impacts identified are greater than the worst predictions; ¶ * the first steps to globally significant extinction may have already begun.
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As more species go extinct, it becomes more likely for ecosystems to collapse. The collapses could be so severe that human extinction is threatened. The current honey bee colony collapse situation illustrates this. Without honey bees, humans would struggle - and perhaps fail - to grow many important crops. As more biodiversity is lost, we may find ourselves learning the hard way how important it is to our civilization and indeed our very survival.
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Ocean biodiversity loss will result in a domino effect resulting in extinction.
| 930 | 80 | 451 | 145 | 12 | 74 | 0.082759 | 0.510345 |
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Biodiversity is so indispensable for human survival that the United Nations General Assembly has designated the decade 2011- 2020 as the ‘Biodiversity Decade’ with the chief objective of enabling humans to live peaceably or harmoniously with nature and its biodiversity. We should be happy that during October 1-19, 2012, XI Conference of Parties (CoP-11), a global mega event on biodiversity, is taking place in Hyderabad, when delegates from 193 party countries are expected to meet. They will review the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which was originally introduced at the Earth Summit or the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) is the nodal agency for CoP-11. Today, India is one of the 17 mega-diverse (richest biodiversity) countries. Biodiversity provides all basic needs for our healthy survival — oxygen, food, medicines, fiber, fuel, energy, fertilizers, fodder and waste-disposal, etc. Fast vanishing honeybees, dragonflies, bats, frogs, house sparrows, filter (suspension)-feeder oysters and all keystone species are causing great economic loss as well as posing an imminent threat to human peace and survival. The three-fold biodiversity mission before us is to inventories the existing biodiversity, conserve it, and, above all, equitably share the sustainable benefits out of it.
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Raj 12 (Dr. P.J. Sanjeeva Raj, consultant ecologist and the Professor and Head of the Zoology Department of the Madras Christian College (MCC), “Beware the loss of biodiversity”, September 23, 2012, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/open-page/beware-the-loss-of-biodiversity/article3927062.ece) Professor Edward O. Wilson, Harvard visionary of biodiversity, observes that the current rate of biodiversity loss is perhaps the highest since the loss of dinosaurs about 65 million years ago during the Mesozoic era, when humans had not appeared. He regrets that if such indiscriminate annihilation of all biodiversity from the face of the earth happens for anthropogenic reasons, as has been seen now, it is sure to force humanity into an emotional shock and trauma of loneliness and helplessness on this planet. He believes that the current wave of biodiversity loss is sure to lead us into an age that may be appropriately called the “Eremozoic Era, the Age of Loneliness.” Loss of biodiversity is a much greater threat to human survival than even climate change. Both could act, synergistically too, to escalate human extinction faster.
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Biodiversity is so indispensable for human survival that the United Nations General Assembly has designated the decade 2011- 2020 as the ‘Biodiversity Decade’ with the chief objective of enabling humans to live peaceably or harmoniously with nature and its biodiversity. Biodiversity provides all basic needs for our healthy survival — oxygen, food, medicines, fiber, fuel, energy, fertilizers, fodder and waste-disposal, etc. Fast vanishing honeybees, dragonflies, bats, frogs, house sparrows, filter (suspension)-feeder oysters and all keystone species are causing great economic loss as well as posing an imminent threat to human peace and survival.
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Biodiversity poses an imminent threat to human survival
| 1,409 | 55 | 652 | 210 | 8 | 93 | 0.038095 | 0.442857 |
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UN officials gathered at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in Japan have issued a global warning that the rapid loss of animal and plant species that has characterized the past century must end if humans are to survive. Delegates in Nagoya plan to set a new target for 2020 for curbing species loss, and will discuss boosting medium-term financial help for poor countries to help them protect their wildlife and habitats (Yahoo Green). “Business as usual is no more an option for mankind,” CBD executive secretary Ahmed Djoghlaf said in his opening statements. “We need a new approach, we need to reconnect with nature and live in harmony with nature into the future.” The CBD is an international legally-binding treaty with three main goals: conservation of biodiversity; sustainable use of biodiversity; fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising from the use of genetic resources. Its overall objective is to encourage actions which will lead to a sustainable future. As Djoghlaf acknowledged in his opening statements, facing the fact that many countries have ignored their obligation to these goals is imperative if progress is to be made in the future. “Let us have the courage to look in the eyes of our children and admit that we have failed, individually and collectively, to fulfill the Johannesburg promise made to them by the 110 Heads of State and Government to substantially reduce the loss of biodiversity by 2010,” Djoghlaf stated. “Let us look in the eyes of our children and admit that we continue to lose biodiversity at an unprecedented rate, thus mortgaging their future. “Earlier this year, the U.N. warned several eco-systems including the Amazon rainforest, freshwater lakes and rivers and coral reefs are approaching a “tipping point” which, if reached, may see them never recover. According to a study by UC Berkeley and Penn State University researchers, between 15 and 42 percent of the mammals in North America disappeared after humans arrived. Compared to extinction rates demonstrated in other periods of Earth’s history, this means that North American species are already half way to a sixth mass extinction, similar to the one that eliminated the dinosaurs. The same is true in many other parts of the world. The third edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook demonstrates that, today, the rate of loss of biodiversity is up to one thousand times higher than the background and historical rate of extinction. The Earth’s 6.8 billion humans are effectively living 50 percent beyond the planet’s bio capacity in 2007; according to a new assessment by the World Wildlife Fund that said by 2030 humans will effectively need the capacity of two Earths in order to survive
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Buczynski 10 (Beth Buczynski is the author of Sharing is Good (Fall 2013, New Society Publishers), a practical guide to collaborative consumption that includes hundreds of tips and resources to help you participate in the growing sharing economy. She received a BA in creative writing from the University of Tennessee and a MS in public communication and technology from Colorado State University, “UN: Loss Of Biodiversity Could Mean End Of Human Race”, http://www.care2.com/causes/un-humans-are-rapidly-destroying-the-biodiversity-ne.html#ixzz2ZXlGvUz0)
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UN officials gathered at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in Japan have issued a global warning that the rapid loss of animal and plant species that has characterized the past century must end if humans are to survive. “Earlier this year, the U.N. warned several eco-systems including the Amazon rainforest, freshwater lakes and rivers and coral reefs are approaching a “tipping point” which, if reached, may see them never recover. According to a study by UC Berkeley and Penn State University researchers, between 15 and 42 percent of the mammals in North America disappeared after humans arrived. Compared to extinction rates demonstrated in other periods of Earth’s history, this means that North American species are already half way to a sixth mass extinction, similar to the one that eliminated the dinosaurs. today, the rate of loss of biodiversity is up to one thousand times higher than the background and historical rate of extinction. The Earth’s 6.8 billion humans are effectively living 50 percent beyond the planet’s bio capacity in 2007; according to a new assessment by the World Wildlife Fund that said by 2030 humans will effectively need the capacity of two Earths in order to survive
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Loss of biodiversity has the capacity to cause human extinction
| 2,722 | 63 | 1,218 | 445 | 10 | 198 | 0.022472 | 0.444944 |
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Weidema No date (Bo P.Weidema., M.Sc. in horticulture from the Royal Agricultural University of Copenhagen, “Can resource depletion be omitted from environmental impact assessments? http://www.lca-net.com/files/resources-postertext.pdf, MS) Present rate of extinction of species is estimated upwards from 1000 species per year (out of an¶ estimated total of 14*109 species). It is generally agreed that the reduction in biodiversity is caused¶ by over-exploitation of specific species (hunting and deliberate extermination), introduction of new¶ species, and habitat destruction.¶ As a protection area, biodiversity is affected not only by direct or indirect use of biological¶ resources (over-exploitation of specific species and physical habitat destruction) but also by many¶ environmental mechanisms, both those typically included in environmental assessments (global¶ warming, ozone depletion, acidification, eutrophication etc.) and such which are not so often¶ included (e.g. introduction of new species). In this presentation, I deal only with those effects that¶ are related to direct or indirect use of biological resources.¶ Over-exploitation of specific species, i.e. harvesting of species which are threatened with extinction,¶ may be recorded as a resource use in the inventory (e.g. expressed in terms of numbers of¶ individuals, weight or area exploited, allowing a later assessment of the size of the impact in¶ relation to the size of the remaining and/or viable population and the value assigned to the species¶ in question).¶ Physical habitat destruction may be recorded in the inventory in terms of both the area affected¶ (when a change in habitat quality is implied) and area*time (to cover the effects of the mere¶ occupation of an area). In the impact assessment, these inventory items may be weighted with¶ coefficients expressing the specific characteristics of the affected area in relation to the species¶ density relative to the average species density, the scarcity of areas where the specific ecosystem¶ can exist, and the scarcity of areas where the specific ecosystem actually exists. This concept is¶ further developed in Weidema & Lindeijer (2001).
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King et. al. 12 (Petra Tschakert, Assistant Professor of Geography; Karl Zimmerer, Professor and Department Head of Geography; Brian King, Assistant Professor of Geography; Seth Baum, Graduate Assistant and Ph.D. student in Geography and Chongming Wang, Teaching Assistant, Geography, “Human Extinction“,https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geog030/node/398, MS) Biodiversity loss. Earlier in this module, we used the house of cards (or Jenga) metaphor for ecosystem resilience. As more species go extinct, it becomes more likely for ecosystems to collapse. Given how many species are endangered, it is difficult to put an upper limit on how severe the ecosystem collapses could be. The collapses could be so severe that human extinction is threatened. The current honey bee colony collapse situation illustrates this. Without honey bees, humans would struggle - and perhaps fail - to grow many important crops. As more biodiversity is lost, we may find ourselves learning the hard way how important it is to our civilization and indeed our very survival.
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Present rate of extinction of species is estimated upwards from 1000 species per year It is generally agreed that the reduction in biodiversity is caused by over-exploitation of specific species , biodiversity is affected not only by direct or indirect use of biological resources but also by many environmental mechanisms, both those typically included in environmental assessments and such which are not so often included Over-exploitation of specific species, i.e. harvesting of species which are threatened with extinction, may be recorded as a resource use in the inventory Physical habitat destruction may be recorded in the inventory in terms of both the area affected ) and area*time In the impact assessment, these inventory items may be weighted with coefficients expressing the specific characteristics of the affected area in relation to the species density relative to the average species density, the scarcity of areas where the specific ecosystem can exist, and the scarcity of areas where the specific ecosystem actually exists
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Species loss can lead to extinction
| 2,194 | 35 | 1,053 | 318 | 6 | 160 | 0.018868 | 0.503145 |
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HAVANA TIMES — In 2000, with the aim of alerting humanity to the ¶ extinction of ecosystems, species and genes and the accelerated decline ¶ in biodiversity it was causing, the United Nations' General Assembly ¶ declared May 22 International Day for Biological Biodiversity. ¶ One may think that, ultimately, humanity does not need so many bugs ¶ around it to get by, that it is an aesthetic, or, at most, an ethical ¶ issue. Nothing could be further from the truth. ¶ In addition to all of the direct or indirect "services" these bugs ¶ offer, diversity is the stabilizer of the biosphere, its shield against ¶ disturbances and aggressions. Without it, we're toast. ¶ We are the species with the most sophisticated brain the earth has ever ¶ known and we behave like a lowly plague attacking a planet. We're a ¶ sorry sight indeed.
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Calzadilla 13 (Erasmo Calzadilla, the General Assembly of the United Nations, “Cuba and its Biodiversity”, May 24, 2013, http://humanrightsincuba.blogspot.com/2013/05/cuba-and-its-biodiversity.html, MS)
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the aim of alerting humanity to the ¶ extinction of ecosystems, species and genes and the accelerated decline ¶ in biodiversity it was causing diversity is the stabilizer of the biosphere, its shield against ¶ disturbances and aggressions. Without it, we're toast. ¶ We are the species with the most sophisticated brain the earth has ever ¶ known and we behave like a lowly plague attacking a planet. We're a ¶ sorry sight indeed.
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Biodiversity stabilizes Earth’s Ecosystems
| 832 | 42 | 430 | 147 | 4 | 74 | 0.027211 | 0.503401 |
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¶ Human health is affected by changes¶ in biodiversity and ecosystem services.¶ Changes to the environment have altered¶ disease patterns and human exposure¶ to disease outbreaks. In addition,¶ current patterns of farming, based on¶ high resource inputs (such as water and¶ fertilizers) and agricultural intensification,¶ are putting great strains on ecosystems,¶ contributing to nutritional imbalances and¶ reduced access to wild foods.¶ Human societies everywhere have¶ depended on biodiversity for cultural¶ identity, spirituality, inspiration, aesthetic¶ enjoyment and recreation. Culture can¶ also play a key role in the conservation¶ and sustainable use of biodiversity. Loss of biodiversity affects both material and¶ non-material human well-beings. Both the¶ continued loss of biodiversity and the¶ disruption of cultural integrity represent¶ obstacles towards the attainment of the¶ Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).¶ Biodiversity loss continues because current¶ policies and economic systems do not incorporate¶ the values of biodiversity effectively in either¶ the political or the market systems, and many¶ current policies are not fully implemented.¶ Although many losses of biodiversity,¶ including the degradation of ecosystems, are¶ slow or gradual, they can lead to sudden¶ and dramatic declines in the capacity of¶ biodiversity to contribute to human wellbeing
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Ash and Fazel, 7 (Neville and Ashgar, Neville Ash heads the Ecosystem Assessment Programme of the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre and Senior Advisor at UNEP-WCMC ¶ Lecturer, Dean, Chancellor at University of Environment ¶ CBD/SBSTTA Chair at UNCBD, “Biodiversity”, NO DATE, http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/report/05_Biodiversity.pdf)
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Human health is affected by changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services the environment have altered disease patterns and human exposure to disease outbreaks current patterns of farming, based on high resource inputs and agricultural intensification, are putting great strains on ecosystems Human societies everywhere have depended on biodiversity for cultural identity, spirituality, inspiration, aesthetic enjoyment and recreation. . Loss of biodiversity affects both material and non-material human well-beings. Both the continued loss of biodiversity and the disruption of cultural integrity represent obstacles towards the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals losses of biodiversity lead to sudden and dramatic declines in the capacity of biodiversity to contribute to human wellbeing
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Life is dependent on the environment
| 1,396 | 36 | 816 | 191 | 6 | 109 | 0.031414 | 0.570681 |
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No species has ever dominated its fellow species as man has. In most cases, people have assumed the God-like power of life and death -- extinction or survival -- over the plants and animals of the world. For most of history, mankind pursued this domination with a single-minded determination to master the world, tame the wilderness, and exploit nature for the maximum benefit of the human race. N67 In past mass extinction episodes, as many as ninety percent of the existing species perished, and yet the world moved forward, and new species replaced the old. So why the world should be concerned now? The prime reason is the world's survival. Like all animal life, humans live off of other species. At some point, the number of species could decline to the point at which the ecosystem fails, and then humans also would become extinct. No one knows how many [*171] species the world needs to support human life, and to find out -- by allowing certain species to become extinct -- would not be sound policy. In addition to food, species offer many direct and indirect benefits to mankind. n68 2. Ecological Value. -- Ecological value is the value that species have in maintaining the environment. Pest, n69 erosion, and flood control are prime benefits certain species provide to man. Plants and animals also provide additional ecological services -- pollution control, oxygen production, sewage treatment, and biodegradation. n71 3. Scientific and Utilitarian Value. -- Scientific value is the use of species for research into the physical processes of the world. Without plants and animals, a large portion of basic scientific research would be impossible. Utilitarian value is the direct utility humans draw from plants and animals. Only a fraction of the [*172] earth's species have been examined, and mankind may someday desperately need the species that it is exterminating today. To accept that the snail darter, harelip sucker, or Dismal Swamp southeastern shrew n74 could save mankind may be difficult for some. Many, if not most, species are useless to man in a direct utilitarian sense. Nonetheless, they may be critical in an indirect role, because their extirpations could affect a directly useful species negatively. In a closely interconnected ecosystem, the loss of a species affects other species dependent on it. n75 Moreover, as the number of species decline, the effect of each new extinction on the remaining species increases dramatically. n76 4. Biological Diversity. -- The main premise of species preservation is that diversity is better than simplicity. n77 As the current mass extinction has progressed, the world's biological diversity generally has decreased. This trend occurs within ecosystems by reducing the number of species, and within species by reducing the number of individuals. Both trends carry serious future implications. Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of specialist species, filling narrow ecological niches. These ecosystems inherently are more stable than less diverse systems. "The more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist a stress. . . . [l]ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resist collapse better than a simple, unbranched circle of threads -- which if cut anywhere breaks down as a whole." n79 By causing widespread extinctions, humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems. As biologic simplicity increases, so does the risk of ecosystem failure. The spreading Sahara Desert in Africa, and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the United States are relatively mild examples of what might be expected if this trend continues. Theoretically, each new animal or plant extinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects, could cause total ecosystem collapse and human extinction. Each new extinction increases the risk of disaster. Like a mechanic removing, one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wings, [hu]mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.
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Diner 93 (David N. Diner is the judge advocate general’s corps of US Army, “THE ARMY AND THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT: WHO' S ENDANGERING WHOM?”, April, 1993, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a456541.pdf (pg. 11-14))
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The prime reason is the world's survival. Like all animal life, humans live off of other species. At some point, the number of species could decline to the point at which the ecosystem fails, and then humans also would become extinct. In addition to food, species offer many direct and indirect benefits to mankind. Ecological value is the value that species have in maintaining the environment. Pest, n69 erosion, and flood control are prime benefits certain species provide to man. Plants and animals also provide additional ecological services -- pollution control, oxygen production, sewage treatment, and biodegradation. Scientific and Utilitarian Value. -- Scientific value is the use of species for research into the physical processes of the world. Without plants and animals, a large portion of basic scientific research would be impossible. Utilitarian value is the direct utility humans draw from plants and animals. Many, if not most, species are useless to man in a direct utilitarian sense. Nonetheless, they may be critical in an indirect role, because their extirpations could affect a directly useful species negatively. In a closely interconnected ecosystem, the loss of a species affects other species dependent on it. Moreover, as the number of species decline, the effect of each new extinction on the remaining species increases dramatically -- The main premise of species preservation is that diversity is better than simplicity. This trend occurs within ecosystems by reducing the number of species, and within species by reducing the number of individuals. Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of specialist species, filling narrow ecological niches. These ecosystems inherently are more stable than less diverse systems. The more complex the ecosystem, the more successfully it can resist a stress. . . . [l]ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resist collapse better than a simple, unbranched circle of threads -- which if cut anywhere breaks down as a whole. By causing widespread extinctions, humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems. As biologic simplicity increases, so does the risk of ecosystem failure. each new animal or plant extinction could cause total ecosystem collapse and human extinction. Each new extinction increases the risk of disaster.
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Biodiversity loss will cause planetary extinction
| 4,042 | 50 | 2,379 | 644 | 6 | 369 | 0.009317 | 0.572981 |
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Lemonick, 12 (Michael D. Lemonick, Senior science writer at Time magazine in New York ”How Biodiversity Loss is Like LeBron James & Miami Heat”, Jun 9, 2012, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/09/495988/how-biodiversity-loss-is-like-lebron-james-amp-miami-heat/?mobile=nc, MS) Ecologists have been saying for decades now that the world is in the midst of a biodiversity crisis. Hundreds of species are vanishing every year, thanks to assaults to the environment that include deforestation, overfishing, toxic pollution and, increasingly, climate change — the lethal icing on an already poisoned cake. Twenty years ago, 150 countries signed the international Convention on Biodiversity to try and hold back the tide of extermination, but without much success: Scientists are now saying the planet may be going through its sixth mass extinction in the past 540 million years, and the first caused by humans.¶ But experts haven’t been so good at explaining exactly why this is such a terrible thing. “Most of the arguments have been based on the idea that biodiversity has some intrinsic value,” said Bradley Cardinale, an ecologist at the University of Michigan, in an interview yesterday. “We like it. It’s pretty. The Pope says we should conserve God’s creation. Maybe we’ll find new medicinal plants in the rainforest.”¶ In a new paper just published in Nature, however, Cardinale and 17 colleagues have made a much more solid argument. “We’re saying that biodiversity does things that are really important,” he said. “There’s really strong evidence that if we lose biodiversity, it will, among other things, affect food production and fresh water supplies and increase the frequency of pests and diseases that affect crops and animals.”¶ The paper is what’s known as a meta-analysis: the 18 authors, all of them leaders in the field of ecology, gathered more than a thousand studies published over the past 20 years that looked at biodiversity from a myriad of angles. Then they looked at whether differences in biodiversity affected an ecosystem’s ability to do useful things — the ability of a forest to remove carbon from the atmosphere, for example, or supply wood for construction; the ability of bacteria in a stream to neutralize pollutants; the ability of natural predators and parasites to control agricultural pests.¶ The answer, it turns out, is yes, to these and many other similar questions. In many cases, it boils down to two primary reasons. The first is that the most diverse ecosystems tend to include what the scientists call “super species.” Say you’re talking about the capacity of a diverse forest to produce wood, or to take carbon from the air, Cardinale said.¶ “About 50 percent of that effect will come from a single, highly productive species,” he said. The other half comes from a wide variety of other species that occupy different niches, grow at different rates. “It’s like the Miami Heat,” he said. “Half of their productivity comes from LeBron James, but without a strong supporting cast of players, that would not be enough.”
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Nautiyal & Nidamanuri 10 (Centre for Ecological Economics and Natural Resources @ Institute for Social and Economic Change & Department of Earth and Space Sciences @ Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology [SUNIL NAUTIYAL1 & RAMA RAO NIDAMANURI “Conserving Biodiversity in Protected Area of Biodiversity Hotspot in India: A Case Study,” International Journal of Ecology and Environmental Sciences 36 (2-3): 195-200, 2010) The hotspots are the world’s most biologically rich areas hence recognized as important ecosystems not important¶ only for the rich biodiversity but equally important for the human survival as these are the homes for more than¶ 20% of the world’s population. India got recognition of one of the mega-diversity countries of world as the country¶ is home of the two important biodiversity hotspots: the Himalaya in north and the Western Ghats in the southern¶ peninsula. Policy makers and decision takers have recognized the importance of biodiversity (flora and fauna) and¶ this has resulted to segregate (in the form of protected areas) the rich and diverse landscape for biodiversity¶ conservation. An approach which leads towards conservation of biological diversity is good efforts but such¶ approaches should deal with humans equally who are residing in biodiversity hotspots since time immemorial. In¶ this endeavor, a study was conducted in Nagarahole National Park of Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, in Karnataka. Our¶ empirical studies reveal that banning all the human activities in this ecosystem including agriculture, animal¶ husbandry has produced the results opposite to the approach ‘multiple values’ of national park. To monitor the¶ impact, existing policies have been tested from an economic and ecological view-point. Unfortunately, the local¶ livelihoods (most of them belongs to indigenous tribes) in the area have received setbacks due to the¶ implementation of the policies, though unintentionally. However, the ecological perspective is also not showing¶ support for the approach and framework of the current policies in the hotspots. Satellite data showed that the¶ temporal pattern of ecosystem processes has been changing. An integrated approach for ecosystem conservation and¶ strengthening local institutions for sustainable ecosystem management in such areas is therefore supported by this¶ study.
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Ecologists have been saying for decades now that the world is in the midst of a biodiversity crisis. Hundreds of species are vanishing every year, thanks to assaults to the environment that include deforestation, overfishing, toxic pollution and, increasingly, climate change — the lethal icing on an already poisoned cake the most diverse ecosystems tend to include super species.” Say you’re talking about the capacity of a diverse forest to produce wood, or to take carbon from the air About 50 percent of that effect will come from a single, highly productive species The other half comes from a wide variety of other species that occupy different niches It’s like the Miami Heat,” Half of their productivity comes from LeBron James, but without a strong supporting cast of players, that would not be enough
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These environmental hotspots are vital for human survival
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National Science Foundation 12 (Ecosystem Effects of Biodiversity Loss Rival Climate Change and Pollution, 5/2, http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=124016) Loss of biodiversity appears to affect ecosystems as much as climate change, pollution and other major forms of environmental stress, according to results of a new study by an international research team.¶ The study is the first comprehensive effort to directly compare the effects of biological diversity loss to the anticipated effects of a host of other human-caused environmental changes.¶ The results, published in this week's issue of the journal Nature, highlight the need for stronger local, national and international efforts to protect biodiversity and the benefits it provides, according to the researchers, who are based at nine institutions in the United States, Canada and Sweden.¶ "This analysis establishes that reduced biodiversity affects ecosystems at levels comparable to those of global warming and air pollution," said Henry Gholz, program director in the National Science Foundation's Division of Environmental Biology, which funded the research directly and through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis.¶ "Some people have assumed that biodiversity effects are relatively minor compared to other environmental stressors," said biologist David Hooper of Western Washington University, the lead author of the paper.¶ "Our results show that future loss of species has the potential to reduce plant production just as much as global warming and pollution."¶ Studies over the last two decades demonstrated that more biologically diverse ecosystems are more productive.¶ As a result, there has been growing concern that the very high rates of modern extinctions--due to habitat loss, overharvesting and other human-caused environmental changes--could reduce nature's ability to provide goods and services such as food, clean water and a stable climate.¶ Until now, it's been unclear how biodiversity losses stack up against other human-caused environmental changes that affect ecosystem health and productivity.¶ "Loss of biological diversity due to species extinctions is going to have major effects on our planet, and we need to prepare ourselves to deal with them," said ecologist Bradley Cardinale of the University of Michigan, one of the paper's co-authors. "These extinctions may well rank as one of the top five drivers of global change."¶ In the study, Hooper, Cardinale and colleagues combined data from a large number of published studies to compare how various global environmental stressors affect two processes important in ecosystems: plant growth and the decomposition of dead plants by bacteria and fungi.¶ The study involved the construction of a database drawn from 192 peer-reviewed publications about experiments that manipulated species richness and examined their effect on ecosystem processes.¶ This global synthesis found that in areas where local species loss during this century falls within the lower range of projections (losses of 1 to 20 percent of plant species), negligible effects on ecosystem plant growth will result, and changes in species richness will rank low relative to the effects projected for other environmental changes.¶ In ecosystems where species losses fall within intermediate projections of 21 to 40 percent of species, however, species loss is expected to reduce plant growth by 5 to 10 percent.¶ The effect is comparable to the expected effects of climate warming and increased ultraviolet radiation due to stratospheric ozone loss.¶ At higher levels of extinction (41 to 60 percent of species), the effects of species loss ranked with those of many other major drivers of environmental change, such as ozone pollution, acid deposition on forests and nutrient pollution.¶ "Within the range of expected species losses, we saw average declines in plant growth that were as large as changes in experiments simulating several other major environmental changes caused by humans," Hooper said.¶ "Several of us working on this study were surprised by the comparative strength of those effects."¶ The strength of the observed biodiversity effects suggests that policymakers searching for solutions to other pressing environmental problems should be aware of potential adverse effects on biodiversity as well.¶ Still to be determined is how diversity loss and other large-scale environmental changes will interact to alter ecosystems.¶ "The biggest challenge looking forward is to predict the combined effects of these environmental challenges to natural ecosystems and to society," said J. Emmett Duffy of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, a co-author of the paper.¶ Authors of the paper, in addition to Hooper, Cardinale and Duffy, are E. Carol Adair of the University of Vermont and the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis; Jarrett Byrnes of the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis; Bruce Hungate of Northern Arizona University; Kristen Matulich of University of California, Irvine; Andrew Gonzales of McGill University; Lars Gamfeldt of the University of Gothenburg; and Mary O'Connor of the University of British Columbia and the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis.
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Lemonick, 12 (Michael D. Lemonick, Senior science writer at Time magazine in New York ”How Biodiversity Loss is Like LeBron James & Miami Heat”, Jun 9, 2012, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/06/09/495988/how-biodiversity-loss-is-like-lebron-james-amp-miami-heat/?mobile=nc, MS) Ecologists have been saying for decades now that the world is in the midst of a biodiversity crisis. Hundreds of species are vanishing every year, thanks to assaults to the environment that include deforestation, overfishing, toxic pollution and, increasingly, climate change — the lethal icing on an already poisoned cake. Twenty years ago, 150 countries signed the international Convention on Biodiversity to try and hold back the tide of extermination, but without much success: Scientists are now saying the planet may be going through its sixth mass extinction in the past 540 million years, and the first caused by humans.¶ But experts haven’t been so good at explaining exactly why this is such a terrible thing. “Most of the arguments have been based on the idea that biodiversity has some intrinsic value,” said Bradley Cardinale, an ecologist at the University of Michigan, in an interview yesterday. “We like it. It’s pretty. The Pope says we should conserve God’s creation. Maybe we’ll find new medicinal plants in the rainforest.”¶ In a new paper just published in Nature, however, Cardinale and 17 colleagues have made a much more solid argument. “We’re saying that biodiversity does things that are really important,” he said. “There’s really strong evidence that if we lose biodiversity, it will, among other things, affect food production and fresh water supplies and increase the frequency of pests and diseases that affect crops and animals.”¶ The paper is what’s known as a meta-analysis: the 18 authors, all of them leaders in the field of ecology, gathered more than a thousand studies published over the past 20 years that looked at biodiversity from a myriad of angles. Then they looked at whether differences in biodiversity affected an ecosystem’s ability to do useful things — the ability of a forest to remove carbon from the atmosphere, for example, or supply wood for construction; the ability of bacteria in a stream to neutralize pollutants; the ability of natural predators and parasites to control agricultural pests.¶ The answer, it turns out, is yes, to these and many other similar questions. In many cases, it boils down to two primary reasons. The first is that the most diverse ecosystems tend to include what the scientists call “super species.” Say you’re talking about the capacity of a diverse forest to produce wood, or to take carbon from the air, Cardinale said.¶ “About 50 percent of that effect will come from a single, highly productive species,” he said. The other half comes from a wide variety of other species that occupy different niches, grow at different rates. “It’s like the Miami Heat,” he said. “Half of their productivity comes from LeBron James, but without a strong supporting cast of players, that would not be enough.”
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Loss of biodiversity appears to affect ecosystems as much as climate change, pollution and other major forms of environmental stress reduced biodiversity affects ecosystems at levels comparable to those of global warming and air pollution biologist David Hooper of Western Washington University results show future loss of species has the potential to reduce plant production just as much as global warming and pollution habitat loss, overharvesting and other human-caused environmental changes- reduce nature's ability to provide goods and services such as food, clean water and a stable climate
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Some species carry more weight than others, making their loss catastrophic- Just like the Miami Heat Losing Lebron James
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(http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/forests/climate-change, Greenpeace is the leading independent campaigning organization that uses peaceful protest and creative communication to expose global environmental problems and to promote solutions that are essential to a green and peaceful future.) As our understanding of the role forests play in stabilizing global climate increases, it is becoming clear that their destruction is only exacerbating climate change. If we're serious about tackling this, then preserving our remaining ancient forests has to be a priority. Mature forests store enormous quantities of carbon, both in the trees and vegetation itself and within the soil in the form of decaying plant matter. Forests in areas such as the Congo and the Amazon represent some of the world's largest carbon stores on land. But when forests are logged or burnt, that carbon is released into the atmosphere, increasing the amount of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and accelerating the rate of climate change. So much carbon is released that they contribute up to one-fifth of global man-made emissions, more than the world's entire transport sector. Deforestation has such a massive effect on climate change that Indonesia and Brazil are now the third and fourth largest emitters of carbon dioxide on the planet. This dubious honour comes not from industrial or transport emissions, but from deforestation - up to 75 per cent of Brazil's emissions come solely from deforestation - with the majority coming from clearing and burning areas of the Amazon rainforest.
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Greenpeace No date
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If we're serious about tackling this, then preserving our remaining ancient forests has to be a priority. Forests in areas such as the Congo and the Amazon represent some of the world's largest carbon stores on land. So much carbon is released that they contribute up to one-fifth of global man-made emissions, more than the world's entire transport sector. Deforestation has such a massive effect on climate change that Indonesia and Brazil are now the third and fourth largest emitters of carbon dioxide on the planet. up to 75 per cent of Brazil's emissions come solely from deforestation - with the majority coming from clearing and burning areas of the Amazon rainforest.
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Deforestation of the amazon rainforest has massive effects on climate change
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(October 6, 2009, Science Codex, “Scientist predicts resource wars as climate change takes its toll,”http://www.sciencecodex.com/ water_scarcity_will_create_global_security_concerns, Science Codex posts articles on the latest science findings from all over the world. The Earth Science feed is for news related to climate science, energy and geology issues such as earthquakes and volcanoes.) Water scarcity as a result of climate change will create far-reaching global security concerns, says Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri, chair of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, a co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. Pachauri spoke this morning at the 2009 Nobel Conference at Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter, MN. "At one level the world's water is like the world's wealth. Globally, there is more than enough to go round. The problem is that some countries get a lot more than others," he says. "With 31 percent of global freshwater resources, Latin America has 12 times more water per person than South Asia. Some places, such as Brazil and Canada, get far more water than they can use; others, such as countries in the Middle East, get much less than they need." And the effects of a warmer world will likely include changes in water availability. "Up to 1.2 billion people in Asia, 250 million Africans and 81 million Latin Americans will be exposed to increased water stress by 2020," Pachauri says. Water shortages have an enormous impact of human health, including malnutrition, pathogen or chemical loading, infectious disease from water contamination, and uncontrolled water reuse. "Due to the very large number of people that may be affected, food and water scarcity may be the most important health consequences of climate change," Pachauri says. When communities fight over water resources, there's a great danger for a disruption of peace and security. "That water scarcity plays a role in creating the preconditions of desperation and discontent is undeniable," he says. Competition for water from the river Jordan was a major cause of the 1967 war. India has been in dispute with Pakistan over the Indus and with Bangladesh over the Ganges. "Over 260 river basins are shared by two or more countries," he says. "As the resource is becoming scarce, tensions among different users may intensify, both at the national and international level. In the absence of strong institutions and agreements, changes within a basin can lead to trans-boundary tensions." "We live on a small planet where communication and influences go from one corner of the Earth to another," he says. "If there's a major disruption to peace in one part of the globe, no other part is insulated from it. We need to look at what happens to the rest of the world with some degree of alarm; these influences have very dangerous implications for the rest of the world." Societies so far have been able to adapt to changes in weather and climate – via crop diversification, irrigation, disaster risk management, and insurance – but climate change might go beyond what our traditional coping mechanisms can handle, Pachauri suggests. Even societies with "high adaptive capacity" are vulnerable to climate change, variability and extremes, he says, citing examples of the 2003 heat wave that took the lives of many elderly in European cities and 2005's Hurricane Katrina. "A technological society has two choices," Pachauri says. "It can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions, or the culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures." "Global emissions of greenhouse gases will have to decline by 2015. If we can achieve that, we may be able to avoid the worst effects of climate change," he says. "The costs of this are not high. A major mitigation would only postpone growth domestic product growth by one year at most over the medium term. That's not a high price to pay for the world." "There is no more crucial issue to human society than the future of water on this planet," he says. "We must work diligently to see that the worst effects don't come to pass. We have very little time. Unless we act with a sense of urgency, there will certainly be conflict and a disruption of peace."
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Science Codex 9
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Water scarcity as a result of climate change will create far-reaching global security concerns At one level the world's water is like the world's wealth. Globally, there is more than enough to go round. And the effects of a warmer world will likely include changes in water availability. "Up to 1.2 billion people in Asia, 250 million Africans and 81 million Latin Americans will be exposed to increased water stress by 2020 That water scarcity plays a role in creating the preconditions of desperation and discontent is undeniable, Competition for water from the river Jordan was a major cause of the 1967 war. India has been in dispute with Pakistan over the Indus and with Bangladesh over the Ganges. "Over 260 river basins are shared by two or more countries, If there's a major disruption to peace in one part of the globe, no other part is insulated from it. We need to look at what happens to the rest of the world with some degree of alarm; these influences have very dangerous implications for the rest of the world." Unless we act with a sense of urgency, there will certainly be conflict and a disruption of peace."
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Independently, climate change will cause resource wars over water that spill over globally
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Near the end of WW II, Franklin Roosevelt met with Saudi King ibn Saud on the USS Quincy. It began a six decade relationship guaranteeing US access to what his State Department called a “stupendous source of strategic power, and one of the greatest material prizes in world history” – the region’s oil and huge amount of it in Saudi Arabia. Today, the Middle East has two-thirds of the world’s proved oil reserves (around 675 billion barrels) and the Caspian basin an estimated 270 billion barrels more plus one-eighth of the world’s natural gas reserves. It explains a lot about why we’re at war with Iraq and Afghanistan and plan maintaining control over both countries. We want a permanent military presence in them aimed at controlling both regions’ proved energy reserves with puppet regimes, masquerading as democracies, beholden to Washington as client states. They’re in place to observe what their ousted predecessors ignored: the rules of imperial management, especially Rule One – we’re boss and what we say goes. The Bush administration is “boss” writ large. It intends ruling the world by force, saying so in its National Security Strategy (NSS) in 2002, then updated in even stronger terms in 2006. It plainly states our newly claimed sovereign right allowed no other country – the right to wage preventive wars against perceived threats or any nations daring to challenge our status as lord and master of the universe. Key to the strategy is controlling the world’s energy reserves starting with the Middle East and Central Asia’s vast amount outside Russia and China with enough military strength to control their own, at least for now. These resources give us veto power over which nations will or won’t get them and assures Big Oil gets the lion’s share of the profits.
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Lendman 7(June 06, 2007, Stephen Lendman, “Resource Wars – Can We Survive Them?,” http://www.globalresearch.ca/resource-wars-can-we-survive-them/5892, Stephen Lendman was born in 1934 in Boston, MA. In 1956, he received a BA from Harvard University. Two years of US Army service followed, then an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania in 1960. After working seven years as a marketing research analyst, he joined the Lendman Group family business in 1967. He remained there until retiring at year end 1999. Writing on major world and national issues began in summer 2005.)
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the Middle East has two-thirds of the world’s proved oil reserves (around 675 billion barrels) and the Caspian basin an estimated 270 billion barrels more plus one-eighth of the world’s natural gas reserves. It explains a lot about why we’re at war with Iraq and Afghanistan and plan maintaining control over both countries.
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Resource wars lead to nuclear winter and extinction – brings in major powers
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The medicinal use of natural products—compounds that are derived from natural sources such as plants, animals or micro-organisms—precedes recorded human history probably by thousands of years. Palaeoanthropological studies at the cave site of Shanidar, located in the Zagros Mountains of Kurdistan in Iraq, have suggested that more than 60,000 years ago, Neanderthals might have been aware of the medicinal properties of various plants, as evidenced by pollen deposits in one of the graves at the site (Solecki, 1975). Over the ensuing millennia, humankind discovered and made use of an enormous range of natural compounds; the latest version of the Dictionary of Natural Products (DNP; http://dnp.chemnetbase.com) has just over 214,000 entries. Throughout our evolution, the importance of natural products for medicine and health has been enormous. Since our earliest ancestors chewed on certain herbs to relieve pain, or wrapped leaves around wounds to improve healing, natural products have often been the sole means to treat diseases and injuries. In fact, it has only been during the past decades that natural products have taken a secondary role in drug discovery and drug development, after the advent of molecular biology and combinatorial chemistry made possible the rational design of chemical compounds to target specific molecules. The past few years, however, have seen a renewed interest in the use of natural compounds and, more importantly, their role as a basis for drug development. The modern tools of chemistry and biology—in particular, the various ‘-omics' technologies—now allow scientists to detail the exact nature of the biological effects of natural compounds on the human body, as well as to uncover possible synergies, which holds much promise for the development of new therapies against many devastating diseases, including dementia and cancer.…Throughout our evolution, the importance of natural products for medicine and health has been enormous This new strategy could have several advantages as it would modulate biological networks rather modestly and might therefore be more efficient in dealing with complex diseases (Csermely et al, 2005; Dancey & Chen 2006; Zimmermann et al, 2007). Moreover, it could prevent, or at least slow down, the development of resistance against many antibiotics, antimalarials and anti-cancer drugs. The prospect of new and better drug combinations is enticing, and natural compounds hold great promise. Nevertheless, a huge challenge remains to identify natural compounds—or naturally inspired compounds—that can be combined to be effective against human disease. The enormous number of possible drug combinations, the inherent risks of harmful drug–drug interactions, the possible antagonistic effects and the unpredictable pharmacokinetic properties of multi-component formulations must still be addressed. As pointed out above, we have a rich historical record from ancient physicians about how to use natural medicines alone and in combination, which might provide important clues for developing new drugs (Schmidt et al, 2007; Verpoorte et al, 2009). To make the best use of our forbearers' knowledge, we need to analyse these medical formulae and elucidate their synergistic effects. We already know of some compounds that are more powerful in combination than alone: for example, the combination of Realgar, Indigo naturalis, Radix salviae miltiorrhizae and Radix pseudostellariae constitutes a formula in TCM that has proven effective against human acute promyelocytic leukaemia (Huang et al, 1995). Its synergistic effect was recently attributed to the direct anti-cancer properties of tetra-arsenic tetrasulphide from Realgar and the complementary effects of indirubin and tanshinone IIA from Indigo naturalis and Radix salviae miltiorrhizae, respectively, which enhance the transport of tetra-arsenic tetrasulphide into target cells and thus potentiates its efficacy (Wang et al, 2008). …we have a rich historical record from ancient physicians […], which might provide important clues for developing new drugs…
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Hong-Fang et. al. 9 (Hong-Fang Ji, Xue-Juan Li & Hong-Yu Zhang are at the Shandong Provincial Research Center for Bioinformatic Engineering and Technique at Shandong University of Technology in Zibo, People's Republic of China, March 2009, “Natural products and drug discovery. Can thousands of years of ancient medical knowledge lead us to new and powerful drug combinations in the fight against cancer and dementia?”, Published by the U.S. National Library of Medicine, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2658564/) BC
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Throughout our evolution, the importance of natural products for medicine and health has been enormous. , natural products have often been the sole means to treat diseases and injuries. The past few years have seen a renewed interest in the use of natural compounds as a basis for drug development modern tools allow scientists to detail the nature of the biological effects of natural compounds on the human body which holds much promise for the development of new therapies against many devastating diseases, including dementia and cancer. The prospect of new and better drug combinations is enticing, and natural compounds hold great promise.
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Natural Drugs may hold the key to thwart many devastating diseases
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DJUS 9 (Dartmouth Undergraduate Journal of Science, “Human Extinction: The Uncertainty of Our Fate”, May 22, 2009, http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate#.UfQumb4o7Kp, MS) A pandemic will kill off all humans.¶ In the past, humans have indeed fallen victim to viruses. Perhaps the best-known case was the bubonic plague that killed up to one third of the European population in the mid-14th century (7). While vaccines have been developed for the plague and some other infectious diseases, new viral strains are constantly emerging — a process that maintains the possibility of a pandemic-facilitated human extinction.¶ Some surveyed students mentioned AIDS as a potential pandemic-causing virus. It is true that scientists have been unable thus far to find a sustainable cure for AIDS, mainly due to HIV’s rapid and constant evolution. Specifically, two factors account for the virus’s abnormally high mutation rate: 1. HIV’s use of reverse transcriptase, which does not have a proof-reading mechanism, and 2. the lack of an error-correction mechanism in HIV DNA polymerase (8). Luckily, though, there are certain characteristics of HIV that make it a poor candidate for a large-scale global infection: HIV can lie dormant in the human body for years without manifesting itself, and AIDS itself does not kill directly, but rather through the weakening of the immune system. ¶ However, for more easily transmitted viruses such as influenza, the evolution of new strains could prove far more consequential. The simultaneous occurrence of antigenic drift (point mutations that lead to new strains) and antigenic shift (the inter-species transfer of disease) in the influenza virus could produce a new version of influenza for which scientists may not immediately find a cure. Since influenza can spread quickly, this lag time could potentially lead to a “global influenza pandemic,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (9). The most recent scare of this variety came in 1918 when bird flu managed to kill over 50 million people around the world in what is sometimes referred to as the Spanish flu pandemic. Perhaps even more frightening is the fact that only 25 mutations were required to convert the original viral strain — which could only infect birds — into a human-viable strain (10).
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Morag 12 (Dr. Nadav Morag is Deputy Director for Policy Research and a faculty member at the Center for Homeland Defense and Security, Naval Postgraduate School, and teaches senior federal, state and local homeland security officials selected and funded by the Department of Homeland Security within the context of the center’s Master’s in Homeland Security program., Ph.D., Political Science (1999), Tel Aviv University; MA, Political Science (1989), University of California, Los Angeles; BA, Political Science (1987), University of California, Los Angeles, “The Ripple Effects of Pandemics on Modern Society”, November 28, 2012, http://www.coloradotech.edu/Student-Life/CTU-Blog/November-2012/Pandemic-2) Human history records a number of significant pandemics, from influenza to tuberculosis. From this, most people associate pandemics with death, but few understand the severe impact pandemics have on society as a whole. The following three cases explore the potentially devastating nature of pandemics, both in terms of the loss of life and economic impact.The Black DeatIn the Spring of 1348, the Bubonic Plague struck Asia and Europe and continued to return, in varying degrees of virulence, until the eighteenth century. The plague caused painful swelling of the lymph nodes, known as “buboes,” which caused the skin to be covered with dark blotches. From this, the name, “Black Death,” was popularized.Rodents carried the disease and another version of it, known as the Pneumonic Plague, was transmitted by air. Set in a period devoid of modern medical care and sterile hygiene standards, four out of five infected persons died within a week of contracting the Bubonic Plague, or in as few as one or two days if infected by the Pneumonic Plague. Collectively, some 75 million people are thought to have died from the pandemic with at least 20 million deaths in Europe, which accounted for potentially two-thirds of Europe’s population. The impact of a highly contagious pandemic of such virulence led to what is commonly referred to today as “social distancing,” but in a very extreme way. People fled cities, abandoning family and friends, which caused old class and religious structures to break down. For a time, the process of urbanization was reversed and Europe reverted to a more agrarian society. The economic impact was startling. With fewer people left to produce goods, basic commodities became extremely expensive. Additionally, wages for peasants increased creating slightly more social mobility for those who were lucky enough to survive.SmallpoxSmallpox is a highly contagious disease caused by the Variola virus, which in the twentieth century, is thought to have killed over 300-500 million people globally. Its more virulent strain has a mortality rate of 30-35%. Originally transmitted by Europeans to the Americas during the Spanish and Portuguese colonization of Latin America, smallpox is thought to have been the main reason for the devastating drop in population among the native population because they had no natural immunity to the disease. Some estimates suggest as many as 95% of the native population perished. Further, the collapse of advanced Native American civilizations, such as the Aztecs and the Incas, has been attributed to ravages of smallpox. In 1979, as a result of the successful worldwide vaccination campaigns, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared smallpox to have been completely eradicated. The virus is thought to only exist in a handful of laboratories around the world.Ironically, the success of the WHO’s eradication campaign has left today’s human population at risk. People are no longer vaccinated against the virus, and consequently, human populations are highly vulnerable to it.Spanish FluBetween 1918 and 1919, the Spanish Flu killed approximately 50 million people globally. Caused by the influenza virus, some people were able to stave off the disease and only experienced severe flu symptoms. Yet, many fought a losing battle with the disease experiencing an excruciating death as their lungs filled with fluid and they quickly asphyxiated. The disease was so rapid that people sometimes died only hours after being infected. This strain of Influenza received its name because Spain, a non-combatant in World War I, provided most of the information about the outbreak. Other combatant countries, including the United States, suppressed the news, choosing to exercise military censorship. It is difficult to know the number of people who became infected because of censorship, but the worldwide impact is clear.The Spanish flu claimed the lives of 20-50 million people worldwide, infecting people in all age groups, from very young children to elderly people. But most striking and of greatest social impact, was the very large percentage of working-age people, aged 15-34, who were killed by the disease.Lessons for TodayAs the above sampling of cases suggest, pandemics are a considerable threat to lives and livelihoods. Some public health officials estimate that in a major pandemic, particularly one that is highly contagious, some 60% of the workforce will be homebound resulting in basic goods disappearing from store shelves, the shutting down of basic services such as municipal services, health, transportation, law enforcement and schools. All could lead to runaway inflation due to price rises. Increasing global transportation links make managing pandemics a challenge. Pandemics are poised to spread more quickly than they did in the past, which complicates the process of identifying the virus or bacteria in question and developing vaccinations and drug treatments. Ultimately, pandemics will spread rapidly and kill many more people before they can be stopped.
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A pandemic will kill off all humans. humans have indeed fallen victim to viruses. Perhaps the best-known case was the bubonic plague that killed up to one third of the European population While vaccines have been developed for the plague and some other infectious diseases, new viral strains are constantly emerging — a process that maintains the possibility of a pandemic-facilitated human extinction. students mentioned AIDS as a potential pandemic-causing virus scientists have been unable thus far to find a sustainable cure for AIDS, mainly due to HIV’s rapid and constant evolution. easily transmitted viruses such as influenza, the evolution of new strains could prove far more consequential. The simultaneous occurrence of antigenic drift and antigenic shift in the influenza virus could produce a new version of influenza for which scientists may not immediately find a cure. Since influenza can spread quickly, this lag time could potentially lead to a “global influenza pandemic,” The most recent scare of this variety came bird flu managed to kill over 50 million people around the world even more frightening is the fact that only 25 mutations were required to convert the original viral strain — which could only infect birds — into a human-viable strain
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Impacts of Pandemics are far reaching
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Brown 11 (Lester R. Brown is the recipient of 26 honorary degrees and a MacArthur Fellowship, the Library of Congress requested Brown’s personal papers noting that his writings “have already strongly affected thinking about problems of world population and resources,” while president Bill Clinton has suggested that "we should all heed his advice."In 2003 he was one of the signers of the Humanist Manifesto. Brown helped pioneer the concept of sustainable development.Since then, he has been the recipient of many prizes and awards, including, the 1987 United Nations Environment Prize., “The New Geopolitics of Food,” June 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_new_geopolitics_of_food?page=0,2,) IN THIS ERA OF TIGHTENING world food supplies, the ability to grow food is fast becoming a new form of geopolitical leverage, and countries are scrambling to secure their own parochial interests at the expense of the common good. The first signs of trouble came in 2007, when farmers began having difficulty keeping up with the growth in global demand for grain. Grain and soybean prices started to climb, tripling by mid-2008. In response, many exporting countries tried to control the rise of domestic food prices by restricting exports. Among them were Russia and Argentina, two leading wheat exporters. Vietnam, the No. 2 rice exporter, banned exports entirely for several months in early 2008. So did several other smaller exporters of grain. With exporting countries restricting exports in 2007 and 2008, importing countries panicked. No longer able to rely on the market to supply the grain they needed, several countries took the novel step of trying to negotiate long-term grain-supply agreements with exporting countries. The Philippines, for instance, negotiated a three-year agreement with Vietnam for 1.5 million tons of rice per year. A delegation of Yemenis traveled to Australia with a similar goal in mind, but had no luck. In a seller's market, exporters were reluctant to make long-term commitments. Fearing they might not be able to buy needed grain from the market, some of the more affluent countries, led by Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and China, took the unusual step in 2008 of buying or leasing land in other countries on which to grow grain for themselves. Most of these land acquisitions are in Africa, where some governments lease cropland for less than $1 per acre per year. Among the principal destinations were Ethiopia and Sudan, countries where millions of people are being sustained with food from the U.N. World Food Program. That the governments of these two countries are willing to sell land to foreign interests when their own people are hungry is a sad commentary on their leadership. By the end of 2009, hundreds of land acquisition deals had been negotiated, some of them exceeding a million acres. A 2010 World Bank analysis of these "land grabs" reported that a total of nearly 140 million acres were involved -- an area that exceeds the cropland devoted to corn and wheat combined in the United States. Such acquisitions also typically involve water rights, meaning that land grabs potentially affect all downstream countries as well. Any water extracted from the upper Nile River basin to irrigate crops in Ethiopia or Sudan, for instance, will now not reach Egypt, upending the delicate water politics of the Nile by adding new countries with which Egypt must negotiate. The potential for conflict -- and not just over water -- is high. Many of the land deals have been made in secret, and in most cases, the land involved was already in use by villagers when it was sold or leased. Often those already farming the land were neither consulted about nor even informed of the new arrangements. And because there typically are no formal land titles in many developing-country villages, the farmers who lost their land have had little backing to bring their cases to court. Reporter John Vidal, writing in Britain's Observer, quotes Nyikaw Ochalla from Ethiopia's Gambella region: "The foreign companies are arriving in large numbers, depriving people of land they have used for centuries. There is no consultation with the indigenous population. The deals are done secretly. The only thing the local people see is people coming with lots of tractors to invade their lands." Local hostility toward such land grabs is the rule, not the exception. In 2007, as food prices were starting to rise, China signed an agreement with the Philippines to lease 2.5 million acres of land slated for food crops that would be shipped home. Once word leaked, the public outcry -- much of it from Filipino farmers -- forced Manila to suspend the agreement. A similar uproar rocked Madagascar, where a South Korean firm, Daewoo Logistics, had pursued rights to more than 3 million acres of land. Word of the deal helped stoke a political furor that toppled the government and forced cancellation of the agreement. Indeed, few things are more likely to fuel insurgencies than taking land from people. Agricultural equipment is easily sabotaged. If ripe fields of grain are torched, they burn quickly. Not only are these deals risky, but foreign investors producing food in a country full of hungry people face another political question of how to get the grain out. Will villagers permit trucks laden with grain headed for port cities to proceed when they themselves may be on the verge of starvation? The potential for political instability in countries where villagers have lost their land and their livelihoods is high. Conflicts could easily develop between investor and host countries.
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Annan 11 (Kofi A. Annan was the seventh Secretary-General of the United Nations, serving two terms from 1 January 1997 to 31 December 2006 and was the first to emerge from the ranks of United Nations staff. In 2001 Kofi Annan and the United Nations were jointly awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace with the citation praising his leadership for “bringing new life to the organisation”, “Food Security is a Global Challenge”, November 2011 http://kofiannanfoundation.org/newsroom/speeches/2011/11/food-security-global-challenge) Only last week [in 2011] the UN marked the world’s population reaching seven billion. And it was just 13 years earlier, in Sarajevo, where the world celebrated the birth of the six billionth child. This growth has been driven by great advances in healthcare, higher levels of prosperity, and longer life expectancy. But these achievements are marred by the knowledge that our successes go hand in hand with a shameful failure. For almost one in seven people on our planet will today not have enough to eat. Addressing this failure, urgent as it is, will be made much harder by climate change. For rising temperatures and more frequent severe weather will have a disastrous impact on the availability and productivity of agricultural land. Indeed they already are. It is these two inter-linked global challenges- food security in an era of climate change, and their impact on our ambitions for a fairer and more secure world that I want to talk about today. I will focus in particular on the challenges and opportunities that currently exist in Africa. Ladies and gentlemen, we live at a time of great contrasts. New technologies and the benefits of globalisation have created greater prosperity and more opportunity than ever before. But this progress has not been shared evenly. Hundreds of millions of our fellow citizens continue to live in poverty, and without dignity. At the heart of this global inequality lies food and nutrition insecurity. The lack of food security for almost one billion people is an unconscionable moral failing. But it is also a major brake on overall socio-economic development. It affects everything from the health of an unborn child to economic growth. But despite the increase in our knowledge and capabilities, instead of seeing a reduction in the number of people going hungry, we are seeing an increase. According to the World Bank, rapidly rising food prices during 2010 and 2011 pushed an additional 70 million people into extreme poverty. We also know that we will have to find food to feed many more mouths in the coming decades. Recent projections warn that the number of people may not stabilize at nine billion, as was forecast only two [four] years ago, but could surpass 10 billion by the end of the century. At the same time, greater prosperity in developing countries will see three billion people moving up the food chain with a growing appetite for meat and dairy products. So grain, once used to feed people, is increasingly being switched to feed animals. And rising oil prices have brought greater competition from heavily subsidized agro or bio fuels. These factors alone could lead to demand for food increasing by 70 per cent by 2050. This would be a tough enough challenge. But it is only half of a dangerous equation.
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IN THIS ERA OF TIGHTENING world food supplies, the ability to grow food is fast becoming a new form of geopolitical leverage, and countries are scrambling to secure their own parochial interests at the expense of the common good. many exporting countries tried to control the rise of domestic food prices by restricting exports. Among them were Russia and Argentina, two leading wheat exporters. Vietnam, the No. 2 rice exporter, banned exports entirely for several months in early 2008. So did several other smaller exporters of grain. With exporting countries restricting exports in 2007 and 2008, importing countries panicked. Fearing they might not be able to buy needed grain from the market, some of the more affluent countries, led by Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and China, took the unusual step in 2008 of buying or leasing land in other countries on which to grow grain for themselves. The potential for conflict -- and not just over water -- is high. Many of the land deals have been made in secret, Word of the deal helped stoke a political furor that toppled the government and forced cancellation of the agreement. Indeed, few things are more likely to fuel insurgencies than taking land from people. Conflicts could easily develop between investor and host countries.
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The food crisis will exponentially increase if no action is taken
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Klare 6 (Michael T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in Amherst, Mass., and the author of Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Petroleum Dependency, “The Coming Resource Wars,” March 9 2006 http://www.alternet.org/story/33243/the_coming_resource_wars,) "Military confrontation may be triggered by a desperate need for natural resources such as energy, food and water rather than by conflicts over ideology, religion or national honor." Until now, this mode of analysis has failed to command the attention of top American and British policymakers. For the most part, they insist that ideological and religious differences -- notably, the clash between values of tolerance and democracy on one hand and extremist forms of Islam on the other -- remain the main drivers of international conflict. But Reid's speech at Chatham House suggests that a major shift in strategic thinking may be under way. Environmental perils may soon dominate the world security agenda. This shift is due in part to the growing weight of evidence pointing to a significant human role in altering the planet's basic climate systems. Recent studies showing the rapid shrinkage of the polar ice caps, the accelerated melting of North American glaciers, the increased frequency of severe hurricanes and a number of other such effects all suggest that dramatic and potentially harmful changes to the global climate have begun to occur. More importantly, they conclude that human behavior -- most importantly, the burning of fossil fuels in factories, power plants, and motor vehicles -- is the most likely cause of these changes. This assessment may not have yet penetrated the White House and other bastions of head-in-the-sand thinking, but it is clearly gaining ground among scientists and thoughtful analysts around the world. For the most part, public discussion of global climate change has tended to describe its effects as an environmental problem -- as a threat to safe water, arable soil, temperate forests, certain species and so on. And, of course, climate change is a potent threat to the environment; in fact, the greatest threat imaginable. But viewing climate change as an environmental problem fails to do justice to the magnitude of the peril it poses. As Reid's speech and the 2003 Pentagon study make clear, the greatest danger posed by global climate change is not the degradation of ecosystems per se, but rather the disintegration of entire human societies, producing wholesale starvation, mass migrations and recurring conflict over resources. "As famine, disease, and weather-related disasters strike due to abrupt climate change," the Pentagon report notes, "many countries' needs will exceed their carrying capacity" -- that is, their ability to provide the minimum requirements for human survival. This "will create a sense of desperation, which is likely to lead to offensive aggression" against countries with a greater stock of vital resources. "Imagine eastern European countries, struggling to feed their populations with a falling supply of food, water, and energy, eyeing Russia, whose population is already in decline, for access to its grain, minerals, and energy supply." Similar scenarios will be replicated all across the planet, as those without the means to survival invade or migrate to those with greater abundance -- producing endless struggles between resource "haves" and "have-nots." It is this prospect, more than anything, that worries John Reid. In particular, he expressed concern over the inadequate capacity of poor and unstable countries to cope with the effects of climate change, and the resulting risk of state collapse, civil war and mass migration. "More than 300 million people in Africa currently lack access to safe water," he observed, and "climate change will worsen this dire situation" -- provoking more wars like Darfur. And even if these social disasters will occur primarily in the developing world, the wealthier countries will also be caught up in them, whether by participating in peacekeeping and humanitarian aid operations, by fending off unwanted migrants or by fighting for access to overseas supplies of food, oil, and minerals. When reading of these nightmarish scenarios, it is easy to conjure up images of desperate, starving people killing one another with knives, staves and clubs -- as was certainly often the case in the past, and could easily prove to be so again. But these scenarios also envision the use of more deadly weapons. "In this world of warring states," the 2003 Pentagon report predicted, "nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable." As oil and natural gas disappears, more and more countries will rely on nuclear power to meet their energy needs -- and this "will accelerate nuclear proliferation as countries develop enrichment and reprocessing capabilities to ensure their national security." Although speculative, these reports make one thing clear: when thinking about the calamitous effects of global climate change, we must emphasize its social and political consequences as much as its purely environmental effects. Drought, flooding and storms can kill us, and surely will -- but so will wars among the survivors of these catastrophes over what remains of food, water and shelter. As Reid's comments indicate, no society, however affluent, will escape involvement in these forms of conflict.
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Brown 11 (Lester R. Brown is the recipient of 26 honorary degrees and a MacArthur Fellowship, the Library of Congress requested Brown’s personal papers noting that his writings “have already strongly affected thinking about problems of world population and resources,” while president Bill Clinton has suggested that "we should all heed his advice."In 2003 he was one of the signers of the Humanist Manifesto. Brown helped pioneer the concept of sustainable development.Since then, he has been the recipient of many prizes and awards, including, the 1987 United Nations Environment Prize., “The New Geopolitics of Food,” June 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/25/the_new_geopolitics_of_food?page=0,2,) IN THIS ERA OF TIGHTENING world food supplies, the ability to grow food is fast becoming a new form of geopolitical leverage, and countries are scrambling to secure their own parochial interests at the expense of the common good. The first signs of trouble came in 2007, when farmers began having difficulty keeping up with the growth in global demand for grain. Grain and soybean prices started to climb, tripling by mid-2008. In response, many exporting countries tried to control the rise of domestic food prices by restricting exports. Among them were Russia and Argentina, two leading wheat exporters. Vietnam, the No. 2 rice exporter, banned exports entirely for several months in early 2008. So did several other smaller exporters of grain. With exporting countries restricting exports in 2007 and 2008, importing countries panicked. No longer able to rely on the market to supply the grain they needed, several countries took the novel step of trying to negotiate long-term grain-supply agreements with exporting countries. The Philippines, for instance, negotiated a three-year agreement with Vietnam for 1.5 million tons of rice per year. A delegation of Yemenis traveled to Australia with a similar goal in mind, but had no luck. In a seller's market, exporters were reluctant to make long-term commitments. Fearing they might not be able to buy needed grain from the market, some of the more affluent countries, led by Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and China, took the unusual step in 2008 of buying or leasing land in other countries on which to grow grain for themselves. Most of these land acquisitions are in Africa, where some governments lease cropland for less than $1 per acre per year. Among the principal destinations were Ethiopia and Sudan, countries where millions of people are being sustained with food from the U.N. World Food Program. That the governments of these two countries are willing to sell land to foreign interests when their own people are hungry is a sad commentary on their leadership. By the end of 2009, hundreds of land acquisition deals had been negotiated, some of them exceeding a million acres. A 2010 World Bank analysis of these "land grabs" reported that a total of nearly 140 million acres were involved -- an area that exceeds the cropland devoted to corn and wheat combined in the United States. Such acquisitions also typically involve water rights, meaning that land grabs potentially affect all downstream countries as well. Any water extracted from the upper Nile River basin to irrigate crops in Ethiopia or Sudan, for instance, will now not reach Egypt, upending the delicate water politics of the Nile by adding new countries with which Egypt must negotiate. The potential for conflict -- and not just over water -- is high. Many of the land deals have been made in secret, and in most cases, the land involved was already in use by villagers when it was sold or leased. Often those already farming the land were neither consulted about nor even informed of the new arrangements. And because there typically are no formal land titles in many developing-country villages, the farmers who lost their land have had little backing to bring their cases to court. Reporter John Vidal, writing in Britain's Observer, quotes Nyikaw Ochalla from Ethiopia's Gambella region: "The foreign companies are arriving in large numbers, depriving people of land they have used for centuries. There is no consultation with the indigenous population. The deals are done secretly. The only thing the local people see is people coming with lots of tractors to invade their lands." Local hostility toward such land grabs is the rule, not the exception. In 2007, as food prices were starting to rise, China signed an agreement with the Philippines to lease 2.5 million acres of land slated for food crops that would be shipped home. Once word leaked, the public outcry -- much of it from Filipino farmers -- forced Manila to suspend the agreement. A similar uproar rocked Madagascar, where a South Korean firm, Daewoo Logistics, had pursued rights to more than 3 million acres of land. Word of the deal helped stoke a political furor that toppled the government and forced cancellation of the agreement. Indeed, few things are more likely to fuel insurgencies than taking land from people. Agricultural equipment is easily sabotaged. If ripe fields of grain are torched, they burn quickly. Not only are these deals risky, but foreign investors producing food in a country full of hungry people face another political question of how to get the grain out. Will villagers permit trucks laden with grain headed for port cities to proceed when they themselves may be on the verge of starvation? The potential for political instability in countries where villagers have lost their land and their livelihoods is high. Conflicts could easily develop between investor and host countries.
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"Military confrontation may be triggered by a desperate need for natural resources such as energy, food and water rather than by conflicts over ideology, religion or national honor." Environmental perils may soon dominate the world security agenda. This shift is due in part to the growing weight of evidence pointing to a significant human role in altering the planet's basic climate systems. , the greatest danger is not the degradation of ecosystems per se, but rather the disintegration of entire human societies, producing wholesale starvation, mass migrations and recurring conflict over resources. But these scenarios also envision the use of more deadly weapons. "In this world of warring states," the 2003 Pentagon report predicted, "nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable." As oil and natural gas disappears, more and more countries will rely on nuclear power to meet their energy needs -- and this "will accelerate nuclear proliferation as countries develop enrichment and reprocessing capabilities to ensure their national security."
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And global food crises cause geopolitical crises and conflict between major powers
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Geobotanical Institute ETH, Zurichbergstrasse 38, 8044 Zurich, Switzerland, “The value of biodiversity: Where ecology and economy blend, Elsevier Biological Conservation, Volume 83, Issue 3, March 1998, Pages 239–246, http://www.sciencedirect.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/science/article/pii/S0006320797001419) BC As problems of environmental change become more evident, we increasingly realize how much we depend upon wildlife for a wide range of so-called ecosystem services. These services, which include soil protection, pest control and the supply of clean water, are to a significant extent provided by natural and semi-natural ecosystems which in the past were thought to have little or no economic significance. This recognition has important implications for conservation. The emerging discipline of ecological economics provides methods for assessing the economic value of wildlife. While it is idle to pretend that the application of such methods will solve the biodiversity crisis, economic analysis can be useful in strengthening the case for conservation. Such analysis can demonstrate the potentially high economic value of wildlife, and reveal more clearly the economic and social pressures which threaten it. It is argued that while nature reserves and other protected areas will always be important, we must shift our attention increasingly to the preservation of biological diversity within the major forms of land-use. High priority must be given to finding ways of restoring biological diversity and enhancing ecosystem function in those areas which have already been seriously damaged. In these tasks ecological economics has an important role to play.
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Edwards and Abivardi 98(Peter J. Edwards & Cyrus Abivardi
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As problems of environmental change become more evident we realize how much we depend upon wildlife for ecosystem services These services include soil protection, pest control and clean water are provided by ecosystems which in the past were thought to have little or no economic significance. economic analysis can be useful in strengthening the case for conservation we must shift our attention increasingly to the preservation of biological diversity within the major forms of land-use ecological economics has an important role to play
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Conservation is economically significant
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Foster 00 (Gregory Foster, civilian professor at the National Defense University, September 2000, http://www.aepi.army.mil/internet/china-environmental-dragon.pdf) It has now been more than two decades since the Worldwatch Institute’s Lester Brown first issued a plea to adopt a new and more robust conception of national security attuned to the contemporary world. The threats to security, he argued even then, now may arise less from relations between nations than from man’s relations with nature—dwindling reserves of critical resources, for example, or the deterioration of earth’s biological systems: The military threat to national security is only one of many that governments must now address. The numerous new threats derive directly or indirectly from the rapidly changing relationship between humanity and the earth’s natural systems and resources. The unfolding stresses in this relationship initially manifest themselves as ecological stresses and resource scarcities. Later they translate into economic stresses—inflation, unemployment, capital scarcity, and monetary instability. Ultimately, these economic stresses convert into social unrest and political instability.1 Brown was followed—cautiously at first—by others who recognized the need not only to expand the bounds of national security thinking and discourse, but to take particular account of environmental concerns in such deliberations. Jessica Tuchman Mathews, then affiliated with the World Resources Institute, argued, for example: “Global developments now suggest the need for . . . [a] broadening definition of national security to include resource, environmental and demographic issues.”2 One of the most powerful observations made to date—one that could be judged, in equal measure, as either visionary or hyperbolic—is that by writer-analyst Milton Viorst, who argues that “population and environment . . . seem the obvious sources of the next wave of wars, perhaps major wars.”3…CONTINUES…Where Homer-Dixon is especially insightful is in leading us in the direction of the most powerful counterargument that can be made to resolute critics of environmental causation. He says that whereas, on first analysis, the main causes of civil strife appear to be social disruptions (e.g., poverty, migrations, ethnic tension, institutional breakdown), in reality scarcities of renewable resources, including water, fuelwood, cropland and fish, can precipitate these disruptions and thereby powerfully contribute to strife. By broadening his formulation, we may posit the existence of a more general masking phenomenon by which ostensibly political and economic causes of unrest, violence, conflict, and destabilization (e.g., political repression; economic deprivation, exploitation, and dislocation) actually may mask underlying, less visible, less discernible environmental sources of dissatisfaction, discontent, and alienation (e.g., diminished quality of life; threats to safety and well-being).
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Watts 10 (Jonathan Watts, award-winning journalist and president of the Foreign Correspondents' Club of China, “Biodiversity loss seen as greater financial risk than terrorism, says UN”, October 27, 2010, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/oct/27/biodiversity-loss-terrorism, MS) The financial risks posed by the loss of species and ecosystems have risen sharply and are becoming a greater concern for businesses than international terrorism, according to a United Nations report released today.¶ From over-depletion of fish stocks and soil degradation caused by agricultural chemicals to water shortages and mining pollution, the paper – commissioned by the UN Environment Programme and partners – said the likelihood has climbed sharply that declines in biodiversity would have a "severe" $10bn (£6bn) to $50bn impact on business.¶ With the European Union and other regions increasingly holding companies liable for impacts on ecosystem services, it suggests banks, investors and insurance companies are starting to calculate the losses that could arise from diminishing supplies, tightened conservation controls and the reputational damage caused by involvement in an unsound project.¶ Achim Steiner, UN under-secretary general and Unep executive director, said: "The kinds of emerging concerns and rising perception of risks underlines a fundamental sea change in the way some financial institutions, alongside natural resource-dependent companies, are now starting to glimpse and to factor in the economic importance of biodiversity and ecosystems".¶ The briefing paper cites the 55% crash of BP's share price and the decline of its credit rating in the wake of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill as an extreme example of the potential impact of inadequate environmental controls.¶ Richard Burrett, who co-chairs the Unep Finance Initiative and authored the report, said such cases highlighted the need for a new form of risk assessment that takes the value of ecological services into account. Water systems and forests are currently considered "externalities" that do not show up on corporate books. In the past year, he said, biodiversity loss is increasingly seen as a business concern and that a World Economic Forum survey in 2010, found it was perceived as a greater economic risk than international terrorism.¶ But he insisted this should be just the start. "The way we assess the performance of companies is flawed. It does not account for all externalities," said Burrett in releasing the briefing paper, which is aimed at executives and fund managers. "We believe we must bring these externalities into mainstream accounting."¶ For the report, the UN commissioned a study of 3,000 of the world's biggest corporations, which found them responsible for $2.15 trillion in environmental costs in 2008, equivalent to 7% of their combined revenues and about a third of their profits. Based on this figure, the report estimates that institutional investors with a $100m holding in a typical diversified equity fund could "own" $5.6m in external costs.¶ However, the authors note that awareness of biodiversity risks is still at an early stage, partly because they remain difficult to quantify. Concerns are clearly very different from nation to nation. This year, PwC conducted a separate study that found strong awareness of biodiversity risks among South American executives, but worldwide it said only two of the world's largest 100 companies saw loss of species and ecosystems as a strategic business risk.
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threats to security arise less from relations between nations than from relations with nature deterioration of earth’s biological systems numerous new threats derive from the earth’s natural systems unfolding stresses in this relationship initially manifest themselves as ecological stresses and resource scarcities. Later they translate into economic stresses these convert into social unrest and political instability Global developments now suggest the need for . broadening definition of national security environment . . . seem the obvious sources of the next wave of wars, perhaps major wars whereas the main causes of civil strife appear to be social disruptions poverty institutional breakdown in reality scarcities of resources can precipitate these disruptions and thereby powerfully contribute to strife. we may posit the existence of a more general masking phenomenon by which ostensibly political and economic causes of conflict actually may mask underlying, less visible, less discernible environmental sources of dissatisfaction
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Biodiversity loss causes monetary losses – Turns case
| 2,978 | 53 | 1,043 | 410 | 8 | 148 | 0.019512 | 0.360976 |
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Pollution: human activity influences the natural environment producing negative, direct or indirect, effects that alter the flow of energy, the chemical and physical constitution of the environment and abundance of the species; Climate change: for example, heating of the Earth’s surface affects biodiversity because it endangers all the species that adapted to the cold due to the latitude (the Polar species) or the altitude (mountain species). Overexploitation of resources: when the activities connected with capturing and harvesting (hunting, fishing, farming) a renewable natural resource in a particular area is excessively intense, the resource itself may become exhausted, as for example, is the case of sardines, herrings, cod, tuna and many other species that man captures without leaving enough time for the organisms to reproduce.
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Eniscuola 13 (The Eniscuola project was created by eni together with the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in 2000. Its goal is to give students qualified extensive information on energy and environment issues. The Eniscuola project has been acknowledged by UNESCO’s Italian National Commission and is part of the U.N.’s Decade of Education for Sustainable Development, by contributing to spread its goals and ideals, “Causes of the Loss of Biodiversity”, May 2013, http://www.eniscuola.net/en/life/contenuti/biodiversity/left/loss-of-biodiversity/causes-of-the-loss-of-biodiversity/) BC The main cause of the loss of biodiversity can be attributed to the influence of human beings on the world’s ecosystem, In fact human beings have deeply altered the environment, and have modified the territory, exploiting the species directly, for example by fishing and hunting, changing the biogeochemical cycles and transferring species from one area to another of the Planet. The threats to biodiversity can be summarized in the following main points: Alteration and loss of the habitats: the transformation of the natural areas determines not only the loss of the vegetable species, but also a decrease in the animal species associated to them. Refer to “Alteration and loss of the habitats”. Introduction of exotic species and genetically modified organisms; species originating from a particular area, introduced into new natural environments can lead to different forms of imbalance in the ecological equilibrium. Refer to, “Introduction of exotic species and genetically modified organisms”.
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Pollution influences the natural environment producing negative effects that alter the flow of energy the chemical and physical constitution of the environment Climate change heating of the Earth’s surface affects biodiversity ecause it endangers all the species adapted to the cold Overexploitation of resources
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Biodiversity loss inevitable- Five warrants
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Phys Org 10 (PhysOrg is a science, research and technology news website specializing in the hard science subjects of physics, space and earth science, biology, chemistry, electronics, nanotechnology and technology in general. It is known for timely updates of scientific breakthroughs and press releases from major research labs and universities across the world. The site also publishes daily reports,[1] blogs and exclusive comprehensive articles[2] on new peer-reviewed scientific papers. It also runs the website MedicalxPress, which features medical news stories.“Continuing biodiversity loss predicted but could be slowed” October 26, 2010, http://phys.org/news/2010-10-biodiversity-loss.html#nRlv)BC A new analysis of several major global studies of future species shifts and losses foresees inevitable continuing decline of biodiversity during the 21st century but offers new hope that it could be slowed if emerging policy choices are pursued. Led by experts Henrique Miguel Pereira and Paul Leadley, the 23-member scientific team from nine countries, under the auspices of DIVERSITAS, UNEP-WCMC and the secretariat of the CBD compared results from five recent global environmental assessments and a wide range of peer-reviewed literature examining likely future changes in biodiversity. Published today in the journal Science, the analysis found universal agreement across the studies that fundamental changes are needed in society to avoid high risk of extinctions, declining populations in many species, and large scale shifts in species distributions in the future Says Dr. Leadley, of the University Paris-Sud, France: "There is no question that business-as-usual development pathways will lead to catastrophic biodiversity loss. Even optimistic scenarios for this century consistently predict extinctions and shrinking populations of many species." He notes that the target of stopping biodiversity loss by 2020 "sounds good, but sadly isn't realistic." Among the brightest spots of hope: recent scenarios show that slowing climate change and deforestation can go hand-in-hand to reduce biodiversity loss thanks to "significant opportunities to intervene through better policies, such as those aimed at mitigating climate change without massive conversion of forests to biofuel plantations" says Dr. Leadley. But action must be taken quickly, as the study indicates the window of opportunity is closing rapidly, as differences in policy action taken now could either lead to an increase in global forest cover of about 15% in the best case or losses of more than 10% in the worst case by 2030. The authors say the creation of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-like mechanism for biodiversity (to be called the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services -- IPBES) is "extremely important" for achieving commonly-agreed definitions and indicators for biodiversity and to inform decision making."The issues are so urgent and the stakes for humanity so important, scientists need to coalesce through the IPBES to inform policy-makers with a unified, authoritative voice," states Dr. Pereira, of the Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal.IPBES could also play an important role in organizing the scientific co-operation to reduce uncertainty in biodiversity scenarios. Models foresee extinction rates ranging from less than 1% per century (close to the current rate of extinctions) to more than 50%. "The degree of both land use and climate change explains a substantial fraction of the range of projected extinctions, but incomplete understanding of species ecology is also an important source of uncertainty," says Dr. Leadley. Among the key issues is the lack of consensus defining the length of time involved in species' extinction - which may be decades or millennia - leading to "considerable uncertainty in models and substantial disagreement within scientific community concerning the likelihood of massive extinctions over the coming century." Furthermore, the researchers note that changes in species distributions and population sizes should receive more attention because they are likely more critical to human well-being and better short-term indicators of the pressures of humans on ecosystems.For example the continuing overall decline in populations of large-bodied fish species due to over-fishing, the poleward migration of marine species at a rate of more than 40 km per decade due to climate change, and the 10 to 20% decline in the abundance of terrestrial species by mid-century primarily due to land-use change.The analysis also concludes that the difficulty of trade-offs between meeting human wants and needs and protecting biodiversity is likely to intensify."Future extinctions risks are projected to be high, but the biodiversity crisis is much more than extinctions," says Dr. Pereira. "Much of what will happen to biodiversity in 21st century is not global extinctions, but major changes in the abundance of species and the composition of communities".
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UPI 11 (Since 1907, United Press International (UPI) has been a leading provider of critical information to media outlets, businesses, governments and researchers worldwide. UPI is a global operation with offices in Beirut, Hong Kong, London, Santiago, Seoul and Tokyo. Our headquarters is located in downtown Washington, DC, surrounded by major international policy-making governmental and non-governmental organizations. “Ongoing global biodiversity loss unstoppable with protected areas alone”, August 8, 2011 http://www.lexisnexis.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/hottopics/lnacademic/) BC Continued reliance on a strategy of setting aside land and marine territories as "protected areas" is insufficient to stem global biodiversity loss, according to a comprehensive assessment published in the journal Marine Ecology Progress Series. Despite impressively rapid growth of protected land and marine areas worldwide - today totalling over 100,000 in number and covering 17 million square kilometers of land and 2 million square kilometers of oceans - biodiversity is in steep decline. Expected scenarios of human population growth and consumption levels indicate that cumulative human demands will impose an unsustainable toll on the Earth's ecological resources and services accelerating the rate at which biodiversity is being loss. Current and future human requirements will also exacerbate the challenge of effectively implementing protected areas while suggesting that effective biodiversity conservation requires new approaches that address underlying causes of biodiversity loss - including the growth of both human population and resource consumption.Says lead author Camilo Mora of University of Hawaii at Manoa: "Biodiversity is humanity's life-support system, delivering everything from food, to clean water and air, to recreation and tourism, to novel chemicals that drive our advanced civilization. Yet there is an increasingly well-documented global trend in biodiversity loss, triggered by a host of human activities." "Ongoing biodiversity loss and its consequences for humanity's welfare are of great concern and have prompted strong calls for expanding the use of protected areas as a remedy," says fellow author Peter F. Sale, Assistant Director of the United Nations University's Canadian-based Institute for Water, Environment and Health. "While many protected areas have helped preserve some species at local scales, promotion of this strategy as a global solution to biodiversity loss, and the advocacy of protection for specific proportions of habitats, have occurred without adequate assessment of their potential effectiveness in achieving the goal." Drs. Mora and Sale warn that long-term failure of the protected areas strategy could erode public and political support for biodiversity conservation and that the disproportionate allocation of available resources and human capital into this strategy precludes the development of more effective approaches. The authors based their study on existing literature and global data on human threats and biodiversity loss."The global network of protected areas is a major achievement, and the pace at which it has been achieved is impressive," says Dr. Sale. "Protected areas are very useful conservation tools, but unfortunately, the steep continuing rate of biodiversity loss signals the need to reassess our heavy reliance on this strategy." The study says continuing heavy reliance on the protected areas strategy has five key technical and practical limitations: + Expected growth in protected area coverage is too slow While over 100,000 areas are now protected worldwide, strict enforcement occurs on just 5.8% of land and 0.08% of ocean. At current rates, it will take between 185 years in the case of land and 80 years for oceans to cover 30% of the world's ecosystems with protected areas - a minimum target widely advocated for effective biodiversity conservation. This slow pace contrasts sharply with the rapid growth of threats, including climate change, habitat loss and resource exploitation, predicted to cause the extinction of many species even before 2050. + The size and connectivity of protected areas are inadequate To ensure species' survival, protected areas must be sufficiently large to sustain viable populations in the face of the inevitable mortality of some individuals trespassing their borders, and areas must be close enough together for a healthy exchange of individuals among protected populations. Globally, however, over 30% of the protected areas in the ocean, and 60% on land are smaller than 1 square kilometer - too small for many larger species. And they tend to be too far apart to allow a sufficient exchange among populations for most species. + Protected areas only ameliorate certain human threats Biodiversity loss is triggered by a host of human stressors including habitat loss, overexploitation, climate change, pollution and invasive species. Yet protected areas are useful primarily against overexploitation and habitat loss. Since the remaining stressors are just as deleterious, biodiversity can be expected to continue declining as it has done until now. The study shows that approximately 83% of protected areas on the sea and 95% of protected areas on land are located in areas with continuing high impact from multiple human stressors. + Underfunding Global expenditures on protected areas today are estimated at US $6 billion per year and many areas are insufficiently funded for effective management. Effectively managing existing protected areas requires an estimated $24 billion per year - four times current expenditure. Despite strong advocacy for protected areas, budget growth has been slow and it seems unlikely that it will be possible to raise funding appropriate for effective management as well as for creation of the additional protected areas as is advocated. + Conflicts with human development Humanity's footprint on Earth is ever expanding in efforts to meet basic needs like housing and food. If it did prove possible to place the recommended 30% of world habitats under protection, intense conflicts with competing human interests are inevitable - many people would be displaced and livelihoods impaired. Forcing a trade-off between human development and sustaining biodiversity is unlikely to lead to a solution with biodiversity preserved. Concludes Dr. Mora: "Given the considerable effort and widespread support for the creation of protected areas over the past 30 years, we were surprised to find so much evidence for their failure to effectively address the global problem of biodiversity loss. Clearly, the biodiversity loss problem has been underestimated and the ability of protected areas to solve this problem overestimated."The authors underline the correlations between growing world population, natural resources consumption and biodiversity loss to suggest that biodiversity loss is unlikely to be stemmed without directly addressing the ecological footprint of humanity. Based upon previous research, the study shows that under current conditions of human comsumption and conservative scenarios of human population growth, the cummulative use of natural resources of humanity will amount to the productivity of up to 27 Earths by 2050."Protected areas are a valuable tool in the fight to preserve biodiversity. We need them to be well managed, and we need more of them, but they alone cannot solve our biodiversity problems," adds Dr. Mora. "We need to recognize this limitation promptly and to allocate more time and effort to the complicated issue of human overpopulation and consumption." "Our study shows that the international community is faced with a choice between two paths," Dr. Sale says. "One option is to continue a narrow focus on creating more protected areas with little evidence that they curtail biodiversity loss. That path will fail. The other path requires that we get serious about addressing the growth in size and consumption rate of our global population."
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A new analysis of several major global studies of future species shifts and losses foresees inevitable continuing decline of biodiversity during the 21st century fundamental changes are needed in society to avoid high risk of extinctions, declining populations in many species, and large scale shifts in species distributions in the future There is no question that business-as-usual development pathways will lead to catastrophic biodiversity loss. action must be taken quickly, as the study indicates the window of opportunity is closing rapidly Future extinctions risks are projected to be high, but the biodiversity crisis is much more than extinctions
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Even Despite protected areas, Biodiversity loss continues
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Senior Research and Development Engineer, Laboratory for Restorative Neurotechnology (BrainGate) at Brown University, “UN study says biodiversity loss unstoppable with protected areas alone”, July 28, 2012, http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2011/07/28/18686337.php , MS) The study says continuing heavy reliance on the protected areas strategy has five key technical and practical limitations. The first of these limitations is that "protected areas only ameliorate certain human threats." ¶ "Biodiversity loss is triggered by a host of human stressors including habitat loss, overexploitation, climate change, pollution and invasive species," according to the study. "Yet protected areas are useful primarily against overexploitation and habitat loss. Since the remaining stressors are just as deleterious, biodiversity can be expected to continue declining as it has done until now. The study shows that approximately 83% of protected areas on the sea and 95% of protected areas on land are located in areas with continuing high impact from multiple human stressors." ¶ This conclusion by the scientists echoes one of the key criticisms of California's Marine Life Protection Act (MLPA) Initiative - the "marine protected areas" created by this widely-contested process don't comprehensively protect the ocean from the main threats to the ocean and marine life in California. These threats include massive water diversions out of the Bay-Delta Estuary, water pollution, oil spills and drilling, wave and wind energy projects, military testing, habitat destruction and all other human impacts other than sustainable fishing and gathering. ¶ Ironically, even before the imposition of these largely redundant ocean closures that are now being contested by coalition of fishing organizations in court, California marine and anadromous fisheries had the strictest recreational and commercial fishing regulations on the entire planet. MLPA advocates refuse to acknowledge the existence of one of the largest marine protected areas in the world, the Rockfish Conservation Area, that encompass the entire continental shelf of California from the Oregon border to the Mexican border! ¶ A second limitation cited in the study is "underfunding." "Global expenditures on protected areas today are estimated at US $6 billion per year and many areas are insufficiently funded for effective management," the assessment notes. ¶ "Effectively managing existing protected areas requires an estimated $24 billion per year - four times current expenditure. Despite strong advocacy for protected areas, budget growth has been slow and it seems unlikely that it will be possible to raise funding appropriate for effective management as well as for creation of the additional protected areas as is advocated," according to the report. ¶ Again, the assessment echoes the criticism by fishermen and grassroots environmentalists that there is not sufficient funding for enforcement of new marine protected areas (MPAs) under the Marine Life Protection Act Initiative. The game wardens refer to these new MPAs as "marine poaching areas," since they will only spread a force of wardens already unable to effectively monitor existing reserves even thinner. In fact, Jerry Karnow, the president of the California Fish and Game Wardens Association, has repeatedly asked the California Fish and Game Commission to not create new marine protected areas unless sufficient funding is provided to hire new wardens. ¶ The three other limitations pinpointed by the scientists are: ¶ • the expected growth in protected area coverage is too slow ¶ • the size and connectivity of protected areas are inadequate ¶ • conflicts with human development.
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Bacher 12 (Dan Bacher, Founder & Executive Director at SpeakYourMind Foundation
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The study says heavy reliance on the protected areas strategy has five key technical and practical limitations. The first of these limitations is that "protected areas only ameliorate certain human threats." Biodiversity loss is triggered by a host of human stressors including habitat loss, overexploitation, climate change, pollution and invasive species A second limitation cited in the study is "underfunding." "Global expenditures on protected areas today are estimated at US $6 billion per year and many areas are insufficiently funded for effective management," managing existing protected areas requires an estimated $24 billion per year - four times current expenditure The three other limitations pinpointed by the scientists are: • the expected growth in protected area coverage is too slow • the size and connectivity of protected areas are inadequate • conflicts with human development.
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Biodiversity loss inevitable – 5 warrants prove
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http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL33244_20060118.pdf) BC Established under the North American Free Trade Agreement of 1993, the Border Environment Cooperation Commission is a joint U.S.-Mexico international organization with a mandate to assist border communities in developing environmental infrastructure projects, and to certify the feasibility of these projects for the purpose of receiving loans from the sister institution, the North American Development Bank (NADBank). The BECC is governed by a Board of Directors, with members fromU.S. and Mexican public and private sectors, and is located in Ciudad Juarez,Chihuahua. In 2004, the mandate of the BECC and NADBank were expanded toinclude communities in Mexico up to 300 kilometers from the border, and toestablish a joint Board of Directors for both institutions. Funding for the U.S. sidecomes from the International Commissions section of the Department of State appropriation in the Commerce, State, Justice Appropriations. The BECC has alsoreceived funds directly from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Mexico’s Ministry of Social Development (SEDESOL), and has provided more than $30.2 million to aid in the development of 230 water, sewage, and municipal wasteprojects in 131 communities on both sides of the border. Since the establishment of the BECC, it has certified 105 environmental infrastructure projects for funding in Mexico and the United States worth $2.4 billion. Established by the trilateral North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) of 1993, a companion side agreement to NAFTA, the Commission was formed to strengthen environmental cooperation between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, and to consider complaints of non-compliance with environmental law brought by various non-governmental groups. The Commission is governed by aCouncil composed of the environment ministers (or alternative representatives ) from each of the three countries, who receive outside input from National Advisory Committees, Governmental Advisory Committees and the Joint Public Advisory Committee (JPAC). At the most recent Commission meeting, on June 22, 2005, the Ministers adopted the Strategic Plan 2005-2010 for cooperating on environmental protection matters. More recently, the Commission, in November 2005, issued the first ever trinational conservation plans for six wildlife species, and in December 2005, made public the factual record developed in response to a Mexican nongovernmental organization’s complaint that Mexico was failing to enforce environmental laws in the Sierra Tarahumara.13
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Storrs 6 (K. Larry Storrs Specialist in Latin American Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, CRS Report for Congress, “Mexico’s Importance and Multiple Relationships with the United States” January 18, 2006
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the Border Environment Cooperation Commission is a joint U.S.-Mexico international organization with a mandate to assist border communities in developing environmental infrastructure projects, Since the establishment of the BECC, it has certified 105 environmental infrastructure projects for funding in Mexico and the United States worth $2.4 billion. the trilateral North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) of 1993, a companion side agreement to NAFTA, the Commission was formed to strengthen environmental cooperation to consider complaints of non-compliance with environmental law brought by various non-governmental groups the Commission issued the first ever trinational conservation plans for six wildlife species, and in December 2005, made public the factual record developed in response to a Mexican nongovernmental organization’s complaint that Mexico was failing to enforce environmental laws
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Structures in place to curb Environmental Impacts
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Sadowksi 12 (Richard – Managing Editor of Production of the Journal of International Business and Law Vol. X, J.D Candidate at Hofstra University, “Cuban Offshore Drilling: Preparation and Prevention within the Framework of the United States’ Embargo”, 2012, http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1497&context=sdlp) Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the United States and the prohibition on U.S. technology transfer are overblown. Cuba has at least as much incentive to ensure safe-drilling practices as does the United States, and reports indicate that Cuba is taking safety seriously. 64 Lee Hunt, President of the Houston-based International Association of Drilling Contractors, said, “[t]he Cuban oil industry has put a lot of research, study and thought into what will be required to safely drill,” and that “they are very knowledgeable of international industry practices and have incorporated many of these principles into their safety and regulatory planning and requirements.” 65 Thus, while the economic embargo of Cuba restricts American technology from being uti - lized, foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives. 66
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Clayton and Bert 12 (March 2012, Captain Melissa Bert and Blake Clayton, Council on Foreign Relations Press, “Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill Policy Innovation Memorandum No. 15,” http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515, is a military fellow (U.S. Coast Guard) at the Council on Foreign Relations, Blake Clayton is fellow for energy and national security at the Council on Foreign Relations. He received a doctorate from Oxford University, where he studied business economics and strategy. The recipient of the University of Chicago Endowed Fellowship, he holds dual master's degrees from the University of Chicago and Cambridge University. He is a regular contributor to Forbes.com.) The imminent drilling of Cuba's first offshore oil well raises the prospect of a large-scale oil spill in Cuban waters washing onto U.S. shores. Washington should anticipate this possibility by implementing policies that would help both countries' governments stem and clean up an oil spill effectively. These policies should ensure that both the U.S. government and the domestic oil industry are operationally and financially ready to deal with any spill that threatens U.S. waters. These policies should be as minimally disruptive as possible to the country's broader Cuba strategy. The Problem A Chinese-built semisubmersible oil rig leased by Repsol, a Spanish oil company, arrived in Cuban waters in January 2012 to drill Cuba's first exploratory offshore oil well. Early estimates suggest that Cuban offshore oil and natural gas reserves are substantial—somewhere between five billion and twenty billion barrels of oil and upward of eight billion cubic feet of natural gas. Although the United States typically welcomes greater volumes of crude oil coming from countries that are not members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a surge in Cuban oil production would complicate the United States' decades-old effort to economically isolate the Castro regime. Deepwater drilling off the Cuban coast also poses a threat to the United States. The exploratory well is seventy miles off the Florida coast and lies at a depth of 5,800 feet. The failed Macondo well that triggered the calamitous Deepwater Horizon oil spill in April 2010 had broadly similar features, situated forty-eight miles from shore and approximately five thousand feet below sea level. A spill off Florida's coast could ravage the state's $57 billion per year tourism industry. Washington cannot count on the technical know-how of Cuba's unseasoned oil industry to address a spill on its own. Oil industry experts doubt that it has a strong understanding of how to prevent an offshore oil spill or stem a deep-water well blowout. Moreover, the site where the first wells will be drilled is a tough one for even seasoned response teams to operate in. Unlike the calm Gulf of Mexico, the surface currents in the area where Repsol will be drilling move at a brisk three to four knots, which would bring oil from Cuba's offshore wells to the Florida coast within six to ten days. Skimming or burning the oil may not be feasible in such fast-moving water. The most, and possibly only, effective method to respond to a spill would be surface and subsurface dispersants. If dispersants are not applied close to the source within four days after a spill, uncontained oil cannot be dispersed, burnt, or skimmed, which would render standard response technologies like containment booms ineffective. Repsol has been forthcoming in disclosing its spill response plans to U.S. authorities and allowing them to inspect the drilling rig, but the Russian and Chinese companies that are already negotiating with Cuba to lease acreage might not be as cooperative. Had Repsol not volunteered to have the Cuba-bound drilling rig examined by the U.S. Coast Guard and Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement to certify that it met international standards, Washington would have had little legal recourse. The complexity of U.S.-Cuba relations since the 1962 trade embargo complicates even limited efforts to put in place a spill response plan. Under U.S. law and with few exceptions, American companies cannot assist the Cuban government or provide equipment to foreign companies operating in Cuban territory. Shortfalls in U.S. federal regulations governing commercial liability for oil spills pose a further problem. The Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90) does not protect U.S. citizens and property against damages stemming from a blown-out wellhead outside of U.S. territory. In the case of Deepwater Horizon, BP was liable despite being a foreign company because it was operating within the United States. Were any of the wells that Repsol drills to go haywire, the cost of funding a response would fall to the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund (OSLTF), which is woefully undercapitalized. OPA 90 limits the OSLTF from paying out more than $50 million in a fiscal year on oil removal costs, subject to a few exceptions, and requires congressional appropriation to pay out more than $150 million.
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Fears that Cuban offshore drilling poses serious environmental threats because of the proximity to the U S and the prohibition on U.S. technology transfer are overblown Cuba has at least as much incentive to ensure safe-drilling practices as does the U S reports indicate that Cuba is taking safety seriously. he Cuban oil industry has put a lot of research, study and thought into what will be required to safely drill they are very knowledgeable of international industry practices and have incorporated many of these principles safety and regulatory planning and requirements foreign sources have provided supplemental alternatives
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Repsol drilling in Cuba makes spills inevitable – the US increasing economic engagement and taking away the embargo is key to solve
| 1,237 | 132 | 634 | 172 | 22 | 98 | 0.127907 | 0.569767 |
Environment Disadvantage - Northwestern 2013 4WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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1,732 |
University of California, “Environmental Regulation and Economic Integration”, Prepared for a Workshop on Regulatory Competition and Economic Integration: Comparative Perspectives Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy October 1999, http://iatp.org/files/Environmental_Regulation_and_Economic_Integrat.pdf)BC Contrary to the fears of many environmentalists, increased economic interdependence has not led to a weakening of either product or process environmental standards.1International trade as a proportion of GNP has significantly increased in every industrial nation since the late 1960s, yet during this same period, environmental regulations have become progressively stricter in all industrial nations and a number of ndustrializing ones as well.2Virtually all nations now devote substantially more resources both in absolute and relative terms to environmental protection than they did in 1970.Since the early 1970s few major economies have experienced a greater increase in their exposure to the global economy than the United States: between 1970 and 19803 both its imports and exports as a share of GNP more than doubled.3At the same time, American regulatory standards have become substantially stronger during the last quarter century. The proportion of America's GNP devoted to pollution control stood at 1.5% in 1972; it has been higher every year since, averaging more than 1.7% between 1980 and 1986 and increasing to 2.2% in 1992.4 Annual expenditures on compliance with federal environmental regulations totaled $90 billion in 1990 and increased by approximately $30 billion following passage of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments.5In Europe, the goal of creating a single market was in large measure motivated bythe interests of business managers and political leaders in making European industry more competitive in the global economy. Yet the Single European Act also authorized and has contributed to a significant strengthening of EU environmental regulations. In recent years, the EU has emerged as the world's pace-setter for environmental innovation, led by Germany, its largest and most important member state. Since the early 1970s Japan has been both a major international exporter and has significantly increased its environmental expenditures.6The strengthening of domestic environmental standards has not been confined to the world's richest nations. In recent years, Taiwan, South Korea. Israel and Singapore - all major exporters - have committed substantially more resources to environmental protection.7The compatibility between increased exposure to the global economy and the strengthening of domestic regulatory efforts is also borne out by the experience ofMexico. Since 1986, Mexico has significantly opened its economy, while between 1988 and 1991, government spending on environmental protection increased ten fold.8The United States itself provides the clearest example of the compatibility of strict4 regulatory standards and economic interdependence 9 However it is important to note that concerns about the impact ofenvironmental regulation on firm growth, profitability and employment would exist evenin the absence of pressures from foreign competitors. Strategic considerations are not the only reason why a government might hesitate to impose stricter environmental standards on domestic firms.13 In short, an increasingly integrated and competitive global economy has not interfered with the ability of many governments to enact both product and process regulations regulations stricter than those of their trading partners. Why hasn’t increased regional and international integration not led regions, nations, or sub-national governments to compete with one another by enacting less stringent environmental regulations? How can we account for this phenomena? For example, why did the Single European Act, which was primarily enacted to strengthen the competitiveness of European firms, also contain provisions facilitating the6 strengthening of European environmental standards? Why have various Member States sought to impose stricter environmental standards than those of other Member States with whose products they compete? Why have many American states enacted more demanding environmental standards than those of other states? Why have those central European nations who have applied for membership in the EU strengthened their environmental standards? Why did Mexico both strengthen its environmental standards and improve their enforcement prior to opening up its market to Canadian and American products? One important reason is that for all but a handful of industries, the costs of compliance with stricter regulatory standards have not been sufficient to force relatively affluent nations or sub-national governments to choose between competitiveness and environmental protection. In marked contrast to labor costs, the overall costs of compliance with environmental regulations have to date been modest. According toMartin Houldin, the environmental director at the consulting firm KPMG Peat Marwick in London, "The international differences in the cost of labor are generally so much more important that the environment pales into insignificance.14 This is not to say that such7 costs are non-existent: many expenditures to improve environmental quality do reduce output and lower the rate of productivity growth and employment and in particularsectors these burdens can be severe.15 But in the aggregate, increases in national levels of pollution-control expenditures have had little effect on the growth of economic output.16Nor have American states with stronger environmental policies experienced inferior ratesof economic growth and development.17 While production standards obviously can and do affect corporate plant location decisions, for most industries the effects are not significant.18"22 In addition, just as industrial production often imposes public costs, so doprotective regulations produce public benefits. Thus expenditures on air pollution mayincrease agricultural output while improvements in water quality may result in betterfishing yields or increased tourism. Equally importantly, improvements in environmentalquality can improve the health, and thus the productivity, of a nation's work-force, in Not only has national, regional and international competition not forced aweakening of environmental standards, but in some respects, economic openness andcapital mobility have actually encouraged nations to enact higher standards than theywould have in the absence of increased economic interdependency.There are a number of ways in which open markets can strengthen regulatory
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Vogel 99 (David Vogel Haas School of Business
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Contrary to the fears of many environmentalists, increased economic interdependence has not led to a weakening of either product or process environmental standards trade as a proportion of GNP has significantly increased in every industrial nation since the late 1960s during this same period, environmental regulations have become progressively stricter in all industrial nations nations now devote more resources to environmental protection Since the 70s few major economies have experienced a greater increase in their exposure to the global economy than the U St At the same time regulatory standards have become substantially stronger during the last quarter century In Europe the Single European Act also authorized and has contributed to a significant strengthening of EU environmental regulations the EU has emerged as the world's pace-setter for environmental innovation Japan has been both a major international exporter and has significantly increased its environmental expenditures strengthening of domestic environmental standards has not been confined to the world's richest nations Taiwan, South Korea. Israel and Singapore - all major exporters - have committed substantially more resources to environmental protection Mexico has significantly opened its economy, while between 1988 and 1991, government spending on environmental protection increased ten fold Why hasn’t increased regional and international integration not led regions, nations, or sub-national governments to compete with one another by enacting less stringent environmental regulations for all but a handful of industries, the costs of compliance with stricter regulatory standards have not been sufficient to force relatively affluent nations or sub-national governments to choose between competitiveness and environmental protection. the overall costs of compliance with environmental regulations have to date been modest increases in national levels of pollution-control expenditures have had little effect on the growth of economic output for most industries the effects are not significant economic openness andcapital mobility have actually encouraged nations to enact higher standards than theywould have in the absence of increased economic interdependency
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EE does not lead to environmental destruction, and as LA countries develop economic independence, environmental reforms will follow
| 6,676 | 131 | 2,249 | 933 | 18 | 315 | 0.019293 | 0.337621 |
Environment Disadvantage - Northwestern 2013 4WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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1,733 |
Sagoff 97 (Mark, Senior Research Scholar @ Institute for Philosophy and Public policy in School of Public Affairs @ U. Maryland, William and Mary Law Review, “INSTITUTE OF BILL OF RIGHTS LAW SYMPOSIUM DEFINING TAKINGS: PRIVATE PROPERTY AND THE FUTURE OF GOVERNMENT REGULATION: MUDDLE OR MUDDLE THROUGH? TAKINGS JURISPRUDENCE MEETS THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT”, 38 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 825, March, L/N) Although one may agree with ecologists such as Ehrlich and Raven that the earth stands on the brink of an episode of massive extinction, it may not follow from this grim fact that human beings will suffer as a result. On the contrary, skeptics such as science writer Colin Tudge have challenged biologists to explain why we need more than a tenth of the 10 to 100 million species that grace the earth. Noting that "cultivated systems often out-produce wild systems by 100-fold or more," Tudge declared that "the argument that humans need the variety of other species is, when you think about it, a theological one." n343 Tudge observed that "the elimination of all but a tiny minority of our fellow creatures does not affect the material well-being of humans one iota." n344 This skeptic challenged ecologists to list more than 10,000 species (other than unthreatened microbes) that are essential to ecosystem productivity or functioning. n345 "The human species could survive just as well if 99.9% of our fellow creatures went extinct, provided only that we retained the appropriate 0.1% that we need." n346 [*906] The monumental Global Biodiversity Assessment ("the Assessment") identified two positions with respect to redundancy of species. "At one extreme is the idea that each species is unique and important, such that its removal or loss will have demonstrable consequences to the functioning of the community or ecosystem." n347 The authors of the Assessment, a panel of eminent ecologists, endorsed this position, saying it is "unlikely that there is much, if any, ecological redundancy in communities over time scales of decades to centuries, the time period over which environmental policy should operate." n348 These eminent ecologists rejected the opposing view, "the notion that species overlap in function to a sufficient degree that removal or loss of a species will be compensated by others, with negligible overall consequences to the community or ecosystem." n349 Other biologists believe, however, that species are so fabulously redundant in the ecological functions they perform that the life-support systems and processes of the planet and ecological processes in general will function perfectly well with fewer of them, certainly fewer than the millions and millions we can expect to remain even if every threatened organism becomes extinct. n350 Even the kind of sparse and miserable world depicted in the movie Blade Runner could provide a "sustainable" context for the human economy as long as people forgot their aesthetic and moral commitment to the glory and beauty of the natural world. n351 The Assessment makes this point. "Although any ecosystem contains hundreds to thousands of species interacting among themselves and their physical environment, the emerging consensus is that the system is driven by a small number of . . . biotic variables on whose interactions the balance of species are, in a sense, carried along." n352 [*907] To make up your mind on the question of the functional redundancy of species, consider an endangered species of bird, plant, or insect and ask how the ecosystem would fare in its absence. The fact that the creature is endangered suggests an answer: it is already in limbo as far as ecosystem processes are concerned. What crucial ecological services does the black-capped vireo, for example, serve? Are any of the species threatened with extinction necessary to the provision of any ecosystem service on which humans depend? If so, which ones are they? Ecosystems and the species that compose them have changed, dramatically, continually, and totally in virtually every part of the United States. There is little ecological similarity, for example, between New England today and the land where the Pilgrims died. n353 In view of the constant reconfiguration of the biota, one may wonder why Americans have not suffered more as a result of ecological catastrophes. The cast of species in nearly every environment changes constantly-local extinction is commonplace in nature-but the crops still grow. Somehow, it seems, property values keep going up on Martha's Vineyard in spite of the tragic disappearance of the heath hen. One might argue that the sheer number and variety of creatures available to any ecosystem buffers that system against stress. Accordingly, we should be concerned if the "library" of creatures ready, willing, and able to colonize ecosystems gets too small. (Advances in genetic engineering may well permit us to write a large number of additions to that "library.") In the United States as in many other parts of the world, however, the number of species has been increasing dramatically, not decreasing, as a result of human activity. This is because the hordes of exotic species coming into ecosystems in the United States far exceed the number of species that are becoming extinct. Indeed, introductions may outnumber extinctions by more than ten to one, so that the United States is becoming more and more species-rich all the time largely as a result of human action. n354 [*908] Peter Vitousek and colleagues estimate that over 1000 non-native plants grow in California alone; in Hawaii there are 861; in Florida, 1210. n355 In Florida more than 1000 non-native insects, 23 species of mammals, and about 11 exotic birds have established themselves. n356 Anyone who waters a lawn or hoes a garden knows how many weeds desire to grow there, how many birds and bugs visit the yard, and how many fungi, creepy-crawlies, and other odd life forms show forth when it rains. All belong to nature, from wherever they might hail, but not many homeowners would claim that there are too few of them. Now, not all exotic species provide ecosystem services; indeed, some may be disruptive or have no instrumental value. n357 This also may be true, of course, of native species as well, especially because all exotics are native somewhere. Certain exotic species, however, such as Kentucky blue grass, establish an area's sense of identity and place; others, such as the green crabs showing up around Martha's Vineyard, are nuisances. n358 Consider an analogy [*909] with human migration. Everyone knows that after a generation or two, immigrants to this country are hard to distinguish from everyone else. The vast majority of Americans did not evolve here, as it were, from hominids; most of us "came over" at one time or another. This is true of many of our fellow species as well, and they may fit in here just as well as we do. It is possible to distinguish exotic species from native ones for a period of time, just as we can distinguish immigrants from native-born Americans, but as the centuries roll by, species, like people, fit into the landscape or the society, changing and often enriching it. Shall we have a rule that a species had to come over on the Mayflower, as so many did, to count as "truly" American? Plainly not. When, then, is the cutoff date? Insofar as we are concerned with the absolute numbers of "rivets" holding ecosystems together, extinction seems not to pose a general problem because a far greater number of kinds of mammals, insects, fish, plants, and other creatures thrive on land and in water in America today than in prelapsarian times. n359 The Ecological Society of America has urged managers to maintain biological diversity as a critical component in strengthening ecosystems against disturbance. n360 Yet as Simon Levin observed, "much of the detail about species composition will be irrelevant in terms of influences on ecosystem properties." n361 [*910] He added: "For net primary productivity, as is likely to be the case for any system property, biodiversity matters only up to a point; above a certain level, increasing biodiversity is likely to make little difference." n362 What about the use of plants and animals in agriculture? There is no scarcity foreseeable. "Of an estimated 80,000 types of plants [we] know to be edible," a U.S. Department of the Interior document says, "only about 150 are extensively cultivated." n363 About twenty species, not one of which is endangered, provide ninety percent of the food the world takes from plants. n364 Any new food has to take "shelf space" or "market share" from one that is now produced. Corporations also find it difficult to create demand for a new product; for example, people are not inclined to eat paw-paws, even though they are delicious. It is hard enough to get people to eat their broccoli and lima beans. It is harder still to develop consumer demand for new foods. This may be the reason the Kraft Corporation does not prospect in remote places for rare and unusual plants and animals to add to the world's diet. Of the roughly 235,000 flowering plants and 325,000 nonflowering plants (including mosses, lichens, and seaweeds) available, farmers ignore virtually all of them in favor of a very few that are profitable. n365 To be sure, any of the more than 600,000 species of plants could have an application in agriculture, but would they be preferable to the species that are now dominant? Has anyone found any consumer demand for any of these half-million or more plants to replace rice or wheat in the human diet? There are reasons that farmers cultivate rice, wheat, and corn rather than, say, Furbish's lousewort. There are many kinds of louseworts, so named because these weeds were thought to cause lice in sheep. How many does agriculture really require? [*911] The species on which agriculture relies are domesticated, not naturally occurring; they are developed by artificial not natural selection; they might not be able to survive in the wild. n366 This argument is not intended to deny the religious, aesthetic, cultural, and moral reasons that command us to respect and protect the natural world. These spiritual and ethical values should evoke action, of course, but we should also recognize that they are spiritual and ethical values. We should recognize that ecosystems and all that dwell therein compel our moral respect, our aesthetic appreciation, and our spiritual veneration; we should clearly seek to achieve the goals of the ESA. There is no reason to assume, however, that these goals have anything to do with human well-being or welfare as economists understand that term. These are ethical goals, in other words, not economic ones. Protecting the marsh may be the right thing to do for moral, cultural, and spiritual reasons. We should do it-but someone will have to pay the costs. In the narrow sense of promoting human welfare, protecting nature often represents a net "cost," not a net "benefit." It is largely for moral, not economic, reasons-ethical, not prudential, reasons- that we care about all our fellow creatures. They are valuable as objects of love not as objects of use. What is good for [*912] the marsh may be good in itself even if it is not, in the economic sense, good for mankind. The most valuable things are quite useless.
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Doremus 0 (Holly Doremus, The Rhetoric and Reality of Nature Protection: Toward a New Discourse, 57 Wash. & Lee L. Rev. 11 (2000), http://scholarlycommons.law.wlu.edu/wlulr/vol57/iss1/3, Professor of Law, University of California at Davis. JD., University of California at Berkeley (Boalt Hall), Ph.D., Cornell University.) Reluctant to concede such losses, tellers of the ecological horror story highlight how close a catastrophe might be, and how little we know about what actions might trigger one. But the apocalyptic vision is less credible today than it seemed in the 1970s. Although it is clear that the earth is experiencing a mass wave of extinctions,213 the complete elimination of life on earth seems unlikely.214 Life is remarkably robust. Nor is human extinction probable any time soon. Homo sapiens is adaptable to nearly any environment. Even if the world of the future includes far fewer species, it likely will hold people.215 One response to this credibility problem tones the story down a bit, arguing not that humans will go extinct but that ecological disruption will bring economies, and consequently civilizations, to their knees.2 6 But this too may be overstating the case. Most ecosystem functions are performed by multiple species. This functional redundancy means that a high proportion of species can be lost without precipitating a collapse.217 Another response drops the horrific ending and returns to a more measured discourse of the many material benefits nature provides humanity. Even these more plausible tales, though, suffer from an important limitation. They call for nature protection only at a high level of generality. For example, human-induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels may cause rapid changes in global temperatures in the near future, with drastic consequences for sea levels, weather patterns, and ecosystem services.21 Similarly, the loss of large numbers of species undoubtedly reduces the genetic library from which we might in the future draw useful resources.219 But it is difficult to translate these insights into convincing arguments against any one of the small local decisions that contribute to the problems of global warming or biodiversity loss." ° It is easy to argue that the material impact of any individual decision to increase carbon emissions slightly or to destroy a small amount of habitat will be small. It is difficult to identify the specific straw that will break the camel's back. Furthermore, no unilateral action at the local or even national level can solve these global problems. Local decision makers may feel paralyzed by the scope of the problems, or may conclude that any sacrifices they might make will go unrewarded if others do not restrain their actions. In sum, at the local level at which most decisions affecting nature are made, the material discourse provides little reason to save nature. Short of the ultimate catastrophe, the material benefits of destructive decisions frequently will exceed their identifiable material costs.22
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Although earth stands on the brink of massive extinction it may not follow that human beings will suffer skeptics such as Tudge have challenged biologists to explain why we need more than a tenth of the 10 to 100 million species that grace the earth. Noting that "cultivated systems often out-produce wild systems by 100-fold or more," Tudge declared that "the argument that humans need the variety of other species is, a theological one "the elimination of all but a tiny minority of our fellow creatures does not affect the material well-being of humans one iota." The human species could survive just as well if 99.9% of our fellow creatures went extinct, provided only that we retained the appropriate 0.1% that we need." biologists believe species are so fabulously redundant in the ecological functions they perform that the life-support systems and processes of the planet and ecological processes in general will function perfectly well with fewer of them, certainly fewer than the millions and millions we can expect to remain even if every threatened organism becomes extinct. n350 Even the kind of sparse world depicted in Blade Runner could provide a "sustainable" context for the human economy What crucial ecological services does the black-capped vireo, for example, serve? Are any of the species threatened with extinction necessary to the provision of any ecosystem service on which humans depend? If so, which ones are they? There is little ecological similarity, for example, between New England today and the land where the Pilgrims died. n353 In view of the constant reconfiguration of the biota, one may wonder why Americans have not suffered more as a result of ecological catastrophes. One might argue that the sheer number and variety of creatures available to any ecosystem buffers that system against stress. In the United States as in many other parts of the world, however, the number of species has been increasing dramatically, not decreasing, as a result of human activity. This is because the hordes of exotic species coming into ecosystems in the United States far exceed the number of species that are becoming extinct. The Ecological Society of America has urged managers to maintain biological diversity as a critical component in strengthening ecosystems against disturbance. n360 Yet as Levin observed, "much of the detail about species composition will be irrelevant in terms of influences on ecosystem properties." biodiversity matters only up to a point; above a certain level, increasing biodiversity is likely to make little difference What about the use of plants and animals in agriculture? There is no scarcity foreseeable. "Of an estimated 80,000 types of plants [we] know to be edible only about 150 are extensively cultivated. Has anyone found any consumer demand for any of these half-million or more plants to replace rice or wheat in the human diet protecting nature often represents a net "cost," not a net "benefit." It is largely for moral, not economic, reasons-ethical, not prudential, reasons- that we care about all our fellow creatures.
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Human extinction as a result of biodiversity loss is unlikely
| 11,373 | 61 | 3,098 | 1,870 | 10 | 499 | 0.005348 | 0.266845 |
Environment Disadvantage - Northwestern 2013 4WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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1,734 |
Dutton 1 (Dr. Dennis, Professor of Philosophy – University of Canterbury (New Zealand), “Greener Than You Think”, The Washington Post, 10-21, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=& contentId=A12789-2001Oct18) That the human race faces environmental problems is unquestionable. That environmental experts have regularly tried to scare us out of our wits with doomsday chants is also beyond dispute. In the 1960s overpopulation was going to cause massive worldwide famine around 1980. A decade later we were being told the world would be out of oil by the 1990s. This was an especially chilly prospect, since, as Newsweek reported in 1975, we were in a climatic cooling trend that was going to reduce agricultural outputs for the rest of the century, leading possibly to a new Ice Age. Bjorn Lomborg, a young statistics professor and political scientist at the University of Aarhus in Denmark, knows all about the enduring appeal -- for journalists, politicians and the public -- of environmental doomsday tales, having swallowed more than a few himself. In 1997, Lomborg -- a self-described left-winger and former Greenpeace member -- came across an article in Wired magazine about Julian Simon, a University of Maryland economist. Simon claimed that the "litany" of the Green movement -- its fears about overpopulation, animal species dying by the hour, deforestation -- was hysterical nonsense, and that the quality of life on the planet was radically improving. Lomborg was shocked by this, and he returned to Denmark to set about doing the research that would refute Simon. He and his team of academicians discovered something sobering and cheering: In every one of his claims, Simon was correct. Moreover, Lomborg found on close analysis that the factual foundation on which the environmental doomsayers stood was deeply flawed: exaggeration, prevarications, white lies and even convenient typographical errors had been absorbed unchallenged into the folklore of environmental disaster scenarios.
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Sagoff 97 (Mark, Senior Research Scholar @ Institute for Philosophy and Public policy in School of Public Affairs @ U. Maryland, William and Mary Law Review, “INSTITUTE OF BILL OF RIGHTS LAW SYMPOSIUM DEFINING TAKINGS: PRIVATE PROPERTY AND THE FUTURE OF GOVERNMENT REGULATION: MUDDLE OR MUDDLE THROUGH? TAKINGS JURISPRUDENCE MEETS THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT”, 38 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 825, March, L/N) Although one may agree with ecologists such as Ehrlich and Raven that the earth stands on the brink of an episode of massive extinction, it may not follow from this grim fact that human beings will suffer as a result. On the contrary, skeptics such as science writer Colin Tudge have challenged biologists to explain why we need more than a tenth of the 10 to 100 million species that grace the earth. Noting that "cultivated systems often out-produce wild systems by 100-fold or more," Tudge declared that "the argument that humans need the variety of other species is, when you think about it, a theological one." n343 Tudge observed that "the elimination of all but a tiny minority of our fellow creatures does not affect the material well-being of humans one iota." n344 This skeptic challenged ecologists to list more than 10,000 species (other than unthreatened microbes) that are essential to ecosystem productivity or functioning. n345 "The human species could survive just as well if 99.9% of our fellow creatures went extinct, provided only that we retained the appropriate 0.1% that we need." n346 [*906] The monumental Global Biodiversity Assessment ("the Assessment") identified two positions with respect to redundancy of species. "At one extreme is the idea that each species is unique and important, such that its removal or loss will have demonstrable consequences to the functioning of the community or ecosystem." n347 The authors of the Assessment, a panel of eminent ecologists, endorsed this position, saying it is "unlikely that there is much, if any, ecological redundancy in communities over time scales of decades to centuries, the time period over which environmental policy should operate." n348 These eminent ecologists rejected the opposing view, "the notion that species overlap in function to a sufficient degree that removal or loss of a species will be compensated by others, with negligible overall consequences to the community or ecosystem." n349 Other biologists believe, however, that species are so fabulously redundant in the ecological functions they perform that the life-support systems and processes of the planet and ecological processes in general will function perfectly well with fewer of them, certainly fewer than the millions and millions we can expect to remain even if every threatened organism becomes extinct. n350 Even the kind of sparse and miserable world depicted in the movie Blade Runner could provide a "sustainable" context for the human economy as long as people forgot their aesthetic and moral commitment to the glory and beauty of the natural world. n351 The Assessment makes this point. "Although any ecosystem contains hundreds to thousands of species interacting among themselves and their physical environment, the emerging consensus is that the system is driven by a small number of . . . biotic variables on whose interactions the balance of species are, in a sense, carried along." n352 [*907] To make up your mind on the question of the functional redundancy of species, consider an endangered species of bird, plant, or insect and ask how the ecosystem would fare in its absence. The fact that the creature is endangered suggests an answer: it is already in limbo as far as ecosystem processes are concerned. What crucial ecological services does the black-capped vireo, for example, serve? Are any of the species threatened with extinction necessary to the provision of any ecosystem service on which humans depend? If so, which ones are they? Ecosystems and the species that compose them have changed, dramatically, continually, and totally in virtually every part of the United States. There is little ecological similarity, for example, between New England today and the land where the Pilgrims died. n353 In view of the constant reconfiguration of the biota, one may wonder why Americans have not suffered more as a result of ecological catastrophes. The cast of species in nearly every environment changes constantly-local extinction is commonplace in nature-but the crops still grow. Somehow, it seems, property values keep going up on Martha's Vineyard in spite of the tragic disappearance of the heath hen. One might argue that the sheer number and variety of creatures available to any ecosystem buffers that system against stress. Accordingly, we should be concerned if the "library" of creatures ready, willing, and able to colonize ecosystems gets too small. (Advances in genetic engineering may well permit us to write a large number of additions to that "library.") In the United States as in many other parts of the world, however, the number of species has been increasing dramatically, not decreasing, as a result of human activity. This is because the hordes of exotic species coming into ecosystems in the United States far exceed the number of species that are becoming extinct. Indeed, introductions may outnumber extinctions by more than ten to one, so that the United States is becoming more and more species-rich all the time largely as a result of human action. n354 [*908] Peter Vitousek and colleagues estimate that over 1000 non-native plants grow in California alone; in Hawaii there are 861; in Florida, 1210. n355 In Florida more than 1000 non-native insects, 23 species of mammals, and about 11 exotic birds have established themselves. n356 Anyone who waters a lawn or hoes a garden knows how many weeds desire to grow there, how many birds and bugs visit the yard, and how many fungi, creepy-crawlies, and other odd life forms show forth when it rains. All belong to nature, from wherever they might hail, but not many homeowners would claim that there are too few of them. Now, not all exotic species provide ecosystem services; indeed, some may be disruptive or have no instrumental value. n357 This also may be true, of course, of native species as well, especially because all exotics are native somewhere. Certain exotic species, however, such as Kentucky blue grass, establish an area's sense of identity and place; others, such as the green crabs showing up around Martha's Vineyard, are nuisances. n358 Consider an analogy [*909] with human migration. Everyone knows that after a generation or two, immigrants to this country are hard to distinguish from everyone else. The vast majority of Americans did not evolve here, as it were, from hominids; most of us "came over" at one time or another. This is true of many of our fellow species as well, and they may fit in here just as well as we do. It is possible to distinguish exotic species from native ones for a period of time, just as we can distinguish immigrants from native-born Americans, but as the centuries roll by, species, like people, fit into the landscape or the society, changing and often enriching it. Shall we have a rule that a species had to come over on the Mayflower, as so many did, to count as "truly" American? Plainly not. When, then, is the cutoff date? Insofar as we are concerned with the absolute numbers of "rivets" holding ecosystems together, extinction seems not to pose a general problem because a far greater number of kinds of mammals, insects, fish, plants, and other creatures thrive on land and in water in America today than in prelapsarian times. n359 The Ecological Society of America has urged managers to maintain biological diversity as a critical component in strengthening ecosystems against disturbance. n360 Yet as Simon Levin observed, "much of the detail about species composition will be irrelevant in terms of influences on ecosystem properties." n361 [*910] He added: "For net primary productivity, as is likely to be the case for any system property, biodiversity matters only up to a point; above a certain level, increasing biodiversity is likely to make little difference." n362 What about the use of plants and animals in agriculture? There is no scarcity foreseeable. "Of an estimated 80,000 types of plants [we] know to be edible," a U.S. Department of the Interior document says, "only about 150 are extensively cultivated." n363 About twenty species, not one of which is endangered, provide ninety percent of the food the world takes from plants. n364 Any new food has to take "shelf space" or "market share" from one that is now produced. Corporations also find it difficult to create demand for a new product; for example, people are not inclined to eat paw-paws, even though they are delicious. It is hard enough to get people to eat their broccoli and lima beans. It is harder still to develop consumer demand for new foods. This may be the reason the Kraft Corporation does not prospect in remote places for rare and unusual plants and animals to add to the world's diet. Of the roughly 235,000 flowering plants and 325,000 nonflowering plants (including mosses, lichens, and seaweeds) available, farmers ignore virtually all of them in favor of a very few that are profitable. n365 To be sure, any of the more than 600,000 species of plants could have an application in agriculture, but would they be preferable to the species that are now dominant? Has anyone found any consumer demand for any of these half-million or more plants to replace rice or wheat in the human diet? There are reasons that farmers cultivate rice, wheat, and corn rather than, say, Furbish's lousewort. There are many kinds of louseworts, so named because these weeds were thought to cause lice in sheep. How many does agriculture really require? [*911] The species on which agriculture relies are domesticated, not naturally occurring; they are developed by artificial not natural selection; they might not be able to survive in the wild. n366 This argument is not intended to deny the religious, aesthetic, cultural, and moral reasons that command us to respect and protect the natural world. These spiritual and ethical values should evoke action, of course, but we should also recognize that they are spiritual and ethical values. We should recognize that ecosystems and all that dwell therein compel our moral respect, our aesthetic appreciation, and our spiritual veneration; we should clearly seek to achieve the goals of the ESA. There is no reason to assume, however, that these goals have anything to do with human well-being or welfare as economists understand that term. These are ethical goals, in other words, not economic ones. Protecting the marsh may be the right thing to do for moral, cultural, and spiritual reasons. We should do it-but someone will have to pay the costs. In the narrow sense of promoting human welfare, protecting nature often represents a net "cost," not a net "benefit." It is largely for moral, not economic, reasons-ethical, not prudential, reasons- that we care about all our fellow creatures. They are valuable as objects of love not as objects of use. What is good for [*912] the marsh may be good in itself even if it is not, in the economic sense, good for mankind. The most valuable things are quite useless.
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environmental experts have tried to scare us with doomsday chants Simon claimed fears about species dying deforestation was hysterical nonsense, and the planet was radically improving research discovered In every claims, Simon was correct. on close analysis the factual foundation on which doomsayers stood was deeply flawed: exaggeration, prevarications lies and typographical errors had been absorbed unchallenged into environmental disaster scenarios
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Humans will survive despite biodiversity loss
| 2,026 | 45 | 453 | 305 | 6 | 61 | 0.019672 | 0.2 |
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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1,735 |
Kennedy 2 (Victor Kennedy, PhD Environmental Science and Dir. Cooperative Oxford Lab., 2002, “Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Global Climate Change,” Pew, http://www.pewclimate.org/projects/marine.cfm) There is evidence that marine organisms and ecosystems are resilient to environmental change. Steele (1991) hypothesized that the biological components of marine systems are tightly coupled to physical factors, allowing them to respond quickly to rapid environmental change and thus rendering them ecologically adaptable. Some species also have wide genetic variability throughout their range, which may allow for adaptation to climate change.
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Dutton 1 (Dr. Dennis, Professor of Philosophy – University of Canterbury (New Zealand), “Greener Than You Think”, The Washington Post, 10-21, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=& contentId=A12789-2001Oct18) That the human race faces environmental problems is unquestionable. That environmental experts have regularly tried to scare us out of our wits with doomsday chants is also beyond dispute. In the 1960s overpopulation was going to cause massive worldwide famine around 1980. A decade later we were being told the world would be out of oil by the 1990s. This was an especially chilly prospect, since, as Newsweek reported in 1975, we were in a climatic cooling trend that was going to reduce agricultural outputs for the rest of the century, leading possibly to a new Ice Age. Bjorn Lomborg, a young statistics professor and political scientist at the University of Aarhus in Denmark, knows all about the enduring appeal -- for journalists, politicians and the public -- of environmental doomsday tales, having swallowed more than a few himself. In 1997, Lomborg -- a self-described left-winger and former Greenpeace member -- came across an article in Wired magazine about Julian Simon, a University of Maryland economist. Simon claimed that the "litany" of the Green movement -- its fears about overpopulation, animal species dying by the hour, deforestation -- was hysterical nonsense, and that the quality of life on the planet was radically improving. Lomborg was shocked by this, and he returned to Denmark to set about doing the research that would refute Simon. He and his team of academicians discovered something sobering and cheering: In every one of his claims, Simon was correct. Moreover, Lomborg found on close analysis that the factual foundation on which the environmental doomsayers stood was deeply flawed: exaggeration, prevarications, white lies and even convenient typographical errors had been absorbed unchallenged into the folklore of environmental disaster scenarios.
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marine ecosystems are resilient biological components of marine systems are tightly coupled to physical factors, allowing them to respond quickly to rapid environmental change and thus rendering them ecologically adaptable. Some species also have wide genetic variability throughout their range, which may allow for adaptation
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Environment resilient and improving – their authors lie
| 647 | 55 | 326 | 85 | 8 | 45 | 0.094118 | 0.529412 |
Environment Disadvantage - Northwestern 2013 4WeekJuniors.html5
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Northwestern (NHSI)
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Disadvantages
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2013
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1,736 |
While we are in a speculative mode, it may be useful to¶ raise the issue of whether, two or three decades from now,¶ the United States might have to deal with a regional¶ hegemon or peer competitor. The most obvious candidate for¶ such a role would be Brazil, which already accounts for¶ almost half of Latin America’s economic production and has¶ by far the largest armed forces in the region (313,250 active¶ troops).53 That country could very well assume a more¶ commanding political and military role in the decades¶ ahead.
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Shultz, Chairman of the Political Science Department at Cleveland State University, 2000 [Donald E, March, “The United States and Latin America: Shaping an Elusive Future”, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=31, accessed: 7/8/13, ML]
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the U S might have to deal with a regional hegemon The most obvious candidate would be Brazil
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Downard spiral causes Brazil rearm – leads to regional wars and escalates
| 527 | 73 | 93 | 90 | 12 | 18 | 0.133333 | 0.2 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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Counterplans
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2013
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1,737 |
Washington — President Obama and Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff have announced that the two largest democracies and economies in the Western Hemisphere are broadening and deepening their relationship.
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Kurata, IIP Digital Staff Writer, 12 [Phillip, 4/9/12, “U.S., Brazil Expand and Deepen Cooperation”, IIP Digital http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/article/2012/04/201204093530.html#axzz2Y6hq4jo0, accessed: 7/4/13, ML]
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Obama and Rousseff announced that the two largest democracies are broadening their relationship.
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Brazil will co-operate with the US on anything – mutual intrests
| 204 | 64 | 96 | 28 | 11 | 13 | 0.392857 | 0.464286 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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1,738 |
The United States seeks to be “a strategic energy partner” to Brazil, which recently discovered major new offshore oil reserves. Obama said the United States wants to be one of Brazil's “best customers” when the oil starts flowing.
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Merco Press 12 [3/20/11, “US/Brazil to advance trade and economic cooperation agreement”, http://en.mercopress.com/2011/03/20/us-brazil-to-advance-trade-and-economic-cooperation-agreement, accessed: 7/3/13, ML]
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The U S seeks to be “a strategic energy partner” to Brazil, which discovered new offshore oil reserves
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There’s been a reset in relations on multiple different issues
| 231 | 62 | 102 | 38 | 10 | 18 | 0.263158 | 0.473684 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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Counterplans
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2013
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1,739 |
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, the first national speaker at the U.N. General Assembly today, delivered a broadside against the United States, blasting Washington for subjecting “Dear Cuba” to an economic embargo that has “chastised” its people for too long. “Time has come to end this anachronistic” measure that enjoys virtually no support in the U.N. community, she said in remarks that veered from her official distributed speech. Rousseff also took aim at the West for its colonial past and for its failure to stop a wave of Islamophobia.
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Lynch, reporter on the UN for Foreign Policy, 12 [Colum, 9-25-13, Foreign Policy, “Rousseff broadside at U.S. Cuba embargo”, http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/09/25/rousseff_broadside_at_us_cuba_embargo, accessed 7-5-13, GSK]
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Brazilian President Rousseff, the first national speaker at the U.N. General Assembly delivered a broadside against the U S blasting Washington for subjecting “Dear Cuba” to an economic embargo that has “chastised” its people for too long. “Time has come to end this anachronistic” measure that enjoys virtually no support in the U.N. community, she said
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Brazil will say yes—pressuring the US to act
| 548 | 45 | 354 | 88 | 8 | 56 | 0.090909 | 0.636364 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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1,740 |
A reinvigorated US policy in the Western Hemisphere cannot proceed without a fundamental reevaluation of bilateral relations with Brazil. With a population of some 200 million, a $2.5 trillion economy (the world’s sixth largest), and a recent history of steady political and economic management, Brazil is beginning to realize its enormous potential. Much as China used the 2008 Beijing Olympics to unveil its economic progress and modernity, Brazil will be the focus of global attention in 2014 and 2016 as it hosts the World Cup and Olympics, respectively.
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Noriega, former U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States, 12 [Roger, 12/5/13, “An action plan for US policy in the Americas”, American Enterprise Institute, http://www.aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/latin-america/an-action-plan-for-us-policy-in-the-americas/, accessed: 7/2/13, ML]
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A reinvigorated US policy cannot proceed without a fundamental reevaluation of bilateral relations with Brazil Brazil will be the focus of global attention
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Engagement with Brazil’s key to relations
| 558 | 41 | 155 | 88 | 6 | 23 | 0.068182 | 0.261364 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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1,741 |
Relations between Brazil and the United States are generally friendly. “As two of the world’s largest economies and democracies, with shared values and increasingly converging goals, Brazil and the United States are natural partners in a rapidly changing world,” according to U.S. officials.84 The Obama Administration’s National Security Strategy states that the United States “welcome[s] Brazil’s leadership and seek[s] to move beyond dated North-South divisions to pursue progress on bilateral, hemispheric, and global issues.”85 The United States and Brazil have established over 25 dialogues to enhance coordination and cooperation on a wide variety of issues. Among other topics, the United States and Brazil engage on security, energy, trade, human rights, and the environment. Although Brazil and the United States share a number of common goals, the countries’ occasionally divergent national interests and independent foreign policies have led to disagreements on trade and political matters. Some long-running disputes include the stalled Doha trade negotiations and Brazilian opposition to U.S. cotton subsidies. Additional differences have emerged in recent years, many of which have centered on the countries’ approaches to foreign policy. In 2010 and 2011, for example, Brazil used its temporary seat on the U.N. Security Council to advocate engagement with internationally isolated regimes like Iran, Libya, and Syria, rather than sanctions, which it views as a prelude to armed conflict. Some analysts and policymakers assert that Brazil’s increasing global prominence and involvement on an array of issues will inevitably lead to disputes with the United States and that managing those disputes in a transparent and respectful manner will be crucial to maintaining friendly relations moving forward.
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Meyer ’13 (Peter J. Meyer, Analyst in Latin American Affairs at Congressional Research Service, CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress, “Brazil-U.S. Relations,” Congressional Research Service, 2/27/2013, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33456.pdf)
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Brazil and the U S are natural partners in a rapidly changing world The Obama Administration states that the U S welcome[s] Brazil’s leadership to pursue progress on bilateral, hemispheric, and global issues the U S and Brazil engage on security, energy, trade, human rights, and the environment Brazil and the U S divergent national interests and independent foreign policies have led to disagreements on trade and political matters analysts and policymakers assert that Brazil’s increasing global prominence and involvement on an array of issues will inevitably lead to disputes with the United States and that managing those disputes in a transparent and respectful manner will be crucial to maintaining friendly relations moving forward.
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Brazil is a rising power that wants to be consulted and engaged- we are pushing for increased cooperation and consultation now
| 1,817 | 126 | 741 | 265 | 21 | 114 | 0.079245 | 0.430189 |
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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The report noted that the ratification of long-pending free trade accords with Colombia and Panama offer a good start, but that Washington should also seek a “broader framework for U.S. economic relations with Latin America,” despite the failure of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) to gain any traction. The growing global influence of Latin America, particularly Brazil and Mexico, also calls for greater cooperation and consultation with the region’s leaders on global issues, including nuclear non- proliferation and climate change, according to the report.
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Lobe ’12 (Jim Lobe, B.A. degree with highest honours in history at Williams College and a J.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley’s Boalt Hall School of Law, lectured on U.S. foreign policy, neo-conservative ideology, the Bush administration and foreign policy and the U.S. mainstream media at various colleges and universities around the United States and world, “U.S., Latin America Growing more Distant, Warns Think Tank”, Inter Press Service News Agency, 4/11/2012, http://www.ipsnews.net/2012/04/us-latin-america-growing-more-distant-warns-think-tank/)
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the ratification of long-pending free trade accords with Colombia and Panama offer a good start, but Washington should seek a “broader framework for U.S. economic relations with Latin America,” The growing global influence of Brazil call for greater cooperation and consultation on global issues
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Brazil’s global influence demands consultation
| 570 | 46 | 295 | 87 | 5 | 44 | 0.057471 | 0.505747 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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1,743 |
Relations between the United States and Latin America are at a curious juncture . In the past decade, most Latin American countries have made enormous progress in managing their economies and reducing inequality and, especially, poverty, within a democratic framework . These critical changes have brought greater autonomy, expanded global links, and grow- ing self-confidence . It is now the United States that is in a sour mood, struggling with a still weak economic recovery, diminished international stature and influence, and fractured politics at home .These recent changes have profoundly affected Inter-American relations . While relations are today cordial and largely free of the antagonisms of the past, they also seem without vigor and purpose . Effective cooperation in the Americas, whether to deal with urgent problems or to take advantage of new opportunities, has been disappointing .The Inter-American Dialogue’s report is a call to all nations of the hemi- sphere to take stock, to rebuild cooperation, and to reshape relations in a new direction . All governments in the hemisphere should be more attentive to emerging opportunities for fruitful collaboration on global and regional issues ranging across economic integration, energy security, protection of democracy, and climate change . The United States must regain its cred- ibility in the region by dealing seriously with an unfinished agenda of problems—including immigration, drugs, and Cuba—that stands in the way of a real partnership . To do so, it needs the help of Latin America and the Caribbean . If the current state of affairs continues, the strain between the United States and Latin America could worsen, adversely affecting the interests and well- being of all in the hemisphere . There is a great deal at stake . This report offers a realistic assessment of the relationship within a changing regional and global context and sets out an agenda of old and new business that need urgent attention . A collaborative effort should begin immediately at the sixth Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, Colombia .
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Inter-American Dialogue ’12 (the leading US center for policy analysis, exchange, and communication on issues in Western Hemisphere affairs. The Dialogue’s select membership of 100 distinguished citizens from throughout the Americas includes political, business, academic, media, and other nongovernmental leaders. Fourteen Dialogue members served as presidents of their countries and more than two dozen have served at the cabinet level; “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America”; Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report; April 11, 2012; http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=2925&s=)
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Relations between the United States and Latin America are at a curious juncture relations seem without vigor and purpose . All governments in the hemisphere should be more attentive to opportunities for collaboration on global and regional issues The U S must regain cred- ibility in the region by dealing seriously with an unfinished agenda of problems—including immigration, drugs, and Cuba—that stands in the way of a real partnership . If the current state of affairs continues, the strain between the United States and Latin America could worsen, adversely affecting the interests and well- being of all in the hemisphere A collaborative effort should begin immediately
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U.S. needs a more open, collaborative policy towards Latin America in order to strengthen relations
| 2,096 | 99 | 674 | 333 | 15 | 106 | 0.045045 | 0.318318 |
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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1,744 |
Many of the issues on the hemispheric agenda carry critical global dimensions . Because of this, the United States should seek greater cooperation and consultation with Brazil, Mexico, and other countries of the region in world forums addressing shared interests . Brazil has the broadest international presence and influence of any Latin American nation . In recent years it has become far more active on global issues of concern to the United States . The United States and Brazil have clashed over such issues as Iran’s nuclear program, non-proliferation, and the Middle East uprisings, but they have cooperated when their interests converged, such as in the World Trade Organization and the G-20 (Mexico, Argentina, and Canada also participate in the G-20), and in efforts to rebuild and provide security for Haiti . Washington has worked with Brazil and other Latin American countries to raise the profile of emerging econo- mies in various international financial agencies, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund .
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Inter-American Dialogue ’12 (the leading US center for policy analysis, exchange, and communication on issues in Western Hemisphere affairs. The Dialogue’s select membership of 100 distinguished citizens from throughout the Americas includes political, business, academic, media, and other nongovernmental leaders. Fourteen Dialogue members served as presidents of their countries and more than two dozen have served at the cabinet level; “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America”; Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report; April 11, 2012; http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=2925&s=)
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the U S should seek greater cooperation and consultation with Brazil Brazil has the broadest international presence and influence of any Latin American nation . In recent years it has become far more active on global issues of concern to the U S
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Brazil is the largest presence in Latin America- the U.S. should consult
| 1,042 | 72 | 245 | 165 | 12 | 43 | 0.072727 | 0.260606 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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Counterplans
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2013
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1,745 |
The last area of convergence and cooperation is not an American one, but a Brazilian one. Brasília is as interested as the United States in a stronger relationship. The former Brazil Foreign Minister who is now the Defense Minister, Celso Amorin, recognized that there was enormous potential for structured cooperation between Brazil and the United States in areas of the world like Africa where there is great need for development and stability.57 Minister Amorin has cited the trilateral cooperation agreement among Brazil, Guinea-Bissau, and the United States as an example of productive cooperation. This was a first of its kind agreement for the United States and Brazil in Africa.These trilateral agreements make strategic sense because bilateral agreements between the United States and relatively poor countries usually elicit criticism that the world’s only superpower is engaging in exploitive neo-colonialism. Having itself been a Portuguese colony, Brazil is viewed as a moderating influence on perceived expansive U.S. foreign policy. Brazil is also considered a friendly observer to the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) of 120 countries that are distrustful of superpower diplomacy.59 Plainly spoken, if Brazil is part of an U.S. agreement with an impoverished country, that country feels more comfortable making an agreement with the United States because Brazil, a guarantor of U.S. intentions, is part of it. Brazil welcomes this role because it enhances its position as a regional and world leader, establishes a singularly special diplomatic relationship with the United States, and fulfills two of Brazil’s foreign policy action areas.60 And its role as a third party broker does not end with Africa or other poor regions. Brazil sees itself as a viable broker for peace as evidenced with its last-ditch diplomatic effort with Iran that attempted to resolve the uranium processing crisis.
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Brown ’12 (Lieutenant Colonel Lawrence T. Brown, United States Army War College, _____, “Restoring the “Unwritten Alliance” in Brazil—United States Relations”, United States Army War College, The U.S. Army War College is accredited by the Commission on Higher Education of the Middle States Association of Colleges and Schools, 3624 Market Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104, (215) 662-5606. The Commission on Higher Education is an institutional accrediting agency recognized by the U.S. Secretary of Education and the Council for Higher Education Accreditation., 3/23/2012, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA560773)
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Brasíl is as interested as the U S in a stronger relationship trilateral agreements make strategic sense because bilateral agreements between the U S and relatively poor countries elicit criticism that the world’s only superpower is engaging in exploitive neo-colonialism Brazil is viewed as a moderating influence on perceived expansive U.S. foreign policy if Brazil is part of an U.S. agreement with an impoverished country, that country feels more comfortable making an agreement with the United States because Brazil, a guarantor of U.S. intentions, is part of it. Brazil welcomes this role because it enhances its position as a regional and world leader, establishes a singularly special diplomatic relationship with the U S
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Consulting Brazil strengthens relations and is desired by Brazil and the U.S., plus trilateral agreements involving Brazil are more likely to be successful
| 1,903 | 156 | 730 | 292 | 23 | 113 | 0.078767 | 0.386986 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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1,746 |
Whereas previous conversations between Brazilian and American policymakers might have been limited to a few areas of core interest, it is now all-encompassing. There are mechanisms for regular ministerial cooperation and consultation ranging from challenging topics such as trade, finance and defense, to 21st century concerns such as cyber security, open government, and innovation in science and technology, to issues that directly affect the average citizen such as education and social policies. People to people exchanges are on the rise, strengthening and expanding networks particularly in education and scientific research. Viewed by skeptics as window dressing and no substitute for concrete agreements on hard issues such as trade and taxation, the rapid increase in the breadth and depth of the bilateral dialogue and the Brazilian and American governments' efforts to maintain the doors open for a more productive and consequential relationship suggest, at a minimum, that they understand they need each other, benefit from working together and risk paying a political price for not doing so.
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Sotero ’12 (Paulo Sotero, Director of the Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, in Washington; “Why United States and Brazil Will Pursue a More Productive Bilateral Relationship”; The Huffington Post, 11/09/2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paulo-sotero/why-united-states-and-bra_b_2102004.html)
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conversations between Brazilian and American policymakers are now all-encompassing. There are mechanisms for regular cooperation and consultation ranging from trade, finance and defense, to 21st century concerns such as cyber security, open government, and innovation in science and technology, to issues that directly affect the average citizen such as education and social policies Brazilian and American governments understand they need each other, benefit from working together and risk paying a political price for not doing so.
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Brazil and U.S. consultation is necessary
| 1,104 | 41 | 533 | 166 | 6 | 76 | 0.036145 | 0.457831 |
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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We must also maximize mutual global competitiveness in the energy realm. The United States can accomplish this by immediately approving extension of the Keystone XL Pipeline that connects Canada oil deposits with US refineries in the Midwest. We should also strive to create a “Big 4” regional energy consultative group between the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil—including representatives of the private sector—to promote cooperation and share best practices on energy production and distribution. We should likewise host a Camp David summit with leaders of these four nations.
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Rothkopf, President and CEO of an international advisory firm, 9 [David, March 9, “The United States and Brazil Two perspectives on dealing with partnership and rivalry”, American Progress, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/03/pdf/brazil.pdf, accessed: 7/2/13, ML]
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We must maximize competitiveness in the energy realm The U S should strive to create a consultative group between the U S and Brazil including representatives of the private sector—to promote cooperation and share best practices on energy production and distribution
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Consultation is best for energy programs
| 588 | 40 | 266 | 88 | 6 | 41 | 0.068182 | 0.465909 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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What should the U.S. role be? It must work with its Latin American allies in the region, Chile, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to gently pressure Maduro into making the types of institutional and economic changes necessary for Venezuela to prosper. Failure to do so could lead to the reemergence of authoritarianism in Latin America, instability in world oil markets and serious regional security repercussions.
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Pagano, writer for the Truman National Security Project, 3/18/13 [James, “Moving Venezuela to the Center”, Truman National Security Project, http://trumanproject.org/doctrine-blog/moving-venezuela-to-the-center/, accessed: 7/2/13, ML]
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the U.S. must work with Brazil to pressure Maduro into making the types of institutional and economic changes necessary for Venezuela to prosper.
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Discussion with Brazil over Venezuela is critical
| 408 | 50 | 145 | 64 | 7 | 23 | 0.109375 | 0.359375 |
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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The US sometimes accuses Brazil of protectionism while Brazil has attacked US agricultural subsidies. Brazil is concerned that it is being left out of US efforts to build a web of bilateral agreements, such as with the EU, which it fears will undermine the global trading system. US officials counter that Brazil is too wedded to the slow-moving South American trading bloc, Mercosur. In the long run, the US seems willing to embrace the rise of a Brazil that pursues an independent foreign policy and insists on friendly relations with most countries in the world, no matter how distasteful Washington might find some of them. Brazil seems happy to expand its influence with a sense of responsibility to all. “Brazil sees itself as a country that has a role in the global space, as an actor that will contribute and benefit from more integration with the international system,” says Paulo Sotero, director of the Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. In a 2011 report, the think-tank Council on Foreign Relations went further: “Brazil is on the short list of countries that will most shape the 21st century. US and Brazilian foreign policy must adjust accordingly.”
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Leahy ’12 (Joe Leahy, FT's Brazil bureau chief. He was previously Mumbai bureau chief for four years and before that Asia companies editor and Hong Kong correspondent. He was also a correspondent in Jakarta for the South China Morning Post and Jakarta bureau chief of AFX. , “Politics put to one side in sign of closer ties between Brazil and the US”, The Financial Times, 5-16-2013, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9f9d81c6-b883-11e2-869f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2YNZaEdLL)
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Brazil is concerned that it is being left out of US efforts to build a web of bilateral agreements, In the long run, the US seems willing to embrace the rise of a Brazil that pursues an independent foreign policy and insists on friendly relations with most countries in the world, Brazil sees itself as a country that has a role in the global space, as an actor that will contribute and benefit from more integration with the international system,” : “Brazil is on the short list of countries that will most shape the 21st century. US and Brazilian foreign policy must adjust accordingly.”
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Brazil wants to be included in U.S. investments
| 1,203 | 47 | 590 | 199 | 8 | 104 | 0.040201 | 0.522613 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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1,750 |
While the challenges of Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, the Middle East and the Korean¶ peninsula will continue to monopolize center stage in U.S. national security policy, we¶ have reentered a time where hemispheric security is global security. We last saw this reality¶ during the Cold War, but the source of the current dynamic is different, with petrodol¶ -¶ lars fueling much of the divisive activity. Even with the declining price of oil, Venezuela¶ stands out as a counterproductive force in regional affairs. Its interference in and funding¶ of political movements beyond its borders has been a destabilizing force in countries from¶ Honduras to Bolivia, with a relative U.S. leadership vacuum enhancing Venezuela’s ability¶ to influence outcomes.
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Rothkopf, President and CEO of an international advisory firm, 9 [David, March 9, “The United States and Brazil Two perspectives on dealing with partnership and rivalry”, American Progress, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/03/pdf/brazil.pdf, accessed: 7/2/13, ML]
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Even with the declining price of oil Venezuela stands out as a counterproductive force in regional affairs Its interference has been a destabilizing with a relative U.S. leadership vacuum enhancing Venezuela’s ability to influence outcomes.
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Consultation with Brazil is key to check out Russia, China and Iran
| 753 | 67 | 240 | 115 | 12 | 35 | 0.104348 | 0.304348 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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1,751 |
The U.S.-Brazil energy partnership has the potential to foster energy security, economic growth, and job creation—priorities for both countries. Reflecting this shared vision, President Barack Obama and Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff last year launched the U.S.-Brazil Strategic Energy Dialogue (SED), a presidential-level mechanism to strengthen bilateral cooperation in this area. We at the Brazil-U.S. Business Council applaud this effort towards a bold bilateral partnership in energy. We have been vigorously engaged in energy cooperation to deepen the commercial pillar of the U.S.-Brazil partnership, with an emphasis on trade and investment promotion. In this context, we worked closely with the White House, the U.S. Department of Energy and other federal government agencies to launch the SED in August 2011. On that occasion, deputy secretary of energy Daniel Poneman met with private sector representatives in both São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, and officially launched the dialogue in Brasília. Further recognizing the importance of our energy partnership, this week, I moderated a panel featuring key U.S. and Brazilian government officials at the 13th edition of the Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo’s Annual Energy Conference— Brazil’s largest energy-related event. During the panel, the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy, along with the U.S. Department of Energy, announced the next meeting of the SED in Washington, D.C. this coming October. The Ministry also announced that the private sector will be, for the first time, officially incorporated in the dialogue’s program of work – a longstanding request of the Brazil-U.S. Business Council and our partners in the U.S. and Brazil. The Brazil-U.S. Business Council also launched this week its latest report: “The U.S.-Brazil Energy Partnership: Bolstering Security, Growth, and Job Creation.” In this report, we talk about the state of the partnership and offer recommendations for both countries to take advantage of the benefits it could bring. The potential is there for this energy partnership to develop into one of the world’s greatest and bring real benefits for the citizens and economies of both countries. It’s great to see the governments and private sectors of both countries’ taking steps toward it.
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Bonomo ’12 (Diego Bonomo, Master, International Relations, B.A., International Relations, Senior Director | International Division at U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Senior Director for Policy at Brazil-U.S. Business Council, Director | International Division at U.S. Chamber of Commerce, “U.S.-Brazil Energy Partnership Offers Great Potential”, Brazil-US Business Council, Free Enterprise, U.S. Chamber of Commerce digital platform, 8-09-2012, http://www.freeenterprise.com/us-brazil-energy-partnership-offers-great-potential)
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The U.S.-Brazil energy partnership has the potential to foster energy security, economic growth, and job creation— . The Brazil-U.S. Business Council also launched “The U.S.-Brazil Energy Partnership: Bolstering Security, Growth, and Job Creation.” In this report, we talk about the state of the partnership and offer recommendations for both countries to take advantage of the benefits it could bring. The potential is there for this energy partnership to develop into one of the world’s greatest and bring real benefits for the citizens and economies of both countries.
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US-Brazil cooperation key to energy, economic growth, and jobs
| 2,307 | 62 | 571 | 350 | 9 | 87 | 0.025714 | 0.248571 |
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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Yet Brazil was one of the investment darlings of the last decade — the “B” in the ballyhooed BRIC quartet that also included Russia, India and China. Brazil’s economy at times grew at a rate of more than 5 percent a year. Most years, its stock market rose by double digits — in 2009, it returned more than 100 percent. Millions of people moved from poverty into the middle class, and Brazilian companies, like the oil driller Petrobras and the mining concern Vale, attained international prominence. So far this decade, though, the Brazilian stock market has been a bust. It has dropped by a cumulative 25.3 percent over the last three years, and it has dragged Latin America stock mutual funds down with it. In the first half of 2013, Latin America funds tracked by Morningstar lost almost 17 percent, on average. Over the last three years through June, they lost 4.6 percent a year, annualized. But over the much longer term, they have still fared the best among emerging-market regional funds tracked by Morningstar, returning 16.7 percent, annualized, over the last decade. “Brazil needs to grow,” said Will Landers, manager of the BlackRock Latin America fund. “It has to deliver a G.D.P. growth rate above 2.5 percent, or investors are going to stay away.” Growth sagged in 2012, with gross domestic product increasing less than 1 percent. As the bellwether for South American bourses, Brazil has had problems that affect investors in the entire region. Brazilian stocks account for nearly 60 percent of the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America index and thus the same amount of passively managed funds, like the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America exchange-traded fund, that track the index. “You’re going to be investing in Brazil if you run a Latin America fund,” said Andres Calderon, manager of the Natixis Hansberger Emerging Latin America fund. Brazilian stocks recently made up about two-thirds of the assets of both Mr. Calderon’s and Mr. Landers’s funds.
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Gray 7/6 (Tim Gray, reporter for the New York Times, “In Brazil, a Reminder of Emerging-Market Risks”, NYT, 7/6/2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/07/business/mutfund/in-brazil-a-reminder-of-emerging-market-risks.html?ref=Americas)
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Brazil’s economy at times grew at a rate of more than 5 percent a year. Most years, its stock market rose by double digits So far this decade, though, the Brazilian stock market has been a bust. and it has dragged Latin America funds down with it. As the bellwether for South American bourses, Brazil has had problems that affect investors in the entire region. “You’re going to be investing in Brazil if you run a Latin America fund,
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Brazil’s economy impacts all of Latin America
| 1,977 | 45 | 434 | 328 | 7 | 79 | 0.021341 | 0.240854 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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Secrecy shrouding Brazil’s nuclear capabilities, suspected technological advances and provocative statements made by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva during his presidential campaign alarmed U.S. nuclear control advocates. But, according to Secretary of State Colin Powell, future nuclear weapons proliferation by Brasilia no longer is a distinct possibility. Could Haiti be the missing ingredient?
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Patterson, COHA Research Associate, 4 (Claudia, 12/14/04, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, “For Nuclear Brazil, It’s Good to Have Friends in High Places”, http://www.coha.org/2004/12/14/for-nuclear-brazil-it%E2%80%99s-good-to-have-friends-in-high-places/, accessed: 7/9/13, ML)
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Secrecy shrouding Brazil’s nuclear capabilities alarmed U.S. nuclear control advocates future nuclear weapons proliferation no longer is a possibility
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Relations are key to prevent prolif
| 391 | 35 | 150 | 53 | 6 | 19 | 0.113208 | 0.358491 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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1,754 |
The Bush administration should continue its good start, bolstering friendly U.S.-Brazil relations. Lula's administration welcomed the White House's two invitations and U.S. recognition of Brazil's special role in South America. Washington must remain attentive to Bras�lia's interests. It would be good policy to systematically solicit Brazil's views on the full range of issues relevant to the hemisphere and take serious account of them. That will require Washington to pursue a less unilateral approach, particularly in South America, and be willing to accept compromises on its policies and programs. No U.S. administration yet has been able to do this on a sustained basis, and it may be particularly difficult for the Bush White House
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"The Reluctant Partner" by Peter Hakim, Jan/Feb 2004 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/59537/peter-hakim/the-reluctant-partner
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The Bush administration should continue its good start, bolstering friendly U.S.-Brazil relations Washington must remain attentive to Bras�lia's interests. It would be good policy to systematically solicit Brazil's views on the full range of issues relevant to the hemisphere and take serious account of them. That will require Washington to pursue a less unilateral approach, particularly in South America, and be willing to accept compromises on its policies and programs.
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The US must take Brazil’s input into account or risk killing relations
| 740 | 71 | 474 | 113 | 12 | 70 | 0.106195 | 0.619469 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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1,755 |
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in an interview that aired Saturday night that the leaks regarding the Obama administration’s surveillance programs are “literally gut-wrenching” and that the administration has requested a criminal investigation into who leaked the information. “For me, it is literally – not figuratively – literally gut-wrenching to see this happen because of the huge, grave damage it does to our intelligence capabilities,” Clapper told NBC News’s Andrea Mitchell. Clapper accused the media of using “hyperbole” in describing the programs. The National Security Agency’s collection of phone records was first reported by the Guardian, while a separate program that tracks Internet data of foreigners as revealed by the Guardian and the Washington Post. He said the NSA has asked the Justice Department to find whoever leaked the information. “I think we all feel profoundly offended by that,” Clapper said. “This is someone who, for whatever reason, has chosen to violate a sacred trust for this country. And so I hope we’re able to track down whoever’s doing this, because it is extremely damaging to, and it affects the safety and security of this country.”
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Washington Post ’13 (Aaron Blake, reporter for the Washington Post, “Clapper: Leaks are ‘literally gut-wrenching,’ leaker being sought”; The Washington Post; 6-09-2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/06/09/clapper-leaks-are-literally-gut-wrenching-leaker-being-sought/)
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Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said that the leaks regarding the Obama administration are “literally gut-wrenching” because of the , grave damage it does to our intelligence capabilities it is extremely damaging to, and it affects the safety and security of this country.”
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Leaks are inevitable and occurring during the Obama administration NOW
| 1,200 | 70 | 289 | 188 | 10 | 44 | 0.053191 | 0.234043 |
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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The case of cachaça, the stiff sugar cane spirit used in Brazil’s national cocktail, the caipirinha, is probably not the first thing on the mind of US President Barack Obama as he prepares for a visit from his Brazilian counterpart, Dilma Rousseff, next week.¶ But reversing a longstanding US refusal to recognise the Brazilian drink as distinctive from Caribbean rum – thereby subjecting it to adverse tax treatment on rum imports designed to protect producers in the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico – is one of several relatively easy “deliverables” that Mr Obama could offer Ms Rousseff when she arrives on April 9.¶ Stubborn trade disputes and differences in approach to geopolitics have traditionally clouded what is otherwise a mature if somewhat standoffish friendship between the dominant powers of the Americas. Brazil wants recognition from the US for its growing geopolitical clout, most importantly its bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, but without sacrificing its neutrality in the process. Washington, meanwhile, wants a better idea of what Brazil, known for its pragmatism on foreign relations, actually stands for.¶ “Relations between Brazil and the US have historically been very broad but also relatively shallow,” said Paulo Sotero, director of the Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington. Once tempted to treat Brazil as just another, if slightly more important, Latin American country, the US is increasingly being challenged to acknowledge its growing role as an international player on the back of its fast economic growth.A surging middle class in Brazil has created new markets for US multinationals, ranging from McDonald’s and Pepsi to General Motors. But even as the total volume of trade has grown, the relative importance of the US to Brazil’s economy has declined. China has overtaken the US as Brazil’s biggest trading partner and new investor.¶ At the same time, Brazil has become increasingly concerned about what it sees as “unbalanced” trade with China, which imports Brazilian commodities but few of its manufactured goods. The US by contrast is one of the biggest markets for Brazilian aircraft maker Embraer, one of Latin America’s flagship industrial companies.¶ Relations between leaders of the US and Brazil have traditionally been warm – Mr Obama once called former Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva “the man”. But in practice, Brazil’s independent stance on foreign affairs – it regularly abstains in votes on sanctions against oppressive regimes in the Middle East and on other issues – has grated with the US. In particular, Mr Lula da Silva upset Washington when he led an attempt to forge an independent civilian nuclear deal with US arch-enemy Iran in 2010.¶ Yet while Mr Lula da Silva’s Iran adventure was politically costly in terms of relations with Washington, it was a sign of Brazil’s diplomatic coming of age, the Council on Foreign Relations think-tank said in a report last year. “Brazil’s participation alerted the major powers to its presence on global security issues and served notice that Brazil would remain a significant international actor,” the report, Global Brazil and US-Brazil Relations, said.¶ With the election of Ms Rousseff in late 2010, Mr Obama set out to repair the relationship. He visited Brasília three months after she took office, describing Brazil as an “equal” partner and acknowledging though not openly supporting Brazil’s aspiration for a permanent seat on the Security Council.¶ The challenge for both sides is where to take the relationship now. The US has already lifted a tariff on Brazilian ethanol imports – an important breakthrough. It could restart a US Air Force contract for 20 Embraer attack aircraft that it abruptly cancelled earlier this year. It is also making it easier for Brazilians to get visas. And it could also, of course, recognise cachaça as something distinctly Brazilian, rather than lumping it in with other Latin American rum.¶ Most significant, however, would be for the US to offer formal support for Brazil’s aspirations to join the Security Council. Proponents argue this would put the ball in Brazil’s court, forcing it to become a more responsible contributor to the world order. Indeed, some argue that this sort of acknowledgment as an equal partner is all that Brazil has ever really wanted from Washington.¶ “Brazil doesn’t want a trade deal from the US, it doesn’t want military co-operation,” says João Augusto de Castro Neves, political analyst at Eurasia Group. “It just wants recognition and that only costs a few words.”¶
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Leahy 2012 [Joe, FT’s Brazil bureau chief, "Brazil-US Relations near Turning Point." Financial Times. 1 Apr. 2012. <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/14a03b20-7c18-11e1-9100-00144feab49a.html>.]
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Stubborn trade disputes and differences in approach to geopolitics have traditionally clouded what is otherwise a mature if somewhat standoffish friendship Brazil wants recognition from the US for its growing geopolitical clout, most importantly its bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, but without sacrificing its neutrality in the process. Washington, meanwhile, wants a better idea of what Brazil, known for its pragmatism on foreign relations, actually stands for. Relations between Brazil and the US have historically been very broad but also relatively shallow, . Once tempted to treat Brazil as just another, if slightly more important, Latin American country, the US is increasingly being challenged to acknowledge its growing role as an international player on the back of its fast economic growth. the relative importance of the US to Brazil’s economy has declined Brazil’s independent stance on foreign affairs – it regularly abstains in votes on sanctions against oppressive regimes in the Middle East and on other issues – has grated with the US. I Mr Lula da Silva upset Washington when he led an attempt to forge an independent civilian nuclear deal with US arch-enemy Iran in 2010 Brazil doesn’t want a trade deal from the US, it doesn’t want military co-operation,
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Brazil doesn’t want engagement with the US—relations shallow
| 4,634 | 60 | 1,297 | 744 | 8 | 207 | 0.010753 | 0.278226 |
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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Yet, when it comes to foreign policy and trade relations, there are constant tensions. These could be addressed soon, with reports that President Dilma Rousseff will make a formal state visit to the US, the first of a Brazilian leader in two decades. To the irritation of Washington, Brazil has failed to extend support on issues such as the 2011 intervention in Libya, where Brasilia thought the Western powers were jumping the gun and abused the UN mandate to pursue regime change. For its part, Brazil has been irked by US failure to support its long-held ambition for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Washington, traditionally the main foreign-arms supplier to Brazil, won't overlook Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev's February visit to Brazil to sign an agreement on selling air-defence equipment with President Rousseff. But the highest-profile disagreement between the two has been over the Brazilian attempt, along with Turkey, to break the deadlock between Iran and the West over Tehran's nuclear programme. Former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva went to Iran with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in May 2010 to sign a confidence-building deal with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to send Iranian-enriched uranium for reprocessing abroad, so it could not be diverted to any weapons programme. The US immediately rejected the deal. Then secretary of state Hillary Clinton accused Brazil and Turkey of making the world "a more dangerous place". Then Foreign Minister Celso Amorim insisted the US had been kept abreast of the negotiations; when asked at an international security conference later in the year why the US had rejected the deal, he said, "Some people just can't take 'yes' for an answer." He suggests the Americans were happy to go along with the initiative because they thought it would fail; when it succeeded, they turned on Brasilia. The agreement was essentially the same as a proposed deal that Iran and the UN Security Council's permanent five powers, plus Germany, almost signed eight months before in Geneva - another reason Brazil was taken aback by the US condemnation. US diplomats and analysts take the view that Brazil is often unhelpful, by which they seem to mean it doesn't always support US policy. For their part, the Brazilians say the US doesn't want to accept that the world has changed, and Washington can't accept that it must deal with emerging economies on an equal footing. The countries have also had their share of trade disputes over products from orange juice to cotton, whereas the US has tried to limit access to its markets for Brazilian produce. Since the 2008 crash, Brazil has accused the US of currency manipulation by using quantitative easing to devalue the dollar.
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Burnett ’13 (Alistair Burnett, MA in History from Edinburgh University, editor of "The World Tonight", a BBC News programme, “Brazil balks at serving as junior partner to the US”, The Nation, 6-12-2013, http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Brazil-balks-at-serving-as-junior-partner-to-the-U-30208163.html)
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when it comes to foreign policy and trade relations there are constant tensions. To the irritation of Washington, Brazil has failed to extend support on issues such as the 2011 intervention in Libya Brazil has been irked by US failure to support its long-held ambition for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. the highest-profile disagreement between the two has been over the Brazilian attempt to break the deadlock between Iran and the West Former Brazilian president Silva went to Iran with to sign a deal with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to send Iranian-enriched uranium for reprocessing abroad, so it could not be diverted to any weapons programme. The US immediately rejected the deal. secretary of state Hillary Clinton accused Brazil of making the world "a more dangerous place". US diplomats and analysts take the view that Brazil is often unhelpful Brazilians say the US doesn't want to accept that the world has changed, and Washington can't accept that it must deal with emerging economies on an equal footing. The countries have also had their share of trade disputes over products from orange juice to cotton Since the 2008 crash, Brazil has accused the US of currency manipulation by using quantitative easing to devalue the dollar.
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Brazil-US relations suck—no cooperation
| 2,767 | 39 | 1,257 | 452 | 4 | 206 | 0.00885 | 0.455752 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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Brazil, too, has blinders. Like the US, it's a huge, complex country more concerned with matters at home than abroad. Like the US, it supports the interests of domestic constituencies, such as the huge agribusinesses producing soya; this brings it into direct competition with the US, also a major agricultural producer. With its emerging economy and burgeoning economic links with Asia and Africa, Brasilia has begun to project influence on the world stage, with an expanded diplomatic service and new embassies across the global South. This, added to its distinct policy agenda, means it rubs against American interests more often. Brazil sees itself as a consensus-seeker in global affairs and emphasises soft power, eschewing use of military force in international affairs. In many ways, Brazil represents an implicit challenge to the US's sense of its role in the world. A strong thread through US foreign policy has been the idea of US exceptionalism - that the US serves as an example to the world. In recent years, this ideology has tempted US theorists like Samuel Huntington or Ivo Daalder to think that if only the whole world were democratic and shared "its values" there could be a true Pax Americana. Yet Brazil is a democracy that does not always agree with the US, especially when it comes to use of force. Crucially, unlike India, which is culturally and geographically distant from the US, Brazil is a New World society and political system, and as such represents a potentially attractive alternative model to the US for emerging economies. This challenge, added to different approaches in how international affairs should be conducted, and the reluctance of Washington to accept the changing global balance of power, produces fundamental tensions between Brasilia and Washington, not easily resolved even if there was a will in either capital to do so.
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Burnett ’13 (Alistair Burnett, MA in History from Edinburgh University, editor of "The World Tonight", a BBC News programme, “Brazil balks at serving as junior partner to the US”, The Nation, 6-12-2013, http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Brazil-balks-at-serving-as-junior-partner-to-the-U-30208163.html)
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Brazil, i s a huge, complex country more concerned with matters at home than abroad it supports the interests of domestic constituencies, such as huge agribusinesses this brings it into direct competition with the US Brazil represents an implicit challenge to the US's sense of its role in the world. A strong thread through US foreign policy has been the idea of US exceptionalism - that the US serves as an example to the world. Yet Brazil is a democracy that does not always agree with the US, especially when it comes to use of force. different approaches in international affairs and the reluctance of Washington to accept the changing global balance of power, produces fundamental tensions between Brasilia and Washington, not easily resolved even if there was a will in either capital to do so.
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No will for cooperation, Brazil disagrees with US foreign policy
| 1,872 | 64 | 801 | 305 | 10 | 136 | 0.032787 | 0.445902 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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1,759 |
UNASUR is therefore another example in which balancing the U.S. was a main driving force in the Brazilian foreign policy. Despite a range of disagreements between Brazil and Venezuela, and their own dispute for sub-regional hegemony in South America, both countries share the discontentment with U.S.’s historical influence in Latin America, and also, in particular, with its militarized approach to the narcotraffic conflicts in Colombia. The inclusion of security in UNASUR’s objectives, and the creation of the South American Defence Council (SDC) under its auspices, has been a novelty to South American practices of multilateral cooperation. These developments have not only affected the bilateral relations between the U.S. and South American countries, but also the role of the OAS in the region. Its collective defense component, the Inter american Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (TIAR) was discredited after the U.S. chose to support Great Britain and NATO over Argentina during the Falklands War in 1982, and practically dead after Mexico renounced it in 2002 (Ribeiro-Hoffmann/Herz 2010).
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Brand et al ’12 (Alexander Brand, Lecturer and Post-Doc Researcher at the Department of Political Science at the University of Mainz, M.A. in Political Science, Philosophy and Media & Communication Sciences; Susan McEwen-Fial, Lecturer at the Department of Political Science at the University of Mainz; Wolfgang Muno, Professor of Political Science; Andrea Ribeiro Hoffmann, Lecturer at the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy; “BRICs and U.S. Hegemony: Theoretical Reflections on Shifting Power Patterns and Empirical Evidence from Latin America”; Mainz Papers on International and European Politics, Mainz: Chair of International Relations, Johannes Gutenberg University; April 2012; https://international.politics.uni-mainz.de/files/2012/10/mpiep04.pdf”
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UNASUR is another example in which balancing the U.S. was a main driving force in the Brazilian foreign policy. Despite a range of disagreements between Brazil and Venezuela, and their own dispute for sub-regional hegemony in South America, both countries share the discontentment with U.S.’s historical influence in Latin America
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Brazil hates U.S. interference in Latin America
| 1,100 | 47 | 330 | 165 | 7 | 50 | 0.042424 | 0.30303 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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Today, China is Brazil's major trading partner, but U.S. trade with Brazil is also flourishing, expanding almost 10% a year during much of the past decade. The $15-trillion U.S. economy is an essential market for Brazil's industrial production and the primary source of foreign capital and new technologies needed for longer-term growth and productivity. Yet the U.S. and Brazil have not signed a single major economic pact for two decades — a period when Washington reached trade accords with 11 other Latin American countries. Nor have the U.S. and Brazil cooperated effectively in global or regional economic forums. Fundamental differences remain unresolved on several highly contentious issues: U.S. tariffs and subsidies that block Brazilian agricultural sales, Brazil's import barriers to services and manufactured goods, and deep discord over intellectual property. The prospering bilateral economic ties that exist reflect the energy and initiative of business and financial communities, not the two governments. But beyond disagreements on economic issues, U.S.-Brazil relations are strained by geopolitical tensions. Particularly galling for Brazil has been Washington's reluctance to support its bid for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council, even though President Obama gave U.S. backing to India two years ago. For its part, Brazil has pursued its global aspirations largely by standing apart from the U.S. and emphasizing its differences on critical regional and world issues, most disturbingly on Iran's nuclear program.
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Hakim 2012 [Peter, senior fellow of the Inter-American Dialogue, "A U.S.-Brazil Respect Deficit." Los Angeles Times. 09 Apr. 2012. <http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/09/opinion/la-oe-hakim-brazil-policy-20120409>]
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U.S. and Brazil have not signed a single major economic pact for two decades — a period when Washington reached trade accords with 11 other Latin American countries. Nor have the U.S. and Brazil cooperated effectively in global or regional economic forums. Fundamental differences remain unresolved on several highly contentious issues: U.S. tariffs and subsidies that block Brazilian agricultural sales, Brazil's import barriers to services and manufactured goods, and deep discord over intellectual property. U.S.-Brazil relations are strained by geopolitical tensions Brazil has pursued its global aspirations largely by standing apart from the U.S. and emphasizing its differences on critical regional and world issues, most disturbingly on Iran's nuclear program.
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US-Brazil relations strained—multiple warrants
| 1,544 | 47 | 768 | 229 | 4 | 110 | 0.017467 | 0.480349 |
Consult Brazil Counterplan - Gonzaga 2013.html5
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Gonzaga (GDI)
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2013
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As in Argentina where millions increasingly protest over basically similar grievances, on-going demonstrations in Brazil might be a sign of much worse things to come. After the dreadful “Arab Spring” of the past three years that rained so much death, destruction and chaos on the Muslim World - from Egypt in 2011 to Turkey today and especially the civil wars triggered in Libya and Syria - the question now is: are we seeing something similar starting in Latin America? A “LatAm Spring” being tailored and adjusted to this region’s social and political climate, quite different from the Arab World’s? Uncannily, these unexpected riots started only a few days after US Vice President Joe Biden paid a state visit to Brazil, meeting with top Brazilian authorities saying that “stronger trade ties and closer cooperation in education, science and other fields should usher in a new era in U.S.- Brazil relations in 2013”. The truth is otherwise, however: an increasingly strong Brazil worries the US, even though Ms Rousseff has moved away from her predecessor Ignazio “Lula” Da Silva’s closer ties with Iran and Venezuela. This wasn’t enough to make Washington happy. In recent years Brazil beefed up its naval and air forces in part with Russian hardware. Last February, for instance, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev visited Brazil sealing an agreement to supply high-tech air defense missile systems to protect next year’s World Cup and the 2016 Olympics. An energy alliance was also agreed. Brazil being part of the BRICS alliance, Russia has become quite central to its strategies and the US knows that. A strong Brazil is clearly a “problem”, and what better way to debilitate a country than to have it thrown into social and civil strife?
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Salbuchi ’13 (Adrian Salbuchi, international political analyst, researcher and consultant. Author of several books on geopolitics in Spanish and English; RT Op-Edge: Russia Today is an international multilingual Russian-based television network, 6-21-2013, http://rt.com/op-edge/brazil-protests-latam-spring-056/)
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on-going demonstrations in Brazil might be a sign of much worse things to come these unexpected riots started only a few days after US Vice President Joe Biden paid a state visit to Brazil, saying that “stronger trade ties and closer cooperation in education, science and other fields should usher in a new era in U.S.- Brazil relations in 2013”. The truth is otherwise, however: an increasingly strong Brazil worries the US, A strong Brazil is clearly a “problem”, and what better way to debilitate a country than to have it thrown into social and civil strife?
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A powerful Brazil is a U.S. problem
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The United States-Brazil relationship has remained positive and productive notwithstanding the emphasis of Lula's first administration's diplomacy on South-South cooperation, South American integration, reform of the United Nations Security Council, and the still inconclusive negotiations of the Doha Round of the World Trade Organization. On January 24th, the Brazil Institute of the Woodrow Wilson Center held a conference with the outgoing Brazilian Ambassador to the United States in order to review the past three years of the bilateral dialogue and explore the prospects for deepening the relationship—a goal which both governments have already embraced and which will be furthered by President Lula's planned trip to the United States this spring.
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Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2007 [January ,“The Future of US Brazilian Relations”, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=1419&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&event_id=213989, accessed:7/9/13, ML]
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The U S Brazil relationship has remained positive and productive the Brazil Institute of the Woodrow Wilson Center held a conference with the Brazilian Ambassador to the U S to review the past three years of the bilateral dialogue
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And, relations are resilient
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As the world’s largest producers of biofuels, the United States and Brazil have recently pledged to embark upon a joint strategy of energy cooperation to promote technology-sharing and to encourage ethanol production and consumption internationally. On February 20, the Brazil Institute of the Woodrow Wilson Center convened a conference of leading experts from both countries to assess the agricultural implications of the increased production and trade of biofuels as an alternative to hydrocarbons. The discussion led to plans for the creation of a Global Biofuels Policy Research Network to be housed at the Wilson Center in close cooperation with partner institutions. The network’s research activities will focus on biofuels policy alternatives, as well as both the environmental and social impact of biofuels policies. The energy policies that the United States and Brazil follow have implications far beyond their own borders, argued Wallace Tyner, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University. Therefore, the global consequences of energy policy alternatives must be analyzed within the international context and be conscious of market interconnections. For example, ethanol production has been subsidized in the United States since 1978. But given favorable market conditions of crude oil prices topping 70 U.S. dollars a barrel, ethanol production has now become economically viable. The United States produced 8 billion gallons of ethanol last year, and is set to expand its output to 11 billion in 2007. Ethanol currently constitutes approximately 3.6 percent of U.S. gasoline consumption on a volumetric basis, and 2.5 percent on an energy equivalent basis. Since January 2007, however, agricultural consequences have reduced the profitability of ethanol: the price of corn is rising. Ethanol producers are still breaking even, but the relative decline in profits has led to the postponement of new plant production and slowdown of the industry’s growth. Tyner detailed six policy alternatives for U.S. energy policy. The first is retaining the current 51 cents a gallon U.S. federal subsidy. Total ethanol subsidies are projected to reach U.S. 4 billion for 2007. The likely consequence is continued growth until rising corn prices choke off ethanol profitability—raising international food prices and upsetting both consumers and livestock producers. While the logical assumption is that higher agricultural prices would help the world’s poor (around 70 percent of which rely upon agriculture), the actual impact on poverty would be far more complicated and quite difficult to estimate. Concern for higher corn prices leads to the second policy alternative, which is reducing the amount of the federal ethanol subsidy. Lowering the subsidy down to 30 cents a gallon would help lower the price of corn.
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Budny 07- (Daniel Budny, April 2007, "The Global Dynamics of Biofuels: Potential supply and demand for ethanol and biodiesel in the coming decade," Brazil Institute Special Report from the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars Issue No. 3, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/Brazil_SR_e3.pdf) “Emerson Kloss, a diplomat at the trade… key step in this direction.”
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As the world’s largest producers of biofuels, the United States and Brazil have recently pledged to embark upon a joint strategy of energy cooperation to promote technology-sharing and to encourage ethanol production and consumption internationally The discussion led to plans for the creation of a Global Biofuels Policy Research Network to be housed at the Wilson Center in close cooperation with partner institutions The network’s research activities will focus on biofuels policy alternatives, as well as both the environmental and social impact of biofuels policies The energy policies that the United States and Brazil follow have implications far beyond their own borders ethanol production has now become economically viable The United States produced 8 billion gallons of ethanol last year, and is set to expand its output to 11 billion in 2007. The likely consequence is continued growth until rising corn prices choke off ethanol profitability—raising international food prices and upsetting both consumers and livestock producers. the actual impact on poverty would be far more complicated and quite difficult to estimate
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US Brazilian relations are key to expanding the use of biofuels and energy cooperation internationally
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Once upon a time, as many fairy tales start, the United States was the prevailing force in Latin America. It had a coherent policy for its southern neighbors, and its opinions mattered to those who governed in the region. Despite President Barack Obama's recent trip to Mexico and Costa Rica, and Vice President Joe Biden's upcoming trip to the region, that is no more. The days when John F. Kennedy created the Alliance for Progress and was a hero to the young throughout the western hemisphere have been gone for more than half a century. The time when Jimmy Carter pledged to back only those governments that respected human rights and encouraged that caudillos be ousted is also a historical footnote. True, the world has changed. The attacks of September 11, 2001 made everyone look to the East; to Iraq, to Afghanistan, to Iran, Syria and other countries in the Middle East. Israel is still crucial to American foreign policy, more so now that militants are willing to die to kill Americans and Israelis. Latin America also changed when the late Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez was elected. The rising price of oil gave Chávez riches beyond belief and he began sharing it with similar-minded leaders in Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Ecuador, Uruguay and Argentina; just to name a few. Colombia once depended greatly on the Plan Colombia assistance from the United States to fight the FARC guerrillas and the drug lords that governed much of the country. The emphasis on the Plan Colombia since Juan Manuel Santos took office has decreased. Santos also believes in negotiations with the FARC and closer ties to those who govern in Venezuela. Mexico counted on American intelligence assistance and money to fight the drug cartels until Obama's visit to Enrique Peña Nieto, recently elected president. The communique at the end of the meeting talked about new economic cooperation between the two nations and how together they would fight the drug cartels. Not highlighted was the Mexican-imposed position that the United States agents would no longer be welcome in their country and that the cooperation would be respectful of their sovereign rights. Peña Nieto, the candidate of the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) wanted a different approach to the war on drugs; one that would mitigate the violence that had killed thousands of Mexicans in the last decade. Finally, China has helped change the equation. After the fall of the Soviet Union and the Berlin Wall, for several years the United States was the only super power. When American presidents spoke, the world listened. Now China offers both a challenge to the United States, as a second super power, and has become an alternative economic trading partner for countries throughout the world. Still, it is inconceivable that American media and officials pay so little attention to the region. Maybe those around President Obama have not told him that Iran has close ties with Argentina, Cuba and Venezuela. Certainly the administration must know Cuba and Venezuela are so close that many critics of President Nicolás Maduro are now saying Cubans are helping to keep him in power. They talk, only part in jest, that there is a new country in the region called Cubazuela – the alliance between Cuba's Raúl Castro and Maduro's supporters is so close. It is true all have heard the main culprit of the drug trade in the world is American and European consumption. Yet the United States has waged war on the producers and importers, and not on the consumers at home. Seldom has Latin America been further from American influence. Many of the leftists' presidents in the region consider the United States their enemy. Others maintain cordial, or even friendly relations with Washington, but are quick to negotiate economic deals with China. The task is not easy, granted. Yet it would help if the United States and the Obama Administration articulated a policy for its neighbors in Latin America. They should not be a second thought in America foreign policy. The region deserves better. So does the United States. This country needs to improve those ties or continue to lose status as a premier world power. This is no fairy tale.
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Martinez ’13 (Guillermo I., Columnist, “America losing influence throughout Latin America” May 23, 2013, The Sun Sentinel, http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2013-05-23/news/fl-gmcol-oped0523-20130523_1_drug-cartels-latin-america-pri)-mikee
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Once upon a time , the United States was the prevailing force in Latin America. Despite Obama's recent trip that is no more the world has changed China has helped change the equation. Now China offers both a challenge to the United States, as a second super power, and has become an alternative economic trading partner for countries throughout the world. it is inconceivable that American media and officials pay so little attention to the region Seldom has Latin America been further from American influence. Many of the leftists' presidents in the region consider the United States their enemy. Others maintain cordial, or even friendly relations with Washington, but are quick to negotiate economic deals with China. it would help if the United States and the Obama Administration articulated a policy for its neighbors in Latin America
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A. Uniqueness: China influence is up and US engagement is down – recent trips pale in comparison to policy.
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To be sure, China may not have a purposeful plan to bring their trade partners into alignment on foreign policy questions. Even if unintentional, however, this “gravitational effect” has a sound economic basis. Developing countries in Africa and Latin America are comparatively much more dependent on China than China is on these countries. In a ten year period, for example, Sudan’s trade with China rose from 1 to 10% of its Gross Domestic Product. That pattern is even starker in a country like Angola, for which trade with China represented 25% of its GDP in 2006. While China certainly needs access to the resources in these countries, the individual countries are far less important to China than China is to these countries. The asymmetry in needs gives China a bargaining advantage that translates into foreign policy outcomes even if not by explicit design. Whether by design or not, the convergence with China’s foreign policy goals is important on at least two levels. First, developing countries in Africa and Latin America may be lulled by the prospect of partnering with a country such as China that does not have an explicit political agenda, as did the United States and Soviet Union during the Cold War, but this appears to be an illusion. Whether this reaches the level of “new colonialism” as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to it remains to be seen, but the economic asymmetries that undergird the relationship make that prospect more likely. A second set of implications deals with the United States. During the same period in which China’s trade with Africa and Latin America and foreign policy convergence have increased, the United States and China have actually diverged in their overall UNGA voting behavior. This suggests something of a zero sum dynamic in which China’s growing trade relations make it easier to attract allies in international forums while US influence is diminishing. Taken together, these trends call for greater engagement on behalf of the United States in the developing world. Since the September 2001 attacks, Washington has dealt with Africa and Latin America through benign neglect and shifted its attention elsewhere. If foreign policy alignment does follow from tighter commercial relations, the US ought to reinvigorate its trade and diplomatic agenda as an important means of projecting influence abroad.
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Kreps ’13 (Sarah E. Kreps & Gustavo A. Flores-Macías are Assistant Professors of Government at Cornell University, “No Strings Attached? Evaluating China’s Trade Relations Abroad,” May 17, 2013, http://thediplomat.com/china-power/no-strings-attached-evaluating-chinas-trade-relations-abroad/)-mikee
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China may not have a purposeful plan to bring their trade partners into alignment on foreign policy questions. Even if unintentional this “gravitational effect” has a sound economic basis. While China certainly needs access to the resources in these countries, the individual countries are far less important to China than China is to these countries. The asymmetry in needs gives China a bargaining advantage that translates into foreign policy outcomes even if not by explicit design. Whether by design or not, the convergence with China’s foreign policy goals is important on at least two levels Latin America may be lulled by the prospect of partnering with a country such as China that does not have an explicit political agenda, as did the United States During the same period in which China’s trade with Latin America have increased, the United States and China have actually diverged This suggests something of a zero sum dynamic in which China’s growing trade relations make it easier to attract allies in international forums while US influence is diminishing Since 2001 Washington has dealt with Latin America through benign neglect and shifted its attention elsewhere. If foreign policy alignment does follow from tighter commercial relations, the US ought to reinvigorate its trade and diplomatic agenda as an important means of projecting influence abroad.
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B. Link: Engagement is zero-sum – China’s power depends on America’s neglect.
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What, then, is the gist of this wild, last-ditch gamble? To put it in a few words: A cornered beast is fighting desperately to survive in a battle with humanity. If you don’t believe me, read some passages directly from the speeches. 1) “We must prepare ourselves for two scenarios. If our biological weapons succeed in the surprise attack [on the US], the Chinese people will be able to keep their losses at a minimum in the fight against the U.S. If, however, the attack fails and triggers a nuclear retaliation from the U.S., China would perhaps suffer a catastrophe in which more than half of its population would perish. That is why we need to be ready with air defense systems for our big and medium-sized cities. Whatever the case may be, we can only move forward fearlessly for the sake of our Party and state and our nation’s future, regardless of the hardships we have to face and the sacrifices we have to make. The population, even if more than half dies, can be reproduced. But if the Party falls, everything is gone, and forever gone!” 2) “In any event, we, the CCP, will never step down from the stage of history! We’d rather have the whole world, or even the entire globe, share life and death with us than step down from the stage of history!!! Isn’t there a ‘nuclear bondage’ theory? It means that since the nuclear weapons have bound the security of the entire world, all will die together if death is inevitable. In my view, there is another kind of bondage, and that is, the fate our Party is tied up with that of the whole world. If we, the CCP, are finished, China will be finished, and the world will be finished.” 3) “It is indeed brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans. But that is the only path that will secure a Chinese century, a century in which the CCP leads the world. We, as revolutionary humanitarians, do not want deaths. But if history confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of Americans, we’d have to pick the latter, as, for us, it is more important to safeguard the lives of the Chinese people and the life of our Party. That is because, after all, we are Chinese and members of the CCP. Since the day we joined the CCP, the Party’s life has always been above all else!” Since the Party’s life is “above all else,” it would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in its attempt to extend its life. The CCP, which disregards human life, would not hesitate to kill two hundred million Americans, along with seven or eight hundred million Chinese, to achieve its ends. These speeches let the public see the CCP for what it really is. With evil filling its every cell the CCP intends to wage a war against humankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. That is the main theme of the speeches. This theme is murderous and utterly evil. In China we have seen beggars who coerced people to give them money by threatening to stab themselves with knives or pierce their throats with long nails. But we have never, until now, seen such a gangster who would use biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons to threaten the world, that all will die together with him. This bloody confession has confirmed the CCP’s nature: that of a monstrous murderer who has killed 80 million Chinese people and who now plans to hold one billion people hostage and gamble with their lives.
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Rexing, 5 (San, Staff – Epoch Times, The CCP’s Last Ditch Gamble: Biological and Nuclear War, 8-5, http://english.epochtimes.com/ news/5-8-5/30975.html)
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A cornered beast is fighting desperately to survive in a battle with humanity. If you don’t believe me, read some passages directly from the speeches. We must prepare ourselves for two scenarios. If our biological weapons succeed in the surprise attack [on the US], the Chinese people will be able to keep their losses at a minimum in the fight against the U.S. Whatever the case may be, we can only move forward fearlessly for the sake of our Party and state and our nation’s future, regardless of the hardships we have to face and the sacrifices we have to make. The population, even if more than half dies, can be reproduced. But if the Party falls, everything is gone, and forever gone!” In any event, we, the CCP, will never step down from the stage of history! We’d rather have the whole world, or even the entire globe, share life and death with us than step down from the stage of history!!! Isn’t there a ‘nuclear bondage’ theory? It means that since the nuclear weapons have bound the security of the entire world, all will die together if death is inevitable Since the Party’s life is “above all else,” it would not be surprising if the CCP resorts to the use of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in its attempt to extend its life. The CCP, which disregards human life, would not hesitate to kill two hundred million Americans, along with seven or eight hundred million Chinese, to achieve its ends. These speeches let the public see the CCP for what it really is. With evil filling its every cell the CCP intends to wage a war against humankind in its desperate attempt to cling to life. That is the main theme of the speeches.
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2. CCP instability leads to nuclear war.
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For the past decade, Washington has looked with discomfort at China's growing interest in Latin America. But while Beijing's diplomats bulked up on their Spanish and Portuguese, most U.S. policymakers slept soundly, confident that the United States still held a dominant position in the minds of its southern neighbors. In April 2005, the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere held a hearing on China's influence in the hemisphere and concluded that the U.S. position in the Western Hemisphere was much stronger than China's and, moreover, that Beijing's economic engagement in the region did not present a security threat. But that was 2005. In late May of this year, when U.S. Vice President Joe Biden went to Latin America for a three-day, three-country tour, Beijing was hot on his heels. Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Trinidad and Tobago just days after Biden left: Whereas Trinidad and Tobago's prime minister, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, characterized her discussions with Biden as "at times brutal," Xi's stop in Trinidad and Tobago included the unveiling of a children's hospital funded with $150 million from the Chinese government, discussion of energy projects, and meetings with seven Caribbean heads of state. Xi's itinerary took him to Costa Rica and Mexico on June 4 to 6, but his shadow followed Biden all the way to Brazil. In Rio de Janeiro, Biden referred to a new "strategic partnership" between the United States and Brazil, yet his words' impact was undercut by the strategic partnership that Brazil has had with China since 1993 and the much-publicized fact that China overtook the United States as Brazil's largest trading partner in 2009 (trade between China and Brazil exceeded $75 billion in 2012). It's not an accident that Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff made a state visit to China in April 2011, prior to paying one to the United States. Make no mistake: China is now a presence in the region. Xi's trip to Trinidad and Tobago is only the second visit by a Chinese president to the Caribbean -- his predecessor, Hu Jintao, visited communist Cuba in November 2008 -- but China and the Caribbean's economic and political ties have been growing rapidly. On this trip, Xi promised more than $3 billion in loans to 10 Caribbean countries and Costa Rica. Xi's choice of three destinations near the United States, followed by a "shirt-sleeves" summit with U.S. President Barack Obama on June 7 and 8 at the Sunnylands resort in California, sends a subtle message that the new Chinese leadership seeks to engage the United States globally as an equal -- without the deference shown in the past to the United States in countries close to its borders. Ironically, it's the Latin American country closest to the United States where Xi might be able to make up the most ground. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto's engagement with the Chinese president, both at the April summit in Boao, China, and this week in Mexico City, allow him to differentiate himself from his pro-U.S. predecessor, Felipe Calderón. Similarly, Mexico's role in forming the Pacific Alliance, a new subregional organization built around a group of four pro-market, pro-trade countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru) allows Mexico to reassert a leadership role in the Americas, relatively independent of the United States. The challenges arising from China's global engagement should not, however, be confused with the struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union that characterized the Cold War, in which each side actively promoted different, competing concepts for a global order. China does not seek to impose a new ideology on the world, yet the mercantilist way in which it promotes its economic development, combined with its lack of commitment to international norms that it didn't create, makes it more difficult for the United States to conduct business and pursue policy goals in Latin America and other parts of the world. Consider China's ties with the eight countries that make up the leftist Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA). Since 2007, China has loaned $50 billion to Ecuador and Venezuela, the alliance's two largest countries, giving them the financial wherewithal to continue sustaining anti-U.S. policies at home and to advance their cause in the region -- from funding oil alliance Petrocaribe, to setting up teleSUR and Banco del Sur, to sending suitcases of cash to politicians in Argentina. And the willingness of Chinese companies to invest in Venezuela and Ecuador has made it easier for those countries' regimes to nationalize industries and displace undesired Western corporations. China's indifference to those countries' political systems has cleared the way for their devolution to less democratic practices, from the legal actions taken against the leadership of El Universo and other Ecuadorean media, to forcing RCTV off the air in Venezuela and persecuting Venezuelan opponents from Manuel Rosales (now in exile) to former armed forces head Raúl Baduel (now incarcerated). China's no-strings-attached investments enable the regimes to thumb their noses at Western institutions and prevailing international norms regarding respect for contracts, freedom of expression, democracy, and human rights.
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Ellis ’13 (R. Evan is associate professor for Hemispheric Defense Studies, “China's New Backyard: Does Washington realize how deeply Beijing has planted a flag?” JUNE 6, 2013, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/06/china_s_new_backyard_latin_america)
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For the past decade, Washington has looked with discomfort at China's growing interest in Latin America. But while Beijing's diplomats bulked up most U.S. policymakers slept soundly, when Biden went to Latin America Beijing was hot on his heels Xi's itinerary took him to Mexico Make no mistake: China is now a presence in the region the new Chinese leadership seeks to engage the United States globally as an equal -- without the deference shown in the past to the United States in countries close to its borders. it's the Latin American country closest to the United States where Xi might be able to make up the most ground. Mexican President Nieto's engagement with the Chinese president, allow him to differentiate himself Mexico's role in a new subregional organization built around a group of four pro-market, allows Mexico to reassert a leadership role in the Americas, relatively independent of the United States. the mercantilist way in which it promotes its economic development, makes it more difficult for the United States to conduct business and pursue policy goals in Latin America and other parts of the world. the willingness of Chinese companies to invest in Venezuela has made it easier for those countries' regimes to nationalize industries and displace undesired Western corporations. China's no-strings-attached investments enable the regimes to thumb their noses at Western institutions
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China is increasing its engagement with Latin America – they’re winning the influence battle now.
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China concluded its last “Made in China” contract signing sweep across the Latin America’s last week. President Xi Jinping, during his visit last week to Mexico, Costa Rica and Trinidad and Tobago came, signed at least two dozen agreements further consolidating territory the hemisphere. With Brazil, Mexico and Chile as its main customers, Costa Rica’s premiering stadium and trade agreement made by the Chinese, 33% of the oil from Ecuador endorsed as part payment of its investment in infrastructure and Colombia flirting to get an agreement free trade, the China’s influence is increasingly in the daily life in Latin America. Nicaragua is ready to sign with Chinese entrepreneurs in trade for large portion of its territory and its coasts on two oceans to build the second hemisphere canal. A statement from the presidency of Nicaragua confirmed that the National Assembly is drafting a Special Law Initiative for the Development of Infrastructure and Transport Nicaraguan Canal, Free Trade Zones and Infrastructure Associates. According to information provided by the Assembly, the initiative, which aims to start a feasibility study by a company based in Hong Kong, would be approved this week. China has become a strong partner in the region, displacing the United States in several countries. China is the main destination for Brazilian exports andis a vital partner for the economy of Peru. Ecuador and most recently Costa Rica have become increasingly dependenent on China’s economic”. Colombia sells nearly 10,000 million dollars and buys about 3,500 million, while Mexico sells nearly 10 times what it buys: 56.936 million dollars, compared to 5.721 million dollars, according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI ), 2012. The Chinese economy’s appetite for commodities, especially mining and agriculture, is the main reason the nation has to deepened trade relations with Latin American countries, with or without agreements. With a trade balance surplus of 6 billion per year Chinese entrepreneurs have been opened stores in the Colombian capital. Xi Jinping has over 1.3 billion mouths to feed and 950 million people to keep working, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. With that many people China has no choice but to seek to expand trade ties with Latin America.
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Costa Rica News, 6/12 (“China Rooted in Latin America” 2013, http://thecostaricanews.com/china-rooted-in-latin-america/15642)-mikee
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China concluded its last “Made in China” contract signing sweep across the Latin America’s last week President Xi Jinping, during his visit signed at least two dozen agreements further consolidating territory the hemisphere China’s influence is increasingly in the daily life in Latin America China has become a strong partner in the region, displacing the United States in several countries. The Chinese economy’s appetite for commodities, especially mining and agriculture, is the main reason the nation has to deepened trade relations with Latin American countries, with or without agreements. With that many people China has no choice but to seek to expand trade ties with Latin America.
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China’s influence and engagement increasing now, displacing the US.
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Over the past five years, Chinese businesses have been expanding their footprint in Latin America in a number of ways, beginning with enhanced trade to ensure a steady supply of bulk commodities such as oil, copper and soybeans. At this year's Boao Forum for Asia, for the first time a Latin American sub-forum was created that included the participation of several heads of state from the region. Since 2011, China has overtaken the Netherlands to become Latin America’s second biggest investor behind the United States. China has signed a series of large cooperation agreements with Latin American countries in such fields as finance, resources and energy. According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, Sino-Latin American trade grew in 2012 to a total of $261.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.18%. This trend risks undermining the position of the United States as Latin America’s single dominant trading partner. In 2011, the U.S.-Latin American trade volume was $351 billion. Some prominent Chinese have condemned the United States' high-profile Return to Asia strategy, with its intention of “containing China's front door.” Shouldn’t the United States, which put forward the Monroe Doctrine two centuries ago, also question how China is quietly arriving in America’s backyard?
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Xiaoxia, 5/6 (Wang, ECONOMIC OBSERVER/Worldcrunch, “In America's Backyard: China's Rising Influence In Latin America,” May 5, 2013, http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/) -mikee
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Over the past five years, Chinese businesses have been expanding their footprint in Latin America in a number of ways for the first time a Latin American sub-forum was created Since 2011, China ha become Latin America’s second biggest investor China has signed a series of large cooperation agreements with Latin American countries in such fields as finance, resources and energy , Sino-Latin American trade grew in 2012 to a increase of 8.18%. This trend risks undermining the position of the United States as Latin America’s single dominant trading partner
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China influence rising in Latin America.
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Slowly but surely, from a diplomatic standpoint, Mexico is taking steps to reestablish itself as an outspoken, independent and active player, and is engaging emerging and established world powers beyond its neighbor to the North. In April, Peña Nieto’s participation in the conference of the Boao Forum For Asia—a China-based forum similar to the World Economic Forum—and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Mexico this week are a clear example of Mexico’s global pivot. President Xi’s visit, foreshadows a stronger bilateral commercial and diplomatic relationship. Fox and Calderón did very little to maintain the strategic alliance that the PRI had built with China, and Calderón angered the Chinese government in 2011 when he received the Dalai Lama at the presidential residence. But now, officials from the federal government and representatives from the private sector involved in President Xi’s visit are predicting the launch of a strategic, integral and functional alliance between China and Mexico. They are not exaggerating: as agreements reached during the visit show, this is much more than Xi making a courtesy call. Amapola Grijalva, vice president of the Mexico-China Chamber of Commerce, told journalist Darío Celis in a June 3 radio interview that “agreements reached between the two delegations will help narrow the commercial balance gap between the countries, will open up a huge market for Mexican exporters, and will allow China to provide financing for important heavy infrastructure projects in the near future.” Grijalva estimates that “during Peña’s administration, up to $81 billion coming from China could go into financing new industrial naval port complexes, airports, telecom projects, and railway transportation systems.” A joint declaration signed and issued by Peña Nieto and Xi on June 4 summarizes the amount of work already invested in the renewed Mexico-China relationship. The two leaders signed memorandums of understanding to formally establish cooperation in energy, mining, emerging industries, infrastructure, private sector collaboration, university alliances, trade, banking, and even the oil industry. In addition, it was announced that sanitary measures have been met to reopen the Chinese market to pork from Mexico, and an agreement was reached to allow all forms of tequila into China. Additionally, to promote tourism in both countries, Peña Nieto and Xi expressed their mutual interest in expanding international flights connecting Mexico and China and in establishing a working relationship between their tourism ministries. In the political arena, Peña Nieto took the opportunity to amend Calderón’s diplomatic gaffe by ratifying the “One China” principle. Peña Nieto stated that it is Mexico’s position that both Taiwan and the Tibet are part of Chinese territory and Tibetan affairs are an internal issue for China. In the statement, both parties declared that “given the improvement of diverse mechanisms in the bilateral cooperation, the conditions are such that Mexico-China relations can be elevated to a new level of benefit to both nations.” They also established a calendar of working visits from high-level government officials to implement the agreements and scheduled future meetings during upcoming international forums including the UN, APEC and the G20. As President Xi’s visit shows, the coming years are certain to bring Mexico and China diplomatically closer and to catalyze economic growth, trade and development in a mutually beneficial way—while breaking Mexico’s trade dependency on the U.S. market.
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Shahani, 6/5 (Arjan, “Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Visit to Mexico,” AQ, 2013, http://www.americasquarterly.org/chinese-president-xi-jinping-visit-to-mexico)-mikee
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Slowly but surely Mexico is taking steps to reestablish itself and is engaging emerging and established world powers the North Nieto’s participation in a China-based forum and Chinese President visit to Mexico are a clear example of Mexico’s global pivot now, officials from the federal government and representatives from the private sector are predicting the launch of a strategic, integral and functional alliance between China and Mexico. They are not exaggerating: as agreements reached during the visit show, this is much more than Xi making a courtesy call A joint declaration summarizes n the renewed Mexico-China relationship. to formally establish cooperation in energy, mining, emerging industries, infrastructure, private sector collaboration, university alliances, trade, banking, and even the oil industr the coming years are certain to bring Mexico and China diplomatically closer while breaking Mexico’s trade dependency on the U.S. market.
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A. Uniqueness: China is stepping up its engagement with Mexico and are on the verge of forming a cooperative and strategic alliance.
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China has became a critical economic partner for Venezuela over the past decade. By means of the "China-Venezuela Joint Fund" and other mechanisms, China's policy banks have offered more in loans to Venezuela than to any other country. But what is the likelihood of continued high-level, bilateral cooperation in a post-Chávez political environment? Tsinghua University’s Matt Ferchen, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher, Sun Hongbo, and Venezuelan journalist, Andrés Rojas Jiménez, debated the future of China-Venezuela relations at the Inter-American Dialogue on March 22nd. Sun Hongbo opened with an optimistic view of the China-Venezuela relationship. Economic complementarity, he suggested, will ensure cooperation between the two nations for the foreseeable future. With respect to China’s $40-$50 billion in loans to Venezuela, Sun also foresees little risk, noting that China’s loan contracts have sufficient precautions built in. According to Matt Ferchen, however, the strength of the China-Venezuela “strategic partnership” will likely be tested in the coming years. China is unprepared for the possibility of significant political and economic instability in Venezuela, he added, and is fearful of losing its preferred status in a post-Chávez government. Ferchen agreed that economic complementarity exists between China and Venezuela, and will play a role in future engagement, but suggested that the extent of future cooperation will depend on economic and political developments in Venezuela. Andrés Rojas Jiménez explained that China’s loans have done little to strengthen Venezuela’s economy. Following the creation of the China-Venezuela Joint Fund, oil exports to China jumped from 95,000 bpd in 2007 to 460,000 bpd in 2012. But Venezuela’s external debt also increased considerably. In 2012, Chinese loans accounted for 25 percent of Venezuela’s total external debt. Venezuela is also increasingly dependent upon oil exports for economic growth; exports of non-traditional goods are at the same levels as a decade ago. PdVSA, furthermore, has consistently fallen short of the eventual 800,000 bpd promised to China. Chinese entities recently criticized Venezuela for delays on certain projects, including some in the Orinoco. Panelists insisted that however relations progress, there is a need for greater transparency and accountability in financing agreements and loan disbursement. All agreed that China and Venezuela will be taking a closer look at the nature of bilateral relations in the coming months.
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Myers ’13 (Margaret, Director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue. Graduate work at The George Washington University. Studied US-China relations at the Johns Hopkins University. “The Future of China-Venezuela Relations,” Saturday, March 30, 2013, Inter-American Dialogue, http://www.chinaandlatinamerica.com/2013/03/the-future-of-china-venezuela-relations.html)-mikee
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China has became a critical economic partner for Venezuela over the past decade By means of the "China-Venezuela Joint Fund" and other mechanisms, China's policy banks have offered more in loans to Venezuela than to any other country. But what is the likelihood of continued high-level, bilateral cooperation in a post-Chávez political environment? T Hongbo opened with an optimistic view of the China-Venezuela relationship. Economic complementarity, , will ensure cooperation between the two nations for the foreseeable future however, the strength of the China-Venezuela “strategic partnership” will likely be tested in the coming years Ferchen agreed that economic complementarity exists between China and Venezuela, and will play a role in future engagement, but suggested that the extent of future cooperation will depend on economic and political developments in Venezuela hina and Venezuela will be taking a closer look at the nature of bilateral relations in the coming months.
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China is increasing engagement in Venezuela but it’s on the brink.
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DIFFERENT US PRESIDENTS have had different attitudes to the Caribbean, from President Ronald Reagan, who made a high-profile visit to Jamaica (and ordered the invasion of Grenada to) to Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, both of whom maintain special relationships with Haiti. But President Barack Obama’s attitude to the Caribbean has been characterized largely by disengagement. The biggest Caribbean issue for Obama seems to have been his repeated pledge to close the US military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba where foreign-born terrorism suspects are currently detained. In April of 2009, Obama traveled to Trinidad and Tobago for the Fifth Summit of the Americas, pointing to mutual respect between the United States and the Caribbean, and launching the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative. The President also spoke about Cuba. Since then, however, US engagement with the Caribbean seems to have lessened as other powers like the United Kingdom and China have stepped up their presence. Four years after the Fifth Summit, US Vice President Joe Biden arrived in Port of Spain to discuss regional security and energy. But Obama was conspicuous by his absence, particularly in light of the fact that China’s President, Xi Jinping, actually visited the country just days after Biden’s departure. The question is, why hasn’t Obama visited the Caribbean on an official basis, other than a stop at an Organization of American States summit? There are a host of issues on which he could focus — from Caribbean deportees to Caribbean crime to Caribbean debt — and it seems that it is time to act.
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Rowe, 6/15 (David, an attorney in Jamaica and Florida and an adjunct law professor at the University of Miami, “Is it Time For President Obama to Visit the Caribbean?” 2013, http://www.caribjournal.com/2013/06/15/op-ed-is-it-time-for-president-obama-to-visit-the-caribbean/)-mikee
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Obama’s attitude to the Caribbean has been characterized largely by disengagement. The biggest Caribbean issue for Obama seems to have been Cuba In April of 2009, Obama traveled to Trinidad and Tobago The President also spoke about Cuba. Since then, however, US engagement with the Caribbean seems to have lessened as other powers like China have stepped up their presence.
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A. US engagement in Cuba is down, allowing China to expand.
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CARACAS, Venezuela — As Washington tries to rebuild its strained relationships in Latin America, China is stepping in vigorously, offering countries across the region large amounts of money while they struggle with sharply slowing economies, a plunge in commodity prices and restricted access to credit. In recent weeks, China has been negotiating deals to double a development fund in Venezuela to $12 billion, lend Ecuador at least $1 billion to build a hydroelectric plant, provide Argentina with access to more than $10 billion in Chinese currency and lend Brazil’s national oil company $10 billion. The deals largely focus on China locking in natural resources like oil for years to come. China’s trade with Latin America has grown quickly this decade, making it the region’s second largest trading partner after the United States. But the size and scope of these loans point to a deeper engagement with Latin America at a time when the Obama administration is starting to address the erosion of Washington’s influence in the hemisphere. “This is how the balance of power shifts quietly during times of crisis,” said David Rothkopf, a former Commerce Department official in the Clinton administration. “The loans are an example of the checkbook power in the world moving to new places, with the Chinese becoming more active.” Mr. Obama will meet with leaders from the region this weekend. They will discuss the economic crisis, including a plan to replenish the Inter-American Development Bank, a Washington-based pillar of clout that has suffered losses from the financial crisis. Leaders at the summit meeting are also expected to push Mr. Obama to further loosen the United States policy toward Cuba. Meanwhile, China is rapidly increasing its lending in Latin America as it pursues not only long-term access to commodities like soybeans and iron ore, but also an alternative to investing in United States Treasury notes. One of China’s new deals in Latin America, the $10 billion arrangement with Argentina, would allow Argentina reliable access to Chinese currency to help pay for imports from China. It may also help lead the way to China’s currency to eventually be used as an alternate reserve currency. The deal follows similar ones China has struck with countries like South Korea, Indonesia and Belarus. As the financial crisis began to whipsaw international markets last year, the Federal Reserve made its own currency arrangements with central banks around the world, allocating $30 billion each to Brazil and Mexico. (Brazil has opted not to tap it for now.) But smaller economies in the region, including Argentina, which has been trying to dispel doubts about its ability to meet its international debt payments, were left out of those agreements. Details of the Chinese deal with Argentina are still being ironed out, but an official at Argentina’s central bank said it would allow Argentina to avoid using scarce dollars for all its international transactions. The takeover of billions of dollars in private pension funds, among other moves, led Argentines to pull the equivalent of nearly $23 billion, much of it in dollars, out of the country last year. Dante Sica, the lead economist at Abeceb, a consulting firm in Buenos Aires, said the Chinese overtures in the region were made possible by the “lack of attention that the United States showed to Latin America during the entire Bush administration.” China is also seizing opportunities in Latin America when traditional lenders over which the United States holds some sway, like the Inter-American Development Bank, are pushing up against their limits. Just one of China’s planned loans, the $10 billion for Brazil’s national oil company, is almost as much as the $11.2 billion in all approved financing by the Inter-American Bank in 2008. Brazil is expected to use the loan for offshore exploration, while agreeing to export as much as 100,000 barrels of oil a day to China, according to the oil company. The Inter-American bank, in which the United States has de facto veto power in some matters, is trying to triple its capital and increase lending to $18 billion this year. But the replenishment involves delicate negotiations among member nations, made all the more difficult after the bank lost almost $1 billion last year. China will also have a role in these talks, having become a member of the bank this year. China has also pushed into Latin American countries where the United States has negligible influence, like Venezuela. In February, China’s vice president, Xi Jinping, traveled to Caracas to meet with President Hugo Chávez. The two men announced that a Chinese-backed development fund based here would grow to $12 billion from $6 billion, giving Venezuela access to hard currency while agreeing to increase oil shipments to China to one million barrels a day from a level of about 380,000 barrels. Mr. Chávez’s government contends the Chinese aid differs from other multilateral loans because it comes without strings attached, like scrutiny of internal finances. But the Chinese fund has generated criticism among his opponents, who view it as an affront to Venezuela’s sovereignty. “The fund is a swindle to the nation,” said Luis Díaz, a lawmaker who claims that China locked in low prices for the oil Venezuela is using as repayment. Despite forging ties to Venezuela and extending loans to other nations that have chafed at Washington’s clout, Beijing has bolstered its presence without bombast, perhaps out of an awareness that its relationship with the United States is still of paramount importance. But this deference may not last. “This is China playing the long game,” said Gregory Chin, a political scientist at York University in Toronto. “If this ultimately translates into political influence, then that is how the game is played.”
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Romero & Barrionuevo ‘9 (Simon & Alexei, “Deals Help China Expand Sway in Latin America,” April 16, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan.html)-mikee
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s Washington tries to rebuild its strained relationships in Latin America, China is stepping in vigorously, offering countries across the region large amounts of money while they struggle with sharply slowing economies, a plunge in commodity prices and restricted access to credit. China’s trade with Latin America has grown quickly this decade, making it the region’s second largest trading partner after the United States. But the size and scope of these loans point to a deeper engagement with Latin America at a time when the Obama administration is starting to address the erosion of Washington’s influence in the hemisphere This is how the balance of power shifts quietly during times of crisis The loans are an example of the checkbook power in the world moving to new places, with the Chinese becoming more active.” Mr. Obama will meet with leaders from the region this weekend. They will discuss the economic crisis, including a plan to replenish the Inter-American Development Bank, a Washington-based pillar of clout Leaders are also expected to push Mr. Obama to further loosen the United States policy toward Cuba eanwhile, China is rapidly increasing its lending in Latin America as an alternative to investing in United States Treasury notes. Chinese overtures in the region were made possible by the “lack of attention that the United States showed to Latin America China is also seizing opportunities in Latin America when traditional lenders over which the United States holds some sway are pushing up against their limits. China has also pushed into Latin American countries where the United States has negligible influence, like Venezuela. “This is China playing the long game,” If this ultimately translates into political influence, then that is how the game is played.”
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China’s overall engagement & influence is growing because the US is absent. The plan’s economic focus competes with China.
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China’s economic expansion is rapidly filling spaces vacated and ignored by the United States. In the Western Hemisphere, the lack of a coherent U.S. foreign policy has left the door wide open for a variety of actors. China hasn’t hesitated. While the U.S. waited five years to pass free-trade agreements with Colombia and Panama, China has been working with Colombia on developing a coast-to-coast railroad as an alternative to the Panama Canal. While the U.S. spends four years dithering over the Keystone XL pipeline, a slam-dunk energy project with another hemispheric ally—Canada— China has made preparations to buy Canadian oil through new pipelines and invested heavily in national oil companies in Brazil and Venezuela. China has invested in Peru’s mining, oil, wood, fishing, and tourism sectors. Chinese groups have signed agreements in Brazil and Argentina to develop millions of acres of farmland to boost its food security. China’s trade with Latin America has grown by double digits annually since 2006, while U.S. direct investment has dropped. China is an economic and political threat and has made significant gains—but it is not too late. The Barack Obama administration’s lack of leadership with regard to Latin America doesn’t mean the U.S. must resign itself to a Chinese-centric hemisphere. Despite its economic might and influence, China doesn’t enjoy the cultural and logistical connections with Latin America that the U.S. takes for granted. The peoples of our two regions share values like freedom of speech, democracy and the hope for a safe and secure environment in which our children can prosper. Connections like these, with neighbors near our borders, should give the U.S. an unbeatable advantage. It’s time the Obama team puts forth a foreign policy that takes Latin America seriously or steps aside before it’s too late.
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Mack ’12 (Congressman Connie Mack, Ask The Experts: China's Global Rise “Does China represent an economic and political threat to the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere?” January 11, 2012, http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/3254)-mikee
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China’s economic expansion is rapidly filling spaces vacated and ignored by the United States the lack of a coherent U.S. foreign policy has left the door wide open China has been working with Colombia on railroad China has invested heavily in national oil companies in Venezuela. China has invested in Peru’s mining China’s trade with Latin America has grown by double digits annually since 2006, while U.S. direct investment has dropped. Obama lack of leadership with regard to Latin America doesn’t mean the U.S. must resign itself to a Chinese-centric hemisphere China doesn’t enjoy the cultural and logistical connections with Latin America that the U.S. takes for granted. It’s time the Obama team puts forth a foreign policy that takes Latin America seriously or steps aside before it’s too late
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US non-engagement is fueling China’s influence, but it’s reversible.
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Today, another communist state-the People's Republic of China (PRC)-is seeking trade, diplomatic, and military ties in Latin America and the Caribbean. The region is rich in natural resources and developing markets for manufactured goods and even arms. China does not currently pose a direct military threat in Latin America and has steadily embraced market concepts, but it represents serious competition that could dilute U.S. influence. Washington could ignore this intrusion or attempt to contain it. Ignoring it leaves a vacuum for China to fill, while trying to contain it runs against America's own free market ideals. Instead, the United States can best look after its hemispheric interests and moderate China's presence by: Consolidating trade relations with Latin America and removing protectionist U.S. trade barriers, Emphasizing comprehensive relationships as opposed to narrow-interest diplomacy such as counternarcotics, Minimizing unproductive restrictions on assistance to U.S. neighbors, and Pressing harder for democratic and economic reforms, prioritizing support for these purposes, and reenergizing public diplomacy. China's Interest in the Americas China is the world's oldest continuous civilization with more than 3,500 years of written history. Its power has risen and declined, most notably in the mid-1800s, when the ruling Qing Dynasty crumbled, inviting rebellion and foreign intervention. At the end of World War II, the Nationalist government, weakened by a decade of war against Japan and wracked by corruption and incompetence, fought a civil war against the Chinese Communist Party and was defeated. By 1950, communist leaders like Mao Zedong believed their authoritarianism would return China to glory, a belief that expired after 30 million people starved to death in state-induced famines in the early 1960s and another 10 million perished in fanatical ideological campaigns. In December 1978, after several "great leaps" backward, Communist Party leader Deng Xiaoping introduced economic reforms that have steadily transformed the PRC into a remarkable hybrid-a "socialist market economy"-in essence, a communist state that uses market-based pricing principles. Feeding the Dragon. Twenty-five years into this experiment, China has the world's sixth-largest economy, the third-largest defense budget according to some estimates, and the largest national population (1.3 billion people). According to the World Bank, its gross domestic product of $1.6 trillion is growing about 9 percent per year. China needs resources to feed its rapidly expanding economy, but it does not have sufficient oil, natural gas, aluminum, copper, or iron to satisfy its energy and manufacturing needs. Furthermore, it needs trade partners to buy its electronics, apparel, toys, and footwear. While communist China is embracing market concepts, it still has a non-market economy in which a disciplined totalitarian party retains full authority (through the central government) over non-state investment, import, export, and financial decisions. China's neighbors are competing for many of the same world markets, as are Europe and the United States. Latin America is a particularly promising prospect. It is relatively unindustrialized and has an abundance of raw materials. Moreover, authoritarian leaders and/or corrupt oligarchies control a number of governments. Signing purchase agreements with them is much easier than dealing with the panoply of private corporations found in more democratic countries. Challenging the United States. China's main rival for global preeminence is the United States. China sees the United States as preventing Taiwan's reunification with the mainland and thwarting Beijing's rise as a power. Previously, China was isolated, but now plays key roles in Asian geopolitics and aspires to do so elsewhere. Besides status as a nuclear nation, it is a member of the U.N. Security Council, the World Trade Organization, the Group of 77 developing nations, and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group. It also holds observer status in the Organization of American States. While China has become the second-largest U.S. trade partner after Canada, it challenges U.S. influence wherever it can. In fact, it will soon have more attack submarines than the United States, with the addition of four Russian Kilo-class subs and new diesel-electric vessels equipped with technology that will allow them to run quieter than nuclear submarines.[1] According to former U.S. Ambassador to Beijing James Lilly, "[T]he facts are that [the Chinese] run massive intelligence operations against us, they make open statements against us, their high-level documents show that they are not friendly to us." Chinese military white papers promote power projection and describe U.S. policies as "hegemonism and power politics."[2] In the Western Hemisphere, the Chinese are taking advantage of failures of half-hearted market reforms and Washington's unwillingness to pursue neighborhood relations with much enthusiasm. National Defense University professor Cynthia A. Watson notes, "[T]he 1990s turned into a period of severe disappointment as free markets led to rampant corruption and unfulfilled expectations in Latin America while Washington became the world's superpower rather than a partner for the region."[3]
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Johnson ‘5 (Stephen, Senior Policy Analyst for Latin America in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, “Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America,” October 24, 2005, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america)
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China is seeking trade, diplomatic, and military ties in Latin America . China does not currently pose a direct military threat in Latin America and has steadily embraced market concepts, but it represents serious competition that could dilute U.S. influence. Washington could ignore this Ignoring it leaves a vacuum for China to fill, the United States can moderate China's presence by Consolidating trade relations with Latin America Emphasizing comprehensive relationships Minimizing unproductive restrictions Pressing harder for economic reforms Challenging the United States. China's main rival for global preeminence is the United States. China sees the United States as preventing Taiwan's reunification with the mainland and thwarting Beijing's rise as a power While China has become the second-largest U.S. trade partner after Canada, it challenges U.S. influence wherever it can In the Western Hemisphere, the Chinese are taking advantage of failures of half-hearted market reforms and Washington's unwillingness to pursue neighborhood relations with much enthusiasm.
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The plan crowds out Chinese influence – market influence is key
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China and Cuba: Reordering the Local China is Cuba’s second largest trading partner after Venezuela, with 2.7 billion dollars in bilateral trade reported for 2007 (Cubaencuentro 2008). This trade is more valuable to Cuba than to China, though this could change if Chinese oil, nickel, and electronics manufacturing operations in Cuba expand. Furthermore, for the eight resource-rich countries that comprise Latin America’s “New Left”, Cuba is a unique ideological symbol of resistance to U.S. hegemony. For China, whose pursuit of Latin American natural resources is at least as voracious as that of the United States, cooperation with Cuba, strongly supported by Raúl Castro, decreases the danger of being perceived in the region as an external—potentially imperialistic—threat to economic sovereignty. In the wake of the Soviet collapse, China has become an important commercial and political partner for Cuba, though as Mao Xianglin of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences notes, Chinese officials are not interested in replicating the Soviet experience: I think we have to recognize that although bartering with Venezuela and other countries—for example doctors for oil—is of great value to Cuba, it is not enough. There will never be a return to the Soviet model, and nor would this be a good idea. The Soviets essentially gave resources to Cuba for political reasons, but this is not sustainable and it creates a dependency. Using Chinese expertise Cuba could come to produce electronic goods for sale to Latin America, but at the same time could also open its domestic market very gradually. I think both will happen (interview, December 14, 2007). When Hu Jintao visited Cuba in November 2008, he donated $8 million to assist Cuba’s hurricane relief efforts, offered a $70 million credit for modernizing Cuba’s hospitals, and proposed 37 new projects for Chinese investment on the island. He also extended the deadline for the repayment of a $7 million credit granted in 1998 and deferred until 2018 the payment of Cuba’s trade imbalance with China accumulated prior to 1995. In the area of education, Hu affirmed that between 2006 and 2011, Cuba will have trained 5,000 Chinese students in medicine, tourism, and Spanish. Among Chinese economic activities in Cuba are sales to state-run transport sector, nickel extraction, oil exploration, and industrial manufacturing. Local sources report that Chinese electronics manufacturers have built a three-story production facility in Havana to compile small appliances for sale to the Cuban and Latin American markets, an objective supported by Chinese investment in Cuba’s transport and telecommunications infrastructure. This initiative is also supported by Raúl Castro’s April 2008 lifting of restrictions on the domestic sale of televisions, VCRs, mobile phones, computers, and electronic appliances. This has legalized the sale of products that were already widely in circulation through informal channels, effectively formalizing, expanding, and regulating a commercial sector with enormous growth potential between Cuba and China, where most of these products originate.
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Hearn ‘9 (Adrian, Ph.D., is a Research Fellow at the University of Sydney and at the University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim. “China’s Relations with Mexico and Cuba: A Study of Contrasts,” Pacific Rim Report No. 52, January 2009, www.pacificrim.usfca.edu)-mikee
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China is Cuba’s second largest trading partner after Venezuela, Cuba is a unique ideological symbol of resistance to U.S. hegemony. For China, whose pursuit of Latin American natural resources is at least as voracious as that of the United States, cooperation with Cuba decreases the danger of being perceived in the region as an external—potentially imperialistic—threat to economic sovereignty. In the wake of the Soviet collapse, China has become an important commercial and political partner for Cuba Using Chinese expertise Cuba could come to produce electronic goods for sale to Latin America, but at the same time could also open its domestic market very gradually Among Chinese economic activities in Cuba are sales to state-run transport sector, nickel extraction, oil exploration, and industrial manufacturing This has legalized the sale of products that were already widely in circulation through informal channels, effectively formalizing, expanding, and regulating a commercial sector with enormous growth potential between Cuba and China, where most of these products originate.
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Cuba is key to China’s development strategy – they’re stepping up their engagement now.
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The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has also given China the opportunity to step in as a major player, both economically and politically, in regions all around the world, but particularly in Latin America. The Chinese government has invested a tremendous amount of soft power in Latin America, where it is now the continent's third largest trading partner, with an annual trade growth of 30% since 2001. n115 American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many countries to adopt a "Pacific view," whereby China steps in to fill the gap left by America's absence. n116 After signing a free trade agreement with Chile, China quickly displaced the United States as that country's largest export market. China also [*224] recently displaced the U.S. as Brazil's biggest trading partner. n117 In 2000, trade between China and Latin America hovered around $ 13 billion, but in 2007, that number had increased to $ 102 billion, and by 2008 total trade was valued at $ 140 billion. n118 Even despite the current financial crisis, trade between China and Latin America is likely to grow during the next five years. China's interest in Latin America is also based on its increasingly assertive global political agenda. In 2007, Costa Rica dropped its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, a move heavily courted by Chinese officials. In 2008, President Hu rewarded Costa Rica's new policy by visiting San Jose and signing a free trade agreement in 2010. n119 China also timed the release of a new policy paper on Sino-Latin American relations to coincide with President Hu's most recent trip to the region. It charts China's growing relationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation in scientific and technological research, cross-cultural educational exchanges, as well as political and economic exchanges. n120 As China's role in Latin America increases, American clout correspondingly decreases in terms of relative power. To be sure, the U.S. will remain the major powerbroker in the Americas for decades to come, but will increasingly have to make room for a new player. Given this diminishing economic position, Washington will have to rely more heavily on diplomatic initiatives that shore up credibility rather than simply economic incentives and disincentives, such as bilateral trade agreements. (7B) China's Strategic Interest in Cuba China's presence in Cuba is rather significant: after Venezuela, China is Cuba's second-largest trading partner with $ 2.3 billion worth of goods exchanged. n121 In fact, China purchases over 400,000 tons of Cuban sugar, as well as half its annual output of nickel, which is Cuba's top export. n122 In 2008, on a visit to Cuba, Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to not only defer for ten years some of Cuba's debt payments, but also to invest $ 80 million in the island's health industry. n123 Moreover, as long as Taiwan is a [*225] thorny issue for U.S.-Sino relations, China will have a stake in Cuba. China is neurotic about the functional American presence in Taiwan and has made its intentions for the island known to everyone; the only thing standing between Beijing's re-appropriation of Taipei is Washington. An increased Chinese presence in Cuba might be a strategic move by Beijing to later leverage their presence on the island for a change in America's Taiwan policy.
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Perez ’10 (JD Yale Law School 2010 David “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” Harvard Latino Law Review lexis)
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The absence of a strong American presence over the last eight years has also given China the opportunity to step in as a major player, particularly in Latin America. The Chinese government has invested a tremendous amount of soft power in Latin America American disinterest in Latin America has convinced many countries to adopt a "Pacific view," whereby China steps in to fill the gap left by America's absence China's interest in Latin America is based on its increasingly assertive global political agenda. a new policy paper on Sino-Latin American relations charts China's growing relationship with Latin America and promises increased cooperation in scientific and technological research, cross-cultural educational exchanges, as well as political and economic exchanges. As China's role in Latin America increases, American clout correspondingly decreases in terms of relative power. Given this diminishing economic position, Washington will have to rely more heavily on diplomatic initiatives that shore up credibility rather than simply economic incentives and disincentives, such as bilateral trade agreements China's presence in Cuba is rather significant: China is Cuba's second-largest trading partner with $ 2.3 billion worth of goods exchanged Moreover, as long as Taiwan is a thorny issue for U.S.-Sino relations, China will have a stake in Cuba An increased Chinese presence in Cuba might be a strategic move by Beijing to later leverage their presence on the island for a change in America's Taiwan policy.
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Increased engagement with Cuba crowds out China, which they perceive as critical to foreign policy goals.
| 3,368 | 105 | 1,523 | 545 | 16 | 232 | 0.029358 | 0.425688 |
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The death of Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela, was a blow to his country, but it may have been a bigger one to the people of Cuba. Chavez was the patron saint of Cuba, providing, among other things, subsidized oil to a country lacking the means to pay full freight. I was in Cuba when Chavez died and can attest that the country was in a state of shock. People were wondering if Chavez’s successor would be as generous as Chavez. Instead of letting the Cubans fret, the United States should seize this opportunity to befriend them by ending our embargo. China is another influential country in Cuba and I can see that influence growing. Given that we once were ready to go to war over Soviet missiles in Cuba, why should now stand by and let China bunk 90 miles from our country? Embrace Cuba now.
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Berner ’13 (Thomas, freelance writer and retired journalism professor. “End the Embargo on Cuba,” The Spectator, 3.22.2013, http://rtberner.blogspot.com/2013/03/end-embargo-on-cuba.html)-mikee
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The death of Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela, was a blow to his country, but it may have been a bigger one to the people of Cuba Instead of letting the Cubans fret, the United States should seize this opportunity to befriend them by ending our embargo. China is another influential country in Cuba and I can see that influence growing. why should now stand by and let China bunk 90 miles from our country
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Lifting the embargo stops Chinese influence.
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"In a separate local television interview, Mr. Ryan also explained how he had come to change his mind and since 2007 has supported the embargo.", Ryan Criticizes Obama’s Cuba Policy and Explains His Shift on the Issue, New York Times, September 22, 2012 Sometimes we conduct our foreign policy like it is still 1980. I understand the current Obama administration also supports the continued enforcement of the embargo. Both Mr. Obama and Mr. Ryan are wrong. Who have we hurt with such a policy? Certainly not the Castro's. We hurt the ordinary citizen of Cuba who are not enemies. Further, at the same time we are increasing the presence of the United States in the Pacific rim much to the dismay of China. If I was in a leadership position in China I would quietly tell the President that I am not happy with the United States flexing its muscles so close to China's borders and, oh by the way, we have decided to increase trade with Cuba. If we don't start supporting Cuba more, China will. The Cuban people are our friends as are the people of Haiti.
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FFM ’12 (Free Free Markets, “Cuban Embargo and China,” September 22, 2012, http://www.freeourfreemarkets.org/2012/09/cuban-embargo-and-china.html)-mikee
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Sometimes we conduct our foreign policy like it is still 1980 Obama supports the embargo Obama are wrong at the same time we are increasing the presence of the United States in the Pacific rim much to the dismay of China. If I was in a leadership position in China I would quietly tell the President that I am not happy with the United States flexing its muscles so close to China's borders and, oh by the way, we have decided to increase trade with Cuba. If we don't start supporting Cuba more, China will
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Lifting the embargo stops Chinese trade advantage.
| 1,053 | 51 | 506 | 189 | 7 | 95 | 0.037037 | 0.502646 |
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THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT CONSIDERS DOWNSTREAM INDUSTRIES IN CHINA’S SPECIALTY STEEL SECTOR TO BE “PILLAR” INDUSTRIES THAT ARE “THE LIFE-BLOOD OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY” While China has taken deliberate steps since the late 1970s to reform China’s economy, such as allowing certain foreign investment into the country and allowing SOEs a small degree of autonomy, a fundamental element in China’s drive to become a leading international economic power has been the Chinese government’s extensive industrial policies that direct and manage the country’s economic and industrial development by defining which industries, enterprises, and products should be targeted for preferential support and controlled by the government.9 The overarching objective of China’s industrial policies has been to foster the growth of certain industrial sectors that the Chinese government considers are essential to the country’s overall economic prosperity and social stability, while maintaining control of those sectors by encouraging the expansion of SOEs in the industries and protecting them from foreign competition. The Chinese government has identified 14 “key” industries and seven “pillar” industries that are the “life-blood industries of the national economy.”10 These favored industries are supported by the Chinese government through its industrial policies.11 The industries designated by China as “pillar” industries, for instance, include the automotive, electronics, oil and gas, aviation and aerospace, construction, pharmaceutical, and machinery industries. Id. Primary downstream consumers of specialty steel are among the seven “pillar” industries supported by the Chinese government through its industrial policies.12 Indeed, given specialty steel’s resistance to corrosion, fire, and heat, hygienic qualities, aesthetic appearance, strengthtoweight advantage, ease of fabrication, and impact resistance, it is an essential material consumed by a broad range of industries in numerous applications:13
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SSINA, ‘8 (A voluntary trade association representing virtually all the producers of specialty steel in North America, Specialty Steel industry of North America, October 2008, “China’s Specialty Steel Subsidies: Massive, Pervasive, and Illegal, SSINA, http://www.ssina.com/news/releases/pdf_releases/20081014_report.pdf)
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THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT CONSIDERS DOWNSTREAM INDUSTRIES IN CHINA’S SPECIALTY STEEL SECTOR TO BE “PILLAR” INDUSTRIES THAT ARE “THE LIFE-BLOOD OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY” a fundamental element in China’s drive to become a leading international economic power has been the Chinese government’s extensive industrial policies that direct and manage the country’s economic and industrial development by defining which industries, enterprises, and products should be targeted for preferential support and controlled by the government.9 The overarching objective of China’s industrial policies has been to foster the growth of industrial sectors that essential to the country’s overall economic prosperity and social stability The Chinese government has identified 14 “key” industries and seven “pillar” industries that are the “life-blood industries of the national economy.” . Primary downstream consumers of specialty steel are among the seven “pillar” industries specialty steel is an essential material consumed by a broad range of industries in numerous applications:13
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b. The steel industry is the life-blood of their economy.
| 2,000 | 58 | 1,064 | 275 | 10 | 149 | 0.036364 | 0.541818 |
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Former Mexican President Vicente Fox said the United States has to bolster ties with Mexico - including recognizing the benefits of migrant labor - or get used to the idea of China setting the international agenda on its own terms."The threat is this so-called power shift from the West to the East," he told a press conference Thursday at an economic development event organized by the city of Peoria. "Those nations on the East are getting ready and prepared to lead," Fox explained, saying there are forecasts showing the Chinese economy will be larger than that of the United States within a dozen years. "And that means a very important question to all of us: Under what principles are those leading nations (going to) be exercising their leadership?" Fox said. His point: The U.S. would be better off dealing with Mexico and other Latin American countries than perhaps those with different worldviews. "We have our values in the West that we share," Fox said. "So we all on this continent, especially North America, must get ready to meet that challenge." That means bolstering the economies of the United States and Mexico, he said.If the West wants to keep its edge, Fox said, there needs to be a recognition that Mexicans in the United States, legally or not, contribute to the economy of both countries. And that, he said, will require resolving the issue of who can come to this country and under what circumstances. "It has to be based on humanism, on compassion, on love, on friendship, on neighborhood and on partnership that we have together," Fox said. "Otherwise, we will keep losing the jobs to the East."
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Fischer ‘12 (Howard, Analyst for Capitol Media, “Fox says US-Mexico ties deter China's influence” 9/14/12 http://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.html)
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the United States has to bolster ties with Mexico or get used to the idea of China setting the international agenda on its own terms."The threat is this power shift from the West to the East nations on the East are getting ready and prepared to lead there are forecasts showing the Chinese economy will be larger than that of the United States within a dozen years Under what principles are those leading nations (going to) be exercising their leadership The U.S. would be better off dealing with Mexico and other Latin American countries than those with different worldviews That means bolstering the economies of the United States and Mexico If the West wants to keep its edge, there needs to be a recognition that Mexicans in the United States, , contribute to the economy of both countries. that will require resolving the issue of who can come to this country we will keep losing the jobs to the East.
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Increase engagement and improved relations with Mexico blocks China.
| 1,623 | 69 | 906 | 278 | 9 | 160 | 0.032374 | 0.57554 |
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Expanded cooperative ventures with Chinese enterprises, supported or not by an FTA, could enable Mexico to develop mutually beneficial production chains capable of penetrating global markets. Increased intra-industry trade could open access routes to Asian markets and foster the integration of new technologies, thereby reducing face-to-face competition in third markets like the United States (ECLAC 2006). As Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Ernesto Derbez recently put it, The question is not whether Mexico is losing the U.S. market, but rather how we can establish a strategic relationship with China to penetrate that market together.[...] Many Mexican business executives already understand that they must invest in China with Chinese partners and invest in Mexico with those same partners. Then they can go after the U.S. market together...We are developing three-way businesses between Mexico, China and the United States, and the participants have begun to understand what globalization of trade means and how to establish a structure that benefits everyone (IADB 2004). Such a strategy would require careful legal planning in order to avoid infringement of U.S. antitrust laws, but in principle it is a reasonable solution that resembles the existing practice of shipping components into the NAFTA zone and the special economic areas of Panama (such as the Howard Farfan facility) for assembly and tax-free entry into the United States. Considering the rapid growth of the domestic Chinese market, Mexican manufacturers should keep abreast of emerging trends and opportunities there, with a view to commercial expansion into niche areas. Costa Rica has shown what can be achieved, exporting locally manufactured Intel computer chips around the world, including to China (Oppenheimer 2008). As discussed below, some important initial steps toward greater Mexican knowledge of the Chinese market have been advanced through educational exchange and research scholarships.
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Hearn ‘9 (Adrian, Ph.D., is a Research Fellow at the University of Sydney and at the University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim. “China’s Relations with Mexico and Cuba: A Study of Contrasts,” Pacific Rim Report No. 52, January 2009, www.pacificrim.usfca.edu)-mikee
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Expanded cooperative ventures with Chinese enterprises could enable Mexico to develop mutually beneficial production chains capable of penetrating global markets. Increased intra-industry trade could open access routes to Asian markets and foster the integration of new technologies, thereby reducing face-to-face competition The question is not whether Mexico is losing the U.S. market, but rather how we can establish a strategic relationship with China to penetrate that market together they must invest in China with Chinese partners and invest in Mexico with those same partners. Then they can go after the U.S. market together...We are developing three-way businesses between Mexico, China and the United States, Such a strategy would require careful legal planning Considering the rapid growth of the domestic Chinese market, Mexican manufacturers should keep abreast of emerging trends and opportunities there
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China & Mexico working collaboratively to access US markets – US involvement prevents that partnership.
| 1,977 | 104 | 917 | 293 | 15 | 132 | 0.051195 | 0.450512 |
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In terms of economic openness and political ideology Mexico and Cuba are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Nevertheless, for China both hold high strategic value. Examining China’s relations with Mexico and Cuba opens an analytic window into the way that bilateral commercial, cultural, and diplomatic cooperation programs have adapted to distinct local conditions. Based on interviews and observations gathered during three years in Cuba, ten months in China, and eight months in Mexico, this Pacific Rim Report outlines some of the positive and negative local responses that intensifying engagement with China has produced. It also suggests that China has effectively tailored bilateral programs to local environments to advance common economic, political, and cultural objectives. China’s economic impact across Latin America has been uneven. Its demand for energy resources has driven up commodity prices, benefiting exporters such as Argentina and Brazil (soy), Chile (copper), Peru (iron, fishmeal), and Venezuela (crude oil) (Jiang 2005, Zweig and Jianhai 2005). Nevertheless, as the case studies of José Luis León Manríquez (2006) show, the exports of Mexico and the countries of Central America consist primarily of manufactured products and textiles, resulting in seemingly insurmountable competition from a tidal wave of legal and illicit Chinese imports. Romer Cornejo (2005) suggests that this regional variation results in part from the structural adjustments of the public and private sectors pursued by Latin American countries to facilitate cooperation with China. To examine this issue in depth, in 2006 the Red de Estudios de América Latina y el Caribe sobre Asia del Pacífico (Latin American and Caribbean Study Network on Asia and the Pacific, or REDEALAP) of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) brought together scholars from IADB member countries to debate the effectiveness and future trajectory of structural adjustments in order to deepen cooperation with China in areas ranging from fiscal integration into regional trade blocks to natural disaster relief (REDEALAP 2006). A recent book from the OECD (Santiso 2007) argues that although China’s emergence represents a valuable opportunity for Latin America to develop alternative economic partnerships that reduce dependence on the United States and Europe, resource exports to China could gradually push the region into a ‘raw materials corner’. Similarly, a book from the Inter-American Development Bank entitled, The Emergence of China: Opportunities and Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean, argues that to avoid future dependence on primary resource exports, Latin American governments should adopt long-term strategies that position their countries as service providers for the expanding Chinese middle class, particularly in the tourism and education sectors (Devlin et al. 2006). The authors signal that to climb the industrial value chain in this way will require a greater coordinating role for Latin American governments, since development strategies guided by the market alone, adopted in part as a backlash to previous import substitution strategies, will naturally favor short-term growth through commodity export. One summary of China’s relations with six Latin American countries (Jorge I. Domínguez et al., 2006) juxtaposes political cooperation with trade patterns. The study argues that although economic considerations are paramount, Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil have to varying degrees used China to balance U.S. influence in the region. Varying degrees of alarm about this prospect are expressed in the publications of research institutions and think tanks associated with the U.S. military and government (CLATF 2006:2, Eisenman 2006, Lam 2004, Mrozinski 2002). Indeed, the ‘triangular’ relationship between China, Latin America, and the United States is emerging as a prominent topic of debate (e.g. Arnson et al. 2007). China’s multiple objectives in Latin America are evident in the diversity of its activities in Cuba and Mexico. Although Cuba harbors some economic value for China through oil exploration, nickel extraction, biomedical collaboration, and electronics sales and manufacturing, its appeal is mainly political. Diplomatic links with Cuba promote China’s image as a ‘non-aligned’ protagonist of ‘South-South’ cooperation, providing ideological common ground with the eight mineral-rich countries that make up Latin America’s ‘New Left’. Mexico, by contrast, offers China more conventional economic incentives such as a market for Chinese consumer products, a manufacturing base with geographic and legal access to North American markets, and the prospect of potentially massive investment in the oil sector. The following sections discuss the challenges and opportunities that China has brought to Mexico and Cuba, and the steps taken by both governments to respond effectively.
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Hearn ‘9 (Adrian, Ph.D., is a Research Fellow at the University of Sydney and at the University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim. “China’s Relations with Mexico and Cuba: A Study of Contrasts,” Pacific Rim Report No. 52, January 2009, www.pacificrim.usfca.edu)-mikee
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In terms of economic openness and political ideology Mexico and Cuba are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Nevertheless, for China both hold high strategic value. China has effectively tailored bilateral programs to local environments to advance common economic, political, and cultural objectives. China’s emergence represents a valuable opportunity for Latin America to develop alternative economic partnerships that reduce dependence on the United States although economic considerations are paramount, Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil have to varying degrees used China to balance U.S. influence in the region Indeed, the ‘triangular’ relationship between China, Latin America, and the United States is emerging as a prominent topic of debate China’s multiple objectives in Latin America are evident in the diversity of its activities in Cuba and Mexico Cuba appeal is mainly political. Diplomatic links with Cuba promote China’s image as a ‘non-aligned’ protagonist of ‘South-South’ cooperation Mexico offers China more conventional economic incentives such as a market for Chinese consumer products, The following sections discuss the challenges and opportunities that China has brought to Mexico and Cuba, and the steps taken by both governments to respond effectively.
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Cuba and/or Mexico are economically and politically key to China.
| 4,922 | 65 | 1,282 | 720 | 10 | 185 | 0.013889 | 0.256944 |
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It can be argued that Venezuela is currently China’s principal strategic partner in Latin America, both in terms of the volume of investment, as well as in the nature of the relationship between the two countries.29 China currently has over $1.5 billion invested in Venezuela―prior to the recently announced $100 million in investment commitments, the largest investment position of any country in the region.30 Bilateral trade between China and Venezuela increased from $150 million in 2003 to $1.2 billion in 2004,31 and is anticipated to reach $3 billion in 2005, based on agreements signed during the state visit of Venezuela’s populist president Hugo Chávez Frias to China during the 2004 Christmas holiday,32 as well as a series of 19 cooperation accords signed between Venezuela and China in January 2005.33 These figures reflect growth in both imports and exports. Venezuelan imports from China grew by 120 percent over 2004 to reach $560 million, while similarly growing oil exports have allowed Venezuela to maintain a net trade surplus.34 The Chinese relationship with Venezuela reflects not only Chinese interest in Venezuelan resources, but also the receptivity of President Chávez. His interest in developing alternative markets for Venezuelan petroleum, and developing a hedge against U.S. influence in the region, make him a strong potential Chinese ally.35 In his high- profile state visit to China, Chávez signed a number of accords in which he committed Venezuela to put its petroleum production “at the disposition of the great Chinese fatherland.”36 On the other hand, he is also a potential threat to Chinese interests, insofar as his Bolivarian revolution and support for indigenous populism and anti- globalist causes could foment instability in China’s trading partners in Latin America, and undermine Chinese access to the resources of the region. China’s principal interest in Venezuela, based on trade and investment patterns, is petroleum products. Exports of Venezuelan petroleum products to China registered a 75 percent increase in 2003,37 and a 25 percent increase in 2004, reaching a level of $640 million.38 Although the volume of petroleum shipments from Venezuela to China is limited and there are restrictions on the size of tankers and cargo ships which can be sent through the Panama Canal, infrastructure projects are under consideration which could sidestep these constraints by using pipelines to carry the oil overland to Pacific ports―either across Colombia or Panama. As part of a series of accords signed during the state visit of Chávez to China in December 2004, and leveraging the close working relationship with the Chinese developed over recent years,39 Venezuela will give China access to 15 mature oil fields, with proven reserves of up to a billion barrels of oil, for Chinese firms to develop and exploit.40 As part of the accord, China will invest $350 million toward bringing these fields on line,41 and in exchange will be allowed to build refineries on Venezuelan territory to process the oil.42 The agreement will help the Venezuelan government to overcome the shortfalls in technical management that it created when it fired half of all workers in its state oil firm, Petroleos de Venezuela (PdVSA), following the December 2002-March 2003 national strike. By allowing the Chinese to directly develop these fields, Venezuela will be able to almost double its production despite a lack of internal technical capacity to do so, selling significant quantities of oil to China while still serving its traditional markets. As a compliment to its assistance to Venezuela in extracting its oil, China is also investing $60 million in a number of projects to help Venezuela extract its natural gas. 43 During a scheduled state visit at the end of January 2005, Chinese Vice-President Zeng Quinghong and senior directors of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will analyze the viability of even greater Chinese investment in the development of Venezuelan natural gas reserves.44 A third significant element of Chinese engagement with Venezuela in the petroleum sector involves the Chinese purchase of Venezuelan ormulsión, and conversion of Chinese facilities to use it for the generation of electricity. Ormulsión is a low-grade, high-pollution content fuel oil traditionally given little or no value because of the lack of a global market for its use. In December 2001, CNPC and PdVSA established the joint venture Orifuels Sinoven, S.A (Sinovensa) and invested $330 million to develop a capability to produce 6.5 million metric tons of ormulsión per year by the end of 2004. In conjunction with this effort, in November 2003 CNPC began constructing a special new type of power plant capable of burning ormulsión in the Guangdong province of China.45 Through a deal finalized in 2004, China’s commercial agent, Petrochina, a subsidiary of CNPC, is currently purchasing 1.5 millions of tons of orimulsión annually from Venezuela.46 By building the new power plant, China is able to make use of the Venezuelan ormulsión, which it is able to purchase at relatively low cost because of the lack of a global market. Moreover, Venezuela is China’s natural partner for the ormulsión deal, in that the Latin American country currently possesses the world’s largest proven ormulsión reserves―almost double those of Saudi Arabia, the next largest source. China is also helping Venezuela to extract its coal. At the end of 2004, China announced that it will invest in the development of mines in the Orinoco River Basin area in the south of the country.47 China Minmetal and the Venezuelan firm, Corpozulia, are slated to sign an agreement during the scheduled state visit of Chinese Vice President Zeng Quinghong at the end of January 2005 that would use Chinese investment to increase Venezuelan carbon production.48 Beyond the domain of extractive industries, the Chinese- Venezuelan partnership has extended to the agricultural sector, where Venezuelan interests in improving agricultural productivity coincide with Chinese interests in developing reliable, friendly suppliers of foodstuffs. As part of the accords reached between the two nations during the Christmas 2004 visit of Chávez to China, the Asian giant has agreed to provide Venezuela with agricultural machinery and credits for the nation to increase its food production.49 In keeping with the vertically integrated strategy that China has pursued in other Latin American countries to secure access to sources of supply for strategic materials, China announced in December 2005 that it will invest in the construction of a national railway line, helping Venezuela to transport raw materials and foodstuffs to market.50 Finally, China is also helping Venezuela to develop its telecommunications industry, including assistance to Venezuela in access to space. As part of the series of accords reached during the Christmas 2004 visit of Hugo Chávez to China, the two nations announced that China will launch a telecommunications satellite for Venezuela, helping the nation become less dependent on U.S. telecommunications networks.51 The initiative built on broader discussions of how China could help Venezuela to develop and modernize its telecommunications infrastructure more broadly, including a December 2004 visit to Venezuela by Vice minister of the Chinese information ministry Lou Kinjian to discuss possible collaboration on telecommunication projects with the Venezuelan telecommunications firm, CVG Telecom.52
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Ellis ‘5 (R. Evan, a fellow at the Strategic Studies Institute, he holds a Ph.D. in political science with a comparative politics specialization in ethnic violence, “China’s role in Latin America” US Senate Report, www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub606.pdf)-mikee
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Venezuela is China’s principal strategic partner in Latin America both in terms of the volume of investment, as well as in the nature of the relationship The Chinese relationship with Venezuela reflects Chinese interest in Venezuelan resources, China’s principal interest in Venezuela, based on trade and investment patterns, is petroleum products As a compliment to its assistance to Venezuela in extracting its oil, China is also investing $60 million in a number of projects to help Venezuela extract its natural gas. Venezuela is China’s natural partner Beyond the domain of extractive industries, the Chinese- Venezuelan partnership has extended to the agricultural sector, where Venezuelan interests in improving agricultural productivity coincide with Chinese interests in developing reliable, friendly suppliers of foodstuffs In keeping with the vertically integrated strategy that China has pursued in other Latin American countries to secure access to sources of supply for strategic materials, China announced that it will invest in the construction of a national railway line, helping Venezuela to transport raw materials and foodstuffs to market China is also helping Venezuela to develop its telecommunications industry, including assistance to Venezuela in access to space.
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Venezuela is key – China protects its power with energy, agriculture, and telecommunications engagement.
| 7,551 | 105 | 1,288 | 1,166 | 14 | 188 | 0.012007 | 0.161235 |
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ENERGY AND DIPLOMACY China’s limited supplies of oil and natural gas have played an important role in broadening that country’s interests beyond the East Asian region.[16] China’s state-run oil companies, supported by the government, have pursued a strategy of buying energy properties around the world in an attempt to secure oil and gas supplies. Chinese foreign policy has focused on developing bilateral ties with important selected countries, but it is increasingly willing to work through multilateral institutions with other oil consuming nations. As a major energy consumer and importer, China shares America’s goals of ensuring reliable energy supplies at moderate supplies. Of course, Beijing is competing with the United States and other energy importers for these finite resources. Moreover, China’s pursuit of energy security frequently clashes with U.S. national security interests, as Beijing courts oil-rich countries regarded as pariahs by Washington, such as Sudan, Venezuela, Burma, and Iran.
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Ziegler ‘6 (Charles E. Ziegler is Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Louisville, and Director of the Institute for Democracy and Development. “THE ENERGY FACTOR IN CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY,” Journal of Chinese Political Science, 2006. http://louisville.edu/democracydevelopment/research/current-publications/the-energy-factor-in-china2019s-foreign-policy.html)-mikee
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China’s limited supplies of oil have played an important role in broadening that country’s interests beyond the East Asian region Chinese foreign policy has focused on developing bilateral ties with important selected countries Beijing is competing with the United States and other energy importers for these finite resources. Moreover, China’s pursuit of energy security frequently clashes with U.S. as Beijing courts oil-rich countries regarded as pariahs by Washington, such Venezuela
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US oil engagement in Venezuela crowds out China.
| 1,011 | 49 | 487 | 148 | 8 | 70 | 0.054054 | 0.472973 |
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With the Middle East in turmoil, and Russian pipelines uncertain, Chinese companies have increasingly sought out business opportunities with African and Latin American oil producing states. The share of China’s crude oil imports from Africa increased from 8.5 percent to 28 percent from 1996 to 1999.[39] East Asian imports of crude from West Africa for the first three months of 2004 were 1.3 to 1.4 million bpd, considerably higher than the one million bpd average in 2003. Most of this was driven by China’s surging demand for sweet crude.[40] China’s interest in Africa during the Cold War was to present an alternative to the superpower rivalry of the United States and the Soviet Union. Competition then was for ideological influence with the developing world, through such projects as the Tanzania-Zambia railway and aid to Mozambique, in which China presented itself as a defender of the poorest Third World states. This ideologically driven approach declined after Deng’s pragmatic market reforms were begun, and policy toward the African continent now is driven more by a blend of political and economic interests. The political side of China’s recent attention to Africa is a response to Taiwan’s efforts to spread largesse in exchange for diplomatic recognition from smaller nations on the continent.[41] China’s search for new energy supplies also accounts for a significant part of Beijing’s Africa policy. In 2002 China provided $1.8 billion in development assistance to African countries, while China’s trade with the continent reached $12.4 billion.[42] China can help Africa’s energy exporting states by providing direct investment and technology. In turn, China receives much-needed oil and other raw materials, in addition to a more visible presence on the continent. In February 2004 President Hu Jintao visited Algeria, Egypt and Gabon, all major oil producers. In Algeria, Hu and Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika signed a framework energy agreement and accords on technological cooperation and educational exchanges, and China extended a preferential loan worth $48 million. Major Chinese projects in Algeria include a CNPC refining agreement worth $350 million, a $525 million contract with Sinopec to develop the Zarzaitine oil field in the Sahara, and a contract for China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company to build an oil refinery near Adrar. Chinese firms are involved in the construction of an air terminal at Hourari Boumedienne airport, a teaching hospital in Oran, and some 55,000 apartments. Algeria is eager to increase its output from the current one million bpd to 1.5 million bpd, and China is a willing customer.[43] Gabon has far less oil than Algeria (current production, at 270,000 bpd, is down more than a third from the peak year 1997), but it is still important given China’s status as a latecomer to the ranks of oil importing nations. During Hu’s 2004 visit Total Gabon and China’s Unipec (a subsidiary of Sinopec) signed the first contact for the delivery of Gabon crude, and Sinopec has exploration plans for the West African nation.[44] Sudan is a key energy producing state for China in Africa. Government-sponsored massacres in the western region of Darfur have resulted in U.S. economic sanctions, and most major oil companies have reduced their presence in this troubled country. China resists criticism that its energy investments in Sudan have funded the brutal Janjaweed militias, arguing that China and Sudan have normal business relations. Sudan has received the bulk of Chinese investment in Africa, but Beijing argues this is simply normal business relations. China’s National Petroleum Corporation has developed a plan to invest $1 billion in upgrading Sudan’s refineries and pipelines. Approximately $700 million of this would go toward constructing a 750 kilometer pipeline from the Kordofan field to the coast, while the remainder would be used to increase capacity at the Khartoum refinery.[45] Sudan only supplies a small fraction of China’s oil imports, but it is crucial as a base for energy development in Africa. The African oil producing states have relatively backward energy technologies and need foreign investment to modernize their facilities. In some cases, such as Sudan, U.S.-imposed sanctions and pressures from human rights organizations have led Western oil firms to pull out, giving Chinese companies a chance to establish a foothold. The Chinese government provides foreign assistance to complement the investment from its oil companies. For example, the Chinese have financed administrative offices in Gabon and the Ivory Coast, an airport terminal in Algeria, and communications networks in Ethiopia.[46] Chinese involvement in Latin America is small but growing, and much of the interest can be attributed to the continent’s raw materials, including oil and gas. Beijing has requested permanent observer status in the Organization of American States. In 2004 the Brazilian oil major Petrobras invited Sinopec to bid on an offshore bloc, to conduct oil exploration. Petrobras’ plan is to contribute technology, while the Sinopec Group would provide funding for the joint exploration venture. China is reported willing to contribute one billion dollars to refurbish Brazilian ports, in exchange for oil and raw materials. Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva provided political support for the project during his May 2004 visit to Beijing.[47] China is Brazil’s third largest trading partner, after the United States and Argentina. Venezuela is South America’s largest producer of crude, and PetroChina has identified Venezuela as one of the top four countries from which it expects to obtain oil over the next seven years. Venezuela under President Hugo Chavez is highly critical of the United States, although the country continues to supply well over one million barrels of oil per day to the U.S. In 2000 Venezuela signed an agreement to export 6.5 million tons per year of orimulsion, a coal substitute, for use in China’s thermal power plants and steel mills. The deal was touted as greatly expanding Venezuela’s exports of this unique form of energy. However, the Venezuelan Energy Ministry suspended orimulsion production in mid-2004 as unprofitable.[48] In June 2004, China’s ambassador to Caracas has public reiterated his country’s goal of developing large-scale energy projects with Venezuela. But this country, like Middle Eastern oil producers, is volatile, with major labor unrest cutting oil production sharply in 2002 and 2003.
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Ziegler ‘6 (Charles E. Ziegler is Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Louisville, and Director of the Institute for Democracy and Development. “THE ENERGY FACTOR IN CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY,” Journal of Chinese Political Science, 2006. http://louisville.edu/democracydevelopment/research/current-publications/the-energy-factor-in-china2019s-foreign-policy.html)-mikee
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Chinese companies have increasingly sought out business opportunities with Latin American oil producing states China can help Africa’s energy exporting states by providing direct investment and technology. In turn, China receives much-needed oil and other raw materials, in addition to a more visible presence on the continent. Chinese involvement in Latin America is growing, and much of the interest can be attributed to the continent’s oil Venezuela is South America’s largest producer of crude, and PetroChina has identified Venezuela as one of the top four countries from which it expects to obtain oil over the next seven years
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China specifically depends on Venezuela for oil.
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If the Chinese perception of energy security as a zero-sum game persists alongside suspicion of U.S. strategic intentions, Sino–U.S. relations will become more competitive. If China continues to grow richer and stronger, Beijing will develop capabilities to defend its oil supply, just as other rising powers have done. While such a development need not inevitably lead to conflict with the United States, barring changes in China’s national aspirations, Washington is likely to view greater Chinese power projection capability as threatening. The United States is engaging China in countless attempts to cooperate on energy security in such areas as clean coal and the U.S.–China Oil and Gas Industry Forum. But these initiatives seem to be having a limited impact on China’s strategic perceptions. Such efforts should continue, but Washington should be humble about its ability to change China’s policy. As long as China vies for preeminence in Asia, it will view Washington as a threat standing in the way of that ambition. Beijing’s strategies will be conceived with an “America threat” in mind. Because energy policy is closely tied to foreign policy, China will only change its approach to energy security if it accepts the current system of international politics. Beijing’s Perceptions China’s concern over energy security has become significantly more pal- pable since it became a net oil importer in 1993. But fears of containment accelerated since the United States launched the war on terror. For many Chinese strategists, the United States is boxing China in along its periphery, with a presence in Central Asia; partnerships with India, Pakistan, Japan, Korea, and Australia; and increased engagement with Vietnam and the Phil- ippines. America’s objective is said by some to be to prevent “China’s influ- ence from rising in the region.”9 Washington’s deployments and increased presence in Central and South Asia and in the Middle East have fueled the Chinese perception of a contain- ment strategy that includes impeding Chinese access to oil. Although Beijing had initially supported U.S. operations in the region, China became increasingly suspicious of the American presence once the United States began to encourage Central Asian states to undertake political reform and the color revolutions unfolded.10 The turbulence that China assumes will accompany political reform in Central Asia is perceived in Beijing to place its resource suppliers at risk and threaten Chinese Communist Party regime stability. An overwhelming reliance on Middle Eastern suppliers has compounded Chinese anxiety over energy security. In particular, American naval control of regional sea lines of communication, through which most of Beijing’s crude passes, is seen as a troubling vulnerability.11 The fact that over 80 per- cent of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) oil imports pass through the Strait of Malacca in particular has caused some alarm in the Chinese media, who refer to it as the “Malacca dilemma.”12 Zhao Nianyu of the state coun- cil–run Shanghai Institute for International Studies pointed to the Regional Military Security Initiative (RMSI)—a collective security exercise to protect the sea lanes that was proposed in 2004—as a first step by the U.S. military to “garrison the Strait” under the “guise of counterterrorist measures.”13 It should be noted that the RMSI was mischaracterized by the media and soon scrapped as sovereignty-sensitive Indonesia and Malaysia quickly stepped up antipiracy measures such as patrols and aerial surveillance. Chinese responses to an increased sense of vulnerability, as James Hol- mes and Toshi Yoshihara have documented, have included an important debate about the necessity of sea control for a nation reliant upon foreign commerce. Officers writing in Chinese military journals speak in Maha- nian terms: “[he] who controls the seas controls the world;”14 “the command of communications on the sea . . . is vital for the future and destiny of the nation;”15 “it is extremely risky for a major power such as China to become overly dependent on foreign import without adequate protection.”16 Some Chinese scholars, such as Zhang Wenmu of the Center for Strategic Stud- ies at Beijing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics, also advocate naval expansion. Zhang has bluntly stated that “[China] must build up our navy as quickly as possible” to prepare for “sea battle”—the way in which many sea- faring nations have previously resolved economic disputes.17 In some quarters of the PLA, even Taiwan is viewed in geostrategic terms because its acquisition would ease China’s breakout to the open ocean. For General Wen Zongren of the PLA Academy of Sciences, regaining control of Taiwan would be “of far reaching significance to breaking international forces’ blockade against China’s maritime security. . . . Only when we break this blockade shall we be able to talk about China’s rise. . . . China must pass through oceans and go out of the oceans in its future development.”18 The Chinese view of Washington as an obstacle to its rise reinforces mer- cantilist inclinations. Why would America not use its dominance to starve China of its economic lifeline if Washington objected to China’s behavior? America controls the sea lane and the shipping chokepoints. From Beijing’s perspective, the oil weapon is a potent one in America’s arsenal. America’s oil weapon would be especially threatening if China thought its actions would provoke a response, for example in a Taiwan, South China Sea, or Japan contingency. A China that believes Washington is intent on containment will inevitably view its energy supply lines as insecure. Given the salience of these perceptions of geopolitics, China’s energy policy is troubling but not altogether surprising. China’s Energy Policy and the Rogues To circumvent America’s perceived “control” of the energy market, Beijing is pursuing relationships with oil producers isolated by Washington. China views oil diplomacy, particularly the formation of special relation- ships with oil producers, as an important element of its energy security strategy. Sudan, Iran, and Burma are cases in point.
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Blumenthal ‘8 (Dan is a resident fellow at AEI. “Concerns with Respect to China's Energy Policy,” July 1, http://www.aei.org/files/2003/08/26/20080723_ChinaEnergyStrat.pdf)-mikee
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If the Chinese perception of energy security as a zero-sum game persists alongside suspicion of U.S. strategic intentions, Sino–U.S. relations will become more competitive The United States is engaging China in countless attempts to cooperate on energy security in such areas as clean coal But these initiatives seem to be having a limited impact on China’s strategic perceptions. Washington should be humble about its ability to change China’s policy. Because energy policy is closely tied to foreign policy, China will only change its approach to energy security if it accepts the current system of international politics To circumvent America’s perceived “control” of the energy market, Beijing is pursuing relationships with oil producers isolated by Washington. China views oil diplomacy, particularly the formation of special relation- ships with oil producers, as an important element of its energy security strateg
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China’s energy security depends on competitive oil access in regions not currently invested in by the US – the plan would freak out Chia.
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The tremendous increase in China’s appetite for energy, and the response to this by regional powers, is changing the dynamics of international politics. Over the past two decades, the growth in China’s demand for natural resources has been dramatic. Twenty years ago China was East Asia’s largest oil exporter; now it is the world’s second largest oil importer. Accord- ing to various estimates, in the last two years the increase in China’s energy demand has made up anywhere from 20–40 percent of worldwide growth. China’s expanding portion of the worldwide demand for energy and other natural resources helps to explain China’s booming presence on the international stage. China’s share of worldwide aluminum, nickel, and iron ore con- sumption, which are now each approximately 20 percent, doubled from 1990 to 2000 and will probably double again by the decade’s end.1 As China scours the globe for energy resources, it has become a new player in some important regions. It receives between 40 and 45 percent of its energy imports from the Middle East, 11 percent from Iran alone. More than 30 percent of its oil now comes from Africa. President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have worked hard to secure and protect China’s far-flung invest- ments. Through high-level diplomacy, economic aid, and military relations, Chinese leaders have increased Beijing’s influence in oil-producing states. As a latecomer to the world energy consumption game, Beijing has entered markets forbidden to Americans. Some of these relationships have strength- ened the hand of dangerous regimes looking for an alternative to the United States: for example, China’s presence in Latin American resource markets has allowed Hugo Chavez to boast that no longer will the United States be the dominant consumer of Venezuelan oil; now, “[Venezuela is] free and place[s] this oil at the disposal of the great Chinese fatherland.”2 Washington is concerned that China is underwriting dangerous and repressive dictatorships from Khartoum to Tehran. Its response, within the framework of a diplomacy that encourages China to become a “responsi- ble stakeholder” in international affairs, is to persuade China to embrace the international energy market rather than “lock-up” upstream resources. The United States is also trying to convince China that supporting dictators in oil-producing states is not conducive to the long-term stability of the inter- national system and does not even enhance Beijing’s own oil supply security. As Chinese energy investments expand around the globe, Chinese strat- egists and officials are debating options for securing China’s oil supply. This debate is unfolding in the context of Beijing’s larger debate regarding Chi- na’s strategic direction. To be sure, the Chinese energy debate has produced some policies consistent with evolving international norms. For example, Beijing is constructing a Strategic Petroleum Reserve, participating in the spot oil market, and making efforts to increase energy efficiency at home and therefore decrease demand. Still, some major elements of China’s energy security policy remain attempts to “lock-up” energy supplies at the source, develop strategic relationships with oil producers, and develop the military capability to deter hostile supply disruptions.3 The policy is informed by suspicion of the United States and regionally powerful nations including Japan and India, as well as by the economic nationalist impulse that China should have as much control as possible over its own strategic resources. Beijing perceives the United States to be opposed to key Chinese strategic objectives. China sees Washington as standing in the way of unification with Taiwan and suspects that the United States has a longer-term objective of containing China’s rise. This perception reinforces a widespread Chinese belief that the United States “controls” the oil market and will manipulate it to China’s detriment. Moreover, many in Beijing believe that the United States will use its dominance at sea to interrupt fuel supplies should China behave in a manner that displeases Washington. These views about American policy help to explain why China has not moved more toward the “liberal” end of the economic policy spectrum.4
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Blumenthal ‘8 (Dan is a resident fellow at AEI. “Concerns with Respect to China's Energy Policy,” July 1, http://www.aei.org/files/2003/08/26/20080723_ChinaEnergyStrat.pdf)-mikee
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The tremendous increase in China’s appetite for energy, and the response to this by regional powers, is changing the dynamics of international politics China’s expanding portion of the worldwide demand for energy and other natural resources helps to explain China’s booming presence on the international stage As China scours the globe for energy resources, it has become a new player in some important regions Chinese leaders have increased Beijing’s influence in oil-producing states. China’s presence in Latin American resource markets no longer will the United States be the dominant consumer of Venezuelan oil; now, “[Venezuela is] free and place[s] this oil at the disposal of the great Chinese fatherland.” Still, some major elements of China’s energy security policy remain attempts to “lock-up” energy supplies at the source, .3 The policy is informed by suspicion of the United States as well as by the economic nationalist impulse that China should have as much control as possible over its own strategic resources. Beijing perceives the United States to be opposed to key Chinese strategic objectives This perception reinforces a widespread Chinese belief that the United States “controls” the oil market and will manipulate it to China’s detriment
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China needs Latin American oil – the plan prevents their development.
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There is no other region of the world where the U.S. pursues a similar course, nor would any other regional policy and advocacy community accept it as the most appropriate foreign policy framework.4 So far, we have gotten away with it: in the absence of strategic challenges from the region, this policy approach has sufficed. But we may not have that luxury much longer. As the U.S. has continued to look beyond this hemisphere in pursuit of what are perceived to be more urgent foreign policy goals, China has entered the region aggressively and is changing the game. The expansion of Chinese trade and investment with Latin America is a new economic and commercial challenge in a previously consolidated market. On the positive side, to the extent that it has contributed to regional growth and kept financial contagion from the global economic crisis at bay, China’s engagement with the region has been beneficial. An economically growing region means that the pie is expanding for everyone, including the United States. That is a global public good, which International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde acknowledged during her late 2011 travel to the region. Nonetheless, for the U.S., individual investment opportunities and market share are being lost to China, whose share of Latin American trade grew from less than 2 percent in 2000 to 11 percent in 2010. Over the same period, the U.S. went from 53 to 39 percent of Latin American trade. To paraphrase Obama, this is not ideology—it’s math. While the U.S. remains the top trading partner overall, the challenge is readily apparent. In a post–Cold War world, where global competition is as much economic as military, the inability or unwillingness to contend for markets abroad has strategic implications. Complacently watching as established markets are captured by others is inexplicable, particularly when some of those markets were originally developed by years of patient, taxpayer-financed efforts to reduce violence, build capacity and support democracy. Just when the U.S. should be reaping the reward, others are swooping in to gain the advantage. From a foreign policy perspective, the story is even more compelling. The reality is this: China’s still-early but growing efforts in the Americas provide Latin American and Caribbean nations with additional trade and investment options that reduce U.S. leverage to promote open market, democratic values. This is not about exporting revolution or communism or any such thing. In fact, China’s efforts in the Americas are not driven by whether the potential partner is communist, populist, autocratic, or democratic. Otherwise, the Chinese would have stronger economic and political relations with Cuba and the other Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América—Tratado de Comercio de los Pueblos (Bolivarian Alternative of the Americas—ALBA) countries (primarily Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Venezuela) than with Brazil, Chile and Peru. But China goes where the natural resources and primary commodities are and, unlike the actions of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, cares little about the nature of the government that controls them. The Chinese are not necessarily looking for a political relationship, nor do they have much sympathy for ideologically driven regional leaders, some of whom they regard as buffoons. Rather, they are looking for economic benefits based on the domestic political calculus of the leadership in Beijing.
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Farnsworth ’12 (Eric Farnsworth is vice-president of the Council of the Americas in Washington DC and from 1995 to 1998 was senior adviser to the White House special envoy for the Americas. “Memo to Washington: China's Growing Presence in Latin America,” Americas Quarterly, Vol. 6, No. 1, Winter, 2012, http://www.americasquarterly.org/Farnsworth)-mikee
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hina has entered the region aggressively and is changing the game. The expansion of Chinese trade and investment with Latin America is a new economic and commercial challenge in a previously consolidated market Nonetheless U.S., individual investment opportunities and market share are being lost to China, Over the same period, the U.S. went from 53 to 39 percent of Latin American trade While the U.S. remains the top trading partner overall, the challenge is readily apparent. the inability or unwillingness to contend for markets abroad has strategic implications. Complacently watching as established markets are captured by others is inexplicable Just when the U.S. should be reaping the reward, others are swooping in to gain the advantage. China’s still-early but growing efforts in the Americas provide Latin American nations with trade and investment reduce U.S. leverage to promote open market, democratic values. . But China goes where the natural resources and cares little about the nature of the government that controls them. The Chinese are not necessarily looking for a political relationship Rather, they are looking for economic benefits based on the domestic political calculus of the leadership in Beijing
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Economic engagement is zero-sum – US involvement takes away investment opportunities and finite markets from China that they need for growth.
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Still, some major elements of China’s energy security policy remain attempts to “lock-up” energy supplies at the source, develop strategic relationships with oil producers, and develop the military capability to deter hostile supply disruptions.3 The policy is informed by suspicion of the United States and regionally powerful nations including Japan and India, as well as by the economic nationalist impulse that China should have as much control as possible over its own strategic resources. Beijing perceives the United States to be opposed to key Chinese strategic objectives. China sees Washington as standing in the way of unification with Taiwan and suspects that the United States has a longer-term objective of containing China’s rise. This perception reinforces a widespread Chinese belief that the United States “controls” the oil market and will manipulate it to China’s detriment. Moreover, many in Beijing believe that the United States will use its dominance at sea to interrupt fuel supplies should China behave in a manner that displeases Washington. These views about American policy help to explain why China has not moved more toward the “liberal” end of the economic policy spectrum.4
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Blumenthal ‘8 (Dan is a resident fellow at AEI. “Concerns with Respect to China's Energy Policy,” July 01, 2008, http://www.aei.org/files/2003/08/26/20080723_ChinaEnergyStrat.pdf)
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Still, some major elements of China’s energy security policy remain attempts to “lock-up” energy supplies at the source, develop strategic relationships with oil producers, and develop the military capability to deter hostile supply disruptions.3 The policy is informed by suspicion of the United States as well as by the economic nationalist impulse that China should have as much control as possible over its own strategic resources. Beijing perceives the United States to be opposed to key Chinese strategic objectives This perception reinforces a widespread Chinese belief that the United States “controls” the oil market and will manipulate it to China’s detriment
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China perceives any action as competitive because of distrust and suspicion.
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Latin America’s Strategic Importance to China. As China’s economy has boomed, racking up continuous growth rates of 9%, and its population has become increasingly urbanized, the country’s need for raw materials has skyrocketed. The need was exacerbated by the decision to become a fully motorized consumer economy, meaning that in short order China would require in the order of twice of its present level of consumption of petroleum. It is relevant to note that today China is the third largest manufacturer of automobiles in the world. Therefore, it is not surprising that according to the Washington Post, Beijing has estimated that by 2020 the country would need 600 million tons of crude oil annually. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that in a report in February’s issue of Poder magazine, “China has displaced the United States as the world’s largest consumer of most industrial raw materials, including copper, aluminum, nickel, platinum, and iron ore.” An Embarrassment of Riches. Latin America offers in abundance many of those key resources now coveted by China, and its history and experience of serving as a raw-goods-exporting economic enclave for the industrialized metropolis – be it Spain, the U.K. or the U.S., has been at different stages of its history – further enhances the region’s appeal to Beijing. In its eagerness to secure access to the Latin American resources it so prizes, the PRC has skillfully wielded its economic “soft power” to convince regional governments to amicably open up their countries to Chinese penetrations. Not that much persuasion was necessary, considering the desire of countries like Brazil to find an outside foreign partner capable of counterbalancing the U.S.
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Lettieri ‘5 (Michael, research associate, "Bush goes to Beijing, China goes to Latin America" Council on Hemispheric Affairs -- November 14 -- www.coha.org/bush-goes-to-beijing-china-goes-to-latin-america/)
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Latin America’s Strategic Importance to China. China’s need for raw materials has skyrocketed China has displaced the United States as the world’s largest consumer of most industrial raw materials Latin America offers in abundance many of those key resources now coveted by China, and its history and experience of serving as a raw-goods-exporting economic enclave for the industrialized metropolis – further enhances the region’s appeal to Beijing. In its eagerness to secure access to the Latin American resources it so prizes, the PRC has skillfully wielded its economic “soft power” to convince regional governments to amicably open up their countries to Chinese penetrations.
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Chinese influence key to secure Latin American resources – key to growth.
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In 2001, Gordon Chang authored a global bestseller "The Coming Collapse of China." To suggest that the world’s largest nation of 1.3 billion people is on the brink of collapse is understandably for many, a deeply unnerving theme. And many seasoned “China Hands” rejected Chang’s thesis outright. In a very real sense, they were of course right. China’s expansion has continued over the last six years without a hitch. After notching up a staggering 10.7 percent growth last year, it is now the 4th largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of $2.68trn. Yet there are two Chinas that concern us here; the 800 million who live in the cities, coastal and southern regions and the 500 million who live in the countryside and are mainly engaged in agriculture. The latter – which we in the West hear very little about – are still very poor and much less happy. Their poverty and misery do not necessarily spell an impending cataclysm – after all, that is how they have always have been. But it does illustrate the inequity of Chinese monetary policy. For many years, the Chinese yen has been held at an artificially low value to boost manufacturing exports. This has clearly worked for one side of the economy, but not for the purchasing power of consumers and the rural poor, some of who are getting even poorer. The central reason for this has been the inability of Chinese monetary policy to adequately support both Chinas. Meanwhile, rural unrest in China is on the rise – fuelled not only by an accelerating income gap with the coastal cities, but by an oft-reported appropriation of their land for little or no compensation by the state. According to Professor David B. Smith, one of the City’s most accurate and respected economists in recent years, potentially far more serious though is the impact that Chinese monetary policy could have on many Western nations such as the UK. Quite simply, China’s undervalued currency has enabled Western governments to maintain artificially strong currencies, reduce inflation and keep interest rates lower than they might otherwise be. We should therefore be very worried about how vulnerable Western economic growth is to an upward revaluation of the Chinese yuan. Should that revaluation happen to appease China’s rural poor, at a stroke, the dollar, sterling and the euro would quickly depreciate, rates in those currencies would have to rise substantially and the yield on government bonds would follow suit. This would add greatly to the debt servicing cost of budget deficits in the USA, the UK and much of euro land. A reduction in demand for imported Chinese goods would quickly entail a decline in China’s economic growth rate. That is alarming. It has been calculated that to keep China’s society stable – ie to manage the transition from a rural to an urban society without devastating unemployment - the minimum growth rate is 7.2 percent. Anything less than that and unemployment will rise and the massive shift in population from the country to the cities becomes unsustainable. This is when real discontent with communist party rule becomes vocal and hard to ignore. It doesn’t end there. That will at best bring a global recession. The crucial point is that communist authoritarian states have at least had some success in keeping a lid on ethnic tensions – so far. But when multi-ethnic communist countries fall apart from economic stress and the implosion of central power, history suggests that they don’t become successful democracies overnight. Far from it. There’s a very real chance that China might go the way of Yugoloslavia or the Soviet Union – chaos, civil unrest and internecine war. In the very worst case scenario, a Chinese government might seek to maintain national cohesion by going to war with Taiwan – whom America is pledged to defend.
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Lewis ‘8 (Dan, Research Director – Economic Research Council, “The Nightmare of a Chinese Economic Collapse,” World Finance, 5/13, http://www.worldfinance.com/news/home/finalbell/article117.html)
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a decline in China’s economic growth rate is alarming It has been calculated that to keep China’s society stable the minimum growth rate is 7.2 percent. Anything less than that and unemployment will rise and the massive shift in population from the country to the cities becomes unsustainable. This is when real discontent with communist party rule becomes vocal and hard to ignore. That will at best bring a global recession But when multi-ethnic communist countries fall apart from economic stress and the implosion of central power, history suggests that they don’t become successful democracies overnight. There’s a very real chance that China might go the way of Yugoloslavia or the Soviet Union – chaos, civil unrest and internecine war. a Chinese government might seek to maintain national cohesion by going to war with Taiwan – whom America is pledged to defend.
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Chinese growth prevents global economic collapse & war over Taiwan.
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The greatest danger both to U.S.-China relations and to American power itself is probably not that China will rise too far, too fast; it is that the current crisis might end China's growth miracle. In the worst-case scenario, the turmoil in the international economy will plunge China into a major economic downturn. The Chinese financial system will implode as loans to both state and private enterprises go bad. Millions or even tens of millions of Chinese will be unemployed in a country without an effective social safety net. The collapse of asset bubbles in the stock and property markets will wipe out the savings of a generation of the Chinese middle class. The political consequences could include dangerous unrest--and a bitter climate of anti-foreign feeling that blames others for China's woes. (Think of Weimar Germany, when both Nazi and communist politicians blamed the West for Germany's economic travails.) Worse, instability could lead to a vicious cycle, as nervous investors moved their money out of the country, further slowing growth and, in turn, fomenting ever-greater bitterness. Thanks to a generation of rapid economic growth, China has so far been able to manage the stresses and conflicts of modernization and change; nobody knows what will happen if the growth stops.
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Mead ‘9 (Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, “Only Makes You Stronger,” The New Republic, 2/4/9, http://www.tnr.com/story_print.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8)
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The greatest danger to U.S.-China relations and American power itself is not that China will rise too far, too fast; it is that the crisis might end China's growth turmoil will plunge China into a major economic downturn. The Chinese financial system will implode Millions or even tens of millions of Chinese will be unemployed in a country without an effective social safety net collapse of asset bubbles will wipe out the savings of a generation of the middle class. The political consequences could include dangerous unrest--and anti-foreign feeling that blames others for China's woes Think of Weimar Germany instability could lead to a vicious cycle further slowing growth and, in turn, fomenting ever-greater bitterness. China has so far been able to manage the stresses and conflicts of modernization and change; nobody knows what will happen if the growth stops
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Alternative to robust Chinese influence is internal conflict
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China, East Asia and the world The underlying argument in this section is that there is a strong link between the global standing of a major power and the way that power relates to the other states in its home region. As a general rule, the status of great power, and more so superpower, requires not only that the state concerned be able and willing to project its political influence beyond its immediate region, but that it also be able in some sense to manage, and perhaps lead, its region (Buzan and Wæver, 2003). The U.S. clearly does this in North America, and more arguably for the Western hemisphere as a whole, and the EU does it in Europe. The Soviet Union did it from 1945 to 1989, and the possible inability of Russia to do it (and its desperation to do so) explain the current question marks around its status. India's failure to do it is a big part of what denies it the great-power recognition it craves. During the Cold War, and up to a point still, Japan could exploit its political geography to detach itself from much of Asian politics, and float free as a kind of economic great power. China does not have that kind of geopolitical option. Like Russia and India, it cannot escape regional politics. China's global standing thus depends crucially on what kind of relationship it has with its neighbours. If China is able to reassert some form of hegemony over twenty-first century Asia - getting most or all of its neighbours to bandwagon with it - then its global standing will be hugely enhanced. But if China inspires fear in its neighbours - causing them to balance against it - then like India, and possibly Russia, it will be locked into its region, and its global standing will be diminished. Since the U.S. is strongly present in Asia, its influence also plays into this equation. Indeed, if China is at odds with its neighbours then its position will be worse than that of Russia and India. In their immediate regions, those two have only to deal with powers much smaller than themselves. In China's region there are several very substantial powers whose antagonism would be a real burden. The importance of regional relations for a major power's global standing is easily shown by two extreme scenarios for China's future. In the first, China's development provides it with the strength and the identity to become the central hub of Asia, in the process largely displacing the U.S.. It projects an acceptable political and economic image, and its neighbours bandwagon with it out of some combination of fear, prudence, admiration and hope for economic advantage. Its economy becomes the regional locomotive, and in political and military terms it is acknowledged as primus inter pares by Japan, Korea and the ASEAN states. Japan takes up a similar subordinate relationship with China to that it now has with the U.S., and China is able to use the regional institutions created by ASEAN rather as the U.S. uses the Organization of American States. If the other Asian states fear to antagonize China, and don't balance against it, then China is both free to play a larger global role, and is insulated against pressure from the West. And if China succeeds in positioning itself at the centre of an Asian economy, then it can claim 'locomotive' status along with the U.S. and the EU in the global economy. In the second scenario, China inspires fear in its neighbours. Japan's alliance with the U.S. deepens, and India, Southeast Asia, Japan and possibly Russia coordinate their defences against China, probably with U.S. support. Under the first set of conditions, China acquires a stable regional base which gives it both the status and the capability to play seriously on the global political stage. Under the second set of conditions, China may still be the biggest power in East Asia, but its ability to play on the global stage would be seriously curtailed. The task for this section is thus to examine the social and material forces in play and ask how they might support or block a move in either of these directions. Is it likely that China will acquire hegemony in East Asia, or is its rise to power more likely to produce U.S.-backed regional balancing against it? I will examine the factors playing into this question on three levels: China's capabilities and the trajectory of its internal development; China's relations with its Asian neighbours; and its relationships with the U.S. and the other great powers. China's capabilities and the trajectory of its internal development Debates about China's capability and prospects for development can be placed within a matrix formed by two variables: • Does China get stronger (because its economic development continues successfully) or weaker (because its development runs into obstacles, or triggers socio-political instability)? • Does China become a malign, aggressive, threatening force in international society (because it becomes hypernationalist or fascist), or does it become more benign and cooperative (because economic development brings internal democratization and liberalization)? If China's development falters and it becomes weak, then it will neither dominate its region nor project itself on to the global stage. Whether it is then politically benign or malign will be a much less pressing issue in terms of how others respond to it in the traditional politico-military security domain. What could happen in this scenario is that a breakdown in the socio-political order, perhaps triggered by economic or environmental troubles, might well trigger large-scale migrations, political fragmentations, or wider economic crises that would pose serious threats to China's neighbours. A major political collapse in China could also pose threats at the global level, via the scenario of a failed nuclear weapon state. But, if China becomes strong, then the malign or benign question matters a great deal. The benign and malign options could be alternative paths, or could occur in sequence, with a malign phase giving way to a benign one, as happened with Germany and Japan during their comparable phases of industrialization. The likelihood of just such a sequence was what underpinned Gerry's concern to promote constrainment.
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Buzan and Foot, 04 – professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science; professor of International Relations at St. Anthony College, (Barry and Rosemary, “Does China Matter? A Reassessment: Essays in Memory of Gerald Segal”, ed., Questia, p. 145-147, USC Libraries)//JK
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China does not have that kind of geopolitical option. China's global standing depends on what kind of relationship it has with its neighbours. If China is able to reassert some form of hegemony over twenty-first century Asia - getting most or all of its neighbours to bandwagon with it - then its global standing will be hugely enhanced. if China inspires fear in its neighbours - causing them to balance against it - then like India, and possibly Russia, it will be locked into its region, and its global standing will be diminished if China is at odds with its neighbours then its position will be worse than that of Russia and India. In China's region there are several very substantial powers whose antagonism would be a real burden China's development provides it with the strength and the identity to become the central hub of Asia, in the process largely displacing the U.S.. It projects an acceptable political and economic image, and its neighbours bandwagon with it out of some combination of fear, prudence, admiration and hope for economic advantage. Its economy becomes the regional locomotive, and in political and military terms it is acknowledged as primus inter pares by Japan, Korea and the ASEAN states. If the other Asian states fear to antagonize China, and don't balance against it, then China is both free to play a larger global role, and is insulated against pressure from the West. And if China succeeds in positioning itself at the centre of an Asian economy, then it can claim 'locomotive' status along with the U.S. and the EU in the global economy. China inspires fear in its neighbours. Japan's alliance with the U.S. deepens, and India, Southeast Asia, Japan and possibly Russia coordinate their defences against China, probably with U.S. support. China acquires a stable regional base which gives it both the status and the capability to play seriously on the global political stage. China may still be the biggest power in East Asia, but its ability to play on the global stage would be seriously curtailed. If China's development falters and it becomes weak, then it will neither dominate its region nor project itself on to the global stage. What could happen in this scenario is that a breakdown in the socio-political order, perhaps triggered by economic or environmental troubles, might well trigger large-scale migrations, political fragmentations, or wider economic crises that would pose serious threats to China's neighbours. A major political collapse in China could also pose threats at the global level, via the scenario of a failed nuclear weapon state.
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Chinese economic growth and competitiveness is key to prevent global economic collapse and nuclear conflict
| 6,227 | 107 | 2,600 | 1,031 | 15 | 431 | 0.014549 | 0.418041 |
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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North Asia looks like the world’s most volatile region at the moment. An assertive China is working to push America aside, grab territory from an arc of nations from India in the south to South Korea in the north, and close off the South China Sea so that it becomes an internal Chinese lake. Last month, while Chinese leaders talked about enhancing cooperation in the region, two Chinese vessels attacked a Vietnamese fishing boat, setting it on fire. There are many reasons for Beijing new assertiveness, but one stands out: slowing GDP growth, evident since the early summer of 2011. The economic problems in particular have created a dangerous dynamic, trapping China in a self-reinforcing—and self-defeating—loop. In this loop, the slumping economy is leading to a crisis of legitimacy, the legitimacy crisis is causing Beijing to fall back on nationalism and increase friction with its neighbors, and the increased friction is aggravating the country’s economic difficulties. Caught in a trap of their own making, Beijing leaders will continue to blame foreigners for the problems evident in Chinese society and then lash out, as they did in September against Japan, over the uninhabited Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. And as they lash out, they are making their problems worse. The anti-Japan protests in China last fall, for instance, are resulting in Japanese industry reducing its commitment to China by shifting investments into Southeast Asia, as Nissan announced at the end of October. That, in turn, could push the Chinese economy past the tipping point. Moreover, the North Korean crisis, which Beijing has been aggravating behind the scenes, is not helping the Chinese economy either. Commerce between China and the North seems largely unaffected, as various reports from the border crossings indicate. But the Kim regime in Pyongyang seems to be targeting the South Korean economy with its threats, and that is beginning to have some effect. “The North Koreans are now using the propaganda in an extreme form to try to damage foreign direct investments into South Korea,” says Tom Coyner, author of “Doing Business in Korea,” to the New York Times. “They are, in a sense at this point, winning in an asymmetrical psychological warfare, attacking the economic strength of South Korea.” And as the Times points out, South Koreans know “their globalized economy has much more to lose than the North’s isolated and already highly sanctioned economy.” Yet Pyongyang leaders may be taking down more than just the South. In an interconnected world, they may be damaging the other networked economies in the region, those of Japan and China. All three economies—South Korea, Japan, and China—have integrated themselves into the others, for instance making the others part of the global supply chains of their companies. In these circumstances, it is unlikely that only South Korea will be damaged. The South is China’s third-largest trading partner, and it is China’s fifth-largest source of foreign direct investment. Trade between China and South Korea increased 40 times in 20 years. It rose 18.6% in 2011 to $245.6 billion, a record high. So South Korea’s troubles will eventually becomes China’s. Ultimately, Beijing’s strategy of making itself a danger to its neighbors cannot be good for its economy. Worse, China is making itself an adversary of its most important customer, the United States. Last month, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper elevated cyber attacks above terrorism as the most serious national security threat. China, of course, is America’s number one cyber adversary. Being named your biggest customer’s biggest threat is not smart strategy.
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Chang, 4/14 (Gordon G., Contributor at Forbes, “The Biggest Threat To China's Economy” 2013, http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2013/04/14/the-biggest-threat-to-chinas-economy/)
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North Asia looks like the world’s most volatile region at the moment. An assertive China is working to push America aside, grab territory and close off the South China Sea There are many reasons for Beijing new assertiveness, but one stands out: slowing GDP growth The economic problems in particular have created a dangerous dynamic, trapping China in a self-reinforcing—and self-defeating—loop the slumping economy is leading to a crisis of legitimacy, the legitimacy crisis is causing Beijing to fall back on nationalism and increase friction Beijing leaders will continue to blame foreigners for the problems evident in Chinese society and then lash out And as they lash out, they are making their problems worse the North Korean crisis, which Beijing has been aggravating behind the scenes Worse, China is making itself an adversary of its most important customer, the United States. Last month, Director of National Intelligence elevated cyber attacks above terrorism as the most serious national security threat. China, of course, is America’s number one cyber adversary.
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Slow growth causes nationalist lash-outs, regional conflicts, economic collapse, and cyber attacks on the US.
| 3,696 | 110 | 1,078 | 591 | 15 | 168 | 0.025381 | 0.284264 |
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China in the Western Hemisphere We see two major trends in China's engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean: first and foremost, growing trade and investment are necessary to fuel China's own rapid domestic development. Second, China wants to match its growing economic strength with political influence in order to advance its own national agenda. China's Economic Influence China is the world's seventh-largest economy (with an economy about the same size as Italy's), the world's third-largest trading nation, and a major destination for foreign-direct investment from around the world. Its economy has grown at over 9.5% per year for the past twenty-five years. Rapid growth and development are significant sources of legitimacy for the Chinese Communist Party. To sustain that growth, China has increasingly engaged with the rest of the world, including with Latin America, to secure inputs it needs and markets for its surging exports. China's demand for Latin American goods has helped fuel economic growth in many countries. At the same time, however, China's exports, especially in textiles, apparel, and shoes, pose stiff competition for some Latin American and Caribbean producers, primarily in third-country markets. -- China's imports from Latin America reached $22 billion in 2004 and are up 16% in the first half of this year. Primary imports from Latin America include metal ores, soybeans, and copper. -- China's exports to Latin America reached $18 billion in 2004 and were up an additional 32% in the first half of this year. China's top exports to Latin America include machinery, electronics and apparel. -- While it is difficult to attribute what portion of overall economic growth in Latin America is attributable to particular factors, it is clear that China's boom has expanded markets for Latin exports, and thus contributes to economic growth. For example, the value of Chile's net exports to China more than doubled in 2004, increasing by about $1 billion in a $94 billion economy. -- China is an important new investor in the region as it searches for resources. Still, Chinese investment is rather small, at approximately $8.3 billion at the end of 2004, according to Chinese data. And the lion's share of that sum consists of investments in tax haven countries, such as the Cayman Islands and British Virgin Islands. However, deals for future investments, primarily in infrastructure and extractive sectors, could be a significant boost to the region if realized. -- China is now the world's second-largest consumer of petroleum, and has become a net importer of oil. We believe that securing reliable access to petroleum products from Hemisphere is an important element of China's engagement in the region, especially with Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador.
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Shapiro ‘5 (Charles S., U.S. Department of State, “Chinese Engagement in Latin America Should Enhance U.S.,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Western Hemisphere, September 21, 2005, http://archives.uruguay.usembassy.gov/usaweb/paginas/527-00EN.shtml)
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growing trade and investment are necessary to fuel China's own rapid domestic development. China is the world's seventh-largest economy Its economy has grown at over 9.5% per year for the past twenty-five years. Rapid growth and development are significant sources of legitimacy for the Chinese Communist Party. To sustain that growth, China has increasingly engaged with the rest of the world, including with Latin America, to secure inputs it needs and markets for its surging exports. China's demand for Latin American goods has helped fuel economic growth in many countries it is clear that China's boom has expanded markets for Latin exports, and thus contributes to economic growth China is now the world's second-largest consumer of petroleum, and has become a net importer of oil.
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China engagement in Latin America key to growth & CCP legitimacy.
| 2,795 | 66 | 788 | 442 | 11 | 125 | 0.024887 | 0.282805 |
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Over the past two decades, China’s industrialization has reordered the allocation of capital and resources across the globe. The better Americans are able understand this phenomenon, the fewer reasons they may have to feel threatened by it. Perhaps Clem Sunter, the noted South African futurologist, described it best: Britain put 30 million people through an industrial revolution in the mid-19th century, and had its colonies to draw its raw materials from. America put 150 million people through an industrial revolution at the turn of the 20th century and had its own raw materials. Today China is putting 1.3 billion people through an industrial revolution with neither colonies nor substantial indigenous resources besides coal.1 With its abundant supply of cheap labor and urgent need to industrialize, China seemed almost destined to become the world’s manufacturing hub, and subsequently, its engine for growth. Factoring in an urbanization rate that this year passed 50 percent, along with a burgeoning middle class, China’s need for resources becomes obvious.2 Accordingly, China is now the destination for a massive share of global raw materials. The domestic political pressures within China are also well known. China needs reliable and continued economic growth to appease a growing middle class which is not yet politically vocal, but may turn out to be if the “...tacit bargain in which well-off city-dwellers have traded political choice for fast-growing prosperity”3 unravels. Chinese policymakers certainly want to avoid a jasmine revolution.
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Oxley ’12 (Lieutenant Commander Audry, “Dragon Training at Home Exploring the Possibilities for Collaboration Between the U.S. and Chinese Navies in the Western Hemisphere,” Foreign Policy at BROOKINGS, 21st CENTURY DEFENSE INITIATIVE POLICY PAPER, 10 July 2012)
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Britain put 30 million people through an industrial revolution and had its colonies to draw its raw materials from. America put 150 million people through an industrial revolution and had its own Today China is putting 1.3 billion people through an industrial revolution with neither China seemed almost destined to become the world’s manufacturing hub, and subsequently, its engine for growth. China’s need for resources becomes obvious.2 Accordingly, China is now the destination for a massive share of global raw materials The domestic political pressures within China are also well known. China needs reliable and continued economic growth to appease a growing middle class which is not yet politically vocal, but may turn out to be if the “...tacit bargain in which well-off city-dwellers have traded political choice for fast-growing prosperity unravels Chinese policymakers certainly want to avoid a jasmine revolution.
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The plan dooms CCP credibility
| 1,562 | 30 | 926 | 238 | 5 | 141 | 0.021008 | 0.592437 |
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Berkeley (CNDI)
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1,798 |
Blocking the Consolidation of U.S. Influence in the Region and Its Institutions. The rise of China is intimately tied to the global economy through trade, financial, and information flows, each of which is highly dependent on global institutions and cooperation. Because of this, some within the PRC leadership see the country's sustained growth and development, and thus the stability of the regime, threatened if an actor such as the United States is able to limit that cooperation or block global institutions from supporting Chinese interests. In Latin America, China's attainment of observer status in the OAS in 2004 and its acceptance into the IADB in 2009 were efforts to obtain a seat at the table in key regional institutions, and to keep them from being used "against" Chinese interests. In addition, the PRC has leveraged hopes of access to Chinese markets by Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica to secure bilateral free trade agreements, whose practical effect is to move Latin America away from a U.S.-dominated trading block (the Free Trade Area of the Americas) in which the PRC would have been disadvantaged. Finally, the PRC benefits from the challenges posed to the dominance of the United States in the region by regimes such as Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia, and its trade and investment with those regimes help to keep them economically viable. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, the PRC is careful to avoid association with the anti-U.S. rhetoric and projects of those regimes, which could damage its more strategically important relationship with the United States.
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Ellis, ’11 (R. Evans is an Assistant Professor of National Security Studies in the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University. “Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case Study,” JFQ, Issue 60, 1st Quarter 2011, http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese-soft-power-latin-america.html)
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the PRC leadership see the country's sustained growth and development, and thus the stability of the regime, threatened if the United States is able to limit or block institutions from supporting Chinese interests. In Latin America, China's status in the OAS and its acceptance into the IADB and to keep them from being used "against" Chinese interests. the PRC has leveraged hopes to move Latin America away from a U.S.-dominated trading block Finally, the PRC benefits from the challenges posed to the dominance of the United States in the region by regimes such as Venezuela, and its trade and investment with those regimes help to keep them economically viable
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b. Perceived influence key to regime stability – US involvement threatens it.
| 1,581 | 78 | 664 | 254 | 12 | 109 | 0.047244 | 0.429134 |
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This article examines Chinese soft power in the specific context of Latin America. The United States has long exercised significant influence in the region, while the PRC has historically been relatively absent. Nonetheless, in recent years, China's economic footprint in Latin America, and its attempts to engage the region politically, culturally, and otherwise, has expanded enormously. Understanding the nature and limits of PRC soft power in Latin America casts light on Chinese soft power in other parts of the world as well. In general, the bases of Chinese soft power differ from those of the United States, leading analysts to underestimate that power when they compare the PRC to the United States on those factors that are the sources of U.S. influence, such as the affinity of the world's youth for American music, media, and lifestyle, the widespread use of the English language in business and technology, or the number of elites who have learned their professions in U.S. institutions. It is also important to clarify that soft power is based on perceptions and emotion (that is, inferences), and not necessarily on objective reality. Although China's current trade with and investment position in Latin America are still limited compared to those of the United States,3 its influence in the region is based not so much on the current size of those activities, but rather on hopes or fears in the region of what it could be in the future. Because perception drives soft power, the nature of the PRC impact on each country in Latin America is shaped by its particular situation, hopes, fears, and prevailing ideology. The "Bolivarian socialist" regime of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela sees China as a powerful ally in its crusade against Western "imperialism," while countries such as Peru, Chile, and Colombia view the PRC in more traditional terms as an important investor and trading partner within the context of global free market capitalism.The core of Chinese soft power in Latin America, as in the rest of the world, is the widespread perception that the PRC, because of its sustained high rates of economic growth and technology development, will present tremendous business opportunities in the future, and will be a power to be reckoned with globally. In general, this perception can be divided into seven areas: hopes for future access to Chinese markets hopes for future Chinese investment influence of Chinese entities and infrastructure in Latin America hopes for the PRC to serve as a counterweight to the United States and Western institutions China as a development model affinity for Chinese culture and work ethic China as "the wave of the future." In each of these cases, the soft power of the PRC can be identified as operating through distinct sets of actors: the political leadership of countries, the business community, students and youth, and the general population.
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Ellis ’11 (R. Evans is an Assistant Professor of National Security Studies in the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University. “Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case Study,” JFQ, Issue 60, 1st Quarter 2011, http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese-soft-power-latin-america.html)
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Chinese soft power in the specific context of Latin America China's economic footprint in Latin America has expanded enormously the bases of Chinese soft power differ from those of the United States, leading analysts to underestimate that power when they compare the PRC to the United States on those factors that are the sources of U.S. influence that soft power is based on perceptions Although China's current trade with and investment position in Latin America are still limited compared to those of the United States its influence in the region is based not so much on the current size of those activities, but rather on hopes or fears in the region of what it could be in the future perception drives soft power the nature of the PRC impact on each country in Latin America is shaped by its particular situation, hopes, fears, and prevailing ideology he core of Chinese soft power in Latin America, is the widespread perception that the PRC will present tremendous business opportunities in the future, and will be a power to be reckoned with globally this perception can be divided into access to Chinese markets Chinese investment influence of Chinese entities and infrastructure in Latin America hopes for the PRC to serve as a counterweight to the United States China as a development model affinity for Chinese culture China as "the wave of the future the soft power of the PRC can be identified as operating through distinct sets of actors: the political leadership of countries, the business community, students and youth, and the general population
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a. Chinese economic engagement key to their soft power.
| 2,902 | 56 | 1,562 | 472 | 9 | 261 | 0.019068 | 0.552966 |
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